Threshold magnitudes for a multichannel correlation detector in background seismicity

DOE PAGES

Carmichael, Joshua D.; Hartse, Hans

2016-04-01

Colocated explosive sources often produce correlated seismic waveforms. Multichannel correlation detectors identify these signals by scanning template waveforms recorded from known reference events against "target" data to find similar waveforms. This screening problem is challenged at thresholds required to monitor smaller explosions, often because non-target signals falsely trigger such detectors. Therefore, it is generally unclear what thresholds will reliably identify a target explosion while screening non-target background seismicity. Here, we estimate threshold magnitudes for hypothetical explosions located at the North Korean nuclear test site over six months of 2010, by processing International Monitoring System (IMS) array data with a multichannelmore » waveform correlation detector. Our method (1) accounts for low amplitude background seismicity that falsely triggers correlation detectors but is unidentifiable with conventional power beams, (2) adapts to diurnally variable noise levels and (3) uses source-receiver reciprocity concepts to estimate thresholds for explosions spatially separated from the template source. Furthermore, we find that underground explosions with body wave magnitudes m b = 1.66 are detectable at the IMS array USRK with probability 0.99, when using template waveforms consisting only of P -waves, without false alarms. We conservatively find that these thresholds also increase by up to a magnitude unit for sources located 4 km or more from the Feb.12, 2013 announced nuclear test.« less

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.

2005-01-01

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Using strain rates to forecast seismic hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Eileen

2017-01-01

One essential component in forecasting seismic hazards is observing the gradual accumulation of tectonic strain accumulation along faults before this strain is suddenly released as earthquakes. Typically, seismic hazard models are based on geologic estimates of slip rates along faults and historical records of seismic activity, neither of which records actively accumulating strain. But this strain can be estimated by geodesy: the precise measurement of tiny position changes of Earth’s surface, obtained from GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), or a variety of other instruments.

Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, A.L.; McGuire, J.J.

2011-01-01

Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M???1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, F.W.; Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Wesson, R.L.; Okubo, P.G.

2001-01-01

The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

GNSS seismometer: Seismic phase recognition of real-time high-rate GNSS deformation waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Zhaosheng; Zhang, Rui; Liu, Gang; Jia, Zhige; Wang, Dijin; Zhou, Yu; Lin, Mu

2016-12-01

High-rate global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) can potentially be used as seismometers to capture short-period instantaneous dynamic deformation waves from earthquakes. However, the performance and seismic phase recognition of the GNSS seismometer in the real-time mode, which plays an important role in GNSS seismology, are still uncertain. By comparing the results of accuracy and precision of the real-time solution using a shake table test, we found real-time solutions to be consistent with post-processing solutions and independent of sampling rate. In addition, we analyzed the time series of real-time solutions for shake table tests and recent large earthquakes. The results demonstrated that high-rate GNSS have the ability to retrieve most types of seismic waves, including P-, S-, Love, and Rayleigh waves. The main factor limiting its performance in recording seismic phases is the widely used 1-Hz sampling rate. The noise floor also makes recognition of some weak seismic phases difficult. We concluded that the propagation velocities and path of seismic waves, macro characteristics of the high-rate GNSS array, spatial traces of seismic phases, and incorporation of seismographs are all useful in helping to retrieve seismic phases from the high-rate GNSS time series.

Characterizing and comparing seismicity at Cascade Range (USA) volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, S. C.; Thelen, W. A.

2010-12-01

The Cascade Range includes 13 volcanic systems across Washington, Oregon, and northern California that are considered to have the potential to erupt at any time, including two that have erupted in the last 100 years (Mount St. Helens (MSH) and Lassen Peak). We investigated how seismicity compares among these volcanoes, and whether the character of seismicity (rate, type, style of occurrence over time, etc.) is related to eruptive activity at the surface. Seismicity at Cascade volcanoes has been monitored by seismic networks of variable apertures, station densities, and lengths of operation, which makes a direct comparison of seismicity among volcanoes somewhat problematic. Here we present results of two non-network-dependent approaches to making such seismicity comparisons. In the first, we used network geometry and a grid-search method to compute the minimum magnitude required for a network to locate an earthquake (“theoretical location threshold”, defined as an event recorded on at least 4 stations with gap of <135o) for each volcano out to 7 km. We then selected earthquakes with magnitudes greater than the highest theoretical location threshold determined for any Cascade volcano. To account for improving network densities with time, we used M 2.1 (location threshold for the Three Sisters 1980s-90s network) for 1987-1999 and M 1.6 (threshold for the Crater Lake 2000s network) for 2000-2010. In order to include only background seismicity, we excluded earthquakes occurring at any volcano during the 2004-2008 MSH eruption. We found that Mount Hood, Lassen Peak, and MSH had the three highest seismicity rates over that period, with Mount Hood, Medicine Lake volcano, and MSH having the three highest cumulative seismic energy releases. The Medicine Lake energy release is dominated by a single swarm in September 1988; if that swarm is removed, then Lassen would have the third-highest cumulative seismic energy release. For the second comparison, we determined the

Changes in crustal seismic deformation rates associated with the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doser, D.I.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Saltus, R.

2004-01-01

We calculated seismic moment rates from crustal earthquake information for the upper Cook Inlet region, including Anchorage, Alaska, for the 30 yr prior to and 36 yr following the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake. Our results suggest over a factor of 1000 decrease in seismic moment rate (in units of dyne centimeters per year) following the 1964 mainshock. We used geologic information on structures within the Cook Inlet basin to estimate a regional geologic moment rate, assuming the structures extend to 30 km depth and have near-vertical dips. The geologic moment rates could underestimate the true rates by up to 70% since it is difficult determine the amount of horizontal offset that has occurred along many structures within the basin. Nevertheless, the geologic moment rate is only 3-7 times lower than the pre-1964 seismic moment rate, suggesting the 1964 mainshock has significantly slowed regional crustal deformation. If we compare the geologic moment rate to the post-1964 seismic moment rate, the moment rate deficit over the past 36 yr is equivalent to a moment magnitude 6.6-7.0 earthquake. These observed differences in moment rates highlight the difficulty in using seismicity in the decades following a large megathrust earthquake to adequately characterize long-term crustal deformation.

Seismicity rate increases associated with slow slip episodes prior to the 2012 Mw 7.4 Ometepec earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colella, Harmony V.; Sit, Stefany M.; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Graham, Shannon E.; DeMets, Charles; Holtkamp, Stephen G.; Skoumal, Robert J.; Ghouse, Noorulann; Cabral-Cano, Enrique; Kostoglodov, Vladimir; Arciniega-Ceballos, Alejandra

2017-04-01

The March 20, 2012 Mw 7.4 Ometepec earthquake in the Oaxaca region of Southern Mexico provides a unique opportunity to examine whether subtle changes in seismicity, tectonic tremor, or slow slip can be observed prior to a large earthquake that may illuminate changes in stress or background slip rate. Continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) data reveal a 5-month-long slow slip event (SSE) between ∼20 and 35 km depth that migrated toward and reached the vicinity of the mainshock a few weeks prior to the earthquake. Seismicity in Oaxaca is examined using single station tectonic tremor detection and multi-station waveform template matching of earthquake families. An increase in seismic activity, detected with template matching using aftershock waveforms, is only observed in the weeks prior to the mainshock in the region between the SSE and mainshock. In contrast, a SSE ∼15 months earlier occurred at ∼25-40 km depth and was primarily associated with an increase in tectonic tremor. Together, these observations indicate that in the Oaxaca region of Mexico shallower slow slip promotes elevated seismicity rates, and deeper slow slip promotes tectonic tremor. Results from this study add to a growing number of published accounts that indicate slow slip may be a common pre-earthquake signature.

Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Richards-Dinger, K.; Bozkurt, S.B.

2005-01-01

We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

Rate of Change in Lake Level and its Impact on Reservoir-triggered Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, D. W.

2017-12-01

With recent interest in increased seismicity related to fluid injection, it is useful to review cases of reservoir-triggered earthquakes to explore common characteristics and seek ways to mitigate the influence of anthropogenic impacts. Three reservoirs - Koyna, India; Nurek, Tajikistan; and Aswan, Egypt - are well-documented cases of triggered earthquakes with recorded time series of seismicity and water levels that extend for more than 30 years. The geological setting, regional tectonics and modes of reservoir utilization, along with the characteristics of the reservoir-seismicity interaction, are distinctly different in each of these three cases. Similarities and differences between these three cases point to regional and local geological and hydrological structures and the rate of changes in reservoir water level as important factors controlling the presence and timing of triggered seismicity. In a manner similar to the way in which the rate of fluid injection influences injection-related seismicity, the rate of change in reservoir water level is a significant factor in determining whether or not reservoir-triggered seismicity occurs. The high rate of annual water level rise may be important in sustaining the exceptionally long sequence of earthquakes at Koyna. In addition to the rate of filling being a determining factor in whether or not earthquakes are triggered, changes in the rate of filling may influence the time of occurrence of individual earthquakes.

On the use of faults and background seismicity in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Tonini, Roberto; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Romano, Fabrizio; Perfetti, Paolo; Volpe, Manuela

2017-04-01

Most of the SPTHA studies and applications rely on several working assumptions: i) the - mostly offshore - tsunamigenic faults are sufficiently well known; ii) the subduction zone earthquakes dominate the hazard; iii) and their location and geometry is sufficiently well constrained. Hence, a probabilistic model is constructed as regards the magnitude-frequency distribution and sometimes the slip distribution of earthquakes occurring on assumed known faults. Then, tsunami scenarios are usually constructed for all earthquakes location, sizes, and slip distributions included in the probabilistic model, through deterministic numerical modelling of tsunami generation, propagation and impact on realistic bathymetries. Here, we adopt a different approach (Selva et al., GJI, 2016) that releases some of the above assumptions, considering that i) also non-subduction earthquakes may contribute significantly to SPTHA, depending on the local tectonic context; ii) that not all the offshore faults are known or sufficiently well constrained; iii) and that the faulting mechanism of future earthquakes cannot be considered strictly predictable. This approach uses as much as possible information from known faults which, depending on the amount of available information and on the local tectonic complexity, among other things, are either modelled as Predominant Seismicity (PS) or as Background Seismicity (BS). PS is used when it is possible to assume sufficiently known geometry and mechanism (e.g. for the main subduction zones). Conversely, within the BS approach information on faults is merged with that on past seismicity, dominant stress regime, and tectonic characterisation, to determine a probability density function for the faulting mechanism. To illustrate the methodology and its impact on the hazard estimates, we present an application in the NEAM region (Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas), initially designed during the ASTARTE project and now applied for the

Earthquake potential in California-Nevada implied by correlation of strain rate and seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-01-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Earthquake Potential in California-Nevada Implied by Correlation of Strain Rate and Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-02-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model Forecasts Onset, Peak, and Falling Rates of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norbeck, J. H.; Rubinstein, J. L.

2018-04-01

The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. We develop a reservoir model to calculate the hydrologic conditions associated with the activity of 902 saltwater disposal wells injecting into the Arbuckle aquifer. Estimates of basement fault stressing conditions inform a rate-and-state friction earthquake nucleation model to forecast the seismic response to injection. Our model replicates many salient features of the induced earthquake sequence, including the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity rate, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. We present evidence for variable time lags between changes in injection and seismicity rates, consistent with the prediction from rate-and-state theory that seismicity rate transients occur over timescales inversely proportional to stressing rate. Given the efficacy of the hydromechanical model, as confirmed through a likelihood statistical test, the results of this study support broader integration of earthquake physics within seismic hazard analysis.

Seismic behaviour of mountain belts controlled by plate convergence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Zilio, Luca; van Dinther, Ylona; Gerya, Taras V.; Pranger, Casper C.

2018-01-01

The relative contribution of tectonic and kinematic processes to seismic behaviour of mountain belts is still controversial. To understand the partitioning between these processes we developed a model that simulates both tectonic and seismic processes in a continental collision setting. These 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) models obtain a Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution due to spontaneous events occurring throughout the orogen. Our simulations suggest that both the corresponding slope (b value) and maximum earthquake magnitude (MWmax) correlate linearly with plate convergence rate. By analyzing 1D rheological profiles and isotherm depths we demonstrate that plate convergence rate controls the brittle strength through a rheological feedback with temperature and strain rate. Faster convergence leads to cooler temperatures and also results in more larger seismogenic domains, thereby increasing both MWmax and the relative number of large earthquakes (decreasing b value). This mechanism also predicts a more seismogenic lower crust, which is confirmed by a transition from uni- to bi-modal hypocentre depth distributions in our models. This transition and a linear relation between convergence rate and b value and MWmax is supported by our comparison of earthquakes recorded across the Alps, Apennines, Zagros and Himalaya. These results imply that deformation in the Alps occurs in a more ductile manner compared to the Himalayas, thereby reducing its seismic hazard. Furthermore, a second set of experiments with higher temperature and different orogenic architecture shows the same linear relation with convergence rate, suggesting that large-scale tectonic structure plays a subordinate role. We thus propose that plate convergence rate, which also controls the average differential stress of the orogen and its linear relation to the b value, is the first-order parameter controlling seismic hazard of mountain belts.

The buried active faults in southeastern China as revealed by the relocated background seismicity and fault plane solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, A.; Wang, P.; Liu, F.

2017-12-01

The southeastern China in the mainland corresponds to the south China block, which is characterized by moderate historical seismicity and low stain rate. Most faults are buried under thick Quaternary deposits, so it is difficult to detect and locate them using the routine geological methods. Only a few have been identified to be active in late Quaternary, which leads to relatively high potentially seismic risk to this region due to the unexpected locations of the earthquakes. We performed both hypoDD and tomoDD for the background seismicity from 2000 to 2016 to investigate the buried faults. Some buried active faults are revealed by the relocated seismicity and the velocity structure, no geologically known faults corresponding to them and no surface active evidence ever observed. The geometries of the faults are obtained by analyzing the hypocentral distribution pattern and focal mechanism. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that all the revealed faults are dominated in strike-slip mechanisms, or with some thrust components. While the previous fault investigation and detection results show that most of the Quaternary faults in southeastern China are dominated by normal movement. It suggests that there may exist two fault systems in deep and shallow tectonic regimes. The revealed faults may construct the deep one that act as the seismogenic faults, and the normal faults at shallow cannot generate the destructive earthquakes. The variation in the Curie-point depths agrees well with the structure plane of the revealed active faults, suggesting that the faults may have changed the deep structure.

Moon meteoritic seismic hum: Steady state prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lognonne, P.; Feuvre, M.L.; Johnson, C.L.; Weber, R.C.

2009-01-01

We use three different statistical models describing the frequency of meteoroid impacts on Earth to estimate the seismic background noise due to impacts on the lunar surface. Because of diffraction, seismic events on the Moon are typically characterized by long codas, lasting 1 h or more. We find that the small but frequent impacts generate seismic signals whose codas overlap in time, resulting in a permanent seismic noise that we term the "lunar hum" by analogy with the Earth's continuous seismic background seismic hum. We find that the Apollo era impact detection rates and amplitudes are well explained by a model that parameterizes (1) the net seismic impulse due to the impactor and resulting ejecta and (2) the effects of diffraction and attenuation. The formulation permits the calculation of a composite waveform at any point on the Moon due to simulated impacts at any epicentral distance. The root-mean-square amplitude of this waveform yields a background noise level that is about 100 times lower than the resolution of the Apollo long-period seismometers. At 2 s periods, this noise level is more than 1000 times lower than the low noise model prediction for Earth's microseismic noise. Sufficiently sensitive seismometers will allow the future detection of several impacts per day at body wave frequencies. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

An earthquake rate forecast for Europe based on smoothed seismicity and smoothed fault contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiemer, Stefan; Woessner, Jochen; Basili, Roberto; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

The main objective of project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is to develop a community-based seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The logic tree of earthquake rupture forecasts comprises several methodologies including smoothed seismicity approaches. Smoothed seismicity thus represents an alternative concept to express the degree of spatial stationarity of seismicity and provides results that are more objective, reproducible, and testable. Nonetheless, the smoothed-seismicity approach suffers from the common drawback of being generally based on earthquake catalogs alone, i.e. the wealth of knowledge from geology is completely ignored. We present a model that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults and subductions. The result is mainly driven by the data, being independent of subjective delineation of seismic source zones. The core parts of our model are two distinct location probability densities: The first is computed by smoothing past seismicity (using variable kernel smoothing to account for varying data density). The second is obtained by smoothing fault moment rate contributions. The fault moment rates are calculated by summing the moment rate of each fault patch on a fully parameterized and discretized fault as available from the SHARE fault database. We assume that the regional frequency-magnitude distribution of the entire study area is well known and estimate the a- and b-value of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the seismic catalog. The two location probability densities are linearly weighted as a function of magnitude assuming that (1) the occurrence of past seismicity is a good proxy to forecast occurrence of future seismicity and (2) future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. Consequently

Geometric and thermal controls on normal fault seismicity from rate-and-state friction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mark, H. F.; Behn, M. D.; Olive, J. A. L.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Seismic and geodetic observations from the last two decades have led to a growing realization that a significant amount of fault slip at plate boundaries occurs aseismically, and that the amount of aseismic displacement varies across settings. Here we investigate controls on the seismogenic behavior of crustal-scale normal faults that accommodate extensional strain at mid-ocean ridges and continental rifts. Seismic moment release rates measured along the fast-spreading East Pacific Rise suggest that the majority of fault growth occurs aseismically with almost no seismic slip. In contrast, at the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge seismic slip may represent up to 60% of the total fault displacement. Potential explanations for these variations include heterogeneous distributions of frictional properties on fault surfaces, effects of variable magma supply associated with seafloor spreading, and/or differences in fault geometry and thermal structure. In this study, we use rate-and-state friction models to study the seismic coupling coefficient (the fraction of total fault slip that occurs seismically) for normal faults at divergent plate boundaries, and investigate controls on fault behavior that might produce the variations in the coupling coefficient observed in natural systems. We find that the seismic coupling coefficient scales with W/h*, where W is the downdip width of the seismogenic area of the fault and h* is the critical earthquake nucleation size. At mid-ocean ridges, W is expected to increase with decreasing spreading rate. Thus, the observed relationship between seismic coupling and W/h* explains to first order variations in seismic coupling coefficient as a function of spreading rate. Finally, we use catalog data from the Gulf of Corinth to show that this scaling relationship can be extended into the thicker lithosphere of continental rift systems.

A comparison of long-term changes in seismicity at The Geysers, Salton Sea, and Coso geothermal fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, Daniel T.; Shearer, Peter M.; Borsa, Adrian A.; Fialko, Yuri

2016-01-01

Geothermal energy is an important source of renewable energy, yet its production is known to induce seismicity. Here we analyze seismicity at the three largest geothermal fields in California: The Geysers, Salton Sea, and Coso. We focus on resolving the temporal evolution of seismicity rates, which provides important observational constraints on how geothermal fields respond to natural and anthropogenic loading. We develop an iterative, regularized inversion procedure to partition the observed seismicity rate into two components: (1) the interaction rate due to earthquake-earthquake triggering and (2) the smoothly varying background rate controlled by other time-dependent stresses, including anthropogenic forcing. We apply our methodology to compare long-term changes in seismicity to monthly records of fluid injection and withdrawal. At The Geysers, we find that the background seismicity rate is highly correlated with fluid injection, with the mean rate increasing by approximately 50% and exhibiting strong seasonal fluctuations following construction of the Santa Rosa pipeline in 2003. In contrast, at both Salton Sea and Coso, the background seismicity rate has remained relatively stable since 1990, though both experience short-term rate fluctuations that are not obviously modulated by geothermal plant operation. We also observe significant temporal variations in Gutenberg-Richter b value, earthquake magnitude distribution, and earthquake depth distribution, providing further evidence for the dynamic evolution of stresses within these fields. The differing field-wide responses to fluid injection and withdrawal may reflect differences in in situ reservoir conditions and local tectonics, suggesting that a complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic stressing controls seismicity within California's geothermal fields.

A long-term earthquake rate model for the central and eastern United States from smoothed seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.

2015-01-01

I present a long-term earthquake rate model for the central and eastern United States from adaptive smoothed seismicity. By employing pseudoprospective likelihood testing (L-test), I examined the effects of fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and the effects of catalog duration and composition on the ability of the models to forecast the spatial distribution of recent earthquakes. To stabilize the adaptive smoothing method for regions of low seismicity, I introduced minor modifications to the way that the adaptive smoothing distances are calculated. Across all smoothed seismicity models, the use of adaptive smoothing and the use of earthquakes from the recent part of the catalog optimizes the likelihood for tests with M≥2.7 and M≥4.0 earthquake catalogs. The smoothed seismicity models optimized by likelihood testing with M≥2.7 catalogs also produce the highest likelihood values for M≥4.0 likelihood testing, thus substantiating the hypothesis that the locations of moderate-size earthquakes can be forecast by the locations of smaller earthquakes. The likelihood test does not, however, maximize the fraction of earthquakes that are better forecast than a seismicity rate model with uniform rates in all cells. In this regard, fixed smoothing models perform better than adaptive smoothing models. The preferred model of this study is the adaptive smoothed seismicity model, based on its ability to maximize the joint likelihood of predicting the locations of recent small-to-moderate-size earthquakes across eastern North America. The preferred rate model delineates 12 regions where the annual rate of M≥5 earthquakes exceeds 2×10−3. Although these seismic regions have been previously recognized, the preferred forecasts are more spatially concentrated than the rates from fixed smoothed seismicity models, with rate increases of up to a factor of 10 near clusters of high seismic activity.

Aseismic and seismic slip induced by fluid injection from poroelastic and rate-state friction modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Deng, K.; Harrington, R. M.; Clerc, F.

2016-12-01

Solid matrix stress change and pore pressure diffusion caused by fluid injection has been postulated as key factors for inducing earthquakes and aseismic slip on pre-existing faults. In this study, we have developed a numerical model that simulates aseismic and seismic slip in a rate-and-state friction framework with poroelastic stress perturbations from multi-stage hydraulic fracturing scenarios. We apply the physics-based model to the 2013-2015 earthquake sequences near Fox Creek, Alberta, Canada, where three magnitude 4.5 earthquakes were potentially induced by nearby hydraulic fracturing activity. In particular, we use the relocated December 2013 seismicity sequence to approximate the fault orientation, and find the seismicity migration spatiotemporally correlate with the positive Coulomb stress changes calculated from the poroelastic model. When the poroelastic stress changes are introduced to the rate-state friction model, we find that slip on the fault evolves from aseismic to seismic in a manner similar to the onset of seismicity. For a 15-stage hydraulic fracturing that lasted for 10 days, modeled fault slip rate starts to accelerate after 3 days of fracking, and rapidly develops into a seismic event, which also temporally coincides with the onset of induced seismicity. The poroelastic stress perturbation and consequently fault slip rate continue to evolve and remain high for several weeks after hydraulic fracturing has stopped, which may explain the continued seismicity after shut-in. In a comparison numerical experiment, fault slip rate quickly decreases to the interseismic level when stress perturbations are instantaneously returned to zero at shut-in. Furthermore, when stress perturbations are removed just a few hours after the fault slip rate starts to accelerate (that is, hydraulic fracturing is shut down prematurely), only aseismic slip is observed in the model. Our preliminary results thus suggest the design of fracturing duration and flow

Increases in seismicity rate in the Tokyo Metropolitan area after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishibe, T.; Satake, K.; Sakai, S.; Shimazaki, K.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Hirata, N.

2013-12-01

Abrupt increases in seismicity rate have been observed in the Kanto region, where the Tokyo Metropolitan area is located, after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) on March 11, 2011. They are well explained by the static increases in the Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF) imparted by the gigantic thrusting while some other possible factors (e.g., dynamic stress changes, excess of fluid dehydration, post-seismic slip) may also contribute the rate changes. Because of various types of earthquakes with different focal mechanisms occur in the Kanto region, the receiver faults for the calculation of ΔCFF were assumed to be two nodal planes of small earthquakes before and after the Tohoku earthquake. The regions where seismicity rate increased after the Tohoku earthquake well correlate with concentration on positive ΔCFF (i.e., southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures where intermediate-depth earthquakes occur, and in the shallow crust of western Kanagawa, eastern Shizuoka, and southeastern Yamanashi including the Izu and Hakone regions). The seismicity rate has increased since March 11, 2011 with respect to the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988), suggesting that the rate increase was due to the stress increase by the Tohoku earthquake. Furthermore, the z-values immediately after the Tohoku earthquake show the minimum values during the recent 10 years, indicating significant increases in seismicity rate. At intermediate depth, abrupt increases in thrust faulting earthquakes are well consistent with the Coulomb stress increase. At shallow depth, the earthquakes with the T-axes of roughly NE-SW were activated probably due to the E-W extension of the overriding continental plate, and this is also well explained by the Coulomb stress increase. However, the activated seismicity in the Izu and Hakone regions rapidly decayed following the Omori-Utsu formula, while the increased rate of seismicity in the southwestern

Fault slip rates in the modern new madrid seismic zone

PubMed

Mueller; Champion; Guccione; Kelson

1999-11-05

Structural and geomorphic analysis of late Holocene sediments in the Lake County region of the New Madrid seismic zone indicates that they are deformed by fault-related folding above the blind Reelfoot thrust fault. The widths of narrow kink bands exposed in trenches were used to model the Reelfoot scarp as a forelimb on a fault-bend fold; this, coupled with the age of folded sediment, yields a slip rate on the blind thrust of 6.1 +/- 0.7 mm/year for the past 2300 +/- 100 years. An alternative method used structural relief across the scarp and the estimated dip of the underlying blind thrust to calculate a slip rate of 4.8 +/- 0.2 mm/year. Geometric relations suggest that the right lateral slip rate on the New Madrid seismic zone is 1.8 to 2.0 mm/year.

Inverting seismic data for rock physical properties; Mathematical background and application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farfour, Mohammed; Yoon, Wang Jung; Kim, Jinmo

2016-06-08

The basic concept behind seismic inversion is that mathematical assumptions can be established to relate seismic to geological formation properties that caused their seismic responses. In this presentation we address some widely used seismic inversion method in hydrocarbon reservoirs identification and characterization. A successful use of the inversion in real example from gas sand reservoir in Boonsville field, Noth Central Texas is presented. Seismic data was not unambiguous indicator of reservoir facies distribution. The use of the inversion led to remove the ambiguity and reveal clear information about the target.

The Effect Analysis of Strain Rate on Power Transmission Tower-Line System under Seismic Excitation

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenming

2014-01-01

The effect analysis of strain rate on power transmission tower-line system under seismic excitation is studied in this paper. A three-dimensional finite element model of a transmission tower-line system is created based on a real project. Using theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, incremental dynamic analysis of the power transmission tower-line system is conducted to investigate the effect of strain rate on the nonlinear responses of the transmission tower and line. The results show that the effect of strain rate on the transmission tower generally decreases the maximum top displacements, but it would increase the maximum base shear forces, and thus it is necessary to consider the effect of strain rate on the seismic analysis of the transmission tower. The effect of strain rate could be ignored for the seismic analysis of the conductors and ground lines, but the responses of the ground lines considering strain rate effect are larger than those of the conductors. The results could provide a reference for the seismic design of the transmission tower-line system. PMID:25105157

Discriminating Characteristics of Tectonic and Human-Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaliapin, I. V.; Ben-Zion, Y.

2015-12-01

We analyze statistical features of background and clustered subpopulations of earthquakes in different regions in an effort to distinguish between human-induced and natural seismicity. Analysis of "end-member" areas known to be dominated by human-induced earthquakes (the Geyser geothermal field in northern California and TauTona gold mine in South Africa) and regular tectonic activity (the San Jacinto fault zone in southern California and Coso region excluding the Coso geothermal field in eastern central California) reveals several distinguishing characteristics. Induced seismicity is shown to have (i) higher rate of background events (both absolute and relative to the total rate), (ii) faster temporal offspring decay, (iii) higher intensity of repeating events, (iv) larger proportion of small clusters, and (v) larger spatial separation between parent and offspring, compared to regular tectonic activity. These differences also successfully discriminate seismicity within the Coso and Salton Sea geothermal fields in California before and after the expansion of geothermal production during the 1980s.

Statistical analysis of seismicity rate change in the Tokyo Metropolitan area due to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishibe, T.; Sakai, S.; Shimazaki, K.; Satake, K.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Hirata, N.

2012-12-01

We examined a relationship between the Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF) due to the Tohoku earthquake (March 11, 2011; MJMA 9.0) and the seismicity rate change in Tokyo Metropolitan area following March 2011. Because of large variation in focal mechanism in the Kanto region, the receiver faults for the ΔCFF were assumed to be two nodal planes of small (M ≥ 2.0) earthquakes which occurred before and after the Tohoku earthquake. The seismicity rate changes, particularly the rate increase, are well explained by ΔCFF due to the gigantic thrusting, while some other possible factors (e.g., dynamic stress changes, excess of fluid dehydration) may also contribute the rate changes. Among 30,746 previous events provided by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (M ≥ 2.0, July 1979 - July 2003), we used as receiver faults, almost 16,000 events indicate significant increase in ΔCFF, while about 8,000 events show significant decrease. Positive ΔCFF predicts seismicity rate increase in southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures where intermediate-depth earthquakes occur, and in shallow crust of the Izu-Oshima and Hakone regions. In these regions, seismicity rates significantly increased after the Tohoku earthquake. The seismicity has increased since March 2011 with respect to the Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988), indicating that the rate change was due to the stress increase by the Tohoku earthquake. The activated seismicity in the Izu and Hakone regions rapidly decayed following the Omori-Utsu formula, while the increased rate of seismicity in the southwestern Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures is still continuing. We also calculated ΔCFF due to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake for the focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes between April 2008 and October 2011 recorded on the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). The ΔCFF values for the earthquakes after March 2011 show more

Estimation of background noise level on seismic station using statistical analysis for improved analysis accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, S. M.; Hahm, I.

2015-12-01

We evaluated the background noise level of seismic stations in order to collect the observation data of high quality and produce accurate seismic information. Determining of the background noise level was used PSD (Power Spectral Density) method by McNamara and Buland (2004) in this study. This method that used long-term data is influenced by not only innate electronic noise of sensor and a pulse wave resulting from stabilizing but also missing data and controlled by the specified frequency which is affected by the irregular signals without site characteristics. It is hard and inefficient to implement process that filters out the abnormal signal within the automated system. To solve these problems, we devised a method for extracting the data which normally distributed with 90 to 99% confidence intervals at each period. The availability of the method was verified using 62-seismic stations with broadband and short-period sensors operated by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). Evaluation standards were NHNM (New High Noise Model) and NLNM (New Low Noise Model) published by the USGS (United States Geological Survey). It was designed based on the western United States. However, Korean Peninsula surrounded by the ocean on three sides has a complicated geological structure and a high population density. So, we re-designed an appropriate model in Korean peninsula by statistically combined result. The important feature is that secondary-microseism peak appeared at a higher frequency band. Acknowledgements: This research was carried out as a part of "Research for the Meteorological and Earthquake Observation Technology and Its Application" supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinji Toda,; Stein, Ross S.

2018-01-01

Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we probe the circumstances under which aftershocks can last for 100–1000 years. Basham and Adams (1983) and Ebel et al. (2000) proposed that intraplate seismicity in eastern North America could be aftershocks of mainshocks that struck hundreds of years beforehand, a view consonant with rate–state friction (Dieterich, 1994), in which aftershock duration varies inversely with fault‐stressing rate. To test these hypotheses, we estimate aftershock durations of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku‐Oki rupture at 12 sites up to 250 km from the source, as well as for the near‐fault aftershocks of eight large Japanese mainshocks, sampling faults slipping 0.01 to 80  mm/yr . Whereas aftershock productivity increases with mainshock magnitude, we find that aftershock duration, the time until the aftershock rate decays to the premainshock rate, does not. Instead, aftershock sequences lasted a month on the fastest‐slipping faults and are projected to persist for more than 2000 years on the slowest. Thus, long aftershock sequences can misguide and inflate hazard assessments in intraplate regions if misinterpreted as background seismicity, whereas areas between seismicity clusters may instead harbor a higher chance of large mainshocks, the opposite of what is being assumed today.

Forecasting Induced Seismicity Using Saltwater Disposal Data and a Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norbeck, J. H.; Rubinstein, J. L.

2017-12-01

The earthquake activity in Oklahoma and Kansas that began in 2008 reflects the most widespread instance of induced seismicity observed to date. In this work, we demonstrate that the basement fault stressing conditions that drive seismicity rate evolution are related directly to the operational history of 958 saltwater disposal wells completed in the Arbuckle aquifer. We developed a fluid pressurization model based on the assumption that pressure changes are dominated by reservoir compressibility effects. Using injection well data, we established a detailed description of the temporal and spatial variability in stressing conditions over the 21.5-year period from January 1995 through June 2017. With this stressing history, we applied a numerical model based on rate-and-state friction theory to generate seismicity rate forecasts across a broad range of spatial scales. The model replicated the onset of seismicity, the timing of the peak seismicity rate, and the reduction in seismicity following decreased disposal activity. The behavior of the induced earthquake sequence was consistent with the prediction from rate-and-state theory that the system evolves toward a steady seismicity rate depending on the ratio between the current and background stressing rates. Seismicity rate transients occurred over characteristic timescales inversely proportional to stressing rate. We found that our hydromechanical earthquake rate model outperformed observational and empirical forecast models for one-year forecast durations over the period 2008 through 2016.

Likelihood testing of seismicity-based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Mueller, Charles

2016-01-01

Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1-year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20-km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple-fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short-term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones.

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Basili, R.; Danciu, L.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

2014-08-01

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project `Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for

Submarine Landslide Hazards Offshore Southern Alaska: Seismic Strengthening Versus Rapid Sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawyer, D.; Reece, R.; Gulick, S. P. S.; Lenz, B. L.

2017-12-01

The southern Alaskan offshore margin is prone to submarine landslides and tsunami hazards due to seismically active plate boundaries and extreme sedimentation rates from glacially enhanced mountain erosion. We examine the submarine landslide potential with new shear strength measurements acquired by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 341 on the continental slope and Surveyor Fan. These data reveal lower than expected sediment strength. Contrary to other active margins where seismic strengthening enhances slope stability, the high-sedimentation margin offshore southern Alaska behaves like a passive margin from a shear strength perspective. We interpret that seismic strengthening occurs but is offset by high sedimentation rates and overpressure within the slope and Surveyor Fan. This conclusion is supported because shear strength follows an expected active margin profile outside of the fan, where background sedimentation rates occur. More broadly, seismically active margins with wet-based glaciers are susceptible to submarine landslide hazards because of the combination of high sedimentation rates and earthquake shaking

The influence of climatically-driven surface loading variations on continental strain and seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Tim; Calais, Eric; Fleitout, Luce; Bollinger, Laurent; Scotti, Oona

2016-04-01

In slowly deforming regions of plate interiors, secondary sources of stress and strain can result in transient deformation rates comparable to, or greater than, the background tectonic rates. Highly variable in space and time, these transients have the potential to influence the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity, interfering with any background tectonic effects to either promote or inhibit the failure of pre-existing faults, and potentially leading to a clustered, or 'pulse-like', seismic history. Here, we investigate the ways in which the large-scale deformation field resulting from climatically-controlled changes in surface ice mass over the Pleistocene and Holocene may have influenced not only the seismicity of glaciated regions, but also the wider seismicity around the ice periphery. We first use a set of geodynamic models to demonstrate that a major pulse of seismic activity occurring in Fennoscandia, coincident with the time of end-glaciation, occurred in a setting where the contemporaneous horizontal strain-rate resulting from the changing ice mass, was extensional - opposite to the reverse sense of coseismic displacement accommodated on these faults. Therefore, faulting did not release extensional elastic strain that was building up at the time of failure, but compressional elastic strain that had accumulated in the lithosphere on timescales longer than the glacial cycle, illustrating the potential for a non-tectonic trigger to tap in to the background tectonic stress-state. We then move on to investigate the more distal influence that changing ice (and ocean) volumes may have had on the evolving strain field across intraplate Europe, how this is reflected in the seismicity across intraplate Europe, and what impact this might have on the paleoseismic record.

Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, Shinji; Enescu, Bogdan

2011-03-01

Numerous studies retrospectively found that seismicity rate jumps (drops) by coseismic Coulomb stress increase (decrease). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Prediction (CSEP) instead provides us an opportunity for prospective testing of the Coulomb hypothesis. Here we adapt our stress transfer model incorporating rate and state dependent friction law to the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast. We demonstrate how to compute the forecast rates of large shocks in 2009 using the large earthquakes during the past 120 years. The time dependent impact of the coseismic stress perturbations explains qualitatively well the occurrence of the recent moderate size shocks. Such ability is partly similar to that of statistical earthquake clustering models. However, our model differs from them as follows: the off-fault aftershock zones can be simulated using finite fault sources; the regional areal patterns of triggered seismicity are modified by the dominant mechanisms of the potential sources; the imparted stresses due to large earthquakes produce stress shadows that lead to a reduction of the forecasted number of earthquakes. Although the model relies on several unknown parameters, it is the first physics based model submitted to the CSEP Japan test center and has the potential to be tuned for short-term earthquake forecasts.

Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

2015-12-01

At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

In Terms of the Logarithmic Mean Annual Seismicity Rate and Its Standard Deviation to Present the Gutenberg-Richter Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K. P.; Chang, W. Y.; Tsai, Y. B.

2016-12-01

The main purpose of this study is to apply an innovative approach to assess the median annual seismicity rates and their dispersions for Taiwan earthquakes in different depth ranges. This approach explicitly represents the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation in terms of both the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation, instead of just the arithmetic mean. We use the high-quality seismicity data obtained by the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES) and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in an earthquake catalog with homogenized moment magnitudes from 1975 to 2014 for our study. The selected data set is shown to be complete for Mw>3.0. We first use it to illustrate the merits of our new approach for dampening the influence of spuriously large or small event numbers in individual years on the determination of median annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation. We further show that the logarithmic annual seismicity rates indeed possess a well-behaved lognormal distribution. The final results are summarized as follows: log10N=5.75-0.90Mw+/-(0.245-0.01Mw) for focal depth 0 300 km; log10N=5.78-0.94Mw+/-(0.195+0.01Mw) for focal depth 0-35 km; log10N=4.72-0.89Mw+/-(-0.075+0.075Mw) for focal depth 35-70 km; and log10N=4.69-0.88Mw+/-(-0.47+0.16Mw) for focal depth 70-300 km. Above results show distinctly different values for the parameters a and b in the G-R relations for Taiwan earthquakes in different depth ranges. These analytical equations can be readily used for comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Furthermore, a numerical table on the corresponding median annual seismicity rates and their upper and lower bounds at median +/- one standard deviation levels, as calculated from above analytical equations, is presented at the end. This table offers an overall glance of the estimated median annual seismicity rates and their dispersions for Taiwan earthquakes of various magnitudes and focal depths. It is interesting to point out that

Reactivity of seismicity rate to static Coulomb stress changes of two consecutive large earthquakes in the central Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dianala, J. D. B.; Aurelio, M.; Rimando, J. M.; Taguibao, K.

2015-12-01

In a region with little understanding in terms of active faults and seismicity, two large-magnitude reverse-fault related earthquakes occurred within 100km of each other in separate islands of the Central Philippines—the Mw=6.7 February 2012 Negros earthquake and the Mw=7.2 October 2013 Bohol earthquake. Based on source faults that were defined using onshore, offshore seismic reflection, and seismicity data, stress transfer models for both earthquakes were calculated using the software Coulomb. Coulomb stress triggering between the two main shocks is unlikely as the stress change caused by Negros earthquake on the Bohol fault was -0.03 bars. Correlating the stress changes on optimally-oriented reverse faults with seismicity rate changes shows that areas that decreased both in static stress and seismicity rate after the first earthquake were then areas with increased static stress and increased seismicity rate caused by the second earthquake. These areas with now increased stress, especially those with seismicity showing reactivity to static stress changes caused by the two earthquakes, indicate the presence of active structures in the island of Cebu. Comparing the history of instrumentally recorded seismicity and the recent large earthquakes of Negros and Bohol, these structures in Cebu have the potential to generate large earthquakes. Given that the Philippines' second largest metropolitan area (Metro Cebu) is in close proximity, detailed analysis of the earthquake potential and seismic hazards in these areas should be undertaken.

Expected Seismicity and the Seismic Noise Environment of Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panning, Mark P.; Stähler, Simon C.; Huang, Hsin-Hua; Vance, Steven D.; Kedar, Sharon; Tsai, Victor C.; Pike, William T.; Lorenz, Ralph D.

2018-01-01

Seismic data will be a vital geophysical constraint on internal structure of Europa if we land instruments on the surface. Quantifying expected seismic activity on Europa both in terms of large, recognizable signals and ambient background noise is important for understanding dynamics of the moon, as well as interpretation of potential future data. Seismic energy sources will likely include cracking in the ice shell and turbulent motion in the oceans. We define a range of models of seismic activity in Europa's ice shell by assuming each model follows a Gutenberg-Richter relationship with varying parameters. A range of cumulative seismic moment release between 1016 and 1018 Nm/yr is defined by scaling tidal dissipation energy to tectonic events on the Earth's moon. Random catalogs are generated and used to create synthetic continuous noise records through numerical wave propagation in thermodynamically self-consistent models of the interior structure of Europa. Spectral characteristics of the noise are calculated by determining probabilistic power spectral densities of the synthetic records. While the range of seismicity models predicts noise levels that vary by 80 dB, we show that most noise estimates are below the self-noise floor of high-frequency geophones but may be recorded by more sensitive instruments. The largest expected signals exceed background noise by ˜50 dB. Noise records may allow for constraints on interior structure through autocorrelation. Models of seismic noise generated by pressure variations at the base of the ice shell due to turbulent motions in the subsurface ocean may also generate observable seismic noise.

A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

2017-12-01

We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

Seasonal variations in shallow Alaska seismicity and stress modulation from GRACE derived hydrological loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. W.; Fu, Y.; Burgmann, R.

2017-12-01

Shallow (≤50 km), low magnitude (M≥2.0) seismicity in southern Alaska is examined for seasonal variations during the annual hydrological cycle. The seismicity is declustered with a spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The removal of aftershock sequences allows detailed investigation of seismicity rate changes, as water and ice loads modulate crustal stresses throughout the year. The GRACE surface loads are obtained from the JPL mass concentration blocks (mascons) global land and ocean solutions. The data product is smoothed with a 9˚ Gaussian filter and interpolated on a 25 km grid. To inform the surface loading model, the global solutions are limited to the region from -160˚ to -120˚ and 50˚ to 70˚. The stress changes are calculated using a 1D spherical layered earth model at depth intervals of 10 km from 10 - 50 km in the study region. To evaluate the induced seasonal stresses, we use >30 years of earthquake focal mechanisms to constrain the background stress field orientation and assess the stress change with respect to the principal stress orientation. The background stress field is assumed to control the preferred orientation of faulting, and stress field perturbations are expected to increase or decrease seismicity. The number of excess earthquakes is calculated with respect to the background seismicity rates. Here, we present preliminary results for the shallow seismicity variations and quantify the seasonal stresses associated with changes in hydrological loading.

Induced seismicity in Carbon and Emery counties, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Megan R. M.

Utah is one of the top producers of oil and natural gas in the United States. Over the past 18 years, more than 4.2 billion gallons of wastewater from the petroleum industry have been injected into the Navajo Sandstone, Kayenta Formation, and Wingate Sandstone in two areas in Carbon and Emery County, Utah, where seismicity has increased during the same period. In this study, I investigated whether or not wastewater injection is related to the increased seismicity. Previous studies have attributed all of the seismicity in central Utah to coal mining activity. I found that water injection might be a more important cause. In the coal mining area, seismicity rate increased significantly 1-5 years following the commencement of wastewater injection. The increased seismicity consists almost entirely of earthquakes with magnitudes of less than 3, and is localized in areas seismically active prior to the injection. I have established the spatiotemporal correlations between the coal mining activities, the wastewater injection, and the increased seismicity. I used simple groundwater models to estimate the change in pore pressure and evaluate the observed time gap between the start of injection and the onset of the increased seismicity in the areas surrounding the injection wells. To ascertain that the increased seismicity is not fluctuation of background seismicity, I analyzed the magnitude-frequency relation of these earthquakes and found a clear increase in the b-value following the wastewater injection. I conclude that the marked increase of seismicity rate in central Utah is induced by both mining activity and wastewater injection, which raised pore pressure along pre-existing faults.

Seismic velocity change and slip rate during the 2006 Guerrero (Mexico) slow slip event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivet, Diane; Radiguet, Mathilde; Campillo, Michel; Cotton, Fabrice; Shapiro, Nikolai; Krishna Singh, Shri; Kostoglodov, Vladimir

2010-05-01

We measure temporal change of the seismic velocity in the crust below the Guerrero region during the 2006 slow sleep event (SSE). We use repeated cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise recorded at 26 broad-band stations of the MesoAmerica Seismic Experiment (MASE). The cross-correlations are computed over 90 days with a moving window of 10 days from January 2005 to July 2007. To insure measurements independent of noise source variations, we only take into account the travel time change within the coda. For period of 8 to 20s, we observe a decrease in velocity starting in April 2006 with a maximum change of -0.3% of the initial velocity in June 2006. At these periods, the Rayleigh waves are sensitive to velocity changes down to the lower crust. In the other hand, we compute the deformation rate below the MASE array from a slip propagation model of the SSE observed by means of the displacement time-series of 15 continuous GPS stations. Slip initiates in the western part of the Guerrero Gap and propagates southeastward. The propagation velocity is of the order of 1 km/day. We then compare the seismic velocity change measured from continuous seismological data with the deformation rate inferred from geodetic measurements below the MASE array. We obtain a good agreement between the time of maximal seismic velocity change (July 2006) and the time of maximum deformation associated with the SSE (July to August 2006). This result shows that the long-term velocity change associated with the SSE can be detected using continuous seismic recordings. Since the SSE does not emit seismic waves, which interact with the superficial layers, the result indicates that the velocity change is due to deformation at depth.

Stress Field Variation after the 2001 Skyros Earthquake, Greece, Derived from Seismicity Rate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leptokaropoulos, K.; Papadimitriou, E.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Karakostas, V.

2012-04-01

The spatial variation of the stress field (ΔCFF) after the 2001 strong (Mw=6.4) Skyros earthquake in North Aegean Sea, Greece, is investigated in association with the changes of earthquake production rates. A detailed slip model is considered in which the causative fault is consisted of several sub-faults with different coseismic slip onto each one of them. First the spatial distribution of aftershock productivity is compared with the static stress changes due to the coseismic slip. Calculations of ΔCFF are performed at different depths inside the seismogenic layer, defined from the vertical distribution of the aftershocks. Seismicity rates of the smaller magnitude events with M≥Mc for different time increments before and after the main shock are then derived from the application of a Probability Density Function (PDF). These rates are computed by spatially smoothing the seismicity and for this purpose a normal grid of rectangular cells is superimposed onto the area and the PDF determines seismicity rate values at the center of each cell. The differences between the earthquake occurrence rates before and after the main shock are compared and used as input data in a stress inversion algorithm based upon the Rate/State dependent friction concept in order to provide an independent estimation of stress changes. This model incorporates the physical properties of the fault zones (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, effective friction coefficient) with a probabilistic estimation of the spatial distribution of seismicity rates, derived from the application of the PDF. The stress patterns derived from the previously mentioned approaches are compared and the quantitative correlation between the respective results is accomplished by the evaluation of Pearson linear correlation coefficient and its confidence intervals to quantify their significance. Different assumptions and combinations of the physical and statistical parameters are tested for

Evaluation of induced seismicity forecast models in the Induced Seismicity Test Bench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Zechar, Jeremy; Doetsch, Joseph; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Wiemer, Stefan

2016-04-01

Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward-looking, and updated as new data arrive. Here, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models that incorporate a different mix of physical understanding and stochastic representation of the induced sequences: Shapiro in Space (SiS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). SiS is based on three pillars: the seismicity rate is computed with help of the seismogenic index and a simple exponential decay of the seismicity; the magnitude distribution follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation; and seismicity is distributed in space based on smoothing seismicity during the learning period with 3D Gaussian kernels. The HySei model describes seismicity triggered by pressure diffusion with irreversible permeability enhancement. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. HySei forecasts the seismicity rate well, but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SiS forecasts the spatial distribution well but not the seismicity rate. The shut-in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut-in. Ensemble models that combine HySei's rate forecast with SiS's spatial forecast outperform each individual model.

Validating induced seismicity forecast models—Induced Seismicity Test Bench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Király-Proag, Eszter; Zechar, J. Douglas; Gischig, Valentin; Wiemer, Stefan; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Doetsch, Joseph

2016-08-01

Induced earthquakes often accompany fluid injection, and the seismic hazard they pose threatens various underground engineering projects. Models to monitor and control induced seismic hazard with traffic light systems should be probabilistic, forward-looking, and updated as new data arrive. In this study, we propose an Induced Seismicity Test Bench to test and rank such models; this test bench can be used for model development, model selection, and ensemble model building. We apply the test bench to data from the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 geothermal stimulation projects, and we assess forecasts from two models: Shapiro and Smoothed Seismicity (SaSS) and Hydraulics and Seismics (HySei). These models incorporate a different mix of physics-based elements and stochastic representation of the induced sequences. Our results show that neither model is fully superior to the other. Generally, HySei forecasts the seismicity rate better after shut-in but is only mediocre at forecasting the spatial distribution. On the other hand, SaSS forecasts the spatial distribution better and gives better seismicity rate estimates before shut-in. The shut-in phase is a difficult moment for both models in both reservoirs: the models tend to underpredict the seismicity rate around, and shortly after, shut-in.

A probabilistic assessment of waste water injection induced seismicity in central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goebel, T.; Hauksson, E.; Ampuero, J. P.; Aminzadeh, F.; Cappa, F.; Saleeby, J.

2014-12-01

The recent, large increase in seismic activity within the central and eastern U.S. may be connected to an increase in fluid injection activity since ~2001. Anomalous seismic sequences can easily be identified in regions with low background seismicity rates. Here, we analyze seismicity in plate boundary regions where tectonically-driven earthquake sequences are common, potentially masking injection-induced events. We show results from a comprehensive analysis of waste water disposal wells in Kern county, the largest oil-producing county in California. We focus on spatial-temporal correlations between seismic and injection activity and seismicity-density changes due to injection. We perform a probabilistic assessment of induced vs. tectonic earthquakes, which can be applied to different regions independent of background rates and may provide insights into the probability of inducing earthquakes as a function of injection parameters and local geological conditions. Our results show that most earthquakes are caused by tectonic forcing, however, waste water injection contributes to seismic activity in four different regions with several events above M4. The seismicity shows different migration characteristics relative to the injection sites, including linear and non-linear trends. The latter is indicative of diffusive processes which take advantage of reservoir properties and fault structures and can induce earthquakes at distances of up to 10 km. Our results suggest that injection-related triggering processes are complex, possibly involving creep, and delayed triggering. Pore-pressure diffusion may be more extensive in the presence of active faults and high-permeability damage zones thus altering the local seismic hazard in a non-linear fashion. As a consequence, generic "best-practices" for fluid injections like a maximum distance from the nearest active fault may not be sufficient to mitigate a potential seismic hazard increase.

A decade of passive seismic monitoring experiments with local networks in four Italian regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiaraluce, L.; Valoroso, L.; Anselmi, M.; Bagh, S.; Chiarabba, C.

2009-10-01

We report on four seismic monitoring experiments that in the past ten years we carried out with dense local networks in seismically active Italian areas where for at least a year, tens of three component seismic stations were set up to record microseismicity. The areas observed are Alpago-Cansiglio, located in the Venetian Alps, Città di Castello in the Northern Apennines, Marsica in the Central Apennines and Val d'Agri located in the Southern Apennines. We produced homogeneous catalogues regarding earthquake locations and local magnitudes to investigate seismicity patterns during an inter-seismic period. The four regions are characterised by different kinematics, strain rates and historical/recent seismicity. We investigate earthquake distribution in space, time and size obtaining reference seismic rates and parameters of the Gutenberg and Richter law. We declustered the catalogues to look for coherent signs in the background seismic activity. Despite a difference in the catalogues magnitudes of completeness due both to the diverse detection threshold of the local networks and different seismic release, we detect and observe two common main behaviours: a) The Alpago-Cansiglio and Marsica regions are characterised by a relatively lower rate of seismic release associated to the episodic occurrence of seismic sequences with the largest event being 3 < ML < 4. In these areas the seismicity is not localised around the main faults. b) The Città di Castello and Val d'Agri regions have a relatively high rate of seismicity release almost continuously with time, and the increase in earthquake production is not clearly related to seismic sequences. In these areas the seismicity nucleates around defined fault systems and is usually lower than ML < 3. We suggest that the presence of over-pressured fluids in the Città di Castello and Val d'Agri uppermost crustal volume may favour and mould the higher rate of microseismic release.

Using regional pore-fluid pressure response following the 3 Sep 2016 M­­w5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake to constrain far-field seismicity rate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Murray, K. E.; Cochran, E. S.

2016-12-01

The 3 Sep 2016 M­­w5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake was the largest event to occur in recorded history of the state. Widespread shaking from the event was felt in seven central U.S. states and caused damage as far away as Oklahoma City ( 115 km SSW). The Pawnee earthquake occurred soon after the deployment of a subsurface pore-fluid pressure monitoring network in Aug 2016. Eight pressure transducers were installed downhole in inactive saltwater disposal wells that were completed in the basal sedimentary zone (the Arbuckle Group). The transducers are located in Alfalfa, Grant, and Payne Counties at distances of 48 to 140 km from the Pawnee earthquake. We observed coseismic fluid pressure changes in all monitoring wells, indicating a large-scale poroelastic response in the Arbuckle. Two wells in Payne County lie in a zone of volumetric compression 48-52 km SSE of the rupture and experienced a co-seismic rise in fluid pressures that we conclude was related to poroelastic rebound of the Arbuckle reservoir. We compare measurements of the pore-fluid pressure change to estimated values given by the product of the volumetric strain, a Skempton's coefficient of 0.33, and a Bulk modulus of 25 GPa for fractured granitic basement rocks. We explore the possibility that the small increase in pore-fluid pressure may increase the rate of seismicity in regions outside of the mainshock region. We test this hypothesis by supplementing the Oklahoma Geological Survey earthquake catalog by semi-automated detection smaller magnitude (<2.6 M) earthquakes on seismic stations that are located in the vicinity of the wells. Using the events that occur in the week before the mainshock (27 Aug to 3 Sep 2016) as the background seismicity rate and the estimated pore-fluid pressure increase, we use a rate-state model to predict the seismicity rate change in the week following the event. We then compare the model predictions to the observed seismicity in the week following the Pawnee earthquake

Relative Contributions of Geothermal Pumping and Long-Term Earthquake Rate to Seismicity at California Geothermal Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, D. A.; Jackson, D. D.

2015-12-01

In a tectonically active area, a definitive discrimination between geothermally-induced and tectonic earthquakes is difficult to achieve. We focus our study on California's 11 major geothermal fields: Amedee, Brawley, Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, The Geysers, Heber, Litchfield, Salton Sea, Susanville, and Wendel. The Geysers geothermal field is the world's largest geothermal energy producer. California's Department of Oil Gas and Geothermal Resources provides field-wide monthly injection and production volumes for each of these sites, which allows us to study the relationship between geothermal pumping activities and seismicity. Since many of the geothermal fields began injecting and producing before nearby seismic stations were installed, we use smoothed seismicity since 1932 from the ANSS catalog as a proxy for tectonic earthquake rate. We examine both geothermal pumping and long-term earthquake rate as factors that may control earthquake rate. Rather than focusing only on the largest earthquake, which is essentially a random occurrence in time, we examine how M≥4 earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) varies for each field. We estimate relative contributions to the observed earthquake rate of M≥4 from both a long-term earthquake rate (Kagan and Jackson, 2010) and pumping activity. For each geothermal field, respective earthquake catalogs (NCEDC and SCSN) are complete above at least M3 during the test period (which we tailor to each site). We test the hypothesis that the observed earthquake rate at a geothermal site during the test period is a linear combination of the long-term seismicity and pumping rates. We use a grid search to determine the confidence interval of the weighting parameters.

Background noise spectra of global seismic stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wada, M.M.; Claassen, J.P.

1996-08-01

Over an extended period of time station noise spectra were collected from various sources for use in estimating the detection and location performance of global networks of seismic stations. As the database of noise spectra enlarged and duplicate entries became available, an effort was mounted to more carefully select station noise spectra while discarding others. This report discusses the methodology and criteria by which the noise spectra were selected. It also identifies and illustrates the station noise spectra which survived the selection process and which currently contribute to the modeling efforts. The resulting catalog of noise statistics not only benefitsmore » those who model network performance but also those who wish to select stations on the basis of their noise level as may occur in designing networks or in selecting seismological data for analysis on the basis of station noise level. In view of the various ways by which station noise were estimated by the different contributors, it is advisable that future efforts which predict network performance have available station noise data and spectral estimation methods which are compatible with the statistics underlying seismic noise. This appropriately requires (1) averaging noise over seasonal and/or diurnal cycles, (2) averaging noise over time intervals comparable to those employed by actual detectors, and (3) using logarithmic measures of the noise.« less

An experimental overview of the seismic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Violay, M.; Passelegue, F. X.; Nielsen, S. B.; Di Toro, G.

2017-12-01

Earthquake nucleation is the last stage of the inter-seismic cycle where the fault surface evolves through the interplay of friction, healing, stress perturbations and strain events. Slip stability under rate-and state friction has been extensively discussed in terms of loading point velocity and equivalent fault stiffness, but fault evolution towards seismic runaway under complex loading histories (e.g. slow variations of tectonic stress, stress transfer from impulsive nearby seismic events) is not yet fully investigated. Nevertheless, the short term earthquake forecasting is based precisely on a relation between seismic productivity and loading history which remains up to date still largely unresolved. To this end we propose a novel experimental approach which avails of a closed loop control of the shear stress, a nominally infinite equivalent slip and transducers for continuous monitoring of acoustic emissions. This experimental simulation allows us to study the stress dependency and temporal evolution of spontaneous slip events occurring on a pre-existing fault subjected to different loading histories. The experimental fault has an initial roughness which mimic a population of randomly distributed asperities, which here are used as a proxy for patches which are either far or close to failure on an extended fault. Our observations suggest that the increase of shear stress may trigger either spontaneous slow slip (creep) or short-lived stick-slip bursts, eventually leading to a fast slip instability (seismic runaway) when slip rates are larger than a few cm/s. The event type and the slip rate are regulated at first order by the background shear stress whereas the ultimate strength of the entire fault is dominated by the number of asperities close to failure under a stress step. The extrapolation of these results to natural conditions might explain the plethora of events that often characterize seismic sequences. Nonetheless this experimental approach helps the

Seismicity rate surge on faults after shut-in: poroelastic response to fluid injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. W.; Yoon, H.; Martinez, M. J.

2017-12-01

Subsurface energy activities such as geological CO2 storage and wastewater injection require injecting large amounts of fluid into the subsurface, which will alter the states of pore pressure and stress in the storage formation. One of the main issues for injection-induced seismicity is the post shut-in increases in the seismicity rate, often observed in the fluid-injection operation sites. The rate surge can be driven by the following mechanisms: (1) pore-pressure propagation into distant faults after shut-in and (2) poroelastic stressing caused by well operations, depending on fault geometry, hydraulic and mechanical properties of the formation, and injection history. We simulate the aerial view of the target reservoir intersected by strike-slip faults, in which injection-induced pressure buildup encounters the faults directly. We examine the poroelastic response of the faults to fluid injection and perform a series of sensitivity tests considering: (1) permeability of the fault zone, (2) locations and the number of faults with respect to the injection point, and (3) well operations with varying the injection rate. Our analysis of the Coulomb stress change suggests that the sealing fault confines pressure diffusion which stabilizes or weakens the nearby conductive fault depending on the injection location. We perform the sensitivity test by changing injection scenarios (time-dependent rates), while keeping the total amount of injected fluids. Sensitivity analysis shows that gradual reduction of the injection rate minimizes the Coulomb stress change and the least seismicity rates are predicted. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?

PubMed Central

Langenbruch, Cornelius; Zoback, Mark D.

2016-01-01

In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas. PMID:28138533

Dominant seismic sources for the cities in South Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunardi, Bambang; Sakya, Andi Eka; Masturyono, Murjaya, Jaya; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri, Putra, Ade Surya

2017-07-01

Subduction zone along west of Sumatra and Sumatran fault zone are active seismic sources. Seismotectonically, South Sumatra could be affected by earthquakes triggered by these seismic sources. This paper discussed contribution of each seismic source to earthquake hazards for cities of Palembang, Prabumulih, Banyuasin, OganIlir, Ogan Komering Ilir, South Oku, Musi Rawas and Empat Lawang. These hazards are presented in form of seismic hazard curves. The study was conducted by using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Seismic sources used in analysis included megathrust zone M2 of Sumatra and South Sumatra, background seismic sources and shallow crustal seismic sources consist of Ketaun, Musi, Manna and Kumering faults. The results of the study showed that for cities relatively far from the seismic sources, subduction / megathrust seismic source with a depth ≤ 50 km greatly contributed to the seismic hazard and the other areas showed deep background seismic sources with a depth of more than 100 km dominate to seismic hazard respectively.

Site Amplification Characteristics of the Several Seismic Stations at Jeju Island, in Korea, using S-wave Energy, Background Noise, and Coda waves from the East Japan earthquake (Mar. 11th, 2011) Series.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seong-hwa, Y.; Wee, S.; Kim, J.

2016-12-01

Observed ground motions are composed of 3 main factors such as seismic source, seismic wave attenuation and site amplification. Among them, site amplification is also important factor and should be considered to estimate soil-structure dynamic interaction with more reliability. Though various estimation methods are suggested, this study used the method by Castro et. al.(1997) for estimating site amplification. This method has been extended to background noise, coda waves and S waves recently for estimating site amplification. This study applied the Castro et. al.(1997)'s method to 3 different seismic waves, that is, S-wave Energy, Background Noise, and Coda waves. This study analysed much more than about 200 ground motions (acceleration type) from the East Japan earthquake (March 11th, 2011) Series of seismic stations at Jeju Island (JJU, SGP, HALB, SSP and GOS; Fig. 1), in Korea. The results showed that most of the seismic stations gave similar results among three types of seismic energies. Each station showed its own characteristics of site amplification property in low, high and specific resonance frequency ranges. Comparison of this study to other studies can give us much information about dynamic amplification of domestic sites characteristics and site classification.

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalalhosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Zafarani, Hamid; Zare, Mehdi

2018-01-01

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.

Human-induced seismicity and large-scale hydrocarbon production in the USA and Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Baan, Mirko; Calixto, Frank J.

2017-07-01

We compare current and historic seismicity rates in six States in the USA and three Provinces in Canada to past and present hydrocarbon production. All States/Provinces are major hydrocarbon producers. Our analyses span three to five decades depending on data availability. Total hydrocarbon production has significantly increased in the past few years in these regions. Increased production in most areas is due to large-scale hydraulic fracturing and thus underground fluid injection. Furthermore, increased hydrocarbon production generally leads to increased water production, which must be treated, recycled, or disposed of underground. Increased fluid injection enhances the likelihood of fault reactivation, which may affect current seismicity rates. We find that increased seismicity in Oklahoma, likely due to salt-water disposal, has an 85% correlation with oil production. Yet, the other areas do not display State/Province-wide correlations between increased seismicity and production, despite 8-16-fold increases in production in some States. However, in various cases, seismicity has locally increased. Multiple factors play an important role in determining the likelihood of anthropogenic activities influencing earthquake rates, including (i) the near-surface tectonic background rate, (ii) the existence of critically stressed and favorably oriented faults, which must be hydraulically connected to injection wells, (iii) the orientation and magnitudes of the in situ stress field, combined with (iv) the injection volumes and implemented depletion strategies. A comparison with the seismic hazard maps for the USA and Canada shows that induced seismicity is less likely in areas with a lower hazard. The opposite, however, is not necessarily true.

Spatial and temporal distribution of the seismicity along two mid-oceanic ridges with contrasted spreading rates in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang-Hin-Sun, E.; Perrot, J.; Royer, J. Y.

2015-12-01

The seismicity of the ultra-slow spreading Southwest (14 mm/y) and intermediate spreading Southeast (60 mm/y) Indian ridges was monitored from February 2012 to March 2013 by the OHASISBIO array of 7 autonomous hydrophones. A total of 1471 events were located with 4 instruments or more, inside the array, with a median location uncertainty < 5 km and a completeness magnitude of mb = 3. Both ridges display similar average rates of seismicity, suggesting that there is no systematic relationship between seismicity and spreading rates. Accretion modes do differ, however, by the along-axis distribution of the seismic events. Along the ultra-slow Southwest Indian Ridge, events are sparse but regularly spaced and scattered up to 50 km off-axis. Along the fast Southeast Indian Ridge, events are irregularly distributed, focusing in narrow regions near the ridge axis at segment ends and along transform faults, whereas ridge-segment centers generally appear as seismic gaps (at the level of completeness of the array). Only two clusters, 6 months apart, are identified in a segment-center at 29°S. From the temporal distribution of the clustered events and comparisons with observations in similar mid-oceanic ridge setting, both clusters seem to have a volcanic origin and to be related to a dike emplacement or a possible eruption on the seafloor. Their onset time and migration rate are comparable to volcanic swarms recorded along the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Overall, the rate of seismicity along the two Indian spreading ridges correlates with the large-scale variations in the bathymetry and shear-wave velocity anomaly in the upper mantle, suggesting that the distribution of the low-magnitude seismicity is mainly controlled by along-axis variations in the lithosphere rheology and temperature.

Hydrologically-driven crustal stresses and seismicity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

PubMed

Craig, Timothy J; Chanard, Kristel; Calais, Eric

2017-12-15

The degree to which short-term non-tectonic processes, either natural and anthropogenic, influence the occurrence of earthquakes in active tectonic settings or 'stable' plate interiors, remains a subject of debate. Recent work in plate-boundary regions demonstrates the capacity for long-wavelength changes in continental water storage to produce observable surface deformation, induce crustal stresses and modulate seismicity rates. Here we show that a significant variation in the rate of microearthquakes in the intraplate New Madrid Seismic Zone at annual and multi-annual timescales coincides with hydrological loading in the upper Mississippi embayment. We demonstrate that this loading, which results in geodetically observed surface deformation, induces stresses within the lithosphere that, although of small amplitude, modulate the ongoing seismicity of the New Madrid region. Correspondence between surface deformation, hydrological loading and seismicity rates at both annual and multi-annual timescales indicates that seismicity variations are the direct result of elastic stresses induced by the water load.

Modelling and forecasting 3D-hypocentre seismicity in the Kanto region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yicun; Zhuang, Jiancang; Hirata, Naoshi

2018-04-01

This study analyses the seismicity in the Kanto region by fitting the 2D-epicentre and 3D-hypocentre ETAS models to the JMA catalogue for events above magnitude M4.0. In the 3D ETAS model, the focal depth is assumed to follow the beta distribution. Compared with results from the 2D-epicentre ETAS model, the 3D ETAS model greatly improves the data fitting. In addition, the stochastic reconstruction method is used when validating the results of the 3D ETAS model, with results indicating that the shallow events are more productive and their aftershocks decay slightly faster in the time and epicentre dimensions. We also study the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The direct aftershocks of events from the post-Tohoku period are more diffusive in time and epicentre but more concentrated in depth. The seismicity rate increases significantly following the Tohoku earthquake, especially along the interface of the subducting Pacific plate. The curve of cumulative background probabilities for events above M4.0 implies that the background rate decays back to the pre-Tohoku level in about 5 years after the Tohoku earthquake. However, the occurrence rates of smaller events (from M2.0 to M4.0) indicate that the adjustments of local stress field continue at finer scales. Finally, we verify that the 3D model can reproduce the focal depths better than the 2D model and improve the forecasting performance.

Space-Time Earthquake Rate Models for One-Year Hazard Forecasts in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

2017-12-01

The recent one-year seismic hazard assessments for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern US (CEUS) (Petersen et al., 2016, 2017) rely on earthquake rate models based on declustered catalogs (i.e., catalogs with foreshocks and aftershocks removed), as is common practice in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. However, standard declustering can remove over 90% of some induced sequences in the CEUS. Some of these earthquakes may still be capable of causing damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015, 2016). The choices of whether and how to decluster can lead to seismicity rate estimates that vary by up to factors of 10-20 (Llenos and Michael, AGU, 2016). Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of hazard assessments, we are exploring ways to make forecasts based on full, rather than declustered, catalogs. We focus on Oklahoma, where earthquake rates began increasing in late 2009 mainly in central Oklahoma and ramped up substantially in 2013 with the expansion of seismicity into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We develop earthquake rate models using the space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Ogata, AISM, 1998; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002), which characterizes both the background seismicity rate as well as aftershock triggering. We examine changes in the model parameters over time, focusing particularly on background rate, which reflects earthquakes that are triggered by external driving forces such as fluid injection rather than other earthquakes. After the model parameters are fit to the seismicity data from a given year, forecasts of the full catalog for the following year can then be made using a suite of 100,000 ETAS model simulations based on those parameters. To evaluate this approach, we develop pseudo-prospective yearly forecasts for Oklahoma from 2013-2016 and compare them with the observations using standard Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability tests for consistency.

Dependence of Subduction Zone seismicity on Strain-Rate-Dependent Critical Homologous Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, P. M.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes mainly occur in crust or mantle that is below a critical temperature for the tectonic strain-rate, such that stress builds up to the breaking point before it can relax due to creep. Then long-range stress correlation gives rise to power law seismicity with large events. The limiting temperature depends on pressure, which is taken into account by finding a critical homologous temperature THc=T/TM above which earthquakes are rarely observed. We find that THc for ocean plates is ˜0.55. For California earthquakes, it is also close to 0.55. The uppermost mantle layer of oceanic plates of thickness ˜50 km is composed of harzburgite and depleted peridotite from which basalt has been removed to form ocean crust. Thus it has a higher melting temperature than the peridotite of the surrounding mantle, or the lower halves of plates. Thicknesses of seismicity in deep subduction zones, determined from 2D polynomial fits to a relocated catalog, are ˜50 km, which suggests that the earthquake channel is confined to this layer. We construct models to find homologous temperatures in slabs, and find that seismicity thicknesses are also, on average, confined to TH ≤ 0.55 ± 0.05. The associated rheology is compared with that obtained from flexure models of ocean lithosphere. The brittle-ductile transition occurs where viscosity drops from high values in the cold cores of slabs to values of 1022 to $1023 Pa s, i.e., where creep strain-rates become comparable to tectonic rates. The cutoff for deep earthquakes is not sharp. However they appear unlikely to occur if homologous temperature is high TH>0.55. Exceptions to the rule are anomalously deep earthquakes such as those beneath the Iceland and the Hawaiian hotspots, and the Newport Inglewood Fault. These are smaller events with short-range stress correlation, and can be explained if strain-rates are 2 to 3 orders of magnitude higher than those associated with earthquakes located where TH ≤0.55. We conclude that the

Properties of the seismic nucleation phase

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beroza, G.C.; Ellsworth, W.L.

1996-01-01

Near-source observations show that earthquakes begin abruptly at the P-wave arrival, but that this beginning is weak, with a low moment rate relative to the rest of the main shock. We term this initial phase of low moment rate the seismic nucleation phase. We have observed the seismic nucleation phase for a set of 48 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 1.1-8.1. The size and duration of the seismic nucleation phase scale with the total seismic moment of the earthquake, suggesting that the process responsible for the seismic nucleation phase carries information about the eventual size of the earthquake. The seismic nucleation phase is characteristically followed by quadratic growth in the moment rate, consistent with self-similar rupture at constant stress drop. In this paper we quantify the properties of the seismic nucleation phase and offer several possible explanations for it.

41 CFR 128-1.8004 - Seismic Safety Coordinators.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Management Regulations System (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE 1-INTRODUCTION 1.80-Seismic Safety Program... individual with technical training, engineering experience and a seismic background as the Department of...

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and

Probabilistic properties of injection induced seismicity - implications for the seismic hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasocki, Stanislaw; Urban, Pawel; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Martinez-Garzón, Particia

2017-04-01

-to-use functional model. In this connection, we recommend to use in hazard analyses non-parametric, kernel estimators of magnitude distribution. The earthquake occurrence process of IIS is not a Poisson process. When earthquakes' occurrences are influenced by a multitude of inducing factors, the interevent time distribution can be modelled by the Weibull distribution supporting a negative ageing property of the process. When earthquake occurrences are due to a specific injection activity, the earthquake rate directly depends on the injection rate and responds immediately to the changes of the injection rate. Furthermore, this response is not limited only to correlated variations of the seismic activity but it also concerns significant changes of the shape of interevent time distribution. Unlike the event rate, the shape of magnitude distribution does not exhibit correlation with the injection rate. This work was supported within SHEER: "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" project funded from Horizon 2020 - R&I Framework Programme, call H2020-LCE 16-2014-1 and within statutory activities No3841/E-41/S/2016 of Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland.

Demonstration of improved seismic source inversion method of tele-seismic body wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic rupture inversion of tele-seismic body wave has been widely applied to studies of large earthquakes. In general, tele-seismic body wave contains information of overall rupture process of large earthquake, while the tele-seismic body wave is inappropriate for analyzing a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake. Recently, the quality and quantity of tele-seismic data and the inversion method has been greatly improved. Improved data and method enable us to study a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake even if we use only tele-seismic body wave. In this study, we demonstrate the ability of the improved data and method through analyses of the 2016 Rieti, Italy earthquake (Mw 6.2) and the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan earthquake (Mw 7.0) that have been well investigated by using the InSAR data set and the field observations. We assumed the rupture occurring on a single fault plane model inferred from the moment tensor solutions and the aftershock distribution. We constructed spatiotemporal discretized slip-rate functions with patches arranged as closely as possible. We performed inversions using several fault models and found that the spatiotemporal location of large slip-rate area was robust. In the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan earthquake, the slip-rate distribution shows that the rupture propagated to southwest during the first 5 s. At 5 s after the origin time, the main rupture started to propagate toward northeast. First episode and second episode correspond to rupture propagation along the Hinagu fault and the Futagawa fault, respectively. In the 2016 Rieti, Italy earthquake, the slip-rate distribution shows that the rupture propagated to up-dip direction during the first 2 s, and then rupture propagated toward northwest. From both analyses, we propose that the spatiotemporal slip-rate distribution estimated by improved inversion method of tele-seismic body wave has enough information to study a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake.

Sensitivity of Induced Seismic Sequences to Rate-and-State Frictional Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, Kayla A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Dieterich, James H.

2017-12-01

It is well established that subsurface injection of fluids increases pore fluid pressures that may lead to shear failure along a preexisting fault surface. Concern among oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon storage operators has risen dramatically over the past decade due to the increase in the number and magnitude of induced earthquakes. Efforts to mitigate the risk associated with injection-induced earthquakes include modeling of the interaction between fluids and earthquake faults. Here we investigate this relationship with simulations that couple a geomechanical reservoir model and RSQSim, a physics-based earthquake simulator. RSQSim employs rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) that enables the investigation of the time-dependent nature of earthquake sequences. We explore the effect of two RSF parameters and normal stress on the spatiotemporal characteristics of injection-induced seismicity. We perform >200 simulations to systematically investigate the effect of these model components on the evolution of induced seismicity sequences and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of our synthetic catalogs to observations of induced earthquakes. We find that the RSF parameters control the ability of seismicity to migrate away from the injection well, the total number and maximum magnitude of induced events. Additionally, the RSF parameters control the occurrence/absence of premonitory events. Lastly, we find that earthquake stress drops can be modulated by the normal stress and/or the RSF parameters. Insight gained from this study can aid in further development of models that address best practice protocols for injection operations, site-specific models of injection-induced earthquakes, and probabilistic hazard and risk assessments.

Sensitivity of Induced Seismic Sequences to Rate-and-State Frictional Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroll, Kayla A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Dieterich, James H.

It is well established that subsurface injection of fluids increases pore fluid pressures that may lead to shear failure along a preexisting fault surface. Concern among oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon storage operators has risen dramatically over the past decade due to the increase in the number and magnitude of induced earthquakes. Efforts to mitigate the risk associated with injection-induced earthquakes include modeling of the interaction between fluids and earthquake faults. Here we investigate this relationship with simulations that couple a geomechanical reservoir model and RSQSim, a physics-based earthquake simulator. RSQSim employs rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) that enablesmore » the investigation of the time-dependent nature of earthquake sequences. We explore the effect of two RSF parameters and normal stress on the spatiotemporal characteristics of injection-induced seismicity. We perform >200 simulations to systematically investigate the effect of these model components on the evolution of induced seismicity sequences and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of our synthetic catalogs to observations of induced earthquakes. We find that the RSF parameters control the ability of seismicity to migrate away from the injection well, the total number and maximum magnitude of induced events. Additionally, the RSF parameters control the occurrence/absence of premonitory events. Finally, we find that earthquake stress drops can be modulated by the normal stress and/or the RSF parameters. Insight gained from this study can aid in further development of models that address best practice protocols for injection operations, site-specific models of injection-induced earthquakes, and probabilistic hazard and risk assessments.« less

Sensitivity of Induced Seismic Sequences to Rate-and-State Frictional Processes

DOE PAGES

Kroll, Kayla A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Dieterich, James H.

2017-11-09

It is well established that subsurface injection of fluids increases pore fluid pressures that may lead to shear failure along a preexisting fault surface. Concern among oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon storage operators has risen dramatically over the past decade due to the increase in the number and magnitude of induced earthquakes. Efforts to mitigate the risk associated with injection-induced earthquakes include modeling of the interaction between fluids and earthquake faults. Here we investigate this relationship with simulations that couple a geomechanical reservoir model and RSQSim, a physics-based earthquake simulator. RSQSim employs rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) that enablesmore » the investigation of the time-dependent nature of earthquake sequences. We explore the effect of two RSF parameters and normal stress on the spatiotemporal characteristics of injection-induced seismicity. We perform >200 simulations to systematically investigate the effect of these model components on the evolution of induced seismicity sequences and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of our synthetic catalogs to observations of induced earthquakes. We find that the RSF parameters control the ability of seismicity to migrate away from the injection well, the total number and maximum magnitude of induced events. Additionally, the RSF parameters control the occurrence/absence of premonitory events. Finally, we find that earthquake stress drops can be modulated by the normal stress and/or the RSF parameters. Insight gained from this study can aid in further development of models that address best practice protocols for injection operations, site-specific models of injection-induced earthquakes, and probabilistic hazard and risk assessments.« less

Sustained long-period seismicity at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Tanja; Caplan-Auerbach, Jacqueline; McNutt, Stephen R.

2006-01-01

From September 1999 through April 2004, Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, exhibited a continuous and extremely high level of background seismicity. This activity consisted of many hundreds to thousands of long-period (LP; 1–2 Hz) earthquakes per day, recorded by a 6-station monitoring network around Shishaldin. The LP events originate beneath the summit at shallow depths (0–3 km). Volcano tectonic events and tremor have rarely been observed in the summit region. Such a high rate of LP events with no eruption suggests that a steady state process has been occurring ever since Shishaldin last erupted in April–May 1999. Following the eruption, the only other signs of volcanic unrest have been occasional weak thermal anomalies and an omnipresent puffing volcanic plume. The LP waveforms are nearly identical for time spans of days to months, but vary over longer time scales. The observations imply that the spatially close source processes are repeating, stable and non-destructive. Event sizes vary, but the rate of occurrence remains roughly constant. The events range from magnitude ∼0.1 to 1.8, with most events having magnitudes <1.0. The observations suggest that the conduit system is open and capable of releasing a large amount of energy, approximately equivalent to at least one magnitude 1.8–2.6 earthquake per day. The rate of observed puffs (1 per minute) in the steam plume is similar to the typical seismic rates, suggesting that the LP events are directly related to degassing processes. However, the source mechanism, capable of producing one LP event about every 0.5–5 min, is still poorly understood. Shishaldin's seismicity is unusual in its sustained high rate of LP events without accompanying eruptive activity. Every indication is that the high rate of seismicity will continue without reflecting a hazardous state. Sealing of the conduit and/or change in gas flux, however, would be expected to change Shishaldin's behavior.

A Seismic Source Model for Central Europe and Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyst, M.; Williams, C.; Onur, T.

2006-12-01

We present a seismic source model for Central Europe (Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, and Austria) and Italy, as part of an overall seismic risk and loss modeling project for this region. A separate presentation at this conference discusses the probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment (Williams et al., 2006). Where available we adopt regional consensus models and adjusts these to fit our format, otherwise we develop our own model. Our seismic source model covers the whole region under consideration and consists of the following components: 1. A subduction zone environment in Calabria, SE Italy, with interface events between the Eurasian and African plates and intraslab events within the subducting slab. The subduction zone interface is parameterized as a set of dipping area sources that follow the geometry of the surface of the subducting plate, whereas intraslab events are modeled as plane sources at depth; 2. The main normal faults in the upper crust along the Apennines mountain range, in Calabria and Central Italy. Dipping faults and (sub-) vertical faults are parameterized as dipping plane and line sources, respectively; 3. The Upper and Lower Rhine Graben regime that runs from northern Italy into eastern Belgium, parameterized as a combination of dipping plane and line sources, and finally 4. Background seismicity, parameterized as area sources. The fault model is based on slip rates using characteristic recurrence. The modeling of background and subduction zone seismicity is based on a compilation of several national and regional historic seismic catalogs using a Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model. Merging the catalogs encompasses the deletion of double, fake and very old events and the application of a declustering algorithm (Reasenberg, 2000). The resulting catalog contains a little over 6000 events, has an average b-value of -0.9, is complete for moment magnitudes 4.5 and larger, and is used to compute a gridded a-value model (smoothed historical

Precision Seismic Monitoring of Volcanic Eruptions at Axial Seamount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhauser, F.; Wilcock, W. S. D.; Tolstoy, M.; Baillard, C.; Tan, Y. J.; Schaff, D. P.

2017-12-01

Seven permanent ocean bottom seismometers of the Ocean Observatories Initiative's real time cabled observatory at Axial Seamount off the coast of the western United States record seismic activity since 2014. The array captured the April 2015 eruption, shedding light on the detailed structure and dynamics of the volcano and the Juan de Fuca midocean ridge system (Wilcock et al., 2016). After a period of continuously increasing seismic activity primarily associated with the reactivation of caldera ring faults, and the subsequent seismic crisis on April 24, 2015 with 7000 recorded events that day, seismicity rates steadily declined and the array currently records an average of 5 events per day. Here we present results from ongoing efforts to automatically detect and precisely locate seismic events at Axial in real-time, providing the computational framework and fundamental data that will allow rapid characterization and analysis of spatio-temporal changes in seismogenic properties. We combine a kurtosis-based P- and S-phase onset picker and time domain cross-correlation detection and phase delay timing algorithms together with single-event and double-difference location methods to rapidly and precisely (tens of meters) compute the location and magnitudes of new events with respect to a 2-year long, high-resolution background catalog that includes nearly 100,000 events within a 5×5 km region. We extend the real-time double-difference location software DD-RT to efficiently handle the anticipated high-rate and high-density earthquake activity during future eruptions. The modular monitoring framework will allow real-time tracking of other seismic events such as tremors and sea-floor lava explosions that enable the timing and location of lava flows and thus guide response research cruises to the most interesting sites. Finally, rapid detection of eruption precursors and initiation will allow for adaptive sampling by the OOI instruments for optimal recording of future

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschetti, M. P.; Mueller, C. S.; Boyd, O. S.; Petersen, M. D.

2013-12-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2014-01-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood

Constraints on the frequency-magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, Ian; Irving, Duncan; Musson, Roger; Reading, Anya

1999-05-01

Earthquake populations have recently been shown to have many similarities with critical-point phenomena, with fractal scaling of source sizes (energy or seismic moment) corresponding to the observed Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude law holding at low magnitudes. At high magnitudes, the form of the distribution depends on the seismic moment release rate Msolar and the maximum magnitude m_max . The G-R law requires a sharp truncation at an absolute maximum magnitude for finite Msolar. In contrast, the gamma distribution has an exponential tail which allows a soft or `credible' maximum to be determined by negligible contribution to the total seismic moment release. Here we apply both distributions to seismic hazard in the mainland UK and its immediate continental shelf, constrained by a mixture of instrumental, historical and neotectonic data. Tectonic moment release rates for the seismogenic part of the lithosphere are calculated from a flexural-plate model for glacio-isostatic recovery, constrained by vertical deformation rates from tide-gauge and geomorphological data. Earthquake focal mechanisms in the UK show near-vertical strike-slip faulting, with implied directions of maximum compressive stress approximately in the NNW-SSE direction, consistent with the tectonic model. Maximum magnitudes are found to be in the range 6.3-7.5 for the G-R law, or 7.0-8.2 m_L for the gamma distribution, which compare with a maximum observed in the time period of interest of 6.1 m_L . The upper bounds are conservative estimates, based on 100 per cent seismic release of the observed vertical neotectonic deformation. Glacio-isostatic recovery is predominantly an elastic rather than a seismic process, so the true value of m_max is likely to be nearer the lower end of the quoted range.

Seismicity of Cascade Volcanoes: Characterization and Comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thelen, W. A.

2016-12-01

Here we summarize and compare the seismicity around each of the Very High Threat Volcanoes of the Cascade Range of Washington, Oregon and California as defined by the National Volcanic Early Warning System (NVEWS) threat assessment (Ewert et al., 2005). Understanding the background seismic activity and processes controlling it is critical for assessing changes in seismicity and their implications for volcanic hazards. Comparing seismicity at different volcanic centers can help determine what critical factors or processes affect the observed seismic behavior. Of the ten Very High Threat Volcanoes in the Cascade Range, five volcanoes are consistently seismogenic when considering earthquakes within 10 km of the volcanic center or caldera edge (Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, Mount Hood, Newberry Caldera, Lassen Volcanic Center). Other Very High Threat volcanoes (South Sister, Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Crater Lake and Mount Shasta) have comparatively low rates of seismicity and not enough recorded earthquakes to calculate catalog statistics. Using a swarm definition of 3 or more earthquakes occurring in a day with magnitudes above the largest of the network's magnitude of completenesses (M 0.9), we find that Lassen Volcanic Center is the "swarmiest" in terms of percent of seismicity occurring in swarms, followed by Mount Hood, Mount St. Helens and Rainier. The predominance of swarms at Mount Hood may be overstated, as much of the seismicity is occurring on surrounding crustal faults (Jones and Malone, 2005). Newberry Caldera has a relatively short record of seismicity since the permanent network was installed in 2011, however there have been no swarms detected as defined here. Future work will include developing discriminates for volcanic versus tectonic seismicity to better filter the seismic catalog and more precise binning of depths at some volcanoes so that we may better consider different processes. Ewert J. W., Guffanti, M. and Murray, T. L. (2005). An

Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.

2003-01-01

Two M ??? 6 well-recorded strike-slip earthquakes struck just 4 km and 48 days apart in Kagoshima prefecture, Japan, in 1997, providing an opportunity to study earthquake interaction. Aftershocks are abundant where the Coulomb stress is calculated to have been increased by the first event, and they abruptly stop where the stress is dropped by the second event. This ability of the main shocks to toggle seismicity on and off argues that static stress changes play a major role in exciting aftershocks, whereas the dynamic Coulomb stresses, which should only promote seismicity, appear to play a secondary role. If true, the net stress changes from a sequence of earthquakes might be expected to govern the subsequent seismicity distribution. However, adding the stress changes from the two Kagoshima events does not fully capture the ensuing seismicity, such as its rate change, temporal decay, or migration away from the ends of the ruptures. We therefore implement a stress transfer model that incorporates rate/state friction, in which seismicity is treated as a sequence of independent nucleation events that are dependent on the fault slip, slip rate, and elapsed time since the last event. The model reproduces the temporal response of seismicity to successive stress changes, including toggling, decay, and aftershock migration. Nevertheless, the match of observed to predicted seismicity is quite imperfect, due perhaps to inadequate knowledge of several model parameters. However, to demonstrate the potential of this approach, we build a probabilistic forecast of larger earthquakes on the expected rate of small aftershocks, taking advantage of the large statistical sample the small shocks afford. Not surprisingly, such probabilities are highly time- and location-dependent: During the first decade after the main shocks, the seismicity rate and the chance of successive large shocks are about an order of magnitude higher than the background rate and are concentrated exclusively in

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after

Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

Background Lamb waves in the Earth's atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishida, K.; Kobayashi, N.; Fukao, Y.

2013-12-01

Lamb waves of the Earth's atmosphere in the millihertz band have been considered as transient phenomena excited only by large events [e.g. the major volcanic eruption of Krakatoa in 1833, the impact of Siberian meteorite in 1908, the testing of large nuclear tests and the huge earthquakes, Garrett1969]. In a case of the solid Earth, observation of background free oscillations in the millihertz band-now known as Earth's background free oscillations or seismic hum, has been firmly established. Above 5 mHz, their dominant excitation sources are oceanic infragravity waves. At 3.7 and 4.4 mHz an elasto-acoustic resonance between the solid Earth and the atmosphere was observed [Nishida et al., 2000]. These seismic observations show that the contribution of atmospheric disturbances to the seismic hum is dominant below 5 mHz. Such contribution implies background excitations of acoustic-gravity waves in this frequency range. For direct detection of the background acoustic-gravity waves, our group conducted observations using an array of barometers [Nishida et al. 2005]. However, the spatial scale of the array of about 10 km was too small to detect acoustic modes below 10 mHz. Since then, no direct observations of these waves have been reported. In 2011, 337 high-resolution microbarometers were installed on a continental scale at USArray Transportable Array. The large and dense array enables us to detect the background atmospheric waves. Here, we show the first evidence of background Lamb waves in the Earth's atmosphere from 0.2 to 10 mHz, based on the array analysis of microbarometer data from the USArray in 2012. The observations suggest that the excitation sources are atmospheric disturbances in the troposphere. Theoretically, their energy in the troposphere tunnels into the thermosphere at a resonant frequency via thermospheric gravity wave, where the observed amplitudes indeed take a local minimum. The energy leak through the frequency window could partly contribute to

The Pollino Seismic Sequence: Activated Graben Structures in a Seismic Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rößler, Dirk; Passarelli, Luigi; Govoni, Aladino; Bindi, Dino; Cesca, Simone; Hainzl, Sebatian; Maccaferri, Francesco; Rivalta, Eleonora; Woith, Heiko; Dahm, Torsten

2015-04-01

mapped for the area. Consistent with mapped faults, the seismicity interested both eastwards and westwards dipping normal faults that define the geometry of seismically active graben-like structures. At least one cluster shows an additional spatio-temporal migration with spreading hypocentres similar to other swarm areas with fluid-triggering mechanisms. The static Coulomb stress change transferred by the largest shock onto the swarm area and on the CF cannot explain the observed high seismicity rate. We study the evolution of the frequency-size distribution of the events and the seismicity rate changes. We find that the majority of the earthquakes cannot be justified as aftershocks (directly related to the tectonics or to earthquake-earthquake interaction) and are best explained by an additional forcing active over the entire sequence. Our findings are consistent with the action of fluids (e.g. pore-pressure diffusion) triggering seismicity on pre-loaded faults. Additional aseismic release of tectonic strain by transient, slow slip is also consistent with our analysis. Analysis of deformation time series may clarify this point in future studies.

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

From Geodetic Imaging of Seismic and Aseismic Fault Slip to Dynamic Modeling of the Seismic Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2015-05-01

Understanding the partitioning of seismic and aseismic fault slip is central to seismotectonics as it ultimately determines the seismic potential of faults. Thanks to advances in tectonic geodesy, it is now possible to develop kinematic models of the spatiotemporal evolution of slip over the seismic cycle and to determine the budget of seismic and aseismic slip. Studies of subduction zones and continental faults have shown that aseismic creep is common and sometimes prevalent within the seismogenic depth range. Interseismic coupling is generally observed to be spatially heterogeneous, defining locked patches of stress accumulation, to be released in future earthquakes or aseismic transients, surrounded by creeping areas. Clay-rich tectonites, high temperature, and elevated pore-fluid pressure seem to be key factors promoting aseismic creep. The generally logarithmic time evolution of afterslip is a distinctive feature of creeping faults that suggests a logarithmic dependency of fault friction on slip rate, as observed in laboratory friction experiments. Most faults can be considered to be paved with interlaced patches where the friction law is either rate-strengthening, inhibiting seismic rupture propagation, or rate-weakening, allowing for earthquake nucleation. The rate-weakening patches act as asperities on which stress builds up in the interseismic period; they might rupture collectively in a variety of ways. The pattern of interseismic coupling can help constrain the return period of the maximum- magnitude earthquake based on the requirement that seismic and aseismic slip sum to match long-term slip. Dynamic models of the seismic cycle based on this conceptual model can be tuned to reproduce geodetic and seismological observations. The promise and pitfalls of using such models to assess seismic hazard are discussed.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

Estimating Strain Accumulation in the New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, T. J.; Calais, E.

2014-12-01

The mechanical behaviour -- and hence earthquake potential -- of faults in continental interiors is a question of critical importance for the resultant seismic hazard, but no consensus has yet been reached on this controversial topic. The debate has focused on the central and eastern United States, in particular the New Madrid Seismic Zone, struck by three magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes in 1811--1812, and to a lesser extent the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone just to the north. A key aspect of this issue is the rate at which strain is currently accruing on those faults in the plate interior, a quantity that remains debated. Understanding if the present-day strain rates indicate sufficient motion to account for the historical and paleoseismological earthquakes by steady-state fault behaviour, or if strain accumulation is time-dependent in this area, is critical for investigating the causative process driving this seismicity in the plate interior, and how regional strain reflects the interplay between stresses arising from different geological processes. Here we address this issue with an analysis of up to 14 years of continuous GPS data from a network of 200 sites in the central United States centred on the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones. We find that high-quality sites in these regions show motions that are consistently within the 95% confidence limit of zero deformation relative to a rigid background. These results place an upper bound on regional strain accrual of 0.2 mm/yr and 0.5 mm/yr in the New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Zones, respectively. These results, together with increasing evidence for temporal clustering and spatial migration of earthquake sequences in continental interiors, indicate that either tectonic loading rates or fault properties vary with time in the NMSZ and possibly plate-wide.

An improved evaluation of the seismic/geodetic deformation-rate ratio for the Zagros Fold-and-Thrust collisional belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palano, Mimmo; Imprescia, Paola; Agnon, Amotz; Gresta, Stefano

2018-04-01

We present an improved picture of the ongoing crustal deformation field for the Zagros Fold-and-Thrust Belt continental collision zone by using an extensive combination of both novel and published GPS observations. The main results define the significant amount of oblique Arabia-Eurasia convergence currently being absorbed within the Zagros: right-lateral shear along the NW trending Main Recent fault in NW Zagros and accommodated between fold-and-thrust structures and NS right-lateral strike-slip faults on Southern Zagros. In addition, taking into account the 1909-2016 instrumental seismic catalogue, we provide a statistical evaluation of the seismic/geodetic deformation-rate ratio for the area. On Northern Zagros and on the Turkish-Iranian Plateau, a moderate to large fraction (˜49 and >60 per cent, respectively) of the crustal deformation occurs seismically. On the Sanandaj-Sirjan zone, the seismic/geodetic deformation-rate ratio suggests that a small to moderate fraction (<40 per cent) of crustal deformation occurs seismically; locally, the occurrence of large historic earthquakes (M ≥ 6) coupled with the high geodetic deformation, could indicate overdue M ≥ 6 earthquakes. On Southern Zagros, aseismic strain dominates crustal deformation (the ratio ranges in the 15-33 per cent interval). Such aseismic deformation is probably related to the presence of the weak evaporitic Hormuz Formation which allows the occurrence of large aseismic motion on both subhorizontal faults and surfaces of décollement. These results, framed into the seismotectonic framework of the investigated region, confirm that the fold-and-thrust-dominated deformation is driven by buoyancy forces; by contrast, the shear-dominated deformation is primary driven by plate stresses.

Using Seismic Interferometry to Investigate Seismic Swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzel, E.; Morency, C.; Templeton, D. C.

2017-12-01

Seismicity provides a direct means of measuring the physical characteristics of active tectonic features such as fault zones. Hundreds of small earthquakes often occur along a fault during a seismic swarm. This seismicity helps define the tectonically active region. When processed using novel geophysical techniques, we can isolate the energy sensitive to the fault, itself. Here we focus on two methods of seismic interferometry, ambient noise correlation (ANC) and the virtual seismometer method (VSM). ANC is based on the observation that the Earth's background noise includes coherent energy, which can be recovered by observing over long time periods and allowing the incoherent energy to cancel out. The cross correlation of ambient noise between a pair of stations results in a waveform that is identical to the seismogram that would result if an impulsive source located at one of the stations was recorded at the other, the Green function (GF). The calculation of the GF is often stable after a few weeks of continuous data correlation, any perturbations to the GF after that point are directly related to changes in the subsurface and can be used for 4D monitoring.VSM is a style of seismic interferometry that provides fast, precise, high frequency estimates of the Green's function (GF) between earthquakes. VSM illuminates the subsurface precisely where the pressures are changing and has the potential to image the evolution of seismicity over time, including changes in the style of faulting. With hundreds of earthquakes, we can calculate thousands of waveforms. At the same time, VSM collapses the computational domain, often by 2-3 orders of magnitude. This allows us to do high frequency 3D modeling in the fault region. Using data from a swarm of earthquakes near the Salton Sea, we demonstrate the power of these techniques, illustrating our ability to scale from the far field, where sources are well separated, to the near field where their locations fall within each other

Seismic and Geodetic Monitoring of the Nicoya, Costa Rica, Seismic Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protti, M.; Gonzalez, V.; Schwartz, S.; Dixon, T.; Kato, T.; Kaneda, Y.; Simila, G.; Sampson, D.

2007-05-01

The Nicoya segment of the Middle America Trench has been recognized as a mature seismic gap with potential to generate a large earthquake in the near future (it ruptured with large earthquakes in 1853, 1900 and 1950). Low level of background seismicity and fast crustal deformation of the forearc are indicatives of strong coupling along the plate interface. Given its high seismic potential, the available data and especially the fact that the Nicoya peninsula extends over large part of the rupture area, this gap was selected as one of the two sites for a MARGINS-SEIZE experiment. With the goal of documenting the evolution of loading and stress release along this seismic gap, an international effort involving several institutions from Costa Rica, the United States and Japan is being carried out for over a decade in the region. This effort involves the installation of temporary and permanent seismic and geodetic networks. The seismic network includes short period, broad band and strong motion instruments. The seismic monitoring has provided valuable information on the geometry and characteristics of the plate interface. The geodetic network includes temporary and permanent GPS stations as well as surface and borehole tiltmeters. The geodetic networks have helped quantify the extend and degree of coupling. A continuously recording, three- station GPS network on the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica, recorded what we believe is the first slow slip event observed along the plate interface of the Costa Rica subduction zone. We will present results from these monitoring networks. Collaborative international efforts are focused on expanding these seismic and geodetic networks to provide improved resolution of future creep events, to enhanced understanding of the mechanical behavior of the Nicoya subduction segment of the Middle American Trench and possibly capture the next large earthquake and its potential precursor deformation.

Passive (Micro-) Seismic Event Detection by Identifying Embedded "Event" Anomalies Within Statistically Describable Background Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baziw, Erick; Verbeek, Gerald

2012-12-01

Among engineers there is considerable interest in the real-time identification of "events" within time series data with a low signal to noise ratio. This is especially true for acoustic emission analysis, which is utilized to assess the integrity and safety of many structures and is also applied in the field of passive seismic monitoring (PSM). Here an array of seismic receivers are used to acquire acoustic signals to monitor locations where seismic activity is expected: underground excavations, deep open pits and quarries, reservoirs into which fluids are injected or from which fluids are produced, permeable subsurface formations, or sites of large underground explosions. The most important element of PSM is event detection: the monitoring of seismic acoustic emissions is a continuous, real-time process which typically runs 24 h a day, 7 days a week, and therefore a PSM system with poor event detection can easily acquire terabytes of useless data as it does not identify crucial acoustic events. This paper outlines a new algorithm developed for this application, the so-called SEED™ (Signal Enhancement and Event Detection) algorithm. The SEED™ algorithm uses real-time Bayesian recursive estimation digital filtering techniques for PSM signal enhancement and event detection.

Annual Rates on Seismogenic Italian Sources with Models of Long-Term Predictability for the Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment In Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Console, Rodolfo

2016-04-01

The present study is carried out in the framework of the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) INGV, under the agreement signed in 2015 with the Department of Civil Protection for developing a new model of seismic hazard of the country that can update the current reference (MPS04-S1; zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it and esse1.mi.ingv.it) released between 2004 and 2006. In this initiative, we participate with the Long-Term Stress Transfer (LTST) Model to provide the annual occurrence rate of a seismic event on the entire Italian territory, from a Mw4.5 minimum magnitude, considering bins of 0.1 magnitude units on geographical cells of 0.1° x 0.1°. Our methodology is based on the fusion of a statistical time-dependent renewal model (Brownian Passage Time, BPT, Matthews at al., 2002) with a physical model which considers the permanent effect in terms of stress that undergoes a seismogenic source in result of the earthquakes that occur on surrounding sources. For each considered catalog (historical, instrumental and individual seismogenic sources) we determined a distinct rate value for each cell of 0.1° x 0.1° for the next 50 yrs. If the cell falls within one of the sources in question, we adopted the respective value of rate, which is referred only to the magnitude of the event characteristic. This value of rate is divided by the number of grid cells that fall on the horizontal projection of the source. If instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the average value of the rate obtained from the historical and the instrumental catalog, using the method of Frankel (1995). The annual occurrence rate was computed for any of the three considered distributions (Poisson, BPT and BPT with inclusion of stress transfer).

Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Cramer, Chris H.

2017-07-01

This article presents a seismic hazard assessment for northern Iran, where a smoothed seismicity approach has been used in combination with an updated seismic catalog and a ground motion prediction equation recently found to yield good fit with data. We evaluate the hazard over a geographical area including the seismic zones of Azerbaijan, the Alborz Mountain Range, and Kopeh-Dagh, as well as parts of other neighboring seismic zones that fall within our region of interest. In the chosen approach, seismic events are not assigned to specific faults but assumed to be potential seismogenic sources distributed within regular grid cells. After performing the corresponding magnitude conversions, we decluster both historical and instrumental seismicity catalogs to obtain earthquake rates based on the number of events within each cell, and smooth the results to account for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of future earthquakes. Seismicity parameters are computed for each seismic zone separately, and for the entire region of interest as a single uniform seismotectonic region. In the analysis, we consider uncertainties in the ground motion prediction equation, the seismicity parameters, and combine the resulting models using a logic tree. The results are presented in terms of expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps and hazard curves at selected locations, considering exceedance probabilities of 2 and 10% in 50 years for rock site conditions. According to our results, the highest levels of hazard are observed west of the North Tabriz and east of the North Alborz faults, where expected PGA values are between about 0.5 and 1 g for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. We analyze our results in light of similar estimates available in the literature and offer our perspective on the differences observed. We find our results to be helpful in understanding seismic hazard for northern Iran, but recognize that additional efforts are necessary to

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2011-01-01

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Characteristics of Swarm Seismicity in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiorini, S.; Lekic, V.

2017-12-01

Seismic swarms are characterized by an anomalously large number of earthquakes compared to the background rate of seismicity that are tightly clustered in space (typically, one to tens of kilometers) and time (typically, days to weeks). However, why and how swarms occur is poorly understood, partly because of the difficulty of identifying the range of swarm behaviors within large seismic catalogs. Previous studies have found that swarms, compared to other earthquake sequences, appear to be more common in extensional (Vidale & Shearer, 2006) and volcanic settings (Hayashi & Morita, 2003). In addition, swarms more commonly exhibit migration patterns, consistent with either fluid diffusion (Chen & Shearer, 2011; Chen et al., 2012) or aseismic creep (Lohman & McGuire, 2007), and are preferentially found in areas of enhanced heat flow (Enescu, 2009; Zaliapin & Ben Zion, 2016). While the swarm seismicity of Southern California has been studied extensively, that of Northern California has not been systematically documented and characterized. We employed two complementary methods of swarm identification: the approach of Vidale and Shearer (2006; henceforth VS2006) based on a priori threshold distances and timings of quakes, and the spatio-temporal distance metric proposed by Zaliapin et al. (2008; henceforth Z2008) in order to build a complete catalog of swarm seismicity in Northern California spanning 1984-2016 (Waldhauser & Schaff, 2008). Once filtered for aftershocks, the catalog allows us to describe the main features of swarm seismicity in Northern California, including spatial distribution, association or lack thereof with known faults and volcanic systems, and seismically quiescent regions. We then apply a robust technique to characterize the morphology of swarms, leading to subsets of swarms that are oriented either vertically or horizontally in space. When mapped, vertical swarms show a significant association with volcanic regions, and horizontal swarms with

Spatial and temporal variability in rates of landsliding in seismically active mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, R.; Petley, D.; Rosser, N.; Densmore, A.; Gunasekera, R.; Brain, M.

2012-04-01

Where earthquake and precipitation driven disasters occur in steep, mountainous regions, landslides often account for a large proportion of the associated damage and losses. This research addresses spatial and temporal variability in rates of landslide occurrence in seismically active mountain ranges as a step towards developing better regional scale prediction of losses in such events. In the first part of this paper we attempt to explain reductively the variability in spatial rates of landslide occurrence, using data from five major earthquakes. This is achieved by fitting a regression-based conditional probability model to spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence, using as predictor variables proxies for spatial patterns of seismic ground motion and modelled hillslope stability. A combined model for all earthquakes performs well in hindcasting spatial probabilities of landslide occurrence as a function of readily-attainable spatial variables. We present validation of the model and demonstrate the extent to which it may be applied globally to derive landslide probabilities for future earthquakes. In part two we examine the temporal behaviour of rates of landslide occurrence. This is achieved through numerical modelling to simulate the behaviour of a hypothetical landscape. The model landscape is composed of hillslopes that continually weaken, fail and reset in response to temporally-discrete forcing events that represent earthquakes. Hillslopes with different geometries require different amounts of weakening to fail, such that they fail and reset at different temporal rates. Our results suggest that probabilities of landslide occurrence are not temporally constant, but rather vary with time, irrespective of changes in forcing event magnitudes or environmental conditions. Various parameters influencing the magnitude and temporal patterns of this variability are identified, highlighting areas where future research is needed. This model has important

Classifying elephant behaviour through seismic vibrations.

PubMed

Mortimer, Beth; Rees, William Lake; Koelemeijer, Paula; Nissen-Meyer, Tarje

2018-05-07

Seismic waves - vibrations within and along the Earth's surface - are ubiquitous sources of information. During propagation, physical factors can obscure information transfer via vibrations and influence propagation range [1]. Here, we explore how terrain type and background seismic noise influence the propagation of seismic vibrations generated by African elephants. In Kenya, we recorded the ground-based vibrations of different wild elephant behaviours, such as locomotion and infrasonic vocalisations [2], as well as natural and anthropogenic seismic noise. We employed techniques from seismology to transform the geophone recordings into source functions - the time-varying seismic signature generated at the source. We used computer modelling to constrain the propagation ranges of elephant seismic vibrations for different terrains and noise levels. Behaviours that generate a high force on a sandy terrain with low noise propagate the furthest, over the kilometre scale. Our modelling also predicts that specific elephant behaviours can be distinguished and monitored over a range of propagation distances and noise levels. We conclude that seismic cues have considerable potential for both behavioural classification and remote monitoring of wildlife. In particular, classifying the seismic signatures of specific behaviours of large mammals remotely in real time, such as elephant running, could inform on poaching threats. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Relationship Between Seismicity and Subsurface Well Activity in Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajoie, L. J.; Bennett, S. E. K.

2014-12-01

Understanding the relationship between seismicity and subsurface well activity is crucial to evaluating the seismic hazard of transient, non-tectonic seismicity. Several studies have demonstrated correlations between increased frequency of earthquake occurrence and the injection/production of fluids (e.g. oil, water) in nearby subsurface wells in intracontinental settings (e.g. Arkansas, Colorado, Ohio, Oklahoma, Texas). Here, we evaluate all earthquake magnitudes for the past 20-30 years across the diverse seismotectonic settings of Utah. We explore earthquakes within 5 km and subsequent to completion dates of oil and gas wells. We compare seismicity rates prior to well establishment with rates after well establishment in an attempt to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes in areas of naturally high background seismicity. In a few central Utah locations, we find that the frequency of shallow (0-10 km) earthquakes increased subsequent to completion of gas wells within 5 km, and at depths broadly similar to bottom hole depths. However, these regions typically correspond to mining regions of the Wasatch Plateau, complicating our ability to distinguish between earthquakes related to either well activity or mining. We calculate earthquake density and well density and compare their ratio (earthquakes per area/wells per area) with several published metrics of seismotectonic setting. Areas with a higher earthquake-well ratio are located in relatively high strain regions (determined from GPS) associated with the Intermountain Seismic Belt, but cannot be attributed to any specific Quaternary-active fault. Additionally, higher ratio areas do not appear to coincide with anomalously high heat flow values, where rocks are typically thermally weakened. Incorporation of timing and volume data for well injection/production would allow for more robust temporal statistical analysis and hazard analysis.

High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S. mid-continent seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weingarten, Matthew; Ge, Shemin; Godt, Jonathan W.; Bekins, Barbara A.; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

An unprecedented increase in earthquakes in the U.S. mid-continent began in 2009. Many of these earthquakes have been documented as induced by wastewater injection. We examine the relationship between wastewater injection and U.S. mid-continent seismicity using a newly assembled injection well database for the central and eastern United States. We find that the entire increase in earthquake rate is associated with fluid injection wells. High-rate injection wells (>300,000 barrels per month) are much more likely to be associated with earthquakes than lower-rate wells. At the scale of our study, a well’s cumulative injected volume, monthly wellhead pressure, depth, and proximity to crystalline basement do not strongly correlate with earthquake association. Managing injection rates may be a useful tool to minimize the likelihood of induced earthquakes.

Variations in the Parameters of Background Seismic Noise during the Preparation Stages of Strong Earthquakes in the Kamchatka Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasimova, V. A.; Kopylova, G. N.; Lyubushin, A. A.

2018-03-01

The results of the long (2011-2016) investigation of background seismic noise (BSN) in Kamchatka by the method suggested by Doct. Sci. (Phys.-Math.) A.A. Lyubushin with the use of the data from the network of broadband seismic stations of the Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences are presented. For characterizing the BSN field and its variability, continuous time series of the statistical parameters of the multifractal singularity spectra and wavelet expansion calculated from the records at each station are used. These parameters include the generalized Hurst exponent α*, singularity spectrum support width Δα, wavelet spectral exponent β, minimal normalized entropy of wavelet coefficients En, and spectral measure of their coherent behavior. The peculiarities in the spatiotemporal distribution of the BSN parameters as a probable response to the earthquakes with M w = 6.8-8.3 that occurred in Kamchatka in 2013 and 2016 are considered. It is established that these seismic events were preceded by regular variations in the BSN parameters, which lasted for a few months and consisted in the reduction of the median and mean α*, Δα, and β values estimated over all the stations and in the increase of the En values. Based on the increase in the spectral measure of the coherent behavior of the four-variate time series of the median and mean values of the considered statistics, the effect of the enhancement of the synchronism in the joint (collective) behavior of these parameters during a certain period prior to the mantle earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk (May 24, 2013, M w = 8.3) is diagnosed. The procedures for revealing the precursory effects in the variations of the BSN parameters are described and the examples of these effects are presented.

Detection capability of the IMS seismic network based on ambient seismic noise measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaebler, Peter J.; Ceranna, Lars

2016-04-01

All nuclear explosions - on the Earth's surface, underground, underwater or in the atmosphere - are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). As part of this treaty, a verification regime was put into place to detect, locate and characterize nuclear explosion testings at any time, by anyone and everywhere on the Earth. The International Monitoring System (IMS) plays a key role in the verification regime of the CTBT. Out of the different monitoring techniques used in the IMS, the seismic waveform approach is the most effective technology for monitoring nuclear underground testing and to identify and characterize potential nuclear events. This study introduces a method of seismic threshold monitoring to assess an upper magnitude limit of a potential seismic event in a certain given geographical region. The method is based on ambient seismic background noise measurements at the individual IMS seismic stations as well as on global distance correction terms for body wave magnitudes, which are calculated using the seismic reflectivity method. From our investigations we conclude that a global detection threshold of around mb 4.0 can be achieved using only stations from the primary seismic network, a clear latitudinal dependence for the detection threshold can be observed between northern and southern hemisphere. Including the seismic stations being part of the auxiliary seismic IMS network results in a slight improvement of global detection capability. However, including wave arrivals from distances greater than 120 degrees, mainly PKP-wave arrivals, leads to a significant improvement in average global detection capability. In special this leads to an improvement of the detection threshold on the southern hemisphere. We further investigate the dependence of the detection capability on spatial (latitude and longitude) and temporal (time) parameters, as well as on parameters such as source type and percentage of operational IMS stations.

Static Stress Transfers Causes Delayed Seismicity Shutdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.; Cochran, E. S.

2015-12-01

It has been long debated what role static stress changes play in the enhancement and suppression of seismicity in the near-field region of large earthquakes. While numerous observations have correlated earthquake triggering and elevated seismicity rates with regions of increased Coulomb failure stress (CFS), observations of seismic quiescence in stress shadow regions are more controversial. When observed, seismicity shutdowns are often delayed by days to months following a negative stress perturbation. Some studies propose that the delay in the seismic shutdown can be caused by rupture promoting failure on one fault type while suppressing activity on another; thus the observed seismicity reflects the weighted contribution of the two faulting populations. For example, it was noted that in the 75 years following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, strike-slip faulting earthquakes were inhibited, while thrust faulting events were promoted. However, definitive observations supporting this delayed shutdown mechanism are rare. In this study, we report seismicity rate increases and decreases that correlate with regions of Coulomb stress transfer, and show observations of a delayed shutdown in the Yuha Desert, California. We use a Coulomb stress change model coupled with a rate-and state- earthquake model to show that the delay in the shutdown is due to the combined changes in the rates of normal and strike-slip faulting events following the 2010 M5.72 Ocotillo aftershock of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake.

Effects of Regulation on Induced Seismicity in Southern Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Dougherty, S. L.

2016-12-01

The appearance of seismicity concurrent with the expansion of oil and gas activities in southern Kansas since September 2012 suggests that industrial operations are inducing earthquakes there. Much of the seismicity can be related to high-rate injection wells within 5 km of the earthquakes. There is significant complexity to the situation, though. Some of the seismicity, including the 2014 M4.8 Milan earthquake, the largest earthquake to occur in the area, lies at least 10km from high-rate injection wells. Additionally, the presence of high-rate wells does not guarantee that there will be nearby seismicity. Many of the highest-rate injection wells are located to the southwest of our study area, where there is minimal seismicity. We have also seen changes in earthquake rates shortly following the March 2015 enactment of new limits on the rate of wastewater disposal in five areas in southern Kansas. Overall, the earthquake rate has decreased significantly since these rules went into place. In more detail, however, earthquake rates within the five areas decreased, but the rate outside the five zones increased. It is likely that fluid-pressure diffusion is responsible for the migration of seismicity outside the areas of reduced injection because there is little injection in the areas unaffected by the new injection rules. This increase is also a reminder that seismicity can persist long after the reduction or cessation of injection. In addition to the effect of the new injection rules, it is possible that the reduction in injection may be partially caused by economic factors that have resulted in a decrease in the production of oil and gas. We have yet to disentangle the effects of the new injection rules and the low prices of oil and gas on the induced seismicity in southern Kansas.

Small aperture seismic arrays for studying planetary interiors and seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmerr, N. C.; Lekic, V.; Fouch, M. J.; Panning, M. P.; Siegler, M.; Weber, R. C.

2017-12-01

Seismic arrays are a powerful tool for understanding the interior structure and seismicity across objects in the Solar System. Given the operational constraints of ground-based lander investigations, a small aperture seismic array can provide many of the benefits of a larger-scale network, but does not necessitate a global deployment of instrumentation. Here we define a small aperture array as a deployment of multiple seismometers, with a separation between instruments of 1-1000 meters. For example, small aperture seismic arrays have been deployed on the Moon during the Apollo program, the Active Seismic Experiments of Apollo 14 and 16, and the Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment deployed by the Apollo 17 astronauts. Both were high frequency geophone arrays with spacing of 50 meters that provided information on the layering and velocity structure of the uppermost kilometer of the lunar crust. Ideally such arrays would consist of instruments that are 3-axis short period or broadband seismometers. The instruments must have a sampling rate and frequency range sensitivity capable of distinguishing between waves arriving at each station in the array. Both terrestrial analogs and the data retrieved from the Apollo arrays demonstrate the efficacy of this approach. Future opportunities exist for deployment of seismic arrays on Europa, asteroids, and other objects throughout the Solar System. Here we will present both observational data and 3-D synthetic modeling results that reveal the sensing requirements and the primary advantages of a small aperture seismic array over single station approach. For example, at the smallest apertures of < 1 m, we constrain that sampling rates must exceed 500 Hz and instrument sensitivity must extend to 100 Hz or greater. Such advantages include the improved ability to resolve the location of the sources near the array through detection of backazimuth and differential timing between stations, determination of the small-scale structure

Angola Seismicity MAP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neto, F. A. P.; Franca, G.

2014-12-01

The purpose of this job was to study and document the Angola natural seismicity, establishment of the first database seismic data to facilitate consultation and search for information on seismic activity in the country. The study was conducted based on query reports produced by National Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics (INAMET) 1968 to 2014 with emphasis to the work presented by Moreira (1968), that defined six seismogenic zones from macro seismic data, with highlighting is Zone of Sá da Bandeira (Lubango)-Chibemba-Oncócua-Iona. This is the most important of Angola seismic zone, covering the epicentral Quihita and Iona regions, geologically characterized by transcontinental structure tectono-magmatic activation of the Mesozoic with the installation of a wide variety of intrusive rocks of ultrabasic-alkaline composition, basic and alkaline, kimberlites and carbonatites, strongly marked by intense tectonism, presenting with several faults and fractures (locally called corredor de Lucapa). The earthquake of May 9, 1948 reached intensity VI on the Mercalli-Sieberg scale (MCS) in the locality of Quihita, and seismic active of Iona January 15, 1964, the main shock hit the grade VI-VII. Although not having significant seismicity rate can not be neglected, the other five zone are: Cassongue-Ganda-Massano de Amorim; Lola-Quilengues-Caluquembe; Gago Coutinho-zone; Cuima-Cachingues-Cambândua; The Upper Zambezi zone. We also analyzed technical reports on the seismicity of the middle Kwanza produced by Hidroproekt (GAMEK) region as well as international seismic bulletins of the International Seismological Centre (ISC), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and these data served for instrumental location of the epicenters. All compiled information made possible the creation of the First datbase of seismic data for Angola, preparing the map of seismicity with the reconfirmation of the main seismic zones defined by Moreira (1968) and the identification of a new seismic

Seismicity rate changes along the central California coast due to stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aron, A.; Hardebeck, J.L.

2009-01-01

We investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled Coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in central California. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that the San Simeon mainshock loaded parts of the Rinconada, Hosgri, and San Andreas strike-slip faults, along with the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain. All of these loaded faults, except for the San Andreas, experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the San Simeon mainshock. The Parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the San Andreas fault. The Parkfield earthquake unloaded the Hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain, which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the Parkfield event, although the decreases may be related to the decay of San Simeon-triggered seismicity. Coulomb stress unloading from the Parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of San Simeon after-shocks, which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the Omori decay parameters based on the pre-Parkfield aftershocks. Dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks, providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence. However, a burst of seismicity following the Parkfield earthquake at Ragged Point, where the static stress was decreased, provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering. It therefore appears that both Coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate.

Noise analysis of the seismic system employed in the northern and southern California seismic nets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, J.P.

1984-01-01

The seismic networks have been designed and operated to support recording on Develocorders (less than 40db dynamic range) and analog magnetic tape (about 50 db dynamic range). The principal analysis of the records has been based on Develocorder films; and background earth noise levels have been adjusted to be about 1 to 2 mm p-p on the film readers. Since the traces are separated by only 10 to 12 mm on the reader screen, they become hopelessly tangled when signal amplitudes on several adjacent traces exceed 10 to 20 mm p-p. Thus, the background noise level is hardly more than 20 db below the level of largest readable signals. The situation is somewhat better on tape playbacks, but the high level of background noise set to accomodate processing from film records effectively limits the range of maximum-signal to background-earth-noise on high gain channels to a little more than 30 db. Introduction of the PDP 11/44 seismic data acquisition system has increased the potential dynamic range of recorded network signals to more than 60 db. To make use of this increased dynamic range we must evaluate the characteristics and performance of the seismic system. In particular, we must determine whether the electronic noise in the system is or can be made sufficiently low so that background earth noise levels can be lowered significantly to take advantage of the increased dynamic range of the digital recording system. To come to grips with the complex problem of system noise, we have carried out a number of measurements and experiments to evaluate critical components of the system as well as to determine the noise characteristics of the system as a whole.

Background Noise Characteristics in the Western Part of Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecu, B.; Neagoe, C.; Tataru, D.; Stuart, G.

2012-04-01

The seismological database of the western part of Romania increased significantly during the last years, when 33 broadband seismic stations provided by SEIS-UK (10 CMG 40 T's - 30 s, 9 CMG 3T's - 120 s, 14 CMG 6T's - 30 s) were deployed in the western part of the country in July 2009 to operate autonomously for two years. These stations were installed within a joint project (South Carpathian Project - SCP) between University of Leeds, UK and National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP), Romania that aimed at determining the lithospheric structure and geodynamical evolution of the South Carpathian Orogen. The characteristics of the background seismic noise recorded at the SCP broadband seismic network have been studied in order to identify the variations in background seismic noise as a function of time of day, season, and particular conditions at the stations. Power spectral densities (PSDs) and their corresponding probability density functions (PDFs) are used to characterize the background seismic noise. At high frequencies (> 1 Hz), seismic noise seems to have cultural origin, since notable variations between daytime and nighttime noise levels are observed at most of the stations. The seasonal variations are seen in the microseisms band. The noise levels increase during the winter and autumn months and decrease in summer and spring seasons, while the double-frequency peak shifts from lower periods in summer to longer periods in winter. The analysis of the probability density functions for stations located in different geologic conditions points out that the noise level is higher for stations sited on softer formations than those sited on hard rocks. Finally, the polarization analysis indicates that the main sources of secondary microseisms are found in the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.

Precursory seismic quiescence: A preliminary assessment of the hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, P.A.; Matthews, M.V.

1988-01-01

Numerous cases of precursory seismic quiescence have been reported in recent years. Some investigators have interpreted these observations as evidence that seismic quiescence is a somewhat reliable precursor to moderate or large earthquakes. However, because failures of the pattern to predict earthquakes may not, in general, be reported, and because numerous earthquakes are not preceded by quiescence, the validity and reliability of the quiescence precursor have not been established. We have analyzed the seismicity rate prior to, and in the source region of, 37 shallow earthquakes (M 5.3-7.0) in central California and Japan for patterns of rate fluctuation, especially precursory quiescence. Nonuniformity in rate for these pre-mainshock sequences is relatively high, and numerous intervals with significant (p<0.10) extrema in rate are observed in some of the sequences. In other sequences, however, the rate remains within normal limits up to the time of the mainshock. Overall, in terms of an observational basis for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, no evidence is found in the cases studied for a systematic, widespread or reliable pattern of quiescence prior to the mainshocks. In earthquake sequences comprising full seismic cycles for 5 sets of (M 3.7-5.1) repeat earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Bear Valley, California, the seismicity rates are found to be uniform. A composite of the estimated rate fluctuations for the sequences, normalized to the length of the seismic cycle, reveals a weak pattern of a low rate in the first third of the cycle, and a high rate in the last few months. While these observations are qualitative, they may represent weak expressions of physical processes occurring in the source region over the seismic cycle. Re-examination of seismicity rate fluctuations in volumes along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault specified by Wyss and Burford (1985) qualitatively confirms the existence of low-rate intervals in volumes 361

Geothermal induced seismicity: What links source mechanics and event magnitudes to faulting regime and injection rates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Garzon, Patricia; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Bohnhoff, Marco; Dresen, Georg

2017-04-01

Improving estimates of seismic hazard associated to reservoir stimulation requires advanced understanding of the physical processes governing induced seismicity, which can be better achieved by carefully processing large datasets. To this end, we investigate source-type processes (shear/tensile/compaction) and rupture geometries with respect to the local stress field using seismicity from The Geysers (TG) and Salton Sea geothermal reservoirs, California. Analysis of 869 well-constrained full moment tensors (MW 0.8-3.5) at TG reveals significant non-double-couple (NDC) components (>25%) for 65% of the events and remarkably diversity in the faulting mechanisms. Volumetric deformation is clearly governed by injection rates with larger NDC components observed near injection wells and during high injection periods. The overall volumetric deformation from the moment tensors increases with time, possibly reflecting a reservoir pore pressure increase after several years of fluid injection with no significant production nearby. The obtained source mechanisms and fault orientations are magnitude-dependent and vary significantly between faulting regimes. Normal faulting events (MW < 2) reveal substantial NDC components indicating dilatancy, and they occur on varying fault orientations. In contrast, strike-slip events dominantly reveal a double-couple source, larger magnitudes (MW > 2) and mostly occur on optimally oriented faults with respect to the local stress field. NDC components indicating closure of cracks and pore spaces in the source region are found for reverse faulting events with MW > 2.5. Our findings from TG are generally consistent with preliminary source-type results from a reduced subset of well-recorded seismicity at the Salton Sea geothermal reservoir. Combined results imply that source processes and magnitudes of geothermal-induced seismicity are strongly affected by and systematically related to the hydraulic operations and the local stress state.

Comparing Background and Recent Erosion Rates in Degraded Areas of Southeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, N.; Bierman, P. R.; Sosa-Gonzalez, V.; Rood, D. H.; Fontes, R. L.; Santos, A. C.; Godoy, J. M.; Bhering, S.

2014-12-01

Soil erosion is a major problem in northwestern Rio de Janeiro State where, during the last three centuries, major land-use changes took place, associated with the replacement of the original rainforest by agriculture and grazing. The combination of steep hillslopes, erodible soils, sparse vegetation, natural and human-induced fires, as well as downslope ploughing, led to an increase in surface runoff and surface erosion on soil-mantled hillslopes; together, these actions and responses caused a decline in soil productivity. In order to estimate changes in erosion rates over time, we compared erosion rates measured at different spatial and temporal scales, both background (natural) and short-term (human-induced during last few decades). Background long-term erosion rates were measured using in-situ produced cosmogenic 10Be in the sand fraction quartz of active river channel sediment in four basins in the northwestern portion of Rio de Janeiro State. In these basins, average annual precipitation varies from 1,200 to 1,300 mm, while drainage areas vary from 15 to 7,200 km2. Short-term erosion rates were measured in one of these basins from fallout 210Pb in soil samples collected along a hillslope transect located in an abandoned agriculture field. In this transect, 190 undisturbed soil samples (three replicates) were collected from the surface to 0.50 m depth (5 cm vertical intervals) in six soil pits. 10Be average background, basin-wide, erosion rates in the area are ~ 13 m/My; over the last decades, time-integrated (210Pb) average hillslope erosion rates are around 1450 m/Myr, with maximum values at the steepest portion of convex hillslopes of about 2000 m/Myr. These results suggest that recent hillslope erosion rates are about 2 orders of magnitude above background rates of sediment generation integrated over many millennia. This unsustainable rate of soil loss has severely decreased soil productivity eventually leading to the abandonment of farming activities in

Modeling radon daughter deposition rates for low background detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerdale, S.; Guiseppe, V. E.; Rielage, K.; Elliot, S. R.; Hime, A.

2009-10-01

Detectors such as those looking for dark matter and those working to detect neutrinoless double-beta decay require record low levels of background radiation. One major source of background radiation is from radon daughters that decay from airborne radon. In particular, ^222Rn decay products may be deposited on any detector materials that are exposed to environmental radon. Long-lasting daughters, especially ^210Pb, can pose a long-term background radiation source that can interfere with the detectors' measurements by emitting alpha particles into sensitive parts of the detectors. A better understanding of this radon daughter deposition will allow for preventative actions to be taken to minimize the amount of noise from this source. A test stand has therefore been set up to study the impact of various environmental factors on the rate of radon daughter deposition so that a model can be constructed. Results from the test stand and a model of radon daughter deposition will be presented.

Seismic data collection from water gun and industrial background sources in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal area, Illinois, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrow, William S.; Carpenter, Phillip J.; Adams, Ryan F.

2015-01-01

The water gun is a tool adapted from deep marine geophysical surveys that is being evaluated for use as an acoustic fish deterrent to control the movement of invasive marine species. The water gun creates a seismic signal by using a compressed air discharge to move a piston rapidly within the water, resulting in an implosion. This energy pulse may be able to modify fish behavior or destroy marine life, such as the Asian carp, at some distance. The effects of this energy pulse on structures in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC), such as canal walls, shore lines, and lock structures, are not known. The potential effects of the use of a water gun on structures was identified as a concern in the CSSC and was assessed relative to existing background sources during this study. During September 2011, two water guns with piston sizes of 80 and 343 cubic inches, respectively, were tested in the CSSC at varying pressures and distances from a canal wall consisting of dolomite and dolomite setblock. Seismic data were collected during these water gun firings using geophones on land, in boreholes, and at the canal wall interface. Data were collected at varying depths in the canal water using hydrophones. Seismic data were also collected during the occurrences of barge traffic, railroad traffic located near the electric fish barrier in Lemont, and coal-loading operations at a coal power plant near the electric fish barrier. In general, energy produced by barge and railroad sources was less than energy created by the water gun. Energy levels produced by coal-loading operations at least 200 feet from geophones were approximately four times lower than energy levels measured during water gun operations.

Linking Incoming Plate Faulting and Intermediate Depth Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwong, K. B.; van Zelst, I.; Tong, X.; Eimer, M. O.; Naif, S.; Hu, Y.; Zhan, Z.; Boneh, Y.; Schottenfels, E.; Miller, M. S.; Moresi, L. N.; Warren, J. M.; Wiens, D. A.

2017-12-01

Intermediate depth earthquakes, occurring between 70-350 km depth, are often attributed to dehydration reactions within the subducting plate. It is proposed that incoming plate normal faulting associated with plate bending at the trench may control the amount of hydration in the plate by producing large damage zones that create pathways for the infiltration of seawater deep into the subducting mantle. However, a relationship between incoming plate seismicity, faulting, and intermediate depth seismicity has not been established. We compiled a global dataset consisting of incoming plate earthquake moment tensor (CMT) solutions, focal depths, bend fault spacing and offset measurements, along with plate age and convergence rates. In addition, a global intermediate depth seismicity dataset was compiled with parameters such as the maximum seismic moment and seismicity rate, as well as thicknesses of double seismic zones. The maximum fault offset in the bending region has a strong correlation with the intermediate depth seismicity rate, but a more modest correlation with other parameters such as convergence velocity and plate age. We estimated the expected rate of seismic moment release for the incoming plate faults using mapped fault scarps from bathymetry. We compare this with the cumulative moment from normal faulting earthquakes in the incoming plate from the global CMT catalog to determine whether outer rise fault movement has an aseismic component. Preliminary results from Tonga and the Middle America Trench suggest there may be an aseismic component to incoming plate bending faulting. The cumulative seismic moment calculated for the outer rise faults will also be compared to the cumulative moment from intermediate depth earthquakes to assess whether these parameters are related. To support the observational part of this study, we developed a geodynamic numerical modeling study to systematically explore the influence of parameters such as plate age and convergence

The 2014 Weld County, Colorado, Earthquakes: A developing case of induced seismicity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeck, W. L.; Sheehan, A. F.; Weingarten, M.; Nakai, J.

2014-12-01

On June 1st 2014 (UTC), a M 3.2 earthquake occurred in Weld County, Colorado. Weld County is largely aseismic and this event was unexpected. There were no events in the ANSS Comprehensive Catalogue within 50 km of the earthquake. Weld County is the center of active oil and gas development, including many high-volume Class II wastewater injection wells. Injection wells have been linked to an increasing number of earthquakes throughout the US in recent years. Due to the lack of background seismicity in the area and the proximity of the earthquake to several injection wells, the University of Colorado requested seismometers from IRIS PASSCAL's Rapid Array Mobilization Program in order to study further seismicity. Seismic stations were deployed within 3 days of the June 1st event. We report on our ongoing findings from this deployment. To date, we have located 89 earthquakes and have detected over 600. These numbers continue to grow as we collect and analyze further data. Earthquake magnitudes remain small with only three earthquakes above M 2.0 recorded by our network, the largest of which was an M 2.6 earthquake on June 23rd 2014. Earthquakes locate in a small cluster (~2 km radius) centered near a high-volume injection well. This well operated at injection rates greater than 300,000 barrels/month since August 2013 and injects at a depth near the sediment-basement contact. Prior to our local deployment, the closest seismic station to the June 1st event was > 100 km away and therefore the evolution of seismicity prior the June 1st earthquake is poorly constrained. In order to better understand the temporal evolution of seismicity, we use match-filtering on data from these distant stations and find the earliest matching event on November 11th 2013. Due to the strong spatial and temporal correlation between these events and injection operations, we find it likely that these earthquakes are induced. In response to the ongoing seismicity near the well, the Colorado Oil

Detailed seismic evaluation of bridges along I-24 in Western Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-09-01

This report presents a seismic rating system and a detailed evaluation procedure for selected highway bridges on/over I-24 in Western Kentucky near the New Madrid Seismic Zone (MNSZ). The rating system, based upon structural vulnerability, seismic an...

Revisiting the North Chile seismic gap segmentation using GPS-derived interseismic coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Métois, Marianne; Socquet, Anne; Vigny, Christophe; Carrizo, Daniel; Sophie, Peyrat

2013-04-01

The North Chile area did not rupture since the 1877 Mw 8.6 earthquake that produced a huge tsunami. Considering that upper plate deformation measured there by modern geodetic tools is due to some degree of locking on the subduction interface and the long elapsed time since 1877, many consider this area is a mature seismic gap where seismic hazard is high. We present a new GPS velocity field that describes in some detail the interseismic deformation between 18°S and 24°S. We invert for coupling distribution on the subduction interface using elastic modeling. Our measurements require that, at these latitudes, 10 to 12 mm/yr (i.e ~15% of the whole convergence rate) are taken up by the clockwise rigid rotation of an Andean block bounded to the East by the subandean fold-and-thrust belt. This reduces the accumulation rate on the subduction interface to ~56 mm/yr in this area. We describe coupling variations on the subduction interface both along-strike and along-dip. We find that this gap is segmented in at least two highly locked segments and two narrow low coupled intersegment zones (Iquique and Mejillones areas). This coupling segmentation is consistent with our knowledge of the historical ruptures and of the instrumental seismicity of the region. Intersegments correlate with high background seismic rate and local tectonic complexities on the upper or downgoing plates. The rupture of either the Paranal or the Loa segment alone could easily produce a Mw 8.0-8.3 rupture, and we propose that the Loa segment (from 22.5°S to 20.8°S) may be the one that ruptured in 1877.

Seismic Hazard Analysis as a Controlling Technique of Induced Seismicity in Geothermal Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Maercklin, N.; Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.

2011-12-01

The effect of induced seismicity of geothermal systems during stimulation and fluid circulation can cover a wide range of values from light and unfelt to severe and damaging. If the design of a modern geothermal system requires the largest efficiency to be obtained from the social point of view it is required that the system could be managed in order to reduce possible impact in advance. In this framework, automatic control of the seismic response of the stimulated reservoir is nowadays mandatory, particularly in proximity of densely populated areas. Recently, techniques have been proposed for this purpose mainly based on the concept of the traffic light. This system provides a tool to decide the level of stimulation rate based on the real-time analysis of the induced seismicity and the ongoing ground motion values. However, in some cases the induced effect can be delayed with respect to the time when the reservoir is stimulated. Thus, a controlling system technique able to estimate the ground motion levels for different time scales can help to better control the geothermal system. Here we present an adaptation of the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to the case where the seismicity rate as well as the propagation medium properties are not constant with time. We use a non-homogeneous seismicity model for modeling purposes, in which the seismicity rate and b-value of the recurrence relationship change with time. Additionally, as a further controlling procedure, we propose a moving time window analysis of the recorded peak ground-motion values aimed at monitoring the changes in the propagation medium. In fact, for the same set of magnitude values recorded at the same stations, we expect that on average peak ground motion values attenuate in same way. As a consequence, the residual differences can be reasonably ascribed to changes in medium properties. These changes can be modeled and directly introduced in the hazard integral. We applied the proposed

Seismic signal and noise on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panning, Mark; Stähler, Simon; Bills, Bruce; Castillo Castellanos, Jorge; Huang, Hsin-Hua; Husker, Allen; Kedar, Sharon; Lorenz, Ralph; Pike, William T.; Schmerr, Nicholas; Tsai, Victor; Vance, Steven

2017-10-01

Seismology is one of our best tools for detailing interior structure of planetary bodies, and a seismometer is included in the baseline and threshold mission design for the upcoming Europa Lander mission. Guiding mission design and planning for adequate science return, though, requires modeling of both the anticipated signal and noise. Assuming ice seismicity on Europa behaves according to statistical properties observed in Earth catalogs and scaling cumulative seismic moment release to the moon, we can simulate long seismic records and estimate background noise and peak signal amplitudes (Panning et al., 2017). This suggests a sensitive instrument comparable to many broadband terrestrial instruments or the SP instrument from the InSight mission to Mars will be able to record signals, while high frequency geophones are likely inadequate. We extend this analysis to also begin incorporation of spatial and temporal variation due to the tidal cycle, which can help inform landing site selection. We also begin exploration of how chaotic terrane at the bottom of the ice shell and inter-ice heterogeneities (i.e. internal melt structures) may affect anticipated seismic observations using 2D numerical seismic simulations.M. P. Panning, S. C. Stähler, H.-H. Huang, S. D. Vance, S. Kedar, V. C. Tsai, W. T. Pike, R. D. Lorenz, “Expected seismicity and the seismic noise environment of Europa,” J. Geophys. Res., in revision, 2017.

Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keranen, Katie M.; Weingarten, Matthew

2018-05-01

The ability of fluid-generated subsurface stress changes to trigger earthquakes has long been recognized. However, the dramatic rise in the rate of human-induced earthquakes in the past decade has created abundant opportunities to study induced earthquakes and triggering processes. This review briefly summarizes early studies but focuses on results from induced earthquakes during the past 10 years related to fluid injection in petroleum fields. Study of these earthquakes has resulted in insights into physical processes and has identified knowledge gaps and future research directions. Induced earthquakes are challenging to identify using seismological methods, and faults and reefs strongly modulate spatial and temporal patterns of induced seismicity. However, the similarity of induced and natural seismicity provides an effective tool for studying earthquake processes. With continuing development of energy resources, increased interest in carbon sequestration, and construction of large dams, induced seismicity will continue to pose a hazard in coming years.

Gradual decay of elevated landslide rates after a large earthquake in the Finisterre Mountains, Papua New Guinea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hovius, N.; Marc, O.

2013-12-01

Large earthquakes can cause widespread mass wasting and landslide rates can stay high after a seismic event. The rate of decay of seismically enhanced mass wasting determines the total erosional effect of an earthquake. It is also an important term in the post-seismic redevelopment of epicentral areas. Using a time series of Landsat images spanning 1990-2010, we have determined the evolution of landslide rates in the western Finisterre Mountains, Papua New Guinea. There, two earthquakes with Mw 6.7and 6.9 occurred at depth of about 20 km on the range-bounding Ramu-Markam fault in 1993. These earthquakes triggered landslides with a total volume of about 0.15 km3. Landslide rates were up to four orders of magnitude higher after the earthquakes than in preceding years, decaying to background values over a period of 2-3 years. Due to this short decay time, seismically induced landslides added only 5% to the volume of co-seismic landslides. This contrasts with another well-documented example, the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, where post-seismic landsliding may have increased the total eroded volume by a factor 3-5. In the Finisterre case, landslide rates may have been slightly less than normal for up to a decade after the decay period, but this effect is partially obscured by the impact of a smaller earthquake in 1997. Regardless, the rate of decay of landslide incidence was unrelated to both the seismic moment release in aftershocks and local precipitation. A control on this decay rate has not yet been identified.

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified

Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua

2018-01-01

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we consider both a double‐truncated 2σ Gaussian and a boxcar distribution of slip rates and use a Monte Carlo simulation to sample the entire range of the distribution for California fault‐slip rates. We compute the seismic hazard following the methodology and logic‐tree branch weights applied to the 2014 national seismic hazard model (NSHM) for the western U.S. region (Petersen et al., 2014, 2015). By applying a new approach developed in this study to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using precomputed rates of exceedance from each fault as a Green’s function, we reduce the computer time by about 10^5‐fold and apply it to the mean PSHA estimates with 1000 Monte Carlo samples of fault‐slip rates to compare with results calculated using only the mean or preferred slip rates. The difference in the mean probabilistic peak ground motion corresponding to a 2% in 50‐yr probability of exceedance is less than 1% on average over all of California for both the Gaussian and boxcar probability distributions for slip‐rate uncertainty but reaches about 18% in areas near faults compared with that calculated using the mean or preferred slip rates. The average uncertainties in 1σ peak ground‐motion level are 5.5% and 7.3% of the mean with the relative maximum uncertainties of 53% and 63% for the Gaussian and boxcar probability density function (PDF), respectively.

Updated Colombian Seismic Hazard Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eraso, J.; Arcila, M.; Romero, J.; Dimate, C.; Bermúdez, M. L.; Alvarado, C.

2013-05-01

The Colombian seismic hazard map used by the National Building Code (NSR-98) in effect until 2009 was developed in 1996. Since then, the National Seismological Network of Colombia has improved in both coverage and technology providing fifteen years of additional seismic records. These improvements have allowed a better understanding of the regional geology and tectonics which in addition to the seismic activity in Colombia with destructive effects has motivated the interest and the need to develop a new seismic hazard assessment in this country. Taking advantage of new instrumental information sources such as new broad band stations of the National Seismological Network, new historical seismicity data, standardized global databases availability, and in general, of advances in models and techniques, a new Colombian seismic hazard map was developed. A PSHA model was applied. The use of the PSHA model is because it incorporates the effects of all seismic sources that may affect a particular site solving the uncertainties caused by the parameters and assumptions defined in this kind of studies. First, the seismic sources geometry and a complete and homogeneous seismic catalog were defined; the parameters of seismic rate of each one of the seismic sources occurrence were calculated establishing a national seismotectonic model. Several of attenuation-distance relationships were selected depending on the type of seismicity considered. The seismic hazard was estimated using the CRISIS2007 software created by the Engineering Institute of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México -UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico). A uniformly spaced grid each 0.1° was used to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectral values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3.0 seconds with return periods of 75, 225, 475, 975 and 2475 years. For each site, a uniform hazard spectrum and exceedance rate curves were calculated. With the results, it is

Major effect of inherited rheology weakening in the crust and mantle on continental intraplate strain and seismicity rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gueydan, Frédéric; Mazzotti, Stephane

2017-04-01

Stable Continental Regions (SCR, i.e., intraplate) are commonly viewed as non-deforming and very high resistance lithosphere domains, except in localized regions of higher strain and seismicity rates that often related to fossilized tectonic zones acting as weaker domains (e.g., Rhine Graben, New Madrid). Two main categories of models have been proposed to explain strain concentration in SCR: Local stress concentration (fault intersection, erosion pulse, …) and local lithosphere weakness (high geotherm, mantle anisotropy, …). In order to test the respective role of these various parameters of the stress - rheology - strain relationship, we propose a simple 1D model to quantify first-order continental strain rate variations using laboratory and field-based rheology laws for the crust and mantle. In particular, we include new strain-weakening rheologies in order to simulate tectonic heritage. Within the framework of near-failure equilibrium between tectonic forces and strain rates, we show that inherited rheology weakening plays a fundamental role in allowing for and explaining strain and seismicity concentration in intraplate weak zones. A comparison with empirical strain rate estimations in SCR and intraplate weak zones shows that inherited weakening rheologies can increase local strain rates by as much as three orders of magnitude, about one to two orders higher than that permitted by other processes such as stress concentration, thermal anomaly, etc.

The Augustine magmatic system as revealed by seismic tomography and relocated earthquake hypocenters from 1994 through 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syracuse, E.M.; Thurber, C.H.; Power, J.A.

2011-01-01

We incorporate 14 years of earthquake data from the Alaska Volcano Observatory with data from a 1975 controlled-source seismic experiment to obtain the three-dimensional P and S wave velocity structure and the first high-precision earthquake locations at Augustine Volcano to be calculated in a fully three-dimensional velocity model. Velocity tomography shows two main features beneath Augustine: a narrow, high-velocity column beneath the summit, extending from ???2 km depth to the surface, and elevated velocities on the south flank. Our relocation results allow a thorough analysis of the spatio-temoral patterns of seismicity and the relationship to the magmatic and eruptive activity. Background seismicity is centered beneath the summit at an average depth of 0.6 km above sea level. In the weeks leading to the January 2006 eruption of Augustine, seismicity focused on a NW-SE line along the trend of an inflating dike. A series of drumbeat earthquakes occurred in the early weeks of the eruption, indicating further magma transport through the same dike system. During the six months following the onset of the eruption, the otherwise quiescent region 1 to 5 km below sea level centered beneath the summit became seismically active with two groups of earthquakes, differentiated by frequency content. The deep longer-period earthquakes occurred during the eruption and are interpreted as resulting from the movement of magma toward the summit, and the post-eruptive shorter-period earthquakes may be due to the relaxation of an emptied magma tube. The seismicity subsequently returned to its normal background rates and patterns. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

The exponential rise of induced seismicity with increasing stress levels in the Groningen gas field and its implications for controlling seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourne, S. J.; Oates, S. J.; van Elk, J.

2018-06-01

Induced seismicity typically arises from the progressive activation of recently inactive geological faults by anthropogenic activity. Faults are mechanically and geometrically heterogeneous, so their extremes of stress and strength govern the initial evolution of induced seismicity. We derive a statistical model of Coulomb stress failures and associated aftershocks within the tail of the distribution of fault stress and strength variations to show initial induced seismicity rates will increase as an exponential function of induced stress. Our model provides operational forecasts consistent with the observed space-time-magnitude distribution of earthquakes induced by gas production from the Groningen field in the Netherlands. These probabilistic forecasts also match the observed changes in seismicity following a significant and sustained decrease in gas production rates designed to reduce seismic hazard and risk. This forecast capability allows reliable assessment of alternative control options to better inform future induced seismic risk management decisions.

Micro-seismicity and seismic moment release within the Coso Geothermal Field, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaven, Joern; Hickman, Stephen H.; Davatzes, Nicholas C.

2014-01-01

We relocate 16 years of seismicity in the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) using differential travel times and simultaneously invert for seismic velocities to improve our knowledge of the subsurface geologic and hydrologic structure. We expand on our previous results by doubling the number of relocated events from April 1996 through May 2012 using a new field-wide 3-D velocity model. Relocated micro-seismicity sharpens in many portions of the active geothermal reservoir, likely defining large-scale fault zones and fluid pressure compartment boundaries. However, a significant fraction of seismicity remains diffuse and does not cluster into sharply defined structures, suggesting that permeability is maintained within the reservoir through distributed brittle failure. The seismic velocity structure reveals heterogeneous distributions of compressional (Vp) and shear (Vs) wave speed, with Vs generally higher in the Main Field and East Flank and Vp remaining relatively uniform across the CGF, but with significant local variations. The Vp/Vs ratio appears to outline the two main producing compartments of the reservoir at depths below mean ground level of approximately 1 to 2.5 km, with a ridge of relatively high Vp/Vs separating the Main Field from the East Flank. Detailed analyses of spatial and temporal variations in earthquake relocations and cumulative seismic moment release in the East Flank reveal three regions with persistently high rates of seismic activity. Two of these regions exhibit sharp, stationary boundaries at the margins of the East Flank that likely represent barriers to fluid flow and advective heat transport. However, seismicity and moment release in a third region at the northern end of the East Flank spread over time to form an elongated NE to SW structure, roughly parallel both to an elongated cluster of seismicity at the southern end of the East Flank and to regional fault traces mapped at the surface. Our results indicate that high

Revisiting the North Chile seismic gap segmentation using GPS-derived interseismic coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Métois, M.; Socquet, A.; Vigny, C.; Carrizo, D.; Peyrat, S.; Delorme, A.; Maureira, E.; Valderas-Bermejo, M.-C.; Ortega, I.

2013-09-01

No major earthquake occurred in North Chile since the 1877 Mw 8.6 subduction earthquake that produced a huge tsunami. However, geodetic measurements conducted over the last decade in this area show that the upper plate is actually deforming, which reveals some degree of locking on the subduction interface. This accumulation of elastic deformation is likely to be released in a future earthquake. Because of the long elapsed time since 1877 and the rapid accumulation of deformation (thought to be 6-7 cm yr-1), many consider this area is a mature seismic gap where a major earthquake is due and seismic hazard is high. We present a new Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field, acquired between 2008 and 2012, that describes in some detail the interseismic deformation between 18°S and 24°S. We invert for coupling distribution on the Nazca-South America subduction interface using elastic modelling. Our measurements require that, at these latitudes, 10 to 12 mm yr-1 (i.e. 15 per cent of the whole convergence rate) are accommodated by the clockwise rotation of an Andean block bounded to the East by the subandean fold-and-thrust belt. This reduces the accumulation rate on the subduction interface to 56 mm yr-1 in this area. Coupling variations on the subduction interface both along-strike and along-dip are described. We find that the North Chile seismic gap is segmented in at least two highly locked segments bounded by narrow areas of weak coupling. This coupling segmentation is consistent with our knowledge of the historical ruptures and of the instrumental seismicity of the region. Intersegment zones (Iquique, Mejillones) correlate with high background seismic rate and local tectonic complexities on the upper or downgoing plates. The rupture of either the Paranal or the Loa segment alone could easily produce a Mw 8.0-8.3 rupture, and we propose that the Loa segment (from 22.5°S to 20.8°S) may be the one that ruptured in 1877.

Injection Induced Seismicity in Carbon and Emery Counties, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. R. M.; Liu, M.

2014-12-01

Utah is one of the top producers of oil and natural gas in the country. Over the past 18 years, more than 4.2 billion gallons of wastewater from the petroleum industry has been injected into the Navajo Sandstone, Kayenta Formation, and Wingate Sandstone in two areas in Carbon and Emery County, Utah. We found that the seismicity rate increased significantly 3 to 5 years following the commencement of wastewater injection. The increased seismicity consists almost entirely of earthquakes with magnitudes of less than 3 and is localized in areas seismically active prior to the injection. We suggest that the marked increase in the seismicity rate was induced by pore pressure increase along pre-existing faults in these areas. We have used simple groundwater models to estimate the change in pore pressure, calculate the pore pressure diffusion rate, and evaluate the observed time gap between the start of injection and the onset of the increased seismicity in the areas surrounding the injection wells.

Seismic Signals Recorded During Artificial and Natural Karst Recharge Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilek, S. L.; Luhmann, A. J.; Diniakos, R. S.; Morton, E.; Rinehart, A. J.; Alexander, E. C., Jr.; Alexander, S. C.; Larsen, M.; Green, J. A.

2016-12-01

Seismology has recently been used to explore a variety of surficial processes, including tracking landslides, glaciers, and river flow. The seismic data collected can provide useful information about these flow processes, particularly in areas where other flow-related observations are difficult to make. Underground flow through karst aquifers is an area of significant interest, where most of the flow occurs through preferential flow conduits whose locations are largely unknown. We investigate seismic signals generated by both controlled and natural recharge into a karst aquifer system located near Bear Spring, near Eyota, MN, USA. The controlled recharge experiments involved injecting a pool full of water ( 13,000 L) into a dry overflow spring, which then flowed underground until it was discharged at Bear Spring. The natural recharge fortuitously involved a large rainstorm that supplied over 2 inches of rain in a few hour period, which caused the overflow spring to start flowing and total discharge to increase from a background of 100 L/s to 300 L/s. These events were recorded by 12 seismometers (11 short period and 1 broadband with 500 Hz sampling rate) all placed within the 4500 m2 area containing the dry overflow spring and predicted underground flow path. Spectrograms for the artificial and natural recharge events show significant seismic energy over a broad frequency range (few to nearly 220 Hz) during the periods of artificial recharge, largely contained during the period of water injection. Stations closest to Bear Spring see peak seismic energy in the 20-30 Hz range during these tests, likely related to changes in the underground water flow. During the natural recharge event, we find much longer duration of seismic energy over the broad frequency range. We compare these seismic results with discharge measurements conducted during all tests at Bear Spring, as well as with rainfall measurements recorded for the natural recharge event.

2008 United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Maps by incorporating new seismic, geologic, and geodetic information on earthquake rates and associated ground shaking. The 2008 versions supersede those released in 1996 and 2002. These maps are the basis for seismic design provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, earthquake loss studies, retrofit priorities, and land-use planning. Their use in design of buildings, bridges, highways, and critical infrastructure allows structures to better withstand earthquake shaking, saving lives and reducing disruption to critical activities following a damaging event. The maps also help engineers avoid costs from over-design for unlikely levels of ground motion.

Limit on slip rate and timing of recent seismic ground-ruptures on the Jinghong fault, SE of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xuhua; Weldon, Ray; Liu-Zeng, Jing; Wang, Yu; Weldon, Elise; Sieh, Kerry; Li, Zhigang; Zhang, Jinyu; Yao, Wenqian; Li, Zhanfei

2018-06-01

Quantifying slip rates and earthquake occurrence of active faults on the Shan Plateau, southeast of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, is critical to assessing the seismic hazard and understanding the kinematics and geodynamics of this region. Most previous estimates of slip rates are averaged over either many millions of years using offset geological markers or decades using GPS. Well-constrained millennial slip rates of these faults remain sparse and constraints on recurrence rates of damaging earthquakes exist only for a few faults. Here we investigate the millennial slip rate and timing of recent earthquakes on the Jinghong fault, one of the geomorphically most significant sinistral-slip faults on the central Shan Plateau. We map and reconstruct fault offset (18 ± 5 m) of alluvial fan features at Manpa on the central Jinghong fault, using a 0.1 m-resolution digital surface model obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle survey. We establish a slip rate, ≤2.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr over the past 7000 years, using pit-exposed stratigraphy. This millennial slip rate is consistent with rates averaged over both decadal and million-year timescales. Excavations at three sites near the town of Gelanghe on the northeastern Jinghong fault demonstrate 1) that the last seismic ground-rupture occurred between 482 and 889 cal yr BP, most likely in the narrower window 824-767 cal yr BP, if the lack of large earthquakes in the historical earthquake record is reliable, and 2) that multiple fault ruptures have occurred since 3618 cal yr BP. Combining this finding with a lack of large earthquakes in the 800-year-long Chinese historic record in this region, we suggest an average recurrence interval of seismic ground-ruptures on the order of 1000 years. This recurrence interval is consistent with the slip rate of the Jinghong fault and the size and earthquake frequency on other sinistral faults on the Shan Plateau.

Evaluating the Use of Declustering for Induced Seismicity Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

2016-12-01

The recent dramatic seismicity rate increase in the central and eastern US (CEUS) has motivated the development of seismic hazard assessments for induced seismicity (e.g., Petersen et al., 2016). Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) relies fundamentally on the assumption that seismicity is Poissonian (Cornell, BSSA, 1968); therefore, the earthquake catalogs used in PSHA are typically declustered (e.g., Petersen et al., 2014) even though this may remove earthquakes that may cause damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015; 2016). In some induced earthquake sequences in the CEUS, the standard declustering can remove up to 90% of the sequence, reducing the estimated seismicity rate by a factor of 10 compared to estimates from the complete catalog. In tectonic regions the reduction is often only about a factor of 2. We investigate how three declustering methods treat induced seismicity: the window-based Gardner-Knopoff (GK) algorithm, often used for PSHA (Gardner and Knopoff, BSSA, 1974); the link-based Reasenberg algorithm (Reasenberg, JGR,1985); and a stochastic declustering method based on a space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002). We apply these methods to three catalogs that likely contain some induced seismicity. For the Guy-Greenbrier, AR earthquake swarm from 2010-2013, declustering reduces the seismicity rate by factors of 6-14, depending on the algorithm. In northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas from 2010-2015, the reduction varies from factors of 1.5-20. In the Salton Trough of southern California from 1975-2013, the rate is reduced by factors of 3-20. Stochastic declustering tends to remove the most events, followed by the GK method, while the Reasenberg method removes the fewest. Given that declustering and choice of algorithm have such a large impact on the resulting seismicity rate estimates, we suggest that more accurate hazard assessments may be found using the complete catalog.

Source characterization and dynamic fault modeling of induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, S. K. Y.; Young, R. P.

2017-12-01

In recent years there are increasing concerns worldwide that industrial activities in the sub-surface can cause or trigger damaging earthquakes. In order to effectively mitigate the damaging effects of induced seismicity, the key is to better understand the source physics of induced earthquakes, which still remain elusive at present. Furthermore, an improved understanding of induced earthquake physics is pivotal to assess large-magnitude earthquake triggering. A better quantification of the possible causes of induced earthquakes can be achieved through numerical simulations. The fault model used in this study is governed by the empirically-derived rate-and-state friction laws, featuring a velocity-weakening (VW) patch embedded into a large velocity-strengthening (VS) region. Outside of that, the fault is slipping at the background loading rate. The model is fully dynamic, with all wave effects resolved, and is able to resolve spontaneous long-term slip history on a fault segment at all stages of seismic cycles. An earlier study using this model has established that aseismic slip plays a major role in the triggering of small repeating earthquakes. This study presents a series of cases with earthquakes occurring on faults with different fault frictional properties and fluid-induced stress perturbations. The effects to both the overall seismicity rate and fault slip behavior are investigated, and the causal relationship between the pre-slip pattern prior to the event and the induced source characteristics is discussed. Based on simulation results, the subsequent step is to select specific cases for laboratory experiments which allow well controlled variables and fault parameters. Ultimately, the aim is to provide better constraints on important parameters for induced earthquakes based on numerical modeling and laboratory data, and hence to contribute to a physics-based induced earthquake hazard assessment.

The Global Detection Capability of the IMS Seismic Network in 2013 Inferred from Ambient Seismic Noise Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaebler, P. J.; Ceranna, L.

2016-12-01

All nuclear explosions - on the Earth's surface, underground, underwater or in the atmosphere - are banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). As part of this treaty, a verification regime was put into place to detect, locate and characterize nuclear explosion testings at any time, by anyone and everywhere on the Earth. The International Monitoring System (IMS) plays a key role in the verification regime of the CTBT. Out of the different monitoring techniques used in the IMS, the seismic waveform approach is the most effective technology for monitoring nuclear underground testing and to identify and characterize potential nuclear events. This study introduces a method of seismic threshold monitoring to assess an upper magnitude limit of a potential seismic event in a certain given geographical region. The method is based on ambient seismic background noise measurements at the individual IMS seismic stations as well as on global distance correction terms for body wave magnitudes, which are calculated using the seismic reflectivity method. From our investigations we conclude that a global detection threshold of around mb 4.0 can be achieved using only stations from the primary seismic network, a clear latitudinal dependence for the detection thresholdcan be observed between northern and southern hemisphere. Including the seismic stations being part of the auxiliary seismic IMS network results in a slight improvement of global detection capability. However, including wave arrivals from distances greater than 120 degrees, mainly PKP-wave arrivals, leads to a significant improvement in average global detection capability. In special this leads to an improvement of the detection threshold on the southern hemisphere. We further investigate the dependence of the detection capability on spatial (latitude and longitude) and temporal (time) parameters, as well as on parameters such as source type and percentage of operational IMS stations.

How widespread is human-induced seismicity in the USA and Canada?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van der Baan, M.

2017-12-01

There has been significant public and scientific interest in the observation of changed seismicity rates in North America since 2008, possibly due to human activities. Van der Baan and Calixto (2017) find that the seismicity rate in Oklahoma between 2008 and 2016 is strongly correlated to increased hydrocarbon production. The possibility of systematic correlations between increased hydrocarbon production and seismicity rates is a pertinent question since the USA became the world's largest hydrocarbon producer in 2013, surpassing both Saudi Arabia's oil production and Russia's dry gas production. In most areas increased production is due to systematic hydraulic fracturing which involves high-pressure, underground fluid injection. Increased hydrocarbon production also leads to increased salt-water production which is often disposed of underground. Increased underground fluid injection in general may cause increased seismicity rates due to facilitated slip on pre-existing faults. Contrary to Oklahoma, analysis of oil and gas production versus seismicity rates in six other States in the USA and three provinces in Canada finds no State/Province-wide correlation between increased seismicity and hydrocarbon production, despite 8-16 fold increases in production in some States (Van der Baan and Calixto, 2017). However, in various areas, seismicity rates have increased locally. A comparison with seismic hazard maps shows that human-induced seismicity is less likely in areas that have historically felt fewer earthquakes. The opposite is not necessarily true. ReferencesVan der Baan, M. and Calixto, F. J. (2017), Human-induced seismicity and large-scale hydrocarbon production in the USA and Canada. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 18, doi:10.1002/2017GC006915 AcknowledgmentsThe author thanks Frank Calixto who co-authored the paper on which a large portion of this lecture is based, the sponsors of the Microseismic Industry Consortium for financial support, the SEG for funding and

12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Lin, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Stein, R.S.

2008-01-01

The Wenchuan earthquake on the Longmen Shan fault zone devastated cities of Sichuan, claiming at least 69,000 lives. We calculate that the earthquake also brought the Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Min Jiang faults 150-400 km from the mainshock rupture in the eastern Tibetan Plateau 0.2-0.5 bars closer to Coulomb failure. Because some portions of these stressed faults have not ruptured in more than a century, the earthquake could trigger or hasten additional M > 7 earthquakes, potentially subjecting regions from Kangding to Daofu and Maqin to Rangtag to strong shaking. We use the calculated stress changes and the observed background seismicity to forecast the rate and distribution of damaging shocks. The earthquake probability in the region is estimated to be 57-71% for M ??? 6 shocks during the next decade, and 8-12% for M ??? 7 shocks. These are up to twice the probabilities for the decade before the Wenchuan earthquake struck. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Zion, Y.; Lyakhovsky, V.

2001-05-01

Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (tf - t)m, where tf is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks, with a focus on models of heterogeneous faults in continuum solids. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with non-repeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by non-stationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovsky et al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power law equation for strain proportional to (tf - t)-1/3, and a non-singular power law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (tf - t)1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical expectations, we examine results generated by various realizations of the regional lithospheric model producing seismicity following the characteristic frequency-size statistics, Gutenberg-Richter power law distribution, and mode switching activity. We find that phases of ASR exist only when the seismicity preceding a given large event has broad frequency-size statistics. In such cases the simulated ASR phases can be

Impact from Magnitude-Rupture Length Uncertainty on Seismic Hazard and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Kane, D. L.

2015-12-01

In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments seismic sources are typically divided into two groups: fault sources (to model known faults) and background sources (to model unknown faults). In areas like the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii the hazard and risk is driven primarily by background sources. Background sources can be modeled as areas, points or pseudo-faults. When background sources are modeled as pseudo-faults, magnitude-length or magnitude-area scaling relationships are required to construct these pseudo-faults. However the uncertainty associated with these relationships is often ignored or discarded in hazard and risk models, particularly when faults sources are the dominant contributor. Conversely, in areas modeled only with background sources these uncertainties are much more significant. In this study we test the impact of using various relationships and the resulting epistemic uncertainties on the seismic hazard and risk in the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii. It is common to use only one magnitude length relationship when calculating hazard. However, Stirling et al. (2013) showed that for a given suite of magnitude-rupture length relationships the variability can be quite large. The 2014 US National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) used one magnitude-rupture length relationship (Somerville, et al., 2001) in the Central and Eastern United States, and did not consider variability in the seismogenic rupture plane width. Here we use a suite of metrics to compare the USGS approach with these variable uncertainty models to assess 1) the impact on hazard and risk and 2) the epistemic uncertainty associated with choice of relationship. In areas where the seismic hazard is dominated by larger crustal faults (e.g. New Madrid) the choice of magnitude-rupture length relationship has little impact on the hazard or risk. However away from these regions, the choice of relationship is more significant and may approach

Using Seismic Signals to Forecast Volcanic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvage, R.; Neuberg, J. W.

2012-04-01

Understanding seismic signals generated during volcanic unrest have the ability to allow scientists to more accurately predict and understand active volcanoes since they are intrinsically linked to rock failure at depth (Voight, 1988). In particular, low frequency long period signals (LP events) have been related to the movement of fluid and the brittle failure of magma at depth due to high strain rates (Hammer and Neuberg, 2009). This fundamentally relates to surface processes. However, there is currently no physical quantitative model for determining the likelihood of an eruption following precursory seismic signals, or the timing or type of eruption that will ensue (Benson et al., 2010). Since the beginning of its current eruptive phase, accelerating LP swarms (< 10 events per hour) have been a common feature at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat prior to surface expressions such as dome collapse or eruptions (Miller et al., 1998). The dynamical behaviour of such swarms can be related to accelerated magma ascent rates since the seismicity is thought to be a consequence of magma deformation as it rises to the surface. In particular, acceleration rates can be successfully used in collaboration with the inverse material failure law; a linear relationship against time (Voight, 1988); in the accurate prediction of volcanic eruption timings. Currently, this has only been investigated for retrospective events (Hammer and Neuberg, 2009). The identification of LP swarms on Montserrat and analysis of their dynamical characteristics allows a better understanding of the nature of the seismic signals themselves, as well as their relationship to surface processes such as magma extrusion rates. Acceleration and deceleration rates of seismic swarms provide insights into the plumbing system of the volcano at depth. The application of the material failure law to multiple LP swarms of data allows a critical evaluation of the accuracy of the method which further refines current

TexNet seismic network performance and reported seismicity in West Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savvaidis, A.; Lomax, A.; Aiken, C.; Young, B.; Huang, D.; Hennings, P.

2017-12-01

In 2015, the Texas State Legislature began funding the Texas Seismological Network (TexNet). Since then, 22 new permanent broadband three-component seismic stations have been added to 17 existing stations operated by various networks [US, N4, IM]. These stations together with 4 auxiliary stations, i.e. long term deployments of 20 sec portable stations, were deployed to provide a baseline of Texas seismicity. As soon as the deployment of the new permanent stations took place in West Texas, TexNet was able to detect and characterize smaller magnitude events than was possible before, i.e. M < 2.5. As a consequence, additional portable stations were installed in the area in order to better map the current seismicity level. During the different stages of station deployment, we monitored the seismic network performance and its ability to detect earthquake activity. We found that a key limitation to the network performance is industrial noise in West Texas. For example, during daytime, phase picking and event detection rates are much lower than during nighttime at noisy sites. Regarding seismicity, the high density portable station deployment close to the earthquake activity minimizes hypocentral location uncertainties. In addition, we examined the effects of different crustal velocity models in the area of study on hypocentral location using the local network first arrivals. Considerable differences in location were obtained, which shows the importance of local networks and/or reliable crustal velocity models for West Texas. Given the levels of seismicity in West Texas, a plan to continuously monitor the study area is under development.

Spectral Estimation of Seismic Moment, Corner Frequency and Radiated Energy for Earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satriano, C.; Mejia Uquiche, A. R.; Saurel, J. M.

2016-12-01

The Lesser Antilles are situated at a convergent plate boundary where the North- and South-American plates subduct below the Caribbean Plate at a rate of about 2 cm/y. The subduction forms the volcanic arc of Lesser Antilles and generates three types of seismicity: subduction earthquakes at the plate interface, intermediate depth earthquakes within the subducting oceanic plates and crustal earthquakes associated with the deformation of the Caribbean Plate. Even if the seismicity rate is moderate, this zone has generated in the past major earthquakes, like the subduction event on February 8, 1843, estimated M 8.5 (Beauducel et Feuillet, 2012), the Mw 6.3 "Les Saintes" crustal earthquake of November 24, 2004 (Drouet et al., 2011), and the Mw 7.4 Martinique intermediate earthquake of November 29, 2007 (Bouin et al., 2010). The seismic catalogue produced by the Volcanological and Seismological Observatories of Guadeloupe and Martinique comprises about 1000 events per year, most of them of moderate magnitude (M < 5.0). The observation and characterization of this background seismicity has a fundamental role in understanding the processes of energy accumulation and liberation preparing major earthquakes. For this reason, the catalogue needs to be completed by information like seismic moment, corner frequency and radiated energy which give access to important fault properties like the rupture size, the static and the apparent stress drop. So far, this analysis has only been performed for the "Les Saintes" sequence (Drouet et al., 2011). Here we present a systematic study of the Lesser Antilles merged seismic catalogue (http://www.seismes-antilles.fr), between 2002 and 2013, using broadband data from the West Indies seismic network and recordings from the French Accelerometric Network. The analysis is aimed at determining, from the inversion of S-wave displacement spectra, source parameters like seismic moment, corner frequency and radiated energy, as well as the inelastic

Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active tectonic and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Raed; Adris, Ahmad; Singh, Ramesh

2016-07-01

In the present work, we discuss the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. The present study is the first time effort to create seismic hazard map with the help of GIS. In the proposed approach, we have used Aster satellite data, digital elevation data (30 m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters to be included in the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data is introduced to the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and using the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques (Deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time we have used numerous parameters using remote sensing and GIS in preparation of seismic hazard map which is found to be very realistic.

Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

2007-05-01

The northeastern Caribbean, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, has a long and well-documented history of devastating earthquakes and tsunamis, including major events in 1670, 1787, 1867, 1916, 1918, and 1943. Recently, seismicity has been concentrated to the north and west of the British Virgin Islands, in the region referred to as the Sombrero Seismic Zone by the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN). In the combined seismicity catalog maintained by the PRSN, several hundred small to moderate magnitude events can be found in this region prior to 2006. However, beginning in 2006 and continuing to the present, the rate of seismicity in the Sombrero suddenly increased, and a new locus of activity developed to the east of the previous location. Accurate estimates of seismic hazard, and the tsunamigenic potential of seismic events, depend on an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how strain is being accommodated in this corner region. Are faults locked and accumulating strain for release in a major event? Or is strain being released via slip over a diffuse system of faults? A careful analysis of seismicity patterns in the Sombrero region has the potential to both identify faults and modes of failure, provided the aggregation scheme is tuned to properly identify related events. To this end, we experimented with a scheme to identify seismic sequences based on physical and temporal proximity, under the assumptions that (a) events occur on related fault systems as stress is refocused by immediately previous events and (b) such 'stress waves' die out with time, so that two events that occur on the same system within a relatively short time window can be said to have a similar 'trigger' in ways that two nearby events that occurred years apart cannot. Patterns that emerge from the identification, temporal sequence, and refined locations of such sequences of events carry information about stress accommodation that is obscured by large clouds of

The characteristics of seismic activity during the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, T. E.; Matsubara, M.

2016-12-01

We have relocated hypocenters (total number of hypocenters to be relocated within five independent regions; N= 37,136) during the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake sequence applying the NIED Hi-net phase pick data and waveform cross-correlations to hypoDD (Waldhauser and Ellsworth, 2000), the double-difference method. The relocated seismicity clearly trace linearly to the background seismicity, such as the Hinagu, Futagawa, and Beppu-Haneyama fault zone, and Mt. Aso area, but also form a linear seismic activity at the previously quiet area including northern edge of the caldera of Mt. Aso (Aso caldera) and some areas within the Beppu-Haneyama fault zone. Two mainshocks of M6.5 on April 14th and M7.3 on April 16th occurred at the region where the Hinagu and Futagawa faults meet each other. Our results show that the seismicity forming a shape enough to identify a line along the Hinagu fault for about 20 km immediately after the M6.3 and continues after the M7.5 event. It also make enable to trace a line of seismicity along the Futagawa fault to the east (total of about 28 km), northern part of the Aso caldera, and Ohita region along the Beppu-Haneyama fault zone becomes active only after the M7.5 event. Not only seismicity following the known faults but also seismicity unconfirmed from background seismicity in previous relocation study between 2000 and 2012 (Yano, et al., 2016) appears during the Kumamoto Earthquake sequence. By comparing our high resolution relocated catalog in the Kumamoto region from previous study and this study enable us to identified interesting characteristics; (1) the quiet area making as a gap of seismicity between the northeast extension of the Futagawa fault zone and Mt. Aso region appears only after the M7.5 event, (2) the seismicity forming a vertical or high angle dip in Aso and Ohita regions are selectively activated, (3) the linear seismicity at previously unconfirmed regions where at the northern part of the Aso caldera and along the Beppu

Dense lower crust elevates long-term earthquake rates in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levandowski, William Brower; Boyd, Oliver; Ramirez-Guzman, Leonardo

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the local state of stress is critical in appraising intraplate seismic hazard. Inverting earthquake moment tensors, we demonstrate that principal stress directions in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) differ significantly from those in the surrounding region. Faults in the NMSZ that are incompatible with slip in the regional stress field are favorably oriented relative to local stress. We jointly analyze seismic velocity, gravity, and topography to develop a 3-D crustal and upper mantle density model, revealing uniquely dense lower crust beneath the NMSZ. Finite element simulations then estimate the stress tensor due to gravitational body forces, which sums with regional stress. The anomalous lower crust both elevates gravity-derived stress at seismogenic depths in the NMSZ and rotates it to interfere more constructively with far-field stress, producing a regionally maximal deviatoric stress coincident with the highest concentration of modern seismicity. Moreover, predicted principal stress directions mirror variations (observed independently in moment tensors) at the NMSZ and across the region.

The Seismic Velocity In Gas-charged Magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturton, S.; Neuberg, J. W.

2001-12-01

Long-period and hybrid events, seen at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show dominant low frequency content suggesting the seismic wavefield is formed as a result of interface waves at the boundary between a fluid and a solid medium. This wavefield will depend on the impedance contrast between the two media and therefore the difference in seismic velocity. For a gas-charged magma, increasing pressure with depth reduces the volume of gas exsolved, increasing the seismic velocity with depth in the conduit. The seismic radiation pattern along the conduit can then be modelled. Where single events merge into tremor, gliding lines can sometimes be seen in the spectra and indicate either changes in the seismic parameters with time or varying triggering rates of single events.The differential equation describing the time dependence of bubble growth by diffusion is solved numerically for a stationary magma column undergoing a decompression event. The volume of gas is depth dependent and increases with time as the bubbles grow and expand. It is used to calculate the depth and time dependence of the density, pressure and seismic velocity. The effect of different viscosities associated with different magma types and concentration of water in the melt on the rate of bubble growth is explored. Crystal growth, which increases the concentration of water in the melt, affects the amount of gas that can be exsolved.

Evaluating the effectiveness of induced seismicity mitigation: Numerical modeling of wastewater injection near Greeley, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Megan R. M.; Ge, Shemin; Sheehan, Anne F.; Nakai, Jenny S.

2017-08-01

Mitigation of injection-induced seismicity in Greeley, Colorado, is based largely on proximity of wastewater disposal wells to seismicity and consists of cementation of the bottom of wells to eliminate connection between the disposal interval and crystalline basement. Brief injection rate reductions followed felt events, but injection rates returned to high levels, >250,000 barrels/month, within 6 months. While brief rate reduction reduces seismicity in the short term, overall seismicity is not reduced. We examine contributions to pore pressure change by injection from 22 wells within 30 km of the center of seismicity. The combined injection rate of seven disposal wells within 15 km of the seismicity (Greeley Wells) is correlated with the seismicity rate. We find that injection from NGL-C4A, the well previously suspected as the likely cause of the induced seismicity, is responsible for 28% of pore pressure increase. The other six Greeley Wells contribute 28% of pore pressure increase, and the 15 Far-field Wells between 15 and 30 km from the seismicity contribute 44% of pore pressure increase. Modeling results show that NGL-C4A plays the largest role in increased pore pressure but shows that the six other Greeley Wells have approximately the same influence as NGL-C4A. Furthermore, the 15 Far-field Wells have significant influence on pore pressure near the seismicity. Since the main mitigation action of cementing the bottom of wells has not decreased seismicity, mitigation based on reduced injection rates and spacing wells farther apart would likely have a higher potential for success.

Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Zion, Y.; Lyakhovsky, V.

Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (tf-t)m, where tf is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks. The subcritical crack growth approach developed to describe deformation on a crack prior to the occurrence of dynamic rupture predicts great variability and low asymptotic values of the exponent m that are not compatible with observed ASR phases. Statistical physics studies assuming that system-size failures in a deforming region correspond to critical phase transitions predict establishment of long-range correlations of dynamic variables and power-law statistics before large events. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3-D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with nonrepeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by nonstationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovskyet al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1-D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power-law equation for strain proportional to (tf-t)-1/3, and a nonsingular power-law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (tf-t)1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical

Wind seismic noise introduced by external infrastructure: field data and transfer mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martysevich, Pavel; Starovoyt, Yuri

2017-04-01

Background seismic noise generated by wind was analyzed at six co-located seismic and infrasound arrays with the use of the wind speed data. The main factors affecting the noise level were identified as (a) external structures as antenna towers for intrasite communication, vegetation and heavy solar panels fixtures, (b) borehole casing and (c) local lithology. The wind-induced seismic noise peaks in the spectra can be predicted by combination of inverted pendulum model for antenna towers and structures used to support solar panels, free- or clamped-tube resonance of the borehole casing and is dependent on the type of sedimentary upper layer. Observed resonance frequencies are in agreement with calculated clamped / free tube modes for towers and borehole casings. Improvement of the seismic data quality can be achieved by minimizing the impact of surrounding structures close to seismic boreholes. The need and the advantage of the borehole installation may vanish and appear to be even not necessary at locations with non-consolidated sediments because the impact of surrounding structures on seismic background may significantly deteriorate the installation quality and therefore the detection capability of the array. Several IMS arrays where the radio telemetry antennas are used for data delivery to the central site may benefit from the redesign of the intrasite communication system by its substitute with the fiber-optic net as less harmful engineering solution.

Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its application to high-frequency financial data.

PubMed

Omi, Takahiro; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2017-07-01

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method. Our model can capture not only the slow time variation, such as in the intraday seasonality, but also the rapid one, which follows a macroeconomic news announcement. By analyzing the tick data of the Nikkei 225 mini, we find that (i) our model is better fitted to the data than the Hawkes models with a constant background rate or a slowly varying background rate, which have been commonly used in the field of quantitative finance; (ii) the improvement in the goodness-of-fit to the data by our model is significant especially for sessions where considerable fluctuation of the background rate is present; and (iii) our model is statistically consistent with the data. The branching ratio, which quantifies the level of the endogeneity of markets, estimated by our model is 0.41, suggesting the relative importance of exogenous factors in the market dynamics. We also demonstrate that it is critically important to appropriately model the time-dependent background rate for the branching ratio estimation.

Hawkes process model with a time-dependent background rate and its application to high-frequency financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omi, Takahiro; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2017-07-01

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of variable-width basis functions, and the parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method. Our model can capture not only the slow time variation, such as in the intraday seasonality, but also the rapid one, which follows a macroeconomic news announcement. By analyzing the tick data of the Nikkei 225 mini, we find that (i) our model is better fitted to the data than the Hawkes models with a constant background rate or a slowly varying background rate, which have been commonly used in the field of quantitative finance; (ii) the improvement in the goodness-of-fit to the data by our model is significant especially for sessions where considerable fluctuation of the background rate is present; and (iii) our model is statistically consistent with the data. The branching ratio, which quantifies the level of the endogeneity of markets, estimated by our model is 0.41, suggesting the relative importance of exogenous factors in the market dynamics. We also demonstrate that it is critically important to appropriately model the time-dependent background rate for the branching ratio estimation.

Preliminary Results from the North Anatolian Fault Passive Seismic Experiment: Seismicity and Anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biryol, C. B.; Ozacar, A.; Beck, S. L.; Zandt, G.

2006-12-01

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one of the world's largest continental strike-slip faults. Despite much geological work at the surface, the deep structure of the NAF is relatively unknown. The North Anatolian Fault Passive Seismic Experiment is mainly focused on the lithospheric structure of this newly coalescing continental transform plate boundary. In the summer of 2005, we deployed 5 broadband seismic stations near the fault to gain more insight on the background seismicity, and in June 2006 we deployed 34 additional broadband stations along multiple transects crossing the main strand of the NAF and its splays. In the region, local seismicity is not limited to a narrow band near the NAF but distributed widely suggesting widespread continental deformation especially in the southern block. We relocated two of the largest events (M>4) that occurred close to our stations. Both events are 40-50km south of the NAF in the upper crust (6-9 km) along a normal fault with a strike-slip component that previously ruptured during the June 6, 2000 Orta-Cankiri earthquake (M=6.0). Preliminary analysis of SKS splitting for 4 stations deployed in 2005 indicates seismic anisotropy with delay times exceeding 1 sec. The fast polarization directions for these stations are primarily in NE-SW orientation, which remains uniform across the NAF. This direction is at a high angle to the surface trace of the fault and crustal velocity field, suggesting decoupling of lithosphere and mantle flow. Our SKS splitting observations are also similar to that observed from GSN station ANTO in central Turkey and stations across the Anatolian Plateau in eastern Turkey indicating relatively uniform mantle anisotropy throughout the region.

An analysis of seismic hazard in the Upper Rhine Graben enlightened by the example of the New Madrid seismic zone.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doubre, Cécile; Masson, Frédéric; Mazzotti, Stéphane; Meghraoui, Mustapha

2014-05-01

Seismic hazard in the "stable" continental regions and low-level deformation zones is one of the most difficult issues to address in Earth sciences. In these zones, instrumental and historical seismicity are not well known (sparse seismic networks, seismic cycle too long to be covered by the human history, episodic seismic activity) and many active structures remain poorly characterized or unknown. This is the case of the Upper Rhine Graben, the central segment of the European Cenozoic rift system (ECRIS) of Oligocene age, which extends from the North Sea through Germany and France to the Mediterranean coast over a distance of some 1100 km. Even if this region has already experienced some destructive earthquakes, its present-day seismicity is moderate and the deformation observed by geodesy is very small (below the current measurement accuracy). The strain rate does not exceed 10-10 and paleoseismic studies indicate an average return period of 2.5 to 3 103 ka for large earthquakes. The largest earthquake known for this zone is the 1356 Basel earthquake, with a magnitude generally estimated about 6.5 (Meghraoui et al., 2001) but recently re-evaluated between 6.7 and 7.1 (Fäh et al et al., 2009). A comparison of the Upper Rhine Graben with equivalent regions around the world could help improve our evaluation of seismic hazard of this region. This is the case of the New Madrid seismic zone, one of the best studied intraplate system in central USA, which experienced an M 7.0 - 7.5 earthquake in 1811-1812 and shares several characteristics with the Upper Rhine Graben, i.e. the general framework of inherited geological structures (reactivation of a failed rift / graben), seismicity patterns (spatial variability of small and large earthquakes), the null or low rate of deformation, and the location in a "stable" continental interior. Looking at the Upper Rhine Graben as an analogue of the New Madrid seismic zone, we can re-evaluate its seismic hazard and consider the

Innovative Approaches for Seismic Studies of Mars (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerdt, B.

2010-12-01

In addition to its intrinsic interest, Mars is particularly well-suited for studying the full range of processes and phenomena related to early terrestrial planet evolution, from initial differentiation to the start of plate tectonics. It is large and complex enough to have undergone most of the processes that affected early Earth but, unlike the Earth, has apparently not undergone extensive plate tectonics or other major reworking that erased the imprint of early events (as evidenced by the presence of cratered surfaces older than 4 Ga). The martian mantle should have Earth-like polymorphic phase transitions and may even support a perovskite layer near the core (depending on the actual core radius), a characteristic that would have major implications for core cooling and mantle convection. Thus even the most basic measurements of planetary structure, such as crustal thickness, core radius and state (solid/liquid), and gross mantle velocity structure would provide invaluable constraints on models of early planetary evolution. Despite this strong scientific motivation (and several failed attempts), Mars remains terra incognita from a seismic standpoint. This is due to an unfortunate convergence of circumstances, prominent among which are our uncertainty in the level of seismic activity and the relatively high cost of landing multiple long-lived spacecraft on Mars to comprise a seismic network for body-wave travel-time analysis; typically four to ten stations are considered necessary for this type of experiment. In this presentation I will address both of these issues. In order to overcome the concern about a possible lack of marsquakes with which to work, it is useful to identify alternative methods for using seismic techniques to probe the interior. Seismology without quakes can be accomplished in a number of ways. “Unconventional” sources of seismic energy include meteorites (which strike the surface of Mars at a relatively high rate), artificial projectiles

The MOON micro-seismic noise : first estimates from meteorites flux simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lognonne, P.; Lefeuvre, M.; Johnson, C.; Weber, R.

2008-12-01

The Moon is considered to be a seismically quiet planet and most of the time, the Apollo seismograms were flat when not quakes was occuring. We show in this paper that this might not be the case if more sensitive data are recorded by future instruments and that a permanent micro-seismic noise is existing due to the continuous impacts of meteorites. We perform a modeling of this noise by using, as calibrated seismic data, those generated by the impacts of the Apollo S4B or LEM, by taking care on the scaling law, necessary to express the seismic force with respect to the mass and velocity of the impactors. We also parametrize the dependence of the amplitude of the seismic coda, associated to the maximum amplitude of the seismograms, with respect to the epicentral distance and to the source geometry. This enabling us to use the seismic data of the S4B impacts as empirical waveforms for the modeling of the natural impacts. The frequency/size law of meteoroids impacting the Moon and the associated probability of NEO impacts are however not known precisely. Uncertainties as large as a factor of 3-5 remain, especially for the moderate-sized impacts which are not observed on the Earth, due to the shielding by the atmosphere. We therefore use several meteoroid mass/frequency laws from the literature to generate, with a random simulator, a history of impacts on the Moon during a given period. The seismic signals generated by succession of seismic sources and estimate the frequency/amplitude relationship of such seismic signals. Our results finally provide an estimate for the meteoritic seismic background on the Moon. This background noise was not recorded by the Apollo seismic experiment due insufficient resolution. Such an estimate can be used in designing a new generation of lunar seismometers, for estimating the probability of detecting proposed impacts due to nuggets of strange quark matter , and to inform future lunar based experiments, which require very stable ground

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Briggs, Richard; Wesson, Robert L.; Petersen, Mark D.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s maps of earthquake shaking hazards provide information essential to creating and updating the seismic design provisions of building codes and insurance rates used in the United States. Periodic revisions of these maps incorporate the results of new research. Buildings, bridges, highways, and utilities built to meet modern seismic design provisions are better able to withstand earthquakes, not only saving lives but also enabling critical activities to continue with less disruption. These maps can also help people assess the hazard to their homes or places of work and can also inform insurance rates.

Towards a Comprehensive Catalog of Volcanic Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, G.

2014-12-01

Catalogs of earthquakes located using differential travel-time techniques are a core product of volcano observatories, and while vital, they represent an incomplete perspective of volcanic seismicity. Many (often most) earthquakes are too small to locate accurately, and are omitted from available catalogs. Low frequency events, tremor and signals related to rockfalls, pyroclastic flows and lahars are not systematically catalogued, and yet from a hazard management perspective are exceedingly important. Because STA/LTA detection schemes break down in the presence of high amplitude tremor, swarms or dome collapses, catalogs may suggest low seismicity when seismicity peaks. We propose to develop a workflow and underlying software toolbox that can be applied to near-real-time and offline waveform data to produce comprehensive catalogs of volcanic seismicity. Existing tools to detect and locate phaseless signals will be adapted to fit within this framework. For this proof of concept the toolbox will be developed in MATLAB, extending the existing GISMO toolbox (an object-oriented MATLAB toolbox for seismic data analysis). Existing database schemas such as the CSS 3.0 will need to be extended to describe this wider range of volcano-seismic signals. WOVOdat may already incorporate many of the additional tables needed. Thus our framework may act as an interface between volcano observatories (or campaign-style research projects) and WOVOdat. We aim to take the further step of reducing volcano-seismic catalogs to sets of continuous metrics that are useful for recognizing data trends, and for feeding alarm systems and forecasting techniques. Previous experience has shown that frequency index, peak frequency, mean frequency, mean event rate, median event rate, and cumulative magnitude (or energy) are potentially useful metrics to generate for all catalogs at a 1-minute sample rate (directly comparable with RSAM and similar metrics derived from continuous data). Our framework

Scientific Rationale and Requirements for a Global Seismic Network on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Sean C.; Anderson, Don L.; Banerdt, W. Bruce; Butler, Rhett G.; Davis, Paul M.; Duennebier, Frederick K.; Nakamura, Yosio; Okal, Emile A.; Phillips, Roger J.

1991-01-01

Following a brief overview of the mission concepts for a Mars Global Network Mission as of the time of the workshop, we present the principal scientific objectives to be achieved by a Mars seismic network. We review the lessons for extraterrestrial seismology gained from experience to date on the Moon and on Mars. An important unknown on Mars is the expected rate of seismicity, but theoretical expectations and extrapolation from lunar experience both support the view that seismicity rates, wave propagation characteristics, and signal-to-noise ratios are favorable to the collection of a scientifically rich dataset during the multiyear operation of a global seismic experiment. We discuss how particular types of seismic waves will provide the most useful information to address each of the scientific objectives, and this discussion provides the basis for a strategy for station siting. Finally, we define the necessary technical requirements for the seismic stations.

Using a large-n nodal array to search for remote dynamic triggering in a region of induced seismicity in northern Oklahoma.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña-Castro, A. F.; Dougherty, S. L.; Harrington, R. M.; Cochran, E. S.

2017-12-01

Oklahoma has recently experienced a large increase in seismicity that has been linked to injection of large volumes of wastewater into deep disposal wells, a by-product of oil and gas production. Recent studies have shown that areas with active fluid injection and induced seismicity, such as Oklahoma, may be susceptible to dynamic triggering during passage of seismic waves from large, remote earthquakes. In spring 2016, the 1833-station LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) array was deployed for 30 days to examine an area of active seismicity in Gran County, located in northern Oklahoma. Here we use the LASSO array to look for dynamic triggering caused by teleseismic earthquakes with magnitudes between Mw 6-8 that produce Peak-Ground-Velocities (PGVs) exceeding 10 μm/s at the LASSO array, consistent with PGV values seen to have triggered seismicity at other locations. We focus on examining seismicity around the shallow Mw7.8 event in Ecuador on 04/16/2016 which generated the largest PGV at LASSO (250 µm/s). To establish if earthquake rates change during or following the passage of the teleseismic surface waves, we develop a catalog of earthquakes around the time of each teleseismic event. We first create a preliminary catalogue using a Short-Term Average/Long-Term Average (STA/LTA) detection algorithm window spanning +/- 24 hours around each teleseism,requiring detection at a minimum of 110 LASSO stations to identify an event. Next, we enhance the STA/LTA catalog with manual detections for a period of +/- 1.5 hours around the time of the teleseismic P-wave arrival to explore if triggering occurs that is not detected by the automated procedure. All detected events are then located using standard location techniques. Any observed seismicity rate changes following the teleseismic arrivals will be examined compared to the short-term background rates to determine whether they are statistically significant. If triggering is observed, focal mechanisms will be

SeismoGeodesy: Combination of High Rate, Real-time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for Earth Quake Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Michael; Zimakov, Leonid; Moessmer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 Hz) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic earthquakes replicated on a shake table over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various earthquake scenarios. We will also explore the tradeoffs between various GNSS processing schemes including real-time precise point positioning (PPP) and real-time kinematic (RTK) as applied to seismogeodesy. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time earthquake notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.

Global Seismic Cross-Correlation Results: Characterizing Repeating Seismic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieceli, R.; Dodge, D. A.; Walter, W. R.

2016-12-01

Increases in seismic instrument quality and coverage have led to increased knowledge of earthquakes, but have also revealed the complex and diverse nature of earthquake ruptures. Nonetheless, some earthquakes are sufficiently similar to each other that they produce correlated waveforms. Such repeating events have been used to investigate interplate coupling of subduction zones [e.g. Igarashi, 2010; Yu, 2013], study spatio-temporal changes in slip rate at plate boundaries [e.g. Igarashi et al., 2003], observe variations in seismic wave propagation velocities in the crust [e.g. Schaff and Beroza, 2004; Sawazaki et al., 2015], and assess inner core rotation [e.g. Yu, 2016]. The characterization of repeating events on a global scale remains a very challenging problem. An initial global seismic cross-correlation study used over 310 million waveforms from nearly 3.8 million events recorded between 1970 and 2013 to determine an initial look at global correlated seismicity [Dodge and Walter, 2015]. In this work, we analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the most highly correlated event clusters or "multiplets" from the Dodge and Walter [2015] study. We examine how the distributions and characteristics of multiplets are effected by tectonic environment, source-station separation, and frequency band. Preliminary results suggest that the distribution of multiplets does not correspond to the tectonic environment in any obvious way, nor do they always coincide with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Future work will focus on clustering correlated pairs and working to reduce the bias introduced by non-uniform seismic station coverage and data availability. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Ultra-thin clay layers facilitate seismic slip in carbonate faults.

PubMed

Smeraglia, Luca; Billi, Andrea; Carminati, Eugenio; Cavallo, Andrea; Di Toro, Giulio; Spagnuolo, Elena; Zorzi, Federico

2017-04-06

Many earthquakes propagate up to the Earth's surface producing surface ruptures. Seismic slip propagation is facilitated by along-fault low dynamic frictional resistance, which is controlled by a number of physico-chemical lubrication mechanisms. In particular, rotary shear experiments conducted at seismic slip rates (1 ms -1 ) show that phyllosilicates can facilitate co-seismic slip along faults during earthquakes. This evidence is crucial for hazard assessment along oceanic subduction zones, where pelagic clays participate in seismic slip propagation. Conversely, the reason why, in continental domains, co-seismic slip along faults can propagate up to the Earth's surface is still poorly understood. We document the occurrence of micrometer-thick phyllosilicate-bearing layers along a carbonate-hosted seismogenic extensional fault in the central Apennines, Italy. Using friction experiments, we demonstrate that, at seismic slip rates (1 ms -1 ), similar calcite gouges with pre-existing phyllosilicate-bearing (clay content ≤3 wt.%) micro-layers weaken faster than calcite gouges or mixed calcite-phyllosilicate gouges. We thus propose that, within calcite gouge, ultra-low clay content (≤3 wt.%) localized along micrometer-thick layers can facilitate seismic slip propagation during earthquakes in continental domains, possibly enhancing surface displacement.

Exploring Seismic Noise with the USArray Transportable Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, R.; Busby, R. W.; Simpson, D. W.

2009-12-01

The large number of seismic stations that comprise the EarthScope USArray Transportable Array (TA) seismic network provide an unparalleled opportunity for studying how seismic noise evolves with time over a large portion of the North American continent. Power spectra for every station in the TA data are computed automatically, for every hour of every station-day, by the Quality Analysis Control Kit (QUACK) system at the IRIS Data Management Center. The power spectra utilize hour-long data segments, with 50% overlap between segments, providing spectral values in the band between 20 Hz and 172 s. Thus, at any in-band frequency one can construct a continuous two-year time history of seismic noise for every TA station. When the time variation of the power spectra values across the array are rendered as individual movie frames one can examine the evolution of seismic noise across the full spatio-temporal extent of the TA. Overall, the background noise levels (especially at periods below 10 s) are remarkably uniform across the entire array. Numerous expected features are present, including diurnal and annual variations, enhanced noise levels at coastal stations, transients related to large storms, and episodes when the observations of background noise are dominated by earthquake energy. Upgrades to the TA station instrumentation will provide the capability to measure additional physical factors relevant to seismic noise. All TA stations deployed after August 2009 include MEMS barometers that can measure atmospheric pressure from DC to approximately 0.1 Hz. In additional, several stations have been temporarily equipped with infrasound sensors. Previous research has highlighted the direct effect of atmospheric pressure fluctuations on very long period vertical seismometers. The relationship to noise observed on horizontal seismometers is more complex. However, with a large number of uniform installations it may be possible to make further progress. We will present analyses

Frictional behavior and BET surface-area changes of SAFOD gouge at intermediate to seismic slip rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawai, Michiyo; Shimamoto, Toshihiko; Mitchell, Thomas; Kitajima, Hiroko; Hirose, Takehiro

2013-04-01

The San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) Drilling site is located near the southern end of the creeping section of the San Andreas fault. Experimental studies on the frictional properties of fault gouge from SAFOD drill cores may provide valuable information on the cause of diverse fault motion. We conducted friction experiments on gouge from the southwest deformation zone (SDZ, Phase III core; Hole G-Run 2-Section 8) where creep is confirmed by ongoing borehole casing deformation, at intermediate to high slip rates (10-5 to 1.3 m/s), at a normal stress of about 1 MPa, and under both dry (room humidity) and wet (25 wt% of H2O added, drained tests) conditions. Experiments were performed with two rotary-shear friction apparatuses. One gram of gouge was placed between specimens of Belfast gabbro 25 mm in diameter surrounded by a Teflon sleeve to confine the gouge. Slip rate was first decreased and then increased in a step-wise manner to obtain the steady-state friction at intermediate slip rates. The friction coefficient increases from about 0.13 to 0.37 as the slip rate increases from 0.8 x 10-5 to 9.7 x 10-3 m/s. Our results agree with frictional strength measured at higher effective normal stress (100 MPa) by the Brown University group in the same material. Data shows pronounced velocity strengthening at intermediate slip rates, which is unfavorable for rupture nucleation and may be a reason for having creep behavior. On the other hand, the steady-state friction markedly decreases at high velocity, and such weakening may allow earthquake rupture to propagate into the creeping section, once the intermediate strength barrier is overcome. Gouge temperature, measured at the edge of the stationary sample during seismic fault motion, increased to around 175oC under dry conditions, but increased up to 100oC under wet conditions. We measured BET surface area of gouge before and after deformation to determine the energy used for grain crushing. The initial

Magma replenishment and volcanic unrest inferred from the analysis of VT micro-seismicity and seismic velocity changes at Piton de la Fournaise Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenguier, F.; Rivemale, E.; Clarke, D. S.; Schmid, A.; Got, J.; Battaglia, J.; Taisne, B.; Staudacher, T.; Peltier, A.; Shapiro, N. M.; Tait, S.; Ferrazzini, V.; Di Muro, A.

2011-12-01

Piton de la Fournaise volcano (PdF) is among the most active basaltic volcanoes worldwide with more than one eruption per year on average. Also, PdF is densely instrumented with short-period and broad-band seismometers as well as with GPS receivers. Continuous seismic waveforms are available from 1999. Piton de la Fournaise volcano has a moderate inter-eruptive seismic activity with an average of five detected Volcano-Tectonic (VT) earthquakes per day with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 3.5. These earthquakes are shallow and located about 2.5 kilometers beneath the edifice surface. Volcanic unrest is captured on average a few weeks before eruptions by measurements of increased VT seismicity rate, inflation of the edifice summit, and decreased seismic velocities from correlations of seismic noise. Eruptions are usually preceded by seismic swarms of VT earthquakes. Recently, almost 50 % of seismic swarms were not followed by eruptions. Within this work, we aim to gather results from different groups of the UnderVolc research project in order to better understand the processes of deep magma transfer, volcanic unrest, and pre-eruptive magma transport initiation. Among our results, we show that the period 1999-2003 was characterized by a long-term increase of VT seismicity rate coupled with a long-term decrease of seismic velocities. These observations could indicate a long-term replenishment of the magma storage area. The relocation of ten years of inter-eruptive micro-seismicity shows a narrow (~300 m long) sub-vertical fault zone thus indicating a conduit rather than an extended magma reservoir as the shallow magma feeder system. Also, we focus on the processes of short-term volcanic unrest and prove that magma intrusions within the edifice leading to eruptions activate specific VT earthquakes that are distinct from magma intrusions that do not lead to eruptions. We thus propose that, among the different pathways of magma transport within the edifice, only one will

Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity at The Geysers, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Davis, S.

1996-01-01

The principal results of this study of remotely triggered seismicity in The Geysers geothermal field are the demonstration that triggering (initiation of earthquake failure) depends on a critical strain threshold and that the threshold level increases with decreasing frequency or equivalently, depends on strain rate. This threshold function derives from (1) analyses of dynamic strains associated with surface waves of the triggering earthquakes, (2) statistically measured aftershock zone dimensions, and (3) analytic functional representations of strains associated with power production and tides. The threshold is also consistent with triggering by static strain changes and implies that both static and dynamic strains may cause aftershocks. The observation that triggered seismicity probably occurs in addition to background activity also provides an important constraint on the triggering process. Assuming the physical processes underlying earthquake nucleation to be the same, Gomberg [this issue] discusses seismicity triggered by the MW 7.3 Landers earthquake, its constraints on the variability of triggering thresholds with site, and the implications of time delays between triggering and triggered earthquakes. Our results enable us to reject the hypothesis that dynamic strains simply nudge prestressed faults over a Coulomb failure threshold sooner than they would have otherwise. We interpret the rate-dependent triggering threshold as evidence of several competing processes with different time constants, the faster one(s) facilitating failure and the other(s) inhibiting it. Such competition is a common feature of theories of slip instability. All these results, not surprisingly, imply that to understand earthquake triggering one must consider not only simple failure criteria requiring exceedence of some constant threshold but also the requirements for generating instabilities.

Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity at The Geysers, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomberg, Joan; Davis, Scott

1996-01-01

The principal results of this study of remotely triggered seismicity in The Geysers geothermal field are the demonstration that triggering (initiation of earthquake failure) depends on a critical strain threshold and that the threshold level increases with decreasing frequency, or, equivalently, depends on strain rate. This threshold function derives from (1) analyses of dynamic strains associated with surface waves of the triggering earthquakes, (2) statistically measured aftershock zone dimensions, and (3) analytic functional representations of strains associated with power production and tides. The threshold is also consistent with triggering by static strain changes and implies that both static and dynamic strains may cause aftershocks. The observation that triggered seismicity probably occurs in addition to background activity also provides an important constraint on the triggering process. Assuming the physical processes underlying earthquake nucleation to be the same, Gomberg [this issue] discusses seismicity triggered by the MW 7.3 Landers earthquake, its constraints on the variability of triggering thresholds with site, and the implications of time delays between triggering and triggered earthquakes. Our results enable us to reject the hypothesis that dynamic strains simply nudge prestressed faults over a Coulomb failure threshold sooner than they would have otherwise. We interpret the rate-dependent triggering threshold as evidence of several competing processes with different time constants, the faster one(s) facilitating failure and the other(s) inhibiting it. Such competition is a common feature of theories of slip instability. All these results, not surprisingly, imply that to understand earthquake triggering one must consider not only simple failure criteria requiring exceedence of some constant threshold but also the requirements for generating instabilities.

Induced seismicity and implications for CO2 storage risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerstenberger, M. C.; Nicol, A.; Bromley, C.; Carne, R.; Chardot, L.; Ellis, S. M.; Jenkins, C.; Siggins, T.; Viskovic, P.

2012-12-01

We provide an overview of a recently completed report for the IEA GHG that represents a comprehensive review of current research and observations in induced seismicity, its risk to successful completion of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects and potential mitigation measures. We focus on two topics: a meta-analysis of related data from multiple injection projects around the globe and the implications of these data for CCS induced seismicity risk management. Published data have been compiled from injection and extraction projects around the globe to examine statistical relationships between possible controlling factors and induced seismicity. Quality control of such observational earthquake data sets is crucial to ensure robust results and issues with bias and completeness of the data set will be discussed. Analyses of the available data support previous suggestions that the locations, numbers and magnitudes of induced earthquakes are dependent on a range of factors, including the injection rate, total injected fluid volume, the reservoir permeability and the proximity of pre-existing faults. Increases in the injection rates and total volume of fluid injected, for example, typically raise reservoir pressures and increase the likelihood of elevated seismicity rates and maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes. The risks associated with induced seismicity at CCS sites can be reduced and mitigated using a systematic and structured risk management programme. While precise forecasts of the expected induced seismicity may never be possible, a thorough risk management procedure should include some level of knowledge of the possible behaviour of induced seismicity. Risk management requires estimates of the expected magnitude, number, location and timing of potential induced earthquakes. Such forecasts should utilise site specific observations together with physical and statistical models that are optimised for the site. Statistical models presently show the most

Visualization of volumetric seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spickermann, Dela; Böttinger, Michael; Ashfaq Ahmed, Khawar; Gajewski, Dirk

2015-04-01

Mostly driven by demands of high quality subsurface imaging, highly specialized tools and methods have been developed to support the processing, visualization and interpretation of seismic data. 3D seismic data acquisition and 4D time-lapse seismic monitoring are well-established techniques in academia and industry, producing large amounts of data to be processed, visualized and interpreted. In this context, interactive 3D visualization methods proved to be valuable for the analysis of 3D seismic data cubes - especially for sedimentary environments with continuous horizons. In crystalline and hard rock environments, where hydraulic stimulation techniques may be applied to produce geothermal energy, interpretation of the seismic data is a more challenging problem. Instead of continuous reflection horizons, the imaging targets are often steep dipping faults, causing a lot of diffractions. Without further preprocessing these geological structures are often hidden behind the noise in the data. In this PICO presentation we will present a workflow consisting of data processing steps, which enhance the signal-to-noise ratio, followed by a visualization step based on the use the commercially available general purpose 3D visualization system Avizo. Specifically, we have used Avizo Earth, an extension to Avizo, which supports the import of seismic data in SEG-Y format and offers easy access to state-of-the-art 3D visualization methods at interactive frame rates, even for large seismic data cubes. In seismic interpretation using visualization, interactivity is a key requirement for understanding complex 3D structures. In order to enable an easy communication of the insights gained during the interactive visualization process, animations of the visualized data were created which support the spatial understanding of the data.

Connecting crustal seismicity and earthquake-driven stress evolution in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred; Cattania, Camilla

2017-01-01

Tectonic stress in the crust evolves during a seismic cycle, with slow stress accumulation over interseismic periods, episodic stress steps at the time of earthquakes, and transient stress readjustment during a postseismic period that may last months to years. Static stress transfer to surrounding faults has been well documented to alter regional seismicity rates over both short and long time scales. While static stress transfer is instantaneous and long lived, postseismic stress transfer driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the ductile lower crust and mantle leads to additional, slowly varying stress perturbations. Both processes may be tested by comparing a decade-long record of regional seismicity to predicted time-dependent seismicity rates based on a stress evolution model that includes viscoelastic stress transfer. Here we explore crustal stress evolution arising from the seismic cycle in Southern California from 1981 to 2014 using five M≥6.5 source quakes: the M7.3 1992 Landers, M6.5 1992 Big Bear, M6.7 1994 Big Bear, M7.1 1999 Hector Mine, and M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. We relate the stress readjustment in the surrounding crust generated by each quake to regional seismicity using rate-and-state friction theory. Using a log likelihood approach, we quantify the potential to trigger seismicity of both static and viscoelastic stress transfer, finding that both processes have systematically shaped the spatial pattern of Southern California seismicity since 1992.

Seismic slip on clay nano-foliation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aretusini, Stefano; Plümper, Oliver; Spagnuolo, Elena; Di Toro, Giulio

2017-04-01

Deformation processes active at seismic slip rates (ca. 1 m/s) on smectite-rich slipping zones are not well understood, although they likely control the mechanical behaviour of: i) subduction zone faults affected by tsunamigenic earthquakes and seismic surface rupturing, and ii) landslide decollements. Here we present a set of rotary experiments performed on water-dampened 2 mm thick clay-rich (70% wt. smectite and 30% wt. opal) gouge layers sheared at slip rates V ranging from 0.01 to 1.5 m/s, for 3 m of displacement under 5 MPa normal stress. Microstructural analyses were conducted on pre- and post-sheared gouges using focused ion beam scanning electron and transmission electron microscopy. All sheared gouges were slip weakening in the first 0.1 m of displacement, with friction coefficient decreasing from 0.4-0.3 to 0.1-0.05. Then, with progressive slip, gouges evolved to slip-strengthening (final friction coefficient of 0.47-0.35) at V ≤0.1 m/s and slip-neutral (final friction of 0.05) at V=1.5 m/s. Despite the large difference in the imposed slip rate and frictional behaviour, the slipping zone always consisted of a nano-foliation defined by sub-micrometric smectite crystals wrapping opal grains. The microstructural differences were (1) the thickness of the slipping zone which decreased from 1.5 mm at V≤0.1 m/s to 0.15 mm at V=1.5 m/s, and (2) the structure of the foliated fabric, which was S/C'-type at V≤0.1 m/s and anastomosing-type at V=1.5 m/s. The presence of a similar nano-foliation in all the smectite-rich wet gouges suggests the activation of similar frictional processes, most likely grain boundary and interlayer frictional sliding aided by water films, operating from sub-seismic to seismic strain rates ( 10-10000 1/s). Water films on crystal boundaries and interlayers possibly control the micro- and nano-mechanics of smectite deformation, therefore influencing the bulk frictional behaviour during seismic slip.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Seismicity near a Highly-Coupled Patch in the Central Ecuador Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regnier, M. M.; Segovia, M.; Font, Y.; Charvis, P.; Galve, A.; Jarrin, P.; Hello, Y.; Ruiz, M. C.; Pazmino, A.

2017-12-01

The temporary onshore-offshore seismic network deployed during the 2-years period of the OSISEC project provides an unprecedented, detailed and well-focused image of the seismicity for magnitudes as low as 2.0 in the Central Ecuadorian subduction zone. Facing the southern border of the Carnegie Ridge, a shallow and discrete highly-coupled patch is correlated to the subduction of a large oceanic relief. No large earthquake is known in this area that is experiencing recurrent seismic swarms and slow slip events. The shallow and locked subduction interface shows no evidence of background seismicity that instead occurred down dip of the coupled patch where it is possibly controlled by structural features of the overriding plate. We show a clear spatial correlation between the background microseismicity, the down dip extension of the locked patch at 20 km depth and the geology of the upper plate. The dip angle of the interplate contact zone, defined by a smooth interpolation through the hypocenters of thrust events, is consistent with a progressive increase from 6° to 25° from the trench to 20 km depth. Offshore, a seismic swarm, concomitant with a slow slip event rupturing the locked area, highlights the reactivation of secondary active faults that developed within the thickened crust of the subducting Carnegie Ridge, at the leading edge of a large oceanic seamount. No seismicity was detected near the plate interface suggesting that stress still accumulates at small and isolated asperities

5 years of continuous seismic monitoring of a mountain river in the Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Jordi; Sanchez-Pastor, Pilar S.; Gallart, Josep

2017-04-01

The analysis of background seismic noise variations in the proximity of river channels has revealed as a useful tool to monitor river flow, even for modest discharges. Nevertheless, this monitoring is usually carried on using temporal deployments of seismic stations. The CANF seismic broad-band station, acquiring data continuously since 2010 and located inside an old railway tunnel in the Central Pyrenees, at about 400 m of the Aragón River channel, provides an excellent opportunity to enlarge this view and present a long term monitoring of a mountain river. Seismic signals in the 2-10 Hz band clearly related to river discharges have been identified in the seismic records. Discharge increases due to rainfall, large storms resulting in floods and snowmelt periods can be discriminated from the analysis of the seismic data. Up to now, two large rainfall events resulting in large discharge and damaging floods have been recorded, both sharing similar properties which can be used to implement automatic procedures to identify seismically potentially damaging floods. Another natural process that can be characterized using continuouly acquired seismic data is mountain snowmelt, as this process results in characteristic discharge patterns which can be identified in the seismic data. The time occurrence and intensity of the snowmelt stages for each season can be identified and the 5 seasons available so far compared to detect possible trends The so-called fluvial seismology can also provide important clues to evaluate the beadload transport in rivers, an important parameter to evaluate erosion rates in mountain environments. Analyzing both the amplitude and frequency variations of the seismic data and its hysteresis cycles, it seems possible to estimate the relative contribution of water flow and bedload transport to the seismic signal. The available results suggest that most of the river-generated seismic signal seems related to bed load transportation, while water

Post-seismic velocity changes following the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, revealed by ambient seismic field analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckels, R. EG; Savage, M. K.; Townend, J.

2018-05-01

Quantifying seismic velocity changes following large earthquakes can provide insights into fault healing and reloading processes. This study presents temporal velocity changes detected following the 2010 September Mw 7.1 Darfield event in Canterbury, New Zealand. We use continuous waveform data from several temporary seismic networks lying on and surrounding the Greendale Fault, with a maximum interstation distance of 156 km. Nine-component, day-long Green's functions were computed for frequencies between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz for continuous seismic records from immediately after the 2010 September 04 earthquake until 2011 January 10. Using the moving-window cross-spectral method, seismic velocity changes were calculated. Over the study period, an increase in seismic velocity of 0.14 ± 0.04 per cent was determined near the Greendale Fault, providing a new constraint on post-seismic relaxation rates in the region. A depth analysis further showed that velocity changes were confined to the uppermost 5 km of the subsurface. We attribute the observed changes to post-seismic relaxation via crack healing of the Greendale Fault and throughout the surrounding region.

The Induced Seismicity Roller Coaster: Up, and then Down, and then Up Again

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riffault, J.; Dempsey, D.

2017-12-01

Diverse industries from oil & gas, to geothermal and CO2 storage have triggered significant numbers of earthquakes in the last decade. There is broad agreement that the underlying cause is injection of large volumes of fluid and subsequent pressure rise in the disposal and connected formations. Thus, it stands to reason that reducing injection will have a flow-through effect on the seismicity. For example, in an attempt to mitigate earthquakes in Oklahoma, a 40% injection rate reduction was enforced, resulting in a significant decrease in the seismicity rate. Here, we show that, under certain conditions, cutting the injection rate leads to transients in the seismicity rate that could mislead operators and regulators into a false sense of security. We used semi-analytic solutions of injection and fluid flow in a radial geometry coupled with a model that links the pressure rise with the rate of induced seismicity. We find that cutting the injection rate causes complex pressure transients around the injection well: (i) initially, pressure will continue to increase; (ii), then, it reaches a peak and starts to decline; (iii) finally, the decline is reversed and pressure starts to increase again. Depending on the stress criticality of the system and the size of the injection rate cut, the outcome can be a short-term decrease, or even a total cessation, of the seismicity. However, over the longer term, seismicity will increase to a new steady-state (which is nevertheless lower than that preceding the rate cut.) Our results imply that it can be misleading to rely on observations of the seismicity rate shortly after mitigation measures are implemented as an indicator of their efficacy. It is also possible to use this model to interpret the results injection well step tests, with the aim of quantifying aspects of the crustal stress state.

Post-seismic and interseismic fault creep I: model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetland, E. A.; Simons, M.; Dunham, E. M.

2010-04-01

We present a model of localized, aseismic fault creep during the full interseismic period, including both transient and steady fault creep, in response to a sequence of imposed coseismic slip events and tectonic loading. We consider the behaviour of models with linear viscous, non-linear viscous, rate-dependent friction, and rate- and state-dependent friction fault rheologies. Both the transient post-seismic creep and the pattern of steady interseismic creep rates surrounding asperities depend on recent coseismic slip and fault rheologies. In these models, post-seismic fault creep is manifest as pulses of elevated creep rates that propagate from the coseismic slip, these pulses feature sharper fronts and are longer lived in models with rate-state friction compared to other models. With small characteristic slip distances in rate-state friction models, interseismic creep is similar to that in models with rate-dependent friction faults, except for the earliest periods of post-seismic creep. Our model can be used to constrain fault rheologies from geodetic observations in cases where the coseismic slip history is relatively well known. When only considering surface deformation over a short period of time, there are strong trade-offs between fault rheology and the details of the imposed coseismic slip. Geodetic observations over longer times following an earthquake will reduce these trade-offs, while simultaneous modelling of interseismic and post-seismic observations provide the strongest constraints on fault rheologies.

Quantitative modeling of reservoir-triggered seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hainzl, S.; Catalli, F.; Dahm, T.; Heinicke, J.; Woith, H.

2017-12-01

Reservoir-triggered seismicity might occur as the response to the crustal stress caused by the poroelastic response to the weight of the water volume and fluid diffusion. Several cases of high correlations have been found in the past decades. However, crustal stresses might be altered by many other processes such as continuous tectonic stressing and coseismic stress changes. Because reservoir-triggered stresses decay quickly with distance, even tidal or rainfall-triggered stresses might be of similar size at depth. To account for simultaneous stress sources in a physically meaningful way, we apply a seismicity model based on calculated stress changes in the crust and laboratory-derived friction laws. Based on the observed seismicity, the model parameters can be determined by maximum likelihood method. The model leads to quantitative predictions of the variations of seismicity rate in space and time which can be used for hypothesis testing and forecasting. For case studies in Talala (India), Val d'Agri (Italy) and Novy Kostel (Czech Republic), we show the comparison of predicted and observed seismicity, demonstrating the potential and limitations of the approach.

Broadband spectra of seismic survey air-gun emissions, with reference to dolphin auditory thresholds.

PubMed

Goold, J C; Fish, P J

1998-04-01

Acoustic emissions from a 2120 cubic in air-gun array were recorded through a towed hydrophone assembly during an oil industry 2-D seismic survey off the West Wales Coast of the British Isles. Recorded seismic pulses were sampled, calibrated, and analyzed post-survey to investigate power levels of the pulses in the band 200 Hz-22 kHz at 750-m, 1-km, 2.2-km, and 8-km range from source. At 750-m range from source, seismic pulse power at the 200-Hz end of the spectrum was 140 dB re: 1 microPa2/Hz, and at the 20-kHz end of the spectrum seismic pulse power was 90 dB re: 1 microPa2/Hz. Although the background noise levels of the seismic recordings were far in excess of ambient, due to the proximity of engine, propeller, and flow sources of the ship towing the hydrophone, seismic power dominated the entire recorded bandwidth of 200 Hz-22 kHz at ranges of up to 2 km from the air-gun source. Even at 8-km range seismic power was still clearly in excess of the high background noise levels up to 8 kHz. Acoustic observations of common dolphins during preceding seismic surveys suggest that these animals avoided the immediate vicinity of the air-gun array while firing was in progress, i.e., localized disturbance occurred during seismic surveying. Although a general pattern of localized disturbance is suggested, one specific observation revealed that common dolphins were able to tolerate the seismic pulses at 1-km range from the air-gun array. Given the high broadband seismic pulse power levels across the entire recorded bandwidth, and known auditory thresholds for several dolphin species, we consider such seismic emissions to be clearly audible to dolphins across a bandwidth of tens on kilohertz, and at least out to 8-km range.

Patterned basal seismicity shows sub-ice stream bedforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcheck, C. G.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Schwartz, S. Y.

2017-12-01

Patterns in seismicity emanating from the bottom of fast-moving ice streams and glaciers may indicate localized patches of higher basal resistance— sometimes called 'sticky spots', or otherwise varying basal properties. These seismogenic basal areas resist an unknown portion of the total driving stress of the Whillans Ice Plain (WIP), in West Antarctica, but may play an important role in the WIP stick-slip cycle and ice stream slowdown. To better understand the mechanism and importance of basal seismicity beneath the WIP, we analyze seismic data collected by a small aperture (< 3km) network of 8 surface and 5 borehole seismometers installed in the main central sticky spot of the WIP. We use a network beamforming technique to detect and roughly locate thousands of small (magnitude < 0), local basal micro-earthquakes in Dec 2014, and we compare the resulting map of seismicity to ice bottom depth measured by airborne radar. The number of basal earthquakes per area within the network is spatially heterogeneous, but a pattern of two 400m wide streaks of high seismicity rates is evident, with >50-500 earthquakes detected per 50x50m grid cell in 2 weeks. These seismically active streaks are elongated approximately in the ice flow direction with a spacing of 750m. Independent airborne radar measurements of ice bottom depth from Jan 2013 show a low-amplitude ( 5m) undulation in the basal topography superposed on a regional gradient in ice bottom depth. The flow-perpendicular wavelength of these low-amplitude undulations is comparable to the spacing of the high seismicity bands, and the streaks of high seismicity intersect local lows in the undulating basal topography. We interpret these seismic and radar observations as showing seismically active sub-ice stream bedforms that are low amplitude and elongated in the direction of ice flow, comparable to the morphology of mega scale glacial lineations (MSGLs), with high basal seismicity rates observed in the MSGL troughs

Two types of seismicity accompanying hydraulic fracturing in Harrison County, Ohio - implications for seismic hazard and seismogenic mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlowska, M.; Brudzinski, M.; Friberg, P. A.; Skoumal, R.; Baxter, N. D.; Currie, B.

2017-12-01

While induced seismicity in the United States has mainly been attributed to wastewater disposal, Eastern Ohio has provided cases of seismicity induced by both hydraulic fracturing (HF) and wastewater disposal. In this study, we investigate five cases of seismicity associated with HF in Harrison County, OH. Because of their temporal and spatial isolation from other injection activities, this provide an ideal setting for studying the relationships between high pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis reveals two distinct groups of seismicity. Deeper earthquakes occur in the Precambrian crystalline basement, reach larger magnitudes (M>2), have lower b-values (<1), and continue for weeks following stimulation shut down. Shallower earthquakes, on the other hand, occur in Paleozoic sedimentary rocks 400 m below HF, are limited to smaller magnitudes (M<1), have higher b-values (>1.5), and lack post-stimulation activity. We seek the physical explanation of observed difference in earthquakes character and hypothesize that the maturity of faults is the main factor determining sequences b-values. Based on published results of laboratory experiments and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in the older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in the younger, lower viscosity sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing seismicity on deeper, more mature faults poses higher seismic hazards. The analysis of water and gas production data from these wells suggests that wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity. This indicates more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target reservoir, which may explain why gas production drops more quickly for wells with deeper seismicity. Despite these indications that hydraulic pressure fluctuations induce seismicity, we also find only 2-3 hours between onset of stimulation of HF wells and seismicity that is

A seismically active section of the Southwest Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, David J.; Wallace, Terry C.

1986-10-01

The section of the Southwest Indian Ocean Ridge west of the Prince Edward Fracture zone has a large ridge axis offset and a complicated ridge-transform morphology. We have determined the source mechanisms of transform earthquakes along this portion of the ridge from an inversion of long-period P and SH waveforms. The seismicity is characterized by anomalous faulting mechanisms, source complexity and an unexpectedly large seismic moment release. Several earthquakes with dip-slip components of faulting have been recognized on the central section of the Andrew Bain and 32° E transforms suggesting geometrical complexity along the transform. This region has experienced a Mw = 8.0 transform earthquake in 1942, yet we observe a seismic slip rate during the last 20 years that is still comparable to the predicted spreading rate (1.6 cm/yr). The calculated slip rate over a period of 60 years is three times greater than the expected rate of spreading.

BDS Precise Point Positioning for Seismic Displacements Monitoring: Benefit from the High-Rate Satellite Clock Corrections

PubMed Central

Geng, Tao; Su, Xing; Fang, Rongxin; Xie, Xin; Zhao, Qile; Liu, Jingnan

2016-01-01

In order to satisfy the requirement of high-rate high-precision applications, 1 Hz BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) satellite clock corrections are generated based on precise orbit products, and the quality of the generated clock products is assessed by comparing with those from the other analysis centers. The comparisons show that the root mean square (RMS) of clock errors of geostationary Earth orbits (GEO) is about 0.63 ns, whereas those of inclined geosynchronous orbits (IGSO) and medium Earth orbits (MEO) are about 0.2–0.3 ns and 0.1 ns, respectively. Then, the 1 Hz clock products are used for BDS precise point positioning (PPP) to retrieve seismic displacements of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. The derived seismic displacements from BDS PPP are consistent with those from the Global Positioning System (GPS) PPP, with RMS of 0.29, 0.38, and 1.08 cm in east, north, and vertical components, respectively. In addition, the BDS PPP solutions with different clock intervals of 1 s, 5 s, 30 s, and 300 s are processed and compared with each other. The results demonstrate that PPP with 300 s clock intervals is the worst and that with 1 s clock interval is the best. For the scenario of 5 s clock intervals, the precision of PPP solutions is almost the same to 1 s results. Considering the time consumption of clock estimates, we suggest that 5 s clock interval is competent for high-rate BDS solutions. PMID:27999384

BDS Precise Point Positioning for Seismic Displacements Monitoring: Benefit from the High-Rate Satellite Clock Corrections.

PubMed

Geng, Tao; Su, Xing; Fang, Rongxin; Xie, Xin; Zhao, Qile; Liu, Jingnan

2016-12-20

In order to satisfy the requirement of high-rate high-precision applications, 1 Hz BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) satellite clock corrections are generated based on precise orbit products, and the quality of the generated clock products is assessed by comparing with those from the other analysis centers. The comparisons show that the root mean square (RMS) of clock errors of geostationary Earth orbits (GEO) is about 0.63 ns, whereas those of inclined geosynchronous orbits (IGSO) and medium Earth orbits (MEO) are about 0.2-0.3 ns and 0.1 ns, respectively. Then, the 1 Hz clock products are used for BDS precise point positioning (PPP) to retrieve seismic displacements of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. The derived seismic displacements from BDS PPP are consistent with those from the Global Positioning System (GPS) PPP, with RMS of 0.29, 0.38, and 1.08 cm in east, north, and vertical components, respectively. In addition, the BDS PPP solutions with different clock intervals of 1 s, 5 s, 30 s, and 300 s are processed and compared with each other. The results demonstrate that PPP with 300 s clock intervals is the worst and that with 1 s clock interval is the best. For the scenario of 5 s clock intervals, the precision of PPP solutions is almost the same to 1 s results. Considering the time consumption of clock estimates, we suggest that 5 s clock interval is competent for high-rate BDS solutions.

Evaluation of the Seismic Hazard in Venezuela with a revised seismic catalog that seeks for harmonization along the country borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rendon, H.; Alvarado, L.; Paolini, M.; Olbrich, F.; González, J.; Ascanio, W.

2013-05-01

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment is a complex endeavor that relies on the quality of the information that comes from different sources: the seismic catalog, active faults parameters, strain rates, etc. Having this in mind, during the last several months, the FUNVISIS seismic hazard group has been working on a review and update of the local data base that form the basis for a reliable PSHA calculation. In particular, the seismic catalog, which provides the necessary information that allows the evaluation of the critical b-value, which controls how seismic occurrence distributes with magnitude, has received particular attention. The seismic catalog is the result of the effort of several generations of researchers along the years; therefore, the catalog necessarily suffers from the lack of consistency, homogeneity and completeness for all ranges of magnitude over any seismic study area. Merging the FUNVISIS instrumental catalog with the ones obtained from international agencies, we present the work that we have been doing to produce a consistent seismic catalog that covers Venezuela entirely, with seismic events starting from 1910 until 2012, and report the magnitude of completeness for the different periods. Also, we present preliminary results on the Seismic Hazard evaluation that takes into account such instrumental catalog, the historical catalog, updated known fault geometries and its correspondent parameters, and the new seismic sources that have been defined accordingly. Within the spirit of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), all these efforts look for possible bridges with neighboring countries to establish consistent hazard maps across the borders.

Modelling induced seismicity due to fluid injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S.; O'Brien, G. S.; Bean, C. J.; McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.

2011-12-01

Injection of fluid into the subsurface alters the stress in the crust and can induce earthquakes. The science of assessing the risk of induced seismicity from such ventures is still in its infancy despite public concern. We plan to use a fault network model in which stress perturbations due to fluid injection induce earthquakes. We will use this model to investigate the role different operational and geological factors play in increasing seismicity in a fault system due to fluid injection. The model is based on a quasi-dynamic relationship between stress and slip coupled with a rate and state fiction law. This allows us to model slip on fault interfaces over long periods of time (i.e. years to 100's years). With the use of the rate and state friction law the nature of stress release during slipping can be altered through variation of the frictional parameters. Both seismic and aseismic slip can therefore be simulated. In order to add heterogeneity along the fault plane a fractal variation in the frictional parameters is used. Fluid injection is simulated using the lattice Boltzmann method whereby pore pressure diffuses throughout a permeable layer from the point of injection. The stress perturbation this causes on the surrounding fault system is calculated using a quasi-static solution for slip dislocation in an elastic half space. From this model we can generate slip histories and seismicity catalogues covering 100's of years for predefined fault networks near fluid injection sites. Given that rupture is a highly non-linear process, comparison between models with different input parameters (e.g. fault network statistics and injection rates) will be based on system wide features (such as the Gutenberg-Richter b-values), rather than specific seismic events. Our ultimate aim is that our model produces seismic catalogues similar to those observed over real injection sites. Such validation would pave the way to probabilistic estimation of reactivation risk for

Martian seismicity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Roger J.; Grimm, Robert E.

1991-01-01

The design and ultimate success of network seismology experiments on Mars depends on the present level of Martian seismicity. Volcanic and tectonic landforms observed from imaging experiments show that Mars must have been a seismically active planet in the past and there is no reason to discount the notion that Mars is seismically active today but at a lower level of activity. Models are explored for present day Mars seismicity. Depending on the sensitivity and geometry of a seismic network and the attenuation and scattering properties of the interior, it appears that a reasonable number of Martian seismic events would be detected over the period of a decade. The thermoelastic cooling mechanism as estimated is surely a lower bound, and a more refined estimate would take into account specifically the regional cooling of Tharsis and lead to a higher frequency of seismic events.

Seismic Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

The paper is devoted to researches of influence of seismic actions for industrial and civil buildings and people. The seismic actions bring influence directly on the people (vibration actions, force shocks at earthquakes) or indirectly through various build- ings and the constructions and can be strong (be felt by people) and weak (be fixed by sensing devices). The great number of work is devoted to influence of violent seismic actions (first of all of earthquakes) on people and various constructions. This work is devoted to study weak, but long seismic actions on various buildings and people. There is a need to take into account seismic oscillations, acting on the territory, at construction of various buildings on urbanized territories. Essential influence, except for violent earthquakes, man-caused seismic actions: the explosions, seismic noise, emitted by plant facilities and moving transport, radiation from high-rise buildings and constructions under action of a wind, etc. can exert. Materials on increase of man- caused seismicity in a number of regions in Russia, which earlier were not seismic, are presented in the paper. Along with maps of seismic microzoning maps to be built indicating a variation of amplitude spectra of seismic noise within day, months, years. The presence of an information about amplitudes and frequencies of oscillations from possible earthquakes and man-caused oscillations in concrete regions allows carry- ing out soundly designing and construction of industrial and civil housing projects. The construction of buildings even in not seismically dangerous regions, which have one from resonance frequencies coincident on magnitude to frequency of oscillations, emitted in this place by man-caused objects, can end in failure of these buildings and heaviest consequences for the people. The practical examples of detail of engineering- seismological investigation of large industrial and civil housing projects of Siberia territory (hydro power

Hanford Quarter Seismic Report - 98C Seismicity On and Near the Hanford Site, Pasco Basin, Washington: April 1, 1998 Through June 30, 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DC Hartshorn, SP Reidel, AC Rohay

1998-10-23

Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The staff also locates aud identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the hi~orical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are. compiled archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of zinmore » earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and Ihe Eastern Washington Regional Network (EN/RN) consist-of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The operational rate for the third quarter of FY 1998 for stations in the HSN was 99.99%. The operational rate for the third quarter of FY 1998 for stations of the EWRN was 99.95%. For the third quarter of FY 1998, the acquisition computer triggered 133 times. Of these triggers 11 were local earthquakes: 5 (45Yo) in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2(1 8%) in the pre-basalt sediments, and 4 (36%) in the crystalline basement. The geologic and tectonic environments where these earthquakes occurred are discussed in this report.« less

Hanford Quarter Seismic Report - 98C Seismicity On and Near the Hanford Site, Pasco Basin, Washington: April 1, 1998 Through June 30, 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DC Hartshorn, SP Reidel, AC Rohay.

1998-10-23

Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The staff also locates aud identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the hi orical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are. compiled archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event ofmore » zin earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and Ihe Eastern Washington Regional Network (EN/RN) consist-of 42 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. The operational rate for the third quarter of FY 1998 for stations in the HSN was 99.99%. The operational rate for the third quarter of FY 1998 for stations of the EWRN was 99.95%. For the third quarter of FY 1998, the acquisition computer triggered 133 times. Of these triggers 11 were local earthquakes: 5 (45Yo) in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2(1 8%) in the pre-basalt sediments, and 4 (36%) in the crystalline basement. The geologic and tectonic environments where these earthquakes occurred are discussed in this report.« less

Combination of High Rate, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for Earthquake Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring with a Focus on the Pacific Rim.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimakov, L. G.; Passmore, P.; Raczka, J.; Alvarez, M.; Jackson, M.

2014-12-01

Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 sps) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic earthquakes in Southern California and the Pacific Rim, replicated on a shake table, over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various earthquake scenarios. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time earthquake notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.

Icon flickering, flicker rate, and color combinations of an icon's symbol/background in visual search performance.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Chen; Chiang, Shu-Ying; Chen, Chen-Fu

2008-02-01

The effects of color combinations of an icon's symbol/background and components of flicker and flicker rate on visual search performance on a liquid crystal display screen were investigated with 39 subjects who searched for a target icon in a circular stimulus array (diameter = 20 cm) including one target and 19 distractors. Analysis showed that the icon's symbol/background color significantly affected search time. The search times for icons with black/red and white/blue were significantly shorter than for white/yellow, black/yellow, and black/blue. Flickering of different components of the icon significantly affected the search time. Search time for an icon's border flickering was shorter than for an icon symbol flickering; search for flicker rates of 3 and 5 Hz was shorter than that for 1 Hz. For icon's symbol/background color combinations, search error rate for black/blue was greater than for black/red and white/blue combinations, and the error rate for an icon's border flickering was lower than for an icon's symbol flickering. Interactions affected search time and error rate. Results are applicable to design of graphic user interfaces.

Crustal Fracturing Field and Presence of Fluid as Revealed by Seismic Anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastori, M.; Piccinini, D.; de Gori, P.; Margheriti, L.; Barchi, M. R.; di Bucci, D.

2010-12-01

In the last three years, we developed, tested and improved an automatic analysis code (Anisomat+) to calculate the shear wave splitting parameters, fast polarization direction (φ) and delay time (∂t). The code is a set of MatLab scripts able to retrieve crustal anisotropy parameters from three-component seismic recording of local earthquakes using horizontal component cross-correlation method. The analysis procedure consists in choosing an appropriate frequency range, that better highlights the signal containing the shear waves, and a length of time window on the seismogram centered on the S arrival (the temporal window contains at least one cycle of S wave). The code was compared to other two automatic analysis code (SPY and SHEBA) and tested on three Italian areas (Val d’Agri, Tiber Valley and L’Aquila surrounding) along the Apennine mountains. For each region we used the anisotropic parameters resulting from the automatic computation as a tool to determine the fracture field geometries connected with the active stress field. We compare the temporal variations of anisotropic parameters to the evolution of vp/vs ratio for the same seismicity. The anisotropic fast directions are used to define the active stress field (EDA model), finding a general consistence between fast direction and main stress indicators (focal mechanism and borehole break-out). The magnitude of delay time is used to define the fracture field intensity finding higher value in the volume where micro-seismicity occurs. Furthermore we studied temporal variations of anisotropic parameters and vp/vs ratio in order to explain if fluids play an important role in the earthquake generation process. The close association of anisotropic and vp/vs parameters variations and seismicity rate changes supports the hypothesis that the background seismicity is influenced by the fluctuation of pore fluid pressure in the rocks.

Ambient seismic noise levels: A survey of the permanent and temporary seismographic networks in Morocco, North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Fellah, Y.; Khairy Abd Ed-Aal, A.; El Moudnib, L.; Mimoun, H.; Villasenor, A.; Gallart, J.; Thomas, C.; Elouai, D.; Mimoun, C.; Himmi, M.

2013-12-01

Abstract The results, of a conducted study carried out to analyze variations in ambient seismic noise levels at sites of the installed broadband stations in Morocco, North Africa, are obtained. The permanent and the temporary seismic stations installed in Morocco of the Scientific Institute ( IS, Rabat, Morocco), institute de Ciencias de la Tierra Jaume almera (ICTJA, Barcelona, Spain) and Institut für Geophysik (Munster, Germany) were used in this study. In this work, we used 23 broadband seismic stations installed in different structural domains covering all Morocco from south to north. The main purposes of the current study are: 1) to present a catalog of seismic background noise spectra for Morocco obtained from recently installed broadband stations, 2) to assess the effects of experimental temporary seismic vault construction, 3) to determine the time needed for noise at sites to stabilize, 4) to establish characteristics and origin of seismic noise at those sites. We calculated power spectral densities of background noise for each component of each broadband seismometer deployed in the different investigated sites and then compared them with the high-noise model and low-noise Model of Peterson (1993). All segments from day and night local time windows were included in the calculation without parsing out earthquakes. The obtained results of the current study could be used forthcoming to evaluate permanent station quality. Moreover, this study could be considered as a first step to develop new seismic noise models in North Africa not included in Peterson (1993). Keywords Background noise; Power spectral density; Model of Peterson; Scientific Institute; Institute de Ciencias de la Tierra Jaume almera; Institut für Geophysik

What will Europa sound like? Modeling seismic background noise due to tidal cracking events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panning, M. P.; Stähler, S. C.; Huang, H. H.; Vance, S.; Kedar, S.; Lorenz, R. D.; Pike, W. T.

2016-12-01

Seismology is a powerful tool for illuminating internal structure and dynamics in planetary bodies. With the plan for a Europa lander next decade, we have the opportunity to place a seismometer on the surface and greatly increase our knowledge of internal structure of the ocean world. In order to maximize return from such an instrument, we need to understand both predicted signals and noise. Instrument noise can be quantified well on Earth, but estimating the ambient noise of a planetary body is significantly more challenging. For Europa, we make an initial range of estimates of ambient noise due to ongoing tidally induced events within the ice shell. We estimate a range of cumulative moment releases based on tidal dissipation energy, and then create an assumed Gutenberg-Richter relationship (e.g. Golombek et al., 1992). We then use this relationship to generate random realizations of event catalogs with a length of 1 day, including all events down to a moment magnitude of -1, and generate continuous 3 component seismic records from these catalogs using a spectral element method (Instaseis/AxiSEM, van Driel et al., 2015). The seismic data are calculated using a range of thermodynamically self-consistent layered models of Europa structure, varying ice shell thickness and attenuation (e.g. Cammarano et al., 2006). The noise records are then used to define overall spectral characteristics of the noise and to test methods to take advantage of the ambient noise, such as autocorrelation techniques. Ambient noise characteristics are also compared with candidate instrument noise models which may be included in future Europa missions. F. Cammarano, V. Lekic, M. Manga, M.P. Panning, and B.A. Romanowicz (2006), "Long-period seismology on Europa: 1. Physically consistent interior models," J. Geophys. Res., 111, E12009, doi: 10.1029/2006JE002710. M. van Driel, L. Krischer, S.C. Stähler, K. Hosseini, and T. Nissen-Meyer (2015), "Instaseis: instant global seismograms based on a

The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

2015-01-01

The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

The effects of varying injection rates in Osage County, Oklahoma, on the 2016 Mw5.8 Pawnee earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbour, Andrew J.; Norbeck, Jack H.; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2017-01-01

The 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake occurred in a region with active wastewater injection into a basal formation group. Prior to the earthquake, fluid injection rates at most wells were relatively steady, but newly collected data show significant increases in injection rate in the years leading up to earthquake. For the same time period, the total volumes of injected wastewater were roughly equivalent between variable‐rate and constant‐rate wells. To understand the possible influence of these changes in injection, we simulate the variable‐rate injection history and its constant‐rate equivalent in a layered poroelastic half‐space to explore the interplay between pore‐pressure effects and poroelastic effects on the fault leading up to the mainshock. In both cases, poroelastic stresses contribute a significant proportion of Coulomb failure stresses on the fault compared to pore‐pressure increases alone, but the resulting changes in seismicity rate, calculated using a rate‐and‐state frictional model, are many times larger when poroelastic effects are included, owing to enhanced stressing rates. In particular, the variable‐rate simulation predicts more than an order of magnitude increase in seismicity rate above background rates compared to the constant‐rate simulation with equivalent volume. The observed cumulative density of earthquakes prior to the mainshock within 10 km of the injection source exhibits remarkable agreement with seismicity predicted by the variable‐rate injection case.

Seismicity of the rocky mountains and Rio Grande Rift from the EarthScope Transportable Array and CREST temporary seismic networks, 2008-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, J. S.; Sheehan, A. F.; Bilek, S. L.

2017-03-01

We developed a catalog of small magnitude (ML -0.1 to 4.7) seismicity across Colorado and New Mexico from the EarthScope USArray Transportable Array and CREST (Colorado Rocky Mountains Experiment and Seismic Transects) seismic networks from 2008 to 2010 to characterize active deformation in the Rio Grande Rift. We recorded over 900 earthquakes in the Rio Grande Rift region, not including induced earthquakes and mine blasts, and find that the rift is actively deforming both broadly and in distinct regions. Seismic events that are likely induced, mostly in the Raton Basin, make up 66% of the catalog (1837 earthquakes). Neogene faults in the northern rift in north central Colorado are seismically active in the North Park Basin and northwestern Colorado. The central rift from the San Luis Basin (southern Colorado) to south of the Socorro Magma Body is the most seismically active rift region, and seismicity delineates the deformation in the Colorado Plateau transition zone, which is spatially correlated with volcanic vents, dikes, and faults within the western Jemez Lineament. The eastern Jemez Lineament is nearly aseismic and surrounded by a halo of seismicity culminating in boundaries defined by recent moderate (Mw 3.9 and Mw 3.3) earthquakes. The southern rift is characterized by diffuse seismicity in Texas and Mexico. This study provides an updated seismic catalog built with uniformity in seismometer coverage and low epicentral uncertainties ( 2 km) that allows for regional evaluation of seismicity. During this time period, clusters of seismicity and moderate magnitude earthquakes characterize deformation in a low-strain rate extensional environment.

A first step to compare geodynamical models and seismic observations of the inner core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasbleis, M.; Waszek, L.; Day, E. A.

2016-12-01

Seismic observations have revealed a complex inner core, with lateral and radial heterogeneities at all observable scales. The dominant feature is the east-west hemispherical dichotomy in seismic velocity and attenuation. Several geodynamical models have been proposed to explain the observed structure: convective instabilities, external forces, crystallisation processes or influence of outer core convection. However, interpreting such geodynamical models in terms of the seismic observations is difficult, and has been performed only for very specific models (Geballe 2013, Lincot 2014, 2016). Here, we propose a common framework to make such comparisons. We have developed a Python code that propagates seismic ray paths through kinematic geodynamical models for the inner core, computing a synthetic seismic data set that can be compared to seismic observations. Following the method of Geballe 2013, we start with the simple model of translation. For this, the seismic velocity is proposed to be function of the age or initial growth rate of the material (since there is no deformation included in our models); the assumption is reasonable when considering translation, growth and super rotation of the inner core. Using both artificial (random) seismic ray data sets and a real inner core data set (from Waszek et al. 2011), we compare these different models. Our goal is to determine the model which best matches the seismic observations. Preliminary results show that super rotation successfully creates an eastward shift in properties with depth, as has been observed seismically. Neither the growth rate of inner core material nor the relationship between crystal size and seismic velocity are well constrained. Consequently our method does not directly compute the seismic travel times. Instead, here we use age, growth rate and other parameters as proxies for the seismic properties, which represent a good first step to compare geodynamical and seismic observations.Ultimately we aim

Continuous, Large-Scale Processing of Seismic Archives for High-Resolution Monitoring of Seismic Activity and Seismogenic Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.

2012-12-01

Archives of digital seismic data recorded by seismometer networks around the world have grown tremendously over the last several decades helped by the deployment of seismic stations and their continued operation within the framework of monitoring earthquake activity and verification of the Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. We show results from our continuing effort in developing efficient waveform cross-correlation and double-difference analysis methods for the large-scale processing of regional and global seismic archives to improve existing earthquake parameter estimates, detect seismic events with magnitudes below current detection thresholds, and improve real-time monitoring procedures. We demonstrate the performance of these algorithms as applied to the 28-year long seismic archive of the Northern California Seismic Network. The tools enable the computation of periodic updates of a high-resolution earthquake catalog of currently over 500,000 earthquakes using simultaneous double-difference inversions, achieving up to three orders of magnitude resolution improvement over existing hypocenter locations. This catalog, together with associated metadata, form the underlying relational database for a real-time double-difference scheme, DDRT, which rapidly computes high-precision correlation times and hypocenter locations of new events with respect to the background archive (http://ddrt.ldeo.columbia.edu). The DDRT system facilitates near-real-time seismicity analysis, including the ability to search at an unprecedented resolution for spatio-temporal changes in seismogenic properties. In areas with continuously recording stations, we show that a detector built around a scaled cross-correlation function can lower the detection threshold by one magnitude unit compared to the STA/LTA based detector employed at the network. This leads to increased event density, which in turn pushes the resolution capability of our location algorithms. On a global scale, we are currently building

Innovations in seismic tomography, their applications and induced seismic events in carbon sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Peng

algorithm with the inclusion of full topography that is integrated from the Digital Elevation Model data. We present both synthetic and real data tests based on the compressional (P) wave arrival time data for Kilauea volcano in Hawai'i. A total of 33,768 events with 515,711 P-picks recorded by 35 stations at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory are used in these tests. The comparison between the new and traditional methods based on the synthetic test shows that our new algorithm significantly improves the accuracy of the velocity model, especially at shallow depths. In the real data test, the P-wave velocity model of Kilauea shows some intriguing features. Velocity decrease from the surface to 2 km depth beneath Kilauea caldera indicates a state change of the basalt. Low velocity zones beneath Pu'u'O'o, Heiheiahulu and the Hilina fault system between 5 and 12 km are possible partial melting zones. High velocity anomalies are resolved below 6 km depth beneath the summit caldera, which may suggest the presence of consolidated gabbro-ultramafic cumulates. In the third work, we installed three broadband seismic stations (Test1, Test2 and Test3) in an Enhanced Oil Recovery field to monitor the potential seismic events associated with CO 2 injection. In the two years of continuous seismic data between October 2011 and October 2013, we observed a type of long duration (LD) events instead of typical micro earthquakes, with an average daily rate of 12. The LD events have the following characteristics: (1) their duration varies from ˜30 to ˜300 sec; (2) the amplitude changes smoothly from the beginning to the end of the LD event window; (3) they are local seismic events and were not recorded by regional seismic stations (e.g., ˜200 km away); (4) the waveforms are very different from those of typical earthquakes, but similar to volcanic tremors; (5) the frequency content is mainly concentrated between 0.5 and 6 Hz, which is similar to the frequency band of volcanic tremors; and (6

Reassessment of the Seismicity and seismic hazards of Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Suleman, A.; Elmeladi, A.

2009-04-01

The tectonic evolution of Libya, located at the northern extreme of the African continent, has yielded a complex crustal structure that is composed of a series of basins and uplifts. The present day deformation of Libya is the result of the Eurasia-Africa continental collision. At the end of the year 2005, The Libyan National Seismological Network was established to monitor local, regional and teleseismic activities, as well as to provide high quality data for research projects both locally and on the regional and global scale. This study aims to discuss the seismicity of Libya by using the new data from the Libyan national seismological network and to focus on the seismic hazards. At first glance the seismic activity map shows dominant trends of seismicity with most of the seismic activity concentrated along the northern coastal areas. Four major seismic trends were quite noticeable. A first trend is a NW-SE direction coinciding with the eastern boarder of the Hun Graben. A second trend is also a NW-SE direction in the offshore area and might be a continuation of this trend. The other two trends were located in the western Gulf of Sirt and Cyrenaica platform. The rest of seismicity is diffuse either offshore or in land, with no good correlation with well-mapped faults. Detailed investigations of the Libyan seismicity indicates that the Libya has experienced earthquakes of varying magnitudes and that there is definitely a certain amount of seismic risk involved in engineering projects, particularly in the northern regions. Detailed investigation of the distribution of the Libyan earthquakes in space and time along with all other geological considerations suggested the classification of the country into four seismic zones with the Hun graben zone being the most seismically active zone.

Noise-based seismic monitoring of the Campi Flegrei caldera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaccarelli, Lucia; Bianco, Francesca

2017-03-01

The Campi Flegrei caldera is one of the highest risk volcanic fields worldwide, because of its eruptive history and the large population hosted within the caldera. It experiences bradiseismic crises: sudden uplift with low energetic seismic swarm occurrences. No seismicity is recorded out of these deformation rate changes. Therefore, a continuous seismic monitoring of the caldera is possible only by means of the ambient seismic noise. We apply a noise-based seismic monitoring technique to the cross correlations of 5 year recordings at the mobile seismic network. The resulting relative velocity variations are compared to the temporal behavior of the geophysical and geochemical observations routinely sampled at Campi Flegrei. We discriminate between two kinds of crustal stress field variations acting at different timescales. They are related to a possible magmatic intrusion and to the gradual heating of the hydrothermal system, respectively. This study sets up the basis for future volcano monitoring strategies.

Multidisciplinary Approach to Identify and Mitigate the Hazard from Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, A. A.; Keller, G. R., Jr.; Darold, A. P.; Murray, K. E.; Holloway, S. D.

2014-12-01

Oklahoma has experienced a very significant increase in seismicity rates over the last 5 years with the greatest increase occurring in 2014. The observed rate increase indicates that the seismic hazard for at least some parts of Oklahoma has increased significantly. Many seismologists consider the large number of salt-water disposal wells operating in Oklahoma as the largest contributing factor to this increase. However, unlike many cases of seismicity induced by injection, the greatest increase is occurring over a very large area, about 15% of the state. There are more than 3,000 disposal wells currently operating within Oklahoma along with injection volumes greater than 2010 rates. These factors add many significant challenges to identifying potential cases of induced seismicity and understanding the contributing factors well enough to mitigate such occurrences. In response to a clear need for a better geotechnical understanding of what is occurring in Oklahoma, a multi-year multidisciplinary study some of the most active areas has begun at the University of Oklahoma. This study includes additional seismic monitoring, better geological and geophysical characterization of the subsurface, hydrological and reservoir modeling, and geomechanical studies to better understand the rise in seismicity rates. The Oklahoma Corporation Commission has added new rules regarding reporting and monitoring of salt-water disposal wells, and continue to work with the Oklahoma Geological Survey and other researchers.

Using a coupled hydro-mechanical fault model to better understand the risk of induced seismicity in deep geothermal projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Steffen; Krieger, Lars; Deckert, Hagen

2017-04-01

The changes of fluid pressures related to the injection of fluids into the deep underground, for example during geothermal energy production, can potentially reactivate faults and thus cause induced seismic events. Therefore, an important aspect in the planning and operation of such projects, in particular in densely populated regions such as the Upper Rhine Graben in Germany, is the estimation and mitigation of the induced seismic risk. The occurrence of induced seismicity depends on a combination of hydraulic properties of the underground, mechanical and geometric parameters of the fault, and the fluid injection regime. In this study we are therefore employing a numerical model to investigate the impact of fluid pressure changes on the dynamics of the faults and the resulting seismicity. The approach combines a model of the fluid flow around a geothermal well based on a 3D finite difference discretisation of the Darcy-equation with a 2D block-slider model of a fault. The models are coupled so that the evolving pore pressure at the relevant locations of the hydraulic model is taken into account in the calculation of the stick-slip dynamics of the fault model. Our modelling approach uses two subsequent modelling steps. Initially, the fault model is run by applying a fixed deformation rate for a given duration and without the influence of the hydraulic model in order to generate the background event statistics. Initial tests have shown that the response of the fault to hydraulic loading depends on the timing of the fluid injection relative to the seismic cycle of the fault. Therefore, multiple snapshots of the fault's stress- and displacement state are generated from the fault model. In a second step, these snapshots are then used as initial conditions in a set of coupled hydro-mechanical model runs including the effects of the fluid injection. This set of models is then compared with the background event statistics to evaluate the change in the probability of

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic data, January to December 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakata, Jennifer S.

2006-01-01

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during the year. The seismic summary is offered without interpretation as a source of preliminary data. It is complete in the sense that most data for events of M-1.5 routinely gathered by the Observatory are included. The HVO summaries have been published in various forms since 1956. Summaries prior to 1974 were issued quarterly, but cost, convenience of preparation and distribution, and the large quantities of data dictated an annual publication beginning with Summary 74 for the year 1974. Summary 86 (the introduction of CUSP at HVO) includes a description of the seismic instrumentation, calibration, and processing used in recent years. Beginning with 2004, summaries will simply be identified by the year, rather than Summary number. The present summary includes background information on the seismic network and processing to allow use of the data and to provide an understanding of how they were gathered. A report by Klein and Koyanagi (1980) tabulates instrumentation, calibration, and recording history of each seismic station in the network. It is designed as a reference for users of seismograms and phase data and includes and augments the information in the station table in this summary.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Seismic Data, January to December 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakata, Jennifer

2007-01-01

Introduction The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during the year. The seismic summary is offered without interpretation as a source of preliminary data. It is complete in the sense that most data for events of M>1.5 routinely gathered by the Observatory are included. The HVO summaries have been published in various forms since 1956. Summaries prior to 1974 were issued quarterly, but cost, convenience of preparation and distribution, and the large quantities of data dictated an annual publication beginning with Summary 74 for the year 1974. Summary 86 (the introduction of CUSP at HVO) includes a description of the seismic instrumentation, calibration, and processing used in recent years. Beginning with 2004, summaries are simply identified by the year, rather than Summary number. The present summary includes background information on the seismic network and processing to allow use of the data and to provide an understanding of how they were gathered. A report by Klein and Koyanagi (1980) tabulates instrumentation, calibration, and recording history of each seismic station in the network. It is designed as a reference for users of seismograms and phase data and includes and augments the information in the station table in this summary.

New seismic sources parameterization in El Salvador. Implications to seismic hazard.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Henar, Jorge; Staller, Alejandra; Jesús Martínez-Díaz, José; Benito, Belén; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; Canora, Carolina

2014-05-01

El Salvador is located at the pacific active margin of Central America, here, the subduction of the Cocos Plate under the Caribbean Plate at a rate of ~80 mm/yr is the main seismic source. Although the seismic sources located in the Central American Volcanic Arc have been responsible for some of the most damaging earthquakes in El Salvador. The El Salvador Fault Zone is the main geological structure in El Salvador and accommodates 14 mm/yr of horizontal displacement between the Caribbean Plate and the forearc sliver. The ESFZ is a right lateral strike-slip fault zone c. 150 km long and 20 km wide .This shear band distributes the deformation among strike-slip faults trending N90º-100ºE and secondary normal faults trending N120º- N170º. The ESFZ is relieved westward by the Jalpatagua Fault and becomes less clear eastward disappearing at Golfo de Fonseca. Five sections have been proposed for the whole fault zone. These fault sections are (from west to east): ESFZ Western Section, San Vicente Section, Lempa Section, Berlin Section and San Miguel Section. Paleoseismic studies carried out in the Berlin and San Vicente Segments reveal an important amount of quaternary deformation and paleoearthquakes up to Mw 7.6. In this study we present 45 capable seismic sources in El Salvador and their preliminary slip-rate from geological and GPS data. The GPS data detailled results are presented by Staller et al., 2014 in a complimentary communication. The calculated preliminary slip-rates range from 0.5 to 8 mm/yr for individualized faults within the ESFZ. We calculated maximum magnitudes from the mapped lengths and paleoseismic observations.We propose different earthquakes scenario including the potential combined rupture of different fault sections of the ESFZ, resulting in maximum earthquake magnitudes of Mw 7.6. We used deterministic models to calculate acceleration distribution related with maximum earthquakes of the different proposed scenario. The spatial distribution of

Error analysis of high-rate GNSS precise point positioning for seismic wave measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Yuanming; Shi, Yun; Xu, Peiliang; Niu, Xiaoji; Liu, Jingnan

2017-06-01

High-rate GNSS precise point positioning (PPP) has been playing a more and more important role in providing precise positioning information in fast time-varying environments. Although kinematic PPP is commonly known to have a precision of a few centimeters, the precision of high-rate PPP within a short period of time has been reported recently with experiments to reach a few millimeters in the horizontal components and sub-centimeters in the vertical component to measure seismic motion, which is several times better than the conventional kinematic PPP practice. To fully understand the mechanism of mystified excellent performance of high-rate PPP within a short period of time, we have carried out a theoretical error analysis of PPP and conducted the corresponding simulations within a short period of time. The theoretical analysis has clearly indicated that the high-rate PPP errors consist of two types: the residual systematic errors at the starting epoch, which affect high-rate PPP through the change of satellite geometry, and the time-varying systematic errors between the starting epoch and the current epoch. Both the theoretical error analysis and simulated results are fully consistent with and thus have unambiguously confirmed the reported high precision of high-rate PPP, which has been further affirmed here by the real data experiments, indicating that high-rate PPP can indeed achieve the millimeter level of precision in the horizontal components and the sub-centimeter level of precision in the vertical component to measure motion within a short period of time. The simulation results have clearly shown that the random noise of carrier phases and higher order ionospheric errors are two major factors to affect the precision of high-rate PPP within a short period of time. The experiments with real data have also indicated that the precision of PPP solutions can degrade to the cm level in both the horizontal and vertical components, if the geometry of satellites is

New Madrid seismic zone recurrence intervals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schweig, E.S.; Ellis, M.A.

1993-03-01

Frequency-magnitude relations in the New Madrid seismic zone suggest that great earthquakes should occur every 700--1,200 yrs, implying relatively high strain rates. These estimates are supported by some geological and GPS results. Recurrence intervals of this order should have produced about 50 km of strike-slip offset since Miocene time. No subsurface evidence for such large displacements is known within the seismic zone. Moreover, the irregular fault pattern forming a compressive step that one sees today is not compatible with large displacements. There are at least three possible interpretations of the observations of short recurrence intervals and high strain rates, butmore » apparently youthful fault geometry and lack of major post-Miocene deformation. One is that the seismological and geodetic evidence are misleading. A second possibility is that activity in the region is cyclic. That is, the geological and geodetic observations that suggest relatively short recurrence intervals reflect a time of high, but geologically temporary, pore-fluid pressure. Zoback and Zoback have suggested such a model for intraplate seismicity in general. Alternatively, the New Madrid seismic zone is geologically young feature that has been active for only the last few tens of thousands of years. In support of this, observe an irregular fault geometry associated with a unstable compressive step, a series of en echelon and discontinuous lineaments that may define the position of a youthful linking fault, and the general absence of significant post-Eocene faulting or topography.« less

Preliminary seismic studies at Ceboruco Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escudero, C. R.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ochoa, J.; Robles, F. J.

2012-12-01

Many societies and their economies endure the disastrous consequences of destructive volcanic eruptions. The Ceboruco stratovolcano is located at the west of the Mexican volcanic belt at 21.125o north, 76 km from the pacific coast and 2,280 meters above sea level. It has an eruptive recurrence of 200 years and its last activity was at 1875. This natural hazard could affect more than eight communities and important highways. Scientific knowledge constitutes the only way to avoid or at least to mitigate the negative effects of an eventual eruptive event, accordingly the main objective of this project is monitor and analyze the potential destructive effects of the Ceboruco volcano. Seismic studies began at 2003 with the deployment of one MARSlite station equipped LE3d (1Hz) sensor. Station that works until 2009 and allow us to identify and characterize the seismic activity associated to the volcano;. Since March 2012 we installed four seismic stations, each includes a digital acquisition system TAURUS of Nanometrix and a Lennartz 3D lite seismometer. Batteries are change and data collected monthly. We use the data to establish the average seismic activity rate; we also aim to corroborate previous studies that showed four families of seismic events; and to localize and make preliminary evaluations of the events.

Geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States (excluding California) national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua; Haller, Kathleen M.; McCaffrey, Robert; Hammond, William C.; Bird, Peter; Moschetti, Morgan; Shen, Zhengkang; Bormann, Jayne; Thatcher, Wayne

2014-01-01

The 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the conterminous United States incorporate additional uncertainty in fault slip-rate parameter that controls the earthquake-activity rates than was applied in previous versions of the hazard maps. This additional uncertainty is accounted for by new geodesy- and geology-based slip-rate models for the Western United States. Models that were considered include an updated geologic model based on expert opinion and four combined inversion models informed by both geologic and geodetic input. The two block models considered indicate significantly higher slip rates than the expert opinion and the two fault-based combined inversion models. For the hazard maps, we apply 20 percent weight with equal weighting for the two fault-based models. Off-fault geodetic-based models were not considered in this version of the maps. Resulting changes to the hazard maps are generally less than 0.05 g (acceleration of gravity). Future research will improve the maps and interpret differences between the new models.

The modest seismicity of the northern Red Sea rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Neil C.; Stewart, Ian C. F.

2018-05-01

Inferring tectonic movements from earthquakes (`seismotectonics') relies on earthquakes faithfully recording tectonic motions. In the northern half of the Red Sea, however, events of magnitude 5.0 and above are almost entirely absent from global catalogues, even though GPS and other plate motion data suggest that the basin is actively rifting at ˜10 mm yr-1. Seismic moments computed here from event magnitudes contributed to the International Seismology Centre (ISC) suggest that the moment release rate is more than an order of magnitude smaller than for the southern Red Sea and for the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR), which is spreading at a comparable rate to the central Red Sea and is more remote from recording stations. A smaller moment release rate in the northern Red Sea might be anticipated from its smaller spreading rate, but seismic coupling coefficients, which account for spreading rate variations, are also one order of magnitude smaller than for the other two areas. We explore potential explanations for this apparently reduced seismicity. The northern Red Sea is almost continuously covered with thick evaporites and overlying Plio-Pleistocene sediments. These deposits may have reduced the thickness of the seismogenic layer, for example, by elevating lithosphere temperatures by a thermal blanketing effect or by leading to excess pore fluid pressures that reduce effective stress. The presence of subdued seismicity here implies that tectonic movements can in places be poorly recorded by earthquake data and requires that alternative data be sought when investigating the active tectonics of sedimented rifts in particular.

Two-dimensional analysis of post-seismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with rate-and-state friction and non-linear rock rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muto, J.; Moore, J. D. P.; Barbot, S.; Iinuma, T.; Ohta, Y.; Horiuchi, S.; Hikaru, I.

2017-12-01

We conduct a two-dimensional (2D) analysis of the post-seismic deformation of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with the nonlinear coupling between frictional afterslip and viscoelastic flow. We consider slip on the plate boundary and distributed viscous flow of the lower crust and mantle. We created 2D transects across the Miyagi-Yamagata area where the largest coseismic slip was observed. We use the stress change by the coseismic slip model of Iinuma et al. (2012) to drive the post-seismic relaxation. The simulation is performed by the integral method (Lambert & Barbot, 2016) expanded to plane strain (Barbot, Moore, & Lambert, 2017). Despite the simple 2D approximation, we look for a realistic model compatible with mineral physics to explain geodetic observations including 5 years of seafloor observations (Tomita et al., 2017). In the ductile regions, the model employs a bi-viscous Burgers rheology with power-law flow (Masuti et al., 2016). The steady-state viscosity is estimated based on a thermal structure obtained by thermal-flow model including the wedge corner flow (Horiuchi & Iwamori, 2016). We model afterslip by the regularized rate-strengthening approximation of the rate-and-state dependent friction law (Barbot et al., 2009). The combination of power-law rheology with stress-driven afterslip explains the observed 2D displacement fields well during the 5-year post-seismic period. We also find that the model requires a low viscosity ( 1018 Pas) body beneath the quaternary volcano (Mt. Naruko) to reproduce the localized subsidence detected in the 9-month post-seismic period (Muto et al., 2016). The introduction of the low-viscosity body also reproduces quick recovery of the subsidence in the 5-year period. Equipped with a reference model that fits available geodetic observations, we discuss the importance of the mechanical coupling between afterslip and viscoelastic flow. We find that ignoring the traction change on the fault by viscoelastic flow introduces

INDUCED SEISMICITY. Seismicity triggered by fluid injection-induced aseismic slip.

PubMed

Guglielmi, Yves; Cappa, Frédéric; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Henry, Pierre; Elsworth, Derek

2015-06-12

Anthropogenic fluid injections are known to induce earthquakes. The mechanisms involved are poorly understood, and our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated with geothermal energy or unconventional hydrocarbon production remains limited. We directly measure fault slip and seismicity induced by fluid injection into a natural fault. We observe highly dilatant and slow [~4 micrometers per second (μm/s)] aseismic slip associated with a 20-fold increase of permeability, which transitions to faster slip (~10 μm/s) associated with reduced dilatancy and micro-earthquakes. Most aseismic slip occurs within the fluid-pressurized zone and obeys a rate-strengthening friction law μ = 0.67 + 0.045ln(v/v₀) with v₀ = 0.1 μm/s. Fluid injection primarily triggers aseismic slip in this experiment, with micro-earthquakes being an indirect effect mediated by aseismic creep. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The Evolution of the Seismic-Aseismic Transition During the Earthquake Cycle: Constraints from the Time-Dependent Depth Distribution of Aftershocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolandone, F.; Bürgmann, R.; Nadeau, R.; Freed, A.

2003-12-01

We have demonstrated that in the aftermath of large earthquakes, the depth extent of aftershocks shows an immediate deepening from pre-earthquake levels, followed by a time-dependent postseismic shallowing. We use these seismic data to constrain the variation of the depth of the seismic-aseismic transition with time throughout the earthquake cycle. Most studies of the seismic-aseismic transition have focussed on the effect of temperature and/or lithology on the transition either from brittle faulting to viscous flow or from unstable to stable sliding. They have shown that the maximum depth of seismic activity is well correlated with the spatial variations of these two parameters. However, little has been done to examine how the maximum depth of seismogenic faulting varies locally, at the scale of a fault segment, during the course of the earthquake cycle. Geologic and laboratory observations indicate that the depth of the seismic-aseismic transition should vary with strain rate and thus change with time throughout the earthquake cycle. We quantify the time-dependent variations in the depth of seismicity on various strike-slip faults in California before and after large earthquakes. We specifically investigate (1) the deepening of the aftershocks relative to the background seismicity, (2) the time constant of the postseismic shallowing of the deepest earthquakes, and (3) the correlation of the time-dependent pattern with the coseismic slip distribution and the expected stress increase. Together with geodetic measurements, these seismological observations form the basis for developing more sophisticated models for the mechanical evolution of strike-slip shear zones during the earthquake cycle. We develop non-linear viscoelastic models, for which the brittle-ductile transition is not fixed, but varies with assumed temperature and calculated stress gradients. We use them to place constraints on strain rate at depth, on time-dependent rheology, and on the partitioning

Real-time Seismicity Evaluation as a Tool for the Earthquake and Tsunami Short-Term Hazard Assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, G. A.

2010-12-01

Seismic activity is a 3-D process varying in the space-time-magnitude domains. When in a target area the short-term activity deviates significantly from the usual (background) seismicity, then the modes of activity may include swarms, temporary quiescence, foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, doublets and multiplets. This implies that making decision for civil protection purposes requires short-term seismic hazard assessment and evaluation. When a sizable earthquake takes place the critical question is about the nature of the event: mainshock or a foreshock which foreshadows the occurrence of a biger one? Also, the seismicity increase or decrease in a target area may signify either precursory changes or just transient seismicity variations (e.g. swarms) which do not conclude with a strong earthquake. Therefore, the real-time seismicity evaluation is the backbone of the short-term hazard assessment. The algorithm FORMA (Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock) is presented which detects and updates automatically and in near real-time significant variations of the seismicity according to the earthquake data flow from the monitoring center. The detection of seismicity variations is based on an expert system which for a given target area indicates the mode of seismicity from the variation of two parameters: the seismicity rate, r, and the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation. Alert levels are produced according to the significance levels of the changes of r and b. The good performance of FORMA was verified retrospectively in several earthquake cases, e.g. for the L’ Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake sequence (Mmax 6.3) (Papadopoulos et al., 2010). Real-time testing was executed during January 2010 with the strong earthquake activity (Mmax 5.6) in the Corinth Rift, Central Greece. Evaluation outputs were publicly documented on a nearly daily basis with successful results. Evaluation of coastal and submarine earthquake activity is also of crucial importance for the

Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the landers and hector mine earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Bodin, P.; Harris, R.A.

2001-01-01

The proximity and similarity of the 1992, magnitude 7.3 Landers and 1999, magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes in California permit testing of earthquake triggering hypotheses not previously possible. The Hector Mine earthquake confirmed inferences that transient, oscillatory 'dynamic' deformations radiated as seismic waves can trigger seismicity rate increases, as proposed for the Landers earthquake1-6. Here we quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of the seismicity rate changes7. The seismicity rate increase was to the north for the Landers earthquake and primarily to the south for the Hector Mine earthquake. We suggest that rupture directivity results in elevated dynamic deformations north and south of the Landers and Hector Mine faults, respectively, as evident in the asymmetry of the recorded seismic velocity fields. Both dynamic and static stress changes seem important for triggering in the near field with dynamic stress changes dominating at greater distances. Peak seismic velocities recorded for each earthquake suggest the existence of, and place bounds on, dynamic triggering thresholds. These thresholds vary from a few tenths to a few MPa in most places, depend on local conditions, and exceed inferred static thresholds by more than an order of magnitude. At some sites, the onset of triggering was delayed until after the dynamic deformations subsided. Physical mechanisms consistent with all these observations may be similar to those that give rise to liquefaction or cyclic fatigue.

Active seismic experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kovach, R. L.; Watkins, J. S.; Talwani, P.

1972-01-01

The Apollo 16 active seismic experiment (ASE) was designed to generate and monitor seismic waves for the study of the lunar near-surface structure. Several seismic energy sources are used: an astronaut-activated thumper device, a mortar package that contains rocket-launched grenades, and the impulse produced by the lunar module ascent. Analysis of some seismic signals recorded by the ASE has provided data concerning the near-surface structure at the Descartes landing site. Two compressional seismic velocities have so far been recognized in the seismic data. The deployment of the ASE is described, and the significant results obtained are discussed.

Kernel Smoothing Methods for Non-Poissonian Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

For almost fifty years, the mainstay of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been the methodology developed by Cornell, which assumes that earthquake occurrence is a Poisson process, and that the spatial distribution of epicentres can be represented by a set of polygonal source zones, within which seismicity is uniform. Based on Vere-Jones' use of kernel smoothing methods for earthquake forecasting, these methods were adapted in 1994 by the author for application to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. There is no need for ambiguous boundaries of polygonal source zones, nor for the hypothesis of time independence of earthquake sequences. In Europe, there are many regions where seismotectonic zones are not well delineated, and where there is a dynamic stress interaction between events, so that they cannot be described as independent. From the Amatrice earthquake of 24 August, 2016, the subsequent damaging earthquakes in Central Italy over months were not independent events. Removing foreshocks and aftershocks is not only an ill-defined task, it has a material effect on seismic hazard computation. Because of the spatial dispersion of epicentres, and the clustering of magnitudes for the largest events in a sequence, which might all be around magnitude 6, the specific event causing the highest ground motion can vary from one site location to another. Where significant active faults have been clearly identified geologically, they should be modelled as individual seismic sources. The remaining background seismicity should be modelled as non-Poissonian using statistical kernel smoothing methods. This approach was first applied for seismic hazard analysis at a UK nuclear power plant two decades ago, and should be included within logic-trees for future probabilistic seismic hazard at critical installations within Europe. In this paper, various salient European applications are given.

Kinematics, seismotectonics and seismic potential of the eastern sector of the European Alps from GPS and seismic deformation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serpelloni, E.; Vannucci, G.; Anderlini, L.; Bennett, R. A.

2016-10-01

We present a first synoptic view of the seismotectonics and kinematics of the eastern sector of the European Alps using geodetic and seismological data. The study area marks the boundary between the Adriatic and the Eurasian plates, through a wide zone of deformation including a variety of tectonic styles within a complex network of crustal and lithospheric faults. A new dense GPS velocity field, new focal mechanisms and seismic catalogues, with uniformly re-calibrated magnitudes (from 1005), are used to estimate geodetic and seismic deformation rates and to develop interseismic kinematic and fault locking models. Kinematic indicators from seismological and geodetic data are remarkably consistent at different spatial scales. In addition to large-scale surface motion, GPS velocities highlight more localized deformation features revealing a complex configuration of interacting tectonic blocks, for which new constraints are provided in this work accounting for elastic strain build up at faults bonding rotating blocks. The geodetic and seismological data highlight two belts of higher deformation rates running WSW-ENE along the Eastern Southern Alps (ESA) in Italy and E-W in Slovenia, where deformation is more distributed. The highest geodetic strain-rates are observed in the Montello-Cansiglio segment of the ESA thrust front, for which the higher density of the GPS network provides indications of limited interseismic locking. Most of the dextral shear between the Eastern Southern Alps and the Eastern Alps blocks is accommodated along the Fella-Sava fault rather than the Periadriatic fault. In northern Croatia and Slovenia geodetic and seismological data allow constraining the kinematics of the active structures bounding the triangular-shaped region encompassing the Sava folds, which plays a major role in accommodating the transition from Adria- to Pannonian-like motion trends. The analysis of the seismic and geodetic moment rates provides new insights into the seismic

Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

2017-12-01

We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

Precursory seismic quiescence along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone: past and present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukrungsri, Santawat; Pailoplee, Santi

2017-03-01

In this study, the seismic quiescence prior to hazardous earthquakes was analyzed along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ). The seismicity data were screened statistically with mainshock earthquakes of M w ≥ 4.4 reported during 1980-2015 being defined as the completeness database. In order to examine the possibility of using the seismic quiescence stage as a marker of subsequent earthquakes, the seismicity data reported prior to the eight major earthquakes along the SASZ were analyzed for changes in their seismicity rate using the statistical Z test. Iterative tests revealed that Z factors of N = 50 events and T = 2 years were optimal for detecting sudden rate changes such as quiescence and to map these spatially. The observed quiescence periods conformed to the subsequent major earthquake occurrences both spatially and temporally. Using suitable conditions obtained from successive retrospective tests, the seismicity rate changes were then mapped from the most up-to-date seismicity data available. This revealed three areas along the SASZ that might generate a major earthquake in the future: (i) Nicobar Islands ( Z = 6.7), (ii) the western offshore side of Sumatra Island ( Z = 7.1), and (iii) western Myanmar ( Z = 6.7). The performance of a stochastic test using a number of synthetic randomized catalogues indicated these levels of anomalous Z value showed the above anomaly is unlikely due to chance or random fluctuations of the earthquake. Thus, these three areas have a high possibility of generating a strong-to-major earthquake in the future.

Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Cramer, C.H.; Reichle, M.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Hanks, T.C.

2000-01-01

We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the

Is the Recent Increase in Oklahoma Seismicity a Natural or Triggered Phenomenon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, R.; Zoback, M. D.

2012-12-01

As the rate of magnitude 2.5 and larger earthquakes in the state of Oklahoma increased dramatically in late 2009, we have investigated the question of whether this increase is a natural phenomenon or related to wastewater injection. Injection triggered earthquakes have been observed in other areas of the central and eastern U.S. in recent years (for example, at the Dallas-Ft. Worth airport, near Guy, Arkansas and in Youngstown, Ohio). Given that wastewater injection occurs throughout Oklahoma, we have investigated pressure and injection rate data from about 5,700 state-regulated injection wells to determine if there are spatial and temporal correlations that might account for the recent increase in seismicity. It is important to note that the recent seismicity has been occurring throughout much of the state, although many of the events occur in several clusters. One such cluster is near Jones, OK (Oklahoma county) where about 4 M2.5+ earthquakes occurred within a 20 km radius over a 10 year period before the increase in seismicity and about 147 M2.5+ events have occurred in the 3 years since then. In this area, the wastewater injection rate has been relatively constant (about a million barrels per month) over the past decade while wellhead pressures have been slowly decreasing. These observations do not support the hypothesis that the recent increase in seismicity has been triggered by a corresponding increase in injection although the amount of injection and number of injection wells did increase markedly in this area in the late 1990's. Similarly, in the region of Lincoln County where the M5.6 earthquake occurred in November 2011, there have been no significant increases in injection volumes (and slightly decreasing wellhead pressures) over the past decade but here too there was an increase in the number of injection wells and injection rates in the late 1990's. To date, we have found neither spatial nor temporal correlations between the changes in seismicity

Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, A.; Yu, X.; Shen, Z.

2014-12-01

Although the seismically active North China basin has the most complete written records of pre-instrumentation earthquakes in the world, this information has not been fully utilized for assessing potential earthquake hazards of this densely populated region that hosts ~200 million people. In this study, we use the historical records to document the earthquake migration pattern and the existence of a 180-km seismic gap along the 600-km long right-slip Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian (THC) fault zone that cuts across the North China basin. The newly recognized seismic gap, which is centered at Tianjin with a population of 11 million people and ~120 km from Beijing (22 million people) and Tangshan (7 million people), has not been ruptured in the past 1000 years by M≥6 earthquakes. The seismic migration pattern in the past millennium suggests that the epicenters of major earthquakes have shifted towards this seismic gap along the THC fault, which implies that the 180- km gap could be the site of the next great earthquake with M≈7.6 if it is ruptured by a single event. Alternatively, the seismic gap may be explained by aseismic creeping or seismic strain transfer between active faults.

Submarine landslide and tsunami hazards offshore southern Alaska: Seismic strengthening versus rapid sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawyer, Derek E.; Reece, Robert S.; Gulick, Sean P. S.; Lenz, Brandi L.

2017-08-01

The southern Alaskan offshore margin is prone to submarine landslides and tsunami hazards due to seismically active plate boundaries and extreme sedimentation rates from glacially enhanced mountain erosion. We examine the submarine landslide potential with new shear strength measurements acquired by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 341 on the continental slope and Surveyor Fan. These data reveal lower than expected sediment strength. Contrary to other active margins where seismic strengthening enhances slope stability, the high-sedimentation margin offshore southern Alaska behaves like a passive margin from a shear strength perspective. We interpret that seismic strengthening occurs but is offset by high sedimentation rates and overpressure. This conclusion is supported by shear strength outside of the fan that follow an active margin trend. More broadly, seismically active margins with wet-based glaciers are susceptible to submarine landslide hazards because of the combination of high sedimentation rates and earthquake shaking.

New Constraints on Late Pleistocene - Holocene Slip Rates and Seismic Behavior Along the Panamint Valley Fault Zone, Eastern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, W.; Kirby, E.; McDonald, E.; Walker, J.; Gosse, J.

2008-12-01

Space-time patterns of seismic strain release along active fault systems can provide insight into the geodynamics of deforming lithosphere. Along the eastern California shear zone, fault systems south of the Garlock fault appear to have experienced an ongoing pulse of seismic activity over the past ca. 1 kyr (Rockwell et al., 2000). Recently, this cluster of seismicity has been implicated as both cause and consequence of the oft-cited discrepancy between geodetic velocities and geologic slip rates in this region (Dolan et al., 2007; Oskin et al., 2008). Whether other faults within the shear zone exhibit similar behavior remains uncertain. Here we report the preliminary results of new investigations of slip rates and seismic history along the Panamint Valley fault zone (PVFZ). The PVFZ is characterized by dextral, oblique-normal displacement along a moderately to shallowly-dipping range front fault. Previous workers (Zhang et al., 1990) identified a relatively recent surface rupture confined to a ~25 km segment of the southern fault zone and associated with dextral displacements of ~3 m. Our mapping reveals that youthful scarps ranging from 2-4 m in height are distributed along the central portion of the fault zone for at least 50 km. North of Ballarat, a releasing jog in the fault zone forms a 2-3 km long embayment. Displacement of debris-flow levees and channels along NE-striking faults that confirm that displacement is nearly dip-slip, consistent with an overall transport direction toward ~340°, and affording an opportunity to constrain fault displacement directly from the vertical offset of alluvial surfaces of varying age. At the mouth of Happy Canyon, the frontal fault strand displaces a fresh debris-flow by ~3-4 m; soil development atop the debris-flow surface is incipient to negligible. Radiocarbon ages from logs embedded in the flow matrix constrain the timing of the most recent event to younger than ~ 600 cal yr BP. Older alluvial surfaces, such as that

New seismic hazard maps for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.; Frankel, A.; Petersen, M.; Leyendecker, E.

2010-01-01

The probabilistic methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is applied to a new seismic hazard assessment for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Modeled seismic sources include gridded historical seismicity, subduction-interface and strike-slip faults with known slip rates, and two broad zones of crustal extension with seismicity rates constrained by GPS geodesy. We use attenuation relations from western North American and worldwide data, as well as a Caribbean-specific relation. Results are presented as maps of peak ground acceleration and 0.2- and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration for 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years (return periods of about 2,500 and 500 years, respectively). This paper describes the hazard model and maps that were balloted by the Building Seismic Safety Council and recommended for the 2003 NEHRP Provisions and the 2006 International Building Code. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Relative arrival-time upper-mantle tomography and the elusive background mean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastow, Ian D.

2012-08-01

The interpretation of seismic tomographic images of upper-mantle seismic wave speed structure is often a matter of considerable debate because the observations can usually be explained by a range of hypotheses, including variable temperature, composition, anisotropy, and the presence of partial melt. An additional problem, often overlooked in tomographic studies using relative as opposed to absolute arrival-times, is the issue of the resulting velocity model's zero mean. In shield areas, for example, relative arrival-time analysis strips off a background mean velocity structure that is markedly fast compared to the global average. Conversely, in active areas, the background mean is often markedly slow compared to the global average. Appreciation of this issue is vital when interpreting seismic tomographic images: 'high' and 'low' velocity anomalies should not necessarily be interpreted, respectively, as 'fast' and 'slow' compared to 'normal mantle'. This issue has been discussed in the seismological literature in detail over the years, yet subsequent tomography studies have still fallen into the trap of mis-interpreting their velocity models. I highlight here some recent examples of this and provide a simple strategy to address the problem using constraints from a recent global tomographic model, and insights from catalogues of absolute traveltime anomalies. Consultation of such absolute measures of seismic wave speed should be routine during regional tomographic studies, if only for the benefit of the broader Earth Science community, who readily follow the red = hot and slow, blue = cold and fast rule of thumb when interpreting the images for themselves.

Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing.

PubMed

Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J; Baxter, Nicholas D; Currie, Brian S

2018-02-20

Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: ( i ) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values < 1, and many post-shut-in earthquakes, versus ( ii ) shallower earthquakes in Paleozoic rocks ∼400 m below HF, with smaller magnitudes (M < 1), b-values > 1.5, and few post-shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J.; Baxter, Nicholas D.; Currie, Brian S.

2018-02-01

Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values < 1, and many post–shut-in earthquakes, versus (ii) shallower earthquakes in Paleozoic rocks ˜400 m below HF, with smaller magnitudes (M < 1), b-values > 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ˜1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

Distribution of aseismic slip rate on the Hayward fault inferred from seismic and geodetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, D.A.; Burgmann, R.; Nadeau, R.M.; d'Alessio, M.

2005-01-01

We solve for the slip rate distribution on the Hayward fault by performing a least squares inversion,of geodetic and seismic data sets. Our analysis focuses on the northern 60 km of the fault. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 13 independent ERS interferograms are stacked to obtain range change rates from 1992 to 2000. Horizontal surface displacement rates at 141 bench marks are measured using GPS from 1994 to 2003. Surface creep observations and estimates of deep slip rates determined from characteristic repeating earthquake sequences are also incorporated in the inversion. The fault is discretized into 283 triangular dislocation elements that approximate the nonplanar attributes of the fault surface. South of the city of Hayward, a steeply, east dipping fault geometry accommodates the divergence of the surface trace and the microseismicity at depth. The inferred slip rate distribution is consistent with a fault that creeps aseismically at a rate of ???5 mm/yr to a depth of 4-6 km. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data require an aseismic slip rate that approaches the geologic slip rate on the northernmost fault segment beneath Point Pinole, although the InSAR data might be complicated by a small dip-slip component at this location. A low slip rate patch of <1 mm/yr is inferred beneath San Leandro consistent with the source location of the 1868 earthquake. We calculate that the entire fault is accumulating a slip rate deficit equivalent to a Mw = 6.77 ?? 0.05 per century. However, this estimate of potential coseismic moment represents an upper bound because we do not know how much of the accumulated strain will be released through aseismic processes such as afterslip. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

From the seismic cycle to long-term deformation: linking seismic coupling and Quaternary coastal geomorphology along the Andean megathrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saillard, M.; Audin, L.; Rousset, B.; Avouac, J. P.; Chlieh, M.; Hall, S. R.; Husson, L.; Farber, D.

2017-12-01

Measurement of interseismic strain along subduction zones reveals the location of both locked asperities, which might rupture during megathrust earthquakes, and creeping zones, which tend to arrest such seismic ruptures. The heterogeneous pattern of interseismic coupling presumably relates to spatial variations of frictional properties along the subduction interface and may also show up in the fore-arc morphology. To investigate this hypothesis, we compiled information on the extent of earthquake ruptures for the last 500 yrs and uplift rates derived from dated marine terraces along the South American coastline from central Peru to southern Chile. We additionally calculated a new interseismic coupling model for that same area based on a compilation of GPS data. We show that the coastline geometry, characterized by the distance between the coast and the trench; the latitudinal variations of long-term uplift rates; and the spatial pattern of interseismic coupling are correlated. Zones of faster and long-term permanent coastal uplift, evidenced by uplifted marine terraces, coincide with peninsulas and also with areas of creep on the megathrust where slip is mostly aseismic and tend to arrest seismic ruptures. This correlation suggests that these areas prevent elastic strain buildup and inhibit lateral seismic rupture propagation. Correlation between the location of these regions across and along strike of convergence and the long-term morphology of the subduction margin suggests that the barrier effect might be due to rheology, namely rate-strengthening friction, although geometric effects might also play a secondary role. Higher shear stress along creeping segments of the megathrust than along segments dominated by recurring large earthquakes would favor more rapid viscoplastic (permanent) deformation of the fore arc and thus uplift. Marine terrace sequences attest to frictional properties along the megathrust persisting for million-year time scales. Peninsulas are

Natural regeneration on seismic lines influences movement behaviour of wolves and grizzly bears

PubMed Central

Pigeon, Karine E.; Cranston, Jerome; Hebblewhite, Mark; Musiani, Marco; Neufeld, Lalenia; Schmiegelow, Fiona; Duval, Julie; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

2018-01-01

Across the boreal forest of Canada, habitat disturbance is the ultimate cause of caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) declines. Habitat restoration is a focus of caribou recovery efforts, with a goal to finding ways to reduce predator use of disturbances, and caribou-predator encounters. One of the most pervasive disturbances within caribou ranges in Alberta, Canada are seismic lines cleared for energy exploration. Seismic lines facilitate predator movement, and although vegetation on some seismic lines is regenerating, it remains unknown whether vegetation regrowth is sufficient to alter predator response. We used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, and GPS locations, to understand how vegetation and other attributes of seismic lines influence movements of two predators, wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). During winter, wolves moved towards seismic lines regardless of vegetation height, while during spring wolves moved towards seismic lines with higher vegetation. During summer, wolves moved towards seismic lines with lower vegetation and also moved faster near seismic lines with vegetation <0.7 m. Seismic lines with lower vegetation height were preferred by grizzly bears during spring and summer, but there was no relationship between vegetation height and grizzly bear movement rates. These results suggest that wolves use seismic lines for travel during summer, but during winter wolf movements relative to seismic lines could be influenced by factors additional to movement efficiency; potentially enhanced access to areas frequented by ungulate prey. Grizzly bears may be using seismic lines for movement, but could also be using seismic lines as a source of vegetative food or ungulate prey. To reduce wolf movement rate, restoration could focus on seismic lines with vegetation <1 m in height. However our results revealed that seismic lines continue to influence wolf movement behaviour decades after they were built, and even at later stages of

Natural regeneration on seismic lines influences movement behaviour of wolves and grizzly bears.

PubMed

Finnegan, Laura; Pigeon, Karine E; Cranston, Jerome; Hebblewhite, Mark; Musiani, Marco; Neufeld, Lalenia; Schmiegelow, Fiona; Duval, Julie; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2018-01-01

Across the boreal forest of Canada, habitat disturbance is the ultimate cause of caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) declines. Habitat restoration is a focus of caribou recovery efforts, with a goal to finding ways to reduce predator use of disturbances, and caribou-predator encounters. One of the most pervasive disturbances within caribou ranges in Alberta, Canada are seismic lines cleared for energy exploration. Seismic lines facilitate predator movement, and although vegetation on some seismic lines is regenerating, it remains unknown whether vegetation regrowth is sufficient to alter predator response. We used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, and GPS locations, to understand how vegetation and other attributes of seismic lines influence movements of two predators, wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). During winter, wolves moved towards seismic lines regardless of vegetation height, while during spring wolves moved towards seismic lines with higher vegetation. During summer, wolves moved towards seismic lines with lower vegetation and also moved faster near seismic lines with vegetation <0.7 m. Seismic lines with lower vegetation height were preferred by grizzly bears during spring and summer, but there was no relationship between vegetation height and grizzly bear movement rates. These results suggest that wolves use seismic lines for travel during summer, but during winter wolf movements relative to seismic lines could be influenced by factors additional to movement efficiency; potentially enhanced access to areas frequented by ungulate prey. Grizzly bears may be using seismic lines for movement, but could also be using seismic lines as a source of vegetative food or ungulate prey. To reduce wolf movement rate, restoration could focus on seismic lines with vegetation <1 m in height. However our results revealed that seismic lines continue to influence wolf movement behaviour decades after they were built, and even at later stages of

Microstructure and Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical effects as an explanation for rate dependency during seismic slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanou, I.; Rattez, H.; Sulem, J.

2017-12-01

Rapid shear tests of granulated fault gouges show pronounced rate-dependency. For this reason rate-dependent constitutive laws are frequently used for describing fault friction.Here we propose a micromechanical, physics-based continuum approach by considering the characteristic size of the microstructure and the thermal- and pore-pressure-diffusion mechanisms that take place in the fault gouge during rapid shearing. It is shown that even for rate-independent materials, the apparent, macroscopic behavior of the system is rate-dependent. This is due to the competition of the characteristic lengths and time scales introduced indirectly by the microstructure and the thermal and hydraulic diffusivities.Both weakening and shear band thickness are rate dependent, despite the fact that the constitutive description of the material was considered rate-independent. Moreover the size of the microstructure, which here is identified with the grain size of the fault gouge (D50), plays an important role in the slope of the softening branch of the shear stress-strain response curve and consequently in the transition from aseismic to seismic slip.References Dieterich, J. H. (1979). Modeling of rock friction: 1. Experimental results and constitutive equations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 84(B5), 2161. http://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB05p02161 Scholz, C. H. (2002). The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting (Second). Cambridge. Sulem, J., & Stefanou, I. (2016). Thermal and chemical effects in shear and compaction bands. Geomechanics for Energy and the Environment, 6, 4-21. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gete.2015.12.004

Seismic Tomography and the Development of a State Velocity Profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, S. J.; Nakata, N.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes have been a growing concern in the State of Oklahoma in the last few years and as a result, accurate earthquake location is of utmost importance. This means using a high resolution velocity model with both lateral and vertical variations. Velocity data is determined using ambient noise seismic interferometry and tomography. Passive seismic data was acquired from multiple IRIS networks over the span of eight years (2009-2016) and filtered for earthquake removal to obtain the background ambient noise profile for the state. Seismic Interferometry is applied to simulate ray paths between stations, this is done with each possible station pair for highest resolution. Finally the method of seismic tomography is used to extract the velocity data and develop the state velocity map. The final velocity profile will be a compilation of different network analyses due to changing station availability from year to year. North-Central Oklahoma has a dense seismic network and has been operating for the past few years. The seismic stations are located here because this is the most seismically active region. Other parts of the state have not had consistent coverage from year to year, and as such a reliable and high resolution velocity profile cannot be determined from this network. However, the Transportable Array (TA) passed through Oklahoma in 2014 and provided a much wider and evenly spaced coverage. The goal of this study is to ultimately combine these two arrays over time, and provide a high quality velocity profile for the State of Oklahoma.

Europa's small impactor flux and seismic detection predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Daisuke; Teanby, Nicholas A.

2016-10-01

Europa is an attractive target for future lander missions due to its dynamic surface and potentially habitable sub-surface environment. Seismology has the potential to provide powerful new constraints on the internal structure using natural sources such as faults or meteorite impacts. Here we predict how many meteorite impacts are likely to be detected using a single seismic station on Europa to inform future mission planning efforts. To this end, we derive: (1) the current small impactor flux on Europa from Jupiter impact rate observations and models; (2) a crater diameter versus impactor energy scaling relation for icy moons by merging previous experiments and simulations; and (3) scaling relations for seismic signal amplitudes as a function of distance from the impact site for a given crater size, based on analogue explosive data obtained on Earth's ice sheets. Finally, seismic amplitudes are compared to predicted noise levels and seismometer performance to determine detection rates. We predict detection of 0.002-20 small local impacts per year based on P-waves travelling directly through the ice crust. Larger regional and global-scale impact events, detected through mantle-refracted waves, are predicted to be extremely rare (10-8-1 detections per year), so are unlikely to be detected by a short duration mission. Estimated ranges include uncertainties from internal seismic attenuation, impactor flux, and seismic amplitude scaling. Internal attenuation is the most significant unknown and produces extreme uncertainties in the mantle-refracted P-wave amplitudes. Our nominal best-guess attenuation model predicts 0.002-5 local direct P detections and 6 × 10-6-0.2 mantle-refracted detections per year. Given that a plausible Europa landed mission will only last around 30 days, we conclude that impacts should not be relied upon for a seismic exploration of Europa. For future seismic exploration, faulting due to stresses in the rigid outer ice shell is likely to be a

Large-N Seismic Deployment at the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, T.; Snelson, C. M.; Mellors, R. J.; Pitarka, A.

2015-12-01

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary project that consists of a series of chemical explosion experiments at the Nevada National Security Site. The goal of SPE is to understand the complicated effect of earth structures on source energy partitioning and seismic wave propagation, develop and validate physics-based monitoring, and ultimately better discriminate low-yield nuclear explosions from background seismicity. Deployment of a large number of seismic sensors is planned for SPE to image the full 3-D wavefield with about 500 three-component sensors and 500 vertical component sensors. This large-N seismic deployment will operate near the site of SPE-5 shot for about one month, recording the SPE-5 shot, ambient noise, and additional controlled-sources. This presentation focuses on the design of the large-N seismic deployment. We show how we optimized the sensor layout based on the geological structure and experiment goals with a limited number of sensors. In addition, we will also show some preliminary record sections from deployment. This work was conducted under Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25946 with the U.S. Department of Energy.

Seismic Noise Analysis and Reduction through Utilization of Collocated Seismic and Atmospheric Sensors at the GRO Chile Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, M. E.; Russo, R. M.

2013-12-01

The installation of Earthscope Transportable Array-style geophysical observatories in Chile expands open data seismic recording capabilities in the southern hemisphere by nearly 30%, and has nearly tripled the number of seismic stations providing freely-available data in southern South America. Through the use of collocated seismic and atmospheric sensors at these stations we are able to analyze how local atmospheric conditions generate seismic noise, which can degrade data in seismic frequency bands at stations in the ';roaring forties' (S latitudes). Seismic vaults that are climate-controlled and insulated from the local environment are now employed throughout the world in an attempt to isolate seismometers from as many noise sources as possible. However, this is an expensive solution that is neither practical nor possible for all seismic deployments; and also, the increasing number and scope of temporary seismic deployments has resulted in the collection and archiving of terabytes of seismic data that is affected to some degree by natural seismic noise sources such as wind and atmospheric pressure changes. Changing air pressure can result in a depression and subsequent rebound of Earth's surface - which generates low frequency noise in seismic frequency bands - and even moderate winds can apply enough force to ground-coupled structures or to the surface above the seismometers themselves, resulting in significant noise. The 10 stations of the permanent Geophysical Reporting Observatories (GRO Chile), jointly installed during 2011-12 by IRIS and the Chilean Servicio Sismológico, include instrumentation in addition to the standard three seismic components. These stations, spaced approximately 300 km apart along the length of the country, continuously record a variety of atmospheric data including infrasound, air pressure, wind speed, and wind direction. The collocated seismic and atmospheric sensors at each station allow us to analyze both datasets together, to

Stress Models of the Annual Hydrospheric, Atmospheric, Thermal, and Tidal Loading Cycles on California Faults: Perturbation of Background Stress and Changes in Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Christopher W.; Fu, Yuning; Bürgmann, Roland

2017-12-01

Stresses in the lithosphere arise from multiple natural loading sources that include both surface and body forces. The largest surface loads include near-surface water storage, snow and ice, atmosphere pressure, ocean loading, and temperature changes. The solid Earth also deforms from celestial body interactions and variations in Earth's rotation. We model the seasonal stress changes in California from 2006 through 2014 for seven different loading sources with annual periods to produce an aggregate stressing history for faults in the study area. Our modeling shows that the annual water loading, atmosphere, temperature, and Earth pole tides are the largest loading sources and should each be evaluated to fully describe seasonal stress changes. In California we find that the hydrological loads are the largest source of seasonal stresses. We explore the seasonal stresses with respect to the background principal stress orientation constrained with regional focal mechanisms and analyze the modulation of seismicity. Our results do not suggest a resolvable seasonal variation for the ambient stress orientation in the shallow crust. When projecting the seasonal stresses into the background stress orientation we find that the timing of microseismicity modestly increases from an 8 kPa seasonal mean-normal-stress perturbation. The results suggest that faults in California are optimally oriented with the background stress field and respond to subsurface pressure changes, possibly due to processes we have not considered in this study. At any time a population of faults are near failure as evident from earthquakes triggered by these slight seasonal stress perturbations.

Nanocrystalline mirror-slip surfaces in calcite gouge sheared at sub-seismic slip rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verberne, B. A.; Plümper, O.; de Winter, D.; Niemeijer, A. R.; Spiers, C. J.

2013-12-01

If seismic-aseismic transitions in fault rocks are to be recognized from microstructures preserved in natural fault rocks, an understanding of the microphysical mechanisms that produce such microstructures is needed. We report on microstructures recovered from dry direct shear experiments on (simulated) dry calcite gouge, performed at 50 MPa normal stress, 18-150°C and low sliding velocities (0.1-10 μm/s). The mechanical data show a transition from velocity strengthening below ~80°C to velocity weakening slip at higher temperatures. We investigated both loose gouge fragments and thin sections, characterizing the microstructures at the mm- to nm-scales. All deformed samples split along a shear band fabric defined by mainly R1- and boundary shears. Viewed normal to the shear plane, these bands commonly showed shiny, elongate patches aligned, and striated, parallel to the shear direction. These patches were especially common in samples tested below 80°C, though shear band splitting was less well-developed above 80°C so that even if the shiny patches formed at higher temperature they were less frequently exposed. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) applied to shiny patches formed in samples sheared at room temperature showed the presence of elongate, streaked out sub-micron-sized particles oriented parallel to the shear direction. Transmitted light optical microscopy of thin sections cut normal to the shear plane and parallel to the shear direction, combined with Focused Ion Beam (FIB) - SEM on loose gouge fragments, showed that the shiny surfaces correspond with shear bands characterized by extreme grain size reduction and sintered sub-micron-particles. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) further revealed that the cores of the shear bands consist of nanocrystallites some 20 nm in size, with a Crystallographic Preferred Orientation (CPO). Our results demonstrate that mirror-like nanocrystalline slip zones can form in calcite gouge sheared at shallow crustal

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Seismic Data, January to December 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakata, Jennifer S.; Okubo, Paul G.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during the year. The seismic summary is offered without interpretation as a source of preliminary data and is complete in that most data for events of M=1.5 are included. All latitude and longitude references in this report are stated in Old Hawaiian Datum. The HVO summaries have been published in various forms since 1956. Summaries prior to 1974 were issued quarterly, but cost, convenience of preparation and distribution, and the large quantities of data necessitated an annual publication, beginning with Summary 74 for the year 1974. Beginning in 2004, summaries are simply identified by the year, rather than by summary number. Summaries originally issued as administrative reports were republished in 2007 as Open-File Reports. All the summaries since 1956 are listed at http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/ (last accessed September 30, 2008). In January 1986, HVO adopted CUSP (California Institute of Technology USGS Seismic Processing). Summary 86 includes a description of the seismic instrumentation, calibration, and processing used in recent years. The present summary includes background information about the seismic network to provide the end user an understanding of the processing parameters and how the data were gathered. A report by Klein and Koyanagi (1980) tabulates instrumentation, calibration, and recording history of each seismic station in the network. It is designed as a reference for users of seismograms and phase data and includes and augments the information in the station table in this summary.

Oklahoma's induced seismicity strongly linked to wastewater injection depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Gernon, Thomas

2018-03-01

The sharp rise in Oklahoma seismicity since 2009 is due to wastewater injection. The role of injection depth is an open, complex issue, yet critical for hazard assessment and regulation. We developed an advanced Bayesian network to model joint conditional dependencies between spatial, operational, and seismicity parameters. We found that injection depth relative to crystalline basement most strongly correlates with seismic moment release. The joint effects of depth and volume are critical, as injection rate becomes more influential near the basement interface. Restricting injection depths to 200 to 500 meters above basement could reduce annual seismic moment release by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8. Our approach enables identification of subregions where targeted regulation may mitigate effects of induced earthquakes, aiding operators and regulators in wastewater disposal regions.

New approach to detect seismic surface waves in 1Hz-sampled GPS time series

PubMed Central

Houlié, N.; Occhipinti, G.; Blanchard, T.; Shapiro, N.; Lognonné, P.; Murakami, M.

2011-01-01

Recently, co-seismic seismic source characterization based on GPS measurements has been completed in near- and far-field with remarkable results. However, the accuracy of the ground displacement measurement inferred from GPS phase residuals is still depending of the distribution of satellites in the sky. We test here a method, based on the double difference (DD) computations of Line of Sight (LOS), that allows detecting 3D co-seismic ground shaking. The DD method is a quasi-analytically free of most of intrinsic errors affecting GPS measurements. The seismic waves presented in this study produced DD amplitudes 4 and 7 times stronger than the background noise. The method is benchmarked using the GEONET GPS stations recording the Hokkaido Earthquake (2003 September 25th, Mw = 8.3). PMID:22355563

Applying Binary Forecasting Approaches to Induced Seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahue, R.; Shcherbakov, R.

2016-12-01

The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin has been chosen as a focus due to an increase in the recent observed seismicity there which is most likely linked to anthropogenic activities related to unconventional oil and gas exploration. Seismicity caused by these types of activities is called induced seismicity. The occurrence of moderate to larger induced earthquakes in areas where critical infrastructure is present can be potentially problematic. Here we use a binary forecast method to analyze past seismicity and well production data in order to quantify future areas of increased seismicity. This method splits the given region into spatial cells. The binary forecast method used here has been suggested in the past to retroactively forecast large earthquakes occurring globally in areas called alarm cells. An alarm cell, or alert zone, is a bin in which there is a higher likelihood for earthquakes to occur based on previous data. The first method utilizes the cumulative Benioff strain, based on earthquakes that had occurred in each bin above a given magnitude over a time interval called the training period. The second method utilizes the cumulative well production data within each bin. Earthquakes that occurred within an alert zone in the retrospective forecast period contribute to the hit rate, while alert zones that did not have an earthquake occur within them in the forecast period contribute to the false alarm rate. In the resulting analysis the hit rate and false alarm rate are determined after optimizing and modifying the initial parameters using the receiver operating characteristic diagram. It is found that when modifying the cell size and threshold magnitude parameters within various training periods, hit and false alarm rates are obtained for specific regions in Western Canada using both recent seismicity and cumulative well production data. Certain areas are thus shown to be more prone to potential larger earthquakes based on both datasets. This has implications

Detailed imaging of the 2007 Pisco co-seismic and post-seismic deformation - implications on the seismogenic behavior of subduction megathrusts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perfettini, H.; Sladen, A.; Avouac, J.; Simons, M.; Nocquet, J.; Bondoux, F.; Kositsky, A.; Chlieh, M.; Tavera, H.; Audin, L.; Konca, A.; Fielding, E. J.; Farber, D.; Ortega, F. H.

2009-12-01

aseismic frictional afterslip on two other adjacent patches. The most prominent of those post-seismic patches coincides with the subducting Nazca ridge, an area also characterized by a locally low interseismic coupling and which seems to have acted as a barrier to seismic rupture propagation repeatedly in the past. The ’seismogenic’ portion of the megathrust thus appears to be paved with interfingering of rate-weakening and rate-strengthening patches. The rate-strengthening patches are shown to contribute to an unsuspectedly high proportion of aseismic slip and to determine the extent and frequency of large interplate earthquakes. Aseismic slip accounts for as much as 50-70% of the slip budget on the seismogenic portion of the megathrust of central Peru and the return period of Mw 8.0 earthquakes in the Pisco area is estimated to 250 years.

Post-processing of seismic parameter data based on valid seismic event determination

DOEpatents

McEvilly, Thomas V.

1985-01-01

An automated seismic processing system and method are disclosed, including an array of CMOS microprocessors for unattended battery-powered processing of a multi-station network. According to a characterizing feature of the invention, each channel of the network is independently operable to automatically detect, measure times and amplitudes, and compute and fit Fast Fourier transforms (FFT's) for both P- and S- waves on analog seismic data after it has been sampled at a given rate. The measured parameter data from each channel are then reviewed for event validity by a central controlling microprocessor and if determined by preset criteria to constitute a valid event, the parameter data are passed to an analysis computer for calculation of hypocenter location, running b-values, source parameters, event count, P- wave polarities, moment-tensor inversion, and Vp/Vs ratios. The in-field real-time analysis of data maximizes the efficiency of microearthquake surveys allowing flexibility in experimental procedures, with a minimum of traditional labor-intensive postprocessing. A unique consequence of the system is that none of the original data (i.e., the sensor analog output signals) are necessarily saved after computation, but rather, the numerical parameters generated by the automatic analysis are the sole output of the automated seismic processor.

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap.

PubMed

Géli, L; Henry, P; Grall, C; Tary, J-B; Lomax, A; Batsi, E; Riboulot, V; Cros, E; Gürbüz, C; Işık, S E; Sengör, A M C; Le Pichon, X; Ruffine, L; Dupré, S; Thomas, Y; Kalafat, D; Bayrakci, G; Coutellier, Q; Regnier, T; Westbrook, G; Saritas, H; Çifçi, G; Çağatay, M N; Özeren, M S; Görür, N; Tryon, M; Bohnhoff, M; Gasperini, L; Klingelhoefer, F; Scalabrin, C; Augustin, J-M; Embriaco, D; Marinaro, G; Frugoni, F; Monna, S; Etiope, G; Favali, P; Bécel, A

2018-05-01

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the "Istanbul seismic gap") has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25 th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5-5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain.

Real-time capture of seismic waves using high-rate multi-GNSS observations: Application to the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Tao; Xie, Xin; Fang, Rongxin; Su, Xing; Zhao, Qile; Liu, Gang; Li, Heng; Shi, Chuang; Liu, Jingnan

2016-01-01

The variometric approach is investigated to measure real-time seismic waves induced by the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake with high-rate multi-GNSS observations, especially with the contribution of newly available BDS. The velocity estimation using GPS + BDS shows an additional improvement of around 20% with respect to GPS-only solutions. We also reconstruct displacements by integrating GNSS-derived velocities after a linear trend removal (IGV). The displacement waveforms with accuracy of better than 5 cm are derived when postprocessed GPS precise point positioning results are used as ground truth, even if those stations have strong ground motions and static offsets of up to 1-2 m. GNSS-derived velocity and displacement waveforms with the variometric approach are in good agreement with results from strong motion data. We therefore conclude that it is feasible to capture real-time seismic waves with multi-GNSS observations using the IGV-enhanced variometric approach, which has critical implications for earthquake early warning, tsunami forecasting, and rapid hazard assessment.

Seismic Catalogue and Seismic Network in Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belizaire, D.; Benito, B.; Carreño, E.; Meneses, C.; Huerfano, V.; Polanco, E.; McCormack, D.

2013-05-01

The destructive earthquake occurred on January 10, 2010 in Haiti, highlighted the lack of preparedness of the country to address seismic phenomena. At the moment of the earthquake, there was no seismic network operating in the country, and only a partial control of the past seismicity was possible, due to the absence of a national catalogue. After the 2010 earthquake, some advances began towards the installation of a national network and the elaboration of a seismic catalogue providing the necessary input for seismic Hazard Studies. This paper presents the state of the works carried out covering both aspects. First, a seismic catalogue has been built, compiling data of historical and instrumental events occurred in the Hispaniola Island and surroundings, in the frame of the SISMO-HAITI project, supported by the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) and Developed in cooperation with the Observatoire National de l'Environnement et de la Vulnérabilité of Haiti (ONEV). Data from different agencies all over the world were gathered, being relevant the role of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico seismological services which provides local data of their national networks. Almost 30000 events recorded in the area from 1551 till 2011 were compiled in a first catalogue, among them 7700 events with Mw ranges between 4.0 and 8.3. Since different magnitude scale were given by the different agencies (Ms, mb, MD, ML), this first catalogue was affected by important heterogeneity in the size parameter. Then it was homogenized to moment magnitude Mw using the empirical equations developed by Bonzoni et al (2011) for the eastern Caribbean. At present, this is the most exhaustive catalogue of the country, although it is difficult to assess its degree of completeness. Regarding the seismic network, 3 stations were installed just after the 2010 earthquake by the Canadian Government. The data were sent by telemetry thought the Canadian System CARINA. In 2012, the Spanish IGN together

Recent developments in seismic seabed oil reservoir monitoring applications using fibre-optic sensing networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Freitas, J. M.

2011-05-01

This review looks at recent developments in seismic seabed oil reservoir monitoring techniques using fibre-optic sensing networks. After a brief introduction covering the background and scope of the review, the following section focuses on state-of-the-art fibre-optic hydrophones and accelerometers used for seismic applications. Related metrology aspects of the sensor such as measurement of sensitivity, noise and cross-axis performance are addressed. The third section focuses on interrogation systems. Two main phase-based competing systems have emerged over the past two decades for seismic applications, with a third technique showing much promise; these have been compared in terms of general performance.

Seismic noise level variation in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheen, D.; Shin, J.

2008-12-01

The variations of seismic background noise in South Korea have been investigated by means of power spectral analysis. The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) and the Korea Meteorological Administation (KMA) have national wide seismic networks in South Korea, and, in the end of 2007, there are 30 broadband stations which have been operating for more than a year. In this study, we have estimated the power spectral density of seismic noise for 30 broadband stations from 2005 to 2007. Since we estimate PSDs from a large dataset of continuous waveform in this study, a robust PSD estimate of McNamara and Buland (2004) is used. In the frequency range 1-5 Hz, the diurnal variations of noise are observed at most of stations, which are especially larger at coastal stations and at insular than at inland. Some stations shows daily difference of diurnal variations, which represents that cultural activities contribute to the noise level of a station. The variation of number of triggered stations, however, shows that cultural noise has little influence on the detection capability of seismic network in South Korea. Seasonal variations are observed well in the range 0.1-0.5 Hz, while much less found in the frequency range 1-5 Hz. We observed that strong peaks in the range 0.1-0.5 Hz occur at the summer when Pacific typhoons are close to the Korean Peninsula.

Seismic signal and noise on Europa and how to use it

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panning, M. P.; Stähler, S. C.; Bills, B. G.; Castillo, J.; Huang, H. H.; Husker, A. L.; Kedar, S.; Lorenz, R. D.; Pike, W. T.; Schmerr, N. C.; Tsai, V. C.; Vance, S.

2017-12-01

Seismology is one of our best tools for detailing interior structure of planetary bodies, and a seismometer is included in the baseline and threshold mission design for a potential Europa lander mission. Guiding mission design and planning for adequate science return, though, requires modeling of both the anticipated signal and noise. Assuming ice seismicity on Europa behaves according to statistical properties observed in Earth catalogs and scaling cumulative seismic moment release to the moon, we simulate long seismic records and estimate background noise and peak signal amplitudes (Panning et al., 2017). This suggests a sensitive instrument comparable to many broadband terrestrial instruments or the SP instrument from the InSight mission to Mars will be able to record signals, while high frequency geophones are likely inadequate. We extend this analysis to also begin incorporation of spatial and temporal variation due to the tidal cycle, which can help inform landing site selection. We also begin exploration of how chaotic terrane at the bottom of the ice shell and inter-ice heterogeneities (i.e. internal melt structures) may affect predicted seismic observations using 2D numerical seismic simulations. We also show some of the key seismic observations to determine interior properties of Europa (Stähler et al., 2017). M. P. Panning, S. C. Stähler, H.-H. Huang, S. D. Vance, S. Kedar, V. C. Tsai, W. T. Pike, R. D. Lorenz, "Expected seismicity and the seismic noise environment of Europa," J. Geophys. Res., in revision, 2017. S. C. Stähler, M. P. Panning, S. D. Vance, R. D. Lorenz, M. van Driel, T. Nissen-Meyer, S. Kedar, "Seismic wave propagation in icy ocean worlds," J. Geophys. Res., in revision, 2017.

Friction falls towards zero in quartz rock as slip velocity approaches seismic rates.

PubMed

Di Toro, Giulio; Goldsby, David L; Tullis, Terry E

2004-01-29

An important unsolved problem in earthquake mechanics is to determine the resistance to slip on faults in the Earth's crust during earthquakes. Knowledge of coseismic slip resistance is critical for understanding the magnitude of shear-stress reduction and hence the near-fault acceleration that can occur during earthquakes, which affects the amount of damage that earthquakes are capable of causing. In particular, a long-unresolved problem is the apparently low strength of major faults, which may be caused by low coseismic frictional resistance. The frictional properties of rocks at slip velocities up to 3 mm s(-1) and for slip displacements characteristic of large earthquakes have been recently simulated under laboratory conditions. Here we report data on quartz rocks that indicate an extraordinary progressive decrease in frictional resistance with increasing slip velocity above 1 mm s(-1). This reduction extrapolates to zero friction at seismic slip rates of approximately 1 m s(-1), and appears to be due to the formation of a thin layer of silica gel on the fault surface: it may explain the low strength of major faults during earthquakes.

Volcanic plume height measured by seismic waves based on a mechanical model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prejean, Stephanie G.; Brodsky, Emily E.

2011-01-01

In August 2008 an unmonitored, largely unstudied Aleutian volcano, Kasatochi, erupted catastrophically. Here we use seismic data to infer the height of large eruptive columns such as those of Kasatochi based on a combination of existing fluid and solid mechanical models. In so doing, we propose a connection between a common, observable, short-period seismic wave amplitude to the physics of an eruptive column. To construct a combined model, we estimate the mass ejection rate of material from the vent on the basis of the plume height, assuming that the height is controlled by thermal buoyancy for a continuous plume. Using the estimated mass ejection rate, we then derive the equivalent vertical force on the Earth through a momentum balance. Finally, we calculate the far-field surface waves resulting from the vertical force. The model performs well for recent eruptions of Kasatochi and Augustine volcanoes if v, the velocity of material exiting the vent, is 120-230 m s-1. The consistency between the seismically inferred and measured plume heights indicates that in these cases the far-field ~1 s seismic energy radiated by fluctuating flow in the volcanic jet during the eruption is a useful indicator of overall mass ejection rates. Thus, use of the model holds promise for characterizing eruptions and evaluating ash hazards to aircraft in real time on the basis of far-field short-period seismic data. This study emphasizes the need for better measurements of eruptive plume heights and a more detailed understanding of the full spectrum of seismic energy radiated coeruptively.

Tools for educational access to seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taber, J. J.; Welti, R.; Bravo, T. K.; Hubenthal, M.; Frechette, K.

2017-12-01

Student engagement can be increased both by providing easy access to real data, and by addressing newsworthy events such as recent large earthquakes. IRIS EPO has a suite of access and visualization tools that can be used for such engagement, including a set of three tools that allow students to explore global seismicity, use seismic data to determine Earth structure, and view and analyze near-real-time ground motion data in the classroom. These tools are linked to online lessons that are designed for use in middle school through introductory undergraduate classes. The IRIS Earthquake Browser allows discovery of key aspects of plate tectonics, earthquake locations (in pseudo 3D) and seismicity rates and patterns. IEB quickly displays up to 20,000 seismic events over up to 30 years, making it one of the most responsive, practical ways to visualize historical seismicity in a browser. Maps are bookmarkable and preserve state, meaning IEB map links can be shared or worked into a lesson plan. The Global Seismogram Plotter automatically creates visually clear seismic record sections from selected large earthquakes that are tablet-friendly and can also to be printed for use in a classroom without computers. The plots are designed to be appropriate for use with no parameters to set, but users can also modify the plots, such as including a recording station near a chosen location. A guided exercise is provided where students use the record section to discover the diameter of Earth's outer core. Students can pick and compare phase arrival times onscreen which is key to performing the exercise. A companion station map shows station locations and further information and is linked to the record section. jAmaSeis displays seismic data in real-time from either a local instrument and/or from remote seismic stations that stream data using standard seismic data protocols, and can be used in the classroom or as a public display. Users can filter data, fit a seismogram to travel time

Real-Time Seismic Data from the Bottom Sea

PubMed Central

Roset, Xavier; Trullols, Enric; Artero-Delgado, Carola; Prat, Joana; Massana, Immaculada; Carbonell, Montserrat; Barco de la Torre, Jaime; Toma, Daniel Mihai

2018-01-01

An anchored marine seismometer, acquiring real-time seismic data, has been built and tested. The system consists of an underwater seismometer, a surface buoy, and a mooring line that connects them. Inductive communication through the mooring line provides an inexpensive, reliable, and flexible solution. Prior to the deployment the dynamics of the system have been simulated numerically in order to find optimal materials, cables, buoys, and connections under critical marine conditions. The seismometer used is a high sensitivity triaxial broadband geophone able to measure low vibrational signals produced by the underwater seismic events. The power to operate the surface buoy is provided by solar panels. Additional batteries are needed for the underwater unit. In this paper we also present the first results and an earthquake detection of a prototype system that demonstrates the feasibility of this concept. The seismometer transmits continuous data at a rate of 1000 bps to a controller equipped with a radio link in the surface buoy. A GPS receiver on the surface buoy has been configured to perform accurate timestamps on the seismic data, which makes it possible to integrate the seismic data from these marine seismometers into the existing seismic network. PMID:29642479

Intelligent seismic risk mitigation system on structure building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryanita, R.; Maizir, H.; Yuniorto, E.; Jingga, H.

2018-01-01

Indonesia located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the highest-risk seismic zone in the world. The strong ground motion might cause catastrophic collapse of the building which leads to casualties and property damages. Therefore, it is imperative to properly design the structural response of building against seismic hazard. Seismic-resistant building design process requires structural analysis to be performed to obtain the necessary building responses. However, the structural analysis could be very difficult and time consuming. This study aims to predict the structural response includes displacement, velocity, and acceleration of multi-storey building with the fixed floor plan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on the 2010 Indonesian seismic hazard map. By varying the building height, soil condition, and seismic location in 47 cities in Indonesia, 6345 data sets were obtained and fed into the ANN model for the learning process. The trained ANN can predict the displacement, velocity, and acceleration responses with up to 96% of predicted rate. The trained ANN architecture and weight factors were later used to build a simple tool in Visual Basic program which possesses the features for prediction of structural response as mentioned previously.

Real-Time Seismic Data from the Bottom Sea.

PubMed

Roset, Xavier; Trullols, Enric; Artero-Delgado, Carola; Prat, Joana; Del Río, Joaquin; Massana, Immaculada; Carbonell, Montserrat; Barco de la Torre, Jaime; Toma, Daniel Mihai

2018-04-08

An anchored marine seismometer, acquiring real-time seismic data, has been built and tested. The system consists of an underwater seismometer, a surface buoy, and a mooring line that connects them. Inductive communication through the mooring line provides an inexpensive, reliable, and flexible solution. Prior to the deployment the dynamics of the system have been simulated numerically in order to find optimal materials, cables, buoys, and connections under critical marine conditions. The seismometer used is a high sensitivity triaxial broadband geophone able to measure low vibrational signals produced by the underwater seismic events. The power to operate the surface buoy is provided by solar panels. Additional batteries are needed for the underwater unit. In this paper we also present the first results and an earthquake detection of a prototype system that demonstrates the feasibility of this concept. The seismometer transmits continuous data at a rate of 1000 bps to a controller equipped with a radio link in the surface buoy. A GPS receiver on the surface buoy has been configured to perform accurate timestamps on the seismic data, which makes it possible to integrate the seismic data from these marine seismometers into the existing seismic network.

Seismic gradiometry using ambient seismic noise in an anisotropic Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ridder, S. A. L.; Curtis, A.

2017-05-01

We introduce a wavefield gradiometry technique to estimate both isotropic and anisotropic local medium characteristics from short recordings of seismic signals by inverting a wave equation. The method exploits the information in the spatial gradients of a seismic wavefield that are calculated using dense deployments of seismic arrays. The application of the method uses the surface wave energy in the ambient seismic field. To estimate isotropic and anisotropic medium properties we invert an elliptically anisotropic wave equation. The spatial derivatives of the recorded wavefield are evaluated by calculating finite differences over nearby recordings, which introduces a systematic anisotropic error. A two-step approach corrects this error: finite difference stencils are first calibrated, then the output of the wave-equation inversion is corrected using the linearized impulse response to the inverted velocity anomaly. We test the procedure on ambient seismic noise recorded in a large and dense ocean bottom cable array installed over Ekofisk field. The estimated azimuthal anisotropy forms a circular geometry around the production-induced subsidence bowl. This conforms with results from studies employing controlled sources, and with interferometry correlating long records of seismic noise. Yet in this example, the results were obtained using only a few minutes of ambient seismic noise.

Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

2007-05-01

Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

High repetition rate laser-driven MeV ion acceleration at variable background pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, Joseph; Ngirmang, Gregory; Orban, Chris; Feister, Scott; Morrison, John; Frische, Kyle; Chowdhury, Enam; Roquemore, W. M.

2017-10-01

Ultra-intense laser-plasma interactions (LPI) can produce highly energetic photons, electrons, and ions with numerous potential real-world applications. Many of these applications will require repeatable, high repetition targets that are suitable for LPI experiments. Liquid targets can meet many of these needs, but they typically require higher chamber pressure than is used for many low repetition rate experiments. The effect of background pressure on the LPI has not been thoroughly studied. With this in mind, the Extreme Light group at the Air Force Research Lab has carried out MeV ion and electron acceleration experiments at kHz repetition rate with background pressures ranging from 30 mTorr to >1 Torr using a submicron ethylene glycol liquid sheet target. We present these results and provide two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulation results that offer insight on the thresholds for the efficient acceleration of electrons and ions. This research is supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under LRIR Project 17RQCOR504 under the management of Dr. Riq Parra and Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier. Support was also provided by the DOD HPCMP Internship Program.

Assessing a 3D smoothed seismicity model of induced earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechar, Jeremy; Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Wiemer, Stefan

2016-04-01

As more energy exploration and extraction efforts cause earthquakes, it becomes increasingly important to control induced seismicity. Risk management schemes must be improved and should ultimately be based on near-real-time forecasting systems. With this goal in mind, we propose a test bench to evaluate models of induced seismicity based on metrics developed by the CSEP community. To illustrate the test bench, we consider a model based on the so-called seismogenic index and a rate decay; to produce three-dimensional forecasts, we smooth past earthquakes in space and time. We explore four variants of this model using the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 datasets to make short-term forecasts, test their consistency, and rank the model variants. Our results suggest that such a smoothed seismicity model is useful for forecasting induced seismicity within three days, and giving more weight to recent events improves forecast performance. Moreover, the location of the largest induced earthquake is forecast well by this model. Despite the good spatial performance, the model does not estimate the seismicity rate well: it frequently overestimates during stimulation and during the early post-stimulation period, and it systematically underestimates around shut-in. In this presentation, we also describe a robust estimate of information gain, a modification that can also benefit forecast experiments involving tectonic earthquakes.

A Reappraisal of Seismicity and Eruptions of Pantelleria Island and the Sicily Channel (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spampinato, Salvatore; Ursino, Andrea; Barbano, Maria Serafina; Pirrotta, Claudia; Rapisarda, Salvatore; Larocca, Graziano; Platania, Pier Raffaele

2017-07-01

Three main tectonic depressions (the Pantelleria, Linosa and Malta troughs), the expression of a continental rift, characterize the Sicily Channel, a region with recent volcanic activity attested by the Pantelleria and Linosa volcanic islands, as well as numerous seamounts. To understand the seismic and eruptive behaviour of this area, we compare historical and instrumental seismicity retrieved from catalogues with recordings from both a mobile seismic network and a permanent station deployed at Pantelleria. A review of historical eruptions affecting the Sicily Channel is also presented. Recent instrumental seismicity shows that the Sicily Channel is characterized by a low level of seismicity, with earthquakes mainly occurring as isolated events, rather than swarms as observed during the few documented eruptive periods. The results of a seismic survey in 2006-2007, as well as the signals recorded by a permanent station in 2010-2014, enable stating that also Pantelleria is characterized by a very low rate of seismicity. The available, though scant, historical information suggests a recurrence time of about a century for the volcanic activity and that eruptions are usually preceded by seismic swarms. In the only historical known eruption of Pantelleria, in addition to shocks, uplifting and increasing fumarole activity, were observed. Notwithstanding the lack of eruptions over the past century, and despite the low recent seismic rate, we believe that the geophysical monitoring of the Sicily Channel needs improving since it is an area of potentially high seismic and volcanic hazard given the presence of several active submarine eruptive centres.

Exploring the Differences Between the European (SHARE) and the Reference Italian Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visini, F.; Meletti, C.; D'Amico, V.; Rovida, A.; Stucchi, M.

2014-12-01

The recent release of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model for Europe by the SHARE project (Giardini et al., 2013, www.share-eu.org) arises questions about the comparison between its results for Italy and the official Italian seismic hazard model (MPS04; Stucchi et al., 2011) adopted by the building code. The goal of such a comparison is identifying the main input elements that produce the differences between the two models. It is worthwhile to remark that each PSHA is realized with data and knowledge available at the time of the release. Therefore, even if a new model provides estimates significantly different from the previous ones that does not mean that old models are wrong, but probably that the current knowledge is strongly changed and improved. Looking at the hazard maps with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (adopted as the standard input in the Italian building code), the SHARE model shows increased expected values with respect to the MPS04 model, up to 70% for PGA. However, looking in detail at all output parameters of both the models, we observe a different behaviour for other spectral accelerations. In fact, for spectral periods greater than 0.3 s, the current reference PSHA for Italy proposes higher values than the SHARE model for many and large areas. This observation suggests that this behaviour could not be due to a different definition of seismic sources and relevant seismicity rates; it mainly seems the result of the adoption of recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that estimate higher values for PGA and for accelerations with periods lower than 0.3 s and lower values for higher periods with respect to old GMPEs. Another important set of tests consisted in analysing separately the PSHA results obtained by the three source models adopted in SHARE (i.e., area sources, fault sources with background, and a refined smoothed seismicity model), whereas MPS04 only uses area sources. Results seem to confirm the

Impact of magnitude uncertainties on seismic catalogue properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leptokaropoulos, K. M.; Adamaki, A. K.; Roberts, R. G.; Gkarlaouni, C. G.; Paradisopoulou, P. M.

2018-05-01

Catalogue-based studies are of central importance in seismological research, to investigate the temporal, spatial and size distribution of earthquakes in specified study areas. Methods for estimating the fundamental catalogue parameters like the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b-value and the completeness magnitude (Mc) are well established and routinely applied. However, the magnitudes reported in seismicity catalogues contain measurement uncertainties which may significantly distort the estimation of the derived parameters. In this study, we use numerical simulations of synthetic data sets to assess the reliability of different methods for determining b-value and Mc, assuming the G-R law validity. After contaminating the synthetic catalogues with Gaussian noise (with selected standard deviations), the analysis is performed for numerous data sets of different sample size (N). The noise introduced to the data generally leads to a systematic overestimation of magnitudes close to and above Mc. This fact causes an increase of the average number of events above Mc, which in turn leads to an apparent decrease of the b-value. This may result to a significant overestimation of seismicity rate even well above the actual completeness level. The b-value can in general be reliably estimated even for relatively small data sets (N < 1000) when only magnitudes higher than the actual completeness level are used. Nevertheless, a correction of the total number of events belonging in each magnitude class (i.e. 0.1 unit) should be considered, to deal with the magnitude uncertainty effect. Because magnitude uncertainties (here with the form of Gaussian noise) are inevitable in all instrumental catalogues, this finding is fundamental for seismicity rate and seismic hazard assessment analyses. Also important is that for some data analyses significant bias cannot necessarily be avoided by choosing a high Mc value for analysis. In such cases, there may be a risk of severe miscalculation of

Long seismic activity in the Porto dos Gaúchos Seismic Zone(PGSZ) - Amazon Craton Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, L. V.; Bowen, B. M. D.; Schmidt, K.

2017-12-01

deformation rate in the area and confirmation of the epicenter of the ST earthquake. On the other hand, when dealing with intraplate seismicity, what is valid for the NMZS (the base of the studies of the authors) may not be valid for other important seismic zones like the PGSZ. In this work, we will discuss thisissue.

Seismic Methods

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Seismic methods are the most commonly conducted geophysical surveys for engineering investigations. Seismic refraction provides engineers and geologists with the most basic of geologic data via simple procedures with common equipment.

Subduction zone locking, strain partitioning, intraplate deformation and their implications to Seismic Hazards in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galgana, G. A.; Mahdyiar, M.; Shen-Tu, B.; Pontbriand, C. W.; Klein, E.; Wang, F.; Shabestari, K.; Yang, W.

2014-12-01

We analyze active crustal deformation in South America (SA) using published GPS observations and historic seismicity along the Nazca Trench and the active Ecuador-Colombia-Venezuela Plate boundary Zone. GPS-constrained kinematisc models that incorporate block and continuum techniques are used to assess patterns of regional tectonic deformation and its implications to seismic potential. We determine interplate coupling distributions, fault slip-rates, and intraplate crustal strain rates in combination with historic earthquakes within 40 seismic zones crust to provide moment rate constraints. Along the Nazca subduction zone, we resolve a series of highly coupled patches, interpreted as high-friction producing "asperities" beneath the coasts of Ecuador, Peru and Chile. These include areas responsible for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake and the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Predicted tectonic block motions and fault slip rates reveal that the northern part of South America deforms rapidly, with crustal fault slip rates as much as ~20 mm/a. Fault slip and locking patterns reveal that the Oca Ancón-Pilar-Boconó fault system plays a key role in absorbing most of the complex eastward and southward convergence patterns in northeastern Colombia and Venezuela, while the near-parallel system of faults in eastern Colombia and Ecuador absorb part of the transpressional motion due to the ~55 mm/a Nazca-SA plate convergence. These kinematic models, in combination with historic seismicity rates, provide moment deficit rates that reveal regions with high seismic potential, such as coastal Ecuador, Bucaramanga, Arica and Antofagasta. We eventually use the combined information from moment rates and fault coupling patterns to further constrain stochastic seismic hazard models of the region by implementing realistic trench rupture scenarios (see Mahdyiar et al., this volume).

The Central and Eastern U.S. Seismic Network: Legacy of USArray

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eakins, J. A.; Astiz, L.; Benz, H.; Busby, R. W.; Hafner, K.; Reyes, J. C.; Sharer, G.; Vernon, F.; Woodward, R.

2014-12-01

As the USArray Transportable Array entered the central and eastern United States, several Federal agencies (National Science Foundation, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Department of Energy) recognized the unique opportunity to retain TA stations beyond the original timeline. The mission of the CEUSN is to produce data that enables researchers and Federal agencies alike to better understand the basic geologic questions, background earthquake rates and distribution, seismic hazard potential, and associated societal risks of this region. The selected long-term sub-array from Transportable Array (TA) stations includes nearly 200 sites, complemented by 100 broadband stations from the existing regional seismic networks to form the Central and Eastern United States Network (CEUSN). Multiple criteria for site selection were weighed by an inter-agency TA Station Selection (TASS) Working Group: seismic noise characteristics, data availability in real time, proximity to nuclear power plants, and homogeneous distribution throughout the region. The Array Network Facility (ANF) started collecting data for CEUSN network stations since late 2013, with all stations collected since May 2014. Regional seismic data streams are collected in real-time from the IRIS Data Management Center (DMC). TA stations selected to be part of CEUSN, retain the broadband sensor to which a 100 sps channel is added, the infrasound and environmental channels, and, at some stations, accelerometers are deployed. The upgraded sites become part of the N4 network for which ANF provides metadata and can issue remote commands to the station equipment. Stations still operated by TA, but planned for CEUSN, are included in the virtual network so all stations are currently available now. By the end of 2015, the remaining TA stations will be upgraded. Data quality control procedures developed for TA stations at ANF and at the DMC are currently performed on N4 data. However

A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2001-01-01

A review of the scientific issues relevant to characterizing earthquake sources in the New Madrid seismic zone has led to the development of a logic tree of possible alternative parameters. A variability analysis, using Monte Carlo sampling of this consensus logic tree, is presented and discussed. The analysis shows that for 2%-exceedence-in-50-year hazard, the best-estimate seismic hazard map is similar to previously published seismic hazard maps for the area. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s (0.2 and 1.0 s Sa), the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the knowledge-based uncertainty in seismic hazard can exceed 0.6 over the New Madrid seismic zone and diminishes to about 0.1 away from areas of seismic activity. Sensitivity analyses show that the largest contributor to PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 s Sa seismic hazard variability is the uncertainty in the location of future 1811-1812 New Madrid sized earthquakes. This is followed by the variability due to the choice of ground motion attenuation relation, the magnitude for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, and the recurrence interval for M>6.5 events. Seismic hazard is not very sensitive to the variability in seismogenic width and length. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

From Magma Fracture to a Seismic Magma Flow Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, J. W.

2007-12-01

Seismic swarms of low-frequency events occur during periods of enhanced volcanic activity and have been related to the flow of magma at depth. Often they precede a dome collapse on volcanoes like Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, or Mt St Helens. This contribution is based on the conceptual model of magma rupture as a trigger mechanism. Several source mechanisms and radiation patterns at the focus of a single event are discussed. We investigate the accelerating event rate and seismic amplitudes during one swarm, as well as over a time period of several swarms. The seismic slip vector will be linked to magma flow parameters resulting in estimates of magma flux for a variety of flow models such as plug flow, parabolic- or friction controlled flow. In this way we try to relate conceptual models to quantitative estimations which could lead to estimations of magma flux at depth from seismic low-frequency signals.

Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puangjaktha, Prayot; Pailoplee, Santi

2018-01-01

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes ( N) and time window ( T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here ( N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.

Patterns of significant seismic quiescence on the Mexican Pacific coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Diosdado, A.; Rudolf-Navarro, A. H.; Angulo-Brown, F.; Barrera-Ferrer, A. G.

Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, Mw = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, Mw = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, Mw = 8.0, and Mw = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, Mw = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.

Gabor Deconvolution as Preliminary Method to Reduce Pitfall in Deeper Target Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oktariena, M.; Triyoso, W.

2018-03-01

pitfall area is reduced and some morphed as background lithology. Gabor Deconvolution removes the attenuation by performing Gabor Domain spectral division, which in extension also reduces interpretation pitfall in deeper target seismic.

Causality between expansion of seismic cloud and maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in geothermal field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukuhira, Yusuke; Asanuma, Hiroshi; Ito, Takatoshi; Häring, Markus

2016-04-01

Occurrence of induced seismicity with large magnitude is critical environmental issues associated with fluid injection for shale gas/oil extraction, waste water disposal, carbon capture and storage, and engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Studies for prediction of the hazardous seismicity and risk assessment of induced seismicity has been activated recently. Many of these studies are based on the seismological statistics and these models use the information of the occurrence time and event magnitude. We have originally developed physics based model named "possible seismic moment model" to evaluate seismic activity and assess seismic moment which can be ready to release. This model is totally based on microseismic information of occurrence time, hypocenter location and magnitude (seismic moment). This model assumes existence of representative parameter having physical meaning that release-able seismic moment per rock volume (seismic moment density) at given field. Seismic moment density is to be estimated from microseismic distribution and their seismic moment. In addition to this, stimulated rock volume is also inferred by progress of microseismic cloud at given time and this quantity can be interpreted as the rock volume which can release seismic energy due to weakening effect of normal stress by injected fluid. Product of these two parameters (equation (1)) provide possible seismic moment which can be released from current stimulated zone as a model output. Difference between output of this model and observed cumulative seismic moment corresponds the seismic moment which will be released in future, based on current stimulation conditions. This value can be translated into possible maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in future. As this way, possible seismic moment can be used to have feedback to hydraulic stimulation operation in real time as an index which can be interpreted easily and intuitively. Possible seismic moment is defined as equation (1), where D

How a Country-Wide Seismological Network Can Improve Understanding of Seismicity and Seismic Hazard -- The Example of Bhutan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hetényi, G.; Diehl, T.; Singer, J.; Kissling, E. H.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.

2015-12-01

The Eastern Himalayas are home to a seemingly complex seismo-tectonic evolution. The rate of instrumental seismicity is lower than the average along the orogen, there is no record of large historical events, but both paleoseismology and GPS studies point to potentially large (M>8) earthquakes. Due to the lack of a permanent seismic monitoring system in the area, our current level of understanding is inappropriate to create a reliable quantitative seismic hazard model for the region. Existing maps are based on questionable hypotheses and show major inconsistencies when compared to each other. Here we present results on national and regional scales from a 38-station broadband seismological network we operated for almost 2 years in the Kingdom of Bhutan. A thorough, state-of-the-art analysis of local and regional earthquakes builds a comprehensive catalogue that reveals significantly (2-to-3 orders of magnitude) more events than detected from global networks. The seismotectonic analysis reveals new patterns of seismic activity as well as striking differences over relatively short distances within the Himalayas, only partly explained by surface observations such as geology. We compare a priori and a posteriori (BMC) magnitude of completeness maps and show that our network was able to detect all felt events during its operation. Some of these events could be felt at surprisingly large distances. Based on our experiment and experience, we draft the pillars on which a permanent seismological observatory for Bhutan could be constructed. Such a continuous monitoring system of seismic activity could then lead to a reliable quantitative seismic hazard model for Bhutan and surrounding regions, and serve as a base to improve building codes and general preparedness.

Advanced Seismic While Drilling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Radtke; John Fontenot; David Glowka

by TII. An APS Turbine Alternator powered the SeismicPULSER{trademark} to produce two Hz frequency peak signals repeated every 20 seconds. Since the ION Geophysical, Inc. (ION) seismic survey surface recording system was designed to detect a minimum downhole signal of three Hz, successful performance was confirmed with a 5.3 Hz recording with the pumps running. The two Hz signal generated by the sparker was modulated with the 3.3 Hz signal produced by the mud pumps to create an intense 5.3 Hz peak frequency signal. The low frequency sparker source is ultimately capable of generating selectable peak frequencies of 1 to 40 Hz with high-frequency spectra content to 10 kHz. The lower frequencies and, perhaps, low-frequency sweeps, are needed to achieve sufficient range and resolution for realtime imaging in deep (15,000 ft+), high-temperature (150 C) wells for (a) geosteering, (b) accurate seismic hole depth, (c) accurate pore pressure determinations ahead of the bit, (d) near wellbore diagnostics with a downhole receiver and wired drill pipe, and (e) reservoir model verification. Furthermore, the pressure of the sparker bubble will disintegrate rock resulting in an increased overall rates of penetration. Other applications for the SeismicPULSER{trademark} technology are to deploy a low-frequency source for greater range on a wireline for Reverse Vertical Seismic Profiling (RVSP) and Cross-Well Tomography. Commercialization of the technology is being undertaken by first contacting stakeholders to define the value proposition for rig site services utilizing SeismicPULSER{trademark} technologies. Stakeholders include national oil companies, independent oil companies, independents, service companies, and commercial investors. Service companies will introduce a new Drill Bit SWD service for deep HTHP wells. Collaboration will be encouraged between stakeholders in the form of joint industry projects to develop prototype tools and initial field trials. No barriers have been

Reevaluation of the Seismicity and seismic hazards of Northeastern Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Suleman, abdunnur; Aousetta, Fawzi

2014-05-01

Libya, located at the northern margin of the African continent, underwent many episodes of orogenic activities. These episodes of orogenic activities affected and shaped the geological setting of the country. This study represents a detailed investigation that aims to focus on the seismicity and its implications on earthquake hazards of Northeastern Libya. At the end of year 2005 the Libyan National Seismological Network starts functioning with 15 stations. The Seismicity of the area under investigation was reevaluated using data recorded by the recently established network. The Al-Maraj earthquake occurred in May 22nd 2005was analyzed. This earthquake was located in a known seismically active area. This area was the sight of the well known 1963 earthquake that kills over 200 people. Earthquakes were plotted and resulting maps were interpreted and discussed. The level of seismic activity is higher in some areas, such as the city of Al-Maraj. The offshore areas north of Al-Maraj seem to have higher seismic activity. It is highly recommended that the recent earthquake activity is considered in the seismic hazard assessments for the northeastern part of Libya.

Field Installation and Real-Time Data Processing of the New Integrated SeismoGeodetic System with Real-Time Acceleration and Displacement Measurements for Earthquake Characterization Based on High-Rate Seismic and GPS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimakov, Leonid; Jackson, Michael; Passmore, Paul; Raczka, Jared; Alvarez, Marcos; Barrientos, Sergio

2015-04-01

We will discuss and show the results obtained from an integrated SeismoGeodetic System, model SG160-09, installed in the Chilean National Network. The SG160-09 provides the user high rate GNSS and accelerometer data, full epoch-by-epoch measurement integrity and, using the Trimble Pivot™ SeismoGeodetic App, the ability to create combined GNSS and accelerometer high-rate (200Hz) displacement time series in real-time. The SG160-09 combines seismic recording with GNSS geodetic measurement in a single compact, ruggedized package. The system includes a low-power, 220-channel GNSS receiver powered by the latest Trimble-precise Maxwell™6 technology and supports tracking GPS, GLONASS and Galileo signals. The receiver incorporates on-board GNSS point positioning using Real-Time Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technology with satellite clock and orbit corrections delivered over IP networks. The seismic recording element includes an ANSS Class A, force balance triaxial accelerometer with the latest, low power, 24-bit A/D converter, which produces high-resolution seismic data. The SG160-09 processor acquires and packetizes both seismic and geodetic data and transmits it to the central station using an advanced, error-correction protocol with back fill capability providing data integrity between the field and the processing center. The SG160-09 has been installed in the seismic station close to the area of the Iquique earthquake of April 1, 2014, in northern Chile, a seismically prone area at the current time. The hardware includes the SG160-09 system, external Zephyr Geodetic-2 GNSS antenna, and high-speed Internet communication media. Both acceleration and displacement data was transmitted in real-time to the National Seismological Center in Santiago for real-time data processing using Earthworm / Early Bird software. Command/Control of the field station and real-time GNSS position correction are provided via the Pivot software suite. Data from the SG160-09 system was

Seismicity in Oklahoma Before Prague

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorey, A. A.; Johnson, P. A.

2017-12-01

The 2011 M5.7 Prague earthquake was the first large anthropogenically induced earthquake in Oklahoma. Since then, three more M5+ earthquakes followed it near Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing. Oklahoma induced seismicity has garnered a lot of attention from both the media and the scientific community. But, little is known about seismicity in Oklahoma prior to the Prague earthquake due to a lack of instrumentation. We ask the question, "Was there any indication in the geophysical record prior to the Prague earthquake that bigger earthquakes were becoming more likely?" Fortunately, stations from Earthscope's Transportable Array were in Oklahoma during 2010 and 2011 providing a sparse, but still useful data set. Using our microseismicity detector called Interstation Seismic Coherence, we were able to catalog over 3000 earthquakes with a magnitude of completeness around 2.0 in northeastern Oklahoma over 17 months between June 2010 and the Prague earthquake in November 2011. During this period of time there are less than 200 earthquakes in the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and 900 in the catalog produced by the Array Network Facility at the UCSD using Transportable Array stations. The M>5 earthquakes occurred in a region where stress conditions and seismicity rates were evolving much faster than they do in many natural systems presenting an opportunity to study the time dependence of upper crustal behavior. A clustering analysis shows that earthquakes occurring in northeastern Oklahoma during 2010-2011 are highly correlated with the magnitude of solid earth tides. Although some aftershocks and clusters were recorded following the Prague earthquake using temporary arrays, regional seismicity is not well recorded again until later in 2013. Of note, after 2013, we no longer observe tidal correlation suggesting the ensemble of fault criticality has evolved. One explanation for this change in earthquake behavior is a change in poroelastic conditions.

The Budget Guide to Seismic Network Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, M. T.; Ebel, J. E.

2007-05-01

Regardless of their size, there are certain tasks that all seismic networks must perform, including data collection and processing, earthquake location, information dissemination, and quality control. Small seismic networks are unlikely to possess the resources -- manpower and money -- required to do much in-house development. Fortunately, there are a lot of free or inexpensive software solutions available that are able to perform many of the required tasks. Often the available solutions are all-in-one turnkey packages designed and developed for much larger seismic networks, and the cost of adapting them to a smaller network must be weighed against the ease with which other, non-seismic software can be adapted to the same task. We describe here the software and hardware choices we have made for the New England Seismic Network (NESN), a sparse regional seismic network responsible for monitoring and reporting all seismicity within the New England region in the northeastern U.S. We have chosen to use a cost-effective approach to monitoring using free, off-the-shelf solutions where available (e.g., Earthworm, HYP2000) and modifying freeware solutions when it is easier than trying to adapt a large, complicated package. We have selected for use software that is: free, likely to receive continued support from the seismic or, preferably, larger internet community, and modular. Modularity is key to our design because it ensures that if one component of our processing system becomes obsolete, we can insert a suitable replacement with few modifications to the other modules. Our automated event detection, identification and location system is based on a wavelet transform analysis of station data that arrive continuously via TCP/IP transmission over the internet. Our system for interactive analyst review of seismic events and remote system monitoring utilizes a combination of Earthworm modules, Perl cgi-bin scripts, Java, and native Unix commands and can now be carried out via

Geomorphology and seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panizza, Mario

1991-07-01

The author analyses the contributions provided by geomorphology in studies suited to the assessment of seismic risk: this is defined as function of the seismic hazard, of the seismic susceptibility, and of the vulnerability. The geomorphological studies applicable to seismic risk assessment can be divided into two sectors: (a) morpho-neotectonic investigations conducted to identify active tectonic structures; (b) geomorphological and morphometric analyses aimed at identifying the particular situations that amplify or reduce seismic susceptibility. The morpho-neotectonic studies lead to the identification, selection and classification of the lineaments that can be linked with active tectonic structures. The most important geomorphological situations that can condition seismic susceptibility are: slope angle, debris, morphology, degradational slopes, paleo-landslides and underground cavities.

Dynamic weakening of serpentinite gouges and bare surfaces at seismic slip rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proctor, B. P.; Mitchell, T. M.; Hirth, G.; Goldsby, D.; Zorzi, F.; Platt, J. D.; Di Toro, G.

2014-11-01

To investigate differences in the frictional behavior between initially bare rock surfaces of serpentinite and powdered serpentinite ("gouge") at subseismic to seismic slip rates, we conducted single-velocity step and multiple-velocity step friction experiments on an antigorite-rich and lizardite-rich serpentinite at slip rates (V) from 0.003 m/s to 6.5 m/s, sliding displacements up to 1.6 m, and normal stresses (σn) up to 22 MPa for gouge and 97 MPa for bare surfaces. Nominal steady state friction values (μnss) in gouge at V = 1 m/s are larger than in bare surfaces for all σn tested and demonstrate a strong σn dependence; μnss decreased from 0.51 at 4.0 MPa to 0.39 at 22.4 MPa. Conversely, μnss values for bare surfaces remained ~0.1 with increasing σn and V. Additionally, the velocity at the onset of frictional weakening and the amount of slip prior to weakening were orders of magnitude larger in gouge than in bare surfaces. Extrapolation of the normal stress dependence for μnss suggests that the behavior of antigorite gouge approaches that of bare surfaces at σn ≥ 60 MPa. X-ray diffraction revealed dehydration reaction products in samples that frictionally weakened. Microstructural analysis revealed highly localized slip zones with melt-like textures in some cases gouge experiments and in all bare surfaces experiments for V ≥ 1 m/s. One-dimensional thermal modeling indicates that flash heating causes frictional weakening in both bare surfaces and gouge. Friction values for gouge decrease at higher velocities and after longer displacements than bare surfaces because strain is more distributed.

New insights on the seismic hazard in the Balkans inferred from GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostino, Nicola; Métois, Marianne; Avallone, Antonio; Chamot-Rooke, Nicolas

2014-05-01

The Balkans region sits at the transition between stable Eurasia and highly straining continental Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in a widespread seismicity and high seismic hazard. Because of intensive human and economic development over the last decades, the vulnerability has increased in the region faster than the progress in seismic hazard assessments. Opposite to the relatively good understanding of the seismicity in plate boundaries contexts, the seismic hazard is poorly known in the regions of distributed continental deformation like the Balkan region and is often underestimated (England and Jackson, 2011). Current seismic hazard assessments are based on the historical and instrumental catalogues. However, the completeness interval of the historical data bases may be below the average recurrence of individual seismogenic structures. In addition, relatively sparse seismological networks in the region and limited cross-border seismic data exchanges cast doubts in seismotectonic interpretation and challenge our understanding of seismic and geodynamic processes. This results in a inhomogeneous knowledge of the seismic hazard of the region to date. Geodetic measurements have the capability to contribute to seismic hazard by mapping the field of current active deformation and translating it into estimates of the seismogenic potential. With simple assumptions, measurements of crustal deformation can be translated in estimates of the average frequency and magnitude of the largest events and assessments of the aseismic deformation. GPS networks in the Balkans have been growing during the last few years mainly for civilian application (e.g. Cadastral plan, telecommunications), but opening new opportunities to quantify the present-day rates of crustal deformation. Here we present the initial results of GEOSAB (Geodetic Estimate of Strain Accumulation over Balkans), an AXA-Research-Fund supported project devoted to the estimation of crustal deformation and the

Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission

Science.gov Websites

State Employees ASHSC State of Alaska search Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission View of Anchorage and Commissions Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission (ASHSC) main contant Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission logo Alaska Seismic Hazards Safety Commission (ASHSC) - Mission The Alaska Seismic

Strain accumulation across the central Nevada seismic zone, 1973-1994

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, J. C.; Lisowski, M.; Svarc, J. L.; Gross, W. K.

1995-10-01

Five trilateration networks extending for 280 km along the central Nevada seismic zone (1915 Pleasant Valley, M = 7.3; 1954 Dixie Valley, M = 6.8; 1954 Stillwater, M = 6.8; 1954 Rainbow Mountain, M = 6.6; 1954 Fairview Peak, M = 7.1; and 1932 Cedar Mountain, M = 7.2) have been surveyed 6 times since 1973 to determine deformation along the zone. Within the precision of measurement the deformation appears uniform along the zone and is described by the principal strain rates 0.036±0.008 μstrain/yr N60°W±3° and -0.031±0.008 μstrain/yr N30°E±3°, extension reckoned positive. The observed strain rates are consistent with simple, right-lateral, tensor shear at the rate of 0.033 μstrain/yr across a shear zone striking N15°W. This central Nevada shear zone appears to be the northward continuation of the eastern California shear zone. The orientation of the strike-slip and normal-slip ruptures within the central Nevada seismic zone are consistent with principal stress axes parallel to the measured principal strain rate axes. Space-based geodetic measurements (very long baseline interferometry) indicate that the relative motion accommodated across the Basin and Range province west of Ely, Nevada, is about 9.1±1.5 mm/yr N16°W±8° (Dixon et al., 1995.) Notice that the right-lateral shear zone postulated to explain deformation in the central Nevada seismic zone is properly oriented to accommodate that relative motion. However, a 135-km effective width of the shear zone would be required to accommodate all of the 9.1 mm/yr relative motion at the strain rates observed in the Nevada seismic zone; only about 3 mm/yr of that relative motion is accommodated within the span of the trilateration networks.

10 CFR 100.23 - Geologic and seismic siting criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Earthquake Ground Motion, and to permit adequate engineering solutions to actual or potential geologic and..., earthquake recurrence rates, fault geometry and slip rates, site foundation material, and seismically induced... Earthquake Ground Motion for the site, the potential for surface tectonic and nontectonic deformations, the...

10 CFR 100.23 - Geologic and seismic siting criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Earthquake Ground Motion, and to permit adequate engineering solutions to actual or potential geologic and..., earthquake recurrence rates, fault geometry and slip rates, site foundation material, and seismically induced... Earthquake Ground Motion for the site, the potential for surface tectonic and nontectonic deformations, the...

10 CFR 100.23 - Geologic and seismic siting criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Earthquake Ground Motion, and to permit adequate engineering solutions to actual or potential geologic and..., earthquake recurrence rates, fault geometry and slip rates, site foundation material, and seismically induced... Earthquake Ground Motion for the site, the potential for surface tectonic and nontectonic deformations, the...

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Seismic Data, January to December 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakata, Jennifer S.; Okubo, Paul G.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) summary presents seismic data gathered during the year. The seismic summary is offered without interpretation as a source of preliminary data and is complete in that most data for events of M greater than 1.5 are included. All latitude and longitude references in this report are stated in Old Hawaiian Datum. The HVO summaries have been published in various forms since 1956. Summaries prior to 1974 were issued quarterly, but cost, convenience of preparation and distribution, and the large quantities of data necessitated an annual publication, beginning with Summary 74 for the year 1974. Beginning in 2004, summaries are simply identified by the year, rather than by summary number. Summaries originally issued as administrative reports were republished in 2007 as Open-File Reports. All the summaries since 1956 are listed at http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/ (last accessed 09/21/2009). In January 1986, HVO adopted CUSP (California Institute of Technology USGS Seismic Processing). Summary 86 includes a description of the seismic instrumentation, calibration, and processing used in recent years. The present summary includes background information about the seismic network to provide the end user an understanding of the processing parameters and how the data were gathered. A report by Klein and Koyanagi (1980) tabulates instrumentation, calibration, and recording history of each seismic station in the network. It is designed as a reference for users of seismograms and phase data and includes and augments the information in the station table in this summary. Figures 11-14 are maps showing computer-located hypocenters. The maps were generated using the Generic Mapping Tools (GMT http://gmt.soest.hawaii.edu/, last accessed 09/21/2009) in place of traditional Qplot maps.

The impact of static stress change, dynamic stress change, and the background stress on aftershock focal mechanisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2014-01-01

The focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Southern California before and after four M ≥ 6.7 main shocks provide insight into how fault systems respond to stress and changes in stress. The main shock static stress changes have two observed impacts on the seismicity: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the static stress change and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the static stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly aligned with the static stress changes for absolute stress changes of ≥ 0.02 MPa, for up to ~20 years following the main shock. The dynamic stress changes have similar, although smaller, effects on the local focal mechanisms and the spatial seismicity distribution. Dynamic stress effects are best observed at long periods (30–60 s) and for metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction. This implies that dynamic triggering operates, at least in part, through cyclic shear stress loading in the direction of fault slip. The background stress also strongly controls both the preshock and aftershock mechanisms. While most aftershock mechanisms are well oriented in the background stress field, 10% of aftershocks are identified as poorly oriented outliers, which may indicate limited heterogeneity in the postmain shock stress field. The fault plane orientations of the outliers are well oriented in the background stress, while their slip directions are not, implying that the background stress restricts the distribution of available fault planes.

Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

2018-01-01

We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015

Induced Seismicity: Balancing the Scientific Process With the Need for Rapid Communication of Evolving Seismic Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochran, E. S.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.

2014-12-01

In this presentation, we outline the USGS response to dramatically increased earthquake activity in the central and eastern US, with a focus on Oklahoma. Using the November 2011 Prague, OK earthquake sequence as an example, we describe the tensions between the need to conduct thorough scientific investigations while providing timely information to local, state, and federal government agencies, and the public. In the early morning hours of November 5, 2011 a M4.8 earthquake struck near the town of Prague, Oklahoma and was followed by a M5.6 earthquake just over 20 hours later. The mainshock was widely felt across the central US, causing damage to homes close to the epicenter and injuring at least 2 people. Within hours of the initial event several portable instruments were installed and following the mainshock a larger seismic deployment was mounted (Keranen et al., 2013). A sizeable earthquake in the central or eastern US is always of scientific interest due to the dearth of seismic data available for assessing seismic hazard. The Prague sequence garnered especially strong scientific and public interest when a link between the sequence and injection of wastewater at several local deep wells was postulated. Therefore, there was a need to provide immediate information as it became available. However, in the first few days to months it was impossible to confidently confirm or refute whether the seismicity was linked to injection, but it was known that the foreshock occurred close to several deep injection wells and many of the events were shallow; thus, the sequence warranted further study. Over the course of the next few years, several studies built the case that the Prague sequence was likely induced by wastewater injection (Keranen et al., 2013; Sumy et al., 2014; McGarr, 2014) and additional studies suggested that the changes in seismicity throughout Oklahoma were not due to natural variations in seismicity rates (Llenos and Michael, 2013; Ellsworth, 2013). These

The performance of the stations of the Romanian seismic network in monitoring the local seismic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardeleanu, Luminita Angela; Neagoe, Cristian

2014-05-01

rate of reliable data are defining elements for the usefulness of a particular station. Our analysis provides a measure of station reliability, essential indicator for decisions regarding the increasing of effectiveness and future development of the Romanian seismic network.

Redistribution Principle Approach for Evaluation of Seismic Active Earth Pressure Behind Retaining Wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskar, A. D.; Madhekar, S. N.; Phatak, D. R.

2017-11-01

pressure obtained by pseudo-dynamic approach and seismic earth pressure obtained by redistribution principle have different background of formulation, the final earth pressure distribution is approximately same.

Seismicity parameters preceding moderate to major earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Seggern, David; Alexander, Shelton S.; Baag, Chang-Eob

1981-10-01

Seismic events reported in the bulletins of the two large arrays, LASA and NORSAR, were merged with those from the NEIS bulletin for the period 1970-1977. Using a lower cutoff of mb = 5.8, 510 `main shocks' within the P range of LASA or NORSAR were selected for this period; and various seismicity trends prior to them were investigated. A search for definite foreshocks, based on a significantly short time delay to the main shock, revealed that the true rate of foreshock occurrence was less than 20%. Foreshocks are almost exclusively associated with shallow (h < 100 km) main shocks. To establish common features, a method of averaging seismicity from many regions was used to suppress the randomness of the seismic behavior of each region. This averaging shows that the seismicity level around the main shock increases somewhat for 10 days before main shocks; this feature peaks in the last 3-4 hours prior to the main shocks. The averaging also reveals that the mean magnitude of events near the main shock increases prior to main shocks but only by a few hundredths of a magnitude unit. Again by averaging, the seismicity about main shocks is shown to tend with time toward the main shock as its origin time is approached, but the average effect is small (˜10% change). By expanding or contracting each region's time scale before averaging to relate to the magnitude of the main shock, these features are enhanced. Using a new variable to track the departures from both spatial and temporal randomness, the Poisson-like behavior of deeper seismicity (>100 km) was demonstrated. For shallow events (<100 km) this variable reveals numerous instances of clustering and spatial-temporal seismic gaps, with little tendency toward a uniformity of behavior prior to main shocks. A statistical test of the validity of seismic precursors was performed for approximately 90 main shock regions which had sufficient seismicity. Using a five-variable vector (interevent time, interevent distance

Seismic Sources for the Territory of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.

2011-12-01

The southern Caucasus is an earthquake prone region where devastating earthquakes have repeatedly caused significant loss of lives, infrastructure and buildings. High geodynamic activity of the region expressed in both seismic and aseismic deformations, is conditioned by the still-ongoing convergence of lithospheric plates and northward propagation of the Afro-Arabian continental block at a rate of several cm/year. The geometry of tectonic deformations in the region is largely determined by the wedge-shaped rigid Arabian block intensively intended into the relatively mobile Middle East-Caucasian region. Georgia is partner of ongoing regional project EMME. The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this approach the first parameter requirement is the definition of seismic source zones. Seismic sources can be either faults or area sources. Seismoactive structures of Georgia are identified mainly on the basis of the correlation between neotectonic structures of the region and earthquakes. Requirements of modern PSH software to geometry of faults is very high. As our knowledge of active faults geometry is not sufficient, area sources were used. Seismic sources are defined as zones that are characterized with more or less uniform seismicity. Poor knowledge of the processes occurring in deep of the Earth is connected with complexity of direct measurement. From this point of view the reliable data obtained from earthquake fault plane solution is unique for understanding the character of a current tectonic life of investigated area. There are two methods of identification if seismic sources. The first is the seimsotectonic approach, based on identification of extensive homogeneous seismic sources (SS) with the definition of probability of occurrence of maximum earthquake Mmax. In the second method the identification of seismic sources

Forecasting volcanic unrest using seismicity: The good, the bad and the time consuming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvage, Rebecca; Neuberg, Jurgen W.

2013-04-01

Volcanic eruptions are inherently unpredictable in nature, with scientists struggling to forecast the type and timing of events, in particular in real time scenarios. Current understanding suggests that the use of statistical patterns within precursory datasets of seismicity prior to eruptive events could hold the potential to be used as real time forecasting tools. They allow us to determine times of clear deviation in data, which might be indicative of volcanic unrest. The identification of low frequency seismic swarms and the acceleration of this seismicity prior to observed volcanic unrest may be key in developing forecasting tools. The development of these real time forecasting models which can be implemented at volcano observatories is of particular importance since the identification of early warning signals allows danger to the proximal population to be minimized. We concentrate on understanding the significance and development of these seismic swarms as unrest develops at the volcano. In particular, analysis of accelerations in event rate, amplitude and energy rates released by seismicity prior to eruption suggests that these are important indicators of developing unrest. Real time analysis of these parameters simultaneously allows possible improvements to forecasting models. Although more time and computationally intense, cross correlation techniques applied to continuous seismicity prior to volcanic unrest scenarios allows all significant seismic events to be analysed, rather than only those which can be detected by an automated identification system. This may allow a more accurate forecast since all precursory seismicity can be taken into account. In addition, the classification of seismic events based on spectral characteristics may allow us to isolate individual types of signals which are responsible for certain types of unrest. In this way, we may be able to better forecast the type of eruption that may ensue, or at least some of its prevailing

Pre-, Co-, and Post-Seismic Fault Slip in the Northern Chile Seismic Gap Associated with the April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simons, M.; Duputel, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Galetzka, J.; Genrich, J. F.; Jiang, J.; Jolivet, R.; Kanamori, H.; Moore, A. W.; Ortega Culaciati, F. H.; Owen, S. E.; Riel, B. V.; Rivera, L. A.; Carrizo, D.; Cotte, N.; Jara, J.; Klotz, J.; Norabuena, E. O.; Ortega, I.; Socquet, A.; Samsonov, S. V.; Valderas Bermejo, M.

2014-12-01

The April 1, 2014 (Mw 8.2) Pisagua Earthquake occurred in Northern Chile, within a long recognized seismic gap in the Central Andean region that last experienced major megathrust events in 1868 and 1877. We built a continuous GPS network starting in 2005, with the ultimate goal of understanding the kinematics and dynamics of this portion of the subduction zone. Using observations from this network, as well as others in the region, combined with InSAR, seismic and tsunami observations, we obtain estimates of inter-seismic, co-seismic and initial post-seismic fault slip using an internally consistent Bayesian unregularized approach. We evaluate the extent of spatial overlap between regions of fault slip during this different time periods. Of particular interest to this event is the extent and nature of any geodetic evidence for transient slow fault slip preceding the Pisagua Earthquake mainshock. To this end, we compare daily and high rate GPS solutions, the former of which shows long period transient motion started about 15 days before the mainshock and with maximum registered amplitude of 14.2 +/- 2 [mm] at site PSGA. Contrary to published findings, we find that pre-seismic deformation seen by the GPS network can be explained as coseismic motion associated with the multiple foreshocks.

Fault Specific Seismic Hazard Maps as Input to Loss Reserves Calculation for Attica Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, Georgios; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Zimbidis, Alexandros; Roberts, Gerald

2014-05-01

Greece is prone to various natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods, landslides and earthquakes, due to the special environmental and geological conditions dominating in tectonic plate boundaries. Seismic is the predominant risk, in terms of damages and casualties in the Greek territory. The historical record of earthquakes in Greece has been published from various researchers, providing useful data in seismic hazard assessment of Greece. However, the completeness of the historical record in Greece, despite being one of the longest worldwide, reaches only 500 years for M ≥ 7.3 and less than 200 years for M ≥ 6.5. Considering that active faults in the area have recurrence intervals of a few hundred to several thousands of years, it is clear that many active faults have not been activated during the completeness period covered by the historical records. New Seismic Hazard Assessment methodologies tend to follow fault specific approaches where seismic sources are geologically constrained active faults, in order to address problems related to the historical records incompleteness, obtain higher spatial resolution and calculate realistic source locality distances, since seismic sources are very accurately located. Fault specific approaches provide quantitative assessments as they measure fault slip rates from geological data, providing a more reliable estimate of seismic hazard. We used a fault specific seismic hazard assessment approach for the region of Attica. The method of seismic hazard mapping from geological fault throw-rate data combined three major factors: Empirical data which combine fault rupture lengths, earthquake magnitudes and coseismic slip relationships. The radiuses of VI, VII, VIII and IX isoseismals on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. Attenuation - amplification functions for seismic shaking on bedrock compared to basin filling sediments. We explicitly modeled 22 active faults that could affect the region of Attica, including

RTX Correction Accuracy and Real-Time Data Processing of the New Integrated SeismoGeodetic System with Real-Time Acceleration and Displacement Measurements for Earthquake Characterization Based on High-Rate Seismic and GPS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Barrientos, S. E.

2016-12-01

We will discuss and show the results obtained from an integrated SeismoGeodetic System, model SG160-09, installed in the Chile (Chilean National Network), Italy (University of Naples Network), and California. The SG160-09 provides the user high rate GNSS and accelerometer data, full epoch-by-epoch measurement integrity and the ability to create combined GNSS and accelerometer high-rate (200Hz) displacement time series in real-time. The SG160-09 combines seismic recording with GNSS geodetic measurement in a single compact, ruggedized case. The system includes a low-power, 220-channel GNSS receiver powered by the latest Trimble-precise Maxwell™6 technology and supports tracking GPS, GLONASS and Galileo signals. The receiver incorporates on-board GNSS point positioning using Real-Time Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technology with satellite clock and orbit corrections delivered over IP networks. The seismic recording includes an ANSS Class A, force balance accelerometer with the latest, low power, 24-bit A/D converter, producing high-resolution seismic data. The SG160-09 processor acquires and packetizes both seismic and geodetic data and transmits it to the central station using an advanced, error-correction protocol providing data integrity between the field and the processing center. The SG160-09 has been installed in three seismic stations in different geographic locations with different Trimble global reference stations coverage The hardware includes the SG160-09 system, external Zephyr Geodetic-2 GNSS antenna, both radio and high-speed Internet communication media. Both acceleration and displacement data was transmitted in real-time to the centralized Data Acquisition Centers for real-time data processing. Command/Control of the field station and real-time GNSS position correction are provided via the Pivot platform. Data from the SG160-09 system was used for seismic event characterization along with data from traditional seismic and geodetic stations

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zang, Arno; Oye, Volker; Jousset, Philippe; Deichmann, Nicholas; Gritto, Roland; McGarr, Arthur F.; Majer, Ernest; Bruhn, David

2014-01-01

In this overview we report results of analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs in various tectonic settings within the framework of the European Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of Induced Seismicity in Reservoirs (GEISER) project. In the reconnaissance phase of a field, the subsurface fault mapping, in situ stress and the seismic network are of primary interest in order to help assess the geothermal resource. The hypocentres of the observed seismic events (seismic cloud) are dependent on the design of the installed network, the used velocity model and the applied location technique. During the stimulation phase, the attention is turned to reservoir hydraulics (e.g., fluid pressure, injection volume) and its relation to larger magnitude seismic events, their source characteristics and occurrence in space and time. A change in isotropic components of the full waveform moment tensor is observed for events close to the injection well (tensile character) as compared to events further away from the injection well (shear character). Tensile events coincide with high Gutenberg-Richter b-values and low Brune stress drop values. The stress regime in the reservoir controls the direction of the fracture growth at depth, as indicated by the extent of the seismic cloud detected. Stress magnitudes are important in multiple stimulation of wells, where little or no seismicity is observed until the previous maximum stress level is exceeded (Kaiser Effect). Prior to drilling, obtaining a 3D P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) model down to reservoir depth is recommended. In the stimulation phase, we recommend to monitor and to locate seismicity with high precision (decametre) in real-time and to perform local 4D tomography for velocity ratio (Vp/Vs). During exploitation, one should use observed and model induced seismicity to forward estimate seismic hazard so that field operators are in a position to adjust well hydraulics (rate and volume of the

Seismic array observations for monitoring phreatic eruptions in Iwojima Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueda, H.; Kawaguchi, R.; Chiba, K.; Fujita, E.; Tanada, T.

2015-12-01

Iwojima is an active volcanic island located within a 10 km wide submarine caldera about 1250 km to the south of Tokyo, Japan. The volcanic activity is characterized by intensive earthquake activity associated with an island-wide uplift with high uplift rate (30~40 cm/year) and hydrothermal activity. In the last 10 years, phreatic eruptions took place in and near the island in 2012, 2013, and 2015. In such restless volcano, predictions and detections of occurrence points of phreatic eruptions are important for ensuring safety of residents. In the previous studies, we found that the earthquake activity of Iwojima highly correlates with the island wide large uplift, but the precursory activity of the phreatic eruption in 2012 was deviated from the correlation (Ueda et al. 2013 AGU Fall Meeting). For prediction of occurrence points of phreatic eruptions and investigation of the eruption mechanism, we began observation by seismic arrays at two areas in December 2014. The seismic arrays enable to locate epicenters of volcanic tremors, which are not well located by existing seismic stations. In May and June 2015, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force stayed in Iwojima and a live camera of Japan Meteorological Agency found very small phreatic eruptions occurred at the northern beach. Existing seismic stations could not detect seismic signals related with the eruptions. The seismic array could detect weak seismic signals related with the eruptions. Although the seismic arrays could not detect precursory signals because of too small eruption, we expect the seismic arrays can detect precursory seismic signals suggesting occurrence points of small or medium-sized phreatic eruptions. The seismic arrays also detected epicenters of harmonic and monotonic tremors took place at an active fumarolic field in the north earthen part of Iwojima. The apparent velocity of seismic waves (~1km/s) strongly suggests that the tremors relate with hydrothermal activity near ground surface.

Specification goals for a Mars seismic network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Paul M.

1990-01-01

A seismic network on Mars should have enough stations (e.g., 24) to characterize the seismicity of the planet for comparison with a diversity of structural features; be comprised of low noise stations, preferably underground, 3 to 4 orders of magnitude more sensitive than those used on Viking; record over a sufficient band-width (DC-30 Hz) to detect micro-earthquakes to normal modes; and record for a sufficient duration (10 years) and data rate (10(exp 8) Mb/day/station) to obtain a data set comparable to that from the Apollo mission to the Moon so that locations of major internal boundaries can be inferred, such as those in the Earth, i.e., crust - lithosphere - asthenosphere - upper - lower phase transitions - outer - inner core. The proposed Mars Global Network Mission provides an opportunity to sense the dynamics and probe the interior of the planet. The seismic objectives, the availability of the instrumentation and trade-offs to meet them are discussed.

Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

Self-induced seismicity due to fluid circulation along faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Poisson, Blanche; Toussaint, Renaud; Rachez, Xavier; Schmittbuhl, Jean

2014-03-01

In this paper, we develop a system of equations describing fluid migration, fault rheology, fault thickness evolution and shear rupture during a seismic cycle, triggered either by tectonic loading or by fluid injection. Assuming that the phenomena predominantly take place on a single fault described as a finite permeable zone of variable width, we are able to project the equations within the volumetric fault core onto the 2-D fault interface. From the basis of this `fault lubrication approximation', we simulate the evolution of seismicity when fluid is injected at one point along the fault to model-induced seismicity during an injection test in a borehole that intercepts the fault. We perform several parametric studies to understand the basic behaviour of the system. Fluid transmissivity and fault rheology are key elements. The simulated seismicity generally tends to rapidly evolve after triggering, independently of the injection history and end when the stationary path of fluid flow is established at the outer boundary of the model. This self-induced seismicity takes place in the case where shear rupturing on a planar fault becomes dominant over the fluid migration process. On the contrary, if healing processes take place, so that the fluid mass is trapped along the fault, rupturing occurs continuously during the injection period. Seismicity and fluid migration are strongly influenced by the injection rate and the heterogeneity.

Seismic imaging of slab metamorphism and genesis of intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, Akira; Nakajima, Junichi

2017-12-01

We review studies of intermediate-depth seismicity and seismic imaging of the interior of subducting slabs in relation to slab metamorphism and their implications for the genesis of intermediate-depth earthquakes. Intermediate-depth events form a double seismic zone in the depth range of c. 40-180 km, which occur only at locations where hydrous minerals are present, and are particularly concentrated along dehydration reaction boundaries. Recent studies have revealed detailed spatial distributions of these events and a close relationship with slab metamorphism. Pressure-temperature paths of the crust for cold slabs encounter facies boundaries with large H2O production rates and positive total volume change, which are expected to cause highly active seismicity near the facies boundaries. A belt of upper-plane seismicity in the crust nearly parallel to 80-90 km depth contours of the slab surface has been detected in the cold Pacific slab beneath eastern Japan, and is probably caused by slab crust dehydration with a large H2O production rate. A seismic low-velocity layer in the slab crust persists down to the depth of this upper-plane seismic belt, which provides evidence for phase transformation of dehydration at this depth. Similar low-velocity subducting crust closely related with intraslab seismicity has been detected in several other subduction zones. Seismic tomography studies in NE Japan and northern Chile also revealed the presence of a P-wave low-velocity layer along the lower plane of a double seismic zone. However, in contrast to predictions based on the serpentinized mantle, S-wave velocity along this layer is not low. Seismic anisotropy and pore aspect ratio may play a role in generating this unique structure. Although further validation is required, observations of these distinct low P-wave velocities along the lower seismic plane suggest the presence of hydrated rocks or fluids within that layer. These observations support the hypothesis that dehydration

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

Controlling Low-Rate Signal Path Microdischarge for an Ultra-Low-Background Proportional Counter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mace, Emily K.; Aalseth, Craig E.; Bonicalzi, Ricco

2013-05-01

ABSTRACT Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed an ultra-low-background proportional counter (ULBPC) made of high purity copper. These detectors are part of an ultra-low-background counting system (ULBCS) in the newly constructed shallow underground laboratory at PNNL (at a depth of ~30 meters water-equivalent). To control backgrounds, the current preamplifier electronics are located outside the ULBCS shielding. Thus the signal from the detector travels through ~1 meter of cable and is potentially susceptible to high voltage microdischarge and other sources of electronic noise. Based on initial successful tests, commercial cables and connectors were used for this critical signal path. Subsequentmore » testing across different batches of commercial cables and connectors, however, showed unwanted (but still low) rates of microdischarge noise. To control this noise source, two approaches were pursued: first, to carefully validate cables, connectors, and other commercial components in this critical signal path, making modifications where necessary; second, to develop a custom low-noise, low-background preamplifier that can be integrated with the ULBPC and thus remove most commercial components from the critical signal path. This integrated preamplifier approach is based on the Amptek A250 low-noise charge-integrating preamplifier module. The initial microdischarge signals observed are presented and characterized according to the suspected source. Each of the approaches for mitigation is described, and the results from both are compared with each other and with the original performance seen with commercial cables and connectors.« less

A Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical coupled Numerical modeling of Injection-induced seismicity on a pre-existing fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongchan; Archer, Rosalind

2017-04-01

In terms of energy development (oil, gas and geothermal field) and environmental improvement (carbon dioxide sequestration), fluid injection into subsurface has been dramatically increased. As a side effect of these operations, a number of injection-induced seismic activities have also significantly risen. It is known that the main causes of induced seismicity are changes in local shear and normal stresses and pore pressure as well. This mechanism leads to increase in the probability of earthquake occurrence on permeable pre-existing fault zones predominantly. In this 2D fully coupled THM geothermal reservoir numerical simulation of injection-induced seismicity, we investigate the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical behavior of the fracture zone, considering a variety of 1) fault permeability, 2) injection rate and 3) injection temperature to identify major contributing parameters to induced seismic activity. We also calculate spatiotemporal variation of the Coulomb stress which is a combination of shear stress, normal stress and pore pressure and lastly forecast the seismicity rate on the fault zone by computing the seismic prediction model of Dieterich (1994).

The Search for Fluid Injection-induced Seismicity in California Oilfields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Layland-Bachmann, C. E.; Brodsky, E. E.; Foxall, W.; Goebel, T.; Jordan, P. D.

2017-12-01

During recent years, earthquakes associated with human activity have become a matter of heightened public concern. Wastewater injection is a major concern, as seismic events with magnitudes larger than M5.5 have been linked to this practice. Much of the research in the United States is focused on the mid-continental regions, where low rates of naturally-occurring seismicity and high-volume injection activities facilitate easier identification by statistical correlation of potentially induced seismic events . However, available industry data are often limited in these regions and therefore limits our ability to connect specific human activities to earthquakes. Specifically, many previous studies have focused primarily on injection activity in single wells, ignoring the interconnectivity of production and injection in a reservoir. The situation in California differs from the central U.S. in two ways: (1) A rich dataset of oilfield activity is publically available from state agencies, which enables a more in-depth investigation of the human forcing; and (2) the identification of potential anthropogenically-induced earthquakes is complex as a result of high tectonic activity. Here we address both differences. We utilize a public database of hydrologically connected reservoirs to assess whether there are any statistically significant correlations between the net injected volumes, reservoir pressures and injection depths, and the earthquake locations and frequencies of occurrence. We introduce a framework of physical and empirical models and statistical techniques to identify potentially induced seismic events. While the aim is to apply the methods statewide, we first apply our methods in the Southern San Joaquin Valley. Although, we find an anomalously high earthquake rate in Southern Kern County oilfields, which is consistent with previous studies, we do not find a simple straightforward correlation. To successfully study induced seismicity we need a seismic catalog

Near Field Observations of Seismicity in Volcanic Environments: A Read-Made Field Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, C. J.; Thun, J.; Eibl, E. P. S.; Benson, P. M.; Rowley, P.; Lokmer, I.; Cauchie, L.

2017-12-01

Volcanic environments experience periods of rapid stress fluctuations and consequent seismicity. This volcano seismicity is diverse in character, spanning the range from discrete high frequency events through low-frequency earthquakes and tremor. The inter-relationships between these events appear to be controlled by edifice rheology, stress state and the presence of fluids (which help modulate the stress field). In general volcanoes are accessible to instrumentation, allowing near-field access to the seismicity at play. Here we present results from a range of field, numerical and laboratory experiments that demonstrate the controls that rheology and strain rate play on seismicity type. In particular we demonstrate the role played by internal friction angles on the initiation and evolution of seismicity, in dry weak-compliant volcanic materials. Furthermore we show the importance of near field observation in constraining details of the seismic source, in a meso-scale field setting.

Automated classification of seismic sources in a large database: a comparison of Random Forests and Deep Neural Networks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, Clement; Stumpf, André; Provost, Floriane; Malet, Jean-Philippe

2017-04-01

In the past decades, the increasing quality of seismic sensors and capability to transfer remotely large quantity of data led to a fast densification of local, regional and global seismic networks for near real-time monitoring of crustal and surface processes. This technological advance permits the use of seismology to document geological and natural/anthropogenic processes (volcanoes, ice-calving, landslides, snow and rock avalanches, geothermal fields), but also led to an ever-growing quantity of seismic data. This wealth of seismic data makes the construction of complete seismicity catalogs, which include earthquakes but also other sources of seismic waves, more challenging and very time-consuming as this critical pre-processing stage is classically done by human operators and because hundreds of thousands of seismic signals have to be processed. To overcome this issue, the development of automatic methods for the processing of continuous seismic data appears to be a necessity. The classification algorithm should satisfy the need of a method that is robust, precise and versatile enough to be deployed to monitor the seismicity in very different contexts. In this study, we evaluate the ability of machine learning algorithms for the analysis of seismic sources at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano being Random Forest and Deep Neural Network classifiers. We gather a catalog of more than 20,000 events, belonging to 8 classes of seismic sources. We define 60 attributes, based on the waveform, the frequency content and the polarization of the seismic waves, to parameterize the seismic signals recorded. We show that both algorithms provide similar positive classification rates, with values exceeding 90% of the events. When trained with a sufficient number of events, the rate of positive identification can reach 99%. These very high rates of positive identification open the perspective of an operational implementation of these algorithms for near-real time monitoring of

Angola seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neto, Francisco António Pereira; França, George Sand; Condori, Cristobal; Sant'Anna Marotta, Giuliano; Chimpliganond, Cristiano Naibert

2018-05-01

This work describes the development of the Angolan earthquake catalog and seismicity distribution in the Southwestern African Plate, in Angola. This region is one of the least seismically active, even for stable continental regions (SCRs) in the world. The maximum known earthquake had a magnitude of 6.0 Ms, while events with magnitudes of 4.5 have return period of about 10 years. Events with magnitude 5 and above occur with return period of about 20 years. Five seismic zones can be confirmed in Angola, within and along craton edges and in the sedimentary basins including offshore. Overall, the exposed cratonic regions tend to have more earthquakes compared to other regions such as sedimentary basins. Earthquakes tend to occur in Archaic rocks, especially inside preexisting weakness zones and in tectonic-magmatic reactivation zones of Mesozoic and Meso-Cenozoic, associated with the installation of a wide variety of intrusive rocks, strongly marked by intense tectonism. This fact can be explained by the models of preexisting weakness zones and stress concentration near intersecting structures. The Angolan passive margin is also a new region where seismic activity occurs. Although clear differences are found between different areas along the passive margin, in the middle near Porto Amboim city, seismic activity is more frequent compared with northwestern and southwestern regions.

Rescaled Range analysis of Induced Seismicity: rapid classification of clusters in seismic crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejar-Pizarro, M.; Perez Lopez, R.; Benito-Parejo, M.; Guardiola-Albert, C.; Herraiz, M.

2017-12-01

Different underground fluid operations, mainly gas storing, fracking and water pumping, can trigger Induced Seismicity (IS). This seismicity is normally featured by small-sized earthquakes (M<2.5), although particular cases reach magnitude as great as 5. It has been up for debate whether earthquakes greater than 5 can be triggered by IS or this level of magnitude only corresponds to tectonic earthquakes caused by stress change. Whatever the case, the characterization of IS for seismic clusters and seismic series recorded close but not into the gas storage, is still under discussion. Time-series of earthquakes obey non-linear patterns where the Hurst exponent describes the persistency or anti-persistency of the sequence. Natural seismic sequences have an H-exponent close to 0.7, which combined with the b-value time evolution during the time clusters, give us valuable information about the stationarity of the phenomena. Tectonic earthquakes consist in a main shock with a decay of time-occurrence of seismic shocks obeying the Omori's empirical law. On the contrary, IS does not exhibit a main shock and the time occurrence depends on the injection operations instead of on the tectonic energy released. In this context, the H-exponent can give information about the origin of the sequence. In 2013, a seismic crisis was declared from the Castor underground gas storing located off-shore in the Mediterranean Sea, close to the Northeastern Spanish cost. The greatest induced earthquake was 3.7. However, a 4.2 earthquake, probably of tectonic origin, occurred few days after the operations stopped. In this work, we have compared the H-exponent and the b-value time evolution according to the timeline of gas injection. Moreover, we have divided the seismic sequence into two groups: (1) Induced Seismicity and (2) Triggered Seismicity. The rescaled range analysis allows the differentiation between natural and induced seismicity and gives information about the persistency and long

Arc segmentation and seismicity in the Solomon Islands arc, SW Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ming-Chu; Frohlich, Cliff; Taylor, Frederick W.; Burr, George; van Ufford, Andrew Quarles

2011-07-01

surface trace of the interplate thrust zone defines it adequately. The New Georgia supersegment has smaller arc segments, and more islands due to general late Quaternary forearc uplift very close to the trench where vertical displacement rates tend to be faster; prior to the 2007 earthquake it had much lower rates of seismic activity than the neighboring supersegments. Generally the mean along-arc lateral extent of Solomon arc segments is about 75 km, somewhat smaller than the segments reported in some other island arcs such as Japan (~ 100-260 km), but larger than those of the Tonga (30-80 km) and Central New Hebrides arcs (30-110 km). These differences may be real but it may occur simply because the coral-friendly tropical environment of the South Pacific arcs, numerous emerged forearc islands, and high seismicity rates provide an unusually favorable situation for observing variations in vertical tectonic activity and thus for identifying segment boundaries. Over the past century seismic slip in the Solomons, as indicated by seismic moment release, has corresponded to about half the plate convergence rate; however, there are notable variations along the arc. Even with the 2007 earthquake, the long-term moment release rate in the New Georgia supersegment is relatively low, and this may indicate that large earthquakes are imminent.

New comprehensive standard seismic noise models and 3D seismic noise variation for Morocco territory, North Africa, obtained using seismic broadband stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Fellah, Younes; El-Aal, Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd; Harnafi, Mimoun; Villaseñor, Antonio

2017-05-01

In the current work, we constructed new comprehensive standard seismic noise models and 3D temporal-spatial seismic noise level cubes for Morocco in north-west Africa to be used for seismological and engineering purposes. Indeed, the original global standard seismic noise models published by Peterson (1993) and their following updates by Astiz and Creager (1995), Ekström (2001) and Berger et al. (2003) had no contributing seismic stations deployed in North Africa. Consequently, this preliminary study was conducted to shed light on seismic noise levels specific to north-west Africa. For this purpose, 23 broadband seismic stations recently installed in different structural domains throughout Morocco are used to study the nature and characteristics of seismic noise and to create seismic noise models for Morocco. Continuous data recorded during 2009, 2010 and 2011 were processed and analysed to construct these new noise models and 3D noise levels from all stations. We compared the Peterson new high-noise model (NHNM) and low-noise model (NLNM) with the Moroccan high-noise model (MHNM) and low-noise model (MLNM). These new noise models are comparable to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) models in the short period band; however, in the period range 1.2 s to 1000 s for MLNM and 10 s to 1000 s for MHNM display significant variations. This variation is attributed to differences in the nature of seismic noise sources that dominate Morocco in these period bands. The results of this study have a new perception about permanent seismic noise models for this spectacular region and can be considered a significant contribution because it supplements the Peterson models and can also be used to site future permanent seismic stations in Morocco.

Response of seismicity to Coulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 Mw=7.6 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ma, K.-F.; Chan, C.-H.; Stein, R.S.

2005-01-01

The correlation between static Coulomb stress increases and aftershocks has thus far provided the strongest evidence that stress changes promote seismicity, a correlation that the Chi-Chi earthquake well exhibits. Several studies have deepened the argument by resolving stress changes on aftershock focal mechanisms, which removes the assumption that the aftershocks are optimally oriented for failure. Here one compares the percentage of planes on which failure is promoted after the main shock relative to the percentage beforehand. For Chi-Chi we find a 28% increase for thrust and an 18% increase for strike-slip mechanisms, commensurate with increases reported for other large main shocks. However, perhaps the chief criticism of static stress triggering is the difficulty in observing predicted seismicity rate decreases in the stress shadows, or sites of Coulomb stress decrease. Detection of sustained drops in seismicity rate demands a long catalog with a low magnitude of completeness and a high seismicity rate, conditions that are met at Chi-Chi. We find four lobes with statistically significant seismicity rate declines of 40-90% for 50 months, and they coincide with the stress shadows calculated for strike-slip faults, the dominant faulting mechanism. The rate drops are evident in uniform cell calculations, 100-month time series, and by visual inspection of the M ??? 3 seismicity. An additional reason why detection of such declines has proven so rare emerges from this study: there is a widespread increase in seismicity rate during the first 3 months after Chi-Chi, and perhaps many other main shocks, that might be associated with a different mechanism. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Two applications of time reversal mirrors: seismic radio and seismic radar.

PubMed

Hanafy, Sherif M; Schuster, Gerard T

2011-10-01

Two seismic applications of time reversal mirrors (TRMs) are introduced and tested with field experiments. The first one is sending, receiving, and decoding coded messages similar to a radio except seismic waves are used. The second one is, similar to radar surveillance, detecting and tracking a moving object(s) in a remote area, including the determination of the objects speed of movement. Both applications require the prior recording of calibration Green's functions in the area of interest. This reference Green's function will be used as a codebook to decrypt the coded message in the first application and as a moving sensor for the second application. Field tests show that seismic radar can detect the moving coordinates (x(t), y(t), z(t)) of a person running through a calibration site. This information also allows for a calculation of his velocity as a function of location. Results with the seismic radio are successful in seismically detecting and decoding coded pulses produced by a hammer. Both seismic radio and radar are highly robust to signals in high noise environments due to the super-stacking property of TRMs. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Seismic intrusion detector system

DOEpatents

Hawk, Hervey L.; Hawley, James G.; Portlock, John M.; Scheibner, James E.

1976-01-01

A system for monitoring man-associated seismic movements within a control area including a geophone for generating an electrical signal in response to seismic movement, a bandpass amplifier and threshold detector for eliminating unwanted signals, pulse counting system for counting and storing the number of seismic movements within the area, and a monitoring system operable on command having a variable frequency oscillator generating an audio frequency signal proportional to the number of said seismic movements.

Comparative statistical and spectral studies of seismic and non-seismic sub-ionospheric VLF anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolbang, Daniel; Biernat, Helfried; Schwingenschuh, Konrad; Eichelberger, Hans; Prattes, Gustav; Besser, Bruno; Boudjada, Mohammed Y.; Rozhnoi, Alexander; Solovieva, Maria; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Friedrich, Martin

2013-04-01

We present a comparative study of seismic and non-seismic sub-ionospheric VLF anomalies. Our method is based on parameter variations of the sub-ionospheric VLF waveguide formed by the surface and the lower ionosphere. The used radio links working in the frequency range between 10 and 50 kHz, the receivers are part of the European and Russian networks. Various authors investigated the lithopsheric-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling and predicted the lowering of the ionosphere over earthquake preparation zones [1]. The received nighttime signal of a sub-ionospheric waveguide depends strongly on the height of the ionospheric E-layer, typically 80 to 85 km. This height is characterized by a typical gradient of the electron density near the atmospheric-ionospheric boundary [2]. In the last years it has been turned out that one of the major issues of sub-ionospheric seismo-electromagnetic VLF studies are the non-seismic influences on the links, which have to be carefully characterized. Among others this could be traveling ionospheric disturbances, geomagnetic storms as well as electron precipitation. Our emphasis is on the analysis of daily, monthly and annual variations of the VLF amplitude. To improve the statistics we investigate the behavior and typical variations of the VLF amplitude and phase over a period of more than 2 years. One important parameter considered is the rate how often the fluctuations are falling below a significant level derived from a mean value. The temporal variations and the amplitudes of these depressions are studied for several years for sub-ionospheric VLF radio links with the receivers in Graz and Kamchatka. In order to study the difference between seismic and non-seismic turbulences in the lower ionosphere a power spectrum analysis of the received signal is performed too. We are especially interested in variations T>6 min which are typical for atmospheric gravity waves causing the lithospheric-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling [3]. All

Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoplee, Santi; Charusiri, Punya

2016-06-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Thailand was performed and compared to those of previous works. This PSHA was based upon (1) the most up-to-date paleoseismological data (slip rates), (2) the seismic source zones, (3) the seismicity parameters ( a and b values), and (4) the strong ground-motion attenuation models suggested as being suitable models for Thailand. For the PSHA mapping, both the ground shaking and probability of exceedance (POE) were analyzed and mapped using various methods of presentation. In addition, site-specific PSHAs were demonstrated for ten major provinces within Thailand. For instance, a 2 and 10 % POE in the next 50 years of a 0.1-0.4 g and 0.1-0.2 g ground shaking, respectively, was found for western Thailand, defining this area as the most earthquake-prone region evaluated in Thailand. In a comparison between the ten selected specific provinces within Thailand, the Kanchanaburi and Tak provinces had comparatively high seismic hazards, and therefore, effective mitigation plans for these areas should be made. Although Bangkok was defined as being within a low seismic hazard in this PSHA, a further study of seismic wave amplification due to the soft soil beneath Bangkok is required.

Seismic Design of a Single Bored Tunnel: Longitudinal Deformations and Seismic Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, J.; Moon, T.

2018-03-01

The large diameter bored tunnel passing through rock and alluvial deposits subjected to seismic loading is analyzed for estimating longitudinal deformations and member forces on the segmental tunnel liners. The project site has challenges including high hydrostatic pressure, variable ground profile and high seismic loading. To ensure the safety of segmental tunnel liner from the seismic demands, the performance-based two-level design earthquake approach, Functional Evaluation Earthquake and Safety Evaluation Earthquake, has been adopted. The longitudinal tunnel and ground response seismic analyses are performed using a three-dimensional quasi-static linear elastic and nonlinear elastic discrete beam-spring elements to represent segmental liner and ground spring, respectively. Three components (longitudinal, transverse and vertical) of free-field ground displacement-time histories evaluated from site response analyses considering wave passage effects have been applied at the end support of the strain-compatible ground springs. The result of the longitudinal seismic analyses suggests that seismic joint for the mitigation measure requiring the design deflection capacity of 5-7.5 cm is to be furnished at the transition zone between hard and soft ground condition where the maximum member forces on the segmental liner (i.e., axial, shear forces and bending moments) are induced. The paper illustrates how detailed numerical analyses can be practically applied to evaluate the axial and curvature deformations along the tunnel alignment under difficult ground conditions and to provide the seismic joints at proper locations to effectively reduce the seismic demands below the allowable levels.

Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panza, Giuliano F.; Romanelli, Fabio

2014-10-01

A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

2016-06-01

We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

Method of migrating seismic records

DOEpatents

Ober, Curtis C.; Romero, Louis A.; Ghiglia, Dennis C.

2000-01-01

The present invention provides a method of migrating seismic records that retains the information in the seismic records and allows migration with significant reductions in computing cost. The present invention comprises phase encoding seismic records and combining the encoded seismic records before migration. Phase encoding can minimize the effect of unwanted cross terms while still allowing significant reductions in the cost to migrate a number of seismic records.

Deep Seismic Reflection Images of the Sumatra Seismic and Aseismic Gaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S. C.; Hananto, N. D.; Chauhan, A.; Carton, H. D.; Midenet, S.; Djajadihardja, Y.

2009-12-01

The Sumatra subduction zone is seismically most active region on the Earth, and has been the site of three great earthquakes only in the last four years. The first of the series, the 2004 Boxing Day earthquake, broke 1300 km of the plate boundary and produced the devastating tsunami around the Indian Ocean. The second great earthquake occurred three months later in March 2005, about 150 km SE of the 2004 event. The Earth waited for three years, and then broke again in September 2007 at 1300 km SE of the 2004 event producing a twin earthquake of magnitudes of 8.5 and 7.9 at an interval of 12 hours, leaving a seismic gap of about 600 km between the second and third earthquake, the Sumatra Seismic Gap. Seismological and geodetic studies suggest that this gap is fully locked and may break any time. In order to study the seismic and tsunami risk in this locked region, a deep seismic reflection survey (Tsunami Investigation Deep Evaluation Seismic -TIDES) was carried out in May 2009 using the CGGVeritas vessel Geowave Champion towing a 15 long streamer, the longest ever used during a seismic survey, to image the nature of the subducting plate and associated features, including the seismogenic zone, from seafloor down to 50 km depth. A total of 1700 km of deep seismic reflection data were acquired. Three dip lines traverse the Sumatra subduction zone; one going through the Sumatra Seismic Gap, one crossing the region that broke during the 2007 great earthquake, and one going through the aseismic zone. These three dip profiles should provide insight about the locking mechanism and help us to understand why an earthquake occurs in one zone and not in aseismic zone. A strike-line was shot in the forearc basin connecting the locked zone with broken zone profiles, which should provide insight about barriers that might have stopped propagation of 2007 earthquake rupture further northward.

Gas Reservoir Identification Basing on Deep Learning of Seismic-print Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, J.; Wu, S.; He, X.

2016-12-01

Reservoir identification based on seismic data analysis is the core task in oil and gas geophysical exploration. The essence of reservoir identification is to identify the properties of rock pore fluid. We developed a novel gas reservoir identification method named seismic-print analysis by imitation of the vocal-print analysis techniques in speaker identification. The term "seismic-print" is referred to the characteristics of the seismic waveform which can identify determinedly the property of the geological objectives, for instance, a nature gas reservoir. Seismic-print can be characterized by one or a few parameters named as seismic-print parameters. It has been proven that gas reservoirs are of characteristics of negative 1-order cepstrum coefficient anomaly and Positive 2-order cepstrum coefficient anomaly, concurrently. The method is valid for sandstone gas reservoir, carbonate reservoir and shale gas reservoirs, and the accuracy rate may reach up to 90%. There are two main problems to deal with in the application of seismic-print analysis method. One is to identify the "ripple" of a reservoir on the seismogram, and another is to construct the mapping relationship between the seismic-print and the gas reservoirs. Deep learning developed in recent years is of the ability to reveal the complex non-linear relationship between the attribute and the data, and of ability to extract automatically the features of the objective from the data. Thus, deep learning could been used to deal with these two problems. There are lots of algorithms to carry out deep learning. The algorithms can be roughly divided into two categories: Belief Networks Network (DBNs) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). DBNs is a probabilistic generative model, which can establish a joint distribution of the observed data and tags. CNN is a feedforward neural network, which can be used to extract the 2D structure feature of the input data. Both DBNs and CNN can be used to deal with seismic data

Detectable Seismic Consequences of the Interaction of a Primordial Black Hole with Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Yang; Hanasoge, Shravan; Tromp, Jeroen; Pretorius, Frans

2012-05-01

Galaxies observed today are likely to have evolved from density perturbations in the early universe. Perturbations that exceeded some critical threshold are conjectured to have undergone gravitational collapse to form primordial black holes (PBHs) at a range of masses. Such PBHs serve as candidates for cold dark matter, and their detection would shed light on conditions in the early universe. Here, we propose a mechanism to search for transits of PBHs through/nearby Earth by studying the associated seismic waves. Using a spectral-element method, we simulate and visualize this seismic wave field in Earth's interior. We predict the emergence of two unique signatures, namely, a wave that would arrive almost simultaneously everywhere on Earth's free surface and the excitation of unusual spheroidal modes with a characteristic frequency spacing in free oscillation spectra. These qualitative characteristics are unaffected by the speed or proximity of the PBH trajectory. The seismic energy deposited by a proximal M PBH = 1015 g PBH is comparable to a magnitude M w = 4 earthquake. The non-seismic collateral damage due to the actual impact of such small PBHs with Earth would be negligible. Unfortunately, the expected collision rate is very low even if PBHs constituted all of dark matter, at ~10-7 yr-1, and since the rate scales as 1/M PBH, fortunately encounters with larger, Earth-threatening PBHs are exceedingly unlikely. However, the rate at which non-colliding close encounters of PBHs could be detected by seismic activity alone is roughly two orders of magnitude larger—that is once every hundred thousand years—than the direct collision rate.

South-Central Tibetan Seismicity from HiCLIMB Seismic Array Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, S.; Nabelek, J.; Braunmiller, J.

2010-12-01

The HiCLIMB broadband passive seismic experiment (2002-2005) operated 233 sites along a 800-km long north-south array extending from the Himalayan foreland into the Central Tibetan Plateau and a flanking 350x350 km lateral array in southern Tibet and eastern Nepal. We use data from the experiment’s second phase (June 2004 to August 2005), when stations operated in Tibet, to locate earthquakes in south-central Tibet, a region with no permanent seismic network where little is known about its seismicity. We used the Antelope software for automatic detection and arrival time picking, event-arrival association and event location. Requiring a low detection and event association threshold initially resulted in ~110,000 declared events. The large database size rendered manual inspection unfeasible and we developed automated post-processing modules to weed out spurious detections and erroneous phase and event associations, which stemmed, e.g., from multiple coincident earthquakes within the array or misplaced seismicity from the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake. The resulting database contains ~32,000 events within 5° distance from the closest station. We consider ~7,600 events defined by more than 30 P and S arrivals well located and discuss them here. Seismicity in the subset correlates well with mapped faults and structures seen on satellite imagery attesting to high location quality. This is confirmed by non-systematic, kilometer-scale differences between automatic and manual locations for selected events. Seismicity in south-central Tibet is intense north of the Yarlung-Tsangpo Suture. Almost 90% of events occurred in the Lhasa Terrane mainly along north-south trending rifts. Vigorous activity (>4,800 events) accompanied two M>6 earthquakes in the Payang Basin (84°E), ~100 km west of the linear array. The Tangra-Yum Co (86.5°E) and Pumqu-Xianza (88°E) rifts were very active (~1,000 events) without dominant main shocks indicating swarm like-behavior possibly related

Seismic-wave attenuation associated with crustal faults in the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, R.M.; Mooney, W.D.

1990-01-01

The attenuation of upper crustal seismic waves that are refracted with a velocity of about 6 kilometers per second varies greatly among profiles in the area of the New Madrid seismic zone in the central Mississippi Valley. The waves that have the strongest attenuation pass through the seismic trend along the axis of the Reelfoot rift in the area of the Blytheville arch. Defocusing of the waves in a low-velocity zone and/ or seismic scattering and absorption could cause the attenuation; these effects are most likely associated with the highly deformed rocks along the arch. Consequently, strong seismic-wave attenuation may be a useful criterion for identifying seismogenic fault zones.

Using seismic and tilt measurements simultaneously to forecast eruptions of silicic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, Jurgen; Collinson, Amy; Mothes, Patricia

2016-04-01

Independent interpretations of seismic swarms and tilt measurement on active silicic volcanoes have been successfully used to assess their eruption potential. Swarms of low-frequency seismic events have been associated with brittle failure or stick-slip motion of magma during ascent and have been used to estimate qualitatively the magma ascent rate which typically accelerates before lava dome collapses. Tilt signals are extremely sensitive indicators for volcano deformation and have been often modelled and interpreted as inflation or deflation of a shallow magma reservoir. Here we show that tilt in many cases does not represent inflation or deflation but is directly linked to magma ascent rate.This talk aims to combine these two independent observations, seismicity and deformation, to design and implement a forecasting tool that can be deployed in volcano observatories on an operational level.

Excitation of seismic waves by a tornado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valovcin, A.; Tanimoto, T.; Twardzik, C.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes are among the most common natural disasters to occur in the United States. Various methods are currently used in tornado forecasting, including surface weather stations, weather balloons and satellite and Doppler radar. These methods work for detecting possible locations of tornadoes and funnel clouds, but knowing when a tornado has touched down still strongly relies on reports from spotters. Studying tornadoes seismically offers an opportunity to know when a tornado has touched down without requiring an eyewitness report. With the installation of Earthscope's Transportable Array (TA), there have been an increased number of tornadoes that have come within close range of seismometers. We have identified seismic signals corresponding to three tornadoes that occurred in 2011 in the central US. These signals were recorded by the TA station closest to each of the tornado tracks. For each tornado, the amplitudes of the seismic signals increase when the storm is in contact with the ground, and continue until the tornado lifts off some time later. This occurs at both high and low frequencies. In this study we will model the seismic signal generated by a tornado at low frequencies (below 0.1 Hz). We will begin by modeling the signal from the Joplin tornado, an EF5 rated tornado which occurred in Missouri on May 22, 2011. By approximating the tornado as a vertical force, we model the generated signal as the tornado moves along its track and changes in strength. By modeling the seismic waveform generated by a tornado, we can better understand the seismic-excitation process. It could also provide a way to quantitatively compare tornadoes. Additional tornadoes to model include the Calumet-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie (CEPG) and Chickasa-Blanchard-Newcastle (CBN) tornadoes, both of which occurred on May 24, 2011 in Oklahoma.

Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Investigating the Concept of Using Airglow Measurements to Detect Seismicity on Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenda, Balthasar; Lognonné, Philippe; Komjathy, Attila; Banerdt, Bruce; Cutts, Jim; Soret, Lauriane; Jackson, Jennifer

2017-04-01

The internal structure and dynamics of Venus are poorly constrained by observations. Seismology is among the best candidates for probing the interior of the planet, and it would also provide indispensable information about the present-day tectonic activity of Venus. However, due to the extreme surface temperatures, a long-duration seismic station seems to be beyond the technical capabilities achievable today. Nonetheless, the thick and dense atmosphere, which strongly couples with the ground, gives rise to the attractive option of detecting seismic waves from quakes within the atmosphere itself (Garcia et al., 2005, Lognonné and Johnson, 2007, 2015) using in-situ or remote-sensing measurements (Cutts et al., 2015). Here, we consider the bright airglow emission of O2 at 1.27 μm on the nightside of Venus and we model the intensity fluctuations induced by Venus quakes. Synthetic seismograms in the airglow layer, at 90-120 km altitude, are computed using normal-mode summation for a fully coupled solid planet-atmosphere system, including the effects of molecular relaxation of CO2 and a radiative boundary condition at the top of the atmosphere (Lognonné et al., 2016). The corresponding variations in the volumetric emission rate, calculated for realistic background intensities of the airglow (Soret et al., 2012), are then vertically integrated to reproduce the signals that would be seen from orbit. The noise level of existing airglow cameras suggests that the Rayleigh waves generated by quakes of magnitude 5 and above occurring on the nightside of the planet may be detectable up to about 60° in epicentral distance. A significant advantage of this technique is that a single orbiting camera may be sufficient to serve the role of a seismic network. By identifying and tracking the waves it is indeed possible to locate the source, estimate the magnitude and measure the horizontal surface-wave propagation velocities on Venus. In particular, it is expected that this would

On the physical links between the dynamics of the Izu Islands 2000 dike intrusions and the statistics of the induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passarelli, Luigi; Rivalta, Eleonora; Simone, Cesca; Aoki, Yosuke

2014-05-01

The emplacement of magma-filled dikes often induce abundant seismicity in the surrounding host rocks. Most of the earthquakes are thought to occur close to the propagating tip (or edges, in 3D) of the dike, where stresses are concentrated. The resulting seismicity often appears as a swarm, controlled mainly by dike-induced stresses and stressing rate and by other factors, such as the background stressing rate, tectonic setting, regional stresses and tectonic history. The spatial distribution and focal mechanisms of the seismicity bear information on the interaction of the dike stress field and the tectonic setting of the area. The seismicity accompanying the intrusion of a dike is usually characterized by weak events, for which it is difficult to calculate the focal mechanisms. Therefore, only for a few well-recorded dike intrusions a catalog of focal mechanisms, allowing to perform a robust statistical analysis, is available. The 2000 dike intrusion at Miyakejima is in this sense an outstanding case, as about 18000 seismic events were recorded in a time span of three months. This seismic swarm was one of the most energetic ever recorded with five M>6 earthquakes. For this swarm a catalog of 1500 focal mechanisms is avalable (NIED, Japan). We perform a clustering analysis of the focal mechanism solutions, in order to infer the most frequent focal mechanism features prior to the intrusion (pre-diking period) and during the co-diking period. As previously suggested, we find that the dike stress field modified substantially the pre-existing seismicity pattern, by shadowing some non-optimally oriented strike-slip structures and increasing seismic rate on optimally oriented strike-slip tectonic structures. Alongside, during the co-diking period a large number of normal and oblique-normal faulting were observed. These events cannot be explained within the tectonics of the intrusion area. We suggest they are directly generated by the intense stress field induced at the

Very-long-period seismic signals - filling the gap between deformation and seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, Jurgen; Smith, Paddy

2013-04-01

Good broadband seismic sensors are capable to record seismic transients with dominant wavelengths of several tens or even hundreds of seconds. This allows us to generate a multi-component record of seismic volcanic events that are located in between the conventional high to low-frequency seismic spectrum and deformation signals. With a much higher temporal resolution and accuracy than e.g. GPS records, these signals fill the gap between seismicity and deformation studies. In this contribution we will review the non-trivial processing steps necessary to retrieve ground deformation from the original velocity seismogram and explore which role the resulting displacement signals have in the analysis of volcanic events. We use examples from Soufriere Hills volcano in Montserrat, West Indies, to discuss the benefits and shortcomings of such methods regarding new insights into volcanic processes.

Spike Phase Locking in CA1 Pyramidal Neurons depends on Background Conductance and Firing Rate

PubMed Central

Broiche, Tilman; Malerba, Paola; Dorval, Alan D.; Borisyuk, Alla; Fernandez, Fernando R.; White, John A.

2012-01-01

Oscillatory activity in neuronal networks correlates with different behavioral states throughout the nervous system, and the frequency-response characteristics of individual neurons are believed to be critical for network oscillations. Recent in vivo studies suggest that neurons experience periods of high membrane conductance, and that action potentials are often driven by membrane-potential fluctuations in the living animal. To investigate the frequency-response characteristics of CA1 pyramidal neurons in the presence of high conductance and voltage fluctuations, we performed dynamic-clamp experiments in rat hippocampal brain slices. We drove neurons with noisy stimuli that included a sinusoidal component ranging, in different trials, from 0.1 to 500 Hz. In subsequent data analysis, we determined action potential phase-locking profiles with respect to background conductance, average firing rate, and frequency of the sinusoidal component. We found that background conductance and firing rate qualitatively change the phase-locking profiles of CA1 pyramidal neurons vs. frequency. In particular, higher average spiking rates promoted band-pass profiles, and the high-conductance state promoted phase-locking at frequencies well above what would be predicted from changes in the membrane time constant. Mechanistically, spike-rate adaptation and frequency resonance in the spike-generating mechanism are implicated in shaping the different phase-locking profiles. Our results demonstrate that CA1 pyramidal cells can actively change their synchronization properties in response to global changes in activity associated with different behavioral states. PMID:23055508

Effects of Bounded Fault on Seismic Radiation and Rupture Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, H.; Yang, H.

2016-12-01

It has been suggested that narrow rectangle fault may emit stopping phases that can largely affect seismic radiation and thus rupture propagation, e.g., generation of short-duration pulse-like ruptures. Here we investigate the effects of narrow along-dip rectangle fault (analogously to 2015 Nepal earthquake with 200 km * 40 km) on seismic radiation and rupture propagation through numerical modeling in the framework of the linear slip-weakening friction law. First, we found the critical slip-weakening distance Dc may largely affect the seismic radiation and other source parameters, such as rupture speed, final slip and stress drop. Fixing all other uniform parameters, decreasing Dc could decrease the duration time of slip rate and increase the peak slip rate, thus increase the seismic radiation energy spectrum of slip acceleration. In addition, smaller Dc could lead to larger rupture speed (close to S wave velocity), but smaller stress drop and final slip. The results show that Dc may control the efficiency of far-field radiation. Furthermore, the duration time of slip rate at locations close to boundaries is 1.5 - 4 s less than that in the center of the fault. Such boundary effect is especially remarkable for smaller Dc due to the smaller average duration time of slip rate, which could increase the high-frequency radiation energy and impede low-frequency component near the boundaries from the analysis of energy spectrum of slip acceleration. These results show high frequency energy tends to be radiated near the fault boundaries as long as Dc is small enough. In addition, ruptures are fragile and easy to self-arrest if the width of the seismogenic zone is very narrow. In other words, the sizes of nucleation zone need to be larger to initiate runaway ruptures. Our results show the critical sizes of nucleation zones increase as the widths of seismogenic zones decrease.

Rapid response, monitoring, and mitigation of induced seismicity near Greeley, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeck, William; Sheehan, A.F; Benz, Harley M.; Weingarten, Matthew; Nakai, J

2016-01-01

On 1 June 2014 (03:35 UTC), an Mw 3.2 earthquake occurred in Weld County, Colorado, a historically aseismic area of the Denver–Julesburg basin. Weld County is a prominent area of oil and gas development, including many high‐rate class II wastewater injection wells. In the days following the earthquake, the University of Colorado, with support from the U.S. Geological Survey and Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology–Portable Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere, rapidly deployed six seismic stations to characterize the seismicity associated with the 1 June earthquake (the Greeley sequence) and to investigate its possible connection to wastewater disposal. The spatial and temporal proximity of earthquakes to a high‐rate wastewater disposal well strongly suggests these earthquakes were induced. Scientific communication between the university, state agencies, and the energy industry led to rapid mitigation strategies to reduce the occurrence of further earthquakes. Mitigation efforts included implementing a temporary moratorium on injection at the well, cementing the bottom portion of the disposal well to minimize hydrologic connectivity between the disposal formation and the underlying crystalline basement, and subsequently allowing injection to resume at lower rates. Following the resumption of wastewater disposal, microseismicity was closely monitored for both increases in earthquake rate and magnitude. Following mitigation efforts, between 13 August 2014 and 29 December 2015, no earthquakes larger than M 1.5 occurred near the Greeley sequence. This study demonstrates that a detailed and rapid characterization of a seismic sequence in space and time relative to disposal, combined with collaboration and communication between scientists, regulators, and industry, can lead to objective and actionable mitigation efforts that potentially reduced the rate of earthquakes and the possible generation of larger earthquakes.

Swept Impact Seismic Technique (SIST)