Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

PubMed

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Aggregation increases prey survival time in group chase and escape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sicong; Jiang, Shijie; Jiang, Li; Li, Geng; Han, Zhangang

2014-08-01

Recently developed chase-and-escape models have addressed a fascinating pursuit-and-evasion problem that may have both theoretical significance and potential applications. We introduce three aggregation strategies for the prey in a group chase model on a lattice. Simulation results show that aggregation dramatically increases the group survival time, even allowing immortal prey. The average survival time τ and the aggregation probability P have a power-law dependence of \\tau \\sim {{(1-P)}^{-1}} for P\\in [0.9,0.997]. With increasing numbers of predators, there is still a phase transition. When the number of predators is less than the critical point value, the prey group survival time increases significantly.

High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G

2017-08-01

The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the Pacific discards a climate-related decline and point to anthropogenic sources of mortality as the main causes responsible for the observed population decline. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Factors Affecting Route Selection and Survival of Steelhead Kelts at Snake River Dams in 2012 and 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harnish, Ryan A.; Colotelo, Alison HA; Li, Xinya

2014-12-01

In 2012 and 2013, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a study that summarized the passage proportions and route-specific survival rates of steelhead kelts that passed through Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) dams. To accomplish this, a total of 811 steelhead kelts were tagged with Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) transmitters. Acoustic receivers, both autonomous and cabled, were deployed throughout the FCRPS to monitor the downstream movements of tagged-kelts. Kelts were also tagged with Passive Integrated Transponder tags to monitor passage through juvenile bypass systems and detect returning fish. The current study evaluated data collected in 2012 and 2013more » to identify individual, behavioral, environmental and dam operation variables that were related to passage and survival of steelhead kelts that passed through FCRPS dams. Bayesian model averaging of multivariable logistic regression models was used to identify the environmental, temporal, operational, individual, and behavioral variables that had the highest probability of influencing the route of passage and the route-specific survival probabilities for kelts that passed Lower Granite (LGR), Little Goose (LGS), and Lower Monumental (LMN) dams in 2012 and 2013. The posterior probabilities of the best models for predicting route of passage ranged from 0.106 for traditional spill at LMN to 0.720 for turbine passage at LGS. Generally, the behavior (depth and near-dam searching activity) of kelts in the forebay appeared to have the greatest influence on their route of passage. Shallower-migrating kelts had a higher probability of passing via the weir and deeper-migrating kelts had a higher probability of passing via the JBS and turbines than other routes. Kelts that displayed a higher level of near-dam searching activity had a higher probability of passing via the spillway weir and those that did less near-dam searching had a higher probability of passing via the JBS and turbines. The side of the river in which kelts approached the dam and dam operations also affected route of passage. Dam operations and the size and condition of kelts were found to have the greatest effect on route-specific survival probabilities for fish that passed via the spillway at LGS. That is, longer kelts and those in fair condition had a lower probability of survival for fish that passed via the spillway weir. The survival of spillway weir- and deep-spill passed kelts was positively correlated with the percent of the total discharge that passed through turbine unit 4. Too few kelts passed through the traditional spill, JBS, and turbine units to evaluate survival through these routes. The information gathered in this study describes Snake River steelhead kelt passage behavior, rates, and distributions through the FCRPS as well as provide information to biologists and engineers about the dam operations and abiotic conditions that are related to passage and survival of steelhead kelts.« less

Reproductive ecology of Dusky Flycatchers in western Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedgwick, James A.

1993-01-01

Breeding ecology of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) was studied in western Montana from May-August 1974. Dusky Flycatchers were monogamous and single-brooded although some pairs made renesting attempts after first nests failed. Length of the reproductive cycle for first nesting attempts, from arrival on the breeding grounds to fledging, was about 70 days. All nests were placed in shrubs, primarily ninebark (Physocarpus malvaceus) and Rocky Mountain maple (Acer glabrum), and were an average of 150 cm above the ground. Females incubated a clutch with an average of 4.0 eggs for 15-16 days, and the average nestling period was 17.5 days. Both sexes fed nestlings and fledglings, but only females brooded nestlings. Egg survival was 63.8%, hatching success was 95.4%, and nestling survival was 61.9% for an overall probability of 0.376 percent that an egg produced a fledgling. Predation was the major cause of nest failure. Dusky Flycatchers reared an average of 1.9 fledglings/pair.

Survival of Western Sandpiper broods on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruthrauff, D.R.; McCaffery, B.J.

2005-01-01

The rate of chick growth in high-latitude breeding shorebirds is rapid, but little is known about the effect of chick mass, growth, and brood movements on subsequent brood survival. To address these topics, we monitored chick growth patterns, daily brood movements, and survival of Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. We assessed the effect of chick age, mass, and hatch date on brood survival using Program MARK. We mapped brood locations daily, and compared brood movement patterns between successful and unsuccessful broods. Younger chicks survived at lower rates and moved shorter distances than older chicks. The overall probability of one or more chicks from a brood surviving to 15 days of age was 0.73 ± 0.05 SE. Brood survival declined seasonally, and broods with heavier chicks survived at higher rates than those with lighter chicks. On average, successful broods fledged 1.7 ± 0.1 SE chicks. Rate of chick growth was intermediate between those of high arctic and temperate-breeding shorebirds, and chick mass at hatching declined seasonally. Western Sandpiper brood survival was lowest when chicks were young, spatially clumped, and unable to maintain homeothermy, probably because young chicks were more vulnerable to both complete depredation events and extreme weather. Our data suggest that larger, older chicks are able to avoid predators by being spatially dispersed and highly mobile; thermal independence, achieved after approximately day five, enables chicks to better endure prolonged periods of cold and low food availability.

Survival of spectacled eider adult females and ducklings during brood rearing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

1997-01-01

We studied survival of adult female and duckling spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) during brood rearing on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1993 to 1995. Duckling survival to 30 days of age averaged 34% with a 95% confidence interval from 25 to 47%. Half (49%) of radiomarked adult females had lost all their ducklings by 30 days after hatch. Most (74%) duckling mortality occurred in the first 10 days. Adult female survival during the first 30 days of brood rearing was 93 ± 3% (SE). Females died from lead poisoning, as a result of ingesting lead shot, and predation. Mortality of adult females during brood rearing is probably higher than during other times of the year. Low adult female survival during the breeding season may be contributing to the overall population decline of spectacled eiders.

On the statistical and transport properties of a non-dissipative Fermi-Ulam model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livorati, André L. P.; Dettmann, Carl P.; Caldas, Iberê L.; Leonel, Edson D.

2015-10-01

The transport and diffusion properties for the velocity of a Fermi-Ulam model were characterized using the decay rate of the survival probability. The system consists of an ensemble of non-interacting particles confined to move along and experience elastic collisions with two infinitely heavy walls. One is fixed, working as a returning mechanism of the colliding particles, while the other one moves periodically in time. The diffusion equation is solved, and the diffusion coefficient is numerically estimated by means of the averaged square velocity. Our results show remarkably good agreement of the theory and simulation for the chaotic sea below the first elliptic island in the phase space. From the decay rates of the survival probability, we obtained transport properties that can be extended to other nonlinear mappings, as well to billiard problems.

Long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment.

PubMed

Juhász, Róbert; Kovács, István A; Iglói, Ferenc

2015-03-01

Modeling long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment, we consider a quenched, disordered, d-dimensional contact process with infection rates decaying with distance as 1/rd+σ. We study the dynamical behavior of the model at and below the epidemic threshold by a variant of the strong-disorder renormalization-group method and by Monte Carlo simulations in one and two spatial dimensions. Starting from a single infected site, the average survival probability is found to decay as P(t)∼t-d/z up to multiplicative logarithmic corrections. Below the epidemic threshold, a Griffiths phase emerges, where the dynamical exponent z varies continuously with the control parameter and tends to zc=d+σ as the threshold is approached. At the threshold, the spatial extension of the infected cluster (in surviving trials) is found to grow as R(t)∼t1/zc with a multiplicative logarithmic correction and the average number of infected sites in surviving trials is found to increase as Ns(t)∼(lnt)χ with χ=2 in one dimension.

[Nonparametric method of estimating survival functions containing right-censored and interval-censored data].

PubMed

Xu, Yonghong; Gao, Xiaohuan; Wang, Zhengxi

2014-04-01

Missing data represent a general problem in many scientific fields, especially in medical survival analysis. Dealing with censored data, interpolation method is one of important methods. However, most of the interpolation methods replace the censored data with the exact data, which will distort the real distribution of the censored data and reduce the probability of the real data falling into the interpolation data. In order to solve this problem, we in this paper propose a nonparametric method of estimating the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data and compare its performance to SC (self-consistent) algorithm. Comparing to the average interpolation and the nearest neighbor interpolation method, the proposed method in this paper replaces the right-censored data with the interval-censored data, and greatly improves the probability of the real data falling into imputation interval. Then it bases on the empirical distribution theory to estimate the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data. The results of numerical examples and a real breast cancer data set demonstrated that the proposed method had higher accuracy and better robustness for the different proportion of the censored data. This paper provides a good method to compare the clinical treatments performance with estimation of the survival data of the patients. This pro vides some help to the medical survival data analysis.

Statistical Tools for Determining Fitness to Fly

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

program. (a) Number of Cards in file: 13 (b) Layout of Card 1: iIi Field Length a•e. Variable 1 8 Real EFAIL : Average # of failures for size of control...Method Compute Survival Probability and Frequency Tables 4-4 END 25P FLUW CHARTS 27 QSTART Input EFAIL ,CYEAR,NVAR,NAV,XINC BB~i i=1,3 name (1) i=1,4 Call

Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

2002-01-01

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Disparities in breast cancer tumor characteristics, treatment, time to treatment, and survival probability among African American and white women.

PubMed

Foy, Kevin Chu; Fisher, James L; Lustberg, Maryam B; Gray, Darrell M; DeGraffinreid, Cecilia R; Paskett, Electra D

2018-01-01

African American (AA) women have a 42% higher breast cancer death rate compared to white women despite recent advancements in management of the disease. We examined racial differences in clinical and tumor characteristics, treatment and survival in patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2014 at a single institution, the James Cancer Hospital, and who were included in the Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute Cancer Registry in Columbus OH. Statistical analyses included likelihood ratio chi-square tests for differences in proportions, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine associations between race and overall and progression-free survival probabilities. AA women made up 10.2% (469 of 4593) the sample. Average time to onset of treatment after diagnosis was almost two times longer in AA women compared to white women (62.0 days vs 35.5 days, p  < 0.0001). AA women were more likely to report past or current tobacco use, experience delays in treatment, have triple negative and late stage breast cancer, and were less likely to receive surgery, especially mastectomy and reconstruction following mastectomy. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, grade, and surgery), overall survival probability was significantly associated with race (HR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.72). These findings highlight the need for efforts focused on screening and receipt of prompt treatment among AA women diagnosed with breast cancer.

Mortality of American alligators attributed to cannibalism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delany, Michael F.; Woodward, Allan R.; Kiltie, Richard A.; Moore, Clinton T.

2011-01-01

Mortality of juvenile (Alligator mississippiensis) attributed to cannibalism on Orange Lake, Florida was examined. Alligator web tags used in mark–recapture studies were found in 12% of 267 stomachs sampled from alligators ≥168 cm TL. Captive alligators retained 76% of force-fed tags during a 588-d tag-retention trial. Models relating the probability of tag recovery to the annual probabilities of juvenile survival, cannibalism, tag retention, adult survival, and adult harvest suggested that cannibalism may on average remove 6–7% of the juvenile alligator population annually. Vulnerability continued to 140 cm TL (age 6–8 yr). Cannibalism of juveniles may serve to regulate the alligator population on Orange Lake. Alligator cannibalism may vary widely among populations, depending on demography and environmental conditions. The role and importance of cannibalism in alligator population dynamics should be more fully assessed and environmental and population factors that influence cannibalism identified to better evaluate management programs.

Exploration and Trapping of Mortal Random Walkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuste, S. B.; Abad, E.; Lindenberg, Katja

2013-05-01

Exploration and trapping properties of random walkers that may evanesce at any time as they walk have seen very little treatment in the literature, and yet a finite lifetime is a frequent occurrence, and its effects on a number of random walk properties may be profound. For instance, whereas the average number of distinct sites visited by an immortal walker grows with time without bound, that of a mortal walker may, depending on dimensionality and rate of evanescence, remain finite or keep growing with the passage of time. This number can in turn be used to calculate other classic quantities such as the survival probability of a target surrounded by diffusing traps. If the traps are immortal, the survival probability will vanish with increasing time. However, if the traps are evanescent, the target may be spared a certain death. We analytically calculate a number of basic and broadly used quantities for evanescent random walkers.

Species survival and scaling laws in hostile and disordered environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Rodrigo P.; Figueiredo, Wagner; Suweis, Samir; Maritan, Amos

2016-10-01

In this work we study the likelihood of survival of single-species in the context of hostile and disordered environments. Population dynamics in this environment, as modeled by the Fisher equation, is characterized by negative average growth rate, except in some random spatially distributed patches that may support life. In particular, we are interested in the phase diagram of the survival probability and in the critical size problem, i.e., the minimum patch size required for surviving in the long-time dynamics. We propose a measure for the critical patch size as being proportional to the participation ratio of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the linearized Fisher dynamics. We obtain the (extinction-survival) phase diagram and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the critical patch sizes for two topologies, namely, the one-dimensional system and the fractal Peano basin. We show that both topologies share the same qualitative features, but the fractal topology requires higher spatial fluctuations to guarantee species survival. We perform a finite-size scaling and we obtain the associated scaling exponents. In addition, we show that the PDF of the critical patch sizes has an universal shape for the 1D case in terms of the model parameters (diffusion, growth rate, etc.). In contrast, the diffusion coefficient has a drastic effect on the PDF of the critical patch sizes of the fractal Peano basin, and it does not obey the same scaling law of the 1D case.

Survival analysis of patients with esophageal cancer using parametric cure model.

PubMed

Rasouli, Mahboube; Ghadimi, Mahmood Reza; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Mohammad, Kazem; Zeraati, Hojjat; Hosseini, Mostafa

2011-01-01

Esophageal cancer is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in the Caspian littoral north-eastern part of Iran. The aim of this study was to calculate cure function as well as to identify the factors that are related to this function among patients with esophageal cancer in this geographical area. Three hundred fifty nine cases of esophageal cancer registered in the Babol cancer registry during the period of 1990 to 1991 (inclusive) were followed up for 15 years up to 2006. Parametric cure model was used to calculate cure fraction and investigate the factors responsible for probability of cure among patients. Sample of subjects encompassed 62.7% men and 37.3% women, with mean ages of diagnosis was 60.0 and 55.3 years, respectively. The median survival time reached about 9 months and estimated survival rates in 1, 3, and 5 years following diagnosis were 23%, 15% and 13%, respectively. Results show the family history affects the cured fraction independently of its effect on early outcome and has a significant effect on the probability of uncured. The average cure fraction was estimated to be 0.10. As the proportionality assumption of Cox model does not meet in certain circumstances, a parametric cure model can provide a better fit and a better description of survival related outcome.

Fathers matter: male body mass affects life-history traits in a size-dimorphic seabird

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Börger, Luca; Weimerskirch, Henri; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-01-01

One of the predicted consequences of climate change is a shift in body mass distributions within animal populations. Yet body mass, an important component of the physiological state of an organism, can affect key life-history traits and consequently population dynamics. Over the past decades, the wandering albatross—a pelagic seabird providing bi-parental care with marked sexual size dimorphism—has exhibited an increase in average body mass and breeding success in parallel with experiencing increasing wind speeds. To assess the impact of these changes, we examined how body mass affects five key life-history traits at the individual level: adult survival, breeding probability, breeding success, chick mass and juvenile survival. We found that male mass impacted all traits examined except breeding probability, whereas female mass affected none. Adult male survival increased with increasing mass. Increasing adult male mass increased breeding success and mass of sons but not of daughters. Juvenile male survival increased with their chick mass. These results suggest that a higher investment in sons by fathers can increase their inclusive fitness, which is not the case for daughters. Our study highlights sex-specific differences in the effect of body mass on the life history of a monogamous species with bi-parental care. PMID:28469021

A comparison of conventional capture versus PIT reader techniques for estimating survival and capture probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, L.E.; O'Shea, T.J.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Pearce, R.D.; Bowen, R.A.

2007-01-01

We compared conventional capture (primarily mist nets and harp traps) and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging techniques for estimating capture and survival probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado. A total of 987 female adult and juvenile bats were captured and marked by subdermal injection of PIT tags during the summers of 2001-2005 at five maternity colonies in buildings. Openings to roosts were equipped with PIT hoop-style readers, and exit and entry of bats were passively monitored on a daily basis throughout the summers of 2002-2005. PIT readers 'recaptured' adult and juvenile females more often than conventional capture events at each roost. Estimates of annual capture probabilities for all five colonies were on average twice as high when estimated from PIT reader data (P?? = 0.93-1.00) than when derived from conventional techniques (P?? = 0.26-0.66), and as a consequence annual survival estimates were more precisely estimated when using PIT reader encounters. Short-term, daily capture estimates were also higher using PIT readers than conventional captures. We discuss the advantages and limitations of using PIT tags and passive encounters with hoop readers vs. conventional capture techniques for estimating these vital parameters in big brown bats. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

Sub-barrier quasifission in heavy element formation reactions with deformed actinide target nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinde, D. J.; Jeung, D. Y.; Prasad, E.; Wakhle, A.; Dasgupta, M.; Evers, M.; Luong, D. H.; du Rietz, R.; Simenel, C.; Simpson, E. C.; Williams, E.

2018-02-01

Background: The formation of superheavy elements (SHEs) by fusion of two massive nuclei is severely inhibited by the competing quasifission process. Low excitation energies favor SHE survival against fusion-fission competition. In "cold" fusion with spherical target nuclei near 208Pb, SHE yields are largest at beam energies significantly below the average capture barrier. In "hot" fusion with statically deformed actinide nuclei, this is not the case. Here the elongated deformation-aligned configurations in sub-barrier capture reactions inhibits fusion (formation of a compact compound nucleus), instead favoring rapid reseparation through quasifission. Purpose: To determine the probabilities of fast and slow quasifission in reactions with prolate statically deformed actinide nuclei, through measurement and quantitative analysis of the dependence of quasifission characteristics at beam energies spanning the average capture barrier energy. Methods: The Australian National University Heavy Ion Accelerator Facility and CUBE fission spectrometer have been used to measure fission and quasifission mass and angle distributions for reactions with projectiles from C to S, bombarding Th and U target nuclei. Results: Mass-asymmetric quasifission occurring on a fast time scale, associated with collisions with the tips of the prolate actinide nuclei, shows a rapid increase in probability with increasing projectile charge, the transition being centered around projectile atomic number ZP=14 . For mass-symmetric fission events, deviations of angular anisotropies from expectations for fusion fission, indicating a component of slower quasifission, suggest a similar transition, but centered around ZP˜8 . Conclusions: Collisions with the tips of statically deformed prolate actinide nuclei show evidence for two distinct quasifission processes of different time scales. Their probabilities both increase rapidly with the projectile charge. The probability of fusion can be severely suppressed by these two quasifission processes, since the sub-barrier heavy element yield is likely to be determined by the product of the probabilities of surviving each quasifission process.

[Estimating survival of thrushes: modeling capture-recapture probabilities].

PubMed

Burskiî, O V

2011-01-01

The stochastic modeling technique serves as a way to correctly separate "return rate" of marked animals into survival rate (phi) and capture probability (p). The method can readily be used with the program MARK freely distributed through Internet (Cooch, White, 2009). Input data for the program consist of "capture histories" of marked animals--strings of units and zeros indicating presence or absence of the individual among captures (or sightings) along the set of consequent recapture occasions (e.g., years). Probability of any history is a product of binomial probabilities phi, p or their complements (1 - phi) and (1 - p) for each year of observation over the individual. Assigning certain values to parameters phi and p, one can predict the composition of all individual histories in the sample and assess the likelihood of the prediction. The survival parameters for different occasions and cohorts of individuals can be set either equal or different, as well as recapture parameters can be set in different ways. There is a possibility to constraint the parameters, according to the hypothesis being tested, in the form of a specific model. Within the specified constraints, the program searches for parameter values that describe the observed composition of histories with the maximum likelihood. It computes the parameter estimates along with confidence limits and the overall model likelihood. There is a set of tools for testing the model goodness-of-fit under assumption of equality of survival rates among individuals and independence of their fates. Other tools offer a proper selection among a possible variety of models, providing the best parity between details and precision in describing reality. The method was applied to 20-yr recapture and resighting data series on 4 thrush species (genera Turdus, Zoothera) breeding in the Yenisei River floodplain within the middle taiga subzone. The capture probabilities were quite independent of observational efforts fluctuations while differing significantly between the species and sexes. The estimates of adult survival rate, obtained for the Siberian migratory populations, were lower than those for sedentary populations from both the tropics and intermediate latitudes with marine climate (data by Ricklefs, 1997). Two factors, the average temperature influencing birds during their annual movements, and climatic seasonality (temperature difference between summer and winter) in the breeding area, fit the latitudinal pattern of survival most closely (R2 = 0.90). Final survival of migrants reflects an adaptive life history compromise for use of superabundant resources in breeding area at the cost of avoidance of severe winter conditions.

Esophageal cancer: 5-year survival rate at south-east of Caspian sea of northern Iran.

PubMed

Taziki, Mohammad Hussin; Rajaee, Siamak; Behnampour, Naser; Tadrisee, Massoud; Mansourian, Azad Reza

2011-01-01

Locating at southern margin of Caspian sea and Asian esophagus cancer cordon Golestan state is one of the most common sites of this cancer. This study designed to evaluate the 5-years survival rate of esophagus cancer. 55 patients with esophagus cancer diagnosed by pathologic examination, age, gender, type of tumor, clinical manifestation on the time of tumor metastases, treatment and patient survival time studied. The collecting data were analyzed by SPSS 11.5, and life table and Kaplan Meier methods were applied. 55 patients studied included 11 females and 44 males respectively with average survival life time of 12.8 months for the 5-year survival rate for patients diagnosed at early stage was 0.025, patients with systemic symptoms such as weight loss was 0.00. Far metastases adverse effect on highest survivals was observed among patients who underwent surgery; the survival rate for such patients was about 0.014. Esophageal cancer is high in southern margin of Caspian Sea, it is suggested to design studies to find the probable risk factors and the screening tests for on-time diagnosis.

Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Rexstad, E.A.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.

1997-01-01

We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S0(1 - ??D), where ?? was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which ?? was not constrained, a model with ?? constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, ??, was -0.47 ?? 0.13 SE, -0.14 ?? 0.057, and -0.12 ?? 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ?? 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ?? 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ?? 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ?? 0.034 to 0.900 ?? 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

Mortality experience of the 1986-2000 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files participants.

PubMed

Ingram, Deborah D; Lochner, Kimberly A; Cox, Christine S

2008-10-01

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) has produced the 1986-2000 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) Linked Mortality Files by linking eligible adults in the 1986-2000 NHIS cohorts through probabilistic record linkage to the National Death Index to obtain mortality follow-up through December 31, 2002. The resulting files contain more than 120,000 deaths and an average of 9 years of survival time. To assess how well mortality was ascertained in the linked mortality files, NCHS has conducted a comparison of the mortality experience of the 1986-2000 NHIS cohorts with that of the U.S. population. This report presents the results of this comparative mortality assessment. Methods The survival of each annual NHIS cohort was compared with that of the U.S. population during the same period. Cumulative survival probabilities for each annual NHIS cohort were derived using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method, and corresponding cumulative survival probabilities were computed for the U.S. population using information from annual U.S. life tables. The survival probabilities were calculated at various lengths of follow-up for each age-race-sex group of each NHIS cohort and for the U.S. population. Results As expected, mortality tended to be underestimated in the NHIS cohorts because the sample includes only civilian, noninstitutionalized persons, but this underestimation generally was not statistically significant. Statistically significant differences increased with length of follow-up, occurred more often for white females than for the other race-sex groups, and occurred more often in the oldest age groups. In general, the survival experience of the age-race-sex groups of each NHIS cohort corresponds quite closely to that of the U.S. population, providing support that the ascertainment of mortality through the probabilistic record linkage accurately reflects the mortality experience of the NHIS cohorts.

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Encounters with Pinyon-Juniper influence riskier movements in Greater Sage-Grouse across the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prochazka, Brian; Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark; Casazza, Michael L.; Gustafson, K. Ben; Hull, Josh M.

2016-01-01

Fine-scale spatiotemporal studies can better identify relationships between individual survival and habitat fragmentation so that mechanistic interpretations can be made at the population level. Recent advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) technology and statistical models capable of deconstructing high-frequency location data have facilitated interpretation of animal movement within a behaviorally mechanistic framework. Habitat fragmentation due to singleleaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla; hereafter pinyon) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma; hereafter juniper) encroachment into sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities is a commonly implicated perturbation that can adversely influence greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) demographic rates. Using an extensive GPS data set (233 birds and 282,954 locations) across 12 study sites within the Great Basin, we conducted a behavioral change point analysis and subsequently constructed Brownian bridge movement models from each behaviorally homogenous section. We found a positive relationship between modeled movement rate and probability of encountering pinyon-juniper with significant variation among age classes. The probability of encountering pinyon-juniper among adults was two and three times greater than that of yearlings and juveniles, respectively. However, the movement rate in response to the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper trees was 1.5 times greater for juveniles. We then assessed the risk of mortality associated with an interaction between movement rate and the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper using shared frailty models. During pinyon-juniper encounters, on average, juvenile, yearling, and adult birds experienced a 10.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% reduction in annual survival probabilities. Populations that used pinyon-juniper habitats with a frequency ≥ 3.8 times the overall mean experienced decreases in annual survival probabilities of 71.1%, 0.9%, and 0.9%. This analytical framework identifies a likely behavioral mechanism behind how pinyon-juniper encroachment decreases habitat suitability for sage-grouse, whereby encountering pinyon-juniper stimulates faster yet riskier movements that may make sage-grouse more vulnerable to visually acute predators.

Risk markers for disappearance of pediatric Web resources

PubMed Central

Hernández-Borges, Angel A.; Jiménez-Sosa, Alejandro; Torres-Álvarez de Arcaya, Maria L.; Macías-Cervi, Pablo; Gaspar-Guardado, Maria A.; Ruíz-Rabaza, Ana

2005-01-01

Objectives: The authors sought to find out whether certain Webometric indexes of a sample of pediatric Web resources, and some tests based on them, could be helpful predictors of their disappearance. Methods: The authors performed a retrospective study of a sample of 363 pediatric Websites and pages they had followed for 4 years. Main measurements included: number of resources that disappeared, number of inbound links and their annual increment, average daily visits to the resources in the sample, sample compliance with the quality criteria of 3 international organizations, and online time of the Web resources. Results: On average, 11% of the sample disappeared annually. However, 13% of these were available again at the end of follow up. Disappearing and surviving Websites did not show differences in the variables studied. However, surviving Web pages had a higher number of inbound links and higher annual increment in inbound links. Similarly, Web pages that survived showed higher compliance with recognized sets of quality criteria than those that disappeared. A subset of 14 quality criteria whose compliance accounted for 90% of the probability of online permanence was identified. Finally, a progressive increment of inbound links was found to be a marker of good prognosis, showing high specificity and positive predictive value (88% and 94%, respectively). Conclusions: The number of inbound links and annual increment of inbound links could be useful markers of the permanence probability for pediatric Web pages. Strategies that assure the Web editors' awareness of their Web resources' popularity could stimulate them to improve the quality of their Websites. PMID:16059427

Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, S.J.; Iverson, J.B.; Savidge, J.A.

2005-01-01

Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate (????) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance (????2) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

The effect of maternal healthcare on the probability of child survival in Azerbaijan.

PubMed

Habibov, Nazim; Fan, Lida

2014-01-01

This study assesses the effects of maternal healthcare on child survival by using nonrandomized data from a cross-sectional survey in Azerbaijan. Using 2SLS and simultaneous equation bivariate probit models, we estimate the effects of delivering in healthcare facility on probability of child survival taking into account self-selection into the treatment. For women who delivered at healthcare facilities, the probability of child survival increases by approximately 18%. Furthermore, if every woman had the opportunity to deliver in healthcare facility, then the probability of child survival in Azerbaijan as a whole would have increased by approximately 16%.

Leptonic Unitarity Triangle and CP-Violation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farzan, Yasaman

2002-02-01

The area of the unitarity triangle is a measure of CP-violation. We introduce the leptonic unitarity triangles and study their properties. We consider the possibility of reconstructing the unitarity triangle in future oscillation and non-oscillation experiments. A set of measurements is suggested which will, in principle, allow us to measure all sides of the triangle, and consequently to establish CP-violation. For different values of the CP-violating phase, {delta}{sub D}, the required accuracy of measurements is estimated. The key elements of the method include determination of |U{sub e3}| and studies of the {nu}{sub {mu}} - {nu}{sub {mu}} survival probability in oscillationsmore » driven by the solar mass splitting {Delta}m{sub sun}{sup 2}. We suggest additional astrophysical measurements which may help to reconstruct the triangle. The method of the unitarity triangle is complementary to the direct measurements of CP-asymmetry. It requires mainly studies of the survival probabilities and processes where oscillations are averaged or the coherence of the state is lost.« less

Generic dynamical features of quenched interacting quantum systems: Survival probability, density imbalance, and out-of-time-ordered correlator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Herrera, E. J.; García-García, Antonio M.; Santos, Lea F.

2018-02-01

We study numerically and analytically the quench dynamics of isolated many-body quantum systems. Using full random matrices from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, we obtain analytical expressions for the evolution of the survival probability, density imbalance, and out-of-time-ordered correlator. They are compared with numerical results for a one-dimensional-disordered model with two-body interactions and shown to bound the decay rate of this realistic system. Power-law decays are seen at intermediate times, and dips below the infinite time averages (correlation holes) occur at long times for all three quantities when the system exhibits level repulsion. The fact that these features are shared by both the random matrix and the realistic disordered model indicates that they are generic to nonintegrable interacting quantum systems out of equilibrium. Assisted by the random matrix analytical results, we propose expressions that describe extremely well the dynamics of the realistic chaotic system at different time scales.

Investigation of stickiness influence in the anomalous transport and diffusion for a non-dissipative Fermi-Ulam model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livorati, André L. P.; Palmero, Matheus S.; Díaz-I, Gabriel; Dettmann, Carl P.; Caldas, Iberê L.; Leonel, Edson D.

2018-02-01

We study the dynamics of an ensemble of non interacting particles constrained by two infinitely heavy walls, where one of them is moving periodically in time, while the other is fixed. The system presents mixed dynamics, where the accessible region for the particle to diffuse chaotically is bordered by an invariant spanning curve. Statistical analysis for the root mean square velocity, considering high and low velocity ensembles, leads the dynamics to the same steady state plateau for long times. A transport investigation of the dynamics via escape basins reveals that depending of the initial velocity ensemble, the decay rates of the survival probability present different shapes and bumps, in a mix of exponential, power law and stretched exponential decays. After an analysis of step-size averages, we found that the stable manifolds play the role of a preferential path for faster escape, being responsible for the bumps and different shapes of the survival probability.

Survival estimates for reintroduced populations of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Paige E; Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Chandler, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts.

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

2009-01-01

Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

Does genetic introgression improve female reproductive performance? A test on the endangered Florida panther.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Bolker, Benjamin M; Johnson, Warren E; O'Brien, Stephen J; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Genetic introgression has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression, but the role of introgression in species conservation has been controversial, partly because population-level impacts of genetic introgressions are not well understood. Concerns about potential inbreeding depression in the endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) led to the release of eight female Texas pumas (P. c. stanleyana) into the Florida panther population in 1995. We used long-term reproductive data (1995-2008) collected from 61 female Florida panthers to estimate and model reproduction probability (probability of producing a litter) and litter size, and to investigate the influence of intentional genetic introgression on these parameters. Overall, 6-month probability of reproduction (±1SE) was 0.232 ± 0.021 and average litter size was 2.60 ± 0.09. Although F(1) admixed females had a lower reproduction probability than females with other ancestries, this was most likely because kittens born to F(1) females survive better; consequently, these females are unavailable for breeding until kittens are independent. There was no evidence for the effect of ancestry on litter size or of heterozygosity on probability of reproduction or litter size. In contrast, earlier studies have shown that genetic introgression positively affected Florida panther survival. Our results, along with those of earlier studies, clearly suggest that genetic introgression can have differential effects on components of fitness and highlight the importance of examining multiple demographic parameters when evaluating the effects of management actions.

Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

PubMed Central

Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Pauly, Mark V.

2009-01-01

Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality. PMID:20376300

Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013–2016

PubMed Central

Ariyarajah, Archchun; Blake, Isobel M.; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Eckmanns, Tim; Fraser, Christophe; Hinsley, Wes; Jombart, Thibaut; Mills, Harriet L.; Newton, Emily; Nouvellet, Pierre; Perkins, Devin; Riley, Steven; Schumacher, Dirk; Shah, Anita; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Dye, Christopher; Ferguson, Neil M.

2017-01-01

The 2013–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest on record with 28 616 confirmed, probable and suspected cases and 11 310 deaths officially recorded by 10 June 2016, the true burden probably considerably higher. The case fatality ratio (CFR: proportion of cases that are fatal) is a key indicator of disease severity useful for gauging the appropriate public health response and for evaluating treatment benefits, if estimated accurately. We analysed individual-level clinical outcome data from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone officially reported to the World Health Organization. The overall mean CFR was 62.9% (95% CI: 61.9% to 64.0%) among confirmed cases with recorded clinical outcomes. Age was the most important modifier of survival probabilities, but country, stage of the epidemic and whether patients were hospitalized also played roles. We developed a statistical analysis to detect outliers in CFR between districts of residence and treatment centres (TCs), adjusting for known factors influencing survival and identified eight districts and three TCs with a CFR significantly different from the average. From the current dataset, we cannot determine whether the observed variation in CFR seen by district or treatment centre reflects real differences in survival, related to the quality of care or other factors or was caused by differences in reporting practices or case ascertainment. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’. PMID:28396479

Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

2006-09-01

This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

Probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water.

PubMed

Wissler, Eugene H

2003-01-01

Estimating the probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water presents formidable challenges for both theoreticians and empirics. A number of theoretical models have been developed assuming that death occurs when the central body temperature, computed using a mathematical model, falls to a certain level. This paper describes a different theoretical approach to estimating the probability of survival. The human thermal model developed by Wissler is used to compute the central temperature during immersion in cold water. Simultaneously, a survival probability function is computed by solving a differential equation that defines how the probability of survival decreases with increasing time. The survival equation assumes that the probability of occurrence of a fatal event increases as the victim's central temperature decreases. Generally accepted views of the medical consequences of hypothermia and published reports of various accidents provide information useful for defining a "fatality function" that increases exponentially with decreasing central temperature. The particular function suggested in this paper yields a relationship between immersion time for 10% probability of survival and water temperature that agrees very well with Molnar's empirical observations based on World War II data. The method presented in this paper circumvents a serious difficulty with most previous models--that one's ability to survive immersion in cold water is determined almost exclusively by the ability to maintain a high level of shivering metabolism.

Postfledging survival of European starlings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1989-01-01

We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY-HEAVY group, while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE-LIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

1998-01-01

The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated for manatees in the Blue Spring and Crystal River areas were consistent with current mammalian life history theory and other empirical data available for large, long-lived mammals. Adult survival probabilities in these areas appeared high enough to maintain growing populations if other traits such as reproductive rates and juvenile survival were also sufficiently high lower and variable survival rates on the Atlantic coast are cause for concern.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.

Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Blums, P.

1997-01-01

Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

Effect of drift on the temporal asymptotic form of the particle survival probability in media with absorbing traps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arkhincheev, V. E., E-mail: varkhin@mail.ru

A new asymptotic form of the particle survival probability in media with absorbing traps has been established. It is shown that this drift mechanism determines a new temporal behavior of the probability of particle survival in media with absorbing traps over long time intervals.

Using thermal inactivation kinetics to calculate the probability of extreme spore longevity: implications for paleomicrobiology and lithopanspermia.

PubMed

Nicholson, Wayne L

2003-12-01

Thermal inactivation kinetics with extrapolation were used to model the survival probabilities of spores of various Bacillus species over time periods of millions of years at the historical ambient temperatures (25-40 degrees C) encountered within the 250 million-year-old Salado formation, from which the putative ancient spore-forming bacterium Salibacillus marismortui strain 2-9-3 was recovered. The model indicated extremely low-to-moderate survival probabilities for spores of mesophiles. but surprisingly high survival probabilities for thermophilic spores. The significance of the results are discussed in terms of the survival probabilities of (i) terrestrial spores in ancient geologic samples and (ii) spores transported between planets within impact ejecta.

Using Thermal Inactivation Kinetics to Calculate the Probability of Extreme Spore Longevity: Implications for Paleomicrobiology and Lithopanspermia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, Wayne L.

2003-12-01

Thermal inactivation kinetics with extrapolation were used to model the survival probabilities of spores of various Bacillus species over time periods of millions of years at the historical ambient temperatures (25-40 °) encountered within the 250 million-year-old Salado formation, from which the putative ancient spore-forming bacterium Salibacillus marismortui strain 2-9-3 was recovered. The model indicated extremely low-to-moderate survival probabilities for spores of mesophiles, but surprisingly high survival probabilities for thermophilic spores. The significance of the results are discussed in terms of the survival probabilities of (i) terrestrial spores in ancient geologic samples and (ii) spores transported between planets within impact ejecta.

Under multilevel selection: "when shall you be neither spiteful nor envious?".

PubMed

Garay, József; Csiszár, Villő; Móri, Tamás F

2014-01-07

In this paper, we study the egalitarianism-game in multilevel selection situation. The individuals form reproductive groups. In each group, an egalitarianism-game determines the number of juveniles of different phenotypes (spiteful, envious, neutral and donator). Before the juveniles form the next reproductive group, they have to survive either predators' attacks or a fight between two groups. We adopt the ESS definition of Maynard Smith to multilevel selection. Based on the "group size advantage" assumption (which claims that each juvenile's survival rate depends on the size of his own group, supposing that either the survival rate under predators' attacks is higher in larger groups, or in inter-group aggression usually the larger group wins) we found that when the survival probability has a massive effect on the average fitness, then "group fitness maximizing behavior" (in our case, either neutral or donator) has evolutionary advantage over "competitive behavior" (in our case, either spiteful or envious). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effect of toe clipping on treefrog survival: Beyond the return rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, J.H.; Rice, K.G.; Mazzotti, F.J.; Percival, H.F.

2008-01-01

Some studies have described a negative effect of toe clipping on return rates of marked anurans, but the return rate is limited in that it does not account for heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We used open population mark-recapture models to estimate both apparent survival (ϕ) and the recapture probability (p) of two treefrog species individually marked by clipping 2–4 toes. We used information-theoretic model selection to examine the effect of toe clipping on survival while accounting for variation in capture probability. The model selection results indicate strong support for an effect of toe clipping on survival of Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and only limited support for an effect of toe clipping on capture probability. We estimate there was a mean absolute decrease in survival of 5.02% and 11.16% for Green Treefrogs with three and four toes removed, respectively, compared to individuals with just two toes removed. Results for Squirrel Treefrogs (Hyla squirella) indicate little support for an effect of toe clipping on survival but may indicate some support for a negative effect on capture probability. We believe that the return rate alone should not be used to examine survival of marked animals because constant capture probability must be assumed, and our examples demonstrate how capture probability may vary over time and among groups. Mark-recapture models provide a method for estimating the effect of toe clipping on anuran survival in situations where unique marks are applied.

Survival and selection of migrating salmon from capture-recapture models with individual traits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zabel, R.W.; Wagner, T.; Congleton, J.L.; Smith, S.G.; Williams, J.G.

2005-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are powerful tools for studying animal population dynamics, providing information on population abundance, survival rates, population growth rates, and selection for phenotypic traits. In these studies, the probability of observing a tagged individual reflects both the probability of the individual surviving to the time of recapture and the probability of recapturing an animal, given that it is alive. If both of these probabilities are related to the same phenotypic trait, it can be difficult to distinguish effects on survival probabilities from effects on recapture probabilities. However, when animals are individually tagged and have multiple opportunities for recapture, we can properly partition observed trait-related variability into survival and recapture components. We present an overview of capture-recapture models that incorporate individual variability and develop methods to incorporate results from these models into estimates of population survival and selection for phenotypic traits. We conducted a series of simulations to understand the performance of these estimators and to assess the consequences of ignoring individual variability when it exists. In addition, we analyzed a large data set of > 153 000 juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) of known length that were PIT-tagged during their seaward migration. Both our simulations and the case study indicated that the ability to precisely estimate selection for phenotypic traits was greatly compromised when differential recapture probabilities were ignored. Estimates of population survival, however, were far more robust. In the chinook salmon and steelhead study, we consistently found that smaller fish had a greater probability of recapture. We also uncovered length-related survival relationships in over half of the release group/river segment combinations that we observed, but we found both positive and negative relationships between length and survival probability. These results have important implications for the management of salmonid populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Survival and metamorphosis of low-density populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in streams following lampricide treatment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Nicholas S.; Swink, William D.; Brenden, Travis O.; Slade, Jeffrey W.; Steeves, Todd B.; Fodale, Michael F.; Jones, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus control in the Great Lakes primarily involves application of lampricides to streams where larval production occurs to kill larvae prior to their metamorphosing and entering the lakes as parasites (juveniles). Because lampricides are not 100% effective, larvae that survive treatment maymetamorphose before streams are again treated. Larvae that survive treatment have not beenwidely studied, so their dynamics are notwell understood.Wetagged and released larvae in six Great Lake tributaries following lampricide treatment and estimated vital demographic rates using multistate tag-recovery models. Model-averaged larval survivals ranged from 56.8 to 57.6%. Model-averaged adult recovery rates, which were the product of juvenile survivals and adult capture probabilities, ranged from 6.8 to 9.3%. Using stochastic simulations, we estimated production of juvenile sea lampreys from a hypothetical population of treatment survivors under different growth conditions based on parameter estimates from this research. For fast-growing populations, juvenile production peaked 2 years after treatment. For slow-growing populations, juvenile production was approximately one-third that of fast-growing populations,with production not peaking until 4 years after treatment. Our results suggest that dynamics (i.e., survival, metamorphosis) of residual larval populations are very similar to those of untreated larval populations. Consequently, residual populations do not necessarily warrant special consideration for the purpose of sea lamprey control and can be ranked for treatment along with other populations. Consecutive lampricide treatments, which are under evaluation by the sea lamprey control program, would bemost effective for reducing juvenile production in large, fast-growing populations.

Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2016-12-30

Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dispersal and survival of a polygynandrous passerine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Wild, Teri C.; Powell, Abby N.

2015-01-01

Although sex biases in survival and dispersal are thought to be linked to avian mating systems, little is known about these demographic patterns in less common mating strategies such as polygynandry. We investigated breeding-site fidelity, natal philopatry, and apparent survival of the polygynandrous Smith's Longspur (Calcarius pictus) over a 7-yr period at 2 areas in Alaska's Brooks Range. We used capture–recapture histories of 243 color-banded adults and 431 juveniles to estimate annual survival and determined dispersal patterns from 34 adults that were found breeding within the study areas over multiple years. Most adults (88%) returned to nest in the same breeding neighborhood as in previous years; mean dispersal distance was 300.9 ± 74.2 m and did not differ between sexes. Juveniles exhibited low natal philopatry; only 4% of banded hatch-year birds were resighted as adults during subsequent years. Those that did return dispersed, on average, 1,674.4 ± 465.8 m from their natal nests (n = 6). Model-averaged survival estimates indicated that annual survival of adult females (50–58%) was only slightly lower than that of males (60–63%); juvenile survival was 41% but was paired with a low (13%) encounter probability. We attribute the lack of sex bias in adult dispersal to this species' polygynandrous mating strategy. Within this system, there are multiple mates within a breeding neighborhood. We argue that natural selection may favor females that remain on the same, familiar breeding site, because they do not have to disperse to a new area to find a suitable mate. Dispersal among breeding populations most likely occurs by juveniles returning as adults. Our findings support hypotheses that suggest a relationship between dispersal and mating strategy and provide some of the first insight into the demographic patterns of a polygynandrous passerine.

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations formore » such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.« less

Costs of counterdefenses to host resistance in a parasitoid of Drosophila.

PubMed

Kraaijeveld, A R; Hutcheson, K A; Limentani, E C; Godfray, H C

2001-09-01

The ability of a parasitoid to evolve enhanced counterdefenses against host resistance and its possible costs were studied in a Drosophila-parasitoid system. We reared Asobara tabida (Braconidae, Hymenoptera) exclusively on D. melanogaster to impose artificial selection for improved counterdefenses against cellular encapsulation, the main host defense against parasitism. Controls were reared on D. subobscura, the main host of the population of wasps from which the laboratory culture was derived and a species that never encapsulates parasitoids. We observed improved survival and avoidance of encapsulation in all five selection lines compared to their paired control lines, although there was unexpected variation among pairs. Improved survival was associated with parasitoid eggs becoming embedded in host tissue, where they were protected from circulating haemocytes. There were no differences among lines in average adult size, fat content, egg load, or performance on D. subobscura. However, the duration of the egg stage in selection lines was longer than that of control lines, probably because of reduced nutrient and/or oxygen supply when eggs are embedded in host tissue. We suggest that this delay in hatching reduces the probability of parasitoid survival if another parasitoid egg is laid in the same host (superparasitism or multiparasitism) and hence is a cost of enhanced counterdefenses against host resistance.

The profile of wounding in civilian public mass shooting fatalities.

PubMed

Smith, Edward Reed; Shapiro, Geoff; Sarani, Babak

2016-07-01

The incidence and severity of civilian public mass shootings (CPMS) continue to rise. Initiatives predicated on lessons learned from military woundings have placed strong emphasis on hemorrhage control, especially via use of tourniquets, as means to improve survival. We hypothesize that both the overall wounding pattern and the specific fatal wounds in CPMS events are different from those in military combat fatalities and thus may require a new management strategy. A retrospective study of autopsy reports for all victims involved in 12 CPMS events was performed. Civilian public mass shootings was defined using the FBI and the Congressional Research Service definition. The site of injury, probable site of fatal injury, and presence of potentially survivable injury (defined as survival if prehospital care is provided within 10 minutes and trauma center care within 60 minutes of injury) was determined independently by each author. A total 139 fatalities consisting of 371 wounds from 12 CPMS events were reviewed. All wounds were due to gunshots. Victims had an average of 2.7 gunshots. Relative to military reports, the case fatality rate was significantly higher, and incidence of potentially survivable injuries was significantly lower. Overall, 58% of victims had gunshots to the head and chest, and only 20% had extremity wounds. The probable site of fatal wounding was the head or chest in 77% of cases. Only 7% of victims had potentially survivable wounds. The most common site of potentially survivable injury was the chest (89%). No head injury was potentially survivable. There were no deaths due to exsanguination from an extremity. The overall and fatal wounding patterns following CPMS are different from those resulting from combat operations. Given that no deaths were due to extremity hemorrhage, a treatment strategy that goes beyond use of tourniquets is needed to rescue the few victims with potentially survivable injuries. Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level IV; therapeutic/care management study, level V.

Adult survival and productivity of Northern Fulmars in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.

1987-01-01

The population dynamics of Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were studied at the Semidi Islands in the western Gulf of Alaska. Fulmars occurred in a broad range of color phases, and annual survival was estimated from the return of birds in the rarer plumage classes. A raw estimate of mean annual survival over a 5-year period was 0.963, but a removal experiment indicated the raw value was probably biased downward. The estimate of annual survival adjusted accordingly was 0.969. Mortality during the breeding season was less than 10% of the annual total, and postbreeding mortality of failed breeders was three to four times higher than that of successful breeders. Breeding success averaged 41% over 9 years. About 5% of experienced birds failed to breed each year due to physical destruction of their breeding sites, mate-loss, or other causes. An estimated 30% of the birds near the colony in one year were of prebreeding age. A comparison of population parameters in Pacific and Atlantic fulmars indicates that higher survival in the prebreeding years is the likely basis for population growth in the northeastern Atlantic. The correlation of breeding success and survival suggests both parameters may decline with age.

Delayed bet-hedging resilience strategies under environmental fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogura, Masaki; Wakaiki, Masashi; Rubin, Harvey; Preciado, Victor M.

2017-05-01

Many biological populations, such as bacterial colonies, have developed through evolution a protection mechanism, called bet hedging, to increase their probability of survival under stressful environmental fluctuation. In this context, the concept of preadaptation refers to a common type of bet-hedging protection strategy in which a relatively small number of individuals in a population stochastically switch their phenotypes to a dormant metabolic state in which they increase their probability of survival against potential environmental shocks. Hence, if an environmental shock took place at some point in time, preadapted organisms would be better adapted to survive and proliferate once the shock is over. In many biological populations, the mechanisms of preadaptation and proliferation present delays whose influence in the fitness of the population are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze the role of delays in both preadaptation and proliferation mechanisms in the survival of biological populations, with an emphasis on bacterial colonies. Our theoretical framework allows us to analytically quantify the average growth rate of a bet-hedging bacterial colony with stochastically delayed reactions with arbitrary precision. We verify the accuracy of the proposed method by numerical simulations and conclude that the growth rate of a bet-hedging population shows a nontrivial dependency on their preadaptation and proliferation delays. Contrary to the current belief, our results show that faster reactions do not, in general, increase the overall fitness of a biological population.

Survival of Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 on strawberries, basil, and other leafy greens during storage.

PubMed

Delbeke, Stefanie; Ceuppens, Siele; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2015-04-01

The survival of Salmonella and Escherichia coli O157:H7 on strawberries, basil leaves, and other leafy greens (spinach leaves, lamb and butterhead lettuce leaves, baby leaves, and fresh-cut iceberg lettuce) was assessed at cold (<7 °C) and ambient temperatures. All commodities were spot inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 or Salmonella to obtain an initial inoculum of 5 to 6 log and 4 to 5 log CFU/g for strawberries and leafy greens, respectively. Samples were air packed. Strawberries were stored at 4, 10, 15, and 22 °C and basil leaves and other leafy greens at 7, 15, and 22 °C for up to 7 days (or less if spoiled before). Both Salmonella and E. coli O157:H7 showed a gradual decrease in numbers if inoculated on strawberries, with a similar reduction observed at 4, 10, and 15 °C (2 to 3 log after 5 days). However, at 15 °C (and 10 °C for E. coli O157:H7), the survival experiment stopped before day 7, as die-off of both pathogens below the lower limit of detection was achieved or spoilage occurred. At 22 °C, strawberries were moldy after 2 or 4 days. At that time, a 1- to 2-log reduction of both pathogens had occurred. A restricted die-off (on average 1.0 log) and increase (on average , 0.5 log) of both pathogens on basil leaves occurred after 7 days of storage at 7 and 22 °C, respectively. On leafy greens, a comparable decrease as on basil was observed after 3 days at 7 °C. At 22 °C, both pathogens increased to higher numbers on fresh-cut iceberg and butterhead lettuce leaves (on average 1.0 log), probably due to the presence of exudates. However, by using spot inoculation, the increase was rather limited, probably due to minimized contact between the inoculum and cell exudates. Avoiding contamination, in particular, at cultivation (and harvest or postharvest) is important, as both pathogens survive during storage, and strawberries, basil, and other leafy green leaves are consumed without inactivation treatment.

Modeling post-fledging survival of lark buntings in response to ecological and biological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2006-01-01

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages ≤3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages ≤3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 ± 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 ± 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.

Individual-tree probability of survival model for the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Richard M. Teck; Donald E. Hilt

1990-01-01

Describes a distance-independent individual-free probability of survival model for the Northeastern United States. Survival is predicted using a sixparameter logistic function with species-specific coefficients. Coefficients are presented for 28 species groups. The model accounts for variability in annual survival due to species, tree size, site quality, and the tree...

The lifetime cost of hepatocellular carcinoma : a claims data analysis from a medical centre in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lang, Hui-Chu; Wu, Jaw-Ching; Yen, Sang-Hue; Lan, Chung-Fu; Wu, Shi-Liang

2008-01-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second most common cancer in Taiwan. For males in Taiwan, it is the most dangerous cancer, with both the highest incidence and mortality rate. To determine cancer-related medical care costs for long-term survivors of HCC. The estimation of the lifetime cost was based on the insurer perspective and adopted an incidence-based approach. Data was sourced from the 1999-2002 cancer registry statistics of patients with HCC and the claims data of Taipei Veterans General Hospital (TVGH). In total there were 2873 HCC patients at TVGH. In addition to this data, the research used population National Health Insurance claims data from the National Health Research Institutes (1996-2002) as the comparison group. The probabilities of survival, dying of cancer or dying of other causes were estimated using cancer registry statistics. To estimate lifetime (10-year) cost, we divided the disease process into three phases: initial, continuing and terminal. The cost of HCC was calculated as the sum of the average cost of each phase. The expected lifetime cost for treatment of an HCC patient was estimated by incorporating the phase-specific costs with the survival and mortality rates. The results showed that 895 patients survived <1 year, and treatment for each of these patients cost on average New Taiwan dollars ($NT) 206 573 ($US 1 = $NT 33, year 2002 value) over this period. For those who survived > or =1 year, the terminal phase of treatment resulted in the highest costs, $NT 237 032. On average, for each patient, the initial phase cost was $NT 140 403 and the monthly cost for the continuing phase was $NT 8687. For the average HCC patient, the 10-year lifetime cost was $NT 418 554 (in nominal $NT). Our study showed that the terminal phase cost the most out of the three treatment phases. The aggregate lifetime cost of HCC is useful for health policy making and clinical decision making.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blums, P.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lindberg, M.; Mednis, A.

2005-01-01

Questions about individual variation in 'quality' and fitness are of great interest to evolutionary and population ecologists. Such variation can be investigated using either a random effects approach or an approach that relies on identifying observable traits that are themselves correlated with fitness components. We used the latter approach with data from 1,925 individual females of three species of ducks (tufted duck, Aythya fuligula; common pochard, Aythya ferina; northern shoveler, Anas clypeata) sampled on their breeding grounds at Engure Marsh, Latvia, for over 15 years. Based on associations with reproductive output, we selected two traits, one morphological (relative body condition) and one behavioral (relative time of nesting), that can be used to characterize individual females over their lifetimes. We then asked whether these traits were related to annual survival probabilities of nesting females. We hypothesized quadratic, rather than monotonic, relationships based loosely on ideas about the likely action of stabilizing selection on these two traits. Parameters of these relationships were estimated directly using ultrastructural models embedded within capture-recapture-band-recovery models. Results provided evidence that both traits were related to survival in the hypothesized manner. For all three species, females that tended to nest earlier than the norm exhibited the highest survival rates, but very early nesters experienced reduced survival and late nesters showed even lower survival. For shovelers, females in average body condition showed the highest survival, with lower survival rates exhibited by both heavy and light birds. For common pochard and tufted duck, the highest survival rates were associated with birds of slightly above-average condition, with somewhat lower survival for very heavy birds and much lower survival for birds in relatively poor condition. Based on results from this study and previous work on reproduction, we conclude that nest initiation date and body condition covary with both reproductive and survival components of fitness. These associations lead to a positive covariance of these two fitness components within individuals and to the conclusion that these two traits are indeed correlates of individual quality.

The effects of raking on sugar pine mortality following prescribed fire in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; O'Hara, Kevin L.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; de Valpine, Perry

2010-01-01

Prescribed fire is an important tool for fuel reduction, the control of competing vegetation, and forest restoration. The accumulated fuels associated with historical fire exclusion can cause undesirably high tree mortality rates following prescribed fires and wildfires. This is especially true for sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Douglas), which is already negatively affected by the introduced pathogen white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fisch. ex Rabenh). We tested the efficacy of raking away fuels around the base of sugar pine to reduce mortality following prescribed fire in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, California, USA. This study was conducted in three prescribed fires and included 457 trees, half of which had the fuels around their bases raked away to mineral soil to 0.5 m away from the stem. Fire effects were assessed and tree mortality was recorded for three years after prescribed fires. Overall, raking had no detectable effect on mortality: raked trees averaged 30% mortality compared to 36% for unraked trees. There was a significant effect, however, between the interaction of raking and average pre-treatment forest floor fuel depth: the predicted probability of survival of a 50 cm dbh tree was 0.94 vs. 0.96 when average pre-treatment fuel depth was 0 cm for a raked and unraked tree, respectively. When average pre-treatment forest floor fuel depth was 30 cm, the predicted probability of survival for a raked 50 cm dbh tree was 0.60 compared to only 0.07 for an unraked tree. Raking did not affect mortality when fire intensity, measured as percent crown volume scorched, was very low (0% scorch) or very high (>80% scorch), but the raking treatment significantly increased the proportion of trees that survived by 9.6% for trees that burned under moderate fire intensity (1% to 80% scorch). Raking significantly reduced the likelihood of bole charring and bark beetle activity three years post fire. Fuel depth and anticipated fire intensity need to be accounted for to maximize the effectiveness of the treatments. Raking is an important management option to reduce tree mortality from prescribed fire, but is most effective under specific fuel and burning conditions.

Solution of the Generalized Noah's Ark Problem.

PubMed

Billionnet, Alain

2013-01-01

The phylogenetic diversity (PD) of a set of species is a measure of the evolutionary distance among the species in the collection, based on a phylogenetic tree. Such a tree is composed of a root, internal nodes, and leaves that correspond to the set of taxa under study. With each edge of the tree is associated a non-negative branch length (evolutionary distance). If a particular survival probability is associated with each taxon, the PD measure becomes the expected PD measure. In the Noah's Ark Problem (NAP) introduced by Weitzman (1998), these survival probabilities can be increased at some cost. The problem is to determine how best to allocate a limited amount of resources to maximize the expected PD of the considered species. It is easy to formulate the NAP as a (difficult) nonlinear 0-1 programming problem. The aim of this article is to show that a general version of the NAP (GNAP) can be solved simply and efficiently with any set of edge weights and any set of survival probabilities by using standard mixed-integer linear programming software. The crucial point to move from a nonlinear program in binary variables to a mixed-integer linear program, is to approximate the logarithmic function by the lower envelope of a set of tangents to the curve. Solving the obtained mixed-integer linear program provides not only a near-optimal solution but also an upper bound on the value of the optimal solution. We also applied this approach to a generalization of the nature reserve problem (GNRP) that consists of selecting a set of regions to be conserved so that the expected PD of the set of species present in these regions is maximized. In this case, the survival probabilities of different taxa are not independent of each other. Computational results are presented to illustrate potentialities of the approach. Near-optimal solutions with hypothetical phylogenetic trees comprising about 4000 taxa are obtained in a few seconds or minutes of computing time for the GNAP, and in about 30 min for the GNRP. In all the cases the average guarantee varies from 0% to 1.20%.

Interplanetary survival probability of Aspergillus terreus spores under simulated solar vacuum ultraviolet irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarantopoulou, E.; Gomoiu, I.; Kollia, Z.; Cefalas, A. C.

2011-01-01

This work is a part of ESA/EU SURE project aiming to quantify the survival probability of fungal spores in space under solar irradiation in the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) (110-180 nm) spectral region. The contribution and impact of VUV photons, vacuum, low temperature and their synergies on the survival probability of Aspergillus terreus spores is measured at simulated space conditions on Earth. To simulate the solar VUV irradiation, the spores are irradiated with a continuous discharge VUV hydrogen photon source and a molecular fluorine laser, at low and high photon intensities at 10 15 photon m -2 s -1 and 3.9×10 27 photons pulse -1 m -2 s -1, respectively. The survival probability of spores is independent from the intensity and the fluence of photons, within certain limits, in agreement with previous studies. The spores are shielded from a thin carbon layer, which is formed quickly on the external surface of the proteinaceous membrane at higher photon intensities at the start of the VUV irradiation. Extrapolating the results in space conditions, for an interplanetary direct transfer orbit from Mars to Earth, the spores will be irradiated with 3.3×10 21 solar VUV photons m -2. This photon fluence is equivalent to the irradiation of spores on Earth with 54 laser pulses with an experimental ˜92% survival probability, disregarding the contribution of space vacuum and low temperature, or to continuous solar VUV irradiation for 38 days in space near the Earth with an extrapolated ˜61% survival probability. The experimental results indicate that the damage of spores is mainly from the dehydration stress in vacuum. The high survival probability after 4 days in vacuum (˜34%) is due to the exudation of proteins on the external membrane, thus preventing further dehydration of spores. In addition, the survival probability is increasing to ˜54% at 10 K with 0.12 K/s cooling and heating rates.

Is Survival Better at Hospitals With Higher “End-of-Life” Treatment Intensity?

PubMed Central

Barnato, Amber E.; Chang, Chung-Chou H.; Farrell, Max H.; Lave, Judith R.; Roberts, Mark S.; Angus, Derek C.

2013-01-01

Background Concern regarding wide variations in spending and intensive care unit use for patients at the end of life hinges on the assumption that such treatment offers little or no survival benefit. Objective To explore the relationship between hospital “end-of-life” (EOL) treatment intensity and postadmission survival. Research Design Retrospective cohort analysis of Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council discharge data April 2001 to March 2005 linked to vital statistics data through September 2005 using hospital-level correlation, admission-level marginal structural logistic regression, and pooled logistic regression to approximate a Cox survival model. Subjects A total of 1,021,909 patients ≥65 years old, incurring 2,216,815 admissions in 169 Pennsylvania acute care hospitals. Measures EOL treatment intensity (a summed index of standardized intensive care unit and life-sustaining treatment use among patients with a high predicted probability of dying [PPD] at admission) and 30- and 180-day postadmission mortality. Results There was a nonlinear negative relationship between hospital EOL treatment intensity and 30-day mortality among all admissions, although patients with higher PPD derived the greatest benefit. Compared with admission at an average intensity hospital, admission to a hospital 1 standard deviation below versus 1 standard deviation above average intensity resulted in an adjusted odds ratio of mortality for admissions at low PPD of 1.06 (1.04–1.08) versus 0.97 (0.96–0.99); average PPD: 1.06 (1.04–1.09) versus 0.97 (0.96–0.99); and high PPD: 1.09 (1.07–1.11) versus 0.97 (0.95– 0.99), respectively. By 180 days, the benefits to intensity attenuated (low PPD: 1.03 [1.01–1.04] vs. 1.00 [0.98–1.01]; average PPD: 1.03 [1.02–1.05] vs. 1.00 [0.98–1.01]; and high PPD: 1.06 [1.04–1.09] vs. 1.00 [0.98–1.02]), respectively. Conclusions Admission to higher EOL treatment intensity hospitals is associated with small gains in postadmission survival. The marginal returns to intensity diminish for admission to hospitals above average EOL treatment intensity and wane with time. PMID:20057328

Does Breast Cancer Drive the Building of Survival Probability Models among States? An Assessment of Goodness of Fit for Patient Data from SEER Registries

PubMed

Khan, Hafiz; Saxena, Anshul; Perisetti, Abhilash; Rafiq, Aamrin; Gabbidon, Kemesha; Mende, Sarah; Lyuksyutova, Maria; Quesada, Kandi; Blakely, Summre; Torres, Tiffany; Afesse, Mahlet

2016-12-01

Background: Breast cancer is a worldwide public health concern and is the most prevalent type of cancer in women in the United States. This study concerned the best fit of statistical probability models on the basis of survival times for nine state cancer registries: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Utah, and Washington. Materials and Methods: A probability random sampling method was applied to select and extract records of 2,000 breast cancer patients from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database for each of the nine state cancer registries used in this study. EasyFit software was utilized to identify the best probability models by using goodness of fit tests, and to estimate parameters for various statistical probability distributions that fit survival data. Results: Statistical analysis for the summary of statistics is reported for each of the states for the years 1973 to 2012. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-squared goodness of fit test values were used for survival data, the highest values of goodness of fit statistics being considered indicative of the best fit survival model for each state. Conclusions: It was found that California, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, and Washington followed the Burr probability distribution, while the Dagum probability distribution gave the best fit for Michigan and Utah, and Hawaii followed the Gamma probability distribution. These findings highlight differences between states through selected sociodemographic variables and also demonstrate probability modeling differences in breast cancer survival times. The results of this study can be used to guide healthcare providers and researchers for further investigations into social and environmental factors in order to reduce the occurrence of and mortality due to breast cancer. Creative Commons Attribution License

Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

2016-01-01

In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

2004-01-01

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

Optimal two-stage dynamic treatment regimes from a classification perspective with censored survival data.

PubMed

Hager, Rebecca; Tsiatis, Anastasios A; Davidian, Marie

2018-05-18

Clinicians often make multiple treatment decisions at key points over the course of a patient's disease. A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules, each mapping a patient's observed history to the set of available, feasible treatment options at each decision point, and thus formalizes this process. An optimal regime is one leading to the most beneficial outcome on average if used to select treatment for the patient population. We propose a method for estimation of an optimal regime involving two decision points when the outcome of interest is a censored survival time, which is based on maximizing a locally efficient, doubly robust, augmented inverse probability weighted estimator for average outcome over a class of regimes. By casting this optimization as a classification problem, we exploit well-studied classification techniques such as support vector machines to characterize the class of regimes and facilitate implementation via a backward iterative algorithm. Simulation studies of performance and application of the method to data from a sequential, multiple assignment randomized clinical trial in acute leukemia are presented. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Cyber-Physical Correlations for Infrastructure Resilience: A Game-Theoretic Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; He, Fei; Ma, Chris Y. T.

In several critical infrastructures, the cyber and physical parts are correlated so that disruptions to one affect the other and hence the whole system. These correlations may be exploited to strategically launch components attacks, and hence must be accounted for ensuring the infrastructure resilience, specified by its survival probability. We characterize the cyber-physical interactions at two levels: (i) the failure correlation function specifies the conditional survival probability of cyber sub-infrastructure given the physical sub-infrastructure as a function of their marginal probabilities, and (ii) the individual survival probabilities of both sub-infrastructures are characterized by first-order differential conditions. We formulate a resiliencemore » problem for infrastructures composed of discrete components as a game between the provider and attacker, wherein their utility functions consist of an infrastructure survival probability term and a cost term expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions and sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost term, correlation function and sub-infrastructure survival probabilities. These results generalize earlier ones based on linear failure correlation functions and independent component failures. We apply the results to models of cloud computing infrastructures and energy grids.« less

Factors affecting establishment success of the endangered Caribbean cactus Harrisia portoricensis (Cactaceae).

PubMed

Rojas-Sandoval, Julissa; Meléndez-Ackerman, Elvia

2012-06-01

Early plant stages may be the most vulnerable within the life cycle of plants especially in arid ecosystems. Interference from exotic species may exacerbate this condition. We evaluated germination, seedling survival and growth in the endangered Caribbean cactus Harrisia portoricensis, as a function of sunlight exposure (i.e., growing under open and shaded areas), different shade providers (i.e., growing under two native shrubs and one exotic grass species), two levels of predation (i.e., exclusion and non-exclusion) and variable microenvironmental conditions (i.e., temperature, PAR, humidity). Field experiments demonstrated that suitable conditions for germination and establishment of H. portoricensis seedling are optimal in shaded areas beneath the canopy of established species, but experiments also demonstrated that the identity of the shade provider can have a significant influence on the outcome of these processes. Harrisia portoricensis seedlings had higher probabilities of survival and grew better (i.e., larger diameters) when they were transplanted beneath the canopy of native shrubs, than beneath the exotic grass species, where temperature and solar radiation values were on average much higher than those obtained under the canopies of native shrubs. We also detected that exclusion from potential predators did not increase seedling survival. Our combined results for H. portoricensis suggested that the modification of microenvironmental conditions by the exotic grass may lower the probability of recruitment and establishment of this endangered cactus species.

Survival of Parents and Siblings of Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V.; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T.

2011-01-01

Background Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age ≥ 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Methods Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Results Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians’ siblings was ~81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%–20% (12–14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%–14% (8–10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. Conclusions The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility. PMID:17895443

Survival of parents and siblings of supercentenarians.

PubMed

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T

2007-09-01

Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age >or= 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians' siblings was approximately 81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%-20% (12-14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%-14% (8-10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility.

Survival, causes of mortality, and reproduction in American marten in northeastern Oregon.

Treesearch

Evelyn L. Bull; Thad W. Heater

2001-01-01

Survival rates, causes of mortality, and reproduction in the American marten (Martes americana) were determined in northeastern Oregon from 1994 until 1997 with radiocollared martens. The probability of survival of martens ≥9 mo old was 0.55 for 1 yr, 0.37 for 2 yr, 0.22 for 3 yr, and 0.15 for 4 yr. The mean annual probability of survival...

Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data could result in better informed management decisions and assist in guidance for more effective estuarine restoration projects.

Passage probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon through the powerhouse and regulating outlet at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Hansen, Amy C.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Smith, Collin D.

2012-01-01

Cougar Dam near Springfield, Oregon, is one of several federally owned and operated flood-control projects within the Willamette Valley of western Oregon that were determined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service in 2008 to impact the long-term viability of several salmonid stocks. In response to this ruling, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is looking for means to reduce impacts to salmonids, including improving downstream passage of juvenile salmonids at Cougar Dam. This study of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) passage at Cougar Dam was conducted to inform decisions about potential improvements for downstream fish passage. The primary objective of the study was to estimate route-specific passage probabilities of yearling Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam. The study was conducted using fish from a nearby hatchery surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and released near the entrance of a temperature control tower through which all water going through the dam must pass. Water passing through the temperature control tower may be routed through a penstock to a powerhouse with two Francis turbines, or to a spillway-like structure called the regulating outlet. Secondary objectives of the study were to estimate the probability that fish enter a bypass at a non-federal facility downstream, and to estimate dam-passage and in-river fish survival. Dam operating conditions during the study included an average forebay elevation of 1,580 feet (National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929) and an average of 48.2 percent of the total dam discharge of 1,106 cubic feet per second passing through a regulating outlet opening of 1.25 feet. Dam passage probability was greatest at night (0.8741 standard error [SE] 0.0265) and primarily through the regulating outlet (0.8896 SE 0.0617 day; 0.9417 SE 0.0175 night). The joint probability of entering the bypass at Leaburg Dam and being detected at the PIT system within the bypass was 0.0755 (SE 0.0363), but some fish were known to pass the PIT system undetected, indicating that the true probability of entering the bypass was underestimated. The estimated survival of fish passing through the temperature control tower, through the dam, and to a site at a bridge over the South Fork of the McKenzie River 3.9 kilometers downstream was 0.3680 (SE 0.1322) for fish passing through the powerhouse, and 0.4247 (SE 0.0440) for fish passing through the regulating outlet. The estimated in-river survival through the 37.3 kilometers from the bridge to a site at Leaburg Hatchery on the McKenzie River was 0.5857 (SE 0.2227) for fish that had passed through the powerhouse, and 0.4537 (SE 0.0551) for fish that had passed through the regulating outlet.

Population dynamics of the Concho water snake in rivers and reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiting, M.J.; Dixon, J.R.; Greene, B.D.; Mueller, J.M.; Thornton, O.W.; Hatfield, J.S.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2008-01-01

The Concho Water Snake (Nerodia harteri paucimaculata) is confined to the Concho–Colorado River valley of central Texas, thereby occupying one of the smallest geographic ranges of any North American snake. In 1986, N. h. paucimaculata was designated as a federally threatened species, in large part because of reservoir projects that were perceived to adversely affect the amount of habitat available to the snake. During a ten-year period (1987–1996), we conducted capture–recapture field studies to assess dynamics of five subpopulations of snakes in both natural (river) and man-made (reservoir) habitats. Because of differential sampling of subpopulations, we present separate results for all five subpopulations combined (including large reservoirs) and three of the five subpopulations (excluding large reservoirs). We used multistate capture–recapture models to deal with stochastic transitions between pre-reproductive and reproductive size classes and to allow for the possibility of different survival and capture probabilities for the two classes. We also estimated both the finite rate of increase (λ) for a deterministic, stage-based, female-only matrix model using the average litter size, and the average rate of adult population change, λ ˆ, which describes changes in numbers of adult snakes, using a direct capture–recapture approach to estimation. Average annual adult survival was about 0.23 and similar for males and females. Average annual survival for subadults was about 0.14. The parameter estimates from the stage-based projection matrix analysis all yielded asymptotic values of λ < 1, suggesting populations that are not viable. However, the direct estimates of average adult λ for the three subpopulations excluding major reservoirs were λ ˆ  =  1.26, SE ˆ(λ ˆ)  =  0.18 and λ ˆ  =  0.99, SE ˆ(λ ˆ)  =  0.79, based on two different models. Thus, the direct estimation approach did not provide strong evidence of population declines of the riverine subpopulations, but the estimates are characterized by substantial uncertainty.

Conditional long-term survival following minimally invasive robotic mitral valve repair: a health services perspective.

PubMed

Efird, Jimmy T; Griffin, William F; Gudimella, Preeti; O'Neal, Wesley T; Davies, Stephen W; Crane, Patricia B; Anderson, Ethan J; Kindell, Linda C; Landrine, Hope; O'Neal, Jason B; Alwair, Hazaim; Kypson, Alan P; Nifong, Wiley L; Chitwood, W Randolph

2015-09-01

Conditional survival is defined as the probability of surviving an additional number of years beyond that already survived. The aim of this study was to compute conditional survival in patients who received a robotically assisted, minimally invasive mitral valve repair procedure (RMVP). Patients who received RMVP with annuloplasty band from May 2000 through April 2011 were included. A 5- and 10-year conditional survival model was computed using a multivariable product-limit method. Non-smoking men (≤65 years) who presented in sinus rhythm had a 96% probability of surviving at least 10 years if they survived their first year following surgery. In contrast, recent female smokers (>65 years) with preoperative atrial fibrillation only had an 11% probability of surviving beyond 10 years if alive after one year post-surgery. In the context of an increasingly managed healthcare environment, conditional survival provides useful information for patients needing to make important treatment decisions, physicians seeking to select patients most likely to benefit long-term following RMVP, and hospital administrators needing to comparatively assess the life-course economic value of high-tech surgical procedures.

Overwinter survival of neotropical migratory birds in early successional and mature tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Powell, G.V.N.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

Many Neotropical migratory species inhabit both mature and early successional forest on their wintering grounds, yet comparisons of survival rates between habitats are lacking. Consequently, the factors affecting habitat suitability for Neotropical migrants and the potential effects of tropical deforestation on migrants are not well understood. We estimated over-winter survival and capture probabilities of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina), and Kentucky Warbler (Oporomis formosus) inhabiting two common tropical habitat types, mature and early-successional forest. Our results suggest that large differences (for example, ratio of survival rates (gamma) < 0.85) in overwinter survival between these habitats do not exist for any of these species. Age ratios did not differ between habitats, but males were more common in forest habitats and females more common in successional habitats for Hooded Warblers and Kentucky Warblers. Future research on overwinter survival should address the need for age- and sex-specific survival estimates before we can draw strong conclusions regarding winter habitat suitability. Our estimates of over-winter survival extrapolated to annual survival rates that were generally lower than previous estimates of annual survival of migratory birds. Capture probability differed between habitats for Kentucky Warblers, but our results provide strong evidence against large differences in capture probability between habitats for Wood Thrush, Hooded Warblers, and Ovenbirds. We found no temporal or among site differences in survival or capture probability for any of the four species. Additional research is needed to examine the effects of winter habitat use on survival during migration and between-winter survival.

A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

PubMed

Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-01

Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

The two-parametric scaling and new temporal asymptotic of survival probability of diffusing particle in the medium with traps.

PubMed

Arkhincheev, V E

2017-03-01

The new asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps in an electric field has been established in two ways-by using the scaling approach and by the direct solution of the diffusion equation in the field. It has shown that at long times, this drift mechanism leads to a new temporal behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps.

The two-parametric scaling and new temporal asymptotic of survival probability of diffusing particle in the medium with traps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhincheev, V. E.

2017-03-01

The new asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps in an electric field has been established in two ways—by using the scaling approach and by the direct solution of the diffusion equation in the field. It has shown that at long times, this drift mechanism leads to a new temporal behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps.

A new algorithm for finding survival coefficients employed in reliability equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Flehinger, B. J.

1973-01-01

Product reliabilities are predicted from past failure rates and reasonable estimate of future failure rates. Algorithm is used to calculate probability that product will function correctly. Algorithm sums the probabilities of each survival pattern and number of permutations for that pattern, over all possible ways in which product can survive.

Duality of circulation decay statistics and survival probability

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Survival probability and circulation decay history have both been used for setting wake turbulence separation standards. Conceptually a strong correlation should exist between these two characterizations of the vortex behavior, however, the literatur...

Anomalous, non-Gaussian tracer diffusion in crowded two-dimensional environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Surya K.; Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Grebenkov, Denis S.; Metzler, Ralf

2016-01-01

A topic of intense current investigation pursues the question of how the highly crowded environment of biological cells affects the dynamic properties of passively diffusing particles. Motivated by recent experiments we report results of extensive simulations of the motion of a finite sized tracer particle in a heterogeneously crowded environment made up of quenched distributions of monodisperse crowders of varying sizes in finite circular two-dimensional domains. For given spatial distributions of monodisperse crowders we demonstrate how anomalous diffusion with strongly non-Gaussian features arises in this model system. We investigate both biologically relevant situations of particles released either at the surface of an inner domain or at the outer boundary, exhibiting distinctly different features of the observed anomalous diffusion for heterogeneous distributions of crowders. Specifically we reveal an asymmetric spreading of tracers even at moderate crowding. In addition to the mean squared displacement (MSD) and local diffusion exponent we investigate the magnitude and the amplitude scatter of the time averaged MSD of individual tracer trajectories, the non-Gaussianity parameter, and the van Hove correlation function. We also quantify how the average tracer diffusivity varies with the position in the domain with a heterogeneous radial distribution of crowders and examine the behaviour of the survival probability and the dynamics of the tracer survival probability. Inter alia, the systems we investigate are related to the passive transport of lipid molecules and proteins in two-dimensional crowded membranes or the motion in colloidal solutions or emulsions in effectively two-dimensional geometries, as well as inside supercrowded, surface adhered cells.

On defense strategies for system of systems using aggregated correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Imam, Neena; Ma, Chris Y. T.

2017-04-01

We consider a System of Systems (SoS) wherein each system Si, i = 1; 2; ... ;N, is composed of discrete cyber and physical components which can be attacked and reinforced. We characterize the disruptions using aggregate failure correlation functions given by the conditional failure probability of SoS given the failure of an individual system. We formulate the problem of ensuring the survival of SoS as a game between an attacker and a provider, each with a utility function composed of asurvival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the number of components attacked and reinforced.more » The survival probabilities of systems satisfy simple product-form, first-order differential conditions, which simplify the Nash Equilibrium (NE) conditions. We derive the sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of SoS survival probability at NE on cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities.We apply these results to a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure.« less

["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

PubMed

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

2009-01-01

To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

2013-01-01

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

The Formalism of Generalized Contexts and Decay Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losada, Marcelo; Laura, Roberto

2013-04-01

The formalism of generalized contexts for quantum histories is used to investigate the possibility to consider the survival probability as the probability of no decay property at a given time conditional to no decay property at an earlier time. A negative result is found for an isolated system. The inclusion of two quantum measurement instruments at two different times makes possible to interpret the survival probability as a conditional probability of the whole system.

[WebSurvCa: web-based estimation of death and survival probabilities in a cohort].

PubMed

Clèries, Ramon; Ameijide, Alberto; Buxó, Maria; Vilardell, Mireia; Martínez, José Miguel; Alarcón, Francisco; Cordero, David; Díez-Villanueva, Ana; Yasui, Yutaka; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Vilardell, Maria Loreto; Carulla, Marià; Galceran, Jaume; Izquierdo, Ángel; Moreno, Víctor; Borràs, Josep M

2018-01-19

Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population). Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Stochastic and deterministic model of microbial heat inactivation.

PubMed

Corradini, Maria G; Normand, Mark D; Peleg, Micha

2010-03-01

Microbial inactivation is described by a model based on the changing survival probabilities of individual cells or spores. It is presented in a stochastic and discrete form for small groups, and as a continuous deterministic model for larger populations. If the underlying mortality probability function remains constant throughout the treatment, the model generates first-order ("log-linear") inactivation kinetics. Otherwise, it produces survival patterns that include Weibullian ("power-law") with upward or downward concavity, tailing with a residual survival level, complete elimination, flat "shoulder" with linear or curvilinear continuation, and sigmoid curves. In both forms, the same algorithm or model equation applies to isothermal and dynamic heat treatments alike. Constructing the model does not require assuming a kinetic order or knowledge of the inactivation mechanism. The general features of its underlying mortality probability function can be deduced from the experimental survival curve's shape. Once identified, the function's coefficients, the survival parameters, can be estimated directly from the experimental survival ratios by regression. The model is testable in principle but matching the estimated mortality or inactivation probabilities with those of the actual cells or spores can be a technical challenge. The model is not intended to replace current models to calculate sterility. Its main value, apart from connecting the various inactivation patterns to underlying probabilities at the cellular level, might be in simulating the irregular survival patterns of small groups of cells and spores. In principle, it can also be used for nonthermal methods of microbial inactivation and their combination with heat.

Migratory Behavior and Survival of Juvenile Salmonids in the Lower Columbia River, Estuary, and Plume in 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Harnish, Ryan A.; Skalski, John R.

Uncertainty regarding the migratory behavior and survival of juvenile salmonids passing through the lower Columbia River and estuary after negotiating dams on the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) prompted the development and application of the Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS). The JSATS has been used to investigate the survival of juvenile salmonid smolts between Bonneville Dam (river kilometer (rkm) 236) and the mouth of the Columbia River annually since 2004. In 2010, a total of 12,214 juvenile salmonids were implanted with both a passive integrated transponder (PIT) and a JSATS acoustic transmitter. Using detection information from JSATS receivermore » arrays deployed on dams and in the river, estuary, and plume, the survival probability of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts tagged at John Day Dam was estimated form multiple reaches between rkm 153 and 8.3 during the spring. During summer, the survival probability of subyearling Chinook salmon was estimated for the same reaches. In addition, the influence of routes of passage (e.g., surface spill, deep spill, turbine, juvenile bypass system) through the lower three dams on the Columbia River (John Day, The Dalles, and Bonneville) on juvenile salmonid smolt survival probability from the dams to rkm 153 and then between rkm 153 and 8.3 was examined to increase understanding of the immediate and latent effects of dam passage on juvenile salmon survival. Similar to previous findings, survival probability was relatively high (>0.95) for most groups of juvenile salmonids from the Bonneville Dam tailrace to about rkm 50. Downstream of rkm 50 the survival probability of all species and run types we examined decreased markedly. Steelhead smolts suffered the highest mortality in this lower portion of the Columbia River estuary, with only an estimated 60% of the tagged fish surviving to the mouth of the river. In contrast, yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon smolts survived to the mouth of the river at higher rates, with estimated survival probabilities of 84% and 86%, respectively. The influence of route of passage at the lower three dams in the FCRPS on juvenile salmonid survival appeared to be relatively direct and immediate. Significant differences in estimated survival probabilities of juvenile salmonid smolts among groups with different dam passage experiences were often detected between the dams and rkm 153. In contrast, the influence of route of passage on survival to the mouth of the Columbia River was not apparent among the groups of tagged juvenile salmonids with different FCRPS passage experiences after they had already survived to a point about 80 km downstream of Bonneville Dam. Yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts that migrated through the lower estuary in off-channel habitats took two to three times longer to travel through these lower reaches and their estimated survival probabilities were not significantly different from that of their cohorts which migrated in or near the navigation channel. A large proportion of the tagged juvenile salmonids migrating in or near the navigation channel in the lower estuary crossed from the south side of the estuary near Astoria, Oregon and passed through relatively shallow expansive sand flats (Taylor Sands) to the North Channel along the Washington shore of the estuary. This migratory behavior may contribute to the avian predation losses observed on for fish (2 to 12% of fish in this study).« less

Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: Study designs that may help

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marshall, M.R.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wood, L.A.; Cooper, R.J.

2004-01-01

Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site-fidelity to the previous year's territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site-fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area), the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture-mark-recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life-history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi-year capture-recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter-annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more "emigrants" are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01). However, given observed inter-annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large surrounding areas to minimize bias. Therefore, as an alternative protocol, we analyzed the data with subsets of three progressively larger areas surrounding the core. The data subsets provided four estimates of apparent survival that asymptotically approached true survival. This study design and analytical approach is likely to be logistically feasible in field settings and yields estimates of true survival unbiased (bias < 0.03) by incomplete breeding site-fidelity over a range of inter-annual territory movement patterns. The third approach we investigated used a robust design data collection and analysis approach. This approach resulted in estimates of survival that were unbiased (bias < 0.02), but were very imprecise and likely would not yield reliable estimates in field situations. The fourth approach utilized a fixed study area size, but modeled detection probability as a function of bird proximity to the study plot boundary (e.g., those birds closest to the edge are more likely to emigrate). This approach also resulted in estimates of survival that were unbiased (bias < 0.02), but because the individual covariates were normalized, the average capture probability was 0.50, and thus did not provide an accurate estimate of the true capture probability. Our results show that the core-area with surrounding resight-only can provide estimates of survival that are not biased by the effects of incomplete breeding site-fidelity. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

Reliability analysis of redundant systems. [a method to compute transition probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. Y.

1974-01-01

A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.

Emergence and early survival of early versus late seral species in Great Basin restoration in two different soil types

Treesearch

Shauna M. Uselman; Keirith A. Snyder; Elizabeth A. Leger; Sara E. Duke

2015-01-01

Comparing emergence and survival probabilities, early seral natives generally outperformed late seral natives when growing with exotics and had earlier emergence timing, although results differed among functional groups and soil types. In contrast, survival probabilities did not differ between the early and late seral mixes when growing without exotics. Within each...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prentice, John K.; Gardner, David Randall

A methodology was developed for computing the probability that the sensor dart for the 'Near Real-Time Site Characterization for Assured HDBT Defeat' Grand-Challenge LDRD project will survive deployment over a forested region. The probability can be decomposed into three approximately independent probabilities that account for forest coverage, branch density and the physics of an impact between the dart and a tree branch. The probability that a dart survives an impact with a tree branch was determined from the deflection induced by the impact. If a dart that was deflected so that it impacted the ground at an angle of attackmore » exceeding a user-specified, threshold value, the dart was assumed to not survive the impact with the branch; otherwise it was assumed to have survived. A computer code was developed for calculating dart angle of attack at impact with the ground and a Monte Carlo scheme was used to calculate the probability distribution of a sensor dart surviving an impact with a branch as a function of branch radius, length, and height from the ground. Both an early prototype design and the current dart design were used in these studies. As a general rule of thumb, it we observed that for reasonably generic trees and for a threshold angle of attack of 5{sup o} (which is conservative for dart survival), the probability of reaching the ground with an angle of attack less than the threshold is on the order of 30% for the prototype dart design and 60% for the current dart design, though these numbers should be treated with some caution.« less

Colorectal cancer outcomes and treatment patterns in patients too young for average-risk screening.

PubMed

Abdelsattar, Zaid M; Wong, Sandra L; Regenbogen, Scott E; Jomaa, Diana M; Hardiman, Karin M; Hendren, Samantha

2016-03-15

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend initiating screening at age 50 years, the percentage of cancer cases in younger patients is increasing. To the authors' knowledge, the national treatment patterns and outcomes of these patients are largely unknown. The current study was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of the nationally representative Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry for patients diagnosed with CRC from 1998 through 2011. Patients were categorized as being younger or older than the recommended screening age. Differences with regard to stage of disease at diagnosis, patterns of therapy, and disease-specific survival were compared between age groups using multinomial regression, multiple regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, and Weibull survival analysis. Of 258,024 patients with CRC, 37,847 (15%) were aged <50 years. Young patients were more likely to present with regional (relative risk ratio, 1.3; P<.001) or distant (relative risk ratio, 1.5; P<.001) disease. Patients with CRC with distant metastasis in the younger age group were more likely to receive surgical therapy for their primary tumor (adjusted probability: 72% vs 63%; P<.001), and radiotherapy also was more likely in younger patients with CRC (adjusted probability: 53% vs 48%; P<.001). Patients younger than the recommended screening age had better overall disease-specific survival (hazards ratio, 0.77; P<.001), despite a larger percentage of these individuals presenting with advanced disease. Patients with CRC diagnosed at age <50 years are more likely to present with advanced-stage disease. However, they receive more aggressive therapy and achieve longer disease-specific survival, despite the greater percentage of patients with advanced-stage disease. These findings suggest the need for improved risk assessment and screening decisions for younger adults. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Late-life factors associated with healthy aging in older men.

PubMed

Bell, Christina L; Chen, Randi; Masaki, Kamal; Yee, Priscilla; He, Qimei; Grove, John; Donlon, Timothy; Curb, J David; Willcox, D Craig; Poon, Leonard W; Willcox, Bradley J

2014-05-01

To identify potentially modifiable late-life biological, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors associated with overall and healthy survival to age 85. Prospective longitudinal cohort study with 21 years of follow-up (1991-2012). Hawaii Lifespan Study. American men of Japanese ancestry (mean age 75.7, range 71-82) without baseline major clinical morbidity and functional impairments (N = 1,292). Overall survival and healthy survival (free from six major chronic diseases and without physical or cognitive impairment) to age 85. Factors were measured at late-life baseline examinations (1991-1993). Of 1,292 participants, 1,000 (77%) survived to 85 (34% healthy) and 309 (24%) to 95 (<1% healthy). Late-life factors associated with survival and healthy survival included biological (body mass index, ankle-brachial index, cognitive score, blood pressure, inflammatory markers), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity), and sociodemographic factors (education, marital status). Cumulative late-life baseline risk factor models demonstrated that age-standardized (at 70) probability of survival to 95 ranged from 27% (no factors) to 7% (≥ 5 factors); probability of survival to 100 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.1% (≥ 5 factors). Age-standardized (at 70) probability of healthy survival to 90 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.01% (≥ 5 factors). There were nine healthy survivors at 95 and one healthy survivor at 100. Several potentially modifiable risk factors in men in late life (mean age 75.7) were associated with markedly greater probability of subsequent healthy survival and longevity. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-01-15

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Survival and breeding advantages of larger Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) goslings: Within- and among-cohort variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, J.S.; Chelgren, N.D.

2007-01-01

We examined the relationship between mass late in the first summer and survival and return to the natal breeding colony for 12 cohorts (1986-1997) of female Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber methods and the program MARK to analyze capture-recapture data. Models included two kinds of residuals from regressions of mass on days after peak of hatch when goslings were measured; one based on the entire sample (12 cohorts) and the other based only on individuals in the same cohort. Some models contained date of peak of hatch (a group covariate related to lateness of nesting in that year) and mean cohort residual mass. Finally, models allowed survival to vary among cohorts. The best model of encounter probability included an effect of residual mass on encounter probability and allowed encounter probability to vary among age classes and across years. All competitive models contained an effect of one of the estimates of residual mass; relatively larger goslings survived their first year at higher rates. Goslings in cohorts from later years in the analysis tended to have lower first-year survival, after controlling for residual mass, which reflected the generally smaller mean masses for these cohorts but was potentially also a result of population-density effects additional to those on growth. Variation among cohorts in mean mass accounted for 56% of variation among cohorts in first-year survival. Encounter probabilities, which were correlated with breeding probability, increased with relative mass, which suggests that larger goslings not only survived at higher rates but also bred at higher rates. Although our findings support the well-established linkage between gosling mass and fitness, they suggest that additional environmental factors also influence first-year survival.

Bayesian Weibull tree models for survival analysis of clinico-genomic data

PubMed Central

Clarke, Jennifer; West, Mike

2008-01-01

An important goal of research involving gene expression data for outcome prediction is to establish the ability of genomic data to define clinically relevant risk factors. Recent studies have demonstrated that microarray data can successfully cluster patients into low- and high-risk categories. However, the need exists for models which examine how genomic predictors interact with existing clinical factors and provide personalized outcome predictions. We have developed clinico-genomic tree models for survival outcomes which use recursive partitioning to subdivide the current data set into homogeneous subgroups of patients, each with a specific Weibull survival distribution. These trees can provide personalized predictive distributions of the probability of survival for individuals of interest. Our strategy is to fit multiple models; within each model we adopt a prior on the Weibull scale parameter and update this prior via Empirical Bayes whenever the sample is split at a given node. The decision to split is based on a Bayes factor criterion. The resulting trees are weighted according to their relative likelihood values and predictions are made by averaging over models. In a pilot study of survival in advanced stage ovarian cancer we demonstrate that clinical and genomic data are complementary sources of information relevant to survival, and we use the exploratory nature of the trees to identify potential genomic biomarkers worthy of further study. PMID:18618012

[Estimation of infant mortality and life expectancy in the time of the Roman Empire: a methodological examination].

PubMed

Langner, G

1998-01-01

"The first available written source in human history relating to the description of the life expectancy of a living population is a legal text which originates from the Roman jurist Ulpianus (murdered in AD 228). In contrast to the prevailing opinion in demography, I not only do consider the text to be of ¿historical interest'...but to be a document of inestimable worth for evaluating the population survival probability in the Roman empire. The criteria specified by Ulpianus are in line with the ¿pan-human' survival function as described by modern model life tables, when based on adulthood. Values calculated from tomb inscriptions follow the lowest level of the model life tables as well and support Ulpianus' statements. The specifications by Ulpianus for the population of the Roman world empire as a whole in the ¿best fit' with modern life tables lead to an average level of 20 years of life expectancy. As a consequence a high infant mortality rate of almost 400 [per thousand] can be concluded resulting in no more than three children at the age of five in an average family in spite of a high fertility rate." (EXCERPT)

Factors affecting settling, survival, and viability of black bears reintroduced to Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wear, B.J.; Eastridge, R.; Clark, J.D.

2005-01-01

We used radiotelemetry and population modeling techniques to examine factors related to population establishment of black bears (Ursus americanus) reintroduced to Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Arkansas. Our objectives were to determine whether settling (i.e., establishment of a home range at or near the release site), survival, recruitment, and population viability were related to age class of reintroduced bears, presence of cubs, time since release, or number of translocated animals. We removed 23 adult female black bears with 56 cubs from their winter dens at White River NWR and transported them 160 km to man-made den structures at Felsenthal NWR during spring 2000–2002. Total movement and average circuity of adult females decreased from 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year post-emergence (F2,14 =19.7, P < 0.001 and F2,14 =5.76, P=0.015, respectively). Mean first-year post-release survival of adult female bears was 0.624 (SE = 0.110, SEinterannual = 0.144), and the survival rate of their cubs was 0.750 (SE = 0.088, SEinterannual = 0.109). The homing rate (i.e., the proportion of bears that returned to White River NWR) was 13%. Annual survival for female bears that remained at the release site and survived >1-year post-release increased to 0.909 (SE = 0.097, SEinterannual=0.067; Z=3.5, P < 0.001). Based on stochastic population growth simulations, the average annual growth rate (λ) was 1.093 (SD = 0.053) and the probability of extinction with no additional stockings ranged from 0.56-1.30%. The bear population at Felsenthal NWR is at or above the number after which extinction risk declines dramatically, although additional releases of bears could significantly decrease time to population reestablishment. Poaching accounted for at least 3 of the 8 adult mortalities that we documented; illegal kills could be a significant impediment to population re-establishment at Felsenthal NWR should poaching rates escalate.

Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

2011-01-01

In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes.

PubMed

Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

2017-03-01

European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. A total of 14 countries. Consensus groups of PCPs. Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = -0.16, 95% CI -0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = -0.57, 95% CI -0.83 to -0.12; ovary: r = -0.13, 95% CI -0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI -0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.62). There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a "PCP-as-gatekeeper" system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. KEY POINTS European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European countries show a wide variation in the probability of initial presentation to a PCP. The degree to which PCPs act as gatekeepers varies considerably from country to country. There is no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial presentation to a PCP and poorer cancer survival.

Effects of weather on survival in populations of boreal toads in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scherer, R. D.; Muths, E.; Lambert, B.A.

2008-01-01

Understanding the relationships between animal population demography and the abiotic and biotic elements of the environments in which they live is a central objective in population ecology. For example, correlations between weather variables and the probability of survival in populations of temperate zone amphibians may be broadly applicable to several species if such correlations can be validated for multiple situations. This study focuses on the probability of survival and evaluates hypotheses based on six weather variables in three populations of Boreal Toads (Bufo boreas) from central Colorado over eight years. In addition to suggesting a relationship between some weather variables and survival probability in Boreal Toad populations, this study uses robust methods and highlights the need for demographic estimates that are precise and have minimal bias. Capture-recapture methods were used to collect the data, and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in program MARK was used for analysis. The top models included minimum daily winter air temperature, and the sum of the model weights for these models was 0.956. Weaker support was found for the importance of snow depth and the amount of environmental moisture in winter in modeling survival probability. Minimum daily winter air temperature was positively correlated with the probability of survival in Boreal Toads at other sites in Colorado and has been identified as an important covariate in studies in other parts of the world. If air temperatures are an important component of survival for Boreal Toads or other amphibians, changes in climate may have profound impacts on populations. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

The true quantum face of the "exponential" decay: Unstable systems in rest and in motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbanowski, K.

2017-12-01

Results of theoretical studies and numerical calculations presented in the literature suggest that the survival probability P0(t) has the exponential form starting from times much smaller than the lifetime τ up to times t ⪢τ and that P0(t) exhibits inverse power-law behavior at the late time region for times longer than the so-called crossover time T ⪢ τ (The crossover time T is the time when the late time deviations of P0(t) from the exponential form begin to dominate). More detailed analysis of the problem shows that in fact the survival probability P0(t) can not take the pure exponential form at any time interval including times smaller than the lifetime τ or of the order of τ and it has has an oscillating form. We also study the survival probability of moving relativistic unstable particles with definite momentum . These studies show that late time deviations of the survival probability of these particles from the exponential-like form of the decay law, that is the transition times region between exponential-like and non-exponential form of the survival probability, should occur much earlier than it follows from the classical standard considerations.

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Boal, Clint W.; Boydston, Kathy K.

2014-01-01

The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the nesting season that provided visual obstruction from predators.

Quantifying exciton hopping in disordered media with quenching sites: Application to arrays of quantum dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyazaki, Jun

2013-10-01

We present an analytical method for quantifying exciton hopping in an energetically disordered system with quenching sites. The method is subsequently used to provide a quantitative understanding of exciton hopping in a quantum dot (QD) array. Several statistical quantities that characterize the dynamics (survival probability, average number of distinct sites visited, average hopping distance, and average hopping rate in the initial stage) are obtained experimentally by measuring time-resolved fluorescence intensities at various temperatures. The time evolution of these quantities suggests in a quantitative way that at low temperature an exciton tends to be trapped at a local low-energy site, while at room temperature, exciton hopping occurs repeatedly, leading to a large hopping distance. This method will serve to facilitate highly efficient optoelectronic devices using QDs such as photovoltaic cells and light-emitting diodes, since exciton hopping is considered to strongly influence their operational parameters. The presence of a dark QD (quenching site) that exhibits fast decay is also quantified.

Nesting success of Northern Pintails on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

1996-01-01

We studied nesting chronology and success of Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska during the summers of 1991-1993. We found a total of 795 nests during three annual searches of a 27.4 km2 area. Minimum nest density averaged 9.67 nests per km2. Nesting success varied among years and ranged from 43.12% in 1991 to 10.74% in 1993 (average 23.95%). Most nest loss was the result of predation and tidal flooding. Daily nest survival probability declined with nest initiation date in all three years and also varied with nest age in 1992. Clutch size averaged 7.63 ± 0.067 (SE) eggs per nest and was larger than reported for other populations of Northern Pintails. Clutch size declined during the 44-47 day nesting interval at a greater rate than reported for other populations of Northern Pintails. We conclude that sub-arctic and prairie nesting Northern Pintails have similar reproductive potentials.

Factors affecting breeding season survival of Red-Headed Woodpeckers in South Carolina.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilgo, John, C.; Vukovich, Mark

2011-11-18

Red-headed woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) populations have declined in the United States and Canada over the past 40 years. However, few demographic studies have been published on the species and none have addressed adult survival. During 2006-2007, we estimated survival probabilities of 80 radio-tagged red-headed woodpeckers during the breeding season in mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) forests in South Carolina. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate survival within and between years and to evaluate the effects of foliar cover (number of available cover patches), snag density treatment (high density vs. low density), and sex and age of woodpeckers.more » Weekly survival probabilities followed a quadratic time trend, being lowest during mid-summer, which coincided with the late nestling and fledgling period. Avian predation, particularly by Cooper's (Accipiter cooperii) and sharp-shinned hawks (A. striatus), accounted for 85% of all mortalities. Our best-supported model estimated an 18-week breeding season survival probability of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.54-0.85) and indicated that the number of cover patches interacted with sex of woodpeckers to affect survival; females with few available cover patches had a lower probability of survival than either males or females with more cover patches. At the median number of cover patches available (n = 6), breeding season survival of females was 0.82 (95% CI = 0.54-0.94) and of males was 0.60 (95% CI = 0.42-0.76). The number of cover patches available to woodpeckers appeared in all 3 of our top models predicting weekly survival, providing further evidence that woodpecker survival was positively associated with availability of cover. Woodpecker survival was not associated with snag density. Our results suggest that protection of {ge}0.7 cover patches per ha during vegetation control activities in mature pine forests will benefit survival of this Partners In Flight Watch List species.« less

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

PubMed Central

Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Defense strategies for asymmetric networked systems under composite utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell

We consider an infrastructure of networked systems with discrete components that can be reinforced at certain costs to guard against attacks. The communications network plays a critical, asymmetric role of providing the vital connectivity between the systems. We characterize the correlations within this infrastructure at two levels using (a) aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability giventhe failure of an individual system or network, and (b) first order differential conditions on system survival probabilities that characterize component-level correlations. We formulate an infrastructure survival game between an attacker and a provider, who attacks and reinforces individual components, respectively.more » They use the composite utility functions composed of a survival probability term and a cost term, and the previously studiedsum-form and product-form utility functions are their special cases. At Nash Equilibrium, we derive expressions for individual system survival probabilities and the expected total number of operational components. We apply and discuss these estimates for a simplified model of distributed cloud computing infrastructure« less

Coordination of gaze and speech in communication between children with hearing impairment and normal-hearing peers.

PubMed

Sandgren, Olof; Andersson, Richard; van de Weijer, Joost; Hansson, Kristina; Sahlén, Birgitta

2014-06-01

To investigate gaze behavior during communication between children with hearing impairment (HI) and normal-hearing (NH) peers. Ten HI-NH and 10 NH-NH dyads performed a referential communication task requiring description of faces. During task performance, eye movements and speech were tracked. Using verbal event (questions, statements, back channeling, and silence) as the predictor variable, group characteristics in gaze behavior were expressed with Kaplan-Meier survival functions (estimating time to gaze-to-partner) and odds ratios (comparing number of verbal events with and without gaze-to-partner). Analyses compared the listeners in each dyad (HI: n = 10, mean age = 12;6 years, mean better ear pure-tone average = 33.0 dB HL; NH: n = 10, mean age = 13;7 years). Log-rank tests revealed significant group differences in survival distributions for all verbal events, reflecting a higher probability of gaze to the partner's face for participants with HI. Expressed as odds ratios (OR), participants with HI displayed greater odds for gaze-to-partner (ORs ranging between 1.2 and 2.1) during all verbal events. The results show an increased probability for listeners with HI to gaze at the speaker's face in association with verbal events. Several explanations for the finding are possible, and implications for further research are discussed.

Trends and territorial inequalities of incidence and survival of childhood leukaemia and their relations to socioeconomic status in Hungary, 1971-2015.

PubMed

Jakab, Zsuzsanna; Juhasz, Attila; Nagy, Csilla; Schuler, Dezso; Garami, Miklos

2017-09-01

The Hungarian Childhood Cancer Registry, a population-based national registry of the Hungarian Paediatric Haemato-Oncology Network founded in 1971, monitors the incidence and mortality of childhood cancer. Our aims were to carry out a longitudinal study to investigate the trends and spatial inequalities of incidence and survival of leukaemia, and the association between survival and deprivation in Hungary. All cases of childhood leukaemia and myelodysplasia were analysed (3157 cases, 1971-2015, age: 0-14 years). Time trends and the annual percentage change in direct standardized incidence and mortality were assessed. Survival and association with deprivation were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression. Incidence rates of leukaemia (23.5-56.0/million) increased with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1%, determined by an increase in the incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (14.6-39.2/million, AAPC: 1.25%). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant improvement in overall survival over the study period. Starting from 25% of cases surviving 5 years in the 70s; the overall 5-year survival reached 80% by 2010. Survival differences were observed with sex, leukaemia type and age at diagnosis. A reverse association was found in the survival probability of leukaemia by degree of deprivation. The Cox proportional hazards model verified a significant reverse association with deprivation [hazard ratio=1.08 (1.04-1.12)]. This is the first nationwide study to confirm the prognostic role of deprivation on the basis of a large cohort of patients with childhood leukaemia during a 45-year period. To maintain further improvement in treatment results, it is important to detect inequalities. Our results showed that deprivation may also be important in the survival of leukaemia.

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

PubMed

Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

2018-05-01

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p < 0.001 for both; C-statistic = 0.815 for ASCERT and 0.781 for PROM). Prolonged ventilation, stroke, and hospital length of stay were also predictive of long-term death. The ASCERT survival probability calculator was externally validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dead or Alive? Factors Affecting the Survival of Victims during Attacks by Saltwater Crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus) in Australia.

PubMed

Fukuda, Yusuke; Manolis, Charlie; Saalfeld, Keith; Zuur, Alain

2015-01-01

Conflicts between humans and crocodilians are a widespread conservation challenge and the number of crocodile attacks is increasing worldwide. We identified the factors that most effectively decide whether a victim is injured or killed in a crocodile attack by fitting generalized linear models to a 42-year dataset of 87 attacks (27 fatal and 60 non-fatal) by saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus) in Australia. The models showed that the most influential factors were the difference in body mass between crocodile and victim, and the position of victim in relation to the water at the time of an attack. In-water position (for diving, swimming, and wading) had a higher risk than on-water (boating) or on-land (fishing, and hunting near the water's edge) positions. In the in-water position a 75 kg person would have a relatively high probability of survival (0.81) if attacked by a 300 cm crocodile, but the probability becomes much lower (0.17) with a 400 cm crocodile. If attacked by a crocodile larger than 450 cm, the survival probability would be extremely low (<0.05) regardless of the victim's size. These results indicate that the main cause of death during a crocodile attack is drowning and larger crocodiles can drag a victim more easily into deeper water. A higher risk associated with a larger crocodile in relation to victim's size is highlighted by children's vulnerability to fatal attacks. Since the first recently recorded fatal attack involving a child in 2006, six out of nine fatal attacks (66.7%) involved children, and the average body size of crocodiles responsible for these fatal attacks was considerably smaller (384 cm, 223 kg) than that of crocodiles that killed adults (450 cm, 324 kg) during the same period (2006-2014). These results suggest that culling programs targeting larger crocodiles may not be an effective management option to improve safety for children.

Dead or Alive? Factors Affecting the Survival of Victims during Attacks by Saltwater Crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus) in Australia

PubMed Central

Fukuda, Yusuke

2015-01-01

Conflicts between humans and crocodilians are a widespread conservation challenge and the number of crocodile attacks is increasing worldwide. We identified the factors that most effectively decide whether a victim is injured or killed in a crocodile attack by fitting generalized linear models to a 42-year dataset of 87 attacks (27 fatal and 60 non-fatal) by saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus) in Australia. The models showed that the most influential factors were the difference in body mass between crocodile and victim, and the position of victim in relation to the water at the time of an attack. In-water position (for diving, swimming, and wading) had a higher risk than on-water (boating) or on-land (fishing, and hunting near the water's edge) positions. In the in-water position a 75 kg person would have a relatively high probability of survival (0.81) if attacked by a 300 cm crocodile, but the probability becomes much lower (0.17) with a 400 cm crocodile. If attacked by a crocodile larger than 450 cm, the survival probability would be extremely low (<0.05) regardless of the victim’s size. These results indicate that the main cause of death during a crocodile attack is drowning and larger crocodiles can drag a victim more easily into deeper water. A higher risk associated with a larger crocodile in relation to victim’s size is highlighted by children’s vulnerability to fatal attacks. Since the first recently recorded fatal attack involving a child in 2006, six out of nine fatal attacks (66.7%) involved children, and the average body size of crocodiles responsible for these fatal attacks was considerably smaller (384 cm, 223 kg) than that of crocodiles that killed adults (450 cm, 324 kg) during the same period (2006–2014). These results suggest that culling programs targeting larger crocodiles may not be an effective management option to improve safety for children. PMID:25961294

Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVI : Survival and Transportation Effects for Migrating Snake River Hatchery Chinook Salmon and Steelhead: Historical Estimates from 1996-2003.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Skalski, John R.

2007-12-07

In 2005, the University of Washington developed a new statistical model to analyze the combined juvenile and adult detection histories of PIT-tagged salmon migrating through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). This model, implemented by software Program ROSTER (River-Ocean Survival and Transportation Effects Routine), has been used to estimate survival and transportation effects on large temporal and spatial scales for PIT-tagged hatchery spring and summer Chinook salmon and steelhead released in the Snake River Basin from 1996 to 2003. Those results are reported here. Annual estimates of the smolt-to-adult return ratio (SAR), juvenile inriver survival from Lower Granite tomore » Bonneville, the ocean return probability from Bonneville to Bonneville, and adult upriver survival from Bonneville to Lower Granite are reported. Annual estimates of transport-inriver (T/I) ratios and differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) are reported on both a systemwide basis, incorporating all transport dams analyzed, and a dam-specific basis. Transportation effects are estimated only for dams where at least 5,000 tagged smolts were transported from a given upstream release group. Because few tagged hatchery steelhead were transported in these years, no transportation effects are estimated for steelhead. Performance measures include age-1-ocean adult returns for steelhead, but not for Chinook salmon. Annual estimates of SAR from Lower Granite back to Lower Granite averaged 0.71% with a standard error (SE) of 0.18% for spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin for tagged groups released from 1996 through 2003, omitting age-1-ocean (jack) returns. For summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin, the estimates of annual SAR averaged 1.15% (SE=0.31%). Only for the release years 1999 and 2000 did the Chinook SAR approach the target value of 2%, identified by the NPCC as the minimum SAR necessary for recovery. Annual estimates of SAR for hatchery steelhead from the Snake River Basin averaged 0.45% (SE=0.11%), including age-1-ocean returns, for release years 1996 through 2003. For release years when the ocean return probability from Bonneville back to Bonneville could be estimated (i.e., 1999 through 2003), it was estimated that on average approximately 86% of the total integrated mortality for nontransported, tagged hatchery spring and summer Chinook, and 74% for steelhead, occurred during the ocean life stage (i.e., from Bonneville to Bonneville). This suggests that additional monitoring and research efforts should include the ocean and estuary environment. Annual estimates of the systemwide T/I are weighted averages of the dam-specific T/I ratios for each transport dam (with {ge} 5,000 tagged fish transported), weighted by the probabilities of being transported at each dam. The systemwide T/I compares the observed SAR under the existing transportation system with the expected SAR if the transportation system had not been operated. Estimates of 1.0 indicate that the systemwide transportation program has no effect on SAR, while estimates > 1.0 indicate that the transportation program increases SAR. Excluding the 2001 release group, the geometric mean of the systemwide T/I estimates for hatchery spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin was 1.15 (SE=0.03) for release years 1997 through 2003. The geometric mean of the systemwide T/I estimates for hatchery summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin was 1.28 (SE=0.13) for release years 1997 through 2000 and 2003. Estimates were much higher for the 2001 release groups. These estimates reflect transportation from Lower Granite and/or Little Goose for most release years, depending on the number of tagged smolts actually transported at each dam during each release year. Differential post-Bonneville mortality (D) is the ratio of post-Bonneville survival to Lower Granite Dam of transported fish to that of nontransported ('inriver') fish. Excluding the 2001 release year, the geometric mean of the D estimates for hatchery spring Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin was 1.00 (SE=0.09) for release years 1997 through 2003. For hatchery summer Chinook salmon from the Snake River Basin, the geometric mean of the D estimates was 1.32 (SE=0.27) for release years 1997 through 2000 and 2003. These estimates reflect transportation from Lower Granite and/or Little Goose, depending on the number of tagged smolts actually transported at each dam during each release year. Approximately half the point estimates of D for both spring and summer Chinook salmon were 1.0 or greater, indicating that for those release groups, transported fish did not have lower ocean and adult survival than nontransported fish. For those years with estimates of D < 1.0, the systemwide T/I estimates were always {ge} 1.0, indicating that despite lower ocean and adult survival of transported fish, transportation did not lower SAR overall.« less

How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes

PubMed Central

Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

2017-01-01

Objective European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Design Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. Setting A total of 14 countries. Subjects Consensus groups of PCPs. Main outcome measures Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. Results There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = −0.16, 95% CI −0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = −0.57, 95% CI −0.83 to −0.12; ovary: r = −0.13, 95% CI −0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI −0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI −0.31 to 0.62). Conclusions There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a “PCP-as-gatekeeper” system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. Key points European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European countries show a wide variation in the probability of initial presentation to a PCP. The degree to which PCPs act as gatekeepers varies considerably from country to country. There is no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial presentation to a PCP and poorer cancer survival. PMID:28277044

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

R0 for vector-borne diseases: impact of the assumption for the duration of the extrinsic incubation period.

PubMed

Hartemink, Nienke; Cianci, Daniela; Reiter, Paul

2015-03-01

Mathematical modeling and notably the basic reproduction number R0 have become popular tools for the description of vector-borne disease dynamics. We compare two widely used methods to calculate the probability of a vector to survive the extrinsic incubation period. The two methods are based on different assumptions for the duration of the extrinsic incubation period; one method assumes a fixed period and the other method assumes a fixed daily rate of becoming infectious. We conclude that the outcomes differ substantially between the methods when the average life span of the vector is short compared to the extrinsic incubation period.

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Effect of tides, river flow, and gate operations on entrainment of juvenile salmon into the interior Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Burau, Jon R.; Sandstrom, Philip T.; Skalski, John R.

2015-01-01

Juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha emigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River, California, must negotiate the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, the Delta), a complex network of natural and man-made channels linking the Sacramento River with San Francisco Bay. Fish that enter the interior and southern Delta—the region to the south of the Sacramento River where water pumping stations are located—survive at a lower rate than fish that use alternative migration routes. Consequently, total survival decreases as the fraction of the population entering the interior Delta increases, thus spurring management actions to reduce the proportion of fish that are entrained into the interior Delta. To better inform management actions, we modeled entrainment probability as a function of hydrodynamic variables. We fitted alternative entrainment models to telemetry data that identified when tagged fish in the Sacramento River entered two river channels leading to the interior Delta (Georgiana Slough and the gated Delta Cross Channel). We found that the probability of entrainment into the interior Delta through both channels depended strongly on the river flow and tidal stage at the time of fish arrival at the river junction. Fish that arrived during ebb tides had a low entrainment probability, whereas fish that arrived during flood tides (i.e., when the river's flow was reversed) had a high probability of entering the interior Delta. We coupled our entrainment model with a flow simulation model to evaluate the effect of nighttime closures of the Delta Cross Channel gates on the daily probability of fish entrainment into the interior Delta. Relative to 24-h gate closures, nighttime closures increased daily entrainment probability by 3 percentage points on average if fish arrived at the river junction uniformly throughout the day and by only 1.3 percentage points if 85% of fish arrived at night. We illustrate how our model can be used to evaluate the effects of alternative water management actions on fish entrainment into the interior Delta.

Survivorship analysis of Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation in idiopathic scoliosis.

PubMed

Bago, J; Ramirez, M; Pellise, F; Villanueva, C

2003-08-01

This study presents a survivorship analysis of Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation in the surgical treatment of idiopathic scoliosis. Between 1987 and 1995, a total of 133 patients with idiopathic scoliosis received posterior spine fusion and instrumentation with the CD system at our center. The patients' mean age at surgery was 16.5 years (range 11-43 years). The magnitude of the thoracic scoliosis averaged 62.7 degrees (range 40 degrees -125 degrees ) and that of the lumbar curve was 58.8 degrees (range 40 degrees -100 degrees ). On average, 12.2 segments were fused (range 8-17) and, excluding the rods, 14.1 implants were set for each patient (range 10-21). Survivorship analysis was carried out using the Kaplan-Meier method. Implant removal was considered the terminal event, or "death". The effect of several variables on survival rate was determined with the Cox regression method. The patients remained in the study for 56.7 months (range 2-120 months). One-hundred and ten patients were withdrawn ("censored"): 90 "alive" (did not require repeat surgery and attended follow-up control in 1997) and 20 "lost" (did not attend control in 1997). Twenty-three patients attained the terminal event of implant removal for a variety of reasons: acute infection (three cases), late infection (ten cases), implant failure requiring revision (six cases) and local pain (four cases). The survival rate was 95.5% at 3 months, 94.7% at 6 months, 93.9% at 1 year, 91.5% at 2 years, 82.2% at 5 years and 76.5% at 10 years. The magnitude of the curves, total number of implants and number of fused segments did not correlate with survival probability. A positive correlation was found between survival rate and correction loss between surgery and last control. A survival rate of 76.5% at 10 years is unexpectedly low. Current data suggest that the incapacity to maintain correction after initial surgery plays a major roll in the long-term evolution of Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation.

Atrial Fibrillation and Cardiovascular Comorbidities, Survival and Mortality: A Real-Life Observational Study

PubMed Central

Clua-Espuny, Jose Luis; Panisello-Tafalla, Anna; Lopez-Pablo, Carlos; Lechuga-Duran, Inigo; Bosch-Princep, Ramon; Lucas-Noll, Jorgina; Gonzalez-Henares, Antonia; Queralt-Tomas, Lluisa; Ripolles-Vicente, Rosa; Calduch-Noll, Cristina; Gonzalez-Rojas, Nuria; Gallofre-Lopez, Miguel

2014-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac tachyarrhythmia encountered in clinical practice affecting up to 10% of the population over 60 years old and its prevalence rises with age. The main goals were to characterize the AF patient population after the initial diagnosis of AF and to determine overall survival. Methods It is a real-life observational study of 269 subjects with an AF diagnosis over 60 years old randomly selected. The collected variables were: sociodemographic, cardiovascular complications/comorbidities (CVCs) included in the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS_BLED scores, drug assigned as clinical treatment, mean range INR and CVCs and death dates (all-cause mortality). The survival curve and the risk of death were assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival curve and comparisons with log-rank. Results The average following time was 6.2 ± 3.7 years (0.2-20.4). Eleven point five percent died. Sixty-five point four percent had some CVCs. There were no differences in the overall incidence of CVCs by gender. The survival probability was 0.86 ± DE 0.03 among men and 0.90 ± DE 0.04 among women without differences. Thirty-six point eight percent (95% CI: 30.8 - 42.7) were diagnosed vascular complications before AF diagnosis, being ischemic cardiopathy (24.2%) and ischemic stroke (23.2%) the most frequent. The mortality is higher (P < 0.036) among those who suffered ≥ 3 vascular complications and significantly lower among those treated with statins (P = 0.032). After AF diagnosis, the most frequent was the cardiac heart failure (46.7%), significantly higher among women (P = 0.037). The mortality is significantly lower in those treated with OAC (P = 0.003). Conclusions AF is associated with ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke and congestive heart failure, but the average mortality age is not different from the global population in Spain and Catalonia. PMID:28392870

Population dynamics of the Cui-ui of Pyramid Lake, Nevada: a Potamodromous catostomid subject to failed reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scoppettone, Gayton G.; Rissler, Peter H.; Fabes, Mark C.; Shea, Sean P.

2015-01-01

Fishes of the Truckee River basin (California and Nevada) evolved in an aquatic system that has been episodically diminished by extended drought. For potamodromous species, such as the endangered Cui-ui endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada, prehistoric episodic severe drought presumably led to periods of failed reproduction due to restricted access to spawning habitat. The response of the Cui-ui population to more recent failed reproduction caused by anthropogenic activity was studied to learn how to manage this species through periods of spawning disruption. Adult Cui-ui survival averaged 91% and 89% for females and males, respectively, in drought years when spawning migrations were either precluded or few fish migrated because of no or low stream flow. In each of 2 years when stream access was precluded, the adult survival was nearly 100% suggesting that Cui-ui survival is extended in the absence of a spawning migration. Survival averaged 62% and 60% for females and males, respectively, in years of spawning migrations. Strong predominant year-classes developed in the year immediately following a period of failed reproduction, indicating the species’ capacity for population rebound. Year-class predominance persisted for 6–10 years and through years of low survival associated with migration years, and this predominance is probably due, in part, to a diverse age at maturity. Contemporary water diversions from the Truckee River provided the opportunity to study the response of the Cui-ui population to years of failed reproduction. A projected drier Truckee River basin associated with global climate change will test the Cui-ui’s adaptive capacity to endure periods of reproductive failure. This study is aimed at assisting Cui-ui managers in conserving the species in this highly regulated and changing system. The study also adds insight into the prehistoric population dynamics of a potamodromous species in the arid western United States subject to wide fluctuations in annual precipitation and water availability

Fingerprints of exceptional points in the survival probability of resonances in atomic spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartarius, Holger; Moiseyev, Nimrod

2011-07-01

The unique time signature of the survival probability exactly at the exceptional point parameters is studied here for the hydrogen atom in strong static magnetic and electric fields. We show that indeed the survival probability S(t)=|<ψ(0)|ψ(t)>|2 decays exactly as |1-at|2e-ΓEPt/ℏ, where ΓEP is associated with the decay rate at the exceptional point and a is a complex constant depending solely on the initial wave packet that populates exclusively the two almost degenerate states of the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. This may open the possibility for a first experimental detection of exceptional points in a quantum system.

Game-theoretic strategies for asymmetric networked systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell

Abstract—We consider an infrastructure consisting of a network of systems each composed of discrete components that can be reinforced at a certain cost to guard against attacks. The network provides the vital connectivity between systems, and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. We characterize the system-level correlations using the aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network. The survival probabilities of systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure survival as a gamemore » between anattacker and a provider, using the sum-form and product-form utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a cost term. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions which provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities, and also the expected capacity specified by the total number of operational components. These expressions differ only in a single term for the sum-form and product-form utilities, despite their significant differences.We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing infrastructures.« less

Tag retention, growth, and survival of red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii marked with coded wire tags

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isely, J.J.; Eversole, A.G.

1998-01-01

Juvenile red swamp crayfish (or crawfish), Procambarus clarkii (20-41 mm in total length) were collected from a crayfish culture pond by dipnetting and tagged with sequentially numbered, standard length, binary-coded wire tags. Four replicates of 50 crayfish were impaled perpendicular to the long axis of the abdomen with a fixed needle. Tags were injected transversely into the ventral surface of the first or second abdominal segment and were imbedded in the musculature just beneath the abdominal sternum. Tags were visible upon inspection. Additionally, two replicates of 50 crayfish were not tagged and were used as controls. Growth, survival, and tag retention were evaluated after 7 d in individual containers, after 100 d in aquaria, and after 200 d in field cages. Tag retention during each sample period was 100%, and average mortality of tagged crayfish within 7 d of tagging was 1%. Mortality during the remainder of the study was high (75-91%) but was similar between treatment and control samples. Most of the deaths were probably due to cannibalism. Average total length increased threefold during the course of the study, and crayfish reached maturity. Because crayfish were mature by the end of the study, we concluded that the coded wire tag was retained through the life history of the crayfish.

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Variations in the survival probabilities of the PVC-protected red mangrove propagules: testing the encased replanting technique.

PubMed

López-Ortiz, M I; Pérez, C M; Suárez, E; Ríos-Dávila, R

1999-12-01

The EcoEléctrica Mangrove Planting Project, a five-year voluntary effort, has the purpose of testing a recently developed mangrove planting technique at the EcoEléctrica site in Peñuelas, Puerto Rico. The goal of the project is to provide empirical validation to promote or improve the technique to be used in recovering mangrove ecosystems in Puerto Rico and United States. The research presented herein analyzed the information collected on the first two years of the project. The proportions of remaining casings and seeds per study zone were compared using the chi-square distribution. Zone 1 had the least pipes lost while Zone 4 had the most (p < 0.05). Forty-three percent of the seeds in Zone 1 remained in the casing, while 26% remained in Zone 2 (p = 0.03). Median growth rates of seeds per study zone showed that Zone 1 had the highest median growth rates. Survival analysis described the survival experience of the seeds, and differences in survival probabilities were compared with the log-rank test. Zone 1 seeds had a better survival experience compared to Zones 2, 3 and 4 (p < 0.0001). Survival probabilities for being free of spots were over 60% during the whole study period. No significant differences were observed in the survival experience with the use-or-no use of casing extensions (p = 0.40), and the use-or-no use of nursed seeds (p = 0.26). Differences in survival probabilities might be attributed to variations in wave energy, depth or substrate conditions. This hypothesis will be evaluated in the second phase of the study.

Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

2004-01-01

Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

Hospital of Diagnosis Influences the Probability of Receiving Curative Treatment for Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

van Putten, Margreet; Koëter, Marijn; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M; Lemmens, Valery E P P; Siersema, Peter D; Hulshof, Maarten C C M; Verhoeven, Rob H A; Nieuwenhuijzen, Grard A P

2018-02-01

The aim of this article was to study the influence of hospital of diagnosis on the probability of receiving curative treatment and its impact on survival among patients with esophageal cancer (EC). Although EC surgery is centralized in the Netherlands, the disease is often diagnosed in hospitals that do not perform this procedure. Patients with potentially curable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction tumors diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 who were potentially curable (cT1-3,X, any N, M0,X) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Multilevel logistic regression was performed to examine the probability to undergo curative treatment (resection with or without neoadjuvant treatment, definitive chemoradiotherapy, or local tumor excision) according to hospital of diagnosis. Effects of variation in probability of undergoing curative treatment among these hospitals on survival were investigated by Cox regression. All 13,017 patients with potentially curable EC, diagnosed in 91 hospitals, were included. The proportion of patients receiving curative treatment ranged from 37% to 83% and from 45% to 86% in the periods 2005-2009 and 2010-2013, respectively, depending on hospital of diagnosis. After adjustment for patient- and hospital-related characteristics these proportions ranged from 41% to 77% and from 50% to 82%, respectively (both P < 0.001). Multivariable survival analyses showed that patients diagnosed in hospitals with a low probability of undergoing curative treatment had a worse overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.20; hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.24). The variation in probability of undergoing potentially curative treatment for EC between hospitals of diagnosis and its impact on survival indicates that treatment decision making in EC may be improved.

Decision curve analysis and external validation of the postoperative Karakiewicz nomogram for renal cell carcinoma based on a large single-center study cohort.

PubMed

Zastrow, Stefan; Brookman-May, Sabine; Cong, Thi Anh Phuong; Jurk, Stanislaw; von Bar, Immanuel; Novotny, Vladimir; Wirth, Manfred

2015-03-01

To predict outcome of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who undergo surgical therapy, risk models and nomograms are valuable tools. External validation on independent datasets is crucial for evaluating accuracy and generalizability of these models. The objective of the present study was to externally validate the postoperative nomogram developed by Karakiewicz et al. for prediction of cancer-specific survival. A total of 1,480 consecutive patients with a median follow-up of 82 months (IQR 46-128) were included into this analysis with 268 RCC-specific deaths. Nomogram-estimated survival probabilities were compared with survival probabilities of the actual cohort, and concordance indices were calculated. Calibration plots and decision curve analyses were used for evaluating calibration and clinical net benefit of the nomogram. Concordance between predictions of the nomogram and survival rates of the cohort was 0.911 after 12, 0.909 after 24 months and 0.896 after 60 months. Comparison of predicted probabilities and actual survival estimates with calibration plots showed an overestimation of tumor-specific survival based on nomogram predictions of high-risk patients, although calibration plots showed a reasonable calibration for probability ranges of interest. Decision curve analysis showed a positive net benefit of nomogram predictions for our patient cohort. The postoperative Karakiewicz nomogram provides a good concordance in this external cohort and is reasonably calibrated. It may overestimate tumor-specific survival in high-risk patients, which should be kept in mind when counseling patients. A positive net benefit of nomogram predictions was proven.

Adult tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Housatonic River, Massachusetts, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Custer, Christine M.; Custer, T.W.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Dummer, P.M.

2007-01-01

Tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) were captured and banded at six sites that differed in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination levels in the Housatonic River watershed, western Massachusetts, USA, from 2000 through 2004 to test the prediction that apparent survival rates of females in more contaminated areas were lower than those from less contaminated areas. We also tested whether plumage coloration affected over-winter survival and whether concentrations of PCBs in eggs differed between birds that did and that did not return the following year. Apparent survival rates were calculated using mark?recapture methods and compared using Akaike's Information Criterion. Model-adjusted survival rates ranged from 0.365 to 0.467 for PCB-contaminated females and between 0.404 and 0.476 for reference females. Models with either survival or capture probability modeled as functions of treatment (degree of PCB contamination), year, and age received some support. The model-averaged parameter estimate reflecting a treatment effect for high-PCB birds was negative ( = -0.046, SE() = 0.0939). Fifty-four percent of the total model weights involved models in which survival was a function of PCB treatment. Eggs were collected for contaminant analyses from a random sample of females that did and that did not return the following year. Concentrations of total PCBs were the same or higher in the eggs of females that returned compared to the eggs of those that did not return at both the highly and the moderately contaminated PCB sites. This may have resulted from higher-quality females with higher lipid reserves being more likely than lower-quality females to return the following year. Percentage lipid was positively correlated with total PCBs in eggs. Survival rates were similar among swallows with brown versus blue plumage.

Reproductive ecology of Emperor Geese: Survival of adult females

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Margaret R.

1992-01-01

Life history theory predicts a decrease in survival with increased reproductive effort of individuals. This relationship, however, is highly variable among and within species. I studied the nesting success and survival of adult female Emperor Geese during 1982-1986 and found no direct evidence that differential reproductive effort as measured by the number of eggs laid or hatching success had a significant negative effect on survival to the next breeding season. Incubated clutch size, hatched clutch size, number of parasitic eggs, nest initiation date, hatch date, and mass at hatch were not related to subsequent survival. Of the factors I examined, only an attempt to nest the previous season was related to survival of a female. I suggest that the higher probability of survival among non-nesting adult female Emperor Geese was primarily related to hunting pressure on the nesting area between spring and fall migration. The probability of survival was increased for females with larger clutches, suggesting a positive relationship between brood size and survival.

Rise and Shock: Optimal Defibrillator Placement in a High-rise Building.

PubMed

Chan, Timothy C Y

2017-01-01

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in high-rise buildings experience lower survival and longer delays until paramedic arrival. Use of publicly accessible automated external defibrillators (AED) can improve survival, but "vertical" placement has not been studied. We aim to determine whether elevator-based or lobby-based AED placement results in shorter vertical distance travelled ("response distance") to OHCAs in a high-rise building. We developed a model of a single-elevator, n-floor high-rise building. We calculated and compared the average distance from AED to floor of arrest for the two AED locations. We modeled OHCA occurrences using floor-specific Poisson processes, the risk of OHCA on the ground floor (λ 1 ) and the risk on any above-ground floor (λ). The elevator was modeled with an override function enabling direct travel to the target floor. The elevator location upon override was modeled as a discrete uniform random variable. Calculations used the laws of probability. Elevator-based AED placement had shorter average response distance if the number of floors (n) in the building exceeded three quarters of the ratio of ground-floor OHCA risk to above-ground floor risk (λ 1 /λ) plus one half (n ≥ 3λ 1 /4λ + 0.5). Otherwise, a lobby-based AED had shorter average response distance. If OHCA risk on each floor was equal, an elevator-based AED had shorter average response distance. Elevator-based AEDs travel less vertical distance to OHCAs in tall buildings or those with uniform vertical risk, while lobby-based AEDs travel less vertical distance in buildings with substantial lobby, underground, and nearby street-level traffic and OHCA risk.

A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

1965-01-01

This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

Variation in survivorship of a migratory songbird throughout its annual cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sillett, T. Scott; Holmes, Richard T.

2002-01-01

1. Demographic data from both breeding and non-breeding periods are needed to manage populations of migratory birds, many of which are declining in abundance and are of conservation concern. Although habitat associations, and to a lesser extent, reproductive biology, are known for many migratory species, few studies have measured survival rates of these birds at different parts of their annual cycle. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and Akaike's information criterion model selection were used to investigate seasonal variation in survival of a Nearctic - Neotropical migrant songbird, the black-throated blue warbler, Dendroica caerulescens. Seasonal and annual survival were estimated from resightings of colour-ringed individuals on breeding grounds in New Hampshire, USA from 1986 to 2000 and on winter quarters in Jamaica, West Indies from 1986 to 1999. Warblers were studied each year during the May-August breeding period in New Hampshire and during the October-March overwinter period in Jamaica. 3. In New Hampshire, males had higher annual survival (0.51 + 0.03) and recapture probabilities (0.93 + 0.03) than did females (survival: 0.40 + 0.04; recapture: 0'87 + 0.06). In Jamaica, annual survival (0.43 + 0.03) and recapture (0'95 + 0.04) probabilities did not differ between sexes. Annual survival and recapture probabilities of young birds (i.e. yearlings in New Hampshire and hatch-year birds in Jamaica) did not differ from adults, indicating that from the time hatch-year individuals acquire territories on winter quarters in mid-October, they survive as well as adults within the same habitat. 4. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer (May-August) and winter (October-March) stationary periods were high: 1'0 for males in New Hampshire, and 0.99 + 0.01 for males in Jamaica and for females in both locations. 5. These annual and seasonal survival estimates were used to calculate warbler survival for the migratory periods. Monthly survival probability during migration ranged from 0.77 to 0.81 -+ 0.02. Thus, apparent mortality rates were at least 15 times higher during migration compared to that in the stationary periods, and more than 85% of apparent annual mortality of D. caerulescens occurred during migration. 6. Additional data from multiple species, especially measures of habitat-specific demography and dispersal, will improve our understanding of the relative impacts of the breeding, migratory, and winter periods on population dynamics of migratory birds and thus enhance future conservation efforts.

Variation in survivorship of a migratory songbird throughout its annual cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, Sillett T.; Holmes, Richard T.

2002-01-01

1. Demographic data from both breeding and non-breeding periods are needed to manage populations of migratory birds, many of which are declining in abundance and are of conservation concern. Although habitat associations, and to a lesser extent, reproductive biology, are known for many migratory species, few studies have measured survival rates of these birds at different parts of their annual cycle. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and Akaike's information criterion model selection were used to investigate seasonal variation in survival of a Nearctic - Neotropical migrant songbird, the black-throated blue warbler, Dendroica caerulescens. Seasonal and annual survival were estimated from resightings of colour-ringed individuals on breeding grounds in New Hampshire, USA from 1986 to 2000 and on winter quarters in Jamaica, West Indies from 1986 to 1999. Warblers were studied each year during the May-August breeding period in New Hampshire and during the October-March overwinter period in Jamaica. 3. In New Hampshire, males had higher annual survival (0.51 ?? 0.03) and recapture probabilities (0.93 ?? 0.03) than did females (survival: 0.40 ?? 0.04; recapture: 0.87 ?? 0.06). In Jamaica, annual survival (0.43 ?? 0.03) and recapture (0.95 ?? 0.04) probabilities did not differ between sexes. Annual survival and recapture probabilities of young birds (i.e. yearlings in New Hampshire and hatch-year birds in Jamaica) did not differ from adults, indicating that from the time hatch-year individuals acquire territories on winter quarters in mid-October, they survive as well as adults within the same habitat. 4. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer (May-August) and winter (October-March) stationary periods were high: 1.0 for males in New Hampshire, and 0.99 ?? 0.01 for males in Jamaica and for females in both locations. 5. These annual and seasonal survival estimates were used to calculate warbler survival for the migratory periods. Monthly survival probability during migration ranged from 0.77 to 0.81 ?? 0.02. Thus, apparent mortality rates were at least 15 times higher during migration compared to that in the stationary periods, and more than 85% of apparent annual mortality of D. caerulescens occurred during migration. 6. Additional data from multiple species, especially measures of habitat-specific demography and dispersal, will improve our understanding of the relative impacts of the breeding, migratory, and winter periods on population dynamics of migratory birds and thus enhance future conservation efforts.

Survival analysis of cervical cancer using stratified Cox regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnami, S. W.; Inayati, K. D.; Sari, N. W. Wulan; Chosuvivatwong, V.; Sriplung, H.

2016-04-01

Cervical cancer is one of the mostly widely cancer cause of the women death in the world including Indonesia. Most cervical cancer patients come to the hospital already in an advanced stadium. As a result, the treatment of cervical cancer becomes more difficult and even can increase the death's risk. One of parameter that can be used to assess successfully of treatment is the probability of survival. This study raises the issue of cervical cancer survival patients at Dr. Soetomo Hospital using stratified Cox regression based on six factors such as age, stadium, treatment initiation, companion disease, complication, and anemia. Stratified Cox model is used because there is one independent variable that does not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption that is stadium. The results of the stratified Cox model show that the complication variable is significant factor which influent survival probability of cervical cancer patient. The obtained hazard ratio is 7.35. It means that cervical cancer patient who has complication is at risk of dying 7.35 times greater than patient who did not has complication. While the adjusted survival curves showed that stadium IV had the lowest probability of survival.

Annual elk calf survival in a multiple carnivore system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eacker, Daniel R.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Jimenez, Benjamin S.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Robinson, Hugh S.

2016-01-01

The realized effect of multiple carnivores on juvenile ungulate recruitment may depend on the carnivore assemblage as well as compensation from forage and winter weather severity, which may mediate juvenile vulnerability to predation in ungulates. We used a time-to-event approach to test for the effects of risk factors on annual elk (Cervus canadensis) calf survival and to estimate cause-specific mortality rates for 2 elk populations in adjacent study areas in the southern Bitterroot Valley, Montana, USA, during 2011–2014. We captured and radio-tagged 286 elk calves: 226 neonates, and 60 6-month-old calves. Summer survival probability was less variable than winter (P = 0.12) and averaged 0.55 (95% CI = 0.47–0.63), whereas winter survival varied more than summer and significantly across study years (P = 0.003) and averaged 0.73 (95% CI = 0.64–0.81). During summer, elk calf survival increased with biomass of preferred forage biomass, and was slightly lower following winters with high precipitation; exposure to mountain lion (Puma concolor) predation risk was unimportant. In contrast, during winter, we found that exposure to mountain lion predation risk influenced survival, with a weak negative effect of winter precipitation. We found no evidence that forage availability or winter weather severity mediated vulnerability to mountain lion predation risk in summer or winter (e.g., an interaction), indicating that the effect of mountain lion predation was constant regardless of spatial variation in forage or weather. Mountain lions dominated known causes of elk calf mortality in summer and winter, with estimated cause-specific mortality rates of 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09–0.20) and 0.12 (95% CI = 0.07–0.18), respectively. The effect of carnivores on juvenile ungulate recruitment varies across ecological systems depending on relative carnivore densities. Mountain lions may be the most important carnivore for ungulates, especially where grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) are rare or recovering. Finally, managers may need to reduce adult female harvest of elk as carnivores recolonize to balance carnivore and ungulate management objectives, especially in less productive habitats for elk.

Comparison of the RTS and ISS scores on prediction of survival chances in multiple trauma patients.

PubMed

Akhavan Akbari, G; Mohammadian, A

2012-01-01

Trauma represents the third cause of death after cardio vascular disease and tumors. Also in Iran, road accidents are one of the leading causes of death. Rapid evaluation of trauma severity and prediction of prognosis and mortality rate and probability of survival and rapid treatment of patients is necessary. One of the useful instruments for this is ISS and RTS scoring systems. This study evaluated 70 multi trauma patients in Fatemi trauma center affiliated to Ardabil University of medical science. This study was prospective study populations were 70 trauma patients admitted in Fatemi trauma center. During the II month, and patients data was collected by clinical evaluating of patients and follow up them and arranged as a questionnaire then related findings were evaluated by SPSS software. The average age of patients was 37.6±23.5 years and minimum and maximum age was 1 and 85 years. The most common involved group was 10-19 years (13 men and 1 woman). 81.4% of patients (57 cases were male) and 18.6% were female (13 cases). The most common causes of trauma was car accident with 64.2% frequency (43 cases) and then motorcycle accident with 16.4% frequency (11 cases) and all injured patient due to motorcycle accident compose the age group less than 40 years old. Also car accident had the highest frequency in both gender. Other causes of trauma were fall down with 13.5% frequency (9 cases) and under debris 5.9% (4 cases). Also from 70 studied patients, 67 cases (95.7%) had blunt trauma and 3 cases (4.3%) had penetrating trauma. The most penetrating trauma occurs in ages less than 50 years and was in the range of 30-50 years. The average RTS and ISS was 10.67±1.45 and 18.11±8.64, high and low scores of ISS existed in all age groups but a low score of RTS was highest in the children age group. The average length of ICU stay was 12.14±11.11 days. Overall mortality was 15.7 (11 cases). In this study, by the ISS increasing, the mortality rate also increased. But there is no relation between the mortality rate and RTS ratio. The ISS scoring system performed better than the RTS in predicting of mortality and probability of survival and the length of ICU stay and had high accuracy and can predict patients' outcome better by ISS measuring.

The miRacle in Pancreatic Cancer by miRNAs: Tiny Angels or Devils in Disease Progression

PubMed Central

Hawa, Zuhair; Haque, Inamul; Ghosh, Arnab; Banerjee, Snigdha; Harris, LaCoiya; Banerjee, Sushanta K.

2016-01-01

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is an aggressive malignancy with increasing incidence and high mortality. Surgical resection is the only potentially curative treatment of patients with PDAC. Because of the late presentation of the disease, about 20 percent of patients are candidates for this treatment. The average survival of resected patients is between 12 and 20 months, with a high probability of relapse. Standard chemo and radiation therapies do not offer significant improvement of the survival of these patients. Furthermore, novel treatment options aimed at targeting oncogenes or growth factors in pancreatic cancer have proved unsuccessful. Thereby, identifying new biomarkers that can detect early stages of this disease is of critical importance. Among these biomarkers, microRNAs (miRNAs) have supplied a profitable recourse and become an attractive focus of research in PDAC. MiRNAs regulate many genes involved in the development of PDAC through mRNA degradation or translation inhibition. The possibility of intervention in the molecular mechanisms of miRNAs regulation could begin a new generation of PDAC therapies. This review summarizes the reports describing miRNAs involvement in cellular processes involving pancreatic carcinogenesis and their utility in diagnosis, survival and therapeutic potential in pancreatic cancer. PMID:27240340

Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

1998-01-01

During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

Adaptation or recovery after health shocks? Evidence using subjective and objective health measures.

PubMed

Baji, Petra; Bíró, Anikó

2018-05-01

In this paper, we analyse the effect of an onset of a health shock on subjective survival probability and compare it with objective survival probability and self-reported health measures. In particular, we are interested in whether expectations of people respond to health shocks and whether these follow the evolution of objective life expectations and self-reported health measures over time. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimate fixed effects models of adaptation for the objective and subjective survival probabilities and for some self-reported health measures. The results show that after cancer diagnosis, conditional on surviving, both the objective and subjective longevity and self-reported health measures drift back to the before diagnosis trajectories. For stroke and heart attack, in spite of their persistent negative effect on survival, subjective life expectations and self-reported health measures seem to indicate only a transient effect of the health shock. The differences between the objective and subjective measures are in line with the concept of adaptation. We discuss the policy implications of our results. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conjunctival epithelial flap in continuous contact lens wear.

PubMed

Graham, Andrew D; Truong, Tan N; Lin, Meng C

2009-04-01

Composed of sheets of cells detached from the underlying conjunctiva, conjunctival epithelial flap (CEF) is a recently reported phenomenon associated with contact lens wear with potential consequences for ocular health. Although CEF is generally asymptomatic, it is not known to what extent it might increase the longer-term risk of discomfort, inflammatory response, or infection. In this study, we use survival analysis methods to obtain unbiased estimates of the probability of developing CEF, the mean survival time free of CEF, and the effects of age, gender, ethnicity, and contact lens type. Two hundred four subjects were recruited for a continuous wear (CW) study of silicone hydrogel (SiH) and gas permeable (GP) contact lenses. Subjects were examined by optometrists throughout contact lens adaptation and CW periods. Statistical methods included the Kaplan-Meier nonparametric estimator of the survival function and the Cox proportional hazards model for estimating the relative effects of covariates. Of the 204 subjects, 72 (35%) developed CEF. In 64% of cases, CEFs were observed bilaterally. The majority of cases (90.3%) presented with CEF in the superior conjunctiva. Mean survival time free of CEF was longer for GP lenses (94.3 days) than for SiH lenses (76.5 days), and the probability of developing CEF was significantly greater for SiH lenses (p = 0.002). Although there was some evidence that women and non-Asians remain free of CEF longer, the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity were not statistically significant. There was a significantly increased risk of CEF in subjects wearing SiH lenses, compared with GP lenses. Subjects wearing SiH lenses remained free of CEF for a shorter time on average. Further study is needed to determine whether the increased incidence of CEF in CW with SiH lenses poses an increased risk of adverse ocular response or infection.

Game-Theoretic strategies for systems of components using product-form utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Hausken, K.

Many critical infrastructures are composed of multiple systems of components which are correlated so that disruptions to one may propagate to others. We consider such infrastructures with correlations characterized in two ways: (i) an aggregate failure correlation function specifies the conditional failure probability of the infrastructure given the failure of an individual system, and (ii) a pairwise correlation function between two systems specifies the failure probability of one system given the failure of the other. We formulate a game for ensuring the resilience of the infrastructure, wherein the utility functions of the provider and attacker are products of an infrastructuremore » survival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the numbers of system components attacked and reinforced. The survival probabilities of individual systems satisfy first-order differential conditions that lead to simple Nash Equilibrium conditions. We then derive sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities. We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing and energy grid infrastructures.« less

First-Year Growth and Survival Of Long Cottonwood Cuttings

Treesearch

W.K. Randall; R.M. Krinard

1977-01-01

When five Stoneville cottonwood clones were grown in a nursery for one season, lifted with about a foot of root, and planted in 3-foot deep holes, they averaged 9.6 feet in height growth and 92 percent survival after 1 year in the field. Planted height averaged 8.3 feet. The same clonal material planted without roots averaged only 36 percent survival. These results...

Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

PubMed

Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

2011-06-01

Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

Antagonistic effect of helpers on breeding male and female survival in a cooperatively breeding bird

PubMed Central

Paquet, Matthieu; Doutrelant, Claire; Hatchwell, Ben J; Spottiswoode, Claire N; Covas, Rita

2015-01-01

1. Cooperatively breeding species are typically long lived and hence, according to theory, are expected to maximize their lifetime reproductive success through maximizing survival. Under these circumstances, the presence of helpers could be used to lighten the effort of current reproduction for parents to achieve higher survival. 2. In addition, individuals of different sexes and ages may follow different strategies, but whether male and female breeders and individuals of different ages benefit differently from the presence of helpers has often been overlooked. Moreover, only one study that investigated the relationship between parental survival and the presence of helpers used capture–mark–recapture analyses (CMR). These methods are important since they allow us to account for the non-detection of individuals that are alive in the population but not detected, and thus, the effects on survival and recapture probability to be disentangled. 3. Here, we used multi-event CMR methods to investigate whether the number of helpers was associated with an increase in survival probability for male and female breeders of different ages in the sociable weaver Philetairus socius. In this species, both sexes reduce their feeding rate in the presence of helpers. We therefore predicted that the presence of helpers should increase the breeders' survival in both sexes, especially early in life when individuals potentially have more future breeding opportunities. In addition, sociable weaver females reduce their investment in eggs in the presence of helpers, so we predicted a stronger effect of helpers on female than male survival. 4. As expected we found that females had a higher survival probability when breeding with more helpers. Unexpectedly, however, male survival probability decreased with increasing number of helpers. This antagonistic effect diminished as the breeders grew older. 5. These results illustrate the complexity of fitness costs and benefits underlying cooperative behaviours and how these may vary with the individuals' sex and age. They also highlight the need for further studies on the sex-specific effects of helpers on survival. PMID:25850564

Optimization of armored spherical tanks for storage on the lunar surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bents, D. J.; Knight, D. A.

1992-01-01

A redundancy strategy for reducing micrometeroid armoring mass is investigated, with application to cryogenic reactant storage for a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) on the lunar surface. In that micrometeoroid environment, the cryogenic fuel must be protected from loss due to tank puncture. The tankage must have a sufficiently high probability of survival over the length of the mission so that the probability of system failure due to tank puncture is low compared to the other mission risk factors. Assuming that a single meteoroid penetration can cause a storage tank to lose its contents, two means are available to raise the probability of surviving micrometeoroid attack to the desired level. One can armor the tanks to a thickness sufficient to reduce probability of penetration of any tank to the desired level or add extra capacity in the form of spare tanks that results in survival of a given number out of the ensemble at the desired level. A combination of these strategies (armoring and redundancy) is investigated. The objective is to find the optimum combination which yields the lowest shielding mass per cubic meter of surviving fuel out of the original ensemble. The investigation found that, for the volumes of fuel associated with multikilowatt class cryo storage RFC's, and the armoring methodology and meteoroid models used, storage should be fragmented into small individual tanks. Larger installations (more fuel) pay less of a shielding penalty than small installations. For the same survival probability over the same time period, larger volumes will require less armoring mass per unit volume protected.

Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice.

PubMed

Cohn, David E; Havrilesky, Laura J; Osann, Kathryn; Lipscomb, Joseph; Hsieh, Susie; Walker, Joan L; Wright, Alexi A; Alvarez, Ronald D; Karlan, Beth Y; Bristow, Robert E; DiSilvestro, Paul A; Wakabayashi, Mark T; Morgan, Robert; Mukamel, Dana B; Wenzel, Lari

2015-09-01

To determine the degree of consensus regarding the probabilities of outcomes associated with IP/IV and IV chemotherapy. A survey was administered to an expert panel using the Delphi method. Ten ovarian cancer experts were asked to estimate outcomes for patients receiving IP/IV or IV chemotherapy. The clinical estimates were: 1) probability of completing six cycles of chemotherapy, 2) probability of surviving five years, 3) median survival, and 4) probability of ER/hospital visits during treatment. Estimates for two patients, one with a low comorbidity index (patient 1) and the other with a moderate index (patient 2), were included. The survey was administered in three rounds, and panelists could revise their subsequent responses based on review of the anonymous opinions of their peers. The ranges were smaller for IV compared with IP/IV therapy. Ranges decreased with each round. Consensus converged around outcomes related to IP/IV chemotherapy for: 1) completion of 6 cycles of therapy (type 1 patient, 62%, type 2 patient, 43%); 2) percentage of patients surviving 5 years (type 1 patient, 66%, type 2 patient, 47%); and 3) median survival (type 1 patient, 83 months, type 2 patient, 58 months). The group required three rounds to achieve consensus on the probabilities of ER/hospital visits (type 1 patient, 24%, type 2 patient, 35%). Initial estimates of survival and adverse events associated with IP/IV chemotherapy differ among experts. The Delphi process works to build consensus and may be a pragmatic tool to inform patients of their expected outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores.

PubMed

Harmsen, Bart J; Foster, Rebecca J; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E; Silver, Scott C; Ostro, Linde E T; Kelly, Marcella J; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.

Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

service married but separated, divorced, or widowed (after DMDC, 2014). ....................................................27  Figure 13.  Number of...or had a Marriage Annulment) had a lower probability of success. Recruits who were married at the time of accession had a higher probability of...survival rates differed among male and female service members. Male recruits who were married with dependents had a greater chance of survival than

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Longevity records and survival estimate of birds in a Guatemala rain forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.; Dowell, B.; Hines, J.

2002-01-01

Birds were mist-netted for ten consecutive 'winter' seasons at two sites on Cerro San Gil and for three to nine seasons at eight other sites on the mountain. Sixteen nets were used at each site for three days; net locations were the same each year. From 1,255 subsequent-year recaptures we computed annual survival using the program MARK. A low annual survival of 0.26+0.03 for Long-tailed Hermit probably reflects extensive wandering in search of food. The only other residents with low survival rates were Ochre-bellied Flycatcher (0.32) and Olive-backed Euphonia (0.38). Other residents tested ranged from 0.49 for Red-capped Manakin to 0.67 for Stub-tailed Spadebill and are within ranges reported from other tropical sites. Rates for migrants were lower, ranging from 0.33 (Worm-eating Warbler) to 0.45 (Kentucky Warbler). Limiting the analysis to known territorial adults (birds that had already returned from a previous year), raised survival rates for residents an average of 0.05, whereas rates for wintering migratory species remained unchanged. The oldest birds recaptured were all residents: Scalythroated Leaftosser (9 years 9 months), Tawny-winged and Wedge-billed Woodcreepers, Northern Bentbill, Tawny-crowned Greenlet, and White-breasted Woodwren (8 years 9 months each). Ages over three years nine months were recorded for 46 species; for the majority of these, new maximum age records were established. A positive relationship was found between survival rate and maximum age and between sample size and maximum age

The association between hyperoxia and patient outcomes after cardiac arrest: Analysis of a high-resolution database

PubMed Central

Elmer, Jonathan; Scutella, Michael; Pullalarevu, Raghevesh; Wang, Bo; Vaghasia, Nishit; Trzeciak, Stephen; Rosario-Rivera, Bedda L.; Guyette, Francis X.; Rittenberger, Jon C.; Dezfulian, Cameron

2014-01-01

Purpose Previous observational studies have inconsistently associated early hyperoxia with worse outcomes after cardiac arrest and have methodological limitations. We tested this association using a high-resolution database controlling for multiple disease-specific markers of severity of illness and care processes. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of a single-center, prospective registry of consecutive cardiac arrest patients. We included patients who survived and were mechanically ventilated ≥24h after arrest. Our main exposure was arterial oxygen tension (PaO2), which we categorized hourly for 24 hours as severe hyperoxia (>300mmHg), moderate or probable hyperoxia (101-299mmHg), normoxia (60-100mmHg) or hypoxia (<60mmHg). We controlled for Utstein-style covariates, markers of disease severity and markers of care responsiveness. We performed unadjusted and multiple logistic regression to test the association between oxygen exposure and survival to discharge, and used ordered logistic regression to test the association of oxygen exposure with neurological outcome and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at 24h. Results Of 184 patients, 36% were exposed to severe hyperoxia and overall mortality was 54%. Severe hyperoxia, but not moderate or probable hyperoxia, was associated with decreased survival in both unadjusted and adjusted analysis (adjusted odds ratio (OR) for survival 0.83 per hour exposure, P=0.04). Moderate or probable hyperoxia was not associated with survival but was associated with improved SOFA score 24h (OR 0.92, P<0.01). Conclusion Severe hyperoxia was independently associated with decreased survival to hospital discharge. Moderate or probable hyperoxia was not associated with decreased survival and was associated with improved organ function at 24h. PMID:25472570

Semiparametric temporal process regression of survival-out-of-hospital.

PubMed

Zhan, Tianyu; Schaubel, Douglas E

2018-05-23

The recurrent/terminal event data structure has undergone considerable methodological development in the last 10-15 years. An example of the data structure that has arisen with increasing frequency involves the recurrent event being hospitalization and the terminal event being death. We consider the response Survival-Out-of-Hospital, defined as a temporal process (indicator function) taking the value 1 when the subject is currently alive and not hospitalized, and 0 otherwise. Survival-Out-of-Hospital is a useful alternative strategy for the analysis of hospitalization/survival in the chronic disease setting, with the response variate representing a refinement to survival time through the incorporation of an objective quality-of-life component. The semiparametric model we consider assumes multiplicative covariate effects and leaves unspecified the baseline probability of being alive-and-out-of-hospital. Using zero-mean estimating equations, the proposed regression parameter estimator can be computed without estimating the unspecified baseline probability process, although baseline probabilities can subsequently be estimated for any time point within the support of the censoring distribution. We demonstrate that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal, and that the baseline probability function estimator converges to a Gaussian process. Simulation studies are performed to show that our estimating procedures have satisfactory finite sample performances. The proposed methods are applied to the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS), an international end-stage renal disease study.

Survival probability of a truncated radial oscillator subject to periodic kicks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanabe, Seiichi; Watanabe, Shinichi; Saif, Farhan; Matsuzawa, Michio

2002-03-01

Classical and quantum survival probabilities are compared for a truncated radial oscillator undergoing impulsive interactions with periodic laser pulses represented here as kicks. The system is truncated in the sense that the harmonic potential is made valid only within a finite range; the rest of the space is treated as a perfect absorber. Exploring extended values of the parameters of this model [Phys. Rev. A 63, 052721 (2001)], we supplement discussions on classical and quantum features near resonances. The classical system proves to be quasi-integrable and preserves phase-space area despite the momentum transfered by the kicks, exhibiting simple yet rich phase-space features. A geometrical argument reveals quantum-classical correspondence in the locations of minima in the paired survival probabilities while the ``ionization'' rates differ due to quantum tunneling.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

PubMed

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Migration confers winter survival benefits in a partially migratory songbird

PubMed Central

Zúñiga, Daniel; Gager, Yann; Kokko, Hanna; Fudickar, Adam Michael; Schmidt, Andreas; Naef-Daenzer, Beat; Wikelski, Martin

2017-01-01

To evolve and to be maintained, seasonal migration, despite its risks, has to yield fitness benefits compared with year-round residency. Empirical data supporting this prediction have remained elusive in the bird literature. To test fitness related benefits of migration, we studied a partial migratory population of European blackbirds (Turdus merula) over 7 years. Using a combination of capture-mark-recapture and radio telemetry, we compared survival probabilities between migrants and residents estimated by multi-event survival models, showing that migrant blackbirds had 16% higher probability to survive the winter compared to residents. A subsequent modelling exercise revealed that residents should have 61.25% higher breeding success than migrants, to outweigh the survival costs of residency. Our results support theoretical models that migration should confer survival benefits to evolve, and thus provide empirical evidence to understand the evolution and maintenance of migration. PMID:29157357

Optimization of armored spherical tanks for storage on the lunar surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bents, D. J.; Knight, D. A.

1992-01-01

A redundancy strategy for reducing micrometeroid armoring mass is investigated, with application to cryogenic reactant storage for a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) on the lunar surface. In that micrometeoroid environment, the cryogenic fuel must be protected from loss due to tank puncture. The tankage must have a sufficiently high probability of survival over the length of the mission so that the probability of system failure due to tank puncture is low compared to the other mission risk factors. Assuming that a single meteoroid penetration can cause a storage tank to lose its contents, two means are available to raise the probability of surviving micrometeoroid attack to the desired level. One can armor the tanks to a thickness sufficient to reduce probability of penetration of any tank to the desired level or add extra capacity in the form of space tanks that results in survival of a given number out of the ensemble at the desired level. A combination of these strategies (armor and redundancy) is investigated.

Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

PubMed

Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

2010-10-01

Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

Cancer survival among children of Turkish descent in Germany 1980–2005: a registry-based analysis

PubMed Central

Spix, Claudia; Spallek, Jacob; Kaatsch, Peter; Razum, Oliver; Zeeb, Hajo

2008-01-01

Background Little is known about the effect of migrant status on childhood cancer survival. We studied cancer survival among children of Turkish descent in the German Cancer Childhood Registry, one of the largest childhood cancer registries worldwide. Methods We identified children of Turkish descent among cancer cases using a name-based approach. We compared 5-year survival probabilities of Turkish and other children in three time periods of diagnosis (1980–87, 1988–95, 1996–2005) using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests. Results The 5-year survival probability for all cancers among 1774 cases of Turkish descent (4.76% of all 37.259 cases) was 76.9% compared to 77.6% in the comparison group (all other cases; p = 0.15). We found no age- or sex-specific survival differences (p-values between p = 0.18 and p = 0.90). For the period 1980–87, the 5-year survival probability among Turkish children with lymphoid leukaemia was significantly lower (62% versus 75.8%; p < 0.0001), this remains unexplained. For more recently diagnosed leukaemias, we saw no survival differences for Turkish and non-Turkish children. Conclusion Our results suggest that nowadays Turkish migrant status has no bearing on the outcome of childhood cancer therapies in Germany. The inclusion of currently more than 95% of all childhood cancer cases in standardised treatment protocols is likely to contribute to this finding. PMID:19040749

Bacteria survival probability in bactericidal filter paper.

PubMed

Mansur-Azzam, Nura; Hosseinidoust, Zeinab; Woo, Su Gyeong; Vyhnalkova, Renata; Eisenberg, Adi; van de Ven, Theo G M

2014-05-01

Bactericidal filter papers offer the simplicity of gravity filtration to simultaneously eradicate microbial contaminants and particulates. We previously detailed the development of biocidal block copolymer micelles that could be immobilized on a filter paper to actively eradicate bacteria. Despite the many advantages offered by this system, its widespread use is hindered by its unknown mechanism of action which can result in non-reproducible outcomes. In this work, we sought to investigate the mechanism by which a certain percentage of Escherichia coli cells survived when passing through the bactericidal filter paper. Through the process of elimination, the possibility that the bacterial survival probability was controlled by the initial bacterial load or the existence of resistant sub-populations of E. coli was dismissed. It was observed that increasing the thickness or the number of layers of the filter significantly decreased bacterial survival probability for the biocidal filter paper but did not affect the efficiency of the blank filter paper (no biocide). The survival probability of bacteria passing through the antibacterial filter paper appeared to depend strongly on the number of collision between each bacterium and the biocide-loaded micelles. It was thus hypothesized that during each collision a certain number of biocide molecules were directly transferred from the hydrophobic core of the micelle to the bacterial lipid bilayer membrane. Therefore, each bacterium must encounter a certain number of collisions to take up enough biocide to kill the cell and cells that do not undergo the threshold number of collisions are expected to survive. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cimetidine enhancement of cyclophosphamide antitumour activity.

PubMed Central

Dorr, R. T.; Alberts, D. S.

1982-01-01

Male DBA2 mice were given 10(6) P-388 leukaemic cells i.p. and cimetidine (CMT) at 100 mg/kg 1 day for 10 days, or as a single 100 mg/kg injection 30 min before cyclophosphamide (CTX). CMT significantly prolonged the survival of groups of mice receiving 50, 100 and 200 mg/kg of CTX 3 days after tumour inoculation. Median survival increased by 5.5 days (P less than 0.05), 10 days (P less than 0.05) and 13 days (P less than 0.05) respectively. The addition of CMT had the effect of roughly doubling the CTX dose, without increasing the lethality. CMT produced the only long-term survival seen in the study (1-2/10) CMT alone had no apparent antitumour activity. CMT significantly prolonged mean pentobarbital sleep to 28.6-60 min vs only 10 min for phenobarbital treated mice. Both CMT regimens increased the plasma concentration time products for CTX-induced metabolites (NBP) by about 1.3 fold (in contrast to a 33% reduction with phenobarbital). On average the single-dose CMT regimen produced the greatest effect on survival, on pentobarbital sleep duration and on total NBP reactive species. Probable mechanisms for the CMT-CTX interaction include competitive microsomal enzyme inhibition and/or acutely depressed hepatic blood flow. Caution should be used in combining CMT with full doses of CTX and any other highly metabolized antineoplastic agents in man. PMID:7059463

Assessing the effect of a partly unobserved, exogenous, binary time-dependent covariate on survival probabilities using generalised pseudo-values.

PubMed

Pötschger, Ulrike; Heinzl, Harald; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia; Mittlböck, Martina

2018-01-19

Investigating the impact of a time-dependent intervention on the probability of long-term survival is statistically challenging. A typical example is stem-cell transplantation performed after successful donor identification from registered donors. Here, a suggested simple analysis based on the exogenous donor availability status according to registered donors would allow the estimation and comparison of survival probabilities. As donor search is usually ceased after a patient's event, donor availability status is incompletely observed, so that this simple comparison is not possible and the waiting time to donor identification needs to be addressed in the analysis to avoid bias. It is methodologically unclear, how to directly address cumulative long-term treatment effects without relying on proportional hazards while avoiding waiting time bias. The pseudo-value regression technique is able to handle the first two issues; a novel generalisation of this technique also avoids waiting time bias. Inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting is used to account for the partly unobserved exogenous covariate donor availability. Simulation studies demonstrate unbiasedness and satisfying coverage probabilities of the new method. A real data example demonstrates that study results based on generalised pseudo-values have a clear medical interpretation which supports the clinical decision making process. The proposed generalisation of the pseudo-value regression technique enables to compare survival probabilities between two independent groups where group membership becomes known over time and remains partly unknown. Hence, cumulative long-term treatment effects are directly addressed without relying on proportional hazards while avoiding waiting time bias.

Habitat fragmentation effects on annual survival of the federally protected eastern indigo snake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, D.R.; Mazerolle, M.J.; Bolt, M.R.; Legare, M.L.; Drese, J.H.; Hines, J.E.

2012-01-01

The eastern indigo snake (Drymarchon couperi) is a federally listed species, most recently threatened by habitat loss and habitat degradation. In an effort to estimate snake survival, a total of 103 individuals (59 males, 44 females) were followed using radio-tracking from January 1998 to March 2004 in three landscape types that had increasing levels of habitat fragmentation: (1) conservation cores; (2) conservation areas along highways; (3) suburbs. Because of a large number of radio-tracking locations underground for which the state of snakes (i.e. alive or dead) could not be assessed, we employed a multistate approach to model snake apparent survival and encounter probability of live and dead snakes. We predicted that male snakes in suburbs would have the lowest annual survival. We found a transmitter implantation effect on snake encounter probability, as snakes implanted on a given occasion had a lower encounter probability on the next visit compared with snakes not implanted on the previous occasion. Our results indicated that adult eastern indigo snakes have relatively high survival in conservation core areas, but greatly reduced survival in conservation areas along highways and in suburbs. These findings indicate that habitat fragmentation is likely to be the critical factor for species' persistence.

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

2010-01-01

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Survival of juvenile black brant during brood rearing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Sedinger, James S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Survival of young is an important and poorly understood component of waterfowl productivity. We estimated survival of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) goslings during summers 1987-89 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, to determine timing and magnitude of gosling mortality and to compare methods of estimating gosling survival. Eighty-two percent of radio-tagged adult females (n = 61) fledged ≥1 gosling (brood success). We estimated survival of goslings within broods by 3 methods: (1) changes in mean brood size through time, (2) observation of goslings associated with marked adults, and (3) age ratios of brant captured in banding drives. Estimates of gosling survival within successful broods averaged 81% and ranged from 66 to 92%. Combining brood success and gosling survival within successful broods yielded estimates of overall gosling survival that averaged 68%, ranging from 79% in 1987 to 56% in 1989. Eighty-two percent of gosling mortality occurred in the first 15 days. Estimates of survival on the basis of age ratios of birds captured in banding drives are biased low. Our estimates of average gosling survival are higher than reported for other species of geese.

Snake River fall Chinook salmon life history investigations, annual report 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Connor, William P.; Bellgraph, Brian J.; Buchanan, Rebecca A.

2010-01-01

In 2009, we used radio and acoustic telemetry to evaluate the migratory behavior, survival, mortality, and delay of subyearling fall Chinook salmon in the Clearwater River and Lower Granite Reservoir. We released a total of 1,000 tagged hatchery subyearlings at Cherry Lane on the Clearwater River in mid August and we monitored them as they passed downstream through various river and reservoir reaches. Survival through the free-flowing river was high (>0.85) for both radio- and acoustic-tagged fish, but dropped substantially as fish delayed in the Transition Zone and Confluence areas. Estimates of the joint probability of migration and survival through the Transition Zone and Confluence reaches combined were similar for both radio- and acoustic-tagged fish, and ranged from about 0.30 to 0.35. Estimates of the joint probability of delaying and surviving in the combined Transition Zone and Confluence peaked at the beginning of the study, ranging from 0.323 ( SE =NA; radio-telemetry data) to 0.466 ( SE =0.024; acoustic-telemetry data), and then steadily declined throughout the remainder of the study. By the end of October, no live tagged juvenile salmon were detected in either the Transition Zone or the Confluence. As estimates of the probability of delay decreased throughout the study, estimates of the probability of mortality increased, as evidenced by the survival estimate of 0.650 ( SE =0.025) at the end of October (acoustic-telemetry data). Few fish were detected at Lower Granite Dam during our study and even fewer fish passed the dam before PIT-tag monitoring ended at the end of October. Five acoustic-tagged fish passed Lower Granite Dam in October and 12 passed the dam in November based on detections in the dam tailrace; however, too few detections were available to calculate the joint probabilities of migrating and surviving or delaying and surviving. Estimates of the joint probability of migrating and surviving through the reservoir was less than 0.2 based on acoustic-tagged fish. Migration rates of tagged fish were highest in the free-flowing river (median range = 36 to 43 km/d) but were generally less than 6 km/d in the reservoir reaches. In particular, median migration rates of radio-tagged fish through the Transition Zone and Confluence were 3.4 and 5.2 km/d, respectively. Median migration rate for acoustic-tagged fish though the Transition Zone and Confluence combined was 1 km/d.

Survival analysis of cancer risk reduction strategies for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

PubMed

Kurian, Allison W; Sigal, Bronislava M; Plevritis, Sylvia K

2010-01-10

Women with BRCA1/2 mutations inherit high risks of breast and ovarian cancer; options to reduce cancer mortality include prophylactic surgery or breast screening, but their efficacy has never been empirically compared. We used decision analysis to simulate risk-reducing strategies in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and to compare resulting survival probability and causes of death. We developed a Monte Carlo model of breast screening with annual mammography plus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from ages 25 to 69 years, prophylactic mastectomy (PM) at various ages, and/or prophylactic oophorectomy (PO) at ages 40 or 50 years in 25-year-old BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. With no intervention, survival probability by age 70 is 53% for BRCA1 and 71% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The most effective single intervention for BRCA1 mutation carriers is PO at age 40, yielding a 15% absolute survival gain; for BRCA2 mutation carriers, the most effective single intervention is PM, yielding a 7% survival gain if performed at age 40 years. The combination of PM and PO at age 40 improves survival more than any single intervention, yielding 24% survival gain for BRCA1 and 11% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. PM at age 25 instead of age 40 offers minimal incremental benefit (1% to 2%); substituting screening for PM yields a similarly minimal decrement in survival (2% to 3%). Although PM at age 25 plus PO at age 40 years maximizes survival probability, substituting mammography plus MRI screening for PM seems to offer comparable survival. These results may guide women with BRCA1/2 mutations in their choices between prophylactic surgery and breast screening.

Improving inferences from fisheries capture-recapture studies through remote detection of PIT tags

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Shively, Rip S.

2010-01-01

Models for capture-recapture data are commonly used in analyses of the dynamics of fish and wildlife populations, especially for estimating vital parameters such as survival. Capture-recapture methods provide more reliable inferences than other methods commonly used in fisheries studies. However, for rare or elusive fish species, parameter estimation is often hampered by small probabilities of re-encountering tagged fish when encounters are obtained through traditional sampling methods. We present a case study that demonstrates how remote antennas for passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags can increase encounter probabilities and the precision of survival estimates from capture-recapture models. Between 1999 and 2007, trammel nets were used to capture and tag over 8,400 endangered adult Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) during the spawning season in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Despite intensive sampling at relatively discrete spawning areas, encounter probabilities from Cormack-Jolly-Seber models were consistently low (< 0.2) and the precision of apparent annual survival estimates was poor. Beginning in 2005, remote PIT tag antennas were deployed at known spawning locations to increase the probability of re-encountering tagged fish. We compare results based only on physical recaptures with results based on both physical recaptures and remote detections to demonstrate the substantial improvement in estimates of encounter probabilities (approaching 100%) and apparent annual survival provided by the remote detections. The richer encounter histories provided robust inferences about the dynamics of annual survival and have made it possible to explore more realistic models and hypotheses about factors affecting the conservation and recovery of this endangered species. Recent advances in technology related to PIT tags have paved the way for creative implementation of large-scale tagging studies in systems where they were previously considered impracticable.

Apparent inferiority of first-time breeders in the kittiwake: The role of heterogeneity among age classes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.

2000-01-01

1. Many studies have provided evidence that first-time breeders have a lower survival, a lower probability of success, or of breeding, in the following year. Hypotheses based on reproductive costs have often been proposed to explain this. However, because of the intrinsic relationship between age and experience, the apparent inferiority of first-time breeders at the population level may result from selection, and experience may not influence performance within each individual. In this paper we address the question of phenotypic correlations between fitness components. This addresses differences in individual quality, a prerequisite for a selection process to occur. We also test the hypothesis of an influence of experience on these components while taking age and reproductive success into account: two factors likely to play a key role in a selection process. 2. Using data from a long-term study on the kittiwake, we found that first-time breeders have a lower probability of success, a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the next year than experienced breeders. However, neither experienced nor inexperienced breeders have a lower survival or a lower probability of breeding in the following year than birds that skipped a breeding opportunity. This suggests heterogeneity in quality among individuals. 3. Failed birds have a lower survival and a lower probability of breeding in the following year regardless of experience. This can be interpreted in the light of the selection hypothesis. The inferiority of inexperienced breeders may be linked to a higher proportion of lower-quality individuals in younger age classes. When age and breeding success are controlled for, there is no evidence of an influence of experience on survival or future breeding probability. 4. Using data from individuals whose reproductive life lasted the same number of years, we investigated the influence of experience on reproductive performance within individuals. There is no strong evidence that a process operating within individuals explains the improvement in performance observed at the population level.

Dynamic response of woody vegetation on fencing protection in semi-arid areas; Case study: Pilot exclosure on the Firmihin Plateau, Socotra Island.

PubMed

Habrova, Hana; Pavlis, Jindrich

2017-02-01

Woody vegetation dynamics and Dracaena cinnabari regeneration have been studied for five years in the conditions of Socotra Island. Woody plants were measured regularly inside and outside the exclosure area, and the growth and survival of D. cinnabari seedlings were observed. In the exclosure of about 1000 m 2 a total of 49 species were identified, including 23 endemics, growing in the average density of 3.82 specimens per m 2 . The fenced area was overgrown relatively rapidly by dense grass cover - reaching approx. 2.7 t/ha. Species growth dynamics inside and outside the exclosure shows that grazing had a marked impact, leading to the elimination of trees and shrubs. All grazed species grew noticeably in the exclosure, in the average of 50 cm in 5 years. D. cinnabari as the dominant flagship species of Socotra has been studied with regards to regeneration dynamics. Observations indicate that probability of its seedlings survival increases with their age. No seedlings germinated from the seeds sown in the experiment, however, outplanted seedlings performed relatively well. Field observations show that D. cinnabari seed germination is triggered when the seed reaches a protected micro-habitat with a developed humus layer and high relative humidity in the soil lasts for at least two days.

Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Álvaro

2015-04-01

Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We derive analytically the existence of finite-size scaling for the survival probability as a function of the control parameter and the maximum number of generations, obtaining the critical exponents as well as the exact scaling function, which is G (y ) =2 y ey /(ey-1 ) , with y the rescaled distance to the critical point. Our findings are valid for any branching process of the Galton-Watson type, independently of the distribution of the number of offspring, provided its variance is finite. This proves the universal behavior of the finite-size effects in branching processes, including the universality of the metric factors. The direct relation to mean-field percolation is also discussed.

Disabled Workers' Risk of Hospitalization and Death

PubMed Central

McCoy, John L.; Iams, Howard M.

1994-01-01

Data from the 1982 New Beneficiary Survey (NBS) were matched with 5 years (1984-88) of Social Security and Medicare data to analyze disabled workers' probability of death and inpatient care. Fifteen percent of the disabled workers died within 18-24 months of initial eligibility; 34 percent died within 5 years. Older disabled workers had higher probabilities of death and hospitalization. Males were two times as likely to die as females, but no more likely to be hospitalized. Black persons also had a higher risk of death but no greater risk of hospitalization than other races. Additional health insurance had no influence on survival, but was differentially associated with inpatient care. Married males were more likely to survive. Physical functioning capacity had no influence on survival or hospitalization. Respiratory, circulatory, and digestive disorders increased the probability of hospitalization and mortality. PMID:10172156

Demographics and 2008 Run Timing of Adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Hewitt, David A.; Barry, Patrick M.; Scott, Alta; Koller, Justin; Johnson, Mark; Blackwood, Greta

2009-01-01

We used capture-recapture data to assess population dynamics of endangered Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber method was used to estimate apparent survival probabilities, and a temporal symmetry model was used to estimate annual seniority probabilities. Information theoretic modeling was used to assess variation in parameter estimates due to time, gender, and species. In addition, length data were used to detect multiple year-class failures and events of high recruitment into adult spawning populations. Survival of adult Lost River and shortnose suckers varied substantially across years. Relatively high annual mortality was observed for the lakeshore-spawning Lost River sucker subpopulation in 2002 and for the river spawning subpopulation in 2001. Shortnose suckers experienced high mortality in 2001 and 2004. This indicates that high mortality events are not only species specific, but also are specific to subpopulations for Lost River suckers. Seniority probability estimates and length composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into adult sucker populations has been sparse. The overall fitness of Upper Klamath Lake sucker populations are of concern given the low observed survival in some years and the paucity of recent recruitment. During most years, estimates of survival probabilities were lower than seniority probabilities, indicating net losses in adult sucker population abundances. The evidence for decline was more marked for shortnose suckers than for Lost River suckers. Our data indicated that sucker survival for both species, but especially shortnose suckers, was sometimes low in years without any observed fish kills. This indicates that high mortality can occur over a protracted period, resulting in poor annual survival, but will not necessarily be observed in association with a fish kill. A better understanding of the factors influencing adult survival and recruitment into spawning populations is needed. Monitoring these vital parameters will provide a quantitative means to evaluate population status and assess the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

[Survival in patients with liver cirrhosis at the Durango, IMSS Regional General Hospital].

PubMed

Rodríguez-Hernández, Heriberto; Jacobo-Karam, Janett S; Castañón-Santillán, María del Carmen; Arámbula-Chávez, Mayela; Martínez-Aguilar, Gerardo

2002-01-01

In Mexico, hepatic cirrhosis mortality exhibits important regional differences. To analyze global survival of cirrhotic patients, according to etiology and functional status. Between March 1990 to August 1998, newly diagnosed patients with hepatic cirrhosis were included in a follow-up study. Subjects were analyzed monthly. Information on clinical evolution, complications, and dates of events (death) and complications were registered. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Ninety nine subjects were included in the survival analysis, 66 with alcoholic and 33 with viral cirrhosis (HCV and HBV in 24 and nine patients, respectively). Ninety seven percent of patients were decompensated at diagnosis, and 81% had ascites. Probabilities for survival in the entire series were 69.7, 37.6 and 23.6% at 24, 48, and 60 months, respectively. There were no significant differences in the survival of patients grouped according to etiology. When survival was analyzed by Child-Pugh score, it was slightly higher in the alcoholic cirrhosis group. In this study survival probability of patients with viral cirrhosis was lower than in patients with alcohol cirrhosis.

Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

2010-01-01

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ?? 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ?? 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ?? 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ?? 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that ??t (??t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized JollySeber estimator Pradel 1996) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated ??t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95 CI 0.9521.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95 CI 0.9461.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95 CI 0.9661.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95 CI 0.9471.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that ?? varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (??t; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 ?? ??3 ?? ??4 ?? .?? ??k -1, were based on estimates of ??t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first ye

Spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Royle, Andy; Boomer, G. Scott

2017-01-01

Knowledge of demographic parameters such as survival, reproduction, emigration, and immigration is essential to understand metapopulation dynamics. Traditionally the estimation of these demographic parameters requires intensive data from marked animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models makes it possible to estimate demographic parameters from count data of unmarked animals, but the original dynamic N-mixture model does not distinguish emigration and immigration from survival and reproduction, limiting its ability to explain important metapopulation processes such as movement among local populations. In this study we developed a spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model that estimates survival, reproduction, emigration, local population size, and detection probability from count data under the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches. Simulation studies showed that the inference of our model depends on detection probability, local population size, and the implementation of robust sampling design. Our model provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when detection probability is high, regardless of local population size or the type of sampling design. When detection probability is low, however, our model only provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when local population size is moderate to high and robust sampling design is used. A sensitivity analysis showed that our model is robust against the violation of the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches, suggesting wide applications of this model. Our model can be used to improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics based on count data that are relatively easy to collect in many systems.

Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

Survival and growth of American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) hatchlings after artificial incubation and repatriation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Temsiripong, Y.; Woodward, A.R.; Ross, J.P.; Kubilis, P.S.; Percival, H.F.

2006-01-01

Hatchling American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) produced from artificially incubated wild eggs were returned to their natal areas (repatriated). We compared artificially incubated and repatriated hatchlings released within and outside the maternal alligator's home range with naturally incubated hatchlings captured and released within the maternal alligator's home range on Lake Apopka, Lake Griffin, and Orange Lake in Florida. We used probability of recapture and total length at approximately nine months after hatching as indices of survival and growth rates. Artificially incubated hatchlings released outside of the maternal alligator's home range had lower recapture probabilities than either naturally incubated hatchlings or artificially incubated hatchlings released near the original nest site. Recapture probabilities of other treatments did not differ significantly. Artificially incubated hatchlings were approximately 6% shorter than naturally incubated hatchlings at approximately nine months after hatching. We concluded that repatriation of hatchlings probably would not have long-term effects on populations because of the resiliency of alligator populations to alterations of early age-class survival and growth rates of the magnitude that we observed. Repatriation of hatchlings may be an economical alternative to repatriation of older juveniles for population restoration. However, the location of release may affect subsequent survival and growth. Copyright 2006 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

New estimates of lethality of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) attacks on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush): Implications for fisheries management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, C.P.; Chipman, B.D.; Marsden, J.E.

2008-01-01

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control in North America costs millions of dollars each year, and control measures are guided by assessment of lamprey-induced damage to fisheries. The favored prey of sea lamprey in freshwater ecosystems has been lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). A key parameter in assessing sea lamprey damage, as well as managing lake trout fisheries, is the probability of an adult lake trout surviving a lamprey attack. The conventional value for this parameter has been 0.55, based on laboratory experiments. In contrast, based on catch curve analysis, mark-recapture techniques, and observed wounding rates, we estimated that adult lake trout in Lake Champlain have a 0.74 probability of surviving a lamprey attack. Although sea lamprey growth in Lake Champlain was lower than that observed in Lake Huron, application of an individual-based model to both lakes indicated that the probability of surviving an attack in Lake Champlain was only 1.1 times higher than that in Lake Huron. Thus, we estimated that lake trout survive a lamprey attack in Lake Huron with a probability of 0.66. Therefore, our results suggested that lethality of a sea lamprey attack on lake trout has been overestimated in previous model applications used in fisheries management. ?? 2008 NRC.

Factors influencing nest survival and productivity of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizzolo, Daniel; Schmutz, Joel A.; McCloskey, Sarah E.; Fondell, Thomas F.

2014-01-01

Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata) numbers in Alaska have fluctuated dramatically over the past 3 decades; however, the demographic processes contributing to these population dynamics are poorly understood. To examine spatial and temporal variation in productivity, we estimated breeding parameters at 5 sites in Alaska: at Cape Espenberg and the Copper River Delta we estimated nest survival, and at 3 sites within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta we estimated nest survival and productivity. Nest survival varied broadly among sites and years; annual estimates (lower, upper 95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.09 (0.03, 0.29) at Cape Espenberg in 2001 to 0.93 (0.76, 0.99) at the Copper River Delta in 2002. Annual variation among sites was not concordant, suggesting that site-scale factors had a strong influence on nest survival. Models of nest survival indicated that visits to monitor nests had a negative effect on nest daily survival probability, which if not accounted for biased nest survival strongly downward. The sensitivity of breeding Red-throated Loons to nest monitoring suggests other sources of disturbance that cause incubating birds to flush from their nests may also reduce nest survival. Nest daily survival probability at the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta was negatively associated with an annual index of fox occurrence. Survival through the incubation and chick-rearing periods on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.09 (0.001, 0.493) to 0.50 (0.04, 0.77). Daily survival probability during the chick-rearing period was lower for chicks that had a sibling in 2 of 3 years, consistent with the hypothesis that food availability was limited. Estimates of annual productivity on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.17 to 1.0 chicks per pair. Productivity was not sufficient to maintain population stability in 2 of 3 years, indicating that nest depredation by foxes and poor foraging conditions during chick rearing can have important effects on productivity.

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

PubMed

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INCLUDING TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN NEST SURVIVAL ESTIMATION: A MAYFIELD MARKOV CHAIN

EPA Science Inventory

This manuscript is primarily an exploration of the statistical properties of nest-survival estimates for terrestrial songbirds. The Mayfield formulation described herein should allow researchers to test for complicated effects of stressors on daily survival and overall success, i...

Passage and survival probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Amy C.; Smith, Collin D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

2014-01-01

This report describes studies of juvenile-salmon dam passage and apparent survival at Cougar Dam, Oregon, during two operating conditions in 2012. Cougar Dam is a 158-meter tall rock-fill dam used primarily for flood control, and passes water through a temperature control tower to either a powerhouse penstock or to a regulating outlet (RO). The temperature control tower has moveable weir gates to enable water of different elevations and temperatures to be drawn through the dam to control water temperatures downstream. A series of studies of downstream dam passage of juvenile salmonids were begun after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that Cougar Dam was impacting the viability of anadromous fish stocks. The primary objectives of the studies described in this report were to estimate the route-specific fish passage probabilities at the dam and to estimate the survival probabilities of fish passing through the RO. The first set of dam operating conditions, studied in November, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,589 feet, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the weir gates, (3) most water routed through the turbines during the day and through the RO during the night, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 1.2 feet during the day and 3.2 feet during the night. The second set of dam operating conditions, studied in December, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,507 ft, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the RO bypass, (3) all water passing through the RO, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 7.3 feet during the day and 7.5 feet during the night. The studies were based on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. Inferences about general dam passage percentage and timing of volitional migrants were based on surface-acclimated fish released in the reservoir. Dam passage and apparent survival probabilities were estimated using the Route-Specific-Survival Model with data from surface-acclimated fish released near the water surface directly upstream of the temperature control tower (treatment group) and slightly downstream of the dam (control group). In this study, apparent survival is the joint probability of surviving and migrating through the study area during the life of the transmitters. Two rearing groups were used to enable sufficient sample sizes for the studies. The groups differed in feed type, and for the December study only, the rearing location. Fish from each group were divided nearly equally among all combinations of release sites, release times, and surgeons. The sizes, travel times, and survivals of the two rearing groups were similar. There were statistical differences in fish lengths and travel times of the two groups, but they were small and likely were not biologically meaningful. There also was evidence of a difference in single-release estimates of survival between the rearing groups during the December study, but the differences had little effect on the relative survival estimates so the analyses of passage and survival were based on data from the rearing groups pooled. Conditions during the December study were more conducive to passing volitionally migrating fish than conditions during the November study. The passage percentage of the fish released in the reservoir was similar between studies (about 70 percent), but the passage occurred in a median of 1.0 day during the December study and a median of 9.3 days during the November study. More than 93 percent of the dam passage of volitionally migrating fish occurred at night during each study. This finding corroborates results of previous studies at Cougar Dam and suggests that the operating conditions at night are most important to volitionally migrating fish, given the current configuration of the dam. Most fish released near the temperature control tower passed through the RO. A total of 92.2 percent of the treatment group passed through the RO during the November study and the RO was the only route open during the December study. The assumptions of the survival model were either met or adjusted for during each study. There was little evidence that tagger skill or premature failure of radio transmitters had an effect on survival estimates. There were statistically significant differences in travel times between treatment and control groups through several of the river reaches they had in common, but the differences were typically only a few hours, and the two groups likely experienced the same in-river conditions. There was direct evidence of bias due to detection of euthanized fish with live transmitters released as part of the study design. The bias was ameliorated by adjusting the survival estimates for the probability of detecting dead fish with live transmitters, which reduced the estimated survival probabilities by about 0.02. The data and models indicated that the treatment effect was not fully expressed until the study reach terminating with Marshall Island Park on the Willamette River, a distance of 105.8 kilometers downstream of Cougar Dam. This was the first reach in which the 95-percent confidence interval of the estimated reach-specific relative survival overlapped 1.0, indicating similar survival of treatment and control groups. The median travel time of the treatment group from release to Marshall Island Park was 1.64 days during the November study and 1.36 days during the December study. The survival probability of fish that passed into the RO was greater during the December study than during the November study. The relative survival probability of fish passing through the RO was 0.4594 (standard error [SE] 0.0543) during the November study and 0.7389 (SE 0.1160) during the December study. These estimates represent relative survival probabilities from release near Cougar Dam to the Marshall Island site. The estimated survival probability of RO passage was lower than previous studies based on balloon and PIT tags, but higher than a similar study based on radio transmitters. We suggest that, apart from dam operations, the differences in survival primarily are due to the release location. We hypothesize that the balloon- and PIT-tagged fish released through a hose at a point near the RO gate opening experienced more benign conditions than the radio-tagged fish passing the RO volitionally. This hypothesis could be tested with further study. An alternative hypothesis is that some live fish remained within the study area beyond the life of their radio transmitter. The results from these and previous studies indicate that entrainment and survival of juvenile salmonids passing Cougar Dam varies with dam operating conditions. The condition most conducive to dam passage has been the discharge and low pool elevation condition tested during December 2012. That condition included large RO gate openings and was the condition with the highest dam passage survival.

Hospital of diagnosis and probability of having surgical treatment for resectable gastric cancer.

PubMed

van Putten, M; Verhoeven, R H A; van Sandick, J W; Plukker, J T M; Lemmens, V E P P; Wijnhoven, B P L; Nieuwenhuijzen, G A P

2016-02-01

Gastric cancer surgery is increasingly being centralized in the Netherlands, whereas the diagnosis is often made in hospitals where gastric cancer surgery is not performed. The aim of this study was to assess whether hospital of diagnosis affects the probability of undergoing surgery and its impact on overall survival. All patients with potentially curable gastric cancer according to stage (cT1/1b-4a, cN0-2, cM0) diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 were selected from The Netherlands Cancer Registry. Multilevel logistic regression was used to examine the probability of undergoing surgery according to hospital of diagnosis. The effect of variation in probability of undergoing surgery among hospitals of diagnosis on overall survival during the intervals 2005-2009 and 2010-2013 was examined by using Cox regression analysis. A total of 5620 patients with potentially curable gastric cancer, diagnosed in 91 hospitals, were included. The proportion of patients who underwent surgery ranged from 53.1 to 83.9 per cent according to hospital of diagnosis (P < 0.001); after multivariable adjustment for patient and tumour characteristics it ranged from 57.0 to 78.2 per cent (P < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression showed that patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2013 in hospitals with a low probability of patients undergoing curative treatment had worse overall survival (hazard ratio 1.21; P < 0.001). The large variation in probability of receiving surgery for gastric cancer between hospitals of diagnosis and its impact on overall survival indicates that gastric cancer decision-making is suboptimal. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Lowe, Michael R; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J; Slack, William T; Schofield, Pamela J

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0-60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2-368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86-92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

A Synthesis of Tagging Studies Examining the Behaviour and Survival of Anadromous Salmonids in Marine Environments

PubMed Central

Drenner, S. Matthew; Clark, Timothy D.; Whitney, Charlotte K.; Martins, Eduardo G.; Cooke, Steven J.; Hinch, Scott G.

2012-01-01

This paper synthesizes tagging studies to highlight the current state of knowledge concerning the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids in the marine environment. Scientific literature was reviewed to quantify the number and type of studies that have investigated behaviour and survival of anadromous forms of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), brown trout (Salmo trutta), steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii). We examined three categories of tags including electronic (e.g. acoustic, radio, archival), passive (e.g. external marks, Carlin, coded wire, passive integrated transponder [PIT]), and biological (e.g. otolith, genetic, scale, parasites). Based on 207 papers, survival rates and behaviour in marine environments were found to be extremely variable spatially and temporally, with some of the most influential factors being temperature, population, physiological state, and fish size. Salmonids at all life stages were consistently found to swim at an average speed of approximately one body length per second, which likely corresponds with the speed at which transport costs are minimal. We found that there is relatively little research conducted on open-ocean migrating salmonids, and some species (e.g. masu [O. masou] and amago [O. rhodurus]) are underrepresented in the literature. The most common forms of tagging used across life stages were various forms of external tags, coded wire tags, and acoustic tags, however, the majority of studies did not measure tagging/handling effects on the fish, tag loss/failure, or tag detection probabilities when estimating survival. Through the interdisciplinary application of existing and novel technologies, future research examining the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids could incorporate important drivers such as oceanography, tagging/handling effects, predation, and physiology. PMID:22431962

A synthesis of tagging studies examining the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids in marine environments.

PubMed

Drenner, S Matthew; Clark, Timothy D; Whitney, Charlotte K; Martins, Eduardo G; Cooke, Steven J; Hinch, Scott G

2012-01-01

This paper synthesizes tagging studies to highlight the current state of knowledge concerning the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids in the marine environment. Scientific literature was reviewed to quantify the number and type of studies that have investigated behaviour and survival of anadromous forms of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), brown trout (Salmo trutta), steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii). We examined three categories of tags including electronic (e.g. acoustic, radio, archival), passive (e.g. external marks, Carlin, coded wire, passive integrated transponder [PIT]), and biological (e.g. otolith, genetic, scale, parasites). Based on 207 papers, survival rates and behaviour in marine environments were found to be extremely variable spatially and temporally, with some of the most influential factors being temperature, population, physiological state, and fish size. Salmonids at all life stages were consistently found to swim at an average speed of approximately one body length per second, which likely corresponds with the speed at which transport costs are minimal. We found that there is relatively little research conducted on open-ocean migrating salmonids, and some species (e.g. masu [O. masou] and amago [O. rhodurus]) are underrepresented in the literature. The most common forms of tagging used across life stages were various forms of external tags, coded wire tags, and acoustic tags, however, the majority of studies did not measure tagging/handling effects on the fish, tag loss/failure, or tag detection probabilities when estimating survival. Through the interdisciplinary application of existing and novel technologies, future research examining the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids could incorporate important drivers such as oceanography, tagging/handling effects, predation, and physiology.

Survival, Growth and Reproduction of Non-Native Nile Tilapia II: Fundamental Niche Projections and Invasion Potential in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Lowe, Michael R.; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S.; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J.; Slack, William T.; Schofield, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi. PMID:22848533

External validation of the diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma survival prediction model: a collaborative report from the International DIPG Registry and the SIOPE DIPG Registry.

PubMed

Veldhuijzen van Zanten, Sophie E M; Lane, Adam; Heymans, Martijn W; Baugh, Joshua; Chaney, Brooklyn; Hoffman, Lindsey M; Doughman, Renee; Jansen, Marc H A; Sanchez, Esther; Vandertop, William P; Kaspers, Gertjan J L; van Vuurden, Dannis G; Fouladi, Maryam; Jones, Blaise V; Leach, James

2017-08-01

We aimed to perform external validation of the recently developed survival prediction model for diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG), and discuss its utility. The DIPG survival prediction model was developed in a cohort of patients from the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Germany, registered in the SIOPE DIPG Registry, and includes age <3 years, longer symptom duration and receipt of chemotherapy as favorable predictors, and presence of ring-enhancement on MRI as unfavorable predictor. Model performance was evaluated by analyzing the discrimination and calibration abilities. External validation was performed using an unselected cohort from the International DIPG Registry, including patients from United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Basic comparison with the results of the original study was performed using descriptive statistics, and univariate- and multivariable regression analyses in the validation cohort. External validation was assessed following a variety of analyses described previously. Baseline patient characteristics and results from the regression analyses were largely comparable. Kaplan-Meier curves of the validation cohort reproduced separated groups of standard (n = 39), intermediate (n = 125), and high-risk (n = 78) patients. This discriminative ability was confirmed by similar values for the hazard ratios across these risk groups. The calibration curve in the validation cohort showed a symmetric underestimation of the predicted survival probabilities. In this external validation study, we demonstrate that the DIPG survival prediction model has acceptable cross-cohort calibration and is able to discriminate patients with short, average, and increased survival. We discuss how this clinico-radiological model may serve a useful role in current clinical practice.

Survival, growth and reproduction of non-native Nile tilapia II: fundamental niche projections and invasion potential in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowe, Michael R.; Wu, Wei; Peterson, Mark S.; Brown-Peterson, Nancy J.; Slack, William T.; Schofield, Pamela J.

2012-01-01

Understanding the fundamental niche of invasive species facilitates our ability to predict both dispersal patterns and invasion success and therefore provides the basis for better-informed conservation and management policies. Here we focus on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus, 1758), one of the most widely cultured fish worldwide and a species that has escaped local aquaculture facilities to become established in a coastal-draining river in Mississippi (northern Gulf of Mexico). Using empirical physiological data, logistic regression models were developed to predict the probabilities of Nile tilapia survival, growth, and reproduction at different combinations of temperature (14 and 30°C) and salinity (0–60, by increments of 10). These predictive models were combined with kriged seasonal salinity data derived from multiple long-term data sets to project the species' fundamental niche in Mississippi coastal waters during normal salinity years (averaged across all years) and salinity patterns in extremely wet and dry years (which might emerge more frequently under scenarios of climate change). The derived fundamental niche projections showed that during the summer, Nile tilapia is capable of surviving throughout Mississippi's coastal waters but growth and reproduction were limited to river mouths (or upriver). Overwinter survival was also limited to river mouths. The areas where Nile tilapia could survive, grow, and reproduce increased during extremely wet years (2–368%) and decreased during extremely dry years (86–92%) in the summer with a similar pattern holding for overwinter survival. These results indicate that Nile tilapia is capable of 1) using saline waters to gain access to other watersheds throughout the region and 2) establishing populations in nearshore, low-salinity waters, particularly in the western portion of coastal Mississippi.

Survivability Versus Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2014-01-01

Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

PubMed Central

Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

2018-01-01

In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

Survival probabilities of patients with childhood spinal muscle atrophy.

PubMed

Mannaa, Mohannad M; Kalra, Maninder; Wong, Brenda; Cohen, Aliza P; Amin, Raouf S

2009-03-01

Medical and technological advances over the past 2 decades have resulted in improved patient care for children with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). The objective of the present study was to describe changes in the life expectancy of pediatric patients with SMA over time and to compare these findings with previously reported survival patterns. Medical records of all patients diagnosed with SMA over a 16-year period (1989-2005) at Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center were reviewed. Data pertaining to date of birth, type of SMA, medical and surgical interventions, pulmonary complications, and date of death were obtained. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses showed a significant improvement in survival probabilities in the severest form of SMA. We found a positive trend in the survival of patients with severe SMA. Although we cannot attribute this trend to any single factor, it is likely that advances in pulmonary care and aggressive nutritional support have played a significant role.

[Type 2 dens fracture in the elderly and therapy-linked mortality : Conservative or operative treatment].

PubMed

Stein, G; Meyer, C; Marlow, L; Christ, H; Müller, L P; Isenberg, J; Eysel, P; Schiffer, G; Faymonville, C

2017-02-01

Type II fractures of the odontoid process of the axis are the most common injury of the cervical spine in elderly patients. Only little evidence exists on whether elderly patients should be treated conservatively or surgically. The mortality and survival probability of 51 patients were determined in a retrospective study. The range of motion, pain and the neck disability index were clinically investigated. Of the 51 patients 37 were treated surgically and 14 conservatively. The conservatively treated group showed a higher mortality (64 % vs. 32 %). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a median survival of the conservatively treated group of 29 months, whereby during the first 3 months of treatment this group showed a higher survival probability and afterwards the surgically treated group showed a higher survival probability. The clinical examination of 20 patients revealed limited range of motion of the cervical spine. Additionally, moderate levels of pain and complaints were recorded using the neck disability index. Fractures of the odontoid process pose a far-reaching danger for elderly patients. A balanced assessment of the general condition should be carried out at the beginning of treatment of these patients. In the early phase following trauma no differences were found with respect to survival rates but for long-term survival the operatively treated group showed advantages; however, these advantages cannot be causally attributed to the choice of therapy.

Plant colonization and survival along a hydrological gradient: demography and niche dynamics.

PubMed

Damgaard, Christian; Merlin, Amandine; Bonis, Anne

2017-01-01

Predicting the effect of a changing environment, e.g., caused by climate change, on realized niche dynamics, and consequently, biodiversity is a challenging scientific question that needs to be addressed. One promising approach is to use estimated demographic parameters for predicting plant abundance and occurrence probabilities. Using longitudinal pinpoint cover data sampled along a hydrological gradient in the Marais poitevin grasslands, France, the effect of the gradient on the demographic probabilities of colonization and survival was estimated. The estimated probabilities and calculated elasticities of survival and colonization covaried with the observed cover of the different species along the hydrological gradient. For example, the flooding tolerant grass A. stolonifera showed a positive response in both colonization and survival to flooding, and the hydrological gradient is clearly the most likely explanation for the occurrence pattern observed for A. stolonifera. The results suggest that knowledge on the processes of colonization and survival of the individual species along the hydrological gradient is sufficient for at least a qualitative understanding of species occurrences along the gradient. The results support the hypothesis that colonization has a predominant role for determining the ecological success along the hydrological gradient compared to survival. Importantly, the study suggests that it may be possible to predict the realized niche of different species from demographic studies. This is encouraging for the important endeavor of predicting realized niche dynamics.

Survival estimation and the effects of dependency among animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, James S.; Rexstad, Eric A.

1995-01-01

Survival models assume that fates of individuals are independent, yet the robustness of this assumption has been poorly quantified. We examine how empirically derived estimates of the variance of survival rates are affected by dependency in survival probability among individuals. We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate known amounts of dependency among pairs of individuals and analyzed these data with Kaplan-Meier and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Dependency significantly increased these empirical variances as compared to theoretically derived estimates of variance from the same populations. Using resighting data from 168 pairs of black brant, we used a resampling procedure and program RELEASE to estimate empirical and mean theoretical variances. We estimated that the relationship between paired individuals caused the empirical variance of the survival rate to be 155% larger than the empirical variance for unpaired individuals. Monte Carlo simulations and use of this resampling strategy can provide investigators with information on how robust their data are to this common assumption of independent survival probabilities.

Survival of Near-Critical Branching Brownian Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berestycki, Julien; Berestycki, Nathanaël; Schweinsberg, Jason

2011-06-01

Consider a system of particles performing branching Brownian motion with negative drift μ= sqrt{2 - \\varepsilon} and killed upon hitting zero. Initially there is one particle at x>0. Kesten (Stoch. Process. Appl. 7:9-47, 1978) showed that the process survives with positive probability if and only if ɛ>0. Here we are interested in the asymptotics as ɛ→0 of the survival probability Q μ ( x). It is proved that if L=π/sqrt{\\varepsilon} then for all x∈ℝ, lim ɛ→0 Q μ ( L+ x)= θ( x)∈(0,1) exists and is a traveling wave solution of the Fisher-KPP equation. Furthermore, we obtain sharp asymptotics of the survival probability when x< L and L- x→∞. The proofs rely on probabilistic methods developed by the authors in (Berestycki et al. in arXiv: 1001.2337, 2010). This completes earlier work by Harris, Harris and Kyprianou (Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré Probab. Stat. 42:125-145, 2006) and confirms predictions made by Derrida and Simon (Europhys. Lett. 78:60006, 2007), which were obtained using nonrigorous PDE methods.

Fluctuating survival selection explains variation in avian group size

PubMed Central

Brown, Charles R.; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Roche, Erin A.; O’Brien, Valerie A.; Page, Catherine E.

2016-01-01

Most animal groups vary extensively in size. Because individuals in certain sizes of groups often have higher apparent fitness than those in other groups, why wide group size variation persists in most populations remains unexplained. We used a 30-y mark–recapture study of colonially breeding cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) to show that the survival advantages of different colony sizes fluctuated among years. Colony size was under both stabilizing and directional selection in different years, and reversals in the sign of directional selection regularly occurred. Directional selection was predicted in part by drought conditions: birds in larger colonies tended to be favored in cooler and wetter years, and birds in smaller colonies in hotter and drier years. Oscillating selection on colony size likely reflected annual differences in food availability and the consequent importance of information transfer, and/or the level of ectoparasitism, with the net benefit of sociality varying under these different conditions. Averaged across years, there was no net directional change in selection on colony size. The wide range in cliff swallow group size is probably maintained by fluctuating survival selection and represents the first case, to our knowledge, in which fitness advantages of different group sizes regularly oscillate over time in a natural vertebrate population. PMID:27091998

Fluctuating survival selection explains variation in avian group size.

PubMed

Brown, Charles R; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Roche, Erin A; O'Brien, Valerie A; Page, Catherine E

2016-05-03

Most animal groups vary extensively in size. Because individuals in certain sizes of groups often have higher apparent fitness than those in other groups, why wide group size variation persists in most populations remains unexplained. We used a 30-y mark-recapture study of colonially breeding cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) to show that the survival advantages of different colony sizes fluctuated among years. Colony size was under both stabilizing and directional selection in different years, and reversals in the sign of directional selection regularly occurred. Directional selection was predicted in part by drought conditions: birds in larger colonies tended to be favored in cooler and wetter years, and birds in smaller colonies in hotter and drier years. Oscillating selection on colony size likely reflected annual differences in food availability and the consequent importance of information transfer, and/or the level of ectoparasitism, with the net benefit of sociality varying under these different conditions. Averaged across years, there was no net directional change in selection on colony size. The wide range in cliff swallow group size is probably maintained by fluctuating survival selection and represents the first case, to our knowledge, in which fitness advantages of different group sizes regularly oscillate over time in a natural vertebrate population.

Fluctuating survival selection explains variation in avian group size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Charles B.; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Roche, Erin A.; O'brien, Valerie A; Page, Catherine E.

2016-01-01

Most animal groups vary extensively in size. Because individuals in certain sizes of groups often have higher apparent fitness than those in other groups, why wide group size variation persists in most populations remains unexplained. We used a 30-y mark–recapture study of colonially breeding cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) to show that the survival advantages of different colony sizes fluctuated among years. Colony size was under both stabilizing and directional selection in different years, and reversals in the sign of directional selection regularly occurred. Directional selection was predicted in part by drought conditions: birds in larger colonies tended to be favored in cooler and wetter years, and birds in smaller colonies in hotter and drier years. Oscillating selection on colony size likely reflected annual differences in food availability and the consequent importance of information transfer, and/or the level of ectoparasitism, with the net benefit of sociality varying under these different conditions. Averaged across years, there was no net directional change in selection on colony size. The wide range in cliff swallow group size is probably maintained by fluctuating survival selection and represents the first case, to our knowledge, in which fitness advantages of different group sizes regularly oscillate over time in a natural vertebrate population.

Reduced survival for uncemented compared to cemented total hip arthroplasty after operatively treated acetabular fractures.

PubMed

Clarke-Jenssen, John; Westberg, Marianne; Røise, Olav; Storeggen, Stein Arne Øvre; Bere, Tone; Silberg, Ingunn; Madsen, Jan Erik

2017-11-01

Post traumatic arthritis and avascular necrosis of the femoral head are common complications after operatively treated acetabular fractures. This may cause severe disabilities for the patient, necessitating a total hip arthroplasty. Even though an arthroplasty may provide good symptomatic relief, the long-term results are more uncertain and no consensus exists according to preferred prosthetic designs. With this cohort study, we aimed to investigate the medium to long term arthroplasty survival and clinical results of total hip arthroplasty after operatively treated acetabular fractures. We included 52 patients treated with a secondary total hip arthroplasty at a median of 2.4 (0.1-14.1) years after an operatively treated acetabular fracture. The median age was 54 (11-82) years. Cemented arthroplasty was used for 33 patients, 10 patients had an uncemented arthroplasty and 9 patients received a hybrid arthroplasty. Average follow up was 8.0 (SD 5.0) years. Ten-year revision free arthroplasty survival was 79%. Uncemented arthroplasties had a significantly worse 10-year survival of 57%. Arthroplasties performed at a centre without a pelvic fracture service also had a significantly worse 10-years survival of 51%. Cox regression showed similar results with an 8-fold increase in risk of revision for both uncemented arthroplasties and operations performed at a non-pelvic trauma centre. Total hip arthroplasty secondary to an operatively treated acetabular fracture provides good symptomatic relief. These patients are, however, complex cases and are probably best treated at specialist centres with both pelvic trauma surgeons and arthroplasty surgeons proficient in complex revisions present. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Pilliod, D.S.

2011-01-01

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6years of capture-recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0??41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0??51-0??54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0??75-0??78) but lower recruitment rates (0??25). Synthesis and applications.We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Precise calculation of a bond percolation transition and survival rates of nodes in a complex network.

PubMed

Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

2015-01-01

Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition.

The random coding bound is tight for the average code.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallager, R. G.

1973-01-01

The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.

Asymptotic Time Decay in Quantum Physics: a Selective Review and Some New Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchetti, Domingos H. U.; Wreszinski, Walter F.

2013-05-01

Decay of various quantities (return or survival probability, correlation functions) in time are the basis of a multitude of important and interesting phenomena in quantum physics, ranging from spectral properties, resonances, return and approach to equilibrium, to dynamical stability properties and irreversibility and the "arrow of time" in [Asymptotic Time Decay in Quantum Physics (World Scientific, 2013)]. In this review, we study several types of decay — decay in the average, decay in the Lp-sense, and pointwise decay — of the Fourier-Stieltjes transform of a measure, usually identified with the spectral measure, which appear naturally in different mathematical and physical settings. In particular, decay in the Lp-sense is related both to pointwise decay and to decay in the average and, from a physical standpoint, relates to a rigorous form of the time-energy uncertainty relation. Both decay on the average and in the Lp-sense are related to spectral properties, in particular, absolute continuity of the spectral measure. The study of pointwise decay for singular continuous measures (Rajchman measures) provides a bridge between ergodic theory, number theory and analysis, including the method of stationary phase. The theory is illustrated by some new results in the theory of sparse models.

Data-Driven Lead-Acid Battery Prognostics Using Random Survival Forests

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-02

Kogalur, Blackstone , & Lauer, 2008; Ishwaran & Kogalur, 2010). Random survival forest is a sur- vival analysis extension of Random Forests (Breiman, 2001...Statistics & probability letters, 80(13), 1056–1064. Ishwaran, H., Kogalur, U. B., Blackstone , E. H., & Lauer, M. S. (2008). Random survival forests. The

Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

PubMed

Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

2008-04-01

Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Technical report. The application of probability-generating functions to linear-quadratic radiation survival curves.

PubMed

Kendal, W S

2000-04-01

To illustrate how probability-generating functions (PGFs) can be employed to derive a simple probabilistic model for clonogenic survival after exposure to ionizing irradiation. Both repairable and irreparable radiation damage to DNA were assumed to occur by independent (Poisson) processes, at intensities proportional to the irradiation dose. Also, repairable damage was assumed to be either repaired or further (lethally) injured according to a third (Bernoulli) process, with the probability of lethal conversion being directly proportional to dose. Using the algebra of PGFs, these three processes were combined to yield a composite PGF that described the distribution of lethal DNA lesions in irradiated cells. The composite PGF characterized a Poisson distribution with mean, chiD+betaD2, where D was dose and alpha and beta were radiobiological constants. This distribution yielded the conventional linear-quadratic survival equation. To test the composite model, the derived distribution was used to predict the frequencies of multiple chromosomal aberrations in irradiated human lymphocytes. The predictions agreed well with observation. This probabilistic model was consistent with single-hit mechanisms, but it was not consistent with binary misrepair mechanisms. A stochastic model for radiation survival has been constructed from elementary PGFs that exactly yields the linear-quadratic relationship. This approach can be used to investigate other simple probabilistic survival models.

Average probability that a "cold hit" in a DNA database search results in an erroneous attribution.

PubMed

Song, Yun S; Patil, Anand; Murphy, Erin E; Slatkin, Montgomery

2009-01-01

We consider a hypothetical series of cases in which the DNA profile of a crime-scene sample is found to match a known profile in a DNA database (i.e., a "cold hit"), resulting in the identification of a suspect based only on genetic evidence. We show that the average probability that there is another person in the population whose profile matches the crime-scene sample but who is not in the database is approximately 2(N - d)p(A), where N is the number of individuals in the population, d is the number of profiles in the database, and p(A) is the average match probability (AMP) for the population. The AMP is estimated by computing the average of the probabilities that two individuals in the population have the same profile. We show further that if a priori each individual in the population is equally likely to have left the crime-scene sample, then the average probability that the database search attributes the crime-scene sample to a wrong person is (N - d)p(A).

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Heather M.; Flint, Paul L.; Powell, Abby N.; Grand, J. Barry; Moral, Christine L.

2012-01-01

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

End-of-Life Medical Treatment Choices

PubMed Central

Chao, Li-Wei; Pagán, José A.; Soldo, Beth J.

2008-01-01

Background Out-of-pocket medical expenditures incurred prior to the death of a spouse could deplete savings and impoverish the surviving spouse. Little is known about the public’s opinion as to whether spouses should forego such end-of-life (EOL) medical care to prevent asset depletion. Objectives To analyze how elderly and near elderly adults assess hypothetical EOL medical treatment choices under different survival probabilities and out-of-pocket treatment costs. Methods Survey data on a total of 1143 adults, with 589 from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) and 554 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), were used to study EOL cancer treatment recommendations for a hypothetical anonymous married woman in her 80s. Results Respondents were more likely to recommend treatment when it was financed by Medicare than by the patient’s own savings and when it had 60% rather than 20% survival probability. Black and male respondents were more likely to recommend treatment regardless of survival probability or payment source. Treatment uptake was related to the order of presentation of treatment options, consistent with starting point bias and framing effects. Conclusions Elderly and near elderly adults would recommend that the hypothetical married woman should forego costly EOL treatment when the costs of the treatment would deplete savings. When treatment costs are covered by Medicare, respondents would make the recommendation to opt for care even if the probability of survival is low, which is consistent with moral hazard. The sequence of presentation of treatment options seems to affect patient treatment choice. PMID:18441252

Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

PubMed

Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

2018-01-01

Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Escape problem under stochastic volatility: The Heston model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume; Perelló, Josep

2008-11-01

We solve the escape problem for the Heston random diffusion model from a finite interval of span L . We obtain exact expressions for the survival probability (which amounts to solving the complete escape problem) as well as for the mean exit time. We also average the volatility in order to work out the problem for the return alone regardless of volatility. We consider these results in terms of the dimensionless normal level of volatility—a ratio of the three parameters that appear in the Heston model—and analyze their form in several asymptotic limits. Thus, for instance, we show that the mean exit time grows quadratically with large spans while for small spans the growth is systematically slower, depending on the value of the normal level. We compare our results with those of the Wiener process and show that the assumption of stochastic volatility, in an apparently paradoxical way, increases survival and prolongs the escape time. We finally observe that the model is able to describe the main exit-time statistics of the Dow-Jones daily index.

An Examination of the Sagan-Coleman formula for application to planetary protection for Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barengoltz, Jack

2016-07-01

The Sagan-Coleman formulafootnote{ Sagan, C.; Coleman, S. (1965). "Spacecraft sterilization standards and contamination of Mars". Journal of Astronautics and Aeronautics 3 (5): 22-27.} was originally published as a method to estimate the probability of contamination of Mars by a spacecraft. This estimate was required to satisfy the NASA planetary protection requirements for Mars, which were at the time specified in terms of a maximum allowed value for the probability of contamination. The form of the formula is: P{}_{c} = N{}_{0}{}_{ }P{}_{1}*P{}_{2}*....P{}_{n}*P{}_{g} Here P{}_{c}, the probability of contamination is the probability that one or more of N{}_{0} microbes on the spacecraft will survive to a release on the surface of Mars and reproduce. P{}_{g} is the probability of growth (reproduction, per microbe). Before the identification of the necessary parameters for a flight mission to Europa, it is worthwhile to clarify the mathematical origin of the formula. In fact, the phrase ``one or more'' of the N{}_{0}{}_{ }microbes provides{}_{ }a clue. The exact mathematical form is: [P_c=1-{(1-p)}^{N_0}] Here p is the probability per microbe that it will survive and grow, 1-p is the probability that it won't, {(1-p)}^{N_0} is the probability that all N{}_{0} microbes fail to survive and grow. Thus the last value subtracted from unity is the probability of ``one or more'' surviving and growing. For the case that N{}_{0} p << 1 , the quantity in parentheses may be approximated by the first two terms of a Taylor expansion as 1 - N{}_{0}{}_{ }p, so that P{}_{c} = N{}_{0}{}_{ }p of course. For planetary protection purposes, the approximation is typically adequate. Nevertheless, an upper limit for the error (the residual from the truncation of the series) is provided. More importantly, the parameters are shown to be in three categories, at least one of which violates the derivation. That category is comprised of parameters that are independent of N{}_{0}, for example, the probability that the spacecraft impacts Europa (or Mars) P{}_{I}. This factor (and possibly others) may not be used to demonstrate N{}_{0} p << 1. The formula is now: [P_c=P_I [1-{(1-p)}^{N_0}

Assessing survival of Mid-Columbia River released juvenile salmonids at McNary Dam, Washington, 2008-09

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Scott D.; Walker, Christopher E.; Brewer, Scott J.; Adams, Noah S.

2010-01-01

Few studies have evaluated survival of juvenile salmon over long river reaches in the Columbia River and information regarding the survival of sockeye salmon at lower Columbia River dams is lacking. To address these information gaps, the U.S. Geological Survey was contracted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to evaluate the possibility of using tagged fish released in the Mid-Columbia River to assess passage and survival at and downstream of McNary Dam. Using the acoustic telemetry systems already in place for a passage and survival study at McNary Dam, fish released from the tailraces of Wells, Rocky Reach, Rock Island, Wanapum, and Priest Rapids Dams were detected at McNary Dam and at the subsequent downstream arrays. These data were used to generate route-specific survival probabilities using single-release models from fish released in the Mid-Columbia River. We document trends in passage and survival probabilities at McNary Dam for yearling Chinook and sockeye salmon and juvenile steelhead released during studies in the Mid-Columbia River. Trends in the survival and passage of these juvenile salmonid species are presented and discussed. However, comparisons made across years and between study groups are not possible because of differences in the source of the test fish, the type of acoustic tags used, the absence of the use of passive integrated transponder tags in some of the release groups, differences in tagging and release protocols, annual differences in dam operations and configurations, differences in how the survival models were constructed (that is, number of routes that could be estimated given the number of fish detected), and the number and length of reaches included in the analysis (downstream reach length and arrays). Despite these differences, the data we present offer a unique opportunity to examine the migration behavior and survival of a group of fish that otherwise would not be studied. This is particularly true for sockeye salmon because little information is available about their survival as they pass hydroelectric dams in the lower Columbia River. Collecting information on fish released in the Mid-Columbia River, as well as on fish released 8 kilometers upstream of McNary Dam, allowed us to evaluate similarities and differences in passage and survival probabilities. In general, juvenile salmonids released in the Mid-Columbia River and detected at and downstream of McNary Dam showed trends in passage and survival probabilities that were similar to fish released 8 kilometers upstream of McNary Dam. This suggests that increased migration time or length of migration had little effect on behavior and survival of Mid-Columbia River released juvenile salmonids detected at McNary Dam.

The effects of force-fledging and premature fledging on the survival of nestling songbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Iknayan, Kelly J.; Andersen, David E.

2013-01-01

Despite the broad consensus that force-fledging of nestling songbirds lowers their probability of survival and therefore should be generally avoided by researchers, that presumption has not been tested. We used radiotelemetry to monitor the survival of fledglings of OvenbirdsSeiurus aurocapilla and Golden-winged Warblers Vermivora chrysoptera that we unintentionally force-fledged (i.e. nestlings left the nest in response to our research activities at typical fledging age), that fledged prematurely (i.e. nestlings left the nest earlier than typical fledging age), and that fledged independently of our activities. Force-fledged Ovenbirds experienced significantly higher survival than those that fledged independent of our activities, and prematurely fledged Ovenbirds had a similarly high survival to those that force-fledged at typical fledging age. We observed a similar, though not statistically significant, pattern in Golden-winged Warbler fledgling survival. Our results suggest that investigator-induced force-fledging of nestlings, even when deemed premature, does not necessarily result in reduced fledgling survival in these species. Instead, our results suggest that a propensity or ability to fledge in response to disturbance may be a predictor of a higher probability of fledgling survival.

Distribution and Joint Fish-Tag Survival of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Migrating through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Adams, Noah S.

2009-01-01

Acoustic telemetry was used to obtain the movement histories of 915 juvenile fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) through the lower San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, in 2008. Data were analyzed within a release-recapture framework to estimate survival, route distribution, and detection probabilities among three migration pathways through the Delta. The pathways included the primary route through the San Joaquin River and two less direct routes (Old River and Turner Cut). Strong inferences about survival were limited by premature tag failure, but estimates of fish distribution among migration routes should be unaffected by tag failure. Based on tag failure tests (N = 66 tags), we estimated that only 55-78 percent of the tags used in this study were still functioning when the last fish was detected exiting the study area 15 days after release. Due to premature tag failure, our 'survival' estimates represent the joint probability that both the tag and fish survived, not just survival of fish. Low estimates of fish-tag survival could have been caused by fish mortality or fish travel times that exceeded the life of the tag, but we were unable to differentiate between the two. Fish-tag survival through the Delta (from Durham Ferry to Chipps Island by all routes) ranged from 0.05 +or- 0.01 (SE) to 0.06 +or- 0.01 between the two weekly release groups. Among the three migration routes, fish that remained in the San Joaquin River exhibited the highest joint fish-tag survival (0.09 +or- 0.02) in both weeks, but only 22-33 percent of tagged fish used this route, depending on the week of release. Only 4-10 percent (depending on week) of tagged fish traveled through Turner Cut, but no tagged fish that used this route were detected exiting the Delta. Most fish (63-68 percent, depending on week of release) migrated through Old River, but fish-tag survival through this route (0.05 +or- 0.01) was only about one-half that of fish that remained in the San Joaquin River. Once tagged fish entered Old River, only fish collected at two large water conveyance projects and transported through the Delta by truck were detected exiting the Delta, suggesting that this route was the only successful migration pathway for fish that entered Old River. The rate of entrainment of tagged juvenile salmon into Old River was similar to the fraction of San Joaquin River discharge flowing into Old River, which averaged 63 percent but varied tidally and ranged from 33 to 100 percent daily. Although improvements in transmitter battery life are clearly needed, this information will help guide the development of future research and monitoring efforts in this system.

Passage survival of juvenile steelhead, coho salmon, and Chinook salmon in Lake Scanewa and at Cowlitz Falls Dam, Cowlitz River, Washington, 2010–16

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liedtke, Theresa L.; Kock, Tobias J.; Hurst, William

2018-04-03

A multi-year evaluation was conducted during 2010–16 to evaluate passage survival of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) in Lake Scanewa, and at Cowlitz Falls Dam in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, Washington. Reservoir passage survival was evaluated in 2010, 2011, and 2016, and included the tagging and release of 1,127 juvenile salmonids. Tagged fish were released directly into the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers, 22.3 and 8.9 km, respectively, upstream of the reservoir, and were monitored as they moved downstream into, and through the reservoir. A single release-recapture survival model was used to analyze detection records and estimate reservoir passage survival, which was defined as successful passage from reservoir entry to arrival at Cowlitz Falls Dam. Tagged fish generally moved quickly downstream of the release sites and, on average, arrived in the dam forebay within 2 d of release. Median travel time from release to first detection at the dam ranged from 0.23 to 0.96 d for juvenile steelhead, from 0.15 to 1.11 d for juvenile coho salmon, and from 0.18 to 1.89 d for juvenile Chinook salmon. Minimum reservoir passage survival probabilities were 0.960 for steelhead, 0.855 for coho salmon and 0.900 for Chinook salmon.Dam passage survival was evaluated at the pilot-study level during 2013–16 and included the tagging and release of 2,512 juvenile salmonids. Juvenile Chinook salmon were evaluated during 2013–14, and juvenile steelhead and coho salmon were evaluated during 2015–16. A paired-release study design was used that included release sites located upstream and downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam. The downstream release site was positioned at the downstream margin of the dam’s tailrace, which allowed dam passage survival to be measured in a manner that included mortality that occurred in the passage route and in the dam tailrace. More than one-half of the tagged Chinook salmon (52 percent) released upstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam moved downstream and passed the project; the remaining fish either remained upstream of the dam (37 percent) or were collected (11 percent). In 2015 and 2016, collection efficiencies at Cowlitz Falls Dam were abnormally high for juvenile steelhead and coho salmon, which resulted in few fish passing the dam. Seven percent of the tagged steelhead (40 fish) and 4 percent of the tagged coho salmon (18 fish) released upstream of the dam eventually passed the project, but these low numbers of fish precluded the estimation of meaningful survival estimates. Dam passage survival probability estimates for juvenile Chinook salmon were 0.828 in 2013 and 0.861 in 2014, lower than previously reported for turbine-specific passage Cowlitz Falls Dam.

Burial duration, depth and air pocket explain avalanche survival patterns in Austria and Switzerland.

PubMed

Procter, Emily; Strapazzon, Giacomo; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Zweifel, Benjamin; Würtele, Andreas; Renner, Andreas; Falk, Markus; Brugger, Hermann

2016-08-01

To calculate the first Austrian avalanche survival curve and update a Swiss survival curve to explore survival patterns in the Alps. Avalanche accidents occurring between 2005/06 and 2012/13 in Austria and Switzerland were collected. Completely buried victims (i.e. burial of the head and chest) in open terrain with known outcome (survived or not survived) were included in the analysis. Extrication and survival curves were calculated using the Turnbull algorithm, as in previous studies. 633 of the 796 completely buried victims were included (Austria n=333, Switzerland n=300). Overall survival was 56% (Austria 59%; Switzerland 52%; p=0.065). Time to extrication was shorter in Austria for victims buried ≤60min (p<0.001). The survival curves were similar and showed a rapid initial drop in survival probability and a second drop to 25-28% survival probability after burial duration of ca. 35min, where an inflection point exists and the curve levels off. In a logistic regression analysis, both duration of burial and burial depth had an independent effect on survival. Victims with an air pocket were more likely to survive, especially if buried >15min. The survival curves resembled those previously published and support the idea that underlying survival patterns are reproducible. The results are in accordance with current recommendations for management of avalanche victims and serve as a reminder that expedient companion rescue within a few minutes is critical for survival. An air pocket was shown to be a positive prognostic factor for survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Limitation of Inverse Probability-of-Censoring Weights in Estimating Survival in the Presence of Strong Selection Bias

PubMed Central

Howe, Chanelle J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Chmiel, Joan S.; Muñoz, Alvaro

2011-01-01

In time-to-event analyses, artificial censoring with correction for induced selection bias using inverse probability-of-censoring weights can be used to 1) examine the natural history of a disease after effective interventions are widely available, 2) correct bias due to noncompliance with fixed or dynamic treatment regimens, and 3) estimate survival in the presence of competing risks. Artificial censoring entails censoring participants when they meet a predefined study criterion, such as exposure to an intervention, failure to comply, or the occurrence of a competing outcome. Inverse probability-of-censoring weights use measured common predictors of the artificial censoring mechanism and the outcome of interest to determine what the survival experience of the artificially censored participants would be had they never been exposed to the intervention, complied with their treatment regimen, or not developed the competing outcome. Even if all common predictors are appropriately measured and taken into account, in the context of small sample size and strong selection bias, inverse probability-of-censoring weights could fail because of violations in assumptions necessary to correct selection bias. The authors used an example from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, 1984–2008, regarding estimation of long-term acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-free survival to demonstrate the impact of violations in necessary assumptions. Approaches to improve correction methods are discussed. PMID:21289029

The role of body size versus growth on the decision to migrate: a case study with Salmo trutta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acolas, M. L.; Labonne, J.; Baglinière, J. L.; Roussel, J. M.

2012-01-01

In a population exhibiting partial migration (i.e. migration and residency tactics occur in the same population), the mechanisms underlying the tactical choice are still unclear. Empirical studies have highlighted a variety of factors that could influence the coexistence of resident and migratory individuals, with growth and body size considered to be key factors in the decision to migrate. Most studies suffer from at least one of the two following caveats: (1) survival and capture probabilities are not taken into account in the data analysis, and (2) body size is often used as a proxy for individual growth. We performed a capture-mark-recapture experiment to study partial migration among juvenile brown trout Salmo trutta at the end of their first year, when a portion of the population emigrate from the natal stream while others choose residency tactic. Bayesian multistate capture-recapture models accounting for survival and recaptures probabilities were used to investigate the relative role of body size and individual growth on survival and migration probabilities. Our results show that, despite an apparent effect of both size and growth on migration, growth is the better integrative parameter and acts directly on migration probability whereas body size acts more strongly on survival. Consequently, we recommend caution if size is used as a proxy for growth when studying the factors that drive partial migration in juvenile salmonid species.

Assessing the performance of the generalized propensity score for estimating the effect of quantitative or continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2018-01-01

Propensity score methods are frequently used to estimate the effects of interventions using observational data. The propensity score was originally developed for use with binary exposures. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score for use with quantitative or continuous exposures (e.g. pack-years of cigarettes smoked, dose of medication, or years of education). We describe how the GPS can be used to estimate the effect of continuous exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. To do so we modified the concept of the dose-response function for use with time-to-event outcomes. We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of different methods of using the GPS to estimate the effect of quantitative exposures on survival or time-to-event outcomes. We examined covariate adjustment using the GPS and weighting using weights based on the inverse of the GPS. The use of methods based on the GPS was compared with the use of conventional G-computation and weighted G-computation. Conventional G-computation resulted in estimates of the dose-response function that displayed the lowest bias and the lowest variability. Amongst the two GPS-based methods, covariate adjustment using the GPS tended to have the better performance. We illustrate the application of these methods by estimating the effect of average neighbourhood income on the probability of survival following hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction.

Morphometry of white muscle fibers and performance of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fingerlings treated with methyltestosterone or a homeopathic complex.

PubMed

Júnior, R P; Vargas, L; Valentim-Zabott, M; Ribeiro, R P; da Silva, A V; Otutumi, L K

2012-07-01

Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), are widely used in fish farming, hormonal treatments are used to increase productivity. Studies of the characteristics of the fiber types are important in species that have well developed muscle mass, such as Nile tilapia. A total of 4800 post-larval fish were randomly assigned by tank to receive one of three treatments: Control (30°GL alcohol), Homeopathic complex (Homeopatila RS) or Hormone (17-α-methyltestosterone) supplemented in the feed for 28 days. Survival and morphological parameters were measured at day 45. At day 45, the survival rates were 54.1% (Control), 87.8% (Homeopathy), 50.3% (Hormone). The mean final weight for Homeopathy was statistically significantly lower (1.07 g) than the other two groups: Control (1.81 g) and Hormone (2.04 g). Mean total lengths were Control (4.75 cm), Hormone (4.49 cm), statistically significantly different from Homeopathy (3.83 cm). Average partial length, trunk length, height and body width were significantly lower for Homeopathy than Control or Hormone (p<0.05) Homeopathy treated fish had significantly greater muscle fiber diameter than the other two groups. Fish treated with the homeopathic complex had improved survival and muscle fiber hypertrophy, but were smaller (probably related to increased survival and overcrowding) compared to fingerlings treated with synthetic hormone or control. Copyright © 2012 The Faculty of Homeopathy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food web structure and the evolution of ecological communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quince, Christopher; Higgs, Paul G.; McKane, Alan J.

Simulations of the coevolution of many interacting species are performed using the Webworld model. The model has a realistic set of predator-prey equations that describe the population dynamics of the species for any structure of the food web. The equations account for competition between species for the same resources, and for the diet choice of predators between alternative prey according to an evolutionarily stable strategy. The set of species present undergoes long-term evolution d ue to speciation and extinction events. We summarize results obtained on the macro-evolutionary dynamics of speciations and extinctions, and on the statistical properties of the food webs that are generated by the model. Simulations begin from small numbers of species and build up to larger webs with relatively constant species number on average. The rate of origination and extinction of species are relatively high, but remain roughly balanced throughout the simulations. When a 'parent' species undergoes sp eciation, the 'child' species usually adds to the same trophic level as the parent. The chance of the child species surviving is significantly higher if the parent is on the second or third trophic level than if it is on the first level, most likely due to a wider choice of possible prey for species on higher levels. Addition of a new species sometimes causes extinction of existing species. The parent species has a high probability of extinction because it has strong competition with the new species. Non-pa rental competitors of the new species also have a significantly higher extinction probability than average, as do prey of the new species. Predators of the new species are less likely than average to become extinct.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

PubMed

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Clinical Impact of Additional Cytogenetic Aberrations, cKIT and RAS Mutations, and Treatment Elements in Pediatric t(8;21)-AML: Results From an International Retrospective Study by the International Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster Study Group

PubMed Central

Klein, Kim; Kaspers, Gertjan; Harrison, Christine J.; Beverloo, H. Berna; Reedijk, Ardine; Bongers, Mathilda; Cloos, Jacqueline; Pession, Andrea; Reinhardt, Dirk; Zimmerman, Martin; Creutzig, Ursula; Dworzak, Michael; Alonzo, Todd; Johnston, Donna; Hirsch, Betsy; Zapotocky, Michal; De Moerloose, Barbara; Fynn, Alcira; Lee, Vincent; Taga, Takashi; Tawa, Akio; Auvrignon, Anne; Zeller, Bernward; Forestier, Erik; Salgado, Carmen; Balwierz, Walentyna; Popa, Alexander; Rubnitz, Jeffrey; Raimondi, Susana; Gibson, Brenda

2015-01-01

Purpose This retrospective cohort study aimed to determine the predictive relevance of clinical characteristics, additional cytogenetic aberrations, and cKIT and RAS mutations, as well as to evaluate whether specific treatment elements were associated with outcomes in pediatric t(8;21)-positive patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Patients and Methods Karyotypes of 916 pediatric patients with t(8;21)-AML were reviewed for the presence of additional cytogenetic aberrations, and 228 samples were screened for presence of cKIT and RAS mutations. Multivariable regression models were used to assess the relevance of anthracyclines, cytarabine, and etoposide during induction and overall treatment. End points were the probability of achieving complete remission, cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR), probability of event-free survival, and probability of overall survival. Results Of 838 patients included in final analyses, 92% achieved complete remission. The 5-year overall survival, event-free survival, and CIR were 74%, 58%, and 26%, respectively. cKIT mutations and RAS mutations were not significantly associated with outcome. Patients with deletions of chromosome arm 9q [del(9q); n = 104] had a lower probability of complete remission (P = .01). Gain of chromosome 4 (+4; n = 21) was associated with inferior CIR and survival (P < .01). Anthracycline doses greater than 150 mg/m2 and etoposide doses greater than 500 mg/m2 in the first induction course and high-dose cytarabine 3 g/m2 during induction were associated with better outcomes on various end points. Cumulative doses of cytarabine greater than 30 g/m2 and etoposide greater than 1,500 mg/m2 were associated with lower CIR rates and better probability of event-free survival. Conclusion Pediatric patients with t(8;21)-AML and additional del(9q) or additional +4 might not be considered at good risk. Patients with t(8;21)-AML likely benefit from protocols that have high doses of anthracyclines, etoposide, and cytarabine during induction, as well as from protocols comprising cumulative high doses of cytarabine and etoposide. PMID:26573082

Social class and survival on the S.S. Titanic.

PubMed

Hall, W

1986-01-01

Passengers' chances of surviving the sinking of the S.S. Titanic were related to their sex and their social class: females were more likely to survive than males, and the chances of survival declined with social class as measured by the class in which the passenger travelled. The probable reasons for these differences in rates of survival are discussed as are the reasons accepted by the Mersey Committee of Inquiry into the sinking.

20 CFR 725.521 - Commutation of payments; lump sum awards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... probability of the death of the disabled miner and/or other persons entitled to benefits before the expiration... Welfare, and the probability of the remarriage of a surviving spouse shall be determined in accordance with the remarriage tables of the Dutch Royal Insurance Institution. The probability of the happening...

Evaluating the Potential of Tributary Restoration to Increase the Overall Survival of Salmon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budy, P.; Schaller, H.

2006-12-01

Stream restoration has become a major focus of conservation efforts with millions of dollars spent each year on efforts aimed at recovering imperiled species; however, for animals with complex life-history strategies, this reliance on stream restoration for increasing overall survival requires that several key assumptions be met. We addressed fundamental uncertainties of the current focus on tributary restoration for recovery of endangered Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): 1) is there potential for improving habitat in tributary streams, 2) what magnitude of early survival improvement can be expected based on stream restoration, and 3) will incremental increases in early survival be sufficient to ensure viability of the populations that compose the Evolutionarily Significant Unit (ESU)? We combined simple mechanistic habitat models, population viability measures, and categorical filters to quantify the potential for increasing total life-cycle survival (TLCS) across all 32 populations (ESU), based on increases to early freshwater survival, predicted to occur in response to restored tributary condition. A wide gap remains between how much survival improvement is needed, versus what is likely to occur under tributary restoration; tributary restoration has the potential to increase survival to the necessary minimum for only four populations in the ESU while the remaining populations (84%) still fall far below the survival needed for future viability. In addition, across the ESU; on average, a 171% increase in TLCS is necessary, whereas only ~106% appears possible. A recovery strategy for these salmon that relies largely on tributary restoration, to mitigate for known mortality imposed at other life stages (e.g., migration through hydropower dams) is risky and has a low probability of success. For animals with complex life cycles and exhibiting long migrations, stream restoration efforts may be ineffective and misplaced, if the targeted life stage is not limiting or unresponsive, and/or if there is little potential for increasing survival overall. We demonstrate both an approach for, and the importance of, completing a comprehensive a prior evaluation of restoration potential, such that scarce resources can be allocated to efforts with the greatest potential and the least amount of risk.

The effects of site, supplemental food, and age on survivorship of Carolina Chickadees and implications for dispersal through- riparian corridors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Grubb, T.G.

2000-01-01

Few studies have examined survivorship of animals in forest fragments differing in size, and none has used appropriate mark-recapture analysis techniques taking into account probability of recapture. Using Program MARK, a flexible mark-recapture software package, we estimated annual survival rates of Carolina Chickadees over a 5-yr period in a fragmented landscape in Ohio. The probability of survival was related to site (riparian woodland or woodlot area) and increased with the presence of supplemental food. While there was little evidence for an age difference in apparent survival in woodlots, young birds appeared to survive less well in forested river corridors. This last result was quite likely due, at least in part, to age-specific dispersal, suggesting that river corridors function as important dispersal routes for young birds.

Factors influencing survival and mark retention in postmetamorphic boreal chorus frogs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Jennifer E; Bailey, Larissa L.; Muths, Erin L.; Funk, W. Chris

2013-01-01

The ability to track individual animals is crucial in many field studies and often requires applying marks to captured individuals. Toe clipping has historically been a standard marking method for wild amphibian populations, but more recent marking methods include visual implant elastomer and photo identification. Unfortunately, few studies have investigated the influence and effectiveness of marking methods for recently metamorphosed individuals and as a result little is known about this life-history phase for most amphibians. Our focus was to explore survival probabilities, mark retention, and mark migration in postmetamorphic Boreal Chorus Frogs (Psuedacris maculata) in a laboratory setting. One hundred forty-seven individuals were assigned randomly to two treatment groups or a control group. Frogs in the first treatment group were marked with visual implant elastomer, while frogs in the second treatment group were toe clipped. Growth and mortality were recorded for one year and resulting data were analyzed using known-fate models in Program MARK. Model selection results suggested that survival probabilities of frogs varied with time and showed some variation among marking treatments. We found that frogs with multiple toes clipped on the same foot had lower survival probabilities than individuals in other treatments, but individuals can be marked by clipping a single toe on two different feet without any mark loss or negative survival effects. Individuals treated with visual implant elastomer had a mark migration rate of 4% and mark loss rate of 6%, and also showed very little negative survival impacts relative to control individuals.

Mallard brood movements, wetland use, and duckling survival during and following a prairie drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krapu, G.L.; Pietz, P.J.; Brandt, D.A.; Cox, R.R.

2006-01-01

We used radiotelemetry to study mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) brood movements, wetland use, and duckling survival during a major drought (1988-1992) and during the first 2 years of the subsequent wet period (1993-1994) at 4 51-km2 sites in prairie pothole landscapes in eastern North Dakota, USA. About two-thirds of 69 radiomarked mallard broods initiated moves from the nest to water before noon, and all left the nest during daylight. On average, broods used fewer wetlands, but moved greater distances during the dry period than the wet period. Broods of all ages were more likely to make inter-wetland moves during the wet period and probabilities of inter-wetland moves decreased as duckling age increased, especially during the dry period. Brood use of seasonal wetlands nearly doubled from 22% to 43% and use of semi-permanent wetlands declined from 73% to 50% from the dry to the wet period. Eighty-one of 150 radiomarked ducklings died during 1,604 exposure days. We evaluated survival models containing variables related to water conditions, weather, duckling age, and hatch date. Model-averaged risk ratios indicated that, on any given date, radiomarked ducklings were 1.5 (95% CI = 0.8-2.8) times more likely to die when the percentage of seasonal basins containing water (WETSEAS) was ???18% than when WETSEAS was >40%. An interaction between duckling age and occurrence of rain on the current or 2 previous days indicated that rain effects were pronounced when ducklings were 0-7 days old but negligible when they were 8-30 days old. The TMIN (mean daily minimum temperature on the current and 2 previous days) effects generally were consistent between duckling age classes, and the risk of duckling death increased 9.3% for each 1??C decrease in TMIN across both age classes. Overall, the 30-day survival rate of ducklings equipped with radiotransmitters was about 0.23 lower than the survival rate of those without radiotransmitiers. Unmarked ducklings were 7.6 (95% CI = 2.7-21.3) times more likely to die on any given day when WETSEAS was ???18% than when WETSEAS was >40%. Higher duckling survival and increased use of seasonal wetlands during the wet period suggest that mallard production will benefit from programs that conserve and restore seasonal wetland habitat. Given adverse effects of low temperatures on duckling survival, managers may want to include this stochastic variable in models used to predict annual production of mallards in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Precise Calculation of a Bond Percolation Transition and Survival Rates of Nodes in a Complex Network

PubMed Central

Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

2015-01-01

Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition. PMID:25885791

Survival and migration behavior of juvenile Coho Salmon in the Klamath River relative to discharge at Iron Gate Dam, Northern California, 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Juhnke, Steve; Stutzer, Greg; Hetrick, Nicholas

2008-01-01

This report describes a study of survival and migration behavior of radio-tagged juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Klamath River, northern California, in 2007. This was the third year of a multi-year study with the goal of determining the effects of discharge at Iron Gate Dam (IGD) on survival of juvenile coho salmon downstream. Survival and factors affecting survival were estimated in 2006 and 2007 after work in 2005 showed radio telemetry could be used effectively. The study has included collaborative efforts among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Karuk and Yurok Tribal Fisheries Departments, and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The objectives of the study included: (1) estimating the survival of wild and hatchery juvenile coho salmon in the Klamath River downstream of Iron Gate Dam, determining the effects of discharge and other covariates on juvenile coho salmon survival (2) and migration (3), and (4) determining if fish from Iron Gate Hatchery (IGH) could be used as surrogates for the limited source of wild fish. We have been able to meet the first objective by estimating the survivals of hatchery and wild fish (when available) downstream of IGD. We have not yet met the second or third objectives, because we have been unable to separate effects of discharge from other environmental variables as they pertain to the survival or migration of juvenile coho salmon. This was foreseen when the study began, as it was known there would likely be no experimental discharges. A multi-year analysis will be conducted after the data for the third planned year are available. The fourth objective was initiated in 2006, but wild fish were not available in 2007. The next year wild fish may be available is in 2009, based on their 3-year cycle of abundance. River discharges during the 2007 study period (April 10 through July 28, 2007) were below average compared to the period of record beginning in 1962. Average daily discharge at IGD was 1,518 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and ranged from 1,020 to 2,460 ft3/s. Average daily discharge near the estuary at river kilometer (rkm) 13 was 9,820 ft3/s and ranged from 3,270 to 20,500 ft3/s. This study was based on hatchery fish taken directly from a holding tank at IGH. Wild fish were not available in numbers sufficient for use in 2007. Fish tagging began on April 9 and concluded on May 17, 2007. A total of 246 hatchery coho salmon were tagged and released, split evenly between releases in the Klamath River near IGH (rkm 309) and near the Tree of Heaven campground at rkm 280. The two release sites were used to enable estimation of a relative survival between IGH and the campground using the paired-release design, because potential effects of tagging and handling can be cancelled out with this method. However, the assumption that the survival probabilities of fish from each release site are equal in the reaches they have in common was violated, preventing its use in 2007. All estimates of survival were therefore calculated using the single-release design. The reach-specific estimates of survival were lower in 2007 than in 2006, but a similar survival pattern was evident among reaches in each year. The survival from IGH to rkm 33 was 0.653 [standard error (SE) 0.039] in 2006 and 0.497 (SE 0.044) in 2007. In each year, the reaches with the lowest survivals were upstream of the Scott River, which also is the area with the greatest differences in survivals between years. The reach with the highest survivals were in the Salmon River-to-Trinity River reach (at or near 1.0 in each year). The cause of the difference in survivals in each year were not identified, but could be related to differences in discharge or turbidity, as these are the primary differences between the years. These differences and other effects will be analyzed when the data from all study years (initially planned for 2006 through 2008) are available. Models of su

Detection of nuclear resonance signals: modification of the receiver operating characteristics using feedback.

PubMed

Blauch, A J; Schiano, J L; Ginsberg, M D

2000-06-01

The performance of a nuclear resonance detection system can be quantified using binary detection theory. Within this framework, signal averaging increases the probability of a correct detection and decreases the probability of a false alarm by reducing the variance of the noise in the average signal. In conjunction with signal averaging, we propose another method based on feedback control concepts that further improves detection performance. By maximizing the nuclear resonance signal amplitude, feedback raises the probability of correct detection. Furthermore, information generated by the feedback algorithm can be used to reduce the probability of false alarm. We discuss the advantages afforded by feedback that cannot be obtained using signal averaging. As an example, we show how this method is applicable to the detection of explosives using nuclear quadrupole resonance. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Multiple interactions and rapidity gap survival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoze, V. A.; Martin, A. D.; Ryskin, M. G.

2018-05-01

Observations of rare processes containing large rapidity gaps at high energy colliders may be exceptionally informative. However the cross sections of these events are small in comparison with that for the inclusive processes since there is a large probability that the gaps may be filled by secondary particles arising from additional soft interactions or from gluon radiation. Here we review the calculations of the probability that the gaps survive population by particles from these effects for a wide range of different processes.

Early Survival and Growth of Planted Northern Red Oak in the Southern Appalachians

Treesearch

David F. Olson; Ralph M. Hooper

1968-01-01

This paper presents a-year survival and growth data for six northern red oak plantings, each containing three morphological seedling grades, over a range of site indexes from 76 to 98 feet at age 50.Seedling survival averaged 94 percent, with no important differences due to seedling grade or site index. Height growth has averaged only 3 inches a year. There...

Tumor angiogenesis in advanced stage ovarian carcinoma.

PubMed

Hollingsworth, H C; Kohn, E C; Steinberg, S M; Rothenberg, M L; Merino, M J

1995-07-01

Tumor angiogenesis has been found to have prognostic significance in many tumor types for predicting an increased risk of metastasis. We assessed tumor vascularity in 43 cases of advanced stage (International Federation of Gynecologists and Obstetricians stages III and IV) ovarian cancer by using the highly specific endothelial cell marker CD34. Microvessel counts and stage were associated with disease-free survival and with overall survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis. The plots show that higher stage, higher average vessel count at 200x (200x avg) and 400x (400x avg) magnification and highest vessel count at 400x (400x high) magnification confer a worse prognosis for disease-free survival. Average vessel count of less than 16 (400x avg, P2 = 0.01) and less than 45 (200x avg, P2 = 0.026) suggested a better survival. Similarly, a high vessel count of less than 20 (400x high, P2 = 0.019) conferred a better survival as well. The plots suggest that higher stage, higher average vessel count at 200x and 400x, and highest vessel count at 200x and 400x show a trend to worse overall survival as well. With the Cox proportional hazards model, stage was the best predictor of overall survival, however, the average microvessel count at 400x was found to be the best predictor of disease-free survival. These results suggest that analysis of neovascularization in advanced stage ovarian cancer may be a useful prognostic factor.

Effects of multiple levels of social organization on survival and abundance.

PubMed

Ward, Eric J; Semmens, Brice X; Holmes, Elizabeth E; Balcomb Iii, Ken C

2011-04-01

Identifying how social organization shapes individual behavior, survival, and fecundity of animals that live in groups can inform conservation efforts and improve forecasts of population abundance, even when the mechanism responsible for group-level differences is unknown. We constructed a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify the relative variability in survival rates among different levels of social organization (matrilines and pods) of an endangered population of killer whales (Orcinus orca). Individual killer whales often participate in group activities such as prey sharing and cooperative hunting. The estimated age-specific survival probabilities and survivorship curves differed considerably among pods and to a lesser extent among matrilines (within pods). Across all pods, males had lower life expectancy than females. Differences in survival between pods may be caused by a combination of factors that vary across the population's range, including reduced prey availability, contaminants in prey, and human activity. Our modeling approach could be applied to demographic rates for other species and for parameters other than survival, including reproduction, prey selection, movement, and detection probabilities. Conservation Biology ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Experimentally induced anhydrobiosis in the tardigrade Richtersius coronifer: phenotypic factors affecting survival.

PubMed

Jönsson, K Ingemar; Rebecchi, Lorena

2002-11-01

The ability of some animal taxa (e.g., nematodes, rotifers, and tardigrades) to enter an ametabolic (cryptobiotic) state is well known. Nevertheless, the phenotypic factors affecting successful anhydrobiosis have rarely been investigated. We report a laboratory study on the effects of body size, reproductive condition, and energetic condition on anhydrobiotic survival in a population of the eutardigrade Richtersius coronifer. Body size and energetic condition interacted in affecting the probability of survival, while reproductive condition had no effect. Large tardigrades had a lower probability of survival than medium-sized tardigrades and showed a positive response in survival to energetic condition. This suggests that energy constrained the possibility for large tardigrades to enter and to leave anhydrobiosis. As a possible alternative explanation for low survival in the largest specimens we discuss the expression of senescence. In line with the view that processes related to anhydrobiosis are connected with energetic costs we documented a decrease in the size of storage cells over a period of anhydrobiosis, showing for the first time that energy is consumed in the process of anhydrobiosis in tardigrades. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in a developing country.

PubMed

Easton, Joseph C; Gomez, Sergio; Asdahl, Peter H; Conner, J Michael; Fynn, Alcira B; Ruiz, Claudia; Ojha, Rohit P

2016-09-01

Little information is available about survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in developing countries. We aimed to assess survival among high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in La Plata, Argentina. Individuals eligible for our cohort were aged <20 yr when diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma and received cancer-directed therapy including stem cell transplantation at Hospital de Niños Sor Maria Ludovica between February 1999 and February 2015. We estimated overall survival probabilities using an extended Kaplan-Meier approach. Our study population comprised 39 high-risk neuroblastoma patients, of whom 39% were aged >4 yr at diagnosis, 54% were male, and 62% had adrenal neuroblastoma. We observed 18 deaths, and the median survival time of our study population was 1.7 yr. The five-yr overall survival probability was 24% (95% CL: 10%, 41%). In contrast, five-yr survival of high-risk neuroblastoma patients ranges between 23% and 76% in developed countries. Survival among high-risk neuroblastoma patients is generally poor regardless of geographic location, but our results illustrate dramatically worse survival for patients in a developing country. We speculate that the observed survival differences could be attenuated or eliminated with improvements in treatment and supportive care, but addressing these issues will require creative solutions because of resource limitations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Brownian motion in time-dependent logarithmic potential: Exact results for dynamics and first-passage properties.

PubMed

Ryabov, Artem; Berestneva, Ekaterina; Holubec, Viktor

2015-09-21

The paper addresses Brownian motion in the logarithmic potential with time-dependent strength, U(x, t) = g(t)log(x), subject to the absorbing boundary at the origin of coordinates. Such model can represent kinetics of diffusion-controlled reactions of charged molecules or escape of Brownian particles over a time-dependent entropic barrier at the end of a biological pore. We present a simple asymptotic theory which yields the long-time behavior of both the survival probability (first-passage properties) and the moments of the particle position (dynamics). The asymptotic survival probability, i.e., the probability that the particle will not hit the origin before a given time, is a functional of the potential strength. As such, it exhibits a rather varied behavior for different functions g(t). The latter can be grouped into three classes according to the regime of the asymptotic decay of the survival probability. We distinguish 1. the regular (power-law decay), 2. the marginal (power law times a slow function of time), and 3. the regime of enhanced absorption (decay faster than the power law, e.g., exponential). Results of the asymptotic theory show good agreement with numerical simulations.

Cross-species prediction of human survival probabilities for accelerated anthrax vaccine absorbed (AVA) regimens and the potential for vaccine and antibiotic dose sparing.

PubMed

Stark, G V; Sivko, G S; VanRaden, M; Schiffer, J; Taylor, K L; Hewitt, J A; Quinn, C P; Nuzum, E O

2016-12-12

Anthrax vaccine adsorbed (AVA, BioThrax) was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for a post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) indication in adults 18-65years of age. The schedule is three doses administered subcutaneous (SC) at 2-week intervals (0, 2, and 4weeks), in conjunction with a 60-day course of antimicrobials. The Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) developed an animal model to support assessment of a shortened antimicrobial PEP duration following Bacillus anthracis exposure. A nonhuman primate (NHP) study was completed to evaluate the efficacy of a two dose anthrax vaccine absorbed (AVA) schedule (0, 2weeks) aerosol challenged with high levels of B. anthracis spores at week4- the time point at which humans would receive the third vaccination of the approved PEP schedule. Here we use logistic regression models to combine the survival data from the NHP study along with serum anthrax lethal toxin neutralizing activity (TNA) and anti-PA IgG measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) data to perform a cross-species analysis to estimate survival probabilities in vaccinated human populations at this time interval (week4 of the PEP schedule). The bridging analysis demonstrated that high levels of NHP protection also yield high predicted probability of human survival just 2weeks after the second dose of vaccine with the full or half antigen dose regimen. The absolute difference in probability of human survival between the full and half antigen dose was estimated to be at most approximately 20%, indicating that more investigation of the half-antigen dose for vaccine dose sparing strategies may be warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Ryan, Mark R.; Runge, Michael C.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts

2011-01-01

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

[Differential mortality according to region of residence in Benin].

PubMed

Laourou, H M

1995-01-01

"The first mortality tables of Benin elaborated by direct estimation for the whole country deal with relatively different regional realities. It is in this regard that the data, whether it is death from multiround surveys or information about survival of parents, allows one to distinguish between the North (with a higher mortality) and the South (which has a lower mortality). Moreover, this differential study reveals that the level of male adult mortality after 35 years in the South, is well above the national average, probably because of the increase in deaths through violence (road accident or victim of a fire) in this part of Benin....The originality of this study is to have highlighted the mortality differentials at almost all age groups of life...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND ITA) excerpt

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics.

PubMed

Bled, Florent; Belant, Jerrold L; Van Daele, Lawrence J; Svoboda, Nathan; Gustine, David; Hilderbrand, Grant; Barnes, Victor G

2017-11-01

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), using three common data types for bear ( U . spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture-mark-recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations' management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Belant, Jerrold L.; Van Daele, Lawrence J.; Svoboda, Nathan; Gustine, David D.; Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Barnes, Victor G.

2017-01-01

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears (Ursus arctos), using three common data types for bear (U. spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores

PubMed Central

Harmsen, Bart J.; Foster, Rebecca J.; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E.; Silver, Scott C.; Ostro, Linde E. T.; Kelly, Marcella J.; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002–2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of ‘residents’ consistently present and a fluctuating layer of ‘transients’. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable ‘transient’ male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations. PMID:28658274

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Zúñiga-Vega, J Jaime; Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby ( Sula nebouxii ), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments.

Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Grace

2013-07-01

J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

Epidemiological survey of X-linked bulbar and spinal muscular atrophy, or Kennedy disease, in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy.

PubMed

Guidetti, D; Sabadini, R; Ferlini, A; Torrente, I

2001-01-01

Commencing with the work carried out during the epidemiological survey of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the period 1980-1992 and the pathology follow-up, we carried out a perspective incidence, prevalence and mortality survey of X-linked bulbar and spinal muscular atrophy (X-BSMA) in the province of Reggio Emilia in Northern Italy. Based on 11 patients (eight familial and three sporadic cases), the mean incidence per year for the period 1980 through 1997, as evaluated at the onset of symptoms, was 0.09 cases/100,000 for the total population and 0.19 cases/100,000 for the male population. On December 31, 1997, the prevalence rate was 1.6/100,000 for the total population and 3.3/100,000 for the male population. In the 18-year period of 1980-1997, the average yearly mortality rate was: 0.03 cases/100,000 per year for the total population and 0.06 cases/ 100,000 for the male population. The average age at onset was 44.8 +/- 10.1, and the average survival period was 27.3 +/- 2.3 years. The average age of the prevalence day was 58.9 +/- 14.9, and the average age at death was 71.3 +/- 4.7 years. Whereas the incidence rate of X-BSMA in the province of Reggio Emilia is 16 times lower that of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), the incidence rate of progressive bulbar palsy in the male population is only slightly higher than X-BSMA; and the prevalence rate of ALS for males is two times the prevalence rate for X-BSMA, with overlapping of confidence intervals. X-BSMA is a rare disease, which is probably under-diagnosed, but due to the long survival period of this disease its frequency is not negligible. Because of the presence of sporadic cases or non-evident familial cases, it is appropriate to consider this diagnostic possibility in making a diagnosis of ALS in patients in whom lower motor neuron dysfunction or bulbar onset predominates.

Smart Extraction and Analysis System for Clinical Research.

PubMed

Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Khan, Wajahat Ali; Ali, Taqdir; Jamshed, Arif; Lee, Sungyoung

2017-05-01

With the increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs), there is a growing need to expand the utilization of EHR data to support clinical research. The key challenge in achieving this goal is the unavailability of smart systems and methods to overcome the issue of data preparation, structuring, and sharing for smooth clinical research. We developed a robust analysis system called the smart extraction and analysis system (SEAS) that consists of two subsystems: (1) the information extraction system (IES), for extracting information from clinical documents, and (2) the survival analysis system (SAS), for a descriptive and predictive analysis to compile the survival statistics and predict the future chance of survivability. The IES subsystem is based on a novel permutation-based pattern recognition method that extracts information from unstructured clinical documents. Similarly, the SAS subsystem is based on a classification and regression tree (CART)-based prediction model for survival analysis. SEAS is evaluated and validated on a real-world case study of head and neck cancer. The overall information extraction accuracy of the system for semistructured text is recorded at 99%, while that for unstructured text is 97%. Furthermore, the automated, unstructured information extraction has reduced the average time spent on manual data entry by 75%, without compromising the accuracy of the system. Moreover, around 88% of patients are found in a terminal or dead state for the highest clinical stage of disease (level IV). Similarly, there is an ∼36% probability of a patient being alive if at least one of the lifestyle risk factors was positive. We presented our work on the development of SEAS to replace costly and time-consuming manual methods with smart automatic extraction of information and survival prediction methods. SEAS has reduced the time and energy of human resources spent unnecessarily on manual tasks.

Combined Spatio-Temporal Impacts of Climate and Longline Fisheries on the Survival of a Trans-Equatorial Marine Migrant

PubMed Central

Ramos, Raül; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Nevoux, Marie; Mougin, Jean-Louis; Dias, Maria Peixe; Catry, Paulo

2012-01-01

Predicting the impact of human activities and their derivable consequences, such as global warming or direct wildlife mortality, is increasingly relevant in our changing world. Due to their particular life history traits, long-lived migrants are amongst the most endangered and sensitive group of animals to these harming effects. Our ability to identify and quantify such anthropogenic threats in both breeding and wintering grounds is, therefore, of key importance in the field of conservation biology. Using long-term capture-recapture data (34 years, 4557 individuals) and year-round tracking data (4 years, 100 individuals) of a trans-equatorial migrant, the Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), we investigated the impact of longline fisheries and climatic variables in both breeding and wintering areas on the most important demographic trait of this seabird, i.e. adult survival. Annual adult survival probability was estimated at 0.914±0.022 on average, declining throughout 1978–1999 but recovering during the last decade (2005–2011). Our results suggest that both the incidental bycatch associated with longline fisheries and high sea surface temperatures (indirectly linked to food availability; SST) increased mortality rates during the long breeding season (March-October). Shearwater survival was also negatively affected during the short non-breeding season (December-February) by positive episodes of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Indirect negative effects of climate at both breeding (SST) and wintering grounds (SOI) had a greater impact on survival than longliner activity, and indeed these climatic factors are those which are expected to present more unfavourable trends in the future. Our work underlines the importance of considering both breeding and wintering habitats as well as precise schedules/phenology when assessing the global role of the local impacts on the dynamics of migratory species. PMID:22815833

Demographic consequences of migratory stopover: linking red knot survival to horseshoe crab spawning abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Lyons, James E.; Smith, David; Kalasz, Kevin S.; Niles, Lawrence J.; Dey, Amanda D.; Clark, Nigel A.; Atkinson, Philip W.; Minton, Clive D.T.; Kendall, William

2011-01-01

Understanding how events during one period of the annual cycle carry over to affect survival and other fitness components in other periods is essential to understanding migratory bird demography and conservation needs. Previous research has suggested that western Atlantic red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations are greatly affected by horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) egg availability at Delaware Bay stopover sites during their spring northward migration. We present a mass-based multistate, capturerecapture/resighting model linking (1) red knot stopover mass gain to horseshoe crab spawning abundance and (2) subsequent apparent annual survival to mass state at the time of departure from the Delaware Bay stopover area. The model and analysis use capture-recapture/resighting data with over 16,000 individual captures and 13,000 resightings collected in Delaware Bay over a 12 year period from 1997–2008, and the results are used to evaluate the central management hypothesis that red knot populations can be influenced by horseshoe crab harvest regulations as part of a larger adaptive management effort. Model selection statistics showed support for a positive relationship between horseshoe crab spawning abundance during the stopover and the probability of red knots gaining mass (parameter coefficient from the top model b = 1.71, SE = 0.46). Our analyses also supported the link between red knot mass and apparent annual survival, although average estimates for the two mass classes differed only slightly. The addition of arctic snow depth as a covariate influencing apparent survival improved the fit of the data to the models (parameter coefficient from the top model b = 0.50, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate that managing horseshoe crab resources in the Delaware Bay has the potential to improve red knot population status.

Treatment of Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma (≤2 cm) in the Caudate Lobe with Sequential Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization and Radiofrequency Ablation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyun, Dongho; Cho, Sung Ki, E-mail: sungkismc.cho@samsung.com; Shin, Sung Wook

2016-07-15

PurposeTo evaluate technical feasibility and treatment results of sequential transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) and cone-beam computed tomography-guided percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (CBCT-RFA) for small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the caudate lobe.Materials and MethodsInstitutional review board approved this retrospective study. Radiologic database was searched for the patients referred to perform TACE and CBCT-RFA for small caudate HCCs (≤2 cm) between February 2009 and February 2014. A total of 14 patients (12 men and 2 women, mean age; 61.3 years) were included. Percutaneous ultrasonography-guided RFA (pUS-RFA) and surgery were infeasible due to poor conspicuity, inconspicuity or no safe electrode pathway, and poor hepatic reserve. Proceduralmore » success (completion of both TACE and CBCT-RFA), technique efficacy (absence of tumor enhancement at 1 month after treatment), and complication were evaluated. Treatment results including local tumor progression (LTP), intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed.ResultsProcedural success and technique efficacy rates were 78.6 % (11/14) and 90.9 % (10/11), respectively. Average follow-up period was 45.3 months (range, 13.4–64.6 months). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year LTP probabilities were 0, 12.5, and 12.5 %, respectively. IDR occurred in seven patients (63.6 %, 7/11). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year PFS probabilities were 81.8, 51.9, and 26 %, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS probabilities were 100, 80.8, and 80.8 %, respectively.ConclusionCombination of TACE and CBCT-RFA seems feasible for small HCC in the caudate lobe not amenable to pUS-RFA and effective in local tumor control.« less

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

PubMed

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park's population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions.

Clinical features, outcome, and prognostic factors for survival and evolution to multiple myeloma of solitary plasmacytomas: a report of the Greek myeloma study group in 97 patients.

PubMed

Katodritou, Eirini; Terpos, Evangelos; Symeonidis, Argiris S; Pouli, Anastasia; Kelaidi, Charikleia; Kyrtsonis, Marie-Christine; Kotsopoulou, Maria; Delimpasi, Sosana; Christoforidou, Anna; Giannakoulas, Nikolaos; Viniou, Nora-Athina; Stefanoudaki, Ekaterini; Hadjiaggelidou, Christina; Christoulas, Dimitrios; Verrou, Evgenia; Gastari, Vassiliki; Papadaki, Sofia; Polychronidou, Genovefa; Papadopoulou, Athina; Giannopoulou, Evlambia; Kastritis, Efstathios; Kouraklis, Alexandra; Konstantinidou, Pavlina; Anagnostopoulos, Achilles; Zervas, Konstantinos; Dimopoulos, Meletios A

2014-08-01

Solitary plasmacytoma (SP) is a rare plasma cell dyscrasia characterized by the presence of bone or extramedullary plasma cell tumors. The treatment of choice is local radiotherapy (R/T) ± surgical excision. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy (C/T) or novel agents (NA) is uncertain. Data related to prognostic factors are inconclusive. Herein, we describe the clinical features, survival and prognosis of 97 consecutive patients, 65 with bone SP (SBP), and 32 with extramedullary SP (SEP), diagnosed and treated in 12 Greek Myeloma Centers. Objective response rate (≥PR) and complete response (CR) was 91.8% and 61.9%, respectively, and did not differ between the 2 groups. Overall, 38 patients relapsed or progressed to multiple myeloma (MM). After a median follow-up of 60 months, 5 and 10-year overall survival (OS) probability was 92% and 89% in SEP and 86% and 69% in SBP, respectively (P = 0.2). The 5- and 10-year MM-free survival (MMFS) probability was 90% and 70% for patients with SEP vs. 59% and 50% for patients with SBP, respectively (P = 0.054). Overall, the 5- and 10-year OS probability, plasmacytoma relapse-free survival (PRFS), progression-free survival and MMFS was 84% and 78%, 72% and 58%, 58% and 43%, and 70% and 59%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, prolonged PRFS and young age were positive predictors of OS. Achievement of CR was the only positive predictor of PRFS. Immunoparesis was the only negative predictor of progression to MM. The addition of C/T or NA-based treatment increased toxicity without offering any survival advantage over R/T. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Clive R; New, Leslie; Fairley, E.J.; Hindell, M.A.; Burton, H.R.

2015-01-01

The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

PubMed

Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

2016-08-01

A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0. © The Author(s) 2013.

Mean Recency Period for Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence with the BED-Capture EIA and Bio-Rad Avidity in Persons Diagnosed in the United States with Subtype B.

PubMed

Hanson, Debra L; Song, Ruiguang; Masciotra, Silvina; Hernandez, Angela; Dobbs, Trudy L; Parekh, Bharat S; Owen, S Michele; Green, Timothy A

2016-01-01

HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED) and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI) assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0) for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9) for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States.

Adaptive random walks on the class of Web graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadić, B.

2001-09-01

We study random walk with adaptive move strategies on a class of directed graphs with variable wiring diagram. The graphs are grown from the evolution rules compatible with the dynamics of the world-wide Web [B. Tadić, Physica A 293, 273 (2001)], and are characterized by a pair of power-law distributions of out- and in-degree for each value of the parameter β, which measures the degree of rewiring in the graph. The walker adapts its move strategy according to locally available information both on out-degree of the visited node and in-degree of target node. A standard random walk, on the other hand, uses the out-degree only. We compute the distribution of connected subgraphs visited by an ensemble of walkers, the average access time and survival probability of the walks. We discuss these properties of the walk dynamics relative to the changes in the global graph structure when the control parameter β is varied. For β≥ 3, corresponding to the world-wide Web, the access time of the walk to a given level of hierarchy on the graph is much shorter compared to the standard random walk on the same graph. By reducing the amount of rewiring towards rigidity limit β↦βc≲ 0.1, corresponding to the range of naturally occurring biochemical networks, the survival probability of adaptive and standard random walk become increasingly similar. The adaptive random walk can be used as an efficient message-passing algorithm on this class of graphs for large degree of rewiring.

Escape driven by alpha-stable white noises.

PubMed

Dybiec, B; Gudowska-Nowak, E; Hänggi, P

2007-02-01

We explore the archetype problem of an escape dynamics occurring in a symmetric double well potential when the Brownian particle is driven by white Lévy noise in a dynamical regime where inertial effects can safely be neglected. The behavior of escaping trajectories from one well to another is investigated by pointing to the special character that underpins the noise-induced discontinuity which is caused by the generalized Brownian paths that jump beyond the barrier location without actually hitting it. This fact implies that the boundary conditions for the mean first passage time (MFPT) are no longer determined by the well-known local boundary conditions that characterize the case with normal diffusion. By numerically implementing properly the set up boundary conditions, we investigate the survival probability and the average escape time as a function of the corresponding Lévy white noise parameters. Depending on the value of the skewness beta of the Lévy noise, the escape can either become enhanced or suppressed: a negative asymmetry parameter beta typically yields a decrease for the escape rate while the rate itself depicts a non-monotonic behavior as a function of the stability index alpha that characterizes the jump length distribution of Lévy noise, exhibiting a marked discontinuity at alpha=1. We find that the typical factor of 2 that characterizes for normal diffusion the ratio between the MFPT for well-bottom-to-well-bottom and well-bottom-to-barrier-top no longer holds true. For sufficiently high barriers the survival probabilities assume an exponential behavior versus time. Distinct non-exponential deviations occur, however, for low barrier heights.

Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, S.; Gimenez, O.; Flint, E.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; Lebreton, J.D.

2007-01-01

1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture?recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997?2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross? survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications. The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross population was supported by the combination of a low estimate of adult survival for the study period, and a significant relationship between adult survival and a synthetic measure of fishing effort. This study highlights the sensitivity of the black-footed albatross to commercial longline fishing, and should exhort fishery management authorities to find adequate seabirds avoidance methods and to encourage their employment.

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model (Markov) that needs the parameterization of transition probabilities, and only has summary KM plots available.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Estimation of Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus) survival, recapture, and recovery rate during and after a disease outbreak

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Dodd, C.K.

2003-01-01

We estimated survivorship, recapture probabilities and recovery rates in a threatened population of Flattened Musk Turtles (Sternotherus depressus) through a disease outbreak in Alabama in 1985. We evaluated a set of models for the demographic effects of disease by analyzing recaptures and recoveries simultaneously. Multiple-model inference suggested survival was temporally dynamic, whereas recapture probability was sex- and age-specifc. Biweekly survivorship declined from 98-99% before to 82-88% during the outbreak. Live recapture was twice as likely for male turtles relative to juveniles or females, whereas dead recoveries varied only slightly by sex and age. Our results suggest modest reduction in survival over a relatively short time period may severely affect population status.

The effects of solar Reimers η on the final destinies of Venus, the Earth, and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianpo; Lin, Ling; Bai, Chunyan; Liu, Jinzhong

2016-04-01

Our Sun will lose sizable mass and expand enormously when it evolves to the red giant branch phase and the asymptotic giant branch phase. The loss of solar mass will push a planet outward. On the contrary, solar expansion will enhance tidal effects, and tidal force will drive a planet inward. Will our Sun finally engulf Venus, the Earth, and Mars? In the literature, one can find a large number of studies with different points of view. A key factor is that we do not know how much mass the Sun will lose at the late stages. The Reimers η can describe the efficiency of stellar mass-loss and greatly affect solar mass and solar radius at the late stages. In this work, we study how the final destinies of Venus, the Earth, and Mars can be depending on Reimers η chosen. In our calculation, the Reimers η varies from 0.00 to 0.75, with the minimum interval 0.0025. Our results show that Venus will be engulfed by the Sun and Mars will most probably survive finally. The fate of the Earth is uncertain. The Earth will finally be engulfed by the Sun while η <0.4600, and it will finally survive while η ≥ 0.4600. New observations indicate that the average Reimers η for solar-like stars is 0.477. This implies that Earth may survive finally.

[Survival analysis of patients with pneumoconiosis from 1956 to 2010 in Changsha].

PubMed

Xue, Jing; Chen, Lizhang

2012-01-01

To investigate the survival rate and life expectancy of patients with pneumoconiosis and influence factors in Changsha from 1956 to 2010. A total of 3685 patients with pneumoconiosis were diagnosed and reported from 1956 to 2010 in Changsha. The fatality rate and life expectancy were analyzed by life table and the cause of death was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model. The death rate increased obviously with age. Age and accumulation death probability showed linearity (Ŷ=1.271+0.041X, r=0.989). The life expectancy was 60.12 years. The first cause of death was pulmonary tuberculosis in patients with pneumoconiosis. Ruling out the influence of pulmonary tuberculosis, pneumoconiosis, and lung source heart disease, the life expectancy of patients with pneumoconiosis averagely extended 0.83, 0.99, and 0.02 years. The death rate of pneumoconiosis-tuberculosis had significant difference with that of the pneumoconiosisnontuberculosis (P<0.01). Cox regression analysis revealed that the main risk factors for the survival of patients with pneumoconiosis included type of work (smashing worker), complication with tuberculosis, type of pneumoconiosis (silicosis). The death hazard ratio or relative risk caused by them was 1.927, 1.749, and 1.609, respectively. Prevention of pneumoconiosis should focus on smashing workers in Changsha, while its the treatment primarily attaches importance to complication of tuberculosis and lung infection.

Polypropylene vs silicone Ahmed valve with adjunctive mitomycin C in paediatric age group: a prospective controlled study

PubMed Central

El Sayed, Y; Awadein, A

2013-01-01

Purpose To compare the results of silicone and polypropylene Ahmed glaucoma valves (AGV) implanted during the first 10 years of life. Methods A prospective study was performed on 50 eyes of 33 patients with paediatric glaucoma. Eyes were matched to either polypropylene or silicone AGV. In eyes with bilateral glaucoma, one eye was implanted with polypropylene and the other eye was implanted with silicone AGV. Results Fifty eyes of 33 children were reviewed. Twenty five eyes received a polypropylene valve, and 25 eyes received a silicone valve. Eyes implanted with silicone valves achieved a significantly lower intraocular pressure (IOP) compared with the polypropylene group at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years postoperatively. The average survival time was significantly longer (P=0.001 by the log-rank test) for the silicone group than for the polypropylene group and the cumulative probability of survival by the log-rank test at the end of the second year was 80% (SE: 8.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 64–96%) in the silicone group and 56% (SE: 9.8, 95% CI: 40–90%) in the polypropylene group. The difference in the number of postoperative interventions and complications between both groups was statistically insignificant. Conclusion Silicone AGVs can achieve better IOP control, and longer survival with less antiglaucoma drops compared with polypropylene valves in children younger than 10 years. PMID:23579403

Spatial Metrics of Tumour Vascular Organisation Predict Radiation Efficacy in a Computational Model

PubMed Central

Scott, Jacob G.

2016-01-01

Intratumoural heterogeneity is known to contribute to poor therapeutic response. Variations in oxygen tension in particular have been correlated with changes in radiation response in vitro and at the clinical scale with overall survival. Heterogeneity at the microscopic scale in tumour blood vessel architecture has been described, and is one source of the underlying variations in oxygen tension. We seek to determine whether histologic scale measures of the erratic distribution of blood vessels within a tumour can be used to predict differing radiation response. Using a two-dimensional hybrid cellular automaton model of tumour growth, we evaluate the effect of vessel distribution on cell survival outcomes of simulated radiation therapy. Using the standard equations for the oxygen enhancement ratio for cell survival probability under differing oxygen tensions, we calculate average radiation effect over a range of different vessel densities and organisations. We go on to quantify the vessel distribution heterogeneity and measure spatial organization using Ripley’s L function, a measure designed to detect deviations from complete spatial randomness. We find that under differing regimes of vessel density the correlation coefficient between the measure of spatial organization and radiation effect changes sign. This provides not only a useful way to understand the differences seen in radiation effect for tissues based on vessel architecture, but also an alternate explanation for the vessel normalization hypothesis. PMID:26800503

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

2016-10-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

Combination Therapy of Radiofrequency Ablation and Transarterial Chemoembolization for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Tang, Chengwu; Shen, Jian; Feng, Wenming; Bao, Ying; Dong, Xiaogang; Dai, Yi; Zheng, Yinyuan; Zhang, Jianping

2016-01-01

Abstract The treatment efficacy of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still not promising. This study aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) combined with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for unresectable HCC with a single treatment. Between June 2009 and June 2012, 132 patients who were diagnosed with unresectable HCC and accepted nonsurgical treatments in our center were enrolled in this retrospective study. On the basis of treatment modality, they were allocated to 3 groups: 49 patients accepted RFA (RFA group); 43 patients accepted TACE (TACE group); and 40 patients accepted RFA following TACE (combination group). Clinical data including complications, treatment success rate, hospitalization costs, intrahepatic recurrence-free survival, overall survival, and factors influencing survival were retrospectively analyzed. Patient characteristics between these groups showed no significant difference. Treatment success was achieved in all patients of 3 groups. The combination group had a significantly higher total hospitalization cost to treatment than the TACE group (63,708.14 ± 9193.81 Chinese yuan vs 37,534.88 ± 6802.84 Chinese yuan; P = 0.0000). All complications were controllable and no permanent adverse sequelae or procedure-related deaths were observed. The 3-year intrahepatic recurrence-free survival probability was significantly better in the combination group than in the TACE group (42.50% vs 20.93%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.5105; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3022–0.8625; P = 0.0094) or the RFA group (42.50% vs 22.45%; HR, 0.5233; 95% CI, 0.3149–0.8697; P = 0.0111).The 3-year overall survival probability was significantly better in the combination group than in the TACE group (45.00% vs 26.53%; HR, 0.5069; 95% CI, 0.2936–0.8752; P = 0.0100) or the RFA group (45.00% vs 27.91%; HR, 0.4913; 95% CI, 0.2928–0.8246; P = 0.0054). Main tumor size, number of tumors, and treatment modality were demonstrated to be important factors associated with 3-year intrahepatic recurrence-free survival probability and overall survival probability (P < 0.05) by univariate and multivariate analyses. Combination therapy of RFA and TACE was superior to TACE alone or RFA alone in improving survival for patients with unresectable HCC. PMID:27196501

Movement patterns and study area boundaries: Influences on survival estimation in capture-mark-recapture studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horton, G.E.; Letcher, B.H.

2008-01-01

The inability to account for the availability of individuals in the study area during capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies and the resultant confounding of parameter estimates can make correct interpretation of CMR model parameter estimates difficult. Although important advances based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model have resulted in estimators of true survival that work by unconfounding either death or recapture probability from availability for capture in the study area, these methods rely on the researcher's ability to select a method that is correctly matched to emigration patterns in the population. If incorrect assumptions regarding site fidelity (non-movement) are made, it may be difficult or impossible as well as costly to change the study design once the incorrect assumption is discovered. Subtleties in characteristics of movement (e.g. life history-dependent emigration, nomads vs territory holders) can lead to mixtures in the probability of being available for capture among members of the same population. The result of these mixtures may be only a partial unconfounding of emigration from other CMR model parameters. Biologically-based differences in individual movement can combine with constraints on study design to further complicate the problem. Because of the intricacies of movement and its interaction with other parameters in CMR models, quantification of and solutions to these problems are needed. Based on our work with stream-dwelling populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, we used a simulation approach to evaluate existing CMR models under various mixtures of movement probabilities. The Barker joint data model provided unbiased estimates of true survival under all conditions tested. The CJS and robust design models provided similarly unbiased estimates of true survival but only when emigration information could be incorporated directly into individual encounter histories. For the robust design model, Markovian emigration (future availability for capture depends on an individual's current location) was a difficult emigration pattern to detect unless survival and especially recapture probability were high. Additionally, when local movement was high relative to study area boundaries and movement became more diffuse (e.g. a random walk), local movement and permanent emigration were difficult to distinguish and had consequences for correctly interpreting the survival parameter being estimated (apparent survival vs true survival). ?? 2008 The Authors.

Lesser scaup breeding probability and female survival on the yukon flats, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, K.H.; Lindberg, M.S.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bertram, M.R.

2009-01-01

Information on the ecology of waterfowl breeding in the boreal forest is lacking, despite the boreal region's importance to continental waterfowl populations and to duck species that are currently declining, such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). We estimated breeding probability and breeding season survival of female lesser scaup on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in 2005 and 2006. We captured and marked 93 lesser scaup with radiotransmitters during prelaying and nesting periods. Although all marked lesser scaup females were paired throughout prelaying and incubation periods, we estimated breeding probability over both years as 0.12 (SE = 0.05, n = 67) using telemetry. Proportion of lesser scaup females undergoing rapid follicle growth at capture in 2006 was 0.46 (SE = 0.11, n = 37), based on concentration of yolk precursors in blood plasma. By combining methods based on telemetry, yolk precursors, and postovulatory follicles, we estimated maximum breeding probability as 0.68 (SE = 0.08, n = 37) in 2006. Notably, breeding probability was positively related to female body mass. Survival of female lesser scaup during the nesting and brood-rearing periods was 0.92 (SE = 0.05) in 2005 and 0.86 (SE = 0.08) in 2006. Our results suggest that breeding probability is lower than expected for lesser scaup. In addition, the implicit assumption of continental duck-monitoring programs that all paired females attempt to breed should be reevaluated. Recruitment estimates based on annual breeding-pair surveys may overestimate productivity of scaup pairs in the boreal forest. ?? The Wildlife Society.

Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

2014-01-01

Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are susceptible to declines now and into the future. Increases in environmental variability, deterministic changes in habitat conditions or stressors, or a single catastrophic event could all have immediately deleterious impacts on the long-term growth trajectory of these populations.

Quantum Dynamical Applications of Salem's Theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damanik, David; Del Rio, Rafael

2009-07-01

We consider the survival probability of a state that evolves according to the Schrödinger dynamics generated by a self-adjoint operator H. We deduce from a classical result of Salem that upper bounds for the Hausdorff dimension of a set supporting the spectral measure associated with the initial state imply lower bounds on a subsequence of time scales for the survival probability. This general phenomenon is illustrated with applications to the Fibonacci operator and the critical almost Mathieu operator. In particular, this gives the first quantitative dynamical bound for the critical almost Mathieu operator.

Survival rate of AIDS disease and mortality in HIV-infected patients: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Poorolajal, J; Hooshmand, E; Mahjub, H; Esmailnasab, N; Jenabi, E

2016-10-01

The life expectancy of patients with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) reported by several epidemiological studies is inconsistent. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the survival rate from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset and from AIDS onset to death. The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus were searched to February 2016. In addition, the reference lists of included studies were checked to identify further references, and the database of the International AIDS Society was also searched. Cohort studies addressing the survival rate in patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS were included in this meta-analysis. The outcomes of interest were the survival rate of patients diagnosed with HIV progressing to AIDS, and the survival rate of patients with AIDS dying from AIDS-related causes with or without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The survival rate (P) was estimated with 95% confidence intervals based on random-effects models. In total, 27,862 references were identified, and 57 studies involving 294,662 participants were included in this meta-analysis. Two, 4-, 6-, 8-, 10- and 12-year survival probabilities of progression from HIV diagnosis to AIDS onset were estimated to be 82%, 72%, 64%, 57%, 26% and 19%, respectively. Two, 4-, 6-, 8- and 10-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who received HAART were estimated to be 87%, 86%, 78%, 78%, and 61%, respectively, and 2-, 4- and 6-year survival probabilities of progression from AIDS onset to AIDS-related death in patients who did not receive HAART were estimated to be 48%, 26% and 18%, respectively. Evidence of considerable heterogeneity was found. The majority of the studies had a moderate to high risk of bias. The majority of HIV-positive patients progress to AIDS within the first decade of diagnosis. Most patients who receive HAART will survive for >10 years after the onset of AIDS, whereas the majority of the patients who do not receive HAART die within 2 years of the onset of AIDS. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatal Wounding Pattern and Causes of Potentially Preventable Death Following the Pulse Night Club Shooting Event.

PubMed

Smith, E Reed; Shapiro, Geoff; Sarani, Babak

2018-04-25

Mortality following shooting is related to time to provision of initial and definitive care. An understanding of the wounding pattern, opportunities for rescue, and incidence of possibly preventable death is needed to achieve the goal of zero preventable deaths following trauma. A retrospective study of autopsy reports for all victims involved in the Pulse Nightclub Shooting was performed. The site of injury, probable site of fatal injury, and presence of potentially survivable injury (defined as survival if prehospital care is provided within 10 minutes and trauma center care within 60 minutes of injury) was determined independently by each author. Wounds were considered fatal if they involved penetration of the heart, injury to any non-extremity major blood vessel, or bihemispheric, mid-brain, or brainstem injury. There were an average of 6.9 wounds per patient. Ninety percent had a gunshot to an extremity, 78% to the chest, 47% to the abdomen/pelvis, and 39% to the head. Sixteen patients (32%) had potentially survivable wounds, 9 (56%) of whom had torso injuries. Four patients had extremity injuries, 2 involved femoral vessels and 2 involved the axilla. No patients had documented tourniquets or wound packing prior to arrival to the hospital. One patient had an isolated C6 injury and 2 victims had unihemispheric gunshots to the head. A comprehensive strategy starting with civilian providers to provide care at the point of wounding along with a coordinated public safety approach to rapidly evacuate the wounded may increase survival in future events.

Age at Vaccination May Influence Response to Sylvatic Plague Vaccine (SPV) in Gunnison's Prairie Dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni).

PubMed

Rocke, Tonie E; Tripp, Dan; Lorenzsonn, Faye; Falendysz, Elizabeth; Smith, Susan; Williamson, Judy; Abbott, Rachel

2015-06-01

Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) have been considered at greater risk from Yersinia pestis (plague) infection in the montane portion of their range compared to populations at lower elevations, possibly due to factors related to flea transmission of the bacteria or greater host susceptibility. To test the latter hypothesis and determine whether vaccination against plague with an oral sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) improved survival, we captured prairie dogs from a C. g. gunnisoni or "montane" population and a C. g. zuniensis or "prairie" population for vaccine efficacy and challenge studies. No differences (P = 0.63) were found in plague susceptibility in non-vaccinated animals between these two populations; however, vaccinates from the prairie population survived plague challenge at significantly higher rates (P < 0.01) than those from the montane population. Upon further analysis, we determined that response to immunization was most likely associated with differences in age, as the prairie group was much younger on average than the montane group. Vaccinates that were juveniles or young adults survived plague challenge at a much higher rate than adults (P < 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively), but no difference (P = 0.83) was detected in survival rates between control animals of different ages. These results suggest that host susceptibility is probably not related to the assumed greater risk from plague in the C. g. gunnisoni or "montane" populations of Gunnison's prairie dogs, and that SPV could be a useful plague management tool for this species, particularly if targeted at younger cohorts.

Societal preferences in the treatment of pediatric medulloblastoma: Balancing risk of death and quality of life.

PubMed

Khakban, Amir; Mohammadi, Tima; Lynd, Larry D; Mabbott, Don; Bouffet, Eric; Gastonguay, Louise; Zafari, Zafar; Malkin, David; Taylor, Michael; Marra, Carlo A

2017-06-01

Medulloblastoma is the most prevalent childhood brain cancer. Children with medulloblastoma typically receive a combination of surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy. The survival rate is high but survivors often have sequelae from radiotherapy of the entire developing brain and spinal cord. Ongoing genetic studies have suggested that decreasing the dose of radiation might be possible among children with favorable molecular variants; however, this may result in an increased disease recurrence. As such, there is a need to investigate the nature of trade-offs that individuals are willing to make regarding the treatment of medulloblastoma. We used best-worst scaling to estimate the importance of attributes affecting the general public's decision making around the treatment of medulloblastoma. After conducting focus groups, we selected three relevant attributes: (1) the accuracy of the genetic test; (2) the probability of serious adverse effects of the treatment(s); and (3) the survival rate. Using the paired method, we applied a conditional logit model to estimate preferences. In total, 3,006 respondents (51.3% female) with an average age of 43 years answered the questionnaires. All coefficients were statistically significantly different from zero and the attribute levels of adverse effects and the survival rate had the most impact on individuals' stated decision making. Overall, respondents showed high sensitivity to children experiencing disability particularly in the setting of a good prognosis. However, among children with poor prognostic molecular variants, participants showed tolerance about having a child with mild and partial disability compared to a low rate of survival. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of climate change on the survival of larval cod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiansen, T.; Stock, C. A.; Drinkwater, K. F.; Curchitser, E. N.

2011-12-01

Understanding how climate change may impact important commercial fisheries is critical for developing sustainable fisheries management strategies. In this study, we used simulations from an Earth System Model (NOAA GFDL ESM2.1) coupled with an individual-based model (IBM) for larval fish to provide a first assessment of the potential importance of climate-change driven changes in primary productivity and temperature on cod recruitment in the North Atlantic to the year 2100. ESM model output was averaged for 5 regions, each with an area of 5x5 on a latitude-longitude grid, and representing the geographic boundaries of the current cod range. The physical and environmental data were incorporated into a mechanistic IBM used to simulate the critical early phases in the life of larval fish (e.g. cod) in a changing environment. Large phytoplankton production was predicted to decrease in most regions, thereby lowering the number of meso-zooplankton in the water column. Meso-zooplankton is the most important prey item for larval cod and a reduction in their numbers have strong impacts on larval cod survival. The combination of lowered prey abundance with increased energy requirement for growth and metabolism through increased temperature had a negative impact on cod recruitment in all modeled regions of the North Atlantic. The probability of survival past the larval stages was reduced with 20-30% at all five spawning grounds by the year 2100. Together, these results suggest climate change could have significant impacts on the survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic.

The randomized benchmarking number is not what you think it is

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Blume-Kohout, Robin; Sarovar, Mohan; Young, Kevin

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is a widely used technique for characterizing a gate set, whereby random sequences of gates are used to probe the average behavior of the gate set. The gates are chosen to ideally compose to the identity, and the rate of decay in the survival probability of an initial state with increasing length sequences is extracted from a set of experiments - this is the `RB number'. For reasonably well-behaved noise and particular gate sets, it has been claimed that the RB number is a reliable estimate of the average gate fidelity (AGF) of each noisy gate to the ideal target unitary, averaged over all gates in the set. Contrary to this widely held view, we show that this is not the case. We show that there are physically relevant situations, in which RB was thought to be provably reliable, where the RB number is many orders of magnitude away from the AGF. These results have important implications for interpreting the RB protocol, and immediate consequences for many advanced RB techniques. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird.

PubMed

Genovart, Meritxell; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Igual, Jose M; Pradel, Roger; Forero, Manuela G; Oro, Daniel

2013-01-01

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Association of multiple ischemic strokes with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients: an application of multistate model to determine transition probabilities in a retrospective observational cohort.

PubMed

Wetmore, James B; Mahnken, Jonathan D; Phadnis, Milind A

2016-09-21

Little is known about the effect of multiple, or subsequent, ischemic strokes in patients receiving hemodialysis. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of incident hemodialysis patients with Medicare coverage who had experienced a first ischemic stroke. Factors associated with either a subsequent ischemic stroke or death following a first new stroke were modeled. A multistate model with Cox proportional hazards was used to predict transition probabilities from first ischemic stroke to either subsequent stroke or to death, and the demographic and clinical factors associated with the respective transition probabilities were determined. Effect of a subsequent ischemic stroke on survival was quantified. Overall, 12,054 individuals (mean age 69.7 years, 41.3 % male, 53.0 % Caucasian and 34.0 % African-American) experienced a first new ischemic stroke. Female sex was associated with an increased risk of having a subsequent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio 1.37, 95 % confidence intervals 1.20 - 1.56, P < 0.0001); African-Americans, as compared to Caucasians, had lower likelihood of dying after a first new ischemic stroke (0.81, 0.77 - 0.85, P < 0.0001). A subsequent stroke trended towards having a higher likelihood of transitioning to death compared to a first new ischemic stroke on dialysis (1.72, 0.96 - 3.09, P = 0.071). When a subsequent ischemic stroke occurs at 24 months, probability of survival dropped >15 %, in absolute terms, from 0.254 to 0.096, with substantial drops observed at subsequent time points such that the probability of survival was more than halved. Likelihood of subsequent ischemic stroke and of survival in hemodialysis patients appears to vary by sex and race: females are more likely than males to experience a subsequent ischemic stroke, and Caucasians are more likely than African-Americans to die after a first new ischemic stroke. The risk of a transitioning to a subsequent stroke (after having had a first) increases until about 1 year, then decreases. Subsequent strokes are associated with decreased probability of survival, an effect which increases as time since first stroke elapses. This information may be of assistance to clinicians when counseling hemodialysis patients about the implications of recurrent ischemic stroke.

Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.

2004-01-01

Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting.Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted), we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used.In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR) models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted) and Cypripedium reginae(Kéry & Gregg, submitted) in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a total of 620 marked ramets over 10 years, and for Cypripedium, two populations with 98 and 258 marked ramets over 11 years. We chose the ramet (= single stem or shoot) as the demographic unit of our study since there was no way distinguishing among genets (genet = genetical individual, i.e., the “individual” that animal ecologists are mostly concerned with). This will introduce some non–independence into the data, which can nevertheless be dealt with easily by correcting variances for overdispersion. Using ramets instead of genets has the further advantage that individuals can be assigned to a state such as flowering or vegetative in an unambiguous manner. This is not possible when genets are the demographic units. In all three populations, auxiliary data was available to show that detection probability of aboveground plants was m 0.995We fitted multistate models in program MARK by specifying three states (D, V, F), even though the dormant state D does not occur in the encounter histories. Detection probability is fixed at 1 for the vegetative (V) and the flowering state (F) and at zero for the dormant state (D). Rates of survival and of state transitions as well as slopes of covariate relationships can be estimated and LRT or the AIC machinery be used to select among models. To estimate the fraction of the population in the unobservabledormant state, the encounter histories are collapsed to 0 (plant not observed aboveground) and 1 (plant observed aboveground). The Cormack–Jolly–Seber model without constraints on detection probability is used to estimate detection probability, the complement of which is the estimated fraction of the population in the dormant state.Parameter identifiability is an important issue in multi state models. We used the Catchpole–Morgan–Freeman approach to determine which parameters are estimable in principle in our multi state models. Most of 15 tested models were indeed estimable with the notable exception of the most general model, which has fully interactive state- and time-dependent survival and state transition rates. This model would become identifiable if at least some plants would be excavated in years when they do not show up aboveground.Our analyses for three analyzed populations of Cleistes and Cypripedium yielded annual ramet survival rates ranging from 0.86–0.96. Estimates of the average fraction dormant ranged from 0.02–0.30, but with up to half a population in the dormant state in some years. Ultrastructural modeling enables interesting hypotheses to be tested about the relationships of demographic rates with climatic covariates for instance. Such covariate modeling makes the CR approach particularly interesting for evolutionary–ecological questions about, e.g., the adaptive significance of the dormant state.

Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

2015-01-01

Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

Factors affecting breeding season survival of red-headed woodpeckers in South Carolina

Treesearch

John C. Kilgo; Mark Vukovich

2012-01-01

Red-headed woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) populations have declined in the United States and Canada over the past 40 years. However, few demographic studies have been published on the species and none have addressed adult survival. During 2006¨C2007, we estimated survival probabilities of 80 radio-tagged red-headed woodpeckers during the breeding season in...

Development of a nomogram incorporating serum C-reactive protein level to predict overall survival of patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma and its evaluation by decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Ishioka, J; Saito, K; Sakura, M; Yokoyama, M; Matsuoka, Y; Numao, N; Koga, F; Masuda, H; Fujii, Y; Kawakami, S; Kihara, K

2012-09-25

The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic impact of C-reactive protein (CRP) on patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma and to develop a novel nomogram predicting survival. A total of 223 consecutive patients were treated at Tokyo Medical and Dental Hospital. A nomogram incorporating V was developed based on the result of a Cox proportional hazards model. Its efficacy and clinical usefulness was evaluated by concordance index (c-index) and decision curve analysis. Of the 223 patients, 184 (83%) died of cancer. Median follow-up periods of patients who died and those who remained alive were 5 and 11 months, respectively. We developed a novel nomogram incorporating Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, presence of visceral metastasis, haemoglobin and age. The c-index of the nomogram predicting survival probability 6 and 12 months after diagnosis was 0.788 and 0.765, respectively. Decision curve analyses revealed that the novel nomogram incorporating CRP had a superior net benefit than that without CRP for most of the examined probabilities. We demonstrated the prognostic impact of CRP that improved the predictive accuracy of a nomogram for survival probability in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma.

Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

PubMed

Phillott, Andrea D; Grogan, Laura F; Cashins, Scott D; McDonald, Keith R; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F

2013-10-01

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Clinical decision rules for termination of resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Sherbino, Jonathan; Keim, Samuel M; Davis, Daniel P

2010-01-01

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has a low probability of survival to hospital discharge. Four clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been validated to identify patients with no probability of survival. Three of these rules focus on exclusive prehospital basic life support care for OHCA, and two of these rules focus on prehospital advanced life support care for OHCA. Can a CDR for the termination of resuscitation identify a patient with no probability of survival in the setting of OHCA? Six validation studies were selected from a PubMed search. A structured review of each of the studies is presented. In OHCA receiving basic life support care, the BLS-TOR (basic life support termination of resuscitation) rule has a positive predictive value for death of 99.5% (95% confidence interval 98.9-99.8%), and decreases the transportation of all patients by 62.6%. This rule has been appropriately validated for widespread use. In OHCA receiving advanced life support care, no current rule has been appropriately validated for widespread use. The BLS-TOR rule is a simple rule that identifies patients who will not survive OHCA. Further research is required to identify similarly robust CDRs for patients receiving advanced life support care in the setting of OHCA. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A neurotoxic pesticide changes the outcome of aggressive interactions between native and invasive ants

PubMed Central

Barbieri, Rafael F.; Lester, Philip J.; Miller, Alexander S.; Ryan, Ken G.

2013-01-01

Neurotoxic pesticides, such as neonicotinoids, negatively affect the cognitive capacity and fitness of non-target species, and could also modify interspecific interactions. We tested whether sublethal contamination with neonicotinoid could affect foraging, colony fitness and the outcome of behavioural interactions between a native (Monomorium antarcticum) and an invasive ant species (Linepithema humile). The foraging behaviour of both ants was not affected by neonicotinoid exposure. Colonies of the invasive species exposed to the neonicotinoid produced significantly fewer brood. In interspecific confrontations, individuals of the native species exposed to the neonicotinoid lowered their aggression towards the invasive species, although their survival probability was not affected. Exposed individuals of the invasive species interacting with non-exposed native ants displayed increased aggression and had their survival probability reduced. Non-exposed individuals of the invasive species were less aggressive but more likely to survive when interacting with exposed native ants. These results suggest that non-target exposure of invaders to neonicotinoids could either increase or decrease the probability of survival according to the exposure status of the native species. Given that, in any community, different species have different food preferences, and thus different exposure to pesticides, non-target exposure could potentially change the dynamics of communities and influence invasion success. PMID:24266038

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

2001-05-01

Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year overmore » the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i.e., early spring transition occurred, p < 0.05), (2) improved survival during strong downwelling conditions (Bakun units < -250). Survival decreased during weak downwelling conditions (Bakun units between -180 and -100). Strong to moderately strong correlations between January upwelling and April SST (r = 0.5), June SST (r = 0.6), and the North Pacific Index (NPI) of Aleutian Low strength (r > 0.7) suggest January is a period when important effects originate and play out over ensuing months. Significant inverse trend with survival (p < 0.05) was found for Bakun indices in December, indicating strong downwelling improved survival. Higher-than-average adult return rates were observed for cohorts from brood-years 1982-1983, strong El Nino years. Individual hatcheries were found to have unique age-class strength and age-at-return characteristics.« less

The effect of chemical weapons incineration on the survival rates of Red-tailed Tropicbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schreiber, E.A.; Schenk, G.A.; Doherty, P.F.

2001-01-01

In 1992, the Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System (JACADS) began incinerating U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles on Johnston Atoll (Pacific Ocean) where about 500,000 seabirds breed, including Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda). We hypothesized that survival rates of birds were lower in those nesting downwind of the incinerator smokestack compared to those upwind, and that birds might move away from the area. From 1992 - 2000 we monitored survival and movements between areas upwind and downwind from the JACADS facility. We used a multi-strata mark recapture approach to model survival, probability of recapture and movement. Probability of recapture was significantly higher for birds in downwind areas (owing to greater recapture effort) and thus was an important 'nuisance' parameter to take into account in modeling. We found no differences in survival between birds nesting upwind ( 0.8588) and downwind (0.8550). There was no consistent difference in movement rates between upwind or downwind areas from year to year: differences found may be attributed to differing vegetation growth and human activities between the areas. Our results suggest that JACADS has had no documentable influence on the survival and year to year movement of Red-tailed Tropicbirds.

Demographic outcomes of diverse migration strategies assessed in a metapopulation of tundra swans.

PubMed

Ely, Craig R; Meixell, Brandt W

2016-01-01

Migration is a prominent aspect of the life history of many avian species, but the demographic consequences of variable migration strategies have only infrequently been investigated, and rarely when using modern technological and analytical methods for assessing survival, movement patterns, and long-term productivity in the context of life history theory. We monitored the fates of 50 satellite-implanted tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus) over 4 years from five disparate breeding areas in Alaska, and used known-fate analyses to estimate monthly survival probability relative to migration distance, breeding area, migratory flyway, breeding status, and age. We specifically tested whether migratory birds face a trade-off, whereby long-distance migrants realize higher survival rates at the cost of lower productivity because of reduced time on breeding areas relative to birds that migrate shorter distances and spend more time on breeding areas. Annual migration distances varied significantly among breeding areas (1020 to 12720 km), and were strongly negatively correlated with time spent on breeding areas (r = -0.986). Estimates of annual survival probability varied by wintering area (Pacific coast, Alaska Peninsula, and Eastern seaboard) and ranged from 0.79 (95%CI: 0.70-0.88) to 1.0, depending on criteria used to discern mortalities from radio failures. We did not find evidence for a linear relationship between migration distance and survival as swans from the breeding areas with the shortest and longest migration distances had the highest survival probabilities. Survival was lower in the first year post-marking than in subsequent years, but there was not support for seasonal differences in survival. Productivity varied among breeding populations and was generally inversely correlated to survival, but not migration distance or time spent on breeding areas. Tundra swans conformed to a major tenet of life history theory, as populations with the highest survival generally had the lowest productivity. The lack of a uniform relationship between time spent on breeding areas and productivity, or time spent on wintering areas and survival, indicates that factors other than temporal investment dictate demographic outcomes in this species. The tremendous diversity of migration strategies we identify in Alaskan tundra swans, without clear impacts on survival, underscores the ability of this species to adapt to different environments and climatic regimes.

An Instrument for Estimating the 6-Month Survival Probability After Whole-brain Irradiation Alone for Cerebral Metastases from Gynecological Cancer.

PubMed

Janssen, Stefan; Hansen, Heinke C; Schild, Steven E; Rades, Dirk

2018-06-01

Patients with cerebral metastases from gynecological cancer who receive whole-brain irradiation (WBI) alone require personalized therapy. This study contributes to personalized care by creating an instrument to predict 6-month survival probability. In 49 patients, six pre-treatment variables, namely age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score (ECOG-PS), primary tumor type, number of cerebral metastases, metastasis outside the brain, and interval between diagnosis of gynecological cancer and WBI, were analyzed for survival. Of the six pre-treatment variables, ECOG-PS was significantly associated with survival (p=0.014) and metastasis outside the brain showed a trend for association (p=0.096). Six-month survival rates divided by 10 resulted in scores of 0, 2 or 7 points for ECOG-PS and of 2 or 7 points for metastasis outside the brain. Scores for individual patients were 2, 4, 7, 9 or 14 points. Three groups were created, those with 2-7, 9 and 14 points, with 6-month survival rates of 10%, 53% and 100%, respectively (p=0.004). An instrument was designed to predict the 6-month survival of patients receiving WBI for cerebral metastases from gynecological cancer and facilitate personalized care. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

PubMed

Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

2017-03-01

Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Survival probabilities at spherical frontiers.

PubMed

Lavrentovich, Maxim O; Nelson, David R

2015-06-01

Motivated by tumor growth and spatial population genetics, we study the interplay between evolutionary and spatial dynamics at the surfaces of three-dimensional, spherical range expansions. We consider range expansion radii that grow with an arbitrary power-law in time: R(t) = R0(1 + t/t(∗))Θ, where Θ is a growth exponent, R0 is the initial radius, and t(∗) is a characteristic time for the growth, to be affected by the inflating geometry. We vary the parameters t(∗) and Θ to capture a variety of possible growth regimes. Guided by recent results for two-dimensional inflating range expansions, we identify key dimensionless parameters that describe the survival probability of a mutant cell with a small selective advantage arising at the population frontier. Using analytical techniques, we calculate this probability for arbitrary Θ. We compare our results to simulations of linearly inflating expansions (Θ = 1 spherical Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscunov waves) and treadmilling populations (Θ = 0, with cells in the interior removed by apoptosis or a similar process). We find that mutations at linearly inflating fronts have survival probabilities enhanced by factors of 100 or more relative to mutations at treadmilling population frontiers. We also discuss the special properties of "marginally inflating" (Θ = 1/2) expansions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weibull-Based Design Methodology for Rotating Aircraft Engine Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry

2002-01-01

The NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)-Engine) is used as the basis of a Weibull-based life and reliability analysis. Each component's life and thus the engine's life is defined by high-cycle fatigue (HCF) or low-cycle fatigue (LCF). Knowing the cumulative life distribution of each of the components making up the engine as represented by a Weibull slope is a prerequisite to predicting the life and reliability of the entire engine. As the engine Weibull slope increases, the predicted lives decrease. The predicted engine lives L(sub 5) (95 % probability of survival) of approximately 17,000 and 32,000 hr do correlate with current engine maintenance practices without and with refurbishment. respectively. The individual high pressure turbine (HPT) blade lives necessary to obtain a blade system life L(sub 0.1) (99.9 % probability of survival) of 9000 hr for Weibull slopes of 3, 6 and 9, are 47,391 and 20,652 and 15,658 hr, respectively. For a design life of the HPT disks having probable points of failure equal to or greater than 36,000 hr at a probability of survival of 99.9 %, the predicted disk system life L(sub 0.1) can vary from 9,408 to 24,911 hr.

Comparison of dynamic treatment regimes via inverse probability weighting.

PubMed

Hernán, Miguel A; Lanoy, Emilie; Costagliola, Dominique; Robins, James M

2006-03-01

Appropriate analysis of observational data is our best chance to obtain answers to many questions that involve dynamic treatment regimes. This paper describes a simple method to compare dynamic treatment regimes by artificially censoring subjects and then using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to adjust for any selection bias introduced by the artificial censoring. The basic strategy can be summarized in four steps: 1) define two regimes of interest, 2) artificially censor individuals when they stop following one of the regimes of interest, 3) estimate inverse probability weights to adjust for the potential selection bias introduced by censoring in the previous step, 4) compare the survival of the uncensored individuals under each regime of interest by fitting an inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model with the dichotomous regime indicator and the baseline confounders as covariates. In the absence of model misspecification, the method is valid provided data are available on all time-varying and baseline joint predictors of survival and regime discontinuation. We present an application of the method to compare the AIDS-free survival under two dynamic treatment regimes in a large prospective study of HIV-infected patients. The paper concludes by discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of censoring/IPW versus g-estimation of nested structural models to compare dynamic regimes.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K . We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K . Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time tw also survives at t >tw . Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t /tw , a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Tangled nature model of evolutionary dynamics reconsidered: Structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance.

PubMed

Andersen, Christian Walther; Sibani, Paolo

2016-05-01

Based on the stochastic dynamics of interacting agents which reproduce, mutate, and die, the tangled nature model (TNM) describes key emergent features of biological and cultural ecosystems' evolution. While trait inheritance is not included in many applications, i.e., the interactions of an agent and those of its mutated offspring are taken to be uncorrelated, in the family of TNMs introduced in this work correlations of varying strength are parametrized by a positive integer K. We first show that the interactions generated by our rule are nearly independent of K. Consequently, the structural and dynamical effects of trait inheritance can be studied independently of effects related to the form of the interactions. We then show that changing K strengthens the core structure of the ecology, leads to population abundance distributions better approximated by log-normal probability densities, and increases the probability that a species extant at time t_{w} also survives at t>t_{w}. Finally, survival probabilities of species are shown to decay as powers of the ratio t/t_{w}, a so-called pure aging behavior usually seen in glassy systems of physical origin. We find a quantitative dynamical effect of trait inheritance, namely, that increasing the value of K numerically decreases the decay exponent of the species survival probability.

Survival and failure modes: platform-switching for internal and external hexagon cemented fixed dental prostheses.

PubMed

Anchieta, Rodolfo B; Machado, Lucas S; Hirata, Ronaldo; Coelho, Paulo G; Bonfante, Estevam A

2016-10-01

This study evaluated the probability of survival (reliability) of platform-switched fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) cemented on different implant-abutment connection designs. Eighty-four-three-unit FDPs (molar pontic) were cemented on abutments connected to two implants of external or internal hexagon connection. Four groups (n = 21 each) were established: external hexagon connection and regular platform (ERC); external hexagon connection and switched platform (ESC); internal hexagon and regular platform (IRC); and internal hexagon and switched platform (ISC). Prostheses were subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Weibull curves and probability of survival for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 400 N (two-sided 90% CI) were calculated. The beta values of 0.22, 0.48, 0.50, and 1.25 for groups ERC, ESC, IRC, and ISC, respectively, indicated a limited role of fatigue in damage accumulation, except for group ISC. Survival decreased for both platform-switched groups (ESC: 74%, and ISC: 59%) compared with the regular matching platform counterparts (ERC: 95%, and IRC: 98%). Characteristic strength was higher only for ERC compared with ESC, but not different between internal connections. Failures chiefly involved the abutment screw. Platform switching decreased the probability of survival of FDPs on both external and internal connections. The absence in loss of characteristic strength observed in internal hexagon connections favor their use compared with platform-switched external hexagon connections. © 2016 Eur J Oral Sci.

Early environment and recruitment of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) into the breeding population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.; Ward, David H.

2004-01-01

In geese, growth regulates survival in the first year. We examined whether early growth, which is primarily governed by environmental conditions, also affects the probability that individuals that survive their first year enter the breeding population. We used logistic regression on a sample of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) that were weighed at a known age in their first summer and observed during winter (indicating that they had survived the principal mortality period in their first year) to study whether early growth influenced the probability that those individuals would be recruited into the breeding population. We also examined the effects of cohort (1986-1996), sex, age when measured, and area where individuals were reared. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion score contained body mass, age (days) at measurement, cohort, sex, and brood-rearing area. Models that included variable mass had 85% of the cumulative model weight of the models we considered, indicating that gosling mass had a substantial effect on probability of them entering the breeding population. Females were more likely to be detected breeding than males, which is consistent with the differential fidelity of the sexes. Of individuals that survived the first year, larger goslings were more likely to become breeders. More recent cohorts were less likely to have been detected as breeders. Our findings indicate that environment during the growth period affects the ability of individuals to enter the breeding population, even after accounting for the effects of growth on survival.

Drawing Nomograms with R: applications to categorical outcome and survival data.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Kattan, Michael W

2017-05-01

Outcome prediction is a major task in clinical medicine. The standard approach to this work is to collect a variety of predictors and build a model of appropriate type. The model is a mathematical equation that connects the outcome of interest with the predictors. A new patient with given clinical characteristics can be predicted for outcome with this model. However, the equation describing the relationship between predictors and outcome is often complex and the computation requires software for practical use. There is another method called nomogram which is a graphical calculating device allowing an approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function. In this article, we describe how to draw nomograms for various outcomes with nomogram() function. Binary outcome is fit by logistic regression model and the outcome of interest is the probability of the event of interest. Ordinal outcome variable is also discussed. Survival analysis can be fit with parametric model to fully describe the distributions of survival time. Statistics such as the median survival time, survival probability up to a specific time point are taken as the outcome of interest.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

PubMed Central

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Hard choices in assessing survival past dams — a comparison of single- and paired-release strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Stich, Daniel S.; Sigourney, Douglas B.

2017-01-01

Mark–recapture models are widely used to estimate survival of salmon smolts migrating past dams. Paired releases have been used to improve estimate accuracy by removing components of mortality not attributable to the dam. This method is accompanied by reduced precision because (i) sample size is reduced relative to a single, large release; and (ii) variance calculations inflate error. We modeled an idealized system with a single dam to assess trade-offs between accuracy and precision and compared methods using root mean squared error (RMSE). Simulations were run under predefined conditions (dam mortality, background mortality, detection probability, and sample size) to determine scenarios when the paired release was preferable to a single release. We demonstrate that a paired-release design provides a theoretical advantage over a single-release design only at large sample sizes and high probabilities of detection. At release numbers typical of many survival studies, paired release can result in overestimation of dam survival. Failures to meet model assumptions of a paired release may result in further overestimation of dam-related survival. Under most conditions, a single-release strategy was preferable.

Trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome) with an 11-year survival.

PubMed

Zoll, B; Wolf, J; Lensing-Hebben, D; Pruggmayer, M; Thorpe, B

1993-01-01

Trisomy 13 is very rare in live-born children. Only a small number of these children survive the first year and very few cases are reported to live longer. Survival time depends partly on the cytogenetic findings--full trisomy 13 or trisomy 13 mosaicism--and partly on the existence of serious somatic malformations. We report on a 11-year-old girl with full trisomy 13. In this case, missing cerebral and cardiovascular malformations probably allowed the long survival.

Quantum illumination for enhanced detection of Rayleigh-fading targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) is an entanglement-enhanced sensing system whose performance advantage over a comparable classical system survives its usage in an entanglement-breaking scenario plagued by loss and noise. In particular, QI's error-probability exponent for discriminating between equally likely hypotheses of target absence or presence is 6 dB higher than that of the optimum classical system using the same transmitted power. This performance advantage, however, presumes that the target return, when present, has known amplitude and phase, a situation that seldom occurs in light detection and ranging (lidar) applications. At lidar wavelengths, most target surfaces are sufficiently rough that their returns are speckled, i.e., they have Rayleigh-distributed amplitudes and uniformly distributed phases. QI's optical parametric amplifier receiver—which affords a 3 dB better-than-classical error-probability exponent for a return with known amplitude and phase—fails to offer any performance gain for Rayleigh-fading targets. We show that the sum-frequency generation receiver [Zhuang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 040801 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.040801]—whose error-probability exponent for a nonfading target achieves QI's full 6 dB advantage over optimum classical operation—outperforms the classical system for Rayleigh-fading targets. In this case, QI's advantage is subexponential: its error probability is lower than the classical system's by a factor of 1 /ln(M κ ¯NS/NB) , when M κ ¯NS/NB≫1 , with M ≫1 being the QI transmitter's time-bandwidth product, NS≪1 its brightness, κ ¯ the target return's average intensity, and NB the background light's brightness.

Quantitative Differences in a Single Maternal Factor Determine Survival Probabilities among Drosophila Germ Cells.

PubMed

Slaidina, Maija; Lehmann, Ruth

2017-01-23

Germ cell death occurs in many species [1-3] and has been proposed as a mechanism by which the fittest, strongest, or least damaged germ cells are selected for transmission to the next generation. However, little is known about how the choice is made between germ cell survival and death. Here, we focus on the mechanisms that regulate germ cell survival during embryonic development in Drosophila. We find that the decision to die is a germ cell-intrinsic process linked to quantitative differences in germ plasm inheritance, such that higher germ plasm inheritance correlates with higher primordial germ cell (PGC) survival probability. We demonstrate that the maternal factor lipid phosphate phosphatase Wunen-2 (Wun2) regulates PGC survival in a dose-dependent manner. Since wun2 mRNA levels correlate with the levels of other maternal determinants at the single-cell level, we propose that Wun2 is used as a readout of the overall germ plasm quantity, such that only PGCs with the highest germ plasm quantity survive. Furthermore, we demonstrate that Wun2 and p53, another regulator of PGC survival, have opposite yet independent effects on PGC survival. Since p53 regulates cell death upon DNA damage and various cellular stresses, we hypothesize that together they ensure selection of the PGCs with highest germ plasm quantity and least cellular damage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Rainbow Trout recruitment, abundance, survival, and growth during a boom-and-bust cycle in a tailwater fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Micheal D.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2017-01-01

Data from a large-scale mark-recapture study was used in an open population model to determine the cause for long-term trends in growth and abundance of a Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss population in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam, AZ. Reduced growth affected multiple life stages and processes causing negative feedbacks that regulated the abundance of the population, including: higher mortality of larger fish; lower rates of recruitment (young of year) in years when growth was reduced; and lower rates of sexual maturation the following year. High and steady flows during spring and summer of 2011 resulted in very large recruitment event. The population declined 10-fold by 2016 due a combination of lower recruitment and reduced survival of larger trout. Survival rates for trout ≥ 225 mm in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 11%, 21%, and 22% lower than average survival rates between 2012 and 2013, respectively. Abundance at the end of the study would have been three- to five-fold higher had survival rates for larger trout remained at the elevated levels estimated for 2012 and 2013. Growth declined between 2012 and 2014 owing to reduced prey availability, which led to very poor fish condition by fall of 2014 (~0.9-0.95). Poor condition in turn resulted in low survival rates of larger fish during fall of 2014 and winter of 2015, which contributed to the population collapse. In Glen Canyon, large recruitment events driven by high flows can lead to increases in the population that cannot be sustained due to limitations in prey supply. In the absence of being able to regulate prey supply, flows which reduce the probability of large recruitment events can be used to avoid boom-and-bust population cycles. Our study demonstrates that mark-recapture is a very informative approach for understanding the dynamics of tailwater trout populations.

Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

PubMed

Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

2012-03-01

1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

PubMed

Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

2017-07-01

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Survival probability of an edge Majorana in a one-dimensional p-wave superconducting chain under sudden quenching of parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajak, Atanu; Dutta, Amit

2014-04-01

We consider the temporal evolution of a zero-energy edge Majorana of a spinless p-wave superconducting chain following a sudden change of a parameter of the Hamiltonian. Starting from one of the topological phases that has an edge Majorana, the system is suddenly driven to the other topological phase or to the (topologically) trivial phases and to the quantum critical points (QCPs) separating these phases. The survival probability of the initial edge Majorana as a function of time is studied following the quench. Interestingly when the chain is quenched to the QCP, we find a nearly perfect oscillation of the survival probability, indicating that the Majorana travels back and forth between two ends, with a time period that scales with the system size. We also generalize to the situation when there is a next-nearest-neighbor hopping in a superconducting chain and there results in a pair of edge Majorana at each end of the chain in the topological phase. We show that the frequency of oscillation of the survival probability gets doubled in this case. We also perform an instantaneous quenching of the Hamiltonian (with two Majorana modes at each end of the chain) to an another Hamiltonian which has only one Majorana mode in equilibrium; the MSP shows oscillations as a function of time with a noticeable decay in the amplitude. On the other hand for a quenching which is reverse to the previous one, the MSP decays rapidly and stays close to zero with fluctuations in amplitude.

And the first one now will later be last: Time-reversal in cormack-jolly-seber models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.

2016-01-01

The models of Cormack, Jolly and Seber (CJS) are remarkable in providing a rich set of inferences about population survival, recruitment, abundance and even sampling probabilities from a seemingly limited data source: a matrix of 1's and 0's reflecting animal captures and recaptures at multiple sampling occasions. Survival and sampling probabilities are estimated directly in CJS models, whereas estimators for recruitment and abundance were initially obtained as derived quantities. Various investigators have noted that just as standard modeling provides direct inferences about survival, reversing the time order of capture history data permits direct modeling and inference about recruitment. Here we review the development of reverse-time modeling efforts, emphasizing the kinds of inferences and questions to which they seem well suited.

Survival potential of Phytophthora infestans sporangia in relation to meteorological factors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessment of meteorological factors coupled with sporangia survival curves may enhance effective management of potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans. We utilized a non-parametric density estimation approach to evaluate the cumulative probability of occurrence of temperature and relat...

Detection of the nipple in automated 3D breast ultrasound using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hannah; Hong, Helen

2014-03-01

We propose an automatic method for nipple detection on 3D automated breast ultrasound (3D ABUS) images using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map. First, to identify coronal images that appeared remarkable distinction between nipple-areola region and skin, skewness of each coronal image is measured and the negatively skewed images are selected. Then, coronal slab-average-projection image is reformatted from selected images. Second, to localize nipple-areola region, elliptical ROI covering nipple-areola region is detected using Hough ellipse transform in coronal slab-average-projection image. Finally, to separate the nipple from areola region, 3D Otsu's thresholding is applied to the elliptical ROI and cumulative probability map in the elliptical ROI is generated by assigning high probability to low intensity region. False detected small components are eliminated using morphological opening and the center point of detected nipple region is calculated. Experimental results show that our method provides 94.4% nipple detection rate.

Survival-mediated capture and fusion cross sections for heavy-element synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, L.; Loveland, W.

2018-01-01

The cross section for producing a heavy evaporation residue σEVR in a fusion reaction can be written as a product of three nonseparable factors, i.e., the capture cross section, the fusion probability PCN, and the survival probability Wsur. Each of these factors is dependent on the spin. However, one must remember that the Wsur term is zero or very small for higher spin values, thus effectively limiting the capture and fusion terms. For a series of ˜287 reactions leading to heavy evaporation residues with ZCN≤110 , we point out the implications of this fact for capture cross sections for heavy element formation reactions. From a comparison of calculated and measured evaporation residue cross sections we deduce values of the fusion probability PCN for some of these reactions.

Multiple imputation for cure rate quantile regression with censored data.

PubMed

Wu, Yuanshan; Yin, Guosheng

2017-03-01

The main challenge in the context of cure rate analysis is that one never knows whether censored subjects are cured or uncured, or whether they are susceptible or insusceptible to the event of interest. Considering the susceptible indicator as missing data, we propose a multiple imputation approach to cure rate quantile regression for censored data with a survival fraction. We develop an iterative algorithm to estimate the conditionally uncured probability for each subject. By utilizing this estimated probability and Bernoulli sample imputation, we can classify each subject as cured or uncured, and then employ the locally weighted method to estimate the quantile regression coefficients with only the uncured subjects. Repeating the imputation procedure multiple times and taking an average over the resultant estimators, we obtain consistent estimators for the quantile regression coefficients. Our approach relaxes the usual global linearity assumption, so that we can apply quantile regression to any particular quantile of interest. We establish asymptotic properties for the proposed estimators, including both consistency and asymptotic normality. We conduct simulation studies to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed multiple imputation method and apply it to a lung cancer study as an illustration. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Plasmodium Parasitemia Associated With Increased Survival in Ebola Virus-Infected Patients.

PubMed

Rosenke, Kyle; Adjemian, Jennifer; Munster, Vincent J; Marzi, Andrea; Falzarano, Darryl; Onyango, Clayton O; Ochieng, Melvin; Juma, Bonventure; Fischer, Robert J; Prescott, Joseph B; Safronetz, David; Omballa, Victor; Owuor, Collins; Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Martellaro, Cynthia; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Zemtsova, Galina; Self, Joshua; Bushmaker, Trenton; McNally, Kristin; Rowe, Thomas; Emery, Shannon L; Feldmann, Friederike; Williamson, Brandi N; Best, Sonja M; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Grolla, Allen; Strong, James E; Kobinger, Gary; Bolay, Fatorma K; Zoon, Kathryn C; Stassijns, Jorgen; Giuliani, Ruggero; de Smet, Martin; Nichol, Stuart T; Fields, Barry; Sprecher, Armand; Massaquoi, Moses; Feldmann, Heinz; de Wit, Emmie

2016-10-15

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa has resulted in 28 646 suspected, probable, and confirmed Ebola virus infections. Nevertheless, malaria remains a large public health burden in the region affected by the outbreak. A joint Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Institutes of Health diagnostic laboratory was established in Monrovia, Liberia, in August 2014, to provide laboratory diagnostics for Ebola virus. All blood samples from suspected Ebola virus-infected patients admitted to the Médecins Sans Frontières ELWA3 Ebola treatment unit in Monrovia were tested by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for the presence of Ebola virus and Plasmodium species RNA. Clinical outcome in laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus-infected patients was analyzed as a function of age, sex, Ebola viremia, and Plasmodium species parasitemia. The case fatality rate of 1182 patients with laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus infections was 52%. The probability of surviving decreased with increasing age and decreased with increasing Ebola viral load. Ebola virus-infected patients were 20% more likely to survive when Plasmodium species parasitemia was detected, even after controlling for Ebola viral load and age; those with the highest levels of parasitemia had a survival rate of 83%. This effect was independent of treatment with antimalarials, as this was provided to all patients. Moreover, treatment with antimalarials did not affect survival in the Ebola virus mouse model. Plasmodium species parasitemia is associated with an increase in the probability of surviving Ebola virus infection. More research is needed to understand the molecular mechanism underlying this remarkable phenomenon and translate it into treatment options for Ebola virus infection. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Plasmodium Parasitemia Associated With Increased Survival in Ebola Virus–Infected Patients

PubMed Central

Rosenke, Kyle; Adjemian, Jennifer; Munster, Vincent J.; Marzi, Andrea; Falzarano, Darryl; Onyango, Clayton O.; Ochieng, Melvin; Juma, Bonventure; Fischer, Robert J.; Prescott, Joseph B.; Safronetz, David; Omballa, Victor; Owuor, Collins; Hoenen, Thomas; Groseth, Allison; Martellaro, Cynthia; van Doremalen, Neeltje; Zemtsova, Galina; Self, Joshua; Bushmaker, Trenton; McNally, Kristin; Rowe, Thomas; Emery, Shannon L.; Feldmann, Friederike; Williamson, Brandi N.; Best, Sonja M.; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Grolla, Allen; Strong, James E.; Kobinger, Gary; Bolay, Fatorma K.; Zoon, Kathryn C.; Stassijns, Jorgen; Giuliani, Ruggero; de Smet, Martin; Nichol, Stuart T.; Fields, Barry; Sprecher, Armand; Massaquoi, Moses; Feldmann, Heinz; de Wit, Emmie

2016-01-01

Background. The ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa has resulted in 28 646 suspected, probable, and confirmed Ebola virus infections. Nevertheless, malaria remains a large public health burden in the region affected by the outbreak. A joint Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Institutes of Health diagnostic laboratory was established in Monrovia, Liberia, in August 2014, to provide laboratory diagnostics for Ebola virus. Methods. All blood samples from suspected Ebola virus–infected patients admitted to the Médecins Sans Frontières ELWA3 Ebola treatment unit in Monrovia were tested by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for the presence of Ebola virus and Plasmodium species RNA. Clinical outcome in laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus–infected patients was analyzed as a function of age, sex, Ebola viremia, and Plasmodium species parasitemia. Results. The case fatality rate of 1182 patients with laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus infections was 52%. The probability of surviving decreased with increasing age and decreased with increasing Ebola viral load. Ebola virus–infected patients were 20% more likely to survive when Plasmodium species parasitemia was detected, even after controlling for Ebola viral load and age; those with the highest levels of parasitemia had a survival rate of 83%. This effect was independent of treatment with antimalarials, as this was provided to all patients. Moreover, treatment with antimalarials did not affect survival in the Ebola virus mouse model. Conclusions. Plasmodium species parasitemia is associated with an increase in the probability of surviving Ebola virus infection. More research is needed to understand the molecular mechanism underlying this remarkable phenomenon and translate it into treatment options for Ebola virus infection. PMID:27531847

The relationship of body size to survivorship of hatchling snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina): an evaluation of the "bigger is better" hypothesis.

PubMed

Congdon, Justin D; Nagle, Roy D; Dunham, Arthur E; Beck, Chirstopher W; Kinney, Owen M; Yeomans, S Rebecca

1999-11-01

In many organisms, body size is positively correlated with traits that are presumably related to fitness. If directional selection frequently favors larger offspring (the "bigger is better" hypothesis), the results of such selection should be detectable with field experiments. We tested the "bigger is better" hypothesis in hatchling snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) by conducting one long-term and three short-term experiments on the University of Michigan E.S. George Reserve in southeastern Michigan. In the fall of 1995 and 1996, we released hatchlings at artificial nests separated from the nearest wetland by fences. We recorded the proportion of hatchlings recaptured, the time it took hatchlings to move to fences from artificial nests 45, 55, and 80 m away, and dispersion along the fence. We determined whether the response variables and probability of recapture at fences were associated with hatchling body size. During 1995, average travel times of hatchlings from the experimental nests were not related to distance from the fence; however, time to recapture was positively correlated with dispersion from the zero point on the fence, and the maximum time to reach the fence was almost twice as long for hatchlings from the 80-m nest compared to those from the 45-m nest. Sixty-seven percent of the hatchlings reached the fence and the proportions doing so from each nest were not different. Body size was not significantly related to probability of recapture in either of the 1995 experiments. In 1996, 59% of released hatchlings were recaptured. Time to recapture was not related to dispersion from the zero point or to body size. Cubic spline analysis suggested stabilizing selection on body size. We also conducted a set of long-term hatchling release experiments between 1980-1993 to compare the survival of hatchlings released at nest sites to that of hatchlings released directly into marshes, and we looked for relationships between survivorship and hatchling body size. During 7 years in which more than 30 hatchlings were released, 413 hatchlings were released directly into the marsh and 262 were released at nests: their probability of survival did not differ. Over all years, for both release groups combined and for each group separately, survival was not related to body size. In 1983 alone, survival was also not related to body size for either group or for both groups combined. In our three short-term experiments and one long-term experiment, we found no evidence to support the "bigger is better" hypothesis. When selection on body size did occur, selection was stabilizing, not directional for larger size.

Planted Hardwood Development on Clay Soil Without Weed Control Through 16 Years

Treesearch

Roger M. Krinard; Harvey E. Kennedy

1987-01-01

Average survival at age 16 was determined for five hardwood species that received no weed control after planting at 10- by 10-foot spacing on cleared Sharkey clay soil. The average survival rates, in percent, were: sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.), 35; cottonwood (fopulus delfoides Bartr. ex Marsh.), 45; Nuttall oak (Quercus...

Estimating the probability of survival of individual shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata mill.) trees

Treesearch

Sudip Shrestha; Thomas B. Lynch; Difei Zhang; James M. Guldin

2012-01-01

A survival model is needed in a forest growth system which predicts the survival of trees on individual basis or on a stand basis (Gertner, 1989). An individual-tree modeling approach is one of the better methods available for predicting growth and yield as it provides essential information about particular tree species; tree size, tree quality and tree present status...

Cost-effectiveness of histamine receptor-2 antagonist versus proton pump inhibitor for stress ulcer prophylaxis in critically ill patients*.

PubMed

MacLaren, Robert; Campbell, Jon

2014-04-01

To examine the cost-effectiveness of using histamine receptor-2 antagonist or proton pump inhibitor for stress ulcer prophylaxis. Decision analysis model examining costs and effectiveness of using histamine receptor-2 antagonist or proton pump inhibitor for stress ulcer prophylaxis. Costs were expressed in 2012 U.S. dollars from the perspective of the institution and included drug regimens and the following outcomes: clinically significant stress-related mucosal bleed, ventilator-associated pneumonia, and Clostridium difficile infection. Effectiveness was the mortality risk associated with these outcomes and represented by survival. Costs, occurrence rates, and mortality probabilities were extracted from published data. A simulation model. A mixed adult ICU population. Histamine receptor-2 antagonist or proton pump inhibitor for 9 days of stress ulcer prophylaxis therapy. Output variables were expected costs, expected survival rates, incremental cost, and incremental survival rate. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the drivers of incremental cost and incremental survival. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted using second-order Monte Carlo simulation. For the base case analysis, the expected cost of providing stress ulcer prophylaxis was $6,707 with histamine receptor-2 antagonist and $7,802 with proton pump inhibitor, resulting in a cost saving of $1,095 with histamine receptor-2 antagonist. The associated mortality probabilities were 3.819% and 3.825%, respectively, resulting in an absolute survival benefit of 0.006% with histamine receptor-2 antagonist. The primary drivers of incremental cost and survival were the assumptions surrounding ventilator-associated pneumonia and bleed. The probabilities that histamine receptor-2 antagonist was less costly and provided favorable survival were 89.4% and 55.7%, respectively. A secondary analysis assuming equal rates of C. difficile infection showed a cost saving of $908 with histamine receptor-2 antagonists, but the survival benefit of 0.0167% favored proton pump inhibitors. Histamine receptor-2 antagonist therapy appears to reduce costs with survival benefit comparable to proton pump inhibitor therapy for stress ulcer prophylaxis. Ventilator-associated pneumonia and bleed are the variables most affecting these outcomes. The uncertainty in the findings justifies a prospective trial.

Coincidence probability as a measure of the average phase-space density at freeze-out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialas, A.; Czyz, W.; Zalewski, K.

2006-02-01

It is pointed out that the average semi-inclusive particle phase-space density at freeze-out can be determined from the coincidence probability of the events observed in multiparticle production. The method of measurement is described and its accuracy examined.

Dynamic prediction of patient outcomes during ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

PubMed

Kim, Joonghee; Kim, Kyuseok; Callaway, Clifton W; Doh, Kibbeum; Choi, Jungho; Park, Jongdae; Jo, You Hwan; Lee, Jae Hyuk

2017-02-01

The probability of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and subsequent favourable outcomes changes dynamically during advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). We sought to model these changes using time-to-event analysis in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Adult (≥18 years old), non-traumatic OHCA patients without prehospital ROSC were included. Utstein variables and initial arterial blood gas measurements were used as predictors. The incidence rate of ROSC during the first 30min of ACLS in the emergency department (ED) was modelled using spline-based parametric survival analysis. Conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC (1-week and 1-month survival and 6-month neurologic recovery) were modelled using multivariable logistic regression. The ROSC and conditional probability models were then combined to estimate the likelihood of achieving ROSC and subsequent outcomes by providing k additional minutes of effort. A total of 727 patients were analyzed. The incidence rate of ROSC increased rapidly until the 10th minute of ED ACLS, and it subsequently decreased. The conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC were also dependent on the duration of resuscitation with odds ratios for 1-week and 1-month survival and neurologic recovery of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p<0.001), 0.93 (0.88-0.97, p=0.001) and 0.93 (0.87-0.99, p=0.031) per 1-min increase, respectively. Calibration testing of the combined models showed good correlation between mean predicted probability and actual prevalence. The probability of ROSC and favourable subsequent outcomes changed according to a multiphasic pattern over the first 30min of ACLS, and modelling of the dynamic changes was feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

2003-01-01

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury from boats and other human causes and control the loss of foraging habitat to coastal development.

Robustness of survival estimates for radio-marked animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Chen, C.-L.

1992-01-01

Telemetry techniques are often used to study the survival of birds and mammals; particularly whcn mark-recapture approaches are unsuitable. Both parametric and nonparametric methods to estimate survival have becn developed or modified from other applications. An implicit assumption in these approaches is that the probability of re-locating an animal with a functioning transmitter is one. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to determine the bias and variance of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and an estimator based also on the assumption of constant hazard and to eva!uate the performance of the two-sample tests associated with each. Modifications of each estimator which allow a re-Iocation probability of less than one are described and evaluated. Generallv the unmodified estimators were biased but had lower variance. At low sample sizes all estimators performed poorly. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of all test statistics reasonably approximated the null distribution when survival was low but not when it was high. The power of the two-sample tests were similar.

Systemic treatments for metastatic cutaneous melanoma.

PubMed

Pasquali, Sandro; Hadjinicolaou, Andreas V; Chiarion Sileni, Vanna; Rossi, Carlo Riccardo; Mocellin, Simone

2018-02-06

The prognosis of people with metastatic cutaneous melanoma, a skin cancer, is generally poor. Recently, new classes of drugs (e.g. immune checkpoint inhibitors and small-molecule targeted drugs) have significantly improved patient prognosis, which has drastically changed the landscape of melanoma therapeutic management. This is an update of a Cochrane Review published in 2000. To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of systemic treatments for metastatic cutaneous melanoma. We searched the following databases up to October 2017: the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase and LILACS. We also searched five trials registers and the ASCO database in February 2017, and checked the reference lists of included studies for further references to relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs). We considered RCTs of systemic therapies for people with unresectable lymph node metastasis and distant metastatic cutaneous melanoma compared to any other treatment. We checked the reference lists of selected articles to identify further references to relevant trials. Two review authors extracted data, and a third review author independently verified extracted data. We implemented a network meta-analysis approach to make indirect comparisons and rank treatments according to their effectiveness (as measured by the impact on survival) and harm (as measured by occurrence of high-grade toxicity). The same two review authors independently assessed the risk of bias of eligible studies according to Cochrane standards and assessed evidence quality based on the GRADE criteria. We included 122 RCTs (28,561 participants). Of these, 83 RCTs, encompassing 21 different comparisons, were included in meta-analyses. Included participants were men and women with a mean age of 57.5 years who were recruited from hospital settings. Twenty-nine studies included people whose cancer had spread to their brains. Interventions were categorised into five groups: conventional chemotherapy (including single agent and polychemotherapy), biochemotherapy (combining chemotherapy with cytokines such as interleukin-2 and interferon-alpha), immune checkpoint inhibitors (such as anti-CTLA4 and anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies), small-molecule targeted drugs used for melanomas with specific gene changes (such as BRAF inhibitors and MEK inhibitors), and other agents (such as anti-angiogenic drugs). Most interventions were compared with chemotherapy. In many cases, trials were sponsored by pharmaceutical companies producing the tested drug: this was especially true for new classes of drugs, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors and small-molecule targeted drugs.When compared to single agent chemotherapy, the combination of multiple chemotherapeutic agents (polychemotherapy) did not translate into significantly better survival (overall survival: HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.16, 6 studies, 594 participants; high-quality evidence; progression-free survival: HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.25, 5 studies, 398 participants; high-quality evidence. Those who received combined treatment are probably burdened by higher toxicity rates (RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.44 to 2.71, 3 studies, 390 participants; moderate-quality evidence). (We defined toxicity as the occurrence of grade 3 (G3) or higher adverse events according to the World Health Organization scale.)Compared to chemotherapy, biochemotherapy (chemotherapy combined with both interferon-alpha and interleukin-2) improved progression-free survival (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.99, 6 studies, 964 participants; high-quality evidence), but did not significantly improve overall survival (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.06, 7 studies, 1317 participants; high-quality evidence). Biochemotherapy had higher toxicity rates (RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.61, 2 studies, 631 participants; high-quality evidence).With regard to immune checkpoint inhibitors, anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies plus chemotherapy probably increased the chance of progression-free survival compared to chemotherapy alone (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.92, 1 study, 502 participants; moderate-quality evidence), but may not significantly improve overall survival (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.01, 2 studies, 1157 participants; low-quality evidence). Compared to chemotherapy alone, anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies is likely to be associated with higher toxicity rates (RR 1.69, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.42, 2 studies, 1142 participants; moderate-quality evidence).Compared to chemotherapy, anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies (immune checkpoint inhibitors) improved overall survival (HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.48, 1 study, 418 participants; high-quality evidence) and probably improved progression-free survival (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.61, 2 studies, 957 participants; moderate-quality evidence). Anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies may also result in less toxicity than chemotherapy (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.97, 3 studies, 1360 participants; low-quality evidence).Anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies performed better than anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies in terms of overall survival (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.66, 1 study, 764 participants; high-quality evidence) and progression-free survival (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.60, 2 studies, 1465 participants; high-quality evidence). Anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies may result in better toxicity outcomes than anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.91, 2 studies, 1465 participants; low-quality evidence).Compared to anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies alone, the combination of anti-CTLA4 plus anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies was associated with better progression-free survival (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.46, 2 studies, 738 participants; high-quality evidence). There may be no significant difference in toxicity outcomes (RR 1.57, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.92, 2 studies, 764 participants; low-quality evidence) (no data for overall survival were available).The class of small-molecule targeted drugs, BRAF inhibitors (which are active exclusively against BRAF-mutated melanoma), performed better than chemotherapy in terms of overall survival (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.57, 2 studies, 925 participants; high-quality evidence) and progression-free survival (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.34, 2 studies, 925 participants; high-quality evidence), and there may be no significant difference in toxicity (RR 1.27, 95% CI 0.48 to 3.33, 2 studies, 408 participants; low-quality evidence).Compared to chemotherapy, MEK inhibitors (which are active exclusively against BRAF-mutated melanoma) may not significantly improve overall survival (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.25, 3 studies, 496 participants; low-quality evidence), but they probably lead to better progression-free survival (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.80, 3 studies, 496 participants; moderate-quality evidence). However, MEK inhibitors probably have higher toxicity rates (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.41, 1 study, 91 participants; moderate-quality evidence).Compared to BRAF inhibitors, the combination of BRAF plus MEK inhibitors was associated with better overall survival (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.82, 4 studies, 1784 participants; high-quality evidence). BRAF plus MEK inhibitors was also probably better in terms of progression-free survival (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.71, 4 studies, 1784 participants; moderate-quality evidence), and there appears likely to be no significant difference in toxicity (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.20, 4 studies, 1774 participants; moderate-quality evidence).Compared to chemotherapy, the combination of chemotherapy plus anti-angiogenic drugs was probably associated with better overall survival (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.81; moderate-quality evidence) and progression-free survival (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.92; moderate-quality evidence). There may be no difference in terms of toxicity (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.09 to 5.32; low-quality evidence). All results for this comparison were based on 324 participants from 2 studies.Network meta-analysis focused on chemotherapy as the common comparator and currently approved treatments for which high- to moderate-quality evidence of efficacy (as represented by treatment effect on progression-free survival) was available (based on the above results) for: biochemotherapy (with both interferon-alpha and interleukin-2); anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies; anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies; anti-CTLA4 plus anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies; BRAF inhibitors; MEK inhibitors, and BRAF plus MEK inhibitors. Analysis (which included 19 RCTs and 7632 participants) generated 21 indirect comparisons.The best evidence (moderate-quality evidence) for progression-free survival was found for the following indirect comparisons:• both combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.51) and small-molecule targeted drugs (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.26) probably improved progression-free survival compared to chemotherapy;• both BRAF inhibitors (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.68) and combinations of small-molecule targeted drugs (HR 0.22, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.39) were probably associated with better progression-free survival compared to anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies;• biochemotherapy (HR 2.81, 95% CI 1.76 to 4.51) probably lead to worse progression-free survival compared to BRAF inhibitors;• the combination of small-molecule targeted drugs probably improved progression-free survival (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.68) compared to anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies;• both biochemotherapy (HR 5.05, 95% CI 3.01 to 8.45) and MEK inhibitors (HR 3.16, 95% CI 1.77 to 5.65) were probably associated with worse progression-free survival compared to the combination of small-molecule targeted drugs; and• biochemotherapy was probably associated with worse progression-free survival (HR 2.81, 95% CI 1.54 to 5.11) compared to the combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors.The best evidence (moderate-quality evidence) for toxicity was found for the following indirect comparisons:• combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors (RR 3.49, 95% CI 2.12 to 5.77) probably increased toxicity compared to chemotherapy;• combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors probably increased toxicity (RR 2.50, 95% CI 1.20 to 5.20) compared to BRAF inhibitors;• the combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors probably increased toxicity (RR 3.83, 95% CI 2.59 to 5.68) compared to anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies; and• biochemotherapy was probably associated with lower toxicity (RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.71) compared to the combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors.Network meta-analysis-based ranking suggested that the combination of BRAF plus MEK inhibitors is the most effective strategy in terms of progression-free survival, whereas anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies are associated with the lowest toxicity.Overall, the risk of bias of the included trials can be considered as limited. When considering the 122 trials included in this review and the seven types of bias we assessed, we performed 854 evaluations only seven of which (< 1%) assigned high risk to six trials. We found high-quality evidence that many treatments offer better efficacy than chemotherapy, especially recently implemented treatments, such as small-molecule targeted drugs, which are used to treat melanoma with specific gene mutations. Compared with chemotherapy, biochemotherapy (in this case, chemotherapy combined with both interferon-alpha and interleukin-2) and BRAF inhibitors improved progression-free survival; BRAF inhibitors (for BRAF-mutated melanoma) and anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies improved overall survival. However, there was no difference between polychemotherapy and monochemotherapy in terms of achieving progression-free survival and overall survival. Biochemotherapy did not significantly improve overall survival and has higher toxicity rates compared with chemotherapy.There was some evidence that combined treatments worked better than single treatments: anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies, alone or with anti-CTLA4, improved progression-free survival compared with anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies alone. Anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies performed better than anti-CTLA4 monoclonal antibodies in terms of overall survival, and a combination of BRAF plus MEK inhibitors was associated with better overall survival for BRAF-mutated melanoma, compared to BRAF inhibitors alone.The combination of BRAF plus MEK inhibitors (which can only be administered to people with BRAF-mutated melanoma) appeared to be the most effective treatment (based on results for progression-free survival), whereas anti-PD1 monoclonal antibodies appeared to be the least toxic, and most acceptable, treatment.Evidence quality was reduced due to imprecision, between-study heterogeneity, and substandard reporting of trials. Future research should ensure that those diminishing influences are addressed. Clinical areas of future investigation should include the longer-term effect of new therapeutic agents (i.e. immune checkpoint inhibitors and targeted therapies) on overall survival, as well as the combination of drugs used in melanoma treatment; research should also investigate the potential influence of biomarkers.

Survival Predictions of Ceramic Crowns Using Statistical Fracture Mechanics

PubMed Central

Nasrin, S.; Katsube, N.; Seghi, R.R.; Rokhlin, S.I.

2017-01-01

This work establishes a survival probability methodology for interface-initiated fatigue failures of monolithic ceramic crowns under simulated masticatory loading. A complete 3-dimensional (3D) finite element analysis model of a minimally reduced molar crown was developed using commercially available hardware and software. Estimates of material surface flaw distributions and fatigue parameters for 3 reinforced glass-ceramics (fluormica [FM], leucite [LR], and lithium disilicate [LD]) and a dense sintered yttrium-stabilized zirconia (YZ) were obtained from the literature and incorporated into the model. Utilizing the proposed fracture mechanics–based model, crown survival probability as a function of loading cycles was obtained from simulations performed on the 4 ceramic materials utilizing identical crown geometries and loading conditions. The weaker ceramic materials (FM and LR) resulted in lower survival rates than the more recently developed higher-strength ceramic materials (LD and YZ). The simulated 10-y survival rate of crowns fabricated from YZ was only slightly better than those fabricated from LD. In addition, 2 of the model crown systems (FM and LD) were expanded to determine regional-dependent failure probabilities. This analysis predicted that the LD-based crowns were more likely to fail from fractures initiating from margin areas, whereas the FM-based crowns showed a slightly higher probability of failure from fractures initiating from the occlusal table below the contact areas. These 2 predicted fracture initiation locations have some agreement with reported fractographic analyses of failed crowns. In this model, we considered the maximum tensile stress tangential to the interfacial surface, as opposed to the more universally reported maximum principal stress, because it more directly impacts crack propagation. While the accuracy of these predictions needs to be experimentally verified, the model can provide a fundamental understanding of the importance that pre-existing flaws at the intaglio surface have on fatigue failures. PMID:28107637

Theoretical aspects and modelling of cellular decision making, cell killing and information-processing in photodynamic therapy of cancer.

PubMed

Gkigkitzis, Ioannis

2013-01-01

The aim of this report is to provide a mathematical model of the mechanism for making binary fate decisions about cell death or survival, during and after Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) treatment, and to supply the logical design for this decision mechanism as an application of rate distortion theory to the biochemical processing of information by the physical system of a cell. Based on system biology models of the molecular interactions involved in the PDT processes previously established, and regarding a cellular decision-making system as a noisy communication channel, we use rate distortion theory to design a time dependent Blahut-Arimoto algorithm where the input is a stimulus vector composed of the time dependent concentrations of three PDT related cell death signaling molecules and the output is a cell fate decision. The molecular concentrations are determined by a group of rate equations. The basic steps are: initialize the probability of the cell fate decision, compute the conditional probability distribution that minimizes the mutual information between input and output, compute the cell probability of cell fate decision that minimizes the mutual information and repeat the last two steps until the probabilities converge. Advance to the next discrete time point and repeat the process. Based on the model from communication theory described in this work, and assuming that the activation of the death signal processing occurs when any of the molecular stimulants increases higher than a predefined threshold (50% of the maximum concentrations), for 1800s of treatment, the cell undergoes necrosis within the first 30 minutes with probability range 90.0%-99.99% and in the case of repair/survival, it goes through apoptosis within 3-4 hours with probability range 90.00%-99.00%. Although, there is no experimental validation of the model at this moment, it reproduces some patterns of survival ratios of predicted experimental data. Analytical modeling based on cell death signaling molecules has been shown to be an independent and useful tool for prediction of cell surviving response to PDT. The model can be adjusted to provide important insights for cellular response to other treatments such as hyperthermia, and diseases such as neurodegeneration.

Communicating the risk of injury in schoolboy rugby: using Poisson probability as an alternative presentation of the epidemiology.

PubMed

Parekh, Nikesh; Hodges, Stewart D; Pollock, Allyson M; Kirkwood, Graham

2012-06-01

The communication of injury risk in rugby and other sports is underdeveloped and parents, children and coaches need to be better informed about risk. A Poisson distribution was used to transform population based incidence of injury into average probabilities of injury to individual players. The incidence of injury in schoolboy rugby matches range from 7 to 129.8 injuries per 1000 player-hours; these rates translate to average probabilities of injury to a player of between 12% and 90% over a season. Incidence of injury and average probabilities of injury over a season should be published together in all future epidemiological studies on school rugby and other sports. More research is required on informing and communicating injury risks to parents, staff and children and how it affects monitoring, decision making and prevention strategies.

Advantages of a multi-state approach in surgical research: how intermediate events and risk factor profile affect the prognosis of a patient with locally advanced rectal cancer.

PubMed

Manzini, G; Ettrich, T J; Kremer, M; Kornmann, M; Henne-Bruns, D; Eikema, D A; Schlattmann, P; de Wreede, L C

2018-02-13

Standard survival analysis fails to give insight into what happens to a patient after a first outcome event (like first relapse of a disease). Multi-state models are a useful tool for analyzing survival data when different treatments and results (intermediate events) can occur. Aim of this study was to implement a multi-state model on data of patients with rectal cancer to illustrate the advantages of multi-state analysis in comparison to standard survival analysis. We re-analyzed data from the RCT FOGT-2 study by using a multi-state model. Based on the results we defined a high and low risk reference patient. Using dynamic prediction, we estimated how the survival probability changes as more information about the clinical history of the patient becomes available. A patient with stage UICC IIIc (vs UICC II) has a higher risk to develop distant metastasis (DM) or both DM and local recurrence (LR) if he/she discontinues chemotherapy within 6 months or between 6 and 12 months, as well as after the completion of 12 months CTx with HR 3.55 (p = 0.026), 5.33 (p = 0.001) and 3.37 (p < 0.001), respectively. He/she also has a higher risk to die after the development of DM (HR 1.72, p = 0.023). Anterior resection vs. abdominoperineal amputation means 63% risk reduction to develop DM or both DM and LR (HR 0.37, p = 0.003) after discontinuation of chemotherapy between 6 and 12 months. After development of LR, a woman has a 4.62 times higher risk to die (p = 0.006). A high risk reference patient has an estimated 43% 5-year survival probability at start of CTx, whereas for a low risk patient this is 79%. After the development of DM 1 year later, the high risk patient has an estimated 5-year survival probability of 11% and the low risk patient one of 21%. Multi-state models help to gain additional insight into the complex events after start of treatment. Dynamic prediction shows how survival probabilities change by progression of the clinical history.

Prehospital deaths from trauma: Are injuries survivable and do bystanders help?

PubMed

Oliver, G J; Walter, D P; Redmond, A D

2017-05-01

Deaths from trauma occurring in the prehospital phase of care are typically excluded from analysis in trauma registries. A direct historical comparison with Hussain and Redmond's study on preventable prehospital trauma deaths has shown that, two decades on, the number of potentially preventable deaths remains high. Using updated methodology, we aimed to determine the current nature, injury severity and survivability of traumatic prehospital deaths and to ascertain the presence of bystanders and their role following the point of injury including the frequency of first-aid delivery. We examined the Coroners' inquest files for deaths from trauma, occurring in the prehospital phase, over a three-year period in the Cheshire and Manchester (City), subsequently referred to as Manchester, Coronial jurisdictions. Injuries were scored using the Abbreviated-Injury-Scale (AIS-2008), Injury Severity Score (ISS) calculated and probability of survival estimated using the Trauma Audit and Research Network's outcome prediction model. One hundred and seventy-eight deaths were included in the study (one hundred and thirty-four Cheshire, forty-four Manchester). The World Health Organisation's recommendations consider those with a probability of survival between 25-50% as potentially preventable and those above 50% as preventable. The median ISS was 29 (Cheshire) and 27.5 (Manchester) with sixty-two (46%) and twenty-six (59%) respectively having a probability of survival in the potentially preventable and preventable ranges. Bystander presence during or immediately after the point of injury was 45% (Cheshire) and 39% (Manchester). Bystander intervention of any kind was 25% and 30% respectively. Excluding those found dead and those with a probability of survival less than 25%, bystanders were present immediately after the point of injury or "within minutes" in thirty-three of thirty-five (94%) Cheshire and ten of twelve (83%) Manchester. First aid of any form was attempted in fourteen of thirty-five (40%) and nine of twelve (75%) respectively. A high number of prehospital deaths from trauma occur with injuries that are potentially survivable, yet first aid intervention is infrequent. Following injury there is a potential window of opportunity for the provision of bystander assistance, particularly in the context of head injury, for simple first-aid manoeuvres to save lives. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

SU-E-J-65: Evaluation of a Radiation-Induced Cell Proliferation Probability Formula Using Monte Carlo Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watanabe, Y; Dahlman, E

2014-06-01

Purpose: To evaluate the analytic formula of the cell death probability after single fraction dose. Methods: Cancer cells endlessly divide, but radiation causes the cancer cells to die. Not all cells die right away after irradiation. Instead, they continue dividing for next few cell cycles before they stop dividing and die. At the end of every cell cycle, the cell decides if it undertakes the mitotic process with a certain probability, Pdiv, which is altered by the radiation. Previously, by using a simple analytic model of radiobiology experiments, we obtained a formula of Pdeath (= 1 − Pdiv). A questionmore » is if the proposed probability can reproduce the well-known survival data of the LQ model. In this study, we evaluated the formula by doing a Monte Carlo simulation of the cell proliferation process. Starting with Ns seed cells, the cell proliferation process was simulated for N generations or until all cells die. We counted the number of living cells at the end. Assuming that the cell colony survived when more than Nc cells were still alive, the surviving fraction S was estimated. We compared the S vs. dose, or S-D curve, with the LQ model. Results: The results indicated that our formula does not reproduce the experimentally observed S-D curve without selecting appropriate α and α/β. With parameter optimization, there was a fair agreement between the MC result and the LQ curve of dose lower than 20Gy. However, the survival fraction of MC decreased much faster in comparison to the LQ data for doses higher than 20 Gy. Conclusion: This study showed that the previously derived probability of cell death per cell cycle is not sufficiently accurate to replicate common radiobiological experiments. The formula must be modified by considering its cell cycle dependence and some other unknown effects.« less

Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2002-01-01

Existing models for ring recovery and recapture data analysis treat temporal variations in annual survival probability (S) as fixed effects. Often there is no explainable structure to the temporal variation in S1,..., Sk; random effects can then be a useful model: Si = E(S) + ??i. Here, the temporal variation in survival probability is treated as random with average value E(??2) = ??2. This random effects model can now be fit in program MARK. Resultant inferences include point and interval estimation for process variation, ??2, estimation of E(S) and var (E??(S)) where the latter includes a component for ??2 as well as the traditional component for v??ar(S??\\S??). Furthermore, the random effects model leads to shrinkage estimates, Si, as improved (in mean square error) estimators of Si compared to the MLE, S??i, from the unrestricted time-effects model. Appropriate confidence intervals based on the Si are also provided. In addition, AIC has been generalized to random effects models. This paper presents results of a Monte Carlo evaluation of inference performance under the simple random effects model. Examined by simulation, under the simple one group Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, are issues such as bias of ??s2, confidence interval coverage on ??2, coverage and mean square error comparisons for inference about Si based on shrinkage versus maximum likelihood estimators, and performance of AIC model selection over three models: Si ??? S (no effects), Si = E(S) + ??i (random effects), and S1,..., Sk (fixed effects). For the cases simulated, the random effects methods performed well and were uniformly better than fixed effects MLE for the Si.

Institutional learning curve of cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemoperfusion for peritoneal malignancies.

PubMed

Polanco, Patricio M; Ding, Ying; Knox, Jordan M; Ramalingam, Lekshmi; Jones, Heather; Hogg, Melissa E; Zureikat, Amer H; Holtzman, Matthew P; Pingpank, James; Ahrendt, Steven; Zeh, Herbert J; Bartlett, David L; Choudry, Haroon A

2015-05-01

Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemoperfusion (HIPEC) is routinely used to treat certain peritoneal carcinomatoses (PC), but it can be associated with relatively high complication rates, prolonged hospital length of stay, and potential mortality. Our objective was to determine the learning curve (LC) of CRS/HIPEC in our high-volume institution. A total of 370 patients with PC from mucinous appendiceal neoplasms (MAN = 282), malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPM = 60), and gastric cancer (GC = 24) were studied. Outcomes analyzed included incomplete cytoreduction (IC), severe morbidity (SM), 60-day mortality, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio test (RA-SPRT) was employed to assess the LC of CRS/HIPEC for IC and SM using prespecified odds ratio (OR) boundaries derived from previously published data. Risk adjusted-cumulative average probability (RA-CAP) was used to analyze 1-year PFS and 2-year OS. Complete cytoreduction, severe morbidity, and 60-day mortality were 84.2, 30, and 1.9 % respectively. Higher simplified peritoneal cancer index was the major independent risk factor for IC, whereas high-grade histology, IC, and diagnosis of MPM and GC (compared with MAN) were predictors of SM after CRS/HIPEC (p < 0.05). RA-SPRT showed that approximately 180 cases are needed to achieve the lowest risk of IC and SM. Ninety cases were needed to achieve a steady 1-year PFS and 2-year OS in RA-CAP plots. The completeness of cytoreduction, morbidity, and mortality rates for CRS/HIPEC at our institution are comparable to previously reported data. Approximately 180 and 90 procedures are required to improve operative and oncologic outcomes respectively.

Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

1995-01-01

We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

Survival and growth of black walnut families after 7 years in West Virginia

Treesearch

G. W. Wendel; Donald E. Dorn; Donald E. Dorn

1985-01-01

Average survival, 7-year stem diameter, and stem diameter growth differed significantly among 34 black walnut families planted in West Virginia. Average total height, height growth, and diameter at breast height were not significantly different among families. Families were from seed collected in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Tennessee. The 7-year...

Evaluation of immunogenicity and efficacy of anthrax vaccine adsorbed for postexposure prophylaxis.

PubMed

Ionin, Boris; Hopkins, Robert J; Pleune, Brett; Sivko, Gloria S; Reid, Frances M; Clement, Kristin H; Rudge, Thomas L; Stark, Gregory V; Innes, Alison; Sari, Suha; Guina, Tina; Howard, Cris; Smith, Jeffrey; Swoboda, M Lisa; Vert-Wong, Ekaterina; Johnson, Virginia; Nabors, Gary S; Skiadopoulos, Mario H

2013-07-01

Antimicrobials administered postexposure can reduce the incidence or progression of anthrax disease, but they do not protect against the disease resulting from the germination of spores that may remain in the body after cessation of the antimicrobial regimen. Such additional protection may be achieved by postexposure vaccination; however, no anthrax vaccine is licensed for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). In a rabbit PEP study, animals were subjected to lethal challenge with aerosolized Bacillus anthracis spores and then were treated with levofloxacin with or without concomitant intramuscular (i.m.) vaccination with anthrax vaccine adsorbed (AVA) (BioThrax; Emergent BioDefense Operations Lansing LLC, Lansing, MI), administered twice, 1 week apart. A significant increase in survival rates was observed among vaccinated animals compared to those treated with antibiotic alone. In preexposure prophylaxis studies in rabbits and nonhuman primates (NHPs), animals received two i.m. vaccinations 1 month apart and were challenged with aerosolized anthrax spores at day 70. Prechallenge toxin-neutralizing antibody (TNA) titers correlated with animal survival postchallenge and provided the means for deriving an antibody titer associated with a specific probability of survival in animals. In a clinical immunogenicity study, 82% of the subjects met or exceeded the prechallenge TNA value that was associated with a 70% probability of survival in rabbits and 88% probability of survival in NHPs, which was estimated based on the results of animal preexposure prophylaxis studies. The animal data provide initial information on protective antibody levels for anthrax, as well as support previous findings regarding the ability of AVA to provide added protection to B. anthracis-infected animals compared to antimicrobial treatment alone.

Bayesian regression analyses of radiation modality effects on pericardial and pleural effusion and survival in esophageal cancer.

PubMed

He, Liru; Chapple, Andrew; Liao, Zhongxing; Komaki, Ritsuko; Thall, Peter F; Lin, Steven H

2016-10-01

To evaluate radiation modality effects on pericardial effusion (PCE), pleural effusion (PE) and survival in esophageal cancer (EC) patients. We analyzed data from 470 EC patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Bayesian semi-competing risks (SCR) regression models were fit to assess effects of radiation modality and prognostic covariates on the risks of PCE and PE, and death either with or without these preceding events. Bayesian piecewise exponential regression models were fit for overall survival, the time to PCE or death, and the time to PE or death. All models included propensity score as a covariate to correct for potential selection bias. Median times to onset of PCE and PE after RT were 7.1 and 6.1months for IMRT, and 6.5 and 5.4months for 3DCRT, respectively. Compared to 3DCRT, the IMRT group had significantly lower risks of PE, PCE, and death. The respective probabilities of a patient being alive without either PCE or PE at 3-years and 5-years were 0.29 and 0.21 for IMRT compared to 0.13 and 0.08 for 3DCRT. In the SCR regression analyses, IMRT was associated with significantly lower risks of PCE (HR=0.26) and PE (HR=0.49), and greater overall survival (probability of beneficial effect (pbe)>0.99), after controlling for known clinical prognostic factors. IMRT reduces the incidence and postpones the onset of PCE and PE, and increases survival probability, compared to 3DCRT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Fish Movements, Migration Patterns, and Population Abundance with Streamwidth PIT Tag Interrogation Systems, Final Report 2002.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zydlewski, Gayle; Winter, Christiane; McClanahan, Dee

2003-02-01

Two remote Streamwidth PIT tag Interrogation systems (SPIs) were operated continuously for over one year to test the feasibility of these systems for generating movement, migration, survival and smolt production estimates for salmonids. A total of 1,588 juvenile (< 100 mm FL) naturally produced salmonids (7 coho salmon, 482 cutthroat trout, and 1,099 steelhead) were PIT tagged above the upstream-most SPI (9 sites approximately 1 linear km each) in Fall 2001. Age at tagging for wild caught cutthroat and steelhead was 1 year. SPIs were operating before any PIT tagged fish were released in the creek. Over 390,000 detections weremore » recorded from October 2001 to 31 July 2002. Efficiencies were site dependent, but overall detection efficiency for the creek was 97% with 95% confidence intervals of 91-100%. PIT tag detection efficiency ranged from 55-100% depending on the SPI and varied throughout the year with average efficiencies of 73% and 89%. SPI efficiency of PIT tag detection was not completely dependent on electronics noise levels or environmental conditions. Fish from all tagging locations were detected at the SPIs. Steelhead and cutthroat trout were primarily detected moving in the Spring (April-June) coincident with the anticipated smolt migration. Steelhead were also detected moving past SPIs at lower numbers in the Fall and Winter. Travel time between SPIs (downstream movement) was highly dependent on time of year. Travel time in the Spring was significantly faster (34.4 {+-} 7.0 hours) for all species than during any other time of year (763.1 {+-} 267.0 hours). Steelhead and cutthroat migrating in the Spring were the same age as those that did not migrate in the Spring. Peak of steelhead migration recorded at the two SPIs was 5/11 and 5/12 and the peak in the screw trap was recorded on 5/17. Steelhead smolt production estimates using SPIs (3,802 with 95% confidence intervals of 3,440 - 4,245) was similar to those using more standard screw trap methods (approximately 5,400). All species used the faster moving/deeper section of the creek at both SPIs. A backpack PIT tag detector was also developed and used as another remote 'recapture' for additional accuracy in estimating population survival and recapture probability. This unit was used at an approximate efficiency of 24% to survey the creek after the Spring migration. Twenty-five individual fish were re-located. All PIT tag data were used to calculate survival and recapture probabilities using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber population model. Survival for steelhead was high and recapture probability depended greatly on season. Probability of recapture was highest in Spring (29.5%) and relatively low in all other seasons (< 7% in Fall, Winter, and Summer). Wild steelhead PIT tagged in the field and returned to the laboratory had a tag retention rate of 97.6%. A laboratory study was designed to determine the effects of 3-sized PIT tags (12 mm, 20 mm, and 23 mm) on survival and growth of individuals. Survival from surgical implantation of 23 mm PIT tags was > 98% for fish (coho salmon and steelhead). Retention of 23 mm PIT tags was 100% for coho salmon and 89% for steelhead. For both coho and steelhead, growth rates during the first month were affected by tagging, but by the end of 2 months growth effects equalized for all tag sizes. Life history characteristics quantified with SPI techniques are comparable to standard techniques. For example, peaks of Spring migration for steelhead and cutthroat were amazingly similar to those reported from the screw trap. These techniques will enable application of less laborious methods which are more accurate at estimating life history parameters.« less

Evaluation of Fish Movements, Migration Patterns and Populations Abundance with Streamwidth PIT Tag Interrogation Systems, Final Report 2002.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Casey, Sean

2003-02-01

Two remote Streamwidth PIT tag Interrogation systems (SPIs) were operated continuously for over one year to test the feasibility of these systems for generating movement, migration, survival and smolt production estimates for salmonids. A total of 1,588 juvenile (< 100 mm FL) naturally produced salmonids (7 coho salmon, 482 cutthroat trout, and 1,099 steelhead) were PIT tagged above the upstream-most SPI (9 sites approximately 1 linear km each) in Fall 2001. Age at tagging for wild caught cutthroat and steelhead was 1 year. SPIs were operating before any PIT tagged fish were released in the creek. Over 390,000 detections weremore » recorded from October 2001 to 31 July 2002. Efficiencies were site dependent, but overall detection efficiency for the creek was 97% with 95% confidence intervals of 91-100%. PIT tag detection efficiency ranged from 55-100% depending on the SPI and varied throughout the year with average efficiencies of 73% and 89%. SPI efficiency of PIT tag detection was not completely dependent on electronics noise levels or environmental conditions. Fish from all tagging locations were detected at the SPIs. Steelhead and cutthroat trout were primarily detected moving in the Spring (April-June) coincident with the anticipated smolt migration. Steelhead were also detected moving past SPIs at lower numbers in the Fall and Winter. Travel time between SPIs (downstream movement) was highly dependent on time of year. Travel time in the Spring was significantly faster (34.4 {+-} 7.0 hours) for all species than during any other time of year (763.1 {+-} 267.0 hours). Steelhead and cutthroat migrating in the Spring were the same age as those that did not migrate in the Spring. Peak of steelhead migration recorded at the two SPIs was 5/11 and 5/12 and the peak in the screw trap was recorded on 5/17. Steelhead smolt production estimates using SPIs (3,802 with 95% confidence intervals of 3,440-4,245) was similar to those using more standard screw trap methods (approximately 5,400). All species used the faster moving/deeper section of the creek at both SPIs. A backpack PIT tag detector was also developed and used as another remote ''recapture'' for additional accuracy in estimating population survival and recapture probability. This unit was used at an approximate efficiency of 24% to survey the creek after the Spring migration. Twenty-five individual fish were re-located. All PIT tag data were used to calculate survival and recapture probabilities using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber population model. Survival for steelhead was high and recapture probability depended greatly on season. Probability of recapture was highest in Spring (29.5%) and relatively low in all other seasons (< 7% in Fall, Winter, and Summer). Wild steelhead PIT tagged in the field and returned to the laboratory had a tag retention rate of 97.6%. A laboratory study was designed to determine the effects of 3-sized PIT tags (12 mm, 20 mm, and 23 mm) on survival and growth of individuals. Survival from surgical implantation of 23 mm PIT tags was > 98% for fish (coho salmon and steelhead). Retention of 23 mm PIT tags was 100% for coho salmon and 89% for steelhead. For both coho and steelhead, growth rates during the first month were affected by tagging, but by the end of 2 months growth effects equalized for all tag sizes. Life history characteristics quantified with SPI techniques are comparable to standard techniques. For example, peaks of Spring migration for steelhead and cutthroat were amazingly similar to those reported from the screw trap. These techniques will enable application of less laborious methods which are more accurate at estimating life history parameters.« less

The use of recursive partitioning analysis grouping in patients with brain metastases from non-small-cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Gülbaş, Hülya; Erkal, Haldun Sükrü; Serin, Meltem

2006-04-01

This study evaluates the use of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) grouping in an attempt to predict the survival probabilities in patients with brain metastases from non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Seventy-two patients with brain metastases from NSCLC treated with radiation therapy were included in the study. Sixty-three patients were male and nine patients were female. Their median age was 57 years and their median Karnofsky performance status was 70. At the time of brain metastases, there was no evidence of the intrathoracic disease in 27 patients and the extrathoracic disease was limited to the intracranial disease in 42 patients. In accordance with RPA grouping, 12 patients were in Group 1, 24 patients were in Group 2, and 36 patients were in Group 3. Radiation therapy was delivered to the whole brain at a dose of 30 Gy in 10 fractions in most of the patients. The median survival time was 7 months for Group 1, 5 months for Group 2 and 3 months for Group 3. The survival probability at 1 year was 50% for Group 1, 26% for Group 2 and 14% for Group 3. This study presents evidence supporting the use of RPA grouping in an attempt to predict the survival probabilities in patients with brain metastases from NSCLC.

Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters

PubMed Central

Deng, Z. D.; Martinez, J. J.; Li, H.; Harnish, R. A.; Woodley, C. M.; Hughes, J. A.; Li, X.; Fu, T.; Lu, J.; McMichael, G. A.; Weiland, M. A.; Eppard, M. B.; Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, R. L.

2017-01-01

Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitter are key limiting factors. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first acoustic transmitter that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectable transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the proceeding generation of commercially-available JSATS transmitters tested concurrently. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable transmitter had a higher survival probability from release to each of eleven downstream detection arrays, because reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. The information gathered with this new technology is helping to evaluate the impacts of dams on fishes. PMID:28220850

Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters.

PubMed

Deng, Z D; Martinez, J J; Li, H; Harnish, R A; Woodley, C M; Hughes, J A; Li, X; Fu, T; Lu, J; McMichael, G A; Weiland, M A; Eppard, M B; Skalski, J R; Townsend, R L

2017-02-21

Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitter are key limiting factors. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first acoustic transmitter that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectable transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the proceeding generation of commercially-available JSATS transmitters tested concurrently. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable transmitter had a higher survival probability from release to each of eleven downstream detection arrays, because reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. The information gathered with this new technology is helping to evaluate the impacts of dams on fishes.

Is an aggressive surgical approach to the patient with gastric lymphoma warranted?

PubMed Central

Rosen, C B; van Heerden, J A; Martin, J K; Wold, L E; Ilstrup, D M

1987-01-01

At the Mayo Clinic, from 1970 through 1979, 84 patients (52 males and 32 females) had abdominal exploration for primary gastric lymphoma. All patients were observed a minimum of 5 years or until death. The histologic findings for all 84 patients were reviewed. Forty-four patients had "curative resection," and 40 patients had either biopsy alone or a palliative procedure. The probability of surviving 5 years was 75% for patients after potentially curative resection and 32% for patients after biopsy and palliation (p less than 0.001). The operative mortality rate was 5% overall and 2% after potentially curative resection. Increased tumor size (p less than 0.02), increased tumor penetration (p less than 0.01), and lymph node involvement (p less than 0.02) decreased the probability of survival, whereas histologic classification did not affect survival. Radiation therapy after surgery did not significantly affect the survival rate for the entire group or the survival rate for patients who had potentially curative resection. Resectability was associated with increased patient survival--independent of other prognostic factors--when our experience was analyzed by the Cox proportional-hazards model (p less than 0.005). It was concluded that an aggressive surgical attitude in the treatment of primary gastric lymphoma is warranted. The role of radiotherapy remains in question. PMID:3592805

Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Z. D.; Martinez, J. J.; Li, H.; Harnish, R. A.; Woodley, C. M.; Hughes, J. A.; Li, X.; Fu, T.; Lu, J.; McMichael, G. A.; Weiland, M. A.; Eppard, M. B.; Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, R. L.

2017-02-01

Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitter are key limiting factors. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first acoustic transmitter that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectable transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the proceeding generation of commercially-available JSATS transmitters tested concurrently. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable transmitter had a higher survival probability from release to each of eleven downstream detection arrays, because reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. The information gathered with this new technology is helping to evaluate the impacts of dams on fishes.

A probabilistic cellular automata model for the dynamics of a population driven by logistic growth and weak Allee effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendonça, J. R. G.

2018-04-01

We propose and investigate a one-parameter probabilistic mixture of one-dimensional elementary cellular automata under the guise of a model for the dynamics of a single-species unstructured population with nonoverlapping generations in which individuals have smaller probability of reproducing and surviving in a crowded neighbourhood but also suffer from isolation and dispersal. Remarkably, the first-order mean field approximation to the dynamics of the model yields a cubic map containing terms representing both logistic and weak Allee effects. The model has a single absorbing state devoid of individuals, but depending on the reproduction and survival probabilities can achieve a stable population. We determine the critical probability separating these two phases and find that the phase transition between them is in the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour.

Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyslop, N.L.; Meyers, J.M.; Cooper, R.J.; Norton, Terry M.

2009-01-01

Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components.

PubMed

Rao, Nageswara S V; Ma, Chris Y T; Hausken, Kjell; He, Fei; Yau, David K Y; Zhuang, Jun

2018-05-03

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models.

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components

PubMed Central

Rao, Nageswara S. V.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; Hausken, Kjell; He, Fei; Yau, David K. Y.

2018-01-01

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models. PMID:29751588

Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data.

PubMed

Buderman, Frances E; Diefenbach, Duane R; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S; Wallingford, Bret D

2014-04-01

The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50-100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo, to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buderman, Frances E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2014-01-01

The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50–100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo,to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

Platform-Switching for Cemented Versus Screwed Fixed Dental Prostheses: Reliability and Failure Modes: An In Vitro Study.

PubMed

Anchieta, Rodolfo Brunieira; Machado, Lucas Silveira; Hirata, Ronaldo; Bonfante, Estevam Augusto; Coelho, Paulo G

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of survival of cemented and screwed three-unit implant-supported fixed dental prostheses (ISFDP) using different implant-abutment horizontal matching configurations (regular vs switching platforms). One hundred and sixty-eight implants with internal hexagon connection (4 mm diameter, 10 mm length, Emfils; Colosso Evolution System, Itú, SP, Brazil) were selected for this study according to the horizontal implant-abutment matching configuration (regular or switching) and retention method and divided in four groups (n = 21 per group) as follows: 1) regular platform cemented (IRC); 2) or screw-retained (IRS); 3) switched-platform cemented (ISC); or 4) screw-retained (ISS). Regular and platform-switched abutments (Colosso evolution, 4 mm and 3.3 mm, respectively) were torqued, and 84 three-unit metal bridges were fabricated (first molar pontic). Implants were embedded in polymethyl-methacrylate resin and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Weibull distribution was used to determine the probability of survival for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 400 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals). Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used for fractographic analysis. The β values of 0.50, 1.19, 1.25, and 1.95 for groups IRC, IRS, ISC, and ISS respectively, indicated that fatigue accelerated the failure for all groups, except IRC. The cement-retained groups presented significantly higher probability of survival (IRC - 98%, ISC - 59%) than screw-retained groups (IRS - 23% and ISS - 0%). Screw-retained FDPs exclusively failed by abutment-screw fractures, whereas cement-retained presented implant/screw/abutment fractures. The probability of survival of cement-retained ISFDP was higher than screw-retained, irrespective of implant-abutment horizontal configuration. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiple Diseases in Carrier Probability Estimation: Accounting for Surviving All Cancers Other than Breast and Ovary in BRCAPRO

PubMed Central

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Blackford, Amanda; Chen, Sining; Parmigiani, Giovanni

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. PMID:18407567

Multiple diseases in carrier probability estimation: accounting for surviving all cancers other than breast and ovary in BRCAPRO.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Blackford, Amanda; Chen, Sining; Parmigiani, Giovanni

2008-09-30

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 families from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO's concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p=0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35 to 39 per cent (p<10(-6)) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability<10 per cent. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2010, Featuring Prevalence of Comorbidity and Impact on Survival among Persons with Lung, Colorectal, Breast or Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Noone, Anne-Michelle; Mariotto, Angela B.; Simard, Edgar P.; Boscoe, Francis P.; Henley, S. Jane; Jemal, Ahmedin; Cho, Hyunsoon; Anderson, Robert N.; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie R.; Ward, Elizabeth M.

2014-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updates on cancer incidence and death rates and trends in these outcomes for the U.S. This year’s report includes the prevalence of comorbidity at time of first cancer diagnosis among patients with lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer and the survival among cancer patients based on comorbidity level. Methods Data on cancer incidence were obtained from NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and on mortality from CDC. Long- (1975/92-2010) and short- (2001-2010) term trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancers among men and among women were examined by joinpoint analysis. Through linkage with Medicare claims, the prevalence of comorbidity among cancer patients diagnosed between 1992 through 2005 residing in 11 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) areas were estimated and compared to those among a 5% random sample of cancer-free Medicare beneficiaries. Among cancer patients, survival and the probabilities of dying of their cancer and of other causes by comorbidity level, age, and stage were calculated. Results Death rates continued to decline for all cancers combined for men and women of all major racial and ethnic groups and for most major cancer sites; rates for both sexes combined decreased by 1.5% per year from 2001 through 2010. Overall incidence rates decreased in men and stabilized in women. The prevalence of comorbidity was similar among cancer-free Medicare beneficiaries (31.8%), breast cancer patients (32.2%), and prostate cancer patients (30.5%), highest among lung cancer patients (52.8%), and intermediate among colorectal cancer patients (40.7%). Among all cancer patients and especially for patients diagnosed with local and regional disease, age and comorbidity level were important influences on the probability of dying of other causes and consequently on overall survival. For patients diagnosed with distant disease, the probability of dying of cancer was much higher than the probability of dying of other causes, and age and comorbidity had a smaller effect on overall survival. Conclusions Cancer death rates in the U.S. continue to decline. Estimates of survival that include the probability of dying of cancer and other causes stratified by comorbidity level, age and stage can provide important information to facilitate treatment decisions. PMID:24343171

Overwintering biology and limits of cold tolerance in larvae of pistachio twig borer, Kermania pistaciella.

PubMed

Mollaei, M; Izadi, H; Šimek, P; Koštál, V

2016-08-01

Pistachio twig borer, Kermania pistaciella is an important pest of pistachio trees. It has an univoltine life-cycle and its larvae tunnel and feed inside pistachio twigs for almost 10 months each year. The last larval instars overwinter inside the twigs. Survival/mortality associated with low temperatures during overwintering stage is currently unknown. We found that overwintering larvae of the Rafsanjan (Iran) population of K. pistaciella rely on maintaining a stably high supercooling capacity throughout the cold season. Their supercooling points (SCPs) ranged between -19.4 and -22.7°C from October to February. Larvae were able to survive 24 h exposures to -15°C anytime during the cold season. During December and January, larvae were undergoing quiescence type of dormancy caused probably by low ambient temperatures and/or changes in host tree physiology (tree dormancy). Larvae attain highest cold tolerance (high survival at -20°C) during dormancy, which offers them sufficient protection against geographically and ecologically relevant cold spells. High cold tolerance during dormancy was not associated with accumulation of any low-molecular mass cryoprotective substances. The SCP sets the limit of cold tolerance in pistachio twig borer, meaning that high mortality of overwintering populations can be expected only in the regions or years where or when the temperatures fall below the average larval SCP (i.e., below -20°C). Partial mortality can be expected also when temperatures repeatedly drop close to the SCP on a diurnal basis.

Cost-effectiveness of stereotactic radiosurgery with and without whole-brain radiotherapy for the treatment of newly diagnosed brain metastases.

PubMed

Hall, Matthew D; McGee, James L; McGee, Mackenzie C; Hall, Kevin A; Neils, David M; Klopfenstein, Jeffrey D; Elwood, Patrick W

2014-12-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone is increasingly used in patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery used together with whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) reduces intracranial failure rates, but this combination also causes greater neurocognitive toxicity and does not improve survival. Critics of SRS alone contend that deferring WBRT results in an increased need for salvage therapy and in higher costs. The authors compared the cost-effectiveness of treatment with SRS alone, SRS and WBRT (SRS+WBRT), and surgery followed by SRS (S+SRS) at the authors' institution. The authors retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 289 patients in whom brain metastases were newly diagnosed and who were treated between May 2001 and December 2007. Overall survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate proportional hazards analysis (MVA) was used to identify factors associated with overall survival. Survival data were complete for 96.2% of patients, and comprehensive data on the resource use for imaging, hospitalizations, and salvage therapies were available from the medical records. Treatment costs included the cost of initial and all salvage therapies for brain metastases, hospitalizations, management of complications, and imaging. They were computed on the basis of the 2007 Medicare fee schedule from a payer perspective. Average treatment cost and average cost per month of median survival were compared. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the impact of variations in key cost variables. No significant differences in overall survival were observed among patients treated with SRS alone, SRS+WBRT, or S+SRS with respective median survival of 9.8, 7.4, and 10.6 months. The MVA detected a significant association of overall survival with female sex, Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, primary tumor control, absence of extracranial metastases, and number of brain metastases. Salvage therapy was required in 43% of SRS-alone and 26% of SRS+WBRT patients (p < 0.009). Despite an increased need for salvage therapy, the average cost per month of median survival was $2412 per month for SRS alone, $3220 per month for SRS+WBRT, and $4360 per month for S+SRS (p < 0.03). Compared with SRS+WBRT, SRS alone had an average incremental cost savings of $110 per patient. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the average treatment cost of SRS alone remained less than or was comparable to SRS+WBRT over a wide range of costs and treatment efficacies. Despite an increased need for salvage therapy, patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases treated with SRS alone have similar overall survival and receive more cost-effective care than those treated with SRS+WBRT. Compared with SRS+WBRT, initial management with SRS alone does not result in a higher average cost.

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Antonino, Matteo; Neve, Viviana; Amoruso, Annabianca; Crucinio, Nicola; Di Leo, Alfredo; Barone, Michele

2015-10-01

Survival estimates are commonly reported as survival from the first observation, but future survival probability changes based on the survival time already accumulated after therapy, otherwise known as conditional survival (CS). The aim of the study was to describe CS according to different prognostic variables in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Data on 125 very early/early HCC patients treated with RFA between 1999 and 2007 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed by means of Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. The 5-year CS was calculated with stratification by several predictors for patients who had already survived up to 5 years from diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) was 72 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-86). Age, Child-Pugh (CP), α-fetoprotein (AFP), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score and type of recurrence (early vs late) were significant predictors of OS. The 5-year CS rates of the entire study cohort assessed at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years from the treatment were 49%, 48%, 30% and 34%, respectively. Subgroup analysis confirmed age and CP as significant predictors of CS at all time points, while the CS of subgroups stratified by AFP and CLIP did not differ significantly from the 3rd year after RFA onward, as more advanced patients had probably escaped early recurrence. CS analysis showed that the impact of different variables influencing OS is not linear over time after RFA. Information derived from the study can improve the current management of HCC patients. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap.

PubMed

Popescu, Ioana; Duffy, Erin; Mendelsohn, Joshua; Escarce, José J

2018-01-01

To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association. This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35-75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009-2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009-2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White-Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators. Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES) assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated. White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES) to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap.

Parent–offspring resemblance in colony-specific adult survival of cliff swallows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Charles R.; Roche, Erin A.; Brown, Mary Bomberger

2015-01-01

Survival is a key component of fitness. Species that occupy discrete breeding colonies with different characteristics are often exposed to varying costs and benefits associated with group size or environmental conditions, and survival is an integrative net measure of these effects. We investigated the extent to which survival probability of adult (≥1-year old) cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) occupying different colonies resembled that of their parental cohort and thus whether the natal colony had long-term effects on individuals. Individuals were cross-fostered between colonies soon after hatching and their presence as breeders monitored at colonies in the western Nebraska study area for the subsequent decade. Colony-specific adult survival probabilities of offspring born and reared in the same colony, and those cross-fostered away from their natal colony soon after birth, were positively and significantly related to subsequent adult survival of the parental cohort from the natal colony. This result held when controlling for the effect of natal colony size and the age composition of the parental cohort. In contrast, colony-specific adult survival of offspring cross-fostered to a site was unrelated to that of their foster parent cohort or to the cohort of non-fostered offspring with whom they were reared. Adult survival at a colony varied inversely with fecundity, as measured by mean brood size, providing evidence for a survival–fecundity trade-off in this species. The results suggest some heritable variation in adult survival, likely maintained by negative correlations between fitness components. The study provides additional evidence that colonies represent non-random collections of individuals.

Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, Rick D.; Lambert, Brad A.

2010-01-01

5. Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.

A national survey of the impact of rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy on health-care workers in Malawi: effects on human resources and survival.

PubMed

Makombe, Simon D; Jahn, Andreas; Tweya, Hannock; Chuka, Stuart; Yu, Joseph Kwong-Leung; Hochgesang, Mindy; Aberle-Grasse, John; Pasulani, Olesi; Schouten, Erik J; Kamoto, Kelita; Harries, Anthony D

2007-11-01

To assess the human resources impact of Malawis rapidly growing antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme and balance this against the survival benefit of health-care workers who have accessed ART themselves. We conducted a national cross-sectional survey of the human resource allocation in all public-sector health facilities providing ART in mid-2006. We also undertook a survival analysis of health-care workers who had accessed ART in public and private facilities by 30 June 2006, using data from the national ART monitoring and evaluation system. By 30 June 2006, 59 581 patients had accessed ART from 95 public and 28 private facilities. The public sites provided ART services on 2.4 days per week on average, requiring 7% of the clinician workforce, 3% of the nursing workforce and 24% of the ward clerk workforce available at the facilities. We identified 1024 health-care workers in the national ART-patient cohort (2% of all ART patients). The probabilities for survival on ART at 6 months, 12 months and 18 months were 85%, 81% and 78%, respectively. An estimated 250 health-care workers lives were saved 12 months after ART initiation. Their combined work-time of more than 1000 staff-days per week was equivalent to the human resources required to provide ART at the national level. A large number of ART patients in Malawi are managed by a small proportion of the health-care workforce. Many health-care workers have accessed ART with good treatment outcomes. Currently, staffing required for ART balances against health-care workers lives saved through treatment, although this may change in the future.

Age at vaccination may influence response to sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) in Gunnison’s prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocke, Tonie E.; Tripp, Daniel W.; Lorenzsonn, Faye; Falendysz, Elizabeth A.; Smith, Susan; Williamson, Judy L.; Abbott, Rachel C.

2015-01-01

Gunnison’s prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) have been considered at greater risk from Yersinia pestis (plague) infection in the montane portion of their range compared to populations at lower elevations, possibly due to factors related to flea transmission of the bacteria or greater host susceptibility. To test the latter hypothesis and determine whether vaccination against plague with an oral sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) improved survival, we captured prairie dogs from a C. g. gunnisoni or “montane” population and a C. g. zuniensis or “prairie” population for vaccine efficacy and challenge studies. No differences (P = 0.63) were found in plague susceptibility in non-vaccinated animals between these two populations; however, vaccinates from the prairie population survived plague challenge at significantly higher rates (P < 0.01) than those from the montane population. Upon further analysis, we determined that response to immunization was most likely associated with differences in age, as the prairie group was much younger on average than the montane group. Vaccinates that were juveniles or young adults survived plague challenge at a much higher rate than adults (P < 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively), but no difference (P = 0.83) was detected in survival rates between control animals of different ages. These results suggest that host susceptibility is probably not related to the assumed greater risk from plague in the C. g. gunnisoni or “montane” populations of Gunnison’s prairie dogs, and that SPV could be a useful plague management tool for this species, particularly if targeted at younger cohorts.

The population ecology of two tropical trees, Brachychiton diversifolius (Malvaceae) and Bombax ceiba (Bombaceae), harvested by Indigenous woodcarvers in Arnhem Land, Australia.

PubMed

Koenig, Jennifer; Griffiths, Anthony

2012-10-01

We describe the population ecology of two tropical deciduous trees, Bombax ceiba leiocarpum A. Robyns and Brachychiton diversifolius R. Br., which are in high demand for Indigenous sculpture production in Arnhem Land, Australia. We monitored tagged populations of both species at two locations for 2 years to examine their reproduction, growth, and survival rates and their response to harvest. Both species have similar life histories: they reproduce during the dry season (June-November) producing a high seed load, seed predation was high, seeds did not survive in the soil past the following wet season to form a seed bank, and germination rates were low and variable for both species. Average annual circumference growth rates were 1.07 cm year(-1) for B. ceiba and 0.98 cm year(-1) for B. diversifolius, with most of the growth occurring during the early wet season. Most (65-88 %) of the harvested B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems coppiced. Coppice and stem size class were the main factors influencing tree growth rates with coppice stems growing up to six times faster than similar sized non-coppice stems. The survival of B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems was size class dependent and affected by local site factors (e.g. fire and other disturbances) so that the smaller size classes had a low probability of survival. Given the resprouting potential of both species, their wild harvest is likely to have only minimal local impact on wild populations. However, further population modelling is required to determine whether the small and disjunct B. ceiba populations can sustain harvesting at current levels.

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

2009-01-01

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Estimating length of avian incubation and nestling stages in afrotropical forest birds from interval-censored nest records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Newmark, W.D.

2010-01-01

In the East Usambara Mountains in northeast Tanzania, research on the effects of forest fragmentation and disturbance on nest survival in understory birds resulted in the accumulation of 1,002 nest records between 2003 and 2008 for 8 poorly studied species. Because information on the length of the incubation and nestling stages in these species is nonexistent or sparse, our objectives in this study were (1) to estimate the length of the incubation and nestling stage and (2) to compute nest survival using these estimates in combination with calculated daily survival probability. Because our data were interval censored, we developed and applied two new statistical methods to estimate stage length. In the 8 species studied, the incubation stage lasted 9.6-21.8 days and the nestling stage 13.9-21.2 days. Combining these results with estimates of daily survival probability, we found that nest survival ranged from 6.0% to 12.5%. We conclude that our methodology for estimating stage lengths from interval-censored nest records is a reasonable and practical approach in the presence of interval-censored data. ?? 2010 The American Ornithologists' Union.

Immune challenge retards seasonal reproductive regression in rodents: evidence for terminal investment.

PubMed

Weil, Zachary M; Martin, Lynn B; Workman, Joanna L; Nelson, Randy J

2006-09-22

Animals must balance investments in different physiological activities to allow them to maximize fitness in the environments they inhabit. These adjustments among reproduction, growth and survival are mandated because of the competing high costs of each process. Seasonally breeding rodents generally bias their investments towards reproduction when environmental conditions are benign, but shift these investments towards processes that promote survival, including immune activity, when environmental conditions deteriorate. Because survival probability of non-tropical small mammals is generally low in winter, under certain circumstances, these animals may not allocate resources to survival mechanisms in an effort to produce as many offspring as possible in the face of increased probability of death. Such 'terminal investments' have been described in passerines, but there are few examples of such phenomena in small mammals. Here, we show that male Siberian hamsters (Phodopus sungorus) challenged with lipopolysaccharide (a component of gram-negative bacteria that activates the immune system) induced a small, but significant, retardation of seasonal regression of the reproductive system relative to saline-injected hamsters. This delayed reproductive regression likely reflects a strategy to maintain reproductive function when survival prospects are compromised by infection.

A Comparative Study of Automated Infrasound Detectors - PMCC and AFD with Analyst Review.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Junghyun; Hayward, Chris; Zeiler, Cleat

Automated detections calculated by the progressive multi-channel correlation (PMCC) method (Cansi, 1995) and the adaptive F detector (AFD) (Arrowsmith et al., 2009) are compared to the signals identified by five independent analysts. Each detector was applied to a four-hour time sequence recorded by the Korean infrasound array CHNAR. This array was used because it is composed of both small (<100 m) and large (~1000 m) aperture element spacing. The four hour time sequence contained a number of easily identified signals under noise conditions that have average RMS amplitudes varied from 1.2 to 4.5 mPa (1 to 5 Hz), estimated withmore » running five-minute window. The effectiveness of the detectors was estimated for the small aperture, large aperture, small aperture combined with the large aperture, and full array. The full and combined arrays performed the best for AFD under all noise conditions while the large aperture array had the poorest performance for both detectors. PMCC produced similar results as AFD under the lower noise conditions, but did not produce as dramatic an increase in detections using the full and combined arrays. Both automated detectors and the analysts produced a decrease in detections under the higher noise conditions. Comparing the detection probabilities with Estimated Receiver Operating Characteristic (EROC) curves we found that the smaller value of consistency for PMCC and the larger p-value for AFD had the highest detection probability. These parameters produced greater changes in detection probability than estimates of the false alarm rate. The detection probability was impacted the most by noise level, with low noise (average RMS amplitude of 1.7 mPa) having an average detection probability of ~40% and high noise (average RMS amplitude of 2.9 mPa) average detection probability of ~23%.« less

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

1999-01-01

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

1999-01-01

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of date from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes particularly regarding the trade-off between precison and potential bias o parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cartarius, Holger; Moiseyev, Nimrod; Department of Physics and Minerva Center for Nonlinear Physics of Complex Systems, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, 32000

The unique time signature of the survival probability exactly at the exceptional point parameters is studied here for the hydrogen atom in strong static magnetic and electric fields. We show that indeed the survival probability S(t)=|<{psi}(0)|{psi}(t)>|{sup 2} decays exactly as |1-at|{sup 2}e{sup -{Gamma}{sub E}{sub P}t/({Dirac_h}/2{pi})}, where {Gamma}{sub EP} is associated with the decay rate at the exceptional point and a is a complex constant depending solely on the initial wave packet that populates exclusively the two almost degenerate states of the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. This may open the possibility for a first experimental detection of exceptional points in a quantum system.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

PubMed

Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

2016-09-01

Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methodology to Estimate the Longitudinal Average Attributable Fraction of Guideline-recommended Medications for Death in Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Zhan, Yilei; Cohen, Andrew B.; Tinetti, Mary E.; Trentalange, Mark; McAvay, Gail

2016-01-01

Background: Persons with multiple chronic conditions receive multiple guideline-recommended medications to improve outcomes such as mortality. Our objective was to estimate the longitudinal average attributable fraction for 3-year survival of medications for cardiovascular conditions in persons with multiple chronic conditions and to determine whether heterogeneity occurred by age. Methods: Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey participants (N = 8,578) with two or more chronic conditions, enrolled from 2005 to 2009 with follow-up through 2011, were analyzed. We calculated the longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction for oral medications (beta blockers, renin–angiotensin system blockers, and thiazide diuretics) indicated for cardiovascular conditions (atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and hypertension), on survival adjusted for 18 participant characteristics. Models stratified by age (≤80 and >80 years) were analyzed to determine heterogeneity of both cardiovascular conditions and medications. Results: Heart failure had the greatest average attributable fraction (39%) for mortality. The fractional contributions of beta blockers, renin–angiotensin system blockers, and thiazides to improve survival were 10.4%, 9.3%, and 7.2% respectively. In age-stratified models, of these medications thiazides had a significant contribution to survival only for those aged 80 years or younger. The effects of the remaining medications were similar in both age strata. Conclusions: Most cardiovascular medications were attributed independently to survival. The two cardiovascular conditions contributing independently to death were heart failure and atrial fibrillation. The medication effects were similar by age except for thiazides that had a significant contribution to survival in persons younger than 80 years. PMID:26748093

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

PubMed

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from data can be used to learn from censored survival data in the presence of light censoring (up to 20%) by treating censored cases as event-free. Given intermediate or heavy censoring, the learnt models become tuned to the majority class and would thus require a different approach.

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2008-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented. PMID:18953423

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques.

PubMed

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2006-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented.

SU-E-T-352: Why Is the Survival Rate Low in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Z; Feng, Y; Rasmussen, K

2014-06-01

Purpose: Tumors are composed of a large number of clonogens that have the capability of indefinite reproduction. Even when there is complete clinical or radiographic regression of the gross tumor mass after treatment, tumor recurrence can occur if the clonogens are not completely eradicated by radiotherapy. This study was to investigate the colonogen number and its association with the tumor control probability (TCP) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCCA). Methods: A literature search was conducted to collect clinical information of patients with OSCCA, including the prescription dose, tumor volume and survival rate. The linear-quadratic (LQ) model was incorporated into TCPmore » model for clinical data analysis. The total dose ranged from 60 to 70 Gy and tumor volume ranged from 10 to 50 cc. The TCP was calculated for each group according to tumor size and dose. The least χ{sup 2} method was used to fit the TCP calculation to clinical data while other LQ model parameters (α, β) were adopted from the literature, due to the limited patient data. Results: A total of 190 patients with T2–T4 OSCCA were included. The association with HPV was not available for all the patients. The 3-year survival rate was about 82% for T2 squamous cell carcinoma and 40% for advanced tumors. Fitting the TCP model to the survival data, the average clonogen number was 1.56×10{sup 12}. For the prescription dose of 70 Gy, the calculated TCP ranged from 40% to 90% when the tumor volume varied from 10 to 50 cc. Conclusion: Our data suggests variation between the clonogen number and TCP in OSCCA. Tumors with larger colonogen number tend to have lower TCP and therefore dose escalation above 70 Gy may be indicated in order to improve the TCP and survival rate. Our result will require future confirmation with a large number of patients.« less

Modeling Stochastic Variability in the Numbers of Surviving Salmonella enterica, Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and Listeria monocytogenes Cells at the Single-Cell Level in a Desiccated Environment

PubMed Central

Koyama, Kento; Hokunan, Hidekazu; Hasegawa, Mayumi; Kawamura, Shuso

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Despite effective inactivation procedures, small numbers of bacterial cells may still remain in food samples. The risk that bacteria will survive these procedures has not been estimated precisely because deterministic models cannot be used to describe the uncertain behavior of bacterial populations. We used the Poisson distribution as a representative probability distribution to estimate the variability in bacterial numbers during the inactivation process. Strains of four serotypes of Salmonella enterica, three serotypes of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and one serotype of Listeria monocytogenes were evaluated for survival. We prepared bacterial cell numbers following a Poisson distribution (indicated by the parameter λ, which was equal to 2) and plated the cells in 96-well microplates, which were stored in a desiccated environment at 10% to 20% relative humidity and at 5, 15, and 25°C. The survival or death of the bacterial cells in each well was confirmed by adding tryptic soy broth as an enrichment culture. Changes in the Poisson distribution parameter during the inactivation process, which represent the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria, were described by nonlinear regression with an exponential function based on a Weibull distribution. We also examined random changes in the number of surviving bacteria using a random number generator and computer simulations to determine whether the number of surviving bacteria followed a Poisson distribution during the bacterial death process by use of the Poisson process. For small initial cell numbers, more than 80% of the simulated distributions (λ = 2 or 10) followed a Poisson distribution. The results demonstrate that variability in the number of surviving bacteria can be described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. IMPORTANCE We developed a model to enable the quantitative assessment of bacterial survivors of inactivation procedures because the presence of even one bacterium can cause foodborne disease. The results demonstrate that the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria was described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. Description of the number of surviving bacteria as a probability distribution rather than as the point estimates used in a deterministic approach can provide a more realistic estimation of risk. The probability model should be useful for estimating the quantitative risk of bacterial survival during inactivation. PMID:27940547

Modeling Stochastic Variability in the Numbers of Surviving Salmonella enterica, Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and Listeria monocytogenes Cells at the Single-Cell Level in a Desiccated Environment.

PubMed

Koyama, Kento; Hokunan, Hidekazu; Hasegawa, Mayumi; Kawamura, Shuso; Koseki, Shigenobu

2017-02-15

Despite effective inactivation procedures, small numbers of bacterial cells may still remain in food samples. The risk that bacteria will survive these procedures has not been estimated precisely because deterministic models cannot be used to describe the uncertain behavior of bacterial populations. We used the Poisson distribution as a representative probability distribution to estimate the variability in bacterial numbers during the inactivation process. Strains of four serotypes of Salmonella enterica, three serotypes of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, and one serotype of Listeria monocytogenes were evaluated for survival. We prepared bacterial cell numbers following a Poisson distribution (indicated by the parameter λ, which was equal to 2) and plated the cells in 96-well microplates, which were stored in a desiccated environment at 10% to 20% relative humidity and at 5, 15, and 25°C. The survival or death of the bacterial cells in each well was confirmed by adding tryptic soy broth as an enrichment culture. Changes in the Poisson distribution parameter during the inactivation process, which represent the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria, were described by nonlinear regression with an exponential function based on a Weibull distribution. We also examined random changes in the number of surviving bacteria using a random number generator and computer simulations to determine whether the number of surviving bacteria followed a Poisson distribution during the bacterial death process by use of the Poisson process. For small initial cell numbers, more than 80% of the simulated distributions (λ = 2 or 10) followed a Poisson distribution. The results demonstrate that variability in the number of surviving bacteria can be described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. We developed a model to enable the quantitative assessment of bacterial survivors of inactivation procedures because the presence of even one bacterium can cause foodborne disease. The results demonstrate that the variability in the numbers of surviving bacteria was described as a Poisson distribution by use of the model developed by use of the Poisson process. Description of the number of surviving bacteria as a probability distribution rather than as the point estimates used in a deterministic approach can provide a more realistic estimation of risk. The probability model should be useful for estimating the quantitative risk of bacterial survival during inactivation. Copyright © 2017 Koyama et al.

Correlated growth and survival of juvenile spectacled eiders: Evidence of habitat limitation?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Morse, Julie A.; Grand, James B.; Moran, Christine L.

2006-01-01

We studied the growth and survival of Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri) ducklings to 30 days of age along the lower Kashunuk River on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta from 1995 to 2000. We replicated this study at a second site, Kigigak Island, in 1999 and 2000. Age-adjusted estimates of duckling mass and survival at 30 days posthatching were highly variable. Duckling survival was consistently higher on Kigigak Island in 1999 and 2000, averaging 67%, while survival on the Kashunuk River averaged 45% during the same time period. Duckling survival was negatively related to hatching date. At the Kashunuk River site our data supported models that indicated age-adjusted mass varied with habitat type and declined with hatching date. Ducklings from Kashunuk River were heavier in 1999, while ducklings from Kigigak Island were heavier in 2000. However, we found a positive correlation between 30-day duckling survival and age-adjusted mass, suggesting a localized environmental effect on both parameters. We conclude that predation may be the proximate mechanism of mortality, but habitat conditions are likely the ultimate factors influencing duckling survival. Geographic variation in rates of duckling survival and apparent growth suggest that spatial heterogeneity in population vital rates is occurring at multiple levels.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models

PubMed Central

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal’s home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786–1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703–0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779–0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758–1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700–0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771–0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park’s population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions. PMID:26230262

Estimating prefledging survival: Allowing for brood mixing and dependence among brood mates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Thomas, Dana; Sedinger, James S.

1995-01-01

Estimates of juvenile survival from hatch to fledging provide important information on waterfowl productivity. We develop a model for estimating survival of young waterfowl from hatch to fledging. Our model enables interchange of individuals among broods and relaxes the assumption that individuals within broods have independent survival probabilities. The model requires repeated observations of individually identifiable adults and their offspring that are not individually identifiable. A modified Kaplan-Meier procedure (Pollock et al. 1989a,b) and a modified Mayfield procedure (Mayfield 1961, 1975; Johnson 1979) can be used under this general modeling framework, and survival rates and corresponding variances of the point estimators can be determined.

A survival model for individual shortleaf pine trees in even-aged natural stands

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Michael M. Huebschmann; Paul A. Murphy

2000-01-01

A model was developed that predicts the probability of survival for individual shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) trees growing in even-aged natural stands. Data for model development were obtained from the first two measurements of permanently established plots located in naturally occurring shortleaf pine forests on the Ouachita and...

Fall Chinook Salmon Survival and Supplementation Studies in the Snake River and Lower Snake River Reservoirs, 1995 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, John G.; Bjomn

1997-03-01

In 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the US Fish and Wildlife Service began a cooperative study to investigate migrational characteristics of subyearling fall chinook salmon in the Snake River. The primary study objectives were to (1) determine the feasibility of estimating detection and passage survival probabilities of natural and hatchery subyearling fall chinook salmon released in the Snake River (Chapter 1), (2) investigate relationships between detection and passage survival probabilities and travel time of subyearling fall chinook salmon and environmental influences such as flow volume and water temperature (Chapter 1), (3) monitor and evaluate dispersal of hatchery subyearlingmore » chinook salmon into nearshore rearing areas used by natural fish (Chapter 2), and (4) monitor and evaluate travel time to Lower Granite Dam, growth from release in the Snake River to recapture at Lower Granite Dam, ATPase levels of fish recaptured at Lower Granite Dam, and survival from release in the free-flowing Snake River to the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam (Chapter 2).« less

Patient education-level affects treatment allocation and prognosis in esophageal- and gastroesophageal junctional cancer in Sweden.

PubMed

Linder, Gustav; Sandin, Fredrik; Johansson, Jan; Lindblad, Mats; Lundell, Lars; Hedberg, Jakob

2018-02-01

Low socioeconomic status and poor education elevate the risk of developing esophageal- and junctional cancer. High education level also increases survival after curative surgery. The present study aimed to investigate associations, if any, between patient education-level and treatment allocation after diagnosis of esophageal- and junctional cancer and its subsequent impact on survival. A nation-wide cohort study was undertaken. Data from a Swedish national quality register for esophageal cancer (NREV) was linked to the National Cancer Register, National Patient Register, Prescribed Drug Register, Cause of Death Register and educational data from Statistics Sweden. The effect of education level (low; ≤9 years, intermediate; 10-12 years and high >12 years) on the probability of allocation to curative treatment was analyzed with logistic regression. The Kaplan-Meier-method and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of education on survival. A total of 4112 patients were included. In a multivariate logistic regression model, high education level was associated with greater probability of allocation to curative treatment (adjusted OR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.08-2.03, p = 0,014) as was adherence to a multidisciplinary treatment-conference (adjusted OR: 3.13, 95% CI: 2.40-4.08, p < 0,001). High education level was associated with improved survival in the patients allocated to curative treatment (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.69-0.99, p = 0,036). In this nation-wide cohort of esophageal- and junctional cancer patients, including data regarding many confounders, high education level was associated with greater probability of being offered curative treatment and improved survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

1994-04-01

A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at differentmore » areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.« less

Effects of mercury on health and first-year survival of free-ranging great egrets (Ardea albus) from southern Florida.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, M S; Williams, G E; Frederick, P C; Spalding, M G

1999-10-01

The objectives of this study were to determine whether elevated mercury (Hg) concentrations have a negative impact on the health and survival of nestling and juvenile free-ranging great egrets (Ardea albus) from southern Florida. During 1994, when health and survival was monitored in a cohort of young birds with naturally variable concentrations of Hg, packed cell volume was positively correlated with blood Hg concentrations, and high Hg concentration in blood was not related to the probability of surviving during the first 10.5 months of life. During 1995, 70 first-hatched great egret chicks were included in a Hg field-dosing experiment to compare the effects of elevated Hg on health and survival. Birds were dosed while in the nest orally every 2.5 days for 15 days with 0.5 mg of methyl mercury chloride (MeHgCl) for an estimated intake of 1.54 mg MeHgCl/kg food intake. These birds were compared with controls, which received an estimated 0.41 mg MeHgCl/kg food. No differences were observed in health parameters or in the probability of surviving during the first 8 months of age between egrets that were dosed with Hg and those that were not. A likely explanation for the lack of any effects on health and survival between both groups could be that chicks at this age were eliminating most of the dietary Hg through the production of new feathers.

Statin use and kidney cancer outcomes: A propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Nayan, Madhur; Finelli, Antonio; Jewett, Michael A S; Juurlink, David N; Austin, Peter C; Kulkarni, Girish S; Hamilton, Robert J

2016-11-01

Studies evaluating the association between statin use and survival outcomes in renal cell carcinoma have demonstrated conflicting results. Our objective was to evaluate this association in a large clinical cohort by using propensity score methods to reduce confounding from measured covariates. We performed a retrospective review of 893 patients undergoing nephrectomy for unilateral, M0 renal cell carcinoma between 2000 and 2014 at a tertiary academic center. Inverse probability of treatment weights were derived from a propensity score model based on clinical, surgical, and pathological characteristics. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between statin use and disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival in the sample weighted by the inverse probability of treatment weights. A secondary analysis was performed matching statin users 1:1 to statin nonusers on the propensity score. Of the 893 patients, 259 (29%) were on statins at the time of surgery. Median follow-up was 47 months (interquartile range: 20-80). Statin use was not significantly associated with disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.65-1.81), cancer-specific survival (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.40-2.01), or overall survival (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.55-1.44). Similar results were observed when using propensity score matching. The present study found no significant association between statin use and kidney cancer outcomes. Population-based studies are needed to further evaluate the role of statins in kidney cancer therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of radiomarking on prairie falcons: Attachment failures provide insights about survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenhof, Karen; Bates, Kirk K.; Fuller, Mark R.; Kochert, Michael N.; McKinley, James O.; Lukacs, Paul M.

2006-01-01

From 1999–2002, we attached satellite-received platform transmitter terminals (PTTs) to 40 adult female prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus) on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) in southwest Idaho. We used 3 variations of a backpack harness design that had been used previously on raptors. Each radiomarked falcon also received a color leg band with a unique alphanumeric code. We monitored survival of birds using radiotelemetry and searched for marked birds on their nesting grounds during breeding seasons after marking. Because 6 falcons removed their harnesses during the first year, we were able to compare survival rates of birds that shed PTTs with those that retained them. We describe a harness design that failed prematurely as well as designs that proved successful for long-term PTT attachment. We resighted 21 marked individuals on nesting areas 1–5 years after they were radiomarked and documented 13 mortalities of satellite-tracked falcons. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate apparent survival probability based on band resighting and telemetry data. Platform transmitter terminals had no short-term effects on falcons or their nesting success during the nesting season they were marked, but birds that shed their transmitters increased their probability of survival. Estimated annual survival for birds that shed their transmitters was 87% compared to 49% for birds wearing transmitters. We discuss possible reasons for differences in apparent survival rates and offer recommendations for future marking of falcons.

Effects of radio marking on prairie falcons: Attachment failures provide insights about survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenhof, Karen; Bates, Kirk K.; Fuller, Mark R.; Kochert, Michael N.; McKinley, J.O.; Lukacs, Paul M.

2006-01-01

From 1999-2002, we attached satellite-received platform transmitter terminals (PTTs) to 40 adult female prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus) on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) in southwest Idaho. We used 3 variations of a backpack harness design that had been used previously on raptors. Each radiomarked falcon also received a color leg band with a unique alphanumeric code. We monitored survival of birds using radiotelemetry and searched for marked birds on their nesting grounds during breeding seasons after marking. Because 6 falcons removed their harnesses during the first year, we were able to compare survival rates of birds that shed PTTs with those that retained them. We describe a harness design that failed prematurely as well as designs that proved successful for long-term PTT attachment. We resighted 21 marked individuals on nesting areas 1-5 years after they were radiomarked and documented 13 mortalities of satellite-tracked falcons. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate apparent survival probability based on band resighting and telemetry data. Platform transmitter terminals had no short-term effects on falcons or their nesting success during the nesting season they were marked, but birds that shed their transmitters increased their probability of survival. Estimated annual survival for birds that shed their transmitters was 87% compared to 49% for birds wearing transmitters. We discuss possible reasons for differences in apparent survival rates and offer recommendations for future marking of falcons.

21-Year Growth and Development of Baldcypress Planted on a Flood-Prone Site

Treesearch

Roger M. Krinard; Robert L. Johnson

1976-01-01

Baldcypress is a good species to plant on sites where prolonged flooding is common and few other species can survive. When planted on a site where flooding had repeatedly killed cottonwood plantations, cypress survival at age 21 averaged about 41 percent; average diameter was about 6.1 inches. Some of the cypress was suppressed by other hardwoods such as ash and...

Merriam's turkey poult survival in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Chad P. Lehman; Lester D. Flake; Mark A. Rumble; Daniel J. Thompson

2008-01-01

We investigated poult survival from hatching to 4 wks of age for Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) poults in the southern Black Hills, South Dakota. We estimated survival from 841 poults reared by 57 radio-marked wild turkeys (n = 52 adult females, n = 5 yearling females). Survival of poults to 4 wks posthatch averaged 33...

Outcomes following total laryngectomy for squamous cell carcinoma: one centre experience.

PubMed

Leong, S C; Kartha, S-S; Kathan, C; Sharp, J; Mortimore, S

2012-12-01

To evaluate the clinical outcomes of total laryngectomy (TL), complications and factors affecting survival. Retrospective review of hospital electronic database for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (SCCa). Large district general hospital in England, United Kingdom. Patients who had TL between January 1994 and January 2008. 5-year disease specific survival (DSS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Seventy-one patients were reviewed, of whom 38 (54%) had laryngeal SCCa and 33 (46%) hypopharyngeal SCCa. The overall mean survival period following TL was 42.4 months. The 5-year DSS and DFS was better for laryngeal SCCa compared to hypopharyngeal SCCa, although not statistically significant (P=0.090, P=0.54 respectively). Patients treated for laryngeal SCCa had a mean survival period of 47.5 months compared to 36.5 months for hypopharyngeal disease. Those who had laryngeal recurrence after primary radiotherapy (RT) demonstrated statistically better survival probability than those who had hypopharyngeal recurrence (P=0.011). Patients without cervical lymphadenopathy had statistically better survival (P=0.049). The most common early complication was related to the cardiorespiratory system. One fatal complication of erosion of the brachiocephalic artery due to the laryngectomy tube was noted. The most common late complication was neopharyngeal stenosis. The commonest cause of death was due to locoregional recurrence, followed by medical co-morbidities. Patients referred to specialised head and neck clinic had a better survival probability than those referred to a general ENT clinic (P=0.37). While there is increasing tendency towards laryngeal conservation, total laryngectomy remains a robust treatment option in selected patients. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Microwave ablation versus transarterial chemoembolization in large hepatocellular carcinoma: prospective analysis.

PubMed

Abdelaziz, Ashraf Omar; Nabeel, Mohamed Mahmoud; Elbaz, Tamer Mahmoud; Shousha, Hend Ibrahim; Hassan, Eman Medhat; Mahmoud, Sherif Hamdy; Rashed, Noha Ali; Ibrahim, Mostafa Mohamed; Abdelmaksoud, Ahmed Hosni

2015-04-01

Limited therapies are offered for large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It carries dismal prognosis and efforts tried changing its management from a palliative to a curative mode. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a palliative procedure that may have survival benefit if compared to non-management of large lesions. Microwave ablation (MWA) has emerged as a relatively new technique with promise of larger and faster ablation. We aim to evaluate the efficacy and safety of percutaneous MWA versus TACE for large tumors (5-7 cm) and to assess their effects on local tumor progression and survival. Sixty-four patients with large lesions are managed in our multidisciplinary HCC clinic and were divided into two groups treated either by MWA or TACE. Complete response rate, local recurrence, de novo lesions, and overall survival analysis are compared between both procedures. Both groups were comparable as regards the demographic and ultrasonographic features. MWA showed higher rates of complete ablation (75%) with fewer sessions, lower incidence of tumor recurrence (p = 0.02), development of de novo lesions (p = 0.03), occurrence of post-treatment ascites (p = 0.003), and higher survival rates (p = 0.04). The mean survival of the microwave group was 21.7 months with actuarial probability of survival at 12 and 18 months 78.2% and 68.4%, respectively. The mean survival of the TACE group was 13.7 months with actuarial probability of survival at 12 and 18 months being 52.4% and 28.6%, respectively. MWA showed better results than TACE in the management of large HCC lesions.

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Are pre-hospital deaths from accidental injury preventable?

PubMed Central

Hussain, L. M.; Redmond, A. D.

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To determine what proportion of pre-hospital deaths from accidental injury--deaths at the scene of the accident and those that occur before the person has reached hospital--are preventable. DESIGN--Retrospective study of all deaths from accidental injury that occurred between 1 January 1987 and 31 December 1990 and were reported to the coroner. SETTING--North Staffordshire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Injury severity score, probability of survival (probit analysis), and airway obstruction. RESULTS--There were 152 pre-hospital deaths from accidental injury (110 males and 42 females). In the same period there were 257 deaths in hospital from accidental injury (136 males and 121 females). The average age at death was 41.9 years for those who died before reaching hospital, and their average injury severity score was 29.3. In contrast, those who died in hospital were older and equally likely to be males or females. Important neurological injury occurred in 113 pre-hospital deaths, and evidence of airway obstruction in 59. Eighty six pre-hospital deaths were due to road traffic accidents, and 37 of these were occupants in cars. On the basis of the injury severity score and age, death was found to have been inevitable or highly likely in 92 cases. In the remaining 60 cases death had not been inevitable and airway obstruction was present in up to 51 patients with injuries that they might have survived. CONCLUSION--Death was potentially preventable in at least 39% of those who died from accidental injury before they reached hospital. Training in first aid should be available more widely, and particularly to motorists as many pre-hospital deaths that could be prevented are due to road accidents. PMID:8173428

The use of a sequential high dose recombinant interleukin 2 regimen after autologous bone marrow transplantation does not improve the disease free survival of patients with acute leukemia transplanted in first complete remission.

PubMed

Blaise, D; Attal, M; Pico, J L; Reiffers, J; Stoppa, A M; Bellanger, C; Molina, L; Nedellec, G; Vernant, J P; Legros, M; Gabus, R; Huguet, F; Brandely, M; Hercend, T; Olive, D; Maraninchi, D

1997-05-01

We report the outcome of 50 consecutive patients with CR1 acute leukemia (AML = 22; ALL = 28) treated with autologous BMT, after cyclophosphamide and TBI, followed with a sequential high dose rIL2 regimen. rIL-2 (RU 49637 from Roussel-Uclaf, Romainville, France) was started after hematological reconstitution an average of 72 +/- 22 days post transplant. The schedule consisted of a continuous infusion over 5 cycles (Cycle 1: 5 days starting on day 1; cycle 2-5: 2 days starting on day 15, 29, 43 and 57). Patients were treated at 4 different dosages (12 (N = 40), 16 (N = 3), 20 (N = 2), 24 (N = 5) x 10(6) IU/m2/day). Toxicities were mainly related to capillary leak syndrome and thrombocytopenia. Patients received an average of 122 +/- 49 10(6) IU/m2. Two patients with AML died from toxicity. rIL-2 infusion was associated with very a high level of immune stimu-lation of both T-cells (P < 0.05) and natural killer (NK) cells (P < 0.05) and associated cytolytic functions (P < 0.05). With a minimal and median follow-up of 21 and 46 months, 3 year leukemia free survival is 41 +/- 6% overall, 39 +/- 10% and 43 +/- 8% for AML and ALL respectively. Relapse probabilities at 3 years are 59 +/- 11% for AML and 57 +/- 8% for ALL. We conclude that this short infusion of rIL-2 over 2 months, resulting in an increased immune stimulation, is not associated with a better leukemic control for patients with acute leukemia transplanted early after reaching first complete remission.

Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values and small sample sizes.

PubMed

Moustakas, Aristides; Evans, Matthew R

2015-02-28

Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose. We investigate the survival rates of ten tree species in a dataset designed to monitor growth rates. As some individuals were not included in the census at some time points we use capture-mark-recapture methods both to allow us to account for missing individuals, and to estimate relocation probabilities. Growth rates, size, and light availability were included as covariates in the model predicting survival rates. The study demonstrates that tree mortality is best described as constant between years and size-dependent at early life stages and size independent at later life stages for most species of UK hardwood. We have demonstrated that even with a twenty-year dataset it is possible to discern variability both between individuals and between species. Our work illustrates the potential utility of the method applied here for calculating plant population dynamics parameters in time replicated datasets with small sample sizes and missing individuals without any loss of sample size, and including explanatory covariates.

The effect of delayed graft function on graft and patient survival in kidney transplantation: an approach using competing events analysis.

PubMed

Fonseca, Isabel; Teixeira, Laetitia; Malheiro, Jorge; Martins, La Salete; Dias, Leonídio; Castro Henriques, António; Mendonça, Denisa

2015-06-01

In kidney transplantation, the impact of delayed graft function (DGF) on long-term graft and patient survival is controversial. We examined the impact of DGF on graft and recipient survival by accounting for the possibility that death with graft function may act as a competing risk for allograft failure. We used data from 1281 adult primary deceased-donor kidney recipients whose allografts functioned at least 1 year. The probability of graft loss occurrence is overestimated using the complement of Kaplan-Meier estimates (1-KM). Both the cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression model (standard Cox) and the subdistribution hazard regression model proposed by Fine and Gray showed that DGF was associated with shorter time to graft failure (csHR = 2.0, P = 0.002; sHR = 1.57, P = 0.009), independent of acute rejection (AR) and after adjusting for traditional factors associated with graft failure. Regarding patient survival, DGF was a predictor of patient death using the cause-specific Cox model (csHR = 1.57, P = 0.029) but not using the subdistribution model. The probability of graft loss from competing end points should not be reported with the 1-KM. Application of a regression model for subdistribution hazard showed that, independent of AR, DGF has a detrimental effect on long-term graft survival, but not on patient survival. © 2015 Steunstichting ESOT.

Cure models for estimating hospital-based breast cancer survival.

PubMed

Rama, Ranganathan; Swaminathan, Rajaraman; Venkatesan, Perumal

2010-01-01

Research on cancer survival is enriched by development and application of innovative analytical approaches in relation to standard methods. The aim of the present paper is to document the utility of a mixture model to estimate the cure fraction and compare it with other approaches. The data were for 1,107 patients with locally advanced breast cancer, who completed the neo-adjuvant treatment protocol during 1990-99 at the Cancer Institute (WIA), Chennai, India. Tumour stage, post-operative pathological node (PN) and tumour residue (TR) status were studied. Event free survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cure models under proportional and non-proportional hazard assumptions following log normal distribution for survival time were used to estimate both the cure fraction and the survival function for the uncured. Event free survival at 5 and 10 years were 64.2% and 52.6% respectively and cure fraction was 47.5% for all cases together. Follow up ranged between 0-15 years and survival probabilities showed minimal changes after 7 years of follow up. TR and PN emerged as independent prognostic factors using Cox and proportional hazard (PH) cure models. Proportionality condition was violated when tumour stage was considered and it was statistically significant only under PH and not under non PH cure models. However, TR and PN continued to be independent prognostic factors after adjusting for tumour stage using the non PH cure model. A consistent ordering of cure fractions with respect to factors of PN and TR was forthcoming across tumour stages using PH and non PH cure models, but perceptible differences in survival were observed between the two. If PH conditions are violated, analysis using a non PH model is advocated and mixture cure models are useful in estimating the cure fraction and constructing survival curves for non-cures.

Survival of inlays and partial crowns made of IPS empress after a 10-year observation period and in relation to various treatment parameters.

PubMed

Stoll, Richard; Cappel, I; Jablonski-Momeni, Anahita; Pieper, K; Stachniss, V

2007-01-01

This study evaluated the long-term survival of inlays and partial crowns made of IPS Empress. For this purpose, the patient data of a prospective study were examined in retrospect and statistically evaluated. All of the inlays and partial crowns fabricated of IPS-Empress within the Department of Operative Dentistry at the School of Dental Medicine of Philipps University, Marburg, Germany were systematically recorded in a database between 1991 and 2001. The corresponding patient files were revised at the end of 2001. The information gathered in this way was used to evaluate the survival of the restorations using the method described by Kaplan and Meyer. A total of n = 1624 restorations were fabricated of IPS-Empress within the observation period. During this time, n = 53 failures were recorded. The remaining restorations were observed for a mean period of 18.77 months. The failures were mainly attributed to fractures, endodontic problems and cementation errors. The last failure was established after 82 months. At this stage, a cumulative survival probability of p = 0.81 was registered with a standard error of 0.04. At this time, n = 30 restorations were still being observed. Restorations on vital teeth (n = 1588) showed 46 failures, with a cumulative survival probability of p = 0.82. Restorations performed on non-vital teeth (n = 36) showed seven failures, with a cumulative survival probability of p = 0.53. Highly significant differences were found between the two groups (p < 0.0001) in a log-rank test. No significant difference (p = 0.41) was found between the patients treated by students (n = 909) and those treated by qualified dentists (n = 715). Likewise, no difference (p = 0.13) was established between the restorations seated with a high viscosity cement (n = 295) and those placed with a low viscosity cement (n = 1329).

Dexamethasone and Long-Term Outcome of Tuberculous Meningitis in Vietnamese Adults and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Török, M. Estée; Bang, Nguyen Duc; Chau, Tran Thi Hong; Yen, Nguyen Thi Bich; Thwaites, Guy E.; Thi Quy, Hoang; Dung, Nguyen Huy; Hien, Tran Tinh; Chinh, Nguyen Tran; Thi Thanh Hoang, Hoang; Wolbers, Marcel; Farrar, Jeremy J.

2011-01-01

Background Dexamethasone has been shown to reduce mortality in patients with tuberculous meningitis but the long-term outcome of the disease is unknown. Methods Vietnamese adults and adolescents with tuberculous meningitis recruited to a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive dexamethasone were followed-up at five years, to determine the effect of dexamethasone on long-term survival and neurological disability. Results 545 patients were randomised to receive either dexamethasone (274 patients) or placebo (271 patients). 50 patients (9.2%) were lost to follow-up at five years. In all patients two-year survival, probabilities tended to be higher in the dexamethasone arm (0.63 versus 0.55; p = 0.07) but five-year survival rates were similar (0.54 versus 0.51, p = 0.51) in both groups. In patients with grade 1 TBM, but not with grade 2 or grade 3 TBM, the benefit of dexamethasone treatment tended to persist over time (five-year survival probabilities 0.69 versus 0.55, p = 0.07) but there was no conclusive evidence of treatment effect heterogeneity by TBM grade (p = 0.36). The dexamethasone group had a similar proportion of severely disabled patients among survivors at five years as the placebo group (17/128, 13.2% vs. 17/116, 14.7%) and there was no significant association between dexamethasone treatment and disability status at five years (p = 0.32). Conclusions Adjunctive dexamethasone appears to improve the probability of survival in patients with TBM, until at least two years of follow-up. We could not demonstrate a five-year survival benefit of dexamethasone treatment which may be confined to patients with grade 1 TBM. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01317654 NCT01317654?term = tuberculous+meningitis&rank = 3 PMID:22174748

Growth and survival of Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian J.; Knopf, Fritz L.

1993-01-01

Growth and survival rates of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus) were monitored using radiotelemetry from hatching until birds left the breeding grounds on the Pawnee National Grassland, Weld County, Colorado. Chick weights increased logarithmically (r) = 0.961) and tarsus length linearly (r = 0.948) with age. Using the average fledgling weight of 69.8 g and an age/weight regression we predicted that the average age at fledging was 36 d. Fourteen Mountain Plover nests each had three effs; an average of 2.6 eggs hatched in seven nests, whereas remaining nests were lost to predation, storms, or trampling by a cow. Twenty-four adult Mountain Plovers were monitored for 275 telemetry days with no mortalities. Twenty flightless chicks had a calculated daily survival rate of 0.979 for 233 telemetry-days. Mortalities of flightless chicks were due to predation or unknown causes. The daily survival rate predicted that 1.2 of the 2.6 chicks hatched per nest lived to fly. Eight fledged chicks were monitored for 74 telemetry-days, with a daily survival rate of 0.974. Mortalities of fledglings were all attributed to predation. The combined survival rates predicted that 0.7 or the 2.6 hatched chicks lived to leave the nesting area. Survival rates of flightless chicks were similar to those reported 20 yr ago, implying that recent declines in Mountain Plover numbers on the continent are not attributable to either longer-term declines in nesting productivity or phenomena occurring at non-breeding locales.

Adrenaline (epinephrine) dosing period and survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective review of prospectively collected data.

PubMed

Warren, Sam A; Huszti, Ella; Bradley, Steven M; Chan, Paul S; Bryson, Chris L; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Nichol, Graham

2014-03-01

Expert guidelines for treatment of cardiac arrest recommend administration of adrenaline (epinephrine) every three to five minutes. However, the effects of different dosing periods of epinephrine remain unclear. We sought to evaluate the association between epinephrine average dosing period and survival to hospital discharge in adults with an in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). We performed a retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 20,909 IHCA events from 505 hospitals participating in the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation (GWTG-R) quality improvement registry. Epinephrine average dosing period was defined as the time between the first epinephrine dose and the resuscitation endpoint, divided by the total number of epinephrine doses received subsequent to the first epinephrine dose. Associations with survival to hospital discharge were assessed by using generalized estimating equations to construct multivariable logistic regression models. Compared to a referent epinephrine average dosing period of 4 to <5 min per dose, survival to hospital discharge was significantly higher in patients with the following epinephrine average dosing periods: for 6 to <7 min/dose, adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.41 (95%CI: 1.12, 1.78); for 7 to <8 min/dose, adjusted OR, 1.30 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.65); for 8 to <9 min/dose, adjusted OR, 1.79 (95%CI: 1.38, 2.32); for 9 to <10 min/dose, adjusted OR, 2.17 (95%CI: 1.62, 2.92). This pattern was consistent for both shockable and non-shockable cardiac arrest rhythms. Less frequent average epinephrine dosing than recommended by consensus guidelines was associated with improved survival of in-hospital cardiac arrest. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

What are the physiological and immunological responses of coral to climate warming and disease?

PubMed

Mydlarz, Laura D; McGinty, Elizabeth S; Harvell, C Drew

2010-03-15

Coral mortality due to climate-associated stress is likely to increase as the oceans get warmer and more acidic. Coral bleaching and an increase in infectious disease are linked to above average sea surface temperatures. Despite the uncertain future for corals, recent studies have revealed physiological mechanisms that improve coral resilience to the effects of climate change. Some taxa of bleached corals can increase heterotrophic food intake and exchange symbionts for more thermally tolerant clades; this plasticity can increase the probability of surviving lethal thermal stress. Corals can fight invading pathogens with a suite of innate immune responses that slow and even arrest pathogen growth and reduce further tissue damage. Several of these responses, such as the melanin cascade, circulating amoebocytes and antioxidants, are induced in coral hosts during pathogen invasion or disease. Some components of immunity show thermal resilience and are enhanced during temperature stress and even in bleached corals. These examples suggest some plasticity and resilience to cope with environmental change and even the potential for evolution of resistance to disease. However, there is huge variability in responses among coral species, and the rate of climate change is projected to be so rapid that only extremely hardy taxa are likely to survive the projected changes in climate stressors.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of PET-CT-guided management for locally advanced head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Smith, A F; Hall, P S; Hulme, C T; Dunn, J A; McConkey, C C; Rahman, J K; McCabe, C; Mehanna, H

2017-11-01

A recent large United Kingdom (UK) clinical trial demonstrated that positron-emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT)-guided administration of neck dissection (ND) in patients with advanced head and neck cancer after primary chemo-radiotherapy treatment produces similar survival outcomes to planned ND (standard care) and is cost-effective over a short-term horizon. Further assessment of long-term outcomes is required to inform a robust adoption decision. Here we present results of a lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis of PET-CT-guided management from a UK secondary care perspective. Initial 6-month cost and health outcomes were derived from trial data; subsequent incidence of recurrence and mortality was simulated using a de novo Markov model. Health benefit was measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs reported in 2015 British pounds. Model parameters were derived from trial data and published literature. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty and broader National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services (PSS) costs on the results. PET-CT management produced an average per-person lifetime cost saving of £1485 and an additional 0.13 QALYs. At a £20,000 willingness-to-pay per additional QALY threshold, there was a 75% probability that PET-CT was cost-effective, and the results remained cost-effective over the majority of sensitivity analyses. When adopting a broader NHS and PSS perspective, PET-CT management produced an average saving of £700 and had an 81% probability of being cost-effective. This analysis indicates that PET-CT-guided management is cost-effective in the long-term and supports the case for wide-scale adoption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ergodic Theory, Interpretations of Probability and the Foundations of Statistical Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lith, Janneke

The traditional use of ergodic theory in the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics is that it provides a link between thermodynamic observables and microcanonical probabilities. First of all, the ergodic theorem demonstrates the equality of microcanonical phase averages and infinite time averages (albeit for a special class of systems, and up to a measure zero set of exceptions). Secondly, one argues that actual measurements of thermodynamic quantities yield time averaged quantities, since measurements take a long time. The combination of these two points is held to be an explanation why calculating microcanonical phase averages is a successful algorithm for predicting the values of thermodynamic observables. It is also well known that this account is problematic. This survey intends to show that ergodic theory nevertheless may have important roles to play, and it explores three other uses of ergodic theory. Particular attention is paid, firstly, to the relevance of specific interpretations of probability, and secondly, to the way in which the concern with systems in thermal equilibrium is translated into probabilistic language. With respect to the latter point, it is argued that equilibrium should not be represented as a stationary probability distribution as is standardly done; instead, a weaker definition is presented.

The Agility Advantage: A Survival Guide for Complex Enterprises and Endeavors

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

weighted probability 75th pctl weighted probability 13. Carman. K. G. and Kooreman, P, “ Flu Shots, Mammogram, and the Perception of Probabilities,” 2010...sharing capabilities until users can tes- tify to the benefi ts. This creates a chicken and egg situa- tion, because the consumers of information fi...Bibliography 563 Campen, Alan D. Look Closely at Network-Centric Warfare. Signal, January 2004. Carman, Katherine G., and Peter Kooreman, Peter. Flu Shots

Non-linear relationship of cell hit and transformation probabilities in a low dose of inhaled radon progenies.

PubMed

Balásházy, Imre; Farkas, Arpád; Madas, Balázs Gergely; Hofmann, Werner

2009-06-01

Cellular hit probabilities of alpha particles emitted by inhaled radon progenies in sensitive bronchial epithelial cell nuclei were simulated at low exposure levels to obtain useful data for the rejection or support of the linear-non-threshold (LNT) hypothesis. In this study, local distributions of deposited inhaled radon progenies in airway bifurcation models were computed at exposure conditions characteristic of homes and uranium mines. Then, maximum local deposition enhancement factors at bronchial airway bifurcations, expressed as the ratio of local to average deposition densities, were determined to characterise the inhomogeneity of deposition and to elucidate their effect on resulting hit probabilities. The results obtained suggest that in the vicinity of the carinal regions of the central airways the probability of multiple hits can be quite high, even at low average doses. Assuming a uniform distribution of activity there are practically no multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose exhibits a linear shape in the low dose range. The results are quite the opposite in the case of hot spots revealed by realistic deposition calculations, where practically all cells receive multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose is non-linear in the average dose range of 10-100 mGy.

Quantifying inbreeding avoidance through extra-pair reproduction

PubMed Central

Reid, Jane M; Arcese, Peter; Keller, Lukas F; Germain, Ryan R; Duthie, A Bradley; Losdat, Sylvain; Wolak, Matthew E; Nietlisbach, Pirmin

2015-01-01

Extra-pair reproduction is widely hypothesized to allow females to avoid inbreeding with related socially paired males. Consequently, numerous field studies have tested the key predictions that extra-pair offspring are less inbred than females’ alternative within-pair offspring, and that the probability of extra-pair reproduction increases with a female's relatedness to her socially paired male. However, such studies rarely measure inbreeding or relatedness sufficiently precisely to detect subtle effects, or consider biases stemming from failure to observe inbred offspring that die during early development. Analyses of multigenerational song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) pedigree data showed that most females had opportunity to increase or decrease the coefficient of inbreeding of their offspring through extra-pair reproduction with neighboring males. In practice, observed extra-pair offspring had lower inbreeding coefficients than females’ within-pair offspring on average, while the probability of extra-pair reproduction increased substantially with the coefficient of kinship between a female and her socially paired male. However, simulations showed that such effects could simply reflect bias stemming from inbreeding depression in early offspring survival. The null hypothesis that extra-pair reproduction is random with respect to kinship therefore cannot be definitively rejected in song sparrows, and existing general evidence that females avoid inbreeding through extra-pair reproduction requires reevaluation given such biases. PMID:25346331

Large deviation probabilities for correlated Gaussian stochastic processes and daily temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massah, Mozhdeh; Kantz, Holger

2016-04-01

As we have one and only one earth and no replicas, climate characteristics are usually computed as time averages from a single time series. For understanding climate variability, it is essential to understand how close a single time average will typically be to an ensemble average. To answer this question, we study large deviation probabilities (LDP) of stochastic processes and characterize them by their dependence on the time window. In contrast to iid variables for which there exists an analytical expression for the rate function, the correlated variables such as auto-regressive (short memory) and auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average (long memory) processes, have not an analytical LDP. We study LDP for these processes, in order to see how correlation affects this probability in comparison to iid data. Although short range correlations lead to a simple correction of sample size, long range correlations lead to a sub-exponential decay of LDP and hence to a very slow convergence of time averages. This effect is demonstrated for a 120 year long time series of daily temperature anomalies measured in Potsdam (Germany).

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faulkner, James R.; Smith, Steven G.; Muir, William D.

2009-06-23

In 2008, the National Marine Fisheries Service completed the sixteenth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from detections of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. We PIT tagged and released a total of 18,565 hatchery steelhead O. mykiss, 15,991 wild steelhead, and 9,714 wild yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha at Lower Granite Dam in the Snake River. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream from themore » hydropower system and at sites within the hydropower system in both the Snake and Columbia Rivers. These included 122,061 yearling Chinook salmon tagged at Lower Granite Dam for evaluation of latent mortality related to passage through Snake River dams. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, Ice Harbor, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using a statistical model for tag-recapture data from single release groups (the single-release model). Primary research objectives in 2008 were to: (1) estimate reach survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the migration period of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead, (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions, and (3) evaluate the survival estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2008 for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild), hatchery sockeye salmon O. nerka, hatchery coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Additional details on the methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited here. Survival and detection probabilities were estimated precisely for most of the 2008 yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead migrations. Hatchery and wild fish were combined in some of the analyses. For yearling Chinook salmon, overall percentages for combined release groups used in survival analyses in the Snake River were 80% hatchery-reared and 20% wild. For steelhead, the overall percentages were 65% hatchery-reared and 35% wild. Estimated survival from the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of Little Goose Dam averaged 0.939 for yearling Chinook salmon and 0.935 for steelhead.« less

Comparison of Aperture Averaging and Receiver Diversity Techniques for Free Space Optical Links in Presence of Turbulence and Various Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Prabhmandeep; Jain, Virander Kumar; Kar, Subrat

2014-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of a Free Space Optic (FSO) link considering the impairments caused by the presence of various weather conditions such as very clear air, drizzle, haze, fog, etc., and turbulence in the atmosphere. Analytic expression for the outage probability is derived using the gamma-gamma distribution for turbulence and accounting the effect of weather conditions using the Beer-Lambert's law. The effect of receiver diversity schemes using aperture averaging and array receivers on the outage probability is studied and compared. As the aperture diameter is increased, the outage probability decreases irrespective of the turbulence strength (weak, moderate and strong) and weather conditions. Similar effects are observed when the number of direct detection receivers in the array are increased. However, it is seen that as the desired level of performance in terms of the outage probability decreases, array receiver becomes the preferred choice as compared to the receiver with aperture averaging.

Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Monnat, J.-Y.; Danchin, E.

2002-01-01

We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level. Our results provided confirmation of what has been suggested by other investigators: within-cohort phenotypic selection can mask senescence. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in humans and captive animals, conclusive evidence of the discrepancy between population-level and individual-level patterns of age-related variation in life-history traits is extremely rare in wild animal populations. Evolutionary studies of the influence of age on life-history traits should use approaches differentiating population level from the genuine influence of age: only the latter is relevant to theories of life-history evolution. The development of models permitting access to individual variation in fitness is a promising advance for the study of senescence and evolutionary processes.

Nomogram Prediction of Overall Survival After Curative Irradiation for Uterine Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, YoungSeok; Yoo, Seong Yul; Kim, Mi-Sook

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram capable of predicting the probability of 5-year survival after radical radiotherapy (RT) without chemotherapy for uterine cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 549 patients that underwent radical RT for uterine cervical cancer between March 1994 and April 2002 at our institution. Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed and this Cox model was used as the basis for the devised nomogram. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration by bootstrap resampling. Results: By multivariate regression analysis, the model showed that age, hemoglobin levelmore » before RT, Federation Internationale de Gynecologie Obstetrique (FIGO) stage, maximal tumor diameter, lymph node status, and RT dose at Point A significantly predicted overall survival. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.67. The predictive ability of the nomogram proved to be superior to FIGO stage (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The devised nomogram offers a significantly better level of discrimination than the FIGO staging system. In particular, it improves predictions of survival probability and could be useful for counseling patients, choosing treatment modalities and schedules, and designing clinical trials. However, before this nomogram is used clinically, it should be externally validated.« less

Comparison of migration rate and survival between radio-tagged and PIT-tagged migrant yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hockersmith, E.E.; Muir, W.D.; Smith, S.G.; Sandford, B.P.; Perry, R.W.; Adams, N.S.; Rondorf, D.W.

2003-01-01

A study was conducted to compare the travel times, detection probabilities, and survival of migrant hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha tagged with either gastrically or surgically implanted sham radio tags (with an imbedded passive integrated transponder [PIT] tag) with those of their cohorts tagged only with PIT tags in the Snake and Columbia rivers. Juvenile chinook salmon with gastrically implanted radio tags migrated significantly faster than either surgically radio-tagged or PIT-tagged fish, while migration rates were similar among surgically radio-tagged and PIT-tagged fish. The probabilities of PIT tag detection at downstream dams varied by less than 5% and were not significantly different among the three groups. Survival was similar among treatments for median travel times of less than approximately 6 d (migration distance of 106 km). However, for both gastrically and surgically radio-tagged fish, survival was significantly less than for PIT-tagged fish, for which median travel times exceeded approximately 10 d (migration distance of 225 km). The results of this study support the use of radio tags to estimate the survival of juvenile chinook salmon having a median fork length of approximately 150 mm (range, 127-285 mm) and a median travel time of migration of less than approximately 6 d.

Effect of simulated lunar impact on the survival of bacterial spores.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitfield, O.; Merek, E. L.; Oyama, V. I.

1973-01-01

In order to test the effect of impact on organisms, the survival of bacterial spores after being propelled at high velocity in Pyrex and plastic beads into crushed basalt was measured. The beads were fired into sterilized canisters by both a conventional powder and a light gas gun. Results indicate that at the minimum (2.4 km/sec) lunar capture velocity, the number of colony forming units (CFUs) decreased by five orders of magnitude, and at 5.5 km/sec, statistically a more probable capture velocity, no CFUs were found. The decrease in CFUs observed with increasing velocity indicates that the spores were most probably killed by the impact.

Natal location influences movement and survival of a spatially structured population of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Despite the accepted importance of the need to better understand how natal location affects movement decisions and survival of animals, robust estimates of movement and survival in relation to the natal location are lacking. Our study focuses on movement and survival related to the natal location of snail kites in Florida and shows that kites, in addition to exhibiting a high level of site tenacity to breeding regions, also exhibit particular attraction to their natal region. More specifically, we found that estimates of movement from post-dispersal regions were greater toward natal regions than toward non-natal regions (differences were significant for three of four regions). We also found that estimates of natal philopatry were greater than estimates of philopatry to non-natal regions (differences were statistically significant for two of four regions). A previous study indicated an effect of natal region on juvenile survival; in this study, we show an effect of natal region on adult survival. Estimates of adult survival varied among kites that were hatched in different regions. Adults experienced mortality rates characteristic of the region occupied at the time when survival was measured, but because there is a greater probability that kites will return to their natal region than to any other regions, their survival was ultimately influenced by their natal region. In most years, kites hatched in southern regions had greater survival probabilities than did kites hatched in northern regions. However, during a multiregional drought, one of the northern regions served as a refuge from drought, and during this perturbation, survival was greater for birds hatched in the north. Our study shows that natal location may be important in influencing the ecological dynamics of kites but also highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in habitat conditions of spatially structured systems when attempting to evaluate the conservation value of habitats.

Annual Report to the Nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2010, featuring prevalence of comorbidity and impact on survival among persons with lung, colorectal, breast, or prostate cancer.

PubMed

Edwards, Brenda K; Noone, Anne-Michelle; Mariotto, Angela B; Simard, Edgar P; Boscoe, Francis P; Henley, S Jane; Jemal, Ahmedin; Cho, Hyunsoon; Anderson, Robert N; Kohler, Betsy A; Eheman, Christie R; Ward, Elizabeth M

2014-05-01

The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updates on cancer incidence and death rates and trends in these outcomes for the United States. This year's report includes the prevalence of comorbidity at the time of first cancer diagnosis among patients with lung, colorectal, breast, or prostate cancer and survival among cancer patients based on comorbidity level. Data on cancer incidence were obtained from the NCI, the CDC, and the NAACCR; and data on mortality were obtained from the CDC. Long-term (1975/1992-2010) and short-term (2001-2010) trends in age-adjusted incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancers among men and women were examined by joinpoint analysis. Through linkage with Medicare claims, the prevalence of comorbidity among cancer patients who were diagnosed between 1992 through 2005 residing in 11 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) areas were estimated and compared with the prevalence in a 5% random sample of cancer-free Medicare beneficiaries. Among cancer patients, survival and the probabilities of dying of their cancer and of other causes by comorbidity level, age, and stage were calculated. Death rates continued to decline for all cancers combined for men and women of all major racial and ethnic groups and for most major cancer sites; rates for both sexes combined decreased by 1.5% per year from 2001 through 2010. Overall incidence rates decreased in men and stabilized in women. The prevalence of comorbidity was similar among cancer-free Medicare beneficiaries (31.8%), breast cancer patients (32.2%), and prostate cancer patients (30.5%); highest among lung cancer patients (52.9%); and intermediate among colorectal cancer patients (40.7%). Among all cancer patients and especially for patients diagnosed with local and regional disease, age and comorbidity level were important influences on the probability of dying of other causes and, consequently, on overall survival. For patients diagnosed with distant disease, the probability of dying of cancer was much higher than the probability of dying of other causes, and age and comorbidity had a smaller effect on overall survival. Cancer death rates in the United States continue to decline. Estimates of survival that include the probability of dying of cancer and other causes stratified by comorbidity level, age, and stage can provide important information to facilitate treatment decisions. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of HCl on Au(111) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina; Zhang, Dong H.

2013-11-01

The six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative chemisorption of HCl on Au(111) are carried out using the time-dependent wave-packet approach, based on an accurate PES which was recently developed by neural network fitting to density functional theory energy points. The influence of vibrational excitation and rotational orientation of HCl on the reactivity is investigated by calculating the exact six-dimensional dissociation probabilities, as well as the four-dimensional fixed-site dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of HCl enhances the reactivity and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. A new interesting site-averaged effect is found for the title molecule-surface system that one can essentially reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability by averaging the four-dimensional dissociation probabilities over 25 fixed sites.

A unified degree day model describes survivorship of Copitarsia corruda Pogue & Simmons (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) at different constant temperatures

Treesearch

N.N. G& #243; mez; R.C. Venette; J.R. Gould; D.F. Winograd

2009-01-01

Predictions of survivorship are critical to quantify the probability of establishment by an alien invasive species, but survival curves rarely distinguish between the effects of temperature on development versus senescence. We report chronological and physiological age-based survival curves for a potentially invasive noctuid, recently described as Copitarsia...

A survival model for individual shortleaf pine trees in even-aged natural stands

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Michael M. Huebschmann; Paul A. Murphy

2000-01-01

A model was developed that predicts the probability of survival for individual shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) trees growing in even-aged natural stands. Data for model development were obtained from the first two measurements of permanently established plots located in naturally occurring shortleaf pine forests on the Ouachita and Ozark...

A superstatistical model of metastasis and cancer survival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon Chen, L.; Beck, Christian

2008-05-01

We introduce a superstatistical model for the progression statistics of malignant cancer cells. The metastatic cascade is modeled as a complex nonequilibrium system with several macroscopic pathways and inverse-chi-square distributed parameters of the underlying Poisson processes. The predictions of the model are in excellent agreement with observed survival-time probability distributions of breast cancer patients.

Diameter Growth, Survival, and Volume Estimates for Missouri Trees

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; W. Brad Smith

1982-01-01

Measurements of more than 20,000 Missouri trees were summarized by species and diameter class into tables of mean annual diameter growth, annual probability of survival, net cubic foot volume, and net board foot volume. In the absence of better forecasting techniques, this information can be utilized to project short-term changes for Missouri trees, inventory plots,...

Meteoroid/Orbital Debris Shield Engineering Development Practice and Procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwitter, James G.; Adams, Marc A.

2011-01-01

A document describes a series of models created for the determination of the probability of survival of critical spacecraft components from particle strike damage caused by hypervelocity impact of meteoroids and/or orbital debris. These models were integrated with both shield design and hypervelocity impact testing to develop adequate protection of said components to meet mission survivability requirements.

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Amstrup, Steven C; Stirling, Ian

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0.96-0.99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0.73-0.79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are relevant to the extinction risk facing approximately one-third of the world's polar bears.

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are relevant to the extinction risk facing approximately one-third of the world's polar bears. 

[Employment "survival" among nursing workers at a public hospital].

PubMed

Anselmi, M L; Duarte, G G; Angerami, E L

2001-07-01

This study aimed at estimating the employment "survival" time of nursing workers after their admission to a public hospital as a turnover index. The Life Table method was used in order to calculate the employment survival probability by X years for each one of the categories of workers. The results showed an accentuated turnover of the work force in the studied period. The categories nursing auxiliary and nurse presented low stability in employment while the category nursing technician was more stable.

Retrospective review of efficacy of radiofrequency ablation for treatment of colorectal cancer liver metastases from a Canadian perspective.

PubMed

Kwan, Benjamin Y M; Kielar, Ania Z; El-Maraghi, Robert H; Garcia, Lourdes M

2014-02-01

A retrospective single-center review of ultrasound-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatment of colorectal cancer liver metastases was performed. This study reviews the primary and secondary technical effectiveness, overall survival of patients, recurrence-free survival, tumour-free survival, rates of local recurrence, and postprocedural RFA complications. Technical effectiveness and rates of complication with respect to tumour location and size were evaluated. Our results were compared with similar studies from Europe and North America. A total of 63 patients (109 tumours) treated with RFA between February 2004 and December 2009 were reviewed. Average and median follow-up time was 19.4 and 16.5 months, respectively (range, 1-54 months). Data from patient charts, pathology, and Picture Archiving and Communication System was integrated into an Excel database. Statistical Analysis Software was used for statistical analysis. Primary and secondary technical effectiveness of percutaneous and intraoperative RFA were 90.8% and 92.7%, respectively. Average (SE) tumour-free survival was 14.4 ± 1.4 months (range, 1-43 months), and average (SE) recurrence-free survival was 33.5 ± 2.3 months (range, 2-50 months). Local recurrence was seen in 31.2% of treated tumours (range, 2-50 months) (34/109). Overall survival was 89.4% at 1 year, 70.0% at 2 years, and 38.1% at 3 years, with an average (SE) overall survival of 37.0 ± 2.8 months. There were 14 postprocedural complications. There was no statistically significant difference in technical effectiveness for small tumours (1-2 cm) vs intermediate ones (3-5 cm). There was no difference in technical effectiveness for peripheral vs parenchymal tumours. This study demonstrated good-quality outcomes for RFA treatment of colorectal cancer liver metastases from a Canadian perspective and compared favorably with published studies. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Association of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Correcting for dependent censoring in routine outcome monitoring data by applying the inverse probability censoring weighted estimator.

PubMed

Willems, Sjw; Schat, A; van Noorden, M S; Fiocco, M

2018-02-01

Censored data make survival analysis more complicated because exact event times are not observed. Statistical methodology developed to account for censored observations assumes that patients' withdrawal from a study is independent of the event of interest. However, in practice, some covariates might be associated to both lifetime and censoring mechanism, inducing dependent censoring. In this case, standard survival techniques, like Kaplan-Meier estimator, give biased results. The inverse probability censoring weighted estimator was developed to correct for bias due to dependent censoring. In this article, we explore the use of inverse probability censoring weighting methodology and describe why it is effective in removing the bias. Since implementing this method is highly time consuming and requires programming and mathematical skills, we propose a user friendly algorithm in R. Applications to a toy example and to a medical data set illustrate how the algorithm works. A simulation study was carried out to investigate the performance of the inverse probability censoring weighted estimators in situations where dependent censoring is present in the data. In the simulation process, different sample sizes, strengths of the censoring model, and percentages of censored individuals were chosen. Results show that in each scenario inverse probability censoring weighting reduces the bias induced in the traditional Kaplan-Meier approach where dependent censoring is ignored.

A Model-Based Architecture Approach to Ship Design Linking Capability Needs to System Solutions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

NSSM NATO Sea Sparrow Missile RAM Rolling Airframe Missile CIWS Close-In Weapon System 3D Three Dimensional Ps Probability of Survival PHit ...example effectiveness model. The primary MOP is the inverse of the probability of taking a hit (1- PHit ), which in, this study, will be referred to as

Competitive capacity of Quercus rubra L. planted in Arkansas' Boston Mountains

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich; Daniel C. Dey; Paul S. Johnson; David L. Graney

2002-01-01

Results of an 11 yr study of the growth and survival of planted northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings (2-0 bare-root) are presented. More than 4,000 seedlings were planted under shelterwood overstories that were harvested 3 yr after planting. Results are expressed as planted-tree dominance probabilities. Dominance probability is the...

Ensemble Averaged Probability Density Function (APDF) for Compressible Turbulent Reacting Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey

2012-01-01

In this paper, we present a concept of the averaged probability density function (APDF) for studying compressible turbulent reacting flows. The APDF is defined as an ensemble average of the fine grained probability density function (FG-PDF) with a mass density weighting. It can be used to exactly deduce the mass density weighted, ensemble averaged turbulent mean variables. The transport equation for APDF can be derived in two ways. One is the traditional way that starts from the transport equation of FG-PDF, in which the compressible Navier- Stokes equations are embedded. The resulting transport equation of APDF is then in a traditional form that contains conditional means of all terms from the right hand side of the Navier-Stokes equations except for the chemical reaction term. These conditional means are new unknown quantities that need to be modeled. Another way of deriving the transport equation of APDF is to start directly from the ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting transport equation of APDF derived from this approach appears in a closed form without any need for additional modeling. The methodology of ensemble averaging presented in this paper can be extended to other averaging procedures: for example, the Reynolds time averaging for statistically steady flow and the Reynolds spatial averaging for statistically homogeneous flow. It can also be extended to a time or spatial filtering procedure to construct the filtered density function (FDF) for the large eddy simulation (LES) of compressible turbulent reacting flows.

Vacuum quantum stress tensor fluctuations: A diagonalization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiappacasse, Enrico D.; Fewster, Christopher J.; Ford, L. H.

2018-01-01

Large vacuum fluctuations of a quantum stress tensor can be described by the asymptotic behavior of its probability distribution. Here we focus on stress tensor operators which have been averaged with a sampling function in time. The Minkowski vacuum state is not an eigenstate of the time-averaged operator, but can be expanded in terms of its eigenstates. We calculate the probability distribution and the cumulative probability distribution for obtaining a given value in a measurement of the time-averaged operator taken in the vacuum state. In these calculations, we study a specific operator that contributes to the stress-energy tensor of a massless scalar field in Minkowski spacetime, namely, the normal ordered square of the time derivative of the field. We analyze the rate of decrease of the tail of the probability distribution for different temporal sampling functions, such as compactly supported functions and the Lorentzian function. We find that the tails decrease relatively slowly, as exponentials of fractional powers, in agreement with previous work using the moments of the distribution. Our results lend additional support to the conclusion that large vacuum stress tensor fluctuations are more probable than large thermal fluctuations, and may have observable effects.

Allometric growth in juvenile marine turtles: possible role as an antipredator adaptation.

PubMed

Salmon, Michael; Scholl, Joshua

2014-04-01

Female marine turtles produce hundreds of offspring during their lifetime but few survive because small turtles have limited defenses and are vulnerable to many predators. Little is known about how small turtles improve their survival probabilities with growth though it is assumed that they do. We reared green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and loggerheads (Caretta caretta) from hatchlings to 13 weeks of age and documented that they grew wider faster than they grew longer. This pattern of allometric growth might enable small turtles to more quickly achieve protection from gape-limited predators, such as the dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus). As a test of that hypothesis, we measured how dolphinfish gape increased with length, reviewed the literature to determine how dolphinfish populations were size/age structured in nearby waters, and then determined the probability that a small turtle would encounter a fish large enough to consume it if it grew by allometry vs. by isometry (in which case it retained its hatchling proportions). Allometric growth more quickly reduced the probability of a lethal encounter than did isometric growth. On that basis, we suggest that allometry during early ontogeny may have evolved because it provides a survival benefit for small turtles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Litter sex composition influences dominance status of Alpine marmots (Marmota marmota).

PubMed

Dupont, Pierre; Pradel, Roger; Lardy, Sophie; Allainé, Dominique; Cohas, Aurélie

2015-11-01

In social species, the hierarchical status of an individual has important consequences for its fitness. While many studies have focused on individual condition to explain access to dominance, very few have investigated the influence of the social environment, especially during early life. Yet it is known that environmental conditions early in life may influence several traits at adulthood. Here, we examine the influence of early social environment on accession to dominance by investigating the influence of litter size and sex composition on survival and the probability of ascending to dominance later in life using a 20-year dataset from a wild population of Alpine marmots (Marmota marmota). Although litter size had no effect on the fate of individuals, litter sex composition affected male juvenile survival and both male and female probabilities of reaching dominant status when adult. Male juveniles incur lower survival when the number of male juveniles in the litter increases, and individuals of both sexes from male-biased litters are more likely to become dominant than individuals from female-biased litters. However, the absolute number of sisters in the litter, rather than the sex ratio, seems to be an important predictor of the probability of acquiring dominant status: pups having more sisters are less likely to become dominant. Several potential mechanisms to explain these results are discussed.

Cosmological measure with volume averaging and the vacuum energy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astashenok, Artyom V.; del Popolo, Antonino

2012-04-01

In this paper, we give a possible solution to the cosmological constant problem. It is shown that the traditional approach, based on volume weighting of probabilities, leads to an incoherent conclusion: the probability that a randomly chosen observer measures Λ = 0 is exactly equal to 1. Using an alternative, volume averaging measure, instead of volume weighting can explain why the cosmological constant is non-zero.

Greater sage-grouse apparent nest productivity and chick survival in Carbon County, Wyoming

DOE PAGES

Schreiber, Leslie A.; Hansen, Christopher P.; Rumble, Mark A.; ...

2016-03-01

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations across North America have been declining due to degradation and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. As part of a study quantifying greater sage-grouse demographics prior to construction of a wind energy facility, we estimated apparent net nest productivity and survival rate of chicks associated with radio-equipped female sage-grouse in Carbon County, Wyoming, USA. We estimated apparent net nest productivity using a weighted mean of the average brood size and used a modified logistic-exposure method to estimate daily chick survival over a 70-day time period. Apparent nest productivity was 2.79 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.46–4.12) inmore » 2011, 2.00 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.00–3.00) in 2012, and 1.54 chick per female (95% CI: 0.62–2.46) in 2013. Chick survival to 70 days post-hatch was 19.10% (95% CI: 6.22–37.42%) in 2011, 4.20% (95% CI: 0.84–12.31%) in 2012, and 16.05% (95% CI: 7.67–27.22%) in 2013. These estimates were low, yet within the range of other published survival rates. Chick survival was primarily associated with year and chick age, with minor effects of average temperature between surveys and hatch date. The variability in chick survival rates across years of our study suggests annual weather patterns may have large impacts on chick survival. Thus, management actions that increase the availability of food and cover for chicks may be necessary, especially during years with drought and above-average spring temperatures.« less

Breeding biology and success of a reintroduced population of the critically endangered Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tweed, E.J.; Foster, J.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Monahan, W.B.; Kellerman, J.L.; Lieberman, A.

2006-01-01

The ultimate success of reintroduction programs for endangered species depends on the ability of reintroduced animals to breed in the wild. We studied the nesting success and breeding biology of a reintroduced population of Puaiohi (Myadestes palmeri) on the island of Kaua'i, Hawaii. Thirty-four captive-bred Puaiohi were released into the Alaka'i Swamp in 1999-2001 and monitored using radiotelemetry. Ten females and two males paired with wild and other released birds, including one polygynous trio. From March to September, 31 nests were built. Mean clutch size was 2.0 eggs, daily nest survival was 0.97 ± 0.01 (mean ± SE) and overall nest success was 0.40 ± 0.02. We confirmed predation, most probably by rats (Rattus spp.), as the greatest cause of nest failure, occurring at 38% of active nests with known fates, and causing the death of two nesting adult females. Ground-based rodent control proved ineffective at protecting nest attempts. Successful nests fledged an average of 1.4 young each (n = 10), and 85% of fledglings survived at least two weeks. Importantly, breeding behavior and success were comparable to those of wild Puaiohi. This is the first record of breeding in the wild from captive-bred endangered Hawaiian passerines. The ability of captive-bred Puaiohi to survive and breed successfully in the wild bodes well for future releases of this and other endangered passerines, but high predation rates on nests and nesting females highlights the importance of maintaining and restoring safe habitat for recovery.

Modeling the effects of potential salinity shifts on the recovery of striped bass in the Savannah River estuary, Georgia-South Carolina, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reinert, T.R.; Peterson, J.T.

2008-01-01

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (???1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, "first-order" attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Vulvar cancer: the Cinderella of gynaecological oncology.

PubMed

Giles, G G; Kneale, B L

1995-02-01

Cancer of the vulva is a rare malignancy that increases progressively with age. The age-standardized incidence averages between 1 and 2 per 100,000 women in Western countries. The majority (80-90%) are squamous cell carcinomas, melanoma and adenocarcinoma each accounting for about 5% of cases. Internationally, the incidence of vulvar cancer varies more than 30-fold, the highest rates being seen in populations of Portuguese South America. In many populations the incidence appears to be stable but there is some evidence that the incidence of in situ carcinoma is increasing in the United States of America. Epidemiological studies have identified sexual factors, particularly human papilloma virus (HPV) infection, as increasing risk. Smoking also increases risk by interacting synergistically with HPV infection and genital warts. The aetiologies of vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN)3/in situ disease and invasive cancer appear to differ. VIN does not automatically progress to invasive cancer and is strongly associated with HPV infection. Many older women with invasive vulvar cancer do not have evidence of HPV and do not smoke. More research is needed on the cause of vulvar carcinoma in this group. Treatment has become more conservative over the years and this has reduced morbidity and probably mortality. Although FIGO data do not show much by way of improvement in survival, data from population-based cancer registries have shown definite increases in survival (5-year survival proportions in excess of 80%, when age and Stage have been taken into account). Improvement is particularly related to the preponderance of early stage disease.

Investigation of the relation between the return periods of major drought characteristics using copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüsami Afşar, Mehdi; Unal Şorman, Ali; Tugrul Yilmaz, Mustafa

2016-04-01

Different drought characteristics (e.g. duration, average severity, and average areal extent) often have monotonic relation that increased magnitude of one often follows a similar increase in the magnitude of the other drought characteristic. Hence it is viable to establish a relationship between different drought characteristics with the goal of predicting one using other ones. Copula functions that relate different variables using their joint and conditional cumulative probability distributions are often used to statistically model the drought characteristics. In this study bivariate and trivariate joint probabilities of these characteristics are obtained over Ankara (Turkey) between 1960 and 2013. Copula-based return period estimation of drought characteristics of duration, average severity, and average areal extent show joint probabilities of these characteristics can be satisfactorily achieved. Among different copula families investigated in this study, elliptical family (i.e. including normal and t-student copula functions) resulted in the lowest root mean square error. "This study was supported by TUBITAK fund #114Y676)."

Probabilities for gravitational lensing by point masses in a locally inhomogeneous universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaacson, Jeffrey A.; Canizares, Claude R.

1989-01-01

Probability functions for gravitational lensing by point masses that incorporate Poisson statistics and flux conservation are formulated in the Dyer-Roeder construction. Optical depths to lensing for distant sources are calculated using both the method of Press and Gunn (1973) which counts lenses in an otherwise empty cone, and the method of Ehlers and Schneider (1986) which projects lensing cross sections onto the source sphere. These are then used as parameters of the probability density for lensing in the case of a critical (q0 = 1/2) Friedmann universe. A comparison of the probability functions indicates that the effects of angle-averaging can be well approximated by adjusting the average magnification along a random line of sight so as to conserve flux.

The Association Between Duration of Resuscitation and Favorable Outcome After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: Implications for Prolonging or Terminating Resuscitation

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Joshua C.; Grunau, Brian E.; Rittenberger, Jon C.; Sawyer, Kelly N.; Kurz, Michael C.; Callaway, Clifton W.

2016-01-01

Background Little evidence guides the appropriate duration of resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), and case features justifying longer or shorter durations are ill-defined. We estimated the impact of resuscitation duration on the probability of favorable functional outcome in OHCA using a large, multi-center cohort. Methods Secondary analysis of a North American, single blind, multi-center, cluster-randomized clinical trial (ROC-PRIMED) of consecutive adults with non-traumatic, EMS-treated, OHCA. Primary exposure was duration of resuscitation in minutes (onset of professional resuscitation to return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC] or termination of resuscitation). Primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge with favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale [mRS] 0-3). Subjects were additionally classified as survival with unfavorable outcome (mRS 4-5), ROSC without survival (mRS 6), or without ROSC. Subject accrual was plotted as a function of resuscitation duration, and the dynamic probability of favorable outcome at discharge was estimated for the whole cohort and subgroups. Adjusted logistic regression models tested the association between resuscitation duration and survival with favorable outcome. Results The primary cohort included 11,368 subjects (median age 69 years [IQR: 56-81 years]; 7,121 men [62.6%]). Of these, 4,023 (35.4%) achieved ROSC, 1,232 (10.8%) survived to hospital discharge, and 905 (8.0%) had mRS 0-3 at discharge. Distribution of CPR duration differed by outcome (p<0.00001). For CPR duration up to 37.0 minutes (95%CI 34.9-40.9 minutes), 99% with eventual mRS 0-3 at discharge achieved ROSC. Dynamic probability of mRS 0-3 at discharge declined over elapsed resuscitation duration, but subjects with initial shockable cardiac rhythm, witnessed cardiac arrest, and bystander CPR were more likely to survive with favorable outcome after prolonged efforts (30-40 minutes). Adjusting for prehospital (OR 0.93; 95%CI 0.92-0.95) and inpatient (OR 0.97; 95%CI 0.95-0.99) covariates, resuscitation duration was associated with survival to discharge with mRS 0-3. Conclusions Shorter resuscitation duration was associated with likelihood of favorable outcome at hospital discharge. Subjects with favorable case features were more likely to survive prolonged resuscitation up to 47 minutes. PMID:27760796

Survival of mountain quail translocated from two distinct source populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troy, Ronald J.; Coates, Peter S.; Connelly, John W.; Gillette, Gifford; Delehanty, David J.

2013-01-01

Translocation of mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) to restore viable populations to their former range has become a common practice. Because differences in post-release vital rates between animals from multiple source populations has not been well studied, wildlife and land managers may arbitrarily choose the source population or base the source population on immediate availability when planning translocation projects. Similarly, an understanding of the optimal proportion of individuals from different age and sex classes for translocation would benefit translocation planning. During 2006 and 2007, we captured and translocated 125 mountain quail from 2 ecologically distinct areas: 38 from southern California and 87 from southwestern Oregon. We released mountain quail in the Bennett Hills of south-central Idaho. We radio-marked and monitored a subsample of 58 quail and used them for a 2-part survival analysis. Cumulative survival probability was 0.23 ± 0.05 (SE) at 150 days post-release. We first examined an a priori hypothesis (model) that survival varied between the 2 distinct source populations. We found that source population did not explain variation in survival. This result suggests that wildlife managers have flexibility in selecting source populations for mountain quail translocation efforts. In a post hoc examination, we pooled the quail across source populations and evaluated differences in survival probabilities between sex and age classes. The most parsimonious model indicated that adult male survival was substantially less than survival rates of other mountain quail age and sex classes (i.e., interaction between sex and age). This result suggests that translocation success could benefit by translocating yearling males rather than adult males, perhaps because adult male breeding behavior results in vulnerability to predators

Adult survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in a Pacific colony

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Scott A.; Roberts, Bay D.; Fadely, Brian S.

1993-01-01

Breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla survived at a mean annual rate of 0.926 in four years at a colony in Alaska. Survival rates observed in sexed males (0.930) and females (0.937) did not differ significantly. The rate of return among nonbreeding Kittiwakes (0.839) was lower than that of known breeders, presumably because more nonbreeders moved away from the study plots where they were marked. Individual nonbreeders frequented sites up to 5 km apart on the same island, while a few established breeders moved up to 2.5 km between years. Mate retention in breeding Kittiwakes averaged 69% in three years. Among pairs that split, the cause of changing mates was about equally divided between death (46%) and divorce (54%). Average adult life expectancy was estimated at 13.0 years. Combined with annual productivity averaging 0.17 chick per nest, the observed survival was insufficient for maintaining population size. Rather, an irregular decline observed in the study colony since 1981 is consistent with the model of a closed population with little or no recruitment. Compared to their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific Kittiwakes have low productivity and high survival. The question arises whether differences reflect phenotypic plasticity or genetically determined variation in population parameters.

Comparative effectiveness of upfront esophagectomy versus induction chemoradiation in clinical stage T2N0 esophageal cancer: A decision analysis.

PubMed

Semenkovich, Tara R; Panni, Roheena Z; Hudson, Jessica L; Thomas, Theodore; Elmore, Leisha C; Chang, Su-Hsin; Meyers, Bryan F; Kozower, Benjamin D; Puri, Varun

2018-05-01

We compared the effectiveness of upfront esophagectomy versus induction chemoradiation followed by esophagectomy for overall survival in patients with clinical T2N0 (cT2N0) esophageal cancer. We also assessed the influence of the diagnostic uncertainty of endoscopic ultrasound on the expected benefit of chemoradiation. We created a decision analysis model representing 2 treatment strategies for cT2N0 esophageal cancer: upfront esophagectomy that may be followed by adjuvant therapy for upstaged patients and induction chemoradiation for all patients with cT2N0 esophageal cancer followed by esophagectomy. Parameter values within the model were obtained from published data, and median survival for pathologic subgroups was derived from the National Cancer Database. In sensitivity analyses, staging uncertainty of endoscopic ultrasound was introduced by varying the probability of pathologic upstaging. The baseline model showed comparable median survival for both strategies: 48.3 months for upfront esophagectomy versus 45.9 months for induction chemoradiation and surgery. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated induction chemoradiation was beneficial, with probability of upstaging > 48.1%, which is within the published range of 32% to 65% probability of pathologic upstaging after cT2N0 diagnosis. The presence of any of 3 key variables (size larger than 3 cm, high grade, or lymphovascular invasion) was associated with > 48.1% risk of upstaging, thus conferring a survival advantage to induction chemoradiation. The optimal treatment strategy for cT2N0 esophageal cancer depends on the accuracy of endoscopic ultrasound staging. High-risk features that confer increased probability of upstaging can inform clinical decision making to recommend induction chemoradiation for select cT2N0 patients. Copyright © 2018 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

A comparison between the use of Cox regression and the use of partial least squares-Cox regression to predict the survival of kidney-transplant patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solimun

2017-05-01

The aim of this research is to model survival data from kidney-transplant patients using the partial least squares (PLS)-Cox regression, which can both meet and not meet the no-multicollinearity assumption. The secondary data were obtained from research entitled "Factors affecting the survival of kidney-transplant patients". The research subjects comprised 250 patients. The predictor variables consisted of: age (X1), sex (X2); two categories, prior hemodialysis duration (X3), diabetes (X4); two categories, prior transplantation number (X5), number of blood transfusions (X6), discrepancy score (X7), use of antilymphocyte globulin(ALG) (X8); two categories, while the response variable was patient survival time (in months). Partial least squares regression is a model that connects the predictor variables X and the response variable y and it initially aims to determine the relationship between them. Results of the above analyses suggest that the survival of kidney transplant recipients ranged from 0 to 55 months, with 62% of the patients surviving until they received treatment that lasted for 55 months. The PLS-Cox regression analysis results revealed that patients' age and the use of ALG significantly affected the survival time of patients. The factor of patients' age (X1) in the PLS-Cox regression model merely affected the failure probability by 1.201. This indicates that the probability of dying for elderly patients with a kidney transplant is 1.152 times higher than that for younger patients.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schreiber, Leslie A.; Hansen, Christopher P.; Rumble, Mark A.

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations across North America have been declining due to degradation and fragmentation of sagebrush habitat. As part of a study quantifying greater sage-grouse demographics prior to construction of a wind energy facility, we estimated apparent net nest productivity and survival rate of chicks associated with radio-equipped female sage-grouse in Carbon County, Wyoming, USA. We estimated apparent net nest productivity using a weighted mean of the average brood size and used a modified logistic-exposure method to estimate daily chick survival over a 70-day time period. Apparent nest productivity was 2.79 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.46–4.12) inmore » 2011, 2.00 chicks per female (95% CI: 1.00–3.00) in 2012, and 1.54 chick per female (95% CI: 0.62–2.46) in 2013. Chick survival to 70 days post-hatch was 19.10% (95% CI: 6.22–37.42%) in 2011, 4.20% (95% CI: 0.84–12.31%) in 2012, and 16.05% (95% CI: 7.67–27.22%) in 2013. These estimates were low, yet within the range of other published survival rates. Chick survival was primarily associated with year and chick age, with minor effects of average temperature between surveys and hatch date. The variability in chick survival rates across years of our study suggests annual weather patterns may have large impacts on chick survival. Thus, management actions that increase the availability of food and cover for chicks may be necessary, especially during years with drought and above-average spring temperatures.« less

The impact of land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status on fire probability in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starrs, Carlin Frances; Butsic, Van; Stephens, Connor; Stewart, William

2018-03-01

The extent of wildfires in the western United States is increasing, but how land ownership, firefighting, and reserve status influence fire probability is unclear. California serves as a unique natural experiment to estimate the impact of these factors, as ownership is split equally between federal and non-federal landowners; there is a relatively large proportion of reserved lands where extractive uses are prohibited and fire suppression is limited; and land ownership and firefighting responsibility are purposefully not always aligned. Panel Poisson regression techniques and pre-regression matching were used to model changes in annual fire probability from 1950-2015 on reserve and non-reserve lands on federal and non-federal ownerships across four vegetation types: forests, rangelands, shrublands, and forests without commercial species. Fire probability was found to have increased over time across all 32 categories. A marginal effects analysis showed that federal ownership and firefighting was associated with increased fire probability, and that the difference in fire probability on federal versus non-federal lands is increasing over time. Ownership, firefighting, and reserve status, played roughly equal roles in determining fire probability, and were found to have much greater influence than average maximum temperature (°C) during summer months (June, July, August), average annual precipitation (cm), and average annual topsoil moisture content by volume, demonstrating the critical role these factors play in western fire regimes and the importance of including them in future analysis focused on understanding and predicting wildfire in the Western United States.

[The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study].

PubMed

Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y

2018-05-01

Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8(>23.77 months), the importance ranking showed that NMLN(0.366 6), margin(0.350 1), T stage(0.319 2) and pathological grade(0.258 9) were the top 4 prognosis factors influencing the postoperative MST.These four factors were taken as observation variables to get the probability of patients in different survival periods.Basing on these results, a survival prediction score system including NMLN, margin, T stage and pathological grade was designed, the median survival time(month) of 4-9 points were 66.8, 42.4, 26.0, 9.0, 7.5 and 2.3, respectively, there was a statistically significant difference in the different points( P <0.01). Conclusions: The survival prediction model of GBC based on Bayesian network has high accuracy.NMLN, margin, T staging and pathological grade are the top 4 risk factors affecting the survival of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative resection.The survival prediction score system based on these four factors could be used to predict the survival and to guide the decision making of patients with advanced GBC.

[Analysis of main risk factors causing foodborne diseases in food catering business].

PubMed

Fan, Yong-xiang; Liu, Xiu-mei; Bao, Yi-dan

2011-06-01

To study main risk factors that cause foodborne diseases in food catering business. Data from references and investigations conducted in food catering units were used to establish models which based on @Risk 4.5 with Monte Carlo method referring to food handling practice model (FHPM) to make risk assessment on factors of food contamination in food catering units. The Beta-Poisson models on dose-response relationship to Salmonella (developed by WHO/FAO and United States Department of Agriculture) and Vibrio parahaemolyticus (developed by US FDA) were used in this article to analyze the dose-response relationship of pathogens. The average probability of food poisoning by consuming Salmonella contaminated cooked meat under refrigeration was 1.96 × 10(-4) which was 1/2800 of the food under non-refrigeration (the average probability of food poisoning was 0.35 at room temperature 25°C). The average probability by consuming 6 hours stored meat under room temperature was 0.11 which was 16 times of 2 hours storage (6.79 × 10(-3)). The average probability by consuming contaminated meat without fully cooking was 1.71 × 10(-4) which was 100 times of consuming fully cooked meat (1.88 × 10(-6)). The probability growth of food poisoning by consuming Vibrio parahaemolyticus contaminated fresh seafood was proportional with contamination level and prevalence. The primary contamination level, storage temperature and time, cooking process and cross contamination are important factors of catering food safety.

[Principles of radiotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer].

PubMed

Esik, Olga; Horváth, Akos; Bajcsay, András; Hideghéty, Katalin; Agócs, László; Pikó, Béla; Lengyel, Zsolt; Petrányi, Agota; Pisch, Julianna

2002-01-01

The long-term survival probability for Hungarian lung cancer patients is 10% worse than the best results published in the most highly developed countries (the mean 5-year survival probability in Hungary is 5%, in contrast with the 15% survival probability in the USA). On the basis of the international recommendations and personal experience, an attempt was made to formulate the guidelines for radiotherapy as one of the fundamental non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment modalities for national use. An expert panel was set up comprising physicians from 6 radiotherapeutic centers (the National Institute of Oncology / Semmelweis University, Budapest; the Beth Israel Medical Center, New York; the University of Kaposvár; the University of Essen; the University of Debrecen; and the County Hospital of Gyula). Experts in two important medical fields closely related to radiotherapy (surgery and diagnostic imaging) were also engaged in the elaboration of the manuscript. Discussion of the most important principles of the radiotherapy and an overview of the prognostic factors was followed by a critical analysis of the protocols applied in the radiotherapy of Hungarian NSCLC patients during recent decades. The new guidelines suggested for the radiotherapy of NSCLC are presented separately for the postoperative period, marginally resectable tumors, and the aggressive or non-aggressive radiotherapy of inoperable tumors. Detailed accounts are given of the techniques of external irradiation and brachytherapy, and of the acute and late radiation-induced damage of normal tissues. The authors believe that this document may be instrumental in improving the survival index of Hungarian NSCLC patients in the near future.

Conditional survival of pediatric, adolescent, and young adult soft tissue sarcoma and bone tumor patients.

PubMed

Ou, Judy Y; Spraker-Perlman, Holly; Dietz, Andrew C; Smits-Seemann, Rochelle R; Kaul, Sapna; Kirchhoff, Anne C

2017-10-01

Survival estimates for soft tissue sarcomas (STS) and malignant bone tumors (BT) diagnosed in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult patients are not easily available. We present survival estimates based on a patient having survived a defined period of time (conditional survival). Conditional survival estimates for the short-term were calculated for patients from diagnosis to the first five years after diagnosis and for patients surviving in the long-term (up to 20 years after diagnosis). We identified 703 patients who were diagnosed with a STS or BT at age ≤25 years from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2012 at a large pediatric oncology center in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. We obtained cancer type, age at diagnosis, primary site, and demographic data from medical records, and vital status through the National Death Index. Cancer stage was available for a subset of the cohort through the Utah Cancer Registry. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, calculated survival estimates for all analyses. Short-term survival improves over time for both sarcomas. Short-term survival for STS from diagnosis (Year 0) did not differ by sex, but short-term survival starting from 1-year post diagnosis was significantly worse for male patients (Survival probability 1-year post-diagnosis [SP1]:77% [95% CI:71-83]) than female patients (SP1:86% [81-92]). Survival for patients who were diagnosed at age ≤10 years (Survival probability at diagnosis [SP0]:85% [79-91]) compared to diagnosis at ages 16-25 years (SP0:67% [59-75]) was significantly better at all time-points from diagnosis to 5-years post-diagnosis. Survival for axial sites (SP0:69% [63-75]) compared to extremities (SP0:84% [79-90]) was significantly worse from diagnosis to 1-year post-diagnosis. Survival for axial BT (SP0: 64% [54-74] was significantly worse than BT in the extremities (SP0:73% [68-79]) from diagnosis to 3-years post diagnosis. Relapsed patients of both sarcoma types had significantly worse short-term survival than non-relapsed patients. Long-term survival for STS in this cohort is 65% at diagnosis, and improves to 86% 5-years post-diagnosis. BT survival improves from 51% at diagnosis to 78% at 5-years post-diagnosis. Conditional survival for short- and long-term STS and BT improve as time from diagnosis increases. Short-term survival was significantly affected by patients' sex, age at diagnosis, cancer site, and relapse status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Six-dimensional quantum dynamics study for the dissociative adsorption of HCl on Au(111) surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Tianhui; Fu, Bina; Zhang, Dong H., E-mail: zhangdh@dicp.ac.cn

The six-dimensional quantum dynamics calculations for the dissociative chemisorption of HCl on Au(111) are carried out using the time-dependent wave-packet approach, based on an accurate PES which was recently developed by neural network fitting to density functional theory energy points. The influence of vibrational excitation and rotational orientation of HCl on the reactivity is investigated by calculating the exact six-dimensional dissociation probabilities, as well as the four-dimensional fixed-site dissociation probabilities. The vibrational excitation of HCl enhances the reactivity and the helicopter orientation yields higher dissociation probability than the cartwheel orientation. A new interesting site-averaged effect is found for the titlemore » molecule-surface system that one can essentially reproduce the six-dimensional dissociation probability by averaging the four-dimensional dissociation probabilities over 25 fixed sites.« less

Diameter growth, survival, and volume estimates for trees in Indiana and Illinois.

Treesearch

W. Brad Smith; Stephen R. Shifley

1984-01-01

Measurements of more that 15,000 Indiana and Illinois trees were summarized by species and diameter class into tables of mean annual diameter growth, annual probability of survival, net cubic foot volume, and net board foot volume. In the absence of better forecasting techniques, this information can be utilized to project short-term changes for Indiana and Illinois...

Looking to the Future: Will Behavior Analysis Survive and Prosper?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poling, Alan

2010-01-01

Behavior analysis as a discipline currently is doing relatively well. How it will do in the future is unclear and depends on how the field, and the world at large, changes. Five current characteristics of the discipline that appear to reduce the probability that it will survive and prosper are discussed and suggestions for improvement are offered.…

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

1999-06-01

The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.