On determining the point of no return in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Zalinge, Brenda C.; Feng, Qing Yi; Aengenheyster, Matthias; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2017-08-01

Earth's global mean surface temperature has increased by about 1.0 °C over the period 1880-2015. One of the main causes is thought to be the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. If greenhouse gas emissions are not substantially decreased, several studies indicate that there will be a dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate by the end of this century. However, there is no good quantitative measure to determine when it is too late to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid such dangerous interference. In this study, we develop a method for determining a so-called point of no return for several greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The method is based on a combination of aspects of stochastic viability theory and linear response theory; the latter is used to estimate the probability density function of the global mean surface temperature. The innovative element in this approach is the applicability to high-dimensional climate models as demonstrated by the results obtained with the PlaSim model.

Java Climate Model: a tool for interaction between science, policy and citizens, to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, B.

2003-04-01

To reach an effective global agreement to help avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system" (UNFCCC article 2) we must balance many complex interacting issues, and also inspire the active engagement of citizens around the world. So we have to transfer understanding back from computers and experts, into the ultimate "integrated assessment model" which remains the global network of human heads. The Java Climate Model (JCM) tries to help provide a quantitative framework for this global dialogue, by enabling anybody to explore many mitigation policy options and scientific uncertainties simply by adjusting parameter controls with a mouse in a web browser. The instant response on linked plots helps to demonstrate cause and effect, and the sensitivity to various assumptions, risk and value judgements. JCM implements the same simple models and formulae as used by IPCC for the TAR projections, in efficient modular structure, including carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry, radiative forcing, changes in temperature and sealevel, including some feedbacks. As well as explore the SRES scenarios, the user can create a wide variety of inverse scenarios for stabilising CO2, forcing, or temperature. People ask how local emissions which they can control, may influence the vast global natural and human systems, and change local climate impacts which affect them directly. JCM includes regional emissions and socioeconomic data, and scaled climate impact maps. However to complete this loop in a fast interactive model is a challenge! For transparency and accessibility, pop-up information is provided in ten languages, and documentation ranges from key cross-cutting questions, to them details of the model formulae, including all source code.

Climate change: do we know enough for policy action?

PubMed

Schneider, Stephen H

2006-10-01

The climate change problem must be thought of in terms of risk, not certainty. There are many well-established elements of the problem that carry considerable confidence whereas some aspects are speculative. Therefore, the climate problem emerges not simply as a normal science research issue, but as a risk management policy debate as well. Descriptive science entails using empirical and theoretical methods to quantify the two factors that go into risk assessment: "What can happen?" and "What are the odds?" (Probability x Consequences). Policymakers should, in turn, take that information and use it to make value judgments about what is safe, what is dangerous, what is fair. To make these judgments, policymakers need to know the probabilities that experts assign to various possible outcomes in order to make risk management decisions to hedge against unsafe, dangerous and unfair outcomes. The climate debate needs to be reframed away from absolute costs--or benefits--into relative delay times to achieve specific caps or to avoid crossing specific agreed 'dangerous' climate change thresholds. Even in most optimistic scenarios, CO2 will stabilize at a much higher concentration than it has reached today, and temperature will rise accordingly. It will take even longer for sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of polar ice to occur, but what is most problematic is that how we handle our emissions now and in the next five decades preconditions the sustainability of the next millennium.

Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Does Aerosol Geoengineering the Earth's Climate Pass a Cost-Benefit Test?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, K.; Urban, N.; Tuana, N.

2007-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are changing the Earth's climate with potentially dangerous consequences. Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of CO2 emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent studies have, however, proposed an alternative strategy: to geoengineer Earth's climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. It is often claimed that aerosol geoengineering would provide net economic benefits because geoengineering requires far lower near-term investments compared to deep cuts in CO2 emissions. However, aerosol geoengineering projects can also cause nontrivial economic costs. This is because aerosol geoengineering hinges on successfully counterbalancing the forcing effects of CO2 emissions (which decay over centuries) with the forcing effects of aerosol emissions (which decay within years). A failure to maintain this delicate balance can lead to abrupt climatic changes, with potentially substantial economic damages. Deferring cuts in CO2 emissions in favor of aerosol geoengineering is hence a deeply uncertain gamble, as it requires so far unknown institutions to reliably control aerosol forcings over centuries. Here we use a simple economic model to evaluate potential costs and benefits of aerosol geoengineering for a wide range of the deeply uncertain parameters. We show that aerosol geoengineering projects may cause economic damages that can far exceed the benefits and may hence fail a cost-benefit test.

Safe caves and dangerous forests? Predation risk may contribute to salamander colonization of subterranean habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvidio, Sebastiano; Palumbi, Giulia; Romano, Antonio; Costa, Andrea

2017-04-01

Recent studies suggest that many organisms actively colonize the subterranean environment to avoid climatic stress, exploit new ecological opportunities and reduce competition and predation. Terrestrial salamanders are known to colonize the more stable subterranean habitats mainly to escape external climatic extremes, while the role of predation avoidance remains untested. To better understand the importance of predation, we used clay models of the cave salamander Speleomantes strinatii to compare the predation occurring in woodland and subterranean habitats. Models were positioned in three forests and in three caves in NW Italy. One-hundred eighty-four models were retrieved from the field and 59 (32%) were attacked by predators. Models were attacked on their head more often than expected by chance and, therefore, were perceived by predators as real prey items. In the woodlands, clay models showed a four-time higher probability of being attacked in comparison to caves, suggesting a different level of potential predation risk in these surface habitats. These findings are one of the first experimental evidences that, in terrestrial ecosystems, predation avoidance may contribute to the salamander underground colonization process.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

2013-01-01

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille;

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

PubMed Central

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

2013-01-01

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

Science, Ethics and the Climate Responsibilities of Industrial Carbon Producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frumhoff, P. C.

2014-12-01

The question of responsibility for climate change lies at the heart of societal debate over actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for now unavoidable climate impacts. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change established the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" among nations, signaling the recognition that industrialized nations who had produced the lion's share of historic emissions bore particular responsibility for avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system. But climate responsibilities can be distributed in other ways as well. This talk focuses on the scientific, historical and ethical basis for considering the climate responsibilities of the major fossil energy companies that have produced and marketed the coal, oil and natural gas whose use largely drives global warming, often while investing in efforts to discredit the scientific evidence and prevent policies that would encourage a transition to low-carbon energy. Earth scientists and scientific societies who rely on financial support from these companies have an opportunity to consider what ethical stance they might take to align their research, scientific understanding and values.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Mechanisms controlling the dependence of surface warming on cumulative carbon emissions over the next century in a suite of Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Richard; Roussenov, Vassil; Goodwin, Philip; Resplandy, Laure; Bopp, Laurent

2017-04-01

Insight into how to avoid dangerous climate may be obtained from Earth system model projections, which reveal a near-linear dependence of global-mean surface warming on cumulative carbon emissions. This dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2 and the dependence of radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 on cumulative carbon emissions. Mechanistically each of these dependences varies, respectively, with ocean heat uptake, the CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcing, and the ocean and terrestrial uptake of carbon. An ensemble of 9 Earth System models forced by up to 4 Representative Concentration Pathways are diagnosed. In all cases, the dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions evolves primarily due to competing effects of heat and carbon uptake over the upper ocean: there is a reduced effect of radiative forcing from CO2 due to ocean carbon uptake, which is partly compensated by enhanced surface warming due to a reduced effect of ocean heat uptake. There is a wide spread in the dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions, undermining the ability to identify the maximum permitted carbon emission to avoid dangerous climate. Our framework reveals how uncertainty in the future warming trend is high over the next few decades due to relatively high uncertainties in ocean heat uptake, non-CO2 radiative forcing and the undersaturation of carbon in the ocean.

A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Anne

2011-06-01

The U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at double the preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To achieve this goal, carbon emissions in 2050 must not exceed their current level, despite predictions of a dramatic increase in global electricity demand. The need to reduce GHG emissions and simultaneously provide for additional electricity demand has led to a renewed interest in the expansion of alternatives to fossil fuels—particularly renewable energy and nuclear power. As renewable energy sources are often constrained by the intermittency of natural energy forms, scale-ability concerns, cost and environmental barriers, many governments and even prominent environmentalist turn to nuclear energy as a source of clean, reliable base-load electricity. Described by some as a "nuclear renaissance", this trend of embracing nuclear power as a tool to mitigate climate change will dramatically influence the feasibility of emerging nuclear programs around the world.

A Nuclear Renaissance: The Role of Nuclear Power in Mitigating Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winslow, Anne

2011-06-28

The U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at double the preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To achieve this goal, carbon emissions in 2050 must not exceed their current level, despite predictions of a dramatic increase in global electricity demand. The need to reduce GHG emissions and simultaneously provide for additional electricity demand has led to a renewed interest in the expansion of alternatives to fossil fuels--particularly renewable energy and nuclear power. As renewable energy sources are often constrained by the intermittencymore » of natural energy forms, scale-ability concerns, cost and environmental barriers, many governments and even prominent environmentalist turn to nuclear energy as a source of clean, reliable base-load electricity. Described by some as a ''nuclear renaissance'', this trend of embracing nuclear power as a tool to mitigate climate change will dramatically influence the feasibility of emerging nuclear programs around the world.« less

The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2007-04-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

Co-Evolution of Social Learning and Evolutionary Preparedness in Dangerous Environments

PubMed Central

Lindström, Björn; Selbing, Ida; Olsson, Andreas

2016-01-01

Danger is a fundamental aspect of the lives of most animals. Adaptive behavior therefore requires avoiding actions, objects, and environments associated with danger. Previous research has shown that humans and non-human animals can avoid such dangers through two types of behavioral adaptions, (i) genetic preparedness to avoid certain stimuli or actions, and (ii) social learning. These adaptive mechanisms reduce the fitness costs associated with danger but still allow flexible behavior. Despite the empirical prevalence and importance of both these mechanisms, it is unclear when they evolve and how they interact. We used evolutionary agent-based simulations, incorporating empirically based learning mechanisms, to clarify if preparedness and social learning typically both evolve in dangerous environments, and if these mechanisms generally interact synergistically or antagonistically. Our simulations showed that preparedness and social learning often co-evolve because they provide complimentary benefits: genetic preparedness reduced foraging efficiency, but resulted in a higher rate of survival in dangerous environments, while social learning generally came to dominate the population, especially when the environment was stochastic. However, even in this case, genetic preparedness reliably evolved. Broadly, our results indicate that the relationship between preparedness and social learning is important as it can result in trade-offs between behavioral flexibility and safety, which can lead to seemingly suboptimal behavior if the evolutionary environment of the organism is not taken into account. PMID:27487079

Co-Evolution of Social Learning and Evolutionary Preparedness in Dangerous Environments.

PubMed

Lindström, Björn; Selbing, Ida; Olsson, Andreas

2016-01-01

Danger is a fundamental aspect of the lives of most animals. Adaptive behavior therefore requires avoiding actions, objects, and environments associated with danger. Previous research has shown that humans and non-human animals can avoid such dangers through two types of behavioral adaptions, (i) genetic preparedness to avoid certain stimuli or actions, and (ii) social learning. These adaptive mechanisms reduce the fitness costs associated with danger but still allow flexible behavior. Despite the empirical prevalence and importance of both these mechanisms, it is unclear when they evolve and how they interact. We used evolutionary agent-based simulations, incorporating empirically based learning mechanisms, to clarify if preparedness and social learning typically both evolve in dangerous environments, and if these mechanisms generally interact synergistically or antagonistically. Our simulations showed that preparedness and social learning often co-evolve because they provide complimentary benefits: genetic preparedness reduced foraging efficiency, but resulted in a higher rate of survival in dangerous environments, while social learning generally came to dominate the population, especially when the environment was stochastic. However, even in this case, genetic preparedness reliably evolved. Broadly, our results indicate that the relationship between preparedness and social learning is important as it can result in trade-offs between behavioral flexibility and safety, which can lead to seemingly suboptimal behavior if the evolutionary environment of the organism is not taken into account.

PERSPECTIVE: On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kriegler, Elmar

2007-03-01

The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk. In his article [2], Harvey puts this idea into operation by presenting a back-of-the-envelope calculation to identify allowable CO2 concentrations under uncertainty about climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the location of a temperature threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur. Conditional on his assumptions, Harvey delivers an interesting result. With the current atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeding 380 ppm, a forcing contribution from other greenhouse gases adding an approximate 100 110 ppm CO2 equivalent on top of it, and a global dimming effect of aerosols that roughly compensates for this contribution (albeit still subject to considerable uncertainty) ([1], figures SPM-1 and 2), we are on the verge of or even committed to dangerous interference with the climate system if we (1) set the risk tolerance for experiencing dangerous climate change to 1% and (2) allocate at least 5% probability to the belief that climate sensitivity is 4.5 °C or higher. In the language of the IPCC, the latter would mean that such a high climate sensitivity is anything but extremely unlikely ([1], footnote 6 and p 9), a view that is shared by many in the scientific community. Even if the risk tolerance is increased to 10%, the maximum allowable CO2 equivalent concentration remains below 460 ppm ([2], figure 7(c)). We are bound to reach that concentration in the near future, as it can be surpassed both by addition of new greenhouse gases and by a reduction of global dimming. Given the potential significance of this result, let us take a step back, and investigate its underlying assumptions. The concept of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference' is inextricably linked to the idea of a threshold beyond which climate change can be labeled dangerous. This idea enters Harvey's analysis in the form of a probability distribution for the—as he calls it—'harm threshold' measured in terms of global mean temperature increase since preindustrial time. It might be due to the presumption of such a threshold that climate science and society at large have had a difficult relationship with the concept of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference' (Dessai et al [3]). Nevertheless, I want to argue here, as many have done before (see Oppenheimer and Petsonk [4] for an overview), that this concept is not ill-defined. First of all, it is clear that 'dangerous interference' and the stipulation of a 'harm threshold' carry a value judgment, and therefore cannot be decided upon purely by science. This does not prevent science, however, from providing information and conceptual frameworks to facilitate such judgment (Schellnhuber et al [5]). Secondly, it is certainly true that our interference with the climate system emanates from local and national action, and that the consequences of such interference will first and foremost be felt on the local to regional scale. However, this does not need to conflict with the assessment of a global 'harm threshold'. The nexus of climate policy is inevitably global since our interference with the climate system is determined by the sum total of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, we are living in a highly interconnected world, and it would be foolish not to take global patterns of drivers and impacts of climate change into account. Finally, some may find the assumption of a harm threshold at odds with a cost benefit approach, since the latter implies trading off avoided climate damage with the costs of mitigation measures. However, even if such a trade-off is made, harm thresholds will occur if damage rises sharply beyond some critical amount of climate change. A look into the climate history will convince us that this is not a far-fetched idea. Climate changes in the past have often exhibited highly non-linear behaviour (see figure 1). Although the paleoclimatic record does not provide a perfect analogue to the current situation, it offers little comfort that abrupt climate change in response to our massive and rapid increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations might not happen in the future. Consequently, cost benefit analyses accounting for the prospect of dangerous climate change have surfaced in recent years (e.g. Keller et al [6]). In addition, society has been prepared to set thresholds, e.g., to limit exposure to contaminants, even in situations where no clear jump in damage could be identified. And often such identification of thresholds was aided by cost benefit analysis (e.g. Gurian et al [7]). Is it appropriate to offer a deep time perspective on climate change such as presented in figure 1 in a discussion of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference'? Yes, because the magnitude of the anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle forces us to go back far into the past, if we want to look for clues of what might happen in the future. Certainly, some of the climate changes reflected in figure 1 are a result of volcanism and continental drift, in particular the opening and closing of sea passages. However, recent data indicate that the carbon cycle was a major player in the transition from the Eocene hothouse to the modern-day icehouse world (e.g. Moran et al [11], Zachos et al [12]). The studies by Zachos et al [12] and Pearson and Palmer [13] found that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere decreased from well above 1000 ppm during the Eocene to below or around 300 ppm during the Mio-, Plio- and Pleistocene. On the basis of their data, it is likely that present-day levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have not occurred for the last 23 million years. Moreover, projections of the growing anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle in the 21st century, including scenarios that aim at stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentration at twice its preindustrial value, carry us to carbon dioxide levels that were last seen during the Oligocene, where major restructuring of the climate system occurred. But what about time scales? Certainly, climate policy cannot be concerned with climate changes that unravel over millions of years. However, the slowest processes in the climate system, i.e., heat penetration into the deep ocean and changes in ice sheet volume, operate on time scales of thousands of years, with deglaciation potentially occurring much faster within hundreds of years. Hence, if the driver is sufficiently fast, rapid climate change can occur. This is evidenced in the paleoclimatic record shown in figure 1 by the event called Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 55 million years ago. During the PETM, global temperatures rose by 5 10 °C to presumably the hottest conditions during the Cenozoic era in a matter of several thousand years (Zachos et al [14]) due to a large perturbation of the carbon cycle (Zachos et al [15]) of hitherto unknown cause (Pagani et al [16]). A millennial time scale is still far beyond the time horizon of current socio-economic activity, but this is just the time scale for the system to equilibrate (bar the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere ocean-biosphere reservoir which proceeds much more slowly [15]). Significant changes will be felt much earlier. And when it comes to assessing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' that has the potential to change the face of the planet for a hundred thousand or more years to come, an extension of our time horizon to several hundred years seems to be appropriate. Oxygen-18 stable isotope ratios in benthic foraminifera for the last 65 million years Figure 1. Any harm threshold here? Shown are δ18O stable isotope ratios (18O:16O relative to standard mean ocean water) in benthic foraminifera for the last 65 million years from Zachos et al [8]. The stable isotope ratio of the oxygen contained in the calcium carbonate of the foram shells depends on the water temperature in which they calcified (the warmer the water, the smaller δ18O). A complication arises from the fact that it also depends on the δ18O of the surrounding sea water, which is affected by latitude, evaporation and rainfall, and the presence or absence of large ice sheets. Therefore, these measurements can only be tied uniquely to past ocean temperatures for the early Cenozoic hothouse (Paleo- and Eocene) where no ice sheets existed, and for the most recent period by observing that the oxygen isotope measurements by Lisiecki and Raymo [9] are tightly correlated to temperature changes identified in the Vostok ice core (Petit et al [10]). Present day is indicated as 0. The large shifts of isotope ratio during the Oligocene also reflect changes in ice sheet volume. The figure was prepared by Robert A Rohde from published and publicly available data, and is distributed under the GNU free documentation license at www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:65_Myr_Climate_Change_Rev_png. While the paleoclimatic record in figure 1 can inform us that 'dangerous interference with the climate system' may be in store for a species that evolved during icehouse conditions, it can not yet point us to specific harm thresholds in the climate system. Our knowledge about the climate in the past is still too sparse, and the analogy to present-day conditions too limited. In order to get a better idea about harm thresholds as the global mean temperature continues to increase, we need to turn to model projections of future climate change and associated impacts, as well as our own normative assessment of what might be labeled dangerous and what not. Given the imperfection of state-of-the-art model projections, e.g., in terms of extreme event statistics (although some have become available, see Tebaldi et al [17]), agreement on the regional scale (although improving, see [1], p 12 and figure SPM-6), and ability to model abrupt climate change, and the foreseeable disagreement between societal groups on what might be dangerous, this will certainly be an exercise in guestimating and consensus finding on some sort of uncertainty measure for the location of thresholds to dangerous climate change. In his article, Harvey offers his own take on the problem by presenting two different harm-threshold probability distributions: a stringent variant with median at 1.5 °C and 95% quantile at 2.7 °C of global mean temperature increase since preindustrial time, and a more lenient variant with median at 2.5 °C and 95% quantile at 3.8 °C. Whether or not one believes the temperature values attached to the list of impacts that Harvey offers in support of his harm assessment, there is still a value judgment about the 'dangerousness' of these impacts to be made. As Harvey points out himself, this is a question that can be informed, but not answered by science. Consequently, the allowable CO2 concentrations to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system presented in Harvey's article reflect a value judgment. So it is for you, the reader, and society at large to decide whether or not these findings are significant. If your judgment about the onset of dangerous climate change lies somewhere in the range of Harvey's harm-threshold probability distributions, his results will carry meaning for you. I, for my part, can certainly answer this question in the affirmative. Once we accept this range of harm-threshold probabilities, the natural question emerges whether Harvey's result indicating that we are on the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system is inevitable. Is there an easy way out by adjusting the methodological framework that would present us considerably larger allowances of carbon in the atmosphere? It does not seem so. The virtue of Harvey's back-of-the-envelope calculation is that it includes the dominant factors in a simple, but fairly robust manner, which makes it hard to significantly alter the outcome by changing the details. Harvey has considered a wide range of medians and 95% quantiles for the probability distribution of climate sensitivity, but what if we changed the shape of both the climate sensitivity and harm-threshold probability density function (PDF)? After all, there is no particular reason why they should follow a lognormal distribution as Harvey assumed. The answer to this question is harbored by equation (1) of his article. The smaller the overlap between the climate sensitivity PDF and the harm-threshold CDF, the greater the carbon allowance available without committing dangerous interference with the climate system will be. And in this respect, Harvey's assumption of lognormality for both distributions goes some way in minimizing the overlap across possible shapes for fixed median and 95% quantiles. So what about peaking concentrations that can reach higher carbon dioxide levels because the part of the equilibrium warming they would entail will never be realized due to the time lag of the temperature response? Harvey has included this—as he calls it—climate-disequilibrium credit in his analysis, and thus his dire assessment of the proximity of dangerous interference extends to the case of transient climate change. True, he has not considered uncertainty in the heat uptake of the ocean that dominates the time lag of the temperature response along with climate sensitivity. But assuming a larger heat uptake and a slower temperature response within the confidence bounds allowed by the 20th century temperature and ocean heat content records is unlikely to change the carbon allowance by more than a few tens of ppm. Thus, Harvey's findings seem to stand firm once we underwrite the value judgment that the probability of dangerous climate change lies somewhere in the range of the harm-threshold probability distributions put forward in his article. The new sense of urgency to address climate change mirrors this judgment. References [1] IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) in preparation (available for download at http://www.ipcc.ch) [2] Harvey L D D 2007 Allowable CO2 concentrations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a function of the climate sensitivity probability distribution function Environ. Res. Lett. 2 014001 [3] Dessai S, Adger W N, Hulme M, Turnpenny J, Köhler J and Warren R 2004 Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change Clim. Change 64 11 25 [4] Oppenheimer M and Petsonk A 2005 Article 2 of the UNFCCC: historical origins, recent interpretations Clim. Change 73 195 226 [5] Schellnhuber H J, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T and Yohe G (ed) 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 392 [6] Keller K, Hall M, Kim S R, Bradford D F and Oppenheimer M 2005 Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system Clim. Change 73 227 38 [7] Gurian P L, Small M J, Lockwood J R and Schervish M J 2001 Benefit-cost estimation for alternative drinking water maximum contaminant levels Water Resources Res. 37 2213 16 [8] Zachos J C, Pagani M, Sloan L, Thomas E and Billups K 2001 Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present Science 292 686 93 [9] Lisiecki L E and Raymo M E 2005 A Pliocene Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records Paleoceanography 20 PA1003 [10] Petit J R, Jouzel J, Raynaud D, Barkov N I, Barnola J M, Basile I, Bender M, Chappellaz J, Davis J, Delaygue G, Delmotte M, Kotlyakov V M, Legrand M, Lipenkov V, Lorius C, Pépin L, Ritz C, Saltzman E and Stievenard M 1999 Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420 000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica Nature 399 429 36 [11] Morgan K and the ACEX expedition team 2006 The Cenozic paleoenvironment of the Arctic Ocean Nature 441 601 5 [12] Pagani M, Zachos J C, Freeman K H, Tipple B and Bohaty S 2005 Marked decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the paleogene Science 309 600 3 [13] Pearson P N and Palmer M R 2000 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years Nature 406 695 9 [14] Zachos J C, Wara M W, Bohaty S, Delaney M L, Petrizzo M R, Brill A, Bralower, T J and Premoli-Silva I 2003 A transient rise in tropical sea surface temperature during the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum Science 302 1551 4 [15] Zachos J C, Röhl U, Schellenberg S A, Sluijs A, Hodell D A, Kelly D C, Thomas E, Nicolo M, Raffi I, Lourens L J, McCarren H and Kroon D 2005 Rapid acidification of the ocean during the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum Science 308 1611 5 [16] Pagani M, Caldeira K, Archer D, Zachos J C 2006 An ancient carbon mystery Science 314 1556 7 [17] Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster J M and Meehl G A 2006 Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events Clim. Change 79 185 211 Photo of Elmar Kriegler Elmar Kriegler received a diploma (MS equivalent) degree in physics from the Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, Germany, in 1998, and a PhD degree in physics from the University of Potsdam, Germany, in 2005. He worked for seven years as a graduate/post-doctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research on topics relating to the integrated assessment of climate change. He is now a visiting researcher at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA, where he works—with support by a Marie-Curie Outgoing International Fellowship from the European Union—on the evaluation of climate policies under large uncertainty about climate change.

Dangerous climate change and collective action. Comment on "Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Jorge M. Pacheco, Vítor V. Vasconcelos, and Francisco C. Santos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid

2014-12-01

Climate change perhaps is the greatest collective action problem mankind has ever faced and the international community is still at a loss for how to get the ever rising greenhouse gas emissions under control. Does the risk of crossing a "dangerous" climate threshold improve the prospects of collective action?

Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Kelly E.

Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated. We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment does not pose the same threat to Antarctic ice sheets. We conclude that again, reduction of greenhouse gases is the preferred strategy for avoiding climate impacts of global warming.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-01

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.

PubMed

Matthews, Tom K R; Wilby, Robert L; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-11

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

Potentiation of the early visual response to learned danger signals in adults and adolescents

PubMed Central

Howsley, Philippa; Jordan, Jeff; Johnston, Pat

2015-01-01

The reinforcing effects of aversive outcomes on avoidance behaviour are well established. However, their influence on perceptual processes is less well explored, especially during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Using electroencephalography, we examined whether learning to actively or passively avoid harm can modulate early visual responses in adolescents and adults. The task included two avoidance conditions, active and passive, where two different warning stimuli predicted the imminent, but avoidable, presentation of an aversive tone. To avoid the aversive outcome, participants had to learn to emit an action (active avoidance) for one of the warning stimuli and omit an action for the other (passive avoidance). Both adults and adolescents performed the task with a high degree of accuracy. For both adolescents and adults, increased N170 event-related potential amplitudes were found for both the active and the passive warning stimuli compared with control conditions. Moreover, the potentiation of the N170 to the warning stimuli was stable and long lasting. Developmental differences were also observed; adolescents showed greater potentiation of the N170 component to danger signals. These findings demonstrate, for the first time, that learned danger signals in an instrumental avoidance task can influence early visual sensory processes in both adults and adolescents. PMID:24652856

Associative learning for danger avoidance nullifies innate positive chemotaxis to host olfactory stimuli in a parasitic wasp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benelli, Giovanni; Stefanini, Cesare; Giunti, Giulia; Geri, Serena; Messing, Russell H.; Canale, Angelo

2014-09-01

Animals rely on associative learning for a wide range of purposes, including danger avoidance. This has been demonstrated for several insects, including cockroaches, mosquitoes, drosophilid flies, paper wasps, stingless bees, bumblebees and honeybees, but less is known for parasitic wasps. We tested the ability of Psyttalia concolor (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) females to associate different dosages of two innately attractive host-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs), ethyl octanoate and decanal, with danger (electric shocks). We conducted an associative treatment involving odours and shocks and two non-associative controls involving shocks but not odours and odours but not shocks. In shock-only and odour-only trained wasps, females preferred on HIPV-treated than on blank discs. In associative-trained wasps, however, P. concolor's innate positive chemotaxis for HIPVs was nullified (lowest HIPV dosage tested) or reversed (highest HIPV dosage tested). This is the first report of associative learning of olfactory cues for danger avoidance in parasitic wasps, showing that the effects of learning can override innate positive chemotaxes.

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

Treesearch

W. Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Patrick H. Freeborn; Zachary A. Holden; Timothy J. Brown; Grant J. Williamson; David M. J. S. Bowman

2015-01-01

Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have...

Some Good Practices for Integration and Outreach and their Implementation in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and its associated web portal CLIMASCOPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R. F.; Price, J. T.; Goswami, S.

2010-12-01

Successful communication of knowledge to climate change policy makers requires the careful integration of scientific knowledge in an integrated assessment that can be clearly communicated to stakeholders, and which encapsulates the uncertainties in the analysis and conveys the need for using a risk assessment approach. It is important that (i) the system is co-designed with the users (ii) relevant disciplines are included (iii) assumptions made are clear (iv) the robustness of outputs to uncertainties is demonstrated (v) the system is flexible so that it can keep up with changing stakeholder needs and (vi) the results are communicated clearly and are readily accessible. The “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS) is a unique multi-institutional, modular, and flexible integrated assessment system for modeling climate change which fulfils the above six criteria. It differs from other integrated models in being a flexible system allowing various combinations of component modules, to be connected together into alternative integrated assessment models. These modules may be written at different institutions in different computer languages and/or based on different operating systems. Scientists are able determine which particular CIAS coupled model they wish to use through a web portal. This includes the facility to implement Latin hypercube experimental design facilitating formal uncertainty analysis. Further exploration of robustness is possible through the ability to select, for example, alternative hyrdrological or climate models to address the same questions. It has been applied to study future scenarios of climate change mitigation, through for example the AVOIDing dangerous climate change project for DEFRA, in which the avoided impacts (benefits) of alternative climate policies were compared to no-policy baselines. These highlight the potential for mitigation to remove a substantial fraction of the climate change impacts that would otherwise occur; but also show that is not possible to avoid all the impacts, and hence that adaptation will still be required. For example, this has been shown for projections of future European drought. CIAS has also been used for analyses used in the IPCC 4AR and the Stern review. Recent applications include a study of the role of avoided deforestation in climate mitigation, and a study of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. A second web portal, CLIMASCOPE, is being developed for use by stakeholders, currently focusing on the needs of adaptation planners. This will benefit communication by allowing a wide range of users free access to regional climate change projections in simple manner, yet one which encourages risk assessment through encapsulation of the uncertainties in climate change projection. Examples of CLIMASCOPE output that is being made available to stakeholders will be shown.

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead.

PubMed

Ramanathan, V; Feng, Y

2008-09-23

The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4 degrees C (1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4 degrees C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1 degrees C to 3 degrees C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that approximately 25% (0.6 degrees C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6 degrees C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO(2) mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 degrees C.

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.

2008-01-01

The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C. PMID:18799733

[Prediction on the changes of forest fire danger rating in Great Xing'an Mountain region of Northeast China in the 21st century under effects of climate change].

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Shu, Li-Fu; Di, Xue-Ying

2012-12-01

Based on the A2a and B2a climatic scenarios for both the baseline period (1961-1990) and the future scenario periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) from the Hadley Centre's General Circulation, and by using Delta method, WGEN downscaling methods, and Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, this paper classified the forest fire dangers in Great Xing' an Mountains region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, predicted the changes of the forest fire danger rating in the period 2010-2099 relative to baseline period (1961-1990), and analyzed the uncertainty of the long-term prediction of forest fire danger rating. It was predicted that under the background of climate warming, the mean annual days of extremely high, very high, and medium forest dangers in study region in the 21st century all showed an increasing trend, while the mean annual days of high and low forest dangers were in adverse. Relative to the baseline period of 1961-1990, the mean annual days of extremely high and very high forest dangers in the 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a would be increased by 43 and 36, and 62 and 61, respectively.

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications.

PubMed

New, Mark; Liverman, Diana; Schroeder, Heike; Schroder, Heike; Anderson, Kevin

2011-01-13

The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits signatories to preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is dangerous. In the late 1990s, a limit of 2°C global warming above preindustrial temperature was proposed as a 'guard rail' below which most of the dangerous climate impacts could be avoided. The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view 'that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius' despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3°C or 4°C within this century. Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4°C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4°C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming is to be limited to 2°C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors--coastal cities, agriculture, water stress, ecosystems, migration--the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4°C will be larger than at 2°C. In some cases, such as farming in sub-Saharan Africa, a +4°C warming could result in the collapse of systems or require transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts and the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these impacts argue for renewed efforts to reduce emissions, using all available mechanisms, to minimize the chances of high-end climate change. Yet at the same time, there is a need for accelerated and focused research that improves understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such changes might be and how best to adapt to what would be unprecedented changes in the world we live in.

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Effect of perceived threat on avoidance maneuvers selected while viewing cockpit traffic displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. D.; Ellis, S. R.

1982-01-01

Ten airline pilots rated the collision danger of air traffic presented on cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) while they monitored simulated departures from Denver. They selected avoidance maneuvers when necessary for separation. Most evasive maneuvers were turns rather than vertical maneuvers. Evasive maneuvers chosen for encounters with low or moderate perceived collision danger were generally toward the intruding aircraft. This tendency lessened as the perceived threat level increased. In the highest threat situations pilots turned toward the intruder only at chance levels. Some of the implications of the pilots' turning-towards tendencies are discussed with respect to automatic collision avoidance systems and coordination of avoidance maneuvers of conflicting aircraft.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

PubMed Central

Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

2017-01-01

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations. PMID:28348220

Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

2016-12-01

Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

Avoidance maneuevers selected while viewing cockpit traffic displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. D.; Ellis, S. R.; Lee, E.

1982-01-01

Ten airline pilots rates the collision danger of air traffic presented on cockpit displays of traffic information while they monitored simulated departures from Denver. They selected avoidance maneuvers when necessary for separation. Most evasive maneuvers were turns rather than vertical maneuvers. Evasive maneuvers chosen for encounters with low or moderate collision danger were generally toward the intruding aircraft. This tendency lessened as the perceived threat level increased. In the highest threst situations pilots turned toward the intruder only at chance levels. Intruders coming from positions in front of the pilot's own ship were more frequently avoided by turns toward than when intruders approached laterally or from behind. Some of the implications of the pilots' turning-toward tendencies are discussed with respect to automatic collision avoidance systems and coordination of avoidance maneuvers of conflicting aircraft.

On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.

2009-12-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

Infant Sleep Positioners Pose Suffocation Risk

MedlinePlus

... back to top About Infant Suffocation and Other Dangers Each year, about 4,000 infants die unexpectedly ... or next to these products. To avoid these dangers, remember: The safest crib is a bare crib. ...

Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA

Treesearch

J. Roads; F. Fujioka; S. Chen; R. Burgan

2005-01-01

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (DFDRS), which include the ignition component (IC), energy release component (ER), burning...

How Framing Climate Change Influences Citizen Scientists' Intentions to Do Something about It

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickinson, Janis L.; Crain, Rhiannon; Yalowitz, Steve; Cherry, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

How we communicate the dangers of climate change may influence attitudes, intentions, and behaviors. Here we test two pairs of positive and negative framing statements with North American citizen scientists interested in gardening and birdwatching. Mentioning dangers for humans did not increase participants' interest in taking personal action on…

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Perceived threat and avoidance maneuvers in response to cockpit traffic displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. D.; Ellis, S. R.; Lee, E. C.

1984-01-01

Airline pilots rated their perception of the danger of an air-to-air collision based on cockpit displays of traffic information while they monitored simulated departures. They selected avoidance maneuvers when necessary for separation. Most evasive maneuvers were turns rather than vertical maneuvers. Evasive maneuvers chosen for encounters with lowor moderate-collision danger were generally toward the intruding aircraft. This tendency lessened as the perceived threat level increased. In the highest threat situations, pilots turned toward the intruder only at chance levels. Intruders coming from positions in front of the pilot's ship were more frequently avoided by turns toward than when intruders approached laterally or from behind. Some of the implications of the pilot's turning-toward tendencies are discussed with respect to automatic collision avoidance systems and coordination of avoidance maneuvers of conflicting aircraft.

Climate change and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Faith Ann Heinsch; Charles W. McHugh

2010-01-01

Studies have indicated that changes in wildland fire activity are, at least in part, a product of climate change. Fire danger indices, driven by climatology, should reflect these changes. Energy Release Component (ERC) is considered to be an effective indicator of drought conditions and seasonal drying of forest fuels and is often used in fire management planning....

Keep Away from Danger: Dangerous Objects in Dynamic and Static Situations

PubMed Central

Anelli, Filomena; Nicoletti, Roberto; Bolzani, Roberto; Borghi, Anna M.

2013-01-01

Behavioral and neuroscience studies have shown that objects observation evokes specific affordances (i.e., action possibilities) and motor responses. Recent findings provide evidence that even dangerous objects can modulate the motor system evoking aversive affordances. This sounds intriguing since so far the majority of behavioral, brain imaging, and transcranial magnetic stimulation studies with painful and dangerous stimuli strictly concerned the domain of pain, with the exception of evidence suggesting sensitivity to objects’ affordances when neutral objects are located in participants’ peripersonal space. This study investigates whether the observation of a neutral or dangerous object in a static or dynamic situation differently influences motor responses, and the time-course of the dangerous objects’ processing. In three experiments we manipulated: object dangerousness (neutral vs. dangerous); object category (artifact vs. natural); manual response typology (press vs. release a key); object presentation (Experiment 1: dynamic, Experiments 2 and 3: static); object movement direction (Experiment 1: away vs. toward the participant) or size (Experiments 2 and 3: big vs. normal vs. small). The task required participants to decide whether the object was an artifact or a natural object, by pressing or releasing one key. Results showed a facilitation for neutral over dangerous objects in the static situation, probably due to an affordance effect. Instead, in the dynamic condition responses were modulated by the object movement direction, with a dynamic affordance effect elicited by neutral objects and an escape-avoidance effect provoked by dangerous objects (neutral objects were processed faster when they moved toward-approached the participant, whereas dangerous objects were processed faster when they moved away from the participant). Moreover, static stimuli influenced the manual response typology. These data indicate the emergence of dynamic affordance and escaping-avoidance effects. PMID:23847512

Keep away from danger: dangerous objects in dynamic and static situations.

PubMed

Anelli, Filomena; Nicoletti, Roberto; Bolzani, Roberto; Borghi, Anna M

2013-01-01

Behavioral and neuroscience studies have shown that objects observation evokes specific affordances (i.e., action possibilities) and motor responses. Recent findings provide evidence that even dangerous objects can modulate the motor system evoking aversive affordances. This sounds intriguing since so far the majority of behavioral, brain imaging, and transcranial magnetic stimulation studies with painful and dangerous stimuli strictly concerned the domain of pain, with the exception of evidence suggesting sensitivity to objects' affordances when neutral objects are located in participants' peripersonal space. This study investigates whether the observation of a neutral or dangerous object in a static or dynamic situation differently influences motor responses, and the time-course of the dangerous objects' processing. In three experiments we manipulated: object dangerousness (neutral vs. dangerous); object category (artifact vs. natural); manual response typology (press vs. release a key); object presentation (Experiment 1: dynamic, Experiments 2 and 3: static); object movement direction (Experiment 1: away vs. toward the participant) or size (Experiments 2 and 3: big vs. normal vs. small). The task required participants to decide whether the object was an artifact or a natural object, by pressing or releasing one key. Results showed a facilitation for neutral over dangerous objects in the static situation, probably due to an affordance effect. Instead, in the dynamic condition responses were modulated by the object movement direction, with a dynamic affordance effect elicited by neutral objects and an escape-avoidance effect provoked by dangerous objects (neutral objects were processed faster when they moved toward-approached the participant, whereas dangerous objects were processed faster when they moved away from the participant). Moreover, static stimuli influenced the manual response typology. These data indicate the emergence of dynamic affordance and escaping-avoidance effects.

Low-Cost Avoidance Behaviors are Resistant to Fear Extinction in Humans

PubMed Central

Vervliet, Bram; Indekeu, Ellen

2015-01-01

Elevated levels of fear and avoidance are core symptoms across the anxiety disorders. It has long been known that fear serves to motivate avoidance. Consequently, fear extinction has been the primary focus in pre-clinical anxiety research for decades, under the implicit assumption that removing the motivator of avoidance (fear) would automatically mitigate the avoidance behaviors as well. Although this assumption has intuitive appeal, it has received little scientific scrutiny. The scarce evidence from animal studies is mixed, while the assumption remains untested in humans. The current study applied an avoidance conditioning protocol in humans to investigate the effects of fear extinction on the persistence of low-cost avoidance. Online danger-safety ratings and skin conductance responses documented the dynamics of conditioned fear across avoidance and extinction phases. Anxiety- and avoidance-related questionnaires explored individual differences in rates of avoidance. Participants first learned to click a button during a predictive danger signal, in order to cancel an upcoming aversive electrical shock (avoidance conditioning). Next, fear extinction was induced by presenting the signal in the absence of shocks while button-clicks were prevented (by removing the button in Experiment 1, or by instructing not to click the button in Experiment 2). Most importantly, post-extinction availability of the button caused a significant return of avoidant button-clicks. In addition, trait-anxiety levels correlated positively with rates of avoidance during a predictive safety signal, and with the rate of pre- to post-extinction decrease during this signal. Fear measures gradually decreased during avoidance conditioning, as participants learned that button-clicks effectively canceled the shock. Preventing button-clicks elicited a sharp increase in fear, which subsequently extinguished. Fear remained low during avoidance testing, but danger-safety ratings increased again when button-clicks were subsequently prevented. Together, these results show that low-cost avoidance behaviors can persist following fear extinction and induce increased threat appraisal. On the other hand, fear extinction did reduce augmented rates of unnecessary avoidance during safety in trait-anxious individuals, and instruction-based response prevention was more effective than removal of response cues. More research is needed to characterize the conditions under which fear extinction might mitigate avoidance. PMID:26733837

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

PubMed

Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

2009-12-08

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

Midlatitude Summer Drying: An Underestimated Threat in CMIP5 Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douville, H.; Plazzotta, M.

2017-10-01

Early assessments of the hydrological impacts of global warming suggested both an intensification of the global water cycle and an expansion of dry areas. Yet these alarming conclusions were challenged by a number of latter studies emphasizing the lack of evidence in observations and historical simulations, as well as the large uncertainties in climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here several aridity indices and a two-tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer midlatitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long-term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected midlatitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models. Mitigating global warming therefore remains a priority to avoid dangerous impacts on global water and food security.

Antipredator behaviours of a spider mite in response to cues of dangerous and harmless predators.

PubMed

Dias, Cleide Rosa; Bernardo, Ana Maria Guimarães; Mencalha, Jussara; Freitas, Caelum Woods Carvalho; Sarmento, Renato Almeida; Pallini, Angelo; Janssen, Arne

2016-07-01

Prey are known to invest in costly antipredator behaviour when perceiving cues of dangerous, but not of relatively harmless predators. Whereas most studies investigate one type of antipredator behaviour, we studied several types (changes in oviposition, in escape and avoidance behaviour) in the spider mite Tetranychus evansi in response to cues from two predatory mites. The predator Phytoseiulus longipes is considered a dangerous predator for T. evansi, whereas Phytoseiulus macropilis has a low predation rate on this prey, thus is a much less dangerous predator. Spider mite females oviposited less on leaf disc halves with predator cues than on clean disc halves, independent of the predator species. On entire leaf discs, they laid fewer eggs in the presence of cues of the dangerous predator than on clean discs, but not in the presence of cues of the harmless predator. Furthermore, the spider mites escaped more often from discs with cues of the dangerous predator than from discs without predator cues, but they did not escape more from discs with cues of the harmless predator. The spider mites did not avoid plants with conspecifics and predators. We conclude that the spider mites displayed several different antipredator responses to the same predator species, and that some of these antipredator responses were stronger with cues of dangerous predators than with cues of harmless predators.

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; Matthews, H. Damon

2015-11-16

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2-induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentrationmore » Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds.« less

Biological dosimetry to determine the UV radiation climate inside the MIR station and its role in vitamin D biosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rettberg, P.; Horneck, G.; Zittermann, A.; Heer, M.

1998-11-01

The vitamin D synthesis in the human skin, is absolutely dependent on UVB radiation. Natural UVB from sunlight is normally absent in the closed environment of a space station like MIR. Therefore it was necessary to investigate the UV radiation climate inside the station resulting from different lamps as well as from occasional solar irradiation behind a UV-transparent quartz window. Biofilms, biologically weighting and integrating UV dosimeters successfully applied on Earth (e.g. in Antarctica) and in space (D-2, Biopan I) were used to determine the biological effectiveness of the UV radiation climate at different locations in the space station. Biofilms were also used to determine the personal UV dose of an individual cosmonaut. These UV data were correlated with the concentration of vitamin D in the cosmonaut's blood and the dietary vitamin D intake. The results showed that the UV radiation climate inside the Mir station is not sufficient for an adequate supply of vitamin D, which should therefore be secured either by vitamin D supplementat and/or by the regular exposure to special UV lamps like those in sun-beds. The use of natural solar UV radiation through the quartz window for `sunbathing' is dangerous and should be avoided even for short exposure periods.

Potential Nematode Alarm Pheromone Induces Acute Avoidance in Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Zhou, Ying; Loeza-Cabrera, Mario; Liu, Zheng; Aleman-Meza, Boanerges; Nguyen, Julie K; Jung, Sang-Kyu; Choi, Yuna; Shou, Qingyao; Butcher, Rebecca A; Zhong, Weiwei

2017-07-01

It is crucial for animal survival to detect dangers such as predators. A good indicator of dangers is injury of conspecifics. Here we show that fluids released from injured conspecifics invoke acute avoidance in both free-living and parasitic nematodes. Caenorhabditis elegans avoids extracts from closely related nematode species but not fruit fly larvae. The worm extracts have no impact on animal lifespan, suggesting that the worm extract may function as an alarm instead of inflicting physical harm. Avoidance of the worm extract requires the function of a cGMP signaling pathway that includes the cGMP-gated channel TAX-2/TAX-4 in the amphid sensory neurons ASI and ASK. Genetic evidence indicates that the avoidance behavior is modulated by the neurotransmitters GABA and serotonin, two common targets of anxiolytic drugs. Together, these data support a model that nematodes use a nematode-specific alarm pheromone to detect conspecific injury. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

The dangerous sideslip of a stalled airplane and its prevention

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuchs, Richard; Schmidt, Wilhelm

1931-01-01

This investigation covers only that phase of airplane accidents which are the result of sideslip. We examine the circumstances under which this occurs, study the behavior of present-day airplane types (monoplane, conventional and staggered biplane) therein and endeavor to find a solution whereby this danger may be avoided.

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

PubMed Central

Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

2009-01-01

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO 2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO 2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surfacemore » air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO 2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO 2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.« less

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C.

2015-06-01

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Ask the climate question : adapting to climate change impacts in urban regions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

As the first responders to the impacts of climate change, local governments play a crucial role in implementing the actions and strategies that will reduce their communities vulnerability to the dangers of a changing climate. This type of action o...

The traffic climate in China: The mediating effect of traffic safety climate between personality and dangerous driving behavior.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Ge, Yan; Qu, Weina; Zhang, Kan; Sun, Xianghong

2018-04-01

Traffic safety climate is defined as road users' attitudes and perceptions of traffic in a specific context at a given point in time. The current study aimed to validate the Chinese version of the Traffic Climate Scale (TCS) and to explore its relation to drivers' personality and dangerous driving behavior. A sample of 413 drivers completed the Big Five Inventory (BFI), the Chinese version of the TCS, the Dula Dangerous Driving Index (DDDI) and a demographic questionnaire. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were performed to confirm a three-factor (external affective demands, internal requirements and functionality) solution of the TCS. The reliability and validity of the Chinese version of TCS were verified. More importantly, the results showed that the effect of personality on dangerous driving behavior was mediated by traffic climate. Specifically, the functionality of the TCS mediated the effect of neuroticism on negative cognitive/emotional driving and drunk driving, while openness had an indirect impact on aggressive driving, risky driving and drunk driving based on the internal requirements of the TCS. Additionally, agreeableness had a negative direct impact on four factors of the DDDI, while neuroticism had a positive direct impact on negative cognitive/emotional driving, drunk driving and risky driving. In conclusion, the Chinese version of the TCS will be useful to evaluate drivers' attitudes towards and perceptions of the requirements of traffic environment in which they participate and will also be valuable for comparing traffic cultures and environments in different countries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impressions of Danger Influence Impressions of People: An Evolutionary Perspective on Individual and Collective Cognition

PubMed Central

Schaller, Mark; Faulkner, Jason; Park, Justin H.; Neuberg, Steven L.; Kenrick, Douglas T.

2011-01-01

An evolutionary approach to social cognition yields novel hypotheses about the perception of people belonging to specific kinds of social categories. These implications are illustrated by empirical results linking the perceived threat of physical injury to stereotypical impressions of outgroups. We review a set of studies revealing several ways in which threat-connoting cues influence perceptions of ethnic outgroups and the individuals who belong to those outgroups. We also present new results that suggest additional implications of evolved danger-avoidance mechanisms on interpersonal communication and the persistence of cultural-level stereotypes about ethnic outgroups. The conceptual utility of an evolutionary approach is further illustrated by a parallel line of research linking the threat of disease to additional kinds of social perceptions and behaviors. Evolved danger-avoidance mechanisms appear to contribute in diverse ways to individual-level cognitive processes, as well as to culturally-shared collective beliefs. PMID:21874126

IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet disintegration and very large sea level rise (RFC5). Limiting warming to 1.5°C would reduce the risks for RFCs 1 and 2 from High to the Moderate-to-High transition.

Comparing Angular and Curved Shapes in Terms of Implicit Associations and Approach/Avoidance Responses.

PubMed

Palumbo, Letizia; Ruta, Nicole; Bertamini, Marco

2015-01-01

Most people prefer smoothly curved shapes over more angular shapes. We investigated the origin of this effect using abstract shapes and implicit measures of semantic association and preference. In Experiment 1 we used a multidimensional Implicit Association Test (IAT) to verify the strength of the association of curved and angular polygons with danger (safe vs. danger words), valence (positive vs. negative words) and gender (female vs. male names). Results showed that curved polygons were associated with safe and positive concepts and with female names, whereas angular polygons were associated with danger and negative concepts and with male names. Experiment 2 used a different implicit measure, which avoided any need to categorise the stimuli. Using a revised version of the Stimulus Response Compatibility (SRC) task we tested with a stick figure (i.e., the manikin) approach and avoidance reactions to curved and angular polygons. We found that RTs for approaching vs. avoiding angular polygons did not differ, even in the condition where the angles were more pronounced. By contrast participants were faster and more accurate when moving the manikin towards curved shapes. Experiment 2 suggests that preference for curvature cannot derive entirely from an association of angles with threat. We conclude that smoothly curved contours make these abstract shapes more pleasant. Further studies are needed to clarify the nature of such a preference.

Comparing Angular and Curved Shapes in Terms of Implicit Associations and Approach/Avoidance Responses

PubMed Central

Palumbo, Letizia; Ruta, Nicole; Bertamini, Marco

2015-01-01

Most people prefer smoothly curved shapes over more angular shapes. We investigated the origin of this effect using abstract shapes and implicit measures of semantic association and preference. In Experiment 1 we used a multidimensional Implicit Association Test (IAT) to verify the strength of the association of curved and angular polygons with danger (safe vs. danger words), valence (positive vs. negative words) and gender (female vs. male names). Results showed that curved polygons were associated with safe and positive concepts and with female names, whereas angular polygons were associated with danger and negative concepts and with male names. Experiment 2 used a different implicit measure, which avoided any need to categorise the stimuli. Using a revised version of the Stimulus Response Compatibility (SRC) task we tested with a stick figure (i.e., the manikin) approach and avoidance reactions to curved and angular polygons. We found that RTs for approaching vs. avoiding angular polygons did not differ, even in the condition where the angles were more pronounced. By contrast participants were faster and more accurate when moving the manikin towards curved shapes. Experiment 2 suggests that preference for curvature cannot derive entirely from an association of angles with threat. We conclude that smoothly curved contours make these abstract shapes more pleasant. Further studies are needed to clarify the nature of such a preference. PMID:26460610

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

PubMed

Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

2012-05-15

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen

PubMed Central

Pinder, Robert W.; Davidson, Eric A.; Goodale, Christine L.; Greaver, Tara L.; Herrick, Jeffrey D.; Liu, Lingli

2012-01-01

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N2O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at −290 to −510 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP100 basis, combustion contributes just −16 to −95 Tg CO2e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N2O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N2O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO2 emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change. PMID:22547815

Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction.

PubMed

Brander, K M

2010-11-01

Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been learned and that G. morhua will continue to be a mainstay of the human diet. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Climate change and the biosphere

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

Psychological Treatments to Avoid

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomason, Timothy C.

2010-01-01

Certain psychological treatments should be avoided, and a list of such treatments would provide valuable guidance for counselors, as well as potential clients. It is well established that some therapies are potentially dangerous, and some fringe therapies are highly unlikely to help clients beyond a placebo effect. This article provides an…

Remaining Safe and Avoiding Dangers Online: A Social Media Q&A with Kimberly Mitchell

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prevention Researcher, 2010

2010-01-01

The news media is often full of stories about the dangers of social media, including such concerns as cyberbullying and sexting. In this article, Kimberly Mitchell, a researcher noted for her experience on youth internet victimization, answers questions about the risks of social media and how we can keep youth safe online. Questions in this Q&A…

Fort Morgan and the Battle of Mobile Bay. Teaching with Historic Places.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blankenship, Blanton; Rambo, Bill

Under the light of dawn, Union Admiral David Farragut began his attack on Mobile Bay, Alabama. Aware of the danger near Fort Morgan (Alabama), Farragut ordered his captains to stay to the eastward of the easternmost buoy because it was understood there were obstructions between the buoys. The ironclad USS Tecumseh, unable to avoid the danger,…

Flexible attention deployment in threatening contexts: an instructed fear conditioning study.

PubMed

Shechner, Tomer; Pelc, Tatiana; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A; Bar-Haim, Yair

2012-10-01

Factors leading humans to shift attention away from danger cues remain poorly understood. Two laboratory experiments reported here show that context interacts with learning experiences to shape attention avoidance of mild danger cues. The first experiment exposed 18 participants to contextual threat of electric shock. Attention allocation to mild danger cues was then assessed with the dot-probe task. Results showed that contextual threat caused subjects to avert attention from danger cues. In the second experiment, 36 participants were conditioned to the same contextual threat used in Experiment 1. These subjects then were randomly assigned to either an experimental group, trained to shift attention toward danger cues, or a placebo group exposed to the same stimuli without the training component. As in Experiment 1, contextual threat again caused attention allocation away from danger in the control group. However, this did not occur in the experimental group. These experiments show that acute contextual threat and learning experiences interact to shape the deployment of attention away from danger cues.

Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

2014-12-01

Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of information about the tail risks.

Kamikazes: youth serving youth in a dangerous climate. Algeria.

PubMed

Gataa, R

1995-01-01

The Algerian Family Planning Association (FPA) launched its youth project in July 1993 in Oran. The first project of its kind in the Arab world, members call themselves Kamikazes in recognition of the hostile climate they face. The project's goal was to deal with social, cultural, and health problems. They also designed the project's logo, a cartoon booklet on the dangers of AIDS, and a T-shirt for members to wear. They based their activities in the local government-run information center. Between 15 and 25 years old, from a wide variety of social backgrounds, the young people drew up a list of common problems: drugs, alcohol, smoking, relationships with the opposite sex, abortion, contraception, sex education, AIDS, homosexuality, unemployment, the lack of clubs for young people, delinquency, lack of communication between parents and children, the repression of women, the lack of popular entertainment for young people, and the shortage of books. This project now is to be extended to Algiers and other cities. Over an 8-month period, the committee received instruction in contraception and combatting drug addition, participated in a workshop on empowerment and self esteem, and were trained in role-playing techniques. In their first 18 months of existence, the Kamikazes in Oran have succeeded in involving over 1000 of their peers. They have had particular success in reaching teenagers in secondary schools. One of the most valuable aspects of the project has been the sessions held with gynecologists and psychologists on sexual development, relationships between the sexes, and the avoidance of unwanted pregnancies, abortion, and sexually transmitted diseases. The success of the Oran Kamikaze project bodes well for the extension of the project to other parts of Algeria and indeed to some other countries of the Arab world.

Brain–immune interactions and the neural basis of disease-avoidant ingestive behaviour

PubMed Central

Pacheco-López, Gustavo; Bermúdez-Rattoni, Federico

2011-01-01

Neuro–immune interactions are widely manifested in animal physiology. Since immunity competes for energy with other physiological functions, it is subject to a circadian trade-off between other energy-demanding processes, such as neural activity, locomotion and thermoregulation. When immunity is challenged, this trade-off is tilted to an adaptive energy protecting and reallocation strategy that is identified as ‘sickness behaviour’. We review diverse disease-avoidant behaviours in the context of ingestion, indicating that several adaptive advantages have been acquired by animals (including humans) during phylogenetic evolution and by ontogenetic experiences: (i) preventing waste of energy by reducing appetite and consequently foraging/hunting (illness anorexia), (ii) avoiding unnecessary danger by promoting safe environments (preventing disease encounter by olfactory cues and illness potentiation neophobia), (iii) help fighting against pathogenic threats (hyperthermia/somnolence), and (iv) by associative learning evading specific foods or environments signalling danger (conditioned taste avoidance/aversion) and/or at the same time preparing the body to counteract by anticipatory immune responses (conditioning immunomodulation). The neurobiology behind disease-avoidant ingestive behaviours is reviewed with special emphasis on the body energy balance (intake versus expenditure) and an evolutionary psychology perspective. PMID:22042916

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

Implications of Climate Change for Children in Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanna, Rema; Oliva, Paulina

2016-01-01

Climate change may be particularly dangerous for children in developing countries. Even today, many developing countries experience a disproportionate share of extreme weather, and they are predicted to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change in the future. Moreover, developing countries often have limited social safety nets,…

The spectrum of medical errors: when patients sue

PubMed Central

Kels, Barry D; Grant-Kels, Jane M

2012-01-01

Inarguably medical errors constitute a serious, dangerous, and expensive problem for the twenty-first-century US health care system. This review examines the incidence, nature, and complexity of alleged medical negligence and medical malpractice. The authors hope this will constitute a road map to medical providers so that they can better understand the present climate and hopefully avoid the “Scylla and Charybdis” of medical errors and medical malpractice. Despite some documented success in reducing medical errors, adverse events and medical errors continue to represent an indelible stain upon the practice, reputation, and success of the US health care industry. In that regard, what may be required to successfully attack the unacceptably high severity and volume of medical errors is a locally directed and organized initiative sponsored by individual health care organizations that is coordinated, supported, and guided by state and federal governmental and nongovernmental agencies. PMID:22924008

Threat to the Planet: Dark and Bright Sides of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2008-12-01

. Earth's history reveals that climate is sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet's energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite the climate system's great inertia, climate changes are emerging above the 'noise' of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are 'in the pipeline'. There is a clear and present danger of the climate passing certain 'tipping points', climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks guarantee large relatively rapid changes with no additional climate forcing. The fact that we are close to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will minimize many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes, and fresh water shortages. Actions required to stabilize climate, including prompt phase-out of coal emissions, are defined well enough by our understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and fossil fuel reservoirs. These actions would also yield cleaner air and water, with ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and wildlife preservation. Yet the actions required to stabilize climate are not being pursued. Denial of climate change by the fossil fuel industry and reactionary governments has been replaced by 'greenwash'. The policies of even the 'greenest' nations are demonstrably impotent for the purpose of averting climate disasters. I conclude that inaction stems in large part from 'success' of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. The consequence is intergenerational inequity and injustice, affecting negatively the young and the unborn. The defense of prior generations, that they 'did not know', is no longer viable. Indeed, actions by fossil fuel interests that served to deceive the public about the dangers of human-made climate change raise questions of ethics and legal liabilities. Youth, at least those who are not too young or unborn, have recourse through democratic systems, but continued failure of the political process may cause increasing public protests.

Economic and policy implications of the cumulative carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Otto, A.; Hepburn, C.

2014-12-01

The importance of cumulative carbon emissions in determining long-term risks of climate change presents considerable challenges to policy makers. The traditional notion of "total CO2-equivalent emissions", which forms the backbone of agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the European Emissions Trading System, is fundamentally flawed. Measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants benefit the current generation, while measures to reduce long-lived climate pollutants benefit future generations, so there is no sense in which they can ever be considered equivalent. Debates over the correct metric used to compute CO2-equivalence are thus entirely moot: both long-lived and short-lived emissions will need to be addressed if all generations are to be protected from dangerous climate change. As far as long-lived climate pollutants are concerned, the latest IPCC report highlights the overwhelming importance of carbon capture and storage in determining the cost of meeting the goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to two degrees. We will show that this importance arises directly from the cumulative carbon budget and the role of CCS as the technology of last resort before economic activity needs to be restricted to meet ambitious climate targets. It highlights the need to increase the rate of CCS deployment by orders of magnitude if the option of avoiding two degrees is to be retained. The difficulty of achieving this speed of deployment through conventional incentives and carbon-pricing mechanisms suggests a need for a much more direct mandatory approach. Despite their theoretical economic inefficiency, the success of recent regulatory measures in achieving greenhouse gas emissions reductions in jurisdictions such as the United States suggests an extension of the regulatory approach could be a more effective and politically acceptable means of achieving adequately rapid CCS deployment than conventional carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.

Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, H. M.; Laapas, M.; Venäläinen, A.

2012-08-01

Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June-August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908-2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

The Century-Long Challenge of Global Carbon Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Socolow, R.

2002-05-01

The time scale of the global carbon management is a century, not a decade and not a millennium. A century is the ratio of 1000 billion metric tons of carbon [Gt(C)] to 10 Gt(C)/yr. 1000 Gt(C) is the future emissions that will lead to approximately a doubling of the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration, 280 ppm, assuming the total net ocean plus terrestrial sink remains at half the strength of this source - since 2.1 Gt (C) = 1 ppm, and the concentration today is already 370 ppm. Doubling is the most widely used boundary between acceptable and unacceptable Greenhouse-related environmental disruption, or, in the language of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the onset of "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." And 10 Gt(C)/yr is a conservative estimate of the average annual fossil-fuel carbon source over the century; it is now between 6 and 7 Gt(C). Conventional oil and gas are not sufficiently abundant to generate a serious Greenhouse problem on their own. Well before their cumulative carbon emissions reach 1000 Gt(C), both are expected to become non-competitive as a result of growing costs of access (costs related to resources being very deep underground, or below very deep water, or very remote, or very small.) But several times 1000 Gt(C) of coal resources will probably be competitive with non-fossil fuel alternatives, as will "unconventional" oil and gas resources, such as tar sands. The world will not be saved from a serious Greenhouse problem by fossil fuel depletion. There are four mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system. Fossil fuels can cease to dominate the global energy system well before the end of the century, yielding large market share to some combination of renewable energy and nuclear (fission and fusion) energy sources. Fossil fuels can continue to dominate, but most of the carbon in the century's fossil fuels can be prevented from reaching the atmosphere (fossil-carbon sequestration). Carbon can be removed directly from the air by biological or chemical processes. Or the climate system can become so well understood that effective compensating actions can be implemented. If human beings implement none of these strategies, we will have chosen, in effect, to adapt to climate change. Not unlikely will be a mix of all four mitigation strategies plus adaptation. In recent years, as the intrinsic complexity and monumental scale of global carbon management has become better appreciated, new coalitions supportive of policies intended to mitigate climate change have emerged.

Sexual murderers' implicit theories.

PubMed

Beech, Anthony; Fisher, Dawn; Ward, Tony

2005-11-01

Interviews with 28 sexual murderers were subjected to grounded theory analysis. Five implicit theories (ITs) were identified: dangerous world, male sex drive is uncontrollable, entitlement, women as sexual objects, and women as unknowable. These ITs were found to be identical to those identified in the literature as being present in rapists. The presence of dangerous world and male sex drive is uncontrollable were present, or absent, such that three groups could be identified: (a) dangerous world plus male sex drive is uncontrollable; (b) dangerous world, in the absence of male sex drive is uncontrollable; (c) male sex drive is uncontrollable in the absence of dangerous world. These three groups were found to differ in motivation: (a) were motivated by urges to rape and murder; (b) were motivated by grievance, resentment and/or anger toward women; (c) were motivated to sexually offend but were prepared to kill to avoid detection, or secure compliance.

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

PubMed

Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

2013-06-01

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Natural wind variability triggered drop in German redispatch volume and costs from 2015 to 2016.

PubMed

Wohland, Jan; Reyers, Mark; Märker, Carolin; Witthaut, Dirk

2018-01-01

Avoiding dangerous climate change necessitates the decarbonization of electricity systems within the next few decades. In Germany, this decarbonization is based on an increased exploitation of variable renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar power. While system security has remained constantly high, the integration of renewables causes additional costs. In 2015, the costs of grid management saw an all time high of about € 1 billion. Despite the addition of renewable capacity, these costs dropped substantially in 2016. We thus investigate the effect of natural climate variability on grid management costs in this study. We show that the decline is triggered by natural wind variability focusing on redispatch as a main cost driver. In particular, we find that 2016 was a weak year in terms of wind generation averages and the occurrence of westerly circulation weather types. Moreover, we show that a simple model based on the wind generation time series is skillful in detecting redispatch events on timescales of weeks and beyond. As a consequence, alterations in annual redispatch costs in the order of hundreds of millions of euros need to be understood and communicated as a normal feature of the current system due to natural wind variability.

A study of forest fire danger district division in Lushan Mountain based on RS and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Jinxiang; Huang, Shu-E.; Zhong, Anjian; Zhu, Biqin; Ye, Qing; Sun, Lijun

2009-09-01

The study selected 9 factors, average maximum temperature, average temperature, average precipitation, average the longest days of continuous drought and average wind speed during fire prevention period, vegetation type, altitude, slope and aspect as the index of forest fire danger district division, which has taken the features of Lushan Mountain's forest fire history into consideration, then assigned subjective weights to each factor according to their sensitivity to fire or their fire-inducing capability. By remote sensing and GIS, vegetation information layer were gotten from Landsat TM image and DEM with a scale of 1:50000 was abstracted from the digital scanned relief map. Topography info. (elevation, slope, aspect) layers could be gotten after that. A climate resource databank that contained the data from the stations of Lushan Mountain and other nearby 7 stations was built up and extrapolated through the way of grid extrapolation in order to make the distribution map of climate resource. Finally synthetical district division maps were made by weighing and integrating all the single factor special layers,and the study area were divided into three forest fire danger district, include special fire danger district, I-fire danger district and II-fire danger district. It could be used as a basis for developing a forest fire prevention system, preparing the annual investment plan, allocating reasonably the investment of fire prevention, developing the program of forest fire prevention and handle, setting up forest fire brigade, leaders' decisions on forest fire prevention work.

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Evaluating fire danger in Brazilian biomes: present and future patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Patrícia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Libonati, Renata

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on fire occurrence and activity, particularly in Brazil, a region known to be fire-prone [1]. The Brazilian savanna, commonly referred to as cerrado, is a fire-adapted biome covering more than 20% of the country's total area. It presents the highest numbers of fire events, making it particularly susceptible to changes in climate. It is thus essential to understand the present fire regimes in Brazilian biomes, in order to better evaluate future patterns. The CPTEC/INPE, the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research at the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research developed a fire danger index based on the occurrence of hundreds of thousands of fire events in the main Brazilian biomes [2]: the Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI). This index indicates the predisposition of vegetation to be burned on a given day, for given climate conditions preceding that day. It relies on daily values of air temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation and vegetation cover. In this study we aim to access the capability of the MFDI to accurately replicate present fire conditions for different biomes, with a special focus on cerrado. To this end, we assess the link between the MFDI as calculated by three different reanalysis (ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and MERRA-2) and the observed burned area. We further calculate the validated MFDI using a regional climate model, the RCA4 as forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX, to understand the ability of the model to characterize present fire danger. Finally, the need to calibrate the model to better characterize future fire danger was also evaluated. This work was developed within the framework of the Brazilian Fire-Land-Atmosphere System (BrFLAS) Project financed by the Portuguese and Brazilian science foundations, FCT and FAPESP (project references FAPESP/1389/2014 and 2014/20042-2). [1] KRAWCHUK, M.A.; MORITZ, M.A.; PARISIEN, M.A.; VAN DORN, J.; HAYHOE, K. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLOS ONE, v. 4, n. 4, e5102, 2009. [2] SETZER, A.W.; SISMANOGLU, R.A. Risco de Fogo: Metodologia do Cálculo - Descrição sucinta da Versão 9. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 2012. Available at: . Accessed on: 10 jan. 2017.

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Climate Change Anticipation on Supporting Capacity of Fishing Environment in the Coastal Area of Tanjungmas Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Indah Kurniasih Wahyu; Hadi, Sudharto P.

2018-02-01

Climate change is no longer a debate about its existence but already a problem shared between communities, between agencies, between countries even global for handling serious because so many aspects of life and the environment is affected, especially for communities in coastal environments This climate change is a threat to the Earth, because it can affect all aspects of life and will damage the balance of life of Earth Climate change happens slowly in a fairly long period of time and it is a change that is hard to avoid. These Phenomena will give effect to the various facets of life. Semarang as areas located to Java and bordering the Java Sea are at high risk exposed to the impacts of climate change Also not a few residents of the city of Semarang who settled in the northern part of the city of Semarang and also have a livelihood as farmers/peasants and fishermen Many industrial centers or attractions that are prone to impacted by climate change. Thus, the anticipation of climate change on resources support neighborhood of fishermen in the coastal area of Tanjungmas Semarang interesting for further review. This study aims to find out more the influence of climate change on the environment of fishing identify potential danger due to the impacts of climate change on coastal areas of Tanjungmas Semarang The research was conducted through surveys, interviews and field observation without a list of questions to obtain primary and secondary data As for the analysis undertaken, namely the analysis of climate change on the coastal environment, the analysis of productivity of fishermen as well as the analysis of the likelihood of disaster risk at the coast due to climate change. From the results of the study the occurrence of sea rise as one of the indicators of climate change in the coastal City of Semarang to reach 0.8 mm/year and average soil degradation that ranged between 5 - 12 cm/year cause most coastal communities as well as the social life of the agricultural areas of its economy relies on the resources becoming increasingly erratic.

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Nazarenko, Larissa

2004-01-13

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

An assessment of climate and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies during the 1910 fire season

Treesearch

Charles W. McHugh; Mark A. Finney; Larry S. Bradshaw

2010-01-01

The 1910 fires of western Montana and northern Idaho have received much publicity in the popular media but little scientific attention regarding the factors that contribute to fire behavior and fire danger. Here we present information surrounding the weather, and reconstructed measures of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Energy...

High cholesterol - children

MedlinePlus

... and milk products Avoid sugary drinks such as soda and flavored fruit drinks Eat lean meat and ... day. Other steps include teaching children about the dangers of tobacco use. Make your home a smoke- ...

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

PubMed Central

Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Holden, Zachary A.; Brown, Timothy J.; Williamson, Grant J.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2015-01-01

Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate. PMID:26172867

Influence of Emotionally Charged Information on Category-Based Induction

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jennifer; Murphy, Gregory L.

2013-01-01

Categories help us make predictions, or inductions, about new objects. However, we cannot always be certain that a novel object belongs to the category we are using to make predictions. In such cases, people should use multiple categories to make inductions. Past research finds that people often use only the most likely category to make inductions, even if it is not certain. In two experiments, subjects read stories and answered questions about items whose categorization was uncertain. In Experiment 1, the less likely category was either emotionally neutral or dangerous (emotionally charged or likely to pose a threat). Subjects used multiple categories in induction when one of the categories was dangerous but not when they were all neutral. In Experiment 2, the most likely category was dangerous. Here, people used multiple categories, but there was also an effect of avoidance, in which people denied that dangerous categories were the most likely. The attention-grabbing power of dangerous categories may be balanced by a higher-level strategy to reject them. PMID:23372700

Food security and climate change: a perfect storm needing an integrated solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholes, R. J.

2011-12-01

The challenges of feeding the world and keeping it within a comfortable climate range loom large in public and policy debates, but to date have mostly been treated as independent issues. In reality they are closely intertwined, and any actions taken to manage one will have to consider the consequences for the other. It is well-understood that agriculture is climatically-sensitive. One of the thresholds defining 'dangerous' climate change is the limit of tolerance of major food production systems to high temperatures, droughts, floods, severe weather events and tropospheric ozone. Less widely-appreciated is the substantial effect which the food system has on climate forcing - currently around a third of the effect, once land use change is included. The size of the effect is highly influenced by land use and food system practices and policies. The remarkable gains in agricultural production since the 1960s and food surpluses in the developed world have masked the severe nutritional inadequacies already faced by a fifth of the global population. For a range of reasons, recent increases in food production have not matched the increasing demand brought about by population growth, changing diets and non-food uses for agricultural products. The result is rising food commodity prices and increasing food insecurity in many parts of the world. In the absence of decisive interventions, these trends are bound to worsen as the global population rises to a projected 9-10 billion people, per capita wealth rises, and water and land resources come under increasing pressure. The imperatives of ensuring food security are likely to materialize earlier than those related to avoiding climate disasters, which could result in actions making the later transgression of the safe climate limits inevitable. There is a narrow trajectory, involving technological, institutional, economic and values-based changes, that could navigate between two equally-unpleasant outcomes.

Helping Athletes Avoid Hazardous Weight Control Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janz, Kathleen

1988-01-01

This article addresses dangerous dieting techniques used by athletes and provides coaches and teachers specific strategies to aid in preventing eating-related disorders among athletes. Symptoms of anorexia and of bulimia are described. (JL)

46 CFR 190.20-50 - Heating and cooling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... the space. (b) Radiators and other heating apparatus must be so placed and shielded, where necessary, to avoid risk of fire, danger or discomfort to the occupants. Pipes leading to radiators or heating...

Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy

Treesearch

Adriana Keeting; John Handmer

2013-01-01

South-eastern Australia is one of the most fire prone environments on earth. Devastating fires in February 2009 appear to have been off the charts climatically and economically, they led to a new category of fire danger aptly called 'catastrophic'. Almost all wildfire losses have been associated with these extreme conditions and climate change will see an...

[Doctors and the benefits and dangers of social networks].

PubMed

Tisseron, Serge

2015-05-13

Social networks have many different uses. Most young people use them for experimentation and innovation. Social networks help young people get familiar with the digital world, and develop themselves in interrelation with their peers. But social networks can also be used to avoid relationships in the real world, or to practice different forms of harassment. A specific danger lies in forgetting that a great number of people can have access to personal information posted online. Doctors should be particularly aware of this issue.

The Climate Change--Social Change Relationship.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, David

1992-01-01

Argues that the scientific community cannot evoke the desired response from the general community concerning environmental problems, such as climate change, simply by warning the community of its dangers. Discusses the need for new meaning systems arising out of new ways of relating and communicating with each other about our ecology. (MDH)

Water Safety (Recreational)

MedlinePlus

Playing in the water - whether swimming, boating or diving - can be fun. It can also be dangerous, especially for children. Being safe can ... injuries and drowning. To stay safe in the water Avoid alcohol when swimming or boating Wear a ...

Drug Interactions: What You Should Know

MedlinePlus

... driving a car or operating machinery dangerous. Drug-food/beverage interactions result from drugs reacting with foods or ... it with other drugs? Should I avoid certain foods, beverages or other products? What are possible drug interaction ...

Inappropriate Alarm Rates and Driver Annoyance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-02-01

Future in-vehicle crash avoidance warning systems will inevitably deliver : inappropriate alarms from time to time, caused for example, by situations where : algorithms have correctly identified an object but pose no threat or danger to : the driver....

New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

PubMed

Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

2017-06-20

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

Natural wind variability triggered drop in German redispatch volume and costs from 2015 to 2016

PubMed Central

Reyers, Mark; Märker, Carolin; Witthaut, Dirk

2018-01-01

Avoiding dangerous climate change necessitates the decarbonization of electricity systems within the next few decades. In Germany, this decarbonization is based on an increased exploitation of variable renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar power. While system security has remained constantly high, the integration of renewables causes additional costs. In 2015, the costs of grid management saw an all time high of about € 1 billion. Despite the addition of renewable capacity, these costs dropped substantially in 2016. We thus investigate the effect of natural climate variability on grid management costs in this study. We show that the decline is triggered by natural wind variability focusing on redispatch as a main cost driver. In particular, we find that 2016 was a weak year in terms of wind generation averages and the occurrence of westerly circulation weather types. Moreover, we show that a simple model based on the wind generation time series is skillful in detecting redispatch events on timescales of weeks and beyond. As a consequence, alterations in annual redispatch costs in the order of hundreds of millions of euros need to be understood and communicated as a normal feature of the current system due to natural wind variability. PMID:29329349

Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

2008-11-13

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.

The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: The role of temporal scale

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; John T. Abatzoglou; Isaac C. Grenfell; Anna E. Klene; Faith Ann Heinsch

2013-01-01

The relationship between large fire occurrence and drought has important implications for fire prediction under current and future climates. This study’s primary objective was to evaluate correlations between drought and fire-danger- rating indices representing short- and long-term drought, to determine which had the strongest relationships with large fire occurrence...

Motivational climate, goal orientation, perceived sport ability, and enjoyment within Finnish junior ice hockey players.

PubMed

Jaakkola, T; Ntoumanis, N; Liukkonen, J

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relations among situational motivational climate, dispositional approach and avoidance achievement goals, perceived sport ability, and enjoyment in Finnish male junior ice hockey players. The sample comprised 265 junior B-level male players with a mean age of 17.03 years (SD = 0.63). Players filled questionnaires tapping their perceptions of coach motivational climate, achievement goals, perceived sport ability, and enjoyment. For the statistical analysis, players were divided into high and low perceived sport ability groups. Multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed an indirect path from task-involving motivational climate via task-approach goal to enjoyment. Additionally, SEM demonstrated four other direct associations, which existed in both perceived ability groups: from ego-involving motivational climate to ego-approach and ego-avoidance goals; from ego-approach goal to ego-avoidance goal; and from task-avoidance goal to ego-avoidance goal. Additionally, in the high perceived sport ability group, there was an association from task-involving motivational climate to enjoyment. The results of this study reveal that motivational climate emphasizing effort, personal development and improvement, and achievement goal mastering tasks are significant elements of enjoyment in junior ice hockey. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Citizenship for a Changing Global Climate: Learning from New Zealand and Norway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Bronwyn; Selboe, Elin; Plew, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Young citizens under the age of 25?years make up just under half of the world's population. Globally, they face new, interrelated problems of dangerous environmental change, including increasing incidence of severe storms associated with a changing climate, and related new threats to human security. Addressing the complex challenge of climate…

A proposal to rationalize within-species plant virus nomenclature: benefits and implications of inaction.

PubMed

Jones, Roger A C; Kehoe, Monica A

2016-07-01

Current approaches used to name within-species, plant virus phylogenetic groups are often misleading and illogical. They involve names based on biological properties, sequence differences and geographical, country or place-association designations, or any combination of these. This type of nomenclature is becoming increasingly unsustainable as numbers of sequences of the same virus from new host species and different parts of the world increase. Moreover, this increase is accelerating as world trade and agriculture expand, and climate change progresses. Serious consequences for virus research and disease management might arise from incorrect assumptions made when current within-species phylogenetic group names incorrectly identify properties of group members. This could result in development of molecular tools that incorrectly target dangerous virus strains, potentially leading to unjustified impediments to international trade or failure to prevent such strains being introduced to countries, regions or continents formerly free of them. Dangerous strains might be missed or misdiagnosed by diagnostic laboratories and monitoring programs, and new cultivars with incorrect strain-specific resistances released. Incorrect deductions are possible during phylogenetic analysis of plant virus sequences and errors from strain misidentification during molecular and biological virus research activities. A nomenclature system for within-species plant virus phylogenetic group names is needed which avoids such problems. We suggest replacing all other naming approaches with Latinized numerals, restricting biologically based names only to biological strains and removing geographically based names altogether. Our recommendations have implications for biosecurity authorities, diagnostic laboratories, disease-management programs, plant breeders and researchers.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PubMed

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Mechanisms of social avoidance learning can explain the emergence of adaptive and arbitrary behavioral traditions in humans.

PubMed

Lindström, Björn; Olsson, Andreas

2015-06-01

Many nonhuman animals preferentially copy the actions of others when the environment contains predation risk or other types of danger. In humans, the role of social learning in avoidance of danger is still unknown, despite the fundamental importance of social learning for complex social behaviors. Critically, many social behaviors, such as cooperation and adherence to religious taboos, are maintained by threat of punishment. However, the psychological mechanisms allowing threat of punishment to generate such behaviors, even when actual punishment is rare or absent, are largely unknown. To address this, we used both computer simulations and behavioral experiments. First, we constructed a model where simulated agents interacted under threat of punishment and showed that mechanisms' (a) tendency to copy the actions of others through social learning, together with (b) the rewarding properties of avoiding a threatening punishment, could explain the emergence, maintenance, and transmission of large-scale behavioral traditions, both when punishment is common and when it is rare or nonexistent. To provide empirical support for our model, including the 2 mechanisms, we conducted 4 experiments, showing that humans, if threatened with punishment, are exceptionally prone to copy and transmit the behavior observed in others. Our results show that humans, similar to many nonhuman animals, use social learning if the environment is perceived as dangerous. We provide a novel psychological and computational basis for a range of human behaviors characterized by the threat of punishment, such as the adherence to cultural norms and religious taboos. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Challenges for the geosciences after the Paris agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutti, R.; Sedlacek, J.; Rogelj, J.; Fischer, E. M.

2016-12-01

The world's governments agreed to limit global mean temperature change to below 2 °C or 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels in Paris. These warming targets are often perceived by the public as a universally accepted goal, identified by scientists as a safe limit that avoids dangerous climate change. This perception is incorrect: no scientific assessment has clearly justified or defended 2°C as a safe level of warming, and indeed, this is not a problem that science alone can address. We argue that global temperature is the best climate target quantity, but it is unclear what level can be considered safe. However, irrespective of the target, the concept of cumulative carbon implies that substantial and sustained emission reductions are required to limit climate change to temperature levels that are currently being considered safe. The Paris agreement poses many open questions to the geoscience community: the impacts of a temperature overshoot, the limits of negative emissions, and the role of radiative forcings other than carbon dioxide need to be better understood. Treating uncertainties, incorporating risk, and linking local impacts and development objectives to global climate goals also remain major open issues that need to be tackled in a continued dialogue with science communities. The negotiations up to Paris and the 2 °C target have been useful for anchoring discussions, but ineffective in triggering the required emission reductions; the debates on considering different targets are strongly at odds with the current real-world level of action. These debates are moot, however, as the decisions that need to be taken now to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C are very similar. We need to agree how to start, not where to end mitigation.

The Fossil Fuel Divestment Movement: An Ethical Dilemma for the Geosciences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, C. H.; Kammen, D. M.

2014-12-01

For over 200 years, fossil fuels have been the basis for an industrial revolution that has delivered a level of prosperity to modern society unimaginable during the previous 5000 years of human civilization. However, society's dependence on fossil fuels is coming to an end for two reasons. The first reason is because our fossil fuel reserves are running out, oil in this century, natural gas during the next century, and coal a few centuries later. The second reason is because fossil fuels are having a devastating impact on the habitability of our planet, disrupting our climate system and acidifying our oceans. So the question is not whether we will discontinue using fossil fuels, but rather whether we will stop using them before they do irreparable damage to the Earth's life-support systems. Within our geoscience community, climate scientists have determined that a majority of existing fossil fuel reserves must remain unburned if dangerous climate change and ocean acidification are to be avoided. In contrast, Exxon-Mobil, Shell, and other members of the fossil fuel industry are pursuing a business model that assumes all of their reserves will be burned and will not become stranded assets. Since the geosciences have had a long and mutually beneficial relationship with the fossil fuel industry, this inherent conflict between climate science and industrial interests presents an ethical dilemma for many geoscientists. This conflict is further heightened by the fossil fuel divestment movement, which is underway at over 400 college and university campuses around the world. This presentation will explore some of the ethical and financial issues being raised by the divestment movement from a geoscientist's perspective.

46 CFR 151.50-40 - Additional requirements for carbon disulfide (carbon bisulfide) and ethyl ether.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... submerged type designed to avoid liquid pressure against the shaft gland and are suitable for use with the... SECURITY (CONTINUED) CERTAIN BULK DANGEROUS CARGOES BARGES CARRYING BULK LIQUID HAZARDOUS MATERIAL CARGOES...

46 CFR 151.50-40 - Additional requirements for carbon disulfide (carbon bisulfide) and ethyl ether.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... submerged type designed to avoid liquid pressure against the shaft gland and are suitable for use with the... SECURITY (CONTINUED) CERTAIN BULK DANGEROUS CARGOES BARGES CARRYING BULK LIQUID HAZARDOUS MATERIAL CARGOES...

46 CFR 151.50-40 - Additional requirements for carbon disulfide (carbon bisulfide) and ethyl ether.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... submerged type designed to avoid liquid pressure against the shaft gland and are suitable for use with the... SECURITY (CONTINUED) CERTAIN BULK DANGEROUS CARGOES BARGES CARRYING BULK LIQUID HAZARDOUS MATERIAL CARGOES...

46 CFR 151.50-40 - Additional requirements for carbon disulfide (carbon bisulfide) and ethyl ether.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... submerged type designed to avoid liquid pressure against the shaft gland and are suitable for use with the... SECURITY (CONTINUED) CERTAIN BULK DANGEROUS CARGOES BARGES CARRYING BULK LIQUID HAZARDOUS MATERIAL CARGOES...

Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

2011-01-13

The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

Seasonal predictions for wildland fire severity

Treesearch

Shyh-Chin Chen; Haiganoush Preisler; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; John O. Roads

2009-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices deduced from the monthly to seasonal predictions of a meteorological climate model at 50-km grid space from January 1998 through December 2003 were used in conjunction with a probability model to predict the expected number of fire occurrences and large fires over the U.S. West. The short-term climate forecasts are...

Influence of altitude and aspect on daily variations in factors of forest fire danger

Treesearch

G. Lloyd. Hayes

1941-01-01

Altitude, in broad subdivisions, exerts recognized and well-understood effects on climate. Aspect further modifies the altitudinal influence. Many publications have dealt with the interrelations of these geographic factors with climate and life zones or have discussed variations of individual weather elements as influenced by local altitude and aspect differences and...

When will we reach 1.5 of global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.

2017-12-01

Recent global temperature trends indicate that we may be rapidly approaching 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, rigorous estimates of when this target will be breached are rare, and are highly sensitive to small errors in observed and model-simulated historical warming, as well as widely-varying estimates of the allowable emissions for 1.5°C. Here, I present a proposed method to estimate the time remaining to 1.5°C using a new estimate of human-attributable warming, updated CO2 emissions trends, and the latest estimates of the 1.5°C carbon budget. The resulting calculation suggests that a continuation of recent CO2 emission trends would take us past 1.5°C in 2033, a little less than 16 years from now. Uncertainties in this calculation remain large, reflecting both fundamental scientific uncertainties associated with the climate response to emissions, as well as uncertainties associated with human mitigation decisions and their effect on future CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is nevertheless important to provide a robust and widely-accepted best estimate of the time remaining before we breach the climate targets that have been adopted in the Paris climate agreement, so as to clearly communicate our scientific understanding to policy makers and the general public. To this end, in an effort to visualize and track our progress towards these target, we have develop an online and projectable climate clock, which shows a real-time countdown of the time remaining to 1.5 and 2°C of global warming (see www.climateclock.net). This clock will be updated annually in light of the most recent emissions and global temperature data, and accounting for improved estimates of the remaining carbon budget associated with these climate targets. As countries around the world move forward with climate mitigation efforts, this climate clock will be able to clearly mark our progress towards the objective of adding time to the countdown so as to ultimately avoid breaching these dangerous climate thresholds.

Willingness to pay for avoiding infection of climate change diseases, in particular tsutsugamushi disease.

PubMed

Rhee, Hae-Chun

2013-02-01

As the prevalence of tsutsugamushi disease has tripled over the past decade to affect 8307 people in October 2012, this study is conducted to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid infection of tsutsugamushi disease in order to analyze the loss of value caused by climate change diseases. The double-bounded dichotomous choice of contingent valuation method was used to estimate the WTP to avoid infection of tsutsugamushi disease, through surveys conducted in the patient group (n = 120) and the control group (n = 240). More young people in the family, higher level of awareness of risks caused by climate change, more male members (as opposed to female), higher income, lower suggested bid, and greater WTP, is better positioned to avoid infection of disease. The mean of the amount of WTP has been estimated to be 3689 Kwon per month. As people have become increasingly aware of climate change diseases, WTP to avoid infection of tsutsugamushi disease has increased accordingly. The implicit loss of value due to climate change diseases is becoming increasingly higher. Therefore, there should be stronger and more aggressive promotional activities to prevent people from being infected with tsutsugamushi disease and to build a healthier society free from climate change diseases.

[Effect of previous experience in reacting to a danger signal on "open field" behavior in the rat].

PubMed

Poltyreva, T E; Petrov, E S

1983-01-01

Modification of rats behaviour in an "hopen field" test was investigated, induced by an acoustic stimulus, previously subjected to conditioning in a shuttle chamber in experiments with possibility and impossibility of avoidance from electrical shock. It has been established that presentation of a stimulus having the meaning of a danger signal, in a new situation, significantly suppresses investigating behaviour of rats, whereas the stimulus which had not been subjected to conditioning exerts no marked effect on behaviour. The greatest suppression was observed in rats with "learned helplessness". This fact suggests that the degree of suppression of the behaviour in an open field in response to a danger signal, depends on the animal's previous experience in reacting to this signal.

Imidacloprid Alters Foraging and Decreases Bee Avoidance of Predators

PubMed Central

Tan, Ken; Chen, Weiwen; Dong, Shihao; Liu, Xiwen; Wang, Yuchong; Nieh, James C.

2014-01-01

Concern is growing over the effects of neonicotinoid pesticides, which can impair honey bee cognition. We provide the first demonstration that sublethal concentrations of imidacloprid can harm honey bee decision-making about danger by significantly increasing the probability of a bee visiting a dangerous food source. Apis cerana is a native bee that is an important pollinator of agricultural crops and native plants in Asia. When foraging on nectar containing 40 µg/L (34 ppb) imidacloprid, honey bees (Apis cerana) showed no aversion to a feeder with a hornet predator, and 1.8 fold more bees chose the dangerous feeder as compared to control bees. Control bees exhibited significant predator avoidance. We also give the first evidence that foraging by A. cerana workers can be inhibited by sublethal concentrations of the pesticide, imidacloprid, which is widely used in Asia. Compared to bees collecting uncontaminated nectar, 23% fewer foragers returned to collect the nectar with 40 µg/L imidacloprid. Bees that did return respectively collected 46% and 63% less nectar containing 20 µg/L and 40 µg/L imidacloprid. These results suggest that the effects of neonicotinoids on honey bee decision-making and other advanced cognitive functions should be explored. Moreover, research should extend beyond the classic model, the European honey bee (A. mellifera), to other important bee species. PMID:25025334

Synthesis of high molecular weight PEO using non-metal initiators

DOEpatents

Yang, Jin; Sivanandan, Kulandaivelu; Pistorino, Jonathan; Eitouni, Hany Basam

2015-05-19

A new synthetic method to prepare high molecular weight poly(ethylene oxide) with a very narrow molecular weight distribution (PDI<1.5) is described. The method involves a metal free initiator system, thus avoiding dangerous, flammable organometallic compounds.

30 CFR 701.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., animal stocking requirements, scheduling of activities and design of sedimentation ponds in accordance... practice giving rise to the peril, would avoid exposure to the danger during the time necessary for... establishments. (g) Recreation. Land used for public or private leisure-time activities, including developed...

30 CFR 701.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., animal stocking requirements, scheduling of activities and design of sedimentation ponds in accordance... practice giving rise to the peril, would avoid exposure to the danger during the time necessary for... establishments. (g) Recreation. Land used for public or private leisure-time activities, including developed...

30 CFR 701.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., animal stocking requirements, scheduling of activities and design of sedimentation ponds in accordance... practice giving rise to the peril, would avoid exposure to the danger during the time necessary for... establishments. (g) Recreation. Land used for public or private leisure-time activities, including developed...

30 CFR 701.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., animal stocking requirements, scheduling of activities and design of sedimentation ponds in accordance... practice giving rise to the peril, would avoid exposure to the danger during the time necessary for... establishments. (g) Recreation. Land used for public or private leisure-time activities, including developed...

30 CFR 701.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., animal stocking requirements, scheduling of activities and design of sedimentation ponds in accordance... practice giving rise to the peril, would avoid exposure to the danger during the time necessary for... establishments. (g) Recreation. Land used for public or private leisure-time activities, including developed...

Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

2016-04-01

In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

The Effect of Negative School Climate on Academic Outcomes for LGBT Youth and the Role of In-School Supports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosciw, Joseph G.; Palmer, Neal A.; Kull, Ryan M.; Greytak, Emily A.

2013-01-01

For many lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) youth, intolerance and prejudice make school a hostile and dangerous place. This study examined simultaneously the effects of a negative school climate on achievement and the role that school-based supports--safe school policies, supportive school personnel, and gay-straight alliance (GSA)…

Fertility, immigration, and the fight against climate change.

PubMed

Earl, Jake; Hickey, Colin; Rieder, Travis N

2017-10-01

Several philosophers have recently argued that policies aimed at reducing human fertility are a practical and morally justifiable way to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change. There is a powerful objection to such "population engineering" proposals: even if drastic fertility reductions are needed to prevent dangerous climate change, implementing those reductions would wreak havoc on the global economy, which would seriously undermine international antipoverty efforts. In this article, we articulate this economic objection to population engineering and show how it fails. We argue, first, that the economic objection paints an inaccurate picture of the complicated relationship between demographic change and economic growth, and second, that any untoward economic effects of fertility reduction can be mitigated with additional policies. Specifically, we argue that supplementing fertility reduction with policies that facilitate the emigration of younger people from developing nations to developed nations could allow for both global reductions in GHG emissions and continued economic stability. Further, we show that moral arguments against such unprecedented increases in immigration are unsuccessful. We conclude that population engineering is a practical and morally justifiable tool for addressing the twin evils of climate change and global poverty. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Language Contact Means Language Conflict.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelde, Peter H.

1987-01-01

Describes the characteristics of language conflict and examines the areas of emphasis in the literature, including multilingualism and linguistic identity, glottophagia and minority/majority relations, the danger of reliance on language censuses, conflict resolution/avoidance, and the importance of ecolinguistics in conflict description and for…

Response to Agencywide Crisis: A Model for Administrative Action.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alwon, Floyd J.

1980-01-01

Guidelines are suggested whereby mental health agency administrators can promote organizational growth and avoid dangers during an agency crisis. Emphasis is placed on the administrator's comprehension of leadership styles and task organization. Typical staff reactions to agency crises are described. (Author/DB)

Launchers and Improved Components for 4.5 in. Rockets

DTIC Science & Technology

1946-02-09

Engagements 132 Loading 133 Release 133 "Dig In" Characteristic 133 Cushioning 134 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Conttd) PAGE *Overshooting" in Loading 134 Effect on... loaded for a cold climate and used in a hot climate without removing some of the propellent powder there will be danger of its bursting. Conversely, if...it is loaded for use in a hot climate, there vwill not be sufficient powder for firing at low temperature. A regulating pressure device that would

Harrison Ford Tapes Climate Change Show at Ames (Reporter Package)

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-11

Hollywood legend Harrison Ford made a special visit to NASA's Ames Research Center to shoot an episode for a new documentary series about climate change called 'Years of Living Dangerously.' After being greeted by Center Director Pete Worden, Ford was filmed meeting with NASA climate scientists and discussed global temperature prediction data processed using one of the world's fastest supercomputers at Ames. Later he flew in the co-pilot seat in a jet used to gather data for NASA air quality studies.

Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2006-12-01

So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public in the ozone depletion and global warming crises. Scientists in America are further challenged by a decline in public science education, a perceived gap between science and religion, increasing politicization of public affairs offices in the government, and accumulation of power by a unitary executive. First order communication tasks are illustrated by a need for improved exchange and understanding, among scientists as well as with the public, of fundamental climate facts: (1) additional global warming exceeding 1C will yield large climate effects, (2) paleoclimate changes contain quantitatively specific information about climate sensitivity that is not widely appreciated, (3) carbon cycle facts, such as the substantial portion of carbon dioxide emissions that will remain in the air "forever", for practical purposes, (4) fossil fuel facts such as the dominant role of coal and unconventional fuels in all business-as-usual scenarios for future energy sources. The facts graphically illustrate the need for prompt actions to avoid disastrous climate change, yet they also reveal the feasibility of a course that minimizes global warming and yields other benefits. Perhaps the greatest challenge is posed by an inappropriate casting of the topic as a dichotomy between those who deny that there is a global warming problem and those who either are exceedingly pessimistic about the prospects for minimizing climate change or believe that solutions would be very expensive. Sensible evaluation of the situation, in my opinion, suggests a strategy for dealing with global warming that is not costly and has many subsidiary benefits, but it does require leadership. Practical difficulties in communicating this story will be illustrated with some personal experiences.

T cell exhaustion: from pathophysiological basics to tumor immunotherapy.

PubMed

Catakovic, Kemal; Klieser, Eckhard; Neureiter, Daniel; Geisberger, Roland

2017-01-05

The immune system is capable of distinguishing between danger- and non-danger signals, thus inducing either an appropriate immune response against pathogens and cancer or inducing self-tolerance to avoid autoimmunity and immunopathology. One of the mechanisms that have evolved to prevent destruction by the immune system, is to functionally silence effector T cells, termed T cell exhaustion, which is also exploited by viruses and cancers for immune escape In this review, we discuss some of the phenotypic markers associated with T cell exhaustion and we summarize current strategies to reinvigorate exhausted T cells by blocking these surface marker using monoclonal antibodies.

Ennis Paint, Inc. Tyregrip high friction surface system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

Unpredictable : climatic conditions paired with the varying topography in Vermont have often resulted : in dangerous roadway conditions : . : Statistics show that many fatalities occur in rural environments like : Vermont. Federal Highway Administrat...

Intensification of Climate-Carbon Feedbacks after 2100 and Implications for Disturbance Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.; Moore, J. K.; Doney, S. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Bonan, G. B.

2014-12-01

Long-term ecosystem and carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (and its extension). In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical models were exposed to the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. In one simulation, atmospheric CO2 and other forcing agents were radiatively active (fully coupled), modifying temperature and other aspects of climate. In another, CO2 was radiatively uncoupled, and in the third, both CO2 and other atmospheric forcing agents (including CH4, N2O, and aerosols) were radiatively uncoupled. In the fully coupled simulation, global mean air temperatures increased by 9.3°C from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4°C of this warming occurring after 2100. Without radiative forcing from CO2, cumulative warming was much lower at 2.4°C, but exceeding 2°C targets needed to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. In response to climate change, ocean and land rates of carbon uptake were reduced, with the size of the impact increasing over time. In the oceans, reductions in cumulative carbon uptake from climate change increased from 3% during the 20th century to 40% during the 23rd century. By 2300, climate change had reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Most of this reduction occurred after 2100 as a consequence of increases in surface stratification and decreases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change inducing a cumulative loss of 230 Pg C by 2300. On land the intensification of the hydrological cycle globally increased terrestrial water storage, although asymmetric responses were observed across different continents in the tropics. Net loss of carbon from tropical forest ecosystems, in response to large temperature increases, were partly offset by increases in carbon uptake in temperate and high latitude ecosystems. We conclude by presenting an assessment of how climate variability over land and burned area change century by century.

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate or land use.

PubMed

Dempsey, Rachael; Fisher, Ann

2005-12-01

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.

Influence of perceived motivational climate on achievement goals in physical education: a structural equation mixture modeling analysis.

PubMed

Wang, J C; Liu, W C; Chatzisarantis, N L; Lim, C B

2010-06-01

The purpose of the current study was to examine the influence of perceived motivational climate on achievement goals in physical education using a structural equation mixture modeling (SEMM) analysis. Within one analysis, we identified groups of students with homogenous profiles in perceptions of motivational climate and examined the relationships between motivational climate, 2 x 2 achievement goals, and affect, concurrently. The findings of the current study showed that there were at least two distinct groups of students with differing perceptions of motivational climate: one group of students had much higher perceptions in both climates compared with the other group. Regardless of their grouping, the relationships between motivational climate, achievement goals, and enjoyment seemed to be invariant. Mastery climate predicted the adoption of mastery-approach and mastery-avoidance goals; performance climate was related to performance-approach and performance-avoidance goals. Mastery-approach goal had a strong positive effect while performance-avoidance had a small negative effect on enjoyment. Overall, it was concluded that only perception of a mastery motivational climate in physical education may foster intrinsic interest in physical education through adoption of mastery-approach goals.

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.

PubMed

Allen, Myles R; Frame, David J; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai

2009-04-30

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.

Public awareness of home accident risks--some implications for health promotion.

PubMed Central

Bryce, G; Fakher, N

1992-01-01

Through daily contact with injured people there was a feeling that most people are sufficiently aware of the dangers in specific risk factor activities, but were not fully aware that they could do a lot to prevent harm coming upon themselves. This paper describes the results of a self-administered questionnaire about the accidents people suffered at home, their level of awareness of the risk they were undertaking, whether they had had a similar accident before, what they think the recovery period from their injury is likely to be and knowledge of, and accidents involving, 17 generally known risk activities. The results confirm that most people are indeed aware of dangers yet a large number still have accidents in spite of that. The results also indicate that campaigns advising people how to avoid these dangers could be successful. PMID:1388501

Active microwave sensing of the atmosphere, chapter 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The use of active microwave systems to study atmospheric phenomena is studied. Atmospheric pollution, weather prediction, climate and weather modification, weather danger and disaster warning, and atmospheric processes and interactions are covered.

After Delivery

MedlinePlus

... snack or mealtime. Low blood glucose is a real danger. It's important for your baby's safety to avoid blood glucose reactions that could confuse you. For all of the above reasons, it is important to check your blood glucose often during this time. And your records of your blood glucose levels ...

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for America's Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roeder, W. P.; Sardonia, J. E.; Jacobs, S. C.; Hinson, M. S.; Harms, D. E.; Madura, J. T.; DeSordi, S. P.

1999-01-01

The danger of natural and triggered lightning significantly impacts space launch operations supported by the USAF. The lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) are used by the USAF to avoid these lightning threats to space launches. This paper presents a brief overview of the LCC.

Finite-element simulation of possible natural disasters on landfall dams with changes in climate and seismic conditions taken into account

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandurin, M. A.; Volosukhin, V. A.; Vanzha, V. V.; Mikheev, A. V.; Volosukhin, Y. V.

2018-05-01

At present theoretical substations for fundamental methods of forecasting possible natural disasters and for quantitative evaluating remaining live technical state of landfall dams in the mountain regions with higher danger are lacking. In this article, the task was set to carry out finite-element simulation of possible natural disasters with changes in the climate as well as in modern seismic conditions of operation in the mountain regions of the Greater Caucasus with higher danger. The research is aimed at the development of methods and principles for monitoring safety of possible natural disasters, evaluating remaining live technical state of landfall dams having one or another damage and for determination of dam failure riskiness, as well. When developing mathematical models of mudflow descents by inflows tributaries into the main bed, an intensive danger threshold was determined, taking into consideration geomorphological characteristics of earthflow courses, physico-chemical and mechanical state of mudflow mass and the dynamics of their state change. Consequences of mudflow descents into river basins were simulated with assessment of threats and risks for projects with different infrastructures located in the river floodplain.

Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Walsh, Michael; Anenberg, Susan C.; VanDingen, Rita; Muller, Nicholas Z.; Austin, Jeff; Koch, Dorothy; Milly, George

2011-01-01

Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

Getting even or moving on? Power, procedural justice, and types of offense as predictors of revenge, forgiveness, reconciliation, and avoidance in organizations.

PubMed

Aquino, Karl; Tripp, Thomas M; Bies, Robert J

2006-05-01

A field study and an experimental study examined relationships among organizational variables and various responses of victims to perceived wrongdoing. Both studies showed that procedural justice climate moderates the effect of organizational variables on the victim's revenge, forgiveness, reconciliation, or avoidance behaviors. In Study 1, a field study, absolute hierarchical status enhanced forgiveness and reconciliation, but only when perceptions of procedural justice climate were high; relative hierarchical status increased revenge, but only when perceptions of procedural justice climate were low. In Study 2, a laboratory experiment, victims were less likely to endorse vengeance or avoidance depending on the type of wrongdoing, but only when perceptions of procedural justice climate were high.

Introducing future engineers to sustainable ecology problems: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipkowski, A.

2011-12-01

The problem of Earth environmental destruction by human activities is becoming dangerous. Engineers responsible for the production of any goods should be well aware of the negative influence of their activities on the state of the planet. This is why the understanding of ecological problems is essential for people responsible for production and industrial design. The energy, which they consume, is increasing the greenhouse effect and the waste poisons the environment. So far, most courses on ecology are offered to specialists in environmental engineering. These courses are filled with many details. The Warsaw Academy of Computer Science, Management and Administration teaches students in the direction of management and production engineering. Upon completion, the students receive the degree of 'engineer'. Their future work will mainly concern management of different types of industrial enterprises and they will be responsible for organising it in such a way as to avoid a dangerous contribution to environmental pollution and climate change. This is why it was decided to introduce a new course entitled 'Principles of Ecology and Environmental Management'. This course is quite broad, concerning almost all technical, law and organisational aspects of the problem. The presentation is made in a spectacular way, aiming to convince students that their future activity must be environmentally friendly. It contains information about international activities in ecology, legal aspects concerning pollution, technical and information methods of monitoring and, finally, the description of 'green' solutions. Altogether, 27 hours of lectures and 15 hours of discussions and students' presentations complete the course. Details of this course are described in this paper.

How to Spot and Prevent Deep Vein Thrombosis

MedlinePlus

... leg. But if your symptoms stem from a blood clot deep in your leg, it can be dangerous. Blood clots can happen to anyone, anytime. But some people ... Taking steps to reduce your chances of a blood clot forming in your veins can help you avoid ...

NOAA PORTS PROGRAM

Science.gov Websites

greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NOAA PORTS PROGRAM The Physical Oceanographic Real-Time navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid data acquisition and dissemination systems that provide real-time water levels, currents, and other

Values in Conflict: Challenges to Family Therapists' Thinking.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bograd, Michele

1992-01-01

Contends that familiar and comfortable family therapy theories were not designed to deal with violence and may help maintain collective avoidance of the issue of violence among family therapists. Explores limitations of therapeutic neutrality and dangers inherent in some interventions. Concludes that effective amelioration of family violence…

45 CFR 1308.8 - Eligibility criteria: Emotional/behavioral disorders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... relationships, self-care, educational progress or classroom behavior. A child is classified as having an... adults (e.g., avoids playing with peers); (2) Inappropriate behavior (e.g., dangerously aggressive... eligibility decision must be based on multiple sources of data, including assessment of the child's behavior...

45 CFR 1308.8 - Eligibility criteria: Emotional/behavioral disorders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... relationships, self-care, educational progress or classroom behavior. A child is classified as having an... adults (e.g., avoids playing with peers); (2) Inappropriate behavior (e.g., dangerously aggressive... eligibility decision must be based on multiple sources of data, including assessment of the child's behavior...

45 CFR 1308.8 - Eligibility criteria: Emotional/behavioral disorders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... relationships, self-care, educational progress or classroom behavior. A child is classified as having an... adults (e.g., avoids playing with peers); (2) Inappropriate behavior (e.g., dangerously aggressive... eligibility decision must be based on multiple sources of data, including assessment of the child's behavior...

45 CFR 1308.8 - Eligibility criteria: Emotional/behavioral disorders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... relationships, self-care, educational progress or classroom behavior. A child is classified as having an... adults (e.g., avoids playing with peers); (2) Inappropriate behavior (e.g., dangerously aggressive... eligibility decision must be based on multiple sources of data, including assessment of the child's behavior...

Explosive complexes

DOEpatents

Huynh, My Hang V [Los Alamos, NM

2009-09-22

Lead-free primary explosives of the formula [M.sup.II(A).sub.R(B.sup.X).sub.S](C.sup.Y).sub.T, where A is 1,5-diaminotetrazole, and syntheses thereof are described. Substantially stoichiometric equivalents of the reactants lead to high yields of pure compositions thereby avoiding dangerous purification steps.

Explosive complexes

DOEpatents

Huynh, My Hang V [Los Alamos, NM

2011-08-16

Lead-free primary explosives of the formula [M.sup.II(A).sub.R(B.sup.X).sub.S](C.sup.Y).sub.T, where A is 1,5-diaminotetrazole, and syntheses thereof are described. Substantially stoichiometric equivalents of the reactants lead to high yields of pure compositions thereby avoiding dangerous purification steps.

C4MIP - The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Bopp, Laurent; Brovkin, Victor; Dunne, John; Graven, Heather; Hoffman, Forrest; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Jung, Martin; Kawamiya, Michio; Koven, Charlie; Pongratz, Julia; Raddatz, Thomas; Randerson, James T.; Zaehle, Sönke

2016-08-01

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.

Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Military Operations in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-24

and Laos. Prolonged drought can severely affect agriculture and food production, energy produc- tion, and public health.6 Due to population growth...before 2030.7 Climate change, along with poor conservation measures, is expected to reduce freshwater re- serves and agricultural production while also...several likely dangers, including flooding, water scarcity, and agricultural stress, and are in this category because of these effects but also

Coffee and chocolate in danger.

PubMed

Gross, Michael

2014-06-02

As a rapidly growing global consumer base appreciates the pleasures of coffee and chocolate and health warnings are being replaced by more encouraging sounds from medical experts, their supply is under threat from climate change, pests and financial problems. Coffee farmers in Central America, in particular, are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, made worse by financial insecurity. Michael Gross reports. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lead-free primary explosives

DOEpatents

Huynh, My Hang V.

2010-06-22

Lead-free primary explosives of the formula (cat).sub.Y[M.sup.II(T).sub.X(H.sub.2O).sub.6-X].sub.Z, where T is 5-nitrotetrazolate, and syntheses thereof are described. Substantially stoichiometric equivalents of the reactants lead to high yields of pure compositions thereby avoiding dangerous purification steps.

48 CFR 52.222-41 - Service Contract Act of 1965.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... subcontractor which are unsanitary, hazardous, or dangerous to the health or safety of the service employees. The Contractor or subcontractor shall comply with the safety and health standards applied under 29 CFR... avoid serious impairment of the conduct of Government business. (1) Apprentices, student-learners, and...

36 CFR 1004.22 - Unsafe operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., traffic, weather, road and light conditions and road character. (2) Operating a motor vehicle in a manner... Section 1004.22 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PRESIDIO TRUST VEHICLES AND TRAFFIC SAFETY § 1004.22... maintain that degree of control of a motor vehicle necessary to avoid danger to persons, property or...

Queer Research and Queer Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Talburt, Susan

2006-01-01

D'Augelli and Grossman's article offers an eloquent account of a complex longitudinal, interview-based study that surely has the potential to offer nuanced insights into the lives of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) youth. The authors' copious efforts to recruit, retain, and involve youth while avoiding potential dangers to them offer future…

Seven Ways to Kill RTI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noll, Brandi

2013-01-01

The Response to Intervention initiative is in danger of failing and being thrown on the ash heaps of countless education reform initiatives, but not because it is poorly structured, rather on account of poor implementation. Among the implementation mistakes are seven that can be watched for and avoided. (Contains 3 tables.)

Color and Psychological Functioning: The Effect of Red on Performance Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliot, Andrew J.; Maier, Markus A.; Moller, Arlen C.; Friedman, Ron; Meinhardt, Jorg

2007-01-01

This research focuses on the relation between color and psychological functioning, specifically, that between red and performance attainment. Red is hypothesized to impair performance on achievement tasks, because red is associated with the danger of failure in achievement contexts and evokes avoidance motivation. Four experiments demonstrate that…

Climate change, water resources and child health.

PubMed

Kistin, Elizabeth J; Fogarty, John; Pokrasso, Ryan Shaening; McCally, Michael; McCornick, Peter G

2010-07-01

Climate change is occurring and has tremendous consequences for children's health worldwide. This article describes how the rise in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods, glacier melt and sea levels resulting from human-induced climate change is affecting the quantity, quality and flow of water resources worldwide and impacting child health through dangerous effects on water supply and sanitation, food production and human migration. It argues that paediatricians and healthcare professionals have a critical leadership role to play in motivating and sustaining efforts for policy change and programme implementation at the local, national and international level.

[Energy policy rather than climate policy].

PubMed

Kroonenberg, Salomon B

2009-01-01

Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

Brain injury and discrimination: Two competing models-perceptions of responsibility and dangerousness.

PubMed

Foster, Lynette A; Leathem, Janet M; Humphries, Steve

2016-01-01

(1) To examine whether the willingness of people to socialize with adolescents with brain injury is influenced by gender, visibility of injury and/or knowing how to interact with people with brain injury; and (2) To consider two models: the responsibility model (attributions about the cause of a condition) and the danger appraisal model (perceptions of dangerousness due to anger/aggression) for their effect on willingness to socialize and to understand how these perceptions lead to avoidant behaviour. Participants were recruited either by personal approach or via Facebook advertising and completed a survey after reading a brief vignette and seeing a photo of an adolescent male or female, with or without a head scar. Vignettes for some participants were varied to represent perceptions of responsibility and dangerousness Main outcomes and results: ANOVAs and structural equation modelling revealed that participants were more willing to socialize with the adolescents with a scar than with no scar. Knowledge about how to interact with survivors impacted willingness to socialize, but familiarity did not. The full danger appraisal model was supported, but only some aspects of the responsibility model were supported. The results provide useful information for rehabilitation health professionals working with survivors of brain injury. The implications of these findings are discussed with regards to assisting adolescents' re-entry into society post-injury.

2014 Summer Series - Rusty Schweickart - Dinosaur Syndrome Avoidance Project: How Gozit?

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-07-17

The 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor demonstrated that grave uncertainties exist pertaining to near-Earth objects (NEOs). Although the impact rate for dangerous asteroids is relatively low, the consequences of such an event are severe. Apollo Astronaut Rusty Schweickart, will talk about our prospects of avoiding the same fate as the dinosaurs. He will review the status of the global efforts to protect life on the planet from the devastation of large asteroid impacts. He will also discuss both the technical and geopolitical components of the challenge of preventing future asteroid impacts.

Prospective randomized investigation for evaluation of postoperative changes in the microbial climate of paranasal mucosa by the use of different dissoluting techniques during postoperative care.

PubMed

Maune, S; Johannssen, V; Sahly, H; Werner, J A; Salhy, H

1999-09-01

Endonasal dissolution by the use of NaCl-solution is a common postoperative treatment of the nasal mucosa after endonasal surgery. These procedure involve for example endonasal shower and sterilized solutions. The contamination of nasal shower in case of unprofessional cleaning after treatment was an argument against this technique in earlier discussions. The danger of such an infection should be avoided by the use of sterilized solution. Therefore the dependence of nasal microbial climate on different nasal dissoluting techniques was investigated by the use of such named endonasal shower (Siemens und Co, Bad Ems, Germany) in comparison with sterilized solution (Rhinomer, Zyma SA, Nyon, France). Microbial cultures were investigated of 80 patients after endonasal surgery (53 m, 27 f; 31 +/- 21 age). Surgery was done for the treatment of chronic polypous sinusitis. Pre-, intra- and postoperative samples were taken in 640 cases to proceed microbial cultures. Material was transferred with the use of a Port-A-Cul-transport medium and preparation of the microbial cultures was done during the first four hours. As a result 895 bacterial clones were cultivated. These consisted of 87% aerob and 13% anaerob bacteria. Staphylococcus aureus (39%) and members of the family of Enterobactericae (30%) were the most common microbes. There was neither an evidence for postoperative microbes on the nasal mucosa nor a correlation between the dissoluting technique and the postoperative outcome. The use of sterilized solutions for the postoperative care of endonasal mucosa does not cause an additional worthful effect on neither the postoperative microbial climate nor the outcome in comparison to endonasal shower.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

2008-06-01

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately any IPCC statements. As this perspective article is being written, the UK (and worldwide) is facing almost unprecedented increases in the cost of petrol and diesel, and with the transport sector lobbying hard for tax incentives/rebates to reduce fuel costs. In the middle of this, some government ministers are suggesting that from the climate change angle, lower dependence on fossil fuels (forced on the population by such higher prices) might be a good thing. But their voices are drowned by other ministers saying that such an approach is deeply unpopular with the electorate—to what extent, therefore, is the tabloid press responsible for the lack of urgency related to potential future damage to the planet? How else are people informed about the climate change debate? Aside from TV and radio, popular science books are usually a good source of information. However a viewing of the environmental sciences department in any bookshop at present will reveal how remarkably polarized the climate change debate is becoming. Some books have very alarming titles; for instance Pearce (2007) is titled 'The Last Generation: How Nature will take her Revenge for Climate Change'. Meanwhile other books are appearing with titles suggesting that the entire issue is given far too much emphasis, is used as a means for politicians to keep society fearful (and presumably, therefore, more controllable), or present a view that the IPCC system is scientifically deeply flawed. Examples of these include Spencer (2008) titled 'Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor', Booker and North (2007) titled 'Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth' and two books by Michaels—Michaels (2004) 'Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media' and Michaels (2005) 'Shattered Consensus: The True state of Global Warming'. Both polarized views could be argued as detrimental to addressing possible dangerous climate change. The first argument (i.e. 'we are doomed') gives the impression that climate change is so serious, and possibly unstoppable in the immediate future, that this could lead readers to decide there is nothing that can be achieved on an individual basis—and yet any measure to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse concentrations will require changed behaviour regarding fossil fuel usage at the individual level. On the other hand, simply to ignore the effects of increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate system could lead the planet in to a highly undesirable 'dangerous' state, and one that is potentially difficult or impossible to reverse in reasonable timescales. Fortunately there are some books on the subject of climate change that do present the science without bias, such as 'Global Warming' by Houghton (2004). One new book of particular interest is that of Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor, whose recent publication on climate change (Lawson 2008) is titled 'An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming'. Lawson (2008) contains a range of very interesting and interlinked strands regarding the climate change debate. As with many books discussing technical matters, it is always of interest to first check the citations, and here it is comprehensive, up-to-date and certainly does not initially appear to be selective (this is also true of the two books by Michaels). This therefore creates what seems like a paradox. Given that so many of the key papers cited by Lawson (2008) form the backbone of current understanding of climate change, and many researchers quote these as reasons for concern regarding global warming, how is it that this book instead, concludes (see the dust cover) '… the conventional wisdom on the subject is suspect on a number of grounds; … global warming is not the devastating threat to the planet it is widely alleged to be'? What is the overall feeling after reading some of Lawson (2008)? Well first and foremost, we believe that although the use of literature is impressive, there appears to be a deliberate search for the remaining scientific uncertainty (i.e. issues freely acknowledged by climate change scientists as requiring refinement, but used in this book as a reason to doubt the entire scientific debate about global warming). On this basis, it is tempting therefore to just ignore this contribution to the debate, but a more positive approach is to re-address these uncertainties, and in the process generate more concise scientific understanding and presentation. Top of this list would be Lawson's key argument that global warming has stalled between the year 2001 and 2007—'there has been no further global warming since the turn of the century … which has occurred at a time when global CO2 emissions have been rising faster than ever'. Lawson then cites, correctly, Smith et al (2007) but who in fact point out that this is almost certainly due to internal variability and we may expect more warming from year 2009 onwards. Lawson concludes that such a 'resumption of warming' may or may not occur. In our view the climate modelling community should work hard to revisit and extend the work of Smith et al (2007), possibly applying their technique to multiple climate models. In parallel there is a desperate need for better explanation by researchers that, even against a background warming trend, natural variability will mean that on a year-to-year basis, warming will not necessarily be monotonic. Some of Lawson's other arguments can be more readily rebutted. Two issues he presents are that trends in global temperature could be a function of varying sunspot activity, and that the global warming measured during the second half of the 20th Century could be a consequence of urbanization around measurement stations (the 'heat island' effect). Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) and Parker (2006) provide highly detailed and convincing reasons why, respectively, these two arguments cannot explain the warming trend seen in measurements during the last fifty years—these two papers require more extensive circulation. Lawson attacks the IPCC panel as changing from a 'fact-finding and analytical exercise' in to 'something more like a politically correct alarmist pressure group'. This is particularly unfortunate and is not consistent with the facts. For example Stott et al (2000), using statistical 'detection and attribution' analyses, utilized the spatial patterns observable in the temperature record to tease apart natural oscillations from those caused by human adjustments to atmospheric composition. This underpinned in part the statement in the 3rd IPCC Assessment (IPCC 2001) that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. It should be noted that all such analyses require disproving of the null hypthoesis (i.e. humans have no influence), and to a very high level of statistical confidence. In other words, the IPCC report depends heavily on research scientists whose starting point is actually that higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations (most notably CO2) have had no effect on surface temperatures, unless there is significant evidence to the contrary. At some points, Lawson cannot be taken seriously. He points out (correctly) that CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases without which life would be unable to survive. However, this is then used to state that 'to describe the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as pollution is as absurd as it would be to describe the clouds as pollution'. In fact most pollutants of the atmosphere are emitted from anthropogenic activity and through natural processes. The gases become pollutants by exceeding thresholds above which damage occurs—these basic principles are widely accepted in the scientific community. Hence there is still the requirement to explain in very general terms the role of near-stable (at century timescales) pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations in sustaining life (along with the other greenhouse gas concentrations), but how much higher values of CO2 could cause dangerous perturbation to the climate system. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) provide a valuable insight in to how climate change is presented in the media. As the general consensus among climate research scientists is that to avoid 'dangerous' climate change there is a requirement to make very large reductions in emissions and soon, then this will be politically difficult to achieve against such a backdrop of such press reporting denying the IPCC message. We have also used this perspective article to consider how the debate over climate change (as induced through anthropogenic emissions) is presented through popular science books. In some ways this is equally worrying—how is it that such polarized views can be presented in books frequently citing the same research papers? With significant public funds placed in climate change research, it might be expected that the public deserve more definitive answers. So the main question here is whether (a) there remains massive uncertainty in how raised atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will manifest themselves through changes to future climates, or, (b) is there selective interpretation of key research papers (and indeed the IPCC report). If the answer is (b)—and that is consistent with the evidence—then each scientific issue raised by the sceptics should be addressed. There are important steps in this direction. For example the Royal Society has on its web site specific answers to several of the commonly used misleading arguments. See http://royalsociety.org/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 a web page entitled 'Facts and fictions about climate change'. As governments struggle to balance issues of economic development, the ubiquitous use of fossil fuels, and the need for very large reductions in emissions to ultimately stabilise the climate at safe levels, then it is essential that those involved in climate change research keep a careful note of the portrayal of their research in the media. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) (and citations therein) make an important contribution to this process. Ultimately, of course, (for predictions corresponding to different prescribed emissions scenarios) we are working with an issue embedded in fundamental science. If newspapers and books take a sceptical angle, and through this force further reductions in uncertainty bounds surrounding available scientific understanding, then such reporting will have played a useful role, even if ultimately shown to be incorrect. But such refinement has to happen quickly—if a global consensus emerges, unchallenged, that climate change issues are being vastly overplayed (or worse are almost some form of hoax) then we could be 'sleep walking' towards eventual climatic disaster as a consequence of a 'business as usual' attitude to emissions. We believe the current debate to be vital. But ultimately, society requires a balanced presentation of the facts. It is unreasonable to expect the tabloid media to avoid oversimplification and sensational comments, but it is reasonable and necessary in support of the political process to present a balanced view, and to avoid systematic misrepresentation of the science in either direction. We believe the IPCC goes a long way towards achieving this—but there is still much to do. References Booker B and North R 2007 Scared to Death. From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth (London: Continuum) Boykoff M T and Mansfield M 2008 Ye Olde Hot Aire: reporting on human contributions to climate change in the UK tabloid press Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024002 Houghton J 2004 Global Warming (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed J T Houghton, Y Ding, D J Griggs, M Noguer, P J van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell and C A Johnson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor, and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Lawson N 2008 An Appeal to Reason: a Cool Look at Global Warming (London: Duckworth Overlook) Michaels P J 2004 Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (Washington: CATO Institute) Michaels P J (ed) 2005 Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield) Parker D E 2006 A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban J. Climate 19 2882 95 Pearce F 2007 The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change (London: Eden Project Books) Schellnhuber H J, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T and Yohe G (ed) 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Sloan T and Wolfendale A W 2008 Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024001 Smith D M, Cusack S, Colman A W, Folland C K, Harris G R and Murphy J M 2007 Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model Science 317 796 9 Spencer C 2008 Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor (New York: Encounter Books) Stott P A, Tett S F B, Jones G S, Allen M R, Mitchell J F B and Jenkins G J 2000 External control of twentieth century temperature variations by natural and anthropogenic forcings Science 290 2133 7 Photo of Chris Huntingford Dr Chris Huntingford has a degree in mathematics from Cambridge University, and a PhD in fluid dynamics from the University of Oxford. Since 1993 he has worked at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formally the Institute of Hydrology), and has been mainly interested in the role of land atmosphere interactions within the global carbon cycle. Some of his activities involve collaboration with policymakers, and Chris is currently helping to understand what would happen in the world should potentially dangerous levels of climate change occur—and in particular how easy is it for the Earth System to return back to safe levels. Photo of David Fowler Professor David Fowler obtained a PhD in environmental physics from Nottingham University in 1976 and has worked for the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (previously Institute of Terrestrial Ecology) at the Edinburgh laboratory since 1975. David's research career has included work on all the major gaseous atmospheric pollutants, including several greenhouse gases. He has also worked on the effects of pollutant gases on vegetation and soil and has been closely involved with the development of UK maps of the distribution of air pollutants. He chairs and sits on several international committees looking at air pollution within Europe. David has published over 300 scientific papers and book chapters. He was awarded an honorary professorship from the University of Nottingham in 1990 and elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 1999 and a Fellow of the Royal Society of London in 2002.

The economics and ethics of aerosol geoengineering strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus; Tuana, Nancy

2010-05-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: geoengineering climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) a potential failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) due to potential negative impacts associated with aerosol forcings. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcings. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes considerable caveats. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of future learning and is based on a simple representation of climate change impacts. We use this integrated assessment model to show three main points. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can fail the test of economic efficiency. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, deploying aerosol geoengineering may also fail an ethical test regarding issues of intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for reducing greenhouse gas emissions constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, for example due to the increased risk of future abrupt climate change. This risk transfer is in tension with the requirement of intergenerational justice that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.

A problem of collision avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vincent, T. L.; Cliff, E. M.; Grantham, W. J.; Peng, W. Y.

1972-01-01

Collision avoidance between two vehicles of constant speed with limited turning radii, moving in a horizontal plane is investigated. Collision avoidance is viewed as a game by assuming that the operator of one vehicle has perfect knowledge of the state of the other, whereas the operator of the second vehicle is unaware of any impending danger. The situation envisioned is that of an encounter between a commercial aircraft and a small light aircraft. This worse case situation is examined to determine the conditions under which the commercial aircraft should execute a collision avoidance maneuver. Three different zones of vulnerability are defined and the boundaries, or barriers, between these zones are determined for a typical aircraft encounter. A discussion of the methods used to obtain the results as well as some of the salient features associated with the resultant barriers is included.

Hope, despair and transformation: Climate change and the promotion of mental health and wellbeing

PubMed Central

Fritze, Jessica G; Blashki, Grant A; Burke, Susie; Wiseman, John

2008-01-01

Background This article aims to provide an introduction to emerging evidence and debate about the relationship between climate change and mental health. Discussion and Conclusion The authors argue that: i) the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events will have significant mental health implications; ii) climate change is already impacting on the social, economic and environmental determinants of mental health with the most severe consequences being felt by disadvantaged communities and populations; iii) understanding the full extent of the long term social and environmental challenges posed by climate change has the potential to create emotional distress and anxiety; and iv) understanding the psycho-social implications of climate change is also an important starting point for informed action to prevent dangerous climate change at individual, community and societal levels. PMID:18799005

Salt, Water, and Athletes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Nathan J.

Good nutrition for athletes demands plenty of water, since water is essential to such vital functions as muscle reactions. Dehydration can result from jet travel as well as from exercise and heat, making it a danger to traveling athletic teams. To avoid dehydration, water needs should be monitored by frequent weighing, and a clean water supply…

77 FR 67613 - Patterns of Safety Violations by Motor Carrier Management

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-13

... Internet, you may view the docket online by visiting the Docket Management Facility in Room W12-140 on the... occurred in Sherman, Texas, highlighting the danger posed by motor carriers and other persons who avoid... authority registration for failing to disclose, among other things, common management or control with any...

Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs about Children's Risky Play in Australia and Norway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Little, Helen; Sandseter, Ellen Beate Hansen; Wyver, Shirley

2012-01-01

Positive risk-taking in the context of outdoor physical play is important for fostering children's optimal health and development. Despite this, there is mounting concern that many developmentally beneficial activities are now seen as dangerous and something to be avoided. However, perceptions of risk are very much subject to cultural…

Sequence analysis of a bitter taste receptor gene repertoires in different ruminant species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bitter taste has been extensively studied in mammalian species and is associated with sensitivity to toxins and with food choices that avoid dangerous substances in the diet. At the molecular level, bitter compounds are sensed by bitter taste receptor proteins (T2R) present at the surface of taste r...

Fire Behavior System for the Full Range of Fire Management Needs

Treesearch

Richard C. Rothermel; Patricia L. Andrews

1987-01-01

An "integrated fire behavior/fire danger rating system" should be "seamless" to avoid requiring choices among alternate, independent systems. Descriptions of fuel moisture, fuels, and fire behavior should be standardized, permitting information to flow easily through the spectrum of fire management needs. The level of resolution depends on the...

Sunburn and Lyme Disease: Two Preventable Injuries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pavlicin, Karen M.

1995-01-01

Stresses the importance of educating campers and staff about the dangers of overexposure to the sun and the transmission of Lyme disease. Discusses the importance of using an appropriate sunscreen and avoiding outdoor activities during peak hours of sunlight. Discusses how Lyme disease is transmitted, the life cycle of a tick, and how to remove…

Techniques and results of nongame bird monitoring in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.; Oelke, H.

1980-01-01

Long-term bird population trends based on accumulated ratios (proportional change) sometimes give a very misleading view of population change. Alternate methods of representing population change, based on the weighted means for the individual years, avoid the dangers of using ratios. Some advantages and disadvantages of various weighting techniques are discussed.

Environmental Impact Analysis Process. Final Environmental Impact Statement. Part 2A. Proposed Central Radar System Over-the-Horizon Backscatter Radar Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-01

processes or thermoregulation . Most investigations involving chronic exposures of mammals indicated either that no effects occurred or that reversible...radiofrequency radiation danger "* Fish, reptiles , and amphibians - Few species and fisheries - Avoid streams and wetlands, when possible 3-37 BIRDS "* The

Climate Change: Ethics and Collective Responsibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peacock, K.; Brown, M. B.; Mann, M. E.; Lewandowsky, S.

2014-12-01

Climate change poses grave risks for societies and people all around the earth. Though details of the risks remain uncertain, they include accelerating sea level rise and ocean acidification, regional drought, floods and heat waves, crop failures and more: dangerous changes are already occurring, while GHG emissions continue to grow, ice melts, water expands, temperature rises, and weather patterns shift. Our roles as individuals and nations in producing the emissions of GHGs responsible for this episode of climate change, and the actions that could be taken to mitigate it, raise difficult ethical questions. When we are responsible for putting others in danger, we have a duty to mitigate that danger. But our sense of responsibility is diluted here: each individual act contributes only minutely to the overall risks, and the links between individual acts and the harms they produce are complex, indirect and involve many other agents. In these circumstances, our sense of personal responsibility is diminished and uncoordinated, individual responses to the risks become ineffective. We propose a view of the ethics of climate change that begins with the tragedy of the commons: Free use of a shared, indispensable resource can lead to catastrophe as the resource is overrun, and the destruction of the commons arises from choices that are individuallyrational, if each person's choice is made independently of others'. Finally, individuals often fail to make ethical choices when the links between individual actions and their negative outcomes are obscure, when individual choices are made separately and privately, and when special interests stand to gain from actions that are generally harmful. Philosophical work in ethics has emphasized the role of ethics in enabling cooperation between individuals and coordinating group responses to problems, while recent work on social rules has modeled them as generalized forbiddings, taught and enforced by 'blocking' behaviours which discourage forbidden action-types. We argue that a successful response to climate change will depend on adopting ethically grounded rules (laws and treaties) that acknowledge collective responsibility and take a clear stand against special interests: Margaret Thatcher notwithstanding, there is such a thing as society—or so we must hope.

Simulating the Earth System Response to Negative Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, R. B.; Milne, J.; Littleton, E. W.; Jones, C.; Canadell, J.; Peters, G. P.; van Vuuren, D.; Davis, S. J.; Jonas, M.; Smith, P.; Ciais, P.; Rogelj, J.; Torvanger, A.; Shrestha, G.

2016-12-01

The natural carbon sinks of the land and oceans absorb approximately half the anthropogenic CO2 emitted every year. The CO2 that is not absorbed accumulates in the Earth's atmosphere and traps the suns rays causing an increase in the global mean temperature. Removing this left over CO2 using negative emissions technologies (NETs) has been proposed as a strategy to lessen the accumulating CO2 and avoid dangerous climate change. Using CMIP5 Earth system model simulations this study assessed the impact on the global carbon cycle, and how the Earth system might respond, to negative emissions strategies applied to low emissions scenarios, over different times horizons from the year 2000 to 2300. The modeling results suggest that using NETs to remove atmospheric CO2 over five 50-year time horizons has varying effects at different points in time. The effects of anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks, can result in positive or negative changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Results show that historic emissions and the current state of the Earth System have impacts on the behavior of atmospheric CO2, as do instantaneous anthropogenic emissions. Indeed, varying background scenarios seemed to have a greater effect on atmospheric CO2 than the actual amount and timing of NETs. These results show how NETs interact with the physical climate-carbon cycle system and highlight the need for more research on earth-system dynamics as they relate to carbon sinks and sources and anthropogenic perturbations.

Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

Can a Human-Induced Climate Disaster be Avoided?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, R.

2012-12-01

Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are one of the greatest threats to our future prosperity. World emissions are currently around 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent per annum and are growing rapidly. Atmospheric concentrations of GHG emissions in the atmosphere have increased, to over 400ppm of CO2e today, even after taking the offsetting radiative effects of aerosols into account, and are increasing at a rate of around 2.5ppm per year. The world's current lack of "adequate" commitments to reduce emissions are consistent with at least a 3oC rise (50-50 chance) in temperature: a temperature not seen on the planet for around 3 million years, with serious risks of 5oC rise: a temperature not seen on the planet for around 30 million years. So what are the implications of a 3-5oC rise in temperature, with associated changes in, rising sea levels, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of the Greenland ice cap, shrinking Arctic Sea ice, especially in summer, increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and intensification of cyclonic events, such as hurricanes in the Atlantic. Even a 2oC increase in mean surface temperatures will adversely affect freshwater, food and fiber, natural ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems, especially in developing countries. The impacts of 3-5oC will be extensive, predominantly negative, undermine development and poverty alleviation goals and cut across most sectors. To address human-induced climate change requires a transition to a low carbon economy, which will require rapid technological evolution in the efficiency of energy use, environmentally sound low-carbon renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage. The longer we wait to transition to a low carbon economy the more we are locked into a high carbon energy system with consequent environmental damage to ecological and socio-economic systems. Unfortunately the political will to achieve the 2oC goal agreed by Ministers in Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban does not exist. Indeed, the US has argued that this goal will actually inhibit national action while politicians argue about how to achieve such a global goal. If we are to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate change, the time to act is now, given the inertia in the socio-economic system, and that the adverse effects of climate change cannot be reversed for centuries or are irreversible (for example, climate-induced species loss). We know enough to act, but the current scientific uncertainties, means that we are facing a problem of risk management on an immense scale. Failure to act will impoverish current and future generations.

Control of heat and humidity in German mines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlotte, W.

1999-07-01

In order to increase the economic efficiency of West European hard coal, great efforts are being made at present in the coal-producing countries to lower production costs. This aim is to be achieved in Germany, among other things, by a drastic increase in the saleable output per working face up to an average of 10,000 t/d in these cases where very long longwall faces (400 m {+-} 50 m) are possible. With the substantially greater heat input into the air stream which this involves, there is the danger that climatic limits will be exceeded even at longwall faces with lowermore » than average rock temperatures. Working in high temperatures and/or humidities can lead to risky lack of concentration of the miners to heat collapse and extremely dangerous heat stroke. In order to minimize the costs for mine climate control well-proven planning software and climitization technology is necessary for underground workings. With the DMT climate simulation programs, both the dry and the extremely significant humid heat transfer can be calculated and the optimum air cooling system for a mine can be designed with due regard to technical and economic aspects.« less

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goes, M.; Keller, K.; Tuana, N.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for the deployment of a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically suggest that substituting aerosol geoengineering for abatement of carbon dioxide emissions results in large net monetary benefits. However, these studies neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for future geoengineering failures and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on the question of intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of endogenous learning about the climate system. We show that the risks associated with a future geoengineering failure and negative impacts of aerosol forcings can cause geoenginering strategies to fail an economic cost-benefit test. One key to this finding is that a geoengineering failure would lead to dramatic and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to this failure can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement might fail not only an economic cost-benefit test but also an ethical test of distributional justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations. Intergenerational justice demands distributional justice, namely that present generations may not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations. We use the economic model to quantify this risk transfer to better inform the judgment of whether substituting aerosol geoengineering for carbon dioxide emission abatement fails this ethical test.

Effective Climate Communication with Difficult Audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denning, S.

2015-12-01

Climate communication is often fraught with ideological baggage ("noise") that makes it very difficult to connect to audiences. In these cases, it is helpful to use "best practices" known from other fields of communication. Engaging audiences with authenticity, using plain language, respecting cultural and political differences, and a sprinkling of humor can go a long way toward establishing a connection. It's important to avoid common but polarizing tropes from popular media, and often quite helpful to frame climate issues in novel or unexpected ways that cut across entrenched political discourse. Emerging social science research Beyond ideology, climate change is Simple, Serious, and Solvable. Effective communication of these three key ideas can succeed when the science argument is carefully framed to avoid attack of the audience's ethical identity. Simple arguments from common sense and everyday experience are more successful than data. Serious consequences to values that resonate with the audience can be avoided by solutions that don't threaten those values.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. December 2005 Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

6 7.1 Climate Change……………..………………………………………………………..6 7.1.1 Melting Permafrost Releases Methane Twenty Times More Dangerous for Global Warming than...Dangerous for Global Warming than CO2 Permafrost covers much of Russia, Canada, and Alaska. As it melts, trapped methane gas is released, which is...period of time; however, the phenomenon has not been properly factored into global warming forecasts. With less snow and ice, solar radiation that used

Development of Applications about Hazards and Preventions of Drug Based On Android

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartatik; Febriyanto, F.; Munawaroh, H.

2018-03-01

The number of drug abuse was increase among the younger generation, it caused younger generation fall into drug abuse, and it will lead to physical and mental damage. The lack of knowledge of drugs danger is one of the most potential problems, so in this study we made an application about the types, dangers, and how to avoid its abusement. The application built using PHP programming language with codeiniter framework on admin part, while the parsing data between mobile application server using Javascript Object Notation (JSON). This application has been tested and 85% respondents stated that this application provides positive benefits especially for the socialization of drug abuse.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

2000-01-01

Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

Geoengineering the climate: an overview and update.

PubMed

Shepherd, J G

2012-09-13

The climate change that we are experiencing now is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activities, including burning fossil fuels, agriculture and deforestation. There is now widespread belief that a global warming of greater than 2(°)C above pre-industrial levels would be dangerous and should therefore be avoided. However, despite growing concerns over climate change and numerous international attempts to agree on reductions of global CO(2) emissions, these have continued to climb. This has led some commentators to suggest more radical 'geoengineering' alternatives to conventional mitigation by reductions in CO(2) emissions. Geoengineering is deliberate intervention in the climate system to counteract man-made global warming. There are two main classes of geoengineering: direct carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management that aims to cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. The findings of the review of geoengineering carried out by the UK Royal Society in 2009 are summarized here, including the climate effects, costs, risks and research and governance needs for various approaches. The possible role of geoengineering in a portfolio of responses to climate change is discussed, and various recent initiatives to establish good governance of research activity are reviewed. Key findings include the following.- Geoengineering is not a magic bullet and not an alternative to emissions reductions. - Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions must remain our highest priority. (i) But this is proving to be difficult, and geoengineering may be useful to support it. - Geoengineering is very likely to be technically possible. (i) However, there are major uncertainties and potential risks concerning effectiveness, costs and social and environmental impacts. - Much more research is needed, as well as public engagement and a system of regulation (for both deployment and for possible large-scale field tests). - The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors. Some methods of both types would involve release of materials to the environment, either to the atmosphere or to the oceans, in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The intended impacts on climate would in any case affect many or all countries, possibly to a variable extent. There are therefore inherent international implications for deployment of such geoengineering methods (and possibly also for some forms of research), which need early and collaborative consideration, before any deployment or large-scale experiments could be undertaken responsibly.

Aversive olfactory associative memory loses odor specificity over time

PubMed Central

König, Christian; Antwi-Adjei, Emmanuel; Ganesan, Mathangi; Kilonzo, Kasyoka; Viswanathan, Vignesh; Durairaja, Archana; Voigt, Anne

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Avoiding associatively learned predictors of danger is crucial for survival. Aversive memories can, however, become counter-adaptive when they are overly generalized to harmless cues and contexts. In a fruit fly odor–electric shock associative memory paradigm, we found that learned avoidance lost its specificity for the trained odor and became general to novel odors within a day of training. We discuss the possible neural circuit mechanisms of this effect and highlight the parallelism to over-generalization of learned fear behavior after an incubation period in rodents and humans, with due relevance for post-traumatic stress disorder. PMID:28468811

Survival of the stillest: predator avoidance in shark embryos.

PubMed

Kempster, Ryan M; Hart, Nathan S; Collin, Shaun P

2013-01-01

Sharks use highly sensitive electroreceptors to detect the electric fields emitted by potential prey. However, it is not known whether prey animals are able to modulate their own bioelectrical signals to reduce predation risk. Here, we show that some shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) embryos can detect predator-mimicking electric fields and respond by ceasing their respiratory gill movements. Despite being confined to the small space within the egg case, where they are vulnerable to predators, embryonic sharks are able to recognise dangerous stimuli and react with an innate avoidance response. Knowledge of such behaviours, may inform the development of effective shark repellents.

Lepton masses and mixings in orbifold models with three Higgs families

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escudero, N.; Muñoz, C.; Teixeira, A. M.

2007-12-01

We analyse the phenomenological viability of heterotic Z3 orbifolds with two Wilson lines, which naturally predict three supersymmetric families of matter and Higgs fields. Given that these models can accommodate realistic scenarios for the quark sector avoiding potentially dangerous flavour-changing neutral currents, we now address the leptonic sector, finding that viable orbifold configurations can in principle be obtained. In particular, it is possible to accomodate present data on charged lepton masses, while avoiding conflict with lepton flavour-violating decays. Concerning the generation of neutrino masses and mixings, we find that Z3 orbifolds offer several interesting possibilities.

Applying the Science of Science Communication to Climate Change and Clean Energy: Lessons Learned from the NSF- and PBS-supported "Earth: The Operators' Manual"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haines-Stiles, G.; Akuginow, E.; Sanford, C.

2014-12-01

Yale legal scholar and professor of psychology Dan Kahan has criticized the climate change science community for not applying what's known about effective communications strategies to topics with potentially controversial content. "Earth: The Operators' Manual," funded by NSF's Informal Science Education program and appearing on PBS was hosted by Penn State geoscientist Richard Alley. From the initial proposal forward into airing on public television in 2011 and 2012, ETOM aimed to be authoritative and apolitical while still being engaging to general audiences. Based on social scientific insights from project Advisor, Suzanne Moser, and others, ETOM aimed to avoid "climate porn" scare tactics and over-used footage, and to enlist a diverse group of "messengers" in addition to Alley. An important design criterion was to give equal time to clean energy solutions while pulling no punches as to the consensus findings of leading climate scientists. With the ETOM project now completed and final reports submitted to NSF, what results can be shared to inform future efforts? And how did ETOM compare in audience impact with other major media efforts such as Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" or Showtime's more recent "Years of Living Dangerously"? Results reported draw on the external evaluation by Rockman Et Al, and include both quantitative and qualitative data. Key findings are the importance of including Texan ranchers enthusiastic about wind power alongside Navy Admirals adamant that climate change is human-caused and Marines implementing solar energy to reduce casualties incurred while transporting fossil fuels. In-person presentations by Alley and others at science centers served as de facto focus groups for scripting the TV programs, along with actual focus groups convened by Rockman. The 3rd program, ENERGY QUEST USA, documented 5 quite different communities, from Alaska to Forth Worth, Baltimore, Portland and Kansas, all using competition, local values, and economic incentives to move ahead. Might a more political approach have generated larger audiences? Perhaps, but at the cost of generating materials that have proven potential for long-lived use in both secondary and tertiary education.

The dangers of long-term catheter drainage.

PubMed

Lowthian, P

There are many dangers associated with long-term urinary bladder drainage by catheter. For various reasons, the choice of catheter is important, and its initial insertion can be particularly hazardous. All catheterizations should, however, be safer when there is some urine (or other fluid) in the bladder. The appropriate choice of drainage system attached to the catheter can delay bacterial invasion of the bladder. Great care is needed to prevent blockage of the system, particularly when bacteriuria is present. Recent evidence indicates that some bacteria encourage the development of encrustations, so that, in some circumstances, catheters may become blocked within 24 hours. This, together with other considerations, strongly suggests that indwelling catheters should be changed at intervals of not more than 5 days. The practical implications of this are considered, as are the benefits that may accrue. Accidental catheter traction is another danger, and some possible methods of avoiding this are discussed. Finally, the need for a new kind of drainage-bag support is highlighted.

Do Emergency Text Messaging Systems Put Students in More Danger?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bambenek, John; Klus, Agnieszka

2008-01-01

Cell phones have become prevalent on college campuses. Most students use them as their primary phone to avoid changing phone service every year or dealing with university-based long-distance charges. In the wake of recent college shootings and threats of violence on campus, administrators have begun to deploy cell phone solutions to send emergency…

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Fearful Foragers: Honey Bees Tune Colony and Individual Foraging to Multi-Predator Presence and Food Quality

PubMed Central

Tan, Ken; Hu, Zongwen; Chen, Weiwen; Wang, Zhengwei; Wang, Yuchong; Nieh, James C.

2013-01-01

Fear can have strong ecosystem effects by giving predators a role disproportionate to their actual kill rates. In bees, fear is shown through foragers avoiding dangerous food sites, thereby reducing the fitness of pollinated plants. However, it remains unclear how fear affects pollinators in a complex natural scenario involving multiple predator species and different patch qualities. We studied hornets, Vespa velutina (smaller) and V. tropica (bigger) preying upon the Asian honey bee, Apis cerana in China. Hornets hunted bees on flowers and were attacked by bee colonies. Bees treated the bigger hornet species (which is 4 fold more massive) as more dangerous. It received 4.5 fold more attackers than the smaller hornet species. We tested bee responses to a three-feeder array with different hornet species and varying resource qualities. When all feeders offered 30% sucrose solution (w/w), colony foraging allocation, individual visits, and individual patch residence times were reduced according to the degree of danger. Predator presence reduced foraging visits by 55–79% and residence times by 17–33%. When feeders offered different reward levels (15%, 30%, or 45% sucrose), colony and individual foraging favored higher sugar concentrations. However, when balancing food quality against multiple threats (sweeter food corresponding to higher danger), colonies exhibited greater fear than individuals. Colonies decreased foraging at low and high danger patches. Individuals exhibited less fear and only decreased visits to the high danger patch. Contrasting individual with emergent colony-level effects of fear can thus illuminate how predators shape pollination by social bees. PMID:24098734

Paraventricular Thalamus Balances Danger and Reward.

PubMed

Choi, Eun A; McNally, Gavan P

2017-03-15

Foraging animals balance the need to seek food and energy against the accompanying dangers of injury and predation. To do so, they rely on learning systems encoding reward and danger. Whereas much is known about these separate learning systems, little is known about how they interact to shape and guide behavior. Here we show a key role for the rat paraventricular nucleus of the thalamus (PVT), a nucleus of the dorsal midline thalamus, in this interaction. First, we show behavioral competition between reward and danger: the opportunity to seek food reward negatively modulates expression of species-typical defensive behavior. Then, using a chemogenetic approach expressing the inhibitory hM4Di designer receptor exclusively activated by a designer drug in PVT neurons, we show that the PVT is central to this behavioral competition. Chemogenetic PVT silencing biases behavior toward either defense or reward depending on the experimental conditions, but does not consistently favor expression of one over the other. This bias could not be attributed to changes in fear memory retrieval, learned safety, or memory interference. Rather, our results demonstrate that the PVT is essential for balancing conflicting behavioral tendencies toward danger and reward, enabling adaptive responding under this basic selection pressure. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Among the most basic survival problems faced by animals is balancing the need to seek food and energy against the accompanying dangers of injury and predation. Although much is known about the brain mechanisms that underpin learning about reward and danger, little is known about how these interact to solve basic survival problems. Here we show competition between defensive (to avoid predatory detection) and approach (to obtain food) behavior. We show that the paraventricular thalamus, a nucleus of the dorsal midline thalamus, is integral to this behavioral competition. The paraventricular thalamus balances the competing behavioral demands of danger and reward, enabling adaptive responding under this selection pressure. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/373018-12$15.00/0.

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

PubMed

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-11-15

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring Undergraduate Engagement With The Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, N.; Danielson, R.; Lombardi, D.

2013-12-01

Engendering conceptual change from naive to scientifically sophisticated beliefs is a difficult task. One factor that fosters conceptual change is greater engagement with a topic. Yet if one asks about a topic in the wrong way, one may fail to find engagement where it exists or assume it exists where it does not. Climate change is an immense topic with consequences across many domains and people may be more concerned with specific consequences than with the topic generally. Therefore, it may be helpful to disambiguate the various risks to see which consequences people find especially engaging and which they do not. We asked 188 undergraduate students at a large university in California to rate twenty-five potential consequences of climate change on several questions. The questions were drawn from constructs that lead to greater engagement with a topic according to the Cognitive Reconstruction of Knowledge Model (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Scores were then combined to create engagement scores. We found that two potential consequences of climate change were rated as more engaging than climate change generally: air pollution and increases in the price of food. Many consequences were rated as less engaging, including floods, stronger hurricanes, and melting permafrost. This implies that some consequences that scientists consider potentially worthy of concern are nonetheless not considered engaging by many. We also asked participants several open-ended questions about their perceptions of climate change and what consequences they especially cared about. Results were broadly similar but demonstrated many misconceptions about the mechanics and consequences of climate change. Several participants expressed concerns about increases in earthquakes, changes to the ozone layer, and dangerous changes to the density of the atmosphere. We asked participants about the relationship between the terms climate change and global warming. There was considerable disagreement on how these two terms were related. This is problematic if educators assume that people are using the terms synonymously. Finally, we asked participants about whether humanity would be able to solve climate change before catastrophic consequences occurred. To our surprise, only one out of five participants believed we would do so. Some participants were unsure whether we would solve it or believed that we would only address it after some catastrophic consequences had already occurred, but the majority of participants believed that we would fail to solve it. Climate science educators have often tried to avoid portraying climate change as unavoidable and hopeless, yet many people have nonetheless come to this conclusion. Relying on positive messages about solving climate change in the hope of forestalling hopelessness may be insufficient and we may need to help people deal with feelings of hopelessness directly.

United States Military Theorists: A Study of Patrons and Interests

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-21

fit. As Jomini contends, a general whose genius and hands are tied by an Aulic council, five hundred miles distant, cannot be a match for one who...marketing of exports, and otherwise promote a business climate conducive to profitable activities.31 This is both a boon and a danger for the United States...broadly enough to attune it to the current climate of foreign policy. This balancing is resident in Cebrowski’s theory with its links to key

``Global Warming/Climate Change'': A Critical Look

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, Laurence I.

2011-11-01

There continues to be an increasing number of scientists from around the world who are challenging the dominant claim that has been bolstered by so-called ``consensus'' scientific views -- that dangerous ``global warming/climate change'' is caused primarily by human-produced carbon dioxide. This poster will show scientific evidence contradicting that claim. It will also explain some of the errors that have been introduced from a corruption of the scientific method. (Further information can be found at http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/lgould/)

Daring the Foolish to Take Darwin Tests: The Ethical Double Bind of Betting On Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halpern, J. B.

2017-12-01

While couched in the framework of concentrating minds betting on natural hazards carries an ethical cost. When children dare each other to do risky things parents know that when such dares are taken harm frequently occurs. Giving those who claim that there is no hazard financial reasons to avoid ameliorative actions or to double down in support of their public stance requires a moral calculation. Challenging the conclusions of those who accept such bets while denying danger will lead them to attempt to save face by increasing risk to themselves or others. Thus such wagers, whether person to person or on betting markets, require balancing between alerting the opposing party and others to the risks of not taking action, the associated scientific consensus and the possible harmful outcomes of the bets themselves. This talk will describe strategies for minimizing potential harm while maximizing the instructive component of climate bets. Best practices include having the bet rest on a technical issue that can be authoritatively resolved in a short time. Unfortunately the nature of natural hazard risks makes it difficult to meet all of these criteria, but those making such bets should be aware of the ethical double bind

Development of urban green space monitoring technique with remote sensing and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gradinaru, Cristian; Herban, Ioan Sorin; Gabor, Cristian

2016-06-01

City is the important area of earth's surface material, energy, and information exchanging; also it is the centre of national, regional political, economic, scientific and cultural aspects. A mere 10% of the global population were urban dwellers in 1900, but that percentage exceeds 50% now (Grimm et al. 2008). With the rapid economic development, city is suffering from a series of serious problems such as air pollution, solid waste pollution, vegetation reduction, deterioration of water quality and living environment. Threats to our environment represent a clear danger in the context of climate change, which is part of the "Global Change", and it is obvious that action is needed right now to protect our quality of life, particularly for those most vulnerable to health threats from environmental and technological disasters. Therefore, our top priority should be to avoid human and material losses. The security area is not only defined by disaster management, but by a wide variety of events that could affect the environment and the population's health. Following the rapid development of urban areas, a present tendency is represented by the study of those factors that place some areas in categories with high risk for natural and anthropic hazard.

The Difficult Gallbladder: A Safe Approach to a Dangerous Problem.

PubMed

Santos, B Fernando; Brunt, L Michael; Pucci, Michael J

2017-06-01

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is a common surgical procedure, and remains the gold standard for the management of benign gallbladder and biliary disease. While this procedure can be technically straightforward, it can also represent one of the most challenging operations facing surgeons. This dichotomy of a routine operation performed so commonly that poses such a hidden risk of severe complications, such as bile duct injury, must keep surgeons steadfast in the pursuit of safety. The "difficult gallbladder" requires strict adherence to the Culture of Safety in Cholecystectomy, which promotes safety first and assists surgeons in managing or avoiding difficult operative situations. This review will discuss the management of the difficult gallbladder and propose the use of subtotal fenestrating cholecystectomy as a definitive option during this dangerous situation.

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

2014-12-01

It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6-30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.

Hunted Woolly Monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii) Show Threat-Sensitive Responses to Human Presence

PubMed Central

Papworth, Sarah; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Slocombe, Katie

2013-01-01

Responding only to individuals of a predator species which display threatening behaviour allows prey species to minimise energy expenditure and other costs of predator avoidance, such as disruption of feeding. The threat sensitivity hypothesis predicts such behaviour in prey species. If hunted animals are unable to distinguish dangerous humans from non-dangerous humans, human hunting is likely to have a greater effect on prey populations as all human encounters should lead to predator avoidance, increasing stress and creating opportunity costs for exploited populations. We test the threat sensitivity hypothesis in wild Poeppigi's woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii) in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, by presenting human models engaging in one of three behaviours “hunting”, “gathering” or “researching”. These experiments were conducted at two sites with differing hunting pressures. Visibility, movement and vocalisations were recorded and results from two sites showed that groups changed their behaviours after being exposed to humans, and did so in different ways depending on the behaviour of the human model. Results at the site with higher hunting pressure were consistent with predictions based on the threat sensitivity hypothesis. Although results at the site with lower hunting pressure were not consistent with the results at the site with higher hunting pressure, groups at this site also showed differential responses to different human behaviours. These results provide evidence of threat-sensitive predator avoidance in hunted primates, which may allow them to conserve both time and energy when encountering humans which pose no threat. PMID:23614003

Contextual Control of Fluid Consumption: The Effects of Context Extinction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, M.; Skinner, D.M.

2005-01-01

Rats were trained on a conditional discrimination task in which saccharin was paired with LiCl in one context but paired with saline in another context. Rats drank less saccharin in the danger context than in the safe context, and consumption in the home cage was intermediate to consumption in the two training contexts. Rats also avoided the…

A Short Guide to U.S. Arms Control Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Norman, Ed.; Sussman, Colleen, Ed.

Steps the United States is taking to lessen the danger of war while building international confidence and security are described. The commitment of the United States to arms control is based on the conviction that the United States and the Soviet Union have a common interest in the avoidance of nuclear war and the survival of the human race. A…

Investigation of land subsidence due to climate changes in surrounding areas of Urmia Lake (located in northwest of Iran) using wavelet coherence analysis of geodetic measurements and methodological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghtased-Azar, K.; Mirzaei, A.; Nankali, H. R.; Tavakoli, F.

2012-04-01

Urmia Lake (salt lake in northwest of Iran) plays a valuable role in environment, wildlife and economy of Iran and the region, and now faces great challenges for survival. The Lake is in immediate and great danger and rapidly going to become salty desert. During the recent years and new heat wave, Iran, like many other countries are experiencing, is faced with relativity reduced rain fall. From a few years ago environment activists warned about potential dangers. Geodetic measurements, e.g., repeated leveling measurements of first order leveling network of Iran and continuous GPS measurements of Iranian Permanent GPS network of Iran (IPGN) showed that there is subsidence in surrounding areas of the lake. This paper investigates the relation between subsidence and climate changing in the area, using the wavelet coherence of the data of permanent GPS stations and daily methodological data. The results show that there is strong coherence between the subsidence phenomena induced by GPS data and climate warming from January 2009 up to end of August 2009. However, relative lake height variations computed from altimetry observations (TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P), Jason-1 and Jason-2/OSTM) confirms maximum evaporation rates of the lake in this period.

Evolutionary escape from the climate dilemma. Comment on "Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Pacheco, Vasconcelos and Santos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavoni, Alessandro

2014-12-01

Jorge M. Pacheco, Vítor V. Vasconcelos and Francisco C. Santos take stock of a growing body of research they have produced in recent years, with the aim of shedding light on whether bottom-up agreements can suffice in promoting the high levels of cooperation needed to avert dangerous climate change [1]. The current state of affairs leave little reason for optimism, given the steady rise in CO2 emissions [2]. The UNFCCC approach to seeking universal participation has thus been called into question, both by some policy makers and by academics who have established pessimistic theoretical predictions concerning the limited ability of international environmental agreements to improve upon what nation states would do in the absence of an agreement. Game theorists have predicted that self-enforcing agreements are likely to comprise only a handful of countries committing to unambitious emission abatement targets [3]. Clearly, this is incompatible with stabilizing CO2 concentrations at levels that significantly constrain the likelihood of dangerous climate change. The question than arises as to whether we can deliver on ambitious abatement targets by leveraging on unilateral action by countries or other sub- or supra-national entities (e.g. cities or blocs). This has recently been analyzed in game-theoretic contexts [4,5], as well as in the governance literature [6], with more optimistic predictions compared to traditional models focusing on overarching agreements.

Does Arctic governance hold the key to achieving climate policy targets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbis, Robert, Jr.; Hayhoe, Katharine

2018-02-01

Arctic feedbacks are increasingly viewed as the wild card in the climate system; but their most unpredictable and potentially dangerous aspect may lie in the human, rather than the physical, response to a warming climate. If Arctic policy is driven by agendas based on domestic resource development, the ensuing oil and gas extraction will ensure the failure of the Paris Agreement. If Arctic energy policy can be framed by the Arctic Council, however, its environmental agenda and fragmented governance structure offers the scientific community a fighting chance to determine the region’s energy future. Connecting Arctic climate science to resource economics via its unique governance structure is one of the most powerful ways the scientific community can protect the Arctic region’s environmental, cultural, and scientific resources, and influence international energy and climate policy.

Seeking Balance in Graduate School: A Realistic Expectation or a Dangerous Dilemma?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brus, Chris Peterson

2006-01-01

With the significant increase in graduate students characterized as nontraditional, challenges associated with balance have become more prominent. The author explores issues of work-life balance, institutional ownership, and the chilly climate, each of which can contribute to negative academic outcomes. (Contains 1 table and 1 figure.)

The Crippler: Frostbite.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller, Rosanne

Part of a series of home literacy readers, written in a conversational style, and widely illustrated, this booklet is directed at the Alaskan environment where the severely cold climate makes frostbite an immediate danger. Frostbite is freezing of the living body. The first symptom is frostnip. Skin becomes red, then white or gray, and it retains…

Risk Management in Adventure Programs with Special Populations: Two Hidden Dangers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stich, Thomas; Gaylor, Michael S.

The paper addresses two significant risk management considerations in conducting an adventure program in a therapeutic setting: the potential hazards of psychiatric medications and psychological emergencies. Focusing on the potential hazards of psychiatric medications, the first section discusses climatic conditions (heat, cold, and sun) and the…

The Ophidia framework: toward cloud-based data analytics for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Sandro; D'Anca, Alessandro; Elia, Donatello; Mancini, Marco; Mariello, Andrea; Mirto, Maria; Palazzo, Cosimo; Aloisio, Giovanni

2015-04-01

The Ophidia project is a research effort on big data analytics facing scientific data analysis challenges in the climate change domain. It provides parallel (server-side) data analysis, an internal storage model and a hierarchical data organization to manage large amount of multidimensional scientific data. The Ophidia analytics platform provides several MPI-based parallel operators to manipulate large datasets (data cubes) and array-based primitives to perform data analysis on large arrays of scientific data. The most relevant data analytics use cases implemented in national and international projects target fire danger prevention (OFIDIA), interactions between climate change and biodiversity (EUBrazilCC), climate indicators and remote data analysis (CLIP-C), sea situational awareness (TESSA), large scale data analytics on CMIP5 data in NetCDF format, Climate and Forecast (CF) convention compliant (ExArch). Two use cases regarding the EU FP7 EUBrazil Cloud Connect and the INTERREG OFIDIA projects will be presented during the talk. In the former case (EUBrazilCC) the Ophidia framework is being extended to integrate scalable VM-based solutions for the management of large volumes of scientific data (both climate and satellite data) in a cloud-based environment to study how climate change affects biodiversity. In the latter one (OFIDIA) the data analytics framework is being exploited to provide operational support regarding processing chains devoted to fire danger prevention. To tackle the project challenges, data analytics workflows consisting of about 130 operators perform, among the others, parallel data analysis, metadata management, virtual file system tasks, maps generation, rolling of datasets, import/export of datasets in NetCDF format. Finally, the entire Ophidia software stack has been deployed at CMCC on 24-nodes (16-cores/node) of the Athena HPC cluster. Moreover, a cloud-based release tested with OpenNebula is also available and running in the private cloud infrastructure of the CMCC Supercomputing Centre.

KSC-2012-6375

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-04

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, hazard avoidance instrumentation it being prepared for installation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6422

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6427

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6424

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6417

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6452

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-13

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – A Huey helicopter tests hazard avoidance instrumentation at the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks using the instrument. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6419

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6425

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6420

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6374

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-04

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6421

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6376

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-04

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a technician installs hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6412

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6414

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6423

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6413

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6373

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-04

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6377

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-04

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a technician tests hazard avoidance instrumentation recently installed on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6416

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6372

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-04

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-6415

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2012-6418

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-05

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, a space agency team installed and tested hazard avoidance instrumentation on a Huey helicopter. Led by the Johnson Space Center and supported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Langley Research Center, the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, laser system provides a planetary lander the ability to precisely land safely on a surface while detecting any dangerous obstacles such as rocks, holes and slopes. Just north of Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility runway, a rock- and crater-filled planetary scape has been built so engineers can test the ability to negotiate away from risks. Photo credit: NASA/Dmitri Gerondidakis

Innate threat-sensitive foraging: black-tailed deer remain more fearful of wolf than of the less dangerous black bear even after 100 years of wolf absence.

PubMed

Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Malcuit, Hélène; Le Saout, Soizic; Martin, Jean-Louis

2014-04-01

Anti-predator behaviors often entail foraging costs, and thus prey response to predator cues should be adjusted to the level of risk (threat-sensitive foraging). Simultaneously dangerous predators (with high hunting success) should engender the evolution of innate predator recognition and appropriate anti-predator behaviors that are effective even upon the first encounter with the predator. The above leads to the prediction that prey might respond more strongly to cues of dangerous predators that are absent, than to cues of less dangerous predators that are actually present. In an applied context this would predict an immediate and stronger response of ungulates to the return of top predators such as wolves (Canis lupus) in many parts of Europe and North America than to current, less threatening, mesopredators. We investigated the existence of innate threat-sensitive foraging in black-tailed deer. We took advantage of a quasi-experimental situation where deer had not experienced wolf predation for ca. 100 years, and were only potentially exposed to black bears (Ursus americanus). We tested the response of deer to the urine of wolf (dangerous) and black bear (less dangerous). Our results support the hypothesis of innate threat-sensitive foraging with clear increased passive avoidance and olfactory investigation of cues from wolf, and surprisingly none to black bear. Prey which have previously evolved under high risk of predation by wolves may react strongly to the return of wolf cues in their environments thanks to innate responses retained during the period of predator absence, and this could be the source of far stronger non-consumptive effects of the predator guild than currently observed.

Automated system for smoke dispersion prediction due to wild fires in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulchitsky, A.; Stuefer, M.; Higbie, L.; Newby, G.

2007-12-01

Community climate models have enabled development of specific environmental forecast systems. The University of Alaska (UAF) smoke group was created to adapt a smoke forecast system to the Alaska region. The US Forest Service (USFS) Missoula Fire Science Lab had developed a smoke forecast system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model including chemistry (WRF/Chem). Following the successful experience of USFS, which runs their model operationally for the contiguous U.S., we develop a similar system for Alaska in collaboration with scientists from the USFS Missoula Fire Science Lab. Wildfires are a significant source of air pollution in Alaska because the climate and vegetation favor annual summer fires that burn huge areas. Extreme cases occurred in 2004, when an area larger than Maryland (more than 25000~km2) burned. Small smoke particles with a diameter less than 10~μm can penetrate deep into lungs causing health problems. Smoke also creates a severe restriction to air transport and has tremendous economical effect. The smoke dispersion and forecast system for Alaska was developed at the Geophysical Institute (GI) and the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center (ARSC), both at University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). They will help the public and plan activities a few days in advance to avoid dangerous smoke exposure. The availability of modern high performance supercomputers at ARSC allows us to create and run high-resolution, WRF-based smoke dispersion forecast for the entire State of Alaska. The core of the system is a Python program that manages the independent pieces. Our adapted Alaska system performs the following steps \\begin{itemize} Calculate the medium-resolution weather forecast using WRF/Met. Adapt the near real-time satellite-derived wildfire location and extent data that are received via direct broadcast from UAF's "Geographic Information Network of Alaska" (GINA) Calculate fuel moisture using WRF forecasts and National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) fuel maps Calculate smoke emission components using a first order fire emission model Model the smoke plume rise yielding a vertically distribution that accounts for one-dimensional (vertical) concentrations of smoke constituents in the atmosphere above the fire Run WRF/Chem at high resolution for the forecast Use standard graphical tools to provide accessible smoke dispersion The system run twice each day at ARSC. The results will be freely available from a dedicated wildfire smoke web portal at ARSC.

Self-efficacy as a mediator of children's achievement motivation and in-class physical activity.

PubMed

Gao, Zan; Lochbaum, Marc; Podlog, Leslie

2011-12-01

The present study was designed to examine the mediating effect of self-efficacy on relations of middle school students' four achievement goals with their perceptions of two motivational climates and in-class physical activity in physical education. The four achievement goals (mastery-approach, mastery-avoidance, performance-approach, and performance-avoidance), perceptions of the motivational climate (mastery- and performance-involving climates), and self-efficacy were measured in a sample of 194 students (93 boys, 101 girls) in a public school. Students' in-class physical activity was assessed using Actical Accelerometers. A series of multiple-regression analyses supported the mediating effect of self-efficacy on the relationships among students' mastery-approach goal, perceived mastery-involving climate, and physical activity.

Siberian and North American Biomass Burning Contributions to the Processes that Influenced the 2008 Arctic Aircraft and Satellite Field Campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Stocks, B. J.; Carr, R.; Pierce, R. B.; Natarajan, M.; Fromm, M.

2009-05-01

Current climate change scenarios predict increases in biomass burning in terms of increases in fire frequency, area burned, fire season length and fire season severity, particularly in boreal regions. Climate and weather control fire danger, which strongly influences the severity of fire events, and these in turn, feed back to the climate system through direct and indirect emissions, modifying cloud condensation nuclei and altering albedo (affecting the energy balance) through vegetative land cover change and deposition. Additionally, fire emissions adversely influence air quality and human health downwind of burning. The boreal zone is significant because this region stores the largest reservoir of terrestrial carbon, globally, and will experience climate change impacts earliest. Boreal biomass burning is an integral component to several of the primary goals of the ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) and ARCPAC (Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate) 2008 field campaigns, which include its implication for atmospheric composition and climate, aerosol radiative forcing, and chemical processes with a focus on ozone and aerosols. Both the spring and summer phases of ARCTAS and ARCPAC offered substantial opportunities for sampling fresh and aged biomass burning emissions. However, the extent to which spring biomass burning influenced arctic haze was unexpected, which could inform our knowledge of the formation of arctic haze and the early deposition of black carbon on the icy arctic surface. There is already evidence of increased extreme fire seasons that correlate with warming across the circumboreal zone. In this presentation, we discuss seasonal and annual fire activity and anomalies that relate to the ARCTAS and ARCPAC spring (April 1 - 20) and summer (June 18 - July 13) periods across Siberia and North America, with particular emphasis on fire danger and fire behavior as they relate to smoke emissions. Fire severity and subsequent emission levels are directly related to fire danger conditions, which reflect and incorporate both antecedent and current weather. In this century, it is predicted that fire regime increases will be the catalyst for ecosystem change, which will force ecosystems to move more rapidly towards a new equilibrium with climate. However, the reasons for ecosystem change are often accompanied by social and political drivers of land cover change, which complicate the relationship between fire and weather. For instance, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, financial support for fire fighting is minimal, communal agricultural lands have been abandoned and a number of species are no longer protected (e.g. Saiga in Kalmykia), and each of these factors strongly influences vegetation cover and fire regimes, leading to a complicated interaction of processes that control fire and its affect on the larger environment.

The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change

PubMed Central

Corry, Olaf

2017-01-01

Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a ‘Plan B’ in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for ‘Plan A’, i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation. PMID:29386754

From Reproduction to Creativity and the Aesthetic: Towards an Ontological Approach to the Assessment of Devised Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fryer, Nic

2010-01-01

In this article I attempt to interrogate some of the issues around the assessment of live work. I use a range of theories, particularly Ranciere's notion of the "aesthetic regime" of art, to suggest a three-pronged ontological approach to assessment that seeks to avoid the dangers of Bourdieu's and Passeron's concept of reproduction, and which…

Cultural Values, U.S. Neighborhood Danger, and Mexican American Parents' Parenting

PubMed Central

White, Rebecca M. B.; Zeiders, Katharine H.; Gonzales, Nancy A.; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Roosa, Mark W.

2013-01-01

To begin accounting for cultural and contextual factors related to child rearing among Mexican American parents we examined whether parents' Mexican American cultural values and perceptions of neighborhood danger influenced patterns of parenting behavior in two-parent Mexican-origin families living in the U.S. To avoid forcing Mexican American parents into a predefined model of parenting styles, we used latent profile analysis to identify unique patterns of responsiveness and demandingness among mothers and fathers. Analyses were conducted using parent self-reports on parenting and replicated with youth reports on mothers' and fathers' parenting. Across reporters most mothers and fathers exhibited a pattern of responsiveness and demandingness consistent with authoritative parenting. A small portion of parents exhibited a pattern of less-involved parenting. None of the patterns were indicative of authoritarianism. There was a modicum of evidence for no nonsense parenting among fathers. Both neighborhood danger and parents' cultural values were associated with the likelihood of employing one style of parenting over another. The value of using person-centered analytical techniques to examine parenting among Mexican Americans is discussed. PMID:23750519

Models and mechanisms of anxiety: evidence from startle studies

PubMed Central

Grillon, Christian

2009-01-01

Rationale Preclinical data indicates that threat stimuli elicit two classes of defensive behaviors, those that are associated with imminent danger and are characterized by avoidance or fight (fear), and those that are associated with temporally uncertain danger and are characterized by sustained apprehension and hypervigilance (anxiety). Objective To 1) review evidence for a distinction between fear and anxiety in animal and human experimental models using the startle reflex as an operational measure of aversive states, 2) describe experimental models of anxiety, as opposed to fear, in humans, 3) examine the relevance of these models to clinical anxiety. Results The distinction between phasic fear to imminent threat and sustained anxiety to temporally uncertain danger is suggested by psychopharmacological and behavioral evidence from ethological studies and can be traced back to distinct neuroanatomical systems, the amygdala and the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis. Experimental models of anxiety, not fear, are relevant to non-phobic anxiety disorders. Conclusions Progress in our understanding of normal and abnormal anxiety is critically dependent on our ability to model sustained aversive states to temporally uncertain threat. PMID:18058089

Enhancing hazard avoidance in teen-novice riders.

PubMed

Vidotto, Giulio; Bastianelli, Alessia; Spoto, Andrea; Sergeys, Filip

2011-01-01

Research suggests that novice drivers' safety performance is inferior to that of experienced drivers in different ways. One of the most critical skills related to accident avoidance by a novice driver is the detection, recognition and reaction to traffic hazards; it is called hazard perception and is defined as the ability to identify potentially dangerous traffic situations. The focus of this research is to assess how far a motorcycle simulator could improve hazard avoidance skills in teenagers. Four hundred and ten participants (207 in the experimental group and 203 in the control group) took part in this research. Results demonstrated that the mean proportion of avoided hazards increases as a function of the number of tracks performed in the virtual training. Participants of the experimental group after the training had a better proportion of avoided hazards than participants of the control group with a passive training based on a road safety lesson. Results provide good evidence that training with the simulator increases the number of avoided accidents in the virtual environment. It would be reasonable to explain this improvement by a higher level of hazard perception skills. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to Curb the Fertility of the Unfit: The Feeble Minded in Edwardian Britain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, David

1983-01-01

Eugenists in Edwardian Great Britain believed that society was in imminent danger because degenerate individuals were outbreeding normal people. Four strategies to prevent the unfit from reproducing--regulation, birth control, sterilization, and segregation--are discussed as well as the political and social climate in which eugenics developed. (IS)

"The Delinquents": Censorship and Youth Culture in Recent U.S. History.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Ronald D.

1997-01-01

Describes the efforts of authorities to respond to the burgeoning youth culture of the 1950s. Details the censorship efforts aimed at those aspects of youth culture (comic books, rock and roll) that were viewed as dangerous and subversive. Identifies these effort within the corresponding social, political, and cultural climate. (MJP)

Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kousky, Carolyn

2016-01-01

We can expect climate change to alter the frequency, magnitude, timing, and location of many natural hazards. For example, heat waves are likely to become more frequent, and heavy downpours and flooding more common and more intense. Hurricanes will likely grow more dangerous, rising sea levels will mean more coastal flooding, and more-frequent and…

75 FR 17799 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-07

... threatened physical danger, severe climatic conditions, civil unrest, terrorism, acts of war, or loss or... June 2008 and June 2009. Those memos described (among other things) the Exchange's various contingency... following methods: Electronic Comments Use the Commission's Internet comment form ( http://www.sec.gov/rules...

Biological control of aflatoxins in Africa: current status and potential challenges in the face of climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aflatoxin contamination of crops is frequent in warm regions across the globe, including large areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Crop contamination with these dangerous toxins transcends health, food security, and trade sectors. It cuts across the value chain, affecting farmers, traders, markets, and fin...

The Costs of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jason

2018-03-01

This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

Big emitting nations and the 2°C target:beyond integrated assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bows-Larkin, Alice; Sharmina, Maria; Kuriakose, Jaise; Anderson, Kevin

2015-04-01

This year, the United Nations Conference of the Parties in Paris is tasked with delivering a land-mark agreement on avoiding the 2°C warming associated with 'dangerous interference with the climate system'. If this happens, it will re-invigorate analyses of how global and national energy systems can deliver the rates of mitigation accompanying the 2°C threshold. Commonly such studies rely on detailed integrated assessment models combining economic and physical relationships to describe climate and energy systems. These allow the user to develop 'feasible' scenarios in terms of technology, infrastructure and efficiency change. This paper reflects upon the reliance of decision makers on the outcomes of these models, and their suitability for producing plausible outcomes. One criticism is how they can explore future societies under the pressures of climate change mitigation and adaptation given that their economic parameterisations are underpinned by historical relationships fit for a world unperturbed by climate change. A second relates to their theoretical basis being appropriate for articulating the outcome of marginal change, when the very futures they are set up to explore involve non-marginal adjustments - very radical cuts in CO2, or severe climate change impacts. Quantifying societal responses within such models is a particular challenge. Finally, these models downplay risks through disregarding low-probability, high-impact events and their consequences, including wars and migration. It is argued here that as currently formulated these tools are unsuitable for modelling the revolutionary transformations necessary to stay within 2°C carbon budgets, or similarly, futures with higher levels of warming and subsequent impacts. To address this deficiency, this paper takes a complementary approach to contextually explore the 'possibility space' appropriate for avoiding 2°C. In contrast to exercises that build future scenarios using 'immutable' relationships within and between the energy and climate systems, a more transparent and dynamic framing based on highly constrained cumulative carbon budgets is proposed. Building on previous assessments that use a similar approach by authors Anderson and Bows, this analysis looks beyond the contested 'Annex 1' and 'non-Annex 1' division to backcast what the remaining CO2 budget implies for the world's top emitting nations. The analysis takes the top 25 nations, responsible for 85% of global CO2, and groups these nations on the basis of similarities within their energy systems. Using a range of explicit variables a suite of scenarios for these groups, as well as the 'rest of the world', 'deforestation' and 'bunker fuel CO2' are then developed, all constrained within a range of 2°C carbon budgets. By varying the levels of near-term emissions from each group's energy system, under a highly constrained CO2 budget, important sensitivities are revealed. Results demonstrate the significance of the coming 1-5 years' levels of emissions of the highest emitting groups and the importance of bunker-fuel emissions in shaping our collective futures. They also illustrate that only non-marginal futures with radical transitions across all energy systems can now be reconciled with the 2°C policy objective.

Perceived safety climate, job demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers.

PubMed

Gillen, Marion; Baltz, Davis; Gassel, Margy; Kirsch, Luz; Vaccaro, Diane

2002-01-01

This study evaluated injured construction workers' perceptions of workplace safety climate, psychological job demands, decision latitude, and coworker support, and the relationship of these variables to the injury severity sustained by the workers. Injury severity was assessed using the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), which evaluates functional limitations. Worker perceptions of workplace variables were determined by two instruments: (a) the Safety Climate Measure for Construction Sites and (b) the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ). The overall model explained 23% of the variance in injury severity, with unique contributions provided by union status, the Safety Climate Score, and Psychological Job Demands. A positive significant correlation was found between injury severity and the Safety Climate Scores (r = .183, P = .003), and between the Safety Climate Scores and union status (r = .225, P < .001). There were statistically significant differences between union and nonunion workers' responses regarding perceived safety climate on 5 of the 10 safety climate items. Union workers were more likely than nonunion workers to: (a) perceive their supervisors as caring about their safety; (b) be made aware of dangerous work practices; (c) have received safety instructions when hired; (d) have regular job safety meetings; and (e) perceive that taking risks was not a part of their job. However, with regard to the 49-item JCQ, which includes Coworker Support, the responses between union and nonunion workers were very similar, indicating an overall high degree of job satisfaction. However, workers who experienced their workplace as more safe also perceived the level of management (r = -.55, P < .001) and coworker (r = -.31, P < .001) support as being higher. The findings of this study underscore the critical need for construction managers to alert workers to dangerous work practices and conditions more frequently, and express concern and praise workers for safe work in a manner that is culturally acceptable in this industry. Workplace interventions that decrease the incidence and severity of injuries, but that are flexible enough to meet a variety of potentially competing imperatives, such as production deadlines and client demands, need to be identified.

Regional climate response collaboratives: Multi-institutional support for climate resilience

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Federal investments by U.S. agencies to enhance climate resilience at regional scales have grown dramatically over the last five years. This leads to questions about how best to leverage existing agency-specific research, infrastructure, and capacity while avoiding redundancy. This article discusses...

Associations among self-concept, verbal behaviors, and group climate early in the group counseling process.

PubMed

Jen Der Pan, Peter; Fan, Ai Chun; Bhat, Christine Suniti; Chang, Shona Shih Hua

2012-12-01

In this study, relations among group members' self-concept, verbal behaviors, and group climate early in the group counseling process were assessed for college students who were randomly assigned to four counseling groups. Based on measures from the hill interaction matrix, it was observed that family, social, and action self-concepts, as well as engagement, avoidance, and conflict group climate, were correlated with several verbal behaviors. Silence and quadrant 4 (Q4), which consists of speculative and confrontative verbal behaviors at personal and relationship levels, significantly predicted and explained 43% of the variance in engagement group climate. Silence and Q3, comprised of conventional and assertive verbal behaviors at personal and relationship levels, and Q1, conventional and assertive verbal behaviors at topic and group levels, explained 66% of variance in avoidance climate. Q4 and Silence explained 33% of conflict climate variance early in the group sessions. Implications for research and counseling practice are suggested.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

The Vulnerability of People to Damaging Hydrogeological Events in the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

PubMed Central

Salvati, Paola; Aceto, Luigi; Bianchi, Cinzia; Pasqua, Angela Aurora; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-01-01

Background: Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning, windstorms, hail or storm surges can harm people. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency/intensity of DHEs and, consequently, the potential harm to people. Method: We investigated the impacts of DHEs on people in Calabria (Italy) over 37 years (1980–2016). Data on 7288 people physically affected by DHEs were gathered from the systematic analysis of regional newspapers and collected in the database named PEOPLE. The damage was codified in three severity levels as follows: fatalities (people who were killed), injured (people who suffered physical harm) and involved (people who were present at the place where an accident occurred but survived and were not harmed). During the study period, we recorded 68 fatalities, 566 injured and 6654 people involved in the events. Results: Males were more frequently killed, injured and involved than females, and females who suffered fatalities were older than males who suffered fatalities, perhaps indicating that younger females tended to be more cautious than same-aged males, while older females showed an intrinsic greater vulnerability. Involved people were younger than injured people and fatalities, suggesting that younger people show greater promptness in reacting to dangerous situations. Floods caused the majority of the fatalities, injured and involved people, followed by landslides. Lightning was the most dangerous phenomenon, and it affected a relatively low number of people, killing 11.63% of them and causing injuries to 37.2%. Fatalities and injuries mainly occurred outdoors, largely along roads. In contrast, people indoors, essentially in public or private buildings, were more frequently involved without suffering harm. Being “dragged by water/mud” and “surrounded by water/mud”, respectively, represented the two extremes of dynamic dangerousness. The dragging effect of rapid-flowing water totally or partially obstructed the attempts of people to save their lives. In contrast, people surrounded by steady water/mud encountered difficulties but ultimately could survive. Conclusions: The study outcomes can be used in informational campaigns to increase risk awareness among both administrators and citizens and to improve community resilience, particularly in promoting self-protective behaviors and avoiding the underestimation of hazardous situations. PMID:29286338

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

Managing Emergency Situations in VANET Through Heterogeneous Technologies Cooperation.

PubMed

Santamaria, Amilcare Francesco; Tropea, Mauro; Fazio, Peppino; De Rango, Floriano

2018-05-08

Nowadays, the research on vehicular computing enhanced a very huge amount of services and protocols, aimed to vehicles security and comfort. The investigation of the IEEE802.11p, Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE) and Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) standards gave to the scientific world the chance to integrate new services, protocols, algorithms and devices inside vehicles. This opportunity attracted the attention of private/public organizations, which spent lot of resources and money to promote vehicular technologies. In this paper, the attention is focused on the design of a new approach for vehicular environments able to gather information during mobile node trips, for advising dangerous or emergency situations by exploiting on-board sensors. It is assumed that each vehicle has an integrated on-board unit composed of several sensors and Global Position System (GPS) device, able to spread alerting messages around the network, regarding warning and dangerous situations/conditions. On-board units, based on the standard communication protocols, share the collected information with the surrounding road-side units, while the sensing platform is able to recognize the environment that vehicles are passing through (obstacles, accidents, emergencies, dangerous situations, etc.). Finally, through the use of the GPS receiver, the exact location of the caught event is determined and spread along the network. In this way, if an accident occurs, the arriving cars will, probably, avoid delay and danger situations.

Managing Emergency Situations in VANET Through Heterogeneous Technologies Cooperation

PubMed Central

Tropea, Mauro; De Rango, Floriano

2018-01-01

Nowadays, the research on vehicular computing enhanced a very huge amount of services and protocols, aimed to vehicles security and comfort. The investigation of the IEEE802.11p, Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE) and Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) standards gave to the scientific world the chance to integrate new services, protocols, algorithms and devices inside vehicles. This opportunity attracted the attention of private/public organizations, which spent lot of resources and money to promote vehicular technologies. In this paper, the attention is focused on the design of a new approach for vehicular environments able to gather information during mobile node trips, for advising dangerous or emergency situations by exploiting on-board sensors. It is assumed that each vehicle has an integrated on-board unit composed of several sensors and Global Position System (GPS) device, able to spread alerting messages around the network, regarding warning and dangerous situations/conditions. On-board units, based on the standard communication protocols, share the collected information with the surrounding road-side units, while the sensing platform is able to recognize the environment that vehicles are passing through (obstacles, accidents, emergencies, dangerous situations, etc.). Finally, through the use of the GPS receiver, the exact location of the caught event is determined and spread along the network. In this way, if an accident occurs, the arriving cars will, probably, avoid delay and danger situations. PMID:29738453

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5 °C warming.

PubMed

Seneviratne, Sonia I; Rogelj, Joeri; Séférian, Roland; Wartenburger, Richard; Allen, Myles R; Cain, Michelle; Millar, Richard J; Ebi, Kristie L; Ellis, Neville; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Payne, Antony J; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Tschakert, Petra; Warren, Rachel F

2018-06-01

The United Nations' Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a '1.5 °C warmer world' may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society's mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

A Guide to Safe Field Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

be dangerous depending on the type of insect and your reaction to their sting or bite. Stinging insects, which include honey bees , killer bees ...and operational policies of the WRD to ensure that (1) their activities avoid or minimize personal injury to the employee, coworkers, or anyone in...assignments with minimal chance of personal injury or infringement on the rights of others. However, once you have received training and have been

Petroleum sludge treatment and reuse for cement production as setting retarder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aeslina, A. K.; Ali, B.

2017-05-01

Petroleum sludge is a dangerous waste that needs to be treated to avoid any contamination of soil and groundwater due to its disposal. As an attempt to treat this waste, it has been incorporated into cement production as substitution for gypsum. As results, 5% of petroleum sludge has shown effective results and could play the same role of gypsum in delaying the flash setting of cement clinker.

Regulatory decision-making under uncertainty: are costs proportionate to benefits when restricting dangerous chemicals on European markets?

PubMed

Brouwer, Roy; Cauchi, Jonathan; Verhoeven, Julia

2014-04-01

Since 2007 regulation 1907/2006/EC concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) is in force in Europe to reduce the adverse effects of hazardous chemical substances on human health and the environment. Implementation of the regulation by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) is supported by a Socio-Economic Analysis (SEA) Committee, consisting of European experts who help prepare ECHA's opinion on proposals for either restricting or authorizing dangerous substances. This paper presents the outcomes of the SEA underlying the first restriction proposals. Member states proposing a restriction have to show that it will reduce the risks to an acceptable level at a cost which is proportionate to the avoided risk. What is considered proportionate is not clearly defined in REACH. The opinion making process is characterized by many uncertainties: the expert group had no previous experiences to fall back on and limited information about the expected costs and benefits of the proposed restrictions. The study provides insight into expert opinions on environmental and health risks under uncertainty in the specific context of REACH. Particular attention is paid to the confidence experts place on the estimated socio-economic benefits of the avoided risks compared to the estimated compliance costs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Living in the danger zone: Exposure to predators and the evolution of spines and body armor in mammals.

PubMed

Stankowich, Theodore; Campbell, Lisa A

2016-07-01

Mammals have independently evolved a wide variety of morphological adaptations for use in avoiding death by predation, including spines, quills, dermal plates, and noxious sprays. Although these traits appear to protect their bearer from predatory attack, it is less obvious why some species evolved them and others have not. We investigated the ecological correlates favoring the evolution of specialized defenses in mammals, focusing on conspicuousness to predators due to body size and openness of habitat. We scored species for the degree to which they are protected by spines, quills, dermal plating, and sprays and used phylogenetic comparative analyses to study the morphological and ecological factors that may favor their evolution. We show that medium-sized insectivorous mammals (∼800 g to 9 kg) that live in open habitats are more likely to possess one of these defensive traits to reduce predation. Smaller species (<200 g) and those in closed habitats can typically rely on crypsis to avoid predators, and larger species (>10 kg) are less susceptible to predation by most small- to medium-sized predators. We discuss how diet, metabolic rate, and defensive strategy evolve in concert to allow species to exploit this ecomorphological "danger zone" niche. © 2016 The Author(s).

Evaluating the potential of reforestation as a mitigative measure for greenhouse gas induced global warming using an energy balance global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starheim, Fred John

The subject of global warming due to the human addition of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere has been the subject of considerable attention and research in the last two decades. The principal GHG of concern related to human influence is carbon dioxide (CO2). Emissions of this gas have grown rapidly since the industrial revolution in response to the energy and agricultural demands of an increasing world population. Concern exists that the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs may rise sufficiently high so as to impose dangerous interference with the climate system. Numerous methods and measures for the sequestration and avoidance of GHGs have been proposed with the object of decreasing the growth and ultimately stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations. The purpose of this work is to examine the effectiveness of one such measure-that of the feasibiltiy of large-scale reforestation/afforestation efforts to mitigate projected global warming. An energy balance global climate model was selected to conduct this work. The model is based on previous work of Pease (1987) in the Annals of the AAG, (77), 450-461, which has been expanded to include dimensions of time and space. The assumed reforestation/afforestation activities are based on a World Resources Institute study by Trexler and Haugen (1995) entitled Keeping it Green Tropical Forest Opportunities for Mitigating Climate Change. The forestry activities are assumed to take place in the tropics where a year-round growing season, plentiful rainfall, and relatively low land development costs should provide the most economically favorable conditions for instituting such a program. The climate model simulations examine the effect of carbon absorption and sequestration in isolation, and then in a subsequent step, examine the combined effect of carbon absorption/sequestration and albedo changes attendant with increased forest cover. Results of the modeling show only small temperature benefits (an approximate 0.1 degree C cooling) associated with implementation of this large-scale reforestation program versus a CO2 doubling case with no forestry programs. Of the approximate 0.1 degree C temperature change, the largest effect was due to CO2 sequestration with the surface albedo effect being negligible (less than 0.01 degree C).

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; ...

2016-08-25

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

Mitigation activities in the forest sector to reduce emissions and enhance sinks of greenhouse gases

Treesearch

Richard Birdsey; Ralph Alig; Darius Adams

2000-01-01

In June 1992, representatives from 172 countries gathered at the "Earth Summit" in Rio de Janeiro to discuss environmental issues. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was adopted to achieve ". . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic...

On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

Treesearch

David M. Bell; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

2016-01-01

Although biogeographic patterns are the product of complex ecological processes, the increasing com-plexity of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) is not always motivated by ecological theory,but by model fit. The validity of model projections, such as shifts in a species’ climatic niche, becomesquestionable particularly during extrapolations, such as for...

Simulation and Optimization Methods for Assessing the Impact of Aviation Operations on the Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chen, Neil; Ng, Hok K.

2010-01-01

There is increased awareness of anthropogenic factors affecting climate change and urgency to slow the negative impact. Greenhouse gases, oxides of Nitrogen and contrails resulting from aviation affect the climate in different and uncertain ways. This paper develops a flexible simulation and optimization software architecture to study the trade-offs involved in reducing emissions. The software environment is used to conduct analysis of two approaches for avoiding contrails using the concepts of contrail frequency index and optimal avoidance trajectories.

Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to the Deployment of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lapsa, Melissa Voss; Brown, Marilyn A.

The United States shares with many other countries the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Many believe that accelerating the pace of technology improvement and deployment could significantly reduce the cost of achieving this goal. The critical role of new technologies is underscored by the fact that most anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted over the next century will come from equipment and infrastructure built in the future. As a result, new technologies and fuels have the potential to transform the nation's energy system whilemore » meeting climate change as well as energy security and other goals.« less

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris.

PubMed

Spindelböck, Joachim P; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-09-01

Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the entire growing season.

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris

PubMed Central

Spindelböck, Joachim P.; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I.; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E.; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Methods Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Key Results Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Conclusions Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the entire growing season. PMID:23884396

The search for knowledge and the avoidance of knowledge.

PubMed

Waska, Robert

2007-01-01

In the psychoanalytic setting, patients can develop a strong reaction to the therapeutic opportunity to gain new knowledge about themselves. This reaction to knowledge is manifested in the patient by walling it off, splitting it off, or attacking it and erasing it from one's internal experience. The avoidance of knowledge can be the result of various phantasy states that bring on defensive postures. Knowledge can be experienced as a persecutory threat to be avoided and defended against. Knowledge can also elicit depressive concerns of loss and separation. Issues of dependence and autonomy can be equated with knowledge and therefore learning must be warded off. As a result of any or all of these internal threats, the ego can instigate a moratorium on thinking and creativity, a shutdown on feeling, thinking, and learning. As will be shown in the case material, wanting to know can be offset by a greater defensive need to not know. Through projective identification cycles, knowledge is placed into the analyst and experienced as dangerous, unobtainable, or a gift one deserves to be given rather than earned. The patient in the case example demonstrates a more paranoid experience of knowledge and a more paranoid avoidance of learning and change. When paranoid phantasies drive the patient to destroy object-relational links between self and analyst, the transference becomes colored with the phantasy of knowledge being equal to dangerous dependence that leads to destruction of either self or object. Therefore, curiosity and learning are to be avoided. Change is no longer a safe option. Psychic change can only occur when past and current knowledge are allowed to be part of the ego's self<-->object world. In other words, Psychic change is possible when the ego is less restrictive and open to new self<-->object experience. Therefore, the ego must tolerate conflicted feelings and thoughts about the self and others for knowledge to be allowable and accessible. This is the core struggle for many patients and must be identified through interpretation of transference and phantasy for gradual working through to become a viable possibility.

Neural architecture of hunger-dependent multisensory decision making in C. elegans

PubMed Central

Ghosh, D. Dipon; Sanders, Tom; Hong, Soonwook; McCurdy, Li Yan; Chase, Daniel L.; Cohen, Netta; Koelle, Michael R.; Nitabach, Michael N.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Little is known about how animals integrate multiple sensory inputs in natural environments to balance avoidance of danger with approach to things of value. Furthermore, the mechanistic link between internal physiological state and threat-reward decision making remains poorly understood. Here we confronted C. elegans worms with the decision whether to cross a hyperosmotic barrier presenting the threat of desiccation to reach a source of food odor. We identified a specific interneuron that controls this decision via top-down extrasynaptic aminergic potentiation of the primary osmosensory neurons to increase their sensitivity to the barrier. We also establish that food deprivation increases the worm’s willingness to cross the dangerous barrier by suppressing this pathway. These studies reveal a potentially general neural circuit architecture for internal state control of threat-reward decision making. PMID:27866800

A mobile phone system to find crosswalks for visually impaired pedestrians

PubMed Central

Shen, Huiying; Chan, Kee-Yip; Coughlan, James; Brabyn, John

2010-01-01

Urban intersections are the most dangerous parts of a blind or visually impaired pedestrian’s travel. A prerequisite for safely crossing an intersection is entering the crosswalk in the right direction and avoiding the danger of straying outside the crosswalk. This paper presents a proof of concept system that seeks to provide such alignment information. The system consists of a standard mobile phone with built-in camera that uses computer vision algorithms to detect any crosswalk visible in the camera’s field of view; audio feedback from the phone then helps the user align him/herself to it. Our prototype implementation on a Nokia mobile phone runs in about one second per image, and is intended for eventual use in a mobile phone system that will aid blind and visually impaired pedestrians in navigating traffic intersections. PMID:20411035

Measuring Perceived Motivational Climate in Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papaioannou, Athanasios G.; Tsigilis, Nikolaos; Kosmidou, Eudoxia; Milosis, Dimitrios

2007-01-01

A new instrument of motivational climate in physical education is presented with the goal of measuring perceptions of teachers' emphasis on mastery, performance-approach, performance-avoidance, and social approval goals. The measure was based on the principle of compatibility, according to which climate perceptions and achievement goals should be…

Science to Action: Thoughts on Convincing a Skeptical Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Press, William

2016-01-01

Acceptance by the public of findings widely accepted by scientists varies dramatically, issue by issue. The danger of smoking, for example, readily achieved public acceptance, while the arguably greater danger of climate change has, thus far, not. What are the relevant variables that make some public issues more difficult than others? A hypothesis consistent with the historical data is that, in communicating to the public, scientists fail to adequately distinguish two different types of messages, the first relating to the nature of scientific evidence, and the second relating to the rational choice of evidence-based decision-making. As scientists we take both for granted, but the public often may not. Different kinds of communication are required for the two different messages.

Nitrogen oxides and methane treatment by non-thermal plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alva, E.; Pacheco, M.; Colín, A.; Sánchez, V.; Pacheco, J.; Valdivia, R.; Soria, G.

2015-03-01

Non thermal plasma was used to treat nitrogen oxides (NOx) and methane (CH4), since they are important constituents of hydrocarbon combustion emissions processes and, both gases, play a key role in the formation of tropospheric ozone. These gases are involved in environmental problems like acid rain and some diseases such as bronchitis and pneumonia. In the case of methane is widely known its importance in the global climate change, and currently accounts for 30% of global warming. There is a growing concern for methane leaks, associated with a rapid expansion of unconventional oil and gas extraction techniques as well as a large-scale methane release from Arctic because of ice melting and the subsequent methane production of decaying organic matter. Therefore, methane mitigation is a key to avoid dangerous levels of global warming. The research, here reported, deals about the generation of non-thermal plasma with a double dielectric barrier (2DBD) at atmospheric pressure with alternating current (AC) for NOx and CH4 treatment. The degradation efficiencies and their respective power consumption for different reactor configurations (cylindrical and planar) are also reported. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of gases degradation are reported before and after treatment with cold plasma. Experimental and theoretical results are compared obtaining good removal efficiencies, superior to 90% and to 20% respectively for NOx and CH4.

Effective Engagement of Hostile Audiences on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denning, S.

2012-12-01

Communicating effectively about climate change can be very frustrating because hostility to climate science is rooted in deeply held beliefs rather than facts. Opposition can be more effectively countered by respecting ideological objections than by aggressive insistence on acceptance of consensus evidence. When presented with a stark choice between sacred beliefs and factual evidence, social science research shows that nearly everyone will choose the latter. Rational argument from authority is often the weakest approach in such situations. Climate change is Simple, Serious, and Solvable. Effective communication of these three key ideas can succeed when the science argument is carefully framed to avoid attack of the audience's ethical identity. Simple arguments from common sense and everyday experience are more successful than data. Serious consequences to values that resonate with the audience can be avoided by solutions that don't threaten those values.

Short-term improvements in public health from global-climate policies on fossil-fuel combustion: an interim report. Working Group on Public Health and Fossil-Fuel Combustion.

PubMed

1997-11-08

Most public-health assessments of climate-control policies have focused on long-term impacts of global change. Our interdisciplinary working group assesses likely short-term impacts on public health. We combined models of energy consumption, carbon emissions, and associated atmospheric particulate-matter (PM) concentration under two different forecasts: business-as-usual (BAU); and a hypothetical climate-policy scenario, where developed and developing countries undertake significant reductions in carbon emissions. We predict that by 2020, 700,000 avoidable deaths (90% CI 385,000-1,034,000) will occur annually as a result of additional PM exposure under the BAU forecasts when compared with the climate-policy scenario. From 2000 to 2020, the cumulative impact on public health related to the difference in PM exposure could total 8 million deaths globally (90% CI 4.4-11.9 million). In the USA alone, the avoidable number of annual deaths from PM exposure in 2020 (without climate-change-control policy) would equal in magnitude deaths associated with human immunodeficiency diseases or all liver diseases in 1995. The mortality estimates are indicative of the magnitude of the likely health benefits of the climate-policy scenario examined and are not precise predictions of avoidable deaths. While characterized by considerable uncertainty, the short-term public-health impacts of reduced PM exposures associated with greenhouse-gas reductions are likely to be substantial even under the most conservative set of assumptions.

Key conclusions from AVOID Work Stream One

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Rachel

2010-05-01

AVOID work stream (WS1)one has produced emission scenarios that simulate potential future global emission pathways for greenhouse gases during the 21st century. The study explored the influence of three key features of such pathways: (1) the year in which emissions peak globally, (2) the rate of emission reduction, and (3) the minimum level to which emissions are eventually reduced. It examined the resultant climate change, climate change impacts and economic implications using computer simulations. Avoided impacts, carbon taxes and GDP change increase throughout the 21st century in the models. AVOID-WS1 showed that in the absence of climate policy it is very likely that global mean temperatures would exceed 3 degrees and there are evens chances that the temperature would rise by 4 degrees relative to pre-industrial times. Scenarios that peak emissions in 2016 were more effective at constraining temperatures to below 3 degrees than those that peaked in 2030: one ‘2016' scenario achieved a probability of 45% of avoiding breaching of a 2 degree threshold. Scenarios peaking in 2030 were inconsistent with constraining temperatures to below 2 degrees. Correspondingly, scenarios that peak in 2030 are more effective at avoiding climate impacts than scenarios that peak in 2016, for all sectors that we studied. Hence the date at which emissions peak is more important than the rate of subsequent emissions reduction in determining the avoided impacts. Avoided impacts increase with time, being negligible in the 2030s, significant by the 2050s and large by the 2080s. Finally, the choice of GCM influences the magnitude of the avoided impacts strongly, so that the uncertainties in our estimates of avoided impacts for each scenario are larger than the difference between the scenarios. Our economic analysis is based on models which differ greatly in the assumptions that they make, but generally show that the date at which emissions peak is a stronger driver of induced GDP changes, and, with some exceptions, carbon taxes, than the rate at which emissions are subsequently reduced. In models which assume perfect rationality and foresight and/or assume the economy to be equilibrium with full employment, then mitigation could cause GDP to decrease. In models which do not make these assumptions, mitigation could cause GDP to increase. In either case the effects are small (a few % of GDP lost or gained in 2100) and insignificant when compared with the 600-1200% increase in global GDP forecast between 2000 and 2100 in the SRES A1B reference scenario used in this study. Estimates of carbon taxes required differ widely between models.

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2013-09-01

While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ˜0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ˜0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

Climate Benefits of Potential Avoided Emissions from Forest Conversion Diminished by Albedo Warming: Comprehensive, Data-Driven Assessment for the US and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. A.; Gu, H.; Jiao, T.

2017-12-01

Avoided deforestation is a leading pathway for climate change mitigation, featuring prominently in many country's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, but its climate benefits remain contested, in part because of reports of large offsetting effects in some regions of the world. It is well known that avoiding forest to non-forest conversion prevents forest carbon release, and sustains forest carbon uptake, but also increases albedo thus diminishing the potency of this mitigation strategy. While the mechanisms are known, their relative importance and the resulting climate benefit remain unclear. This is in part due to a lack of quantitative assessments documenting geographic variation in rates of forest conversion, associated carbon emissions, resulting radiative forcing, and the magnitude of simultaneous albedo offsets. This study (i) quantifies the current rate of forest conversion and carbon release in the United States with Landsat remote sensing and a carbon assessment framework, and (ii) compares this to quantitative estimates of the radiative forcing from the corresponding albedo change. Albedo radiative forcing is assessed with a recently-generated, global atlas of land-cover-specific albedos derived from a fusion of MODIS and Landsat reflectances, combined with snow cover and solar radiation datasets. We document the degree to which albedo warming offsets carbon cooling from contemporary forest conversions taking place in different regions of the United States and identify the underlying drivers of spatial variability. We then extend this to other regions of the world where forests are under threat and where avoided deforestation is viewed as a primary tool for climate mitigation. Results shed light on the, at times contentious, debate about the efficacy of forest protection as a mitigation mechanism.

Obstacle detection and avoiding of quadcopter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dizhong; Lin, Jiajian

2017-10-01

Recent years, the flight control technology over quadcopter has been boosted vigorously and acquired the comprehensive application in a variety of industries. However, it is prominent for there to be problems existed in the stable and secure flight with the development of its autonomous flight. Through comparing with the characteristics of ultrasonic ranging and laser Time-of-Flight(abbreviated to ToF) distance as well as vision measurement and its related sensors, the obstacle detection and identification sensors need to be installed in order to effectively enhance the safety flying for aircraft, which is essential for avoiding the dangers around the surroundings. That the major sensors applied to objects perception at present are distance measuring instruments which based on the principle and application of non-contact detection technology . Prior to acknowledging the general principles of flight and obstacle avoiding, the aerodynamics modeling of the quadcopter and its object detection means has been initially determined on this paper. Based on such premise, this article emphasized on describing and analyzing the research on obstacle avoiding technology and its application status, and making an expectation for the trend of its development after analyzing the primary existing problems concerning its accuracy object avoidance.

Knowledge, attitudes, and behavior in avoiding secondhand smoke exposure among non-smoking employed women with higher education in Jordan.

PubMed

Gharaibeh, Huda; Haddad, Linda; Alzyoud, Sukaina; El-Shahawy, Omar; Baker, Nesrin Abu; Umlauf, Mary

2011-11-01

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is a serious public health threat worldwide; in the developing world there are less serious efforts towards controlling women's and children's exposure to SHS. Knowledge, attitudes and avoidance practices among Jordanian women have never been thoroughly studied. The purpose of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and avoidance behavior towards SHS exposure among employed Jordanian women with higher education. A survey was conducted among employed Jordanian women at two universities. A total of 209 women were included in the analysis. Two questionnaires regarding SHS exposure were used to measure knowledge, attitudes and avoidance practices. Most respondents were regularly exposed to SHS in various locations during daily life, even though they were very knowledgeable about the dangers of SHS exposure for women and children. However, the subject's attitudes and avoidance behavior did not reflect the level of knowledge about SHS risks. The results suggests there is a large discrepancy between SHS exposure, knowledge, attitudes and avoidance behavior among highly educated Jordanian women that is likely influenced by culture and traditional gender roles. Public health initiatives are needed in Jordan to address public policy, institutional practices and to empowerment of women to reduce SHS exposure.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Behavior in Avoiding Secondhand Smoke Exposure Among Non-Smoking Employed Women with Higher Education in Jordan

PubMed Central

Gharaibeh, Huda; Haddad, Linda; Alzyoud, Sukaina; El-Shahawy, Omar; Baker, Nesrin Abu; Umlauf, Mary

2011-01-01

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is a serious public health threat worldwide; in the developing world there are less serious efforts towards controlling women’s and children’s exposure to SHS. Knowledge, attitudes and avoidance practices among Jordanian women have never been thoroughly studied. The purpose of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and avoidance behavior towards SHS exposure among employed Jordanian women with higher education. Methods A survey was conducted among employed Jordanian women at two universities. A total of 209 women were included in the analysis. Two questionnaires regarding SHS exposure were used to measure knowledge, attitudes and avoidance practices. Results Most respondents were regularly exposed to SHS in various locations during daily life, even though they were very knowledgeable about the dangers of SHS exposure for women and children. However, the subject’s attitudes and avoidance behavior did not reflect the level of knowledge about SHS risks. The results suggests there is a large discrepancy between SHS exposure, knowledge, attitudes and avoidance behavior among highly educated Jordanian women that is likely influenced by culture and traditional gender roles. Public health initiatives are needed in Jordan to address public policy, institutional practices and to empowerment of women to reduce SHS exposure. PMID:22163203

Office gossip: a surprising source of liability.

PubMed

Gregg, Robert E

2003-01-01

Rumors and gossip are inevitable ingredients of work life. Within limits, they may have some beneficial functions. Still, practitioners and managers must be aware of the dangers inherent in defamation of character and harassment. This article defines workplace comments and activities that should be avoided and the employer's legal liability when situations get out of hand. It also outlines the manager's responsibilities and lists privacy rights that are codified by state and federal laws.

Virtual reality for mine safety training.

PubMed

Filigenzi, M T; Orr, T J; Ruff, T M

2000-06-01

Mining has long remained one of America's most hazardous occupations. Researchers believe that by developing realistic, affordable VR training software, miners will be able to receive accurate training in hazard recognition and avoidance. In addition, the VR software will allow miners to follow mine evacuation routes and safe procedures without exposing themselves to danger. This VR software may ultimately be tailored to provide training in other industries, such as the construction, agricultural, and petroleum industries.

JPRS Report, Near East and South Asia.

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-03

homeland and because of the effect this will have— the unification of national interests and goals, which can be considered the primary pillar in the...avoiding negative social and economic effects from the employment of foreign workers and the danger that their continued presence poses to our values and...8217 words that are intended for domestic consumption and that talk of liberation, of the strategic balance and so forth—the masses have realized the

Study on real-time elevator brake failure predictive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jun; Fan, Jinwei

2013-10-01

This paper presented a real-time failure predictive system of the elevator brake. Through inspecting the running state of the coil by a high precision long range laser triangulation non-contact measurement sensor, the displacement curve of the coil is gathered without interfering the original system. By analyzing the displacement data using the diagnostic algorithm, the hidden danger of the brake system can be discovered in time and thus avoid the according accident.

Organisational sources of safety and danger: sociological contributions to the study of adverse events

PubMed Central

West, E.

2000-01-01

Organisational sociology has long accepted that mistakes of all kinds are a common, even normal, part of work. Medical work may be particularly prone to error because of its complexity and technological sophistication. The results can be tragic for individuals and families. This paper describes four intrinsic characteristics of organisations that are relevant to the level of risk and danger in healthcare settings—namely, the division of labour and "structural secrecy" in complex organisations; the homophily principle and social structural barriers to communication; diffusion of responsibility and the "problem of many hands"; and environmental or other pressures leading to goal displacement when organisations take their "eyes off the ball". The paper argues that each of these four intrinsic characteristics invokes specific mechanisms that increase danger in healthcare organisations but also offer the possibility of devising strategies and behaviours to increase patient safety. Stated as hypotheses, these ideas could be tested empirically, thus adding to the evidence on which the avoidance of adverse events in healthcare settings is based and contributing to the development of theory in this important area. (Quality in Health Care 2000;9:120–126) Key Words: organisation; safety; errors; adverse events PMID:11067250

Cultural values, U.S. neighborhood danger, and Mexican American parents' parenting.

PubMed

White, Rebecca M B; Zeiders, Katharine H; Gonzales, Nancy A; Tein, Jenn-Yun; Roosa, Mark W

2013-06-01

To begin accounting for cultural and contextual factors related to child rearing among Mexican American parents we examined whether parents' Mexican American cultural values and perceptions of neighborhood danger influenced patterns of parenting behavior in two-parent Mexican-origin families living in the U.S. To avoid forcing Mexican American parents into a predefined model of parenting styles, we used latent profile analysis to identify unique patterns of responsiveness and demandingness among mothers and fathers. Analyses were conducted using parent self-reports on parenting and replicated with youth reports on mothers' and fathers' parenting. Across reporters, most mothers and fathers exhibited a pattern of responsiveness and demandingness consistent with authoritative parenting. A small portion of parents exhibited a pattern of less-involved parenting. None of the patterns were indicative of authoritarianism. There was a modicum of evidence for no nonsense parenting among fathers. Both neighborhood danger and parents' cultural values were associated with the likelihood of employing one style of parenting over another. The value of using person-centered analytical techniques to examine parenting among Mexican Americans is discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger

PubMed Central

Parry, Martin; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Livermore, Matthew

2005-01-01

This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a ‘business-as-usual’ climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing. PMID:16433098

An Avoidance-Based Rodent Model of Exposure With Response Prevention Therapy for Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Romaguera, Jose; Greenberg, Benjamin D; Rasmussen, Steven A; Quirk, Gregory J

2016-10-01

Obsessive-compulsive disorder is treated with exposure with response prevention (ERP) therapy, in which patients are repeatedly exposed to compulsive triggers but prevented from expressing their compulsions. Many compulsions are an attempt to avoid perceived dangers, and the intent of ERP is to extinguish compulsions. Patients failing ERP therapy are candidates for deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the ventral capsule/ventral striatum, which facilitates patients' response to ERP therapy. An animal model of ERP would be useful for understanding the neural mechanisms of extinction in obsessive-compulsive disorder. Using a platform-mediated signaled avoidance task, we developed a rodent model of ERP called extinction with response prevention (Ext-RP), in which avoidance-conditioned rats are given extinction trials while blocking access to the avoidance platform. Following 3 days of Ext-RP, rats were tested with the platform unblocked to evaluate persistent avoidance. We then assessed if pharmacologic inactivation of lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC) or DBS of the ventral striatum reduced persistent avoidance. Following Ext-RP training, most rats showed reduced avoidance at test (Ext-RP success), but a subset persisted in their avoidance (Ext-RP failure). Pharmacologic inactivation of lOFC eliminated persistent avoidance, as did DBS applied to the ventral striatum during Ext-RP. DBS of ventral striatum has been previously shown to inhibit lOFC activity. Thus, activity in lOFC, which is known to be hyperactive in obsessive-compulsive disorder, may be responsible for impairing patients' response to ERP therapy. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating County-Level Heat Vulnerability and Social Inequity in the United States through Climate and Socioeconomic Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2016-12-01

Climate change will have many impacts on human health, perhaps most directly through extreme heat. High temperature and humidity combinations inhibit the body's ability to cool through physiological responses such as sweating. In conjunction with extended periods of extreme heat and shifted seasonality, these conditions are particularly dangerous. Current research and literature can be used to show where dangerous heat and humidity conditions are likely to be most prevalent, or where populations vulnerable to heat stress reside. To provide a better assessment of overall heat vulnerability, however, many complex factors, such as relative changes in temperature patterns or local socioeconomic conditions, must also be considered. Here, we utilize a multivariate approach to establish county-level risk scores by combining the most relevant indicators for heat vulnerability with climate model projections of wet bulb globe temperature, a metric useful for understanding how the human body will respond to conditions of high heat and humidity. We present our findings as an ESRI ArcOnline Story Map with data aggregated at the county-level in the continental United States. This format allows users to access maps showing each county's score in four categories related to heat vulnerability: heat and humidity hazards, population vulnerability, medical access, and physical infrastructure. A final map showcases a composite heat vulnerability score for each county, with comparisons to state and national averages. Our tool, part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, is presented as a series of maps with a normalized scoring system to provide clear and easy access to the indicators most relevant to evaluating heat vulnerability at a local level. Ultimately, this readily available tool with general indices helps community decision makers communicate heat vulnerability and identify which resilience factors are most critical to improving local resilience.

Black Carbon and Kerosene Lighting: An Opportunity for Rapid Action on Climate Change and Clean Energy for Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Arne; Bond, Tami C.; Lam, Nicholoas L.

2013-04-15

Replacing inefficient kerosene lighting with electric lighting or other clean alternatives can rapidly achieve development and energy access goals, save money and reduce climate warming. Many of the 250 million households that lack reliable access to electricity rely on inefficient and dangerous simple wick lamps and other kerosene-fueled light sources, using 4 to 25 billion liters of kerosene annually to meet basic lighting needs. Kerosene costs can be a significant household expense and subsidies are expensive. New information on kerosene lamp emissions reveals that their climate impacts are substantial. Eliminating current annual black carbon emissions would provide a climate benefitmore » equivalent to 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide reductions over the next 20 years. Robust and low-cost technologies for supplanting simple wick and other kerosene-fueled lamps exist and are easily distributed and scalable. Improving household lighting offers a low-cost opportunity to improve development, cool the climate and reduce costs.« less

Early action on HFCs mitigates future atmospheric change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-11-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 K at 80 hPa. The HFC mitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Early Action on Hfcs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-01-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying theUNFCCCParis Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid- 21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 Kat 80 hPa. The HFCmitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Dangerous Near-Earth Asteroids and Meteorites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mickaelian, A. M.; Grigoryan, A. E.

2015-07-01

The problem of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs; Astreoids and Meteorites) is discussed. To have an understanding on the probablity of encounters with such objects, one may use two different approaches: 1) historical, based on the statistics of existing large meteorite craters on the Earth, estimation of the source meteorites size and the age of these craters to derive the frequency of encounters with a given size of meteorites and 2) astronomical, based on the study and cataloging of all medium-size and large bodies in the Earth's neighbourhood and their orbits to estimate the probability, angles and other parameters of encounters. Therefore, we discuss both aspects and give our present knowledge on both phenomena. Though dangerous NEOs are one of the main source for cosmic catastrophes, we also focus on other possible dangers, such as even slight changes of Solar irradiance or Earth's orbit, change of Moon's impact on Earth, Solar flares or other manifestations of Solar activity, transit of comets (with impact on Earth's atmosphere), global climate change, dilution of Earth's atmosphere, damage of ozone layer, explosion of nearby Supernovae, and even an attack by extraterrestrial intelligence.

The debate about acclimatization in the Dutch East Indies (1840-1860).

PubMed Central

de Knecht-van Eekelen, A.

2000-01-01

Around the middle of the nineteenth century, conflicting views were put forward on the influence of climate on health and disease in the Dutch East Indies. In this part of the world, old Hippocratic ideas influenced views on the cause of disease much longer than in the Netherlands. Moreover, Brunonian theories--which had been discarded in the Netherlands--fitted the discussion about the effect of temperature on the body. Additionally, scientific medicine was introduced. Scientific methods, such as the collection of meteorological and statistical data, were promoted by a small group of military health officers. However, the use of scientific data did not guarantee a clear-cut opinion on the causes of disease. Numbers proved as disputable as other, less objective, medical observations. Mortality statistics and numbers of patients especially were used as arguments in various discussions. The example of Bosch, who changed his views on the dangers of tropical climate, demonstrates that statistics could be used for different purposes. At first, in his position as General Inspector, he used them as an argument to provide better care for the military personnel; later, when retired and a civilian, he used them as justification for colonization in relation to an intended improvement of the living conditions of the natives. The dangers of tropical climate for the health of Europeans were played down as soon as other--primarily economic--motives for living in the tropics became strong enough. PMID:11769938

[Forest fire risk assessment for China under different climate scenarios.

PubMed

Tian, Xiao Rui; Dai, Xuan; Wang, Ming Yu; Zhao, Feng Jun; Shu, Li Fu

2016-03-01

Forest fire risk depends on the hazard factors, affected body, and hazard prevention and reduction ability. The integrated risk assessment is the foundation for developing scientific fire mana-gement policies and carrying out the forest fire prevention measures. A forest fire risk assessment model and index system were established based on the classic natural disaster risk model and available data, and the model was used to assess the forest fire risks in past and future. The future climate scenario data included outputs from five global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Each component index of Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was calculated daily for each grid in 1987-2050 for the historical observations and future climate scenarios according to the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation. The results showed that areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 1987-2010 accounted for 21.2% and 6.2%, respectively, which were distributed in Greater Xing'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain area, most parts of Yunnan, and many fragment areas in southern China. The areas with high and very high burn possibilities were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest region, accounting for 13.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared with the observation period, the areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 2021-2050 would increase by 0.6%, 5.5%, 2.3%, and 3.5% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, and North China would show significant increase. The regions with high-risk forest fires would also increase due to climate change, with the most significant increase under RCP 8.5 scenario (+1.6%).

The Psychohistory of Climate Change: A Clear and Present Danger.

PubMed

Adams, Kenneth Alan

2016-01-01

The inability of contemporary society to transition from fossil fuels to green energy was engineered by the oil industry, which has worked for decades to stifle the emergence of ecological awareness. Climate change presents a clear and present danger to our society. The present dilemma is the result of the psychopathic corporate system, that pillages the earth for profit (extractivism), evades the real costs of production (externalizing costs), and pursues only self-interest (the best interests of the corporation). The well-being of the environment is thereby sacrificed for profit and our collective future is jeopardized. The corporate practice of creative destruction has gained such Thanatos-like momentum that it threatens the earth in its obsession with profit. Conservatives, under the sway of the unreality principle, dismiss climate change and block efforts to solve climate issues. For them, science is wish fulfillment based on denial. Their willingness to endanger the world results from their authoritarian upbringing. The corporal punishment they endured as children left a residue of rage—the impulse to destroy life—that underlies corporate rationality’s assault on the environment. Fearing death, they inflict death in a perverse ritual to feel alive. Compensating for the narcissistic wounds of childhood through the formation of a grandiose self, they are identified with the omnipotent parent, and alternate between suicidal impulse and escape via godlike technology. Conservative attacks on women highlight the residual wounds of relatedness to their dragon mothers, just as their relatedness to the environment involves a restaging of their encounters with their breast and toilet mothers. Solving environmental problems, however, will require more than overcoming conservative intransigence. The concept of ecological debt accentuates the importance of consumer choice for the environment. The United Nations Human Development Report 2015 regarding CO2 emissions demonstrates the massive environmental debt of Northern Hemisphere societies and suggests the magnitude of the transformation necessary to resolve the problem of climate change.

From normal fear to pathological anxiety.

PubMed

Rosen, J B; Schulkin, J

1998-04-01

In this article the authors address how pathological anxiety may develop from adaptive fear states. Fear responses (e.g., freezing, startle, heart rate and blood pressure changes, and increased vigilance) are functionally adaptive behavioral and perceptual responses elicited during danger to facilitate appropriate defensive responses that can reduce danger or injury (e.g., escape and avoidance). Fear is a central motive state of action tendencies subserved by fear circuits, with the amygdala playing a central role. Pathological anxiety is conceptualized as an exaggerated fear state in which hyperexcitability of fear circuits that include the amygdala and extended amygdala (i.e., bed nucleus of the stria terminalis) is expressed as hypervigilance and increased behavioral responsivity to fearful stimuli. Reduced thresholds for activation and hyperexcitability in fear circuits develop through sensitization- or kindling-like processes that involve neuropeptides, hormones, and other proteins. Hyperexcitability in fear circuits is expressed as pathological anxiety that is manifested in the various anxiety disorders.

The Dangers of Electrosurgical Smoke to Operating Room Personnel: A Review.

PubMed

Bree, Kevin; Barnhill, Spencer; Rundell, William

2017-11-01

A 2007 study in the United Kingdom showed that three of 98 surgeons surveyed admitted using dedicated smoke extractors; 72% of respondents believed inadequate precautions were in place to protect staff from the potential dangers of electrosurgical smoke. Surgical smoke contains harmful chemicals (e.g., hydrogen cyanide, acetylene, and butadiene) that can circumvent standard masks used in the operating room (OR). In addition, bacteria and viruses can be transmitted through this smoke. The topic of electrosurgical smoke is important to occupational health nurses not only because of their responsibility to protect workers, but also because they, like other health care providers, may be exposed to smoke routinely. The authors of this review recommend the regular use of smoke evacuation in ORs and avoidance of electrosurgery whenever possible to protect OR personnel from the potential long-term harmful effects of electrosurgical smoke.

Personal Safety in Dangerous Places

PubMed Central

Williams, Terry; Dunlap, Eloise; Johnson, Bruce D.; Hamid, Ansley

2009-01-01

Personal safety during fieldwork is seldom addressed directly in the literature. Drawing from many prior years of ethnographic research and from field experience while studying crack distributors in New York City, the authors provide a variety of strategies by which ethnographic research can be safely conducted in dangerous settings. By projecting an appropriate demeanor, ethnographers can seek others for protector and locator roles, routinely create a safety zone in the field, and establish compatible field roles with potential subjects. The article also provides strategies for avoiding or handling sexual approaches, common law crimes, fights, drive-by shootings, and contacts with the police. When integrated with other standard qualitative methods, ethnographic strategies help to ensure that no physical harm comes to the field-worker and other staff members. Moreover, the presence of researchers may actually reduce (and not increase) potential and actual violence among crack distributors/abusers or others present in the field setting. PMID:19809525

Bioethics and the newspapers.

PubMed

Evans, M

1999-04-01

Many bioethics questions are resistant to journalistic exploration on account of their inherently philosophical dimensions. Such dimensions are ill-suited to what we may term the internal goods (in MacIntyre's sense) of the newspapers and mass media generally, which constrain newspaper coverage to an abbreviated form of narrative that, whilst not in itself objectionable, is nonetheless inimical to the conduct of philosophical reflection. The internal goods of academic bioethics, by contrast, include attention to philosophical questions inherent in bioethical issues and value-enquiry. The danger for bioethics is that its agenda for reflective enquiry will, if dictated by this abbreviated narrative, be distorted in terms of both range and priorities, to the inevitable neglect of questions having a philosophical dimension to them. This danger can be avoided by a constructive partnership between the media and academic bioethics. The success of this partnership relies on four suggested provisos, for the meeting of which both journalists and academics bear responsibility.

Evolutionary aspects of anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Price, John S

2003-09-01

DANGER AND HARM ARE AVOIDED BY STRATEGIC DECISIONS MADE AT ALL THREE LEVELS OF THE TRIUNE FOREBRAIN: rational (neomammalian), emotional (paleomammalian), and instinctive (reptilian). This applies also to potential harm from conspecifics, which leads to a choice between escalating and de-escalating strategies. Anxiety is a component of de-escalating strategies mediated by the paleomammalian and reptilian forebrains. When the neomammalian (rational) brain fails to deal with the threat of conspecific danger, these more primitive de-escalating strategies may be activated and may present as anxiety disorders. The capacity for concealment of anxiety and other forms of negative affect has also evolved, and excessive concealment may lead to psychopaihology by breaking the negative feedback loop of excessive motivation, leading to impaired performance, leading to signals of distress, and leading to reduced exhortation to succeed on the part of parents and teachers; this situation is illustrated by a model based on the Yerkes-Dodson law.

Evolutionary aspects of anxiety disorders

PubMed Central

Price, John S.

2003-01-01

Danger and harm are avoided by strategic decisions made at all three levels of the triune forebrain: rational (neomammalian), emotional (paleomammalian), and instinctive (reptilian). This applies also to potential harm from conspecifics, which leads to a choice between escalating and de-escalating strategies. Anxiety is a component of de-escalating strategies mediated by the paleomammalian and reptilian forebrains. When the neomammalian (rational) brain fails to deal with the threat of conspecific danger, these more primitive de-escalating strategies may be activated and may present as anxiety disorders. The capacity for concealment of anxiety and other forms of negative affect has also evolved, and excessive concealment may lead to psychopaihology by breaking the negative feedback loop of excessive motivation, leading to impaired performance, leading to signals of distress, and leading to reduced exhortation to succeed on the part of parents and teachers; this situation is illustrated by a model based on the Yerkes-Dodson law. PMID:22033473

Context-dependent activation of reduced autobiographical memory specificity as an avoidant coping style.

PubMed

Debeer, Elise; Raes, Filip; Williams, J Mark G; Hermans, Dirk

2011-12-01

According to the affect-regulation hypothesis (Williams et al., 2007), reduced autobiographical memory specificity (rAMS) or overgeneral memory (OGM) might be considered a cognitive avoidance strategy; that is, people learn to avoid the emotionally painful consequences associated with the retrieval of specific negative memories. Based on this hypothesis, one would predict significant negative associations between AMS and avoidant coping. However, studies investigating this prediction have led to equivocal results. In the present study we tested a possible explanation for these contradictory findings. It was hypothesized that rAMS (in part) reflects an avoidant coping strategy, which might only become apparent under certain conditions, that is, conditions that signal the possibility of 'danger.' To test this hypothesis, we assessed AMS and behavioral avoidance but experimentally manipulated the instructions. In the neutral condition, two parallel versions of the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT) were presented under neutral instructions. In the threat condition, the first AMT was presented under neutral instructions, while the second AMT was presented under 'threat instructions.' Results showed no significant correlations between avoidance and OGM under neutral conditions but significant and markedly stronger correlations under threat conditions, with more avoidance being associated with fewer specific and more categoric memories. In addition, high avoiders showed a stronger reduction in AMS in the threat condition as compared with the neutral condition, while low avoiders showed no such difference between conditions. The data confirm that OGM can be considered as part of a broader avoidant coping style. However, more importantly, they show that, at least in nonclinical individuals, the activation of this coping style may depend on the context. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Climate change and security.

PubMed

Rogers, Paul

2009-04-01

Climate change was originally expected to have its main impact on countries in temperate latitudes which, because of their relative wealth, would be best able to cope. It is now far more likely that much poorer states in the tropics and sub-tropics will experience severe impacts. This is compounded by the widening socioeconomic divide and the combination of these divisions, with environmental constraints, will have a profound impact on human security. The dangerous response to the prospects of mass migration and radical social movements is to attempt to maintain control without addressing underlying problems. Instead, there is an urgent need to embrace new concepts of sustainable security.

Psychological research and global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

2015-07-01

Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

[Biology on Clipperton Islet or the consequences on survival by a lack of balance in an ecosystem (author's transl)].

PubMed

Taxit, R

1981-01-01

Alone amid the wide Pacific Ocean, Clipperton islet is an extreme case of survival on an atoll or a desert island. With such an environment damageable to man, the understanding of it is a main component of survival. Thus, the major part of the dangers can be avoided and on the motherland all the necessary parts to a long-lasting survival can be met with.

No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity along with mitigated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, T. J.

2011-04-01

In a prior study (Garrett, 2011), I introduced a simple thermodynamics-based economic growth model. By treating civilization as a whole, it was found that the global economy's current rate of energy consumption can be tied through a constant to its current accumulation of wealth. The value of the constant is λ = 9.7 ± 0.3 milliwatts per 1990 US dollar. Here, this model is coupled to a linear formulation for the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Despite the model's extreme simplicity, multi-decadal hindcasts of trajectories in gross world product (GWP) and CO2 agree closely with recent observations. Extending the model to the future, the model implies that the well-known IPCC SRES scenarios substantially underestimate how much CO2 levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity. Instead, what is shown is that, like a long-term natural disaster, future greenhouse warming should be expected to retard the real growth of wealth through inflationary pressures. Because wealth is tied to rates of energy consumption through the constant λ, it follows that dangerous climate change should be a negative feedback on CO2 emission rates, and therefore the ultimate extent of greenhouse warming. Nonetheless, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations are to remain below a "dangerous" level of 450 ppmv (Hansen et al., 2007), there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization and a near immediate collapse of civilization wealth. Effectively, civilization is in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the danger is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse.

Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, C. Y.; Chien, Y. Y.; Su, C. J.

2017-12-01

This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH), during in the past four decades (1971-2010). According to data available, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003-2012) and simulated under the projected warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in number of HW days in all three cities but also the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW captures well the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003-2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ³ 31 °C). Even the median WBGT in TC and KH (30.91°C and 30.88°C, respectively), are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Zeng, N.; Yoon, J.-H.

2010-05-01

Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May-September) reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10-15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry season rainfall, which is when fire danger reaches its peak. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence as a result of deforestation and land use, added pressure to the region's ecosystems from climate change may subject the region to profound changes in the 21st century.

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline from 2015 (CAN International 2014), and if policy makers are limited to the IPCC AR5 we recommend RCP2.6, with emissions declining by 2020.

An aid to streamlining fire-weather station networks

Treesearch

R. William Furman

1975-01-01

For reasons of economy it may be necessary to close one or several fire-weather stations in a protection area. Since it is logical to close those stations that will have the least impact on the ability of the fire manager to assess overall fire danger, it is desirable to know if there is duplication in monitoring fire climate, and to what degree. A method is proposed...

The Science of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makundi, Willy R.

2002-09-20

What constitutes 'dangerous anthropogenic interference' is a value judgment arrived at through a socio-political process, taking issues like equity and sustainability into account. Science provides key information needed to arrive at an informed judgment. However, that judgment is primarily a political one, and not a purely scientific decision. Such judgments are based on risk assessment, and lead to risk management choices by decision makers, about actions and policies.

At the Eye of the Storm: An Academic('s) Experience of Moral Panic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sikes, Pat

2008-01-01

The climate of moral panic that pertains around child abuse is such that any research that touches on children and sex is almost seen in itself to be abusive, with identity and career consequences for those who engage in it. In November 2005, an article that I had written some years earlier, "Scandalous Stories and Dangerous Liaisons: When Female…

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

Predictive Validity of Explicit and Implicit Threat Overestimation in Contamination Fear

PubMed Central

Green, Jennifer S.; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

We examined the predictive validity of explicit and implicit measures of threat overestimation in relation to contamination-fear outcomes using structural equation modeling. Undergraduate students high in contamination fear (N = 56) completed explicit measures of contamination threat likelihood and severity, as well as looming vulnerability cognitions, in addition to an implicit measure of danger associations with potential contaminants. Participants also completed measures of contamination-fear symptoms, as well as subjective distress and avoidance during a behavioral avoidance task, and state looming vulnerability cognitions during an exposure task. The latent explicit (but not implicit) threat overestimation variable was a significant and unique predictor of contamination fear symptoms and self-reported affective and cognitive facets of contamination fear. On the contrary, the implicit (but not explicit) latent measure predicted behavioral avoidance (at the level of a trend). Results are discussed in terms of differential predictive validity of implicit versus explicit markers of threat processing and multiple fear response systems. PMID:24073390

The Return of the Blue Butterfly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Anabela

2014-05-01

The Return of the Blue Butterfly The English writer Charles Dickens once wrote: "I only ask to be free. The butterflies are free". But are they really? The work that I performed with a group of students from 8th grade, had a starting point of climate change and the implications it has on ecosystems. Joining the passion I have for butterflies, I realized that they are also in danger of extinction due to these climatic effects. Thus, it was easy to seduce my students wanting to know more. Luckily I found Dr. Paula Seixas Arnaldo, a researcher at the University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, who has worked on butterflies and precisely investigated this issue. Portugal is the southern limit of butterfly-blue (Phengaris alcon), and has been many years in the red book of endangered species. Butterfly-blue is very demanding of their habitat, and disappears very easily if ideal conditions are not satisfied. Increased fragmentation of landscapes and degradation of suitable habitats, are considered the greatest challenges of the conservation of Phengaris butterfly in Portugal. In recent decades, climate change has also changed butterfly-blue spatial distribution with a movement of the species northward to colder locations, and dispersion in latitude. Butterflies of Europe must escape to the North because of the heat. Dr. Paula Seixas Arnaldo and her research team began a project, completed in December 2013, wanted to preserve and restore priority habitats recognized by the European Union to help species in danger of disappearing with increasing temperature. The blue butterfly is extremely important because it is a key indicator of the quality of these habitats. In the field, the butterflies are monitored to collect all possible data in order to identify the key species. Butterflies start flying in early July and cease in late August. Mating takes about an hour and occurs in the first days of life. The gentian-peat (Gentiana pneumonanthe) serves as the host plant for laying eggs. Each female lays an average of 60 eggs. Larva must grow in a plant near an anthill of Myrmica aloba species. This is important because butterfly larvae are myrmecophilous, living with ants that feed the butterfly larvae for 11 months, because the ants think the butterfly larvae are ant larvae. In early summer the larvae pupate in the nest of ants. Before expanding their wings, they have to leave quickly to avoid being killed by ants when the ants discover have been deceived. My students became aware of this research; we studied and prepared in order to carry out fieldwork. Thus students learn the content and curricular in a scientifically fun way, first with group work in the classroom with my guidance and in a second stage carry knowledge to the field under the guidance of Dra Paula Seixas Arnaldo. We know where we started ... where we arrives is success!

Pacing from the right ventricular septum: is there a danger to the coronary arteries?

PubMed

Teh, Andrew W; Medi, Caroline; Rosso, Raphael; Lee, Geoffrey; Gurvitch, Ronen; Mond, Harry G

2009-07-01

Pacing from right ventricular (RV) septal sites has been suggested as an alternative to RV apical pacing in an attempt to avoid long-term adverse consequences on left ventricular function. Concern has been raised as to the relationship of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) to pacing leads in these positions. We retrospectively analyzed three cases in which patients with RV active-fixation leads in situ also had coronary angiography. Multiple fluoroscopic views were used to determine the relationship of the lead tip at various pacing sites to the coronary arteries. A lead placed on the anterior wall was in close proximity to the LAD, whereas septal and free wall positioning was not. Placement of RV active-fixation leads on the septum avoids potential coronary artery compromise.

I'm Not a Warmist! Transcending Ideological Barriers in Climate Communication (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denning, S.

2013-12-01

A wealth of social science research has shown that public perception of climate change is very strongly colored by ideological filters in which facts are evaluated based on their fit to previously held beliefs. Scientific discourse about climate change is well received by environmentalism, which confirms the fears and competitive impulses of libertarianism. When data and belief come into conflict in public discourse, belief nearly always dominates. Scientists, educators, and science communicators must acknowledge the cultural context of climate change in order to lift climate discourse out of its ideological gutter. Many communication strategies emerging from solid social-science research fail to acknowledge the ideological cultural filters through which people experience climate discourse. Emphasizing recent trends, current weather events and impacts, and especially argument from authority of expertise and consensus are effective with average audiences but trigger reflexive opposition from suspicious listeners. Beyond ideology, climate change is Simple, Serious, and Solvable. Effective communication of these three key ideas can succeed when the science argument is carefully framed to avoid attack of the audience's ethical identity. Simple arguments from common sense and everyday experience are more successful than data. Serious consequences to values that resonate with the audience can be avoided by solutions that don't threaten those values.

How prevalent are hazardous attitudes among orthopaedic surgeons?

PubMed

Bruinsma, Wendy E; Becker, Stéphanie J E; Guitton, Thierry G; Kadzielski, John; Ring, David

2015-05-01

So-called "hazardous attitudes" (macho, impulsive, antiauthority, resignation, invulnerable, and confident) were identified by the Federal Aviation Administration and the Canadian Air Transport Administration as contributing to road traffic incidents among college-aged drivers and felt to be useful for the prevention of aviation accidents. The concept of hazardous attitudes may also be useful in understanding adverse events in surgery, but it has not been widely studied. We surveyed a cohort of orthopaedic surgeons to determine the following: (1) What is the prevalence of hazardous attitudes in a large cohort of orthopaedic surgeons? (2) Do practice setting and/or demographics influence variation in hazardous attitudes in our cohort of surgeons? (3) Do surgeons feel they work in a climate that promotes patient safety? We asked the members of the Science of Variation Group-fully trained, practicing orthopaedic and trauma surgeons from around the world-to complete a questionnaire validated in college-aged drivers measuring six attitudes associated with a greater likelihood of collision and used by pilots to assess and teach aviation safety. We accepted this validation as applicable to surgeons and modified the questionnaire accordingly. We also asked them to complete the Modified Safety Climate Questionnaire, a questionnaire assessing the absence of a safety climate that is based on the patient safety cultures in healthcare organizations instrument. Three hundred sixty-four orthopaedic surgeons participated, representing a 47% response rate of those with correct email addresses who were invited. Thirty-eight percent (137 of 364 surgeons) had at least one score that would have been considered dangerously high in pilots (> 20), including 102 with dangerous levels of macho (28%) and 41 with dangerous levels of self-confidence (11%). After accounting for possible confounding variables, the variables most closely associated with a macho attitude deemed hazardous in pilots were supervision of surgical trainees in the operating room (p = 0.003); location of practice in Canada (p = 0.059), Europe (p = 0.021), and the United States (p = 0.005); and being an orthopaedic trauma surgeon (p = 0.046) (when compared with general orthopaedic surgeons), but accounted for only 5.3% of the variance (p < 0.001). On average, 19% of surgeon responses to the Modified Safety Climate Questionnaire implied absence of a safety climate. Hazardous attitudes are common among orthopaedic surgeons and relate in small part to demographics and practice setting. Future studies should further validate the measure of hazardous attitudes among surgeons and determine if they are associated with preventable adverse events. We agree with aviation safety experts that awareness of amelioration of such attitudes might improve safety in all complex, high-risk endeavors, including surgery-a line of thinking that merits additional research.

Dopamine and Octopamine Influence Avoidance Learning of Honey Bees in a Place Preference Assay

PubMed Central

Agarwal, Maitreyi; Giannoni Guzmán, Manuel; Morales-Matos, Carla; Del Valle Díaz, Rafael Alejandro; Abramson, Charles I.; Giray, Tugrul

2011-01-01

Biogenic amines are widely characterized in pathways evaluating reward and punishment, resulting in appropriate aversive or appetitive responses of vertebrates and invertebrates. We utilized the honey bee model and a newly developed spatial avoidance conditioning assay to probe effects of biogenic amines octopamine (OA) and dopamine (DA) on avoidance learning. In this new protocol non-harnessed bees associate a spatial color cue with mild electric shock punishment. After a number of experiences with color and shock the bees no longer enter the compartment associated with punishment. Intrinsic aspects of avoidance conditioning are associated with natural behavior of bees such as punishment (lack of food, explosive pollination mechanisms, danger of predation, heat, etc.) and their association to floral traits or other spatial cues during foraging. The results show that DA reduces the punishment received whereas octopamine OA increases the punishment received. These effects are dose-dependent and specific to the acquisition phase of training. The effects during acquisition are specific as shown in experiments using the antagonists Pimozide and Mianserin for DA and OA receptors, respectively. This study demonstrates the integrative role of biogenic amines in aversive learning in the honey bee as modeled in a novel non-appetitive avoidance learning assay. PMID:21980435

Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

2014-12-01

Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

Dangerous Predatory Publishers Threaten Medical Research.

PubMed

Beall, Jeffrey

2016-10-01

This article introduces predatory publishers in the context of biomedical sciences research. It describes the characteristics of predatory publishers, including spamming and using fake metrics, and it describes the problems they cause for science and universities. Predatory journals often fail to properly manage peer review, allowing pseudo-science to be published dressed up as authentic science. Academic evaluation is also affected, as some researchers take advantage of the quick, easy, and cheap publishing predatory journals provide. By understanding how predatory publishers operate, researchers can avoid becoming victimized by them.

Purification process for .sup.153Gd produced in natural europium targets

DOEpatents

Johnsen, Amanda M; Soderquist, Chuck Z; McNamara, Bruce K; Risher, Darrell R

2013-04-23

An alteration of the traditional zinc/zinc-amalgam reduction procedure which eliminates both the hazardous mercury and dangerous hydrogen gas generation. In order to avoid the presence of water and hydrated protons in the working solution, which can oxidize Eu.sup.2+ and cause hydrogen gas production, a process utilizing methanol as the process solvent is described. While methanol presents some flammability hazard in a radiological hot cell, it can be better managed and is less of a flammability hazard than hydrogen gas generation.

Work Domain Analysis of Australia’s Air Power System: Purpose-related Functions of Combat; Transport; and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Subsystems

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

of nature (e.g., flooding, drought, cyclone, earthquake, volcanic eruption , disease epidemic) or an act of man (e.g., riots, civil unrest, war...e.g., volcanic eruption ). To militate against these potential dangers, assets contributing to People Rescue (e.g., fixed-wing aircraft, rotary-wing...operating altitude of an aircraft to avoid strong winds or volcanic ash). UNCLASSIFIED DSTO-TR-3085 UNCLASSIFIED 69  “…rescue helicopters and

[Multiple fractures of the lower extremities (a propos of 50 patients)].

PubMed

Touzard, R C; Kudela, I

1975-04-01

According to a study of 50 multiple fractures of the lower limbs, the frequency of associated lesions justifies the creation of new multiple injury units, well equipped in which may be found specialists of all branches of surgery. Although internal fixation in one stage as an emergency, is ideal in all fractures, one should in fact be circumspect for the danger of infection should lead one to avoid carrying out internal fixation if this is not absolutely necessary.

Thermoregulatory mechanisms in Sarcophaga.

PubMed

Willmer, P G

1982-06-01

The flesh fly, Sarcophaga, is frequently seen feeding on flowers during periods of high radiation when other flies of comparable size avoid exposure because of the dangers of overheating. Sarcophaga is able to maintain its intermittent flower visits due to a cuticle of high thermal reflectance, giving low intrinsic heating rates, and to an ability to shunt blood between thorax and abdomen according to its needs. The fly thus achieves partial thermoregulation and can keep its body temperature within the preferred range for longer periods than its potential entomophilous competitors.

The Effects of GWOT and Deployment Intensity on the Propensity to Develop Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) among Navy Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

In addition to anxiety and depression, symptoms included headaches , anorexia . . . tremors, insomnia, nightmares and palpitation which were...the traumatic event • Hyper awareness (i.e. feel constantly on guard or alert for danger, which may cause trouble sleeping) • Symptoms last longer...of war. It thus becomes much safer to simply say nothing and avoid the feelings . b. World War II Having forgotten the lessons from World War I

Alarm inhalation dosemeter for long living radioactive dust due to an uncontrolled release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streil, T.; Oeser, V.; Rambousky, R.; Buchholz, F. W.

2008-08-01

MyRIAM is the acronym for My Radioactivity In Air Monitor and points out that the device was designed for personal use to detect any radioactivity in the air at the place and at the moment of danger. The active air sampling process enables a detection limit several orders of magnitude below that of Gamma detectors. Therefore, it is the unique way to detect dangerous exposures in time. Individual protection against inhalation of long living radioactive dust (LLRD) saves human life and health. LLRD may occur in natural environment as well as in case of nuclear accidence or military and terrorist attacks. But in any case, the immediate warning of the population is of great importance. Keep in mind: it is very easy to avoid LLRD inhalation—but you have to recognize the imminent danger. The second requirement of gap-less documentation and reliable assessment of any derived LLRD exposure is building the link to Dosimetry applications. The paper demonstrates the possibility to design small and low cost air samplers, which can be used as personal alarm dosimeters and fulfil the requirements mentioned above. Several test measurements taken by a mobile phone sized MyRIAM, shall be used to demonstrate the correctness of this statement.

[Embolization of the feeding artery of a meningioma with dangerous vascular anastomosis between the middle meningeal artery and the ophthalmic artery].

PubMed

Meguro, Toshinari; Tomita, Yusuke; Tanabe, Tomoyuki; Muraoka, Kenichiro; Terada, Kinya; Hirotsune, Nobuyuki; Nishino, Shigeki

2013-11-01

Preoperative embolization of intracranial meningioma has been applied to reduce intraoperative blood loss and to facilitate microsurgical removal of a tumor. It is well known that one of the reasons of the neurological risk of embolization is due to dangerous anastomosis between the extracranial and the intracranial arteries. One of the most known and dangerous case of anastomosis is between the middle meningeal artery to the ophthalmic artery. A 48-year-old woman underwent preoperative embolization of a large right middle cranial fossa meningioma. The right external carotid angiogram showed that the tumor was fed by the right middle meningeal artery and there was no branch to the right orbital region. The right internal carotid angiogram showed that the right ophthalmic artery originated from the right internal carotid artery and there was no branch to the tumor. The selective angiogram of the anterior branch of the middle meningeal artery disclosed the anastomosis to the right ophthalmic artery. Following embolization of the anterior branch of the middle meningeal artery, the patient underwent embolization of the main feeding branch of the meningioma. She successfully underwent surgical removal of the tumor without any blood transfusion and was discharged without neurological deficit. In addition, to avoid complication in embolization of the feeding artery of a skull base meningioma, clinicians must be aware of the dangerous anastomosis between the middle meningeal artery and the ophthalmic artery, even if conventional external and internal carotid angiograms do not show any anastomosis.

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues Affecting the U.S. Military. January 2009

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

islands as a consequence of climate change effects. Coastal residents of Fiji were instructed to move to higher ground to avoid storms and flooding...environmental matters from energy security to international cooperation for addressing climate change . [See Appendix for more detail]. Military...military environmental programs could receive higher profiles. Since climate change is a new top priority, the military should identify all its resources

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

There has been a long tradition of estimating the amount of climate change that would result from various carbon dioxide emission or concentration scenarios but there has been relatively little quantitative analysis of how long it takes to feel the consequences of an individual carbon dioxide emission. Using conjoined results of recent carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects, we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6 to 30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. To characterize the carbon cycle uncertainty associated with the global temperature response to a carbon dioxide emission today, we use fits to the time series of carbon dioxide concentrations from a CO2-impulse response function model intercomparison project's 15 ensemble members (1). To characterize both the uncertainty in climate sensitivity and in the thermal inertia of the climate system, we use fits to the time series of global temperature change from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5; 2) abrupt4xco2 experiment's 20 ensemble's members separating the effects of each uncertainty factors using one of two simple physical models for each CMIP5 climate model. This yields 6,000 possible combinations of these three factors using a standard convolution integral approach. Our results indicate that benefits of avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While the relevant time lags imposed by the climate system are substantially shorter than a human lifetime, they are substantially longer than the typical political election cycle, making the delay and its associated uncertainties both economically and politically significant. References: 1. Joos F et al. (2013) Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos Chem Phys 13:2793-2825. 2. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485-498.

Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in U.S. wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014

Treesearch

Patrick H. Freeborn; W. Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane

2016-01-01

One component of climate‐fire interactions is the relationship between weather conditions concurrent with burning (i.e., fire danger) and the magnitude of fire activity. Here daily environmental conditions are associated with daily observations of fire activity within ecoregions across the continental United States (CONUS) by aligning the latter 12 years of a 36 year...

Should Educators Be "Wrapping School Playgrounds in Cotton Wool" to Encourage Physical Activity? Exploring Primary and Secondary Students' Voices from the School Playground

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hyndman, Brendon P.; Telford, Amanda

2015-01-01

Physical activity in school playgrounds has changed considerably over recent decades to reflect a climate of "surplus safety". A growing culture of surplus safety can be attributed to a desire of parents and teachers responsible for children to protect school students from danger. The aim of this research was to examine students'…

The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

2014-01-01

In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

Climate Change and the Arboviruses: Lessons from the Evolution of the Dengue and Yellow Fever Viruses.

PubMed

Tabachnick, Walter J

2016-09-29

The impact of anticipated changes in global climate on the arboviruses and the diseases they cause poses a significant challenge for public health. The past evolution of the dengue and yellow fever viruses provides clues about the influence of changes in climate on their future evolution. The evolution of both viruses has been influenced by virus interactions involving the mosquito species and the primate hosts involved in virus transmission, and by their domestic and sylvatic cycles. Information is needed on how viral genes in general influence phenotypic variance for important viral functions. Changes in global climate will alter the interactions of mosquito species with their primate hosts and with the viruses in domestic cycles, and greater attention should be paid to the sylvatic cycles. There is great danger for the evolution of novel viruses, such as new serotypes, that could compromise vaccination programs and jeopardize public health. It is essential to understand (a) both sylvatic and domestic cycles and (b) the role of virus genetic and environmental variances in shaping virus phenotypic variance to more fully assess the impact of global climate change.

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches From The Front Lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.

2011-12-01

A central figure in the controversy over human-caused climate change has been The Hockey Stick, a simple, easy-to-understand graph my colleagues and I constructed to depict changes in Earth's temperature back to 1000 AD. The graph was featured in the high-profile Summary for Policy Makers of the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and it quickly became an icon in the debate over human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change. I will tell the story behind the Hockey Stick, using it as a vehicle for exploring broader issues regarding the role of skepticism in science, the uneasy relationship between science and politics, and the dangers that arise when special economic interests and those who do their bidding attempt to skew the discourse over policy-relevant areas of science. In short, I attempt to use the Hockey Stick to cut through the fog of disinformation that has been generated by the campaign to deny the reality of climate change. It is my intent, in so doing, to reveal the very real threat to our future that lies behind it.

Building human resilience: the role of public health preparedness and response as an adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Keim, Mark E

2008-11-01

Global climate change will increase the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, drought, wildfire, cyclones, and heavy precipitation that could cause floods and landslides. Such events create significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond, resulting in excess morbidity or mortality and in the declaration of disasters. Human vulnerability to any disaster is a complex phenomenon with social, economic, health, and cultural dimensions. Vulnerability to natural disasters has two sides: the degree of exposure to dangerous hazards (susceptibility) and the capacity to cope with or recover from disaster consequences (resilience). Vulnerability reduction programs reduce susceptibility and increase resilience. Susceptibility to disasters is reduced largely by prevention and mitigation of emergencies. Emergency preparedness and response and recovery activities--including those that address climate change--increase disaster resilience. Because adaptation must occur at the community level, local public health agencies are uniquely placed to build human resilience to climate-related disasters. This article discusses the role of public health in reducing human vulnerability to climate change within the context of select examples for emergency preparedness and response.

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Lixia; Kuchar, James K.

2003-01-01

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Safety Climate Among Nontraditional Workers in Construction: Arguing for a Focus on Construed External Safety Image.

PubMed

Stiehl, Emily; Forst, Linda

2018-05-01

Safety climate, employees' perceptions of work-related safety, 1 has been promoted as a leading indicator of workplace safety in construction. 2 , 3 While research has primarily examined internal organizational sources (e.g., manager attitudes, formal organizational policies) on these perceptions, external sources of information might be more relevant to construction workers in nontraditional jobs who work for a limited time and/or have limited interaction with other employees. This paper argues for the future development of a construed external safety image scale to measure employees' perceptions about how external groups view their organization's safety. 4 The construed external safety image would capture the external sources that nontraditional workers use to assess safety climate and will allow public health researchers to identify and change dangerous workplaces while more effectively communicating information about safe workplaces to workers. The public health relevance of safety climate and construed external safety image for monitoring and communicating safety to nontraditional workers require examination.

More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2015-12-01

Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2017-01-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90 of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Margaret; Fleming, Eric; Newman, Paul; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2017-04-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunt, D.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Schmidt, G.A.; Salzmann, U.; Valdes, P.J.; Dowsett, H.J.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

U.S. Funding is insufficient to address the human health impacts of and public health responses to climate variability and change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Balbus, John; Kinney, Patrick L; Lipp, Erin; Mills, David; O'Neill, Marie S; Wilson, Mark L

2009-06-01

The need to identify and try to prevent adverse health impacts of climate change has risen to the forefront of climate change policy debates and become a top priority of the public health community. Given the observed and projected changes in climate and weather patterns, their current and anticipated health impacts, and the significant degree of regulatory discussion underway in the U.S. government, it is reasonable to determine the extent of federal investment in research to understand, avoid, prepare for, and respond to the human health impacts of climate change in the United States. In this commentary we summarize the health risks of climate change in the United States and examine the extent of federal funding devoted to understanding, avoiding, preparing for, and responding to the human health risks of climate change. Future climate change is projected to exacerbate various current health problems, including heat-related mortality, diarrheal diseases, and diseases associated with exposure to ozone and aeroallergens. Demographic trends and geophysical and socioeconomic factors could increase overall vulnerability. Despite these risks, extramural federal funding of climate change and health research is estimated to be < $3 million per year. Given the real risks that climate change poses for U.S. populations, the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and other agencies need to have robust intramural and extramural programs, with funding of > $200 million annually. Oversight of the size and priorities of these programs could be provided by a standing committee within the National Academy of Sciences.

Exposure and Vulnerability Geospatial Analysis Using Earth Observation Data in the City of Liege, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenne, N.; Beaumont, B.; Hallot, E.; Lenartz, F.; Lefebre, F.; Lauwaet, D.; Poelmans, L.; Wolff, E.

2017-05-01

Risk situation can be mitigated by prevention measures, early warning tools and adequate monitoring of past experiences where Earth Observation and geospatial analysis have an adding value. This paper discusses the potential use of Earth Observation data and especially Land Cover / Land Use map in addressing within the three aspects of the risk assessment: danger, exposure and vulnerability. Evidences of the harmful effects of air pollution or heat waves are widely admitted and should increase in the context of global warming. Moreover, urban areas are generally warmer than rural surroundings, the so-called urban heat island. Combined with in-situ measurements, this paper presents models of city or local climate (air pollution and urban heat island), with a resolution of less than one kilometer, developed by integrating several sources of information including Earth Observation data and in particular Land Cover / Land Use. This assessment of the danger is then be related to a map of exposure and vulnerable people. Using dasymetric method to disaggregate statistical information on Land Cover / Land Use data, the SmartPop project analyzes in parallel the map of danger with the maps of people exposure A special focus on some categories at risk such as the elderly has been proposed by Aubrecht and Ozceylan (2013). Perspectives of the project includes the integration of a new Land Cover / Land Use map in the danger, exposure and vulnerability models and proposition of several aspects of risk assessment with the stakeholders of Wallonia.

Climate Science: A Journalist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roosevelt, M.

2011-12-01

U.S. public opinion polls show that concern over global warming has dropped precipitously in the wake of economic turmoil. With a dearth of climate change coverage on network news, and in large newspapers and magazines, the public largely gets its climate news--and science news generally--from local TV weathermen. At the same time, many local weathercasters have little time to educate themselves about climate change--although the National Science Foundation is funding an effort to inform them. The Heartland Institute and other climate-skeptic organizations are reaching out to TV weathermen, and some prominent weathercasters have embraced the skeptics' arguments, but websites such as Climate Central, and blogs such as DotEarth are seeking to fill the void. The innate caution of climate scientists, most of whom are reluctant to extrapolate from a narrow study on, say, carbon flux or sea ice, to talk about why the planet is in danger is another challenge. For the most part, they don't want to stick their necks out for fear of professional retribution. When scientists limit themselves to talking about narrow results, journalists' eyes glaze over and no one connects the dots. Much attention is devoted to whether or not the media is doing a good job in covering climate change, when energy might better be spent on applying pressure to decision makers? The media can't make legislators vote for progressive climate change policies--only constituents can do that.

Environmental health attitudes and behaviors: findings from a large pregnancy cohort study.

PubMed

Barrett, Emily S; Sathyanarayana, Sheela; Janssen, Sarah; Redmon, J Bruce; Nguyen, Ruby H N; Kobrosly, Roni; Swan, Shanna H

2014-05-01

Environmental chemicals are widely found in food and personal care products and may have adverse effects on fetal development. Our aim was to examine women's attitudes about these chemicals and ask whether they try to limit their exposure during pregnancy. A multi-center cohort of women in the first trimester of pregnancy completed questionnaires including items on attitudes and behaviors related to environmental chemicals. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine: (1) whether sociodemographic variables predict environmental health attitudes and behaviors; and (2) whether women's attitudes about environmental chemicals affect their lifestyle behaviors, particularly diet and personal care product use. Of the 894 subjects, approximately 60% strongly agreed that environmental chemicals are dangerous and 25% strongly felt they were impossible to avoid. Adjusting for covariates, educated women were more likely to believe that environmental chemicals are dangerous (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.13, 2.66), and that belief, in turn, was associated with a number of healthy behaviors including choosing organic foods, foods in safe plastics, and chemical-free personal care products, and limiting fast food intake. Younger women were more likely to believe that environmental chemicals are impossible to avoid (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00, 1.08). Women's attitudes about environmental chemicals may impact their choices during pregnancy. Overcoming a lack of concern about environmental chemicals, particularly among certain sociodemographic groups, is important for the success of clinical or public health prevention measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental health attitudes and behaviors: findings from a large pregnancy cohort study

PubMed Central

Barrett, Emily S.; Sathyanarayana, Sheela; Janssen, Sarah; Redmon, J. Bruce; Nguyen, Ruby H.N.; Kobrosly, Roni; Swan, Shanna H.

2014-01-01

Objective Environmental chemicals are widely found in food and personal care products and may have adverse effects on fetal development. Our aim was to examine women’s attitudes about these chemicals and ask whether they try to limit their exposure during pregnancy. Study design A multi-center cohort of women in the first trimester of pregnancy completed questionnaires including items on attitudes and behaviors related to environmental chemicals. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine: (1) whether sociodemographic variables predict environmental health attitudes and behaviors; and (2) whether women’s attitudes about environmental chemicals affect their lifestyle behaviors, particularly diet and personal care product use. Results Of the 894 subjects, approximately 60% strongly agreed that environmental chemicals are dangerous and 25% strongly felt they were impossible to avoid. Adjusting for covariates, educated women were more likely to believe that environmental chemicals are dangerous (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.13, 2.66), and that belief, in turn, was associated with a number of healthy behaviors including choosing organic foods, foods in safe plastics, and chemical-free personal care products, and limiting fast food intake. Younger women were more likely to believe environmental chemicals are impossible to avoid (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00, 1.08). Conclusions Women’s attitudes about environmental chemicals may impact their choices during pregnancy. Overcoming a lack of concern about environmental chemicals, particularly among certain sociodemographic groups, is important for the success of clinical or public health prevention measures. PMID:24647207

Mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolites are associated with vigilance, whereas immediate cortisol levels better reflect acute anti-predator responses in meerkats.

PubMed

Voellmy, Irene K; Goncalves, Ines Braga; Barrette, Marie-France; Monfort, Steven L; Manser, Marta B

2014-11-01

Adrenal hormones likely affect anti-predator behavior in animals. With experimental field studies, we first investigated associations between mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (fGC) excretion and vigilance and with behavioral responses to alarm call playbacks in free-ranging meerkats (Suricata suricatta). We then tested how vigilance and behavioral responses to alarm call playbacks were affected in individuals administered exogenous cortisol. We found a positive association between mean fGC concentrations and vigilance behavior, but no relationship with the intensity of behavioral responses to alarm calls. However, in response to alarm call playbacks, individuals administered cortisol took slightly longer to resume foraging than control individuals treated with saline solution. Vigilance behavior, which occurs in the presence and absence of dangerous stimuli, serves to detect and avoid potential dangers, whereas responses to alarm calls serve to avoid immediate predation. Our data show that mean fGC excretion in meerkats was associated with vigilance, as a re-occurring anti-predator behavior over long time periods, and experimentally induced elevations of plasma cortisol affected the response to immediate threats. Together, our results indicate an association between the two types of anti-predator behavior and glucocorticoids, but that the underlying mechanisms may differ. Our study emphasizes the need to consider appropriate measures of adrenal activity specific to different contexts when assessing links between stress physiology and different anti-predator behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stereo-based Collision Avoidance System for Urban Traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriya, Takashi; Ishikawa, Naoto; Sasaki, Kazuyuki; Nakajima, Masato

2002-11-01

Numerous car accidents occur on urban road. However, researches done so far on driving assistance are subjecting highways whose environment is relatively simple and easy to handle, and new approach for urban settings is required. Our purpose is to extend its support to the following conditions in city traffic: the presence of obstacles such as pedestrians and telephone poles; the lane mark is not always drawn on a road; drivers may lack the sense of awareness of the lane mark. We propose a collision avoidance system, which can be applied to both highways and urban traffic environment. In our system, stereo cameras are set in front of a vehicle and the captured images are processed through a computer. We create a Projected Disparity Map (PDM) from stereo image pair, which is a disparity histogram taken along ordinate direction of obtained disparity image. When there is an obstacle in front, we can detect it by finding a peak appeared in the PDM. With a speed meter and a steering sensor, the stop distance and the radius of curvature of the self-vehicle are calculated, in order to set the observation-required area, which does not depend on lane marks, within a PDM. A danger level will be computed from the distance and the relative speed to the closest approaching object detected within the observation-required area. The method has been tested in urban traffic scenes and has shown to be effective for judging dangerous situation, and gives proper alarm to a driver.

The costs of climate change: ecosystem services and wildland fires

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper we use Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) to monetize the avoided ecosystem services losses due to climate change-induced wildland fires in the U.S. Specifically, we use the U.S. Forest Service’s MC1 dynamic global vegetation model to forecast changes in wildland fi...

Biochar amendment of soil improves resilience to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Because of climate change, insufficient soil moisture may become an increasing limitation to crop productivity in certain regions of the world. This may be particularly consequential for biofuel crops, many of which will have to be grown in drought-prone soils to avoid competition with food crops. ...

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

Turtle embryos move to optimal thermal environments within the egg.

PubMed

Zhao, Bo; Li, Teng; Shine, Richard; Du, Wei-Guo

2013-08-23

A recent study demonstrated that the embryos of soft-shelled turtles can reposition themselves within their eggs to exploit locally warm conditions. In this paper, we ask whether turtle embryos actively seek out optimal thermal environments for their development, as do post-hatching individuals. Specifically, (i) do reptile embryos move away from dangerously high temperatures as well as towards warm temperatures? and (ii) is such embryonic movement due to active thermoregulation, or (more simply) to passive embryonic repositioning caused by local heat-induced changes in viscosity of fluids within the egg? Our experiments with an emydid turtle (Chinemys reevesii) show that embryos avoid dangerously high temperatures by moving to cooler regions of the egg. The repositioning of embryos is an active rather than passive process: live embryos move towards a heat source, whereas dead ones do not. Overall, our results suggest that behavioural thermoregulation by turtle embryos is genuinely analogous to the thermoregulatory behaviour exhibited by post-hatching ectotherms.

[Dangerous sharks in tropical seas].

PubMed

Maslin, J; Menard, G; Drouin, C; Pollet, L

2000-01-01

Sightseeing travel in tropical zones is a growing industry. The risks incurred by travelers depend on the destination, duration of stay, individual behavior, and type of leisure activity. Water sports expose visitors to encounters with dangerous marine animals. Shark attacks are rare but always serious occurrences. Divers should handle any shark, regardless of size, with due precaution. Prevention of shark attack depends on avoiding encounters by not attracting the attention of the shark and knowing the proper attitude to adopt in case an encounter should occur. Active and passive protection can be used, but each method has advantages and disadvantages depending on the situation. Rescue operations are difficult due to the gravity of injuries and their occurrence in a marine environment. This along with the nature of the aggressor explain that many attacks are immediately fatal. Wounds are often deep with involvement of bone, blood vessels, and nerves. A possible source of complication in survivors is infection, which can involve uncommon microorganisms associated with bacteria in sharks mouth or marine environment.

Lightning may pose a danger to patients receiving deep brain stimulation: case report.

PubMed

Prezelj, Neža; Trošt, Maja; Georgiev, Dejan; Flisar, Dušan

2018-05-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an established treatment option for advanced stages of Parkinson's disease and other movement disorders. It is known that DBS is susceptible to strong electromagnetic fields (EMFs) that can be generated by various electrical devices at work, home, and in medical environments. EMFs can interfere with the proper functioning of implantable pulse generators (IPGs). Very strong EMFs can generate induction currents in implanted electrodes and even damage the brain. Manufacturers of DBS devices have issued a list of warnings on how to avoid this danger. Strong EMFs can result from natural forces as well. The authors present the case of a 66-year-old woman who was being treated with a rechargeable DBS system for neck dystonia when her apartment was struck by lightning. Domestic electronic devices that were operating during the event were burned and destroyed. The woman's IPG switched off but remained undamaged, and she suffered no neurological consequences.

The generic danger and the idiosyncratic support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Temme, Arnaud; Nijp, Jelmer; van der Meij, Marijn; Samia, Jalal; Masselink, Rens

2016-04-01

This contribution argues two main points. First, that generic landscapes used in some modelling studies sometimes have properties or cause simulation results that are unrealistic. Such initially flat or straight-sloped landscapes, sometimes with minor random perturbations, e.g. form the backdrop for ecological simulations of vegetation growth and competition that predict catastrophic shifts. Exploratory results for semi-arid systems suggest that the results based on these generic landscapes are end-members from a distribution of results, rather than an unbiased, typical outcome. Apparently, the desire to avoid idiosyncrasy has unintended consequences. Second, we argue and illustrate that in fact new insights often come from close inspection of idiosyncratic case studies. Our examples from landslide systems, connectivity and soil formation show how a central role for the case study - either in empirical work or to provide model targets - has advanced our understanding. Both points contribute to the conclusion that it is dangerous to forget about annoying, small-scale, idiosyncratic and, indeed, perhaps bad-ass case studies in Earth Sciences.

Under the umbrella

PubMed Central

Müller, Kai W.

2017-01-01

The inclusion of Internet Gaming Disorder as a preliminary diagnosis subsumed in Section III of the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) has provoked mixed reactions. On the one hand, it has been appreciated as an important sign stressing the negative health-related impact of that disorder. Likewise, the definition of diagnostic criteria helps scientists and clinicians to refer to mandatory indicators associated with a health problem. On the other hand, it has been objected that this new diagnosis bears the danger of pathologizing normal behaviors that are a feature of healthy recreational activity for many people. However, the existence of diagnostic criteria is meant to avoid this danger. This emphasizes the necessity of being able to refer to as accurate defined criteria as possible. In its current version, the DSM criteria display not only strengths but also ambiguities. Both types will be discussed and necessary ideas to resolve those ambiguities will be presented for further research. PMID:28301966

Turtle embryos move to optimal thermal environments within the egg

PubMed Central

Zhao, Bo; Li, Teng; Shine, Richard; Du, Wei-Guo

2013-01-01

A recent study demonstrated that the embryos of soft-shelled turtles can reposition themselves within their eggs to exploit locally warm conditions. In this paper, we ask whether turtle embryos actively seek out optimal thermal environments for their development, as do post-hatching individuals. Specifically, (i) do reptile embryos move away from dangerously high temperatures as well as towards warm temperatures? and (ii) is such embryonic movement due to active thermoregulation, or (more simply) to passive embryonic repositioning caused by local heat-induced changes in viscosity of fluids within the egg? Our experiments with an emydid turtle (Chinemys reevesii) show that embryos avoid dangerously high temperatures by moving to cooler regions of the egg. The repositioning of embryos is an active rather than passive process: live embryos move towards a heat source, whereas dead ones do not. Overall, our results suggest that behavioural thermoregulation by turtle embryos is genuinely analogous to the thermoregulatory behaviour exhibited by post-hatching ectotherms. PMID:23760168

A Compact Magnetic Field-Based Obstacle Detection and Avoidance System for Miniature Spherical Robots.

PubMed

Wu, Fang; Vibhute, Akash; Soh, Gim Song; Wood, Kristin L; Foong, Shaohui

2017-05-28

Due to their efficient locomotion and natural tolerance to hazardous environments, spherical robots have wide applications in security surveillance, exploration of unknown territory and emergency response. Numerous studies have been conducted on the driving mechanism, motion planning and trajectory tracking methods of spherical robots, yet very limited studies have been conducted regarding the obstacle avoidance capability of spherical robots. Most of the existing spherical robots rely on the "hit and run" technique, which has been argued to be a reasonable strategy because spherical robots have an inherent ability to recover from collisions. Without protruding components, they will not become stuck and can simply roll back after running into bstacles. However, for small scale spherical robots that contain sensitive surveillance sensors and cannot afford to utilize heavy protective shells, the absence of obstacle avoidance solutions would leave the robot at the mercy of potentially dangerous obstacles. In this paper, a compact magnetic field-based obstacle detection and avoidance system has been developed for miniature spherical robots. It utilizes a passive magnetic field so that the system is both compact and power efficient. The proposed system can detect not only the presence, but also the approaching direction of a ferromagnetic obstacle, therefore, an intelligent avoidance behavior can be generated by adapting the trajectory tracking method with the detection information. Design optimization is conducted to enhance the obstacle detection performance and detailed avoidance strategies are devised. Experimental results are also presented for validation purposes.

Perceived temperature in the course of climate change: an analysis of global heat index from 1979-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Brenner, T.

2015-03-01

The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and evaluate global changes to the heat index, a measure of temperature as perceived by humans. Heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and other animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute heat index from dewpoint temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the years 1979-2013. The data is provided aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.841057). Furthermore, the data is temporally aggregated to monthly and yearly values and spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to demonstrate its usefulness for the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past 3 decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The likelihood of dangerous heat index events has increased globally. Also, heat index climate groups that would formerly be expected closer to the tropics have spread latitudinally to include areas closer to the poles. The data can serve in future studies as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.

Fire danger rating and fire behavior prediction in the United States

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2005-01-01

For the seven year period from 1998 to 2004, an average of almost 79,000 fires per year on U.S. Federal and State land burned a yearly average of over 22,000 km2. An average of 1 billion US dollars was spent on suppression each year by the Federal agencies alone. Variation in climate, vegetation, and population across the U.S. leads to significant differences in the...

Maladaptive behavioral consequences of conditioned fear-generalization: a pronounced, yet sparsely studied, feature of anxiety pathology.

PubMed

van Meurs, Brian; Wiggert, Nicole; Wicker, Isaac; Lissek, Shmuel

2014-06-01

Fear-conditioning experiments in the anxiety disorders focus almost exclusively on passive-emotional, Pavlovian conditioning, rather than active-behavioral, instrumental conditioning. Paradigms eliciting both types of conditioning are needed to study maladaptive, instrumental behaviors resulting from Pavlovian abnormalities found in clinical anxiety. One such Pavlovian abnormality is generalization of fear from a conditioned danger-cue (CS+) to resembling stimuli. Though lab-based findings repeatedly link overgeneralized Pavlovian-fear to clinical anxiety, no study assesses the degree to which Pavlovian overgeneralization corresponds with maladaptive, overgeneralized instrumental-avoidance. The current effort fills this gap by validating a novel fear-potentiated startle paradigm including Pavlovian and instrumental components. The paradigm is embedded in a computer game during which shapes appear on the screen. One shape paired with electric-shock serves as CS+, and other resembling shapes, presented in the absence of shock, serve as generalization stimuli (GSs). During the game, participants choose whether to behaviorally avoid shock at the cost of poorer performance. Avoidance during CS+ is considered adaptive because shock is a real possibility. By contrast, avoidance during GSs is considered maladaptive because shock is not a realistic prospect and thus unnecessarily compromises performance. Results indicate significant Pavlovian-instrumental relations, with greater generalization of Pavlovian fear associated with overgeneralization of maladaptive instrumental-avoidance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socially acquired predator avoidance: is it just classical conditioning?

PubMed

Griffin, Andrea S

2008-06-15

Associative learning theories presume the existence of a general purpose learning process, the structure of which does not mirror the demands of any particular learning problem. In contrast, learning scientists working within an Evolutionary Biology tradition believe that learning processes have been shaped by ecological demands. One potential means of exploring how ecology may have modified properties of acquisition is to use associative learning theory as a framework within which to analyse a particular learning phenomenon. Recent work has used this approach to examine whether socially transmitted predator avoidance can be conceptualised as a classical conditioning process in which a novel predator stimulus acts as a conditioned stimulus (CS) and acquires control over an avoidance response after it has become associated with alarm signals of social companions, the unconditioned stimulus (US). I review here a series of studies examining the effect of CS/US presentation timing on the likelihood of acquisition. Results suggest that socially acquired predator avoidance may be less sensitive to forward relationships than traditional classical conditioning paradigms. I make the case that socially acquired predator avoidance is an exciting novel one-trial learning paradigm that could be studied along side fear conditioning. Comparisons between social and non-social learning of danger at both the behavioural and neural level may yield a better understanding of how ecology might shape properties and mechanisms of learning.

Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.

2014-12-01

Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.

Safety climate and mindful safety practices in the oil and gas industry.

PubMed

Dahl, Øyvind; Kongsvik, Trond

2018-02-01

The existence of a positive association between safety climate and the safety behavior of sharp-end workers in high-risk organizations is supported by a considerable body of research. Previous research has primarily analyzed two components of safety behavior, namely safety compliance and safety participation. The present study extends previous research by looking into the relationship between safety climate and another component of safety behavior, namely mindful safety practices. Mindful safety practices are defined as the ability to be aware of critical factors in the environment and to act appropriately when dangers arise. Regression analysis was used to examine whether mindful safety practices are, like compliance and participation, promoted by a positive safety climate, in a questionnaire-based study of 5712 sharp-end workers in the oil and gas industry. The analysis revealed that a positive safety climate promotes mindful safety practices. The regression model accounted for roughly 31% of the variance in mindful safety practices. The most important safety climate factor was safety leadership. The findings clearly demonstrate that mindful safety practices are highly context-dependent, hence, manageable and susceptible to change. In order to improve safety climate in a direction which is favorable for mindful safety practices, the results demonstrate that it is important to give the fundamental features of safety climate high priority and in particular that of safety leadership. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Amygdaloid and non-amygdaloid fear both influence avoidance of risky foraging in hungry rats

PubMed Central

Kim, Earnest; Kim, Eun Joo; Yeh, Regina; Shin, Minkyung; Bobman, Jake; Krasne, Franklin B.; Kim, Jeansok J.

2014-01-01

Considerable evidence seems to show that emotional and reflex reactions to feared situations are mediated by the amygdala. It might therefore seem plausible to expect that amygdala-coded fear should also influence decisions when animals make choices about instrumental actions. However, there is not good evidence of this. In particular, it appears, though the literature is conflicted, that once learning is complete, the amygdala may often not be involved in instrumental avoidance behaviours. It is therefore of interest that we have found in rats living for extended periods in a semi-naturalistic ‘closed economy’, where they were given random shocks in regions that had to be entered to obtain food, choices about feeding behaviour were in fact influenced by amygdala-coded fear, in spite of the null effect of amygdalar lesions on fear of dangerous location per se. We suggest that avoidance of highly motivated voluntary behaviour does depend in part on fear signals originating in the amygdala. Such signalling may be one role of well-known projections from amygdala to cortico-striate circuitry. PMID:25056616

Restoring Tides to Avoid Methane Emissions in Degraded Wetlands: A Potent and Untapped Climate Intervention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. D.; Crooks, S.; Moseman-Valtierra, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

To date, activity related to carbon (C) management in coastal marine ecosystems (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon") has been concerned primarily with preserving existing C stocks or creating new wetlands to increase CO2 uptake and sequestration. Here we show that the globally-widespread occurrence of hydrologically-altered, degraded wetlands, and associated enhanced GHG emissions, presents an opportunity to reduce an anthropogenic GHG emission through restoration. We model the climatic forcing associated with carbon sinks in natural wetlands and with GHG emissions in altered and degraded wetlands, as well as compile geographic data on tidal restrictions to show that substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of saline tidal flows in diked, impounded and tidally-restricted coastal wetlands. Despite high rates of carbon storage in coastal ecosystems, tidal restoration has dramatically greater potential per unit area as a climate intervention than most other ecosystem management actions. We argue that such emissions reductions represent avoided anthropogenic emissions, equivalent in concept to reduced fossil fuel emissions. Once the emissions have been avoided, the benefit of that action cannot be eliminated, even if emissions resume in the future due to degradation of the ecosystem. The avoided emissions therefore have inherent "permanence", obviating concerns associated with vulnerability of C stocks in land-use based interventions that enhance C sequestration in wood or soil. Further, emissions reductions are likely to be rapid, and given the high radiative efficiency of avoided CH4, wetland tidal restorations can provide near-term climate benefit. The U.S. has recently initiated an effort to include coastal wetlands in the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, and the analysis presented here indicates that tidally restricted wetlands meet the primary criteria for inventoried ecosystems in that they are managed landscapes, with substantial emissions and sinks. If other countries ultimately follow suit, then inclusion of these emissions in the U.S. Inventory will promote widespread recognition and management of the issue, and justify development of CH4 EF for tidal restrictions in IPCC guidance for GHG inventories.

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

[To start eating again could be dangerous].

PubMed

Weibel, M; Ossola, N

2012-01-04

A 36-year-old woman with anorexia nervosa and resulting malnutrition decided to change her life and eat properly. One day after the refeeding start, instead of feeling better she felt much worse: fatigue, nausea and leg swelling occurred. She consulted our emergency department. A «refeeding syndrome» has been diagnosed. In this case report we discuss causes, clinical presentation and treatment of this illness. The aim is to make practitians aware about the existing of this disease even with oral refeeding. Warning signs have to be interpreted correctly in order to avoid dramatic consequences.

Human Factors Design Guidelines for the Army Tactical Command and Control System (ATTCS) Soldier-Machine Interface. Version 2.0

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-05-01

especially true for friend-enemy or danger-safe designations. Dots, dashes, shapes, and video effects are recommended. Care must be taken to avoid visual...MAY 92 10.3 Screen Design - Format 10.3.1.4 Use of Contrasting Features Use contrasting features such as inverse video and color to call attention to...captions. Do not use reverse video or highlighting for labels. 13.2.3.2 Formatting For single fields, locate the caption to the left of the entry fields

The use of loop-seals for the control of the overpressures in hydraulic transients evolving in a sea service water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canetta, D.; Capozza, A.; Iovino, G.

The transient response following pump trip-offs and start-ups was investigated in the sea water system of a nuclear power plant. Specific care was devoted to water column separation and cavity collapse phenomena. A computer program designed for analysis of complex hydraulic networks was used. It is found that dangerous overpressures can be avoided by the use of loop seals. The design of the vacuum breaker valves of the loop seals and the optimization of overall transient behavior is discussed.

Publication ethics in public health emergencies.

PubMed

Shaw, David; Elger, Bernice S

2017-09-01

In this article, we describe and analyse three issues in publication ethics that are raised when conducting research in emergencies and disasters. These include reluctance to share data and samples because of concerns about publications, loss of individual authorship in high high-profile multi-entity publications, and the deaths of authors during dangerous research projects. An emergency research pledge may be useful in avoiding some of these issues. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe: a projected northward extension of dangerous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-04-01

It is well known that an increase of temperature over Europe, both in terms of averages and extremes, is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts under warm conditions, it is important to take into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To this aim a basic index - the humindex - representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, has been investigated in this study. A very low concomitance of extreme temperature events and extreme humindex events is found over the present climate, reinforcing the importance to investigate not only extreme temperature and relative humidity future projections but also the combination of the two parameters. A set of 10-km resolution regional climate simulations provided within the EUR-11 EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates ability in representing the intense and extreme events of the humindex over the present climate and to be eligible as a tool to quantify future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. An enlargement of the domain subject to dangerous conditions is found since the middle of the current century, reaching 60 degrees North when considering really extreme events. The most significant increase in humindex extreme events is found when comparing the 2066-2095 projections under rcp8.5 scenario, to the 1966-2005 period: bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature extremes, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity intensity in the Northern part of the European domain, associated to extreme temperature and humindex, makes Northern Europe the most prone region to a local increase of the humindex extremes.

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and the Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Hok K.; Sridhar, Banavar; Grabbe, Shon; Chen, Neil

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chen, Neil; Ng, Hok

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flightplan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

A human development framework for CO2 reductions.

PubMed

Costa, Luís; Rybski, Diego; Kropp, Jürgen P

2011-01-01

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO(2) emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO(2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO(2) emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO(2) emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO(2) budgets limiting global warming to 2 °C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO(2) reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2 °C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO(2). These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2 °C. © 2011 Costa et al.

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

PubMed Central

Costa, Luís; Rybski, Diego; Kropp, Jürgen P.

2011-01-01

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world’s population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C. PMID:22216227

Protective factors for mental health and well-being in a changing climate: Perspectives from Inuit youth in Nunatsiavut, Labrador.

PubMed

Petrasek MacDonald, Joanna; Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Ford, James D; Shiwak, Inez; Wood, Michele

2015-09-01

The Canadian Arctic is experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, with implications for Inuit communities widely documented. Youth have been identified as an at-risk population, with likely impacts on mental health and well-being. This study identifies and characterizes youth-specific protective factors that enhance well-being in light of a rapidly changing climate, and examines how climatic and environmental change challenges these. In-depth conversational interviews were conducted with youth aged 15-25 from the five communities of the Nunatsiavut region of Labrador, Canada: Nain, Hopedale, Postville, Makkovik, and Rigolet. Five key protective factors were identified as enhancing their mental health and well-being: being on the land; connecting to Inuit culture; strong communities; relationships with family and friends; and staying busy. Changing sea ice and weather conditions were widely reported to be compromising these protective factors by reducing access to the land, and increasing the danger of land-based activities. This study contributes to existing work on Northern climate change adaptation by identifying factors that enhance youth resilience and, if incorporated into adaptation strategies, may contribute to creating successful and effective adaptation responses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clinton, J.

2017-12-01

Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

Development of the Assessment Items of Debris Flow Using the Delphi Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, Yosep; Seong, Joohyun; Kim, Mingi; Park, Kyunghan; Yoon, Hyungkoo

2016-04-01

In recent years in Korea, Typhoon and the localized extreme rainfall caused by the abnormal climate has increased. Accordingly, debris flow is becoming one of the most dangerous natural disaster. This study aimed to develop the assessment items which can be used for conducting damage investigation of debris flow. Delphi method was applied to classify the realms of assessment items. As a result, 29 assessment items which can be classified into 6 groups were determined.

Climate Change: U.S.-China Partnership for Global Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

our best traditions – find common ground to move the country forward, keep our country safe and strong, and lay the groundwork for decades of...only can this be dangerous to the region in view of Indian on-going conflict with Pakistan . India is but one example of the widespread impact that...sustain the lives of nearly 3 billion people in this Southwest Asian region—in People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, and Pakistan . Changes within

Detection and avoidance of a carnivore odor by prey

PubMed Central

Ferrero, David M.; Lemon, Jamie K.; Fluegge, Daniela; Pashkovski, Stan L.; Korzan, Wayne J.; Datta, Sandeep Robert; Spehr, Marc; Fendt, Markus; Liberles, Stephen D.

2011-01-01

Predator–prey relationships provide a classic paradigm for the study of innate animal behavior. Odors from carnivores elicit stereotyped fear and avoidance responses in rodents, although sensory mechanisms involved are largely unknown. Here, we identified a chemical produced by predators that activates a mouse olfactory receptor and produces an innate behavioral response. We purified this predator cue from bobcat urine and identified it to be a biogenic amine, 2-phenylethylamine. Quantitative HPLC analysis across 38 mammalian species indicates enriched 2-phenylethylamine production by numerous carnivores, with some producing >3,000-fold more than herbivores examined. Calcium imaging of neuronal responses in mouse olfactory tissue slices identified dispersed carnivore odor-selective sensory neurons that also responded to 2-phenylethylamine. Two prey species, rat and mouse, avoid a 2-phenylethylamine odor source, and loss-of-function studies involving enzymatic depletion of 2-phenylethylamine from a carnivore odor indicate it to be required for full avoidance behavior. Thus, rodent olfactory sensory neurons and chemosensory receptors have the capacity for recognizing interspecies odors. One such cue, carnivore-derived 2-phenylethylamine, is a key component of a predator odor blend that triggers hard-wired aversion circuits in the rodent brain. These data show how a single, volatile chemical detected in the environment can drive an elaborate danger-associated behavioral response in mammals. PMID:21690383

Foragers of sympatric Asian honey bee species intercept competitor signals by avoiding benzyl acetate from Apis cerana alarm pheromone.

PubMed

Wen, Ping; Cheng, Yanan; Qu, Yufeng; Zhang, Hongxia; Li, Jianjun; Bell, Heather; Tan, Ken; Nieh, James

2017-07-27

While foraging, animals can form inter- and intraspecific social signalling networks to avoid similar predators. We report here that foragers of different native Asian honey bee species can detect and use a specialized alarm pheromone component, benzyl acetate (BA), to avoid danger. We analysed the volatile alarm pheromone produced by attacked workers of the most abundant native Asian honey bee, Apis cerana and tested the responses of other bee species to these alarm signals. As compared to nest guards, A. cerana foragers produced 3.38 fold higher levels of BA. In foragers, BA and (E)-dec-2-en-1-yl acetate (DA) generated the strongest antennal electrophysiological responses. BA was also the only compound that alerted flying foragers and inhibited A. cerana foraging. BA thereby decreased A. cerana foraging for risky sites. Interestingly, although BA occurs only in trace amounts and is nearly absent in sympatric honeybee species (respectively only 0.07% and 0.44% as much in A. dorsata and A. florea), these floral generalists detected and avoided BA as strongly as they did to their own alarm pheromone on natural inflorescences. These results demonstrate that competing pollinators can take advantage of alarm signal information provided by other species.

Behavioural response of adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) to predator and conspecific alarm cues: evidence of additive effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Di Rocco, Richard T.; Imre, Istvan; Johnson, Nicholas; Brown, Grant B

2016-01-01

Sea lampreys Petromyzon marinus, an invasive pest in the Upper Great Lakes, avoid odours that represent danger in their habitat. These odours include conspecific alarm cues and predator cues, like 2-phenylethylamine hydrochloride (PEA HCl), which is found in the urine of mammalian predators. Whether conspecific alarm cues and predator cues function additively or synergistically when mixed together is unknown. The objectives of this experimental study were to determine if the avoidance response of sea lamprey to PEA HCl is proportional to the concentration delivered, and if the avoidance response to the combination of a predator cue (PEA HCl) and sea lamprey alarm cue is additive. To accomplish the first objective, groups of ten sea lampreys were placed in an artificial stream channel and presented with stepwise concentrations of PEA HCl ranging from 5 × 10−8 to 5 × 10−10 M and a deionized water control. Sea lampreys exhibited an increase in their avoidance behaviour in response to increasing concentrations of PEA HCl. To accomplish the second objective, sea lampreys were exposed to PEA HCl, conspecific alarm cue and a combination of the two. Sea lampreys responded to the combination of predator cue and conspecific alarm cue in an additive manner.

Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

PubMed

Baum, Seth D; Haqq-Misra, Jacob D; Karmosky, Chris

2012-06-01

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

Effects of climate change on forest vegetation in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Mahalovich, Mary Frances; Bollenbacher, Barry L.; Manning, Mary E.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Jain, Terrie B.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Larson, Andrew J.; Webster, Meredith M.

2018-01-01

The projected rapid changes in climate will affect the unique vegetation assemblages of the Northern Rockies region in myriad ways, both directly through shifts in vegetation growth, mortality, and regeneration, and indirectly through changes in disturbance regimes and interactions with changes in other ecosystem processes, such as hydrology, snow dynamics, and exotic invasions (Bonan 2008; Hansen and Phillips 2015; Hansen et al. 2001; Notaro et al. 2007). These impacts, taken collectively, could change the way vegetation is managed by public land agencies in this area. Some species may be in danger of rapid decreases in abundance, while others may undergo range expansion (Landhäusser et al. 2010). New vegetation communities may form, while historical vegetation complexes may simply shift to other areas of the landscape or become rare. Juxtaposed with climate change concerns are the consequences of other land management policies and past activities, such as fire exclusion, fuels treatments, and grazing. A thorough assessment of the responses of vegetation to projected climate change is needed, along with an evaluation of the vulnerability of important species, communities, and vegetation-related resources that may be influenced by the effects, both direct and indirect, of climate change. This assessment must also account for past management actions and current vegetation conditions and their interactions with future climates.

Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-10-01

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

PubMed

Freeman, Mark C; Wagner, Gernot; Zeckhauser, Richard J

2015-11-28

Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity--how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the 'likely' range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the 'best estimate'. We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and excise a best estimate. Intuitively, it might seem that a lower bottom would be good news. Here we ask: when might apparently good news about climate sensitivity in fact be bad news in the sense that it lowers societal well-being? The lowered bottom value also implies higher uncertainty about the temperature increase, definitely bad news. Under reasonable assumptions, both the lowering of the lower bound and the removal of the 'best estimate' may well be bad news. © 2015 The Author(s).

Flight Test Evaluation of AVOID I (Avionic Observation of Intruder Danger) Collision Avoidance System

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-05-01

memory registers A through G ( 2048 bit shift registers) for each of the basic altitude bands (1+26, 113 1+6) to store intruder responses. Since the 1...af EV 11z iIIV~ ~l~~ NADlC-75056-60_ _ _- 2 w< -I- LI- ~jw 0IU oo2 W I aJ W %L6fI9~~AVdI tVOV~ aN9Ao ccH % VdI I11813iA-di V GN Ed a3IV0 %AIII1IilV11W...tei mix ;;; c le z - Is’ %~~~~~~~~~~;s AJIiV1 VdI ~ %AIIV~ v~iO VIR 1ý 123 Lz NADC-7056-6 w, M w o ~2IV ONY Ed CIRNIGVNOO at p 00 CLt % 118I3iAVldSIC3

Water striders adjust leg movement speed to optimize takeoff velocity for their morphology.

PubMed

Yang, Eunjin; Son, Jae Hak; Lee, Sang-Im; Jablonski, Piotr G; Kim, Ho-Young

2016-12-07

Water striders are water-walking insects that can jump upwards from the water surface. Quick jumps allow striders to avoid sudden dangers such as predators' attacks, and therefore their jumping is expected to be shaped by natural selection for optimal performance. Related species with different morphological constraints could require different jumping mechanics to successfully avoid predation. Here we show that jumping striders tune their leg rotation speed to reach the maximum jumping speed that water surface allows. We find that the leg stroke speeds of water strider species with different leg morphologies correspond to mathematically calculated morphology-specific optima that maximize vertical takeoff velocity by fully exploiting the capillary force of water. These results improve the understanding of correlated evolution between morphology and leg movements in small jumping insects, and provide a theoretical basis to develop biomimetic technology in semi-aquatic environments.

Water striders adjust leg movement speed to optimize takeoff velocity for their morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Eunjin; Son, Jae Hak; Lee, Sang-Im; Jablonski, Piotr G.; Kim, Ho-Young

2016-12-01

Water striders are water-walking insects that can jump upwards from the water surface. Quick jumps allow striders to avoid sudden dangers such as predators' attacks, and therefore their jumping is expected to be shaped by natural selection for optimal performance. Related species with different morphological constraints could require different jumping mechanics to successfully avoid predation. Here we show that jumping striders tune their leg rotation speed to reach the maximum jumping speed that water surface allows. We find that the leg stroke speeds of water strider species with different leg morphologies correspond to mathematically calculated morphology-specific optima that maximize vertical takeoff velocity by fully exploiting the capillary force of water. These results improve the understanding of correlated evolution between morphology and leg movements in small jumping insects, and provide a theoretical basis to develop biomimetic technology in semi-aquatic environments.

Are needs to manage uncertainty and threat associated with political conservatism or ideological extremity?

PubMed

Jost, John T; Napier, Jaime L; Thorisdottir, Hulda; Gosling, Samuel D; Palfai, Tibor P; Ostafin, Brian

2007-07-01

Three studies are conducted to assess the uncertainty- threat model of political conservatism, which posits that psychological needs to manage uncertainty and threat are associated with political orientation. Results from structural equation models provide consistent support for the hypothesis that uncertainty avoidance (e.g., need for order, intolerance of ambiguity, and lack of openness to experience) and threat management (e.g., death anxiety, system threat, and perceptions of a dangerous world) each contributes independently to conservatism (vs. liberalism). No support is obtained for alternative models, which predict that uncertainty and threat management are associated with ideological extremism or extreme forms of conservatism only. Study 3 also reveals that resistance to change fully mediates the association between uncertainty avoidance and conservatism, whereas opposition to equality partially mediates the association between threat and conservatism. Implications for understanding the epistemic and existential bases of political orientation are discussed.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Governing for a Healthy Population: Towards an Understanding of How Decision-Making Will Determine Our Global Health in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Friel, Sharon; Ebi, Kristie; Butler, Colin D.; Miller, Fiona; McMichael, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

Enhancing the adaptive capacity of individuals, communities, institutions and nations is pivotal to protecting and improving human health and well-being in the face of systemic social inequity plus dangerous climate change. However, research on the determinants of adaptive capacity in relation to health, particularly concerning the role of governance, is in its infancy. This paper highlights the intersections between global health, climate change and governance. It presents an overview of these key concerns, their relation to each other, and the potential that a greater understanding of governance may present opportunities to strengthen policy and action responses to the health effects of climate change. Important parallels between addressing health inequities and sustainable development practices in the face of global environmental change are also highlighted. We propose that governance can be investigated through two key lenses within the earth system governance theoretical framework; agency and architecture. These two governance concepts can be evaluated using methods of social network research and policy analysis using case studies and is the subject of further research. PMID:22470278

Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

2017-04-01

Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref. ). However, it is generally thought that benefits of mitigation are hidden by internal climate variability until later in the century. Here we show that if the likelihood of extremely hot seasons is considered, the benefits of mitigation emerge more quickly than previously thought. It takes less than 20 years of emissions reductions in many regions for the likelihood of extreme seasonal warmth to reduce by more than half following initiation of mitigation. Additionally we show that the latest possible date at which the probability of extreme seasonal temperatures will be halved through emissions reductions consistent with the 2 °C target is in the 2040s. Exposure to climate risk is therefore reduced markedly and rapidly with substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the early mitigation needed to limit eventual warming below potentially dangerous levels benefits societies in the nearer term not just in the longer-term future.

Air pollution-related health and climate benefits of clean cookstove programs in Mozambique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anenberg, Susan C.; Henze, Daven K.; Lacey, Forrest; Irfan, Ans; Kinney, Patrick; Kleiman, Gary; Pillarisetti, Ajay

2017-02-01

Approximately 95% of households in Mozambique burn solid fuels for cooking, contributing to elevated indoor and outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and subsequent health and climate impacts. Little is known about the potential health and climate benefits of various approaches for expanding the use of cleaner stoves and fuels in Mozambique. We use state-of-the-science methods to provide a first-order estimation of potential air pollution-related health and climate benefits of four illustrative scenarios in which traditional cooking fires and stoves are displaced by cleaner and more efficient technologies. For rural areas, we find that a 10% increase in the number of households using forced draft wood-burning stoves could achieve >2.5 times more health benefits from reduced PM2.5 exposure (200 avoided premature deaths and 14 000 avoided disability adjusted life years, DALYs, over a three-year project lifetime) compared to natural draft stoves in the same households, assuming 70% of households use the new technology for both cases. Expanding use of LPG stoves to 10% of households in five major cities is estimated to avoid 160 premature deaths and 11 000 DALYs from reduced PM2.5 exposure for a three-year intervention, assuming 60% of households use the new stove. Advanced charcoal stoves would achieve ∽80% of the PM2.5-related health benefits of LPG stoves. Approximately 2%-5% additional health benefits would result from reduced ambient PM2.5, depending on the scenario. Although climate impacts are uncertain, we estimate that all scenarios would reduce expected climate change-related temperature increases from continued solid fuel use by 4%-6% over the next century. All results are based on an assumed adjustment factor of 0.8 to convert from laboratory-based emission reduction measurements to exposure reductions, which could be optimistic in reality given potential for continued use of the traditional stove. We conclude that cleaner cooking stoves in Mozambique can achieve health and climate benefits, though both are uncertain and local information about baseline and intervention PM2.5 exposure levels are needed.

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving future management decisions and promoting sustainable practices at SRS.

Climate Change and Health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public Health Adaptation is Needed to Address Future Risks.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Ebi, Kristie L; Culp, Derrin; Redlener, Irwin

2015-08-11

The impacts of climate change on human health have been documented globally and in the United States. Numerous studies project greater morbidity and mortality as a result of extreme weather events and other climate-sensitive hazards. Public health impacts on the U.S. Gulf Coast may be severe as the region is expected to experience increases in extreme temperatures, sea level rise, and possibly fewer but more intense hurricanes. Through myriad pathways, climate change is likely to make the Gulf Coast less hospitable and more dangerous for its residents, and may prompt substantial migration from and into the region. Public health impacts may be further exacerbated by the concentration of people and infrastructure, as well as the region's coastal geography. Vulnerable populations, including the very young, elderly, and socioeconomically disadvantaged may face particularly high threats to their health and well-being. This paper provides an overview of potential public health impacts of climate variability and change on the Gulf Coast, with a focus on the region's unique vulnerabilities, and outlines recommendations for improving the region's ability to minimize the impacts of climate-sensitive hazards. Public health adaptation aimed at improving individual, public health system, and infrastructure resilience is urgently needed to meet the challenges climate change may pose to the Gulf Coast in the coming decades.

The backup is active in Alzheimer's disease: a hypothesis from problem theory.

PubMed

Burnand, Gordon

2015-03-01

Problem theory distinguishes between six general problems of everyday life, which people work through in turn during childhood, learning to switch between them. One of them requires the protection of a cut-out and an override. People who develop Alzheimer's disease (AD), and apolipoprotein allele epsilon 4 carriers, are preoccupied with this problem, or readily switch back to it. It is the freedom problem, of raising hope or confidence of freedom or power to control. Here people try to raise hope of success with any task on which attention happens to rest. This indiscriminateness means that there is no basis for giving up on a task, or for avoiding dangerous environments. Thus the cut-out is needed when someone becomes stuck on a mental task and the override is needed so as to help in avoiding danger. Activity relevant to the freedom problem is confined to the left hemisphere and the right hemisphere operates the cut-out and override. In providing these two forms of protection the right hemisphere can be said to act as a backup. Accordingly EEG, metabolism, and atrophy findings indicate that both cut-out and override are active in mild clinical impairment, especially among patients who later develop AD. The pattern of atrophy of AD matches what would be expected from disuse caused by an overactive cut-out followed by an overactive override. A parallel loss of testosterone might contribute to the weakening of resistance to infections leading to autoimmune effects. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Antipredatory reaction of the leopard gecko Eublepharis macularius to snake predators

PubMed Central

Landová, Eva; Musilová, Veronika; Polák, Jakub; Sedláčková, Kristýna; Frynta, Daniel

2016-01-01

Abstract Ability to recognize a risk of predation and react with adaptive antipredatory behavior can enhance fitness, but has some costs as well. Animals can either specifically react on the most dangerous predators (threat-sensitive avoidance) or they have safe but costly general wariness avoiding all potential predators. The level of threat may depend on the predator’s foraging ecology and distribution with the prey with sympatric and specialist species being the most dangerous. We used 2 choice trials to investigate antipredatory behavior of captive born and wild-caught leopard geckos confronted with different snake predators from 2 families (Colubridae, Boidae) varying in foraging ecology and sympatric/allopatric distribution with the geckos. Predator-naïve subadult individuals have general wariness, explore both chemically and visually, and perform antipredatory postures toward a majority of snake predators regardless of their sympatry/allopatry or food specialization. The most exaggerated antipredatory postures in both subadult and adult geckos were toward 2 sympatric snake species, the spotted whip snake Hemorrhois ravergieri, an active forager, and the red sand boa Eryx johnii, a subterranean snake with a sit-and-wait strategy. In contrast, also subterranean but allopatric the Kenyan sand boa Eryx colubrinus did not elicit any antipredatory reaction. We conclude that the leopard gecko possesses an innate general antipredatory reaction to different species of snake predators, while a specific reaction to 2 particular sympatric species can be observed. Moreover, adult wild caught geckos show lower reactivity compared with the captive born ones, presumably due to an experience of a real predation event that can hardly be simulated under laboratory conditions. PMID:29491933

From Threat to Fear: The neural organization of defensive fear systems in humans

PubMed Central

Mobbs, Dean; Marchant, Jennifer L; Hassabis, Demis; Seymour, Ben; Tan, Geoffrey; Gray, Marcus; Petrovic, Predrag; Dolan, Raymond J.; Frith, Christopher D.

2009-01-01

Post-encounter and circa-strike defensive contexts represent two adaptive responses to potential and imminent danger. In the context of a predator, the post-encounter reflects the initial detection of the potential threat, whilst the circa-strike is associated with direct predatory attack. We used fMRI to investigate the neural organization of anticipation and avoidance of artificial predators with high or low probability of capturing the subject across analogous post-encounter and circa-strike contexts of threat. Consistent with defense systems models, post-encounter threat elicited activity in forebrain areas including subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (sgACC), hippocampus and amygdala. Conversely, active avoidance during circa-strike threat increased activity in mid-dorsal ACC and midbrain areas. During the circa-strike condition, subjects showed increased coupling between the midbrain and mid-dorsal ACC and decreased coupling with the sgACC, amygdala and hippocampus. Greater activity was observed in the right pregenual ACC for high compared to low probability of capture during circa-strike threat. This region showed decreased coupling with the amygdala, insula and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Finally, we found that locomotor errors correlated with subjective reports of panic for the high compared to low probability of capture during the circa-strike threat and these panic-related locomotor errors were correlated with midbrain activity. These findings support models suggesting that higher forebrain areas are involved in early threat responses, including the assignment and control of fear, whereas as imminent danger results in fast, likely “hard-wired”, defensive reactions mediated by the midbrain. PMID:19793982

Greenhouse Development Rights. An approach to the global climate regime that takes climate protection seriously while also preserving the right to human development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Athanasiou, T.; Kartha, S.; Baer, P.

2006-11-15

This brief paper introduces a new approach to the global climate regime, one designed to recognize the urgency of the climate crisis, while at the same time embracing the fundamental right to human development. This 'Greenhouse Development Rights' approach is not primarily defended on ethical grounds. It's core justification, rather, is a realistic one - our claim is that this approach, or something like it, is needed if we're to break the global impasse over developmental equity in a climate constrained world. We put forward this new approach not because we believe that it will be readily adopted as themore » foundation of the post-2012 regime. Rather, we intend it as a standard of comparison, a reference framework that marks out the steps that must be part of an effective climate regime, while refusing to prejudge which of them will or will not ultimately be deemed politically acceptable. Against this reference framework, given regime proposals can be measured to determine how realistic they are, from the standpoint of genuinely addressing the North/South impasse and having a chance of preventing a climate catastrophe. The climate crisis, as most everyone in the climate community knows, is upon us. Still, the pace of our response has been profoundly inadequate, so this paper will begin with the blunt truth. The science now tells us that we're pushing beyond mere 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system', and are rather on the verge of committing to catastrophic interference.« less

The health effects of climate change: a survey of recent quantitative research.

PubMed

Grasso, Margherita; Manera, Matteo; Chiabai, Aline; Markandya, Anil

2012-05-01

In recent years there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. In particular, a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions. First, can historical data be of some help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate quantitative models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases, with malaria as a case study. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of quantitative model considered, namely time series models, panel data and spatial models, and non-statistical approaches. Since many different disciplines and approaches are involved, a broader view is necessary in order to provide a better understanding of the interactions between climate and health. In this respect, our paper also presents a critical summary of the recent literature related to more general aspects of the impacts of climate changes on human health, such as: the economics of climate change; how to manage the health effects of climate change; the establishment of Early Warning Systems for infectious diseases.

The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

PubMed Central

Grasso, Margherita; Manera, Matteo; Chiabai, Aline; Markandya, Anil

2012-01-01

In recent years there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. In particular, a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions. First, can historical data be of some help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate quantitative models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases, with malaria as a case study. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of quantitative model considered, namely time series models, panel data and spatial models, and non-statistical approaches. Since many different disciplines and approaches are involved, a broader view is necessary in order to provide a better understanding of the interactions between climate and health. In this respect, our paper also presents a critical summary of the recent literature related to more general aspects of the impacts of climate changes on human health, such as: the economics of climate change; how to manage the health effects of climate change; the establishment of Early Warning Systems for infectious diseases. PMID:22754455

Arctic climate tipping points.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M

2012-02-01

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

[Tick borne encephalitis and enviromental changes].

PubMed

Zajkowska, Joanna; Malzahn, Elzbieta; Kondrusik, Maciej; Grygorczuk, Sambor; Pancewicz, Sławomir S; Kuśmierczyk, Justyna; Czupryna, Piotr; Hermanowska-Szpakowicz, Teresa

2006-01-01

Currently observed markedly increased incidence of various tick borne diseases in many parts of Europe is due to documented climatic changes as well anthropogenic influence on habitat structure. One of the analyzed factors is tendency to increase of the spring temperatures, especially in the third decade of the April. Such conditions (spring temperatures above 7-10 degrees C) let the nymphs and larvae of Ixodes ricinus to feed simultaneously on rodents. This increases the risk of infection of Ixodes ricinus with TBE virus, so dangerous for humans.

Anthropogenic ``Global Warming'' Alarmism: Illuminating some Scientific and Methodological Flaws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, Larry

2009-10-01

There continues to be an increasing number of scientists and public figures around the world who are challenging the dominant political- and mediadriven claims that have been bolstered by so-called ``consensus'' scientific views -- that dangerous ``global warming/climate change'' is caused primarily by human-produced carbon dioxide. This general talk will show that the weight of scientific evidence strongly contradicts the alarmist claims. It will also explain what are some of the methodological flaws that continue to threaten the scientific method.

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Gornitz, Vivien; Bader, Daniel A.; Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Climate, Santa Ana Winds and Autumn Wildfires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, Anthony L.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Brown, Timothy J.; Hall, Beth L.; Riddle, Laurence G.

2004-08-01

Wildfires periodically burn large areas of chaparral and adjacent woodlands in autumn and winter in southern California. These fires often occur in conjunction with Santa Ana weather events, which combine high winds and low humidity, and tend to follow a wet winter rainy season. Because conditions fostering large fall and winter wildfires in California are the result of large-scale patterns in atmospheric circulation, the same dangerous conditions are likely to occur over a wide area at the same time. Furthermore, over a century of watershed reserve management and fire suppression have promoted fuel accumulations, helping to shape one of the most conflagration-prone environments in the world. Combined with a complex topography and a large human population, southern Californian ecology and climate pose a considerable physical and societal challenge to fire management.

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Bumblebees (Bombus terrestris) use social information as an indicator of safety in dangerous environments

PubMed Central

Dawson, Erika H.; Chittka, Lars

2014-01-01

Avoiding predation is one of the most important challenges that an animal faces. Several anti-predation behaviours can be employed, yet simply using the presence of conspecifics can be a good signal of safety in an environment with potential predation hazards. Here, we show, for the first time, that past experience of predation causes bumblebees (Bombus terrestris) to aggregate with conspecifics, facilitating the identification of safe foraging patches. Bees were trained to differentiate between flowers that harboured predators and flowers that were predator free. When test subjects were subsequently presented solely with the previously predator-infested flower species, there was a significant preference to only land on flowers occupied by other feeding conspecifics. Yet, when safe flowers were made available to subjects previously entrained to discriminate safe from predator-occupied flowers, subjects ignored other bees and the social information potentially provided by them, demonstrating that attraction towards conspecifics is confined to dangerous situations. Our findings demonstrate a previously unknown social interaction in pollinators which may have important implications for plant–pollinator interactions. PMID:24789891

A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

2017-01-01

A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

[A correct understanding of preservatives in eye drops].

PubMed

Liu, Zuguo; Huang, Caihong

2015-09-01

Eye drops are the most commonly used preparations in ophthalmology. Preservatives are usually added in order to protect eye drops against pathogenic organisms and increase the solubility of the drugs in multi-dose containers. Ophthalmologists have paid a lot of attention to the preservatives in eye drops because they remain one of the main reasons for ocular surface damage, and even may lead to serious visual impairment in patients with inappropriate use of eye drops. However, it should be noted that the dangers of preservatives become overstated nowadays. It is necessary to completely evaluate the effects of preservatives in ophthalmic preparations, so that ophthalmologists can guide patients to correctly select eye drops containing preservatives and avoid dangerous side effects, according to their eye disease situation, state of tear function and ocular surface changes, cultural background and financial income, cost and benefit and convenience of the use of drugs, and other factors. The direction of the future development in this field is to establish the clinical guideline for use of eye drops containing preservatives, carry out continuing education courses on preservatives and develop ideal preservatives.

CAEP position statement on cellphone use while driving.

PubMed

Huang, Dayan; Kapur, Atul K; Ling, Patrick; Purssell, Roy; Henneberry, Ryan J; Champagne, Chantelle R; Lee, Victoria K; Francescutti, Louis H

2010-07-01

Distracted driving caused by cellphone use is a significant source of needless injuries. These injuries place unnecessary financial burden, emotional stress and health care resource misuse on society. This paper states the Canadian Association of Emergency Physician's (CAEP's) position on cellphone use while driving. In recent years, numerous studies were conducted on the danger of cellphone use while driving. Research has shown that cellphone use while driving negatively impacts cognitive functions, visual fields, reaction time and overall driving performances. Some studies found that cellphone use is as dangerous as driving under the influence of alcohol. Moreover, vehicle crash rates were shown to be significantly higher when drivers used cellphones. Countermeasures have been implemented in recent years. Over 50 countries worldwide have laws limiting the use of cellphones while driving. Six Canadian provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Saskatchewan, currently have legislation prohibiting cellphone use. Other provinces are considering implementing similar bans. As emergency physicians, we must advocate for injury prevention. Cell phone related road traumas are avoidable. CAEP supports all measures to ban cellphone use while driving.

Multivariate calibration in Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy quantitative analysis: The dangers of a 'black box' approach and how to avoid them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safi, A.; Campanella, B.; Grifoni, E.; Legnaioli, S.; Lorenzetti, G.; Pagnotta, S.; Poggialini, F.; Ripoll-Seguer, L.; Hidalgo, M.; Palleschi, V.

2018-06-01

The introduction of multivariate calibration curve approach in Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) quantitative analysis has led to a general improvement of the LIBS analytical performances, since a multivariate approach allows to exploit the redundancy of elemental information that are typically present in a LIBS spectrum. Software packages implementing multivariate methods are available in the most diffused commercial and open source analytical programs; in most of the cases, the multivariate algorithms are robust against noise and operate in unsupervised mode. The reverse of the coin of the availability and ease of use of such packages is the (perceived) difficulty in assessing the reliability of the results obtained which often leads to the consideration of the multivariate algorithms as 'black boxes' whose inner mechanism is supposed to remain hidden to the user. In this paper, we will discuss the dangers of a 'black box' approach in LIBS multivariate analysis, and will discuss how to overcome them using the chemical-physical knowledge that is at the base of any LIBS quantitative analysis.

Collective Threat, Trust, and the Sense of Personal Control

PubMed Central

Ross, Catherine E.

2013-01-01

A threatening and dangerous neighborhood may produce distressing emotions of anxiety, anger, and depression among the individuals who live there because residents find these neighborhoods subjectively alienating. The author introduces the idea that neighborhood disorder indicates collective threat, which is alienating—shaping perceptions of powerlessness and mistrust. The author presents a theory of trust that posits that mistrust develops in places where resources are scarce and threat is common and among individuals with few resources and who feel powerless to avoid or manage the threat. Perceived powerlessness develops with exposure to uncontrollable, negative conditions such as crime, danger, and threat in one's neighborhood. Thus, neighborhood disorder, common in disadvantaged neighborhoods, influences mistrust directly and indirectly by increasing perceptions of powerlessness among residents, which amplify disorder's effect on mistrust. The very thing needed to protect disadvantaged residents from the negative effects of their environment—a sense of personal control—is eroded by that environment in a process that the author calls structural amplification. Powerlessness and mistrust in turn are distressing, increasing levels of anxiety, anger, and depression. PMID:21799185

Membrane repair and immunological danger

PubMed Central

Andrews, Norma W.

2005-01-01

Antigens are able to elicit productive immune responses only when second signals are provided by adjuvant molecules. It is well established that exogenously acquired, pathogen-associated molecular patterns fulfil this adjuvant role when recognized by specific receptors on antigen-presenting cells. Recent evidence points to the existence of another class of adjuvant, which is apparently released from injured cells. Such endogenous adjuvants, referred to as 'danger' signals, could alert the immune system to situations that cause cell damage, but not necessarily those that involve infections. Endogenous adjuvants provide a good explanation for immune responses generated against tumours and autologous tissues, but it has been difficult to explain how a constant activation of the immune system is avoided, considering the frequency at which cells are injured in vivo. Here, we suggest that the efficiency with which cells reseal wounds in their plasma membrane might be an important factor in the balance between tolerance and autoimmunity. Recent observations in synaptotagmin-VII-deficient mice suggest that defective membrane repair could lead to autoimmunity in tissues that are more susceptible to mechanical injury. PMID:16138093

The Volcano Adventure Guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Rosaly

2005-02-01

This guide contains vital information for anyone wishing to visit, explore, and photograph active volcanoes safely and enjoyably. Following an introduction that discusses eruption styles of different types of volcanoes and how to prepare for an exploratory trip that avoids volcanic dangers, the book presents guidelines to visiting 42 different volcanoes around the world. It is filled with practical information that includes tour itineraries, maps, transportation details, and warnings of possible non-volcanic dangers. Three appendices direct the reader to a wealth of further volcano resources in a volume that will fascinate amateur enthusiasts and professional volcanologists alike. Rosaly Lopes is a planetary geology and volcanology specialist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. In addition to her curatorial and research work, she has lectured extensively in England and Brazil and written numerous popular science articles. She received a Latinas in Science Award from the Comision Feminil Mexicana Nacional in 1991 and since 1992, has been a co-organizer of the United Nations/European Space Agency/The Planetary Society yearly conferences on Basic Science for the Benefit of Developing Countries.

Can there be science-based precaution?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Charles

2006-10-01

'Science-based precaution' is possible in logic if not in politics, and should be a normal part of risk management. It should balance the risks and benefits of innovation, or equivalently, specify the price one is willing to pay to avoid risk. The Precaution Principle states that the absence of scientific proof does not preclude precautionary action—or, in its stronger version, that it requires such action. This principle is a useful counterweight to the insistence on rigorous scientific proof, but focuses on costs and risks to the exclusion of benefits. It expresses 'look before you leap', but not 'nothing ventured, nothing gained'. To facilitate adaptive management, we propose a complementary principle: 'precautionary action should not unreasonably interfere with innovation that promises major benefits, until its dangers and benefits are well understood'. In international trade law, we propose that scientific evidence presented in support of discriminatory measures that would otherwise violate the world trade regime—such as the de facto European Union moratorium on importing genetically modified crops—be required to suffice to support a 'reasonable belief' of danger to human health or the environment.

Spatial Models for Prediction and Early Warning of Aedes aegypti Proliferation from Data on Climate Change and Variability in Cuba.

PubMed

Ortiz, Paulo L; Rivero, Alina; Linares, Yzenia; Pérez, Alina; Vázquez, Juan R

2015-04-01

Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.

Twists and turns in the body: an imaging spectrum.

PubMed

Luk, Shiobhon Y; Fung, K H

2010-10-01

Life is full of twists and turns. These surprises can sometimes be wonderfully invigorating. Twists and turns can also occur in the body, however, sometimes with dangerous consequences. Torsion and volvulus are important causes of acute abdominal pain. The clinical symptoms and signs associated with torsion and volvulus are often non-specific and are difficult to diagnose clinically. Clinicians frequently rely on imaging methods to make the diagnosis. Prompt and accurate diagnosis is important to avoid the life-threatening complications of torsion and volvulus. Therefore, it is helpful to be familiar with the features of torsion and volvulus.

Youth survival: addressing the role of promoting the acquisition of the prosocial triad and other survival skills in youth.

PubMed

Pratt, Helen D; Pratt, Brandy M; Sackett, Mila

2007-06-01

This article addresses the issue of teaching youth skills that will help them to maximize opportunities and positive consequences and minimize exposure to negative consequences in their lives. These skills will allow them to mature into mentally healthy, productive members of society. Essential skills that are critical to allow this maturational process include developing prosocial skills; the ability to recognize, discriminate the level of threat, and use strategies to avoid danger; and the ability to adapt to the changing demands of his or her environment.

Post Deflection Impact Risk Analysis of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggl, S.; Hestroffer, D.

2017-09-01

Collisions between potentially hazardous near-Earth objects and our planet are among the few natural disasters that can be avoided by human intervention. The complexity of such an endeavor necessitates an asteroid orbit deflection test mission, however, ensuring all relevant knowledge is present when an asteroid on a collision course with the Earth is indeed discovered. The double asteroid redirection test (DART) mission concept currently investigated by NASA would serve such a purpose. The aim of our research is to make certain that DART does not turn a previously harmless asteroid into a potentially dangerous one.

[Errors and dangers in intestinal sutures and anastomoses using stapler suture instruments (EEA, TA55, TA90, GIA)].

PubMed

Gögler, E

1985-01-01

In different tables the most important faults with enteral sutures and anastomoses in general and at special operations are demonstrated: end-to-end anastomoses with congruent diameter, anastomoses with different diameters, B I, B II, low anterior resection, esophago-jejunostomy. Only if the surgeon has experience in standard technique, faults and risks with mechanical staplers and manual sutures, the advantage-progress of staplers will be effective avoiding special risks. Surgeons without experience may produce real catastrophes which may turn out hopeless without training in manual suture technique.

Corporal punishment.

PubMed

Bauman, L J; Friedman, S B

1998-04-01

Pediatricians differ on the optimal ways to discipline children. The major controversy surrounds the use of corporal punishment. In an effort to resolve this controversy, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) cosponsored a conference entitled "The Short and Long-Term Consequences of Corporal Punishment" in February 1996. This article reviews scientific literature on corporal punishment and summarizes the proceedings from the conference. The authors conclude that, although the research data are inadequate to resolve the controversy, there are areas of consensus. Practitioners should assess the spanking practices of the parent they see and counsel parents to avoid those that are, by AAP consensus, dangerous, ineffective, or abusive.

Diagnosis: Michael Moore--media paint filmmaker to be health care system's main problem.

PubMed

Kao, Caroline

2008-01-01

The media reporting on Sicko, Michael Moore's documentary about the failures of the U.S. health care system, provides an example of how corporate media continue to twist and restrict the much-needed debate on health care reform. Aside from an occasional concession that having 46 million uninsured Americans is indeed problematic, the media's hype-filled conversation on health care avoids the issues and echoes old myths about the dangers of "government-run" and "socialized" health care. But in the face of the media demonization, universal health care is remarkably popular among the public.

Climate change and trace gases.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

2007-07-15

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

High-protein goat's milk diet identified through newborn screening: clinical warning of a potentially dangerous dietetic practice.

PubMed

Maines, Evelina; Gugelmo, Giorgia; Tadiotto, Elisa; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Campostrini, Natascia; Pasini, Andrea; Ion-Popa, Florina; Vincenzi, Monica; Teofoli, Francesca; Camilot, Marta; Bordugo, Andrea

2017-10-01

Breast-feeding is an unequalled way of providing optimal food for infants' healthy growth and development and the WHO recommends that infants should be exclusively breast-fed for the first 6 months of life. For mothers who are unable to breast-feed or who decide not to, infant formulas are the safest alternative. Despite recommendations, it is possible that parents make potentially harmful nutritional choices for their children because of cultural beliefs or misinformation on infant nutrition. We describe a possible health risk of not breast-feeding, highlighting a potentially dangerous dietetic practice. Design/Setting/Subjects We report the case of a newborn who was fed with undiluted goat's milk because her mother could not breast-feed and was not aware of infant formulas. The dietary mistake was detected because of a positive expanded newborn screening result, characterized by severe hypertyrosinaemia with high methionine and phenylalanine levels, a pattern suggestive of severe liver impairment. The pattern of plasma amino acids was related to a goat's milk diet, because of its very different composition compared with human milk and infant formula. Our experience demonstrates that, when breast-feeding is not possible or is not exclusive, infants may be at risk of dangerous nutritional practices, including diets with very high protein content, such as a goat's milk diet. Families of not breast-fed infants may need appropriate advice on safe alternatives for infant nutrition to avoid the risks of inappropriate diets.

How people evaluate others with social anxiety disorder: A comparison to depression and general mental illness stigma.

PubMed

Anderson, Kristin N; Jeon, Andrew B; Blenner, Jordan A; Wiener, Richard L; Hope, Debra A

2015-03-01

Despite the availability of effective interventions, most individuals with social anxiety disorder do not seek treatment. Given their fear of negative evaluation, socially anxious individuals might be especially susceptible to stigma concerns, a recognized barrier for mental health treatment. However, very little is known about the stigma specific to social anxiety disorder. In a design similar to Feldman and Crandall (2007), university undergraduate students read vignettes about target individuals with a generic mental illness label, major depressive disorder, and social anxiety disorder. Subjects rated each of 3 people in the vignettes on social distance and 17 dimensions including dangerousness, heritability and prevalence of the disorder, and gender ratio. Results indicated that being male and not having experience with mental health treatment was associated with somewhat greater preferred social distance. Multiple regression analyses revealed that being embarrassed by the disorder and dangerousness predicted social distance across all 3 vignettes. The vignette for social anxiety disorder had the most complex model and included work impairment, more common among women, and more avoidable. These results have implications for understanding the specific aspects of the stigma associated with social anxiety disorder. Public service messages to reduce stigma should focus on more accurate information about dangerousness and mental illness, given this is an established aspect of mental illness stigma. More nuanced messages about social anxiety might be best incorporated into the treatment referral process and as part of treatment. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Database for chemical weapons detection: first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellecci, C.; Gaudio, P.; Gelfusa, M.; Martellucci, S.; Richetta, M.; Ventura, P.; Antonucci, A.; Pasquino, F.; Ricci, V.; Sassolini, A.

2008-10-01

The quick increase of terrorism and asymmetric war is leading towards new needs involving defense and security. Nowadays we have to fight several kind of threats and use of chemical weapons against civil or military objectives is one of the most dangerous. For this reason it is necessary to find equipment, know-how and information that are useful in order to detect and identify dangerous molecules as quickly and far away as possible, so to minimize damage. Lidar/Dial are some of the most powerful optical technologies. Dial technology use two different wavelengths, in order to measure concentration profile of an investigated molecule. For this reason it is needed a "fingerprint" database which consists of an exhaustive collection of absorption coefficients data so to identify each molecule avoiding confusion with interfering ones. Nowadays there is not such a collection of data in scientific and technical literature. We used an FT-IR spectrometer and a CO2 laser source for absorption spectroscopy measurements using cells filled with the investigated molecules. The CO2 source is the transmitter of our DIAL facility. In this way we can make a proper "fingerprint" database necessary to identify dangerous molecules. The CO2 laser has been chosen because it is eye safe and, mainly, because it covers a spectral band where there is good absorption for this kind of molecules. In this paper IR spectra of mustard will be presented and compared to other substances which may interfere producing a false alarm. Methodology, experimental setup and first results are described.

Code of Silence: Students’ Perceptions of School Climate and Willingness to Intervene in a Peer's Dangerous Plan

PubMed Central

Syvertsen, Amy K.; Flanagan, Constance A.; Stout, Michael D.

2009-01-01

The current study presented 1,933 adolescents from 13 schools with a scenario about a hypothetical peer's plan to “do something dangerous” at school and asked how likely they would be to respond with four different actions: intervene directly, tell a teacher or principal, discuss it with a friend but not an adult, and do nothing. High school students were less likely than those in middle school to say they would approach the peer directly or confide in a teacher or principal. Students were most likely to favor taking action on their own over all of the other response strategies. Students with positive perceptions of their schools were more likely to say they would do something rather than ignore their peer's dangerous intentions. These relationships were mediated by students’ beliefs that confiding in a teacher may have unfavorable consequences. Findings from this study support the important role schools play in creating a culture where students take responsibility for one another. PMID:20126300

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

2016-04-28

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Long-Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shawki, Dilshad; Field, Robert D.; Tippett, Michael K.; Saharjo, Bambang Hero; Albar, Israr; Atmoko, Dwi; Voulgarakis, Apostolos

2017-10-01

We conducted a case study of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180 day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. This case study provides the starting point for longer-term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.

A montane Mediterranean climate supports year-round photosynthesis and high forest biomass.

PubMed

Kelly, Anne E; Goulden, Michael L

2016-04-01

The mid-elevation forest of California's Sierra Nevada poses a bioclimatic paradox. Mid-elevation trees experience a montane Mediterranean climate, with near-freezing winter days and rain-free summers. The asynchrony between warmth and water input suggests low primary production, limited by photosynthetic dormancy in winter cold, and again in summer and early autumn with drought, yet this forest is characterized by tall trees and high biomass. We used eddy covariance in a mid-elevation Sierra stand to understand how winter cold and summer drought limit canopy photosynthesis and production. The trees exhibited canopy photosynthesis year-round. Trees avoided winter dormancy, and daytime CO2uptake continued despite a deep snowpack and near-freezing temperatures. Photosynthesis on sunny days continued at half of maximum rates when air temperature was 0 °C. Likewise, the vegetation avoided summer drought dormancy, and high rates of daytime CO2uptake and transpiration continued despite a 5-month period with only negligible water input. We attribute this drought avoidance to deep rooting and availability of deep soil water. Year-round photosynthesis helps explain the large biomass observed in the Sierra Nevada, and implies adaptive strategies that may contribute to the resiliency or vulnerability of Sierran vegetation to climate change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less

Amygdaloid and non-amygdaloid fear both influence avoidance of risky foraging in hungry rats.

PubMed

Kim, Earnest; Kim, Eun Joo; Yeh, Regina; Shin, Minkyung; Bobman, Jake; Krasne, Franklin B; Kim, Jeansok J

2014-09-07

Considerable evidence seems to show that emotional and reflex reactions to feared situations are mediated by the amygdala. It might therefore seem plausible to expect that amygdala-coded fear should also influence decisions when animals make choices about instrumental actions. However, there is not good evidence of this. In particular, it appears, though the literature is conflicted, that once learning is complete, the amygdala may often not be involved in instrumental avoidance behaviours. It is therefore of interest that we have found in rats living for extended periods in a semi-naturalistic 'closed economy', where they were given random shocks in regions that had to be entered to obtain food, choices about feeding behaviour were in fact influenced by amygdala-coded fear, in spite of the null effect of amygdalar lesions on fear of dangerous location per se. We suggest that avoidance of highly motivated voluntary behaviour does depend in part on fear signals originating in the amygdala. Such signalling may be one role of well-known projections from amygdala to cortico-striate circuitry. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Schuster, Paul F.; Maracle, Karonhiakt'tie

2011-01-01

Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Critical issues in trace gas biogeochemistry and global change.

PubMed

Beerling, David J; Nicholas Hewitt, C; Pyle, John A; Raven, John A

2007-07-15

The atmospheric composition of trace gases and aerosols is determined by the emission of compounds from the marine and terrestrial biospheres, anthropogenic sources and their chemistry and deposition processes. Biogenic emissions depend upon physiological processes and climate, and the atmospheric chemistry is governed by climate and feedbacks involving greenhouse gases themselves. Understanding and predicting the biogeochemistry of trace gases in past, present and future climates therefore demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating across physiology, atmospheric chemistry, physics and meteorology. Here, we highlight critical issues raised by recent findings in all of these key areas to provide a framework for better understanding the past and possible future evolution of the atmosphere. Incorporating recent experimental and observational findings, especially the influence of CO2 on trace gas emissions from marine algae and terrestrial plants, into earth system models remains a major research priority. As we move towards this goal, archives of the concentration and isotopes of N2O and CH4 from polar ice cores extending back over 650,000 years will provide a valuable benchmark for evaluating such models. In the Pre-Quaternary, synthesis of theoretical modelling with geochemical and palaeontological evidence is also uncovering the roles played by trace gases in episodes of abrupt climatic warming and ozone depletion. Finally, observations and palaeorecords across a range of timescales allow assessment of the Earth's climate sensitivity, a metric influencing our ability to decide what constitutes 'dangerous' climate change.

Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation.

PubMed

Canadell, Josep G; Schulze, E Detlef

2014-11-19

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), have affected the global climate. Land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization. However, to satisfy the growing demands for food, wood products, energy, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation-all of which compete for increasingly limited quantities of biomass and land-the deployment of mitigation strategies must be driven by sustainable and integrated land management. If executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050.

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.

PubMed

Lewis, Owen T

2006-01-29

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

Contrasting effects of winter and summer climate on alpine timberline evolution in monsoon-dominated East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ying; Liu, Hongyan; Wang, Hongya; Piao, Shilong; Yin, Yi; Ciais, Philippe; Wu, Xiuchen; Luo, Yao; Zhang, Caina; Song, Yaqiong; Gao, Yishen; Qiu, Anan

2017-08-01

Alpine timberline is particularly sensitive to global climate change, with the danger of losing essential ecosystem services in high elevational regions. Its evolution is generally linked to annual average thermal regimes, and is regarded as an indicator of climate warming. However, the effect of uneven seasonal climate change stressed by the Hijioka et al. (2014) on alpine timberline dynamics in terms of both position migration and species composition remains unclear. Here, we documented approximately 6000 years of postglacial alpine timberline evolution on Mt. Tabai in the monsoon-dominated East Asian subtropical-temperate transition. We analyzed three high-resolution lacustrine sediment sequences located below, within, and above the current alpine timberline, an ecotone between the forest line and treeline, respectively. The timberline position appears to have varied coincidently with the temperature effect of cold East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), implying that enhanced EAWM shortened the duration of the growing season and reduced forest survival at the alpine timberline. Unlike position migration, however, timberline species composition depends on summer precipitation. We found that drought-tolerant herb and shrub species were much more sensitive to variations in the water-bearing East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) than mesophytic trees at the alpine timberline. Our results suggest that prediction of future timberline dynamics should consider uneven seasonal climate changes.

Policies for accelerating access to clean energy, improving health, advancing development, and mitigating climate change.

PubMed

Haines, Andy; Smith, Kirk R; Anderson, Dennis; Epstein, Paul R; McMichael, Anthony J; Roberts, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodcock, James; Woods, Jeremy

2007-10-06

The absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development. Furthermore, current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards. Impending climate change, mainly driven by energy use, now also threatens health. Policies to promote access to non-polluting and sustainable sources of energy have great potential both to improve public health and to mitigate (prevent) climate disruption. There are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. However, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets. The need for policies that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate while addressing the energy needs of disadvantaged people is a central challenge of the current era. A comprehensive programme for clean energy should optimise mitigation and, simultaneously, adaption to climate change while maximising co-benefits for health--eg, through improved air, water, and food quality. Intersectoral research and concerted action, both nationally and internationally, will be required.

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5

PubMed Central

Anderson, G.B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S.A.; Sanderson, B.

2015-01-01

Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. PMID:29520121

Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Avoiding the Perfect Storm

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

consequently, higher ocean water temperatures are increasing the occurrence of coral bleaching and coral reef die-offs.57 The IPCC concludes that...unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, in- sects, ocean acidification ), and other global...instance, the disintegration of saltwater fishing indus- tries due to ocean acidification could spark inter- and intrastate conflict as numerous

Educating for Hope in Troubled Times: Climate Change and the Transition to a Post-Carbon Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, David

2014-01-01

This book explores three global issues--climate change, peak oil and the limits to growth. It sets out the facts about the inevitable yet still largely unknown changes, and examines the feelings and attitudes the coming changes engender. It offers teachers ways to engage with vital but too often avoided issues, and to share success stories and…

Climate-related trends in sapwood biophysical properties in two conifers: avoidance of hydraulic dysfunction through coordinated adjustments in xylem efficiency, safety and capacitance

Treesearch

David M. Barnard; Frederick C. Meinzer; Barbara Lachenbruch; Katherine A. McCulloh; Daniel M. Johnson; David R. Woodruff

2011-01-01

In the Pacific north-west, the Cascade Mountain Range blocks much of the precipitation and maritime influence of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in distinct climates east and west of the mountains. The current study aimed to investigate relationships between water storage and transport properties in populations of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii)...

Tropical sprue

MedlinePlus

... than avoiding living in or traveling to tropical climates, there is no known prevention for tropical sprue. ... Clinical Professor of Medicine, The George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC. Also reviewed by David ...

Opportunities and limitations for intersection collision intervention-A study of real world 'left turn across path' accidents.

PubMed

Sander, Ulrich

2017-02-01

Turning across the path of oncoming vehicle accidents are frequent and dangerous. To date not many car manufacturers have introduced Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) systems addressing this type of conflict situation, but it is foreseeable that these scenarios will be part of the Euro NCAP 2020 rating. Nine out of ten collisions are caused by the driver of the turning vehicle. An AEB system evaluating the ego and conflict vehicle driver's possibilities to avoid a pending crash by either braking or steering was specified for application in various constellations of vehicle collisions. In virtual simulation, AEB system parameters were varied, covering parameters that are relevant for driver comfort such as longitudinal and lateral acceleration (to define avoidance possibilities), expected steering maneuvers to avoid conflict, and intervention response characteristics (brake delay and ramp up) to assess the safety benefit. The reference simulation showed a potential of the AEB system in the turning vehicle to avoid approximately half of the collisions. An AEB system of the straight going vehicle was less effective. The effectiveness of the turning vehicle's AEB system increases if spatial limitations for the collision-avoidance steering maneuver are known. Such information could be provided by sensors detecting free space in or around the road environment or geographical information shared via vehicle to cloud communication. AEB interventions rarely result in collision avoidance for turning vehicles with speeds above 40km/h or for straight going vehicles with speeds above 60km/h. State of the art field-of-views of forward looking sensing systems designed for AEB rear-end interventions are capable of addressing turning across path situations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.