On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

The electric storm of November 1882

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2018-01-01

In November 1882, an intense magnetic storm related to a large sunspot group caused widespread interference to telegraph and telephone systems and provided spectacular and unusual auroral displays. The (ring current) storm time disturbance index for this storm reached maximum −Dst ≈ 386 nT, comparable to Halloween storm of 29–31 October 2003, but from 17 to 20 November the aa midlatitude geomagnetic disturbance index averaged 214.25 nT, the highest 4 day level of disturbance since the beginning of aa index in 1868. This storm contributed to scientists' understanding of the reality of solar‐terrestrial interaction. Past occurrences of magnetic storms, like that of November 1882, can inform modern evaluations of the deleterious effects that a magnetic superstorm might have on technological systems of importance to society.

Solar radio continuum storms and a breathing magnetic field model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Radio noise continuum emissions observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies are, in general, associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. These continuum emission sources, often called type I storm sources, are often associated with type III burst storm activity from metric to hectometric wave frequencies. This storm activity is, therefore, closely connected with the development of these continuum emission sources. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally precedes, by several days, the emission of these noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. In order for these storms to develop, the growth of sunspot groups into complex types is very important in addition to the increase of the average magnetic field intensity and area of these groups. After giving a review on the theory of these noise continuum storm emissions, a model is briefly considered to explain the relation of the emissions to the storms.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz) Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Ga-Hee

2011-06-01

It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are divided into three types, which are coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven storms, co-rotating interaction region (CIR)-driven storms, and complicated type storms. Complicated types were not included in this study. For this purpose, the manner in which the direction change of IMF By and Bz components (in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system coordinate) during the main phase is related with the development of the storm is examined. The time-integrated solar wind parameters are compared with the time-integrated disturbance storm time (Dst) index during the main phase of each magnetic storm. The time lag with the storm size is also investigated. Some results are worth noting: CME-driven storms, under steady conditions of Bz < 0, represent more than half of the storms in number. That is, it is found that the average number of storms for negative sign of IMF Bz (T1~T4) is high, at 56.4%, 53.0%, and 63.7% in each storm category, respectively. However, for the CIR-driven storms, the percentage of moderate storms is only 29.2%, while the number of intense storms is more than half (60.0%) under the Bz < 0 condition. It is found that the correlation is highest between the time-integrated IMF Bz and the time-integrated Dst index for the CME-driven storms. On the other hand, for the CIR-driven storms, a high correlation is found, with the correlation coefficient being 0.93, between time-integrated Dst index and time-integrated solar wind speed, while a low correlation, 0.51, is found between timeintegrated Bz and time-integrated Dst index. The relationship between storm size and time lag in terms of hours from Bz minimum to Dst minimum values is investigated. For the CME-driven storms, time lag of 26% of moderate storms is one hour, whereas time lag of 33% of moderate storms is two hours for the CIR-driven storms. The average values of solar wind parameters for the CME and CIR-driven storms are also examined. The average values of |Dstmin| and |Bzmin| for the CME-driven storms are higher than those of CIR-driven storms, while the average value of temperature is lower.

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, S.H.; Gartner, J.E.; Wilson, R.C.; Bowers, J.C.; Laber, J.L.

2008-01-01

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings. Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10??min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3??h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1??h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D-??0.7 and I = 9.5D-??0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours). Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16??h, of low-intensity (2-10??mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33??h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4??mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D-0.4, and I = 7.2D-0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D-0.5 is approximately 25??mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires. The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes. Crown Copyright ?? 2007.

The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavender, Sally L.; Hoeke, Ron K.; Abbs, Deborah J.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) result in widespread damage associated with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. TC Yasi was one of the most powerful TCs to impact the Queensland coast since records began. Prior to Yasi, the SSTs in the Coral Sea were higher than average by 1-2 °C, primarily due to the 2010/2011 La Niña event. In this study, a conceptually simple idealised sensitivity analysis is performed using a high-resolution regional model to gain insight into the influence of SST on the track, size, intensity and associated rainfall of TC Yasi. A set of nine simulations with uniform SST anomalies of between -4 and 4 °C applied to the observed SSTs are analysed. The resulting surface winds and pressure are used to force a barotropic storm surge model to examine the influence of SST on the associated storm surge of TC Yasi. An increase in SST results in an increase in intensity, precipitation and integrated kinetic energy of the storm; however, there is little influence on track prior to landfall. In addition to an increase in precipitation, there is a change in the spatial distribution of precipitation as the SST increases. Decreases in SSTs result in an increase in the radius of maximum winds due to an increase in the asymmetry of the storm, although the radius of gale-force winds decreases. These changes in the TC characteristics also lead to changes in the associated storm surge. Generally, cooler (warmer) SSTs lead to reduced (enhanced) maximum storm surges. However, the increase in surge reaches a maximum with an increase in SST of 2 °C. Any further increase in SST does not affect the maximum surge but the total area and duration of the simulated surge increases with increasing upper ocean temperatures. A large decrease in maximum storm surge height occurs when a negative SST anomaly is applied, suggesting if TC Yasi had occurred during non-La Niña conditions the associated storm surge may have been greatly diminished, with a decrease in storm surge height of over 3 m when the SST is reduced by 2 °C. In summary, increases in SST lead to an increase in the potential destructiveness of TCs with regard to intensity, precipitation and storm surge, although this relationship is not linear.

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-04-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951-2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September-November PD/TGS and an increase in December-February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades.

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951–2010

PubMed Central

Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-01-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September–November PD/TGS and an increase in December–February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades. PMID:28401947

Precipitation records and flood-producing storms in Cheyenne, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.

1988-01-01

Annual maximum precipitation data for Cheyenne, Wyoming, are presented for the years 1871-1986 for durations of 5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes and 1, 2, and 24 hours. Precipitation-frequency curves are developed on the basis of data collected before 1985; a second set of curves are developed on the basis of data collected through 1986. The data are plotted and analyzed three times, assuming: (1) The data are described by a Gumbel distribution; (2) the logarithms of the data are described by a Gumbel distribution; and (3) the logarithms of the data are described by a Pearson Type III distribution. The inclusion of data for the large storm of August 1, 1985, had the most noticeable effect on the prediction of the magnitude of storms of long average recurrence intervals for the 1-, 2-, and 24-hour durations. Seven intensity-duration curves were calculated for the August 1, 1985 storm. For durations greater than 30 minutes, the observed curve indicates greater intensity than do five of the seven calculated curves. Dimensionless hyetographs were developed for 10 flood-producing storms that have occurred in the Cheyenne area since 1903. The pattern index (integral of the dimensionless hyetograph curve) for the storm of August 1, 1985, is 3 standard deviations lower than the mean of the pattern indices for the remaining 9 storms, indicating that the distribution of precipitation with time for the August 1, 1985, storm was outside the normal range for Cheyenne. (USGS)

A Process-Based Insight into the Severity of 'Super' Storm Desmond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Tom; Murphy, Conor; Gerard, McCarthy; Rob, Wilby

2017-04-01

Climate warming is projected to increase winter rainfall and societally-impactful flood frequency across the British-Irish Isles (BI). The dynamical explanation for this change is linked to the North Atlantic (NA) storm track, with projections indicating both an enhanced frequency of wintertime extratropical cyclones ('cyclones'), and an increase in their average precipitation. The latter is, in part, a result of more intense moisture transport in cyclones' warm sectors by 'Atmospheric Rivers' (ARs), thermodynamically-driven by enhanced absolute humidity consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. It is against this backdrop that we scrutinise the physical drivers of the record-breaking rain and flood event associated with 'Storm Desmond' in December, 2015. We find that more than 3,500 km2 experienced rainfall in excess of the mean annual maximum during the storm's passage. The exceptional rain amounts were due to an AR more intense than any other in our observational record (1979-2015). However, we find that its unparalleled strength was as much a consequence of strong wind speeds as high humidity, so its severity cannot be attributed so simply to climate warming. This position is made clearer through a Lagrangian air mass tracking procedure, where we show that most (67%) of the moisture that precipitated out over BI during Desmond's passage evaporated from sea surfaces that were cooler than their 1951-1980 average. We therefore conclude that 1) the process-based observational approach applied here can provide valuable insight into climate change attribution assessments; and 2) Storm Desmond - despite being the most severe on record - was perhaps moderated by the anomalously cool NA sea-surface temperatures, which may have suppressed evaporation and vapour transport. The capacity for an even more impactful AR should SSTs in the sub-polar NA return to even their 20th Century averages, given otherwise identical synoptic circulation, should therefore be appreciated by planners and policy makers alike.

Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2001-01-01

Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for 'named storms,' tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity, marked by seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates. As an example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. Also, the 10-year moving average for tropical storms has more than doubled, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of three or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their respective 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, a response to the abrupt increase in seasonal rates that occurred in 1995. Taken together, the outlook for future hurricane seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

Prominent November Coldwaves in the North Central United States Since 1901.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendland, Wayne M.

1987-06-01

The frequency and intensity of early winter (November) coldwaves were investigated for the north central United States. Twenty-two such storms occurred from 1901 to 1985, and were most frequent in the 1950s and early 1960s, and again from the mid 1970s to the present.November coldwaves are most often the result of Colorado cyclones moving to the cast northeast. On average, temperature declines of 22°C or more within 24 hours, falling to at least 0°C, impacted about 40 percent of the 12-state region. The storms were most often accompanied by strong winds, wind chill, heavy snow to the west, and thunderstorms to the cast, i.e., the trappings of a severe winter storm. Many of these storms inflicted severe damage on land and on the Great Lakes, sometimes taking lives of those not anticipating such a severe "winter" storm in November.

Geomagnetic storm effects on the occurrences of ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaechi, P. O.; Oyeyemi, E. O.; Akala, A. O.

2018-04-01

The study investigated the effects of intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 on the occurrences of large scale ionospheric irregularities over the African equatorial/low-latitude region. Four major/intense geomagnetic storms of 2015 were analyzed for this study. These storms occurred on 17th March 2015 (-229 nT), 22nd June 2015 (-204 nT), 7th October 2015 (-124 nT), and 20th December 2015 (-170 nT). Total Electron Content (TEC) data obtained from five African Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations, grouped into eastern and western sectors were used to derive the ionospheric irregularities proxy indices, e.g., rate of change of TEC (ROT), ROT index (ROTI) and ROTI daily average (ROTIAVE). These indices were characterized alongside with the disturbance storm time (Dst), the Y component of the Interplanetary Electric Field (IEFy), polar cap (PC) index and the H component of the Earth's magnetic field from ground-based magnetometers. Irregularities manifested in the form of fluctuations in TEC. Prompt penetration of electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) modulated the behaviour of irregularities during the main and recovery phases of the geomagnetic storms. The effect of electric field over both sectors depends on the local time of southward turning of IMF Bz. Consequently, westward electric field inhibited irregularities during the main phase of March and October 2015 geomagnetic storms, while for the June 2015 storm, eastward electric field triggered weak irregularities over the eastern sector. The effect of electric field on irregularities during December 2015 storm was insignificant. During the recovery phase of the storms, westward DDEF suppressed irregularities.

Some characteristics of intense geomagnetic storms and their energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vichare, Geeta; Alex, S.; Lakhina, G. S.

2005-03-01

The present study analyses nine intense geomagnetic storms (∣Dst∣ > 175 nT) with the aid of ACE satellite measurements and ground magnetic field values at Alibag Magnetic Observatory. The study confirms the crucial role of southward IMF in triggering the storm main phase as well as controlling the magnitude of the storm. The main phase interval shows clear dependence on the duration of southward IMF. An attempt is made to identify the multipeak signature in the ring current energy injection rate during main phase of the storm. In order to quantify the energy budget of magnetic storms, the present paper computes the solar wind energies, magnetospheric coupling energies, auroral and Joule heating energies, and the ring current energies for each storm under examination. Computation of the solar wind- magnetosphere coupling function considers the variation of the size of the magnetosphere by using the measured solar wind ram pressure. During the main phase of the storm, the solar wind kinetic energy ranges from 9 × 1017 to 72 × 1017 J with an average of 30 × 1017 J; the total energy dissipated in the auroral ionosphere varies between 2 × 1015 and 9 × 1015 J, whereas ring current energies range from 8 × 1015 to 19 × 1015 J. For the total storm period, about 3.5% of total solar wind kinetic energy is available for the redistribution in the magnetosphere, and around 20% of this goes into the inner magnetosphere and in the auroral ionosphere of both the hemispheres. It is found that during main phase of the storm, almost 5% of the total solar wind kinetic energy is available for the redistribution in the magnetosphere, whereas during the recovery phase the percentage becomes 2.3%.

Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

2013-05-01

The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one, which aim to better manage the coastal area and reduce its vulnerability to hurricanes. References Bretschneider, C.L., 1990. Tropical Cyclones. Handbook of Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Gulf Publishing Co., Vol. 1, 249-370. Holland, G.L., 1980. An analytical model of wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108, 1212-1218. Posada, G., Silva, R. & de Brye, S. 2008. Three dimensional hydrodynamic model with multiquadtree meshes. American Journal of Environmental Sciences. 4(3): 209-222. Silva, R., Govaere, G., Salles, P., Bautista, G. & Díaz, G. 2002. Oceanographic vulnerability to hurricanes on the Mexican coast. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, pp. 39-51.

Tropical Cyclone Evolution and Water and Energy Fluxes: A Hurricane Katrina Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinheiro, M. C.; Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Tropical cyclones are a highly destructive force of nature, characterized by extreme precipitation levels and wind speeds and heavy flooding. There are concerns that climate change will cause changes in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Therefore, the quantification of the water and energy fluxes that occur during a tropical cyclone's life cycle are important for anticipating the magnitude of damages that are likely to occur. This study used HURDAT2 storm track information and data from the satellite-derived SeaFlux and TRMM products to determine changes in precipitation, wind, and latent and sensible heat throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Katrina. The variables were examined along and around the storm track, taking averages both at stationary 5x5 degree boxes and within the instantaneous hurricane domain. Analysis focused on contributions of convergence and latent heat to the storm evolution and examined how the total flux was related to the storm intensity. Certain features, such as the eye, were not resolved due to the data resolution, but the data captures the general trend of enhanced flux levels that are due to the storm's presence. Analysis also included examination of the water and energy budgets as related to convergence and the sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Characteristics of ionospheric storms in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao; Wang, Guojun; Shi, Jiankui

The ionosphere experiences intense response during the geomagnetic storm and it varies with latitude and longitude. The DPS-4 digisonde measurements and GPS-TEC data of ionospheric stations located at different latitudes in the longitudinal sector of 90-130E during 2002 to 2012 were analyzed to investigate the ionospheric effects in the different latitude of East Asia during geomagnetic storm. About 70 geomagnetic storms are selected according to the Dst index and observed data and they are in different seasons and different solar activity levels. A few quiet days’ averages of data before geomagnetic storm were used as the undisturbed level. Results show that for the middle and high latitude, the short-lived positive disturbance associated with the initial phase of the every storm was observed in each season and then the disturbances were negative till the termination of storm. At the low latitude, storm-time disturbances of foF2 have obvious diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle characteristics. Generally, geomagnetic activity will cause foF2 to increase at daytime and decrease at nighttime except for the summer in low solar activity period. The intensity of response of foF2 is stronger at nighttime than that at daytime. The negative ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in summer and the positive ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in winter. In high solar activity period, the diurnal variation of the response of foF2 is very pronounced in each season, and the strong ionospheric response can last several days. In low solar activity period, ionospheric response has very pronounced diurnal variation in winter only. It’s notable that geomagnetic activities occurred at local time nighttime can cause stronger and longer responses of foF2 at the low latitude. All in all, the obvious negative phase ionospheric storms often occurred at the low latitude. Moreover a notable phenomenon was observed for the low latitude, there are the intensive oscillations of foF2 occurring during the main storm phase of enhanced storm in Hainan, and it occurred in the morning generally. For the TEC data, strong disturbances can be observed simultaneously from high latitude to low latitude during the main phase of some storms. Generally strong/weak storms can cause the negative/positive phase storms of TEC in the low latitude and which are obvious in the daytime for the summer and winter and in the period from noon to midnight for the equinox. The differences of the responses of foF2 and TEC are also investigated.

Pulsing Inertial Oscillation, Supercell Storms, and Surface Mesonetwork Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costen, R. C.; Miller, L. J.

1998-01-01

The pulsing inertial oscillation (PIO) model is a nonlinear, time-dependent, translating vortex solution of the inviscid, compressible fluid dynamic equations in the middle troposphere. The translation of this vortex during a pulse is strikingly similar to that of a supercell storm -- a rotating thunderstorm that can generate tornadoes and hail. Two studies were performed to test the hypothesis that some supercell storms are manifestations of a PIO pulse. The first study applied the model to an intense interior draft whose buoyancy was bounded by a temperature excess of +/- 12 K. The peak updraft speed achieved was 41.5 m/ s and the peak Rossby number was 92.9. The study also pointed to an advanced concept for attaining higher values. The second study applied the PIO model to a supercell storm as a whole and succeeded in replicating its bulk properties, such as mesocyclonic circulation, net mass and moisture influxes, and time track. This study also identified a critical feature of the PIO model that could be tested against storm data: The average vertical draft is downward before the turn in the storm track and upward afterwards. In the conventional theory, the average vertical draft is upward from storm inception until dissipation. These differing draft predictions were compared with the best available data, which are surface mesonetwork data. These data were found to support the PIO model. However, surface data alone are not conclusive, and further measurements are warranted.

Characteristics of the most intense lightning storm ever recorded at the CN Tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussein, A. M.; Kazazi, S.; Anwar, M.; Yusouf, M.; Liatos, P.

2017-02-01

Lightning strikes to the CN Tower have been optically observed since 1978. In 1990, five independent systems started to operate to simultaneously record parameters of lightning strikes to the tower, including the time derivative of the current, the associated electric and magnetic fields, and the channel optical characteristics. On August 24, 2011, during an unusually severe lightning storm, video records showed that the CN Tower was struck with 52 lightning flashes within 84 min and 6.9 s. Thus, this storm produced, on average, a flash to the tower every 99 s. However, the CN Tower lightning current derivative measurement system only recorded 32 flashes, which were perfectly time-matched with 32 of the 52 video-recorded flashes. It is found that the current derivative measurement system recorded every video-recorded flash that contained at least one return stroke. Based on the analysis of video records, it is noted that each of the storm's 52 flashes contains an initial-stage current, proving that all flashes were upward initiated. This unique CN Tower storm - the most intense ever recorded at the tower - is here thoroughly analyzed, based on video and current records. The inter-flash time within the storm is found to vary between 10.6 s and 274 s, with an overall average of 98 s. It is also found that the inter-flash time between successive non-return-stroke flashes is on average 64% longer than that for successive flashes containing return strokes. Statistical analysis of video and current data clearly reveals that the time duration of flashes containing initial-stage currents and return strokes is on average 27% longer than that of flashes that only have initial-stage currents. Furthermore, it is important to note that the time duration of the initial-stage current in flashes containing no return strokes is on average 76% longer than that in flashes containing return strokes. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that if the time duration of the initial-stage current in a flash is long enough, resulting in large charge transfer, then there is less probability of having return strokes following it. The 32 current-recorded flashes contain a total of 156 return strokes, with an average multiplicity of 4.875. It is worth mentioning that during one decade, 1992-2001, the CN Tower current derivative measurement system only recorded 478 return strokes, demonstrating that the number of return strokes recorded at the tower within about 84 min is close to one third of those recorded at the tower during one decade. This finding clearly shows the great value and rarity of the presented extensive lightning current derivative data. Only one of the 32 current-recorded flashes is proved to be positive with a single return stroke. Based on current records, out of a total of 124 inter-stroke time intervals, 94% are found to be within 200 ms, with an overall inter-stroke time average of 68.1 ms. The maximum inter-stroke time recorded during this storm is 726.3 ms, the longest ever recorded at the CN Tower.

Isotopic Variability in Central Valley Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keene, D.; Sowers, T.; Wagner, A. J.

2017-12-01

Wintertime precipitation in the Sacramento Valley is characterized by two regimes: northerly storms generated by the polar jet stream and southerly storms generated by subtropical atmospheric rivers (ARs). Polar jet stream storms account for the majority of storm activity in the central valley, but the amount of subtropical moisture available for transport tends to increase during El Niño years. However, during the El Niño of 2015-2016, California continued to experience drought conditions with the Sacramento area receiving below average wintertime precipitation. Although the 2016-2017 winter was not an El Niño year, the Sacramento area received more than 190% of its average precipitation from ARs in the opening months of 2017. While this suggests that ARs are a significant part of California's hydrologic cycle independent of El Niño, it has not been established whether these storms have an isotopically distinct signature compared to those generated by the polar jet stream or if their signature covaries with ENSO. To investigate the potential isotopic variability of ARs, rainwater was collected over a period of three years in the Sacramento Valley and the surrounding areas and analyzed for δD and δ18O. Since El Niño is generally considered to cause an increase in the amount of available subtropical moisture delivered to the Sacramento valley, we would expect precipitation during those years to be less depleted than precipitation in non-El Niño years. On average, δD and δ18O values of precipitation during the 2015-2016 winter were not significantly different compared to precipitation from 2016-2017 even though 2016-2017 was dominated by historic amounts of AR rainfall. This suggests that the frequency and intensity of atmospheric river storm events may not be intimately linked with the ENSO cycle.

Probability of occurrence of planetary ionosphere storms associated with the magnetosphere disturbance storm time events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Stanislawska, I.

2014-11-01

The ionospheric W index allows to distinguish state of the ionosphere and plasmasphere from quiet conditions (W = 0 or ±1) to intense storm (W = ±4) ranging the plasma density enhancements (positive phase) or plasma density depletions (negative phase) regarding the quiet ionosphere. The global W index maps are produced for a period 1999-2014 from Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, designed by Jet Propulson Laboratory, converted from geographic frame (-87.5:2.5:87.5° in latitude, -180:5:180° in longitude) to geomagnetic frame (-85:5:85° in magnetic latitude, -180:5:180° in magnetic longitude). The probability of occurrence of planetary ionosphere storm during the magnetic disturbance storm time, Dst, event is evaluated with the superposed epoch analysis for 77 intense storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and 230 moderate storms (-100 < Dst ≤ -50 nT) with start time, t0, defined at Dst storm main phase onset. It is found that the intensity of negative storm, iW-, exceeds the intensity of positive storm, iW+, by 1.5-2 times. An empirical formula of iW+ and iW- in terms of peak Dst is deduced exhibiting an opposite trends of relation of intensity of ionosphere-plasmasphere storm with regard to intensity of Dst storm.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jakob, Christian

This report summarises an investigation into the relationship of tropical thunderstorms to the atmospheric conditions they are embedded in. The study is based on the use of radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in Darwin run under the auspices of the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research program. Linking the larger scales of the atmosphere with the smaller scales of thunderstorms is crucial for the development of the representation of thunderstorms in weather and climate models, which is carried out by a process termed parametrisation. Through the analysis of radar and wind profiler observations the project made several fundamental discoveriesmore » about tropical storms and quantified the relationship of the occurrence and intensity of these storms to the large-scale atmosphere. We were able to show that the rainfall averaged over an area the size of a typical climate model grid-box is largely controlled by the number of storms in the area, and less so by the storm intensity. This allows us to completely rethink the way we represent such storms in climate models. We also found that storms occur in three distinct categories based on their depth and that the transition between these categories is strongly related to the larger scale dynamical features of the atmosphere more so than its thermodynamic state. Finally, we used our observational findings to test and refine a new approach to cumulus parametrisation which relies on the stochastic modelling of the area covered by different convective cloud types.« less

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

PubMed

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-06-01

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Hurricanes 2004: An overview of their characteristics and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger, Asbury H.; Stockdon, Hilary; Fauver, Laura A.; Hansen, Mark; Thompson, David; Wright, C. Wayne; Lillycrop, Jeff

2006-01-01

Four hurricanes battered the state of Florida during 2004, the most affecting any state since Texas endured four in 1884. Each of the storms changed the coast differently. Average shoreline change within the right front quadrant of hurricane force winds varied from 1 m of shoreline advance to 20 m of retreat, whereas average sand volume change varied from 11 to 66 m3 m−1 of net loss (erosion). These changes did not scale simply with hurricane intensity as described by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The strongest storm of the season, category 4 Hurricane Charley, had the least shoreline retreat. This was likely because of other factors like the storm's rapid forward speed and small size that generated a lower storm surge than expected. Two of the storms, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, affected nearly the same area on the Florida east coast just 3 wk apart. The first storm, Frances, although weaker than the second, caused greater shoreline retreat and sand volume erosion. As a consequence, Hurricane Frances may have stripped away protective beach and exposed dunes to direct wave attack during Jeanne, although there was significant dune erosion during both storms. The maximum shoreline change for all four hurricanes occurred during Ivan on the coasts of eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The net volume change across a barrier island within the Ivan impact zone approached zero because of massive overwash that approximately balanced erosion of the beach. These data from the 2004 hurricane season will prove useful in developing new ways to scale and predict coastal-change effects during hurricanes.

Cloudsat tropical cyclone database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourville, Natalie D.

CloudSat (CS), the first 94 GHz spaceborne cloud profiling radar (CPR), launched in 2006 to study the vertical distribution of clouds. Not only are CS observations revealing inner vertical cloud details of water and ice globally but CS overpasses of tropical cyclones (TC's) are providing a new and exciting opportunity to study the vertical structure of these storm systems. CS TC observations are providing first time vertical views of TC's and demonstrate a unique way to observe TC structure remotely from space. Since December 2009, CS has intersected every globally named TC (within 1000 km of storm center) for a total of 5,278 unique overpasses of tropical systems (disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon/cyclone (HTC)). In conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), each CS TC overpass is processed into a data file containing observational data from the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-TRAIN), Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model and best track storm data. This study will describe the components and statistics of the CS TC database, present case studies of CS TC overpasses with complementary A-TRAIN observations and compare average reflectivity stratifications of TC's across different atmospheric regimes (wind shear, SST, latitude, maximum wind speed and basin). Average reflectivity stratifications reveal that characteristics in each basin vary from year to year and are dependent upon eye overpasses of HTC strength storms and ENSO phase. West Pacific (WPAC) basin storms are generally larger in size (horizontally and vertically) and have greater values of reflectivity at a predefined height than all other basins. Storm structure at higher latitudes expands horizontally. Higher vertical wind shear (≥ 9.5 m/s) reduces cloud top height (CTH) and the intensity of precipitation cores, especially in HTC strength storms. Average zero and ten dBZ height thresholds confirm WPAC storms loft precipitation sized particles higher into the atmosphere than in other basins. Two CS eye overpasses (32 hours apart) of a weakening Typhoon Nida in 2009 reveal the collapse of precipitation cores, warm core anomaly and upper tropospheric ice water content (IWC) under steady moderate shear conditions.

Impact of Superstorm Sandy on Medicare Patients' Utilization of Hospitals and Emergency Departments.

PubMed

Stryckman, Benoit; Walsh, Lauren; Carr, Brendan G; Hupert, Nathaniel; Lurie, Nicole

2017-10-01

National health security requires that healthcare facilities be prepared to provide rapid, effective emergency and trauma care to all patients affected by a catastrophic event. We sought to quantify changes in healthcare utilization patterns for an at-risk Medicare population before, during, and after Superstorm Sandy's 2012 landfall in New Jersey (NJ). This study is a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries impacted by Superstorm Sandy. We compared hospital emergency department (ED) and healthcare facility inpatient utilization in the weeks before and after Superstorm Sandy landfall using a 20% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries continuously enrolled in 2011 and 2012 (N=224,116). Outcome measures were pre-storm discharges (or transfers), average length of stay, service intensity weight, and post-storm ED visits resulting in either discharge or hospital admission. In the pre-storm week, hospital transfers from skilled nursing facilities (SNF) increased by 39% and inpatient discharges had a 0.3 day decreased mean length of stay compared to the prior year. In the post-storm week, ED visits increased by 14% statewide; of these additional "surge" patients, 20% were admitted to the hospital. The increase in ED demand was more than double the statewide average in the most highly impacted coastal regions (35% versus 14%). Superstorm Sandy impacted both pre- and post-storm patient movement in New Jersey; post-landfall ED surge was associated with overall storm impact, which was greatest in coastal counties. A significant increase in the number and severity of pre-storm transfer patients, in particular from SNF, as well as in post-storm ED visits and inpatient admissions, draws attention to the importance of collaborative regional approaches to healthcare in large-scale events.

Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ji, Eun-Young; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Lee, D.-H.

2012-01-01

We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes,more » manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the forest over the long-term. The carbon loss from each hurricane event, in all scenarios, always recovered over sufficient time. Our results suggest that subtropical dry forests will remain resilient to hurricane disturbance. However carbon stocks will decrease if future climates increase hurricane frequency by 50% or more.« less

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

2017-02-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the forest over the long-term. The carbon loss from each hurricane event, in all scenarios, always recovered over sufficient time. Our results suggest that subtropical dry forests will remain resilient to hurricane disturbance. However carbon stocks will decrease if future climates increase hurricane frequency by 50% or more.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

DOE PAGES

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; ...

2017-02-07

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes,more » manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the forest over the long-term. The carbon loss from each hurricane event, in all scenarios, always recovered over sufficient time. Our results suggest that subtropical dry forests will remain resilient to hurricane disturbance. However carbon stocks will decrease if future climates increase hurricane frequency by 50% or more.« less

Forest structure and light regimes following moderate wind storms: implications for multi-cohort management.

PubMed

Hanson, Jacob J; Lorimer, Craig G

2007-07-01

Moderate-severity disturbances appear to be common throughout much of North America, but they have received relatively little detailed study compared to catastrophic disturbances and small gap dynamics. In this study, we examined the immediate impact of moderate-intensity wind storms on stand structure, opening sizes, and light regimes in three hemlock-hardwood forests of northeastern Wisconsin. These were compared to three stands managed by single-tree and group selection, the predominant forest management system for northern hardwoods in the region. Wind storms removed an average of 41% of the stand basal area, compared to 27% removed by uneven-aged harvests, but both disturbances removed trees from a wide range of size classes. The removal of nearly half of the large trees by wind in two old-growth stands caused partial retrogression to mature forest structure, which has been hypothesized to be a major disturbance pathway in the region. Wind storms resulted in residual stand conditions that were much more heterogeneous than in managed stands. Gap sizes ranged from less than 10 m2 up to 5000 m2 in wind-disturbed stands, whereas the largest opening observed in managed stands was only 200 m2. Wind-disturbed stands had, on average, double the available solar radiation at the forest floor compared to managed stands. Solar radiation levels were also more heterogeneous in wind-disturbed stands, with six times more variability at small scales (0.1225 ha) and 15 times more variability at the whole-stand level. Modification of uneven-aged management regimes to include occasional harvests of variable intensity and spatial pattern may help avoid the decline in species diversity that tends to occur after many decades of conventional uneven-aged management. At the same time, a multi-cohort system with these properties would retain a high degree of average crown cover, promote structural heterogeneity typical of old-growth forests, and maintain dominance by late-successional species.

Volumetric analysis and hydrologic characterization of a modern debris flow near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, J.A.; Glancy, P.A.; Whitney, J.W.

1997-01-01

On July 21 or 22, 1984, debris flows triggered by rainfall occurred on the southern hillslope of Jake Ridge, about 6 km east of the crest of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Rain gages near Jake Ridge recorded 65 mm and 69 mm on July 21, and 20 mm and 17 mm on July 22. Rates of rainfall intensity ranged up to 73 mm/h on the twenty-first, and 15 mm/h on the twenty-second. Digital elevation models with 2.0 m grid-node spacing, measured from pre-storm and post-storm aerial stereo-photographs, were used to map hillslope erosion and the downslope distribution of debris. Volumetric calculations indicate that about 7040 m3 of debris was redistributed on the 49,132 m2 hillslope study area during the two-day storm period. About 4580 m3 (65%) of the eroded sediment was deposited within the study area and the remaining 35% was deposited outside the study area in a short tributary to Fortymile Wash and in the wash itself. The maximum and mean depths of erosion in the study area were about 1.8 m and 5 cm, respectively. The mean depths of erosion on the upper and middle hillslope were 27 cm and 4 cm, respectively. The mean depth of deposition on the lower hillslope was 16 cm. Analysis of the values of cumulative precipitation in the context of the precipitation-frequency atlas of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that precipitation from the main storm on July 21 was more than double that expected, on average, once during a 100-year period. The relations of precipitation intensity/duration, developed from data recorded at a nearby precipitation gage, indicate a storm interval of 500 years or greater. The amount of erosion caused by such a storm is primarily dependent on three variables: storm intensity, development of the drainage network on the hillslope, and the amount of available colluvium. Additionally, the erosive ability of successive storms of equal intensity will decrease because such storms would tend to progressively isolate and reduce the amount of colluvium available. The preservation of Pleistocene deposits on hillslopes of Yucca Mountain, in general, indicates that erosional events that strip 5% of the available hillslope colluvium must be quite rare. We conclude that the recurrence interval of an erosional event comparable to the July, 1984 event is probably much longer than 500 years.

Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.

2010-12-01

Since 1969, the California Geological Survey has produced numerous maps showing landslide features and delineating potential slope-stability problem areas. These maps have been provided to local governments to encourage consideration of landslide hazards in planning and development decisions. Maps produced from 1986 through 1995 under the Landslide Hazard Mapping Act were advisory only, and their use by local government was never consistent. By contrast, maps of Zones of Required Investigation for seismically induced landslides produced under the Seismic Hazard Zoning Act since 1997 come with detailed guidelines and legal requirements. A legislative act that required landslide hazards be mapped and hazard maps disseminated to local government proved ineffective in landslide hazard mitigation. A later act with requirements that the hazard zone maps be used by local government proved more effective. Planning scenarios have proven to be an effective way of transmitting scientific information about natural hazards to emergency response professionals. Numerous earthquake planning scenarios have been prepared and used as the basis for emergency response exercises. An advantage of scenarios that include loss estimates is that the effects can be put in units of measure that everyone understands, principally deaths and dollars. HAZUS software available from FEMA allows calculation of losses for earthquake scenarios, but similar methods for landslides have not been developed. As part of the USGS Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project, we have estimated the landslide losses for a major west-coast winter storm scenario by developing a system based loosely on HAZUS. Data on landslide damage in past storms has been sparse and inconsistent, but a few data sets are available. The most detailed and complete available data on landslide damage was gathered by the City of Los Angeles following the 1978 storms. We extrapolate from that data to the entire state by first generalizing a landslide susceptibility map to give a single value of susceptibility for each census tract. We then calculated the loss ratio, the cost of landslide damage from the 1978 storms divided by the value of light wood frame structures in the census tract. The comparison suggests three general categories of damage: tracts with low landslide susceptibility have no landslide damage: tracts with moderate susceptibility have loss ratios of about 0.016%: and tracts with high susceptibility have loss ratios of 0.096%. Using these values, the susceptibility map becomes a landslide loss ratio map for the average storm intensity and landslide vulnerability of Los Angeles in 1978. Generalization to other storm intensities uses differences in storm intensity and landslide damage data from the 1982 storm in the Bay Area. In Santa Cruz County, that storm had a recurrence interval of over 100 years, and over 3 times the damage as our projection from the 1978 data. In Sonoma County, that storm had a recurrence interval of only 10 years and damage that was only 2% of our projection. If a relationship between storm intensity and the projections from the 1978 Los Angeles data can be developed, we may be able to estimate landslide losses for any projected storm intensity.

Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

PubMed Central

Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-01-01

Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

Eastern North Carolina Marine Corps Forces and Installations High Intensity Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

1,181,308 0.00001270 3,192,725 0.634 155 2004 Charley 4 464,500 0.00001722 725,782 0.366 87 Average: 0.000049 Table 2. Recent major storm...Monterey, California 4. Director, Training and Education , MCCDC, Code C46 Quantico, Virginia 5. Director, Marine Corps Research Center

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978-1979)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Walter D.; Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Tang, Frances

1989-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem during intense magnetic storms was investigated for ten intense magnetic storm events occurring between August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979. Particular attention was given to the dependence of the ring current energization on the ISEE-measured solar-wind parameters and the evolution of the ring current during the main phase of the intense storms. Several coupling functions were tested as energy input, and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant were searched for the best correlation with the Dst response. Results indicate that a large-scale magnetopause reconnection operates during an intense storm event and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the energization of the ring current.

On the mid-latitude ionospheric storm association with intense geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okpala, Kingsley Chukwudi; Ogbonna, Chinasa Edith

2018-04-01

The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms has been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ 100 nT) that occurred during solar cycles 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storm were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e. Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric conditions at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms.

A Study of Ionospheric Storm Association with Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okpala, K. C.

2017-12-01

The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms have been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤100nT) that occurred during solar cycle 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storms were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric condition at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms.

Wildfires and storms: Increased vulnerability of water quality in the southwestern U.S. in the face of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S. F.; Writer, J. H.; McCleskey, R. B.; Martin, D. A.

2014-12-01

Communities in the southwestern U.S. rely on forested watersheds to provide high-quality water, but these watersheds are prone to major disturbance by wildfire. The loss of vegetation and litter can decrease water storage and infiltration and decrease nutrient uptake, leading to enhanced surface runoff, erosion, and nutrient export compared to undisturbed watersheds. Post-wildfire impacts on water quality vary widely across geographic regions, and are largely driven by post-fire storm timing and intensity. In the southwestern U.S., the North American Monsoon can produce high-intensity rain from July through September. A better understanding of the post-fire water-quality response of watersheds to monsoonal storms in this region is therefore critical. The Fourmile Canyon Fire burned 2600 ha near Boulder, Colorado in September 2010, including 23% of the Fourmile Creek watershed. This watershed had been recovering from historical mining activity, and dispersed waste rock and mine tailings were only partially revegetated before the wildfire. We collected water quality, hydrological, and meteorological data with high temporal and spatial density upstream and downstream of the burned area for 4 years post-fire. For 9 months post-fire, the area received snow or low-intensity rain, and the difference in stream water chemistry between burned and unburned watersheds was minimal. However, in the summer of 2011, and in the following two summers, relatively common monsoonal storms caused dramatic, but short-lived, increases in discharge, sediment, nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, and metals downstream of the burned area. Such pulses can degrade aquatic ecosystems, impair water treatability, and decrease reservoir capacity. Climate change is projected to increase wildfire frequency and size and lead to an earlier and longer wildfire season. Simultaneously, storm frequency and intensity are predicted to increase, and the monsoon season may occur later in the year, potentially decreasing the average length of time between wildfire and subsequent high-intensity rain events. This suggests that substantial water-quality impacts may be more common in the future, resulting in a new paradigm for water treatment in the southwestern U.S.

The case for a southeastern Australian Dust Bowl, 1895-1945

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattle, Stephen R.

2016-06-01

Australia has an anecdotal history of severe wind erosion and dust storm activity, but there has been no lasting public perception of periods of extreme dust storm activity in this country, such as that developed in the USA following the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Newspaper accounts of droughts and dust storms in southeastern (SE) Australia between 1895 and 1945 suggest that, at various times, the scale of these events was comparable to those experienced in the USA Dust Bowl. During this 50-year period, average annual rainfall values in this region were substantially below long-term averages, air temperatures were distinctly warmer, marginal lands were actively cropped and grazed, and rabbits were a burgeoning grazing pest. From the beginning of the Federation Drought of 1895-1902, dust storm activity increased markedly, with the downwind coastal cities of Sydney and Melbourne experiencing dust hazes, dust storms and falls of red rain relatively regularly. Between 1935 and 1945, Sydney and Melbourne received ten and nine long-distance dust events, respectively, with the years of 1938 and 1944/45 being the most intensely dusty. Entire topsoil horizons were blown away, sand drift was extreme, and crops and sheep flocks were destroyed. Although these periods of extreme dust storm activity were not as sustained as those experienced in the USA in the mid-1930s, there is a strong case to support the contention that SE Australia experienced its own extended, somewhat episodic version of a Dust Bowl, with a similar combination of causal factors and landscape effects.

Intense hurricane strikes in southeastern New England since A.D. 1000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, J. P.; Ettinger, R.; Cleary, P.

2001-05-01

Intense, category 3, 4, and 5 landfalling hurricanes pose a significant threat to lives and resources in coastal areas. Intense hurricane strikes also play a significant role in transporting sediments and shaping coastal landforms. Potential links between human-induced climate change and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and the recent concentration of resources and population in areas where intense hurricanes may strike necessitate examination of decadal-to-millennial-scale variability in hurricane activity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane activity records for the western Atlantic Ocean only go back to the late 19th century. In the northeast United States historical records of hurricanes date back 370 years. We use stratigraphic evidence from coastal wetlands to extend the record of intense hurricane strikes into the prehistoric period in southeastern New England. Storm surge and wave action associated with intense storms can overtop barrier islands, remove sand and gravel from the beach and nearshore environment and deposit these sediments across the surface of coastal wetlands. In a regime of rising sea level, organic wetland sediments accumulate on top of these storm-induced deposits, preserving a record of past storms. We reconstructed storm deposition records within coastal marshes from eastern Connecticut to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. We matched these records to the historic record of storms and established the age of prehistoric storm deposits dating back about 1000 years with isotopic and stratigraphic dating techniques. The ages of storm deposits at all sites correlate to historic intense hurricane strikes. Prehistoric storm deposits can repeatedly be correlated among multiple sites and are of similar character and extent to the more recent deposits that we attribute to historic intense hurricane strikes. Therefore these older storm deposits were also likely deposited during prehistoric intense hurricanes. We documented at least eight deposits consistent with intense hurricane strikes in the last 1000 years. We identified deposits associated with historic intense hurricanes that occurred in A.D. 1954, 1938, 1869, 1815, 1638 and/or 1635. In addition we identified deposits likely associated with prehistoric intense hurricane strikes that occurred in A.D. 1400-1450, 1300-1400, and 1100-1150. These records indicate no apparent correlation between the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls in southeastern New England and the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period climate oscillations.

The threshold between storm overwash and inundation and the implication to paleo-storm records and climate signatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G.; Long, J.; Osterman, L. E.; Plant, N. G.; Marot, M. E.; Bernier, J.; Flocks, J. G.; Adams, C. S.

2014-12-01

In modern coastal systems, the sensitivity of a coastal site to erosion or deposition during storm conditions depends largely on the geomorphic configuration (e.g. dune or beach height and width) and the storm-induced oceanographic processes (surge and waves). Depending on the magnitude of these variables, coastal systems may be eroded, overwashed, breached, and/or inundated during the storm. To date, there has been no attempt to evaluate how these observable modern differences in storm-impact regimes might be utilized to interpret paleo-storm intensities and frequencies. Time-series of sediment texture, radioisotopic, and foraminiferal data from back-barrier environments along the Chandeleur Islands (Louisiana, USA) document the emplacement of a storm event deposit from Hurricane Isaac and we use this event to test paleo-storm intensity reconstruction methods. Water level reconstructed for the event layer using an advection (grain-size) settling model are 2 - 3 times greater than measured during the storm. The over-estimation is linked to the reconstruction model's assumptions concerning sediment transport during storms (i.e., overwash only), while actual processes included inundation as well. These contrasts may result in misidentification (i.e., presence/absence) and/or misclassification (i.e., intensity) of storms in the geologic record (e.g., low geomorphic conditions and high water levels) that would in turn affect the ability to link storm frequency or intensity to climatic drivers.

Water-quality assessment of stormwater runoff from a heavily used urban highway bridge in Miami, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald J.; Irwin, G.A.

1983-01-01

Runoff from a heavily-traveled, 1.43-acre bridge section of Interstate-95 in Miami, Florida, was comprehensively monitored for both quality and quantity during five selected storms between November 1979 and May 1981. For most water-quality parameters, 6 to 11 samples were collected during each of the 5 runoff events. Concentrations of most parameters in the runoff were quite variable both during individual storm events and among the five storm events; however, the ranges in parameter concentration were about the same magnitude report for numerous other highway and urban drainages. Data were normalized to estimate the average, discharge-weighted parameter loads per storm per acre of bridge surface and results suggested that the most significant factor influencing stormwater loads was parameter concentration. Rainfall intensity and runoff volume, however, influenced rates of loading. The total number of antecedent dry days and traffic volume did not appear to be conspicously related to either runoff concentrations or loads. (USGS)

A subsynoptic-scale kinetic energy study of the Red River Valley tornado outbreak (AVE-SESAME 1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, G. J.; Fuelberg, H. E.

1981-01-01

The subsynoptis-scale kinetic energy balance during the Red River Valley tornado outbreak is presented in order to diagnose storm environment interactions. Area-time averaged energetics indicate that horizontal flux convergence provides the major energy source to the region, while cross contour flow provides the greatest sink. Maximum energy variability is found in the upper levels in association with jet stream activity. Area averaged energetics at individual observation times show that the energy balance near times of maximum storm activity differs considerably from that of the remaining periods. The local kinetic energy balance over Oklahoma during the formation of a limited jet streak receives special attention. Cross contour production of energy is the dominant local source for jet development. Intense convection producing the Red River Valley tornadoes may have contributed to this local development by modifying the surrounding environment.

Relativistic Electrons Observed at UARS and the Interpretation of their Storm-Associated Intensity Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. D.; Goldberg, R. A.; Chenette, D. L.; Gaines, E. E.

1999-01-01

The High Energy Particle Spectrometer (HEPS) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) provides a database of electron intensities well resolved in energy and pitch-angle. Because of its 57 deg. orbital inclination, UARS encounters with magnetic shells L greater than 2 occur quite far off-equator (B/B (sub 0) greater than 9), corresponding to equatorial pitch angle alpha (sub 0) greater than 20 deg. Data acquired by HEPS (October 1991 through September 1994) span the declining phase of Solar Cycle 22. To reveal the storm-associated time dependence of relativistic electron intensities over the wide range of energies (50 keV to 5 MeV) covered by HEPS, we divide the daily average of the measured spectrum at a given L value (bin width = 0.25) by the corresponding 500-day average and plot the results with a color scale that spans only 2.5 decades. The data show that our off-equatorial electron intensities typically increase with time after the end of recovery phase (not during main phase or recovery phase) of each geomagnetic storm. The delay in off-equatorial energetic electron response and the subsequent lifetime of the corresponding electron flux enhancement seem to increase with particle energy above 300 keV. The trend below 300 keV seems to be opposite, such that the delay varies inversely with electron energy. Our working hypothesis for interpretation is that stormtime radial transport tends to increase the phase-space densities of trapped relativistic electrons but typically leads to a flux increases at specified energies only as the current (as indicated by Dst) decays. Flux enhancements in early recovery phase are greatest for equatorially mirroring electrons, and to pitch-angle anisotropies are initially large. Subsequent pitch-angle diffusion broadens the flux enhancement to particles that mirror off equator, thus gradually increasing low-altitude electron intensities (as detected by HEPS/UARS) on time scales equal to about 20% of corresponding lifetimes against diffusion into the loss cone. Alternative interpretations will also be examined.

Contribution of dust storms to PM10 levels in an urban arid environment.

PubMed

Krasnov, Helena; Katra, Itzhak; Koutrakis, Petros; Friger, Michael D

2014-01-01

Quantitative information on the contribution of dust storms to atmospheric PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm) levels is still lacking, especially in urban environments with close proximity to dust sources. The main objective of this study was to quantify the contribution of dust storms to PM10 concentrations in a desert urban center, the city of Beer-Sheva, Negev, Israel, during the period of 2001-2012. Toward this end, a background value based on the "dust-free" season was used as a threshold value to identify potentially "dust days." Subsequently, the net contribution of dust storms to PM10 was assessed. During the study period, daily PM10 concentrations ranged from 6 to over 2000 microg/m3. In each year, over 10% of the daily concentrations exceeded the calculated threshold (BVt) of 71 microg/m3. An average daily net contribution of dust to PM10 of 122 microg/m3 was calculated for the entire study period based on this background value. Furthermore, a dust storm intensity parameter (Ai) was used to analyze several storms with very high PM10 contributions (hourly averages of 1000-5197 microg/m3). This analysis revealed that the strongest storms occurred mainly in the last 3 yr of the study. Finally, these findings indicate that this arid urban environment experiences high PM10 levels whose origin lies in both local and regional dust events. The findings indicate that over time, the urban arid environment experiences high PM10 levels whose origin lies in local and regional dust events. It was noticed that the strongest storms have occurred mainly in the last 3 yr. It is believed that environmental changes such as global warming and desertification may lead to an increased air pollution and risk exposure to human health.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

The effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt

DOE PAGES

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; ...

2017-08-11

Using the electron phase space density (PSD) data measured by Van Allen Probe A from January 2013 to April 2015, we investigate the effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt during 50 geomagnetic storms. A statistical study shows that the maximum electron PSDs for various μ (μ = 630, 1096, 2290, and 3311 MeV/G) at L*~4.0 after the storm peak have good correlations with storm intensity (cc~0.70). This suggests that the occurrence and magnitude of geomagnetic storms are necessary for relativistic electron enhancements at the inner edge of the outer radiation belt (L*more » = 4.0). For moderate or weak storm events (SYM–H min > ~–100 nT) with weak substorm activity (AE max < 800 nT) and strong storm events (SYM–H min ≤ ~–100 nT) with intense substorms (AE max ≥ 800 nT) during the recovery phase, the maximum electron PSDs for various μ at different L* values (L* = 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0) are well correlated with storm intensity (cc > 0.77). For storm events with intense substorms after the storm peak, relativistic electron enhancements at L* = 4.5 and 5.0 are observed. This shows that intense substorms during the storm recovery phase are crucial to relativistic electron enhancements in the heart of the outer radiation belt. In conclusion, our statistics study suggests that magnetospheric processes during geomagnetic storms have a significant effect on relativistic electron dynamics.« less

The effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.

Using the electron phase space density (PSD) data measured by Van Allen Probe A from January 2013 to April 2015, we investigate the effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt during 50 geomagnetic storms. A statistical study shows that the maximum electron PSDs for various μ (μ = 630, 1096, 2290, and 3311 MeV/G) at L*~4.0 after the storm peak have good correlations with storm intensity (cc~0.70). This suggests that the occurrence and magnitude of geomagnetic storms are necessary for relativistic electron enhancements at the inner edge of the outer radiation belt (L*more » = 4.0). For moderate or weak storm events (SYM–H min > ~–100 nT) with weak substorm activity (AE max < 800 nT) and strong storm events (SYM–H min ≤ ~–100 nT) with intense substorms (AE max ≥ 800 nT) during the recovery phase, the maximum electron PSDs for various μ at different L* values (L* = 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0) are well correlated with storm intensity (cc > 0.77). For storm events with intense substorms after the storm peak, relativistic electron enhancements at L* = 4.5 and 5.0 are observed. This shows that intense substorms during the storm recovery phase are crucial to relativistic electron enhancements in the heart of the outer radiation belt. In conclusion, our statistics study suggests that magnetospheric processes during geomagnetic storms have a significant effect on relativistic electron dynamics.« less

Evolution of potentially eroding events along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, D.; García Codrón, J. C.

2009-09-01

The anthropogenic global warming is expected to result in a rise in sea-level, accompanied by changes in extreme climate events, such as the frequency and intensity of storms. Such scenario would result in an acceleration of coastal erosion. The aim of the present study is to assess the temporal evolution of potentially eroding events along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century, and to investigate changes in forcing processes such as the frequency and magnitude of storm surges and high wave events. To characterize the potentially eroding events, the total elevation of the water level was selected, being calculated as the sum of the contributions of the average water level, wave run up and the storm surges. Potentially eroding events were identified and quantified following a two-step procedure. Through the first step the potential flood induced by a given storm was estimated by simulating its effects on a theoretical beach profile (intermediate) using an empirical parameterization for extreme run-up approach. The second step consisted on characterizing the maximum storm surge registered during a storm. Those parameters were calculated from hindcasted data (storm surge, wave heights and period, wind speed and direction), retrieved from the SIMAR-44 database (Puertos del Estado), and validated against actual tide gauge measurements and buoy data (RedMar and RedExt networks). Analyses of total water levels showed a long term increase since 1958, resulting from the increase of mean sea level; conversely, a reduction of the frequency and the intensity of the storm events were deduced from the analysis of meteorological records. Since the impact of the storms on macro- and meso- tidal coast closely depend on the tides, a storm impact index was computed taking into account the storm surge magnitude, the wave heights and time duration during which a predefined threshold was exceeded by the sea level. The results are consistent with the analysis of the shoreline evolution on a specific sector of Cantabria (Oyambre) through the comparison of aerial photographs taken between 1957 and 2005. From the late 50´s to late 70’s, the shoreline significantly retreated, in correspondence with the period of maximum storm activity. Conversely, shoreline retreat slowed down during the late 1980s and 1990s while storm activity considerably decreased. Thus long-term coastal erosion, due to the occurrences of high water levels embedded into a long trend term of sea level rise, has been balanced by the reduction of the frequency and intensity of the Atlantic storms. Since relative sea-level will continue rising in the future, most of the coastal morphologies will probably be more frequently reached by the sea, increasing the flooding risk in low-lying sectors and promoting landslides along the cliffs.

Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Swanson, Kathleen; Takekawa, John Y.

2013-01-01

Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems, which are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate if regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of the tidal marshes and how that will impact the hydro-geomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities.

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Rainfall and runoff Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Washington State considering the change and uncertainty of observed and anticipated extreme rainfall and snow events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.

2015-12-01

The observed and anticipated increasing trends in extreme storm magnitude and frequency, as well as the associated flooding risk in the Pacific Northwest highlighted the need for revising and updating the local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are commonly used for designing critical water infrastructure. In Washington State, much of the drainage system installed in the last several decades uses IDF curves that are outdated by as much as half a century, making the system inadequate and vulnerable for flooding as seen more frequently in recent years. In this study, we have developed new and forward looking rainfall and runoff IDF curves for each county in Washington State using recently observed and projected precipitation data. Regional frequency analysis coupled with Bayesian uncertainty quantification and model averaging methods were used to developed and update the rainfall IDF curves, which were then used in watershed and snow models to develop the runoff IDF curves that explicitly account for effects of snow and drainage characteristic into the IDF curves and related designs. The resulted rainfall and runoff IDF curves provide more reliable, forward looking, and spatially resolved characteristics of storm events that can assist local decision makers and engineers to thoroughly review and/or update the current design standards for urban and rural storm water management infrastructure in order to reduce the potential ramifications of increasing severe storms and resulting floods on existing and planned storm drainage and flood management systems in the state.

The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Matthew C. Larsen; Angel J. Torres-Sanchez

1998-01-01

Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 peoplerkm2, and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing...

Late Holocene Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico from a Bayou Sediment Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Toomey, M.; Sullivan, R.; MacDonald, D.; Evans, R. L.; Ashton, A. D.

2012-12-01

Hurricanes pose a considerable threat to coastal communities along the Atlantic seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. The complex role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in controlling storm frequency and intensity, and how these relationships could be affected by climate change, remains uncertain. To better predict how storms will impact coastal communities, it is vital to constrain their past behavior, in particular how storm frequency and intensity and the pattern of storm tracks have been influenced by past climate conditions. In an effort to characterize past storm behavior, our work contributes to the growing network of storm records along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by reconstructing storm-induced deposits in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the Late Holocene. Previous work on the northern Gulf coast has shown considerable centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of intense hurricanes, much like the northern Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean Sea. The timing of active and quiet intervals during the last 1000 years amongst the Gulf Coast records appears to be anti-phased with stormy intervals along the North American east coast. The sparse spatial coverage of the existing intense hurricane reconstructions provides a limited view of the natural variability of intense hurricanes. A new, high resolution reconstruction of storms along the northern Gulf Coast would be beneficial in assembling the picture of the patterns of storminess during the Late Holocene. Our study site, Basin Bayou, is situated on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay in northwest Florida. From 1851 to 2011, 68 storms have struck the coast within 75 miles of Basin Bayou, of which 10 were Category 3 or greater, making it a prime location to reconstruct intense hurricanes. Basin Bayou openly exchanges water with Choctawhatchee Bay through a narrow channel, which acts as a conduit for propagating storm surges, and potentially coarse-grained bay sediments, into the bayou. Our record is constructed from grain size analyses and core density measurements on multiple cores from Basin Bayou. The upper sediments were dated with 210Pb and 137Cs techniques and compared with the historical record of storms. We observe substantial centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of storm-induced deposits in Basin Bayou over the last 1500 years that aligns considerably well with the temporal distribution of intense storms from preexisting Gulf Coast reconstructions.

The Geoeffectiveness of ICMEs from 1996 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, C.; Chi, Y.; Wang, Y.; Wang, S.; Ye, P.

2015-12-01

In a previous study (Chi et al. (2015)), we have established interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) catalogue in the near earth solar wind from 1996 to 2013. ICMEs are the predominant drivers of intense geomagnetic storms. In this paper we study the geoeffectiveness of ICMEs based on the ICME catalogue and the Dst indices the geoeffectiveness of ICMEs during 1996-2013. Based on the different in situ observation signatures, all ICMEs (338 events) are divided into three types of: isolated ICMEs (I-ICMEs), multiple ICMEs (M-ICMEs) and shock-embedded ICMEs (S-ICMEs). We find that about 58% of ICMEs caused geomagnetic storms with Dst_min <-30nT. Meanwhile, about 21% of ICMEs caused intense geomagnetic storms and almost all the intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the ICMEs. It also find that the south component of the magnetic field (Bs), the solar wind velocity (V) and the dawn-dust electric field Ey=VxBs are most important parameters in determine the geoeffectiveness of the ICMEs. We further get the critical values of these parameters of the ICMEs which can be used to determine whether a ICME can cause a geomagnetic storm. During solar cycle 24th, there are extremely low number of geomagnetic storms by the reason that the number of strong ICMEs arrived at the Earth is small. The S-ICMEs structures can cause the geomagnetic storms especially intense geomagnetic storms with high possibility. It statistically show the result that the S-ICMEs are important sources of the geomagnetic storms especially for intense storms.

Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris; Emanuel, Kerry

2011-05-15

Recent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Using historical data on hurricanes approaching South Florida, we develop prior probabilities of how storms might evolve. The effects of modification are estimated using a modern TC model. The FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on the value of property at risk are used to estimate expected economic losses. We compare wind damages after storm modification with damages after implementing hardening strategies protecting buildings. We find that if it were feasible and properly implemented, modification could reduce net losses from an intense storm more than hardening structures. However, hardening provides "fail safe" protection for average storms that might not be achieved if the only option were modification. The effect of natural variability is larger than that of either strategy. Damage from storm surge is modest in the scenario studied but might be abated by modification.

Solar wind driving of ionosphere-thermosphere responses during three storms on St. Patrick's Day.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; Mannucci, A. J.; Komjathy, A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Paxton, L. J.

2015-12-01

We overview solar wind features of three intense CME-driven storms occurring around the same time in March of 2012, 2013 and 2015 (74 - 80 DOY). Differences in solar wind drivers lead to different ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) responses in time, magnitude, and to different pre-conditioning. The purpose of our study is to establish a correspondence between interplanetary transient structures (parts of a CME or a high-speed-stream) and dynamics of IT parameters over the course of a geomagnetic storm. Detailed analysis will be presented for the St. Patrick's Day storm of 2015. We introduce global metrics of daytime and dusktime average ionospheric response of VTEC estimates from over ~2000 GPS ground stations distributed globally. Nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling radiation fluxes measured by TIMED/SABER instrument are calculated in several latitudinal bins throughout the storm phases. In addition, GUVI observations of the dynamical response of the thermosphere (NO and O/N2) are compared. SSUSI observations of the equatorial ionosphere, particularly the magnitude and separation of the equatorial arcs are considered. In our analysis, metrics are inter-compared to get better understanding of the self-consistent IT response to solar wind driving.

Adaptive use of research aircraft data sets for hurricane forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, M. K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2008-02-01

This study uses an adaptive observational strategy for hurricane forecasting. It shows the impacts of Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) and dropsonde data sets from Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) field campaigns on hurricane track and intensity forecasts. The following cases are used in this study: Bonnie, Danielle and Georges of 1998 and Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto of 2001. A single model run for each storm is carried out using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis as initial conditions, in addition to 50 other model runs where the analysis is randomly perturbed for each storm. The centers of maximum variance of the DLM heights are located from the forecast error variance fields at the 84-hr forecast. Back correlations are then performed using the centers of these maximum variances and the fields at the 36-hr forecast. The regions having the highest correlations in the vicinity of the hurricanes are indicative of regions from where the error growth emanates and suggests the need for additional observations. Data sets are next assimilated in those areas that contain high correlations. Forecasts are computed using the new initial conditions for the storm cases, and track and intensity skills are then examined with respect to the control forecast. The adaptive strategy is capable of identifying sensitive areas where additional observations can help in reducing the hurricane track forecast errors. A reduction of position error by approximately 52% for day 3 of forecast (averaged over 7 storm cases) over the control runs is observed. The intensity forecast shows only a slight positive impact due to the model’s coarse resolution.

Meteorological, atmospheric and climatic perturbations during major dust storms over Indo-Gangetic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sarvan; Kumar, Sanjay; Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Singh, Ramesh P.; Singh, Rajeev K.; Mishra, Amit K.; Srivastava, Manoj K.; Singh, Abhay K.

2015-06-01

During the pre-monsoon season (April-June), the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) suffers from frequent and intense dust storms originated from the arid and desert regions of southwest Asia (Iran, Afghanistan), Arabia and Thar desert blanketing IGB and Himalayan foothills. The present study examines the columnar and vertical aerosol characteristics and estimates the shortwave (0.25-4.0 μm) aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and atmospheric heating rates over Kanpur, central IGB, during three intense dust-storm events in the pre-monsoon season of 2010. MODIS images, meteorological and AERONET observations clearly show that all the dust storms either originated from the Thar desert or transported over, under favorable meteorological conditions (low pressure and strong surface winds) affecting nearly the whole IGB and modifying the aerosol loading and characteristics (Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo, size distribution and refractive index). CALIPSO observations reveal the presence of high-altitude (up to 3-5 km) dust plumes that strongly modify the vertical aerosol profile and are transported over Himalayan foothills with serious climate implications (atmospheric warming, enhanced melting of glaciers). Shortwave ARF calculations over Kanpur using SBDART model show large negative forcing values at the surface (-93.27, -101.60 and -66.71 W m-2) during the intense dusty days, associated with planetary (top of atmosphere) cooling (-18.16, -40.95, -29.58 W m-2) and significant atmospheric heating (75.11, 60.65, 37.13 W m-2), which is translated to average heating rates of 1.57, 1.41 and 0.78 K day-1, respectively in the lower atmosphere (below ∼3.5 km). The ARF estimates are in satisfactory agreement with the AERONET ARF retrievals over Kanpur.

Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adekoya, B. J.; Chukwuma, V. U.

2018-01-01

Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) that occurred during 1997-2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S + E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S + C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S + E. The Bz is high (≥10 nT), high density (ρ) (>10 N/cm3), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10 nT, low temperature (T ≤ 400,000 K), low ρ (≤10 N/cm3), high V (≥450 km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S + C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V ≤ 450 km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst ≤ -200 nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13 mV/m).

Storm Identification and Tracking for Hydrologic Modeling Using Hourly Accumulated NEXRAD Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, F.; Choi, J.; Socolofsky, S.

2006-12-01

Watershed responses to storm events are strongly affected by the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall; that is, the spatial distribution of the precipitation intensity and its evolution over time. Although real storms are moving entities with non-uniform intensities in both space and time, hydrological applications often synthesize these attributes by assuming storms that are uniformly distributed and have variable intensity according to a pre-defined hyetograph shape. As one considers watersheds of greater size, the non-uniformity of rainfall becomes more important, because a storm may not cover the watershed's entire area and may not stay in the watershed for its full duration. In order to incorporate parameters such as storm area, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution in the definition of synthetic storms, it is necessary to determine these storm characteristics from spatially distributed precipitation data. To date, most algorithms for identifying and tracking storms have been applied to short time-step radar reflectivity data (i.e., 15 minutes or less), where storm features are captured in an effectively synoptic manner. For the entire United States, however, the most reliable distributed precipitation data are the one-hour accumulated 4 km × 4 km gridded NEXRAD data of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) (NWS 2005. The one-hour aggregation level of the data, though, makes it more difficult to identify and track storms than when using sequences of synoptic radar reflectivity data, because storms can traverse over a number of NEXRAD cells and change size and shape appreciably between consecutive data maps. In this paper, we present a methodology to overcome the identification and tracking difficulties and to extract the characteristics of moving storms (e.g. size, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution) from one-hour accumulated distributed rainfall data. The algorithm uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) for storm identification and image processing for storm tracking. The method has been successfully applied to Brazos County in Texas using the 2003 Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) NEXRAD rainfall data.

Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, W. H.

2017-12-01

A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features. Part 1; Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.

2004-01-01

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features. Part 1; Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.

2005-01-01

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity. areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%. and remaining 97.6%. The set of weakest/smallest features composes 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate of 0.7 flashes (fl) per minute. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl per minute; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85 GHz) and 69 K (37 GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335 000 square kilometers and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10 kg per hour of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global Tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations. seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land-ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Ranking ICME's efficiency for geomagnetic and ionospheric storms and risk of false alarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.

2017-11-01

A statistical analysis is undertaken on ICME's efficiency in producing the geomagnetic and ionospheric storms. The mutually-consistent thresholds for the intense, moderate and weak space weather storms and quiet conditions are introduced with an analytical model based on relations between the equatorial Dst index and geomagnetic indices AE, aa, ap, ap(τ) and the ionospheric Vσ indices. The ionosphere variability Vσ index is expressed in terms of the total electron content (TEC) deviation from the -15-day sliding median normalized by the standard deviation for the 15 preceding days. The intensity of global positive ionospheric storm, Vσp, and negative storm, Vσn, is represented by the relative density of anomalous ±Vσ index occurrence derived from the global ionospheric maps GIM-TEC for 1999-2016. An impact of total 421 ICME events for 1999-2016 on the geomagnetic and ionospheric storms expressed by AE, Dst, aa, ap, ap(τ), Vσp, Vσn indices and their superposition is analyzed using ICME catalogue by Richardson and Cane (2010) during 24 h after the ICME start time t0. Hierarchy of efficiency of ICME → storm relation is established. The ICMEs have a higher probability (22-25%) to be followed by the intense ionospheric and auroral electrojet storms at global and high latitudes as compared to the intense storms at middle and low latitudes (18-20%) and to moderate and weak storms at high latitudes (5-17%). At the same time ICMEs are more effective in producing the moderate storms (24-28%) at the middle and low latitudes as compared to the intense and weak storms at these latitudes (13-22%) and to moderate storms at high latitudes (8-17%). The remaining cases when quiet conditions are observed after ICMEs present higher chance for a false alarm. The risk factor for a false alarm can vary from 18% if the superposition of all indices is considered, to 51-64% for individual AE, Vσp and Vσn indices. The analysis indicates that the mutually-consistent thresholds can be successfully applied to the external sources of the geomagnetic and ionospheric storms other than ICME which present challenge for the further investigation.

Impact of Hurricanes and Nor'easters on a Migrating Inlet System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Elgar, S.; Raubenheimer, B.

2016-12-01

After breaching in 2007, Katama Inlet, connecting Katama Bay to the Atlantic Ocean on the south shore of Martha's Vineyard, MA, migrated 2 km until it closed in 2015. Bathymetric surveys before and after Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) indicate the strong waves and currents associated with these storms caused 2 m of erosion and deposition around the inlet mouth. The waves, currents, and bathymetric change observed during the hurricanes were used to validate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic components of a Delft3D numerical model of the Martha's Vineyard coastline for storm (> 3 m wave heights) conditions. When driven with observed bathymetry and offshore waves, as well as simulated (WaveWatch3) winds and barometric pressures, the model reproduces the pattern and range of bathymetric change observed around the inlet. Model simulations of realistic (i.e., Irene and Sandy) and idealized storm conditions with a range of durations and wave conditions are used to test the relative importance of short-duration, high-intensity storms (hurricanes) and longer-duration, lower-intensity storms (nor'easters) on inlet migration. The simulations suggest that longer-duration, lower-intensity storms cause a higher range and variance in bathymetric change around the inlet than shorter-duration, higher-intensity storms. However, the simulations also suggest that the storm-induced migration of the inlet depends more on the wave direction at the peak of the storm than on the duration of the storm peak. The effect of storms on inlet migration over yearly time scales will be discussed. Funded by NSF, NOAA, ONR, and ASD(R&E).

Monitoring subsurface hydrologic response for precipitation-induced shallow landsliding in the San Francisco Bay area, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, Brian D.; Stock, Jonathan; Weber, Lisa C.; Whitman, K.; Knepprath, N.

2012-01-01

Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California, USA often trigger shallow landslides. Some of these landslides mobilize into potentially hazardous debris flows. A growing body of research indicates that rainfall intensity-duration thresholds are insufficient for accurate prediction of landslide occurrence. In response, we have begun long-term monitoring of the hydrologic response of land-slide-prone hillslopes to rainfall in several areas of the SFBA. Each monitoring site is equipped with sensors for measuring soil moisture content and piezometric pressure at several soil depths along with a rain gauge connected to a cell phone or satellite telemetered data logger. The data are transmitted in near-real-time, providing the ability to monitor hydrologic conditions before, during, and after storms. Results are guiding the establishment of both antecedent and storm-specific rainfall and moisture content thresholds which must be achieved before landslide-causative positive pore water pressures are generated. Although widespread shallow landsliding has not yet occurred since the deployment of the monitoring sites, several isolated land-slides have been observed in the area of monitoring. The landslides occurred during a period when positive pore water pressures were measured as a result of intense rainfall that followed higher-than-average season precipitation totals. Continued monitoring and analysis will further guide the establishment of more general-ized thresholds for different regions of the SFBA and contribute to the development and calibration of physi-cally-based predictive models.

Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

PubMed

Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

2017-07-01

Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

Convection index as a tool for trend analysis of intense summer storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaal, Ladislav; Molnar, Peter; Szolgay, Jan

2013-04-01

Convective summer thunderstorms are generally responsible for the most devastating floods in urban and small natural catchments. In this study we focus on the identification of the nature and magnitude of changes in the properties of intense summer storms of convective character in Switzerland in the last three decades. The study is based on precipitation records from the SwissMetNet (MeteoSwiss) network at 63 stations that cover altitudes ranging from 200 up to 3300 m a.s.l. over the period 1981-2012 (32 years). Additionally, the same stations also measure the number of lightning strikes within a range of 30 km from each station. In an accompanying contribution we describe the method how intensive summer storms can be reliably selected out of all storms in long and high resolution precipitation time series. On the basis of the statistical distributions and dependence among key storm characteristics at the event scale (total rainfall depth R, storm duration D, and peak intensity I) and using high resolution lightning data as a surrogate we defined a threshold intensity I* that differentiates between the events accompanied with lightning with an acceptably small probability of misclassification. This allowed us to identify intense summer events with convective character as those where I > I* regardless of their duration or total rainfall depth. The current study makes use of the threshold intensity I* for the definition of a seasonal convection index at each station (Llasat, 2001). This index gives us a measure of 'convectiveness', i.e. the total precipitation depth coming from convective storms relative to the total precipitation depth of all summer storms. We computed the convection index at all 63 stations and analyzed the series for trends. We found that the seasonal convection index increases at most of the stations in Switzerland and in approximately 20% of the cases this increase is statistically significant. This is likely a consequence of the fact that the number of summer storms exceeding the threshold I* also shows an increasing tendency with a similar percentage of statistically significant changes. Although our analysis indicates an increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of summer storms with convective character in Switzerland, it is not yet clear whether these can be traced to causal factors such as atmospheric warming, etc. This remains an open research question.

Multispacecraft observations of the east-west asymmetry of solar energetic storm particle events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarris, E. T.; Krimigis, S. M.

1985-01-01

Energetic proton observations have been obtained by instruments aboard the IMP-7 and -8 spacecraft and Voyager-1 and -2 deep space probes, in order to study the generation of solar flare Energetic Storm Particle Events (ESP) events at widely separated locations on the same shock front which are presumably characterized, on average, by different IMF shock front configurations for solar flare sites. Energetic proton observations indicate that substantial differences in the ESP proton intensity enhancements are detected at these energies for locations on the shock front with wide heliolongitude separations. The present results indicate that acceleration of ESP protons to more than 500 keV takes place at the quasi-perpendicular shock front domain, consistent with the 'shock drift' acceleration mechanism.

Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Array Effects on Wave Current and Sediment Circulation: Monterey Bay CA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Jesse D.; Jones, Craig; Magalen, Jason

2014-09-01

The goal s of this study were to develop tools to quantitatively characterize environments where wave energy converter ( WEC ) devices may be installed and to assess e ffects on hydrodynamics and lo cal sediment transport. A large hypothetical WEC array was investigated using wave, hydrodynamic, and sediment transport models and site - specific average and storm conditions as input. The results indicated that there were significant changes in sediment s izes adjacent to and in the lee of the WEC array due to reduced wave energy. The circulation in the lee of the array was also altered; moremore » intense onshore currents were generated in the lee of the WECs . In general, the storm case and the average case show ed the same qualitative patterns suggesting that these trends would be maintained throughout the year. The framework developed here can be used to design more efficient arrays while minimizing impacts on nearshore environmen ts.« less

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Assessing the Performance of GPS Precise Point Positioning Under Different Geomagnetic Storm Conditions during Solar Cycle 24.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaomin; Gu, Shengfeng; Lou, Yidong; Xiong, Chao; Chen, Biyan; Jin, Xueyuan

2018-06-01

The geomagnetic storm, which is an abnormal space weather phenomenon, can sometimes severely affect GPS signal propagation, thereby impacting the performance of GPS precise point positioning (PPP). However, the investigation of GPS PPP accuracy over the global scale under different geomagnetic storm conditions is very limited. This paper for the first time presents the performance of GPS dual-frequency (DF) and single-frequency (SF) PPP under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions during solar cycle 24 using a large data set collected from about 500 international GNSS services (IGS) stations. The global root mean square (RMS) maps of GPS PPP results show that stations with degraded performance are mainly distributed at high-latitude, and the degradation level generally depends on the storm intensity. The three-dimensional (3D) RMS of GPS DF PPP for high-latitude during moderate, intense, and super storms are 0.393 m, 0.680 m and 1.051 m, respectively, with respect to only 0.163 m on quiet day. RMS errors of mid- and low-latitudes show less dependence on the storm intensities, with values less than 0.320 m, compared to 0.153 m on quiet day. Compared with DF PPP, the performance of GPS SF PPP is inferior regardless of quiet or disturbed conditions. The degraded performance of GPS positioning during geomagnetic storms is attributed to the increased ionospheric disturbances, which have been confirmed by our global rate of TEC index (ROTI) maps. Ionospheric disturbances not only lead to the deteriorated ionospheric correction but also to the frequent cycle-slip occurrence. Statistical results show that, compared with that on quiet day, the increased cycle-slip occurrence are 13.04%, 56.52%, and 69.57% under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions, respectively.

Airborne dust absorption by semi-arid forests reduces PM pollution in nearby urban environments.

PubMed

Uni, Daphna; Katra, Itzhak

2017-11-15

Dust storms are a major source of global atmospheric particulate matter (PM), having significant impacts on air pollution and human health. During dust storms, daily averages of atmospheric PM concentrations can reach high levels above the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for air quality. The objective of this study was to explore the impact of forests on PM distribution following dust events in a region that is subjected to frequent dust storms (Northern Negev, Israel). Dust was measured in a forest transect including urban environments that are nearby the forest and at a distal location. During a background period, without dust events, the forest with its surrounding areas were characterized by lower monthly average of PM concentrations (38μg/m 3 ) compared with areas that are not affected by the forest (54μg/m 3 ). Such difference can be meaningful for long-term human health exposure. A reduction in PM levels in the forest transect was evident at most measured dust events, depending on the storm intensity and the locations of the protected areas. A significant reduction in PM 2.5 /PM 10 during dust events, indicates the high efficiency of the forest trees to absorb airborne PM 2.5 . Analysis of dust particles absorbed on the foliage revealed a total dust deposits of 8.1-9.2g/m 2 , which is equal to a minimum of 418.2tons removed from the atmosphere per a forest foliage area (30km 2 ). The findings can support environmental strategies to enhance life quality in regions that are subjected to dust storms, or under potential risk of dust-related PM due to land use and/or climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-06-01

Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

The Historical Context of the 2017 Hurricane Season's Ocean Warmth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; Akella, S.; Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Abraham, J. P.

2017-12-01

Public discussion of the unusually active 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season quickly focused on the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic. Some meteorologists characterized them as near-normal, while climate-focused voices tended to characterize them as warmer than average, placing them in the context of anthropogenic warming. Much of this divergence in views can be explained by the relatively recent, relatively warm baseline (1981-2010) used for daily SST information, such as provided by OISSTv2. Longer term records of SSTs, such as HadISST, HadSST, and ERSST only attempt to provide monthly averages, while tropical cyclones have lifetimes on the timescale of days. Further, hurricanes create a cold wake which can impact storm movement and intensity, as well as subsequent storms, but is gradually wiped out by the sun. This process is further complicated by the role of ocean heat content (OHC), an increase in which can mitigate the impact of upwelled water. Here we examine the statistical characteristics of daily SSTs and OHC during the satellite record, including their temporal autocorrelation, and use this information in conjunction with longer term monthly records to bound what we can and cannot confidently say about the longer term historical context of the storms Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Storm track response to climate change: Insights from simulations using an idealized dry GCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, Cheikh; Schneider, Tapio

2013-04-01

The midlatitude storm tracks, where the most intense extratropical cyclones are found, are an important fixture in the general circulation. They are instrumental in balancing the Earth's heat, momentum, and moisture budgets and are responsible for the weather and climatic patterns over large regions of the Earth's surface. As a result, the midlatitude storm tracks are the subject of a considerable amount of scientific research to understand their response to global warming. This has produced the robust result showing that the storm tracks migrate poleward with global warming. However, the dynamical mechanisms responsible for this migration remain unclear. Our work seeks to broaden understanding of the dynamical mechanisms responsible for storm track migration. Competing mechanisms present in the comprehensive climate models often used to study storm track dynamics make it difficult to determine the primary mechanisms responsible for storm track migration. We are thus prompted to study storm track dynamics from a simplified and idealized framework, which enables the decoupling of mean temperature effects from the effects of static stability and of tropical from extratropical effects. Using a statistically zonally symmetric, dry general circulation model (GCM), we conduct a series of numerical simulations to help understand the storm track response to global mean temperatures and to the tropical convective static stability, which we can vary independently. We define storm tracks as regions of zonally and temporally averaged maxima of barotropic eddy kinetic energy (EKE). This storm track definition also allows us to use previously found scalings between the magnitude of bulk measures of mean available potential energy (MAPE) and EKE, to decompose MAPE, and to obtain some mechanistic understanding of the storm track response in our simulations. These simulations provide several insights, which enable us to extend upon existing theories on the mechanisms driving the poleward migration of the storm tracks. We demonstrate a poleward migration of the midlatitude storm tracks in dry atmospheres with fixed pole-equator temperature contrast and increasing radiative equilibrium mean temperature, without changes in convective static stability. We also show scalings between the location of maxima of surface MAPE and of barotropic EKE. In the simulations where we independently vary tropical convective static stability, we find a marked poleward migration of the storm tracks. However, our decomposition shows that meridional temperature gradients, and not static stability, determine the location and the intensity of the storm tracks. This suggests that although the storm tracks are sensitive to tropical convective static stability, it influences them indirectly. Furthermore, our simulations show that the storm tracks generally migrate in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley cell. Therefore, we hypothesize that it is possible that the Hadley cell provides the tropical-extratropical communication necessary to generate the storm track response to tropical convective static stability we observe in the simulations. The results contained herein could be used to supplement ongoing storm track research in moist atmospheres using comparatively more comprehensive GCMs to understand storm track dynamics in earth-like environments.

Irondequoit Creek Watershed New York, Final Feasibility Report and Environmental Impact Statement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

National Flood Insurance Program 58 8 System of Accounts 95 9 Summary of Benefits and Costs 96 10 Summary of Average Annual Benefits - Selected Plan 112...material, velocity distribution, vegetation, soil type, topography, and especially rainfall regime, where a few intense storms can account for severe...Alternative B is described later in this report. Flood Insurance - Flood insurance provides some financial protection to vic- tims of flood related

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

Treesearch

Jennifer A Holm; Skip J Van Bloem; Guy R Larocque; Herman H Shugart

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical...

Ionospheric Behavior During the First Few Hours of Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mannucci, Anthony J.; Crowley, Geoff; Tsurutani, Bruce; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

2006-01-01

The behavior of the ionosphere during the first few hours of intense geomagnetic storms is presented. The topics include: 1) TEC Modification; 2) JASON TEC (1336 km altitude); 3) Multiple Storms; 4) CHAMP (greater than 400 km) November 20, 2003; 5) November 20, 1PM LT, Ground; 6) Role of Modeling; and 7) Composition-related increase.

Storm water runoff concentration matrix for urban areas.

PubMed

Göbel, P; Dierkes, C; Coldewey, W G

2007-04-01

The infrastructure (roads, sidewalk, commercial and residential structures) added during the land development and urbanisation process is designed to collect precipitation and convey it out of the watershed, typically in existing surface water channels, such as streams and rivers. The quality of surface water, seepage water and ground water is influenced by pollutants that collect on impervious surfaces and that are carried by urban storm water runoff. Heavy metals, e.g. lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), mineral oil hydrocarbons (MOH) and readily soluble salts in runoff, contribute to the degradation of water. An intensive literature search on the distribution and concentration of the surface-dependent runoff water has been compiled. Concentration variations of several pollutants derived from different surfaces have been averaged. More than 300 references providing about 1300 data for different pollutants culminate in a representative concentration matrix consisting of medians and extreme values. This matrix can be applied to long-term valuations and numerical modelling of storm water treatment facilities.

Utility of CrIS/ATMS profiles to diagnose extratropical transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berndt, Emily; Folmer, Michael

2018-03-01

Anticipating changes in hurricane intensity can be challenging in data sparse regions of the North Atlantic Ocean. Hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles have the potential to provide a wealth of information about the vertical structure of thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere such as temperature and moisture which can impact hurricane intensity. Increased forecaster situational awareness and identification of moist or dry layers in the near-storm environment can indicate impending changes in storm intensity. This investigation demonstrates the utility and value of hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles to diagnose thermodynamic characteristics of the near-storm environment to anticipate changes in hurricane intensity.

Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.

Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiaojiao; Zhang, Yaocun

2018-01-01

Interannual variability of the North Pacific storm track and the three-dimensional atmosphere circulation during winter are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1950-2015. Results show that year-to-year variations of the storm track exhibit two principal modes, i.e. the monopole intensity change and the meridional shift of the storm track, respectively. The intensity change mode is linked to weakening of the Siberian high, northward shift of the western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and well corresponding to the Western Pacific teleconnection. The meridional shift mode is related to intensification and south-eastward extension of western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and linked to the Pacific-North America teleconnection. The internal atmospheric dynamics responsible for the storm track variability is further investigated from the perspective of wave-flow energy conversion. For the intensity change mode, accompanied by the enhanced baroclinity over the entrance region of the storm track, more energy is converted from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and then transferred to eddy kinetic energy, which is favorable for the overall enhancement of the storm track intensity. For the meridional shift mode, more energy is transformed from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and further transferred to eddy kinetic energy over the southern (northern) areas of the storm track, contributing to the southward (northward) shift of the storm track. Additionally, the increased (decreased) conversion from mean-flow kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy over the north-eastern Pacific region is also in favor of the southward (northward) shift of the storm track.

To what extent can green infrastructure mitigate downstream flooding in a peri-urban catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, J. E.; Burns, M.; Sanders, B. F.; Flethcher, T.

2016-12-01

In this research, we couple an urban hydrologic model (MUSIC, eWater, AUS) with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo, UC Irvine, USA) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with stormwater control measures (SCMs) can propagate flood management benefits downstream. Our study site is the peri-urban Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment in eastern Melbourne, AUS, with an area of 4.5 km2 and connected impervious area of 9%. Urban development is mainly limited to the upper 2 km2of the catchment. Since 2009 the LSC catchment has been the subject of a large-scale experiment aiming to restore morenatural flow by implementing over 300 SCMs, such as rain tanks and infiltration trenches, resulting in runoff from 50% of connected impervious areas now being intercepted by some form of SCM. For our study we calibrated the hydrologic and hydraulic models based on current catchment conditions, then we developed models representing alternative SCM scenarios including a complete lack of SCMs versus a full implementation of SCMs. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 63-1% and durations between 10 min to 24 hr. Metrics of SCM efficacy in changing flood regime include flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Results indicate that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 hours, current SCM conditions reduce downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of SCMs would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of SCMs could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing damage potential to structures in the flow path and increasing the ability for vehicles to evacuate flooded streets. We also found that for storm durations longer than 3 hours, the SCMs capacity to retain rainfall runoff volumes is much decreased, with a full implementation of SCMs only reducing flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%. Therefore additional measures are required for downstream flood hazard mitigation from long duration events.

On the derivation of the areal reduction factor of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacchi, Baldassare; Ranzi, Roberto

A stochastic derivation of the areal reduction factor (ARF) of the storm intensity is presented: it is based on the analysis of the crossing properties of the rainfall process aggregated in space and time. As a working hypothesis, the number of crossings of high rainfall intensity levels is assumed to be Poisson-distributed and a hyperbolic tail of the probability of exceedances of rainfall intensity has been adopted. These hypotheses are supported by the analysis of radar maps during an intense storm event which occurred in Northern Italy. The reduction factor derived from this analysis shows a power-law decay with respect to the area of integration and the duration of the storm. The areal reduction results as a function of the storm duration and of its frequency. A weak, but significant decrease of the areal reduction factor with respect to the return period is shown by the functions derived, and this result is consistent with that of some recent studies on this topic. The results derived, although preliminary, may find useful applications for the definition of the design storm in urban catchments of a size greater than some square kilometres and with duration of some hours.

IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariff, N. M.; Jemain, A. A.; Ibrahim, K.; Wan Zin, W. Z.

2012-11-01

SummaryIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in many hydrologic designs for the purpose of water managements and flood preventions. The IDF curves available in Malaysia are those obtained from univariate analysis approach which only considers the intensity of rainfalls at fixed time intervals. As several rainfall variables are correlated with each other such as intensity and duration, this paper aims to derive IDF points for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia by means of bivariate frequency analysis. This is achieved through utilizing the relationship between storm intensities and durations using the copula method. Four types of copulas; namely the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Frank, Gaussian and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copulas are considered because the correlation between storm intensity, I, and duration, D, are negative and these copulas are appropriate when the relationship between the variables are negative. The correlations are attained by means of Kendall's τ estimation. The analysis was performed on twenty rainfall stations with hourly data across Peninsular Malaysia. Using Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) for testing goodness-of-fit, both Frank and Gaussian copulas are found to be suitable to represent the relationship between I and D. The IDF points found by the copula method are compared to the IDF curves yielded based on the typical IDF empirical formula of the univariate approach. This study indicates that storm intensities obtained from both methods are in agreement with each other for any given storm duration and for various return periods.

Emergency assessment of potential debris-flow peak discharges, Missionary Ridge fire, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Rea, Alan H.; Gleason, J. Andrew; Garcia, Stephen P.

2002-01-01

These maps present the results of assessments of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from the basins burned by the Missionary Ridge fire of June 9 through July 14, 2002, near Durango, Colorado. The maps are based on a regression model for debris-flow peak discharge normalized by average storm intensity as a function of basin gradient and burned extent, and limited field checking. A range of potential peak discharges that could be produced from each of the burned basins between 1 ft3/s (0.03 m3/s) and 6,446 ft3/s (183 m3/s) is calculated for the 5-year, 1-hour storm of 0.80 inches (20 mm). Potential peak discharges between 1 ft3/s (0.03 m3/s) and >8,000 ft3/s (227 m3/s) are calculated for the 25-year, 1-hour storm of 1.3 inches (33 mm) and for the 100-year, 1-hour storm of 1.8 inches (46 mm). These maps are intended for use by emergency personnel to aid in the preliminary design of mitigation measures, and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Modeling Storm-Induced Inundation on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta for Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravens, T. M.; Allen, J.

2012-12-01

The Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is a large delta on the west coast of Alaska and one of the few remaining deltas that is largely free of anthropogenic impacts. The delta hosts a wide-range of nesting birds including the endangered Spectacled Eider. The delta plain, with an elevation of about 2 m (m.s.l.) - and an average tidal range of 2.7 m - is subject to frequent inundation by storm surges originating from the adjacent Bering Sea. Here, we report on our efforts to validate a storm-surge modeling system consisting of a course-grid ADCIRC model covering the Bering and Chukchi Seas and a Delft3D fine-grid model of the southern YK Delta. The storm surge models are validated based on measured water levels from 2007-2010 and using satellite observations of inundation due to large storms in 2005 and 2006. About 10 storms over the past 30 years are modeled. Based on model output, we computed a spatially distributed inundation index which is a time-integral of water level throughout the fine-grid model domain from individual storms and from the 30 year period. In order to examine the change in inundation in future climates, the models of the 30 year period were re-run assuming a 1 and 2 meter sea level rise. The impact of climate change on inundation frequency and intensity - using the inundation index - is reported. Future work will relate the present and projected inundation index to ecological parameters such as bird-nest concentration and vegetation type.

Characteristics of storms driving wave-induced seafloor mobility on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalyander, P. Soupy; Butman, Bradford

2015-01-01

This study investigates the relationship between spatial and temporal patterns of wave-driven sediment mobility events on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf and the characteristics of the storms responsible for them. Mobility events, defined as seafloor wave stress exceedance of the critical stress of 0.35 mm diameter sand (0.2160 Pa) for 12 or more hours, were identified from surface wave observations at National Data Buoy Center buoys in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) over the period of 1997-2007. In water depths ranging from 36-48 m, there were 4-9 mobility events/year of 1-2 days duration. Integrated wave stress during events (IWAVES) was used as a combined metric of wave-driven mobility intensity and duration. In the MAB, over 67% of IWAVES was caused by extratropical storms, while in the SAB, greater than 66% of IWAVES was caused by tropical storms. On average, mobility events were caused by waves generated by storms located 800+ km away. Far-field hurricanes generated swell 2-4 days before the waves caused mobility on the shelf. Throughout most of the SAB, mobility events were driven by storms to the south, east, and west. In the MAB and near Cape Hatteras, winds from more northerly storms and low-pressure extratropical systems in the mid-western U.S. also drove mobility events. Waves generated by storms off the SAB generated mobility events along the entire U.S. East Coast shelf north to Cape Cod, while Cape Hatteras shielded the SAB area from swell originating to the north offshore of the MAB.

Intense Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 and Associated Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, R.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

Solar cycle 24 commenced in November 2008 following a deep solar minimum. The solar activity picked up gradually and consequently led to increase in geomagnetic activity during the ascending phase of new cycle. From the start of this cycle till July 2013, only 12 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) have occurred. We investigate the solar wind-interplanetary drivers for these intense geomagnetic storms using satellite data. Total energy Poynting flux (ɛ) representing the fraction of solar wind energy transferred into the magnetosphere during different storms will be calculated. Solar cycle 24 is weaker as compared to previous solar cycle (23). In this work, a comparative study of solar and geomagnetic signatures during the ascending phase of the two cycles will be carried out.

Superposed Epoch Analysis of Ring Current Geoeffectiveness Related to Solar Wind and Plasma Sheet Drivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liemohm, M. W.; Kozyra, J. U.; Thomsen, M. F.; Borovsky, J. E.; Gahurthakurta, Madulika (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The goal of that proposal was to examine the relationship between solar wind drivers and ring current dynamics through data analysis and numerical simulations. The data analysis study was a statistical examination (via superposed epoch analyses) of a solar cycle's worth of storm data. Solar wind data, geophysical indices, and geosynchronous plasma data were collected for every time period with Dst< -50 nT from 1989 through 2002, and the storm list now exceeds 400 entries. This work was first conducted by a summer undergraduate student, Mr. John Vann (University of Kansas), with funding from the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates program. It was then continued by a University of Michigan graduate student, Mr. Jichun Zhang. Mr. Zhang is now in his fourth year at U-M and is progressing very well toward a PhD in space science. His dissertation will be based on his data analysis and modeling efforts using this geomagnetic storm database. The results of the data analysis study have been the focus of several conference presentations, and the first manuscript has just been published. Two additional papers are presently being prepared, one on average (superposed) solar wind features for various storm subsets (e.g., intense storms at solar maximum), and another on geosynchronous plasma features for these same storm subsets. The latter result was highlighted by the TR&T program director in his presentation at the COSPAR meeting this summer.

Groundwater recharge assessment at local and episodic scale in a soil mantled perched karst aquifer in southern Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allocca, V.; De Vita, P.; Manna, F.; Nimmo, John R.

2015-01-01

Depending on the seasonally varying air temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation patterns, calculated values of RPR varied between 35% and 97% among the individual episodes. A multiple linear correlation of the RPR with both the average intensity of recharging rainfall events and the antecedent soil water content was calculated. Given the relatively easy measurability of precipitation and soil water content, such an empirical model would have great hydrogeological and practical utility. It would facilitate short-term forecasting of recharge in karst aquifers of the Mediterranean region and other aquifers with similar hydrogeological characteristics. By establishing relationships between the RPR and climate-dependent variables such as average storm intensity, it would facilitate prediction of climate-change effects on groundwater recharge. The EMR methodology could further be applied to other aquifers for evaluating the relationship of recharge to various hydrometeorological and hydrogeological processes.

Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.

PubMed

An, Linchang; Che, Huizheng; Xue, Min; Zhang, Tianhang; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhou, Chunhong; Zhao, Hujia; Gui, Ke; Zheng, Yu; Sun, Tianze; Liang, Yuanxin; Sun, Enwei; Zhang, Hengde; Zhang, Xiaoye

2018-08-15

We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m 3 (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America

PubMed Central

Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.

PubMed

Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P

2017-06-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Modeling storms improves estimates of long-term shoreline change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazer, L. Neil; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Fletcher, Charles H.

2009-10-01

Large storms make it difficult to extract the long-term trend of erosion or accretion from shoreline position data. Here we make storms part of the shoreline change model by means of a storm function. The data determine storm amplitudes and the rate at which the shoreline recovers from storms. Historical shoreline data are temporally sparse, and inclusion of all storms in one model over-fits the data, but a probability-weighted average model shows effects from all storms, illustrating how model averaging incorporates information from good models that might otherwise have been discarded as un-parsimonious. Data from Cotton Patch Hill, DE, yield a long-term shoreline loss rate of 0.49 ± 0.01 m/yr, about 16% less than published estimates. A minimum loss rate of 0.34 ± 0.01 m/yr is given by a model containing the 1929, 1962 and 1992 storms.

A global scale picture of ionospheric peak electron density changes during geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Vickal V.; Parkinson, Murray L.

2017-04-01

Changes in ionospheric plasma densities can affect society more than ever because of our increasing reliance on communication, surveillance, navigation, and timing technology. Models struggle to predict changes in ionospheric densities at nearly all temporal and spatial scales, especially during geomagnetic storms. Here we combine a 50 year (1965-2015) geomagnetic disturbance storm time (Dst) index with plasma density measurements from a worldwide network of 132 vertical incidence ionosondes to develop a picture of global scale changes in peak plasma density due to geomagnetic storms. Vertical incidence ionosondes provide measurements of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2), a direct measure of the peak electron density (NmF2) of the ionosphere. By dissecting the NmF2 perturbations with respect to the local time at storm onset, season, and storm intensity, it is found that (i) the storm-associated depletions (negative storm effects) and enhancements (positive storm effects) are driven by different but related physical mechanisms, and (ii) the depletion mechanism tends to dominate over the enhancement mechanism. The negative storm effects, which are detrimental to HF radio links, are found to start immediately after geomagnetic storm onset in the nightside high-latitude ionosphere. The depletions in the dayside high-latitude ionosphere are delayed by a few hours. The equatorward expansion of negative storm effects is found to be regulated by storm intensity (farthest equatorward and deepest during intense storms), season (largest in summer), and time of day (generally deeper on the nightside). In contrast, positive storm effects typically occur on the dayside midlatitude and low-latitude ionospheric regions when the storms are in the main phase, regardless of the season. Closer to the magnetic equator, moderate density enhancements last up to 40 h during the recovery phase of equinox storms, regardless of the local time. Strikingly, high-latitude plasma densities are moderately enhanced for up to 60 h prior to the actual onset of storms during the equinoxes and summer; a potential precursor of a geomagnetic storm.

PC index as a proxy of the solar wind energy that entered into the magnetosphere and energy accumulated in the magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troshichev, Oleg; Sormakov, Dmitry

The PC index has been approved by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (Merida, Mexico, 2013) as a new international index of magnetic activity. Application of the PC index as a proxy of a solar wind energy that entered into the magnetosphere determines a principal distinction of the PC index from AL and Dst indices, which are regarded as characteristics of the energy that realized in magnetosphere in form of substorms and magnetic storms. This conclusion is based on results of analysis of relationships between the polar cap magnetic activity (PC-index) and parameters of the solar wind, on the one hand, relationships between changes of PC and development of magnetospheric substorms (AL-index) and magnetic storms (Dst-index), on the other hand. In this study the relationships between the PC and Dst indices in course of more than 200 magnetic storms observed in epoch of solar maximum (1998-2004) have been examined for different classes of storms separated by their kind and intensity. Results of statistical analysis demonstrate that depression of geomagnetic field starts to develop as soon as PC index steadily excess the threshold level ~1.5 mV/m; the storm intensity (DstMIN) follows, with delay ~ 1 hour, the maximum of PC in course of the storm. Main features of magnetic storms are determined, irrespective of their class and intensity, by the accumulated-mean PC value (PCAM): storm is developed as long as PCAM increases, comes to maximal intensity when PCAM attains the maximum, and starts to decay as soon as PCAM value displays decline. The run of “anomalous” magnetic storm on January 21-22, 2005, lasting many hours (with intensity of ≈ -100 nT) under conditions of northward or close to zero BZ component, is perfectly governed by behavior of the accumulated-mean PCAM index and, therefore, this storm should be regarded as an ordinary phenomenon. The conclusion is made that the PC index provides the unique on-line information on solar wind energy that entered into magnetosphere and PCAM index provides information on energy that accumulated in the magnetosphere.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

2001-01-01

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L.; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A. K.; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R.; Stocchi, Paolo; D'Andrea, William J.; Raymo, Maureen E.

2017-11-01

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ˜128–116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past “superstorms,” they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A K; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R; Stocchi, Paolo; D'Andrea, William J; Raymo, Maureen E

2017-11-14

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128-116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past "superstorms," they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

2017-12-01

Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a positive increase though time. This compliments the results of the track length analysis indicating that as storms intensify faster, they are doing so over a shorter distance. It is expected that this research could be used to improve hurricane track forecasting and provide information about the effects of climate change on tropical systems and the tropical environment.

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

A monitor for continuous measurement of temperature, pH, and conductance of wet precipitation: Preliminary results from the Adirondack Mountains, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnsson, P.A.; Reddy, M.M.

1990-01-01

This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mountains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.This report describes a continuous wet-only precipitation monitor designed by the U.S. Geological Survey to record variations in rainfall temperature, pH, and specific conductance at 1-min intervals over the course of storms. Initial sampling in the Adirondack Mountains showed that rainfall acidity varied over the course of summer storms, with low initial pH values increasing as storm intensity increased.

Convective rain rates and their evolution during storms in a semiarid climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Miller, J. R., Jr.; Ionescu-Niscov, S.

1984-01-01

The semiarid climate of the U.S. northern High Plains region has been studied with respect to rain rates and their evolution during summertime convective storms, using radar data from a total of 750 radar echo clusters. Analysis of this data suggests that the average rain rate R among storms is in a first approximation independent of the total rain volume, if the entire storm duration is considered in the averaging process. R primarily depends on the reflectivity threshold considered in calculating the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the storm. R evolution during storms is analyzed by dividing each storm lifetime into 10 min, 1, 2, and 4 hours, as well as growing and decaying periods. The value of R remained independent of the total rain volume when the growing or decaying periods of storms were considered separately.

Recent Geoeffective Space Weather Events and Technological System Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmon, R. J.; Denig, W. F.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Singer, H. J.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Knipp, D. J.; Kilcommons, L. M.

2015-12-01

We review the state of the space environment for three recent intense geoeffective storms using NOAA observations and model predictions. On February 27, 2014, the US Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) navigation service over eastern Alaska and northeastern continental US was degraded due to a strong ionospheric storm. Similarly, on March 17, the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm commenced, resulting in the most intense storm of the solar cycle to date with mid-latitude auroral sightings, intense ionospheric irregularities and WAAS degradation. On June 22, a strong (G4) geomagnetic storm commenced following the impact of 3 coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Late on June 22, solar protons entered the polar regions along open magnetic field lines producing intense radio absorption. We summarize, compare and contrast the space environmental state for each of these events from the perspective of NOAA observations and model predictions. We do so by leveraging GOES and POES/MetOp observations of the space radiation environment, DMSP observations of precipitating particles and bulk plasma parameters, OVATION Prime predictions of the auroral energy input and the US Total Electron Content (USTEC) and D-Region Absorption Prediction (DRAP) modeled response of the ionosphere. We discuss impacts to technological systems as available.

Testing Taylor’s hypothesis in Amazonian rainfall fields during the WETAMC/LBA experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán; Zuluaga, Manuel D.

2005-11-01

Taylor's hypothesis (TH) for rainfall fields states that the spatial correlation of rainfall intensity at two points at the same instant of time can be equated with the temporal correlation at two instants of time at some fixed location. The validity of TH is tested in a set of 12 storms developed in Rondonia, southwestern Amazonia, Brazil, during the January-February 1999 Wet Season Atmospheric Meso-scale Campaign. The time Eulerian and Lagrangian Autocorrelation Functions (ACF) are estimated, as well as the time-averaged space ACF, using radar rainfall rates of storms spanning between 3.2 and 23 h, measured at 7-10-min time resolution, over a circle of 100 km radius, at 2 km spatial resolution. TH does not hold in 9 out of the 12 studied storms, due to their erratic trajectories and very low values of zonal wind velocity at 700 hPa, independently from underlying atmospheric stability conditions. TH was shown to hold for 3 storms, up to a cutoff time scale of 10-15 min, which is closely related to observed features of the life cycle of convective cells in the region. Such cutoff time scale in Amazonian storms is much shorter than the 40 min identified in mid-latitude convective storms, due to much higher values of CAPE and smaller values of storm speed in Amazonian storms as compared to mid-latitude ones, which in turn contribute to a faster destruction of the rainfall field isotropy. Storms satisfying TH undergo smooth linear trajectories over space, and exhibit the highest negative values of maximum, mean and minimum zonal wind velocity at 700 hPa, within narrow ranges of atmospheric stability conditions. Non-dimensional parameters involving CAPE (maximum, mean and minimum) and CINE (mean) are identified during the storms life cycle, for which TH holds: CAPE mean/CINE mean = [30-35], CAPE max/CINE mean = [32-40], and CAPE min/CINE mean = [22-28]. These findings are independent upon the timing of storms within the diurnal cycle. Also, the estimated Eulerian time ACF's decay faster than the time-averaged space and the Lagrangian time ACF's, irrespectively of TH validity. The Eulerian ACF's exhibit shorter e-folding times, reflecting smaller correlations over short time scales, but also shorter scale of fluctuation, reflecting less persistence in time than over space. No significant associations (linear, exponential or power law) were found between estimated e-folding times and scale of fluctuation, with all estimates of CAPE and CINE. Secondary correlation maxima appear between 50 and 70 min in the Lagrangian time ACF's for storms satisfying TH. No differences were found in the behavior of each of the three ACF's for storms developed during either the Easterly or Westerly zonal wind regimes which characterize the development of meso-scale convective systems over the region. These results have important implications for modelling and downscaling rainfall fields over tropical land areas.

Revised Dst and the epicycles of magnetic disturbance: 1958-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.; Gannon, J.L.

2009-01-01

A revised version of the storm-time disturbance index Dst is calculated using hourly-mean magnetic-observatory data from four standard observatories and collected over the years 1958-2007. The calculation algorithm is a revision of that established by Sugiura et al., and which is now used by the Kyoto World Data Center for routine production of Dst. The most important new development is for the removal of solar-quiet variation. This is done through time and frequency-domain band-stop filtering - selectively removing specific Fourier terms approximating stationary periodic variation driven by the Earth's rotation, the Moon's orbit, the Earth's orbit around the Sun, and their mutual coupling. The resulting non-stationary disturbance time series are weighted by observatory-site geomagnetic latitude and then averaged together across longitudes to give what we call Dst5807-4SH. Comparisons are made with the standard Kyoto D st. Various biases, especially for residual solar-quiet variation, are identified in the Kyoto Dst, and occasional storm-time errors in the Kyoto Dst are noted. Using Dst5807-4SH, storms are ranked for maximum storm-time intensity, and we show that storm-occurrence frequency follows a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff. The epicycles of magnetic disturbance are explored: we (1) map low-latitude local-time disturbance asymmetry, (2) confirm the 27-day storm-recurrence phenomenon using autocorrelation, (3) investigate the coupled semi-annual-diurnal variation of magnetic activity and the proposed explanatory equinoctial and Russell-McPherron hypotheses, and (4) illustrate the well-known solar-cycle modulation of storm-occurrence likelihood. Since Dst5807-4SH is useful for a variety of space physics and solid-Earth applications, it is made freely available to the scientific community.

Readiness of Military Installations for Increasing Heavy Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Yan, E.

2016-12-01

Recent analysis of historical and future precipitation data suggests that the frequency and intensity of heavy storms are in raising trends in most parts of U.S. Majority of the climate models also suggest that increased winter snow pack, and late winter rainfall, may result in groundwater level rise and soil saturation that can lead to potentially severe flooding. The Department of Defense, which own more than 7,000 military installations throughout the world, has also recognized that changes in precipitation and increasing storm frequency and intensity present a real threat to most of its installations and impacting the national security. Identify vulnerabilities is the first step to reduce the risks posed by climate change and associated change in storm magnitude and frequency. In this study, a risk/consequence based approach was applied to evaluating the vulnerability of the Joint Base Lewis-McChord, which is located in suburb of Seattle. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used to design storm water-related infrastructures was evaluated by considering the recent and expected changes in heavy storms in the region. The ability of existing stormwater management system to accommodate the changes in storms was assessed based on expected peaks and volumes of runoff, and suggestions were made to improve their overall effectiveness.

Using Satellite Imagery to Quantify Water Quality Impacts and Recovery from Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobel, R. S.; Kiaghadi, A.; Rifai, H. S.

2017-12-01

Record rainfall during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston-Galveston region generated record flows containing suspended sediment that was likely contaminated. Conventional water quality monitoring requires resource intensive field campaigns, and produces sparse datasets. In this study, satellite data were used to quantify suspended sediment (TSS) concentrations and mass within the region's estuary system and to estimate sediment deposition and transport. A conservative two band, red-green empirical regression was developed from the Sentinel 2 satellite to calculate TSS concentrations and masses. The regression was calibrated with an R2 = 0.73 (n=28) and validated with an R2 = 0.75 (n=12) using 2016 & 2017 imagery. TSS concentrations four days, 14 days, and 44 days post-storm were compared with a reference condition three days before storm arrival. Results indicated that TSS concentrations were an average of 100% higher four days post-storm, and 150% higher after 14 days, however, the average concentration on day 144 was only seven percent higher than the reference condition, suggesting the estuary system is approaching recovery to pre-storm conditions. Sediment masses were determined from the regressed concentrations and water volumes estimated from a bottom elevation grid combined with water surface elevations observed coincidently with the satellite image. While water volumes were only 13% higher on both day four and day 14 post-storm; sediment masses were 195% and 227% higher than the reference condition, respectively. By day 44, estuary sediment mass returned to just 2.9% above the reference load. From a mechanistic standpoint, the elevated TSS concentrations on day four indicated an advection-based regime due to stormwater runoff draining through the estuarine system. Sometime, however, between days 14 and 44, transport conditions switched from advection-dominated to deposition-driven as indicated by the near normal TSS concentrations on day 44.

Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

PubMed

Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

2017-07-20

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Influence of Wave Energetics on Nearshore Storms and Adjacent Shoreline Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; McNinch, J. E.; Hanson, J.

2008-12-01

Large-scale climatic forcings (such as NAO and ENSO) are known to induce fluctuations in regional storm frequency and intensity. Morphology-based studies have traditionally focused on individual storms and their influence on the nearshore coastal wave regime and shoreline response. Few studies have attempted to link long-term observed changes in shoreline position, beach, and nearshore morphology with large-scale climatic forcings that influence regional storm patterns. In order to predict the response of coastlines to future sea level rise and climate change, we need to understand how changes in the frequency of storms affecting nearshore regions (nearshore storms) may influence trends in shoreline position and nearshore morphology. Nearly 30 years of wave data (deep and shallow) collected off of Duck, NC are examined for trends in storm frequency and/or intensity. Changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevation, as observed from monthly beach transects over the same period, are also investigated in light of the observed trends in hydrodynamic forcings. Our preliminary analysis was unable to identify any consistent linear trends (increases or decreases) in frequency or intensity over the ~30-year time period in either the offshore wave heights or the nearshore storm record. These data might suggest that previous observations of recent increases in storm intensity and frequency, speculated to be due to climate change, might be spatially limited. Future analyses will partition the contributions from individual wind sea and swell events in order to better identify long-term trends in wave energetics from the various wave generation regions in the Atlantic. At this location, offshore wave height and the nearshore storm record are dominated by seasonal fluctuations and a strong interdecadal- to decadal periodicity. Previous research in Duck, NC has suggested that changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevations are related both to seasonal trends as well as "storm groupiness". Our analyses support these findings, but also identify interdecadal- to decadal trends in the nearshore morphology. Despite these fluctuations, the overall position of the shoreline and elevation of the shoreface shows little net change over the 30 years investigated. We hypothesize that the interdecadal- to decadal periodicity in the morphology is driven largely by the influences of large-scale climatic forcings on the nearshore wave regime as reflected in the storm record. We also explore the relationship between morphological periodicity, storm and wave height periodicity, and climatic fluctuations.

An updated climatology of explosive cyclones using alternative measures of cyclone intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanley, J.; Caballero, R.

2009-04-01

Using a novel cyclone tracking and identification method, we compute a climatology of explosively intensifying cyclones or ‘bombs' using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim datasets. Traditionally, ‘bombs' have been identified using a central pressure deepening rate criterion (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980). We investigate alternative methods of capturing such extreme cyclones. These methods include using the maximum wind contained within the cyclone, and using a potential vorticity column measure within such systems, as a measure of intensity. Using the different measures of cyclone intensity, we construct and intercompare maps of peak cyclone intensity. We also compute peak intensity probability distributions, and assess the evidence for the bi-modal distribution found by Roebber (1984). Finally, we address the question of the relationship between storm intensification rate and storm destructiveness: are ‘bombs' the most destructive storms?

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 %more » and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.« less

Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

PubMed Central

Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L.; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A. K.; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R.; Stocchi, Paolo; D’Andrea, William J.; Raymo, Maureen E.

2017-01-01

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128–116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past “superstorms,” they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity. PMID:29087331

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

A Study of Oceans and Atmospheric Interactions Associated with Tropical Cyclone Activity using Earth Observing Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Warith; Reddy, Remata

From October 22nd to 30th, 2012 Hurricane Sandy was a huge storm of many abnormalities causing an estimated 50 billion dollars in damage. Tropical storm development states systems’ energy as product of warm sea surface temperatures (SST’s) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). Advances in Earth Observing (EO) technology, remote sensing and proxy remote sensing have allowed for accurate measurements of SST and TCHP information. In this study, we investigated rapid intensification of Sandy through EO applications for precipitable water vapor (PWAT), SST’s and TCHP during the period of October 27th. These data were obtained from NASA and NOAA satellites and NOAA National Buoy data center (NDBC). The Sensible Heat (Qs) fluxes were computed to determine available energy resulting from ocean-atmosphere interface. Buoy 41010, 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral at 0850 UTC measured 22.3 °C atmospheric temperatures and 27 °C SST, an interface of 4.7 °C. Sensible heat equation computed fluxes of 43.7 W/m2 at 982.0 mb central pressure. Sandy formed as late-season storm and near-surface air temperatures averaged > 21 °C according to NOAA/ESRL NCEP/NCAR reanalysis at 1000 mb and GOES 13 (EAST) geostationary water vapor imagery shows approaching cold front during October 27th. Sandy encountered massive dry air intrusion to S, SE and E quadrants of storm while travelling up U.S east coast but experienced no weakening. Cool, dry air intrusion was considered for PWAT investigation from closest sounding station during Oct. 27th 0900 - 2100 UTC at Charleston, SC station 72208. Measured PWAT totaled 42.97 mm, indicating large energy potential supply to the storm. The Gulf Stream was observed using NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) MODIS SST analysis. The results show 5 °C warmer above average than surrounding cooler water, with > 25 °C water extent approximately 400 NM east of Chesapeake Bay and eddies > 26 °C. Results from sensible heat computations for atmospheric interface suggests unusual warmth associated with Gulf Stream current, such that it provided Sandy with enough kinetic energy to intensify at high latitude. The study further suggests that energy gained from Caribbean TCHP and Gulf Stream SST’s were largely retained by Sandy upon losing tropical-cyclone characteristics and merging with strong cold front and polar jet stream. Storms of Sandy’s magnitude and unusual source of energy resulting from Gulf Stream may indicate a building average for tropical cyclone development and intensity for North Atlantic, particularly as the GOM waters continue to warm on seasonal averages.

Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

1997-01-01

We have examined the ISEE 3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high-speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

Combined Global MHD and Test-Particle Simulation of a Radiation Belt Storm: Comparing Depletion, Recovery and Enhancement with in Situ Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorathia, K.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Merkin, V. G.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Lyon, J.; Claudepierre, S. G.; Fennell, J. F.

2017-12-01

During geomagnetic storms the intensities of radiation belt electrons exhibit dramatic variability. In the main phase electron intensities exhibit deep depletion over a broad region of the outer belt. The intensities then increase during the recovery phase, often to levels that significantly exceed their pre-storm values. In this study we analyze the depletion, recovery and enhancement of radiation belt intensities during the 2013 St. Patrick's geomagnetic storm. We simulate the dynamics of high-energy electrons using our newly-developed test-particle radiation belt model (CHIMP) based on a hybrid guiding-center/Lorentz integrator and electromagnetic fields derived from high-resolution global MHD (LFM) simulations. Our approach differs from previous work in that we use MHD flow information to identify and seed test-particles into regions of strong convection in the magnetotail. We address two science questions: 1) what are the relative roles of magnetopause losses, transport-driven atmospheric precipitation, and adiabatic cooling in the radiation belt depletion during the storm main phase? and 2) to what extent can enhanced convection/mesoscale injections account for the radiation belt buildup during the recovery phase? Our analysis is based on long-term model simulation and the comparison of our model results with electron intensity measurements from the MAGEIS experiment of the Van Allen Probes mission.

The annual amount of lightning in just 20 minutes: the October 25th, 2015 super-cell thunderstorm over central Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yair, Y.; Ziv, B.; Lynn, B. H.; Evgeni, K.

2016-12-01

An exceptionally rare Eastern Mediterranean super-cell thunderstorm occurred during the morning hours of October 25th 2015. The storm developed within the northern tip of a Red-Sea trough (extending from Sudan to the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea) off the Egyptian coastline near Alexandria and moved north-west, crossing the Israeli coast just north of Tel-Aviv at 0900 local time. Deep convective cells developed rapidly over the sea, with thunderclouds exhibiting cloud top temperatures colder than -70°C (18 km) and radar reflectivity cores > 65 dBz at 10 km. The storms were accompanied by intensive lightning activity, severe hail, downbursts, and intense rain. The super-cell subsided upon reaching the Jordan rift in eastern Israel. The super-cell caused 1 fatality, extensive flooding and agricultural damages. It also impacted the national electrical network with power outages lasting for 3 days in central Israel. More than 17,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strokes were registered by the lightning detection system of the Israeli Electrical Corporation, exceeding the annual average for the entire country. The average cloud-to-ground flash rates between 0940-0950 and 0950-1000 (local time) were greater than 436 and 430 strokes per minute respectively, exceeding the global record flash rates found in the Argentina-Paraguay border (Zipser et al., 2006). This was the most powerful thunderstorm ever observed in Israel since lightning detection became operational in 1997. Medium-range forecast models such as ECMWF and the GFS missed the timing and severity of this unusual storm. We will present a mesoscale and microphysical analysis of this event to better understand the origins and severity of this rare super-cell. WRF high-resolution simulations with lightning assimilation (Fierro et al., 2012; Lynn et al., 2015) coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (Lynn et al., 2012) will be used in order to evaluate the performance of the WRF for accurately nowcasting such events.

The Response of Mid-Latitude Ionospheric TEC to Geomagnetic Storms and Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Z.; Roussel-Dupre, R.

2004-12-01

The effects of geomagnetic storms and solar flares on the ionosphere are manifested as large magnitude sudden fluctuations in the Total Electron Content (TEC). In this study, the broadband VHF signal (30-100MHz) data from the Los Alamos Portable Pulser (LAPP) received by the FORTE (Fast Onboard Recording of Transient Events) satellite during the period of 1997-2002 are used to investigate the mean TEC variation response to geomagnetic storm. A total of 14 geomagnetic storms are selected where FORTE-LAPP data are available to derive average TECs during extended storm-time and non-storm time for a given storm. The variations in the ionospheric TECs at Los Alamos, New Mexico are investigated for the 14 selected geomagnetic storms. In most cases (12 out of 14), we see overall enhancements in TEC as a result of geomagnetic storm impact at Los Alamos. The relative enhancements in TEC at Los Alamos due to a geomagnetic storm can reach as high as 3-fold of the normal TEC values. The overall absolute enhancements in TEC at Los Alamos are up to about 30 TECU. The magnitude of TEC enhancements is diversified over all storm categories without a clean-cut relationship between the storm intensity and the TEC enhancement. The mean TEC variation response to geomagnetic storm can be complicated when several consecutive storms occurred in a row and a net TEC reduction may be seen. Data of continuous GPS TEC measurements are collected at a 1-minute time resolution during July 2004 when 5 X-class solar flares occurred from two Allen Osborne Associates ICS-4000Z GPS receivers mounted at the Physics Building at Los Alamos National Laboratory. In detecting effects of solar flares on the ionospheric TEC, we apply appropriate filtering to remove the linear trend of TEC and a coherent processing of TEC variations simultaneously for all the visible GPS satellites in a given time interval. The responses of ionospheric TEC at minute time scale to these powerful impulsive solar flares are investigated. The onset time of the ionospheric response and the magnitude of the TEC fluctuations and its time derivative are examined along with their relationships with the solar flux characteristics, duration of the flare and location of the flare on the Sun, X-ray emission variations during the flares, and local time of the flare occurrence.

Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Tess A.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Winslow, Dustin M.

2013-04-01

Studies of extreme precipitation have documented changes at the continental scale during the twentieth century, but few studies have quantified changes at small to regional spatial scales during the same time. We analyze historic data from over 600 precipitation stations in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), California, to assess whether there have been statistically significant changes in extreme precipitation between 1890 and 2010. An annual exceedance probability analysis of extreme precipitation events in the SFBA, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, reveals an increase in the occurrence of large events. The depth-duration-frequency characteristics of maximum annual precipitation events having durations of 1 h to 60 days indicate on average an increase in storm intensity in the last 120 years, with the intensity of the largest (least frequent) events increasing the most. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) also increased during the study period, but the relative increase in extreme event intensity exceeds that of MAP, indicating that a greater fraction of precipitation fell during large events. Analysis of data from subareas within the SFBA region indicates considerable heterogeneity in the observed nonstationarity; for example, the 5 day, 25 year event exceedance depth changed by +26%, +16%, and -1% in San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and San Jose, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of analyzing local data for accurate risk assessment, emergency planning, resource management, and climate model calibration.

Influence of Different Solar Drivers on the Winds in the Middle Atmosphere and on Geomagnetic Disturbances

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-18

number and intensity are highest in sunspot maximum. CME’s are considered the sources of the most intense geomagnetic storms (Gonzalez et al., 2002... storm . High speed solar wind The geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of the solar cycle can be even higher that at sunspot maximum. In...characteristic “calm before the storm ” – the decrease a couple of days before the maximum disturbance – in the case of high speed streams (Borovsky and

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Impact of varying storm intensity and consecutive dry days on grassland soil moisture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intra-annual precipitation patterns are expected to shift toward more intense storms and longer dry periods due to changes in climate within the next decades. Using satellite-derived estimates of plant growth data from 2000-2012, this study quantified the relationship between intra-annual precipitat...

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX-4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, G. M.; Halverson, J.; Ritchie, E.; Simpson, Joanne; Molinari, J.; Tian, L.

2004-01-01

NASA's 4th Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) focused on Atlantic hurricanes during the 2001 hurricane season and it involved both NASA and NOAA participation. The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft were instrumented with unique remote sensing instruments to help increase the overall understanding of hurricanes. This paper is concerned about one of the storms studied, Tropical Storm Chantal, that was a weak storm which failed to intense into a hurricane. One of the practical questions of high importance is why some tropical stoins intensify into hurricanes, and others remain weak or die altogether. The magnitude of the difference between the horizontal winds at lower levels and upper altitudes in a tropical storm, i.e., the wind shear, is one important quantity that can affect the intensification of a tropical storm. Strong shear as was present during Tropical Storm Chantal s lifetime and it was detrimental to its intensification. The paper presents an analysis of unique aircraft observations collected from Chantal including an on-board radar, radiometers, dropsondes, and flight level measurements. These measurements have enabled us to examine the internal structure of the winds and thermal structure of Chantal. Most of the previous studies have involved intense hurricanes that overcame the effects of shear and this work has provided new insights into what prevents a weaker storm from intensifying. The storm had extremely intense thunderstorms and rainfall, yet its main circulation was confined to low levels of the atmosphere. Chantal's thermal structure was not configured properly for the storm to intensify. It is most typical that huricanes have a warm core structure where warm temperatures in upper levels of a storm s circulation help intensify surface winds and lower its central pressure. Chantal had two weaker warm layers instead of a well-defined warm core. These layers have been related to the horizontal and vertical winds and precipitation structure and have helped us learn more about why this storm didn't develop.

(abstract) The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

1996-01-01

We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

Measuring the Storm: Methods of Quantifying Hurricane Exposure in Public Health

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing coastal populations and storm intensity may lead to more adverse health effects from tropical storms and hurricanes. Exposure during pregnancy can influence birth outcomes through mechanisms related to healthcare, infrastructure disruption, stress, nutrition, and inju...

Mapping geoelectric fields during magnetic storms: Synthetic analysis of empirical United States impedances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedrosian, Paul A.; Love, Jeffrey J.

2015-12-01

Empirical impedance tensors obtained from EarthScope magnetotelluric data at sites distributed across the midwestern United States are used to examine the feasibility of mapping magnetic storm induction of geoelectric fields. With these tensors, in order to isolate the effects of Earth conductivity structure, we perform a synthetic analysis—calculating geoelectric field variations induced by a geomagnetic field that is geographically uniform but varying sinusoidally with a chosen set of oscillation frequencies that are characteristic of magnetic storm variations. For north-south oriented geomagnetic oscillations at a period of T0=100 s, induced geoelectric field vectors show substantial geographically distributed differences in amplitude (approximately a factor of 100), direction (up to 130∘), and phase (over a quarter wavelength). These differences are the result of three-dimensional Earth conductivity structure, and they highlight a shortcoming of one-dimensional conductivity models (and other synthetic models not derived from direct geophysical measurement) that are used in the evaluation of storm time geoelectric hazards for the electric power grid industry. A hypothetical extremely intense magnetic storm having 500 nT amplitude at T0=100 s would induce geoelectric fields with an average amplitude across the midwestern United States of about 2.71 V/km, but with a representative site-to-site range of 0.15 V/km to 16.77 V/km. Significant improvement in the evaluation of such hazards will require detailed knowledge of the Earth's interior three-dimensional conductivity structure.

Surface Wind Field Analyses of Tropical Cyclones in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Averaged vertical profiles of actual wind speeds (m s-1) from all dropwindsondes in three ITOP storms . (b) Averaged vertical profiles of wind speeds...for the entire set of winds from the three ITOP 2010 typhoons. .............................1  Figure 27.  a) Storm -relative motion flight track for...1  Figure 28.  a) Storm -relative motion flight track for flight 0420 in TY Fanapi

Reversing storm hotspots on sandy beaches: Spatial and temporal characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

List, J.H.; Farris, A.S.; Sullivan, C.

2006-01-01

Coastal erosion hotspots are defined as sections of coast that exhibit significantly higher rates of erosion than adjacent areas. This paper describes the spatial and temporal characteristics of a recently identified type of coastal erosion hotspot, which forms in response to storms on uninterrupted sandy coasts largely free from human intervention. These are referred to here as reversing storm hotspots because the erosion is reversed by accretion of a similar magnitude to the storm-induced erosion. The accretion occurs within a few days or weeks of fair weather after the storm. Reversing storm hotspots observed here, on two US east coast beaches, have a longshore length averaging 3.86 km, a cross-shore excursion (magnitude of erosion or accretion) averaging 15.4 m, and a time scale of days to weeks associated with individual storm events. These spatial and temporal scales clearly distinguish reversing storm hotspots from previously described forms of longshore variability in erosion, including those attributed to several types of shoreline undulations and hotspots associated with long-term shoreline change. 

Tropical storm interannual and interdecadal variability in an ensemble of GCM integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitart, Frederic Pol.

1999-11-01

A T42L18 Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed SSTs has been integrated for 10 years with 9 different initial conditions. An objective procedure for tracking model-generated tropical storms has been applied to this ensemble. Statistical tools have been applied to the ensemble frequency, intensity and location of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific and the western North Atlantic. An EOF analysis of local SSts and a combined EOF analysis of vertical wind shear, 200 mb and 850 mb vorticity indicate that the simulated tropical storm interannual variability is mostly constrained by the large scale circulation as in observations. The model simulates a realistic interannual variability of tropical storms over the western North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and Australian basin where the model simulates a realistic large scale circulation. Several experiments with the atmospheric GCM forced by imposed SSTs demonstrate that the GCM simulates a realistic impact of ENSO on the simulated Atlantic tropical storms. In addition the GCM simulates fewer tropical storms over the western North Atlantic with SSTs of the 1950s than with SSTs of the 1970s in agreement with observations. Tropical storms simulated with RAS and with MCA have been compared to evaluate their sensitivity to a change in cumulus parameterization. Composites of tropical storm structure indicate stronger tropical storms with higher warm cores with MCA. An experiment using the GFDL hurricane model and several theoretical calculations indicate that the mean state may be responsible for the difference in intensity and in the height of the warm core. With the RAS scheme, increasing the threshold which determines when convection can occur increases the tropical storm frequency almost linearly. The increase of tropical storm frequency seems to be linked to an increase of CAPE. Tropical storms predicted by a coupled model produce a strong cooling of SSTs and their intensity is lower than in the simulations. An ensemble of coupled GCM integrations displays some skill in forecasting the tropical storm frequency when starting on July 1st.

A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bartual, Rafael; Andrés-Doménech, Ignacio

2017-05-01

The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.

Empirical model for the electron density peak height disturbance in response to solar wind conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanch, E.; Altadill, D.

2009-04-01

Geomagnetic storms disturb the quiet behaviour of the ionosphere, its electron density and the electron density peak height, hmF2. Many works have been done to predict the variations of the electron density but few efforts have been dedicated to predict the variations the hmF2 under disturbed helio-geomagnetic conditions. We present the results of the analyses of the F2 layer peak height disturbances occurred during intense geomagnetic storms for one solar cycle. The results systematically show a significant peak height increase about 2 hours after the beginning of the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, independently of both the local time position of the station at the onset of the storm and the intensity of the storm. An additional uplift is observed in the post sunset sector. The duration of the uplift and the height increase are dependent of the intensity of the geomagnetic storm, the season and the local time position of the station at the onset of the storm. An empirical model has been developed to predict the electron density peak height disturbances in response to solar wind conditions and local time which can be used for nowcasting and forecasting the hmF2 disturbances for the middle latitude ionosphere. This being an important output for EURIPOS project operational purposes.

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Dynamical complexity detection in geomagnetic activity indices using wavelet transforms and Tsallis entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, G.; Daglis, I. A.; Papadimitriou, C.; Kalimeri, M.; Anastasiadis, A.; Eftaxias, K.

2008-12-01

Dynamical complexity detection for output time series of complex systems is one of the foremost problems in physics, biology, engineering, and economic sciences. Especially in magnetospheric physics, accurate detection of the dissimilarity between normal and abnormal states (e.g. pre-storm activity and magnetic storms) can vastly improve space weather diagnosis and, consequently, the mitigation of space weather hazards. Herein, we examine the fractal spectral properties of the Dst data using a wavelet analysis technique. We show that distinct changes in associated scaling parameters occur (i.e., transition from anti- persistent to persistent behavior) as an intense magnetic storm approaches. We then analyze Dst time series by introducing the non-extensive Tsallis entropy, Sq, as an appropriate complexity measure. The Tsallis entropy sensitively shows the complexity dissimilarity among different "physiological" (normal) and "pathological" states (intense magnetic storms). The Tsallis entropy implies the emergence of two distinct patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a higher degree of organization, and (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a lower degree of organization.

Dust deposition and ambient PM10 concentration in northwest China: spatial and temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-Xiao; Sharratt, Brenton; Chen, Xi; Wang, Zi-Fa; Liu, Lian-You; Guo, Yu-Hong; Li, Jie; Chen, Huan-Sheng; Yang, Wen-Yi

2017-02-01

Eolian dust transport and deposition are important geophysical processes which influence global bio-geochemical cycles. Currently, reliable deposition data are scarce in central and east Asia. Located at the boundary of central and east Asia, Xinjiang Province of northwestern China has long played a strategic role in cultural and economic trade between Asia and Europe. In this paper, we investigated the spatial distribution and temporal variation in dust deposition and ambient PM10 (particulate matter in aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm) concentration from 2000 to 2013 in Xinjiang Province. This variation was assessed using environmental monitoring records from 14 stations in the province. Over the 14 years, annual average dust deposition across stations in the province ranged from 255.7 to 421.4 t km-2. Annual dust deposition was greater in southern Xinjiang (663.6 t km-2) than northern (147.8 t km-2) and eastern Xinjiang (194.9 t km-2). Annual average PM10 concentration across stations in the province varied from 100 to 196 µg m-3 and was 70, 115 and 239 µg m-3 in northern, eastern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. The highest annual dust deposition (1394.1 t km-2) and ambient PM10 concentration (352 µg m-3) were observed in Hotan, which is located in southern Xinjiang and at the southern boundary of the Taklamakan Desert. Dust deposition was more intense during the spring and summer than other seasons. PM10 was the main air pollutant that significantly influenced regional air quality. Annual average dust deposition increased logarithmically with ambient PM10 concentration (R2 ≥ 0.81). While the annual average dust storm frequency remained unchanged from 2000 to 2013, there was a positive relationship between dust storm days and dust deposition and PM10 concentration across stations. This study suggests that sand storms are a major factor affecting the temporal variability and spatial distribution of dust deposition in northwest China.

A Geochemical Mass-Balance Method for Base-Flow Separation, Upper Hillsborough River Watershed, West-Central Florida, 2003-2005 and 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kish, G.R.; Stringer, C.E.; Stewart, M.T.; Rains, M.C.; Torres, A.E.

2010-01-01

Geochemical mass-balance (GMB) and conductivity mass-balance (CMB) methods for hydrograph separation were used to determine the contribution of base flow to total stormflow at two sites in the upper Hillsborough River watershed in west-central Florida from 2003-2005 and at one site in 2009. The chemical and isotopic composition of streamflow and precipitation was measured during selected local and frontal low- and high-intensity storm events and compared to the geochemical and isotopic composition of groundwater. Input for the GMB method included cation, anion, and stable isotope concentrations of surface water and groundwater, whereas input for the CMB method included continuous or point-sample measurement of specific conductance. The surface water is a calcium-bicarbonate type water, which closely resembles groundwater geochemically, indicating that much of the surface water in the upper Hillsborough River basin is derived from local groundwater discharge. This discharge into the Hillsborough River at State Road 39 and at Hillsborough River State Park becomes diluted by precipitation and runoff during the wet season, but retains the calcium-bicarbonate characteristics of Upper Floridan aquifer water. Field conditions limited the application of the GMB method to low-intensity storms but the CMB method was applied to both low-intensity and high-intensity storms. The average contribution of base flow to total discharge for all storms ranged from 31 to 100 percent, whereas the contribution of base flow to total discharge during peak discharge periods ranged from less than 10 percent to 100 percent. Although calcium, magnesium, and silica were consistent markers of Upper Floridan aquifer chemistry, their use in calculating base flow by the GMB method was limited because the frequency of point data collected in this study was not sufficient to capture the complete hydrograph from pre-event base-flow to post-event base-flow concentrations. In this study, pre-event water represented somewhat diluted groundwater. Streamflow conductivity integrates the concentrations of the major ions, and the logistics of acquiring specific conductance at frequent time intervals are less complicated than data collection, sample processing, shipment, and analysis of water samples in a laboratory. The acquisition of continuous specific conductance data reduces uncertainty associated with less-frequently collected geochemical point data.

The role of precipitation type, intensity, and spatial distribution in source water quality after wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Sheila F.; Writer, Jeffrey H.; Blaine McCleskey, R.; Martin, Deborah A.

2015-08-01

Storms following wildfires are known to impair drinking water supplies in the southwestern United States, yet our understanding of the role of precipitation in post-wildfire water quality is far from complete. We quantitatively assessed water-quality impacts of different hydrologic events in the Colorado Front Range and found that for a three-year period, substantial hydrologic and geochemical responses downstream of a burned area were primarily driven by convective storms with a 30 min rainfall intensity >10 mm h-1. These storms, which typically occur several times each year in July-September, are often small in area, short-lived, and highly variable in intensity and geographic distribution. Thus, a rain gage network with high temporal resolution and spatial density, together with high-resolution stream sampling, are required to adequately characterize post-wildfire responses. We measured total suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and manganese concentrations that were 10-156 times higher downstream of a burned area compared to upstream during relatively common (50% annual exceedance probability) rainstorms, and water quality was sufficiently impaired to pose water-treatment concerns. Short-term water-quality impairment was driven primarily by increased surface runoff during higher intensity convective storms that caused erosion in the burned area and transport of sediment and chemical constituents to streams. Annual sediment yields downstream of the burned area were controlled by storm events and subsequent remobilization, whereas DOC yields were closely linked to annual runoff and thus were more dependent on interannual variation in spring runoff. Nitrate yields were highest in the third year post-wildfire. Results from this study quantitatively demonstrate that water quality can be altered for several years after wildfire. Because the southwestern US is prone to wildfires and high-intensity rain storms, the role of storms in post-wildfire water-quality impacts must be considered when assessing water-quality vulnerability.

The role of precipitation type, intensity, and spatial distribution in source water quality after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Sheila F.; Writer, Jeffrey H.; McCleskey, R. Blaine; Martin, Deborah A.

2015-01-01

Storms following wildfires are known to impair drinking water supplies in the southwestern United States, yet our understanding of the role of precipitation in post-wildfire water quality is far from complete. We quantitatively assessed water-quality impacts of different hydrologic events in the Colorado Front Range and found that for a three-year period, substantial hydrologic and geochemical responses downstream of a burned area were primarily driven by convective storms with a 30 min rainfall intensity >10 mm h−1. These storms, which typically occur several times each year in July–September, are often small in area, short-lived, and highly variable in intensity and geographic distribution. Thus, a rain gage network with high temporal resolution and spatial density, together with high-resolution stream sampling, are required to adequately characterize post-wildfire responses. We measured total suspended sediment, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, and manganese concentrations that were 10–156 times higher downstream of a burned area compared to upstream during relatively common (50% annual exceedance probability) rainstorms, and water quality was sufficiently impaired to pose water-treatment concerns. Short-term water-quality impairment was driven primarily by increased surface runoff during higher intensity convective storms that caused erosion in the burned area and transport of sediment and chemical constituents to streams. Annual sediment yields downstream of the burned area were controlled by storm events and subsequent remobilization, whereas DOC yields were closely linked to annual runoff and thus were more dependent on interannual variation in spring runoff. Nitrate yields were highest in the third year post-wildfire. Results from this study quantitatively demonstrate that water quality can be altered for several years after wildfire. Because the southwestern US is prone to wildfires and high-intensity rain storms, the role of storms in post-wildfire water-quality impacts must be considered when assessing water-quality vulnerability.

Hurricane plenty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friebele, Elaine

If new predictions for above-average hurricane activity in 1997 materialize, the Atlantic Basin will have its most active 3-year hurricane span ever recorded. Colorado State University hurricane forecasters, led by professor William Gray, predict that 11 tropical storms will form in 1997, and that seven will be hurricanes—three of them intense. If the team's prediction unfolds, the period between 1995-1997 will be the most active 3-year period in the last 120 years of hurricane tracking—in contrast with 1991-1994, which was one of the calmest 4-year periods.

Trends in the components of extreme water levels signal a rotation of winds in strong storms in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The water level time series and particularly temporal variations in water level extremes usually do not follow any simple rule. Still, the analysis of linear trends in extreme values of surge levels is a convenient tool to obtain a first approximation of the future projections of the risks associated with coastal floodings. We demonstrate how this tool can be used to extract essential information about concealed changes in the forcing factors of seas and oceans. A specific feature of the Baltic Sea is that sequences of even moderate storms may raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events occur once in a few years. They substantially contribute to the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea: the most devastating coastal floodings occur when a strong storm from unfortunate direction arrives during such an event. We focus on the separation of subtidal (weekly-scale) processes from those which are caused by a single storm and on establishing how much these two kinds of events have contributed to the increase in the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea. The analysis relies on numerically reconstructed sea levels produced by the RCO (Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) ocean model for 1961-2005. The reaction of sea surface to single storm events is isolated from the local water level time series using a running average over a fixed interval. The distribution of average water levels has an almost Gaussian shape for averaging lengths from a few days to a few months. The residual (total water level minus the average) can be interpreted as a proxy of the local storm surges. Interestingly, for the 8-day average this residual almost exactly follows the exponential distribution. Therefore, for this averaging length the heights of local storm surges reflect an underlying Poisson process. This feature is universal for the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. The slopes of the exponential distribution for low and high water levels are different, vary markedly along the coast and provide a useful quantification of the vulnerability of single coastal segments with respect to coastal flooding. The formal linear trends in the extreme values of these water level components exhibit radically different spatial variations. The slopes of the trends in the weekly average are almost constant (~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average) along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. This first of all indicates that the duration of storm sequences has increased. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level extremes. Their slopes are almost zero at the open Baltic Proper coasts of the Western Estonian archipelago. Therefore, an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area. In contrast, the slopes in question reach 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This feature suggests that wind direction in strongest storms may have rotated in the northern Baltic Sea.

76 FR 66891 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-28

... Respondents: 265. Average Hours per Response: StormReady, Tsunami-Ready and StormReady/TsunamiReady... request is for revision of a current information collection. The StormReady, TsunamiReady and and StormReady/TsunamiReady Programs are voluntary programs offered to provide guidance and incentive to...

Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriman, L.

2014-12-01

Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust transport from eastern Australia: a proxy for Holocene aridity and ENSO-type climate variability, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 282. [4] Kimura, R. (2012), Factors contributing to dust storms in source regions producing the yellow-sand phenomena observed in Japan from 1993 to 2002, J. Arid Environ. 80

DMSP observations of high latitude Poynting flux during magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Cheryl Y.; Huang, Yanshi; Su, Yi-Jiun; Hairston, Marc R.; Sotirelis, Thomas

2017-11-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that energy can enter the high-latitude regions of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere (IT) system on open field lines. To assess the extent of high-latitude energy input, we have carried out a study of Poynting flux measured by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites during magnetic storms. We report sporadic intense Poynting fluxes measured by four DMSP satellites at polar latitudes during two moderate magnetic storms which occurred in August and September 2011. Comparisons with a widely used empirical model for energy input to the IT system show that the model does not adequately capture electromagnetic (EM) energy at very high latitudes during storms. We have extended this study to include more than 30 storm events and find that intense EM energy is frequently detected poleward of 75° magnetic latitude.

Effect of geomagnetic storms of different solar origin on the ionospheric TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoori, Azad A.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Purohit, P. K.

2018-05-01

We have studied the behaviour of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) at a mid latitude station Usuda (36.130N, 138.360E), Japan during intense geomagnetic storms which were observed during 23 solar cycle (1998-2006). For the present study we have selected 47 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst≤-100nT), for the given period, which were then categorised into four categories depending upon their solar and interplanetary sources like Magnetic Cloud (MC), Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR), Sheath driven Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (SH+ICME) and Sheath driven Magnetic cloud (SH+MC). From our study we found that the geomagnetic storms significantly affect the ionosphere having any of the solar origin. However the geomagnetic storms which are either caused by SH+MC or SH+ICME produced maximum effect in TEC.

Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2016-12-01

Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach ramps.

Forecasting Dust Storms Using the CARMA-Dust Model and MM5 Weather Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnum, B. H.; Winstead, N. S.; Wesely, J.; Hakola, A.; Colarco, P.; Toon, O. B.; Ginoux, P.; Brooks, G.; Hasselbarth, L. M.; Toth, B.; Sterner, R.

2002-12-01

An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5th generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5), and a modified version of the Colorado Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). AFWA conducted a 60 day evaluation of the dust model to look at the model's ability to forecast dust storms for short, medium and long range (72 hour) forecast periods. The study used satellite and ground observations of dust storms to verify the model's effectiveness. Each of the main mesoscale forecast theaters was broken down into smaller sub-regions for detailed analysis. The study found the forecast model was able to forecast dust storms in Saharan Africa and the Sahel region with an average Probability of Detection (POD)exceeding 68%, with a 16% False Alarm Rate (FAR). The Southwest Asian theater had average POD's of 61% with FAR's averaging 10%.

[Summary of Research on Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance flights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 meters per second and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of, rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intensify. Despite the subsequent weakening of the reformed center, it reached land with greater intensity than the original center. It is argued that this intensification process was set into motion by the vertical wind shear in the presence of an environment with upward motion forced by the upper tropospheric trough. In addition, the new center formed much closer to the coast and made landfall much earlier than predicted. Such vertical shear-induced intensity and track fluctuations are important to understand, especially in storms approaching the coast. The structures of the highly sheared tropical storm Chantal During CAMEX-4 is also discussed.

Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; ...

2010-01-01

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. Whilemore » this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.« less

Magnetospheric conditions for sawtooth event development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noah, M. A.; Burke, W. J.

2014-04-01

This paper addresses two topics concerning the magnetospheric conditions that allow sawtooth events (STEs) to develop during "nonstorm" intervals yet fail to yield them during many intense/super storms. A statistical analysis by Cai et al. (2011) reported that while only 5.4% of STEs occurred outside the context of magnetic storms, their occurrence rate during intense storms was just 63.5%. They concluded that (1) STEs are not necessarily storm time phenomena and (2) particular interplanetary conditions are needed to drive the class of storms in which STEs are generated. Traces of Sym-H indices and cross polar cap potentials during "nonstorm" STEs indicate that ring current energy remained above normal, quiet time values and open flux was continually being transferred to the magnetotail. We combined two independently generated lists of intense/super storms from the 1996 to 2007 period and found that 46 of them did not appear on the STE list of Cai et al. (2011). They divide three categories of storms in which (1) information needed to establish the presence/absence of STEs is insufficient, (2) STE signatures were present but overlooked, and (3) the magnetopause moved earthward of 6.6 RE so that energetic particles cannot gradient-curvature drift to geosynchronous satellites in the magnetosheath near local noon. We conclude that STE identification criteria be expanded to include compressed cases in which quasiperiodic nightside injections occur. Super storms with no nightside injections are attributed to episodes of severe ring current inflation of the inner magnetosphere that inhibited the formation of sustained near-Earth neutral lines.

Barrier Island Failure During Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallenger, A.; Howd, P.; Stockdon, H.; Wright, C. W.; Fauver, L.; Guy, K.

2006-12-01

Classical models of barrier-island response to storms predict that wave runup can periodically overtop an island and transport sand from its seaside to its bayside, forcing the island to migrate landward. While this process can destroy fixed human developments, the island survives with little net change in form or dimensions. In contrast, we find that Louisiana's Chandeleur Islands during Hurricane Katrina were not periodically overtopped by waves, but were continuously inundated by storm surge. When such inundation occurs locally on a barrier island, it can force the erosion of a narrow breach that connects sea and bay. However, little is known about the response of a barrier island when it is entirely submerged. Here, we show that the Chandeleur Islands approached complete failure, losing 84% of their surface area. Their Gulf of Mexico shorelines retreated landward an average of 268 m, the largest retreat ever reported for a storm. Sand was stripped from the islands, reducing their peak elevation from >6 m to <3 m and exposing them to further degradation and potential failure by future hurricanes of less intensity than Katrina. Further, the islands that survived Katrina were marsh remnants composed of mud and vegetation that relatively small waves diminished following the storm. The Chandeleur Islands are prone to failure because of their location on the Mississippi delta where small sand supply and large sea-level rise (induced locally by land subsidence) limit natural rebuilding of the islands following a storm. The response of the delta's barrier islands during Hurricane Katrina provides a warning of how the world's barrier islands might respond to storm-surge inundation should predictions of accelerated global sea level rise prove accurate.

Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demaria, Mark; Baik, Jong-Jin; Kaplan, John

1993-01-01

The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Role of upper-ocean on the intensity of Bay of Bengal cyclone `Phailin' as revealed by coupled simulation using Mesoscale Coupled Modeling System (WRF-ROMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, B.; Mandal, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) track has improved significantly in recent years, but not the intensity. It is well accepted that TC induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in conjunction with pre-existing upper-ocean features have major influences on tropical cyclone intensity. Absence of two-way atmosphere-ocean feedback in the stand-alone atmosphere models has major consequences on their prediction of TC intensity. The present study investigates the role of upper-ocean on prediction of TC intensity and track based on coupled and uncoupled simulation of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclone `Phailin'. The coupled simulation is conducted with the Mesoscale Coupled Modeling System (MCMS) which is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system that includes the non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (WRF-ARW) and the three-dimensional hydrostatic ocean model (ROMS). The uncoupled simulation is performed using the atmosphere component of MCMS i.e., the customized version of WRF-ARW for BoB cyclones with prescribed (RTG) SST. The track and intensity of the storm is significantly better simulated by the MCMS and closely followed the observation. The peak intensity, landfall position and time are accurately predicted by MCMS, whereas the uncoupled simulation over predicted the storm intensity. Validation of storm induced SST cooling with the merged microwave-infrared satellite SST indicates that the MCMS simulation shows better correlation both in terms of spatial spread of cold wake and its magnitude. The analysis also suggests that the Pre-existing Cyclonic Eddy (PCE) observed adjacent to the storm enhanced the TC induced SST cooling. It is observed that the response of SST (i.e., cooling) to storm intensity is 12hr with 95% statistical significance. The air-sea enthalpy flux shows a clear asymmetry between Front Left (FL) and Rear Right (RR) regime to the storm center where TC induced cooling is more than 0.5K/24hr. The analysis of atmospheric boundary layer reveals the formation of persistent stable boundary layer (SBL) over the cold wake, which caused asymmetry in TC structure by quelling convection in the rainbands downstream to the cold wake. The present study signifies the importance of using MCMS in prediction of the BoB cyclone and encourages further investigation with more cyclone cases.

The value of coastal wetlands for hurricane protection.

PubMed

Costanza, Robert; Pérez-Maqueo, Octavio; Martinez, M Luisa; Sutton, Paul; Anderson, Sharolyn J; Mulder, Kenneth

2008-06-01

Coastal wetlands reduce the damaging effects of hurricanes on coastal communities. A regression model using 34 major US hurricanes since 1980 with the natural log of damage per unit gross domestic product in the hurricane swath as the dependent variable and the natural logs of wind speed and wetland area in the swath as the independent variables was highly significant and explained 60% of the variation in relative damages. A loss of 1 ha of wetland in the model corresponded to an average USD 33,000 (median = USD 5000) increase in storm damage from specific storms. Using this relationship, and taking into account the annual probability of hits by hurricanes of varying intensities, we mapped the annual value of coastal wetlands by 1 km x 1 km pixel and by state. The annual value ranged from USD 250 to USD 51,000 ha(-1) yr(-1), with a mean of USD 8240 ha(-1) yr(-1) (median = USD 3230 ha(-1) yr(-1)) significantly larger than previous estimates. Coastal wetlands in the US were estimated to currently provide USD 23.2 billion yr(-1) in storm protection services. Coastal wetlands function as valuable, selfmaintaining "horizontal levees" for storm protection, and also provide a host of other ecosystem services that vertical levees do not. Their restoration and preservation is an extremely cost-effective strategy for society.

Objective Operational Utilization of Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Observations of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, Vincent J.; Cox, Andrew T.

2000-01-01

This study has demonstrated that high-resolution scatterometer measurements in tropical cyclones and other high-marine surface wind regimes may be retrieved accurately for wind speeds up to about 35 mls (1-hour average at 10 m) when the scatterometer data are processed through a revised geophysical model function, and a spatial adaptive algorithm is applied which utilizes the fact that wind direction is so tightly constrained in tile inner core of severe marine storms that wind direction may be prescribed from conventional data. This potential is demonstrated through case studies with NSCAT data in a severe West Pacific Typhoon (Violet, 1996) and an intense North Atlantic hurricane (Lili, 1996). However, operational scatterometer winds from NSCAT and QuickScat in hurricanes and severe winter storms are biased low in winds above 25 m/s. We have developed an inverse model to specify the entire surface wind field about a tropical cyclone from operational QuickScat scatterometer measurements within 150 nm of a storm center with the restriction that only wind speeds up to 20 m/s are used until improved model function are introduced. The inverse model is used to specify the wind field over the entire life-cycle of Hurricane Floyd (1999) for use to drive an ocean wave model. The wind field compares very favorably with wind fields developed from the copious aircraft flight level winds obtained in this storm.

Validating high-resolution California coastal flood modeling with Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, A.

2015-12-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling scheme used to predict coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storms influenced by climate change, currently in use in central California and in development for Southern California (Pt. Conception to the Mexican border). Using a framework of circulation, wave, analytical, and Bayesian models at different geographic scales, high-resolution results are translated as relevant hazards projections at the local scale that include flooding, wave heights, coastal erosion, shoreline change, and cliff failures. Ready access to accurate, high-resolution coastal flooding data is critical for further validation and refinement of CoSMoS and improved coastal hazard projections. High-resolution Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) provides an exceptional data source as appropriately-timed flights during extreme tides or storms provide a geographically-extensive method for determining areas of inundation and flooding extent along expanses of complex and varying coastline. Landward flood extents are numerically identified via edge-detection in imagery from single flights, and can also be ascertained via change detection using additional flights and imagery collected during average wave/tide conditions. The extracted flooding positions are compared against CoSMoS results for similar tide, water level, and storm-intensity conditions, allowing for robust testing and validation of CoSMoS and providing essential feedback for supporting regional and local model improvement.

Storm-time variations of atomic nitrogen 149.3 nm emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Paxton, L. J.; Morrison, D.; Schaefer, B.

2018-04-01

Net radiances of atomic nitrogen emission line (N-149.3 nm) from the thermosphere are extracted from the FUV spectra observed by TIMED/GUVI on dayside at sunlit latitudes. During geomagnetic storms, the N-149.3 nm intensity is clearly enhanced in the locations where O/N2 depletion and nitric oxide (NO) enhancement are observed. The N-149.3 nm intensity is linearly and tightly correlated with N2 LBHS (140-150 nm) radiance with a fixed LBHS/149.3 nm ratio of ∼4.5, suggesting that dissociation of N2 is the dominant source of the N-149.3 nm emission. In the regions without storm disturbances, the N-149.3 nm intensities are closely correlated with solar EUV flux.

Comparison of Ionospheric Parameters during Similar Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagoveshchensky, D. V.

2018-03-01

The degree of closeness of ionospheric parameters during one magnetic storm and of the same parameters during another, similar, storm is estimated. Overall, four storms—two pairs of storms close in structure and appearance according to recording of the magnetic field X-component—were analyzed. The examination was based on data from Sodankyla observatory (Finland). The f-graphs of the ionospheric vertical sounding, magnetometer data, and riometer data on absorption were used. The main results are as follows. The values of the critical frequencies foF2, foF1, and foE for different but similar magnetic storms differ insignificantly. In the daytime, the difference is on average 6% (from 0 to 11.1%) for all ionospheric layers. In the nighttime conditions, the difference for foF2 is 4%. The nighttime values of foEs differ on average by 20%. These estimates potentially make it possible to forecast ionospheric parameters for a particular storm.

Urban stormwater quality, event-mean concentrations, and estimates of stormwater pollutant loads, Dallas-Fort Worth area, Texas, 1992-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baldys, Stanley; Raines, T.H.; Mansfield, B.L.; Sandlin, J.T.

1998-01-01

Local regression equations were developed to estimate loads produced by individual storms. Mean annual loads were estimated by applying the storm-load equations for all runoff-producing storms in an average climatic year and summing individual storm loads to determine the annual load.

Accurately Characterizing the Importance of Wave-Particle Interactions in Radiation Belt Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Statistical Wave Representations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Kyle R.; Mann, Ian R.; Rae, I. Jonathan; Sibeck, David G.; Watt, Clare E. J.

2016-01-01

Wave-particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earths radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm-time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm-time wave power.

Temporal variation of the arterial pressure in healthy young people and its relation to geomagnetic activity in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azcárate, T.; Mendoza, B.; Sánchez de la Peña, S.; Martínez, J. L.

2012-11-01

We present a study of the temporal behavior of the systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure for a sample of 51 normotensive, healthy volunteers, 18 men and 33 women with an average age of 19 years old in Mexico City, Mexico, during April and May, 2008. We divided the data by sex along the circadian rhythm. Three geomagnetic storms occurred during the studied time-span. The strongest one, a moderate storm, is attributed to a coronal hole border that reached the Earth. The ANOVA test applied to the strongest storm showed that even though we are dealing with a moderate geomagnetic storm, there are statistically significant responses of the blood pressure. The superposed epoch analysis during a three-day window around the strongest storm shows that on average the largest changes occurred for the SBP. Moreover, the SBP largest increases occurred two days before and one day after this storm, and women are the most sensitive group as they present larger SBP and DBP average changes than men. Finally, given the small size of the sample, we cannot generalize our results.

Auroral LSTIDs and SAR Arc Occurrences in Northern California During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, A.; Kendall, E. A.

2015-12-01

A 630nm allsky imager has been operated for two years in northern California at the Hat Creek Radio Observatory. F-region airglow data captured by the imager ranges from approximately L=1.7 -2.7. Since installation of the imager several geomagnetic storms have occurred with varying intensities. Two main manifestations of the geomagnetic storms are observed in the 630 nm airglow data: large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances that are launched from the auroral zone and Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs during more intense geomagnetic storms. We will present a statistical analysis of these storm-time phenomena in northern California for the past eighteen months. This imager is part of a larger all-sky imaging network across the continental United States, termed MANGO (Midlatitude All-sky-imaging Network for Geophysical Observations). Where available, we will add data from networked imagers located at similar L-shell in other states as well.

Climatology of severe hailstorms in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, J. D. C.; Elsom, D. M.; Reynolds, D. J.

The annual and seasonal frequency, geographical distribution, and intensity of British hailstorms are examined. In 1986, the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) developed a Hailstorm Intensity Scale to characterise around 2500 hailstorms known to have occurred in Great Britain since the first documented hailstorm event of 1141 AD. The most intense British hailstorm reached intensity H8 on the TORRO international scale which extends from intensities H0 to H10. This paper focuses on over 800 hailstorms that reached TORRO intensity of H3 or more, the "severe" category. Analyses are presented for the historical period and the most recent 50-year period, 1950 to 1999. Consideration is given to examining the 50 most intense hailstorms (TORRO intensity H5-6 or more) known to have occurred in Britain since 1650. These storms all occurred between the months of May and September with a well-defined peak during July. These exceptional storms typically followed a track from the S, SSW or SW to the N, NNE or NE with a swath length of 25 km or more (reaching 335 km in one case) and a swath width sometimes in excess of 10 km.

Enhanced object-based tracking algorithm for convective rain storms and cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, Carlos; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a new object-based storm tracking algorithm, based upon TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting). TITAN is a widely-used convective storm tracking algorithm but has limitations in handling small-scale yet high-intensity storm entities due to its single-threshold identification approach. It also has difficulties to effectively track fast-moving storms because of the employed matching approach that largely relies on the overlapping areas between successive storm entities. To address these deficiencies, a number of modifications are proposed and tested in this paper. These include a two-stage multi-threshold storm identification, a new formulation for characterizing storm's physical features, and an enhanced matching technique in synergy with an optical-flow storm field tracker, as well as, according to these modifications, a more complex merging and splitting scheme. High-resolution (5-min and 529-m) radar reflectivity data for 18 storm events over Belgium are used to calibrate and evaluate the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with that of the original TITAN. The results suggest that the proposed algorithm can better isolate and match convective rainfall entities, as well as to provide more reliable and detailed motion estimates. Furthermore, the improvement is found to be more significant for higher rainfall intensities. The new algorithm has the potential to serve as a basis for further applications, such as storm nowcasting and long-term stochastic spatial and temporal rainfall generation.

Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

PubMed

Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

2015-02-24

Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

Observed ocean waves by tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Oey, Leo

2017-04-01

Ocean waves produced by tropical cyclones (TC) modify air-sea fluxes which in turn are crucial to the storms' intensity and development, yet they are poorly understood. Here we use 24 years (1992-2015) of observed waves, winds and TC-track information to stratify storm-centered composite maps of waves and winds according to TC intensities and translation speeds (Uh). While the wind field is rightward-asymmetric independent of Uh, the wave field is rightward-symmetric in concert with the wind for slow-translating TCs (Uh ≤ 3 m s-1), but right-rear asymmetric with strongest waves in the 4th quadrant for medium to fast-translating TCs (3 < Uh ≤ 7 m s-1), especially for the very fast storms (Uh > 7 m s-1), all independent of TC-intensity. The dominance of the right-rear asymmetry for fast-translating TCs appears to be related to the development of cross swells as the storms move faster, but further research using models are needed to understand the physical mechanisms.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Won; Stein, Michael L.; Wang, Jiali

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (2-3%/K in the global average). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitationmore » over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 100 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller; in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.« less

Physical and Chemical Properties of Seasonal Snow and the Impacts on Albedo in New Hampshire, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Amante, J.; Dibb, J. E.

2014-12-01

Snow albedo is critical to surface energy budgets and thus to the timing of mid-winter and vernal melt events in seasonal snow packs. Timing of these melt events is important in predicting flooding, understanding plant and animal phenology, and the availability of winter recreational activity. The state of New Hampshire experiences large spatial and temporal variability in snow albedo as a result of differences in meteorological conditions, physical snow structure, and chemical impurities in the snow, particularly highly absorptive black carbon (BC) and dust particles. This work focuses on the winters of 2012-2013 and 2013-2014, comparing three intensive study sites. Data collected at these sites include sub-hourly meteorological data, near daily measurements of snow depth, snow density, surface IR temperature, specific surface area (SSA) from contact spectroscopy, and spectrally resolved snow albedo using an ASD FieldSpec4 throughout the winter season. Additionally, snow samples were analyzed for black carbon content and other chemical impurities including Cl-, NO3-, NH4 , K , Na , Mg2+ , Ca2+ and SO42-. For each storm event at the three intensive sites, moisture sources and paths were determined using HYPLIT back trajectory modeling to determine potential sources of black carbon and other impurities in the snow. Storms with terrestrial-based paths across the US Midwest and Canada resulted in higher BC content than storms with ocean-based paths and sources. In addition to the variable storm path between sites and between years, the second year of study was on average 2.5°C colder than the first year, impacting duration of snow cover at each site and the SSA of surface snow which is sensitive to frequency of snow events and relies on cold temperatures to reduce grain metamorphism. Combining an understanding of storm frequency and path with physical and chemical attributes of the snow allows us to investigate snow albedo sensitivities with implications for understanding the impacts of future climate change on snow albedo in the Northeastern US.

Climatic Change and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Storm-tracks: Changes in Transient Eddies Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

An evidence of our understanding of the general circulation is whether we can predict changes in the general circulation that might be associated with past or future climate changes. Changes in the location, intensity or seasonality of major climatological features of the general circulation could be more important than average temperature changes, particularly where these changes could affect local hydrology, energy balances, etc. Under these major climatological features we assume the poleward expansion of the tropical circulation (Hadley circulation), static stability (changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere), role of SST forcing, sea ice extension, extratropical eddies behavior. We have a question: would the climate change significantly affect the location and intensity of midlatitude storm-tracks and associated jets? Mean-flow interaction in midlatitudes produces low-frequency variations in the latitude of the jets. It is reasonable to think that a modest climate change might significantly affects the jets location and their associated storm tracks. The storm-tracks are defined as the region of strong baroclinicity (maximum meridional temperature gradient), which are determined on the basis of eddy statistics like eddy fluxes of angular momentum, energy, and water (with the use of high-bandpass filter). In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two major storms: in the region of Atlantic and Pacific. The storm-tracks play important role in the dynamics of weather and climate. They affect the global energy cycle and the hydrological cycle, and as a result they bring heavy rains and other hazardous weather phenomena in the middle latitudes. The recent increase in global tropopause heights is closely associated with systematic temperature changes below and above the tropopause. Temperature increases in the troposphere and decreases in the stratosphere. The pattern of warming and cooling also affects the zonal wind structure in the region of the subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Extratropical tropospheric eddies play a central role in this mechanism. The eddies tend to move eastward with the zonal flow and equatorward toward the subtropics until they reach their critical latitudes, where their phase speed equals the speed of the background zonal flow. This work is partially supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (con-tract #8345), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #11-05-01190a, and integrated project SB RAS #131.

Loading of fecal indicator bacteria in North Carolina tidal creek headwaters: hydrographic patterns and terrestrial runoff relationships.

PubMed

Stumpf, Curtis H; Piehler, Michael F; Thompson, Suzanne; Noble, Rachel T

2010-09-01

In the New River Estuary (NRE) in eastern North Carolina (NC), fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels exceed water quality standards, leading to closure of estuarine waters for shellfishing and classification of parts of the estuary as "impaired" per the Clean Water Act section 303(d) list. As a means to investigate fecal contamination and loading of FIB to the NRE, a continuous automated sampler (ISCO) outfitted with flow modules and water quality probes was placed in four first-order tidal creek headwaters. Total storm discharge and bacterial load for Escherichia coli (EC) and Enterococcus spp. (ENT) were calculated using graphical volumetric flow calculations and interpolation of FIB measurements over each storm's duration for 10 storms. Mean total load of 10(9)-10(12) EC and ENT cells (MPN) occurred over the course of each storm. Total storm loading, averaged across all storms, was as much as 30 and 37 times greater than equivalent duration of baseflow loading for EC and ENT, respectively. Within the first 30% of creek storm volume for all storms and all creeks combined, a mean cumulative load of only 37% and 44% of the total EC and ENT cells, respectively, was discharged, indicating these creeks are not demonstrating a 'first flush' scenario for FIB. The median storm Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) were 6.37 × 10(2) and 2.03 × 10(2) MPN/100 mL, for EC and ENT, respectively, compared with median baseflow concentrations of 1.48 × 10(2) and 4.84 × 10(1) for EC and ENT, respectively, and were significantly different between base and storm flow events. FIB was correlated with TSS (weak), flow rate (strong), and different stages (base, rising, peak, and falling) of the hydrograph (strong). Pollutographs indicate large intra-storm variability of FIB, and the need for more intensive sampling throughout a storm in order to attain accurate FIB contaminant estimates. Instream sediment concentrations ranged from 5 to 478 (MPN/g) and 13 to 776 (MPN/g) for EC and ENT, respectively, indicating sediment as a source, but a minor reservoir. This overall approach for calculating loading in headwater tidal creeks is detailed. Accurate loading characterization of FIB during storms and dry weather conditions, and understanding intra-storm FIB concentrations, is imperative for understanding patterns of water quality impairment, establishing management planning, and developing appropriate mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phosphorus loads from different urban storm runoff sources in southern China: a case study in Wenzhou City.

PubMed

Zhou, Dong; Bi, Chun-Juan; Chen, Zhen-Lou; Yu, Zhong-Jie; Wang, Jun; Han, Jing-Chao

2013-11-01

Storm runoff from six types of underlying surface area during five rainfall events in two urban study areas of Wenzhou City, China was investigated to measure phosphorus (P) concentrations and discharge rates. The average event mean concentrations (EMCs) of total phosphorus (TP), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and particulate phosphorus (PP) ranged from 0.02 to 2.5 mg · L(-1), 0.01 to 0.48 mg · L(-1), and 0.02 to 2.43 mg · L(-1), respectively. PP was generally the dominant component of TP in storm runoff, while the major form of P varied over time, especially in roof runoff, where TDP made up the largest portion in the latter stages of runoff events. Both TP and PP concentrations were positively correlated with pH, total suspended solids (TSS), and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD)/chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentrations (p<0.01), while TDP was positively correlated with BOD/COD only (p<0.01). In addition, the EMCs of TP and PP were negatively correlated with maximum rainfall intensity (p<0.05), while the EMCs of TDP positively correlated with the antecedent dry weather period (p<0.05). The annual TP emission fluxes from the two study areas were 367.33 and 237.85 kg, respectively. Underlying surface type determined the TP and PP loadings in storm runoff, but regional environmental conditions affected the export of TDP more significantly. Our results indicate that the removal of particles from storm runoff could be an effective measure to attenuate P loadings to receiving water bodies.

Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.

2006-01-01

Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Evaluation and development of satellite inferences of convective storm intensity using combined case study and thunderstorm model simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, W. R.; Tripoli, G. J.

1982-01-01

Observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments are examined. Recent 3D numerical experiments are interpreted with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts. The development of software for emulating satellite inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data and the simulation of Heymsfield (1981) Northern Illinois storm are described as well as the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

Effect high intensity storms on soil slippage on mountainous watersheds in Southern California

Treesearch

R. M. Rice; G. T. Foggin

1971-01-01

The conversion of brush areas to grassland increased soil slip erosion on mountainous watersheds in southern California during the intense winter storms of 1969. The incidence of soil slippage, site factors affecting slope stability, and amount of debris generated by slippage were investigated for sample brush and grass areas in the San Dimas Experimental Forest. Soil...

Hydrological Controls on Nutrient Concentrations and Fluxes in Agricultural Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petry, J.; Soulsby, C.

2002-12-01

This investigation into diffuse agricultural pollution and the hydrological controls that exert a strong influence on both nutrient concentrations and fluxes, was conducted in an intensively farmed lowland catchment in north-east Scotland. The study focuses on spatial and seasonal variations in nutrient concentrations and fluxes at the catchment scale, over a 15-month period. The water quality of the 14.5 km2 Newmills Burn catchment has relatively high nutrient levels with mean concentrations of NO3-N and NH3-N at 6.09 mg/l and 0.28 mg/l respectively. Average PO4-P concentrations are 0.06 mg/l. Over short timescales nutrient concentrations and fluxes are greatest during storm events when PO4-P and NH3-N are mobilised by overland flow in riparian areas, where soils have been compacted by livestock or machinery. Delivery of deeper soil water in subsurface storm flow, facilitated by agricultural under-drainage, produces a marked increase in NO3-N (6.9 mg/l) concentrations on the hydrograph recession limb. A more detailed insight into the catchment response to storm events, and in particular the response of the hydrological pathways which provide the main sources of runoff during storm events, was gained by sampling stream water at 2-hourly intervals during 5 events. End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) was carried out using event specific end-member chemistries to differentiate three catchment-scale hydrological pathways (overland flow, subsurface storm flow, groundwater flow) on the basis of observed Si and NO3-N concentrations in sampled source waters. Results show that overland flow generally dominates the storm peak and provides the main flow path by which P is transferred to stream channels during storm events, whilst subsurface storm flows usually dominate the storm hydrograph volumetrically and route NO3-rich soil water to the stream. The study shows that altering hydrological pathways in a catchment can have implications for nutrient management. Whilst buffer strips can reduce the delivery of NH3-N and PO4-P by overland flow to stream channels during storm events, the management of N-rich storm runoff as NO3 via sub-surface drains would require significant interference with the drainage network. This could have a negative impact on agricultural production in the catchment.

Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Nair, Udaysankar; Haines, Stephanie L.

2006-01-01

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explores the possibility of using near-real-time medium and high spatial resolution satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observing System satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms: the La Plata, Maryland, storm of 28 April 2002 and the Ellsinore and Marquand, Missouri, storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity and occurred over regions with significantly different land cover. It was found that, depending on the nature of the land cover, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F1 or greater) and hail storms may be evident in ASTER, Landsat, and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas where the land cover is dominated by forests, the scar patterns can show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not as obvious or cannot be seen at all in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2002 Marquand, Missouri, tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery depends on the ability to observe the ground without obstruction from space and appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land cover as on the severity of the tornadic storm.

A high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014)—Part I: Model verification and surface energetics analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xinghai; Duan, Yihong; Wang, Yuqing; Wei, Na; Hu, Hao

2017-06-01

A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate ( ɛ g), defined as the difference between the energy production ( P D) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation ( D S) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ɛ g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the ɛ g decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the DS increases more rapidly than the P D near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the D S is about 20% larger than the P D near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the P D and D S can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local P D under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the D S, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.

The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

1996-01-01

We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense (Dst< -100(sub n)T) magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms. The three storms have a peak Dst ranging from -150 to -220 nT, and occur on Jan. 9, Feb. 4, and Aug. 8, 1993.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

Mesoscale Coastal Behavior of a Deltaic Barrier Island: Storm-Driven Evolution and Morphodynamic Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespremeanu-Stroe, Alfred; Zăinescu, Florin; Tătui, Florin; Preoteasa, Luminişa

2017-04-01

Barrier islands and spits are among the most dynamic and vulnerable coastal features. Sacalin formed at the southernmost Danube mouth (Sfântu Gheorghe arm), representing the youngest downdrift island/spit of the Sfântu Gheorghe deltaic lobe, which previously formed several similar downdrift barrier islands during its cyclic pattern of long-term development (1400 BP - present). In this study, we document a 120 yr record of coastal changes that occurred since the emergence of Sacalin Island (1897), following a major flood, occasioned by its development through constant elongation (towards south) and backwards migration. The barrier island/spit is frequently breached in the central part (narrow inlets) and it experiences episodes of large elongation and retreat rates (up to 300 m/year and 60 m/year). Using successive georeferenced maps, satellite images and field measurements, we derived several morphodynamic indices which were analysed in correspondence with the storm climate. The coastal storms temporal variability shows four active intervals (1962-1972, 1975-1977, 1995-1998, 2002-2004) with highly intensive erosional and accretional processes, and three calm periods (1989-1994, 1999-2001, 2005-2015), with a decrease of 40-70 % of the shoreline migration rates. On the other hand, the successive barrier configurations show a distinct evolutionary pattern of its central sector, controlled by the (subaerial) barrier widths. Thus, following an extraordinary high storm (or storm season), the narrower barrier sectors will benefit from a new generation of breach deposition and washover fans. They will further contribute to the reconfiguration of the barrier on a backward position, where it attains significantly larger widths (250-500 m for the subaerial part) which for a while will inhibit the new large overwash formation able to expand the barrier into the lagoon. After such a "widening episode", the time intervals of barrier backline stability (i.e. unaffected by overwash) are of 10-30 years, depending on the storm climate. Therefore, the multi-decadal transformations of the central Sacalin depend on the interplay between storm regime and barrier widths, which points to a major influence of the morphodynamic feedbacks in modulating the storm morphological impact and imposing a rhythmic evolution of the barrier, with the narrow sectors becoming wide and vice-versa. Nevertheless, large oscillations in storm regime may induce unusual barrier morphodynamics. It was the case of the last calm interval (2005-2015), in fact an exceptional negative anomaly, when the storm frequency decreased to half of the multi-decadal average. As a consequence, the formation of washover fans was inhibited and restricted to only a few small-size fans, contributing to the unprecedented central barrier narrowing. In these conditions, during 2012-2013 winter, an atypical southern storm (December 2012), very short but intense, produced a high storm surge which caused massive overtopping in the central part of the spit, favoured by the small width of the island in this sector, creating an exceptional large breach (of ca. 2 km). In the next two months, even low storms enlarged the breach, transforming it into the biggest breaching (3.5 km wide) ever recorded in more than 100 yr of Sacalin evolution. This case documents how a prolonged low storminess interval may trigger barrier island destabilisation or even destruction.

Storm orientation impacts on atmospheric river induced precipitation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) along the Pacific North coast are often associated with heavy winter precipitation and flooding. We analyze 35 years (1981 2016) of landfalling ARs over a transect along the U.S. West Coast consisting of four river basins from coastal Washington to Southern California (Chehalis, Russian, Santa Ana, and Santa Margarita Rivers) to assess the impact of storm orientation on precipitation rainout efficiency. We define precipitation rainout efficiency as the correlation coefficient between the net integrated vapor transport and precipitation rate. We use 6-hourly climate data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for each of the landfalling ARs. We compute storm orientation from CFSR wind vectors (daily averaged over atmospheric levels between 1000 hPa and 300 hPa) associated with each AR event. We also compute integrated vapor transport (IVT) by multiplying precipitable water by the wind vector and compare with daily averaged precipitation averaged over the river basins, where daily precipitation is taken from Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) to evaluate the impact of storm orientation on rainfall efficiency. We calculate the local topographic orientation of each river basin (slope and aspect) from ArcGIS, which we related to storm orientation. To evaluate the impact of storm orientation on rainout efficiency over the Russian River basin (Northern California), we first calculated approaching IVT (for all of AR induced precipitations from 1981 to 2016) and daily averaged precipitation rate. Next, we calculated the correlation coefficient between IVT and precipitation rate (for all AR induced rainouts over the Russian River basin). Finally, by considering the local topographical changes (slope and aspect from ArcGIS) and integrating them into an effective IVT, we compared the correlation coefficients between actual and effective IVT and basin-average precipitation. We find that over the Russian River basin, the rainout efficiency increases from 55 to 75 % when we account for storm orientation relative to topography.

Aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inamdar, Shreeram; Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.

2017-01-01

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as tropical storms and hurricanes, thunderstorms, heat waves, droughts, ice storms, and snow storms have increased and are projected to further increase in intensity and frequency across the world. These events are expected to have significant consequences for aquatic ecosystems with the potential for large changes in ecosystem processes, responses, and functions.

Grain-size analysis and sediment dynamics of hurricane-induced event beds in a coastal New England pond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castagno, K. A.; Ruehr, S. A.; Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.

2017-12-01

Coastal populations have grown increasingly susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclone events as they grow in size, wealth, and infrastructure. Changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, augmented by a changing climate, pose an increasing threat of property damage and loss of life. Reconstructions of intense-hurricane landfalls from a series of southeastern New England sediment cores identify a series of events spanning the past 2,000 years. Though the frequency of these landfalls is well constrained, the intensity of these storms, particularly those for which no historical record exists, is not. This study analyzes the grain-size distribution of major storm event beds along a transect of sediment cores from a kettle pond in Falmouth, MA. The grain-size distribution of each event is determined using an image processing, size, and shape analyzer. The depositional patterns and changes in grain-size distribution in these fine-grained systems may both spatially and temporally reveal characteristics of both storm intensity and the nature of sediment deposition. An inverse-modeling technique using this kind of grain-size analysis to determine past storm intensity has been explored in back-barrier lagoon systems in the Caribbean, but limited research has assessed its utility to assess deposits from back-barrier ponds in the northeastern United States. Increases in hurricane intensity may be closely tied to increases in sea surface temperature. As such, research into these prehistoric intervals of increased frequency and/or intensity provides important insight into the current and future hurricane risks facing coastal communities in New England.

Response of the Ionospheric F-region in the Latin American Sector During the Intense Geomagnetic Storm of 21-22 January 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahai, Y.; Fagundes, P. R.; de Jesus, R.; de Abreu, A. J.; Crowley, G.; Pillat, V. G.; Guarnieri, F. L.; Abalde, J. R.; Bittencourt, J. A.

2009-12-01

Ionospheric storms are closely associated with geomagnetic storms and are an extreme example of space weather events. The response of the ionosphere to storms is rather complicated. In the present investigation, we have studied the response of the ionospheric F-region in the Latin American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm of 21-22 January 2005 (with storm sudden commencement (SSC) at 1712 UT on 21 January). This geomagnetic storm is anomalous (minimum Dst reached -105 nT at 0700 UT on 22 January) because the main phase occurred during the northward excursion of the Bz component of interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs). The monthly mean F10.7 solar flux for the month of January 2005 was 99.0 sfu. The ionospheric F-region parameters observed at Ramey (18.5 N, 67.1 W; RAM), Puerto Rico, Jicamarca (12.0 S, 76.8 W; JIC), Peru, Manaus (2.9 S, 60.0 W; MAN), and São José dos Campos (23.2 S, 45.9 W; SJC), Brazil, during 21-22 January (geomagnetically disturbed) and 25 January (geomagnetically quiet) have been analyzed. Both JIC and MAN, the equatorial stations, show unusually rapid uplifting of the F-region peak heights(hpF2/hmF2) and a decrease in the NmF2 coincident with the time of SSC. At both RAM and SJC an uplifting of the F-region peak height is observed at about 2000 UT. The low-latitude station SJC shows a coincident decrease in NmF2 with the uplifting, whereas the mid-latitude station RAM shows a decrease in NmF2 earlier than the uplifting. Also, the observed variations in the F-region ionospheric parameters are compared with the TIMEGCM model run for 21-22 January and the model results show both similarities and differences from the observed results. Average GPS-TEC (21-22 and 25 January) and phase fluctuations (21, 22, 25, 26 January) observed at Belem (1.5 S, 48.5 W; BELE), Brasilia (15.9 S, 47.9 W; BRAZ), Presidente Prudente (22.3o S, 51.4 W; UEPP), and Porto Alegre (30.1 S, 51.1 W; POAL), Brazil, are also presented. These GPS stations belong to the RBMC/IBGE network of Brazil. Few hours after the onset of the storm, large enhancements in VTEC between 2000 and 2400 UT on 21 January was observed at all the stations. However, the increase in VTEC was greater at the near equatorial station and enhancements in VTEC decreased with latitude. No phase fluctuations were observed during the pre-reversal time during the geomagnetic disturbance (21 January).

The storm-time assessment of GNSS-SBAS performance within low latitude African region using a testbed-like platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, O. E.; Paparini, C.; Ngaya, R. H.; Otero Villamide, X.; Radicella, S. M.; Nava, B.

2017-09-01

A Satellite Based Augmentation System (SBAS) is designed to improve Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in terms of integrity, accuracy, availability and continuity. The main limitation to SBAS performance optimization is the ionosphere, and this is more critical in low latitude. During geomagnetically disturbed periods the role of storm-time winds is important because they modify the atmospheric composition toward low latitudes. An index of ionospheric disturbance, the relative percentage of deviation of the vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) from the quiet level (DvTEC) at each station was evaluated to study positive and negative phases of the geomagnetic storms. The rate of change of TEC index (ROTI) over all the GNSS stations was estimated to evaluate equatorial ionospheric gradients and irregularities. From the study it is observed that the positive deviations are more frequent than negative ones. The availability map, which is the mean of the combine Vertical Protection Level (VPL) and Horizontal Protection Level (HPL) are used for the SBAS performance. The cases of moderate and minor storms studied during the months of July and October 2013 showed that the SBAS system performance during the disturbed periods depends on the local time in which the storm occurs, geographic longitude and other phenomena that need further study. During the storm-time conditions considered, three out of seven geomagnetic storms indicated good SBAS performance and exceed monthly average of the availability map, three geomagnetic storms reduced the system performance below monthly average while one does not have effect on SBAS system performance in respect to monthly average. The present study indicates ROTI as a better proxy than geomagnetic indices for the assessment of storm-time effects on GNSS-SBAS performance.

Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Structure and Intensity Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones, including genesis, intensity change, and extratropical transition. A secondary objective is to understand... storm -centered assimilation algorithm. Basic research in Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the...COMPLETED For the four storms consider (Nuri, Jangmi, Sinlaku, and Hagupit), an 80-member EnKF has been cycled on observations (surface, rawinsondes, GPS

Calcification, Storm Damage and Population Resilience of Tabular Corals under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Madin, Joshua S.; Hughes, Terry P.; Connolly, Sean R.

2012-01-01

Two facets of climate change–increased tropical storm intensity and ocean acidification–are expected to detrimentally affect reef-building organisms by increasing their mortality rates and decreasing their calcification rates. Our current understanding of these effects is largely based on individual organisms’ short-term responses to experimental manipulations. However, predicting the ecologically-relevant effects of climate change requires understanding the long-term demographic implications of these organism-level responses. In this study, we investigate how storm intensity and calcification rate interact to affect population dynamics of the table coral Acropora hyacinthus, a dominant and geographically widespread ecosystem engineer on wave-exposed Indo-Pacific reefs. We develop a mechanistic framework based on the responses of individual-level demographic rates to changes in the physical and chemical environment, using a size-structured population model that enables us to rigorously incorporate uncertainty. We find that table coral populations are vulnerable to future collapse, placing in jeopardy many other reef organisms that are dependent upon them for shelter and food. Resistance to collapse is largely insensitive to predicted changes in storm intensity, but is highly dependent on the extent to which calcification influences both the mechanical properties of reef substrate and the colony-level trade-off between growth rate and skeletal strength. This study provides the first rigorous quantitative accounting of the demographic implications of the effects of ocean acidification and changes in storm intensity, and provides a template for further studies of climate-induced shifts in ecosystems, including coral reefs. PMID:23056379

Near doubling of storm rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Zhe

2017-12-01

Large, intense thunderstorms frequently cause flooding and fatalities. Now, research finds that these storms may see a threefold increase in frequency and produce significantly heavier downpours in the future, far exceeding previous estimates.

Crossing the front: contrasting storm-forced dispersal dynamics revealed by biological, geological and genetic analysis of beach-cast kelp.

PubMed

Waters, Jonathan M; King, Tania M; Fraser, Ceridwen I; Craw, Dave

2018-03-01

The subtropical front (STF) generally represents a substantial oceanographic barrier to dispersal between cold-sub-Antarctic and warm-temperate water masses. Recent studies have suggested that storm events can drastically influence marine dispersal and patterns. Here we analyse biological and geological dispersal driven by two major, contrasting storm events in southern New Zealand, 2017. We integrate biological and physical data to show that a severe southerly system in July 2017 disrupted this barrier by promoting movement of substantial numbers of southern sub-Antarctic Durvillaea kelp rafts across the STF, to make landfall in mainland NZ. By contrast, a less intense easterly storm (Cyclone Cook, April 2017) resulted in more moderate dispersal distances, with minimal dispersal between the sub-Antarctic and mainland New Zealand. These quantitative analyses of approximately 200 freshly beach-cast kelp specimens indicate that storm intensity and wind direction can strongly influence marine dispersal and landfall outcomes. © 2018 The Author(s).

Noninvasive optical monitoring multiple physiological parameters response to cytokine storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zebin; Li, Ting

2018-02-01

Cancer and other disease originated by immune or genetic problems have become a main cause of death. Gene/cell therapy is a highlighted potential method for the treatment of these diseases. However, during the treatment, it always causes cytokine storm, which probably trigger acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiple organ failure. Here we developed a point-of-care device for noninvasive monitoring cytokine storm induced multiple physiological parameters simultaneously. Oxy-hemoglobin, deoxy-hemoglobin, water concentration and deep-tissue/tumor temperature variations were simultaneously measured by extended near infrared spectroscopy. Detection algorithms of symptoms such as shock, edema, deep-tissue fever and tissue fibrosis were developed and included. Based on these measurements, modeling of patient tolerance and cytokine storm intensity were carried out. This custom device was tested on patients experiencing cytokine storm in intensive care unit. The preliminary data indicated the potential of our device in popular and milestone gene/cell therapy, especially, chimeric antigen receptor T-cell immunotherapy (CAR-T).

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Kinetic energy budgets during the life cycle of intense convective activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1978-01-01

Synoptic-scale data at three- and six-hour intervals are employed to study the relationship between changing kinetic energy variables and the life cycles of two severe squall lines. The kinetic energy budgets indicate a high degree of kinetic energy generation, especially pronounced near the jet-stream level. Energy losses in the storm environment are due to the transfer of kinetic energy from grid to subgrid scales of motion; large-scale upward vertical motion carries aloft the kinetic energy generated by storm activity at lower levels. In general, the time of maximum storm intensity is also the time of maximum energy conversion and transport.

Insight into the Physical and Dynamical Processes that Control Rapid Increases in Total Flash Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2015-01-01

Rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") have been observed for many decades. Lightning jumps have been well correlated to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The main focus of lightning jump work has been on the development of lightning algorithms to be used in real-time assessment of storm intensity. However, in these studies it is typically assumed that the updraft "increases" without direct measurements of the vertical motion, or specification of which updraft characteristic actually increases (e.g., average speed, maximum speed, or convective updraft volume). Therefore, an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling rapid increases in total flash rate to increases in updraft speed and volume must be understood in order to ultimately relate lightning occurrence to severe storm metrics. Herein, we use polarimetric, multi-Doppler, and lightning mapping array measurements to provide physical context as to why rapid increases in total lightning are closely tied to severe and hazardous weather.

Comparison of storm response of streams in small, unmined and valley-filled watersheds, 1999-2001, Ballard fork, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Messinger, Terence

2003-01-01

During storms when rainfall intensity exceeded about 1 inch per hour, peak unit runoff from the Unnamed Tributary (surface-mined and filled) Watershed exceeded peak unit runoff from the Spring Branch (unmined) Watershed in the Ballard Fork Watershed in southern West Virginia. During most storms, those with intensity less than about 1 inch per hour, peak unit (area-normalized) flows were greater from the Spring Branch Watershed than the Unnamed Tributary Watershed. One storm that produced less than an inch of rain before flow from the previous storm had receded caused peak unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed to exceed peak unit flow from the Spring Branch Watershed. Peak unit flow was usually similar in Spring Branch and Ballard Fork. Peak unit flows are expected to decrease with increasing watershed size in homogeneous watersheds; drainage area and proportion of the three watersheds covered by valley fills are 0.19 square mile (mi?) and 44 percent for the Unnamed Tributary Watershed, 0.53 mi? and 0 percent for the Spring Branch Watershed, and 2.12 mi? and 12 percent for the Ballard Fork Watershed. Following all storms with sufficient rainfall intensity, about 0.25 inches per hour, the storm hydrograph from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed showed a double peak, as a sharp initial rise was followed by a decrease in flow and then a delayed secondary peak of water that had apparently flowed through the valley fill. Hortonian (excess overland) flow may be important in the Unnamed Tributary Watershed during intense storms, and may cause the initial peak on the rising arm of storm hydrographs; the water composing the initial peaks may be conveyed by drainage structures on the mine. Ballard Fork and Spring Branch had hydrographs with single peaks, typical of elsewhere in West Virginia. During all storms with 1-hour rainfall greater than 0.75 inches or 24-hour rainfall greater than 1.75 inches during which all stream gages recorded a complete record, the Unnamed Tributary yielded the most total unit flow. In three selected major storms, total unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary during recessions exceeded storm flow, and its total unit flow was greatest among the streams during all three recessions. Runoff patterns from the mined watershed are influenced by the compaction of soils on the mine, the apparent low maximum rate of infiltration into the valley fill compared to that in the unmined, forested watershed, storage of water in the valley fill, and the absence of interception from trees and leaf litter. No storms during this study produced 1-hour or 24-hour rainfall in excess of the 5-year return period, and streamflow during this study never exceeded a magnitude equivalent to the 1.5-year return period; relative peak unit flow among the three streams in this study could be different in larger storms. Rainfall-runoff relations on altered landscapes are site-specific, and aspects of mining and reclamation practice that affect storm response may vary among mines.

Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

2017-10-01

This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

Kinetic energy budgets in areas of convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1979-01-01

Synoptic scale budgets of kinetic energy are computed using 3 and 6 h data from three of NASA's Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE's). Numerous areas of intense convection occurred during the three experiments. Large kinetic energy variability, with periods as short as 6 h, is observed in budgets computed over each entire experiment area and over limited volumes that barely enclose the convection and move with it. Kinetic energy generation and transport processes in the smaller volumes are often a maximum when the enclosed storms are near peak intensity, but the nature of the various energy processes differs between storm cases and seems closely related to the synoptic conditions. A commonly observed energy budget for peak storm intensity indicates that generation of kinetic energy by cross-contour flow is the major energy source while dissipation to subgrid scales is the major sink. Synoptic scale vertical motion transports kinetic energy from lower to upper levels of the atmosphere while low-level horizontal flux convergence and upper-level horizontal divergence also occur. Spatial fields of the energy budget terms show that the storm environment is a major center of energy activity for the entire area.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeramony, J.

2016-12-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on surge and inundation due to tropical cyclones is important for coastal adaptation as well as mitigation efforts. Changes in global climate increase vulnerability of coastal environments to the threat posed by severe storms in a number of ways. Both the intensity of future storms as well as the return periods of more severe storms are expected to increase signficantly. Increasing mean sea levels lead to more areas being inundated due to storm surge and bring the threat of inundation further inland. Rainfall associated with severe storms are also expected to increase substantially, which will add to the intensity of inland flooding and coastal inundation. In this study, we will examine the effects of sea level rise and increasing rainfall intensity using Hurricane Ike as the baseline. The Delft3D modeling system will be set up in nested mode, with the outermost nest covering the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be run in a coupled mode, modeling both waves and the hydrodynamics. The baseline simulation will use the atmospheric forcing which consists of the NOAA H*Wind (Powell et all 1998) for the core hurricane characteristics blended with reanalyzed background winds to create a smooth wind field. The rainfall estimates are obtained from TRMM. From this baseline, a set of simulations will be performed to show the impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall activity on flooding and inundation along theTexas-Lousiana coast.

An index of anomalous convective instability to detect tornadic and hail storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Leung, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin; Luo, Weimeng; Du, Jun; Gao, Jidong

2017-12-01

In this article, the synoptic-scale spatial structures for raising tornadic and hail storms are compared by analyzing the total and anomalous variable fields from the troposphere to the stratosphere. 15 cases of tornado outbreaks and 20 cases of hail storms that occurred in the central United States during 1980-2011 were studied. The anomalous temperature-height field shows that a tornadic or hail storm usually occurs at the boundary of anomalous warm and cold air masses horizontally in the troposphere. In one side, an anomalous warm air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous cold air mass in the stratosphere are vertically separated by a positive center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. In another side, an opposite vertical pattern shows that an anomalous cold air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous warm air mass in the stratosphere are separated by a negative center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. Therefore, two pairs of adjacent anomalous warm/cold centers and one pair of anomalous high/low centers combining together form a major tornadic or hail storm paradigm, which can be physically considered as the storage of anomalous potential energy (APE) to generate severe weather. To quantitatively measure the APE, we define an index of anomalous convective instability (ACI) which is a difference of integrating temperature anomalies based on two vertically opposite anomalous air masses. The APE transformation to anomalous kinetic energy, which reduces horizontal and vertical gradients of temperature anomalies, produces anomalous rising and sinking flows in the lower-layer anomalous warm and cold air mass sides, respectively. The intensity of ACI index for tornadic storm cases is 1.5 times larger than that of hail storm cases in average. Thus, this expression of anomalous variables is better than total variables used in the traditional synoptic chart and the ACI index is better than other indices to detect potential tornadic and hail storms in order to understand the environmental conditions affecting severe weather in analytical and model output datasets.

Assessing the response of the Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA to human and climatic disturbances: Management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paerl, H.W.; Peierls, B.L.; Hall, N. S.; Joyner, A. R.; Christian, R.R.; Bales, Jerad D.; Riggs, S.R.

2010-01-01

The Pamlico Sound (PS) with its sub-estuaries is the largest lagoonal ecosystem in the United States. It exhibits periodically strong salinity stratification and an average freshwater residence time of 1 year for the sound proper. This relatively long residence time promotes effective use and cycling of nutrients, allowing the system to support high rates of primary and secondary production, and serve as a vitally important fisheries nursery. This hydrologic characteristic also makes the system highly sensitive to nutrient over-enrichment and eutrophication. The PS is experiencing ecological change in response to increasing human activity and climatic perturbations. Human impacts include a rise in nutrient, sediment, and other pollutant loads that accompany urbanization and agricultural and industrial growth in its watersheds and airsheds. Since the mid-1990s, the PS has witnessed a sudden rise in tropical storm and hurricane impacts, with eight hurricanes and four tropical storms having made landfall in the PS watershed during the 1996 to 2007 period. Each of these storms had unique hydrologic, nutrient, and other pollutant loading effects. In addition, since the early 2000s, the region has experienced record droughts, which are continuing. Variable freshwater discharges from storms and droughts have caused large oscillations in nutrient enrichment, reflected ultimately in differential phytoplankton production, biomass, and community compositional responses. Floodwaters from the two wettest hurricanes, Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999), and from Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006) exerted long-term (months) effects on hydrology, nutrient loads, and algal production. Windy but relatively dry hurricanes, like Irene (1999) and Isabel (2003), caused strong vertical mixing, storm surges, but relatively minor changes in river flow, flushing, and nutrient loads. These contrasting effects are accompanied by biogeochemical (hypoxia, nutrient cycling) and habitat alterations, and associated food web disturbances. Each storm type influenced algal growth and compositional dynamics; however, their respective ecological impacts differed substantially. Changes in hydrologic and wind forcing resulting from changes in frequency and intensity of storms and droughts strongly influence water and habitat quality. These changes must be integrated with nutrient loading/dilution effects when assessing and predicting ecological responses to nutrient and hydrologic variability on this and other large lagoonal ecosystems.

Distributed watershed modeling of design storms to identify nonpoint source loading areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endreny, T.A.; Wood, E.F.

1999-03-01

Watershed areas that generate nonpoint source (NPS) polluted runoff need to be identified prior to the design of basin-wide water quality projects. Current watershed-scale NPS models lack a variable source area (VSA) hydrology routine, and are therefore unable to identify spatially dynamic runoff zones. The TOPLATS model used a watertable-driven VSA hydrology routine to identify runoff zones in a 17.5 km{sup 2} agricultural watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff areas were identified in a static modeling framework as a function of prestorm watertable depth and also in a dynamic modeling framework by simulating basin response to 2, 10, and 25 yrmore » return period 6 h design storms. Variable source area expansion occurred throughout the duration of each 6 h storm and total runoff area increased with design storm intensity. Basin-average runoff rates of 1 mm h{sup {minus}1} provided little insight into runoff extremes while the spatially distributed analysis identified saturation excess zones with runoff rates equaling effective precipitation. The intersection of agricultural landcover areas with these saturation excess runoff zones targeted the priority potential NPS runoff zones that should be validated with field visits. These intersected areas, labeled as potential NPS runoff zones, were mapped within the watershed to demonstrate spatial analysis options available in TOPLATS for managing complex distributions of watershed runoff. TOPLATS concepts in spatial saturation excess runoff modelling should be incorporated into NPS management models.« less

Impact of storm runoff on Salmonella and Escherichia coli prevalence in irrigation ponds of fresh produce farms in southern Georgia.

PubMed

Harris, C S; Tertuliano, M; Rajeev, S; Vellidis, G; Levy, K

2018-03-01

To examine Salmonella and Escherichia coli in storm runoff and irrigation ponds used by fresh produce growers, and compare Salmonella serovars with those found in cases of human salmonellosis. We collected water before and after rain events at two irrigation ponds on farms in southern Georgia, USA, and collected storm runoff/storm flow within the contributing watershed of each pond. Salmonella and E. coli concentrations were higher in ponds after rain events by an average of 0·46 (P < 0·01) and 0·61 (P < 0·05) log 10 most probable number (MPN) per 100 ml respectively. Salmonella concentrations in storm runoff from fields and forests were not significantly higher than in ponds before rain events, but concentrations in storm flow from streams and ditches were higher by an average of 1·22 log 10 MPN per 100 ml (P < 0·001). Eighteen Salmonella serovars were identified from 155 serotyped isolates, and eight serovars were shared between storm runoff/storm flow and ponds. Seven of the serovars, including five of the shared serovars, were present in cases of human illness in the study region in the same year. However, several serovars most commonly associated with human illness in the study region (e.g. Javiana, Enteritidis, and Montevideo) were not found in any water samples. Salmonella and E. coli concentrations in irrigation ponds were higher, on average, after rain events, but concentrations of Salmonella were low, and the ponds met FDA water quality standards based on E. coli. Some similarities and notable differences were found between Salmonella serovars in water samples and in cases of human illness. This study directly examined storm runoff/storm flow into irrigation ponds and quantified increases in Salmonella and E. coli following rain events, with potential implications for irrigation pond management as well as human health. © 2018 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Oklahoma Downbursts and Their Asymmetry.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-11-01

velocity across the divergence center of at least 10 m s-1. Further, downbursts are called micro- bursts when they are 0.4-4 km in diameter, and macrobursts ...outflows in- vestigated in this study are larger-scale downbursts ( macrobursts ) that were imbedded in large intense convective storms. This does not...observed in this study were associated with intense convective storms and were generally of much larger horizontal scale ( macrobursts ). However, due to

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

Fuzzy neural network for flow estimation in sewer systems during wet weather.

PubMed

Shen, Jun; Shen, Wei; Chang, Jian; Gong, Ning

2006-02-01

Estimation of the water flow from rainfall intensity during storm events is important in hydrology, sewer system control, and environmental protection. The runoff-producing behavior of a sewer system changes from one storm event to another because rainfall loss depends not only on rainfall intensities, but also on the state of the soil and vegetation, the general condition of the climate, and so on. As such, it would be difficult to obtain a precise flowrate estimation without sufficient a priori knowledge of these factors. To establish a model for flow estimation, one can also use statistical methods, such as the neural network STORMNET, software developed at Lyonnaise des Eaux, France, analyzing the relation between rainfall intensity and flowrate data of the known storm events registered in the past for a given sewer system. In this study, the authors propose a fuzzy neural network to estimate the flowrate from rainfall intensity. The fuzzy neural network combines four STORMNETs and fuzzy deduction to better estimate the flowrates. This study's system for flow estimation can be calibrated automatically by using known storm events; no data regarding the physical characteristics of the drainage basins are required. Compared with the neural network STORMNET, this method reduces the mean square error of the flow estimates by approximately 20%. Experimental results are reported herein.

Detection of severe storm signatures in loblolly pine using seven-year periodic standardized averages and standard deviations

Treesearch

Stevenson Douglas; Thomas Hennessey; Thomas Lynch; Giulia Caterina; Rodolfo Mota; Robert Heineman; Randal Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

2016-01-01

A loblolly pine plantation near Eagletown, Oklahoma was used to test standardized tree ring widths in detecting snow and ice storms. Widths of two rings immediately following suspected storms were standardized against widths of seven rings following the storm (Stan1 and Stan2). Values of Stan1 less than -0.900 predict a severe (usually ice) storm when Stan 2 is less...

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2016-01-01

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index (); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation () index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode () index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index (); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation () index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

Coupling distributed stormwater collection and managed aquifer recharge: Field application and implications.

PubMed

Beganskas, S; Fisher, A T

2017-09-15

Groundwater is increasingly important for satisfying California's growing fresh water demand. Strategies like managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can improve groundwater supplies, mitigating the negative consequences of persistent groundwater overdraft. Distributed stormwater collection (DSC)-MAR projects collect and infiltrate excess hillslope runoff before it reaches a stream, focusing on 40-400 ha drainage areas (100-1000 ac). We present results from six years of DSC-MAR operation-including high resolution analyses of precipitation, runoff generation, infiltration, and sediment transport-and discuss their implications for regional resource management. This project generated significant water supply benefit over six years, including an extended regional drought, collecting and infiltrating 5.3 × 10 5  m 3 (426 ac-ft). Runoff generation was highly sensitive to sub-daily storm frequency, duration, and intensity, and a single intense storm often accounted for a large fraction of annual runoff. Observed infiltration rates varied widely in space and time. The basin-average infiltration rate during storms was 1-3 m/d, with point-specific rates up to 8 m/d. Despite efforts to limit sediment load, 8.2 × 10 5  kg of fine-grained sediment accumulated in the infiltration basin over three years, likely reducing soil infiltration capacity. Periodic removal of accumulated material, better source control, and/or improved sediment detention could mitigate this effect in the future. Regional soil analyses can maximize DSC-MAR benefits by identifying high-infiltration capacity features and characterizing upland sediment sources. A regional network of DSC-MAR projects could increase groundwater supplies while contributing to improved groundwater quality, flood mitigation, and stakeholder engagement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of Hydrological Regime on Runoff Quality and Pollutant Loadings in Tropical Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, M.; Yusop, Z.

2011-12-01

Experience in many developed countries suggests that non point source (NPS) pollution is still the main contributor to pollutant loadings into water bodies in urban areas. However, the mechanism of NPS pollutant transport and the influences of hydrologic regime on the pollutant loading are still unclear. Understanding these interactions will be useful for improving design criteria and strategies for controlling NPS pollution in urban areas. This issue is also extremely relevant in tropical environment because its rainfall and the runoff generation processes are so different from the temperate regions where most of the studies on NPS pollutant have been carried out. In this regard, an intensive study to investigate the extent of this pollution was carried out in Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. Three small catchments, each represents commercial, residential and industrial land use were selected. Stormwater samples and flow rate data were collected at these catchments over 52 storm events from year 2008 to 2009. Samples were analyzed for ten water quality constituents including total suspended solids, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, soluble phosphorus, total phosphorus and zinc. Quality of stormwater runoff is estimated using Event Mean Concentration (EMC) value. The storm characteristics analyzed included rainfall depth, rainfall duration, mean intensity, max 5 minutes intensity, antecedent dry day, runoff volume and peak flow. Correlation coefficients were determined between storm parameters and EMCs for the residential, commercial and industrial catchments. Except for the antecedent storm mean intensity and antecedent dry days, the other rainfall and runoff variables were negatively correlated with EMCs of most pollutants. This study reinforced the earlier findings on the importance of antecedent dry days for causing greater EMC values with exceptions for oil and grease, nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus and zinc. There is no positive correlation between rainfall intensity and EMC of constituents in all the studied catchments. In contrast, the pollutant loadings are influenced primarily by the rainfall and runoff characteristics. Rainfall depth, mean intensity, max 5 minute intensity, runoff volume and peak flow were positively correlated with the loadings of most of the constituents. Antecedent storm mean intensity and antecedent dry days seemed to be less important for estimating the pollutant loadings. Such study should be further conducted for acquiring a long term monitoring data related to storm runoff quality during rainfall, in order to have a better understanding on NPS pollution in urban areas.

Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere E-Region Electron Densities Using TIMED/SABER Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Fernandez, J. R.; Bilitza, D.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2009-01-01

Auroral infrared emission observed from the TIMED/SABER broadband 4.3 micron channel is used to develop an empirical geomagnetic storm correction to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region electron densities. The observation-based proxy used to develop the storm model is SABER-derived NO+(v) 4.3 micron volume emission rates (VER). A correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-time NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER to a quiet-time climatological averaged NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER, which is linearly fit to available geomagnetic activity indices. The initial version of the E-region storm model, called STORM-E, is most applicable within the auroral oval region. The STORM-E predictions of E-region electron densities are compared to incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements during the Halloween 2003 storm events. Future STORM-E updates will extend the model outside the auroral oval.

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the risks of mission impairment during and immediately after tropical and extratropical storms , assuming that sea level rise scenarios intensify these...timescales. .................................... 28 Figure 15: The sedimentary record can be used to obtain long-term storm histories...result in a variety of outcomes across the nation. Key coastal climate stressors include rising sea levels and changes in storm intensity and

Superstorms at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e)? Modeling paleo waves and the transport of giant boulders.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, Alessio; Harris, Daniel; Casella, Elisa; Lorscheid, Thomas; Stocchi, Paolo; Nandasena, Napayalage; Sandstrom, Michael; D'Andrea, William; Dyer, Blake; Raymo, Maureen

2017-04-01

We present the results of high-resolution field surveys and wave models along the cliffs of the northern part of the Island of Eleuthera, Bahamas. Previous studies have proposed that cliff top mega-boulders were emplaced at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128-116 ka) by giant swells caused by super-storms that find no counterpart in the Holocene (including historical times). Our results suggest that these boulders could have instead been transported from the cliff face to the top of the cliff by a storm analogous to the 1991 'Perfect Storm', if sea level during MIS 5e sea was more than 4 meters higher than today. We remark that the data-model approach used here is essential to interpreting the geologic evidence of extreme storms during past warm periods, which in turn, is an important tool for predicting the intensity of extreme storm events in future climates. Our results indicate that even without an increase in storm intensity, cliffs and hard coastal barriers might be subject to significant increases wave-generated stresses under conditions of sea levels modestly higher than present.

Correlations between Geomagnetic Disturbances and Field-Aligned Currents during the 22-29 July 2004 Storm Time Interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, R.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Morley, S.; Aruliah, A. L.

2017-12-01

Using the CHAMP fluxgate magnetometer to calculate field-aligned current (FAC) densities and magnetic latitudes, with SuperMAG ground magnetometers analogously providing ground geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) magnetic perturbations and latitudes, we probe FAC locations and strengths as predictors of GMD locations and strengths. We also study the relationships between solar wind drivers and global magnetospheric activity, and both FACs and GMDs using IMF Bz and the Sym-H index. We present an event study of the 22-29 July 2004 storm time interval, which had particularly large GMDs given its storm intensity. We find no correlation between FAC and GMD magnitudes, perhaps due to CHAMP orbit limitations or ground magnetometer coverage. There is, however, a correlation between IMF Bz and nightside GMD magnitudes, supportive of their generation via tail reconnection. IMF Bz is also correlated with dayside FAC and GMD magnetic latitudes, indicating solar wind as an initial driver. The ring current influence increases during the final storm, with improved correlations between the Sym-H index and both FAC magnetic latitudes and GMD magnitudes. Sym-H index correlations may only be valid for higher intensity storms; a statistical analysis of many storms is needed to verify this.

Applications of high resolution rainfall radar data to quantify water temperature dynamics in urban catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croghan, Danny; Van Loon, Anne; Bradley, Chris; Sadler, Jon; Hannnah, David

2017-04-01

Studies relating rainfall events to river water quality are frequently hindered by the lack of high resolution rainfall data. Local studies are particularly vulnerable due to the spatial variability of precipitation, whilst studies in urban environments require precipitation data at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The use of point-source data makes identifying causal effects of storms on water quality problematic and can lead to erroneous interpretations. High spatial and temporal resolution rainfall radar data offers great potential to address these issues. Here we use rainfall radar data with a 1km spatial resolution and 5 minute temporal resolution sourced from the UK Met Office Nimrod system to study the effects of storm events on water temperature (WTemp) in Birmingham, UK. 28 WTemp loggers were placed over 3 catchments on a rural-urban land use gradient to identify trends in WTemp during extreme events within urban environments. Using GIS, the catchment associated with each logger was estimated, and 5 min. rainfall totals and intensities were produced for each sub-catchment. Comparisons of rainfall radar data to meteorological stations in the same grid cell revealed the high accuracy of rainfall radar data in our catchments (<5% difference for studied months). The rainfall radar data revealed substantial differences in rainfall quantity between the three adjacent catchments. The most urban catchment generally received more rainfall, with this effect greatest in the highest intensity storms, suggesting the possibility of urban heat island effects on precipitation dynamics within the catchment. Rainfall radar data provided more accurate sub-catchment rainfall totals allowing better modelled estimates of storm flow, whilst spatial fluctuations in both discharge and WTemp can be simply related to precipitation intensity. Storm flow inputs for each sub-catchment were estimated and linked to changes in WTemp. WTemp showed substantial fluctuations (>1 °C) over short durations (<30 minutes) during storm events in urbanised sub-catchments, however WTemp recovery times were more prolonged. Use of the rainfall radar data allowed increased accuracy in estimates of storm flow timings and rainfall quantities at each sub-catchment, from which the impact of storm flow on WTemp could be quantified. We are currently using the radar data to derive thresholds for rainfall amount and intensity at which these storm deviations occur for each logger, from which the relative effects of land use and other catchment characteristics in each sub-catchment can be assessed. Our use of the rainfall radar data calls into question the validity of using station based data for small scale studies, particularly in urban areas, with high variation apparent in rainfall intensity both spatially and temporally. Variation was particularly high within the heavily urbanised catchment. For water quality studies, high resolution rainfall radar can be implemented to increase the reliability of interpretations of the response of water quality variables to storm water inputs in urban catchments.

Compilation of Abstracts of Theses Submitted by Candidates for Degrees, 1 October 1981 - 30 September 1982.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-01

the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts is used to define the storm and to calculate the budgets. Important differences are found...geopotential field at 850, 700 and 500mb on a 120 point grid with 5 degree latitude and longitude spacing that is centered on the storm . The 120 EOF... storm movement and intensity during the past 36 hours. The EOF-based regression equations are verified over an independent sample of 50 storms , and

Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.

2000-01-01

Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.

Thirty-one years of debris-flow observation and monitoring near La Honda, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Wilson, R.C.; Ellen, S.D.; Reid, M.E.; Jayko, A.S.

2007-01-01

From 1975 until 2006,18 intense storms triggered at least 248 debris flows within 10 km2 northwest of the town of La Honda within the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In addition to mapping debris flows and other types of landslides, studies included soil sampling and geologic mapping, piezometric and tensiometer monitoring, and rainfall measurement and recording. From 1985 until 1995, a system with radio telemetered rain gages and piezometers within the La Honda region was used for issuing six debris-flow warnings within the San Francisco Bay region through the NOAA ALERT system. Depending upon the relative intensity of rainfall during storms, debris flows were generated from deep slumps, shallow slumps, shallow slides in colluvium and shallow slides over bedrock. Analysis shows the storms with abundant antecedent rainfall followed by several days of steady heavy intense rainfall triggered the most abundant debris flows. ?? 2007 millpress.

An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2008-01-01

The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

Observed near-surface flows under all tropical cyclone intensity levels using drifters in the northwestern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yu-Chia; Chen, Guan-Yu; Tseng, Ruo-Shan; Centurioni, Luca R.; Chu, Peter C.

2013-05-01

Data from drifters of the surface velocity program and tropical cyclones (TCs) of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center during 1985-2009 were analyzed to demonstrate strong currents under various storm intensities such as category-4 to -5, category-2 to -3, and tropical storm to category-1 TCs in the northwestern Pacific. Current speeds over 2.0 m s-1 are observed under major TCs with the strongest mean currents to the right of the storm track. This study provides the characterization of the near-surface velocity response to all recorded TCs, and agrees roughly with Geisler's theory (1970). Our observations also verify earlier modeling results of Price (1983).

Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

Characteristics and Geoeffectiveness of Small-scale Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Myeong Joon; Park, Kyung Sun; Lee, Dae-Young; Choi, Cheong-Rim; Kim, Rok Soon; Cho, Kyungsuk; Choi, Kyu-Cheol; Kim, Jaehun

2017-12-01

Magnetic flux ropes, often observed during intervals of interplanetary coronal mass ejections, have long been recognized to be critical in space weather. In this work, we focus on magnetic flux rope structure but on a much smaller scale, and not necessarily related to interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Using near-Earth solar wind advanced composition explorer (ACE) observations from 1998 to 2016, we identified a total of 309 small-scale magnetic flux ropes (SMFRs). We compared the characteristics of identified SMFR events with those of normal magnetic cloud (MC) events available from the existing literature. First, most of the MCs and SMFRs have similar values of accompanying solar wind speed and proton densities. However, the average magnetic field intensity of SMFRs is weaker ( 7.4 nT) than that of MCs ( 10.6 nT). Also, the average duration time and expansion speed of SMFRs are 2.5 hr and 2.6 km/s, respectively, both of which are smaller by a factor of 10 than those of MCs. In addition, we examined the geoeffectiveness of SMFR events by checking their correlation with magnetic storms and substorms. Based on the criteria Sym-H < -50 nT (for identification of storm occurrence) and AL < -200 nT (for identification of substorm occurrence), we found that for 88 SMFR events (corresponding to 28.5 % of the total SMFR events), substorms occurred after the impact of SMFRs, implying a possible triggering of substorms by SMFRs. In contrast, we found only two SMFRs that triggered storms. We emphasize that, based on a much larger database than used in previous studies, all these previously known features are now firmly confirmed by the current work. Accordingly, the results emphasize the significance of SMFRs from the viewpoint of possible triggering of substorms.

Exploring Statistical Characterizations of Morphologic Change and Variability: Fire Island, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, E. E.; Hapke, C. J.

2012-12-01

A comprehensive understanding of coastal barrier behavior requires high-resolution observations that capture a wide range of morphological changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Fire Island National Seashore, located along the coast of Long Island, New York, is a well studied barrier island coast where understanding how morphological changes contribute to barrier island vulnerability have important implications for coastal land management. Previous work has shown that morphologic differences in eastern and western reaches are attributable to the underlying geology and variations sediment transport in the system. In this study, we further explore western and eastern differences and variability with lidar-derived topographic surfaces to provide a unique and comprehensive investigation of dune-beach change at Fire Island, New York. Continuous topographic surfaces generated from 12 lidar surveys collected between 1998 and 2011 are used to examine the three-dimensional variability over a range of time periods over the 50 km long island. Because surveys were collected over a range of seasons and in response to a number of storm events, we explore morphologic configurations reflecting the seasonality, post-storm configuration, and replenishment response to the system through the generation of a representative or average surface. These averaged surfaces provide the context for what would be an expected or typical coastal configuration under certain conditions, and through comparison with an individual event, can be used to derive an event-specific spatial-change signature. To investigate anthropogenic influences, differences in morphology between a survey collected after a substantial beach replenishment project and a typical fair-weather configuration averaged from six surveys are determined. Storm response variations are also explored by assessing differences between Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Nor'Ida (2009), and a typical post-storm configuration averaged from five post-storm surveys. In addition to averaged surfaces, surveys are combined to generate a new raster surface reflecting cell by cell standard deviations over a defined period. Standard deviation surfaces are generated to highlight 1) where areas of highest and lowest morphologic variation are located over the entire period, and 2) whether spatial similarities exist in variability between storm and non-storm morphologies. Results show there are distinct and variable responses in eastern and western reaches attributable to wave climate, profile gradient, and offshore bathymetry, as well as to a general along-coast increase in sediment availability.

Thyroid storm with multiple organ failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and stroke with a normal serum FT3 level.

PubMed

Harada, Yuko; Akiyama, Hisanao; Yoshimoto, Tatsuji; Urao, Yasuko; Ryuzaki, Munekazu; Handa, Michiko

2012-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare disorder with a sudden onset, rapid progression and high mortality. We experienced a case of thyroid storm which had a devastating course, including multiple organ failure (MOF), severe hypoglycemia, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), and stroke. It was difficult to make a diagnosis of thyroid storm in the present patient, because she did not have a history of thyroid disease and her serum FT3 level was normal. Clinicians should be aware that thyroid storm can occur even when there is an almost normal level of thyroid hormones, and that intensive anticoagulation is required for patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent stroke after thyroid storm.

Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neiman, P.J.; Ralph, F.M.; Wick, G.A.; Lundquist, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.

2008-01-01

The pre-cold-frontal low-level jet within oceanic extratropical cyclones represents the lower-tropospheric component of a deeper corridor of concentrated water vapor transport in the cyclone warm sector. These corridors are referred to as atmospheric rivers (ARs) because they are narrow relative to their length scale and are responsible for most of the poleward water vapor transport at midlatitudes. This paper investigates landfalling ARs along adjacent north- and south-coast regions of western North America. Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/ I) satellite observations of long, narrow plumes of enhanced integrated water vapor (IWV) were used to detect ARs just offshore over the eastern Pacific from 1997 to 2005. The north coast experienced 301 AR days, while the south coast had only 115. Most ARs occurred during the warm season in the north and cool season in the south, despite the fact that the cool season is climatologically wettest for both regions. Composite SSM/I IWV analyses showed landfalling wintertime ARs extending northeastward from the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas the summertime composites were zonally oriented and, thus, did not originate from this region of the tropics. Companion SSM/I composites of daily rainfall showed significant orographic enhancement during the landfall of winter (but not summer) ARs. The NCEP-NCAR global reanalysis dataset and regional precipitation networks were used to assess composite synoptic characteristics and overland impacts of landfalling ARs. The ARs possess strong vertically integrated horizontal water vapor fluxes that, on average, impinge on the West Coast in the pre-cold-frontal environment in winter and post-cold-frontal environment in summer. Even though the IWV in the ARs is greater in summer, the vapor flux is stronger in winter due to much stronger flows associated with more intense storms. The landfall of ARs in winter and north-coast summer coincides with anomalous warmth, a trough offshore, and ridging over the Intermountain West, whereas the south-coast summer ARs coincide with relatively cold conditions and a near-coast trough. ARs have a much more profound impact on near-coast precipitation in winter than summer, because the terrain-normal vapor flux is stronger and the air more nearly saturated in winter. During winter, ARs produce roughly twice as much precipitation as all storms. In addition, wintertime ARs with the largest SSM/I IWV are tied to more intense storms with stronger flows and vapor fluxes, and more precipitation. ARs generally increase snow water equivalent (SWE) in autumn/winter and decrease SWE in spring. On average, wintertime SWE exhibits normal gains during north-coast AR storms and above-normal gains during the south-coast AR storms. The north-coast sites are mostly lower in altitude, where warmer-than-normal conditions more frequently yield rain. During those events when heavy rain from a warm AR storm falls on a preexisting snowpack, flooding is more likely to occur. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Cloud evaluation using satellite simulators and cloud changes for global nonhydrostatic simulations with NICAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Noda, A. T.; Kodama, C.; Yamada, Y.; Hashino, T.

2012-12-01

Global cloud distributions and properties simulated by the global nonhydrostatic model, NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model), are evaluated and their future changes are discussed. First, we evaluated the simulated cloud properties produced by a case study of the 3.5km mesh experiment of NICAM using the satellite simulator package (the Joint-simulator) with cloud microphysics oriented approach (Hashino et al. 2012). Then, we analyzed future cloud changes using various sets of simulations under the present and the future global warming conditions. The results show that the zonal averaged ice water path (IWP) generally decreases or marginally unchanged in the tropics, while IWP in the extra-tropics increases. The upper cloud fraction increases both in the tropics and in the extra-tropics in general. We further analyzed contributions of cloud systems such as cloud clusters, tropical cyclones (TCs), and storm-tracks to these changes. Probability distribution of the larger cloud clusters decreases, while that of the smaller ones increases, consistent with the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the future climate. Average liquid water path (LWP) and IWP associated with each tropical cyclone are diagnosed, and it is found that both the associated LWP and IWP increase under the warmer condition. Even though, since the number of the intensive cloud systems decrease, the average IWP decreases. It should be remarked that the change in TC tracks largely contribute to the change in the horizontal distribution of clouds. The NICAM simulations also show that the storm-tracks shift poleward, and the storms become less frequent and stronger in the extra-tropics, similar to the results of other general circulation models. Both LWP and IWP associated with the storms also increase in the warmer climate in the NICAM simulations. This results in increase in the upper clouds under the warmer climate condition, as described by Miura et al. (2005). References: Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Hagihara, Y., Kubota, T., Matsui, T., Nasuno, T., and Okamoto, H. (2012), Evaluating Global Cloud Distribution and Microphysics from the NICAM against CloudSat and CALIPSO, J. Geophys. Res., submitted. Miura, H., Tomita,H., Nasuno,T., Iga, S., Satoh,M., and Matsuno, T. (2005), A climate sensitivity test using a global cloud resolving model under an aqua planet condition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19717, doi:10.1029/2005GL023672.

Analysis of dust storms observed in Mongolia during 1937-1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natsagdorj, L.; Jugder, D.; Chung, Y. S.

Climatology of dust storms in Mongolia is compiled based on observational data of 49 meteorological stations from 1960 to 1999 and compared them with data between 1937 and 1989. Three different maps of the distribution of dust storms, drifting dust and the number of dusty days are presented. The results of the analysis show that the number of days with dust storms is <5 days over the Altai, the Khangai and the Khentei mountainous regions and more than 20-37 days in the Gobi Desert and semi-desert area. The greatest occurrence of drifting dust arises around the Mongol Els area of west Mongolia. The number of dusty days, which is derived from the sum of the number of days with dust storms and drifting dust, is <10 days in the mountainous area and 61-127 days in the Gobi Desert and the Great Lakes hollow of west Mongolia. It is found that 61% of dust storms occur in the spring in Mongolia and a dust storm lasts on average from 3.1 to 6.0 h. About 65.5-91.0% of dust storms occur in daytime and 9.0-34.5% at night. Dust storms occur more frequently in the city region and are accompanied by surface wind speeds usually from 6 to 20 ms -1. Dust storms usually occur when soil and air are dry, and 70% of dust storms occur in dry soil conditions. When dust storms occur, relative humidity averages 20-40% in Mongolia. An important outcome of this study is the trend of dusty days between 1960 and 1999. It shows that the number of dusty days has tripled from the 1960s to 1990s and has decreased since 1990.

Thyroid storm precipitated by duodenal ulcer perforation.

PubMed

Natsuda, Shoko; Nakashima, Yomi; Horie, Ichiro; Ando, Takao; Kawakami, Atsushi

2015-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male) complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

2016 Guidelines for the management of thyroid storm from The Japan Thyroid Association and Japan Endocrine Society (First edition).

PubMed

Satoh, Tetsurou; Isozaki, Osamu; Suzuki, Atsushi; Wakino, Shu; Iburi, Tadao; Tsuboi, Kumiko; Kanamoto, Naotetsu; Otani, Hajime; Furukawa, Yasushi; Teramukai, Satoshi; Akamizu, Takashi

2016-12-30

Thyroid storm is an endocrine emergency which is characterized by multiple organ failure due to severe thyrotoxicosis, often associated with triggering illnesses. Early suspicion, prompt diagnosis and intensive treatment will improve survival in thyroid storm patients. Because of its rarity and high mortality, prospective intervention studies for the treatment of thyroid storm are difficult to carry out. We, the Japan Thyroid Association and Japan Endocrine Society taskforce committee, previously developed new diagnostic criteria and conducted nationwide surveys for thyroid storm in Japan. Detailed analyses of clinical data from 356 patients revealed that the mortality in Japan was still high (∼11%) and that multiple organ failure and acute heart failure were common causes of death. In addition, multimodal treatment with antithyroid drugs, inorganic iodide, corticosteroids and beta-adrenergic antagonists has been suggested to improve mortality of these patients. Based on the evidence obtained by nationwide surveys and additional literature searches, we herein established clinical guidelines for the management of thyroid storm. The present guideline includes 15 recommendations for the treatment of thyrotoxicosis and organ failure in the central nervous system, cardiovascular system, and hepato-gastrointestinal tract, admission criteria for the intensive care unit, and prognostic evaluation. We also proposed preventive approaches to thyroid storm, roles of definitive therapy, and future prospective trial plans for the treatment of thyroid storm. We hope that this guideline will be useful for many physicians all over the world as well as in Japan in the management of thyroid storm and the improvement of its outcome.

North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato MLR, Pinto JG, Trigo RM, Ludwig P, Ordóñez P, Yuen D, Trigo IF (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:2239-2251. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013 Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B (2010) Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856-868, doi:10.1002/qj.625 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

ULF waves and radiation belts: earthward penetration of Pc 4-5 waves and energetic electron flux enhancements during geospace magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, Marina; Daglis, Ioannis; Zesta, Eftyhia; Balasis, George; Tsinganos, Kanaris

2013-04-01

Energetic particle fluxes in the outer radiation belt can vary over orders of magnitude on time scales ranging from minutes, to days and years. Geospace magnetic storms when sufficiently strong to exceed key thresholds of the Dst index may either increase or decrease the fluxes of energetic electrons. We examine the responses of energetic electrons to nine moderate, intense and weak magnetic storms, which occurred at different phases of the solar cycle, and compare these with concurrent variations of ULF wave power. Pc 4-5 waves with frequencies in the range of a few mHz may be generated internally in the magnetosphere by low frequency instabilities of ring current ions and externally by shear instabilities at the magnetopause flanks, or compressive variations in the solar wind. Here, we present multipoint observations from ground-based magnetometer arrays collocated with electron drift orbits, which are complemented and measurements by conjugate multi-point satellites, such as CHAMP, Cluster, GOES and THEMIS. We discuss the excitation, growth and decay characteristics of Pc 4-5 waves during the different phases of the magnetic storms with particular emphasis on the distribution of Pc 4-5 wave power over a variety of L shells. We investigate whether Pc 4-5 wave power penetrates to lower L shell values during periods of relatively intense geomagnetic activity as compared to weak magnetic storms. Structural changes of the magnetosphere during intense geomagnetic storms can play an important role in the generation and penetration of Pc 4-5 waves deep into the inner magnetosphere, which in turn is of significance for the wave-particle interactions contributing to the acceleration, transport and loss of electrons in the outer radiation belt. We present preliminary statistics of Pc 4-5 waves observed during magnetic storms of varying intensity, which occurred over the course of the previous solar cycle. This work is supported by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.

Dynamics of runoff from high-intensity, short-duration storms.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-01-01

The effects of several parameters on the behavior of a runoff hydrograph were analyzed. The temporal distribution of rainfall was simulated using three synthetic storm patterns where the temporal location of the maximum burst was modified; the antece...

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

DOE PAGES

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; ...

2017-05-19

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. Formore » non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.« less

Geometric effects of ICMEs on geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, KyungSuk; Lee, Jae-Ok

2017-04-01

It has been known that the geomagnetic storm is occurred by the interaction between the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) and the Earth's magnetosphere; especially, the southward Bz component of ICME is thought as the main trigger. In this study, we investigate the relationship between Dst index and solar wind conditions; which are the southward Bz, electric field (VBz), and time integral of electric field as well as ICME parameters derived from toroidal fitting model in order to find what is main factor to the geomagnetic storm. We also inspect locations of Earth in ICMEs to understand the geometric effects of the Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) on the geomagnetic storms. Among 59 CDAW ICME lists, we select 30 IFR events that are available by the toroidal fitting model and classify them into two sub-groups: geomagnetic storms associated with the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) and the compression regions ahead of the MCs (sheath). The main results are as follows: (1) The time integral of electric field has a higher correlation coefficient (cc) with Dst index than the other parameters: cc=0.85 for 25 MC events and cc=0.99 for 5 sheath events. (2) The sheath associated intense storms (Dst ≤-100nT) having usually occur at flank regions of ICMEs while the MC associated intense storms occur regardless of the locations of the Earth in ICMEs. The strength of a geomagnetic storm strongly depends on electric field of IFR and durations of the IFR passages through the Earth.

The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

Magnetic and Ionospheric Observations in the Far Eastern Region of Russia During the Magnetic Storm of 5 April 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baishev, D. G.; Moiseyev, A. V.; Boroyev, R. N.; Kobyakova, S. E.; Stepanov, A. E.; Mandrikova, O. V.; Solovev, I. S.; Khomutov, S. Yu.; Polozov, Yu. A.; Yoshikawa, A.; Yumoto, K.

2015-12-01

Magnetic and ionospheric disturbances in the far eastern region of Russia during the magnetic storm of 5 April 2010 are studied using data of geophysical stations operated by IKFIA SB RAS and IKIR FEB RAS. By performing wavelet analysis of experimental data, the wavelet powers of geomagnetic perturbations at different stations are estimated, in an attempt to investigate the dynamical development of a geomagnetic storm. It is shown that, though weak geomagnetic disturbances were present prior to the main phase of magnetic storm, the variations of the magnetic field during a storm development were found to be rather strong. The highest intensity of geomagnetic disturbances during the interplanetary shock at the Earth's magnetosphere was observed at KTN (L~9) while at ZYK (L~4) strongest geomagnetic perturbations occurred during the magnetospheric substorm with the onset at 09:03 UT. Large geomagnetic fluctuations were recorded at TIX and CHD (L~5-6), when the High-Intensity Long-Duration Continuous AE Activity (HILDCAA) was observed on 6 April 2010. Ionospheric conditions at YAK (L~3.4) and PET (L~2.2) were characterized by a pre-storm enhancement in the electron density in the F2 layer on 4 April 2010 and prolonged negative phase of the ionospheric storm during the main and recovery phases of magnetic storm on 6-8 April 2010. These experimental results underscore the importance of multi-instrumental observations and provide clues to the complex interactive processes.

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. Formore » non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.« less

Analyzing post-wildfire erosional processes and topographic change using hydrologic monitoring and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry at the storm event scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeper, R. J.; Barth, N. C.; Gray, A. B.

2017-12-01

Hydro-geomorphic response in recently burned watersheds is highly dependent on the timing and magnitude of subsequent rainstorms. Recent advancements in surveying and monitoring techniques using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can support the rapid estimation of near cm-scale topographic response of headwater catchments (ha to km2). However, surface change due to shallow erosional processes such as sheetwash and rilling remain challenging to measure at this spatial extent and the storm event scale. To address this issue, we combined repeat UAV-SfM surveys with hydrologic monitoring techniques and field investigations to characterize post-wildfire erosional processes and topographic change on a storm-by-storm basis. The Las Lomas watershed ( 15 ha) burned in the 2016 San Gabriel Complex Fire along the front range of the San Gabriel Mountains, southern California. Surveys were conducted with a consumer grade UAV; twenty-six SfM control markers; two rain gages, and two pressure transducers were installed in the watershed. The initial SfM-derived point cloud generated from 422 photos contains 258 million points; the DEM has a resolution of 2.42 cm/pixel and a point density of 17.1 pts/cm2. Rills began forming on hillslopes and minor erosion occurred within the channel network during the first low intensity storms of the rainy season. Later more intense storms resulted in substantial geomorphic change. Hydrologic data indicate that during one of the intense storms total cumulative rainfall was 58.20 mm and peak 5-min intensity was 38.4 mm/hr. Poststorm field surveys revealed evidence of debris flows, flash flooding, erosion, and fluvial aggradation in the channel network, and rill growth and gully formation on hillslopes. Analyses of the SfM models indicate erosion dominated topographic change in steep channels and on hillslopes; aggradation dominated change in low gradient channels. A contrast of 5 cm exists between field measurements and change detected by differencing the SfM models. The quantitative and qualitative data sets obtained indicate that low-cost hydrologic monitoring techniques can be combined with SfM-derived high-resolution models to rapidly characterize post-wildfire hydrologic response and erosional processes on a storm event basis.

Ice Storms in a Changing Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

CHANGING CLIMATE by Jennifer M. McNitt June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Wendell Nuss Co-Advisor: David W. Titley THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT...SUBTITLE ICE STORMS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Jennifer M. McNitt 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS...increase in global temperatures, due to climate change , could affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic location of ice storms. Three known ice

OSSE Assessment of Ocean Observing System Enhancements to Improve Coupled Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Mehari, M. F.; Dong, J.; Kourafalou, V.; Atlas, R. M.; Kang, H.; Le Henaff, M.

2016-02-01

A new ocean OSSE system validated in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean is used to evaluate ocean observing strategies during the 2014 hurricane season with the goal of improving coupled tropical cyclone forecasts. Enhancements to the existing operational ocean observing system are evaluated prior to two storms, Edouard and Gonzalo, where ocean measurements were obtained during field experiments supported by the 2013 Disaster Relief Appropriation Act. For Gonzalo, a reference OSSE is performed to evaluate the impact of two ocean gliders deployed north and south of Puerto Rico and two Alamo profiling floats deployed in the same general region during most of the hurricane season. For Edouard, a reference OSSE is performed to evaluate impacts of the pre-storm ocean profile survey conducted by NOAA WP-3D aircraft. For both storms, additional OSSEs are then conducted to evaluate more extensive seasonal and pre-storm ocean observing strategies. These include (1) deploying a larger number of synthetic ocean gliders during the hurricane season, (2) deploying pre-storm synthetic thermistor chains or synthetic profiling floats along one or more "picket fence" lines that cross projected storm tracks, and (3) designing pre-storm airborne profiling surveys to have larger impacts than the actual pre-storm survey conducted for Edouard. Impacts are evaluated based on error reduction in ocean parameters important to SST cooling and hurricane intensity such as ocean heat content and the structure of the ocean eddy field. In all cases, ocean profiles that sample both temperature and salinity down to 1000m provide greater overall error reduction than shallower temperature profiles obtained from AXBTs and thermistor chains. Large spatial coverage with multiple instruments spanning a few degrees of longitude and latitude is necessary to sufficiently reduce ocean initialization errors over a region broad enough to significantly impact predicted surface enthalpy flux into the storm. Error reduction in hurricane intensity forecasts resulting from the additional ocean observations is then assessed by initializing the ocean component of the HYCOM-HWRF coupled prediction system with analyses produced by the OSSE system.

Climate Change Increases Reproductive Failure in Magellanic Penguins

PubMed Central

Boersma, P. Dee; Rebstock, Ginger A.

2014-01-01

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms, and climate models predict this trend will continue, potentially affecting wildlife populations. Since 1960 the number of days with >20 mm of rain increased near Punta Tombo, Argentina. Between 1983 and 2010 we followed 3496 known-age Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) chicks at Punta Tombo to determine how weather impacted their survival. In two years, rain was the most common cause of death killing 50% and 43% of chicks. In 26 years starvation killed the most chicks. Starvation and predation were present in all years. Chicks died in storms in 13 of 28 years and in 16 of 233 storms. Storm mortality was additive; there was no relationship between the number of chicks killed in storms and the numbers that starved (P = 0.75) or that were eaten (P = 0.39). However, when more chicks died in storms, fewer chicks fledged (P = 0.05, R 2 = 0.14). More chicks died when rainfall was higher and air temperature lower. Most chicks died from storms when they were 9–23 days old; the oldest chick killed in a storm was 41 days old. Storms with heavier rainfall killed older chicks as well as more chicks. Chicks up to 70 days old were killed by heat. Burrow nests mitigated storm mortality (N = 1063). The age span of chicks in the colony at any given time increased because the synchrony of egg laying decreased since 1983, lengthening the time when chicks are vulnerable to storms. Climate change that increases the frequency and intensity of storms results in more reproductive failure of Magellanic penguins, a pattern likely to apply to many species breeding in the region. Climate variability has already lowered reproductive success of Magellanic penguins and is likely undermining the resilience of many other species. PMID:24489663

Effects of urban development on direct runoff to East Meadow Brook, Nassau County, Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seaburn, G.E.

1969-01-01

The study described in this report is concerned with the effects of intensive urban development on direct runoff to East Meadow Brook, a southward-flowing stream in central Nassau County, N.Y., during the period 1937-66. The specific objectives of the study were (a) to relate indices of urban development to increases in the volume of annual direct runoff to the stream; (b) to compare hydrograph features at different periods during the transition of the drainage basin from rural to urban conditions; and (c) to compare the rainfall-runoff relations for periods before and after urban development.Periods of housing and street construction in the drainage basin correspond to three distinct periods of increased direct runoff after the base period 1937-43-namely, 1944-51, 1952-59, and 1960-62. During each period, the average annual direct runoff increased because of an increase in the area served by storm sewers that discharged into East Meadow Brook. The amount of land served by sewers increased from about 570 acres in 1943 to about 3,600 acres in 1962, or about 530 percent. During this same period, the average annual direct runoff increased from about 920 acre-feet per year to about 3,400 acre-feet per year, or about 270 percent.The shape of direct-runoff unit hydrographs of East Meadow Brook also changed during the period of study. The average peak discharge of a 1-hour-duration unit hydrograph increased from 313 cubic feet per second, for storms in 1937-43, to 776 cubic feet per second, for storms in 1960-62, or about 2.5 times. In addition, the widths of the unit hydrographs for 1960-62 at values of 50 and 75 percent of the peak discharge were 38 and 28 percent, respectively, the comparable widths of the unit hydrographs for 1937-43.An analysis of the rainfall-runoff relations for both preurban and urban conditions indicates that the direct runoff for both periods increased with the magnitude of the storm. However, the direct runoff during a period of urbanized conditions (1964- 66) was from 1.1 to 4.6 times greater than the corresponding runoff during the preurban period 1937-43, depending on the size of the individual storm.The volume of direct runoff from the parts of the subarea equipped with storm sewers that discharged into East Meadow Brook is estimated to have been roughly 3,000 acre-feet per year in 1960-62, or about 20 percent of the precipitation on those parts of the area.The increase in direct runoff probably represents a loss of ground-water recharge. However, because data changes in evapo-transpiration are insufficient and because the effects of recharge basins are unknown, adequate quantitative estimates of groundwater recharge can not be made.On the basis of the present zoning regulations and on assumption that an additional 320 acres in the Hempstead subarea will be serviced by storm sewers that discharge into East Meadow Brook, direct runoff from the subarea is expected to increase in the future to an estimated 4,000-4,500 acre-feet per year.

In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: Comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.; Cannon, S.H.

2011-01-01

Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of kalbaishakhi storms on adult mosquito populations in Kolkata (Calcutta), India.

PubMed

Pramanik, M K; Raut, S K

2003-01-01

The effect of kalbaishakhi storms on the adult mosquito populations of Kolkata (Calcutta), India was studied in 2000-2001. It is revealed that the density of mosquitoes was reduced, on average by 59.6 and 10%, during the first and second 24 h after each kalbaishakhi storms, respectively. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

Modelling derecho dynamics and the direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke upon it with NWP model HARMONIE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Männik, Aarne

2014-05-01

Convection permitting numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE was used to simulate the dynamics of the derecho that swept over Eastern Europe on August 8, 2010. The storm moved over Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland and the strongest wind gusts (up to 36.5 m/s) were measured in Estonia. The storm path is recorded on the radar images where characteristic bow echo was observed. The model setup was similar to near-future operational, nearly kilometre-scale environments in European national weather services. Hindcast experiments show the ability of the HARMONIE model to predict the severe convective storm and forecast concurrent strong wind gusts. Wind gusts with very similar intensity to observed ones were simulated by the HARMONIE model and 2.5-km horizontal resolution appears sufficient for reliable forecast of the derecho event. The timing of the modelled storm was in good agreement with the observations. The simulated average storm propagation speed was 25 m/s, similar to the radar observations. Hindcast experiments suggest that more precise warning for the storm could have been issued if the HARMONIE model would have been utilised. The derecho event was accompanied by the remarkable smoke aerosol concentrations (maximum total aerosol optical depth more than 4 at 550 nm) originating from the wildfires from Russia. Smoke plume travelled clockwise around Moscow from August 5 to 9. On August 8, 2010, smoke plume was situated on the Eastern border of Estonia. The derecho occurred on the western side of the smoke plume path. HARMONIE experiments were performed to study the direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke on a severe convective storm. The impact of smoke aerosol on the derecho dynamics was investigated. Reduction in the shortwave radiation flux at the surface resulting from aerosol influence simulated by the HARMONIE model is up to 200 W/m2 in the area with the highest aerosol concentrations. This causes near surface cooling of up to 3 ºC. The direct radiative effect of aerosol increases the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer and this had influence on the simulated derecho dynamics.

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

EPA Science Inventory

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

The Value of Wetlands in Protecting Southeast Louisiana from Hurricane Storm Surges

PubMed Central

Barbier, Edward B.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J.

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively. PMID:23536815

The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

PubMed

Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2013-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid with a geospatial inventory of critical infrastructure assets to evaluate the potential for storm damage associated with each level of wetland reduction. This poster will present quantitative analyses of the benefits and losses regarding storm surge inundation and damage from land cover changes in the study region.

Characteristics of different convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of intensity and track of severe extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, P. K.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ferreira, Juan A.; Dasamsetti, S.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

2018-01-01

The role of the convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the ARW-WRF (WRF) mesoscale model is examined for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of very severe winter storms such as Xynthia (2010) and Gong (2013) are considered in this study. Most popular CPSs within WRF model, along with Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and WSM6 microphysical parameterization schemes are incorporated for the model experiments. For each storm, four numerical experiments were carried out using New Kain Fritsch (NKF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (Gr3D) and no convection scheme (NCS) respectively. The prime objectives of these experiments were to recognize the best CPS that can forecast the intensity, track, and landfall over the Iberian Peninsula in advance of two days. The WRF model results such as central sea level pressure (CSLP), wind field, moisture flux convergence, geopotential height, jet stream, track and precipitation have shown sensitivity CPSs. The 48-hour lead simulations with BMJ schemes produce the best simulations both regarding ETCs intensity and track than Gr3D and NKF schemes. The average MAE and RMSE of intensities are least that (6.5 hPa in CSLP and 3.4 ms- 1 in the 10-m wind) found in BMJ scheme. The MAE and RMSE for and intensity and track error have revealed that NCS produces large errors than other CPSs experiments. However, for track simulation of these ETCs, at 72-, 48- and 24-hour means track errors were 440, 390 and 158 km respectively. In brevity, BMJ and Gr3D schemes can be used for short and medium range predictions of the ETCs over North Atlantic. For the evaluation of precipitation distributions using Gr3D scheme are good agreement with TRMM satellite than other CPSs.

Positive cloud-to-ground lightning flashes in severe storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rust, W. D.; Macgorman, D. R.; Arnold, R. T.

1981-01-01

The occurrence of cloud-to-ground flashes that effectively lower positive charge to earth (+CG flash) over flat terrain has been documented in the mature stage of severe thunderstorms. Of the 31 documented +CG flashes, most had only one return stroke. Zero-to-peak rise times for the strokes averaged 7 microsec. The +CG flashes averaged 520 ms in duration, with 25 percent lasting more than 800 ms. Many of these had field changes suggestive of continuing current. Positive flashes have been observed to emanate from several regions of severe storms: high on the back of the main storm tower, through the wall cloud, and from the downshear anvil. Visually most of these positive flashes have emanated from high in the storm, and acoustic mapping of two shows thunder sources to a height of about 15 km.

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Hazards of geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herzog, D.C.

1992-01-01

Geomagnetic storms are large and sometimes rapid fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field that are related to disturbances on the Sun's surface. Although it is not widely recognized, these transient magnetic disturbances can be a significant hazard to people and property. Many of us know that the intensity of the auroral lights increases during magnetic storms, but few people realize that these storms can also cause massive power outages, interrupt radio communications and satellite operations, increase corrosion in oil and gas pipelines, and lead to spuriously high rejection rates in the manufacture of sensitive electronic equipment. 

Interactions Between Convective Storms and Their Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, R. A.; Hoxit, L. R.; Chappell, C. F.

1979-01-01

The ways in which intense convective storms interact with their environment are considered for a number of specific severe storm situations. A physical model of subcloud wind fields and vertical wind profiles was developed to explain the often observed intensification of convective storms that move along or across thermal boundaries. A number of special, unusually dense, data sets were used to substantiate features of the model. GOES imagery was used in conjunction with objectively analyzed surface wind data to develop a nowcast technique that might be used to identify specific storm cells likely to become tornadic. It was shown that circulations associated with organized meso-alpha and meso-beta scale storm complexes may, on occasion, strongly modify tropospheric thermodynamic patterns and flow fields.

Evaluation of the capability of low-impact development practices for the removal of heavy metal from urban stormwater runoff.

PubMed

Maniquiz-Redillas, Marla C; Kim, Lee-Hyung

2016-09-01

Low-impact development (LID) and green infrastructure (GI) have recently become well-known methods to capture, collect, retain, and remove pollutants in stormwater runoff. The research was conducted to assess the efficiency of LID/GI systems applied in removing the particulate and dissolved heavy metals (Zn, Pb, Cu, Ni, Cr, Cd, and Fe) from urban stormwater runoff. A total of 82 storm events were monitored over a four-year period (2010-2014) on six LID/GI systems including infiltration trenches, tree box filter, rain garden, and hybrid constructed wetlands employed for the management of road, parking lot, and roof runoff. It was observed that the heavy metal concentration increased proportionally with the total suspended solids concentration. Among the heavy metal constituents, Fe appeared to be highly particulate-bound and was the easiest to remove followed by Zn and Pb; while metals such as Cr, Ni, Cu, and Cd were mostly dissolved and more difficult to remove. The mass fraction ratios of metal constituents at the effluent were increased relative to the influent. All the systems performed well in the removal of particulate-bound metals and were more efficient for larger storms greater than 15 mm wherein more particulate-bound metals were generated compared to smaller storms less than 5 mm that produced more dissolved metals. The efficiency of the systems in removing the particulate-bound metals was restricted during high average/peak flows; that is, high-intensity storms events and when heavy metals have low concentration levels.

Air-Sea Momentum and Enthalpy Exchange in Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curcic, M.; Chen, S. S.

2016-02-01

The atmosphere and ocean are coupled through momentum, enthalpy, and mass fluxes. Accurate representation of these fluxes in a wide range of weather and climate conditions is one of major challenges in prediction models. Their current parameterizations are based on sparse observations in low-to-moderate winds and are not suited for high wind conditions such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and winter storms. In this study, we use the Unified Wave INterface - Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a high resolution, fully-coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model, to better understand the role of ocean surface waves in mediating air-sea momentum and enthalpy exchange in TCs. In particular, we focus on the explicit treatment of wave growth and dissipation for calculating atmospheric and oceanic stress, and its role in upper ocean mixing and surface cooling in the wake of the storm. Wind-wave misalignment and local wave disequilibrium result in difference between atmospheric and oceanic stress being largest on the left side of the storm. We find that explicit wave calculation in the coupled model reduces momentum transfer into the ocean by more than 10% on average, resulting in reduced cooling in TC's wake and subsequent weakening of the storm. We also investigate the impacts of sea surface temperature and upper ocean parameterization on air-sea enthalpy fluxes in the fully coupled model. High-resolution UWIN-CM simulations of TCs with various intensities and structure are conducted in this study to better understand the complex TC-ocean interaction and improve the representation of air-sea coupling processes in coupled prediction models.

Disruption of Saturn's quasi-periodic equatorial oscillation by the great northern storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, Leigh N.; Guerlet, Sandrine; Orton, Glenn S.; Cosentino, Richard G.; Fouchet, Thierry; Irwin, Patrick G. J.; Li, Liming; Flasar, F. Michael; Gorius, Nicolas; Morales-Juberías, Raúl

2017-11-01

The equatorial middle atmospheres of the Earth1, Jupiter2 and Saturn3,4 all exhibit a remarkably similar phenomenon—a vertical, cyclic pattern of alternating temperatures and zonal (east-west) wind regimes that propagate slowly downwards with a well-defined multi-year period. Earth's quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (observed in the lower stratospheric winds with an average period of 28 months) is one of the most regular, repeatable cycles exhibited by our climate system1,5,6, and yet recent work has shown that this regularity can be disrupted by events occurring far away from the equatorial region, an example of a phenomenon known as atmospheric teleconnection7,8. Here, we reveal that Saturn's equatorial quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) (with an 15-year period3,9) can also be dramatically perturbed. An intense springtime storm erupted at Saturn's northern mid-latitudes in December 201010-12, spawning a gigantic hot vortex in the stratosphere at 40° N that persisted for three years13. Far from the storm, the Cassini temperature measurements showed a dramatic 10 K cooling in the 0.5-5 mbar range across the entire equatorial region, disrupting the regular QPO pattern and significantly altering the middle-atmospheric wind structure, suggesting an injection of westward momentum into the equatorial wind system from waves generated by the northern storm. Hence, as on Earth, meteorological activity at mid-latitudes can have a profound effect on the regular atmospheric cycles in Saturn's tropics, demonstrating that waves can provide horizontal teleconnections between the phenomena shaping the middle atmospheres of giant planets.

The relationship of storm severity to directionally resolved radio emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, R. L.

1986-04-01

The objective was to provide continuous observation of atmospheric electrical activity occurring in association with tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The observations were to include the location of all detected intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring in the storm. To provide synoptic scale coverage, a phase linear interferometer high frequency direction finder (HFDF) system was constructed and developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This was used in concert with the existing HFDF interferometer at the southwest research institute to provide lightning location data through triangulation. Atmospheric electrical events were synchronized through the use of satellite receivers at each site. The intent of the data analysis was to correlate the location of electrical centers of activity with radar and satellite imagry to identify areas of intense convection within the tropical storm system. Analysis of the hurricane Alicia data indicate a center of atmospheric electrical activity associated with the vortex of the storm. The center appears to rotate from the Northern side of the vortex to the Southern side during the period of observation. An analysis of the atmospheric electrical burst rates associated with hurrican Alicia indicates that the electrical activity appears to maximize at the time of greatest storm intensity, i.e., maximum winds and lowest central pressure.

The relationship of storm severity to directionally resolved radio emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. L.

1986-01-01

The objective was to provide continuous observation of atmospheric electrical activity occurring in association with tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The observations were to include the location of all detected intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring in the storm. To provide synoptic scale coverage, a phase linear interferometer high frequency direction finder (HFDF) system was constructed and developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This was used in concert with the existing HFDF interferometer at the southwest research institute to provide lightning location data through triangulation. Atmospheric electrical events were synchronized through the use of satellite receivers at each site. The intent of the data analysis was to correlate the location of electrical centers of activity with radar and satellite imagry to identify areas of intense convection within the tropical storm system. Analysis of the hurricane Alicia data indicate a center of atmospheric electrical activity associated with the vortex of the storm. The center appears to rotate from the Northern side of the vortex to the Southern side during the period of observation. An analysis of the atmospheric electrical burst rates associated with hurrican Alicia indicates that the electrical activity appears to maximize at the time of greatest storm intensity, i.e., maximum winds and lowest central pressure.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Rain observations in tropical storm Cora

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilheit, T. T.; Chang, A. T. C.; King, J. L.; Rodgers, E. B.; Nieman, R. A.; Krupp, B. M.; Siddalingaiah, H.; Diesen, B. C.; Stratigos, J.

1979-01-01

Passive microwave observations were made in tropical storm Cora at 19.35 and 94GHz. These observations suggest that 94GHz is appropriate for mapping the extent of rain over either land or ocean backgrounds and that some rainfall intensity measurement is also possible.

Storm-surge flooding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terenzi, John; Ely, Craig R.; Jorgenson, M. Torre

2014-01-01

Coastal regions of Alaska are regularly affected by intense storms of ocean origin, the frequency and intensity of which are expected to increase as a result of global climate change. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), situated in western Alaska on the eastern edge of the Bering Sea, is one of the largest deltaic systems in North America. Its low relief makes it especially susceptible to storm-driven flood tides and increases in sea level. Little information exists on the extent of flooding caused by storm surges in western Alaska and its effects on salinization, shoreline erosion, permafrost thaw, vegetation, wildlife, and the subsistence-based economy. In this paper, we summarize storm flooding events in the Bering Sea region of western Alaska during 1913 – 2011 and map both the extent of inland flooding caused by autumn storms on the central YKD, using Radarsat-1 and MODIS satellite imagery, and the drift lines, using high-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery and field surveys. The largest storm surges occurred in autumn and were associated with high tides and strong (> 65 km hr-1) southwest winds. Maximum inland extent of flooding from storm surges was 30.3 km in 2005, 27.4 km in 2006, and 32.3 km in 2011, with total flood area covering 47.1%, 32.5%, and 39.4% of the 6730 km2 study area, respectively. Peak stages for the 2005 and 2011 storms were 3.1 m and 3.3 m above mean sea level, respectively—almost as high as the 3.5 m amsl elevation estimated for the largest storm observed (in November 1974). Several historically abandoned village sites lie within the area of inundation of the largest flood events. With projected sea level rise, large storms are expected to become more frequent and cover larger areas, with deleterious effects on freshwater ponds, non-saline habitats, permafrost, and landscapes used by nesting birds and local people.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

Dynamics of Saturn’s 2010 Great White Spot from high-resolution Cassini ISS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hueso, Ricardo; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; del Río-Gaztelurrutia, T.

2012-10-01

On December 5th 2010 a storm erupted in Saturn’s North Temperate latitudes which were experiencing early spring season. The storm quickly developed to a planet-wide disturbance of the Great White Spot type. The ISS instrument onboard Cassini acquired its first images of the storm on 23th December 2010 and performed repeated observations with a variety of spatial resolutions over the nearly 10 months period the storm continued active. Here we present an analysis of two of the image sequences with better spatial resolution of the mature storm when it was fully developed and very active. We used an image correlation algorithm to measure the cloud motions obtained from images separated 20 minutes and obtained 16,000 wind tracers in a domain of 60 degrees longitude per 20 degrees in latitude. Intense zonal and meridional motions accompanied the storm and reached values of 120 m/s in particular regions of the active storm. The storm released a chain of anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices at planetocentric latitudes of 36° and 32° respectively. The short time difference between the images results in estimated wind uncertainties of 15 m/s that did not allow to perform a complete analysis of the turbulence and kinetic spectrum of the motions. We identify locations of the updrafts and link those with the morphology in different observing filters. The global behaviour of the storm was examined in images separated by 10 hours confirming the intensity of the winds and the global behaviour of the vortices. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Spanish MICIIN project AYA2009-10701 with FEDER funds, by Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07 and by Universidad País Vasco UPV/EHU through program UFI11/55.

Detection Of Tornado Damage Tracks With EOS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Nair, Udaysankar; Haines, Stephanie L.

2005-01-01

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (path length and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explored the possibility of using near real-time medium and high-resolution satellite imagery from the NASA EOS satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. MODIS and ASTER data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms; the La Plata, Maryland storm of 28 April 2002 and the Carter-Butler Counties and Madison County Missouri storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity (from F0-F4) and occurred over regions with different land use. It was found that, depending on the nature of land use, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F2 or greater) may be evident in both ASTER and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas of dense vegetation the scar patterns show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not at all obvious in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2004 Madison County, Missouri tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land use as on the severity of the tornadic storm. The imaging sensors on the NPOESS operational satellites to be launched in 2006 will continue the unique observing capabilities of the EOS instruments.

Long range transport of fine grained sediments on Mars: Atmospheric dust loading, as inferred from Viking Lander imaging data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, J. B.; Colburn, D. S.

1984-01-01

During the first Viking year, two global dust storms occurred and they contributed about 90% of the dust suspended in the Martian atmosphere on a global average, over the course of this year. The remainder was due to the cumulative effect of local dust storms. When globally distributed, the amount of suspended dust introduced into the atmosphere this Martian year was about 5x10(-3) g/sq cm. This mass loading was derived from the incremental optical depths measured over this year and estimates of the mean size of the dust particles (2.5 microns). During the second Martian year, global dust storms were far more muted than during the first year. No near perihelion dust storm occurred, and a somewhat weaker dust storm may have occurred near the start of the spring season in the Southern Hemisphere, at about the same time that the first global dust storm of the first year occurred. Thus, the dust loading derived for the first Martian year may be somewhat higher than the average over many Martian years, a conclusion that appears to be supported by preliminary studies of Martian years beyond the second Viking year on Mars.

Hurricane Rita and the destruction of Holly Beach, Louisiana: Why the chenier plain is vulnerable to storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger, A.H.; Wright, C.W.; Doran, K.; Guy, K.; Morgan, K.

2009-01-01

Hurricane Rita devastated gulf-front communities along the western Louisiana coast in 2005. LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys and aerial photography collected before and after the storm showed the loss of every structure within the community of Holly Beach. Average shoreline change along western Louisiana's 140-km-long impacted shore was -23.3 ?? 30.1 m of erosion, although shoreline change in Holly Beach was substantially less, and erosion was not pervasive where the structures were lost. Before the storm, peak elevations of the dunes, or berms in the absence of dunes, along the impacted shore averaged 1.6 m. The storm surge, which reached 3.5 m just east of Holly Beach, completely inundated the beach systems along the impacted western Louisiana shore. The high surge potential and low land elevations make this coast extremely vulnerable to hurricanes. In fact, most of the western Louisiana shore impacted by Rita will be completely inundated by the storm surge of a worst-case Saffi r-Simpson category 1 hurricane. All of this shore will be inundated by worst-case category 2-5 storms. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Mathematical modeling of the moderate storm on 28 February 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eroglu, Emre

2018-04-01

The sun is an active star with plasma-filled prominences. The sudden ejection of the solar plasma creates storms in the form of bursting or spraying. A magnetospheric storm is a typical phenomenon that lasts 1-3 days and involves all magnetosphere from the earth's ionosphere to the magnetotail. The storms are known by different categorical names such as weak, moderate, strong, intense. One of these is the moderate geomagnetic storm on February 28, 2008, which occurred in the 24th solar cycle. The reason for discussing this storm is that it is the first moderate storm in the 24th solar cycle. In this study, we investigate the storm and entered the 24th solar cycle. The correlation among the parametres has been investigated via statistics. The solar wind parameters and the zonal geomagnetic indices have been analyzed separately and then the interaction with each other has been exhibited. The author has concluded the work with two new nonlinear mathematical models. These explain the storm with 79.1% and 87.5% accuracy.

Innovative techniques to analyze time series of geomagnetic activity indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, Georgios; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

2016-04-01

Magnetic storms are undoubtedly among the most important phenomena in space physics and also a central subject of space weather. The non-extensive Tsallis entropy has been recently introduced, as an effective complexity measure for the analysis of the geomagnetic activity Dst index. The Tsallis entropy sensitively shows the complexity dissimilarity among different "physiological" (normal) and "pathological" states (intense magnetic storms). More precisely, the Tsallis entropy implies the emergence of two distinct patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a higher degree of organization, and (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a lower degree of organization. Other entropy measures such as Block Entropy, T-Complexity, Approximate Entropy, Sample Entropy and Fuzzy Entropy verify the above mentioned result. Importantly, the wavelet spectral analysis in terms of Hurst exponent, H, also shows the existence of two different patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a fractional Brownian persistent behavior (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a fractional Brownian anti-persistent behavior. Finally, we observe universality in the magnetic storm and earthquake dynamics, on a basis of a modified form of the Gutenberg-Richter law for the Tsallis statistics. This finding suggests a common approach to the interpretation of both phenomena in terms of the same driving physical mechanism. Signatures of discrete scale invariance in Dst time series further supports the aforementioned proposal.

The Evolution and Role of the Saharan Air Layer During Hurricane Helene (2006)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Sippel, Jason A.; Shie, Chung-Lin; Boller, Ryan A.

2013-01-01

The Saharan air layer (SAL) has received considerable attention in recent years as a potential negative influence on the formation and development of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Observations of substantial Saharan dust in the near environment of Hurricane Helene (2006) during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (AMMA) Experiment (NAMMA) field campaign led to suggestions about the suppressing influence of the SAL in this case. In this study, a suite of satellite remote sensing data, global meteorological analyses, and airborne data are used to characterize the evolution of the SAL in the environment of Helene and assess its possible impact on the intensity of the storm. The influence of the SAL on Helene appears to be limited to the earliest stages of development, although the magnitude of that impact is difficult to determine observationally. Saharan dust was observed on the periphery of the storm during the first two days of development after genesis when intensification was slow. Much of the dust was observed to move well westward of the storm thereafter, with little SAL air present during the remainder of the storm's lifetime and with the storm gradually becoming a category-3 strength storm four days later. Dry air observed to wrap around the periphery of Helene was diagnosed to be primarily non-Saharan in origin (the result of subsidence) and appeared to have little impact on storm intensity. The eventual weakening of the storm is suggested to result from an eyewall replacement cycle and substantial reduction of the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane as its forward motion decreased.

Modeling of storm runoff and pollutant wash off processes during storm event in rapidly urbanizing catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, H. P.; Yu, X. Y.; Khu, S. T.

2009-04-01

Many urban catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast economic growth, population expansion and land use/cover change. Due to the mixture of agricultural/industrial/residential land use or different urbanization level as well as lack of historical monitoring data in the developing area, storm-water runoff pollution modeling is faced with challenges of considerable spatial variations and data insufficiency. Shiyan Reservoir catchment is located in the rapidly urbanizing coastal region of Southeast China. It has six sub-catchments with largely different land use patterns and urbanization levels. A simple semi-distributed model was used to simulate the storm-water runoff pollution process during storm event in the catchment. The model adopted modified IHACRES model and exponential wash-off functions to describe storm-runoff and pollutant wash-off processes, respectively, in each of six sub-catchments. Temporary hydrological and water quality monitoring sites were set at the downstream section of each sub-catchment in Feb-May 2007, spanning non-rain and rain seasons. And the model was calibrated for storm-runoff and water quality data during two typical storm events with rainfall amount of 10mm/4hr and 73mm/5hr, respectively. The results indicated that the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients are greater than 0.65 and 0.55 respectively for storm-runoff model calibration and validation. However although NS coefficients can reach 0.7~0.9 for pollutant wash-off model calibration based on measured data in each storm event, the simulation data can not fit well with the measured data in model validation. According to field survey observation, many litters and residuals were found to distribute in disorder in some sub-catchments or their drainage systems and to instantaneously wash off into the surface water when the rainfall amount and intensity are large enough. In order to improve storm-water runoff pollution simulation in the catchment, the variations of pollutant source and wash off processes in different storm intensity should be consider in future monitoring and model development. Keywords: storm runoff; wash off; urbanization; catchment modeling; litter; residual

Quantifying Precipitation Undercatch in a Semi-arid Watershed in Southeastern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Keefer, T.; Goodrich, D. C.; Heilman, P.; Smith, J. R.; Radford, C. D.; Kautz, M. A.

2017-12-01

The observed difference in precipitation measured at above ground level (AGL) and ground-surface (PIT) rain gauges is referred to as wind-induced undercatch (U). Quantification of U is important to accurately assess the water balance and eco-hydrologic response of watersheds and for the modeling of precipitation driven processes. U is a well-known phenomenon having been documented for over one hundred years. Neff (1977), among many others, provides historical perspective on the "Jevons" effect, the increase in U with increasing height of the rain gauge above the earth's surface. U is primarily an effect of wind on precipitation whereby wind and precipitation particles interact such that U increases with increasing wind velocity and increases with smaller and lighter particles, liquid and solid. In recent decades much research on U has been undertaken in field, laboratory, and numeric modeling studies in the U.S. and Europe (e.g. Sieck et al. 2007). Much variability of U is exhibited by years, seasons and storm events. The Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site located in southeastern Arizona has been measuring precipitation at a AGL and PIT rain gauge, wind profiles, and drop size distribution for the period 2010-2015. Our results show that the cumulative precipitation difference between AGL and PIT average 6% for the six year period, but vary from 1% to 12% annually and more so seasonally. Although winter (Nov 1 - Mar 31) has greater U expressed as percentage, more than 2/3 of the total U amount occurs in summer (Jun 15-Oct 15), in the same proportion as seasonal precipitation. Regression estimated event U is greater than daily and cumulative, but may be much greater for individual storm events. The undercatch amount is linearly related to storm event intensity, increasing with increasing intensity, but the U percentage is non-linearly related and increases with decreasing intensity. In agreement with previous studies, U percentage is greater for shorter intervals, greater in winter during non-convective events than summer convective events at low intensities, and greater for faster wind speeds. Similar results are found for U amount for winter events and for wind speeds, but U amount is greater for longer intervals.

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2018-03-01

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given location. In fact, the driving models induce some significant footprints on the RCM skill to reproduce the intra-seasonal pattern of storm activity.

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

Computational enhancements for the Virginia Department of Transportation Regional River Severe Storm (R2S2) Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-01

Climate change introduces infrastructure flooding challenges, especially for coastal regions with low topographic relief. More frequently occurring intense storms and sea level rise are two projected impacts of climate change that will lead to increa...

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik

2016-01-01

The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms. PMID:27834368

Risks, Health Consequences, and Response Challenges for Small-Island-Based Populations: Observations From the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; Kossin, James P; Shepherd, J Marshall; Ransdell, Justine M; Walshe, Rory; Kelman, Ilan; Galea, Sandro

2018-04-06

ABSTRACTThe intensely active 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season provided an opportunity to examine how climate drivers, including warming oceans and rising seas, exacerbated tropical cyclone hazards. The season also highlighted the unique vulnerabilities of populations residing on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to the catastrophic potential of these storms. During 2017, 22 of the 29 Caribbean SIDS were affected by at least one named storm, and multiple SIDS experienced extreme damage. This paper aims to review the multiplicity of storm impacts on Caribbean SIDS throughout the 2017 season, to explicate the influences of climate drivers on storm formation and intensity, to explore the propensity of SIDS to sustain severe damage and prolonged disruption of essential services, to document the spectrum of public health consequences, and to delineate the daunting hurdles that challenged emergency response and recovery operations for island-based, disaster-affected populations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 13).

Earthward penetration of Pc 4-5 waves and radiation belt electron enhancements during geospace magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daglis, I. A.; Georgiou, M.; Zesta, E.; Balasis, G.; Tsinganos, K.

2013-12-01

This paper addresses the question whether radiation belt electron enhancements are associated with ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave power penetrating to lower L-shells during intense geospace magnetic storms. We have examined the variation of relativistic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere during small, moderate, and intense storms and have compared them with concurrent variations of the power of Pc 4-5 waves, using multi-point wave observations from the IMAGE and CARISMA ground-based magnetometer arrays. We discuss the excitation, growth and decay characteristics of Pc 4-5 waves during the different phases of the three classes of magnetic storms, with particular emphasis on the distribution of wave power over a range of L shells. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2011-1) under grant agreement no. 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

DOE PAGES

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.; ...

2016-11-11

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less

Initialization, Prediction and Diagnosis of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-12

structure on the evolving storm behaviour. 13 7. Large scale influences on Rapid Intensification and Extratropical Transition: RI and ET...assimilation techniques to better initialize and validate TC structures (including the intense inner core and storm asymmetries) consistent with the large...Without vortex specification, initial conditions usually contain a weak and misplaced circulation. Based on estimates of central pressure and storm size

Spatial Patterns of first spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestation of standing Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) after heavy storm damage in Switzerland

Treesearch

R. Gall; A. Heimgartner

2003-01-01

On December 26, 1999, Switzerland was struck by the most severe storm in the country's history. An extensive dataset from the Canton Berne allowed us to test the hypothesis that in regions where windthrown wood was cleared a) the intensity of the first Ips typographus-infestation on standing trees after the storm depends on the distance from...

Environmental Education: Non-point Source Pollution

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This activity is designed to demonstrate to students what an average storm drain collects during a rainfall event and how the water from storm drains can impact the water quality and aquatic environments of local streams, rivers, and bays.

Ion radial diffusion in an electrostatic impulse model for stormtime ring current formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Margaret W.; Schulz, Michael; Lyons, Larry R.; Gorney, David J.

1992-01-01

Two refinements to the quasi-linear theory of ion radial diffusion are proposed and examined analytically with simulations of particle trajectories. The resonance-broadening correction by Dungey (1965) is applied to the quasi-linear diffusion theory by Faelthammar (1965) for an individual model storm. Quasi-linear theory is then applied to the mean diffusion coefficients resulting from simulations of particle trajectories in 20 model storms. The correction for drift-resonance broadening results in quasi-linear diffusion coefficients with discrepancies from the corresponding simulated values that are reduced by a factor of about 3. Further reductions in the discrepancies are noted following the averaging of the quasi-linear diffusion coefficients, the simulated coefficients, and the resonance-broadened coefficients for the 20 storms. Quasi-linear theory provides good descriptions of particle transport for a single storm but performs even better in conjunction with the present ensemble-averaging.

Effects of Geomagnetic Storms on the Postsunset Vertical Plasma Drift in the Equatorial Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chao-Song

2018-05-01

It has been observed that geomagnetic storms cause suppression of the occurrence of equatorial spread F or plasma bubbles in the evening sector. In this study, we use ion drift data measured by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite over 6 years (2008-2014) to derive the dependence of the vertical ion drift at the prereversal enhancement peak on the strength of magnetic storms (the Dst index). It is found that the average vertical ion drift does not change much for Dst in the range between 0 and -60 nT but decreases approximately linearly with the increasing magnitude of Dst for Dst < -60 nT. The net decrease in the average vertical ion drift is 30 m/s when Dst changes from -60 to -90 nT. This result is derived when the ion drift data during the storm main phase are excluded, so the decrease of the vertical ion drift is caused by storm time disturbance dynamo. A possible interpretation of this phenomenon is that geomagnetic activity must be strong enough (e.g., Dst < -60 nT) so disturbance winds can reach the equatorial region and change plasma drifts there. The storm time disturbance dynamo becomes dominant in the equatorial ionospheric dynamics near the end of the storm main phase, 4.7 hr after the storm onset. The postsunset vertical ion drift is significantly decreased during the early stage of the storm recovery phase but becomes almost fully recovered when Dst increases close to -60 nT.

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX-4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an MCS. The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large-scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

On the Role of Last Closed Drift Shell Dynamics in Driving Fast Losses and Van Allen Radiation Belt Extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olifer, L.; Mann, I. R.; Morley, S. K.; Ozeke, L. G.; Choi, D.

2018-05-01

We present observations of very fast radiation belt loss as resolved using high time resolution electron flux data from the constellation of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The time scale of these losses is revealed to be as short as ˜0.5-2 hr during intense magnetic storms, with some storms demonstrating almost total loss on these time scales and which we characterize as radiation belt extinction. The intense March 2013 and March 2015 storms both show such fast extinction, with a rapid recovery, while the September 2014 storm shows fast extinction but no recovery for around 2 weeks. By contrast, the moderate September 2012 storm which generated a three radiation belt morphology shows more gradual loss. We compute the last closed drift shell (LCDS) for each of these four storms and show a very strong correspondence between the LCDS and the loss patterns of trapped electrons in each storm. Most significantly, the location of the LCDS closely mirrors the high time resolution losses observed in GPS flux. The fast losses occur on a time scale shorter than the Van Allen Probes orbital period, are explained by proximity to the LCDS, and progress inward, consistent with outward transport to the LCDS by fast ultralow frequency wave radial diffusion. Expressing the location of the LCDS in L*, and not model magnetopause standoff distance in units of RE, clearly reveals magnetopause shadowing as the cause of the fast loss observed by the GPS satellites.

Rainfall and Erosion Response Following a Southern California Wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlgemuth, P. M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Brown, R. E.

2011-12-01

Wildfire renders landscapes susceptible to flooding and accelerated surface erosion. Consumption of the vegetation canopy and the litter or duff layer removes resistances to the agents of erosion. Moreover, changes in soil properties can restrict infiltration, increasing the effectiveness of the driving forces of rainsplash and surface runoff. However, it is unclear whether surface erosion varies linearly with rainfall amounts and intensities or if thresholds exist beyond which erosion increases in a different trajectory. The Santiago Fire burned over 11000 ha in northeastern Orange County, California in October 2007. The burn area consists of a deeply dissected mountain block underlain by sedimentary and metamorphic rocks that produce erosive soils. Regional erosion and sediment transport is triggered by winter cyclonic storms. Recording raingages were deployed across a vertical gradient within the burned area and silt fences were constructed to monitor hillslope erosion. During the study period initial storms were characterized by moderate rainfall (amounts less than 25 mm with peak 10-minute intensities of less than 10 mm per hr). Surface erosion was concomitantly minor, less than 0.4 Mg per ha. However, an unusual thunderstorm in late May 2008 produced spatially variable rainfall and consequent surface erosion across the study area. The raingage at a lower elevation site measured 41.4 mm of rain for this storm with a peak 10-minute intensity of 81 mm per hr. The silt fences were overtopped, yielding a minimum value of 18.5 Mg per ha. In contrast, the raingage at an upper elevation site recorded 19.6 mm of rain with a peak 10-minute intensity of 50 mm per hr. Surface erosion in the higher elevation sites was negligible (0.1 Mg per ha). Subsequently, individual storms exceeded 100 mm of rainfall but peak 10-minute intensities never approached those of the May thunderstorm. Erosion was moderate (mostly less than 5 Mg per ha), albeit influenced by the presence of regrowing vegetation. We therefore believe that surface erosion in the immediate postfire environment is more related to storm intensity than rainfall amount. Even allowing for site-to-site differences and site changes over the first postfire winter season, it is clear that some threshold in erosion response was crossed at the lower elevation sites during the May 2008 thunderstorm. We suggest that this represents a threshold of peak 10-minute intensity of between 50 and 80 mm per hr.

Modeling the refraction of microbaroms by the winds of a large maritime storm.

PubMed

Blom, Philip; Waxler, Roger

2017-12-01

Continuous infrasonic signals produced by the ocean surface interacting with the atmosphere, termed microbaroms, are known to be generated by a number of phenomena including large maritime storms. Storm generated microbaroms exhibit axial asymmetry when observed at locations far from the storm due to the source location being offset from the storm center. Because of this offset, a portion of the microbarom energy will radiate towards the storm center and interact with the winds in the region. Detailed here are predictions for the propagation of microbaroms through an axisymmetric, three-dimensional model storm. Geometric propagation methods have been utilized and the predicted horizontal refraction is found to produce signals that appear to emanate from a virtual source near the storm center when observed far from the storm. This virtual source near the storm center is expected to be observed only from a limited arc around the storm system with increased extent associated with more intense wind fields. This result implies that identifying the extent of the arc observing signal from the virtual source could provide a means to estimate the wind structure using infrasonic observations far from the storm system.

Disturbance Driven Rainfall in O`ahu, Hawai`i (1990-2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, R. J.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kaiser, L.; Newman, A. J.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Trade wind orographic rainfall is the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai`i and provides a year-round source of moisture to the windward areas across the Island chain. Significant contributions to total and extreme precipitation have also been linked to one of four atmospheric disturbance situations that include: cold fronts, Kona storms, upper-tropospheric disturbances (upper level lows), and tropical systems. The primary objective of this research is to determine how these disturbance types contribute to total wet-season rainfall (RF) on the Island of O`ahu, Hawai`i and to identify any significant changes in the frequency of occurrence and or the intensity of these events. Atmospheric fronts that occurred in the Hawai`i region (17-26°N, 150-165°W) were extracted from a global dataset and combined with a Kona low and upper level low dataset to create a daily categorical weather classification time series (1990-2010). Mean rainfall was extracted from gridded daily O`ahu RF maps. Results show that the difference between a wet and dry year is predominantly explained by the RF contributions from disturbance events (r2 = 0.57, p < 0.01), in particularly, the contributions coming from Kona low and cold fronts that cross the Island. During the wettest season on record, disturbances accounted for 48% of the total RF, while during the driest season they accounted for only 6% of the total RF. The event-based RF analysis also compared the RF intensity in the absence of disturbance events with the average RF intensity on days when atmospheric fronts are present but do not cross the island. The results show that non-crossing fronts reduce the average RF intensity. A possible explanation is that these events are too far away to produce RF, but close enough to disrupt normal trade wind flow, thus limiting orographic RF on the island. This new event-based RF analysis has important implications for the projection of regional climate change in Hawai`i. Our results suggest that if storm tracks were to shift poleward, O`ahu wet season RF would be reduced. The most obvious effect is that fronts crossing the Island would likely occur less frequently reducing the number of days per year with heavy cold front rainfall. In addition, non-crossing fronts could occur more often and hence reducing the orographic RF.

Hurricane Darby off the Pacific Coast of Mexico

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-07-26

Hurricane Darby as observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder AIRS onboard NASA Aqua in July, 2004. This daylight image of Hurricane Darby on July 28 was made with the visible sensor in the AIRS instrument suite. After reaching sustained winds on July 27 of 100 knots (115 mph) with gusts to 120 knots (138 mph), the intensity of the storm is now lowered to 75 knots (86 mph). Located in the eastern north Pacific Ocean located about 1,165 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, the storm continues its west/northwest path at 14 knots (16mph). Figure 1 is a daylight snapshot from AIRS visible/near-infrared sensor before Darby became a tropical storm. Darby is in the upper right-hand corner. Circulation is not apparent because the storm was not organized sufficiently to allow the nascent eye to appear. At this time, winds were approximately 35 mph. Figure 2 is an AIRS infrared image. Darby falls on the edge of two AIRS data granules, which have been "stitched" together in this image. Storm intensity is lowered to 75 knots (86 mph), down from 100 knots (115 mph). http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00439

Ionospheric Scintillations from Conjugate Stations during the 2015 St. Patrick Storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'angelo, G.; Piersanti, M.; Alfonsi, L.; Spogli, L.

2016-12-01

The storm onset on the St. Patrick day of March 2015 triggered several fluctuations of the electron density causing severe scintillations at polar latitudes of both hemispheres. L-band monitoring of the ionosphere can be accomplished by means of specially modified GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) receivers capable to sample the received signals at 50 Hz. Thanks to the availability of data acquired by such kind of devices, we had the opportunity to investigate the ionospheric response, in terms of GPS phase scintillations, recorded at ground in Antarctica and in the Arctic. In particular, we analyzed data from Eureka (79.99°N, 274.10°E) and Concordia (75.10°S, 123.35°E) stations to look at the conjugate response of the ionosphere to the most intense storm of the current solar cycle. We found an asymmetric response of the intensity of the phase scintillations recorded at the same Universal Time (UT) by the two stations during the main phase of the storm. While we found a completely asymmetric response (in terms of hemisphere, UT and intensity) during the recovery phase. By using the POES and GOES magnetospheric field and electron density data, we evaluated the magnetospheric field and the electron flux responses to the storm. We used the TS04 (Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005) model prevision to estimate the current configurations that better reproduce the actual magnetospheric observations. Additionally, we adopted the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions, applied to L1 satellites measurements, to assess the normal direction of the interplanetary shock. The proposed multi-disciplinary approach revealed to be a powerful tool to explain the symmetric/asymmetric response of the scintillations occurrence over the two conjugated stations. The storm onset on the St. Patrick day of March 2015 triggered several fluctuations of the electron density causing severe scintillations at polar latitudes of both hemispheres. L-band monitoring of the ionosphere can be accomplished by means of specially modified GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) receivers capable to sample the received signals at 50 Hz. Thanks to the availability of data acquired by such kind of devices, we had the opportunity to investigate the ionospheric response, in terms of GPS phase scintillations, recorded at ground in Antarctica and in the Arctic. In particular, we analyzed data from Eureka (79.99°N, 274.10°E) and Concordia (75.10°S, 123.35°E) stations to look at the conjugate response of the ionosphere to the most intense storm of the current solar cycle. We found an asymmetric response of the intensity of the phase scintillations recorded at the same Universal Time (UT) by the two stations during the main phase of the storm. While we found a completely asymmetric response (in terms of hemisphere, UT and intensity) during the recovery phase. By using the POES and GOES magnetospheric field and electron density data, we evaluated the magnetospheric field and the electron flux responses to the storm. We used the TS04 (Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005) model prevision to estimate the current configurations that better reproduce the actual magnetospheric observations. Additionally, we adopted the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions, applied to L1 satellites measurements, to assess the normal direction of the interplanetary shock. The proposed multi-disciplinary approach revealed to be a powerful tool to explain the symmetric/asymmetric response of the scintillations occurrence over the two conjugated stations.

Introducing stochastics into the simulation of convective precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistotnik, Georg

2010-05-01

In a joint project, the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) and the Vienna University of Technology aimed to characterize strong precipitation events and their impact in the Bucklige Welt region in Eastern Austria. Both the region's hydrological and meteorological characteristics, namely its composition of virtually countless small catchments with short response times and a high frequency of summertime convective storms, cause the occurrence of flooding to be strictly tied to convective rainfall events, which is why this study has been focused on this type of precipitation. The meteorological database consists of the ZAMG's high-resolution analysis and nowcasting system INCA ("Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis"), which provides a set of precipitation analyses generated by a statistically optimized combination of rain gauge measurements and radar data with a temporal resolution of 15 minutes and a spatial resolution of 1 kilometre. An intensity threshold of 3.8mm/15min has been used to classify any observed precipitation as a convective one, thus extracting 245 convection days with a total number of almost 1600 individual storm events over the project region out of the 5-year data set from 2003 to 2007. Consecutive analyses were used to compute the motion of these storms, a complex process that could not be completely automatized; due to the repeated occurrence of storm splits or coalescences, a manual control of the automatically provided "suggestion" of movement had to be performed in order to merge two or more precipitation maxima to a single storm if necessary, thus yielding the smoothest and most plausible storm tracks and ensuring a high quality of the database. In the first part of the project, distributions for all characteristic parameters have been derived, including the number of storms per day, their place and time of initiation, their motion, lifetime, maximum intensity and maximum "cell volume" (i.e. overall precipitation per time step). Both components of the mean motion as well as of its deviations could be approximated by normal distributions, whereas the number of storms per day, their lifetime, maximum intensity and maximum cell volume roughly followed exponential distributions. The shapes of the convective cells were approximated by Gaussian bells with the peak intensity and the cell volume as boundary conditions. The temporal courses of the peak intensities and cell volumes were assumed to follow parabolas which are symmetric with respect to the half of the lifetime. In the second part of the project, these distributions were used to drive a random generator that allows simulating an arbitrary number of convection days in order to obtain pseudo time series of convective precipitation for each grid point. An algorithm to create correlated samples of random numbers enabled to also account for the observed correlation between some of the parameters, i.e. lifetime and maximum intensity or maximum cell volume. The spatial structures of the return periods of simulated convective precipitation events may provide valuable additional information when being assimilated to the time series measured by the (unfortunately rather sparse) rain gauges in this region. Thus, further studies have to investigate to what extent the "convection simulator" is able to reproduce these time series. Some iterative fine-tuning of the parameters' distributions as well as an extension of the database to a longer time span may further improve the results and enable to simulate realistic spatio-temporal convection scenarios ("design storms") that have the potential to feed hydrological models and, together with vegetation and soil characteristics, hopefully enable to better assess and regionalize the torrent hazard over the project region.

The probability of occurrence of high-loss windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massey, Neil

2016-04-01

Windstorms are one of the largest meteorological risks to life and property in Europe. High - loss windstorms, in terms of insured losses, are a result of not only the windspeed of the storm but also the position and track of the storm. The two highest loss storms on record, Daria (1990) and Lothar (1999) caused so much damage because they tracked across highly populated areas of Europe. Although the frequency and intensity of high - loss wind storms in the observed record is known, there are not enough samples, due to the short observed record, to truly know the distribution of the frequency and intensity of windstorms over Europe and, by extension, the distribution of losses which could occur if the atmosphere had been in a different state due to the internal variability of the atmosphere. Risk and loss modelling exercises carried out by and for the reinsurance industry have typically stochastically perturbed the historical record of high - loss windstorms to produce distributions of potential windstorms with greater sample sizes than the observations. This poster presents a new method of generating many samples of potential windstorms and analyses the frequency of occurrence, intensity and potential losses of these windstorms. The large ensemble regional climate modelling project weather@home is used to generate many regional climate model representations (800 per year) of the weather over Europe between 1985 and 2010. The regional climate model is driven at the boundaries by a free running global climate model and so each ensemble member represents a potential state of the atmosphere, rather than an observed state. The winter storm season of October to March is analysed by applying an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm to each ensemble member. From the resulting tracks, the windspeed within a 1000km radius of the cyclone centre is extracted and the maximum windspeed over a 72 hour period is derived as the storm windspeed footprint. This footprint is fed into a population based loss model to estimate the losses for the storm. Additionally the same analysis is performed on data from the same regional climate model, driven at the boundaries by ERA - Interim. This allows the tracks and losses of the storms in the observed record to be recovered using the same tracking method and loss model. A storm track matching function is applied to the storm tracks in the large ensemble and so analogues of the observed storms can be recovered. The frequency of occurrence of the high - loss storms in the large ensemble can then be determined, and used as a proxy for the frequency of occurrence in the observations.

Study of pre-storm environment by using rawinsonde and satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Tsao, Y. D.

1987-01-01

Rawinsonde and satellite remote sensing data were utilized to examine the prestorm environment and mechanisms for the initiation of four groups of severe storms. The storms in Altus, Oklahoma, Pampas, Texas, Bennett, Colorado, and Red River Valley, Oklahoma are described. The geographical distributions of the areas of high moisture concentration and variations of tropopause heights for the storm groups are analyzed. It is detected that in the area of a low-level high concentration of moisture, the local tropopause height is lowest at the time of the storm cloud formation and development, and the potential energy storage per unit areas for the overshootiong clouds penetrating above the tropopause is related to the intensity of the storms produced. Numerical cloud modeling was performed for the storms. The model data are compared with the satellite and rawinsonde observations, and it is noted that the data correlate well.

Severe Weather Guide - Mediterranean Ports. 7. Marseille

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

the afternoon. Upper—level westerlies and the associated storm track is moved northward during summer, so extratropical cyclones and associated...autumn as the extratropical storm track moves southward. Precipitation amount is the highest of the year, with an average of 3 inches (76 mm) for the...18 SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) Storm haven Mediterranean meteorology Marseille port

Comparing and Linking Post-fire Hillslope Erosion and Channel Change for Different Storm Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, Lee; Kampf, Stephanie; Brogan, Dan; Schmeer, Sarah; Nelson, Peter

2016-04-01

Moderate and high severity wildfires can greatly reduce infiltration rates, leading to orders of magnitude increases in hillslope-scale runoff and erosion rates. These increases can cause dramatic downstream channel change, with post-fire deposition being most common, but this depends on the number, magnitude and timing of storm events. The objective of this study is to compare post-fire hillslope erosion rates and downstream channel change from two distinct rainfall events approximately one year after burning. The first was a set of relatively typical, higher-intensity convective storms in June-August 2013, and the second was a highly unusual, week-long ~270 mm rainstorm in September 2013. The study was conducted in two ~15 km2 watersheds that had two-thirds of their area burned at high or moderate severity by 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Hillslope erosion was measured with sediment fences at 29 sites grouped into five clusters, with each cluster having an associated tipping bucket rain gage. Downstream channel change was monitored at approximately ten cross-sections in each of the two watersheds, Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch. Twelve summer storms produced an overall mean hillslope erosion of 6 Mg ha-1, with higher rainfall intensities at lower elevations and in Skin Gulch causing higher sediment yields. The higher sediment yields in Skin Gulch caused substantial downstream deposition of up to 0.8 m at most cross-sections. Generally lower rainfall in Hill Gulch resulted in less Horton overland flow and hence lower erosion rates and much less downstream deposition. The September storm had roughly twice as much rainfall as the summer thunderstorms, but there were much lower peak rainfall intensities and hillslope-scale sediment yields except where shallow bedrock induced saturation overland flow. The much longer duration of the September storm resulted in sustained high flows, and these flows plus the lower hillslope erosion caused most of the cross-sections to incise rather than aggrade. Maximum mean bed incision was nearly one meter and some cross-sections also exhibited considerable lateral migration, removing much of the aggraded sediment from the previous two summer storm seasons. The results indicate that: 1) sediment yields are best correlated with the amount of precipitation above a given intensity threshold; 2) this threshold tends to increase over time with increasing surface cover; and 3) the standard trajectory of post-fire channel change can be completely altered by extreme storm events.

Meteorological aspects associated with dust storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Rashki, A.; Houssos, E. E.; Mofidi, A.; Goto, D.; Bartzokas, A.; Francois, P.; Legrand, M.

2015-07-01

Dust storms are considered natural hazards that seriously affect atmospheric conditions, ecosystems and human health. A key requirement for investigating the dust life cycle is the analysis of the meteorological (synoptic and dynamic) processes that control dust emission, uplift and transport. The present work focuses on examining the synoptic and dynamic meteorological conditions associated with dust-storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran during the summer season (June-September) of the years 2001-2012. The dust-storm days (total number of 356) are related to visibility records below 1 km at Zabol meteorological station, located near to the dust source. RegCM4 model simulations indicate that the intense northern Levar wind, the high surface heating and the valley-like characteristics of the region strongly affect the meteorological dynamics and the formation of a low-level jet that are strongly linked with dust exposures. The intra-annual evolution of the dust storms does not seem to be significantly associated with El-Nino Southern Oscillation, despite the fact that most of the dust-storms are related to positive values of Oceanic Nino Index. National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis suggests that the dust storms are associated with low sea-level pressure conditions over the whole south Asia, while at 700 hPa level a trough of low geopotential heights over India along with a ridge over Arabia and central Iran is the common scenario. A significant finding is that the dust storms over Sistan are found to be associated with a pronounced increase of the anticyclone over the Caspian Sea, enhancing the west-to-east pressure gradient and, therefore, the blowing of Levar. Infrared Difference Dust Index values highlight the intensity of the Sistan dust storms, while the SPRINTARS model simulates the dust loading and concentration reasonably well, since the dust storms are usually associated with peaks in model simulations.

Storm flow export of metolachlor from a coastal plain watershed.

PubMed

Watts, D W; Novak, J M; Johnson, M H; Stone, K C

2000-03-01

During an 18-month (1994-1995) survey of the surface water in an Atlantic Coastal Plain watershed, metolachlor was most frequently detected during storm flow events. Therefore, a sampling procedure, focused on storm flow, was implemented in June of 1996. During 1996, three tropical cyclones made landfall within 150 km of the watershed. These storms, as well as several summer thunderstorms, produced six distinct storm flow events within the watershed. Metolachlor was detected leaving the watershed during each event. In early September, Hurricane Fran produced the largest storm flow event and accounted for the majority of the metolachlor exports. During the storm event triggered by Hurricane Fran, the highest daily average flow (7.5 m2 s-1) and highest concentration (5.1 micrograms L-1) ever measured at the watershed outlet were recorded. Storm flow exports leaving the watershed represented 0.1 g ha-1 or about 0.04% of active ingredient applied.

Formation and Development of Diabatic Rossby Vortices in a 10-Year Climatology

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

subsequent low-level PV generation. 4. The “Perfect Storms ” Cordeira and Bosart (2011; hereafter CB11) noted there were two intense extratropical ...northeast. While more DRVs form during the warm season, a larger fraction of storms that explosively deepen occur during the cold season. Composite...preferentially over warm ocean currents. All DRVs track to the east northeast. While more DRVs form during the warm season, a larger fraction of storms that

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

Effect of TADs on the F-region of Low midlatitude ionosphere during intense geomagnetic storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhayaya, Arun Kumar; Joshi, Shivani; Singh Dabas, Raj; Das, Rupesh M.; Yadav, Sneha

Effect of TAD's on the F region ionosphere of low-mid latitude ionosphere during three intense storms of20 th Nov,2003(-422nT),30 th Oct 2003(-383nT),07Nov,2004(-373nT)respectively are studued using ionosonde data of Delhi(28ø N 77øE).It has been seen that the electon density profile in the F1 region are greatly influenced by the TAD's presence. Further the pre-existing F1 cusp become better devloped during the passage of TAD's.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Aris P. Georgakakos; Sankar Arumugam; James Cruise; Richard T. McNider; Adam Terando; Paul A. Conrads; John Feldt; Vasu Misra; Luigi Romolo; Todd C. Rasmussen; Daniel A. Marion

2013-01-01

Key FindingsClimate change is affecting the southeastern USA, particularly increases in rainfall variability and air temperature, which have resulted in more frequent hydrologic extremes, such as high‐intensity storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), flooding, and drought events.Future climate warming likely will...

Are Eyewall Replacement Cycles Governed Largely by Axisymmetric Balance Dynamics?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

this viewpoint, the inward contraction of an eyewall is a mechanism driven by differential diabatic heating, and friction plays an un- important role...shows the azimuthally averaged kinematic and thermodynamical structure of the RAMS simulation, along with the corresponding averaged diabatic heating rate...structure of the storm, with the 360-K isotherm sloping upward from 9 to 13.5km between the center of the storm and 150-km radius. The mean diabatic heating

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall pH

Treesearch

Richard G. Semonin

1977-01-01

The distribution of average rainwater pH over an area of 1,800 km² containing 81 collectors was determined from 25 storm events. The areal average of the data was pH 4.9, with a range of values from 4.3 to 6.8. A single storm event was studied to determine the change of pH as a function of time. The initial rain was pH 7.1, decreasing to 4.1. An excellent...

Impact of the Icme-Earth Geometry on the Strength of the Associated Geomagnetic Storm: The September 2014 and March 2015 Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, K.-S.; Marubashi, K.; Kim, R.-S.; Park, S.-H.; Lim, E.-K.; Kim, S.-J.; Kumar, P.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Moon, Y.-J.; Lee, J.-O.

2017-04-01

We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -75 nT) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME (1267 km s^{-1}) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -223 nT) caused by a CME with moderate speed (719 km s^{-1}) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long-duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.

First flush characteristics of rainfall runoff from a paddy field in the Taihu Lake watershed, China.

PubMed

Li, Songmin; Wang, Xiaoling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Jiansheng; Tu, Jiamin

2017-03-01

Nonpoint storm runoff remains a major threat to surface water quality in China. As a paddy matures, numerous fertilizers are needed, especially in the rainy seasons; the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainfall runoff from farmland is much higher than at other times, and this poses a great threat to water bodies and is the main reason for water eutrophication, especially in high concentration drainages. To date, most studies regarding the characteristics of pollutants in rainfall runoff have mainly been concentrated on urban runoff and watershed runoff; therefore, it is particularly important to investigate the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss in rainfall runoff from paddy fields. To study the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss and whether the first flush effect exists, continuous monitoring of the rainfall runoff process of six rainfall events was conducted in 2013, of which four rainfall events during storm, high, middle, and low intensity rainfalls were analyzed, and runoff and quality parameters, such as suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium nitrogen (NH 4 + -N), nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 - -N), total phosphorus (TP), and phosphate (PO 4 3- -P), were analyzed to determine the relationship between runoff and water quality. The paddy field is located north of Wuxi Lake Basin along the Hejia River upstream in Zhoutie town, Yixing city. An analysis of the load distribution during rainfall runoff was conducted. Event mean concentration (EMC) was used to evaluate the pollution situation of the paddy field's rainfall runoff. A curve of the dimensionless normalized cumulative load (L) vs. normalized cumulative flow (F) (L-F curve), the probability of the mass first flush (MFFn), and the pollutants carried by the initial 25% of runoff (FF 25 ) were used to analyze the first flush effect of the paddy field runoff, and different contaminants show different results: the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus fluctuate and follow a similar trend as runoff changes, NO 3 - -N concentration is lower in the early part of runoff and higher in the later, and TP mainly occurs in the particle state in storm runoff and mainly in the dissolved state when the rainfall intensity is smaller. Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from paddy fields are closely related to the average rainfall intensity and the max rainfall intensity, and the runoff loss of nitrogen and phosphorus is more severe when the rainfall intensity is large. Based on an analysis of multiple methodologies, TN and NH 4 + -N show a certain degree of a first flush effect, whereas the first flush effect of TP is not obvious. The first flush effect of SS is obvious in larger intensity rainfall and shows a slight secondary flush effect in smaller rainfall events.

Operational Impact of Data Collected from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft During SHOUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; Sippel, J.; Cucurull, L.; Aksoy, A.; Kren, A.; Christophersen, H.; Black, P.

2017-12-01

The primary scientific goal of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project was to determine the potential utility of observations from high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems such as the Global Hawk (GH) aircraft to improve operational forecasts of high-impact weather events or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are among the most potentially destructive high-impact weather events and pose a major forecasting challenge to NOAA. Major winter storms over the Pacific Ocean, including atmospheric river events, which make landfall and bring strong winds and extreme precipitation to the West Coast and Alaska are also important to forecast accurately because of their societal impact in those parts of the country. In response, the SHOUT project supported three field campaigns with the GH aircraft and dedicated data impact studies exploring the potential for the real-time data from the aircraft to improve the forecasting of both tropical cyclones and landfalling Pacific storms. Dropsonde observations from the GH aircraft were assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. The results from several diverse but complementary studies consistently demonstrated significant positive forecast benefits spanning the regional and global models. Forecast skill improvements within HWRF reached up to about 9% for track and 14% for intensity. Within GFS, track skill improvements for multi-storm averages exceeded 10% and improvements for individual storms reached over 20% depending on forecast lead time. Forecasted precipitation was also improved. Impacts for Pacific winter storms were smaller but still positive. The results are highly encouraging and support the potential for operational utilization of data from a platform like the GH. This presentation summarizes the observations collected and highlights the multiple impact studies completed.

Streams in the urban heat island: spatial and temporal variability in temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Somers, Kayleigh A.; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Grace, James B.; Hassett, Brooke A.; Sudduth, Elizabeth B.; Wang, Siyi; Urban, Dean L.

2013-01-01

Streams draining urban heat islands tend to be hotter than rural and forested streams at baseflow because of warmer urban air and ground temperatures, paved surfaces, and decreased riparian canopy. Urban infrastructure efficiently routes runoff over hot impervious surfaces and through storm drains directly into streams and can lead to rapid, dramatic increases in temperature. Thermal regimes affect habitat quality and biogeochemical processes, and changes can be lethal if temperatures exceed upper tolerance limits of aquatic fauna. In summer 2009, we collected continuous (10-min interval) temperature data in 60 streams spanning a range of development intensity in the Piedmont of North Carolina, USA. The 5 most urbanized streams averaged 21.1°C at baseflow, compared to 19.5°C in the 5 most forested streams. Temperatures in urban streams rose as much as 4°C during a small regional storm, whereas the same storm led to extremely small to no changes in temperature in forested streams. Over a kilometer of stream length, baseflow temperature varied by as much as 10°C in an urban stream and as little as 2°C in a forested stream. We used structural equation modeling to explore how reach- and catchment-scale attributes interact to explain maximum temperatures and magnitudes of storm-flow temperature surges. The best predictive model of baseflow temperatures (R2  =  0.461) included moderately strong pathways directly (extent of development and road density) and indirectly, as mediated by reach-scale factors (canopy closure and stream width), from catchment-scale factors. The strongest influence on storm-flow temperature surges appeared to be % development in the catchment. Reach-scale factors, such as the extent of riparian forest and stream width, had little mitigating influence (R2  =  0.448). Stream temperature is an essential, but overlooked, aspect of the urban stream syndrome and is affected by reach-scale habitat variables, catchment-scale urbanization, and stream thermal regimes.

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furl, Chad; Sharif, Hatim; ElHassan, Almoutaz; Mazari, Newfel; Burtch, Daniel; Mullendore, Gretchen

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred 7-8 September 2010 across central Texas resulting in several fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, TX and immediately north where twenty four hour accumulations reached a 500 year recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, TX where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s-1. The large flows were produced from a narrow band of intense storm cells training over the small watershed for approximately six hours. Meteorological analysis along with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico were important features producing the locally heavy rainfall. The effect from the Balcones Escarpment was explicitly tested by conducting simulations with and without the escarpment terrain. High resolution, gauge adjusted radar collected as part of a flash flood warning system was used to describe spatiotemporal rainfall patterns and force the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The radar dataset indicated the basin received nearly 300 mm of precipitation with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm hr-1. Roughly 60 percent of storm totals fell during two periods lasting a combined five hours. Stream flow showed a highly non-linear response to two periods of intense rainfall. GSSHA simulations indicate this can be partially explained by the spatial organization of rainfall coupled with landscape retention.

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Variations in storm response along a microtidal transgressive barrier-island arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, J. H.; Roberts, H. H.

1982-10-01

Storm response along the transgressive Chandeleur barrier-island arc southeast of the Mississippi delta plain is variable because of local differences in sediment supply, shoreline orientation and barrier morphology. A study of the morphological impact of Hurricane Frederic (1979) affirmed that tropical storms are the primary agents causing erosion and migration of this barrier arc. Frederic's greatest impact was in the duneless southern Chandeleurs, where sheet-flow overwash caused flattening of the barrier profile, destruction of a strip of marsh 50-100 m wide, and shoreline retreat of approximately 30 m. In contrast, overwash in the northern Chandeleurs was confined between dunes in channels established by previous storms. This channelized overwash breached the northern Chandeleur barriers in nineteen places. As Frederic passed, return flow through these channels transported overwashed sediment back to the nearshore zone. These ebb deposits were a source for longshore drift sediments, which quickly sealed storm channels, reestablishing a coherent northern Chandeleur barrier arc. These storm response patterns may help explain long-term changes in barrier morphology. During an 84-yr period (1885-1969) the southern Chandeleurs decreased 41 % in area, with an average retreat rate of 9.1 m yr -1, compared to a 15% increase in area and an average shoreline retreat rate of 7.2 m yr -1 for the northern Chandeleurs.

Dune recovery after storm erosion on a high-energy beach: Vougot Beach, Brittany (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suanez, Serge; Cariolet, Jean-Marie; Cancouët, Romain; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Delacourt, Christophe

2012-02-01

On 10th March 2008, the high energy storm Johanna hit the French Atlantic coast, generating severe dune erosion on Vougot Beach (Brittany, France). In this paper, the recovery of the dune of Vougot Beach is analysed through a survey of morphological changes and hydrodynamic conditions. Data collection focused on the period immediately following storm Johanna until July 2010, i.e. over two and a half years. Results showed that the dune retreated by a maximum of almost 6 m where storm surge and wave attack were the most energetic. Dune retreat led to the creation of accommodation space for the storage of sediment by widening and elevating space between the pre- and post-storm dune toe, and reducing impacts of the storm surge. Dune recovery started in the month following the storm event and is still ongoing. It is characterised by the construction of "secondary" embryo dunes, which recovered at an average rate of 4-4.5 cm per month, although average monthly volume changes varied from - 1 to 2 m 3.m - 1 . These embryo dunes accreted due to a large aeolian sand supply from the upper tidal beach to the existing foredune. These dune-construction processes were facilitated by growth of vegetation on low-profile embryo dunes promoting backshore accretion. After more than two years of survey, the sediment budget of the beach/dune system showed that more than 10,000 m 3 has been lost by the upper tidal beach. We suggest that seaward return currents generated during the storm of 10th March 2008 are responsible for offshore sediment transport. Reconstitution of the equilibrium beach profile following the storm event may therefore have generated cross-shore sediment redistribution inducing net erosion in the tidal zone.

Powerful Hurricane Irma Seen in 3D by NASA's CloudSat

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-08

NASA's CloudSat satellite flew over Hurricane Irma on Sept. 6, 2017 at 1:45 p.m. EDT (17:45 UTC) as the storm was approaching Puerto Rico in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Irma contained estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour (160 knots) with a minimum pressure of 918 millibars. CloudSat transected the eastern edge of Hurricane Irma's eyewall, revealing details of the storm's cloud structure beneath its thick canopy of cirrus clouds. The CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar excels in detecting the organization and placement of cloud layers beneath a storm's cirrus canopy, which are not readily detected by other satellite sensors. The CloudSat overpass reveals the inner details beneath the cloud tops of this large system; intense areas of convection with moderate to heavy rainfall (deep red and pink colors), cloud-free areas (moats) in between the inner and outer cloud bands of Hurricane Irma and cloud top heights averaging around 9 to 10 miles (15 to 16 kilometers). Lower values of reflectivity (areas of green and blue) denote smaller-sized ice and water particle sizes typically located at the top of a storm system (in the anvil area). The Cloud Profiling Radar loses signal at around 3 miles (5 kilometers) in height (in the melting layer) due to water (ice) particles larger than 0.12 inches (3 millimeters) in diameter. Moderate to heavy rainfall occurs in these areas where signal weakening is detectable. Smaller cumulus and cumulonimbus cloud types are evident as CloudSat moves farther south, beneath the thick cirrus canopy. An animation is available at https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21947

Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Hiroshi; Wu, Wenjie

2016-03-01

Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estimation methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage of strong typhoons, together with the JMA typhoon best track data for 1990-2013, enabled us to derive the following simple equation, Rmax = 0.23 R50. Application to a recent strong typhoon, the 2015 Typhoon Goni, confirms that the equation provides a good estimation of Rmax, particularly when the central pressure became considerably low. Although this new method substantially improves the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, estimation errors are unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation for the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan as well as 2015 Typhoon Goni demonstrates a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations (e.g., Rmax = 0.15 R50-0.35 R50), independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over- or underestimating storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the predictability of major storm surges and to contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

An intense, quasi-steady thunderstorm over mountainous terrain. I - Evolution of the storm-initiating mesoscale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, W. R.; George, R. L.; Knupp, K. R.

1982-01-01

The evolution of mesoscale systems that eventually lead to the formation of large quasi-steady storm systems is investigated. The morphological and turbulent structure of the quasi-steady storm is described. Data obtained during the South Park Area Cumulus Experiment from surface meteorological stations, rawinsondes and tethered balloons, conventional and Doppler radars, powered aircraft, and satellites, indicate that on July 19, 1977, a north-south oriented line of intense convective cells formed and remained within South Park. Elevated surface heating created a region of low-level convergence, importing Pacific moisture from west of the Rockies. The mesoscale thunderstorm line formed over this convergence zone, and a single large convective cell was observed to grow on the southern end of the mesoscale line, exhibiting supercell characteristics and substantial modifications of the environmental flow.

On the role of last closed drift shell dynamics in driving fast losses and Van Allen radiation belt extinction

DOE PAGES

Olifer, Leonid; Mann, Ian R.; Morley, Steven Karl; ...

2018-04-20

We present observations of very fast radiation belt loss as resolved using high time resolution electron flux data from the constellation of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The time scale of these losses is revealed to be as short as ~0.5–2 hr during intense magnetic storms, with some storms demonstrating almost total loss on these time scales and which we characterize as radiation belt extinction. The intense March 2013 and March 2015 storms both show such fast extinction, with a rapid recovery, while the September 2014 storm shows fast extinction but no recovery for around 2 weeks. By contrast, themore » moderate September 2012 storm which generated a three radiation belt morphology shows more gradual loss. Here, we compute the last closed drift shell (LCDS) for each of these four storms and show a very strong correspondence between the LCDS and the loss patterns of trapped electrons in each storm. Most significantly, the location of the LCDS closely mirrors the high time resolution losses observed in GPS flux. The fast losses occur on a time scale shorter than the Van Allen Probes orbital period, are explained by proximity to the LCDS, and progress inward, consistent with outward transport to the LCDS by fast ultralow frequency wave radial diffusion. Expressing the location of the LCDS in L*, and not model magnetopause standoff distance in units of RE, clearly reveals magnetopause shadowing as the cause of the fast loss observed by the GPS satellites.« less

On the role of last closed drift shell dynamics in driving fast losses and Van Allen radiation belt extinction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olifer, Leonid; Mann, Ian R.; Morley, Steven Karl

We present observations of very fast radiation belt loss as resolved using high time resolution electron flux data from the constellation of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The time scale of these losses is revealed to be as short as ~0.5–2 hr during intense magnetic storms, with some storms demonstrating almost total loss on these time scales and which we characterize as radiation belt extinction. The intense March 2013 and March 2015 storms both show such fast extinction, with a rapid recovery, while the September 2014 storm shows fast extinction but no recovery for around 2 weeks. By contrast, themore » moderate September 2012 storm which generated a three radiation belt morphology shows more gradual loss. Here, we compute the last closed drift shell (LCDS) for each of these four storms and show a very strong correspondence between the LCDS and the loss patterns of trapped electrons in each storm. Most significantly, the location of the LCDS closely mirrors the high time resolution losses observed in GPS flux. The fast losses occur on a time scale shorter than the Van Allen Probes orbital period, are explained by proximity to the LCDS, and progress inward, consistent with outward transport to the LCDS by fast ultralow frequency wave radial diffusion. Expressing the location of the LCDS in L*, and not model magnetopause standoff distance in units of RE, clearly reveals magnetopause shadowing as the cause of the fast loss observed by the GPS satellites.« less

The May 1967 great storm and radio disruption event: Extreme space weather and extraordinary responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D. J.; Ramsay, A. C.; Beard, E. D.; Boright, A. L.; Cade, W. B.; Hewins, I. M.; McFadden, R. H.; Denig, W. F.; Kilcommons, L. M.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2016-09-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01 and 9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high-frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently, record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. An important and long-lasting outcome of this storm was more formal Department of Defense-support for current-day space weather forecasting. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the twentieth century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the twentieth century, despite the apparent lack of large geomagnetically induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

Characterization of Convective Systems in Africa in Terms of their Vertical Structure, Electrification and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, A.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2007-05-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) are cloud systems that occur from an ensemble of thunder storms and result in a precipitation that covers a huge contiguous area. They are long-lived storm system having dimensions much larger than an individual storm. Storm systems associated with MCSs over the Africa are tracked for the period July to December 2004 and their properties at different stages of their life are investigated in terms of the vertical reflectivity profile, electrification and dynamics of clouds. The research is facilitated by remote sensing data, which include instantaneous vertical reflectivity fields derived from the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), coincident 1/2-hourly observations of long-range lightning accumulation and Global IR fields. Results show a strong indication of the magnitude and intensity of electrification of a thunderstorm with the stage of its life. More vigorous dynamic conditions with intense electrification are observed during the growing stage of the storm and more or less stable situation uniform distribution of electrification has been distributed to most of the pixels in the storm during its maturity stage and less rainfall and electrification during its decaying stage was a general observation during the period. The vertical reflectivity has been found to be strongly related to the electrification and the stage of the convective life cycle in such away that the reflectivity decrease as the storm matures and decays. A good correlation is observed between the strength of vertical profile of reflectivity, which is a proxy for the ice concentration, and lightning activity.

The CI-Flow Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

round and may be applied to all types of coastal storms , including intense cool- season extratropical cyclones (i.e., nor’easters). In addition...associated with waves, tides, storm surge, rivers, and rainfall, including interactions at the tidal/surge interface Within this project, Cl-FLOW addresses...presented for Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane Earl (20I0), and Tropical Storm Nicole (2010) for the Tar -Pamlico and Neuse River basins of North

Augmentation of Early Intensity Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

modeled storms to the measured signatures. APPROACH The deviation-angle variance technique was introduced in Pineros et al. (2008) as a procedure to...the algorithm developed in the first year of the project. The new method used best-track storm fixes as the points to compute the DAV signal. We...In the North Atlantic basin, RMSE for tropical storm category is 11 kt, hurricane categories 1-3 is 12.5 kt, category 4 is 18 kt and category 5 is

TRMM precipitation analysis of extreme storms in South America: Bias and climatological contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, K. L.; Houze, R.; Zuluaga, M. D.; Choi, S. L.; Chaplin, M.

2013-12-01

The TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite was designed both to measure spatial and temporal variation of tropical rainfall around the globe and to understand the factors controlling the precipitation. TRMM observations have led to the realization that storms just east of the Andes in southeastern South America are among the most intense deep convection in the world. For a complete perspective of the impact of intense precipitation systems on the hydrologic cycle in South America, it is necessary to assess the contribution from various forms of extreme storms to the climatological rainfall. However, recent studies have suggested that the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) algorithm significantly underestimates surface rainfall in deep convection over land. Prior to investigating the climatological behavior, this research first investigates the range of the rain bias in storms containing four different types of extreme radar echoes: deep convective cores, deep and wide convective cores, wide convective cores, and broad stratiform regions over South America. The TRMM PR algorithm exhibits bias in all four extreme echo types considered here when the algorithm rates are compared to a range of conventional Z-R relations. Storms with deep convective cores, defined as high reflectivity echo volumes that extend above 10 km in altitude, show the greatest underestimation, and the bias is unrelated to their echo top height. The bias in wide convective cores, defined as high reflectivity echo volumes that extend horizontally over 1,000 km2, relates to the echo top, indicating that storms with significant mixed phase and ice hydrometeors are similarly affected by assumptions in the TRMM PR algorithm. The subtropical region tends to have more intense precipitating systems than the tropics, but the relationship between the TRMM PR rain bias and storm type is the same regardless of the climatological regime. The most extreme storms are typically not collocated with regions of high climatological precipitation. A quantitative approach that accounts for the previously described bias using TRMM PR data is employed to investigate the role of the most extreme precipitating systems on the hydrological cycle in South America. These data are first used to investigate the relative contribution of precipitation from the TRMM-identified echo cores to each separate storm in which the convective cores are embedded. The second part of the study assesses how much of the climatological rainfall in South America is accounted for by storms containing deep convective, wide convective, and broad stratiform echo components. Systems containing these echoes produce very different hydrologic responses. From a hydrologic and climatological viewpoint, this empirical knowledge is critical, as the type of runoff and flooding that may occur depends on the specific character of the convective storm and has broad implications for the hydrological cycle in this region.

Precipitation in Santa Barbara, CA on varying timescales and the relationships with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, S. M.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.

2013-12-01

This study aimed to understand the patterns and variations of extreme precipitation events that occur in Santa Barbara County and determine the relationships with various phenomena that affect the region. Santa Barbara, CA is an area with complex topography that is disposed to numerous hazard events including landslides and flooding, particularly during the region's rainy season (Nov.-Apr.). These incidents are especially frequent in the seasons after fire-events, another hazard common to the region. In addition, Santa Barbara is affected by several tropical phenomena that influence precipitation on varying timescales including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). It is well known that ENSO and the MJO influence storms that occur in southern California through processes such as the modulation of the upper level jet and the low level moisture flux. ARs have been revealed to be responsible for the movement of large quantities of water vapor from tropical areas to the midlatitudes and have been linked to high-intensity storms throughout the western coast of North America. We examined rainy season (Nov.-Apr.) precipitation within Santa Barbara County using hourly rainfall data spanning approximately forty years (~1971-2010) from seven, local, rain gauge stations. The distributions as well as totals of precipitation on varying timescales (hourly, daily, seasonal, and yearly) were defined for specified intensities of rainfall based upon the 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Persistence, expressed as the number of consecutive hours (or days) including intense precipitation defined according to the percentiles, was investigated on the hourly and daily timescales. In addition, specified storm episodes identified in this study were examined with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission in order to assess the spatial features of high-intensity storms. Results from this analysis will be used in future research to investigate the characteristics of mesoscale convective systems that occur within the region. We demonstrate that low-intensity events (i.e. measurements categorized at or below the 75th percentile in terms of intensity) primarily comprise a collection of many single, short-duration precipitation events. On the other hand, events classified at or above the 90th percentile were often observed during long-duration storm episodes. This indicates that high-intensity precipitation is likely to be a component of a large storm and is unlikely to occur as a single, unaccompanied event, whereas low-intensity events may occur with or without other accompanying events. The long-term trends and patterns of precipitation were also compared with records of ENSO, the MJO, and ARs. Additionally, we show that the topography of region is an important geographic feature that affects both the intensity as well as the duration of extreme precipitation events. This research is supposed to contribute to the mitigation of hazardous events that affect Santa Barbara by contributing to the knowledge and predictability of extreme precipitation events for the region.

Floodplain rehabilitation as a hedge against hydroclimatic uncertainty in a migration corridor of threatened steelhead.

PubMed

Boughton, David A; Pike, Andrew S

2013-12-01

A strategy for recovering endangered species during climate change is to restore ecosystem processes that moderate effects of climate shifts. In mid-latitudes, storm patterns may shift their intensity, duration, and frequency. These shifts threaten flooding in human communities and reduce migration windows (conditions suitable for migration after a storm) for fish. Rehabilitation of historic floodplains can in principle reduce these threats via transient storage of storm water, but no one has quantified the benefit of floodplain rehabilitation for migrating fish, a widespread biota with conservation and economic value. We used simple models to quantify migration opportunity for a threatened migratory fish, steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), in an episodic rain-fed river system, the Pajaro River in central California. We combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. Generally, migration opportunities were insensitive to warming, weakly sensitive to duration or intensity of storms, and proportionately sensitive to frequency of storms. The rehabilitation strategy expanded migration windows by 16-28% regardless of climate outcomes. Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. Rehabilitación de Planicies Inundables como Cerco contra la Incertidumbre Hidroclimática en un Corredor Migratorio de Oncorhynchus mykiss, Especie Amenazada. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Inclined Zenith Aurora over Kyoto on 17 September 1770: Graphical Evidence of Extreme Magnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, Ryuho; Iwahashi, Kiyomi

2017-10-01

Red auroras were observed in Japan during an extreme magnetic storm that occurred on 17 September 1770. We show new evidence that the red aurora extended toward the zenith of Kyoto around midnight. The basic appearance of the historical painting of the red aurora is geometrically reproduced based on the inclination of the local magnetic field and a detailed description in a newly discovered diary. The presence of the inclined zenith aurora over Kyoto suggests that the intensity of the September 1770 magnetic storm is comparable to, or slightly larger than that of the September 1859 Carrington storm.

Storm and flood of July 31-August 1, 1976, in the Big Thompson River and Cache la Poudre River basins, Larimer and Weld Counties, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCain, Jerald F.; Shroba, R.R.

1979-01-01

PART A: Devastating flash floods swept through the canyon section of Larimer County in north-central Colorado during the night of July 31-August I, 1976, causing 139 deaths, 5 missing persons, and more than $35 million in total damages. The brunt of the storms occurred over the Big Thompson River basin between Drake and Estes Park with rainfall amounts as much as 12 inches being reported during the storm period. In the Cache la Poudre River basin to the north, a rainfall amount of 10 inches was reported for one locality while 6 inches fell over a widespread area near the central part of the basin. The storms developed when strong low-level easterly winds to the rear of a polar front pushed a moist, conditionally unstable airmass upslope into the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Orographic uplift released the convective instability, and light south-southeasterly winds at middle and upper levels allowed the storm complex to remain nearly stationary over the foothills for several hours. Minimal entrainment of relatively moist air at middle and upper levels, very low cloud bases, and a slightly tilted updraft structure contributed to a high precipitation efficiency. Intense rainfall began soon after 1900 MDT (Mountain Daylight Time) in the Big Thompson River and the North Fork Cache la Poudre River basins. A cumulative rainfall curve developed for Glen Comfort from radar data indicates that 7.5 inches of rain fell during the period 1930-2040 MDT on July 31. In the central part of the storm area west of Fort Collins, the heaviest rainfall began about 2200 MDT on July 31 and continued until 0100 MDT on August 1. Peak discharges were extremely large on many streams in the storm area-exceeding previously recorded maximum discharges at several locations. The peak discharge of the Big Thompson River at the gaging station at the canyon mouth, near Drake was 31,200 cubic feet per second or more than four times the previous maximum discharge of 7,600 cubic feet per second at the site during 88 years of flood history. At the gaging station on the North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake, the peak discharge on July 31 was 8,710 cubic feet per second as compared to the previous maximum discharge during 29 years of record of 1,290 cubic feet per second. Peak discharges for three small tributaries near the area of heaviest rainfall northeast of Estes Park exceeded previously recorded maximum discharges for basins of less than 4 square miles in Colorado. Stream velocities were rapid along the tributaries near the storm center and on the Big Thompson River in the canyon section, with average velocities of 20-25 feet per second being common. The flood crest on the Big Thompson River moved through the 7.7-mile reach between Drake and the canyon mouth in about 30 minutes for an average travel rate of 15 miles per hour, or about 23 feet per second. The peak discharge of the flood on the Big Thompson River at the canyon mouth exceeded the 100-year flood discharge for the site by a ratio of 1.8. Upstream in the Big Thompson River basin, the flood was even more rare being 3.8 times the estimated 100-year flood discharge at the site on the Big Thompson River just upstream from Drake. In the Cache la Poudre River basin, recurrence intervals were computed to be 100 years for the flood on Deadman Creek and 16 years for Rist Canyon and the Cache la Poudre River at the canyon mouth near Fort Collins. Although the rainfall and flood discharges were unusually large, they are not unprecedented for some areas along the eastern foothills and plains of Colorado. The May 1935 and June 1965 floods on some streams along the eastern plains greatly exceeded the 1976 flood peaks in the storm area. Prior floods on several other streams in the foothills have approximately equaled the 1976 peak discharges. PART B: Intense rainfall from the Big Thompson thunderstorm complex on the evening of July 31,1976, and the ensuing floods that evening and the fol

Application of wind-profiling radar data to the analysis of dust weather in the Taklimakan Desert.

PubMed

Wang, Minzhong; Wei, Wenshou; Ruan, Zheng; He, Qing; Ge, Runsheng

2013-06-01

The Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration carried out an atmospheric scientific experiment to detect dust weather using a wind-profiling radar in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert in April 2010. Based on the wind-profiling data obtained from this experiment, this paper seeks to (a) analyze the characteristics of the horizontal wind field and vertical velocity of a breaking dust weather in a desert hinterland; (b) calculate and give the radar echo intensity and vertical distribution of a dust storm, blowing sand, and floating dust weather; and (c) discuss the atmosphere dust counts/concentration derived from the wind-profiling radar data. Studies show that: (a) A wind-profiling radar is an upper-air atmospheric remote sensing system that effectively detects and monitors dust. It captures the beginning and ending of a dust weather process as well as monitors the sand and dust being transported in the air in terms of height, thickness, and vertical intensity. (b) The echo intensity of a blowing sand and dust storm weather episode in Taklimakan is about -1~10 dBZ while that of floating dust -1~-15 dBZ, indicating that the dust echo intensity is significantly weaker than that of precipitation but stronger than that of clear air. (c) The vertical shear of horizontal wind and the maintenance of low-level east wind are usually dynamic factors causing a dust weather process in Taklimakan. The moment that the low-level horizontal wind field finds a shear over time, it often coincides with the onset of a sand blowing and dust storm weather process. (d) When a blowing sand or dust storm weather event occurs, the atmospheric vertical velocity tends to be of upward motion. This vertical upward movement of the atmosphere supported with a fast horizontal wind and a dry underlying surface carries dust particles from the ground up to the air to form blown sand or a dust storm.

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven J.

1999-01-01

A comprehensive analysis has been conducted of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring within a landfalling tropical cyclone that produced an outbreak of strong and damaging tornadoes. Radar data indicate that 12 convective cells were responsible for 29 tornadoes, several of which received an F3 intensity rating, in the southeastern United States on 16 August 1994 within the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl. Of these 12 tornadic storms, the most active cell produced 315 flashes over a 5.5 hour period, while the other storms were less active. Three tornadic storms failed to produce any CG lightning at all. In general, the tornadic storms were more active electrically than other non-tornadic cells within Beryl's remnants, although the flash rates were rather modest by comparison with significant midlatitude severe storm events. Very few positive polarity flashes were found in the Beryl outbreak. During some of the stronger tornadoes, CG flash rates in the parent storms showed sharp transient decreases. Doppler radar data suggest the stronger tornadic storms were small supercells, and the lightning data indicate these storms exhibited lightning characteristics similar to those found in heavy-precipitation supercell storms.

Contrasting patterns of nutrient dynamics during different storm events in a semi-arid catchment of northern China.

PubMed

Du, Xinzhong; Li, Xuyong; Hao, Shaonan; Wang, Huiliang; Shen, Xiao

2014-01-01

Nutrient discharge during storm events is a critical pathway for nutrient export in semi-arid catchments. We investigated nutrient dynamics during three summer storms characterized by different rainfall magnitude in 2012 in a semi-arid catchment of northern China. The results showed that, in response to storm events, nutrient dynamics displayed big variation in temporal trends of nutrient concentration and in nutrient concentration-flow discharge relationships. Nutrient concentrations had broader fluctuations during an extreme storm than during lesser storms, whereas the concentration ranges of the a moderate storm were no broader than those of a smaller one. The different concentration fluctuations were caused by storm magnitude and intensity coupled with the antecedent rainfall amount and cumulative nutrients. Correlation coefficients between nutrient concentrations and flow discharge varied from positive to negative for the three different events. There were no consistent hysteresis effects for the three different events, and no hysteresis effects were observed for any of the variables during the moderate storm (E2). Our findings provide useful information for better understanding nutrient loss mechanisms during storm events in semi-arid areas of a monsoon climate region.

Solar flares associated coronal mass ejection accompanied with DH type II radio burst in relation with interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic storms and cosmic ray intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Harish; Bhatt, Beena

2018-04-01

In this paper, we have selected 114 flare-CME events accompanied with Deca-hectometric (DH) type II radio burst chosen from 1996 to 2008 (i.e., solar cycle 23). Statistical analyses are performed to examine the relationship of flare-CME events accompanied with DH type II radio burst with Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF), Geomagnetic storms (GSs) and Cosmic Ray Intensity (CRI). The collected sample events are divided into two groups. In the first group, we considered 43 events which lie under the CME span and the second group consists of 71 events which are outside the CME span. Our analysis indicates that flare-CME accompanied with DH type II radio burst is inconsistent with CSHKP flare-CME model. We apply the Chree analysis by the superposed epoch method to both set of data to find the geo-effectiveness. We observed different fluctuations in IMF for arising and decay phase of solar cycle in both the cases. Maximum decrease in Dst during arising and decay phase of solar cycle is different for both the cases. It is noted that when flare lie outside the CME span CRI shows comparatively more variation than the flare lie under the CME span. Furthermore, we found that flare lying under the CME span is more geo effective than the flare outside of CME span. We noticed that the time leg between IMF Peak value and GSs, IMF and CRI is on average one day for both the cases. Also, the time leg between CRI and GSs is on average 0 to 1 day for both the cases. In case flare lie under the CME span we observed high correlation (0.64) between CRI and Dst whereas when flare lie outside the CME span a weak correlation (0.47) exists. Thus, flare position with respect to CME span play a key role for geo-effectiveness of CME.

Interplanetary radio storms. 2: Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougeret, J. L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

1982-01-01

Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetry medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the Sun. Usng a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the central meridian passage of the storm. The comparison with average in situ density measurements compiled from the HELIOS 1-2 observations favors type III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

Ice damage in loblolly pine: understanding the factors that influence susceptibility

Treesearch

Doug P. Aubrey; Mark D. Coleman; David R. Coyle

2007-01-01

Winter ice storms frequently occur in the southeastern United States and can severely damage softwood plantations. In January 2004, a severe storm deposited approximately 2 cm of ice on an intensively managed 4-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in South Carolina. Existing irrigation and fertilization treatments presented an...

Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Trier, Stanley B.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn P.

2017-12-01

Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of 100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years1, causing fatalities and economic losses2. However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future3. Here, a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs4 is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5). A storm-tracking algorithm6 indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15-40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40 km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.

First flush of storm runoff pollution from an urban catchment in China.

PubMed

Li, Li-Qing; Yin, Cheng-Qing; He, Qing-Ci; Kong, Ling-Li

2007-01-01

Storm runoff pollution process was investigated in an urban catchment with an area of 1.3 km2 in Wuhan City of China. The results indicate that the pollutant concentration peaks preceded the flow peaks in all of 8 monitored storm events. The intervals between pollution peak and flow peak were shorter in the rain events with higher intensity in the initial period than those with lower intensity. The fractions of pollution load transported by the first 30% of runoff volume (FF30) were 52.2%-72.1% for total suspended solids (TSS), 53.0%-65.3% for chemical oxygen demand (COD), 40.4%-50.6% for total nitrogen (TN), and 45.8%-63.2% for total phosphorus (TP), respectively. Runoff pollution was positively related to non-raining days before the rainfall. Intercepting the first 30% of runoff volume can remove 62.4% of TSS load, 59.4% of COD load, 46.8% of TN load, and 54.1% of TP load, respectively, according to all the storm events. It is suggested that controlling the first flush is a critical measure in reduction of urban stormwater pollution.

Intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nott, Jonathan F.

2003-04-01

Prediction of future tropical cyclone climate scenarios requires identification of quasi-periodicities at a variety of temporal scales. Extension of records to identify trends at century and millennial scales is important, but to date the emerging field of paleotempestology has been hindered by the lack of a suitable methodology to discern the intensity of prehistoric storms. Here a technique to quantify the central pressure of prehistoric tropical cyclones is presented in detail and demonstrated for the tropical southwest Pacific region. The importance of extending records to century time scales is highlighted for northeast Australia, where a virtual absence of category 5 cyclones during the 20th century stands in contrast to an active period of severe cyclogenesis during the previous century. Several land crossing storms during the 19th century achieved central pressures lower than that ever recorded historically and close to the theoretical thermodynamic limit of storms for the region. This technique can be applied to all tropical and subtropical regions globally and will assist in obtaining more realistic predictions for future storm scenarios with implications for insurance premiums, urban and infrastructural design, and emergency planning.

Influence of sea-ice coverage, sea-surface temperatures and latent heat release on baroclinic instability of an Arctic cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, A.; Zhang, X.

2012-12-01

Arctic sea ice has shrunk drastically and Arctic storm activity has intensified over last decades. To improve understanding air-ice-sea interactions in the context of storm activity, we conducted a modeling study of a selected intense storm that invaded and was persistent for prolonged time in the central Arctic Ocean during March 16-22, 2011. A series of control and sensitivity simulations were carried out by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which was configured using two nested domains at a resolution of 10 km for the inner domain and 30 km for the outer domain. The control simulations well captured the cyclone genesis, regeneration, track and intensity. Diagnostic analysis and a comparison between the and sensitivity experiments suggest that the strong intensity, regeneration, and long-lasting duration of the cyclone were driven by unusually sustained baroclinic instability, which was resulted due to (1) anomalously reduced sea-ice coverage and strong advection of heat, moisture and vorticity from the North Atlantic; and (2) a release of latent heat due to condensation.

Reclaimed mineland curve number response to temporal distribution of rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warner, R.C.; Agouridis, C.T.; Vingralek, P.T.; Fogle, A.W.

2010-01-01

The curve number (CN) method is a common technique to estimate runoff volume, and it is widely used in coal mining operations such as those in the Appalachian region of Kentucky. However, very little CN data are available for watersheds disturbed by surface mining and then reclaimed using traditional techniques. Furthermore, as the CN method does not readily account for variations in infiltration rates due to varying rainfall distributions, the selection of a single CN value to encompass all temporal rainfall distributions could lead engineers to substantially under- or over-size water detention structures used in mining operations or other land uses such as development. Using rainfall and runoff data from a surface coal mine located in the Cumberland Plateau of eastern Kentucky, CNs were computed for conventionally reclaimed lands. The effects of temporal rainfall distributions on CNs was also examined by classifying storms as intense, steady, multi-interval intense, or multi-interval steady. Results indicate that CNs for such reclaimed lands ranged from 62 to 94 with a mean value of 85. Temporal rainfall distributions were also shown to significantly affect CN values with intense storms having significantly higher CNs than multi-interval storms. These results indicate that a period of recovery is present between rainfall bursts of a multi-interval storm that allows depressional storage and infiltration rates to rebound. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

Characteristics of magnetic clouds/magnetic-cloud-like structures during the years 1995-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. C.; Lepping, R.

Using nine years of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data we investigated the characteristics of both magnetic clouds MCs and magnetic cloud like structures MCLs during 1995-2003 A MCL structure is an event which was identified by an automatic scheme Lepping et al 2005 with the same criteria as for a MC but is not identifiable as a flux rope by using the MC Burlaga 1981 fitting model developed by Lepping et al 1990 The average occurrence rate is sim 9 5 for MCs and sim 13 6 for MCLs per year for the overall period of interest and there were 82 MCs and 122 MCLs identified during this period The characteristics of MCs and MCL structures are as follows 1 The averaged duration Dt of MCs is 21 1 hour which is 40 longer than MCLs Dt 15 hrs 2 The averaged Bz min minimum Bz found in MC MCL is -10 2 nT for MCs and -6 nT for MCLs 3 The averaged Dst min minimum Dst caused by MC MCL is -82 nT for MCs and -37 nT for MCLs 4 The average of the solar wind velocity is 453 km s for MCs and 413 km s for MCLs 5 The average of the thermal speed is 24 6 km s for MCs and 27 7 km s for MCLs 6 The average of the magnetic field intensity is 12 7 nT for MCs and 9 8 nT for MCLs and 7 The average of the solar wind density is 9 4 cm -3 for MCs and 6 3 cm -3 for MCLs The longer duration more intense magnetic field and higher solar wind speed and denisty of MCs compared to those of the MCLs might be the major reason for generally causing geomagnetic storms with higher

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf.

PubMed

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-07-28

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.

Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Kidder, S. Q.

1980-01-01

Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

2003-01-01

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury from boats and other human causes and control the loss of foraging habitat to coastal development.

Latitudinal Dependence of the Energy Input into the Mesosphere by High Energy Electrons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, C. U.; Nikutowski, B.; Ranta, H.

1984-01-01

Night-time ionspheric absorption measurements give the possibility to study the precipitation of high energy electrons into the mesosphere during and after magnetospheric storms. The uniform Finnish riometer network was used together with measurements from Kuhlungsborn and Collm (GDR) to investigate the night-time absorption as a function of latitude (L=6.5 to 2.5) and storm-time for seven storms. The common trends visible in all these events are summarized in a schematic average picture, showing the distribution of increased ionospheric absorption as a function of latitude (L value) and storm-time.

Movie-maps of low-latitude magnetic storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Gannon, Jennifer L.

2010-06-01

We present 29 movie-maps of low-latitude horizontal-intensity magnetic disturbance for the years 1999-2006: 28 recording magnetic storms and 1 magnetically quiescent period. The movie-maps are derived from magnetic vector time series data collected at up to 25 ground-based observatories. Using a technique similar to that used in the calculation of Dst, a quiet time baseline is subtracted from the time series from each observatory. The remaining disturbance time series are shown in a polar coordinate system that accommodates both Earth rotation and the universal time dependence of magnetospheric disturbance. Each magnetic storm recorded in the movie-maps is different. While some standard interpretations about the storm time equatorial ring current appear to apply to certain moments and certain phases of some storms, the movie-maps also show substantial variety in the local time distribution of low-latitude magnetic disturbance, especially during storm commencements and storm main phases. All movie-maps are available at the U.S. Geological Survey Geomagnetism Program Web site (http://geomag.usgs.gov).

Extreme Storms. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kossin, J. P.; Hall, T.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; Trapp, R. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

2018-05-01

Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

An Investigation of Interplanetary Structures for Solar Cycles 23 and 24 and their Space Weather Consequences.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, M. S.; Jules, A.; Marchese, P.; Damas, M. C.

2017-12-01

It is crucial to study space weather because severe interplanetary conditions can cause geomagnetic storms that may damage both space- and ground-based technological systems such as satellites, communication systems, and power grids. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are the primary drivers of geomagnetic storms. As they travel through interplanetary space and reach geospace, their spatial structures change which can result in various geomagnetic effects. Therefore, studying these drivers and their structures is essential in order to better understand and mitigate their impact on technological systems, as well as to forecast geomagnetic storms. In this study, over 150 storms were cross-checked for both solar cycles (SC) 23 and 24. This data has revealed the most common interplanetary structures, i.e., sheath (Sh); magnetic cloud following a shock front (sMC); sheath region and magnetic cloud (Sh/MC); and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Furthermore, plasma parameters as well as variation in the intensity and duration of storms resulting from different interplanetary structures are studied for their effect on geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), as well as for their effect on power grids. Although preliminary results for SC 23 indicate that storm intensity may play a dominant role for GICs, duration might also be a factor, albeit smaller. Results from both SC 23 and 24 are analyzed and compared, and should lead to an enhanced understanding of space weather consequences of interplanetary structures and their possible forecasting.

Towards evaluating the intensity of convective systems by using GPS radio occultation profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Riccardo; Steiner, Andrea K.; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2015-04-01

Deep convective systems, also more casually often just called storms, are destructive weather phenomena causing every year many deaths, injuries and damages and accounting for major economic losses in several countries. The number and intensity of such phenomena increased over the last decades in some areas of the globe, including Europe. Damages are mostly caused by strong winds and heavy rain and these parameters are strongly connected to the structure of the storm. Convection over land is usually stronger and deeper than over the ocean and some convective systems, known as supercells, also develop tornadoes through processes which are still mostly unclear. The intensity forecast and monitoring of convective systems is one of the major challenges for meteorology because in-situ measurements during extreme events are too sparse or not reliable and most ongoing satellite missions do not provide suitable time/space coverage. With this study we propose a new method for detecting the convection intensity in terms of rain rate and surface wind speed by using meteorological surface measurements in combination with atmospheric profiles from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation observations, which are available in essentially all weather conditions and with global coverage. The analysis of models indicated a relationship between the cloud top altitude and the intensity of a storm. We thus use GPS radio occultation bending angle profiles for detecting the storm's cloud top altitude and we correlate this value to the rain rate and wind speed measured by meteorological station networks in two different regions, the WegenerNet climate station network (South-Eastern Styria, Austria) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site (ARM, Southern Great Plains, USA), respectively. The results show a good correlation between the cloud top altitude and the maximum rain rate in the monitored areas, while this is not found for maximum wind speed. We conclude from this initial study that for land convective systems the cloud top altitude is strongly connected to the rain intensity and that GPS radio occultation observations show encouraging potential to improve the intensity nowcasting and detection of such kind of severe weather phenomena.

[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]. [Structure of the HighIy Sheared Tropical Stom Chantal During CAMEX-4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper and low level warming regions, likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeling of vortices in sheared environments, which suggest strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is however different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Inertial Oscillation of a Vertical Rotating Draft with Application to a Supercell Storm: Video Supplement to NASA-TP-3230

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costen, Robert C.; Stock, Larry V.

1992-01-01

In this video (8 min., color, sound, VHS), animation depicts the inertial oscillation of a new mathematical model ('vertical rotating draft') for spinning up a single supercell storm. The oscillation consists of a long quiescent phase when the draft is large in diameter and rotates anticyclonically and a short intense phase when the draft is small and cyclonic. During the intense phase, the rotating draft resembles a supercell. The physical basis for the oscillation is depicted by tracking air parcels in the draft as they move along inertial circles (projected on a horizontal plane), where the horizontal pressure gradient is zero and the Coriolis force balances the centrifugal force. A side view of the oscillation shows that contraction and expansion are linked, respectively, to buoyantly driven compressible downdraft and updraft. An aerial view tracks the draft as it moves above the surface of the Earth and turns to the right during the intense phase. Radar echoes from a supercell storm are superimposed for comparison. The data appear to support only the intense phase. A critical experiment would measure the predominantly downward flow that theoretically occurs before the right turn in a supercell track and causes contraction and spin-up.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

An estimation of the condensation rates in three severe storm systems from satellite observations of the convective mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mack, R. A.; Wylie, D. P.

1982-01-01

A technique was developed for estimating the condensation rates of convective storms using satellite measurements of cirrus anvil expansion rates and radiosonde measurements of environmental water vapor. Three cases of severe convection in Oklahoma were studied and a diagnostic model was developed for integrating radiosonde data with satellite data. Two methods were used to measure the anvil expansion rates - the expansion of isotherm contours on infrared images, and the divergent motions of small brightness anomalies tracked on the visible images. The differences between the two methods were large as the storms developed, but these differences became small in the latter stage of all three storms. A comparison between the three storms indicated that the available moisture in the lowest levels greatly affected the rain rates of the storms. This was evident from both the measured rain rates of the storms and the condensation rates estimated by the model. The possibility of using this diagnostic model for estimating the intensities of convective storms also is discussed.

Precipitation data considerations for evaluating subdaily changes in rainless periods due to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying magnitudes and frequencies of rainless times between storms (TBS), or storm occurrence, is required for generating continuous sequences of precipitation for modeling inputs to small watershed models for conservation studies. Two parameters characterize TBS, minimum TBS (MTBS) and averag...

Structure of Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal during CAMEX-4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, G. M.; Halverson, J.; Ritchie, E.; Simpson, Joanne; Molinari, J.; Tian, L.

2006-01-01

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse dataset including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger-scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200-hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6-km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised a mesoscale convective system (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large-scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as cell 2 during the period of the observations were extremely intense, with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions, both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper-level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper- and lower-level warming regions likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeled vortices in sheared environments, which suggest the strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is, however, different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Microwave Imager Measures Sea Surface Temperature Through Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This image was acquired over Tropical Atlantic and U.S. East Coast regions on Aug. 22 - Sept. 23, 1998. Cloud data were collected by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data were collected aboard the NASA/NASDA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite by The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). TMI is the first satellite microwave sensor capable of accurately measuring sea surface temperature through clouds, as shown in this scene. For years scientists have known there is a strong correlation between sea surface temperature and the intensity of hurricanes. But one of the major stumbling blocks for forecasters has been the precise measurement of those temperatures when a storm begins to form. In this scene, clouds have been made translucent to allow an unobstructed view of the surface. Notice Hurricane Bonnie approaching the Carolina Coast (upper left) and Hurricane Danielle following roughly in its path (lower right). The ocean surface has been falsely colored to show a map of water temperature--dark blues are around 75oF, light blues are about 80oF, greens are about 85oF, and yellows are roughly 90oF. A hurricane gathers energy from warm waters found at tropical latitudes. In this image we see Hurricane Bonnie cross the Atlantic, leaving a cooler trail of water in its wake. As Hurricane Danielle followed in Bonnie's path, the wind speed of the second storm dropped markedly, as available energy to fuel the storm dropped off. But when Danielle left Bonnie's wake, wind speeds increased due to temperature increases in surface water around the storm. As a hurricane churns up the ocean, it's central vortex draws surface heat and water into the storm. That suction at the surface causes an upwelling of deep water. At depth, tropical ocean waters are significantly colder than water found near the surface. As they're pulled up to meet the storm, those colder waters essentially leave a footprint in the storm's wake which might last as long as two weeks. Forecasters can quantify the difference in surface temperatures between this footprint and the surrounding temperatures and use that information to better predict storm intensity. If another storm intersects with this cold water trail, it is likely to lose significant strength due to the fact that the colder water does not contain as much potential energy as warm water. TRMM Fact Sheet Predicting Hurricane Intensity Far from Land Remote Sensing Systems Image courtesy TRMM Project, Remote Sensing Systems, and Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Possibility Of Generating Significant Storm Surge On The Western Seaboard Of Metro Manila, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.; Tablazon, J. P.; Dasallas, L. L.; Goting, P. G.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

2016-12-01

The Philippines, located in the Northwestern Pacific Typhoon gateway to Asia, is considered one of the most susceptible to tropical cyclone related hazards. One of the most disastrous effects of tropical cyclones is storm surge. With Metro Manila being a coastal area and the most populous region in the country, with approximately 12.8 million people residing in it, it is of great interest to determine the possibility of generating significant level of storm surge in the country's capital. The necessity to determine the storm surge susceptibility was brought upon by the effect of Typhoon Haiyan on eastern Visayas in 2013, where more than 6,000 people died and resulted to about 2.86 billion dollars' worth of damages. To achieve the objectives, the actual tracks and wind speed of historical typhoon (JMA data since 1951) was mapped for the Philippines. The simulated wind speed map shows that the maximum winds are mostly experienced on the eastern side of the country; with a considerable decrease in wind intensity as the typhoon reaches the western seaboard due to land surface. The Haiyan-strength wind speed is then applied to the actual historical typhoon tracks to determine the hypothetical values of wind speed as a typhoon with Haiyan intensity reached Metro Manila. Results show that, if a typhoon with a Haiyan-like intensity is to traverse tracks like those of Rita 1978, Collen 1992, Sybil 1995, Bebinca 2000 and Xangsane 2000, there is a huge possibility of generating storm surge height of 3.9 to 5.6 m in the western seaboard of Metro Manila, even after considering the diminishing effect of surface friction.

Total Lightning Characteristics with Respect to Radar-Derived Mesocyclone Strength

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stough, Sarah M.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.

2015-01-01

Recent work investigating the microphysical and kinematic relationship between a storm's updraft, its total lightning production, and manifestations of severe weather has resulted in development of tools for improved nowcasting of storm intensity. The total lightning jump algorithm, which identifies rapid increases in total lightning flash rate that often precede severe events, has shown particular potential to benefit warning operations. Maximizing this capability of total lightning and its operational implementation via the lightning jump may best be done through its fusion with radar and radar-derived intensity metrics. Identification of a mesocyclone, or quasi-steady rotating updraft, in Doppler velocity is the predominant radar-inferred early indicator of severe potential in a convective storm. Fused lightning-radar tools that capitalize on the most robust intensity indicators would allow enhanced situational awareness for increased warning confidence. A foundational step toward such tools comes from a better understanding of the updraft-centric relationship between intensification of total lightning production and mesocyclone development and strength. The work presented here utilizes a sample of supercell case studies representing a spectrum of severity. These storms are analyzed with respect to total lightning flash rate and the lightning jump alongside mesocyclone strength derived objectively from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm (MDA) and maximum azimuthal shear through a layer. Early results indicate that temporal similarities exist in the trends between total lightning flash rate and low- to mid-level rotation in supercells. Other characteristics such as polarimetric signatures of rotation, flash size, and cloud-to-ground flash ratio are explored for added insight into the significance of these trends with respect to the updraft and related processes of severe weather production.

Subtropical Storm Andrea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

The circling clouds of an intense low-pressure system sat off the southeast coast of the United States on May 8, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image. By the following morning, the storm developed enough to be classified as a subtropical storm, a storm that forms outside of the tropics, but has many of the characteristics--hurricane-force winds, driving rains, low pressure, and sometimes an eye--of a tropical storm. Although it arrived several weeks shy of the official start of the hurricane season (June 1), Subtropical Storm Andrea became the first named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm has the circular shape of a tropical cyclone in this image, but lacks the tight organization seen in more powerful storms. By May 9, the storm's winds reached 75 kilometers per hour (45 miles per hour), and the storm was not predicted to get any stronger, said the National Hurricane Center. Though Subtropical Storm Andrea was expected to remain offshore, its strong winds and high waves pummeled coastal states, prompting a tropical storm watch. The winds fueled wild fires (marked with red boxes) in Georgia and Florida. The wind-driven flames generated thick plumes of smoke that concentrated in a gray-brown mass over Tampa Bay, Florida. Unfortunately for Georgia and Florida, which are experiencing moderate to severe drought, Subtropical Storm Andrea was not predicted to bring significant rain to the region right away, according to reports on the Washington Post Website.

A point-infiltration model for estimating runoff from rainfall on small basins in semiarid areas of Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rankl, James G.

1990-01-01

A physically based point-infiltration model was developed for computing infiltration of rainfall into soils and the resulting runoff from small basins in Wyoming. The user describes a 'design storm' in terms of average rainfall intensity and storm duration. Information required to compute runoff for the design storm by using the model include (1) soil type and description, and (2) two infiltration parameters and a surface-retention storage parameter. Parameter values are tabulated in the report. Rainfall and runoff data for three ephemeral-stream basins that contain only one type of soil were used to develop the model. Two assumptions were necessary: antecedent soil moisture is some long-term average, and storm rainfall is uniform in both time and space. The infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters were determined for the soil of each basin. Observed rainstorm and runoff data were used to develop a separation curve, or incipient-runoff curve, which distinguishes between runoff and nonrunoff rainfall data. The position of this curve defines the infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters. A procedure for applying the model to basins that contain more than one type of soil was developed using data from 7 of the 10 study basins. For these multiple-soil basins, the incipient-runoff curve defines the infiltration and retention-storage parameters for the soil having the highest runoff potential. Parameters were defined by ranking the soils according to their relative permeabilities and optimizing the position of the incipient-runoff curve by using measured runoff as a control for the fit. Analyses of runoff from multiple-soil basins indicate that the effective contributing area of runoff is less than the drainage area of the basin. In this study, the effective drainage area ranged from 41.6 to 71.1 percent of the total drainage area. Information on effective drainage area is useful in evaluating drainage area as an independent variable in statistical analyses of hydrologic data, such as annual peak frequency distributions and sediment yield.A comparison was made of the sum of the simulated runoff and the sum of the measured runoff for all available records of runoff-producing storms in the 10 study basins. The sums of the simulated runoff ranged from 12.0 percent less than to 23.4 percent more than the sums of the measured runoff. A measure of the standard error of estimate was computed for each data set. These values ranged from 20 to 70 percent of the mean value of the measured runoff. Rainfall-simulator infiltrometer tests were made in two small basins. The amount of water uptake measured by the test in Dugout Creek tributary basin averaged about three times greater than the amount of water uptake computed from rainfall and runoff data. Therefore, infiltrometer data were not used to determine infiltration rates for this study.

Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, U. S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark R.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

1997-01-01

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Major geomagnetic storm due to solar activity (2006-2013).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Bhupendra Kumar

Major geomagnetic storm due to solar activity (2006-2013). Bhupendra Kumar Tiwari Department of Physics, A.P.S.University, Rewa(M.P.) Email: - btiwtari70@yahoo.com mobile 09424981974 Abstract- The geospace environment is dominated by disturbances created by the sun, it is observed that coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare events are the causal link to solar activity that produces geomagnetic storm (GMS).CMEs are large scale magneto-plasma structures that erupt from the sun and propagate through the interplanetary medium with speeds ranging from only a few km/s to as large as 4000 km/s. When the interplanetary magnetic field associated with CMEs impinges upon the earth’s magnetosphere and reconnect occur geomagnetic storm. Based on the observation from SOHO/LASCO spacecraft for solar activity and WDC for geomagnetism Kyoto for geomagnetic storm events are characterized by the disturbance storm time (Dst) index during the period 2006-2013. We consider here only intense geomagnetic storm Dst <-100nT, are 12 during 2006-2013.Geomagnetic storm with maximum Dst< -155nT occurred on Dec15, 2006 associated with halo CME with Kp-index 8+ and also verify that halo CME is the main cause to produce large geomagnetic storms.

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven; Cammarata, Michael

2003-01-01

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

Thyroid Emergencies

PubMed Central

Leung, Angela M

2017-01-01

Myxedema coma and thyroid storm are thyroid emergencies associated with increased mortality. Prompt recognition of these states—which represent the severe, life-threatening conditions of extremely reduced or elevated circulating thyroid hormone concentrations, respectively—is necessary to initiate treatment. Management of myxedema coma and thyroid storm requires both medical and supportive therapies and should be treated in an intensive care unit setting. PMID:27598067

Characteristics of Landslide Size Distribution in Response to Different Rainfall Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Lan, H.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

There have long been controversies on the characteristics of landslide size distribution in response to different rainfall scenarios. For inspecting the characteristics, we have collected a large amount of data, including shallow landslide inventory with landslide areas and landslide occurrence times recorded, and a longtime daily rainfall series fully covering all the landslide occurrences. Three indexes were adopted to quantitatively describe the characteristics of landslide-related rainfall events, which are rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, and the number of rainy days. The first index, rainfall duration, is derived from the exceptional character of a landslide-related rainfall event, which can be explained in terms of the recurrence interval or return period, according to the extreme value theory. The second index, rainfall intensity, is the average rainfall in this duration. The third index is the number of rainy days in this duration. These three indexes were normalized using the standard score method to ensure that they are in the same order of magnitude. Based on these three indexes, landslide-related rainfall events were categorized by a k-means method into four scenarios: moderate rainfall, storm, long-duration rainfall, and long-duration intermittent rainfall. Then, landslides were in turn categorized into four groups according to the scenarios of rainfall events related to them. Inverse-gamma distribution was applied to characterize the area distributions of the four different landslide groups. A tail index and a rollover of the landslide size distribution can be obtained according to the parameters of the distribution. Characteristics of landslide size distribution show that the rollovers of the size distributions of landslides related to storm and long-duration rainfall are larger than those of landslides in the other two groups. It may indicate that the location of rollover may shift right with the increase of rainfall intensity and the extension of rainfall duration. In addition, higher rainfall intensities are prone to trigger larger rainfall-induced landslides since the tail index of landslide area distribution are smaller for higher rainfall intensities, which indicate higher probabilities of large landslides.

F2 region response to geomagnetic disturbances across Indian latitudes: O(1S) dayglow emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhayaya, A. K.; Gupta, Sumedha; Brahmanandam, P. S.

2016-03-01

The morphology of ionospheric storms has been investigated across equatorial and low latitudes of Indian region. The deviation in F2 region characteristic parameters (foF2 and h'F) along with modeled green line dayglow emission intensities is examined at equatorial station Thiruvananthapuram (8.5°N, 76.8°E, 0.63°S geomagnetic latitude) and low-latitude station Delhi (28.6°N, 77.2°E,19.2°N geomagnetic latitude) during five geomagnetic storm events. Both positive and negative phases have been noticed in this study. The positive storm phase over equatorial station is found to be more frequent, while the drop in ionization in most of the cases was observed at low-latitude station. It is concluded that the reaction as seen at different ionospheric stations may be quite different during the same storm depending on both the geographic and geomagnetic coordinates of the station, storm intensity, and the storm onset time. Modulation in the F2 layer critical frequency at low and equatorial stations during geomagnetic disturbance of 20-23 November 2003 was caused by the storm-induced changes in O/N2. It is also found that International Reference Ionosphere 2012 model predicts the F2 layer characteristic (foF2 and h'F) parameters at both the low and equatorial stations during disturbed days quite reasonably. A simulative approach in GLOW model developed by Solomon is further used to estimate the changes in the volume emission rate of green line dayglow emission under quiet and strong geomagnetic conditions. It is found that the O(1S) dayglow thermospheric emission peak responds to varying geomagnetic conditions.

Doppler Radar and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Cammarata, Michael; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 12 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Time-height analyses of the three strongest supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and evolution. These Beryl mini-supercells were comparable in radar-observed intensity but much more persistent than other tropical cyclone-spawned tornadic cells documented thus far with Doppler radars. Cloud-to-ground lightning data are also examined for all the tornadic cells in this severe swarm-type tornado outbreak. These data show many of the characteristics of previously reported heavy-precipitation supercells. Lightning rates were weak to moderate, even in the more intense supercells, and in all the storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. No lightning at all was detected in some of the single-tornado storms. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that lightning rates can decrease during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. These findings suggest possible benefits from implementation of observing systems capable of monitoring intracloud as well as cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Simulation of Tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler Weather Radar and WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M. K.; Chowdhury, M.; Das, S.

2013-12-01

A tornado accompanied with thunderstorm, rainfall and hailstorm affected Brahmanbaria of Bangladesh in the afternoon of 22 March 2013. The tornadic storms are studied based on field survey, ground and radar observations. Low level moisture influx by southerly flow from the Bay of Bengal coupled with upper level westerly jet stream causing intense instability and shear in the wind fields triggered a series of storms for the day. The exact time and locations of the storms are investigated by using the Agartala and Cox's Bazar Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). Subsequently, the storms are simulated by using the WRF-ARW model at 1 km horizontal resolution based on 6 hourly analyses and boundary conditions of NCEP-FNL. Among the typical characteristics of the storms, the CAPE, surface wind speed, flow patterns, T-Φ gram, rainfall, sea level pressure, vorticity and vertical velocity are studied. Results show that while there are differences of 2-3 hours between the observed and simulated time of the storms, the distances between observed and simulated locations of the storms are several tens of kilometers. The maximum CAPE was generally above 2400 J kg-1 in the case. The maximum intensity of surface wind speed simulated by the model was only 38 m sec-1. This seems to be underestimated. The highest vertical velocity (updraft) simulated by the model was 250 m sec-1 around 800-950 hPa. The updraft reached up to 150 hPa. It seems that the funnel vortex reached the ground, and might have passed some places a few meters above the surface. According to the Fujita Pearson scale, this tornado can be classified as F-2 with estimated wind speed of 50-70 ms-1. Keywords: Tornado, DWR, NCEP-FNL, T-Φ gram, CAPE.

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

The Impact of Dry Midlevel Air on Hurricane Intensity in Idealized Simulations with No Mean Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Sippel, Jason A.; Nolan, David S.

2012-01-01

This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (approximately 3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward- moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Ring current electron dynamics during geomagnetic storms based on the Van Allen Probes measurements: Ring Current Electrons

DOE PAGES

Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Baker, D. N.; ...

2016-04-16

Based on comprehensive measurements from Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron Mass Spectrometer Ion Spectrometer, Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope, and Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment instruments on the Van Allen Probes, comparative studies of ring current electrons and ions are performed and the role of energetic electrons in the ring current dynamics is investigated. The deep injections of tens to hundreds of keV electrons and tens of keV protons into the inner magnetosphere occur frequently; after the injections the electrons decay slowly in the inner belt but protons in the low L region decay very fast. Intriguing similarities between lowermore » energy protons and higher-energy electrons are also found. The evolution of ring current electron and ion energy densities and energy content are examined in detail during two geomagnetic storms, one moderate and one intense. Here, the results show that the contribution of ring current electrons to the ring current energy content is much smaller than that of ring current ions (up to ~12% for the moderate storm and ~7% for the intense storm), and <35 keV electrons dominate the ring current electron energy content at the storm main phases. Though the electron energy content is usually much smaller than that of ions, the enhancement of ring current electron energy content during the moderate storm can get to ~30% of that of ring current ions, indicating a more dynamic feature of ring current electrons and important role of electrons in the ring current buildup. Lastly, the ring current electron energy density is also shown to be higher at midnight and dawn while lower at noon and dusk.« less

Synoptic Scale North American Weather Tracks and the Formation of North Atlantic Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, A. J.; Godek, M. L.

2014-12-01

Each winter, dozens of fatalities occur when intense North Atlantic windstorms impact Western Europe. Forecasting the tracks of these storms in the short term is often problematic, but long term forecasts provide an even greater challenge. Improved prediction necessitates the ability to identify these low pressure areas at formation and understand commonalities that distinguish these storms from other systems crossing the Atlantic, such as where they develop. There is some evidence that indicates the majority of intense windstorms that reach Europe have origins far west, as low pressure systems that develop over the North American continent. This project aims to identify the specific cyclogenesis regions in North America that produce a significantly greater number of dangerous storms. NOAA Ocean Prediction Center surface pressure reanalysis maps are used to examine the tracks of storms. Strong windstorms are characterized by those with a central pressure of less than 965 hPa at any point in their life cycle. Tracks are recorded using a coding system based on source region, storm track and dissipation region. The codes are analyzed to determine which region contains the most statistical significance with respect to strong Atlantic windstorm generation. The resultant set of codes also serves as a climatology of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results indicate that a number of windstorms favor cyclogenesis regions off the east coast of the United States. A large number of strong storms that encounter east coast cyclogenesis zones originate in the central mountain region, around Colorado. These storms follow a path that exits North America around New England and subsequently travel along the Canadian coast. Some of these are then primed to become "bombs" over the open Atlantic Ocean.

Deep convection over Northern Italy: synoptic and thermodynamic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, S.; Mezzasalma, P.; Levizzani, V.; Alberoni, P. P.; Nanni, S.

Synoptic and thermodynamic characteristics of severe storm outbreaks, including supercells, over northern Italy's Po valley are examined over a 3-year period. Storms are divided into three main categories according to the most relevant associated ground phenomenon: tornado-like, hailfall and heavy rain. For each category, the most common synoptic characteristics are investigated. Sounding data are used to calculate stability indices that help define the storm's environment. Results indicate that the interaction between the synoptic flow and the steep Alpine orography is the key factor responsible for building up the mesoscale circulation that leads to different kinds of severe storms. Some of the stability indices can be regarded as predictors of intense convection.

Impact of the winter 2013-2014 series of severe Western Europe storms on a double-barred sandy coast: Beach and dune erosion and megacusp embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Marieu, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Splinter, Kristen D.; Robinet, Arhur; Sénéchal, Nadia; Ferreira, Sophie

2015-06-01

The winter of 2013/2014 was characterized by a striking pattern of temporal and spatial extreme storm wave clustering in Western Europe. The 110-km long Gironde coast, SW France, was exposed to the most energetic wave conditions over the last 18 years. The period was outstanding in terms of the available energy to move sediment and cause large-scale erosion with the 2-month average significant wave height (Hs) exceeding 3.6 m, just below the 0.95 quantile, and 4 distinct 10-year return period storms with Hs > 9 m. These storm waves caused unprecedented beach and dune erosion along the Gironde coast, including severely damaged sea defences at the coastal towns. At the end of the winter, dune erosion scarp height was highly variable alongshore and often exceeded 10 m. Megacusp embayments were observed along the Gironde coast with an average alongshore spacing of 1000 m in the south progressively decreasing to 500 m in the north, with an average cross-shore amplitude of 20 m. While beach megacusps were previously observed to systematically couple to the inner bar along the Gironde coast during low- to moderate-energy wave conditions, severe storm-driven megacusp embayments cutting the dune were found to be enforced and coupled to the outer crescentic bar. A detailed inspection of the 1500 m-long bimonthly topographic surveys of Truc Vert beach shows that in early January 2014 the outstanding shore-normal incident storm swell 'Hercules', with Hs and peak wave period Tp peaking at 9.6 m and 22 s, respectively, triggered the formation of a localized megacusp embayment with the erosion scarp height exceeding 6 m in its centre where the dune retreat reached 30 m. The subsequent storms progressively smoothed the megacusp by the end of the winter, mostly through severe erosion of the megacusp horns. Because of the very long period (16 s < Tp < 23 s) storm waves with persistent shore-normal incidence, the well-developed outer crescentic bar observed prior to the winter did not straighten. Instead, the outer-bar three-dimensionality developed further, particularly during 'Hercules'. Our observations indicate that both the antecedent outer sandbar morphology and storm wave characteristics, including period and angle of incidence, govern patterns of beach and dune erosion along open multiple-barred sandy coasts during severe storms.

Auroral currents during the magnetic storm of November 8 and 9, 1991 - Observations from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Particle Environment Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, B. J.; Potemra, T. A.; Bythrow, P. F.; Zanetti, L. J.; Holland, D. B.; Winningham, J. D.

1993-01-01

The development of the intensity and location of Birkeland currents associated with the magnetic storm of November 8-9, 1991 is reported. Total Birkeland currents exceed 30 MA, more than six times nominal values, indicating Joule heating of about 3 x lO exp 12 W. Birkeland currents below 50 deg, polar cap currents indicative of antisunward convection, and cusp particle signatures of southward IMF all persist at least eight hours into recovery phase of the storm.

Gold in the hills: patterns of placer gold accumulation under dynamic tectonic and climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Sam; Upton, Phaedra; Craw, Dave

2018-01-01

Formation of placer accumulations in fluvial environments requires 103-106 or even greater times concentration of heavy minerals. For this to occur, regular sediment supply from erosion of adjacent topography is required, the river should remain within a single course for an extended period of time and the material must be reworked such that a high proportion of the sediment is removed while a high proportion of the heavy minerals remains. We use numerical modeling, constrained by observations of circum-Pacific placer gold deposits, to explore processes occurring in evolving river systems in dynamic tectonic environments. A fluvial erosion/transport model is used to determine the mobility of placer gold under variable uplift rate, storm intensity, and rock mass strength conditions. Gold concentration is calculated from hydraulic and bedload grain size conditions. Model results suggest that optimal gold concentration occurs in river channels that frequently approach a threshold between detachment-limited and transport-limited hydraulic conditions. Such a condition enables the accumulation of gold particles within the framework of a residual gravel lag. An increase in transport capacity, which can be triggered by faster uplift rates, more resistant bedrock, or higher intensity storm events, will strip all bedload from the channel. Conversely, a reduction in transport capacity, triggered by a reduction in uplift rate, bedrock resistance, or storm intensity, will lead to a greater accumulation of a majority of sediments and a net decrease in gold concentration. For our model parameter range, the optimal conditions for placer gold concentration are met by 103 times difference in strength between bedrock and fault, uplift rates between 1 and 5 mm a-1, and moderate storm intensities. Fault damage networks are shown to be a critical factor for high Au concentrations and should be a target for exploration.

Identification of debris-flow hazards in warm deserts through analyzing past occurrences: Case study in South Mountain, Sonoran Desert, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorn, Ronald I.

2016-11-01

After recognition that debris flows co-occur with human activities, the next step in a hazards analysis involves estimating debris-flow probability. Prior research published in this journal in 2010 used varnish microlamination (VML) dating to determine a minimum occurrence of 5 flows per century over the last 8100 years in a small mountain range of South Mountain adjacent to neighborhoods of Phoenix, Arizona. This analysis led to the conclusion that debris flows originating in small mountain ranges in arid regions like the Sonoran Desert could pose a hazard. Two major precipitation events in the summer of 2014 generated 35 debris flows in the same study area of South Mountain-providing support for the importance of probability analysis as a key step in a hazards analysis in warm desert settings. Two distinct mechanisms generated the 2014 debris flows: intense precipitation on steep slopes in the first storm; and a firehose effect whereby runoff from the second storm was funneled rapidly by cleaned-out debris-flow chutes to remobilize Pleistocene debris-flow deposits. When compared to a global database on debris flows, the 2014 storms were among the most intense to generate desert debris flows - indicating that storms of lesser intensity are capable of generating debris flows in warm desert settings. The 87Sr/86Sr analyses of fines and clasts in South Mountain debris flows of different ages reveal that desert dust supplies the fines. Thus, wetter climatic periods of intense rock decay are not needed to resupply desert slopes with fines; instead, a combination of dust deposition supplying fines and dirt cracking generating coarse clasts can re-arm chutes in a warm desert setting with abundant dust.

Investigating Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in North American Winter Storm Track Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E.; Gachon, P., Sr.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2017-12-01

This study describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into extratropical cyclone (EC) activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981 - 2005) is firstly considered using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European global reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) used to drive the Canadian RCM - version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological EC track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while their intensity is well captured. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over the eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence from GCMs over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with main relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value from the CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Finally, time period near the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) is considered to analyze EC characteristic trends and changes relative to the current climate conditions, showing important modifications in storm activity for certain winter months, especially in term of intensity over the eastern coast.

Great geomagnetic storm of 9 November 1991: Association with a disappearing solar filament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, E. W.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Nitta, N. V.; Li, X.

2009-02-01

We attribute the great geomagnetic storm on 8-10 November 1991 to a large-scale eruption that encompassed the disappearance of a ~25° solar filament in the southern solar hemisphere. The resultant soft X-ray arcade spanned ~90° of solar longitude. The rapid growth of an active region lying at one end of the X-ray arcade appears to have triggered the eruption. This is the largest geomagnetic storm yet associated with the eruption of a quiescent filament. The minimum hourly Dst value of -354 nT on 9 November 1991 compares with a minimum Dst value of -161 nT for the largest 27-day recurrent (coronal hole) storm observed from 1972 to 2005 and the minimum -559 nT value observed during the flare-associated storm of 14 March 1989, the greatest magnetic storm recorded during the space age. Overall, the November 1991 storm ranks 15th on a list of Dst storms from 1905 to 2004, surpassing in intensity such well-known storms as 14 July 1982 (-310 nT) and 15 July 2000 (-317 nT). We used the Cliver et al. and Gopalswamy et al. empirical models of coronal mass ejection propagation in the solar wind to provide consistency checks on the eruption/storm association.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Ionospheric behaviour during storm recovery phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buresova, D.; Lastovicka, J.; Boska, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Chum, J.

2012-04-01

Intensive ionospheric research, numerous multi-instrumental observations and large-scale numerical simulations of ionospheric F region response to magnetic storm-induced disturbances during the last several decades were primarily focused on the storm main phase, in most cases covering only a few hours of the recovery phase following after storm culmination. Ionospheric behaviour during entire recovery phase still belongs to not sufficiently explored and hardly predictable features. In general, the recovery phase is characterized by an abatement of perturbations and a gradual return to the "ground state" of ionosphere. However, observations of stormy ionosphere show significant departures from the climatology also within this phase. This paper deals with the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ionospheric behaviour during the entire recovery phase of strong-to-severe magnetic storms at middle latitudes for nowadays and future modelling and forecasting purposes.

Changes in thunderstorm characteristics due to feeder cloud merging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinkevich, Andrei A.; Krauss, Terrence W.

2014-06-01

Cumulus cloud merging is a complex dynamical and microphysical process in which two convective cells merge into a single cell. Previous radar observations and numerical simulations have shown a substantial increase in the maximum area, maximum echo top and maximum reflectivity as a result of the merging process. Although the qualitative aspects of merging have been well documented, the quantitative effects on storm properties remain less defined. Therefore, a statistical assessment of changes in storm characteristics due to merging is of importance. Further investigation into the effects of cloud merging on precipitation flux (Pflux) in a statistical manner provided the motivation for this study in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia. It was confirmed that merging has a strong effect on storm development in this region. The data analysis shows that an increase in the median of the distribution of maximum reflectivity was observed just after merging and was equal to 3.9 dBZ. A detailed analysis of the individual merge cases compared the merged storm Pflux and mass to the sum of the individual Feeder and Storm portions just before merging for each case. The merged storm Pflux increased an average of 106% over the 20-min period after merging, and the mass increased on average 143%. The merged storm clearly became larger and more severe than the sum of the two parts prior to merging. One consequence of this study is that any attempts to evaluate the precipitation enhancement effects of cloud seeding must also include the issue of cloud mergers because merging can have a significant effect on the results.

An empirical method for determining average soil infiltration rates and runoff, Powder River structural basin, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rankl, James G.

1982-01-01

This report describes a method to estimate infiltration rates of soils for use in estimating runoff from small basins. Average rainfall intensity is plotted against storm duration on log-log paper. All rainfall events are designated as having either runoff or nonrunoff. A power-decay-type curve is visually fitted to separate the two types of rainfall events. This separation curve is an incipient-ponding curve and its equation describes infiltration parameters for a soil. For basins with more than one soil complex, only the incipient-ponding curve for the soil complex with the lowest infiltration rate can be defined using the separation technique. Incipient-ponding curves for soils with infiltration rates greater than the lowest curve are defined by ranking the soils according to their relative permeabilities and optimizing the curve position. A comparison of results for six basins produced computed total runoff for all events used ranging from 16.6 percent less to 2.3 percent more than measured total runoff. (USGS)

An Investigation of Dust Storms Observed with the Mars Color Imager

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Wang, Huiqun

2017-01-01

Daily global imaging by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) continues the record of the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and has allowed creation of a long-duration record of Martian dust storms. We observe dust storms over the first two Mars years of the MARCI record, including tracking individual storms over multiple sols, as well as tracking the growth and recession of the seasonal polar caps. Using the combined 6 Mars year record of textured dust storms (storms with visible textures on the observed dust cloud tops), we study the relationship between textured dust storm activity and meteorology (as simulated by the MarsWRF general circulation model) and surface properties. We find that textured dust storms preferentially occur in places and seasons with above average surface wind stress. Textured dust storm occurrence also has a modest linear anti-correlation with surface albedo (0.43) and topography (0.40). Lastly, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the distribution of occurrence of textured dust storms and find that over 50 of the variance in textured dust storm activity can be explained by two EOF modes. We associate the first EOF mode with cap-edge storms just before Ls = 180deg and the second EOF mode with flushing dust storms that occur from Ls = 180-210deg and again near Ls = 320deg.

Use of Historical Radar Rainfall Estimates to Develop Design Storms in Los Angeles.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, D. C.; Humphrey, J.; Moffitt, J.

2007-12-01

A database of 15-minute historical gage adjusted radar-rainfall estimates was used to evaluate the geometric properties of storms in the City of Los Angeles, CA. The database includes selected months containing significant rainfall during the period 1996-2007. For each time step, areas of contiguous rainfall were identified as individual storm cells. An idealized ellipse was fit to each storm cell and the properties of the ellipse (e.g., size, shape, orientation, velocity and other parameters) were recorded. To accurately account for the range of storm cell sizes, capture a large number of storm cells in a climatologically similar area, assess the variability of storm movement, and minimize the impact of edge effects (i.e., incomplete coverage of cells entering and leaving), a study area substantially larger than the City of Los Angeles was used. The study area extends from city center to 30 miles north to the crest of San Gabriel Mountains, 45 miles east to Ontario, 60 miles south to Santa Catalina Island, and 70 miles west to Oxnard, an area of about10,000 square miles. Radar data for this area over 30 months in the study yields many thousands of storm cells for analysis. Storms were separated into classes by origin, direction and speed of movement. Preliminary investigations considers three types: Arctic origin (west-northwest), Pacific origin (southwest) and Tropical origin (south or stationary). Radar data (for 1996-2007) and upper air maps (1948-2006) are used to identify the direction and speed of significant precipitation events. Typical duration and temporal patterns of Los Angeles historical storms were described by season and storm type. Time of maximum intensity loading variation were determined for a selection of historic storms Depth-Areal Reduction Factors (DARF) for cloudbursts were developedfrom the radar data. These data curves are fit to equations showing the relationships between DARF, area and central intensity. Separate DARF curves are developed for 6X (6 events per year), 4X, 3X, 2X, 1, 2, 5 and 10 year recurrence, and durations from 5 minutes to 7-days. A comparison is made between DARF derived in these analyses with NOAA Atlas 12 DARF, the USACE Sierra Madre Storm and other DARF developed for the interior Southwest. Orographic increases in DDF are related to the Los Angeles County Flood Control District Hydrology Manual 24-hr 50-yr Precipitation maps, elevation from USGS topographic maps and Mean Annual Precipitation maps.

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cammarata, Michael

2004-01-01

Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

Mass movement and storms in the drainage basin of Redwood Creek, Humboldt County, California: a progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Deborah Reid; Janda, Richard J.; Nolan, K. Michael

1978-01-01

Numerous active landslides are clearly significant contributors to high sediment loads in the Redwood Creek basin. Field and aerial-photograph inspections indicate that large mass-movement features, such as earthflows and massive streamside debris slides, occur primarily in terrain underlain by unmetamorphosed or slightly metamorphosed sedimentary rocks. These features cannot account for stream sediment derived from schist. Observed lithologic heterogeneity of stream sediment therefore suggests that large-scale mass movement is only one part of a complex suite of processes supplying sediment to streams in this basin. Other significant sediment contributors include various forms of fluvial erosion and small-scale discrete mass failures, particularly on oversteepened hillslopes adjacent to perennial streams. Photo-interpretive studies of landslide and timber-harvest history adjacent to Redwood Creek, together with analysis of regional precipitation and runoff records for six flood-producing storms between 1953 and 1975, indicate that loci and times of significant streamside landsliding are influenced by both local storm intensity and streamside logging. Analysis of rainfall records and historic accounts indicates that the individual storms comprising a late-19th-century series of storms in northwestern California were similar in magnitude and spacing to those of the past 25 years. The recent storms apparently initiated more streamside landslides than comparable earlier storms, which occurred prior to extensive road construction and timber harvest. Field observations and repeated surveys of stake arrays at 10 sites in the basin indicate that earthflows are especially active during prolonged periods of moderate rainfall; but that during brief intense storms, fluvial processes are the dominant erosion mechanism. Stake movement occurs mostly during wet winter months. Spring and summer movement was detected at some moist streamside sites. Surveys of stake arrays in two recently logged areas did not indicate exceptionally rapid rates of movement in three years following timber harvest.

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by the NWS at the Raleigh-Durham (RAH) forecast office for 10 winter storms. Analysis of these ASCII forecasts will be presented.

The Identification of Hail Storms in the Early Stage Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Shi, Jinyu; Hou, Jinyi; Hu, Yan

2018-01-01

This study investigates the characteristics of hail storms and cumulonimbus storms in China from 2005 to 2016. Ten features are proposed to identify storm cells that can produce hail, especially in the early stage of hail formation. These features describe hail storms based on three factors: the height and thickness of the cell core, the radar echo intensity, and the overhang structure and the horizontal reflectivity gradient. The 10 features are transformed into two-dimensional comprehensive features by principal component analysis (PCA). The two comprehensive features are named the volume measurement comprehensive feature (VMCF) and the height-gradient comprehensive feature (HGCF). Through an analysis of 49 hail cases and 35 heavy rainfall cases with S-band radar data, the time series exhibit a distinct increase in VMCF or HGCF values in the early stage of a hail storm. However, the VMCF and HGCF values of heavy rainfall events remain relatively stable throughout the storm life cycle. An experiment involving real-storm events, including 31 hail cases and 33 heavy rainfall cases, indicated that the probability of detection of hail storms was 93.33% and the false alarm ratio was 15.66%. In the cases that could be successfully identified as hail storms, 80.00% were detected within 18 min of reaching a hail storm reflectivity of 40 dBZ.

Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano; Zeng, Hongcheng; Raupp, Carlos F. M.; Marra, Daniel M.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Higuchi, Niro

2010-08-01

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent α = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system.

What Properties of CMEs are Most Important for Space Weather?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat

2012-01-01

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and major geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasmas arriving at Earth. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key players in both these aspects. CMEs traveling at super-Alfv nic speeds drive fast-mode MHD shocks that create the high levels of particle radiation. When a CME arrives at Earth, the CME-associated magnetic fields reconnect with Earth s magnetopause fields resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon CME arrival at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Intense shocks arriving at Earth have additional space weather effects such as sudden impulse that shrinks the magnetosphere often exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to the solar wind and energetic storm particle events. This paper highlights these space weather effects using CME observations space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

AURORAL X-RAYS, COSMIC RAYS, AND RELATED PHENOMENA DURING THE STORM OF FEBRUARY 10-11, 1958

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winckler, J.R.; Peterson, L.; Hoffman, R.

1959-06-01

Balloon observations were made during the auroral storm of February 10- 11, 1958, at Minneapolis. Strong x-ray bursts in two groups were detected. The groups appeared coincident with two large magnetic bays, with strong radio noise absorption, and with the passage across the zenith of a very large amount of auroral luminosity. From the x-ray intensity and measured energies, an electron current of 0.6 x 10/sup 6/ electrons /cm/sup 2// scc was present. These electrons ionizing the upper D layer accounted for the increased cosmic noise absorption. The x-rays themselves carried 1000 times less energy than the electrons and couldmore » not provide sufficient ionization for the observed radio absorption. Visual auroral fornis during this storm are reported to have lower borders at thc 200 to 300 km level. There is thus a difficulty in bringing the electrons to the D layer without ani accompanying visible aurora. A cosmic-ray decrease accompanied the storm and was observed to be from 4 to 6% at sea level, 21% in the balloon altitude ionization, and 15% in total energy influx at 55 deg geomagnetic latitude. Compared with the great intensity of the magnetic and auroral phenomena in this storm, the cosmic-ray modulation was not exceptionally large. (auth)« less

Skill assessment of a real-time forecast system utilizing a coupled hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic model during Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dresback, Kendra M.; Fleming, Jason G.; Blanton, Brian O.; Kaiser, Carola; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Tromble, Evan M.; Luettich, Richard A.; Kolar, Randall L.; Hong, Yang; Van Cooten, Suzanne; Vergara, Humberto J.; Flamig, Zac L.; Lander, Howard M.; Kelleher, Kevin E.; Nemunaitis-Monroe, Kodi L.

2013-12-01

Due to the devastating effects of recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico (e.g., Katrina, Rita, Ike and Gustav), the development of a high-resolution, real-time, total water level prototype system has been accelerated. The fully coupled model system that includes hydrology is an extension of the ADCIRC Surge Guidance System (ASGS), and will henceforth be referred to as ASGS-STORM (Scalable, Terrestrial, Ocean, River, Meteorological) to emphasize the major processes that are represented by the system.The ASGS-STORM system incorporates tides, waves, winds, rivers and surge to produce a total water level, which provides a holistic representation of coastal flooding. ASGS-STORM was rigorously tested during Hurricane Irene, which made landfall in late August 2011 in North Carolina. All results from ASGS-STORM for the advisories were produced in real-time, forced by forecast wind and pressure fields computed using a parametric tropical cyclone model, and made available via the web. Herein, a skill assessment, analyzing wind speed and direction, significant wave heights, and total water levels, is used to evaluate ASGS-STORM's performance during Irene for three advisories and the best track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). ASGS-STORM showed slight over-prediction for two advisories (Advisory 23 and 25) due to the over-estimation of the storm intensity. However, ASGS-STORM shows notable skill in capturing total water levels, wind speed and direction, and significant wave heights in North Carolina when utilizing Advisory 28, which had a slight shift in the track but provided a more accurate estimation of the storm intensity, along with the best track from the NHC. Results from ASGS-STORM have shown that as the forecast of the advisories improves, so does the accuracy of the models used in the study; therefore, accurate input from the weather forecast is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to ensure the accuracy of the guidance provided by the system. While Irene provided a real-time test of the viability of a total water level system, the relatively insignificant freshwater discharges precludes definitive conclusions about the role of freshwater discharges on total water levels in estuarine zones. Now that the system has been developed, on-going work will examine storms (e.g., Floyd) for which the freshwater discharge played a more meaningful role.

Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

Ring current-energy balance during intense magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clua de Gonzalez, A. L.; Gonzalez, W. D.

2013-12-01

The energy-rate balance that governs the storm-time ring current is analyzed in terms of the Burton-McPherron-Russell equation (Burton et al., 1975). This is a first order differential equation relating the time variation of the pressure corrected Dst index, with the energy input to the magnetosphere. Based on the Burton et al. equation, we have analyzed in detail the geomagnetic storm of February 11, 2004. The energy input is taken proportional to the interplanetary electric field, Q(t) = αBsV, where Bs is the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field in GSM coordinates, V is the flow speed of the solar wind and α a constant. The equation is integrated using the OMNI-combined interplanetary data and, the value of the decay time is estimated from a best fit of the response to the observed curve. For this storm we also use a rectangular approximation for the energy input function, thus allowing an analytical solution of the Burton et al. equation. The results from this approximation are then compared to the numerical solution. The study is also extended to the geomagnetic storm of April 22, 2001. This analysis seems to indicate that the Burton et al. equation should contain also a corrective term proportional to the second time derivative of the Dst index. This corrective term might become important for intense storms, with an effect of counteracting the growth of |Dst| before the energy input from the interplanetary medium declines, such that the value of |Dst| starts to decrease instead of continuing to grow.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Baker, D. N.

Based on comprehensive measurements from Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron Mass Spectrometer Ion Spectrometer, Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope, and Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment instruments on the Van Allen Probes, comparative studies of ring current electrons and ions are performed and the role of energetic electrons in the ring current dynamics is investigated. The deep injections of tens to hundreds of keV electrons and tens of keV protons into the inner magnetosphere occur frequently; after the injections the electrons decay slowly in the inner belt but protons in the low L region decay very fast. Intriguing similarities between lowermore » energy protons and higher-energy electrons are also found. The evolution of ring current electron and ion energy densities and energy content are examined in detail during two geomagnetic storms, one moderate and one intense. Here, the results show that the contribution of ring current electrons to the ring current energy content is much smaller than that of ring current ions (up to ~12% for the moderate storm and ~7% for the intense storm), and <35 keV electrons dominate the ring current electron energy content at the storm main phases. Though the electron energy content is usually much smaller than that of ions, the enhancement of ring current electron energy content during the moderate storm can get to ~30% of that of ring current ions, indicating a more dynamic feature of ring current electrons and important role of electrons in the ring current buildup. Lastly, the ring current electron energy density is also shown to be higher at midnight and dawn while lower at noon and dusk.« less

The May 1967 Great Storm and Radio Disruption Event: The Impacts We Didn't Know About

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knipp, D.

2016-12-01

Although listed as one of the most significant events of the last 80 years, the space weather storm of late May 1967 has been of mostly fading academic interest. The storm made its initial mark with a colossal solar radio burst causing radio interference at frequencies between 0.01-9.0 GHz and near-simultaneous disruptions of dayside radio communication by intense fluxes of ionizing solar X-rays. Aspects of military control and communication were immediately challenged. Within hours a solar energetic particle event disrupted high frequency communication in the polar cap. Subsequently record-setting geomagnetic and ionospheric storms compounded the disruptions. We explain how the May 1967 storm was nearly one with ultimate societal impact, were it not for the nascent efforts of the United States Air Force in expanding its terrestrial weather monitoring-analysis-warning-prediction efforts into the realm of space weather forecasting. This event is also one with severe impacts on thermospheric temperature and satellite drag. This story develops during the rapid rise of solar cycle 20 and the intense Cold War in the latter half of the 20th Century. We detail the events of late May 1967 in the intersecting categories of solar-terrestrial interactions and the political-military backdrop of the Cold War. This was one of the "Great Storms" of the 20th century, despite the lack of large geomagnetically-induced currents. Radio disruptions like those discussed here warrant the attention of today's radio-reliant, cellular-phone and satellite-navigation enabled world.

The seeding of cumulus clouds by ground-based silver iodide generators

Treesearch

Vincent J. Schaefer; John H. Dieterich

1959-01-01

The control of thunderstorms is a challenging objective in experimental meteorology. For the past five years it has been the long-range goal of Project Skyfire. The lightning storm season in western Montana, northern Idaho, eastern Oregon and Washington normally extends from June to September with the greatest storm intensity occurring in July and August. Over the past...

Directional Wave Spectra Observed During Intense Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, C. O.; Potter, H.; Lund, B.; Tamura, H.; Graber, H. C.

2018-02-01

Two deep-sea moorings were deployed 780 km off the coast of southern Taiwan for 4-5 months during the 2010 typhoon season. Directional wave spectra, wind speed and direction, and momentum fluxes were recorded on two Extreme Air-Sea Interaction buoys during the close passage of Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu and three tropical cyclones (TCs): Typhoon Fanapi, Super Typhoon Megi, and Typhoon Chaba. Conditions sampled include significant wave heights up to 11 m and wind speeds up to 26 m s-1. Details varied for large-scale spectral structure in frequency and direction but were mostly bimodal. The modes were generally composed of a swell system emanating from the most intense storm region and local wind-seas. The peak systems were consistently young, meaning actively forced by winds, when the storms were close. During the peaks of the most intense passages—Chaba at the northern mooring and Megi at the southern—the bimodal seas coalesced. During Chaba, the swell and wind-sea coupling directed the high frequency waves and the wind stress away from the wind direction. A spectral wave model was able reproduce many of the macrofeatures of the directional spectra.

Dynamics of the High-latitude Ionospheric Irregularities During the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherniak, I.; Zakharenkova, I.; Redmon, R. J.; Andrzej, K.

2015-12-01

We presents results on the study of the high-latitude ionospheric irregularities observed in worldwide GPS data during the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm (March 17, 2015). Multi-site GPS observations from more than 2500 ground-based GPS stations were used to analyze the dynamics of the ionospheric irregularities in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The most intense ionospheric irregularities lasted for more than 24 hours starting at 07 UT of March 17. This period correlates well with an increase of the auroral Hemispheric Power index. We find hemispheric asymmetries in the intensity and spatial structure of the ionospheric irregularities. Over North America the ionospheric irregularities zone expanded equatorward below ~45°N geographic latitude. Additionally, the strong mid and high latitude GPS phase irregularities in the auroral oval were found to be related to the formation of storm enhanced density, polar tongues of ionization and deepening of the main ionospheric trough through upper atmosphere ionization by energetic particle precipitations. Significant increases in the intensity of the irregularities within the polar cap region of both hemispheres were associated with the formation and evolution of the SED/TOI structures and polar patches.

Comparison between Measured and Calculated Sediment Transport Rates in North Fork Caspar Creek, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T. W.; Yarnell, S. M.; Yager, E.; Leidman, S. Z.

2015-12-01

Caspar Creek is a gravel-bedded stream located in the Jackson Demonstration State Forest in the coast range of California. The Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed has been actively monitored and studied by the Pacific Southwest Research Station and California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection for over five decades. Although total annual sediment yield has been monitored through time, sediment transport during individual storm events is less certain. At a study site on North Fork Caspar Creek, cross-section averaged sediment flux was collected throughout two storm events in December 2014 and February 2015 to determine if two commonly used sediment transport equations—Meyer-Peter-Müller and Wilcock—approximated observed bedload transport. Cross-section averaged bedload samples were collected approximately every hour during each storm event using a Helley-Smith bedload sampler. Five-minute composite samples were collected at five equally spaced locations along a cross-section and then sieved to half-phi sizes to determine the grain size distribution. The measured sediment flux values varied widely throughout the storm hydrographs and were consistently less than two orders of magnitude in value in comparison to the calculated values. Armored bed conditions, changing hydraulic conditions during each storm and variable sediment supply may have contributed to the observed differences.

Snoozing through the storm: torpor use during a natural disaster

PubMed Central

Nowack, Julia; Rojas, A. Daniella; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

2015-01-01

Although storms provide an extreme environmental challenge to organisms and are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, there are no quantitative observations on the behaviour and physiology of animals during natural disasters. We provide the first data on activity and thermal biology of a free-ranging, arboreal mammal during a storm with heavy rain and category 1 cyclone wind speeds. We studied a population of sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps), a species vulnerable to bad weather due to their small body size and mode of locomotion, in a subtropical habitat during spring when storms are common. Although torpor is generally rare in this species, sugar gliders remained inactive or reduced foraging times during the storm and further minimized energy demands by entering deep torpor. All animals survived the storm and reverted to normal foraging activity during the following night(s). It thus appears that heterothermic mammals have a crucial adaptive advantage over homeothermic species as they can outlast challenging weather events, such as storms and floods, by reducing metabolism and thus energetic needs. PMID:26073747

Snoozing through the storm: torpor use during a natural disaster.

PubMed

Nowack, Julia; Rojas, A Daniella; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

2015-06-15

Although storms provide an extreme environmental challenge to organisms and are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, there are no quantitative observations on the behaviour and physiology of animals during natural disasters. We provide the first data on activity and thermal biology of a free-ranging, arboreal mammal during a storm with heavy rain and category 1 cyclone wind speeds. We studied a population of sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps), a species vulnerable to bad weather due to their small body size and mode of locomotion, in a subtropical habitat during spring when storms are common. Although torpor is generally rare in this species, sugar gliders remained inactive or reduced foraging times during the storm and further minimized energy demands by entering deep torpor. All animals survived the storm and reverted to normal foraging activity during the following night(s). It thus appears that heterothermic mammals have a crucial adaptive advantage over homeothermic species as they can outlast challenging weather events, such as storms and floods, by reducing metabolism and thus energetic needs.

Using XRF Geochemical Data to Differentiate Storm Event Deposits in a Backbarrier Lake in Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, M.; Liu, K. B.; Bianchette, T. A.; Yao, Q.; McCloskey, T.

2016-12-01

Hurricanes Gustav and Ike consecutively impacted coastal Louisiana in 2008 and generated significant storm surges. Three sediment cores taken from Bay Champagne, a coastal backbarrier lake near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, clearly show a deposition layer of clastic sediment up to 17 cm thick attributable to these two storms. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis indicates that the two storm events can be distinguished from one another based on contrasting geochemical profiles. The bottom layer, presumably deposited by Hurricane Gustav, has high concentrations of S, Cl, Ca, and Sr, suggesting a strong marine influence. The top layer, presumably attributed to Hurricane Ike, has high concentrations of Ti, Mn, Fe and Zn, indicative of material of terrestrial origin. The elemental concentration profiles suggest that the storm deposits in each core were deposited through two distinct hydrological processes: a storm surge -driven marine intrusion during Hurricane Gustav, followed by intensive freshwater flooding during Hurricane Ike. Using these deposits as modern analogs, this technique could be applied to characterize older storm layers in the sedimentary record and potentially provide information about their respective depositional mechanisms.

Effect of storms on Barrier Island dynamics, Core Banks, Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, 1960-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riggs, Stanley R.; Ames, Dorothea V.

2007-01-01

The effect of storms on long-term dynamics of barrier islands was evaluated on Core Banks, a series of barrier islands that extend from Cape Lookout to Okracoke Inlet in the Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina. Shoreline and elevation changes were determined by comparing 77 profiles and associated reference markers established by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) on Core Banks from June 1960 to July 1962 to a follow-up survey by Godfrey and Godfrey (G&G) in 1971 and a survey by the Department of Geology at East Carolina University (ECU) in 2001, in which 57 of the original 77 profiles were located. Evaluation of the baseline data associated with the USACE study supplies an important record of barrier island response to two specific storm events—Hurricane Donna in September 1960 and the Ash Wednesday extra-tropical cyclone in March 1962. The 1962 USACE survey was followed by 9 years characterized by no major storms; this low-energy period was captured by the G&G survey in 1971. The G&G survey was followed by 22 years characterized by occasional small to moderate storms. Starting in 1993, however, and continuing through 1999, the North Carolina coast experienced a major increase in storm activity, with seven major hurricanes impacting Core Banks. Both the USACE 1960–1962 and G&G 1962–1971 surveys produced short-term data sets that reflected very different sets of weather conditions. The ECU 2001 survey data were then compared with the USACE 1960 survey data to develop a long-term (41 years) data set for shoreline erosion on Core Banks. Those resulting long-term data were compared with the long-term (52 years) data sets by the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management (NCDCM) from 1940–1992 and 1946–1998; a strong positive correlation and very similar rates of average annual erosion resulted. However, the ECU and NCDCM long-term data sets did not correlate with either of the USACE and G&G short-term survey data and had very different average annual erosion rates. The average annual long-term rate of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks and for both the ECU 1960–2001 and the NCDCM 1946–1998 surveys was -5 feet per year (ft/yr). These long-term rates of shoreline recession are in strong contrast with the short-term, storm-dominated rates of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks developed by the USACE 1960–1961 and USACE 1961–1962 surveys, which have average annual erosion rates of -40 ft/yr and -26 ft/yr, respectively, and range from -226 feet (ft) to +153 ft. The combined short-term, storm-dominated shoreline erosion rate for the USACE surveys (1960–1962) was -36 ft/yr. In contrast, the average annual short-term, non-stormy period G&G 1962–1971 survey demonstrated shoreline accretion for all of Core Banks with an average annual rate of +12 ft/yr. In general, North Core Banks has higher erosion and accretion rates than South Core Banks. In the 1961 survey, the USACE installed 231 reference markers (RM-0 is closest to the ocean and RM-2 is farthest from the ocean) along the 77 profiles, as well as 33 reference markers labeled RM-4, RM-6, and RM-8 in the wider portions of the islands. The G&G survey recovered a total of 141 reference markers (61 percent), and the ECU survey recovered a total of 83 reference markers (36 percent) of the RM-0, RM-1, and RM-2 markers. The average ground elevation measured by the USACE in 1961 was RM-0 = +5.8 ft, RM-1 = +5.2 ft, and RM-2 = +4.8 ft. The G&G 1970 survey measured average ground elevations of RM-0 = +6.7 ft, RM-1 = +6.4 ft, and RM-2 = +6.1 ft, and the average ground elevation measured by ECU in 2001 was RM-0 = +10.1 ft, RM-1 = +9.1 ft, and RM-2 = +8.5 ft. The latter numbers represent approximately an overall 72-percent increase in island elevation from 1961 to 2001. Based on aerial photographic time-slice analyses, it is hypothesized that this increase in island elevation occurred during the post-1962 period with storm overwash systematically raising the island elevation through time, which in turn led to decreased numbers of overwash events. The latter processes and responses in turn led to a substantial increase in vegetative growth on the barrier island, as well as submerged aquatic vegetation on the back-barrier sand shoals. Integration of the USACE, G&G, ECU, and NCDCM shoreline erosion data for Core Banks shows several important points about shoreline recession. (1) The ECU and NCDCM data sets demonstrate that there is an ongoing net, long-term, but small-scale shoreline recession associated with Core Banks; (2) the USACE short-term data sets demonstrate that processes associated with individual storm events or sets of events produce extremely large-scale changes that include both erosion and accretion; (3) the short-term, non-stormy period data set of G&G demonstrates that if given enough time between storm events, barriers can rebuild to their pre-storm period conditions; and (4) the post-storm response generally tends to approach the pre-storm location, but rarely reaches it before the next storm or stormy period sets in. The result is the net long-term change documented by both the ECU 1960–2001 and NCDCM 1946–1998 Core Banks data sets that resulted in erosion rates ranging from 0 to -30 ft/yr with net annual average recession rates of -5 ft/yr. Analysis and comparison of these data sets supply important information for understanding the dynamics and responses of barrier island systems through time. In addition, the results of the present study on Core Banks supply essential process-response information that can be used to design and implement management plans for the Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores and for other seashores in the U.S. National Park Service system.

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf

PubMed Central

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-01-01

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5–6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast. PMID:25821268

East Asian observations of low-latitude aurora during the Carrington magnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Isobe, Hiroaki; Kataoka, Ryuho; Ebihara, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Shibata, Kazunari

2016-12-01

A magnetic storm around 1859 September 2, caused by a so-called Carrington flare, was the most intense in the history of modern scientific observations, and hence is considered to be a benchmark event concerning space weather. The magnetic storm caused worldwide observations of auroras, even at very low latitudes, such as Hawaii, Panama, or Santiago. Available magnetic-field measurements at Bombay, India, showed two peaks: the main was the Carrington event, which occurred in day time in East Asia; a second storm after the Carrington event occurred at night in East Asia. In this paper, we present results from surveys of aurora records in East Asia, which provide new information concerning the aurora activity of this important event. We found some new East Asian records of low-latitude aurora observations caused by a storm which occurred after the Carrington event. The size of the aurora belt of the second peak of the Carrington magnetic storm was even wider than that of usual low-latitude aurora events.

Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-01-01

Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Ocean-Wave Dynamics Analysis during Hurricane Ida and Norida Using a Fully Coupled Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olabarrieta, M.; Warner, J. C.; Armstrong, B. N.

2010-12-01

Extreme storms, such as hurricanes and extratropical storms play a dominant role in shaping the beaches of the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Future tropical depressions will be more intense than in the present climate (Assessment Report of IPCC, 2007) and therefore coastal areas are likely to become more susceptible to their effects. The major damage caused by these extreme events is associated with the duration of the storm, storm intensity, waves, and the total water levels reached during the storm. Numerical models provide a useful approach to study the spatial and temporal distribution of these parameters. However, the correct estimation of the total water levels and wind wave heights through numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the air-sea interface dynamics. These processes are highly complex due to the variable interactions between winds, ocean waves and currents near the sea surface. In the present research we use the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modeling system (Warner et al., 2010) to address the key role of the atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions during Hurricane Ida and its posterior evolution to NorIda, November 2009. This northeastern storm was one of the most costly in the past two decades and likely in the top five of the past century. One interesting aspect of the considered period is that it includes two very different atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a northeastern storm, developed in regions with very different oceanographic characteristics. By performing a suite of numerical runs we are able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (WRF model), the ocean (ROMS model) and the wave propagation and generation model (SWAN). Special attention is given to the role of the ocean surface roughness and high resolution SST fields on the atmospheric boundary layers dynamics and consequently these effects on the wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surge. The effects of ocean currents on wind wave generation and propagations are also analyzed. The model results are compared to different data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the NDBC and the National Tidal Database respectively. The results identified that the inclusion of the ocean roughness on the atmospheric module greatly improves the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves and the storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Ida through the Gulf of Mexico the wind speeds are reduced due to the wave induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During NorIda, the effect of the surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. Three different ocean roughness closure models are analyzed, with the wave-age based closure model providing the best results. Ocean currents are also shown to affect wave spectral characteristics through the generation and propagation processes. Changes within 15% on the significant wave height are detected in areas affected by the main oceanic currents: the Gulf Stream and the Loop Current.

Sediment delivery after a wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reneau, Steven L.; Katzman, D.; Kuyumjian, G.A.; Lavine, A.; Malmon, D.V.

2007-01-01

We use a record of sedimentation a small reservoir within the Cerro Grande burn area, New Mexico, to document postfire delivery of ash, other fine-grained sediment carried in suspension within floods, and coarse-grained sediment transported as bedload over a five-year period. Ash content of sediment layers is estimated using fallout 137Cs as a tracer, and ash concentrations are shown to rapidly decrease through a series of moderate-intensity convective storms in the first rainy season after the fire. Over 90% of the ash was delivered to the reservoir in the first year, and ash concentrations in suspended sediment were negligible after the second year. Delivery of the remainder of the fine sediment also declined rapidly after the first year despite the occurrence of higher-intensity storms in the second year. Fine sediment loads after five years remained significantly above prefire averages. Deposition of coarse-grained sediment was irregular in time and was associated with transport by snowmelt runoff of sediment stored along the upstream channel during short-duration summer floods. Coarse sediment delivery in the first four years was strongly correlated with snowmelt volume, suggesting a transport-limited system with abundant available sediment. Transport rates of coarse sediment declined in the fifth year, consistent with a transition to a more stable channel as the accessible sediment supply was depleted and the channel bed coarsened. Maximum impacts from ash and other fine-grained sediment therefore occurred soon after the fire, whereas the downstream impacts from coarse-grained sediment were attenuated by the more gradual process of bedload sediment transport. ?? 2007 Geological Society of America.

Influence of Asian dust storms on air quality in Taiwan.

PubMed

Liu, Chung-Ming; Young, Chea-Yuan; Lee, Yen-Chih

2006-09-15

In each year, dust storms triggered by cold air masses passing through northern China and Mongolia enhance the PM10 concentration over Taiwan region during winter and spring. On average, there are four to five dust events and 6.1 dust days in a year in Taiwan. Each event lasts for 1 day or even longer. A procedure to identify a dust event is rationalized and exercised on data collected during 1994-2005. Also, a ranking method named as the dust intensity rank (DIR) is developed to distinguish the intensity of each event affecting the local air quality. About 86% of dust days belong to ranks 1 and 2. In general, poorer air quality is associated with higher ranks. Ranks 4 and 5 correspond to a PSI (Pollution Standard Index) larger than 100. Linking DIR with the popular PSI is useful for both the public and the official forecasting system. It is also useful for inter-comparison between dust influences on air quality at different downstream regions in Taiwan. Composite analyses of the temporal and spatial variation of the hourly PM10 level indicate that dust particles usually arrive 12 h before the time of the peak PM10 concentration and last for 36 h at northern Taiwan, while the time of the peak concentration at eastern or western Taiwan, due to the evolution of the synoptic weather system, is about 3-12 h later. It is noted that the increase of PM10 level at the western side of Taiwan results from a mixture of upstream Asian dust inputs and local pollutants.

Satellite microwave observations of a storm complex: A comparative analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, D. W.

1985-01-01

The hypothesis that cold events correspond to a particular stage in a class of thunderstorms was tested. That class is a storms class which updrafts are: (1) strong, broad and moist, and (2) extend well above the freezing level. Condition (1) implies strong mesoscale forcing. Condition (2) implies a tall updraft or a relatively low freezing level. Such storms should have big, intense radar echoes and cold, fast-growing anvils. The thunderstorm events were analyzed by radar, rain gauge and GOES infrared observations. Radar was the starting point for detection and definition of the hypothesized thunderstorms. The radar signature is compared to the signature of the storm in rain gauge observations, satellite infrared images and satellite microwave images.

Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

2015-12-01

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

Great Lakes Region Morphology and Impacts of March 17, 2015 SED Geomagnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heine, T.; Moldwin, M.; Zou, S.

2015-12-01

Under quiet geomagnetic conditions, the mid-latitude ionosphere is relatively uniform with little spatial variation in electron density. However, during intense geomagnetic storms, density gradients associated with Storm Enhanced Density (SED) plumes and Sub-auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) can move across the dayside mid-latitude ionosphere producing small spatial scale density structure that may be connected to ionospheric scintillation. The evolution of the SED plume during the March 17, 2015 "St. Patrick's Day Storm" is investigated using aggregated data from high resolution GPS receivers at the University of Michigan and throughout the Great Lakes region. Structural density features in the SED gradient can be observed and compared to GPS scintillation measurements—providing insight into the physical mechanisms behind ionospheric scintillation.

Storm surges formation in the White and Barents Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav

2016-04-01

Investigation of storm surges in the Arctic seas are of high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the safety of navigation. It is important to study the variability of surges, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. Surges in the White and Barents Seas are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and western. The average height of the storm surges in the White Sea is 0.6-0.9 m. An average duration of storm surges is about 80 hours. Mathematical modeling is used to analyze the characteristics of storm surges formation in the Dvina Bay of the White Sea, and in the Varandey village on the Barents Sea coast. Calculating storm surge heights in the White and Barents seas is performed using the ADCIRC model on an unstructured grid with a step from 20 km in the Barents Sea to 100 m in the White Sea. Unstructured grids allowed keeping small features of the coastline of the White and Barents seas, small islands and shallow banks, and assessing their impact on the development and transformation of wind-generated waves. The ADCIRC model used data of wind field reanalysis CFSv2. The storm surges were simulated for the time period from 1979 to 2010 and included scenarios with / without direct atmospheric pressure forcing, waves and tides. Numerical experiments have revealed distribution of storm surges in channels of the Northern Dvina River delta. The storm surges spreads in the model from the north-north-west of the Dvina Bay. As storm surge moves from the wellhead to the seaside estuary of the Northern Dvina (district Solombala), its height increases from 0.5 to 2 m. We also found a non-linear interaction of the surge and tide during the phase of surge destruction. This phenomenon is the highest in the period of low water, and the smallest in the period full of water. Analysis of storm surges in the Varandey village (the southern part of the Barents Sea) showed that the maximum height of storm surge reached 2.9 m in this region in July, 2010. The work performed was supported by the RSCF (grant № 14-37-00038)

Association of time of occurrence of electrical heart storms with environmental physical activity.

PubMed

Stoupel, Eliiyahu; Kusniec, Jairo; Golovchiner, Gregory; Abramson, Evgeny; Kadmon, Udi; Strasberg, Boris

2014-08-01

Many publications in recent decades have reported a temporal link between medical events and environmental physical activity. The aim of this study was to analyze the time of occurrence of electrical heart storms against levels of cosmological parameters. The sample included 82 patients (71 male) with ischemic cardiomyopathy treated with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator at a tertiary medical center in 1999-2012 (5,114 days). The time of occurrence of all electrical heart storms, defined as three or more events of ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation daily, was recorded from the defibrillator devices. Findings were analyzed against data on solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray (neutron) activity for the same time period obtained from space institutions in the United States and Russia. Electrical storms occurred in all months of the year, with a slight decrease in July, August, and September. Most events took place on days with lower-than-average levels of solar and geomagnetic activity and higher-than-average levels of cosmic ray (neutron) activity. There was a significant difference in mean daily cosmic ray activity between the whole observation period and the days of electrical storm activity (P = 0.0001). These data extend earlier findings on the association of the timing of cardiac events and space weather parameters to the most dangerous form of cardiac arrhythmia-electric storms. Further studies are needed to delineate the pathogenetic mechanism underlying this association. ©2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ionospheric response to geomagnetic storm on July 14-17, 2012 in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanova, Elena; Zherebtsov, Gelii; Wang, Guojun; Zolotukhina, Nina; Polekh, Nelya; Wang, Xiao; Shi, Jiankui

We study manifestation of intense geomagnetic storm on July 14-17, 2012 in the ionosphere high, middle and low latitudes. The peculiarity of the storm is that for nearly 30 hours the IMF Bz had southward direction (-20 ÷ -10 nT). We use data from the chains of stations located near the meridians 90E, 110E and 150E. The critical frequency (foF2) variation analysis showed that during the storm main phase the ionosphere response depends strongly on the local time of the sudden storm commencement so the negative perturbations were observed near the meridian 90E and positive perturbations were observed near the meridian 150E. At the end of the storm main phase the traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were observed at all stations. The critical frequencies were extremely low during the storm recovery phase on July 16, 2012 at all stations and this phase lasted nearly three days. At the low-latitude station Hainan (19.5N, 109E) on July 16, 2012 the day foF2 values were the same as the night values. This intense and prolonged negative perturbation is a very rare event at low latitudes. Since prolonged negative disturbance is usually associated with a decrease in the ratio of concentration of atomic oxygen to that of molecular nitrogen [O]/[N2] which is transported by the disturbed thermospheric wind from auroral latitudes to middle and low, then we analyzed measuring [O]/[N2] (Global Ultraviolet Imager, http://guvi.jhuapl.edu/site/gallery/guvi-galleryl3on2.shtml). It found out that feature of the studied storm is very low values of [O]/[N2] which were observed on July 16 in the longitudinal sector 60 - 150E from high latitude almost to the equator. Modeling results of the ionospheric response to this storm are also presented. At low-latitudes the extreme low values of [O]/[N2] also can be one of the reasons of the prolonged negative disturbance. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 13-05-91159) and RF President Grant of Public Support for RF Leading Scientific Schools (NSh-2942.2014.5).

Impacts of ionospheric electric fields on the GPS tropospheric delays during geomagnetic storms in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suparta, W.

2017-05-01

This paper aimed to overview the interaction of the thunderstorm with the ionospheric electric fields during major geomagnetic storms in Antarctica through the GPS tropospheric delays. For the purpose of study, geomagnetic activity and electric fields data for the period from 13 to 21 March 2015 representing the St. Patrick’s Day storm is analyzed. To strengthen the analysis, data for the period of 27 October to 1st November 2003 representing for the Halloween storm is also compared. Our analysis showed that both geomagnetic storms were severe (Ap ≥ 100 nT), where the intensity of Halloween storm is double compared to St. Patrick’s Day storm. For the ionospheric electric field, the peaks were dropped to -1.63 mV/m and -2.564 mV/m for St. Patrick and Halloween storms, respectively. At this time, the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was significantly dropped to -17.31 nT with Ap > 150 nT (17 March 2015 at 19:20 UT) and -26.51 nT with Ap = 300 nT (29 October 2003 at 19:40 UT). For both geomagnetic storms, the electric field was correlated well with the ionospheric activity where tropospheric delays show a different characteristic.

[First flush effects of storm events of Baoxiang River in Lake Dianchi Watershed].

PubMed

Guo, Huai-Cheng; Xiang, Nan; Zhou, Feng; Wang, Yong-Hua; Li, Fa-Rong; Zhu, Xiang; Mao, Guo-Zhu; Yu, Shu-Xia; Li, Na; Sheng, Hu; Yang, Yong-Hui; He, Cheng-Jie; Wang, Cui-Yu

2013-04-01

To understand riverine process of non-point source effectively, first flush effects of storm events were investigated at Baoxiang River of Lake Dianchi Watershed. Three sampling stations were selected along Baoxiang River for observing the flow rate and pollutant concentrations of the first three storm events from June 2009 to August 2009. Net discharged volume, net discharged loading, and net event mean concentration (EMC(n)) were proposed with their calculation methods. According to the analysis of three storm events at three stations, the following results colcd be extracted: (1) the larger the percent of impervious land and population density were, the higher EMC(n) of TSS, TN, TP, permanganate index and their cumulative curves [M(V)] were along the river; (2) TSS, TP loadings as well as their M (V) were positively correlated to the storm intensity, while TN and permanganate index loadings were consistent with the total rainfall of each storm event, where the percent of NO3(-) -N in total nitrogen decreased gradually when the number of storm events increased; (3) compared to tradition EMC, EMC(n) was proven to be a better indicator to accurately uncover and magnify the differences in first flush effects of storm events among different stations or storm events.

Modeling Earth's Ring Current Using The CIMI Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craven, J. D., II; Perez, J. D.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. C. H.

2015-12-01

Earth's ring current is a result of the injection of charged particles trapped in the magnetosphere from solar storms. The enhancement of the ring current particles produces magnetic depressions and disturbances to the Earth's magnetic field known as geomagnetic storms, which have been modeled using the comprehensive inner magnetosphere-ionosphere (CIMI) model. The purpose of this model is to identify and understand the physical processes that control the dynamics of the geomagnetic storms. The basic procedure was to use the CIMI model for the simulation of 15 storms since 2009. Some of the storms were run multiple times, but with varying parameters relating to the dynamics of the Earth's magnetic field, particle fluxes, and boundary conditions of the inner-magnetosphere. Results and images were placed in the TWINS online catalog page for further analysis and discussion. Particular areas of interest were extreme storm events. A majority of storms simulated had average DST values of -100 nT; these extreme storms exceeded DST values of -200 nT. The continued use of the CIMI model will increase knowledge of the interactions and processes of the inner-magnetosphere as well as lead to a better understanding of extreme solar storm events for the future advancement of space weather physics.

New Science Enabled by the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackwell, W. J.; Braun, S. A.; Bennartz, R.; Velden, C.; Demaria, M.; Atlas, R. M.; Dunion, J. P.; Marks, F.; Rogers, R. F.; Annane, B.

2017-12-01

Recent technology advances in miniature microwave radiometers that can be hosted on very small satellites has made possible a new class of affordable constellation missions that provide very high revisit rates of tropical cyclones and other severe weather. The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3) program and is now in development with planned launch readiness in late 2019. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones, including: (1) relationships of rapidly evolving precipitation and upper cloud structures to upper-level warm-core intensity and associated storm intensity changes; (2) the evolution of precipitation structure and storm intensification in relationship to environmental humidity fields; and (3) the impact of rapid-update observations on numerical and statistical intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones. TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm lifecycle. TROPICS comprises a constellation of six CubeSats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using 3 channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 206 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for tropical cyclones on a nearly global scale.

An Extensive Study on Dynamical aspects of Dust Storm over the United Arab Emirates during 18-20 March 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Phanikumar, Devulapalli V.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2015-04-01

On 18 March 2012, a super dust storm event occurred over Middle East (ME) and lasted for several hours. Following to this, another dust storm occurred on early morning of 20 March 2012 with almost higher intensity. Both these storms reduced the horizontal visibility to few hundreds of meters and represented as one of the most intense and long duration dust storms over United Arab Emirates (UAE) in recent times. These storms also reduced the air quality in most parts of the ME implying the shutdown of Airports, schools and hundreds of people were hospitalized with respirational problems. In the context of the above, we have made a detailed study on the dynamical processes leading to triggering of dust storm over UAE and neighboring regions. We have also analyzed its impact on surface, and vertical profiles of background parameters and aerosols during the dust storm period by using ground-based, space borne, dust forecasting model, and reanalysis data sets. The synoptic and dynamic conditions responsible for the occurrence of the dust storm are discussed extensively by using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim reanalysis data sets. The Impact of dust storm on surface and upper air radiosonde measurements and aerosol optical properties are also investigated before, during and after the dust storm event. During the dust storm, surface temperature decreased by 15oC when compared to before and after the event. PM10 values significantly increased maximum of about 1600µg/m3. Spatial variation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) exhibited very high values during the event and source region can be identified of dust transport to our region with this figure. The total attenuated backscatter at 550nm from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite shows the vertical extent of dust up to 8km. The dynamics of this event is related to coupling of subtropical jet and polar jet over the Saudi Arabia region, which leads to massive dust storm generation and dust transport through Rub-Al-Khali, and Persian Gulf over the UAE region. AOD from ground based measurements showed fourfold increase from 0.2 to 1.8 during the event implying an atmospheric forcing of ~ 150 Wm-2. In addition, vertical profile of heating rate showed heating of ~1.5 K/day at 3-4 km during the event. In the view of the above, the present event is discussed in the light of current understanding of dust storm aerosol optical and physical processes and associated dynamics over UAE region.

Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate.

PubMed

Blankespoor, Brian; Dasgupta, Susmita; Lange, Glenn-Marie

2017-05-01

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10  % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233  %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.

Space Weather Research in the Equatorial Region: A Philosophical Reinforcement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chukwuma, Victor; Odunaike, Rasaki; Laoye, John

Investigations using radio waves reflected from the ionosphere, at high-and mid-latitudes indicate that ionospheric absorption can strongly increase following geomagnetic storms; which appears to suggest some definite relationship between ionospheric radio wave absorption and geomagnetic storms at these latitudes. However, corresponding earlier studies in the equatorial region did not appear to show any explicit relationship between ionospheric radio wave absorption and geomagnetic storm activity. This position appeared acceptable to the existing scientific paradigm, until in an act of paradigm shift, by a change of storm selection criteria, some more recent space weather investigations in the low latitudes showed that ionospheric radio wave absorption in the equatorial region clearly increases after intense storms. Given that these results in the equatorial region stood against the earlier results, this paper presently attempts to highlight their philosophical underpinning and posit that they constitute a scientific statement.

Accelerating Dust Storm Simulation by Balancing Task Allocation in Parallel Computing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gui, Z.; Yang, C.; XIA, J.; Huang, Q.; YU, M.

2013-12-01

Dust storm has serious negative impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The continuing global climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of dust storm in the past decades. To better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storm, a series of dust storm models have been developed, such as Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM), the NMM meteorological module (NMM-dust) and Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment for Dust (CUACE/Dust). The developments and applications of these models have contributed significantly to both scientific research and our daily life. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. Normally, a simulation for a single dust storm event may take several days or hours to run. It seriously impacts the timeliness of prediction and potential applications. To speed up the process, high performance computing is widely adopted. By partitioning a large study area into small subdomains according to their geographic location and executing them on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion, the computing performance can be significantly improved. Since spatiotemporal correlations exist in the geophysical process of dust storm simulation, each subdomain allocated to a node need to communicate with other geographically adjacent subdomains to exchange data. Inappropriate allocations may introduce imbalance task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, task allocation method is the key factor, which may impact the feasibility of the paralleling. The allocation algorithm needs to carefully leverage the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire system. This presentation introduces two algorithms for such allocation and compares them with evenly distributed allocation method. Specifically, 1) In order to get optimized solutions, a quadratic programming based modeling method is proposed. This algorithm performs well with small amount of computing tasks. However, its efficiency decreases significantly as the subdomain number and computing node number increase. 2) To compensate performance decreasing for large scale tasks, a K-Means clustering based algorithm is introduced. Instead of dedicating to get optimized solutions, this method can get relatively good feasible solutions within acceptable time. However, it may introduce imbalance communication for nodes or node-isolated subdomains. This research shows both two algorithms have their own strength and weakness for task allocation. A combination of the two algorithms is under study to obtain a better performance. Keywords: Scheduling; Parallel Computing; Load Balance; Optimization; Cost Model

Energy and Mass Transport of Magnetospheric Plasmas during the November 2003 Magnetic Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Chging; Moore, Thomas

2008-01-01

Intensive energy and mass transport from the solar wind across the magnetosphere boundary is a trigger of magnetic storms. The storm on 20-21 November 2003 was elicited by a high-speed solar wind and strong southward component of interplanetary magnetic field. This storm attained a minimum Dst of -422 nT. During the storm, some of the solar wind particles enter the magnetosphere and eventually become part of the ring current. At the same time, the fierce solar wind powers strong outflow of H+ and O+ from the ionosphere, as well as from the plasmasphere. We examine the contribution of plasmas from the solar wind, ionosphere and plasmasphere to the storm-time ring current. Our simulation shows, for this particular storm, ionospheric O+ and solar wind ions are the major sources of the ring current particles. The polar wind and plasmaspheric H+ have only minor impacts. In the storm main phase, the strong penetration of solar wind electric field pushes ions from the geosynchronous orbit to L shells of 2 and below. Ring current is greatly intensified during the earthward transport and produces a large magnetic depression in the surface field. When the convection subsides, the deep penetrating ions experience strong charge exchange loss, causing rapid decay of the ring current and fast initial storm recovery. Our simulation reproduces very well the storm development indicated by the Dst index.

Comment on "Modeling Extreme "Carrington-Type" Space Weather Events Using Three-Dimensional Global MHD Simulations" by C. M. Ngwira, A. Pulkkinen, M. M. Kuznetsova, and A. Glocer"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Lakhina, Gurbax S.; Echer, Ezequiel; Hajra, Rajkumar; Nayak, Chinmaya; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Meng, Xing

2018-02-01

An alternative scenario to the Ngwira et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JA019661) high sheath densities is proposed for modeling the Carrington magnetic storm. Typical slow solar wind densities ( 5 cm-3) and lower interplanetary magnetic cloud magnetic field intensities ( 90 nT) can be used to explain the observed initial and main phase storm features. A second point is that the fast storm recovery may be explained by ring current losses due to electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave scattering.

Storm intensity and old-growth forest disturbances in the Amazon region

Treesearch

F.D.B. Espírito-Santo; M. Keller; B. Braswell; B.W. Nelson; S. Frolking; G. Vicente

2010-01-01

We analyzed the pattern of large forest disturbances or blow‐downs apparently caused by severe storms in a mostly unmanaged portion of the Brazilian Amazon using 27 Landsat images and daily precipitation estimates from NOAA satellite data. For each Landsat a spectral mixture analysis (SMA) was applied. Based on SMA, we detected and mapped 279 patches (from 5 ha to 2,...

Two Perspectives on Keith

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Tropical storm Keith was born on Sept. 29 in the Caribbean, off the east coast of Honduras, and reached hurricane Category 3 intensity (winds in excess of 111 miles per hour) on Oct. 1. Hurricane Keith made landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and northeastern Belize on Oct. 2, packing winds as high as 135 miles per hour and a storm surge of up to 6 feet above normal tide levels. Although the storm quickly weakened in intensity to a tropical storm (65 miles per hour), it moved slowly inland and dumped large amounts of rain on the region--exceeding 15 inches in some areas within a 24-hour period. Authorities in the area are warning residents of the potential for flooding and mudslides. NASA and NOAA satellites captured images of Hurricane Keith on Oct. 2 shortly after it made landfall. The image on the left is a combination of NOAA GOES and NASA QuikScat data superimposed. The white cloud structure was produced using GOES data, while the colored arrows showing wind speed and direction were created using QuikScat data. Red and purple arrows show winds as high as 25 meters per second (56 miles per hour). (Note that QuikScat only measures winds over the ocean; units are given in meters per second.) The image on the right was created using data from the Microwave Imager (TMI) aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). That sensor has the ability to peer within a storm and detect rainfall, seen here as red and green blobs. The red blobs show higher rainfall rates (up to 2 inches per hour), and greens show lower rainfall rates (1 inch per hour). Scientists are using data from these sensors to study how hurricane form, and grow and diminish in intensity during their lifetimes. For more information, see Hurricanes: The Greatest Storms on Earth. QuikScat image by William Daffer, courtesy of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory TRMM image by Tom Bridgman, Goddard SVS; data courtesy TRMM Science Team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

The Locations of Ring Current Pressure Peaks: Comparison of TWINS Measurements and CIMI Simulations for the 7-10 September 2015 CIR Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, S. C.; Edmond, J. A.; Xu, H.; Perez, J. D.; Fok, M. C. H.; Goldstein, J.; McComas, D. J.; Valek, P. W.

2017-12-01

The characteristics of a four day 7-10 September 2015 co-rotating interaction region (CIR) storm (min. SYM/H ≤ -110 nT) are categorized by storm phase. Ion distributions of trapped particles in the ring current as measured by the Two Wide-Angle Imaging Neutral Atom Spectrometers (TWINS) are compared with the simulated ion distributions of the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Model (CIMI). The energetic neutral atom (ENA) images obtained by TWINS are deconvolved to extract equatorial pitch angle, energy spectra, ion pressure intensity, and ion pressure anisotropy distributions in the inner magnetosphere. CIMI, using either a self-consistent electric field or a semi-empirical electric field, simulates comparable distributions. There is good agreement between the data measured by TWINS and the different distributions produced by the self-consistent electric field and the semi-empirical electric field of CIMI. Throughout the storm the pitch angle distribution (PAD) is mostly perpendicular in both CIMI and TWINS and there is agreement between the anisotropy distributions. The locations of the ion pressure peaks seen by TWINS and by the self-consistent and semi empirical electric field parameters in CIMI are usually between dusk and midnight. On average, the self-consistent electric field in CIMI reveals ion pressure peaks closer to Earth than its semi empirical counterpart, while TWINS reports somewhat larger radial values for the ion pressure peak locations. There are also notable events throughout the storm during which the simulated observations show some characteristics that differ from those measured by TWINS. At times, there are ion pressure peaks with magnetic local time on the dayside and in the midnight to dawn region. We discuss these events in light of substorm injections indicated by fluctuating peaks in the AE index and a positive By component in the solar wind. There are also times in which there are multiple ion pressure peaks. This may imply that there are time dependent and spatially dependent injection events that are influenced by local reconnection regions in the tail of the magnetosphere. Using CIMI simulations, we present paths of particles with various energies to assist in interpreting these notable events.

Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

2012-12-01

During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have based on their track and other characteristics. Prat, O.P., and B.R. Nelson, 2012. J. Climate. Conditionally Accepted. Westerink, J., R. Luettich, J. Feyen, et al, 2008. Month. Weather Rev., 136, 833-864.

Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

2012-06-01

A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

Factors affecting large peakflows on Appalachian watersheds: lessons from the Fernow Experimental Forest

Treesearch

James N. Kochenderfer; Mary Beth Adams; Gary W. Miller; David J. Helvey

2007-01-01

Data collected since 1951 on the Fernow Experimental Forest near Parsons, West Virginia, and at a gaging station on the nearby Cheat River since 1913 were used to evaluate factors affecting large peakflows on forested watersheds. Treatments ranged from periodic partial cuts to complete deforestation using herbicides. Total storm precipitation and average storm...

High-resolution monitoring of stormwater quality in an urbanising catchment in the United Kingdom during the 2013/2014 winter storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrane, S. J.; Hutchins, M. G.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Miller, J. D.; Bussi, G.; Loewenthal, M.

2015-12-01

Urban areas are widely recognised as a key source of contaminants entering our freshwater systems, yet in spite of this, our understanding of stormwater quality dynamics remains limited. The development of in-situ, high-resolution monitoring equipment has revolutionised our capability to capture flow and water quality data at a sub-hourly resolution, enabling us to potentially enhance our understanding of hydrochemical variations from contrasting landscapes during storm events. During the winter of 2013/2014, the United Kingdom experienced a succession of intense storm events, where the south of the country experienced 200% of the average rainfall, resulting in widespread flooding across the Thames basin. We applied high-frequency (15 minute resolution) water quality monitoring across ten contrasting subcatchments (including rural, urban and mixed land-use catchments), seeking to classify the disparity in water quality conditions both within- and between events. Rural catchments increasingly behave like "urban" catchments as soils wet up and become increasingly responsive to subsequent events, however water quality response during the winter months remains limited. By contrast, increasingly urban catchments yield greater contaminant loads during events, and pre-event baseline chemistry highlights a resupply source in dense urban catchments. Wastewater treatment plants were shown to dominate baseline chemistry during low-flow events but also yield a considerable impact on stormwater outputs during peak-flow events, as hydraulic push results in the outflow of untreated solid wastes into the river system. Results are discussed in the context of water quality policy; urban growth scenarios and BMP for stormwater runoff in contrasting landscapes.

Raindrop Characteristics in the Pacific Northwest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The U.S. Pacific Northwest, influenced by maritime air masses for most of the year, generally exhibits low rainfall intensities. The drop-size characteristics of such low-intensity storms are rarely studied. An investigation of natural drop sizes and their distribution was conducted at the Palouse ...

Lightning Evolution In Two North Central Florida Summer Multicell Storms and Three Winter/Spring Frontal Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.

2018-01-01

We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.

Extreme EEJ and Topside Ionospheric Response to the 22-23 June 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astafyeva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.; Alken, P.; Coisson, P.

2016-12-01

In this work, we study the ionospheric and thermospheric response to the intense geomagnetic storm of 22-23 June 2015. With the minimum SYM-H excursion of -207 nT, this storm is so far the 2nd strongest geomagnetic storm in the current 24th solar cycle. The storm started with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection at 18:37UT on 22 June 2015. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component changed polarity several times during this storm. Consequently, the interplanetary electric field Ey component repeated this oscillatory behavior, and varied from -15 to +20 mV/m, which is comparable with storm-time levels. Data from multiple ground-based and space-borne instruments showed that both positive and negative ionospheric storms occurred during this storm at middle and low latitudes on both day and night sides. To study the drivers of the observed ionospheric effects, we further analyze variations of thermospheric parameters (neutral mass density and thermospheric O/N2 ratio), as well as the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) data as retrieved from magnetic measurements onboard Swarm satellites. One of the most interesting features of the June 2015 storm is observation of extremely high EEJ values (both eastward and westward), that correlate with variations of the IEF Ey. We find that the storm-time penetration electric fields were, most likely, the main driver of the observed ionospheric effects at the initial phase of the storm, and at the beginning of the main phase. At the end of the main phase, the thermospheric composition changes seemed to contribute as well.

Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

An examination of extratropical cyclone response to changes in baroclinicity and temperature in an idealized environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, Gregory; Posselt, Derek J.; Booth, James F.

2018-02-01

The dynamics and precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are known to be sensitive to changes in the cyclone environment, with increases in bulk water vapor and baroclinicity both leading to increases in storm strength and precipitation. Studies that demonstrate this sensitivity have commonly varied either the cyclone moisture or baroclinicity, but seldom both. In a changing climate, in which the near-surface equator to pole temperature gradient may weaken while the bulk water vapor content of the atmosphere increases, it is important to understand the relative response of ETC strength and precipitation to changes in both factors simultaneously. In this study, idealized simulations of ETC development are conducted in a moist environment using a model with a full suite of moist physics parameterizations. The bulk temperature (and water vapor content) and baroclinicity are systematically varied one at a time, then simultaneously, and the effect of these variations on the storm strength and precipitation is assessed. ETC intensity exhibits the well-documented response to changes in baroclinicity, with stronger ETCs forming in higher baroclinicity environments. However, increasing water vapor content produces non-monotonic changes in storm strength, in which storm intensity first increases with increasing environmental water vapor, then decreases above a threshold value. Examination of the storm geographic extent indicates cyclone size also decreases above a threshold value of bulk environmental temperature (and water vapor). Decrease in storm size is concomitant with an increase in the convective fraction of precipitation and a shift in the vertical distribution of latent heating. The results indicate the existence of at least two regimes for ETC development, each of which exhibit significantly different distributions of PV due to differences in timing and location of convective heating.

State-shifting at the edge of resilience: River suspended sediment responses to land use change and extreme storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, Samantha; Julian, Jason P.; Kamarinas, Ioannis; Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Fuller, Ian C.; McColl, Samuel T.; Dymond, John R.

2018-03-01

The interaction of climate, geomorphology, and land use dictates catchment sediment production and associated river sediment loads. Accordingly, the resilience of catchments to disturbances can be assessed with suspended sediment regimes. This case study in the hill country of the lower North Island of New Zealand was a decade-long examination of the short- and long-term effects of an extreme storm event on sediment supply and exhaustion in the Oroua and Pohangina catchments, two catchments that have experienced intense land use changes and frequent broad-scale landslides. Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, a program developed to characterize hydrologic regimes, was used to analyze daily suspended sediment records over a period of a decade in order to characterize sediment regimes of the Oroua and Pohangina. An aggregated data set of sediment-bearing events for the period of record was analyzed to examine the suspended sediment response of individual storms relative to runoff magnitudes. The findings of this study demonstrate that large storms that generate extreme landsliding and flooding have the ability to produce enough sediment to temporarily convert catchments from a supply-limited state to a transport-limited state. Landsliding and thus sediment supply was disproportionately high in locations where livestock grazing occurred on steep hillslopes. The timing and intensity of previous storms, or the antecedent catchment condition, was also shown to influence the response of the catchments. In both catchments, suspended sediment loads were elevated for a period of 4 years following the landslide-generating February 2004 storm. The methods and findings we present are useful for assessing the resilience of catchments exposed to frequent disturbances such as land use changes and landslides.

Evaluation and development of satellite inferences of convective storm intensity using combined case study analysis and thunderstorm model simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, W. R.; Tripoli, G. J.

1980-01-01

Major research accomplishments which were achieved during the first year of the grant are summarized. The research concentrated in the following areas: (1) an examination of observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments; (2) interpretation of recent 3D numerical experiments with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts; (3) the development of software for emulating satellite-inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data; and (4) the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

Capacities of template-type platforms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane Andrew

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bea, R.G.; Loch, K.J.; Young, P.L.

1997-02-01

This paper details results from nonlinear analyses of the ultimate limit state performance characteristics of four Gulf of Mexico (GOM) platforms subjected to intense loadings from hurricane Andrew. These four platforms were located to the east of the track of hurricane Andrew, and were thus in the most intense portion of the storm (Smith, 1993). The nonlinear analyses are able to replicate details of the observed behavior of the four structures. This replication is very dependent on realistic characterization of the performance characteristics of the pile foundations and on accurate information on the as is condition of the platforms beforemore » the storm.« less

Relationships between convective storms and their environment in AVE IV determined from a three-dimensional subsynoptic-scale, trajectory model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.

1977-01-01

The paper describes interrelationships between synoptic-scale and convective-scale systems obtained by following individual air parcels as they traveled within the convective storm environment of AVE IV. (NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment, AVE IV, was a 36-hour study in April 1975 of the atmospheric variability and structure in regions of convective storms.) A three-dimensional trajectory model was used to calculate parcel paths, and manually digitized radar was employed to locate convective activity of various intensities and to determine those trajectories that traversed the storm environment. Spatial and temporal interrelationships are demonstrated by reference to selected time periods of AVE IV which contain the development and movement of the squall line in which the Neosho tornado was created.

The role of the equivalent blackbody temperature in the study of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steranka, J.; Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

1983-01-01

Satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones are used to investigate their role in describing the convection and cloud patterns of the storms and in predicting wind intensity. The high temporal resolution of the equivalent blackbody temperature measurements afforded with the geosynchronous satellite provided sequential quantitative measurements of the tropical cyclone which reveal a diurnal pattern of convection at the inner core during the early developmental stage; a diurnal pattern of cloudiness in the storm's outer circulation throughout the life cycle; a semidiurnal pattern of cloudiness in the environmental atmosphere surrounding the storms during the weak storm stage; an outward modulating atmospheric wave originating at the inner core; and long term convective bursts at the inner core prior to wind intensification.

Diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads in precipitation and urban and agricultural storm runoff during January and February 2001 in the San Joaquin River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zamora, Celia; Kratzer, Charles R.; Majewski, Michael S.; Knifong, Donna L.

2003-01-01

The application of diazinon and chlorpyrifos on dormant orchards in 2001 in the San Joaquin River Basin was 24 percent less and 3.2 times more than applications in 2000, respectively. A total of 16 sites were sampled during January and February 2001 storm events: 7 river sites, 8 precipitation sites, and 1 urban storm drain. The seven river sites were sampled weekly during nonstorm periods and more frequently during storm runoff from a total of four storms. The monitoring of storm runoff at a city storm drain in Modesto, California, occurred simultaneously with the collection of precipitation samples from eight sites during a January 2001 storm event. The highest concentrations of diazinon occurred during the storm periods for all 16 sites, and the highest concentrations of chlorpyrifos occurred during weekly nonstorm sampling for the river sites and during the January storm period for the urban storm drain and precipitation sites. A total of 60 samples (41 from river sites, 10 from precipitation sites, and 9 from the storm drain site) had diazinon concentrations greater than 0.08 ?g/L, the concentration being considered by the California Department of Fish and Game as its criterion maximum concentration for the protection of aquatic habitats. A total of 18 samples (2 from river sites, 9 from precipitation sites, and 7 from the storm drain site) exceeded the equivalent California Department of Fish and Game guideline of 0.02 ?g/L for chlorpyrifos. The total diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2001 was 23.8 pounds active ingredient; of this amount, 16.9 pounds active ingredient were transported by four storms, 1.06 pounds active ingredient were transported by nonstorm events, and 5.82 pounds active ingredient were considered to be baseline loads. The total chlorpyrifos load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2001 was 2.17 pounds active ingredient; of this amount, 0.702 pound active ingredient was transported during the four storms, and 1.47 pounds active ingredient were considered as baseline load. The total January and February diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis was 0.27 percent of dormant application; the total January and February chlorpyrifos load was 0.02 percent of dormant application. The precipitation samples collected during the January 2001 storm event were analyzed for pesticides to evaluate their potential contribution to pesticide loads in the study area. When the average concentrations of diazinon and chlorpyrifos in the precipitation samples were compared with concentrations in urban storm runoff samples, 68 percent of the diazinon concentration in the runoff could be accounted for in the precipitation. Chlorpyrifos, however, had average precipitation concentrations that were 2.5 times higher than what was detected in the runoff. Although no firm conclusions can be made from one storm event, preliminary results indicate that pesticides in precipitation can significantly contribute to pesticide loads in storm runoff.

The role of suspension events in cross-shore and longshore suspended sediment transport in the surf zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

Suspension of sand in the surf zone is intermittent. Especially striking in a time series of concentration are periods of intense suspension, suspension events, when the water column suspended sediment concentration is an order of magnitude greater than the mean concentration. The prevalence, timing, and contribution of suspension events to cross-shore and longshore suspended sediment transport are explored using field data collected in the inner half of the surf zone during a large storm at Duck, NC. Suspension events are defined as periods when the concentration is above a threshold. Events tended to occur during onshore flow under the wave crest, resulting in an onshore contribution to the suspended sediment transport. Even though large events occurred less than 10 percent of the total time, at some locations onshore transport associated with suspension events was greater than mean-current driven offshore-directed transport during non-event periods, causing the net suspended sediment transport to be onshore. Events and fluctuations in longshore velocity were not correlated. However, events did increase the longshore suspended sediment transport by approximately the amount they increase the mean concentration, which can be up to 35%. Because of the lack of correlation, the longshore suspended sediment transport can be modeled without considering the details of the intensity and time of events as the vertical integration of the product of the time-averaged longshore velocity and an event-augmented time-averaged concentration. However, to accurately model cross-shore suspended sediment transport, the timing and intensity of suspension events must be reproduced.

Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

2014-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Buechler, Dennis; Goodman, Steven J.

1999-01-01

It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

Tropical Storm Lowell Becomes 7th Eastern Pacific Hurricane

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-08-21

NOAA's GOES-West satellite watched as Tropical Storm Lowell strengthened into a large hurricane during the morning of August 21 and opened its eye. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The storm stretches over a greater distance. Lowell became the seventh hurricane of the Eastern Pacific Ocean season today, August 21 at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC). Maximum sustained winds had increased to 75 mph (120 kph) making Lowell a Category One hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) today, and NHC forecasters expect a slow weakening trend later today through August 22. It was centered near latitude 20.0 north and longitude 122.1 west, about 810 miles (1,300 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. It is moving to the northwest near 3 mph (4 kph) and is expected to move faster in that direction over the next two days. The NHC said that Lowell should begin to slowly weaken by August 22 as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin down. The GOES-West image of Lowell was created at the NASA/NOAA GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, C. A.; Wang, W.; Ahijevych, D.

2017-12-01

In recent years, global prediction and climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, we examine the how well these models treat tropical cyclone intensity, measured from several different perspectives. The models evaluated include the operational Global Forecast System, with a grid spacing of about 13 km, and the Model for Prediction Across Scales, with a variable resolution of 15 km over the Northwest Pacific transitioning to 60 km elsewhere. We focus on the Northwest Pacific for the period July-October, 2016. Results indicate that discrimination of tropical cyclone intensity is reasonably good up to roughly category 3 storms. The models are able to capture storms of category 4 intensity, but still exhibit a negative intensity bias of 20-30 knots at lead times beyond 5 days. This is partly indicative of the large number of super-typhoons that occurred in 2016. The question arises of how well global models should represent intensity, given that it is unreasonable for them to depict the inner core of many intense tropical cyclones with a grid increment of 13-15 km. We compute an expected "best-case" prediction of intensity based on filtering the observed wind profiles of Atlantic tropical cyclones according to different hypothetical model resolutions. The Atlantic is used because of the significant number of reconnaissance missions and more reliable estimate of wind radii. Results indicate that, even under the most optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of 1/4 degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, models with a grid spacing of 1/4 degree or greater are unlikely to systematically discriminate hurricanes with differing intensity. Finally, for simple wind profiles, it is shown how an accurate representation of maximum wind on a coarse grid will lead to an overestimate of horizontally integrated kinetic energy by a factor of two or more.

Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.

Multi-scale variability of storm Ophelia 2017: The importance of synchronised environmental variables in coastal impact.

PubMed

Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek W T

2018-07-15

Low frequency, high magnitude storm events can dramatically alter coastlines, helping to relocate large volumes of sediments and changing the configuration of landforms. Increases in the number of intense cyclones occurring in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1970s is evident with more northward tracking patterns developing. This brings added potential risk to coastal environments and infrastructure in northwest Europe and therefore understanding how these high-energy storms impact sandy coasts in particular is important for future management. This study highlights the evolution of Storm (formally Hurricane) Ophelia in October 2017 as it passed up and along the western seaboard of Ireland. The largest ever recorded Hurricane to form in the eastern Atlantic, we describe, using a range of environmental measurements and wave modelling, its track and intensity over its duration whilst over Ireland. The impact on a stretch of sandy coast in NW Ireland during Storm Ophelia, when the winds were at their peak, is examined using terrestrial laser scanning surveys pre- and post-storm to describe local changes of intertidal and dune edge dynamics. During maximum wind conditions (>35 knots) waves no >2m were recorded with an oblique to parallel orientation and coincident with medium to low tide (around 0.8m). Therefore, we demonstrate that anticipated widespread coastal erosion and damage may not always unfold as predicted. In fact, around 6000m 3 of net erosion occurred along the 420m stretch of coastline with maximum differences in beach topographic changes of 0.8m. The majority of the sediment redistribution occurred within the intertidal and lower beach zone with some limited dune trimming in the southern section (10% of the total erosion). Asynchronous high water (tide levels), localised offshore winds as well as coastline orientation relative to the storm winds and waves plays a significant role in reducing coastal erosional impact. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The radioactivity of seasonal dust storms in the Middle East: the May 2012 case study in Jordan.

PubMed

Hamadneh, Hamed S; Ababneh, Zaid Q; Hamasha, Khadeejeh M; Ababneh, Anas M

2015-02-01

Dust storms in the Middle East are common during spring. Some of these storms are massive and carry a large amount of dust from faraway regions, which pose health and pollution risks. The huge dust storm event occurred in early May, 2012 was investigated for its radioactive content using gamma ray spectroscopy. Dust samples were collected from Northern Jordan and it was found that the storm carried a large amount of both artificial and natural radioactivity. The average activity concentration of fallout (137)Cs was 17.0 Bq/kg which is larger than that found in soil (2.3 Bq/kg), and this enrichment is attributed to particle size effects. (7)Be which is of atmospheric origin and has a relatively short half-life, was detected in dust with relatively large activity concentrations, as it would be expected, with an average of 2860 Bq/kg, but it was not detected in soil. Despite the large activity concentration of (7)Be, dose assessment showed that it does not contribute significantly to the effective dose through inhalation. The concentrations of the primodial nuclides (40)K, (232)Th and (238)U were 547, 30.0 and 49.3 Bq/kg, respectively. With the exception of (40)K, these were comparable to what was found in soil. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

Impacts of episodic storms on coastal wetland processes in the Northeastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Climate model simulations corresponding to IPCC emissions scenarios suggest that by 2100, increases in precipitation intensity, the number of heavy precipitation events, and the intensity of the wettest events are all expected to increase, while concurrently, one to three month d...

Quantifying variable rainfall intensity events on runoff and sediment losses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Coastal Plain soils in Georgia are susceptible to runoff, sediment, and chemical losses from short duration-high intensity, runoff producing storms at critical times during the growing season. We quantified runoff and sediment losses from a Tifton loamy sand managed under conventional- (CT) and stri...

Spatial Precipitation Frequency of an Extreme Event: the July 2006 Mesoscale Convective Complexes and Debris Flows in Southeastern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, P. G.; Webb, W. H.; Magirl, C. S.; Pytlak, E.

2008-12-01

An extreme, multi-day rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 culminated in an historically unprecedented spate of 435 slope failures and associated debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. Previous to this occurrence, only twenty small debris flows had been observed in this region over the past 100 years. Although intense orographic precipitation is routinely delivered by single- cell thunderstorms to the Santa Catalinas during the North American monsoon, in this case repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems were induced over southeastern Arizona by an upper-level low- pressure system centered over the Four Corners region for five continuous days, generating five-day rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Calibrating weather radar data with point rainfall data collected at 31 rain gages, mean-area storms totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains were calculated for 754 radar grid cells at a resolution of approximately 1 km2 to provide a detailed picture of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the event. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was typical for monsoonal precipitation in this region, with peak 15-minute rainfall averaging 17 mm/hr for a recurrence interval (RI) < 1 yr. However, RI > 50 yrs for four-day rainfall totals overall, RI > 100 yrs where slope failures occurred, and RI > 1000 yrs for individual grid cells in the heart of the slope failure zone. A comparison of rainfall at locations where debris-flows did and did not occur suggests an intensity (I)-duration (D) threshold for debris flow occurrence for the Santa Catalina Mountains of I = 14.82D-0.39(I in mm/hr). This threshold falls slightly higher than the 1000-year rainfall predicted for this area. The relatively large exponent reflects the high frequency of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall and the relative rarity of the long-duration rainfall that triggered these debris flows. Analysis of the rainfall/runoff ratio in the drainage basin at the heart of the debris flows confirms that sediments were nearly saturated before debris flows were initiated on July 31.

Impact of agricultural management on pluvial flash floods - Case study of an extreme event observed in Austria in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumassegger, Simon; Achleitner, Stefan; Kohl, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Central Europe was affected by extreme flash floods in summer 2016 triggered by short, high-intensity storm cells. Besides fluvial runoff, local pluvial floods appear to increase recently. In frame of the research project SAFFER-CC (sensitivity assessment of critical condition for local flash floods - evaluating the recurrence under climate change) surface runoff and pluvial flooding is assessed using a coupled hydrological/2D hydrodynamic model for the severely affected municipality of Schwertberg, Upper Austria. In this small catchment several flooding events occurred in the last years, where the most severe event occurred during summer 2016. Several areas could only be reached after the flood wave subsided with observed flood marks up to one meter. The modeled catchment is intensively cultivated with maize, sugar beets, winter wheat and soy on the hillside and hence highly vulnerable to water erosion. The average inclination is relatively steep with 15 % leading to high flow velocities of surface runoff associated with large amounts of transported sediments. To assess the influence of land use and soil conservation on flash floods, field experiments with a portable irrigation spray installation were carried out at different locations. The test plots were subjected to rainfall with constant intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Consecutively a super intense, one hour lasting, rainfall hydrograph was applied after 30 minutes at the same plots, ranging from 50 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Surface runoff was collected and measured in a tank and water samples were taken to determine the suspended material load. Large differences of runoff coefficients were determined depending on the agricultural management. The largest discharge was measured in a maize field, where surface runoff occurred immediately after start of irrigation. The determined runoff coefficients ranged from 0.22 for soy up to 0.65 for maize for the same soil type and inclination. The conclusion that runoff is heavily influenced by land use matches well with the observed flow patterns during the storm event in summer 2016. The results clearly indicate the ability to reduce pluvial flash flood impacts by changing agricultural management practices.

Storm impacts upon the composition of organic matrices in Nagara River--a study based on molecular weight and activated carbon adsorbability.

PubMed

Li, Fusheng; Yuasa, Akira; Chiharada, Hajime; Matsui, Yoshihiko

2003-09-01

The impacts of a heavy storm of rain on the composition of natural organic matter (NOM) in Nagara River water were studied in terms of molecular weights (MWs) and activated carbon (AC) adsorbabilities using six water samples collected during a critical Typhoon weather condition. The composition in MWs was analyzed using a HPSEC system and that in adsorbabilities was characterized using parameters devised to reflect NOMs average adsorptive strength (K(M)), adsorptive strength polydispersity (sigma), affinity to AC (1/n) and non-adsorbable fraction (C(non)/C(T0)), respectively. These parameters were determined by model description of observed isotherms with a distributed fictive component method. The heavy storm of rain brought higher content of larger organic components into the river source, thus causing changes of NOMs weight-averaged MWs in the range of 2962-3495 Dalton and MW polydispersity in the narrow range of 1.153-1.226. Comparison of K(M) and sigma values for all samples assessed with both indices of TOC and UV260 showed that large proportions of the storm-induced organic components had adsorptive strengths similar to those existent before the storm, with the presence levels for components revealing much strong and weak adsorbabilities being low. Among all organic components brought into the river by the storm of rain, the percentages of non-adsorbable ones was lower (smaller C(non)/C(T0) values); and the adsorbable ones had generally more affinity to the adsorbents used (smaller 1/n values).

Historical changes in the Mississippi-Alabama barrier islands and the roles of extreme storms, sea level, and human activities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.

2007-01-01

An historical analysis of images and documents shows that the Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are undergoing rapid land loss and translocation. The barrier island chain formed and grew at a time when there was a surplus of sand in the alongshore sediment transport system, a condition that no longer prevails. The islands, except Cat, display alternating wide and marrow segments. Wide segments generally were products of low rates of inlet migration and spit elongation that resulted in well-defined ridges and swales formed by wave refraction along the inlet margins. In contrast, rapid rates of inlet migration and spit elongation under conditions of surplus sand produced low, narrow, straight barrier segments. Since the mid 1800s, average rates of land loss for all the MS islands accelerated systematically while maintaining consistency from island to island. In contrast, Dauphin Island, off the Alabama coast, gained land during the early 20th century and then began to lose land at rates comparable to those of the MS barriers. There is an inverse relationship between island size and percentage of land reduction for each barrier such that Horn Island lost 24% and Ship Island lost 64% of its area since the mid 1800s. Ship Island is particularly vulnerable to storm-driven land losses because topographic and bathymetric boundary conditions focus wave energy onto the island. The three predominant morphodynamic processes associated with land loss are: (1) unequal lateral transfer of sand related to greater updrift erosion compared to downdrift deposition, (2) barrier narrowing resulting from simultaneous erosion of the Gulf and Soundside shores, and (3) barrier segmentation related to storm breaching. The western three fourths of Dauphin Island are migrating landward as a result of storms that erode the Gulf shore, overwash the island, and deposit sand in Mississippi Sound. Petit Bois, Horn, and Ship Islands have migrated westward as a result of predominant westward sediment transport by alongshore currents, and Cat Island is being reshaped as it adjusts to post-formation changes in wave and current patterns associated with deposition of the St. Bernard lobe of the Mississippi delta. The principal causes of barrier island land loss are frequent intense storms, a relative rise in sea level, and a deficit in the sediment budget. The only factor that has a historical trend that coincides with the progressive increase in rates of land loss is the progressive reduction in sand supply associated with nearly simultaneous deepening of channels dredged across the outer bars of the three tidal inlets maintained for deep-draft shipping. Neither rates of relative sea level rise nor storm parameters have long-term historical rends that match the increased rates of land loss since the mid 1800s. The historical rates of relative sea level rise in the northern Gulf of Mexico have been relatively constant and storm frequencies and intensities occur in multidecal cycles. However, the most recent land loss accelerations likely related to the increased storm activity since 1995. Considering the predicted trends for storms and sea level related to global warming, it is clear that the barrier islands will continue to lose land area at a rapid rate without a reversal in trend of at least one of the causal factors. The reduction in sand supply related to disruption of the alongshore sediment transport system is the only factor contributing to land loss that can be managed directly. This can be accomplished by placing dredged material so that the adjacent barrier island shores revive it for island nourishment and rebuilding.