CENTRAL CAROLINA VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSION STUDY (FINAL REPORT)

EPA Science Inventory

A study to characterize the exhaust emissions from a light-duty fleet of in-use vehicles representative of central North Carolina was conducted in 1999 during both a winter phase (February) and a summer phase (June - July). Summer temperatures averaged 78 F, while the winter te...

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Assessment of air quality in a commercial cattle transport vehicle in Swedish summer and winter conditions.

PubMed

Wikner, I; Gebresenbet, G; Nilsson, C

2003-03-01

Transport by road can induce significant stress in cattle. Thermal stress is among the main stress producing factors during transport. The provision of ventilation in livestock transport vehicles is usually through openings along the sides of the vehicle. The incoming air will affect air quality inside by regulating temperature, relative humidity, gas levels and levels of other contaminants. The aim of the present investigation was to map out the air quality in a commercial cattle transport vehicle under various climatic conditions and with varying stocking densities and transport times. Distributions of air temperature, relative humidity and concentrations of ammonia, carbon dioxide, oxygen and methane have been determined during 35 experimental journeys. In average the mean temperature inside the compartment was about 3 degrees C and 6 degrees C higher than outside temperature in summer (+7.8(-)+24.0 degrees C) and winter (-24.3(-)+12.7 degrees C) conditions respectively. The temperature increment inside, as could be expected from theory, increased with reduced ventilation and increased animal density. Many stops to load new animals lowered the temperature increment and relative humidity in winter time. In summer more stops made the compartment temperature and relative humidity increase. The inside temperature distribution was less than about 3 degrees C during both summer and winter season. Average ammonia level varied between 3 and 6 ppm depending on stocking density and number of stops with a maximum value of 18 ppm. No detectable methane levels could be found inside the compartment at any time.

Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

2016-01-01

The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the first year of life were associated with smaller Age-1 winter flounder body size. For example, Age-1 winter flounder developing under conditions that differed by 1.9 °C in mean daily water temperature, averaged 98.7 mm total length (TL) and 123.1 mm TL, for the relatively cold vs. moderate years, respectively. More frequent cold temperature extremes associated with climate variability may negatively impact the overwintering capabilities of some flatfish near their cold temperature range limits, whereas cold-tolerant species may experience reduced growth, which imparts the ecological challenges associated with smaller body size.

A comparative statistical study of long-term agroclimatic conditions affecting the growth of US winter wheat: Distributions of regional monthly average precipitation on the Great Plains and the state of Maryland and the effect of agroclimatic conditions on yield in the state of Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J.

1981-01-01

A histogram analysis of average monthly precipitation over 30 and 84 year periods for both Maryland and Kansas was made and the results compared. A second analysis, a statistical assessment of the effect of average monthly precipitation on Kansas winter wheat yield was made. The data sets covered the three periods of 1941-1970, 1887-1970, and 1887-1921. Analyses of the limited data sets used (only the average monthly precipitation and temperature were correlated against yield) indicated that fall precipitation values, especially those of September and October, were more important to winter wheat yield than were spring values, particularly for the period 1941-1970.

Effects of living at two ambient temperatures on 24-h blood pressure and neuroendocrine function among obese and non-obese humans: a pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanikowska, Dominika; Sato, Maki; Iwase, Satoshi; Shimizu, Yuuki; Nishimura, Naoki; Inukai, Yoko; Sugenoya, Junichi

2013-05-01

The effects of environmental temperature on blood pressure and hormones in obese subjects in Japan were compared in two seasons: summer vs winter. Five obese (BMI, 32 ± 5 kg/m2) and five non-obese (BMI, 23 ±3 kg/m2) men participated in this experiment at latitude 35°10' N and longitude 136°57.9' E. The average environmental temperature was 29 ± 1 °C in summer and 3 ± 1 °C in winter. Blood samples were analyzed for leptin, ghrelin, catecholamines, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3), total cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin and glucose. Blood pressure was measured over the course of 24 h in summer and winter. A Japanese version of the Profile of Mood States (POMS) questionnaire was also administered each season. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures in obese men were significantly higher in winter (lower environmental temperatures) than in summer (higher environmental temperatures). Noradrenaline and dopamine concentrations were also significantly higher at lower environmental temperatures in obese subjects, but ghrelin, TSH, fT3, fT4, insulin and glucose were not significantly different in summer and winter between obese and non-obese subjects. Leptin, total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were significantly higher in winter in obese than non-obese men. Results from the POMS questionnaire showed a significant rise in Confusion at lower environmental temperatures (winter) in obese subjects. In this pilot study, increased blood pressure may have been due to increased secretion of noradrenaline in obese men in winter, and the results suggest that blood pressure control in obese men is particularly important in winter.

National Economic Development Procedures Manual. Coastal Storm Damage and Erosion

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

study area is temperate with warm summers and moderate winters. The annual temperature averages approximately 53 degrees Fahrenheit (*F). On average ...January is the coolest month with a mean temperature of 32°F and July is the warmest month. The average annual precipitation is about 45 inches with...0704.0188 Public rooing burden for rhr$ LoIlecton of ,nformaton .s estma eO to average I hour oer resiorse including the time for resrewing inttuctiOn

Historic Storminess Changes in North Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A. G.; Elliott, L.; Noone, S.; Hickey, K.; Foster, I.; Wadhams, P.; Mayewski, P.

2001-05-01

Reconstructed patterns of historic storminess (1870-1990 AD) for North Atlantic region as indicated by measurements from selected stations in Iceland, Faeroes, Scotland and Ireland show clear links with the climate "seesaw" winters first described by Van Loon and Rogers. The stormiest winters appear to have occurred during periods when measured Greenland air temperatures at Jacobshavn and reconstructed air temperatures from the Summit ice core site have been exceptionally low and when air temperature across northern Europe have been well above average. Maxima and minima of recorded winter storms for the various stations are also in agreement with the Sodium chronology from GISP2 that points to increased sea salt precipitation on Greenland ice at Summit during Greenland "below" periods of the climate seesaw.

Water, ice, and meteorological measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, 1997 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krimmel, Robert M.

1998-01-01

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow, firn, and ice melt were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington to determine the winter and net balances for the 1997 balance year. The 1997 winter balance, averaged over the glacier, was 3.71 meters, and the net balance was 0.63 meter. The winter balance was the greatest since 1972 (4.27 meters), and the second largest since the record began in 1959. The net balance, which was positive for the second year in a row, was 1.57 meters greater than the 1977-96 average (-0.94 meter). Runoff was measured from the glacier and an adjacent non-glacierized basin. Air temperature and precipitation were measured nearby. This report makes these data available to the glaciological and climatological community.

Severe European winters in a secular perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but those available are sufficiently distributed throughout Europe to ensure reliable results. Furthermore, the comparably dense network of long-term observations allows an appropriate quality checking within the network. Additionally, the large collective of homogenised monthly data enables assessing the quality of many daily series. Daily data are used to sum up negative values for the respective winter periods to create times series of "cold summations", which are a good indicator for the severeness of winters in most parts of Europe. Additionally, days below certain thresholds may be counted or summed up. Future work will include daily minimum and maximum temperatures, allowing calculating and applying an extensive set of climate indices, refining the work presented here.

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2013-01-01

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

Seasonal- and temperature-dependent variation in CNS ascorbate and glutathione levels in anoxia-tolerant turtles.

PubMed

Pérez-Pinzón, M A; Rice, M E

1995-12-24

We determined the ascorbic acid (ascorbate) and glutathione (GSH) contents of eight regions of the CNS from anoxia-tolerant turtles collected in summer and in winter. Ascorbate was of special interest because it is found in exceptionally high levels in the turtle CNS. The temperature-dependence of CNS ascorbate content was established by comparing levels in animals collected from two geographic zones with different average winter temperatures and in animals re-acclimated to different temperatures in the laboratory. The analytical method was liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection. Turtle ascorbate levels were 30-40% lower in animals acclimatized to winter (2 degrees C) than to summer (23 degrees C) in all regions of the CNS. Similarly, GSH levels were 20-30% lower in winter than in summer. Winter ascorbate levels were higher in turtles from Louisiana (19 degrees C) than in turtles acclimatized to winter in Wisconsin (2 degrees C). Summer and winter levels of ascorbate could be reversed by re-acclimating animals to cold (1 degree C) or warm (23 degrees C) temperatures for at least one week. CNS water content did not differ between cold- and warm-acclimated turtles. Taken together, the data indicated that ascorbate and GSH undergo significant seasonal variation and that the catalyst for change is environmental temperature. Steady-state ascorbate content showed a linear dependence on temperature, with a slope of 1.5% per degree C that was independent of CNS region. Lower levels of cerebral antioxidants in turtles exposed to colder temperatures were consistent with the decreased rate of cerebral metabolism that accompanies winter hibernation. Cerebral ascorbate and GSH levels in the turtle remained similar to or higher than those in mammals, even during winter, however. These findings support the notion that unique mechanisms of antioxidant regulation in the turtle contribute to their tolerance of the hypoxia-reoxygenation that characterizes diving behavior.

Subtropical mouse-tailed bats use geothermally heated caves for winter hibernation

PubMed Central

Levin, Eran; Plotnik, Brit; Amichai, Eran; Braulke, Luzie J.; Landau, Shmulik; Yom-Tov, Yoram; Kronfeld-Schor, Noga

2015-01-01

We report that two species of mouse-tailed bats (Rhinopoma microphyllum and R. cystops) hibernate for five months during winter in geothermally heated caves with stable high temperature (20°C). While hibernating, these bats do not feed or drink, even on warm nights when other bat species are active. We used thermo-sensitive transmitters to measure the bats’ skin temperature in the natural hibernacula and open flow respirometry to measure torpid metabolic rate at different ambient temperatures (Ta, 16–35°C) and evaporative water loss (EWL) in the laboratory. Bats average skin temperature at the natural hibernacula was 21.7 ± 0.8°C, and no arousals were recorded. Both species reached the lowest metabolic rates around natural hibernacula temperatures (20°C, average of 0.14 ± 0.01 and 0.16 ± 0.04 ml O2 g−1 h−1 for R. microphyllum and R. cystops, respectively) and aroused from torpor when Ta fell below 16°C. During torpor the bats performed long apnoeas (14 ± 1.6 and 16 ± 1.5 min, respectively) and had a very low EWL. We hypothesize that the particular diet of these bats is an adaptation to hibernation at high temperatures and that caves featuring high temperature and humidity during winter enable these species to survive this season on the northern edge of their world distribution. PMID:25740890

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Damage to southern Michigan conifers during the winter of 1976-77

Treesearch

Jonathan W. Wright; Donald DeHayes; Walter A. Lemmien

1977-01-01

In southern Michigan, the winter of 1976-1977 was marked by unseasonably cold weather in early December, prolonged cold weather in December and January, severe drought at the onset of cold weather, and by higher than average absolute minimum temperatures. Damage, presumably from the early December cold weather, was severe to southern seedlots of ponderosa pine,...

Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2007-01-01

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.

Intensity, frequency and spatial configuration of winter temperature inversions in the closed La Brevine valley, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitasse, Yann; Klein, Geoffrey; Kirchner, James W.; Rebetez, Martine

2017-11-01

Some of the world's valleys are famous for having particularly cold microclimates. The La Brevine valley, in the Swiss Jura Mountains, holds the record for the lowest temperature ever measured in an inhabited location in Switzerland. We studied cold air pools (CAPs) in this valley during the winter of 2014-2015 using 44 temperature data loggers distributed between 1033 and 1293 m asl. Our goals were to (i) describe the climatic conditions under which CAPs form in the valley, (ii) examine the spatial configuration and the temperature structure of the CAPs and (iii) quantify how often temperature inversions occur in winter using long-term series of temperature from the valley floor. Our results show that CAPs occurred every second night, on average, during the winter of 2014-2015 and were typically formed under cloudless, windless and high-pressure conditions. Strong temperature inversions up to 28 °C were detected between the valley floor and the surrounding hills. The spatial temperature structure of the CAPs varies among the different inversion days, with the upper boundary of the cold pool generally situated at about 1150 m asl. Although mean temperatures have increased in this area over the period 1960-2015 in connection with climate change, the occurrences of extreme cold temperatures did not decrease in winter and are highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic indices. This suggests that CAPs in sheltered valleys are largely decoupled from the free atmosphere temperature and will likely continue to occur in the next decades under warmer conditions.

On statistical irregularity of stratospheric warming occurrence during northern winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenkova, Elena N.; Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.

2017-10-01

Statistical analysis of dates of warming events observed during the years 1981-2016 at different stratospheric altitudes reveals their non-uniform distributions during northern winter months with maxima at the beginning of January, at the end of January - beginning of February and at the end of February. Climatology of zonal-mean zonal wind, deviations of temperature from its winter-averaged values, and planetary wave (PW) characteristics at high and middle northern latitudes in the altitude range from the ground up to 60 km is studied using the database of meteorological reanalysis MERRA. Climatological temperature deviations averaged over the 60-90°N latitudinal bands reveal cooler and warmer layers descending due to seasonal changes during the polar night. PW amplitudes and upward Eliassen-Palm fluxes averaged over 36 years have periodical maxima with the main maximum at the beginning of January at altitudes 40-50 km. During the above-mentioned intervals of more frequent occurrence of stratospheric warming events, maxima of PW amplitudes and Eliassen-Palm fluxes, also minima of eastward winds in the high-latitude northern stratosphere have been found. Climatological intra-seasonal irregularities of stratospheric warming dates could indicate reiterating phases of stratospheric vacillations in different years.

Press-pulse interactions: effects of warming, N deposition, altered winter precipitation, and fire on desert grassland community structure and dynamics.

PubMed

Collins, Scott L; Ladwig, Laura M; Petrie, Matthew D; Jones, Sydney K; Mulhouse, John M; Thibault, James R; Pockman, William T

2017-03-01

Global environmental change is altering temperature, precipitation patterns, resource availability, and disturbance regimes. Theory predicts that ecological presses will interact with pulse events to alter ecosystem structure and function. In 2006, we established a long-term, multifactor global change experiment to determine the interactive effects of nighttime warming, increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased winter precipitation on plant community structure and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland. In 2009, a lightning-caused wildfire burned through the experiment. Here, we report on the interactive effects of these global change drivers on pre- and postfire grassland community structure and ANPP. Our nighttime warming treatment increased winter nighttime air temperatures by an average of 1.1 °C and summer nighttime air temperature by 1.5 °C. Soil N availability was 2.5 times higher in fertilized compared with control plots. Average soil volumetric water content (VWC) in winter was slightly but significantly higher (13.0% vs. 11.0%) in plots receiving added winter rain relative to controls, and VWC was slightly higher in warmed (14.5%) compared with control (13.5%) plots during the growing season even though surface soil temperatures were significantly higher in warmed plots. Despite these significant treatment effects, ANPP and plant community structure were highly resistant to these global change drivers prior to the fire. Burning reduced the cover of the dominant grasses by more than 75%. Following the fire, forb species richness and biomass increased significantly, particularly in warmed, fertilized plots that received additional winter precipitation. Thus, although unburned grassland showed little initial response to multiple ecological presses, our results demonstrate how a single pulse disturbance can interact with chronic alterations in resource availability to increase ecosystem sensitivity to multiple drivers of global environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piazza, Bryan P.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Keim, B.D.

2010-01-01

Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

Winter fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from subalpine soils in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Clow, David W.

1998-01-01

Fluxes of CO2 and CH4 through a seasonal snowpack were measured in and adjacent to a subalpine wetland in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Gas diffusion through the snow was controlled by gas production or consumption in the soil and by physical snowpack properties. The snowpack insulated soils from cold midwinter air temperatures allowing microbial activity to continue through the winter. All soil types studied were net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere through the winter, whereas saturated soils in the wetland center were net emitters of CH4 and soils adjacent to the wetland were net CH4 consumers. Most sites showed similar temporal patterns in winter gas fluxes; the lowest fluxes occurred in early winter, and maximum fluxes occurred at the onset of snowmelt. Temporal changes in fluxes probably were related to changes in soil-moisture conditions and hydrology because soil temperatures were relatively constant under the snowpack. Average winter CO2 fluxes were 42.3, 31.2, and 14.6 mmol m−2 d−1 over dry, moist, and saturated soils, respectively, which accounted for 8 to 23% of the gross annual CO2emissions from these soils. Average winter CH4 fluxes were −0.016, 0.274, and 2.87 mmol m−2 d−1over dry, moist, and saturated soils, respectively. Microbial activity under snow cover accounted for 12% of the annual CH4 consumption in dry soils and 58 and 12% of the annual CH4 emitted from moist and saturated soils, respectively. The observed ranges in CO2 and CH4 flux through snow indicated that winter fluxes are an important part of the annual carbon budget in seasonally snow-covered terrains.

Effect of the El Nino/southern oscillation on Gulf of Mexico, winter, frontal-wave cyclones: 1960-1989. (Volumes I and II)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manty, R.E.

Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer Lamore » Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in cyclogenesis.« less

European Temperature Variability and Climate Forcing Over The Last 500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.; Dietrich, D.; Friedli, T. K.

We present seasonal temperature reconstructions back to 1500 for the European land areas (30W-40E; 35N-70N) on a dense 0.5x0.5 latitude by longitude grid. The reconstructions were developed using PC regression analysis based on the combina- tion of early instrumental station series of temperature and pressure and proxy data from Eurasian sites. The statistical relationships were derived over the 1901-1995 in- strumental period (New et al. 2000) and applied to the pre-1900 data. The reliability of the reconstruction and the time-dependent uncertainty ranges about the estimates are discussed. We derived a high precision winter (DJF), summer (JJA) and annual (J-D) mean Eu- ropean temperature time series from 1500-1998 through averaging of all the 5100 land gridpoints. We found several cold relapses and warm intervals on the decadal timescale, on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed. Warmer European winters were experienced in the first third of the 16th century, at the beginning of the 17th century and generally in the 20th century. The warmest decade was 1989-1998. Cooler winter conditions were found in the second part of the 16th century, during the Maunder Minimum and in most parts of the 19th century. The coldest decades in winter temperatures were 1586-1595 and the 1690s with 1.5C lower values compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Warm summers were observed from around 1530 to 1570, from the 1750s to the early 19th century, around 1950 and at the end of the 20th century. 1789-1798 and the 1990s were the warmest decades in summer temperatures. Cooler summer periods were prevalent from the 1570s to the beginning of the 17th century, in the middle of the 18th century and at the turn of the 20th century. The summers from 1902-1916 were among the coldest over the last 500 years. The low pass filtered timeseries of the annually averaged temperatures from 1500- 1950 were mainly below the 1961-1990 average. The yearly mean European tempera- ture are partly in agreement with Northern Hemispheric temperature variations (Mann et al. 1998). Finally, the statistical relationship between European annual temperature and recent estimates of climate forcing time series (Robertson et al. 2001) are presented.

222Rn variations in Mystery Cave, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lively, R.S.; Krafthefer, B.C.

1995-01-01

222Rn concentrations and meteorological parameters were measured at 4- h intervals over a 2-y period in Mystery Cave, southeastern Minnesota. Continuous radon monitors and meteorological sensors connected to data loggers were installed at several locations along commercial tour routes. 222Rn concentrations ranged as high as 25 kBq m-3 in summer and 20 kBq m-3 in winter. Average winter concentrations were lower than summer by at least a factor of two. Seasonal radon variations were correlative with outside air temperatures. During the winter, radon concentrations were observed to fluctuate periodically by factors of 20 or more in under 24 h. Both the long- and short-term variations are correlative with temperature- induced mixing of cave air with surface air.

Seasonal rhythms of body temperature in the free-ranging raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) with special emphasis on winter sleep.

PubMed

Mustonen, Anne-Mari; Asikainen, Juha; Kauhala, Kaarina; Paakkonen, Tommi; Nieminen, Petteri

2007-01-01

The raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) is the only canid with passive overwintering in areas with cold winters, but the depth and rhythmicity of wintertime hypothermia in the wild raccoon dog are unknown. To study the seasonal rhythms of body temperature (T(b)), seven free-ranging animals were captured and implanted with intra-abdominal T(b) loggers and radio-tracked during years 2004-2006. The average size of the home ranges was 306+/-26 ha, and the average 24 h T(b) was 38.0+/-<0.01 degrees C during the snow-free period (May-November). The highest and lowest T(b) were usually recorded around midnight (21:00-02:00 h) and between 05:00-11:00 h, respectively, and the range of the 24 h oscillations was 1.2+/-0.01 degrees C. The animals lost approximately 43+/-6% of body mass in winter (December-April), when the average size of the home ranges was 372+/-108 ha. During the 2-9-wk periods of passivity in January-March, the average 24 h T(b) decreased by 1.4-2.1 degrees C compared to the snow-free period. The raccoon dogs were hypothermic for 5 h in the morning (06:00-11:00 h), whereas the highest T(b) values were recorded between 16:00-23:00 h. The range of the 24 h oscillations increased by approximately 0.6 degrees C, and the rhythmicity was more pronounced than in the snow-free period. The ambient temperature and depth of snow cover were important determinants of the seasonal T(b) rhythms. The overwintering strategy of the raccoon dog resembled the patterns of winter sleep in bears and badgers, but the wintertime passivity of the species was more intermittent and the decrease in the T(b) less pronounced.

Features of Creation and Operation of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Countries with Difficult Climatic Conditions, for Example, in the Russian Federation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpukhin, K.; Terenchenko, A.

2016-11-01

The trend of increasing fleet of electric or hybrid vehicles and determines the extension of the geographical areas of operation, including the Northern areas with cold winter weather. Practically in all territory of Russia the average winter temperature is negative. With the winter temperatures can be below in Moscow -30°C, in Krasnoyarsk -50°C. Battery system can operate in a wide temperature range, but there are extremes that should be remembered all the time, especially in cold climates like Russia. In the operating instructions of the electric car Tesla Model S indicate that to save the battery don't use at temperatures below -15°C. The paper presents the dependence of the cooling time and heating of the battery cell at different ambient temperatures and provides guidance on allowable cooling time while using and not thermally insulated thermally containers Suggests using the temperature control on the basis of thermoelectric converters Peltier connection from the onboard electrical network of the electric vehicle.

Water, ice, meteorological, and speed measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, 1999 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krimmel, Robert M.

2001-01-01

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow, firn, and ice melt were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to determine the winter and net balances for the 1999 balance year. The 1999 winter snow balance, averaged over the glacier, was 3.59 meters, and the net balance was 1.02 meters. Since the winter balance record began in 1959, only three winters have had a higher winter balance. Since the net balance record began in 1953, only 2 years have had a greater positive net balance than 1999. Runoff was measured from the glacier and an adjacent non-glacierized basin. Air temperature, precipitation, and humidity were measured nearby, and ice speed was measured. This report makes these data available to the glaciological and climatological community.

Determining the Equation of State (EoS) Parameters for Ballistic Gelatin

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

standard deviation. The specific heat measured at room temperature reported in (Winter 1975) is approximately 1.13 cal/g/°C (= 4.73 J /g/K). Fig. 4...Piatt 2010) Table 3 Specific heat capacity, average heat capacity, and standard deviation Temperature (°C) Cp [ J /(g·K)] Cp Cp Cp Average Cp...density amorphous ice and their implications on pressure induced amorphization. J Chem Physics. 2005;122:124710. Appleby-Thomas GJ, Hazell PJ

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A

2014-12-01

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya.

PubMed

Dar, Reyaz Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Marazi, Asif

2014-04-01

Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.

Tempo-Spatial Variations of Ambient Ozone-Mortality Associations in the USA: Results from the NMMAPS Data.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Zeng, Weilin; Lin, Hualiang; Rutherford, Shannon; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Qian, Zhengmin; Feng, Baixiang; Ma, Wenjun

2016-08-26

Although the health effects of ambient ozone have been widely assessed, their tempo-spatial variations remain unclear. We selected 20 communities (ten each from southern and northern USA) based on the US National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) dataset. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to estimate the season-specific association between each 10 ppb (lag0-2 day average) increment in daily 8 h maximum ozone concentration and mortality in every community. The results showed that in the southern communities, a 10 ppb increment in ozone was linked to an increment of mortality of -0.07%, -0.17%, 0.40% and 0.27% in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. For the northern communities, the excess risks (ERs) were 0.74%, 1.21%, 0.52% and -0.65% in the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. City-specific ozone-related mortality effects were positively related with latitude, but negatively related with seasonal average temperature in the spring, summer and autumn seasons. However, a reverse relationship was found in the winter. We concluded that there were different seasonal patterns of ozone effects on mortality between southern and northern US communities. Latitude and seasonal average temperature were identified as modifiers of the ambient ozone-related mortality risks.

Tempo-Spatial Variations of Ambient Ozone-Mortality Associations in the USA: Results from the NMMAPS Data

PubMed Central

Liu, Tao; Zeng, Weilin; Lin, Hualiang; Rutherford, Shannon; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Qian, Zhengmin; Feng, Baixiang; Ma, Wenjun

2016-01-01

Although the health effects of ambient ozone have been widely assessed, their tempo-spatial variations remain unclear. We selected 20 communities (ten each from southern and northern USA) based on the US National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) dataset. A generalized linear model (GLM) was used to estimate the season-specific association between each 10 ppb (lag0-2 day average) increment in daily 8 h maximum ozone concentration and mortality in every community. The results showed that in the southern communities, a 10 ppb increment in ozone was linked to an increment of mortality of −0.07%, −0.17%, 0.40% and 0.27% in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. For the northern communities, the excess risks (ERs) were 0.74%, 1.21%, 0.52% and −0.65% in the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. City-specific ozone-related mortality effects were positively related with latitude, but negatively related with seasonal average temperature in the spring, summer and autumn seasons. However, a reverse relationship was found in the winter. We concluded that there were different seasonal patterns of ozone effects on mortality between southern and northern US communities. Latitude and seasonal average temperature were identified as modifiers of the ambient ozone-related mortality risks. PMID:27571094

Antarctica as a Model for the Human Exploration of Mars

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-07-19

that threaten the minds of men confined for several months with a small group of companions . Nevertheless, the strain exposed psychological weaknesses...continents. Winter temperatures average -60F and winds exceeding 150 miles per hour are not uncommon. Plant and animal life are largely confined to the... Immunoglobulin concentrations have also been found to undergo a significant decline during the Antarctic winter (Muchmore, Tatem, Worley, Shurley, and

Developmental arrest during embryonic development of the common chameleon (Chamaeleo chamaeleon) in Spain.

PubMed

Andrews, Robin M; Díaz-Paniagua, Carmen; Marco, Adolfo; Portheault, Alexandre

2008-01-01

Embryonic development of the common chameleon, Chamaeleo chamaeleon, was monitored from oviposition to hatching at a field site in southwestern Spain and in the laboratory under five experimental temperature regimes. Embryos were diapausing gastrulae at the time of oviposition; developmental arrest in the field continued as cold torpor during winter. Postarrest development in the field commenced in April, and hatching occurred in August, for a total incubation period of 10.5 mo. In the laboratory, one group of eggs was incubated at a constant warm (26 degrees C) temperature. The remaining treatments simulated field conditions and consisted of initial periods of warm temperature of 0, 27, 46, and 71 d, a subsequent 4-mo period of cold winter (16 degrees C) temperature, and a final period of warm (26 degrees C) temperature. Embryos in the constant warm temperature treatment were in diapause an average of 3 mo, with clutch means ranging from 2 to 4 mo. Hatching among clutches occurred over 2 mo. In contrast, for field and experimental eggs that experienced cold winter conditions, hatching within treatments occurred over 2-14 d; "winter" conditions synchronized development. The length of time between the end of cold conditions and hatching did not differ among treatments; development thus resumed as soon as temperature was suitable regardless of the initial period of warm temperature. Diapause in nature thus insures that embryos remain gastrulae after oviposition despite nest temperatures that may be warm enough to support development.

Striped bass annual site fidelity and habitat utilization in J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir, South Carolina-Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

2002-01-01

Forty-eight adult striped bass Morone saxatilis (3.2-19.1 kg) were captured by electrofishing in the tailrace of Richard B. Russell Dam and in the upper reaches of two major tributaries; they were implanted with temperature-sensitive radio transmitters and tracked approximately bimonthly for 20 months. As J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir downstream from the dam became thermally stratified in May, fish vacated the tributaries. From June to October, all striped bass were found within the reservoir's historical Savannah River channel. By August, most of the instrumented fish were found in the upper section of the reservoir, where optimal habitat was available throughout the summer owing to cool, artificially oxygenated hypolimnetic discharges from Richard B. Russell Dam. In mid-October the reservoir destratified, and fish dispersed from their up-reservoir summering areas and redistributed themselves throughout the reservoir. During early winter, the striped bass returned to tributary habitat or down-reservoir areas and generally used these locations throughout the winter. The fish exhibited a high degree of site fidelity to their summering areas, source tributaries (after fall dispersal and throughout the winter), and spring spawning areas. Mean movement rates were highest in the spring and fall, corresponding to the migration from tributaries in May and the return migration after fall dispersal. Mean movement rates were lowest in summer and winter, corresponding to the periods of high fidelity to summering and wintering areas. The average monthly temperatures and dissolved oxygen concentrations in areas used by striped bass were 19.0-20.4??C and 4.86-6.44 mg/L during May-October, which corresponded to average monthly habitat suitability index values of 0.76-0.98. Striped bass avoided temperatures above 25.1??C and dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 2.3 mg/L.

Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests

PubMed Central

Jungqvist, Gunnar; Oni, Stephen K.; Teutschbein, Claudia; Futter, Martyn N.

2014-01-01

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions. PMID:24747938

Effect of climate change on soil temperature in Swedish boreal forests.

PubMed

Jungqvist, Gunnar; Oni, Stephen K; Teutschbein, Claudia; Futter, Martyn N

2014-01-01

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia.

PubMed

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E W R

2013-05-01

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.; Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.; Wu, M. L.; Godbole, R.; Herman, G.; Sud, Y.

1979-01-01

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

Effect of Sowing Quantity on Soil Temperature and Yield of Winter Wheat under Straw Strip Mulching in Arid Region of Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Xuemei; Chai, Yuwei; Li, Rui; Li, Bowen; Cheng, Hongbo; Chang, Lei; Chai, Shouxi

2018-01-01

In order to explore the characteristics and relationship between soil temperature and yield of winter wheat, under different sowing quantities conditions of straw mulching conventional drilling in Northwest China, this study took Lantian 26 as material, under the whole corn mulching conventional drilling in Changhe town and Pingxiang town, setting up 3 different seeding quantities of 270 kg/ha (SSMC1), 324 kg/ha (SSMC2) and 405 kg/ha (SSMC3), to study the difference of soil temperature during the growth period of winter wheat and its correlation with yield components. Results showed: the average soil temperature of 0∼25cm in two ecological zones in the whole growth period have a significant change with the increase of sowing quantities; too much seeding had a sharp drop in soil temperature; the highest temperature of SSMC in Changhe town was the middle quantity of SSMC 2; the highest temperature of SSMC in Pingxiang town was the lowest sowing quantity of SSMC1. Diurnal variation of soil temperature at all growth stages showed: with the increase of SSMC, in the morning it increased with the increase of soil depth, noon and evening reducing with the depth of the soil. The average soil temperature of SSMC2 was higher than that of in all the two ecological zones in the whole growth period of SSMC.The maximum day temperature difference of each treatment was at noon. With the increase of SSMC, the yield increase varied with two ecological zones. SSMC of the local conventional sowing quantity of 270kg/ha SSMC1 yield was the highest in Changhe Town. SSMC of the middle sowing quantity SSMC2 of 324kg/ha yield was the highest in Pingxiang town. The difference of grain number per spike was the main cause of yield difference among these 3 treatments. Correlation analysis showed: the correlation among the yield and yield components, growth index and soil temperature varied with different ecological zones; thousand kernel weight and grain number per ear (.964** and.891**) had a very significant positive correlation with the yields in Changhe Town, but thousand kernel weight and grain number per ear (.708* and.718*) had a significant positive correlation with yield in Pingxiang Town. There was a significant positive correlation between harvest index and 10cm soil temperature (.763*). But in Pingxiang Town grain number per ear and 15cm soil temperature showed a significant positive correlation (.671*); 15cm soil temperature and the average temperature of 0∼25cm soil layer in the whole growth period (-.687* and -.698*) had a significant negative correlation with the number of panicles per unit area; there was a very significant negative correlation between plant height and average temperature of 0∼25cm in the whole growth period (-.906**). Thus, the changes of soil temperature under SSMC different sowing quantity have indirect effect on the yield of winter wheat.

Variation of Surface Air Temperature in Relation to El Nino and Cataclysmic Volcanic Eruptions, 1796-1882

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1999-01-01

During the contemporaneous interval of 1796-1882 a number of significant decreases in temperature are found in the records of Central England and Northern Ireland. These decreases appear to be related to the occurrences of El Nino and/or cataclysmic volcanic eruptions. For example, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the yearly onsets of 20 El Nino of moderate to stronger strength, shows that, on average, the change in temperature varied by about +/- 0.3 C from normal being warmer during the boreal fall-winter leading up to the El Nino year and cooler during the spring-summer of the El Nino year. Also, the influence of El Nino on Central England temperatures appears to last about 1-2 years. Similarly, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the month of eruption for 26 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, shows that, on average, the change in temperature decreased by about 0.1 - 0.2 C, typically, 1-2 years after the eruption, although for specific events, like Tambora, the decrease was considerably greater. Additionally, tropical eruptions appear to produce greater changes in temperature than extratropical eruptions, and eruptions occurring in boreal spring-summer appear to produce greater changes in temperature than those occurring in fall-winter.

The winter season - Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambeth, David O.; Faanes, Craig A.

1981-01-01

This winter was hardly a winter by usual standards. At Grand Forks six record highs were set in February, a month which averaged 11°F above normal, and a -20° reading was not recorded the entire season for the first time in 50 years. Fort Peck Lake in Montana finally iced over February 12, only to begin reopening three days later (CMC). Temperatures reached into the 70s in South Dakota and that state was "powdery dry" as a result of the driest weather in 37 years (EMS, DLB). Across the Region, snow cover was either absent or inconsequential.

[Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

PubMed

Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

2017-12-01

The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

Late Holocene Winter Temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean and Their Relation to Cultural Changes: The Kocain Cave Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Fleitmann, Dominik; Badertscher, Seraina; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Tuysuz, Okan

2015-04-01

Based on the δ13C profile of a stalagmite from the Kocain Cave in southern Turkey, we present a new proxy record of winter temperatures for the Eastern Mediterranean covering the last ~5500 years. In this region precisely-dated and highly-resolved paleoclimate records for the cold season are almost non-existent. The comparison of the most recent part of the Kocain record with meteorological observations reveals that stalagmite δ13C values correlate on decadal scale with the amount of snowfall above the cave, which correlates well with average winter temperatures. More negative δ13C values indicate higher drip rates in the cave due to more efficient infiltration during snowmelt above Kocain Cave, during colder winters. Cold periods in the rest of the record coincide with widespread glacier advances, especially with the ones in the Alps during the Bronze Age - Iron Age transition (from ~1000 BC on) and the late Little Ice Age (~1600 to 1850 AD). This further supports the interpretation of δ13C as a temperature proxy. Although winters during the Medieval Climate Anomaly were not continuously warm in the Eastern Mediterranean, winter warmth in the modern era was matched or exceeded several times in the last ~5700 years, especially during the time of Minoan civilization in Crete (~2700 to 1200 BC). Moreover, we provide evidence for the important role of winter cold and drought in the events leading to the unrest in the 16th century Anatolia during the Ottoman rule. Kocain Cave record brings insights into several climatically-induced historical changes in the Eastern Mediterranean, and has the potential to be a key record in a region with a long and vibrant history.

Body temperature null distributions in reptiles with nonzero heat capacity: seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Elsey, Ruth M; Trosclair, Phillip L

2003-01-01

Regulation of body temperature may increase fitness of animals by ensuring that biochemical and physiological processes proceed at an optimal rate. The validity of current methods of testing whether or not thermoregulation in reptiles occurs is often limited to very small species that have near zero heat capacity. The aim of this study was to develop a method that allows estimation of body temperature null distributions of large reptiles and to investigate seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Continuous body temperature records of wild alligators were obtained from implanted dataloggers in winter (n=7, mass range: 1.6-53.6 kg) and summer (n=7, mass range: 1.9-54.5 kg). Body temperature null distributions were calculated by randomising behavioural postures, thereby randomly altering relative animal surface areas exposed to different avenues of heat transfer. Core body temperatures were predicted by calculations of transient heat transfer by conduction and blood flow. Alligator body temperatures follow regular oscillations during the day. Occasionally, body temperature steadied during the day to fall within a relatively narrow range. Rather than indicating shuttling thermoregulation, however, this pattern could be predicted from random movements. Average daily body temperature increases with body mass in winter but not in summer. Daily amplitudes of body temperature decrease with increasing body mass in summer but not in winter. These patterns result from differential exposure to heat transfer mechanisms at different seasons. In summer, alligators are significantly cooler than predictions for a randomly moving animal, and the reverse is the case in winter. Theoretical predictions show, however, that alligators can be warmer in winter if they maximised their sun exposure. We concluded that alligators may not rely exclusively on regulation of body temperature but that they may also acclimatise biochemically to seasonally changing environmental conditions.

Major winter and nonwinter floods in selected basins in New York and Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, Walter Basil

1947-01-01

The scientific design of flood-control works is based on an evaluation of the hydrologic factors basic to flood events, particularly how rainfall and snow runoff, soil conditions, and channel influences can combine to produce greater or lesser floods. For this purpose an analysis of the pertinent hydrologic data is needed. The methods of analysis adopted should conform as closely as possible to those already in use and must be adapted to the quality of the available information. Maximum floods in 8 basins in New York and Pennsylvania during the winter and nonwinter months were studied, a total of 21 floods. The most outstanding winter flood of record in the North Atlantic region was that of March 1936. Rainfall plus snow melt in the basins studied ranged between 3.04 and 6.87 inches, and associated volumes of direct runoff from 1.88 to 5.63 inches. Winter floods have a common characteristic in their relation to freezing temperature. The antecedent periods, representing a period of snow accumulation and frost penetration, are below freezing, and the flood itself is contemporaneous with a period of above-freezing temperatures, usually associated with rain, during which the previously accumulated snow is melted. A second common characteristic of major winter floods is their tendency to be associated with widespread causal meteorologic conditions. There was a more complete conversion of rainfall and snow melt into runoff during the winter storms studied than during the wettest nonwinter flood. Snow melt during winter floods ranged from 0.04 to 0.07 inch per degree-day above 32° F. The depth of mean areal rainfall produced by the nonwinter storms studied ranged from 3.05 to 4.96 inches. The maximum 24-hour quantity at single stations was 14 inches, which was measured during the storm of July 1935 in New York. The volume of direct runoff ranged between 1.39 and 3.41 inches. The portion of rainfall that was converted into runoff varied in accordance with the rate of antecedent base flow, expressed in second-feet per square mile, and emphasized the influence of antecedent conditions. The average volume of direct runoff during winter floods was 4.24 inches, and the average during nonwinter floods was 2.44 inches. The latter, however, were more concentrated as to time, tending to compensate for large volume of runoff in winter, so that the crest rates of direct runoff averaged 0.056 inches per hour during the winter and 0.051 inches during the nonwinter period.

Water, ice, and meteorological measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, 2000-01 balance years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krimmel, Robert M.

2002-01-01

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow, firn, and ice melt were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to determine the winter and net balances for the 2000 and 2001 balance years. In 2000, the winter balance, averaged over the glacier, was 3.32 meters, and the net balance was 0.38 meters. The winter balance was the ninth highest since the record began in 1959. The net balance was greater than 33 of the 41 years since 1959. In 2001, the winter balance was 1.90 meters, and net balance was -1.57 meters. The winter balance was lower than all but 4 years since 1959, and the net balance was more negative than all but 5 other years. Runoff was measured from the glacier basin and an adjacent non-glacierized basin. Air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation were measured nearby. Ice displacements were measured for the 1998-2001 period.

How much have California winters warmed over the last century?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K. J.; Williams, A. P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-09-01

Extraordinarily warm 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter temperatures in California accompanied by drought conditions contributed to low snow accumulations and stressed water resources, giving rise to the question: how much has California's climate warmed over the last century? We examine long-term trends in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) daily temperatures in winter estimated from five gridded data sets. Resulting trends show some consistent features, such as higher trends in Tmin than Tmax; however, substantial differences exist in the trend magnitudes and spatial patterns due mostly to the nature of spatial interpolation employed in the different data sets. Averaged across California over 1920-2015, Tmax trends vary from -0.30 to 1.2°C/century, while Tmin trends range from 1.2 to 1.9°C/century. The differences in temperature strongly impact modeled changes in snow water equivalent over the last century (from -5.0 to -7.6 km3/century).

Performance Analysis of Air-to-Water Heat Pump in Latvian Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazjonovs, Janis; Sipkevics, Andrejs; Jakovics, Andris; Dancigs, Andris; Bajare, Diana; Dancigs, Leonards

2014-12-01

Strategy of the European Union in efficient energy usage demands to have a higher proportion of renewable energy in the energy market. Since heat pumps are considered to be one of the most efficient heating and cooling systems, they will play an important role in the energy consumption reduction in buildings aimed to meet the target of nearly zero energy buildings set out in the EU Directive 2010/31/EU. Unfortunately, the declared heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) corresponds to a certain outdoor temperature (+7 °C), therefore different climate conditions, building characteristics and settings result in different COP values during the year. The aim of this research is to investigate the Seasonal Performance factor (SPF) values of air-to-water heat pump which better characterize the effectiveness of heat pump in a longer selected period of time, especially during the winter season, in different types of residential buildings in Latvian climate conditions. Latvia has four pronounced seasons of near-equal length. Winter starts in mid-December and lasts until mid-March. Latvia is characterized by cold, maritime climate (duration of the average heating period being 203 days, the average outdoor air temperature during the heating period being 0.0 °C, the coldest five-day average temperature being -20.7 °C, the average annual air temperature being +6.2 °C, the daily average relative humidity being 79 %). The first part of this research consists of operational air-towater heat pump energy performance monitoring in different residential buildings during the winter season. The second part of the research takes place under natural conditions in an experimental construction stand which is located in an urban environment in Riga, Latvia. The inner area of this test stand, where air-to-water heat pump performance is analyzed, is 9 m2. The ceiling height is 3 m, all external wall constructions (U = 0.16 W/(m2K)) have ventilated facades. To calculate SPF, the experimental stand is equipped with sensors which provide measurements for electricity consumption and gained heat energy.

Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

PubMed

Williams, Augusta A; Laird, Neil F

2018-03-01

This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s -1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s -1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s -1 , or 61 km h -1 . In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Augusta A.; Laird, Neil F.

2018-03-01

This study provides insight from the use of weather radar observations to understand the characteristics of the eared grebe migration near the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and provides unique information on weather conditions connected to these migration events. Doppler weather radar measurements from the Salt Lake City, Utah WSR-88D radar site (KMTX), along with meteorological surface and rawinsonde data, were used to identify and examine 281 eared grebe migration events across 15 winters from 1997/1998 through 2011/2012. An average of about 19 migration events occurred each winter with considerable interannual variability, as well as large variance in the spatial area and number of birds departing the GSL during each event. The migration events typically occurred during clear sky conditions in the presence of surface high pressure and colder than average surface temperatures. Migration events began 55 min after sunset, on average across the winter seasons, and in one case we demonstrate that an extended, nonstop flight was initiated of the departing eared grebes to northern Mexico. Eared grebes leaving the GSL largely flew above the freezing level with a mean northerly tailwind at flight altitude of 3.1 m s-1 and a westerly, cross-flight wind of 5.0 m s-1 while having an average flight speed at cruising altitude of 16.9 m s-1, or 61 km h-1. In addition to determining the variability of meteorological conditions during migration events across the 15 winters, atmospheric conditions during the largest migration event observed are presented and discussed.

A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiubao; Ren, Guoyu; Ren, Yuyu; Fang, Yihe; Liu, Yulian; Xue, Xiaoying; Zhang, Panfeng

2017-07-01

Characteristics and causes of global warming hiatus (GWH) phenomenon have received much attention in recent years. Monthly mean data of land surface air maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and mean temperature (Tmean) of 118 national stations since 1951 in Northeast China are used in this paper to analyze the changes of land surface air temperature in recent 64 years with an emphasis on the GWH period. The results show that (1) from 1951 to 2014, the warming trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are 0.20, 0.42, and 0.34 °C/decade respectively for the whole area, with the warming rate of Tmin about two times of Tmax, and the upward trend of Tmean obviously higher than mainland China and global averages; (2) in the period 1998-2014, the annual mean temperature consistently exhibits a cooling phenomenon in Northeast China, and the trends of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean are -0.36, -0.14, and -0.28 °C/decade respectively; (3) in the GWH period, seasonal mean cooling mainly occurs in northern winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), but northern summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) still experience a warming, implying that the annual mean temperature decrease is controlled by the remarkable cooling of winter and spring; (4) compared to the global and mainland China averages, the hiatus phenomenon is more evident in Northeast China, and the cooling trends are more obvious in the cold season; (5) the Northeast China cooling trend occurs under the circulation background of the negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO), and it is also closely related to strengthening of the Siberia High (SH) and the East Asian Trough (EAT), and the stronger East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the GWH period.

Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

2015-05-01

The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Terra Data Confirm Warm, Dry U.S. Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's winter was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually warm and dry this past winter. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably warm from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the winter of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of warm temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Barnett, Adrian G

2015-01-01

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20-30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed Changes in the Himalayan Glaciers: Multiple Driving Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romshoo, Shakil; Rashid, Irfan; Abdullah, Tariq; Fayaz, Midhat

2017-04-01

There is lack of credible knowledge about Himalayan cryosphere as is evident from the contradictory reports about the status of the glaciers in the region. Glacier behavior in Himalaya has to be understood and interpreted in light of the multiple driving factors; topography, climate and anthropocene. The observed changes in Himalayan glaciers, determined by studying a few hundred glaciers in the Himalaya, indicated that the glacier response varies across different ranges. Satellite images (1990-2015), DEM, altimetry data supported by selective field campaigns, were used to map the changes in glacier boundaries, snout, ELA, AAR, volume, thickness, debris cover and several other glacier parameters. The glaciers across the six ranges of Pir Panjal (PR), Greater Himalaya (GH), Shamasbari (SR), Zanaskar (ZR), Leh (LR) and Karakorum (KR) showed quite varied changes. It was observed that the glaciers in the KR show the least glacial area recession (1.59%) primarily due to the extreme cold winters with -18oC average temperature. Other glacial parameters like snout, ELA, AAR and glacier volume also showed very little changes in the KR during the period. The glaciers in the LR, with an average winter temperature of -6o C, have shrunk, on an average, by 4.19 % during the period, followed by the glaciers in the ZR showing a loss of 5.46%. The highest glacier retreat of 7.72% and 6.94% was observed in the GH and SR with the average winter temperature of -1.3oc and -6.2oc respectively. In the PR, almost all the glaciers have vanished during the last 6-7 decades due to the increasing winter temperatures. The glaciers in the Kashmir showed an overall recession of 26.40% in area which is one of the highest reported for the Himalayan glaciers. The glaciers in the valley showed the maximum reduction in thickness (2.56m) using the IceSat data from 2000-08 while as the Karakoram glaciers showed the least reduction in thickness (0.53m). It was found that the maximum recession of glacial area was observed in the mountainous ranges with altitudes below 4500m asl The glaciers above 5000m showed the lowest rate of glacial retreat in the region. The other parameters like snout retreat, ELA changes, volume and other parameters observed in all the six ranges also showed strong correlation with topography. Detailed analyses of the topographic, climatic and black carbon emission data was carried out to understand the enhanced glacial recession observed in the Kashmir valley. The climate change signals are quite loud and clear in the region and the higher rates of recession are due to the significant increase in the observed minimum winter temperatures. In Kashmir, precipitation is falling more as rain than snow due to the warming in winter. Further, the concentration of black carbon in the valley is highest compared to the other high altitude station in the Himalaya (5.9 gm-2). All these factors are responsible for the decrease in the volume and extent of the glaciers in Kashmir Himalaya.

[Plankton dynamics in the South of California Current].

PubMed

Hernández Trujillo, S; Gómez Ochoa, F; Verdugo Díaz, G

2001-03-01

We analyzed zooplankton biomass, micro- and nannophytoplankton abundance, Calanus pacificus Brodsky 1948 abundance, and sea surface temperature along the west coast of Baja California between February 1983 and September 1991. The zooplankton biovolume abundance decreased from spring to autumn. The average abundance of nannophytoplankton (< 20 microns) was generally higher than microphytoplankton (> 20 microns). Both increased 3.5 times in abundance after 1986. Seasonally, both fractions (NP and MP) were least abundant in winter and most abundant in summer and autumn. Calanus pacificus abundance was variable, but especially high in May of some years. Abundance was lowest in winter and highest in spring, dropping in summer and autumn. Sea surface temperatures averaged 21.5 degrees C, with highest in autumn (24.2 degrees C) and the lowest in spring (17.9 degrees C). C. pacificus abundance and sea surface temperature were inversely related by cruise, season, and latitude. The phytoplankton abundance and zooplankton biomass and C. pacificus abundance showed low and high abundance patterns coincident with warming and cooling events (El Niño-La Niña).

Performance evaluation of Ormat unit at Wabuska, Nevada. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Culver, G.

1986-07-01

Three nominal 24 hour tests under summer, winter and spring weather conditions, were run on an Ormat geothermal binary power generation machine. The machine, located at TAD's Enterprises in Wabuska, Nevada is supplied with approximately 830 gpm of geothermal water at 221/sup 0/F and has two spray cooling ponds. During the tests, temperature, pressure, and flows of geothermal water, freon, cooling water and instantaneous electrical production were recorded hourly. At least once during each test, energy consumption of the well pump, freon feed pump and cooling water pumps were made. Power output of the machine is limited by spray pondmore » capacity. Net output ranged from 410.2 kW during summer conditions when cooling water was 65/sup 0/F to 610.4 kW during winter conditions when cooling water was 55/sup 0/F. Net resource utilization ranged from 1.005 Whr/lb during the summer test to 1.55 Whr/lb during the winter test. Spray pond performance averaged 63% for the fall and winter tests. Availability of the Ormat unit itself during the eight month test period was generally good, averaging 95.5%. Overall system availability, including well pumps, cooling system and electric grid was somewhat less - averaging 83%.« less

COLD HARDINESS AND RANGE OF THE MYRIAPOD Angarozonium amurense (POLYZONIIDAE, DIPLOPODA, ARTHROPODA) IN PERMAFROST ENVIRONMENTS.

PubMed

Berman, D I; Meshcheryakova, E N; Mikhaljova, E V

2015-01-01

Angarozonium amurense (Gerstfeldt, 1859) is the only one out of more than a hundred diplopod species described in Siberia and the Far East that inhabits regions with solid permafrost. To evaluate the cold hardiness of A. amurense that allows this species to inhabit permafrost regions. The survival temperature thresholds and supercooling points (SCP) were measured. The temperature thresholds for adult animal survival are -8.5 C in summer and -27 C in winter. Average SCP decreases from -7.7 in summer to -16.9 in winter. Water content decreases from 55.7% in summer to 49.4% in winter. The cold hardiness of A. amurense sets the record in this class of animals. It allows it to overwinter in the upper 15 centimeters layer of soil in most biotopes of the coldest permafrost regions in North Asia.

The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Hoskins, B. J.; Scaife, A. A.

2016-11-01

The daily relationship of electricity and gas demand with temperature in Great Britain is analysed from 1975 to 2013 and 1996 to 2013 respectively. The annual mean and annual cycle amplitude of electricity demand exhibit low frequency variability. This low frequency variability is thought to be predominantly driven by socio-economic changes rather than temperature variation. Once this variability is removed, both daily electricity and gas demand have a strong anti-correlation with temperature (r elec = -0.90 , r gas = -0.94). However these correlations are inflated by the changing demand-temperature relationship during spring and autumn. Once the annual cycles of temperature and demand are removed, the correlations are {r}{{elec}}=-0.60 and {r}{{gas}}=-0.83. Winter then has the strongest demand-temperature relationship, during which a 1 °C reduction in daily temperature typically gives a ˜1% increase in daily electricity demand and a 3%-4% increase in gas demand. Extreme demand periods are assessed using detrended daily temperature observations from 1772. The 1 in 20 year peak day electricity and gas demand estimates are, respectively, 15% (range 14%-16%) and 46% (range 44%-49%) above their average winter day demand during the last decade. The risk of demand exceeding recent extreme events, such as during the winter of 2009/2010, is also quantified.

Seasonal dependence of aerosol processing in urban Philadelphia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, A. M.; Waring, M. S.; DeCarlo, P. F.

2017-12-01

Urban aerosols pose an important threat to human health due to the conflation of emissions and concentrated population exposed. Winter and summer aerosol and trace gas measurements were taken in downtown Philadelphia in 2016. Measurements included aerosol composition and size with an Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS), particle size distributions with an SMPS, and an aethalometer. Trace gas measurements of O3, NO, CH4, CO, and CO2 were taken concurrently. Sampling in seasonal extremes provided contrast in aerosol and trace gas composition, aerosol processing, and emission factors. Inorganic aerosol components contributed approximately 60% of the submicron aerosol mass, while summertime aerosol composition was roughly 70% organic matter. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) on the organic aerosol (OA) matrix revealed three factors in common in each season, including an oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) factor with different temporal behavior in each season. In summertime, OOA varied diurnally with ozone and daytime temperature, but in the wintertime, it was anti-correlated with ozone and temperature, and instead trended with calculated liquid water, indicating a seasonally-dependent processing of organic aerosol in Philadelphia's urban environment. Due to the inorganic dominant winter aerosol, liquid water much higher (2.65 μg/m3) in winter than in summer (1.54 μg/m3). Diurnally varying concentrations of background gas phase species (CH4, CO2) were higher in winter and varied less as a result of boundary layer conditions; ozone was also higher in background in winter than summer. Winter stagnation events with low windspeed showed large buildup of trace gases CH4, CO, CO2, and NO. Traffic related aerosol was also elevated with black carbon and hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) plumes of each at 3-5 times higher than the winter the average value for each. Winter ratios of HOA to black carbon were significantly higher in the winter than the summer due to lower temperatures. Aerosol compositional differences in winter and summer indicate Philadelphia resident's aerosol exposures vary significantly with season.

Inversion of Farmland Soil Moisture in Large Region Based on Modified Vegetation Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. X.; Yu, B. S.; Zhang, G. Z.; Zhao, G. C.; He, S. D.; Luo, W. R.; Zhang, C. C.

2018-04-01

Soil moisture is an important parameter for agricultural production. Efficient and accurate monitoring of soil moisture is an important link to ensure the safety of agricultural production. Remote sensing technology has been widely used in agricultural moisture monitoring because of its timeliness, cyclicality, dynamic tracking of changes in things, easy access to data, and extensive monitoring. Vegetation index and surface temperature are important parameters for moisture monitoring. Based on NDVI, this paper introduces land surface temperature and average temperature for optimization. This article takes the soil moisture in winter wheat growing area in Henan Province as the research object, dividing Henan Province into three main regions producing winter wheat and dividing the growth period of winter wheat into the early, middle and late stages on the basis of phenological characteristics and regional characteristics. Introducing appropriate correction factor during the corresponding growth period of winter wheat, correcting the vegetation index in the corresponding area, this paper establishes regression models of soil moisture on NDVI and soil moisture on modified NDVI based on correlation analysis and compare models. It shows that modified NDVI is more suitable as a indicator of soil moisture because of the better correlation between soil moisture and modified NDVI and the higher prediction accuracy of the regression model of soil moisture on modified NDVI. The research in this paper has certain reference value for winter wheat farmland management and decision-making.

Air temperature changes in Toruń (central Poland) from 1871 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pospieszyńska, Aleksandra; Przybylak, Rajmund

2018-02-01

The article presents a detailed analysis of changes in air temperature in Toruń in the period 1871-2010 on the basis of homogenised monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature series which have been newly constructed (i.e. extended by the 50 years of 1871-1920). Over the 140-year study period, a sizeable and statistically significant increase of 0.1 °C per decade was found in the air temperature in Toruń. The greatest increases occurred for spring and winter, at 0.12 and 0.11 °C, respectively. A lesser warming, meanwhile, was recorded for autumn (0.10 °C/10 years), and particularly for summer (0.07 °C/10 years). The air temperature trends are statistically significant for all seasons. Air temperature differences between the monthly averages of three analysed subperiods (1871-1900, 1901-1950 and 1951-2010) and averages for the entire period under review rarely exceeded ± 0.5 °C. In all of these periods, the highest average air temperatures occurred in July and the lowest in January. The period of 1981-2010 had the highest frequency of occurrence of very and extremely warm seasons and years. Meanwhile, the highest frequency of very and extremely cool seasons and years was recorded in the 1940s and in the nineteenth century. In the period of 1871-2010, winters shortened markedly (by 7%) and summers lengthened by 3.8%. All of the presented aspects of air temperature in Toruń, which is representative of the climate of central Poland, are in close agreement with the findings of analogous studies of the same for other areas of Poland and Central Europe.

The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation to Winter Tornado Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson Cook, A. D.; Schaefer, J. T.

2007-12-01

Winter tornado activity (January, February, and March) between 1950 and 2003 was analyzed to determine the possible effect of seasonally averaged sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the ENSO phase, on the location and strength of tornado outbreaks in the United States. Tornado activity was gauged through analyses of tornadoes occurring on tornado days (a calendar day featuring 6 or more tornadoes within the contiguous United States) and strong and violent tornado days (a calendar day featuring 5 or more tornadoes rated F-2 and greater within the contiguous United States). The tornado days were then stratified according to warm (37 tornado days, 14 violent days), cold (51 tornado days, 28 violent days), and neutral (74 tornado days, 44 violent days) winter ENSO phase. It is seen that during winter periods of neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, there is a tendency for United States tornado outbreaks to be stronger and more frequent than they are during winter periods of anomalously warm tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (El Nino). During winter periods with anomalously cool Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Nina), the frequency and strength of United States tornado activity lies between that of the neutral and El Nino phase. ENSO related shifts in the preferred location of tornado activity are also observed. Historically, during the neutral phase, tornado outbreaks typically occurred from central Oklahoma and Kansas eastward through the Carolinas. During cold phases, tornado outbreaks have typically occurred in a zone stretching from southeastern Texas northeastward into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. During anomalously warm phases activity was mainly limited to the Gulf Coast States including central Florida. The data are statistically and synoptically analyzed to show that they are not only statistically significant, but also meteorologically reasonable.

Mass balance, meteorology, area altitude distribution, glacier-surface altitude, ice motion, terminus position, and runoff at Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, 1996 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.

2003-01-01

The 1996 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier Basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.87 meter on April 18, 1996, 1.1 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 1.06 meters, was reached on May 28, 1996; and the net balance (from August 30, 1995, to August 24, 1996) was -0.53 meter, 0.53 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1995, to September 30, 1996) was -0.37 meter. Area-averaged balances were reported using both the 1967 and 1993 area altitude distributions (the numbers previously given in this abstract use the 1993 area altitude distribution). Net balance was about 25 percent less negative using the 1993 area altitude distribution than the 1967 distribution. Annual average air temperature was 0.9 degree Celsius warmer than that recorded with the analog sensor used since 1966. Total precipitation catch for the year was 0.78 meter, 0.8 standard deviations below normal. The annual average wind speed was 3.5 meters per second in the first year of measuring wind speed. Annual runoff averaged 1.50 meters over the basin, 1.0 standard deviation below the long-term average. Glacier-surface altitude and ice-motion changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice-speed and glacier-thickness changes. Both showed a continuation of a slowing and thinning trend present in the 1990s. The glacier terminus and lower ablation area were defined for 1996 with a handheld Global Positioning System survey of 126 locations spread out over about 4 kilometers on the lower glacier margin. From 1949 to 1996, the terminus retreated about 1,650 meters for an average retreat rate of 35 meters per year.

Determination of the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton community structure in Daya Bay via HPLC-CHEMTAX pigment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Longhua; Ou, Linjian; Huang, Kaixuan; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zhaohui; Wang, Xiaomin; Jiang, Tao

2017-09-01

The spatial and temporal variability of the phytoplankton community structure in Daya Bay, South China Sea, were identified by using HPLC-CHEMTAX analytical techniques. The highest chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations were observed during summer (with an average value of 0.84 μg/L) and lowest ones during winter (with an average value of 0.33 μg/L). CHEMTAX processing revealed the seasonal succession of phytoplankton species in Daya Bay. During winter, diatoms were the dominant phytoplankton species and contributed 41.5% to total Chl a. Based on Chl a concentration, the average ratio of dinoflagellates to total phytoplankton biomass substantially increased with increasing temperature and nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratio, reaching 52.2% in spring. Nutrient limitation shifted from phosphorus to nitrogen during summer. Moreover, this period was associated with the predominance of diatoms, which accounted for 71.1% of Chl a. Prasinophytes and cryptophytes were the other two dominant groups and particularly dominated during winter. Cyanobacteria became an important group during summer and autumn. Canonical correspondence analysis suggested that chrysophytes, dinoflagellates, and cryptophytes were strongly associated with high nitrate concentration, ammonium, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and N/P ratio, and were negatively associated with temperature and phosphate. Diatoms and cyanobacteria were strongly associated with temperature, phosphate, and salinity, and are negatively influenced by nitrate, ammonium, DIN, and N/P ratio. Microscopic observations and pigment HPLC information were in good agreement for diatoms and dinoflagellates in the bay. This study demonstrated the usefulness of pigment analysis in investigating the distribution of phytoplankton groups in a complex physical environment, such as Daya Bay.

Polar symmetric flow of a viscous compressible atmosphere; an application to Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pirraglia, J. A.

1974-01-01

The atmosphere is assumed to be driven by a polar symmetric temperature field and the equations of motion in pressure ratio coordinates are linearized by considering the zero order in terms of a thermal Rossby number R delta I/(2a omega) sq where delta T is a measure of the latitudinal temperature gradient. When the eddy viscosity is greater than 1 million sq cm/sec, the boundary layer extends far up into the atmosphere, making the geostrophic approximation invalid for the bulk of the atmosphere. A temperature model for Mars was used which was based on Mariner 9 infrared spectral data with a 30% increase in the depth averaged temperature from the winter pole to the subsolar point. The results obtained for the increase in surface pressure from the subsolar point to the winter pole, as a function of eddy viscosity and with no-slip conditions imposed at the surface, are given.

The relationship between thermal environments and clothing insulation for elderly individuals in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Jiao, Yu; Yu, Hang; Wang, Tian; An, Yusong; Yu, Yifan

2017-12-01

The relationship between thermal environmental parameters and clothing insulation is an important element in improving thermal comfort for the elderly. A field study was conducted on the indoor, transition space, and outdoor thermal environments of 17 elderly facilities in Shanghai, China. A random questionnaire survey was used to gather data from 672 valid samples. A statistical analysis of the data was conducted, and multiple linear regression models were established to quantify the relationships between clothing insulation, respondent age, indoor air temperature, and indoor relative humidity. Results indicated that the average thermal insulation of winter and summer clothing is 1.38 clo and 0.44 clo, respectively, for elderly men and 1.39 clo and 0.45 clo, respectively, for elderly women. It was also found that the thermal insulation of winter clothing is linearly correlated with age, and that there were seasonal differences in the relationship between clothing insulation and the environment. During winter, the clothing insulation is negatively correlated only with indoor temperature parameters (air temperature and operative temperature) for elderly males, while it is negatively correlated with indoor temperature parameters as well as transition space and outdoor air temperature for elderly females. In summer, clothing insulation for both elderly males and females is negatively correlated with outdoor temperature, as well as indoor temperature parameters (air temperature and operative temperature). The thermal insulation of summer clothing is also negatively correlated with transitional space temperature for males. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

Performance and carcass characteristics of steers fed with two levels of metabolizable energy intake during summer and winter season.

PubMed

Arias, R A; Keim, J P; Gandarillas, M; Velásquez, A; Alvarado-Gilis, C; Mader, T L

2018-05-22

Climate change is producing an increase on extreme weather events around the world such as flooding, drought and extreme ambient temperatures impacting animal production and animal welfare. At present, there is a lack of studies addressing the effects of climatic conditions associated with energy intake in finishing cattle in South American feed yards. Therefore, two experiments were conducted to assess the effects of environmental variables and level of metabolizable energy intake above maintenance requirements (MEI) on performance and carcass quality of steers. In each experiment (winter and summer), steers were fed with 1.85 or 2.72 times of their requirements of metabolizable energy of maintenance. A total of 24 crossbred steers per experiment were used and located in four pens (26.25 m2/head) equipped with a Calan Broadbent Feeding System. Animals were fed with the same diet within each season, varying the amount offered to adjust the MEI treatments. Mud depth, mud scores, tympanic temperature (TT), environmental variables, average daily gain, respiration rates and carcass characteristics plus three thermal comfort indices were collected. Data analysis considered a factorial arrangement (Season and MEI). In addition, a repeated measures analysis was performed for TT and respiration rate. Mean values of ambient temperature, solar radiation and comfort thermal indices were greater in the summer experiment as expected (P<0.005). The mean values of TT were higher in steers fed with higher MEI and also in the summer season. The average daily gain was greater during summer v. winter (1.10±0.11 v. 0.36±0.06) kg/day, also when steers were fed 2.72 v. 1.85 MEI level (0.89±0.12 v. 0.57±0.10) kg/day. In summer, respiration rate increased in 41.2% in the afternoon. In winter, muddy conditions increased with time of feeding, whereas wind speed and rainfall had significant effects on TT and average daily gain. We conclude that MEI and environmental variables have direct effects on the physiology and performance of steers, including TT and average daily gain, particularly during the winter. In addition, carcass characteristics were affected by season but not by the level of MEI. Finally, due to the high variability of data as well as the small number of animals assessed in these experiments, more studies on carcass characteristics under similar conditions are required.

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations

PubMed Central

Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2–34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature. PMID:26157627

Photosynthetic response of Persian Gulf acroporid corals to summer versus winter temperature deviations.

PubMed

Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Saleh, Abolfazl; Mehdinia, Ali; Shirvani, Arash; Kayal, Mohsen

2015-01-01

With on-going climate change, coral susceptibility to thermal stress constitutes a central concern in reefconservation. In the Persian Gulf, coral reefs are confronted with a high seasonal variability in water temperature, and both hot and cold extremes have been associated with episodes of coral bleaching and mortality. Using physiological performance as a measure of coral health, we investigated the thermal susceptibility of the common acroporid, Acropora downingi, near Hengam Island where the temperature oscillates seasonally in the range 20.2-34.2 °C. In a series of two short-term experiments comparing coral response in summer versus winter conditions, we exposed corals during each season (1) to the corresponding seasonal average and extreme temperature levels in a static thermal environment, and (2) to a progressive temperature deviation from the annual mean toward the corresponding extreme seasonal value and beyond in a dynamic thermal environment. We monitored four indictors of coral physiological performance: net photosynthesis (Pn), dark respiration (R), autotrophic capability (Pn/R), and survival. Corals exposed to warming during summer showed a decrease in net photosynthesis and ultimately died, while corals exposed to cooling during winter were not affected in their photosynthetic performance and survival. Coral autotrophic capability Pn/R was lower at the warmer thermal level within eachseason, and during summer compared to winter. Corals exposed to the maximum temperature of summer displayed Pn/R < 1, inferring that photosynthetic performance could not support basal metabolic needs under this environment. Our results suggest that the autotrophic performance of the Persian Gulf A. downingi is sensitive to the extreme temperatures endured in summer, and therefore its populations may be impacted by future increases in water temperature.

Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950-2099.

PubMed

Luedeling, Eike; Zhang, Minghua; Girvetz, Evan H

2009-07-16

Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location's suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model). Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, "safe winter chill", the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50-75% by mid-21st century, and 90-100% by late century. Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

New results on equatorial thermospheric winds and temperatures from Ethiopia, Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesema, Fasil; Mesquita, Rafael; Meriwether, John; Damtie, Baylie; Nigussie, Melessew; Makela, Jonathan; Fisher, Daniel; Harding, Brian; Yizengaw, Endawoke; Sanders, Samuel

2017-03-01

Measurements of equatorial thermospheric winds, temperatures, and 630 nm relative intensities were obtained using an imaging Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI), which was recently deployed at Bahir Dar University in Ethiopia (11.6° N, 37.4° E, 3.7° N magnetic). The results obtained in this study cover 6 months (53 nights of useable data) between November 2015 and April 2016. The monthly-averaged values, which include local winter and equinox seasons, show the magnitude of the maximum monthly-averaged zonal wind is typically within the range of 70 to 90 ms-1 and is eastward between 19:00 and 21:00 LT. Compared to prior studies of the equatorial thermospheric wind for this local time period, the magnitude is considerably weaker as compared to the maximum zonal wind speed observed in the Peruvian sector but comparable to Brazilian FPI results. During the early evening, the meridional wind speeds are 30 to 50 ms-1 poleward during the winter months and 10 to 25 ms-1 equatorward in the equinox months. The direction of the poleward wind during the winter months is believed to be mainly caused by the existence of the interhemispheric wind flow from the summer to winter hemispheres. An equatorial wind surge is observed later in the evening and is shifted to later local times during the winter months and to earlier local times during the equinox months. Significant night-to-night variations are also observed in the maximum speed of both zonal and meridional winds. The temperature observations show the midnight temperature maximum (MTM) to be generally present between 00:30 and 02:00 LT. The amplitude of the MTM was ˜ 110 K in January 2016 with values smaller than this in the other months. The local time difference between the appearance of the MTM and a pre-midnight equatorial wind was generally 60 to 180 min. A meridional wind reversal was also observed after the appearance of the MTM (after 02:00 LT). Climatological models, HWM14 and MSIS-00, were compared to the observations and the HWM14 model generally predicted the zonal wind observations well with the exception of higher model values by 25 ms-1 in the winter months. The HWM14 model meridional wind showed generally good agreement with the observations. Finally, the MSIS-00 model overestimated the temperature by 50 to 75 K during the early evening hours of local winter months. Otherwise, the agreement was generally good, although, in line with prior studies, the model failed to reproduce the MTM peak for any of the 6 months compared with the FPI data.

The Snow Must Go On: Ground Ice Encasement, Snow Compaction and Absence of Snow Differently Cause Soil Hypoxia, CO2 Accumulation and Tree Seedling Damage in Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Vuosku, Jaana; Ovaskainen, Anu; Stark, Sari; Rautio, Pasi

2016-01-01

At high latitudes, the climate has warmed at twice the rate of the global average with most changes observed in autumn, winter and spring. Increasing winter temperatures and wide temperature fluctuations are leading to more frequent rain-on-snow events and freeze-thaw cycles causing snow compaction and formation of ice layers in the snowpack, thus creating ice encasement (IE). By decreasing the snowpack insulation capacity and restricting soil-atmosphere gas exchange, modification of the snow properties may lead to colder soil but also to hypoxia and accumulation of trace gases in the subnivean environment. To test the effects of these overwintering conditions changes on plant winter survival and growth, we established a snow manipulation experiment in a coniferous forest in Northern Finland with Norway spruce and Scots pine seedlings. In addition to ambient conditions and prevention of IE, we applied three snow manipulation levels: IE created by artificial rain-on-snow events, snow compaction and complete snow removal. Snow removal led to deeper soil frost during winter, but no clear effect of IE or snow compaction done in early winter was observed on soil temperature. Hypoxia and accumulation of CO2 were highest in the IE plots but, more importantly, the duration of CO2 concentration above 5% was 17 days in IE plots compared to 0 days in ambient plots. IE was the most damaging winter condition for both species, decreasing the proportion of healthy seedlings by 47% for spruce and 76% for pine compared to ambient conditions. Seedlings in all three treatments tended to grow less than seedlings in ambient conditions but only IE had a significant effect on spruce growth. Our results demonstrate a negative impact of winter climate change on boreal forest regeneration and productivity. Changing snow conditions may thus partially mitigate the positive effect of increasing growing season temperatures on boreal forest productivity. PMID:27254100

The Snow Must Go On: Ground Ice Encasement, Snow Compaction and Absence of Snow Differently Cause Soil Hypoxia, CO2 Accumulation and Tree Seedling Damage in Boreal Forest.

PubMed

Martz, Françoise; Vuosku, Jaana; Ovaskainen, Anu; Stark, Sari; Rautio, Pasi

2016-01-01

At high latitudes, the climate has warmed at twice the rate of the global average with most changes observed in autumn, winter and spring. Increasing winter temperatures and wide temperature fluctuations are leading to more frequent rain-on-snow events and freeze-thaw cycles causing snow compaction and formation of ice layers in the snowpack, thus creating ice encasement (IE). By decreasing the snowpack insulation capacity and restricting soil-atmosphere gas exchange, modification of the snow properties may lead to colder soil but also to hypoxia and accumulation of trace gases in the subnivean environment. To test the effects of these overwintering conditions changes on plant winter survival and growth, we established a snow manipulation experiment in a coniferous forest in Northern Finland with Norway spruce and Scots pine seedlings. In addition to ambient conditions and prevention of IE, we applied three snow manipulation levels: IE created by artificial rain-on-snow events, snow compaction and complete snow removal. Snow removal led to deeper soil frost during winter, but no clear effect of IE or snow compaction done in early winter was observed on soil temperature. Hypoxia and accumulation of CO2 were highest in the IE plots but, more importantly, the duration of CO2 concentration above 5% was 17 days in IE plots compared to 0 days in ambient plots. IE was the most damaging winter condition for both species, decreasing the proportion of healthy seedlings by 47% for spruce and 76% for pine compared to ambient conditions. Seedlings in all three treatments tended to grow less than seedlings in ambient conditions but only IE had a significant effect on spruce growth. Our results demonstrate a negative impact of winter climate change on boreal forest regeneration and productivity. Changing snow conditions may thus partially mitigate the positive effect of increasing growing season temperatures on boreal forest productivity.

Europe's mild winters, due to offshore wind-farms, shipping and fishery?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernaerts, A.

2016-02-01

The winter 2014/15 was no winter in Northern Europa. In Europe the mean average temperature during the last century has risen by 0.9°C. In the last 30 years the tendency of warming per decade with about 0.41°C was significantly higher than the global mean of +0.17°C. Warming in central and northern Europe was very strong and winter temperatures rose faster than summer temperatures, and water temperatures in the North Sea and Baltic increased more than in other oceans. Can anthropogene activities between the English Channel and the Gulf of Finland be made partly responsible? Presumably yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At the end of August the sea areas have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many ship propellers are plowing through the sea stirring the surface layer to a depth of 15 meters and more. In the North Sea and Baltic, ten thousand and more motor ships are simultaneously at sea. Several thousand offshore facilities on the bottom of the sea or anchored offshore rigs divert currents at sea and influence tides and currents as a permanent resistance against the normal flow of huge amounts of ocean water. The result is like stirring hot liquids. Warm water will come to the surface and the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The air will become warmer and the winters will be milder. The correlation is not to be overseen. It is not relevant to climate research and agencies allowing offshore structures and they are neglecting such evaluations. Summary: The facts are conclusive. "Global Climate Change" cannot cause a special rise in temperatures in Northern Europe, neither in the North Sea nor the Baltic or beyond. Any use of the oceans by mankind has an influence on thermo-haline structures within the water column from a few cm to 10m and more. Noticeable warmer winters in Europe are the logical consequence.

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crossman, Jill; Eimers, M Catherine; Casson, Nora J.; Burns, Douglas A.; Campbell, John L.; Likens, Gene E; Mitchell, Myron J; Nelson, Sarah J.; Shanley, James B.; Watmough, Shaun A.; Webster, Kara L

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although on average only 3.3 % of annual precipitation fell as ROS during winter over the study period, these events contributed a significant proportion of annual and winter N-NO3 export at the majority of sites (average of 12 and 42 %, respectively); with the exception of the most northern catchment, where total winter precipitation was exceptionally low (average 77 mm). In years with a greater magnitude of ROS events, the timing of the peak N-NO3 export period (during spring melt) was redistributed to earlier in the year. Variability in ROS frequency and magnitude amongst sites was high and a generalised linear model demonstrated that this spatial variability could be explained by interactive effects between regional and site-specific drivers. Snowpack coverage was particularly important for explaining the site-specific ROS response. Specifically, ROS events were less common when higher temperatures eliminated snow cover despite increasing the proportion of winter rainfall, whereas ROS event frequency was greater at sites where sufficient snow cover remained. This research suggests that catchment response to changes in N deposition is sensitive to climate change; a vulnerability which appears to vary in intensity throughout the seasonally snow-covered temperate region. Furthermore, the sensitivity of stream N-NO3 export to ROS events and potential shifts (earlier) in the timing of N-NO3 export relative to other nutrients affect downstream nutrient stoichiometry and the community composition of phytoplankton and other algae.

Sea ice and oceanic processes on the Ross Sea continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, S. S.; Comiso, J. C.

1989-12-01

We have investigated the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic sea ice concentrations on the Ross Sea continental shelf, in relation to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. Sea ice data were derived from Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperatures from 1979-1986. Ice cover over the shelf was persistently lower than above the adjacent deep ocean, averaging 86% during winter with little month-to-month or interannual variability. The large spring Ross Sea polynya on the western shelf results in a longer period of summer insolation, greater surface layer heat storage, and later ice formation in that region the following autumn. Newly identified Pennell and Ross Passage polynyas near the continental shelf break appear to be maintained in part by divergence above a submarine bank and by upwelling of warmer water near the slope front. Warmer subsurface water enters the shelf region year-round and will retard ice growth and enhance heat flux to the atmosphere when entrained in the strong winter vertical circulation. Temperatures at 125-m depth on a mooring near the Ross Ice Shelf during July 1984 averaged 0.15°C above freezing, sufficient to support a vertical heat flux above 100 W/m2. Monthly average subsurface ocean temperatures along the Ross Ice Shelf lag the air temperature cycle and begin to rise several weeks before spring ice breakout. The coarse SMMR resolution and dynamic ice shelf coastlines can compromise the use of microwave sea ice data near continental boundaries.

2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

2013-12-01

On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For reference, the conventional AO index is shown by the gray line. (b) a 5-day running mean WP index, (c) area-averaged Surface Air Temperature anomalies in Japan, (d) Air Temperature anomalies, (e) heat flux anomalies, and (f) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. The boxed area on the Sea of Japan indicates the area in which the (d)-(f) indexes were calculated.

Spatiotemporal investigation of long-term seasonal temperature variability in Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsharkawy, S. G.; Elmallah, E. S.

2016-09-01

Throughout this work, spatial and temporal variations of seasonal surface air temperature have been investigated. Moreover, the effects of relative internal (teleconnection) and external (solar) forcing on surface air temperature variability have been examined. Seasonal temperature time series covering 30 different meteorological locations and lasting over the last century are considered. These locations are classified into two groups based on their spatial distribution. One represents Coast Libya Surface Air Temperature (CLSAT), contains 19 locations, and the other represents Desert Libya Surface Air Temperature (DLSAT), contains 11 locations. Average temperature departure test is applied to investigate the nature of temperature variations. Temperature trends are analyzed using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and their coefficients are calculated using Sen's slope estimate. Cross-correlation and spectral analysis techniques are also applied. Our results showed temperature deviation from average within a band of ± 2°C at coast region, while ± 4°C at desert region. Extreme behavior intensions between summer and winter temperatures at coast region are noticed. Segmentation process declared reversal cooling/warming behavior within temperature records for all seasons. Desert region shows warming trend for all seasons with higher coefficients than obtained at coast region. Results obtained for spectral analysis show different short and medium signals and concluded that not only the spectral properties are different for different geographical regions but also different for different climatic seasons on regional scale as well. Cross-correlation results showed that highest influence for Rz upon coastal temperature is always in conjunction with highest influence of NAO upon coastal temperature during the period 1981-2010. Desert region does not obey this phenomenon, where highest temperature-NAO correlations at desert during autumn and winter seasons are not accompanied with highest correlations for temperature-Rz.

Development of a winter wheat adjustable crop calendar model. [Colorado, Idaho, Oklahoma, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota and Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, J. R. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Least squares techniques were applied for parameter estimation of functions to predict winter wheat phenological stage with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, daylength, and precipitation as independent variables. After parameter estimation, tests were conducted using independent data. It may generally be concluded that exponential functions have little advantage over polynomials. Precipitation was not found to significantly affect the fits. The Robertson triquadratic form, in general use for spring wheat, yielded good results, but special techniques and care are required. In most instances, equations with nonlinear effects were found to yield erratic results when utilized with averaged daily environmental values as independent variables.

Seasonal Changes in Titan's Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennins, Donald E.; Cottini, V.; Nixon, C. A.; Flasar, F. M.; Kunde, V. G.; Samuelson, R. E.; Romani, P. N.; Hesman, B. E.; Carlson, R. C.; Gorius, N. J. P.;

Effect of season on peripheral resistance to localised cold stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, M.; Harimura, Y.; Tochihara, Y.; Yamazaki, S.; Ohnaka, T.; Matsui, J.; Yoshida, K.

1984-03-01

This study was carried out to determine the effect that seasonal changes have on the effect of localised cold stress on peripheral temperatures using the foot immersion method with a cold water bath. The subjects were six males and four females. The data were obtained in April, July, October and January. Skin temperature of the right index finger, the forehead, the arm, the cheek, the second toe and the instep were measured before, during and after the immersion of the feet in water at 15°C for 10 mins, as well as oxygen consumption before immersion of the feet. The average finger temperature was highest during foot immersion in the summer, next highest in the winter, then spring, and the lowest during foot immersion in the autumn. The finger temperatures during the pre-immersion period in the autumn tended to be lower than in other seasons. The finger temperatures during the pre-immersion period affected the temperature change of the finger during the immersion period. The rate of increase of the toe temperature and the foot temperature during post-immersion in the summer and the spring were greater than those in the autumn and winter. Oxygen consumption during the pre-immersion period in the autumn was significantly lower than in the other seasons (p<0.001 or 0.010). Cooling the feet caused no significant changes in the temperatures the cheek, forehead or forearm. The cheek temperature in the summer and autumn was cooler than corresponding temperatures taken in the winter and spring.

Causes and Consequences of Exceptional North Atlantic Heat Loss in Recent Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon; Grist, Jeremy; Duchez, Aurelie; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Hirschi, Joel; Marsh, Robert; Sinha, Bablu

2016-04-01

The mid-high latitude North Atlantic loses large amounts of heat to the atmosphere in winter leading to dense water formation. An examination of reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR) reveals that heat loss in the recent winters 2013-14 and 2014-15 was exceptionally strong. The causes and consequences of this extraordinary ocean heat loss will be discussed. In 2013-2014, the net air-sea heat flux anomaly averaged over the whole winter exceeded 100 Wm-2 in the eastern subpolar gyre (the most extreme in the period since 1979 spanned by ERA-Interim). The causes of this extreme heat loss will be shown to be severe latent and sensible heat fluxes driven primarily by anomalously strong westerly airflows from North America and northerly airflows originating in the Nordic Seas. The associated sea level pressure anomaly field reflects the dominance of the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) over the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in this winter. The extreme winter heat loss had a significant impact on the ocean extending from the sea surface into the deeper layers and a re-emergent cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly is evident in November 2014. The following winter 2014-15 experienced further extreme heat loss that served to amplify the strength of the re-emergent SST anomaly. By summer 2015, an unprecedented cold mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean surface temperature anomaly is evident in observations and has been widely referred to as the 'big blue blob'. The role played by the extreme surface heat loss in the preceding winters in generating this feature and it subsequent evolution through winter 2015-16 will be explored.

Hibernal habitat selection by Wood Frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in a northern New England montane landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groff, Luke A.; Calhoun, Aram J.K.; Loftin, Cynthia S.

2016-01-01

Poikilothermic species, such as amphibians, endure harsh winter conditions via freeze-tolerance or freeze-avoidance strategies. Freeze-tolerance requires a suite of complex, physiological mechanisms (e.g., cryoprotectant synthesis); however, behavioral strategies (e.g., hibernal habitat selection) may be used to regulate hibernaculum temperatures and promote overwintering survival. We investigated the hibernal ecology of the freeze-tolerant Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) in north-central Maine. Our objectives were to characterize the species hibernaculum microclimate (temperature, relative humidity), evaluate hibernal habitat selection, and describe the spatial arrangement of breeding, post-breeding, and hibernal habitats. We monitored 15 frogs during two winters (2011/12: N = 10; 2012/13: N = 5), measured hibernal habitat features at micro (2 m) and macro (10 m) spatial scales, and recorded microclimate hourly in three strata (hibernaculum, leaf litter, ambient air). We compared these data to that of 57 random locations with logistic regression models, Akaike Information Criterion, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests. Hibernaculum microclimate was significantly different and less variable than leaf litter, ambient air, and random location microclimate. Model averaging indicated that canopy cover (−), leaf litter depth (+), and number of logs and stumps (+; microhabitat only) were important predictors of Wood Frog hibernal habitat. These habitat features likely act to insulate hibernating frogs from extreme and variable air temperatures. For example, decreased canopy cover facilitates increased snowpack depth and earlier snowpack accumulation and melt. Altered winter temperature and precipitation patterns attributable to climate change may reduce snowpack insulation, facilitate greater temperature variation in the underlying hibernacula, and potentially compromise Wood Frog winter survival.

The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

PubMed Central

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival. PMID:23874549

Seasonal changes of 24-hour intraocular pressure rhythm in healthy Shanghai population

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jingyi; Xiao, Ming; Xu, Huan; Fang, Shaobin; Chen, Xu; Kong, Xiangmei; Sun, Xinghuai

2016-01-01

Abstract The aim of the present study was to investigate and compare the 24-hour intraocular pressure (IOP) rhythms in winter and summer in the healthy population of Shanghai, China. This is a cross-sectional study in which 24-hour IOP measurements were taken for all eligible healthy volunteers in winter and summer, respectively, and the temperature, hours of sunlight (sunlight time), and circulatory parameters, including heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure, were also recorded. The 24-hour IOP curves and IOP parameters (mean, peak, trough, and fluctuation of IOP together with the diurnal-to-nocturnal IOP change) in winter and summer were obtained and compared. The magnitude of IOP changes from summer to winter was also calculated. A total of 29 participants (58 eyes), 14 (48.28%) male and 15 (51.72%) female, aged 43.66 ± 12.20 (19–61) years, were considered eligible for this study. Generally, IOP decreased progressively before noon, increased notably in the nocturnal period, and peaked at 12:00 am in winter and at 2:00 am in summer. The pattern of 24-hour IOP in winter and summer was significantly different (P = 0.002). The average IOPs from 4:00 pm to 8:00 am, except for 6:00 am, were significantly higher in winter (P < 0.05). However, no significant differences were shown after adjusting for temperature and/or sunlight time. From summer to winter, the extent of IOP increase was mostly around 0 to 3 mm Hg, and the IOPs increased more significantly in the nocturnal period than in the diurnal period (P = 0.05). The 24-hour IOP rhythms were different in winter and summer, with higher IOP level in winter. Temperature and sunlight time, which are independent of heart rate and blood pressure, affected the 24-hour IOP rhythms in healthy people in Shanghai, China. Further investigations are expected for the rhythm of some endogenous substance secretion and the inner mechanism of regulation of IOP. PMID:27495076

Status of alewife and rainbow smelt in U.S. waters of Lake Ontario, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Maureen; Weidel, Brian C.; Connerton, Michael J.; Holden, Jeremy P.

2016-01-01

In 2015 the joint USGS and NYSDEC surveys for Alewife and Rainbow Smelt were combined for the first time into a comprehensive spring pelagic prey fish survey. The adult Alewife abundance and weight indices in 2015 increased slightly from 2014 levels, and adult Alewife abundance has remained relatively stable for the past five years. Adult Alewife condition in both spring and fall increased from 2014 values and was above long-term means. Yearling Alewife abundance was the lowest observed in the 38-year time series. Alewife year class strength at age 1 is related to the number of spawning adults and summer temperatures and winter duration in the first year after hatching. Moderate year classes were produced during 2009-2011, and 2012 was the largest year class in the time series. However, severe winters in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 contributed to two successive very small year classes for the first time in the time series. We expect adult Alewife abundance and biomass to decline in 2016 as older and larger fish decline in the population. The number of spawning adults increased in 2015, summer temperatures were slightly below average, and the anticipated winter duration is below average (i.e., milder winter) for 2015-2016, so these conditions will likely produce a low to moderate year class. A third successive weak year class could be problematic for the Lake Ontario Alewife population and may be of concern to binational lake managers. Rainbow Smelt were also assessed and the population continues to persist at a low and stable level.

Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Deng, Cai; Zhang, Wanchang

2018-05-30

As the backland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the river source region is highly sensitive to changes in global climate. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. A geographically weighted regression model was applied to estimate synchronic air temperature from 2001 to 2015 using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometry (MODIS) data. The results were R 2  = 0.913 and RMSE = 2.47 °C, which confirmed the feasibility of the estimation. The spatial distribution and variation characteristics of the average annual and seasonal air temperature were analyzed. The findings are as follows: (1) the distribution of average annual air temperature has significant terrain characteristics. The reduction in average annual air temperature along the elevation of the region is 0.19 °C/km, whereas the reduction in the average annual air temperature along the latitude is 0.04 °C/degree. (2) The average annual air temperature increase in the region is 0.37 °C/decade. The average air temperature increase could be arranged in the following decreasing order: Yangtze River Basin > Mekong River Basin > Nujiang River Basin > Yarlung Zangbo River Basin > Yellow River Basin. The fastest, namely, Yangtze River Basin, is 0.47 °C/decade. (3) The average air temperature rise in spring, summer, and winter generally increases with higher altitude. The average annual air temperature in different types of lands following a decreasing order is as follows: wetland > construction land > bare land glacier > shrub grassland > arable land > forest land > water body and that of the fastest one, wetland, is 0.13 °C/year.

The Remarkable 2003-2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Krueger, Kirstin; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Sena, Sara Amina; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-winter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

The Effect of Climate Change on Snow Pack at Sleepers River, Vermont, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanley, J. B.; Chalmers, A.; Denner, J.; Clark, S.

2017-12-01

Sleepers River Research Watershed, a U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) site in northeastern Vermont, has a 58-year record (since 1959) of snow depth and snow water equivalence (SWE), one of the longest continuous records in eastern North America. Snow measurements occur weekly during the winter at the watershed using an Adirondack type snow tube sampler. Sleepers River averages about 1100 mm of precipitation annually of which 20 to 30 percent falls as snow. Snow cover typically persists from December to April. Length of snow cover and snow depth vary with elevation, aspect, and cover type. Sites include open field, and hardwood and conifer stand clearings from 225 to 630 meters elevation. We evaluated changes in snow depth, snow cover duration, and SWE relative to elevation, soil frost depth, air temperature, total precipitation, and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Overall, warmer winter temperatures have resulted in more midwinter thaws, more rain during the winter, and more variable soil frost depth. Trends in snowpack amount and duration were compared to winter-spring streamflow center-of-mass to evaluate if shifts in the snow pack regime were leading to earlier snowmelt.

Brine Convection, Temperature Fluctuations, and Permeability in Winter Antarctic Land-Fast Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongpan, P.; Hughes, K. G.; Langhorne, P. J.; Smith, I. J.

2018-01-01

Vertical temperature strings are used in sea ice research to study heat flow, ice growth rate, and ocean-ice-atmosphere interaction. We demonstrate the feasibility of using temperature fluctuations as a proxy for fluid movement, a key process for supplying nutrients to Antarctic sea ice algal communities. Four strings were deployed in growing, land-fast sea ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. By smoothing temperature data with the robust LOESS method, we obtain temperature fluctuations that cannot be explained by insolation or atmospheric heat loss. Statistical distributions of these temperature fluctuations are investigated with sensitivities to the distance from the ice-ocean interface, average ice temperature, and sea ice structure. Fluctuations are greatest close to the base (<50 mm) at temperatures >-3°C, and are discrete events with an average active period of 43% compared to 11% when the ice is colder (-3°C to -5°C). Assuming fluctuations occur when the Rayleigh number, derived from mushy layer theory, exceeds a critical value of 10 we approximate the harmonic mean permeability of this thick (>1 m) sea ice in terms of distance from the ice-ocean interface. Near the base, we obtain values in the same range as those measured by others in Arctic spring and summer. The permeability between the ice-ocean interface and 0.05 ± 0.04 m above it is of order 10-9 m2. Columnar and incorporated platelet ice permeability distributions in the bottom 0.1 m of winter Antarctic sea ice are statistically significantly different although their arithmetic means are indistinguishable.

Photoperiod and fur lengths in the arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Underwood, L. S.; Reynolds, Patricia

1980-03-01

Pelage is seasonally dimorphic in the Arctic fox. During the winter, fur lengths for this species are nearly double similar values taken during the summer season. Considerable site-specific differences in fur length are noted. In general, body sites which are exposed to the environment when an Arctic fox lies in a curled position show greater fur lengths in all seasons and greater seasonal variations than body sites that are more protected during rest. Well-furred sites may tend to conserve heat during periods of inactivity, and scantily furred sites may tend to dissipate heat during periods of exercise. The growth of winter fur may compensate for the severe cold of the arctic winter. Changes in fur lengths indicate a definite pattern in spite of individual variations. During the fall months, fur lengths seem to lag behind an increasing body-to-ambient temperature gradient. Both body-to-ambient temperature gradients and fur lengths peak during December through February. From March through June, gradual environmental warming is accompanied by a decrease in average fur lengths. Thus, there appears to be a remarkable parallel between the body-to-ambient temperature gradient and the fur lengths. The growth of fur in the Arctic fox parallels annual changes in ambient temperature and photoperiod.

Effects of aging on thermoregulatory responses and hormonal changes in humans during the four seasons in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Maki; Kanikowska, Dominika; Sugenoya, Junichi; Inukai, Yoko; Shimizu, Yuuki; Nishimura, Naoki; Iwase, Satoshi

2011-03-01

Physiological functions are impaired in various organs in aged people, as manifest by, e.g., renal and cardiac dysfunction and muscle atrophy. The elderly are also at increased risk of both hypothermia and hyperthermia in extreme temperatures. The majority of those over 65 years old have elevated serum osmolality. Our hypothesis is that the elderly have suppressed osmolality control in different seasons compared to the young. Eight healthy young men and six healthy older men participated in this study. The experiments were performed during spring, summer, autumn and winter in Japan, with average atmospheric temperatures of 15-20°C in spring, 25-30°C in summer, 15-23°C in autumn and 5-10°C in winter. Each subject immersed his lower legs in warm water at 40°C for 30 min. Core (tympanic) temperature and sweat rate at chest were recorded continuously. Blood was taken pre-immersion to measure the concentrations of antidiuretic hormone, serum osmolality, plasma renin activity, angiotensin II, aldosterone, leptin, thyroid stimulating hormone, fT3 and fT4. The results suggested that the elderly have suppressed osmolality control compared to the young; osmolality was especially elevated in winter compared to the summer in elderly subjects. Therefore, particularly in the elderly, balancing fluid by drinking water should be encouraged to maintain euhydration status in winter.

Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yong; Li, Qiaoping; Zhang, Jin

2007-11-01

This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1°C over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8°C over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods. Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature. Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable, with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase, and North China a severe drought. Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings, show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change. A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) and the IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), as well as 40 models developed overseas, indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century, with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China. Under varied emission scenarios, the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1°C by 2020, 2.3-3.3°C by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0°C by 2100, in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961-1990. Most models project a 10%-12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100, with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China, but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend. Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation, and further studies are needed. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.

Caspian Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

In this Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image from December 3, 2001, winter sea ice can be seen forming in the shallow waters of the northern Caspian (left) and Aral (upper right) Seas. Despite the inflow of the Volga River (upper left), the northern portion of the Caspian Sea averages only 17 feet in depth, and responds to the region's continental climate, which is cold in winter and hot and dry in the summer. The southern part of the Sea is deeper and remains ice-free throughout the winter. The dirty appearance of the ice may be due to sediment in the water, but may also be due to wind-driven dust. The wind in the region can blow at hurricane-force strength and can cause the ice to pile up in hummocks that are anchored to the sea bottom. The eastern portion of the Aral Sea is also beginning to freeze. At least two characteristics of the Aral Sea 'compete' in determining whether its waters will freeze. The Sea is shallow, which increases the likelihood of freezing, but it is also very salty, which means that lower temperatures are required to freeze it than would be required for fresh water. With average December temperatures of 18oF, it's clearly cold enough to allow ice to form. As the waters that feed the Aral Sea continue to be diverted for agriculture, the Sea becomes shallower and the regional climate becomes even more continental. This is because large bodies of water absorb and retain heat, moderating seasonal changes in temperature. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

Ice in Caspian Sea and Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

In this MODIS image from December 3, 2001, winter sea ice can be seen forming in the shallow waters of the northern Caspian (left) and Aral (upper right) Seas. Despite the inflow of the Volga River (upper left), the northern portion of the Caspian Sea averages only 17 ft in depth, and responds to the region's continental climate, which is cold in winter and hot and dry in the summer. The southern part of the Sea is deeper and remains ice-free throughout the winter. The dirty appearance of the ice may be due to sediment in the water, but may also be due to wind-driven dust. The wind in the region can blow at hurricane-force strength and can cause the ice to pile up in hummocks that are anchored to the sea bottom. The eastern portion of the Aral Sea is also beginning to freeze. At least two characteristics of the Aral Sea 'compete' in determining whether its waters will freeze. The Sea is shallow, which increases the likelihood of freezing, but it is also very salty, which means that lower temperatures are required to freeze it than would be required for fresh water. With average December temperatures of 18o F, it's clearly cold enough to allow ice to form. As the waters that feed the Aral Sea continue to be diverted for agriculture, the Sea becomes shallower and the regional climate becomes even more continental. This is because large bodies of water absorb and retain heat, moderating seasonal changes in temperature. Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

Seasonal Variation on Microbial Community and Methane Production during Anaerobic Digestion of Cattle Manure in Brazil.

PubMed

Resende, Juliana Alves; Godon, Jean-Jacques; Bonnafous, Anaïs; Arcuri, Pedro Braga; Silva, Vânia Lúcia; Otenio, Marcelo Henrique; Diniz, Cláudio Galuppo

2016-04-01

Anaerobic digestion is an alternative method for the treatment of animal manure and wastewater. The anaerobic bioconversion of biomass requires a multi-step biological process, including microorganisms with distinct roles. The diversity and composition of microbial structure in pilot-scale anaerobic digestion operating at ambient temperature in Brazil were studied. Influence of the seasonal and temporal patterns on bacterial and archaeal communities were assessed by studying the variations in density, dynamic and diversity and structure. The average daily biogas produced in the summer and winter months was 18.7 and 16 L day(-1), respectively, and there was no difference in the average methane yield. Quantitative PCR analysis revealed that no differences in abundances and dynamics were found for bacterial communities and the total number of Archaea in different seasons. Analysis of bacterial clone libraries revealed a predominance of Firmicutes (54.5 %/summer and 46.7 %/winter) and Bacteroidetes (31.4 %/summer and 44.4 %/winter). Within the Archaea, the phylum Euryarchaeota was predominant in both digesters. Phylogenetic distribution showed changes in percentage between the phyla identified, but no alterations were recorded in the quality and amount of produced methane or community dynamics. The results may suggest that redundancy of microbial groups may have occurred, pointing to a more complex microbial community in the ecosystem related to this ambient temperature system.

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations.

PubMed

Ahas, Rein; Aasa, Anto

2006-09-01

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.

Historical trend in river ice thickness and coherence in hydroclimatological trends in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, T.G.; Hodgkins, G.A.; Dudley, R.W.

2003-01-01

We analyzed long-term records of ice thickness on the Piscataquis River in central Maine and air temperature in Maine to determine whether there were temporal trends that were associated with climate warming. The trend in ice thickness was compared and correlated with regional time series of winter air temperature, heating degree days (HDD), date of river ice-out, seasonal center-of-volume date (SCVD) (date on which half of the stream runoff volume during the period 1 Jan. to 31 May has occurred), water temperature, and lake ice-out date. All of these variables except lake ice-out date showed significant temporal trends during the 20th century. Average ice thickness around 28 February decreased by about 23 cm from 1912 to 2001. Over the period 1900 to 1999, winter air temperature increased by 1.7??C and HDD decreased by about 7.5%. Final ice-out date on the Piscataquis River occurred earlier (advanced), by 0.21 days yr-1 over the period 1931 to 2002, and the SCVD advanced by 0.11 days yr-1 over the period 1903 to 2001. Ice thickness was significantly correlated (P-value < 0.01) with winter air temperature, HDD, river ice-out, and SCVD. These systematic temporal trends in multiple hydrologic indicator variables indicate a coherent response to climate forcing.

Effect of residential air-to-air heat and moisture exchangers on indoor humidity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barringer, C.G.; McGugan, C.A.

1989-01-01

A project was undertaken to develop guidelines for the selection of residential heat and moisture recovery ventilation systems (HRVs) in order to maintain an acceptable indoor humidity for various climatic conditions. These guidelines were developed from reviews on ventilation requirements, HRV performance specifications, and from computer modeling. Space conditions within three house/occupancy models for several types of HRV were simulated for three climatic conditions (Lake Charles, LA; Seattle, WA; and Winnipeg, MB) in order to determine the impact of the HRVs on indoor relative humidity and space-conditioning loads. Results show that when reduction of cooling cost is the main consideration,more » exchangers with moisture recovery are preferable to sensible HRVs. For reduction of heating costs, moisture recovery should be done for ventilation rates greater than about 15 L/s and average winter temperatures less than about (minus) 10{degrees}C if internal moisture generation rates are low. For houses with higher ventilation rates and colder average winter temperatures, exchangers with moisture recovery should be used.« less

Drivers of River Water Temperature Space-time Variability in Northeast Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Docherty, C.; Milner, A.

2015-12-01

Water temperature plays an important role in stream ecosystem functioning; however, water temperature dynamics in high Arctic environments have received relatively little attention. Given that global climate is predicted to change most at high latitudes, it is vital we broaden our knowledge of space-time variability in Arctic river temperature to understand controlling processes and potential consequences of climate change. To address this gap, our research aims: (1) to characterise seasonal and diel patterns of variability over three summer and two winter seasons with contrasting hydrometeorological conditions, (2) to unravel the key drivers influencing thermal regimes and (3) to place these results in the context of other snow/ glacier-melt dominated environments. Fieldwork was undertaken in July-September 2013, 2014 and 2015 close to the Zackenberg Research Station in Northeast Greenland - an area of continuous permafrost with a mean July air temperature of 6 °C. Five streams were chosen that drain different water source contributions (glacier melt, snow melt, groundwater). Data were collected at 30 minute intervals using micro-dataloggers. Air temperature data were collected within 7km by the Greenland Survey. Weather conditions were highly variable between field campaigns, with 2013 experiencing below average, and 2014 and 2015 above average, snowfall. Summer water temperatures appear to be high in comparison to some Arctic streams in Alaska and in Svalbard. Winter snowfall extent decreases stream water temperature; and water temperature increases with atmospheric exposure time (distance from source) - illustrating the intertwined controls of water and heat fluxes. These Greenland streams are most strongly influenced by snowmelt, but groundwater contributions could increase with a changing climate due to increased active layer thickness, which may result in increased river temperature with implications for aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Hydrographic variability in Bahia De La Paz, B. C. S, Mexico, during the 1997 1998 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeso-Nieblas, M.; Shirasago, B.; Sánchez-Velasco, L.; Gaviño-Rodriguez, J. H.

2004-03-01

Bahía de La Paz is an integral part of the coast of the Gulf of California and is the biggest bay of the eastern side of the Baja California Peninsula. Dynamic forcing and water interchange occur between the bay and the gulf through two different openings, the main and deep North Mouth with 350-m depth and the shallow San Lorenzo Channel with an average depth of 10 m. To determine the oceanographic conditions before and during El Niño 1997-1998 in Bahia de La Paz, CTD data were collected in four surveys aboard the research yacht CICIMAR XV during July 1996, March 1997, July 1997, and March 1998. The results revealed important variations in the hydrographic structure of the bay, both in space and time. The two summers had a complete absence of the mixed layer with a sharper thermocline during summer 1996 (0.25°C/m) than in summer 1997 (0.21°C/m). Additionally, the entire water column experienced an average temperature increase from 1.5°C at the surface with a maximum of 4.2°C to 28 m and around 1°C between 100 and 350 m, showing a halocline structure in summer 1997. At the end of the winters of 1997 and 1998, a 50-m mixed layer was detected, with higher average temperatures of 2.3°C in winter 1998. The temperature differences decreased with depth and were the same at 340 m with no traces of the halocline in winter 1998. The increase of temperature observed in the study area during the periods affected by El Niño 1997-1998 resulted in a sinking of the thermocline and isotherms, showing the strongest effect of this warming (>4°C) in the surface layer to 70 m during summer 1997. The stratification increased during the El Niño and was more evident in the period of small stratification in the region (winter) as showed by the φ parameter with values of 45 J/m3 in 1998 and 29 J/m3 in 1997, whereas during the strong stratification period (summer) the difference was small, with values of 137 J/m3 in 1996 and 139 J/m3 in 1997. In periods not affected by El Niño, the Gulf of California and the Subtropical Subsurface Waters are usually present in the bay, but during this episode their presence varies in space. Additionally, Surface Equatorial Water was found in the bay, mainly at the end of winter 1998 and with some traces in summer 1997.

The evolution of high summit metabolism and cold tolerance in birds and its impact on present-day distributions.

PubMed

Swanson, David L; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Summit metabolic rate (M(sum), maximum cold-induced metabolic rate) is positively correlated with cold tolerance in birds, suggesting that high M(sum) is important for residency in cold climates. However, the phylogenetic distribution of high M(sum) among birds and the impact of its evolution on current distributions are not well understood. Two potential adaptive hypotheses might explain the phylogenetic distribution of high M(sum) among birds. The cold adaptation hypothesis contends that species wintering in cold climates should have higher M(sum) than species wintering in warmer climates. The flight adaptation hypothesis suggests that volant birds might be capable of generating high M(sum) as a byproduct of their muscular capacity for flight; thus, variation in M(sum) should be associated with capacity for sustained flight, one indicator of which is migration. We collected M(sum) data from the literature for 44 bird species and conducted both conventional and phylogenetically informed statistical analyses to examine the predictors of M(sum) variation. Significant phylogenetic signal was present for log body mass, log mass-adjusted M(sum), and average temperature in the winter range. In multiple regression models, log body mass, winter temperature, and clade were significant predictors of log M(sum). These results are consistent with a role for climate in determining M(sum) in birds, but also indicate that phylogenetic signal remains even after accounting for associations indicative of adaptation to winter temperature. Migratory strategy was never a significant predictor of log M(sum) in multiple regressions, a result that is not consistent with the flight adaptation hypothesis.

Numerical simulation of ozone loss in the Antarctic winters 2005-2008: Comparison with MLS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefevre, F.; Pazmino, A.

2009-04-01

The ozone loss in the recent Antarctic winters were high enough to pause a lag in the recovery phase of stratospheric ozone above this continent. We quantitatively examine the extent of ozone loss variability during 2005-2008 with simulations from a high resolution chemical transport model, MIMOSA-CHIM. The simulated results are cross-checked with the observed loss from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite sensor data. This study uses the vortex averaged data at the potential temperature level 475 K from both MIMOSA and MLS to estimate the ozone loss by transport method. Minimum temperatures calculated from ECMWF analyzes over 50-90°S at 475 K are coldest in 2008 during June-July and in 2006 during September-November. In general, Antarctic winters experience NAT temperatures from mid-May to mid-October and ICE temperatures from June to September. Due to the saturation of chemical ozone loss, the year-to-year difference in temperatures do not have a large effect. The estimated cumulative ozone loss from MIMOSA-CHIM at 475 K is 3.2 in 2005, 2.9 in 2006, 2.8 in 2007 and 2.0 ppm in 2008. The measured cumulative loss in the respective years also show similar values: respectively 3.3, 3.2, 2.8 and 2.2 ppm in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Both data sets show the same loss trend, as the cumulative loss is highest in 2005 followed by 2006 and the lowest in 2008, and are in accord with the chlorine activation and denitrification found in the respective winters. The simulations in 2008 lack adequate diabatic descent as assessed from tracer simulations in comparison with measurements. This eventually produced relatively lower values for ozone loss in 2008 in both data sets even though the observed chlorine activation was found to be similar to previous winters.

Did Climate Change Cause the 2012-2014 California Drought?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Clark, E.; Xiao, M.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

California has experienced severe drought over the last three years, with especially deficient winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in 2013-2014. While the severity of California's water crisis this year is not in question, the causes of the drought are less clear, and there has been debate as to whether human-induced climate change is at least in part a cause of anomalously low winter precipitation (P) and snow water equivalent (SWE) this year, or whether the conditions are simply the result of natural variability that has been manifested in previous severe droughts in California. To provide more scientific insight to this question, we reconstructed, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, SWE and runoff from 1920 to 2014 at a spatial resolution of 1/16 degree over the Sierra Nevada range of California. We forced the VIC model with a temporally consistent set of index precipitation and temperature stations that are also used in the University of Washington's Drought Monitoring System for the West Coast Region (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor_cali/index.shtml). We carried out trend analysis and examined cumulative probability for accumulated winter precipitation, SWE on Apr 1, annual, spring and winter runoff, average winter temperature (T) and SWE/P fraction. We also did correlation analysis between SWE and P as well as SWE and T. In addition, we used detrended temperature data to force the VIC model in order to analyze the role of climate change in SWE and runoff. Our results show that while the decreasing trend in SWE and earlier runoff peak in the year are related to long-term warming climate, there is no significant trend in winter P and there are lots of variability in the record of all variables. While this year's anomalously warm weather might have exacerbated the ongoing 3-year drought (and winter 2013-14 in particular), we conclude that natural variability is the main cause.

Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.

PubMed

Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S

2000-02-01

Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.

Time budgets of Snow Geese Chen caerulescens and Ross's Geese Chen rossii in mixed flocks: Implications of body size, ambient temperature and family associations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonsson, J.E.; Afton, A.D.

2009-01-01

Body size affects foraging and forage intake rates directly via energetic processes and indirectly through interactions with social status and social behaviour. Ambient temperature has a relatively greater effect on the energetics of smaller species, which also generally are more vulnerable to predator attacks than are larger species. We examined variability in an index of intake rates and an index of alertness in Lesser Snow Geese Chen caerulescens caerulescens and Ross's Geese Chen rossii wintering in southwest Louisiana. Specifically we examined variation in these response variables that could be attributed to species, age, family size and ambient temperature. We hypothesized that the smaller Ross's Geese would spend relatively more time feeding, exhibit relatively higher peck rates, spend more time alert or raise their heads up from feeding more frequently, and would respond to declining temperatures by increasing their proportion of time spent feeding. As predicted, we found that Ross's Geese spent more time feeding than did Snow Geese and had slightly higher peck rates than Snow Geese in one of two winters. Ross's Geese spent more time alert than did Snow Geese in one winter, but alert rates differed by family size, independent of species, in contrast to our prediction. In one winter, time spent foraging and walking was inversely related to average daily temperature, but both varied independently of species. Effects of age and family size on time budgets were generally independent of species and in accordance with previous studies. We conclude that body size is a key variable influencing time spent feeding in Ross's Geese, which may require a high time spent feeding at the expense of other activities. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, N.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2006-01-01

The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949-2004. The trends toward reduce d SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than -5??C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0?? and +3??C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to warming trends. The trends toward reduced SFE/P ratios w ere most pronounced in March regionwide and in January near the West Coast, corresponding, to widespread warming in these months. While mean temperatures in March were sufficiently high to allow the warming, trend to produce SFE/P declines across the study region, mean January temperatures were cooler. with the result that January SFE/P impacts were restricted to the lower elevations near the West Coast. Extending the analysis back to 1920 sho ws that although the trends presented here may be partially attributable to interdecadal climate variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. they also appear to result from still longer-term climate shifts.

Coupled long term simulation of reach scale water and heat fluxes across the river groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munz, Matthias; Oswald, Sascha E.; Schmidt, Christian

2017-04-01

Flow pattern and seasonal as well as diurnal temperature variations control ecological and biogeochemical conditions in hyporheic sediments. In particular, hyporheic temperatures have a great impact on many microbial processes. In this study we used 3-D coupled water flow and heat transport simulations applying the HydroGeoSphere code in combination with high frequent observations of hydraulic heads and temperatures for quantifying reach scale water and heat flux across the river groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics of a lowland gravel-bed river. The magnitude and dynamics of simulated temperatures matched the observed with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 °C and an average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.87. Our results highlight that the average temperature in the hyporheic zone follows the temperature in the river which is characterized by distinct seasonal and daily temperature cycles. Individual hyporheic flow path temperature substantially varies around the average hyporheic temperature. Hyporheic flow path temperature was found to strongly depend on the flow path residence time and the temperature gradient between river and groundwater; that is, in winter the average flow path temperature of long flow paths is potentially higher compared to short flow paths. Based on the simulation results we derived a general empirical relationship, estimating the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time on hyporheic flow path temperature. Furthermore we used an empirical temperature relationship between effective temperature and respiration rate to estimate the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time and temperature on hyporheic oxygen consumption. This study highlights the relation between complex hyporheic temperature patterns, hyporheic residence times and their implications on temperature sensitive biogeochemical processes.

Impacts of temperature and its variability on mortality in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Liuhua; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Liu, Pengfei; Schwartz, Joel D.

2015-11-01

Rapid build-up of greenhouse gases is expected to increase Earth’s mean surface temperature, with unclear effects on temperature variability. This makes understanding the direct effects of a changing climate on human health more urgent. However, the effects of prolonged exposures to variable temperatures, which are important for understanding the public health burden, are unclear. Here we demonstrate that long-term survival was significantly associated with both seasonal mean values and standard deviations of temperature among the Medicare population (aged 65+) in New England, and break that down into long-term contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies. A rise in summer mean temperature of 1 °C was associated with a 1.0% higher death rate, whereas an increase in winter mean temperature corresponded to a 0.6% decrease in mortality. Increases in standard deviations of temperature for both summer and winter were harmful. The increased mortality in warmer summers was entirely due to anomalies, whereas it was long-term average differences in the standard deviation of summer temperatures across ZIP codes that drove the increased risk. For future climate scenarios, seasonal mean temperatures may in part account for the public health burden, but the excess public health risk of climate change may also stem from changes of within-season temperature variability.

Characterizing and Quantifying Local and Regional Particulate Matter Emissions from Department of Defense Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

region (Fig. 4.1). A summary of the annual and seasonal average temperature, precipitation , and wind conditions for El Paso is presented in Table 4.1... Precipitation (cm) 2 Average Wind Speed 2 (km/hr) Prevailing Wind Direction 2 (degrees) Annual 17.3 22.4 14.2 360 Winter (Dec...Chow, 2001; Chow et al., 2003). The Teflon-membrane filters were analyzed for mass by gravimetry using a Cahn 31 Electro-microbalance and for 40

Predicting top-of-atmosphere radiance for arbitrary viewing geometries from the visible to thermal infrared: generalization to arbitrary average scene temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florio, Christopher J.; Cota, Steve A.; Gaffney, Stephanie K.

2010-08-01

In a companion paper presented at this conference we described how The Aerospace Corporation's Parameterized Image Chain Analysis & Simulation SOftware (PICASSO) may be used in conjunction with a limited number of runs of AFRL's MODTRAN4 radiative transfer code, to quickly predict the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance received in the visible through midwave IR (MWIR) by an earth viewing sensor, for any arbitrary combination of solar and sensor elevation angles. The method is particularly useful for large-scale scene simulations where each pixel could have a unique value of reflectance/emissivity and temperature, making the run-time required for direct prediction via MODTRAN4 prohibitive. In order to be self-consistent, the method described requires an atmospheric model (defined, at a minimum, as a set of vertical temperature, pressure and water vapor profiles) that is consistent with the average scene temperature. MODTRAN4 provides only six model atmospheres, ranging from sub-arctic winter to tropical conditions - too few to cover with sufficient temperature resolution the full range of average scene temperatures that might be of interest. Model atmospheres consistent with intermediate temperature values can be difficult to come by, and in any event, their use would be too cumbersome for use in trade studies involving a large number of average scene temperatures. In this paper we describe and assess a method for predicting TOA radiance for any arbitrary average scene temperature, starting from only a limited number of model atmospheres.

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-05-01

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany--winter season.

PubMed

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-05-01

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.

Climate Variation at Flagstaff, Arizona - 1950 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION Much scientific research demonstrates the existence of recent climate variation, particularly global warming. Climate prediction models forecast that climate will change; it will become warmer, droughts will increase in number and severity, and extreme climate events will recur often?desiccating aridity, extremely wet, unusually warm, or even frigid at times. However, the global models apply to average conditions in large grids approximately 150 miles on an edge (Thorpe, 2005), and how or whether specific areas within a grid are affected is unclear. Flagstaff's climate is mentioned in the context of global change, but information is lacking on the amount and trend of changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature. The purpose of this report is to understand what may be happening to Flagstaff's climate by reviewing local climate history. Flagstaff is in north-central Arizona south of San Francisco Mountain, which reaches 12,633 feet, the highest in Arizona (fig. 1). At 6,900 feet, surrounded by ponderosa pine forest, Flagstaff enjoys a four-season climate; winter-daytime temperatures are cool, averaging 45 degrees (Fahrenheit). Summer-daytime temperatures are comfortable, averaging 80 degrees, which is pleasant compared with nearby low-elevation deserts. Flagstaff?s precipitation averages 22-inches per year with a range of 9 to 39 inches. Snowfall occurs each season, averaging 97 inches annually. This report, written for the non-technical reader, interprets climate variation at Flagstaff as observed at the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Pulliam Field (or Airport), a first-order weather station staffed by meteorologists (Staudenmaier and others, 2007). The station is on a flat-topped ridge surrounded by forest 5-miles south of Flagstaff at an elevation of 7,003 feet. Data used in this analysis are daily measurements of precipitation (including snowfall) and temperature (maximum and minimum) covering the period from 1950, when the station began operation, through spring 2007. Conversations with Byron Peterson and Michael Staudenmaier of the NWS helped us understand the difficulties of collecting consistent weather data, operation of the station, and Flagstaff's climate. Weather is the daily or even instantaneous state of temperature and precipitation. Climate is the average or accumulation of these parameters over longer time scales such as a week, month, or year. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) and annual averages of temperature and accumulated precipitation describe the temporal variation of Flagstaff's climate, which is shown graphically with time series (figs. 2, 4, 6, 8-15). These plots show precipitation or temperature on the ordinate plotted against time on the abscissa, which is a year for annually repeating data or the year of a particular season. The plots reveal changing patterns of precipitation and temperature related to droughts, wet episodes, and rising temperatures.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.

PubMed

Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D

2018-02-01

We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

Winter honey bee colony losses, Varroa destructor control strategies, and the role of weather conditions: Results from a survey among beekeepers.

PubMed

Beyer, Marco; Junk, Jürgen; Eickermann, Michael; Clermont, Antoine; Kraus, François; Georges, Carlo; Reichart, Andreas; Hoffmann, Lucien

2018-06-01

Sets of treatments that were applied against varroa mites in the Luxembourgish beekeeper community were surveyed annually with a questionnaire between the winters 2010/11 and 2014/15. The average temperature and the precipitation sum of the month, when the respective varroa control method was applied were considered as co-variables when evaluating the efficacy of varroa control regimes. Success or failure of control regimes was evaluated based on the percentage of colonies lost per apiary in the winter following the treatment(s). Neither a positive nor a negative effect of formic acid (concentration 60%, w/v) on the colony losses could be found, irrespective of the weather conditions around the time of application. The higher concentration of 85% formic acid was linked with reduced colony losses when applications were done in August. Colony losses were reduced when Thymovar was applied in July or August, but applications in September were associated with increased losses compared with apiaries not treated with Thymovar during the same period. Apilife application in July as well as Apivar applications between July and September were associated with reduced colony losses. The removal of the drone brood and trickled oxalic acid application had beneficial effects when being done in April and December, respectively. Relatively warm (3.0±1.3°C) and wet (507.0±38.6mm/2months) conditions during the winter months December and January and relatively cool (17.2±1.4°C average monthly temperature) and wet (110.8±55.5mm/month) conditions in July were associated with elevated honey bee colony losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HO2NO2 and HNO3 in the coastal Antarctic winter night: A "lab-in-the-field" experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anna; Brough, Neil; Anderson, Philip; Wolff, Eric

2015-04-01

Observations of peroxynitric acid (HO2NO2) and nitric acid (HNO3) were made during a 4 month period of Antarctic winter darkness at the coastal Antarctic research station, Halley. Mixing ratios of HNO3 ranged from instrumental detection limits to 8 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), and of HO2NO2 from detection limits to 5 pptv; the average ratio of HNO3:HO2NO2 was 2.0(±0.6):1, with HNO3 always present at greater mixing ratios than HO2NO2 during the winter darkness. An extremely strong association existed for the entire measurement period between mixing ratios of the respective trace gases and temperature: for HO2NO2, R2 = 0.72, and for HNO3, R2 = 0.70. We focus on three cases with considerable variation in temperature, where wind speeds were low and constant, such that, with the lack of photochemistry, changes in mixing ratio were likely to be driven by physical mechanisms alone. We derived enthalpies of adsorption (ΔHads) for these three cases. The average ΔHads for HNO3 was -42±2 kJ.mol-1 and for HO2NO2 was -56±1kJ.mol-1; these values are extremely close to those derived in laboratory studies. This exercise demonstrates i) that adsorption to/desorption from the snow pack should be taken into account when addressing budgets of boundary layer HO2NO2 and HNO3 at any snow-covered site, and ii) that Antarctic winter can be used as a natural 'laboratory in the field' for testing data on physical exchange mechanisms.

Thermoregulatory challenges in the habitat of the world's smallest tortoise, Chersobius signatus.

PubMed

Loehr, Victor J T

2018-01-01

Ectotherms have various means of dealing with low environmental temperatures, but relatively few species have been rigorously investigated. Consequently, we have little information to predict how ectotherm populations might respond to global temperature changes. Tortoises from temperate and subtropical regions often overcome periodically cool conditions by hibernation, but speckled dwarf tortoises (Chersobius signatus) need to remain active to exploit ephemeral resources in their arid winter-rainfall habitat. This study investigated how dwarf tortoises cope with low temperatures in winter and spring, by measuring thermal habitat quality and thermoregulation based on differently-sized operative temperature models in sun, shade, and in deep crevices. Investigations continued in summer and autumn to obtain a year-round picture of thermoregulatory challenges. Although large models (i.e., larger than dwarf tortoises) were expected to have lower operative temperatures than smaller models, due to the former's larger thermal inertia, all model sizes had similar temperatures. Hence, the species' small body size does not appear constrained by obtainable body temperatures in cool seasons. Nevertheless, low operative temperatures in winter posed a challenge for the tortoises, which reached their field-preferred body temperature for an average of only 0.8-0.9h per day. Moreover, a low thermoregulation effectiveness suggested that tortoises traded-off physiological benefits of favourable body temperatures against predation risk. Spring and autumn provided higher temperatures, but summer caused the greatest thermoregulatory challenge. Although summer body temperatures were closer to field-preferred body temperature than in any other season, tortoises required rock crevices to avoid overheating. The small size of dwarf tortoises might help them utilise crevices. In summer, maximum operative temperatures in crevices were similar to field-preferred body temperature, indicating that an increase in environmental temperatures might be detrimental to dwarf tortoises. In light of projected temperature rises, future studies should assess if dwarf tortoises can cope with higher environmental temperatures in summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A time series study on the effects of cold temperature on road traffic injuries in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Won-Kyung; Lee, Hye-Ah; Hwang, Seung-sik; Kim, Ho; Lim, Youn-Hee; Hong, Yun-Chul; Ha, Eun-Hee; Park, Hyesook

2014-07-01

Although traffic accidents are associated with weather, the influence of temperature on injuries from traffic accidents has not been evaluated sufficiently. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of temperature, especially cold temperatures, on injuries from traffic accidents in Seoul, Korea. We also explored the relationship of temperature with different types of traffic accident. The daily frequencies of injuries from traffic accidents in Seoul were summarized from the integrated database established by the Korea Road Traffic Authority. Weather data included temperature, barometric pressure, rainfall, snow, and fog from May 2007 to December 2011. The qualitative relationship between daily mean temperature and injuries from traffic accidents was evaluated using a generalized additive model with Poisson distribution. Further analysis was performed using piecewise linear regression if graph the showed non-linearity with threshold. The incidence of injuries was 216 per 100,000 person-months in Seoul. The effect of temperature on injuries from traffic accidents was minimal during spring and summer. However, injuries showed a more striking relationship with temperature in winter than in other seasons. In winter, the number of injuries increased as the temperature decreased to <0°C. The injuries increased by 2.1% per 1°C decrease under the threshold of the daily average temperature -5.7°C, which is 10-fold greater than the effect of temperature above the threshold. Some groups were more susceptible to injuries, such as young and male drivers, according to the types of traffic accident when the temperature decreased to below the freezing temperature. The incidence of injuries increased sharply when the temperature decreased below freezing temperature in winter. Temperature can be effectively used to inform high risk of road traffic injuries, thus helping to prevent road traffic injuries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linkages Between Multiscale Global Sea Surface Temperature Change and Precipitation Variabilities in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Weng, Heng-Yi

1999-01-01

A growing number of evidence indicates that there are coherent patterns of variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly not only at interannual timescales, but also at decadal-to-inter-decadal timescale and beyond. The multi-scale variabilities of SST anomaly have shown great impacts on climate. In this work, we analyze multiple timescales contained in the globally averaged SST anomaly with and their possible relationship with the summer and winter rainfall in the United States over the past four decades.

Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palat Rao, Mukund; Davi, Nicole K.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Skees, Jerry; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Leland, Caroline; Lyon, Bradfield; Wang, Shih-Yu; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa

2015-07-01

Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000-2002, and 2009-2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November-February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July-September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013.

Nine year active layer thermal monitoring at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Maritime Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Roberto; Andrade, André; Simas, Felipe; Silva, Tássio; Loureiro, Diego; Schaefer, Carlos

2017-04-01

Most global circulation models predict enhanced rates of climate change, particularly temperature increase, at higher latitudes witch are currently faced with rapid rates of regional climate change (Convey 2006, Vaughan et al. 2003, Quayle et al. 2002), Antarctic ecosystems are expected to show particular sensitivity and rapid responses (Freckman and Virginia 1997, Quayle et al. 2002, 2003). The active layer and permafrost are important components of the cryosphere due to their role in energy flux regulation and sensitivity to climate change (Kane et al., 2001; Smith and Brown, 2009). Compared with other regions of the globe, our understanding of Antarctic permafrost is poor, especially in relation to its thermal state and evolution, (Bockheim, 1995, Bockheim et al., 2008). The active layer monitoring site was installed in the summer of 2008, and consists of thermistors (accuracy ± 0.2 °C) arranged in a vertical array (Turbic Eutric Cryosol 60 m asl, 10.5 cm, 32.5 cm, 67.5 cm and 83.5 cm). All probes were connected to a Campbell Scientific CR 1000 data logger recording data at hourly intervals from March 1st 2008 until November 30th 2012. We calculated the thawing days (TD), freezing days (FD); thawing degree days (TDD) and freezing degree days (FDD); all according to Guglielmin et al. (2008). The active lawyer thickness was calculated as the 0 °C depth by extrapolating the thermal gradient from the two deepest temperature measurements (Guglielmin, 2006). The temperature at 10.5 cm reaches a maximum daily average (5.6 °C) in late January 2015, reaching a minimum (-9.6 °C) in in early August 2011, at 83.5 cm maximum daily average (0.6 °C) was reached in mid March 2009 and minimum (-5.5 °C) also in early August 2011. The years of 2008, 2009 and 2011 recorded thaw days at the bottom of the profile (62 and 49 in 2009 and 2011), and logged the highest soil moisture contents of the time series (62%, 59% and 63%). Seasonal variability of the active layer shows disparities between different years, especially in bottom most layer, where high summer temperatures trigger a increase in soil moisture content that can endure for several seasons. The winter of 2014 also deserves special attention, being the mildest winter recorded during the studied period; in July minimum monthly temperatures were -3.2 °C and -1.9 °C at 10.5 cm and 83.5 cm, it experienced 17 FD summing -0.61 FDD, average for the whole period was -7.5 °C, -3.9 °C, 27 FD and -55 FDD (2008 also had a mild winter but still hold 21 FD and -0,88 FDD at 83.5 cm in July). The summer of 2009 was the warmest facing 31 thawing days and summing 105 thawing degree days at 10.5 cm in January (28.7 thawing days and 66.3 thawing degree days average). The profile showed a increase in soil water content annual during warm summers, persisting for the following seasons, average is 44 % in 2008, 32 % in 2012 closing the time series with a annual average of 27 % in 2016, all values at 83.5 cm. Active layer thickness varied between 86 cm (max of 2015, March) and 117 cm (max of 2009, March). The active layer thermal regime over a 9 year period at Fildes Peninsula shows great variation between years, 2008, 2009 and 2011 presenting warm summers and 2014 being abnormally warm during Winter. Temperature fluctuations can affect the active layer in depth and the effects of warmer temperatures in the bottom of the profile can increase soil water content for several seasons.

Assessment of COSMIC radio occultation and AIRS hyperspectral IR sounder temperature products in the stratosphere using observed radiances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feltz, M. L.; Knuteson, R. O.; Revercomb, H. E.

2017-08-01

Upper air temperature is defined as an essential climate variable by the World Meteorological Organization. Two remote sensing technologies being promoted for monitoring stratospheric temperatures are GPS radio occultation (RO) and spectrally resolved IR radiances. This study assesses RO and hyperspectral IR sounder derived temperature products within the stratosphere by comparing IR spectra calculated from GPS RO and IR sounder products to coincident IR observed radiances, which are used as a reference standard. RO dry temperatures from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission are compared to NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrievals using a previously developed profile-to-profile collocation method and vertical temperature averaging kernels. Brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated for both COSMIC and AIRS temperature products and are then compared to coincident AIRS measurements. The COSMIC calculated minus AIRS measured BTs exceed the estimated 0.5 K measurement uncertainty for the winter time extratropics around 35 hPa. These differences are attributed to seasonal UCAR COSMIC biases. Unphysical vertical oscillations are seen in the AIRS L2 temperature product in austral winter Antarctic regions, and results imply a small AIRS tropical warm bias around 35 hPa in the middle stratosphere.

A teleconnection study of interannual sea surface temperature fluctuations in the northern North Atlantic and precipitation and runoff over Western Siberia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peng, S.; Mysak, L.A.

The spatial distributions of northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure anomalies averaged over six consecutive warm SST winters (1951-1956) and six consecutive cold SST winters (1971-1976) are examined. Three SLP anomaly difference (i.e., warm - cold winters) centers, significant at the 5% level, are observed over the northern North Atlantic, Europe, and western Siberia. This anomaly pattern is consistent in principle with what was identified in a related analyses by Palmer and Sun, who used composite data from selected winter months. The SLP difference centers over the northern North Atlantic and westernmore » Siberia are in phase. The impact of the latter center upon the runoff from the underlying Ob and Yenisey rivers and especially the teleconnection between SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic and runoff of those two rivers via the atmosphere are investigated. The temporal cross-correlation analyses of 50 years (1930-1979) of records of SST, precipitation, and runoff anomalies indicate that the winter SST anomalies in the northern North Atlantic are significantly correlated with the winter and following summer runoff fluctuations of the Ob and Yenisey rivers. Positive (negative) northern North Atlantic SST anomalies are related to less (more) precipitation, and hence, less (more) runoff, over western Siberia. Discussions of possible physical mechanisms and processes that lead to the above relationships are attempted. The analyses of spatial distributions of precipitation in the warm and cold SST winters suggest that precipitation fluctuations over Europe and western Siberia may be affected by shifts of cyclone tracks associated with the SST variations in the northern North Atlantic. 27 refs., 9 figs.« less

[Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu: A review].

PubMed

Yang, Feng-ke; He, Bao-lin; Gao, Shi-ming

2015-03-01

The climate of Gansu turned to be overall warming-drying and partly warming-wetting since 1986. In contrast to that of 1960, the average annual temperature had raised by 1.1°C with the average annual precipitation decreased by 28 mm correspondingly, which made the arid region expanded southward by 50 km in 2010. Climate warming increased the growth period effective accumulated temperature of main food grain crops and lengthened the crop growth period. It changed crop maturity, crop disposition, cropping system and generally increased the cultivatable area and planting altitude above the sea level of major crops and expanded northward the multiple cropping system, which further resulted in expansion of autumn grain crop sown area, shrink of summer grain crop sown area, and replacement of strong winter early maturing varieties by weak winter middle late maturing varieties. It benefited the crop yield by increasing the use efficiency of photo-thermal resources. Warming-wetting climate increased the climate productivity of oasis crop while warming-drying weather decreased the climate productivity of rainfed crops, which were mostly determined by the precipitation regimes and water conditions. Any advanced technique that can increase precipitation use ratio and water use efficiency as well as improve and promote soil quality and fertility should be regarded as an effective countermeasure to increase food grain production under climate change in Gsansu. So, selecting and breeding new crop varieties with the characteristics of strong resistance, weak winter, middle-late mature and high water use efficiency, establishing new planting structure and cropping system that suitable to the precipitation and temperature features of changed climate, are the development direction of food grain production in Gansu to cope with the climate change.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B

2016-03-15

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air-sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline.

The Remarkable 2003--2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Kruger, Kirstin; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Sena, Sara Amina; Pawson, Steven

2005-01-01

The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

Sea surface salinity and temperature-based predictive modeling of southwestern US winter precipitation: improvements, errors, and potential mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

Using 69 years of historical data from 1948-2017, we developed a method to globally search for sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) predictors of regional terrestrial precipitation. We then applied this method to build an autumn (SON) SSS and SST-based 3-month lead predictive model of winter (DJF) precipitation in southwestern United States. We also find that SSS-only models perform better than SST-only models. We previously used an arbitrary correlation coefficient (r) threshold, |r| > 0.25, to define SSS and SST predictor polygons for best subset regression of southwestern US winter precipitation; from preliminary sensitivity tests, we find that |r| > 0.18 yields the best models. The observed below-average precipitation (0.69 mm/day) in winter 2015-2016 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the prediction model. However, the model underestimates the anomalous high precipitation (1.78 mm/day) in winter 2016-2017 by more than three-fold. Moisture transport mainly attributed to "pineapple express" atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter 2016-2017 suggests that the model falls short on a sub-seasonal scale, in which case storms from ARs contribute a significant portion of seasonal terrestrial precipitation. Further, we identify a potential mechanism for long-range SSS and precipitation teleconnections: standing Rossby waves. The heat applied to the atmosphere from anomalous tropical rainfall can generate standing Rossby waves that propagate to higher latitudes. SSS anomalies may be indicative of anomalous tropical rainfall, and by extension, standing Rossby waves that provide the long-range teleconnections.

Thermal conditions in the bathroom in winter and summer, and physiological responses of the elderly during bathing.

PubMed

Kanda, K; Tsuchiya, J; Seto, M; Ohnaka, T; Tochihara, Y

1995-06-01

Thermal conditions in the bathroom and physiological responses were examined during winter and summer. The subjects were 22 male and 20 female elderly people, between 65 and 88 years old living in 25 houses in Gunma Prefecture, Japan. Heart rate, blood pressure, skin temperature and thermal sensation were measured during bathing. Changes in thermal sensation due to bathing were assessed in the living room and dressing room on a 9-point scale. Then they were asked about the purposes of bathing and the facilities of bathroom and dressing room. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The purpose of bathing in winter was to warm up for more than 80% of the subjects. In summer, all subjects felt refreshed by bathing. Eighty-five percent of the subjects took a bath every other day in both seasons. 2. Fifty-two percent of the bathrooms had no ventilating fans and 32% had no exclusive dressing rooms. 3. The average room temperature in the dressing rooms was 13-14 degrees C in winter. Thermal sensation was 'cool', 'slightly cold' or 'cold' for more than two-thirds of the subjects when they were partially nude, and there were no heaters in most dressing rooms. 4. The heart rate increased steadily, and reached a maximum value in a partially dressed condition in both seasons. 5. In winter, a marked increase of systolic blood pressure was observed in the partially nude condition. There was a significant difference between the before bathing condition and partially nude condition in winter.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Lightning Evolution In Two North Central Florida Summer Multicell Storms and Three Winter/Spring Frontal Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.

2018-01-01

We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.

Temporal Changes in the Observed Relationship between Cloud Cover and Surface Air Temperature.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bomin; Groisman, Pavel Ya.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Keimig, Frank T.

2000-12-01

The relationship between cloud cover and near-surface air temperature and its decadal changes are examined using the hourly synoptic data for the past four to six decades from five regions of the Northern Hemisphere: Canada, the United States, the former Soviet Union, China, and tropical islands of the western Pacific. The authors define the normalized cloud cover-surface air temperature relationship, NOCET or dT/dCL, as a temperature anomaly with a unit (one-tenth) deviation of total cloud cover from its average value. Then mean monthly NOCET time series (night- and daytime, separately) are area-averaged and parameterized as functions of surface air humidity and snow cover. The day- and nighttime NOCET variations are strongly anticorrelated with changes in surface humidity. Furthermore, the daytime NOCET changes are positively correlated to changes in snow cover extent. The regionally averaged nighttime NOCET varies from 0.05 K tenth1 in the wet Tropics to 1.0 K tenth1 at midlatitudes in winter. The daytime regional NOCET ranges from 0.4 K tenth1 in the Tropics to 0.7 K tenth1 at midlatitudes in winter.The authors found a general strengthening of a daytime surface cooling during the post-World War II period associated with cloud cover over the United States and China, but a minor reduction of this cooling in higher latitudes. Furthermore, since the 1970s, a prominent increase in atmospheric humidity has significantly weakened the effectiveness of the surface warming (best seen at nighttime) associated with cloud cover.The authors apportion the spatiotemporal field of interactions between total cloud cover and surface air temperature into a bivariate relationship (described by two equations, one for daytime and one for nighttime) with surface air humidity and snow cover and two constant factors. These factors are invariant in space and time domains. It is speculated that they may represent empirical estimates of the overall cloud cover effect on the surface air temperature.

Climate and smoke - An appraisal of nuclear winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Sagan, C.

1990-01-01

A reevaluation is presented of the 'nuclear winter' scenario of Turco et al. (1983). New pertinent data have emerged from laboratory studies, field experiments, and numerical models on the smoke-plume, mesoscale, and global scales. A full-scale nuclear exchange's probable soot injections lead, in three-dimensional climate simulations, to midsummer land temperature decreases averaging 10-20 C in northern midlatitudes, with local cooling of as much as 35 C. Anomalous circulation patterns due to solar heating of the soot could stabilize the upper atmosphere against overturning, thereby prolonging the soot's residence time in the atmosphere. Monsoon disruptions and severe ozone layer depletion are also foreseen.

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa.

PubMed

Kapwata, Thandi; Gebreslasie, Michael T; Mathee, Angela; Wright, Caradee Yael

2018-05-10

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4⁻6 °C for the period 2071⁻2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088⁻2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

Frozen Cropland Soil in Northeast China as Source of N2O and CO2 Emissions

PubMed Central

Qiao, Yunfa; Han, Xiaozeng; Brancher Franco, Roberta

2014-01-01

Agricultural soils are important sources of atmospheric N2O and CO2. However, in boreal agro-ecosystems the contribution of the winter season to annual emissions of these gases has rarely been determined. In this study, soil N2O and CO2 fluxes were measured for 6 years in a corn-soybean-wheat rotation in northeast China to quantify the contribution of wintertime N2O and CO2 fluxes to annual emissions. The treatments were chemical fertilizer (NPK), chemical fertilizer plus composted pig manure (NPKOM), and control (Cont.). Mean soil N2O fluxes among all three treatments in the winter (November–March), when soil temperatures are below −7°C for extended periods, were 0.89–3.01 µg N m−2 h−1, and in between the growing season and winter (October and April), when freeze-thaw events occur, 1.73–5.48 µg N m−2 h−1. The cumulative N2O emissions were on average 0.27–1.39, 0.03–0.08 and 0.03–0.11 kg N2O–N ha−1 during the growing season, October and April, and winter, respectively. The average contributions of winter N2O efflux to annual emissions were 6.3–12.1%. In all three seasons, the highest N2O emissions occurred in NPKOM, while NPK and Cont. emissions were similar. Cumulative CO2 emissions were 2.73–4.94, 0.13–0.20 and 0.07–0.11 Mg CO2-C ha−1 during growing season, October and April, and winter, respectively. The contribution of winter CO2 to total annual emissions was 2.0–2.4%. Our results indicate that in boreal agricultural systems in northeast China, CO2 and N2O emissions continue throughout the winter. PMID:25536036

Seed Dormancy, After‐ripening and Light Requirements of Four Annual Asteraceae in South‐western Australia

PubMed Central

SCHÜTZ, W.; MILBERG, P.; LAMONT, B. B.

2002-01-01

The role of dormancy, temperature and light in the regulation of seed germination of four annual Asteraceae from south‐western Australia was investigated. The experiments aimed to identify after‐ripening patterns, and to relate these to climatic conditions of the habitat in which the species occur. Seeds of all species were strongly dormant at maturity and maintained high levels of dormancy for time periods corresponding to the duration of summer in south‐western Australia. Dry after‐ripening was promoted best by temperatures lower than those prevailing in the dry season, although differences among storage temperatures were mostly insignificant. Germination percentages were highest at average winter temperatures (15 °C). A logistic model revealed significant differences in germinability among species, but not between incubation temperatures or light and dark treatments across species. Three species with seeds >0·5 mg germinated better in darkness than in light, whereas germination in darkness was almost inhibited in the species with the smallest seeds (0·14 mg). The course of dormancy loss, tested over a range of fluctuating incubation temperatures (7–30 °C), showed that seeds of three species came out of dormancy first at temperatures that prevail in south‐western Australia during the winter (10–15 °C). Seeds from one species, introduced from South Africa, first lost dormancy at the lowest temperature (7 °C). All species showed after‐ripening patterns of Type 1, typical of species growing in Mediterranean climates. The germination characteristics of the investigated species can be interpreted as ensuring that initial growth and establishment occur during the winter growing season, thereby avoiding the hot and dry summer conditions that follow seed dispersal. PMID:12451026

Winter Survival of Meloidogyne incognita in Six Soil Types

PubMed Central

Windham, G. L.; Barker, K. R.

1988-01-01

Winter survival of Meloidogyne incognita in six soil types (Fuquay sand, Norfolk loamy sand, Portsmouth loamy sand, muck, Cecil sandy clay loam, and Cecil sandy clay) was determined in microplots at one location from November 1981 to May 1982 and from November 1982 to March 1983. Survival, based on second-stage juveniles (J2) of M. incognita, from November 1981 until May 1982 ranged from 1% in the muck soil to 6% in a Cecil sandy clay loam, but survival rates were much higher the next year following a winter with higher average temperatures. Survival rates of J2 from November to March ranged from 20 to 40% the first winter and from 38 to 87% the second. Soil type did not have a striking effect on the overwintering capabilities ofM. incognita. There were no differences between clay and sand soils, whereas survival of J2 in the muck tended to be lower than in the mineral soils. PMID:19290193

Winter Survival of Meloidogyne incognita in Six Soil Types.

PubMed

Windham, G L; Barker, K R

1988-01-01

Winter survival of Meloidogyne incognita in six soil types (Fuquay sand, Norfolk loamy sand, Portsmouth loamy sand, muck, Cecil sandy clay loam, and Cecil sandy clay) was determined in microplots at one location from November 1981 to May 1982 and from November 1982 to March 1983. Survival, based on second-stage juveniles (J2) of M. incognita, from November 1981 until May 1982 ranged from 1% in the muck soil to 6% in a Cecil sandy clay loam, but survival rates were much higher the next year following a winter with higher average temperatures. Survival rates of J2 from November to March ranged from 20 to 40% the first winter and from 38 to 87% the second. Soil type did not have a striking effect on the overwintering capabilities ofM. incognita. There were no differences between clay and sand soils, whereas survival of J2 in the muck tended to be lower than in the mineral soils.

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analysis: Winter (II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez Hidalgo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, Michele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of winter and its corresponding months (December, January, February) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal trend analyses of Tmax shows that global trend 1951-2010 was positive and significant mostly in central-western areas; from 1970 to 2010 there is less than 20% of land with significant trend. In the case of Tmin no relevant significant period is detected. • Monthly Tmax analyses show that December significant trend changed from positive (>20%) in between 1955-2010 until 1962-2010, to negative from 1976-2010. Meanwhile January does not show relevant period with significant trend; finally Tmax in February shows different periods with positive significant trend (>20% of land) 1951-2010 to 1954-2010 and 1962-2010 to 1968-2010. No significant trend is detected after this data. • Monthly Tmin trend analyses show that except exceptional period, no months present any significant trend. As conclusions, we have detected that for winter and winter-months, Tmax trends are not significant from 1970 across Spanish mainland. In the case of Tmin we conclude that no significant trend have been occurred in any temporal windows analyzed. Results differ from what traditionally has been assumed that the increase of the average annual temperature was due to the increase of trends in the winter season. And these analyses also show that seasonal trend values could hide monthly behavior. So extreme caution should be taken into account when seasonal values are offered.

Dialogue on Climate, Water, Energy and Human Security in Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

winter periods.  The influence of the  ocean  mass on the coastal areas can be seen, with slightly lower increases in  average temperatures.       Figure 1...adaptation 1 1’ ~ + -foradaptllion m \\...A..AJ to reduce risk .... :’\\: " -••• \\ Warming Extreme Extreme Damaging Ocean Sea surface I Precipitation Sea...level Risk level with Risk level with trend temperature precipitation cyclone acidification temperature high adaptation cuJTentadaptation Institutions

Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.

2014-06-01

Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) aremore » found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.« less

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, Joan; Rodó, Xavier; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard

2016-10-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (see ref. ) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe.

Plasticity in body temperature and metabolic capacity sustains winter activity in a small endotherm (Rattus fuscipes).

PubMed

Glanville, Elsa J; Seebacher, Frank

2010-03-01

Small mammals that remain active throughout the year at a constant body temperature have a much greater energy and food requirement in winter. Lower body temperatures in winter may offset the increased energetic cost of remaining active in the cold, if cellular metabolism is not constrained by a negative thermodynamic effect. We aimed to determine whether variable body temperatures can be advantageous for small endotherms by testing the hypothesis that body temperature fluctuates seasonally in a wild rat (Rattus fuscipes); conferring an energy saving and reducing food requirements during resource restricted winter. Additionally we tested whether changes in body temperature affected tissue specific metabolic capacity. Winter acclimatized rats had significantly lower body temperatures and thicker fur than summer acclimatized rats. Mitochondrial oxygen consumption and the activity of enzymes that control oxidative (citrate synthase, cytochrome c-oxidase) and anaerobic (lactate dehydrogenase) metabolism were elevated in winter and were not negatively affected by the lower body temperature. Energy transfer modeling showed that lower body temperatures in winter combined with increased fur thickness to confer a 25 kJ day(-1) energy saving, with up to 50% owing to reduced body temperature alone. We show that phenotypic plasticity at multiple levels of organization is an important component of the response of a small endotherm to winter. Mitochondrial function compensates for lower winter body temperatures, buffering metabolic heat production capacity. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Upper lethal temperatures in three cold-tolerant insects are higher in winter than in summer.

PubMed

Vu, Henry M; Duman, John G

2017-08-01

Upper lethal temperatures (ULTs) of cold-adapted insect species in winter have not been previously examined. We anticipated that as the lower lethal temperatures (LLTs) decreased (by 20-30°C) with the onset of winter, the ULTs would also decrease accordingly. Consequently, given the recent increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles and warmer winters due to climate change, it became of interest to determine whether ambient temperatures during thaws were approaching ULTs during the cold seasons. However, beetle Dendroides canadensis (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) larvae had higher 24 and 48 h ULT 50 (the temperature at which 50% mortality occurred) in winter than in summer. The 24 and 48 h ULT 50 for D. canadensis in winter were 40.9 and 38.7°C, respectively. For D. canadensis in summer, the 24 and 48 h ULT 50 were 36.7 and 36.4°C. During the transition periods of spring and autumn, the 24 h ULT 50 was 37.3 and 38.5°C, respectively. While D. canadensis in winter had a 24 h LT 50 range between LLT and ULT of 64°C, the summer range was only 41°C. Additionally, larvae of the beetle Cucujus clavipes clavipes (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) and the cranefly Tipula trivittata (Diptera: Tipulidae) also had higher ULTs in winter than in summer. This unexpected phenomenon of increased temperature survivorship at both lower and higher temperatures in the winter compared with that in the summer has not been previously documented. With the decreased high temperature tolerance as the season progresses from winter to summer, it was observed that environmental temperatures are closest to upper lethal temperatures in spring. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Soil Variable Permeability and Water Phase Change Dynamics in a Wastewater Spray Irrigation Agricultural System Located in a Seasonably Cold Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darnault, C. J. G.; Daniel, T. J.; Billy, G.; Hopkins, I.; Guo, L.; Jin, Z.; Gall, H. E.; Lin, H.

2017-12-01

The permeability of the upper meter of soils in frozen conditions, commonly referred to as the active layer, can vary exponentially given the time of year. Variable moisture contents along with temperature, radiation, and slope angle of the soil surface can result in variable depths of frozen soils, which can cause the formation of low permeability ice lenses well into the spring thaw period. The wastewater irrigation site known as the "Living Filter" located in State College, PA has been in continuous operation since 1962. On average 5500 m3/day of wastewater is applied to the site annually, even in the winter months when average temperatures can dip as low as -7 °C during the month of January. The Living Filter is not permitted to discharge to surface water and is intended to recharge the Spring Creek basin that directly underlies the site, therefore runoff from the site is not permitted. We hypothesize that water infiltrates the upper meter of the subsurface during the winter in several different ways such as preferential pathways in the ice layer created by plant stems and weak patches of ice thawed by the warm wastewater. 2D conceptual models of the phase change between ice and water in the soil were created in order to predict soil permeability and its change in temperature. The 2D conceptual models can be correlated between observed soil moisture content and soil temperature data in order to validate the model given spray irrigation and weather patterns. By determining the permeability of the frozen soils, irrigation practices can be adjusted for the winter months so as to reduce the risk of any accidental wastewater runoff. The impact of this study will result in a better understanding of the multiphase dynamics of the active layer and their implication on soil hydrology at the Living Filter and other seasonally frozen sites.

Climate influence on Baltic cod, sprat, and herring stock-recruitment relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margonski, Piotr; Hansson, Sture; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Grzebielec, Ryszard

2010-10-01

A wide range of possible recruitment drivers were tested for key exploited fish species in the Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council (RAC) area: Eastern Baltic Cod, Central Baltic Herring, Gulf of Riga Herring, and sprat. For each of the stocks, two hypotheses were tested: (i) recruitment is significantly related to spawning stock biomass, climatic forcing, and feeding conditions and (ii) by acknowledging these drivers, management decisions can be improved. Climate impact expressed by climatic indices or changes in water temperature was included in all the final models. Recruitment of the herring stock appeared to be influenced by different factors: the spawning stock biomass, winter Baltic Sea Index prior to spawning, and potentially the November-December sea surface temperature during the winter after spawning were important to Gulf of Riga Herring, while the final models for Central Baltic Herring included spawning stock biomass and August sea surface temperature. Recruitment of sprat appeared to be influenced by July-August temperature, but was independent of the spawning biomass when SSB > 200,000 tons. Recruitment of Eastern Baltic Cod was significantly related to spawning stock biomass, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, and the reproductive volume in the Gotland Basin in May. All the models including extrinsic factors significantly improved prediction ability as compared to traditional models, which account for impacts of the spawning stock biomass alone. Based on the final models the minimum spawning stock biomass to derive the associated minimum recruitment under average environmental conditions was calculated for each stock. Using uncertainty analyses, the spawning stock biomass required to produce associated minimum recruitment was presented with different probabilities considering the influence of the extrinsic drivers. This tool allows for recruitment to be predicted with a required probability, that is, higher than the average 50% estimated from the models. Further, this approach considers unfavorable environmental conditions which mean that a higher spawning stock biomass is needed to maintain recruitment at a required level.

Probability density functions characterizing PSC particle size distribution parameters for NAT and STS derived from in situ measurements between 1989 and 2010 above McMurdo Station, Antarctica, and between 1991-2004 above Kiruna, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshler, Terry

2016-04-01

Balloon-borne optical particle counters were used to make in situ size resolved particle concentration measurements within polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) over 20 years in the Antarctic and over 10 years in the Arctic. The measurements were made primarily during the late winter in the Antarctic and in the early and mid-winter in the Arctic. Measurements in early and mid-winter were also made during 5 years in the Antarctic. For the analysis bimodal lognormal size distributions are fit to 250 meter averages of the particle concentration data. The characteristics of these fits, along with temperature, water and nitric acid vapor mixing ratios, are used to classify the PSC observations as either NAT, STS, ice, or some mixture of these. The vapor mixing ratios are obtained from satellite when possible, otherwise assumptions are made. This classification of the data is used to construct probability density functions for NAT, STS, and ice number concentration, median radius and distribution width for mid and late winter clouds in the Antarctic and for early and mid-winter clouds in the Arctic. Additional analysis is focused on characterizing the temperature histories associated with the particle classes and the different time periods. The results from theses analyses will be presented, and should be useful to set bounds for retrievals of PSC properties from remote measurements, and to constrain model representations of PSCs.

Statistical inhomogeneity of dates of sudden stratospheric warmings in the wintertime northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenkova, E. N.; Gavrilov, N. M.; Pogoreltsev, A. I.; Manuilova, R. O.

2017-05-01

Using the data of meteorological information reanalysis, a statistical analysis of dates of the main sudden stratospheric warmings observed in 1958-2014 has been performed and their inhomogeneous distribution in winter months with maximums in the beginning of January, from the end of January to the beginning of February, and in the end of February has been shown. To explain these regularities, a climatological analysis of variations in the amplitudes and vertical components of Eliassen-Palm fluxes created by large-scale planetary waves (PWs), as well as of zonal-mean winds and deviations of temperature from their winter-average values in high northern latitudes at heights of up to 50 km from the surface has been carried out using the 20-year (1995-2014) collection of daily meteorological information from the UK Met Office database. During the aforementioned intervals of observing more frequent sudden stratospheric warmings, climatological maximums of temperature perturbations, local minimums of eastward winds, and local maximums of the amplitude and Eliassen-Palm fluxes of PWs with a zonal wavenumber of 1 in the high-latitude northern stratosphere were found. Distinctions between atmospheric characteristics averaged over two last decades have been revealed.

Understanding long-term (1982-2013) patterns and trends in winter wheat spring green-up date over the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Sisi; Mo, Xingguo; Liu, Zhengjia; Baig, Muhammad Hasan Ali; Chi, Wenfeng

2017-05-01

Monitoring the spring green-up date (GUD) has grown in importance for crop management and food security. However, most satellite-based GUD models are associated with a high degree of uncertainty when applied to croplands. In this study, we introduced an improved GUD algorithm to extract GUD data for 32 years (1982-2013) for the winter wheat croplands on the North China Plain (NCP), using the third-generation normalized difference vegetation index form Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g NDVI). The spatial and temporal variations in GUD with the effects of the pre-season climate and soil moisture conditions on GUD were comprehensively investigated. Our results showed that a higher correlation coefficient (r = 0.44, p < 0.01) and lower root mean square error (22 days) and bias (16 days) were observed in GUD from the improved algorithm relative to GUD from the MCD12Q2 phenology product. In spatial terms, GUD increased from the southwest (less than day of year (DOY) 60) to the northeast (more than DOY 90) of the NCP, which corresponded to spatial reductions in temperature and precipitation. GUD advanced in most (78%) of the winter wheat area on the NCP, with significant advances in 37.8% of the area (p < 0.05). GUD occurred later at high altitudes and in coastal areas than in inland areas. At the interannual scale, the average GUD advanced from DOY 76.9 in the 1980s (average 1982-1989) to DOY 73.2 in the 1990s (average 1991-1999), and to DOY 70.3 after 2000 (average 2000-2013), indicating an average advance of 1.8 days/decade (r = 0.35, p < 0.05). Although GUD is mainly controlled by the pre-season temperature, our findings underline that the effect of the pre-season soil moisture on GUD should also be considered. The improved GUD algorithm and satellite-based long-term GUD data are helpful for improving the representation of GUD in terrestrial ecosystem models and enhancing crop management efficiency.

Sensitivity of glacier mass balance and equilibrium line altitude to climatic change on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, Ulrike; Lopez, Damian; Silva-Busso, Adrian

2017-04-01

The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula which is among the fastest warming regions on Earth. Surface air temperature increases (ca. 3 K in 50 years) are concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K/100 m), and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns especially during winter glacial mass accumulation periods. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the winter time in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. The impact on winter accumulation results in even more negative mass balance estimates. Six years of glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects are used with a glacier melt model to assess changes in melt water input to the coastal waters, glacier surface mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) calculated from own glaciological observations for KGI over the time period 2010 - 2015 amounts to ELA=330±100 m. Published studies suggest rather stable condition slightly negative glacier mass balance until the mid 80's with an ELA of approx. 150 m. The calculated accumulation area ratio suggests rather dramatic changes in extension of the inland ice cap for the South Shetland Islands until an equilibrium with concurrent climate conditions is reached.

Ecological scale and seasonal heterogeneity in the spatial behaviors of giant pandas.

PubMed

Zhang, Zejun; Sheppard, James K; Swaisgood, Ronald R; Wang, Guan; Nie, Yonggang; Wei, Wei; Zhao, Naxun; Wei, Fuwen

2014-01-01

We report on the first study to track the spatial behaviors of wild giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) using high-resolution global positioning system (GPS) telemetry. Between 2008 and 2009, 4 pandas (2 male and 2 female) were tracked in Foping Reserve, China for an average of 305 days (± 54.8 SE). Panda home ranges were larger than those of previous very high frequency tracking studies, with a bimodal distribution of space-use and distinct winter and summer centers of activity. Home range sizes were larger in winter than in summer, although there was considerable individual variability. All tracked pandas exhibited individualistic, unoriented and multiphasic movement paths, with a high level of tortuosity within seasonal core habitats and directed, linear, large-scale movements between habitats. Pandas moved from low elevation winter habitats to high elevation (>2000 m) summer habitats in May, when temperatures averaged 17.5 °C (± 0.3 SE), and these large-scale movements took <1 month to complete. The peak in panda mean elevation occurred in Jul, after which they began slow, large-scale movements back to winter habitats that were completed in Nov. An adult female panda made 2 longdistance movements during the mating season. Pandas remain close to rivers and streams during winter, possibly reflecting the elevated water requirements to digest their high-fiber food. Panda movement path tortuosity and first-passage-time as a function of spatial scale indicated a mean peak in habitat search effort and patch use of approximately 700 m. Despite a high degree of spatial overlap between panda home ranges, particularly in winter, we detected neither avoidance nor attraction behavior between conspecifics. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

A 28-ka history of sea surface temperature, primary productivity and planktonic community variability in the western Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, Ali; Marcantonio, Franco; Bianchi, Thomas S.; Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Waterson, Elizabeth J.

2007-12-01

Uranium series radionuclides and organic biomarkers, which represent major groups of planktonic organisms, were measured in western Arabian Sea sediments that span the past 28 ka. Variability in the past strength of the southwest and northeast monsoons and its influence on primary productivity, sea surface temperature (SST), and planktonic community structure were investigated. The average alkenone-derived SST for the last glacial period was ˜3°C lower than that measured for the Holocene. Prior to the deglacial, the lowest SSTs coincide with the highest measured fluxes of organic biomarkers, which represent primarily a planktonic suite of diatoms, coccolithophorids, dinoflagellates, and zooplankton. We propose that intensification of winter northeast monsoon winds during the last glacial period resulted in deep convective mixing, cold SSTs and enhanced primary productivity. In contrast, postdeglacial (<17 ka) SSTs are warmer during times in which biomarker fluxes are high. Associated with this transition is a planktonic community structure change, in which the ratio of the average cumulative flux of diatom biomarkers to the cumulative flux of coccolithophorid biomarkers is twice as high during the deglacial and Holocene than the average ratio during the last glacial period. We suggest that this temporal transition represents a shift from a winter northeast monsoon-dominated (pre-17 ka) to a summer southwest monsoon-dominated (post-17 ka) wind system.

Paleoclimate of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period Reconstructed from Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Limpet Shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Surge, D. M.; Mithen, S.

2010-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions from different regions have reported abrupt climate change around 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. The timing of this abrupt climate change is close to the boundary between the Neoglacial (3300-2500 cal yr B.P.) and Roman Warm Period (2500-1600 cal yr B.P.). However, temporal and spatial variability observed in this climate change event raises controversies about the forcing factors driving it and why it has regional variability. Scotland lies in the North Atlantic Ocean, which responds sensitively to climate change. Therefore, even in the case of subtle climate change, the climate variability of Scotland should be able to capture such change. In this study, we expect that paleoclimate reconstructions of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period in Scotland will help improve our knowledge of abrupt climate change at 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. Archaeological shell deposits provide a rich source of climate proxy data preserved as oxygen isotope ratios in shell carbonate. Croig Cave on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, contains a nearly continuous accumulation of shells ranging from 800 BC-500 AD and possibly older. This range represents a broad chronology of human use from the late Bronze to Iron Ages and spans the Neoglacial through Roman Warm Period climate episodes. Here, we present seasonal temperature variability of the two climate episodes based on oxygen isotope ratios of ten limpet shells (Patella vulgata) from Croig Cave. Based on AMS dating (2 sigma calibration), the oldest shell was from 3480-3330 cal yr B.P. and the youngest shell was from 2060-1870 cal yr B.P. Our results indicated that estimated temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets average 6.44±0.56°C for coldest winters and 15.06±0.67°C for warmest summers. For the Roman Warm Period limpets, the average is 5.68±0.36°C for coldest winters and 14.14±0.81°C for warmest summers. We compared our estimated temperatures to the present sea surface temperature (SST) from 1961 to 1990 near our study area, which averages 7.40±0.35°C for coldest month and 14.12±0.54°C for warmest month. Our reconstructed temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets showed slightly (0-1°C) colder winters, similar or warmer (1-1.8°C) summers compared to present SST record. One shell captured a year without a summer likely resulting from an eruption of the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. The reconstructed temperatures from the Roman Warm Period limpets showed colder winters (up to 2°C) and similar summers compared with present SST record. Our findings represent the first insights of SST variability at seasonal time scales for these two climate episodes in northwest Scotland.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

The 5-day wave and ionospheric absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fraser, G. J.

1977-01-01

In a previous paper, Fraser and Thorpe (1976) indicated that the average partial-coherence spectra for three summers and the average for three winters at a southern mid-latitude site had a dominant peak at a period of about six days. This peak in coherence between absorption and temperature is anomalous, and the present paper explains how some of the unexpected coherence features can be explained by the five-day wave described by Geisler and Dickinson (1976) and whose existence in the upper stratosphere was discussed by Rodgers (1976).

Processes affecting the movement of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) between soil and air in an industrial site in Turkey.

PubMed

Bozlaker, Ayse; Muezzinoglu, Aysen; Odabasi, Mustafa

2009-11-01

Soil and atmospheric concentrations, dry deposition and soil-air gas exchange of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were investigated at an industrial site in Aliaga, Izmir, Turkey. Current-use pesticides, endosulfan and chlorpyrifos, had the highest atmospheric levels in summer and winter. Summertime total (gas+particle) OCP concentrations in air were higher, probably due to increased volatilization at higher temperatures and seasonal local/regional applications of current-use pesticides. Particle deposition fluxes were generally higher in summer than in winter. Overall average dry particle deposition velocity for all the OCPs was 4.9+/-4.1 cm s(-1) (average+/-SD). SigmaDDXs (sum of p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, and p,p'-DDE) were the most abundant OCPs in Aliaga soils (n=48), probably due to their heavy historical use and persistence. Calculated fugacity ratios and average net gas fluxes across the soil-air interface indicated volatilization for alpha-CHL, gamma-CHL, heptachlorepoxide, cis-nonachlor, trans-nonachlor, and p,p'-DDT in summer, and for alpha-CHL, gamma-CHL, trans-nonachlor, endosulfan sulfate, and p,p'-DDT in winter. For the remaining OCPs, soil acted as a sink during both seasons. Comparison of the determined fluxes showed that dry particle, gas-phase, and wet deposition are significant OCP input mechanisms to the soil in the study area.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore; Johnson, Helen L.; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2017-06-01

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981-2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.

External tank chill effect on the space transportation system launch pad environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, R. A.; Boraas, S.

1991-01-01

The external tank (ET) of the STS contains liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen as oxidizer and fuel for the SSMEs. Once the cryogen have been loaded into the ET, the temperature of the air surrounding the STS is chilled by the cold outer surface of the ET. This paper describes a two-dimensional flow and thermal analysis to determine this chill effect on the STS launch pad environment subsequent to the ET loading operation. The analysis was done assuming winter conditions and a northwest wind direction. An existing CFD code, PHOENICS '81, was used in the study. The results are presented as local and average values of the heat transfer coefficient, the Nusselt number, and the surface temperature around the redesigned solid rocket motors (RSRMs) and the ET. The temperature depression caused by the ET chilling of the air in the vicinity of the RSRMs was calculated to be 3 F below the ambient. This compares with the observed 1-2 F RSRM surface temperature depression based upon measurements made prior to the winter flight of STS-29. Since the surface temperature would be expected to be slightly higher than the local air temperature, the predicted temperature depression of the air appears to be substantiated.

Warmer is healthier: effects on mortality rates of changes in average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and temperatures in 100 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Cox, Louis A; Popken, Douglas A; Ricci, Paolo F

2013-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that reducing particulate pollution would substantially reduce average daily mortality rates, prolonging lives, especially among the elderly (age ≥ 75). These benefits are projected by statistical models of significant positive associations between levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and daily mortality rates. We examine the empirical correspondence between changes in average PM2.5 levels and temperatures from 1999 to 2000, and corresponding changes in average daily mortality rates, in each of 100 U.S. cities in the National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) data base, which has extensive PM2.5, temperature, and mortality data for those 2 years. Increases in average daily temperatures appear to significantly reduce average daily mortality rates, as expected from previous research. Unexpectedly, reductions in PM2.5 do not appear to cause any reductions in mortality rates. PM2.5 and mortality rates are both elevated on cold winter days, creating a significant positive statistical relation between their levels, but we find no evidence that reductions in PM2.5 concentrations cause reductions in mortality rates. For all concerned, it is crucial to use causal relations, rather than statistical associations, to project the changes in human health risks due to interventions such as reductions in particulate air pollution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dry deposition and soil-air gas exchange of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in an industrial area.

PubMed

Bozlaker, Ayse; Odabasi, Mustafa; Muezzinoglu, Aysen

2008-12-01

Ambient air and dry deposition, and soil samples were collected at the Aliaga industrial site in Izmir, Turkey. Atmospheric total (particle+gas) Sigma(41)-PCB concentrations were higher in summer (3370+/-1617 pg m(-3), average+SD) than in winter (1164+/-618 pg m(-3)), probably due to increased volatilization with temperature. Average particulate Sigma(41)-PCBs dry deposition fluxes were 349+/-183 and 469+/-328 ng m(-2) day(-1) in summer and winter, respectively. Overall average particulate deposition velocity was 5.5+/-3.5 cm s(-1). The spatial distribution of Sigma(41)-PCB soil concentrations (n=48) showed that the iron-steel plants, ship dismantling facilities, refinery and petrochemicals complex are the major sources in the area. Calculated air-soil exchange fluxes indicated that the contaminated soil is a secondary source to the atmosphere for lighter PCBs and as a sink for heavier ones. Comparable magnitude of gas exchange and dry particle deposition fluxes indicated that both mechanisms are equally important for PCB movement between air and soil in Aliaga.

Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT.

PubMed

Wang, Yu; Bian, Jianmin; Zhao, Yongsheng; Tang, Jie; Jia, Zhuo

2018-02-05

The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.

Dynamics of Weight Change and Temperature of Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Colonies in a Wintering Building With Controlled Temperature.

PubMed

Stalidzans, E; Zacepins, A; Kviesis, A; Brusbardis, V; Meitalovs, J; Paura, L; Bulipopa, N; Liepniece, M

2017-02-01

Honey bee wintering in a wintering building (indoors) with controlled microclimate is used in some cold regions to minimize colony losses due to the hard weather conditions. The behavior and possible state of bee colonies in a dark room, isolated from natural environment during winter season, was studied by indirect temperature measurements to analyze the expression of their annual rhythm when it is not affected by ambient temperature, rain, snow, wind, and daylight. Thus, the observed behavior in the wintering building is initiated solely by bee colony internal processes. Experiments were carried out to determine the dynamics of temperature above the upper hive body and weight dynamics of indoors and outdoors wintered honey bee colonies and their brood-rearing performance in spring. We found significantly lower honey consumption-related weight loss of indoor wintered colonies compared with outdoor colonies, while no significant difference in the amount of open or sealed brood was found, suggesting that wintering building saves food and physiological resources without an impact on colony activity in spring. Indoor wintered colonies, with or without thermal insulation, did not have significant differences in food consumption and brood rearing in spring. The thermal behavior and weight dynamics of all experimental groups has changed in the middle of February possibly due to increased brood-rearing activity. Temperature measurement above the upper hive body is a convenient remote monitoring method of wintering process. Predictability of food consumption in a wintering building, with constant temperature, enables wintering without oversupply of wintering honey. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

Food Crops Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Tracer-Based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Jost, Hans-Juerg; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James R.; Hurst, Dale F.; Elkins, James W.; Schauffler, Sue M.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Herman, Robert L.; Webster, Christopher R.

2001-01-01

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999-2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for November 26, 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude, extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences, we inferred descent prior to November 26: 397+/-15 K (1sigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and 28+/-13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from November 26 through March 12, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between November 26 and January 27: 0.82+/-0.20 K/day averaged over 50-250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (February 26-March 12), the average rate had decreased to 0.10+/-0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (November 26-March 5) descent rate varied from 0.75+/-0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40+/-0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999-2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Impact of climate change on mercury concentrations and deposition in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Megaritis, Athanasios G; Murphy, Benjamin N; Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J; Pandis, Spyros N

2014-07-15

The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) was applied over the eastern United States to study the impact of climate change on the concentration and deposition of atmospheric mercury. Summer and winter periods (300 days for each) were simulated, and the present-day model predictions (2000s) were compared to the future ones (2050s) assuming constant emissions. Climate change affects Hg(2+) concentrations in both periods. On average, atmospheric Hg(2+) levels are predicted to increase in the future by 3% in summer and 5% in winter respectively due to enhanced oxidation of Hg(0) under higher temperatures. The predicted concentration change of Hg(2+) was found to vary significantly in space due to regional-scale changes in precipitation, ranging from -30% to 30% during summer and -20% to 40% during winter. Particulate mercury, Hg(p) has a similar spatial response to climate change as Hg(2+), while Hg(0) levels are not predicted to change significantly. In both periods, the response of mercury deposition to climate change varies spatially with an average predicted increase of 6% during summer and 4% during winter. During summer, deposition increases are predicted mostly in the western parts of the domain while mercury deposition is predicted to decrease in the Northeast and also in many areas in the Midwest and Southeast. During winter mercury deposition is predicted to change from -30% to 50% mainly due to the changes in rainfall and the corresponding changes in wet deposition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Body temperature change and outcomes in patients undergoing long-distance air medical transport.

PubMed

Nakajima, Mikio; Aso, Shotaro; Yasunaga, Hideo; Shirokawa, Masamitsu; Nakano, Tomotsugu; Miyakuni, Yasuhiko; Goto, Hideaki; Yamaguchi, Yoshihiro

2018-04-30

Short-distance air medical transport for adult emergency patients does not significantly affect patients' body temperature and outcomes. This study aimed to examine the influence of long-distance air medical transport on patients' body temperatures and the relationship between body temperature change and mortality. We retrospectively enrolled consecutive patients transferred via helicopter or plane from isolated islands to an emergency medical center in Tokyo, Japan between April 2010 and December 2016. Patients' average body temperature was compared before and after air transport using a paired t-test, and corrections between body temperature change and flight duration were calculated using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Multivariable logistic regression models were then used to examine the association between body temperature change and in-hospital mortality. Of 1253 patients, the median age was 72 years (interquartile range, 60-82 years) and median flight duration was 71 min (interquartile range, 54-93 min). In-hospital mortality was 8.5%, and average body temperature was significantly different before and after air transport (36.7 °C versus 36.3 °C; difference: -0.36 °C; 95% confidence interval, -0.30 to -0.42; p < 0.001). There was no correlation between body temperature change and flight duration (r = 0.025, p = 0.371). In-hospital death was significantly associated with (i) hyperthermia (>38.0 °C) or normothermia (36.0-37.9 °C) before air transport and hypothermia after air transport (odds ratio, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.63; p = 0.009), and (ii) winter season (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-4.27; p = 0.030). Physicians should consider body temperature change during long-distance air transport in patients with not only hypothermia but also normothermia or hyperthermia before air transport, especially in winter. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Thermal adaptiveness of plumage color in screech owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mosher, James A.; Henny, Charles J.

1976-01-01

Clinal variation in the relative proportions of red and gray plum- age phases in Screech Owls (Otus asio) was analyzed by Owen (1963) and Marshall (1967). This variation was well known prior to Owen's work, but was misinterpreted (Baird, et al. 1874, Hasbrouck 1893, Allen 1893).]Laurel VanCamp and Charles Henny (MS) have 30 years of data on a northern Ohio Screech Owl population. They observed an over- winter decline (from about 25% to 15%) in the proportion of red phase birds in the winter of 1951-52. This decline was correlated with a severe winter of above normal snowfall and below average temperatures. They examined banding and recovery data and found overwinter survival of red and gray birds to be the same except for this one severe winter when 44% more red phase birds were lost than grays (VanCamp and Henny MS). Differential mortality was reported by Gullion and Marshall (1968) for red and gray phase Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus) where snow conditions for roosting is apparently the critical factor for grouse overwinter survival and is related to predation. Snow- roosting has not, to our knowledge, been observed in Screech Owls. VanCamp and Henny (MS) discuss the observations of Ruffed Grouse and Screech Owls and suggest that possible thermoregulatory differences between red and gray phase birds could account for differential overwinter survival.Our objective was to test for differences between color phase in oxygen uptake at several ambient temperatures. We hypothesized that oxygen uptake would be greater by red phase birds, especially at lower temperatures.

Prominent November Coldwaves in the North Central United States Since 1901.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendland, Wayne M.

1987-06-01

The frequency and intensity of early winter (November) coldwaves were investigated for the north central United States. Twenty-two such storms occurred from 1901 to 1985, and were most frequent in the 1950s and early 1960s, and again from the mid 1970s to the present.November coldwaves are most often the result of Colorado cyclones moving to the cast northeast. On average, temperature declines of 22°C or more within 24 hours, falling to at least 0°C, impacted about 40 percent of the 12-state region. The storms were most often accompanied by strong winds, wind chill, heavy snow to the west, and thunderstorms to the cast, i.e., the trappings of a severe winter storm. Many of these storms inflicted severe damage on land and on the Great Lakes, sometimes taking lives of those not anticipating such a severe "winter" storm in November.

Exceptional Arctic warmth of early winter 2016 and attribution to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Macias-Fauria, Marc; King, Andrew; Uhe, Peter; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; Karoly, David; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2017-04-01

The dark polar winters usually sport the coldest extremes on Earth, however this winter, the North Pole and the surrounding Arctic region have experienced record high temperatures in November and December, with daily means reaching 15 °C (27 °F) above normal and a November monthly mean that was 13 °C (23 °F) above normal on the pole. November also saw a brief retreat of sea-ice that was virtually unprecedented in nearly 40 years of satellite records, followed by a record low in November sea ice area since 1850. Unlike the Antarctic, Arctic lands are inhabited and their socio-economic systems are greatly affected by the impacts of extreme and unprecedented sea ice dynamics and temperatures, such as for example, the timing of marine mammal migrations, and refreezing rain on snow that prevents reindeer from feeding. Here we report on our multi-method rapid attribution analysis of North Pole November-December temperatures. To quantify the rarity of the event, we computed the November-December averaged temperature around the North Pole (80-90 °N) in the (short but North-pole covering) ERA-interim reanalysis. To put the event in context of natural variability, we use a longer and closely related time series based on the northern most meteorological observations on land (70-80 °N). This allows for a reconstruction of Arctic temperatures back to about 1900. We also perform a multi-method analysis of North Pole temperatures with two sets of climate models: the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, and a large ensemble of model runs in the so-called Weather@Home project. Physical mechanisms that are responsible for temperature and sea ice variability in the North Pole region are also discussed. The observations and the bias-corrected CMIP5 ensemble point to a return period of about 50 to 200 years in the present climate, i.e., the probability of such an extreme is about 0.5% to 2% every year, with a large uncertainty. The observations show that November-December temperatures have risen on the North Pole, modulated by decadal North Atlantic variability. For all phases of this variability, a warm event like the one of this winter would have been extremely unlikely in the climate of a century ago. Both sets of models also give very comparable results and show that the bulk of the arctic temperature increase is due to anthropogenic emissions. This also holds for the warm extremes caused by the type of circulation present in the early winter of 2016.

IMS study of climate, altitude, temperature and vasomotor symptoms in the United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

Stefanopoulou, E; Gupta, P; Mostafa, R Mohamed; Nosair, N; Mirghani, Z; Moustafa, K; Al Kusayer, G; Sturdee, D W; Hunter, M S

2014-08-01

To examine the relationships between temperature, season (summer versus winter), lifestyle, health, mood, beliefs, and experience of hot flushes and night sweats (HFNS), amongst mid-aged women living in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE climate is hyper-arid, being a hot desert climate, with warm winters and hot summers. A total of 372 peri- and postmenopausal women, aged from 45 to 55 years, from urban UAE regions were included. Data were collected during both summer and winter months. Participants completed questionnaires eliciting information about sociodemographics, HFNS (prevalence, frequency and problem-rating), health and lifestyle (body mass index (BMI), diet, exercise), mood (Women's Health Questionnaire) and menopause attributions and beliefs (Menopause Representations Questionnaire). HFNS were currently being experienced by 46.5% of women, with an average weekly frequency of five and problem-rating of 5.7/10. Seasonal variation in temperature was not associated with prevalence, frequency or problem-rating. Hot flush prevalence was associated with poor health, life satisfaction, mood, employment, lower BMI and diet. Higher frequency was associated with higher BMI and more years since the last period. HFNS were more problematic mainly for women who reported lower life satisfaction and held more negative beliefs about the menopause. In this UAE study, temperature and seasonal temperature variation did not appear to influence HFNS-reporting, but health, life satisfaction, BMI, beliefs and lifestyle factors partially explained women's experiences of menopausal symptoms. A qualitative study might provide further information about the meanings of HFNS and menopause amongst UAE women.

Skill of real-time operational forecasts with the APCC multi-model ensemble prediction system during the period 2008-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Young-Mi; Kryjov, Vladimir N.; Oh, Sang Myeong; Lee, Hyun-Ju

2017-12-01

This paper assesses the real-time 1-month lead forecasts of 3-month (seasonal) mean temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis issued by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) for 2008-2015 (8 years, 96 forecasts). It shows the current level of the APCC operational multi-model prediction system performance. The skill of the APCC forecasts strongly depends on seasons and regions that it is higher for the tropics and boreal winter than for the extratropics and boreal summer due to direct effects and remote teleconnections from boundary forcings. There is a negative relationship between the forecast skill and its interseasonal variability for both variables and the forecast skill for precipitation is more seasonally and regionally dependent than that for temperature. The APCC operational probabilistic forecasts during this period show a cold bias (underforecasting of above-normal temperature and overforecasting of below-normal temperature) underestimating a long-term warming trend. A wet bias is evident for precipitation, particularly in the extratropical regions. The skill of both temperature and precipitation forecasts strongly depends upon the ENSO strength. Particularly, the highest forecast skill noted in 2015/2016 boreal winter is associated with the strong forcing of an extreme El Nino event. Meanwhile, the relatively low skill is associated with the transition and/or continuous ENSO-neutral phases of 2012-2014. As a result the skill of real-time forecast for boreal winter season is higher than that of hindcast. However, on average, the level of forecast skill during the period 2008-2015 is similar to that of hindcast.

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part II: seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 2503-2518, 2008. Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, and N. Rimbu, Prediction of spring Elbe river discharge based on stable teleconnections with global temperature and precipitation. J. Climate. 6215-6226, 2008.

The extent and pathways of nitrogen loss in turfgrass systems: Age impacts.

PubMed

Chen, Huaihai; Yang, Tianyou; Xia, Qing; Bowman, Daniel; Williams, David; Walker, John T; Shi, Wei

2018-05-11

Nitrogen loss from fertilized turf has been a concern for decades, with most research focused on inorganic (NO 3 - ) leaching. The present work examined both inorganic and organic N species in leachate and soil N 2 O emissions from intact soil cores of a bermudagrass chronosequence (1, 15, 20, and 109 years old) collected in both winter and summer. Measurements of soil N 2 O emissions were made daily for 3 weeks, while leachate was sampled once a week. Four treatments were established to examine the impacts of fertilization and temperature: no N, low N at 30 kg N ha -1 , and high N at 60 kg N ha -1 , plus a combination of high N and temperature (13 °C in winter or 33 °C in summer compared to the standard 23 °C). Total reactive N loss generally showed a "cup" pattern of turf age, being lowest for the 20 years old. Averaged across all intact soil cores sampled in winter and summer, organic N leaching accounted for 51% of total reactive N loss, followed by inorganic N leaching at 41% and N 2 O-N efflux at 8%. Proportional loss among the fractions varied with grass age, season, and temperature and fertilization treatments. While high temperature enhanced total reactive N loss, it had little influence on the partitioning of loss among dissolved organic N, inorganic N and N 2 O-N when C availability was expected to be high in summer due to rhizodeposition and root turnover. This effect of temperature was perhaps due to higher microbial turnover in response to increased C availability in summer. However when C availability was low in winter, warming might mainly affect microbial growth efficiency and therefore partitioning of N. This work provides a new insight into the interactive controls of warming and substrate availability on dissolved organic N loss from turfgrass systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal Properties and Energy Fluxes in Pre-monsoon Season of 2016 at the Ponkar Debris-Covered Glacier, Manang, Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, M. B.; Kayastha, R. B.; Armstrong, R. L.

2016-12-01

Himalayan glaciers are characterized by the presence of extensive debris cover in ablation areas. It is essential to understand the thermal properties and assess the effect of debris in glacier ice melt rate in debris-covered glaciers. Meteorological conditions are recorded on the lower ablation zone of the debris-covered Ponkar Glacier, Bhimthang, Manang, Nepal during pre-monsoon season of 2016. Debris temperature at different depths is monitored for winter and pre-monsoon season to estimate the effective heat conduction. Similarly, melt under the debris is also measured for pre-monsoon season. The incoming and outgoing shortwave radiations are measured at 2 m above the surface and other variables including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are used to estimate surface energy balance. Energy flux is dominated by net shortwave radiation as the foremost source of melting, where contribution of net longwave radiation, sensible, latent, and conductive heat flux is low. The daily average temperature gradients of the debris layer from surface to 30 cm below for winter and pre-monsoon seasons are 0.04 oC cm-1 and 0.23 oC cm-1, respectively. Debris thermal conductivities are 0.30 W m-1 K-1 and 1.69 W m-1 K-1 for the winter and pre-monsoon season, respectively. The higher value of conductivity during pre-monsoon season is due to the higher air temperature and increased precipitation compared to the winter months. The daily mean measured ice melt under a debris layer of 11-20 cm ranges from 0.6 to 1.1 cm. Estimation of melt at a few points can be used to estimate the general melting pattern for the glacier surface, which can be improved by using the spatial distribution of debris thickness and surface temperature.

Fluorescence measurements show stronger cold inhibition of photosynthetic light reactions in Scots pine compared to Norway spruce as well as during spring compared to autumn.

PubMed

Linkosalo, Tapio; Heikkinen, Juha; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Mäkipää, Raisa

2014-01-01

We studied the photosynthetic activity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst) in relation to air temperature changes from March 2013 to February 2014. We measured the chlorophyll fluorescence of approximately 50 trees of each species growing in southern Finland. Fluorescence was measured 1-3 times per week. We began by measuring shoots present in late winter (i.e., March 2013) before including new shoots once they started to elongate in spring. By July, when the spring shoots had achieved similar fluorescence levels to the older ones, we proceeded to measure the new shoots only. We analyzed the data by fitting a sigmoidal model containing four parameters to link sliding averages of temperature and fluorescence. A parameter defining the temperature range over which predicted fluorescence increased most rapidly was the most informative with in describing temperature dependence of fluorescence. The model generated similar fluorescence patterns for both species, but differences were observed for critical temperature and needle age. Down regulation of the light reaction was stronger in spring than in autumn. Pine showed more conservative control of the photosynthetic light reactions, which were activated later in spring and more readily attenuated in autumn. Under the assumption of a close correlation of fluorescence and photosynthesis, spruce should therefore benefit more than pine from the increased photosynthetic potential during warmer springs, but be more likely to suffer frost damage with a sudden cooling following a warm period. The winter of 2013-2014 was unusually mild and similar to future conditions predicted by global climate models. During the mild winter, the activity of photosynthetic light reactions of both conifers, especially spruce, remained high. Because light levels during winter are too low for photosynthesis, this activity may translate to a net carbon loss due to respiration.

Contrasting Response of Carbon Fluxes to Winter Warming across Land Cover Types in Southern NH, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders-DeMott, R.; Ouimette, A.; Lepine, L. C.; Fogarty, S.; Burakowski, E. A.; Contosta, A.; Ollinger, S. V.; Conte, T.

2017-12-01

Natural and managed ecosystems play a key role in climate through regulation of carbon dioxide, as well as their effects on other greenhouse gases, surface heat fluxes, and albedo. In the northeastern United States, winter air temperatures are rising more rapidly than mean annual temperatures and the depth and duration of seasonal snowpack is decreasing. Although winter fluxes of carbon are small relative to the growing season, there is mounting evidence that biological processes in winter contribute significantly to annual ecosystem carbon budgets and that changes in winter conditions could lead to shifting patterns and magnitudes of seasonal carbon uptake. To determine the response of differing land cover types to variation in winter conditions we used eddy covariance to monitor carbon exchange from a co-located mixed temperate forest and a managed grassland in Durham, NH from 2014-2017, which included an anomalous warm winter (air temperatures 3°C warmer than 14-year mean) with low snowpack in 2016. We examined cumulative winter and spring net ecosystem exchange, as well as the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to air and soil temperatures in the presence and absence of a deep (>15 cm) snowpack. We found that warm winter temperatures and low snow conditions led to relatively large cumulative losses of carbon from the forest in February/March 2016, while the grassland was a moderate net sink for carbon during the same period. When temperatures were above 0°C, mid-day carbon uptake in the grassland was controlled by the presence or absence of snow cover. Our results suggest that forest carbon losses to the atmosphere in deciduous forests may increase during warm, snow-free winter conditions when vegetation is restricted in winter carbon uptake capacity by phenology. However, non-forested vegetation such as perennial grasses have a greater potential to activate photosynthesis in winter and to take up carbon in the "dormant season," perhaps moderating increasing winter carbon losses due to increasing winter temperatures.

Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year

DOE PAGES

Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Mitchell, Lewis; Reagan, Andrew J.; ...

2016-05-11

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyze daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice.more » We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.« less

Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C; Rajkovich, Nicholas B; White-Newsome, Jalonne L; Larsen, Larissa; Neill, Marie S O

2011-01-01

Winter weather patterns are anticipated to become more variable with increasing average global temperatures. Research shows that excess morbidity and mortality occurs during cold weather periods. We critically reviewed evidence relating temperature variability, health outcomes, and adaptation strategies to cold weather. Health outcomes included cardiovascular-, respiratory-, cerebrovascular-, and all-cause morbidity and mortality. Individual and contextual risk factors were assessed to highlight associations between individual- and neighborhood- level characteristics that contribute to a person’s vulnerability to variability in cold weather events. Epidemiologic studies indicate that the populations most vulnerable to variations in cold winter weather are the elderly, rural and, generally, populations living in moderate winter climates. Fortunately, cold-related morbidity and mortality are preventable and strategies exist for protecting populations from these adverse health outcomes. We present a range of adaptation strategies that can be implemented at the individual, building, and neighborhood level to protect vulnerable populations from cold-related morbidity and mortality. The existing research justifies the need for increased outreach to individuals and communities for education on protective adaptations in cold weather. We propose that future climate change adaptation research couple building energy and thermal comfort models with epidemiological data to evaluate and quantify the impacts of adaptation strategies. PMID:21592693

[Analysis on concentration variety characteristics of atmospheric ozone under the boundary layer in Beijing].

PubMed

Zong, Xue-Mei; Wang, Geng-Chen; Chen, Hong-Bin; Wang, Pu-Cai; Xuan, Yue-Jian

2007-11-01

Based on the atmospheric ozone sounding data, the average monthly and seasonal variety principles of atmospheric ozone concentration during six years are analyzed under the boundary layer in Beijing. The results show that the monthly variation of atmospheric ozone are obvious that the minimum values appear in January from less than 10 x 10(-9) on ground to less than 50 x 10(-9) on upper layer (2 km), but the maximum values appear in June from 85 x 10(-9) on ground to more than 90 x 10(-9) on upper layer. The seasonal variation is also clear that the least atmospheric ozone concentration is in winter and the most is in summer, but variety from ground to upper layer is largest in winter and least in summer. According to the type of outline, the outline of ozone concentration is composite of three types which are winter type, summer type and spring-autumn type. The monthly ozone concentration in different heights is quite different. After analyzing the relationship between ozone concentration and meteorological factors, such as temperature and humidity, we find ozone concentration on ground is linear with temperature and the correlation coefficient is more than 85 percent.

Measurements of IN and BIO-IN with the fast ice nucleus chamber FINCH at Mt. Zugspitze, Mt. Puy de Dôme and Jungfraujoch during fall and winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nillius, B.; Frank, F.; Bingemer, H.; Curtius, J.; Bundke, U.

2013-05-01

In this work we present IN measurements at Mt. Zugspitze, Germany, 2650 m.a.s.l., Mt. Puy de Dôme, France, 1464 m.a.s.l. and Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, 3580 m a.s.l during fall and winter 2012 with the instrument FINCH HALO (Fast Ice Nucleus Chamber for the High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft HALO). In this device the temperature and super saturation for activation of Ice Nuclei (IN) and the growth to ice crystals is obtained by mixing three gas flows of different temperatures and moisture. After the growth of IN and Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) to macroscopic ice crystals and super-cooled water droplets in the development chamber, they are counted using an optical detector. The discrimination between ice and water is made by measuring the circular depolarization ratio of the backscattered laser light of each individual particle. IN are classified as biological particles by measuring their individual intrinsic-fluorescence during the winter campaigns in average 30-40 % of the IN show an intrinsic fluorescence and are supposed to be of biological origin.

Sensitivity of Great Lakes Ice Cover to Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, J. A.; Titze, D.

2016-12-01

Ice cover is shown to exhibit a strong linear sensitivity to air temperature. Upwards of 70% of ice cover variability on all of the Great Lakes can be explained in terms of air temperature, alone, and nearly 90% of ice cover variability can be explained in some lakes. Ice cover sensitivity to air temperature is high, and a difference in seasonally-averaged (Dec-May) air temperature on the order of 1°C to 2°C can be the difference between a low-ice year and a moderate- to high- ice year. The total amount of seasonal ice cover is most influenced by air temperatures during the meteorological winter, contemporaneous with the time of ice formation. Air temperature conditions during the pre-winter conditioning period and during the spring melting period were found to have less of an impact on seasonal ice cover. This is likely due to the fact that there is a negative feedback mechanism when heat loss goes toward cooling the lake, but a positive feedback mechanism when heat loss goes toward ice formation. Ice cover sensitivity relationships were compared between shallow coastal regions of the Great Lakes and similarly shallow smaller, inland lakes. It was found that the sensitivity to air temperature is similar between these coastal regions and smaller lakes, but that the absolute amount of ice that forms varies significantly between small lakes and the Great Lakes, and amongst the Great Lakes themselves. The Lake Superior application of the ROMS three-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model verifies a deterministic linear relationship between air temperature and ice cover, which is also strongest around the period of ice formation. When the Lake Superior bathymetry is experimentally adjusted by a constant vertical multiplier, average lake depth is shown to have a nonlinear relationship with seasonal ice cover, and this nonlinearity may be associated with a nonlinear increase in the lake-wide volume of the surface mixed layer.

Monthly variations of dew point temperature in the coterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Peter J.

1998-11-01

The dew point temperature, Td, data from the surface airways data set of the U.S. National Climatic Data Center were used to develop a basic dew point climatology for the coterminous United States. Quality control procedures were an integral part of the analysis. Daily Td, derived as the average of eight observations at 3-hourly intervals, for 222 stations for the 1961-1990 period were used. The annual and seasonal pattern of average values showed a clear south-north decrease in the eastern portion of the nation, a trend which was most marked in winter. In the west, values decreased inland from the Pacific Coast. Inter-annual variability was generally low when actual mean values were high. A cluster analysis suggested that the area could be divided into six regions, two oriented north-south in the west, four aligned east-west in the area east of the Rocky Mountains. Day-to-day variability was low in all seasons in the two western clusters, but showed a distinct winter maximum in the east. This was explained in broad terms by consideration of air flow regimes, with the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico acting as the major moisture sources. Comparison of values for pairs of nearby stations suggested that Td was rather insensitive to local moisture sources. Analysis of the patterns of occurrence of dew points exceeding the 95th percentile threshold indicated that extremes in summer tend to be localized and short-lived, while in winter they are more widespread and persistent.

Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

2016-04-01

The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number of cold nights, cold days, ice days and consecutive frost days over the western part of Europe. In the opposite case of low sea ice concentration over the Barents/Kara Seas an increase of up to 8 days/winter of cold nights and days is observed over the whole Europe and an increase of up to 4 days/winter in the number of ID and CFD is observed over the same regions. The cold winters over Europe (low sea ice years) are associated with anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough, which in turn favours the advection of cold air from the north, providing favourable conditions for severe winters over Europe. We suggest that these results can help to improve the seasonal predictions of winter extreme events over Europe. Due to the non-linear response to high vs. low sea ice years, the skill of the predictions might depend on the sign and amplitude of the anomalies.

How the food supply harvestable by waders in the Wadden Sea depends on the variation in energy density, body weight, biomass, burying depth and behaviour of tidal-flat invertebrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwarts, Leo; Wanink, Jan H.

For several reasons, waders in the Wadden Sea face a large seasonal and annual variation in their food supply. Observations on a tidal flat in the Dutch Wadden Sea have shown that: - (1) The average energy density of ten invertebrate prey species varies between 21 and 23 kJ·g -1 AFDW. In Scrobicularia plana and Mya arenaria, but not in Macoma balthica, the energy density is 10% lower in winter than in summer. - (2) Depending on the species, body weights of prey of similar size are 30 to 60% lower in winter than in summer. - (3) The year-to-year fluctuation in standing-crop biomass is larger in some species than in others, the difference depending mainly on the frequency of successful recruitment. The overall biomass of the macrobenthos in winter is half of that in summer, but the timing of the peak biomass differs per species. - (4) The burying depth varies per species: Cerastoderma edule live just beneath the surface, while M. balthica, S. plana, M. arenaria, Arenicola marina and Nereis diversicolor bury more deeply and the majority of these prey live out of reach of the bird's bill. In all six species, burying depth increases with size. There is no seasonal variation in depth of C. edule and M. arenaria, but the four other species live at most shallow depth in early summer and most deeply in midwinter. Burying depths in winter vary from year to year, but are unrelated to temperature. Neither has temperature any effect on depth within months. For knot Calidris canutus feeding on M. balthica, the fluctuation in the accessible fraction was the main source of variation in the biomass of prey that is actually harvestable, i.e. the biomass of prey of suitable size that is accessible. Accordingly, the paper reviews the available data on the temporal variations in accessibility, detectability, ingestibility, digestibility and profitability of prey for waders. Only a small part of the prey is harvestable since many accessible prey are ignored because of their low profitability, while many profitable prey are inaccessible. The profitability of prey depends on their size and weight but also on their depth in the mud, since handling time increases with burying depth. A simple biomechanical rule explains why the handling time of small prey increases with bill length and why large, long-billed waders ignore a disproportionately larger part of the small prey. The fraction detectable for visually feeding waders is usually very low, especially when the temperature of the substrate is below 3-6°C. Waders vary their prey choice over the year in response to the changes in the availability and profitability of their different prey species. The food supply harvestable by waders is much lower in winter than in summer. For waders wintering in the Wadden Sea, the food supply may be characterized as unpredictable and usually meagre. Waders wintering in NW Europe are concentrated in coastal sites where the average surface temperature is above 3°C. This probably cannot be explained by a greater burying depth, and only partly by a lower body condition, of prey in colder areas. Yet the harvestable fraction is lower in colder sites, especially for sight-feeding waders, as invertebrates are less active at low temperatures. However, the lower energetic cost of living and reduced chances of the prey being covered by ice may also contribute to the waders' preference for warmer sites.

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

Climatic significance of the ostracode fauna from the Pliocene Kap Kobenhavn Formation, north Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brouwers, E.M.; Jorgensen, N.O.; Cronin, T. M.

1991-01-01

The Kap Kobenhavn Formation crops out in Greenland at 80??N latitude and marks the most northerly onshore Pliocene locality known. The sands and silts that comprise the formation were deposited in marginal marine and shallow marine environments. An abundant and diverse vertebrate and invertebrate fauna and plant megafossil flora provide age and paleoclimatic constraints. The age estimated for the Kap Kobenhavn ranges from 2.0 to 3.0 million years old. Winter and summer bottom water paleotemperatures were estimated on the basis of the ostracode assemblages. The marine ostracode fauna in units B1 and B2 indicate a subfrigid to frigid marine climate, with estimated minimum sea bottom temperatures (SBT) of -2??C and estimated maximum SBT of 6-8??C. Sediments assigned to unit B2 at locality 72 contain a higher proportion of warm water genera, and the maximum SBT is estimated at 9-10??C. The marginal marine fauna in the uppermost unit B3 (locality 68) indicates a cold temperate to subfrigid marine climate, with an estimated minimum SBT of -2??C and an estimated maximum SBT ranging as high as 12-14??C. These temperatures indicated that, on the average, the Kap Kobenhavn winters in the late Pliocene were similar to or perhaps 1-2??C warmer than winters today and that summer temperatures were 7-8??C warmer than today. -from Authors

The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

2018-01-18

Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C exchange. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

2011-10-01

Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B.

2016-01-01

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air–sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline. PMID:26975331

Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camenisch, C.

2015-08-01

This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.

Quasi-biennial modulation of planetary-wave fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunkerton, Timothy J.; Baldwin, Mark P.

1991-01-01

Using 25 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data for 1964-88 the relation between tropical and extratropical quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) was examined for zonally averaged quantities and planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The extratropical QBO discussed by Holton and Tan (1980) existed in both temporal halves of the dataset. Autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that it was an important mode of interannual variability in the extratropical winter stratosphere. Correlation with the tropics was strongest when 40-mb equatorial winds were used to define the tropical QBO. Easterly phase at 40 mb implied a weaker than normal polar night jet and warmer than normal polar temperature and vice versa. An opposite relationship was obtained using 10-mb equatorial winds. The association between tropical and extratropical QBOs was observed in about 90 percent of the winters and was statistically significant. It is shown that planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes were generally consistent with the extratropical QBO. These fluxes were more (less) convergent in the midlatitude (subtropical) upper stratosphere in the 40-mb east (= easterly) phase category relative to the west category.

Cool seasons are related to poor prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Su-Jung; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Hsu, Tsui-Lieh; Yu, Wen-Chung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Chen, Shih-Ann

2012-09-01

Many cardiac diseases demonstrate seasonal variations in the incidence and mortality. This study was designed to investigate whether the mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) was higher in cool seasons and to evaluate the effects of cool climate for IE. We enrolled 100 IE patients with vegetations in our hospital. The temperatures of the IE episodes were defined as the monthly average temperatures of the admission days. The average temperatures in the cool (fall/winter) and warm seasons (spring/summer) were 19.2°C and 27.6°C, respectively. In addition, patients admitted with the diagnosis of IE were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and the in-hospital mortality rates in cool and warm seasons were compared to validate the findings derived from the data of our hospital. The mortality rate for IE was significantly higher in fall/winter than in spring/summer which presents consistently in the patient population of our hospital (32.7% versus 12.5%, p = 0.017) and from NHIRD (10.4% versus 4.6%, p = 0.019). IE episodes which occurred during cool seasons presented with a higher rate of heart failure (44.2% versus 22.9%, p = 0.025) and D-dimer level (5.5 ± 3.8 versus 2.4 ± 1.8 μg/ml, p = 0.017) at admission than that of warm seasons. These results may reflect the impact of temperatures during the pre-hospitalized period on the disease process. In the multivariate analysis, Staphylococcal infection, left ventricular hypertrophy, left ventricular systolic dysfunction and temperature were the independent predictors of mortalities in IE patients.

Seasonal, Oceanographic and Atmospheric Drivers of Diving Behaviour in a Temperate Seal Species Living in the High Arctic

PubMed Central

Blanchet, Marie-Anne; Lydersen, Christian; Ims, Rolf A.; Kovacs, Kit M.

2015-01-01

The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population in Svalbard marks the northernmost limit of the species’ range. This small population experiences environmental extremes in sea and air temperatures, sea ice cover and also in light regime for this normally temperate species. This study deployed Conductivity Temperature Depth Satellite Relay Data Loggers (CTD-SRDLs) on 30 adult and juvenile harbour seals in 2009 and 2010 to study their foraging behaviour across multiple seasons. A total of 189,104 dives and 16,640 CTD casts (mean depth 72 m ± 59) were recorded. Individuals dove to a mean depth of 41 m ± 24 with a maximum dive depth range of 24 – 403 m. Dives lasted on average 204 sec ± 120 with maximum durations ranging between 240 – 2,220 sec. Average daily depth and duration of dives, number of dives, time spent diving and dive time/surface time were influenced by date, while sex, age, sea-ice concentration and their interactions were not particularly influential. Dives were deeper (~150 m), longer (~480 sec), less numerous (~250 dives/day) and more pelagic during the winter/early spring compared to the fall and animals spent proportionally less time at the bottom of their dives during the winter. Influxes of warm saline water, corresponding to Atlantic Water characteristics, were observed intermittently at depths ~100 m during both winters in this study. The seasonal changes in diving behaviour were linked to average weekly wind stresses from the north or north-east, which induced upwelling events onto the shelf through offshore Ekman transport. During these events the shelf became flooded with AW from the West Spitsbergen Current, which presumably brought Atlantic fish species close to shore and within the seals’ foraging depth-range. Predicted increased in the influx of AW in this region are likely going to favour the growth and geographic expansion of this harbour seal population in the future. PMID:26196289

Seasonal Snow Extent and Snow Volume in South America Using SSM/I Passive Microwave Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, James L.; Chang, A. T. C.; Hall, D. K.; Kelly, R.; Houser, Paul (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Seasonal snow cover in South America was examined in this study using passive microwave satellite data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/I) on board Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. For the period from 1992-1998, both snow cover extent and snow depth (snow mass) were investigated during the winter months (May-August) in the Patagonia region of Argentina. Since above normal temperatures in this region are typically above freezing, the coldest winter month was found to be not only the month having the most extensive snow cover but also the month having the deepest snows. For the seven-year period of this study, the average snow cover extent (May-August) was about 0.46 million sq km and the average monthly snow mass was about 1.18 x 10(exp 13) kg. July 1992 was the month having the greatest snow extent (nearly 0.8 million sq km) and snow mass (approximately 2.6 x 10(exp 13) kg).

The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Hazel E.; Scaife, Adam A.; Hoskins, Brian J.; Brayshaw, David J.

2017-06-01

Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between low and high demand. However, during the highest demand average wind power increases again, due to strengthening easterly winds. The nature of the weather patterns affecting Great Britain are responsible for this relationship. High demand is driven by a range of high pressure weather types, each giving cold conditions, but variable wind power availability. Offshore wind power is sustained at higher levels and offers a more secure supply compared to that onshore. However, during high demand periods in Great Britain neighbouring countries may struggle to provide additional capacity due to concurrent low temperatures and low wind power availability.

Effect of climate-ocean changes on the abundance of Pacific saury.

PubMed

Gong, Yeong; Suh, Young Sang

2013-01-01

Effects of ocean climate changes on the population structure and abundance of Pacific saury (Cololabis sira) were investigated on the basis of climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, catch and body size information from the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region (Yellow Sea, East China Sea and East/Japan Sea) during the period 1950-2010. It is suggested that oceanic regime shifts in the early 1970s, late 1980s and late 1990s occurred in the TWC region in winter, but the regime shifts in the mid-1970s and in the late 1980s were not evident in the spring SST anomaly series. The abundance and body size of Pacific saury fluctuated in association with the winter oceanic changes in the TWC region. The catch rates and abundance of large size saury were far bellow average during their northward migrations in the TWC region in the years with abnormally cool winters (e.g., 1963, 1970, 1977, 1981-1989 and 2006) and above average in the years with warm winters. These patterns demonstrate decadal-scale variations together with large inter-annual fluctuations in the structure and abundance of Pacific saury in association with the climatic-oceanic changes. These results, along with an alternation of dominant pelagic fish species, indicate the status of the saury population in the TWC region is in good condition, similar to that in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC) region during the warm regime after the late 1980s climate regime shift.

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather.

PubMed

MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E

2017-07-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental winter warming significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of West Indian manatees along the Atlantic coast of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deutsch, C.J.; Reid, J.P.; Bonde, R.K.; Easton, Dean E.; Kochman, H.I.; O'Shea, T.J.

2003-01-01

The West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) is endangered by human activities throughout its range, including the U.S. Atlantic coast where habitat degradation from coastal development and manatee deaths from watercraft collisions have been particularly severe. We radio-tagged and tracked 78 manatees along the east coast of Florida and Georgia over a 12-year period (1986-1998). Our goals were to characterize the seasonal movements, migratory behavior, and site fidelity of manatees in this region in order to provide information for the development of effective conservation strategies. Most study animals were tracked remotely with the Argos satellite system, which yielded a mean (SD) of 3.7 (1.6) locations per day; all were regularly tracked in the field using conventional radiotelemetry methods. The combined data collection effort yielded >93,000 locations over nearly 32,000 tag-days. The median duration of tracking was 8.3 months per individual, but numerous manatees were tracked over multiple years (max = 6.8 years). Most manatees migrated seasonally over large distances between a northerly warm-season range and a southerly winter range (median one-way distance = 280 km, max = 830 km), but 12% of individuals were resident in a relatively small area (2,300 km of coastline between southeastern Florida and Rhode Island. No study animals journeyed to the Gulf coast of Florida. Regions heavily utilized by tagged manatees included: Fernandina Beach, FL to Brunswick, GA in the warm season; northern Biscayne Bay to Port Everglades, FL in the winter; and central coastal Florida, especially the Banana River and northern Indian River lagoons, in all seasons. Daily travel rate, defined as the distance between successive mean daily locations, averaged 2.5 km (SD = 1.7), but this varied with season, migratory pattern, and sex. Adult males traveled a significantly greater distance per day than did adult females for most of the warm season, which corresponded closely with the principal period of breeding activity, but there was no difference between the sexes in daily travel rate during the winter. The timing of seasonal migrations differed markedly between geographic regions. Most long-distance movements in the southern half of the study area occurred between November and March in response to changing temperatures, whereas most migrations in the northern region took place during the warmer, non-winter months. Manatees left their warm-season range in central Florida in response to cold fronts that dropped water temperatures by an average of 2.0??C over the 24-hr period preceding departure. Water temperature at departure from the warm-season range averaged 19??C, but varied among individuals (16-22??C) and was not related to body size or female reproductive status. The presence of industrial warm-water effluents permitted many manatees to overwinter north of their historic winter range, and for some migrants this delayed autumn migrations and facilitated earlier spring migrations. Southward autumn and northward spring migrations lasted an average of 10 and 15 days at mean rates of 33.5 (SD = 7.6) and 27.3 (SD = 10.5) km/day, respectively. The highest rate of travel during migration was 87 km/day (3.6 km/hr) during winter. Manatees overwintering in southeastern Florida often traveled north during mild weather - sometimes reaching their warm-season range - only to return south again with the next major cold front. Manatees were consistent in their seasonal movement patterns across years and showed strong fidelity, to warm-season and winter ranges. Within a season, individuals usually occupied only 1 or 2 core use areas that encompassed about 90% of daily locations. Most manatees returned faithfully to the same seasonal ranges year after year (median distance between range centers was <5 km between years). Seasonal movements of 4 immature manatees tracked as calves with their mothers

Design, operation and performance of a ground coupled heat pump system in a cold climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metz, P. D.

An antifreeze filled serpentine earth coil was designed to just meet heating needs of a small, well insulated house with an average brine temperature never less than 7 C (20 F). The 155 m (507 ft) long, 1.2 m (4 ft) coil made from nominal size 1-1/2 in medium density polyethylene pipe was installed by a local plumbing contractor using two different chain driven trenchers. A commercially available water to air heat pump was used with minor modifications. System performance was monitored using kilowat hour meters, a Btu meter, and a datalogger microcomputer data acquisition system. The house temperature was kept between 21 and 23 C (70 and 74 F) all winter despite outdoor temperature as low as 24 C (-11 F). During a period when the outdoor temperature averaged -2 C (28 F), the system extracted approximately 10.2 x 10 to the 9th power 3 (9.7 x 10 to the 6th power Btu) from the ground with an almost constant heat pump COP (coefficient of performance) averaging about 2.3 and a system COP of 2.2. No resistance heating was used.

Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S.; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V.; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S.; Abayev, Nurlan N.; Madibekov, Azamat S.

2018-03-01

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.

Spatio-temporal distribution and environmental drivers of Barley yellow dwarf virus and vector abundance in Kansas.

PubMed

Enders, Laramy; Hefley, Trevor; Girvin, John; Whitworth, Robert; Smith, Charles

2018-05-11

Several aphid species transmit barley yellow dwarf, a globally destructive disease caused by viruses that infect cereal grain crops. Data from >400 samples collected across Kansas wheat fields in 2014 and 2015 were used to develop spatio-temporal models predicting the extent to which landcover, temperature and precipitation affect spring aphid vector abundance and presence of individuals carrying Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV). The distribution of Rhopalosiphum padi abundance was not correlated with climate or landcover, but Sitobion avenae abundance was positively correlated to fall temperature and negatively correlated to spring temperature and precipitation. The abundance of Schizaphis graminum was negatively correlated with fall precipitation and winter temperature. The incidence of viruliferous (+BYDV) R. padi was positively correlated with fall precipitation but negatively correlated with winter precipitation. In contrast, the probability of +BYDV S. avenae was unaffected by precipitation but was positively correlated with average fall temperatures and distance to nearest forest or shrubland. R. padi and S. avenae were more prevalent at Eastern sample sites where ground cover is more grassland than cropland, suggesting that grassland may provide over-summering sites for vectors and pose a risk as potential BYDV reservoirs. Nevertheless, land cover patterns were not strongly associated with differences in abundance or probability that viruliferous aphids were present.

Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change.

PubMed

Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S; Abayev, Nurlan N; Madibekov, Azamat S

2018-03-05

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.

Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

Seasonal thermoregulatory responses in mammals.

PubMed

Lovegrove, Barry G

2005-05-01

This study examined the proportional seasonal winter adjustments of total and mass-specific basal power (watts and watts g-1, respectively), thermal conductance (watts g-1 degrees C-1), non-shivering thermogenesis capacity (ratio of NST/basal power), body temperature ( degrees C), and body mass (g) of mammals. The responses are best summarized for three different body size classes; small mammals (<100 g), intermediate-sized mammals (0.1-10 kg), and large mammals (>10 kg). The principal adjustments of the small mammals center on energy conservation, especially the Dehnel Effect, the winter reduction in body size of as much as 50%, accompanied by reductions in mass-specific basal power. On average, these reductions reduce the total basal power approximately in direct proportion to the mass reductions. Reductions in mass-specific basal power are matched by concomitant reductions in conductance to maintain the setpoint body temperature during winter. The overall thermoregulatory adjustments in small mammals serve to (a) lower overall winter power consumption, (b) maintain the setpoint body temperature, and (c) lower the lower critical limit of thermoneutrality and hence thermoregulatory costs. In intermediate-size mammals, the seasonal response is centered more on increasing thermogenic capacity by increasing basal power and NST capacity, accompanied by predictable and large reductions in conductance. The Dehnel effect is negligible. Very large mammals undergo the largest reductions in total and mass-specific basal power and conductance. However, there are too few data to resolve whether the reductions in total basal power can be attributed to the Dehnel effect, because the moderate decreases in body mass may also be caused by nutritional stress. Apart from the seasonal changes in basal power, these observations are consistent with the predictions of Heldmaier's seasonal acclimatization model.

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

PubMed Central

Tamerius, James D.; Shaman, Jeffrey; Alonso, Wladmir J.; Bloom-Feshbach, Kimberly; Uejio, Christopher K.; Comrie, Andrew; Viboud, Cécile

2013-01-01

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates. PMID:23505366

Temperature characteristics of winter roost-sites for birds and mammals: tree cavities and anthropogenic alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grüebler, Martin U.; Widmer, Silv; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Naef-Daenzer, Beat

2014-07-01

The microclimate of potential roost-sites is likely to be a crucial determinant in the optimal roost-site selection of endotherms, in particular during the winter season of temperate zones. Available roost-sites for birds and mammals in European high trunk orchards are mainly tree cavities, wood stacks and artificial nest boxes. However, little is known about the microclimatic patterns inside cavities and thermal advantages of using these winter roost-sites. Here, we simultaneously investigate the thermal patterns of winter roost-sites in relation to winter ambient temperature and their insulation capacity. While tree cavities and wood stacks strongly buffered the daily cycle of temperature changes, nest boxes showed low buffering capacity. The buffering effect of tree cavities was stronger at extreme ambient temperatures compared to temperatures around zero. Heat sources inside roosts amplified Δ T (i.e., the difference between inside and outside temperatures), particularly in the closed roosts of nest boxes and tree cavities, and less in the open wood stacks with stronger circulation of air. Positive Δ T due to the installation of a heat source increased in cold ambient temperatures. These results suggest that orchard habitats in winter show a spatiotemporal mosaic of sites providing different thermal benefits varying over time and in relation to ambient temperatures. At cold temperatures tree cavities provide significantly higher thermal benefits than nest boxes or wood stacks. Thus, in winter ecology of hole-using endotherms, the availability of tree cavities may be an important characteristic of winter habitat quality.

Climate, geography, and tree establishment in Subalpine Meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodward, A.; Silsbee, D.G.; Schreiner, E.G.

1995-08-01

Noticeable changes in vegetation distribution have occurred in the Pacific Northwest during the last century as trees have established in some subalpine meadows. To study the relationship of this process to climate, recently established trees were aged in six subalpine meadows in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. The sites represent three points along a steep precipitation gradient. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) has been establishing at the dry end of the gradient, mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) at the wet end, and both species in the center. Establishment patterns were compared with deviations from the century-long average for these weather variables: winter precipitation,more » Palmer Drought Severity Index, and winter, October and May temperatures. Results show that establishment occurred in dry areas when weather conditions were wetter than average, and in wet areas under drier than average conditions. Establishment at central sites did not show consistent relationships with climate. If future climatic conditions continue to warm, establishment of subalpine fir in subalpine meadows in dry areas may cease and mountain hemlock may resume in wet areas. 34 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Time and temperature interactions in freezing tolerance of winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to survive the temperature fluctuations that occur during the winter months, winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) plants must tolerate episodes of freezing to various temperatures for various lengths of time. In this study, the ability of six wheat cultivars to survive exposure to -13.5 to ...

The effect of sub-floor heating on house-dust-mite populations on floors and in furniture.

PubMed

de Boer, Rob

2003-01-01

It is well known that dehydrating conditions for house dust mites can be created by simply raising the temperature, causing loss of body water and eventually death. Thus, it can be expected that conditions for dust mites are less favourable on floors supplied with sub-floor heating. This was examined in a study of 16 houses with sub-floor heating and 21 without. The pattern of changes in air humidity and temperature on the floors was investigated and compared to known data of the tolerance of dust mites. Also the resident mite populations were compared. Floors with sub-floor heating had, on average, fewer mites, but the difference with unheated floors was small. It was remarkable that mite numbers were also lower in upholstered furniture. Another important observation was that some houses with sub-floor heating had high mite numbers, indicating that this type of heating is compatible with a thriving mite population. Temperature and humidity conditions of heated floors may allow mites not only to survive, but also to remain active in winter. A moderate increase in temperature, a moderate decrease in (absolute) air humidity, or a combination of both, will suffice to keep the humidity all winter below the Critical Equilibrium Humidity, the level of air humidity that is critical for mite growth and reproduction, hence for allergen production. However, it is argued that measures to suppress allergen production by house dust mites are likely to be far more effective if taken in summer rather than in winter.

Winter temperatures over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia: development of a new index and its application to seasonal forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seon Tae; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-09-01

This study proposes a new index for monitoring and predicting winter temperatures of the Korean Peninsula based on the dominant atmospheric winter teleconnection patterns. The utilization of this index is further extended to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) index because the new index is found to well represent the main feature of the EAWM circulation. Among the teleconnection patterns, the East Atlantic (EA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns are found to be most strongly correlated with winter temperatures via their partial association with changes in sea level pressure (SLP) around the Korean Peninsula, i.e., the EA and WP patterns are associated with SLP variation over the Siberian High region and the Kuroshio extension region to the east of Japan, respectively. On the basis of this relationship, the two regions representing the northwest-to-southeast SLP gradients are determined to define the new index. It is found that the new index can represent the Korean winter temperatures consistently well regardless of their considerable decadal changes. When compared with the existing SLP-based EAWM indices, the new index shows the best performance in delineating winter air temperatures, not only in the Korean Peninsula but also in the entire East Asian region. We also assess the prediction skill of the new index with seasonal coupled forecast models of the APEC Climate Center of Korea and its capability to predict winter temperatures. This assessment shows that the new index has potential for operationally predicting and monitoring winter temperatures in Korea and the whole of East Asia.

Diel stream temperature regimes of Bukovsky regions of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferencz, Stephen B.; Cardenas, M. Bayani

2017-03-01

Stream temperature which varies over daily to seasonal timescales is a primary control on myriad ecological, biogeochemical, and physical processes. Yet geographic patterns of its diel variations have not been fully characterized. Using daily temperature records spanning 15 years (2000-2014), monthly averaged mean daily temperature and diel temperature range were calculated for streams distributed across six Bukovsky regions of the conterminous U.S. Across all six regions, diel temperature fluctuations were lowest during the winter, around 1-2°C. During the summer there was wide distribution in diel temperatures (2°C-12°C). The regions revealed distinct differences in diel patterns for small and medium streams, but not for large streams. Small and medium streams exhibited notable hysteresis in their annual progression of diel temperature ranges, with larger diel temperature fluctuations in the spring than in the fall.

Cold-induced bradycardia in man during sleep in Arctic winter nights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buguet, A. G. C.

1987-03-01

Two young male Caucasians volunteered for a study on the effects of cold exposure during night sleep in winter in the Arctic. The 14-day experiment was divided in three consecutive periods, baseline (2 nights), cold exposure (10 night) and recovery (2 nights). Both baseline and recovery data were obtained in neutral thermal conditions in a laboratory. The subjects slept in a sleeping bag under an unheated tent during the cold exposure. Apart from polysomnographic and body temperature recordings, electrocardiograms were taken through a telemetric system for safety purposes. Heart rates were noted at 5-min intervals and averaged hourly. In both environmental conditions, heart rate decreased within the first two hours of sleep. Comparison of the data obtained during cold exposure vs. thermal neutrality revealed lower values of heart rate in the cold, while body temperatures remained within normal range. This cold-induced bradycardia supervening during night sleep is discussed in terms of the occurrence of a vagal reflex preventing central blood pressure to rise.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

PubMed Central

Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore; Johnson, Helen L.; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2017-01-01

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020. PMID:28631732

The Potential of Five Winter-grown Crops to Reduce Root-knot Nematode Damage and Increase Yield of Tomato

PubMed Central

López-Pérez, Jose Antonio; Roubtsova, Tatiana; de Cara García, Miguel

2010-01-01

Broccoli (Brassica oleracea), carrot (Daucus carota), marigold (Tagetes patula), nematode-resistant tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), and strawberry (Fragaria ananassa) were grown for three years during the winter in a root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) infested field in Southern California. Each year in the spring, the tops of all crops were shredded and incorporated in the soil. Amendment with poultry litter was included as a sub-treatment. The soil was then covered with clear plastic for six weeks and M. incognita-susceptible tomato was grown during the summer season. Plastic tarping raised the average soil temperature at 13 cm depth by 7°C.The different winter-grown crops or the poultry litter did not affect M. incognita soil population levels. However, root galling on summer tomato was reduced by 36%, and tomato yields increased by 19% after incorporating broccoli compared to the fallow control. This crop also produced the highest amount of biomass of the five winter-grown crops. Over the three-year trial period, poultry litter increased tomato yields, but did not affect root galling caused by M. incognita. We conclude that cultivation followed by soil incorporation of broccoli reduced M. incognita damage to tomato. This effect is possibly due to delaying or preventing a portion of the nematodes to reach the host roots. We also observed that M. incognita populations did not increase under a host crop during the cool season when soil temperatures remained low (< 18°C). PMID:22736848

Wolf predation and snow cover as mortality factors in the ungulate community of the Bialowieża National Park, Poland.

PubMed

Jędrzejewski, Wlodzimierz; Jędrzejewska, Bogumila; Okarma, Henryk; Ruprecht, Andrzej L

1992-04-01

Wolf-ungulate interactions were studied in the pristine deciduous and mixed forests of the Bialowieża National Park in 1985-1989. The study period included two severe and two mild winters. The community of ungulates inhabiting Bialowieża National Park consisted of red deer Cervus elaphus, 55% of all ungulates; wild boar Sus scrofa, 42%; and roe deer Capreolus capreolus, moose Alces alces, and European bison Bison bonasus, about 1% each. The average size of red deer groups increased from 2.7 (SD 2.35) in spring and summer to 6.9 (SD 6.84) in autumn and winter. In winter the group size of red deer was positively correlated with the depth of snow cover and negatively correlated with the mean daily temperature. Average group size of wild boar did not change significantly between seasons; it was 6.8 (SD 5.16) in spring and summer and 5.7 (SD 4.67) in autumn and winter. Analysis of 144 wolf scats showed that wolves preyed selectively on red deer. In October-April, Cervidae (mostly red deer) constituted 91% of biomass consumed by wolves, while wild boar made up only 8%. In May-September deer formed 77% of prey biomass, and the share of wild boar increased to 22%. In all seasons of the year wolves selected juveniles from deer and boar populations: 61% of red deer and 94% of wild boar of determined age recovered from wolves' scats were young <1 year old. Analysis of 117 carcasses of ungulates found in Bialowieża National Park showed that predation was the predominant mortality factor for red deer (40 killed, 10 dead from causes other than predation) and roe deer (4 killed, none dead). Wild boar suffered most from severe winter conditions (8 killed, 56 dead). The percentage of ungulates that had died from undernutrition and starvation in the total mortality was proportional to the severity of winter.

Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

2012-07-01

1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

The key to winter survival: daily torpor in a small arid-zone marsupial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

2009-04-01

Mammalian hibernation, which lasts on average for about 6 months, can reduce energy expenditure by >90% in comparison to active individuals. In contrast, the widely held view is that daily torpor reduces energy expenditure usually by about 30%, is employed for a few hours every few days, and often occurs only under acute energetic stress. This interpretation is largely based on laboratory studies, whereas knowledge on daily torpor in the field is scant. We used temperature telemetry to quantify thermal biology and activity patterns of a small arid-zone marsupial, the stripe-faced dunnart Sminthopsis macroura (16.9 g), in the wild and to test the hypothesis that daily torpor is a crucial survival strategy of this species in winter. All individuals entered torpor daily with the exception of a single male that remained normothermic for a single day (torpor on 212 of 213 observation days, 99.5%). Torpor was employed at air temperatures ( T a) ranging from approximately -1°C to 36°C. Dunnarts usually entered torpor during the night and aroused at midday with the daily increase of T a. Torpor was on average about twice as long (mean 11.0 ± 4.7 h, n = 8) than in captivity. Animals employed sun basking during rewarming, reduced foraging time significantly, and occasionally omitted activity for several days in sequence. Consequently, we estimate that daily torpor in this species can reduce daily energy expenditure by up to 90%. Our study shows that for wild stripe-faced dunnarts daily torpor is an essential mechanism for overcoming energetic challenges during winter and that torpor data obtained in the laboratory can substantially underestimate the ecological significance of daily torpor in the wild.

Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency.

PubMed

Estiarte, Marc; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-03-01

Leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. The purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. Photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. Photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. Warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. Nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. The overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. Changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. Changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tracer-based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999/2000 Arctic Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenblatt, Jeffrey B.; Jost, Hans-Juerg; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James R.; Hurst, Dale F.; Elkins, James W.; Schauffler, Sue M.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Herman, Robert L.; Webster, Chrisotopher R.

2002-01-01

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999/2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for 26 November 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences we inferred descent prior to 26 November: as much as 397 plus or minus 15 K (lsigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and falling to 28 plus or minus 13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from 26 November through 12 March, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between 26 November and 27 January: 0.82 plus or minus 0.20 K/day averaged over 50- 250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (26 February to 12 March), the average rate had decreased to 0.10 plus or minus 0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (26 November to 5 March) descent rate varied from 0.75 plus or minus 0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40 plus or minus 0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999/2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Climate and smoke: an appraisal of nuclear winter.

PubMed

Turco, R P; Toon, O B; Ackerman, T P; Pollack, J B; Sagan, C

1990-01-12

The latest understanding of nuclear winter is reviewed. Considerable progress has been made in quantifying the production and injection of soot by large-scale fires, the regional and global atmospheric dispersion of the soot, and the resulting physical, environmental, and climatic perturbations. New information has been obtained from laboratory studies, field experiments, and numerical modeling on a variety of scales (plume, mesoscale, and global). For the most likely soot injections from a full-scale nuclear exchange, three-dimensional climate simulations yield midsummer land temperature decreases that average 10 degrees to 20 degrees C in northern mid-latitudes, with local cooling as large as 35 degrees C, and subfreezing summer temperatures in some regions. Anomalous atmospheric circulations caused by solar heating of soot is found to stabilize the upper atmosphere against overturning, thus increasing the soot lifetime, and to accelerate interhemispheric transport, leading to persistent effects in the Southern Hemisphere. Serious new environmental problems associated with soot injection have been identified, including disruption of monsoon precipitation and severe depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer in the Northern Hemisphere. The basic physics of nuclear winter has been reaffirmed through several authoritative international technical assessments and numerous individual scientific investigations. Remaining areas of uncertainty and research priorities are discussed in view of the latest findings.

Modeled and measured glacier change and related glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance and water years 2006 and 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

2010-01-01

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance years 2006 and 2007. Mass balances were computed with assistance from a new model that was based on the works of other glacier researchers. The model, which was developed for mass balance practitioners, coupled selected meteorological and glaciological data to systematically estimate daily mass balance at selected glacier sites. The North Cascade Range in the vicinity of South Cascade Glacier accumulated approximately average to above average winter snow packs during 2006 and 2007. Correspondingly, the balance years 2006 and 2007 maximum winter snow mass balances of South Cascade Glacier, 2.61 and 3.41 meters water equivalent, respectively, were approximately equal to or more positive (larger) than the average of such balances since 1959. The 2006 glacier summer balance, -4.20 meters water equivalent, was among the four most negative since 1959. The 2007 glacier summer balance, -3.63 meters water equivalent, was among the 14 most negative since 1959. The glacier continued to lose mass during 2006 and 2007, as it commonly has since 1953, but the loss was much smaller during 2007 than during 2006. The 2006 glacier net balance, -1.59 meters water equivalent, was 1.02 meters water equivalent more negative (smaller) than the average during 1953-2005. The 2007 glacier net balance, -0.22 meters water equivalent, was 0.37 meters water equivalent less negative (larger) than the average during 1953-2006. The 2006 accumulation area ratio was less than 0.10, owing to isolated patches of accumulated snow that endured the 2006 summer season. The 2006 equilibrium line altitude was higher than the glacier. The 2007 accumulation area ratio and equilibrium line altitude were 0.60 and 1,880 meters, respectively. Accompanying the glacier mass losses were retreat of the terminus and reduction of total glacier area. The terminus retreated at a rate of about 13 meters per year during balance year 2006 and at a rate of about 8 meters per year during balance year 2007. Glacier area near the end of balance years 2006 and 2007 was 1.74 and 1.73 square kilometers, respectively. Runoff from the basin containing the glacier and from an adjacent nonglacierized basin was gaged during all or parts of water years 2006 and 2007. Air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and incoming solar radiation were measured at selected locations on and near the glacier. Air-temperature over the glacier at a height of 2 meters generally was less than at the same altitude in the air mass away from the glacier. Cooling of the air by the glacier increased systematically with increasing ambient air temperature. Empirically based equations were developed to estimate 2-meter-height air temperature over the glacier at five sites from site altitude and temperature at a non-glacier reference site.

Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.

2017-12-01

Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.

The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon

2006-01-01

Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on themore » simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.« less

[Seasonal and semi-lunar changes in fish community structure in low salinity intertidal area of Yangtze estuary].

PubMed

Zhang, Heng; He, Wen-Shan; Tong, Chun-Fu; Lu, Jian-Jian

2008-05-01

Based on the survey of the fishes in low salinity intertidal area of the Yangtze estuary from spring (May) 2006 to winter (February) 2007, the seasonal and semi-lunar changes of fish species and abundances were analyzed. A total of 53 fish species were collected, most of which belonged to Cyprinidae, followed by Gobiidae, and few of other families. The fish species and average abundance were higher in spring, summer, and autumn than in winter and lower in low tides than in high tides in four seasons. Shannon-Weaver (H') value had a greater fluctuation in a tidal cycle, and was appreciably lower in low tides than in high tides. The fish species and abundance were clustered into two groups, i. e., that of winter, and of the other seasons. As for the whole year, the abundance had the highest positive correlation with water temperature, then with tide height, and lowest with water salinity.

Dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon, during winter flow conditions, 1991 and 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, V.J.

1996-01-01

Throughout the winter period, November through April, wastewater treatment plants in the Tualatin River Basin discharge from 10,000 to 15,000 pounds per day of biochemical oxygen demand to the river. These loads often increase substantially during storms when streamflow is high. During the early winter season, when streamflow is frequently less than the average winter flow, the treatment plants discharge about 2,000 pounds per day of ammonia. This study focused on the capacity of the Tualatin River to assimilat oxygen-demanding loads under winter streamflow conditions during the 1992 water year, with an emphasis on peak-flow conditions in the river, and winter-base-flow conditions during November 1992. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen throughout the main stem of the river during the winter remained generally high relative to the State standard for Oregon of 6 milligrams per liter. The most important factors controlling oxygen consumption during winter-low-flow conditions were carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand and input of oxygen-depleted waters from tributaries. During peak-flow conditions, reduced travel time and increased dilution associated with the increased streamflow minimized the effect of increased oxygen-demanding loads. During the base-flow period in November 1992, concentrations of dissolved oxygen were consistently below 6 milligrams per liter. A hydrodynamic water-quality model was used to identify the processes depleting dissolved oxygen, including sediment oxygen demand, nitrification, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Sediment oxygen demand was the most significant factor; nitrification was also important. Hypothetical scenarios were posed to evaluate the effect of different wastewater treatment plant loads during winter-base-flow conditions. Streamflow and temperature were significant factors governing concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the main-stem river.

[Freezing resistance and injury indices for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. I . Comparison of freezing resistance for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat during mid-winter period].

PubMed

Mu, Cheng-ying; Yang, Xiao-guang; Yang, Jie; Li, Ke-nan; Zheng, Dong-xiao

2015-10-01

The relationships between mortality rate and low temperature for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat during mid-winter period were identified through two-year outdoor potting experiments and indoor manually controlled freezing experiments. We defined the lethally critical temperature and the density of antifreeze capability when the mortality rate reached 10%, 20% and 50% for different cultivars of winter-spring wheat during mid-winter period. The strong-winterness wheat (Yanda 1817 and Jing 411) showed the best freezing resistance and the 50%-lethal temperatures (LT50) of these two cultivars were -21.5 °C and -21.2 °C, respectively. The freezing resistance of winterness wheat and weak-winternes wheat were worse than that of strong-winterness wheat. The LT50 of winterness wheat cultivars Nongda 211 and Nongda 5363 were -21.1 °C and -20.3 °C, while that of weak-winterness wheat cultivars Zheng 366 and Ping' an 8 were -18.5 °C and -18.4 °C , respectively. Springness wheat (Zheng 9023 and Yanzhan 4110) showed the worst freezing resistance, and the LT50 were -15.4 °C and -14.7 °C, respectively. When temperature declined to freezing injury occurred, mortality rate increment for weak-winterness wheat was the highest for each 1 °C decrease. The mortality rates of weak-winterness wheat cultivars Zheng 366 and Ping' an 8 increased by 16.8% and 25.8%, and that of winterness wheat cultivars Nongda 211 and Nongda 5363 increased by 14.7% and 18.9%. The mortality rate of strong-winterness wheat cultivars Yanda 1817 and Jing 411 increased by 15.4% and 13.1%, and that of springiness wheat cultivas Zheng 9023 and Yanzhan 4110 increased by 13.8% and 15.1%. Comparatively, if temperature decreased continuously after the occurrence of freezing injury, the weak-winterness wheat would suffer greater risk.

Summer and winter time heterogeneity in aerosol single scattering albedo over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean during the TCAP field campaign: Relationship to chemical composition and mixing state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, L. K.; Chand, D.; Fast, J. D.; Zelenyuk, A.; Wilson, J. M.; Sedlacek, A. J., III; Tomlinson, J. M.; Hubbe, J. M.; Comstock, J. M.; Mei, F.; Kassianov, E.; Schmid, B.

2015-12-01

Aerosol play crucial role in earth's radiative budget by scattering and absorbing solar radiation. The impact of aerosol on radiation budget depend on several factors including single scattering albedo (SSA), composition, and the growth processes, like coating or mixing. We describe findings relevant to optical properties of aerosol characterized over the Cape Cod and nearby northwest Atlantic Ocean during the Two Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) during the summer (July 2012) and winter (February 2013) campaigns. The average single scattering albedo (SSA) shows distinctly different vertical profiles during the summer and winter periods. During the summer study period, the average SSA is greater than 0.95 near surface, it increases to 0.97 until an altitude of 2.5 km, and then decreases to 0.94 at top of the column near 4 km. In contrast, during the winter study period the average SSA is less than 0.93 and decreases with height reaching an average value of 0.87 near the top of the column. The large difference in summer and winter time SSA is linked to the presence of biomass burning (BB) aerosol rather than black carbon or soot in both seasons. In our study, the BB on average is factor of two higher in free troposphere (FT) during summer and more than a factor of two higher in the boundary layer during winter. Single particle analysis indicates that the average profiles of refractory black carbon (rBC) mass are similar in both seasons. The average rBC size are similar at all altitudes sampled (0-4 km) in summer time but different during winter time. In addition, the particles sampled in the summertime FT appear to be more aged than those seen during winter. The observed large heterogeneity in SSA and its links to the particle coating and composition highlights the importance of aging and mixing processes of aerosol in this region and represents a challenge for both regional and global scale models.

Effects of transport duration on maintenance behavior, heart rate and gastrointestinal tract temperature of market-weight pigs in 2 seasons.

PubMed

Goumon, S; Brown, J A; Faucitano, L; Bergeron, R; Widowski, T M; Crowe, T; Connor, M L; Gonyou, H W

2013-10-01

Welfare and meat quality of market-weight pigs may be negatively affected by transport duration and environmental temperatures, which vary considerably between seasons. This study evaluated the effects of 3 transport durations (6, 12, and 18 h) on the physiology and behavior of pigs in summer and winter in western Canada. Market-weight pigs were transported using a pot-belly trailer at an average loading density of 0.375 m(2)/100 kg. Four replicates of each transport duration were conducted during each season. Heart rate and gastrointestinal tract temperature (GTT) were monitored from loading to unloading in 16 pigs from 4 selected trailer compartments (n = 96 groups, total of 384 animals, BW = 120.8 ± 0.4 kg), namely top front (C1), top back (C4), middle front (C5), and bottom rear (C10). Behavior was recorded for pigs (948 and 924 animals, in summer and winter, respectively) in C1, C4, and C5 during transportation (standing, sitting, lying), and during 90 min in lairage (sitting, lying, drinking, latency to rest) for pigs in all 4 compartments. Transport was split into 7 periods: loading, pre-travel (PT), initial travel (IT), pre-arrival 1 (PA1) and 2 (PA2), unloading, and lairage. During IT and PA2, pigs spent less time lying in winter than summer (P < 0.05 and P < 0.05, respectively). During PA1, PA2, and unloading, a greater (P < 0.001) heart rate was found in pigs transported in winter compared with summer. During PA2, pigs subjected to the 18-h transport treatment in winter had a greater (P < 0.05) GTT than the other groups. In lairage, pigs transported for 18 h in winter drank more (P < 0.001) and took longer to rest (P < 0.01) than pigs from other groups. During PA1, pigs transported for 18 h had the greatest GTT (P < 0.001). At unloading, pigs transported for 6 h had the lowest GTT (P < 0.001). In lairage, pigs transported for 18 h spent less time lying than those transported for 6 or 12 h (P < 0.001). These results suggest that in winter, pigs increased their metabolism and were reluctant to rest on cold floors. Pigs transported for 18 h in winter showed greater evidence of thirst. It may be concluded that under western Canadian climatic conditions, long transports (18 h) in cold weather appear to be more detrimental to pig welfare.

Modelling the influence of elevation and snow regime on winter stream temperature in the rain-on-snow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leach, J.; Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Winter stream temperature of coastal mountain catchments influences fish growth and development. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs are dominant controls on stream thermal regimes in these regions. Existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. Therefore, we developed and evaluated a conceptual-parametric catchment-scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model provided reasonable estimates of observed stream temperature at three test catchments. We used the model to simulate winter stream temperature for virtual catchments located at different elevations within the rain-on-snow zone. The modelling exercise examined stream temperature response associated with interactions between elevation, snow regime, and changes in air temperature. Modelling results highlight that the sensitivity of winter stream temperature response to changes in climate may be dependent on catchment elevation and landscape position.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

2018-04-01

The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo; Svensson, Gunilla

2014-05-01

Observations during recent decades show that there is a greater near surface warming occurring in the Arctic, particularly during winter, than at lower latitudes. Understanding the mechanisms controlling surface temperature in the Arctic is therefore an important priority in climate research. The surface energy budget is a key proximate control on Arctic surface temperature. During winter, insolation is low or absent and the atmospheric boundary layer is typically very stable, limiting turbulent hear exchange, so that the surface energy budget is almost entirely governed by longwave radiation. The net surface longwave radiation (NetLW) at this time has a strikingly bimodal distribution: conditions oscillate between a 'radiatively clear' state with rapid surface heat loss and a "moist cloudy" state with NetLW ˜ 0 W m-2. Each state can persist for days or weeks at a time but transitions between them happen in a matter of hours. This distribution of NetLW has important implications for the Arctic climate, as even a small shift in the frequency of occupancy of each state would be enough to significantly affect the overall surface energy budget and thus winter sea ice thickness. The clear and cloudy states typically occur during periods of relatively high and low surface pressure respectively, suggesting a link with synoptic-scale dynamics. This suggestion is consistent with previous studies indicating that the formation of low-level and mid-level clouds over the Arctic Ocean is typically associated with cyclonic activity and passing frontal systems . More recent work has shown that intense filamentary moisture intrusion events are a common feature in the Arctic and can induce large episodic increases of longwave radiation into the surface. The poleward transport of water vapor across 70N during boreal winter is examined in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, focusing on intense moisture intrusion events. A total of 298 events are objectively identified between 1990 and 2010 in the reanalysis dataset, an average of 14 per season, accounting for 28% of the total poleward moisture transport across 70N. Composites of sea level pressure and potential temperature on the 2 potential vorticity unit surface during intrusions show a large-scale blocking pattern to the east of each basin, deflecting midlatitude cyclones and their associated moisture poleward. The interannual variability of intrusions is strongly correlated with variability in winter-mean surface downward longwave radiation and skin temperature averaged over the Arctic. The 16 CMIP5 models are validated with respect to the reanalysis dataset and a subset of 7 models is chosen as best representing intrusions. Intrusions in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) from these 7 models are analyzed between 2060 and 2100. Positive trends in the moisture transported by intrusions are noted. The mechanisms behind these trends are examined in each of the models, dynamically and thermodynamically, with regard to the positioning of the storm track and climatological jets in a moistening atmosphere.

Snow in northeastern United States

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-11

Snow covered the northeastern United States on last day of meteorological winter, 2014. Climatologists and meteorologists break seasons down into three-month groups, based on annual temperature and our calendar. This method is helpful for weather observing and forecasting, and for planning consistent agricultural dates, such as expected first frosts or best planting date. Meteorological winter – the season where temperatures are, on average, coldest and when snow is most likely to fall – runs from December 1 to February 28 in the United States and Canada. Winter can also be defined by the astronomical calendar, which is based on the rotation of the Earth around the sun. In this method, the seasons are defined by two solstices (times when the sun’s path is furthest from the Earth’s equator) and two equinoxes (the times when the sun passes directly above the equator). In the Northern Hemisphere, winter begins on the winter solstice, which falls on or around December 22 and ends on or around March 21, at the vernal (spring) equinox. On February 28, 2014, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image of a sunny winter day in the northeastern United States. Snow stretches from Maine west to Indiana and south along the ridges of the Appalachian Mountains well into West Virginia. In Canada, the landscape appears greener, primarily because snow lies on conifers (evergreen) trees in the boreal forest regions. The Great Lakes, with the exception of Lake Ontario, are almost completely covered with ice. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Multidecadal changes in the river ice regime of the lower course of the River Drava since AD 1875

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takács, Katalin; Kern, Zoltán

2015-10-01

River ice is principally controlled by atmospheric conditions, especially temperature, so these records provide useful information on the climate in general. A more than 130-year-time-series of ice-on and ice-off, and freeze-up and break-up dates was analysed from 4 selected hydrological stations along the lower course of the River Drava since the beginning of river ice observations the start- and end-dates of ice phenomena on Drava River have displayed a significant trend. Freeze-up dates have shifted to ∼9 days later, and break-up dates to ∼10 days earlier. A similar trend is present in the dates of ice-on and ice-off; these dates have shifted to ∼23 days later and ∼17 days earlier per 100 years on average. These changes have resulted in a pronounced reduction in the ice-covered and ice-affected seasons, too. The duration of ice-cover has decreased by ∼14 days and the total number of ice-affected days has decreased by ∼31 days over a century on average on the lower course of the Drava. Interannual variability was compared to local and regional instrumental temperature records. The strongest correlation was found between ice-off and January-February mean temperatures (r = 0.81, p < 0.05), and between the total number of icy days and the mean winter temperature (r = 0.88, p < 0.05). Statistical evidence indicated, however, that the subdued climate control from the 1970s is probably due to anthropogenic intervention in the upper course (e.g. reservoir construction, hydropower management). Spatial correlation analysis revealed that the temperature signal carried by the river ice records of the Drava prior to the anthropogenic disturbance seems to be a powerful proxy for the winter temperature of Central Europe.

Seasonal variations of mesopause temperature and the amplitude of the VLF signals of the Novosibirsk radio station during 2009-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsakov, Alexey; Kozlov, Vladimir; Ammosova, Anastasia; Ammosov, Petr; Gavrilyeva, Galina; Koltovskoi, Igor; Pavlov, Yegor

2017-10-01

Dynamics of seasonal variations of the amplitude of the VLF radio signal received in Yakutsk from the navigation station near Novosibirsk and the P-branches of the OH band (6-2) radiation intensity in the wavelength range 835 - 853 nm are considered. The radiation variations give information about mesopause region measured at the Maimaga station (130 km from Yakutsk). The observation from 2009 to 2016 covers period with minimum and maximum solar activity. The mesopause temperature and the VLF signal increase with increasing solar flux F10.7 in winter. The mesopause temperature seasonal variations and the VLF signal strength for the Novosibirsk-Yakutsk path are regularly inverted from year to year. By decade data averaging the VLF radio signal strength dependence on the temperature of the atmosphere at the OH excitation height can be expressed by a linear function. The coefficient of determination: R2 = 0.59, the anticorrelation coefficient: r10 = - 0.77. The variations of the VLF radio noise and the radio station signal for the eight-year interval are similar to solar activity (F10.7 index). The signal level of the radio station and radio noise registered in the winter is more sensitive to variations of F10.7 index in 24th solar cycle activity.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Temperature and water-quality conditions of the Patuxent River estuary, Maryland, January 1966 through December 1967

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cory, Robert L.; Nauman, Jon W.

1970-01-01

The effect of power plant cooling water in raising natural water temperatures at a location near the power plant on the Patuxent River estuary is clearly evident from thermograph records. Surface temperature at a station 333 m (1,000 ft) downstream from the discharge canal was raised an average of about 4 C, and at times by as much as 8 C. Temperature rises were greatest during the winter. Infrared imagery showed that elevated surface temperatures could be detected about 5.5 km (3 nautical miles) upstream at flood tide. Temperature profiles obtained from airborne radiation equipment revealed a complicated surface temperature pattern and also showed the effects of density differences and wind action on the steam-electric station (S.E.S.) effluent plume. Mean annual salinity for a 5-year period (1963–1967) was highest in 1966, about 12.3 ‰, and lowest in 1967, about 9.9‰. Dissolved oxygen values for 1966–1967 ranged from 3.2 to 15.6 mg/l, and saturation ranged from 55 to 152%. Turbidity levels were inversely related to salinity, with the highest annual, mean of 28 JCU (Jackson Candle Units) occurring in 1967, the lowest salinity year. The extreme tide range was 2.1 m (6.7 ft); mean water levels at the Patuxent Bridge were highest in summer and lowest in winter. Water stages are more affected by wind speed and direction than by flow in the river.

Biogas generation from in-storage psychrophilic anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Giard, David; Choiniere, Denis; Cordeau, Sébastien; Barrington, Suzelle

2013-01-01

In-storage psychrophilic anaerobic digestion (ISPAD) is a technology allowing livestock producers to operate an anaerobic digester with minimum technological know-how and for the cost of a conventional storage cover. Nevertheless, the system is exposed to ambient temperatures and biogas production is expected to vary with climatic conditions. The objective of the project was therefore to measure ISPAD biogas production during the winter and fall seasons for a region east of Montreal, Canada. A calibrated biogas monitoring system was used to monitor biogas methane and carbon dioxide concentrations inside a two-year-old field installation with a 1000 m3 storage capacity. Despite a leaking pumping hatch, winter 2010 (January to March) methane concentrations varied directly with solar radiation and maximum exterior temperature, rather than with manure temperature at 2.4 and 1.2 m depths which remained relatively constant between 1 and 5 degrees C. During a six-month-period from November 2009 to April 2010, inclusively, the field ISPAD degraded 34% of the manure volatile solids corresponding to an average methane production of 40 m3/d. The ISPAD biogas production could be further increased by improving its air tightness and intrusion and by regularly pumping out the biogas.

Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.

2016-08-01

Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.

Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05) of 0.25 (SD 0.61) °C in the morning and 0.24 (SD 0.50) °C in the afternoon. Differences between oral temperatures in summer and winter tended to be greater in subjects with low ADL scores, even when their room temperature was well-controlled. In conclusion, the oral temperatures of the elderly are lower in winter than summer, particularly in physically inactive people. It appears that those with low levels of ADL are more vulnerable to large changes in ambient temperature.

Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, S.J.; Iverson, J.B.; Savidge, J.A.

2005-01-01

Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate (????) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance (????2) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Attenuated thermoregulatory responses with increased plasma osmolality in obese subjects during two seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanikowska, Dominika; Sato, Maki; Sugenoya, Junichi; Shimizu, Yuuki; Nishimura, Naoki; Inukai, Yoko; Iwase, Satoshi

2013-09-01

Obese subjects may be more vulnerable to injury from heat stress, and appear to be less efficient at thermoregulation. Sweat rate, tympanic temperature and osmolality in obese subjects were investigated in Japan during two seasons. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between obesity, thermoregulatory response and season. Five obese (BMI, 32.0 ± 4.9 kg/m2) and five non-obese (BMI, 23.2 ± 2.9 kg/m2) men participated in this experiment at latitude 35°10' N and longitude 136°57.9'E. The average atmospheric temperature was 29.1 ± 1.0 °C in summer and 3.3 ± 1.4 °C in winter. Tympanic temperature and sweat rate were measured during leg water immersion at 42 °C for 30 min. Blood samples were analyzed for plasma osmolality. The relationship between tympanic temperature and sweat rate decreased significantly in obese compared to in non-obese subjects in both seasons, there being a lowered sweat rate for any core temperature in obese subjects. Plasma osmolality was significantly higher in obese than in non-obese subjects in both seasons. Thermal sensation increased significantly in non-obese than in obese in winter but not in summer. Our data show that thermoregulatory responses are attenuated in obese subjects compared with controls, suggesting that obese people are at increased risk of heat-related illnesses.

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.

2016-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.

A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input.

PubMed

Lee, Cameron C; Sheridan, Scott C

2018-07-01

Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975-2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6-24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34-71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0-2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2-4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water, ice, and meteorological measurements at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance year 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

2004-01-01

Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance year 2002. The 2002 glacier-average maximum winter snow balance was 4.02 meters, the second largest since 1959. The 2002 glacier summer, net, and annual (water year) balances were -3.47, 0.55, and 0.54 meters, respectively. The area of the glacier near the end of the balance year was 1.92 square kilometers, and the equilibrium-line altitude and the accumulation area ratio were 1,820 meters and 0.84, respectively. During September 20, 2001 to September 13, 2002, the terminus retreated 4 meters, and computed average ice speeds in the ablation area ranged from 7.8 to 20.7 meters per year. Runoff from the subbasin containing the glacier and from an adjacent non-glacierized basin were measured during part of the 2002 water year. Air temperature, precipitation, atmospheric water-vapor pressure, wind speed and incoming solar radiation were measured at selected locations near the glacier.

Ice processes affect habitat use and movements of adult cutthroat trout and brook trout in a Wyoming foothills stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindstrom, J.W.; Hubert, W.A.

2004-01-01

Habitat use and movements of 25 adult cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii and 25 adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis from fall through winter 2002-2003 were assessed by means of radiotelemetry in a 7-km reach of a Rocky Mountains foothills stream. Temporal dynamics of winter habitat conditions were evaluated by regularly measuring the features of 30 pools and 5 beaver Castor canadensis ponds in the study reach. Groundwater inputs at three locations raised mean daily water temperatures in the stream channel during winter to 0.2-0.6??C and kept at least 250 m of the downstream channel free of ice, but the lack of surface ice further downstream led to the occurrence of frazil ice and anchor ice in pools and unstable habitat conditions for trout. Pools in segments that were not affected by groundwater inputs and beaver ponds tended to be stable and snow accumulated on the surface ice. Pools throughout the study reach tended to become more stable as snow accumulated. Both cutthroat trout and brook trout selected beaver ponds as winter progressed but tended to use lateral scour pools in proportion to their availability. Tagged fish not in beaver ponds selected lateral scour pools that were deeper than average and stable during winter. Movement frequencies by tagged fish decreased from fall through winter, but some individuals of both species moved during winter. Ice processes affected both the habitat use and movement patterns of cutthroat trout and brook trout in this foothills stream.

Atmospheric components of the surface energy budget over young sea ice: Results from the N-ICE2015 campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walden, Von P.; Hudson, Stephen R.; Cohen, Lana; Murphy, Sarah Y.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-08-01

The Norwegian young sea ice campaign obtained the first measurements of the surface energy budget over young, thin Arctic sea ice through the seasonal transition from winter to summer. This campaign was the first of its kind in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. This study describes the atmospheric and surface conditions and the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes over young, thin sea ice. The shortwave albedo of the snow surface ranged from about 0.85 in winter to 0.72-0.80 in early summer. The near-surface atmosphere was typically stable in winter, unstable in spring, and near neutral in summer once the surface skin temperature reached 0°C. The daily average radiative and turbulent heat fluxes typically sum to negative values (-40 to 0 W m-2) in winter but then transition toward positive values of up to nearly +60 W m-2 as solar radiation contributes significantly to the surface energy budget. The sensible heat flux typically ranges from +20-30 W m-2 in winter (into the surface) to negative values between 0 and -20 W m-2 in spring and summer. A winter case study highlights the significant effect of synoptic storms and demonstrates the complex interplay of wind, clouds, and heat and moisture advection on the surface energy components over sea ice in winter. A spring case study contrasts a rare period of 24 h of clear-sky conditions with typical overcast conditions and highlights the impact of clouds on the surface radiation and energy budgets over young, thin sea ice.

A new meteorological record for Cádiz (Spain) 1806-1852: Implications for climatic reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, David; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Calvo, Natalia; Ribera, Pedro

2007-06-01

A new documentary source of data for wind, atmospheric pressure and air temperature for the city of Cádiz (southern Spain) has been abstracted, analyzed and compared with present-day data. Wind records cover the period 1806-1852 with three observations per day. Instrumental pressure and temperature cover the period 1825-1852. While the historical pressure series shows average values very close to that found for the period 1971-2000, temperature shows a large asymmetric seasonal warming, with increments in the order of 2°C for the winter months and almost no change for summer. Wind measurements have been transformed into their numerical equivalents and then compared with present-day values. The analysis shows that the numerical estimation of ancient wind forces observed at Cádiz, while providing a robust climatic signal, has a strong bias to larger values than their instrumental equivalents. Despite the uncertainties involved in the interpretation of early wind series, this effect could be related to the recording of "average wind gusts" rather than average winds as measured by today's anemometers. In consequence, wind climatologies based on historical data, which recently are becoming available to the scientific community, should be used carefully.

Frost risk for overwintering crops in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Weih, Martin

2013-04-01

Climate change scenarios predict a general increase in daily temperatures and a decline in snow cover duration. On the one hand, higher temperature in fall and spring may facilitate the development of overwintering crops and allow the expansion of winter cropping in locations where the growing season is currently too short. On the other hand, higher temperatures prior to winter crop dormancy slow down frost hardening, enhancing crop vulnerability to temperature fluctuation. Such vulnerability may be exacerbated by reduced snow cover, with potential further negative impacts on yields in extremely low temperatures. We propose a parsimonious probabilistic model to quantify the winter frost damage risk for overwintering crops, based on a coupled model of air temperature, snow cover, and crop minimum tolerable temperature. The latter is determined by crop features, previous history of temperature, and snow cover. The temperature-snow cover model is tested against meteorological data collected over 50 years in Sweden and applied to winter wheat varieties differing in their ability to acquire frost resistance. Hence, exploiting experimental results assessing crop frost damage under limited temperature and snow cover realizations, this probabilistic framework allows the quantification of frost risk for different crop varieties, including in full temperature and precipitation unpredictability. Climate change scenarios are explored to quantify the effects of changes in temperature mean and variance and precipitation regime over crops differing in winter frost resistance and response to temperature.

A search for solar related changes in tropospheric weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohanakumar, K.

1989-01-01

The possibility that solar variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle may be the cause of the changes in tropospheric weather and climate has been the subject to scientific investigation for several decades. Meteorologists are greatly concerned with the changes in tropospheric phenomena. An attempt was made to find solar activity related changes in tropospheric weather, by the modulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind at 50 mb. Rainfall and surface temperature data for a period of about three solar cycles, 1953 to 1988, from various stations in the Indian subcontinent were utilized. By extension, a possible teleconnection was looked for between the temperature changes in middle atmospheric levels and surface temperature when the data are stratified according to east or west phase of the QBO. The temperature data were averaged for January and February to represent the winter temperature and for July and August to represent the summer temperature.

Characterization of PM2.5 and identification of transported secondary and biomass burning contribution in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yumi; Seo, Jihoon; Kim, Jin Young; Lee, Ji Yi; Kim, Hwajin; Kim, Bong Mann

2018-02-01

The chemical and seasonal characteristics of fine particulates in Seoul, Korea, were investigated based on 24-h integrated PM 2.5 measurements made over four 1-month periods in each season between October 2012 and September 2013. The four-season average concentration of PM 2.5 was 37 μg m -3 , and the major chemical components were secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) species of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (49%), followed by organic matter (34%). The mass concentration and most of the chemical components of PM 2.5 showed clear seasonal variation, with a winter-high and summer-low pattern. The winter-to-summer sulfate ratio and the winter organic carbon (OC)-to-elemental carbon (EC) ratio were unusually high compared with those in previous studies. Strong correlations of both the sulfate level and the sulfur oxidation ratio with relative humidity, and between water-soluble OC (WSOC) and SIA in winter, suggest the importance of aqueous phase chemistry for secondary aerosols. A strong correlation between non-sea salt sulfate and Na + levels, a high Cl - /Na + ratio, and an unusual positive correlation between the nitrogen oxidation ratio and temperature during the winter indicate the influence of transported secondary emission sources from upwind urban areas and from China across the Yellow Sea. Despite the absence of local forest fires and the regulation of wood burning, a high levoglucosan concentration and its correlations with OC and WSOC indicate that Seoul was affected by biomass burning sources in the winter. The unusually high water-insoluble OC (WIOC)-to-EC ratio in winter implies additional transported combustion sources of WIOC. The strong correlation between WIOC and levoglucosan suggests the likely influence of transported biomass burning sources on the high WIOC/EC ratio during the winter.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Study of the lower stratospheric thermal structure and total ozone from Nimbus-4 IRIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.

1976-01-01

The global distribution of temperature in the stratosphere from 100 to 10 mbar and the total ozone in the atmosphere are remotely sensed from the Nimbus-4 IRIS measurements for a period of about one year. The temperature and ozone data are presented in the form of monthly mean global maps. The standard deviations of temperature and ozone with respect to zonal averages are calculated. The mean and the variable state of the stratosphere are discussed with the help of these observations. The lower stratosphere in the tropical regions reveals a significant wave number one pattern in the circulation. The Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric winter circulation regimes display a different behavior apparently due to the ocean and orographic differences.

Fluorescence fingerprinting properties for exploring water-soluble organic compounds in PM2.5 in an industrial city of northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Juanjuan; Zhang, Leiming; Zhou, Xueming; Duan, Jingchun; Mu, Situ; Xiao, Kang; Hu, Jingnan; Tan, Jihua

2018-07-01

Excitation-emission matrix (EEM) spectra were used to analyze the fluorescence properties of water-soluble organic compounds (WSOC) in PM2.5 during winter and summer seasons in Lanzhou city, northwest China. Protein-like substances, humic-like substances and microbial by-products were found to be the main fluorophoric organic matter. Humification index (HIX), biological index (BIX) and fluorescence index (FI) were 1.2 ± 0.1, 1.4 ± 0.1 and 1.7 ± 0.2 in winter and 2.0 ± 0.3, 1.3 ± 0.1 and 1.2 ± 0.4 in summer, respectively, indicating higher aromaticity of WSOC in summer and terrestrial biogenic sources of WSOC in both seasons. Strong correlations were found between regional average fluorescence intensities (RAFI) at the fluorescence regions of II-V and water-soluble inorganic ions (K+, Cl-, NO3- and SO42-) in winter with the Spearman correlation coefficients ρ being larger than 0.7 and mostly around 0.9, suggesting significant contributions of bioaerosols, coal combustion and vehicle exhaust to PM2.5. Moderate correlations were found between RAFI and K+, Cl-, and NO3- in summer, indicating the more important roles of biogenic and vehicle exhaust than coal combustion sources in summer. High temperature in winter was conducive to and in summer prohibitive to polycondensation of WSOC, indicating the existence of an optimum temperature for such a process to occur. High relative humidity was unfavorable to the formation of fluorescent WSOC.

Wintering birds avoid warm sunshine: predation and the costs of foraging in sunlight.

PubMed

Carr, Jennie M; Lima, Steven L

2014-03-01

Wintering birds can gain significant thermal benefits by foraging in direct sunlight. However, exposure to bright sunlight might make birds easier to detect by predators and may also cause visual glare that can reduce a bird's ability to monitor the environment. Thus, birds likely experience a trade-off between the thermal benefits and predation-related costs of foraging in direct sunlight. To examine this possible thermoregulation-predation trade-off, we monitored the behavior of mixed-species flocks of wintering emberizid sparrows foraging in alternating strips of sunlight and shade. On average, these sparrows routinely preferred to forage in the shade, despite midday air temperatures as much as 30 °C below their thermoneutral zone. This preference for shade was strongest at relatively high temperatures when the thermal benefits of foraging in sunlight were reduced, suggesting a thermoregulation-predation trade-off. Glare could be reduced if birds faced away from the sun while feeding in direct sunlight, but we found that foraging birds tended to face southward (the direction of the sun). We speculate that other factors, such as the likely direction of predator approach, may explain this southerly orientation, particularly if predators use solar glare to their advantage during an attack. This interpretation is supported by the fact that birds had the weakest southerly orientation on cloudy days. Wintering birds may generally avoid foraging in direct sunlight to minimize their risk of predation. However, given the thermal benefits of sunshine, such birds may benefit from foraging in habitats that provide a mosaic of sunlit and shaded microhabitats.

Conditions to generate Steam Fog Occurred around the Chungju Lake in the South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byungwoo, J.

2017-12-01

We have collected the field observation data of the steam fog occurred around the Chungju Lake in the South Korea for 3 years(2014 2016) and analyzed conditions in which the steam fog occurred. The Chungju Lake is an artificial lake made by the Chungju Dam with a water storage of 2.7 billion tons, which is the second largest in South Korea. The Chungju Dam have discharged water of the average 2.2 million tons downstream to produce electricity per day. The drainage water heats downstream of the Chungju dam and the air above water surface of downstream of that. When the warm, humid air above the downstream water mixed with cold air mass, it caused "steam fog" around the downstream of Chungju lake regardless of amount of the discharged water. The condition that promote the generation of steam fog in autumn and winter is as follows: (1) cloudless night with light winds below 1.5 m/s. (2) The differences between the temperature of discharged water from the Chungju Dam and the air temperature above the discharged water varied from 3° to 15° in autumn, from 15° to 20° in winter respectively. (3) When stream fog was generated, sensible heat flux ranged in autumn from 5 to 15 W/m2, in winter from 15 to 20 W/m2 respectively. Latent heat flux ranged in autumn from 15 to 20 W/m2, in winter from 10 to 15 W/m2 respectively.

2008 Volunteer Potato Outlook

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potato tubers left in the ground following a potato harvest often over winter in regions with mild winter temperatures resulting in a serious and difficult to manage weed problem in the ensuing crop rotation. Potatoes normally are killed when they reach temperatures below 28° F. Winter soil tempera...

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Energy Efficiency Upgrades for the Clinic and the Tannery and Wind Energy for Power to the Tannery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kakoona, Jane; Fredenberg, Connie

2017-05-08

Under this grant agreement, the Native Village of Shishmaref (Shishmaref) will complete weatherization retrofits to two community buildings, the Clinic and the Tannery, based on recent energy audits. Located 5 miles from the mainland, 126 miles north of Nome and 100 miles south of Kotzebue, Shishmaref sits on Sarichef Island in the Chukchi Sea. As such, Shishmaref experiences a transitional climate between the frozen Arctic and the continental Interior. Summers can be foggy, with average temperatures ranging from 47 to 54 °F (Fahrenheit); winter temperatures average -12 to 2 °F. With heating fuel costs of almost $7/gallon, the goal ofmore » this project is to reduce energy costs at the Clinic and the Tannery by at least 30 to 50% through energy efficiency and weatherization measures and through the installation of a residential-size wind turbine to supplement power for the Tannery building.« less

Turtles (Chelodina longicollis) regulate muscle metabolic enzyme activity in response to seasonal variation in body temperature.

PubMed

Seebacher, F; Sparrow, J; Thompson, M B

2004-04-01

Fluctuations in the thermal environment may elicit different responses in animals: migration to climatically different areas, regulation of body temperature, modification of biochemical reaction rates, or assuming a state of dormancy. Many ectothermic reptiles are active over a range of body temperatures that vary seasonally. Here we test the hypothesis that metabolic enzyme activity acclimatises seasonally in freshwater turtles (Chelodina longicollis) in addition to, or instead of, behavioural regulation of body temperatures. We measured body temperatures in free-ranging turtles (n = 3) by radiotelemetry, and we assayed phosphofructokinase (PFK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), citrate synthase (CS) and cytochrome c oxidase (CCO) activities in early autumn (March, n = 10 turtles), late autumn (May, n = 7) and mid-winter (July, n = 7) over a range of assay temperatures (10 degrees C, 15 degrees C, 20 degrees C, 25 degrees C). Body temperatures were either not different from, or higher than expected from a theoretical null-distribution of a randomly moving animal. Field body temperatures at any season were lower, however, than expected from animals that maximised their sun exposure. Turtles maintained constant PFK, LDH and CCO activities in different months, despite body temperature differences of nearly 13.0 degrees C between March (average daily body temperature = 24.4 degrees C) and July (average = 11.4 degrees C). CS activity did not vary between March and May (average daily body temperature = 20.2 degrees C), but it decreased in July. Thus C. longicollis use a combination of behavioural thermoregulation and biochemical acclimatisation in response to seasonally changing thermal conditions. Ectothermic reptiles were often thought not to acclimatise biochemically, and our results show that behavioural attainment of a preferred body temperature is not mandatory for activity or physiological performance in turtles. Copyright 2004 Springer-Verlag

Seasonal geomorphic processes and rates of sand movement at Mount Baldy dune in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilibarda, Zoran; Kilibarda, Vesna

2016-12-01

Winds are very strong, frequent, and have high energy (annual DP ∼800 VU) along the southern shores of Lake Michigan, allowing the coexistence of fixed and active dunes. Six years (2007-13) of monitoring Mount Baldy in the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore reveals that this is the most active coastal dune in the Great Lakes region. This paper documents aeolian processes and changes in the dune's morphology that occur temporarily, following storms, or seasonally, due to weather (climate) variations. Most of the sand transport in this area takes place during strong storms with gale force (>17.5 m/s) winds, which occur in the autumn and winter months. A single storm, such as the October 28-31, 2013 event, can contribute 25% of the annual sand transport and dune movement inland. In its most active year (June 1, 2011 through May 31, 2012), Mount Baldy moved inland on average 4.34 m, with a maximum of 6.52 m along the blowout's axis (155° azimuth). During this particularly active season, there were six storms with sustained gale force winds, winter air temperatures were warmer than average, and shelf ice on Lake Michigan lasted only one day. The dune is least active during the summer season, when the winds are weakest. The late fall and winter winds are the strongest. But in a typical year, most of the dune's advance inland takes place during the spring thaw when sand is released from over-steepened and lumpy slip face, allowing it to avalanche to the toe of the slip face. However, with a warming air temperatures, a reduction in the duration of winter shelf ice, and rising Lake Michigan levels, the annual rates of sand transport and dune movement may increase. The recent Mount Baldy management strategy, which includes planting vegetation and installing wind barriers on the dune's stoss side in an effort to fix the dune and stop its further movement inland, may potentially cause the destruction of the mobile sand, open dune habitat, resulting in the extinction of rare plants, insects, lizards, birds, and mammals.

Effects of environmental temperature and season on hair coat characteristics, physiologic and reproductive parameters in Shetland pony stallions.

PubMed

Schmidt, Kathrin; Deichsel, Katharina; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Arruda; Aurich, Jörg; Ille, Natascha; Aurich, Christine

2017-07-15

We hypothesized that housing of stallions in a thermoneutral temperature zone during autumn and winter does not only influence metabolism and hair shedding but also improves the characteristics of raw and processed semen. Fertile Shetland pony stallions were followed from October to June. This time coincided with the seasons autumn, winter and spring. Ponies were kept in outside paddocks (group CON, n = 8) or in indoor stables (group ST, n = 8) from October to March when ST stallions returned to outdoor paddocks, but ponies remained in the same groups. The rectal temperature was measured once weekly. Heart rate, heart rate variability, testosterone and cortisol concentration in blood as well as quality and length of the coat were determined. Semen was collected once weekly and raw semen characteristics were analyzed. The characteristics of cooled-stored and cryopreserved semen were determined once monthly. During the stabling period, environmental temperature for group ST averaged 13.6 ± 2.3 and for group CON 5.6 ± 4.2 °C. The mean rectal temperature was higher (p < 0.05) in ST than in CON stallions. All hair coat parameters underwent seasonal changes (p < 0.001) and differed between groups (p < 0.05) with shorter guard hair, slower hair regrowth and earlier hair change in ST stallions. Season influenced heart rate which was highest in autumn, lowest in winter and intermediate in spring but did not differ between groups. Testosterone and cortisol concentrations in blood as well as sexual behavior underwent seasonal changes but did not differ between CON and ST stallions. Gel-free semen volume and total sperm count were influenced by season (p < 0.01) and showed a more pronounced increase from winter to spring in CON than in ST stallions (p < 0.05) while no differences with regard to sperm concentration in raw semen were detected. Progressive motility of spermatozoa in raw semen was highest in spring (p < 0.05) but not affected by group. In cooled-stored and cryopreserved semen, neither season nor group affected total motility, progressive motility or membrane integrity. In conclusion, environmental temperature during autumn and winter had clear results on body temperature as well as hair coat characteristics in Shetland stallions. Simultaneously determined effects on semen characteristics were minimal indicating that reproductive function in the horse is more dependent on day length i.e. the geophysical year than on other environmental factors. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

2014-05-01

Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the temperature relationships of the bacterial community from winter-warmed plots and plots with ambient soil temperatures were compared. No change in optimum temperature for growth could be detected, indicating that the microbial community has not been warm-adapted. This fits with what was seen also in the laboratory experiment where no changes in temperature response occurred when exposing bacteria to temperatures below 10 °C within two months. The increase in activity measured during winter should thereby be due to changes in environmental factors, which will be further investigated. One big difference between heated and control plots was that heated plots were snow free during the entire winter, while control plots were covered by a 10 cm snow cover. The plant community composition and flowering time also differed in the warmed and ambient plot.

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing.

PubMed

Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'en; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

2016-01-12

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian'En; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

2016-01-01

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

PubMed Central

Dong, Weihua; Li, Xian’en; Yang, Peng; Liao, Hua; Wang, Xiaoli; Wang, Quanyi

2016-01-01

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16. PMID:26755102

Mainstem Clearwater River Study: Assessment for Salmonid Spawning, Incubation, and Rearing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conner, William P.

1989-01-01

Chinook salmon reproduced naturally in the Clearwater River until damming of the lower mainstem in 1927 impeded upstream spawning migrations and decimated the populations. Removal of the Washington Water Power Dam in 1973 reopened upriver passage. This study was initiated to determine the feasibility of re-introducing chinook salmon into the lower mainstem Clearwater River based on the temperature and flow regimes, water quality, substrate, and invertebrate production since the completion of Dworshak Dam in 1972. Temperature data obtained from the United States Geological Survey gaging stations at Peck and Spalding, Idaho, were used to calculate average minimum and maximum watermore » temperature on a daily, monthly and yearly basis. The coldest and warmest (absolute minimum and maximum) temperatures that have occurred in the past 15 years were also identified. Our analysis indicates that average lower mainstem Clearwater River water temperatures are suitable for all life stages of chinook salmon, and also for steelhead trout rearing. In some years absolute maximum water temperatures in late summer may postpone adult staging and spawning. Absolute minimum temperatures have been recorded that could decrease overwinter survival of summer chinook juveniles and fall chinook eggs depending on the quality of winter hiding cover and the prevalence of intra-gravel freezing in the lower mainstem Clearwater River.« less

Denitrification and nitrification in the Arctic stratosphere during the winter of 1996-1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondo, Y.; Irie, H.; Koike, M.; Bodeker, G. E.

2000-02-01

The concentrations of HNO3, N2O, ozone, and aerosol in the lower stratosphere inside the Arctic vortex were observed by the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer (ILAS) in the winter of 1996-1997. These data demonstrate that irreversible loss of reactive nitrogen by sedimentation of HNO3 containing particles (denitrification) at 18-23 km occurred in mid-late February soon after the Arctic vortex cooled below ice saturation temperature (TICE). Denitrification exceeding 40% was observed only in air masses which experienced temperature below TICE. It occurred within 2 days in some of these air masses. Increases in HNO3 by evaporation of the particles (nitrification) at 13-15 km occurred 0-3 days after denitrification was observed, indicating particle radii of 5-10 µm or larger. It is likely that these particles were composed of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) or NAT-coated ice particles, given that the temperatures below 16 km were higher than TICE. Continued exposure of air masses below NAT saturation temperature for 1-4 days did not lead to any significant denitrification as long as the temperature did not fall below TICE, indicating that possible nucleation of NAT at these temperatures within 4 days did not play a significant role in causing denitrification. There was little change in the average HNO3 column from February 11 to 28 since HNO3 decreases at 18-23 km were almost completely offset by increases at 12-17 km.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

PubMed Central

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-01-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. PMID:25788025

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.

PubMed

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-06-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Titan's Atmospheric Dynamics and Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flasar, F. M.; Baines, K. H.; Bird, M. K.; Tokano, T.; West, R. A.

2008-01-01

Titan, after Venus, is the second example of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation in the solar system, but a circulation that has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere. Direct measurement of Titan's winds, particularly observations tracking the Huygens probe at 10degS, indicate that the zonal winds are generally in the sense of the satellites rotation. They become cyclostrophic approx. 35 km above the surface and generally increase with altitude, with the exception of a sharp minimum centered near 75 km, where the wind velocity decreases to nearly zero. Zonal winds derived from the temperature field retrieved from Cassini measurements, using the thermal wind equation, indicate a strong winter circumpolar vortex, with maximum winds at mid northern latitudes of 190 ms-' near 300 km. Above this level, the vortex decays. Curiously, the zonal winds and temperatures are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by approx.4 degrees. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the offset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the solar equator. The mean meridional circulation can be inferred from the temperature field and the meridional distribution of organic molecules and condensates and hazes. Both the warm temperatures in the north polar region near 400 km and the enhanced concentration of several organic molecules suggests subsidence there during winter and early spring. Stratospheric condensates are localized at high northern latitudes, with a sharp cut-off near 50degN. Titan's winter polar vortex appears to share many of the same characteristics of winter vortices on Earth-the ozone holes. Global mapping of temperatures, winds, and composition in he troposphere, by contrast, is incomplete. The few suitable discrete clouds that have bee found for tracking indicate smaller velocities than aloft, consistent with the Huygens measurements. At low latitudes the zonal winds near the surface appear not to be westward as on Earth, but eastward. Because the net zonal-mean time-averaged torq exerted by the surface on the atmosphere should vanish, this implies westward flow o part of the surface; the question is where. The latitude contrast in tropospheric temperatures, deduced from radio occultations at low, mid, and high latitudes, is small approx.5 K at the tropopause and approx.3 K at the surface.

Surface climate responses to explosive volcanic eruptions seen in long European temperature records and mid-to-high latitude tree-ring density around the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, P. D.; Moberg, A.; Osborn, T. J.; Briffa, K. R.

Explosive volcanic eruptions are known to have an impact on surface temperatures in the two to three years after the eruption, but our ability to determine the impact is impeded by the paucity of eruptions (3-5 large events each century). We examine the response to large eruptions in instrumental temperature records for the whole Northern Hemisphere (NH) and longer European records using superposed epoch analysis. Despite the limited number of eruptions we separate the volcanoes into two groups: tropical and mid-to-high northern latitude (>40°N). The clearest response is after tropical eruptions, where the NH land temperature average cools significantly in the summer months up to three years after the eruptions, although the timing of the response differs markedly from eruption to eruption. Extending the analysis to three European regions (Fennoscandia, Central England and Central Europe) with longer temperature records shows weakly significant summer cooling after tropical eruptions over Fennoscandia, but no discernible impacts in the other two regions. The Fennoscandian series also indicates slight warming in the first, second and fourth winters (but not the third) following the eruptions, but the significance level is not reached. The lack of statistical significance (in the regional series for both summer and winter) is principally due to the greater variability of the regional series compared to the NH land temperature average, with the small number of eruptions being a contributory factor. After higher latitude eruptions significant cooling is restricted to the late summer in the NH during the eruption year, with little of significance in the longer European regional series. We also assess longer records of tree-ring density from the mid-to-high latitude regions of the NH. This analysis further highlights the dearth of major eruptions (about 20 in the last 600 years) and the differences in the spatial patterns of cooling after the eruptions. The response in the NH average of the exactlydated tree-ring density series, however, is of such a unique character, that extremely anomalous negative values can be used to determine when major eruptions occurred in the past, even though the location of the eruption remains unknown for some dates.

Old Growth Conifer Watersheds in the Western Cascades, Oregon: Sentinels of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, K. M.

2011-12-01

In the Pacific Northwest, where the majority of precipitation falls during the winter, mountain snowpacks provide an important source of streamflow during the dry summer months when water demands are frequently highest. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks in western North America, earlier snowmelt, and subsequently a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. Long-term records from headwater watersheds in old growth conifer forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJ Andrews), Oregon, provide the opportunity to examine changes in climate, vegetation, and streamflow. Continuous streamflow records have been collected since 1953, 1964, and 1969 from three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9). Over the 40- to 50-year period of study, late winter to early summer monthly average minimum temperatures have increased by 1-2°C, and spring snow water equivalent at a nearby Snotel site has declined, but monthly precipitation has remained unchanged. Spring runoff ratios have declined in by amounts equivalent to 0.59-2.45 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, which are comparable to estimated rates of stand-level transpiration from trees in these watersheds. However, winter runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS2 or WS9, and have actually decreased at WS8 by 2.43 mm day-1 over the period of record. Furthermore, summer runoff ratios have not changed significantly at either WS8 or WS9, and have increased at WS2 by 0.34 mm day-1 over the period of record. These findings suggest that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks and an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring when soil moisture is abundant, but physiological responses of these conifer forests to water stress and water surplus may mitigate or exceed the expression of a climate warming effect on winter or summer streamflow.

Cold-season temperature in the Swiss Alps from AD 1100-1500; trends, intra-annual variability and forcing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Rixt; Kamenik, Christian; Grosjean, Martin

2010-05-01

To fully understand past climatic changes and their forcing factors, detailed reconstructions of past summer and winter temperatures are required. Winter temperature reconstructions are scarce, however, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. This study presents a detailed reconstruction of winter temperatures based on Chrysophyte stomatocysts, silicious scales formed by so-called 'golden algae'. Previous studies (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005; Pla and Catalan, 2005) have demonstrated the sensitivity of these algae to cold-season temperatures. Chrysophyte stomatocyst analysis was carried out on varved sediments from Lake Silvaplana (1791 m a.s.l.) at annual to near-annual resolution for two periods; AD 1100-1500 and AD 1870-2004. For both periods the reference date 'date of spring mixing' (Smix) was reconstructed using a transfer function developed for the Austrian Alps (Kamenik and Schmidt, 2005). In the Austrian Alps, Smix was primarily driven by air temperature in the cold season. The strength of stomatocysts as a proxy for winter temperature was tested by directly comparing reconstructed Smix with measured temperatures from nearby meteostation Sils Maria for the period AD 1870 - 2004. Correlation was highest (R = -0.6; p < 0.001) with mean October-April temperatures. The good agreement between reconstructed Smix and mean winter temperatures was interrupted only from AD 1925 - AD 1951, which was related to exceptionally high winter precipitation (thick snowpack) extending the ice-covered period. Strong lake eutrophication after AD 1950 only weakly affected the reconstruction of winter temperature. The winter temperature reconstruction (AD 1100-1500) shows strong interdecadal variability, superimposed on a cooling trend from around AD 1400 onwards. A direct comparison to summer temperature reconstructions based on biogenic silica and chironomid analysis from the same cores (Trachsel et al., in review; Larocque-Tobler et al., accepted manuscript) indicated strong fluctuations in intra-annual variability. A comparison to forcing factors shows that throughout the studied period, large tropical volcanic eruptions (Crowley, 2000) coincided with relatively warm winters in the study area. This is consistent with results from GCM experiments and observations of the limited number of eruptions during the much shorter instrumental period (Fischer et al., 2007). References: T. Crowley. Science 289, 270-277 (2000) E. Fischer et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L05707 (2007) C. Kamenik and R. Schmidt. Boreas 34, 477-489 (2005) I. Larocque-Tobler et al. Quat. Sci. Rev., accepted. S. Pla and J. Catalan. Clim. Dyn. 24, 263-278 (2005) M. Trachsel et al. Manuscript in review

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Shubert, S.; Starr, David OC.; Susskind, J.; Wu, M.-L. C.

2002-01-01

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Winter severity and phenology of spring emergence from the nest in freshwater turtles.

PubMed

Baker, Patrick Joseph; Iverson, John B; Lee, Richard E; Costanzo, Jon P

2010-07-01

Although many species of freshwater turtles emigrate to water soon after hatching, the offspring of some species overwinter on land and move to aquatic habitats in the following spring. Timing of emigration can affect the hatchlings' fitness, but the factors underlying phenology of nest emergence are incompletely understood. We tested the supposition that cold stress imposed during hibernation can influence the timing of nest emergence in three species of turtles in the central USA. In each year of the 6-year study, Chrysemys picta emerged in late March and early April and, on average, these hatchlings left their nests 2 weeks earlier than those of Graptemys geographica and 4 weeks earlier than those of Trachemys scripta. Emergence of conspecific hatchlings from different nests usually occurred over 3-7 weeks, but in some years lasted several additional weeks. Relatively few nests had siblings that emerged on the same day (i.e., synchronously); complete emergence of the typical sibling group required 1 to 2 weeks. In winter, subzero cold occurred with regularity in the nests of all species, though C. picta experienced the lowest temperatures owing to their shallower nests. However, for no species did emergence date or length of the emergence period correlate with winter minimum temperature and, at the level of the individual nest, neither did emergence synchrony or duration. Despite encountering lower temperatures, hatchlings of C. picta emigrated from their nests before those of sympatric species, suggesting that the fitness benefits of early emergence may lead to the improvement of cold-hardiness adaptations in northern populations of turtles.

Winter severity and phenology of spring emergence from the nest in freshwater turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Patrick Joseph; Iverson, John B.; Lee, Richard E.; Costanzo, Jon P.

2010-07-01

Although many species of freshwater turtles emigrate to water soon after hatching, the offspring of some species overwinter on land and move to aquatic habitats in the following spring. Timing of emigration can affect the hatchlings’ fitness, but the factors underlying phenology of nest emergence are incompletely understood. We tested the supposition that cold stress imposed during hibernation can influence the timing of nest emergence in three species of turtles in the central USA. In each year of the 6-year study, Chrysemys picta emerged in late March and early April and, on average, these hatchlings left their nests 2 weeks earlier than those of Graptemys geographica and 4 weeks earlier than those of Trachemys scripta. Emergence of conspecific hatchlings from different nests usually occurred over 3-7 weeks, but in some years lasted several additional weeks. Relatively few nests had siblings that emerged on the same day (i.e., synchronously); complete emergence of the typical sibling group required 1 to 2 weeks. In winter, subzero cold occurred with regularity in the nests of all species, though C. picta experienced the lowest temperatures owing to their shallower nests. However, for no species did emergence date or length of the emergence period correlate with winter minimum temperature and, at the level of the individual nest, neither did emergence synchrony or duration. Despite encountering lower temperatures, hatchlings of C. picta emigrated from their nests before those of sympatric species, suggesting that the fitness benefits of early emergence may lead to the improvement of cold-hardiness adaptations in northern populations of turtles.

Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.

PubMed

Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L

2017-07-01

Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Selected meteorological data for an arid site near Beatty, Nye County, Nevada, calendar years 1990 and 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, James L.; Andraski, Brian J.

1995-01-01

Selected meteorological data were collected at a study site adjacent to a low-level radioactive-waste burial facility near Beatty, Nevada, for calendar years 1990 and 1991. Data were collected in support of ongoing studies to estimate the potential for downward movement of radionuclides into the unsaturated sediments beneath waste-burial trenches at the facility. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, incident solar radiation, windspeed, wind direction, barometric pressure, and precipitation. The data are summarized in tables and graphs.Instrumentation used at the site is discussed. The discussion includes the type, reported accuracy, and mounting height of each sensor.In 1990, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -16.2 degrees Celsius, in December, to 44.2 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from 6 percent to more than 90 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.08 to 1.84 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 192 to 1,028 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from less than 1 to 8.7 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Hourly barometric pressures ranged from 99.47 to 103.12 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1990 was 32.4 millimeters; almost 45 percent was in September.In 1991, the average hourly air temperatures ranged from -9.2 degrees Celsius, in January, to 43.7 degrees Celsius, in July. Hourly averaged relative humidity ranged from 3 percent to more than 95 percent. Hourly vapor pressures ranged from 0.07 to 2.22 kilopascals. Daily maximum incident solar radiation values ranged from 143 to 1,041 watts per square meter. Daily mean windspeed ranged from 1.2 to 8.4 meters per second. Wind direction was primarily from the northwest in fall, winter, and spring and varied from southeast, southwest, or northwest during the summer. Hourly barometric pressures ranged from 99.52 to 103.40 kilopascals. Total precipitation for 1991 was 103.6 millimeters; almost 60 percent was in March.

Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

PubMed

Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

2017-07-01

Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ying

2017-04-01

Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

Measured Performance of a Low Temperature Air Source Heat Pump

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, R. K.

2013-09-01

A 4-ton Low Temperature Heat Pump (LTHP) manufactured by Hallowell International was installed in a residence near New Haven, Connecticut and monitored over two winters of operation. After attending to some significant service issues, the heat pump operated as designed. This report should be considered a review of the dual compressor 'boosted heat pump' technology. The Low Temperature Heat Pumpsystem operates with four increasing levels of capacity (heat output) as the outdoor temperature drops. The system was shown to select capacity correctly, supplying the appropriate amount of heat to the house across the full range of outdoor temperatures. The system'smore » Coefficient of Performance (Seasonal COP, or SCOP) over two entire winters was calculated, based on measured data, to be 3.29over the first winter and 2.68 over the second winter. A second seasonal efficiency calculation by a different method yielded a SCOP of 2.78 for the first winter and 2.83 for the second winter. This second seasonal efficiency calculation was determined by comparing measured heat pump energy use to the in situ energy use with resistance heat alone. This method is the ratio of the slopes of thedaily energy use load lines.« less

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedgbrow, C. S.; Wilby, R. L.; Fox, H. R.; O'Hare, G.

2002-02-01

Future climate change scenarios suggest enhanced temporal and spatial gradients in water resources across the UK. Provision of seasonal forecast statistics for surface climate variables could alleviate some negative effects of climate change on water resource infrastructure. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale North Atlantic climatic indices, drought severity and river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Potentially useful predictive relationships are explored between winter indices of the Polar-Eurasian (POL) teleconnection pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), and the summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and reconstructed river flows in England and Wales. Correlation analyses, coherence testing and an index of forecast potential, demonstrate that preceding winter values of the POL index, SSTA (and to a lesser extent the NAO), provide indications of summer and early autumn drought severity and river flow anomalies in parts of northwest, southwest and southeast England. Correlation analyses demonstrate that positive winter anomalies of T1, POL index and NAO index are associated with negative PDSI (i.e. drought) across eastern parts of the British Isles in summer (r < 0.51). Coherence tests show that a positive winter SSTA (1871-1995) and POL index (1950-95) have preceded below-average summer river flows in the northwest and southwest of England and Wales in 70 to 100% of summers. The same rivers have also experienced below-average flows during autumn following negative winter phases of the NAO index in 64 to 93% of summers (1865-1995). Possible explanations for the predictor-predictand relationships are considered, including the memory of groundwater, and ocean-atmosphere coupling, and regional manifestations of synoptic rainfall processes. However, further research is necessary to increase the number of years and predictor variables from which it is possible to derive rules that may be useful for forecasting.

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Assessing conditions influencing the longitudinal distribution of exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a mountain stream: a spatially-explicit modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meredith, Christy S.; Budy, Phaedra; Hooten, Mevin B.; Oliveira Prates, Marcos

2017-01-01

Trout species often segregate along elevational gradients, yet the mechanisms driving this pattern are not fully understood. On the Logan River, Utah, USA, exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) dominate at low elevations but are near-absent from high elevations with native Bonneville cutthroat trout (Onchorhynchus clarkii utah). We used a spatially-explicit Bayesian modeling approach to evaluate how abiotic conditions (describing mechanisms related to temperature and physical habitat) as well as propagule pressure explained the distribution of brown trout in this system. Many covariates strongly explained redd abundance based on model performance and coefficient strength, including average annual temperature, average summer temperature, gravel availability, distance from a concentrated stocking area, and anchor ice-impeded distance from a concentrated stocking area. In contrast, covariates that exhibited low performance in models and/or a weak relationship to redd abundance included reach-average water depth, stocking intensity to the reach, average winter temperature, and number of days with anchor ice. Even if climate change creates more suitable summer temperature conditions for brown trout at high elevations, our findings suggest their success may be limited by other conditions. The potential role of anchor ice in limiting movement upstream is compelling considering evidence suggesting anchor ice prevalence on the Logan River has decreased significantly over the last several decades, likely in response to climatic changes. Further experimental and field research is needed to explore the role of anchor ice, spawning gravel availability, and locations of historical stocking in structuring brown trout distributions on the Logan River and elsewhere.

[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan

2018-01-01

Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of <2 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of the involved regions as Zhanjiang, Maoming, Guangzhou and Huizhou; and the belt with an accumulated chilling of 8-16 ℃·d covered the major geographic parts of Shaoguan and Meizhou. Meanwhile, the drought days decreased, the belt with drought days ≥50 included the major geographic parts of Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and the belt with drought days <50 included the major geographic parts of Shaoguan. The typical case of the extreme disasters showed that the extreme chilling injury and drought in the main producing regions should not be overlooked. Maoming, Huizhou and Meizhou were at higher risk of extreme chilling injury, followed by Shaoguan and Guangzhou. Zhanjiang and Maoming faced the highest risk of extreme drought, Huizhou and Guangzhou took the second place, Shaoguan and Meizhou went last. During 1997-2015, the heat of winter season increased significantly, the trend of chilling and drought decreased, however, the extreme disasters occurred frequently and the risks were higher in winter production areas. It was suggested that the winter planting should be closely integrated with climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.

Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming

2016-12-01

The stratosphere has been cooling under global warming, the causes of which are not yet well understood. This study applied a process-based decomposition method (CFRAM; Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method) to the simulation results of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model (CCSM4; Community Climate System Model, version 4), to demonstrate the responsible radiative and non-radiative processes involved in the stratospheric cooling. By focusing on the long-term stratospheric temperature changes between the "historical run" and the 8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, this study demonstrates that the changes of radiative radiation due to CO2, ozone and water vapor are the main divers of stratospheric cooling in both winter and summer. They contribute to the cooling changes by reducing the net radiative energy (mainly downward radiation) received by the stratospheric layer. In terms of the global average, their contributions are around -5, -1.5, and -1 K, respectively. However, the observed stratospheric cooling is much weaker than the cooling by radiative processes. It is because changes in atmospheric dynamic processes act to strongly mitigate the radiative cooling by yielding a roughly 4 K warming on the global average base. In particular, the much stronger/weaker dynamic warming in the northern/southern winter extratropics is associated with an increase of the planetary-wave activity in the northern winter, but a slight decrease in the southern winter hemisphere, under global warming. More importantly, although radiative processes dominate the stratospheric cooling, the spatial patterns are largely determined by the non-radiative effects of dynamic processes.

Predicting the Dominant Patterns of Subseasonal Variability of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hai

2018-05-01

Skillfully predicting persistent extreme temperature anomalies more than 10 days in advance remains a challenge although it is of great value to the society. Here the two leading modes of subseasonal variability of surface air temperature over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere in boreal winter are identified with pentad (5 days) averaged data. They are well separated geographically, dominating temperature variability in North America and Eurasia, respectively. There exists a two-pentad lagged correlation between these two modes, implying an intercontinental link of temperature variability. Forecast skill of these two modes is evaluated based on three operational subseasonal prediction models. The results show that useful forecasts of the Eurasian mode (EOF2) can be achieved four pentads in advance, which is more skillful than the North American mode (EOF1). EOF2 is found to benefit from the Madden-Julian Oscillation signal in the initial condition.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Effect of stock size, climate, predation, and trophic status on recruitment of alewives in Lake Ontario, 1978-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Gorman, Robert; Lantry, Brian F.; Schneider, Clifford P.

2004-01-01

The population of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake Ontario is of great concern to fishery managers because alewives are the principal prey of introduced salmonines and because alewives negatively influence many endemic fishes. We used spring bottom trawl catches of alewives to investigate the roles of stock size, climate, predation, and lake trophic status on recruitment of alewives to age 2 in Lake Ontario during 1978–2000. Climate was indexed from the temperature of water entering a south-shore municipal treatment plant, lake trophic status was indexed by the mean concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in surface water in spring, and predation was indexed by the product of the number of salmonines stocked and relative, first-year survival of Chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha. A Ricker-type parent–progeny model suggested that peak production of age-1 alewives could occur over a broad range of spawning stock sizes, and the fit of the model was improved most by the addition of terms for spring water temperature and winter duration. With the addition of the two climate terms, the Ricker model indicated that when water was relatively warm in spring and the winter was relatively short, peak potential production of young was nine times higher than when water temperature and winters were average, and 73 times higher than when water was cold in spring and winters were long. Relative survival from age 1 to recruitment at age 2 was best described by a multiple linear regression with terms for adult abundance, TP, and predation. Mean recruitment of age-2 fish in the 1978–1998 year-classes predicted by using the two models in sequence was only about 20% greater than the observed mean recruitment. Model estimates fit the measured data exceptionally well for all but the largest four year-classes, which suggests that the models will facilitate improvement in estimates of trophic transfer due to alewives.

Seasonal patterns in body temperature of free-living rock hyrax (Procavia capensis).

PubMed

Brown, Kelly J; Downs, Colleen T

2006-01-01

Rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) are faced with large daily fluctuations in ambient temperature during summer and winter. In this study, peritoneal body temperature of free-living rock hyrax was investigated. During winter, when low ambient temperatures and food supply prevail, rock hyrax maintained a lower core body temperature relative to summer. In winter body temperatures during the day were more variable than at night. This daytime variability is likely a result of body temperatures being raised from basking in the sun. Body temperatures recorded during winter never fell to low levels recorded in previous laboratory studies. During summer ambient temperatures exceeded the thermoneutral zone of the rock hyrax throughout most of the day, while crevice temperatures remained within the thermoneutral zone of rock hyrax. However, in summer variation in core body temperature was small. Minimum and maximum body temperatures did not coincide with minimum and maximum ambient temperatures. Constant body temperatures were also recorded when ambient temperatures reached lethal limits. During summer it is likely that rock hyrax select cooler refugia to escape lethal temperatures and to prevent excessive water loss. Body temperature of rock hyrax recorded in this study reflects the adaptability of this animal to the wide range of ambient temperatures experienced in its natural environment.

Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

2018-02-01

While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2018-01-01

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.

Thermal Acclimatization in Overwintering Tadpoles of the Green Frog, Lithobates clamitans (Latreille, 1801).

PubMed

Gray, Kathryn T; Escobar, Astrid M; Schaeffer, Paul J; Mineo, Patrick M; Berner, Nancy J

2016-06-01

Seasonal acclimatization permits organisms to maintain function in the face of environmental change. Tadpoles of the green frog (Lithobates clamitans) overwinter as tadpoles in much of their range. Because they are active in winter, we hypothesized that green frog tadpoles would display acclimatization of metabolic and locomotor function. We collected tadpoles in Sewanee, Tennessee (35.2°N) in winter and summer. Tadpoles collected during each season were tested at both winter (8°C) and summer (26°C) temperatures. Winter tadpoles were able to maintain swimming performance at both temperatures, whereas swimming performance decreased at cold temperatures in summer tadpoles. There was no evidence for seasonal acclimatization of whole-animal metabolic rate. Although whole-animal metabolic acclimatization was not observed, the activities of cytochrome c oxidase, citrate synthase, and lactate dehydrogenase measured in skeletal muscle homogenates showed higher activity in winter-acclimatized tadpoles indicating compensation for temperature. Further, the composition of muscle membranes of winter tadpoles had less saturated and more monounsaturated fatty acids and a higher ω-3 balance, unsaturation index, and peroxidation index than summer tadpoles. These data indicate that reversible phenotypic plasticity of thermal physiology occurs in larval green frog tadpoles. They appear to compensate for colder temperatures to maintain burst-swimming velocity and the ability to escape predators without the cost of maintaining a constant, higher standard metabolic rate in the winter. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of winter temperature profiles in asphalt and concrete pavements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

The objectives of this research were to 1) determine which pavement type, asphalt or concrete, has : higher surface temperatures in winter and 2) compare the subsurface temperatures under asphalt and : concrete pavements to determine the pavement typ...

Mangrove species' responses to winter air temperature extremes in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Luzhen; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Qingshun Q.; Zhang, Yihui; Yang, Shengchang; Osland, Michael J.; Huang, Jinliang; Peng, Congjiao

2017-01-01

The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature extremes has been lacking because extreme freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species-specific variation in mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species-specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non-native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic- and species-specific responses of mangroves to winter temperature extremes. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza). As expected, non-native species were less tolerant of winter temperature extremes than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature-controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) winter air temperature extremes, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological role; and (3) due to afforestation and restoration efforts, several species of non-native mangroves have been introduced beyond their natural range limits. Hence, from a global perspective, mangroves in China provide valuable opportunities to advance understanding of the effects of freezing and chilling temperatures on mangroves. Within the context of climate change, our findings provide a foundation for better understanding and preparing for mangrove species-specific responses to future changes in the duration and intensity of winter temperature extremes.

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.

PubMed

Manzello, Derek P

2015-11-16

Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2014-10-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonality as well as the frequency and intensity of decadal climate oscillations. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g. the Early Oligocene during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. As demonstrated by the present study, pristinely preserved shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany, provide an excellent archive to reconstruct changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. Their shells grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin 30 Ma ago. Absolute sea surface temperature data were faithfully reconstructed from δ18 Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Extreme values ranged between 12.3 and 22.0°C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, summer and winter temperatures varied greatly on inter-annual time-scales. Winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equaled 13.6 ± 0.8°C and 17.3 ± 1.2°C, respectively. Unless many samples are analyzed, this variability is hardly seen in foraminiferan tests. Our data also revealed decadal-scale oscillations of seasonal extremes which have - in the absence of appropriate climate archives - never been identified before for the Oligocene. This information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar ice-free world.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, Kristine L.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Lin, Ke; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-05-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual ( 2.0°C) and multidecadal variability ( 1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades ( 1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734-2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2015-02-01

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species-specific responses are resulting in community-wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm-adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index--the Community Temperature Index (CTI)--which measures the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22-year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm-adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2015-02-01

Vegetation - atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year Eddy Covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all time scales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heat wave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.

Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2015-07-01

The vegetation-atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.

The role of climatic variables in winter cereal yields: a retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Qunying; Wen, Li

2015-02-01

This study examined the effects of observed climate including [CO2] on winter cereal [winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), barley (Hordeum vulgare) and oat (Avena sativa)] yields by adopting robust statistical analysis/modelling approaches (i.e. autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average, generalised addition model) based on long time series of historical climate data and cereal yield data at three locations (Moree, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga) in New South Wales, Australia. Research results show that (1) growing season rainfall was significantly, positively and non-linearly correlated with crop yield at all locations considered; (2) [CO2] was significantly, positively and non-linearly correlated with crop yields in all cases except wheat and barley yields at Wagga Wagga; (3) growing season maximum temperature was significantly, negatively and non-linearly correlated with crop yields at Dubbo and Moree (except for barley); and (4) radiation was only significantly correlated with oat yield at Wagga Wagga. This information will help to identify appropriate management adaptation options in dealing with the risk and in taking the opportunities of climate change.

Extratropical signature of the quasi-biennial oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan; Jiang, Xun; Yung, Yuk L.

2005-01-01

Using the assimilated data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, we show that the extratropical signature of the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is seen mostly in the North Annular Mode (NAM) of atmospheric variability. To understand the extratropical manifestation of the QBO, we discuss two effects that have been suggested earlier: (1) The extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO modulation of the planetary wave flux, and (2) the extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO-induced meridional circulation. We found that the first effect is seen in wave 1 in the beginning of winter and in wave 2 in the end of winter. The QBO-induced circulation affects midlatitude regions over the entire winter. To investigate the QBONAM coupling, we use an equation that relates the stream function of the meridional circulation and the polar cap averaged temperature, which is a proxy for the NAM index. In addition to the annual (omega)a and the QBO frequency (omega)Q the spectrum of its solutions indicates the satellite frequencies at (omega)a +/- (o.

The Formation each Winter of the Circumpolar Wave in the Sea Ice around Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, Per; White, Warren B.

1999-01-01

Seeking to improve upon the visualization of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) , we compare a 16-year sequence of 6-month winter averages of Antarctic sea ice extents and concentrations with those of adjacent sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here we follow SSTs around the globe along the maximum sea ice edge rather than in a zonal band equatorward of it. The results are similar to the earlier ones, but the ACWs do not propagate with equal amplitude or speed. Additionally in a sequence of 4 polar stereographic plots of these SSTs and sea ice concentrations, we find a remarkable correlation between SST minima and sea ice concentration maxima, even to the extent of matching contours across the ice-sea boundary, in the sector between 900E and the Palmer Peninsula. Based on these observations, we suggest that the memory of the ACW in the sea ice is carried from one Austral winter to the next by the neighboring SSTS, since the sea ice is nearly absent in the Austral summer.

Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub.

PubMed

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-03-23

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October-April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar 'Narve Viking' than in the cultivar 'Titania', but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in 'Titania'. Since 'Narve Viking' has a higher chilling requirement than 'Titania', this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of 'Narve Viking', which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in blackcurrant, but to various extents depending on genotype-specific differences in chilling requirement. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Winter warming delays dormancy release, advances budburst, alters carbohydrate metabolism and reduces yield in a temperate shrub

PubMed Central

Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie

2015-01-01

Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October–April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar ‘Narve Viking’ than in the cultivar ‘Titania’, but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in ‘Titania’. Since ‘Narve Viking’ has a higher chilling requirement than ‘Titania’, this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of ‘Narve Viking’, which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in blackcurrant, but to various extents depending on genotype-specific differences in chilling requirement. PMID:25802249

Summer to Winter Diurnal Variabilities of Temperature and Water Vapour in the Lowermost Troposphere as Observed by HAMSTRAD over Dome C, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricaud, P.; Genthon, C.; Durand, P.; Attié, J.-L.; Carminati, F.; Canut, G.; Vanacker, J.-F.; Moggio, L.; Courcoux, Y.; Pellegrini, A.; Rose, T.

2012-04-01

The HAMSTRAD (H2O Antarctica Microwave Stratospheric and Tropospheric Radiometers) microwave radiometer operating at 60 GHz (oxygen line, thus temperature) and 183 GHz (water vapour line) has been permanently deployed at the Dome C station, Concordia, Antarctica [75°06'S, 123°21'E, 3,233 m above mean sea level] in January 2010 to study long-term trends in tropospheric absolute humidity and temperature. The great sensitivity of the instrument in the lowermost troposphere helped to characterize the diurnal cycle of temperature and H2O from the austral summer (January 2010) to the winter (June 2010) seasons from heights of 10 to 200 m in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The study has characterized the vertical resolution of the HAMSTRAD measurements: 10-20 m for temperature and 25-50 m for H2O. A strong diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O (although noisier) has been measured in summertime at 10 m, decreasing in amplitude with height, and phase-shifted by about 4 h above 50 m with a strong H2O-temperature correlation (>0.8) throughout the entire PBL. In autumn, whilst the diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O is less intense, a 12-h phase shift is observed above 30 m. In wintertime, a weak diurnal signal measured between 10 to 200 m is attributed to the methodology employed, which consists of monthly averaged data, and that combines air masses from different origins (sampling effect) and not to the imprint of the null solar irradiation. In situ sensors scanning the entire 24-h period, radiosondes launched at 2000 local solar time (LST) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 LST agree very well with the HAMSTRAD diurnal cycles for temperature and relatively well for absolute humidity. For temperature, HAMSTRAD tends to be consistent with all the other datasets but shows a smoother vertical profile from 10 to 100 m compared to radiosondes and in-situ data, with ECMWF profiles even smoother than HAMSTRAD profiles, and particularly obvious when moving from summer to winter. For H2O, HAMSTRAD measures a much moister atmosphere compared to all the other datasets with a much weaker diurnal cycle at 10 m. Our study has helped characterize the time variation of the PBL at Dome C with a top around 200 m in summertime decreasing to 30 m in wintertime. In summer, from 2000 to 0600 LST a stable layer is observed, followed by a well-mixed layer the remaining time, while only a nocturnal stable layer remains in winter. In autumn, a daytime convective layer shallower than the nocturnal stable layer develops.

The Yearly Variation in Fall-Winter Arctic Winter Vortex Descent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark R.; Newman, Paul A.

1999-01-01

Using the change in HALOE methane profiles from early September to late March, we have estimated the minimum amount of diabatic descent within the polar which takes place during Arctic winter. The year to year variations are a result in the year to year variations in stratospheric wave activity which (1) modify the temperature of the vortex and thus the cooling rate; (2) reduce the apparent descent by mixing high amounts of methane into the vortex. The peak descent amounts from HALOE methane vary from l0km -14km near the arrival altitude of 25 km. Using a diabatic trajectory calculation, we compare forward and backward trajectories over the course of the winter using UKMO assimilated stratospheric data. The forward calculation agrees fairly well with the observed descent. The backward calculation appears to be unable to produce the observed amount of descent, but this is only an apparent effect due to the density decrease in parcels with altitude. Finally we show the results for unmixed descent experiments - where the parcels are fixed in latitude and longitude and allowed to descend based on the local cooling rate. Unmixed descent is found to always exceed mixed descent, because when normal parcel motion is included, the path average cooling is always less than the cooling at a fixed polar point.

30,000 years of hydroclimatic variability in the coastal southwest United States: regional synthesis and forcings analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, M. E.

2015-12-01

The coastal southwest United States is characterized by a winter dominated hydroclimate. Far from dependable, this region's supply of winter precipitation is highly variable and often characterized by hydrologic opposites - droughts and floods. Predicting future precipitation and hydrologic dynamics requires a paleoperspective. Here, we present an up-to-date synthesis of hydroclimatic variability over the past 30,000 years. A variety of terrestrial-based studies are examined and compared to understand patterns of regional hydroclimatic change. This comparison is extended into the San Joaquin Basin of California where future climate change will impact the region's agricultural stability and economy. Particularly interesting is the apparent role that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play in modulating the region's hydroclimate over a variety of timescales. Are past periods of above average Pacific SSTs analogs for future global warming? If yes, the region might expect an increase in winter precipitation as SSTs rise in response to global warming. However, how this potential precipitation increase is manifest is unknown. For example, will the intensity of precipitation events increase and thus present increased flood hazards and diminished freshwater capture? Finally, we present evidence for changes in the source of winter precipitation over time as well as ecological responses to past hydrologic change.

The Shape of Things to Come: Estimating Northern-Hemisphere (NH) Transient Climate Response Through Hindcasting and Forecasting the Frequency Distribution of Earth's NH Land Temperature Anomalies for the Period 1951-2071

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclerc, D. F.

2016-12-01

Northern-hemisphere (NH) heatwaves, during which temperatures rise 5 standard deviations (SD), sigma, above the historical mean temperature, mu, are becoming frequent; these events skew temperature anomaly (delta T) profiles towards extreme values. Although general extreme value (GEV) distributions have modeled precipitation data, their application to temperatures have met with limited success. This work presents a modified three-parameter (mu, sigma and tau (skew)) Exponential-Gaussian (eGd) model that hindcasts decadal NH land winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) delta Ts from 1951 to 2011, and forecasts profiles for a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2061-2071. We accessed 12 numerical binned (0.05 °C/bin) z-scored NH decadal datasets (posted online until August 2015) from the publicly available website http://www.columbia.edu/ mhs119/PerceptionsAndDice/ mentioned in Hansen et al, PNAS 109 E2415-E2423 (2012) and stated to be in the public domain. No pre-processing was done. Parameters were calculated for the 12 NH datasets pasted into Microsoft Excel™ through the method of moments for 1-tail distributions and through the BEST deconvolution program described by Pommé and Marroyo, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 96 148-153 (2015) for 2-tail distributions. We used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), residual sum of squares (RSS) and F-test to find optimal parameter values. Calculated 1st (= sigma + tau) and 2nd (= sigma2 + tau2) moments were found to be within 0.5% of observed values. Land delta Ts were recovered from the z-score values by multiplying the winter data by its SD (1.2 °C) and likewise the summer data by 0.6 °C. Results were all within 0.05 °C of 10-year averages from the GHCNv3 NH land dataset. Assuming BAU (increases from 2.1 to 2.6 ppm/y CO2) and using temperature rises of 0.27 °C and 0.35 °C per decade, for summer and winter, respectively, and forecasting to 2071, we obtain for the transient climate response for doubled CO2 (560 ppm CO2) mean delta Ts of 2.39 °C for summer and 2.97 °C for NH winter, thereby widely missing the agreed-to 2 °C international target which will be reached around 2040 @ 465 ppm CO2. In summary, barring volcanic eruptions and/or El Niño events, winter delta Ts will exceed 6 °C over 5% of land area, whereas in summer delta Ts will surpass 3.6 °C over 23% of same, both at the 5 sigma level.

Within-Winter Flexibility in Muscle Masses, Myostatin, and Cellular Aerobic Metabolic Intensity in Passerine Birds.

PubMed

Swanson, David L; King, Marisa O; Culver, William; Zhang, Yufeng

Metabolic rates of passerine birds are flexible traits that vary both seasonally and among and within winters. Seasonal variation in summit metabolic rates (M sum = maximum thermoregulatory metabolism) in birds is consistently correlated with changes in pectoralis muscle and heart masses and sometimes with variation in cellular aerobic metabolic intensity, so these traits might also be associated with shorter-term, within-winter variation in metabolic rates. To determine whether these mechanisms are associated with within-winter variation in M sum , we examined the effects of short-term (ST; 0-7 d), medium-term (MT; 14-30 d), and long-term (LT; 30-yr means) temperature variables on pectoralis muscle and heart masses, pectoralis expression of the muscle-growth inhibitor myostatin and its metalloproteinase activators TLL-1 and TLL-2, and pectoralis and heart citrate synthase (CS; an indicator of cellular aerobic metabolic intensity) activities for two temperate-zone resident passerines, house sparrows (Passer domesticus) and dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). For both species, pectoralis mass residuals were positively correlated with ST temperature variables, suggesting that cold temperatures resulted in increased turnover of pectoralis muscle, but heart mass showed little within-winter variation for either species. Pectoralis mRNA and protein expression of myostatin and the TLLs were only weakly correlated with ST and MT temperature variables, which is largely consistent with trends in muscle masses for both species. Pectoralis and heart CS activities showed weak and variable trends with ST temperature variables in both species, suggesting only minor effects of temperature variation on cellular aerobic metabolic intensity. Thus, neither muscle or heart masses, regulation by the myostatin system, nor cellular aerobic metabolic intensity varied consistently with winter temperature, suggesting that other factors regulate within-winter metabolic variation in these birds.

Statistical modeling of temperature, humidity and wind fields in the atmospheric boundary layer over the Siberian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomakina, N. Ya.

2017-11-01

The work presents the results of the applied climatic division of the Siberian region into districts based on the methodology of objective classification of the atmospheric boundary layer climates by the "temperature-moisture-wind" complex realized with using the method of principal components and the special similarity criteria of average profiles and the eigen values of correlation matrices. On the territory of Siberia, it was identified 14 homogeneous regions for winter season and 10 regions were revealed for summer. The local statistical models were constructed for each region. These include vertical profiles of mean values, mean square deviations, and matrices of interlevel correlation of temperature, specific humidity, zonal and meridional wind velocity. The advantage of the obtained local statistical models over the regional models is shown.

Trailer microclimate during commercial transportation of feeder cattle and relationship to indicators of cattle welfare.

PubMed

Goldhawk, C; Crowe, T; Janzen, E; González, L A; Kastelic, J; Pajor, E; Schwartzkopf-Genswein, K S

2014-11-01

Nineteen loads of commercial feeder cattle (BW 376 ± 39 kg, mean ± SD) transported for 18 ± 4.5 h in summer and winter seasons were used to collect data on internal temperature and humidity conditions in the deck and belly compartment of pot-bellied trailers and their relationship with shrink, cortisol, and morbidity. Measurements of temperature or humidity at ceiling or animal level did not vary with transportation factors. Temperature and humidity ratio was greater at animal-level than ambient conditions during nonhighway travel and stationary periods (P < 0.01). During the 3 time periods evaluated within journeys, there was a larger difference between animal-level and ambient conditions during the winter than during the summer (P < 0.01); however, this difference was not associated with other transport factors (P > 0.05). Evening loads (1700 and 2100 h) experienced more shrink in the summer than in the winter (11.2 ± 0.5 vs. 9.0 ± 0.5% of BW; P = 0.03). A 1°C increase in difference between average animal-level temperature in transit and the mean ambient temperature during the 10 d before transport was associated with a 0.11 ± 0.03% of BW increase in shrink (P < 0.01) and 0.006 ± 0.002 ng/mL increase in posttransport cortisol concentration (P = 0.05). Animal-level temperature-humidity index (THI) events (consecutive observations of THI greater than 78°F) were more likely to last for longer than 1 h when the trailer was stationary vs. traveling (mean = 1.8, confidence level 95% = 1.33, 2.52). During THI events at animal level, the disagreement with ambient temperature regarding THI classification was lower when the vehicle was traveling vs. stationary (95.5 ± 0.01% vs. 99.7 ± 0.002% of THI event in disagreement; P < 0.01) and was greatest in events less than 1 h (99.8 ± 0.0% vs. 91.7 ± 0.03% of THI event in disagreement; P < 0.01). The average magnitude of the difference during these events was 11.4 ± 7.6°F and was not affected by transportation factors (P > 0.05). Despite association between indicators of calf welfare and microclimate, all cattle arrived in good condition and there was 0.96% treatment rate within the first 30 d after arrival. Management and auditing decisions related to transportation of feeder cattle should consider the relationship between animal-level and ambient conditions and conditions before transportation. Under the commercial conditions of the current study, the transportation process did not appear to cause distress according to the dimensions of animal welfare that were assessed.

Development and testing of transfer functions for generating quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Ellyn J.; van der Kaars, Sander

2006-10-01

We review attempts to derive quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data, including the climatic envelope, climatic indicator and modern analogue approaches, and outline the need to pursue alternatives for use as input to, or validation of, simulations by models of past, present and future climate patterns. To this end, we have constructed and tested modern pollen-climate transfer functions for mainland southeastern Australia and Tasmania using the existing southeastern Australian pollen database and for northern Australia using a new pollen database we are developing. After testing for statistical significance, 11 parameters were selected for mainland southeastern Australia, seven for Tasmania and six for northern Australia. The functions are based on weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and their predictive ability evaluated against modern observational climate data using leave-one-out cross-validation. Functions for summer, annual and winter rainfall and temperatures are most robust for southeastern Australia, while in Tasmania functions for minimum temperature of the coldest period, mean winter and mean annual temperature are the most reliable. In northern Australia, annual and summer rainfall and annual and summer moisture indexes are the strongest. The validation of all functions means all can be applied to Quaternary pollen records from these three areas with confidence. Copyright

Phytoremediation of arsenic- and molybdenum-contaminated alkaline wastewater by Eleocharis acicularis in winter in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Shusaku; Okazaki, Kenji; Kurahashi, Toshiyuki; Sakakibara, Masayuki

2017-06-01

Phytoremediation using aquatic plants is a sustainable, low-cost measure for remediating water contaminated by toxic heavy metals. In this study, we conducted a channel experiment using Eleocharis acicularis in heavy metal-contaminated mildly alkaline wastewater under unfavorable plant habitat conditions in winter in northeastern Japan. The wastewater from an embankment consisting of Neogene marine sediments had a temperature of 10-15 °C and a pH of about 9, and it contained ∼0.02 mg/L of As and ∼ 0.23 mg/L of Mo. About 16 kg (fresh weight) of E. acicularis was laid in a plastic channel measuring 30 cm in width by 20 m in length, and the channel was enclosed in a tunnel greenhouse. The experiment was conducted for the 3 months from November 2015 at an average flow rate of 0.3 L/min and an air temperature of -4 to 19 °C. No reductions in As or Mo concentrations in the outflow were detected. However, at 3 months, the E. acicularis showed accumulations of ∼7 mg/kg As and ∼18 mg/kg Mo as dry weight, indicating that this remediation method is workable in an unfavorable low-temperature, mildly alkaline environment.

Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe.

PubMed

Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A C; Haddeland, Ingjerd

This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.

Local temperatures predict breeding phenology but do not result in breeding synchrony among a community of resident cavity-nesting birds.

PubMed

Drake, Anna; Martin, Kathy

2018-02-09

Weather and ecological factors are known to influence breeding phenology and thus individual fitness. We predicted concordance between weather conditions and annual variation in phenology within a community of eight resident, cavity-nesting bird species over a 17-year period. We show that, although clutch initiation dates for six of our eight species are correlated with local daily maximum temperatures, this common driver does not produce a high degree of breeding synchrony due to species-specific responses to conditions during different periods of the preceding winter or spring. These "critical temperature periods" were positively associated with average lay date for each species, although the interval between critical periods and clutch initiation varied from 4-78 days. The ecological factors we examined (cavity availability and a food pulse) had an additional influence on timing in only one of our eight focal species. Our results have strong implications for understanding heterogeneous wildlife responses to climate change: divergent responses would be expected within communities where species respond to local conditions within different temporal windows, due to differing warming trends between winter and spring. Our system therefore indicates that climate change could alter relative breeding phenology among sympatric species in temperate ecosystems.

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years. PMID:28178351

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

PubMed

Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

Meteorological influence on predicting surface SO2 concentration from satellite remote sensing in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Xue, Dan; Yin, Jingyuan

2014-05-01

In this study, we explored the potential applications of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor in air pollution research. The OMI planetary boundary layer sulfur dioxide (SO2_PBL) column density and daily average surface SO2 concentration of Shanghai from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. After several consecutive years of increase, the surface SO2 concentration finally declined in 2007. It was higher in winter than in other seasons. The coefficient between daily average surface SO2 concentration and SO2_PBL was only 0.316. But SO2_PBL was found to be a highly significant predictor of the surface SO2 concentration using the simple regression model. Five meteorological factors were considered in this study, among them, temperature, dew point, relative humidity, and wind speed were negatively correlated with surface SO2 concentration, while pressure was positively correlated. Furthermore, it was found that dew point was a more effective predictor than temperature. When these meteorological factors were used in multiple regression, the determination coefficient reached 0.379. The relationship of the surface SO2 concentration and meteorological factors was seasonally dependent. In summer and autumn, the regression model performed better than in spring and winter. The surface SO2 concentration predicting method proposed in this study can be easily adapted for other regions, especially most useful for those having no operational air pollution forecasting services or having sparse ground monitoring networks.

Intraspecific variation in Pinus pinaster PSII photochemical efficiency in response to winter stress and freezing temperatures.

PubMed

Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo

2011-01-01

As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT₅₀, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site.P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (F(v)/F(m)), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (Φ(PSII)) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT₅₀ was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted F(v)/F(m) ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations.In conclusion, variations in F(v)/F(m), Φ(PSII), qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT₅₀) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters. Therefore, LT₅₀, as estimated by F(v)/F(m), is a reliable indicator of frost tolerance among P. pinaster populations.

Intraspecific Variation in Pinus Pinaster PSII Photochemical Efficiency in Response to Winter Stress and Freezing Temperatures

PubMed Central

Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo

2011-01-01

As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT50, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site. P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (ΦPSII) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT50 was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted Fv/Fm ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations. In conclusion, variations in Fv/Fm, ΦPSII, qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT50) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters. Therefore, LT50, as estimated by Fv/Fm, is a reliable indicator of frost tolerance among P. pinaster populations. PMID:22220195

Membrane stability of winter wheat plants exposed to subzero temperatures for variable lengths of time

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The ability to survive episodes of subfreezing temperature is essential to winter wheat. Fully cold-acclimated plants of six lines of winter wheat were exposed to -12, -14, -16 or -18° C, four 1-5 hours. Electrolyte leakage and plant survival were used to assess damage to the plants. Plants exposed ...

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

Terral De Vicuna, a Foehnlike Wind in Semiarid Northern Chile: Meteorological Aspects and Implications for the Fulfillment of Chill Requirements in Deciduous Fruit Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montes, Carlo; Rutllant, Jose A.; Aguirre, Anita; Bascunan-Godoy, Luisa; Julia, Cristobal

2016-01-01

The terral de Vicuña is a warm and dry wind that flows down the Elqui Valley in north-central Chile typically at dawn and early morning. Given that most terral episodes occur in austral winter when chill accumulation by deciduous fruit trees proceeds, negative effects on agriculture may be expected. During 11 (2004-14) winters a meteorological characterization of terral winds and the assessment of their impact on chill accumulation, by the modified Utah Model and the Dynamic Model, were performed. Within this period, 67 terral days (TD) were identified as those in which nighttime to early morning wind direction and speed, air temperature, and relative humidity reached defined thresholds on an hourly basis (terral hours). Most frequent TD featured 6-9 consecutive terral hours; duration is considered here as a proxy for their intensity. Synoptic-scale meteorological analysis shows that 65% of moderate and strong terral events develop as a cold, migratory anticyclone drifts poleward of the study area, coinciding with the onset of a midtropospheric ridge over central Chile, bringing southwest winds on top of the Andes (approximately 500-hPa level). The remaining 35% are either associated with 500-hPa easterlies (foehn like), with prefrontal conditions ahead of a trough driving northwest 500-hPa winds, or with transitional 500-hPa westerlies.Assessments of chill accumulation during TD show that, although present average and cold winter conditions do not represent a major TD hazard to local agriculture, lower chill accumulation associated with anomalously high nocturnal temperatures could be significantly more important during present and future warmer winters.

Energy budget above a high-elevation subalpine forest in complex topography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnipseed, A.A.; Blanken, P.D.; Anderson, D.E.; Monson, Russell K.

2002-01-01

Components of the energy budget were measured above a subalpine coniferous forest over two complete annual cycles. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were measured by eddy covariance. Bowen ratios ranged from 0.7 to 2.5 in the summer (June-September) depending upon the availability of soil water, but were considerably higher (???3-6) during winter (December-March). Energy budget closure averaged better than 84% on a half-hourly basis in both seasons with slightly greater closure during the winter months. The energy budget showed a dependence on friction velocity (u*), approaching complete closure at u* values greater than 1 m s-1. The dependence of budget closure on u* explained why energy balance was slightly better in the winter as opposed to summer, since numerous periods of high turbulence occur in winter. It also explained the lower degree of energy closure (???10% less) during easterly upslope flow since these periods were characterized by low wind speeds (U < 4 m s-1) and friction velocities (u* < 0.5 m s-1). Co-spectral analysis suggests a shift of flux density towards higher frequencies under conditions where closure was obtained. It is suggested that low frequency contributions to the flux and advection were responsible for the lack of day-time energy budget closure. These effects were reduced at high friction velocities observed at our site. Our ability to close the energy budget at night was also highly dependent on friction velocity, approaching near closure (???90%) at u* values between 0.7 and 1.1 m s-1. Below this range, the airflow within the canopy becomes decoupled with the flow above. Above this range, insufficient temperature resolution of the sonic anemometer obscured the small temperature fluctuations, rendering measurements intractable. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Inter-Hemispheric Teleconnection Increases Predictability of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamalakis, A.; Yu, J. Y.; Randerson, J. T.; AghaKouchak, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2017-12-01

Early and reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Traditional drivers of winter precipitation in the SWUS have been linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal/multidecadal oscillations of the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and persistent high-pressure ridges over the Gulf of Alaska. However, ENSO as well as other climate modes exhibit weak statistical relationships with precipitation and low predictability as lead time increases. Grounded on the hypothesis that still undiscovered relationships between large-scale atmosphere-ocean dynamics and SWUS precipitation might exist, here we followed a diagnostic approach by which instead of restricting ourselves to the established teleconnections, we analyzed systematically the correlation of global sea surface temperature (SST) and geopotential height (GPH) with winter precipitation amounts in all climatic divisions in the SWUS, for 1950-2015. Our results show that late-summer persistent SST and GPH anomalies in the subtropical southwestern Pacific are strongly connected with winter precipitation in most climatic divisions, exhibiting higher correlation values than ENSO, and thus increasing the potential for earlier and more accurate precipitation prediction. Cross validation and 30-year running average analysis starting in 1950 suggest an amplification of the detected teleconnections over the past three to four decades. The latter is most likely a result of the reported expansion of the tropics, which has started after the 1980s, and allows SST or GPH variability at lower latitudes to affect the meridional atmospheric circulation. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.

Seasonal and spatial distributions of atmospheric polychlorinated naphthalenes in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Die, Qingqi; Nie, Zhiqiang; Fang, Yanyan; Yang, Yufei; Gao, Xingbao; Tian, Yajun; He, Jie; Liu, Feng; Huang, Qifei; Tian, Shulei

2016-02-01

Air samples were collected in Shanghai during summer and winter 2013, and the gas and particulate concentrations of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) were measured. All 75 congeners were quantified and the corresponding toxic equivalents (TEQs) were calculated. PCN concentrations were higher in summer than winter, at 8.22-102 pg/m(3) (average of 61.3 pg/m(3)) in summer and 16.5-61.1 pg/m(3) (average of 37.7 pg/m(3)) in winter. Their seasonal TEQ values were in contrast, at 1.35-7.31 fg/m(3) (average of 3.84 fg/m(3)) in summer and 4.08-23.3 fg/m(3) (average of 8.80 fg/m(3)) in winter, because of the seasonal change in congener profiles. Tri-CNs were the predominant homologs in both the summer and winter samples. However, the major congeners in summer were PCNs containing less chlorine, but these decreased over winter. Air mass back trajectories suggested that wind direction over various sites was similar in the summer and winter seasons, yet there were clear seasonal variations in atmospheric PCN concentrations. Ratios of several characteristic congeners were calculated and the results indicated that the ratios varied only to a limited extent with PCN emissions profile from industrial thermal sources, but varied strongly with profiles of technical PCN and PCN contaminants in polychlorinated biphenyl mixtures. The results of principal component analysis suggest that local industrial thermal emissions (thermal processes containing waste incineration and secondary metal smelting processes) still play a considerable role in influencing the atmospheric PCNs in Shanghai. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

2017-12-01

High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

Accuracy of Modelled Stratospheric Temperatures in the Winter Arctic Vortex from Infra Red Montgolfier Long Duration Balloon Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pommereau, J.-P.; Garnier, A.; Knudson, B. M.; Letrenne, G.; Durand, M.; Cseresnjes, M.; Nunes-Pinharanda, M.; Denis, L.; Newman, P. A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The temperature of the stratosphere has been measured in the Arctic vortex every 9-10 minutes along the trajectory of four Infra Red Montgolfier long duration balloons flown for 7 to 22 days during the winters of 1997 and 1999. From a number of comparisons to independent sensors, the accuracy of the measurements is demonstrated to be plus or minus 0.5 K during nighttime and at altitude below 28 km (10 hPa). The performances of the analyses of global meteorological models, European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 31 and 50 levels, United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), Data Assimilation Office (DAO), National Climatic Prediction Center (NCEP) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, used in photochemical simulations of ozone destruction and interpretation of satellite data, are evaluated by comparison to this large (3500 data points) and homogeneous experimental data set. Most of models, except ECMWF31 in 1999, do show a smal1 average warm bias of between 0 and 1.6 K, with deviations particularly large, up to 20 K at high altitude (5hPa) in stratospheric warming conditions in 1999. Particularly wrong was ECMWF 31 levels near its top level at 10 hPa in 1999 where temperature 25 K colder than the real atmosphere were reported. The average dispersion between models and measurements varies from plus or minus 1.0 to plus or minus 3.0 K depending on the model and the year. It is shown to be the result of three contributions. The largest is a long wave modulation likely caused by the displacement of the temperature field in the analyses compared to real atmosphere. The second is the overestimation of the vertical gradient of temperature particularly in warming conditions, which explains the increase of dispersion from 1997 to 1999. Unexpectedly, the third and smallest (plus or minus 0.6-0.7 K) is the contribution of meso and subgrid scale vertical and horizontal features associated to the vertical propagation of orographic or gravity waves. Compared to other models, the newly available ECMWF 50 levels version assimilating the high vertical resolution radiances of the space borne Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, performs significantly better (0.03 plus or minus 1.12 K on average between 10 and 140 hPa in 1999) than other models.

Winter range arrival and departure of white-tailed deer in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.

1995-01-01

I analyzed 364 spring and 239 fall migrations by 194 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 1975 to 1993 in northeastern Minnesota to determine the proximate cause of arrivals on and departures from winter ranges. The first autumn temperatures below -7?C initiated fall migrations for 14% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0-30) of female deer prior to snowfall in three autumns, but only 2% remained on winter ranges. During 14 autumns, the first temperatures below -7?C coincidental with snowfalls elicited migration in 45% (95% CI = 34-57) of females, and 91 % remained on winter ranges. Arrival dates failed to correlate with independent variables of temperature and snow depth, precluding predictive modeling of arrival on winter ranges. During 13 years, a mean of 80% of females permanently arrived on winter ranges by 31 December. Mean departure dates from winter ranges varied annually (19 March - 4 May) and between winter ranges (14 days) and according to snow depth (15-cm differences). Only 15 - 41 % of deer departed when snow depths were> 30 cm but 80% had done so by the time of lO-cm depths. Mean weekly snow depths in March (18-85 cm) and mean temperature in April (0.3 -8.1 ?c) explained most of the variation in mean departure dates from two winter ranges (Ely, R2 = 0.87, P < 0.0005, n = 19 springs; Isabella, R2 = 0.85, P = 0.0001, n = 12 springs). Mean differences between observed mean departure dates and mean departure dates predicted from equations ranged from 3 days (predictions within the study area) to 8 days (predictions for winter ranges 100-440 km distant).

The effect of urban geometry on mean radiant temperature under future climate change: a study of three European cities.

PubMed

Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Lindberg, Fredrik; Rayner, David; Thorsson, Sofia

2015-07-01

Future anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the air temperature (T(a)) across Europe and increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of severe heat stress events. Heat stress events are generally associated with clear-sky conditions and high T(a), which give rise to high radiant heat load, i.e. mean radiant temperature (T(mrt)). In urban environments, T mrt is strongly influenced by urban geometry. The present study examines the effect of urban geometry on daytime heat stress in three European cities (Gothenburg in Sweden, Frankfurt in Germany and Porto in Portugal) under present and future climates, using T(mrt) as an indicator of heat stress. It is found that severe heat stress occurs in all three cities. Similar maximum daytime T(mrt) is found in open areas in all three cities despite of the latitudinal differences in average daytime T(mrt). In contrast, dense urban structures like narrow street canyons are able to mitigate heat stress in the summer, without causing substantial changes in T(mrt) in the winter. Although the T(mrt) averages are similar for the north-south and east-west street canyons in each city, the number of hours when T(mrt) exceeds the threshold values of 55.5 and 59.4 °C-used as indicators of moderate and severe heat stress-in the north-south canyons is much higher than that in the east-west canyons. Using statistically downscaled data from a regional climate model, it is found that the study sites were generally warmer in the future scenario, especially Porto, which would further exacerbate heat stress in urban areas. However, a decrease in solar radiation in Gothenburg and Frankfurt reduces T(mrt) in the spring, while the reduction in T(mrt) is somewhat offset by increasing T(a) in other seasons. It suggests that changes in the T(mrt) under the future scenario are dominated by variations in T(a). Nonetheless, the intra-urban differences remain relatively stable in the future. These findings suggest that dense urban structure can reduce daytime heat stress since it reduces the number of hours of high T(mrt) in the summer and does not cause substantial changes in average and minimum T(mrt) in the winter. In dense urban settings, a more diverse urban thermal environment is also preferred to compensate for reduced solar access in the winter. The extent to which the urban geometry can be optimized for the future climate is also influenced by local urban characteristics.

Seasonal variation in blood pressure and its relationship with outdoor temperature in 10 diverse regions of China: the China Kadoorie Biobank

PubMed Central

LEWINGTON, Sarah; LI, LiMing; SHERLIKER, Paul; GUO, Yu; MILLWOOD, Iona; BIAN, Zheng; WHITLOCK, Gary; YANG, Ling; COLLINS, Rory; CHEN, Junshi; WU, Xianping; WANG, Shaojie; HU, Yihe; JIANG, Li; YANG, Liqiu; LACEY, Ben; PETO, Richard; CHEN, Zhengming

2015-01-01

Objectives Mean blood pressure varies moderately with outdoor air temperature in many Western populations. Substantial uncertainty exists, however, about the strength of the relationship in other populations, and the relevance to it of age, adiposity, medical treatment, climate and housing conditions. Methods To investigate the relationship of blood pressure with season and outdoor temperature, we analysed cross-sectional data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 506 673 adults aged 30-79 recruited from ten diverse urban and rural regions in China. Analyses related mean blood pressure – overall and in various subgroups – to mean local outdoor temperature. Results The mean difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) between summer (June-August) and winter (December-February) was 10 mmHg overall, and was more extreme, on average, in rural than in urban areas (12 vs. 8 mmHg; p for interaction<0.0001). Above 5°C, SBP was strongly inversely associated with outdoor temperature in all ten areas studied, with 5.7 (SE 0.04) mmHg higher SBP per 10°C lower outdoor temperature. The association was stronger in older people and in those with lower body mass index. At lower temperatures there was no evidence of an association among participants who reported having home central heating. Conclusions Blood pressure was strongly inversely associated with outdoor temperature in Chinese adults across a range of climatic conditions, although access to home central heating appeared to remove much of the association during the winter months. Seasonal variation in blood pressure should be considered in the clinical management of hypertension. PMID:22688260

EnviroAtlas - Minimum Temperature 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly minimum temperature for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly minimum temperature for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

EnviroAtlas - Maximum Temperature 1950 - 2099 for the Conterminous United States

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EnviroAtlas Climate Scenarios were generated from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) ensemble averages (the average of over 30 available climate models) for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the contiguous U.S. at 30 arc-second (approx. 800 m2) spatial resolution. NEX-DCP30 mean monthly maximum temperature for the 4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were organized by season (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall) and annually for the years 2006 00e2?? 2099. Additionally, mean monthly maximum temperature for the ensemble average of all historic runs is organized similarly for the years 1950 00e2?? 2005. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).

Analysis of climate and topographic effect on wildfire regime in Liguria, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Degli Esposti, Silvia

2016-04-01

Wildfire risk is particularly significant in Italy, both in summer and winter season due to the high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of the territory. Liguria is one of the few regions in Italy affected by wildfires both in summer and winter. Most of the fires in Italy occur in summer season and the burned area is largely greater than in winter season. In Liguria, the number of wildfires and the burned area is higher in winter than in summer. Winter fire regime is mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north in condition of curing for most of the herbaceous species. Southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions. The availability of a mapping of fire perimeters spans almost 20 years (1996-2013), and this, combined with a detailed knowledge of topography, climate and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behavior. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November-April and May- October). Total precipitation and average air temperature obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 164 raingauges and 127 thermometers series were considered. The analysis was based on a recursive-quantiles subdivision of the territory in classes based on the different available information layers: elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall height, temperature (the latter subdivided in winter and summer periods). The algorithm is designed in order to assure the equal representation of each class, in which the number of fires occurred in the period of analysis is considered, in order to have an estimation of the fire hazard with a constant statistical confidence. The analysis was carried out at a spatial resolution of 20 m on the Liguria region territory (5400 km2) by using a dataset of fires occurrences that spans from 1996 to 2013. The results show a very high correlation with the topographic aspects both in winter and summer. Rainfall is almost uncorrelated in both season. Air temperature is high correlated with the burned area but it is strictly related with elevation. Independently by the season and the vegetation cover, elevation and slope show a very high correlation with the burned area determining almost completely the wildfire regime in Liguria.

Winter temperature conditions (1670-2010) reconstructed from varved sediments, western Canadian High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amann, Benjamin; Lamoureux, Scott F.; Boreux, Maxime P.

2017-09-01

Advances in paleoclimatology from the Arctic have provided insights into long-term climate conditions. However, while past annual and summer temperature have received considerable research attention, comparatively little is known about winter paleoclimate. Arctic winter is of special interest as it is the season with the highest sensitivity to climate change, and because it differs substantially from summer and annual measures. Therefore, information about past changes in winter climate is key to improve our knowledge of past forced climate variability and to reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this context, Arctic lakes with snowmelt-fed catchments are excellent potential winter climate archives. They respond strongly to snowmelt-induced runoff, and indirectly to winter temperature and snowfall conditions. To date, only a few well-calibrated lake sediment records exist, which appear to reflect site-specific responses with differing reconstructions. This limits the possibility to resolve large-scale winter climate change prior the instrumental period. Here, we present a well-calibrated quantitative temperature and snowfall record for the extended winter season (November through March; NDJFM) from Chevalier Bay (Melville Island, NWT, Canadian Arctic) back to CE 1670. The coastal embayment has a large catchment influenced by nival terrestrial processes, which leads to high sedimentation rates and annual sedimentary structures (varves). Using detailed microstratigraphic analysis from two sediment cores and supported by μ-XRF data, we separated the nival sedimentary units (spring snowmelt) from the rainfall units (summer) and identified subaqueous slumps. Statistical correlation analysis between the proxy data and monthly climate variables reveals that the thickness of the nival units can be used to predict winter temperature (r = 0.71, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) and snowfall (r = 0.65, pc < 0.01, 5-yr filter) for the western Canadian High Arctic over the last ca. 400 years. Results reveal a strong variability in winter temperature back to CE 1670 with the coldest decades reconstructed for the period CE 1800-1880, while the warmest decades and major trends are reconstructed for the period CE 1880-1930 (0.26°C/decade) and CE 1970-2010 (0.37°C/decade). Although the first aim of this study was to increase the paleoclimate data coverage for the winter season, the record from Chevalier Bay also holds great potential for more applied climate research such as data-model comparisons and proxy-data assimilation in climate model simulations.

Climate change: consequences on the pollination of grasses in Perugia (Central Italy). A 33-year-long study.

PubMed

Sofia, Ghitarrini; Emma, Tedeschini; Veronica, Timorato; Giuseppe, Frenguelli

2017-01-01

Many works carried out in the last decades have shown that the pollen season for taxa flowering in winter and spring, in temperate regions, has tended to be earlier, probably due to the continuous rise in temperature. The mean annual temperature in Perugia, Central Italy, was about 0.5 °C higher in the last three decades compared with that registered from 1952 to 1981. The increase of temperature took place mainly in winter and spring, while no significant variation was recorded during the summer and autumn. This scenario shows variations in the timing and behavior of flowering of many spontaneous plants such as grasses, whose phenology is strongly influenced by air temperature. This work reports fluctuations in the airborne grass pollen presence in Perugia over a 33-year period (1982-2014), in order to study the influence of the warming registered in recent years on the behavior of pollen release of this taxon. The grass pollen season in Perugia typically lasts from the beginning of May to late July. The start dates showed a marked trend to an earlier beginning of the season (-0.4 day/year), as well as a strong correlation with the average temperatures of March and April. The peak is reached around 30th May, but the annual pollen index (API) is following a decreasing trend. The correlation between starting dates and spring temperatures could be interesting for the constitution of a forecasting model capable of predicting the presence of airborne grass pollen, helping to plan therapies for allergic people.

On the Influence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Arctic Winter Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Garfinkel, C. I.

2012-01-01

Differences between two ensembles of Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model simulations isolate the impact of North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Arctic winter climate. One ensemble of extended winter season forecasts is forced by unusually high SSTs in the North Pacific, while in the second ensemble SSTs in the North Pacific are unusually low. High Low differences are consistent with a weakened Western Pacific atmospheric teleconnection pattern, and in particular, a weakening of the Aleutian low. This relative change in tropospheric circulation inhibits planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere, in turn reducing polar stratospheric temperature in mid- and late winter. The number of winters with sudden stratospheric warmings is approximately tripled in the Low ensemble as compared with the High ensemble. Enhanced North Pacific SSTs, and thus a more stable and persistent Arctic vortex, lead to a relative decrease in lower stratospheric ozone in late winter, affecting the April clear-sky UV index at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.

Seasonal Study of Mercury Species in the Antarctic Sea Ice Environment.

PubMed

Nerentorp Mastromonaco, Michelle G; Gårdfeldt, Katarina; Langer, Sarka; Dommergue, Aurélien

2016-12-06

Limited studies have been conducted on mercury concentrations in the polar cryosphere and the factors affecting the distribution of mercury within sea ice and snow are poorly understood. Here we present the first comprehensive seasonal study of elemental and total mercury concentrations in the Antarctic sea ice environment covering data from measurements in air, sea ice, seawater, snow, frost flowers, and brine. The average concentration of total mercury in sea ice decreased from winter (9.7 ng L -1 ) to spring (4.7 ng L -1 ) while the average elemental mercury concentration increased from winter (0.07 ng L -1 ) to summer (0.105 ng L -1 ). The opposite trends suggest potential photo- or dark oxidation/reduction processes within the ice and an eventual loss of mercury via brine drainage or gas evasion of elemental mercury. Our results indicate a seasonal variation of mercury species in the polar sea ice environment probably due to varying factors such as solar radiation, temperature, brine volume, and atmospheric deposition. This study shows that the sea ice environment is a significant interphase between the polar ocean and the atmosphere and should be accounted for when studying how climate change may affect the mercury cycle in polar regions.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Atlas, Robert; Chou, S.-H.; Jusem, J. C.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.; Chase, T. N.; Rogers, J.; Russell, G. L.; Schubert, S. D.; Sud, Y. C.

2001-01-01

We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Impacts on Stream Temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Qian; Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John

We apply an integrated hydrology-stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM-RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt-dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lowermore » reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub-basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change.« less

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Boundary-Layer Characteristics Over a Coastal Megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melecio-Vazquez, D.; Ramamurthy, P.; Arend, M.; Moshary, F.; Gonzalez, J.

2017-12-01

Boundary-layer characteristics over New York City are analyzed for various local and synoptic conditions over several seasons. An array of vertical profilers, including a Doppler LiDAR, a micro-pulse LiDAR and a microwave radiometer are used to observe the structure and evolution of the boundary-layer. Additionally, an urbanized Weather Research and Forecasting (uWRF) model coupled to a high resolution landcover/land-use database is used to study the spatial variability in boundary layer characteristics. The summer daytime averaged potential temperature profile from the microwave radiometer shows the presence of a thermal internal boundary layer wherein a superadiabatic layer lies underneath a stable layer instead of a mixed-layer. Both the winter daytime and nighttime seasonal averages show that the atmosphere remains unstable near the surface and does not reach stable conditions during the nighttime. The mixing ratio seasonal averages show peaks in humidity near 200-m and 1100-m, above instrument level, which could result from sea breeze and anthropogenic sources. Ceilometer measurements show a high degree of variability in boundary layer height depending on wind direction. Comparison with uWRF results show that the model tends to overestimate convective efficiency for selected summer and winter cases and therefore shows a much deeper thermal boundary layer than the observed profiles. The model estimates a less humid atmosphere than seen in observations.

Ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia: how does season modify the association?

PubMed

Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Samoli, Evangelia; Yang, Xin; Kan, Haidong

2014-10-01

Previous studies in East Asia have revealed that the short-term associations between tropospheric ozone and daily mortality rate were strongest in winter, which is opposite to the findings in North America and Western Europe. Therefore, we investigated the season-varying association between ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia from 1979 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to analyze the association between ozone and daily nonaccidental mortality rate in each city, testing for different temperature lags. The best-fitting model was obtained after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to pool the city-specific estimates. An interquartile-range increase of the moving average concentrations of same-day and previous-day ozone was associated with an increase of 1.44% (95% posterior interval (PI): 1.08%, 1.80%) in daily total mortality rate after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. The corresponding increases were 0.62% (95% PI: 0.08%, 1.16%) in winter, 1.46% (95% PI: 0.89%, 2.03%) in spring, 1.60% (95% PI: 1.03%, 2.17%) in summer, and 1.12% (95% PI: 0.73%, 1.51%) in fall. We found significant associations between short-term exposure to ozone and higher mortality rate in East Asia that varied considerably from season to season with a significant trough in winter. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dust-wind interactions can intensify aerosol pollution over eastern China.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M; Lou, Sijia; Liao, Hong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J

2017-05-11

Eastern China has experienced severe and persistent winter haze episodes in recent years due to intensification of aerosol pollution. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, the winter aerosol pollution over eastern China is associated with unusual meteorological conditions, including weaker wind speeds. Here we show, based on model simulations, that during years with decreased wind speed, large decreases in dust emissions (29%) moderate the wintertime land-sea surface air temperature difference and further decrease winds by -0.06 (±0.05) m s -1 averaged over eastern China. The dust-induced lower winds enhance stagnation of air and account for about 13% of increasing aerosol concentrations over eastern China. Although recent increases in anthropogenic emissions are the main factor causing haze over eastern China, we conclude that natural emissions also exert a significant influence on the increases in wintertime aerosol concentrations, with important implications that need to be taken into account by air quality studies.

Temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution: processing--part 2.

PubMed

Koelkebeck, K W; Patterson, P H; Anderson, K E; Darre, M J; Carey, J B; Ahn, D U; Ernst, R A; Kuney, D R; Jones, D

2008-06-01

The Egg Safety Action Plan released in 1999 raised questions concerning egg temperature used in the risk assessment model. Therefore, a national study was initiated to determine the internal and external temperature sequence of eggs from oviposition through distribution. Researchers gathered data from commercial egg production, shell egg processing, and distribution facilities. The experimental design was a mixed model with 2 random effects for season and geographic region and a fixed effect for operation type (inline or offline). For this report, internal and external egg temperature data were recorded at specific points during shell egg processing in the winter and summer months. In addition, internal egg temperatures were recorded in pre- and postshell egg processing cooler areas. There was a significant season x geographic region interaction (P < 0.05) for both surface and internal temperatures. Egg temperatures were lower in the winter vs. summer, but eggs gained in temperature from the accumulator to the postshell egg processing cooler. During shell egg processing, summer egg surface and internal temperatures were greater (P < 0.05) than during the winter. When examining the effect of shell egg processing time and conditions, it was found that 2.4 and 3.8 degrees C were added to egg surface temperatures, and 3.3 and 6.0 degrees C were added to internal temperatures in the summer and winter, respectively. Internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the preshell egg processing cooler area during the summer vs. winter, and internal egg temperatures were higher (P < 0.05) in the summer when eggs were (3/4) cool (temperature change required to meet USDA-Agricultural Marketing Service storage regulation of 7.2 degrees C) in the postshell egg processing area. However, the cooling rate was not different (P > 0.05) for eggs in the postshell egg processing cooler area in the summer vs. winter. Therefore, these data suggest that season of year and geographic location can affect the temperature of eggs during shell egg processing and should be a component in future assessments of egg safety.

Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America.

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Lin, Hai

2018-03-29

The surface temperature variance and its potential change with global warming are most prominent in winter over Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Consistent wintertime surface temperature variability has been observed over large areas in Eurasia and North America on a broad range of time scales. However, it remains a challenge to quantify where and how the coherent change of temperature anomalies occur over the two continents. Here we demonstrate the coherent change of wintertime surface temperature anomalies over North Asia and the central-eastern parts of North America for the period from 1951 to 2015. This is supported by the results from the empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface temperature and temperature trend anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lands and the timeseries analysis of the regional averaged temperature anomalies over North Asia and the Great Plains and Great Lakes. The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection provides a pathway to connect the regional temperature anomalies over the two continents. The ABNA is also responsible for the decadal variation of the temperature relationship between North Asia and North America.

Volatility of organic aerosol and its components in the megacity of Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paciga, Andrea; Karnezi, Eleni; Kostenidou, Evangelia; Hildebrandt, Lea; Psichoudaki, Magda; Engelhart, Gabriella J.; Lee, Byong-Hyoek; Crippa, Monica; Prévôt, André S. H.; Baltensperger, Urs; Pandis, Spyros N.

2016-02-01

Using a mass transfer model and the volatility basis set, we estimate the volatility distribution for the organic aerosol (OA) components during summer and winter in Paris, France as part of the collaborative project MEGAPOLI. The concentrations of the OA components as a function of temperature were measured combining data from a thermodenuder and an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) with Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis. The hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) had similar volatility distributions for the summer and winter campaigns with half of the material in the saturation concentration bin of 10 µg m-3 and another 35-40 % consisting of low and extremely low volatility organic compounds (LVOCs with effective saturation concentrations C* of 10-3-0.1 µg m-3 and ELVOCs C* less or equal than 10-4 µg m-3, respectively). The winter cooking OA (COA) was more than an order of magnitude less volatile than the summer COA. The low-volatility oxygenated OA (LV-OOA) factor detected in the summer had the lowest volatility of all the derived factors and consisted almost exclusively of ELVOCs. The volatility for the semi-volatile oxygenated OA (SV-OOA) was significantly higher than that of the LV-OOA, containing both semi-volatile organic components (SVOCs with C* in the 1-100 µg m-3 range) and LVOCs. The oxygenated OA (OOA) factor in winter consisted of SVOCs (45 %), LVOCs (25 %) and ELVOCs (30 %). The volatility of marine OA (MOA) was higher than that of the other factors containing around 60 % SVOCs. The biomass burning OA (BBOA) factor contained components with a wide range of volatilities with significant contributions from both SVOCs (50 %) and LVOCs (30 %). Finally, combining the bulk average O : C ratios and volatility distributions of the various factors, our results are placed into the two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS) framework. The OA factors cover a broad spectrum of volatilities with no direct link between the average volatility and average O : C of the OA components.

Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

PubMed

Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

2017-11-01

Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better represented regions dominated by wheat crops. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:992-1006. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Winter CO2 efflux from cold semiarid sagebrush shrublands distributed across the rain-to-snow transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, A.; Flerchinger, G. N.; Lohse, K. A.; Seyfried, M. S.

2017-12-01

Predicting winter CO2 efflux across the rain-to-snow transition zone is challenging in the cold semiarid northern Great Basin, USA, complicated by steep environmental gradients and marked heterogeneity in ecosystem properties. We therefore examined winter CO2 efflux over 9 site-years using 4 eddy covariance towers located in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory. The sites were sagebrush shrublands located at 1425, 1680, 2098, and 2111 m, and spanned a large part of the rain-to-snow transition zone. We focused on two objectives. First, we quantified winter CO2 efflux at the sites, and considered how these varied with elevation. Second, we used a within-site and cross-site analysis to examine the biological and physical factors that impact winter CO2 efflux. Winter conditions were identified using temperature, snow depth, and CO2 exchange measurements and included 12,922 observations. The duration of winter conditions increased from 90 to 180 days with elevation. Peak snow depth increased from < 30 to > 100 cm with elevation. Cumulative winter CO2 efflux accounted for > 10% of the total annual CO2 efflux, increased with elevation, and was a key component of net ecosystem production at some sites in some years. The importance of winter CO2 efflux was accentuated by the region's long winters and also dry summers that decreased water availability and decomposition during non-winter periods. Preliminary regressions examining air temperature, soil temperature, wind speed, snow depth, and gross carbon uptake indicated some of these factors control the rate of winter CO2 efflux and require consideration, but that additional work is needed to disentangle co-linearity and assess the importance of these factors within and between sites. These findings suggest a consideration of winter CO2 efflux is warranted in cold winter-wet semiarid ecosystems, particularly where winters are long and non-winter CO2 efflux is strongly limited by water availability.

Effect of temperature on wheat streak mosaic disease development in winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature is one of the key factors that influence viral disease development in plants. In this study, temperature effect on Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) replication and in planta movement was determined using a green fluorescent protein (GFP)-tagged virus in two winter wheat cultivars. Virus-...

76 FR 14616 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of California; Interstate Transport of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-17

... during the winter time, when frequent and persistent temperature inversions occur, were specifically... winds and strong temperature inversions. These meteorological conditions may trap emissions within the... show a very high frequency of surface temperature inversions in the winter. Due to the meteorology...

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, D. A.; Cahalan, R. F.

1983-01-01

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

Remediation Versus Prevention of PCB Contamination: A Comparison Based on Risk and Cost Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

given year is 20 to 90 degrees Farenheit ; temperatures beyond these values are rare. Winters are cool, with snowfall averaging 10 inches or less per...kg LW Canada ɘ.2 mg/kg LW Fish oil (Canada) ɚ.0 mg/kg LW Beef (Canada) ɚ.0 mg/kg LW Infant & junior foods ɘ.2 mg/kg FW Drinking water zero Lifetime...and inedible bones. The zero drinking water criterion for human health protection is based on the non-threshold assumption for PCBs. However, a zero

Evapotranspiration and microclimate at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in northwestern Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, R.W.; DeVries, M.P.; Sturrock, A.M.

1987-01-01

From July 1982 through June 1984, a study was made of the microclimate and evapotranspiration at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois. Vegetation at the site consists of mixed pasture grasses, primarily brome (Bromus inermis) and red clover (Trifoleum pratense). Three methods were used to estimate evapotranspiration: (1) an energy-budget with the Bowen ratio, (2) an aerodynamic-profile, and (3) a soil-based water-budget. For the aerodynamic-profile method, sensible-heat flux was estimated by a profile equation and evapotranspiration was then calculated as the residual in the energy-balance equation. Estimates by the energy-budget and aerodynamic-profile methods were computed from hourly data, then summed by days and months. Yearly estimates for March through November, by these methods, were quite close--648 and 626 millimeters, respectively. Daily estimates range up to a maximum of about 6 millimeters. The water-budget method produced only monthly estimates based on weekly or biweekly soil-moisture content measurements. The yearly evapotranspiration estimated by this method (which actually included only the months of April through October) was 655 millimeters. The March-through-November average for the three methods of 657 millimeters was equivalent to 70 percent of precipitation. Continuous measurements were made of incoming and reflected shortwave radiation, incoming and emitted longwave radiation, net radiation, soil-heat flux, soil temperature, horizontal windspeed, and wet- and dry-bulb air temperature. Windspeed and air temperature were measured at heights of 0.5 and 2.0 meters (and also at 1.0 meter after September 1983). Soil-moisture content of the soil zone was measured with a gamma-attenuation gage. Annual precipitation (938 millimeters) and average temperature (10.8 degrees Celsius) were virtually identical to long-term averages from nearby National Weather Service stations. Solar radiation averaged 65 percent of that normally expected under clear skies. Net radiation averaged 70.1 watts per square meter and was highest in July and negative during some winter months. Wind direction varied but was predominately out of the south-southeast. Wind speed at the 2-meter height averaged 3.5 meters per second and was slightly higher in winter months than the rest of the year. The amount of water stored within the soil zone was greatest in early spring and least in late summer. Seasonal and diurnal trends in evapotranspiration rates mirrored those in net radiation; July was usually the month with the highest rate. The ratio of sensible- to latent-heat fluxes (commonly called the Bowen ratio) for the 2-year period was 0.38, as averaged from the three methods. Monthly Bowen ratios fluctuated somewhat but averaged about 0.35 for late spring through summer. In fall, the ratio declined to zero or to slightly negative values. When the ratio was negative, the latent-heat flux was slightly greater than the net radiation because of additional energy supplied by the cooling soil and air. Evapotranspiration calculated by the three methods averaged 75 percent of potential evapotranspiration, as estimated by the Penman equation. There was no apparent seasonal trend in the relation between actual and potential evapotranspiration rates.

Geographic variation in winter adaptations of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Sheriff, M.J.

2017-01-01

Understanding adaptations of nonhibernating northern endotherms to cope with extreme cold is important because climate-induced changes in winter temperatures and snow cover are predicted to impact these species the most. We compared winter pelage characteristics and heat production of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) on the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania (USA), to a northern population, in the Yukon (Canada), to investigate how hares might respond to changing environmental conditions. We also investigated how hares in Pennsylvania altered movement rates and resting spot selection to cope with variable winter temperatures. Hares from Pennsylvania had shorter, less dense, and less white winter coats than their northern counterparts, suggesting lower coat insulation. Hares in the southern population had lower pelage temperatures, indicating that they produced less heat than those in the northern population. In addition, hares in Pennsylvania did not select for resting spots that offered thermal advantages, but selected locations offering visual obstruction from predators. Movement rates were associated with ambient temperature, with the smallest movements occurring at the lower and upper range of observed ambient temperatures. Our results indicate that snowshoe hares may be able to adapt to future climate conditions via changes in pelage characteristics, metabolism, and behavior.

Evaluation of reanalysis datasets against observational soil temperature data over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kai; Zhang, Jingyong

2018-01-01

Soil temperature is a key land surface variable, and is a potential predictor for seasonal climate anomalies and extremes. Using observational soil temperature data in China for 1981-2005, we evaluate four reanalysis datasets, the land surface reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim/Land), the second modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), and version 2 of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.0), with a focus on 40 cm soil layer. The results show that reanalysis data can mainly reproduce the spatial distributions of soil temperature in summer and winter, especially over the east of China, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Owing to the influence of precipitation on soil temperature, the four datasets perform better in winter than in summer. The ERA-Interim/Land and GLDAS-2.0 produce spatial characteristics of the climatological mean that are similar to observations. The interannual variability of soil temperature is well reproduced by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset in summer and by the CFSR dataset in winter. The linear trend of soil temperature in summer is well rebuilt by reanalysis datasets. We demonstrate that soil heat fluxes in April-June and in winter are highly correlated with the soil temperature in summer and winter, respectively. Different estimations of surface energy balance components can contribute to different behaviors in reanalysis products in terms of estimating soil temperature. In addition, reanalysis datasets can mainly rebuild the northwest-southeast gradient of soil temperature memory over China.

Seasonal changes in the cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic responses to temperature and hypoxia in the bullfrog Rana catesbeiana.

PubMed

Rocha, P L; Branco, L G

1998-03-01

We assessed seasonal variations in the effects of temperature on hypoxia-induced alterations in the bullfrog Rana catesbeiana by measuring the heart rate, arterial blood pressure, breathing frequency, metabolic rate, blood gas levels, acid-base status and plasma glucose concentration. Regardless of the season, decreased body temperature was accompanied by a reduction in heart and breathing frequencies. Lower temperatures caused a significant decrease in arterial blood pressure during all four seasons. Hypoxia-induced changes in breathing frequency were proportional to body temperature and were more pronounced during winter, less so during spring and autumn and even smaller during summer. Season had no effect on the relationship between hypoxia and heart rate. At any temperature tested, the rate of oxygen consumption had a tendency to be highest during summer and lowest during winter, but the difference was significant only at 35 degrees C. The PaO2 and pH values showed no significant change during the year, but PaCO2 was almost twice as high during winter than in summer and spring, indicating increased plasma bicarbonate levels. Lower temperatures were accompanied by decreased plasma glucose levels, and this effect was greater during summer and smaller during autumn. Hypoxia-induced hyperglycaemia was influenced by temperature and season. During autumn and winter, plasma glucose level remained elevated regardless of temperature, probably to avoid dehydration and/or freezing. In winter, the bullfrog may be exposed not only to low temperatures but also to hypoxia. These animals show temperature-dependent responses that may be beneficial since at low body temperatures the set-points of most physiological responses to hypoxia are reduced, regardless of the season.

Climatology of mesopause region nocturnal temperature, zonal wind, and sodium density observed by sodium lidar over Hefei, China (32°N, 117°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Ban, C.; Fang, X.; Li, J.; Wu, Z.; Xiong, J.; Feng, W.; Plane, J. M. C.

2017-12-01

The University of Science and Technology of China narrowband sodium temperature/wind lidar, located in Hefei, China (32°N, 117°E), was installed in November 2011 and have made routine nighttime measurements since January 2012. We obtained 154 nights ( 1400 hours) of vertical profiles of temperature, sodium density, and zonal wind, and 83 nights ( 800 hours) of vertical flux of gravity wave (GW) zonal momentum in the mesopause region (80-105 km) during the period of 2012 to 2016. In temperature, it is likely that the diurnal tide dominates below 100 km in spring, while the semidiurnal tide dominates above 100 km throughout the year. A clear semiannual variation in temperature is revealed near 90 km, likely related to the tropical mesospheric semiannual oscillation (MSAO). The variability of sodium density is positively correlated with temperature, suggesting that in addition to dynamics, the chemistry may also play an important role in the formation of sodium atoms. The observed sodium peak density is 1000 cm-3 higher than that simulated by the model. In zonal wind, the diurnal tide dominates in both spring and fall, while semidiurnal tide dominates in winter. The observed semiannual variation in zonal wind near 90 km is out-of-phase with that in temperature, consistent with tropical MSAO. The GW zonal momentum flux is mostly westward in fall and winter, anti-correlated with eastward zonal wind. The annual mean flux averaged over 87-97 km is -0.3 m2/s2 (westward), anti-correlated with eastward zonal wind of 10 m/s. The comparisons of lidar results with those observed by satellite, nearby radar, and simulated by model show generally good agreements.

On the occurrence of the coldest region in the stratosphere and tropical tropopause stability: A study using COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Choudhary, R. K.; Ho, Shu-Peng; Yoden, S.; Reddy, K. K.

2014-12-01

The occurrence of coldest region in the lower and middle stratosphere has been investigated using COSMIC/FORMASAT-3 radio occultation measurements. Observations from January 2007 to December 2011, comprising of 2,871,811 numbers of occultations uniformly spread over land and sea, have been used in this study. Using vertical profiles of temperature upto 40 km altitude, zonally averaged at each 5° latitude band between 90°N and 90°S, it is shown that the coldest region in the upper atmosphere occurs during winter in high latitude stratosphere (latitudes >45°) in both the hemispheres with southern hemisphere (temperature less than <-85 °C) cooler than northern hemisphere (temperature ~-75 °C). The spatial extent of the region of low temperature region found between 10 km and 30 km altitude, indicating a 20 km vertical thick layer of cold temperature. In the southern hemisphere, such a region of coldest temperature remains for more than six months (April-October), in the Northern hemispheric polar region (~-75 °C) it is seen mostly during four winter months between October and January. Using NCEP-DOE reanalysis data, we show that cold temperature in the stratospheric region coexists with the jet streams prevalent in those regions. Strong wind jet is surmised to make stratosphere colder. The absence of sunlight in the coldest region is known to cause jet streams. Impact of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the sharpness of tropical tropopause (stability) has also been investigated. Observations suggest that during westerly phase of QBO, the stability of the tropopause increases.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomenko, Inna

2016-04-01

Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes owing to development of emission scenarios. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 8 cities (Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Voznesensk) situated down the highways. The highways of 'Odesa-Voznesensk-Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv' and 'Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi-Ternopil' are considered. The first highway goes across the Black Sea Lowland, the Dnieper Upland and Dnieper Lowland, the other passes through the Dnieper and Volhynia-Podillia Uplands. The both highways are situated in steppe and forest-steppe native zones. For both scenarios, significant climate warming is registered; it is revealed in significant increase of average monthly and yearly temperature by 2-3°C in all cities in questions, and also, in considerable increment of frequency of days with maximum temperature higher than +30 and 35°C, except Kharkiv, where decrease number of days with such temperatures is observed. On the contrary, number of days with daily mean temperature being equal to or below 0°C decreases in the south of steppe, is constant in the north of steppe and increases in the forest-steppe native zone. Extreme negative temperatures don't occur in the steppe zone, but takes place in the forest-steppe zone. Results obtained shows that road surface must hold in extreme maximum temperature, and in the forest-steppe zone hazards of extreme negative temperatures must be considered. Frequency of winter events that make road surface worse such as glaze-clear ice, frozen snow that had initially melted on a warm road surface, ice and snow slippery coats etc., are high enough, especially in the forest-steppe zone. In the Black Sea Lowland among winter events the frozen snow that had initially melted on a warm road surface is most commonly observed, that is connected with high occurrence of the thaws. Because of increase in frequency of shower precipitation in all cities wet road surface is observed most frequently, especially in May and June; it must be taken into account for construction of roads, too. Monthly mean wind speed shows that in Odesa and Kharkiv significant increase in average monthly and yearly wind speeds are observed, by 0,5-1 m/s in comparison with the period of 1961 to 1990. On the contrary, in Dnipropetrovsk, wind speed decreases by 0,7 m/s. Frequency distribution of maximum wind speed shows that high wind speeds are more frequent in the winter months.

Historic Variations in Winter Indoor Domestic Temperatures and Potential Implications for Body Weight Gain

PubMed Central

Johnson, F.; Ucci, M.; Marmot, A.; Wardle, J.; Oreszczyn, T.; Summerfield, A.

2013-01-01

It has been argued that the amount of time spent by humans in thermoneutral environments has increased in recent decades. This paper examines evidence of historic changes in winter domestic temperatures in industrialised countries. Future trajectories for indoor thermal comfort are also explored. Whilst methodological differences across studies make it difficult to compare data and accurately estimate the absolute size of historic changes in indoor domestic temperatures, data analysis does suggest an upward trend, particularly in bedrooms. The variations in indoor winter residential temperatures might have been further exacerbated in some countries by a temporary drop in demand temperatures due to the 1970s energy crisis, as well as by recent changes in the building stock. In the United Kingdom, for example, spot measurement data indicate that an increase of up to 1.3°C per decade in mean dwelling winter indoor temperatures may have occurred from 1978 to 1996. The findings of this review paper are also discussed in the context of their significance for human health and well-being. In particular, historic indoor domestic temperature trends are discussed in conjunction with evidence on the links between low ambient temperatures, body energy expenditure and weight gain. PMID:26321874

Nitric oxide emissions from soils amended with municipal waste biosolids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roelle, Paul A.; Aneja, Viney P.

Land spreading nitrogen-rich municipal waste biosolids (NO 3--N<256 mg N kg -1 dry weight, NH 3-N˜23,080 mg N kg -1 dry weight, Total Kjeldahl N˜41,700 mg N kg -1 dry weight) to human food and non-food chain land is a practice followed throughout the US. This practice may lead to the recovery and utilization of the nitrogen by vegetation, but it may also lead to emissions of biogenic nitric oxide (NO), which may enhance ozone pollution in the lower levels of the troposphere. Recent global estimates of biogenic NO emissions from soils are cited in the literature, which are based on field measurements of NO emissions from various agricultural and non-agricultural fields. However, biogenic emissions of NO from soils amended with biosolids are lacking. Utilizing a state-of-the-art mobile laboratory and a dynamic flow-through chamber system, in-situ concentrations of nitric oxide (NO) were measured during the spring/summer of 1999 and winter/spring of 2000 from an agricultural soil which is routinely amended with municipal waste biosolids. The average NO flux for the late spring/summer time period (10 June 1999-5 August 1999) was 69.4±34.9 ng N m -2 s -1. Biosolids were applied during September 1999 and the field site was sampled again during winter/spring 2000 (28 February 2000-9 March 2000), during which the average flux was 3.6±1.7 ng N m -2 s -1. The same field site was sampled again in late spring (2-9 June 2000) and the average flux was 64.8±41.0 ng N m -2 s -1. An observationally based model, developed as part of this study, found that summer accounted for 60% of the yearly emission while fall, winter and spring accounted for 20%, 4% and 16% respectively. Field experiments were conducted which indicated that the application of biosolids increases the emissions of NO and that techniques to estimate biogenic NO emissions would, on a yearly average, underestimate the NO flux from this field by a factor of 26. Soil temperature and % water filled pore space (%WFPS) were observed to be significant variables for predicting NO emissions, however %WFPS was found to be most significant during high soil temperature conditions. In the range of pH values found at this site (5.8±0.3), pH was not observed to be a significant parameter in predicting NO emissions.

Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water temperature as a function of increasing air temperatures and rising sea level for the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Annual average air temperature in the Yaquina watershed is expected to increase about 0.3 deg C per decade by 2040-2069. An air temperature increase of 3 deg C in the Yaquina watershed is likely to result in estuarine water temperature increasing by 0.7 to 1.6 deg C. Largest water temperature increases are expected in the upper portion of the estuary, while sea level rise may ameliorate some of the warming in the lower portion of the estuary. Smallest changes in water temperature are predicted to occur in the summer, and maximum changes during the winter and spring. Increases in air temperature may result in an increase in the number of days per year that the 7-day maximum average temperature exceeds 18 deg C (criterion for protection of rearing and migration of salmonids and trout) as well as other water quality concerns. In the upstream portion of the estuary, a 4 deg C increase in air temperature is predicted to cause an increase of 40 days not meeting the temperature criterion, while in the lower estuary the increase will depend upon rate of sea level rise (rang

Arctic ozone depletion in 2002-2003 measured by ASUR and comparison with POAM observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, Jayanarayanan; KleinböHl, Armin; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Bremer, Holger; Küllmann, Harry; Notholt, Justus; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Tripathi, Omprakash; Nikulin, Grigory

2011-11-01

We present ozone loss estimated from airborne measurements taken during January-February and March in the Arctic winter 2002/2003. The first half of the winter was characterized by unusually cold temperatures and the second half by a major stratospheric sudden warming around 15-18 January 2003. The potential vorticity maps show a vortex split in the lower stratosphere during the major warming (MW) in late January and during the minor warming in mid-February due to wave 1 amplification. However, the warming can be termed as a vortex displacement event as there was no vortex split during the MW period at 10 hPa. Very low temperatures, large areas of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), and high chlorine activation triggered significant ozone loss in the early winter, as the vortex moved to the midlatitude regions. The ozone depletion derived from the ASUR measurements sampled inside the vortex, in conjunction with the Mimosa-Chim model tracer, shows a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.2 ppmv at 450-500 K by late March. The partial column loss derived from the ASUR ozone profiles reaches up to 61 ± 4 DU in 400-550 K in the same period. The evolution of ozone and ozone loss assessed from the ASUR measurements is in very good agreement with POAM observations. The reduction in ozone estimated from the POAM measurements shows a similar maximum of 1.3 ± 0.2 ppmv at 400-500 K or 63 ± 4 DU in 400-550 K in late March. Our study reveals that the Arctic winter 2002/2003 was unique as it had three minor warmings and a MW, yet showed large loss in ozone. No such feature was observed in any other Arctic winter in the 1989-2010 period. In addition, an unusually large ozone loss in December, around 0.5 ± 0.2 ppmv at 450-500 K or 12 ± 1 DU in 400-550 K, was estimated for the first time in the Arctic. A careful and detailed diagnosis with all available published results for this winter exhibits an average ozone loss of 1.5 ± 0.3 ppmv at 450-500 K or 65 ± 5 DU in 400-550 K by the end of March, which exactly matches the ozone depletion derived from the ASUR, POAM and model data. The early ozone loss together with considerable loss afterwards put the warm Arctic winter 2002/2003 amongst the moderately cold winters in terms of the significance of the ozone loss.

Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

PubMed

Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

2016-02-01

Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

Seasonal temperature variation around the mesopause inferred from a VHF meteor radar at King Sejong Station (62S, 59W), Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yongha; Kim, Jeong-Han; Lee, Changsup; Jee, Gun-Hwa

A VHF meteor radar, installed at King Sejong Station in March, 2007, has been detecting echoes from more than 20,000 meteors per day. Meteor echoes are decayed typically within seconds as meteors spread away by atmospheric diffusion. The diffusion coefficients can thus be obtained from decay times of meteor echo signals, providing with information on the atmospheric temperatures and pressures at meteor altitudes from 70 to 100 km. In this study, we present altitude profiles of 15-min averaged diffusion coefficients in each month, which clearly show a minimum at 80 - 85 km. The minimum appears at higher altitude during austral summer than winter, and seems to be near the lower level of two temperature minimum structure around the mesopause seen by TIMED/SABER data at high latitudes. The higher mesopause level (95-100 km) of the SABER data does not appear in our diffusion profiles probably because it is too close the limit of meaningful diffusion coefficients that can be derived from meteor decay detection. In order to understand temperature variation around the mesopause more directly, we will discuss various methods to extract temperature profiles from the diffusion profiles. We will also present monthly averaged OH and O2 airglow temperatures observed at the same site, and compare them with those derived from the meteor radar observation.

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, E.G.; Todd, Walter M.; Coffeen, C.

2002-01-01

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutrient losses from Fall and Winter-applied manure: Effects of timing and soil temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects both the infiltration of meltwater and precipitation, and nutrient cycling. The objectives of this study were to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall and winter-applied dairy manure based on the soil temperature at t...

Nutrient losses from fall- and winter-applied manure: effects of timing and soil temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature is a major environmental factor that affects meltwater and precipitation infiltration and nutrient cycling. The objective of this study was to determine nutrient losses in runoff and leachate from fall- and winter-applied dairy manure as affected by soil temperature at the time of a...

Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 6; Verification of Three-Dimensional Free-Surface Model at Anclote Anchorage; [environment impact of thermal discharges from power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Tuann, S. Y.; Lee, C. R.

1980-01-01

The free-surface model presented is for tidal estuaries and coastal regions where ambient tidal forces play an important role in the dispersal of heated water. The model is time dependent, three dimensional, and can handle irregular bottom topography. The vertical stretching coordinate is adopted for better treatment of kinematic condition at the water surface. The results include surface elevation, velocity, and temperature. The model was verified at the Anclote Anchorage site of Florida Power Company. Two data bases at four tidal stages for winter and summer conditions were used to verify the model. Differences between measured and predicted temperatures are on an average of less than 1 C.

Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.

Temperature changes in Poland from the 16th to the 20th centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przybylak, Rajmund; Majorowicz, Jacek; Wójcik, Gabriel; Zielski, Andrzej; Choryczewski, Waldemar; Marciniak, Kazimierz; Nowosad, Wiesaw; Oliski, Piotr; Syta, Krzysztof

2005-05-01

A standardized tree-ring width chronology of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along with different types of documentary evidence (e.g. annals, chronicles, diaries, private correspondence, records of public administration, early newspapers) have been used to reconstruct air temperature in Poland. The ground surface temperature (GST) history has been reconstructed based on the continuous temperature logs from 13 wells, using a new method developed recently by Harris and Chapman (1998; Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 7371-7383) which is compared with the functional space inversion (FSI) method applied to all available Polish temperature-depth profiles analysed before.Response function calculations conducted for trees growing in Poland (except in mountainous regions) reveal a statistically significant correlation between the annual ring widths of the Scots pine and the monthly mean air temperatures, particularly from February and March, but also from January and April. Therefore, it was only possible to reconstruct the mean January-April air temperature.The following periods featured a warm late winter/early spring: 1530-90, 1656-70 (the warmest period), 1820-50, 1910-40, and after 1985. On the other hand, a cold January-April occurred in the following periods: 1600-50, 1760-75, 1800-15, 1880-1900, and 1950-80.Reconstructions of thermal conditions using documentary evidence were carried out for winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) from 1501 to 1840 and, therefore, their results cannot be directly compared with reconstructions based on tree-ring widths. Winter temperatures in this period were colder than air temperature in the 20th century. On the other hand, historical summers were generally warmer than those occurring in the 20th century. Such situations dominated in the 16th and 17th centuries, as well as at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. Throughout almost the entire period from 1501 to 1840, the thermal continentality of the climate in Poland was greater than in the 20th century.GST reconstructions show that its average pre-instrumental level (1500-1778) is about 0.9-1.5 °C lower than the mean air temperature for the period 1951-81. Lower amplitude of GST warming (0.9 +/- 0.1 °C) results from the individual and simultaneous inversions of well temperature data using the FSI method. A very good correspondence of the results has been found between series of annual mean GSTs from the FSI method and mean seasonal air temperatures reconstructed using documentary evidence.

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Temperature-Related Death and Illness. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis

2016-01-01

Based on present-day sensitivity to heat, an increase of thousands to tens of thousands of premature heat-related deaths in the summer and a decrease of premature cold-related deaths in the winter are projected each year as a result of climate change by the end of the century. Future adaptation will very likely reduce these impacts (see Changing Tolerance to Extreme Heat Finding). The reduction in cold-related deaths is projected to be smaller than the increase in heat-related deaths in most regions. Days that are hotter than usual in the summer or colder than usual in the winter are both associated with increased illness and death. Mortality effects are observed even for small differences from seasonal average temperatures. Because small temperature differences occur much more frequently than large temperature differences, not accounting for the effect of these small differences would lead to underestimating the future impact of climate change. An increase in population tolerance to extreme heat has been observed over time. Changes in this tolerance have been associated with increased use of air conditioning, improved social responses, and or physiological acclimatization, among other factors. Expected future increases in this tolerance will reduce the projected increase in deaths from heat. Older adults and children have a higher risk of dying or becoming ill due to extreme heat. People working outdoors, the socially isolated and economically disadvantaged, those with chronic illnesses, as well as some communities of color, are also especially vulnerable to death or illness.

Effects of season on sleep and skin temperature in the elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto-Mizuno, Kazue; Tsuzuki, Kazuyo

2010-07-01

The effects of season on sleep and skin temperature (Tsk) in 19 healthy, elderly volunteers were investigated. Measurements were obtained in summer, winter, and fall, and activity levels were monitored using a wrist actigraph system for five consecutive days. The temperature and humidity of the bedrooms of the subjects’ homes were measured continuously for five days. During actigraphic measurement, Tsk during sleep was measured for two nights. The bedroom temperature and humidity significantly increased in summer compared to winter and fall. In summer, the total sleep time decreased (mean ± SE min; summer, 350.8 ± 15.7; winter, 426.5 ± 14.2; fall, 403.2 ± 16.4) and wakefulness increased ( P < 0.003) compared to those in fall or winter. The sleep efficiency index that was derived from wrist actigraphy was significantly decreased ( P < 0.001) in summer (81.4 ± 2.9%) compared with winter (91.6 ± 1.3%) or fall (90.2 ± 1.2%). The forehead Tsk significantly increased, while the chest and thigh Tsks were decreased in summer compared to those in fall or winter. These results suggest that, in the elderly, sleep is disturbed in summer more than in other seasons, and that this disturbance is related to fluctuations in Tsk.

Seasonal and temperature modifications of the association between fine particulate air pollution and cardiovascular hospitalization in New York state.

PubMed

Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Hwang, Syni-An; Kinney, Patrick L; Lin, Shao

2017-02-01

It is known that extreme temperature and ambient air pollution are each independently associated with human health outcomes. However, findings from the few studies that have examined modified effects by seasons and the interaction between air pollution and temperature on health endpoints are inconsistent. This study examines the effects of short-term PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter) on hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), its modifications by season and temperature, and whether these effects are heterogeneous across different regions in New York State (NYS). We used daily average temperature and PM 2.5 concentrations as exposure indicators and performed a time series analysis with a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for possible confounders, such as time-relevant variables and dew point, for CVDs in NYS, 1991-2006. Stratification parametric models were applied to evaluate the modifying effects by seasons and temperature. Across the whole year, a 10-μg/m 3 increment in PM 2.5 concentration accounted for a 1.37% increase in CVDs (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90%, 1.84%) in New York City, Long Island & Hudson. The PM 2.5 effect was strongest in winter, with an additional 2.06% (95% CI: 1.33%, 2.80%) increase in CVDs observed per 10-μg/m 3 increment in PM 2.5 . Temperature modified the PM 2.5 effects on CVDs, and these modifications by temperature on PM 2.5 effects on CVDs were found at low temperature days. These associations were heterogeneous across four PM 2.5 concentration regions. PM 2.5 was positively associated with CVD hospitalizations. The short-term PM 2.5 effect varied with season and temperature levels, and stronger effects were observed in winter and at low temperature days. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of winter cold duration on spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Lehmann, Philipp; Pruisscher, Peter; Leimar, Olof

2015-12-01

The effect of spring temperature on spring phenology is well understood in a wide range of taxa. However, studies on how winter conditions may affect spring phenology are underrepresented. Previous work on Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly) has shown population-specific reaction norms of spring development in relation to spring temperature and a speeding up of post-winter development with longer winter durations. In this experiment, we examined the effects of a greater and ecologically relevant range of winter durations on post-winter pupal development of A. cardamines of two populations from the United Kingdom and two from Sweden. By analyzing pupal weight loss and metabolic rate, we were able to separate the overall post-winter pupal development into diapause duration and post-diapause development. We found differences in the duration of cold needed to break diapause among populations, with the southern UK population requiring a shorter duration than the other populations. We also found that the overall post-winter pupal development time, following removal from winter cold, was negatively related to cold duration, through a combined effect of cold duration on diapause duration and on post-diapause development time. Longer cold durations also lead to higher population synchrony in hatching. For current winter durations in the field, the A. cardamines population of southern UK could have a reduced development rate and lower synchrony in emergence because of short winters. With future climate change, this might become an issue also for other populations. Differences in winter conditions in the field among these four populations are large enough to have driven local adaptation of characteristics controlling spring phenology in response to winter duration. The observed phenology of these populations depends on a combination of winter and spring temperatures; thus, both must be taken into account for accurate predictions of phenology.

Variations in temperature acclimation effects on glycogen storage, hypoxia tolerance and swimming performance with seasonal acclimatization in juvenile Chinese crucian carp.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Cao, Zhen-Dong; Fu, Shi-Jian

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to test whether temperature acclimation (10 vs 20 °C) effects on tissue glycogen content, hypoxia tolerance, and swimming performance of Chinese crucian carp (Carassius auratus) varied with seasonal acclimatization (winter vs spring) and potential combined interactions. Both the routine metabolic rate (MO(2rout)) and critical oxygen tension (P(crit)) of the MO(2rout) increased significantly with temperature, whereas the seasonal acclimatization showed no significant effect. Only the high temperature group that acclimatized in spring showed a significantly higher aquatic surface respiration (ASR(crit)) value compared with the other three groups. Fish in spring tended to show ASR behavior at higher oxygen tension compared with those in winter, which might have been caused by a more active lifestyle. Time to show LOE prolonged by 25-34% under low temperature. Spring fish showed 20% shorter LOE duration at 10 °C, whereas the difference tended to vanish at 20 °C. Glycogen contents in both liver and muscle were higher in winter than spring. The liver and muscle glycogen content decreased by 5-42% after exposure to anoxic conditions, whereas the magnitude was much smaller in spring. When fish swam in normoxic conditions, fish in higher temperatures showed higher critical swimming speed (Ucrit) than low temperature (5.49 vs 3.74 BL s(-1) in winter and 4.27 vs 3.21 BL s(-1) in spring), whereas fish in winter also showed higher U(crit) than fish in spring for each temperature. However, when fish swam in hypoxic waters, fish in higher temperatures showed a more profound decrease (52-61%) in U(crit) compared to those in lower temperature (25-27%). Fish in lower temperatures that had acclimatized in winter showed the highest U(crit), which might have been caused by higher glycogen storage. The present study suggested that both glycogen storage and alterations in lifestyle had profound effects on hypoxia tolerance and swimming performance, which resulted in a profound difference between seasons and acclimation temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the relationship between the monthly temperatures and weather types in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Angulo, Dhais; Trigo, Ricardo; Nicola, Cortesi; José Carlos, González-Hidalgo

2016-04-01

In this study, the relationship between the atmospheric circulation and weather types and the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula is modeled (period 1950-2010). The temperature data used were obtained from a high spatial resolution (10km x 10km) dataset (MOTEDAS dataset, Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2015a). In addition, a dataset of Portuguese temperatures was used (obtained from the Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere). The weather type classification used was the one developed by Jenkinson and Collison, which was adapted for the Iberian Peninsula by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), using Sea Level Pressure data from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset (period 1951-2010). The analysis of the behaviour of monthly temperatures based on the weather types was carried out using a stepwise regression procedure of type forward to estimate temperatures in each cell of the considered grid, for each month, and for both maximum and minimum monthly average temperatures. The model selects the weather types that best estimate the temperatures. From the validation model it was obtained the error distribution in the time (months) and space (Iberian Peninsula). The results show that best estimations are obtained for minimum temperatures, during the winter months and in coastal areas. González-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi, C. (2015a): MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain and the trend in temperature (1951-2010). International Journal of Climatology 31, 715-731. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4298

Sources of secondary organic aerosols over North China Plain in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, L.; Li, G.; Tie, X.; Junji, C.; Long, X.

2017-12-01

Organic aerosol (OA) concentrations are simulated over the North China Plain (NCP) from 10th to 26th January, 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to chemistry (WRF-CHEM), with the goal of examining the impact of heterogeneous HONO sources on atmospheric oxidation capacity and consequently on SOA formation and SOA formation from different pathways in winter. Generally, the model well reproduced the spatial and temporal distribution of PM2.5, SO2, NO2, and O3 concentrations. The heterogeneous HONO formation contributed a major part of atmospheric HONO concentrations in Beijing. The heterogeneous HONO sources significantly increased the daily maximum OH concentrations by 260% on average in Beijing, which enhanced the atmospheric oxidation capacity and consequently SOA concentrations by 80% in Beijing on average. Under severe haze pollution on January 16th 2014, the regional average HONO concentration over NCP was 0.86 ppb, which increased SOA concentration by 68% on average. The average mass fractions of ASOA (SOA from oxidation of anthropogenic VOCs), BSOA (SOA from oxidation of biogenic VOCs), PSOA (SOA from oxidation of evaporated POA), and GSOA (SOA from irreversible uptake of glyoxal and methylglyoxal) during the simulation period over NCP were 24%, 5%, 26% and 45%, respectively. GSOA contributed most to the total SOA mass over NCP in winter. The model sensitivity simulation revealed that GSOA in winter was mainly from primary residential sources. The regional average of GSOA from primary residential sources constituted 87% of total GSOA mass.

Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

Inter-seasonal and spatial distribution of ground-level greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) over Nagpur in India and their management roadmap.

PubMed

Majumdar, Deepanjan; Rao, Padma; Maske, Nilam

2017-03-01

Ground-level concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) were monitored over three seasons, i.e., post-monsoon (September-October), winter (January-February), and summer (May-June) for 1 year during 2013-2014 in Nagpur City in India. The selected gases had moderate to high variation both spatially (residential, commercial, traffic intersections, residential cum commercial sites) and temporally (at 7:00, 13:00, 18:00, and 23:00 hours in all three seasons). Concentrations of gases were randomly distributed diurnally over city in all seasons, and there was no specific increasing or decreasing trend with time in a day. Average CO 2 and N 2 O concentrations in winter were higher over post-monsoon and summer while CH 4 had highest average concentration in summer. Observed concentrations of CO 2 were predominantly above global average of 400 ppmv while N 2 O and CH 4 concentrations frequently dropped down below global average of 327 ppbv and 1.8 ppmv, respectively. Two-tailed Student's t test indicated that post-monsoon CO 2 concentrations were statistically different from summer but not so from winter, while difference between summer and winter concentrations was statistically significant (P < 0.05). CH 4 concentrations in all seasons were statistically at par to each other. In case of N 2 O, concentrations in post-monsoon were statistically different from summer but not so from winter, while difference between summer and winter concentrations was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Average ground-level concentrations of the gases calculated for three seasons together were higher in commercial areas. Environmental management priorities vis a vis greenhouse gas emissions in the city are also discussed.

Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Ballester, Joan; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2011-06-21

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity of human societies to warming temperatures is, however, a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Here we show the link between temperature, humidity and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 European regions, which are subsequently used to infer transient projections of mortality under state-of-the-art high-resolution greenhouse gas scenario simulations. Our analyses point to a change in the seasonality of mortality, with maximum monthly incidence progressively shifting from winter to summer. The results also show that the rise in heat-related mortality will start to completely compensate the reduction of deaths from cold during the second half of the century, amounting to an average drop in human lifespan of up 3-4 months in 2070-2100. Nevertheless, projections suggest that human lifespan might indeed increase if a substantial degree of adaptation to warm temperatures takes place.

Lowering Temperature is the Trigger for Glycogen Build-Up and Winter Fasting in Crucian Carp (Carassius carassius).

PubMed

Varis, Joonas; Haverinen, Jaakko; Vornanen, Matti

2016-02-01

Seasonal changes in physiology of vertebrate animals are triggered by environmental cues including temperature, day-length and oxygen availability. Crucian carp (Carassius carassius) tolerate prolonged anoxia in winter by using several physiological adaptations that are seasonally activated. This study examines which environmental cues are required to trigger physiological adjustments for winter dormancy in crucian carp. To this end, crucian carp were exposed to changing environmental factors under laboratory conditions: effects of declining water temperature, shortening day-length and reduced oxygen availability, separately and in different combinations, were examined on glycogen content and enzyme activities involved in feeding (alkaline phosphatase, AP) and glycogen metabolism (glycogen synthase, GyS; glycogen phosphorylase, GP). Lowering temperature induced a fall in activity of AP and a rise in glycogen content and rate of glycogen synthesis. Relative mass of the liver, and glycogen concentration of liver, muscle and brain increased with lowering temperature. Similarly activity of GyS in muscle and expression of GyS transcripts in brain were up-regulated by lowering temperature. Shortened day-length and oxygen availability had practically no effects on measured variables. We conclude that lowering temperature is the main trigger in preparation for winter anoxia in crucian carp.

Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.

PubMed

Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof

2017-07-01

Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Agricultural Practice and Regional Climate Interactions in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, H. S.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2003-12-01

Regional climate affects the timing of harvest for rain-fed crops. In response to dry conditions, for example, farmers may harvest crops earlier than they do under wet conditions. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate conditions. We studied the dynamic relationship between land use practice, i.e. winter wheat harvest, and regional climate by applying a coupled climate (MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to the ARM-CART region of the Southern Great Plains. We compared early and late harvest scenarios, with winter wheat harvested on June 5 and July 5, respectively. Winter wheat is grown in a fairly uniform belt that accounts for 20% of the total land area over the domain of the ARM-CART. Results showed that harvest dramatically affects energy, momentum, and water fluxes. Regionally-averaged, 2 m air temperatures were 0.5-1\\deg C warmer in the early- compared to late-harvest case, with peak warming of 5\\deg C centered over the harvested area. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm. Near-surface soil water-filled pore space was reduced by 7% across the region, with a peak drying of 22% centered over the harvested area. Soils were up to 10\\deg C warmer, with area-averaged warming of ~0.6\\deg C at mid-day two weeks after harvest. Differences between scenarios were greatest during an initial two-week dry period. A subsequent wet period greatly reduced these differences.

Summer and winter living coccolithophores in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, X. Y.; Feng, Y. Y.; Jin, S. F.; Jiang, W. S.; Jin, H. Y.; Chen, J. F.; Sun, J.

2013-05-01

To date, very little information on living coccolithophores species composition and distribution, especially the vertical profile has been reported around the world. This paper tries to fill this gap by descripting on living coccolithophores (LCs) distribution in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea in summer and winter time in detail, and its relationship among enviromental factors by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). We carried out the investigations on LC distribution in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea in July and December 2011. 210 samples from different depths were collected from 44 stations in summer and 217 samples were collected from 45 stations in winter. Totally 20 taxa belonging to coccolithophyceae were identified using a polarized microscope at the 1000 × magnification. The dominant species of the two seasons were Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Emiliania huxleyi, Helicosphaera carteri, and Algirosphaera robusta. In summer the abundance of cells and coccoliths ranged 0 ~ 176.40 cells mL-1, and 0 ~ 2144.98 coccoliths mL-1, with the average values of 8.45 cells mL-1, and 265.42 coccoliths mL-1, respectively. And in winter the abundance of cells and coccoliths ranged 0 ~ 71.66 cells mL-1, and 0 ~ 4698.99 coccoliths mL-1, with the average values of 13.91 cells mL-1 and 872.56 coccoliths mL-1 respectively. In summer the LCs in surface layer were mainly observed on the coastal belt and southern part of the survey area. The highest abundance was found at the bloom station. In winter the LCs in surface layer had high value in the continental shelf area of section P. The comparison among section A, section F, section P and section E indicated lower species diversity and less abundance in the Yellow Sea than those of the East China Sea in both seasons. Temperature and the nitrate concentration may be the major environmental factors controlling the distribution and species composition of LCs in the studying area based on CCA.

Sources of Nitrous Acid, Formaldehyde, and Hydroxyl Radical in Doha, Qatar.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackermann, Luis; Rappenglueck, Bernhard; Ayoub, Mohammed

2017-04-01

One of the most important species in the atmosphere is the hydroxyl radical (OH), due to its role controlling the oxidizing capacity of an air shed. The main formation processes of OH include the photolysis of ozone (O3), nitrous acid (HONO), formaldehyde (HCHO), and the ozonolysis of alkenes. Still, the sources of HONO in the atmosphere are not sufficiently well known, with indications that heterogeneous reactions on surfaces may contribute to the observed concentrations. The city of Doha in Qatar presents a unique opportunity to explore photochemical processes including the effects of high particulates concentrations under extreme weather conditions (high temperatures and humidity) and complex emission sources. Two Intensive Observational Periods (IOP) were conducted in Doha in 2016, one during the winter and the other during the summer. These consisted of meteorological measurements, ozone (O3), nitrous acid (HONO), formaldehyde (HCHO), nitrogen monoxide (NO), direct nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), as well as particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm and 2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5). In addition photolysis rates of HONO, HCHO, NO2, and singlet oxygen (O1D) were measured. The photostationary state concentration of OH was calculated from its known sources and sinks. The maximum hourly average concentration of OH was determined to be around 1.1 ppt for summer and 0.5 ppt for winter IOP. For the 24-hr average, the photolysis of HONO was the main precursor for OH production with 54.3 % and 72.7 % (summer and winter IOP), while the photolysis of O3 was responsible for 23.8 % and 19.7 % and the photolysis of HCHO accounted for 21.9 % and 7.6 % (summer and winter IOP, respectively). In this study we present source apportionment analysis for the radical precursors HONO and HCHO during the winter and summer IOP and its diurnal variation and elucidate their impact on OH production. We also infer NOx vs VOC limitation of O3 production from NO2 and HCHO observations.

Thermal, chemical, and optical properties of Crater Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, G.L.; Hoffman, R.L.; McIntire, D.C.; Buktenica, M.W.; Girdner, S.F.

2007-01-01

Crater Lake covers the floor of the Mount Mazama caldera that formed 7700 years ago. The lake has a surface area of 53 km2 and a maximum depth of 594 m. There is no outlet stream and surface inflow is limited to small streams and springs. Owing to its great volume and heat, the lake is not covered by snow and ice in winter unlike other lakes in the Cascade Range. The lake is isothermal in winter except for a slight increase in temperature in the deep lake from hyperadiabatic processes and inflow of hydrothermal fluids. During winter and spring the water column mixes to a depth of about 200-250 m from wind energy and convection. Circulation of the deep lake occurs periodically in winter and spring when cold, near-surface waters sink to the lake bottom; a process that results in the upwelling of nutrients, especially nitrate-N, into the upper strata of the lake. Thermal stratification occurs in late summer and fall. The maximum thickness of the epilimnion is about 20 m and the metalimnion extends to a depth of about 100 m. Thus, most of the lake volume is a cold hypolimnion. The year-round near-bottom temperature is about 3.5??C. Overall, hydrothermal fluids define and temporally maintain the basic water quality characteristics of the lake (e.g., pH, alkalinity and conductivity). Total phosphorus and orthophosphate-P concentrations are fairly uniform throughout the water column, where as total Kjeldahl-N and ammonia-N are highest in concentration in the upper lake. Concentrations of nitrate-N increase with depth below 200 m. No long-term changes in water quality have been detected. Secchi disk (20-cm) clarity varied seasonally and annually, but was typically highest in June and lowest in August. During the current study, August Secchi disk clarity readings averaged about 30 m. The maximum individual clarity reading was 41.5 m in June 1997. The lowest reading was 18.1 m in July 1995. From 1896 (white-dinner plate) to 2003, the average August Secchi disk reading was about 30 m. No long-term changes in the Secchi disk clarity were observed. Average turbidity of the water column (2-550 m) between June and September from 1991 to 2000 as measured by a transmissometer ranged between 88.8% and 90.7%. The depth of 1% of the incident solar radiation during thermal stratification varied annually between 80 m and 100 m. Both of these measurements provided additional evidence about the exceptional clarity of Crater Lake. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

UARS MLS Observations of Lower Stratospheric ClO in the 1992-93 and 1993-94 Arctic Winter Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, J. W.; Manney, G. L.; Read, W. G.; Froidevaux, L.; Flower, D. A.; Jarnot, R. F.

1995-01-01

UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements of lower stratospheric ClO during the 1992-93 and 1993-94 Arctic winters are presented. Enhanced ClO in the 1992-93 winter was first observed in early December, and extensively during February when temperatures were continually low enough for PSCs. Sporadic episodes of enhanced ClO were observed for most of the 1993-94 winter as minimum temperatures hovered near the PSC threshold, with largest ClO amounts occurring in early March after a sudden deep cooling in late February.

Effect of summer heat environment on body temperature, estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cow.

PubMed

Sakatani, Miki; Balboula, Ahmed Z; Yamanaka, Kenichi; Takahashi, Masashi

2012-05-01

This study investigated the effect of summer heat environment on estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cows. A total of 13 non-lactating Japanese Black cows (summer: 9, winter: 4) were examined. Body temperature was measured rectally and intravaginally using a thermometer and data logger, respectively. Estrous behavior was monitored using a radiotelemetric pedometer that recorded walking activity. Rectal temperatures were higher during summer than winter (P<0.001). There was an acute increase in vaginal temperature at the onset of estrus during winter but such an increase was not observed during summer. Walking activity during estrus decreased dramatically in the summer compared to the winter. Duration of estrous cycle was longer in summer (23.4 days, P<0.05) than winter (21.5 days), and the subsequent rise in progesterone concentrations following estrus tended to be delayed in summer. The level of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in peripheral blood cells was higher during summer (P<0.05), while the levels of superoixde dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione were lower (P<0.05). These results indicate that high ambient temperature during summer increases both body temperature and oxidative stress, and also reduces signs of estrus in Japanese Black cows. © 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Reproductive arrest and stress resistance in winter-acclimated Drosophila suzukii.

PubMed

Toxopeus, Jantina; Jakobs, Ruth; Ferguson, Laura V; Gariepy, Tara D; Sinclair, Brent J

2016-06-01

Overwintering insects must survive the multiple-stress environment of winter, which includes low temperatures, reduced food and water availability, and cold-active pathogens. Many insects overwinter in diapause, a developmental arrest associated with high stress tolerance. Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), spotted wing drosophila, is an invasive agricultural pest worldwide. Its ability to overwinter and therefore establish in temperate regions could have severe implications for fruit crop industries. We demonstrate here that laboratory populations of Canadian D. suzukii larvae reared under short-day, low temperature, conditions develop into dark 'winter morph' adults similar to those reported globally from field captures, and observed by us in southern Ontario, Canada. These winter-acclimated adults have delayed reproductive maturity, enhanced cold tolerance, and can remain active at low temperatures, although they do not have the increased desiccation tolerance or survival of fungal pathogen challenges that might be expected from a more heavily melanised cuticle. Winter-acclimated female D. suzukii have underdeveloped ovaries and altered transcript levels of several genes associated with reproduction and stress. While superficially indicative of reproductive diapause, the delayed reproductive maturity of winter-acclimated D. suzukii appears to be temperature-dependent, not regulated by photoperiod, and is thus unlikely to be 'true' diapause. The traits of this 'winter morph', however, likely facilitate overwintering in southern Canada, and have probably contributed to the global success of this fly as an invasive species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polar processing in a split vortex: early winter Arctic ozone loss in 2012/13

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manney, G. L.; Lawrence, Z. D.; Santee, M. L.; Livesey, N. J.; Lambert, A.; Pitts, M. C.

2015-02-01

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in early January 2013 caused the polar vortex to split. After the lower stratospheric vortex split on 8 January, the two offspring vortices - one over Canada and the other over Siberia - remained intact, well-confined, and largely at latitudes that received sunlight until they reunited at the end of January. As the SSW began, temperatures abruptly rose above chlorine activation thresholds throughout the lower stratosphere. The vortex was very disturbed prior to the SSW, and was exposed to much more sunlight than usual in December 2012 and January 2013. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) nitric acid (HNO3) data and observations from CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) indicate extensive polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) activity, with evidence of PSCs containing solid nitric acid trihydrate particles during much of December 2012. Consistent with the sunlight exposure and PSC activity, MLS observations show that chlorine monoxide (ClO) became enhanced early in December. Despite the cessation of PSC activity with the onset of the SSW, enhanced vortex ClO persisted until mid-February, indicating lingering chlorine activation. The smaller Canadian offspring vortex had lower temperatures, lower HNO3, lower hydrogen chloride (HCl), and higher ClO in late January than the Siberian vortex. Chlorine deactivation began later in the Canadian than in the Siberian vortex. HNO3 remained depressed within the vortices after temperatures rose above the PSC existence threshold, and passive transport calculations indicate vortex-averaged denitrification of about 4 ppbv; the resulting low HNO3 values persisted until the vortex dissipated in mid-February. Consistent with the strong chlorine activation and exposure to sunlight, MLS measurements show rapid ozone loss commencing in mid-December and continuing through January. Lagrangian transport estimates suggest ~ 0.7-0.8 ppmv (parts per million by volume) vortex-averaged chemical ozone loss by late January near 500 K (~ 21 km), with substantial loss occurring from ~ 450 to 550 K. The surface area of PSCs in December 2012 was larger than that in any other December observed by CALIPSO. As a result of denitrification, HNO3 abundances in 2012/13 were among the lowest in the MLS record for the Arctic. ClO enhancement was much greater in December 2012 through mid-January 2013 than that at the corresponding time in any other Arctic winter observed by MLS. Furthermore, reformation of HCl appeared to play a greater role in chlorine deactivation than in more typical Arctic winters. Ozone loss in December 2012 and January 2013 was larger than any previously observed in those months. This pattern of exceptional early winter polar processing and ozone loss resulted from the unique combination of dynamical conditions associated with the early January 2013 SSW, namely unusually low temperatures in December 2012 and offspring vortices that remained well-confined and largely in sunlit regions for about a month after the vortex split.

Drivers of leaf-out phenology and their implications for species invasions: insights from Thoreau's Concord.

PubMed

Polgar, Caroline; Gallinat, Amanda; Primack, Richard B

2014-04-01

To elucidate climate-driven changes in leaf-out phenology and their implications for species invasions, we observed and experimentally manipulated leaf out of invasive and native woody plants in Concord, MA, USA. Using observations collected by Henry David Thoreau (1852-1860) and our own observations (2009-2013), we analyzed changes in leaf-out timing and sensitivity to temperature for 43 woody plant species. We experimentally tested winter chilling requirements of 50 species by exposing cut branches to warm indoor temperatures (22°C) during the winter and spring of 2013. Woody species are now leafing out an average of 18 d earlier than they did in the 1850s, and are advancing at a rate of 5 ± 1 d °C(-1) . Functional groups differ significantly in the duration of chilling they require to leaf out: invasive shrubs generally have weaker chilling requirements than native shrubs and leaf out faster in the laboratory and earlier in the field; native trees have the strongest chilling requirements. Our results suggest that invasive shrub species will continue to have a competitive advantage as the climate warms, because native plants are slower to respond to warming spring temperatures and, in the future, may not meet their chilling requirements. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

General-circulation-model simulations of future snowpack in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

1999-01-01

April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western US. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.

Air and Ground Surface Temperature Relations in a Mountainous Basin, Wolf Creek, Yukon Territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roadhouse, Emily A.

The links between climate and permafrost are well known, but the precise nature of the relationship between air and ground temperatures remains poorly understood, particularly in complex mountain environments. Although previous studies indicate that elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR) are the two leading factors contributing to the existence of permafrost at a given location, additional factors may also contribute significantly to the existence of mountain permafrost, including vegetation cover, snow accumulation and the degree to which individual mountain landscapes are prone to air temperature inversions. Current mountain permafrost models consider only elevation and aspect, and have not been able to deal with inversion effects in a systematic fashion. This thesis explores the relationship between air and ground surface temperatures and the presence of surface-based inversions at 27 sites within the Wolf Creek basin and surrounding area between 2001 and 2006, as a first step in developing an improved permafrost distribution TTOP model. The TTOP model describes the relationship between the mean annual air temperature and the temperature at the top of permafrost in terms of the surface and thermal offsets (Smith and Riseborough, 2002). Key components of this model are n-factors which relate air and ground climate by establishing the ratio between air and surface freezing (winter) and thawing (summer) degree-days, thus summarizing the surface energy balance on a seasonal basis. Here we examine (1) surface offsets and (2) freezing and thawing n-factor variability at a number of sites through altitudinal treeline in the southern Yukon. Thawing n-factors (nt) measured at individual sites remained relatively constant from one year to the next and may be related to land cover. During the winter, the insulating effect of a thick snow cover results in higher surface temperatures, while thin snow cover results in low surface temperatures more closely related to the winter air temperatures. The application of n-factor modeling techniques within the permafrost region, and the verification of these techniques for a range of natural surfaces, is essential to the determination of the thermal and physical response to potential climate warming in permafrost regions. The presence of temperature inversions presents a unique challenge to permafrost probability mapping in mountainous terrain. While elsewhere the existence of permafrost can be linearly related to elevation, the presence of frequent inversions challenges this assumption, affecting permafrost distribution in ways that the current modeling techniques cannot accurately predict. At sites across the Yukon, inversion-prone sites were predominantly situated in U-shaped valleys, although open slopes, mid-slope ridges and plains were also identified. Within the Wolf Creek basin and surrounding area, inversion episodes have a measurable effect on local air temperatures, occurring during the fall and winter seasons along the Mount Sima trail, and year-round in the palsa valley. Within the discontinuous permafrost zone, where average surface temperatures are often close to zero, even a relatively small change in temperature in the context of future climate change could have a widespread impact on permafrost distribution.

Use of Pavement Temperature Measurements for Winter Maintenance Decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Use of pavement temperature measurements for winter maintenance decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Use of Pavement Temperature Measurements for Winter Maintenance Decisions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

Formation of ice and frost on roadways and bridges presents a significant potential impediment to safe winter travel in Iowa. Roadway surface temperatures are not measured routinely by the National Weather Service and are not part of public forecasts...

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

New insights on plant phenological response to temperature revealed from long-term widespread observations in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Haicheng; Liu, Shuguang; Regnier, Pierre; Yuan, Wenping

2018-05-01

Constraints of temperature on spring plant phenology are closely related to plant growth, vegetation dynamics, and ecosystem carbon cycle. However, the effects of temperature on leaf onset, especially for winter chilling, are still not well understood. Using long-term, widespread in situ phenology observations collected over China for multiple plant species, this study analyzes the quantitative response of leaf onset to temperature, and compares empirical findings with existing theories and modeling approaches, as implemented in 18 phenology algorithms. Results show that the growing degree days (GDD) required for leaf onset vary distinctly among plant species and geographical locations as well as at organizational levels (species and community), pointing to diverse adaptation strategies. Chilling durations (CHD) needed for releasing bud dormancy decline monotonously from cold to warm areas with very limited interspecies variations. Results also reveal that winter chilling is a crucial component of phenology models, and its effect is better captured with an index that accounts for the inhomogeneous effectiveness of low temperature to chilling rate than with the conventional CHD index. The impact of spring warming on leaf onset is nonlinear, better represented by a logistical function of temperature than by the linear function currently implemented in biosphere models. The optimized base temperatures for thermal accumulation and the optimal chilling temperatures are species-dependent and average at 6.9 and 0.2°C, respectively. Overall, plants' chilling requirement is not a constant, and more chilling generally results in less requirement of thermal accumulation for leaf onset. Our results clearly demonstrate multiple deficiencies of the parameters (e.g., base temperature) and algorithms (e.g., method for calculating GDD) in conventional phenology models to represent leaf onset. Therefore, this study not only advances our mechanistic and quantitative understanding of temperature controls on leaf onset but also provides critical information for improving existing phenology models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Titan Temperature Lag Maps

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-02-18

This sequence of maps shows varying surface temperatures on Saturn moon Titan at two-year intervals, from 2004 to 2016. The measurements were made by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer CIRS instrument on NASA Cassini spacecraft. The maps show thermal infrared radiation (heat) coming from Titan's surface at a wavelength of 19 microns, a spectral window at which the moon's otherwise opaque atmosphere is mostly transparent. Temperatures have been averaged around the globe from east to west (longitudinally) to emphasize the seasonal variation across latitudes (from north to south). Black regions in the maps are areas for which there was no data. Titan's surface temperature changes slowly over the course of the Saturn system's long seasons, which each last seven and a half years. As on Earth, the amount of sunlight received at each latitude varies as the sun's illumination moves northward or southward over the course of the 30-year-long Saturnian year. When Cassini arrived at Saturn in 2004, Titan's southern hemisphere was in late summer and was therefore the warmest region. Shortly after the 2009 equinox, in 2010, temperatures were symmetrical across the northern and southern hemispheres, mimicking the distribution observed by Voyager 1 in 1980 (one Titan year earlier). Temperatures subsequently cooled in the south and rose in the north, as southern winter approached. While the overall trend in the temperature shift is clearly evident in these maps, there is narrow banding in several places that is an artifact of making the observations through Titan's atmosphere. The moon's dense, hazy envelope adds noise to the difficult measurement. Although it moves in latitude, the maximum measured temperature on Titan remains around -292 degrees Fahrenheit (-179.6 degrees Celsius, 93.6 Kelvin), with a minimum temperature at the winter pole only 6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 degrees Celsius or Kelvin) colder. This is a much smaller contrast than exists between Earth's warmest and coldest temperatures, which can vary by more than 200 degrees Fahrenheit, or more than 100 degrees Celsius. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20020

Investigating the potential impacts of local climate change on the meltwater supply of a small snow-fed mountain river system: A case study of the Animas River, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, C. A.

2010-12-01

The western US receives up to 80% of its annual streamflow from snowmelt fed river systems during the mid-to-late spring season. Changes in winter and spring air temperature and precipitation patterns have, however, begun to alter this sensitive hydroclimatological process, both in terms of the timing and magnitude of snowmelt events and the responding streamflow. Monitoring and planning for these changes in the future may well prove crucial for local water resource planners who traditionally rely on historical trends or means for water resource planning. Local-level water resource planners also often do not have the data or tools at the right resolution available to them for the same planning purposes. This goal of this research was to identify how changes in the local winter-spring climate may alter the hydrological response of a typical small mountain snowmelt fed river system, the Animas River in SW Colorado. To achieve this, a statistical downscaling technique was applied to increase the resolution of, and build a linear relationship between, historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data to surface level mean air temperature and precipitation for several climate stations located across the basin for 1950-2007. The same technique was then used to increase the resolution of two GCM scenarios from the NCAR CCSM3 model SRES-AR4 data runs (a 'business as usual’ or A1B scenario, and an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions or A2 scenario) using the same relationships between the historical upper atmospheric reanalysis data and the surface station climate data. Snowmelt streamflow magnitude and timing were then projected to 2099 based on their historical relationship to mean monthly winter and spring air temperature and precipitation before being compared to the historical averages. Results indicated a shift in the timing of the snowmelt streamflow to earlier in the spring, and a reduction in the magnitude of peak spring streamflow following increasing spring temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation across the basin. These techniques and methods may provide a starting framework for local-level water resource planners to monitor and prepare for any future changes to basinwide hydroclimatology.

Seasonal Patterns of Soil Respiration and Related Soil Biochemical Properties under Nitrogen Addition in Winter Wheat Field.

PubMed

Liang, Guopeng; Houssou, Albert A; Wu, Huijun; Cai, Dianxiong; Wu, Xueping; Gao, Lili; Li, Jing; Wang, Bisheng; Li, Shengping

2015-01-01

Understanding the changes of soil respiration under increasing N fertilizer in cropland ecosystems is crucial to accurately predicting global warming. This study explored seasonal variations of soil respiration and its controlling biochemical properties under a gradient of Nitrogen addition during two consecutive winter wheat growing seasons (2013-2015). N was applied at four different levels: 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) (denoted as N0, N12, N18 and N24, respectively). Soil respiration exhibited significant seasonal variation and was significantly affected by soil temperature with Q10 ranging from 2.04 to 2.46 and from 1.49 to 1.53 during 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winter wheat growing season, respectively. Soil moisture had no significant effect on soil respiration during 2013-2014 winter wheat growing season but showed a significant and negative correlation with soil respiration during 2014-2015 winter wheat growing season. Soil respiration under N24 treatment was significantly higher than N0 treatment. Averaged over the two growing seasons, N12, N18 and N24 significantly increased soil respiration by 13.4, 16.4 and 25.4% compared with N0, respectively. N addition also significantly increased easily extractable glomalin-related soil protein (EEG), soil organic carbon (SOC), total N, ammonium N and nitrate N contents. In addition, soil respiration was significantly and positively correlated with β-glucosidase activity, EEG, SOC, total N, ammonium N and nitrate N contents. The results indicated that high N fertilization improved soil chemical properties, but significantly increased soil respiration.

Simulation of the effects of seasonally varying pumping on intraborehole flow and the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Heywood, Charles E.

2014-01-01

Public-supply wells with long screens in alluvial aquifers can produce waters of differing quality from different depths. Seasonal changes in quality are linked to seasonal changes in pumping rates that influence the distribution of flow into the well screens under pumping conditions and the magnitude and direction of intraborehole flow within the wells under ambient conditions. Groundwater flow and transport simulations with MODFLOW and MT3DMS were developed to quantify the effects of changes in average seasonal pumping rates on intraborehole flow and water quality at two long-screened, public-supply wells, in Albuquerque, New Mexico and Modesto, California, where widespread pumping has altered groundwater flow patterns. Simulation results indicate that both wells produce water requiring additional treatment to maintain potable quality in winter when groundwater withdrawals are reduced because less water is derived from parts of the aquifer that contain water requiring less treatment. Simulation results indicate that the water quality at both wells could be improved by increasing average winter-pumping rates to induce more lateral flow from parts of the aquifer that contain better quality water. Arsenic-bearing water produced by the Albuquerque well could be reduced from 55% to 45% by doubling average winter-pumping rate, while nitrate- and uranium-bearing water produced by the Modesto well could be reduced from 95% to 65% by nearly tripling the average winter-pumping rate. Higher average winter-pumping rates would also reduce the volume of intraborehole flow within both wells and prevent the exchange of poor quality water between shallow and deep parts of both aquifers.

Indoor Thermal Factors and Symptoms in Office Workers: Findings from the U.S. EPA BASE Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendell, Mark; Mirer, Anna

2008-06-01

Some prior research in office buildings has associated higher indoor temperatures even within the recommended thermal comfort range with increased worker symptoms. We reexamined this relationship in data from 95 office buildings in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) Study. We investigated relationships between building-related symptoms and thermal metrics constructed from real-time measurements. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95percent confidence intervals in adjusted logistic regression models with general estimating equations, overall and by season. Winter indoor temperatures spanned the recommended winter comfort range; summer temperatures were mostly colder than the recommended summer range. Increasingmore » indoor temperatures, overall, were associated with increases in few symptoms. Higher winter indoor temperatures, however, were associated with increases in all symptoms analyzed. Higher summer temperatures, above 23oC, were associated with decreases in most symptoms. Humidity ratio, a metric of absolute humidity, showed few clear associations. Thus, increased symptoms with higher temperatures within the thermal comfort range were found only in winter. In summer, buildings were overcooled, and only the higher observed temperatures were within the comfort range; these were associated with decreased symptoms. Confirmation of these findings would suggest that thermal management guidelines consider health effects as well as comfort.« less

Antarctic Sea ice variations and seasonal air temperature relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weatherly, John W.; Walsh, John E.; Zwally, H. J.

1991-01-01

Data through 1987 are used to determine the regional and seasonal dependencies of recent trends of Antarctic temperature and sea ice. Lead-lag relationships involving regional sea ice and air temperature are systematically evaluated, with an eye toward the ice-temperature feedbacks that may influence climatic change. Over the 1958-1087 period the temperature trends are positive in all seasons. For the 15 years (l973-l987) for which ice data are available, the trends are predominantly positive only in winter and summer, and are most strongly positive over the Antarctic Peninsula. The spatially aggregated trend of temperature for this latter period is small but positive, while the corresponding trend of ice coverage is small but negative. Lag correlations between seasonal anomalies of the two variables are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer temperatures and with ice leading the winter temperatures. The implication is that summer temperatures predispose the near-surface waters to above-or below-normal ice coverage in the following fall and winter.

Advancing breeding phenology does not affect incubation schedules in chestnut-crowned babblers: Opposing effects of temperature and wind.

PubMed

Capp, Elliot; Liebl, Andrea L; Cones, Alexandra G; Russell, Andrew F

2018-01-01

Projecting population responses to climate change requires an understanding of climatic impacts on key components of reproduction. Here, we investigate the associations among breeding phenology, climate and incubation schedules in the chestnut-crowned babbler ( Pomatostomus ruficeps ), a 50 g passerine with female-only, intermittent incubation that typically breeds from late winter (July) to early summer (November). During daylight hours, breeding females spent an average of 33 min on the nest incubating (hereafter on-bouts) followed by 24-min foraging (hereafter off-bouts), leading to an average daytime nest attentiveness of 60%. Nest attentiveness was 25% shorter than expected from allometric calculations, largely because off-bout durations were double the expected value for a species with 16 g clutches (4 eggs × 4 g/egg). On-bout durations and daily attentiveness were both negatively related to ambient temperature, presumably because increasing temperatures allowed more time to be allocated to foraging with reduced detriment to egg cooling. By contrast, on-bout durations were positively associated with wind speed, in this case because increasing wind speed exacerbated egg cooling during off-bouts. Despite an average temperature change of 12°C across the breeding season, breeding phenology had no effect on incubation schedules. This surprising result arose because of a positive relationship between temperature and wind speed across the breeding season: Any benefit of increasing temperatures was canceled by apparently detrimental consequences of increasing wind speed on egg cooling. Our results indicate that a greater appreciation for the associations among climatic variables and their independent effects on reproductive investment are necessary to understand the effects of changing climates on breeding phenology.

Effect of nipple drinker water flow rate and season on performance of lactating swine.

PubMed

Leibbrandt, V D; Johnston, L J; Shurson, G C; Crenshaw, J D; Libal, G W; Arthur, R D

2001-11-01

A cooperative study involving six experiment stations and 236 crossbred litters was conducted to determine the effect of nominal nipple drinker water flows of 700 mL/min and 70 mL/min (actual = 701 and 76 mL/min, respectively) during winter (November through February; 124 litters) and summer (June through August; 112 litters) seasons on performance of lactating sows and their litters. Within a season, sows were paired according to expected farrowing date and assigned at random to crates. Water flow rate treatments were assigned at random to sows within pairs. Sows were housed in farrowing crates from d 109 of gestation until either d 21 (two stations) or d 28 of lactation (four stations). Within 24 h after farrowing, litters were adjusted to contain 8 to 12 piglets. Sow feed intake (SFI) and litter weight (LW) were recorded weekly. Sow weights were recorded at d 109 of gestation, d 0, and d 21 of lactation. Sows lactating beyond 21 d were also weighed on d 28. Analysis of covariance was applied to sow weight change, average daily SFI, and LW data where litter size after crossfostering was the covariate. Average ambient temperature 30 cm above the floor at 0830 and 1600 was 24.6 +/- 0.15 degrees C and 29.4 +/- 0.14 degrees C, respectively, during summer and 20.7 +/-0.13 degrees C and 21.8 +/- 0.11 degrees C during winter trials. Restricted drinker water flow rate decreased SFI (P < 0.01; 4.59 vs. 3.94 kg/d, respectively, for 700 and 70 mL/min) and increased BW loss (P < 0.01; 0.56 vs 0.89 kg/d, respectively for 700 and 70 mL/min) but did not affect litter size (P > 0.87) or LW (P > 0.89) during the first 21 d of lactation. During d 22 to 28, the 70 mL/min flow decreased SFI (P < 0.01; 5.02 vs. 4.47 kg/d respectively, for 700 and 70 mL/min). Over the 21-d lactation period, the 70 mL/min treatment depressed (P < 0.01) SFI more during the winter (5.12 vs. 4.24 kg/d for 700 and 70 mL/ min, respectively) than during the summer (4.05 vs 3.65 kg/d for 700 and 70 mL/min, respectively). Season affected SFI (P < 0.01; 4.68 vs. 3.85 kg/d, respectively, for winter and summer), sow weight loss (P < 0.001; 0.46 vs 0.83 kg/d, respectively, for winter and summer), and LW at 21 d (P < 0.05; 52.8 vs. 49.6 kg, respectively, for winter and summer) but not (P > 0.96) the number of pigs per litter. Results of this study suggest that ample access to drinking water and controlling ambient temperature during summer months are essential for sow and litter performance.

Volatility of organic aerosol and its components in the Megacity of Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paciga, A.; Karnezi, E.; Kostenidou, E.; Hildebrandt, L.; Psichoudaki, M.; Engelhart, G. J.; Lee, B.-H.; Crippa, M.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Baltensperger, U.; Pandis, S. N.

2015-08-01

Using a mass transfer model and the volatility basis set, we estimate the volatility distribution for the organic aerosol (OA) components during summer and winter in Paris, France as part of the collaborative project MEGAPOLI. The concentrations of the OA components as a function of temperature were measured combining data from a thermodenuder and an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) with Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis. The hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) had similar volatility distributions for the summer and winter campaigns with half of the material in the saturation concentration bin of 10 μg m-3 and another 35-40 % consisting of low and extremely low volatility organic compounds (LVOCs and ELVOCs, respectively). The winter cooking OA (COA) was more than an order of magnitude less volatile than the summer COA. The low volatility oxygenated OA (LV-OOA) factor detected in the summer had the lowest volatility of all the derived factors and consisted almost exclusively of ELVOCs. The volatility for the semi-volatile oxygenated OA (SV-OOA) was significantly higher than that of the LV-OOA, containing both semi-volatile organic components (SVOCs) and LVOCs. The oxygenated OA (OOA) factor in winter consisted of SVOCs (45 %), LVOCs (25 %) and ELVOCs (30 %). The volatility of marine OA (MOA) was higher than that of the other factors containing around 60 % SVOCs. The biomass burning OA (BBOA) factor contained components with a wide range of volatilities with significant contributions from both SVOCs (50 %) and LVOCs (30 %). Finally, combining the O : C ratio and volatility distributions of the various factors, we incorporated our results into the two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS). Our results show that the factors cover a broad spectrum of volatilities with no direct link between the average volatility and average O : C of the OA components. Agreement between our findings and previous publications is encouraging for our understanding of the evolution of atmospheric OA.

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of NCEP climate forecast system for the prediction of winter temperatures over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-11-01

The surface air temperature during the winter season (December-February) in India adversely affects agriculture as well as day-to-day life. Therefore, the accurate prediction of winter temperature in extended range is of utmost importance. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been providing climatic variables from the fully coupled global climate model, known as Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFSv1) on monthly to seasonal scale since 2004, and it has been upgraded to CFSv2 subsequently in 2011. In the present study, the performance of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in simulating the winter 2 m maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures ( T max, T min, and T mean, respectively) over India is evaluated with respect to India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° observations. The hindcast data obtained from both versions of CFS from 1982 to 2009 (27 years) with November initial conditions (lead-1) are used. The analyses of winter ( T max, T min, and T mean) temperatures revealed that CFSv1 and CFSv2 are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation with a slight negative bias. Of the two, CFSv2 is appreciable in capturing increasing trends of winter temperatures like observed. The T max, T min, and T mean correlations from CFSv2 is significantly high (0.35, 0.53, and 0.51, respectively), while CFSv1 correlations are less (0.29, 0.15, and 0.12) and insignificant. This performance of CFSv2 may be due to the better estimation of surface heat budget terms and realistic CO2 concentration, which were absent in CFSv1. CFSv2 proved to have a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (below, near, and above normal) for winter T min, which are required for crop yield and public utility services, over north India.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLong, Kristine L.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Shen, CC

2014-01-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42′N, 82°48′W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual (~2.0°C) and multidecadal variability (~1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades (~1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734–2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

PubMed

Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

2014-02-15

Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, P<0.05). The embryonic period was shortened by increasing temperature in both pH treatments (P<0.05). Embryo growth rates increased significantly with temperature under present-day scenarios, but there was a significant trend reversal under future summer warming conditions (P<0.05). Besides pronounced premature hatching, a higher percentage of abnormalities was found in summer embryos exposed to future warming and lower pH (P<0.05). Under the hypercapnic scenario, oxygen consumption rates decreased significantly in late embryos and newly hatched paralarvae, especially in the summer period (P<0.05). Concomitantly, there was a significant enhancement of the heat shock response (HSP70/HSC70) with warming in both pH treatments and developmental stages. Upper thermal tolerance limits were positively influenced by acclimation temperature, and such thresholds were significantly higher in late embryos than in hatchlings under present-day conditions (P<0.05). In contrast, the upper thermal tolerance limits under hypercapnia were higher in hatchlings than in embryos. Thus, we show that the stressful abiotic conditions inside the embryo's capsules will be exacerbated under near-future ocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

Seasonal variation in body mass, body temperature and thermogenesis in the Hwamei, Garrulax canorus.

PubMed

Wu, Mei-Xiu; Zhou, Li-Meng; Zhao, Li-Dan; Zhao, Zhi-Jun; Zheng, Wei-Hong; Liu, Jin-Song

2015-01-01

The basal thermogenesis of birds is beginning to be viewed as a highly flexible physiological trait influenced by environmental fluctuations, particularly changes in ambient temperature (Ta). Many birds living in regions with seasonal fluctuations in Ta typically respond to cold by increasing their insulation and adjusting their metabolic rate. To understand these metabolic adaptations, body temperature (Tb), metabolic rate (MR), thermal neutral zone (TNZ) and thermal conductance were measured within a range of temperatures from 5 to 40°C in free-living Hwamei, Garrulax canorus, in both winter and summer. Body mass was 61.2±0.3g in winter and 55.5±1.0g in summer, and mean Tb was 41.6±0.1°C in winter and 42.3±0.1°C in summer. TNZ was between 28.3 and 35.1°C in winter and between 28.7 and 33.2°C in summer. The mean basal metabolic rate (BMR) within TNZ was 203.32±11.81ml O2 h(-1) in winter and 168.99±6.45ml O2 h(-1) in summer. Minimum thermal conductance was 3.73±0.09joulesg(-1)h(-1)°C(-1) in winter and 3.26±0.06joulesg(-1)h(-1)°C(-1) in summer. Birds caught in winter had higher body mass, MR, and more variable TNZ than those in summer. The increased winter BMR indicates improved ability to cope with cold and maintenance of a high Tb. These results show that the Hwamei's metabolism is not constant, but exhibits pronounced seasonal phenotypic flexibility associated with maintenance of a high Tb. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deficit irrigation strategies and wine grape cold hardiness

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter survival of winegrapes grown at northern latitudes depends upon the ability of dormant tissue to withstand low temperature exposure and acclimate to winter temperature fluctuations. Deficit irrigation is used extensively in arid wine grape production regions to manage growth for improved grap...

Record low lake ice thickness and bedfast ice extent on Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain in 2017 exemplify the value of monitoring freshwater ice to understand sea-ice forcing and predict permafrost dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arp, C. D.; Alexeev, V. A.; Bondurant, A. C.; Creighton, A.; Engram, M. J.; Jones, B. M.; Parsekian, A.

2017-12-01

The winter of 2016/2017 was exceptionally warm and snowy along the coast of Arctic Alaska partly due to low fall sea ice extent. Based on several decades of field measurements, we documented a new record low maximum ice thickness (MIT) for lakes on the Barrow Peninsula, averaging 1.2 m. This is in comparison to a long-term average MIT of 1.7 m stretching back to 1962 with a maximum of 2.1 m in 1970 and previous minimum of 1.3 m in 2014. The relevance of thinner lake ice in arctic coastal lowlands, where thermokarst lakes cover greater than 20% of the land area, is that permafrost below lakes with bedfast ice is typically preserved. Lakes deeper than the MIT warm and thaw sub-lake permafrost forming taliks. Remote sensing analysis using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is a valuable tool for scaling the field observations of MIT to the entire freshwater landscape to map bedfast ice. A new, long-term time-series of late winter multi-platform SAR from 1992 to 2016 shows a large dynamic range of bedfast ice extent, 29% of lake area or 6% of the total land area over this period, and adding 2017 to this record is expected to extend this range further. Empirical models of lake mean annual bed temperature suggest that permafrost begins to thaw at depths less than 60% of MIT. Based on this information and knowledge of average lake ice growth trajectories, we suggest that future SAR analysis of lake ice should focus on mid-winter (January) to evaluate the extent of bedfast ice and corresponding zones of sub-lake permafrost thaw. Tracking changes in these areas from year to year in mid-winter may provide the best landscape-scale evaluation of changing permafrost conditions in lake-rich arctic lowlands. Because observed changes in MIT coupled with mid-winter bedfast ice extent provide much information on permafrost stability, we suggest that these measurements can serve as Essential Climate Variables (EVCs) to indicate past and future changes in lake-rich arctic regions. The strong linkage between declining sea ice and terrestrial freshwater ice thickness, lake ice regimes, and sub-lake permafrost stability suggest more rapid degradation of landscape-wide permafrost than some observations and models might suggest, warranting a targeted program to indicate such arctic land-sea linkages.

Effects of sawdust bedding dry matter on lying behavior of dairy cows: a dose-dependent response.

PubMed

Reich, L J; Weary, D M; Veira, D M; von Keyserlingk, M A G

2010-04-01

The objective was to determine the effect of sawdust bedding dry matter on the lying behavior of Holstein cows. Dry matter (DM) was varied systematically over 5 treatment levels to test how cows respond to damp bedding. This experiment was repeated during summer and winter to test if the effects of damp bedding varied with season. The 5 bedding treatments averaged (+/-SD) 89.8+/-3.7, 74.2+/-6.4, 62.2+/-6.3, 43.9+/-4.0, and 34.7+/-3.8% DM. Over the course of the trial, minimum and maximum temperatures in the barn were 2.6+/-2.0 and 6.8+/-2.2 degrees C in the winter and 13.3+/-2.5 and 22.6+/-4.1 degrees C in the summer. In both seasons, 5 groups of 3 nonlactating cows were housed in free stalls bedded with sawdust. Following a 5-d acclimation period on dry bedding, groups were exposed to the 5 bedding treatments in a 5 x 5 Latin square. Each treatment lasted 4 d, followed by 1 d when the cows were provided with dry bedding. Stall usage was assessed by 24-h video scanned at 5-min intervals. Responses were analyzed within group (n=5) as the observational unit. Bedding DM affected lying time, averaging 10.4+/-0.4 h/d on the wettest treatment and increasing to 11.5+/-0.4 h/d on the driest bedding. Lying time varied with season, averaging 12.1+/-0.4 h/d across treatments during the winter and 9.9+/-0.6 h/d during the summer, but season and bedding DM did not interact. These results indicate that access to dry bedding is important for dairy cows. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of a scenario-neutral approach to identify the key hydro-meteorological attributes that impact runoff from a natural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

2017-11-01

Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for assessing the potential impact of climate change on water resource systems, as these approaches allow the performance of these systems to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. However, practical implementations of these approaches are still scarce, with a key limitation being the difficulty of generating a range of plausible future time series of hydro-meteorological data. In this study we apply a recently developed inverse stochastic generation approach to support the scenario-neutral analysis, and thus identify the key hydro-meteorological variables to which the system is most sensitive. The stochastic generator simulates synthetic hydro-meteorological time series that represent plausible future changes in (1) the average, extremes and seasonal patterns of rainfall; and (2) the average values of temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (uz) as variables that drive PET. These hydro-meteorological time series are then fed through a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate the potential changes in runoff as a function of changes in the hydro-meteorological variables, and runoff sensitivity is assessed with both correlation and Sobol' sensitivity analyses. The method was applied to a case study catchment in South Australia, and the results showed that the most important hydro-meteorological attributes for runoff were winter rainfall followed by the annual average rainfall, while the PET-related meteorological variables had comparatively little impact. The high importance of winter rainfall can be related to the winter-dominated nature of both the rainfall and runoff regimes in this catchment. The approach illustrated in this study can greatly enhance our understanding of the key hydro-meteorological attributes and processes that are likely to drive catchment runoff under a changing climate, thus enabling the design of tailored climate impact assessments to specific water resource systems.

Comparison of the Impact of the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection on Interannual Variation in East Asian Winter Temperatures and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection on the East Asian winter climate anomalies are compared for the past 34 winters focusing on 1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, 2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and 3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and EA/WR over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. The EA/WR impact is found to be comparable to the AO impact in affecting the East Asian temperature and monsoon. For example, warm (cold) months over mid-latitude East Asia during the positive (negative) AO are clearly seen when the AO and EA/WR are in the same phase. Near zero correlation is found between temperature and the AO phase when both teleconnections are in an opposite phase. The well-known negative relationship between SH and the AO phase is observed significantly more often when the AO is in the same phase with the EA/WR. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH are found to be more highly negative-correlated with the EA/WR rather than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EA/WR, influencing the East Asian winter climates. These results suggest that the impact of EA/WR should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küttel, Marcel; Luterbacher, Jürg; Wanner, Heinz

2011-03-01

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.

Winter home-range characteristics of American Marten (Martes americana) in Northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Joseph B. Dumyahn; Patrick A. Zollner

2007-01-01

We estimated home-range size for American marten (Martes americana) in northern Wisconsin during the winter months of 2001-2004, and compared the proportion of cover-type selection categories (highly used, neutral and avoided) among home-ranges (95% fixed-kernel), core areas (50% fixed-kernel) and the study area. Average winter homerange size was 3....

Seasonal Snow Extent and Snow Mass in South America Using SMMR and SSM/I Passive Microwave Data (1979-2003)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J. L.; Hall, D. K.; Chiu, L.; Kelly, R. E.; Powell, H.; Chiu, L.

2007-01-01

Seasonal snow cover in South America was examined in this study using passive microwave satellite data from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-satellite and the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/I) on board Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. For the period from 1979-2003, both snow cover extent and snow depth (snow mass) were investigated during coldest months (May-September), primarily in the Patagonia area of Argentina and in Chile. Most of the seasonal snow in South America is in the Patagonia region of Argentina. Since winter temperatures in this region are often above freezing, the coldest winter month was found to be the month having the most extensive snow cover and also usually the month having the deepest snow cover as well. Sharp year-to-year differences were recorded using the passive microwave observations. The average snow cover extent for July, the month with the greatest average snow extent during the 25-year period of record, is 320,700 km(exp 2). In July of 1984, the average monthly snow cover was 701,250 km(exp 2) - the most extensive coverage observed between 1979 and 2003. However, in July of 1989, snow cover extent was only 120 km(exp 2). The 25-year period of record shows a sinusoidal like pattern, though there appears to be no obvious trend in either increasing or decreasing snow extent or snow mass between 1979 and 2003.

Seasonal Snow Extent and Snow Mass in South America using SMMR and SSM/I Passive Microwave Data (1979-2006)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J. L.; Hall, D. K.; Kelly, R. E. J.; Chiu, L.

2008-01-01

Seasonal snow cover in South America was examined in this study using passive microwave satellite data from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7 satellite and the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/I) onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. For the period from 1979-2006, both snow cover extent and snow water equivalent (snow mass) were investigated during the coldest months (May-September), primarily in the Patagonia area of Argentina and in the Andes of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, where most of the seasonal snow is found. Since winter temperatures in this region are often above freezing, the coldest winter month was found to be the month having the most extensive snow cover and usually the month having the deepest snow cover as well. Sharp year-to-year differences were recorded using the passive microwave observations. The average snow cover extent for July, the month with the greatest average extent during the 28-year period of record, is 321,674 km(exp 2). In July of 1984, the average monthly snow cover extent was 701,250 km(exp 2) the most extensive coverage observed between 1979 and 2006. However, in July of 1989, snow cover extent was only 120,000 km(exp 2). The 28-year period of record shows a sinusoidal like pattern for both snow cover and snow mass, though neither trend is significant at the 95% level.

Winter Refuge for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus Mosquitoes in Hanoi during Winter

PubMed Central

Tsunoda, Takashi; Cuong, Tran Chi; Dong, Tran Duc; Yen, Nguyen Thi; Le, Nguyen Hoang; Phong, Tran Vu; Minakawa, Noboru

2014-01-01

Dengue occurs throughout the year in Hanoi, Vietnam, despite winter low temperatures <10°C. During July 2010 to March 2012, we surveyed monthly for Aedes larvae and pupae in 120 houses in 8 Hanoi districts. Aedes albopictus preferred discarded containers in summer and pupal density drastically decreased in winter. Aedes aegypti preferred concrete tanks and this preference increased in winter. Even in winter, the lowest water temperature found in concrete tanks was >14°C, exceeding the developmental zero point of Ae. aegypti. Although jars, drums and concrete tanks were the dominant containers previously (1994–97) in Hanoi, currently the percentage of residences with concrete tanks was still high while jars and drums were quite low. Our study showed that concrete tanks with broken lids allowing mosquitoes access were important winter refuge for Ae. aegypti. We also indicate a concern about concrete tanks serving as foci for Ae. aegypti to expand their distribution in cooler regions. PMID:24752230

Improved VAS regression soundings of mesoscale temperature features observed during the atmospheric variability experiment on 6 March 1982. [VISSR Atmospheric Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chesters, Dennis; Keyser, Dennis A.; Larko, David E.; Uccellini, Louis W.

1988-01-01

In 1982, the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) on the GOES satellite performed the Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE) to verify VAS's mesoscale-sounding capabilities. Attention is given to the AVE network in the late afternoon of March 6, 1982, after a winter storm had passed over Texas, in order to ascertain whether such temperature profile deviations from the average lapse rate as a midlevel cold pool (which should decrease the brightness of several IR channels) can be retrieved from VAS radiances. Two simple enhancements are introduced: the regression matrix is calculated using the AVE asynoptic radiosondes launched from NWS sites in the region, and a change of the statistical conditioning factor from the conservative 10/1 SNR to a more optimistic 100/1 for those VAS channels that are more sensitive to tropospheric temperature.

Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-01-01

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.

1977-01-01

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

A 500-year seasonally resolved δ18O and δ13C, layer thickness and calcite aspect record from a speleothem deposited in the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Allan, M.; Quinif, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, L. R.; Keppens, E.; Claeys, P.

2015-06-01

Speleothem δ18O and δ13C signals enable climate reconstructions at high resolution. However, scarce decadal and seasonally resolved speleothem records are often difficult to interpret in terms of climate due to the multitude of factors that affect the proxy signals. In this paper, a fast-growing (up to 2 mm yr-1) seasonally laminated speleothem from the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Belgium) is analyzed for its δ18O and δ13C values, layer thickness and changes in calcite aspect. The studied record covers the period between AD 2001 and 1479 as indicated by layer counting and confirmed by 20 U / Th ages. The Proserpine proxies are seasonally biased and document drier (and colder) winters on multidecadal scales. Higher δ13C signals reflect increased prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and lower soil activity during drier (and colder) winters. Thinner layers and darker calcite relate to slower growth and exist during drier (and colder) winter periods. Exceptionally dry (and cold) winter periods occur from 1565 to 1610, at 1730, from 1770 to 1800, from 1810 to 1860, and from 1880 to 1895 and correspond to exceptionally cold periods in historical and instrumental records as well as European winter temperature reconstructions. More relative climate variations, during which the four measured proxies vary independently and display lower amplitude variations, occur between 1479 and 1565, between 1610 and 1730, and between 1730 and 1770. The winters during the first and last periods are interpreted as relatively wetter (and warmer) and correspond to warmer periods in historical data and in winter temperature reconstructions in Europe. The winters in the period between 1610 and 1730 are interpreted as relatively drier (and cooler) and correspond to generally colder conditions in Europe. Interpretation of the seasonal variations in δ18O and δ13C signals differs from that on a decadal and multidecadal scale. Seasonal δ18O variations reflect cave air temperature variations and suggest a 2.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature during the two relatively wetter (and warmer) winter periods (1479-1565 and 1730-1770), which corresponds to the cave air temperature seasonality observed today. Between 1610 and 1730, the δ18O values suggest a 1.5 °C seasonality in cave air temperature, indicating colder summer temperatures during this drier (and cooler) interval. The δ13C seasonality is driven by PCP and suggests generally lower PCP seasonal effects between 1479 and 1810 compared to today. A short interval of increased PCP seasonality occurs between 1600 and 1660, and reflects increased PCP in summer due to decreased winter recharge.

Winter cold-tolerance thresholds in field-grown Miscanthus hybrid rhizomes

PubMed Central

Peixoto, Murilo de Melo; Friesen, Patrick Calvin; Sage, Rowan F.

2015-01-01

The cold tolerance of winter-dormant rhizomes was evaluated in diploid, allotriploid, and allotetraploid hybrids of Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus sacchariflorus grown in a field setting. Two artificial freezing protocols were tested: one lowered the temperature continuously by 1°C h–1 to the treatment temperature and another lowered the temperature in stages of 24h each to the treatment temperature. Electrolyte leakage and rhizome sprouting assays after the cold treatment assessed plant and tissue viability. Results from the continuous-cooling trial showed that Miscanthus rhizomes from all genotypes tolerated temperatures as low as –6.5 °C; however, the slower, staged-cooling procedure enabled rhizomes from two diploid lines to survive temperatures as low as –14 °C. Allopolyploid genotypes showed no change in the lethal temperature threshold between the continuous and staged-cooling procedure, indicating that they have little ability to acclimate to subzero temperatures. The results demonstrated that rhizomes from diploid Miscanthus lines have superior cold tolerance that could be exploited to improve performance in more productive polyploid lines. With expected levels of soil insulation, low winter air temperatures should not harm rhizomes of tolerant diploid genotypes of Miscanthus in temperate to sub-boreal climates (up to 60°N); however, the observed winter cold in sub-boreal climates could harm rhizomes of existing polyploid varieties of Miscanthus and thus reduce stand performance. PMID:25788733

The range of medication storage temperatures in aeromedical emergency medical services.

PubMed

Madden, J F; O'Connor, R E; Evans, J

1999-01-01

The United States Pharmacopoeia (USP) recommends that medication storage temperatures should be maintained between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C (59 degrees F to 86 degrees F). Concerns have been raised that storage temperatures in EMS may deviate from this optimal range, predisposing drugs to degradation. This study was conducted to determine whether temperatures inside the drug box carried by paramedics aboard a helicopter remained within the range. The Aviation Section, with a paramedic on board, utilizes two helicopters and conducts approximately 80 patient care flights per month. A dual-display indoor/outdoor thermometer with memory was used to measure the highest and lowest temperatures during each shift. The thermometer was kept with medications in a nylon drug bag, which remained on the helicopter except when needed for patient care. Ambient temperature measurements at the location of the helicopter base were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Temperature ranges were recorded during day shift (8 AM to 4 PM) and night shift (4 PM to 12 AM) during the winter from December 1, 1995, to March 13, 1996, and summer from June 17, 1996, to September 14, 1996. Statistical analysis was performed using chi-square and the Bonferroni-adjusted t-test. Compared with the winter day period, the winter night period had lower minimum (13.2 degrees C vs 14.7 degrees C, p = 0.003) and maximum (20.3 degrees C vs 21.2 degrees C, p = 0.02) temperatures. Both were below the USP minimum. The summer day period had higher maximum temperatures than the summer night period (31.2 degrees C vs 27.6 degrees C, p = 5 x 10(-9)). The mean daytime summer maximum exceeded the USP upper limit. Storage temperatures outside of the USP range were observed during 49% of winter days, 62% of winter nights, 56% of summer days, and 27% of summer nights. There was a significant tendency for summer days (p = 8 x 10(-8)) and winter nights (p = 0.009) to be outside of the acceptable range. There was moderate correlation between ambient and drug box temperatures (r2 = 0.49). Medications stored aboard an EMS helicopter are exposed to extremes of temperature, even inside a drug bag. Measures are needed to attenuate storage temperature fluctuations aboard aeromedical helicopters.

Mass balance, meteorological, ice motion, surface altitude, runoff, and ice thickness data at Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, 1995 balance year

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.

2000-01-01

The 1995 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data obtained in the basin. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.94 meter on April 19, 1995, 0.6 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 0.94 meter, was reached on April 25, 1995; the net balance (from September 18, 1994 to August 29, 1995) was -0.70 meter, 0.76 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1994, to September 30, 1995) was -0.86 meter. Ice-surface motion and altitude changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice speed and glacier-thickness changes. Annual stream runoff was 2.05 meters averaged over the basin, approximately equal to the long-term average. The 1976 ice-thickness data are reported from a single site near the highest measurement site (180 meters thick) and from two glacier cross profiles near the mid-glacier (270 meters thick on centerline) and low glacier (150 meters thick on centerline) measurement sites. A new area-altitude distribution determined from 1993 photogrammetry is reported. Area-averaged balances are reported from both the 1967 and 1993 area-altitude distribution so the reader may directly see the effect of the update. Briefly, loss of ablation area between 1967 and 1993 results in a larger weighting being applied to data from the upper glacier site and hence, increases calculated area-averaged balances. The balance increase is of the order of 15 percent for net balance.

A closer look at the relationships between meridional mass circulation pulses in the stratosphere and cold air outbreak patterns in northern hemispheric winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai; Rao, Jian

2018-01-01

The relationship between continental-scale cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the mid-latitudes and pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) is investigated using ERA-Interim data for the 32 winters from 1979 to 2011. Pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation include "PULSE_TOT", "PULSE_W1", and "PULSE_W2" events, defined as a period of stronger meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by total flow, wavenumber-1, and wavenumber-2, respectively. Each type of PULSE event occurs on average 4-6 times per winter. A robust relationship is found between two dominant patterns of winter CAOs and PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. Cold temperature anomalies tend to occur over Eurasia with the other continent anomalously warm during the 2 weeks before the peak dates of PULSE_W1 events, while the opposite temperature anomaly pattern can be found after the peak dates; and during the 1-2 weeks centered on the peak dates of PULSE_W2 events, a higher probability of occurrence of CAOs is found over both continents. These relationships become more robust for PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events of larger peak intensity. PULSE_TOT events are classified into five types, which have a distinct coupling relationship with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The specific pattern of CAOs associated with each type of PULSE_TOT event is found to be a combination of the CAO patterns associated with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The percentage of PULSE_TOT events belonging to the types that are dominated by PULSE_W2 events increases with the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events. Accordingly, the related CAO pattern is close to that associated with PULSE_W1 for PULSE_TOT events with small-to-medium intensity, but tends to resemble that associated with PULSE_W2 events as the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events increases.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

PubMed

Inouye, D W; Barr, B; Armitage, K B; Inouye, B D

2000-02-15

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species

PubMed Central

Inouye, David W.; Barr, Billy; Armitage, Kenneth B.; Inouye, Brian D.

2000-01-01

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species. PMID:10677510

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Covey, C.; Ghan, S. J.; Weissman, Paul R.

1988-01-01

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.

Occurrence and air-soil exchange of organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls at a CAWNET background site in central China: Implications for influencing factors and fate.

PubMed

Zhan, Lingxi; Lin, Tian; Wang, Zuwu; Cheng, Zhineng; Zhang, Gan; Lyu, Xiaopu; Cheng, Hairong

2017-11-01

Ambient air and soil samples were collected between March 2012 and March 2013 at Jinsha, a regional background site in central China, to measure the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The average concentrations of total OCPs and total PCBs were 191 ± 107 and 39.4 ± 27.1 pg/m 3 in air (gaseous and particulate phase) and 0.585 ± 0.437 and 0.083 ± 0.039 ng/g in soil, respectively. The higher concentrations of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (p,p'-DDT) and p,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDE ratios in the soil indicated recent p,p'-DDT input to the soil. A strong positive temperature dependence and average fugacity fraction value > 0.5 were observed for p,p'-DDT, suggesting that volatilization of residual DDT in the soil was the main influencing factor on atmospheric p,p'-DDT. Highly average fugacity fractions (>0.7) of trans-chlordane (TC) and cis-chlordane (CC) and high TC/CC ratios both in the soil and atmosphere suggested fresh inputs. Higher gaseous concentrations of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were observed in winter and negative temperature dependence was directly attributed to the surrounding ongoing source (e.g. fuel consuming activities), especially in winter. Overall, most targeted OCPs and PCBs were influenced by long-range transport, and fugacity fraction values indicated highly volatile compounds (e.g. α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) and lower chlorinated PCBs) were volatilized and low volatility compounds (e.g. p,p'-DDE and higher chlorinated PCBs) were deposited at the air-soil interface. Knowing the source and sink of OCPs and PCBs can help to control their pollution in this area and provide a reference for other studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of aerial transects for counting winter mallards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reinecke, K.J.; Brown, M.W.; Nassar, J.R.

1992-01-01

Winter waterfowl surveys rarely use sampling methods, and little is known about the precision and biases of their population estimates. Consequently, we developed aerial transect surveys (n=5) in 4 strata comprising 16 substrata in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley during winters 1987-88 through 1989-90 to estimate mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population indices and determine regional patterns of habitat use. Mallard population indices ranged from 1,147,628 (SE=192,341) in December 1988 to 1,790,708 (SE=179,406) in January 1988. Coefficients of variation (CV's) for early winter surveys averaged 0.15 and those for late winter surveys averaged 0.10. During early winter, 59-69% of mallards were on wetlands with water regimes managed for waterfowl; whereas in late winter, 52-79% used wetlands with unmanaged water regimes. Late winter was wet during 1987-88 and 1988-89, and most mallards (62-68%) were on naturally flooded croplands. Use of forested wetlands (3-11%) and moist-soil habitats (3-29%) varied among surveys but was not correlated with water conditions. The number of mallards using naturally flooded croplands (e.g., >1,100,000 in Jan 1988) illustrated the extent of habitat use on private lands. We recommend transect surveys (e.g., 5-yr intervals) for evaluating responses of mallard populations to management programs and as a sampling framework for integrating regional waterfowl research and management data.

Record-breaking ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2010/2011: comparison with 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Nikulin, G.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2012-03-01

We present a detailed discussion of the chemical and dynamical processes in the Arctic winters 1996/1997 and 2010/2011 with high resolution chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and space-based observations. In the Arctic winter 2010/2011, the lower stratospheric minimum temperatures were below 195 K for a record period, from December to mid-April, and a strong and stable vortex was present during that period. Analyses with the Mimosa-Chim CTM simulations show that the chemical ozone loss started by early January and progressed slowly to 1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) by late February. The loss intensified by early March and reached a record maximum of ~2.4 ppmv in the late March-early April period over a broad altitude range of 450-550 K. This coincides with elevated ozone loss rates of 2-4 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume/sunlit hour) and a contribution of about 40% from the ClO-ClO cycle and about 35-40% from the ClO-BrO cycle in late February and March, and about 30-50% from the HOx cycle in April. We also estimate a loss of around 0.7-1.2 ppmv contributed (75%) by the NOx cycle at 550-700 K. The ozone loss estimated in the partial column range of 350-550 K also exhibits a record value of ~148 DU (Dobson Unit). This is the largest ozone loss ever estimated in the Arctic and is consistent with the remarkable chlorine activation and strong denitrification (40-50%) during the winter, as the modeled ClO shows ~1.8 ppbv in early January and ~1 ppbv in March at 450-550 K. These model results are in excellent agreement with those found from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Our analyses also show that the ozone loss in 2010/2011 is close to that found in some Antarctic winters, for the first time in the observed history. Though the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March-April, the temperatures were higher in December-February, and, therefore, chlorine activation was moderate and ozone loss was average with about 1.2 ppmv at 475-550 K or 42 DU at 350-550 K, as diagnosed from the model simulations and measurements.

Record-breaking ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2010/2011: comparison with 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Nikulin, G.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2012-08-01

We present a detailed discussion of the chemical and dynamical processes in the Arctic winters 1996/1997 and 2010/2011 with high resolution chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and space-based observations. In the Arctic winter 2010/2011, the lower stratospheric minimum temperatures were below 195 K for a record period of time, from December to mid-April, and a strong and stable vortex was present during that period. Simulations with the Mimosa-Chim CTM show that the chemical ozone loss started in early January and progressed slowly to 1 ppmv (parts per million by volume) by late February. The loss intensified by early March and reached a record maximum of ~2.4 ppmv in the late March-early April period over a broad altitude range of 450-550 K. This coincides with elevated ozone loss rates of 2-4 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume/sunlit hour) and a contribution of about 30-55% and 30-35% from the ClO-ClO and ClO-BrO cycles, respectively, in late February and March. In addition, a contribution of 30-50% from the HOx cycle is also estimated in April. We also estimate a loss of about 0.7-1.2 ppmv contributed (75%) by the NOx cycle at 550-700 K. The ozone loss estimated in the partial column range of 350-550 K exhibits a record value of ~148 DU (Dobson Unit). This is the largest ozone loss ever estimated in the Arctic and is consistent with the remarkable chlorine activation and strong denitrification (40-50%) during the winter, as the modeled ClO shows ~1.8 ppbv in early January and ~1 ppbv in March at 450-550 K. These model results are in excellent agreement with those found from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Our analyses also show that the ozone loss in 2010/2011 is close to that found in some Antarctic winters, for the first time in the observed history. Though the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March-April, the temperatures were higher in December-February, and, therefore, chlorine activation was moderate and ozone loss was average with about 1.2 ppmv at 475-550 K or 42 DU at 350-550 K, as diagnosed from the model simulations and measurements.

Insights on the Feasibility, Modeling and Field Testing of Cirrus Cloud Thinning from Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D. L.; Garnier, A.; Mejia, J.; Avery, M. A.; Erfani, E.

2016-12-01

To date, it is not clear whether the climate intervention method known as cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) can be viable since it requires cirrus clouds to form through homogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth hom) and some recent GCM studies predict cirrus are formed primarily through heterogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth het). A new CALIPSO infrared retrieval method has been developed for single-layer cirrus cloud that measures the temperature dependence of their layer-averaged number concentration N, effective diameter De and ice water content for optical depths (OD) between 0.3 and 3.0. Based on N, the prevailing ice nucleation mechanism (hom or het) can be estimated as a function of temperature, season, latitude and surface type. These satellite results indicate that seeding cirrus clouds at high latitudes during winter may produce significant global surface cooling. This is because hom often appears to dominate over land during winter north of 30°N latitude while the same appears true for most of the Southern Hemisphere (south of 30°S) during all seasons. Moreover, the sampled cirrus cloud frequency of occurrence in the Arctic is at least twice as large during winter relative to other seasons, while frequency of occurrence in the Antarctic peaks in the spring and is second-highest during winter. During Arctic winter, a combination of frequent hom cirrus, maximum cirrus coverage and an extreme or absent sun angle produces the maximum seasonal cirrus net radiative forcing (warming). Thus a reduction in OD and coverage (via CCT) for these cirrus clouds could yield a significant net cooling effect. From these CALIPSO retrievals, De-T relationships are generated as a function of season, latitude and surface type (land vs. ocean). These will be used in CAM5 to estimate De and the ice fall speed, from which the cirrus radiative forcing will be estimated during winter north of 30°latitude, where hom cirrus are common. Another CAM5 simulation will replace the hom cirrus De-T relationships with those corresponding to het cirrus (at similar latitudes). In this way the potential cooling from CCT in the Northern Hemisphere will be estimated. If a field campaign was ever conducted for testing the efficacy of CCT, this CALIPSO retrieval could be used to help determine whether the seeded hom cirrus were transformed into het cirrus.

UARS MLS observations of lower stratospheric ClO in the 1992-93 and 1993-94 Arctic winter vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, J. W.; Manney, G. L.; Read, W. G.; Froidevaux, L.; Flower, D. A.; Jarnot, R. F.

1995-01-01

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of lower stratospheric ClO during 1992-93 and 1993-94 Arctic winters are presented. Enhanced ClO in the 1992-93 winter was first observed in early December, and extensively during February when temperatures were continually low enough for polar stratospheric cloud (PSCs). Sporadic episodes of enhanced ClO were observed for most of the 1993-94 winter as minimum temperatures hovered near the PSC threshold, with largest ClO amounts occurring in early March after a sudden deep cooling in late February.

Developmental plasticity of mating calls enables acoustic communication in diverse environments

PubMed Central

Beckers, Oliver M; Schul, Johannes

2008-01-01

Male calls of the katydid Neoconocephalus triops exhibit substantial developmental plasticity in two parameters: (i) calls of winter males are continuous and lack the verse structure of summer calls and (ii) at equal temperatures, summer males produce calls with a substantially higher pulse rate than winter males. We raised female N. triops under conditions that reliably induced either summer or winter phenotype and tested their preferences for the call parameters that differ between summer and winter males. Neither generation was selective for the presence of verses, but females had strong preferences for pulse rates: only a narrow range of pulse rates was attractive. The attractive ranges did not differ between summer and winter females. Both male pulse rate and female preference for pulse rate changed with ambient temperature, but female preference changed more than the male calls. As a result, the summer call was attractive only at 25°C, whereas the slower winter call was attractive only at 20°C. Thus, developmental plasticity of male calls compensates for differences in temperature dependency between calls and preferences and enables the communication system to function in heterogeneous environments. The potential role of call plasticity during the invasion of new habitats is discussed. PMID:18302998

Effect of the environmental stimuli upon the human body in winter outdoor thermal environment.

PubMed

Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kondo, Emi; Ishii, Jin; Sakoi, Tomonori; Fukagawa, Kenta; Bolashikov, Zhecho Dimitrov; Tsuchikawa, Tadahiro; Matsubara, Naoki; Horikoshi, Tetsumi

2013-01-01

In order to manage the outdoor thermal environment with regard to human health and the environmental impact of waste heat, quantitative evaluations are indispensable. It is necessary to use a thermal environment evaluation index. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and winter outdoor thermal environment variables. Subjective experiments were conducted in the winter outdoor environment. Environmental factors and human psychological responses were measured. The relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and the outdoor thermal environment index ETFe (enhanced conduction-corrected modified effective temperature) in winter was shown. The variables which influence the thermal sensation vote of the human body are air temperature, long-wave thermal radiation and short-wave solar radiation. The variables that influence the thermal comfort vote of the human body are air temperature, humidity, short-wave solar radiation, long-wave thermal radiation, and heat conduction. Short-wave solar radiation, and heat conduction are among the winter outdoor thermal environment variables that affect psychological responses to heat. The use of thermal environment evaluation indices that comprise short-wave solar radiation and heat conduction in winter outdoor spaces is a valid approach.

Interhemispheric comparison of atmospheric circulation features as evaluated from Nimbus satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reiter, E. R.; Vonderhaar, T. H.; Adler, R. F.; Srivatsangam, S.; Fields, A.

1973-01-01

A relationship is established between relative geostrophic vorticity on an isobaric surface and the Laplacian of the underlying layer-mean temperature. This relationship is used to investigate the distribution of vorticity and baroclinicity in a jet-stream model which is constantly recurrent in the winter troposphere. The investigation shows that the baroclinic and vorticity fields of the extratropical troposphere must be bifurcated with two extrema in the middle and subpolar latitudes. This pattern is present in daily tropospheric meridional cross-sections. The reasons for the disappearance of bifurcation in the time-and-longitude averaged distributions are discussed.

Carbonate system variability in the Gulf of Trieste (North Adriatic Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantoni, Carolina; Luchetta, Anna; Celio, Massimo; Cozzi, Stefano; Raicich, Fabio; Catalano, Giulio

2012-12-01

The seasonal variability of the carbonate system in the waters of the Gulf of Trieste (GoT) was studied at PALOMA station from 2008 to 2009, in order to highlight the effects of biological processes, meteorological forcings and river loads on the dynamics of pHT, CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), carbonate ion concentration (CO3=), aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) and total alkalinity (AT). During winter, low seawater temperature (9.0 ± 0.4 °C) and a weak biological activity (-10.7 < AOU < 15.7 μmol O2 kg-1) in a homogeneous water column led to the lowest average values of pCO2 (328 ± 19 μatm) and ΩAr (2.91 ± 0.14). In summer, the water column in the area acted as a two-layer system, with production processes prevailing in the upper layer (average AOU = -29.3 μmol O2 kg-1) and respiration processes in the lower layer (average AOU = 26.8 μmol O2 kg-1). These conditions caused the decrease of DIC (50 μmol kg-1) and the increase of ΩAr (1.0) values in the upper layer, whereas opposite trends were observed in the bottom waters. In August 2008, during a hypoxic event (dissolved oxygen DO = 86.9 μmol O2 kg-1), the intense remineralisation of organic carbon caused the rise of pCO2 (1043 μatm) and the decreases of pHT and ΩAr values down to 7.732 and 1.79 respectively. On an annual basis, surface pCO2 was mainly regulated by the pronounced seasonal cycle of seawater temperature. In winter, surface waters in the GoT were under-saturated with respect to atmospheric CO2, thus acting as a sink of CO2, in particular when strong-wind events enhanced air-sea gas exchange (FCO2 up to -11.9 mmol m-2 d-1). During summer, the temperature-driven increase of pCO2 was dampened by biological CO2 uptake, as consequence a slight over-saturation (pCO2 = 409 μatm) turned out. River plumes were generally associated to higher AT and pCO2 values (up to 2859 μmol kg-1 and 606 μatm respectively), but their effect was highly variable in space and time. During winter, the ambient conditions that favour the formation of dense waters on this continental shelf, also favour a high absorption of CO2 in seawater and its consequent acidification (pHT decrease of -0.006 units during a 7-day Bora wind event). This finding indicates a high vulnerability of North Adriatic Dense Water to atmospheric CO2 increase and ocean acidification process.

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize, respectively. Additionally, compared with spring maize, the average utilization efficiencies of thermal resources of winter wheat and summer maize dramatically increased by 9.2%, 12.1% and 12.0%, respectively. The increases in the average utilization efficiencies of precipitation resources of winter wheat and summer maize were 1.78 kg hm-2 mm-1, 2.07 kg hm-2 mm-1 and 1.92 kg hm-2 mm-1 during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Our findings highlight that adjusting cropping systems can dominantly contribute to utilization efficiency increases of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China in the future.

East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2016-04-01

The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Record-breaking Ozone Loss during Arctic Winter 2010/2011: Comparison with Arctic Winter 1996/1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin Beekmann, S.; Kuttipurath, J.; Lefèvre, F.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.

2011-12-01

Polar processing and chemical ozone loss is analysed during the Arctic winter/spring 2010/2011. The analyses with temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) data show a prolonged vortex from early December through mid-April. The PV maps illustrate strong vortex persistence in the lower stratosphere between 450 and 675 K, showing similar evolution with time. The minimum temperatures extracted from ECMWF data at 40-90°N show values below 195 K for a record period of first week of December through second week of April, indicating the longest period of colder temperatures for 17 years. At 10 hPa, there was a warming of about 10 K at 60°N and 40 K at 90°N around mid-January. The heat flux also showed high values in line with the increase in temperatures, of about 425 m K/s at 60°N at the same pressure level. However, the westerlies were strong (e.g. 35-45 m/s at 60°N) enough to keep the vortex intact until mid-April. Because of the cold temperatures in late winter and early spring, large areas of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) were found in the 400-600 K isentropic level range. Though the maximum values of PSCs area are smaller compared to other cold winters such as 2005, the extended period of presence of PSCs during this winter was exceptional, especially in late February-mid-March, in agreement with the cold temperatures during the period. Ozone loss analyses with high resolution Mimosa-Chim chemical transport model simulations show that the loss started by early January, and was about 0.5 ppmv in late January. The loss progressed slowly to 1 ppmv by the end of February, and then intensified by early March. The ozone depletion estimated by the passive method finds a maximum value of about 2-2.3 ppmv by the end of March-early April in the 450-550K range inside the vortex, which coincides with the areas of PSCs and high chlorine activation. This is the largest loss ever estimated with this model for any Arctic winter. It is consistent with the unprecedented chlorine activation that occurred in the winter, as the modeled ClO values show about 1.7 ppbv in early January and about 1 ppbv in March at 450-550K. This is longest period of chlorine activation noted among the Arctic winters. The ozone partial column loss reaches about 115-150 DU in the range 350 - 550 K. These model results for ozone, ozone loss and ClO are in good agreement with those found from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Since the winter 1996/1997 was also very cold in March - April, a comparison between both winters 2011 and 1997 will be presented, based on temperature, PV, Heat flux data and ozone loss estimations. Similarities and differences in the polar processing and ozone loss during both winters will be discussed using various measurements and model simulations. Copyright 2011. All rights reserved.

Evapotranspiration and microclimate at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in northwestern Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, R.W.; DeVries, M.P.; Sturrock, Alex M.

1989-01-01

From July 1982 through June 1984, a study was made of the evapotranspiration and microclimate at a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Sheffield, Bureau County, Illinois. Vegetation at the site consists of mixed pasture grasses, primarily awnless brome (Bromus inermis) and red clover (Trifoleum pratense). Three methods were used to estimate evapotranspiration: (1) an energy budget with the Bowen ratio, (2) an aerodynamic profile, and (3) a soil-based water budget. For the aerodynamic-profile method, sensible-heat flux was estimated by a profile equation and evapotranspiration was then calculated as the residual in the energy-balance equation. Estimates by the energy-budget and aerodynamic-profile methods were computed from hourly data and then summed by days and months. Yearly estimates (for March through November) by these methods were in close agreement: 648 and 626 millimeters, respectively. Daily estimates reach a maximum of about 6 millimeters. The water-budget method produced only monthly estimates based on weekly or biweekly soil-moisture content measurements. The yearly evapotranspiration estimated by this method (which actually included only the months of April through October) was 655 millimeters. The March-through-November average for the three methods of 657 millimeters was equivalent to 70 percent of total precipitation. Continuous measurements were made of incoming and reflected shortwave radiation, incoming and emitted longwave radiation, net radiation, soil-heat flux, soil temperature, horizontal windspeed, and wet- and dry-bulb air temperature. Windspeed and air temperature were measured at heights of 0.5 and 2.0 meters (and also at 1.0 meter after September 1983). Soilmoisture content of the soil zone was measured with a gamma-attenuation gage. Annual precipitation (938 millimeters) and average temperature (10.8 degrees Celsius) at the Sheffield site were virtually identical to long-term averages from nearby National Weather Service stations. Solar radiation averaged 65 percent of that normally expected under clear skies. Net radiation averaged 70.1 watts per square meter and was highest in July and negative during some winter months. Wind direction varied but was predominately south-southeasterly. Wind speed at the 2-meter height averaged 3.5 meters per second and was slightly higher in winter months than the rest of the year. The amount of water stored within the soil zone was greatest in early spring and least in late summer. Seasonal and diurnal trends of evapotranspiration rates mirrored those of net radiation; July was usually the month with the highest evapotranspiration rate. The ratio of sensible- to latentheat fluxes (commonly called the Bowen ratio) for the 2-year study period was 0.38, as averaged from the three methods. Monthly Bowen ratios fluctuated somewhat but averaged about 0.35 for late spring through summer. In fall, the ratio declined to zero or to slightly negative values. When the ratio was negative, the latent-heat flux was slightly greater than the net radiation because of additional energy supplied by' the cooling soil and air. Evapotranspiration calculated by the three methods averaged 75 percent of potential evapotranspiration, as estimated by the Penman equation. There was no apparent seasonal trend in the relation between actual and potential evapotranspiration rates.

Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

PubMed

Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

2014-09-01

Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

[Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

PubMed

Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

2010-01-01

The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).