The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Surgical management of chronic proximal hamstring tendinopathy in athletes: a 2 to 11 years of follow-up.

PubMed

Benazzo, Francesco; Marullo, Matteo; Zanon, Giacomo; Indino, Cristian; Pelillo, Francesco

2013-06-01

Proximal hamstring tendinopathy typically afflicts athletes. The poor knowledge of this pathology can lead to late diagnosis and late treatment, which in chronic cases could be challenging. Surgical treatment could resolve the symptoms and could permit the return to full sport activity also in chronic cases. We retrospectively evaluated 17 high-level athletes surgically treated for proximal hamstring tendinopathy. Symptoms lasted for an average of 23 months and were resistive to conservative treatment. The follow-up period averaged 71 months. Return to run without pain occurred at a mean of 2.4 months (range 1-4) after surgery. All patients returned to sports at their pre-symptom level at a mean of 4.4 months after surgery. Results were excellent in 15 patients (88 %) and good in two patients (12 %). No results were fair or poor. Surgical treatment to manage chronic proximal hamstring tendinopathy in high-level athletes showed excellent results in terms of relief from symptoms and return to previous sport level.

The effect of intraoperative hypotension on the outcomes of initial hybrid palliation for single ventricle congenital heart disease: an historical cohort study.

PubMed

Koziol, James; Gertler, Ralph; Manlhiot, Cedric; McCrindle, Brian; Holtby, Helen; Caldarone, Christopher A; Taylor, Katherine

2013-05-01

The "hybrid procedure" is an alternative surgical palliation strategy for single ventricle congenital heart disease. The purported benefit is improved cognitive ability secondary to avoidance of cardiopulmonary bypass in the neonatal period when neuronal apoptosis is greater. It is unknown whether survival is improved after this procedure. Intraoperative hypotension is common in these patients, and we hypothesized that this hypotension was associated with mortality or morbidity. We reviewed the records of 58/58 patients undergoing a first-stage hybrid procedure from 2004 to 2010 in a tertiary pediatric academic centre. Risk factors for poor outcome and the association between intraoperative hypotension and morbidity or mortality were investigated. Average preoperative arterial blood pressure (ABP) [systolic/diastolic presented as mean (standard deviation)] were 68 (12.7) / 38 (9.4) mmHg. Post-induction ABP was 65 (15.2) / 37 (8.6) mmHg. The average intraoperative nadir of ABP was 45 (7.0) / 26 (4.8) mmHg. On return to the intensive care unit (ICU), the average ABP was 69 (13.7) / 38 (11.6) mmHg. The nadir lasted longer than ten minutes in 32/58 patients. The mortality at 48 hr, 60 days, and 12 months was 3/58 (5%), 10/58 (17%), and 15/58 (26%), respectively. Six patients returned to the ICU on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). There was a weak statistical correlation between the average mean and diastolic BP pre-induction and changes of > 20% in systolic and diastolic BP during the case. In this patient cohort, we can show an association between short periods of intraoperative hypotension and mortality or return to the ICU on ECMO, but the importance of this is not certain.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Effects of hot-iron branding on heart rate, breathing rate and behaviour of anaesthetised Steller sea lions.

PubMed

Walker, K A; Mellish, J E; Weary, D M

2011-10-01

This study assessed the heart rate, breathing rate and behavioural responses of 12 juvenile Steller sea lions during hot-iron branding under isoflurane anaesthesia. Physiological and behavioural measures were recorded in four periods: baseline (five minutes), sham branding (one minute), branding (approximately 2.7 minutes) and postbranding (five minutes). No difference in heart rate was noted from baseline to sham branding, but heart rate increased from mean (sem) 78.3 (2.4) bpm in the baseline period to 85.6 (2.5) bpm in the branding period. Heart rate remained elevated in the postbranding period, averaging 84.7 (2.5) bpm. Breathing rate averaged 2.5 (1.0) breaths/minute in the baseline and sham branding periods increased to 8.9 (1.0) breaths/minute during branding, but returned to baseline by the postbranding period. Behaviourally, half of the sea lions exhibited trembling and head and shoulder movements during branding.

Do employee health management programs work?

PubMed

Serxner, Seth; Gold, Daniel; Meraz, Angela; Gray, Ann

2009-01-01

Current peer review literature clearly documents the economic return and Return-on-Investment (ROI) for employee health management (EHM) programs. These EHM programs are defined as: health promotion, self-care, disease management, and case management programs. The evaluation literature for the sub-set of health promotion and disease management programs is examined in this article for specific evidence of the level of economic return in medical benefit cost reduction or avoidance. The article identifies the methodological challenges associated with determination of economic return for EHM programs and summarizes the findings from 23 articles that included 120 peer review study results. The article identifies the average ROI and percent health plan cost impact to be expected for both types of EHM programs, the expected time period for its occurrence, and caveats related to its measurement.

[Estimation of the asymptomatic latent period of alveolar hydatidosis in patients infected in foreign endemic areas].

PubMed

Doi, Rikuo

2007-03-01

Alveolar hydatidosis (AH) is a parasitic disease with an extremely long latent period which has an important role in the endemic of human AH. The individual and average latent periods of human AH were estimated from the case histories of 19 male patients who were infected in foreign endemic areas and diagnosed surgically and pathologically as having AH after returning to Honshu, mainland of Japan. The beginning (A) and the end (C) of stay in foreign endemic areas of AH, and the midpoint (B) between (A) and (C), the time of onset of symptoms (D) and death (E) of AH were determined in the case reports. The period (D-B) from the midpoint (B) to the onset of symptoms (D) was considered as an individual latent period of AH, and the average latent period was estimated from D-B periods. The individual latent periods ranged from 3 to 44 years, and the average was 20 +/- 10 (mean +/- SD) years in the 19 cases. The average latent period was longer in 7 surviving cases (26 +/- 12) than in 12 fatal cases (16 +/- 7) at the publication of the case reports, but there was no statistically significant difference between them. The estimated latent period in this report was very close to that by Doi et al. (2000), and the traditional 5-15 years should be changed to 7-35 years.

Economic feasibility analysis of conventional and dedicated energy crop production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, R.G.; Langemeier, M.R.; Krehbiel, L.R.

Economic feasibilities (net return per acre) associated with conventional agricultural crop production versus that of dedicated bioenergy crop (herbaceous energy crops) were investigated for northeastern Kansas. Conventional agricultural crops examined were corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum and alfalfa and dedicated herbaceous energy crops included big bluestem/indiangrass, switchgrass, eastern gamagrass, brome, fescue and cane hay. Costs, prices and government program information from public and private sources were used to project the net return per acre over a six-year period beginning in 1997. Three soil productivity levels (low, average and high), which had a direct effect on the net return per acre, weremore » used to model differences in expected yield. In all three soil productivity cases, big bluestem/indiangrass, switchgrass and brome hay provided a higher net return per acre versus conventional crops grown on both program and non-program acres. Eastern gamagrass, fescue hay and cane hay had returns that were similar or less than returns provided by conventional crops.« less

Long-term changes in the density and structure of the human hip and spine after long-duration spaceflight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana Carpenter, R.; LeBlanc, Adrian D.; Evans, Harlan; Sibonga, Jean D.; Lang, Thomas F.

2010-07-01

To determine the long-term effects of long-duration spaceflight, we measured bone mineral density and bone geometry of International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers using quantitative computed tomography (QCT) before launch, immediately upon their return, one year after return, and 2-4.5 years after return from the ISS. Eight crew members (7 male, 1 female, mean age 45±4 years at start of mission) who spent an average of 181 days (range 161-196 days) aboard the ISS took part in the study. Integral bone mineral density (iBMD), trabecular BMD (tBMD), bone mineral content (BMC), and vertebral cross-sectional area (CSA) were measured in the lumbar spine, and iBMD, tBMD, cortical BMD (cBMD), BMC, CSA, volume, and femoral neck section modulus were measured in the hip. Spine iBMD was 95% of the average preflight value upon return from the ISS and reached its preflight value over the next 2-4.5 years. Spine tBMD was 97% of the average preflight value upon return from the ISS and tended to decrease throughout the course of the study. Vertebral CSA remained essentially unchanged throughout the study. Hip iBMD was 91% of the preflight value upon return from the ISS and was 95% of the preflight value after 2-4.5 years of recovery. Hip tBMD was 88% of the preflight value upon return and recovered to only 93% of the preflight value after 1 year. At the 2- to 4.5-year time point, average tBMD was 88% of the preflight value. During the recovery period the total volume and cortical bone volume in the hip reached values of 114% and 110% of their preflight values, respectively. The combination of age-related bone loss, long-duration spaceflight, and re-adaptation to the 1-g terrestrial environment presumably produced these changes. These long-term data suggest that skeletal changes that occur during long-duration spaceflight persist even after multiple years of recovery. These changes have important implications for the skeletal health of crew members, especially those who make repeat trips to space.

The commercial campground industry in New Hampshire. A report on a 1971 campground census.

Treesearch

Wilbur F. LaPage; Paula L. Cormier; Steven C. Maurice; Steven C. Maurice

1972-01-01

The findings of a 1971 census of commercial camping enterprises in New Hampshire, including the growth of commercial camping enterprises during the period 1960-71, the average per-site costs and returns for operating a campground in 1970, and the characteristics of 78 successful and 89 unsuccessful camping enterprises.

Trends in New Hampshire campgrounds during the Seventies

Treesearch

Paula L. Cormier; Peggy S. Nystrom

1981-01-01

The findings of a 1980 census of commercial camping enterprises in New Hampshire are presented, including the growth of commercial camping enterprises during the period 1964 to 1980, campground characteristics, services and facilities, and the average costs and returns of operating a campground. This report represents the third census of the New Hampshire campground...

The Profitability Analysis of PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Before and After Privatization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurasiah, I.; Anggara

2017-03-01

This study purposes to determine differences in the profitability of PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. before and after privatization using Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Investmen (ROI) and Return on Equity (ROE). This research used a case study method with a qualitative approach. The data used are secondary data from official financial statements of PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. periode 2008-2013, 3 years before privatization and 3 years after privatization. Data analysis was performed by reviewing the financial statement data, calculate & determine the value of profitability ratios before and after privatization, and determine the amount of the average difference before and after privatization. The result proved that the average ratio of profitability calculated by applying NPM, ROI and ROE in every year shows a decrease that caused imbalance components forming of NPM, ROI, ROE, where profit is getting down while the selling, total assets and equity increase more and more from the previous period. The implication for the next research is a research that focus on determine how long a company can emerged from the crisis by privatization decision.

Project Lifespan-based Nonstationary Hydrologic Design Methods for Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, L.

2017-12-01

Under changing environment, we must associate design floods with the design life period of projects to ensure the hydrologic design is really relevant to the operation of the hydrologic projects, because the design value for a given exceedance probability over the project life period would be significantly different from that over other time periods of the same length due to the nonstationarity of probability distributions. Several hydrologic design methods that take the design life period of projects into account have been proposed in recent years, i.e. the expected number of exceedances (ENE), design life level (DLL), equivalent reliability (ER), and average design life level (ADLL). Among the four methods to be compared, both the ENE and ER methods are return period-based methods, while DLL and ADLL are risk/reliability- based methods which estimate design values for given probability values of risk or reliability. However, the four methods can be unified together under a general framework through a relationship transforming the so-called representative reliability (RRE) into the return period, i.e. m=1/1(1-RRE), in which we compute the return period m using the representative reliability RRE.The results of nonstationary design quantiles and associated confidence intervals calculated by ENE, ER and ADLL were very similar, since ENE or ER was a special case or had a similar expression form with respect to ADLL. In particular, the design quantiles calculated by ENE and ADLL were the same when return period was equal to the length of the design life. In addition, DLL can yield similar design values if the relationship between DLL and ER/ADLL return periods is considered. Furthermore, ENE, ER and ADLL had good adaptability to either an increasing or decreasing situation, yielding not too large or too small design quantiles. This is important for applications of nonstationary hydrologic design methods in actual practice because of the concern of choosing the emerging nonstationary methods versus the traditional stationary methods. There is still a long way to go for the conceptual transition from stationarity to nonstationarity in hydrologic design.

The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

PubMed

Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

2015-01-01

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

Endoscopic bursectomy for the treatment of septic pre-patellar bursitis: a case series.

PubMed

Dillon, John P; Freedman, Ilan; Tan, James S M; Mitchell, David; English, Shaun

2012-07-01

Operative treatment for septic pre-patellar bursitis generally involves open debridement in addition to an extended course of intravenous antibiotics. Skin necrosis and wound breakdown are potential complications of this procedure in addition to scar sensitivity and a prolonged recovery. We report endoscopic bursectomy for the treatment of septic pre-patellar bursitis in eight patients over a 3-year period. All patients had microbiological confirmation of an infective process. The average age was 36 years (23-68 years). The average hospital stay was 6 days (4-9 days). No patient had a recurrence or complained of tenderness or hypoaesthesia around their wound. No patient experienced wound complications or skin necrosis. The average return to work time was 18 days (7-22 days). We conclude that endoscopic bursectomy is a safe and effective treatment for septic pre-patellar bursitis with a shortened hospital stay and a quicker return to work than conventional open debridement.

Modeling the distribution of extreme share return in Malaysia using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Kassim, Suraiya

2012-05-01

Extreme share return in Malaysia is studied. The monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum returns are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are performed to test for stationarity, while Mann-Kendall (MK) test is for the presence of monotonic trend. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the parameter while L-moments estimate (LMOM) is used to initialize the MLE optimization routine for the stationary model. Likelihood ratio test is performed to determine the best model. Sherman's goodness of fit test is used to assess the quality of convergence of the GEV distribution by these monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum. Returns levels are then estimated for prediction and planning purposes. The results show all maximum returns for all selection periods are stationary. The Mann-Kendall test indicates the existence of trend. Thus, we ought to model for non-stationary model too. Model 2, where the location parameter is increasing with time is the best for all selection intervals. Sherman's goodness of fit test shows that monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum converge to the GEV distribution. From the results, it seems reasonable to conclude that yearly maximum is better for the convergence to the GEV distribution especially if longer records are available. Return level estimates, which is the return level (in this study return amount) that is expected to be exceeded, an average, once every t time periods starts to appear in the confidence interval of T = 50 for quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum.

Deterministic-random separation in nonstationary regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abboud, D.; Antoni, J.; Sieg-Zieba, S.; Eltabach, M.

2016-02-01

In rotating machinery vibration analysis, the synchronous average is perhaps the most widely used technique for extracting periodic components. Periodic components are typically related to gear vibrations, misalignments, unbalances, blade rotations, reciprocating forces, etc. Their separation from other random components is essential in vibration-based diagnosis in order to discriminate useful information from masking noise. However, synchronous averaging theoretically requires the machine to operate under stationary regime (i.e. the related vibration signals are cyclostationary) and is otherwise jeopardized by the presence of amplitude and phase modulations. A first object of this paper is to investigate the nature of the nonstationarity induced by the response of a linear time-invariant system subjected to speed varying excitation. For this purpose, the concept of a cyclo-non-stationary signal is introduced, which extends the class of cyclostationary signals to speed-varying regimes. Next, a "generalized synchronous average'' is designed to extract the deterministic part of a cyclo-non-stationary vibration signal-i.e. the analog of the periodic part of a cyclostationary signal. Two estimators of the GSA have been proposed. The first one returns the synchronous average of the signal at predefined discrete operating speeds. A brief statistical study of it is performed, aiming to provide the user with confidence intervals that reflect the "quality" of the estimator according to the SNR and the estimated speed. The second estimator returns a smoothed version of the former by enforcing continuity over the speed axis. It helps to reconstruct the deterministic component by tracking a specific trajectory dictated by the speed profile (assumed to be known a priori).The proposed method is validated first on synthetic signals and then on actual industrial signals. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on envelope-based diagnosis of bearings in variable-speed operation.

Can I be a student again? How medical graduates make the decision to return to dental school prior to a career in oral and maxillofacial surgery.

PubMed

Tahim, A S; Payne, K F B; Goodson, A M C; Cabot, L B; Fan, K

2014-05-01

Oral and maxillofacial surgery (OMFS) trainees in the UK have traditionally completed their dental undergraduate studies prior to returning to medical school. Recently, there have been increasing numbers of medical graduates who return to dental school before embarking on OMFS specialist training. There is limited research into the career motivation within this group and little guidance on how they may integrate the dental undergraduate course into their postgraduate training path. This study aims to evaluate these factors in more detail. Questionnaires and focus groups were used to evaluate prior surgical experience of qualified medics who return to dental school with the intention of pursuing a career in OMFS, along with the factors that affect the timing of their return to dental school. The average age of medical graduates entering dental school decreased during the study period. The average number of months each cohort of students spent as a practicing doctor prior to starting dentistry also reduced. Postgraduate experience in OMFS was highly variable, but the numbers of students who received alternative exposure to OMFS, such as undergraduate special study modules, medical school elective or taster weeks, increased. The key barriers that were carefully considered by these trainees before returning to university included the perceived increase in the length of training, trainees' prior surgical experience, financial implications and the impact on quality of life. A trainee's decision to return to study dentistry is a multifactorial process. Understanding when trainees decide to return to sit their dental degree is vital not only to provide guidance for future trainees but also to assist future workforce planning, thus aiding training, education and development within OMFS. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Correlation based networks of equity returns sampled at different time horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tumminello, M.; di Matteo, T.; Aste, T.; Mantegna, R. N.

2007-01-01

We investigate the planar maximally filtered graphs of the portfolio of the 300 most capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange during the time period 2001 2003. Topological properties such as the average length of shortest paths, the betweenness and the degree are computed on different planar maximally filtered graphs generated by sampling the returns at different time horizons ranging from 5 min up to one trading day. This analysis confirms that the selected stocks compose a hierarchical system progressively structuring as the sampling time horizon increases. Finally, a cluster formation, associated to economic sectors, is quantitatively investigated.

Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

Medical withdrawals from college for mental health reasons and their relation to academic performance.

PubMed

Meilman, P W; Manley, C; Gaylor, M S; Turco, J H

1992-03-01

A collaborative study among the university health service, the dean's office, and the registrar's office examined the academic performance of 77 students who took medical withdrawals for mental health reasons from Dartmouth College during a 3-year period. In 71.4% of the cases, students withdrew from a term in progress; the remainder arranged to withdraw after they had completed a term but before starting a new term. Depression was a major factor in approximately half of the withdrawals. Grade point average improved significantly after return from the withdrawal, with a large jump in individual term averages occurring between the terms immediately preceding and immediately following return. We found no significant difference between the number of students who experienced disciplinary trouble before withdrawal and those who were disciplined afterward. Students who were depressed at the time of withdrawal did not fare as well academically upon return as those students who had not been depressed. The data suggest that procedures for handling mental health withdrawals and readmission are important ways in which the campus counseling center can support the university's academic mission.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2010-06-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 80's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The r-largest annual maxima method provides more reliable predictions of the extreme values especially for small return periods (<100 years). Finally, the study statistically proves the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

PubMed Central

Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

2015-01-01

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known “event study” from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the “event study” methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1–2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events. PMID:26390434

Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Gorban, A. N.; Y Yang, T.

2014-03-01

This case study tests the possibility of prediction for 'success' (or 'winner') components of four stock & shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the final three month frame (02/04/2012-29/06/2012).To label the components, average price ratio between two time frames in descending order is computed. The average price ratio is defined as the ratio between the mean prices of the beginning and final time period. The 'winner' components are referred to the top one third of total components in the same order as average price ratio it means the mean price of final time period is relatively higher than the beginning time period. The 'loser' components are referred to the last one third of total components in the same order as they have higher mean prices of beginning time period. We analyse, is there any information about the winner-looser separation in the initial fragments of the daily closing prices log-returns time series.The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation with k-NN algorithm is applied on the daily log-return of components using a distance and proximity in the experiment. By looking at the error analysis, it shows that for HANGSENG and DAX index, there are clear signs of possibility to evaluate the probability of long-term success. The correlation distance matrix histograms and 2-D/3-D elastic maps generated from ViDaExpert show that the 'winner' components are closer to each other and 'winner'/'loser' components are separable on elastic maps for HANGSENG and DAX index while for the negative possibility indices, there is no sign of separation.

Long memory behavior of returns after intraday financial jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behfar, Stefan Kambiz

2016-11-01

In this paper, characterization of intraday financial jumps and time dynamics of returns after jumps is investigated, and will be analytically and empirically shown that intraday jumps are power-law distributed with the exponent 1 < μ < 2; in addition, returns after jumps show long-memory behavior. In the theory of finance, it is important to be able to distinguish between jumps and continuous sample path price movements, and this can be achieved by introducing a statistical test via calculating sums of products of returns over small period of time. In the case of having jump, the null hypothesis for normality test is rejected; this is based on the idea that returns are composed of mixture of normally-distributed and power-law distributed data (∼ 1 /r 1 + μ). Probability of rejection of null hypothesis is a function of μ, which is equal to one for 1 < μ < 2 within large intraday sample size M. To test this idea empirically, we downloaded S&P500 index data for both periods of 1997-1998 and 2014-2015, and showed that the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function of jump return is power-law distributed with the exponent 1 < μ < 2. There are far more jumps in 1997-1998 as compared to 2015-2016; and it represents a power law exponent in 2015-2016 greater than one in 1997-1998. Assuming that i.i.d returns generally follow Poisson distribution, if the jump is a causal factor, high returns after jumps are the effect; we show that returns caused by jump decay as power-law distribution. To test this idea empirically, we average over the time dynamics of all days; therefore the superposed time dynamics after jump represent a power-law, which indicates that there is a long memory with a power-law distribution of return after jump.

Lunar mare volcanism - Stratigraphy, eruption conditions, and the evolution of secondary crusts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Head, James W., III; Wilson, Lionel

1992-01-01

Recent developments in the geological analysis of lunar mare volcanism are reviewed. Analysis of returned samples and photogeological and remote sensing studies shows that mare volcanism began prior to the end of heavy bombardment (the period of cryptomare formation), in pre-Nectarian times, and continued until the Copernical Period, the total duration approaching 3.5-4 Ga. Stratigraphic analysis shows that the flux was not constant, but peaked in early lunar history, during the Imbrian Period. Average volcanic output rate during this period was about 0.01 cu cm/a. Volcanic landforms indicate that many eruptions were of high volume and long duration. Some eruptions associated with sinuous rills may have lasted a year and emplaced 1000 cu km of lava, representing the equivalent in one year of about 70,000 yr at the average flux. The occurrence of farside maria within craters whose diameter is generally near to or less than the thickness of the crust may be accounted for by the difference between local and regional compensation.

Sports- and Work-Related Outcomes After Shoulder Hemiarthroplasty.

PubMed

Garcia, Grant H; Mahony, Gregory T; Fabricant, Peter D; Wu, Hao-Hua; Dines, David M; Warren, Russell F; Craig, Edward V; Gulotta, Lawrence V

2016-02-01

With an active aging population, more patients expect to return to previous activities and work after surgery. To determine the rate and timing to return of sports and employment after shoulder hemiarthroplasty. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. This was a retrospective review of consecutive patients who underwent shoulder hemiarthroplasty from 2007 to 2013. Follow-up consisted of a patient-reported questionnaire regarding physical fitness, sporting activities, and work status. From 105 patients screened, 79 were available for follow-up. The average follow-up time was 63.1 months, and the average age at follow-up was 69 years. Scores on the visual analog scale for pain improved from 6.2 to 2.1 (P < .001) postoperatively, and those on the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) shoulder assessment improved from 34.6 to 71.3 (P < .001). Patients older than 65 years had significantly lower absolute postoperative ASES scores (P = .041) but experienced similar improvement from their preoperative baseline (P = .158) compared with patients younger than 65 years. There were 58 patients who played sports preoperatively, and 67.2% of these restarted at least 1 of their previous sports postoperatively. The average time to return to full sports was 6.5 months for those who returned. Direct rates of return were as follows: fitness sports (69%), swimming (65%), running (64%), cycling (63%), and doubles tennis (57%). Younger age was associated with highest demand level achieved (P = .023). Forty-nine patients worked preoperatively, with 69.4% returning to previous employment after surgery; the average time to return to work was 1.4 months. In comparative analysis, patients who did not return to work had a higher mean body mass index (32 ± 7 vs 27 ± 5 kg/m(2); P < .008). In this hemiarthroplasty cohort, there was a 67.2% rate of return to 1 or more sports at an average of 6.5 months postoperatively. Patients older than 65 years experienced similar improvements in ASES scores compared with patients younger than 65 years, although absolute scores were lower on average. Those who returned to higher demand sports were younger on average. Of patients working preoperatively, 69.4% returned to their previous employment at an average of 1.4 months. Patients who did not return to employment had significantly higher body mass index on average. These findings will help surgeons manage expectations of shoulder hemiarthroplasty candidates preoperatively. © 2015 The Author(s).

Meaning of work and the returning process after breast cancer: a longitudinal study of 56 women.

PubMed

Lilliehorn, Sara; Hamberg, Katarina; Kero, Anneli; Salander, Pär

2013-06-01

An increasing number of women survive breast cancer and a majority return to work. However, findings based on mean values may conceal individual processes that need to be better understood to discuss meaningful rehabilitation. The purpose of this study is to describe the sick-leave pattern of a group of Swedish women with primary breast cancer but foremost to explore their ideas about what motivates and discourages their return to work. Fifty-six women were repeatedly interviewed over a period of 18-24 months. Interview sections that clearly illustrated the women's experiences and ideas about work were categorized using the comparative similarities-differences technique. The average length of sick leave was 410 days (range 0-942). Six months after the first day of sick leave, 29% worked at least their previous service grade. At 12 months, 55% and at 18 months 57% did so. Those treated with chemotherapy had in average more than twice as large sick leave as those who did not. Three categories emerged. 'Motives for not returning to work' consists of four subcategories: 'I'm still too fragile to return to work'; 'My workplace is a discouraging place'; 'I took an opportunity to pause' and 'I've lost the taste for work'. 'Motives for returning' consists of two sub-categories: 'Work generates and structures my everyday life' and 'I miss my workplace'. Finally, 'Transition in work approach' reflects a changed approach to work. The meaning of work varies over time, but first and foremost work was regarded as an important part of the healing process as it restores the disruption of everyday life. Guidelines cannot be reduced to a linear relationship with biomedical variables but the individual context of everyday life must be considered. © 2012 Nordic College of Caring Science.

The financial cost of hamstring strain injuries in the Australian Football League.

PubMed

Hickey, Jack; Shield, Anthony J; Williams, Morgan D; Opar, David A

2014-04-01

Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) have remained the most prevalent injury in the Australian Football League (AFL) over the past 21 regular seasons. The effect of HSIs in sports is often expressed as regular season games missed due to injury. However, the financial cost of athletes missing games due to injury has not been investigated. The aim of this report is to estimate the financial cost of games missed due to HSIs in the AFL. Data were collected using publicly available information from the AFL's injury report and the official AFL annual report for the past 10 competitive AFL seasons. Average athlete salary and injury epidemiology data were used to determine the average yearly financial cost of HSIs for AFL clubs and the average financial cost of a single HSI over this time period. Across the observed period, average yearly financial cost of HSIs per club increased by 71% compared with a 43% increase in average yearly athlete salary. Over the same time period the average financial cost of a single HSI increased by 56% from $A25,603 in 2003 to $A40,021 in 2012, despite little change in the HSI rates during the period. The observed increased financial cost of HSIs was ultimately explained by the failure of teams to decrease HSI rates, but coupled with increases in athlete salaries over the past 10 season. The information presented in this report highlights the financial cost of HSIs and other sporting injuries, raising greater awareness and the need for further funding for research into injury prevention strategies to maximise economical return for investment in athletes.

[Rehabilitation following interruption of pregnancy since the legalization of abortion. I. Structure of patients, duration of disability, menstruation and effects of contraceptive counseling].

PubMed

Zwahr, C; Knorre, P; Kunz, L

1974-01-04

Rehabilitation after abortion is an important consideration for fertile women and is defined here as recovery of the physical, psychic, and social condition that had been present prior to abortion. 206 women were studied 6-12 months after induced abortion (before 12 weeks by the vacuum suction apparatus method). 9.2% of the women attributed worsening of their physical condition to recent abortion. Duration of work incapacity was 8-21 days, with an average of 19 days; younger women and women with fewer children recuperated more quickly. In most cases menstruation returned late, an average of 35 days after the last period. 33% of the menstruations were unusually heavy. Duration of menstruation decreased from an average of 6.5 days for the 1st period to an average of 5.4 days by the 6th, women over 30 became regular more quickly than younger women. The study revealed that 33% of the women did not use contraceptives even after abortion. After intensive counseling, a disappointing 22.9% still resisted using contraceptives.

Lead-lag relationships between stock and market risk within linear response theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borysov, Stanislav; Balatsky, Alexander

2015-03-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risks (standard deviation of daily stock returns) and market risk (standard deviation of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over stocks, using historical stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. The observed historical dynamics suggests that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when individual stock risks affect market risk and vice versa. This work was supported by VR 621-2012-2983.

Changes in productivity and profitability of wool-growing farms that follow recommendations from agricultural and veterinary studies.

PubMed

Lean, G R; Vizard, A L; Ware, J K

1997-10-01

To estimate the changes in productivity and profitability in a group of wool-growing farms as they adopted major recommendations from agricultural and veterinary studies. FARMS: Four wool-growing farms in south western Victoria were selected from the clients of the Mackinnon Project, a farm consultancy service run from the University of Melbourne. Each farm had closely followed recommended procedures, kept comprehensive financial and physical records and had been clients for at least 5 years. The comparison group was the South Western Victoria Monitor Farm Project (SWVMFP), about 45 farms in the same region as the study farms that were monitored annually by Agriculture Victoria. For a 7-year period, the financial and physical performance of both groups of farms was estimated. Stocking rate, wool production, gross farm income, farm operating costs, net farm income and return on assets were compared. Mean gross farm income of the four study farms steadily rose from 86% of the average SWVMFP farm before the adoption of recommendations to an average of 155%. During the same period, net farm income rose from 70% to 207% of the average of the SWVMFP. Return on asset of the four farms rose irregularly from 26% to 145% of the average of the SWVMFP. Farm operating costs on the four farms were higher than for the SWVMFP group, but the ratio of costs remained relatively constant. The adoption of proven research results was associated with large increases in net farm income. An increase in gross income, rather than a reduction in costs was the main reason for this. Research results offer a way to increase the financial viability of wool-growing farmers, many of whom are currently unable to maintain their lifestyle, resources and infrastructure.

Betting patterns for sports and races: a longitudinal analysis of online wagering in Australia.

PubMed

Gainsbury, Sally M; Russell, Alex

2015-03-01

Online wagering is increasing in popularity as it is easily accessible through websites which market these services widely. However, few studies have examined online betting based on actual behavioural data. This paper describes the results of an analysis of 2,522,299 bets placed with an Australian online wagering operator over a 1-year period. The majority of bets placed were for a win (45.31 %) and were placed on races (86.74 %) or sports (11.29 %). Sports betting was dominated by ball sports, reflecting popular interest in these events. More than three-quarters (77.63 %) of the bets were losses and there was large variation in bet size between bet types and events bet on although average bets were higher than in previously reported studies. The most popular bets placed to win, had a relatively high rate of losses and lowest average returns, which may reflect less sophisticated betting behaviour. More specific handicap and total bets were placed by fewer customers, but were larger bets with the greatest returns. Similarly, bets placed on less popular sporting events had greater average returns potentially reflecting greater customer sophistication and knowledge raising the possibility of a proportion of bettors being more 'skilled'. As the first paper to analyze the types of bets placed on events and outcomes the results support the notion that wagering is an entertainment activity, and the majority of customers are motivated by factors other than simply winning money.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Return stroke velocities and currents using a solid state silicon detector system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Douglas M.; Rust, W. David

1988-01-01

A small, portable device has been developed to measure return stroke velocities. With the device, velocities from 135 strokes that consist of 92 natural return strokes and 43 triggered return strokes have been analyzed. The average return stroke velocity for longer channels, greater than 500 meters, is 1.2 + or - 0.3 x 10 to the 8th m/s for both natural and triggered return strokes. For shorter channel lengths, less than 500 m, natural lightning has a statistically higher average return stroke velocity of 1.9 + or - 0.7 x 10 to the 8th m/s than triggered lightning with an average return stroke velocity of 1.4 + or - 0.4 x 10 to the 8th m/s. Using the transmission line model of the return stroke, natural lightning has a peak current distribution that is log-normal with a median value of 19 kA. Return stroke velocities and currents were determined for two distant single stroke natural positive cloud-to-ground flashes. The velocities were 1.0 and 1.7 x 10 to the 8th ms/s while the estimated peak current for each positive flash was over 125 kA.

STS 118 Return Samples: Assessment of Air Quality aboard the Shuttle (STS-118) and International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.

2007-01-01

The toxicological assessments of 2 grab sample canisters (GSCs) and one pair of formaldehyde badges from the Shuttle are reported. Analytical methods have not changed from earlier reports. The recoveries of the 3 surrogates (C-13-acetone, fluorobenzene, and chlorobenzene) from the 2 GSCs averaged 120, 117, and 122 %, respectively. Three formaldehyde controls averaged 98% recovery. The Shuttle atmosphere was acceptable for human respiration. The toxicological assessment of 8 GSCs and 6 pairs of formaldehyde badges from the ISS is shown. The recoveries of the 3 standards (as listed above) from the GSCs averaged 99, 99 and 99%, respectively. Three formaldehyde control badges averaged 98% recovery. Based on these limited samples, the ISS atmosphere is acceptable for human respiration. The alcohol levels were well controlled throughout the period of sampling.

Optimal investment horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonsen, I.; Jensen, M. H.; Johansen, A.

2002-06-01

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span Δt, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits ``fat tails'' indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1-3]. Instead of estimating this ``fat tail'' distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract.

Effect of NGA West-2 Predictive Ground Motion Equations on Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemberie, A. L.

2014-12-01

Individual Predictive Ground Motion Equations (PGMEs) of the NGA West-2 project have been analyzed for possible differences in loss for certain locations in California. Differences between the individual hazard curves are pronounced in the loss results. The differences are more than a factor of 2 for longer return periods between the Gross losses from the individual PGMEs. Similar differences are also found between the Average Annual Losses from the individual PGMEs. This indicates the difficulty in choosing any one of the PGMEs except using the weighted average of them. Comparisons between losses from the 2008 and 2014 models are also reported.

Two-dimensional velocity, optical risetime, and peak current estimates for natural positive lightning return strokes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Douglas M.; Rust, W. D.

1993-01-01

Velocities, optical risetimes, and transmission line model peak currents for seven natural positive return strokes are reported. The average 2D positive return stroke velocity for channel segments of less than 500 m in length starting near the base of the channel is 0.8 +/- 0.3 x 10 exp 8 m/s, which is slower than the present corresponding average velocity for natural negative first return strokes of 1.7 +/- 0.7 x 10 exp 8/s. It is inferred that positive stroke peak currents in the literature, which assume the same velocity as negative strokes, are low by a factor of 2. The average 2D positive return stroke velocity for channel segments of greater than 500 m starting near the base of the channel is 0.9 +/- 0.4 x 10 exp 8 m/s. The corresponding average velocity for the present natural negative first strokes is 1.2 +/- 0.6 x 10 exp 8 m/s. No significant velocity change with height is found for positive return strokes.

A Free-Return Earth-Moon Cycler Orbit for an Interplanetary Cruise Ship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genova, Anthony L.; Aldrin, Buzz

2015-01-01

A periodic circumlunar orbit is presented that can be used by an interplanetary cruise ship for regular travel between Earth and the Moon. This Earth-Moon cycler orbit was revealed by introducing solar gravity and modest phasing maneuvers (average of 39 m/s per month) which yields close-Earth encounters every 7 or 10 days. Lunar encounters occur every 26 days and offer the chance for a smaller craft to depart the cycler and enter lunar orbit, or head for a Lagrange point (e.g., EM-L2 halo orbit), distant retrograde orbit (DRO), or interplanetary destination such as a near-Earth object (NEO) or Mars. Additionally, return-to-Earth abort options are available from many points along the cycling trajectory.

Evidence of increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market through the analysis of its variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Huerta-Quintanilla, R.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.

2007-07-01

It is well known that there exist statistical and structural differences between the stock markets of developed and emerging countries. In this work, and in order to find out if the efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market has been changing over time, we have performed and compared several analyses of the variations of the Mexican Stock Market index (IPC) and Dow Jones industrial average index (DJIA) for different periods of their historical daily data. We have analyzed the returns autocorrelation function (ACF) and used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study returns variations. We also analyze the volatility, mean value and standard deviation of both markets and compare their evolution. We conclude from the overall result of these studies, that they show compelling evidence of the increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market over time. The data samples analyzed here, correspond to daily values of the IPC and DJIA for the period 10/30/1978-02/28/2006.

Scaling analysis on Indian foreign exchange market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

2006-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies: namely, US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. The average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is found to exhibit a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary, the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies do not show persistency or antipersistency and follow Gaussian distribution.

The effect of graded activity on patients with subacute low back pain: a randomized prospective clinical study with an operant-conditioning behavioral approach.

PubMed

Lindström, I; Ohlund, C; Eek, C; Wallin, L; Peterson, L E; Fordyce, W E; Nachemson, A L

1992-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether graded activity restored occupational function in industrial blue-collar workers who were sick-listed for 8 weeks because of subacute, nonspecific, mechanical low back pain (LBP). Patients with LBP, who had been examined by an orthopedic surgeon and a social worker, were randomly assigned to either an activity group (n = 51) or a control group (n = 52). Patients with defined orthopedic, medical, or psychiatric diagnoses were excluded before randomization. The graded activity program consisted of four parts: (1) measurements of functional capacity; (2) a work-place visit; (3) back school education; and (4) an individual, submaximal, gradually increased exercise program, with an operant-conditioning behavioral approach, based on the results of the tests and the demands of the patient's work. Records of the amount of sick leave taken over a 3-year period (ie, the 1-year periods before, during, and after intervention) were obtained from each patient's Social Insurance Office. The patients in the activity group returned to work significantly earlier than did the patients in the control group. The median number of physical therapist appointments before return to work was 5, and the average number of appointments was 10.7 (SD = 12.3). The average duration of sick leave attributable to LBP during the second follow-up year was 12.1 weeks (SD = 18.4) in the activity group and 19.6 weeks (SD = 20.7) in the control group. Four patients in the control group and 1 patient in the activity group received permanent disability pensions. The graded activity program made the patients occupationally functional again, as measured by return to work and significantly reduced long-term sick leave.

Return-to-play outcomes after microscopic lumbar diskectomy in professional athletes.

PubMed

Watkins, Robert G; Hanna, Robert; Chang, David; Watkins, Robert G

2012-11-01

It has been shown a microscopic lumbar diskectomy (MLD) is effective in getting professional athletes back to their sport after a herniated nucleus pulposus (HNP). There is a need for more information on the time it takes professional athletes to return after surgery. To determine average time for return to play and success in returning to play for professional athletes undergoing MLD. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Between 1996 and 2010, the senior authors treated 171 professional athletes for lumbar HNP. A retrospective review was performed using patient charts, operative reports, team medical records, and internet search. Eighty-five patients were treated with MLD, and 86 patients were treated nonoperatively. This study focused on the return to play of the operatively treated patients. Primary outcome measures were return rate and average return time, considering only patients whose sport is in season at specific postoperative time points. Of surgically treated patients, 89.3% returned to sport. The average time it took operative patients to return to their sport (return time) was 5.8 months. Progressive return data for surgically treated patients showed the percentage of athletes who returned increased from 50% at 3 months to 72% at 6 months to 77% at 9 months and 84% at 12 months. The chance a player returns to play after MLD is 50% at 3 months, 72% at 6 months, 77% at 9 months, and 84% at 12 months. The overall chance of returning to play at any point is 89%.

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

High Satisfaction and Return to Sports After Total Shoulder Arthroplasty in Patients Aged 55 Years and Younger.

PubMed

Garcia, Grant H; Liu, Joseph N; Sinatro, Alec; Wu, Hao-Hua; Dines, Joshua S; Warren, Russell F; Dines, David M; Gulotta, Lawrence V

2017-06-01

Young, active candidates for total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) are a unique group of patients. Not only do they demand longevity and improved function, but they also desire a return to physical activities. To determine the rate of return to sports in patients aged ≤55 years undergoing TSA. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. This was a retrospective review of consecutive patients who underwent anatomic TSA at a single institution. Exclusion criteria included age at the time of surgery >55 years and <2 years of follow-up. All patients had end-stage osteoarthritis with significant glenohumeral joint space narrowing. The final follow-up consisted of a patient-reported sports questionnaire, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) score, and visual analog scale (VAS) score. From 70 eligible patients, 59 patients (61 shoulders) were included with an average follow-up of 61.0 months (range, 25-103 months) and average age at the time of surgery of 48.9 years (range, 25-55 years). The average VAS score improved from 5.6 to 0.9 ( P < .001), and the average ASES score improved from 39.3 to 88.4 ( P < .001). Forty-nine procedures (80.3%) were performed for a primary diagnosis of osteoarthritis. Four shoulders returned to the operating room; none were for glenoid loosening. There was a 93.2% satisfaction rate, and 67.7% of patients (n = 40) stated that they underwent their surgery to return to sports. Moreover, patients in 96.4% of shoulders (55/57) restarted at least 1 sport at an average of 6.7 months. Direct rates of return were as follows: fitness sports (97.2%), golf (93.3%), singles tennis (87.5%), swimming (77.7%), basketball (75.0%), and flag football (66.7%). Patients in 47 shoulders (82.4%) returned to a similar or higher level of sports; 90.3% returned to high-demand sports, and 83.8% returned to high upper extremity sports. There was no significant difference in rates of return to sports by body mass index, sex, age, preoperative diagnosis, revision status, and dominant extremity. In patients aged ≤55 years undergoing TSA, there was a 96.4% rate of return to ≥1 previous sports at an average of 6.7 months. Furthermore, at an average follow-up of 61.0 months, no patients needed revision of their glenoid component, despite an 83.8% rate of return to high upper extremity sports. While caution should still be advised in young, active patients undergoing TSA, these results demonstrate a high satisfaction rate and improved ability to return to most sports after surgery.

Return period adjustment for runoff coefficients based on analysis in undeveloped Texas watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dhakal, Nirajan; Fang, Xing; Asquith, William H.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Thompson, David B.

2013-01-01

The rational method for peak discharge (Qp) estimation was introduced in the 1880s. The runoff coefficient (C) is a key parameter for the rational method that has an implicit meaning of rate proportionality, and the C has been declared a function of the annual return period by various researchers. Rate-based runoff coefficients as a function of the return period, C(T), were determined for 36 undeveloped watersheds in Texas using peak discharge frequency from previously published regional regression equations and rainfall intensity frequency for return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The C(T) values and return period adjustments C(T)/C(T=10  year) determined in this study are most applicable to undeveloped watersheds. The return period adjustments determined for the Texas watersheds in this study and those extracted from prior studies of non-Texas data exceed values from well-known literature such as design manuals and textbooks. Most importantly, the return period adjustments exceed values currently recognized in Texas Department of Transportation design guidance when T>10  years.

System for detecting substructure microfractures and method therefore

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parthasarathy, S. P.; Narasimhan, K. Y. (Inventor)

1979-01-01

Bursts of signals at different frequencies are induced into substructure, adjacent to a borehole. The return signals from each burst of signals are normalized to compensate for the attenuation, experienced by more distant return signals. The peak amplitudes of return signals, above a selected level, are cut off, and an average signal is produced from the normalized amplitude-limited return signals of each burst. The averaged signals of the return signals of all the signal bursts at the different frequencies are processed to provide a combined signal, whose amplitude is related to the microfracture density of the substructure adjacent to the borehole.

A Feasibility Study for Simultaneous Measurements of Water Vapor and Precipitation Parameters using a Three-frequency Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, R.; Liao, L.; Tian, L.

2005-01-01

The radar return powers from a three-frequency radar, with center frequency at 22.235 GHz and upper and lower frequencies chosen with equal water vapor absorption coefficients, can be used to estimate water vapor density and parameters of the precipitation. A linear combination of differential measurements between the center and lower frequencies on one hand and the upper and lower frequencies on the other provide an estimate of differential water vapor absorption. The coupling between the precipitation and water vapor estimates is generally weak but increases with bandwidth and the amount of non-Rayleigh scattering of the hydrometeors. The coupling leads to biases in the estimates of water vapor absorption that are related primarily to the phase state and the median mass diameter of the hydrometeors. For a down-looking radar, path-averaged estimates of water vapor absorption are possible under rain-free as well as raining conditions by using the surface returns at the three frequencies. Simulations of the water vapor attenuation retrieval show that the largest source of error typically arises from the variance in the measured radar return powers. Although the error can be mitigated by a combination of a high pulse repetition frequency, pulse compression, and averaging in range and time, the radar receiver must be stable over the averaging period. For fractional bandwidths of 20% or less, the potential exists for simultaneous measurements at the three frequencies with a single antenna and transceiver, thereby significantly reducing the cost and mass of the system.

SO2 Emissions at Semeru Volcano, Indonesia: Characterization and Quantification of Persistent and Periodic Explosive Activity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smekens, J. F.; Clarke, A. B.; Burton, M. R.; Harijoko, A.; Wibowo, H.

2014-12-01

We present the first measurements of SO2 emissions at Semeru volcano, Indonesia, using an SO2 camera. Activity at Semeru is characterized by quiescent degassing interspersed with short-lived explosive events with low ash burden. The interval between explosions was measured at 32.1±15.7 minutes in a webcam survey of the volcano between the months of June and December 2013. We distinguish between two types of events: shorter events (type I: ~5 mins duration) with emissions returning quickly to baseline levels, and longer events (type II: ~15 mins duration) often showing multiple pulses and a longer period of increased emissions before a return to quiescent levels. Type I events represent >90% of the activity and release an average of 200-450 kg of SO2 per event. The single type II event we documented with the SO2 camera released a total of 1300 kg of SO2. We estimate the daily average emissions of Semeru to be 21-60 t d-1 of SO2, amounting to a yearly output of 7.5-22 Gg (7,500 - 22,000 metric tons), with 35-60% released during explosive events. The time series patterns of degassing are consistent with the existence of a viscous plug at the top of the conduit, causing accumulation and pressurization of the magma to produce the explosive events.

Maternal concerns during early parenthood.

PubMed

Kaitz, M

2007-11-01

Most research on maternal concerns has focused on their assessment during pregnancy and the early post-partum period. The aim of this study was to identify primary concerns of mothers later in the first post-partum year, changes over time, and factors that were associated with relatively intense concerns, including infant (difficult) temperament, hours employed out of the home and obstetrical complications during pregnancy or childbirth. Data were obtained from 366 first-time (Israeli) mothers at 3 and 6 months post-partum by employing a new tool, the Mothers' Concern Questionnaire, along with standardized questionnaires, administered by phone. Analyses revealed six dimensions of concerns (Family Health, Return to Work, Mother's Well-being, Relationships/Support, Infant Care, and Spouse). Of these, issues related to returning to work and family health were of most concern, and ratings were higher at 3 months than at 6 months post-partum. Women with higher-than-average total concern scores perceived their infant as more difficult, were more likely to have experienced an obstetric complication, and worked more hours out of the house than women with lower-than-average scores. The findings afford a first look at the profile of normative maternal concerns outside of the immediate post-partum period and identify factors that predict more intense concerns. These findings extend what we know about the issues of new mothers and can guide birth educators and help couples prepare themselves for parenthood.

Range imaging laser radar

DOEpatents

Scott, Marion W.

1990-01-01

A laser source is operated continuously and modulated periodically (typicy sinusoidally). A receiver imposes another periodic modulation on the received optical signal, the modulated signal being detected by an array of detectors of the integrating type. Range to the target determined by measuring the phase shift of the intensity modulation on the received optical beam relative to a reference. The receiver comprises a photoemitter for converting the reflected, periodically modulated, return beam to an accordingly modulated electron stream. The electron stream is modulated by a local demodulation signal source and subsequently converted back to a photon stream by a detector. A charge coupled device (CCD) array then averages and samples the photon stream to provide an electrical signal in accordance with the photon stream.

Range imaging laser radar

DOEpatents

Scott, M.W.

1990-06-19

A laser source is operated continuously and modulated periodically (typically sinusoidally). A receiver imposes another periodic modulation on the received optical signal, the modulated signal being detected by an array of detectors of the integrating type. Range to the target determined by measuring the phase shift of the intensity modulation on the received optical beam relative to a reference. The receiver comprises a photoemitter for converting the reflected, periodically modulated, return beam to an accordingly modulated electron stream. The electron stream is modulated by a local demodulation signal source and subsequently converted back to a photon stream by a detector. A charge coupled device (CCD) array then averages and samples the photon stream to provide an electrical signal in accordance with the photon stream. 2 figs.

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Antarctic Ozone

Science.gov Websites

Hole Returns to Near Average Levels NOAA HOME WEATHER OCEANS FISHERIES CHARTING SATELLITES Returns to Near Average Levels Improvement Noted After Last Year's Record Breaker November 1, 2007 The

Collapse and recovery of forage fish populations prior to commercial exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClatchie, S.; Hendy, I. L.; Thompson, A. R.; Watson, W.

2017-02-01

We use a new, well-calibrated 500 year paleorecord off southern California to determine collapse frequency, cross correlation, persistence, and return times of exploited forage fish populations. The paleorecord shows that "collapse" (defined as <10% of the mean peak biomass) is a normal state repeatedly experienced by northern anchovy, Pacific hake, and Pacific sardine which were collapsed 29-40% of the time, prior to commercial fishing exploitation. Mean (± SD) persistence of "fishable biomass" (defined as one third mean peak biomass from the paleorecord) was 19 ± 18, 15 ± 17, and 12 ± 7 years for anchovy, hake, and sardine. Mean return times to the same biomass was 8 years for anchovy but 22 years for sardine and hake. Further, we find that sardine and anchovy are positively correlated over 400 years, consistent with coherent declines of both species off California. Persistence and return times combined with positive sardine-anchovy correlation indicate that on average 1-2 decades of fishable biomass will be followed by 1-2 decades of low forage. Forage populations are resilient on the 500 year time scale, but their collapse and recovery cycle (based on the paleorecord) are suited to alternating periods of high fishing mortality and periods of little or no fishing.

Effect of tillage and crop residue on soil temperature following planting for a Black soil in Northeast China.

PubMed

Shen, Yan; McLaughlin, Neil; Zhang, Xiaoping; Xu, Minggang; Liang, Aizhen

2018-03-14

Crop residue return is imperative to maintain soil health and productivity but some farmers resist adopting conservation tillage systems with residue return fearing reduced soil temperature following planting and crop yield. Soil temperatures were measured at 10 cm depth for one month following planting from 2004 to 2007 in a field experiment in Northeast China. Tillage treatments included mouldboard plough (MP), no till (NT), and ridge till (RT) with maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max Merr.) crops. Tillage had significant effects on soil temperature in 10 of 15 weekly periods. Weekly average NT soil temperature was 0-1.5 °C lower than MP, but the difference was significant (P < 0.05) only in 2007 when residue was not returned in MP the previous autumn. RT showed no clear advantage over NT in increasing soil temperature. Higher residue coverage caused lower soil temperature; the effect was greater for maize than soybean residue. Residue type had significant effect on soil temperature in 9 of 15 weekly periods with 0-1.9 °C lower soil temperature under maize than soybean residue. Both tillage and residue had small but inconsistent effect on soil temperature following planting in Northeast China representative of a cool to temperate zone.

The Effect of Paid Leave on Maternal Mental Health.

PubMed

Mandal, Bidisha

2018-06-07

Objectives I examined the relationship between paid maternity leave and maternal mental health among women returning to work within 12 weeks of childbirth, after 12 weeks, and those returning specifically to full-time work within 12 weeks of giving birth. Methods I used data from 3850 women who worked full-time before childbirth from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort. I utilized propensity score matching techniques to address selection bias. Mental health was measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CESD) scale, with high scores indicating greater depressive symptoms. Results Returning to work after giving birth provided psychological benefits to women who used to work full-time before childbirth. The average CESD score of women who returned to work was 0.15 standard deviation (p < 0.01) lower than the average CESD score of all women who worked full-time before giving birth. Shorter leave, on the other hand, was associated with adverse effects on mental health. The average CESD score of women who returned within 12 weeks of giving birth was 0.13 standard deviation higher (p < 0.05) than the average CESD score of all women who rejoined labor market within 9 months of giving birth. However, receipt of paid leave was associated with an improved mental health outcome. Among all women who returned to work within 12 weeks of childbirth, those women who received some paid leave had a 0.17 standard deviation (p < 0.05) lower CESD score than the average CESD score. The result was stronger for women who returned to full-time work within 12 weeks of giving birth, with a 0.32 standard deviation (p < 0.01) lower CESD score than the average CESD score. Conclusions The study revealed that the negative psychological effect of early return to work after giving birth was alleviated when women received paid leave.

One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2015-10-01

One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

Decline in economic returns from new drugs raises questions about sustaining innovations.

PubMed

Berndt, Ernst R; Nass, Deanna; Kleinrock, Michael; Aitken, Murray

2015-02-01

The sales and financial returns realized by pharmaceutical companies are a frequent topic of discussion and debate. In this study we analyzed the economic returns for four cohorts of new prescription drugs launched in the United States (in 1991-94, 1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09) and compared fluctuations in revenues with changing average research and development (R&D) and other costs to determine patterns in rewards for pharmaceutical innovation. We found that the average present values of lifetime net economic returns were positive and reached a peak with the 1995-99 and 2000-04 new drug cohorts. However, returns have fallen sharply since then, with those for the 2005-09 cohort being very slightly negative and, on average, failing to recoup research and development and other costs. If this level of diminished returns persists, we believe that the rewards for innovation will not be sufficient for pharmaceutical manufacturers to maintain the historical rates of investments needed to sustain biomedical innovation. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk

PubMed Central

Borysov, Stanislav S.; Balatsky, Alexander V.

2014-01-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994–2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa. PMID:25162697

Cross-correlation asymmetries and causal relationships between stock and market risk.

PubMed

Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V

2014-01-01

We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.

Hydrologic changes after logging in two small Oregon coastal watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell

1977-01-01

Effects of clearcut, cable logging on the hydrologic characteristics of a small coastal stream in Oregon indicate an average 181-percent increase in sediment yield over a 7-year postlogging period. Annual runoff and high-flow volumes increased 19 and 1.1 inches (480 and 28 mm), respectively, after logging in the watershed. Clearcutting in small, spaced patches in another watershed resulted in some increase in water and sediment yields, but the increase was not statistically significant. Average monthly April-October maximum water temperatures increased significantly in the principal stream of both the clearcut and 'patch-cut' watersheds. Hydrologic characteristics of both streams generally appear to be returning to prelogging conditions (19731.

A Bayesian model averaging approach to examining changes in quality of life among returning Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans

PubMed Central

Stock, Eileen M.; Kimbrel, Nathan A.; Meyer, Eric C.; Copeland, Laurel A.; Monte, Ralph; Zeber, John E.; Gulliver, Suzy Bird; Morissette, Sandra B.

2016-01-01

Many Veterans from the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan return home with physical and psychological impairments that impact their ability to enjoy normal life activities and diminish their quality of life (QoL). The present research aimed to identify predictors of QoL over an 8-month period using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which is a statistical technique useful for maximizing power with smaller sample sizes. A sample of 117 Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans receiving care in a southwestern healthcare system was recruited, and BMA examined the impact of key demographics (e.g., age, gender), diagnoses (e.g., depression), and treatment modalities (e.g., individual therapy, medication) on QoL over time. Multiple imputation based on Gibbs sampling was employed for incomplete data (6.4% missingness). Average follow-up QoL scores were significantly lower than at baseline (73.2 initial vs 69.5 4-month and 68.3 8-month). Employment was associated with increased QoL during each follow-up, while posttraumatic stress disorder and black race were inversely related. Additionally, predictive models indicated that depression, income, treatment for a medical condition, and group psychotherapy were strong negative predictors of 4-month QoL but not 8-month QoL. PMID:24942672

The Scientific Return of VLT Programmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterzik, M.; Dumas, C.; Grothkopf, U.; Kaufer, A.; Leibundgut, B.; Marteau, S.; Meakins, S.; Patat, F.; Primas, F.; Rejkuba, M.; Romaniello, M.; Stoehr, F.; Tacconi-Garman, L.; Vera, I.

2015-12-01

An in-depth analysis of the publications from 8414 distinct scheduled VLT observing programmes between April 1999 and March 2015 (Periods 63 to 94) is presented. The productivity by mode (Visitor or Service Mode) and type (Normal and Large, Guaranteed Time, Target of Opportunity, Director's Discretionary Time) are examined through their publication records. We investigate how Service Mode rank classes impact the scientific return. Several results derive from this study: Large Programmes result in the highest productivity, whereas only about half of all scheduled observing programmes produce a refereed publication. Programmes that result in a publication yield on average two refereed papers. B rank class Service Mode Programmes appear to be slightly less productive. Follow-up studies will investigate in more detail the parameters that influence the productivity of the Observatory.

The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2013-03-01

The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the total flow variability in the response of the urban drainage systems to heavy rainfall events.

The study of past damaging hydrogeological events for damage susceptibility zonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, O.; Pasqua, A. A.

2008-08-01

Damaging Hydrogeological Events are defined as periods during which phenomena, such as landslides, floods and secondary floods, cause damage to people and the environment. A Damaging Hydrogeological Event which heavily damaged Calabria (Southern Italy) between December 1972, and January 1973, has been used to test a procedure to be utilised in the zonation of a province according to damage susceptibility during DHEs. In particular, we analyzed the province of Catanzaro (2391 km2), an administrative district composed of 80 municipalities, with about 370 000 inhabitants. Damage, defined in relation to the reimbursement requests sent to the Department of Public Works, has been quantified using a procedure based on a Local Damage Index. The latter, representing classified losses, has been obtained by multiplying the value of the damaged element and the percentage of damage affecting it. Rainfall has been described by the Maximum Return Period of cumulative rainfall, for both short (1, 3, 5, 7, 10 consecutive days) and long duration (30, 60, 90, 180 consecutive days), recorded during the event. Damage index and population density, presumed to represent the location of vulnerable elements, have been referred to Thiessen polygons associated to rain gauges working at the time of the event. The procedure allowed us to carry out a preliminary classification of the polygons composing the province according to their susceptibility to damage during DHEs. In high susceptibility polygons, severe damage occurs during rainfall characterised by low return periods; in medium susceptibility polygons maximum return period rainfall and induced damage show equal levels of exceptionality; in low susceptibility polygons, high return period rainfall induces a low level of damage. The east and west sectors of the province show the highest susceptibility, while polygons of the N-NE sector show the lowest susceptibility levels, on account of both the low population density and high average rainfall characterizing these mountainous areas. The future analysis of further DHEs, using the tested procedure, can strengthen the obtained zonation. Afterwards, the results can prove useful in establishing civil defence plans, emergency management, and prioritizing hazard mitigation measures.

Long term analysis of wet and dry years in Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Chulsang

2006-03-01

This study investigated the recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years using the annual precipitation data collected in Seoul, Korea since 1776. More than one half of these 200 years of precipitation data are those collected in the Chosun Age using an old Korean rain gauge called Chukwooki. The recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years were investigated for several sets of thresholds, represented by use of the mean and standard deviation (stdv) of the annual precipitation such as mean±0.5stdv, mean±0.75stdv and mean±1.0stdv. These sets of thresholds have been decided so as to make the occurrence of wet and dry years follow the Poisson distribution. For a given set of thresholds, the wet, dry, and normal years are categorized, then the transition probabilities among those years were derived and compared. The average return periods were also derived using the stationary probabilities of wet and dry years. This analysis has been applied not only to the entire data but also to partial data sets composed of the data before and after the long dry period (lasting about 25 years) around 1900. This was to compare and detect the difference in the recurrence characteristics as well as the difference between the old Chukwooki and the modern flip-bucket style rain gauge data. As results, the overall recurrence patterns of wet and dry years have been found to be very similar. Only one obvious difference may be the return period of extremely dry years (for the threshold of mean-stdv), which after the long dry period was found to be longer than that before the long dry period (8.03 and 6.77 years, respectively). A similar result could also be found in the occurrence probability (or, the inverse of return period) of consecutive dry years estimated by applying the Poisson process. That is, for the lowest threshold of mean-stdv, the occurrence probability of consecutive dry years before the long dry period was higher than those after the long dry period. Thus, we may conclude that the possibility of long dry periods is decreasing recently.

Estimating the cost of unclaimed electronic prescriptions at an independent pharmacy.

PubMed

Doucette, William R; Connolly, Connie; Al-Jumaili, Ali Azeez

2016-01-01

The increasing rate of e-prescribing is associated with a significant number of unclaimed prescriptions. The costs of unclaimed e-prescriptions could create an unwanted burden on community pharmacy practices. The objective of this study was to calculate the rate and costs of filled but unclaimed e-prescriptions at an independent pharmacy. This study was performed at a rural independent pharmacy in a Midwestern state. The rate and costs of the unclaimed e-prescriptions were determined by collecting information about all unclaimed e-prescriptions for a 6-month period from August 2013 to January 2014. The costs of unclaimed prescriptions included those expenses incurred to prepare the prescription, contact the patient, and return the unclaimed prescription to inventory. Two sensitivity analyses were conducted. The total cost of 147 unclaimed e-prescriptions equaled $3,677.70 for the study period. Thus, the monthly cost of unclaimed e-prescriptions was $612.92 and the average cost of each unclaimed prescription was $25.02. The sensitivity analyses showed that using a technician to perform prescription return tasks reduced average costs to $19.33 and that using a state Medicaid cost of dispensing resulted in average costs of $18.54 per prescription. The rate of unclaimed e-prescriptions was 0.82%. The percentage of unclaimed e-prescriptions in this pharmacy was less than 1%. In addition to increased cost, unclaimed e-prescriptions add inefficiency to the work flow of the pharmacy staff, which can limit the time that they are available for performing revenue-generating activities. Adjustments to work flow and insurer policies could help to reduce the burden of unclaimed e-prescriptions. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Market Correlation Structure Changes Around the Great Crash: A Random Matrix Theory Analysis of the Chinese Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Rui-Qi; Xie, Wen-Jie; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

The correlation structure of a stock market contains important financial contents, which may change remarkably due to the occurrence of financial crisis. We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 Chinese stocks. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the market index in two time periods of one year are investigated. We find that the Chinese stocks have stronger average correlation and partial correlation in 2008 than in 2007 and the average partial correlation is significantly weaker than the average correlation in each period. Accordingly, the largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix is remarkably greater than that of the partial correlation matrix in each period. Moreover, each largest eigenvalue and its eigenvector reflect an evident market effect, while other deviating eigenvalues do not. We find no evidence that deviating eigenvalues contain industrial sectorial information. Surprisingly, the eigenvectors of the second largest eigenvalues in 2007 and of the third largest eigenvalues in 2008 are able to distinguish the stocks from the two exchanges. We also find that the component magnitudes of the some largest eigenvectors are proportional to the stocks’ capitalizations.

A study of metabolic balance in crewmembers of Skylab IV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rambaut, P. C.; Leach, C. S.; Whedon, G. D.

1979-01-01

A metabolic balance study was conducted on the three crewmembers of the 84-day Skylab IV earth orbital mission. Dietary intake was controlled, monitored, and kept very nearly constant for a period commencing 21 days prior to flight, throughout flight, and for a period of 18 days postflight. Within the first 30 days of flight urine calcium rose to a level approx. 100% above preflight levels and remained elevated for the remainder of the flight. Fecal calcium excretion increased more slowly but continued to accelerate throughout the flight and did not return to baseline levels during the postflight period. Urinary nitrogen increased to 25-30% above preflight levels within one month following launch and thereafter gradually subsided toward control values. The overall losses of calcium averaged approx. 200 mg per day throughout the mission while nitrogen losses averaged 590 mg. Various other indices of musculoskeletal deterioration are discussed and correlated. The parallelism between the effects of weightlessness and bed rest is reviewed. It is noted, that no evidence is yet available as to the identity of the initial biological response to the absence of gravity.

Able or unable to work? Life trajectory after severe occupational injury.

PubMed

Kulmala, Jarna; Luoma, Arto; Koskinen, Lasse

2018-04-24

To study the probabilities and permanence of return to work, inability to work and rehabilitation, and to explore the connection between these life situations and later working after a severe occupational injury. A historical cohort of Finnish workers with a severe occupational injury during 2008 (N = 11,585) were followed up annually on the outcomes of return to work over a 5-year observation period. We examined transition probabilities from one life situation to another with Markov chain analysis, and applied logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to assess the effect of register-based determinants on return to work. Within the five anniversaries, 85% of the injured were working, 9% were unable to work (fully or partly) and 2% received rehabilitation. Age, gross annual income, type of work, injured body part, injury type and the injured's annual condition subsequent to the work injury were significant determinants of return to work. The probability of return to work decreased with time, but, on average, one-fifth of the injured workers succeeded in return to work after being unable to work on the previous anniversary, which indicates that it is worthwhile to conduct efforts for this target group in order to promote return to work. Implications for Rehabilitation The current life situation of the injured should be taken into account when promoting return to work, as it is a strong predictor of later working after a serious occupational injury. Rehabilitation and return to work programs should start in time due to declining return to work rates as the disability continues. Return to work on a part-time basis could be a good option during the early phases of recovery, since a notable proportion of those partly unable to work on the first anniversary returned later to full-time workers. The probability of recovery is relatively high even for those with long-term disabilities, so the promotion of return to work is highly recommended also for this target group.

Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

PubMed

Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

2017-08-15

Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulated effects of irrigation on salinity in the Arkansas River Valley in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goff, K.; Lewis, M.E.; Person, M.A.; Konikow, Leonard F.

1998-01-01

Agricultural irrigation has a substantial impact on water quantity and quality in the lower Arkansas River valley of southeastern Colorado. A two-dimensional flow and solute transport model was used to evaluate the potential effects of changes in irrigation on the quantity and quality of water in the alluvial aquifer and in the Arkansas River along an 17.7 km reach of the fiver. The model was calibrated to aquifer water level and dissolved solids concentration data collected throughout the 24 year study period (197195). Two categories of irrigation management were simulated with the calibrated model: (1) a decrease in ground water withdrawals for irrigation; and (2) cessation of all irrigation from ground water and surface water sources. In the modeled category of decreased irrigation from ground water pumping, there was a resulting 6.9% decrease in the average monthly ground water salinity, a 0.6% decrease in average monthly river salinity, and an 11.1% increase in ground water return flows to the river. In the modeled category of the cessation of all irrigation, average monthly ground water salinity decreased by 25%; average monthly river salinity decreased by 4.4%; and ground water return flows to the river decreased by an average of 64%. In all scenarios, simulated ground water salinity decreased relative to historical conditions for about 12 years before reaching a new dynamic equilibrium condition. Aquifer water levels were not sensitive to any of the modeled scenarios. These potential changes in salinity could result in improved water quality for irrigation purposes downstream from the affected area.

Statistical analysis of electric field parameters for negative lightning in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wooi, Chin-Leong; Abdul-Malek, Zulkurnain; Ahmad, Noor-Azlinda; El Gayar, Ali I.

2016-08-01

This paper presents a comparative study on the electric field and its derivative parameters of negative lightning in Malaysia and other regions. This study is the first in Malaysia where the parameters of negative electric field and its derivative are thoroughly analyzed. 104 negative lightning flashes containing 277 negative return strokes occurring within 10-100 km from the measuring station and recorded during monsoon period in the state of Johor, Malaysia had been analyzed. It was found that 73% of the recorded flashes are multiple strokes with an average multiplicity of 2.6 strokes per flash. For first return strokes, the arithmetic mean (AM) of initial peak electric field and the AM of initial peak electric field derivative are 21.8 V/m and 11.3 V/m/μs, respectively. The initial peaks of electric field and its derivative for first return strokes are larger than those for the subsequent return strokes. Comparison of overall results with those obtained earlier in Sri Lanka, Germany, Sweden, Japan, Florida indicates that several electric field and its derivative parameters are affected by propagation media and geographical region. Similarity of results with other countries having the same climatic condition is also observed.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

Climatic Droughts and the Impacts on Crop Yields in Northern India during the Past Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Y.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Drought has become an increasingly severe threat to water and food security recently. This study presents a novel method to calculate the return period of drought, considering drought as event characterized by expected drought inter-arrival time, duration, severity and peak intensity. Recently, Copula distribution, a multivariable probability distribution, is used to deal with strongly correlated variables in analyzing complex hydrologic phenomenon. This study assesses drought conditions in Northern India, including 8 sites, in the past century using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from two latest datasets, Dai (2011, 2013) and Sheffield et al. (2012), which concluded conflicting results about global average drought trend. Our results include the change of the severity, intensity and duration of drought events during the past century and the impact of the drought condition on crop yields in the region. It is found that drought variables are highly correlated, thus copulas joint distribution enables the estimation of multi-variate return period. Based on Dai's dataset from 1900 to 2012, for a fixed drought return period the severity and duration is lower for the period before1955 in sites close to the Indus basin (site 1) or off the coast of the Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal) (site 8), while they are higher for the period after 1955 in other inland sites (sites 3-7), (e.g., severity in Fig.1). Projections based on two models (IPCC AR4 and AR5) in Dai (2011, 2013) suggested less severity and shorter duration in longer-year drought (e.g., 100-year drought), but larger in shorter-year drought (e.g., 2-year drought). Drought could bring nonlinear responses and unexpected losses in agriculture system, thus prediction and management are essential. Therefore, in the years with extreme drought conditions, impact assessment of drought on crop yield of corn, barley, wheat and sorghum will be also conducted through correlating crop yields with drought conditions during corresponding growing seasons. A. Dai, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12115 (2011).A. Dai, Nature Climate Change, 3, 52-58 (2013). J. Sheffield, E.F. Wood, M. L. Roderick, Nature, 491, 435-438 (2012) Fig. 1 Return period for severity from 1900 to 1954 (green), from 1955 to 2012 (red), and from 2013 to 2099 (black for AR4, blue for AR5), respectively for 8 sites.

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Johnson, Kris A.; Erickson, Tyler A.

2017-09-01

This paper reports the development of a ˜30 m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the conterminous U.S. using only publicly available data. The model employs a highly efficient numerical solution of the local inertial form of the shallow water equations which simulates fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. Importantly, we use the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset to determine topography; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defenses; and global regionalized flood frequency analysis to characterize return period flows and rainfalls. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) maps and detailed local hydraulic models developed by the USGS. Where the FEMA SFHAs are based on high-quality local models, the continental-scale model attains a hit rate of 86%. This correspondence improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Against the higher quality USGS data, the average hit rate reaches 92% for the 1 in 100 year flood, and 90% for all flood return periods. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps and USGS model outputs (e.g., errors in estimating return period flows), it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate both to within error. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with dramatically lower cost and greater coverage than approaches based on a patchwork of local studies.

High Rate of Return to Cycling After Hip Arthroscopy for Femoroacetabular Impingement Syndrome.

PubMed

Frank, Rachel M; Ukwuani, Gift; Clapp, Ian; Chahla, Jorge; Nho, Shane J

Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (FAIS) is most commonly diagnosed in athletes who sustain repetitive flexion and rotational loading to their hip. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a patient's ability to return to cycling after hip arthroscopy for FAIS. There is a high rate of return to cycling after hip arthroscopy. Retrospective analysis. Level 4. Consecutive patients who had identified themselves as cyclists and had undergone hip arthroscopy for the treatment of FAIS were reviewed. Pre- and postoperative physical examinations, imaging, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) scores, including the modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS), Hip Outcome Score Activities of Daily Living (HOS-ADL) and Sports-Specific (HOS-SS) subscales, and visual analog scale for pain, as well as a cycling-specific questionnaire, were assessed for all patients. A total of 58 patients (62% female; mean age, 30.0 ± 7.1 years; mean body mass index, 23.2 ± 2.7 kg/m 2 ) were included. Prior to surgery, patients averaged 30 ± 42 miles per week (range, 2-300 miles). Fifty-five patients (95%) were forced to discontinue cycling at an average of 7.5 ± 6.2 months prior to surgery due to hip pain. Fifty-six patients (97%) returned to cycling at an average of 4.5 ± 2.5 months after surgery, with 33 (59%) returning to a better level of cycling and 23 (41%) to the same cycling level. Postoperatively, there was no difference in the average number of miles patients completed per week compared with preoperative values ( P = 0.08). At a mean follow-up of 31.14 ± 0.71 months (range, 24-48 months), all patients experienced significant improvements in mHHS, HOS-ADL, and HOS-SS PROs (all P < 0.0001), with an overall satisfaction rate of 91% ± 13%. Recreational and competitive cyclists return to cycling 97% of the time after hip arthroscopy for FAIS, with most of these patients returning at an average of 4.5 months after surgery. This information is helpful in counseling patients on their expectations with regard to returning to cycling after hip arthroscopy for FAIS. Cyclists return to sport 97% of the time at an average of 4.5 months after hip arthroscopy for FAIS.

SO2 emissions at Semeru volcano, Indonesia: Characterization and quantification of persistent and periodic explosive activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smekens, Jean-François; Clarke, Amanda B.; Burton, Michael R.; Harijoko, Agung; Wibowo, Haryo E.

2015-07-01

We present the first measurements of SO2 emissions at Semeru volcano, Indonesia, using an SO2 camera. Activity at Semeru is characterized by quiescent degassing interspersed with short-lived explosive events with low ash burden. The interval between explosions was measured at 32.1 ± 15.7 min in a webcam survey of the volcano between the months of June and December 2013. We distinguish between two types of events: shorter events (type I: 5 min duration) with emissions returning quickly to baseline levels, and longer events (type II: 15 min duration) often showing multiple pulses and a longer period of increased emissions before a return to quiescent levels. Type I events represent > 90% of the activity and release an average of 200-500 kg of SO2 per event. The single type II event we documented with the SO2 camera released a total of 1460 kg of SO2. We estimate the daily average emissions of Semeru to be 21-71 t d- 1 of SO2, amounting to a yearly output of 8-26 Gg (8000-26,000 metric tons), with 35-65% released during explosive events. The time series patterns of degassing are consistent with the existence of a viscous plug at the top of the conduit, which seals the conduit immediately prior to explosive events, causing pressurization of the underlying magma followed by a sudden release of gas and fragmented magma.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-12-01

Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

Behavior and movement of adult summer steelhead following collection and release, lower Cowlitz River, Washington, 2012--2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Liedtke, Theresa L.; Ekstrom, Brian K.; Rondorf, Dennis W.; Gleizes, Chris; Dammers, Wolf; Gibson, Scott; Murphy, Jamie

2013-01-01

Executive SummaryHistorically, adult summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss returning to hatcheries on the lower Cowlitz River were sometimes transported and released in the river (recycled) to provide additional angling opportunity for the popular sport fishery in the basin. However, this practice has not been used in recent years because of concerns associated with interactions between hatchery fish and wild fish. Fishery managers were interested in resuming recycling but lacked information regarding effects of this practice on wild steelhead so we conducted a study during 2012–2013 to: (1) enumerate recycled steelhead that returned to the hatchery or were removed by anglers; and (2) determine if steelhead that were not removed from the river remained in the system where they could interact with wild fish.During June–August 2012, a total of 549 summer steelhead were captured at the Cowlitz Salmon Hatchery, tagged, and released downstream near the Interstate 5 Bridge. All recycled steelhead were tagged with a white Floy® tag and opercle-punched; 109 (20 percent) of these fish also were radio-tagged. All adult steelhead that return to the hatchery were handled by hatchery staff so recycled steelhead that returned to the hatchery were enumerated daily. A creel survey and voluntary angler reports were used to determine the number of recycled steelhead that were caught by anglers. We established three fixed telemetry monitoring sites on the mainstem Cowlitz River and eight additional sites were deployed on tributaries to the lower Cowlitz River where wild winter steelhead are known to spawn. We also conducted mobile tracking from a boat during October 2012, November 2012, and January 2013 to locate radio-tagged fish.A total of 10,722 summer steelhead were captured at the Cowlitz Salmon Hatchery in 2012, which was the largest return since 2008. River flows during much of the study period were similar to 2008–2011 average flows, however, high-flow periods in July and November 2012 were nearly twice as high as the 2008–2011 average flows. We determined that 50 percent (273 fish) of the recycled steelhead returned to the hatchery and 18 percent (102 fish) of the recycled steelhead were caught by anglers. Most (243 fish; 89 percent) of the recycled steelhead that returned to the hatchery were recollected during July–August. The average elapsed time from release to recapture at the hatchery was 9 days (d) and 72 percent (182 fish) of the fish returned to the hatchery within 14 d of release. These trends were similar for recycled steelhead that were caught by anglers. Most fish were caught during July–August and the median time from release to capture was 10 d. We determined that 65 percent (70 fish) of the angler-caught fish returned to the hatchery within 14 d of release. River flows appeared to affect both hatchery returns and angler catch. The daily number of recycled steelhead that were recollected at the hatchery were low during periods when river flows were decreasing and high during periods when river flows were increasing. Conversely, daily angler catch of recycled steelhead generally was low when flows were increasing and high when flows were decreasing.We determined that 32 percent of the recycled steelhead (174 fish) were not removed from the lower Cowlitz River, based on observations from hatchery returns and angler reports, but results from the radio-tagged fish were insightful for understanding what may have happened to these fish. By comparison, we determined that 24 percent of the radio-tagged fish were not known to have been removed from the river. We determined that 12 percent of these fish were actively moving in the lower Cowlitz River during October 2012–January 2013. None of the radio-tagged fish were detected in tributaries during the study period except for a single fish that spent approximately 7 d in the Toutle River during early September. During October 2012–January 2013, 10 percent of the radio-tags from recycled steelhead were detected near popular fishing areas, and 2 percent of the radio-tagged steelhead were never detected during the study period. We suspect that a large proportion of these fish may have been harvested and not reported, or died.Detection patterns of radio-tagged steelhead showed that most fish (82 percent) moved upstream from the release site and were detected at the Trout Hatchery and the Barrier Dam sites. The median time from release to detection at these sites was 3.7 d and many of these fish made multiple trips between the two sites. Nearly one-third (29 percent) of the recycled steelhead that were detected at the Trout Hatchery and the Barrier Dam made at least two trips between the sites and some fish made as many as six trips. Radio-tagged fish that remained in the lower Cowlitz River during the spawning period (December 2012–January 2013) were observed in the river reach between the mouth of Ostrander Creek (river mile 10) and the Trout Hatchery (river mile 44).During this study, we collected data on opercle punch regrowth rates to understand the temporal effectiveness of this marking technique. We took opercle measurements for a total of 190 fish during the study. Fresh opercle punches were measured for 63 fish at the time of marking, and the remaining 127 fish were measured when fish returned to the hatchery. We determined that opercle punches remained open for about 30 d. The holes appeared to regrow slowly in the first 20 d after marking, but regrowth accelerated during the 20–30 d post-marking period. After 30 d, all opercle punches that we observed had completely closed due to tissue regrowth.Our study showed that a large proportion (68 percent) of the recycled steelhead were removed from the lower Cowlitz River. These fish primarily entered the hatchery or were caught by anglers within 14 d of release, which suggests that they present minimal risk to wild fish in the system. However, the remaining fish (32 percent) could not be accounted for, which may complicate fisheries management decisions associated with recycling summer steelhead. Findings from the radiotelemetry study suggest that unreported harvest or mortality could explain a large proportion of those fish that were not reported as having been removed from the river. Furthermore, intensive monitoring of the key spawning tributaries failed to detect a single fish during the spawning period. These findings were supported by observations from weir traps operated by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Our findings indicate that additional research may be warranted to further examine the effects of recycling hatchery summer steelhead in the lower Cowlitz River.

Career redevelopment programmes for inactive nurses in Japan.

PubMed

Tanaka, Sachiko; Serizawa, Takako; Sakaguchi, Chizuru

2008-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenges and problems in using career redevelopment programmes and individual hospital programmes to prepare inactive nurses to re-enter into the workforce in Japan. It is critical to supply sufficient skilled health human resources for medical care. Although, Japan has a mandatory retraining programme for supporting nurses to return to the workplace after a career break, it is unclear to what extent there are benefits to nurses from these programmes. The research of career redevelopment programme was undertaken in three administrative divisions' nurse centres in local prefecture A, B and C. A survey of nurses participating in the programme running in T Hospital was also conducted. The issues examined were the background and motivations of participants, the length of career break, the percentages returning to work and the effectiveness of each programme. The average age of participants was 40 years, ranging widely from the 20-60 years. Local prefecture A tended to have narrower age range than others, namely from the 30-50 years. The average period of career break was around eight years at two of three. Length of experience was quite varied from entry level to 20 or 30 years in nursing. Feedback from nurses in the case study T Hospital suggests that the most effective ways of providing support through the programme was to meet the need for continuing support, including working styles after return to work and using the resources programme in their own area of domicile. In the potential return of the nurse, the following are important: (i) job support system by using social resources effectively in the community level; and (ii) introduction of diverse working styles that take account of varying work-life balance, as well as childcare support, by using existing facilities or human resources.

The similarities and differences of epidemic cycles of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma exacerbations.

PubMed

Johnston, Neil W

2007-12-01

The majority of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma exacerbations in both children and adults are associated with respiratory viral infections and are cyclic in nature. Some variation in these cycles is associated with the timing of the appearance of respiratory viruses, particularly influenza and respiratory syncytial virus. Much more, however, is associated with signal events that are of either fixed or predictable timing. In children, asthma exacerbations reach epidemic levels following school return after the summer vacation and these are predominantly associated with rhinovirus infections. Although younger adults experience a rise in asthma exacerbations at this time, these are secondary to the epidemic in children. Older adults with either COPD or asthma experience only a slightly elevated risk of exacerbations after school return, and hospital presentations for pneumonia in any age group show only marginal increases at that time. Exacerbations of both COPD and adult asthma, with increasing risk with age, are at their highest average annual levels during the Christmas period. This effect appears to be independent of the timing of above average levels of influenza, RSV, parainfluenza, or adenovirus detections; however, hospitalization for respiratory tract infections in all age groups reaches high levels at the same time. Both the post-summer vacation asthma epidemic and the Christmas epidemic of COPD, asthma, and pneumonia are synchronous with the timing of signal events, the day of school return for the former and Christmas Day for the latter, and have been for several years. The agents responsible for the Christmas epidemic of respiratory diseases have not yet been identified. The differences between age and disease exacerbation patterns after school return and at Christmas suggest that either different agents are involved or that the response to a common agent is different between the two signal events.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times: a tale of two years in not-for-profit hospital financial investments.

PubMed

Song, Paula H; Smith, Dean G; Wheeler, John R C

2008-01-01

Not-for-profit (NFP) hospitals' accumulations of financial assets have been growing steadily over the past 10 years. Surprisingly, little is known about how much investment reserves represent and how they are handled among NFP hospitals. The purpose of this study is to evaluate investment strategies in financial assets among NFP hospitals. Specifically, this article seeks to explore how NFP hospitals allocate and manage financial assets, how much risk hospitals employ in their investment strategies, and the risk and return trade-off under contrasting market conditions. Using two years of survey data from the Common fund Benchmarks Study for Health Care Institutions for fiscal years 2002 and 2003, we analyze NFP hospitals' investment strategies by comparing asset size, investment management characteristics, board characteristics, asset allocation, levels of risk, and annual returns. Univariate regression analysis is used to evaluate the relationship between risk and return. NFP hospitals have sizeable long-term financial assets, averaging over $558 million in 2002 and $634 million in 2003. Two thirds of these funds are invested in long-term operating funds followed by defined benefit pension funds and insurance reserves; management of these funds is primarily outsourced. NFP hospitals allocate, on average, 50% of their operating fund assets to equities. During the stock market downturn in 2002, each 1% investment in equities was significantly associated with a -0.18% decrease in annual returns. In contrast, the relationship is almost exactly opposite--consistent with the relationship typically associated with risk and return--in 2003. NFP hospitals with heavy reliance on investment income to boost total profit margins may have difficulty adjusting to periods of low performance. Evaluation of the performance and financial condition of the hospital must account for the size and composition of financial assets.

School outcomes for minority-group adolescent mothers at 28 to 36 months postpartum: a longitudinal follow-up.

PubMed

Leadbeater, B J

1996-01-01

This study examines the educational status of 120 adolescent postpartum women in the US during 1987-88. Mothers were 14-19 years old at delivery. 53.1% were African American and 42.5% were Puerto Rican. All but 2 deliveries were first births. 71.7% lived with their own mothers. 64.6% came from families on welfare. The average number of years of completed schooling was 9.5. At 28-36 months postpartum the average age was 19.7 years, 52.4% lived with their mothers, 52.4% lived off their mother's public assistance, and 17.9% supported themselves. 7.9% were married. Interviews were conducted at 3-4 weeks, 6 months, 12 months, and 28-36 months postpartum. 94% had completed interviews by 12 months, and 71% had completed interviews by 28-36 months. 33% of mothers had attended school or graduated through the pregnancy and the last follow-up period. 19% who were not in school at the first birth returned or graduated by 28-36 months postpartum. 12% dropped out before the pregnancy and never returned; 36% dropped out during the pregnancy and never returned. Greater risk of delayed grade placement by 28-36 months was significantly associated with age at delivery and reports of stressful life events 1 year postpartum. Mothers who were more grade-delayed reported more depressive symptoms, more repeat pregnancies, and lower work plans. At 1 year postpartum, school returners reported significantly fewer stresses and more child care support than dropouts. 41% of the mothers had a new mate. 25.7% reported a close relationship with the baby's father. About 80% reported problems with the fathers such as drugs, promiscuity, jail, death, machismo, or physical abuse. Only 39% of attenders had a repeat pregnancy compared to 68% of returners, 93% of dropouts during pregnancy, and 70% of dropouts before pregnancy. Only half of the mothers were likely to pursue educational and occupational goals.

Change of flood risk under climate change based on Discharge Probability Index in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitta, T.; Yoshimura, K.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2010-12-01

Water-related disasters under the climate change have recently gained considerable interest, and there have been many studies referring to flood risk at the global scale (e.g. Milly et al., 2002; Hirabayashi et al., 2008). In order to build adaptive capacity, however, regional impact evaluation is needed. We thus focus on the flood risk over Japan in the present study. The output from the Regional Climate Model 20 (RCM20), which was developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, was used. The data was first compared with observed data based on Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System and ground weather observations, and the model biases were corrected using the ratio and difference of the 20-year mean values. The bias-corrected RCM20 atmospheric data were then forced to run a land surface model and a river routing model (Yoshimura et al., 2007; Ngo-Duc, T. et al. 2007) to simulate river discharge during 1981-2000, 2031-2050, and 2081-2100. Simulated river discharge was converted to Discharge Probability Index (DPI), which was proposed by Yoshimura et al based on a statistical approach. The bias and uncertainty of the models are already taken into account in the concept of DPI, so that DPI serves as a good indicator of flood risk. We estimated the statistical parameters for DPI using the river discharge for 1981-2000 with an assumption that the parameters stay the same in the different climate periods. We then evaluated the occurrence of flood events corresponding to DPI categories in each 20 years and averaged them in 9 regions. The results indicate that low DPI flood events (return period of 2 years) will become more frequent in 2031-2050 and high DPI flood events (return period of 200 years) will become more frequent in 2081-2100 compared with the period of 1981-2000, though average precipitation will become larger during 2031-2050 than during 2081-2100 in most regions. It reflects the increased extreme precipitation during 2081-2100.

Understanding the impact of career academy attendance: an application of the principal stratification framework for causal effects accounting for partial compliance.

PubMed

Page, Lindsay C

2012-04-01

Results from MDRC's longitudinal, random-assignment evaluation of career-academy high schools reveal that several years after high-school completion, those randomized to receive the academy opportunity realized a $175 (11%) increase in monthly earnings, on average. In this paper, I investigate the impact of duration of actual academy enrollment, as nearly half of treatment group students either never enrolled or participated for only a portion of high school. I capitalize on data from this experimental evaluation and utilize a principal stratification framework and Bayesian inference to investigate the causal impact of academy participation. This analysis focuses on a sample of 1,306 students across seven sites in the MDRC evaluation. Participation is measured by number of years of academy enrollment, and the outcome of interest is average monthly earnings in the period of four to eight years after high school graduation. I estimate an average causal effect of treatment assignment on subsequent monthly earnings of approximately $588 among males who remained enrolled in an academy throughout high school and more modest impacts among those who participated only partially. Different from an instrumental variables approach to treatment non-compliance, which allows for the estimation of linear returns to treatment take-up, the more general framework of principal stratification allows for the consideration of non-linear returns, although at the expense of additional model-based assumptions.

Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits: A Proportional Hazard Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albert, Vicky N.; King, William C.; Iaci, Ross

2007-01-01

This study analyzes welfare returns for families who leave welfare for a "sit-out" period of 12 months in response to a temporary time limit requirement in Nevada. Findings reveal that relatively few families return for cash assistance after sitting out and that the majority who do return soon after their sit-out period is complete.…

Relative sensitivity of clinical tests to hydrophilic lens-induced corneal thickness changes.

PubMed

Elliott, D B; Fonn, D; Flanagan, J; Doughty, M

1993-12-01

The relative sensitivity of the van den Berg Straylightmeter, slitlamp biomicroscopy, a modified optical pachometer, Bailey-Lovie logMAR visual acuity (VA), and two glare tests (The Brightness Acuity Tester used with 10% contrast VA and Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity) to hydrophilic contact lens-induced edema was assessed in 19 subjects (mean age 25.9 +/- 4.5 years). After baseline assessments, subjects wore thick hydrogel lenses on one eye which was patched tightly for 3 h. Assessments were repeated at frequent intervals after lens removal to assess recovery. None of the pachometer measurements returned to baseline within the 2-h monitoring period, although the majority were within 2% of baseline corneal thickness. The average time for the Straylightmeter scores to recover to baseline values after the lens removal was 90 min, which was similar to the time when visible edema at the slitlamp disappeared. The average time for return to baseline of logMAR VA and the two glare tests was consistently two to three times shorter than the time for the Straylightmeter score. The Straylightmeter therefore provided assessments of corneal edema similar to slitlamp examination and was more sensitive than VA or glare testing.

The proprietary hospital industry: a financial analysis 1972-1982.

PubMed

Michel, A; Shaked, I; Daley, J

1985-01-01

This paper evaluates the performance of both specific firms within the American for-profit hospital industry and the industry as a whole. First, traditional financial analysis is used to evaluate individual publicly traded for-profit chains. Then, industry performance from 1973 to 1982 is evaluated using a set of measures based on Modern Portfolio Theory. The traditional financial analysis indicates that the industry seems increasingly profitable as well as increasingly healthy from the perspective of utilizing its assets and reducing its collection period. However, the industry's rapid growth rate has strained its ability to use additional debt funding and has created a potentially dangerous liquidity position. Measures based on Modern Portfolio Theory indicate that the average return of the industry has improved over the past 5 years. However, its risk has also increased. Nevertheless, the increase in risk is more than offset by the increased average return. In addition, recent legislation designed 'to reward the efficient' has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty into the industry's performance for the coming years. Thus, hospitals' ability to maintain the substantial profitability and rate of growth they have experienced over the past decade will depend on how well they will adapt to the changing environment.

Stabilizing effect of volatility in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenti, Davide; Fazio, Giorgio; Spagnolo, Bernardo

2018-06-01

In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered to be synonymous with greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To investigate this surprising feature, here we propose using the mean first hitting time, i.e., the average time a stock return takes to undergo for the first time a large negative (crashes) or positive variation (rallies), as an indicator of price stability, and relate this to a standard measure of volatility. In an empirical analysis of daily returns for 1071 stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange, we find that this measure of stability displays nonmonotonic behavior, with a maximum, as a function of volatility. Also, we show that the statistical properties of the empirical data can be reproduced by a nonlinear Heston model. This analysis implies that, contrary to conventional wisdom, not only high, but also low volatility values can be associated with higher instability in financial markets. This proposed measure of stability can be extremely useful in risk control.

Analysis of Realized Volatility for Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya; Watanabe, Toshiaki

2016-04-01

We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate realized volatility separately in the two trading sessions, i.e. morning and afternoon, of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and find that the microstructure noise decreases the realized volatility at small sampling frequency. Using realized volatility as a proxy of the integrated volatility we standardize returns in the morning and afternoon sessions and investigate the normality of the standardized returns by calculating variance, kurtosis and 6th moment. We find that variance, kurtosis and 6th moment are consistent with those of the standard normal distribution, which indicates that the return dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average are well described by a Gaussian random process with time-varying volatility.

Return to football and long-term clinical outcomes after thumb ulnar collateral ligament suture anchor repair in collegiate athletes.

PubMed

Werner, Brian C; Hadeed, Michael M; Lyons, Matthew L; Gluck, Joshua S; Diduch, David R; Chhabra, A Bobby

2014-10-01

To evaluate return to play after complete thumb ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury treated with suture anchor repair for both skill position and non-skill position collegiate football athletes and report minimum 2-year clinical outcomes in this population. For this retrospective study, inclusion criteria were complete rupture of the thumb UCL and suture anchor repair in a collegiate football athlete performed by a single surgeon who used an identical technique for all patients. Data collection included chart review, determination of return to play, and Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (QuickDASH) outcomes. A total of 18 collegiate football athletes were identified, all of whom were evaluated for follow-up by telephone, e-mail, or regular mail at an average 6-year follow-up. Nine were skill position players; the remaining 9 played in nonskill positions. All players returned to at least the same level of play. The average QuickDASH score for the entire cohort was 1 out of 100; QuickDASH work score, 0 out of 100; and sport score, 1 out of 100. Average time to surgery for skill position players was 12 days compared with 43 for non-skill position players. Average return to play for skill position players was 7 weeks postoperatively compared with 4 weeks for non-skill position players. There was no difference in average QuickDASH overall scores or subgroup scores between cohorts. Collegiate football athletes treated for thumb UCL injuries with suture anchor repair had quick return to play, reliable return to the same level of activity, and excellent long-term clinical outcomes. Skill position players had surgery sooner after injury and returned to play later than non-skill position players, with no differences in final level of play or clinical outcomes. Management of thumb UCL injuries in collegiate football athletes can be safely and effectively tailored according to the demands of the player's football position. Therapeutic IV. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endowments Celebrate a Streak

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Werf, Martin

2007-01-01

The return of college endowments from the depths of the market earlier this decade continued to gain momentum. Endowments returned an average of 10.7 percent in the 2006 fiscal year, up from the previous year's return of 9.3 percent. The largest endowments earned the best returns, allowing the wealthiest of colleges to put even more distance…

Heterogeneity in Schooling Rates of Return

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Daniel J.; Polachek, Solomon W.; Wang, Le

2011-01-01

This paper relaxes the assumption of homogeneous rates of return to schooling by employing nonparametric kernel regression. This approach allows us to examine the differences in rates of return to education both across and within groups. Similar to previous studies we find that on average blacks have higher returns to education than whites,…

Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets

PubMed Central

Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2015-01-01

Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales. PMID:26327593

Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

PubMed

Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2015-01-01

Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

Nonsurgically treated carpal tunnel syndrome in the manual worker.

PubMed

Monsivais, J J; Bucher, P A; Monsivais, D B

1994-10-01

This study evaluates the course of carpal tunnel syndrome in a group of manual laborers who declined surgery for personal or social reasons. Thirty-five patients and 67 extremities with carpal tunnel syndrome were evaluated in a group of manual laborers. The carpal tunnel syndrome was classified as mild, moderate, or severe on the basis of initial evaluation data. Sensory batteries, motor and sensory conduction velocities, and electrical studies were performed on a scheduled basis. Follow-up ranged between 14 and 58 months, with an average of 34.3 months. Three patients became worse and one improved during the study period. All others remained unchanged. Six patients returned to work, but only three returned to their original jobs. Although carpal tunnel syndrome does not appear to be a progressive condition once the triggering cause is removed, nonsurgical treatment does not seem to be the treatment of choice for patients who must continue in a manual labor position.

Characteristics of the most intense lightning storm ever recorded at the CN Tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussein, A. M.; Kazazi, S.; Anwar, M.; Yusouf, M.; Liatos, P.

2017-02-01

Lightning strikes to the CN Tower have been optically observed since 1978. In 1990, five independent systems started to operate to simultaneously record parameters of lightning strikes to the tower, including the time derivative of the current, the associated electric and magnetic fields, and the channel optical characteristics. On August 24, 2011, during an unusually severe lightning storm, video records showed that the CN Tower was struck with 52 lightning flashes within 84 min and 6.9 s. Thus, this storm produced, on average, a flash to the tower every 99 s. However, the CN Tower lightning current derivative measurement system only recorded 32 flashes, which were perfectly time-matched with 32 of the 52 video-recorded flashes. It is found that the current derivative measurement system recorded every video-recorded flash that contained at least one return stroke. Based on the analysis of video records, it is noted that each of the storm's 52 flashes contains an initial-stage current, proving that all flashes were upward initiated. This unique CN Tower storm - the most intense ever recorded at the tower - is here thoroughly analyzed, based on video and current records. The inter-flash time within the storm is found to vary between 10.6 s and 274 s, with an overall average of 98 s. It is also found that the inter-flash time between successive non-return-stroke flashes is on average 64% longer than that for successive flashes containing return strokes. Statistical analysis of video and current data clearly reveals that the time duration of flashes containing initial-stage currents and return strokes is on average 27% longer than that of flashes that only have initial-stage currents. Furthermore, it is important to note that the time duration of the initial-stage current in flashes containing no return strokes is on average 76% longer than that in flashes containing return strokes. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that if the time duration of the initial-stage current in a flash is long enough, resulting in large charge transfer, then there is less probability of having return strokes following it. The 32 current-recorded flashes contain a total of 156 return strokes, with an average multiplicity of 4.875. It is worth mentioning that during one decade, 1992-2001, the CN Tower current derivative measurement system only recorded 478 return strokes, demonstrating that the number of return strokes recorded at the tower within about 84 min is close to one third of those recorded at the tower during one decade. This finding clearly shows the great value and rarity of the presented extensive lightning current derivative data. Only one of the 32 current-recorded flashes is proved to be positive with a single return stroke. Based on current records, out of a total of 124 inter-stroke time intervals, 94% are found to be within 200 ms, with an overall inter-stroke time average of 68.1 ms. The maximum inter-stroke time recorded during this storm is 726.3 ms, the longest ever recorded at the CN Tower.

Supporting a Deep Space Gateway with Free-Return Earth-Moon Periodic Orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genova, A. L.; Dunham, D. W.; Hardgrove, C.

2018-02-01

Earth-Moon periodic orbits travel between the Earth and Moon via free-return circumlunar segments and can host a station that can provide architecture support to other nodes near the Moon and Mars while enabling science return from cislunar space.

Return period estimates for European windstorm clusters: a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Zimmerli, Peter

2017-04-01

Clusters of storms over Europe can lead to very large aggregated losses. Realistic return period estimates for such cluster are therefore of vital interest to the (re)insurance industry. Such return period estimates are usually derived from historical storm activity statistics of the last 30 to 40 years. However, climate models provide an alternative source, potentially representing thousands of simulated storm seasons. In this study, we made use of decadal hindcast data from eight different climate models in the CMIP5 archive. We used an objective tracking algorithm to identify individual windstorms in the climate model data. The algorithm also computes a (population density weighted) Storm Severity Index (SSI) for each of the identified storms (both on a continental and more regional basis). We derived return period estimates for the cluster seasons 1990, 1999, 2013/2014 and 1884 in the following way: For each climate model, we extracted two different exceedance frequency curves. The first describes the exceedance frequency (or the return period as the inverse of it) of a given SSI level due to an individual storm occurrence. The second describes the exceedance frequency of the seasonally aggregated SSI level (i.e. the sum of the SSI values of all storms in a given season). Starting from appropriate return period assumptions for each individual storm of a historical cluster (e.g. Anatol, Lothar and Martin in 1999) and using the first curve, we extracted the SSI levels at the corresponding return periods. Summing these SSI values results in the seasonally aggregated SSI value. Combining this with the second (aggregated) exceedance frequency curve results in return period estimate of the historical cluster season. Since we do this for each model separately, we obtain eight different return period estimates for each historical cluster. In this way, we obtained the following return period estimates: 50 to 80 years for the 1990 season, 20 to 45 years for the 1999 season, 3 to 4 years for the 2013/2014 season, and 14 to 16 years for the 1884 season. More detailed results show substantial variation between five different regions (UK, France, Germany, Benelux and Scandinavia), as expected from the path and footprints of the different events. For example, the 1990 season is estimated to be well beyond a 100-year season for Germany and Benelux. 1999 clearly was an extreme season for France, whereas the1884 was very disruptive for the UK. Such return period estimates can be used as an independent benchmark for other approaches quantifying clustering of European windstorms. The study might also serve as an example to derive similar risk measures also for other climate-related perils from a robust, publicly available data source.

Hydrologic Design in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, R. M.; Farmer, W. H.; Read, L.

2014-12-01

In an era dubbed the Anthropocene, the natural world is being transformed by a myriad of human influences. As anthropogenic impacts permeate hydrologic systems, hydrologists are challenged to fully account for such changes and develop new methods of hydrologic design. Deterministic watershed models (DWM), which can account for the impacts of changes in land use, climate and infrastructure, are becoming increasing popular for the design of flood and/or drought protection measures. As with all models that are calibrated to existing datasets, DWMs are subject to model error or uncertainty. In practice, the model error component of DWM predictions is typically ignored yet DWM simulations which ignore model error produce model output which cannot reproduce the statistical properties of the observations they are intended to replicate. In the context of hydrologic design, we demonstrate how ignoring model error can lead to systematic downward bias in flood quantiles, upward bias in drought quantiles and upward bias in water supply yields. By reincorporating model error, we document how DWM models can be used to generate results that mimic actual observations and preserve their statistical behavior. In addition to use of DWM for improved predictions in a changing world, improved communication of the risk and reliability is also needed. Traditional statements of risk and reliability in hydrologic design have been characterized by return periods, but such statements often assume that the annual probability of experiencing a design event remains constant throughout the project horizon. We document the general impact of nonstationarity on the average return period and reliability in the context of hydrologic design. Our analyses reveal that return periods do not provide meaningful expressions of the likelihood of future hydrologic events. Instead, knowledge of system reliability over future planning horizons can more effectively prepare society and communicate the likelihood of future hydrologic events of interest.

Modelling the ability of source control measures to reduce inundation risk in a community-scale urban drainage system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Shao, Weiwei; Xia, Lin; Xiang, Chenyao; Zhou, Jinjun

2018-06-01

Urban inundation is a serious challenge that increasingly confronts the residents of many cities, as well as policymakers, in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change worldwide. In recent years, source control measures (SCMs) such as green roofs, permeable pavements, rain gardens, and vegetative swales have been implemented to address flood inundation in urban settings, and proven to be cost-effective and sustainable. In order to investigate the ability of SCMs on reducing inundation in a community-scale urban drainage system, a dynamic rainfall-runoff model of a community-scale urban drainage system was developed based on SWMM. SCMs implementing scenarios were modelled under six design rainstorm events with return period ranging from 2 to 100 years, and inundation risks of the drainage system were evaluated before and after the proposed implementation of SCMs, with a risk-evaluation method based on SWMM and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Results show that, SCMs implementation resulting in significantly reduction of hydrological indexes that related to inundation risks, range of reduction rates of average flow, peak flow, and total flooded volume of the drainage system were 28.1-72.1, 19.0-69.2, and 33.9-56.0 %, respectively, under six rainfall events with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years. Corresponding, the inundation risks of the drainage system were significantly reduced after SCMs implementation, the risk values falling below 0.2 when the rainfall return period was less than 10 years. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of SCMs on mitigating inundation, and quantified the potential of SCMs on reducing inundation risks in the urban drainage system, which provided scientific references for implementing SCMs for inundation control of the study area.

Toxicological Assessment of ISS Air Quality: December 2011 to May 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.

2012-01-01

The toxicological assessment of 17 GSCs returned aboard Soyuz 28 and 29 from the ISS is shown in Table 1. The average recoveries of the 3 surrogate standards from the GSCs were as follows: (C-13)-acetone, 110%; fluorobenzene, 107%; and chlorobenzene, 99%. Recoveries from formaldehyde badges, which were returned on 29S, averaged 101%.

Note on a modified return period scale for upper-truncated unbounded flood distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardsley, Earl

2017-01-01

Probability distributions unbounded to the right often give good fits to annual discharge maxima. However, all hydrological processes are in reality constrained by physical upper limits, though not necessarily well defined. A result of this contradiction is that for sufficiently small exceedance probabilities the unbounded distributions anticipate flood magnitudes which are impossibly large. This raises the question of whether displayed return period scales should, as is current practice, have some given number of years, such as 500 years, as the terminating rightmost tick-point. This carries the implication that the scale might be extended indefinitely to the right with a corresponding indefinite increase in flood magnitude. An alternative, suggested here, is to introduce a sufficiently high upper truncation point to the flood distribution and modify the return period scale accordingly. The rightmost tick-mark then becomes infinity, corresponding to the upper truncation point discharge. The truncation point is likely to be set as being above any physical upper bound and the return period scale will change only slightly over all practical return periods of operational interest. The rightmost infinity tick point is therefore proposed, not as an operational measure, but rather to signal in flood plots that the return period scale does not extend indefinitely to the right.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L. K.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-11-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Generalized Pareto (GP) model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series X, with corresponding failure time series T, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with rich opportunities for future extensions.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

Career Length and Performance Among Professional Baseball Players Returning to Play After Hip Arthroscopy.

PubMed

Frangiamore, Salvatore J; Mannava, Sandeep; Briggs, Karen K; McNamara, Shannen; Philippon, Marc J

2018-05-01

Hip arthroscopy has been shown to be effective for management of symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) in professional athletes; however, it is unclear how hip arthroscopy affects career length and performance when professional baseball players return to play. To determine the career length, performance, and return-to-play rates of professional baseball players after undergoing arthroscopy for symptomatic FAI. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Forty-four professional baseball players (51 hips) underwent hip arthroscopy for FAI between 2000 and 2015 by a single surgeon. Data were retrieved for each player from MLB.com , MiLB.com , Baseballreference.com , and individual team websites. Age, surgical procedure, and intraoperative findings were also used in analysis. Return to play was defined as playing in a preseason or regular season major or minor league game after arthroscopy. Career length was measured as total years played before and after arthroscopy. Performance measures included earned run average for pitchers, batting average for position players, and games played for all players. Of the 44 players, there were 21 pitchers and 23 position players. Ninety-five percent (n = 42) were able to return to professional baseball after hip arthroscopy. The mean career length for all players was 9.5 years. The mean career length after return to play was 3.6 seasons (range, 1-14 seasons). Pitchers had a mean career length of 8.7 years (3.3 after surgery), and position players averaged a career length of 10 years (3.9 after surgery). There were no differences in performance measures between preinjury and postoperative values. Professional baseball players undergoing hip arthroscopy for FAI returned to sport and had similar performance as they did before injury. The average career length was 9.5 years. In our study cohort, more pitchers than position players underwent hip arthroscopy. Hip arthroscopy appears to be an effective surgical intervention, allowing for return to play after complete recovery.

Barefoot and in a German kitchen: federal parental leave and benefit policy and the return to work after childbirth in Germany.

PubMed

Ondrich, J; Spiess, C K; Yang, Q

1996-01-01

"Since 1979 German federal maternity leave and benefit policy has given women incentives to stay at home and take care of their newborn and youngest children. In 1986 this leave and benefit policy was changed in several ways, turning it into a powerful instrument for delaying mothers' return to work after childbirth.... We estimate post childbirth return to work hazards for women during the federally protected leave protection period and immediately upon completion of this leave period. During the leave mothers are less likely to return to work the longer is the time left in the leave protection period; however, this result cannot be attributed generally to high levels of maternity benefits. When the leave protection period ends, mothers with strong labor force attachment who are still on leave return to their jobs." excerpt

Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepek, A.; Wijnant, I. L.; van der Schrier, G.; van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-06-01

In this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries. This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu) were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and mountainous areas. We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning system.

Integrating Social Media and Anterior Cruciate Ligament Surgery: An Analysis of Patient, Surgeon, and Hospital Use.

PubMed

Ramkumar, Prem N; La, Ton; Fisch, Evan; Fabricant, Peter D; White, Alexander E; Jones, Kristofer J; Taylor, Samuel A

2017-03-01

The purpose of this observational study of social media in sports medicine was to investigate and analyze the presence and shared content of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) patients, sports surgeons, and top orthopaedic hospitals on popular social media streams. A search of 2 public domains (Instagram and Twitter) was performed over a 6-month period. ACL surgery ("#aclsurgery") was selected for the Instagram-based patient analysis after exclusion of veterinary ACL operations. A binary scoring system was used for media format, time (preoperatively or postoperatively), perioperative period (within 1 week of surgery), tone (positive or negative), return-to-work reference, return-to-play reference, rehabilitation reference, surgical-site reference, satisfaction reference, and dissatisfaction reference; perspective of the media was noted as well. A sample of 97 National Football League team surgeons was used for analysis of physician use in social media outlets and quantified by the number of posts. Hospital analysis categorized a sample of the top 50 orthopaedic hospitals by average number of posts and monthly posting rates with regard to orthopaedics, research, education, and personnel focus. In the patient analysis, 3,145 public posts of human subjects were shared on Instagram. Of these, 92% were personal recovery stories, with an emphasis on postoperative photographs (93%) with a positive tone (88%) more than 1 week after surgery (73%). Posts focused on surgical site (25%), return to play (30%), and postoperative rehabilitation (37%). Of the physicians, 16% had Twitter accounts, with an average of 94 posts per surgeon; none had Instagram accounts. Of the hospitals, 96% had Twitter accounts and 32% had Instagram accounts. Most of the hospital-based Instagram content in the sample was centered on patients or celebrities. Orthopaedic surgery has a large social media presence. Patients emphasize wound appearance, the rehabilitation process, and return to play. Ninety-six percent of hospitals are represented in social media outlets, whereas physicians are relatively under-represented. Social media offers a unique window into what truly matters to patients after surgery and may help us better manage expectations, enhance health care delivery, and improve marketing strategies. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Primary Arthrodesis versus Open Reduction and Internal Fixation for Low-Energy Lisfranc Injuries in a Young Athletic Population.

PubMed

Cochran, Grant; Renninger, Christopher; Tompane, Trevor; Bellamy, Joseph; Kuhn, Kevin

2017-09-01

There are 2 Level I studies comparing open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) and primary arthrodesis (PA) in high-energy Lisfranc injuries. There are no studies comparing ORIF and PA in young athletic patients with low-energy injuries. All operatively managed low-energy Lisfranc injuries sustained by active duty military personnel at a single institution were identified from 2010 to 2015. The injury pattern, method of treatment, and complications were reviewed. Implant removal rates, fitness test scores, return to military duty rates, and Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM) scores were compared. Thirty-two patients were identified with the average age of 28 years. PA was performed in 14 patients with ORIF in 18. The PA group returned to full duty at an average of 4.5 months whereas the ORIF group returned at an average of 6.7 months ( P = .0066). The PA group ran their fitness test an average of 9 seconds per mile slower than their preoperative average whereas the ORIF group ran it an average of 39 seconds slower per mile ( P = .032). There were no differences between the 2 groups in the FAAM scores at an average of 35 months. Implant removal was performed in 15 (83%) in the ORIF group and 2 (14%) in the PA group ( P = .005). Low-energy Lisfranc injuries treated with primary arthrodesis had a lower implant removal rate, an earlier return to full military activity, and better fitness test scores after 1 year, but there was no difference in FAAM scores after 3 years. Level III, comparative cohort study.

The timing of cortical granule fusion, content dispersal, and endocytosis during fertilization of the hamster egg: an electrophysiological and histochemical study.

PubMed

Kline, D; Stewart-Savage, J

1994-03-01

To determine the temporal relationship between cortical granule exocytosis and the repetitive calcium transients, which are characteristic of mammalian fertilization, we monitored membrane addition from exocytosis during fertilization of hamster eggs. Continuous measurement of membrane capacitance by applying a 3.1-nA alternating current at 375 Hz showed addition of cortical granule membrane. Simultaneous measurement of membrane potential revealed each calcium transient by the appearance of transient hyperpolarizing responses due to calcium-activated potassium channels in the egg. The initial membrane capacitance of the eggs averaged 736 +/- 44 pF (mean +/- SD; n = 7) and an increase in capacitance of 61 +/- 19 pF occurred within 4 sec of the start of the first hyperpolarizing response (HR) after fertilization. Immediately after the first increase in capacitance there was a gradual decline in membrane capacitance in all eggs and in five/seven eggs the capacitance returned to the unfertilized level in 7.8 +/- 4.4 min. The gradual decline in capacitance after the first increase indicated endocytosis, which was confirmed by the internalization of fluorescently labeled dextran. Superimposed on the gradual decline in membrane capacitance were smaller increases in capacitance that occurred with the second and later HRs. The total increase in capacitance from the first three events averaged 72 +/- 19 pF, representing an average increase in capacitance of about 10% of the capacitance of the unfertilized egg. By labeling eggs before and after permeabilization with two different fluorochromes attached to Lens culinaris agglutinin, we demonstrate that the dispersal of the cortical granules contents does not occur immediately after exocytosis. Our results demonstrate that cortical granule exocytosis in hamster eggs is closely coupled to the periodic increases in calcium, that the contents of the cortical granules are slow to disperse, and that after exocytosis, the surface area of the egg returns to the unfertilized level because of a period of endocytosis.

Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.

PubMed

Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma

2016-11-01

This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.

Social Security: a financial appraisal for the median voter.

PubMed

Galasso, V

Several explanations have been proposed for why voters continue to support unfunded social security systems. Browning (1975) suggests that the extremely large unfunded pension systems of most democracies depend on the existence of a voting majority composed of middle-aged and older people who fail to fully internalize the cost of financing the system. In fact, when voting, economically rational workers consider only their current and future contributions to the system and their expected pension benefits--not their past contributions, which they regard as sunk costs. If, for a majority of voters, the expected continuation return from social security exceeds the return from alternative assets, an unfunded social security system is politically sustainable. This article explores the validity of Browning's proposition by quantifying the returns that U.S. voters in presidential elections from 1964 to 1996 have obtained, or expect to obtain, from Social Security. Did "investments" in Social Security outperform alternative forms of investment, such as mutual funds or pension funds, for a majority of the voters? What can be expected for the future? The U.S. Social Security system redistributes income within age cohorts on the basis of sex, income, and marital status. To account for some of these features, the median voter is represented by a family unit whose members--a husband who accounts for 70 percent of household earnings and a wife who accounts for 30 percent--make joint economic and voting decisions. Thus, retirement and survival benefits paid out to the spouse of an insured worker can be included in the calculation of Social Security returns. Interval estimates of voters' family incomes from the U.S. Census Bureau were used to obtain the median voter's household earnings. The median voter's age is derived from the ages of those who voted in presidential elections, not from the ages of the entire electorate. The median voter's contributions to Social Security are the product of the joint employer/employee Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) tax rate and employee earnings. Data on actual contributions are available for median voters in the 1964 to 1976 elections; Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates are used for future tax rates and average wage growth rates. Data on actual old-age, retirement, and survivor benefits, as well as estimates of future benefits, are also available from SSA. Analysis of ex-post returns from "investing" in Social Security and from a buy-and-hold strategy applied to three alternative assets--the Standard & Poor's Composite Index (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and U.S. government bonds--shows surprising results. In 1964 and 1968, Social Security largely outperformed the other three assets. In 1972, Social Security and the stock market performed almost equally. In 1976, however, the median voter would have been better off in the stock market. The expected returns for median voters in later elections cannot be directly compared with realized returns from alternative assets. However, estimates range from 5.7 percent in 1984 to 7.0 percent in 1996 and thus compare favorably with average returns of 5.6 percent for S&P, 5.3 percent for DJIA, and 2.1 percent for government bonds over the 1964-1996 period. Although these findings must be taken with caution since they compare ex-post returns, they show that, despite a continuous reduction in profitability, Social Security still represents a safe, high-return asset for a majority of families.

Mid-Term Outcomes After Open Reduction Internal Fixation of Proximal Interphalangeal Joint Dorsal Fracture-Dislocations Through a Volar, Shotgun Approach and a Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Giugale, Juan Marcelo; Wang, Juntian; Kaufmann, Robert A.; Fowler, John R.

2017-01-01

Background: Proximal interphalangeal (PIP) fracture dislocations remain a complex injury pattern to treat. There are several treatment methods available aimed to restore stability, preserve range of motion, and reconstitute the articular surface. This study looked at the mid-term clinical and radiographic results of open reduction internal fixation through a shotgun approach of comminuted PIP fracture dislocations. Methods: A retrospective review was conducted of all PIP fracture dislocations treated through a volar, shotgun approach at a single institution over a 15-year period. Patients identified were contacted and asked to return to the office for clinical and radiographic evaluation. Patient reported outcomes were assessed with the Michigan hand questionnaire (MHQ) and visual analog scale (VAS) for pain. Results: 5 patients returned to the office for further evaluation with average follow-up of 69 months (range, 33-133 months). 3 patients were found to have post traumatic arthritis on radiographs. 1 case had recurrent instability and one case had a deep infection, both necessitating further surgical intervention. Average PIP arc of motion was found to be 79°. Average VAS score of 0 and MHQ result of 95 (out of a possible score of 100) indicating no residual pain and excellent functionality of the affected hand. Conclusion: Open reduction internal fixation of comminuted PIP fracture dislocations utilizing the volar, shotgun approach provides excellent mid-term functional results despite the high incidence of post traumatic arthritis. PMID:29151999

Modelling of PM10 concentration for industrialized area in Malaysia: A case study in Shah Alam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

N, Norazian Mohamed; Abdullah, M. M. A.; Tan, Cheng-yau; Ramli, N. A.; Yahaya, A. S.; Fitri, N. F. M. Y.

In Malaysia, the predominant air pollutants are suspended particulate matter (SPM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This research is on PM10 as they may trigger harm to human health as well as environment. Six distributions, namely Weibull, log-normal, gamma, Rayleigh, Gumbel and Frechet were chosen to model the PM10 observations at the chosen industrial area i.e. Shah Alam. One-year period hourly average data for 2006 and 2007 were used for this research. For parameters estimation, method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was selected. Four performance indicators that are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and prediction accuracy (PA), were applied to determine the goodness-of-fit criteria of the distributions. The best distribution that fits with the PM10 observations in Shah Alamwas found to be log-normal distribution. The probabilities of the exceedences concentration were calculated and the return period for the coming year was predicted from the cumulative density function (cdf) obtained from the best-fit distributions. For the 2006 data, Shah Alam was predicted to exceed 150 μg/m3 for 5.9 days in 2007 with a return period of one occurrence per 62 days. For 2007, the studied area does not exceed the MAAQG of 150 μg/m3

27 CFR 53.153 - Time for filing returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and Other Administrative Provisions of Special Application to Manufacturers Taxes § 53.153 Time for... period. (b) Monthly, semimonthly and annual returns—(1) Monthly returns. Each return required to be made under § 53.151(b) for a monthly period shall be filed not later than the 15th day of the month following...

Hip Arthroscopy in High-Level Baseball Players.

PubMed

Byrd, J W Thomas; Jones, Kay S

2015-08-01

To report the results of hip arthroscopy among high-level baseball players as recorded by outcome scores and return to baseball. All patients undergoing hip arthroscopy were prospectively assessed with the modified Harris Hip Score. On review of all procedures performed over a 12-year period, 44 hips were identified among 41 intercollegiate or professional baseball players who had achieved 2-year follow-up. Among the 41 players, follow-up averaged 45 months (range, 24 to 120 months), with a mean age of 23 years (range, 18 to 34 years). There were 23 collegiate (1 bilateral) and 18 professional (2 bilateral) baseball players, including 10 Major League Baseball players. Of the 8 Major League Baseball pitchers, 6 (75%) also underwent ulnar collateral ligament elbow surgery. Improvement in the modified Harris Hip Score averaged 13 points (from 81 points preoperatively to 94 points postoperatively); a paired-samples t test determined that this mean improvement of 13 points was statistically significant (P < .001). Players returned to baseball after 42 of 44 procedures (95%) at a mean of 4.3 months (range, 3 to 8 months), with 90% regaining the ability to participate at their previous level of competition. There were no complications. Three players (1 bilateral) underwent repeat arthroscopy. This study supports the idea that arthroscopic treatment for a variety of hip pathologies in high-level baseball players provides a successful return to sport and improvement in functional outcome scores. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2015 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Photoelectric return-stroke velocity and peak current estimates in natural and triggered lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Douglas M.; Rust, W. David

1989-01-01

Two-dimensional photoelectric return stroke velocities from 130 strokes are presented, including 86 negative natural, 41 negative triggered, one positive triggered, and two positive natural return strokes. For strokes starting near the ground and exceeding 500 m in length, the average velocity is 1.3 + or - 0.3 X 10 to the 8th m/s for natural return strokes and 1.2 + or - 0.3 X 10 to the 8th m/s for triggered return strokes. For strokes with lengths less than 500 m, the average velocities are slightly higher. Using the transmission line model (TLM), the shortest segment one-dimensional return stroke velocity, and either the maximum or plateau electric field, it is shown that natural strokes have a peak current distribution that is lognormal with a median value of 16 kA (maximum E) or 12 kA (plateau E). Triggered lightning has a medium peak current value of 21 kA (maximum E) or 15 kA (plateau E). Correlations are found between TLM peak currents and velocities for triggered and natural subsequent return strokes, but not between TLM peak currents and natural first return stroke velocities.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Yao, Ning

2017-07-01

The proper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-year droughts and return periods is important for drought risk assessment. This study evaluated and compared the spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics and return periods within mainland China between 1961 and 2013. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Composite Index (CI) were calculated at multiple timescales, the run theory was used for objective identification and characterization of drought events while Kendall's τ method was used to analyze their dependencies. Within the univariate framework, marginal distributions of duration, severity, and peak were derived by fitting Exponential, Weibull and GDP distributions respectively and the drought return periods was investigated and mapped. Comparison of drought indices showed that SPEI and CI performed better than SPI in delineating spatial patterns of drought characteristics. This might be attributed to the temperature effect on evapotranspiration and therefore on drought index. Considering the increasing trend in reference evapotranspiration in the 21st century, the importance of utilizing temperature-based drought index is imperative. Severe and extreme droughts occurred in the late 1990s in many places in China while persistent multi-year severe droughts occurred more frequently over North China, Northeast China, Northwest China and Southwest China. The spatial patterns showed that regions characterized by higher drought severity were associated with higher drought duration. The North China, Northwest China, and Southwest China had much longer drought durations during the 1990s and 2000s. As droughts normally cover large areas, regional drought return periods has been showed to be more effective in providing support for drought management than station based drought return periods. Studies on the spatial comparability of drought return periods across mainland China have therefore been undertaken for drought mitigation and effective utilization of water resources.

Understanding the milk-to-feed price ratio as a proxy for dairy farm profitability.

PubMed

Wolf, C A

2010-10-01

This research examines the definition, historical pattern, and utility of the milk-to-feed price ratio (MF) as a measure of dairy farm profitability. The MF was generally an acceptable proxy of profitability in an annual sense from 1985 to 2006. The MF was steady at an average of 2.8 from 1985 to 2006 even as average annual milk price in nominal terms increased from $12 to $14/hundredweight. An alternative proxy for profitability is income over feed costs, which is measured in dollars per hundredweight. Comparison with an actual profit measure, rate of return on assets, is used to examine the appropriateness of the proxies. The volatility from 2007 to 2009 resulted in MF being a poor measure of profitability over that period. The implication is that MF is not the preferred measure of profitability when a significant change in the pattern of one or both price series occurs. Income over feed cost is a better measure of profitability in periods of volatility. Copyright © 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can Thin-lipped Mullet Directly Exploit the Primary and Detritic Production of European Macrotidal Salt Marshes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laffaille, P.; Feunteun, E.; Lefebvre, C.; Radureau, A.; Sagan, G.; Lefeuvre, J.-C.

2002-04-01

Juveniles and adults (>100 mm) of Liza ramada colonize macrotidal salt marsh creeks of Mont Saint-Michel bay (France) between March and November, during spring tide floods (43% of the tides) and return to coastal waters during the ebb. This fish species actively feeds during its short stay in the creek (from 1 to 2 h). On average, each fish swallows sediment including living and inert organic matter, which amounts to 8% of its fresh body weight. Their diet is dominated by small benthic items (especially diatoms and salt marsh plant detritus), that correspond to the primary and detritic production of this macrotidal salt marsh creek. Despite very short submersion periods, mullets filter and ingest large quantities of sediment and concentrated organic matter (on average organic matter in stomach content is 31%) produced by these coastal wetlands. European salt marshes are thus shown to act as trophic areas for mullets, which are well adapted to this constraining habitat which is only flooded for short periods during spring tides.

[Minimally invasive reconstruction of the posterolateral corner with simultaneous replacement of the anterior cruciate ligament for complex knee ligament injuries].

PubMed

Vega-España, E A; Vilchis-Sámano, H; Ruiz-Mejía, O

2017-01-01

To evaluate and describe the results of a simultaneous reconstruction with minimally invasive technique of the posterolateral complex (PLC) and the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). ACL and PLC reconstruction was performed in seven patients using the technique described, in the period from March to November 2012. All patients were evaluated at six months after the procedure using IKDC and IKSS subjective tests. Their return to work activities and their level of satisfaction were assessed. Six male and one female patients ranging in age between 26 and 46 years were evaluated. The injuries were mostly caused by sports related accidents. All patients were economically active and required an average period of three months of disability. The assessment and outcomes at six months, according to the IKDC scale, were: one patient with IKDC A, four with IKDC B, one patient with C, and one with D. In the subjective scale IKSS, 80% averaged a knee stability of over 90 points, a patient had a 100-point scale and another, of 70 points.

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Faunt, Claudia C.; Lear, Jonathan; Lockwood, Brian

2014-01-01

The HS-ASR was simulated for the years 2002–09, and replaced about about 1,290 acre-ft of coastal pumpage. This was combined with the simulation of additional 6,200 acre-ft of deliveries from supplemental wells, recycled water, and city connection deliveries through the CDS that also supplanted some coastal pumpage. Total simulated deliveries were 7,350 acre-ft of the 7,500 acre-ft of reported deliveries for the period 2002-09. The completed CDS should be capable of delivering about 8.8 million cubic meters (7,150 acre-ft) of water per year to coastal farms within the Pajaro Valley, if all the local supply components were fully available for this purpose. This would represent about 15 percent of the 48,300 acre-ft (59.6 million cubic meters) average agricultural pumpage for the period 2005 to 2009. Combined with the potential capture and reuse of some of the return flows and tile-drain flows, this could represent an almost 70 percent reduction of average overdraft for the entire valley and a large part of the coastal pumpage that induces seawater intrusion.

Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsner, J. B.; Jagger, T. H.; Widen, H. M.; Chavas, D. R.

2014-01-01

The authors examine daily tornado counts in the United States over the period 1994-2012 and find strong evidence for a power-law relationship in the distribution frequency. The scaling exponent is estimated at 1.64 (0.019 s.e.) giving a per tornado-day probability of 0.014% (return period of 71 years) that a tornado day produces 145 tornadoes as was observed on 27 April 2011. They also find that the total number of tornadoes by damage category on days with at least one violent tornado follows an exponential rule. On average, the daily number of tornadoes in the next lowest damage category is approximately twice the number in the current category. These findings are important and timely for tornado hazard models and for seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts of tornado activity.

[Imported malaria in Geneva between 2005 and 2016].

PubMed

Cordaillat, Romain; Delaporte, Elisabeth; Chappuis, François

2018-05-02

As part of the epidemiological surveillance of malaria, cases reported in Geneva during the period 2005‑2016 were analyzed and compared to a similar retrospective study covering the period 1998‑2004. A total of 600 cases were reported, averaging 50 cases per year. African patients traveling to visit friends and relatives remain at particular risk. The disease was acquired in Africa in 89,6% of cases and Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant species (84,2 %). 41% of patients did not benefit from a pre-travel consultation. The recent rise in imported malaria observed in Geneva since 2014 is a reminder of the need to apply effective prevention measures (chemoprophylaxis) in highly endemic countries, and to train all physicians to screen for malaria all febrile travelers returning from the tropics.

Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Methods Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. Results A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11–3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13–24 months (3.03 [1.52–6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14–13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. Conclusion RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. PMID:29215811

Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases.

PubMed

Jeong, Inchul; Park, Jae Bum; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Yoon, Jin Ha; Won, Jong Uk; Roh, Jaehoon

2018-01-01

Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11-3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13-24 months (3.03 [1.52-6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14-13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Effectiveness of and Financial Returns to Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in South Africa: An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Haacker, Markus; Fraser-Hurt, Nicole; Gorgens, Marelize

2016-05-01

Empirical studies and population-level policy simulations show the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in generalized epidemics. This paper complements available scenario-based studies (projecting costs and outcomes over some policy period, typically spanning decades) by adopting an incremental approach-analyzing the expected consequences of circumcising one male individual with specific characteristics in a specific year. This approach yields more precise estimates of VMMC's cost-effectiveness and identifies the outcomes of current investments in VMMC (e.g., within a fiscal budget period) rather than of investments spread over the entire policy period. The model has three components. We adapted the ASSA2008 model, a demographic and epidemiological model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, to analyze the impact of one VMMC on HIV incidence over time and across the population. A costing module tracked the costs of VMMC and the resulting financial savings owing to reduced HIV incidence over time. Then, we used several financial indicators to assess the cost-effectiveness of and financial return on investments in VMMC. One circumcision of a young man up to age 20 prevents on average over 0.2 HIV infections, but this effect declines steeply with age, e.g., to 0.08 by age 30. Net financial savings from one VMMC at age 20 are estimated at US$617 at a discount rate of 5% and are lower for circumcisions both at younger ages (because the savings occur later and are discounted more) and at older ages (because male circumcision becomes less effective). Investments in male circumcision carry a financial rate of return of up to 14.5% (for circumcisions at age 20). The cost of a male circumcision is refinanced fastest, after 13 y, for circumcisions at ages 20 to 25. Principal limitations of the analysis arise from the long time (decades) over which the effects of VMMC unfold-the results are therefore sensitive to the discount rate applied, and more generally to the future course of the epidemic and of HIV/AIDS-related policies pursued by the government. VMMC in South Africa is highly effective in reducing both HIV incidence and the financial costs of the HIV response. The return on investment is highest if males are circumcised between ages 20 and 25, but this return on investment declines steeply with age.

The Function of Credit Scheme to Improve Family Income among Beef Cattle Farmers in Central Java Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, E.; Ekowati, T.; Roessali, W.; Gayatri, S.

2018-02-01

The aims of study were: (i) identify of beef cattle fattening credit scheme, (ii) calculating and analyze of beef cattle farmers’ income, (iii) analyze of factors influencing beef cattle credit scheme towards farmer’s income. The research was held in five regencies in Central Java Province. Beef cattle fattening farm was standardized as an elementary unit. Survey method was used, while Two Stage Cluster Purposive Sampling was used for determining of sample. Data were analyzed using statistical method of quantitative descriptive and inferential statistics in term of income analysis and multiple linear regression models. The result showed that farmers used their own capital to run the farm. The average amount was IDR 10,769,871. Kredit Ketahanan Pangan dan Energi was credit scheme which was dominantly access by farmers. The average credit was IDR 23,312,200/farmer with rate of credit equal to 6.46%, the time of credit returning equal to 24.60 monthand the prediction of average collateral equal to IDR 35,800,00. The average of farmers’ income was IDR 4,361,611.60/2.96 head of beef cattle/fattening period. If the labour cost did not calculate as a cost production, hence the farmer’ income was IDR 7,608,630.41 or in other word the farmer’ income increase 74.44%. Factors of credit scheme which partially significant influence to the farmers’ income were number of own capital usage and value of credit collateral. Meanwhile, name of credit scheme, financing institution as a creditor, amount of credit, rate of credit scheme and time of returning credit were not significantly influence towards farmers’ income.

Quantified moving average strategy of crude oil futures market based on fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojia; An, Haizhong; Wang, Lijun; Guan, Qing

2017-09-01

The moving average strategy is a technical indicator that can generate trading signals to assist investment. While the trading signals tell the traders timing to buy or sell, the moving average cannot tell the trading volume, which is a crucial factor for investment. This paper proposes a fuzzy moving average strategy, in which the fuzzy logic rule is used to determine the strength of trading signals, i.e., the trading volume. To compose one fuzzy logic rule, we use four types of moving averages, the length of the moving average period, the fuzzy extent, and the recommend value. Ten fuzzy logic rules form a fuzzy set, which generates a rating level that decides the trading volume. In this process, we apply genetic algorithms to identify an optimal fuzzy logic rule set and utilize crude oil futures prices from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) as the experiment data. Each experiment is repeated for 20 times. The results show that firstly the fuzzy moving average strategy can obtain a more stable rate of return than the moving average strategies. Secondly, holding amounts series is highly sensitive to price series. Thirdly, simple moving average methods are more efficient. Lastly, the fuzzy extents of extremely low, high, and very high are more popular. These results are helpful in investment decisions.

On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Timothy M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.

2012-12-01

The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses due to events of varying severities and recurrence intervals, annual premium rates can be set with some longer term risk planning in mind. However, this metric is particularly sensitive to high frequency, moderate magnitude events. Inclusion of earthquake aftershock sequence characteristics into the stochastic event set may have a strong impact on the AAL, depending on the time window of aftershocks that is taken into account. We will present our model of the aftershock-derived, time-dependent hazard for the region of the two earthquakes and will bring about a detailed view on regional, short-term hazard. Dealing with this short-term hazard poses a challenge to the earthquake insurance business. In this presentation we will look at these short-term hazard changes from a risk perspective and quantify the impact on earthquake risk in terms of the main risk metrics used in the industry.

TEP Power Partners Project [Tucson Electric Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None, None

2014-02-06

The Arizona Governor’s Office of Energy Policy, in partnership with Tucson Electric Power (TEP), Tendril, and Next Phase Energy (NPE), formed the TEP Power Partners pilot project to demonstrate how residential customers could access their energy usage data and third party applications using data obtained from an Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) network. The project applied for and was awarded a Smart Grid Data Access grant through the U.S. Department of Energy. The project participants’ goal for Phase I is to actively engage 1,700 residential customers to demonstrate sustained participation, reduction in energy usage (kWh) and cost ($), and measure relatedmore » aspects of customer satisfaction. This Demonstration report presents a summary of the findings, effectiveness, and customer satisfaction with the 15-month TEP Power Partners pilot project. The objective of the program is to provide residential customers with energy consumption data from AMR metering and empower these participants to better manage their electricity use. The pilot recruitment goals included migrating 700 existing customers from the completed Power Partners Demand Response Load Control Project (DRLC), and enrolling 1,000 new participants. Upon conclusion of the project on November 19, 2013; 1,390 Home Area Networks (HANs) were registered; 797 new participants installed a HAN; Survey respondents’ are satisfied with the program and found value with a variety of specific program components; Survey respondents report feeling greater control over their energy usage and report taking energy savings actions in their homes after participating in the program; On average, 43 % of the participants returned to the web portal monthly and 15% returned weekly; and An impact evaluation was completed by Opinion Dynamics and found average participant savings for the treatment period1 to be 2.3% of their household use during this period.2 In total, the program saved 163 MWh in the treatment period of 2013.« less

Scheduling periodic jobs using imprecise results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Jen-Yao; Liu, Jane W. S.; Lin, Kwei-Jay

1987-01-01

One approach to avoid timing faults in hard, real-time systems is to make available intermediate, imprecise results produced by real-time processes. When a result of the desired quality cannot be produced in time, an imprecise result of acceptable quality produced before the deadline can be used. The problem of scheduling periodic jobs to meet deadlines on a system that provides the necessary programming language primitives and run-time support for processes to return imprecise results is discussed. Since the scheduler may choose to terminate a task before it is completed, causing it to produce an acceptable but imprecise result, the amount of processor time assigned to any task in a valid schedule can be less than the amount of time required to complete the task. A meaningful formulation of the scheduling problem must take into account the overall quality of the results. Depending on the different types of undesirable effects caused by errors, jobs are classified as type N or type C. For type N jobs, the effects of errors in results produced in different periods are not cumulative. A reasonable performance measure is the average error over all jobs. Three heuristic algorithms that lead to feasible schedules with small average errors are described. For type C jobs, the undesirable effects of errors produced in different periods are cumulative. Schedulability criteria of type C jobs are discussed.

Updated Estimates of the Average Financial Return on Master's Degree Programs in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gándara, Denisa; Toutkoushian, Robert K.

2017-01-01

In this study, we provide updated estimates of the private and social financial return on enrolling in a master's degree program in the United States. In addition to returns for all fields of study, we show estimated returns to enrolling in master's degree programs in business and education, specifically. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to…

Return to play after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in major league baseball athletes.

PubMed

Fabricant, Peter D; Chin, Christopher S; Conte, Stan; Coleman, Struan H; Pearle, Andrew D; Dines, Joshua S

2015-05-01

The purpose of the study was to (1) investigate the rate of return to play among Major League Baseball (MLB) athletes after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR), (2) determine the impact of ACL injury on ability to perform baseball-specific planting and pivoting tasks (batting and stealing bases), and (3) to explore the effect of the injured side on these metrics. ACL injury data from 1999 to 2012 were compiled, along with player performance statistics recorded for players with at least 30 games before ACL injury. Predictor variables included side of injury and outcome variables focused on batting average, stolen bases, and number of times caught stealing before injury and after surgery. Twenty-three of 26 (88%) players were able to return to at least 30 games after ACLR, although they experienced a decline of 21.2% in number of games played (P = .004). Those who had a ACLR for a rear batting leg injury averaged a 12.3% decline in batting average, whereas those who had ACLR for a lead leg injury had a 6.4% increase in batting average (P = .04). Side of injury was not predictive of stolen base metrics. The overall rate of return to play among MLB position players after ACLR was 88%, although there was a 21.2% decline in the number of games played postoperatively. Injury to the rear batting leg resulted in a lower returning batting average compared with an injury to the lead batting leg. Side of injury had no effect on stolen bases or on the number of times a player was caught stealing. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2015 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

26 CFR 1.443-1 - Returns for periods of less than 12 months.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

....443-1 Section 1.443-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Accounting Periods § 1.443-1 Returns for periods of less than 12...-2. The computation of the tax for a short period required to effect a change of annual accounting...

Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addepalli, Rajendra P.

This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using new security issuances, dividend payments and revenues of the companies.

Steroid injection and needle aponeurotomy for Dupuytren disease: long-term follow-up of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

McMillan, Catherine; Binhammer, Paul

2014-10-01

To compare long-term outcomes and retreatment rates for patients with Dupuytren disease who underwent needle aponeurotomy (NA) combined with a series of triamcinolone acetonide injections or underwent NA alone as part of a prior randomized controlled trial. During this follow-up study, 44 of 47 participants in the original study were examined as needed between 6 and 53 months from their initial procedure. Those who had not been reassessed within 18 months of the original NA were asked to return for follow-up. The average total active extension deficit (TAED) of previously treated joints was compared between groups 7 to 12, 13 to 24, 25 to 36, and 37 to 48 months following treatment. Timing of retreatment (if performed) was recorded. Forty-four participants returned for assessment an average of 4.8 times over 53 months. Mean TAED was significantly less in needle aponeurotomy triamcinolone injection patients at 6 months and between 13 and 24 months. Sixty-two percent of NA group patients and 30% of needle aponeurotomy triamcinolone injection patients returned for a second treatment on the same digit(s) (retreatment). This difference was not significant. Mean time to retreatment and mean TAED immediately prior to retreatment did not differ significantly between groups. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates demonstrated a significantly higher percentage of NA group patients expected to return for retreatment by 24 but not by 36 months. Younger age, more than one joint treated at the initial NA, and TAED severity throughout the follow-up period were associated with earlier retreatment. Serial triamcinolone injections combined with NA was associated with lower TAED for up to 24 months. A larger study would more accurately quantify the potential benefits of combining triamcinolone injections with NA for treatment of Dupuytren disease. Therapeutic III. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mental health of refugees following state-sponsored repatriation from Germany

PubMed Central

von Lersner, Ulrike; Elbert, Thomas; Neuner, Frank

2008-01-01

Background In recent years, Voluntary Assisted Return Programmes (VARPs) have received increasing funding as a potential way of reducing the number of refugees in EU member states. A number of factors may affect the mental well-being of returnees. These include adjustment to the home country following return, difficult living conditions, and long-term effects resulting from the severe traumatic stress that had originally driven the affected out of their homes. Little is known about the extent to which these and other factors may promote or inhibit the willingness of refugees to return to their country of origin. The present pilot study investigated refugees who returned to their country of origin after having lived in exile in Germany for some 13 years. Methods Forty-seven VARP participants were interviewed concerning their present living conditions, their views of their native country, and their attitudes towards a potential return prior to actually returning. 33 participants were interviewed nine months after returning to their country of origin. Mental health and well-being were assessed using the questionnaires Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PDS) and EUROHIS and the structured Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I.). Our objectives were to examine the mental health status of refugees returning to their home country following an extended period of exile. We also aimed to assess the circumstances under which people decided to return, the current living conditions in their home country, and retrospective returnee evaluations of their decision to accept assisted return. Results Prior to returning to their home country, participants showed a prevalence rate of 53% for psychiatric disorders. After returning, this rate increased to a sizeable 88%. Substantial correlations were found between the living situation in Germany, the disposition to return, and mental health. For two thirds of the participants, the decision to return was not voluntary. Conclusion Psychological strain among study participants was of a considerable magnitude. As a result of traumatic stress experienced during war and refuge, victims were vulnerable and not well equipped to cope with either post-migration stressors in exile or with a return to their country of origin. It is noteworthy that the majority returned under pressure from immigration authorities. Living conditions after return (such as housing, work, and health care) were poor and unstable. Participants also had great difficulty readapting to the cultural environment after having lived abroad for an average of 13 years. Current VARPs do not take these factors into account and are therefore not able to assist in a humanitarian reintegration of voluntary returnees. PMID:19000300

Mental health of refugees following state-sponsored repatriation from Germany.

PubMed

von Lersner, Ulrike; Elbert, Thomas; Neuner, Frank

2008-11-10

In recent years, Voluntary Assisted Return Programmes (VARPs) have received increasing funding as a potential way of reducing the number of refugees in EU member states. A number of factors may affect the mental well-being of returnees. These include adjustment to the home country following return, difficult living conditions, and long-term effects resulting from the severe traumatic stress that had originally driven the affected out of their homes. Little is known about the extent to which these and other factors may promote or inhibit the willingness of refugees to return to their country of origin. The present pilot study investigated refugees who returned to their country of origin after having lived in exile in Germany for some 13 years. Forty-seven VARP participants were interviewed concerning their present living conditions, their views of their native country, and their attitudes towards a potential return prior to actually returning. 33 participants were interviewed nine months after returning to their country of origin. Mental health and well-being were assessed using the questionnaires Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PDS) and EUROHIS and the structured Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I.).Our objectives were to examine the mental health status of refugees returning to their home country following an extended period of exile. We also aimed to assess the circumstances under which people decided to return, the current living conditions in their home country, and retrospective returnee evaluations of their decision to accept assisted return. Prior to returning to their home country, participants showed a prevalence rate of 53% for psychiatric disorders. After returning, this rate increased to a sizeable 88%. Substantial correlations were found between the living situation in Germany, the disposition to return, and mental health. For two thirds of the participants, the decision to return was not voluntary. Psychological strain among study participants was of a considerable magnitude. As a result of traumatic stress experienced during war and refuge, victims were vulnerable and not well equipped to cope with either post-migration stressors in exile or with a return to their country of origin. It is noteworthy that the majority returned under pressure from immigration authorities. Living conditions after return (such as housing, work, and health care) were poor and unstable. Participants also had great difficulty readapting to the cultural environment after having lived abroad for an average of 13 years. Current VARPs do not take these factors into account and are therefore not able to assist in a humanitarian reintegration of voluntary returnees.

Transaction fees and optimal rebalancing in the growth-optimal portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yu; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2011-05-01

The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and numerically verified for broad return distributions and returns generated by a GARCH process. Finally we study the case when investment is rebalanced only partially and show that this strategy can improve the investment long-term growth rate more than optimization of the rebalancing period.

Examples of mesoscale structures and short-term wind variations detected by VHF Doppler radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.

1986-01-01

The first of three wind profilers planned for operation in central and western Pennsylvania began full-time, high-quality operation during July 1985. It is located about 20 km south-southeast of University Park and operates at 50 MHz. Another 50-MHz radar and a 400-MHz radar are to be installed over the next few months, to complete a mesoscale triangle with sides of 120 to 160 km. During the period since early July, a number of weather systems have passed over the wind profiler. Those accompanied by thunderstorms caused data losses either because the Department computer system lost power or because power went out at the profiler site. A backup power supply and an automatic re-start program will be added to the profiler system to minimize such future losses. Data have normally been averaged over a one-hour period, although there have been some investigations of shorter-period averaging. In each case, preliminary examinations reveal that the profiler winds are indicative of meteorological phenomena. The only occasions of bad or missing data are obtained when airplane noise is occasionally experienced and when the returned power is nearly at the noise level, at the upper few gates, where a consensus wind cannot be determined. Jets streams, clouds, and diurnal variations of winds are discussed.

The spontaneous return of sensibility in breasts reconstructed with autologous tissues.

PubMed

Shaw, W W; Orringer, J S; Ko, C Y; Ratto, L L; Mersmann, C A

1997-02-01

Some spontaneous return of sensibility following autologous tissue breast reconstruction is often suspected but not well documented. In the present study, objective touch-pressure, pain, temperature, and vibratory sensibilities were recorded in 33 autologous breast reconstructions at an average of 25.2 months postoperatively. Correlation of the sensory return with patients' satisfaction toward reconstruction was done by a detailed questionnaire. All except one patient regained a variety of sensibilities touch pressure in 97 percent of patients (averaging 81.05 gm/mm2 versus control of 7.98 gm/mm2), pain in 88 percent of patients, heat in 64 percent of patients (45 percent of quadrants), cold in 82 percent of patients (67 percent of quadrants), and high- and low-frequency vibration in 100 percent of patients (high in 90 percent of quadrants, low in 96 percent). Subjectively, 94 percent considered their chest comfortable to touch following reconstruction compared with 34 percent following mastectomy. On a scale from 1 to 10, patients rated their reconstructions an average of 9.3. Our findings confirm the spontaneous return of sensibility following a variety of autologous tissue breast reconstructions. The value of the sensory return is suggested by the high degree of satisfaction in nearly all patients. Further attempts to correlate the degree of sensory return with the degree of satisfaction were inconclusive because of the uniformly high satisfaction reported by the patients. The mechanism of reinnervation appears to come both from the skin margins and from the deep surface of the flap. Future developments in breast reconstruction should take into consideration the eventual quality of sensory return.

Exploring the Processes of Self-Development Encountered by Adult Returners to Higher Education: A Lifespan Psychology Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercer, Jenny

2010-01-01

Evidence indicates that non-traditional adult returners describe returning to education as a period of self-development and growth. However, lifespan psychology perspectives also show that successful growth and change involves periods of conflict. This paper will explore both the nature of self-development and conflicts experienced by a sample of…

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 4 - Adjustments for Additions and Withdrawals in the Computation of Rate of Return

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Return Method Rate of return for a period may be calculated by computing the net performance divided by the beginning net asset value for each trading day in the period and compounding each daily rate of... commodity pool operator or commodity trading advisor may present to the Commission proposals regarding any...

Variety and volatility in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2000-11-01

We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties of both a single time series and an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the n stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange to form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following these extreme events. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We observe that these moments fluctuate in time and are stochastic processes, themselves. We characterize the statistical properties of ensemble return distribution central moments by investigating their probability density functions and temporal correlation properties. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged price returns have different statistical properties. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between stocks and between different trading days. Last, we compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model cannot explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE PAGES

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-11

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

[Valenti method (PAD) as an assesment of polypropylene mesh fixing standarization in inguinal hernia repair].

PubMed

Mitura, Kryspin; Romańczuk, Mikołaj

2008-01-01

The introduction of synthetic materials in hernia surgery allowed accomplishing of the improved results. Modern procedures are based on tension-free technique. This rule has been entirely applied in the innovative Valenti hernia repair method--PAD (dynamic self-adapting prosthesis). To evaluate the initial results of performed treatment after Valenti inguinal hernia repair. Valenti hernia repair has been performed in 78 patients with inguinal hernia at Surgery Department in Siedlce Hospital between September 2006 and October 2007. The study consisted 73 male patients (93.6%) and 5 female patients (6.4%) aged between 27 and 82 years (average 56.3). Two complementary elements of mesh graft were applied at the surgery. Appropriate shape of polypropylene mesh has being acquired with the use of a special mold. We have analyzed the duration of the surgery and hospitalization, the occurrence of complications during and after the surgery, patients subjective evaluation of the surgery regarding pain and time of returning to normal physical activity, as well as hernia recurrence. Average duration time of surgery was 58 minutes (ranging from 35 to 110; median 50). The spinal anesthesia was a predominant type of anesthesia (71 patients: 91%), in remaining patients a general or local anesthesia has been performed. Mean hospitalization time reached 3.6 days (ranging from 2 to 6: median 4). One patient had a wound hematoma, in one case a scrotal edema was found in early postoperative period. No other typical local complications have developed. One week after the surgery patients described the pain intensification in ten-points scale VAS (0--no pain, 10--maximum pain). Most of the patients had no pain complaints (48 patients), VAS 1--23 patients. VAS 2--6 patients. VAS 3--1 patient. At this point 63 patients described the surgery results as very good. 15 patients--as good. The return to full daily activity has been achieved in 2.7 day after the surgery. Totally tension-free method of Valenti inguinal hernia repair provides patients with minimal pain in a postoperative period and allows a prompt return to the daily activity.

Predictors of Graduation of Readmitted "At Risk" College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkovitz, Roslyn A.; O'Quin, Karen

2007-01-01

We conducted an archival study of at-risk students who had "stopped out" of college for many reasons (academic dismissal, financial problems, personal problems, etc.) and who later were accepted to return to school. Approximately 27% of the accepted students chose not to return. Those who returned had higher grade point averages, had completed…

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Relationship of Intraoperative Cerebral Oxygen Saturation to Neurodevelopmental Outcome and Brain MRI at One Year of Age in Infants Undergoing Biventricular Repair

PubMed Central

Kussman, Barry D.; Wypij, David; Laussen, Peter C.; Soul, Janet S.; Bellinger, David C.; DiNardo, James A.; Robertson, Richard; Pigula, Frank A.; Jonas, Richard A.; Newburger, Jane W.

2010-01-01

Background Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) monitoring of cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2) has become routine in many centers, but no studies have reported the relationship of intraoperative NIRS to long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes after cardiac surgery. Methods and Results Of 104 infants undergoing biventricular repair without aortic arch reconstruction, 89 (86%) returned for neurodevelopmental testing at age 1 year. The primary NIRS variable was the integrated rSO2 (area under the curve) for rSO2 ≤ 45%; secondary variables were the average and minimum rSO2 by perfusion phase and at specific time points. Psychomotor (PDI) and Mental Development Indexes of the Bayley Scales, head circumference, neurologic examination, and abnormalities on brain MRI did not differ between subjects according to a threshold level for rSO2 of 45%. Lower PDI scores were modestly associated with lower average (r=0.23; P=0.03) and minimum rSO2 (r=0.22; P=0.04) during the 60 minute period following cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), but not with other perfusion phases. Hemosiderin foci on brain MRI were associated with lower average rSO2 from post-induction to 60 minutes post-CPB (71±10 vs. 78±6%; P=0.01), and lower average rSO2 during the rewarming phase (72±12 vs. 83±9%; P=0.003) and during the 60 minute period following CPB (65±11 vs. 75±10%; P=0.009). In regression analyses adjusting for age ≤ 30 days, PDI score (P=0.02) and brain hemosiderin (P=0.04) remained significantly associated with rSO2 during the 60 minute period following CPB. Conclusions Perioperative periods of diminished cerebral oxygen delivery, as indicated by rSO2, are associated with one-year PDI and brain MRI abnormalities among infants undergoing reparative heart surgery. Clinical Trial Registration Information http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00006183 PMID:20606124

Return to competition, re-injury, and impact on performance of preseason shoulder injuries in Major League Baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Makhni, Eric C; Lee, Randall W; Nwosu, Ekene O; Steinhaus, Michael E; Ahmad, Christopher S

2015-07-01

Major league baseball (MLB) pitchers are vulnerable to overuse injury of the upper extremity, especially in the shoulder. Injuries sustained in the preseason may have negative impact on performance following return. The goal of this study was to document the frequency of preseason shoulder injury in these athletes, as well as risk for re-injury and impact on performance following return from injury. A comprehensive search of MLB injury information from 2001 to 2010 of public databases yielded a cohort of MLB pitchers who sustained preseason shoulder injuries. These databases were utilized to obtain information regarding return to MLB competition, re-injury, and performance following return from injury. All performance metrics were compared to those of an age-matched control cohort. A total of 74 pitchers were identified who sustained a preseason shoulder injury. Only 39 (53%) returned that same season to pitch in the MLB competition. Of those that returned, nearly 50% of players were re-designated on the Disabled List during the return season. There was a decline in performance in earned run average and batting average against in the year of return. Compared to age-matched control pitchers, those with preseason shoulder injury had lower performance metrics across a number of outcomes. Preseason shoulder injury in MLB pitchers has the potential to result in high re-injury rates and decreased subsequent performance.

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ALCOHOL BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY ALCOHOL BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

27 CFR 25.164 - Quarterly and semimonthly returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Tax on Beer Preparation and Remittance of Tax Returns... on beer (unless prepaid) by return on Form 5000.24. The brewer shall file Form 5000.24 as a return... file a return on Form 5000.24 for each return period even though no beer was removed for consumption or...

Has the athlete trained enough to return to play safely? The acute:chronic workload ratio permits clinicians to quantify a player's risk of subsequent injury.

PubMed

Blanch, Peter; Gabbett, Tim J

2016-04-01

The return to sport from injury is a difficult multifactorial decision, and risk of reinjury is an important component. Most protocols for ascertaining the return to play status involve assessment of the healing status of the original injury and functional tests which have little proven predictive ability. Little attention has been paid to ascertaining whether an athlete has completed sufficient training to be prepared for competition. Recently, we have completed a series of studies in cricket, rugby league and Australian rules football that have shown that when an athlete's training and playing load for a given week (acute load) spikes above what they have been doing on average over the past 4 weeks (chronic load), they are more likely to be injured. This spike in the acute:chronic workload ratio may be from an unusual week or an ebbing of the athlete's training load over a period of time as in recuperation from injury. Our findings demonstrate a strong predictive (R(2)=0.53) polynomial relationship between acute:chronic workload ratio and injury likelihood. In the elite team setting, it is possible to quantify the loads we are expecting athletes to endure when returning to sport, so assessment of the acute:chronic workload ratio should be included in the return to play decision-making process. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Meteorology Assessment of Historic Rainfall for Los Alamos During September 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruggeman, David Alan; Dewart, Jean Marie

2016-02-12

DOE Order 420.1, Facility Safety, requires that site natural phenomena hazards be evaluated every 10 years to support the design of nuclear facilities. The evaluation requires calculating return period rainfall to determine roof loading requirements and flooding potential based on our on-site rainfall measurements. The return period rainfall calculations are done based on statistical techniques and not site-specific meteorology. This and future studies analyze the meteorological factors that produce the significant rainfall events. These studies provide the meteorology context of the return period rainfall events.

[Danish experience with physical and occupational rehabilitation after heart transplantation. The heart transplantation group at Rigshospitalet].

PubMed

Aldershvile, J; Boesgaard, S; Kirchoff, G; Arendrup, H; Høyer, S

1993-01-11

Heart transplantations have been carried out for one year (1.9.1990-1.9.1991) in Denmark. Twenty-three out of 27 patients survived at the end of this period. Prior to transplantation, all of the patients were in NYHA groups III or IV. On discharge, all of the patients could manage a 45-60 minutes training programme followed by a stair test (two to six floors up). Prior to transplantation, 17 patients received financial aid in one form or another and one child received special schooling. On an average 165 days (1.9.1991) after transplantation, nine patients were in full or part-time employment, two were students, seven received financial aid and five were still in hospital. A correlation between the duration of financial aid before transplantation and return to work after transplantation was found. In addition, age was found to be of significance. It is concluded that physical status and return to work are satisfactory.

Recurrence Plots: a New Tool for Quantification of Cardiac Autonomic Nervous System Recovery after Transplant.

PubMed

Takakura, Isabela Thomaz; Hoshi, Rosangela Akemi; Santos, Márcio Antonio; Pivatelli, Flávio Correa; Nóbrega, João Honorato; Guedes, Débora Linhares; Nogueira, Victor Freire; Frota, Tuane Queiroz; Castelo, Gabriel Castro; Godoy, Moacir Fernandes de

2017-01-01

To evaluate a possible evolutionary post-heart transplant return of autonomic function using quantitative and qualitative information from recurrence plots. Using electrocardiography, 102 RR tachograms of 45 patients (64.4% male) who underwent heart transplantation and that were available in the database were analyzed at different follow-up periods. The RR tachograms were collected from patients in the supine position for about 20 minutes. A time series with 1000 RR intervals was analyzed, a recurrence plot was created, and the following quantitative variables were evaluated: percentage of determinism, percentage of recurrence, average diagonal length, Shannon entropy, and sample entropy, as well as the visual qualitative aspect. Quantitative and qualitative signs of heart rate variability recovery were observed after transplantation. There is evidence that autonomic innervation of the heart begins to happen gradually after transplantation. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of recurrence can be useful tools for monitoring cardiac transplant patients and detecting the gradual return of heart rate variability.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Choosing the Discount Rate for Defense Decisionmaking.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-01

a weighted average of the after-personal-income-tax rate of return to savers and the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch calcu].ates...occurs between the corporate and noncorporate sector. Many economists assume 100 percent shifting of the corporate income tax , so if the corporate ...capital is a weighted average of the after-personal-income-tax rate of return to savers and the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Sebastian, A.; Singh, R.; Arrighi, J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Vecchi, G.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation over Houston and the surrounding area, particularly on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. Using observational datasets and high-resolution global climate model experiments we investigate the return period of this event and to what extent anthropogenic climate change influenced the likelihood and intensity of this type of events. The event definition for the attribution is set by the main impact, flooding in the city of Houston. Most rivers crested on August 28 or 29, driven by intensive rainfall on August 26-28. We therefore use the annual maximum of three-day average precipitation as the event definition. Station data (GHCN-D) and a gridded precipitation product (CPC unified analysis) are used to find the return period of the event and changes in the observed record. To attribute changes to anthropogenic climate change we use time-slice experiments from two high-resolution global climate models (EC-Earth 2.3 and GFDL HiFLOR, both integrated at approximately 25 km). A regional model (HadRM3P) was rejected because of unrealistic modelled extremes. Finally we put the attribution results in context, given local vulnerability and exposure.

Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2011-06-01

A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the corresponding minimum, average, and maximum run-out distances and vulnerability values, thus obtaining a range of risk values per return period. The results indicate that the total annual minimum, average, and maximum losses are about US 44 000, US 136 000 and US 268 000, respectively. The maximum risk to population varies from 2.1 × 10-1 for one or more lives lost to 6.0 × 10-2 yr-1 for 100 or more lives lost. The obtained results will provide a basis for planning risk reduction strategies in the Nilgiri area.

Initial Nutritional Assessment of Infants With Cleft Lip and/or Palate: Interventions and Return to Birth Weight.

PubMed

Kaye, Alison; Thaete, Kristi; Snell, Audrey; Chesser, Connie; Goldak, Claudia; Huff, Helen

2017-03-01

  To assess and quantify cleft team practices with regard to nutritional support in the neonatal period Design :  Retrospective review.   Tertiary pediatric hospital.   One hundred consecutive newborn patients with a diagnosis of cleft lip and/or cleft palate between 2009 and 2012.   Birth weight, cleft type, initial cleft team weight measurements, initial feeding practices, recommended nutritional interventions, and follow-up nutritional assessments.   All patients in the study were evaluated by a registered dietitian and an occupational feeding therapist. Average birth weight and average age at the first cleft team visit were similar for each cleft type: cleft lip (CL), cleft lip and palate (CLP), and cleft palate (CP). The calculated age (in days) for return to birth weight was significantly different between cleft types: CL = 13.58 days, CLP = 15.88 days, and CP = 21.93 days. Exclusive use of breast milk was 50% for patients with CL, 30.3% for patients with CLP, and 21.4% for patients with CP. Detailed nutritional interventions were made for 31 patients at the first visit: two with CL, 14 with CLP, and 15 with CP.   Distinct differences were seen in neonatal weight gain between cleft types. There was significantly greater total weight gain for patients with CL at their first visit and significantly slower return to birth weight for patients with isolated CP. Patients with CL required far fewer interventions at the initial assessment and were more likely to be provided breast milk exclusively or in combination with formula. Infants with CP were far less likely to receive any breast milk. Patients with CLP and CP required frequent nutritional interventions.

Dispersal and survival of a polygynandrous passerine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Wild, Teri C.; Powell, Abby N.

2015-01-01

Although sex biases in survival and dispersal are thought to be linked to avian mating systems, little is known about these demographic patterns in less common mating strategies such as polygynandry. We investigated breeding-site fidelity, natal philopatry, and apparent survival of the polygynandrous Smith's Longspur (Calcarius pictus) over a 7-yr period at 2 areas in Alaska's Brooks Range. We used capture–recapture histories of 243 color-banded adults and 431 juveniles to estimate annual survival and determined dispersal patterns from 34 adults that were found breeding within the study areas over multiple years. Most adults (88%) returned to nest in the same breeding neighborhood as in previous years; mean dispersal distance was 300.9 ± 74.2 m and did not differ between sexes. Juveniles exhibited low natal philopatry; only 4% of banded hatch-year birds were resighted as adults during subsequent years. Those that did return dispersed, on average, 1,674.4 ± 465.8 m from their natal nests (n = 6). Model-averaged survival estimates indicated that annual survival of adult females (50–58%) was only slightly lower than that of males (60–63%); juvenile survival was 41% but was paired with a low (13%) encounter probability. We attribute the lack of sex bias in adult dispersal to this species' polygynandrous mating strategy. Within this system, there are multiple mates within a breeding neighborhood. We argue that natural selection may favor females that remain on the same, familiar breeding site, because they do not have to disperse to a new area to find a suitable mate. Dispersal among breeding populations most likely occurs by juveniles returning as adults. Our findings support hypotheses that suggest a relationship between dispersal and mating strategy and provide some of the first insight into the demographic patterns of a polygynandrous passerine.

Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henn, Brian; Cao, Qian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Mass, Clifford; Bower, J. Brent; St. Laurent, Michael; Mao, Yixin; Perica, Sanja

2015-01-01

The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on 11 February 2014. The 21- to 42-day periods prior to the landslide had anomalously high precipitation; we estimate that 300-400 mm of precipitation fell at Oso in the 21 days prior to the landslide. Relative only to historical periods ending on 22 March, the return periods of these precipitation accumulations are large (25-88 years). However, relative to the largest accumulations from any time of the year (annual maxima), return periods are more modest (2-6 years). In addition to the 21-42 days prior to the landslide, there is a secondary maximum in the precipitation return periods for the 4 years preceding the landslide. Reconstructed soil moisture was anomalously high prior to the landslide, with a return period that exceeded 40 years about a week before the event.

[Effects of asphyxia on endocochlear direct-current potential in guinea pig].

PubMed

Liu, Xiuli; Ren, Zhong; Lü, Mei; Nakashima, Tsutomu

2006-04-01

To investigate the mechanism of auditory function disturbance due to asphyxiants. Guinea pigs with nice auricle reflex were selected in the experiment. The changes of endocochlear direct-current potential (EP) were detected when apnea and after artificial respiration, using the stria vascularis method. (1) The original EP of experimental group was (76.4+/-8.4) mV, and the original EP of control group was (80.8+/-8.4) mV, there was no significant difference between them. (2) During apnea, the EP of all the guinea pigs decreased precipitously after incubation period of 8 to 34 seconds. The decreasing rate of EP was positively correlated to the incubation period (P=0.008). (3) After 3 minutes of apnea, the mean minimum of EP was (-17.5+/-4.4) mV, which was positively correlated with decreasing rate and incubation period (P was 0.0002, 0.000 separately). (4) After artificial respiration, it needed the average time of (85.0+/-16.0) s to return original EP, and 7 cases got an overrun. The EP of all the guinea pigs decreased when apnea, which showed the abnormal living circumstance of acoustic hair cells. After 3 minutes of apnea, the EP of all the guinea pigs decreased to negative value, which demonstrated that the functions of acoustic hair cells had not lost within 3 minutes of apnea. After artificial respiration, all the guinea pigs' EP returned to original value, which indicated that the functions of the stria vascularis had not failed irreversibly.

Major floods, poor land use delay return of sedimentation to normal rates

Treesearch

Henry W. Anderson

1972-01-01

Recovery from flood-accelerated sedimentation affects both estimates of long-term average deposition and short-term monitoring of changes. "Years to return to normal" for 10 watersheds in northern California after a major flood accelerated sediment concentrations were analyzed. Returns to normalcy took from 0 to 9 years; rate of decline was related to both...

A Pedagogical Note on the Superiority of Price-Cap Regulation to Rate-of-Return Regulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Currier, Kevin M.; Jackson, Brian K.

2008-01-01

The two forms of natural monopoly regulation that are typically discussed in intermediate microeconomics textbooks are marginal cost pricing and average cost pricing (rate-of-return regulation). However, within the last 20 years, price-cap regulation has largely replaced rate-of-return regulation because of the former's potential to generate more…

Soyuz 25 Return Samples: Assessment of Air Quality Aboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.

2011-01-01

Six mini-grab sample containers (m-GSCs) were returned aboard Soyuz 25. The toxicological assessment of 6 m-GSCs from the ISS is shown. The recoveries of the 3 internal standards, C-13-acetone, fluorobenzene, and chlorobenzene, from the GSCs averaged 76, 108 and 88%, respectively. Formaldehyde badges were not returned aboard Soyuz 25.

Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

2015-04-01

This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Chaotic Behaviour of a Driven P-N Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Jose Maria

The chaotic behavior of a driven p-n junction is experimentally examined. Bifurcation diagrams for the system are measured, showing period doubling bifurcations up to f/32, onset of chaos, reverse bifurcations of chaotic bands, and periodic windows. Some of the measured bifurcation diagrams are similar to the bifurcation diagram of the logistic map x(,n+1) = (lamda)x(,n)(1 - x(,n)). A return map is also measured showing approximately a one-dimensional map with a single extremum at low driving voltages. The intermittency route to chaos is experimentally observed to occur near a tangent bifurcation as the system approaches a period 5 window at (lamda) = (lamda)(,5). Data are presented for the dependence of the average laminar length on (epsilon) = (lamda)(,5) - (lamda), and for the probability distribution P(l) vs. l. The effects of additive stochastic noise on period doubling, chaos, windows, and intermittency are examined and are found to agree with the logistic model and universal predictions. Three examples of crisis of the attractor are observed. The crises occur when an unstable orbit intersects the chaotic attractor. A period adding sequence is reported in which wide periodic windows of period 2, 3, 4, ... are observed for increasing driving voltage. The initial period doubling cascade and the period adding sequence are compared to two theoretical models, with reasonable success.

Management of Preconditioned Calves and Impacts of Preconditioning.

PubMed

Hilton, W Mark

2015-07-01

When studying the practice of preconditioning (PC) calves, many factors need to be examined to determine if cow-calf producers should make this investment. Factors such as average daily gain, feed efficiency, available labor, length of the PC period, genetics, and marketing options must be analyzed. The health sales price advantage is an additional benefit in producing and selling PC calves but not the sole determinant of PC's financially feasibility. Studies show that a substantial advantage of PC is the selling of additional pounds at a cost of gain well below the marginal return of producing those additional pounds. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk management considerations and the pregnancy handheld record. An audit of the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record.

PubMed

Toohill, Jocelyn; Soong, Barbara; Meldrum, Melissa

2006-12-01

Risk management is integral to the provision of contemporary health care. As maternity practices change and with a commitment on women being at the centre of care, one strategy has been for women to retain their records during the antenatal period. This paper explores the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record in a major tertiary facility and discusses the risk management implications when the record is not available upon presentation to the treating practitioner. Four audits were conducted over a 2 year period to determine the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record at time of admission for labour and birth. A total of 1096 records were returned out of a possible 1256 during the study. A 6.6% increase in the return rate was achieved over the 4 audit periods (82-88.5%) with an overall return rate of 85%. Our audit highlights the need for consumers, clinicians and heath care facilities to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the pregnancy handheld record, as well as the medico-legal responsibilities that ultimately fall back on the health facility.

Development and Evaluation of Solar Tunnel Dryer for Commercial Fish Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohod, A. G.; Khandetod, Y. P.; Shrirame, H. Y.

2014-01-01

The local practice of drying fish in open sun drying poses problems such as high moisture content, uncontrolled drying and contamination. These problems can be avoided by proper use of improved methods such as the solar tunnel dryer, which results in faster drying of fish. The semi cylindrical walk-in type natural convection solar tunnel dryer, having drying area of 37.5 m2 was developed and evaluated for the drying of fish products in comparison with the conventional method of open sun drying. The experiments were conducted without fish and with fish to evaluate the performance of solar tunnel dryer. The average rise in temperature inside the solar tunnel dryer was found to be 11.24 °C and 18.29 °C over the ambient temperature during no load test in winter and summer respectively. The average 28 % saving in time was observed for selected fish drying using solar tunnel dryer over open sun drying method with average drying efficiency of 19 %. The economics was calculated for drying of prawns ( Parapaeneopsis stylifera) by solar tunnel dryer and open sun drying system on the basis of business as a whole. The economics of the solar tunnel dryer is presented in term of Net present worth, Benefit-Cost Ratio, Payback period, Profitability index and Internal rate of return. The pay back period for solar tunnel dryer was found to be 2.84 years.

Novel Signal Noise Reduction Method through Cluster Analysis, Applied to Photoplethysmography.

PubMed

Waugh, William; Allen, John; Wightman, James; Sims, Andrew J; Beale, Thomas A W

2018-01-01

Physiological signals can often become contaminated by noise from a variety of origins. In this paper, an algorithm is described for the reduction of sporadic noise from a continuous periodic signal. The design can be used where a sample of a periodic signal is required, for example, when an average pulse is needed for pulse wave analysis and characterization. The algorithm is based on cluster analysis for selecting similar repetitions or pulses from a periodic single. This method selects individual pulses without noise, returns a clean pulse signal, and terminates when a sufficiently clean and representative signal is received. The algorithm is designed to be sufficiently compact to be implemented on a microcontroller embedded within a medical device. It has been validated through the removal of noise from an exemplar photoplethysmography (PPG) signal, showing increasing benefit as the noise contamination of the signal increases. The algorithm design is generalised to be applicable for a wide range of physiological (physical) signals.

Understanding the multifractality in portfolio excess returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Cheng; Wang, Yudong

2017-01-01

The multifractality in stock returns have been investigated extensively. However, whether the autocorrelations in portfolio returns are multifractal have not been considered in the literature. In this paper, we detect multifractal behavior of returns of portfolios constructed based on two popular trading rules, size and book-to-market (BM) ratio. Using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, we find that the portfolio returns are significantly multifractal and the multifractality is mainly attributed to long-range dependence. We also investigate the multifractal cross-correlation between portfolio return and market average return using the detrended cross-correlation analysis. Our results show that the cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent, while those of large fluctuations are anti-persistent.

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probabilitymore » that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel distribution, and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight winds of 123 mph every 2500 years, and 132mph every 6250 years at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the W98 report (which also used the Gumbel distribution for wind speeds) which gave wind speeds of 115mph and 122 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation accumulation periods, we compared the fits of three different theoretical extreme-value distributions, and in the end decided to maintain the use of the Gumbel distribution for each period. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years was estimated as 7.8 inches and 8.4 inches, respectively. For the 24- hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 10.4 inches and 11.1 inches, respectively. These values are substantially lower than comparable values provided in the W98 report. This is largely a consequence of the W98 use of a different extreme value distribution with its corresponding higher extreme probabilities.« less

Switching gains and health plan price elasticities: 20 years of managed competition reforms in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Douven, Rudy; Katona, Katalin; T Schut, Frederik; Shestalova, Victoria

2017-11-01

In this paper we estimate health plan price elasticities and financial switching gains for consumers over a 20-year period in which managed competition was introduced in the Dutch health insurance market. The period is characterized by a major health insurance reform in 2006 to provide health insurers with more incentives and tools to compete, and to provide consumers with a more differentiated choice of products. Prior to the reform, in the period 1995-2005, we find a low number of switchers, between 2 and 4% a year, modest average total switching gains of 2 million euros per year and short-term health plan price elasticities ranging from -0.1 to -0.4. The major reform in 2006 resulted in an all-time high switching rate of 18%, total switching gains of 130 million euros, and a high short-term price elasticity of -5.7. During 2007-2015 switching rates returned to lower levels, between 4 and 8% per year, with total switching gains in the order of 40 million euros per year on average. Total switching gains could have been 10 times higher if all consumers had switched to one of the cheapest plans. We find short-term price elasticities ranging between -0.9 and -2.2. Our estimations suggest substantial consumer inertia throughout the entire period, as we find degrees of choice persistence ranging from about 0.8 to 0.9.

26 CFR 1.6013-2 - Joint return after filing separate return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the case of a joint return made under section 6013(b), the period of limitations provided in sections... (c)(1) of this section, relating to the application of sections 6501 and 6651 with respect to a joint... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Joint return after filing separate return. 1...

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

Does well maintained graft provide consistent return to play after medial ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction of the elbow joint in elite baseball players?

PubMed

Park, Jin-Young; Oh, Kyung-Soo; Bahng, Seung-Chul; Chung, Seok-Won; Choi, Jin-Ho

2014-06-01

Several studies have reported the clinical outcomes of medial ulnar collateral ligament (MUCL) reconstruction of the elbow joint in throwing athletes, including the rate of return to sports. However, little has been known about the imaging outcomes after MUCL reconstruction. The aim of this study is to report the clinical and imaging outcomes after MUCL reconstruction using figure of eight fashion in the elite and professional baseball players. This study included 17 baseball players, who underwent MUCL reconstruction between July 2007 and May 2010. The average follow-up period was 48.6 months. Imaging assessment consisted of preoperative plain and stress radiographs, magnetic resonance imaging, and postoperative serial ultrasonography. The clinical assessments were composed of visual analogue scale (VAS) for pain, range of motion, and the Conway scale. The mean VAS score was 6.4 (range, 3 to 8) preoperatively and 2.2 (range, 0 to 4) postoperatively (p < 0.05). There were nine players (53%) classified as excellent who returned to sports at the same or higher level compared to preinjury. Serial ultrasonography revealed well-maintained grafts at 3 and 12 months in all of the players. Five out of 17 players showed decreased echogenecity in the common flexor tendon at 3 months, which was considered as remaining tissue swelling and resolved completely at 12 months. All grafts are well-maintained until 12-months based on the ultrasonographic findings, although only 53% of the players returned to preinjury level.

The Technical Efficiency of Earthquake Medical Rapid Response Teams Following Disasters: The Case of the 2010 Yushu Earthquake in China.

PubMed

Liu, Xu; Tang, Bihan; Yang, Hongyang; Liu, Yuan; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

2015-12-04

Performance assessments of earthquake medical rapid response teams (EMRRTs), particularly the first responders deployed to the hardest hit areas following major earthquakes, should consider efficient and effective use of resources. This study assesses the daily technical efficiency of EMRRTs in the emergency period immediately following the 2010 Yushu earthquake in China. Data on EMRRTs were obtained from official daily reports of the general headquarters for Yushu earthquake relief, the emergency office of the National Ministry of Health, and the Health Department of Qinghai Province, for a sample of data on 15 EMRRTs over 62 days. Data envelopment analysis was used to examine the technical efficiency in a constant returns to scale model, a variable returns to scale model, and the scale efficiency of EMRRTs. Tobit regression was applied to analyze the effects of corresponding influencing factors. The average technical efficiency scores under constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, and the scale efficiency scores of the 62 units of analysis were 77.95%, 89.00%, and 87.47%, respectively. The staff-to-bed ratio was significantly related to global technical efficiency. The date of rescue was significantly related to pure technical efficiency. The type of institution to which an EMRRT belonged and the staff-to-bed ratio were significantly related to scale efficiency. This study provides evidence that supports improvements to EMRRT efficiency and serves as a reference for earthquake emergency medical rapid assistance leaders and teams.

The operative treatment of pressure sores in the pelvic region: A 10-year period overview

PubMed Central

Jósvay, János; Klauber, András; Both, Béla; Kelemen, Péter B.; Varga, Zsombor Z.; Pesthy, Pál Cs.

2015-01-01

Context Pelvic region pressure sores often develop following spinal cord injury. Surgery is often necessary for long standing, large-sized pressure sores not responding to conservative treatment. Authors analyze their results of a 10-year period, and identify factors contributing to the reduction of the recurrence rate. Methods A total of 119 pressure sores were operated on 98 patients in two institutions during a 10-year period (1 January 2003 to 31 December 2012). The encountered perioperative complications are summarized, and the recurrence rate is analyzed with a patient follow-up questionnaire. Results We experienced 15 perioperative complications (12.6%). All complications were fully resolved by conservative treatment. Fifty-eight returned patient replies were processed. The average follow-up time after surgery was 5.2 years. The recurrence rate was 5.47%. Conclusion The strict adherence to surgical indications, full patient compliance, specialized pre- and post-operative patient care, our routinely used preferred surgical method, all contribute to a low post-operative complication rate, long-term flap survival, and an extended recurrence free period. PMID:25299238

The operative treatment of pressure sores in the pelvic region: A 10-year period overview.

PubMed

Jósvay, János; Klauber, András; Both, Béla; Kelemen, Péter B; Varga, Zsombor Z; Pesthy, Pál Cs

2015-07-01

Pelvic region pressure sores often develop following spinal cord injury. Surgery is often necessary for long standing, large-sized pressure sores not responding to conservative treatment. Authors analyze their results of a 10-year period, and identify factors contributing to the reduction of the recurrence rate. A total of 119 pressure sores were operated on 98 patients in two institutions during a 10-year period (1 January 2003 to 31 December 2012). The encountered perioperative complications are summarized, and the recurrence rate is analyzed with a patient follow-up questionnaire. We experienced 15 perioperative complications (12.6%). All complications were fully resolved by conservative treatment. Fifty-eight returned patient replies were processed. The average follow-up time after surgery was 5.2 years. The recurrence rate was 5.47%. The strict adherence to surgical indications, full patient compliance, specialized pre- and post-operative patient care, our routinely used preferred surgical method, all contribute to a low post-operative complication rate, long-term flap survival, and an extended recurrence free period.

Performance, Return to Competition, and Reinjury After Tommy John Surgery in Major League Baseball Pitchers: A Review of 147 Cases.

PubMed

Makhni, Eric C; Lee, Randall W; Morrow, Zachary S; Gualtieri, Anthony P; Gorroochurn, Prakash; Ahmad, Christopher S

2014-06-01

Pitching performance metrics, durability, and reinjury after Tommy John surgery in professional baseball players have not been well described. The purpose of this study was to determine the likelihood of return to professional competition, reinjury rate, and change in performance after Tommy John surgery in Major League Baseball pitchers. The hypothesis was that performance metrics and durability will decline after surgery. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Publicly available records were accessed to generate a list of all Major League Baseball pitchers from 1999 to 2011 who had undergone ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction at any point in their careers; those with multiple reconstructive procedures were excluded. Return to active (≥1 game) or established (≥10 games) competition and/or placement on the disabled list was documented for each player. Among established players, pitching performance was compared pre- and postoperatively, as well as with age-matched control pitchers. Of 147 pitchers included, 80% returned to pitch in at least 1 Major League Baseball game. Only 67% of established pitchers returned to the same level of competition postoperatively, and 57% of established players returned to the disabled list because of injuries to the throwing arm. Finally, performance declined across several metrics after surgery compared with preinjury levels, such as earned run average, batting average against, walks plus hits per inning pitched, percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone, innings pitched, percentage fastballs thrown, and average fastball velocity (P < .05 for all). However, these declines were not statistically different from similar declines found in age-matched controls who did not undergo Tommy John surgery. Return to the disabled list after Tommy John surgery is common among professional pitchers (>50%), and performance declines across several major metrics after surgery. Patients undergoing Tommy John surgery should be counseled appropriately regarding the likelihood of return to preinjury levels of competition and performance. © 2014 The Author(s).

What stock market returns to expect for the future?

PubMed

Diamond, P A

2000-01-01

In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant. But lower savings as growth slows should partially or fully offset that effect. The present high stock prices, together with projected slow economic growth, are not consistent with a 7.0 percent return. With a plausible level of adjusted dividends (dividends plus net share repurchases), the ratio of stock value to gross domestic product (GDP) would rise more than 20-fold over 75 years. Similarly, the steady-state Gordon formula--that stock returns equal the adjusted dividend yield plus the growth rate of stock prices (equal to that of GDP)--suggests a return of roughly 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent. Moreover, when relative stock values have been high, returns over the following decade have tended to be low. To eliminate the inconsistency posed by the assumed 7.0 percent return, one could assume higher GDP growth, a lower long-run stock return, or a lower short-run stock return with a 7.0 percent return on a lower base thereafter. For example, with an adjusted dividend yield of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent, the market would have to decline about 35 percent to 45 percent in real terms over the next decade to reach steady state. In short, either the stock market is overvalued and requires a correction to justify a 7.0 percent return thereafter, or it is correctly valued and the long-run return is substantially lower than 7.0 percent (or some combination). This article argues that the "overvalued" view is more convincing, since the "correctly valued" hypothesis implies an implausibly small equity premium. Although OCACT could adopt a lower rate for the entire 75-year period, a better approach would be to assume lower returns over the next decade and a 7.0 percent return thereafter.

A Paired Comparison of Initial and Recurrent Concussions Sustained by US High School Athletes Within a Single Athletic Season.

PubMed

Currie, Dustin W; Comstock, R Dawn; Fields, Sarah K; Cantu, Robert C

To compare initial and recurrent concussions regarding average number of days between concussions, acute concussion symptoms and symptom resolution time, and return to play time. High school athletes sustaining multiple concussions linked within sport seasons drawn from a large sports injury surveillance study. Retrospective analysis of longitudinal surveillance data. Number of days between concussions, number of symptoms endorsed, specific symptoms endorsed, symptom resolution time, return to play time. Median time between initial and recurrent concussions was 21 days (interquartile range = 10-43 days). Loss of consciousness, the only significant symptom difference, occurred more frequently in recurrent (6.8%) than initial (1.7%) concussions (P = .04). No significant difference was found in the number of symptoms (P = .84) or symptom resolution time (P = .74). Recurrent concussions kept athletes from play longer than initial concussions (P < .0001); 26.6% of recurrent concussions were season ending. We found that athletes' initial and recurrent concussions had similar symptom presentations and resolution time. Despite these similarities, athletes were restricted from returning to play for longer periods following a recurrent concussion, indicating clinicians are managing recurrent concussions more conservatively. It is probable that concussion recognition and management are superior now compared with when previous studies were published, possibly improving recurrent concussion outcomes.

Simulating extreme low-discharge events for the Rhine using a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Mens, Marjolein; Schasfoort, Femke; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2017-04-01

The specific features of hydrological droughts make them more difficult to be analysed than other water-related phenomena: longer time scales (months to several years) so less historical events are available, and the drought severity and associate damage depends on a combination of variables with no clear prevalence (e.g., total water deficit, maximum deficit and duration). As part of drought risk analysis, which aims to provide insight into the variability of hydrological conditions and associated socio-economic impacts, long synthetic time series should therefore be developed. In this contribution, we increase the length of the available inflow time series using stochastic autoregressive modelling. This enhancement could improve the characterization of the extreme range and can define extreme droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns that can lead to distinctly different damages. The methodology consists of: 1) fitting an autoregressive model (AR, ARMA…) to the available records; 2) generating extended time series (thousands of years); 3) performing a frequency analysis with different characteristic variables (total, deficit, maximum deficit and so on); and 4) selecting extreme drought events associated with different characteristic variables and return periods. The methodology was applied to the Rhine river discharge at location Lobith, where the Rhine enters The Netherlands. A monthly ARMA(1,1) autoregressive model with seasonally varying parameters was fitted and successfully validated to the historical records available since year 1901. The maximum monthly deficit with respect to a threshold value of 1800 m3/s and the average discharge for a given time span in m3/s were chosen as indicators to identify drought periods. A synthetic series of 10,000 years of discharges was generated using the validated ARMA model. Two time spans were considered in the analysis: the whole calendar year and the half-year period between April and September (the summer half year, where water demands are highest). Frequency analysis was performed for both indicators and time spans for the generated time series and the historical records. The comparison between observed and generated series showed that the ARMA model provides a good reproduction of the maximum deficits and total discharges, especially for the summer half-year period. The resulting synthetic series are therefore considered credible. These synthetic series, with its wealth of information, can then be used as inputs for the damage assessment models, together with information on precipitation deficits, in order to estimate the risk that lower inflows can have on the urban, the agricultural, the shipping sector and so on. This will help in associating economic losses and periods of return, as well as for estimating how droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns can lead to different damages. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811), and by the Climate-KIC Pioneers into Practice Program supported by the European Union's EIT.

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bilateral simultaneous endoscopic carpal tunnel release: Mean time to resume activities of daily living and return to work.

PubMed

Degeorge, B; Coulomb, R; Kouyoumdjian, P; Mares, O

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the time needed to return to personal and professional activities after bilateral simultaneous endoscopic carpal tunnel release. During a retrospective, single-center study, we included a cohort of 30 patients (60 wrists). Patients were evaluated clinically (pain, paresthesia) and functionally (QuickDASH score) pre- and postoperatively. At the last follow-up, patients completed a questionnaire regarding the time needed to resume personal activities using the ADL scale (feeding, personal hygiene and dressing) and return to work. We also evaluated procedure satisfaction and willingness to undergo the surgery again. The average patient age was 60.5 years (range 39-86). At the last follow-up, average time to resume personal activities was 2.2 days (0-14) for feeding, 4.4 days (0-15) for personal hygiene and 3.9 days (0-14) for dressing. Average time to return to recreational activities was 11.7 days (1-60). Average time to return to work was 36.6 days (15-60). Overall, 97% of patients were satisfied or very satisfied with the outcome. All patients would have the bilateral simultaneous surgery again. Bilateral simultaneous endoscopic carpal tunnel release is rarely performed. For mild conditions, contralateral symptom improvement is common after unilateral surgery. Bilateral simultaneous endoscopic carpal tunnel release appears to be disabling right after surgery, but clinical and functional scores are similar after the third postoperative day. These data can be used for patient education and decision making when considering surgery bilateral carpal tunnel syndrome. Bilateral simultaneous endoscopic carpal tunnel release is a feasible and safe procedure. Level IV, case series. Copyright © 2018 SFCM. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong-Hua; Yu, Xiao-Wen; Suo, Yuan-Yuan

2012-06-01

We choice the yuan exchange rate index based on a basket of currencies as the effective exchange rate of the yuan and investigate the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index after China's exchange rate system reform on the 21st July 2005. After dividing the time series into two parts according to the change in the yuan exchange rate regime in July 2008, we compare the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index during these two periods. We find that the distribution of the two return series has the exponential form. We also perform the detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and the multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA). The two periods possess different degrees of long-range correlations, and the multifractal nature is also unveiled in these two time series. Significant difference is found in the scaling exponents τ(q) and singularity spectra f(α) of the two periods obtained from the MFDMA analysis. Besides, in order to detect the sources of multifractality, shuffling and phase randomization procedures are applied to destroy the long-range temporal correlation and fat-tailed distribution of the yuan exchange rate index respectively. We find that the fat-tailedness plays a critical role in the sources of multifractality in the first period, while the long memory is the major cause in the second period. The results suggest that the change in China's exchange rate regime in July 2008 gives rise to the different multifractal properties of the yuan exchange rate index in these two periods, and thus has an effect on the effective exchange rate of the yuan after the exchange rate reform on the 21st July 2005.

Is educational achievement a turning point for incarcerated delinquents across race and sex?

PubMed

Blomberg, Thomas G; Bales, William D; Piquero, Alex R

2012-02-01

Research has linked the role of education to delinquency, but much of the focus has been on general population samples and with little attention to demographic differences. Employing a cumulative disadvantage framework that integrates elements of informal social control and labeling theories, this article examines whether academic achievement serves as a positive turning point and re-directs juvenile delinquents away from subsequent offending. Attention is also given to race/sex contingencies. Using a sample of 4,147 delinquents released from Florida correctional institutions (86% male, 57% non-White, average age at release = 16.8 years), propensity score analysis yielded two findings: youth with above average academic achievement while incarcerated were significantly more likely to return to school post-release, and youth with above average attendance in public school were significantly less likely to be re-arrested in the 1-year post-release period. While the academic gains were pronounced among African-American males, the preventive effects of school attendance are similar across race and sex, suggesting that education can be a part of a larger prevention effort that assists juvenile delinquents in successful community re-entry.

GIS-aided low flow mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saghafian, B.; Mohammadi, A.

2003-04-01

Most studies involving water resources allocation, water quality, hydropower generation, and allowable water withdrawal and transfer require estimation of low flows. Normally, frequency analysis on at-station D-day low flow data is performed to derive various T-yr return period values. However, this analysis is restricted to the location of hydrometric stations where the flow discharge is measured. Regional analysis is therefore conducted to relate the at-station low flow quantiles to watershed characteristics. This enables the transposition of low flow quantiles to ungauged sites. Nevertheless, a procedure to map the regional regression relations for the entire stream network, within the bounds of the relations, is particularly helpful when one studies and weighs alternative sites for certain water resources project. In this study, we used a GIS-aided procedure for low flow mapping in Gilan province, part of northern region in Iran. Gilan enjoys a humid climate with an average of 1100 mm annual precipitation. Although rich in water resources, the highly populated area is quite dependent on minimum amount of water to sustain the vast rice farming and to maintain required flow discharge for quality purposes. To carry out the low flow analysis, a total of 36 hydrometric stations with sufficient and reliable discharge data were identified in the region. The average area of the watersheds was 250 sq. km. Log Pearson type 3 was found the best distribution for flow durations over 60 days, while log normal fitted well the shorter duration series. Low flows with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year were then computed. Cluster analysis identified two homogeneous areas. Although various watershed parameters were examined in factor analysis, the results showed watershed area, length of the main stream, and annual precipitation were the most effective low flow parameters. The regression equations were then mapped with the aid of GIS based on flow accumulation maps and the corresponding spatially averaged values of other parameters over the upslope area of all stream pixels exceeding a certain threshold area. Such map clearly shows the spatial variation of low flow quantiles along the stream network and enables the study of low flow profiles along any stream.

Prevalence of posterior elbow problems in Japanese high school baseball players.

PubMed

Kida, Yoshikazu; Morihara, Toru; Furukawa, Ryuhei; Sukenari, Tsuyoshi; Kotoura, Yoshihiro; Yoshioka, Naoki; Hojo, Tatsuya; Oda, Ryo; Arai, Yuji; Sawada, Koshiro; Fujiwara, Hiroyoshi; Kubo, Toshikazu

2016-09-01

Various posterior elbow problems cause posterior elbow pain among baseball players. We aimed to determine the prevalence and diagnoses associated with posterior elbow problems and post-treatment recovery time for returning to sports in Japanese high school baseball players when treated in the off-season. A total of 576 Japanese high school baseball players who participated in baseball skill training camp during the off-season were enrolled in the study. The elbow of each player's throwing arm was assessed by use of a questionnaire and physical examination. Players with abnormal results were advised to visit the hospital. Players who visited the hospital were initially treated conservatively and underwent surgery if necessary. Retrospectively, players with positive physical examination results associated with posterior elbow pain, defined as olecranon tenderness and/or a positive elbow extension impingement test, were selected. Information about their position, elbow pain, physical examination results, diagnosis, treatment, and recovery time before returning to playing sports was assessed. Olecranon tenderness and/or positive elbow extension impingement test results were found in 76 players (13.2%). Of these, 33 agreed to visit the hospital for further diagnostic imaging and 25 players (75.8%) were diagnosed with posteromedial elbow impingement. By the next spring, 87.9% of players returned to sport, and 100% of players returned to sport before the next summer. The average recovery period was 77 ± 47 days. Physical examinations related to posterior elbow injuries were positive in 13.2% of high school baseball players. The most common diagnosis for posterior elbow pain was posteromedial elbow impingement. All players returned to competitive sports activity levels within 77 ± 47 days. Copyright © 2016 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sports chiropractic management of concussions using the Sport Concussion Assessment Tool 2 symptom scoring, serial examinations, and graded return to play protocol: a retrospective case series

PubMed Central

Shane, Eric R.; Pierce, Kevin M.; Gonzalez, Jannet K.; Campbell, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Objective The purpose of this case series is to report how the symptom section of the Sport Concussion Assessment Tool 2 (SCAT2) was used to manage athletes with concussions in a high school training room setting and to address the need for SCAT2 baseline measurements. Clinical features During a 4-month period, 3 doctors of chiropractic with certification from the American Chiropractic Board of Sports Physicians managed 15 high school athletes with concussions in a multidisciplinary setting. Fourteen athletes were male American football players, and one was a female volleyball player. Intervention and outcome Of the 15 athletes, 3 athletes had baseline SCAT2 documentation. Athletes were evaluated and returned to play with a graded return to play protocol using the SCAT2 symptoms and serial physical examinations. Once participants were asymptomatic, they began a graded return to play process. A total of 47 SCAT2 tests were performed on the 15 athletes, averaging 3.13 SCAT2 evaluations per patient. Of the 15 athletes evaluated, 6 were managed and cleared for return to play; 2 of the athletes sustained concussions in the last week of the season, thus ending their season; and 3 athletes were cleared by medical doctors. None of the athletes under care reported an adverse event. Conclusion The utilization of the SCAT2 with serial physical examinations provided objective measures for athlete’s injuries, allowing the practitioners to evaluate concussions. More efforts are needed to collect baseline SCAT2 to compare these scores with subsequent SCAT2 scores following athletic injuries. PMID:24396327

Can Competitive Athletes Return to High-Level Play After Osteochondral Allograft Transplantation of the Knee?

PubMed

McCarthy, Mark A; Meyer, Maximilian A; Weber, Alexander E; Levy, David M; Tilton, Annemarie K; Yanke, Adam B; Cole, Brian J

2017-09-01

To investigate functional outcomes among competitive athletes undergoing osteochondral allograft (OCA) transplantation of the knee, including rates of return to play (RTP), and factors preventing RTP. A retrospective review identified all competitive athletes (high school, intercollegiate, professional) undergoing isolated femoral condyle OCA from 2004 to 2013. Patient-reported outcome (PRO) questionnaires (Lysholm, International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC], Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score [KOOS], Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Arthritis Index [WOMAC], 12-Item Short Form Health Survey [SF-12], Tegner, and Marx) and custom RTP surveys were administered. All subsequent reoperations were documented. Thirteen athletes (4 intercollegiate, 9 high-school) were identified with an average follow-up of 5.9 ± 2.5 years. Seven athletes (54%) returned to competitive sport at an average of 7.9 ± 3.5 months, 5 of whom returned to preinjury functional levels. Of the 8 athletes who either did not return to competitive sport or failed to sustain their high level of play, the most common reasons cited were graduation from high school or college (4 patients, 50%) or fear of reinjury (3 patients, 38%). All 4 patients citing graduation as the primary factor preventing return to preinjury level of competitive sport resumed recreational sport without limitations, yielding an adjusted RTP rate of 10 patients (77%) who either returned to competitive play or believed they could return if they had not graduated. At final follow-up, athletes reported significant improvements in all PRO scores except for KOOS-Sport, WOMAC-Stiffness, and SF-12 Mental subscales. There were 3 reoperations at an average of 3.8 ± 3.3 years after the index OCA. There were no instances of graft failure. OCAs provide an adjusted RTP rate of 77% for high-level adolescent athletes. Social factors may be more likely than persistent pain to prevent return to sport. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MHD oscillations observed in the solar photosphere with the Michelson Doppler Imager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, A.; Ulrich, R. K.; Bogart, R. S.; Bush, R. I.; Hoeksema, J. T.

Magnetohydrodynamic oscillations are observed in the solar photosphere with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI). Images of solar surface velocity and magnetic field strength with 4'' spatial resolution and a 60 second temporal resolution are analyzed. A two dimensional gaussian aperture with a FWHM of 10'' is applied to the data in regions of sunspot, plage and quiet sun and the resulting averaged signal is returned each minute. Significant power is observed in the magnetic field oscillations with periods of five minutes. The effect of misregistration between MDI's left circularly polarized (LCP) and right circularly polarized (RCP) images has been investigated and is found not to be the cause of the observed magnetic oscillations. It is assumed that the large amplitude acoustic waves with 5 minute periods are the driving mechanism behind the magnetic oscillations. The nature of the magnetohydrodynamic oscillations are characterized by their phase relations with simultaneously observed solar surface velocity oscillations.

Performance Metrics in Professional Baseball Pitchers before and after Surgical Treatment for Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

PubMed

Thompson, Robert W; Dawkins, Corey; Vemuri, Chandu; Mulholland, Michael W; Hadzinsky, Tyler D; Pearl, Gregory J

2017-02-01

High-performance throwing athletes may be susceptible to the development of neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome (NTOS). This condition can be career-threatening but the outcomes of treatment for NTOS in elite athletes have not been well characterized. The purpose of this study was to utilize objective performance metrics to evaluate the impact of surgical treatment for NTOS in Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers. Thirteen established MLB pitchers underwent operations for NTOS between July 2001 and July 2014. For those returning to MLB, traditional and advanced (PitchF/x) MLB performance metrics were acquired from public databases for various time-period scenarios before and after surgery, with comparisons made using paired t-tests, Wilcoxon matched-pair signed-rank tests, and Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance. Ten of 13 pitchers (77%) achieved a sustained return to MLB, with a mean age of 30.2 ± 1.4 years at the time of surgery and 10.8 ± 1.5 months of postoperative rehabilitation before the return to MLB. Pre- and postoperative career data revealed no significant differences for 15 traditional pitching metrics, including earned run average (ERA), fielding independent pitching, walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP), walks per 9 innings, and strikeouts to walk ratio (SO/BB). There were also no significant differences between the 3 years before and the 3 years after surgical treatment. Using PitchF/x data for 72 advanced metrics and 25 different time-period scenarios, the highest number of significant relationships (n = 18) was observed for the 8 weeks before/12 weeks after scenario. In this analysis, 54 (75%) measures were unchanged (including ERA, WHIP, and SO/BB) and 14 (19%) were significantly improved, while only 4 (6%) were significantly decreased (including hard pitch maximal velocity 93.1 ± 1.0 vs. 92.5 ± 0.9 miles/hr, P = 0.047). Six pitchers remained active in MLB during the study period, while the other 4 had retired due to factors or injuries unrelated to NTOS. Objective performance metrics demonstrate that pitchers returning to MLB after surgery for NTOS have had capabilities equivalent to or better than before treatment. Thoracic outlet decompression coupled with an ample period of postoperative rehabilitation can provide effective treatment for professional baseball pitchers with career-threatening NTOS. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aspects of energy transitions: History and determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Peter A.

Energy intensity in the U.S. from 1780 to 2010 shows a declining trend when traditional energy is included, in contrast to the "inverted U-curve" seen when only commercial energy is considered. The analysis quantifies use of human and animal muscle power, wind and water power, biomass, harvested ice, fossil fuels, and nuclear power. Historical prices are provided for many energy resources. The analysis reaffirms the importance of innovation in conversion technologies in energy transitions. An increase in energy intensity in the early 20th century is explained by diminishing returns to pre-electric manufacturing systems, which produced a transformation in manufacturing. In comparison to similar studies for other countries, the U.S. has generally higher energy intensity. A population-weighted series of heating degree days and cooling degree days partially explains differences in energy intensity. Series are developed for 231 countries and territories with multiple reference temperatures, with a "wet-bulb" series accounting for the effects of humidity. Other variables considered include energy prices, income per capita, and governance indices. A panel regression of thirty-two countries from 1995 to 2010 establishes GDP per capita and share of primary energy as determinants of energy intensity, but fails to establish statistical significance of the climate variables. A group mean regression finds average heating and cooling degree days to be significant predictors of average energy intensity over the study period, increasing energy intensity by roughly 1.5 kJ per 2005 international dollar for each annual degree day. Group mean regression results explain differences in countries' average energy intensity, but not changes within a country over time. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) influences the economic competitiveness and environmental impacts of an energy resource and is one driver of energy transitions. The EROI of U.S. petroleum production has declined since 1972, with a partial rebound in the 1980s and 1990s. External Energy Return (EER), which excludes the consumption of energy from within the resource, falls by two-thirds from 1972 to 2007. A literature review finds the projected EROI of oil shale to be much lower than the EROI of U.S. petroleum production.

Femoroacetabular impingement in 45 professional athletes: associated pathologies and return to sport following arthroscopic decompression

PubMed Central

Schenker, Mara; Briggs, Karen; Kuppersmith, David

2007-01-01

Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) occurs when an osseous abnormality of the proximal femur (cam) or acetabulum (pincer) triggers damage to the acetabular labrum and articular cartilage in the hip. Although the precise etiology of FAI is not well understood, both types of FAI are common in athletes presenting with hip pain, loss of range-of-motion, and disability in athletics. An open surgical approach to decompressing FAI has shown good clinical outcomes; however, this highly invasive approach inherently may delay or preclude a high level athlete’s return to play. The purpose of this study was to define associated pathologies and determine if an arthroscopic approach to treating FAI can allow professional athletes to return to high-level sport. Hip arthroscopy for the treatment of FAI allows professional athletes to return to professional sport. Between October 2000 and September 2005, 45 professional athletes underwent hip arthroscopy for the decompression of FAI. Operative and return-to-play data were obtained from patient records. Average time to follow-up was 1.6 years (range: 6 months to 5.5 years). Forty two (93%) athletes returned to professional competition following arthroscopic decompression of FAI. Three athletes did not return to play; however, all had diffuse osteoarthritis at the time of arthroscopy. Thirty-five athletes (78%) remain active in professional sport at an average follow-up of 1.6 years. Arthroscopic treatment of FAI allows professional athletes to return to professional sport. PMID:17479250

From theoretical fixed return period events to real flooding impacts: a new approach to set flooding scenarios, thresholds and alerts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parravicini, Paola; Cislaghi, Matteo; Condemi, Leonardo

2017-04-01

ARPA Lombardia is the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy, a wide region in the North of Italy. ARPA is in charge of river monitoring either for Civil Protection or water balance purposes. It cooperates with the Civil Protection Agency of Lombardy (RL-PC) in flood forecasting and early warning. The early warning system is based on rainfall and discharge thresholds: when a threshold exceeding is expected, RL-PC disseminates an alert from yellow to red. The conventional threshold evaluation is based on events at a fixed return period. Anyway, the impacts of events with the same return period may be different along the river course due to the specific characteristics of the affected areas. A new approach is introduced. It defines different scenarios, corresponding to different flood impacts. A discharge threshold is then associated to each scenario and the return period of the scenario is computed backwards. Flood scenarios are defined in accordance with National Civil Protection guidelines, which describe the expected flood impact and associate a colour to the scenario from green (no relevant effects) to red (major floods). A range of discharges is associated with each scenario since they cause the same flood impact; the threshold is set as the discharge corresponding to the transition between two scenarios. A wide range of event-based information is used to estimate the thresholds. As first guess, the thresholds are estimated starting from hydraulic model outputs and the people or infrastructures flooded according to the simulations. Eventually the model estimates are validated with real event knowledge: local Civil Protection Emergency Plans usually contain very detailed local impact description at known river levels or discharges, RL-PC collects flooding information notified by the population, newspapers often report flood events on web, data from the river monitoring network provide evaluation of actually happened levels and discharges. The methodology allows to give a return period for each scenario. The return period may vary along the river course according to the discharges associated with the scenario. The values of return period may show the areas characterized by higher risk and can be an important basis for civil protection emergency planning and river monitoring. For example, considering the Lambro River, the red scenario (major flood) shows a return period of 50 years in the northern rural part of the catchment. When the river crosses the city of Milan, the return period drops to 4 years. Afterwards it goes up to more than 100 years when the river flows in the agricultural areas in the southern part of the catchment. In addition, the knowledge gained with event-based analysis allows evaluating the compliance of the monitoring network with early warning requirements and represents the starting point for further development of the network itself.

Advanced Unmanned Search System (AUSS) Surface Navigation, Underwater Tracking, and Transponder Network Calibration

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

5 ENTER PULSE REP PERIOD ................................ 900 ENTER RETURN TO TOP LEVEL C-5 26. SBS1 RECEIVER ----- HYDROPHONE ----- HYDRI ...HYDROPHONE ----- HYDRI PRECISION RETURN 1 LEVEL 29. HEADING INPUT ------ GYRO 1 ------ CONTINUE RANGE GATE OFF ----- FILTER OFF RETURN TO TOP LEVEL 30...700 ENTER RETURN TO TOP LEVEL 12. SBSI RECEIVER ------ HYDROPHONE ------ HYDRI PRECISION RETURN 1 LEVEL 13. HEADING INPUT ------ GYRO 1

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson methodmore » the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6.5 which the return period 24.7 year, %92 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7 which the return period 39.1 year, %80 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7.5 which the return period 62.1 year, %64 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 8 which the return period 98.5 year. For the Marmara Region (Region 2) in the next 100 year estimated that %89 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6 which the return period 44.9 year, %45 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6.5 which the return period 87 year, %45 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7 which the return period 168.6 year.« less

Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets.

PubMed

Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai

2015-01-01

This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Directional Movement Indicator and On Balance Volume. Performances are compared to a simple Buy-and-Hold. Statistical tests are also performed. Our empirical results show a strong performance of technical trading rules in an emerging stock market of Thailand but not in a more mature stock market of Singapore. The technical trading rules also generate statistical significant returns in the Malaysian, Indonesian and the Philippine markets. However, after taking transaction costs into account, most technical trading rules do not generate net returns. This fact suggests different levels of market efficiency among Southeast Asian stock markets. This paper finds three new insights. Firstly, technical indicators does not help much in terms of market timing. Basically, traders cannot expect to buy at a relative low price and sell at a relative high price by just using technical trading rules. Secondly, technical trading rules can be beneficial to individual investors as they help them to counter the behavioral bias called disposition effects which is the tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and holding on to losing stocks too long. Thirdly, even profitable strategies could not reliably predict subsequent market directions. They make money from having a higher average profit from profitable trades than an average loss from unprofitable ones.

Design of mechanically stabilized earth wall connections and end of walls subjected to seismic loads.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

The 4th Edition of the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications requires all states to design for a 1,000- : year return period earthquake, as opposed to earlier editions 500-year return period. In response to this : requirement, the Colorado Depa...

Concussion Incidence and Return-to-Play Time in National Basketball Association Players: Results From 2006 to 2014.

PubMed

Padaki, Ajay S; Cole, Brian J; Ahmad, Christopher S

2016-09-01

Various research efforts have studied concussions in the National Football League, Major League Baseball, and the National Hockey League. However, no study has investigated the incidence and return-to-play trends in the National Basketball Association (NBA), which this study aims to do. Increased media scrutiny and public awareness, in addition to the institution of a league-wide concussion protocol, may have resulted in more conservative return-to-play practices. Descriptive epidemiology study. All concussions to NBA players that were publicly reported in the media from the beginning of the 2006 NBA season to the end of the 2014 season were included. The incidence and return-to-play statistics were generated by synthesizing information from publicly available records. There were 134 publicly reported concussions to NBA players from the beginning of the 2006 season to the conclusion of the 2014 season, resulting in an average of 14.9 concussions per season. The incidence has not changed significantly during this time span. The average games missed after a concussion from 2006 to 2010 was 1.6, significantly less than the 5.0 games missed from 2011 to 2014, following the institution of the NBA concussion protocol (P = .023). Although the incidence of publicly reported concussions in the NBA has not changed appreciably over the past 9 seasons, the time missed after a concussion has. While players often returned in the same game in the 2006 season, the combination of implemented policy, national coverage, medical staff awareness, and player education may have contributed to players now missing an average of 4 to 6 games after a concussion. A multitude of factors has resulted in more conservative return-to-play practices for NBA players after concussions. © 2016 The Author(s).

Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

2012-01-01

The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

Reproductive performance of Norwegian cattle from 1985 to 2005: trends and seasonality

PubMed Central

Refsdal, Arne Ola

2007-01-01

Declining reproductive performance is a serious breeding concern in many countries. To reveal the situation in Norwegian cattle, trends in reproductive performance were studied using insemination reports from 1985 to 2005 and data based on herd recording files from 1989 to 2005. The total number of first services was 469.765 in 1985 declining to 335.712 in 2005. The number of recorded herds and animals declined from 21.588 to 14.718 and 360.289 to 309.452 from 1989 to 2005, respectively. Sixty days non-return rate after single inseminations (NR60) increased from 68.1 in 1985 to 72.7% in 2005 (p < 0.001) and the number of services per inseminated animal (NIA) decreased from 1.8 to 1.6 (p < 0.001) from 1985 to 2005. However, return rates 0–3 days post insemination (RR0-3) increased from 6 to 12% in the same period (p < 0.001). NR60 was higher and the RR0-3 was lower in the summer season compared to the winter season during the whole period. A fertility index (FS), has been calculated from the herd recording files each year from 1989 to 2005. The average FS-index did not show a significant trend and the calving interval was also fairly constant between 12.4 and 12.6 months during this period. The average interval from calving to first and last insemination, respectively, increased from a low of 79 and 102 days in 1990 to a high of 86 and 108 days in 2005. Both intervals were consistently longer for cows in first lactation than for cows in later lactations. The percentage of inseminated animals reported culled because of poor fertility decreased from 6.0% in 1989 to 4.6% in 1996 and thereafter again increased to 6% in 2005. In conclusion, most fertility measures, mainly comprising the Norwegian Red (NRF) breed, show a relatively high level of reproductive performance with a positive or a relatively constant trend during the last two decades. PMID:17295930

Non-linear feature extraction from HRV signal for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patient.

PubMed

Karimi Moridani, Mohammad; Setarehdan, Seyed Kamaledin; Motie Nasrabadi, Ali; Hajinasrollah, Esmaeil

2016-01-01

Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are at risk of in-ICU morbidities and mortality, making specific systems for identifying at-risk patients a necessity for improving clinical care. This study presents a new method for predicting in-hospital mortality using heart rate variability (HRV) collected from the times of a patient's ICU stay. In this paper, a HRV time series processing based method is proposed for mortality prediction of ICU cardiovascular patients. HRV signals were obtained measuring R-R time intervals. A novel method, named return map, is then developed that reveals useful information from the HRV time series. This study also proposed several features that can be extracted from the return map, including the angle between two vectors, the area of triangles formed by successive points, shortest distance to 45° line and their various combinations. Finally, a thresholding technique is proposed to extract the risk period and to predict mortality. The data used to evaluate the proposed algorithm obtained from 80 cardiovascular ICU patients, from the first 48 h of the first ICU stay of 40 males and 40 females. This study showed that the angle feature has on average a sensitivity of 87.5% (with 12 false alarms), the area feature has on average a sensitivity of 89.58% (with 10 false alarms), the shortest distance feature has on average a sensitivity of 85.42% (with 14 false alarms) and, finally, the combined feature has on average a sensitivity of 92.71% (with seven false alarms). The results showed that the last half an hour before the patient's death is very informative for diagnosing the patient's condition and to save his/her life. These results confirm that it is possible to predict mortality based on the features introduced in this paper, relying on the variations of the HRV dynamic characteristics.

Vacuum-assisted closure device as a split-thickness skin graft bolster in the burn population.

PubMed

Waltzman, Joshua T; Bell, Derek E

2014-01-01

The vacuum-assisted closure device (VAC) is associated with improved wound healing outcomes. Its use as a bolster device to secure a split-thickness skin graft has been previously demonstrated; however, there is little published evidence demonstrating its benefits specifically in the burn population. With use of the VAC becoming more commonplace, its effect on skin graft take and overall time to healing in burn patients deserves further investigation. Retrospective review of burn registry database at a high-volume level I trauma center and regional burn center during a 16-month period was performed. Patients who had a third-degree burn injury requiring a split-thickness skin graft and who received a VAC bolster were included. Data points included age, sex, burn mechanism, burn location, grafted area in square centimeters, need for repeat grafting, percent graft take, and time to complete reepithelialization. Sixty-seven patients were included in the study with a total of 88 skin graft sites secured with a VAC. Age ranged from <1 year to 84 years (average 41 years). The average grafted area was 367 ± 545 cm. The three most common were the leg, thigh, and arm (28, 15, and 12%, respectively). Average percent graft take was 99.5 ± 1.5%. Notably, no patients returned to the operating room for repeat grafting. The average time to complete reepithelialization was 16 ± 7 days. The VAC is a highly reliable and reproducible method to bolster a split-thickness skin graft in the burn population. The observed rate of zero returns to the operating room for repeat grafting was especially encouraging. Its ability to conform to contours of the body and cover large surface areas makes it especially useful in securing a graft. This method of bolstering results in decreased repeat grafting and minimal graft loss, thus decreasing morbidity compared with conventional bolster dressings.

Association between Stock Market Gains and Losses and Google Searches

PubMed Central

Arditi, Eli; Yechiam, Eldad; Zahavi, Gal

2015-01-01

Experimental studies in the area of Psychology and Behavioral Economics have suggested that people change their search pattern in response to positive and negative events. Using Internet search data provided by Google, we investigated the relationship between stock-specific events and related Google searches. We studied daily data from 13 stocks from the Dow-Jones and NASDAQ100 indices, over a period of 4 trading years. Focusing on periods in which stocks were extensively searched (Intensive Search Periods), we found a correlation between the magnitude of stock returns at the beginning of the period and the volume, peak, and duration of search generated during the period. This relation between magnitudes of stock returns and subsequent searches was considerably magnified in periods following negative stock returns. Yet, we did not find that intensive search periods following losses were associated with more Google searches than periods following gains. Thus, rather than increasing search, losses improved the fit between people’s search behavior and the extent of real-world events triggering the search. The findings demonstrate the robustness of the attentional effect of losses. PMID:26513371

Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Control on Return from International Space Station (CCISS)- Heart Rate and Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughson, R. L.; Shoemaker, J. K.; Blaber, A. P.; Arbeille, Ph.; Zuj, K. A.; Greaves, D. K.

2008-06-01

CCISS is a project to study the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular responses of astronauts before, during and after long-duration (>60-day) stays on the International Space Station. The CCISS experiments consist of three phases that are designed to achieve an integrated examination of components responsible for return of blood to the heart, the pumping of blood from the heart and the distribution to the vascular territories including the brain. In this report the data are obtained from the 24-h monitoring of physical activity (Actiwatch on wrist and ankle) and of heart rate (Holter monitor). The data show clear patterns of change in physical activity from predominantly leg-based on Earth to relatively little activity of the ankles with maintained or increased activity of the wrists on ISS. Both on Earth and on ISS the largest changes in heart rate occur during the periods of leg activity. Average heart rate was changed little during the periods of minimal activity or of sleep in comparisons of Earth with in-flight recording both within the first two weeks of flight and the last two weeks. These data clearly show the importance of monitoring heart rate and physical activity simultaneously and show that attempts to derive indicators of autonomic activity from spectral analysis of heart rate variability should not be performed in the absence of knowledge of both variables.

Concussions are associated with decreased batting performance among Major League Baseball players.

PubMed

Wasserman, Erin B; Abar, Beau; Shah, Manish N; Wasserman, Daniel; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

2015-05-01

Concussions impair balance, visual acuity, and reaction time--all of which are required for high-level batting performance--but the effects of concussion on batting performance have not been reported. The authors examined this relationship between concussion and batting performance among Major League Baseball (MLB) players. Batting performance among concussed MLB players will be worse upon return to play than batting performance among players missing time for noninjury reasons. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. The authors identified MLB players who sustained a concussion between 2007 and 2013 through league disabled-list records and a Baseball Prospectus database. For a comparison group, they identified players who went on paternity or bereavement leave during the same period. Using repeated-measures generalized linear models, the authors compared 7 batting metrics between the 2 groups for the 2 weeks upon return, as well as 4 to 6 weeks after return, controlling for pre-leave batting metrics, number of days missed, and position. The authors identified 66 concussions and 68 episodes of bereavement/paternity leave to include in the analysis. In the 2 weeks after return, batting average (.235 vs .266), on-base percentage (.294 vs .326), slugging percentage (.361 vs .423), and on-base plus slugging (.650 vs .749) were significantly lower among concussed players relative to the bereavement/paternity leave players (time×group interaction, P<.05). In weeks 4 to 6 after leave, these metrics were slightly lower in concussed players but not statistically significantly so. Although concussed players may be asymptomatic upon return to play, the residual effects of concussion on the skills required for batting may still be present. Further work is needed to clarify the mechanism through which batting performance after concussion is adversely affected and to identify better measures to use for return-to-play decisions. © 2015 The Author(s).

The Heart of the Matter: Increasing Quality and Charge Capture from Intraoperative Transesophageal Echocardiography.

PubMed

Sanford, Joseph A; Kadry, Bassam; Oakes, Daryl; Macario, Alex; Schmiesing, Cliff

2016-04-15

Although transesophageal echocardiography is routinely performed at our institution, there is no easy way to document the procedure in the electronic medical record and generate a bill compliant with reimbursement requirements. We present the results of a quality improvement project that used agile development methodology to incorporate intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography into the electronic medical record. We discuss improvements in the quality of clinical documentation, technical workflow challenges overcome, and cost and time to return on investment. Billing was increased from an average of 36% to 84.6% when compared with the same time period in the previous year. The expected recoupment of investment for this project is just 18 weeks.

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

PubMed Central

HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

Water withdrawals, wastewater discharge, and water consumption in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, 2005, and water-use trends, 1970-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marella, Richard L.; Fanning, Julia L.

2011-01-01

In 2000, an estimated 49 percent of the water withdrawn for public supply in the basin was consumed, and the remaining 51 percent was returned to the hydrologic system through wastewater treatment systems. In 2005, an estimated 38 percent was consumed and 62 percent was returned to the hydrologic system. This contrast between water withdrawals and wastewater discharges for these years was caused primarily by below-average rainfall during 2000 (a dry year) and above-average rainfall during 2005 (a wet year).

Mid- and long-term efficacy of the arthroscopic patellar release for treatment of patellar tendinopathy unresponsive to nonoperative management.

PubMed

Maier, Dirk; Bornebusch, Lutz; Salzmann, Gian M; Südkamp, Norbert P; Ogon, Peter

2013-08-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the mid- and long-term efficacy of the arthroscopic patellar release (APR) in a representative number of competitive athletes. This prospective study included 35 competitive athletes who underwent APR for treatment of chronic refractory patellar tendinopathy. The minimum follow-up period was 24 months. Preoperatively and at follow-up, we measured the Swedish Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment for Patella (VISA-P) and modified Blazina score for assessment of functional outcome. The patients rated their subjective knee function (0% to 100%) and maximum pain during exercise on a visual analog scale (0 to 10 points). We inquired about time required for full return to sports. Thirty athletes (27 male individuals, 3 female individuals) were available for clinical examination after a mean follow-up period of 4.4 years (σ = 3.0 years). The follow-up rate was 30 of 35 (86%). Mean age at surgery was 27.6 years (σ = 7.4). The mean VISA-P score improved from 57.3 (σ = 11.4) to 95.1 (σ = 8.2) and the mean Blazina score improved from 4.0 (σ = 0.8) to 0.3 (σ = 0.7). Average subjective knee function improved from 48.8% (σ = 18.5%) to 90.5% (σ = 9.8%). The mean pain level decreased from 5.7 (σ = 1.1) to 0.6 (σ = 1.2%). All changes were significant (P < .01). Twenty-three (76.7%) athletes were able to perform sports at previous levels without any symptoms. The mean time required for full return to sports was 4.4 months (1.5 to 12.0 months; σ = 3.3). Less pronounced symptoms recurred in 3 (10%) athletes. After APR, 97% of patients obtained excellent or good functional outcomes with a mean follow-up of 4.4 years. Three of 4 athletes achieved asymptomatic previous sports levels, returning to full sports at an average of 4.4 months. Symptoms partially recurred in 10% of participants. Level IV: prospective therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2013 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Relationship of intraoperative cerebral oxygen saturation to neurodevelopmental outcome and brain magnetic resonance imaging at 1 year of age in infants undergoing biventricular repair.

PubMed

Kussman, Barry D; Wypij, David; Laussen, Peter C; Soul, Janet S; Bellinger, David C; DiNardo, James A; Robertson, Richard; Pigula, Frank A; Jonas, Richard A; Newburger, Jane W

2010-07-20

Near-infrared spectroscopy monitoring of cerebral oxygen saturation (rSo(2)) has become routine in many centers, but no studies have reported the relationship of intraoperative near-infrared spectroscopy to long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes after cardiac surgery. Of 104 infants undergoing biventricular repair without aortic arch reconstruction, 89 (86%) returned for neurodevelopmental testing at 1 year of age. The primary near-infrared spectroscopy variable was the integrated rSo(2) (area under the curve) for rSo(2)

20 CFR 617.12 - Evidence of qualification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... qualifying requirements in § 617.11; (2) The individual's average weekly wage; and (3) For an individual claiming to be partially separated, the average weekly hours and average weekly wage in adversely affected... records, income tax returns, or statements of fellow workers, and shall be verified by the employer. (d...

Characteristics of downward leaders in a cloud-to-ground lightning strike on a lightning rod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Caixia; Sun, Zhuling; Jiang, Rubin; Tian, Yangmeng; Qie, Xiushu

2018-05-01

A natural downward negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was observed at a close distance of 370 m by using electric field change measurements and a high-speed camera at 5400 frames per second (fps). Two subsequent leader-return strokes of the lightning hit a lightning rod installed on the top of a seven-story building in Beijing city, while the grounding point for the stepped leader-first return stroke was 12 m away, on the roof of the building. The 2-D average speed of the downward stepped leader (L1) before the first return stroke (R1) was approximately 5.1 × 104 m/s during its propagation over the 306 m above the building, and those before the subsequent strokes (R2 and R3) ranged from 1.1 × 106 m/s to 2.2 × 106 m/s. An attempted leader (AL) occurred 201 ms after R1 and 10 ms before R2 reached approximately 99 m above the roof and failed to connect to the ground. The 2-D average speed of the AL was approximately 7.4 × 104 m/s. The luminosity at tip of the leader was brighter than the channel behind it. The leader inducing the R2 with an alteration of terminating point was a dart-stepped leader (DSL), which propagated through the channel of AL and continued to develop downward with new branches at about 17 m above the roof. The 2-D speed of the DSL at the bottom 99 m was 6.6 × 105 m/s. The average time interval between the stepped pulses of the DSL was approximately 10 μs, smaller than that of L1 with value of about 17 μs. The average step lengths of the DSL were approximately 6.6 m. The study shows that the stepped leader-first return stroke of lightning will not always hit the tip of a tall metal rod due to the significant branching property of the leader. However, under certain conditions, the subsequent return strokes may alter the grounding point to the tip of a tall metal rod. For the lightning rod, the protection against subsequent return strokes may be better than that against the first return stroke.

Reunifying abused or neglected children: Decision-making and outcomes.

PubMed

Biehal, Nina; Sinclair, Ian; Wade, Jim

2015-11-01

Little is known about decision-making regarding the reunification of children in care, or about the consequences of these decisions for the children concerned. This study compared decision-making and outcomes for 149 maltreated children in seven English authorities (68 reunified, 81 who remained in care). Children were followed up six months after their return home or, for those who were not reunified, six months after the 'effective decision' that they should remain in care. They were followed up again four years (on average) after the return or effective decision. Data were extracted from case files at baseline and six month follow-up and were gathered from surveys of social workers and teachers at final follow-up. The two key predictors of reunification were assessments that parental problems had improved and that risks to the child were not unacceptably high. Two-thirds returned to improved family circumstances, sometimes due to a change in the household they returned to, but others were reunified despite persisting concerns. However 35% re-entered care within six months and 63% re-entered at some point during the four-year follow-up period, often due to recurring abuse or neglect. At final follow-up remaining in care was the strongest predictor of positive outcomes on a range of dimensions, even once children's characteristics and histories were taken into account. Outcomes were especially poor for neglected children who were reunified, irrespective of whether reunification was stable or unstable. Results show the potential of the care system to produce positive outcomes for maltreated children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Femoroacetabular Impingement in Professional Football Players: Return to Play and Predictors of Career Length After Hip Arthroscopy.

PubMed

Menge, Travis J; Bhatia, Sanjeev; McNamara, Shannen C; Briggs, Karen K; Philippon, Marc J

2017-07-01

Previous studies have shown hip arthroscopy to be a highly effective treatment for symptomatic femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) in a wide range of athletes; however, the rate of return to play and length of career after hip arthroscopy in professional football players are unknown. To determine how many athletes returned to professional football and the number of seasons they played after surgery. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Fifty-one professional football players (60 hips) underwent hip arthroscopy for FAI between 2000 and 2014 by a single surgeon. Return to play was defined as competing in a preseason or regular season professional football game after surgery. Data were retrospectively obtained for each player from NFL.com , ESPN.com , individual team websites, and/or CFL.ca . We found that 87% (52/60) of the arthroscopic procedures allowed professional football players to return to play in a preseason or regular season game. Athletes who returned played an average of 38 games during 3.2 seasons after arthroscopy, with an average total career length of 7.4 seasons. Ninety-two percent (48/52) of players who returned had a minimum total career length of 3 years. When participants were analyzed by position, linemen were less likely to return after hip arthroscopy compared with other players (odds ratio 5.6; 95% CI, 1.1-35; P = .04). All quarterbacks and tight ends returned to play after surgery. No significant difference in return to play rate was found between athletes who underwent microfracture and those who did not (25% vs 38%, P = .698). Hip arthroscopy for treatment of FAI and associated pathologic abnormalities in professional football players resulted in a high rate of return to play. The study's findings demonstrate that 87% of the arthroscopic procedures allowed professional football players to return to play, linemen were less likely to return compared with other positions, and the presence of microfracture did not significantly affect the return to play rate. These findings support hip arthroscopy as an effective procedure to treat FAI and related pathologic abnormalities in the professional football player, and this information is important for proper counseling of athletes with FAI.

Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2017-12-01

Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

Pitching performance and longevity after revision ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction in Major League Baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Marshall, Nathan E; Keller, Robert A; Lynch, Jonathan R; Bey, Michael J; Moutzouros, Vasilios

2015-05-01

Medial ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction is a common procedure performed on professional pitchers in Major League Baseball (MLB). Although a great deal is known about primary reconstruction, much less is known about revision reconstruction. The purpose of this study was to evaluate statistical performance, return to play, and career longevity in MLB pitchers after revision UCL surgery, with the hypothesis that pitching performance and career longevity will decline after revision surgery. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 33 MLB pitchers who underwent revision UCL reconstruction surgery (UCL-R group) were identified and compared with 33 age- and position-matched controls (CTL group). Return to play, total years played, and statistical performance were evaluated and compared with controls. After revision surgery, 65.5% of UCL-R pitchers returned to the MLB level. On average, the UCL-R pitchers played 0.8 years less in the majors (P<.01) than did the control pitchers. The UCL-R pitchers who returned to the MLB level had a similar earned run average (UCL-R: 4.88, CTL: 4.76, P=.82) and walks/hits per innings pitched (UCL-R: 1.58, CTL: 1.44, P=.22) compared with the control pitchers. There were significant declines, however, in terms of innings pitched (UCL-R: 36.95, CTL: 75.00, P<.01), walks per 9 innings (UCL-R: 4.75, CTL: 3.49, P<.01), and wins (UCL-R: 1.88, CTL: 4.10, P<.01) as well as nonsignificant declines in wins above replacement (UCL-R: 0.25, CTL: 0.62, P=.06) and runs above replacement (UCL-R: 3.26, CTL: 6.91, P=.07). MLB pitchers who undergo UCL-R have a low rate of return to MLB play and have shortened careers after return. Pitchers who returned to the MLB level maintained performance in several statistics such as earned run average and walks/hits per innings pitched; however, pitchers returned with a significantly decreased workload. © 2015 The Author(s).

Soyuz 24 Return Samples: Assessment of Air Quality Aboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.

2011-01-01

Fifteen mini-grab sample containers (m-GSCs) were returned aboard Soyuz. This is the first time all samples were acquired with the mini-grab samplers. The toxicological assessment of 15 m-GSCs from the ISS is shown. The recoveries of the 3 internal standards, C(13)-acetone, fluorobenzene, and chlorobenzene, from the GSCs averaged 75, 97 and 79%, respectively. Formaldehyde badges were not returned on Soyuz 24

Femur Fractures in Professional Athletes: A Case Series

PubMed Central

Sikka, Robby; Fetzer, Gary; Hunkele, Thomas; Sugarman, Eric; Boyd, Joel

2015-01-01

Objective: To discuss return to play after femur fractures in several professional athletes. Background: Femur fractures are rare injuries and can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. No reports exist, to our knowledge, on return to play after treatment of isolated femur fractures in professional athletes. Return to play is expected in patients with femur fractures, but recovery can take more than 1 year, with an expected decrease in performance. Treatment: Four professional athletes sustained isolated femur fractures during regular-season games. Two athletes played hockey, 1 played football, and 1 played baseball. Three players were treated with anterograde intramedullary nails, and 1 was treated with retrograde nailing. All players missed the remainder of the season. At an average of 9.5 months (range, 7–13 months) from the time of injury, all athletes were able to return to play. One player required the removal of painful hardware, which delayed his return to sport. Final radiographs revealed that all fractures were well healed. No athletes had subjective complaints or concerns that performance was affected by the injury at an average final follow-up of 25 months (range, 22–29 months). Uniqueness: As the size and speed of players increase, on-field trauma may result in significant injury. All players returned to previous levels of performance or exceeded previous statistical performance levels. Conclusions: In professional athletes, return to play from isolated femur fractures treated with either an anterograde or retrograde intramedullary nail is possible within 1 year. Return to the previous level of performance is possible, and it is important to develop management protocols, including rehabilitation guidelines, for such injuries. However, return to play may be delayed by subsequent procedures, including hardware removal. PMID:25680071

Estimated water use and availability in the East Narragansett Bay study area, Rhode Island, 1995-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wild, Emily C.

2007-01-01

Water availability became a concern in Rhode Island during a drought in 1999, and further investigation was needed to assess the current demands on the hydrologic system from withdrawals during periods of little to no precipitation. The low ground-water levels and streamflows measured in Rhode Island prompted initiation of a series of studies on water use and availability in each major drainage area in Rhode Island for the period 1995–99. The investigation of the East Narragansett Bay area is the last of these studies. The East Narragansett Bay study area (130.9 square miles) includes small sections of the Ten Mile and Westport River Basins in Rhode Island. The area was divided into three regions (islands and contiguous land areas separated by the bay) within each of which the freshwater water use and availability were assessed. During the study period from 1995 through 1999, three major public water suppliers in the study area withdrew 7.601 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) from ground-water and surface-water reservoirs. The estimated water withdrawals by minor public water suppliers during the study period were 0.063 Mgal/d. Total self-supply domestic, industrial, commercial, and agricultural withdrawals from the study area averaged 1.891 Mgal/d. Total water use in the study area averaged 16.48 Mgal/d, of which about 8.750 Mgal/d was imported from other basins. The average return flow to freshwater within the basin was 2.591 Mgal/d, which included effluent from permitted facilities and septic systems. The average return flow to saltwater (Narragansett Bay) outside of the basin was about 45.21 Mgal/d and included discharges by permitted facilities (wastewater-treatment plants and Rhode Island Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems). The PART program, a computerized hydrographseparation application, was used for the data collected at two selected index stream-gaging stations in the East Narragansett Bay study area to determine water availability on the basis of the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles of the total base flow; the base flow for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario; and the base flow for the Aquatic Base Flow scenario for both stations. Base flows in the study area were lowest in September for the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles. The safe yields determined for the surface-water reservoirs (14.10 Mgal/d) were added to the estimated available ground water (gross yield) in the Southeastern Narragansett and East Narragansett Islands regions to give the total available water. The water availability in the study area at the 50th percentile ranged from 33.18 Mgal/d in September to 94.62 Mgal/d in June, water availability for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario at the 50th percentile ranged from 21.87 Mgal/d in September to 83.03 Mgal/d in June, and water availability for the Aquatic Base Flow scenario at the 50th percentile ranged from 14.10 Mgal/d in August and September to 65.48 Mgal/d in June. Because water withdrawals and use are greater during the summer than at other times of the year, water availability in June, July, August, and September was compared to water withdrawals in the three regions. For the study period, the withdrawals in July were higher than in the other summer months. For the 50th percentile, the ratios of water withdrawn to water available were close to one in August for the estimated basic and Aquatic Base Flow scenarios and in September for the estimated 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario. For the 25th percentile, the ratios were close to one in August for the estimated basic and for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario, and were close to one in July for the estimated Aquatic Base Flow scenario. A long-term water budget was calculated for the East Narragansett Bay study area to identify and assess inflows and outflows by region. The water withdrawals and return flows used in the budget were from 1995 through 1999. Total inflow and outflow were calculated separately for each region. Inflow was assumed to equal outflow; the total water budget was 292.1 Mgal/d for the study area. Precipitation and return flow were 99 and less than 1 percent of the total estimated inflow to the study area, respectively. Evapotranspiration, streamflow, and water withdrawals were 47, 49, and 3 percent of the total outflow from the study area, respectively.

Recharge studies on the High Plains in northern Lea County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Havens, John S.

1966-01-01

The area described in this report is that part of the southern High Plains principally within northern Lea County, N. Mex. ; it comprises about 1,400,000 acres. Hydrologic boundaries isolate the main aquifer of the area, the Ogallala Formation, from outside sources of natural recharge other than precipitation on the area. Natural recharge to this aquifer from the 15-inch average annual precipitation for the period 1949-60 is estimated to be about 95,000 acre-ft (acre-feet) which is between the 59,000 and 118,000 acre-ft a year obtained from the This estimate (1934) of ? to 1 inch a year. About one-sixth of the water pumped for irrigation, or an average of about 23,000 acre-ft a year in the period 1949-60, returns to the aquifer. The estimated long-term (1939-60) average annual recharge to the aquifer is about 77,000 acre-ft. Discharge from the aquifer is by pumping and underflow from the area. Gross pumpage averaged about 151,000 acre-ft a year in the period 1949-60. Underflow from the area is estimated to have been about 36,000 acre-ft a year. Thus, the estimated average annual discharge from the aquifer was about 187,000 acre-ft a year, and this exceeded recharge by about 69,000 acre-ft a year. This overdraft is reflected in a general net decline of the water table of 10 ft in the period 1950-60 and net declines of as much as 30 feet in local areas. Data obtained during this study indicate that about 100,000 acre-ft of water collects in closed depressions on the surface of the High Plains in years when precipitation is normal. Studies of water losses from ponds in selected depressions indicate that between 20 and 80 percent of this loss recharges the groundwater body and the balance is lost to evapotranspiration, principally evaporation. Artificial recharge facilities constructed in the depressions could put at least 50,000 acre-ft of water underground annually that otherwise would be lost to evaporation. Recharging through pits or spreading ponds would cost less per unit volume of water than recharge through wells.

Exiting and Returning to the Parental Home for Boomerang Kids

PubMed Central

Sandberg-Thoma, Sara E.; Snyder, Anastasia R.; Jang, Bohyun Joy

2015-01-01

Young adults commonly exit from and return to the parental home, yet few studies have examined the motivation behind these exits and returns using a life course framework. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, the authors examined associations between mental health problems and economic characteristics and exits from (n = 8,162), and returns to (n = 6,530), the parental home during the transition to adulthood. The average age of the respondents was 24 years. The authors found evidence that mental health and economic characteristics were related to home leaving and returning. Emotional distress was associated with earlier exits from, and returns to, the parental home; alcohol problems were associated with earlier returns to the parental home. The findings regarding economic resources were unexpectedly mixed. Greater economic resources were linked to delayed exits from, and earlier returns to, the parental home. The implications of these findings for young adults are discussed. PMID:26023244

Exiting and Returning to the Parental Home for Boomerang Kids.

PubMed

Sandberg-Thoma, Sara E; Snyder, Anastasia R; Jang, Bohyun Joy

2015-06-01

Young adults commonly exit from and return to the parental home, yet few studies have examined the motivation behind these exits and returns using a life course framework. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, the authors examined associations between mental health problems and economic characteristics and exits from (n = 8,162), and returns to (n = 6,530), the parental home during the transition to adulthood. The average age of the respondents was 24 years. The authors found evidence that mental health and economic characteristics were related to home leaving and returning. Emotional distress was associated with earlier exits from, and returns to, the parental home; alcohol problems were associated with earlier returns to the parental home. The findings regarding economic resources were unexpectedly mixed. Greater economic resources were linked to delayed exits from, and earlier returns to, the parental home. The implications of these findings for young adults are discussed.

Pigmented villonodular synovitis about the ankle: a review of the literature and presentation in 10 athletic patients.

PubMed

Saxena, Amol; Perez, Hugo

2004-11-01

Pigmented villonodular synovitis (PVNS) is relatively uncommon. The disorder results in increased proliferation of synovium causing villous or nodular changes of synovial-lined joints, bursae and tendon sheaths. This study examines the occurrence of PVNS about the ankle and its association with trauma. Ten patients over a 10-year period were identified as having PVNS of the ankle. The average age was 40.2 (range 27 to 62) years. There were four women and six men. Average followup was 4.5 (range 1 to 11) years from the initial surgery. Four patients had bone involvement. All patients who were athletically active before symptoms arose complained of persistent pain and swelling in the lateral ankle. Their initial clinical symptoms were indistinguishable from commonly associated pathologies with persistent lateral ankle pain (i.e. tenosynovitis, osteochondral defects, os trigonum injury, and tendon tears). All patients had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealing PVNS, which is represented by low-signal appearing masses on T1- and T2-weighted images. All patients' histopathology results revealed multinucleated giant cells and foam cells laden with hemosiderin deposits. All patients had synovectomy and tenosynovectomy. Eight patients were able to return to some sports (range 4 to 12 months); two had continued pain, disability, and inability to return to sports because of recurrence. PVNS should be considered in athletically active patients with persistent lateral ankle pain and swelling, particularly if bone erosions are visible on plain radiographs.

An assessment of flow data from Klamath River sites between Link River Dam and Keno Dam, south-central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Hess, Glen W.; Fisher, Bruce J.

2006-01-01

Records of diversion and return flows for water years 1961?2004 along a reach of the Klamath River between Link River and Keno Dams in south-central Oregon were evaluated to determine the cause of a water-balance inconsistency in the hydrologic data. The data indicated that the reach was losing flow in the 1960s and 1970s and gaining flow in the 1980s and 1990s. The absolute mean annual net water-balance difference in flows between the first and second half of the 44-year period (1961-2004) was approximately 103,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). The quality of the diversion and return-flow records used in the water balance was evaluated using U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) criteria for accuracy. With the exception of the USGS Klamath River at Keno record, which was rated as 'good' or 'excellent,' the eight other flow records, all from non-USGS flow-measurement sites, were rated as 'poor' by USGS standards due to insufficient data-collection documentation and a lack of direct discharge measurements to verify the rating curves. The record for the Link River site, the most upstream in the study area, included both river and westside power canal flows. Because of rating curve biases, the river flows might have been overestimated by 25,000 acre-ft/yr on average from water years 1961 to 1982 and underestimated by 7,000 acre-ft/yr on average from water years 1983 to 2004. For water years 1984-2004, westside power canal flows might have been underestimated by 11,000 acre-ft/yr. Some diversion and return flows (for mostly agricultural, industrial, and urban use) along the Klamath River study reach, not measured continuously and not included in the water-balance equation, also were evaluated. However, the sum of these diversion and return flows was insufficient to explain the water-balance inconsistency. The possibility that ground-water levels in lands adjacent to the river rose during water years 1961-2004 and caused an increase in ground-water discharge to the river also was evaluated. However, water-level data from local wells did not have a rising trend during the period. The most likely cause of the water-balance inconsistency was flow measurement error in the eight non-USGS flow records. Part of the water-balance inconsistency can be explained by a 43,000 acre-foot error in the river and canal flow portions of the Link River flow record. A remaining 60,000 acre-foot error might have been distributed among the seven other flow records, or much of the remaining 60,000 acre-foot error might have been in the Link River flow record because flows in that record had a greater magnitude than flows in the seven other records. As an additional analysis of the water-balance issue, flow records used in the water balance were evaluated for trends and compared to known changes in water management in the Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project and Lower Klamath and Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuges over the 44-year period. Many of the water-management changes were implemented in the early 1980s. For three diversion flow records, 1983-2004 mean annual flows were 16,000, 8,000, and 21,000 acre-ft/yr greater than their 1961-82 mean annual flows. Return flows to the Klamath River at two flow-measurement sites decreased by 31,000 and 27,000 acre-ft/yr for 1983-2004 compared with the 1961-82 period.

A Novel Assessment of Braking Reaction Time Following THA Using a New Fully Interactive Driving Simulator.

PubMed

Ruel, Allison V; Lee, Yuo-Yu; Boles, John; Boettner, Friedrich; Su, Edwin; Westrich, Geoffrey H

2015-07-01

After total hip replacement surgery, patients are eager to resume the activities of daily life, particularly driving. Most surgeons recommend waiting 6 weeks after surgery to resume driving; however, there is no evidence to indicate that patients cannot resume driving earlier. Our purpose was to evaluate when in the recovery period following THA that patients regain or improve upon their preoperative braking reaction time, allowing them to safely resume driving. We measured and compared pre- and postoperative braking reaction times of 90 patients from 3 different surgeons using a Fully Interactive Driving Simulator (Simulator Systems International, Tulsa, OK). We defined a return to safe braking reaction time as a return to a time value that is either equal to or less than the preoperative braking reaction time. Patients tested at 2 and 3 weeks after surgery had slower braking reaction times than preoperative times by an average of 0.069 and 0.009 s, respectively. At 4 weeks after surgery, however, patients improved their reaction times by 0.035 s (p = 0.0398). In addition, at 2, 3, and 4 weeks postoperatively, the results also demonstrated that patient less than 70 years of age recovered faster. Based upon the results of this study, most patients should be allowed to return to driving 4 weeks following minimally invasive primary total hip arthroplasty.

Random Matrix Theory Approach to Indonesia Energy Portfolio Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahardhika, Alifian; Purqon, Acep

2017-07-01

In a few years, Indonesia experienced difficulties in maintaining energy security, the problem is the decline in oil production from 1.6 million barrels per day to 861 thousand barrels per day in 2012. However, there is a difference condition in 2015 until the third week in 2016, world oil prices actually fell at the lowest price level since last 12 years. The decline in oil prices due to oversupply of oil by oil-producing countries of the world due to the instability of the world economy. Wave of layoffs in Indonesia is a response to the decline in oil prices, this led to the energy and mines portfolios Indonesia feared would not be more advantageous than the portfolio in other countries. In this research, portfolio analysis will be done on energy and mining in Indonesia by using stock price data of energy and mines in the period 26 November 2010 until April 1, 2016. It was found that the results have a wide effect of the market potential is high in the determination of the return on the portfolio energy and mines. Later, it was found that there are eight of the thirty stocks in the energy and mining portfolio of Indonesia which have a high probability of return relative to the average return of stocks in a portfolio of energy and mines.

A rationale for continuing mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma

PubMed Central

Ray, Kathryn J; Porco, Travis C; Hong, Kevin C; Lee, David C; Alemayehu, Wondu; Melese, Muluken; Lakew, Takele; Yi, Elizabeth; House, Jenafir; Chidambaram, Jaya D; Whitcher, John P; Gaynor, Bruce D; Lietman, Thomas M

2007-01-01

Background The World Health Organization recommends periodic mass antibiotic distributions to reduce the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma, the world's leading cause of infectious blindness. Their stated goal is to control infection, not to completely eliminate it. A single mass distribution can dramatically reduce the prevalence of infection. However, if infection is not eliminated in every individual in the community, it may gradually return back into the community, so often repeated treatments are necessary. Since public health groups are reluctant to distribute antibiotics indefinitely, we are still in need of a proven long-term rationale. Here we use mathematical models to demonstrate that repeated antibiotic distributions can eliminate infection in a reasonable time period. Methods We fit parameters of a stochastic epidemiological transmission model to data collected before and 6 months after a mass antibiotic distribution in a region of Ethiopia that is one of the most severely affected areas in the world. We validate the model by comparing our predicted results to Ethiopian data which was collected biannually for two years past the initial mass antibiotic distribution. We use the model to simulate the effect of different treatment programs in terms of local elimination of infection. Results Simulations show that the average prevalence of infection across all villages progressively decreases after each treatment, as long as the frequency and coverage of antibiotics are high enough. Infection can be eliminated in more villages with each round of treatment. However, in the communities where infection is not eliminated, it returns to the same average level, forming the same stationary distribution. This phenomenon is also seen in subsequent epidemiological data from Ethiopia. Simulations suggest that a biannual treatment plan implemented for 5 years will lead to elimination in 95% of all villages. Conclusion Local elimination from a community is theoretically possible, even in the most severely infected communities. However, elimination from larger areas may require repeated biannual treatments and prevention of re-introduction from outside to treated areas. PMID:17683646

A rationale for continuing mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma.

PubMed

Ray, Kathryn J; Porco, Travis C; Hong, Kevin C; Lee, David C; Alemayehu, Wondu; Melese, Muluken; Lakew, Takele; Yi, Elizabeth; House, Jenafir; Chidambaram, Jaya D; Whitcher, John P; Gaynor, Bruce D; Lietman, Thomas M

2007-08-07

The World Health Organization recommends periodic mass antibiotic distributions to reduce the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma, the world's leading cause of infectious blindness. Their stated goal is to control infection, not to completely eliminate it. A single mass distribution can dramatically reduce the prevalence of infection. However, if infection is not eliminated in every individual in the community, it may gradually return back into the community, so often repeated treatments are necessary. Since public health groups are reluctant to distribute antibiotics indefinitely, we are still in need of a proven long-term rationale. Here we use mathematical models to demonstrate that repeated antibiotic distributions can eliminate infection in a reasonable time period. We fit parameters of a stochastic epidemiological transmission model to data collected before and 6 months after a mass antibiotic distribution in a region of Ethiopia that is one of the most severely affected areas in the world. We validate the model by comparing our predicted results to Ethiopian data which was collected biannually for two years past the initial mass antibiotic distribution. We use the model to simulate the effect of different treatment programs in terms of local elimination of infection. Simulations show that the average prevalence of infection across all villages progressively decreases after each treatment, as long as the frequency and coverage of antibiotics are high enough. Infection can be eliminated in more villages with each round of treatment. However, in the communities where infection is not eliminated, it returns to the same average level, forming the same stationary distribution. This phenomenon is also seen in subsequent epidemiological data from Ethiopia. Simulations suggest that a biannual treatment plan implemented for 5 years will lead to elimination in 95% of all villages. Local elimination from a community is theoretically possible, even in the most severely infected communities. However, elimination from larger areas may require repeated biannual treatments and prevention of re-introduction from outside to treated areas.

Economies of, versus Returns to, Scale: A Clarification.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Christopher Ross

1988-01-01

Suggests that economics textbooks are often misleading in their discussions of the shape of the long-run average cost curve. Clarifies and amplifies the importance of the concept of return to scale and the concept of economies of scale. Identifies illustrations provided in textbooks as the greatest source of confusion. (KO)

Effects of Changes in Irrigation Practices and Aquifer Development on Groundwater Discharge to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuniansky, Eve L.; Rodriguez, Jose M.

2010-01-01

Since 1990, about 75 acres of black mangroves have died in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico. Although many factors can contribute to the mortality of mangroves, changes in irrigation practices, rainfall, and water use resulted in as much as 25 feet of drawdown in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer in the vicinity of the reserve between 1986 and 2002. To clarify the issue, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, conducted a study to ascertain how aquifer development and changes in irrigation practices have affected groundwater levels and groundwater flow to the Mar Negro area of the reserve. Changes in groundwater flow to the mangrove swamp and bay from 1986 to 2004 were estimated in this study by developing and calibrating a numerical groundwater flow model. The transient simulations indicate that prior to 1994, high irrigation return flows more than offset the effect of reduced groundwater withdrawals. In this case, the simulated discharge to the coast in the modeled area was 19 million gallons per day. From 1994 through 2004, furrow irrigation was completely replaced by micro-drip irrigation, thus eliminating return flows and the simulated average coastal discharge was 7 million gallons per day, a reduction of 63 percent. The simulated average groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the reserve from 1986 to 1993 was 2 million gallons per day, compared to an average simulated discharge of 0.2 million gallons per day from 1994 to 2004. The average annual rainfall for each of these periods was 38 inches. The groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve was estimated at about 0.5 million gallons per day for 2003-2004 because of higher than average annual rainfall during these 2 years. The groundwater flow model was used to test five alternatives for increasing groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps to approximately 1.4 million gallons per day: (1) artificially recharging the aquifer with injection wells or (2) by increasing irrigation return flow by going back to furrow irrigation; (3) termination of groundwater withdrawals near the mangroves; (4) reduction of groundwater withdrawals at irrigation wells by 50 percent; and (5) a combination of alternatives 2 and 4 increasing irrigation return flows and decreasing irrigation withdrawals. Each alternative assumed average climatic conditions and groundwater withdrawals at 2004 rates. Alternative 1 required 1.5 million gallons per day of injected water. Alternative 2 required flooding 958 acres with a rate of 1.84 million gallons per day if no crops are grown. Alternative 3 required the termination of 2.44 million gallons per day of withdrawals to achieve 1.34 million gallons per day of discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 4 did not achieve the objective with only 0.80 million gallons per day simulated discharge to the mangroves, while requiring a 1.26 million gallon per day reduction in groundwater withdrawals. Alternative 5 required flooding fields with additional 1.13 million gallons of day and the same reduction in groundwater withdrawals, but did achieve the objective of about 1.4 million gallons per day discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 1, incorporating injection wells near the reserve required the least amount of water to raise groundwater levels and maintain discharge of 1.4 million gallons per day through the mangroves.

Returning to School for Higher Returns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Seonyoung

2011-01-01

On the basis of those respondents in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) who change jobs with an intervening period of education reinvestment, the conventional assumption of linearity of log wages in years of schooling is strongly rejected: a typical reinvestment for the 1980 through 1993 period is associated with a rise of about 3.5…

Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the Coastal Plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The knowledge of the factors influencing water erosion is relevant to land management practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is very important among the factors affecting water erosion. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and return period for the Coa...

27 CFR 40.163 - Semimonthly tax return periods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... section 40.164, the periods to be covered by semimonthly tax returns shall be from the 1st day of each month through the 15th day of that month and from the 16th day of each month through the last day of that month. [T.D. ATF-365, 60 FR 33675, June 28, 1995] ...

26 CFR 31.6302-0T - Table of contents (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., the entries for § 31.6302-1(e) through (f)(3). (4) De minimis rule. (i) De minimis deposit rules for quarterly and annual return periods beginning or after January 1, 2001. (ii) De minimis deposit rule for quarterly return periods beginning on or after January 1, 2010. (iii) De minimis deposit rule for employers...

A combination SMS and transportation reimbursement intervention to improve HIV care following abnormal CD4 test results in rural Uganda: a prospective observational cohort study.

PubMed

Siedner, Mark J; Santorino, Data; Lankowski, Alexander J; Kanyesigye, Michael; Bwana, Mwebesa B; Haberer, Jessica E; Bangsberg, David R

2015-07-06

Up to 50 % of HIV-infected persons in sub-Saharan Africa are lost from care between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Structural barriers, including cost of transportation to clinic and poor communication systems, are major contributors. We conducted a prospective, pragmatic, before-and-after clinical trial to evaluate a combination mobile health and transportation reimbursement intervention to improve care at a publicly operated HIV clinic in Uganda. Patients undergoing CD4 count testing were enrolled, and clinicians selected a result threshold that would prompt early return for ART initiation or further care. Participants enrolled in the pre-intervention period (January - August 2012) served as a control group. Participants in the intervention period (September 2012 - November 2013) were randomized to receive daily short message service (SMS) messages for up to seven days in one of three formats: 1) messages reporting an abnormal result directly, 2) personal identification number-protected messages reporting an abnormal result, or 3) messages reading "ABCDEFG" to confidentially convey an abnormal result. Participants returning within seven days of their first message received transportation reimbursements (about $6USD). Our primary outcomes of interest were time to return to clinic and time to ART initiation. There were 45 participants in the pre-intervention period and 138 participants in the intervention period (46, 49, and 43 in the direct, PIN, and coded groups, respectively) with low CD4 count results. Median time to clinic return was 33 days (IQR 11-49) in the pre-intervention period and 6 days (IQR 3-16) in the intervention period (P < 0.001); and median time to ART initiation was 47 days (IQR 11-75) versus 12 days (IQR 5-19), (P < 0.001). In multivariable models, participants in the intervention period had earlier return to clinic (AHR 2.32, 95 %CI 1.53 to 3.51) and earlier time to ART initiation (AHR 2.27, 95 %CI 1.38 to 3.72). All three randomized message formats improved time to return to clinic and time to ART initiation (P < 0.01 for all comparisons versus the pre-intervention period). A combination of an SMS laboratory result communication system and transportation reimbursements significantly decreased time to clinic return and time to ART initiation after abnormal CD4 test results. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01579214 , approved 13 April 2012.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhi; Shu, Tengjia; Yin, Libo

2018-05-01

Inspired by Herskovic et al. (2016), we investigate the pricing effect of the firm-level common idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) in China's A-Share market. Return tests indicate that lower CIV risk loadings bring higher returns significantly, while the pricing function of market volatility (MV) is inconsistent. Strategy that goes long the highest CIV-beta quintile and short the lowest CIV-beta quintile brings an annualized average return of 5%-7%. Our findings supplement Herskovic et al. (2016) by confirming a significantly negative relationship between CIV and stock returns in a developing market.

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation for the Cuban building code update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, J.; Llanes-Buron, C.

2013-05-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed in response to a revision and update of the Cuban building code (NC-46-99) for earthquake-resistant building construction. The hazard assessment have been done according to the standard probabilistic approach (Cornell, 1968) and importing the procedures adopted by other nations dealing with the problem of revising and updating theirs national building codes. Problems of earthquake catalogue treatment, attenuation of peak and spectral ground acceleration, as well as seismic source definition have been rigorously analyzed and a logic-tree approach was used to represent the inevitable uncertainties encountered through the whole seismic hazard estimation process. The seismic zonation proposed here, is formed by a map where it is reflected the behaviour of the spectral acceleration values for short (0.2 seconds) and large (1.0 seconds) periods on rock conditions with a 1642 -year return period, which being considered as maximum credible earthquake (ASCE 07-05). In addition, other three design levels are proposed (severe earthquake: with a 808 -year return period, ordinary earthquake: with a 475 -year return period and minimum earthquake: with a 225 -year return period). The seismic zonation proposed here fulfils the international standards (IBC-ICC) as well as the world tendencies in this thematic.

[Variations of solar activity and radiation situation on board MIR station during the period 1986-1994].

PubMed

Bondarenko, V A; Mitrikas, V G; Tsetlin , V V

1995-01-01

This paper is dedicated to the analysis of the radiation situation onboard Mir station over a period of 1986-1994, there examined the main cosmophysics parameters and indices of the solar activity as well as the variations of the parameters of the earth's magnetic field and their association with the changes in the power of absorbed dose onboard the station. There noted the high levels of radiation exposure to the cosmonauts under terrestrial conditions when carrying out the roentgeno-radiologic examinations and procedures comparable or exceeding the absorbed doses during the flights. For revealing the regular associations of the radiation situation onboard the station with the parameters of solar activity there has been analyzed the time changes of average monthly values of dose power since the beginning of station functioning in 1986 until returning the fifteenth expedition to Earth. From the analyses of the results it might be assumed that the best statistical associations of average monthly power of the absorbed dose are found with the streams of protons of GCR. Wolff numbers and background stream of the radio emission of the Sun which reflects the existence of the radiation situation upon the phase of solar activity cycle. From this paper it transpires that calculating the dose loads during the period of the extreme phases of solar activity, it is possible to make between them the interpolations of time dependence by analogy with the dynamics in time of the background streams of GCR or Wolff numbers.

Life history of the striped newt at a north-central Florida breeding pond

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, S.A.

2002-01-01

I studied the life history of Striped Newts (Notophthalmus perstriatus) at a breeding pond in north-central Florida. Newts were captured in pitfall traps at a drift-fence as they migrated into and out of the pond basin. During the 2-year study, I recorded 10,290 captures (8,127 individuals) of newts at the drift-fence. Newts were active during each month of the study, but there were four peak activity periods, each of which included immigration and emigration events. Immigration events were almost exclusively comprised of adults, whereas emigration events were comprised of adults and recently transformed larvae. I documented 5,296 recently transformed, immature larvae (efts) and 435 recently transformed mature larvae (paedomorphs) during four distinct periods of emigration. Efts matured in the uplands before returning to the pond to breed. In the uplands, male efts (n = 16) grew 0.0183 mm/day on average, whereas average female (n = 24) growth was 0.0167 mm/day. Immigrating adults of both sexes were significantly smaller than emigrating adults. Emigrating efts were smallest, followed by emigrating paedomorphs, immigrating adults, then emigrating adults. The overall adult sex ratio was 1:1.25 (m:f). Sex ratio of emigrating paedomorphs was highly skewed towards females, with one male for every 4.43 females. Newts tended to move during wetter periods, and captures were significantly correlated with rainfall, but rainfall was a poor predictor of the magnitude of newt movements.

Statistical analysis of bankrupting and non-bankrupting stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qian; Wang, Fengzhong; Wei, Jianrong; Liang, Yuan; Huang, Jiping; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-04-01

The recent financial crisis has caused extensive world-wide economic damage, affecting in particular those who invested in companies that eventually filed for bankruptcy. A better understanding of stocks that become bankrupt would be helpful in reducing risk in future investments. Economists have conducted extensive research on this topic, and here we ask whether statistical physics concepts and approaches may offer insights into pre-bankruptcy stock behavior. To this end, we study all 20092 stocks listed in US stock markets for the 20-year period 1989-2008, including 4223 (21 percent) that became bankrupt during that period. We find that, surprisingly, the distributions of the daily returns of those stocks that become bankrupt differ significantly from those that do not. Moreover, these differences are consistent for the entire period studied. We further study the relation between the distribution of returns and the length of time until bankruptcy, and observe that larger differences of the distribution of returns correlate with shorter time periods preceding bankruptcy. This behavior suggests that sharper fluctuations in the stock price occur when the stock is closer to bankruptcy. We also analyze the cross-correlations between the return and the trading volume, and find that stocks approaching bankruptcy tend to have larger return-volume cross-correlations than stocks that are not. Furthermore, the difference increases as bankruptcy approaches. We conclude that before a firm becomes bankrupt its stock exhibits unusual behavior that is statistically quantifiable.

Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

2012-01-17

We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps.

Anesthesia and blood sampling of wild big brown bats (eptesicus fuscus) with an assessment of impacts on survival.

PubMed

Wimsatt, Jeffrey; O'Shea, Thomas J; Ellison, Laura E; Pearce, Roger D; Price, Valerie R

2005-01-01

We anesthetized and blood sampled wild big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado (USA) in 2001 and 2002 and assessed effects on survival. Inhalant anesthesia was delivered into a specially designed restraint and inhalation capsule that minimized handling and bite exposures. Bats were immobilized an average of 9.1+/-5.1 (SD) min (range 1-71, n=876); blood sample volumes averaged 58+/-12 microl (range 13-126, n=718). We randomly selected control (subject to multiple procedures before release) and treatment (control procedures plus inhalant anesthesia and 1% of body weight blood sampling) groups in 2002 to assess treatment effects on daily survival over a 14-day period for adult female and volant juvenile bats captured at maternity roosts in buildings. We monitored survival after release using passive integrated transponder tag detection hoops placed at openings to selected roosts. Annual return rates of bats sampled in 2001 were used to assess long-term outcomes. Comparison of 14-day maximum-likelihood daily survival estimates from control (86 adult females, 92 volant juveniles) and treated bats (187 adult females, 87 volant juveniles) indicated no adverse effect from anesthesia and blood sampling (juveniles: chi2=22.22, df=27, P>0.05; adults: chi2=9.72, df=18, P>0.05). One-year return rates were similar among adult female controls (81%, n=72, 95% confidence interval [CI]=70-91%), females treated once (82%, n=276, 95% CI=81-84%), and females treated twice (84%, n=50, 95% CI=74-94%). Lack of an effect was also noted in 1-yr return rates of juvenile female controls (55%, n=29, 95% CI=37-73%), juveniles treated once (66%, n=113, 95% CI=58-75%), and juveniles treated twice (71%, n=17, 95% CI=49-92%). These data suggest that anesthesia and blood sampling for health monitoring did not measurably affect survival of adult female and volant juvenile big brown bats.

Thoracolumbar spinal tuberculosis with psoas abscesses treated by one-stage posterior transforaminal lumbar debridement, interbody fusion, posterior instrumentation, and postural drainage.

PubMed

Pang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Xiongjie; Wu, Ping; Luo, Chenke; Xu, Zhengquan; Wang, Xiyang

2013-06-01

Retrospective analysis of the clinical efficacy and feasibility of patients with thoracolumbar spinal tuberculosis with psoas abscesses treated by one-stage posterior transforaminal lumbar debridement, interbody fusion, posterior instrumentation, and postural drainage. A total of 18 patients with thoracolumbar tuberculosis (TB), between February 2007 and February 2011, underwent one-stage posterior transforaminal lumbar debridement, interbody fusion, posterior instrumentation, and postural drainage. And the clinical efficacy was evaluated based on surgery duration time, the blood loss, the postural drainage of time, neurological status that was recorded by American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale, the fate of bone graft fusion, kyphosis angle, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and C-reactive protein (CRP), which were collected at certain time. The average follow-up period was 34 months (range 18-48 months). 18 patients suffered from seriously neurological deficits pre-operatively, of which 16 patients returned to normal at final follow-up. The surgery duration time was 197 ± 37.9 min, and the blood loss was 815 ± 348.5 ml. The postural drainage of time was 7.2 ± 2.7 days. The psoas abscesses disappeared in all cases, within the time range of 6-9 months (mean 7.4 ± 1.2 months). All patients of the grafted bones were thoroughly fused, with a fusion time ranging from 4 to 12 months (mean 7.8 months). Kyphosis angle was 44.32 ± 7.26° on average pre-operative and returned to 11.72 ± 2.85° at 6 weeks after operation; kyphosis angle was 13.10 ± 2.39° at final follow-up. The values of ESR and CRP were significant declined at 6 weeks post-operative, and returned to normal levels at final follow-up. With standardized anti-TB chemotherapy, thoracolumbar spinal tuberculosis with psoas abscesses could be effectively treated by one-stage posterior transforaminal lumbar debridement, interbody fusion, posterior instrumentation, and postural drainage.

26 CFR 1.6151-1 - Time and place for paying tax shown on returns.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the internal revenue officer with whom the return is filed at the time fixed for filing the return... later than the date fixed for filing the return. (c) Date fixed for payment of tax. In any case in which... within a certain period, any reference in subtitle A or F of the Code to the date fixed for payment of...

Stylized facts of intraday precious metals

PubMed Central

Batten, Jonathan; McGroarty, Frank; Peat, Maurice; Urquhart, Andrew

2017-01-01

This paper examines the stylized facts, correlation and interaction between volatility and returns at the 5-minute frequency for gold, silver, platinum and palladium from May 2000 to April 2015. We study the full sample period, as well as three subsamples to determine how high-frequency data of precious metals have developed over time. We find that over the full sample, the number of trades has increased substantially over time for each precious metal, while the bid-ask spread has narrowed over time, indicating an increase in liquidity and price efficiency. We also find strong evidence of periodicity in returns, volatility, volume and bid-ask spread. Returns and volume both experience strong intraday periodicity linked to the opening and closing of major markets around the world while the bid-ask spread is at its lowest when European markets are open. We also show a bilateral Granger causality between returns and volatility of each precious metal, which holds for the vast majority subsamples. PMID:28448492

Stylized facts of intraday precious metals.

PubMed

Batten, Jonathan; Lucey, Brian; McGroarty, Frank; Peat, Maurice; Urquhart, Andrew

2017-01-01

This paper examines the stylized facts, correlation and interaction between volatility and returns at the 5-minute frequency for gold, silver, platinum and palladium from May 2000 to April 2015. We study the full sample period, as well as three subsamples to determine how high-frequency data of precious metals have developed over time. We find that over the full sample, the number of trades has increased substantially over time for each precious metal, while the bid-ask spread has narrowed over time, indicating an increase in liquidity and price efficiency. We also find strong evidence of periodicity in returns, volatility, volume and bid-ask spread. Returns and volume both experience strong intraday periodicity linked to the opening and closing of major markets around the world while the bid-ask spread is at its lowest when European markets are open. We also show a bilateral Granger causality between returns and volatility of each precious metal, which holds for the vast majority subsamples.

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally associated with such return periods. Sensitivity results show that the impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with higher return periods. The average width of the uncertainty range and the size of the range for each catchment reveals that the uncertainties in low frequency events are greater than high frequency events. In addition, the uncertainty interval, estimated as the average width of the uncertainty range of flow for the five return periods, grows wider with a decrease in the runoff coefficient and wetness index of each catchment, both of which tend to increase the nonlinearity in the rainfall response. A key management question that emerges is the acceptability of residual risk where high exposure of vulnerable populations and/or critical infrastructure coincide with high costs of additional capacity in safety margins.

Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2010-06-01

A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US 779 500 and the average annual total loss was estimated as US 35 000. The annual probability of a person most at risk travelling in a bus, lorry, car, motorbike and train is less than 10-4/annum in all the time periods considered. The detailed estimation of direct and indirect risk will facilitate developing landslide risk mitigation and management strategies for transportation lines in the study area.

Maintaining Investment Success: The Importance of Asset Suballocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrell, Louis R.

1997-01-01

To meet demand for increased funding, in a period of probable declining investment returns, colleges and universities must fine-tune their asset suballocations to enhance returns. While the institution should adhere to major asset allocation classes, there can be much flexibility, and enhanced return, in shifting suballocations within the major…

The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

2013-01-01

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market

PubMed Central

Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners. PMID:26368537

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

PubMed

Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

26 CFR 301.6501(c)-1 - Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... assessment and collection. 301.6501(c)-1 Section 301.6501(c)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Limitations on Assessment and Collection § 301.6501(c)-1 Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection. (a) False return. In the case of a false or fraudulent return with intent to evade...

26 CFR 301.6501(c)-1 - Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... assessment and collection. 301.6501(c)-1 Section 301.6501(c)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Limitations on Assessment and Collection § 301.6501(c)-1 Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection. (a) False return. In the case of a false or fraudulent return with intent to evade...

26 CFR 301.6501(c)-1 - Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... assessment and collection. 301.6501(c)-1 Section 301.6501(c)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Limitations on Assessment and Collection § 301.6501(c)-1 Exceptions to general period of limitations on assessment and collection. (a) False return. In the case of a false or fraudulent return with intent to evade...

Skill Achievement and Returns in Developing Countries: Evidence from Adult Skills Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chua, Kenn

2017-01-01

Using novel adult skills surveys, this article analyses cross-country patterns in skill achievement and labour market returns, comparing the outcomes for a subset of developing countries with the results previously found for high-income economies. Apart from displaying lower average cognitive skills, developing countries also exhibit wider…

The Returns to Apprenticeship Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntosh, Steven

2005-01-01

This paper uses recent data from the UK Labour Force Survey to estimate the wage gains that individuals make on average if they complete an apprenticeship programme. The results suggest gains of around 5-7% for men, but no benefit for women. Further analysis extends the results by considering the returns by age group, by qualification obtained, by…

18 CFR 2.15 - Specified reasonable rate of return.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... average cost of long-term debt and preferred stock for the year, and the cost of common equity shall be... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Specified reasonable rate of return. 2.15 Section 2.15 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY...

The Discount Rate for Defense Decisionmaking: Some New Considerations,

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-11-01

the pre- corporate - income - tax cost of capital. Stockfisch calculates the pre-tax rate of return in several corporate sectors and takes a weighted average...economists assume 100 percent shifting of the corporate income tax , so if the corporate income tax is 50 percent, then the rate of return in the

Estimation of the return period of rockfall blocks according to their size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Biagi, Valerio; Lia Napoli, Maria; Barbero, Monica; Peila, Daniele

2017-01-01

With reference to the rockfall risk estimation and the planning of rockfall protection devices, one of the most critical and most discussed problems is the correct definition of the design block by taking into account its return period. In this paper, a methodology for the assessment of the design block linked with its return time is proposed and discussed, following a statistical approach. The procedure is based on the survey of the blocks that were already detached from the slope and had accumulated at the foot of the slope in addition to the available historical data.

Nonlinear modulation of an extraordinary wave under the conditions of parametric decay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorofeenko, V. G.; Krasovitskiy, V. B.; Turikov, V. A.

2012-06-15

A self-consistent set of Hamilton equations describing nonlinear saturation of the amplitude of oscillations excited under the conditions of parametric decay of an elliptically polarized extraordinary wave in cold plasma is solved analytically and numerically. It is shown that the exponential increase in the amplitude of the secondary wave excited at the half-frequency of the primary wave changes into a reverse process in which energy is returned to the primary wave and nonlinear oscillations propagating across the external magnetic field are generated. The system of 'slow' equations for the amplitudes, obtained by averaging the initial equations over the high-frequency period,more » is used to describe steady-state nonlinear oscillations in plasma.« less

Longer Nature-Based Rehabilitation May Contribute to a Faster Return to Work in Patients with Reactions to Severe Stress and/or Depression

PubMed Central

Grahn, Patrik; Pálsdóttir, Anna María; Ottosson, Johan; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H.

2017-01-01

The global burden of depression and stress-related mental disorders is substantial, and constitutes a major need for effective rehabilitation. Can nature-based rehabilitation help people return to work? Objective: To study if the length of a nature-based rehabilitation program affects the outcome with regard to return to work one year after the onset of the program, in a group of patients with long-term reactions to severe stress and/or depression. Methods: A prospective, quasi-experimental study comparing results from 8-, 12-, and 24-week periods of rehabilitation. The rehabilitation of 106 participants was carried out by a multimodal rehabilitation team in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. Return to work data were collected before the intervention and one year after the start of rehabilitation. In addition, data were collected regarding self-assessed occupational competence, personal control, and sense of coherence. As many as 68% of the participants returned to work or participated in job training or work-oriented measures, full- or part-time, after one year. Participants with a longer period of rehabilitation reported better results on occupational competence, and were more likely to participate in paid work, full-time or part-time, one year after rehabilitation. Study outcomes indicate that a longer rehabilitation period in a rehabilitation garden increases the possibility of a return to paid work. PMID:29076997

Longer Nature-Based Rehabilitation May Contribute to a Faster Return to Work in Patients with Reactions to Severe Stress and/or Depression.

PubMed

Grahn, Patrik; Pálsdóttir, Anna María; Ottosson, Johan; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H

2017-10-27

The global burden of depression and stress-related mental disorders is substantial, and constitutes a major need for effective rehabilitation. Can nature-based rehabilitation help people return to work? To study if the length of a nature-based rehabilitation program affects the outcome with regard to return to work one year after the onset of the program, in a group of patients with long-term reactions to severe stress and/or depression. A prospective, quasi-experimental study comparing results from 8-, 12-, and 24-week periods of rehabilitation. The rehabilitation of 106 participants was carried out by a multimodal rehabilitation team in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. Return to work data were collected before the intervention and one year after the start of rehabilitation. In addition, data were collected regarding self-assessed occupational competence, personal control, and sense of coherence. As many as 68% of the participants returned to work or participated in job training or work-oriented measures, full- or part-time, after one year. Participants with a longer period of rehabilitation reported better results on occupational competence, and were more likely to participate in paid work, full-time or part-time, one year after rehabilitation. Study outcomes indicate that a longer rehabilitation period in a rehabilitation garden increases the possibility of a return to paid work.

Future changes to drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairie Provinces based on NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-04-01

This study assesses projected changes to drought characteristics in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the prairie provinces of Canada, using a multi-regional climate model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II for the 1981-2003 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models for the 1970-1999 and 2041-2070 periods (i.e. eleven current and the same number of corresponding future period simulations). Drought characteristics are extracted using two drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Regional frequency analysis is used to project changes to selected 20- and 50-year regional return levels of drought characteristics for fifteen homogeneous regions, covering the study area. In addition, multivariate analyses of drought characteristics, derived on the basis of 6-month SPI and SPEI values, are developed using the copula approach for each region. Analysis of multi-RCM ensemble-averaged projected changes to mean and selected return levels of drought characteristics show increases over the southern and south-western parts of the study area. Based on bi- and trivariate joint occurrence probabilities of drought characteristics, the southern regions along with the central regions are found highly drought vulnerable, followed by the southwestern and southeastern regions. Compared to the SPI-based analysis, the results based on SPEI suggest drier conditions over many regions in the future, indicating potential effects of rising temperatures on drought risks. These projections will be useful in the development of appropriate adaptation strategies for the water and agricultural sectors, which play an important role in the economy of the study area.

Weather based risks and insurances for agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne

2015-04-01

Extreme weather events such as frost, drought, heat waves and rain storms can have devastating effects on cropping systems. According to both the agriculture and finance sectors, a risk assessment of extreme weather events and their impact on cropping systems is needed. The principle of return periods or frequencies of natural hazards is adopted in many countries as the basis of eligibility for the compensation of associated losses. For adequate risk management and eligibility, hazard maps for events with a 20-year return period are often used. Damages due to extreme events are strongly dependent on crop type, crop stage, soil type and soil conditions. The impact of extreme weather events particularly during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar therefore requires a modelling approach to capture the mixture of non-linear interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event in the farming calendar. Physically based crop models such as REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) assist in understanding the links between different factors causing crop damage. Subsequent examination of the frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and soil moisture stress in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages allows for risk profiles to be confronted with yields, yield losses and insurance claims. The methodology is demonstrated for arable food crops, bio-energy crops and fruit. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by limited aid received for agricultural damage, an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers and projected intensification of weather extremes with climate change. Though average yields have risen continuously due to technological advances, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to adverse weather events has improved. The research is funded by the Belgian Science Policy Organisation (Belspo) under contract nr SD/RI/03A.

Empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Pablo; Luís Zêzere, José; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

2017-04-01

Rainfall-triggered landslides are common and widespread phenomena in Asturias, a mountainous region in the NW of Spain where the climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature values of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Different types of landslides (slides, flows and rockfalls) frequently occur during intense rainfall events, causing every year great economic losses and sometimes human injuries or fatalities. For this reason, its temporal forecast is of great interest. The main goal of the present research is the calculation of empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Asturian region, following the methodology described by Zêzere et al., 2015. For this purpose, data from 559 individual landslides collected from press archives during a period of eight hydrological years (October 2008-September 2016) and gathered within the BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) were used. Precipitation data series of 37 years came from 6 weather stations representative of the main geographical and climatic conditions within the study area. Applied methodology includes: (i) the definition of landslide events, (ii) the reconstruction of the cumulative antecedent rainfall for each event from 1 to 90 consecutive days, (iii) the estimation of the return period for each cumulated rainfall-duration condition using Gumbel probability distribution, (iv) the definition of the critical cumulated rainfall-duration conditions taking into account the highest return period, (v) the calculation of the thresholds considering both the conditions for the occurrence and non-occurrence of landslides. References: Zêzere, J.L., Vaz, T., Pereira, S., Oliveira, S.C., Marqués, R., García, R.A.C. 2015. Rainfall thresholds for landslide activity in Portugal: a state of the art. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73, 2917-2936. doi: 10.1007/s12665-014-3672-0

Simulated water sources and effects of pumping on surface and ground water, Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; Whealan, Ann T.

2005-01-01

The sandy sediments underlying Cape Cod, Massachusetts, compose an important aquifer that is the sole source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and urbanization on Cape Cod lead to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to water supply: (1) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer and (2) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive surface waters, such as ponds and streams. These considerations are particularly important on the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, which underlie the largest and most populous areas on Cape Cod. Numerical models of the two flow lenses were developed to simulate ground-water-flow conditions in the aquifer and to (1) delineate areas at the water table contributing water to wells and (2) estimate the effects of pumping and natural changes in recharge on surface waters. About 350 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the aquifer at the water table in this area; most water (about 65 percent) discharges at the coast and most of the remaining water (about 28 percent) discharges into streams. A total of about 24.9 Mgal/d, or about 7 percent, of water in the aquifer is withdrawn for water supply; most pumped water is returned to the hydrologic system as return flow creating a state of near mass balance in the aquifer. Areas at the water table that contribute water directly to production wells total about 17 square miles; some water (about 10 percent) pumped from the wells flows through ponds prior to reaching the wells. Current (2003) steady-state pumping reduces simulated ground-water levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; projected (2020) pumping may reduce water levels by an additional 3 feet or more in these same areas. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping reduces total streamflow by about 4 and 9 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), corresponding to about 5 percent and 9 percent, respectively, of total streamflow. Natural recharge varies with time, over both monthly and multiyear time scales. Monthly changes in recharge cause pond levels to vary between 1 and 2 feet in an average year; annual changes in recharge, which can be much larger than monthly variations, can cause pond levels to vary by more than 10 feet in some areas over a period of years. Streamflow, which also changes in response to changes in recharge, varies by a factor of two over an average year and can vary more over multiyear periods. On average, monthly pumping ranges from 15.8 Mgal/d in March to 45.3 Mgal/d in August. Pumping and the distribution of return flow can seasonally affect the hydrologic system by lowering ground-water and pond levels and by depleting streamflows, particularly in the summer months. Maximum drawdowns in March and August exceed 3 feet and 6 feet, respectively, for current (2003) pumping. Simulated drawdowns from projected (2020) pumping, relative to water levels representing 2003 pumping conditions, exceed 2 feet in March and 5 feet in August. Current (2003) and future (2020) pumping can decrease pond levels in some areas by more than 3 feet; drawdown generally is largest during the month of August of an average year. Over multiyear periods, seasonal pumping can lower pond levels in some areas by more than 4 feet; the effects of seasonal pumping are largest during periods of reduced recharge. Monthly streamflow depletion varies in individual streams but can exceed 2 ft3/s in some streams. The combined effects of seasonal pumping and drought can reduce pond levels by more than 10 feet below average levels. Water levels in Mary Dunn Pond, which is in an area of large current and projected pumping, are predicted (2020) to decline during drought conditions by about 10.6 feet: about 6.9 feet from lower recharge, about 2.3 feet from current (2003) pumping, and about 1.4 feet from additional future (2020) pumping. The results indicate that pumping generally does not cause substantial

Deriving simple and adjusted financial rates of return on Mississippi timber lands by combining forest inventory and analysis and Timber Mart-South data

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hartsell

2007-01-01

This study compares returns on investments in Mississippi timber lands with returns on alternative investments. The real annual rates of return from mature, undisturbed timber lands in Mississippi over a 17-year period (1977-94) were computed. Southern Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) timber volume data and Timber Mart-South (TMS) data on timber...

Facilitating Successful Re-Entries in the United States: Training and Development for Women Returners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greer, Tomika W.

2013-01-01

Women returners are women who leave the paid workforce for a period of time following the birth of their child(ren) and subsequently seek to return to paid employment. As women returners attempt to re-enter the workforce, many of them are in need of updating their skills or re-training in a new set of skills. In this study, the training and…

Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

2017-01-01

This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

PubMed

Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

2017-01-01

This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

The value of information in a multi-agent market model. The luck of the uninformed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tóth, B.; Scalas, E.; Huber, J.; Kirchler, M.

2007-01-01

We present an experimental and simulated model of a multi-agent stock market driven by a double auction order matching mechanism. Studying the effect of cumulative information on the performance of traders, we find a non monotonic relationship of net returns of traders as a function of information levels, both in the experiments and in the simulations. Particularly, averagely informed traders perform worse than the non informed and only traders with high levels of information (insiders) are able to beat the market. The simulations and the experiments reproduce many stylized facts of tick-by-tick stock-exchange data, such as fast decay of autocorrelation of returns, volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns. These results have an important message for everyday life. They can give a possible explanation why, on average, professional fund managers perform worse than the market index.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Effect of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity variability on shallow landslide triggering return period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

2016-04-01

Assessment of shallow landslide hazard is important for appropriate planning of mitigation measures. Generally, return period of slope instability is assumed as a quantitative metric to map landslide triggering hazard on a catchment. The most commonly applied approach to estimate such return period consists in coupling a physically-based landslide triggering model (hydrological and slope stability) with rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Among the drawbacks of such an approach, the following assumptions may be mentioned: (1) prefixed initial conditions, with no regard to their probability of occurrence, and (2) constant intensity-hyetographs. In our work we propose the use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to investigate the effects of the two above mentioned assumptions. The approach is based on coupling a physically based hydrological and slope stability model with a stochastic rainfall time series generator. By this methodology a long series of synthetic rainfall data can be generated and given as input to a landslide triggering physically based model, in order to compute the return period of landslide triggering as the mean inter-arrival time of a factor of safety less than one. In particular, we couple the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for hourly rainfall generation and the TRIGRS v.2 unsaturated model for the computation of transient response to individual rainfall events. Initial conditions are computed by a water table recession model that links initial conditions at a given event to the final response at the preceding event, thus taking into account variable inter-arrival time between storms. One-thousand years of synthetic hourly rainfall are generated to estimate return periods up to 100 years. Applications are first carried out to map landslide triggering hazard in the Loco catchment, located in highly landslide-prone area of the Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy. Then a set of additional simulations are performed in order to compare the results obtained by the traditional IDF-based method with the Monte Carlo ones. Results indicate that both variability of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity significantly affect return period estimation. In particular, the common assumption of an initial water table depth at the base of the pervious strata may lead in practice to an overestimation of return period up to one order of magnitude, while the assumption of constant-intensity hyetographs may yield an overestimation by a factor of two or three. Hence, it may be concluded that the analysed simplifications involved in the traditional IDF-based approach generally imply a non-conservative assessment of landslide triggering hazard.

Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

2018-04-01

An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

Oxygen delivery during cardiopulmonary bypass (and renal outcome) using two systems of extracorporeal circulation: a retrospective review.

PubMed

Bennett, Mark J; Rajakaruna, Cha; Bazerbashi, Samer; Webb, Gerry; Gomez-Cano, Mayam; Lloyd, Clinton

2013-06-01

To investigate the combined influence of blood flow and haemodilution with either a miniaturized (Mini-CPB) or a conventional cardiopulmonary bypass (C-CPB) circuit on average oxygen delivery during bypass. The influence of this on clinical outcome, particularly renal dysfunction after routine coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG), was measured. Retrospective analysis in two groups of 160 patients based on the surgeon's preference for bypass circuit. We compared consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery by two surgeons using Mini-CPB with a matched cohort of patients, from the same period, undergoing isolated CABG surgery by four other surgeons using a C-CPB. No trial-related intervention occurred. Data on bypass circuit parameters and clinical outcomes were acquired from routinely collected data sources. Average cardiopulmonary bypass pump flow was significantly lower with Mini-CPB compared with C-CPB. Mini-CPB resulted in significantly less haemodilution. The resultant calculated average oxygen delivery provided by the two systems was the same. Percentage change in plasma creatinine was significantly and inversely related to the oxygen delivery during CPB. There was no difference in percentage change in plasma creatinine between groups. The risk of having Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) score ≥ 1 increased 1% for every 1 ml min(-1) m(-2) decrease in oxygen delivery (P = 0.0001, OR 0.990, 95% CI 0.984-0.995). Despite aiming for the same target pump flow, periodic limitations of venous return to the pump resulted in a significant reduction in average flow delivered to the patient by Mini-CPB. Less haemodilution compensated for this reduction, so that the average oxygen delivery was the same. The association between oxygen delivery and postoperative change in plasma creatinine was evident in both groups. Further work to understand whether there is a particular cohort of patients who benefit (or are put at risk) by one method of CPB vs the other is warranted.

Storm surges and coastal impacts at Mar del Plata, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Mónica M. E.; D'Onofrio, Enrique E.; Pousa, Jorge L.; Schnack, Enrique J.; Bértola, Germán R.

2009-07-01

Positive storm surges (PSS) lasting for several days can raise the water level producing significant differences between the observed level and the astronomical tide. These storm events can be more severe if they coincide with a high tide or if they bracket several tidal cycles, particularly in the case of the highest astronomical tide. Besides, the abnormal sea-level elevation near the coast can cause the highest waves generated to attack the upper beach. This combination of factors can produce severe erosion, threatening sectors located along the coastline. These effects would be more serious if the storm surge height and duration increase as a result of a climatic change. The Mar del Plata (Argentina) coastline and adjacent areas are exposed to such effects. A statistical characterization of PSS based on their intensity, duration and frequency, including a surge event classification, was performed utilizing tide-gauge records over the period 1956-2005. A storm erosion potential index (SEPI) was calculated from observed levels based on hourly water level measurements. The index was related to beach profile responses to storm events. Also, a return period for extreme SEPI values was calculated. Results show an increase in the average number of positive storm surge events per decade. Considering all the events, the last decade (1996-2005) exhibits an average 7% increase compared to each one of the previous decades. A similar behavior was found for the decadal average of the heights of maximum annual positive storm surges. In this case the average height of the last two decades exceeds that of the previous decades by approximately 8 cm. The decadal average of maximum annual duration of these meteorological events shows an increase of 2 h in the last three decades. A possible explanation of the changes in frequency, height and duration of positive storm surges at Mar del Plata would seem to lie in the relative mean sea-level rise.

Mini-open repair of achilles rupture in the national football league.

PubMed

McCullough, Kirk A; Shaw, Christopher M; Anderson, Robert B

2014-01-01

Tears of the Achilles tendon in professional athletes are an infrequent yet devastating injury. Historical studies have demonstrated not only a poor rate of return to competitive play but have also noted significant declines in performance for those able to return. While classic treatment of these injuries in the competitive athlete has been an open, locked suture repair, this article reports on a consecutive series of professional football athletes who underwent mini-open repair. All athletes returned to professional football, with seven out of nine (78%) returning to National Football League (NFL) competition. Average return to play was 273 days (8.9 months), with one athlete returning at 166 days (5.4 months). There have been no reruptures and no sural nerve or wound healing complications. Although limited in number currently, mini-open repair in NFL athletes has allowed successful return to competitive play with no reruptures and a trend toward faster return to play compared with historical open repair outcomes.

Changing Returns to Education in Spain During the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vila, Luis-Eduardo; Mora, Jose-Gines

1998-01-01

Presents evidence on returns to education for Spanish employees during the 1980s, a period of remarkable structural transformation. Results show a declining payoff to education between 1981 and 1991 for lower and intermediate educational levels. Higher education does not show a reduction in return. Earnings inequality by gender declined noticeably…

An economic analysis comparison of stationary and dual-axis tracking grid-connected photovoltaic systems in the US Upper Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Wongyu; Pate, Michael B.; Warren, Ryan D.; Nelson, Ron M.

2018-05-01

This paper presents an economic analysis of stationary and dual-axis tracking photovoltaic (PV) systems installed in the US Upper Midwest in terms of life-cycle costs, payback period, internal rate of return, and the incremental cost of solar energy. The first-year performance and energy savings were experimentally found along with documented initial cost. Future PV performance, savings, and operating and maintenance costs were estimated over 25-year assumed life. Under the given assumptions and discount rates, the life-cycle savings were found to be negative. Neither system was found to have payback periods less than the assumed system life. The lifetime average incremental costs of energy generated by the stationary and dual-axis tracking systems were estimated to be 0.31 and 0.37 per kWh generated, respectively. Economic analyses of different scenarios, each having a unique set of assumptions for costs and metering, showed a potential for economic feasibility under certain conditions when compared to alternative investments with assumed yields.

High-frequency stock linkage and multi-dimensional stationary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xi; Bao, Si; Chen, Jingchao

2017-02-01

In recent years, China's stock market has experienced dramatic fluctuations; in particular, in the second half of 2014 and 2015, the market rose sharply and fell quickly. Many classical financial phenomena, such as stock plate linkage, appeared repeatedly during this period. In general, these phenomena have usually been studied using daily-level data or minute-level data. Our paper focuses on the linkage phenomenon in Chinese stock 5-second-level data during this extremely volatile period. The method used to select the linkage points and the arbitrage strategy are both based on multi-dimensional stationary processes. A new program method for testing the multi-dimensional stationary process is proposed in our paper, and the detailed program is presented in the paper's appendix. Because of the existence of the stationary process, the strategy's logarithmic cumulative average return will converge under the condition of the strong ergodic theorem, and this ensures the effectiveness of the stocks' linkage points and the more stable statistical arbitrage strategy.

27 CFR 41.113 - Return periods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... provided by § 41.114, the periods to be covered in the semimonthly tax returns shall be from the 1st day through the 15th day of each month, and from the 16th day through the last day of each month. [T.D. ATF-365, 60 FR 33675, June 28, 1995. Redesignated and amended by T.D. TTB-16, 69 FR 52424, 52425, Aug. 26...

Variety of Behavior of Equity Returns in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonanno, Giovanni; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2001-03-01

The price dynamics of a set of equities traded in an efficient market is pretty complex. It consists of almost not redundant time series which have (i) long-range correlated volatility and (ii) cross-correlation between each pair of equities. We perform a study of the statistical properties of an ensemble of equities returns which is fruitful to elucidate the nature and role of time and ensemble correlation. Specifically, we investigate a statistical ensemble of daily returns of n equities traded in United States financial markets. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution. We find that a typical ensemble return distribution exists in most of the trading days [1] with the exception of crash and rally days and of the days following to these extreme events [2]. We analyze each ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. We call the second moment of the ensemble return distribution the variety of the market. We choose this term because high variety implies a variated behavior of the equities returns in the considered day. We observe that the mean return and the variety are fluctuating in time and are stochastic processes themselves. The variety is a long-range correlated stochastic process. Customary time-averaged statistical properties of time series of stock returns are also considered. In general, time-averaged and portfolio-averaged returns have different statistical properties [1]. We infer from these differences information about the relative strength of correlation between equities and between different trading days. We also compare our empirical results with those predicted by the single-index model and we conclude that this simple model is unable to explain the statistical properties of the second moment of the ensemble return distribution. Correlation between pairs of equities are continuously present in the dynamics of a stock portfolio. Hence, it is relevant to investigate pair correlation in a efficient and original way. We propose to investigate these correlations at a daily and intra daily time horizon with a method based on concepts of random frustrated systems. Specifically, a hierarchical organization of the investigated equities is obtained by determining a metric distance between stocks and by investigating the properties of the subdominant ultrametric associated with it [3]. The high-frequency cross-correlation existing between pairs of equities are investigated in a set of 100 stocks traded in US equity markets. The decrease of the cross-correlation between the equity returns observed for diminishing time horizons progressively changes the nature of the hierarchical structure associated to each different time horizon [4]. The nature of the correlation present between pairs of time series of equity returns collected in a portfolio has a strong influence on the variety of the market. We finally discuss the relation between pair correlation and variety of an ensemble return distribution. References [1] Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna, Variety and volatility in financial markets, Phys. Rev. E 62, 6126-6134 (2000). [2] Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna, Symmetry alteration of ensemble return distribution in crash and rally days of financial market, Eur. Phys. J. B 15, 603-606 (2000). [3] Rosario N. Mantegna, Hierarchical structure in financial markets, Eur. Phys. J. B 11, 193-197 (1999). [4] Giovanni Bonanno, Fabrizio Lillo, and Rosario N. Mantegna, High-frequency cross-correlation in a set of stocks, Quantitative Finance (in press).

Treatment of partial ulnar collateral ligament tears in the elbow with platelet-rich plasma.

PubMed

Podesta, Luga; Crow, Scott A; Volkmer, Dustin; Bert, Timothy; Yocum, Lewis A

2013-07-01

Studies have demonstrated the potential of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) to heal damaged tissue. To date, there are no published reports of clinical outcomes of partial ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) tears of the elbow treated with PRP. Platelet-rich plasma will promote the healing of partial UCL tears and allow a return to play. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Thirty-four athletes with a partial-thickness UCL tear confirmed on magnetic resonance imaging were prospectively followed. All patients had failed at least 2 months of nonoperative treatment and an attempt to return to play. Baseline questionnaires, including the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic Shoulder and Elbow (KJOC) and Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) measures, were completed by each patient before injection. Baseline ultrasound measurement of the humeral-ulnar joint space was assessed with 10 lb of valgus stress on the elbow. Each patient received a single type 1A PRP injection at the UCL under ultrasound guidance. The same treating physician at a single institution performed all injections with the same PRP preparation used. Patients completed a course of guided physical therapy and were allowed to return to play based on their symptoms and physical examination findings. Outcome scores, including KJOC and DASH scores, were collected after return to play and were compared with baseline scores. Ultrasound measurements were collected at final follow-up and compared with preinjection values. At an average follow-up of 70 weeks (range, 11-117 weeks), 30 of 34 athletes (88%) had returned to the same level of play without any complaints. The average time to return to play was 12 weeks (range, 10-15 weeks). The average KJOC score improved from 46 to 93 (P < .0001). The average DASH score improved from 21 to 1 (P < .0001). The sports module of the DASH questionnaire improved from 69 to 3 (P < .0001). Medial elbow joint space opening with valgus stress decreased from 28 to 20 mm at final follow-up (P < .0001). The difference in medial elbow joint space opening (stressed vs nonstressed) decreased from 7 to 2.5 mm at final follow-up (P < .0001). One player had persistent UCL insufficiency and underwent ligament reconstruction at 31 weeks after injection. The results of this study indicate that PRP is an effective option to successfully treat partial UCL tears of the elbow in athletes.

7 CFR 1400.501 - Determination of average adjusted gross income.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... applicable tax year unless a certified statement is provided by a certified public accountant or attorney...) For a person filing a separate tax return, the amount reported as “adjusted gross income” on the final federal income tax return for the person for the applicable tax year; (2) For a person filing a joint tax...

Can Professional Environments in Schools Promote Teacher Development? Explaining Heterogeneity in Returns to Teaching Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraft, Matthew A.; Papay, John P.

2014-01-01

Although wide variation in teacher effectiveness is well established, much less is known about differences in teacher improvement over time. We document that average returns to teaching experience mask large variation across individual teachers and across groups of teachers working in different schools. We examine the role of school context in…

Lower Costs, Higher Returns: UNCF HBCUs in a High-Priced College Environment. Financing African American College Aspirations Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richards, David A. R.

2014-01-01

While research consistently shows the earning power of college degrees, those returns are best weighed against the cost of attending post-secondary institutions, historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) included. This study is an update of "Affordability of UNCF-Member Institutions" (2009), and compares the average costs at…

A Comparison Study of Return Ratio-Based Academic Enrollment Forecasting Models. Professional File. Article 129, Spring 2013

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zan, Xinxing Anna; Yoon, Sang Won; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Srihari, Krishnaswami

2013-01-01

In an effort to develop a low-cost and user-friendly forecasting model to minimize forecasting error, we have applied average and exponentially weighted return ratios to project undergraduate student enrollment. We tested the proposed forecasting models with different sets of historical enrollment data, such as university-, school-, and…

Juvenile Chinook Salmon abundance in the northern Bering Sea: Implications for future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James M.; Howard, Kathrine G.; Gann, Jeanette C.; Cieciel, Kristin C.; Templin, William D.; Guthrie, Charles M.

2017-01-01

Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance in the northern Bering Sea is used to provide insight into future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River. The status of Yukon River Chinook Salmon is of concern due to recent production declines and subsequent closures of commercial, sport, and personal use fisheries, and severe restrictions on subsistence fisheries in the Yukon River. Surface trawl catch data, mixed layer depth adjustments, and genetic stock mixtures are used to estimate juvenile abundance for the Canadian-origin stock group from the Yukon River. Abundance ranged from a low of 0.62 million in 2012 to a high of 2.58 million in 2013 with an overall average of 1.5 million from 2003 to 2015. Although abundance estimates indicate that average survival is relatively low (average of 5.2%), juvenile abundance was significantly correlated (r=0.87, p=0.005) with adult returns, indicating that much of the variability in survival occurs during early life-history stages (freshwater and initial marine). Juvenile abundance in the northern Bering Sea has increased since 2013 due to an increase in early life-history survival (average juveniles-per-spawner increased from 29 to 59). The increase in juvenile abundance is projected to produce larger runs and increased subsistence fishing opportunities for Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River as early as 2016.

The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

2012-09-01

This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, Peter

2017-10-01

An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS, DEFINED BENEFIT PLANS, AND THE ACCUMULATION OF RETIREMENT WEALTH

PubMed Central

Poterba, James; Rauh, Joshua; Venti, Steven; Wise, David

2010-01-01

The private pension structure in the United States, once dominated by defined benefit (DB) plans, is currently divided between defined contribution (DC) and DB plans. Wealth accumulation in DC plans depends on the participant's contribution behavior and on financial market returns, while accumulation in DB plans is sensitive to a participant's labor market experience and to plan parameters. This paper simulates the distribution of retirement wealth under representative DB and DC plans. It uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to explore how asset returns, earnings histories, and retirement plan characteristics contribute to the variation in retirement wealth outcomes. We simulate DC plan accumulation by randomly assigning individuals a share of wages that they and their employer contribute to the plan. We consider several possible asset allocation strategies, with asset returns drawn from the historical return distribution. Our DB plan simulations draw earnings histories from the HRS, and randomly assign each individual a pension plan drawn from a sample of large private and public defined benefit plans. The simulations yield distributions of both DC and DB wealth at retirement. Average retirement wealth accruals under current DC plans exceed average accruals under private sector DB plans, although DC plans are also more likely to generate very low retirement wealth outcomes. The comparison of current DC plans with more generous public sector DB plans is less definitive, because public sector DB plans are more generous on average than their private sector counterparts. PMID:21057597

Working after a stroke: survivors' experiences and perceptions of barriers to and facilitators of the return to paid employment.

PubMed

Alaszewski, Andy; Alaszewski, Helen; Potter, Jonathan; Penhale, Bridget

2007-12-30

This paper examines respondents' relationship with work following a stroke and explores their experiences including the perceived barriers to and facilitators of a return to employment. Our qualitative study explored the experiences and recovery of 43 individuals under 60 years who had survived a stroke. Participants, who had experienced a first stroke less than three months before and who could engage in in-depth interviews, were recruited through three stroke services in South East England. Each participant was invited to take part in four interviews over an 18-month period and to complete a diary for one week each month during this period. At the time of their stroke a minority of our sample (12, 28% of the original sample) were not actively involved in the labour market and did not return to the work during the period that they were involved in the study. Of the 31 participants working at the time of the stroke, 13 had not returned to work during the period that they were involved in the study, six returned to work after three months and nine returned in under three months and in some cases virtually immediately after their stroke. The participants in our study all valued work and felt that working, especially in paid employment, was more desirable than not working. The participants who were not working at the time of their stroke or who had not returned to work during the period of the study also endorsed these views. However they felt that there were a variety of barriers and practical problems that prevented them working and in some cases had adjusted to a life without paid employment. Participants' relationship with work was influenced by barriers and facilitators. The positive valuations of work were modified by the specific context of stroke, for some participants work was a cause of stress and therefore potentially risky, for others it was a way of demonstrating recovery from stroke. The value and meaning varied between participants and this variation was related to past experience and biography. Participants who wanted to work indicated that their ability to work was influenced by the nature and extent of their residual disabilities. A small group of participants had such severe residual disabilities that managing everyday life was a challenge and that working was not a realistic prospect unless their situation changed radically. The remaining participants all reported residual disabilities. The extent to which these disabilities formed a barrier to work depended on an additional range of factors that acted as either barriers or facilitator to return to work. A flexible working environment and supportive social networks were cited as facilitators of return to paid employment. Participants in our study viewed return to work as an important indicator of recovery following a stroke. Individuals who had not returned to work felt that paid employment was desirable but they could not overcome the barriers. Individuals who returned to work recognized the barriers but had found ways of managing them.

Performance of a Surface Barrier for Waste Isolation and Flux Reduction at the Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Z. F.; Wellman, Dawn M.; Morse, John G.

2016-05-13

Based on the knowledge gained from a decade of laboratory, field, and numerical studies, the Prototype Hanford Barrier (PHB) was designed and constructed between late 1993 and late 1994 over the 216-B-57 Crib in the 200-BP-1 Operable Unit at the Hanford Site. The PHB has been monitored since 1994 to evaluate the physical, hydrologic, and ecological performance. Two stress tests were carried out in the past: (1) an enhanced (about 3 times the multi-year average of 160 mm/year) precipitation test from water year (WY) 1995 to WY1997, which included a man-made 1000-year return 24-hour rainstorms in March each year, andmore » (2) a controlled fire test in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present the main findings of the PHB demonstration since 1994. From 1994 to present, the PHB has limited drainage of less than 0.2 mm yr-1, which is below the 0.5 mm yr-1 design goal, and minimized erosion. The observations suggest the PHB is robust enough to endure the hydrological stress of three times average precipitation and 1000-year return 24-hour rainstorms. After the controlled fire, far less vegetation grows and grasses are the dominant vegetation (compared to shrubs on the unburned section). Even so, the grasses can remove nearly all the stored water in the burned section, although during a longer period of time than in the unburned section. The findings at the PHB are useful for the design and monitoring of future surface barriers at Hanford and elsewhere.« less

Return to Play After Revision Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Players

PubMed Central

Okoroha, Kelechi R.; Kadri, Omar; Keller, Robert A.; Marshall, Nathan; Cizmic, Zlatan; Moutzouros, Vasilios

2017-01-01

Background: National Football League (NFL) players who undergo anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction have been shown to have a lower return to play (RTP) than previously expected. However, RTP in the NFL after revision ACL reconstruction (RACLR) is not well defined. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study is to determine the RTP of NFL players after RACLR and evaluate factors that predict RTP. Our hypothesis was that more experienced and established players would be more likely to RTP after RACLR. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 24 NFL players who underwent RACLR between 2007 and 2014 were reviewed and evaluated. Return to NFL play, time to return, seasons and games played prior to and after revision surgery, draft status, and demographic data were collected. Overall RTP was determined, and players who did RTP were compared with those unable to RTP. Data were also compared with control players matched for age, position, size, and experience. Results: After RACLR, 79% (19/24) of NFL players returned to NFL regular-season play at an average of 12.6 months. All players who were drafted in the first 4 rounds, played in at least 55 games, or played 4 seasons of NFL play prior to injury were able to RTP. Players drafted in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft were more likely to RTP than those who were not (odds ratio, 0.1; 95% CI, 0.01-1.00; P = .05). Those who returned to NFL play played in significantly less games and seasons after their injury than before (P = .01 and P = .01, respectively). However, these values did not differ when compared with matched controls (P = .67 and P = .33). Conclusion: NFL players who RTP after RACLR do so at a similar rate but prolonged time period compared with after primary ACL reconstruction. Athletes who were drafted in earlier rounds were more likely to RTP than those who were not. Additionally, player experience prior to injury is an important factor when predicting RTP after RACLR. PMID:28451611

[Discharge from hospital into nursing home: conditions and quality of transmissions].

PubMed

Delabrière, Isabelle; Delzenne, Emmanuelle; Gaxatte, Cédric; Puisieux, François

2014-01-01

Nursing home residents are very old, with multiple comorbidities and disabled for activities of daily living (ADLs). Therefore, they have a higher risk of accidents as falls or fractures or acute diseases as infections, which require hospitalization. Care's coordination and sharing of informations between hospitals and nursing homes are often insufficient even with agreements. Thus, discharge to nursing homes after hospitalization may be difficult for old patients because of incomplete oral or written transmissions. To examine both protocols and the quality of the return to the nursing homes after an hospitalization for old residents. A prospective multicenter study done by collecting data about consecutive returns into their nursing home after an hospitalization of more than 24 hours of nursing home residents aged 65 years and more. Twenty-eight nursing homes of the North of France were enrolled in the study. During the 3 months period of the study, 246 discharges after an hospitalization of 24 hours or more were registered. 225 residents (165 women and 60 men), mean age 85.0 ± 7.2, were concerned. Most of them were ADLs disabled, with a dementia for 47.1% of them. The average length of hospitalization was 11.6 days. At the end of hospitalization, the notification of return, which was made only in 82% of cases, was announced in average 1.3 days before the discharge. Unfortunately, in 32% of cases, the notification was made the day of the discharge. Residents went back home indifferently any day of the week but more often the Friday and less often the weekend. The day and the hour of the planned discharge were respected in 79.1% of cases. In most cases, nursing home caregivers have considered that the clinical status was stable or improved compared to the previous one. However in 28% of cases, a loss of autonomy was found. Medical doctors wrote a letter of discharge in 85.8% of cases. Nurses gave written transmissions only in 41.9% of cases. Many points concerning discharge from hospital, about old people living in nursing home, have to be improved: oral transmissions about patient's status, notification of the return, discharge's letter, nurse's transmissions and assessment of the loss of autonomy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The effect of tobacco use on outcomes of laparoscopic and open inguinal hernia repairs: a review of the NSQIP dataset.

PubMed

Landin, MacKenzie; Kubasiak, John C; Schimpke, Scott; Poirier, Jennifer; Myers, Jonathan A; Millikan, Keith W; Luu, Minh B

2017-02-01

As the effort to reduce postoperative morbidity and mortality continues, the search for modifiable patient risk factors to reduce complications is ongoing. Tobacco use is associated with impaired wound healing, but its effect on inguinal hernia repair has not been studied in a large population. An ACS-NSQIP dataset was used to evaluate the effect of tobacco use on outcomes of inguinal hernia repairs. The ACS-NSQIP dataset was queried for patients who underwent open or laparoscopic inguinal hernia repairs, by primary procedure CPT codes, between years 2009-2012. Tobacco use was registered, as defined by the ACS-NSQIP, in two ways: current smoking (within the past 12 months), or history of smoking (having ever smoked). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to investigate outcome variables for 30-day morbidity by type of smoking status, while adjusting for preoperative risk factors. During the study period, 90,162 patients underwent inguinal hernia repair. 76 % of the cases were open compared to 24 % laparoscopic. The population was overwhelmingly male, 91 %, compared to 9 % female. The average age of patients was 42.5 years. Of the available data (69 % of patients), 38.5 % had a history of smoking. 18 % had smoked within the 12 months prior to surgery (current smokers). Their average number of pack years was 27.2 (SD 24.0) compared to 4.5 pack years (SD 14.7) for those who had not smoked 12 months prior to surgery (historical smokers). Using Fisher's exact test, having ever smoked was found to be significantly associated with pneumonia (p = 0.0008) and return to the operating room (p = 0.010). This relationship held when preoperative variables were controlled for using logistic regression (pneumonia, p = 0.002; return to the operating room, p = 0.002). When preoperative variables were controlled for and logistic regression was performed for current smokers, there was also a significant association with pneumonia (p = 0.005) and return to the operating room (p = 0.01). Current smoking status is a modifiable risk of patients undergoing laparoscopic and open inguinal hernia repair. Failure to quit smoking prior to surgical repair is associated with complications like pneumonia and return to the operating room.

Arthroscopic isolated posterior labral repair in rugby players

PubMed Central

Badge, Ravi; Tambe, Amol; Funk, Lennard

2009-01-01

Background The shoulder is the second most frequently injured joint after the knee in rugby players and labral tears appear to be common. There is limited data available in the literature regarding the mechanisms of posterior labral injury in rugby players and the management of these injuries. Objective The aim of this study is to report the clinical presentation, arthroscopic findings, surgical technique for repair, and the functional outcome in elite English rugby players with isolated posterior labral injuries. Study Design Case series (level IV evidence) Materials and Methods Over a 5-year period we surgically treated 142 elite rugby players, of whom 11 (7.8%) had isolated posterior labral injuries. All these 11 patients had significant contact injury. Only three (24%) patients had a true posterior shoulder dislocation. Pre- and postoperative assessment included Constant score, Oxford shoulder score, and Oxford instability score. We also assessed the time taken to return to preinjury level of fitness and the complications of surgery. Results Average follow-up was for 32 months (range 17–54 months). The mean Constant score improved from 66 to 99. The Oxford score indicated improvement, decreasing from 33 to 18; similarly, the Oxford instability score also decreased from 52.2 to 12.3. Return to playing rugby at peak level was at a mean of 4.3 months after arthroscopic repair. Conclusion Successful clinical results and rapid return to play can be achieved by appropriate early arthroscopic repair and supervised accelerated rehabilitation for posterior labral tears in elite rugby players. PMID:20616949

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) GASLAB Flask Sampling Network (March 1991 - December 2006)

DOE Data Explorer

Steele, L. P. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; Krummel, P. B. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO),; Langenfelds, R. L. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

2008-01-01

Individual measurements have been obtained from flask air samples returned to the CSIRO GASLAB. Typical sample storage times range from days to weeks for some sites (e.g. Cape Grim, Aircraft over Tasmania and Bass Strait) to as much as one year for Macquarie Island and the Antarctic sites. Experiments carried out to test for changes in sample CO2 mixing ratio during storage have shown significant drifts in some flask types over test periods of several months to years (Cooper et al., 1999). Corrections derived from the test results are applied to network data according to flask type. These measurements indicate a rise in annual average atmospheric CO2 concentration from 357.72 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1992 to 383.05 ppmv in 2006, or an increase in annual average of about 1.81 ppmv/year. These flask data may be compared with other flask measurements from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, available through 2004 in TRENDS; both indicate an annual average increase of 1.72 ppmv/year throuth 2004. Differences may be attributed to different sampling times or days, different numbers of samples, and different curve-fitting techniques used to obtain monthly and annual average numbers from flask data. Measurement error in flask data is believed to be small (Masarie et al., 2001).

Monitoring Theileria orientalis (Ikeda)-associated bovine anaemia in affected cattle over time.

PubMed

McFadden, Amj; Hart, M; Bueno, I M; Ha, H J; Heath, Acg; Pulford, D J

2017-10-15

The aim of the study was to observe changes in haematocrit (HCT) over time in a New Zealand South Island dairy herd affected by an outbreak of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA; Ikeda). A secondary aim was to relate individual cow HCTs to the amount of Theileria orientalis Ikeda DNA present in the blood, as measured by cycle threshold values, using a quantitative PCR (qPCR). Over a 6 month period, blood samples from 19 randomly selected cattle were monitored from a herd of 600 dairy cows. The sampling interval was approximately fortnightly for the first six weeks, followed by sampling at between four and six week intervals. At the initial report of the outbreak, two from six cattle were anaemic (HCT<0.25L/L). Blood collected from 14 cattle 11 days later showed that 57% (95% CI 33-77%) of the cattle sampled were anaemic. Of the 19 cattle that went on to be monitored, 12 (63% 95% CI=41-81%) developed anaemia at some point during the period of monitoring. One of the anaemic animals did not meet the case definition for TABA Ikeda. For individual cattle, the average number of days between when cattle were first detected as anaemic and when HCT returned to normal was 53days (median=47 days, range=6-92 days). At the point of notification the amount of T. orientalis Ikeda DNA in the blood of the six cattle tested was low (Cq median=36), but 11days later the amount of DNA in blood of 14 additional cows tested was relatively high (Cq median=24). Levels of all 19 cows monitored continued to remain moderately high through the period of testing (Cq median=29). This was despite a general improvement in the HCT of affected cattle. In four of the 15 cattle positive to T. orientalis Ikeda where blood fractions (plasma and whole blood) were tested, it appeared that T. orientalis Ikeda (as measured by qPCR) dropped more rapidly in plasma fractions than in whole blood at the point that HCT started to return to normal levels. Despite the assumption that tick populations were low in the Canterbury region of the South Island the impact of TABA (proportion of herd affected and the average period that animals remained anaemic) on the case herd was still relatively high. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An overview of urban stormwater-management practices in Miami-Dade County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chin, David A.

2004-01-01

Agencies with jurisdiction over stormwater-management systems in Miami-Dade County, Florida, include the Miami-Dade Department of Environmental Resources Management (DERM), South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), and Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). These agencies are primarily concerned with minor drainage systems that handle runoff from storms with return periods of 10 years or less (DERM), major drainage systems that handle runoff from storms with return periods of 25 years or more (SFWMD), and runoff from major roadways (FDOT). All drainage regulations require retention of at least a specified water-quality volume (defined volume of surface runoff), typically the first inch of runoff. The DERM and FDOT intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves used as a basis for design are similar but different, with differences particularly apparent for short-duration storms. The SFWMD 25-year 3-day storm incorporates an IDF curve that is substantially different from both the IDF curves of DERM and FDOT. A DERM methodology for designing closed exfiltration systems is applicable to storms of 1-hour duration, but is not applicable to all storms with a given T-year return period. A trench design that is applicable to all storms with a given T-year return period is presented as an alternative approach.

Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sonia R.

2015-11-01

This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

Non-stationarity in US droughts and implications for water resources planning and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apurv, T.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

The concepts of return period and reliability are widely used in hydrology for quantifying the risk of extreme events. The conventional way of calculating return period and reliability requires the assumption of stationarity and independence of extreme events in successive years. These assumptions may not be true for droughts since a single drought event can last for more than one year. Further, droughts are known to be influenced by multi-year to multi-decadal oscillations (eg. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), which means that the underlying distribution can change with time. In this study, we develop a non-stationary frequency analysis for relating meteorological droughts in the continental US (CONUS) with physical covariates. We calculate the return period and reliability of meteorological droughts in different parts of CONUS by considering the correlation and the non-stationarity in drought events. We then compare the return period and reliability calculated assuming non-stationarity with that calculated assuming stationarity. The difference between the two estimates is used to quantify the extent of non-stationarity in droughts in different parts of CONUS. We also use the non-stationary frequency analysis model for attributing the causes of non-stationarity. Finally we will discuss the implications for water resources planning and management in the United States.

Length estimations of presumed upward connecting leaders in lightning flashes to flat water and flat ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolzenburg, Maribeth; Marshall, Thomas C.; Karunarathne, Sumedhe; Orville, Richard E.

2018-10-01

Using video data recorded at 50,000 frames per second for nearby negative lightning flashes, estimates are derived for the length of positive upward connecting leaders (UCLs) that presumably formed prior to new ground attachments. Return strokes were 1.7 to 7.8 km distant, yielding image resolutions of 4.25 to 19.5 m. No UCLs are imaged in these data, indicating those features were too transient or too dim compared to other lightning processes that are imaged at these resolutions. Upper bound lengths for 17 presumed UCLs are determined from the height above flat ground or water of the successful stepped leader tip in the image immediately prior to (within 20 μs before) the return stroke. Better estimates of maximum UCL lengths are determined using the downward stepped leader tip's speed of advance and the estimated return stroke time within its first frame. For 17 strokes, the upper bound length of the possible UCL averages 31.6 m and ranges from 11.3 to 50.3 m. Among the close strokes (those with spatial resolution <8 m per pixel), the five which connected to water (salt water lagoon) have UCL upper bound estimates averaging significantly shorter (24.1 m) than the average for the three close strokes which connected to land (36.9 m). The better estimates of maximum UCL lengths for the eight close strokes average 20.2 m, with slightly shorter average of 18.3 m for the five that connected to water. All the better estimates of UCL maximum lengths are <38 m in this dataset

The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

2017-03-01

The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

A simple microstructure return model explaining microstructure noise and Epps effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saichev, A.; Sornette, D.

2014-01-01

We present a novel simple microstructure model of financial returns that combines (i) the well-known ARFIMA process applied to tick-by-tick returns, (ii) the bid-ask bounce effect, (iii) the fat tail structure of the distribution of returns and (iv) the non-Poissonian statistics of inter-trade intervals. This model allows us to explain both qualitatively and quantitatively important stylized facts observed in the statistics of both microstructure and macrostructure returns, including the short-ranged correlation of returns, the long-ranged correlations of absolute returns, the microstructure noise and Epps effects. According to the microstructure noise effect, volatility is a decreasing function of the time-scale used to estimate it. The Epps effect states that cross correlations between asset returns are increasing functions of the time-scale at which the returns are estimated. The microstructure noise is explained as the result of the negative return correlations inherent in the definition of the bid-ask bounce component (ii). In the presence of a genuine correlation between the returns of two assets, the Epps effect is due to an average statistical overlap of the momentum of the returns of the two assets defined over a finite time-scale in the presence of the long memory process (i).

Phosphorus losses from an irrigated watershed in the northwestern United States: case study of the upper snake rock watershed.

PubMed

Bjorneberg, David L; Leytem, April B; Ippolito, James A; Koehn, Anita C

2015-03-01

Watersheds using surface water for irrigation often return a portion of the water to a water body. This irrigation return flow often includes sediment and nutrients that reduce the quality of the receiving water body. Research in the 82,000-ha Upper Snake Rock (USR) watershed from 2005 to 2008 showed that, on average, water diverted from the Snake River annually supplied 547 kg ha of total suspended solids (TSS), 1.1 kg ha of total P (TP), and 0.50 kg ha of dissolved P (DP) to the irrigation tract. Irrigation return flow from the USR watershed contributed 414 kg ha of TSS, 0.71 kg ha of TP, and 0.32 kg ha of DP back to the Snake River. Significantly more TP flowed into the watershed than returned to the Snake River, whereas there was no significant difference between inflow and return flow loads for TSS and DP. Average TSS and TP concentrations in return flow were 71 and 0.12 mg L, respectively, which exceeded the TMDL limits of 52 mg L TSS and 0.075 mg L TP set for this section of the Snake River. Monitoring inflow and outflow for five water quality ponds constructed to reduce sediment and P losses from the watershed showed that TSS concentrations were reduced 36 to 75%, but DP concentrations were reduced only 7 to 16%. This research showed that continued implementation of conservation practices should result in irrigation return flow from the USR watershed meeting the total maximum daily load limits for the Snake River. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The net return from animal activity in agro-ecosystems: trading off benefits from ecosystem services against costs from crop damage.

PubMed

Luck, Gary W

2013-01-01

Animals provide benefits to agriculture through the provision of ecosystem services, but also inflict costs such as damaging crops. These benefits and costs are mostly examined independently, rather than comparing the trade-offs of animal activity in the same system and quantifying the net return from beneficial minus detrimental activities. Here, I examine the net return associated with the activity of seed-eating birds in almond orchards by quantifying the economic costs and benefits of bird consumption of almonds. Pre-harvest, the consumption of harvestable almonds by birds cost growers AUD$57.50 ha (-1) when averaged across the entire plantation. Post-harvest, the same bird species provide an ecosystem service by removing mummified nuts from trees that growers otherwise need to remove to reduce threats from fungal infection or insect pest infestations. The value of this ecosystem service ranged from AUD$82.50 ha (-1)-$332.50 ha (-1) based on the replacement costs of mechanical or manual removal of mummified nuts, respectively. Hence, bird consumption of almonds yielded a positive net return of AUD$25-$275 ha (-1) averaged across the entire plantation. However, bird activity varied spatially resulting in positive net returns occurring primarily at the edges of crops where activity was higher, compared to negative net returns in crop interiors. Moreover, partial mummy nut removal by birds meant that bird activity may only reduce costs to growers rather than replace these costs completely. Similar cost-benefit trade-offs exist across nature, and quantifying net returns can better inform land management decisions such as when to control pests or promote ecosystem service provision.

Clinical Outcome and Return to Competition after Microfracture in the Athlete’s Knee

PubMed Central

Mithoefer, Kai; Gill, Thomas J.; Cole, Brian J.; Williams, Riley J.; Mandelbaum, Bert R.

2010-01-01

Microfracture is frequently used for articular cartilage repair in athletes. This study aimed to define the strength and weaknesses of this minimally invasive cartilage repair technique in the athletic population in an effort to optimize indications, functional outcome, and athletic participation after microfracture in the athlete’s knee. A systematic analysis of original studies using microfracture in athletes was performed. Functional outcome was assessed by activity outcome scores, ability to return to sports participation, timing of the return to sport, level of postoperative sports activity, and continuation of athletic competition over time. Thirteen studies describing 821 athletes were included in the analysis with an average follow-up of 42 months. Good or excellent results were reported in 67% of athletes with normal International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) scores in 80% and significant increase of Lysholm scores, Tegner activity scores, and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) sports subscales. Return to sports was achieved in 66% at an average of 8 months after surgery, with return to competition at the preinjury level in 67%. Forty-nine percent of athletes continued to compete without change in level of play, while decreasing function was observed in 42% after 2 to 5 years. Athlete’s age, preoperative duration of symptoms, level of play, lesion size, and repair tissue morphology affected sports activity after microfracture. Microfracture improves knee function and frequently allows for return to sports at the preinjury level, but deterioration of athletic function occurs in some patients. Several independent factors were identified that can help to optimize the return to athletic competition after microfracture in the athlete’s knee. PMID:26069542

The net return from animal activity in agro-ecosystems: trading off benefits from ecosystem services against costs from crop damage

PubMed Central

Luck, Gary W

2014-01-01

Animals provide benefits to agriculture through the provision of ecosystem services, but also inflict costs such as damaging crops. These benefits and costs are mostly examined independently, rather than comparing the trade-offs of animal activity in the same system and quantifying the net return from beneficial minus detrimental activities. Here, I examine the net return associated with the activity of seed-eating birds in almond orchards by quantifying the economic costs and benefits of bird consumption of almonds. Pre-harvest, the consumption of harvestable almonds by birds cost growers AUD$57.50 ha -1 when averaged across the entire plantation. Post-harvest, the same bird species provide an ecosystem service by removing mummified nuts from trees that growers otherwise need to remove to reduce threats from fungal infection or insect pest infestations. The value of this ecosystem service ranged from AUD$82.50 ha -1–$332.50 ha -1 based on the replacement costs of mechanical or manual removal of mummified nuts, respectively. Hence, bird consumption of almonds yielded a positive net return of AUD$25–$275 ha -1 averaged across the entire plantation. However, bird activity varied spatially resulting in positive net returns occurring primarily at the edges of crops where activity was higher, compared to negative net returns in crop interiors. Moreover, partial mummy nut removal by birds meant that bird activity may only reduce costs to growers rather than replace these costs completely. Similar cost-benefit trade-offs exist across nature, and quantifying net returns can better inform land management decisions such as when to control pests or promote ecosystem service provision. PMID:25285202

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Sastry, Narayan; VanLandingham, Mark

2010-01-01

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period. PMID:20440381

Dynamic structure of stock communities: a comparative study between stock returns and turnover rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Li-Ling; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhong, Li-Xin; Ren, Fei

2017-07-01

The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PMFG and infomap methods based on a distance matrix. An empirical study using the overall data set shows that for both returns and turnover rates the largest communities are composed of specific industrial or conceptional sectors and the correlation inside a sector is generally larger than the correlation between different sectors. However, the community structure for turnover rates is more complex than that for returns, which indicates that the interactions between stocks revealed by turnover rates may contain more information. This conclusion is further confirmed by the analysis of the changes in the dynamics of community structures over five sub-periods. Sectors like banks, real estate, health care and New Shanghai take turns to comprise a few of the largest communities in different sub-periods, and more interestingly several specific sectors appear in the communities with different rank orders for returns and turnover rates even in the same sub-period. To better understand their differences, a comparison between the evolution of the returns and turnover rates of the stocks from these sectors is conducted. We find that stock prices only had large changes around important events while turnover rates surged after each of these events relevant to specific sectors, which shows strong evidence that the turnover rates are more susceptible to exogenous shocks than returns and its measurement for community detection may contain more useful information about market structure.

Effect of Acute Intermittent CPAP Depressurization during Sleep in Obese Patients.

PubMed

Jun, Jonathan C; Unnikrishnan, Dileep; Schneider, Hartmut; Kirkness, Jason; Schwartz, Alan R; Smith, Philip L; Polotsky, Vsevolod Y

2016-01-01

Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) describes intermittent collapse of the airway during sleep, for which continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is often prescribed for treatment. Prior studies suggest that discontinuation of CPAP leads to a gradual, rather than immediate return of baseline severity of OSA. The objective of this study was to determine the extent of OSA recurrence during short intervals of CPAP depressurization during sleep. Nine obese (BMI = 40.4 ± 3.5) subjects with severe OSA (AHI = 88.9 ± 6.8) adherent to CPAP were studied during one night in the sleep laboratory. Nasal CPAP was delivered at therapeutic (11.1 ± 0.6 cm H20) or atmospheric pressure, in alternating fashion for 1-hour periods during the night. We compared sleep architecture and metrics of OSA during CPAP-on and CPAP-off periods. 8/9 subjects tolerated CPAP withdrawal. The average AHI during CPAP-on and CPAP-off periods was 3.6 ± 0.6 and 15.8 ± 3.6 respectively (p<0.05). The average 3% ODI during CPAP-on and CPAP-off was 4.7 ± 2 and 20.4 ± 4.7 respectively (p<0.05). CPAP depressurization also induced more awake (p<0.05) and stage N1 (p<0.01) sleep, and less stage REM (p<0.05) with a trend towards decreased stage N3 (p = 0.064). Acute intermittent depressurization of CPAP during sleep led to deterioration of sleep architecture but only partial re-emergence of OSA. These observations suggest carryover effects of CPAP.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles.

PubMed

Vourlitis, George L; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlitis, George L.; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration ( E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52 % of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42 % of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Effect of Acute Intermittent CPAP Depressurization during Sleep in Obese Patients

PubMed Central

Jun, Jonathan C.; Unnikrishnan, Dileep; Schneider, Hartmut; Kirkness, Jason; Schwartz, Alan R.; Smith, Philip L.; Polotsky, Vsevolod Y.

2016-01-01

Background Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) describes intermittent collapse of the airway during sleep, for which continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is often prescribed for treatment. Prior studies suggest that discontinuation of CPAP leads to a gradual, rather than immediate return of baseline severity of OSA. The objective of this study was to determine the extent of OSA recurrence during short intervals of CPAP depressurization during sleep. Methods Nine obese (BMI = 40.4 ± 3.5) subjects with severe OSA (AHI = 88.9 ± 6.8) adherent to CPAP were studied during one night in the sleep laboratory. Nasal CPAP was delivered at therapeutic (11.1 ± 0.6 cm H20) or atmospheric pressure, in alternating fashion for 1-hour periods during the night. We compared sleep architecture and metrics of OSA during CPAP-on and CPAP-off periods. Results 8/9 subjects tolerated CPAP withdrawal. The average AHI during CPAP-on and CPAP-off periods was 3.6 ± 0.6 and 15.8 ± 3.6 respectively (p<0.05). The average 3% ODI during CPAP-on and CPAP-off was 4.7 ± 2 and 20.4 ± 4.7 respectively (p<0.05). CPAP depressurization also induced more awake (p<0.05) and stage N1 (p<0.01) sleep, and less stage REM (p<0.05) with a trend towards decreased stage N3 (p = 0.064). Conclusion Acute intermittent depressurization of CPAP during sleep led to deterioration of sleep architecture but only partial re-emergence of OSA. These observations suggest carryover effects of CPAP. PMID:26731735

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubin, F S; Halfon, A; Herzog, P

The ice-generating HP-ICES uses the heat of fusion of water as a heat source for the heat pump, thus converting the water into ice. The ice will be stored in a bin and used the following summer for cooling which, therefore, could be considered a by-product of heating. The annual overall Coefficient of Performance is expected to reach a value of 4.85 and related to source energy a value of 4.85 x 0.31 = 1.5. In a detailed case study on the Market Square project in Washington, D.C., it was found that for the HP-ICES the annual source energy inputmore » is about 60% and the life cycle annual average cost is 40% of the corresponding quantities for a conventional central system with equal heating and cooling capacity. The annual average operating and administration cost for the HP-ICES is less than 70% of the corresponding costs for the conventional system, while the first cost of the HP-ICES is about 70% larger than the first cost of the conventional system. With the values assumed for the discount rate, interest rate, etc., the return on investment was found to be about 15%, which gives a discounted payback period of about 6.7 years. For the Park Plaza in Boston, the annual source energy input for the HP-ICES is 35% and the energy cost is about 30% of the corresponding quantities for the conventional system. The annual average operating and administration cost for the HP-ICES is 4.5 times as great as the first cost for the conventional system. The return on investment is 13% and the payback is 8 years. These results show that the HP-ICES can be better both in energy usage and in life cycle cost than a conventional system of the same heating and cooling capacity, and holds great promise as an energy saving system.« less

Volatile Transport in Pluto's Super Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earle, Alissa M.; Binzel, Richard; Young, Leslie; Stern, S. Alan; Olkin, Catherine B.; Ennico, Kimberly; Moore, Jeffrey M.; Weaver, Harold A.; NASA New Horizons Composition Team, The NASA New Horizons GGI Team

2016-10-01

The data returned from NASA's New Horizons' reconnaissance of the Pluto system shows striking albedo variations from polar to equatorial latitudes as well as sharp boundaries for longitudinal variations. Pluto has a high obliquity (currently around 119 degrees) which varies by more than 23 degrees (between roughly 103 and 127 degrees) over a period of less than 3 million years. These obliquity properties, combined with Pluto's orbital regression in longitude of perihelion (360 degrees over 3.7 million years), create epochs of "Super Seasons" on Pluto. A "Super Season" occurs, for example, when Pluto happens to be pole-on towards the Sun at the same time as perihelion. In such a case, one pole experiences a short, intense summer (relative to its long-term average) followed by a longer than average period of winter darkness. By complement, the other pole experiences a much longer, but less intense summer and short winter season. We explore the relationship between albedo variations and volatile transport for the current epoch as well as historical epochs during which Pluto experienced these "Super Seasons". Our investigation suggests Pluto's orbit creates the potential for runaway albedo variations, particularly in the equatorial region, which would create and support stark longitudinal contrasts like the ones we see between the informally named Tombaugh and Cthulhu Regios.This work was supported by the NASA New Horizons mission.

Social Media in Shoulder & Elbow Surgery: An Analysis of Twitter and Instagram.

PubMed

Ramkumar, Prem N; Navarro, Sergio M; Cornaghie, Margaret M; Haeberle, Heather S; Hameed, Hafsah; Schickendantz, Mark S; Ricchetti, Eric T; Iannotti, Joseph P

2018-07-01

Social media provide a unique method of analyzing outcomes and quality in medicine. The purpose of this observational study was to investigate the nature of social media content related to shoulder and elbow (S&E) surgery posted by patients, surgeons, and hospitals. A public search of Instagram for a two-year period yielded 1,177 patient-related posts. A categorical system assessed the perspective, timing, tone, and content of each post. Twitter accounts of 77 S&E specialists from the top five ranked U.S. News & World Report institutions were analyzed for activity and content. 5,246 Twitter and Instagram posts for the institutions were analyzed for frequency and content. Most patient-related posts were by patients (68%), postoperative (82%), positive (87%), and centered on return-to-play for Tommy John (34%), surgical site for shoulder arthroplasty (52%), and activities of daily living for rotator cuff repair (22%). 37% of surgeons had active accounts averaging 46 posts, 87% of which were practice advertisements. Hospitals averaged 273 posts over the 2-year period, focusing on education (38%) and community (18%). S&E patients share outcomes on social media in a positive tone with procedure-dependent emphases. Surgeons on social media use sites for practice augmentation. Hospitals often focused posts towards educating the community. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Higher Education in Tennessee: An Economic Analysis from a Student, Society, and State Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tennessee State Board of Regents, Nashville.

This document presents an economic analysis of higher education in Tennessee from a student, societal, and state perspective. The cost-benefit ratios speak favorably for the economic value of higher education in Tennessee from the student's perspective. On average, a student may expect a return of $5.44 for each dollar invested; the return for an…

Teachers' Unions and Compensation: The Impact of Collective Bargaining on Salary Schedules and Performance Pay Schemes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

West, Kristine Lamm; Mykerezi, Elton

2011-01-01

This study examines the impact that collective bargaining has on multiple dimensions of teacher compensation, including average and starting salaries, early and late returns to experience, returns to graduate degrees, and the incidence of different pay for performance schemes. Using data from the School and Staffing Survey (SASS) and a more recent…

Financial Analysis: A Review of the Methods and Their Application to Employee Training. Training and Development Research Center Project Number Nine.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosier, Nancy R.

Financial analysis techniques are tools that help managers make sound financial decisions that contribute to general corporate objectives. A literature review reveals that the most commonly used financial analysis techniques are payback time, average rate of return, present value or present worth, and internal rate of return. Despite the success…

An Economic Analysis of Pigeonpea Seed Production Technology and Its Adoption Behavior: Indian Context.

PubMed

Pal, Govind; Channanamchery, Radhika; Singh, R K; Kethineni, Udaya Bhaskar; Ram, H; Prasad, S Rajendra

2016-01-01

The present study was based on primary data collected from 100 farmers in Gulbarga district of Karnataka, India, during the agricultural year 2013-2014. Study shows that average land holding size of pigeonpea seed farmers was higher in comparison to grain farmers and district average. The study illustrates a ratio of 32 : 68 towards fixed and variable costs in pigeonpea certified seed production with a total cost of ₹ 39436 and the gross and net returns were ₹ 73300 and ₹ 33864 per hectare, respectively. The total cost of cultivation, gross return, and net return in pigeonpea seed production were higher by around 23, 32, and 44 percent than grain production, respectively. Hence, production of certified seed has resulted in a win-win situation for the farmers with higher yield and increased returns. The decision of the farmer on adoption of seed production technology was positively influenced by his education, age, land holding, irrigated land, number of crops grown, and extension contacts while family size was influencing negatively. Higher yield and profitability associated with seed production can be effectively popularized among farmers, resulting in increased certified seed production.

Profitability of simple technical trading rules of Chinese stock exchange indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Hong; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-12-01

Although technical trading rules have been widely used by practitioners in financial markets, their profitability still remains controversial. We here investigate the profitability of moving average (MA) and trading range break (TRB) rules by using the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCI) from May 21, 1992 through December 31, 2013 and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index (SZCI) from April 3, 1991 through December 31, 2013. The t-test is adopted to check whether the mean returns which are conditioned on the trading signals are significantly different from unconditioned returns and whether the mean returns conditioned on the buy signals are significantly different from the mean returns conditioned on the sell signals. We find that TRB rules outperform MA rules and short-term variable moving average (VMA) rules outperform long-term VMA rules. By applying White's Reality Check test and accounting for the data snooping effects, we find that the best trading rule outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy when transaction costs are not taken into consideration. Once transaction costs are included, trading profits will be eliminated completely. Our analysis suggests that simple trading rules like MA and TRB cannot beat the standard buy-and-hold strategy for the Chinese stock exchange indexes.

Quantitative Analysis of the Usage of the COSMOS Science Education Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotiriou, Sofoklis; Bogner, Franz X.; Neofotistos, George

2011-08-01

A quantitative method of mapping the web usage of an innovative educational portal is applied to analyze the behaviour of users of the COSMOS Science Education Portal. The COSMOS Portal contains user-generated resources (that are uploaded by its users). It has been designed to support a science teacher's search, retrieval and access to both, scientific and educational resources. It also aims to introduce in and familiarize teachers with an innovative methodology for designing, expressing and representing educational practices in a commonly understandable way through the use of user-friendly authoring tools that are available through the portal. As a new science education portal that includes user-generated content, the COSMOS Portal encounters the well-known "new product/service challenge": to convince the users to use its tools, which facilitate quite fast lesson planning and lesson preparation activities. To respond to this challenge, the COSMOS Portal operators implemented a validation process by analyzing the usage data of the portal in a 10 month time-period. The data analyzed comprised: (a) the temporal evolution of the number of contributors and the amount of content uploaded to the COSMOS Portal; (b) the number of portal visitors (categorized as all-visitors, new-visitors, and returning-visitors) and (c) visitor loyalty parameters (such as page-views; pages/visit; average time on site; depth of visit; length of visit). The data is augmented with data associated with the usage context (e.g. the time of day when most of the activities in the portal take place). The quantitative results indicate that the exponential growth of the contributors to the COSMOS Portal is followed by an exponential growth of the uploaded content. Furthermore, the web usage statistics demonstrate significant changes in users' behaviour during the period under study, with returning visitors using the COSMOS Portal more frequently, mainly for lesson planning and preparation (in the afternoon hours). The findings demonstrate that the new COSMOS users follow the "law of surfing" behaviour, a common pattern of surfing behaviour in portals. However, users return to the COSMOS Portal: returning users comprise more than 50% of all COSMOS visits, stay longer on site and visit more pages. Returning visitors are benchmarked against the "law of surfing" and outperform it substantially. These quantitative results benchmark the web usage of a portal and provide its operators with maps of value-added patterns of the portal's offering to its users in the science education community.

Lightning electromagnetic radiation field spectra in the interval from 0. 2 to 20 MHz

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willett, J.C.; Bailey, J.C.; Leteinturier, C.

1990-11-20

Average energy spectral densities are presented for the fast transitions in most of the components that produce large radiation field impulses from cloud-to-ground lightning; first and subsequent return strokes; stepped, dart-stepped, and 'chaotic' leaders; and 'characteristic' cloud pulses. A disagreement in the previous literature about the spectral energy radiated by return strokes at high frequencies is noted and explained. The authors show that the spectral amplitudes are not seriously distorted by propagation over less than 35 km of seawater, although as much as 45 km of such propagation does appear to produce significant attenuation above about 10 MHz. First andmore » subsequent return strokes produce identical spectra between 0.2 and 20 MHz. The spectra of stepped and dart-stepped leader steps are nearly identical and are very similar to that of characteristic pulses. The spectra of leader steps also match return stroke spectra above 2-3 MHz after the former are increased by about 7 dB. The shapes of individual spectra do not depend on their amplitude, so the shapes of the average spectra are probably not distorted by the trigger thresholds used in the data acquisition. Return strokes are the strongest sources of radiation from cloud-to-ground lightning in the 0.2- to 20-MHz frequency range, although certain intracloud processes are stronger radiators above 8 MHz.« less

The impact of the recent financial crisis on 401(k) account balances.

PubMed

VanDerhei, Jack

2009-02-01

401(K) LOSSES FROM THE ECONOMIC CRISIS: During 2008, major U.S. equity indexes were sharply negative, with the S&P 500 Index losing 37.0 percent for the year, which translated into corresponding losses in 401(k) retirement plan assets. But how individual 401(k) participants are affected by the crisis is largely determined by their account balance, age, and job tenure. IMPACT VARIES BY ACCOUNT BALANCE: This Issue Brief estimates changes in average 401(k) balances from Jan. 1, 2008, to Jan. 20, 2009, using the EBRI/ICI 401(k) database of more than 21 million participants. Not surprisingly, how the recent financial market losses affect individual 401(k) account balances is strongly affected by the size of a participant's account balance. Those with low account balances relative to contributions experienced minimal investment losses that were typically more than made up by contributions: Those with less than $10,000 in account balances had an average growth of 40 percent during 2008, since contributions had a bigger impact than investment losses. However, those with more than $200,000 in account balances had an average loss of more than 25 percent. IMPACT VARIES BY AGE AND JOB TENURE: 401(k) participants on the verge of retirement (ages 56-65) had average changes during this period that varied between a positive 1 percent for short-tenure individuals (one to four years with the current employer) to more than a 25 percent loss for those with long tenure (with more than 20 years). SHORT-TERM VS. LONG-TERM: While much of the focus has been on market fluctuations in the last year, investing for retirement security is (or should be) a long-term proposition. When a consistent sample of 2.2 million participants who had been with the same 401(k) plan sponsor for the seven years from 1999-2006 was analyzed, the average estimated growth rates for the period from Jan. 1, 2000 through Jan. 20, 2009, ranged from +29 percent for long-tenure older participants to more than +500 percent for short-tenure younger participants. RECOVERY TIME AND FUTURE STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: This analysis also calculates how long it might take for end-of-year 2008 401(k) balances to recover to their beginning-of-year 2008 levels, before the sharp stock market declines. Because future performance is unknown, this analysis provides a range of equity returns: At a 5 percent equity rate-of-return assumption, those with longest tenure with their current employer would need nearly two years at the median to recover, but approximately five years at the 90th percentile. If the equity rate of return is assumed to drop to zero for the next few years, this recovery time increases to approximately 2.5 years at the median and nine to 10 years at the 90th percentile. NEAR-ELDERLY WITH VERY HIGH EQUITY EXPOSURE: Estimates from the EBRI/ICI 401(k) database show that many participants near retirement had exceptionally high exposure to equities: Nearly 1 in 4 between ages 56-65 had more than 90 percent of their account balances in equities at year-end 2007, and more than 2 in 5 had more than 70 percent. As a result of the Pension Protection Act of 2006, many 401(k) plan sponsors appear to be offering lifecycle/ target-date funds, which automatically rebalance asset investments into more "age appropriate" allocations. Had all 401(k) participants been in the average target date fund at the end of 2007, 40 percent of the participants would have had at least a 20 percent decrease in their equity concentrations, and consequently, may have mitigated their losses, sometimes to an appreciable extent.

Return to Play and Player Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Elite Australian Rules Football Players

PubMed Central

Liptak, Matthew G.; Angel, Kevin R.

2017-01-01

Background: Australian Rules football is a highly aerobic and anaerobic game that at times requires players to perform cutting or pivoting maneuvers, potentially exposing them to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. At present, there are limited data available addressing the impact of ACL injury on return to play and preinjury form after ACL reconstruction. Purpose: To determine the prevalence of ACL injury and the incidence of further ACL injury, and to consider player return to play and return to preinjury form after ACL reconstruction. It was hypothesized that elite-level Australian Football League (AFL) players do not return to preinjury form until, at minimum, 2 years after returning to play. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: A retrospective analysis was undertaken on a cohort of elite AFL players who injured their ACL between 1990 and 2000. Return to play after ACL reconstruction was determined by the mean number of ball disposals, or release of the ball by the hand or foot, at 1, 2, and 3 years after return to play and compared with preinjury form. Associations between player and injury characteristics, method of reconstruction, and outcomes (return to play, preinjury form, and further ACL injury) were examined. Results: During the included seasons, a total of 2723 AFL players were listed. Of these, 131 (4.8%) sustained an ACL injury, with 115 players eligible for inclusion. Of 115 players, 26% did not return to elite competition, while 28% of those who did return experienced further ACL injury. The adjusted mean number of disposals (± standard error of the mean) was significantly lower at 1 year (12.21 ± 0.63; P = .003), 2 years (12.09 ± 0.65; P = .008), and 3 years (11.78 ± 0.77; P = .01) after return to play compared with preinjury (14.23 ± 0.67). On average, players did not return to preinjury form by 3 years (P < .01). Players aged 30 years or older were less likely to return to play compared with younger players (P = .0002), moderate-weight players were more likely to return to play compared with lighter-weight players (P = .007), and there were significantly increased odds of not returning to play if the dominant side was injured (odds ratio, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.03-0.34; P = .0002). Conclusion: On average, AFL players do not return to their preinjury form after ACL injury and reconstruction, a common injury in this sporting population. This along with the high occurrence of reinjury highlights the career-threatening nature of ACL injury for elite AFL players. PMID:28680894

Venous Thromboembolism Within Professional American Sport Leagues.

PubMed

Bishop, Meghan; Astolfi, Matthew; Padegimas, Eric; DeLuca, Peter; Hammoud, Sommer

2017-12-01

Numerous reports have described players in professional American sports leagues who have been sidelined with a deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or a pulmonary embolism (PE), but little is known about the clinical implications of these events in professional athletes. To conduct a retrospective review of injury reports from the National Hockey League (NHL), Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the National Football League (NFL) to take a closer look at the incidence of DVT/PE, current treatment approaches, and estimated time to return to play in professional athletes. Descriptive epidemiology study. An online search of all team injury and media reports of DVT/PE in NHL, MLB, NBA, and NFL players available for public record was conducted by use of Google, PubMed, and SPORTDiscus. Searches were conducted using the professional team name combined with blood clot , pulmonary embolism , and deep vein thrombosis . A total of 55 venous thromboembolism (VTE) events were identified from 1999 through 2016 (NHL, n = 22; MLB, n = 16; NFL, n = 12; NBA, n = 5). Nineteen athletes were reported to have an upper extremity DVT, 15 had a lower extremity DVT, 15 had a PE, and 6 had DVT with PE. Six athletes sustained more than 1 VTE. The mean age at time of VTE was 29.3 years (range, 19-42 years). Mean (±SD) time lost from play was 6.7 ± 4.9 months (range, 3 days to career end). Seven athletes did not return to play. Players with upper extremity DVT had a faster return to play (mean ± SD, 4.3 ± 2.7 months) than those with lower extremity DVT (5.9 ± 3.8 months), PE (10.8 ± 6.8 months), or DVT with PE (8.2 ± 2.6 months) ( F = 5.69, P = .002). No significant difference was found regarding time of return to play between sports. VTE in professional athletes led to an average of 6.7 months lost from play. The majority of athletes were able to return to play after a period of anticoagulation or surgery. Those with an upper extremity DVT returned to play faster than those with other types of VTE. Further study is needed to look into modifiable risk factors for these events and to establish treatment and return-to-play guidelines to ensure the safety of these athletes.

Recovery from sports-related concussion: Days to return to neurocognitive baseline in adolescents versus young adults.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Scott L; Lee, Young M; Odom, Mitchell J; Solomon, Gary S; Forbes, Jonathan A; Sills, Allen K

2012-01-01

Sports-related concussions (SRC) among high school and collegiate athletes represent a significant public health concern. The Concussion in Sport Group (CIS) recommended greater caution regarding return to play with children and adolescents. We hypothesized that younger athletes would take longer to return to neurocognitive baseline than older athletes after a SRC. Two hundred adolescent and young adult athletes who suffered a SRC were included in our clinical research cohort. Of the total participants, 100 were assigned to the 13-16 year age group and 100 to the 18-22 year age group and were matched on the number of prior concussions. Each participant completed baseline and postconcussion neurocognitive testing using the Immediate Post-Concussion assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) test battery. Return to baseline was defined operationally as post-concussion neurocognitive and symptom scores being equivalent to baseline using reliable change index (RCI) criteria. For each group, the average number of days to return to cognitive and symptom baseline were calculated. Independent sample t-tests were used to compare the mean number of days to return to baseline. Significant differences were found for days to return to baseline between 13-16 year olds and 18-22 year olds in three out of four neurocognitive measures and on the total symptom score. The average number of days to return to baseline was greater for 13-16 year olds than for 18-22 year olds on the following variables: Verbal memory (7.2 vs. 4.7, P = 0.001), visual memory (7.1 vs. 4.7, P = 0.002), reaction time (7.2 vs. 5.1 P = 0.01), and postconcussion symptom scale (8.1 vs. 6.1, P = 0.026). In both groups, greater than 90% of athletes returned to neurocognitive and symptom baseline within 1 month. Our results in this clinical research study show that in SRC, athletes 13-16 years old take longer to return to their neurocognitive and symptom baselines than athletes 18-22 years old.

Methods to determine transit losses for return flows of transmountain water in Fountain Creek between Colorado Springs and the Arkansas River, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard

1988-01-01

Methods were developed by which transit losses could be determined for transmountain return flows in Fountain Creek between Colorado Springs, Colorado, and its confluence with the Arkansas River. The study reach is a complex hydrologic system wherein a substantially variable streamflow interacts with an alluvial aquifer. The study approach included: (1) calibration and verification of a streamflow-routing model that contained a bank-storage-discharge component; (2) use of the model to develop the methods by which transit losses could be calculated; and (3) design of an application method for calculating daily transit loss using the model results. Sources of transit losses that were studied are bank storage, channel storage, and evaporation. Magnitude of bank-storage loss primarily depends on duration of a recovery period during which water lost to bank storage is returned to the stream. Net loss to bank storage can vary from about 50% for a 0-day recovery period to about 2% for a 180-day recovery period. Virtually all water lost to bank storage could be returned to the stream with longer recovery periods. Channel-storage loss was determined to be about 10% of a release quantity. Because the loss on any given day is totally recovered in the form of gains from channel storage on the subsequent day, channel storage is a temporary transit loss. Evaporation loss generally is less than 5% of a given daily transmountain return-flow release, depending on month of year. Evaporation losses are permanently lost from the system. (USGS)

Are Returns to Education on the Decline in Venezuela and Does Mission Sucre Have a Role to Play?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzalez, Naihobe; Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo

2011-01-01

Anecdotal evidence points to a falling standard of living for the educated in Venezuela. During this same period, President Hugo Chavez implemented several education reforms. We focus on a major university education reform known as Mission Sucre and its potential impact on returns to university education. First, we show that returns to education…

26 CFR 1.6694-4 - Extension of period of collection when tax return preparer pays 15 percent of a penalty for...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to the Tax, Additional Amounts, and... assessment, the IRS will also send, before assessment of either penalty, a 30-day letter to the tax return preparer notifying him of the proposed penalty or penalties and offering an opportunity to the tax return...

Parents Returning to Work: Evaluation of Grant Recipient Outcomes 2004-05, 2005-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrier, Fran; Kellock, Peter; Burke, Gerald

2007-01-01

The Parents Returning to Work Program (PRTW) is a Victorian government initiative which commenced in 2003. It provides grants to assist eligible parents who wish to return to paid employment after a period of caring for children to participate in training that will increase their work skills and job prospects. This evaluation aimed to review the…

Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.

2017-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

Safety and Efficacy of Rivastigmine in Adolescents with Down Syndrome: Long-Term Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Spiridigliozzi, Gail A.; Crissman, Blythe G.; McKillop, Jane Anne; Yamamoto, Haru; Kishnani, Priya S.

2010-01-01

Abstract Following the completion of a 20-week, open-label study of the safety and efficacy of liquid rivastigmine for adolescents with Down syndrome, 5 of the 10 adolescents in the clinical trial continued long-term rivastigmine therapy and 5 did not. After an average period of 38 months, all 10 subjects returned for a follow-up assessment to determine the safety and efficacy of long-term rivastigmine use. Rivastigmine was well tolerated and overall health appeared to be unaffected by long-term rivastigmine use. Performance change on cognitive and language measures administered at the termination of the open-label clinical trial was compared between the two groups. No between-group difference in median performance change across the long-term period was found, suggesting that the long-term use of rivastigmine does not improve cognitive and language performance. However, two subjects demonstrated remarkable improvement in adaptive function over the long-term period. Both subjects had received long-term rivastigmine therapy. The discussion addresses the challenge of assessing cognitive change in clinical trials using adolescents with Down syndrome as subjects and the use of group versus individual data to evaluate the relevance of medication effects. PMID:21186971

ACTIVITY OF 50 LONG-PERIOD COMETS BEYOND 5.2 au

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sárneczky, K.; Szabó, Gy. M.; Csák, B.

2016-12-01

Remote investigations of ancient matter in the solar system have traditionally been carried out through observations of long-period (LP) comets, which are less affected by solar irradiation than their short-period counterparts orbiting much closer to the Sun. Here we summarize the results of our decade-long survey of the distant activity of LP comets. We found that the most important separation in the data set is based on the dynamical nature of the objects. Dynamically new comets are characterized by a higher level of activity on average: the most active new comets in our sample can be characterized by Afρ valuesmore » >3–4, higher than those for our most active returning comets. New comets develop more symmetric comae, suggesting a generally isotropic outflow. In contrast to this, the comae of recurrent comets can be less symmetrical, ocassionally exhibiting negative slope parameters, which suggest sudden variations in matter production. The morphological appearance of the observed comets is rather diverse. A surprisingly large fraction of the comets have long, tenuous tails, but the presence of impressive tails does not show a clear correlation with the brightness of the comets.« less

Interpreting the paleo-redox record: Mn enrichment factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, C. O.; Delaney, M. L.

2006-12-01

Redox-sensitive metal enrichment factors (EF), have the ability to describe the redox chemistry of the overlying water and marine sediments at time of burial. Manganese (Mn) precipitates as Mn-rich oxyhydroxides in oxic environments, leading to sedimentary EF > 1 calculated relative to average continental crust as the presumed detrital source. Mn EF can also occur from source changes that are unrelated to redox changes. We compared bulk sediment digestions to sample splits treated with a reductive cleaning step prior to sediment digestion, to test whether the Mn EF are from oxyhydroxides. We measured sedimentary Mn EF for the past 30 m.y. for a Nazca Ridge site in the southeast Pacific (ODP Site 1237). The site is marked by a pronounced color change at 162 mcd, within an interval dominated by calcareous-rich lithology, prompting questions of source versus paleo-redox changes. Mn EF were measured across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at three sites on Walvis Ridge in the southeast Atlantic (ODP Sites 1262, 1266, and 1263). The PETM global warming event leads to questions of redox changes. At Nazca Ridge Mn EF range from 10-70 prior to the change with decrease to crustal averages after the boundary. After two reductive cleanings on sediments exhibiting Mn EF >1, Mn EF were at crustal averages. Mn EF prior to the color change are oxyhydroxides and not a major input of detrital material. We suggest the color change represents a paleo-redox boundary, more oxygenated depositional setting prior to the change and more reducing depositional setting afterwards. Walvis Ridge PETM sections exhibit Mn EF values ranging between 4 and 12 prior to the warming, values at crustal averages during the warming, return to pre-event values in the recovery period. After the reductive cleaning procedure the deep (1262) and intermediate (1266) sites with Mn EF >1 before and after the warming event reduced to crustal averages with no change to Mn EF during the event. Bottom waters at those two sites were most likely oxygenated prior to the event, reducing at the onset of the warming, and returned to pre-event conditions in the recovery. Future studies of Mn EF as a paleo-redox indicator should include the reductive cleaning procedure to verify Mn-oxyhydroxides.

The Hurst exponent in energy futures prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

2007-07-01

This paper extends the work in Elder and Serletis [Long memory in energy futures prices, Rev. Financial Econ., forthcoming, 2007] and Serletis et al. [Detrended fluctuation analysis of the US stock market, Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, forthcoming, 2007] by re-examining the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, it uses daily data on energy futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, over the period from July 2, 1990 to November 1, 2006, and a statistical physics approach-the ‘detrending moving average’ technique-providing a reliable framework for testing the information efficiency in financial markets as shown by Alessio et al. [Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 197-200] and Carbone et al. [Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 344 (2004) 267-271; Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys. Rev. E 69 (2004) 026105]. The results show that energy futures returns display long memory and that the particular form of long memory is anti-persistence.

The noon and midnight mid-latitude trough as seen by Ariel 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tulunay, Y. K.; Grebowsky, J. M.

1978-01-01

The electron density data returned by the polar orbiting satellites Ariel 3 and Ariel 4 revealed that the midlatitude trough is one of the distinct large-scale features of the ionosphere at about 550 km. Recent work (e.g., Tulunay and Grebowsky, 1975) on the data included the investigation of the temporal development of the latitudinal position of the midlatitude electron density trough at dawn and dusk during the large magnetic storms of May 1967 and May 1972. Model calculations which assumed that the equatorial convection E-field varies in step with the Kp index reproduced on the average the observed behavior. In the present paper, trough observations made at noon and midnight during the period, 12-21 December 1971 which encompassed a relatively large magnetic storm are discussed. In this context, model calculations have been employed as a guide of average approximations of the actual situation in predicting the plasmapause location. It is also shown that the trough observed on the noon passes is not generally plasmapause-related as the nightside troughs are expected to be.

5 CFR 630.1302 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Persian Gulf War, and who has returned to, or will return to Federal employment with his or her agency. An... Stat. 92 (5 U.S.C. 6361 note). Persian Gulf War means the period beginning on August 2, 1990, and...

Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

A wavelet-based evaluation of time-varying long memory of equity markets: A paradigm in crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Pei P.; Chin, Cheong W.; Galagedera, Don U. A.

2014-09-01

This study, using wavelet-based method investigates the dynamics of long memory in the returns and volatility of equity markets. In the sample of five developed and five emerging markets we find that the daily return series from January 1988 to June 2013 may be considered as a mix of weak long memory and mean-reverting processes. In the case of volatility in the returns, there is evidence of long memory, which is stronger in emerging markets than in developed markets. We find that although the long memory parameter may vary during crisis periods (1997 Asian financial crisis, 2001 US recession and 2008 subprime crisis) the direction of change may not be consistent across all equity markets. The degree of return predictability is likely to diminish during crisis periods. Robustness of the results is checked with de-trended fluctuation analysis approach.

Five months of fasting in king penguin chicks: body mass loss and fuel metabolism.

PubMed

Cherel, Y; Le Maho, Y

1985-10-01

When king penguin chicks are 3-4 mo old, they enter a season of interrupted growth due to long periods of fasting, because they are irregularly fed in winter. Nine captive chicks [mean initial body mass (m) = 12.5 kg] had fasted an average of 5 mo at the end of the experiment; m was then 4.0 kg, a 68% decrease. They probably could have fasted longer, since chicks of parents delayed in the return to the colony die from starvation at an m of 3.0 kg. The long fast could be divided into three periods based on the changes in rate of decrease of m. The remarkable resistance of king penguin chicks to starvation may be partly explained by their ability to maintain protein sparing for as much as 4 mo, the duration of period II; plasma concentrations of uric acid, urea, and alanine were then minimum, 0.1, 0.4, and 0.4 mmol X l-1 respectively. Particular changes during this period, i.e., progressive increase of beta-hydroxybutyrate and decrease of glucose concentrations, might contribute to the efficiency of protein sparing. Period III was marked by a rise in protein utilization, plasma concentrations of uric acid, urea, and alanine increasing to 0.7, 1.5, and 0.8 mmol X l-1, respectively.

[Maternity leave and experience of working mothers in Lebanon].

PubMed

Saadé, N; Barbour, B; Salameh, P

2010-09-01

We conducted a cross-sectional study of 802 Lebanese mothers to evaluate effect of rapid return to work on their health and that of their child. Breastfeeding practices were also assessed. The duration of maternity leave was insufficient for 72.8% of the women. Rapid return to work could cause physical and psychological problems depending on the type of work. The average length of breastfeeding was 4.7 months and while the average desired length was 10.9 months. Breastfeeding depended on the duration of the maternity leave, the possibility of breaks for breastfeeding and the presence of nurseries at work. Urgent interventions are necessary to prolong maternity leave and promote breastfeeding among working women.

Statistical trend analysis and extreme distribution of significant wave height from 1958 to 1999 - an application to the Italian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martucci, G.; Carniel, S.; Chiggiato, J.; Sclavo, M.; Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2009-09-01

The study is a statistical analysis of sea states timeseries derived using the wave model WAM forced by the ERA-40 dataset in selected areas near the Italian coasts. For the period 1 January 1958 to 31 December 1999 the analysis yields: (i) the existence of a negative trend in the annual- and winter-averaged sea state heights; (ii) the existence of a turning-point in late 70's in the annual-averaged trend of sea state heights at a site in the Northern Adriatic Sea; (iii) the overall absence of a significant trend in the annual-averaged mean durations of sea states over thresholds; (iv) the assessment of the extreme values on a time-scale of thousand years. The analysis uses two methods to obtain samples of extremes from the independent sea states: the r-largest annual maxima and the peak-over-threshold. The two methods show statistical differences in retrieving the return values and more generally in describing the significant wave field. The study shows the existence of decadal negative trends in the significant wave heights and by this it conveys useful information on the wave climatology of the Italian seas during the second half of the 20th century.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi

2015-01-01

In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Effect of preoperative suggestion on postoperative gastrointestinal motility.

PubMed Central

Disbrow, E A; Bennett, H L; Owings, J T

1993-01-01

Autonomic behavior is subject to direct suggestion. We found that patients undergoing major operations benefit more from instruction than from information and reassurance. We compared the return of intestinal function after intra-abdominal operations in 2 groups of patients: the suggestion group received specific instructions for the early return of gastrointestinal motility, and the control group received an equal-length interview offering reassurance and nonspecific instructions. The suggestion group had a significantly shorter average time to the return of intestinal motility, 2.6 versus 4.1 days. Time to discharge was 6.5 versus 8.1 days. Covariates including duration of operation, amount of intraoperative bowel manipulation, and amount of postoperative narcotics were also examined using the statistical model analysis of covariance. An average savings of $1,200 per patient resulted from this simple 5-minute intervention. In summary, the use of specific physiologically active suggestions given preoperatively in a beleivable manner can reduce the morbidity associated with an intra-abdominal operation by reducing the duration of ileus. PMID:8342264

Periodicity of dental recall visits for young children first seen in community health centers

PubMed Central

Kuthy, RA; Kavand, G; Momany, ET; Jones, MP; Askelson, NM; Chi, DL; Wehby, GL; Damiano, PC

2014-01-01

Objectives To study whether young children who had their first dental visit (FDV) at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) are likely to return within 12 months for a second dental episode. Methods 200 Medicaid-enrolled children who were less than 6-years-old were randomly selected from five Iowa FQHCs. Dental charts were abstracted and all Medicaid claims data, regardless of provider, were followed for 36 months. Medical and dental Medicaid claims data were also appended to the data set, along with relevant data from the child’s birth certificate. Multivariable logistic regression, using backward elimination, was used to determine variables that predicted whether a child returned for his or her dental recall visit with one year of the initial dental episode. Results 56.5% of these children returned within one year. The number of children in the household demonstrated a positive impact for children returning for a second dental episode. However, an increase in the frequency of medical well-child visits at the FQHC prior to the FDV had a negative influence. There was an inverse association between dental caries at the FDV and likelihood of returning for the second visit; however, it was not statistically significant. Age at FDV did not make a difference in regard to returning for a second episode within the allotted time period. Conclusions There has been a recent emphasis for children to visit a dentist by age 1. We should not overlook the importance of diligently working with higher risk families to instill the importance of regular, periodic preventive dental care. PMID:23574299

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Standard & Poor's "Return on Resources" Measure of School Performance. Issue Brief. Volume 1, Issue 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeder, Brian

2004-01-01

Standard & Poors (S&P) uses a measure they call a Performance Cost Index (PCI) as their measure of a school or district?s ?Return on Resources?. The Performance Cost Index is defined as the average cost per measured ?unit? of student performance. In its simplest form, the Performance Cost Index is calculated as per student expenditures divided by…

Perceptions of Breast Cancer Survivors on the Supporting Practices of Their Supervisors in the Return-to-Work Process: A Qualitative Descriptive Study.

PubMed

Caron, Maryse; Durand, Marie-José; Tremblay, Dominique

2018-03-01

Purpose Supervisors are known to be key actors in ensuring the success of absent employees in their return-to-work process. However, to date, little is known about the perceptions of breast cancer survivors on the practices put in place by their supervisors to support them during this process. The objective of this study was to describe the perceptions of breast cancer survivors on the practices put in place by their supervisors to support them during their return-to-work process. Method A qualitative descriptive study was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with breast cancer survivors (n = 10) who had returned to work after treatment and were still at work more than 18 months later. Each interview was audio recorded and then transcribed verbatim for qualitative thematic content analysis using a semi-open codification framework. Results Participants identified three main practices put in place by their supervisors to support them and which they perceived as particularly helpful during the return-to-work process: (1) maintaining communication during their period of absence; (2) working with them to structure their return-to-work process before their actual return; and (3) allowing them flexibility in their schedule for a certain period, particularly at the beginning of the return-to-work process. Breast cancer survivors also identified an omission in the practice of employers: lack of follow-up over time. Conclusion Knowledge about the practices perceived as helpful by breast cancer survivors during their return-to-work process lays the groundwork for the eventual development of services to help breast cancer survivors in their return to work.

Tension Band Plating for Chronic Anterior Tibial Stress Fractures in High-Performance Athletes.

PubMed

Zbeda, Robert M; Sculco, Peter K; Urch, Ekaterina Y; Lazaro, Lionel E; Borens, Olivier; Williams, Riley J; Lorich, Dean G; Wellman, David S; Helfet, David L

2015-07-01

Anterior tibial stress fractures are associated with high rates of delayed union and nonunion, which can be particularly devastating to a professional athlete who requires rapid return to competition. Current surgical treatment strategies include intramedullary nailing, which has satisfactory rates of fracture union but an associated risk of anterior knee pain. Anterior tension band plating is a biomechanically sound alternative treatment for these fractures. Tension band plating of chronic anterior tibial stress fractures leads to rapid healing and return to physical activity and avoids the anterior knee pain associated with intramedullary nailing. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Between 2001 and 2013, there were 13 chronic anterior tibial stress fractures in 12 professional or collegiate athletes who underwent tension band plating after failing nonoperative management. Patient charts were retrospectively reviewed for demographics, injury history, and surgical details. Radiographs were used to assess time to osseous union. Follow-up notes and phone interviews were used to determine follow-up time, return to training time, and whether the patient was able to return to competition. Cases included 13 stress fractures in 12 patients (9 females, 3 males). Five patients were track-and-field athletes, 4 patients played basketball, 2 patients played volleyball, and 1 was a ballet dancer. Five patients were Division I collegiate athletes and 7 were professional or Olympic athletes. Average age at time of surgery was 23.6 years (range, 20-32 years). Osseous union occurred on average at 9.6 weeks (range, 5.3-16.9 weeks) after surgery. Patients returned to training on average at 11.1 weeks (range, 5.7-20 weeks). Ninety-two percent (12/13) eventually returned to preinjury competition levels. Thirty-eight percent (5/13) underwent removal of hardware for plate prominence. There was no incidence of infection or nonunion. Anterior tension band plating for chronic tibial stress fractures provides a reliable alternative to intramedullary nailing with excellent results. Compression plating avoids the anterior knee pain associated with intramedullary nailing but may result in symptomatic hardware requiring subsequent removal. © 2015 The Author(s).

Epidemiology of Sports-Related Concussions in National Collegiate Athletic Association Athletes From 2009-2010 to 2013-2014: Symptom Prevalence, Symptom Resolution Time, and Return-to-Play Time.

PubMed

Wasserman, Erin B; Kerr, Zachary Y; Zuckerman, Scott L; Covassin, Tracey

2016-01-01

Limited data exist among collegiate student-athletes on the epidemiology of sports-related concussion (SRC) outcomes, such as symptoms, symptom resolution time, and return-to-play time. This study used the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Injury Surveillance Program (ISP) to describe the epidemiology of SRC outcomes in 25 collegiate sports. Descriptive epidemiology study. SRC data from the NCAA ISP during the 2009-2010 to 2013-2014 academic years were analyzed regarding symptoms, time to resolution of symptoms, and time to return to play. Findings were also stratified by sex in sex-comparable sports (ie, ice hockey, soccer, basketball, lacrosse, baseball/softball) and whether SRCs were reported as recurrent. Of the 1670 concussions reported during the 2009-2010 to 2013-2014 academic years, an average (±SD) of 5.29 ± 2.94 concussion symptoms were reported, with the most common being headache (92.2%) and dizziness (68.9%). Most concussions had symptoms resolve within 1 week (60.1%); however, 6.2% had a symptom resolution time of over 4 weeks. Additionally, 8.9% of concussions required over 4 weeks before return to play. The proportion of SRCs that required at least 1 week before return to play increased from 42.7% in 2009-2010 to 70.2% in 2013-2014 (linear trend, P < .001). Within sex-comparable sports analyses, the average number of symptoms and symptom resolution time did not differ by sex. However, a larger proportion of concussions in male athletes included amnesia and disorientation; a larger proportion of concussions in female athletes included headache, excess drowsiness, and nausea/vomiting. A total of 151 SRCs (9.0%) were reported as recurrent. The average number of symptoms reported with recurrent SRCs (5.99 ± 3.43) was greater than that of nonrecurrent SRCs (5.22 ± 2.88; P = .01). A greater proportion of recurrent SRCs also resulted in a long symptom resolution time (14.6% vs 5.4%, respectively; P < .001) and long return-to-play time (21.2% vs 7.7%, respectively; P < .001) compared with nonrecurrent SRCs. Trends in return-to-play time may indicate changing concussion management practices in which team medical staff members withhold players from participation longer to ensure symptom resolution. Concussion symptoms may differ by sex and recurrence. Future research should continue to examine the trends and discrepancies in symptom resolution time and return-to-play time. © 2015 The Author(s).

An Examination of the Broader Effects of Warzone Experiences on Returning Iraq/Afghanistan Veterans’ Psychiatric Health

PubMed Central

Kimbrel, Nathan A.; DeBeer, Bryann B.; Meyer, Eric C.; Silvia, Paul J.; Beckham, Jean C.; Young, Keith A.; Morissette, Sandra B.

2015-01-01

The objective of the present research was to test the hypotheses that: (1) Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans experience a wide range of psychiatric symptomatology (e.g., obsessive-compulsive symptoms, hypochondriasis, somatization); and (2) General psychiatric symptomatology among Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans is associated with their warzone experiences. To achieve this objective, Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans (N = 155) completed a screening questionnaire that assessed a wide range of psychiatric symptoms along with a measure of warzone experiences. As expected, returning veterans reported significant elevations across a wide range of clinical scales. Approximately three-fourths screened positive on at least one clinical subscale, and a third screened positive on five or more. In addition, nearly all of these conditions were associated with veterans’ warzone experiences (average r = 0.36); however, this association was much stronger among veterans with PTSD (average r = 0.33) than among veterans without PTSD (average r = 0.15). We also observed that approximately 18% of the variance in total psychiatric symptomatology was attributable to warzone experiences above and beyond the effects of childhood trauma and demographic factors. Taken together, these findings suggest that returning veterans experience a broad array of psychiatric symptoms that are strongly associated with their warzone experiences. PMID:25541538

Returning home to die: Circular labour migration and mortality in South Africa1

PubMed Central

CLARK, SAMUEL J.; COLLINSON, MARK A.; KAHN, KATHLEEN; DRULLINGER, KYLE; TOLLMAN, STEPHEN M.

2010-01-01

Aim: To examine the hypothesis that circular labour migrants who become seriously ill while living away from home return to their rural homes to convalesce and possibly to die. Methods: Drawing on longitudinal data collected by the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system in rural northeastern South Africa between 1995 and 2004, discrete time event history analysis is used to estimate the likelihood of dying for residents, short-term returning migrants, and long-term returning migrants controlling for sex, age, and historical period. Results: The annual odds of dying for short-term returning migrants are generally 1.1 to 1.9 times (depending on period, sex, and age) higher than those of residents and long-term returning migrants, and these differences are generally highly statistically significant. Further supporting the hypothesis is the fact that the proportion of HIV/TB deaths among short-term returning migrants increases dramatically as time progresses, and short-term returning migrants account for an increasing proportion of all HIV/TB deaths. Conclusions: This evidence strongly suggests that increasing numbers of circular labour migrants of prime working age are becoming ill in the urban areas where they work and coming home to be cared for and eventually to die in the rural areas where their families live. This shifts the burden of caring for them in their terminal illness to their families and the rural healthcare system with significant consequences for the distribution and allocation of health care resources. PMID:17676501

26 CFR 1.6038-2 - Information returns required of United States persons with respect to annual accounting periods...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) beginning after December 31, 1962, of each foreign corporation which that person controls (as defined in... defined in section 1504(d) of the Code which makes a consolidated return for the taxable year. The return... determining control as defined in paragraph (b) of this section. (d) U.S. person—(1) In general. For purposes...

Returns to Education in the Economic Transition: A Systematic Assessment Using Comparable Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flabbi, Luca; Paternostro, Stefano; Tiongson, Erwin R.

2008-01-01

This paper studies a sample of economies in transition to verify the assertion that returns to schooling increase as an economy transitions to a market environment. This claim has been difficult to assess in the past as the empirical evidence so far has covered only a few countries over short time periods. A number of studies find that returns to…

Determinants of the cost of capital for privately financed hospital projects in the UK.

PubMed

Colla, Paolo; Hellowell, Mark; Vecchi, Veronica; Gatti, Stefano

2015-11-01

Many governments make use of private finance contracts to deliver healthcare infrastructure. Previous work has shown that the rate of return to investors in these markets often exceeds the efficient level. Our focus is on the factors that influence that return. We examine the effect of macroeconomic, project- and firm-level variables using a detailed sample of 84 UK private finance initiative (PFI) contracts signed between 1997 and 2010. Of the above variables, macroeconomic conditions and lead sponsor size are related to the investor return. However, our results show a remarkable degree of stability in the return to investors over the 14-year period. We find evidence of a 'prevailing norm' that is robust to project- and firm-level variation. The sustainability of excess returns over a long period is indicative of a concentrated market structure. We argue that policymakers should consider new mechanisms for increasing competition in the equity market, while ensuring that authorities have the specialist resources required to negotiate efficient contract prices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change reduces water availability for agriculture by decreasing non-evaporative irrigation losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Adam, Jennifer C.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Peters, R. Troy

2018-06-01

Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity; it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Postfledging survival and recruitment of known-origin roseate terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.

1991-01-01

From 1981-1990, 166 (10.1%) of 1636 Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) chicks banded from 1978-1985 at Falkner Island, Connecticut, [USA] and 68 (1.0%) of 6904 chicks banded during the same time period at all other colony sites in Connecticut, New York, and Massachusetts, were recaptured as breeding adults at Falkner Island. An analysis of the recapture data of the natal-site recruits resulted in an estimated average survival-and-return rate of 14.7% for the 3-yr period from fledging to first breeding. Assuming a 10% 'permanent' emigration rate of surviving young to other colony sites, the overall prebreeding survival or maturation rate to age 3 of all fledglings raised at Falkner Island from 1978-1985 was estimated to be about 16%. The 1636 chicks banded at Falkner Island comprised only 19.7% of the total of 8540 chicks banded in the three-state area, but the 166 adults that returned to their natal colony site accounted for 71.4% of the 234 known-age survivors from the 1978-1985 cohorts that had nested at Falkner Island through 1990. The recapture as adults of birds first banded as chicks provides an estimate of the maximum degree to which the breeding population at this site was sustained by natal-site recruitment. The capture of a large number of unbanded birds and birds banded as adults elsewhere indicates, however, that about two-thirds of the recent additions to the Roseate Tern breeding population at Falkner Island were immigrants recruited from other colony sites.

Early results of a simple distraction dynamic external fixator in management of comminuted intra-articular fractures of base of middle phalanx.

PubMed

Mansha, Muhammad; Miranda, Sanjay

2013-12-01

Treatment for comminuted fracture dislocations of the proximal interphalangeal joint (pilon injuries) remains a challenge. We present our short term results of twelve pilon fracture dislocations treated by closed reduction and application of a distraction dynamic external fixator. The aim of the study was to assess the clinical outcomes and compare them to the original description by Hynes and Giddins. A cohort of 12 consecutive patients with pilon fracture of the proximal interphalangeal joint (comminuted fracture of the base of middle phalanx, longitudinally unstable with joint subluxation), were treated with this method over the study period. Data was collected by an independent observer at last follow-up appointment in the clinic. The outcome measures recorded were; level of residual pain, arc of motion, X-ray appearance, return to work and satisfaction with the procedure. The study group comprises of 7 male and 5 female patients at a mean age of 38.1 years (range 21-70 years). The average range of movement achieved was 13-87° at a mean follow-up of 16.4 weeks (Range 12-42 weeks). Early return to work, good pain relief and high level of patient satisfaction were achieved. No serious complication was noted during this period. We used the construct with slight modification of the original description and we feel this modification may help to reduce the pin site infection. We found the results reproducible and based on our experience we recommend this technique to treat these complex intra-articular fractures of base of middle phalanx.

Preventing and lessening exacerbations of asthma in school-age children associated with a new term (PLEASANT): study protocol for a cluster randomised control trial

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Within the UK, during September, there is a pronounced increase in the number of unscheduled medical contacts by school-aged children (4–16 years) with asthma. It is thought that that this might be caused by the return back to school after the summer holidays, suddenly mixing with other children again and picking up viruses which could affect their asthma. There is also a drop in the number of prescriptions administered in August. It is possible therefore that children might not be taking their medication as they should during the summer contributing to them becoming ill when they return to school. It is hoped that a simple intervention from the GP to parents of children with asthma at the start of the summer holiday period, highlighting the importance of maintaining asthma medication can help prevent increased asthma exacerbation, and unscheduled NHS appointments, following return to school in September. Methods/design PLEASANT is a cluster randomised trial. A total of 140 General Practices (GPs) will be recruited into the trial; 70 GPs randomised to the intervention and 70 control practices of “usual care”. An average practice is expected to have approximately 100 children (aged 4–16 with a diagnosis of asthma) hence observational data will be collected on around 14000 children over a 24-month period. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink will collect all data required for the study which includes diagnostic, prescription and referral data. Discussion The trial will assess whether the intervention can reduce exacerbation of asthma and unscheduled medical contacts in school-aged children associated with the return to school after the summer holidays. It has the potential to benefit the health and quality of life of children with asthma while also improving the effectiveness of NHS services by reducing NHS use in one of the busiest months of the year. An exploratory health economic analysis will gauge any cost saving associated with the intervention and subsequent impacts on quality of life. If results for the intervention are positive it is hoped that this could be adopted as part of routine care management of childhood asthma in general practice. Trial registration Current controlled trials: ISRCTN03000938 (assigned 19/10/12) http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN03000938/. UKCRN ID: 13572 PMID:24041259

Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of Department of Defense Installations to Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

frequency...................................................................... 81 Figure 46. Return period analysis at Sewell’s Point (across the mouth ...Return period analysis at Sewell’s Point (across the mouth of the James River from both Langley AFB and Fort Eustis with sea level rise projections...a digital elevation model as an input and calculates the water level necessary to fill each grid cell. In other words , the fill tool takes into

Comparative analysis of rainfall and landslide damage for landslide susceptibility zonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, O.; Pasqua, A. A.

2009-04-01

In the present work we applied a methodology tested in previous works to a regional sector of Calabria (Southern Italy), aiming to obtain a zonation of this area according to the susceptibility to develop landslides, as inferred from the combined analysis of past landslide events and cumulate rainfall which triggered them. The complete series of both historical landslides and daily rainfall have been organised in two databases. For each landslide event, damage, mainly defined in relation to the reimbursement requests sent to the Department of Public Works, has been quantified using a procedure based on a Local Damage Index. Rainfall has been described by the Maximum Return Period of cumulative rainfall recorded during the landslide events. Damage index and population density, presumed to represent the location of vulnerable elements, have been referred to Thiessen polygons associated to rain gauges working at the time of the event. The procedure allowed us to carry out a classification of the polygons composing the study area according to their susceptibility to damage during DHEs. In high susceptibility polygons, severe damage occurs during rainfall characterised by low return periods; in medium susceptibility polygons, maximum return period rainfall and induced damage show equal levels of exceptionality; in low susceptibility polygons, high return period rainfall induces a low level of damage. The results can prove useful in establishing civil defence plans, emergency management, and prioritizing hazard mitigation measures.

Risk-Informed Mean Recurrence Intervals for Updated Wind Maps in ASCE 7-16.

PubMed

McAllister, Therese P; Wang, Naiyu; Ellingwood, Bruce R

2018-05-01

ASCE 7 is moving toward adopting load requirements that are consistent with risk-informed design goals characteristic of performance-based engineering (PBE). ASCE 7-10 provided wind maps that correspond to return periods of 300, 700, and 1,700 years for Risk Categories I, II, and combined III/IV, respectively. The risk targets for Risk Categories III and IV buildings and other structures (designated as essential facilities) are different in PBE. The reliability analyses reported in this paper were conducted using updated wind load data to (1) confirm that the return periods already in ASCE 7-10 were also appropriate for risk-informed PBE, and (2) to determine a new risk-based return period for Risk Category IV. The use of data for wind directionality factor, K d , which has become available from recent wind tunnel tests, revealed that reliabilities associated with wind load combinations for Risk Category II structures are, in fact, consistent with the reliabilities associated with the ASCE 7 gravity load combinations. This paper shows that the new wind maps in ASCE 7-16, which are based on return periods of 300, 700, 1,700, and 3,000 years for Risk Categories I, II, III, and IV, respectively), achieve the reliability targets in Section 1.3.1.3 of ASCE 7-16 for nonhurricane wind loads.

Refining calibration and predictions of a Bayesian statistical-dynamical model for long term avalanche forecasting using dendrochronological reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckert, Nicolas; Schläppy, Romain; Jomelli, Vincent; Naaim, Mohamed

2013-04-01

A crucial step for proposing relevant long-term mitigation measures in long term avalanche forecasting is the accurate definition of high return period avalanches. Recently, "statistical-dynamical" approach combining a numerical model with stochastic operators describing the variability of its inputs-outputs have emerged. Their main interests is to take into account the topographic dependency of snow avalanche runout distances, and to constrain the correlation structure between model's variables by physical rules, so as to simulate the different marginal distributions of interest (pressure, flow depth, etc.) with a reasonable realism. Bayesian methods have been shown to be well adapted to achieve model inference, getting rid of identifiability problems thanks to prior information. An important problem which has virtually never been considered before is the validation of the predictions resulting from a statistical-dynamical approach (or from any other engineering method for computing extreme avalanches). In hydrology, independent "fossil" data such as flood deposits in caves are sometimes confronted to design discharges corresponding to high return periods. Hence, the aim of this work is to implement a similar comparison between high return period avalanches obtained with a statistical-dynamical approach and independent validation data resulting from careful dendrogeomorphological reconstructions. To do so, an up-to-date statistical model based on the depth-averaged equations and the classical Voellmy friction law is used on a well-documented case study. First, parameter values resulting from another path are applied, and the dendrological validation sample shows that this approach fails in providing realistic prediction for the case study. This may be due to the strongly bounded behaviour of runouts in this case (the extreme of their distribution is identified as belonging to the Weibull attraction domain). Second, local calibration on the available avalanche chronicle is performed with various prior distributions resulting from expert knowledge and/or other paths. For all calibrations, a very successful convergence is obtained, which confirms the robustness of the used Metropolis-Hastings estimation algorithm. This also demonstrates the interest of the Bayesian framework for aggregating information by sequential assimilation in the frequently encountered case of limited data quantity. Confrontation with the dendrological sample stresses the predominant role of the Coulombian friction coefficient distribution's variance on predicted high magnitude runouts. The optimal fit is obtained for a strong prior reflecting the local bounded behavior, and results in a 10-40 m difference for return periods ranging between 10 and 300 years. Implementing predictive simulations shows that this is largely within the range of magnitude of uncertainties to be taken into account. On the other hand, the different priors tested for the turbulent friction coefficient influence predictive performances only slightly, but have a large influence on predicted velocity and flow depth distributions. This all may be of high interest to refine calibration and predictive use of the statistical-dynamical model for any engineering application.

Return to Play and Decreased Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Defensive Players.

PubMed

Read, Connor R; Aune, Kyle T; Cain, E Lyle; Fleisig, Glenn S

2017-07-01

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur commonly in football. Recent work has reported ACL reconstruction (ACLR) as one of several orthopaedic procedures with unfavorable outcomes for professional athletes. The performance impact to defensive players after surgery has not been quantified. To quantify the effect of ACLR on the performance of defensive players by comparing them to a cohort of matched controls as well as to measure the effect of ACLR on athletes' career length in the National Football League (NFL). Case-control and cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Thirty-eight NFL defensive players with a history of ACLR from 2006 to 2012 were identified. For each injured player, a matched control player was identified. Demographic and performance statistics were collected from the online NFL player database. Players who returned after ACLR (n = 23) were compared with players who did not return (n = 15) using t tests and chi-squared analyses. Similarly, players who returned after ACLR (n = 23) were compared with their matched controls with t tests and chi-squared analyses. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance was utilized to test for significant differences between performance before and after the season of the injury for the players in the ACLR group who returned (n = 23) and for their matched controls. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to test for differences in the rate of retirement between the groups. For all analyses, P values <.05 were considered significant. Approximately 74% (28/38) of athletes who underwent ACLR returned to play at least 1 NFL game, and 61% (23/38) successfully returned to play at least half a season (ie, 8 games). Athletes in the ACLR group who returned retired from the NFL significantly sooner and more often after surgery than their matched controls. In the seasons leading up to their injury, athletes who successfully returned to play started a greater percentage of their games (81%) and made more solo tackles per game (3.44 ± 1.47) compared with athletes in the ACLR group who did not return to play (54% and 1.82 ± 1.17, respectively) and compared with healthy control players (52% and 1.77 ± 1.19, respectively). After the season of surgery, athletes in the ACLR group who returned to play decreased to 57% games started and 2.38 ± 1.24 solo tackles per game, while their matched controls suffered no significant decreases. Players who successfully returned were above-average NFL players before their injury but comparatively average after their return.

Do Social Conditions Affect Capuchin Monkeys' (Cebus apella) Choices in a Quantity Judgment Task?

PubMed

Beran, Michael J; Perdue, Bonnie M; Parrish, Audrey E; Evans, Theodore A

2012-01-01

Beran et al. (2012) reported that capuchin monkeys closely matched the performance of humans in a quantity judgment test in which information was incomplete but a judgment still had to be made. In each test session, subjects first made quantity judgments between two known options. Then, they made choices where only one option was visible. Both humans and capuchin monkeys were guided by past outcomes, as they shifted from selecting a known option to selecting an unknown option at the point at which the known option went from being more than the average rate of return to less than the average rate of return from earlier choices in the test session. Here, we expanded this assessment of what guides quantity judgment choice behavior in the face of incomplete information to include manipulations to the unselected quantity. We manipulated the unchosen set in two ways: first, we showed the monkeys what they did not get (the unchosen set), anticipating that "losses" would weigh heavily on subsequent trials in which the same known quantity was presented. Second, we sometimes gave the unchosen set to another monkey, anticipating that this social manipulation might influence the risk-taking responses of the focal monkey when faced with incomplete information. However, neither manipulation caused difficulty for the monkeys who instead continued to use the rational strategy of choosing known sets when they were as large as or larger than the average rate of return in the session, and choosing the unknown (riskier) set when the known set was not sufficiently large. As in past experiments, this was true across a variety of daily ranges of quantities, indicating that monkeys were not using some absolute quantity as a threshold for selecting (or not) the known set, but instead continued to use the daily average rate of return to determine when to choose the known versus the unknown quantity.

An experimental test of the 'transmission-line model' of electromagnetic radiation from triggered lightning return strokes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willett, J. C.; Idone, V. P.; Orville, R. E.; Leteinturier, C.; Eybert-Berard, A.

1988-01-01

Peak currents, two-dimensional average propagation speeds, and electric field waveforms for a number of subsequent return strikes in rocket-triggered lightning flashes were measured in order to test the 'transmission-line model' of return-stroke radiation of Uman and McLain (1970). Reasonable agreement is found between the propagation speeds measured with the streak camera and those deduced from the transmission-line model. A modification of the model is proposed in which two wave fronts travel upward and downward away from a junction point a short distance above the ground.

An experimental test of the 'transmission-line model' of electromagnetic radiation from triggered lightning return strokes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willett, J. C.; Idone, V. P.; Orville, R. E.; Leteinturier, C.; Eybert-Berard, A.

1988-04-01

Peak currents, two-dimensional average propagation speeds, and electric field waveforms for a number of subsequent return strikes in rocket-triggered lightning flashes were measured in order to test the 'transmission-line model' of return-stroke radiation of Uman and McLain (1970). Reasonable agreement is found between the propagation speeds measured with the streak camera and those deduced from the transmission-line model. A modification of the model is proposed in which two wave fronts travel upward and downward away from a junction point a short distance above the ground.

Economic evaluation of a Child Health Days strategy to deliver multiple maternal and child health interventions in Somalia.

PubMed

Vijayaraghavan, Maya; Wallace, Aaron; Mirza, Imran Raza; Kamadjeu, Raoul; Nandy, Robin; Durry, Elias; Everard, Marthe

2012-03-01

Child Health Days (CHDs) are increasingly used by countries to periodically deliver multiple maternal and child health interventions as time-limited events, particularly to populations not reached by routine health services. In countries with a weak health infrastructure, this strategy could be used to reach many underserved populations with an integrated package of services. In this study, we estimate the incremental costs, impact, cost-effectiveness, and return on investment of 2 rounds of CHDs that were conducted in Somalia in 2009 and 2010. We use program costs and population estimates reported by the World Health Organization and United Nations Children's Fund to estimate the average cost per beneficiary for each of 9 interventions delivered during 2 rounds of CHDs implemented during the periods of December 2008 to May 2009 and August 2009 to April 2010. Because unstable areas were unreachable, we calculated costs for targeted and accessible beneficiaries. We model the impact of the CHDs on child mortality using the Lives Saved Tool, convert these estimates of mortality reduction to life years saved, and derive the cost-effectiveness ratio and the return on investment. The estimated average incremental cost per intervention for each targeted beneficiary was $0.63, with the cost increasing to $0.77 per accessible beneficiary. The CHDs were estimated to save the lives of at least 10,000, or 500,000 life years for both rounds combined. The CHDs were cost-effective at $34.00/life year saved. For every $1 million invested in the strategy, an estimated 615 children's lives, or 29,500 life years, were saved. If the pentavalent vaccine had been delivered during the CHDs instead of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine, an additional 5000 children's lives could have been saved. Despite high operational costs, CHDs are a very cost-effective service delivery strategy for addressing the leading causes of child mortality in a conflict setting like Somalia and compare favorably with other interventions rated as health sector "best buys" in sub-Saharan Africa.

The hibernating mobile phone: Dead storage as a barrier to efficient electronic waste recovery.

PubMed

Wilson, Garrath T; Smalley, Grace; Suckling, James R; Lilley, Debra; Lee, Jacquetta; Mawle, Richard

2017-02-01

Hibernation, the dead storage period when a mobile phone is still retained by the user at its end-of-life, is both a common and a significant barrier to the effective flow of time-sensitive stock value within a circular economic model. In this paper we present the findings of a survey of 181 mobile phone owners, aged between 18-25years old, living and studying in the UK, which explored mobile phone ownership, reasons for hibernation, and replacement motives. This paper also outlines and implements a novel mechanism for quantifying the mean hibernation period based on the survey findings. The results show that only 33.70% of previously owned mobile phones were returned back into the system. The average duration of ownership of mobile phones kept and still in hibernation was 4years 11months, with average use and hibernation durations of 1year 11months, and 3years respectively; on average, mobile phones that are kept by the user are hibernated for longer than they are ever actually used as primary devices. The results also indicate that mobile phone replacement is driven primarily by physical (technological, functional and absolute) obsolescence, with economic obsolescence, partly in response to the notion of being 'due an upgrade', also featuring significantly. We also identify in this paper the concept of a secondary phone, a recently replaced phone that holds a different function for the user than their primary phone but is still valued and intentionally retained by the user, and which, we conclude, should be accounted for in any reverse logistics strategy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

High-intensity focused ultrasound treatment of placenta accreta after vaginal delivery: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Bai, Y; Luo, X; Li, Q; Yin, N; Fu, X; Zhang, H; Qi, H

2016-04-01

To evaluate the safety and efficiency of high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) in the treatment of placenta accreta after vaginal delivery. Enrolled into this study between September 2011 and September 2013 were 12 patients who had been diagnosed with placenta accreta following vaginal delivery and who had stable vital signs. All patients were treated using an ultrasound-guided HIFU treatment system. As indication of the effectiveness of the treatment we considered decreased vascular index on color Doppler imaging, decrease in size of residual placenta compared with pretreatment size on assessment by three-dimensional ultrasound with Virtual Organ Computer-aided Analysis, reduced signal intensity and degree of enhancement on magnetic resonance imaging and avoidance of hysterectomy following treatment. To assess the safety of HIFU treatment, we recorded side effects, hemorrhage, infection, sex steroid levels, return of menses and subsequent pregnancy. Patients were followed up in this preliminary study until December 2013. The 12 patients receiving HIFU treatment had an average postpartum hospital stay of 6.8 days and an average period of residual placental involution of 36.9 days. HIFU treatment did not apparently increase the risk of infection or hemorrhage and no patient required hysterectomy. In all patients menstruation recommenced after an average of 80.2 days, and sex steroid levels during the middle luteal phase of the second menstrual cycle were normal. Two patients became pregnant again during the follow-up period. This preliminary study suggests that ultrasound-guided HIFU is a safe and effective non-invasive method to treat placenta accreta patients after vaginal delivery who have stable vital signs and desire to preserve fertility. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disease-modifying drug initiation patterns in commercially insured multiple sclerosis patients: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The goal of this research was to compare the demographics, clinical characteristics and treatment patterns for newly diagnosed multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in a commercial managed care population who received disease-modifying drug (DMD) therapy versus those not receiving DMD therapy. Methods A retrospective cohort study using US administrative healthcare claims identified individuals newly diagnosed with MS (no prior MS diagnosis 12 months prior using ICD-9-CM 340) and ≥ 18 years old during 2001-2007 to characterize them based on demographics, clinical characteristics, and pharmacologic therapy for one year prior to and a minimum of one year post-index. The index date was the first MS diagnosis occurring in the study period. Follow-up of subjects was done by ICD-9-CM code identification and not by actual chart review. Multivariate analyses were conducted to adjust for confounding variables. Results Patients were followed for an average of 35.7 ± 17.5 months after their index diagnosis. Forty-three percent (n = 4,462) of incident patients received treatment with at least one of the DMDs during the post-index period. Treated patients were primarily in the younger age categories of 18-44 years of age, with DMD therapy initiated an average of 5.3 ± 9.1 months after the index diagnosis. Once treatment was initiated, 27.7% discontinued DMD therapy after an average of 17.6 ± 14.6 months, and 16.5% had treatment gaps in excess of 60 days. Conclusions Nearly 60% of newly-diagnosed MS patients in this commercial managed care population remained untreated while over a quarter of treated patients stopped therapy and one-sixth experienced treatment gaps despite the risk of disease progression or a return of pre-treatment disease activity. PMID:21974973

Returning to sport after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in amateur sports men: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Notarnicola, Angela; Maccagnano, Giuseppe; Barletta, Federico; Ascatigno, Leonardo; Astuto, Leopoldo; Panella, Antonio; Tafuri, Silvio; Moretti, Biagio

2016-01-01

According to the literature, 95% of professional athletes return to their sport after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction surgery. The main objective of this study was to verify the return to sport after ACL reconstruction in a homogenous group of amateur sportsmen and sportswomen in a series of Italian patients. We designed a retrospective study in which we analyzed the amateur sports patients operated for ACL reconstruction. We verified whether they had returned to sporting activities by comparing the pre- and post-operative Tegner activity scores. We then analyzed the average time to restart the sporting activity and the Lysholm and International Knee Documenting Committee (IKDC) scores. We analyzed 80 subjects: 47.5% restarted a sports activity, on average after eight months, with a significant reduction of their competitive level or physical commitment, as expressed by the Tegner activity score (pre-operative: 6.9; post-operative: 3.9; p<0.01). The functional knee recovery was good, as expressed by the average score of the Lyshom Knee Scoring Scale (93.5) and the IKDC (74.7). In the literature, a return to sport for international case studies and amateur sports is higher than our data. In our population we found the lack of information provided by the medical staff at discharge and follow-up. The assessment at a short-term follow up allowed us to verify that at the end of the post-surgical rehabilitation program the patients were uninformed about the timing and the ability to resume a sporting activity. An efficacious relationship between orthopedic doctor, physiotherapist and a doctor in motorial science may ensure proper treatment the patient after ACL reconstruction. It is important to guarantee the restarting of the sports activity to have a better quality of life in amateur sports. Level of evidence: V.

Returning to sport after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction in amateur sports men: a retrospective study

PubMed Central

Notarnicola, Angela; Maccagnano, Giuseppe; Barletta, Federico; Ascatigno, Leonardo; Astuto, Leopoldo; Panella, Antonio; Tafuri, Silvio; Moretti, Biagio

2016-01-01

Summary Background According to the literature, 95% of professional athletes return to their sport after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction surgery. The main objective of this study was to verify the return to sport after ACL reconstruction in a homogenous group of amateur sportsmen and sportswomen in a series of Italian patients. Materials and methods We designed a retrospective study in which we analyzed the amateur sports patients operated for ACL reconstruction. We verified whether they had returned to sporting activities by comparing the pre- and post-operative Tegner activity scores. We then analyzed the average time to restart the sporting activity and the Lysholm and International Knee Documenting Committee (IKDC) scores. Results We analyzed 80 subjects: 47.5% restarted a sports activity, on average after eight months, with a significant reduction of their competitive level or physical commitment, as expressed by the Tegner activity score (pre-operative: 6.9; post-operative: 3.9; p<0.01). The functional knee recovery was good, as expressed by the average score of the Lyshom Knee Scoring Scale (93.5) and the IKDC (74.7). Conclusions In the literature, a return to sport for international case studies and amateur sports is higher than our data. In our population we found the lack of information provided by the medical staff at discharge and follow-up. The assessment at a short-term follow up allowed us to verify that at the end of the post-surgical rehabilitation program the patients were uninformed about the timing and the ability to resume a sporting activity. An efficacious relationship between orthopedic doctor, physiotherapist and a doctor in motorial science may ensure proper treatment the patient after ACL reconstruction. It is important to guarantee the restarting of the sports activity to have a better quality of life in amateur sports. Level of evidence: V. PMID:28217571

42 CFR 413.157 - Return on equity capital of proprietary providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... RENAL DISEASE SERVICES; OPTIONAL PROSPECTIVELY DETERMINED PAYMENT RATES FOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES... percentage equal to one and one-half times the average of the rates of interest on special issues of public... inpatient hospital services is a percentage of the average of the rates of interest described in paragraph...

42 CFR 413.157 - Return on equity capital of proprietary providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... RENAL DISEASE SERVICES; OPTIONAL PROSPECTIVELY DETERMINED PAYMENT RATES FOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES... percentage equal to one and one-half times the average of the rates of interest on special issues of public... inpatient hospital services is a percentage of the average of the rates of interest described in paragraph...

42 CFR 413.157 - Return on equity capital of proprietary providers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... RENAL DISEASE SERVICES; OPTIONAL PROSPECTIVELY DETERMINED PAYMENT RATES FOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITIES... percentage equal to one and one-half times the average of the rates of interest on special issues of public... inpatient hospital services is a percentage of the average of the rates of interest described in paragraph...

Climate of the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness, central Idaho

Treesearch

Arnold I. Finklin

1988-01-01

Describes the climate of the largest designated wilderness in the conterminous United States. Contains numerous maps, graphs, and tables. Shows annual patterns and 10-day details during the fire season. Includes both average values and frequency distributions. Examines relationship of climatic averages to topography, persistence of weather, and climatic trends.

A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

2003-04-01

Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaulding, M. L.

2015-12-01

The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

Report of the River Master of the Delaware River for the period December 1, 1985, to November 30, 1986

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, S.P.; Harkness, W.E.; Krejmas, B.E.; Vogel, K.L.

1987-01-01

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States in 1954 established the position of Delaware River Master. The Decree authorizes diversions of water from the Delaware River Basin (Figure 1) and requires compensating releases from certain reservoirs of the City of New York to be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. Reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually, were stipulated. During the 1986 report year, December 1, 1985, to November 30, 1986, precipitation and runoff varied from below average to above average in the Delaware River Basin. For the year as a whole, precipitation was 4.3 inches above average. Runoff was near average. Operations were under a status of drought at the beginning of the report year. The drought emergency was terminated on December 18, 1985, by the Delaware River Basin Commission, and operations were returned to normal as prescribed by the Decree for the remainder of the report yr. Storage in the reservoirs increased to capacity during the winter months and all New York City Delaware River Basin reservoirs spilled throughout the year. Diversions from Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey did not exceed those authorized by the terms of the Amended Decree. Releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the Montague flow objective on 69 days during the June to November period. Releases were made at conservation rates or at rates designed to relieve thermal stress in the streams downstream from the reservoirs at other times. The excess release quantity as defined by the Decree was not expended by end of the report year. New York City complied fully with the terms of the Decree and with the directives of the River Master during the year. (See also W89-04133) (USGS)

The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2016-11-01

The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

A multiscale analysis of stock return co-movements and spillovers: Evidence from Pacific developed markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Debojyoti; Bhowmik, Puja; Jana, R. K.

2018-07-01

In this paper we examine the stock market co-movement and volatility spillover dynamics in the Pacific developed markets for a period spanning over January 05, 2001 to January 09, 2018. We employ wavelet-based techniques to study the multiscale co-movement dynamics of stock returns. Additionally, we also study the subtleties of volatility spillover of returns among the sample countries. We find that: (a) diversification benefits in these markets are limited due to higher degrees of integration, (b) Pacific developed markets co-move strongly during the periods of financial crisis (i.e. the contagion hypothesis) and (c) higher degree of volatility spills during financial crisis. We believe our study holds significance in the perspective of international portfolio diversification.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Anesthesia and blood sampling of wild big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) with an assessment of impacts on survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimsatt, J.; O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Pearce, R.D.; Price, V.R.

2005-01-01

We anesthetized and blood sampled wild big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado (USA) in 2001 and 2002 and assessed effects on survival. Inhalant anesthesia was delivered into a specially designed restraint and inhalation capsule that minimized handling and bite exposures. Bats were immobilized an average of 9.1±5.1 (SD) min (range 1–71, n=876); blood sample volumes averaged 58±12 μl (range 13–126, n=718). We randomly selected control (subject to multiple procedures before release) and treatment (control procedures plus inhalant anesthesia and 1% of body weight blood sampling) groups in 2002 to assess treatment effects on daily survival over a 14-day period for adult female and volant juvenile bats captured at maternity roosts in buildings. We monitored survival after release using passive integrated transponder tag detection hoops placed at openings to selected roosts. Annual return rates of bats sampled in 2001 were used to assess long-term outcomes. Comparison of 14-day maximum-likelihood daily survival estimates from control (86 adult females, 92 volant juveniles) and treated bats (187 adult females, 87 volant juveniles) indicated no adverse effect from anesthesia and blood sampling (juveniles: χ2=22.22, df=27, P>0.05; adults: χ2=9.72, df=18, P>0.05). One-year return rates were similar among adult female controls (81%, n=72, 95% confidence interval [CI] =70–91%), females treated once (82%, n=276, 95% CI=81–84%), and females treated twice (84%, n=50, 95% CI=74–94%). Lack of an effect was also noted in 1-yr return rates of juvenile female controls (55%, n=29, 95% CI=37–73%), juveniles treated once (66%, n=113, 95% CI=58–75%), and juveniles treated twice (71%, n=17, 95% CI=49–92%). These data suggest that anesthesia and blood sampling for health monitoring did not measurably affect survival of adult female and volant juvenile big brown bats.

Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-03-01

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean <τ>. We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

Systematic review on the financial return of worksite health promotion programmes aimed at improving nutrition and/or increasing physical activity.

PubMed

van Dongen, J M; Proper, K I; van Wier, M F; van der Beek, A J; Bongers, P M; van Mechelen, W; van Tulder, M W

2011-12-01

This systematic review summarizes the current evidence on the financial return of worksite health promotion programmes aimed at improving nutrition and/or increasing physical activity. Data on study characteristics and results were extracted from 18 studies published up to 14 January 2011. Two reviewers independently assessed the risk of bias of included studies. Three metrics were (re-)calculated per study: the net benefits, benefit cost ratio (BCR) and return on investment (ROI). Metrics were averaged, and a post hoc subgroup analysis was performed to compare financial return estimates between study designs. Four randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 13 non-randomized studies (NRSs) and one modelling study were included. Average financial return estimates in terms of absenteeism benefits (NRS: ROI 325%, BCR 4.25; RCT: ROI -49%, BCR 0.51), medical benefits (NRS: ROI 95%, BCR 1.95; RCT: ROI -112%, BCR -0.12) or both (NRS: ROI 387%, BCR 4.87; RCT: ROI -92%, BCR 0.08) were positive in NRSs, but negative in RCTs. Worksite health promotion programmes aimed at improving nutrition and/or increasing physical activity generate financial savings in terms of reduced absenteeism costs, medical costs or both according to NRSs, whereas they do not according to RCTs. Since these programmes are associated with additional types of benefits, conclusions about their overall profitability cannot be made. © 2011 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2011 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Social Internal Rates of Return to College Education in the United States: 1969, 1974, 1978, and 1982. Working Paper in Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohn, Elchanan; Hughes, Woodrow W., Jr.

The issue of rates of return to educational investment over time is discussed, noting that the examination of this subject enjoyed its heyday in the middle and late 1970s. A longitudinal examination of internal rates of returns to college education for different time periods is included. Some of the reasons for reexamining the issue are: the…

Does the private sector receive an excessive return from investments in health care infrastructure projects? Evidence from the UK.

PubMed

Vecchi, Veronica; Hellowell, Mark; Gatti, Stefano

2013-05-01

This paper is concerned with the cost-efficiency of Private Finance Initiatives (PFIs) in the delivery of hospital facilities in the UK. We outline a methodology for identifying the "fair" return on equity, based on the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of each investor. We apply this method to assess the expected returns on a sample of 77 contracts signed between 1997 and 2011 by health care provider organisations in the UK. We show that expected returns are in general in excess of the WACC benchmarks. The findings highlight significant problems in current procurement practices and the methodologies by which bids are assessed. To minimise the financial impact of hospital investments on health care systems, a regulatory regime must ensure that expected returns are set at the "fair" rate. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Household Composition and Longitudinal Health Outcomes for Older Mexican Return Migrants

PubMed Central

Mudrazija, Stipica; López-Ortega, Mariana; Vega, William A.; Robledo, Luis Miguel Gutiérrez; Sribney, William

2016-01-01

Mexican return migrant population is increasing, yet our knowledge about their lives after resettlement in Mexico remains fragmentary. Using 2001–2012 longitudinal data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study, we investigate difference in household composition for older migrants who returned from the United States compared to nonmigrants. Furthermore, we fit a Cox proportional hazards model to assess the relationship between household composition and health and functional trajectories of return migrants and nonmigrants. The results indicate that return migrants with long duration of U.S. stay have different household composition than nonmigrants or short-term migrants: On average, they have smaller household size, including fewer females who may be available to offer assistance to older adults. Presence of middle-age females in the household has positive effects on health and functional trajectories. We highlight implications of this research for policy makers in Mexico and the United States. PMID:26966255

Striped bass annual site fidelity and habitat utilization in J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir, South Carolina-Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

2002-01-01

Forty-eight adult striped bass Morone saxatilis (3.2-19.1 kg) were captured by electrofishing in the tailrace of Richard B. Russell Dam and in the upper reaches of two major tributaries; they were implanted with temperature-sensitive radio transmitters and tracked approximately bimonthly for 20 months. As J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir downstream from the dam became thermally stratified in May, fish vacated the tributaries. From June to October, all striped bass were found within the reservoir's historical Savannah River channel. By August, most of the instrumented fish were found in the upper section of the reservoir, where optimal habitat was available throughout the summer owing to cool, artificially oxygenated hypolimnetic discharges from Richard B. Russell Dam. In mid-October the reservoir destratified, and fish dispersed from their up-reservoir summering areas and redistributed themselves throughout the reservoir. During early winter, the striped bass returned to tributary habitat or down-reservoir areas and generally used these locations throughout the winter. The fish exhibited a high degree of site fidelity to their summering areas, source tributaries (after fall dispersal and throughout the winter), and spring spawning areas. Mean movement rates were highest in the spring and fall, corresponding to the migration from tributaries in May and the return migration after fall dispersal. Mean movement rates were lowest in summer and winter, corresponding to the periods of high fidelity to summering and wintering areas. The average monthly temperatures and dissolved oxygen concentrations in areas used by striped bass were 19.0-20.4??C and 4.86-6.44 mg/L during May-October, which corresponded to average monthly habitat suitability index values of 0.76-0.98. Striped bass avoided temperatures above 25.1??C and dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 2.3 mg/L.

Recovery from exercise at varying work loads - Time course of responses of heart rate and systolic intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nandi, P. S.; Spodick, D. H.

1977-01-01

The time course of the recovery period was characterized by noninvasive measurements after 4 minute bicycle exercise at 3 separate work loads in volunteers with normal peak responses. Most responses started immediately to return toward resting control values. Left ventricular ejection time and stroke volume change are discussed. Changes in pre-ejection period were determined by changes in isovolume contraction time, and factors affecting the degree and rate of return are considered. The rates of change in the ejection time index and in the ratio pre-ejection period/left ventricular ejection time were virtually independent of load throughout most of recovery.

Long-range correlations and asymmetry in the Bitcoin market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.; Ibarra-Valdez, C.

2018-02-01

This work studies long-range correlations and informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market for the period from June 30, 2013 to June 3rd, 2017. To this end, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was implemented over sliding windows to estimate long-range correlations for price returns. It was found that the Bitcoin market exhibits periods of efficiency alternating with periods where the price dynamics are driven by anti-persistence. The pattern is replicated by prices samples at day, hour and second frequencies. The Bitcoin market also presents asymmetric correlations with respect to increasing and decreasing price trending, with the former trend linked to anti-persistence of returns dynamics.

Can Profit Policy and Contract Incentives Improve Defense Contract Outcomes?

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-10-01

a metric that estimates the returns required by investors. The weighted average cost of capital ( WACC ) is the standard financial statistic that...weights the returns demanded by investors that hold equity and investors that hold debt.6 Like FCFROIC, WACC is expressed as a percentage. Consequently...previous year. 5 These defense prime contractors include Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics. 6 Mathematically, WACC = Debt/(Debt

Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

PubMed

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

PubMed Central

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

Clinical Outcomes and Return to Sports in Patients with Chronic Achilles Tendon Rupture after Minimally Invasive Reconstruction with Semitendinosus Tendon Graft Transfer.

PubMed

Usuelli, Federico Giuseppe; D'Ambrosi, Riccardo; Manzi, Luigi; Indino, Cristian; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Berjano, Pedro

2017-12-01

Objective  The purpose of the study is to evaluate the clinical results and return to sports in patients undergoing reconstruction of the Achilles tendon after minimally invasive reconstruction with semitendinosus tendon graft transfer. Methods  Eight patients underwent surgical reconstruction with a minimally invasive technique and tendon graft augmentation with ipsilateral semitendinosus tendon for chronic Achilles tendon rupture (more than 30 days after the injury and a gap of >6 cm). Patients were evaluated at a minimum follow-up of 24 months after the surgery through the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS), the Achilles Tendon Total Rupture Scores (ATRS), the Endurance test, the calf circumference of the operated limb, and the contralateral and the eventual return to sports activity performed before the trauma. Results  The mean age at surgery was 50.5 years. Five men and three women underwent the surgery. The average AOFAS was 92, mean Endurance test was 28.1, and the average ATRS was 87. All patients returned to their daily activities, and six out of eight patients have returned to sports activities prior to the accident (two football players, three runners, one tennis player) at a mean of 7.0 (range: 6.7-7.2) months after the surgery. No patient reported complications or reruptures. Conclusion  Our study confirms encouraging results for the treatment of Achilles tendon rupture with a minimally invasive technique with semitendinosus graft augmentation. The technique can be considered safe and allows patients to return to their sports activity. Level of Evidence  Level IV, therapeutic case series.

Complex trajectories in a classical periodic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Alexander G.; Bender, Carl M.

2012-11-01

This paper examines the complex trajectories of a classical particle in the potential V(x) = -cos (x). Almost all the trajectories describe a particle that hops from one well to another in an erratic fashion. However, it is shown analytically that there are two special classes of trajectories x(t) determined only by the energy of the particle and not by the initial position of the particle. The first class consists of periodic trajectories; that is, trajectories that return to their initial position x(0) after some real time T. The second class consists of trajectories for which there exists a real time T such that x(t + T) = x(t) ± 2π. These two classes of classical trajectories are analogous to valence and conduction bands in quantum mechanics, where the quantum particle either remains localized or else tunnels resonantly (conducts) through a crystal lattice. These two special types of trajectories are associated with sets of energies of measure 0. For other energies, it is shown that for long times the average velocity of the particle becomes a fractal-like function of energy.

Institutional Venture Capital for the Space Industry: Providing Risk Capital for Space Companies that Provide Investor Returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Roscoe M., III

2002-01-01

provided by an institution. Those institutions tend to be Banks, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporations, and other incorporated entities that are obligated to earn a return on their invested capital. These institutions invest in a venture capital firm for the sole purpose of getting their money back with a healthy profit - within a set period of time. The venture capital firm is responsible for investing in and managing companies whose risk and return are higher than other less risky classes of investment. The venture capital firm's primary skill is its ability to manage the high risk of its venture investments while maintaining the high return potential of its venture investments. to businesses for the purpose of providing the above-mentioned Institutions a substantial return on their invested capital. Institutional Venture Capital for the Space Industry cannot be provided to projects or companies whose philosophy or intention is not to increase shareholder equity value within a set time period. efficiently when tied up in companies that intend to spend billions of dollars before the first dollar of revenue is generated. If 2 billion dollars of venture capital is invested in the equity of a Space Company for a minority equity position, then that Space Company must build that minority shareholder's equity value to a minimum investment return of 4 to 8 billion dollars. There are not many start-up companies that are able to reach public market equity valuations in the tens of billions of dollars within reasonable time horizons. Foundations, Manufacturers, and Strategic Investors can invest in projects that cannot realistically provide a substantial return on their equity to their investors within a reasonable period (5-7 years) of time. Venture Capitalists have to make money. Venture capitalists have made money on Satellite Television, Satellite Radio, Fixed Satellite Services, and other businesses. Venture capitalists have not made money on stand-alone aerospace projects that must create new markets to generate revenue.

On the statistical and transport properties of a non-dissipative Fermi-Ulam model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livorati, André L. P.; Dettmann, Carl P.; Caldas, Iberê L.; Leonel, Edson D.

2015-10-01

The transport and diffusion properties for the velocity of a Fermi-Ulam model were characterized using the decay rate of the survival probability. The system consists of an ensemble of non-interacting particles confined to move along and experience elastic collisions with two infinitely heavy walls. One is fixed, working as a returning mechanism of the colliding particles, while the other one moves periodically in time. The diffusion equation is solved, and the diffusion coefficient is numerically estimated by means of the averaged square velocity. Our results show remarkably good agreement of the theory and simulation for the chaotic sea below the first elliptic island in the phase space. From the decay rates of the survival probability, we obtained transport properties that can be extended to other nonlinear mappings, as well to billiard problems.

Drought, flood and rainfall analysis under climate change in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapoglou, Evdokia; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini; Tsanis, Ioannis; Nerantzaki, Sofia; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

In this study an analysis on the drought frequency and magnitude under climate change in Crete, Greece is performed. The analysis was performed for the time period from 1983-2100, divided into three sub-periods (1983-1999, 2000-2049 and 2050-2099) for inter-comparison. Two climate models were studied MPI-ESM-LR-r1-CSC-REMO and EC-EARTH-r12-SMHI-RCA4, following three possible representative concentration pathways (+2.6, +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2). In order to perform the analysis the results of a SWAT simulation which covered the entity of Crete using 352 subbasins, was used. Drought events are recognized by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify the meteorological drought events and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for hydrological droughts. SPI and SRI drought indices, were used in order to identify the number of drought events for each climate model and scenario. In all cases, an increase in both severity and number of drought events was calculated for the future periods, compared to the baseline period 1983-1999. This increase was smaller for the +2.6 W/m2 scenario and largest for the +8.5 W/m2. The magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated for the subbasins of Crete and the most vulnerable were identified, both in terms of severity and the change throughout the years in index magnitude. Next a flood frequency analysis was performed for the entity of Crete Island in order to calculate the magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period. In order to perform the flood frequency analysis, the results of the SWAT simulation in terms of runoff in each subbasin are used. By calculating the magnitude of flood events with 10 and 100 years return period and the change in the magnitude throughout the time periods the most vulnerable subbasins are identified. The same frequency analysis was performed for the precipitation at each subbasin, and the magnitude of extreme precipitation events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated. In this case the most significant changes appeared in Chania prefecture, having a 25-50% increase in extreme precipitation magnitude for the 10 years and the 100 years return period until the end of the third study period. Drought and flood frequency analysis can be proved a valuable tool in water management and infrastructure projects planning providing an integrated analysis for extreme event magnitude anticipation in Crete. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Maps Showing Seismic Landslide Hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Michael, John A.

2009-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =~300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazard zones were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.

2014-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazards were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Effects of soil and water conservation on crop productivity: Evidences from Anjenie watershed, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adgo, Enyew; Teshome, Akalu

2014-05-01

Widespread soil and water conservation activities have been implemented in many parts of eastern Africa to control soil erosion by water and improve land productivity for the last few decades. Following the 1974 severe drought, soil and water conservation became more important to Ethiopia and the approach shifted to watershed based land management initiatives since the 1980s. To capture long-term impacts of these initiatives, a study was conducted in Anjenie Watershed of Ethiopia, assessing fanya juu terraces and grass strips constructed in a pilot project in 1984, and which are still functional nearly 30 years later. Data were collected from government records, field observations and questionnaire surveys administered to 60 farmers. Half of the respondents had terraced farms in the watershed former project area (with terrace technology) and the rest were outside the terraced area. The crops assessed were teff, barley and maize. Cost-benefit analyses were used to determine the economic benefits with and without terraces, including gross and net profit values, returns on labour, water productivity and impacts on poverty. The results indicated that soil and water conservation had improved crop productivity. The average yield on terraced fields was 0.95 t ha-1 for teff (control 0.49), 1.86 t ha-1 for barley (control 0.61), and 1.73 t ha-1 for maize (control 0.77). The net benefit was significantly higher on terraced fields, recording US 20.9 (US -112 control) for teff, US 185 (US -41 control) for barley and US -34.5 (US - 101 control) ha-1 yr-1 for maize. The returns on family labour were 2.33 for barley, 1.01 for teff, and 0.739 US per person-day for maize grown on terraced plots, compared to US 0.44, 0.27 and 0.16 per person-day for plots without terraces, respectively. Using a discount rate of 10%, the average net present value (NPV) of barley production with terrace was found to be about US 1542 over a period of 50 years. In addition, the average financial internal rate of return (FIRR) was 301%. Other long-term impacts of terracing included farmers' growing of maize on terraced fields as a result of water conservation. Currently, farmers also grow barley on terraced fields for two crop seasons per year unlike the experiences on farms without terraces. Household incomes and food security had improved and soil erosion drastically reduced. Many farmers had adopted terracing doubling the original area under the soil conservation pilot project and consequently improving environmental conservation in the watershed.

Impact of global financial crisis on precious metals returns: An application of ARCH and GARCH methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Abdullah, Nurul Ain; Abdul Karim, Samsul Ariffin

2013-04-01

This paper is focusing on seeing the resilient of precious metals returns in facing the global financial crisis and provides a new guide for the investors before making investment decisions on precious metals. Four types of precious metals returns which are the variables selected in this study. The precious metals are gold, silver, bronze and platinum. All the variables are transferred to natural logarithm (ln). Daily data over the period 2 January 1995 to 30 December 2011 is used. Unit root tests that involve Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests have been employed in determining the stationarity of the variables. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methods have been applied in measuring the impact of global financial crisis on precious metals returns. The result shows that investing in platinum is less risky compared to the other precious metals because it is not influence by the crisis period.

Influence of age and selected environmental factors on reproductive performance of canvasbacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Serie, Jerome R.; Trauger, David L.; Austin, Jane E.

1992-01-01

Age, productivity, and other factors affecting breeding performance of canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) are poorly understood. Consequently, we tested whether reproductive performance of female canvasbacks varied with age and selected environmental factors in southwestern Manitoba from 1974 to 1980. Neither clutch size, nest parasitism, nest success, nor the number of ducklings/brood varied with age. Return rates, nest initiation dates, renesting, and hen success were age-related. Return rates averaged 21% for second-year (SY) and 69% for after-second-year (ASY) females (58% for third-year and 79% for after-third-year females). Additionally, water conditions and spring temperatures influenced chronology of arrival, timing of nesting, and reproductive success. Nest initiation by birds of all ages was affected by minimum April temperatures. Clutch size was higher in nests initiated earlier. Interspecific nest parasitism did not affect clutch size, nest success, hen success, or hatching success. Nest success was lower in dry years (17%) than in moderately wet (54%) or wet (60%) years. Nests per female were highest during wet years. No nests of SY females were found in dry years. In years of moderate to good wetland conditions, females of all ages nested. Predation was the primary factor influencing nest success. Hen success averaged 58% over all years. The number of ducklings surviving 20 days averaged 4.7/brood. Because SY females have lower return rates and hen success than ASY females, especially during drier years, management to increase canvasback populations might best be directed to increasing first year recruitment (no. of females returning to breed) and to increasing overall breeding success by reducing predation and enhancing local habitat conditions during nesting.

Economic comparison of common treatment protocols and J5 vaccination for clinical mastitis in dairy herds using optimized culling decisions.

PubMed

Kessels, J A; Cha, E; Johnson, S K; Welcome, F L; Kristensen, A R; Gröhn, Y T

2016-05-01

This study used an existing dynamic optimization model to compare costs of common treatment protocols and J5 vaccination for clinical mastitis in US dairy herds. Clinical mastitis is an infection of the mammary gland causing major economic losses in dairy herds due to reduced milk production, reduced conception, and increased risk of mortality and culling for infected cows. Treatment protocols were developed to reflect common practices in dairy herds. These included targeted therapy following pathogen identification, and therapy without pathogen identification using a broad-spectrum antimicrobial or treating with the cheapest treatment option. The cost-benefit of J5 vaccination was also estimated. Effects of treatment were accounted for as changes in treatment costs, milk loss due to mastitis, milk discarded due to treatment, and mortality. Following ineffective treatments, secondary decisions included extending the current treatment, alternative treatment, discontinuing treatment, and pathogen identification followed by recommended treatment. Average net returns for treatment protocols and vaccination were generated using an existing dynamic programming model. This model incorporates cow and pathogen characteristics to optimize management decisions to treat, inseminate, or cull cows. Of the treatment protocols where 100% of cows received recommended treatment, pathogen-specific identification followed by recommended therapy yielded the highest average net returns per cow per year. Out of all treatment scenarios, the highest net returns were achieved with selecting the cheapest treatment option and discontinuing treatment, or alternate treatment with a similar spectrum therapy; however, this may not account for the full consequences of giving nonrecommended therapies to cows with clinical mastitis. Vaccination increased average net returns in all scenarios. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lightning Return-Stroke Current Waveforms Aloft, from Measured Field Change, Current, and Channel Geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willett, J. C.; LeVine, D. M.; Idone, V. P.

2006-01-01

Three-dimensional reconstructions of six rocket-triggered lightning channels are derived from stereo photographs. These reconstructed channels are used to infer the behavior of the current in return strokes above the ground from current waveforms measured at the channel base and electric-field-change waveforms measured at a range of 5.2 kilometers for 24 return strokes in these channels. Streak photographs of 14 of the same strokes are analyzed to determine the rise times, propagation speeds, and amplitudes of relative light intensity for comparison with the electrical inferences. Results include the following: 1) The fine structure of the field-change waveforms that were radiated by these subsequent return strokes can be explained, in large part, by channel geometry. 2) The average 10 - 90% rise time of the stroke current increased by about a factor of seven in our sample, from an observed 0.31 plus or minus 0.17 microseconds at the surface to an inferred 2.2 plus or minus 0.5 microcseconds at 1 kilometer path length above the surface. 3) The three-dimensional propagation speed of the current front averaged 1.80 plus or minus 0.24 X 10(exp 8) meters per second over channel lengths typically greater than 1 kilometer. 4) Assuming that the measured current was entirely due to the return stroke forced an unreasonably large and abrupt reduction in inferred current amplitude over the first few tens of meters above the surface, especially in cases when the leader was bright relative to its stroke. Therefore, a significant fraction of the current at the surface was probably due to the leader, at least in such cases. 5) Peak return-stroke currents decreased by approximately 37 plus or minus 12% from 100 meters to 1 kilometer of path length above the surface. Because of uncertainty about how to partition the measured current between leader and return stroke, we are unable to infer the variation of current amplitude near the ground.

Return-to-play rates in National Football League linemen after treatment for lumbar disk herniation.

PubMed

Weistroffer, Joseph K; Hsu, Wellington K

2011-03-01

There is a paucity of evidence demonstrating clinical outcomes of high-end athletes sustaining a treatment for lumbar disk herniation. To evaluate the ability of a National Football League lineman to return to play after lumbar diskectomy. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. National Football League offensive and defensive linemen diagnosed with a lumbar disk herniation were identified by previously published protocols using multiple sources of the public record. Demographic and statistical performance data were compiled for each player both before and after treatment. A total of 66 linemen (36 offensive and 30 defensive) met the inclusion criteria. Fifty-two were treated surgically, and 14 were treated nonsurgically. On average, this group had a body mass index of 35.4 and was 27.6 years old. Of those players treated surgically, 80.8% (42/52) successfully returned to play an average of 33 games over 3.0 years, with 63.5% (33/52) becoming starters after treatment. Conversely, only 28.6% (4/14) of linemen successfully returned to play after nonoperative intervention, which was significantly lower than those treated with a diskectomy (P < .05). Of the linemen in the surgical cohort, 13.5% (7/52) required revision decompression, and 85.7% (6/7) of these players successfully returned to play. National Football League linemen have high return-to-play rates after lumbar diskectomy. Furthermore, because those linemen requiring revision decompression successfully returned to play 85.7% of the time, this cohort should not be denied surgical treatment after recurrent problems. Although the data in our study suggest that National Football League linemen who are treated surgically have superior outcomes to those treated nonoperatively, because of the limitations with the methodology used in this study, further prospective studies are necessary to accurately compare treatment effects and to determine the long-term prognosis for these athletes after retirement.

Segmental Blood Flow and Hemodynamic State of Lymphedematous and Nonlymphedematous Arms

PubMed Central

Montgomery, Leslie D.; Dietrich, Mary S.; Armer, Jane M.; Stewart, B. R.

2011-01-01

Abstract Background Findings regarding the influence hemodynamic factors, such as increased arterial blood flow or venous abnormalities, on breast cancer treatment-related lymphedema are mixed. The purpose of this study was to compare segmental arterial blood flow, venous blood return, and blood volumes between breast cancer survivors with treatment-related lymphedema and healthy normal individuals without lymphedema. Methods and Results A Tetrapolar High Resolution Impedance Monitor and Cardiotachometer were used to compare segmental arterial blood flow, venous blood return, and blood volumes between breast cancer survivors with treatment-related lymphedema and healthy normal volunteers. Average arterial blood flow in lymphedema-affected arms was higher than that in arms of healthy normal volunteers or in contralateral nonlymphedema affected arms. Time of venous outflow period of blood flow pulse was lower in lymphedema-affected arms than in healthy normal or lymphedema nonaffected arms. Amplitude of the venous component of blood flow pulse signal was lower in lymphedema-affected arms than in healthy or lymphedema nonaffected arms. Index of venular tone was also lower in lymphedema-affected arms than healthy or lymphedema nonaffected arms. Conclusions Both arterial and venous components may be altered in the lymphedema-affected arms when compared to healthy normal arms and contralateral arms in the breast cancer survivors. PMID:21417765

A strategy for enhancing financial performance: a study of general acute care hospitals in South Korea.

PubMed

Choi, Mankyu; Lee, Keon-Hyung

2008-01-01

In this study, the determinants of hospital profitability were evaluated using a sample of 142 hospitals that had undergone hospital standardization inspections by the South Korea Hospital Association over the 4-year period from 1998 to 2001. The measures of profitability used as dependent variables in this study were pretax return on assets, after-tax return on assets, basic earning power, pretax operating margin, and after-tax operating margin. Among those determinants, it was found that ownership type, teaching status, inventory turnover, and the average charge per adjusted inpatient day positively and statistically significantly affected all 5 of these profitability measures. However, the labor expenses per adjusted inpatient day and administrative expenses per adjusted inpatient day negatively and statistically significantly affected all 5 profitability measures. The debt ratio negatively and statistically significantly affected all 5 profitability measures, with the exception of basic earning power. None of the market factors assessed were shown to significantly affect profitability. In conclusion, the results of this study suggest that the profitability of hospitals can be improved despite deteriorating external environmental conditions by facilitating the formation of sound financial structures with optimal capital supplies, optimizing the management of total assets with special emphasis placed on inventory management, and introducing efficient control of fixed costs including labor and administrative expenses.

ENERGY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND LOAD MANAGEMENT THROUGH THE REHABILITATION AND RETURN TO PLAY PROCESS.

PubMed

Morrison, Scot; Ward, Patrick; duManoir, Gregory R

2017-08-01

Return-to-play from injury is a complex process involving many factors including the balancing of tissue healing rates with the development of biomotor abilities. This process requires interprofessional cooperation to ensure success. An often-overlooked aspect of return-to-play is the development and maintenance of sports specific conditioning while monitoring training load to ensure that the athlete's training stimulus over the rehabilitation period is appropriate to facilitate a successful return to play. The purpose of this clinical commentary is to address the role of energy systems training as part of the return-to-play process. Additionally the aim is to provide practitioners with an overview of practical sports conditioning training methods and monitoring strategies to allow them to direct and quantify the return-to-play process. 5.

CORRELATION OF MRI GRADING OF BONE STRESS INJURIES WITH CLINICAL RISK FACTORS AND RETURN TO PLAY: A 5-YEAR PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN COLLEGIATE TRACK AND FIELD ATHLETES

PubMed Central

Nattiv, Aurelia; Kennedy, Gannon; Barrack, Michelle T.; Abdelkerim, Ashraf; Goolsby, Marci A.; Arends, Julie C.; Seeger, Leanne L.

2015-01-01

Background Bone stress injuries are common in track and field athletes. Knowledge of risk factors and correlation of these to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading could be helpful in determining recovery time. Purpose To examine the relationships between MRI grading of bone stress injury with clinical risk factors and time to return to sport in collegiate track and field athletes. Study Design Prospective cohort over 5 years. Methods Two hundred and eleven male and female collegiate track and field and cross-country athletes were followed prospectively through their competitive seasons. All athletes had a pre-participation history, physical exam, and anthropometric measurements obtained annually. An additional questionnaire was completed regarding nutritional behaviors, menstrual patterns and prior injuries, as well as a 3-day diet record. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was obtained at baseline and each year of participation in the study. Athletes with clinical evidence of bone stress injuries had plain radiographs. If radiographs were negative, MRI was obtained. Bone stress injuries were evaluated by two independent radiologists utilizing an MRI grading system. MRI grading and risk factors were evaluated to identify predictors of time to return to sport. Results Thirty-four (12 males, 22 females) of the 211 collegiate athletes sustained 61 bone stress injuries during the 5-year study period. The average prospective assessment for participants was 2.1 years. MRI grade and total body bone mineral density (BMD) emerged as significant and independent predictors of time to return to sport in the multiple regression model. Specifically, the higher the MRI grade, the longer the recovery time (p<0.002). Location of bone injury at predominantly trabecular sites of the femoral neck, pubic bone and sacrum (p<0.001), and lower total body BMD (p<0.029) independently predicted prolonged time to return to sport. Conclusions Higher MRI grade, lower BMD, and skeletal sites of predominant trabecular bone structure were independently associated with delayed recovery of bone stress injuries in track and field athletes. Knowledge of these risk factors, as well as nutritional and menstrual factors, can be clinically useful in determining time to return to sport. PMID:23825184

The shift from defined benefit pensions to 401(k) plans and the pension assets of the baby boom cohort

PubMed Central

Poterba, James; Venti, Steven; Wise, David A.

2007-01-01

The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level. PMID:17686989

Theoretical study of the effect of ionospheric return currents on the electron temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Bowline, M. D.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent, three-dimensional model of the high-altitude ionosphere is presently used to study the effects of field-aligned ionospheric return currents on auroral electron temperatures for different seasonal and solar cycle conditions, as well as for different upper boundary heat fluxes. The average, large scale, return current densities, which are a few microamps/sq m, are too small to affect auroral electron temperatures. The thermoelectric effect exhibits a pronounced solar cycle and seasonal dependence, and its heat transport corresponds to an upward flow of electron energy which can be either a source or sink of electron energy depending on altitude and geophysical conditions.

Response of Pacific walruses to disturbances from capture and handling activities at a haul-out in Bristol Bay, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jay, C.V.; Olson, Tamara L.; Garner, G.W.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

1998-01-01

Observations were made on hems of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) to study their response during the capturing and handling of adult males in summer 1995 at a haul-out at Cape Peirce in southwestern Alaska. Three behaviors (alertness, displacement, and dispersal) were quantified from 16 capture sessions. Herd sizes ranged from 622 to 5,289 walruses. Handling of an immobilized walrus consisted of attempts to attach telemetry devices to the tusks and collect various biological samples. Handling activities resulted in an average of about 10-fold or greater levels of behavior in alertness, displacement, and dispersal than during precapture and darting periods. High levels of behavior usually occurred within the first 45 min of handling. In 8 of 10 capture sessions, walruses returned to predisturbance levels of behavior within 40 min of cessation of the handling disturbance. Alertness and displacement were moderately and negatively correlated with herd size during the handling period, which may reflect an effect of a threshold distance from the point of disturbance to responding individuals. Observations of walruses tagged with VHF radio transmitters indicated that the activities from a given capture session did not preclude tagged walruses from using the haul-out over a subsequent 11-wk monitoring period. Moreover, non-tagged walruses continued to extensively use the haul-out during and after the period in which capture sessions were conducted.

The State's Return on Investment in the Arizona Community Colleges. Institutional Effectiveness Series: Return on Investment Measure, May 1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubi, David C.

According to U.S. Census statistics, for every step up in educational attainment, there is an increase in average income. The mean income for those with an associate's degree, $21,116 per year, is five percent more than a person with some college, and 40% more ($6,050), than a person with only a high school diploma or equivalent. The basic cost of…

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-04-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England). We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long-term comparison of storm severity and also enables an assessment of how sea level rise is influencing return levels over time, which is important when considering long-term coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Kuo-Ting; Lih, Jiann-Shing; Ko, Jing-Yuan

2012-12-01

This study examines statistical regularities among three components of stocks and indices: daytime (trading hour) return, overnight (off-hour session) return, and total (close-to-close) return. Owing to the fact that the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has the longest non-trading periods among major markets, the TWSE is selected to explore the correlation among the three components and compare it with major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). Analysis results indicate a negative cross correlation between the sign of daytime return and the sign of overnight return; possibly explaining why most stocks feature a negative cross correlation between daytime return and overnight return [F. Wang, S.-J. Shieh, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return, Phys. Rev. E 79 (2009) 056109]. Additionally, the cross correlation between the magnitude of returns is analyzed. According to those results, a larger magnitude of overnight return implies a higher probability that the sign of the following daytime return is the opposite of the sign of overnight return. Namely, the predictability of daytime return might be improved when a stock undergoes a large magnitude of overnight return. Furthermore, the cross correlations of 29 indices of worldwide markets are discussed.

78 FR 26506 - Disclosure of Returns and Return Information to Designee of Taxpayer

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-07

... with assisting taxpayers in their financial dealings encountered difficulty in obtaining written... have encountered difficulty in obtaining and submitting the written authorizations. The 120-day period... public hearing was cancelled. One written comment responding to the NPRM was received and is available...

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model

PubMed Central

Shinzato, Takashi

2015-01-01

In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach. PMID:26225761

Operative Treatment of Traumatic Hallux Valgus in Elite Athletes.

PubMed

Covell, D Jeff; Lareau, Craig R; Anderson, Robert B

2017-06-01

Traumatic hallux valgus is an increasingly common injury in the athletic population and represents a unique variant of turf toe. Failure to appropriately recognize and treat these injuries can lead to continued pain, decreased performance, progressive deformities, and ultimately degeneration of the hallux metatarsophalangeal joint. Limited literature currently exists to assist in the diagnosis, management, and operative treatment. Nineteen patients were reviewed in this series, including 12 National Football League, 6 college, and 1 high school player who was a college prospect. The average age for all patients at the time of surgery was 24.4 years (range, 19-33 years). Return to play and complications were evaluated. Overall, good operative results were obtained, with 74% of patients returning to their preinjury level of play at an average recovery time of 3.4 months. Traumatic hallux valgus is an increasingly common injury in the athletic population and represents a unique variant of turf toe. The impact of this injury cannot be overstated, as one-quarter of players were unable to return to play. Level IV, case series.

Organizational performance, Marketing strategy, and Financial strategic alignment: an empirical study on Iranian pharmaceutical firms.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aarabi, Sied Mohammad; Salamzadeh, Jamshid

2013-08-02

Strategic Functional-level planning should be aligned with business level and other functional strategies of a company. It is presumed that assimilating the strategies could have positive contribution to business performance, in this regard alignment between marketing strategy and financial strategy seems to be the most important strategies being studied. An empirical work in generic pharmaceutical manufacturing companies for evaluating effect of alignment between these two functions on organizational performance was developed in this paper. All Iranian pharmaceutical generic manufactures listed in Tehran stock market have been tested for period of five years between 2006-2010 and their marketing strategies were determined by using Slater and Olson taxonomy and their financial strategies have been developed by calculating total risk and total return of sample companies for five years based on rate of risk and return in the frame of a 2 × 2 matrix. For the business performance three profitability indices including Q-Tubin (Rate of market value to net asset value), ROA (Return on Asset), ROE (Return on Equity) have been tested. For analysis, a series of one-way ANOVAs as a collection of statistical models within marketing strategies considering financial strategy as independent variable and the three performance measures as dependent variables was used. Results show strategic alignment between financial and marketing has significant impact on profitability of company resulting in arise of all three profitability indices. Q tubing's rate were 2.33,2.09,2.29,2.58 and rate of ROA were 0.21,0.194,0.25,0.22 and rate of ROE were 0.44,0.46,0.45,0.42 for matched strategy types, respectively the rates shown here are more than average meaning that specific type of marketing strategy is fitted with specific type of financial strategy. Managers should not consider decisions regarding marketing strategy independently of their financial strategy.

Organizational performance, Marketing strategy, and Financial strategic alignment: an empirical study on Iranian pharmaceutical firms

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Strategic Functional-level planning should be aligned with business level and other functional strategies of a company. It is presumed that assimilating the strategies could have positive contribution to business performance, in this regard alignment between marketing strategy and financial strategy seems to be the most important strategies being studied. An empirical work in generic pharmaceutical manufacturing companies for evaluating effect of alignment between these two functions on organizational performance was developed in this paper. Methods All Iranian pharmaceutical generic manufactures listed in Tehran stock market have been tested for period of five years between 2006–2010 and their marketing strategies were determined by using Slater and Olson taxonomy and their financial strategies have been developed by calculating total risk and total return of sample companies for five years based on rate of risk and return in the frame of a 2 × 2 matrix. For the business performance three profitability indices including Q-Tubin (Rate of market value to net asset value), ROA (Return on Asset), ROE (Return on Equity) have been tested. For analysis, a series of one-way ANOVAs as a collection of statistical models within marketing strategies considering financial strategy as independent variable and the three performance measures as dependent variables was used. Results Results show strategic alignment between financial and marketing has significant impact on profitability of company resulting in arise of all three profitability indices. Q tubing’s rate were 2.33,2.09,2.29,2.58 and rate of ROA were 0.21,0.194,0.25,0.22 and rate of ROE were 0.44,0.46,0.45,0.42 for matched strategy types, respectively the rates shown here are more than average meaning that specific type of marketing strategy is fitted with specific type of financial strategy. Conclusion Managers should not consider decisions regarding marketing strategy independently of their financial strategy. PMID:23915467

Ontogeny of Foraging Competence in Capuchin Monkeys (Cebus capucinus) for Easy versus Difficult to Acquire Fruits: A Test of the Needing to Learn Hypothesis.

PubMed

Eadie, Elizabeth Christine

2015-01-01

Which factors select for long juvenile periods in some species is not well understood. One potential reason to delay the onset of reproduction is slow food acquisition rates, either due to competition (part of the ecological risk avoidance hypothesis), or due to a decreased foraging efficiency (a version of the needing to learn hypothesis). Capuchins provide a useful genus to test the needing to learn hypothesis because they are known for having long juvenile periods and a difficult-to-acquire diet. Generalized, linear, mixed models with data from 609 fruit forage focal follows on 49, habituated, wild Cebus capucinus were used to test two predictions from the needing-to-learn hypothesis as it applies to fruit foraging skills: 1) capuchin monkeys do not achieve adult foraging return rates for difficult-to-acquire fruits before late in the juvenile period; and 2) variance in return rates for these fruits is at least partially associated with differences in foraging skill. In support of the first prediction, adults, compared with all younger age classes, had significantly higher foraging return rates when foraging for fruits that were ranked as difficult-to-acquire (return rates relative to adults: 0.30-0.41, p-value range 0.008-0.016), indicating that the individuals in the group who have the most foraging experience also achieve the highest return rates. In contrast, and in support of the second prediction, there were no significant differences between age classes for fruits that were ranked as easy to acquire (return rates relative to adults: 0.97-1.42, p-value range 0.086-0.896), indicating that strength and/or skill are likely to affect return rates. In addition, fruits that were difficult to acquire were foraged at nearly identical rates by adult males and significantly smaller (and presumably weaker) adult females (males relative to females: 1.01, p = 0.978), while subadult females had much lower foraging efficiency than the similarly-sized but more experienced adult females (subadults relative to adults: 0.34, p = 0.052), indicating that skill, specifically, is likely to have an effect on return rates. These results are consistent with the needing to learn hypothesis and indicate that long juvenile periods in capuchins may be the result of selection for more time to learn foraging skills for difficult-to-acquire fruits.

Return to sexual activity and modern family planning use in the extended postpartum period: an analysis of findings from seventeen countries.

PubMed

Borda, Maria R; Winfrey, William; McKaig, Catharine

2010-12-01

Unintended pregnancies can lead to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Family planning use during the first year postpartum has the potential to significantly reduce at least some of these unintended pregnancies. This paper examines the relationship of menses return, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration on return to sexual activity and use of modern family planning among postpartum women. This paper presents results from a secondary data analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 17 countries. For postpartum women, the return of menses, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration are significantly associated with return to sexual activity in at least 10 out of the 17 countries but not consistently associated with family planning use. Only menses return had a significant association with use of modern family planning in the majority of countries. These findings point to the importance of education about pregnancy risk prior to menses return.

A New Insight into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Central India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, H. S.; Shukla, A. K.; Khan, P. K.; Mishra, O. P.

2013-12-01

The Son-Narmada-Tapti lineament and its surroundings of Central India (CI) is the second most important tectonic regime following the converging margin along Himalayas-Myanmar-Andaman of the Indian sub-continent, which attracted several geoscientists to assess its seismic hazard potential. Our study area, a part of CI, is bounded between latitudes 18°-26°N and longitudes 73°-83°E, representing a stable part of Peninsular India. Past damaging moderate magnitude earthquakes as well as continuing microseismicity in the area provided enough data for seismological study. Our estimates based on regional Gutenberg-Richter relationship showed lower b values (i.e., between 0.68 and 0.76) from the average for the study area. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis carried out over the area with a radius of ~300 km encircling Bhopal yielded a conspicuous relationship between earthquake return period ( T) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). Analyses of T and PGA shows that PGA value at bedrock varies from 0.08 to 0.15 g for 10 % ( T = 475 years) and 2 % ( T = 2,475 years) probabilities exceeding 50 years, respectively. We establish the empirical relationships and between zero period acceleration (ZPA) and shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m [ V s (30)] for the two different return periods. These demonstrate that the ZPA values decrease with increasing shear wave velocity, suggesting a diagnostic indicator for designing the structures at a specific site of interest. The predictive designed response spectra generated at a site for periods up to 4.0 s at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance of ground motion for 50 years can be used for designing duration dependent structures of variable vertical dimension. We infer that this concept of assimilating uniform hazard response spectra and predictive design at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years at 5 % damping at bedrocks of different categories may offer potential inputs for designing earthquake resistant structures of variable dimensions for the CI region under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program for India.

Venous Thromboembolism Within Professional American Sport Leagues

PubMed Central

Bishop, Meghan; Astolfi, Matthew; Padegimas, Eric; DeLuca, Peter; Hammoud, Sommer

2017-01-01

Background: Numerous reports have described players in professional American sports leagues who have been sidelined with a deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or a pulmonary embolism (PE), but little is known about the clinical implications of these events in professional athletes. Purpose: To conduct a retrospective review of injury reports from the National Hockey League (NHL), Major League Baseball (MLB), the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the National Football League (NFL) to take a closer look at the incidence of DVT/PE, current treatment approaches, and estimated time to return to play in professional athletes. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: An online search of all team injury and media reports of DVT/PE in NHL, MLB, NBA, and NFL players available for public record was conducted by use of Google, PubMed, and SPORTDiscus. Searches were conducted using the professional team name combined with blood clot, pulmonary embolism, and deep vein thrombosis. Results: A total of 55 venous thromboembolism (VTE) events were identified from 1999 through 2016 (NHL, n = 22; MLB, n = 16; NFL, n = 12; NBA, n = 5). Nineteen athletes were reported to have an upper extremity DVT, 15 had a lower extremity DVT, 15 had a PE, and 6 had DVT with PE. Six athletes sustained more than 1 VTE. The mean age at time of VTE was 29.3 years (range, 19-42 years). Mean (±SD) time lost from play was 6.7 ± 4.9 months (range, 3 days to career end). Seven athletes did not return to play. Players with upper extremity DVT had a faster return to play (mean ± SD, 4.3 ± 2.7 months) than those with lower extremity DVT (5.9 ± 3.8 months), PE (10.8 ± 6.8 months), or DVT with PE (8.2 ± 2.6 months) (F = 5.69, P = .002). No significant difference was found regarding time of return to play between sports. Conclusion: VTE in professional athletes led to an average of 6.7 months lost from play. The majority of athletes were able to return to play after a period of anticoagulation or surgery. Those with an upper extremity DVT returned to play faster than those with other types of VTE. Further study is needed to look into modifiable risk factors for these events and to establish treatment and return-to-play guidelines to ensure the safety of these athletes. PMID:29318176

A physiological increase in the hepatic glycogen level does not affect the response of net hepatic glucose uptake to insulin.

PubMed

Winnick, Jason J; An, Zhibo; Moore, Mary Courtney; Ramnanan, Christopher J; Farmer, Ben; Shiota, Masakazu; Cherrington, Alan D

2009-08-01

To determine the effect of an acute increase in hepatic glycogen on net hepatic glucose uptake (NHGU) and disposition in response to insulin in vivo, studies were performed on two groups of dogs fasted 18 h. During the first 4 h of the study, somatostatin was infused peripherally, while insulin and glucagon were replaced intraportally in basal amounts. Hyperglycemia was brought about by glucose infusion, and either saline (n = 7) or fructose (n = 7; to stimulate NHGU and glycogen deposition) was infused intraportally. A 2-h control period then followed, during which the portal fructose and saline infusions were stopped, allowing NHGU and glycogen deposition in the fructose-infused animals to return to rates similar to those of the animals that received the saline infusion. This was followed by a 2-h experimental period, during which hyperglycemia was continued but insulin infusion was increased fourfold in both groups. During the initial 4-h glycogen loading period, NHGU averaged 1.18 +/- 0.27 and 5.55 +/- 0.53 mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) and glycogen synthesis averaged 0.72 +/- 0.24 and 3.98 +/- 0.57 mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) in the saline and fructose groups, respectively (P < 0.05). During the 2-h hyperinsulinemic period, NHGU rose from 1.5 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.2 to 3.1 +/- 0.6 and 2.5 +/- 0.5 mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) in the saline and fructose groups, respectively, a change of 1.6 mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) in both groups despite a significantly greater liver glycogen level in the fructose-infused group. Likewise, the metabolic fate of the extracted glucose (glycogen, lactate, or carbon dioxide) was not different between groups. These data indicate that an acute physiological increase in the hepatic glycogen content does not alter liver glucose uptake and storage under hyperglycemic/hyperinsulinemic conditions in the dog.

Movements of wolves at the northern extreme of the species' range, including during four months of darkness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.; Cluff, H.D.

2011-01-01

Information about wolf (Canis lupus) movements anywhere near the northern extreme of the species' range in the High Arctic (<75??N latitude) are lacking. There, wolves prey primarily on muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and must survive 4 months of 24 hr/day winter darkness and temperatures reaching -53 C. The extent to which wolves remain active and prey on muskoxen during the dark period are unknown, for the closest area where information is available about winter wolf movements is >2,250 km south. We studied a pack of ???20 wolves on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (80??N latitude) from July 2009 through mid-April 2010 by collaring a lead wolf with a Global Positioning System (GPS)/Argos radio collar. The collar recorded the wolf's precise locations at 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. daily and transmitted the locations by satellite to our email. Straight-line distances between consecutive 12-hr locations varied between 0 and 76 km. Mean (SE) linear distance between consecutive locations (n = 554) was 11 (0.5) km. Total minimum distance traveled was 5,979 km, and total area covered was 6,640 km2, the largest wolf range reported. The wolf and presumably his pack once made a 263-km (straight-line distance) foray to the southeast during 19-28 January 2010, returning 29 January to 1 February at an average of 41 km/day straight-line distances between 12-hr locations. This study produced the first detailed movement information about any large mammal in the High Arctic, and the average movements during the dark period did not differ from those afterwards. Wolf movements during the dark period in the highest latitudes match those of the other seasons and generally those of wolves in lower latitudes, and, at least with the gross movements measurable by our methods, the 4-month period without direct sunlight produced little change in movements. ?? 2011 Mech, Cluff.

Movements of wolves at the northern extreme of the species' range, including during four months of darkness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Cluff, H. Dean

2011-01-01

Information about wolf (Canis lupus) movements anywhere near the northern extreme of the species' range in the High Arctic (>75°N latitude) are lacking. There, wolves prey primarily on muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and must survive 4 months of 24 hr/day winter darkness and temperatures reaching -53 C. The extent to which wolves remain active and prey on muskoxen during the dark period are unknown, for the closest area where information is available about winter wolf movements is >2,250 km south. We studied a pack of ≥20 wolves on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (80°N latitude) from July 2009 through mid-April 2010 by collaring a lead wolf with a Global Positioning System (GPS)/Argos radio collar. The collar recorded the wolf's precise locations at 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. daily and transmitted the locations by satellite to our email. Straight-line distances between consecutive 12-hr locations varied between 0 and 76 km. Mean (SE) linear distance between consecutive locations (n = 554) was 11 (0.5) km. Total minimum distance traveled was 5,979 km, and total area covered was 6,640 km2, the largest wolf range reported. The wolf and presumably his pack once made a 263-km (straight-line distance) foray to the southeast during 19–28 January 2010, returning 29 January to 1 February at an average of 41 km/day straight-line distances between 12-hr locations. This study produced the first detailed movement information about any large mammal in the High Arctic, and the average movements during the dark period did not differ from those afterwards. Wolf movements during the dark period in the highest latitudes match those of the other seasons and generally those of wolves in lower latitudes, and, at least with the gross movements measurable by our methods, the 4-month period without direct sunlight produced little change in movements.

Dietary Intake, Body Composition, and Menstrual Cycle Changes during Competition Preparation and Recovery in a Drug-Free Figure Competitor: A Case Study

PubMed Central

Halliday, Tanya M.; Loenneke, Jeremy P.; Davy, Brenda M.

2016-01-01

Physique competitions are events in which competitors are judged on muscular appearance and symmetry. The purpose of this retrospective case study was to describe changes in dietary intake, body mass/composition, and the menstrual cycle during the 20-week competition preparation (PREP) and 20-week post competition recovery (REC) periods of a drug-free amateur female figure competitor (age = 26–27, BMI = 19.5 kg/m2). Dietary intake (via weighed food records) and body mass were assessed daily and averaged weekly. Body composition was estimated via Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and 7-site skinfold measurements. Energy intake, body mass and composition, and energy availability decreased during the 20-week PREP period (changes of ~298 kcals, 5.1 kg, 6.5% body fat, and 5.4 kcal/kg fat free mass, respectively) and returned to baseline values by end of the 20-week REC period. Menstrual cycle irregularity was reported within the first month of PREP and the last menstruation was reported at week 11 of PREP. Given the potentially adverse health outcomes associated with caloric restriction, future, prospective cohort studies on the physiological response to PREP and REC are warranted in drug-free, female physique competitors. PMID:27879627

Can Professional Environments in Schools Promote Teacher Development? Explaining Heterogeneity in Returns to Teaching Experience

PubMed Central

Kraft, Matthew A.; Papay, John P.

2014-01-01

Although wide variation in teacher effectiveness is well established, much less is known about differences in teacher improvement over time. We document that average returns to teaching experience mask large variation across individual teachers and across groups of teachers working in different schools. We examine the role of school context in explaining these differences using a measure of the professional environment constructed from teachers responses to state-wide surveys. Our analyses show that teachers working in more supportive professional environments improve their effectiveness more over time than teachers working in less supportive contexts. On average, teachers working in schools at the 75th percentile of professional environment ratings improved 38% more than teachers in schools at the 25th percentile after 10 years. PMID:25866426

Genetic adaptation to captivity can occur in a single generation

PubMed Central

Christie, Mark R.; Marine, Melanie L.; French, Rod A.; Blouin, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Captive breeding programs are widely used for the conservation and restoration of threatened and endangered species. Nevertheless, captive-born individuals frequently have reduced fitness when reintroduced into the wild. The mechanism for these fitness declines has remained elusive, but hypotheses include environmental effects of captive rearing, inbreeding among close relatives, relaxed natural selection, and unintentional domestication selection (adaptation to captivity). We used a multigenerational pedigree analysis to demonstrate that domestication selection can explain the precipitous decline in fitness observed in hatchery steelhead released into the Hood River in Oregon. After returning from the ocean, wild-born and first-generation hatchery fish were used as broodstock in the hatchery, and their offspring were released into the wild as smolts. First-generation hatchery fish had nearly double the lifetime reproductive success (measured as the number of returning adult offspring) when spawned in captivity compared with wild fish spawned under identical conditions, which is a clear demonstration of adaptation to captivity. We also documented a tradeoff among the wild-born broodstock: Those with the greatest fitness in a captive environment produced offspring that performed the worst in the wild. Specifically, captive-born individuals with five (the median) or more returning siblings (i.e., offspring of successful broodstock) averaged 0.62 returning offspring in the wild, whereas captive-born individuals with less than five siblings averaged 2.05 returning offspring in the wild. These results demonstrate that a single generation in captivity can result in a substantial response to selection on traits that are beneficial in captivity but severely maladaptive in the wild. PMID:22184236

Suture Button Fixation Treatment of Chronic Lisfranc Injury in Professional Dancers and High-Level Athletes.

PubMed

Charlton, Timothy; Boe, Chelsea; Thordarson, David B

2015-12-01

Chronic Lisfranc injury is a subtle and severe injury in high-level athletes, including dancers. This patient population is generally intolerant of intra-articular screw fixation and can develop significant post-traumatic arthritis with potentially career ending complications. Flexible fixation with suture-button devices provides potential restoration of physiologic motion at the joint, with appropriate support for healing that may facilitate return to en pointe activities for dancers. We hypothesized that the suture-button device would restore motion at the Lisfranc joint and allow for return to activities in this particular population without the limitations and complications of rigid fixation. We operated on seven dancers and high-level athletes with diagnosed Lisfranc injuries by installing a suture-button device. All patients had failed conservative management after late presentation. They were allowed to return to sport in 6 months, preoperative and postoperative American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Score (AOFAS) foot scores were obtained, and patients were followed for a minimum of 15 months. All seven returned to full activities in 6 months, with radiographic evidence of fixation and no complications to date. AOFAS foot scores improved from an average of 65 preoperatively to an average of 97 postoperatively at latest follow-up. It is concluded that flexible fixation with suture-button type device represents a viable alternative to screw fixation or fusion that may allow dancers and athletes to return to previous levels of activity after Lisfranc injury. This case series represents to our knowledge the first application of this device to a unique population that requires flexibility at the Lisfranc joint for performance.

Work and health, a blind spot in curative healthcare? A pilot study.

PubMed

Lötters, Freek J B; Foets, Marleen; Burdorf, Alex

2011-09-01

Most workers with musculoskeletal disorders on sick leave often consult with regular health care before entering a specific work rehabilitation program. However, it remains unclear to what extent regular healthcare contributes to the timely return to work (RTW). Moreover, several studies have indicated that it might postpone RTW. There is a need to establish the influence of regular healthcare on RTW as outcome; "Does visiting a regular healthcare provider influence the duration of sickness absence and recurrent sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders?". A cohort of workers on sick leave for 2-6 weeks due to a-specific musculoskeletal disorders was followed for 12 months. The main outcomes for the present analysis were: duration of sickness absence till 100% return to work and recurrent sick leave after initial RTW. Cox regression analyses were conducted with visiting a general health practitioner, physical therapist, or medical specialist during the sick leave period as independent variables. Each regression model was adjusted for variables known to influence health care utilization like age, sex, diagnostic group, pain intensity, functional disability, general health perception, severity of complaints, job control, and physical load at work. Patients visiting a medical specialist reported higher pain intensity and more functional limitations and also had a worse health perception at start of the sick leave period compared with those not visiting a specialist. Visiting a medical specialist delayed return to work significantly (HR = 2.10; 95%CI 1.43-3.07). After approximately 8 weeks on sick leave workers visiting a physical therapist returned to work faster than other workers. A recurrent episode of sick leave during the follow up quick was initiated by higher pain intensity and more functional limitations at the moment of fully return to work. Visiting a primary healthcare provider during the sickness absence period did not influence the occurrence of a new sick leave period. Despite the adjustment for severity of the musculoskeletal disorder, visiting a medical specialist was associated with a delayed full return to work. More attention to the factor 'labor' in the regular healthcare is warranted, especially for those patients experiencing substantial functional limitations due to musculoskeletal disorders.

Measuring the Earnings Returns to Lifelong Learning in the UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanden, Jo; Buscha, Franz; Sturgis, Patrick; Urwin, Peter

2012-01-01

This paper examines the earnings returns to learning that takes place following the conventional "school-to-work" stage of the life-course. We operationalise such "lifelong learning" as the attainment of certified qualifications in adulthood, following the completion of the first period of continuous full-time education. Using…

The management of pediatric subtrochanteric femur fractures with a statically locked intramedullary nail.

PubMed

Herrera-Soto, José A; Meuret, Robert; Phillips, Jonathan H; Vogel, Daniel J

2015-01-01

To evaluate locked intramedullary (IM) fixation as an alternative treatment method for children with subtrochanteric fractures. Retrospective review. Level 1 trauma center in a Children's Hospital. Pediatric patients with subtrochanteric femur fractures with open growth plates. All patients were treated with a lateral entry IM locking nail. Patients were followed until full fracture consolidation or until implant removal. Data on time to full weight bearing, return to full activity, residual pain, any form of gait abnormality, and any other complication from follow-up visits were collected. There were 9 males and 1 female patient with an average age of 12 years and average follow-up of 22 months. Most of the fractures occurred secondary to high-energy trauma. Partial weight bearing was started at 24 days and full at 66 days. Implants were removed on average at 11 months after implantation. There were neither intraoperative complications nor major complications in the postoperative period recorded after removal. Two patients presented with a longer limb on the affected side, both 8 mm, and 2 presented with asymptomatic grade I heterotopic ossification. The use of a statically locked lateral entry IM nail for subtrochanteric femur fractures in children is a safe and efficacious method of treatment with few complications and risks and satisfactory outcomes in children over the age of 8 years. Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Substantial sick-leave costs savings due to a graded activity intervention for workers with non-specific sub-acute low back pain.

PubMed

Hlobil, Hynek; Uegaki, Kimi; Staal, J Bart; de Bruyne, Martine C; Smid, Tjabe; van Mechelen, Willem

2007-07-01

The objective of this study is to compare the costs and benefits of a graded activity (GA) intervention to usual care (UC) for sick-listed workers with non-specific low back pain (LBP). The study is a single-blind, randomized controlled trial with 3-year follow-up. A total of 134 (126 men and 8 women) predominantly blue-collar workers, sick-listed due to LBP were recruited and randomly assigned to either GA (N = 67; mean age 39 +/- 9 years) or to UC (N = 67; mean age 37 +/- 8 years). The main outcome measures were the costs of health care utilization during the first follow-up year and the costs of productivity loss during the second and the third follow-up year. At the end of the first follow-up year an average investment for the GA intervention of 475 euros per worker, only 83 euros more than health care utilization costs in UC group, yielded an average savings of at least 999 euros (95% CI: -1,073; 3,115) due to a reduction in productivity loss. The potential cumulative savings were an average of 1,661 euros (95% CI: -4,154; 6,913) per worker over a 3-year follow-up period. It may be concluded that the GA intervention for non-specific LBP is a cost-beneficial return-to-work intervention.

Monitoring worksite clinic performance using a cost-benefit tool.

PubMed

Tao, Xuguang; Chenoweth, David; Alfriend, Amy S; Baron, David M; Kirkland, Tracie W; Scherb, Jill; Bernacki, Edward J

2009-10-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the usefulness of continuously assessing the return on investment (ROI) of worksite medical clinics as a means of evaluating clinic performance. Visit data from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2008, were collected from all the on-site clinics operated for the Pepsi Bottling Group. An average system-wide ROI was calculated from the time of each clinic's opening and throughout the study period. A multivariate linear regression model was used to determine the association of average ROI with penetration/utilization rate and plant size. A total of 26 on-site clinics were actively running as of December 2008. The average ROI at the time of start up was 0.4, which increased to 1.2 at approximately 4 months and 1.6 at the end of the first year of operation. Overall, it seems that the cost of operating a clinic becomes equal to the cost of similar care purchased in the community (ROI = 1) at approximately 3 months after a clinic's opening and flattens out at the end of the first year. The magnitude of the ROI was closely related to the number of visits (a function of the penetration/utilization rate) and the size of the plant population served. Serial monitoring of ROIs is a useful metric in assessing on-site clinic performance and quantifying the effect of new initiatives aimed at increasing a clinic's cost effectiveness.

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.