The Future of Evaluation in a Climate of Federal Deregulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkel-Keller, Claudia

The future role and importance of educational evaluation are analyzed in terms of the Educational Consolidation and Improvement Act (1981), a block grant whose provisions minimize planning, reporting, evaluation and accountability requirements to ensure that national goals are met. The background in federal and state evaluation programs is…

Results of a community-based survey of construction safety climate for Hispanic workers

PubMed Central

Marin, Luz S; Cifuentes, Manuel; Roelofs, Cora

2015-01-01

Background: Hispanic construction workers experience high rates of occupational injury, likely influenced by individual, organizational, and social factors. Objectives: To characterize the safety climate of Hispanic construction workers using worker, contractor, and supervisor perceptions of the workplace. Methods: We developed a 40-item interviewer-assisted survey with six safety climate dimensions and administered it in Spanish and English to construction workers, contractors, and supervisors. A safety climate model, comparing responses and assessing contributing factors was created based on survey responses. Results: While contractors and construction supervisors’ (n = 128) scores were higher, all respondents shared a negative perception of safety climate. Construction workers had statistically significantly lower safety climate scores compared to supervisors and contractors (30.6 vs 46.5%, P<0.05). Safety climate scores were not associated with English language ability or years lived in the United States. Conclusions: We found that Hispanic construction workers in this study experienced a poor safety climate. The Hispanic construction safety climate model we propose can serve as a framework to guide organizational safety interventions and evaluate safety climate improvements. PMID:26145454

Ties with Potential: Social Network Structure and Innovative Climate in Dutch Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moolenaar, Nienke M.; Daly, Alan J.; Sleegers, Peter J. C.

2011-01-01

Background/Context: Similar to the United States, government efforts to improve education in the Netherlands are focused on innovation and the development of collaborative structures to support the generation of new knowledge. However, empirical evidence of the relationship between social linkages and innovation in education is scarce. Objective:…

The temporal dimension of regime shifts: How long can ecosystems operate beyond critical thresholds before transitions become irreversible?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Ecosystem thresholds are often identified by observing or inducing slow changes in different driver variables and investigating changes in the asymptotic state of the system, such as the response of lakes to nutrient loading or biome responses to climate change. Yet ma...

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Butterworth, Melinda K.; Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

2016-01-01

Background: Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission. Objectives: We assessed projected climate change–driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region. Methods: We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic. Results: Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations. Citation: Butterworth MK, Morin CW, Comrie AC. 2017. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:579–585; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP218 PMID:27713106

Invasive potential of cattle fever ticks in the southern United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Abstract' Background For >100 years cattle production in the southern United States has been threatened by cattle fever. It is caused by an invasive parasite-vector complex that includes the protozoan hemoparasites Babesia bovis and B. bigemina, which are transmitted among domestic cattle via Rhipicephalus tick vectors of the subgenus Boophilus. In 1906 an eradication effort was started and by 1943 Boophilus ticks had been confined to a narrow tick eradication quarantine area (TEQA) along the Texas-Mexico border. However, a dramatic increase in tick infestations in areas outside the TEQA over the last decade suggests these tick vectors may be poised to re-invade the southern United States. We investigated historical and potential future distributions of climatic habitats of cattle fever ticks to assess the potential for a range expansion. Methods We built robust spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the vector species Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. (B.) annulatus across the southern United States for three time periods: 1906, present day (2012), and 2050. We used analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) to identify persistent tick occurrences and analysis of bias in the climate proximate to these occurrences to identify key environmental parameters associated with the ecology of both species. We then used ecological niche modeling algorithms GARP and Maxent to construct models that related known occurrences of ticks in the TEQA during 2001–2011 with geospatial data layers that summarized important climate parameters at all three time periods. Results We identified persistent tick infestations and specific climate parameters that appear to be drivers of ecological niches of the two tick species. Spatial models projected onto climate data representative of climate in 1906 reproduced historical pre-eradication tick distributions. Present-day predictions, although constrained to areas near the TEQA, extrapolated well onto climate projections for 2050. Conclusions Our models indicate the potential for range expansion of climate suitable for survival of R. microplus and R. annulatus in the southern United States by mid-century, which increases the risk of reintroduction of these ticks and cattle tick fever into major cattle producing areas. PMID:24742062

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning and Climate Change: Analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Strickland, Matthew J.; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Background: Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Increased severe storm frequency may create more habitat for ciguatoxic organisms. Although climate change could expand the endemic range of CFP, the relationship between CFP incidence and specific environmental conditions is unknown. Objectives: We estimated associations between monthly CFP incidence in the contiguous United States and SST and storm frequency in the Caribbean basin. Methods: We obtained information on 1,102 CFP-related calls to U.S. poison control centers during 2001–2011 from the National Poison Data System. We performed a time-series analysis using Poisson regression to relate monthly CFP call incidence to SST and tropical storms. We investigated associations across a range of plausible lag structures. Results: Results showed associations between monthly CFP calls and both warmer SSTs and increased tropical storm frequency. The SST variable with the strongest association linked current monthly CFP calls to the peak August SST of the previous year. The lag period with the strongest association for storms was 18 months. If climate change increases SST in the Caribbean 2.5–3.5°C over the coming century as projected, this model implies that CFP incidence in the United States is likely to increase 200–400%. Conclusions: Using CFP calls as a marker of CFP incidence, these results clarify associations between climate variability and CFP incidence and suggest that, all other things equal, climate change could increase the burden of CFP. These findings have implications for disease prediction, surveillance, and public health preparedness for climate change. Citation: Gingold DB, Strickland MJ, Hess JJ. 2014. Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center data in the United States, 2001–2011. Environ Health Perspect 122:580–586; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307196 PMID:24618280

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

PubMed

Dodo, Mahamat K

2014-01-01

Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

Emotional Intelligence, Motivational Climate and Levels of Anxiety in Athletes from Different Categories of Sports: Analysis through Structural Equations.

PubMed

Castro-Sánchez, Manuel; Zurita-Ortega, Félix; Chacón-Cuberos, Ramón; López-Gutiérrez, Carlos Javier; Zafra-Santos, Edson

2018-05-01

(1) Background: Psychological factors can strongly affect the athletes’ performance. Therefore, currently the role of the sports psychologist is particularly relevant, being in charge of training the athlete’s psychological factors. This study aims at analysing the connections between motivational climate in sport, anxiety and emotional intelligence depending on the type of sport practised (individual/team) by means of a multigroup structural equations analysis. (2) 372 semi-professional Spanish athletes took part in this investigation, analysing motivational climate (PMCSQ-2), emotional intelligence (SSRI) and levels of anxiety (STAI). A model of multigroup structural equations was carried out which fitted accordingly (χ² = 586.77; df = 6.37; p < 0.001; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.951; Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.938; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.947; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.069). (3) Results: A negative and direct connection has been found between ego oriented climate and task oriented climate, which is stronger and more differentiated in team sports. The most influential indicator in ego oriented climate is intra-group rivalry, exerting greater influence in individual sports. For task-oriented climate the strongest indicator is having an important role in individual sports, while in team sports it is cooperative learning. Emotional intelligence dimensions correlate more strongly in team sports than in individual sports. In addition, there was a negative and indirect relation between task oriented climate and trait-anxiety in both categories of sports. (4) Conclusions: This study shows how the task-oriented motivational climate or certain levels of emotional intelligence can act preventively in the face of anxiety states in athletes. Therefore, the development of these psychological factors could prevent anxiety states and improve performance in athletes.

Emotional Intelligence, Motivational Climate and Levels of Anxiety in Athletes from Different Categories of Sports: Analysis through Structural Equations

PubMed Central

López-Gutiérrez, Carlos Javier; Zafra-Santos, Edson

2018-01-01

(1) Background: Psychological factors can strongly affect the athletes’ performance. Therefore, currently the role of the sports psychologist is particularly relevant, being in charge of training the athlete’s psychological factors. This study aims at analysing the connections between motivational climate in sport, anxiety and emotional intelligence depending on the type of sport practised (individual/team) by means of a multigroup structural equations analysis. (2) 372 semi-professional Spanish athletes took part in this investigation, analysing motivational climate (PMCSQ-2), emotional intelligence (SSRI) and levels of anxiety (STAI). A model of multigroup structural equations was carried out which fitted accordingly (χ2 = 586.77; df = 6.37; p < 0.001; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.951; Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.938; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.947; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.069). (3) Results: A negative and direct connection has been found between ego oriented climate and task oriented climate, which is stronger and more differentiated in team sports. The most influential indicator in ego oriented climate is intra-group rivalry, exerting greater influence in individual sports. For task-oriented climate the strongest indicator is having an important role in individual sports, while in team sports it is cooperative learning. Emotional intelligence dimensions correlate more strongly in team sports than in individual sports. In addition, there was a negative and indirect relation between task oriented climate and trait-anxiety in both categories of sports. (4) Conclusions: This study shows how the task-oriented motivational climate or certain levels of emotional intelligence can act preventively in the face of anxiety states in athletes. Therefore, the development of these psychological factors could prevent anxiety states and improve performance in athletes. PMID:29724008

An Analysis of the Attraction and Holding Power of Motor Skill Stations Used in a Mastery Motivational Physical Education Climate for Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hastie, Peter A.; Johnson, Jerraco L.; Rudisill, Mary E.

2018-01-01

Background: The template for the current study was the project conducted by Rosenthal [1973. "An Ecological Study of Free Play in the Nursery School." Doctoral diss., Wayne State University] where she investigated the attraction and holding power of various learning centres during free play in a naturalistic preschool setting.…

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2010-01-01

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodros, J. K.; Scott, C. E.; Farina, S. C.; Lee, Y. H.; L'Orange, C.; Volckens, J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-04-01

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model nucleation and background SOA. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include: amount, composition, size and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (internal, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2 across all simulation/mixing state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from -0.2 to +1.2 W m-2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect ranges from +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from -1.0 to -0.05 W m-2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse-gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on: (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodros, J. K.; Scott, C. E.; Farina, S. C.; Lee, Y. H.; L'Orange, C.; Volckens, J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-08-01

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing state, and model nucleation and background secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include amount, composition, size, and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (homogeneous, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2 across all simulation/mixing-state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from -0.2 to +0.8 W m-2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) ranges from +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from -1.0 to -0.05 W m-2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions, and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution, and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

Urban impacts on regional carbonaceous aerosols: case study in central Texas.

PubMed

Barrett, Tate E; Sheesley, Rebecca J

2014-08-01

Rural and background sites provide valuable information on the concentration and optical properties of organic, elemental, and water-soluble organic carbon (OC, EC, and WSOC), which are relevant for understanding the climate forcing potential of regional atmospheric aerosols. To quantify climate- and air quality-relevant characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in the central United States, a regional background site in central Texas was chosen for long-term measurement. Back trajectory (BT) analysis, ambient OC, EC, and WSOC concentrations and absorption parameters are reported for the first 15 months of a long-term campaign (May 2011-August 2012). BT analysis indicates consistent north-south airflow connecting central Texas to the Central Plains. Central Texas aerosols exhibited seasonal trends with increased fine particulate matter (< 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) and OC during the summer (PM2.5 = 10.9 microg m(-3) and OC = 3.0 microg m(-3)) and elevated EC during the winter (0.22 microg m(-3)). When compared to measurements in Dallas and Houston, TX, central Texas OC appears to have mixed urban and rural sources. However central Texas EC appears to be dominated by transport of urban emissions. WSOC averaged 63% of the annual OC, with little seasonal variability in this ratio. To monitor brown carbon (BrC), absorption was measured for the aqueous WSOC extracts. Light absorption coefficients for EC and BrC were highest during summer (EC MAC = 11 m2 g(-1) and BRC MAE365 = 0.15 m2 g(-1)). Results from optical analysis indicate that regional aerosol absorption is mostly due to EC with summertime peaks in BrC attenuation. This study represents the first reported values of WSOC absorption, MAE365, for the central United States. Implications: Background concentration and absorption measurements are essential in determining regional potential radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols. Back trajectory, chemical, and optical analysis of PM2.5 was used to determine climatic and air quality implications of urban outflow to a regional receptor site, representative of the central United States. Results indicate that central Texas organic carbon has mixed urban and rural sources, while elemental carbon is controlled by the transport of urban emissions. Analysis of aerosol absorption showed black carbon as the dominant absorber, with less brown carbon absorption than regional studies in California and the southeastern United States.

Relative Roles of Weather Variables and Change in Human Population in Malaria: Comparison over Different States of India

PubMed Central

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Background Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. Method We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. Results For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. Conclusion The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria. PMID:24971510

Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like land planet with overland water recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalidindi, S.; Reick, C. H.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.

2017-12-01

Prior studies have demonstrated that habitable areas on low-obliquity land planets are confined to the edges of frozen ice caps. Whether such dry planets can maintain long-lived liquid water is unclear. Leconte et al. 2013 argue that on such planets mechanisms like gravity driven ice flows and geothermal flux can maintain liquid water at the edges of thick ice caps and this water may flow back to the lower latitudes through rivers. However, there exists no modelling study which investigates the climate of an Earth-like land planet with an overland recycling mechanism bringing fresh water back from higher to lower latitudes. In our study, by using a comprehensive climate model ICON, we find that an Earth-like land planet with an overland recycling mechanism can exist in two drastically different climate states for the same set of boundary conditions and parameter values: A Cold and Wet (CW) state with dominant low-latitude precipitation and, a Hot and Dry (HD) state with only high-latitude precipitation. For perpetual equinox conditions, both climate states are stable below a certain threshold value of background soil albedo (α) while above that only the CW state is stable. Starting from the HD state and increasing α above the threshold causes an abrupt shift from the HD state to the CW state resulting in a sudden cooling of about 35°C globally which is of the order of the temperature difference between the present-day and the Snowball Earth state. In contrast to the Snowball Earth instability, we find that the sudden cooling in our study is driven by the cloud albedo feedback rather than the snow-albedo feedback. Also, when α in the CW state is reduced back to zero the land planet does not display a closed hysteresis. Our study also has implications for the habitability of Earth-like land planets. At the inner edge of the habitable zone, the higher cloud cover in the CW state cools the planet and may prevent the onset of a runaway greenhouse state. At the outer edge, the resupply of water at lower latitudes stabilizes the greenhouse effect and keeps the planet in the HD state and may prevent water from getting trapped at higher latitudes in frozen form. Overall, the existence of bi-stability in the presence of an overland recycling mechanism hints at the possibility of a wider habitable zone for Earth-like land planets at lower obliquities.

Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

2012-01-01

Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US$26–$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial. PMID:22922791

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Seasonality and Management Affect Land Surface Temperature Differences Between Loblolly Pine and Switchgrass Ecosystems in Central Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlswede, B.; Thomas, R. Q.; O'Halloran, T. L.; Rady, J.; LeMoine, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in land-use and land management can have biogeochemical and biophysical effects on local and global climate. While managed ecosystems provide known food and fiber benefits, their influence on climate is less well quantified. In the southeastern United States, there are numerous types of intensely managed ecosystems but pine plantations and switchgrass fields represent two biogeochemical and biophysical extremes; a tall, low albedo forest with trees harvested after multiple decades vs. a short, higher albedo C4 grass field that is harvested annually. Despite the wide spread use of these ecosystems for timber and bioenergy, a quantitative, empirical evaluation of the net influence of these ecosystems on climate is lacking because it requires measuring both the greenhouse gas and energy balance of the ecosystems while controlling for the background weather and soil environment. To address this need, we established a pair of eddy flux towers in these ecosystems that are co-located (1.5 km apart) in Central Virginia and measured the radiative energy, non-radiative energy and carbon fluxes, along with associated biometeorology variables; the paired site has run since April 2016. During the first 1.5 years (two growing seasons), we found strong seasonality in the difference in surface temperature between the two ecosystems. In the growing seasons, both sites had similar surface temperature despite higher net radiation in pine. Following harvest of the switchgrass in September, the switchgrass temperatures increased relative to pine. In the winter, the pine ecosystem was warmer. We evaluate the drivers of these intra-annual dynamics and compare the climate influence of these biophysical differences to the differences in carbon fluxes between the sites using a suite of established climate regulation services metrics. Overall, our results show tradeoffs exist between the biogeochemical and biophysical climate services in managed ecosystems in the southeastern United States and highlight the importance of seasonality when quantifying how land-use and land-cover change influence climate. These data, when combined with earth system models, will help inform our understanding of how land-use and land change decisions in the southeastern United States will influence local, regional, and global climate.

Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science

PubMed Central

Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2012-01-01

Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457

Climate Neutral Research Campuses | NREL

Science.gov Websites

the background. Set an example for climate neutrality. Use NREL's climate action planning process and more. Climate Action Planning Process Identify the best technology options for a climate action plan . Climate Action Planning Tool Identify the best technology options for a climate action plan. Technology

Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Hosmay; West, Robert; Dong, Shenfu; Goni, Gustavo; Kirtman, Ben; Lee, Sang-Ki; Atlas, Robert

2018-05-01

Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence (ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions.

Climate Change: Good for Us?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oblak, Jackie

2000-01-01

Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

A Research Synthesis of the Associations between Socioeconomic Background, Inequality, School Climate, and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkowitz, Ruth; Moore, Hadass; Astor, Ron Avi; Benbenishty, Rami

2017-01-01

Educational researchers and practitioners assert that supportive school and classroom climates can positively influence the academic outcomes of students, thus potentially reducing academic achievement gaps between students and schools of different socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. Nonetheless, scientific evidence establishing directional…

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall structure of the variance spectrum has important consequences for the probability of multi-year drought. Our lake record suggests there is a significant background threat of multi-year, and even decade-length, drought in western Amazonia, whereas climate model simulations indicate most droughts likely last no longer than one to three years. These findings suggest climate models may underestimate the future risk of extended drought in this important region. In Appendix C, we expand our analysis of climate variability beyond South America. We use observations, well-constrained tropical paleoclimate, and Earth system model data to examine the overall shape of the climate spectrum across interannual to century frequencies. We find a general agreement among observations and models that temperature variability increases with timescale across most of the globe outside the tropics. However, as compared to paleoclimate records, climate models generate too little low-frequency variability in the tropics (e.g., Laepple and Huybers, 2014). When we compare the shape of the simulated climate spectrum to the spectrum of a simple autoregressive process, we find much of the modeled surface temperature variability in the tropics could be explained by ocean smoothing of weather noise. Importantly, modeled precipitation tends to be similar to white noise across much of the globe. By contrast, paleoclimate records of various types from around the globe indicate that both temperature and precipitation variability should experience much more low-frequency variability than a simple autoregressive or white-noise process. In summary, state-of-the-art climate models generate some degree of dynamically driven low-frequency climate variability, especially at high latitudes. However, the latest climate models, observations, and paleoclimate data provide us with drastically different pictures of the background climate system and its associated risks. This research has important consequences for improving how we simulate climate extremes as we enter a warmer (and often drier) world in the coming centuries; if climate models underestimate low-frequency variability, we will underestimate the risk of future abrupt change and extreme events, such as megadroughts.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change, Space Weather and Space Technology Research and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Austin, S. A.; Howard, A. M.; Boxe, C.; Jiang, M.; Tulsee, T.; Chow, Y. W.; Zavala-Gutierrez, R.; Barley, R.; Filin, B.; Brathwaite, K.

2015-12-01

This presentation describes projects at Medgar Evers College of the City University of New York that contribute to the preparation of a diverse workforce in the areas of ocean modeling, planetary atmospheres, space weather and space technology. Specific projects incorporating both undergraduate and high school students include Assessing Parameterizations of Energy Input to Internal Ocean Mixing, Reaction Rate Uncertainty on Mars Atmospheric Ozone, Remote Sensing of Solar Active Regions and Intelligent Software for Nano-satellites. These projects are accompanied by a newly developed Computational Earth and Space Science course to provide additional background on methodologies and tools for scientific data analysis. This program is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research and the NASA New York State Space Grant Consortium.

Investigating the role of background and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of forest carbon balance using four dimensional variational data assimilation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinnington, Ewan; Casella, Eric; Dance, Sarah; Lawless, Amos; Morison, James; Nichols, Nancy; Wilkinson, Matthew; Quaife, Tristan

2016-04-01

Forest ecosystems play an important role in sequestering human emitted carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere and therefore greatly reduce the effect of anthropogenic induced climate change. For that reason understanding their response to climate change is of great importance. Efforts to implement variational data assimilation routines with functional ecology models and land surface models have been limited, with sequential and Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation methods being prevalent. When data assimilation has been used with models of carbon balance, background "prior" errors and observation errors have largely been treated as independent and uncorrelated. Correlations between background errors have long been known to be a key aspect of data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. More recently, it has been shown that accounting for correlated observation errors in the assimilation algorithm can considerably improve data assimilation results and forecasts. In this paper we implement a 4D-Var scheme with a simple model of forest carbon balance, for joint parameter and state estimation and assimilate daily observations of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange (NEE) taken at the Alice Holt forest CO2 flux site in Hampshire, UK. We then investigate the effect of specifying correlations between parameter and state variables in background error statistics and the effect of specifying correlations in time between observation error statistics. The idea of including these correlations in time is new and has not been previously explored in carbon balance model data assimilation. In data assimilation, background and observation error statistics are often described by the background error covariance matrix and the observation error covariance matrix. We outline novel methods for creating correlated versions of these matrices, using a set of previously postulated dynamical constraints to include correlations in the background error statistics and a Gaussian correlation function to include time correlations in the observation error statistics. The methods used in this paper will allow the inclusion of time correlations between many different observation types in the assimilation algorithm, meaning that previously neglected information can be accounted for. In our experiments we compared the results using our new correlated background and observation error covariance matrices and those using diagonal covariance matrices. We found that using the new correlated matrices reduced the root mean square error in the 14 year forecast of daily NEE by 44 % decreasing from 4.22 g C m-2 day-1 to 2.38 g C m-2 day-1.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Replumbing of the Biological Pump caused by Millennial Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galbraith, E.; Sarmiento, J.

2008-12-01

It has been hypothesized that millennial-timescale variability in the biological pump was a critical instigator of glacial-interglacial cycles. However, even in the absence of changes in ecosystem function (e.g. due to iron fertilization), determining the mechanisms by which physical climate variability alters the biological pump is not simple. Changes in upper ocean circulation and deep water formation have previously been shown to alter both the downward flux of organic matter and the mass of respired carbon in the ocean interior, often in non- intuitive ways. For example, a reduced upward flux of nutrients at the global scale will decrease the global rate of export production, but it could either increase or decrease the respired carbon content of the ocean interior, depending on where the reduced upward flux of nutrients occurs. Furthermore, viable candidates for physical climate forcing are numerous, including changes in the westerly winds, changes in the depth of the thermocline, and changes in the formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Water, among others. We use a simple, prognostic, light-and temperature-dependent model of biogeochemical cycling within a state-of-the- art global coupled ocean-atmosphere model to examine the response of the biological pump to changes in the coupled Earth system over multiple centuries. The biogeochemical model explicitly distinguishes respired carbon from preformed and saturation carbon, allowing the activity of the biological pump to be clearly quantified. Changes are forced in the model by altering the background climate state, and by manipulating the flux of freshwater to the North Atlantic region. We show how these changes in the physical state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system impact the distribution and mass of respired carbon in the ocean interior, and the relationship these changes bear to global patterns of export production via the redistribution of nutrients.

State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piscatelli, Jennifer; Lee, Chiqueena

2011-01-01

The National School Climate Center (NSCC) completed a 50-state policy scan on state school climate and anti-bullying policies to better understand the current state policy infrastructure supporting the development of positive school climates. This policy brief examines the current status of school climate and anti-bullying policies in each state,…

Knowledge and perceptions about the health impact of climate change among health sciences students in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Climate change affects human health in various ways. Health planners and policy makers are increasingly addressing potential health impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is vulnerable to these impacts. Assessing students’ knowledge, understanding and perception about the health impact of climate change may promote educational endeavors to increase awareness of health impacts linked to climate change and to facilitate interventions. Methods A cross-sectional study using a questionnaire was carried out among the health science students at Haramaya University. Quantitative methods were used to analyze the results. Result Over three quarters of the students were aware of health consequences of climate change, with slightly higher rates in females than males and a range from 60.7% (pharmacy students) to 100% (environmental health and post-graduate public health students). Electronic mass media was reportedly the major source of information but almost all (87.7%) students stated that their knowledge was insufficient to fully understand the public health impacts of climate change. Students who knew about climate change were more likely to perceive it as a serious health threat than those who were unaware of these impacts [OR: 17.8, 95% CI: 8.8-32.1] and also considered their departments to be concerned about climate change (OR: 7.3, 95% CI: 2.8-18.8), a perception that was also significantly more common among students who obtained their information from the electronic mass media and schools (p < 0.05). Using electronic mass media was also significantly associated with knowledge about the health impacts of climate change. Conclusion Health sciences students at Haramaya University may benefit from a more comprehensive curriculum on climate change and its impacts on health. PMID:24916631

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

A Climate Ready Estuaries Vulnerability Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of the the Climate Ready Estuaries program is to build capacity in the National Estuary Programs (NEPs) for local leadership and expertise to adapt to the effects of climate change through a joint effort with the NEPs and EPA.

Background

The organizational social context of mental health services and clinician attitudes toward evidence-based practice: a United States national study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Evidence-based practices have not been routinely adopted in community mental health organizations despite the support of scientific evidence and in some cases even legislative or regulatory action. We examined the association of clinician attitudes toward evidence-based practice with organizational culture, climate, and other characteristics in a nationally representative sample of mental health organizations in the United States. Methods In-person, group-administered surveys were conducted with a sample of 1,112 mental health service providers in a nationwide sample of 100 mental health service institutions in 26 states in the United States. The study examines these associations with a two-level Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) analysis of responses to the Evidence-Based Practice Attitude Scale (EBPAS) at the individual clinician level as a function of the Organizational Social Context (OSC) measure at the organizational level, controlling for other organization and clinician characteristics. Results We found that more proficient organizational cultures and more engaged and less stressful organizational climates were associated with positive clinician attitudes toward adopting evidence-based practice. Conclusions The findings suggest that organizational intervention strategies for improving the organizational social context of mental health services may contribute to the success of evidence-based practice dissemination and implementation efforts by influencing clinician attitudes. PMID:22726759

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

Habitability of waterworlds: runaway greenhouses, atmospheric expansion, and multiple climate states of pure water atmospheres.

PubMed

Goldblatt, Colin

2015-05-01

There are four different stable climate states for pure water atmospheres, as might exist on so-called "waterworlds." I map these as a function of solar constant for planets ranging in size from Mars-sized to 10 Earth-mass. The states are as follows: globally ice covered (Ts ⪅ 245 K), cold and damp (270 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 290 K), hot and moist (350 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 550 K), and very hot and dry (Tsx2A86;900 K). No stable climate exists for 290 ⪅ T s ⪅ 350 K or 550 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 900 K. The union of hot moist and cold damp climates describes the liquid water habitable zone, the width and location of which depends on planet mass. At each solar constant, two or three different climate states are stable. This is a consequence of strong nonlinearities in both thermal emission and the net absorption of sunlight. Across the range of planet sizes, I account for the atmospheres expanding to high altitudes as they warm. The emitting and absorbing surfaces (optical depth of unity) move to high altitude, making their area larger than the planet surface, so more thermal radiation is emitted and more sunlight absorbed (the former dominates). The atmospheres of small planets expand more due to weaker gravity; the effective runaway greenhouse threshold is about 35 W m(-2) higher for Mars, 10 W m(-2) higher for Earth or Venus, but only a few W m(-2) higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet. There is an underlying (expansion-neglected) trend of increasing runaway greenhouse threshold with planetary size (40 W m(-2) higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet than for Mars). Summing these opposing trends means that Venus-sized (or slightly smaller) planets are most susceptible to a runaway greenhouse. The habitable zone for pure water atmospheres is very narrow, with an insolation range of 0.07 times the solar constant. A wider habitable zone requires background gas and greenhouse gas: N2 and CO2 on Earth, which are biologically controlled. Thus, habitability depends on inhabitance.

Background monitoring and its role in global estimation and forecast of the state of the biosphere.

PubMed

Izrael, Y A

1982-12-01

(1) Scientific grounds and the concept of monitoring as the system for observations, assessment and prediction of man-induced changes in the state of natural environment, the program and aims of the background monitoring were developed by the author in 1972-1980. These questions were discussed in detail at the International Symposium on Global Integrated Monitoring (Riga, U.S.S.R., December, 1978). It should be stressed that along with significant anthropogenic loading on large cities and industrial areas, natural ecosystems covering most of the Earth's territory are also exposed to quite extended, though insignificant anthropogenic effects. This paper proposes to consider the ways of the background information use for the biosphere state assessment and prediction. (2) Classification of objects for monitoring from the point of view of the consequences of the man-made impact, pollution in the first hand, is as follows: - population (public health); - ecosystem elements employed by man whose production is used by population (soil, water bodies, forest, etc.); - biotic elements of ecosystems (without the immediate consumed production); - abiotic constituents of natural ecosystems, considerable components of the biosphere, climatic system. (3) Historically, monitoring in all countries involves the first two spheres. The background monitoring also extends on the next two spheres. It should differentially take into account physical, chemical and biological factors of impacts. Indentification of biological effects is most complex and vital. Human impact at the background level proceeds indirectly through a general (global or regional) deterioration of the state of the biosphere. (4) Gradually the background monitoring is being practiced on a larger and larger scale. It is shown that the long-range atmospheric transport of pollutants in various regions leads to a gradual general increase of all the natural media pollution and to perceptible biological effects (soil and water acidification and resulting disturbances in the composition of soil and water organisms). The levels of the background impact differ. Thus, the background concentrations of a number of anthropogenic pollutants in Central Europe is 10-20 times higher than in Central Asia. (5) The area of priority in the background monitoring of the biosphere pollution has become evident: compounds of sulphur, mercury and their derivatives, organochloride pesticides, some radioactive substances (e.g., krypton-85 in the atmosphere). (6) The World Ocean is practically all contaminated on a global scale. Biological effects of the World Ocean pollution cause special concern. Particularly important consequences, including climate impact, may be caused by disturbances in energy and matter transfer between environmental media (water-air, water-bottom, etc.). The priority of the impact factors can be allocated here as well: oil products, metals, organochloride compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. (7) One of the most effective possibilities of environmental quality control is standardization which consists in elaboration of permissible ecological loadings upon ecosystems and natural media. The approach to ecological standardization differs from that of hygienic control in principle. The objective of ecological standardization is to ensure the integrity of the given ecosystem and natural environment on the whole. (8) Ecological standardization in its turn requires knowledge related to the damage from this or another impact because in such a case there is a possibility to compare ecological standards for the same ecosystem in the case when impacts are of different origin (e.g., different pollutants).

School Climate: Research, Policy, Practice, and Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Jonathan; McCabe, Libby; Michelli, Nicholas M.; Pickeral, Terry

2009-01-01

Background/Context: Educators have written about and studied school climate for 100 years. School climate refers to the quality and character of school life. School climate is based on patterns of people's experiences of school life and reflects norms, goals, values, interpersonal relationships, teaching and learning practices, and organizational…

Hydrologic and water quality sensitivity to climate and land ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page describes a current EPA ORD project. No project report or other download is available at this time. Please see the section Next Steps below for a timeline of anticipated products of this work. Background: Projected changes in climate during the next century could cause or contribute to increased flooding, drought, water quality degradation, and ecosystem impairment. The effects of climate change in different watersheds will vary due to regional differences in climate change, physiographic setting, and interaction with land-use, pollutant sources, and water management in different locations. EPA is conducting watershed modeling to develop hydrologic and water quality change scenarios for 20 relatively large U.S. watersheds. Watershed modeling will be conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed models. Study areas range from about 10,000-15,000 square miles in size, and will cover nearly every ecoregion in the United States and a range of hydro-climatic conditions. A range of hydrologic and water quality endpoints will be determined for each watershed simulation. Endpoints will be selected to inform upon a range of stream flow, water quality, aquatic ecosystem, and EPA program management goals and targets. Model simulations will be conducted to evaluate a range of projected future (2040-2070) changes in climate and land-use. Simulations will include baseline conditions,

Journal Article: Atmospheric Measurements of CDDs, CDFs ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The U.S. EPA established a National Dioxin Air Monitoring Network (NDAMN) to determine background air concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, and cp-PCBs in rural and remote areas of the United States. Background is defined as average ambient air concentrations inferred from long-term and multi-year atmospheric measurements at the same locations using identical monitoring and analytical procedures. The rural sites were chosen in order to obtain air concentrations in areas where crops and livestock are grown, and that encompassed a range of geographic locations in terms of latitudinal and longitudinal positions. Remote sites were selected on the basis that they were relatively free of human habitation and >100 km away from human dioxin sources. The locations of sampling sites covered a wide range of climate conditions from tropical sub-humid to sub-Artic climates. The idea behind the sampling configuration was to provide reasonable geographic coverage of the United States limited only by budgetary constraints. Funding was sufficient for the establishment and maintenance of 34 NDAMN stations over a period of 6 years. Results were reported as the toxic equivalent (TEQ) of the mix of PCDDs/PCDFs (TEQ-DF) and the mix of coplanar PCBs (TEQ-PCB). At the studied rural sites the mean annual TEQ-DF for each of the NDAMN sampling years was 10.43, 11.39, 10.40, and 10.47 femtograms per cubic meter (fg/cu. m) for 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002, respectively.There was no statistical

Habitability of Waterworlds: Runaway Greenhouses, Atmospheric Expansion, and Multiple Climate States of Pure Water Atmospheres

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Abstract There are four different stable climate states for pure water atmospheres, as might exist on so-called “waterworlds.” I map these as a function of solar constant for planets ranging in size from Mars-sized to 10 Earth-mass. The states are as follows: globally ice covered (Ts⪅245 K), cold and damp (270⪅Ts⪅290 K), hot and moist (350⪅Ts⪅550 K), and very hot and dry (Tsx2A86;900 K). No stable climate exists for 290⪅Ts ⪅350 K or 550⪅Ts⪅900 K. The union of hot moist and cold damp climates describes the liquid water habitable zone, the width and location of which depends on planet mass. At each solar constant, two or three different climate states are stable. This is a consequence of strong nonlinearities in both thermal emission and the net absorption of sunlight. Across the range of planet sizes, I account for the atmospheres expanding to high altitudes as they warm. The emitting and absorbing surfaces (optical depth of unity) move to high altitude, making their area larger than the planet surface, so more thermal radiation is emitted and more sunlight absorbed (the former dominates). The atmospheres of small planets expand more due to weaker gravity; the effective runaway greenhouse threshold is about 35 W m−2 higher for Mars, 10 W m−2 higher for Earth or Venus, but only a few W m−2 higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet. There is an underlying (expansion-neglected) trend of increasing runaway greenhouse threshold with planetary size (40 W m−2 higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet than for Mars). Summing these opposing trends means that Venus-sized (or slightly smaller) planets are most susceptible to a runaway greenhouse. The habitable zone for pure water atmospheres is very narrow, with an insolation range of 0.07 times the solar constant. A wider habitable zone requires background gas and greenhouse gas: N2 and CO2 on Earth, which are biologically controlled. Thus, habitability depends on inhabitance. Key Words: Habitable zone—Runaway greenhouse—Waterworld—Climate. Astrobiology 15, 362–370. PMID:25984919

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority climate change adaptation pilot project report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

This Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project Report details the project background of the recently-completed Los Angeles County : Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project as well as the various wor...

Navigating a Transdisciplinary Research Project with a Non-Traditional Academic Background: Climate Change, Soil Health and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basche, A.

2014-12-01

The Climate and Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agriculture Project (CSCAP) is a collaboration of 150+ team members spanning a range of scientific disciplinary backgrounds. The project goal is to produce collaborative research, education and extension aimed at mitigating and adapting Midwest cropping systems to climate variability and change. My PhD work in Agronomy and Sustainable Agriculture is a part of the CSCAP although my prior academic background was in applied climate science and biology, thus proposing a potential challenge to the new academic landscape. Further, graduate students within CSCAP are a part of a natural experiment in how the next generation of scientists operates in a transdisciplinary environment. As part of my leadership in the CSCAP, I helped to develop a "roadmap" document outlining the learning opportunities available to students. This document was meant to underscore the skills and experiences that will aid us in future collaborative research projects. Through these leadership experiences, I believe that the underpinning of any successful collaborative research project requires time: to develop relationships, earn trust and develop shared understandings and respect for different academic backgrounds.

Motivational Climate and Fundamental Motor Skill Performance in a Naturalistic Physical Education Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Ellen H.; Rudisill, Mary E.; Hastie, Peter A.

2009-01-01

Background: The literature on motivation suggests that student learning and performance is influenced by the motivational climate, and that positive benefits can be derived from exposure to a mastery motivational climate. Nonetheless, to date, only a few studies have attempted to investigate a mastery motivational climate in a naturalistic setting…

The Association of School Climate, Depression Literacy, and Mental Health Stigma among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townsend, Lisa; Musci, Rashelle; Stuart, Elizabeth; Ruble, Anne; Beaudry, Mary B.; Schweizer, Barbara; Owen, Megan; Goode, Carly; Johnson, Sarah L.; Bradshaw, Catherine; Wilcox, Holly; Swartz, Karen

2017-01-01

Background: Although school climate is linked with youth educational, socioemotional, behavioral, and health outcomes, there has been limited research on the association between school climate and mental health education efforts. We explored whether school climate was associated with students' depression literacy and mental health stigma beliefs.…

A Professional Development Climate Course for Sustainable Agriculture in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George, David; Clewett, Jeff; Birch, Colin; Wright, Anthony; Allen, Wendy

2009-01-01

There are few professional development courses in Australia for the rural sector concerned with climate variability, climate change and sustainable agriculture. The lack of educators with a sound technical background in climate science and its applications in agriculture prevents the delivery of courses either stand-alone or embedded in other…

NOAA's State Climate Summaries for the National Climate Assessment: A Sustained Assessment Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Champion, S.; Frankson, R.; Easterling, D. R.; Griffin, J.; Runkle, J. D.; Stevens, L. E.; Stewart, B. C.; Sun, L.; Veasey, S.

2016-12-01

A set of State Climate Summaries have been produced for all 50 U.S. states as part of the National Climate Assessment Sustained Assessment and represent a NOAA contribution to this process. Each summary includes information on observed and projected climate change conditions and impacts associated with future greenhouse gas emissions pathways. The summaries focus on the physical climate and coastal issues as a part of NOAA's mission. Core climate data and simulations used to produce these summaries have been previously published, and have been analyzed to represent a targeted synthesis of historical and plausible future climate conditions. As these are intended to be supplemental to major climate assessment development, the scope of the content remains true to a "summary" style document. Each state's Climate Summary includes its climatology and projections of future temperatures and precipitation, which are presented in order to provide a context for the assessment of future impacts. The climatological component focuses on temperature, precipitation, and noteworthy weather events specific to each state and relevant to the climate change discussion. Future climate scenarios are also briefly discussed, using well-known and consistent sets of climate model simulations based on two possible futures of greenhouse gas emissions. These future scenarios present an internally consistent climate picture for every state and are intended to inform the potential impacts of climate change. These 50 State Climate Summaries were produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the North Carolina State University Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC (CICS-NC) with additional input provided by climate experts, including the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and State Climatologists. Each summary document also underwent a comprehensive and anonymous peer review. Each summary contains text, figures, and an interactive web presentation. A full suite of the comprehensive analyses and metadata are also available. The audience is targeted as both decision-makers and informed non-scientists. This presentation will discuss the scientific development for the project, demonstrate the suite of information, and provide examples of noteworthy figures from select states.

Large Scale Eocene Ocean Circulation Transition Could Help Antarctic Glaciation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M.

2016-12-01

The global climate underwent major changes going from the Eocene into the Oligocene, including the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. In addition to a gradual drawdown of CO2 since the Early Eocene, the changing background geography of the earth may also have played a crucial role in setting the background oceanic circulation pattern favorable to ice growth. On the other hand, the ocean circulation may have changed only after the ice sheet started growing, with a similar climatic imprint. It is, therefore, still under debate what the primary forcing or trigger of this transition was. Using an ocean general circulation model (POP) and two different geography reconstruc-tions for the middle-late Eocene, we find two distinctly different patterns of the oceanic circulation to be possible under the same forcing. The first one features deep-water formation and warmer SSTs in the Southern Pacific while in the second, deep water forms in the North Pacific Ocean and Southern Ocean SSTs are colder. The presence of a double equilibrium shows that the ocean circulation was highly susceptible to large scale transitions during the middle-late Eocene. Additionally, changes in benthic oxygen and Neodymium isotopes depict significant changes during the same period. We suggest that a transition in the global meridional overturing circulation can explain the observed changes and preconditions the global climate for the two-step transition into an Icehouse state at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary.

Reevaluation of a classic phylogeographic barrier: new techniques reveal the influence of microgeographic climate variation on population divergence

PubMed Central

Soto-Centeno, J Angel; Barrow, Lisa N; Allen, Julie M; Reed, David L

2013-01-01

We evaluated the mtDNA divergence and relationships within Geomys pinetis to assess the status of formerly recognized Geomys taxa. Additionally, we integrated new hypothesis-based tests in ecological niche models (ENM) to provide greater insight into causes for divergence and potential barriers to gene flow in Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, and Georgia). Our DNA sequence dataset confirmed and strongly supported two distinct lineages within G. pinetis occurring east and west of the ARD. Divergence date estimates showed that eastern and western lineages diverged about 1.37 Ma (1.9 Ma–830 ka). Predicted distributions from ENMs were consistent with molecular data and defined each population east and west of the ARD with little overlap. Niche identity and background similarity tests were statistically significant suggesting that ENMs from eastern and western lineages are not identical or more similar than expected based on random localities drawn from the environmental background. ENMs also support the hypothesis that the ARD represents a ribbon of unsuitable climate between more suitable areas where these populations are distributed. The estimated age of divergence between eastern and western lineages of G. pinetis suggests that the divergence was driven by climatic conditions during Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles. The ARD at the contact zone of eastern and western lineages of G. pinetis forms a significant barrier promoting microgeographic isolation that helps maintain ecological and genetic divergence. PMID:23789071

Soil Dust Aerosols and Wind as Predictors of Seasonal Meningitis Incidence in Niger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perez Garcia Pando, Carlos; Stanton, Michelle C.; Diggle, Peter J.; Trzaska, Sylwia; Miller, Ron L.; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Baldasano, Jose M.; Cuevas, Emilio; Ceccato, Pietro; Yaka, Pascal;

Regional Morphology Analysis Package (RMAP): Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis, Background and Examples

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-01

1984. Complex principal component analysis : Theory and examples. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23: 1660-1673. Hotelling, H. 1933...Sediments 99. ASCE: 2,566-2,581. Von Storch, H., and A. Navarra. 1995. Analysis of climate variability. Applications of statistical techniques. Berlin...ERDC TN-SWWRP-07-9 October 2007 Regional Morphology Empirical Analysis Package (RMAP): Orthogonal Function Analysis , Background and Examples by

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

Multilevel Factor Structure and Concurrent Validity of the Teacher Version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Francis L.; Cornell, Dewey G.; Konold, Timothy; Meyer, Joseph P.; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin K.; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan D.

2015-01-01

Background: School climate is well recognized as an important influence on student behavior and adjustment to school, but there is a need for theory-guided measures that make use of teacher perspectives. Authoritative school climate theory hypothesizes that a positive school climate is characterized by high levels of disciplinary structure and…

December 2012 Policy Update: School Climate and Bully Prevention Trends State-by-State Assessment. School Climate Brief, Number 6

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bellizio, Dan

2012-01-01

This December 2012 Brief updates NSCC's 2011 report "State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil School"s (www.schoolclimate.org/climate/papers-briefs.php). This Brief provides a summary of State level: (1) anti-bullying legislation; (2)…

Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

PubMed

2011-12-01

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

Taming The Polar Bear

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

Kennedy, “2012 State of the Climate : Arctiv Sea Ice” NOAA Climate.gov, 30 July 2013, http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2012...Kennedy, Caitlin, “2012 State of the Climate : Arctiv Sea Ice” NOAA Climate.gov, 30 July 2013, http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding

Greenhouse Gas-ette Fall 1988, Spring, Fall 1989, Winter, Spring, Fall 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhouse Gas-ette, 1990

1990-01-01

This newsletter is for educators interested in developing lessons related to global climate change. The newsletter contains sample lessons, news items involving global climate change on an international scale, and background information on issues related to global climate change. (CW)

Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2017-04-01

The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates.

Sensitivity of ENSO teleconnections to a warming background state.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouard, Marie; Cassou, Christophe

2016-04-01

The sensitivity of ENSO teleconnections to the background state is investigated using two ensembles of coupled model experiments, one representative of the pre-industrial climate and the other one expected of the end of the 21st century based on the high emission RCP85 scenario. A 30-year period of representative ENSO events bearing resemblance to observed ones is a priori selected from a 850-year pre-industrial simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. Following the so-called pacemaker protocol, new coupled experiments are carried with the model SST being restored in the eastern tropical Pacific towards the selected anomalies, the rest of the globe being fully coupled. In the first set of experiments, the anomalous restoring is applied on top of pre-industrial mean ocean state and in the second, on top of RCP85 mean state. Two sets of 10-member of 30-year long integrations are then generated. By construction, they share the exact same ENSO and thus make it possible to strictly isolate the dependence of the ENSO teleconnections to a warmer background state. Results confirm the eastward shift of the ENSO-induced deepening Aleutian low as documented in the literature for the winter season. They also show changes in the wintertime teleconnection over the North Atlantic. Several diagnostic tools (such as E-vectors) are used to investigate the dynamics of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and dowstream towards the North Atlantic along the jet wave guide. A more indirect route based on the change in the Walker cell and associated signals in the tropical Atlantic leading to the excitation of forced Rossby wave is also analysed.

Climate Action Benefits: Electricity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between electricity and climate change and describes what the CIRA Electricity analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Electricity Demand and Electricity Supply.

Climate Change: Issues in the Science and Its Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

7 3. The State of the Climate : Changes since the IPCC AR4...together with a review of the current state of the climate itself that establishes the importance of advancing our understanding. In the interests...common data stewardship and sharing standards. 3. The  State   of   the   Climate : Changes since the IPCC AR4  We assess the state of the climate against the

Background element content of the lichen Pseudevernia furfuracea: A supra-national state of art implemented by novel field data from Italy.

PubMed

Cecconi, Elva; Incerti, Guido; Capozzi, Fiore; Adamo, Paola; Bargagli, Roberto; Benesperi, Renato; Candotto Carniel, Fabio; Favero-Longo, Sergio Enrico; Giordano, Simonetta; Puntillo, Domenico; Ravera, Sonia; Spagnuolo, Valeria; Tretiach, Mauro

2018-05-01

In biomonitoring, the knowledge of background element content (BEC) values is an essential pre-requisite for the correct assessment of pollution levels. Here, we estimated the BEC values of a highly performing biomonitor, the epiphytic lichen Pseudevernia furfuracea, by means of a careful review of literature data, integrated by an extensive field survey. Methodologically homogeneous element content datasets, reflecting different exposure conditions across European and extra-European countries, were compiled and comparatively analysed. Element content in samples collected in remote areas was compared to that of potentially enriched samples, testing differences between medians for 25 elements. This analysis confirmed that the former samples were substantially unaffected by anthropogenic contributions, and their metrics were therefore proposed as a first overview at supra-national background level. We also showed that bioaccumulation studies suffer a huge methodological variability. Limited to original field data, we investigated the background variability of 43 elements in 62 remote Italian sites, characterized in GIS environment for anthropization, land use, climate and lithology at different scale resolution. The relationships between selected environmental descriptors and BEC were tested using Principal Component Regression (PCR) modelling. Elemental composition resulted significantly dependent on land use, climate and lithology. In the case of lithogenic elements, regression models correctly reproduced the lichen content throughout the country at randomly selected sites. Further descriptors should be identified only for As, Co, and V. Through a multivariate approach we also identified three geographically homogeneous macro-regions for which specific BECs were provided for use as reference in biomonitoring applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

PubMed Central

Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

2017-01-01

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

78 FR 66817 - Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-06

...--Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change #0; #0; #0; Presidential Documents #0; #0; #0... the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change By the authority vested in me as President by the... of climate change by undertaking actions to enhance climate preparedness and resilience, it is hereby...

Effects of Climate Change on Salmonella Infections

PubMed Central

Akil, Luma; Reddy, Remata S.

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Climate change and global warming have been reported to increase spread of foodborne pathogens. To understand these effects on Salmonella infections, modeling approaches such as regression analysis and neural network (NN) were used. Methods: Monthly data for Salmonella outbreaks in Mississippi (MS), Tennessee (TN), and Alabama (AL) were analyzed from 2002 to 2011 using analysis of variance and time series analysis. Meteorological data were collected and the correlation with salmonellosis was examined using regression analysis and NN. Results: A seasonal trend in Salmonella infections was observed (p<0.001). Strong positive correlation was found between high temperature and Salmonella infections in MS and for the combined states (MS, TN, AL) models (R2=0.554; R2=0.415, respectively). NN models showed a strong effect of rise in temperature on the Salmonella outbreaks. In this study, an increase of 1°F was shown to result in four cases increase of Salmonella in MS. However, no correlation between monthly average precipitation rate and Salmonella infections was observed. Conclusion: There is consistent evidence that gastrointestinal infection with bacterial pathogens is positively correlated with ambient temperature, as warmer temperatures enable more rapid replication. Warming trends in the United States and specifically in the southern states may increase rates of Salmonella infections. PMID:25496072

Strong contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of urban green vegetation.

PubMed

Yu, Zhaowu; Xu, Shaobin; Zhang, Yuhan; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Vejre, Henrik

2018-05-01

Utilization of urban green vegetation (UGV) has been recognized as a promising option to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect. While we still lack understanding of the contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of UGV. Here we proposed and employed a cooling effect framework and selected eight typical cities located in Temperate Monsoon Climate (TMC) and Mediterranean Climate (MC) demonstrate that local climate condition largely affects the cooling effect of UGV. Specifically, we found increasing (artificial) rainfall and irrigation contribute to improving the cooling intensity of grassland in both climates, particularly in the hot-dry environment. The cities with high relative humidity would restrict the cooling effect of UGV. Increasing wind speed would significantly enhance the tree-covered while weakening the grass-covered UGVs' cooling effect in MC cities. We also identified that, in order to achieve the most effective cooling with the smallest sized tree-covered UGV, the area of trees in both climate zones' cities should generally be planned around 0.5 ha. The method and results enhance understanding of the cooling effect of UGVs on larger (climate) scales and provide important insights for UGV planning and management.

Accurate Radiometry from Space: An Essential Tool for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, Nigel; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Thome, Kurtis; Young, Dave; Wielicki, Bruce; Winkler, Rainer; Woolliams, Emma

2011-01-01

The Earth s climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a primary standard and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a metrology laboratory in space . Keywords: climate change; Earth observation; satellites; radiometry; solar irradiance

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Risk Communication: The Role of the South Carolina State Climatology Office.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, David J.; Purvis, John C.; Felts, Arthur

1995-12-01

The federally supported state climatologist program ended in 1972. Thereafter, most states supported these endeavors in coordination with the National Climatic Data Center, but the current state programs vary widely. One of the functions of state climate programs that evolved since 1972 is acting as a liaison between the National Weather Service and various state agencies. This role is most apparent and controversial in coordinating state and local government response to severe weather and extreme climate anomalies such as drought, flood, winter storms, and tropical cyclones. The activities of the climate office in South Carolina during Hurricane Hugo in September 1989 and the October 1990 floods reveal how these interactions occur in one state that mandated these activities. The state climate office had to react to shifting weather conditions and to variable political conditions that affect public organizations. The climate office in South Carolina acts to interpret weather information, develop scenarios and predictions, and to assist in postevent damage surveys. This review is presented to acknowledge and document the expanding role of the state climate office in South Carolina in response to state and local government needs for weather forecast interpretation and expert guidance in the event of severe weather.

Cluster analysis of Southeastern U.S. climate stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, D. E.; Michaels, P. J.

1991-09-01

A two-step cluster analysis of 449 Southeastern climate stations is used to objectively determine general climate clusters (groups of climate stations) for eight southeastern states. The purpose is objectively to define regions of climatic homogeneity that should perform more robustly in subsequent climatic impact models. This type of analysis has been successfully used in many related climate research problems including the determination of corn/climate districts in Iowa (Ortiz-Valdez, 1985) and the classification of synoptic climate types (Davis, 1988). These general climate clusters may be more appropriate for climate research than the standard climate divisions (CD) groupings of climate stations, which are modifications of the agro-economic United States Department of Agriculture crop reporting districts. Unlike the CD's, these objectively determined climate clusters are not restricted by state borders and thus have reduced multicollinearity which makes them more appropriate for the study of the impact of climate and climatic change.

Measuring School Climate: An Overview of Measurement Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohl, Diane; Recchia, Sophie; Steffgen, Georges

2013-01-01

Background: School climate is a heterogeneous concept with a multitude of standardised and validated instruments available to measure it. Purpose: This overview of measurement scales aims to provide researchers with short summaries of some of the self-report instruments in existence, especially in relation to the link between school climate and…

Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014, El Niño Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrat...

Climate Action Benefits: Infrastructure

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between infrastructure and climate change and describes what the CIRA Infrastructure analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Bridges, Roads, Urban Drainage, and Coastal Property.

A spatiotemporal analysis of U.S. station temperature trends over the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capparelli, V.; Franzke, C.; Vecchio, A.; Freeman, M. P.; Watkins, N. W.; Carbone, V.

2013-07-01

This study presents a nonlinear spatiotemporal analysis of 1167 station temperature records from the United States Historical Climatology Network covering the period from 1898 through 2008. We use the empirical mode decomposition method to extract the generally nonlinear trends of each station. The statistical significance of each trend is assessed against three null models of the background climate variability, represented by stochastic processes of increasing temporal correlation length. We find strong evidence that more than 50% of all stations experienced a significant trend over the last century with respect to all three null models. A spatiotemporal analysis reveals a significant cooling trend in the South-East and significant warming trends in the rest of the contiguous U.S. It also shows that the warming trend appears to have migrated equatorward. This shows the complex spatiotemporal evolution of climate change at local scales.

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada.

PubMed

Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

2017-02-01

Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late-successional conifers to early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age-dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age-dependent succession, the relative abundances of early-successional deciduous broadleaves and early-successional conifers have increased at the expense of late-successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO 2 promoted early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early-successional conifers at the expense of late-successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO 2 and warming will continue in the 21st century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

2009-07-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all models between ENSO asymmetry (as measured by skewness or nonlinear advection) and changes in mean state, they exhibit a variety of behaviour with regard to α-stability. This suggests that the dynamics associated with climate shifts and the occurrence of extreme events involve higher-order statistical moments that cannot be accounted for solely by nonlinear advection.

The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

accurately assess the current state of the climate and attempt to project into the future, we must have a thorough understanding of the long-term...mean (LTM) conditions in the region of interest. Once we understand the LTM, we can compare the current state of the climate system to the LTM, as...climate analysis and forecasting. 3 Climate analysis, in broad terms, is diagnosing the current state of the climate system and noting departures from

ASK Florida; a climate change education professional development program for middle school teachers in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, R. R.

2012-12-01

A series of professional development workshops covering the fundamentals of climate change have been developed and facilitated for two groups of middle school science teachers in three Florida counties. The NASA-supported joint venture between Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and the University of South Florida's (USF's) Coalition for Science Literacy, ASK Florida, focuses on expanding and deepening teachers' content knowledge of a wide range of climate change topics, connecting local and regional changes to the global picture, and supporting classroom implementation and effective teaching practices. Education experts from USF, climate scientists from COAPS, and Hillsborough county teachers and science coaches coordinated and developed the workshop content, which is based on Florida's Next Generation Sunshine State Standards in science, science curriculum guides for 6th grade, and teacher interest. Several scientists have facilitated activities during the workshop, including professors in meteorology and climatology, research scientists in the field, a NOAA program manager, the state climatologists for Florida, and others. Having these climate scientists present during the workshop provides teachers an opportunity to interact directly with the scientists and gain insight into the climatology field. Additionally, we host an open-forum discussion panel during which teachers can ask the experts about any topics of interest. Activities are designed to enhance the scientific skill level of the teachers. Introductory activities reinforce teachers' abilities to distinguish facts from opinions and to evaluate sources. Other activities provide hands-on experience using actual scientific data from NASA and other agencies. For example, teachers analyze precipitation data to create distributions of Florida rainfall, examine sea level trends at various locations, identify Atlantic hurricane frequencies during the phases of ENSO, and create maps of climate data available on the MYNASADATA web portal. The human aspect of climate change is addressed by discussing anthropological influences such as land use changes. In addition, we examine scientific and public use and interpretation of climate models, scenarios, and projections, and explore adaptation and mitigation strategies for Florida-specific climate projections. Pedagogy is incorporated throughout the workshops to demonstrate how the content and activities can be adapted for their students. Furthermore, we support educators in overcoming obstacles associated with teaching global and regional climate change. This program targets teachers from Title-I schools because students from these schools are typically underrepresented in the STEM fields. Additionally, classroom technology is often limited; therefore, it is important to adapt resources so they can be used in the classroom with or without computers. Activities are presented through an inquiry-based format to encourage knowledge acquisition and discovery similar to that occurring in the actual scientific field. Finally, we prepare teachers to address apathetic or antiscientific sentiments their students may have about climate change by identifying the background issues and ideology and developing strategies to make the content more relevant to their students' lives.

Undergraduates study climate change science, philosophy, and public policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, Mark A.; Frodeman, Robert L.

The National Science Foundation's (NSF) Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program provides undergraduate students with the opportunity to participate in ongoing scientific research. Existing either as stand-alone summer programs or as supplementary components to existing NSF research grants, the REU program focuses on introducing aspiring young scientists to the delights and complexities of science. Global Climate Change and Society (GCCS) is an intensive, 8-week REU program that began a 3-year run in the summer of 2001.Developed by a philosopher at the Colorado School of Mines, and a planetary scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colrado, GCCS is a unique experiment in research and pedagogy that introduces students to science by using a distinctive approach. Choosing as its topic the questions surrounding global climate change, the program explores the interwoven scientific, philosophical, and public policy issues that make the climate change debate such a volatile topic in contemporary society. Last summer, the program selected 12 undergraduates through a nationally advertised competition. Student interns came from diverse academic and cultural backgrounds and included physics, philosophy and public policy majors from elite liberal arts schools, major research institutions, and mainstream state universities. The program was held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in Boulder, Colorado (Figure 1).

Climate Action Benefits: Ecosystems

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between ecosystems and climate change and describes what the CIRA Ecosystems analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Coral Reefs, Shellfish, Freshwater Fish, Wildfire, and Carbon Storage.

Climate Action Benefits: Health

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between human health and climate change and describes what the CIRA Health analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Air Quality, Extreme Temperature, Labor, and Water Quality.

Climate Action Benefits: Water Resources

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between water resources and climate change and describes what the CIRA Water Resources analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Inland Flooding, Drought, and Supply and Demand.

Characteristics of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation simulation in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, K.; Naoe, H.

2016-12-01

Whether climate models drive Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) appropriately is important to assess QBO impact on climate change such as global warming and solar related variation. However, there were few models generating QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This study focuses on dynamical structure of the QBO and its sensitivity to background wind pattern and model configuration. We present preliminary results of experiments designed by "Towards Improving the QBO in Global Climate Models (QBOi)", which is derived from the Stratosphere-troposphere processes and their role in climate (SPARC), in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model, MRI-ESM2. The simulations were performed in present-day climate condition, repeated annual cycle condition with various CO2 level and sea surface temperatures, and QBO hindcast. In the present climate simulation, zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere generally exhibits realistic behavior of the QBO. Equatorial zonal wind variability associated with QBO is overestimated in upper stratosphere and underestimated in lower stratosphere. In the MRI-ESM2, the QBO behavior is mainly driven by gravity wave drag parametrization (GWDP) introduced in Hines (1997). Comparing to reanalyses, shortage of resolved wave forcing is found especially in equatorial lower stratosphere. These discrepancies can be attributed to difference in wave forcing, background wind pattern and model configuration. We intend to show results of additional sensitivity experiments to examine how model configuration and background wind pattern affect resolved wave source, wave propagation characteristics, and QBO behavior.

Exploring late Miocene climate stability: constraining background variability using high-resolution benthic δ18O and δ13C records from Site U1338

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drury, A.; John, C. M.; Lee, G.; Shevenell, A.

2012-12-01

The late Miocene (11.61 - 5.33 Ma) was one of the more stable climatic periods of the Cenozoic. Superimposed on this stable background climate, a number of threshold events occurred, including the late Miocene Carbon Isotope Shift (CIS, 7.6-6.6 Ma) and the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.96-5.33 Ma). The goal of our study is to constrain the background climate cyclicity during the late Miocene. A better knowledge of the background cyclicity in the Earth's climate system is required to advance understanding of, and to successfully model, climate variability. Improving understanding of how changes in background climate variability affect important parameters and fluxes, such as ice volume and the carbon pump, is crucial for explaining the occurrence of threshold events such as the CIS and MSC during an otherwise climatically stable period. The study site is located in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (IODP Site U1338, Expedition 321). U1338 was chosen, as the equatorial Pacific is an important component of the global climate system, representing half of the total tropical ocean and a quarter of the global ocean. We present δ18O and δ13C records from 3.5 to 8.5 Ma using the benthic foraminiferal species Cibicidoides mundulus, with a resolution of 3-4 kyr, which resolves all Milankovitch scale cycles. We present a revised shipboard age model, generated from new biostratigraphic age constraints based on planktic foraminiferal datums. Benthic δ18O records at IODP Site U1338 reflect the stable nature of the late Miocene climate accurately, with long-term trends showing low-amplitude (0.2‰) variations. Superimposed on this are higher-amplitude short-term fluctuations (0.3-0.4‰). Deep-sea benthic foraminferal δ18O records both temperature and the δ18O composition of global deep seawater (δ18Odsw). δ18Odsw largely reflects glacio-eustatic change. Our benthic δ18O implies that long-term trends in ice volume were minimal during the late Miocene. However, the short-term variations imply that some significant sea level fluctuations occurred. The benthic δ13C long-term trend varies by ~0.75‰. The late Miocene CIS is visible as a ~1.25‰ excursion. Short-term fluctuations in δ13C record are slightly lower amplitude (~0.50‰). Preliminary spectral analysis highlights the strength of the eccentricity forcing (400 and 100-kyr cycles) in both the δ18O and δ13C records. The 41-kyr obliquity cycles are also visible in the δ18O records. The benthic δ13C records are combined with preliminary low-resolution δ13C records measured on the planktic foraminiferal species Globigerinoides sacculifer from the same samples. Co-varying benthic-planktic δ13C is driven by changes in the ocean reservoir δ13C, whereas con/diverging benthic-planktic δ13C is related to changes in surface productivity. This initial comparison may shed some light on the forcing of the CIS, and the implications for late Miocene climate. Future work will combine benthic δ18O with independent temperature proxies, such as Mg/Ca and clumped isotopes, to isolate the δ18Odsw signal and make more robust inferences about the background cryosphere dynamics during this time. We will also increase the resolution of the planktic foraminiferal records to enable comparison of the dominant forcing in the benthic and planktic records.

Academic Social Climate--A Key Aspect in Architectural Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidovitch, Nitza; Casakin, Hernan

2015-01-01

The present research investigates academic social climate in architectural studies as perceived by students. It studies the importance that the various measures of academic social climate have in the studio and in architectural classes. It also investigates the relation between the personal background of students and their sense of academic social…

Understanding Climate Change Perceptions, Attitudes, and Needs of Forest Service Resource Managers

Treesearch

Carlos Rodriguez-Franco; Tara J. Haan

2015-01-01

Surveys were collected to assess Forest Service (FS) resource managers' perceptions, attitudes, and informational needs related to climate change and its potential impacts on forests and grasslands. Resource managers with three background types were surveyed. All participants generally considered themselves to be well-informed on climate change issues, although...

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

PubMed Central

González, Camila; Wang, Ophelia; Strutz, Stavana E.; González-Salazar, Constantino; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Sarkar, Sahotra

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. Methods and Findings The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. Conclusions These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies—besides direct intervention in disease cases—should also be further investigated. PMID:20098495

Interactive Development of Regional Climate Web Pages for the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oakley, N.; Redmond, K. T.

2013-12-01

Weather and climate have a pervasive and significant influence on the western United States, driving a demand for information that is ongoing and constantly increasing. In communications with stakeholders, policy makers, researchers, educators, and the public through formal and informal encounters, three standout challenges face users of weather and climate information in the West. First, the needed information is scattered about the web making it difficult or tedious to access. Second, information is too complex or requires too much background knowledge to be immediately applicable. Third, due to complex terrain, there is high spatial variability in weather, climate, and their associated impacts in the West, warranting information outlets with a region-specific focus. Two web sites, TahoeClim and the Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard were developed to overcome these challenges to meeting regional weather and climate information needs. TahoeClim focuses on the Lake Tahoe Basin, a region of critical environmental concern spanning the border of Nevada and California. TahoeClim arose out of the need for researchers, policy makers, and environmental organizations to have access to all available weather and climate information in one place. Additionally, TahoeClim developed tools to both interpret and visualize data for the Tahoe Basin with supporting instructional material. The Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard arose from discussions at an informal meeting about Nevada drought organized by the USDA Farm Service Agency. Stakeholders at this meeting expressed a need to take a 'quick glance' at various climate indicators to support their decision making process. Both sites were designed to provide 'one-stop shopping' for weather and climate information in their respective regions and to be intuitive and usable by a diverse audience. An interactive, 'co-development' approach was taken with sites to ensure needs of potential users were met. The sites were presented in meetings of target user groups at several stages of development. Feedback was collected by observing people as they used the sites to complete a task as well as through surveys and informal discussion. The resultant web products meet the needs of the target audience and give them a sense of ownership, making them more inclined to utilize the sites. Even with Western Regional Climate Center's considerable experience in the provision of climate services, this proved to be a very fruitful exercise in how to better serve our clientele and revealed opportunities for improving our products. The lessons learned from this 'co-development' process about how people search for, use, and perceive weather and climate data in the West provide valuable insight for others wishing to create an online tool to supply this type of information.

Considerations for forest adaptation to climate change in sustainable production of wood/fiber/biomass and ecosystem services

Treesearch

Roger A. Sedjo

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect forests into the future. Although forests have an inherent resiliency that allows them to adapt to various disturbances, including past climate change, concerns are expressed that the rate of change of current and future climate may be more rapid than the ability of many forests to adapt. This paper examines the background of forest...

The Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Low Cloud Properties and Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

The Arctic is one of the most climatically sensitive regions of the Earth. Climate models robustly project the Arctic to warm 2-3 times faster than the global mean surface temperature, termed polar warming amplification (PWA), but also display the widest range of surface temperature projections in this region. The response of the Arctic to increased CO2 modulates the response in tropical and extra-tropical regions through teleconnections in the atmospheric circulation. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the northern mid-latitudes, for example, has been linked to the change in the background equator-to-pole temperature gradient implied by PWA. Understanding the Arctic climate system is therefore important for predicting global climate change. The ice albedo feedback is the primary mechanism driving PWA, however cloud and dynamical feedbacks significantly contribute. These feedback mechanisms, however, do not operate independently. How do clouds respond to variations in sea ice? This critical question is addressed by combining sea ice, cloud, and radiation observations from satellites, including CERES, CloudSAT, CALIPSO, MODIS, and microwave radiometers, to investigate sea ice-cloud interactions at the interannual timescale in the Arctic. Cloud characteristics are strongly tied to the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state. Therefore, the sensitivity of Arctic cloud characteristics, vertical distribution and optical properties, to sea ice anomalies is computed within atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic regimes. Results indicate that the cloud response to changes in sea ice concentration differs significantly between atmospheric state regimes. This suggests that (1) the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics and (2) the characteristics of the marginal ice zone are important for determining the seasonal forcing by cloud on sea ice variability.

Climate Action Benefits: Agriculture and Forestry

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between agriculture, forestry, and climate change and describes what the CIRA Agriculture and Forestry analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Crop and Forest Yields and Market Impacts.

AMS Climate Studies: Improving climate literacy through undergraduate education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; Kiley, T. P., Jr.; Ruwe, E. E.

2009-12-01

In working to promote scientific literacy among the public, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has produced a suite of introductory college-level courses that engage students by investigating relevant topics in Earth science, and utilizing the most current, real-world environmental data. The newest of these courses, AMS Climate Studies, is a turnkey package which will be licensed by individual colleges for local offering in online, blended, or traditional lecture/lab settings. The course will place students in a dynamic learning environment where they will investigate Earth’s climate system using real-world data. This will allow the course to keep a strong focus on the science, while still addressing many of the societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. In this way, the course will serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate participants in discussions of climate science and climate change. Developed with major support from NASA, AMS Climate Studies will encourage students to investigate the atmosphere and world ocean as components of a larger Earth system. More than 500 colleges and universities throughout the United States have already offered AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies, after which AMS Climate Studies will be modeled. The learning system will consist of a fully-integrated set of printed and online learning materials focused around a brand new, hardcover 15-chapter textbook, Climate Studies: Introduction to Climate Science and an Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities that will emphasize the use of authentic science data. The package will also include a course website providing weekly Current Climate Studies activities along with access to environmental data streams, including an impressive suite of NASA and NOAA images and products. The development and testing of AMS Climate Studies is currently nearing completion. A number of college and university professors have been selected to pilot the program in Spring 2010, with major emphasis placed on representing a diverse array of institution types, degree programs, course delivery methods, academic backgrounds, etc. The materials will be vigorously tested and updated accordingly. AMS Climate Studies will be available for implementation at your institution beginning Fall 2010.

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

PubMed

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can the biomass-ratio hypothesis predict mixed-species litter decomposition along a climatic gradient?

PubMed Central

Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill; Bloor, Juliette M. G.; Soussana, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The biomass-ratio hypothesis states that ecosystem properties are driven by the characteristics of dominant species in the community. In this study, the hypothesis was operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs) of monoculture values and tested for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures along an abiotic gradient in the field. Methods Decomposition rates (mg g−1 d−1) of litter from four herb species were measured using litter-bed experiments with the same soil at three sites in central France along a correlated climatic gradient of temperature and precipitation. All possible combinations from one to four species mixtures were tested over 28 weeks of incubation. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the biomass-ratio hypothesis. Variability of the prediction errors was compared with the species richness of the mixtures, across sites, and within sites over time. Key Results Both positive and negative prediction errors occurred. Despite this, the biomass-ratio hypothesis was true as an average claim for all sites (r = 0·91) and for each site separately, except for the climatically intermediate site, which showed mainly synergistic deviations. Variability decreased with increasing species richness and in less favourable climatic conditions for decomposition. Conclusions Community-weighted mean values provided good predictions of mixed-species litter decomposition, converging to the predicted values with increasing species richness and in climates less favourable to decomposition. Under a context of climate change, abiotic variability would be important to take into account when predicting ecosystem processes. PMID:24482152

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

2018-05-01

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together with the other parts of the rOPS processing chain this part is thus ready to provide integrated uncertainty propagation through the whole RO retrieval chain for the benefit of climate monitoring and other applications.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boville, B. A.; Garcia, R. R.; Sassi, F.; Kinnison, D.; Roble, R. G.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is an upward exten- sion of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model. WACCM simulates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere (140 km) and includes both dynamical and chemical components. The salient points of the model formulation will be summarized and several aspects of its performance will be discussed. Comparison with observations indicates that WACCM produces re- alistic temperature and zonal wind distributions. Both the mean state and interannual variability will be summarized. Temperature inversions in the midlatitude mesosphere have been reported by several authors and are also found in WACCM. These inver- sions are formed primarily by planetary wave forcing, but the background state on which they form also requires gravity wave forcing. The response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies will be examined by com- paring simulations with observed SSTs for 1950-1998 to a simulation with clima- tological annual cycle of SSTs. The response to ENSO events is found to extend though the winter stratosphere and mesosphere and a signal is also found at the sum- mer mesopause. The experimental framework allows the ENSO signal to be isolated, because no other forcings are included (e.g. solar variability and volcanic eruptions) which complicate the observational record. The temperature and wind variations asso- ciated with ENSO are large enough to generate significant perturbations in the chem- ical composition of the middle atmosphere, which will also be discussed.

Refining the COPES to Measure Social Climate in Therapeutic Residential Youth Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leipoldt, Jonathan D.; Kayed, Nanna S.; Harder, Annemiek T.; Grietens, Hans; Rimehaug, Tormod

2018-01-01

Background: Previous studies have shown that social climate in therapeutic residential youth care (TRC) is important to the welfare of residents, staff, and assessing treatment outcomes. The most influential theory on social climate in residential settings is the theory of Moos. The measurement of the concepts and aspects of this theory using the…

Measuring School Climate in High Schools: A Focus on Safety, Engagement, and the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Waasdorp, Tracy E.; Debnam, Katrina J.; Johnson, Sarah Lindstrom

2014-01-01

Background: School climate has been linked to multiple student behavioral, academic, health, and social-emotional outcomes. The US Department of Education (USDOE) developed a 3-factor model of school climate comprised of safety, engagement, and environment. This article examines the factor structure and measurement invariance of the USDOE model.…

Relationships among Student, Staff, and Administrative Measures of School Climate and Student Health and Academic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gase, Lauren N.; Gomez, Louis M.; Kuo, Tony; Glenn, Beth A.; Inkelas, Moira; Ponce, Ninez A.

2017-01-01

Background: School climate is an integral part of a comprehensive approach to improving the well-being of students; however, little is known about the relationships between its different domains and measures. We examined the relationships between student, staff, and administrative measures of school climate to understand the extent to which they…

Perceived School Climate and Chinese Adolescents' Suicidal Ideation and Suicide Attempts: The Mediating Role of Sleep Quality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Dongping; Bao, Zhenzhou; Li, Xian; Wang, Yanhui

2016-01-01

Background: School factors play important roles in adolescent suicide. However, little is known about how school climate is associated with adolescent suicide. This study examined the relationship between perceived school climate and adolescent suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, and whether these relations were explained by adolescent sleep…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sathaye, Jayant A.; Price, Lynn; Kumar, Satish

Development and poverty eradication are urgent andoverriding goals internationally. The World Summit on SustainableDevelopment made clear the need for increased access to affordable,reliable and cleaner energy and the international community agreed in theDelhi Declaration on Climate Change and Sustainable Development on theimportance of the development agenda in considering any climate changeapproach. To this end, six countries (Australia, China, India, Japan,Republic of Korea and the United States) have come together to form theAsia Pacific Partnership in accordance with their respective nationalcircumstances, to develop, deploy and transfer cleaner, more efficienttechnologies and to meet national pollution reduction, energy securityand climate change concerns consistentmore » with the principles of the U.N.Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The APP builds on thefoundation of existing bilateral and multilateral initiativescomplements.APP has established eight public-private sector Task Forcescovering: (1) cleaner fossil energy; (2) renewable energy and distributedgeneration; (3) power generation and transmission; (4) steel; (5)aluminium; (6) cement; (7) coal mining; and (8) buildings and appliances.As a priority, each Task Force will formulate detailed action plansoutlining both immediate and medium-term specific actions, includingpossible "flagship" projects and relevant indicators of progress by 31August 2006. The partnership will help the partners build human andinstitutional capacity to strengthen cooperative efforts, and will seekopportunities to engage the private sector. The APP organized An OutreachWorkshop: Business&Technology Cooperation Opportunities forIndustry on August 26, 2006, New Delhi. This paper was prepared toprovide background information for participants of the Conference. Ithighlights energy efficiency, renewable energy, and climate technologies,barriers, and partnerships that are being implemented in the US, Indiaand other selected countries. The paper discusses the lessons to belearned from these partnerships, and ways by which the APP could fostercooperation between India and the other member countries. It highlightsthe types of technologies that Indian public sector and private industrycould access from US national laboratories and also be able to leveragecurrent and planned USAID/India activities. The paper builds on anearlier background paper that was prepared for the US-India EnergyDialogue Working Group on Energy Efficiency.« less

Climate state: Science-state struggles and the formation of climate science in the US from the 1930s to 1960s.

PubMed

Baker, Zeke

2017-12-01

This article has two aims: first, to understand the co-production of climate science and the state, and second, to provide a test case for Pierre Bourdieu's field theory. To these ends, the article reconstructs the historical formation of a US climate science field, with an analytic focus on inter-field dynamics and heterogeneous networking practices. Drawing from primary- and secondary-source materials, the historical analysis focuses on relations between scientists and state actors from the 1930s to the 1960s. The account shows how actors with positions linking scientific and bureaucratic fields constructed critical nodes and 'hinges' that co-produced war-making and state expansion on the one hand, and a relatively autonomous climate science field on the other. The analysis explains the emergence of climate science by focusing on the WWII-era transformation of meteorology and oceanography into distinct disciplines, the emergence of 'basic' research as a central principle of post-war government, and the formation of a climate science field by the 1960s centered on computerized modeling and populated by an interdisciplinary scientific elite. The article concludes by indicating how these processes led to the subsequent development of climate change as a science-state conundrum that has reorganized the climate science field in recent decades.

Perception of climate change in patients with chronic lung disease

PubMed Central

Götschke, Jeremias; Mertsch, Pontus; Bischof, Michael; Kneidinger, Nikolaus; Matthes, Sandhya; Renner, Ellen D.; Schultz, Konrad; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Duchna, Hans-Werner; Behr, Jürgen; Schmude, Jürgen; Huber, Rudolf M.

2017-01-01

Background Climate change affects human health. The respective consequences are predicted to increase in the future. Patients with chronic lung disease are particularly vulnerable to the involved environmental alterations. However, their subjective perception and reactions to these alterations remain unknown. Methods In this pilot study, we surveyed 172 adult patients who underwent pulmonary rehabilitation and 832 adult tourists without lung disease in the alpine region about their perception of being affected by climate change and their potential reaction to specific consequences. The patients’ survey also contained the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) to rate the severity of symptoms. Results Most of the patients stated asthma (73.8%), COPD (9.3%) or both (11.0%) as underlying disease while 5.8% suffered from other chronic lung diseases. Patients and tourists feel equally affected by current climate change in general, while allergic subjects in both groups feel significantly more affected (p = 0.04). The severity of symptoms assessed by CAT correlates with the degree of feeling affected (p<0.01). The main disturbing consequences for patients are decreased air quality, increasing numbers of ticks and mosquitos and a rising risk for allergy and extreme weather events such as thunderstroms, while tourists are less disturbed by these factors. Increasing number of heat-days is of little concern to both groups. Conclusion Overall patients are more sensitive to health-related consequences of climate change. Yet, the hazard of heat-days seems underestimated and awareness should be raised. PMID:29045479

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

Science.gov Websites

Data North American Monsoon Experiment United States Climate Data & Graphics ENSO Impacts on the United States Previous ENSO Events El Niño Impacts on United States Climate El Niño Impacts State by State La Niña Impacts by Region El Niño's Influence on United States Precipitation Amounts El Niño

Seasonal Variations in Mortality, Clinical, and Laboratory Parameters in Hemodialysis Patients: A 5-Year Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Usvyat, Len A.; Carter, Mary; Thijssen, Stephan; Kooman, Jeroen P.; van der Sande, Frank M.; Zabetakis, Paul; Balter, Paul; Levin, Nathan W.; Kotanko, Peter

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Mortality varies seasonally in the general population, but it is unknown whether this phenomenon is also present in hemodialysis patients with known higher background mortality and emphasis on cardiovascular causes of death. This study aimed to assess seasonal variations in mortality, in relation to clinical and laboratory variables in a large cohort of chronic hemodialysis patients over a 5-year period. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study included 15,056 patients of 51 Renal Research Institute clinics from six states of varying climates in the United States. Seasonal differences were assessed by chi-squared tests and univariate and multivariate cosinor analyses. Results Mortality, both all-cause and cardiovascular, was significantly higher during winter compared with other seasons (14.2 deaths per 100 patient-years in winter, 13.1 in spring, 12.3 in autumn, and 11.9 in summer). The increase in mortality in winter was more pronounced in younger patients, as well as in whites and in men. Seasonal variations were similar across climatologically different regions. Seasonal variations were also observed in neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and serum calcium, potassium, and platelet values. Differences in mortality disappeared when adjusted for seasonally variable clinical parameters. Conclusions In a large cohort of dialysis patients, significant seasonal variations in overall and cardiovascular mortality were observed, which were consistent over different climatic regions. Other physiologic and laboratory parameters were also seasonally different. Results showed that mortality differences were related to seasonality of physiologic and laboratory parameters. Seasonal variations should be taken into account when designing and interpreting longitudinal studies in dialysis patients. PMID:22096041

Climate Impacts Already Affect Every Region of the United States, Report Warns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2014-05-01

"Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," according to the third iteration of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), issued by the White House on 6 May. "The observed warming and other climatic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and throughout our economy," states the report, titled Climate Change Impacts in the United States, issued through the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2011-06-01

Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as well as Northeast South America. However, our model did not agree well with predicted biome distributions in Eastern South America.

The effects of motivational climate interventions on psychobiosocial States in high school physical education.

PubMed

Bortoli, Laura; Bertollo, Maurizio; Vitali, Francesca; Filho, Edson; Robazza, Claudio

2015-06-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of task- and ego-involving climate manipulations on students' climate perception and psychobiosocial (PBS) states in a physical education setting. Two subsamples of female students (N = 108, 14-15 years of age) participated in 12 lessons on either a task- or an ego-involving climate intervention as grounded in the TARGET (tasks, authority, recognition, grouping, evaluation, and time) model. At the end of the treatment, the participants of the ego-involved group reported lower scores in the perceived task-involving climate and higher scores in the perceived ego-involving climate compared with their peers in the task-involved group. Lower scores in pleasant/functional PBS states and higher scores in unpleasant/dysfunctional PBS states were also observed in the ego-involved group as a consequence of the intervention. Findings suggested that teachers' induced achievement motivational climates can influence students' perceptions and prompt PBS states consistent with the motivational atmosphere.

Engagement Between Decision Makers and the Research Community in Califonria'a Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedsworth, L. W.; Franco, G.; Wilhelm, S.; DeLaRosa, J.

2016-12-01

The State of California has been supporting the development of regional climate change science for more than two decades. The engagement between the scientific community in California and State agencies has been strong, and supported by multiple formalized relationships. For example, research results have informed state climate policy formulation such as the passage of AB32, a law that requires the State to bring GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and three Bills on climate adaptation that became law late in 2015. Scientific research has also been used for long-term planning of state resources such as the Forestry Plan, the Water Plan, and the Integrated Energy Policy Report. The Climate Action Team Research Working Group meets monthly to coordinate climate-related research activities supported by more than 20 state agencies and is the steering committee for the next California Climate Assessment that will be released in 2018. The State is co-producing the research commissioned for the 2018 Assessment in various ways, including the identification of research projects, the integration of more than 50 research studies, and active participation during execution of the research. The presentation will discuss the State's successes in linking decision-makers and the scientific community as well as challenges and potential ways to enhance these linkages.

Challenges in Identifying Sites Climatically Matched to the Native Ranges of Animal Invaders

PubMed Central

Rodda, Gordon H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Reed, Robert N.

2011-01-01

Background Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk. PMID:21347411

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, G.H.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Reed, R.N.

2011-01-01

Background: Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings: Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance: When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

Playing Fair: The Contribution of High-Functioning Recess to Overall School Climate in Low-Income Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

London, Rebecca A.; Westrich, Lisa; Stokes-Guinan, Katie; McLaughlin, Milbrey

2015-01-01

Background: Recess is a part of the elementary school day with strong implications for school climate. Positive school climate has been linked to a host of favorable student outcomes, from attendance to achievement. We examine 6 low-income elementary schools' experiences implementing a recess-based program designed to provide safe, healthy,…

A climate adaptation strategy for conservation and management of yellowcedar in Alaska

Treesearch

Paul E. Hennon; Carol M. McKenzie; David D' Amore; Dustin T. Wittwer; Robin L. Mulvey; Melinda S. Lamb; Frances E. Biles; Rich C. Cronn

2016-01-01

A conservation and management strategy for yellow-cedar in Alaska is presented in the context of climate change. This document has four sections. Section 1 covers the ecology and silvics of yellow-cedar, as well as other background information. Section 2 outlines knowledge on the extensive mortality to yellow-cedar, including the role of climate. Section 3 describes...

Psychometric Support of the School Climate Measure in a Large, Diverse Sample of Adolescents: A Replication and Extension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zullig, Keith J.; Collins, Rani; Ghani, Nadia; Patton, Jon M.; Huebner, E. Scott; Ajamie, Jean

2014-01-01

Background: The School Climate Measure (SCM) was developed and validated in 2010 in response to a dearth of psychometrically sound school climate instruments. This study sought to further validate the SCM on a large, diverse sample of Arizona public school adolescents (N = 20,953). Methods: Four SCM domains (positive student-teacher relationships,…

Bird banding and climate change: can we make a difference?

Treesearch

C. John Ralph; Jared D. Wolfe

2014-01-01

So how does your banding effort fit into the new paradigm of climate science? A little background: many bird populations underwent mass declines during the 19th century from a variety of causes including hunting and habitat change. Current human-induced climate change represents a new and fast-acting pressure that is inherently more difficult to curtail and may drive...

Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report reviews available literature on climate change effects on aquatic invasive species (AIS) and examines state level AIS management activities. This draft report assesses the state of the science of climate change effects on AIS and examines state level AIS management activities.

Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.

PubMed

Grossman, Elena; Hathaway, Michelle; Bush, Kathleen F; Cahillane, Matthew; English, Dorette Q; Holmes, Tisha; Moran, Colleen E; Uejio, Christopher K; York, Emily A; Dorevitch, Samuel

2018-06-20

Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives. To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered. Cross-sectional survey and discussion. State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience. The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs. Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support. Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.

Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) issues in dental school environments: dental student leaders' perceptions.

PubMed

Anderson, Joan I; Patterson, April N; Temple, Henry J; Inglehart, Marita Rohr

2009-01-01

The objectives of the study reported in this article were to assess dental student leaders' perceptions of educational efforts concerning lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) topics and the cultural climate concerning LGBT issues in dental schools in the United States and Canada. In addition, the perceptions of student leaders who self-identified as belonging to the LGBT community and of students with a heterosexual orientation were compared. Data were collected from 113 dental student leaders from twenty-seven dental schools in the United States and three in Canada. Fifty student leaders were females, and sixty-two were males. Only 13.3 percent of the respondents agreed that their dental education prepared them well to treat patients from LGBT backgrounds. The more the student leaders believed that their university has an honest interest in diversity, the better they felt prepared by their dental school program to treat patients from LGBT backgrounds (r=.327; p<.001). The better they felt prepared, the more they perceived the clinic environment as sensitive and affirming for patients with different sexual orientations (r=.464; p<.001). The more they reported that dental schools' administrations create a positive environment for students with LGBT orientations, the more they agreed that persons can feel comfortable regardless of their sexual orientation (r=.585; p<.001). In conclusion, the findings indicate that dental school administrators play an important role in ensuring that future care providers are well prepared to treat patients from LGBT backgrounds and that staff, faculty, students, and patients from these backgrounds are not discriminated against.

Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Lauren; Schmidt, Anja; Toohey, Matthew; Carslaw, Ken S.; Mann, Graham W.; Sigl, Michael; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Zanchettin, Davide; Ball, William T.; Bekki, Slimane; Brooke, James S. A.; Dhomse, Sandip; Johnson, Colin; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Mills, Michael J.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Pope, James O.; Poulain, Virginie; Robock, Alan; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Tilmes, Simone; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Tummon, Fiona

2018-02-01

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 year without a summer, and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kg km-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kg km-2, as compared to the mean ice-core-derived estimates of roughly 50 kg km-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.

PubMed

Eidson, Millicent; Clancy, Kathleen A; Birkhead, Guthrie S

2016-01-01

Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities. To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback. With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities. New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders. In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P < .0001) LHDs (22.9%) were incorporating or considering incorporating climate and health into planning compared to state health leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development. Feedback from diverse stakeholders was utilized by NYSDOH to develop its Climate and Health Strategic Map in 2013. The CDC Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework and funding provides a collaborative model for state climate and health adaptation planning.

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-modelmore » ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms,more » were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.« less

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Mei, Rui; Kabela, Erik D.; Gangrade, Sudershan; Naz, Bibi S.; Preston, Benjamin L.; Singh, Nagendra; Anantharaj, Valentine G.

2017-05-01

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserve more in-depth examination.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

PubMed Central

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-01-01

Background With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia’s population. Design Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees. PMID:23899408

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

DOE PAGES

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-04-13

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms,more » were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.« less

Climate change, agriculture and water resources in the Southwestern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In February 2014 the USDA established regional climate hubs across the United States to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. The Southwest (SW) region encompasses six states which provide highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit ...

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape

PubMed Central

Lawler, Joshua J.; McRae, Brad H.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Theobald, David M.

2016-01-01

The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species’ ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates. PMID:27298349

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

McGuire, Jenny L; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Nuñez, Tristan A; Theobald, David M

2016-06-28

The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species' ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates.

Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

2015-03-01

Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

Assessment of 6- to 20-Grade Educators' Climate Knowledge and Perceptions: Results from the Climate Stewardship Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeal, Karen S.; Walker, Scott L.; Rutherford, David

2014-01-01

The southeastern United States (SEUS) faces numerous potential impacts from a changing climate; however, the population has been characterized with a predominance of naysayers and few climate policies have been implemented by state governments in the region. As such, public education is an important avenue for achieving a climate literate…

Perceptions of and Attitudes Toward Climate Change in the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

David Himmelfarb; John Schelhas; Sarah Hitchner; Cassandra Johnson Gaither; KathErine Dunbar; J. Peter Brosius

2014-01-01

Despite a global scientific consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change, the issue remains highly contentious in the United States, stifling public debate and action on the issue. Local perceptions of and attitudes toward climate change-how different groups of people outside of the professional climate science community make sense of changes in climate in...

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climate change in Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; Elaine E. Oneil; Donald McKenzie; Jeffrey A. Hicke; James A. Lutz; Robert A. Norheim; Marketa M. Elsner

2010-01-01

Climatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes across Washington State. First, we relate Douglas-fir growth to climatic limitation and suggest that where Douglas-fir is...

A Framework for Bridging Scientists, Knowledge Brokers and Local Decision Makers in State-level Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galford, G. L.; Nash, J. L.

2016-12-01

Large-scale analyses like the National Climate Assessment (NCA) contain a wealth of information critical to national and regional responses to climate change but tend to be insufficiently detailed for action at state or local levels. Many states now develop assessments (SCAs) to provide relevant, actionable information to state and local authorities. These assessments generate new or additional primary information, build networks and inform stakeholders. Based on our experience in the Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA), we present a SCA framework to engage local decision makers, using a fluid network of scientific experts and knowledge brokers to conduct subject area prioritization, data analysis, and writing. Knowledge brokers bridged the scientific and stakeholder communities, providing a two-way flow of information by capitalizing on their existing networks. Rich citizen records of climate and climate change impacts associated a human voice, a memorable story, or personal observation with a climate record, improving climate information salience. This engagement process that created salient climate information perceived as credible and legitimate by local and state decision makers. We present this framework as an effective structure for SCAs to foster interaction among scientists, knowledge brokers and stakeholders. We include a qualitative impact evaluation and lessons learned for future SCAs.

Some Spatial Aspects of Southeastern United States Climatology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soule, Peter T.

1998-01-01

Focuses on the climatology of an eight-state region in the southern and southeastern United States. Discusses general controls of climate and spatial patterns of various climatic averages. Examines mapped extremes as a means of fostering increased awareness of the variability that exists for climatic conditions in the region. (CMK)

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Bódai, Tamás

2017-07-01

Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system’s response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and—for all practical purposes—irreversible changes in the properties of the system. As is well known, the Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical and astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches to the problem. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and collaborators for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluid dynamical systems, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the climatic edge state, a saddle embedded in the boundary between the two basins of attraction of the stable climates. The edge state attracts initial conditions belonging to such a boundary and, while being defined by the deterministic dynamics, is the gate facilitating noise-induced transitions between competing attractors. We use a simplified yet Earth-like intermediate complexity climate model constructed by coupling a primitive equations model of the atmosphere with a simple diffusive ocean. We refer to the climatic edge states as Melancholia states and provide an extensive analysis of their features. We study their dynamics, their symmetry properties, and we follow a complex set of bifurcations. We find situations where the Melancholia state has chaotic dynamics. In these cases, we have that the basin boundary between the two basins of attraction is a strange geometric set with a nearly zero codimension, and relate this feature to the time scale separation between instabilities occurring on weather and climatic time scales. We also discover a new stable climatic state that is similar to a Melancholia state and is characterized by non-trivial symmetry properties.

Maniac Talk - Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-06-22

Cynthia Rosenzweig Maniac Lecture, June 22, 2016 NASA climate scientist Cynthia Rosenzweig presented a Maniac lecture entitled, "What If and So What? Climate Change and Corn/Wheat/Rice/Soybeans (and a few words on Cities)." Cynthia narrated how her background as agronomist set her on a path to investigate how a change in climate due to increased carbon dioxide would impact food security and how NASA missions and models have been valuable at every step of the way. Cynthia also touched briefly on climate change and cities.

Soils regulate and mitigate climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: The interaction of soil science and ecology can be traced back to the origins of soil science as an independent discipline within the natural sciences. Vasili Dokuchaev, the founder of modern soil science, identified five soil forming factors: parent material, climate, o...

Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on perceived susceptibility to threats and severity of climate change or climate variability impacts, whereas adaptation is largely dependent on the availability of information relevant to climate change. Thus, the climate change discourse could be framed from a health perspective to motivate behaviour change. PMID:21600004

Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

2012-04-01

In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability to be important or very important and to influence their activities. Extreme climate events, desertification and drought were regarded as the most important environmental problems along with loss of biodiversity. Most of the participants answered that they use historical data for research, and would welcome climate data and services targeted to their sector if offered. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010- 265192.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change impacts on the United States vary by region and sector of the economy. Responses to climate change fall into two major categories. Mitigation focuses on the reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases or increasing their uptake to reduce the amount and speed of climate change. Adaptatio...

The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This assessment strengthens and expands our understanding of climate-related health impacts by providing a more definitive description of climate-related health burdens in the United States. It builds on the 2014 USGCRP National Climate Assessment and reviews and synthesizes key ...

The Impacts of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

variability in a region. Climate forecasts are predictions of the future state of the climate , much as we think of weather forecasts but at longer...arrive at accurate characterizations of the future state of the climate . Many of the civilian organizations that generate reanalysis data also

Spring Outlook: Moderate flood risk for drenched Louisiana, east Texas |

Science.gov Websites

Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites Research Marine & Aviation Charting Sanctuaries improve drought in Northern California; little relief for rest of state Weather Climate climate outlooks weather and climate tools that NOAA provides emergency managers, water managers, state and local officials

State Roles in the Global Climate Change Issue.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1995-02-01

Events in 1988 helped focus the attention of several states on the global climate change issue. Consequently, the National Governors' Association conducted an assessment in 1989 and recommended various actions. By 1994, 22 states have enacted laws or regulations and/or established research programs addressing climate change. Most of these "no regrets" actions are set up to conserve energy or improve energy efficiency and also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Illinois has adopted an even broader program by 1) establishing a Global Climate Change Office to foster research and provide information and 2) forming a task force to address a wide array of issues including state input to federal policies such as the Clinton administration's 1993 Climate Change Action Plan and to the research dimensions of the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program. The Illinois program calls for increased attention to studies of regional impacts, including integrated assessments, and to research addressing means to adapt to future climate change. These various state efforts to date help show the direction of policy development and should be useful to those grappling with these issues.

Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society.

PubMed

de Boer, Joop; de Witt, Annick; Aiking, Harry

2016-03-01

This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background factors, including possible spillover effects. Consumer samples in the Netherlands (n = 527) and the United States (n = 556) were asked to evaluate food-related and energy-related mitigation options in a design that included three food-related options with very different mitigation potentials (i.e. eating less meat, buying local and seasonal food, and buying organic food). They rated each option's effectiveness and their willingness to adopt it. The outstanding effectiveness of the less meat option (as established by climate experts) was recognized by merely 12% of the Dutch and 6% of the American sample. Many more participants gave fairly positive effectiveness ratings and this was correlated with belief in human causation of climate change, personal importance of climate change, and being a moderate meat eater. Willingness to adopt the less meat option increased with its perceived effectiveness and, controlling for that, it was significantly related to various motivationally relevant factors. The local food option appealed to consumer segments with overlapping but partly different motivational orientations. It was concluded that a transition to a low carbon society can significantly benefit from a special focus on the food-related options to involve more consumers and to improve mitigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparedness for climate change among local health department officials in New York state: a comparison with national survey results.

PubMed

Carr, Jessie L; Sheffield, Perry E; Kinney, Patrick L

2012-01-01

Climate-change adaptation strategies that address locally specific climate hazards are critical for preventing negative health outcomes, and local public health care officials are key foci for adaptation planning. To assess New York State Local Health Department officials' perceptions and preparedness related to climate-sensitive health areas, and compare these with a national sample. Online survey instrument, originally used in a national survey of local health department (LHD) officials. New York State. Eligible participants included all New York State city and county LHD officials, 1 respondent per LHD. LHD officials' perceptions of (1) local climate-related public health effects, (2) preparation status and programming areas of LHDs, and (3) necessary resources to better address climate-related health risks. : Survey participants, representing a 54% response rate (with 93% of respondents completing more than 90% of the questions), perceived climate change as relevant to public health, and most noted that some of their existing programs already use or are planning to use climate adaptation strategies. Overall, fewer New York State respondents identified concerns or related expertise compared with the previous national survey. Many respondents expressed uncertainty regarding necessary additional resources. This type of assessment makes clear the high variability in perceived impacts and capacity at the level of LHD jurisdictions, and underscores the importance of sustained support for local climate-change preparedness programming. The implications of these findings are germane to other states with similar decentralized jurisdiction of public health. Findings from such surveys can bolster existing LHD programs, as well as inform long-term and emergency planning for climate change.

Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

2015-01-01

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Treesearch

X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

2010-01-01

The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2008-12-01

The impact of climate change on energy demand and use is a significant issue for developing future GHG emission scenarios and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. A number of studies have evaluated the increase in GHG emissions as a result of changes in energy production from fossil fuels, but the consequences of climate change on energy consumption have not been the focus of many studies. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on energy use at a regional scale using the Midwestern USA as a test. The paper presents results of analyzing energy use in response to ambient temperature changes in a 17-year period from 1989 to 2006 and projection of energy use under future climate scenarios (2010-2061). This study consisted of a two-step procedure. In the first step, sensitivity of historic energy demand, specifically electricity and natural gas in residential and commercial sectors (42% of end-use energy), with respect to many climatic and non-climatic variables was examined. State-specific regression models were developed to quantify the relationship between energy use and climatic variables using degree days. We found that model parameters and base temperatures for estimating heating and cooling days varied by state and energy sector, mainly depending on climate conditions, infrastructure, economic factors, and seasonal change in energy use. In the second step, we applied these models to predict future energy demand using output data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the SRES A1B scenario used in the IPCC AR-4. The annual demands of electricity and natural gas were predicted for each state from 2010 to 2061. The model results indicate that the average annual electricity demand will increase 3%-5% for the southern states and 1%-3% for the northern states in the region by 2061 and that the demand for natural gas is expected to be reduced in all states. A seasonal analysis of energy distribution in response to climate variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Treesearch

Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Treesearch

Pankaj Lal; Janaki R.R. Alavalapati; Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (...

Responses of ocean circulation and carbon cycle to changes in the position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Völker, Christoph; Köhler, Peter

2013-01-01

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 μatm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data. PMID:26074663

Responses of ocean circulation and carbon cycle to changes in the position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Völker, Christoph; Köhler, Peter

2013-12-01

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric p CO 2 of less than 10 μatm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO 2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO 2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.

The influence of climatically-driven surface loading variations on continental strain and seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Tim; Calais, Eric; Fleitout, Luce; Bollinger, Laurent; Scotti, Oona

2016-04-01

In slowly deforming regions of plate interiors, secondary sources of stress and strain can result in transient deformation rates comparable to, or greater than, the background tectonic rates. Highly variable in space and time, these transients have the potential to influence the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity, interfering with any background tectonic effects to either promote or inhibit the failure of pre-existing faults, and potentially leading to a clustered, or 'pulse-like', seismic history. Here, we investigate the ways in which the large-scale deformation field resulting from climatically-controlled changes in surface ice mass over the Pleistocene and Holocene may have influenced not only the seismicity of glaciated regions, but also the wider seismicity around the ice periphery. We first use a set of geodynamic models to demonstrate that a major pulse of seismic activity occurring in Fennoscandia, coincident with the time of end-glaciation, occurred in a setting where the contemporaneous horizontal strain-rate resulting from the changing ice mass, was extensional - opposite to the reverse sense of coseismic displacement accommodated on these faults. Therefore, faulting did not release extensional elastic strain that was building up at the time of failure, but compressional elastic strain that had accumulated in the lithosphere on timescales longer than the glacial cycle, illustrating the potential for a non-tectonic trigger to tap in to the background tectonic stress-state. We then move on to investigate the more distal influence that changing ice (and ocean) volumes may have had on the evolving strain field across intraplate Europe, how this is reflected in the seismicity across intraplate Europe, and what impact this might have on the paleoseismic record.

Do psychobiosocial states mediate the relationship between perceived motivational climate and individual motivation in youngsters?

PubMed

Bortoli, Laura; Bertollo, Maurizio; Filho, Edson; Robazza, Claudio

2014-01-01

Grounded in achievement goal theory and self-determination theory, this cross-sectional study examined the relationship between perceived motivational climate and individuals' motivation as well as the mediation effect of psychobiosocial states as conceptualised within the individual zones of optimal functioning (IZOF) model. Young students (N = 167, age range 14-15 years) taking part in physical education classes completed measures of teacher-initiated motivational climate, task and ego orientation, motivation and psychobiosocial states. Simple and serial mediation analyses indicated that a perceived mastery climate and individuals' task orientation were related to intrinsic motivation and identified regulation through the mediation of pleasant/functional psychobiosocial states. In contrast, a perceived performance climate was related to external regulation and amotivation through the mediation of unpleasant/dysfunctional psychobiosocial states. Regression analysis results also showed that discrete psychobiosocial states accounted for a significant proportion of variance in motivational variables. Taken together, findings highlight the role of psychobiosocial states as mediators of the relationship between motivational climate and an individual's motivation, and suggest that educators should consider a wide range of individual's functional and dysfunctional reactions deriving from their instructional activity.

An Analysis of School Culture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grace, Ronald A.

2009-01-01

This study offers an exploratory account of school climate, culture, and Black identity as posited by Milliones' (1980) Four Stages of Black Consciousness model. According to the literature schools having high populations of students from low socioeconomic backgrounds are considered problematic. Culture and climate significantly impact school…

Refugia Research Coalition: A regional-scale approach for connecting refugia science to natural and cultural resource management

EPA Science Inventory

Background / question / methods Warmer air and water temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered fire regimes associated with climate change threaten many important natural and cultural resources. Climate change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contempora...

Effects of watershed management on sources and fluxes of water, carbon, and nitrogen in streams: Climate implications

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Due to the interactive effects of urbanization and climate variability, managing impacts on watershed hydrology and biogeochemical processing has become increasingly important, particularly due to the enhanced potential for eutrophication and hypoxia i...

Predicting the relatiave vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change using a rule-based ecoinformatics approach

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Near-coastal species are threatened by multiple climate change drivers, including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. To identify vulnerable habitats, geographic regions, and species, we developed a sequential, rule-based...

Classroom climate indicators and attitudes towards foreigners.

PubMed

Gniewosz, Burkhard; Noack, Peter

2008-10-01

The school has been described as an important socialization agent in the process of political development. But the mechanism concerning how school contributes to political development has rarely been investigated. In this study we focus on contextual variables, i.e., classroom climate indicators that are seen as important aspects of the context in which adolescent development takes place. The study was based on the total of 1312 German students. In multilevel analyses, we regressed students' reports on intolerant attitudes towards foreigners on background characteristics as well as on the perceived classroom climate. Fairness in the classroom as perceived by the individual student was found to be negatively related to intolerance and achievement pressure was positively related. Students attending the high college-bound track reported less antiforeigner attitudes as did students where parents had a more sophisticated educational background. The results are discussed proposing schools to provide an open climate as a contextual framework for the development of tolerant attitudes among adolescents.

Chapter 6. Impacts of Climate Change on Oregon's Coasts and Estuaries in "Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report"

EPA Science Inventory

In 2007 the Oregon legislature created a new Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), which is based at Oregon State University (OSU). As part of its charter, OCCRI is mandated to produce a biennial report for the state legislature synthesizing climate change impacts a...

76 FR 17962 - Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-31

... Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of the United States AGENCY: U.S. Geological... Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of the United States''. The report reviews key issues related to freshwater resource data and climate change and identifies next steps to...

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707–1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 PMID:26645102

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

PubMed

2015-04-30

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

Downscaling U.S. public opinion about climate change and the 'Six Americas' to states, cities, and counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlon, J. R.; Howe, P. D.; Leiserowitz, A.

2013-12-01

For climate change communication to be most effective, messages should be targeted to the characteristics of local audiences. In the U.S., 'Six Americas' have been identified among the public based on their response to the climate change issue. The distribution of these different 'publics' varies between states and communities, yet data about public opinion at the sub-national scale remains scarce. In this presentation, we describe a methodology to statistically downscale results from national-level surveys about the Six Americas, climate literacy, and other aspects of public opinion to smaller areas, including states, metropolitan areas, and counties. The method utilizes multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to model public opinion at various scales using a large national-level survey dataset. We present state and county-level estimates of two key beliefs about climate change: belief that climate change is happening, and belief in the scientific consensus about climate change. We further present estimates of how the Six Americas vary across the U.S.

Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

2013-12-01

Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and critical problem solving appropriate to grade level.

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.

2013-01-01

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico’s dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops. PMID:23913999

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M

2013-02-01

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico's dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.

States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Bronzan, J.; Rodehorst, B.; Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Savonis, M.; Wiles, R.

2015-12-01

Many states are already experiencing the costly impacts of extreme climate and weather events. The occurrence, frequency and intensity of these events may change under future climates. Preparing for these changes takes time, and state government agencies and communities need to recognize the risks they could potentially face and the response actions already undertaken. The States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card project is the first-ever study that quantifies five climate-change-driven hazards, and the relevant state government response actions in each of the 50 states. The changing characteristics of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland and coastal flooding were assessed for the baseline period (around year 2000) through the years 2030 and 2050 across all 50 states. Bias-corrected statistically-downscaled (BCSD) climate projections (Reclamation, 2013) and hydrology projections (Reclamation, 2014) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 were used. The climate change response action analysis covers five critical sectors: Transportation, Energy, Water, Human Health and Communities. It examined whether there is evidence that the state is taking action to (1) reduce current risks, (2) raise its awareness of future risks, (3) plan for adaptation to the future risks, and (4) implement specific actions to reduce future risks for each applicable hazards. Results from the two analyses were aggregated and translated into a rating system that standardizes assessments across states, which can be easily understood by both technical and non-technical audiences. The findings in this study not only serve as a screening tool for states to recognize the hazards they could potentially face as climate changes, but also serve as a roadmap for states to address the gaps in response actions, and to improve climate preparedness and resilience.

The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

2010-12-01

Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda. Project results can also inform numerous other ongoing database efforts connected to the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change.

Protective School Climates and Reduced Risk for Suicide Ideation in Sexual Minority Youths

PubMed Central

Birkett, Michelle; Van Wagenen, Aimee; Meyer, Ilan H.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether sexual minority students living in states and cities with more protective school climates were at lower risk of suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts. Methods. Data on sexual orientation and past-year suicidal thoughts, plans, and attempts were from the pooled 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Surveys from 8 states and cities. We derived data on school climates that protected sexual minority students (e.g., percentage of schools with safe spaces and Gay–Straight Alliances) from the 2010 School Health Profile Survey, compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual students living in states and cities with more protective school climates reported fewer past-year suicidal thoughts than those living in states and cities with less protective climates (lesbians and gays: odds ratio [OR] = 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.47, 0.99; bisexuals: OR = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.66, 0.99). Results were robust to adjustment for potential state-level confounders. Sexual orientation disparities in suicidal thoughts were nearly eliminated in states and cities with the most protective school climates. Conclusions. School climates that protect sexual minority students may reduce their risk of suicidal thoughts. PMID:24328634

Climate change indicators in the United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published this report, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, to help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, ...

Steady-state solutions of a diffusive energy-balance climate model and their stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.

1975-01-01

A diffusive energy-balance climate model, governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation, was studied. Three positive steady-state solutions of this equation are found; they correspond to three possible climates of our planet: an interglacial (nearly identical to the present climate), a glacial, and a completely ice-covered earth. Models similar to the main one are considered, and the number of their steady states was determined. All the models have albedo continuously varying with latitude and temperature, and entirely diffusive horizontal heat transfer. The stability under small perturbations of the main model's climates was investigated. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the present climate and the deep freeze are stable, whereas the model's glacial is unstable. The dependence was examined of the number of steady states and of their stability on the average solar radiation.

A Statistical-Dynamical Approach to Intraseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

state of the climate system...information about the current or forecasted state of the climate system. Collocated with FNMOD, is the Air Force’s 14th Weather Squadron (14WS; formerly...relationships between the LSEFs and TC formations can be skillful regardless of the oscillatory state of the climate system. D.

Methods and Strategies: Making the Climate Connection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Bruce

2010-01-01

This article presents classroom resources for teaching both weather and climate along with background resources for teachers who want to beef up their own knowledge in the subjects. In addition, the author proposes learning progressions that teachers can use to guide their instruction. (Contains 13 online resources.)

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impac...

Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.

2003-12-01

The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system

Self-Handicapping in School Physical Education: The Influence of the Motivational Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Standage, Martyn; Treasure, Darren C.; Hooper, Katherine; Kuczka, Kendy

2007-01-01

Background: Self-handicapping is an attribution-related process whereby individuals create performance impediments/excuses to protect self-worth in socially evaluative environments. Thus, the prevailing motivational climate would appear to be an important factor when attempting to understand the situational self-handicapping process within school…

Biotic regulation of CO2 uptake-climate responses: Links to vegetation properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Primary productivity is regulated by climatic factors, but also depends on which plant species are present and, more specifically, on how plant traits that control photosynthesis and its response to the environment are distributed in the community. We used remotely-sense...

Hierarchical Linear Modelling of Student and School Effects on Academic Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Xin; Klinger, Don A.

2000-01-01

Used hierarchical linear modeling with data from the New Brunswick School Climate Study (Canada) to examine student background, school context, and school climate effects on Grade 6 student achievement in mathematics, science, reading, and writing. Gender, socioeconomic status, and Native ethnicity were significant predictors of academic…

The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

New Opportunities for Principal Leadership: Shaping School Climates for Enhanced Teacher Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drago-Severson, Eleanor

2012-01-01

Background/Context: Improved professional development for teachers and principals is central to our national educational agenda. Principals struggle with the challenge of how to build school climates that improve practice in an era of heightened accountability and increasingly complex adaptive challenges. Purpose/Objective/Research Questions/Focus…

Pride in Oklahoma.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Gordon; Blackburn, Bob L.

This booklet is intended to be used as background material by social studies and history classroom teachers as they develop and implement educational programs on Oklahoma's heritage. It includes background information on the land and people of Oklahoma (geology, climate, topography, vegetation, animals, prehistoric peoples, French explorers,…

Convening Young Leaders for Climate Resilience in New York State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

This project, led by The Wild Center, will partner with Cornell Cooperative Extension of Delaware County, the Kurt Hahn Expeditionary Learning School in Brooklyn, and the Alliance for Climate Education to do the following over three years: 1) increase climate literacy and preparedness planning in high school students through place-based Youth Climate Summits in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and New York City; 2) enhance young people's capacity to lead on climate issues through a Youth Climate Leadership Practicum 3) increase teacher comprehension and understanding of climate change through a Teacher Climate Institute and 4) communicate climate change impacts and resilience through student-driven Community Climate Outreach activities. The project will align with New York State's climate resiliency planning by collaborating with the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Office of Climate (OCC), NYS Energy Research Development Authority (NYSERDA), and NOAA's Climate Program Office to provide accurate scientific information, resources, and tools. This collaboration will result in an increase in understanding of the impacts of climate change in rural (Adirondacks, Catskills) and urban (New York City) regions of New York State; a wider awareness of the threats and vulnerabilities that are associated with a community's location; and a stronger connection between current community resilience initiatives, educators, and youth. All three of the project sites are critically underserved in both climate literacy and action, making addressing the need of these sites to be resilient and proactive in the face of climate change critical. Our model will provide pilot lessons for how youth in both rural and urban areas can draw on local assets to address resiliency in ways appropriate for their own areas, and these lessons may be able to be applied across the United States.The proposed project is informed by best practices and specifically strengthens and replicates The Wild Center's past success with the Adirondack Youth Climate Summit, student leadership, and student-led community outreach for climate awareness - all work that has been tested or piloted over the last seven years.

Do state characteristics matter? State level factors related to tobacco cessation quitlines

PubMed Central

Keller, Paula A; Koss, Kalsea J; Baker, Timothy B; Bailey, Linda A; Fiore, Michael C

2007-01-01

Background Quitline services are an effective population‐wide tobacco cessation strategy adopted widely in the United States as part of state comprehensive tobacco control efforts. Despite widespread evidence supporting quitlines' effectiveness, many states lack sufficient financial resources to adequately fund and promote this service. Efforts to augment state tobacco control efforts might be fostered by greater knowledge of state level factors associated with the funding and implementation of those efforts. Methods We analysed data from the 2004 North American Quitline Consortium survey and from publicly available sources to identify state level factors related to quitline implementation and funding. Factors included in the analyses were state demographic characteristics, tobacco use variables, state tobacco control spending, and economic and political climate variables. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted. Results The best fitting multivariate model that significantly predicted the presence or absence of a state quitline included only cigarette excise tax rate (p = 0.020). In terms of funding levels, states with high rates of cigarette consumption (p = 0.047) and with higher per capita expenditures for tobacco control programmes (p = 0 .0.004) were most likely to spend more on per capita operations budget for quitlines. Conclusion State level factors appear to play a part in whether states had established quitlines by mid‐2004 and the amount of per capita quitline funding. PMID:18048637

Current and future background ozone simulations for Mexico using a multi-scale regional climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. K.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Avise, J. C.; Chung, S. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Streets, D. G.

2013-05-01

Global change will clearly have a significant impact on the environment. Among the concerns for future air quality in North America, intercontinental transport of pollution has become increasingly important. In this study, we examined the effect of projected changes in Asian emissions and emissions from lightning and wildfires to produce ozone background concentrations within Mexico and the continental US. This provides a basis for developing an understanding of North American background levels and how they may change in the future. Meteorological fields were downscaled from the results of the ECHAM5 global climate model using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two nested domains were employed, one covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America using 220 km grid cells (semi-hemispheric domain) and one covering the continental US and northern Mexico using 36 km grid cells. Meteorological results from WRF were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing tool, and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone concentrations for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) summertime conditions. The MEGAN model was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations. For the semi-hemispheric domain, year 2000 global emissions of gases (ozone precursors) from anthropogenic (outside of North America), natural, and biomass burning sources from the POET and EDGAR emission inventories were used. The global tabulation for black and organic carbon (BC and OC respectively) was obtained from Bond et al. (2004) For the future decade, the current emissions were projected to the year 2050 following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. Anthropogenic emissions from the US, Canada, and Mexico were omitted so that only global background concentrations, and local biogenic, wildfire, and lightning emissions were treated. In this paper, we focus on background ozone levels in Mexico due to changes in future climate, local biogenic emissions and global emissions.

Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

PubMed Central

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-01-01

Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-01-01

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Development and Validation of the Survey of Organizational Research Climate (SORC)

PubMed Central

Martinson, Brian C.; Thrush, Carol R.; Crain, A. Lauren

2012-01-01

Background Development and targeting efforts by academic organizations to effectively promote research integrity can be enhanced if they are able to collect reliable data to benchmark baseline conditions, to assess areas needing improvement, and to subsequently assess the impact of specific initiatives. To date, no standardized and validated tool has existed to serve this need. Methods A web- and mail-based survey was administered in the second half of 2009 to 2,837 randomly selected biomedical and social science faculty and postdoctoral fellows at 40 academic health centers in top-tier research universities in the United States. Measures included the Survey of Organizational Research Climate (SORC) as well as measures of perceptions of organizational justice. Results Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses yielded seven subscales of organizational research climate, all of which demonstrated acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach’s α ranging from 0.81 to 0.87) and adequate test-retest reliability (Pearson r ranging from 0.72 to 0.83). A broad range of correlations between the seven subscales and five measures of organizational justice (unadjusted regression coefficients ranging from .13 to .95) document both construct and discriminant validity of the instrument. Conclusions The SORC demonstrates good internal (alpha) and external reliability (test-retest) as well as both construct and discriminant validity. PMID:23096775

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

NCA-LDAS: A Terrestrial Water Analysis System Enabling Sustained Assessment and Dissemination of National Climate Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasinski, M. F.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Beaudoing, H. K.; Bolten, J. D.; Borak, J.; Kempler, S.; Li, B.; Mocko, D. M.; Rodell, M.; Rui, H.; Silberstein, D. S.; Teng, W. L.; Vollmer, B.

2016-12-01

The National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System, or NCA-LDAS, is an integrated terrestrial water analysis system created as an end-to-end enabling tool for sustained assessment and dissemination of terrestrial hydrologic indicators in support of the NCA. The primary features are i) gridded, daily time series of over forty hydrologic variables including terrestrial water and energy balance stores, states and fluxes over the continental U.S. derived from land surface modeling with multivariate satellite data record assimilation (1979-2015), ii) estimated trends of the principal water balance components over a wide range of scales and locations, and iii) public dissemination of all NCA-LDAS model forcings, and input and output data products through dedicated NCA-LDAS and NASA GES-DISC websites. NCA-LDAS supports sustained assessment of our national terrestrial hydrologic climate for improved scientific understanding, and the adaptation and management of water resources and related energy sectors. This presentation provides an overview of the NCA-LDAS system together with an evaluation of the initial release of NCA-LDAS data products and trends using two land surface models; Noah Ver. 3.3 and Catchment Ver. Fortuna 2.5, and a listing of several available pathways for public access and visualization of NCA-LDAS background information and data products.

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Organic condensation: A vital link connecting aerosol formation to climate forcing (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Nieminen, T.; Häkkinen, S.; Ehn, M.; Junninen, H.; Lehtipalo, K.; Petdjd, T. T.; Slowik, J. G.; Chang, R. Y.; Shantz, N. C.; Abbatt, J.; Leaitch, W. R.; Kerminen, V.; Worsnop, D. R.; Pandis, S. N.; Donahue, N. M.; Kulmala, M. T.

2010-12-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions represent the largest uncertainty in calculations of Earth’s radiative forcing. Number concentrations of atmospheric aerosol particles are in the core of this uncertainty, as they govern the numbers of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and influence the albedo and lifetime of clouds. Aerosols also impair air quality through their adverse effects on atmospheric visibility and human health. The ultrafine fraction (<100 nm) of atmospheric aerosol particles often dominates the total aerosol numbers, and nucleation of atmospheric vapours is one of the most important sources of these particles. To have climatic relevance, however, the freshly-nucleated particles need to grow in size, and consequently their climatic importance remains to be quantified (see Fig. 1). We combine observations from two continental sites (Egbert, Canada and Hyytiälä, Finland) to show that condensation of organic vapours is a crucial factor governing the lifetimes and climatic importance of the smallest atmospheric particles. We demonstrate that state-of-the-science organic gas-particle partitioning models fail to reproduce the observations; we propose a new modelling approach that is consistent with the measurements. Finally, we demonstrate the large sensitivity of climatic forcing of atmospheric aerosols to these interactions between organic vapours and the smallest atmospheric nanoparticles - highlighting the need for representing this process in global climate models. Figure 1. Organic emissions and the dynamic processes governing the climatic importance of ultrafine aerosol. Condensable vapours are produced upon oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and can 1) nucleate to form new small particles; 2) grow freshly formed particles to larger sizes and increase their probability to serve as CCN; 3) condense on the background aerosol (> 100 nm) and enhance the loss of ultrafine particles. Primary organic aerosol (POA) contributes to the large end of the aerosol size distribution, enhancing the scavenging of the ultrafine particles.

Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Yan

The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a primary factor controlling the current forecast skill.

Climate change through an intersectional lens: gendered vulnerability and resilience in indigenous communities in the United States

Treesearch

Kirsten Vinyeta; Kyle Powys Whyte; Kathy Lynn

2015-01-01

The scientific and policy literature on climate change increasingly recognizes the vulnerabilities of indigenous communities and their capacities for resilience. The role of gender in defining how indigenous peoples experience climate change in the United States is a research area that deserves more attention. Advancing climate change threatens the continuance of many...

Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

2012-01-01

Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change...

The Dynamic General Vegetation Model MC1 over the United States and Canada at a 5-arcminute resolution: model inputs and outputs

Treesearch

Ray Drapek; John B. Kim; Ronald P. Neilson

2015-01-01

Land managers need to include climate change in their decisionmaking, but the climate models that project future climates operate at spatial scales that are too coarse to be of direct use. To create a dataset more useful to managers, soil and historical climate were assembled for the United States and Canada at a 5-arcminute grid resolution. Nine CMIP3 future climate...

CSUB CREST Research on Climate Change and the San Joaquin Valley, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krugh, W. C.; Negrini, R. M.; Baron, D.; Gillespie, J.; Horton, R. A.; Montoya, E.; Cruz-Boone, C.; Andrews, G. D.; Guo, J.

2015-12-01

As part of the NSF-supported Centers for Excellence in Science and Technology (CREST), student and faculty researchers at California State University, Bakersfield (CSUB) have been investigating the regional impacts of climate change as well as evaluating the potential of local contributions to its abatement. Highlights of this research include; 1) the development of a high-resolution climate record from Tulare Lake sediments that spans the past 20,000 years, 2) the quantitative analysis and prediction of climate change impacts on Sierra Nevada snowpack, 3) the detailed subsurface characterization of San Joaquin Valley oilfields targeted for CO2 sequestration, and 4) the evaluation of proposed host rock suitability under simulated CO2 injection conditions. To date, CSUB CREST supported research has resulted in 26 contributions to peer-reviewed journals (currently published or in-review). A primary goal of CSUB CREST is to improve the recruitment, retention, and success of students from the local community, the majority of whom are from backgrounds under-represented in STEM disciplines. More than 28 students have been directly involved in the basic and applied research projects supported by this program. The majority of these students have received, or are on track to receive, an M.S. degree and have ultimately gained employment in a STEM field or been accepted into a Ph.D. program. This presentation, and others in this session, will focus on the accomplishments, challenges, and strategies for success gleaned from CSUB CREST Phase 1.

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Charmian M.; Dear, Keith B. G.; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-07-01

Studies in temperate countries have shown that both hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter increase short-term (daily) mortality. The gradual warming, decade on decade, that Australia has experienced since the 1960s, might therefore be expected to have differentially affected mortality in the two seasons, and thus indicate an early impact of climate change on human health. Failure to detect such a signal would challenge the widespread assumption that the effect of weather on mortality implies a similar effect of a change from the present to projected future climate. We examine the ratio of summer to winter deaths against a background of rising average annual temperatures over four decades: the ratio has increased from 0.71 to 0.86 since 1968. The same trend, albeit of varying strength, is evident in all states of Australia, in four age groups (aged 55 years and above) and in both sexes. Analysis of cause-specific mortality suggests that the change has so far been driven more by reduced winter mortality than by increased summer mortality. Furthermore, comparisons of this seasonal mortality ratio calculated in the warmest subsets of seasons in each decade, with that calculated in the coldest seasons, show that particularly warm annual conditions, which mimic the expected temperatures of future climate change, increase the likelihood of higher ratios (approaching 1:1). Overall, our results indicate that gradual climate change, as well as short-term weather variations, affect patterns of mortality.

Seed dormancy and germination changes of snowbed species under climate warming: the role of pre- and post-dispersal temperatures

PubMed Central

Bernareggi, Giulietta; Carbognani, Michele; Mondoni, Andrea; Petraglia, Alessandro

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Climate warming has major impacts on seed germination of several alpine species, hence on their regeneration capacity. Most studies have investigated the effects of warming after seed dispersal, and little is known about the effects a warmer parental environment may have on germination and dormancy of the seed progeny. Nevertheless, temperatures during seed development and maturation could alter the state of dormancy, affecting the timing of emergence and seedling survival. Here, the interplay between pre- and post-dispersal temperatures driving seed dormancy release and germination requirements of alpine plants were investigated. Methods Three plant species inhabiting alpine snowbeds were exposed to an artificial warming treatment (i.e. +1·5 K) and to natural conditions in the field. Seeds produced were exposed to six different periods of cold stratification (0, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 20 weeks at 0 °C), followed by four incubation temperatures (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C) for germination testing. Key Results A warmer parental environment produced either no or a significant increase in germination, depending on the duration of cold stratification, incubation temperatures and their interaction. In contrast, the speed of germination was less sensitive to changes in the parental environment. Moreover, the effects of warming appeared to be linked to the level of (physiological) seed dormancy, with deeper dormant species showing major changes in response to incubation temperatures and less dormant species in response to cold stratification periods. Conclusions Plants developed under warmer climates will produce seeds with changed germination responses to temperature and/or cold stratification, but the extent of these changes across species could be driven by seed dormancy traits. Transgenerational plastic adjustments of seed germination and dormancy shown here may result from increased seed viability, reduced primary and secondary dormancy state, or both, and may play a crucial role in future plant adaptation to climate change. PMID:27390354

Life politics, nature and the state: Giddens' sociological theory and The Politics of Climate Change.

PubMed

Thorpe, Charles; Jacobson, Brynna

2013-03-01

Anthony Giddens' The Politics of Climate Change represents a significant shift in the way in which he addresses ecological politics. In this book, he rejects the relevance of environmentalism and demarcates climate-change policy from life politics. Giddens addresses climate change in the technocratic mode of simple rather than reflexive modernization. However, Giddens' earlier sociological theory provides the basis for a more reflexive understanding of climate change. Climate change instantiates how, in high modernity, the existential contradiction of the human relationship with nature returns in new form, expressed in life politics and entangled with the structural contradictions of the capitalist state. The interlinking of existential and structural contradiction is manifested in the tension between life politics and the capitalist nation-state. This tension is key for understanding the failures so far of policy responses to climate change. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2013.

Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

2013-01-01

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

A Survey of Registered Dietitians’ Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Irana W.; Balsam, Alan L.; Goldman, Robert

2015-01-01

Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice. PMID:26217666

A test of safety, violence prevention, and civility climate domain-specific relationships with relevant workplace hazards

PubMed Central

Spector, Paul E.

2016-01-01

Background Safety climate, violence prevention climate, and civility climate were independently developed and linked to domain-specific workplace hazards, although all three were designed to promote the physical and psychological safety of workers. Purpose To test domain specificity between conceptually related workplace climates and relevant workplace hazards. Methods Data were collected from 368 persons employed in various industries and descriptive statistics were calculated for all study variables. Correlational and relative weights analyses were used to test for domain specificity. Results The three climate domains were similarly predictive of most workplace hazards, regardless of domain specificity. Discussion This study suggests that the three climate domains share a common higher order construct that may predict relevant workplace hazards better than any of the scales alone. PMID:27110930

Stakeholders' participatory diagnosis of climate change impacts on subsistence agriculture in Sikkim, India, for identifying adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azhoni, A.; Goyal, M. K.

2017-12-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact subsistence agriculture. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers and perspectives of consultants and researchers which are expected to be implemented by development agencies farmers in the state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the framing and implementation of State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the State Government, Scientific Organisations, consultants, local academia, implementing and development agencies, and farmers for whom the adaptation strategies are targeted. Using Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis approach, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying adaptation strategies, and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for their subsistence livelihood, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them an access to new and high value crops. Although important steps are initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and identifying the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will likely to pay rich dividends. While Sikkim being a small and hilly state with specific contextual challenges of climate change impacts, the results from this study highlights how the internal and external networks between various types of stakeholders informs decision makers in identifying local impacts of climate change and plan adaptation strategies.

Projecting climate change in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; David P. Coulson; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence

2014-01-01

A set of climate change projections for the United States was developed for use in the 2010 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. These climate projections, along with projections for population dynamics, economic growth, and land use change in the United States, comprise the RPA scenarios and are used in the RPA Assessment to project future renewable resource conditions...

Conceptual framework to ensure water security in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadzalo, Yaroslav; Romashchenko, Mykhailo; Yatsiuk, Mykhailo

2018-02-01

As a result of global climate change against the background of natural water supply deterioration and river water content reductions, nowadays Ukraine is facing the problem of environmental degradation of river basins. In light of this, we suggest that achieving an acceptable level of water security in Ukraine should be defined as the strategic objective of national water policy. The state of national water security should be evaluated by its progress in certain sectors. The basic principles of the new water policy of Ukraine are supposed to be represented in Water Strategy of Ukraine. Integrated water management by the basin principle should serve as the main tool for achieving the objectives of water security.

Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes. The analyses suggest that several biological indicators may be used to detect climate change effects and such indicators can be used by state bioassessment programs to document changes at high-quality reference sites. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes.

Global climate change impacts in the United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

Obama states obligation to act on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-11-01

Obama states obligation to act on climate change Noting increased global temperatures, Arctic ice melt, and severe weather events, President Barack Obama said that climate change is real and called for a conversation across the country to determine what can be done about it.

Climate Change Indicators for the United States

EPA Science Inventory

EPA’s publishes the Climate Change Indicators for the United States report to communicate information about the science and impacts of climate change, track trends in environmental quality, and inform de¬cision-making. This report presents a set of key indicators to help readers ...

EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation summarizes recent results produced in support of the assessment of climate change impacts on ozone and particulate matter over the continental United States. Preliminary findings of climate scenario, meteorologically-drive emissions and air quality simulation a...

Biophysical impacts of climate-smart agriculture in the Midwest United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The potential impacts of climate change in the Midwest United States present unprecedented challenges to regional agriculture. In response to these challenges, a variety of climate-smart agricultural methodologies have been proposed to retain or improve crop yields, reduce agricultural greenhouse ga...

Orbital Noise in the Earth System is a Common Cause of Climate and Greenhouse-Gas Fluctuation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, H. S.; Kolenkiewicz, R.; Wade, C., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Kristie S; LePrevost, Catherine E

2016-02-03

Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate.

Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

2014-01-01

Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

2010-01-01

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

Climate change and wildlife in the southern United States: potential effects and management options

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Roger W. Perry; Kathleen E. Franzreb; Susan C. Loeb; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph; Eric Winters; E.M. Fucik; M.A. Kwiatkowski; B.R. Parresol; J.D. Austin; G.W. Tanner

2014-01-01

In the southeastern United States, climate models project a temperature increase of 2-10°C by 2100 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007). Climate change is already evident. Since the 1970s, average temperature has risen by about 1°C, with the greatest seasonal temperature increase during winter. Average precipitation during autumn has increased by 30% since...

Decay hazard (Scheffer) index values calculated from 1971-2000 climate normal data

Treesearch

Charles G. Carll

2009-01-01

Climate index values for estimating decay hazard to wood exposed outdoors above ground (commonly known as Scheffer index values) were calculated for 280 locations in the United States (270 locations in the conterminous United States) using the most current climate normal data available from the National Climatic Data Center. These were data for the period 1971–2000. In...

Obama Presents Far-Reaching Climate Plan, Addresses Keystone Pipeline Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-07-01

Stating that climate change "is a challenge that does not pause for partisan gridlock," U.S. President Barack Obama took matters into his own hands and presented a broad-based climate action plan on 25 June. The plan, which relies on existing administrative authority and does not require congressional approval, includes three primary objectives: cutting carbon pollution in the United States, preparing the nation for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to address climate change.

Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Climate Resilience Screening Index is being developed that is applicable at multiple scales for the United States. Those scales include national, state, county and community. The index will be applied at the first three scales and at selected communities. The index was developed in order to explicitly include domains, indicators and metrics addressing environmental, economic and societal aspects of climate resilience. In addition, the index uses indicators and metrics that assess ecosystem, economic, governance and social services at these scales. Finally, we are developing forecasting approaches that can relate intended changes in services and governance to likely levels of changes in the resiliency of communities to climate change impacts. The present challenge is the incorporation of the index, its relationships to governance and the developing forecasting tools into Federal decision-making across US government and into state/county/community decision-making across the US. Governmental acceptance of changes to policies often can be just as challenging as the initial technical acceptance of the index and its relation to climate change. Climate Resilience Index is a requested product by ORD AA and EPA Administrator through SHC Program. Index needed to assess states', counties', and communities' abilities of recovery from climate events. Audience: Internal EPA (Administrator, IO, OLEM, OW and OAR) and external (states, counties and communities). Product

Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

2017-12-01

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue for the Anthropocene, these analyses clarify the similarities between the expected climates of the future and the geological climates of the past.

The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

PubMed

Mahony, Martin

2014-02-01

Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

2013-04-01

The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory data analysis the approaches on climate time series, trend analysis and extreme events analysis are explained. Tools to describe relations within the data sets and significance tests further corroborate this. Within the weekly exercises that have to be prepared at home, the students work with self-selected climate data sets and apply the learned methods. The presentation and discussion of intermediate results by the students is as much part of the exercises as the illustration of possible methodological procedures by the teacher using exemplary data sets. The total time expenditure of the course is 270 hours with 90 attendance hours. The remainder consists of individual studies, e.g., preparation of discussions and presentations, statistical data analysis, and scientific writing. Different forms of examination are applied including written or oral examination, scientific report, presentation and portfolio work.

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to themore » economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.« less

A Record of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Zach

2007-01-01

The hydrologic cycle is a very basic scientific principle. In this article, background information is presented on how the hydrologic cycle provides scientists with clues to understanding the history of Earth's climate. Also detailed is a web-based activity that allows students to learn about how scientists are able to piece together a record of…

An Ecological Analysis of a Preschool Mastery Climate Physical Education Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hastie, Peter A.; Rudisill, Mary E.; Boyd, Korey

2016-01-01

Background: Previous studies of mastery motivational climates within physical education have reported that providing students with opportunities to become self-directed leads to a number of positive outcomes, including skill attainment and increased perceptions of ability. Nonetheless, within all of these studies, there has been no account of the…

77 FR 47433 - Presquile National Wildlife Refuge, Chesterfield County, VA; Comprehensive Conservation Plan and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-08

... 120 school-aged students each year and a 3-day deer hunt each fall. Background The CCP Process The... respond to potential impacts of climate change on existing refuge habitats? How will the refuge improve..., monitor for climate change impacts, distribute refuge revenue sharing payments, support research on the...

Positive School Climate Is Associated with Lower Body Mass Index Percentile among Urban Preadolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilstad-Hayden, Kathryn; Carroll-Scott, Amy; Rosenthal, Lisa; Peters, Susan M.; McCaslin, Catherine; Ickovics, Jeannette R.

2014-01-01

Background: Schools are an important environmental context in children's lives and are part of the complex web of factors that contribute to childhood obesity. Increasingly, attention has been placed on the importance of school climate (connectedness, academic standards, engagement, and student autonomy) as 1 domain of school environment beyond…

Projected loss of a salamander diversity hotspot as a consequence of projected global climate change

Treesearch

Joseph R. Milanovich; William E. Peterman; Nathan P. Nibbelink; John C. Maerz

2010-01-01

Background: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation....

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Understanding the emergence of state goal orientation in organizational work groups: the role of leadership and multilevel climate perceptions.

PubMed

Dragoni, Lisa

2005-11-01

This article attends to a broad range of practically significant employee motivations and provides insight into how to enhance individual-level performance by examining individual-level state goal orientation emergence in organizational work groups. Leadership and multilevel climate processes are theorized to parallel each dimension of state goal orientation to cue and ultimately induce the corresponding achievement focus among individual work group members. It is argued that the patterns of leader behavior, which elucidate the leader's achievement priority, shape group members' psychological and work group climate to embody this priority. Resulting multilevel climate perceptions signal and compel group members to adopt the ascribed form of state goal orientation. The quality of the leader-member exchange relationship is viewed as a means to clarify leader messages in the formation of group members' psychological climate and internalize these cues in the emergence of state goal orientation. Considerations for future research and practice are discussed. ((c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate Change Now Apparent and Unequivocal, New Report Warns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-06-01

Climate change is happening now in the United States and globally, and its impacts are expected to become increasingly severe for more people and places unless the rate of emissions of heat-trapping gases is substantially reduced, according to a new report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” issued at a 16 June White House briefing. The 190-page report, a product of the interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), states that “global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.” Among other key findings of the report—which drew on USGCRP results and other studies including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment—is that climate change will have numerous impacts on water resources, ecosystems, agriculture, coastal areas, human health, and other sectors.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

USGS Publications Warehouse

,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

What would an environmentally sustainable reproductive technology industry look like?

PubMed

Richie, Cristina

2015-05-01

Through the use of assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), multiple children are born adding to worldwide carbon emissions. Evaluating the ethics of offering reproductive services against its overall harm to the environment makes unregulated ARTs unjustified, yet the ART business can move towards sustainability as a part of the larger green bioethics movement. By integrating ecological ethos into the ART industry, climate change can be mitigated and the conversation about consumption can become a broader public discourse. Although the impact of naturally made children on the environment is undeniable, I will focus on the ART industry as an anthropogenic source of carbon emissions which lead to climate change. The ART industry is an often overlooked source of environmental degradation and decidedly different from natural reproduction as fertility centres provide a service for a fee and therefore can be subject to economic, policy and bioethical scrutiny. In this article, I will provide a brief background on the current state of human-driven climate change before suggesting two conservationist strategies that can be employed in the ART business. First, endorsing a carbon capping programme that limits the carbon emissions of ART businesses will be proposed. Second, I will recommend that policymakers eliminate funded ARTs for those who are not biologically infertile. I will conclude the article by urging policymakers and all those concerned with climate change to consider the effects of the reproductive technologies industry in light of climate change and move towards sustainability. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Transportation Resilience Tools from the U.S. Department of Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, C.; Rodehorst, B.; Miller, R.; Choate, A.; Hyman, R.; Kafalenos, R.; Beucler, B.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) and ICF International have been working to develop tools and resources to help state departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare for the impacts of climate change. U.S. DOT recently released a set of climate change and extreme weather tools for state DOTs and MPOs that address key challenges they have faced in increasing their climate change resilience. The tools were developed under the U.S. DOT Gulf Coast Study, Phase 2. The CMIP Climate Data Processing Tool provides an easy way for users to gather and process downscaled climate model data at the local level, and "translates" that data into information relevant to transportation engineers and planners. The Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool (VAST), provides a step-by-step approach for users to assess their vulnerability to climate change in a transparent, cost-effective way. The Transportation Climate Change Sensitivity Matrix provides detailed information on how 11 different climate stressors may affect transportation infrastructure and operations. These tools significantly advance the state of the practice for transportation agencies to respond to climate change impacts, and beta-versions have been used successfully by several state DOTs and MPOs. This presentation will focus on these tools, examples of how they can be applied within transportation agencies, and opportunities to apply the lessons learned from the tools—or even the tools themselves—beyond the transportation sector, including as part of the national Climate Resilience Toolkit.

Who Is Learning About Climate Change in American Schools? An Analysis of Climate Change in Curriculum Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, B. W.; Francis, T. K.

2014-12-01

This work attempts to answer the question "how much, if any, climate change, exists in middle and high school curricula in the United States?" A necessary first step towards this answer involves an examination of Global Climate Change (GCC) coverage in the requisite standards documents. Until recently, each state had its own science framework, with four states (at the time of writing) having already adopted the new Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, Inc, 2013). This work reports on an analysis of the extent to which GCC exists within the content frameworks of each state, including the NGSS. The analysis began with a word search for such content as "climate change", "greenhouse effect", and "global warming". We then searched through the remainder of the documents in question to understand the nuance of each framework. Each framework was then scored on a scale form zero (no mention of climate change) to four (climate change is explicit, an anthropogenic potential cause is emphasized, and GCC appears within at least one standard of its own). Eighteen states scored a zero, while only five states scored a four. This is particularly troubling, in light of recent statements of scientific consensus (AAAS, 2006; 2009; AGU, 2013; IPCC, 2007). While the NGSS scored well, it is unclear what this means in terms of actual students encountering the subject of climate change in actual classroom. Attention is given to some still-problematic aspects of GCC content are addressed, including its focus largely within courses not required for graduation, as well as the murky details of the yet-to-be determined processes by which individual states will choose to test, or not to test, the subject matter. The authors conclude that as of 2013, there is little evidence that students in most states are required to take courses which include significant aspects of GCC in their curricula.

Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Treesearch

Lindsey Rustad; John Campbell; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Thomas Huntington; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Jacqueline Mohan; Nicholas Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme...

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

A review of the potential effects of climate change on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) in the Western United States and a new tool for surveying sudden aspen decline

Treesearch

Toni Lyn Morelli; Susan C. Carr

2011-01-01

We conducted a literature review of the effects of climate on the distribution and growth of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the Western United States. Based on our review, we summarize models of historical climate determinants of contemporary aspen distribution. Most quantitative climate-based models linked aspen presence and growth...

An approach to developing local climate change environmental public health indicators, vulnerability assessments, and projections of future impacts.

PubMed

Houghton, Adele; English, Paul

2014-01-01

Environmental public health indicators (EPHIs) are used by local, state, and federal health agencies to track the status of environmental hazards; exposure to those hazards; health effects of exposure; and public health interventions designed to reduce or prevent the hazard, exposure, or resulting health effect. Climate and health EPHIs have been developed at the state, federal, and international levels. However, they are also needed at the local level to track variations in community vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance community resilience. This review draws on a guidance document developed by the U.S. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' State Environmental Health Indicators Collaborative climate change working group to present a three-tiered approach to develop local climate change EPHIs. Local climate change EPHIs can assist local health departments (LHDs) in implementing key steps of the 10 essential public health services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework. They also allow LHDs to incorporate climate-related trends into the larger health department planning process and can be used to perform vulnerability assessments which can be leveraged to ensure that interventions designed to address climate change do not exacerbate existing health disparities.

Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

2014-06-16

"How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators, Vulnerability Assessments, and Projections of Future Impacts

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Environmental public health indicators (EPHIs) are used by local, state, and federal health agencies to track the status of environmental hazards; exposure to those hazards; health effects of exposure; and public health interventions designed to reduce or prevent the hazard, exposure, or resulting health effect. Climate and health EPHIs have been developed at the state, federal, and international levels. However, they are also needed at the local level to track variations in community vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance community resilience. This review draws on a guidance document developed by the U.S. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' State Environmental Health Indicators Collaborative climate change working group to present a three-tiered approach to develop local climate change EPHIs. Local climate change EPHIs can assist local health departments (LHDs) in implementing key steps of the 10 essential public health services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework. They also allow LHDs to incorporate climate-related trends into the larger health department planning process and can be used to perform vulnerability assessments which can be leveraged to ensure that interventions designed to address climate change do not exacerbate existing health disparities. PMID:25349621

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 7. Economic Analysis of Field Crops and Land Use with Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sands, Ronald D.; Edmonds, James A.

PNNL's Agriculture and Land Use (AgLU) model is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-year time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and the BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agriculturalmore » productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.« less

School Climate Measurement and Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faster, Darlene; Lopez, Daisy

2013-01-01

Today, school climate assessment has become an increasingly important and valued aspect of district, state, and federal policy. Recognizing that effective school climate improvement efforts are grounded in valid and reliable data, the Federal Department of Education launched the Safe and Supportive Schools grant in 2010 to provide 11 states with…

Entrepreneurship Development and Business Climate of Kazakhstan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kydyrova, Zhamilya Sh.; Satymbekova, Katira B.; Kerimbek, Galymzhan E.; Imanbayev?, Zauresh O.; Saparbayev?, Saule S.; Nurgalieva, Ainash A.; Ilyas, Akylbek A.; Zhalbinova, Saule K.; Jrauovai, Kuralay S.; Kanafina, Ainura T.

2016-01-01

The goal is to explore the state of development of entrepreneurship and business climate for the formation of a clear mechanism of state support for small and average business in conditions of economy modernization. A special science-based methodology was developed to monitor the condition of entrepreneurship development and business climate in…

Vulnerability of United States Bridges to Potential Increases in Flooding from Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

This study assesses the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) are used to capture ...

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Integrating Health into Local Climate Response: Lessons from the U.S. CDC Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative

PubMed Central

Fox, Mary A.; Kaye, Charlotte; Resnick, Beth

2017-01-01

Summary: Public health has potential to serve as a frame to convey the urgency of behavior change needed to adapt to a changing climate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Local governments form the backbone of climate-related public health preparedness. Yet local health agencies are often inadequately prepared and poorly integrated into climate change assessments and plans. We reviewed the climate health profiles of 16 states and two cities participating in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) that aims to build local capacity to assess and respond to the health impacts of climate change. Following recommendations from a recent expert panel strategic review, we present illustrations of emerging promising practice and future directions. We found that CRSCI has strengthened climate preparedness and response in local public health agencies by identifying critical climate-health impacts and vulnerable populations, and has helped integrate health more fully into broader climate planning. Promising practice was found in all three recommendation areas identified by the expert panel (leveraging partnerships, refining assessment methodologies and enhancing communications), particularly with regard to health impacts of extreme heat. Vast needs remain, however, suggesting the need to disseminate CRSCI experience to non-grantees. In conclusion, the CRSCI program approach and selected activities illustrate a way forward toward robust, targeted local preparedness and response that may serve as a useful example for public health departments in the United States and internationally, particularly at a time of uncertain commitment to climate change agreements at the national level. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1838 PMID:28934724

Hope, despair and transformation: Climate change and the promotion of mental health and wellbeing

PubMed Central

Fritze, Jessica G; Blashki, Grant A; Burke, Susie; Wiseman, John

2008-01-01

Background This article aims to provide an introduction to emerging evidence and debate about the relationship between climate change and mental health. Discussion and Conclusion The authors argue that: i) the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events will have significant mental health implications; ii) climate change is already impacting on the social, economic and environmental determinants of mental health with the most severe consequences being felt by disadvantaged communities and populations; iii) understanding the full extent of the long term social and environmental challenges posed by climate change has the potential to create emotional distress and anxiety; and iv) understanding the psycho-social implications of climate change is also an important starting point for informed action to prevent dangerous climate change at individual, community and societal levels. PMID:18799005

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Evaluation of Consequences of Dust Positioned in Southwest of Iran on Coagulant Factors

PubMed Central

Saeb, Keivan; Sarizade, Gholamreza; Khodadi, Mohammad; Biazar, Esmaeil

2013-01-01

Background: Various regions in Iran, especially the Khuzestan Province, have been covered by dust and dirt during the past two years due to environmental changes in the Middle East. We sought to evaluate the effect of these pollutants on the coagulant factors of people residing in Abadan and Khoramshahr, two major cities of Khuzestan Province. Methods: One hundred twenty-nine healthy individuals were enrolled into this study, and their prothrombin time as well as fibrinogen, platelet, and Factor VIII levels were measured before and after climate changes. Results: After climate changes, the mean prothrombin time decreased, while the fibrinogen, platelet, and Factor VIII levels rose. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the pollutants deployed in the Middle East can affect prothrombin time as well as fibrinogen, platelet, and Factor VII levels considerably and increase coagulant state. The pollutants can, consequently, increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases. It seems that cooperation at government levels between Iran and its neighboring countries is required to reverse desertification and avoid inaccurate usage of subterranean water resources so as to lessen air pollution. PMID:23825886

Phytoplankton Biogeography and Community Stability in the Ocean

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro; de Vargas, Colomban; Abrantes, Fátima; Falkowski, Paul G.

2010-01-01

Background Despite enormous environmental variability linked to glacial/interglacial climates of the Pleistocene, we have recently shown that marine diatom communities evolved slowly through gradual changes over the past 1.5 million years. Identifying the causes of this ecological stability is key for understanding the mechanisms that control the tempo and mode of community evolution. Methodology/Principal Findings If community assembly were controlled by local environmental selection rather than dispersal, environmental perturbations would change community composition, yet, this could revert once environmental conditions returned to previous-like states. We analyzed phytoplankton community composition across >104 km latitudinal transects in the Atlantic Ocean and show that local environmental selection of broadly dispersed species primarily controls community structure. Consistent with these results, three independent fossil records of marine diatoms over the past 250,000 years show cycles of community departure and recovery tightly synchronized with the temporal variations in Earth's climate. Conclusions/Significance Changes in habitat conditions dramatically alter community structure, yet, we conclude that the high dispersal of marine planktonic microbes erases the legacy of past environmental conditions, thereby decreasing the tempo of community evolution. PMID:20368810

Interdisciplinary study of atmospheric processes and constituents of the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Attachment 4: Data set for background investigation of atmospheric constituents for Nansemond River site. [a proposed oil refinery site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kindle, E. C.; Bandy, E. C.; Copeland, G.; Blais, R.; Levy, G.; Sonenshine, D.; Adams, D.; Maier, G.

1975-01-01

Background data was provided for the assessment of the environmental impact of a proposed oil refinery location. Climatic background, particulate data, digitized portrayal of site molecular and meteorological data, graphical portrayal of molecular data, hourly meteorological data, and streamflow charts and radiosonde data are given

Climate and the equilibrium state of land surface hydrology parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

For given climatic rates of precipitation and potential evaporation, the land surface hydrology parameterizations of atmospheric general circulation models will maintain soil-water storage conditions that balance the moisture input and output. The surface relative soil saturation for such climatic conditions serves as a measure of the land surface parameterization state under a given forcing. The equilibrium value of this variable for alternate parameterizations of land surface hydrology are determined as a function of climate and the sensitivity of the surface to shifts and changes in climatic forcing are estimated.

Assessing Current State Science Teaching and Learning Standards for Ability to Achieve Climate Science Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, K. C.

2012-12-01

Even though there exists a high degree of consensus among scientists about climate change, doubt has actually increased over the last five years within the general U.S. public. In 2006, 79% of those polled agreed that there is evidence for global warming, while only 59% agreed in 2010 (Pew Research Center, 2010). The source for this doubt can be partially attributed to lack of knowledge. Formal education is one mechanism that potentially can address inadequate public understanding as school is the primary place where students - and future citizens - learn about the climate. In a joint effort, several governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, scientists and educators have created a framework called The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy, detailing seven concepts that are deemed vital for individuals and communities to understand Earth's climate system (USGCRP, 2009). Can students reach climate literacy - as defined by these 7 concepts - if they are taught using a curriculum based on the current state standards? To answer this question, the K-12 state science teaching and learning standards for Texas and California - two states that heavily influence nation-wide textbook creation - were compared against the Essential Principles. The data analysis consisted of two stages, looking for: 1) direct reference to "climate" and "climate change" and 2) indirect reference to the 7 Essential Principles through axial coding. The word "climate" appears in the California K-12 science standards 4 times and in the Texas standards 7 times. The word "climate change" appears in the California and Texas standards only 3 times each. Indirect references to the 7 Essential Principles of climate science literacy were more numerous. Broadly, California covered 6 of the principles while Texas covered all 7. In looking at the 7 principles, the second one "Climate is regulated by complex interactions among component of the Earth system" was the most substantively addressed. Least covered were number 6 "Human activities are impacting the climate system" and number 7 "Climate change will have consequences for the Earth system and human lives." Most references, either direct or indirect, occurred in the high school standards for earth science, a class not required for graduation in either state. This research points to the gaps between what the 7 Essential Principles of Climate Literacy defines as essential knowledge and what students may learn in their K-12 science classes. Thus, the formal system does not seem to offer an experience which can potentially develop a more knowledgeable citizenry who will be able to make wise personal and policy decisions about climate change, falling short of the ultimate goal of achieving widespread climate literacy. Especially troubling was the sparse attention to the principles addressing the human connection to the climate - principles number 6 and 7. If climate literate citizens are to make "wise personal and policy decisions" (USGCRP, 2009), these two principles especially are vital. This research, therefore, has been valuable for identifying current shortcomings in state standards.

USDA Southwest Regional Hub for Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Havstad, K.

2014-12-01

The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up of six states: New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, California and Hawaii (plus the Trust Territories of the Pacific Islands). The SW Climate Hub has a subsidiary hub located in Davis, California. The Southwest region has high climatic diversity, with the lowest and highest average annual rainfall in the U.S.(6.0 cm in Death Valley, CA and 1168 cm at Mt. Waialeale, HI). There are major deserts in five of the six states, yet most of the states, with exception of Hawaii, depend upon the melting of mountain snowpacks for their surface water supply. Additionally, many of the agricultural areas of the SW Regional Hub depend upon irrigation water to maintain productivity. Scientific climate information developed by the Hub will be used for climate-smart decision making. To do this, the SW Regional Hub will rely upon existing infrastructure of the Cooperative Extension Service at Land-Grant State Universities. Extension service and USDA-NRCS personnel have existing networks to communicate with stakeholders (farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners) through meetings and workshops which have already started in the six states. Outreach through the development of a weather and climate impact modules designed for seventh grade students and their teachers will foster education of future generations of rural land managers. We will be synthesizing and evaluating existing reports, literature and information on regional climate projections, water resources, and agricultural adaptation strategies related to climate in the Southwest. The results will be organized in a spatial format and provided through the SW Hub website (http://swclimatehub.info) and peer-reviewed articles.

A new Masters program in Greenhouse Gas Management and Accounting at Colorado State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conant, R. T.; Ogle, S. M.

2015-12-01

Management guru Peter Drucker said that "what gets measured gets managed." But the unstated implication is that what doesn't get measured doesn't get managed. Accurate quantification of greenhouse gas mitigation efforts is central to the clean technology sector. Very soon professionals of all kinds (business people, accountants, lawyers) will need to understand carbon accounting and crediting. Over the next few decades food production is expected to double and energy production must triple in order to meet growing global demands; sustainable management of land use and agricultural systems will be critical. The food and energy supply challenges are inextricably linked to the challenge of limiting anthropogenic impacts on climate by reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. To avoid serious disruption of the climate system and stabilize GHG concentrations, society must move aggressively to avoid emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O and to actively draw down CO2 already in the atmosphere. A new cadre of technically adept professionals is needed to meet these challenges. We describe a new professional Masters degree in greenhouse gas management and accounting at Colorado State University. This effort leverages existing, internationally-recognized expertise from across campus and partners from agencies and industry, enabling students from diverse backgrounds to develop the skills needed to fill this emerging demand.

Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health

PubMed Central

Gutierrez, Kristie S.; LePrevost, Catherine E.

2016-01-01

Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate. PMID:26848673

Meeting the Next Generation Science Standards Through "Rediscovered" Climate Model Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Zhou, J.

2013-12-01

Since the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) Project made its debut in January 2005, over 150 institutions have employed EdGCM software for a variety of uses ranging from short lab exercises to semester-long and year-long thesis projects. The vast majority of these EdGCM adoptees have been at the undergraduate and graduate levels, with few users at the K-12 level. The K-12 instructors who have worked with EdGCM in professional development settings have commented that, although EdGCM can be used to illustrate a number of the Disciplinary Core Ideas and connects to many of the Common Core State Standards across subjects and grade levels, significant hurdles preclude easy integration of EdGCM into their curricula. Time constraints, a scarcity of curriculum materials, and classroom technology are often mentioned as obstacles in providing experiences to younger grade levels in realistic climate modeling research. Given that the NGSS incorporates student performance expectations relating to Earth System Science, and to climate science and the human dimension in particular, we feel that a streamlined version of EdGCM -- one that eliminates the need to run the climate model on limited computing resources, and provides a more guided climate modeling experience -- would be highly beneficial for the K-12 community. This new tool currently under development, called EzGCM, functions through a browser interface, and presents "rediscovery experiments" that allow students to do their own exploration of model output from published climate experiments, or from sensitivity experiments designed to illustrate how climate models as well as the climate system work. The experiments include background information and sample questions, with more extensive notes for instructors so that the instructors can design their own reflection questions or follow-on activities relating to physical or human impacts, as they choose. An added benefit of the EzGCM tool is that, like EdGCM, it helps illustrate the process of doing research on a complex topic, in a way that builds upon earlier experiences in inquiry-based learning. By having students work through a multi-stage process that requires them to plan several steps ahead, through data processing, analysis and interpretation, they learn how to do research in addition to improving their understanding of climate change.

RELATIVE EFFECTS OF OBSERVATIONALLY-NUDGED MODEL METEOROLOGY AND DOWN-SCALED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL METEOROLOGY ON BIOGENIC EMISSIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) participate in a multi-agency examination of the effects of climate change through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2003). The EPA Global Change Rese...

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as par...

A Comparison of Institutional Climates in Higher Education in the United States and South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Juanyce Deanna

2012-01-01

Increasing opportunities and access of historically underrepresented populations to higher education in both the United States and South Africa have proved challenging due to institutional climates that are perceived as unwelcoming and unsupportive. The purpose of this study was to investigate factors relating to institutional climates to uncover…

Evaluation of Authentic Science Projects on Climate Change in Secondary Schools: A Focus on Gender Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dijkstra, Elma; Goedhart, Martin

2011-01-01

Background and purpose: This study examines secondary-school students' opinions on participating in authentic science projects which are part of an international EU project on climate change research in seven countries. Partnerships between schools and research institutes result in student projects, in which students work with and learn from…

Climate Modeling in the Calculus and Differential Equations Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kose, Emek; Kunze, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Students in college-level mathematics classes can build the differential equations of an energy balance model of the Earth's climate themselves, from a basic understanding of the background science. Here we use variable albedo and qualitative analysis to find stable and unstable equilibria of such a model, providing a problem or perhaps a…

A School-University Research Partnership to Identify Disengaged Students: A Descriptive Case Analysis of School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biag, Manuelito D.; Sanchez, Monika A.

2016-01-01

Background/Context: Much of the literature on school-university research partnerships has focused on collaborations that address curriculum, instruction, and leadership. Less scholarly attention has been paid to how practitioners and academics work together to improve school climate. Purpose: We seek to deepen understanding of how educators and…

Responses to salinity in invasive cordgrass hybrids and their parental species (Spartina) in a scenario of sea level rise and climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Salinity is one of the main abiotic factors in salt marshes. Studies rooted to analyzed salinity tolerance of halophytes may help to relate their physiological tolerances with distribution limits in the field. Climate change-induced sea level rise and higher temperatures...

Results of the 2004 Marine Corps Climate Surveys (MCCS): Management Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

of Different Racial/Ethnic Backgrounds Socialize Together During Command Functions...organizational climate of the Marine Corps, equal opportunity and related issues such as sexual harassment and gender discrimination. Responses to the Marine...type of survey, the Marine Corps is able to gain insights into trends occurring in the equal opportunity and sexual harassment areas. The Marine

Teaching citizens: the role of open classroom climate in fostering critical consciousness among youth.

PubMed

Godfrey, Erin B; Grayman, Justina Kamiel

2014-11-01

Building on previous research on critical consciousness and civic development among youth, the current study examined the extent to which an open climate for discussion-one in which controversial issues are openly discussed with respect for all opinions-relates to youth's critical consciousness and whether this association differs for youth from racial/ethnic majority versus minority backgrounds. Critical consciousness consisted of three components: the ability to critically read social conditions (critical reflection), feelings of efficacy to effect change (sociopolitical efficacy) and actual participation in these efforts (critical action), in both the educational and political/community domains. Open classroom climate was operationalized at the classroom rather than individual student level to more accurately draw links to educational policy and practice. Multilevel analyses of the 1999 IEA Civic Education Study, a nationally-representative sample of 2,774 US ninth-graders (50 % female; 58 % white), revealed that an open classroom climate predicted some, but not all, components of critical consciousness. Specifically, open classroom climate was positively related to sociopolitical efficacy in both the educational and political domains and to critical action in the community domain, but was not related to critical reflection. Few differences in these associations were found for youth from racial/ethnic majority versus minority backgrounds. The exception was sociopolitical efficacy in the educational domain: open classroom climate was particularly predictive of sociopolitical efficacy for minority youth. The findings are discussed in regard to previous research on open classroom climate and youth critical consciousness; and implications for future research and educational practice are drawn.

How the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) Has Collaboratively Increased Regional Collective Impacts on Climate Literacy Via Networks of Diverse Stakeholders Engaging in Multiple Reinforcing Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.

2016-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai`i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. PCEP partners include universities, education nonprofits, state or country offices/ministries of education, local ecological nonprofits, and a variety of community organizations. Partners contribute and share expertise in climate science, local ecological knowledge, K-12 education in the Pacific island region, science and environmental education, community college education, learning science, indigenous navigation, and oceanography. Over the past six years, PCEP has engaged with regional school systems and communities in a wide variety of ways that complement and reinforce each other. Highlighted activities include improving country and state climate science education standards; focusing on place-based local ecological knowledge and skills in working with schools and communities; developing and disseminating formal education resources such as books and web resources that focus on local contexts and skills rather than contextually inappropriate mainland the textbooks; developing and implementing professional development for teachers; and supporting local ways of knowing by gathering and sharing local stories of climate change; and promoting an emphasis on climate adaptation strategies that increase resilience of natural environments and community systems.

Climate Change and Air Pollution-Related Health Impacts in the United States: Assessment of Current Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, P.; Fann, N.

2016-12-01

Ambient air pollution can be affected by climate in a variety of ways, which in turn have important implications for human health. Observed and projected changes in climate lead to modified weather pat­terns and biogenic emissions, which influence the levels and geographic patterns of outdoor air pollutants of health concern, including ground-level ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The USGCRP scientific assessment of the human health impacts of climate change concluded with high confidence that climate change will make it harder for any given regulatory approach to reduce ground-level ozone pollution in the future as meteorological conditions become increasingly conducive to forming ozone over most of the United States. Unless offset by additional emissions reductions of ozone precursors, these climate-driven increases in ozone will cause premature deaths, hospital visits, lost school days, and acute respiratory symptoms. The evidence for climate impacts on PM2.5 is less robust than that for ozone. However, one mechanism through which climate change is likely to affect PM2.5 as well as O3 in the United States is via impacts on wildfires. Wildfires emit precursors of both fine particles and O3, which increase the risk of premature death and adverse chronic and acute cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. Climate change is projected to increase the number and severity of naturally occurring wildfires in parts of the United States, increasing emissions of particulate matter and ozone precursors and resulting in additional adverse health outcomes. We present the key results and conclusions from a nationwide assessment of O3 health impacts in 2030, as well as new evidence for respiratory health effects of wildfires in the western United States.

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections.

PubMed

Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

2013-08-27

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow "Earth system" feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or "Charney" climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.

PubMed

Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay

2016-08-01

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

PubMed Central

Kesorn, Kraisak; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Chompoosri, Jakkrawarn; Phumee, Atchara; Thavara, Usavadee; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Siriyasatien, Padet

2015-01-01

Background In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and mean absolute error (MAE). PMID:25961289

The Frustrating Lives of Climate Scientists - 45 Years of Warm, Cold, Wet and Dry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toon, O. B.; Hartwick, V.; Urata, R. A.

2016-12-01

Mariner 9 arrived at Mars in November 1971, where it revealed giant volcanoes and dry river valleys some of which originated from rainfall or runoff. Some geologists think there were oceans, tidal waves, craters that filled to their rims and then overflowed or didn't overflow, and river deltas reaching into the ancient seas and lakes. Climate scientists have stumbled through a 45 year-long chain of failed explanations for these geologic data. CO2 in greater abundance than now is likely involved, but not sufficient. Adding CH4 , CO2 clouds, or SO2 have faltered on further study. Three ideas are still being kicked around, two of which are able to make Mars warm, but may have geologic issues. First, is the idea of adding H2 to the CO2, which warms sufficiently in climate models. However, the large quantities needed are a challenge to outgassing models. Second, is impacts, the largest of which would mobilize most of the water in the regolith. Geologists object that the water from impacts would not last long enough to carve rivers. However, no one has explored the concurrent generation of the regolith by these impacts, which would create a loose, easily erodible surface. Are the rivers all in ancient regolith? If some rivers are in bedrock it would be harder to explain by impacts. Finally, impacts may triggered water/cloud greenhouses. Such a climate state would be long lasting, requires only a modest background atmosphere of carbon dioxide, and would fade away when the carbon dioxide dropped below a few hundred mbar. However, not all climate models have been able to produce such water driven greenhouse warming. In this talk I will outline the history of these climate models, point to evidence that might discriminate between them, describe how the water greenhouse models work or don't work, and suggest some new projects that might be done to decide just how warm and wet Mars may have been.

Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA partners with over 40 data contributors from various government agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations to compile and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change, the significance of these changes, and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. This is the fourth edition of the Climate Change Indicators in the United States report. To summarize and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change.

Background Ozone in Southern China During 1994-2015: Role of Anthropogenic Emission and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Zhang, L.; Poon, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Changes in background ozone concentrations and underlying causes are therefore of great interest to the scientific community and governments. Compared with North America and Europe, long-term measurements of background ozone in China are scarce. This study reports the longest continuous ozone record in southern China measured at a background site (Hok Tsui) in Hong Kong during 1994-2015. The analysis of the 22-year record shows that the surface ozone in the background atmosphere of southern China has been increasing, with an overall Theil-Sen estimated rate of 0.43 ppbv/yr. Compared with our previous results during 1994-2007 (Wang et al., 2009), the average rate of increase has slowed down over during 2008-2015 (0.32 vs. 0.58 ppbv/yr), possibly due to smaller increase or even decrease in ozone precursors emission in mainland China in recent years. The average rates of change show significant seasonal differences with the largest rate occurring in summer (0.32, 0.55, 0.52, and 0.36 ppbv/yr in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively). Monthly mean ozone concentrations at Hok Tsui are compared against an East Asian Monsoon index. It is found that only the summer-time ozone over period 2008-2015 has a strong positive correlation with the index, suggesting that climate might have played an important role in driving the ozone increase observed in summer since 2008. The ozone trend in Hong Kong will be compared to those from other regions in East Asia, and the role of emission changes in Asia will be discussed.

Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

2008-12-01

The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and resource managers to document traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and integrate this knowledge with Western science for crafting adaptation response to climate impacts in rural Native Alaska.

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

State-level climate, anti-discrimination law, and sexual minority health status: An ecological study.

PubMed

Solazzo, Alexa; Brown, Tony N; Gorman, Bridget K

2018-01-01

How social and legal climate influence LGB health is an under-studied topic. In response, this study examines whether the lesbian/gay/bisexual (LGB) climate index and presence of anti-discrimination law show population health significance for U.S. sexual minorities. The LGB climate index uses survey data collected between 2012 and 2013 to gauge states' support of lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals, whereas anti-discrimination law captures any state-level law that makes it illegal to discriminate because of sexual orientation in employment, housing, and public accommodations. We merge these two contextual measures with 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) aggregated, individual-level survey data, from which we generate three measures of state-level rates: excellent self-rated health, routine health care utilization, and health insurance among self-identified lesbian/gay and bisexual adults. We find that the LGB climate index associates positively with rates of excellent self-rated health, routine health care utilization, and health insurance-but only for states with anti-discrimination laws, and only among lesbian/gay adults. Analyses confirm salubrious synergism between a sexually-minority-friendly climate and anti-discrimination law-together these two contextual measures interact to protect lesbian/gay population health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on wildlife habitats in the U.S.

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Curtis H. Flather; Marni Koopman

2008-01-01

Resource managers face many challenges in developing management recommendations for wildlife habitat under a changing climate. Our research results offer states a more consistent and holistic approach to analyzing potential threats of climate change to terrestrial wildlife habitat. This process integrates a review of the scientific literature, the State Wildlife Action...

Students' Perceptions of School Climate in the U.S. and China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Chunyan; Bear, George G.; Chen, Fang Fang; Zhang, Wei; Blank, Jessica C.; Huang, Xishan

2013-01-01

Although the construct of student climate has been studied extensively in the United States, we know little about how school climate is perceived in other countries. With large class sizes yet higher academic achievement and less disruptive and aggressive student behaviors, schools in China present a contrast to many schools in the United States.…

Lichen communities as climate indicators in the U.S. Pacific States.

Treesearch

Robert J. Smith; Sarah Jovan; Bruce McCune

2017-01-01

Epiphytic lichens are bioindicators of climate, air quality, and other forest conditions and may reveal how forests will respond to global changes in the U.S. Pacific States of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. We explored climate indication with lichen communities surveyed by using both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Alaska...

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; John T. Abatzoglou; E. Natasha Stavros; Narasimhan K. Larkin

2014-01-01

Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF >= 50,000 ac~20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p

Awareness of Climate Change and Sustainable Development among Undergraduates from Two Selected Universities in Oyo State, Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agboola, Omowunmi Sola; Emmanuel, Michael

2016-01-01

This study investigated awareness of climate change and sustainable development among undergraduates in two universities: University of Ibadan, Ibadan and Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso in Oyo State of Nigeria. This was aimed at increasing the knowledge of undergraduates on climate change and sustainable development. The study…

Using Dialogue to Engage Agricultural Audiences in Cooperative Learning about Climate Change: A Strategy with Broad Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doll, Julie E.; Eschbach, Cheryl L.; DeDecker, James

2018-01-01

Dialogue with stakeholders has been recognized as an effective educational strategy for addressing complex topics such as climate change. We report here on the Carbon, Energy, and Climate fishbowl discussion series developed by Michigan State University Extension to assist the state's agricultural community in understanding and adapting to the…

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

2016-01-01

To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

78 FR 42491 - Aluminum Extrusions from the People's Republic of China: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-16

...'') imported by Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. (collectively, ``Valeo..., Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court No. 12-00381 (CIT February 13, 2013).\\2... Remand, Valeo, Inc., Valeo Engine Cooling, Inc., and Valeo Climate Control Corp. v. United States, Court...

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban planning process by addressing some of these needs. In this paper we highlight the decision tools available today, discuss their application in selected case studies, and present a gap analysis with opportunities for innovation and future work.

Climate, weather, socio-economic and electricity usage data for the residential and commercial sectors in FL, U.S.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Sayanti; Nateghi, Roshanak

2017-08-01

This paper presents the data that is used in the article entitled "Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States" (Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi, 2017) [1]. The data described in this paper pertains to the state of Florida (during the period of January 1990 to November 2015). It can be classified into four categories of (i) state-level electricity consumption data; (ii) climate data; (iii) weather data; and (iv) socio-economic data. While, electricity consumption data and climate data are obtained at monthly scale directly from the source, the weather data was initially obtained at daily-level, and then aggregated to monthly level for the purpose of analysis. The time scale of socio-economic data varies from monthly-level to yearly-level. This dataset can be used to analyze the influence of climate and weather on the electricity demand as described in Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi (2017) [1].

Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

2016-12-01

While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

State Policy Climates for College Student Success: An Analysis of State Policy Documents Pertaining to College Persistence and Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLendon, Michael K.; Tuchmayer, Jeremy B.; Park, Toby J.

2010-01-01

This article reports the findings of an exploratory analysis of state policy climates for college student persistence and completion. We performed an analysis of more than 100 documents collected from 8 states chosen largely on the basis of their performance on past "Measuring Up" reports. Our analysis of governors' state-of-the-state…

Public Health and Climate Change Adaptation at the Federal Level: One Agency’s Response to Executive Order 13514

PubMed Central

Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change. PMID:24432931

Development and Validation of a Safety Climate Scale for Manufacturing Industry

PubMed Central

Ghahramani, Abolfazl; Khalkhali, Hamid R.

2015-01-01

Background This paper describes the development of a scale for measuring safety climate. Methods This study was conducted in six manufacturing companies in Iran. The scale developed through conducting a literature review about the safety climate and constructing a question pool. The number of items was reduced to 71 after performing a screening process. Results The result of content validity analysis showed that 59 items had excellent item content validity index (≥ 0.78) and content validity ratio (> 0.38). The exploratory factor analysis resulted in eight safety climate dimensions. The reliability value for the final 45-item scale was 0.96. The result of confirmatory factor analysis showed that the safety climate model is satisfactory. Conclusion This study produced a valid and reliable scale for measuring safety climate in manufacturing companies. PMID:26106508

Public health and climate change adaptation at the federal level: one agency's response to Executive Order 13514.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

2014-03-01

Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change.

The Jormungand Global Climate State and Implications for the Neoproterozoic Snowball Paradox (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, D. S.; Voigt, A.; Koll, D.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.

2010-12-01

We present a previously undescribed global climate state, the Jormungand state, that is nearly ice-covered with a narrow (~10-15 degrees of latitude) strip of open ocean near the equator. This state is sustained by internal dynamics of the hydrological cycle and the cryosphere. There is a new bifurcation in global climate climate associated with the Jormungand state that leads to significant hysteresis. We investigate the Jormungand state in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, in multiple atmospheric GCMs coupled to a mixed layer ocean run in an idealized configuration, and we make a simple modification to the Budyko-Sellers model so that it produces Jormungand states. We suggest that the Jormungand state may be a better model for the Neoproterozoic glaciations (~635 Ma and ~715 Ma) than either the hard Snowball or the Slushball models. A Jormungand state would have a large enough region of open ocean near the equator to explain the micropaleontological and molecular clock evidence that photosynthetic eukaryotes thrived both before and immediately after the Neoproterozoic episodes. Additionally, since there is significant hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state, it can explain the cap carbonate sequences, the oxygen isotopic evidence that suggests high CO2 values, and the various evidence that suggests lifetimes for the glaciations of 1 Myrs or more. Since there is not significant hysteresis associated with the Slushball model, the Slushball model cannot explain these observations. Finally, we note that although the Slushball and Jormungand models share the characteristic of open ocean in the tropics, the Jormungand state is produced by entirely different physics, is entered through a new bifurcation in global climate, and is associated with significant hysteresis. Bifurcation diagram of global climate in the CAM global climate model, run with no continents, a 50 m mixed layer with no ocean heat transport, an eccentricity of zero, and annually and diurnally-varying insolation with a solar constant of 94% of present value. Red diamonds denote simulations initiated from ice-free conditions, blue circles denote simulations initiated from the Jormungand state, and green squares denote simulations initiated from the Snowball state. The black curve shows model equilibria, with dotted unstable solution branches (separatrices) and bifurcations drawn schematically.

Temperature-related sex allocation shifts in a recovering keystone species, Pinus palustris

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Dale G. Brockway; Xiongwen Chen

2017-01-01

Background : The possible effects of climate change on sex allocation of a species have recently emerged as a topic of interest, relative to population sustainability via natural regeneration. Also, the universality of pollen limitation for reproduction and how climate may in fl uence it in different taxonomic groups remain to be explored. Aims : The aim of this study...

Can we use the past as a lens to the future? Using historic events to predict regional grassland and shrubland responses to multi-year drought or wet periods under climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Water availability is the primary driver of ecosystem processes in temperate grasslands and shrublands, but uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of change in precipita...

Sierra Nevada forests: Where did they come from? Where are they going? What does it mean?

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Wallace B. Woolfenden

1999-01-01

The prospect of human-induced global warning has received centerstage attention from ecologists concerned about future ecosystems. While such effects deserve critical analysis, they are best understood in the context of natural climate change. Anthropogenic atmospheric effects are often discussed as if background climates were stable (Mahlman 1997). Even in the recent...

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State U

Science.gov Websites

FAQ PRISM Climate Data The PRISM Climate Group gathers climate observations from a wide range of monitoring networks, applies sophisticated quality control measures, and develops spatial climate datasets to reveal short- and long-term climate patterns. The resulting datasets incorporate a variety of modeling

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

PubMed Central

Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

2013-01-01

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature. PMID:23918397

Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative.

PubMed

English, Paul B; Sinclair, Amber H; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-11-01

To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.

Environmental Health Indicators of Climate Change for the United States: Findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative

PubMed Central

English, Paul B.; Sinclair, Amber H.; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-01-01

Objective To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. Data sources We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Data extraction Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. Data synthesis We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. Conclusions A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity. PMID:20049116

Predicting athletes' functional and dysfunctional emotions: The role of the motivational climate and motivation regulations.

PubMed

Ruiz, Montse C; Haapanen, Saara; Tolvanen, Asko; Robazza, Claudio; Duda, Joan L

2017-08-01

This study examined the relationships between perceptions of the motivational climate, motivation regulations, and the intensity and functionality levels of athletes' pleasant and unpleasant emotional states. Specifically, we examined the hypothesised mediational role of motivation regulations in the climate-emotion relationship. We also tested a sequence in which emotions were assumed to be predicted by the motivational climate dimensions and then served as antecedents to variability in motivation regulations. Participants (N = 494) completed a multi-section questionnaire assessing targeted variables. Structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed that a perceived task-involving climate was a positive predictor of autonomous motivation and of the impact of functional anger, and a negative predictor of the intensity of anxiety and dysfunctional anger. Autonomous motivation was a partial mediator of perceptions of a task-involving climate and the impact of functional anger. An ego-involving climate was a positive predictor of controlled motivation, and of the intensity and impact of functional anger and the intensity of dysfunctional anger. Controlled motivation partially mediated the relationship between an ego-involving climate and the intensity of dysfunctional anger. Good fit to the data also emerged for the motivational climate, emotional states, and motivation regulations sequence. Findings provide support for the consideration of hedonic tone and functionality distinctions in the assessment of athletes' emotional states.

Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William

2014-01-01

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

Teaching the Intersection of Climate and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, C.; Ting, M.; Orlove, B. S.

2014-12-01

As the first program of its kind, the M.A. in Climate and Society at Columbia University educates students on how climate affects society and vice versa. The 12-month interdisciplinary Master's program is designed to allow students from a wide variety of backgrounds to gain knowledge in climate science and a deep understanding of social sciences and how they related to climate. There are currently more than 250 alumni applying their skills in fields including energy, economics, disaster mitigation, journalism and climate research in more than a dozen countries worldwide. The presentation will highlight three key components of the program that have contributed to its growth and helped alumni become brokers that can effectively put climate science in the hands of the public and policymakers for the benefit of society. Those components include working with other academic departments at Columbia to successfully integrate social science classes into the curriculum; the development of the course Applications in Climate and Society to help students make an overt link between climate and its impacts on society; and providing students with hands-on activities with practitioners in climate-related fields.

Fifty-Year Record of Glacier Change Reveals Shifting Climate in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2009-01-01

Fifty years of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on glacier change shows recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in three climatic regions of the United States. These long periods of record provide clues to the climate shifts that may be driving glacier change. The USGS Benchmark Glacier Program began in 1957 as a result of research efforts during the International Geophysical Year (Meier and others, 1971). Annual data collection occurs at three glaciers that represent three climatic regions in the United States: South Cascade Glacier in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State; Wolverine Glacier on the Kenai Peninsula near Anchorage, Alaska; and Gulkana Glacier in the interior of Alaska (fig. 1).

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Hibbard, K. A.

2016-12-01

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) will provide key input into the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). The report was initiated in 2016 under the guidance of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) as a new, stand-alone report of the state-of-science relating to climate change and its physical impacts. The report is undergoing peer and public review in late 2016 with the aim for final publication in the fourth quarter of 2017. CSSR will provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. CSSR will serve several purposes for NCA4, including 1) providing an updated detailed analysis of the findings of how climate change is affecting weather and climate across the United States, 2) providing an executive summary that will be used as the basis for the climate science discussion in NCA4, and 3) providing foundational information and projections for climate change, including extremes, to improve "end-to-end" consistency in sectoral, regional, and resilience analyses for NCA4. We will present a summary of the origins and development of CSSR, the writing team, the chapter topics and the relation of CSSR content to NCA4, other assessments and relevance to policy and research communities.

The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, Michael; de Silva-Schmidt, Fenja; Hoppe, Imke; Arlt, Dorothee; Schmitt, Josephine B.

2017-11-01

The annual UN climate summits receive intense global media coverage, and as such could engage local publics around the world, stimulate debate and knowledge about climate politics, and, ultimately, mobilize people to combat climate change. Here we show that, in contrast to these hopes, although the German public were exposed to news about the 2015 Paris summit, they did not engage with it in a more active way. Comparing knowledge and attitudes before, during and after the summit using a three-wave online panel survey (quota sample, N = 1,121), we find that respondents learnt a few basic facts about the conference but they continue to lack basic background knowledge about climate policy. Trust in global climate policy increased a little, but citizens were less inclined to support a leading role for Germany in climate politics. Moreover, they were not more likely to engage personally in climate protection. These results suggest that this global media event had a modest appeasing rather than mobilizing effect.

Empowering High School Students in Scientific Careers: Developing Statewide Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, C.; Swartz, D.

2008-05-01

Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) is a National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center focused on improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models. The Center is divided into three sections including Knowledge Transfer, Research, and Education and Diversity. The Science Education and Diversity mission is to educate and train people with diverse backgrounds in Climate and Earth System Science by enhancing teaching and learning and disseminating science results through multiple media. CMMAP is partnering with two local school districts to host an annual global climate conferences for high school students. The 2008 Colorado Global Climate Conference seeks "To educate students on global and local climate issues and empower them to se their knowledge." The conference is sponsored by CMMAP, The Governor's Energy Office, Poudre School District, Thompson School District, Clif Bar, and Ben and Jerry's Scoop Shop of Fort Collins. The conference seeks to inspire students to pursue future education and careers in science fields. Following an opening welcome from the Governor's Energy Office, Keynote Piers Sellers will discuss his experiences as an atmospheric scientist and NASA astronaut. Students will then attend 3 out of 16 breakout sessions including such sessions as "Hot poems, Cool Paintings, and the treasures of Antiquity of Climate Change", "Mitigation vs Adaptation", "Bigfoot Walks(What Size is our carbon footprint?)" "The Wedges: Reduc ing Carbon Emissions", and "We the People: Climate and Culture of Climate Change" to name a few. Using The Governor's High School Conference on the Environment sponsored by the Wisconsin Center for Environmental Education as a model we are developing statewide partnerships to bring high school students together to look at global climate issues that will impact their future and of which they can be part of the solution through their education and career paths. In addition to attending breakout sessions, students will participate in a Learning Fair where over 100 demonstrations and hands on experiments will be available from everything to "Making a Cloud in a Bottle" to "Making a Difference One Tea Bag at a Time." Students will also bring a poster to showcase their accomplishments in their own schools. The target audience is 400 high school students from across the state of Colorado, specifically targeting underserved populations such as students from rural areas, minority populations and students that are eligible for free and reduced lunch.

Correlation analysis of tree growth, climate, and acid deposition in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Margaret R. Holdaway

1990-01-01

Describes research designed to detect subtle regional tree growth trends related to sulfate (SO4) deposition in the Lake States. Correlation methods were used to analyze climatic and SO4 deposition. Effects of SO4 deposition are greater on climatically stressed trees, especially pine species on dry sites, than on unstressed trees. Jack pine growth shows the...

The Effects of Motivational Climate Interventions on Psychobiosocial States in High School Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bortoli, Laura; Bertollo, Maurizio; Vitali, Francesca; Filho, Edson; Robazza, Claudio

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of task- and ego-involving climate manipulations on students' climate perception and psychobiosocial (PBS) states in a physical education setting. Method: Two subsamples of female students (N = 108, 14-15 years of age) participated in 12 lessons on either a task-or an ego-involving…

Climate change and outdoor recreation participation in the Southern United States

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Neelam Poudyal; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Lynne Seymour; H. Ken Cordell

2014-01-01

In this chapter we begin to assess the potential effects of climate change on future outdoor recreation in the South, a region spanning 13 states from Virginia to Texas (Chapter 1). Our goal is to provide some useful insights about future natural resource-based recreation-an important nontimber product derived from southern forests-in the face of climate change. We...

Contribution of Increasing CO2 and Climate to Carbon Storage by Ecosystems in the United States

Treesearch

David Schimel; Jerry Melillo; Hanqin Tian; A. David McGuire; David Kicklighter; Timothy Kittel; Nan Rosenbloom; Steven Running; Peter Thorton; Dennis Ojima; William Parton; Robin Kelly; Martin Sykes; Ron Neilson; Brian Rizzo

2000-01-01

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink...

Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

John T. Abatzoglou; Renaud Barbero; Crystal A. Kolden; Katherine C. Hegewisch; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Harry Podschwit

2014-01-01

A majority of area burned in the Eastern United States (EUS) results from a limited number of exceptionally large wildfires. Relationships between climatic conditions and the occurrence of very large-fires (VLF) in the EUS were examined using composite and climate-niche analyses that consider atmospheric factors across inter-annual, sub-seasonal and synoptic temporal...

Climate-induced changes in vulnerability to biological threats in the southern United States

Treesearch

Rabiu Olatinwo; Qinfeng Guo; Songlin Fei; William Otrosina; Kier Klepzig; Douglas Streett

2014-01-01

Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make...

77 FR 52293 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Mimulus...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-29

... review. Climate Change Information Provided in the Petition The petitioner states that the western United States will likely suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change, which will affect montane... conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007, p. 52) and RMNP (2007a, p. 6...

Multi-scale modeling of relationships between forest health and climatic factors

Treesearch

Michael K. Crosby; Zhaofei Fan; Xingang Fan; Martin A. Spetich; Theodor D. Leininger

2015-01-01

Forest health and mortality trends are impacted by changes in climate. These trends can vary by species, plot location, forest type, and/or ecoregion. To assess the variation among these groups, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data were obtained for 10 states in the southeastern United States and combined with downscaled climate data from the Weather Research and...

Energy loss, range, and bremsstrahlung yield for 10-keV to 100-MeV electrons in various elements and chemical compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pages, Lucien; Bertel, Evelyne; Joffre, Henri; Sklavenitis, Laodamas

2012-12-01

Even though the United States lacks a national climate policy, significant action has occurred at the local and regional levels. Some of the most aggressive climate change policies have occurred at the state and local levels and in interagency cooperation on specific management issues. While there is a long history of partnerships in dealing with a wide variety of policy issues, the uncertainty and the political debate surrounding climate change has generated new challenges to establishing effective policy networks. This paper investigates the formation of climate policy networks in the State of Nevada. It presents a methodology based on social network analysis for assessing the structure and function of local policy networks across a range of substantive climate impacted resources (water, landscape management, conservation, forestry and others). It draws from an emerging literature on federalism and climate policy, public sector innovation, and institutional analysis in socio-ecological systems. Comparisons across different policy issue networks in the state are used to highlight the influence of network structure, connectivity, bridging across vertical and horizontal organizational units, organizational diversity, and flows between organizational nodes.

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America: Revisions for all taxa from the United States and Canada and new taxa from the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; McFadden, Andrew K.

2015-01-01

This volume of the atlas provides numerous changes, updates, and enhancements from previous volumes. Its geographic coverage is now restricted to Canada and the continental United States, and the source and time period of the climatic data have changed. New variables were added, including monthly values for temperature and precipitation, and measures of interannual variability. The distribution maps for all previously published species were redigitized, some distribution maps were revised, and 148 new species were added from the arid and semiarid western United States. The graphical displays were expanded to illustrate the new climatic variables, and the data tables were modified to provide more detail on the population distributions of plant taxa relative to climatic variables.

Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity.

PubMed

Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R; Selfa, Theresa

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R.; Selfa, Theresa

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

Technical note: Simultaneous fully dynamic characterization of multiple input–output relationships in climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.

We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to thosemore » of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Moreover, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.« less

Technical note: Simultaneous fully dynamic characterization of multiple input–output relationships in climate models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.; ...

2017-02-17

We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to thosemore » of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Moreover, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.« less

Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects. This report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components ...

Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

This draft report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biologi...

Potential climate change impacts on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Ying Tang; Lifeng Luo; Shiyuan Zhong; Julie Winkler; Xindi. Bian

2015-01-01

Researchers at Michigan State University and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station worked on a joint study to examine the possible effects of future global and regional climate change on the occurrence of fire-weather patterns often associated with extreme and erratic wildfire behavior in the United States.

Latent variable method for automatic adaptation to background states in motor imagery BCI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagaev, Nikolay; Volkova, Ksenia; Ossadtchi, Alexei

2018-02-01

Objective. Brain-computer interface (BCI) systems are known to be vulnerable to variabilities in background states of a user. Usually, no detailed information on these states is available even during the training stage. Thus there is a need in a method which is capable of taking background states into account in an unsupervised way. Approach. We propose a latent variable method that is based on a probabilistic model with a discrete latent variable. In order to estimate the model’s parameters, we suggest to use the expectation maximization algorithm. The proposed method is aimed at assessing characteristics of background states without any corresponding data labeling. In the context of asynchronous motor imagery paradigm, we applied this method to the real data from twelve able-bodied subjects with open/closed eyes serving as background states. Main results. We found that the latent variable method improved classification of target states compared to the baseline method (in seven of twelve subjects). In addition, we found that our method was also capable of background states recognition (in six of twelve subjects). Significance. Without any supervised information on background states, the latent variable method provides a way to improve classification in BCI by taking background states into account at the training stage and then by making decisions on target states weighted by posterior probabilities of background states at the prediction stage.

Immigration Policies and Mental Health Morbidity among Latinos: A State-Level Analysis

PubMed Central

Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.; Prins, Seth; Flake, Morgan; Philbin, Morgan; Frazer, Somjen; Hagen, Daniel; Hirsch, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Rationale Despite abundant state-level policy activity in the U.S. related to immigration, no research has examined the mental health impact of the overall policy climate for Latinos, taking into account both inclusionary and exclusionary legislation. Objective To examine associations between the state-level policy climate related to immigration and mental health outcomes among Latinos. Methods We created a multi-sectoral policy climate index that included 14 policies in four domains (immigration, race/ethnicity, language, and agricultural worker protections). We then examined the relation of this policy climate index to two mental health outcomes (days of poor mental health and psychological distress) among Latinos from 31 states in the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a population-based health survey of non-institutionalized individuals aged 18 years or older. Results Individuals in states with more exclusionary immigration policies had higher rates of poor mental health days than participants in states with less exclusionary policies (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.10). The association between state policies and the rate of poor mental health days was significantly higher among Latinos versus non-Latinos (RR for interaction term: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). Furthermore, Latinos in states with more exclusionary policies had 1.14 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.25) times the rate of poor mental health days than Latinos in states with less exclusionary policies. Results were robust to individual- and state-level confounders. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were specific to immigration policies, and not indicators of state political climate or of residential segregation. No relationship was observed between the immigration policy index and psychological distress. Conclusion These results suggest that restrictive immigration policies may be detrimental to the mental health of Latinos in the United States. PMID:28043019

Linking Federal, State, and Local Adaptation Strategies in New York (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2010-12-01

New York City and New York State are leaders in adaptation in the U.S. In 2008 Mayor Bloomberg convened the NYC Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). Also in 2008, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) initiated the Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies (ClimAID), to provide New York State decision-makers with cutting-edge information on its vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and scientific knowledge. The two efforts are working together to develop effective adaptation strategies across multiple jurisdictions. The New York Task Force consists of approximate 40 city, state, and federal agencies, regional public authorities, and private companies that operate, maintain, or regulate critical infrastructure in the region. The NPCC consisted of climate change and impacts scientists, and legal, insurance, and risk-management experts and served as the technical advisory body for the Mayor and the Task Force on issues related to climate change, impacts, and adaptation. In its 2010 report, the NPCC recommended adoption of a risk-based approach to climate change; creation of a monitoring program to track and analyze key climate change factors, impacts, and adaptation indicators; review of relevant standards and codes; inclusion of multiple layers of government and a wide range of public and private stakeholder experts to build buy-in; and formation of crucial partnerships for development of coordinated adaptation strategies. The task now is for these partnerships to create pilot programs that move adaptation from the planning phase to implementation; urban areas can provide critical ‘test-beds’ for such efforts.

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: Implications for future range expansion

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, W.G.; Benson, A.J.; Byers, J.E.

2014-01-01

1. Two dominant drivers of species distributions are climate and habitat, both of which are changing rapidly. Understanding the relative importance of variables that can control distributions is critical, especially for invasive species that may spread rapidly and have strong effects on ecosystems. 2. Here, we examine the relative importance of climate and habitat variables in controlling the distribution of the widespread invasive freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea, and we model its future distribution under a suite of climate scenarios using logistic regression and maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt). 3. Logistic regression identified climate variables as more important than habitat variables in controlling Corbicula distribution. MaxEnt modelling predicted Corbicula's range expansion westward and northward to occupy half of the contiguous United States. By 2080, Corbicula's potential range will expand 25–32%, with more than half of the continental United States being climatically suitable. 4. Our combination of multiple approaches has revealed the importance of climate over habitat in controlling Corbicula's distribution and validates the climate-only MaxEnt model, which can readily examine the consequences of future climate projections. 5. Given the strong influence of climate variables on Corbicula's distribution, as well as Corbicula's ability to disperse quickly and over long distances, Corbicula is poised to expand into New England and the northern Midwest of the United States. Thus, the direct effects of climate change will probably be compounded by the addition of Corbicula and its own influences on ecosystem function.

Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.

PubMed

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J; Humphries, Murray M

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century

PubMed Central

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J.; Humphries, Murray M.

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse. PMID:23115624

Climate Change in Colorado: Findings and Scientific Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J.; Ray, A.; Averyt, K.; Wolter, K.; Hoerling, M. P.

2008-12-01

In response to the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, Governor Ritter issued the Colorado Climate Action Plan (CCAP) in 2007. In support of the adaptation component of the CCAP, the Colorado Water Conservation Board commissioned the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado to prepare the report "Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation." The objective of "Climate Change in Colorado" is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources. Accordingly, the document focuses on observed trends, modeling, attribution, and projections of hydroclimatic variables that are important for Colorado's water supply. Although many published datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus on the state. Consequently, many important analyses for Colorado are lacking. The report summarizes Colorado-specific findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and presents new analyses derived from existing datasets. Here we will summarize the findings of the report, discuss the extent to which conclusions from West-wide studies hold in Colorado, and highlight the many scientific challenges that were faced in the preparation of the report. These challenges include interpreting observed and projected precipitation and temperature variability and trends, dealing with attribution and uncertainty at the state level, and justifying the relevance of climate model projections in a topographically complex state. A second presentation (Ray et al.) discusses the process of developing the report.

Key Findings from the U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop on Development and Application of Downscaling Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Dissen, J.; Easterling, D. R.; Kulkarni, A.; Akhtar, F. H.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. M. K.; Swaminathan, R.; Thrasher, B. L.

2017-12-01

s part of the Department of State U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience (PCR), scientists from NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, Texas Tech University (TTU), Stanford University (SU), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) held a workshop at IITM in Pune, India during 7-9 March 2017 on the development, techniques and applications of downscaled climate projections. Workshop participants from TTU, SU, and IITM presented state-of-the-art climate downscaling techniques using the ARRM method, NASA NEX climate products, CORDEX-South Asia and analysis tools for resilience planning and sustainable development. PCR collaborators in attendance included Indian practitioners, researchers and other NGO including the WRI Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), and NIH. The scientific techniques were provided to workshop participants in a software package written in R by TTU scientists and several sessions were devoted to hands-on experience with the software package. The workshop further examined case studies on the use of downscaled climate data for decision making in a range of sectors, including human health, agriculture, and water resources management as well as to inform the development of the India State Action Plans. This talk will discuss key outcomes including information needs for downscaling climate projections, importance of QA/QC of the data, key findings from select case studies, and the importance of collaborations and partnerships to apply downscaling projections to help inform the development of the India State Action Plans.

Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame - such as human health - may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. Methods U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. Results There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Conclusions Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public. PMID:20515503

Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Tindall, Julia C.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.

2015-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and...

Climate Change and Aquatic Invasive Species (Final Report) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Climate Change and Aquatic Invasive Species. This report reviews available literature on climate-change effects on aquatic invasive species (AIS) and examines state-level AIS management activities. Data on management activities came from publicly available information, was analyzed with respect to climate-change effects, and was reviewed by managers. This report also analyzes state and regional AIS management plans to determine their capacity to incorporate information on changing conditions generally, and climate change specifically. The report is intended for managers and scientists working with AIS to provide them with information on the potential effects of climate change on AIS, strategies for adapting their management to accomodate these environmental changes, and highlight further research needs and gaps.

The Effect of Background Music on Bullying: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziv, Naomi; Dolev, Einat

2013-01-01

School bullying is a source of growing concern. A number of intervention programs emphasize the importance of a positive school climate in preventing bullying behavior. The aim of the presented pilot study was to examine whether calming background music, through its effect on arousal and mood, could create a pleasant atmosphere and reduce bullying…

Application of data on climate extremes for the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, K. T.; Fleishman, E.; Cayan, D. R.; Daudert, B.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

We are improving the scientific capacity to evaluate responses of natural resources to climate extremes. We also are enhancing a platform for derivation of and access to customized climate information for the full extent or any subset of the southwestern United States. Extreme climate can have substantial effects on species, ecological and evolutionary processes, and the health of visitors to public lands. We are working with federal and state managers and with researchers who collaborate with decision-makers to use data on climate extremes to inform resource management. Current applications include sudden oak death, estuarine management, and fine-resolution manipulation of montane vegetation. To facilitate practical use of data on climate extremes, we are screening global climate models on the basis of their realism in representing natural regional patterns and extremes of temperature and precipitation, including those driven by El Niño and La Niña. We are assessing how well each model represents different climate elements. We also are delivering point and gridded observations and downscaled model projections, all at daily and 6 km resolution, on past and future climate extremes. Additionally, we are using the downscaled outputs to drive a hydrologic model and derive multiple probabilistic measures of water availability, flood, and drought. Moreover, we are extending the capacity of the Southwest Climate and Environmental Information Collaborative (SCENIC; wrcc.dri.edu/csc/scenic), a product developed by the Western Regional Climate Center, to provide access to diverse observed and simulated data on regional weather and climate, particularly on extremes.

78 FR 18323 - Notice of Availability of a Draft Programmatic Environmental Assessment of the Proposed United...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

... Proposed United States Regional Climate Reference Network (USRCRN) AGENCY: National Weather Service (NWS..., is proposing to implement, operate, and manage a USRCRN. With other climate monitoring efforts..., high-quality climate data for use in climate-monitoring activities and for placing current climate...

Innovative contracting strategies for combating climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

The state of Maryland has made a strong commitment to combating climate change and reducing : greenhouse gas emissions. This research investigated the state of practice of innovative contracting : solutions to reduce emissions from highway constructi...

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shipp, Allison A.

2012-01-01

On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) for the purpose of integrating DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support strategic adaptation and mitigation efforts on public and private lands across the United States and internationally. The South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) is supported by a consortium of partners that include The University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Additionally, the SC CSC will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interests and expertise in climate science. The primary partners of the SC CSC are the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the Desert, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers, Great Plains, Gulf Coast Prairie, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, and Southern Rockies. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities that address priority partner needs, eliminate redundancies in science, share scientific information and findings, and expand understanding of climate change impacts in the south-central United States and Mexico.

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Two challenges for U.S. irrigation due to climate change: increasing irrigated area in wet states and increasing irrigation rates in dry states.

PubMed

McDonald, Robert I; Girvetz, Evan H

2013-01-01

Agricultural irrigation practices will likely be affected by climate change. In this paper, we use a statistical model relating observed water use by U.S. producers to the moisture deficit, and then use this statistical model to project climate changes impact on both the fraction of agricultural land irrigated and the irrigation rate (m³ ha⁻¹). Data on water withdrawals for US states (1985-2005) show that both quantities are highly positively correlated with moisture deficit (precipitation--PET). If current trends hold, climate change would increase agricultural demand for irrigation in 2090 by 4.5-21.9 million ha (B1 scenario demand: 4.5-8.7 million ha, A2 scenario demand: 9.1-21.9 million ha). Much of this new irrigated area would occur in states that currently have a wet climate and a small fraction of their agricultural land currently irrigated, posing a challenge to policymakers in states with less experience with strict regulation of agriculture water use. Moreover, most of this expansion will occur in states where current agricultural production has relatively low market value per hectare, which may make installation of irrigation uneconomical without significant changes in crops or practices by producers. Without significant increases in irrigation efficiency, climate change would also increase the average irrigation rate from 7,963 to 8,400-10,415 m³ ha⁻¹ (B1 rate: 8,400-9,145 m³ ha⁻¹, A2 rate: 9,380-10,415 m³ ha⁻¹). The irrigation rate will increase the most in states that already have dry climates and large irrigation rates, posing a challenge for water supply systems in these states. Accounting for both the increase in irrigated area and irrigation rate, total withdrawals might increase by 47.7-283.4 billion m³ (B1 withdrawal: 47.7-106.0 billion m³, A2 withdrawal: 117.4-283.4 billion m³). Increases in irrigation water-use efficiency, particularly by reducing the prevalence of surface irrigation, could eliminate the increase in total irrigation withdrawals in many states.

Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Belote, R Travis; Carroll, Carlos; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Michalak, Julia; Williams, John W; Williamson, Matthew A; Aplet, Gregory H

2018-06-21

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.

Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

PubMed

Mills, David M

2009-01-01

Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.

PubMed

Kröel-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus; De Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Estiarte, Marc; Garadnai, János; Kongstad, Jane; Kovács-Láng, Edit; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Liberati, Dario; Ogaya, Romà; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Smith, Andrew R; Sowerby, Alwyn; Tietema, Albert; Penuelas, Josep

2015-03-24

Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer

2016-08-11

Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.

Detecting Evidence of Climate Change in the Forests of the Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Osborne, Jesse D.

2008-01-01

Changes in land use or disturbances such as defoliation by insects, disease, or fire all affect the composition and amount of tree canopy in a forest. These changes are easy to detect. Noticing and understanding the complex ways that global or regional-scale climate change combines with these disturbances to affect forest growth patterns and succession is difficult. This is particularly true for regions where changes in climate are not the most extreme, such as the mid-latitude forests of the Eastern United States. If land and water resources are to be managed responsibly, it is important to know how well the impacts of climate change on these forests can be measured in order to provide the best information possible to respond to any future changes. The goal of this study is to test whether climate-induced changes in forests in the Eastern United States can be detected and characterized using satellite imagery.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Ward-Garrison, Christian D.

2011-01-01

The hydrologic response of different climate-change emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated in 14 basins from different hydroclimatic regions across the United States using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model. This study involves four major steps: 1) setup and calibration of the PRMS model in 14 basins across the United States by local U.S. Geological Survey personnel; 2) statistical downscaling of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 climate-change emission scenarios to create PRMS input files that reflect these emission scenarios; 3) run PRMS for the climate-change emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and 4) evaluation of the PRMS output.This paper presents an overview of this project, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be very different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the climate emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and potential for future work.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Jie Zhu; Ge Sun; Wenhong Li; Yu Zhang; Guofang Miao; Asko Noormets; Steve G. McNulty; John S. King; Mukesh Kumar; Xuan Wang

2017-01-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, ground- water recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wet- land ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrol- ogy, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-...

Introduction to climate change adaptation and mitigation management options

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

2014-01-01

Climate is a critical factor shaping the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the Southern United States. Human induced changes in climate systems have resulted in an increase in the global average air temperature of about 0.8°C since the 1900s (Pachuri and Reisinger 2007). Data from long-term weather stations show that overall, the continental United States...

Commentaries on the National School Climate Standards. Benchmarks to Promote Effective Teaching, Learning and Comprehensive School Improvement. School Climate Brief, Number 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National School Climate Center, 2010

2010-01-01

The majority of Americans have a shared vision that K-12 education needs to support children's ability to love, work and participate effectively in a democratic society. The National School Climate Center, a growing number of State Departments of Education and recently, the United States Department of Education believe that when school communities…

A growing importance of large fires in conterminous United States during 1984-2012

Treesearch

Jia Yang; Hanqin Tian; Bo Tao; Wei Ren; Shufen Pan; Yongqiang Liu; Yuhang Wang

2015-01-01

Fire frequency, extent, and size exhibit a strong linkage with climate conditions and play a vital role in the climate system. Previous studies have shown that the frequency of large fires in the western United States increased significantly since the mid-1980s due to climate warming and frequent droughts. However, less work has been conducted to examine burned area...

Influence of winter season climate variability on snow-precipitation ratio in the western United States

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Shraddhanand Shukla; Ivan Arismendi; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Anne Nolin

2015-01-01

In the western United States, climate warming poses a unique threat to water and snow hydrology because much of the snowpack accumulates at temperatures near 0 °C. As the climate continues to warm, much of the region's precipitation is expected to switch from snow to rain, causing flashier hydrographs, earlier inflow to reservoirs, and reduced spring and summer...

Public perceptions of climate change as a human health risk: surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta.

PubMed

Akerlof, Karen; Debono, Roberto; Berry, Peter; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Rogaeva, Anastasia; Nisbet, Matthew C; Weathers, Melinda R; Maibach, Edward W

2010-06-01

We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78-91%), heat-related problems (75-84%), cancer (61-90%), and infectious diseases (49-62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the human health consequences associated with climate change.

Creating a Library of Climate Change Education Resources for Audiences in the Southeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, J.; McNeal, K. S.; Williams, C. C.; Paz, J. O.; Cho, H. "; Nair, U. S.; Geroux, J.; Guthrie, C.; Wright, K.; Hill, J.

2011-12-01

The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast and promoting scientifically accurate, formal educational resources for the K-12 classroom audience, as well as informal educational resources for audiences such as agriculture, education, leisure, and religious organizations, to name a few. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with the National Geographic Alliances, Departments of Education, and Mississippi Environmental Education Alliance, among others, to determine an effective strategic plan for reaching K-12 audiences. One goal in the strategic plan is to create a catalog of climate change education resources that are aligned to state standards in the SE. Eighty-seven resources from the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (http://cleanet.org) have been aligned with the state education standards for grades six through twelve in the southeast, beginning with science in Mississippi and expanding to include science and math in the remaining SE states. The criteria for aligning the existing resources includes: matching key terms, topics, and lesson activities with the content strands and essential skills included in the state science framework. By developing a searchable database containing climate resources already aligned with state standards, CLiPSE will have made these resources more appealing to educators in the SE, increasing the likelihood of resources being implemented in the classroom. The CLiPSE Climate Science Team has also created an inventory of scientifically sound, informal resources, which will be available for dispersion to appropriate audiences and communities. Cataloged resources, both formal and informal, grouped by a variety of means, to include audience, grade level, and resource origin (e.g. government agency, organization, museum, climate-related websites, etc.), will be made available to the public through the CLiPSE website, promoting accessibility of these resources to the various CLiPSE publics. The process of alignment and vetting will be discussed in this paper, along with the information and education "gaps" that exist for the specific CLiPSE audiences in the SE US.

Public Perceptions of Climate Change as a Human Health Risk: Surveys of the United States, Canada and Malta

PubMed Central

Akerlof, Karen; DeBono, Roberto; Berry, Peter; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Rogaeva, Anastasia; Nisbet, Matthew C.; Weathers, Melinda R.; Maibach, Edward W.

2010-01-01

We used data from nationally representative surveys conducted in the United States, Canada and Malta between 2008 and 2009 to answer three questions: Does the public believe that climate change poses human health risks, and if so, are they seen as current or future risks? Whose health does the public think will be harmed? In what specific ways does the public believe climate change will harm human health? When asked directly about the potential impacts of climate change on health and well-being, a majority of people in all three nations said that it poses significant risks; moreover, about one third of Americans, one half of Canadians, and two-thirds of Maltese said that people are already being harmed. About a third or more of people in the United States and Canada saw themselves (United States, 32%; Canada, 67%), their family (United States, 35%; Canada, 46%), and people in their community (United States, 39%; Canada, 76%) as being vulnerable to at least moderate harm from climate change. About one third of Maltese (31%) said they were most concerned about the risk to themselves and their families. Many Canadians said that the elderly (45%) and children (33%) are at heightened risk of harm, while Americans were more likely to see people in developing countries as being at risk than people in their own nation. When prompted, large numbers of Canadians and Maltese said that climate change can cause respiratory problems (78–91%), heat-related problems (75–84%), cancer (61–90%), and infectious diseases (49–62%). Canadians also named sunburn (79%) and injuries from extreme weather events (73%), and Maltese cited allergies (84%). However, climate change appears to lack salience as a health issue in all three countries: relatively few people answered open-ended questions in a manner that indicated clear top-of-mind associations between climate change and human health risks. We recommend mounting public health communication initiatives that increase the salience of the human health consequences associated with climate change. PMID:20644690

Dynamical States of Low Temperature Cirrus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barahona, D.; Nenes, A.

2011-01-01

Low ice crystal concentration and sustained in-cloud supersaturation, commonly found in cloud observations at low temperature, challenge our understanding of cirrus formation. Heterogeneous freezing from effloresced ammonium sulfate, glassy aerosol, dust and black carbon are proposed to cause these phenomena; this requires low updrafts for cirrus characteristics to agree with observations and is at odds with the gravity wave spectrum in the upper troposphere. Background temperature fluctuations however can establish a dynamical equilibrium between ice production and sedimentation loss (as opposed to ice crystal formation during the first stages of cloud evolution and subsequent slow cloud decay) that explains low temperature cirrus properties. This newly-discovered state is favored at low temperatures and does not require heterogeneous nucleation to occur (the presence of ice nuclei can however facilitate its onset). Our understanding of cirrus clouds and their role in anthropogenic climate change is reshaped, as the type of dynamical forcing will set these clouds in one of two preferred microphysical regimes with very different susceptibility to aerosol.

From the Cheap Seats: One Consideration of School-Based PE's Position in Contemporary American Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCullick, Bryan A.

2014-01-01

Background: As the USA enters the second decade of the twenty-first century, it does so in a polarized political, social, and educational climate heretofore unseen in its relatively short history. Such a climate has implications for what role schools play in American society and especially how school-based physical education (SBPE) may need to…

Student Background, School Climate, School Disorder, and Student Achievement: An Empirical Study of New York City's Middle Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Greg; Weikart, Lynne A.

2008-01-01

This study develops and tests a school disorder and student achievement model based upon the school climate framework. The model was fitted to 212 New York City middle schools using the Structural Equations Modeling Analysis method. The analysis shows that the model fits the data well based upon test statistics and goodness of fit indices. The…

Core Curriculum in Preventing and Reducing School Violence and Vandalism. Course 3: School Climate. Participant Guide and Reference Notebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Human Services, Washington, DC.

This guide, intended for participants in the third course of the National School Resource Network Core Curriculum, contains an activity/content summary for each module of the course, worksheets, and background materials. The purpose of the course is to introduce a conceptual overview and definition of "school climate" with the goal of effecting…

Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Azhoni, Adani; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2018-06-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact water security. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers to that of the perspectives of development agencies, researchers and farmers in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the perspectives of various stakeholders for climate change impacts, current adaptation strategies, knowledge gaps and adaptation barriers, particularly in the context of implementing the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the Sikkim State Government, researchers, consultants, local academia, development agencies and farmers. Using Stakeholders Network Analysis tools, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying strategies, and implementing adaptation. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for water security, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them opportunities. Although important steps are being initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and hence, strengthening the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will pay dividends. Knowledge gaps and the need for capacity building identified in this research, based on the understandings of key stakeholders are highly relevant to both the research community and for informing policy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

The Mars Climate Orbiter is prepared for launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

In the Spacecraft Assembly and Encapsulation Facility-2 (SAEF-2), the Mars Climate Orbiter (background) is moved toward the workstand being readied by technicians (foreground). The Mars Climate Orbiter is heading for Mars where it will primarily support its companion Mars Polar Lander spacecraft, planned for launch on Jan. 3, 1999. After that, the Mars Climate Orbiter's instruments will monitor the Martian atmosphere and image the planet's surface on a daily basis for one Martian year (two Earth years). It will observe the appearance and movement of atmospheric dust and water vapor, as well as characterize seasonal changes on the surface. The detailed images of the surface features will provide important clues to the planet's early climate history and give scientists more information about possible liquid water reserves beneath the surface. The scheduled launch date for the Mars Climate Orbiter is Dec. 10, 1998, on a Boeing Delta II 7425 rocket.

Tracking Expected Improvements of Decadal Prediction in Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckling, E.; Thompson, E.; Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Physics-based simulation models are ultimately expected to provide the best available (decision-relevant) probabilistic climate predictions, as they can capture the dynamics of the Earth System across a range of situations, situations for which observations for the construction of empirical models are scant if not nonexistent. This fact in itself provides neither evidence that predictions from today's Earth Systems Models will outperform today's empirical models, nor a guide to the space and time scales on which today's model predictions are adequate for a given purpose. Empirical (data-based) models are employed to make probability forecasts on decadal timescales. The skill of these forecasts is contrasted with that of state-of-the-art climate models, and the challenges faced by each approach are discussed. The focus is on providing decision-relevant probability forecasts for decision support. An empirical model, known as Dynamic Climatology is shown to be competitive with CMIP5 climate models on decadal scale probability forecasts. Contrasting the skill of simulation models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which a generation of simulation models exploits their physical basis effectively. It can also quantify their ability to add information in the formation of operational forecasts. Difficulties (i) of information contamination (ii) of the interpretation of probabilistic skill and (iii) of artificial skill complicate each modelling approach, and are discussed. "Physics free" empirical models provide fixed, quantitative benchmarks for the evaluation of ever more complex climate models, that is not available from (inter)comparisons restricted to only complex models. At present, empirical models can also provide a background term for blending in the formation of probability forecasts from ensembles of simulation models. In weather forecasting this role is filled by the climatological distribution, and can significantly enhance the value of longer lead-time weather forecasts to those who use them. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models become a regular component of large model forecast intercomparison and evaluation. This would clarify the extent to which a given generation of state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models. It would also clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. No model-based probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate if its own irrelevance; this estimate is likely to increase as a function of lead time. A lack of decision-relevant quantitative skill would not bring the science-based foundation of anthropogenic warming into doubt. Similar levels of skill with empirical models does suggest a clear quantification of limits, as a function of lead time, for spatial and temporal scales on which decisions based on such model output are expected to prove maladaptive. Failing to clearly state such weaknesses of a given generation of simulation models, while clearly stating their strength and their foundation, risks the credibility of science in support of policy in the long term.

A geoscientist in the State Department

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prather, Michael J.

2006-12-01

It must have been in a fit of idealism, à la Jimmy Stewart, that I applied to be a Jefferson Science Fellow (JSF) at the U.S. Department of State in the summer of 2004. The flyer was appealing, offering an opportunity to become "directly involved with the State Department, applying current knowledge of science and technology in support of the development of U.S. international policy. The Jefferson Science Fellowships enable academic scientists and engineers to act as consultants to the State Department on matters of science, technology, and engineering as they affect foreign policy."My own science—elating to ozone depletion, climate change, and aviation environmental impacts—often has been at the science-policy interface. As a result, I have attended governmental and intergovernmental meetings, particularly the international assessments on climate change and ozone depletion. I had even come to know the State Department team on climate negotiations, although I had never been inside the State Department. The appeal of working on the inside of negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was strong—if only to find out what an 'interlocutor' was.

Exploring Resilience of Canadian Rivers to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Paltsev, A.; Accatino, F.; Aldred, D. A.; Guo, J.; Lehner, B.; Ouellet Dallaire, C. O.

2015-12-01

Climate change is leading to a hydrological intensification (i.e., wet areas and periods are becoming wetter; dry areas and periods are becoming drier). Impacts of climate change across Canada will vary, and Canadians would benefit from insights as to where these impacts will occur and what these impacts will be in order to be in a position to effectively respond to these changes. Resilience is a term that is often used - and occasionally misused. We make the distinction between engineering resilience and ecological resilience. Engineering resilience assumes that a system may exist in only one stable equilibrium state, and measures the system's resistance to change. In contrast, ecological resilience assumes that a system may exist in multiple equilibrium states and measures the magnitude of change a system can absorb before shifting from one equilibrium state to another. We adopt the concept of engineering resilience and explore the ability of riverscapes (rivers and their watersheds) to maintain or quickly return to an equilibrium state in response to changing climatic conditions. We use the Budyko curve to examine interactions of climate and water yield in riverscapes across Canada. The Budyko curve describes the relationship between a riverscape's potential evapotranspiration (PET) and its actual evapotranspiration (AET) both normalized by precipitation (P) - i.e., the curve describes AET/P as a function of PET/P. We define elasticity is a measure of a system's ability to maintain this relationship consistent with the Budyko curve as climate changes (ratio of range of PET/P to range of AET/P between different climate periods). We classify each riverscape as resilient (elasticity > 1) or non-resilient (elasticity ≤ 1) in response to climate change - exploring both past and future climate change scenarios. This Budyko approach enables us to characterize the resilience of riverscapes, predict their vulnerability to climate change, and propose management measures that will enable societies to adapt to climate change.

AMOC response to global warming: dependence on the background climate and response timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Jiaxu; Liu, Wei

2015-06-01

This paper investigates the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden doubling of atmospheric CO2 in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3, with a focus on differences under different background climates. The findings reveal that the evolution of the AMOC differs significantly between the modern climate and the last glacial maximum (LGM). In the modern climate, the AMOC decreases (by 25 %, 4 Sv) in the first 100 years and then recovers slowly (by 6 %, 1 Sv) by the end of the 1,500-year simulation. At the LGM, the AMOC also weakens (by 8 %, 1 Sv) in the initial 90 years, but then recovers, first rapidly (by 30 %, 4 Sv) over the following 300 years, and then slowly (by 13 %, 1.6 Sv) during the remainder of the integration. These results suggest that the responses of the AMOC under both climates have a similar initial rapid weakening period of ~100 years and a final slow strengthening period over 1,000 years long. However, additional intermediate period of ~300 years does occur for the LGM, with rapid intensification in the AMOC. Analyses suggest that the rapid intensification is triggered and sustained primarily by a coupled sea ice-ocean feedback: the reduction of meltwater flux in the northern North Atlantic—associated with the remarkable sea-ice retreat at the LGM—intensifies the AMOC and northward heat transport, which, in turn, causes further sea-ice retreat and more reduction of meltwater. These processes are insignificant under modern conditions.

[Prediction of the potential distribution of Tibetan medicinal Lycium ruthenicum in context of climate change].

PubMed

Lin, Li; Jin, Ling; Wang, Zhen-Heng; Cui, Zhi-Jia; Ma, Yi

2017-07-01

To predict the suitable distribution patterns of Lycium ruthenicum in the present and future under the background of climate change, and provide reference for the resources sustainable utilization and GAP standardized planting. The software of Maxent and ArcGis was used to predict the potential suitable regions and grades of L. ruthenicum in China based on the 149 distribution information, climate data of contemporary (1950-2000) and future (20-80 decade of 21 century), and considering of three greenhouse gaseous emission scenario. The results showed that：the suitable distribution regions of L. ruthenicum are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Neimenggu, and Ningxia province in present. In addition, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xizang are also distribution regions.The suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum is 284.506 949×104 km2, accounted for 29.6% of the land area of China.The relatively stable area of the suitable regions accounted for 25.2% of the total suitable region area.Under the background of climate change, compared with contemporary, the total area of suitable region is reducing and moderately suitable area is increasing at different degree at the 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 decade of 21 century. Climate change both can change the total area of suitable regions and habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum. It could provide a strategic guidance for protection, development and utilization of L. ruthenicum though the prediction of potential suitable regions distribution of L. ruthenicum based on the mainly factor of climate change. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Ocean state estimation for climate studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, T.

2002-01-01

Climate variabilities, which are of interest to CLIVAR, involve a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Ocean state estimation (often referred to as ocean data assimilation), by optimally combining observations and models, becomes an important element of CLIVAR.

Application of IRI-Plas in Ionospheric Tomography and HF Communication Studies with Assimilation of GPS-TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arikan, Feza; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Sezen, Umut; Arikan, Orhan; Toker, Cenk; Hakan Tuna, MR.; Erdem, Esra

2016-07-01

International Reference Ionosphere is the most acknowledged climatic model of ionosphere that provides electron density profile and hourly, monthly median values of critical layer parameters of the ionosphere for a desired location, date and time between 60 to 2,000 km altitude. IRI is also accepted as the International Standard Ionosphere model. Recently, the IRI model is extended to the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite orbital range of 20,000 km. The new version is called IRI-Plas and it can be obtained from http://ftp.izmiran.ru/pub/izmiran /SPIM/. A user-friendly online version is also provided at www.ionolab.org as a space weather service. Total Electron Content (TEC), which is defined as the line integral of electron density on a given ray path, is an observable parameter that can be estimated from earth based GPS receivers in a cost-effective manner as GPS-TEC. One of the most important advantages of IRI-Plas is the possible input of GPS-TEC to update the background deterministic ionospheric model to the current ionospheric state. This option is highly useful in regional and global tomography studies and HF link assessments. IONOLAB group currently implements IRI-Plas as a background model and updates the ionospheric state using GPS-TEC in IONOLAB-CIT and IONOLAB-RAY algorithms. The improved state of ionosphere allows the most reliable 4-D imaging of electron density profiles and HF and satellite communication link simulations.This study is supported by TUBITAK 115E915 and joint TUBITAK 114E092 and AS CR 14/001.

Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copeland, Jeffrey H.; Pielke, Roger A.; Kittel, Timothy G. F.

1996-03-01

The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage.

Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

1996-01-01

The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.

Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

2014-10-01

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Engaging Communities Where They Are: New Hampshire's Coastal Adaptation Workgroup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C. P.; Godlewski, S.; Howard, K.; Labranche, J.; Miller, S.; Peterson, J.; Ashcraft, C.

2015-12-01

Rising seas are expected to have significant impacts on infrastructure and natural and cultural resources on New Hampshire's 18 mile open-ocean coastline and 235 miles of tidal shoreline. However, most coastal municipalities in NH lack financial and human resources to even assess vulnerability, let alone plan for climate change. This gap has been filled since 2010 by the NH Coastal Adaptation Workgroup (CAW), composed of 21 regional, state, and federal agencies, businesses, municipalities, academics, and NGOs that bring together stakeholders to discuss climate change challenges and collaboratively develop and implement effective coastal adaptation strategies. Our grassroot efforts serve to nurture existing and build new relationships, disseminate coastal watershed climate assessments, and tap into state, federal, and foundation funds for specific coastal adaptation projects. CAW has achieved collective impact in by connecting federal and state resources to communities by raising money and facilitating projects, translating climate science, educating community members, providing direct technical assistance and general capacity, and sharing success stories and lessons learned. Indicators of success include: 12 coastal communities improved their technical, financial, and human resources for climate adaptation; 80% of the 300 participants in the eleven CAW 'Water, Weather, Climate, and Community Workshops' have increased knowledge, motivation, and capacity to address climate adaptation; $3 million in grants to help communities with climate adaptation; winner of the 2015 EPA Region 1 Environmental Merit Award; and ongoing support for community-led adaptation efforts. In addition, the NH Climate Summit attracts over 100 participants each year, over 90% whom attest to the applicability of what they learn there. CAW also plays a central role in the Coastal Risks and Hazards Commission (established by the state legislature in 2013) to help communities and businesses prepare for the impacts of rising seas and coastal storms.

Integrating Climate Projections into Multi-Level City Planning: A Texas Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Gelca, R.; Baumer, Z.; Gold, G.

2016-12-01

Climate change impacts on energy and water are a serious concern for many cities across the United States. Regional projections from the National Assessment process, or state-specific efforts as in California and Delaware, are typically used to quantify impacts at the regional scale. However, these are often insufficient to provide information at the scale of decision-making for an individual city. Here, we describe a multi-level approach to developing and integrating usable climate information into planning, using a case study from the City of Austin in Texas, a state where few official climate resources are available. Spearheaded by the Office of Sustainability in collaboration with Austin Water, the first step was to characterize observed trends and future projections of how global climate change might affect Austin's current climate. The City then assembled a team of city experts, consulting engineers, and climate scientists to develop a methodology to assess impacts on regional hydrology as part of its Integrated Water Resource Plan, Austin's 100-year water supply and demand planning effort, an effort which included calculating a range of climate indicators and developing and evaluating a new approach to generating climate inputs - including daily streamflow and evaporation - for existing water availability models. This approach, which brings together a range of public, private, and academic experts to support a stakeholder-initiated planning effort, provides concrete insights into the critical importance of multi-level, long-term engagement for development and application of actionable climate science at the local to regional scale.

Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change effects on water resources

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy R. Ford; Stephanie Laseter; Salli Dymond; Ge Sun; Mary Beth Adams; Stephen Sebestyen; John Campbell; Charlie Luce; Devendra Amatya; Kelly Elder; Tamara Heartsill Scalley

2012-01-01

Long-term hydrology and climate data from United States Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFR) provide critical information on the interactions among climate, streamflow, and forest management practices. We examined the relationships among streamflow responses to climate variation and forest management using long-term data. Analysis of climate data from a...

Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change impacts on water resources?

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy R. Ford; Stephanie Laseter; Salli Dymond; GE Sun; Mary Beth Adams; Stephen Sebestyen; John Campbell; Charles Luce; Devendra Amatya; Kelly Elder; Tamara. Heartsill-Scalley

2012-01-01

Long-term hydrology and climate data from United States Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFR) provide critical information on the interactions among climate, streamflow, and forest management practices. We examined the relationships among streamflow responses to climate variation and forest management using long-term data. Analysis of climate data from a...

Climate services for coping with climate change, drought, and extreme heat in the Mexico-U.S. border region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change poses challenges for northern México and the southern United States, including drought, extreme heat, and flooding. To aid society in preparing for climate- and weather-related risks, partners in the North American Climate Services Partnership have initiated several collaborations. Th...

78 FR 12807 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group III Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-25

... on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Programme...-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts, and...

77 FR 59238 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group I Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary: The United States Global... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. The United Nations..., and socio-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential...

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: Seasonal ENSO Impacts on

Science.gov Websites

page National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center , state and local government Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > U.S. Climate and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland

NASA Nice Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

2013-12-01

Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate change education can be beneficial to future learners and general public. The main scope is to increase the amount of STEM knowledge throughout the nations scientific literacy as we are using the platform of climate change. Federal entities which may include but not limited to National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security and Management will serve as resources partners for this common goal of having a more knowledgeable technological savvy and scientific literate society. The presentation will show that incorporating these best practices into elementary and early childhood education undergraduate programs will assist with increasing a enhance scientific literate society. As a measurable outcome have a positive impact on instructional effectiveness of future teachers. Their successfully preparing students in meeting the standards of the Common Core Initiative will attempt to measure across the curriculum uniformly.

Rising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Epstein, Paul R.; Schlesinger, William H.

2009-01-01

Background Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. Objectives We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature. Discussion Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use. Conclusions There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health. PMID:19270781

Climate Voices: Bridging Scientist Citizens and Local Communities across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, K.; Ristvey, J. D., Jr.

2016-12-01

Based out of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) has more than 400 participants across the United States that volunteer their time as scientist citizens in their local communities. Climate Voices experts engage in nonpartisan conversations about the local impacts of climate change with groups such as Rotary clubs, collaborate with faith-based groups on climate action initiatives, and disseminate their research findings to K-12 teachers and classrooms through webinars. To support their participants, Climate Voices develops partnerships with networks of community groups, provides trainings on how to engage these communities, and actively seeks community feedback. In this presentation, we will share case studies of science-community collaborations, including meta-analyses of collaborations and lessons learned.

[The application of climatic therapy in the health resorts of the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus: the current state-of-the-art and the prospects for the further development].

PubMed

Pestereva, N M; Khechumyan, A F; Udovenko, I L; Bekhterev, V N

2016-01-01

The present review summarizes the data published in the domestic and foreign literature concerning the history of climatic therapy, the current concepts of the mechanisms of action of the climatic and weather factors on the human body, the modern therapeutic modalities and technologies for health promotion. We consider not only the achievements but also the problems arising from insufficient knowledge of the impacts of current climate and extreme weather conditions on the state of human health and some disputable issues of the new methods and technologies of climatic therapy. the promising areas of further research and developments pertaining to climatic therapy as practiced under conditions of the Black Sea coast resorts.

Climate change initiatives of state departments of transportation : synthesis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

The WSDOT Public Transportation Division Director requested a synthesis report on the role of state departments of transportation in climate change initiatives. A search of available information has revealed a host of measures underway to reduce gree...

CRSI (Climate Resilience Screening Index) - Development and Application

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a Climate Resilience Screening Index that is applicable at multiple scales for the United States. Those scales include national, state, county and community. In order to explicitly include domains, indicators and metrics addressing environmental, economic and soci...

Mid-21st- century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Rachel A. Loehman

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st- century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains....

The microcomputer scientific software series 9: user's guide to Geo-CLM: geostatistical interpolation of the historical climatic record in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Margaret R. Holdaway

1994-01-01

Describes Geo-CLM, a computer application (for Mac or DOS) whose primary aim is to perform multiple kriging runs to interpolate the historic climatic record at research plots in the Lake States. It is an exploration and analysis tool. Addition capabilities include climatic databases, a flexible test mode, cross validation, lat/long conversion, English/metric units,...

Sensitivity of simulated maize crop yields to regional climate in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Myoung, B.; Stack, D.; Kim, J.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kafatos, M.

2013-12-01

The sensitivity of maize yield to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States (SW US) has been investigated by using a crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and radiation) from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The primary focus of this study is to look at the effects of interannual variations of atmospheric components on the crop productivity in the SW US over the 21-year period (1991 to 2011). First of all, characteristics and performance of APSIM was examined by comparing simulated maize yields with observed yields from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the leaf-area index (LAI) from MODIS satellite data. Comparisons of the simulated maize yield with the available observations show that the crop model can reasonably reproduce observed maize yields. Sensitivity tests were performed to assess the relative contribution of each climate driver to regional crop yield. Sensitivity experiments show that potential crop production responds nonlinearly to climate drivers and the yield sensitivity varied among geographical locations depending on their mean climates. Lastly, a detailed analysis of both the spatial and temporal variations of each climate driver in the regions where maize is actually grown in three states (CA, AZ, and NV) in the SW US was performed.

Has climate change shifted US maize planting times?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Stine, A.; Huybers, P.

2012-12-01

Global warming has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring phenological events across a range of ecosystems. However, the degree to which humans have adapted planting schedules to a changing climate remains an open question; the leading hypotheses for earlier planting are improved hardiness of cultivars and farming equipment. Here we examine the relationship between historical temperature and precipitation from 549 weather stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) with planting schedules from 20 states in the United States Department of Agriculture/National Agriculture Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) database. We construct an empirical model to relate yearly weather conditions to predict planting dates and compare this to the spatial distribution of climate conditions and mean planting times. Evidence for a relationship between climate and planting schedules indicates that planting schedules for US maize have been adapted to yearly variations and overall changes in climatology. As one might expect, hotter temperatures lead to earlier plantings while greater precipitation leads to later planting. These findings serve to indicate extant adaptation between US farmers and climate change, and will aid in forecasting future shifts to planting schedules as climate continues to change. Furthermore, the statistical model should also be useful for estimating planting times for states and years for which records do not otherwise exist.

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

PubMed

Rodda, Gordon H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Reed, Robert N

2011-02-09

Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

Nineteenth Century Long-Term Instrumental Records, Examples From the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, C. J.

2001-12-01

Early instrumental records in the United States, defined as those operating before 1892 which is regarded the period prior to the modern climate record, provide a longer perspective of climatic variability at decadal and interannual timescales. Such reconstructions also provide a means of verification for other proxy data. This paper provides a American perspective of historical climatic research, emphasizing the urgent need to properly evaluate data quality and provide necessary corrections to make them compatible with the modern record. Different fixed observation times, different practices of weather instrument exposures, and statistical methods for calibration are the main issues in applying corrections and conducting proper climatic interpretations. I illustrate several examples on methodologies of this historical climatic research, focusing on the following in the Southeastern United States: daily reconstructed temperature time-series centered on Charleston SC and Natchez MS back to the late eighteenth century, and precipitation frequency reconstructions during the antebellum period for the Gulf Coast and coastal Southeast Atlantic states. Results indicate several prominent extremes unprecedented as compared to the modern record, such as the widespread warm winter of 1827-28, and the severe cold winters of 1856 and 1857. The reconstructions also yield important information concerning responses to past ENSO events, the PNA, NAO, and the PDO, particularly when compared with instrumental data from other regions. A high potential also exists for applying the climate reconstructions to assess historical climatic impacts on society in the Southeast, such as to understand climatic linkages to famous case studies of Yellow Fever epidemics and severe drought.

Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Shanley, James B.

2009-06-01

In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070-2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff +20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (-2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States.

Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leterme, B.

2012-04-01

The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The advantages and weaknesses of using analogue stations are also discussed.

Linking research, education and public engagement in geoscience: Leadership and strategic partnerships (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harcourt, P.

2017-12-01

Addressing the urgent issue of climate change requires mitigation and adaptation actions on individual to global scales, and appropriate action must be based upon geoscience literacy across population sectors. The NSF-funded MADE CLEAR (Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research) project provides a coordinated approach to embed climate change into education programs at the university level, in formal K12 classrooms, and among informal educators. We have worked with state agencies, university systems, non-profit organizations, and community groups to establish and support research-based education about climate change. In this panel I will describe how MADE CLEAR approached the task of infusing climate change education across sectors in the highly diverse states of Delaware and Maryland. I will share the characteristics of our strongest alliances, an analysis of significant barriers to climate change education, and our perspective on the outlook for the future of climate change education.

Reconstructing the past climate at Gale crater, Mars, from hydrological modeling of late-stage lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horvath, David G.; Andrews-Hanna, Jeffrey C.

2017-08-01

The sedimentary deposits in Gale crater may preserve one of the best records of the early Martian climate during the Late Noachian and Early Hesperian. Surface and orbital observations support the presence of two periods of lake stability in Gale crater—prior to the formation of the sedimentary mound during the Late Noachian and after the formation and erosion of the mound to its present state in the Early Hesperian. Here we use hydrological models and late-stage lake levels at Gale, to reconstruct the climate of Mars after mound formation and erosion to its present state. Using Earth analog climates, we show that the late-stage lakes require wetter interludes characterized by semiarid climates after the transition to arid conditions in the Hesperian. These climates are much wetter than is thought to characterize much of the Hesperian and are more similar to estimates of the Late Noachian climate.

Sustained Assessment Metadata as a Pathway to Trustworthiness of Climate Science Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, S. M.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

The Sustained Assessment process has produced a suite of climate change reports: The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, The State Climate Summaries, as well as the anticipated Climate Science Special Report and Fourth National Climate Assessment. Not only are these groundbreaking reports of climate change science, they are also the first suite of climate science reports to provide access to complex metadata directly connected to the report figures and graphics products. While the basic metadata documentation requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, Sustained Assessment products are also deemed Highly Influential Scientific Assessments, which further requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the Sustained Assessment embarked on building a system for not only collecting and documenting metadata to the required standards, but one that also provides consumers unprecedented access to the underlying data and methods. As our process and documentation have evolved, the value of both continue to grow in parallel with the consumer expectation of quality, accessible climate science information. This presentation will detail the how the TSU accomplishes the mandated requirements with their metadata collection and documentation process, as well as the technical solution designed to demonstrate compliance while also providing access to the content for the general public. We will also illustrate how our accessibility platforms guide consumers through the Assessment science at a level of transparency that builds trust and confidence in the report content.

Community Background Reports: Papago Reservation, Sells, Arizona. National Study of American Indian Education, Series I, No. 17, Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackett, Robert; Chilcott, John H.

Number 17 in Series I of the final report of the National Study of American Indian Education describes the small community of Sells, Arizona, in terms of (1) location and climate, (2) sociocultural background, (3) transportation problems, (4) housing problems, (5) governmental influence, (6) recreation, (7) educational opportunities, and (8)…

Bioethics and Public Health Collaborate to Reveal Impacts of Climate Change on Caribbean Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macpherson, C.; Akpinar-Elci, M.

2011-12-01

Interdisciplinary dialog and collaboration aimed at protecting health against climate change is impeded by the small number of scientists and health professionals skilled in interdisciplinary work, and by the view held by many that "climate change won't affect me personally". These challenges may be surmounted by discussions about the lived experience of climate change and how this threatens things we value. Dialog between bioethics and public health generated an innovative collaboration using the focus group method. The main limitation of focus groups is the small number of participants however the data obtained is generalizable to wider groups and is used regularly in business to enhance marketing strategies. Caribbean academicians from varied disciplines discussed how climate change affects them and life in the Caribbean. Caribbean states are particularly vulnerable to climate change because their large coastal areas are directly exposed to rising sea levels and their development relies heavily on foreign aid. The Caribbean comprises about half of the 39 members of the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), and small island states comprise about 5% of global population [1]. Participants described socioeconomic and environmental changes in the Caribbean that they attribute to climate change. These include extreme weather, unusual rain and drought, drying rivers, beach erosion, declining fish catches, and others. The session exposed impacts on individuals, businesses, agriculture, and disaster preparedness. This data helps to reframe climate change as a personal reality rather than a vague future concern. It is relevant to the design, implementation, and sustainability of climate policies in the Caribbean and perhaps other small island states. The method and interdisciplinary approach can be used in other settings to elicit dialog about experiences and values across sectors, and to inform policies. Those who have experienced extreme weather are more concerned about climate change than others [2] and no expertise is needed to discuss such experiences or related values. These are accessible concepts in all disciplines and across socioeconomic levels. Research to further identify and describe values challenged by climate change is needed and can be communicated across disciplines and to the public. The resultant dialog will facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration, public and political debate, and possibly generate behavior change. References 1. Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Accessed July 6, 2011. http://aosis.info/members-and-observers/ 2. Spence A., Poortinga W., Butler C., Pidgeon N.F. Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience. Nature Climate Change. March 2011. Accessed July 6, 2011. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1059.html

Relationship between Organizational Climate, Job Stress and Job Performance Officer at State Education Department

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi Arif; Othman, Zulfadli

2014-01-01

This research aims at finding out the relationship between Organizational Climate, job stress and job performance among State Education Department (JPN) officers . The focus of the research is to determine the job performance of state education department officers, level of job stress among the officers, level of connection between organizational…

The Large-Scale Environment during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 and THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

earlier, Saji et al. (1999) stated that the changes in the state of the climate system associated with the seasonal monsoonal reversals are responsible...western North Pacific basin, in State of the Climate in 2008. To appear in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., July 2009. Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel

Multivariate geostatistical application for climate characterization of Minas Gerais State, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Carvalho, Luiz G.; de Carvalho Alves, Marcelo; de Oliveira, Marcelo S.; Vianello, Rubens L.; Sediyama, Gilberto C.; de Carvalho, Luis M. T.

2010-11-01

The objective of the present study was to assess for Minas Gerais the cokriging methodology, in order to characterize the spatial variability of Thornthwaite annual moisture index, annual rainfall, and average annual air temperature, based on geographical coordinates, altitude, latitude, and longitude. The climatic element data referred to 39 INMET climatic stations located in the state of Minas Gerais and in nearby areas and the covariables altitude, latitude, and longitude to the SRTM digital elevation model. Spatial dependence of data was observed through spherical cross semivariograms and cross covariance models. Box-Cox and log transformation were applied to the positive variables. In these situations, kriged predictions were back-transformed and returned to the same scale as the original data. Trend was removed using global polynomial interpolation. Universal simple cokriging best characterized the climate variables without tendentiousness and with high accuracy and precision when compared to simple cokriging. Considering the satisfactory implementation of universal simple cokriging for the monitoring of climatic elements, this methodology presents enormous potential for the characterization of climate change impact in Minas Gerais state.

Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Sonya A.

2011-01-01

What is a Climate Science Center? On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs), which will integrate DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support adaptation and mitigation efforts on both public and private lands, across the United States and internationally.The Southeast CSC, hosted by NC State University (NCSU), will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and Federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interest and expertise in climate science. The primary partner for the Southeast CSC will be the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) in the Southeast, including the Appalachian, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, Gulf Coast Prairie, Peninsular Florida, and the South Atlantic. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities, addressing priority partner needs, minimizing redundancies in science, sharing scientific findings, and expanding understanding of climate change impacts in the Southeast.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

PubMed

Cody, Emily M; Reagan, Andrew J; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

2015-01-01

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

Through the minefield: teaching climate change in a misinformation-rich environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.; Cook, J.; Schuenemann, K. C.; Mandia, S. A.; Cowtan, K.; Nuccitelli, D.

2016-12-01

It is now widely accepted that students enter science classrooms with their own, often erroneous, pre-existing models of basic scientific concepts. These misconceptions can interfere with student learning. However, the science of climate change is perhaps distinctive in that a deliberate effort has been undertaken by a variety of individuals and institutions to promulgate and perpetuate misconceptions. Both formal and informal efforts to communicate the science of climate change must therefore contend with the effects of these misconceptions, which may be passionately held and in strong opposition to the findings of peer-reviewed research. This presentation reports on the current state of research on misinformation and misconceptions; identifies common mistakes made in attempting to address misconceptions; and details a model which can help to avoid making most, if not all, of these common mistakes. In sum, research in cognitive psychology has shown that misconceptions are extraordinarily difficult to remove, with individuals commonly rejecting information that does not fit with their existing mental models. Attempts to address misconceptions directly can backfire if too much emphasis is placed on the misconception (i.e. leading with the myth) or by reinforcing the misconception at the expense of more accurate explanations (the familiarity backfire effect). Thus, a preferred approach involves a "myth sandwich" of facts followed by myth, followed by an explanation of how the myth distorts the facts. The misconception is therefore sandwiched between facts. This approach has been tested in a widely subscribed MOOC (Denial 101X, by Cook et al., 2015), and a textbook (Bedford and Cook, 2016). This presentation provides fundamental background on effective climate change myth debunking, and will include preliminary data regarding the efficacy of the "myth sandwich" approach.

Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

PubMed Central

Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

2015-01-01

Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

Global Climate Anomalies and Potential Infectious Disease Risks: 2014-2015

PubMed Central

Chretien, Jean-Paul; Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer; Britch, Seth; Sanchez, Jose L.; Halbach, Alaina C.; Tucker, Compton; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2015-01-01

Background: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014 and winter 2015, El Niño Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, assessed likely El Niño development during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, persisting into spring 2015. Methods: We identified geographic regions where environmental conditions may increase infectious disease transmission if the predicted El Niño occurs using El Niño indicators (Sea Surface Temperature [SST], Outgoing Longwave Radiation [OLR], and rainfall anomalies) and literature review of El Niño-infectious disease associations. Results: SSTs in the equatorial Pacific and western Indian Oceans were anomalously elevated during August-October 2014, consistent with a developing weak El Niño event. Teleconnections with local climate is evident in global precipitation patterns, with positive OLR anomalies (drier than average conditions) across Indonesia and coastal southeast Asia, and negative anomalies across northern China, the western Indian Ocean, central Asia, north-central and northeast Africa, Mexico/Central America, the southwestern United States, and the northeastern and southwestern tropical Pacific. Persistence of these conditions could produce environmental settings conducive to increased transmission of cholera, dengue, malaria, Rift Valley fever, and other infectious diseases in regional hotspots as during previous El Niño events. Discussion and Conclusions: The current development of weak El Niño conditions may have significant potential implications for global public health in winter 2014-spring 2015. Enhanced surveillance and other preparedness measures in predicted infectious disease hotspots could mitigate health impacts. PMID:25685635

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching reactions, carbonate precipitation, and clay formation.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

PubMed Central

Souza, Thiago V.; Alves, Maria Alice S.; Crouzeilles, Renato

2018-01-01

Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies. PMID:29844952

Climate and Salmon Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The Role and Usability of Seasonal Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, Roger S.; Redmond, Kelly T.

1997-03-01

The Pacific Northwest is dependent on the vast and complex Columbia River system for power production, irrigation, navigation, flood control, recreation, municipal and industrial water supplies, and fish and wildlife habitat. In recent years Pacific salmon populations in this region, a highly valued cultural and economic resource, have declined precipitously. Since 1980, regional entities have embarked on the largest effort at ecosystem management undertaken to date in the United States, primarily aimed at balancing hydropower demands with salmon restoration activities. It has become increasingly clear that climatically driven fluctuations in the freshwater and marine environments occupied by these fish are an important influence on population variability. It is also clear that there are significant prospects of climate predictability that may prove advantageous in managing the water resources shared by the long cast of regional interests. The main thrusts of this study are 1) to describe the climate and management environments of the Columbia River basin, 2) to assess the present degree of use and benefits of available climate information, 3) to identify new roles and applications made possible by recent advances in climate forecasting, and 4) to understand, from the point of view of present and potential users in specific contexts of salmon management, what information might be needed, for what uses, and when, where, and how it should be provided. Interviews were carried out with 32 individuals in 19 organizations involved in salmon management decisions. Primary needs were in forecasting runoff volume and timing, river transit times, and stream temperatures, as much as a year or more in advance. Most respondents desired an accuracy of 75% for a seasonal forecast. Despite the significant influence of precipitation and its subsequent hydrologic impacts on the regional economy, no specific use of the present climate forecasts was uncovered. Understanding the limitations to information use forms a major component of this study. The complexity of the management environment, the lack of well-defined linkages among potential users and forecasters, and the lack of supplementary background information relating to the forecasts pose substantial barriers to future use of forecasts. Recommendations to address these problems are offered. The use of climate information and forecasts to reduce the uncertainty inherent in managing large systems for diverse needs bears significant promise.

Power politics: National energy strategies of the nuclear newly independent states of Armenia, Lithuania and Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabonis-Chafee, Theresa Marie

The successor states of Armenia, Lithuania and Ukraine arrived at independence facing extraordinary challenges in their energy sectors. Each state was a net importer, heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, mostly from Russia. Each state also inherited a nuclear power complex over which it had not previously exercised full control. In the time period 1991--1996, each state attempted to impose coherence on the energy sector, selecting a new course for the pieces it had inherited from a much larger, highly integrated energy structure. Each state attempted to craft national energy policies in the midst of severe supply shocks and price shocks. Each state developed institutions to govern its nuclear power sector. The states' challenges were made even greater by the fact that they had few political or economic structures necessary for energy management, and sought to create those structures at the same time. This dissertation is a systematic, non-quantitative examination of how each state's energy policies developed during the 1991--1996 time period. The theoretical premise of the analysis (drawn from Statist realism) is that systemic variables---regional climate and energy vulnerability---provide the best explanations for the resulting energy policy decisions. The dependent variable is defined as creation and reform of energy institutions. The independent variables include domestic climate, regional climate, energy vulnerability and transnational assistance. All three states adopted rhetoric and legislation declaring energy a strategic sector. The evidence suggests that two of the states, Armenia and Lithuania, which faced tense regional climates and high levels of energy vulnerability, succeeded in actually treating energy strategically, approaching energy as a matter of national security or "high politics." The third state, Ukraine, failed to do so. The evidence presented suggests that the systemic variables (regional climate and energy vulnerability) provided a more favorable environment for Ukraine, one in which the state attempted reform of the sector, but not as a concerted national security issue.

Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

2014-12-01

Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kenji; Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, Sandy

2015-04-01

The CMIP5 model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased raditative forcing include enhanced land-ocean contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responses in warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of CMIP5 model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states. We also show the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms control these large-scale responses of the climate system across multiple states.

The Social Environment of Schools and Adolescent Nutrition: Associations between the School Nutrition Climate and Adolescents' Eating Behaviors and Body Mass Index

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cvjetan, Branko; Utter, Jennifer; Robinson, Elizabeth; Denny, Simon

2014-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the association between the school nutrition climate and students' eating behaviors and body mass index (BMI). Methods: Data were collected as part of Youth'07, a nationally representative health survey of high school students in New Zealand. Overall, 9107 randomly selected students from 96…

Alternative Fuels Data Center

Science.gov Websites

Climate Change Action Plan The Rhode Island Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council (Council ) and the State Chief Resiliency Officer will develop a statewide Action Plan to Stand Up to Climate

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

2014-12-02

Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators and northward range expansion was predicted for the future with climate change. However, current and future predicted geographic distributions of Ae. albopictus varied amongst the climatic indicators used. Further field studies are needed to assess which climatic indicator is the most accurate in predicting regions suitable for Ae. albopictus survival in North America.

Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

Physico-chemical characterization of Mediterranean background aerosol at the Capogranitola observatory (Sicily)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinaldi, Matteo; Gilardoni, Stefania; Paglione, Marco; Sandrini, Silvia; Decesari, Stefano; Zanca, Nicola; Marinoni, Angela; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Bonasoni, Paolo; Ielpo, Piera; Fossum, Kirsten; Gobbi, Gian Paolo; Facchini, Maria Cristina

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean basin is characterized by elevated aerosol amounts and co-existence of different aerosol types, both natural and anthropogenic, while it is one of the most climatically sensitive areas. Therefore, it offers ideal conditions for studying aerosol processes and aerosol-climate interactions. An intensive aerosol physico-chemical characterization campaign was held at the Environmental-Climatic Observatory at Capo Granitola (Sicily; 37.5753° N, 12.6595° E) during April 2016, under the framework of the project Air-Sea Lab. The Observatory is located at the coast-line, facing the Strait of Sicily, and is part of the national I-AMICA network (http://www.i-amica.it/i-amica/?lang=en). Sub-micrometer aerosol chemical composition was measured by high resolution time of flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), for the first time at Capogranitola. Sea-salt concentration was estimated from AMS measurements following Ovadnevaite et al. (2012). For a complete mass closure of the submicron aerosol, black carbon (BC) concentration was derived from multiangle absorption photometer (MAAP) measurements. Positive matrix factorization was deployed to investigate organic aerosol (OA) sources at the site. Aerosol chemical composition confirms that Capogranitola is a representative background site, with generally low contribution of BC and nitrate and highly oxidized OA. In particular, aerosol sampled in the marine sector (130-310°) is less affected by local sources and it is likely representative of the central Mediterranean background. Aerosol in background conditions is dominated by sulfate and OA (37% and 31%), followed by ammonium (12%), sea-salt (10%), BC (6%) and nitrate (3%). The average reconstructed sub-micrometer aerosol mass in background conditions is 3.7±2.3 μg m-3. OA source apportionment shows a minor contribution from primary sources, with hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), from fossil fuel combustion, contributing for 3% and biomass burning OA (BBOA) for 2%. Oxidized OA (OOA) dominates the rest of OA mass. In particular, OOA1 and OOA2 (70% in total, OM:OC ˜ 2.5) represent the result of prolonged atmospheric processing of OA, while OOA3 (25%, OM:OC ˜ 2.0) clearly represents fresher inputs of OOA from land. Investigation of HOA and BC time trends suggests that HOA in background conditions may be strongly contributed by ship traffic more than by land sources. The representativity of the background aerosol collected at Capogranitola will be discussed by comparing with measurements performed in parallel at the other I-AMICA southern Italy coastal stations and with those acquired in a subsequent cruise (May-June 2016) around the Italian Peninsula. Aerosol climate relevant properties, in relation with chemical composition, will be also presented and discussed. Ovadnevaite J. et al. (2012), J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16201.

Climate change and the water cycle: A new southwest regional climate hub curriculum unit for 6th-12th grade students

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As climate change intensifies, increased temperatures and altered precipitation will make water, a limited resource in the arid southwestern United States, even scarcer in many locations. The USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub (SWRCH) developed Climate Change and the Water Cycle, an engaging and sc...

The Meriden School Climate Survey-Student Version: Preliminary Evidence of Reliability and Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gage, Nicholas A.; Larson, Alvin; Chafouleas, Sandra M.

2016-01-01

School climate has been linked with myriad positive student outcomes and the measurement of school climate is widely advocated at the national and state level. However, districts have little guidance about how to define and measure school climate. This study examines the psychometric properties of a district-developed school climate measure that…

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brierley, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Dolan, Aisling; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Fischer, Hubertus; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Peltier, W. Richard; Phipps, Steven J.; Roche, Didier M.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tarasov, Lev; Valdes, Paul J.; Zhang, Qiong; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

Effect of latitude on the rate of change in incidence of Lyme disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Greer, Amy L.

2013-01-01

Background Tick-borne illnesses represent an important class of emerging zoonoses, with climate change projected to increase the geographic range within which tick-borne zoonoses might become endemic. We evaluated the impact of latitude on the rate of change in the incidence of Lyme disease in the United States, using publicly available data. Methods We estimated state-level year-on-year incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for Lyme disease for the period 1993 to 2007 using Poisson regression methods. We evaluated between-state heterogeneity in IRRs using a random-effects meta-analytic approach. We identified state-level characteristics associated with increasing incidence using random-effects meta-regression. Results The incidence of Lyme disease in the US increased by about 80% between 1993 and 2007 (IRR per year 1.049, 95% CI [confidence interval] 1.048 to 1.050). There was marked between-state heterogeneity in the average incidence of Lyme disease, ranging from 0.008 per 100 000 person-years in Colorado to 75 per 100 000 in Connecticut, and significant between-state heterogeneity in temporal trends (p < 0.001). In multivariable meta-regression models, increasing incidence showed a linear association with state latitude and population density. These 2 factors explained 27% of the between-state variation in IRRs. No independent association was identified for other state-level characteristics. Interpretation Lyme disease incidence increased in the US as a whole during the study period, but the changes were not uniform. Marked increases were identified in northern-most states, whereas southern states experienced stable or declining rates of Lyme disease. PMID:25077101

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Reconstructing the 20th century high-resolution climate of the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinapoli, Steven M.; Misra, Vasubandhu

2012-10-01

We dynamically downscale the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) to a 10-km grid resolution from 1901 to 2008 over the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico using the Regional Spectral Model. The downscaled data set, which we call theFlorida Climate Institute-Florida State University Land-Atmosphere Reanalysis for theSoutheastern United States at 10-km resolution (FLAReS1.0), will facilitate the study of the effects of low-frequency climate variability and major historical climate events on local hydrology and agriculture. To determine the suitability of the FLAReS1.0 downscaled data set for any subsequent applied climate studies, we compare the annual, seasonal, and diurnal variability of temperature and precipitation in the model to various observation data sets. In addition, we examine the model's depiction of several meteorological phenomena that affect the climate of the region, including extreme cold waves, summer sea breezes and associated convective activity, tropical cyclone landfalls, and midlatitude frontal systems. Our results show that temperature and precipitation variability are well-represented by FLAReS1.0 on most time scales, although systematic biases do exist in the data. FLAReS1.0 accurately portrays some of the major weather phenomena in the region, but the severity of extreme weather events is generally underestimated. The high resolution of FLAReS1.0 makes it more suitable for local climate studies than the coarser 20CR.

The Climate Science Special Report: Summary of Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.

2017-12-01

As a prelude to the 4th National Climate Assessment, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is being developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. To summarize some of the findings, the science is clear—the climate on our planet, including the United States, is changing, changing much more rapidly than occurs naturally, and it is happening primarily because of human activities, especially from our use of fossil fuels but also from land use change. Observational evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Documented changes include surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; and rising sea level. Severe weather is becoming more intense. Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally. All of these trends are expected to continue. The Earth's climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely (95% or greater likelihood) that human activities have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. This presentation summarizes key findings from the CSSR.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PubMed

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Twitter Analytics: Are the U.S. Coastal Regions Prepared for Climate Change in 2017?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singleton, S. L.; Kumar, S.

2017-12-01

According to the U.S. National Climate Assessment, the Southeast Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States are particularly susceptible to sea level rise, heat waves, hurricanes and less accessibility to clean water due to climate change. This is because of the extreme variation of topography in these two regions. Preparation for climate change consequences can only occur with conversation, which is a method of bringing awareness to the issue. Over the past decade, social media has taken over the spectrum of information exchange in the United States. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a field that is emerging with the growth in popularity of social media. SNA is the practice of analyzing trends in volume and opinion of a population of social media users. Twitter, one popular social media platform, is one of the largest microblogging sites in the world, and it provides an abundance of data related to the trending topics such as climate change. Twitter analytics is a type of SNA performed on data from the tweets of Twitter users. In this work, Twitter analytics is performed on the data generated from the Twitter users in the United States, who were talking about climate change, global warming and/or CO2, over the course of one year (July 2016 - June 2017). Specifically, a regional comparative analysis on the coastal U.S. regions was conducted to recognize which region(s) is/are falling behind on the conversation about climate change. Sentiment analysis was also performed to understand the trends in opinion about climate change that vary over time. Experimental results determined that the southeast coast of the United States is deficient in their discussion about climate change compared to the other coastal regions. Igniting the conversation about this issue in these regions will mitigate the disasters due to climate change by increasing awareness in the people of these regions so they can properly prepare.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Background sampling and transferability of species distribution model ensembles under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturbide, Maialen; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

2018-07-01

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) constitute an important tool to assist decision-making in environmental conservation and planning. A popular application of these models is the projection of species distributions under climate change conditions. Yet there are still a range of methodological SDM factors which limit the transferability of these models, contributing significantly to the overall uncertainty of the resulting projections. An important source of uncertainty often neglected in climate change studies comes from the use of background data (a.k.a. pseudo-absences) for model calibration. Here, we study the sensitivity to pseudo-absence sampling as a determinant factor for SDM stability and transferability under climate change conditions, focusing on European wide projections of Quercus robur as an illustrative case study. We explore the uncertainty in future projections derived from ten pseudo-absence realizations and three popular SDMs (GLM, Random Forest and MARS). The contribution of the pseudo-absence realization to the uncertainty was higher in peripheral regions and clearly differed among the tested SDMs in the whole study domain, being MARS the most sensitive - with projections differing up to a 40% for different realizations - and GLM the most stable. As a result we conclude that parsimonious SDMs are preferable in this context, avoiding complex methods (such as MARS) which may exhibit poor model transferability. Accounting for this new source of SDM-dependent uncertainty is crucial when forming multi-model ensembles to undertake climate change projections.

Change in seasonality in the southwest tropical Pacific during the Holocene: a data -model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correge, T.; Deschamps, C.; Duprey, N.; Pujol, N.; Braconnot, P.; Charlier, K.; Lazareth, C. E.; Le Cornec, F.; Malaizé, B.

2012-12-01

Our ability to successfully predict future climate change relies heavily on the improvement of climate models. One way to do so is to compare model outputs with paleodata. The aim of the French ELPASO program (El Niño in the Past: Simulations and Observations) is to conduct such comparisons in the tropics to study the evolution of ENSO in the late Pleistocene, and more particularly during the Holocene, and the link to the background climate state (including the seasonal cycle). We generated multi-decadal time series of SST derived from Sr/Ca analyses of massive Porites corals from Vanuatu dating from 10 ka, 6.8 ka, 6.2 ka and 4.2 ka. For each time series, the mean seasonal cycle was calculated and compared to simulations from the IPSL-CM4 model (Braconnot et al., 2012; Luan et al., 2012). When insolation parameters (in particular precession) are taken into account for the 9.5 ka and 6 ka simulations, the model predicts that the seasonal cycle should be reduced in the southern hemisphere and enhanced in the northern hemisphere during the early and mid Holocene. In contrast, coral data from Vanuatu indicate enhanced mean seasonal cycles at 10 ka, 6.8 ka and 6.2 ka. The coral dating from 4.2 ka is the only one showing a reduced seasonal cycle compared to the present. Various scenarios will be proposed to reconcile this discrepancy. Braconnot, P. et al. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1081-1092, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1029-x, 2012. Luan, Y. et al. 2012. Early and mid-Holocene climate in the tropical Pacific: seasonal cycle and interannual variability induced by insolation changes. Clim. Past, 8, 1093-1108 ; doi:10.5194/cp-8-1093-2012

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate or land use.

PubMed

Dempsey, Rachael; Fisher, Ann

2005-12-01

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.

Mountain Climates on the Move: Implications for Past and Future Vegetation Shifts in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wason, J. W., III; Dovciak, M.; Bevilacqua, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change in the northeastern United States is expected to shift climatic (temperature) envelopes for spruce-fir forests upslope and northward decreasing their area in the region by 2100. Coarse scale landscape models however, may not incorporate heterogeneity in climatic conditions in mountains that can create climatic refugia for species in high-elevation spruce-fir forests. To determine spatial and temporal trends in climate of mountain spruce-fir forests we measured microclimate at 98 forest plots in 2012 and 2013 on 12 mountains in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. By linking regional climate trends with our spatial climate data we calculated elevational shifts in temperature envelopes during the last 50 years. Additionally we linked our spatial dataset to a range of future climate conditions for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (1 to 5°C warming). We hypothesized that climates have already changed to an extent that spruce-fir forests should begin to respond and that future climate conditions may shift suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests beyond their current range. We found that regional climate change over the last 50 years has resulted in warming of 0.66 and 1.62°C for average annual daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the region. When linked to our spatial microclimate model, this warming results in a 100 (Tmax) and 312m (Tmin) upslope shift in temperature envelopes. Future climate projections suggest that by 2100 Tmax may shift upslope between 152 and 758m for the 1 and 5°C scenarios respectively, while Tmin may shift upslope between 192 and 962m. Spruce-fir forests typically occupy an elevation range of ~500m suggesting that the climate experienced in these forests 50 years ago may not be found within their elevation range by 2100. These results are discussed in the context of responses of tree populations and growth rates observed along the elevation gradients of northeastern United States.

Managing for delicious ecosystem service under climate change: can United States sugar maple (Acer saccharum) syrup production be maintained in a warming climate?

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson

2017-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is a highly valued tree in United States (US) and Canada, and its sap when collected from taps and concentrated, makes a delicious syrup. Understanding how this resource may be impacted by climate change and other threats is essential to continue management for maple syrup into the future. Here, we evaluate the current...

The story of rising voices: Facilitating collaboration between indigenous and western ways of knowing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Lazrus, Heather; Bennett, Shiloh-Kay; Chief, Karletta; Dhillon, Carla May; Gough, Bob; Kruger, Linda; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Petrovic, Stefan; Whyte, Kyle P.; Companion, Michele; Chaiken, Miriam S.

2016-01-01

Indigenous community self-determination, cultures, and ways of life are at high risk from climate change impacts and ecological dispossession. Partnerships between experts with backgrounds in Indigenous and western knowledge may be productive and effective ways to reduce vulnerability and foster resilience. This chapter examines collaborations among scientific and Native American, Alaska Native, and Pacific Island communities to support climate solutions. We draw examples from the "Rising Voices: Collaborative Science with Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Solutions" program (Rising Voices) to examine how boundary organizations function cross-culturally to increase communities' adaptive capacity through knowledge exchange, as well as building the decision-making capacity needed to exercise sovereignty and make adaptive decisions in a changing climate.

A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

issues related to climate change , focusing primarily on its economic aspects. The study draws from numerous published sources to summarize the current...state of climate science and provide a conceptual framework for addressing climate change as an economic problem. It also examines public policy

Practical Application of Model-based Programming and State-based Architecture to Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horvath, Gregory; Ingham, Michel; Chung, Seung; Martin, Oliver; Williams, Brian

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation to develop models from systems engineers that accomplish mission objectives and manage the health of the system is shown. The topics include: 1) Overview; 2) Motivation; 3) Objective/Vision; 4) Approach; 5) Background: The Mission Data System; 6) Background: State-based Control Architecture System; 7) Background: State Analysis; 8) Overview of State Analysis; 9) Background: MDS Software Frameworks; 10) Background: Model-based Programming; 10) Background: Titan Model-based Executive; 11) Model-based Execution Architecture; 12) Compatibility Analysis of MDS and Titan Architectures; 13) Integrating Model-based Programming and Execution into the Architecture; 14) State Analysis and Modeling; 15) IMU Subsystem State Effects Diagram; 16) Titan Subsystem Model: IMU Health; 17) Integrating Model-based Programming and Execution into the Software IMU; 18) Testing Program; 19) Computationally Tractable State Estimation & Fault Diagnosis; 20) Diagnostic Algorithm Performance; 21) Integration and Test Issues; 22) Demonstrated Benefits; and 23) Next Steps

Healthy Air Outdoors

MedlinePlus

... up the air are enforced. Learn more Climate Change Climate change threatens the health of millions of people, with ... What Makes Air Unhealthy Fighting for Healthy Air Climate Change Emergencies & Natural Disasters State of the Air Ask ...

Effects of Climate Changes and Pollution with Heavy Metals on the Transformation of Carbon Compounds in Different Soil Types of Agroecosystems in the Forest-Steppe of Baikal Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomazkina, L. V.; Semenova, Yu. V.

2018-05-01

The results of long-term (1992-2005) monitoring of the carbon compounds transformation in soils of forest- steppe agroecosystems polluted by heavy metals in the Baikal region in the years different from the "climatic norm" are discussed. The influence of environmental factors on the functioning of microbial community was estimated by the Cmicr content and CO2 emission. The changes in the ecophysiological parameters (Cmicr/Corg and C-CO2/Cmicr, mg/(g h) related to the availability of the substrate and intensity of carbon (re)immobilization in different soils revealed the differences in the formation of a stable microbial community dependent on the environmental factors, especially in anomalous years. The use of a systemic approach and analysis of the carbon compounds transformation based on the proportion between the flows of net-mineralized and (re)immobilized carbon (NM: RI) allowed to evaluate integrally the functioning regime of the agroecosystems and the ecological impact on them. The differences in the functioning of agroecosystems on different heavy metal-polluted soils identified on the background of climatic changes are suitable for forecasting the current state and development of agroecosystems. For agroecosystems of this region, C-CO2 emission was estimated for the first time; it was more intense from the soils with the high humus content than from the soils poor in humus (141 and 101 g C/m2, respectively).

A CLIMATOLOGY OF WATER BUDGET VARIABLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

A Climatology of Water Budget Variables for the Northeast United States (Leathers and Robinson 1995). Climatic division precipitation and temperature data are used to calculate water budget variables based on the Thornthwaite/Mather climatic water budget methodology. Two water b...

The role of the states in a federal climate program : issues and options

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

This paper provides an overview of some of the key isuses regarding statefederal roles in a federal climate program and identifies four possible mechanisms that have been suggested for allowing states to set more stringent reduction targets. *Cont...

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation strategies into New York State Department of Transportation's operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-31

This study identifies climate change adaptation strategies and recommends ways of mainstreaming them into planned actions, including legislation, policies, programs and projects in all areas and at all levels within the New York State Department of T...

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems in the United States.

PubMed

Schimel, D; Melillo, J; Tian, H; McGuire, A D; Kicklighter, D; Kittel, T; Rosenbloom, N; Running, S; Thornton, P; Ojima, D; Parton, W; Kelly, R; Sykes, M; Neilson, R; Rizzo, B

2000-03-17

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and climate effects of 0.08 gigaton of carbon per year. The best estimates of the total sink from inventory data are about three times larger, suggesting that processes such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land or in forests harvested before 1980 have effects as large as or larger than the direct effects of CO2 and climate. The modeled sink varies by about 100% from year to year as a result of climate variability.

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schimel, D.; Melillo, J.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Kicklighter, D.; Kittel, T.; Rosenbloom, N.; Running, S.; Thornton, P.; Ojima, D.; Parton, W.; Kelly, R.; Sykes, M.; Neilson, R.; Rizzo, B.

2000-01-01

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and climate effects of 0.08 gigaton of carbon per year. The best estimates of the total sink from inventory data are about three times larger, suggesting that processes such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land or in forests harvested before 1980 have effects as large as or larger than the direct effects of CO2 and climate. The modeled sink varies by about 100% from year to year as a result of climate variability.

Nitrogen use efficiency in the US economy: Towards mitigation of climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houlton, B. Z.; Boyer, E. W.; Finzi, A. C.; Galloway, J. N.; Leach, A.; Liptzin, D.; Melillo, J. M.; Rosenstock, T.; Sobota, D. J.; Townsend, A. R.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen (N) interacts strongly with climate change in determining the severity and extent of many human health and environmental issues, such as eutrophication, poor air quality, and the maintenance of a secure food system. We were motivated by such N-climate interactions and their environmental impacts as part of a broader assessment of N in the continental United States. We here seek to identify and quantify inefficiencies associated with intentional N creation (i.e., creating synthetic N fertilizers and cultivating N-fixing legumes) among the major N-dependent sectors of the United States economy. We define efficiency of N use as the proportion N directly incorporated into food, fiber, biofuel, and industrial goods from the pool of intentionally created N. We are interested in whether reductions in N use could be achieved without changing the current functioning of the major N-dependent economic sectors. Our analysis points to substantial inefficiencies in N use at the national scale. A large percentage of the N applied as synthetic fertilizer and fixed by legumes annually fails to enter the United States food supply. Much of the unincorporated N enters air, land and water, where it can impact human health and ecosystems. The climate change forcing of N is uncertain, though it appears that the combined effects of intentionally and unintentionally created N on climate is roughly neutral in the United States (i.e., net effect of N-enhanced C storage, nitrous oxide emissions, N-based aerosols, and tropospheric ozone on climate forcing). Thus, it is reasonable to expect that improved efficiencies in N use would have minimal negative side effects on the United States economy, human health and the environment. We suggest that policies aimed at improving N-use efficiencies are an alternative to direct climate mitigation strategies in offsetting several impacts of climate change on human health and ecosystem functioning.

A fresh look at the Last Glacial Maximum using Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, S. B.; Tierney, J. E.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Quantifying climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21ka) can help us to understand climate responses to forcing and climate states that are poorly represented in the instrumental record. Paleoclimate proxies may be used to estimate these climate conditions, but proxies are sparsely distributed and possess uncertainties from environmental and biogeochemical processes. Alternatively, climate model simulations provide a full-field view, but may predict unrealistic climate states or states not faithful to proxy records. Here, we use data assimilation - combining climate proxy records with a theoretical understanding from climate models - to produce field reconstructions of the LGM that leverage the information from both data and models. To date, data assimilation has mainly been used to produce reconstructions of climate fields through the last millennium. We expand this approach in order to produce a climate fields for the Last Glacial Maximum using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation. Ensemble samples were formed from output from multiple models including CCSM3, CESM2.1, and HadCM3. These model simulations are combined with marine sediment proxies for upper ocean temperature (TEX86, UK'37, Mg/Ca and δ18O of foraminifera), utilizing forward models based on a newly developed suite of Bayesian proxy system models. We also incorporate age model and radiocarbon reservoir uncertainty into our reconstructions using Bayesian age modeling software. The resulting fields show familiar patterns based on comparison with previous proxy-based reconstructions, but additionally reveal novel patterns of large-scale shifts in ocean-atmosphere dynamics, as the surface temperature data inform upon atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Hemispheric symmetry of the Earth's Energy Balance as a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, G. L.; Webster, P. J.; OBrien, D. M.

2013-12-01

We currently lack a quantitative understanding of how the Earth's energy balance and the poleward energy transport adjust to different forcings that determine climate change. Currently, there are no constraints that guide this understanding. We will demonstrate that the Earth's energy balance exhibits a remarkable symmetry about the equator, and that this symmetry is a necessary condition of a steady state climate. Our analysis points to clouds as the principal agent that highly regulates this symmetry and sets the steady state. The existence of this thermodynamic steady-state constraint on climate and the symmetry required to sustain it leads to important inferences about the synchronous nature of climate changes between hemispheres, offering for example insights on mechanisms that can sustain global ice ages forced by asymmetric hemispheric solar radiation variations or how climate may respond to increases in greenhouse gas concentration. Further inferences regarding cloud effects on climate can also be deduced without resorting to the complex and intricate processes of cloud formation, whose representation continues to challenge the climate modeling community. The constraint suggests cloud feedbacks must be negative buffering the system against change. We will show that this constraint doesn't exist in the current CMIP5 model experiments and the lack of such a constraint suggests there is insufficient buffering in models in response to external forcings

Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews

2008-01-01

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and...

Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: a state-of-the-knowledge review

Treesearch

Guy R. McPherson; Jake F. Weltzin

2000-01-01

This review evaluates the effects and importance of disturbance and climate change on plant community dynamics in the United States/Mexico borderlands region. Our primary focus is on knowledge of physiognomic-level change in grasslands and woodlands of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Changes in vegetation physiognomy have broad implications for...