A back-fitting algorithm to improve real-time flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaojing; Liu, Pan; Cheng, Lei; Liu, Zhangjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-07-01

Real-time flood forecasting is important for decision-making with regards to flood control and disaster reduction. The conventional approach involves a postprocessor calibration strategy that first calibrates the hydrological model and then estimates errors. This procedure can simulate streamflow consistent with observations, but obtained parameters are not optimal. Joint calibration strategies address this issue by refining hydrological model parameters jointly with the autoregressive (AR) model. In this study, five alternative schemes are used to forecast floods. Scheme I uses only the hydrological model, while scheme II includes an AR model for error correction. In scheme III, differencing is used to remove non-stationarity in the error series. A joint inference strategy employed in scheme IV calibrates the hydrological and AR models simultaneously. The back-fitting algorithm, a basic approach for training an additive model, is adopted in scheme V to alternately recalibrate hydrological and AR model parameters. The performance of the five schemes is compared with a case study of 15 recorded flood events from China's Baiyunshan reservoir basin. Our results show that (1) schemes IV and V outperform scheme III during the calibration and validation periods and (2) scheme V is inferior to scheme IV in the calibration period, but provides better results in the validation period. Joint calibration strategies can therefore improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. Additionally, the back-fitting recalibration strategy produces weaker overcorrection and a more robust performance compared with the joint inference strategy.

78 FR 19148 - Shielding and Radiation Protection Review Effort and Licensing Conditions for Dry Storage...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-29

... learned and to address emergent issues not covered in SFST Standard Review Plans (SRPs). In this way, the... a formal SRP revision. The NRC has developed draft SFST-ISG-26A, Revision 0 to (1) enhance the... implementation of such guidance in the context of applications does not result in backfitting or non-compliance...

Comparative U.S.-Israeli Homeland Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

perception is the economic benefit that the United States receives from such a porous border in the form of inexpensive guest labor. Taking this argument...housing Israeli families have been back-fitted with bulletproof glass in windows that face Palestinian neighborhoods. On a much larger scale, Israel has...without requiring a metal cover; dealing with ceilings ; and creating and enforcing building codes for commercial structures so they can withstand

Use of digital photography for power plant retrofits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamba, J.J.

1995-09-01

One of the latest advancements in electronic tools for reducing engineering and drafting effort is the use of digital photography (DP) for retrofit and betterment projects at fossil and nuclear power plants. Sargent and Lundy (S and L) has effectively used digital photography for condition assessments, minor backfit repairs, thermo-lag fire wrap assessments and repairs, and other applications. Digital photography offers several benefits on these types of projects including eliminating the need for official repair drawings and providing station maintenance with a true 3-D visualization of the repair.

Gradient Plasticity Model and its Implementation into MARMOT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, Erin I.; Li, Dongsheng; Zbib, Hussein M.

2013-08-01

The influence of strain gradient on deformation behavior of nuclear structural materials, such as boby centered cubic (bcc) iron alloys has been investigated. We have developed and implemented a dislocation based strain gradient crystal plasticity material model. A mesoscale crystal plasticity model for inelastic deformation of metallic material, bcc steel, has been developed and implemented numerically. Continuum Dislocation Dynamics (CDD) with a novel constitutive law based on dislocation density evolution mechanisms was developed to investigate the deformation behaviors of single crystals, as well as polycrystalline materials by coupling CDD and crystal plasticity (CP). The dislocation density evolution law in thismore » model is mechanism-based, with parameters measured from experiments or simulated with lower-length scale models, not an empirical law with parameters back-fitted from the flow curves.« less

Safeguards and retrievability from waste forms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danker, W.

1996-05-01

This report describes issues discussed at a session from the PLutonium Stabilization and Immobilization Workshop related to safeguards and retrievability from waste forms. Throughout the discussion, the group probed the goals of disposition efforts, particularly an understanding of the {open_quotes}spent fuel standard{close_quotes}, since the disposition material form derives from these goals. The group felt strongly that not only the disposition goals but safeguards to meet these goals could affect the material form. Accordingly, the Department was encouraged to explore and apply safeguards as early in the implementation process as possible. It was emphasized that this was particularly true for anymore » planned use of existing facilities. It is much easier to build safeguards approaches into the development of new facilities, than to backfit existing facilities. Accordingly, special safeguards challenges are likely to be encountered, given the cost and schedule advantages offered by use of existing facilities.« less

Automatic reconstruction of surge deposit thicknesses. Applications to some Italian volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armienti, P.; Pareschi, M. T.

1987-04-01

The energy cone concept has been adopted to describe some kinds of surge deposits. The energy cone parameters (height and slope) are evaluated through a regression technique which utilizes deposit thicknesses and the correspondent quotes and heights of the energy cone. The regression also allows to evaluate a coefficient of proportionality linking the deposit thickness to the distance between topographic surface and energy line for a given eruption. Moreover, if an accurate topography is available (in this case a reconstruction of a digitalized topography of the Phlegrean Fields and of the Vesuvius), the energy cone parameters, obtained by the backfitted technique, can be used to evaluate the order of magnitude of the deposit volumes. The hazard map for a surge localized at the Solfatara (Phlegraean Fields, Naples) has been computed. The values of the energy cone parameters and the volume have been assumed to be equal to those estimated with the regression technique applied to a past surge eruption in the same area.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kornfeldt, H.; Bjoerk, K.O.; Ekstroem, P.

The protection against dynamic effects in connection with potential pipe breaks has been implemented in different ways in the development of BWR reactor designs. First-generation plant designs reflect code requirements in effect at that time which means that no piping restraint systems were designed and built into those plants. Modern designs have, in contrast, implemented full protection against damage in connection with postulated pipe breaks, as required in current codes and regulations. Moderns standards and current regulatory demands can be met for the older plants by backfitting pipe whip restraint hardware. This could lead to several practical difficulties as thesemore » installations were not anticipated in the original plant design and layout. Meeting the new demands by analysis would in this situation have great advantages. Application of leak-before-break criteria gives an alternative opportunity of meeting modem standards in reactor safety design. Analysis takes into account data specific to BWR primary system operation, actual pipe material properties, piping loads and leak detection capability. Special attention must be given to ensure that the data used reflects actual plant conditions.« less

Workshop on environmental qualification of electric equipment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lofaro, R.; Gunther, W.; Villaran, M.

1994-05-01

Questions concerning the Environmental Qualification (EQ) of electrical equipment used in commercial nuclear power plants have recently become the subject of significant interest to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Initial questions centered on whether compliance with the EQ requirements for older plants were adequate to support plant operation beyond 40 years. After subsequent investigation, the NRC Staff concluded that questions related to the differences in EQ requirements between older and newer plants constitute a potential generic issue which should be evaluated for backfit, independent of license renewal activities. EQ testing of electric cables was performed by Sandia National Laboratoriesmore » (SNL) under contract to the NRC in support of license renewal activities. Results showed that some of the environmentally qualified cables either failed or exhibited marginal insulation resistance after a simulated plant life of 20 years during accident simulation. This indicated that the EQ process for some electric cables may be non-conservative. These results raised questions regarding the EQ process including the bases for conclusions about the qualified life of components based upon artificial aging prior to testing.« less

Probabilistic assessment of dynamic system performance. Part 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belhadj, Mohamed

1993-01-01

Accurate prediction of dynamic system failure behavior can be important for the reliability and risk analyses of nuclear power plants, as well as for their backfitting to satisfy given constraints on overall system reliability, or optimization of system performance. Global analysis of dynamic systems through investigating the variations in the structure of the attractors of the system and the domains of attraction of these attractors as a function of the system parameters is also important for nuclear technology in order to understand the fault-tolerance as well as the safety margins of the system under consideration and to insure a safemore » operation of nuclear reactors. Such a global analysis would be particularly relevant to future reactors with inherent or passive safety features that are expected to rely on natural phenomena rather than active components to achieve and maintain safe shutdown. Conventionally, failure and global analysis of dynamic systems necessitate the utilization of different methodologies which have computational limitations on the system size that can be handled. Using a Chapman-Kolmogorov interpretation of system dynamics, a theoretical basis is developed that unifies these methodologies as special cases and which can be used for a comprehensive safety and reliability analysis of dynamic systems.« less

A hybrid-domain approach for modeling climate data time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Qiuzi H.; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Wong, Augustine

2011-09-01

In order to model climate data time series that often contain periodic variations, trends, and sudden changes in mean (mean shifts, mostly artificial), this study proposes a hybrid-domain (HD) algorithm, which incorporates a time domain test and a newly developed frequency domain test through an iterative procedure that is analogue to the well known backfitting algorithm. A two-phase competition procedure is developed to address the confounding issue between modeling periodic variations and mean shifts. A variety of distinctive features of climate data time series, including trends, periodic variations, mean shifts, and a dependent noise structure, can be modeled in tandem using the HD algorithm. This is particularly important for homogenization of climate data from a low density observing network in which reference series are not available to help preserve climatic trends and long-term periodic variations, preventing them from being mistaken as artificial shifts. The HD algorithm is also powerful in estimating trend and periodicity in a homogeneous data time series (i.e., in the absence of any mean shift). The performance of the HD algorithm (in terms of false alarm rate and hit rate in detecting shifts/cycles, and estimation accuracy) is assessed via a simulation study. Its power is further illustrated through its application to a few climate data time series.

Extracting harmonic signal from a chaotic background with local linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenlong; Su, Liyun

2017-02-01

In this paper, the problems of blind detection and estimation of harmonic signal in strong chaotic background are analyzed, and new methods by using local linear (LL) model are put forward. The LL model has been exhaustively researched and successfully applied for fitting and forecasting chaotic signal in many chaotic fields. We enlarge the modeling capacity substantially. Firstly, we can predict the short-term chaotic signal and obtain the fitting error based on the LL model. Then we detect the frequencies from the fitting error by periodogram, a property on the fitting error is proposed which has not been addressed before, and this property ensures that the detected frequencies are similar to that of harmonic signal. Secondly, we establish a two-layer LL model to estimate the determinate harmonic signal in strong chaotic background. To estimate this simply and effectively, we develop an efficient backfitting algorithm to select and optimize the parameters that are hard to be exhaustively searched for. In the method, based on sensitivity to initial value of chaos motion, the minimum fitting error criterion is used as the objective function to get the estimation of the parameters of the two-layer LL model. Simulation shows that the two-layer LL model and its estimation technique have appreciable flexibility to model the determinate harmonic signal in different chaotic backgrounds (Lorenz, Henon and Mackey-Glass (M-G) equations). Specifically, the harmonic signal can be extracted well with low SNR and the developed background algorithm satisfies the condition of convergence in repeated 3-5 times.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swamy, S.A.; Mandava, P.R.; Bhowmick, D.C.

The leak-before-break (LBB) methodology is accepted as a technically justifiable approach for eliminating postulation of Double-Ended Guillotine Breaks (DEGB) in high energy piping systems. This is the result of extensive research, development, and rigorous evaluations by the NRC and the commercial nuclear power industry since the early 1970s. The DEGB postulation is responsible for the many hundreds of pipe whip restraints and jet shields found in commercial nuclear plants. These restraints and jet shields not only cost many millions of dollars, but also cause plant congestion leading to reduced reliability in inservice inspection and increased man-rem exposure. While use ofmore » leak-before-break technology saved hundreds of millions of dollars in backfit costs to many operating Westinghouse plants, value-impacts resulting from the application of this technology for future plants are greater on a per plant basis. These benefits will be highlighted in this paper. The LBB technology has been applied extensively to high energy piping systems in operating plants. However, there are differences between the application of LBB technology to an operating plant and to a new plant design. In this paper an approach is proposed which is suitable for application of LBB to a new plant design such as the Westinghouse AP600. The approach is based on generating Bounding Analyses Curves (BAC) for the candidate piping systems. The general methodology and criteria used for developing the BACs are based on modified GDC-4 and Standard Review Plan (SRP) 3.6.3. The BAC allows advance evaluation of the piping system from the LBB standpoint thereby assuring LBB conformance for the piping system. The piping designer can use the results of the BACs to determine acceptability of design loads and make modifications (in terms of piping layout and support configurations) as necessary at the design stage to assure LBB for the, piping systems under consideration.« less