Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

Temperature Rise and Allowable Carbon Emissions for the RCP2.6 Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Huntingford, C.; Kawamiya, M.

2012-12-01

Climate research centres are running Earth System Models (ESMs) forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While these GCM studies increase process based knowledge, the number of simulations is small, making it difficult to interpret the resulting distribution of responses in a probabilistic way. We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the range of future temperature change and allowable emissions for a low mitigation CO2 concentration pathway RCP 2.6. Uncertainty is initially estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then further constrained by extensive use of contemporary measurements. Despite this, the resulting range of temperatures for RCP 2.6 remains large. The predicted peak global temperature increase, reached around 2100, from pre-industrial is 0.8 - 1.9 K and 1.0 - 1.9 K (95% range) for the unconstrained and the constrained cases, respectively. Allowable emissions at the time of peak emission period is projected as 6.0 - 10.8 PgC yr-1 and 7.4 - 10.2 PgC yr-1 for each case. After year 2100, negative net emissions are required with a probability of some 84 %, and related uncertainty in cumulative emissions is large.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

PubMed

Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

2012-01-01

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.

2010-12-01

Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

Evaluating EDGARv4.tox2 speciated mercury emissions ex-post scenarios and their impacts on modelled global and regional wet deposition patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muntean, Marilena; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Song, Shaojie; Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E.; Zhong, Hui; Zhao, Yu; Olivier, Jos G. J.; Guizzardi, Diego; Crippa, Monica; Schaaf, Edwin; Dentener, Frank

2018-07-01

Speciated mercury gridded emissions inventories together with chemical transport models and concentration measurements are essential when investigating both the effectiveness of mitigation measures and the mercury cycle in the environment. Since different mercury species have contrasting behaviour in the atmosphere, their proportion in anthropogenic emissions could determine the spatial impacts. In this study, the time series from 1970 to 2012 of the EDGARv4.tox2 global mercury emissions inventory are described; the total global mercury emission in 2010 is 1772 tonnes. Global grid-maps with geospatial distribution of mercury emissions at a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution are provided for each year. Compared to the previous tox1 version, tox2 provides updates for more recent years and improved emissions in particular for agricultural waste burning, power generation and artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sectors. We have also developed three retrospective emissions scenarios based on different hypotheses related to the proportion of mercury species in the total mercury emissions for each activity sector; improvements in emissions speciation are seen when using information primarily from field measurements. We evaluated them using the GEOS-Chem 3-D mercury model in order to explore the influence of speciation shifts, to reactive mercury forms in particular, on regional wet deposition patterns. The reference scenario S1 (EDGARv4.tox2_S1) uses speciation factors from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); scenario S2 ("EPA_power") uses factors from EPA's Information Collection Request (ICR); and scenario S3 ("Asia_filedM") factors from recent scientific publications. In the reference scenario, the sum of reactive mercury emissions (Hg-P and Hg2+) accounted for 25.3% of the total global emissions; the regions/countries that have shares of reactive mercury emissions higher than 6% in total global reactive mercury are China+ (30.9%), India+ (12.5%) and

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

Possible detection of an emission feature near 584 A in the direction of G191-B2B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, James; Bowyer, Stuart; Jelinsky, Patrick

1990-01-01

A possible spectral emission feature is reported in the direction of the nearby hot white dwarf G191-B2B at 581.5 + or - 6 A with a significance of 3.8 sigma. This emission has been identified as He I 584.3 A. The emission cannot be due to local geocoronal emission or interplanetary backscatter of solar He I 584 A emission because the feature is not detected in a nearby sky exposure. Possible sources for this emission are examined, including the photosphere of G191-B2B, the comparison star G191-B2A, and a possible nebulosity near or around G191-B2B. The parameters required to explain the emission are derived for each case. All of these explanations require unexpected physical conditions; hence we believe this result must receive confirming verification despite the statistical likelihood of the detection.

Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory

This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees.more » Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.« less

Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

Treesearch

A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

2011-01-01

Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

2017-03-01

Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

DOE PAGES

Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

2015-02-24

We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

2015-12-01

Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

EPA Science Inventory

The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

1998-01-01

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

2017-04-01

In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

PubMed

Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

2017-12-31

China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of H-alpha emission in the hot white dwarf G191-B2B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Neill; Wegner, Gary

1988-12-01

High-resolution spectra of G191-B2B, the hottest known DA white dwarf were obtained which reveal emission in the core of the H-alpha line. The observations show little variation in the line profile over a period of four days, ruling out line-doubling in a close binary as an explanation. The observed emission cannot be due to a nearby red dwarf companion, while the absence of any spatially extended emission argues against either a planetary nebula remnant or local ionization of the interstellar medium. The determination of the systemic velocity, using the companion red dwarf G191-B2A, is 5 + or - 2 km/s and shows that both the H-alpha emission and the high-excitation species observed in the ultraviolet are redshifted by 19 + or - 3 km/s, suggesting a photospheric origin. The low redshift implies a mass of 0.45 solar mass for this hot white dwarf, although the uncertainties in the effective temperature and parallax permit masses in the range 0.29 to 0.60 solar mass.

The physical and chemical structure of Sagittarius B2. II. Continuum millimeter emission of Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N) with ALMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Monge, Á.; Schilke, P.; Schmiedeke, A.; Ginsburg, A.; Cesaroni, R.; Lis, D. C.; Qin, S.-L.; Müller, H. S. P.; Bergin, E.; Comito, C.; Möller, Th.

2017-07-01

Context. The two hot molecular cores Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N), which are located at the center of the giant molecular cloud complex Sagittarius B2, have been the targets of numerous spectral line surveys, revealing a rich and complex chemistry. Aims: We seek to characterize the physical and chemical structure of the two high-mass star-forming sites Sgr B2(M) and Sgr B2(N) using high-angular resolution observations at millimeter wavelengths, reaching spatial scales of about 4000 au. Methods: We used the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) to perform an unbiased spectral line survey of both regions in the ALMA band 6 with a frequency coverage from 211 GHz to 275 GHz. The achieved angular resolution is 0.̋4, which probes spatial scales of about 4000 au, I.e., able to resolve different cores and fragments. In order to determine the continuum emission in these line-rich sources, we used a new statistical method, STATCONT, which has been applied successfully to this and other ALMA datasets and to synthetic observations. Results: We detect 27 continuum sources in Sgr B2(M) and 20 sources in Sgr B2(N). We study the continuum emission variation across the ALMA band 6 (I.e., spectral index) and compare the ALMA 1.3 mm continuum emission with previous SMA 345 GHz and VLA 40 GHz observations to study the nature of the sources detected. The brightest sources are dominated by (partially optically thick) dust emission, while there is an important degree of contamination from ionized gas free-free emission in weaker sources. While the total mass in Sgr B2(M) is distributed in many fragments, most of the mass in Sgr B2(N) arises from a single object, with filamentary-like structures converging toward the center. There seems to be a lack of low-mass dense cores in both regions. We determine H2 volume densities for the cores of about 107-109 cm-3 (or 105-107 M⊙ pc-3), I.e., one to two orders of magnitude higher than the stellar densities of super star clusters. We

Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

PubMed

Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-12-16

There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

Modeling the impact of crop rotation with legume on nitrous oxide emissions from rain-fed agricultural systems in Australia under alternative future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Ma, Yuchun; Schwenke, Graeme; Sun, Liying; Liu, De Li; Wang, Bin; Yang, Bo

2018-07-15

Limited information exists on potential impacts of climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions by including N 2 -fixing legumes in crop rotations from rain-fed cropping systems. Data from two 3-yr crop rotations in northern NSW, Australia, viz. chickpea-wheat-barley (CpWB) and canola-wheat-barley (CaWB), were used to gain an insight on the role of legumes in mitigation of N 2 O emissions. High-frequency N 2 O fluxes measured with an automated system of static chambers were utilized to test the applicability of Denitrification and Decomposition model. The DNDC model was run using the on-site observed weather, soil and farming management conditions as well as the representative concentration pathways adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment Report. The DNDC model captured the cumulative N 2 O emissions with variations falling within the deviation ranges of observations (0.88±0.31kgNha -1 rotation -1 for CpWB, 1.44±0.02kgNha -1 rotation -1 for CaWB). The DNDC model can be used to predict between modeled and measured N 2 O flux values for CpWB (n=390, RSR=0.45) and CaWB (n=390, RSR=0.51). Long-term (80-yr) simulations were conducted with RCP 4.5 representing a global greenhouse gas stabilization scenario, as well RCP 8.5 representing a very high greenhouse gas emission scenario based on RCP scenarios. Compared with the baseline scenarios for CpWB and CaWB, the long-term simulation results under RCP scenarios showed that, (1) N 2 O emissions would increase by 35-44% for CpWB and 72-76% for CaWB under two climate scenarios; (2) grain yields would increase by 9% and 18% under RCP 4.5, and 2% and 14% under RCP 8.5 for CpWB and CaWB, respectively; and (3) yield-scaled N 2 O-N emission would increase by 24-42% for CpWB and 46-54% for CaWB under climate scenarios, respectively. Our results suggest that 25% of the yield-scaled N 2 O-N emission would be saved by switching to a legume rotation under climate change conditions. Crown

Bleaching and mortality of a photosymbiotic bioeroding sponge under future carbon dioxide emission scenarios.

PubMed

Fang, James K H; Schönberg, Christine H L; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Achlatis, Michelle; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

2018-05-01

The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis is photosymbiotic with dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium and is pervasive on the Great Barrier Reef. We investigated how C. orientalis responded to past and future ocean conditions in a simulated community setting. The experiment lasted over an Austral summer under four carbon dioxide emission scenarios: a pre-industrial scenario (PI), a present-day scenario (PD; control), and two future scenarios of combined ocean acidification and ocean warming, i.e., B1 (intermediate) and A1FI (extreme). The four scenarios also simulated natural variability of carbon dioxide partial pressure and temperature in seawater. Responses of C. orientalis generally remained similar between the PI and PD treatments. C. orientalis under B1 displayed a dramatic increase in lateral tissue extension, but bleached and displayed reduced rates of respiration and photosynthesis. Some B1 sponge replicates died by the end of the experiment. Under A1FI, strong bleaching and subsequent mortality of all C. orientalis replicates occurred at an early stage of the experiment. Mortality arrested bioerosion by C. orientalis under B1 and A1FI. Overall, the absolute amount of calcium carbonate eroded by C. orientalis under B1 or A1FI was similar to that under PI or PD at the end of the experiment. Although bioerosion rates were raised by short-term experimental acidification in previous studies, our findings from the photosymbiotic C. orientalis imply that the effects of bioerosion on reef carbonate budgets may only be temporary if the bioeroders cannot survive long-term in the future oceans.

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2011-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

PubMed Central

MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

2012-01-01

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

Emissions from residential combustion considering end-uses and spatial constraints: Part II, emission reduction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.

2016-01-01

Cooking, heating, and other activities in the residential sector are major sources of indoor and outdoor air pollution, especially when solid fuels are used to provide energy. Because of their deleterious effects on the atmosphere and human health, multinational strategies to reduce emissions have been proposed. This study examines the effects of some possible policies, considering realistic factors that constrain mitigation: end-uses, spatial constraints involving proximity to forest or electricity, existing technology, and assumptions about user behavior. Reduction scenarios are applied to a year-2010, spatially distributed baseline of emissions of particulate matter, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrogen oxides, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. Scenarios explored are: (1) cleanest current stove, where we assume that existing technology in each land type is applied to burn existing fuels; (2) stove standards, where we assume that stoves are designed to meet performance standards; and (3) clean fuels, where users adopt the cleanest fuels plausible in each land type. We assume that people living in forest access areas continue to use wood regardless of available fuels, so the clean-fuels scenario leads to a reduction in emissions of 18-25%, depending on the pollutant, across the study region. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used; emission reductions range from 25 to 82%, depending on the pollutant. If stove performance standards can be met, particulate matter emissions are reduced by 62% for the loosest standards and 95% for the tightest standards, and carbon monoxide is reduced by 40% and 62% for the loosest and tightest standards. Reductions in specific regions and countries depend on the existing fuel mixture and the population division among land types, and are explored for Latin America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-12-01

For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

1994-01-01

Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

PubMed

Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

2011-01-13

The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

2016-09-01

Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

PubMed Central

Takeshita, Takayuki

2011-01-01

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them. PMID:21845172

Impact of passenger car NOX emissions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for 8 European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

2017-12-01

Residents of large European cities are exposed to NO2 concentrations that often exceed the established air quality standards. Diesel cars have been identified as a major contributor to this situation; yet, it remains unclear to which levels the NOX emissions of diesel cars have to decrease to effectively mitigate urban NO2 pollution across Europe. Here, we take a continental perspective and model urban NO2 pollution in a generic street canyon of 8 major European cities for various NOX emission scenarios. We find that a reduction in the on-road NOX emissions of diesel cars to the Euro 6 level can in general decrease the regional and urban NO2 concentrations and thereby the frequency of exceedances of the NO2 air quality standard. High NO2 fractions in the NOX emissions of diesel cars tend to increase the urban NO2 concentrations only in proximity of intense road traffic typically found on artery roads in large cities like Paris and London. In cities with a low share of diesel cars in the vehicle fleet such as Athens or a high contribution from the NO2 background to the urban NO2 pollution such as Krakow, measures addressing heavy-duty vehicles, and the manufacturing, energy, and mining industry are necessary to decrease urban air pollution. We regard our model results as robust albeit subject to uncertainty resulting from the application of a generic street layout. With small modifications in the input parameters, our model could be used to assess the impact of NOX emissions from road transport on NO2 air pollution in any European city.

Impact of passenger car NOx emissions and NO2 fractions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for the city of Antwerp, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

2016-02-01

The annual NO2 concentrations in many European cities exceed the established air quality standard. This situation is mainly caused by Diesel cars whose NOx emissions are higher on the road than during type approval in the laboratory. Moreover, the fraction of NO2 in the NOx emissions of modern diesel cars appears to have increased as compared to previous models. In this paper, we assess 1) to which level the distance-specific NOx emissions of Diesel cars should be reduced to meet established air quality standards and 2) if it would be useful to introduce a complementary NO2 emissions limit. We develop a NO2 pollution model that accounts in an analysis of 9 emission scenarios for changes in both, the urban background NO2 concentrations and the local NO2 emissions at street level. We apply this model to the city of Antwerp, Belgium. The results suggest that a reduction in NOx emissions decreases the regional and urban NO2 background concentration; high NO2 fractions increase the ambient NO2 concentrations only in close spatial proximity to the emission source. In a busy access road to the city centre, the average NO2 concentration can be reduced by 23% if Diesel cars emitted 0.35 g NOx/km instead of the current 0.62 g NOx/km. Reductions of 45% are possible if the NOX emissions of Diesel cars decreased to the level of gasoline cars (0.03 g NOx/km). Our findings suggest that the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure can solve the problem of NO2 exceedances in cities if it reduced the on-road NOx emissions of diesel cars to the permissible limit of 0.08 g/km. The implementation of a complementary NO2 emissions limit may then become superfluous. If Diesel cars continue to exceed by several factors their NOx emissions limit on the road, a shift of the vehicle fleet to gasoline cars may be necessary to solve persisting air quality problems.

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marty, Christoph; Schlögl, Sebastian; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

2017-02-01

This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).

Biohydrogen production from microalgal biomass: energy requirement, CO2 emissions and scale-up scenarios.

PubMed

Ferreira, Ana F; Ortigueira, Joana; Alves, Luís; Gouveia, Luísa; Moura, Patrícia; Silva, Carla

2013-09-01

This paper presents a life cycle inventory of biohydrogen production by Clostridium butyricum through the fermentation of the whole Scenedesmus obliquus biomass. The main purpose of this work was to determine the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen. This was accomplished through the fermentation of the microalgal biomass cultivated in an outdoor raceway pond and the preparation of the inoculum and culture media. The scale-up scenarios are discussed aiming for a potential application to a fuel cell hybrid taxi fleet. The H2 yield obtained was 7.3 g H2/kg of S. obliquus dried biomass. The results show that the production of biohydrogen required 71-100 MJ/MJ(H2) and emitted about 5-6 kg CO2/MJ(H2). Other studies and production technologies were taken into account to discuss an eventual process scale-up. Increased production rates of microalgal biomass and biohydrogen are necessary for bioH2 to become competitive with conventional production pathways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

2017-04-01

This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

Projection of global terrestrial nitrous oxide emission using future scenarios of climate and land-use management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatomi, M. I.; Ito, A.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O), with a centennial mean residence time in the atmosphere, is one of the most remarkable greenhouse gases. Because natural and anthropogenic emissions make comparable contributions, we need to take account of different sources of N2O such as natural soils and fertilizer in croplands to predict the future emission change and to discuss its mitigation. In this study, we conduct a series of simulations of future change in nitrous oxide emission from terrestrial ecosystems using a process-based model, VISIT. We assume a couple of scenarios of future climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, fertilizer input, and land-use change. In particular, we develop a new scenario of cropland fertilizer input on the basis of changes in crop productivity and fertilizer production cost. Expansion of biofuel crop production is considered but in a simplified manner (e.g., a specific fraction of pasture conversion to biofuel cultivation). Regional and temporal aspects of N2O emission are investigated and compared with previous studies. Finally, we make discussions, on the basis of simulated results, about the high-end of N2O emission, mitigation options, and impact of fertilizer input.

Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holloway, T.

2010-12-01

Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

2018-03-01

The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

2016-12-01

Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

2015-12-01

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Etsushi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2014-09-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socioeconomic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above preindustrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high-fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full postprocess combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high-fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required; however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise, a conflict of land use with food production is inevitable.

Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study

PubMed Central

Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas RV; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

2017-01-01

Objective To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. Design For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1–5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Setting Working age population for England. Participants Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Primary outcomes measured Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Results Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO2e/year for the diet scenarios. Conclusions Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. PMID:28399514

Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study.

PubMed

Tainio, Marko; Monsivais, Pablo; Jones, Nicholas Rv; Brand, Christian; Woodcock, James

2017-02-22

To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1-5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. Working age population for England. Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO 2 e/year for the diet scenarios. Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

2017-12-01

The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

PubMed

Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

2016-12-15

Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

2015-10-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

2017-04-01

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers: Major drivers and implications for fluvial greenhouse emissions under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Campeau, Audrey; Del Giorgio, Paul A

2014-04-01

It is now widely accepted that boreal rivers and streams are regionally significant sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), yet their role as methane (CH4) emitters, as well as the sensitivity of these greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to climate change, are still largely undefined. In this study, we explore the large-scale patterns of fluvial CO2 and CH4 partial pressure (pCO2 , pCH4) and gas exchange (k) relative to a set of key, climate-sensitive river variables across 46 streams and rivers in two distinct boreal landscapes of Northern Québec. We use the resulting models to determine the direction and magnitude of C-gas emissions from these boreal fluvial networks under scenarios of climate change. River pCO2 and pCH4 were positively correlated, although the latter was two orders of magnitude more variable. We provide evidence that in-stream metabolism strongly influences the dynamics of surface water pCO2 and pCH4 , but whereas pCO2 is not influenced by temperature in the surveyed streams and rivers, pCH4 appears to be strongly temperature-dependent. The major predictors of ambient gas concentrations and exchange were water temperature, velocity, and DOC, and the resulting models indicate that total GHG emissions (C-CO2 equivalent) from the entire network may increase between by 13 to 68% under plausible scenarios of climate change over the next 50 years. These predicted increases in fluvial GHG emissions are mostly driven by a steep increase in the contribution of CH4 (from 36 to over 50% of total CO2 -equivalents). The current role of boreal fluvial networks as major landscape sources of C is thus likely to expand, mainly driven by large increases in fluvial CH4 emissions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streets, D. G.; Bond, T. C.; Lee, T.; Jang, C.

2004-12-01

This paper presents the first model-based forecasts of future emissions of the primary carbonaceous aerosols, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The forecasts build on a recent 1996 inventory of emissions that contains detailed fuel, technology, sector, and world-region specifications. The forecasts are driven by four IPCC scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, and B2, out to 2030 and 2050, incorporating not only changing patterns of fuel use but also technology development. Emissions from both energy generation and open biomass burning are included. We project that global BC emissions will decline from 8.0 Tg in 1996 to 5.3-7.3 Tg by 2030 and to 4.3-6.1 Tg by 2050, across the range of scenarios. We project that OC emissions will decline from 34 Tg in 1996 to 24-30 Tg by 2030 and to 21-28 Tg by 2050. The introduction of advanced technology with lower emission rates, as well as a shift away from the use of traditional solid fuels in the residential sector, more than offsets the increased combustion of fossil fuels worldwide. Environmental pressures and a diminishing demand for new agricultural land lead to a slow decline in the amount of open biomass burning. Although emissions of BC and OC are generally expected to decline around the world, some regions, particularly South America, northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, show increasing emissions in several scenarios. Particularly difficult to control are BC emissions from the transport sector, which increase under most scenarios. We expect that the BC/OC emission ratio for energy sources will rise from 0.5 to as much as 0.8, signifying a shift toward net warming of the climate system due to carbonaceous aerosols. When biomass burning is included, however, the BC/OC emission ratios are for the most part invariant across scenarios at about 0.2.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

2008-09-01

This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

PubMed

Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

2013-08-01

The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of

[Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

PubMed

Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

2013-05-01

It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

Global production, use, and emission volumes of short-chain chlorinated paraffins - A minimum scenario.

PubMed

Glüge, Juliane; Wang, Zhanyun; Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2016-12-15

Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) show high persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity (PBT properties). Consequently, restrictions on production and use have been enforced in several countries/regions. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants recognized the PBT properties and long-range transport potential of SCCPs in 2015 and is now evaluating a possible global phase-out or restrictions. In this context, it is relevant to know which countries are producing/using SCCPs and in which amounts, and which applications contribute most to their environmental emissions. To provide a first comprehensive overview, we review and integrate all publicly available data on the global production and use of both chlorinated paraffins (CPs) as a whole and specifically SCCPs. Considerable amount of data on production/use of CPs and SCCPs are missing. Based on the available data and reported emission factors, we estimate the past and current worldwide SCCP emissions from individual applications. Using the available data as a minimum scenario, we conclude: (i) SCCP production and use is increasing, with the current worldwide production volume being 165,000t/year at least, whereas the global production of total CPs exceeds 1milliont/year. (ii) The worldwide release of SCCPs from their production and use to air, surface water, and soil between 1935 and 2012 has been in the range of 1690-41,400t, 1660-105,000t, and 9460-81,000t, respectively. (iii) The SCCP manufacture and use in PVC, the use in metal working applications and sealants/adhesives, and the use in plastics and rubber contribute most to the emissions to air, surface water, and soil. Thus, the decrease in the environmental emissions of SCCPs requires reduction of SCCP use in (almost) all applications. (iv) Emissions due to the disposal of waste SCCPs cannot be accurately estimated, because relevant information is missing. Instead, we conduct a scenario analysis to provide some insights into

Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashiyama, Kazumi; Murase, Kohta

Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M {sub ej} ≳ a few M {sub ⊙}, a neutron star with an age of t {submore » age} ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P{sub i} ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B {sub dip} ≲ a few × 10{sup 13} G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M {sub ej} ∼ 0.1 M {sub ⊙}, a younger neutron star with t {sub age} ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.« less

Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

PubMed Central

Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

PubMed

Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

2016-09-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

Energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in Iran, 2025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirzaei, Maryam

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2025 will reach 985more » million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO{sub 2} emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO{sub 2} emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.« less

B Stars with and without emission lines, parts 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Underhill, A. (Editor); Doazan, V. (Editor)

1982-01-01

The spectra for B stars for which emission lines occur not on the main sequence, but only among the supergiants, and those B stars for which the presence of emission in H ahlpa is considered to be a significant factor in delineating atmospheric structure are examined. The development of models that are compatible with all known facts about a star and with the laws of physics is also discussed.

Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

2015-12-01

Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Temperature - Emissivity Separation Assessment in a Sub-Urban Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moscadelli, M.; Diani, M.; Corsini, G.

2017-10-01

In this paper, a methodology that aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different TES strategies is presented. The methodology takes into account the specific material of interest in the monitored scenario, sensor characteristics, and errors in the atmospheric compensation step. The methodology is proposed in order to predict and analyse algorithms performances during the planning of a remote sensing mission, aimed to discover specific materials of interest in the monitored scenario. As case study, the proposed methodology is applied to a real airborne data set of a suburban scenario. In order to perform the TES problem, three state-of-the-art algorithms, and a recently proposed one, are investigated: Temperature-Emissivity Separation '98 (TES-98) algorithm, Stepwise Refining TES (SRTES) algorithm, Linear piecewise TES (LTES) algorithm, and Optimized Smoothing TES (OSTES) algorithm. At the end, the accuracy obtained with real data, and the ones predicted by means of the proposed methodology are compared and discussed.

Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broecker, W. S.

2015-12-01

There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

PubMed

Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

2015-07-03

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Emission analysis of RE3+ (RE = Sm, Dy):B2O3-TeO2-Li2O-AlF3 glasses.

PubMed

Raju, C Nageswara; Sailaja, S; Kumari, S Pavan; Dhoble, S J; Kumar, V Ramesh; Ramanaiah, M V; Reddy, B Sudhakar

2013-01-01

This article reports on the optical properties of 0.5% mol of Sm(3+), Dy(3+) ion-doped B2O3-TeO2-Li2O-AlF3 (LiAlFBT) glasses. The glass samples were characterized by optical absorption and emission spectra. Judd-Ofelt theory was applied to analyze the optical absorption spectra and calculate the intensity parameters and radiative properties of the emission transitions. The emission spectra of Sm(3+) and Dy(3+):LiAlFBT glasses showed a bright reddish-orange emission at 598 nm ((4)G5/2 → (6)H7/2) and an intense yellow emission at 574 nm ((4)F9/2 → (6)H13/2), respectively. Full width at half maximum (FWHM), stimulated emission cross section, gain bandwidth and optical gain values were also calculated to extend the applications of the Sm(3+) and Dy(3+):LiAlFBT glasses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

PubMed

Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

2017-12-01

Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

On the impact of CO{sub 2} emission-trading on power generation emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chappin, E.J.L.; Dijkema, G.P.J.

2009-03-15

In Europe one of the main policy instruments to meet the Kyoto reduction targets is CO{sub 2} emission-trading (CET), which was implemented as of January 2005. In this system, companies active in specific sectors must be in the possession of CO{sub 2} emission rights to an amount equal to their CO{sub 2} emission. In Europe, electricity generation accounts for one-third of CO{sub 2} emissions. Since the power generation sector has been liberalized, reregulated and privatized in the last decade, around Europe autonomous companies determine the sectors' CO{sub 2} emission. Short-term they adjust their operation, long-term they decide on (dis) investmentmore » in power generation facilities and technology selection. An agent-based model is presented to elucidate the effect of CET on the decisions of power companies in an oligopolistic market. Simulations over an extensive scenario-space show that there CET does have an impact. A long-term portfolio shift towards less-CO{sub 2} intensive power generation is observed. However, the effect of CET is relatively small and materializes late. The absolute emissions from power generation rise under most scenarios. This corresponds to the dominant character of current capacity expansion planned in the Netherlands (50%) and in Germany (68%), where companies have announced many new coal based power plants. Coal is the most CO{sub 2} intensive option available and it seems surprising that even after the introduction of CET these capacity expansion plans indicate a preference for coal. Apparently in power generation the economic effect of CO{sub 2} emission-trading is not sufficient to outweigh the economic incentives to choose for coal.« less

A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

2016-12-01

A comprehensive regional assessment of emission sources is a major hindrance for a complete understanding of the air quality and for designing appropriate mitigation solutions in Nepal, a landlocked country in foothills of the Himalaya. This study attempts, for the first time, to develop a fine resolution (1km × 1km) present day emission inventory of Nepal with a higher tier approach using our understanding of the currently used technologies, energy consumption used in various energy sectors and its resultant emissions. We estimate present-day emissions of aerosols (BC, OC and PM2.5), trace gases (SO2, CO, NOX and VOC) and greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) from non-open burning sources (residential, industry, transport, commercial) and open-burning sources (agriculture and municipal solid waste burning) for the base year 2013. We used methodologies published in literatures, and both primary and secondary data to estimate energy production and consumption in each sector and its sub-sector and associated emissions. Local practices and activity rates are explicitly accounted for energy consumption and dispersed often under-documented emission sources like brick manufacturing, diesel generator sets, mining, stone crushing, solid waste burning and diesel use in farms are considered. Apart from pyrogenic source of CH4 emissions, methanogenic and enteric fermentation sources are also accounted. Region-specific and newly measured country-specific emission factors are used for emission estimates. Activity based proxies are used for spatial and temporal distribution of emissions. Preliminary results suggest that 80% of national energy consumption is in residential sector followed by industry (8%) and transport (7%). More than 90% of the residential energy is supplied by biofuel which needs immediate attention to reduce emissions. Further, the emissions would be compared with other contemporary studies, regional and global datasets and used in the model simulations to

Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, T.

2015-12-01

A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.

2014-01-01

This paper presents ensemble simulations with the global climate model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). These simulations were forced by historical reconstruction of external forcings for 850-2005 AD and by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios till year 2300. Different ensemble members were constructed by varying the governing parameters of the IAP RAS CM module to simulate natural fires. These members are constrained by the GFED-3.1 observational data set and further subjected to Bayesian averaging. This approach allows to select only changes in fire characteristics which are robust within the constrained ensemble. In our simulations, the present-day (1998-2011 AD) global area burnt due to natural fires is (2.1 ± 0.4) × 106 km2 yr-1 (ensemble means and intra-ensemble standard deviations are presented), and the respective CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are (1.4 ± 0.2) PgC yr-1. The latter value is in agreement with the corresponding observational estimates. Regionally, the model underestimates CO2 emissions in the tropics; in the extra-tropics, it underestimates these emissions in north-east Eurasia and overestimates them in Europe. In the 21st century, the ensemble mean global burnt area is increased by 13% (28%, 36%, 51%) under scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). The corresponding global emissions increase is 14% (29%, 37%, 42%). In the 22nd-23rd centuries, under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 the ensemble mean global burnt area and respective CO2 emissions slightly decrease, both by 5% relative to their values in year 2100. Under other RCP scenarios, these variables continue to increase. Under scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5) the ensemble mean burnt area in year 2300 is higher by 83% (44%, 15%) than its value in year 2100, and the ensemble mean CO2 emissions are correspondingly higher by 31% (19%, 9%). All changes of natural fire characteristics in

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

2017-04-01

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the Had

Resolving the Optical Emission Lines of Lyα Blob "B1" at z = 2.38: Another Hidden Quasar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overzier, R. A.; Nesvadba, N. P. H.; Dijkstra, M.; Hatch, N. A.; Lehnert, M. D.; Villar-Martín, M.; Wilman, R. J.; Zirm, A. W.

2013-07-01

We have used the SINFONI near-infrared integral field unit on the Very Large Telescope to resolve the optical emission line structure of one of the brightest (L Lyα ≈ 1044 erg s-1) and nearest (z ≈ 2.38) of all Lyα blobs (LABs). The target, known in the literature as object "B1", lies at a redshift where the main optical emission lines are accessible in the observed near-infrared. We detect luminous [O III] λλ4959, 5007 and Hα emission with a spatial extent of at least 32 × 40 kpc (4'' × 5''). The dominant optical emission line component shows relatively broad lines (600-800 km s-1, FWHM) and line ratios consistent with active galactic nucleus (AGN) photoionization. The new evidence for AGN photoionization, combined with previously detected C IV and luminous, warm infrared emission, suggest that B1 is the site of a hidden quasar. This is confirmed by the fact that [O II] is relatively weak compared with [O III] (extinction-corrected [O III]/[O II] of about 3.8), which is indicative of a high, Seyfert-like ionization parameter. From the extinction-corrected [O III] luminosity we infer a bolometric AGN luminosity of ~3 × 1046 erg s-1, and further conclude that the obscured AGN may be Compton-thick given existing X-ray limits. The large line widths observed are consistent with clouds moving within the narrow-line region of a luminous QSO. The AGN scenario is capable of producing sufficient ionizing photons to power the Lyα, even in the presence of dust. By performing a census of similar objects in the literature, we find that virtually all luminous LABs harbor obscured quasars. Based on simple duty-cycle arguments, we conclude that AGNs are the main drivers of the Lyα in LABs rather than the gravitational heating and subsequent cooling suggested by cold stream models. We also conclude that the empirical relation between LABs and overdense environments at high redshift must be due to a more fundamental correlation between AGNs (or massive galaxies) and

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

2014-12-01

Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Zhining; Williams, Allen; Huang, Ho-Chun; Caughey, Michael; Liang, Xin-Zhong

2007-04-01

The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2-15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (``dirty'') scenario, and decrease by 4-12% under the B1 (relatively ``clean'') scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.

Changes in atmospheric sulfur burdens and concentrations and resulting radiative forcings under IPCC SRES emission scenarios for 1990-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M.; Boucher, O.; Hauglustaine, D.

2005-03-01

Simulations of the global sulfur cycle under the IPCC SRES scenarios have been performed. Sulfur dioxide and sulfate burdens, as well as the direct and first indirect radiative forcing (RF) by sulfate aerosols only, are presented for the period 1990 to 2100. By 2100, global sulfur emission rates decline everywhere in all scenarios. At that time, the anthropogenic sulfate burden ranges from 0.34 to 1.03 times the 1990 value of 0.47 Tg S. Direct and indirect global and annually mean RFs relative to the year 1990 are near 0 or positive (range of -0.07 to 0.28 Wm-2 and 0.01 to 0.38 Wm-2 for the direct and indirect effects, respectively). For reference these forcings amount respectively to -0.42 and -0.79 Wm-2 in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions (around 1750). Sulfur aerosols will therefore induce a smaller cooling effect in 2100 than in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions. For the period 1990 to 2100, the forcing efficiencies (computed relatively to 1990) are fairly constant for the direct effect (around -160 W (g sulfate)-1). The forcing efficiencies for the indirect effect are around -200 and -100 W (g sulfate)-1 for negative and positive burden differences, respectively. This is due to a shift in regional patterns of emissions and a saturation in the indirect effect. The simulated annually averaged SO2 concentrations for A1B scenario in 2020 are close to air quality objectives for public health in some parts of Africa and exceed these objectives in some parts of China and Korea. Moreover, sulfate deposition rates are estimated to increase by 200% from the present level in East and Southeast Asia. This shows that Asia may experience in the future sulfur-related environmental and human health problems as important as Europe and the United States did in the 1970s.

HCFC-142b emissions in China: An inventory for 2000 to 2050 basing on bottom-up and top-down methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jiarui; Li, Li; Su, Shenshen; Hu, Jianxin; Wu, Jing; Wu, Yusheng; Fang, Xuekun

2014-05-01

. Emission might experience a continuous increase from 14.9 kt/yr to 97.2 kt/yr under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, while a 90% reduction would be obtained by fulfilling the Montreal Protocol, namely an accumulative mitigation of 1578 kt from 2013 to 2050, equal to 103 kt ODP, and 3504 Tg CO2 emissions. Therefore, China will contribute tremendously to the worldwide ozone protection and global warming mitigation by successfully phasing out HCFC-142b according to the Montreal Protocol schedule.

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

Expert Elicitations of 2100 Emission of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Emily; Bosetti, Valentina; Budescu, David; Keller, Klaus; van Vuuren, Detlef

2017-04-01

Emission scenarios such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used intensively for climate research (e.g. climate change projections) and policy analysis. While the range of these scenarios provides an indication of uncertainty, these scenarios are typically not associated with probability values. Some studies (e.g. Vuuren et al, 2007; Gillingham et al., 2015) took a different approach associating baseline emission pathways (conditionally) with probability distributions. This paper summarizes three studies where climate change experts were asked to conduct pair-wise comparisons of possible ranges of 2100 greenhouse gas emissions and rate the relative likelihood of the ranges. The elicitation was performed under two sets of assumptions: 1) a situation where no climate policies are introduced beyond the ones already in place (baseline scenario), and 2) a situation in which countries have ratified the voluntary policies in line with the long term target embedded in the 2015 Paris Agreement. These indirect relative judgments were used to construct subjective cumulative distribution functions. We show that by using a ratio scaling method that invokes relative likelihoods of scenarios, a subjective probability distribution can be derived for each expert that expresses their beliefs in the projected greenhouse gas emissions range in 2100. This method is shown to elicit stable estimates that require minimal adjustment and is relatively invariant to the partition of the domain of interest. Experts also rated the method as being easy and intuitive to use. We also report results of a study that allowed participants to choose their own ranges of greenhouse gas emissions to remove potential anchoring bias. We discuss the implications of the use of this method for facilitating comparison and communication of beliefs among diverse users of climate science research.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

DOE PAGES

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Cheng, Haiwen; Wang, Chien

2016-04-06

Fuel usage is an important driver of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In Asia, it is possible that aerosol emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly as a result of the widespread adoption of cleaner technologies or a shift toward noncoal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of two aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) control, which projects a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and a scenario with enhanced anthropogenic aerosolmore » emissions from Asia. A coupled atmosphere–ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), is used. Three sets of initial conditions are used to produce a three-member ensemble for each scenario. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to exert a large cooling effect across the Northern Hemisphere, partially offsetting greenhouse gas–induced warming. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world. Over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced, an effect associated with a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, driven by the aerosol-induced cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. Over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed, likely via a weakening of the West African westerly jet. These results indicate that fuel usage in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.« less

Six Years of Monitoring of the Sgr B2 Molecular Cloud with INTEGRAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrier, R.; Bélanger, G.; Ponti, G.; Trap, G.; Goldwurm, A.; Decourchelle, A.

2009-05-01

Several molecular clouds around the Galactic Centre (GC) emit strong neutral iron fluorescence line at 6.4 keV, as well as hard X-ray emission up to 100 keV. The origin of this emission has long been a matter of controversy: irradiation by low energy cosmic ray electrons or X-rays emitted by a nearby flaring source in the central region. A recent evidence for time variability in the iron line intensity that has been detected in the Sgr B2 cloud favors the reflexion scenario. We present here the data obtained after 6 years of INTEGRAL monitoring of the GC. In particular, we show a lightcurve of Sgr B2 that reveals a decrease in the hard X-ray flux over the last years and discuss its implications. We finally discuss perspectives with Simbol-X.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

Broadening emission band of Ba2B2O5: Dy3+ by codoping Ce3+ as sensitizer and its application to white LEDs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shuchao; Wang, Zhijun; Li, Panlai; Li, Ting; Bai, Qiongyu; Yang, Zhiping

2018-06-01

In order to achieve broad-band white emitting phosphor, Ce3+/Dy3+ codoped Ba2B2O5 were synthesized by a solid-state method, and the luminescence property and energy transfer were discussed in detail. Dy3+ doped Ba2B2O5 shows white emission, and the two narrow peaks which are assigned to the 4F9/2 → 6H15/2 and 4F9/2 → 6H13/2 transitions of Dy3+ ions, respectively. When codoped Ce3+ as sensitizer, the broad-band white emission can be obtained by the energy transfer from Ce3+ to Dy3+ ions in Ba2B2O5, and the mechanism is the dipole-dipole interaction. And the CIE coordinates can be tuned from (0.2501, 0.2323) to (0.3422, 0.3799) by increase Dy3+ content. The emission peak blue-shift of Ce3+ ions in Ba2B2O5:Ce3+, Dy3+ was observed from the thermal spectra, and the mechanism was analyzed. A white light emitting diodes (LEDs) can be fabricated Ba2B2O5:Ce3+, Dy3+ with 380 nm chip, and the results show that the phosphor may be a potential application in this field.

ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

A probabilistic approach to emissions from transportation sector in the coming decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2010-12-01

Future emission estimates are necessary for understanding climate change, designing national and international strategies for air quality control and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so. Most current emission projection models are deterministic; in other words, there is only single answer for each scenario. As a result, uncertainties have not been included in the estimation of climate forcing or other environmental effects, but it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. We explore uncertainties of emission projections from transportation sector in the coming decades by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. These projections are based on a technology driven model: the Speciated Pollutants Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend, which responds to socioeconomic conditions in different economic and mitigation scenarios. The model contains detail about technology stock, including consumption growth rates, retirement rates, timing of emission standards, deterioration rates and transition rates from normal vehicles to vehicles with extremely high emission factors (termed “superemitters”). However, understanding of these parameters, as well as relationships with socioeconomic conditions, is uncertain. We project emissions from transportation sectors under four different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). Due to the later implementation of advanced emission standards, Africa has the highest annual growth rate (1.2-3.1%) from 2010 to 2050. Superemitters begin producing more than 50% of global emissions around year 2020. We estimate uncertainties from the relationships between technological change and socioeconomic conditions and examine their impact on future emissions. Sensitivities to parameters governing retirement rates are highest, causing changes in global emissions from-26% to +55% on average from 2010 to 2050. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to examine

Thermal characteristics of multi-wavelength emission during a B8.3 flare occurred on July 04, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awasthi, Arun Kumar; Sylwester, Barbara; Sylwester, Janusz; Jain, Rajmal

2015-08-01

We explore the temporal evolution of flare plasma parameters including temperature (T) - differential emission measure (DEM) relationship by analyzing high spectral and temporal cadence X-ray emission in 1.2-20 keV energy band, recorded by SphinX (Polish) and Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS; Indian) instruments, during a B8.3 flare which occurred on July 04, 2009. SphinX records X-ray emission in 1.2-15 keV energy band with the temporal and spectral cadence as good as 6µs and 0.4 keV, respectively. On the other hand, SOXS provides X-ray observations in 4-25 keV energy band with the temporal and spectral resolution of 3s and 0.7 keV, respectively. In addition, we integrate co-temporal EUV line emission in 171, 194 and 284 angstrom obtained from STEREO mission in order to explore low-temperature response to the flare emission. In order to fit observed evolution of multi-wavelength emission during the flare, we incorporate multi-Gaussian and well-established Withbroe - Sylwester maximum likelihood DEM inversion algorithms. Thermal energetics are also estimated using geometrically corrected flaring loop structure obtained through EUV images of the active region from STEREO twin satellites. In addition, we also study the trigger and energy release scenario of this low-intensity class flare in terms of magnetic field as well as multi-wavelength emission.

Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francey, Roger J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; van der Schoot, Marcel; Law, Rachel M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Langenfelds, Ray L.; Paul Steele, L.; Allison, Colin E.; Stavert, Ann R.; Andres, Robert J.; Rödenbeck, Christian

2013-05-01

International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO2 coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO2 growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000-2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (~ 9PgC) of 1994-2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.

Analyzing and forecasting CO2 emission reduction in China's steel industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chengkang; Wang, Dan; Zhao, Baohua; Chen, Shan; Qin, Wei

2015-03-01

Recent measures of carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry of China have indicated a high rate of total CO2 emissions from the industry, even compared to the rest of the world. So, CO2 emission reduction in China's steel industry was analyzed, coupling the whole process and scenarios analysis. First, assuming that all available advanced technologies are almost adopted, this study puts forward some key potential-sectors and explores an optimal technical route for reducing CO2 emissions from the Chinese steel industry based on whole process analysis. The results show that in the stages of coking, sintering, and iron making, greater potential for reducing emissions would be fulfilled by taking some technological measures. If only would above well-developed technologies be fulfill, the CO2 emissions from 5 industry production stages would be reduced substantially, and CO2 emissions per ton of steel could be decreased to 1.24 (ton/ton-steel) by 2020. At the same time, the scenarios analysis indicates that if mature carbon-reducing technologies are adopted, and if the difference between steel output growth rate and the GDP growth rate could be controlled below 3%, CO2 emissions from China's steel industry would approach the goal of reducing CO2 emissions per GDP unit by 40%-45% of the 2005 level by 2020. This indicates that the focus of carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China lies in policy adjustments in order to enhance technological application, and lies in reasonably controlling the pace of growth of GDP and steel output.

The emission spectroscopy of the B2Σ- -X2 Π system of CD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szajna, W.; Zachwieja, M.; Hakalla, R.

2016-06-01

The visible spectrum of CD has been investigated at high resolution between 24,500 and 27,500 cm-1 using a high accuracy dispersive optical spectroscopy technique. The CD molecules were produced and excited in a stainless steel hollow-cathode lamp with two anodes and filled with a mixture of He buffer gas and CD4. The emission from the discharge was observed with a plane grating spectrograph and recorded by a photomultiplier tube. The 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 bands of the B2Σ- -X2 Π transition have been registered and measured, while 2-0 and 2-1 absorption bands (Herzberg and Johns, 1969) have been reanalyzed. The current data were elaborated with help of recent X2 Π ground state parameters reported by Zachwieja et al. (2012) from investigation of the A2 Δ -X2 Π transition. This way, the improved spectroscopic constants for the B2Σ- state of CD have been provided as follows: νe = 26,050.787 (11) cm-1, ωe = 1653.019 (25) cm-1, ωexe = 123.899 (12) cm-1, Be = 7.08296 (32) cm-1, αe = 0.30741 (84) cm-1, and γe = - 0.10727 (42) cm-1.

Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

2016-01-01

During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Modelling global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere from crown, ground, and peat fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Chernokulsky, Alexander V.

2015-04-01

The scheme for natural fires implemented in the climate model (CM) developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP RAS) is extended by a module accounting for ground and peat fires. With the IAP RAS CM, the simulations are performed for 1700-2300 in accordance with the CMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5) protocol. The modelled present-day burnt area, BA, and the corresponding CO2 emissions into the atmosphere E agree with the GFED-3.1 estimates at most regions. In the 21st century, under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios, the global BA increases by 10-41% depending on scenario, and E increases by 11-39%. Under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6, both BA and E slightly decrease in the 22nd-23rd centuries. For scenarios RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, they continue to increase in these two centuries. All these changes are mostly due to changes in natural fires activity in the boreal regions. Ground and peat fires contribute significantly to the total emissions of CO2 from natural fires (20-25% at the global scale depending on scenario and calendar year). Peat fires markedly intensify interannual variability of regional CO2 emissions from natural fires.

High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2009-04-01

In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

Atmospheric dayglow diagnostics involving the O2(b-X) Atmospheric band emission: Global Oxygen and Temperature (GOAT) mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slanger, T. G.; Pejaković, D. A.; Kostko, O.; Matsiev, D.; Kalogerakis, K. S.

2017-03-01

The terrestrial dayglow displays prominent emission features from the 0-0 and 1-1 bands of the O2 Atmospheric band system in the 760-780 nm region. We present an analysis of observations in this wavelength region recorded by the Space Shuttle during the Arizona Airglow Experiment. A major conclusion is that the dominant product of O(1D) + O2 energy transfer is O2(b, v = 1), a result that corroborates our previous laboratory studies. Moreover, critical to the interpretation of dayglow is the possible interference by N2 and N2+ bands in the 760-780 nm region, where the single-most important component is the N2 1PG 3-1 band that overlaps with the O2(b-X) 0-0 band. When present, this background must be accounted for to reveal the O2(b-X) 0-0 and 1-1 bands for altitudes at which the O2 and N2/N2+ emissions coincide. Finally, we exploit the very different collisional behavior of the two lowest O2(b) vibrational levels to outline a remote sensing technique that provides information on Atmospheric composition and temperature from space-based observations of the 0-0 and 1-1 O2 atmospheric bands.

Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; De Marco, Alessandra; Paoletti, Elena

2017-10-01

The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4-5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2-10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

Fourier transform emission spectra and deperturbation analysis of the A2Π - X2Σ+ and B2Σ+ - X2Σ+ electronic transitions of ZnH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, Mahdi; Shayesteh, Alireza

2017-10-01

A discharge-furnace emission source was used to generate the A2Π → X2Σ+ and B2Σ+ → X2Σ+ spectra of ZnH radical. High resolution emission spectra were recorded with a Fourier transform spectrometer, and several bands have been assigned for the 64ZnH major isotopologue. The data span the v″ = 0-6 levels of the X2Σ+ ground state, the v‧ = 0-3 levels of the A2Π state, and the v‧ = 0-2 levels of the B2Σ+ state, extending to high rotational quantum numbers near and above the dissociation asymptote of the ground state. Large local perturbations were observed in the A2Π and B2Σ+ electronic states, and a deperturbation analysis was carried out using a single Hamiltonian matrix that includes 2Π and 2Σ+ matrix elements, as well as off-diagonal elements coupling vibrational levels of the two electronic states. Band constants and Dunham coefficients were obtained for the A2Π and B2Σ+ excited states by least-squares-fitting of all the experimental data. The equilibrium vibrational constants ωe and ωexe have been determined to be 1907.528(4) and 38.674(2) cm-1, respectively, for the A2Π state, and 1021.135(94) and 17.725(80) cm-1, for the B2Σ+ state, and the equilibrium Zn-H distances (re) are 1.511662(2) Å and 2.26805(7) Å for the A2Π and B2Σ+ states, respectively. The RKR potential curves were constructed for the A2Π and B2Σ+ states, and vibrational radial overlap integrals were computed. The off-diagonal matrix elements coupling the electronic wavefunctions of the A2Π and B2Σ+ states, i.e., a+ and b, were determined to be 228 ± 3 cm-1 and 0.73 ± 0.01, respectively, for the ZnH molecule.

Air Pollutant Emissions Projections for the Cement and Steel Industry in China and the Impact of Emissions Control Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hasanbeigi, Ali; Khanna, Nina; Price, Lynn

China’s cement and steel industry accounts for approximately half of the world’s total cement and steel production. These two industries are two of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO 2)-emitting industries and two of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, the cement industry is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of its industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of its total national PM emissions. The Chinese steel industry contributed to approximately 20 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions and 27 percent of PM emissionsmore » for all key manufacturing industries in China in 2013. In this study, we analyzed and projected the total PM and SO2 emissions from the Chinese cement and steel industry from 2010–2050 under three different scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Advanced scenario, and an Advanced EOP (end-of-pipe) scenario. We used bottom-up emissions control technologies data and assumptions to project the emissions. In addition, we conducted an economic analysis to estimate the cost for PM emissions reductions in the Chinese cement industry using EOP control technologies, energy efficiency measures, and product change measures. The results of the emissions projection showed that there is not a substantial difference in PM emissions between the Base Case and Advanced scenarios, for both the cement and steel industries. This is mainly because PM emissions in the cement industry caused mainly by production process and not the fuel use. Since our forecast for the cement production in the Base Case and Advanced scenarios are not too different from each other, this results in only a slight difference in PM emissions forecast for these two scenarios. Also, we assumed a similar share and penetration rate of control technologies from 2010 up to 2050 for these two scenarios for the cement and steel industry. However, the Advanced EOP scenario showed

Broad N2H+ Emission toward the Protostellar Shock L1157-B1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codella, C.; Viti, S.; Ceccarelli, C.; Lefloch, B.; Benedettini, M.; Busquet, G.; Caselli, P.; Fontani, F.; Gómez-Ruiz, A.; Podio, L.; Vasta, M.

2013-10-01

We present the first detection of N2H+ toward a low-mass protostellar outflow, namely, the L1157-B1 shock, at ~0.1 pc from the protostellar cocoon. The detection was obtained with the IRAM 30 m antenna. We observed emission at 93 GHz due to the J = 1-0 hyperfine lines. Analysis of this emission coupled with HIFI CHESS multiline CO observations leads to the conclusion that the observed N2H+(1-0) line originated from the dense (>=105 cm-3) gas associated with the large (20''-25'') cavities opened by the protostellar wind. We find an N2H+ column density of a few 1012 cm-2 corresponding to an abundance of (2-8) × 10-9. The N2H+ abundance can be matched by a model of quiescent gas evolved for more than 104 yr, i.e., for more than the shock kinematical age (sime2000 yr). Modeling of C-shocks confirms that the abundance of N2H+ is not increased by the passage of the shock. In summary, N2H+ is a fossil record of the pre-shock gas, formed when the density of the gas was around 104 cm-3, and then further compressed and accelerated by the shock.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

Early UV emission from disc-originated matter (DOM) in Type Ia supernovae in the double-degenerate scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levanon, Naveh; Soker, Noam

2017-09-01

We show that the blue and UV excess emission in the first few days of some Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be accounted in the double-degenerate (DD) scenario by the collision of the SN ejecta with circumstellar matter that was blown by the accretion disc formed during the merger process of the two white dwarfs (WDs). We assume that in cases of excess early light, the disc blows the circumstellar matter, that we term disc-originated matter (DOM), hours to days before explosion. To perform our analysis, we first provide a model-based definition for early excess light, replacing the definition of excess light relative to a power-law fit to the rising luminosity. We then examine the light curves of the SNe Ia iPTF14atg and SN 2012cg, and find that the collision of the ejecta with a DOM in the frame of the DD scenario can account for their early excess emission. Thus, early excess light does not necessarily imply the presence of a stellar companion in the frame of the single-degenerate scenario. Our findings further increase the variety of phenomena that the DD scenario can account for, and emphasize the need to consider all different SN Ia scenarios when interpreting observations.

The Effect of Emissions Trading And Carbon Sequestration on The Cost Of CO2 Emissions Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahasenan, Natesan; Scott, Michael J.; Smith, Steven J.

2002-08-05

The deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies is greatly affected by the marginal cost of controlling carbon emissions (also the value of carbon, when emissions permits are traded). Emissions limits that are more stringent in the near term imply higher near-term carbon values and therefore encourage the local development and deployment of CC&S technologies. In addition, trade in emissions obligations lowers the cost of meeting any regional or global emissions limit and so affects the rate of penetration of CC&S technologies. We examine the effects of the availability of sequestration opportunities and emissions trading (either within select regionsmore » or globally) on the cost of emissions mitigation and compliance with different emissions reduction targets for the IPCC SRES scenarios. For each base scenario and emissions target, we examine the issues outlined above and present quantitative estimates for the impacts of trade and the availability of sequestration opportunities in meeting emissions limitation obligations.« less

Use of Radon for Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models: Sensitivity to Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Mohan L.; Douglass, Anne R.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

This paper presents comparative analyses of atmospheric radon (Rn) distributions simulated using different emission scenarios and the observations. Results indicate that the model generally reproduces observed distributions of Rn but there are some biases in the model related to differences in large-scale and convective transport. Simulations presented here use an off-line three-dimensional chemical transport model driven by assimilated winds and two scenarios of Rn fluxes (atom/cm s) from ice-free land surfaces: (A) globally uniform flux of 1.0, and (B) uniform flux of 1.0 between 60 deg. S and 30 deg. N followed by a sharp linear decrease to 0.2 at 70 deg. N. We considered an additional scenario (C) where Rn emissions for case A were uniformly reduced by 28%. Results show that case A overpredicts observed Rn distributions in both hemispheres. Simulated northern hemispheric (NH) Rn distributions from cases B and C compare better with the observations, but are not discernible from each other. In the southern hemisphere, surface Rn distributions from case C compare better with the observations. We performed a synoptic scale source-receptor analysis for surface Rn to locate regions with ratios B/A and B/C less than 0.5. Considering an uncertainty in regional Rn emissions of a factor of two, our analysis indicates that additional measurements of surface Rn particularly during April-October and north of 50 deg. N over the Pacific as well as Atlantic regions would make it possible to determine if the proposed latitude gradient in Rn emissions is superior to a uniform flux scenario.

Comparison of the far-infrared and carbon monoxide emission in Heiles' Cloud 2 and B18

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snell, Ronald L.; Schloerb, F. Peter; Heyer, Mark H.

1989-01-01

A comparison is made of the far-IR emission detected by IRAS at 60 and 100 microns and the emission from C(-13)O in B18 and Heiles' Cloud 2. The results show that both these clouds have extended emission at the studied wavelengths and that this emission is correlated with the integrated intensity of (C-13)O emission. The dust temperature and optical depth, the gas column density, the mass of gas and dust, and the far-IR luminosity are derived and presented. The analysis shows that the dust optical depth is much better correlated with the gas column density than with the far-IR intensity. The dust temperature is found to be anticorrelated with the gas column density, suggesting that these clouds are externally heated by the interstellar radiation field. The far-IR luminosity-to-mass ratios for the clouds are substantially less than the average for the inner Galaxy.

NEAR-INFRARED THERMAL EMISSION FROM THE HOT JUPITER TrES-2b: GROUND-BASED DETECTION OF THE SECONDARY ECLIPSE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Croll, Bryce; Jayawardhana, Ray; Albert, Loic

2010-07-10

We present near-infrared Ks-band photometry bracketing the secondary eclipse of the hot Jupiter TrES-2b using the Wide-field Infrared Camera on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. We detect its thermal emission with an eclipse depth of 0.062{sup +0.013}{sub -0.011}% (5{sigma}). Our best-fit secondary eclipse is consistent with a circular orbit (a 3{sigma} upper limit on the eccentricity, e, and argument or periastron, {omega}, of |e cos {omega}| < 0.0090), in agreement with mid-infrared detections of the secondary eclipse of this planet. A secondary eclipse of this depth corresponds to a dayside Ks-band brightness temperature of T{sub B} = 1636{sup +79}{sub -88} K. Ourmore » thermal emission measurement, when combined with the thermal emission measurements using Spitzer/IRAC from O'Donovan and collaborators, suggests that this planet exhibits relatively efficient dayside to nightside redistribution of heat and a near isothermal dayside atmospheric temperature structure, whose spectrum is well approximated by a blackbody. It is unclear if the atmosphere of TrES-2b requires a temperature inversion; if it does it is likely due to chemical species other than TiO/VO as the atmosphere of TrES-2b is too cool to allow TiO/VO to remain in gaseous form. Our secondary eclipse has the smallest depth of any detected from the ground, at around 2 {mu}m, to date.« less

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of

Analysis of CO2, CO and HC emission reduction in automobiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balan, K. N.; Valarmathi, T. N.; Reddy, Mannem Soma Harish; Aravinda Reddy, Gireddy; Sai Srinivas, Jammalamadaka K. M. K.; Vasan

2017-05-01

In the present scenario, the emission from automobiles is becoming a serious problem to the environment. Automobiles, thermal power stations and Industries majorly constitute to the emission of CO2, CO and HC. Though the CO2 available in the atmosphere will be captured by oceans, grasslands; they are not enough to control CO2 present in the atmosphere completely. Also advances in engine and vehicle technology continuously to reduce the emission from engine exhaust are not sufficient to reduce the HC and CO emission. This work concentrates on design, fabrication and analysis to reduce CO2, CO and HC emission from exhaust of automobiles by using molecular sieve 5A of 1.5mm. In this paper, the details of the fabrication, results and discussion about the process are discussed.

Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

1998-01-01

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD-WRF Model.

PubMed

Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

2017-01-01

The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth's surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD-WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD–WRF Model

PubMed Central

Dey, Sharadia; Gupta, Srimanta; Sibanda, Precious; Chakraborty, Arun

2017-01-01

The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2), the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth’s surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)–Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD–WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario. PMID:28141866

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

PubMed

Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Hare, William; Raper, Sarah C B; Frieler, Katja; Knutti, Reto; Frame, David J; Allen, Myles R

2009-04-30

More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO(2) emissions over 2000-50 to 1,000 Gt CO(2) yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 degrees C-and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO(2) yields a 50% probability-given a representative estimate of the distribution of climate system properties. As known 2000-06 CO(2) emissions were approximately 234 Gt CO(2), less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communiqués envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12-45% probability of exceeding 2 degrees C-assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 2 degrees C rises to 53-87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.

Evolution of the US energy system and related emissions under varying social and technological development paradigms: Plausible scenarios for use in robust decision making.

PubMed

Brown, Kristen E; Hottle, Troy Alan; Bandyopadhyay, Rubenka; Babaee, Samaneh; Dodder, Rebecca Susanne; Kaplan, Pervin Ozge; Lenox, Carol; Loughlin, Dan

2018-06-21

The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply Scenario Planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. EPA MARKAL model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.

2014-06-01

This paper presents ensemble simulations with the global climate model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). These simulations are forced by historical reconstructions of concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O), sulfate aerosols (both in the troposphere and stratosphere), extent of crops and pastures, and total solar irradiance for AD 850-2005 (hereafter all years are taken as being AD) and by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the same forcing agents until the year 2300. Our model implements GlobFIRM (Global FIRe Model) as a scheme for calculating characteristics of natural fires. Comparing to the original GlobFIRM model, in our implementation, the scheme is extended by a module accounting for CO2 release from soil during fires. The novel approach of our paper is to simulate natural fires in an ensemble fashion. Different ensemble members in the present paper are constructed by varying the values of parameters of the natural fires module. These members are constrained by the GFED-3.1 data set for the burnt area and CO2 release from fires and further subjected to Bayesian averaging. Our simulations are the first coupled model assessment of future changes in gross characteristics of natural fires. In our model, the present-day (1998-2011) global area burnt due to natural fires is (2.1 ± 0.4) × 106 km2 yr-1 (ensemble mean and intra-ensemble standard deviation are presented), and the respective CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are (1.4 ± 0.2) Pg C yr-1. The latter value is in agreement with the corresponding GFED estimates. The area burnt by natural fires is generally larger than the GFED estimates except in boreal Eurasia, where it is realistic, and in Australia, where it is smaller than these estimates. Regionally, the modelled CO2 emissions are larger (smaller) than the GFED estimates in Europe (in the tropics and north-eastern Eurasia). From

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

2018-01-01

Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3 % (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2014-06-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-09-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-12-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to

Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO{sub 2} emissions in India through 2040.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arora, S.; Vyas, A.; Johnson, L.

2011-02-22

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two-wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206-309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle-growth and three fuel-economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle-growth and fuel-economy scenarios, together with themore » change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404-719 million metric tons (8.5-15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO{sub 2} emissions are projected to be 1.2-2.2 billion metric tons.« less

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

2015-01-01

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieno, M.; Heal, M. R.; Williams, M. L.; Carnell, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Stedman, J. R.; Reis, S.

2016-01-01

The reduction of ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a key objective for air pollution control policies in the UK and elsewhere. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 has been identified as a major contributor to adverse human health effects in epidemiological studies and underpins ambient PM2.5 legislation. As a range of emission sources and atmospheric chemistry transport processes contribute to PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric chemistry transport models are an essential tool to assess emissions control effectiveness. The EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to investigate the impact of reductions in UK anthropogenic emissions of primary PM2.5, NH3, NOx, SOx or non-methane VOC on surface concentrations of PM2.5 in the UK for a recent year (2010) and for a future current legislation emission (CLE) scenario (2030). In general, the sensitivity to UK mitigation is rather small. A 30 % reduction in UK emissions of any one of the above components yields (for the 2010 simulation) a maximum reduction in PM2.5 in any given location of ˜ 0.6 µg m-3 (equivalent to ˜ 6 % of the modelled PM2.5). On average across the UK, the sensitivity of PM2.5 concentrations to a 30 % reduction in UK emissions of individual contributing components, for both the 2010 and 2030 CLE baselines, increases in the order NMVOC, NOx, SOx, NH3 and primary PM2.5; however there are strong spatial differences in the PM2.5 sensitivities across the UK. Consequently, the sensitivity of PM2.5 to individual component emissions reductions varies between area and population weighting. Reductions in NH3 have the greatest effect on area-weighted PM2.5. A full UK population weighting places greater emphasis on reductions of primary PM2.5 emissions, which is simulated to be the most effective single-component control on PM2.5 for the 2030 scenario. An important conclusion is that weighting corresponding to the average exposure indicator metric (using data from the 45