Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah

2009-01-01

An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify high water levels throughout the bay, a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs and empirical models and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise influences. Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing concern. In the North Bay, wetland survival and developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the bay-ward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face this risk to some degree. For the Bay as a whole, as early as 2050 under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Low GI Food with Barley in Space Foods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katayama, Naomi; Sugimoto, Manabu; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Kihara, Makoto; Yamashita, Masamichi; Space Agriculture Task Force

The construction of the life-support system to perform space, moon base, Mars emigration is demanded. The space foods will play a very important role of life support on this occasion. Particularly, in environment of the microgravity, our metabolism becomes less than the face of the Earth. The management of the blood sugar level is very important. We need to eat the meal which will be rise in blood sugar level slowly. The barley which includes much water-soluble dietary fibers is helpful to make low GI space food. After eating 30% barley with unpolished rice, blood sugar level was rise slowly. The cooking process is very important to our body in thinking about digestion and absorption. Soft foods, long-heated foods and grind-foods are easy to digest. After eating these-foods, our blood sugar level will rise, easily. We introduce the space foods with 30% wheat that the blood sugar level is hard to rising.

Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

2017-12-01

For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

Preparing Norfolk Area Students for America's Second Highest Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, R. R.

2017-12-01

The nonprofit Elizabeth River Project located in Hampton Roads, Virginia was awarded a 3-year national NOAA Environmental Literacy award 2016-2019 to teach 21,000 K-12 youth how to help restore one of the most polluted rivers on the Chesapeake Bay and to help create a resilient community that is facing impacts from the rising seas and changing climate. Through a community collaboration, partners are also creating perhaps the nation's first Youth Resilience Strategy with a vision, goals, best practices and resources on engaging youth to help create resilient cities facing environmental and economic changes. During Year 1, 7,000 elementary students held field investigations aboard the floating classroom Learning Barge and at Paradise Creek Nature Park and helped restore wetland restoration sites. Students performed inquiry based investigations, learned stewardship actions to help create resilience and showed a 40% increase in knowledge. Year 1 best practices in teaching resilience include youth: getting out of the classroom, discovering how rain water travels, performing bioblitzes and water quality testing, engaging in hands-on GreenSTEM activities, using investigation tools, creating innovative solutions to retain and reuse rain water, creating art and voicing their opinions on creating a resilient community.Lessons learned include developing engaging inquiry questions based on creating a resilient community. These included: "What are the impact of rising tides?", "How can sea level rise affect river animals?", "How can we be safe and prepare for extreme weather and flooding as the sea level rises?", "How has the way people worked with the Elizabeth River changed?", "How could sea level rise affect the Elizabeth River's water quality?", "How hot might the air temperature get by 2050 and what can we do to keep it cooler?", "What does this park show us about sea level rise and other ways our climate is changing?", "How do trees help make our park and community resilient?", "How will the rising sea and climate change impact the water quality and river animals?", and "How will sea level rise affect our wetlands and our communities?"

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-12-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-01-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE; Version 1.0): web-based tools to assess the impact of sea level rise in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn, Paul; Strong, David; Swain, Eric; Decker, Jeremy

2013-01-01

South Florida's Greater Everglades area is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, due to its rich endowment of animal and plant species and its heavily populated urban areas along the coast. Rising sea levels are expected to have substantial impacts on inland flooding, the depth and extent of surge from coastal storms, the degradation of water supplies by saltwater intrusion, and the integrity of plant and animal habitats. Planners and managers responsible for mitigating these impacts require advanced tools to help them more effectively identify areas at risk. The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE) Web site has been developed to address these needs by providing more convenient access to projections from models that forecast the effects of sea level rise on surface water and groundwater, the extent of surge and resulting economic losses from coastal storms, and the distribution of habitats. IMMAGE not only provides an advanced geographic information system (GIS) interface to support decision making, but also includes topic-based modules that explain and illustrate key concepts for nontechnical users. The purpose of this report is to familiarize both technical and nontechnical users with the IMMAGE Web site and its various applications.

Analysis of Groundwater Anomalies Estimated by GRACE and GLDAS Satellite-based Hydrological Model in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotfata, A.; Ambinakudige, S.

2017-12-01

Coastal regions face a higher risk of flooding. A rise in sea-level increases flooding chances in low-lying areas. A major concern is the effect of sea-level rise on the depth of the fresh water/salt water interface in the aquifers of the coastal regions. A sea-level change rise impacts the hydrological system of the aquifers. Salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers increase water table levels. Flooding prone areas in the coast are at a higher risk of salt water intrusion. The Gulf coast is one of the most vulnerable flood areas due to its natural weather patterns. There is not yet a local assessment of the relation between groundwater level and sea-level rising. This study investigates the projected sea-level rise models and the anomalous groundwater level during January 2002 to December 2016. We used the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) satellite data in the analysis. We accounted the leakage error and the measurement error in GRACE data. GLDAS data was used to calculate the groundwater storage from the total water storage estimated using GRACE data (ΔGW=ΔTWS (soil moisture, surface water, groundwater, and canopy water) - ΔGLDAS (soil moisture, surface water, and canopy water)). The preliminary results indicate that the total water storage is increasing in parts of the Gulf of Mexico. GRACE data show high soil wetness and groundwater levels in Mississippi, Alabama and Texas coasts. Because sea-level rise increases the probability of flooding in the Gulf coast and affects the groundwater, we will analyze probable interactions between sea-level rise and groundwater in the study area. To understand regional sea-level rise patterns, we will investigate GRACE Ocean data along the Gulf coasts. We will quantify ocean total water storage, its salinity, and its relationship with the groundwater level variations in the Gulf coast.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-10-22

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Prostate specific antigen velocity as a measure of the natural history of prostate cancer: defining a 'rapid riser' subset.

PubMed

Nam, R K; Klotz, L H; Jewett, M A; Danjoux, C; Trachtenberg, J

1998-01-01

To study the rate of change in prostate specific antigen (PSA velocity) in patients with prostate cancer initially managed by 'watchful waiting'. Serial PSA levels were determined in 141 patients with prostate cancer confirmed by biopsy, who were initially managed expectantly and enrolled between May 1990 and December 1995. Sixty-seven patients eventually underwent surgery (mean age 59 years) because they chose it (the decision for surgery was not based on PSA velocity). A cohort of 74 patients remained on 'watchful waiting' (mean age 69 years). Linear regression and logarithmic transformations were used to segregate those patients who showed a rapid rise, defined as a > 50% rise in PSA per year (or a doubling time of < 2 years) and designated 'rapid risers'. An initial analysis based on a minimum of two PSA values showed that 31% were rapid risers. Only 15% of patients with more than three serial PSA determinations over > or = 6 months showed a rapid rise in PSA level. There was no advantage of log-linear analysis over linear regression models. Three serial PSA determinations over > or = 6 months in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer identifies a subset (15%) of patients with a rapidly rising PSA level. Shorter PSA surveillance with fewer PSA values may falsely identify patients with rapid rises in PSA level. However, further follow-up is required to determine if a rapid rise in PSA level identifies a subset of patients with an aggressive biological phenotype who are either still curable or who have already progressed to incurability through metastatic disease.

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Foster, Tammy E.; Stolen, Eric D.; Hall, Carlton R.; Schaub, Ronald; Duncan, Brean W.; Hunt, Danny K.; Drese, John H.

2017-01-01

Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC’s land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling. PMID:28796807

Assessing sea-level rise impact on saltwater intrusion into the root zone of a geo-typical area in coastal east-central Florida.

PubMed

Xiao, Han; Wang, Dingbao; Medeiros, Stephen C; Hagen, Scott C; Hall, Carlton R

2018-07-15

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) into root zone in low-lying coastal areas can affect the survival and spatial distribution of various vegetation species by altering plant communities and the wildlife habitats they support. In this study, a baseline model was developed based on FEMWATER to simulate the monthly variation of root zone salinity of a geo-typical area located at the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) of coastal east-central Florida (USA) in 2010. Based on the developed and calibrated baseline model, three diagnostic FEMWATER models were developed to predict the extent of SWI into root zone by modifying the boundary values representing the rising sea level based on various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios projected for 2080. The simulation results indicated that the extent of SWI would be insignificant if SLR is either low (23.4cm) or intermediate (59.0cm), but would be significant if SLR is high (119.5cm) in that infiltration/diffusion of overtopping seawater in coastal low-lying areas can greatly increase root zone salinity level, since the sand dunes may fail to prevent the landward migration of seawater because the waves of the rising sea level can reach and pass over the crest under high (119.5cm) SLR scenario. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Marinova, Natasha; Lowe, Jason A; Brown, Sally; Vellinga, Pier; de Gusmão, Diogo; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S J

2011-01-13

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss—with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise.

PubMed

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss-with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Berkowitz, Paul; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Logan, Joshua B.

2013-01-01

Two inundation events in 2011 underscored the potential for elevated water levels to damage infrastructure and affect terrestrial ecosystems on the low-lying Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The goal of this study was to compare passive "bathtub" inundation models based on geographic information systems (GIS) to those that include dynamic water levels caused by wave-induced set-up and run-up for two end-member island morphologies: Midway, a classic atoll with islands on the shallow (2-8 m) atoll rim and a deep, central lagoon; and Laysan, which is characterized by a deep (20-30 m) atoll rim and an island at the center of the atoll. Vulnerability to elevated water levels was assessed using hindcast wind and wave data to drive coupled physics-based numerical wave, current, and water-level models for the atolls. The resulting model data were then used to compute run-up elevations using a parametric run-up equation under both present conditions and future sea-level-rise scenarios. In both geomorphologies, wave heights and wavelengths adjacent to the island shorelines increased more than three times and four times, respectively, with increasing values of sea-level rise, as more deep-water wave energy could propagate over the atoll rim and larger wind-driven waves could develop on the atoll. Although these increases in water depth resulted in decreased set-up along the islands’ shorelines, the larger wave heights and longer wavelengths due to sea-level rise increased the resulting wave-induced run-up. Run-up values were spatially heterogeneous and dependent on the direction of incident wave direction, bathymetry, and island configuration. Island inundation was modeled to increase substantially when wave-driven effects were included, suggesting that inundation and impacts to infrastructure and terrestrial habitats will occur at lower values of predicted sea-level rise, and thus sooner in the 21st century, than suggested by passive GIS-based "bathtub" inundation models. Lastly, observations and the modeling results suggest that classic atolls with islands on a shallow atoll rim are more susceptible to the combined effects of sea-level rise and wave-driven inundation than atolls characterized by a deep atoll rim.

Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Niazi, Saïda

2008-04-01

The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a 'best estimate' of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a 'worst-case' scenario, obtained by combining the 'economic development first' scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a 'best-case' scenario, by combining the 'sustainability first' scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise. Results indicate that 24% and 59% of the area will be lost by flooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land, and the natural ecosystem. Shoreline erosion will affect 50% and 70% of the total area in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Potential strategies to ameliorate the impact of seawater inundation include: wetland preservation; beach nourishment at tourist resorts; and the afforestation of dunes. As this coast is planned to become one of the most developed tourist resorts in Morocco by 2010, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning and development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, are recommended for the region.

An ecological model of the habitat mosaic in estuarine nursery areas: Part II – Projecting effects of sea level rise on fish production

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the response of fish populations to habitat change mediated by sea level rise (SLR) is a key component of ecosystem-based management. Yet, no direct link has been established between habitat change due to SLR and fish population production. Here we take a coupled ...

Influence of tidal range on the stability of coastal marshland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2010-01-01

Early comparisons between rates of vertical accretion and sea level rise across marshes in different tidal ranges inspired a paradigm that marshes in high tidal range environments are more resilient to sea level rise than marshes in low tidal range environments. We use field-based observations to propose a relationship between vegetation growth and tidal range and to adapt two numerical models of marsh evolution to explicitly consider the effect of tidal range on the response of the marsh platform channel network system to accelerating rates of sea level rise. We find that the stability of both the channel network and vegetated platform increases with increasing tidal range. Our results support earlier hypotheses that suggest enhanced stability can be directly attributable to a vegetation growth range that expands with tidal range. Accretion rates equilibrate to the rate of sea level rise in all experiments regardless of tidal range, suggesting that comparisons between accretion rate and tidal range will not likely produce a significant relationship. Therefore, our model results offer an explanation to widely inconsistent field-based attempts to quantify this relationship while still supporting the long-held paradigm that high tidal range marshes are indeed more stable.

The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

2017-12-01

Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA.

PubMed

Rice, Karen C; Hong, Bo; Shen, Jian

2012-11-30

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen; Bo Hong,; Jian Shen,

2012-01-01

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Global Sea Level Rise and its Impact Estimation Model by Beach Mechanics, GDP, and Shoreline Length using Big Data Approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, A. A.

2016-12-01

Existing research has shown consistent increase in global sea levels due to warming of the climate; since 1870, average global sea level has risen by about 20 cm. There are processes that scientists and coastal engineers can follow to estimate the erosion and flooding risk impacts for specific locations based on historical data. However, there are no methods available to assess the risk impacts for locations where little research has been conducted. In this study, we introduce a prototype to better predict sea level change and land loss using big data technology. Our approach combines cluster analysis and artificial intelligence to classify and calculate impacts for locations worldwide. Data from 235 locations (89 countries) on sea level change was gathered from NOAA data investigations and other research organizations, including beach profile data, shoreline length data, and GDP data. The rate of sea level rise varies from -18 to 21 mm/yr. We divide the data into 4 groups (Group A: +0 to 9mm, Group B: +10 to +20mm, Group C: -0 to -9mm, and Group D:-10 to -20mm). Our research focuses on types A and B only since both reflect increase on sea level rise. We find the correlation between the sea level rise and factors such as the economic parameter (α), sea level rise height (h), beach breaker wave (Hb), gravitational constant (g), period of wave (T), foreshore slope (i), and sand sizes (D). We conclude the sea level rise impact ($ lost) can be more scientifically and precisely predicted using our model.

Modeling tidal marsh distribution with sea-level rise: evaluating the role of vegetation, sediment, and upland habitat in marsh resiliency.

PubMed

Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Morris, James T; Stralberg, Diana; Parker, V Thomas; Kelly, Maggi

2014-01-01

Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level rise. These results also emphasize the importance of adjacent uplands for long-term marsh survival and incorporating such areas in conservation planning efforts.

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus

2015-08-01

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Soil organic matter decomposition follows plant productivity response to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Peter; Jensen, Kai; Megonigal, James Patrick

2015-04-01

The accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) is an important mechanism for many tidal wetlands to keep pace with sea-level rise. SOM accumulation is governed by the rates of production and decomposition of organic matter. While plant productivity responses to sea-level rise are well understood, far less is known about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated sea-level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea-level rise on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian Global Change Research Wetland, a micro tidal brackish marsh in Maryland, US. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated using a stable carbon isotope approach. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to varying flood duration over a 35 cm range in surface elevation in unplanted mesocoms. In the presence of plants, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (p≤0.01, R2≥0.59). We conclude that rates of soil carbon loss through decomposition are driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If our result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling carbon sequestration and marsh accretion in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Do Rising Levels of Qualification Alter Work Ethic, Work Orientation and Organizational Commitment for the Worse? Evidence from the UK, 1985?2001

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Michael

2005-01-01

Implications of rising levels of qualification for work attitudes - a hitherto neglected area in the debate on over-education - are examined. Theories of post-industrialism predicted that the spiralling educational requirements of an information-based economy would undercut the Work Ethic and intensify employee demands for work roles built around…

The Climate Science Special Report: Rising Seas and Changing Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

GMSL has risen by about 16-21 cm since 1900. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s, and global mean sea-surface temperature increased 0.7°C/century between 1900 to 2016. Human activity contributed substantially to generating a rate of GMSL rise since 1900 faster than during any preceding century in at least 2800 years. A new set of six sea-level rise scenarios, spanning a range from 30 cm to 250 cm of 21st century GMSL rise, were developed for the CSSR. The lower scenario is based on linearly extrapolating the past two decades' rate of rise. The upper scenario is informed by literature estimates of maximum physically plausible values, observations indicating the onset of marine ice sheet instability in parts of West Antarctica, and modeling of ice-cliff and ice-shelf instability mechanisms. The new scenarios include localized projections along US coastlines. There is significant variability around the US, with rates of rise likely greater than GMSL rise in the US Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. Under scenarios involving extreme Antarctic contributions, regional rise would be greater than GMSL rise along almost all US coastlines. Historical sea-level rise has already driven a 5- to 10-fold increase in minor tidal flooding in several US coastal cities since the 1960s. Under the CSSR's Intermediate sea-level rise scenario (1.0 m of GMSL rise in 2100) , a majority of NOAA tide gauge locations will by 2040 experience the historical 5-year coastal flood about 5 times per year. Ocean changes are not limited to rising sea levels. Ocean pH is decreasing at a rate that may be unparalleled in the last 66 million years. Along coastlines, ocean acidification can be enhanced by changes in the upwelling (particularly along the US Pacific Coast); by episodic, climate change-enhanced increases in freshwater input (particularly along the US Atlantic Coast); and by the enhancement of biological respiration by nutrient runoff. Climate models project a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under high-emissions scenarios. Any slowdown will reduce ocean heat and carbon absorption and raise sea levels off the northeastern US A full AMOC collapse, improbable in the current century, would lead to an additional 0.5 m of sea-level rise and offset 0-2°C of warming over the US.

Adapting to Sea Level Rise to the Year 2100 and Beyond in the State of Florida, USA: A Regional Approach Based upon Common Vulnerabilities and the Utility of Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, R. W.; Harlem, P. W.; Meeder, J.

2014-12-01

We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Coastal submergence was emulated using a 'bathtub model' and rising sea level associated with an atmospheric temperature increase of +1 oC to +4 oC (see Levermann et al. [1]). Simulation results are organized into seven regions, each representing an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (9% to 30% land loss), higher (16 to 68% land loss) and highest (48% to 97% land loss). This grouping provides a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. Our bathtub model assumes Florida terrain is simply submerged as the shoreline migrates across a static landscape without change in the physical and biological materials subject to marine transgression. However, geologic studies of past and present Florida shorelines indicate the rate of rise is as important as the magnitude when predicting coastal response. To determine the utility of the bathtub model as a representative simulation of Florida's response to future sea level rise, we considered Florida's coastal response to varying rates of sea level rise over the last 14,000 years. Available data clearly demonstrate predicted rates of sea level rise will result in widespread submergence; the rate of rise will be too fast to be offset by the stabilizing forces of biogenic or physical sediment accumulation. Hence the magnitude of land loss and associated shoreline retreat in each of the seven Florida regions - and likely other coastal zones in the southeast U.S. - will be solely a function of topographic elevation and can therefore be reasonably forecast using a bathtub model. While our focus is on Florida's coastal counties, we recognize in some regions the effects of sea level rise will extend further inland. In these areas, the regional boundaries could be expanded to include adjacent non-coastal counties. However, differences in the perception of risk and associated vulnerability between coastal and inland counties may complicate timely collaboration. References: [1] A. Levermann et al. (2013), The Multi-Millennial Sea-Level Commitment of Global Warming, doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.

GIS-based vulnerability assessment to sea level rise of Al Hoceima Bay (Moroccan Mediterranean): towards an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Snoussi, M.

2013-12-01

In the context of coastal vulnerability to climate change and human impacts, integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is an increasingly relevant process for the sustainable development of coastal areas, in which scientific input plays a vital role. In the Mediterranean Basin, projected increases in sea level rise and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events pose a major challenge for the management of low-lying coastal ecosystems and human settlements. The bay of Al Hoceima is one of the least studied and largest low-lying coastal areas of the Moroccan Mediterranean coast, and is exposed to the effects of sea level rise and storms. The coast is also a touristic area and one of the most important economic assets in the region. Physical coastal vulnerability assessments, determination of setback lines, and evaluation of coastal aquifer vulnerability to sea level rise are among the principal tools used to help decision makers in such a context. Here we quantified, in the context of sea level rise: (1) the physical vulnerability of the coastline, by developing a standard index methodology based on the five most relevant physical indices for local-scale vulnerability analysis, for a total of 822 50m/50m coastal cells; (2) coastal setback lines, based on shoreline evolutionary trends adjusted to sea level rise scenarios using a digital shoreline Analysis System (DSAS); and (3) the vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer, using a modified GALDIT index (ground water occurrence, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, depth to groundwater level above the sea; distance from the shore; impact of existing status of sea water intrusion in the area; and thickness of the aquifer), following an integrated GIS approach. We find that 41% of the studied coastline is highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and extreme weather events; 60% of the coastline is in retreat (with rates varying between -2m and -0.2m/y), 30% is in dynamic equilibrium (rates of -0.2 to +0.2m/y), and 10% is gradually prograding (with accretion rates of +0.2 to +0.8m/y). Setback line analysis indicates a potential retreat of the coastline of up to -90m by 2050 in the most vulnerable sectors. We find that the aquifer is subject to a moderate to high risk for at least half of its total area, and that for an assumed sea level rise of 0.5 m, the vulnerable surface area will increase by up to two times. The assessment of coastal erosion under different scenarios of sea level rise showed that, if no action is taken, most of the beaches are likely to disappear from the coupled effects of erosion and inundation. These findings will have direct repercussions for coastal development programs over both the short and long terms. The final results aim to provide coastal managers with tools to help the implementation of ICZM.

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Organic matter content and particle size modifications in mangrove sediments as responses to sea level rise.

PubMed

Sanders, Christian J; Smoak, Joseph M; Waters, Mathew N; Sanders, Luciana M; Brandini, Nilva; Patchineelam, Sambasiva R

2012-06-01

Mangroves sediments contain large reservoirs of organic material (OM) as mangrove ecosystems produce large quantities and rapidly burial OM. Sediment accumulation rates of approximately 2.0 mm year(-1), based on (210)Pb(ex) dating, were estimated at the margin of two well-developed mangrove forest in southern Brazil. Regional data point to a relative sea level (RSL) rise of up to ∼4.0 mm year(-1). This RSL rise in turn, may directly influence the origin and quantity of organic matter (OM) deposited along mangrove sediments. Lithostratigraphic changes show that sand deposition is replacing the mud (<63 μm) fraction and OM content is decreasing in successively younger sediments. Sediment accumulation in coastal areas that are not keeping pace with sea level rise is potentially conducive to the observed shifts in particle size and OM content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Rising Cost of Private Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suttle, J. Lloyd

1983-01-01

The informational and analytical bases by which Yale University sets tuition levels and long-term pricing policies are illustrated. The rising cost of private higher education is discussed, considering historical trends, inflation, the institution's financial condition, comparative costs from other schools, and effect on enrollment. (MSE)

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2015-01-22

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jie; Fu, Xinyu; Gu, Yue; Deng, Yujun; Peng, Zhong-Ren

2017-03-01

Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) - a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 - historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

PubMed

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-06-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-01-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

Contemporary sea level rise.

PubMed

Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

2010-01-01

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-08-01

The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10020 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled "msltrend," specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.

Encoding of sound envelope transients in the auditory cortex of juvenile rats and adult rats.

PubMed

Lu, Qi; Jiang, Cuiping; Zhang, Jiping

2016-02-01

Accurate neural processing of time-varying sound amplitude and spectral information is vital for species-specific communication. During postnatal development, cortical processing of sound frequency undergoes progressive refinement; however, it is not clear whether cortical processing of sound envelope transients also undergoes age-related changes. We determined the dependence of neural response strength and first-spike latency on sound rise-fall time across sound levels in the primary auditory cortex (A1) of juvenile (P20-P30) rats and adult (8-10 weeks) rats. A1 neurons were categorized as "all-pass", "short-pass", or "mixed" ("all-pass" at high sound levels to "short-pass" at lower sound levels) based on the normalized response strength vs. rise-fall time functions across sound levels. The proportions of A1 neurons within each of the three categories in juvenile rats were similar to that in adult rats. In general, with increasing rise-fall time, the average response strength decreased and the average first-spike latency increased in A1 neurons of both groups. At a given sound level and rise-fall time, the average normalized neural response strength did not differ significantly between the two age groups. However, the A1 neurons in juvenile rats showed greater absolute response strength, longer first-spike latency compared to those in adult rats. In addition, at a constant sound level, the average first-spike latency of juvenile A1 neurons was more sensitive to changes in rise-fall time. Our results demonstrate the dependence of the responses of rat A1 neurons on sound rise-fall time, and suggest that the response latency exhibit some age-related changes in cortical representation of sound envelope rise time. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of sea-level rise on organic matter decay rates in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwanm, M.L.; Langley, J.A.; Guntenspergen, Gleen R.; Megonigal, J.P.

2013-01-01

The balance between organic matter production and decay determines how fast coastal wetlands accumulate soil organic matter. Despite the importance of soil organic matter accumulation rates in influencing marsh elevation and resistance to sea-level rise, relatively little is known about how decomposition rates will respond to sea-level rise. Here, we estimate the sensitivity of decomposition to flooding by measuring rates of decay in 87 bags filled with milled sedge peat, including soil organic matter, roots and rhizomes. Experiments were located in field-based mesocosms along 3 mesohaline tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Mesocosm elevations were manipulated to influence the duration of tidal inundation. Although we found no significant influence of inundation on decay rate when bags from all study sites were analyzed together, decay rates at two of the sites increased with greater flooding. These findings suggest that flooding may enhance organic matter decay rates even in water-logged soils, but that the overall influence of flooding is minor. Our experiments suggest that sea-level rise will not accelerate rates of peat accumulation by slowing the rate of soil organic matter decay. Consequently, marshes will require enhanced organic matter productivity or mineral sediment deposition to survive accelerating sea-level rise.

The impact of sea-level rise on organic matter decay rates in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Langley, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Megonigal, J. P.

2013-03-01

The balance between organic matter production and decay determines how fast coastal wetlands accumulate soil organic matter. Despite the importance of soil organic matter accumulation rates in influencing marsh elevation and resistance to sea-level rise, relatively little is known about how decomposition rates will respond to sea-level rise. Here, we estimate the sensitivity of decomposition to flooding by measuring rates of decay in 87 bags filled with milled sedge peat, including soil organic matter, roots and rhizomes. Experiments were located in field-based mesocosms along 3 mesohaline tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Mesocosm elevations were manipulated to influence the duration of tidal inundation. Although we found no significant influence of inundation on decay rate when bags from all study sites were analyzed together, decay rates at two of the sites increased with greater flooding. These findings suggest that flooding may enhance organic matter decay rates even in water-logged soils, but that the overall influence of flooding is minor. Our experiments suggest that sea-level rise will not accelerate rates of peat accumulation by slowing the rate of soil organic matter decay. Consequently, marshes will require enhanced organic matter productivity or mineral sediment deposition to survive accelerating sea-level rise.

The impact of sea-level rise on organic matter decay rates in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Langley, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Megonigal, J. P.

2012-10-01

The balance between organic matter production and decay determines how fast coastal wetlands accumulate soil organic matter. Despite the importance of soil organic matter accumulation rates in influencing marsh elevation and resistance to sea-level rise, relatively little is known about how decomposition rates will respond to sea-level rise. Here, we estimate the sensitivity of decomposition to flooding by measuring rates of decay in 87 bags filled with milled sedge peat, including soil organic matter, roots and rhizomes. Experiments were located in field-based mesocosms along 3 mesohaline tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Mesocosm elevations were manipulated to influence the duration of tidal inundation. Although we found no significant influence of inundation on decay rate when bags from all study sites were analyzed together, decay rates at two of the sites increased with greater flooding. These findings suggest that flooding may enhance organic matter decay rates even in water-logged soils, but that the overall influence of flooding is minor. Our experiments suggest that sea-level rise will not accelerate rates of peat accumulation by slowing the rate of soil organic matter decay. Consequently, marshes will require enhanced organic matter productivity or mineral sediment deposition to survive accelerating sea-level rise.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Climate change and Sea level rise: Potential impact on the coast of the Edremit Plain, NW Turkey.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curebal, Isa; Efe, Recep; Soykan, Abdullah; Sonmez, Suleyman

2015-04-01

Over the past century, most of the world's mountain glaciers and the ice sheets have lost mass due to global warming. When the temperature exceeds a particular level, glaciers and polar ice caps will continue to lose mass. Recent studies report that low-lying coastal areas will be seriously affected by sea level rise. Changes in the amount of natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols had a warming effect on the global climate during last century. Thus, the pace of melting of ice sheets increased, and, accordingly, sea level began to rise faster. Rise in sea level between 1961 and 2003 was equal to 1.8 mm/year while it was 3.1 mm/year between 1993 and 2003. The total rise in the 20th century is estimated to be between 17 and 19 cm. The models based on the sea level change indicate that the average global temperature at the end of the 21st century will increase by 0.3°C - 6.4°C. Global sea level is projected to rise 8-25 cm by 2030, relative to 2000 levels, 18-48 cm by 2050, and 50-140 cm by 20110. The Edremit Plain lies between Mount Madra and the Kaz Mountains on the coast of Aegean Sea in NW Turkey. It is lowland with an area of 141 km2. The widest part of the plain is 16 km along the E - W direction. The N - S direction amounts to a width of 15 km. The plain is covered with alluvial deposits that settled in the Quaternary Period. The elevation ranges from 0 to 50 m a.s.l. in the plain. This study aims to determine how the low-lying coastal land areas of the Edremit Plain may be affected by possible changes in sea level. Elevation dataset is based on the digital elevation model (DEM) of Landsat ETM + satellite images. To that end, satellite images were used to draw the current coastline. Curves of 2.5, 5, and 10 m were drawn through the use of maps with a scale of 1/25.000. Later on, the areas of the fields between these points were calculated. Current estimates show that 2.5 m rise in sea level will cause sea water to cover an area of 8.6 km2 (%14.0), 5 m to 28.4 km2 (%21.2), and 10 m to 58.3 km2 (%41.2) on the coastal land. In such cases, a +2.5 m change will trigger the current coastline to regress by 1.3 km while a +5 m change will lead to 3.4 km, and a +10 m change will cause 5.2 km. As a result, residential, agricultural, and wetlands on the coastal land of the plain will be submerged by rising sea levels, leading to significant habitat loss and changes in the ecosystem. The creation of detailed elevation may reveal more clear effects of the changes in sea level. Key Words: Climate change, coastline, Edremit plain, global warming, sea level rise.

Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

PubMed

Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

2004-03-25

The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

2004-11-01

In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much-needed research into the coastal response to sea-level rise.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Can sea level rise cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urlaub, Morelia

2014-05-01

Submarine landslides are one of the volumetrically most important sediment transport processes at continental margins. Moreover, these landslides are a major geohazard as they can cause damaging tsunamis and destroy seabed infrastructure. Due to their inaccessibility our understanding of what causes these landslides is limited and based on hypotheses that are difficult to test. Some of the largest submarine landslides, such as the Storegga Slide off Norway, occurred during times of eustatic sea level rise. It has been suggested that this global sea level rise was implicated in triggering of the landslides by causing an increase in excess pore pressure in the subseafloor. However, in a homogeneous slope a change in the thickness of the overlying water mass is not expected to affect its stability, as only the hydrostatic pressure component will change, whereas pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic will remain unaltered. Whether sufficiently rapid sea level rise, aided by rather impermeable sediment and complex layering, could cause excess pore pressures that may destabilise a continental slope is more difficult to answer and has not yet been tested. I use Finite Element Modelling to explore and quantify the direct effect of changes in the thickness of the overlying water mass on the stability of a generic sediment column with different stratigraphic conditions and hydro-mechanical properties. The results show that the direct effect of sea level rise on continental slope stability is minimal. Nevertheless, sea level rise may foster other processes, such as lithospheric stress changes resulting in increased seismicity, that could potentially cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes.

Vertical accretion and shallow subsidence in a mangrove forest of southwestern Florida, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, D.R.; Lynch, J.C.

1997-01-01

Simultaneous measurements of vertical accretion from artificial soil marker horizons and soil elevation change from sedimentation-erosion table (SET) plots were used to evaluate the processes related to soil building in range, basin, and overwash mangrove forests located in a low-energy lagoon which recieves minor inputs of terregenous sediments. Vertical accretion measures reflect the contribution of surficial sedimentation (sediment deposition and surface root growth). Measures of elevation change reflect not only the contributions of vertical accretion but also those of subsurface processes such as compaction, decomposition and shrink-swell. The two measures were used to calculate amounts of shallow subsidence (accretion minus elevation change) in each mangrove forest. The three forest types represent different accretionary envrionments. The basin forest was located behind a natural berm. Hydroperiod here was controlled primarily by rainfall rather than tidal exchange, although the basin flooded during extreme tidal events. Soil accretion here occurred primarily by autochthonous organic matter inputs, and elevation was controlled by accretion and shrink-swell of the substrate apparently related to cycles of flooding-drying and/or root growth-decomposition. This hydrologically-restricted forest did not experience an accretion or elevation deficit relative to sea-level rise. The tidally dominated fringe and overwash island forests accreted through mineral sediment inputs bound in place by plant roots. Filamentous turf algae played an important role in stabilizing loose muds in the fringe forest where erosion was prevalent. Elevation in these high-energy environments was controlled not only by accretion but also by erosion and/or shallow subsidence. The rate of shallow subsidence was consistently 3-4 mm y-1 in the fringe and overwash island forests but was negligible in the basin forest. Hence, the vertical development of mangrove soils was influenced by both surface and subsurface processes and the procces controlling soil elevation differed among forest types. The mangrove ecosystem at Rookery Bay has remained stable as sea level has risen during the past 70 years. Yet, lead-210 accretion data suggest a substantial accretion deficit has occurred in the past century (accretion was 10-20 cm < sea-level rise from 1930 to 1990) in the fringe and island forests at Rookery Bay. In contrast, our measures of elevation change mostly equalled the estimates of sea-level rise and shallow subsidence. These data suggest that (1) vertical accretion in this system is driven by local sea-level rise and shallow subsidence, and (2) the mangrove forests are mostly keeping pace with sea-level rise. Thus, the vulnerability of this mangrove ecosystem to sea-level rise is best described in terms of an elevation deficit (elevation change minus sea-level rise) based on annual measures rather than an accretion deficit (accretion minus sea-level rise) based on decadal measures.

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

On the rate and causes of twentieth century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

2006-04-15

Both the rate and causes of twentieth century global sea-level rise (GSLR) have been controversial. Estimates from tide-gauges range from less than one, to more than two millimetre yr(-1). In contrast, values based on the processes mostly responsible for GSLR-mass increase (from mountain glaciers and the great high latitude ice masses) and volume increase (expansion due to ocean warming)-fall below this range. Either the gauge estimates are too high, or one (or both) of the component estimates is too low. Gauge estimates of GSLR have been in dispute for several decades because of vertical land movements, especially due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). More recently, the possibility has been raised that coastal tide-gauges measure exaggerated rates of sea-level rise because of localized ocean warming. Presented here are two approaches to a resolution of these problems. The first is morphological, based on the limiting values of observed trends of twentieth century relative sea-level rise as a function of distance from the centres of the ice loads at last glacial maximum. This observational approach, which does not depend on a geophysical model of GIA, supports values of GSLR near 2 mm yr(-1). The second approach involves an analysis of long records of tide-gauge and hydrographic (in situ temperature and salinity) observations in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. It was found that sea-level trends from tide-gauges, which reflect both mass and volume change, are 2-3 times higher than rates based on hydrographic data which reveal only volume change. These results support those studies that put the twentieth century rate near 2 mm yr(-1), thereby indicating that mass increase plays a much larger role than ocean warming in twentieth century GSLR.

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

Contributions of a Strengthened Early Holocene Monsoon and Sediment Loading to Present-Day Subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, M.; Ballu, V.; Krien, Y.; Becker, M.; Goodbred, S.; Spada, G.; Calmant, S.; Shum, C. K.; Khan, Z.

2018-02-01

The contribution of subsidence to relative sea level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) is largely unknown and may considerably enhance exposure of the Bengal Basin populations to sea level rise and storm surges. This paper focuses on estimating the present-day subsidence induced by Holocene sediment in the Bengal Basin and by oceanic loading due to eustatic sea level rise over the past 18 kyr. Using a viscoelastic Earth model and sediment deposition history based on in situ measurements, results suggest that massive sediment influx initiated in the early Holocene under a strengthened South Asian monsoon may have contributed significantly to the present-day subsidence of the GBD. We estimate that the Holocene loading generates up to 1.6 mm/yr of the present-day subsidence along the GBD coast, depending on the rheological model of the Earth. This rate is close to the twentieth century global mean sea level rise (1.1-1.7 mm/yr). Thus, past climate change, by way of enhanced sedimentation, is impacting vulnerability of the GBD populations.

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology).

PubMed

Anderson, David G; Bissett, Thaddeus G; Yerka, Stephen J; Wells, Joshua J; Kansa, Eric C; Kansa, Sarah W; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R Carl; White, Devin A

2017-01-01

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology)

PubMed Central

Wells, Joshua J.; Kansa, Eric C.; Kansa, Sarah W.; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R. Carl; White, Devin A.

2017-01-01

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts. PMID:29186200

Implications of sea level rise scenarios on land use /land cover classes of the coastal zones of Cochin, India.

PubMed

Mani Murali, R; Dinesh Kumar, P K

2015-01-15

Physical responses of the coastal zones in the vicinity of Cochin, India due to sea level rise are investigated based on analysis of inundation scenarios. Quantification of potential habitat loss was made by merging the Land use/Land cover (LU/LC) prepared from the satellite imagery with the digital elevation model. Scenarios were generated for two different rates of sea level rise and responses of changes occurred were made to ascertain the vulnerability and loss in extent. LU/LC classes overlaid on 1 m and 2 m elevation showed that it was mostly covered by vegetation areas followed by water and urban zones. For the sea level rise scenarios of 1 m and 2 m, the total inundation zones were estimated to be 169.11 km(2) and 598.83 km(2) respectively using Geographic Information System (GIS). The losses of urban areas were estimated at 43 km(2) and 187 km(2) for the 1 m and 2 m sea level rise respectively which is alarming information for the most densely populated state of India. Quantitative comparison of other LU/LC classes showed significant changes under each of the inundation scenarios. The results obtained conclusively point that sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects on the land use and land cover classes as well as on coastal landforms in the study region. Coastal inundation would leave ocean front and inland properties vulnerable. Increase in these water levels would alter the coastal drainage gradients. Reduction in these gradients would increase flooding attributable to rainstorms which could promote salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers and force water tables to rise. Changes in the coastal landforms associated with inundation generate concern in the background that the coastal region may continue to remain vulnerable in the coming decades due to population growth and development pressures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

PubMed

Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

2014-02-01

To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

Dasymetric high resolution population distribution estimates for improved decision making, with a case study of sea-level rise vulnerability in Boca Raton, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, Hannes Moritz

Planners and managers often rely on coarse population distribution data from the census for addressing various social, economic, and environmental problems. In the analysis of physical vulnerabilities to sea-level rise, census units such as blocks or block groups are coarse relative to the required decision-making application. This study explores the benefits offered from integrating image classification and dasymetric mapping at the household level to provide detailed small area population estimates at the scale of residential buildings. In a case study of Boca Raton, FL, a sea-level rise inundation grid based on mapping methods by NOAA is overlaid on the highly detailed population distribution data to identify vulnerable residences and estimate population displacement. The enhanced spatial detail offered through this method has the potential to better guide targeted strategies for future development, mitigation, and adaptation efforts.

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Survey of Subsidence in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA).

PubMed

Bekaert, D P S; Hamlington, B D; Buzzanga, B; Jones, C E

2017-11-07

Over the past century, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay region has experienced one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence, which has long been known to be present in the region, and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. The objective of this study is to estimate the land component of relative sea level rise using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis applied to ALOS-1 synthetic aperture radar data acquired during 2007-2011 to generate high-spatial resolution (20-30 m) estimates of vertical land motion. Although these results are limited by the uncertainty associated with the small set of available historical SAR data, they highlight both localized rates of high subsidence and a significant spatial variability in subsidence, emphasizing the need for further measurement, which could be done with Sentinel-1 and NASA's upcoming NISAR mission.

Incorporating Infrastructure and Vegetation Effects on Sea Level Rise Predictions in Low-Gradient Coastal Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. F.; Sandi Rojas, S.; Trivisonno, F.; Saco, P. M.; Riccardi, G.

2015-12-01

At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important overestimation or underestimation of the inundation extent. One of such cases is coastal wetlands, where vegetation strongly affects both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display other forms of flow restrictions due to, for example, infrastructure or drainage works, which also alters the inundation patterns. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in coastal wetlands. We use a dynamic wetland evolution model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We apply our model to a coastal wetland in Australia and compare predictions of our model to predictions using conventional approaches. We found that some restrictions accentuate detrimental effects of sea level rise while others moderate them. We also found that some management strategies based on flow redistribution that provide short term solution may result more damaging in the long term if sea level rise is considered.

Implications of sea-level rise in a modern carbonate ramp setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lokier, Stephen W.; Court, Wesley M.; Onuma, Takumi; Paul, Andreas

2018-03-01

This study addresses a gap in our understanding of the effects of sea-level rise on the sedimentary systems and morphological development of recent and ancient carbonate ramp settings. Many ancient carbonate sequences are interpreted as having been deposited in carbonate ramp settings. These settings are poorly-represented in the Recent. The study documents the present-day transgressive flooding of the Abu Dhabi coastline at the southern shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf, a carbonate ramp depositional system that is widely employed as a Recent analogue for numerous ancient carbonate systems. Fourteen years of field-based observations are integrated with historical and recent high-resolution satellite imagery in order to document and assess the onset of flooding. Predicted rates of transgression (i.e. landward movement of the shoreline) of 2.5 m yr- 1 (± 0.2 m yr- 1) based on global sea-level rise alone were far exceeded by the flooding rate calculated from the back-stepping of coastal features (10-29 m yr- 1). This discrepancy results from the dynamic nature of the flooding with increased water depth exposing the coastline to increased erosion and, thereby, enhancing back-stepping. A non-accretionary transgressive shoreline trajectory results from relatively rapid sea-level rise coupled with a low-angle ramp geometry and a paucity of sediments. The flooding is represented by the landward migration of facies belts, a range of erosive features and the onset of bioturbation. Employing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Church et al., 2013) predictions for 21st century sea-level rise, and allowing for the post-flooding lag time that is typical for the start-up of carbonate factories, it is calculated that the coastline will continue to retrograde for the foreseeable future. Total passive flooding (without considering feedback in the modification of the shoreline) by the year 2100 is calculated to likely be between 340 and 571 m with a flooding rate of 3.40-8.64 m yr- 1. However, adopting the observation that global sea-level rise only accounts for 15% of the recorded shoreline retreat, this figure rises dramatically to a total likely dynamic flooding (considering modifications to the shoreline) of between 2.3 and 3.8 km. Loss of microbial and mangal habitats will subject the exposed shoreline to increasing erosion. Shoreline retreat will threaten existing coastal infrastructure.

Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

2014-02-13

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Methodology for estimating human perception to tremors in high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Wenqi; Goh, Key Seng; Pan, Tso-Chien

2017-07-01

Human perception to tremors during earthquakes in high-rise buildings is usually associated with psychological discomfort such as fear and anxiety. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the level of perception to tremors for occupants living in high-rise buildings subjected to ground motion excitations. Unlike other approaches based on empirical or historical data, the proposed methodology performs a regression analysis using the analytical results of two generic models of 15 and 30 stories. The recorded ground motions in Singapore are collected and modified for structural response analyses. Simple predictive models are then developed to estimate the perception level to tremors based on a proposed ground motion intensity parameter—the average response spectrum intensity in the period range between 0.1 and 2.0 s. These models can be used to predict the percentage of occupants in high-rise buildings who may perceive the tremors at a given ground motion intensity. Furthermore, the models are validated with two recent tremor events reportedly felt in Singapore. It is found that the estimated results match reasonably well with the reports in the local newspapers and from the authorities. The proposed methodology is applicable to urban regions where people living in high-rise buildings might feel tremors during earthquakes.

Coastal Vulnerability Due to Sea-level Rise Hazard in the Bangladesh Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, Ck; Ballu, Valérie; Calmant, Stéphane; Duan, Jianbin; Guo, Junyi; Hossain, Fasial; Jenkins, Craig; Haque Khan, Zahirul; Kim, Jinwoo; Kuhn, Michael; Kusche, Jürgen; Papa, Fabrice; Tseng, Kuohsin; Wan, Junkun

2014-05-01

Approximately half of the world's population or 3.2 billion people lives within 200 km of coastlines and many of them in the world's deltaic plains. Sea-level rise, widely recognized as one of consequences resulting from anthropogenic climate change, has induced substantial coastal vulnerability globally and in particular, in the deltaic regions, such as coastal Bangladesh, and Yangtze Delta. Bangladesh, a low-lying, one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Here we describe the physical science component of the integrated approach based on both physical and social sciences to address the adaption and potential mitigation of coastal Bangladesh vulnerability. The objective is to quantify the estimates of spatial varying sea-level trend separating the vertical motion of the coastal regions using geodetic and remote-sensing measurements (tide gauges, 1950-current; satellite altimetry, 1992-present, GRACE, 2003-present, Landsat/MODIS), reconstructed sea-level trends (1950-current), and GPS and InSAR observed land subsidence. Our goal is to conduct physically based robust projection of relative sea-level change at the end of the 21st century for the Bangladesh Delta to enable quantitative measures of social science based adaption and possible mitigation.

Can human activities alter the drowning fate of barrier islands?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Ashton, A. D.; Jin, D.; Hoagland, P.; Kite-Powell, H.

2012-12-01

Low-lying coastal barriers face an uncertain future over the coming century and beyond as sea levels rise, with many projections suggesting end-of-century rates of sea-level rise as high or higher than 1 cm/yr. Geologically, such rates of sea-level rise have been experienced several thousand years ago and we can use our understanding of geological processes and sedimentary evidence to help unravel the dynamics of natural barriers experiencing sea-level rise. Along many modern coastal barriers, however, anthropic change, such as beach nourishment, dune construction, and emplacement of hard structures, plays a dominant role in coastline dynamics. A fundamental question to be addressed is whether human activities intended to preserve infrastructure and beach recreation may make wholesale collapse, or 'drowning,' of barrier systems more likely. Here we present a numerical modeling tool that couples natural processes and the human responses to these changes (and the subsequent of human responses on natural processes). Recent theoretical model development suggests that barriers are intrinsically morphodynamic features, responding to sea-level rise in complex ways through the interactions of marine processes and barrier overwash. Undeveloped coastal barriers would therefore respond to an accelerated sea-level rise in complex, less predictable manners than suggested by existing long-term models. We have developed a model that examines non-equilibrium cross-shore evolution of barrier systems at decadal to centennial temporal scales, focusing on the interactions between processes of shoreface evolution and overwash deposition. Model responses demonstrate two means of barrier collapse during sea-level rise: 'height drowning', which occurs when overwash fluxes are insufficient to maintain the landward migration rate required to keep in pace with sea-level rise, and 'width drowning', which occurs when the shoreface response is insufficient to maintain the barrier geometry during landward migration. The model also demonstrates the potential for discontinuous shoreline retreat, with alternating periods of barrier stability and rapid migration, even for constant rates of sea-level rise. Anthropic activities can strongly interact with these behaviors. In particular, considering only cross-shore processes, beach nourishment activities widen the beach and can affect shoreface fluxes, and dune building, which curtails the overwash process, can potentially enhance barrier drowning by reducing overwash fluxes. Furthermore, coastal protection activities of adjacent communities or even individual property holders can be uncoordinated or coordinated, with their effects coupled along the coast through coastal reorientation and gradients in alongshore sediment transport. In the coordinated framework, owners act in concert to alter the barrier based upon community benefits, whereas in the non-coordinated framework owners alter only their own property. Another important role in management is the perception of future sea-level-rise-associated losses—communities manage their coast differently depending on their adopted forecast for sea-level rise. We find that coordinated behavior coupled with natural processes can substantially affect the drowning scenarios from the individual decision-making process.

Salt marsh as a coastal filter for the oceans: changes in function with experimental increases in nitrogen loading and sea-level rise.

PubMed

Nelson, Joanna L; Zavaleta, Erika S

2012-01-01

Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N) before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH(4)NO(3))-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a) aboveground biomass, b) plant tissue N concentrations, c) N stock sequestered in plants, and d) shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication.

Salt Marsh as a Coastal Filter for the Oceans: Changes in Function with Experimental Increases in Nitrogen Loading and Sea-Level Rise

PubMed Central

Nelson, Joanna L.; Zavaleta, Erika S.

2012-01-01

Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N) before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH4NO3)-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a) aboveground biomass, b) plant tissue N concentrations, c) N stock sequestered in plants, and d) shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication. PMID:22879873

Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

2012-04-01

In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade, particularly for the high scenario. Dutch design levels for coastal water defence structures (dikes and dunes) are based on extreme value statistics of long time series of high water levels. These design levels have typically return periods of 2000, 4000 and 10.000 years, depending on the importance of the protected dike ring. The last statistical analysis for the update of the design levels refers to the sea level situation of 1985. According to the Water Act Dutch design levels must be tested periodically (every 6 years). Due to sea level rise and tidal changes the design levels are corrected for the rise of the mean high waters from 1985 until the end of the testing period under consideration. This demands a tailoring approach for different regions or locations instead of a national average as for coastal preservation. Runs with climate models and coupled hydrodynamic models in the framework of the Essence project and the Delta Committee 2008 showed no indication for a change in the statistics of extreme storm surge levels. For the estimation of sea level rise over the last 120 years a linear regression gives the most robust estimate. Showing decadal variability needs more sophisticated models. For the last update of the design levels the elegant Whittaker smoother has been applied. Dutch policy prescribes to account for a future sea level rise of 60 cm per century for the design of new dikes or dike reinforcements and 85 cm per century for the long term (200 years) allocation of space for future reinforcements, in agreement with the KNMI'06 scenario's for sea level rise (central value and upper limit).

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

2017-01-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

Digital shoreline analysis system-based change detection along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.; Richardson, Mark A.

2017-07-01

Coastal regions are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming. Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) predictions of 26 to 82 cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative. Subsequent investigations predict much higher levels which would displace 10% of the world's population living less than 10 m above sea level. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study estimates the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. The rate of shoreline shift along the 330-km long K-G delta coast was estimated using satellite images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, end point rate and net shoreline movement were calculated using a GIS-based digital shoreline analysis system. The results indicated a net loss of about 42.1 km2 area during this 31-year period, which is in agreement with previous literature. Considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line (or coastline) is predicted for the area; the predication indicates a net erosion of about 57.6 km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

A process for developing and revising a learning progression on sea level rise using learners' explanations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Robert Christopher

The purpose of this study was to explore the process of developing a learning progression (LP) on constructing explanations about sea level rise. I used a learning progressions theoretical framework informed by the situated cognition learning theory. During this exploration, I explicitly described my decision-making process as I developed and revised a hypothetical learning progression. Correspondingly, my research question was: What is a process by which a hypothetical learning progression on sea level rise is developed into an empirical learning progression using learners' explanations? To answer this question, I used a qualitative descriptive single case study with multiple embedded cases (Yin, 2014) that employed analytic induction (Denzin, 1970) to analyze data collected on middle school learners (grades 6-8). Data sources included written artifacts, classroom observations, and semi-structured interviews. Additionally, I kept a researcher journal to track my thinking about the learning progression throughout the research study. Using analytic induction to analyze collected data, I developed eight analytic concepts: participant explanation structures varied widely, global warming and ice melt cause sea level rise, participants held alternative conceptions about sea level rise, participants learned about thermal expansion as a fundamental aspect of sea level rise, participants learned to incorporate authentic scientific data, participants' mental models of the ocean varied widely, sea ice melt contributes to sea level rise, and participants held vague and alternative conceptions about how pollution impacts the ocean. I started with a hypothetical learning progression, gathered empirical data via various sources (especially semi-structured interviews), revised the hypothetical learning progression in response to those data, and ended with an empirical learning progression comprising six levels of learner thinking. As a result of developing an empirically based LP, I was able to compare two learning progressions on the same topic. By comparing my learning progression with the LP in Breslyn, McGinnis, McDonald, and Hestness (2016), I was able to confirm portions of the two learning progressions and explore different possible pathways for learners to achieve progress towards upper anchors of the LPs through targeted instruction. Implications for future LP research, curriculum, instruction, assessment, and policy related to learning progressions are presented.

Assessing the Potential for Inland Migration of a Northeastern Salt Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farron, S.; FitzGerald, D.; Hughes, Z. J.

2017-12-01

It is often assumed that as sea level rises, salt marshes will expand inland. If the slope of the upland is relatively flat and sufficient sediment is available, marshes should be able to spread horizontally and grow vertically in order to maintain their areal extent. However, in cases where marshes are backed by steeper slopes, or sediment supply is limited, rising sea level will produce minimal gains along the landward edge insufficient to offset potential losses along the seaward edge. This study uses future sea level rise scenarios to project areal losses for the Great Marsh in Massachusetts, the largest continuous salt marsh in New England. Land area covered by salt marsh is defined by surface elevation. Annual sediment input to the system is estimated based on the areal extent of high and low marsh, historical accretion rates for each, and known organic/inorganic ratios. Unlike other studies, sediment availability is considered to be finite, and future accretion rates are limited based on the assumption that the system is presently receiving the maximum sediment input available. The Great Marsh is dominated by high marsh; as sea level rises, it will convert to low marsh, vastly altering the ecological and sedimentological dynamics of the system. If it is assumed that former high marsh areas will build vertically at the increased rate associated with low marsh, then much of the total marsh area will be maintained. However, this may be an unrealistic assumption due to the low levels of suspended sediment within the Great Marsh system. Modeling the evolution of the Great Marsh by assuming that the current accretion rate is the maximum possible for this system reveals much greater losses than models assuming an unlimited sediment supply would predict (17% less marsh by 2115). In addition, uplands surrounding the Great Marsh have been shaped by glaciation, leaving numerous drumlins and other glacial landforms. Compared to the flat backbarrier, the surrounding hills offer little opportunity for expansion. Modeling results suggest that sea level rise over the next century will convert 12 km2 of marsh to open water, but only 9 km2 of new marsh will be formed through uplands inundation and sedimentation. These findings suggest that sea level rise presents a particular threat to the Great Marsh, and marshes like it.

Modeling Holocene Barrier Island Morphodynamics and Potential Future Response to Sea- Level Rise, Outer Banks, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, L. J.; List, J. H.; Williams, S. J.; Stolper, D.

2006-12-01

A morphological-behavior model, GEOMBEST, which simulates the evolution of coastal morphology and stratigraphy resulting from changes in sea level and sediment supply provides insight into how barriers evolve over time scales ranging from decades to millenia. The model is based upon behavior rules originating from "Bruun rule" concepts, with additional parameters to allow simulation of more complex real-world scenarios. Morphological evolution in the model is driven by disequilibrium between the shoreface and a user-specified theoretical equilibrium profile that maintains its vertical position relative to sea level. As sea level continues rising to an estimated 48 cm above current MSL by AD 2100 (IPCC 2001) and hurricanes of potentially greater intensity impact the coast, barrier islands will respond either by transgressing across underlying strata or by disintegrating and ultimately submerging. Recent studies suggest that some barriers along the U.S. East Coast will break up and become submerged within decades. Other studies show that barriers in Louisiana have already submerged while others are in the process of narrowing in place and submerging. Several factors determine barrier island response to sea-level rise. These include initial topography and morphology of the barrier, underlying geologic framework, availability and supply of sediment, rate of sea-level rise, frequency and intensity of coastal storms, and anthropogenic modifications to the coast. Sensitivity analyses conducted in GEOMBEST suggest that of these factors, barrier-island response is most sensitive to the rate of sea-level rise. The Holocene evolution of the Outer Banks and potential future responses to sea-level rise are explored for a 25-km stretch of coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC using GEOMBEST. An 8500-year hindcast simulation for the study area reproduces closely the morphology and stratigraphy of the modern barrier with approximately 5 x 109 m3 excavated from the Pleistocene substrate, liberating a volume of material sufficient to construct Diamond Shoals. This hindcast simulation serves as the basis for forward simulations of potential future barrier island evolution. A series of model runs based on the low- (0.09 m), mid- (0.48 m) and upper- (0.88 m) range of IPCC (2001) estimates for sea-level rise by the year 2100, suggest the barrier would migrate at rates of approximately 2, 6 and 10 m/yr, respectively. The latter two results would represent an increase over modern long-term erosion rates in the study area, which serve as a proxy for migration rates. Model simulations of barrier response to 4 and 6 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100 (Overpeck et al., 2006), result in model-generated migration rates of 43 and 68 m/yr, respectively. These rates far exceed the highest average long-term barrier island erosion rates observed today along the Louisiana Coast where the Chandeleur Islands disintegrated in response to Hurricane Katrina. If observations in Louisiana can be applied to barrier islands in North Carolina, then we can expect the Outer Banks to become vulnerable to disintegration when migration rates reach approximately 15-20 m/yr. The five forward simulations for the study area suggest rates in this range may be achieved in the Outer Banks if sea-level rise by AD 2100 exceeds IPCC (2001) estimates.

A method of estimating ground-water supplies based on discharge by plants and evaporation from soil: Results of investigations in Escalante Valley, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, W.N.

1932-01-01

Fluctuations of water levels in wells, if critically studied, may give much information as to the occurrence, movement, and quantity of available ground water. In some localities the ground-water level has been observed to decline during the day and to rise at night, the decline beginning at about the same hour every morning and the rise at about the same hour every night. This daily decline is due to the withdrawal of ground water from the zone of saturation by plants, and the rise at night is due to upward movement of water under slight artesian pressure from permeable beds of sand and gravel at some depth beneath the water table.

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on unconfined sloping island aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesnaux, R.

2016-04-01

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater oceanic island lenses are provided for the cases of both strip and circular islands. Solutions are proposed for directly calculating the change in the thickness of the lens, the changes in volume and the changes in travel time of fresh groundwater within island aquifers. The solutions apply for homogenous aquifers recharged by surface infiltration and discharged by a down-gradient, fixed-head boundary. They also take into account the inland shift of the ocean due to land surface inundation, this shift being determined by the coastal slope of inland aquifers. The solutions are given for two simple island geometries: circular islands and strip islands. Base case examples are presented to illustrate, on one hand, the amplitude of the change of the fresh groundwater lens thickness and the volume depletion of the lens in oceanic island with sea-level rise, and on the other hand, the shortening of time required for groundwater to discharge into the ocean. These consequences can now be quantified and may help decision-makers to anticipate the effects of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater availability in oceanic island aquifers.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, J.

2015-12-01

It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

Ghost forest creation and the conversion of uplands to wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Schieder, N. W.; Reay, W.

2017-12-01

Global sea level rise rates began accelerating sharply in the late 19th century, with an approximate tripling in sea level rise rates in many regions of the world. Some portions of the coastal landscape, such as marshes and barrier islands, survive relative sea level rise by natural eco-geomorphic processes that allow them to build elevation vertically and migrate landward. In contrast, adjacent uplands typically occupied by forests and agricultural fields have limited ability to resist the impacts of sea level rise. This portion of the coastal landscape consists of mostly salt intolerant plants, receives little mineral sediment deposition, and rarely builds elevation through the accumulation of soil organic matter. Thus, ghost forests- dead trees surrounded by marshland- are a prominent feature of many low-relief coastal landscapes, and represent a striking visual indicator of upland to wetland conversion. Here, we report preliminary results of several efforts designed to quantify rates and drivers of upland to wetland conversion in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Drone based canopy monitoring and ground-based seedling experiments suggest that ghost forests are created by episodic, storm-driven adult tree mortality paired with continuous seedling mortality. Preliminary comparisons between sediment cores and historical photographs from 5 sites in Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina suggest that modern coastal forest retreat is 2-10 times faster than late-Holocene retreat rates, and that rates have accelerated in most decades since the 1930's. Finally, historical T-Sheet maps suggest that approximately 100,000 acres (400 km2) of uplands have converted to wetlands in the Chesapeake region, and that about 1/3 of all present-day marsh was created by upland drowning since the late 19th Century. Together, these observations indicate rapid coastal transgression, where low-relief, terrestrial portions of the coastal landscape are perhaps more sensitive to sea level rise than better studied, more seaward portions.

Opportunities in Participatory Science and Citizen Science with MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment: A Virtual Science Team Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulick, Ginny

2009-09-01

We report on the accomplishments of the HiRISE EPO program over the last two and a half years of science operations. We have focused primarily on delivering high impact science opportunities through our various participatory science and citizen science websites. Uniquely, we have invited students from around the world to become virtual HiRISE team members by submitting target suggestions via our HiRISE Quest Image challenges using HiWeb the team's image suggestion facility web tools. When images are acquired, students analyze their returned images, write a report and work with a HiRISE team member to write a image caption for release on the HiRISE website (http://hirise.lpl.arizona.edu). Another E/PO highlight has been our citizen scientist effort, HiRISE Clickworkers (http://clickworkers.arc.nasa.gov/hirise). Clickworkers enlists volunteers to identify geologic features (e.g., dunes, craters, wind streaks, gullies, etc.) in the HiRISE images and help generate searchable image databases. In addition, the large image sizes and incredible spatial resolution of the HiRISE camera can tax the capabilities of the most capable computers, so we have also focused on enabling typical users to browse, pan and zoom the HiRISE images using our HiRISE online image viewer (http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/HiRISE/hirise_images/). Our educational materials available on the HiRISE EPO web site (http://hirise.seti.org/epo) include an assortment of K through college level, standards-based activity books, a K through 3 coloring/story book, a middle school level comic book, and several interactive educational games, including Mars jigsaw puzzles, crosswords, word searches and flash cards.

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Thorne, Karen M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Callaway, John C.; Takekawa, John Y.

2014-01-01

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

2007-01-01

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold state (e.g., dramatic change in barrier evolution, such as segmentation or disintegration) for some barrier island systems. The likelihood of the potential coastal responses is expressed using standard terminology employed in climate change assessments (e.g., as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and CCSP). This assessment was based on the coastal geomorphology in its present condition and does not consider any coastal protection that might be undertaken in the future. The committee recognized that a variety of erosion mitigation measures have been implemented along developed portions of the coast and these are very likely to be applied in the future. It was also acknowledged that economics, political will, and other factors can drive decisions to implement these measures, and that such decisions cannot be predicted with confidence. The results of this assessment are depicted graphically on maps of the study area.

Mean relative sea level rise along the coasts of the China Seas from mid-20th to 21st centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nan; Han, Guoqi; Yang, Jingsong

2018-01-01

Mean relative sea level (MRSL) rise has caused more frequent flooding in many parts of the world. The MRSL rise varies substantially from place to place. Here we use tide-gauge data and satellite measurements to examine past MRSL trends for the coasts of the China Seas. We then combine climate model output and satellite observations to provide MRSL projections in the 21st century. The MRSL trend based on tide-gauge data shows substantial regional variations, from 1 to 5 mm/yr. The vertical land motion (VLM) based on altimetry and tide-gauge (ATG) data indicates large land subsidence at some tide-gauge locations, consistent with the Global Positioning Systems (GPS)-based VLM but different significantly from small uplift estimated by a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, which suggests other important factors causing the VLM instead of the GIA process. When GPS- or ATG-based VLM estimates are used, the projected MRSL rise between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 at tide-gauge sites varies from 60 to 130 cm under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our projections are significantly larger than those of IPCC and other literature, as a result of accounting for the land subsidence derived from observations. Steric and dynamic ocean effects and land-ice melt effects are comparable (about 30 cm each) and do not vary much over the tide-gauge locations. The VLM effect varies from -10 to 60 cm. The projections between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under RCP4.5 show a similar spatial distribution to that under RCP8.5, with a smaller amount of rise by 18 cm on average for this region.

Multi-linear regression of sea level in the south west Pacific as a first step towards local sea level projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Vandhna; Meyssignac, Benoit; Melet, Angélique; Ganachaud, Alexandre

2017-04-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years is up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we attempt to reconstruct sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka, Noumea - Fiji and New Caledonia) as a mutiple-linear regression of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on interannual-to-decadal scale variability, and lower (including the global mean sea level rise) over the 1979-2014 period. Sea levels are taken from tide gauge records and the ORAS4 reanalysis dataset, and are expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes as a preliminary step. The key development in our methodology is using leading wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component. This is based on the knowledge that wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. The analysis is primarily based on correlation between local sea level and selected predictors, the dominant one being wind stress curl. In the first step, proxy boxes for wind stress curl are determined via regions of highest correlation. The proportion of sea level explained via linear regression is then removed, leaving a residual. This residual is then correlated with other locally acting potential predictors: halosteric sea level, the zonal and meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature. The statistically significant predictors are used in a multi-linear regression function to simulate the observed sea level. The method is able to reproduce between 40 to 80% of the variance in observed sea level. Based on the skill of the model, it has high potential in sea level projection and downscaling studies.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

PubMed

Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

2018-02-20

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

Paleohydrology of the southern Great Basin, with special reference to water table fluctuations beneath the Nevada Test Site during the late(?) Pleistocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winograd, Isaac Judah; Doty, Gene C.

1980-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude of water-table rise during Pleistocene pluvial climates, and of the resultant shortening of groundwater flow path and reduction in unsaturated zone thickness, is mandatory for a technical evaluation of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) or other arid zone sites as repositories for high-level or transuranic radioactive wastes. The distribution of calcitic veins filling fractures in alluvium, and of tufa deposits between the Ash Meadows spring discharge area and the Nevada Test Site indicates that discharge from the regional Paleozoic carbonate aquifer during the Late( ) Pleistocene pluvial periods may have occurred at an altitude about 50 meters higher than at present and 14 kilometers northeast of Ash Meadows. Use of the underflow equation (relating discharge to transmissivity, aquifer width, and hydraulic gradient), and various assumptions regarding pluvial recharge, transmissivity, and altitude of groundwater base level, suggest possible rises in potentiometric level in the carbonate aquifer of about -90 meters beneath central Frenchman Flat. During Wisconsin time the rise probably did not exceed 30 meters. Water-level rises beneath Frenchman Flat during future pluvials are unlikely to exceed 30 meters and might even be 10 meters lower than modern levels. Neither the cited rise in potentiometric level in the regional carbonate aquifer, nor the shortened flow path during the Late( ) Pleistocene preclude utilization of the NTS as a repository for high-level or transuranic-element radioactive wastes provided other requisite conditions are met as this site. Deep water tables, attendant thick (up to several hundred meter) unsaturated zones, and long groundwater flow paths characterized the region during the Wisconsin Stage and probably throughout the Pleistocene Epoch and are likely to so characterize it during future glacial periods. (USGS)

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee II, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Frazier, Melanie R; McCoy, Lee M; Clinton, Patrick J.; Clough, Jonathan S.

2014-01-01

The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Sea Level Rise, Rainfall and Coastal Flooding in Northeastern U.S. Cities Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, Philip Orton, Nickitas Georgas, Alan Blumberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gornitz, V.; Horton, R. M.; Orton, P. M.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.

2012-12-01

Populations and infrastructure along much of the northeastern coast of the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea level and storm surges over the coming century. This vulnerability is amplified by regional land subsidence and likely also by shifts in ocean circulation. Building upon recent studies for the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), New York State ClimAid assessment, and the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment, we report new regional sea level rise projections based on the latest CMIP-5 global climate models (GCMs) and RCP emission scenarios, adjusted for revised glacial ice melt contributions, and other factors such as gravitational effects, land water storage, and changes in the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Over the coming two years, GCM-derived sea level outputs for future decades will be utilized in risk assessments for coastal flooding in New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia, as part of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast-RISA project. The Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM) will be used to produce best estimates (including uncertainty ranges) of sea level rise impacts for a wide range of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones for the 2010s, 2050s, and 2080s. Major improvements over prior studies include (a) the use of a detailed, extensively validated ocean model, and (b) inclusion of rainfall and river flow influences on coastal flooding, which affect flood levels in enclosed tidal waterways (e.g., the Hudson and Delaware Rivers), and which are also likely important in coastal confluence zones of impermeable urbanized watersheds. In addition to the sea level rise results, we present initial model validation results for historical storms.

Plants Regulate Soil Organic Matter Decomposition in Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megonigal, P.; Mueller, P.; Jensen, K.

2014-12-01

Tidal wetlands have a large capacity for producing and storing organic matter, making their role in the global carbon budget disproportionate to their land area. Most of the organic matter stored in these systems is in soils where it contributes 2-5 times more to surface accretion than an equal mass of minerals. Soil organic matter (SOM) sequestration is the primary process by which tidal wetlands become perched high in the tidal frame, decreasing their vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise. Plant growth responses to sea level rise are well understood and represented in century-scale forecast models of soil surface elevation change. We understand far less about the response of soil organic matter decomposition to rapid sea level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea level on SOM decomposition rates by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland. SOM decomposition rate was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated with a two end-member δ13C-CO2 model. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to flood duration over a 35 cm range in soil surface elevation. However, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (R2≥0.59, p≤0.01). We conclude that soil carbon loss through decomposition is driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If this result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling soil organic matter and surface elevation change in response to accelerated sea level rise.

The social values at risk from sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au; Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au; Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au

Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values frommore » within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.« less

Education and Women's Labour Market Outcomes in India.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kingdon, Geeta Gandhi; Unni, Jeemol

2001-01-01

A study to determine association between level of female education and gender wage differentials in India finds that while gender-based wage discrimination exits, level of female education is not a significant factor. Finds return on investment rises with education level for both sexes. (Contains 37 references.) (PKP)

Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Vu, D T; Yamada, T; Ishidaira, H

2018-03-01

In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

Anticipating Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms in New York City (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Gornitz, V.; Bader, D.; Little, C. M.; Oppenheimer, M.; Patrick, L.; Orton, P. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

2013-12-01

Hurricane Sandy caused 43 fatalities in New York City and 19 billion in damages. Mayor Michael Bloomberg responded by convening the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2), to provide up-to-date climate information for the City's Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR). The Mayor's proposed 20 billion plan aims to strengthen the City's resilience to coastal inundation. Accordingly, the NPCC2 scientific and technical support team generated a suite of temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise and extreme event projections through the 2050s. The NPCC2 sea level rise projections include contributions from ocean thermal expansion, dynamic changes in sea surface height, mass changes in glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets, and land water storage. Local sea level changes induced by changes in ice mass include isostatic, gravitational, and rotational effects. Results are derived from CMIP5 model-based outputs, expert judgment, and literature surveys. Sea level at the Battery, lower Manhattan, is projected to rise by 7-31 in (17.8-78.7cm) by the 2050s relative to 2000-2004 (10 to 90 percentile). As a result, flood heights above NAVD88 for the 100-year storm (stillwater plus waves) would rise from 15.0 ft (0.71 m) in the 2000s to 15.6-17.6 ft (4.8-5.4 m) by the 2050s (10-90 percentile). The annual chance of today's 100-year flood would increase from 1 to 1.4-5.0 percent by the 2050s.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Monitoring and Management of Coastal Zones Which are Under Flooding Risk with Remote Sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Direk, S.; Seker, D. Z.; Musaoglu, N.; Gazioglu, C.

2012-12-01

Coastal zone areas play an important role in value to the welfare of nations and provides natural, social, cultural and economic benefits and increased quality of life. A great majority of the earth population live in coastal zone areas and they are under flooding risk due to tsunamies, storm surge, typhoon, sea level rise, precipitation and dam destruction. Global warming from the grenhouse effect raises sea level by expanding seawater, melting water and causing ice sheets to melt. Based on a selection of nine long, high quality tide gauge records, Holgate analyzed that the Mean Sea Level (MSL) rise over the period of 1904-2003 was found to be 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/year. Consider the whole century showed that the high decadal rates of change in global MSL was observed during the last 20 years of the records. Based on 4 tide gauge records in Marmara Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, Yildiz analyzed that MSL rise during 1984-2002 was found to be 9.6 ± 0.9 mm/year, 5.1 ± 1 mm/year and 8.7 ± 0.8 mm/year respectively. By analyzing the whole recorded data, it is found that the annual MSL rise in eastern mediterranean was 4-7 mm/year which was higher than the global prediction. A rise in sea level would accelerate coastal erosion, aggravate flooding, threaten coastal area structures and inundate wetlands. The salinity of rivers and bays would increase. A 1 meter in sea level rise would enable a 15-20 year storm to flood many areas. Higher water levels would reduce coastal drainage which would cause an increase flooding by rain storms. Finally, a rise in sea level would raise water tables and would flood basements. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a state of art technology and operationally being used more frequently by commercial and scientific society. GIS system provides a stable platform for the integration of data from different sources, allows a large quantity of data to be stored and processed, provides a seamless geographical database and provides a great flexibility for the display and visualization of data to a wider audience. Today GIS, plays a key role in monitoring and management procedures and re-shaping the environment. The capability of GIS in handling spatial data, presented new opportunities for adaptation of more cost-effective and efficient procedures. By using remote sensing and GIS, coastal zone could be monitored and managed more easily. The map/chart of interested coastal areas could be done more accurately and rapidly. Maps/charts of areas before and after flooding could be done by using satellites or areal images and the effect of damage could be analyzed in a short time.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Units of the National Park Service (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beavers, R. L.

2010-12-01

83 National Park Service (NPS) units contain nearly 12,000 miles of coastal, estuarine and Great Lakes shoreline and their associated resources. Iconic natural features exist along active shorelines in NPS units, including, e.g., Cape Cod, Padre Island, Hawaii Volcanoes, and the Everglades. Iconic cultural resources managed by NPS include the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse, Fort Sumter, the Golden Gate, and heiaus and fish traps along the coast of Hawaii. Impacts anticipated from sea level rise include inundation and flooding of beaches and low lying marshes, shoreline erosion of coastal areas, and saltwater intrusion into the water table. These impacts and other coastal hazards will threaten park beaches, marshes, and other resources and values; alter the viability of coastal roads; and require the NPS to re-evaluate the financial, safety, and environmental implications of maintaining current projects and implementing future projects in ocean and coastal parks in the context of sea level rise. Coastal erosion will increase as sea levels rise. Barrier islands along the coast of Louisiana and North Carolina may have already passed the threshold for maintaining island integrity in any scenario of sea level rise (U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Program Report 4.1). Consequently, sea level rise is expected to hasten the disappearance of historic coastal villages, coastal wetlands, forests, and beaches, and threaten coastal roads, homes, and businesses. While sea level is rising in most coastal parks, some parks are experiencing lower water levels due to isostatic rebound and lower lake levels. NPS funded a Coastal Vulnerability Project to evaluate the physical and geologic factors affecting 25 coastal parks. The USGS Open File Reports for each park are available at http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/. These reports were designed to inform park planning efforts. NPS conducted a Storm Vulnerability Project to provide ocean and coastal National Park units with Natural, Cultural and Historic Resource-based data products and management documents that will aid the parks in better managing aspects of storm-preparedness and post-storm response and recovery. These results as well as specific efforts to address vulnerability of NPS facilities and natural and cultural resources to sea level rise will be discussed. NPS is also coordinating with NOAA to fill a new position for coastal adaptation and apply the information learned from research, vulnerability studies, and work with partners to develop adaptation strategies for coastal and ocean parks. To adapt to sea level rise, NPS will develop strong policies, guidance, and interpretive materials to help parks take actions that will increase the resilience of ocean and coastal park biological and geologic resources, reduce inappropriate stressors and greenhouse gas emissions in ocean and coastal parks, and educate the public about the need for comprehensive, swift and effective measures that will help the NPS conserve ocean and coastal park resources for future generations.

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

2010-01-01

Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

Vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise.

PubMed

Hassaan, M A; Abdrabo, M A

2013-08-01

Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt's economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.

Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: Quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Khouakhi, Abdou; Niang-Diop, Isabelle

2009-06-01

As part of a broad assessment of climate change impacts in Morocco, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of coastal zones to sea-level rise was conducted. Tangier Bay which is the most important socio-economic pole in Northern Morocco represents one of the cases studies. Using a GIS-based inundation analysis and an erosion modelling approach, the potential physical vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise was investigated, and the most vulnerable socio-economic sectors were assessed. Results indicate that 10% and 24% of the area will be at risk of flooding respectively for minimum (4 m) and maximum (11 m) inundation levels. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the coastal defences and the port, the urban area, tourist coastal infrastructures, the railway, and the industrial area. Shoreline erosion would affect nearly 20% and 45% of the total beach areas respectively in 2050 and 2100. Potential response strategies and adaptation options identified include: sand dune fixation, beach nourishment and building of seawalls to protect the urban and industrial areas of high value. It was also recommended that an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the region, including upgrading awareness, building regulation and urban growth planning should be the most appropriate tool to ensure a long-term sustainable development, while addressing the vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise.

25 CFR 1000.363 - What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? 1000.363 Section 1000.363 Indians OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT... Trust Evaluations § 1000.363 What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? Where problems not rising to the level of imminent jeopardy are caused by...

25 CFR 1000.363 - What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? 1000.363 Section 1000.363 Indians OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT... Trust Evaluations § 1000.363 What if the trust evaluation reveals problems that do not rise to the level of imminent jeopardy? Where problems not rising to the level of imminent jeopardy are caused by...

Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

2014-12-01

Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

Glacier-surge mechanisms promoted by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Hagen, J. O.; Kääb, A.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2015-02-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2±1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2±2.6 Gt a-1. This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period 2003-2008, highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Future Wave Height Situation estimated by the Latest Climate Scenario around Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, D.; Yokoki, H.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yamano, H.; Kayanne, H.; Okajima, H.; Kawamiya, M.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise due to the global warming is significant phenomenon to coastal region in the world. Especially the atoll islands, which are low-lying and narrow, have high vulnerability against the sea-level rise. Recently the improved future climate projection (MIROC-ESM) was provided by JAMSTEC, which adopted the latest climate scenarios based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) of the green house gasses. Wave field simulation including the latest sea-level rise pathway by MIROC-ESM was conducted to understand the change of significant wave heights in Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, which was an important factor to manage the coast protection. MIROC-ESM provides monthly sea surface height in the fine gridded world (1.5 degree near the equator). Wave field simulation was conducted using the climate scenario of RCP45 in which the radioactive forcing of the end of 21st century was stabilized to 4.5 W/m2. Sea-level rise ratio of every 10 years was calculated based on the historical data set from 1850 to 2005 and the estimated data set from 2006 to 2100. In that case, the sea-level increases by 10cm after 100 years. In this study, the numerical simulation of wave field at the rate of sea-level rise was carried out using the SWAN model. The wave and wind conditions around Funafuti atoll is characterized by two seasons that are the trade (Apr. - Nov.) and non-trade (Jan. - Mar., Dec.) wind season. Then, we set up the two seasonal boundary conditions for one year's simulation, which were calculated from ECMWF reanalysis data. Simulated results of significant wave heights are analyzed by the increase rate (%) calculated from the base results (Average for 2000 - 2005) and the results of 2100. Calculated increase rate of the significant wave height for both seasons was extremely high on the reef-flat. Maximum increase rates of the trade and non-trade wind season were 1817% and 686%, respectively. The southern part of the atoll has high increasing rate through the two seasons. In the non-trade wind season, the northern tip and the southern part of the island were higher increase rate in the lagoon-side coasts, which was about 7%, and the average rate was 3.4%. On the other hand, the average rate in the trade wind season was 5.0%. Ocean side coast has high increase rate through the two seasons. Especially, the very large rate was calculated in the northern part of the Fongafale Island locally. The DEM data in the middle of Fongafale Island, which is most populated area in the island, showed that the northern oceanic coast has wide and high storm ridge and the increase rate was extremely large there. In such coasts, sea-level rise due to global warming has same effect as storm surge due to tropical cyclone in the point of increasing the sea-level, although the time scale of them is not same. Thus we can consider that the calculated area with large increase rate has already experienced the high wave due to tropical cyclone, which was enabled to construct the wide and high storm ridge. This result indicated that the effective coastal management under the sea-level rise needs to understand not only the quantitative estimation of the future situation but also the protect potential constructed by the present wave and wind condition.

Marshes to mudflats—Effects of sea-level rise on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, Karen M.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Freeman, Chase M.; Janousek, Christopher N.; Powelson, Katherine W.; Gutenspergen, Glenn R.; Takekawa, John Y.

2015-11-17

In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the effects of sea-level rise on nine tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon between 2012 and 2015, with the goal of providing scientific data to support future coastal planning and conservation. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, vegetation structure, as well as recent and historical sediment accretion rates, to assess and model how sea-level rise may alter these ecosystems in the future. Multiple factors, including initial elevation, marsh productivity, sediment availability, and rates of sea-level rise, affected marsh persistence. Under a low sea-level rise scenario, all marshes remained vegetated with little change in the present configuration of communities of marsh plants or gradually increased proportions of middle-, high-, or transition-elevation zones of marsh vegetation. However, at most sites, mid sea-level rise projections led to loss of habitat of middle and high marshes and a gain of low marshes. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, marshes at most sites eventually converted to intertidal mudflats. Two sites (Grays Harbor and Willapa) seemed to have the most resilience to a high rate of rise in sea-level, persisting as low marsh until at least 2110. Our main model finding is that most tidal marsh study sites are resilient to sea-level rise over the next 50–70 years, but that sea-level rise will eventually outpace marsh accretion and drown most habitats of high and middle marshes by 2110.

Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

2017-04-01

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Heki, K.

2017-12-01

Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

2010-06-01

A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

Elevated CO2 enhances biological contributions to elevation change in coastal wetlands by offsetting stressors associated with sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, J.A.; McKee, K.L.; Grace, J.B.

2009-01-01

1. Sea-level rise, one indirect consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2, poses a major challenge to long-term stability of coastal wetlands. An important question is whether direct effects of elevated CO 2 on the capacity of marsh plants to accrete organic material and to maintain surface elevations outweigh indirect negative effects of stressors associated with sea-level rise (salinity and flooding). 2. In this study, we used a mesocosm approach to examine potential direct and indirect effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration, salinity and flooding on elevation change in a brackish marsh community dominated by a C3 species, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a C4 grass, Spartina patens. This experimental design permitted identification of mechanisms and their role in controlling elevation change, and the development of models that can be tested in the field. 3. To test hypotheses related to CO2 and sea-level rise, we used conventional anova procedures in conjunction with structural equation modelling (SEM). SEM explained 78% of the variability in elevation change and showed the direct, positive effect of S. americanus production on elevation. The SEM indicated that C3 plant response was influenced by interactive effects between CO2 and salinity on plant growth, not a direct CO2 fertilization effect. Elevated CO2 ameliorated negative effects of salinity on S. americanus and enhanced biomass contribution to elevation. 4. The positive relationship between S. americanus production and elevation change can be explained by shoot-base expansion under elevated CO 2 conditions, which led to vertical soil displacement. While the response of this species may differ under other environmental conditions, shoot-base expansion and the general contribution of C3 plant production to elevation change may be an important mechanism contributing to soil expansion and elevation gain in other coastal wetlands. 5. Synthesis. Our results revealed previously unrecognized interactions and mechanisms contributing to marsh elevation change, including amelioration of salt stress by elevated CO2 and the importance of plant production and shoot-base expansion for elevation gain. Identification of biological processes contributing to elevation change is an important first step in developing comprehensive models that permit more accurate predictions of whether coastal marshes will persist with continued sea-level rise or become submerged. ?? 2008 The Authors.

A coastal hazards data base for the U.S. West Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gornitz, V.M.; Beaty, T.W.; Daniels, R.C.

1997-12-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the US West Coast that are at risk to sea-level rise. This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the US West Coast into 0.25{degree} latitude by 0.25{degree} longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion),more » tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.« less

Sea-level rise in New Jersey over the past 5000 years: Implications to anthropogenic changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kenneth G.; Sugarman, Peter J.; Browning, James V.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Stanley, Alissa; Kahn, Alicia; Uptegrove, Jane; Aucott, Michael

2009-01-01

We present a mid to late Holocene sea-level record derived from drilling the New Jersey coast that shows a relatively constant rise of 1.8??mm/yr from ~ 5000 to 500 calibrated calendar years before present (yrBP). This contrasts with previous New Jersey estimates that showed only 0.5??mm/yr rise since 2000??yrBP. Comparison with other Mid-Atlantic sea-level records (Delaware to southern New England) indicates surprising uniformity considering different proximities to the peripheral bulge of the Laurentide ice sheet, with a relative rise throughout the region of ~ 1.7-1.9??mm/yr since ~ 5000??yrBP. This regional sea-level rise includes both: 1) global sea-level (eustatic) rise; and 2) far-field geoidal subsidence (estimated as ~ 0.8-1.4??mm/yr today) due to removal of the Laurentide ice sheet and water loading. Correcting for geoidal subsidence, the U.S. east coast records suggest a global sea-level (eustatic) rise of ~ 0.4-1.0??mm/yr (with a best estimate of 0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr) since 5000??yrBP. Comparison with other records provides a best estimate of pre-anthropogenic global sea-level rise of < 1.0??mm/yr from 5000 until ~ 200??yrBP. Tide gauge data indicate a 20th century rate of eustatic rise of 1.8??mm/yr, whereas both tide gauge and satellite data suggest an increase in the rate of rise to ~ 3.3??mm/yr from 1993-2006 AD. This indicates that the modern rise (~ 3.3??mm/yr) is significantly higher than the pre-anthropogenic rise (0.7 ?? 0.3??mm/yr). ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C

PubMed Central

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P.; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C.

2016-01-01

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age. PMID:27821743

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C.

PubMed

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Riva, Riccardo E M; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C

2016-11-22

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This "2 °C" threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

Norfolk, Virginia—Planning to be the Coastal Community of the Future in a rising water environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homewood, G. M.

2017-12-01

Norfolk VA is the second most at-risk population center in North America from sea level rise while also being home to the world's largest naval base and one of the 3 largest east coast ports. Norfolk is one of the original cohort of cities in the 100 Resilient Cities effort pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation and has changed its sea level adaptation strategy from "keep the water out" to "living with water" through a ground-breaking community visioning process. In Norfolk, this means, among other goals, finding co-benefits in public and private investments and interventions—these can be environmental, economic, social, recreational or other things we have not yet thought about—and it is in this area that the geosciences can benefit Norfolk's planning for a rising water environment.

Archive, Access, and Supply of Scientifically Derived Data: A Data Model for Multi-Parameterized Querying Where Spectral Data Base Meets GIS-Based Mapping Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nass, A.; D'Amore, M.; Helbert, J.

2018-04-01

An archiving structure and reference level of derived and already published data supports the scientific community significantly by a constant rise of knowledge and understanding based on recent discussions within Information Science and Management.

Urban renewal based wind environment at pedestrian level in high-density and high-rise urban areas in Sai Ying Pun, Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J. W.; Zheng, J. Y.; Zhao, Y.; Shao, Y. H.; Yuan, F.

2017-11-01

In high-density and high-rise urban areas, pedestrian level winds contribute to improve comfort, safety and diffusion of heat in urban areas. Outdoor wind study is extremely vital and a prerequisite in high-density cities considering that the immediate pedestrian level wind environment is fundamentally impacted by the presence of a series of high-rise buildings. In this paper, the research site of Sai Ying Pun in Hong Kong will be analysed in terms of geography, climate and urban morphology, while the surrounding natural ventilation has also been simulated by the wind tunnel experiment Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It has found that, the existing problems in this district are the contradiction between planning control and commercial interests, which means some areas around tall buildings are not benefit to the residents because of the unhealthy wind environment. Therefore, some recommendation of urban renewal strategy has been provided.

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone. PMID:29536042

Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

2012-04-01

Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea level rising. Since relatively flat seashores where the slope is less than 1-2 degrees are much more common in Korea, it is expected that the quantity of fresh groundwater storage in most of the coastal region in Korea will be greatly reduced with sea level rise. Acknowledgement: This study is financially supported by BK21.

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

Comment [on “Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilkey, Orrin H.; Young, Robert S.; Bush, David M.

2000-01-01

Leatherman et al. [2000] (Eos, Trans., AGU, February 8, 2000, p.55) affirm that global eustatic sea-level rise is driving coastal erosion. Furthermore, they argue that the long-term average rate of shoreline retreat is 150 times the rate of sea-level rise. This rate, they say, is more than a magnitude greater than would be expected from a simple response to sea-level rise through inundation of the shoreline. We agree that sea-level rise is the primary factor causing shoreline retreat in stable coastal areas.This is intuitive. We also believe, however, that the Leatherman et al. [2000] study has greatly underestimated the rate of coastal recession along most low slope shorelines. Slopes along the North Carolina continental shelf/coastal plain approach 10,000:1. To us, this suggests that we should expect rates of shoreline recession 10,000 times the rate of sea-level rise through simple inundation of the shoreline.

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt marsh in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartima-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and overwash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year-1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year-1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year-1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year-1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year-1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sea-level rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year-1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S. patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution presented in this research, while the larger, low probability scenarios beyond this level are estimated to contribute a residual annual risk of approximately £0.45 million. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Consistent estimate of ocean warming, land ice melt and sea level rise from Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blazquez, Alejandro; Meyssignac, Benoît; Lemoine, Jean Michel

2016-04-01

Based on the sea level budget closure approach, this study investigates the consistency of observed Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) estimates from satellite altimetry, observed Ocean Thermal Expansion (OTE) estimates from in-situ hydrographic data (based on Argo for depth above 2000m and oceanic cruises below) and GRACE observations of land water storage and land ice melt for the period January 2004 to December 2014. The consistency between these datasets is a key issue if we want to constrain missing contributions to sea level rise such as the deep ocean contribution. Numerous previous studies have addressed this question by summing up the different contributions to sea level rise and comparing it to satellite altimetry observations (see for example Llovel et al. 2015, Dieng et al. 2015). Here we propose a novel approach which consists in correcting GRACE solutions over the ocean (essentially corrections of stripes and leakage from ice caps) with mass observations deduced from the difference between satellite altimetry GMSL and in-situ hydrographic data OTE estimates. We check that the resulting GRACE corrected solutions are consistent with original GRACE estimates of the geoid spherical harmonic coefficients within error bars and we compare the resulting GRACE estimates of land water storage and land ice melt with independent results from the literature. This method provides a new mass redistribution from GRACE consistent with observations from Altimetry and OTE. We test the sensibility of this method to the deep ocean contribution and the GIA models and propose best estimates.

Polar versus temperate grounding-line sedimentary systems and marine glacier stability during sea level rise by global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, R.D.; Pyne, A.R.; Hunter, L.E.

1992-01-01

Marine-ending glaciers may retreat with global warming as sea level rises by ocean thermal expansion. If the sea floor rises by sediment accumulation, then glaciers may not feel the effect of sea level rise. A submersible ROV and other techniques have been used to collect data from temperate and polar glaciers to compare sediment production and mass balance of their grounding-line systems. Temperature Alaskan valley glaciers flow at about 0.2--2 km/a and have high volumes of supraglacial, englacial and subglacial debris. However, most sediment contributed to the base of their tidewater cliffs comes from subglacial streams or squeezing out subglacialmore » sediment and pushing it with other marine sediment into a morainal bank. Blue Glacier, a thin, locally fed polar glacier in Antarctica, flows slowly and has minimal glacial debris. The grounding-line system at the tidewater cliff is a morainal bank that forms solely by pushing of marine sediment. An Antarctic polar outlet glacier, Mackay Glacier, terminating as a floating glacier-tongue, has similar volumes of basal debris to Alaskan temperature glaciers and flows at 250 m/a. However, no subglacial streams issued from Mackay's grounding line and all sedimentation was by rockfall and grainfall rainout from seawater undermelt of the tongue. A grounding-line wedge of glacimarine diamicton is deposited over subglacial (lodgement ) till. Although Antarctic grounding-line accumulation rates are three orders of magnitude smaller than Alaskan rates, both are capable of compensating for predicted rises in sea level by thermal heating from global warming.« less

Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago.

PubMed

Deschamps, Pierre; Durand, Nicolas; Bard, Edouard; Hamelin, Bruno; Camoin, Gilbert; Thomas, Alexander L; Henderson, Gideon M; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Yokoyama, Yusuke

2012-03-28

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20 metres, in less than 500 years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the Bølling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.

Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.

PubMed

Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick

2013-12-05

Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaulding, M. L.

2015-12-01

The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Elias, Edwin P.L.; Berkowitz, Paul

2015-01-01

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100, implying that physically plausible upper limits on future sea-level rise might need to be reconsidered.

Rising tides, rising gates: The complex ecogeomorphic response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise and human interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandi, Steven G.; Rodríguez, José F.; Saintilan, Neil; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia M.

2018-04-01

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to submergence due to sea-level rise, as shown by predictions of up to 80% of global wetland loss by the end of the century. Coastal wetlands with mixed mangrove-saltmarsh vegetation are particularly vulnerable because sea-level rise can promote mangrove encroachment on saltmarsh, reducing overall wetland biodiversity. Here we use an ecogeomorphic framework that incorporates hydrodynamic effects, mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics, and soil accretion processes to assess the effects of control structures on wetland evolution. Migration and accretion patterns of mangrove and saltmarsh are heavily dependent on topography and control structures. We find that current management practices that incorporate a fixed gate for the control of mangrove encroachment are useful initially, but soon become ineffective due to sea-level rise. Raising the gate, to counteract the effects of sea level rise and promote suitable hydrodynamic conditions, excludes mangrove and maintains saltmarsh over the entire simulation period of 100 years

Predicting the relatiave vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change using a rule-based ecoinformatics approach

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Near-coastal species are threatened by multiple climate change drivers, including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. To identify vulnerable habitats, geographic regions, and species, we developed a sequential, rule-based...

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.

Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

2013-12-01

Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study utilizes an upwelling diffusion energy balance model and focuses on the thermosteric part of sea-level rise. Example GSP results are 244, 15 and 278 for BC, CH4 and N2O for a time horizon of 100 years. Compare GWP and GTP values of 405, 24 and 288 as well as 62, 4.5 and 252. The main result of the study is that no climate forcer is in any absolute sense short lived when it comes to Sea Level impacts. All of the examined climate forcers have considerable influence on the thermosteric SLR, and the closely linked ocean heat content, on the time scale of centuries. The reason for this is that heat, once it has been induced by the climate drivers and warmed the surface ocean, is transported down into the slowly mixing oceans. References: Shindell, D. et al. Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183-189 (2012). Bond, T. C. et al. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 5380-5552 (2013). Hu, A., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Washington, W. M. & Ramanathan, V. Mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants slows sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 3, 730-734 (2013).

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Olympic National Park to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Hammar-Klose, Erika S.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Olympic National Park (OLYM), Washington. The CVI scores the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The Olympic National Park coast consists of rocky headlands, pocket beaches, glacial-fluvial features, and sand and gravel beaches. The Olympic coastline that is most vulnerable to sea-level rise are beaches in gently sloping areas.

Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.

2018-02-01

Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic processes, therefore the impacts are site specific in terms of distribution and magnitude.

Preliminary investigation of the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels in New Haven, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Mullaney, John R.; Stone, Janet R.; Skinner, Brian J.; Ramlow, Matthew A.

2012-01-01

Global sea level rose about 0.56 feet (ft) (170 millimeters (mm)) during the 20th century. Since the 1960s, sea level has risen at Bridgeport, Connecticut, about 0.38 ft (115 mm), at a rate of 0.008 ft (2.56 mm + or - 0.58 mm) per year. With regional subsidence, and with predicted global climate change, sea level is expected to continue to rise along the northeast coast of the United States through the 21st century. Increasing sea levels will cause groundwater levels in coastal areas to rise in order to adjust to the new conditions. Some regional climate models predict wetter climate in the northeastern United States under some scenarios. Scenarios for the resulting higher groundwater levels have the potential to inundate underground infrastructure in lowlying coastal cities. New Haven is a coastal city in Connecticut surrounded and bisected by tidally affected waters. Monitoring of water levels in wells in New Haven from August 2009 to July 2010 indicates the complex effects of urban influence on groundwater levels. The response of groundwater levels to recharge and season varied considerably from well to well. Groundwater temperatures varied seasonally, but were warmer than what was typical for Connecticut, and they seem to reflect the influence of the urban setting, including the effects of conduits for underground utilities. Specific conductance was elevated in many of the wells, indicating the influence of urban activities or seawater in Long Island Sound. A preliminary steady-state model of groundwater flow for part of New Haven was constructed using MODFLOW to simulate current groundwater levels (2009-2010) and future groundwater levels based on scenarios with a rise of 3 ft (0.91 meters (m)) in sea level, which is predicted for the end of the 21st century. An additional simulation was run assuming a 3-ft rise in sea level combined with a 12-percent increase in groundwater recharge. The model was constructed from existing hydrogeologic information for the New Haven area and from new information on groundwater levels collected during October 2009-June 2010. For the scenario with a 3-ft rise in sea level and no increase in recharge, simulated groundwater levels near the coast rose 3 ft; this increased water level tapered off toward a discharge area at the only nontidal stream in the study area. Simulated stream discharge increased at the nontidal stream because of the increased gradient. Although groundwater levels rose, the simulated difference between the groundwater levels in the aquifer and the increased sea level declined, indicating that the depth to the interface between freshwater and saltwater may possibly decline. Simulated water levels were affected by rise in sea level even in areas where the water table was at 17-24 ft (5.2-7.3 m) above current (2011) sea level. For the scenario with increased recharge, simulated groundwater levels were as much as an additional foot higher at some locations in the study area. The results of this preliminary investigation indicate that groundwater levels in coastal areas can be expected to rise and may rise higher if groundwater recharge also increases. This finding has implications for the disposal of stormwater through infiltration, a low-impact development practice designed to improve water quality and reduce overland peak discharge. Other implications include increased risk of basement flooding and increased groundwater seepage into underground sewer pipes and utility corridors in some areas. These implications will present engineering challenges to New Haven and Yale University. The preliminary model developed for this study can be the starting point for further simulation of future alternative scenarios for sea-level rise and recharge. Further simulations could identify those areas of New Haven where infrastructure may be at greatest risk from rising levels of groundwater. The simulations described in this report have limitations due to the preliminary scope of the work. Approaches to improve simulations include but are not limited to incorporating: * The variable density of seawater into the model in order to understand the current and future location of the interface between freshwater and saltwater; * Collection of additional data in order to better resolve temporal and spatial patterns in water levels in the aquifer; * Improved estimates of recharge through direct and indirect measurements of freshwater discharge from the study area; and * Transient simulations for greater understanding of the amount of time required for water levels and the position of the interface between freshwater and saltwater to adjust to changes in sea level and recharge.

A Transonic Wind-Tunnel Investigation of a Seaplane Configuration having a 40 Deg Sweptback Wing, TED No. NACA DE 387

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hieser, Gerald; Kudlacik, Louis; Gray, W. H.

1956-01-01

During the course of an aerodynamic loads investigation of a model of the Martin XP6M-1 flying boat in the.Langley 16-foot transonic tunnel, longitudinal-aerodynamic-performance information was obtained. Data were obtained at speeds up to and exceeding those anticipated for the seaplane in level flight and included the Mach number range from 0.84. to 1.09. The angle of attack was varied from -2deg to 6deg and the average Reynolds number, based on wing mean aerodyn&ic chord, was about 3.7 x 10(exp 6). This seaplane, although not designed to maintain level flight at Mach numbers beyond the force break, was found to have a transonic drag-rise coefficient of 0.0728, with an accompanying drag-rise Mach number of about 0.85. A large portion of the.drag rise and the relatively low value of drag-rise Mach number result from the axial coincidence of the maximum areas of the principal airplane components.

COREDAR: COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation stRategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Andimuthu, R.; Kandasamy, P.

2015-12-01

Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is a major long term outcome of climate change leading to increased inundation of low-lying areas. Particularly, global cities that are located on or near the coasts are often situated in low lying areas and these locations put global cities at greater risk to SLR. Localized flooding will profoundly impact vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban areas. Building community resilience and adapting to SLR is increasingly a high priority for cities. On the other hand, Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in decision making process. Importantly, Community Based Adaptation (CBA) experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a community's unique perceptions of their adaptive capacities to identify useful solutions and that scientific and technical information on anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable language and format that allows people to be able to participate in adaptation planning. To address this challenge, this study has put forth three research questions from the lens of urban community engagement in SLR adaptation, (1) What, if any, community engagement in addressing SLR occurring in urban areas; (2) What information do communities need and how does it need to be communicated, in order to be better prepared and have a greater sense of agency? and (3) How can government agencies from city to federal levels facilitate community engagement and action?. To answer these questions this study has evolved a framework "COREDAR" (COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation StRategies) to communicate and transfer complex climate data and information such as projected SLR under different scenarios of IPCC AR5, predicted impact of SLR, prioritizing vulnerability, etc. to concerned stakeholders and local communities, and to engage them in framing actionable urban CBA adaptation strategies to rising sea-level. Thus, this study seeks to provide insights on communicating risk of climate change (SLR) and to develop a robust picture of urban CBA through effective decision making that are grounded in pressing community priorities in a case study approach.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Rise and Shock: Optimal Defibrillator Placement in a High-rise Building.

PubMed

Chan, Timothy C Y

2017-01-01

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in high-rise buildings experience lower survival and longer delays until paramedic arrival. Use of publicly accessible automated external defibrillators (AED) can improve survival, but "vertical" placement has not been studied. We aim to determine whether elevator-based or lobby-based AED placement results in shorter vertical distance travelled ("response distance") to OHCAs in a high-rise building. We developed a model of a single-elevator, n-floor high-rise building. We calculated and compared the average distance from AED to floor of arrest for the two AED locations. We modeled OHCA occurrences using floor-specific Poisson processes, the risk of OHCA on the ground floor (λ 1 ) and the risk on any above-ground floor (λ). The elevator was modeled with an override function enabling direct travel to the target floor. The elevator location upon override was modeled as a discrete uniform random variable. Calculations used the laws of probability. Elevator-based AED placement had shorter average response distance if the number of floors (n) in the building exceeded three quarters of the ratio of ground-floor OHCA risk to above-ground floor risk (λ 1 /λ) plus one half (n ≥ 3λ 1 /4λ + 0.5). Otherwise, a lobby-based AED had shorter average response distance. If OHCA risk on each floor was equal, an elevator-based AED had shorter average response distance. Elevator-based AEDs travel less vertical distance to OHCAs in tall buildings or those with uniform vertical risk, while lobby-based AEDs travel less vertical distance in buildings with substantial lobby, underground, and nearby street-level traffic and OHCA risk.

Safety Rises to New Levels.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lafo, Joseph; Robillard, Marc

2001-01-01

Explains how high-rise residence halls can provide high-level safety and security at colleges and universities. Boston University is used to illustrate high-rise security and fire protection issues. (GR)

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Constraints from the Seychelles on the Timing and Magnitude of Peak Global Mean Sea Level during the Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyverberg, K.; Dechnik, B.; Dutton, A.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.; Edwards, R. L.

2016-12-01

Projecting the rate of future sea-level rise remains a primary challenge associated with continued climate change. However, uncertainties remain in our understanding of the rate of polar ice sheet retreat in warmer-than-present climates. To address this issue, we present a new sea level reconstruction from the tectonically stable granitic Seychelles based on Last Interglacial coral ages and elevations within their sedimentary and stratigraphic context, including estimates of paleo-water depth based on newly defined coralgal assemblages. The reef facies analyzed here has a narrow and shallow paleowater depth range (<2 m) providing increased control on the absolute position of sea level during this time period. Corrected for local glacial isostatic adjustment effects including the fingerprint associated with polar ice sheet mass loss, corals found in primary growth position within in situ coralgal reef framework confirm that global mean sea level (GMSL) was nearly 6 m above present early in the interglacial period. Each coral was dated in triplicate and screened for anomalous U-series geochemistry parameters. The combination of age-elevation data with the sedimentary micro and macro facies and stratigraphic analysis reveals a sea-level rise over 5-6 thousand years that is punctuated by repeated episodes of reef disturbance. These episodes are marked stratigraphically by coral rubble layers or extensive lateral encrustations of Millepora sp. that are infested with coral-dwelling barnacles. These disturbance layers may have been generated through internal reef processes and/or external agents, including coral disease, bleaching, predation, hurricanes, or sub-aerial exposure. In total, these new observations provide improved constraints on the timing, magnitude, and rates of sea-level rise during the Last Interglacial.

Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, P.

2015-12-01

There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

Effects of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langevin, Christian D.; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise.

Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

2014-12-01

Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

Climate-related relative sea-level changes from Chesapeake Bay, U.S. Atlantic coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Timothy; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Cahill, Niamh; Mann, Michael; Engelhart, Simon; Kopp, Robert; Brain, Matthew; Clear, Jennifer; Corbett, Reide; Nikitina, Daria; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Walker, Jennifer

2017-04-01

Proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea level (RSL) from the coastlines of the North Atlantic have revealed spatial and temporal variability in the rates of RSL rise during periods of known Late-Holocene climatic variability. Regional driving mechanisms for such variability include glacial isostatic adjustment, static-equilibrium of land-ice changes and/or ocean dynamic effects as well as more localized factors (e.g. sediment compaction and tidal range change). We present a 4000-year RSL reconstruction from salt-marsh sediments of the Chesapeake Bay using a foraminiferal-based transfer function and a composite chronology. A local contemporary training set of foraminifera was developed to calibrate fossil counterparts and provide estimates of paleo marsh elevation with vertical uncertainties of ±0.06m. A composite chronology combining 30 radiocarbon dates, pollen chronohorizons, regional pollution histories, and short-lived radionuclides was placed into a Bayesian age-depth framework yielding low temporal uncertainties averaging 40 years. A compression-only geotechnical model was applied to decompact the RSL record. We coupled the proxy reconstruction with direct observations from nearby tide gauge records before rates of RSL rise were quantified through application of an Errors-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process model. The RSL history for Chesapeake Bay shows 6 m of rise since 2000 BCE. Between 2000 BCE and 1300 BCE, rates of RSL increasing to 1.4 mm/yr precede a significant decrease to 0.8 mm/yr at 700 BCE. This minimum coincides with widespread climate cooling identified in multiple paleoclimate archives of the North Atlantic. An increase in the rate of RSL rise to 2.1 mm/yr at 200 CE similarly precedes a decrease in the rate of RSL rise at 1450 CE (1.3 mm/yr) that coincides with the Little Ice Age. Modern rates of RSL rise (3.6 mm/yr) are the fastest observed in the past 4000 years. The temporal length and decadal resolution of the RSL reconstruction further reconciles the response of sea levels to late Holocene climate variability.

A search for scale in sea-level studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, C.E.; Clark, I.

2006-01-01

Many researchers assume a proportional relationship among the atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level. Thus, the rate of sea-level rise should increase in concert with the documented exponential increase in CO2. Although sea surface temperature has increased in places over the past century and short-term sea level rose abruptly during the 1990s, it is difficult to demonstrate a proportional relationship using existing geologic or historic records. Tide gauge records in the United States cover too short a time interval to verify acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, although multicentury tide gauge and staff records from the Netherlands and Sweden suggest a mid-19th-century acceleration in sea-level rise. Reconstructions of sea-level changes for the past 1000 years derived using benthic foraminifer data from salt marshes along the East Coast of the United States suggest an increased rate of relative sea-level rise beginning in the 1600s. Geologic records of relative sea-level rise for the past 6000 years are available for several sites along the US East Coast from 14C-dated basal peat below salt marshes and estuarine sediments. When these three scales of sea-level variation are integrated, adjusted for postglacial isostatic movement, and replotted, the range of variation in sea level suggested by basal peat ages is within ??1 meter of the long-term trend. The reconstruction from Long Island Sound data shows a linear rise in sea level beginning in the mid-1600s at a rate consistent with the historic record of mean high water. Long-term tide gauge records from Europe and North America show similar trends since the mid-19th century. There is no clear proportional exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. If proportionality exists among sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, there may be a significant time lag before an anthropogenic increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurs.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.

2011-01-01

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

2011-05-31

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology

EPA Science Inventory

Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats inc...

Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise At The Regional Scale: The Bangladesh Sea-Level Project (BanD-AID)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Guo, J.; Shang, K.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Valty, P.; Kusche, J.; Hossain, F.; Khan, Z. H.; Rietbroek, R.; Uebbing, B.

2014-12-01

The potential for accelerated sea-level rise under anthropogenic warming is a significant societal problem, in particular in world's coastal deltaic regions where about half of the world's population resides. Quantifying geophysical sources of sea-level rise with the goal of improved projection at local scales remains a complex and challenging interdisciplinary research problem. These processes include ice-sheet/glacier ablations, steric sea-level, solid Earth uplift or subsidence due to GIA, tectonics, sediment loading or anthropogenic causes, hydrologic imbalance, and human processes including water retention in reservoirs and aquifer extraction. The 2013 IPCC AR5 concluded that the observed and explained geophysical causes of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1993-2010, is closer towards closure. However, the discrepancy reveals that circa 1.3→37.5% of the observed sea-level rise remains unexplained. This relatively large discrepancy is primarily attributable to the wide range of estimates of respective contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and mountain/peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise. Understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing solid Earth (land, islands and sea-floor) uplift or subsidence at the regional and local scales remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to relative sea-level rise hazards, such as the Bangladesh Delta. This study focuses on addressing coastal vulnerability of Bangladesh, a Belmont Forum/IGFA project, BanD-AID (http://Belmont-SeaLevel.org). Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability, affecting 150 million people in one of the world's most densely populated regions. Here we present preliminary results using space geodetic observations, including satellite radar and laser altimetry, GRACE gravity, tide gauge, hydrographic, and GPS/InSAR observed land subsidence, and via fingerprint sea-level adjustment and reconstructed sea-level approaches, for improved quantification of major contributions to, and the projection of relative sea-level rise at the Bangladesh delta, towards addressing its coastal vulnerability and sustainability.

Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

2016-02-01

Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021-2030) to implement both the safety and the transformation and development of the city.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) consists of relatively stable to washover-dominated portions of carbonate beach and man-made fortification. The areas within Dry Tortugas that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest wave energy.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Theiler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

2010-12-01

Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

Land subsidence and relative sea-level rise in the southern Chesapeake Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, Jack; Pope, Jason

2013-01-01

The southern Chesapeake Bay region is experiencing land subsidence and rising water levels due to global sea-level rise; land subsidence and rising water levels combine to cause relative sea-level rise. Land subsidence has been observed since the 1940s in the southern Chesapeake Bay region at rates of 1.1 to 4.8 millimeters per year (mm/yr), and subsidence continues today. This land subsidence helps explain why the region has the highest rates of sea-level rise on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Data indicate that land subsidence has been responsible for more than half the relative sea-level rise measured in the region. Land subsidence increases the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, which in turn has important economic, environmental, and human health consequences for the heavily populated and ecologically important southern Chesapeake Bay region. The aquifer system in the region has been compacted by extensive groundwater pumping in the region at rates of 1.5- to 3.7-mm/yr; this compaction accounts for more than half of observed land subsidence in the region. Glacial isostatic adjustment, or the flexing of the Earth’s crust in response to glacier formation and melting, also likely contributes to land subsidence in the region.

Rise of Buoyant Emissions from Low-Level Sources in the Presence of Upstream and Downstream Obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournazeri, Sam; Princevac, Marko; Venkatram, Akula

2012-08-01

Field and laboratory studies have been conducted to investigate the effect of surrounding buildings on the plume rise from low-level buoyant sources, such as distributed power generators. The field experiments were conducted in Palm Springs, California, USA in November 2010 and plume rise from a 9.3 m stack was measured. In addition to the field study, a laboratory study was conducted in a water channel to investigate the effects of surrounding buildings on plume rise under relatively high wind-speed conditions. Different building geometries and source conditions were tested. The experiments revealed that plume rise from low-level buoyant sources is highly affected by the complex flows induced by buildings stationed upstream and downstream of the source. The laboratory results were compared with predictions from a newly developed numerical plume-rise model. Using the flow measurements associated with each building configuration, the numerical model accurately predicted plume rise from low-level buoyant sources that are influenced by buildings. This numerical plume rise model can be used as a part of a computational fluid dynamics model.

The Global Experience of Deployment of Energy-Efficient Technologies in High-Rise Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potienko, Natalia D.; Kuznetsova, Anna A.; Solyakova, Darya N.; Klyueva, Yulia E.

2018-03-01

The objective of this research is to examine issues related to the increasing importance of energy-efficient technologies in high-rise construction. The aim of the paper is to investigate modern approaches to building design that involve implementation of various energy-saving technologies in diverse climates and at different structural levels, including the levels of urban development, functionality, planning, construction and engineering. The research methodology is based on the comprehensive analysis of the advanced global expertise in the design and construction of energy-efficient high-rise buildings, with the examination of their positive and negative features. The research also defines the basic principles of energy-efficient architecture. Besides, it draws parallels between the climate characteristics of countries that lead in the field of energy-efficient high-rise construction, on the one hand, and the climate in Russia, on the other, which makes it possible to use the vast experience of many countries, wholly or partially. The paper also gives an analytical review of the results arrived at by implementing energy efficiency principles into high-rise architecture. The study findings determine the impact of energy-efficient technologies on high-rise architecture and planning solutions. In conclusion, the research states that, apart from aesthetic and compositional interpretation of architectural forms, an architect nowadays has to address the task of finding a synthesis between technological and architectural solutions, which requires knowledge of advanced technologies. The study findings reveal that the implementation of modern energy-efficient technologies into high-rise construction is of immediate interest and is sure to bring long-term benefits.

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt march in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartina-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and over-wash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events, and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year -1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year -1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year -1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year -1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year -1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sealevel rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year -1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S.patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Blake, Reginald; Bowman, Malcolm; Faris, Craig; Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Jacob, Klaus; LeBlanc, Alice; Leichenko, Robin;

Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, M.; Martínez, C. A.; Marzo, O.

2015-03-01

The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

On the design of high-rise buildings with a specified level of reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolganov, Andrey; Kagan, Pavel

2018-03-01

High-rise buildings have a specificity, which significantly distinguishes them from traditional buildings of high-rise and multi-storey buildings. Steel structures in high-rise buildings are advisable to be used in earthquake-proof regions, since steel, due to its plasticity, provides damping of the kinetic energy of seismic impacts. These aspects should be taken into account when choosing a structural scheme of a high-rise building and designing load-bearing structures. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of structures. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. The article shows the possibility of designing metal structures of high-rise buildings with specified reliability. Currently, modern regulatory documents do not quantify the reliability of high-rise buildings. Although the problem of assigning an optimal level of reliability has existed for a long time. It is proposed to establish the value of reliability 0.99865 (3σ) for constructions of buildings and structures of a normal level of responsibility in calculations for the first group of limiting states. For increased (construction of high-rise buildings) and reduced levels of responsibility for the provision of load-bearing capacity, it is proposed to assign respectively 0.99997 (4σ) and 0.97725 (2σ). The coefficients of the use of the cross section of a metal beam for different levels of security are given.

Absolute Sea-level Changes Derived from Integrated Geodetic Datasets (1955-2016) in the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Wang, G.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

Rising sea level has important direct impacts on coastal and island regions such as the Caribbean where the influence of sea-level rise is becoming more apparent. The Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea adjacent to the landmasses of South and Central America to the south and west, and the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles separate it from the Atlantic Ocean to the north and east. The work focus on studying the relative and absolute sea-level changes by integrating tide gauge, GPS, and satellite altimetry datasets (1955-2016) within the Caribbean Sea. Further, the two main components of absolute sea-level change, ocean mass and steric sea-level changes, are respectively studied using GRACE, temperature, and salinity datasets (1955-2016). According to the analysis conducted, the sea-level change rates have considerable temporal and spatial variations, and estimates may be subject to the techniques used and observation periods. The average absolute sea-level rise rate is 1.8±0.3 mm/year for the period from 1955 to 2015 according to the integrated tide gauge and GPS observations; the average absolute sea-level rise rate is 3.5±0.6 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2016 according to the satellite altimetry observations. This study shows that the absolute sea-level change budget in the Caribbean Sea is closed in the periods from 1955 to 2016, in which ocean mass change dominates the absolute sea-level rise. The absolute sea-level change budget is also closed in the periods from 2004 to 2016, in which steric sea-level rise dominates the absolute sea-level rise.

Steric sea level change in the Bay of Bengal: investigating the most variable component of sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Shum, Ck

2015-04-01

Regional sea level change is influenced by contributions from mass sources, like melting of glaciers and the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as steric contributions from changes in temperature and salinity of the oceans. Radar altimetry indicates a sea level trend in the Bay of Bengal of about 6 mm- yr over the time period of 2002-2014, which is significantly larger than the global mean trend. Here, we explain 80% of this rise by steric contributions and 20% by mass-related contributions. The increased rise of sea level in the Bay of Bengal threatens the coastal vulnerability of the surrounding countries like Bangladesh, where this effect is exacerbated in combination with land subsidence of the very low lying coastal areas. The BanD-AID (Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation) project tries to assess the current and future sea level rise and its impacts on the people living in the threatened coastal areas. As a part of this, it is necessary to analyze the different mass and steric contributors to the total sea level rise to aid in the prediction of future risks. We use data from radar altimetry and the GRACE mission to separate the total sea level rise into contributions from mass sources and steric changes. In our approach, temporal GRACE gravity data and Jason-1 and -2 along track altimetry data are fitted to time invariant spatial patterns (fingerprints) to avoid problems with GRACE resolution, filtering, geocenter and related issues. Our results show that in the Bay of Bengal the steric component is influenced by annual and interannual phenomena and, at the same time, it is significantly larger compared to the individual mass contributions, which show a linear and relatively stable behavior over time. We validate the steric component of our inversion by comparing it to independent steric estimates from 4-D gridded temperature and salinity products from different ARGO processing facilities. We also compare to the classical approach of subtracting the mass component, estimated by GRACE, from the total sea level change, measured by altimetry. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of our inversion to the normalized steric fingerprints, which are either based on ARGO fields or derived from ocean modeling. While most steric changes are taking place in the upper 700 m of the ocean, our inversion also allows us to (indirectly) assess the influence from the deep ocean, which is not negligible for the total steric trend.

A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

2018-03-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Bruce C.

Twentieth-century relative sea level rise shows considerable variability along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Local rates of rise lie in the range of about 1.5 to more than 4 mm per year for records from Key West, Florida, to New York City. Rates of sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico can be much higher. In Texas and Louisiana, long-term water levels are rising up to about 10 mm per year. This is having disastrous consequences in the form of wetlands loss in the region, estimated to be as much as 65 km2 per year in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana alone. Beach erosion is also significant along both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, resulting in ever-increasing exposure of fixed structures to the damaging impacts of storms. The especially high rates of sea level rise in Louisiana and Texas are a result of their particular geomorphology, and anthropogenic alterations in the form of sediment diversion and withdrawal of underground fluids. The average long-term local rate of sea level rise on the rest of the U.S. East and Gulf coasts when corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment is about 2 mm per year, in conformity with 20th century global sea level rise. U.S. East and Gulf coast tide gauge records also have regionally coherent low frequency (decadal and longer) variations that need to be understood because of their impact on wetlands loss, and to enable accurate determination of long-term trends of sea level rise.

Influences of Relative Sea-Level Rise and Mississippi River Delta Plain Evolution on the Holocene Middle Amite River, Southeastern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Autin, W.J.

1993-01-01

The Holocene geomorphic history of southeastern Louisiana's middle Amite River is recorded in the stratigraphy of three alloformations, identified in decreasing age as the Watson (WAT), Denham Springs (DS), and Magnolia Bridge (MAG). The WAT meander belt formed by at least 9000 yr B.P., when sea level was lower and the Amite River was tributary to a larger ancestral drainage basin. The DS became an active meander belt by at least 3000 yr B.P., in response to relative sea-level rise and eastward progradation of the Mississippi River delta plain. The MAG developed its meander belt, in part, during the European settlement of the drainage basin, and is now attempting to adjust to modern anthropogenic influences. Geomorphic influences on the middle Amite River floodplain have temporal and spatial components that induce regional- and local-scale effects. Regional extrinsic influences caused meander belt avulsion that produced alloformations. However, local influences produced intrinsic geomorphic thresholds that modified channel morphology within a meander belt but did not induce alloformation development. Base-level influences of the relative sea-level rise and the Mississippi River delta plain were so dominant that the effects of possible climate change were not recognized in the Holocene Amite River system.

Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

2015-12-01

A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

75 FR 1803 - Lower Florida Keys Refuges, Monroe County, FL

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-13

... fully assessed and the effect of climate change (e.g., sea level rise) is not known. We would protect... (e.g., hurricanes, wildfire) and global climate change, particularly sea level rise. Current ongoing... evaluate the potential impacts of sea level rise on the ecology of wading birds. Since a primary purpose of...

78 FR 49831 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-15

... Service (NPS) for the Florida leafwing and the pine rockland ecosystem, in general. Sea Level Rise... habitat. In the best case scenario, which assumes low sea level rise, high financial resources, proactive... human population. In the worst case scenario, which assumes high sea level rise, low financial resources...

Sea-level Rise Impacts on Oregon Estuaries: Biology and Hydrology - for posting on website

EPA Science Inventory

Estuaries are transitional ecosystems located at the margin of the land and ocean and as a result they are particularly sensitive to sea level rise and other climate drivers. In this presentation, we summarize the potential impacts of sea level rise on key estuarine habitats incl...

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future. This would allow them to plan ahead to reduce the level of risk to homes, industry, and infrastructure San Francisco International Airport will be most likely be flooded in the next 30 years. Blue lines indicate current Mean High Water Levels. Yellow lines indicate the Mean High Water level combined with flood levels for 2030. Green, 2050, and Red lines, 2100

Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

2016-11-01

Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Perrette, Mahé; Nicholls, Robert James; Tol, Richard S J; Marzeion, Ben; Fettweis, Xavier; Ionescu, Cezar; Levermann, Anders

2014-03-04

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.

The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

2015-12-01

Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Grant No. NA10OAR4170099. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of these organizations. The STOKES ARCC at the University of Central Florida provided computational resources for storm surge simulations.

Sea Level Driven Marsh Expansion in a Coupled Model of Marsh Erosion, Forest Retreat, and Human Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Walters, D. C.; Reay, W.; Carr, J.

2016-12-01

Salt marsh ecosystem services depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here, we present a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands, and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how connectivity between adjacent ecosystems influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that ecogeomorphic feedbacks tend to stabilize soil elevations relative to sea level rise so that changes in marsh size are determined mostly by the competition between ecological transitions at the upland boundary, and physical erosion at the seaward boundary. Salt marsh loss and natural flood protection is nearly inevitable under rapid sea level rise rates where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit marsh migration into uplands. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. Together, this behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise, and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention. Analysis of 19th century maps and modern photographs from the Chesapeake Bay region confirm that migration rates are more sensitive to sea level rise than erosion rate, and indicate that transgression has thus far allowed marshes to survive the fastest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast. This work suggests that the flux of organisms and sediment across adjacent ecosystems leads to an increase in system resilience that could not be inferred from studies that consider individual components of landscape change.

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

PubMed Central

Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon. PMID:26460051

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

PubMed

Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-11-03

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Sea level rise within the west of Arabian Gulf using tide gauge and continuous GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayhan, M. E.; Alothman, A.

2009-04-01

Arabian Gulf is connected to Indian Ocean and located in the south-west of the Zagros Trust Belt. To investigate sea level variations within the west of Arabian Gulf, monthly means of sea level at 13 tide gauges along the coast of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, available in the database of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), are studied. We analyzed individually the monthly means at each station, and estimated secular sea level rate by a robust linear trend fitting. We computed the average relative sea level rise rate of 1.96 ± 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf based on 4 stations spanning longer than 19 years. Vertical land motions are included into the relative sea level measurements at the tide gauges. Therefore sea level rates at the stations are corrected for vertical land motions using the ICE-5G v1.2 VM4 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model then we found the average sea level rise rate of 2.27 mm/yr. Bahrain International GPS Service (IGS) GPS station, which is close to the Mina Sulman tide gauge station in Bahrain, is the only continuous GPS station accessible in the region. The weekly GPS time series of vertical component at Bahrain IGS-GPS station referring to the ITRF97 from 1999.2 to 2008.6 are downloaded from http://www-gps.mit.edu/~tah/. We fitted a linear trend with an annual signal and one break to the GPS vertical time series and found a vertical land motion rate of 0.48 ± 0.11 mm/yr. Assuming the vertical rate at Bahrain IGS-GPS station represents the vertical rate at each of the other tide gauge stations studied here in the region, we computed average sea level rise rate of 2.44 ± 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf.

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels

PubMed Central

Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J.; Guinn, Steven M.; Engelhardt, Katharina A. M.; Sanders, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested. PMID:27788209

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

PubMed

Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J; Guinn, Steven M; Engelhardt, Katharina A M; Sanders, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.

Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

2011-01-01

SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

2012-08-01

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Effect of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida.

PubMed

Langevin, Christian D; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Relative sea-level rise as indicated by gage data along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Wilson, K.

2004-01-01

Global warming, or the increasing of earth's temperatures, leads to rising sea level as polar ice caps and mountain glaciers melt and ocean water undergoes thermal expansion. Tidal records collected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), Mobile District, at Gulfport, Biloxi, and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and at Mobile, Alabama, indicate trends of water-surface elevations increasing with time (relative sea-level rise). The trends indicated by the COE data were compared to relative sea-level trends indicated by the National Ocean Survey gages in the Gulf of Mexico. The average global rate of sea level rise has been suggested to approach about 2 mm/yr (0.007 ft/yr). Some leading scientists have suggested rates of sea level rise that are greater than 2 mm/yr, when accounting for effects of greenhouse gas emissions. As the sea level rises and inundates the coastal plain, structures along the existing coast and structures located in the back bays of estuaries will be even more adversely affected by future flooding. Also, if the land surface adjacent to the water also sinks due to soil compaction and other geologic processes (collectively call subsidence), additional land will be inundated. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Finite element thermal analysis of multispectral coatings for the ABL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Rashmi S.; Bettis, Jerry R.; Stewart, Alan F.; Bonsall, Lynn; Copland, James; Hughes, William; Echeverry, Juan C.

1999-04-01

The thermal response of a coated optical surface is an important consideration in the design of any high average power system. Finite element temperature distribution were calculated for both coating witness samples and calorimetry wafers and were compared to actual measured data under tightly controlled conditions. Coatings for ABL were deposited on various substrates including fused silica, ULE, Zerodur, and silicon. The witness samples were irradiate data high power levels at 1.315micrometers to evaluate laser damage thresholds and study absorption levels. Excellent agreement was obtained between temperature predictions and measured thermal response curves. When measured absorption values were not available, the code was used to predict coating absorption based on the measured temperature rise on the back surface. Using the finite element model, the damaging temperature rise can be predicted for a coating with known absorption based on run time, flux, and substrate material.

How will coastal sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.; Grinsted, A.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.

Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C

2017-10-19

Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.

Changes in environment, climate, land-use and population growth cause significant change in recharge on the western coast of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Angela; Weiß, Johannes

2013-04-01

Changes in climate, land-use and population do not necessarily lead to groundwater depletion, but could instead result in rising groundwater levels, which can cause severe problems. In the course of the refurbishment and expansion programme for the Holy City of Mecca (KSA), Jeddah Airport is being expanded to a greater capacity; in addition, rapid development of residential areas of Jeddah is underway. During the last, decade flash floods and rising groundwater levels have been observed. The latter are affecting the foundations of buildings due to uplift and corrosion by highly mineralized water. The primary objective of this study is investigate the causes of groundwater rise and to propose appropriate measures in order to keep the groundwater table below an acceptable level over the next 100 years. Groundwater hydrographs clearly show impacts of natural climatic and hydrologic changes over the last 30 years. Possibly reasons for groundwater rise in this arid area are climatic impacts by increased precipitation or from an enhanced recharge via wadi leakage or flood control reservoirs. In addition, anthropogenic impacts might arise from leakages from water supply and waste water systems. In order to identify and quantify possible contributions to groundwater recharge, a numerical groundwater model has been developed comprising a sound investigation of the local water balance. The model addresses an area of approximately 900 km around the city of Jeddah, reaching from the Red Sea to the catchment boundaries of adjacent wadis. Vertically three layers of alluvium, fractured and weathered rock are integrated. Information from many shallow boreholes and some deep boreholes comprising stratigraphy and hydraulic parameters is incorporated. The spatial distribution of recharge is taken from the analysis of existing and planned water supply and waste water networks. Knowledge from geophysical investigations about aquifer thickness and permeability was used for the transient calibration. Thus, from the groundwater rise with known storage coefficients the leakage was estimated and checked for plausibility. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis include the identification of key model parameters, the parameter ranges for the prediction of groundwater levels and the characterization of associated uncertainties. The modelling results show that indeed the anthropogenic recharge caused by leakage from water infrastructure is the most important source of groundwater level rise. Thus, to improve model accuracy, a methodology is needed to cope with limited data availability regarding the leakage from pipelines. For the design of future management strategies, modelling scenarios are used to quantify the factors with possible impacts on groundwater levels, including Red Sea water level rise due to climate change, as well as potentially significant changes in land use, water distribution systems, waste water management, storm water and flood control, and irrigation. The model results are used for the design of a field-based groundwater and surface water monitoring system. Based on these measurements, a decision support system for future groundwater control is planned to be integrated into the upgrade of the water and waste water master plan.

The coupling of bay hydrodynamics with sediment supply and micro-tidal wetland stability under high rates of relative sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Xu, K.; Restreppo, G. A.; Bentley, S. J.; Meng, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

Due to global sea level rise, local subsidence and sediment deficit, the Mississippi River (MR) deltaic plain has lost a total of 25% of coastal Louisiana's wetlands during the last century, leading to huge losses of ecological services, economic and social crises. Ecosystem-based restoration strategies which rely on coastal system processes and feedbacks are urgently needed. Understanding linkages between estuarine and coastal systems and the adjacent marshlands will help the designing strategies. To investigate bay hydrodynamics and its impacts on the adjacent micro-tidal wetland stability, hourly measurements of wave, tidal current, and benthic sediment concentration in summer, winter, and spring of 2015-2016 were conducted in Fourleague Bay, Louisiana, USA. The bay-marsh system has been stable for almost 80 years under high relative sea level rising rate, which is 11 km southeast of the Atchafalaya River mouth, with a water depth of 1-3 m. High-temporal resolution data indicate that benthic sediment resuspension is mainly caused by wind-driven waves with a dominant periodicity of 4.8 d. The sediment flux reaches 28 g·m-1·s-1 per unit depth in cm during the events. Net sediment transport is northwestward in summer, and southeastward in winter and spring. Sediment flux available for surrounding marsh varies from 0-500 g·m-1·s-1. An optimal inundation depth of 50 cm is estimated by the equilibrium wetland elevation change model under high relative sea level rising rate of 1.57 cm·yr-1. Seasonal variations of river discharge and wind direction (particularly speeds >3 m·s-1) greatly impact potential sediment contribution from bay to the surrounding wetlands. Three sediment transport regimes are concluded based on the seasonal variations of river discharge and wind direction: the `bypassing' season, the resuspension-accumulation season, and the combined `bypassing' and resuspension-accumulation season. The bay hydrodynamic processes and their impacts on the stability of surrounding wetlands fill in our knowledge gaps on how the micro tidal estuarine-marsh system responds to the fast relative sea level rise, and provide valuable information for future ecological restoration plans in the micro tidal deltas like the MR delta.

School-Based Programs Aimed at the Prevention and Treatment of Obesity: Evidence-Based Interventions for Youth in Latin America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lobelo, Felipe; Garcia de Quevedo, Isabel; Holub, Christina K.; Nagle, Brian J.; Arredondo, Elva M.; Barquera, Simon; Elder, John P.

2013-01-01

Background: Rapidly rising childhood obesity rates constitute a public health priority in Latin America which makes it imperative to develop evidence-based strategies. Schools are a promising setting but to date it is unclear how many school-based obesity interventions have been documented in Latin America and what level of evidence can be…

75 FR 28643 - Pine Island, Matlacha Pass, Island Bay, and Caloosahatchee National Wildlife Refuges, Lee and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-21

... would work with the partners to establish benchmarks to record sea level rise and beach profiles and... partners to establish benchmarks to record sea level rise and beach profiles and shoreline changes, which... establish benchmarks to record sea level rise and beach profiles and shoreline changes, which could...

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, M.; Temmerman, S.

2009-01-01

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

Applications of network analysis for adaptive management of artificial drainage systems in landscapes vulnerable to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, Benjamin; Goodall, Jonathan L.; Halpin, Patrick N.

2008-08-01

SummaryThe vulnerability of coastal landscapes to sea level rise is compounded by the existence of extensive artificial drainage networks initially built to lower water tables for agriculture, forestry, and human settlements. These drainage networks are found in landscapes with little topographic relief where channel flow is characterized by bi-directional movement across multiple time-scales and related to precipitation, wind, and tidal patterns. The current configuration of many artificial drainage networks exacerbates impacts associated with sea level rise such as salt-intrusion and increased flooding. This suggests that in the short-term, drainage networks might be managed to mitigate sea level rise related impacts. The challenge, however, is that hydrologic processes in regions where channel flow direction is weakly related to slope and topography require extensive parameterization for numerical models which is limited where network size is on the order of a hundred or more kilometers in total length. Here we present an application of graph theoretic algorithms to efficiently investigate network properties relevant to the management of a large artificial drainage system in coastal North Carolina, USA. We created a digital network model representing the observation network topology and four types of drainage features (canal, collector and field ditches, and streams). We applied betweenness-centrality concepts (using Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm) to determine major hydrologic flowpaths based off of hydraulic resistance. Following this, we identified sub-networks that could be managed independently using a community structure and modularity approach. Lastly, a betweenness-centrality algorithm was applied to identify major shoreline entry points to the network that disproportionately control water movement in and out of the network. We demonstrate that graph theory can be applied to solving management and monitoring problems associated with sea level rise for poorly understood drainage networks in advance of numerical methods.

Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

2011-01-01

Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

Simulation-based modeling of building complexes construction management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepelev, Aleksandr; Severova, Galina; Potashova, Irina

2018-03-01

The study reported here examines the experience in the development and implementation of business simulation games based on network planning and management of high-rise construction. Appropriate network models of different types and levels of detail have been developed; a simulation model including 51 blocks (11 stages combined in 4 units) is proposed.

A game of keep-away: feeding the fish and not the pond

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phytic acid is a storage form of phosphorus in many plants. Its levels rise in the diet along with the inclusion rate of plant-based materials. Our measurements have found that phytic acid levels can be as high as 2% of catfish diets (40 lbs/ton of feed). However, phytic acid is largely indigestib...

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City. Chapter 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A.; Orton, Philip; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City's ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28 - 53 cm by the 2050s and 46 - 99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000 - 2004 (mid-range, 25th - 75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9-4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0 - 5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

2017-12-01

Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes. Results from this analysis can provide actionable information needed for policy development and planning for coastal communities.

Forecasting sea cliff retreat in Southern California using process-based models and artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limber, P. W.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.

2016-02-01

Modeling coastal geomorphic change over multi-decadal time and regional spatial scales (i.e. >20 km alongshore) is in high demand due to rising global sea levels and heavily populated coastal zones, but is challenging for several reasons: adequate geomorphic and oceanographic data often does not exist over the entire study area or time period; models can be too computationally expensive; and model uncertainty is high. In the absence of rich datasets and unlimited computer processing power, researchers are forced to leverage existing data, however sparse, and find analytical methods that minimize computation time without sacrificing (too much) model reliability. Machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks, can assimilate and efficiently extrapolate geomorphic model behavior over large areas. They can also facilitate ensemble model forecasts over a broad range of parameter space, which is useful when a paucity of observational data inhibits the constraint of model parameters. Here, we assimilate the behavior of two established process-based sea cliff erosion and retreat models into a neural network to forecast the impacts of sea level rise on sea cliff retreat in Southern California ( 400 km) through the 21st century. Using inputs such as historical cliff retreat rates, mean wave power, and whether or not a beach is present, the neural network independently reproduces modeled sea cliff retreat as a function of sea level rise with a high degree of confidence (R2 > 0.9, mean squared error < 0.1 m yr-1). Results will continuously improve as more model scenarios are assimilated into the neural network, and more field data (i.e., cliff composition and rock hardness) becomes available to tune the cliff retreat models. Preliminary results suggest that sea level rise rates of 2 to 20 mm yr-1 during the next century could accelerate historical cliff retreat rates in Southern California by an average of 0.10 - 0.56 m yr-1.

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J

2006-07-15

The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

Using time lapse cameras to monitor shoreline changes due to sea level rise.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Shoreline habitats and infrastructure are currently being affected by sea level rise (SLR) and as : global temperatures continue to rise, will continue to get worse for millennia. Governments : and individuals decisions to adapt to SLR could ha...

Dtection of Sea Level Rise within the Arabian Gulf Using Space Based GNSS Measurements and Insitu Tide Gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alothman, Abdulaziz; Ayhan, Mehmet

In the 21st century, sea level rise is expected to be about 30 cm or even more (up to 60 cm). Saudi Arabia has very long coasts of about 3400 km and hundreds of islands. Therefore, sea level monitoring may be important in particular along coastal low lands on Red Sea and Arabian Gulf coasts. Arabian Gulf is connected to Indian Ocean and lying along a parallel course in the south-west of the Zagros Trust Belt. We expect vertical land motion within the area due to both tectonic structures of the Arabian Peninsula and oil production activities. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Continues observations were used to estimate the vertical crustal motion. Bahrain International GPS Service (IGS-GPS) station is the only continuous GPS station accessible in the region, and it is close to the Mina Sulman tide gauge station in Bahrain. The weekly GPS time series of vertical component at Bahrain IGS-GPS station referring to the ITRF97 from 1999.2 to 2008.6 are used in the computation. We fitted a linear trend with an annual signal and a break to the GPS vertical time series and found a vertical land motion rate of 0.46 0.11 mm/yr. To investigate sea level variation within the west of Arabian Gulf, monthly means of sea level at 13 tide gauges along the coast of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, available in the database of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), are studied. We analyzed separately the monthly mean sea level measurements at each station, and estimated secular sea level rate by a robust linear trend fitting. We computed the average relative sea level rise rate of 1.96 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf based on 4 stations spanning longer than 19 years. Sea level rates at the stations are first corrected for vertical land motion contamination using the ICE-5G v1.2 VM4 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, and the average sea level rate is found 2.27 0.21 mm/yr. Assuming the vertical rate at Bahrain IGS-GPS station represents the vertical rate at each of the other tide gauge stations studied here in the region, we computed average sea level rise rate of 2.42 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf.

Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

2015-12-01

Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the scientific challenges, some potential sub-glacial sedimentary targets, and a strategy for future drilling of sub-glacial sedimentary basins.

Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

2016-01-01

We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

Coastal Impact Underestimated From Rapid Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Milliken, Kristy; Wallace, Davin; Rodriguez, Antonio; Simms, Alexander

2010-06-01

A primary effect of global warming is accelerated sea level rise, which will eventually drown low-lying coastal areas, including some of the world's most populated cities. Predictions from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that sea level may rise by as much as 0.6 meter by 2100 [Solomon et al., 2007]. However, uncertainty remains about how projected melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will contribute to sea level rise. Further, considerable variability is introduced to these calculations due to coastal subsidence, especially along the northern Gulf of Mexico (see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml).

Integrating spatial data and shorebird nesting locations to predict the potential future impact of global warming on coastal habitats: A case study on Farasan Islands, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Alrashidi, Monif; Shobrak, Mohammed; Al-Eissa, Mohammed S; Székely, Tamás

2012-07-01

One of the expected effects of the global warming is changing coastal habitats by accelerating the rate of sea level rise. Coastal habitats support large number of marine and wetland species including shorebirds (plovers, sandpipers and allies). In this study, we investigate how coastal habitats may be impacted by sea level rise in the Farasan Islands, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We use Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus - a common coastal breeding shorebird - as an ecological model species to predict the influence of sea level rise. We found that any rise of sea level is likely to inundate 11% of Kentish plover nests. In addition, 5% of the coastal areas of Farasan Islands, which support 26% of Kentish plover nests, will be flooded, if sea level rises by one metre. Our results are constrained by the availability of data on both elevation and bird populations. Therefore, we recommend follow-up studies to model the impacts of sea level rise using different elevation scenarios, and the establishment of a monitoring programme for breeding shorebirds and seabirds in Farasan Islands to assess the impact of climate change on their populations.

Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of <100 km from the coast. The results suggest that the occurrence of continental slope failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.

Water-level altitudes 2011 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2010 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.; Kasmarek, Mark C.

2011-01-01

Most of the subsidence in the Houston–Galveston region has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers causing compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Harris–Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, and Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston–Galveston region. The report contains maps showing 2011 water-level altitudes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; maps showing 1-year (2010–11) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2006–11) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990–2011 and 1977–2011) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000–11) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the extensometers from 1973, or later, through 2010. Tables listing the data used to construct each aquifer-data map and the compaction graphs are included.Water levels in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers were measured during December 2010–February 2011. In 2011, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet below North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter, datum) in a small area in southwestern Harris County to 200 feet above datum in central to southwestern Montgomery County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 40-foot decline to a 33-foot rise (2010–11), from a 10-foot decline to an 80-foot rise (2006–11), from a 140-foot decline to a 100-foot rise (1990–2011), and from a 120-foot decline to a 200-foot rise (1977–2011). In 2011, water-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 300 feet below datum in north-central Harris County to 200 feet above datum at the boundary of Waller, Montgomery, and Grimes Counties. Water-level-altitude changes in the Evangeline aquifer ranged from a 43-foot decline to a 73-foot rise (2010–11), from a 40-foot decline to a 160-foot rise (2006–11), from a 200-foot decline to a 240-foot rise (1990–2011), and from a 340-foot decline to a 260-foot rise (1977–2011). In 2011, water-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer ranged from 200 feet below datum in south-central Montgomery County to 250 feet above datum in east-central Grimes County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Jasper aquifer ranged from a 45-foot decline to a 29-foot rise (2010–11), from a 90-foot decline to a 10-foot rise (2006–11), and from a 190-foot decline to no change (2000–11). Compaction of subsurface materials (mostly in the clay layers) composing the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers was recorded continuously at 13 borehole extensometers at 11 sites. For the period of record beginning in 1973, or later, and ending in December 2010, cumulative clay compaction data measured by 12 extensometers ranged from 0.100 foot at the Texas City–Moses Lake site to 3.544 foot at the Addicks site. The rate of compaction varies from site to site because of differences in groundwater withdrawals near each site and differences among sites in the clay-to-sand ratio in the subsurface materials. Therefore, it is not possible to extrapolate or infer a rate of clay compaction for an area based on the rate of compaction measured at a nearby extensometer.

A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

2015-12-01

Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.

Mid Holocene lake level and shoreline behavior during the Nipissing phase of the upper Great Lakes at Alpena, Michigan, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, T.A.; Lepper, K.; Endres, A.L.; Johnston, J.W.; Baedke, S.J.; Argyilan, E.P.; Booth, R.K.; Wilcox, D.A.

2011-01-01

The Nipissing phase was the last pre-modern high-water stage of the upper Great Lakes. Represented as either a one- or two-peak highstand, the Nipissing occurred following a long-term lake-level rise. This transgression was primarily an erosional event with only the final stage of the transgression preserved as barriers, spits, and strandplains of beach ridges. South of Alpena, Michigan, mid to late Holocene coastal deposits occur as a strandplain between Devils Lake and Lake Huron. The landward part of this strandplain is a higher elevation platform that formed during the final stage of lake-level rise to the Nipissing peak. The pre-Nipissing shoreline transgressed over Devils Lake lagoonal deposits from 6.4 to 6.1. ka. The first beach ridge formed ~ 6. ka, and then the shoreline advanced toward Lake Huron, producing beach ridges about every 70. years. This depositional regression produced a slightly thickening wedge of sediment during a lake-level rise that formed 20 beach ridges. The rise ended at 4.5. ka at the Nipissing peak. This peak was short-lived, as lake level fell > 4. m during the following 500. years. During this lake-level rise and subsequent fall, the shoreline underwent several forms of shoreline behavior, including erosional transgression, aggradation, depositional transgression, depositional regression, and forced regression. Other upper Great Lakes Nipissing platforms indicate that the lake-level change observed at Alpena of a rapid pre-Nipissing lake-level rise followed by a slower rise to the Nipissing peak, and a post-Nipissing rapid lake-level fall is representative of mid Holocene lake level in the upper Great Lakes. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

Research on particulate filter simulation and regeneration control strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawei, Qu; Jun, Li; Yu, Liu

2017-03-01

This paper reports a DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) collection mathematical model for a new regeneration control strategy. The new strategy is composed by main parts, such as regeneration time capturing, temperature rising strategy and regeneration control strategy. In the part of regeneration time capturing, a multi-level regeneration capturing method is put forward based on the combined effect of the PM (Particulate Matter) loading, pressure drop and fuel consumption. The temperature rising strategy proposes the global temperature for all operating conditions. The regeneration control process considers the particle loading density, temperature and oxygen respectively. Based on the analysis of the initial overheating, runaway temperature and local hot spot, the final control strategy is established.

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

2014-01-01

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Modelling coastal processes and morphological changes of the UK east coast in support of coastal decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaorong; Leonardi, Nicoletta; Brown, Jennifer; Plater, Andy

2017-04-01

The coastline of Eastern England is home to about one quarter of the UK's coastal habitats, including intertidal salt marshes, tidal flats and sand dunes. These geomorphic features are of great importance to the local wildlife, global biodiversity, marine environment and human society and economy. Due to sea-level rise and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, the coastline of Eastern England is under high risk of erosion and recession, which could lead to tidal inundation of sites such as the RSPB Minsmere Reserve and power generation infrastructure at Sizewell. This research responds to the need for sustainable shoreline management plans of the UK east coast through sensitivity studies at the Dunwich-Sizewell area, Suffolk, UK. Particular interest is on the long-term morphodynamic response of the study area to possible environmental variations associated with global climate change. Key coastal processes, i.e. current, waves and sediment transport, and morphological evolution are studied using a process-based numerical model under the following scenarios: current mean sea level + calm wave conditions, current mean sea level + storms, sea level rise + calm wave conditions, and sea level rise + storms, all with a 'do nothing' management plan which allows the coastal environment to exist and respond dynamically. As a further aspect of this research, rules will be generalized for reduced-complexity, system-based modelling. Alternative management plans, including 'managed realignment' and 'advance the line', are also investigated in this research under the same environmental forcing scenarios, for the purposes of protection of infrastructure of national importance and conservation of wetland habitats. Both 'hard' and 'soft' engineering options, such as groynes and beach nourishment respectively, are considered. A more ecohydrological option which utilizes aquatic plant communities for wave energy dissipation and sediment trapping is also studied. The last option requires the numerical models to be modified based on understandings obtained through analysis of on-site observations and laboratory measurements.

Processes contributing to resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to marsh by measuring processes controlling wetland elevation. We found that, over 5 years of measurement, TFFWs were resilient, although some marginally, and oligohaline marshes exhibited robust resilience to sea-level rise. We identified fundamental differences in how resilience is maintained across wetland community types, which have important implications for management activities that aim to restore or conserve resilient systems. We showed that the relative importance of surface and subsurface processes in controlling wetland surface elevation change differed between TFFWs and oligohaline marshes. The marshes had significantly higher rates of surface accretion than the TFFWs, and in the marshes, surface accretion was the primary contributor to elevation change. In contrast, elevation change in TFFWs was more heavily influenced by subsurface processes, such as root zone expansion or compaction, which played an important role in determining resilience of TFFWs to rising sea level. When root zone contributions were removed statistically from comparisons between relative sea-level rise and surface elevation change, sites that previously had elevation rate deficits showed a surplus. Therefore, assessments of wetland resilience that do not include subsurface processes will likely misjudge vulnerability to sea-level rise.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Fast ground-water mixing and basal recharge in an unconfined, alluvial aquifer, Konza LTER Site, Northeastern Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macpherson, G.L.; Sophocleous, M.

2004-01-01

Ground-water chemistry and water levels at three levels in a well nest were monitored biweekly for two and a half years in a shallow unconfined floodplain aquifer in order to study the dynamics of such shallow aquifers. The aquifer, in northeastern Kansas, consists of high porosity, low hydraulic conductivity fine-grained sediments dominated by silt and bounded by fractured limestone and shale bedrock. Results show that the aquifer underwent chemical stratification followed by homogenization three times during the study period. The length of time between maximum stratification and complete homogenization was 3-5 months. The chemical parameters most useful for demonstrating the mixing trends were dissolved nitrate and sulfate. Higher nitrate concentrations were typical of unsaturated zone water and were sourced from fertilizer applied to the cultivated fields on the floodplain. Variations in sulfate concentrations are attributed to dissolution of rare gypsum in limestone bedrock and variable evapoconcentration in the unsaturated zone. The mixing of three chemically different waters (entrained, unsaturated-zone water; water entering the base of the floodplain aquifer; and water in residence before each mixing event) was simulated. The resident water component for each mixing event was a fixed composition based on measured water chemistry in the intermediate part of the aquifer. The entrained water composition was calculated using a measured composition of the shallow part of the aquifer and measurements of soil-water content in the unsaturated zone. The incoming basal water composition and the fractions of each mixing component were fitted to match the measured chemistry at the three levels in the aquifer. A conceptual model for this site explains: (1) rapid water-level rises, (2) water-chemistry changes at all levels in the aquifer coincident with the water-level rises, (3) low measured hydraulic conductivity of the valley fill and apparent lack of preferential flow pathways, (4) minuscule amounts of unsaturated-zone recharge, and (5) dissolved oxygen peaks in the saturated zone lagging water-level peaks. We postulate that rainfall enters fractures in bedrock adjacent to the floodplain. This recharge water moves rapidly through the fractured bedrock into the base of the floodplain aquifer. The recharge event through the bedrock causes a rapid rise in water level in the floodplain aquifer, and the chemistry of the deepest water in the floodplain aquifer changes at that time. The rising water also entrains slow-moving, nitrate-rich, unsaturated-zone water, altering the chemistry of water in the shallow part of the aquifer. Vertical chemical stratification in the aquifer is thus created by the change in water chemistry in the upper and lower parts of the saturated zone. As the water level begins to decline, the aquifer undergoes mixing that eventually results in homogeneous water chemistry. The rise in water level from the recharge event also displaces gas from the unsaturated zone that is then replaced as the water level declines following the recharge event. This new, oxygen-rich vadose-zone air equilibrates rapidly with saturated-zone water, resulting in a dissolved oxygen pulse in the ground water that peaks one-half to 2 months after the water-level peak. This oxygen pulse subsequently declines over a period of 2-6 months. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global DEM Errors Underpredict Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin

2016-04-01

Elevation data based on NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) have been widely used to evaluate threats from global sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal floods. However, SRTM data are known to include large vertical errors in densely urban or densely vegetated areas. The errors may propagate to derived land and population exposure assessments. We compare assessments based on SRTM data against references employing high-accuracy bare-earth elevation data generated from lidar data available for coastal areas of the United States. We find that both 1-arcsecond and 3-arcsecond horizontal resolution SRTM data systemically underestimate exposure across all assessed spatial scales and up to at least 10m above the high tide line. At 3m, 1-arcsecond SRTM underestimates U.S. population exposure by more than 60%, and under-predicts population exposure in 90% of coastal states, 87% of counties, and 83% of municipalities. These fractions increase with elevation, but error medians and variability fall to lower levels, with national exposure underestimated by just 24% at 10m. Results using 3-arcsecond SRTM are extremely similar. Coastal analyses based on SRTM data thus appear to greatly underestimate sea level and flood threats, especially at lower elevations. However, SRTM-based estimates may usefully be regarded as providing lower bounds to actual threats. We additionally assess the performance of NOAA's Global Land One-km Base Elevation Project (GLOBE), another publicly-available global DEM, but do not reach any definitive conclusion because of the spatial heterogeneity in its quality.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

PubMed

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

2013-01-01

Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

The North American ozone air quality standard: efficacy and performance with two northern hardwood forest tree species

Treesearch

K. Percy; M. Nosal; W. Heilman; T. Dann; J. Sober; D. Karnosky

2005-01-01

In many forested regions of North America, background O3 levels have been rising despite the fact that hourly maximum concentrations have been decreasing. Unlike Europe, where critical levels based on a response threshold are used to assess risk, Canada and the United States use the best available scientific knowledge balanced by social, economic...

The Science-Policy Link: Stakeholder Reactions to the Uncertainties of Future Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Bye, B.

2011-12-01

Policy makers and stakeholders in the coastal zone are equally challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation. More than 40% of the global population is living in or near the coastal zone and this fraction is steadily increasing. A rise in LSL will increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and population dramatically, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Policy makers are faced with a trade-off between imposing today the often very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations. They are in need of actionable information that provides guidance for the development of coastal zones resilient to future sea level changes. Part of this actionable information comes from risk and vulnerability assessments, which require information on future LSL changes as input. In most cases, a deterministic approach has been applied based on predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input. However, there is little consensus in the scientific community on how these trajectories should be determined, and what the boundaries of the plausible range are. Over the last few years, many publications in Science, Nature and other peer-reviewed scientific journals have revealed a broad range of possible futures and significant epistemic uncertainties and gaps concerning LSL changes. Based on the somewhat diffuse science input, policy and decision makers have made rather different choices for mitigation and adaptation in cases such as Venice, The Netherlands, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay area. Replacing the deterministic, prediction-based approach with a statistical one that fully accounts for the uncertainties and epistemic gaps would provide a different kind of science input to policy makers and stakeholders. Like in many other insurance problems (for example, earthquakes), where deterministic predictions are not possible and decisions have to be made on the basis of statistics and probabilities, the statistical approach to coastal resilience would require stakeholders to make decisions on the basis of probabilities instead of predictions. The science input for informed decisions on adaptation would consist of general probabilities of decadal to century scale sea level changes derived from paleo records, including the probabilities for large and rapid rises. Similar to other problems where the appearance of a hazard is associated with a high risk (like a fire in a house), this approach would also require a monitoring and warning system (a "smoke detector") capable of detecting any onset of a rapid sea level rise.

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

Emergent Behavior of Coupled Barrier Island - Resort Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Werner, B. T.

2004-12-01

Barrier islands are attractive sites for resorts. Natural barrier islands experience beach erosion and island overwash during storms, beach accretion and dune building during inter-storm periods, and migration up the continental shelf as sea level rises. Beach replenishment, artificial dune building, seawalls, jetties and groins have been somewhat effective in protecting resorts against erosion and overwash during storms, but it is unknown how the coupled system will respond to long-term sea level rise. We investigate coupled barrier island - resort systems using an agent-based model with three components: natural barrier islands divided into a series of alongshore cells; resorts controlled by markets for tourism and hotel purchases; and coupling via storm damage to resorts and resort protection by government agents. Modeled barrier islands change by beach erosion, island overwash and inlet cutting during storms, and beach accretion, tidal delta growth and dune and vegetation growth between storms. In the resort hotel market, developer agents build hotels and hotel owning agents purchase them using predictions of future revenue and property appreciation, with the goal of maximizing discounted utility. In the tourism market, hotel owning agents set room rental prices to maximize profit and tourist agents choose vacation destinations maximizing a utility based on beach width, price and word-of-mouth. Government agents build seawalls, groins and jetties, and widen the beach and build up dunes by adding sand to protect resorts from storms, enhance beach quality, and maximize resort revenue. Results indicate that barrier islands and resorts evolve in a coupled manner to resort size saturation, with resorts protected against small-to-intermediate-scale storms under fairly stable sea level. Under extended, rapidly rising sea level, protection measures enhance the effect of large storms, leading to emergent behavior in the form of limit cycles or barrier submergence, depending on the relative rates of resort recovery from storms and sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean City, Maryland and neighboring undeveloped Assateague Island National Seashore. Supported by the National Science Foundation, Geology and Paleontology Program, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui

2017-04-01

Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.

The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood characteristics are impacted by changes in sea-level rise as far inland as 150 kilometers. Therefore, a larger population than the coastal inhabitants alone are exposed to risks of further projected increases of sea-level rise. A prime example for a megacity greatly put at risk by this is Dhaka City in Bangladesh, with a population of roughly 14 million people.

Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clinton, J.

2017-12-01

Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

Predicting water table response to rainfall events, central Florida.

PubMed

van Gaalen, J F; Kruse, S; Lafrenz, W B; Burroughs, S M

2013-01-01

A rise in water table in response to a rainfall event is a complex function of permeability, specific yield, antecedent soil-water conditions, water table level, evapotranspiration, vegetation, lateral groundwater flow, and rainfall volume and intensity. Predictions of water table response, however, commonly assume a linear relationship between response and rainfall based on cumulative analysis of water level and rainfall logs. By identifying individual rainfall events and responses, we examine how the response/rainfall ratio varies as a function of antecedent water table level (stage) and rainfall event size. For wells in wetlands and uplands in central Florida, incorporating stage and event size improves forecasting of water table rise by more than 30%, based on 10 years of data. At the 11 sites studied, the water table is generally least responsive to rainfall at smallest and largest rainfall event sizes and at lower stages. At most sites the minimum amount of rainfall required to induce a rise in water table is fairly uniform when the water table is within 50 to 100 cm of land surface. Below this depth, the minimum typically gradually increases with depth. These observations can be qualitatively explained by unsaturated zone flow processes. Overall, response/rainfall ratios are higher in wetlands and lower in uplands, presumably reflecting lower specific yields and greater lateral influx in wetland sites. Pronounced depth variations in rainfall/response ratios appear to correlate with soil layer boundaries, where corroborating data are available. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

Insights about the interaction between sea-level rise, sediment accumulation and subsidence: the example of the Ganges Brahmaputra Delta during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grall, C.; Steckler, M. S.; Pickering, J.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.; Sincavage, R.; Hossain, S.; Paola, C.; Spiess, V.

2016-12-01

The hazard associated with sea-level rise (shoreline erosion, flooding and wetlands loss) may dramatically increase when human interventions interfere with the natural responses of the coastal regions to the eustatic rise. We here provide insights about such natural processes, by documenting the manner in which subsidence, sediment input and sediment distribution interact together during the well-known Holocene eustatic rise period, in the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (GBMD) in Bangladesh. The dataset combines more than 400 hand-drilled stratigraphic wells, 185 radiocarbon ages, and seismic reflection imaging data (255 km of high resolution multichannel seismic dataset), collected thanks to recent research in the BanglaPIRE project. We use two independent approaches for analyzing this broad dataset. First, we estimate the total volume of Holocene sediments in the GBMD. In doing so, we define empirical laws to build up a virtual model of sediment accumulation that takes into account the contrasts in accumulation between rivers and alluvial plains as well as the regional seaward gradient of sediment accumulation. As the evolution of river occupation over the Holocene at the regional scale is now relatively well constrained, we estimate the total volume of sediment deposited in the Delta during the Holocene. Secondly, we use detailed age-models of sediment accumulation at 92 sites (based on 185 radiocarbon ages) for distinguishing the effects of eustasy and subsidence on the sediment accumulation in the different domains of the delta (namely the tidal dominated plain and the fluvial dominated plain). Using these two independent approaches, we are able to quantify the natural subsidence and the relative distribution of subsidence. We emphasize the difference between the subsidence and the sediment accumulation, by showing that sediment accumulation is more than twice the subsidence on average during the Holocene, which allows us to quantify the increase of sediment deposition associated with the eustatic rise in sea-level. We suggests that consequences of sediment starvation in low lying lands associated with human impacts may be masked, and thus underappreciated, during periods of eustatic rise in sea-level.

Evidence of a Weakening Gulf Stream from In-situ Expendable Bathythermograph Data, 1996-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roupe, L.; Baringer, M. O.

2014-12-01

A weakening of the Gulf Stream, the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system, has been hypothesized to accelerate sea level rise on the east coast of the United States, caused by changes in the Gulf Stream strength and, hence, sea level difference across the current. It still remains unclear if the Gulf Stream has in fact weakened or remains stable, along with the potential role of natural long-term variability. Tide gauges along the east coast show an accelerated sea level rise from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod that is 3-4 times higher than global sea level rise. Satellite altimetry shows a weakening gradient in Gulf Stream sea surface height that is highly correlated (r=-0.85) with east coast sea level rise, however, direct velocity measurements showed no significant decrease in Gulf Stream strength over a similar time period. We introduce another in-situ dataset to examine the issues between these conflicting results. Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) measure temperature at depth directly, and then depth and salinity can be inferred, along with geostrophic velocity and transport. XBT data has been used to measure transport in various current systems, however, the Gulf Stream transport has not been analyzed using the newest high-density XBT data made available since 1996. The trend in sea level difference is determined to be 3.3 +/- 3.2 mm/yr, resulting in an overall decrease of 5.2 cm in sea level from 1996-2013. This result agrees with satellite altimetry results that show a significant decrease in recent years. This data also shows a changing Gulf Stream core position, based on the 15°C isotherm at 200 m, of 0.03°N/yr that is negatively correlated with surface transport (r=-0.25). Issues remain in defining the core and width of the Gulf Stream and with eliminating the possibility of natural variability in the current system.

AN ESTIMATE OF THE DETECTABILITY OF RISING FLUX TUBES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birch, A. C.; Braun, D. C.; Fan, Y., E-mail: aaronb@cora.nwra.co

The physics of the formation of magnetic active regions (ARs) is one of the most important problems in solar physics. One main class of theories suggests that ARs are the result of magnetic flux that rises from the tachocline. Time-distance helioseismology, which is based on measurements of wave propagation, promises to allow the study of the subsurface behavior of this magnetic flux. Here, we use a model for a buoyant magnetic flux concentration together with the ray approximation to show that the dominant effect on the wave propagation is expected to be from the roughly 100 m s{sup -1} retrogrademore » flow associated with the rising flux. Using a B-spline-based method for carrying out inversions of wave travel times for flows in spherical geometry, we show that at 3 days before emergence the detection of this retrograde flow at a depth of 30 Mm should be possible with a signal-to-noise level of about 8 with a sample of 150 emerging ARs.« less

Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Simon; Leon, Javier X.; Grinham, Alistair R.; Church, John A.; Gibbes, Badin R.; Woodroffe, Colin D.

2016-05-01

Low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands provide a valuable window into the future impacts of global sea-level rise. Sea-level rise has been predicted to cause widespread erosion and inundation of low-lying atolls in the central Pacific. However, the limited research on reef islands in the western Pacific indicates the majority of shoreline changes and inundation to date result from extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate development rather than sea-level rise alone. Here, we present the first analysis of coastal dynamics from a sea-level rise hotspot in the Solomon Islands. Using time series aerial and satellite imagery from 1947 to 2014 of 33 islands, along with historical insight from local knowledge, we have identified five vegetated reef islands that have vanished over this time period and a further six islands experiencing severe shoreline recession. Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations. Rates of shoreline recession are substantially higher in areas exposed to high wave energy, indicating a synergistic interaction between sea-level rise and waves. Understanding these local factors that increase the susceptibility of islands to coastal erosion is critical to guide adaptation responses for these remote Pacific communities.

Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Michael E.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2011-01-01

Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2016-01-01

In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes.

PubMed

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-23

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-01

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian interglacial: Review of previous work with focus on the surface mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plach, Andreas; Hestnes Nisancioglu, Kerim

2016-04-01

The contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to the global sea level rise during the Eemian interglacial (about 125,000 year ago) was the focus of many studies in the past. A main reason for the interest in this period is the considerable warmer climate during the Eemian which is often seen as an equivalent for possible future climate conditions. Simulated sea level rise during the Eemian can therefore be used to better understand a possible future sea level rise. The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) gives an overview of several studies and discusses the possible implications for a future sea level rise. The report also reveals the big differences between these studies in terms of simulated GIS extent and corresponding sea level rise. The present study gives a more exhaustive review of previous work discussing sea level rise from the GIS during the Eemian interglacial. The smallest extents of the GIS simulated by various authors are shown and summarized. A focus is thereby given to the methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. A hypothesis of the present work is that the varying results of the previous studies can largely be explained due to the various methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. In addition, as a first step for future work, the surface mass balance of the GIS for a proxy-data derived forcing ("index method") and a direct forcing with a General Circulation Model (GCM) are shown and discussed.

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Evidence for a substantial West Antarctic ice sheet contribution to meltwater pulses and abrupt global sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Woodward, J.; Winter, K.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Curran, M. A.; Rootes, C.; Rivera, A.; Millman, H.

2015-12-01

During the last deglaciation (21,000 to 7,000years ago) global sea level rise was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater spikes triggered by the retreat of ice sheets and glaciers world-wide. However, the debate regarding the relative timing, geographical source and the physical mechanisms driving these rapid increases in sea level has catalyzed debate critical to predicting future sea level rise and climate. Here we present a unique record of West Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation change derived from the Patriot Hills blue ice area, located close to the modern day grounding line of the Institute Ice Stream in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Combined isotopic signatures and gas volume analysis from the ice allows us to develop a record of local ice sheet palaeo-altitude that is assessed against independent regional high-resolution ice sheet modeling studies, allowing us to demonstrate that past ice sheet elevations across this sector of the WSE were considerably higher than those suggested by current terrestrial reconstructions. We argue that ice in the WSE had a significant influence on both pre and post LGM sea level rise including MWP-1A (~14.6 ka) and during MWP-1B (11.7-11.6 ka), reconciling past sea level rise and demonstrating for the first time that this sector of the WAIS made a significant and direct contribution to post LGM sea level rise.

Decision-making Processes among Prostate Cancer Survivors with Rising PSA Levels: Results from a Qualitative Analysis.

PubMed

Shen, Megan Johnson; Nelson, Christian J; Peters, Ellen; Slovin, Susan F; Hall, Simon J; Hall, Matt; Herrera, Phapichaya Chaoprang; Leventhal, Elaine A; Leventhal, Howard; Diefenbach, Michael A

2015-05-01

Prostate cancer survivors with a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level have few treatment options, experience a heightened state of uncertainty about their disease trajectory that might include the possibility of cancer metastasis and death, and often experience elevated levels of distress as they have to deal with a disease they thought they had conquered. Guided by self-regulation theory, the present study examined the cognitive and affective processes involved in shared decision making between physicians and patients who experience a rising PSA after definitive treatment for prostate cancer. In-depth interviews were conducted with 34 prostate cancer survivors who had been diagnosed with a rising PSA (i.e., biochemical failure) within the past 12 months. Survivors were asked about their experiences and affective responses after being diagnosed with a rising PSA and while weighing potential treatment options. In addition, patients were asked about their decision-making process for the initial prostate cancer treatment. Compared with the initial diagnosis, survivors with a rising PSA reported increased negative affect following their diagnosis, concern about the treatability of their disease, increased planning and health behavior change, heightened levels of worry preceding doctor appointments (especially prior to the discussion of PSA testing results), and a strong reliance on physicians' treatment recommendations. Prostate cancer survivors' decision-making processes for the treatment of a rising PSA are markedly different from those of the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. Because patients experience heightened distress and rely more heavily on their physicians' recommendations with a rising PSA, interactions with the health care provider provide an excellent opportunity to address and assist patients with managing the uncertainty and distress inherent with rising PSA levels. © The Author(s) 2014.

Experimental investigation of channel avulsion frequency on river deltas under rising sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvestre, J.; Chadwick, A. J.; Steele, S.; Lamb, M. P.

2017-12-01

River deltas are low-relief landscapes that are socioeconomically important; they are home to over half a billion people worldwide. Many deltas are built by cycles of lobe growth punctuated by abrupt channel shifts, or avulsions, which often reoccur at a similar location and with a regular frequency. Previous experimental work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in controlling channel avulsion location and timing on deltas under constant sea level conditions, but it is unclear how sea-level rise impacts avulsion dynamics. We present results from a flume experiment designed to isolate the role of relative sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-influenced delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin. The experimental delta grew under subcritical flow, a persistent backwater zone, and a range of sea level rise rates. Without sea level rise, lobe progradation produced in-channel aggradation and periodic avulsions every 3.6 ± 0.9 hours, which corresponded to when channels aggraded to approximately one-half of their flow depth. With a modest rate of sea-level rise (0.25 mm/hr), we observed enhanced aggradation in the backwater zone, causing channels to aggrade more quickly and avulse more frequently (every 2.1 ± 0.6 hours). In future work, we expect further increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise to cause avulsion frequency to decrease as the delta drowns and the backwater zone retreats upstream. Experimental results can serve as tests of numerical models that are needed for hazard mitigation and coastal sustainability efforts on drowning deltas.

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Potentiometric Surfaces and Water-Level Trends in the Cockfield (Upper Claiborne) and Wilcox (Lower Wilcox) Aquifers of Southern and Northeastern Arkansas, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.

2010-01-01

Eocene-age sand beds near the base of the Cockfield Formation of Claiborne Group constitute the aquifer known locally as the Cockfield aquifer. Upper-Paleocene age sand beds within the lower parts of the Wilcox Group constitute the aquifer known locally as the Wilcox aquifer. In 2005, reported water withdrawals from the Cockfield aquifer in Arkansas totaled 16.1 million gallons per day, while reported water withdrawals from the Wilcox aquifer in Arkansas totaled 27.0 million gallons per day. Major withdrawals from these units were for industrial and public water supplies with lesser but locally important withdrawals for commercial, domestic, and agricultural uses. During February 2009, 56 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer and 57 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Wilcox aquifer. The results from the 2009 water-level measurements are presented in potentiometric-surface maps and in combination with previous water-level measurements. Trends in water-level change over time within the two aquifers are investigated using water-level difference maps and well hydrographs. Water-level difference maps were constructed for each aquifer using the difference between depth to water measurements made in 2003 to 2009. Well hydrographs for each aquifer were constructed for wells with 20 or more years of historical water-level data. The hydrographs were evaluated individually using linear regression to calculate the annual rise or decline in water levels, and by aggregating the regression results by county and statistically summarizing for the range, mean, and median water-level change in each county. The 2009 potentiometric surface of the Cockfield aquifer map indicates the regional direction of groundwater flow generally towards the east and southeast, except in two areas of intense groundwater withdrawals that have developed into cones of depression. The lowest water-level altitude measured was 43 feet and the highest water-level altitude measured was 351 feet. A water-level difference map was constructed from 54 wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer within Arkansas. The largest rise in water level was 14.9 feet and the largest decline was 27.4 feet. Seven wells had a rise in water level, and the remaining 47 wells had a decline in water level. Hydrographs for 33 wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer were developed. Hydrographs indicate water-level changes in individual wells ranged from rises of 0.33 feet per year to declines of 1.21 feet per year over the 20-year period (1990-2009). County summaries of the linear regression analysis indicate Cleveland and Columbia Counties have mean annual rises. Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Lincoln, and Union Counties have mean annual declines. The potentiometric surface for the Wilcox aquifer is presented using two maps, one for a southern area and another for a northeastern area, because of the absence of water-level data in the central part of the State. The direction of groundwater flow in the southern area is generally the east, except around two cones of depression and around two mounds of elevated water levels. Water-level altitudes in the southern area range from 147 feet to 400 feet. The direction of groundwater flow in the northeastern area is generally to the south and southeast except in an area of intense groundwater withdrawals that has altered the flow to a westerly direction. Two water-level difference maps were constructed using water-level altitudes measured in 2003 to 2009 from 53 wells completed in the Wilcox aquifer within southern and northeastern Arkansas. In the southern area the largest rise in water level was 16.0 feet and the largest decline was 17.7 feet. Eight wells in the southern area had rising water levels and the remaining five wells had declining water levels. In the northeastern area, the largest rise in water level was 1.3 feet and the larg

Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: A geospatial approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamylton, S. M.; Leon, J. X.; Saunders, M. I.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2014-10-01

Sea-level rise will result in changes in water depth over coral reefs, which will influence reef platform growth as a result of carbonate production and accretion. This study simulates the pattern of reef response on the reefs around Lizard Island in the northern Great Barrier Reef. Two sea-level rise scenarios are considered to capture the range of likely projections: 0.5 m and 1.2 m above 1990 levels by 2100. Reef topography has been established through extensive bathymetric profiling, together with available data, including LiDAR, single beam bathymetry, multibeam swath bathymetry, LADS and digitised chart data. The reef benthic cover around Lizard Island has been classified using a high resolution WorldView-2 satellite image, which is calibrated and validated against a ground referencing dataset of 364 underwater video records of the reef benthic character. Accretion rates are parameterised using published hydrochemical measurements taken in-situ and rules are applied using Boolean logic to incorporate geomorphological transitions associated with different depth ranges, such as recolonisation of the reef flat when it becomes inundated as sea level rises. Simulations indicate a variable platform response to the different sea-level rise scenarios. For the 0.5 m rise, the shallower reef flats are gradually colonised by corals, enabling this active geomorphological zone to keep up with the lower rate of rise while the other sand dominated areas get progressively deeper. In the 1.2 m scenario, a similar pattern is evident for the first 30 years of rise, beyond which the whole reef platform begins to slowly drown. To provide insight on reef response to sea-level rise in other areas, simulation results of four different reef settings are discussed and compared at the southeast reef flat (barrier reef), Coconut Beach (fringing reef), Watson's Bay (leeward bay with coral patches) and Mangrove Beach (sheltered lagoonal embayment). The reef sites appear to accrete upwards at a rate commensurate with the rate of rise, thereby maintaining their original profile and position relative to the sea surface and the leeward and lagoonal sites with a low accretion rate maintain a similar profile but slowly gain depth relative to sea-level. The result of this variable response is that elevated features of the reef platform, such as reef patches and crests tend to become more pronounced.

Marsh accretion in Oregon estuaries using the marker horizon method and implications of sea level rise

EPA Science Inventory

Sea level rise and the ability of marshes to keep up with this rise have been extensively studied on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the US; however, there is limited information available for marshes in the Pacific Northwest. Our research focuses on measuring marsh sediment acc...

Prenatal influences on brain dopamine and their relevance to the rising incidence of autism.

PubMed

Previc, Fred H

2007-01-01

The incidence of autism has risen 10-fold since the early 1980s, with most of this rise not explainable by changing diagnostic criteria. The rise in autism is paradoxical in that autism is considered to be one of the most genetically determined of the major neurodevelopmental disorders and should accordingly either be stable or even declining. Because a variety of epigenetic influences, particularly those occurring during the prenatal period, can override or masquerade as genetic influences, these should be considered as prime contributors to the recent increase of autism. Prenatal influences on dopamine activity are especially well-documented, including the effects of maternal psychosocial stress, maternal fever, maternal genetic and hormonal status, use of certain medications, urban birth, and fetal hypoxia. All of these factors have been implicated in the genesis of autism, which is characterized by a "hyperdopaminergic" state based on evidence from monkey and human behavioral studies, pharmacological studies in humans, and a left-hemispheric predominance of both dopamine and autistic-like symptoms. Chronically high maternal levels of dopamine caused by the pressures of increasingly urbanized societies and by changing maternal demographics such as increased workforce participation, educational achievement level, and age at first birth, may be especially significant epigenetic contributors to the recent autism rise.

Opening Pathways for Underrepresented High School Students to Biomedical Research Careers: The Emory University RISE Program

PubMed Central

Rohrbaugh, Margaret C.; Corces, Victor G.

2011-01-01

Increasing the college graduation rates of underrepresented minority students in science disciplines is essential to attain a diverse workforce for the 21st century. The Research Internship and Science Education (RISE) program attempts to motivate and prepare students from the Atlanta Public School system, where underrepresented minority (URM) students comprise a majority of the population, for biomedical science careers by offering the opportunity to participate in an original research project. Students work in a research laboratory from the summer of their sophomore year until graduation, mentored by undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral fellows (postdocs). In addition, they receive instruction in college-level biology, scholastic assessment test (SAT) preparation classes, and help with the college application process. During the last 4 yr, RISE students have succeeded in the identification and characterization of a series of proteins involved in the regulation of nuclear organization and transcription. All but 1 of 39 RISE students have continued on to 4-year college undergraduate studies and 61% of those students are currently enrolled in science-related majors. These results suggest that the use of research-based experiences at the high school level may contribute to the increased recruitment of underrepresented students into science-related careers. PMID:21926301

Opening pathways for underrepresented high school students to biomedical research careers: the Emory University RISE program.

PubMed

Rohrbaugh, Margaret C; Corces, Victor G

2011-12-01

Increasing the college graduation rates of underrepresented minority students in science disciplines is essential to attain a diverse workforce for the 21st century. The Research Internship and Science Education (RISE) program attempts to motivate and prepare students from the Atlanta Public School system, where underrepresented minority (URM) students comprise a majority of the population, for biomedical science careers by offering the opportunity to participate in an original research project. Students work in a research laboratory from the summer of their sophomore year until graduation, mentored by undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral fellows (postdocs). In addition, they receive instruction in college-level biology, scholastic assessment test (SAT) preparation classes, and help with the college application process. During the last 4 yr, RISE students have succeeded in the identification and characterization of a series of proteins involved in the regulation of nuclear organization and transcription. All but 1 of 39 RISE students have continued on to 4-year college undergraduate studies and 61% of those students are currently enrolled in science-related majors. These results suggest that the use of research-based experiences at the high school level may contribute to the increased recruitment of underrepresented students into science-related careers.

Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

Sea Level Rise Impacts On Infrastructure Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Mccown, A. W.; Backhaus, S.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Increase of global sea level is one of the potential consequences of climate change and represents a threat for the U.S.A coastal regions, which are highly populated and home of critical infrastructures. The potential danger caused by sea level rise may escalate if sea level rise is coupled with an increase in frequency and intensity of storms that may strike these regions. These coupled threats present a clear risk to population and critical infrastructure and are concerns for Federal, State, and particularly local response and recovery planners. Understanding the effect of sea level rise on the risk to critical infrastructure is crucial for long planning and for mitigating potential damages. In this work we quantify how infrastructure vulnerability to a range of storms changes due to an increase of sea level. Our study focuses on the Norfolk area of the U.S.A. We assess the direct damage of drinking water and wastewater facilities and the power sector caused by a distribution of synthetic hurricanes. In addition, our analysis estimates indirect consequences of these damages on population and economic activities accounting also for interdependencies across infrastructures. While projections unanimously indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise, the scientific community does not agree on the size of this rate. Our risk assessment accounts for this uncertainty simulating a distribution of sea level rise for a specific climate scenario. Using our impact assessment results and assuming an increase of future hurricanes frequencies and intensities, we also estimate the expected benefits for critical infrastructure.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2013-12-01

Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we coupled regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. With agency, NGO, and business partners, we have integrated these findings into coastal policy initiatives, including the first ever adoption of sea level Adaptation Action Areas in a Florida city land use plan.

Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

2018-04-01

Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

Comment [on “Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Morton, Robert; Fletcher, Charles; Thieler, E. Robert; Howd, Peter

2000-01-01

In a recent article (Eos, Trans., AGU, February 8, 2000, p.55), Leatherman et al. [2000] state that they have confirmed an association between sea-level rise and coastal erosion. Applying their results to the New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland coasts and using a projected sea-level rise, the authors predict that by 2050 the shoreline will recede 60 m, about two times the average beach width. However, Leatherman et al. [2000] have not convincingly quantified a relationship between sea-level rise and shoreline erosion.We do not agree with their rationale for subsetting their data, and they have not considered other explanations for a background erosion along the U.S. east coast. Furthermore, their future projections are not supported by their analyses.

Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milesi, Cristina

2005-01-01

Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

Regional Sea Level Changes Projected by the NASA/GISS Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Gornitz, Vivien; Miller, James R.

1999-01-01

Sea level has been rising for the past century, and inhabitants of the Earth's coastal regions will want to understand and predict future sea level changes. In this study we present results from new simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model from 1950 to 2099. Model results are compared with observed sea level changes during the past 40 years at 17 coastal stations around the world. Using observed levels of greenhouse gases between 1950 and 1990 and a compounded 0.5% annual increase in Co2 after 1990, model projections show that global sea level measured from 1950 will rise by 61 mm in the year 2000, by 212 mm in 2050, and by 408 mm in 2089. By 2089, two thirds of the global sea level rise will be due to thermal expansion and one third will be due to ocean mass changes. The spatial distribution of sea level rise is different than that projected by rigid lid ocean models.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction

PubMed Central

Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Leorri, Eduardo

2016-01-01

The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches. PMID:27929122

Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction.

PubMed

Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A; Leorri, Eduardo

2016-12-08

The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

Leachate water quality from soils amended with swine manure based biochars

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the face of the rising level of manure production from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), management options are being sought that can provide nutrient recycling for plant growth and improved soil conditions with minimal environmental impacts. Alternatives to direct manure applicatio...

Leachate water quality of soils amended with different swine manure-based amendments

EPA Science Inventory

In the face of the rising level of manure production from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), management options are being sought that can provide nutrient recycling for plant growth and improved soil conditions with minimal environmental impacts. Alternatives to dire...

Water-level altitudes 2010 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2009 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Johnson, Michaela R.; Ramage, Jason K.

2010-01-01

Most of the subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers causing compaction of the clay layers of the aquifer sediments. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, and Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The report contains maps showing 2010 water-level altitudes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, respectively; maps showing 1-year (2009-10) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing 5-year (2005-10) water-level-altitude changes for each aquifer; maps showing long-term (1990-2010 and 1977-2010) water-level-altitude changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers; a map showing long-term (2000-10) water-level-altitude change for the Jasper aquifer; a map showing locations of borehole extensometer sites; and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at the extensometers from 1973, or later, through 2009. Tables listing the data used to construct each aquifer-data map and the compaction graphs are included. Water levels in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers were measured during December 2009-March 2010. In 2010, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 or North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter, datum) in a small area in southwestern Harris County to 200 feet above datum in central to southwestern Montgomery County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Chicot aquifer ranged from a 49-foot decline to a 67-foot rise (2009-10), from a 25-foot decline to a 35-foot rise (2005-10), from a 40-foot decline to an 80-foot rise (1990-2010), and from a 140-foot decline to a 200-foot rise (1977-2010). In 2010, water-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 300 feet below datum in north-central Harris County to 200 feet above datum at the boundary of Waller, Montgomery, and Grimes Counties. Water-level-altitude changes in the Evangeline aquifer ranged from a 58-foot decline to a 69-foot rise (2009-10), from an 80-foot decline to an 80-foot rise (2005-10), from a 200-foot decline to a 220-foot rise (1990-2010), and from a 320-foot decline to a 220-foot rise (1977-2010). In 2010, water-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer ranged from 200 feet below datum in south-central Montgomery County to 250 feet above datum in eastern-central Grimes County. Water-level-altitude changes in the Jasper aquifer ranged from a 39-foot decline to a 39-foot rise (2009-10), from a 110-foot decline to no change (2005-10), and from a 180-foot decline to no change (2000-10). Compaction of subsurface materials (mostly in the clay layers) composing the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers was recorded continuously at 13 borehole extensometers at 11 sites. For the period of record beginning in 1973, or later, and ending in December 2009, cumulative clay compaction data measured by 12 extensometers ranged from 0.088 foot at the Texas City-Moses Lake site to 3.559 foot at the Addicks site. The rate of compaction varies from site to site because of differences in groundwater withdrawals near each site and differences among sites in the clay-to-sand ratio in the subsurface materials. Therefore, it is not possible to extrapolate or infer a rate of clay compaction for an area based on the rate of compaction measured at a nearby extensometer.

Examining spatial variability in relative sea-level in the New York City/New Jersey region during the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Jennifer; Clear, Jennifer; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Khan, Nicole; Shaw, Timothy; Corbett, Reide; Kemp, Andrew; Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions extend the 20th century instrumental record (tide gauge and satellite measurements) of spatial and temporal sea-level variability to provide a much longer context for recent trends and projected RSL rise. Common Era (last 2000 years) RSL reconstructions illustrate patterns of natural variability and include natural phases of climate and sea-level which will improve our knowledge basis for sea-level responses to climate changes. The northeast U.S. has exhibited varying rates in relative sea-level rise through the Common Era, primarily due to glacial isostatic adjustment. However, other factors such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics, sediment compaction, and the static equilibrium response to land ice changes, further influence the evolution of relative sea-level. The spatial variability is manifest in the tide gauge records. The tide gauge at the Battery, New York City (1856 to 2015) records a relative sea-level rise of 2.8 mm/yr whereas the tide gauge at Sandy Hook, New Jersey (1932 to 2015), 25 km southeast, records 4.1 mm/yr. Here we present a new reconstruction of RSL in northern New Jersey using geological and tide gauge data. A Common Era sea-level record from northern New Jersey fills in the spatial gap between records completed in southern New Jersey, New York City, and Connecticut. Our field study site is in Cheesequake State Park, where we observed sedimentary sequences dating back 2000 cal. yrs. BP. We use microfossil indicators preserved in salt-marsh sediments as a proxy to reconstruct RSL with decimeter precision. Salt-marsh foraminifera act as reliable RSL indicators because their modern distribution is strongly linked to tidal elevation. The recent application of microfossil-based transfer functions has enabled continuous records of RSL, extending centuries before the modern instrumental period, to be produced with a full consideration of uncertainty. We use a composite chronology of AMS 14C, pollen chrono-horizons, pollution histories, and a 137Cs spike (AD 1963) to achieve multi-decadal temporal precision. The RSL record for northern New Jersey shows a 2.4 m rise during the past 2000 years at a mean rate of 1.2 mm/yr. This compares to rates from a database of Holocene relative sea-level observations for the U.S. Atlantic coast which found a rise of 1.4 mm/yr for New Jersey and 1.3 mm/yr for New York from 4 ka BP to AD 1900 (Engelhart and Horton, 2012).

Size stratification in a Gilbert delta due to a varying base level: flume experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavarrias, Victor; Orru, Clara; Viparelli, Enrica; Vide, Juan Pedro Martin; Blom, Astrid

2014-05-01

A foreset-dominated Gilbert delta is a delta that is dominated by sediment avalanches (i.e., discontinuous grain flows) over its front. It forms when a river flows into a basin or sea characterized by a flow depth that is much larger than the one in the fluvial reach, and the conditions are such that the transported sediment passing the brinkpoint forms a wedge at the topmost part of the foreset, which results in avalanches down the foreset and a fining upward pattern within the foreset deposit. A Gilbert delta is typically described in terms of a low-slope topset (resulting from deposition over the fluvial reach), a steep-slope foreset (resulting from sediment avalanches over the lee face), and a bottomset (resulting from deposition of fine sediment passing the brinkpoint as suspended load). The objective of the present study is to gain insight into the mechanisms taking part in Gilbert delta formation and progradation under variable base level conditions. In order to do so, three flume experiments were conducted in which the water discharge and sediment feed rate were maintained constant but the base level varied between the experiments: (I) constant base level, (II) a gradually rising base level, and (III) a slowly varying base level. The stratigraphy within the delta deposit was measured using image analysis combined with particle coloring. A steady base level resulted in aggradation over the fluvial reach in order to maintain a slope required to transport the supplied sediment downstream. Sea level rise enhanced the amount of aggradation over the fluvial reach due to the presence of an M1 backwater curve. The aggrading flux to the substrate was slightly coarser than the fed sediment. The sediment at the base of the foreset deposit appeared to become coarser in streamwise direction. Eventually, a fall of the base level induced an M2 backwater curve over the fluvial reach that caused degradation of the fluvial reach. Base level fall first induced erosion of the mobile armor that covered the fluvial reach. This led to an initial coarsening of the brinkpoint load (and foreset deposit). Once the mobile armour was eroded, base level fall led to degradation of the finer substrate, which resulted in a fining of the brinkpoint load and foreset deposit. The relation between the sediment size stratification and the base level change may be used for the reconstruction of the paleo sea level from the stratigraphy of ancient Gilbert deltas.

Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan

2012-06-01

Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon, experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors. Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere. The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston, South Carolina; coastal cities across Florida, especially its southeast and the Tampa area; New Orleans; the San Francisco Bay Area and San Joaquin Delta; and greater Los Angeles. Overall, 3.7 million people across the US are estimated to live within 1 m of the present high-tide line. The second paper, by Tebaldi et al, specifically looks at storm surges and how their frequency is expected to change along the US coastline in the coming four decades due to rising sea levels. They first estimate future local sea-level rise relative to the land by combining the observed local trend of the past fifty years with a future acceleration due to global warming as estimated by a semi-empirical model (Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009). Then they use past storm surge statistics for many different locations and shift the return level curves according to the projected sea-level rise. The authors find that by mid-century, in some locations what is now a once-per-century flooding event could become an annual event. Those are exceptional places—but at about a third of the sites investigated, a century flood could become a once-per-decade flood. Of course, many of these events need not have dramatic impacts: in fact, locations where rare floods are quite small in amplitude (and hence presumably modest in their impacts) are precisely those where the return period decreases most dramatically. In a place where the once-per-century flood is only 50 cm higher than the annual flood, a typical 30 cm rise in sea level makes a bigger difference than one in a place where the century flood is 2 m higher than the annual flood. Nevertheless, the expected large changes in return periods and return levels of storm surges clearly demonstrate that accounting for accelerating sea-level rise is vital in the planning and design of coastal infrastructure. But most importantly, these studies highlight the fact that the modern world, with many millions of people living right by the coast, is highly vulnerable to even modest sea-level rise. Losing just 1% of the present continental ice would raise sea level globally by about 75 cm—a tiny amount in the perspective of palaeoclimate history, e.g. the 120 m rise at the end of the last ice age, but a large amount in terms of impacts on human society. We should do everything we can to limit global warming and thereby sea-level rise to a manageable level. References Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011 Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (Oslo: AMAP) Church J A and White N J 2006 A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L01602 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Levermann A, Griesel A, Hofmann M, Montoya M and Rahmstorf S 2005 Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation Clim. Dyn. 24 347-54 Mitrovica J X, Tamisiea M E, Davis J L and Milne G A 2001 Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change Nature 409 1026-9 Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church J A, Hansen J E, Keeling R F, Parker D E and Somerville C J 2007 Recent climate observations compared to projections Science 316 709 Rahmstorf S, Perrette M and Vermeer M 2011 Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections Clim. Dyn. at press (doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7) Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009 Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (Cambridge: Scott Polar Research Institute) Strauss B, Ziemlinski R, Weiss J and Overpeck J T 2012 Tidally-adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014033 Tebaldi C, Strauss B and Zervas C 2012 Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014032 US Army Corps of Engineers 2011 Sea-Level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs (Washington, DC: Department of the Army) Van den Broeke M R, Bamber J, Lenaerts J and Rignot E 2011 Ice sheets and sea level: thinking outside the box Sur. Geophys. 32 495-505 Vellinga P, Katsman C A, Sterl A and Beersma J J 2009 Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands International Scientific Assessment Carried out at the Request of the Delta Committee (De Bilt: KNMI) Vermeer M and Rahmstorf S 2009 Global sea level linked to global temperature Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106 21527-32

Use of a Florida Gulf Coast Barrier Island by Spring Trans-Gulf Migrants and the Projected Effects of Sea Level Rise on Habitat Availability.

PubMed

Lester, Lori A; Gutierrez Ramirez, Mariamar; Kneidel, Alan H; Heckscher, Christopher M

2016-01-01

Barrier islands on the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico are an internationally important coastal resource. Each spring hundreds of thousands of Nearctic-Neotropical songbirds crossing the Gulf of Mexico during spring migration use these islands because they provide the first landfall for individuals following a trans-Gulf migratory route. The effects of climate change, particularly sea level rise, may negatively impact habitat availability for migrants on barrier islands. Our objectives were (1) to confirm the use of St. George Island, Florida by trans-Gulf migrants and (2) to determine whether forested stopover habitat will be available for migrants on St. George Island following sea level rise. We used avian transect data, geographic information systems, remote sensing, and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three different sea level rise scenarios (0.28 m, 0.82 m, and 2 m) on habitat availability for trans-Gulf migrants. We found considerable use of the island by spring trans-Gulf migrants. Migrants were most abundant in areas with low elevation, high canopy height, and high coverage of forests and scrub/shrub. A substantial percentage of forest (44%) will be lost by 2100 assuming moderate sea level rise (0.82 m). Thus, as sea level rise progresses, less forests will be available for migrants during stopover. Many migratory bird species' populations are declining, and degradation of barrier island stopover habitat may further increase the cost of migration for many individuals. To preserve this coastal resource, conservation and wise management of migratory stopover areas, especially near ecological barriers like the Gulf of Mexico, will be essential as sea levels rise.

Predicting tidal marsh survival or submergence to sea-level rise using Holocene data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Shennan, I.; Bradley, S.; Cahill, N.; Kirwan, M. L.; Kopp, R. E.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Rising sea level threatens to permanently submerge tidal marsh environments if they cannot accrete faster than the rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). But regional and global model simulations of the future ability of marshes to maintain their elevation with respect to the tidal frame are uncertain. The compilation of empirical data for tidal marsh vulnerability is, therefore, essential to address disparities across these simulations. A hitherto unexplored source of empirical data are Holocene records of tidal marsh evolution. In particular, the marshes of Great Britain have survived and submerged while RSLR varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr, primarily because of the interplay between global ice-volume changes and regional isostatic processes. Here, we reveal the limits to marsh vulnerability are revealed through the analysis of over 400 reconstructions of tidal marsh submergence and conversion to tidal mud flat or open water from 54 regions in Great Britain during the Holocene. Holocene records indicate a 90% probability of tidal marsh submergence at sites with RSLR exceeding 7.3 mm/yr (95% CI: 6.6-8.6 mm/yr). Although most modern tidal marshes in Great Britain have not yet reached these sea-level rise limits, our empirical data suggest widespread concern over their ability to survive rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century under high emission scenarios. Integrating over the uncertainties in both sea-level rise predictions and the response of tidal marshes to sea-level rise, all of Great Britain has a >80% probability of marsh submergence under RCP 8.5 by 2100, with areas of south and eastern England, where the rate of RSLR is increased by glacio-isostatic subsidence, achieving this probability by 2040.

Preparing for Sea-level Rise: Conflicts and Opportunities in Coastal Wetlands Coexisting with Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. F.; Saco, P. M.; Sandi, S. G.; Saintilan, N.; Riccardi, G.

2017-12-01

Even though on a large scale the sustainability and resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise depends on the slope of the landscape and a balance between the rates of soil accretion and the sea-level rise, local man-made flow disturbances can have comparable effects. Coastal infrastructure controlling flow in the wetlands can pose an additional constraint on the adaptive capacity of these ecosystems, but can also present opportunities for targeted flow management to increase their resilience. Coastal wetlands in SE Australia are heavily managed and typically present infrastructure including flow control devices. How these flow control structures are operated respond to different ecological conservation objectives (i.e. bird, frog or fish habitat) that can sometimes be mutually exclusive. For example, promoting mangrove establishment to enhance fish habitat results in saltmarsh decline thus affecting bird habitat. Moreover, sea-level rise will change hydraulic conditions in wetlands and may result in some flow control structures and strategies becoming obsolete or even counterproductive. In order to address these problems and in support of future management of flows in coastal wetlands, we have developed a predictive tool for long-term wetland evolution that incorporates the effects of infrastructure and other perturbations to the tidal flow within the wetland (i.e. vegetation resistance) and determines how these flow conditions affect vegetation establishment and survival. We use the model to support management and analyse different scenarios of sea-level rise and flow control measures aimed at preserving bird habitat. Our results show that sea-level rise affects the efficiency of management measures and in some cases may completely override their effect. It also shows the potential of targeted flow management to compensate for the effects of sea-level rise.

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Use of a Florida Gulf Coast Barrier Island by Spring Trans-Gulf Migrants and the Projected Effects of Sea Level Rise on Habitat Availability

PubMed Central

Lester, Lori A.; Gutierrez Ramirez, Mariamar; Kneidel, Alan H.; Heckscher, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

Barrier islands on the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico are an internationally important coastal resource. Each spring hundreds of thousands of Nearctic-Neotropical songbirds crossing the Gulf of Mexico during spring migration use these islands because they provide the first landfall for individuals following a trans-Gulf migratory route. The effects of climate change, particularly sea level rise, may negatively impact habitat availability for migrants on barrier islands. Our objectives were (1) to confirm the use of St. George Island, Florida by trans-Gulf migrants and (2) to determine whether forested stopover habitat will be available for migrants on St. George Island following sea level rise. We used avian transect data, geographic information systems, remote sensing, and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three different sea level rise scenarios (0.28 m, 0.82 m, and 2 m) on habitat availability for trans-Gulf migrants. We found considerable use of the island by spring trans-Gulf migrants. Migrants were most abundant in areas with low elevation, high canopy height, and high coverage of forests and scrub/shrub. A substantial percentage of forest (44%) will be lost by 2100 assuming moderate sea level rise (0.82 m). Thus, as sea level rise progresses, less forests will be available for migrants during stopover. Many migratory bird species’ populations are declining, and degradation of barrier island stopover habitat may further increase the cost of migration for many individuals. To preserve this coastal resource, conservation and wise management of migratory stopover areas, especially near ecological barriers like the Gulf of Mexico, will be essential as sea levels rise. PMID:26934343

Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Protection from Southern Mediterranean to the U.S.A. Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Nabil; Williams, Jeffress

2013-04-01

This paper presents an assessment of global sea level rise and the need to incorporate projections of rise into management plans for coastal adaptation. It also discusses the performance of a shoreline revetment; M. Ali Seawall, placed to protect the land against flooding and overtopping at coastal site, within Abu Qir Bay, East of Alexandria, Egypt along the Nile Delta coast. The assessment is conducted to examine the adequacy of the seawall under the current and progressive effects of climate change demonstrated by the anticipated sea level rise during this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) predicts that the Mediterranean will rise 30 cm to 1 meter this century. Coastal zone management of the bay coastline is of utmost significance to the protection of the low agricultural land and the industrial complex located in the rear side of the seawall. Moreover this joint research work highlights the similarity of the nature of current and anticipated coastal zone problems, at several locations around the world, and required adaptation and protection measures. For example many barrier islands in the world such as that in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the U.S., lowland and deltas such as in Italy and the Nile Delta, and many islands are also experiencing significant levels of erosion and flooding that are exacerbated by sea level rise. Global Climatic Changes: At a global scale, an example of the effects of accelerated climate changes was demonstrated. In recent years, the impacts of natural disasters are more and more severe on coastal lowland areas. With the threats of climate change, sea level rise storm surge, progressive storm and hurricane activities and potential subsidence, the reduction of natural disasters in coastal lowland areas receives increased attention. Yet many of their inhabitants are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, and conversions of land to open ocean. These global changes were recently demonstrated in autumn 2010 when the storm Becky reached the Santander Bay, Spain. As reported by THESEUS, the FP-7 EU project (2009-2013), the peak of nearshore significant wave height was about 8 m, the storm surge reached 0.6 m, with tidal level of 90% of the tidal range. The latest storm in December 2010, which hit the Nile Delta and which was the severest in the last decades showed that generated surges, up to 1.0 m as well as a maximum of 7.5 m wave height in the offshore of Alexandria presented a major natural hazard in coastal zones in terms of wave run up and overtopping. Along the US Atlantic Coast, where Hurricane Sandy this autumn and Hurricane Irene in 2011 left chaos in their wakes, a perfect storm of rising sea levels and dense coastal development at high risk . Super storm Sandy sent a storm surge of 4-5 m onto New Jersey's and New York's fragile barrier island and urban shorelines, causing an estimated 70 billion (USD) in damages and widespread misery for coastal inhabitants. Sea Level Rise and Impact on Upgrade of Coastal Structures: Williams (2013) highlights in his recent paper that adaptation planning on national scales in the USA for projected sea-level rise of 0.5-2 m by A.D. 2100 is advisable. Further he points out that sea-level rise, as a major driving force of change for coastal regions, is becoming increasingly important as a hazard to humans and urban areas in the coastal zone worldwide as global climate change takes effect. During the 20th century, sea level began rising at a global average rate of 1.7 mm/yr (). The current average rise rate is 3.1 mm/yr, a 50% increase over the past two decades. Many regions are experiencing even greater rise rates due to local geophysical (e.g., Louisiana, Chesapeake Bay) and oceanographic (mid-Atlantic coast) forces. Further the Mississippi River Delta plain region of Louisiana has much higher than average rates of LRSL rise due to geologic factors such as subsidence and man-made alterations to the delta plain, wetlands, and coast. As a result the entire coast is highly erosional and highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and storms. Detailed mapping studies over the past two decades show that subject to sea-level rise, subsidence, frequent major storms, and reduced sediment budget. Sea-level rise, with high regional variability, is exhibiting acceleration and is expected to continue for centuries unless mitigation is enacted to reduce atmospheric carbon. Low lying coastal plain regions, deltas, and most islands are highly vulnerable. The assessment of Abu-Qir seawall included the review of the current-2011design and past upgrades since 1830. Hydrodynamic analyses were conducted to estimate wave height distributions, wave run up and overtopping over the seawall. Use has been made of the Modified ImSedTran-2D model (Ismail et.al, 2012) as well as universal design standards (EurOtop, 2008). Comparison of the predicted overtopping with the observed wave overtopping volumes during the 8hrs-2010 storm, allowed the verification of the used universal design tools. Based on the results for worst wave design scenarios and anticipated sea level rise after 50 years (50 cm), recommendations are given to increase the height of the seawall cap, to strengthen the beach top and back slope with a facility to drain storm water to increase coastal resilience. Recommendations: Protection of coastal fringes requires that new design alternatives to protect eroding lowland shorelines of deltas and barrier islands should be explored. These soft engineering alternatives are such as beach nourishment, sand dunes stabilization, and storm barriers. Use of integrated barrier island and coastal lagoons & wetlands would act as a buffer zone to defend main land. The sustainability of the integrated natural systems would require (1) barrier island and shoreline restoration (2) hydrologic and vegetation restoration of coastal lagoons, and (3) relocation of development in highly vulnerable areas. Such adaptation planning and restoration projects will require a major undertaking by national governments and international institutions. Joint research projects between international organizations such as: USA research centers ( USGS, NOAA, Corps of Engineers), EU sponsored project groups, EU coastal marine centers as well as other world wide coastal research institutes (CoRI, Alexandria) are encouraged to advance the state of the art on managing coasts to adapt to sea level rise employing cost-effective coastal protection technologies. References 1.Williams, S.J.,"Sea-Level Rise Implications for Coastal Regions", Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 63, 2013. 2.Ismail, N.,Wiegel, R., "Sustainable Solutions for Coastal Zone Management of Lowland and River Delta Coastlines", Proc. International Conference- Littoral 2012, Ostende, Belgium, November 27-29, 2012. 3.Ismail, N., Iskander, M., and El-Sayed, W. "Assessment of Coastal Flooding at Southern Mediterranean with Global Outlook for Lowland Coastal Zones", Proc. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, July 1-6, 2012, Santander, Spain. 4.Moser, S. C., Williams,J.S., and Boesch, D. F., " Wicked Challenges at Land's End: Managing Coastal Vulnerability Under Climate Change'', Annual. Review of Environmental Resources, 37:51-78, 2012.

Using simulations to forecast homeowner response to sea level rise in South Florida: Will they stay or will they go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treuer, G.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities around the world, including South Florida which may be the most financially vulnerable region in the world. Proactive investments in sea level rise adaptive flood protections could reduce South Florida's financial vulnerability. However, it is unclear if local governments and homeowners will be willing to make those investments before it is too late. Our research explores this issue by reporting the results of a novel online simulation that accelerates 348 South Florida homeowners thirty-five years into the future so that they can `live' the effects of sea level rise. The results contain a mix of optimism and caution for the prospects of future adaptation. On the positive side over 75% of participants indicated a willingness to support bond issues to pay for adaptation, even as the costs of the measures and effects of sea level rise increased over the years. Likewise, we find little evidence that politically conservative residents who normally have more skeptical views about climate change would be any less inclined to support adaptation, or only look to information sources that downplay the threat. On the negative side, homeowner interest in moving out of the region increases steadily over time as the sea level rises. This is driven by an increase in worry associated with viewing more information within the simulation.

Habitability at the frontlines of sea level rise: a spatiotemporal analysis of settlements and coastal inundation in eight global sea level rise hotspots between 1990 and 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, S. A.; Wrathall, D.

2017-12-01

Over the coming centuries and millennia, sea level rise will greatly redistribute global human population through displacement and migration. Sudden, large-scale displacement is extremely disruptive to society both for migrants and host communities, and there is a great scientific and policy need to anticipate where, when and how this could happen around sea level rise. We can meet these needs by examining how long-term coastal inundation of settlements has already occurred. Using two global geospatial data sets, the Global Human Settlement Layer and the Global Surface Water Layer, we examine the global spatial concentration of settlement inundation that occurred between 1990 and 2015. We focus on the eight sea level rise hotspots identified in Clark et al (2016), which include Bangladesh, Mekong Delta, Indonesia, Japan, Nile Delta, Philippines, and the US Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and examine areas of convergence between settlement loss density and negative population change. This analysis reveals specific areas of concern within vulnerable countries, and forms the basis for focused investigations of the long-term impact of coastal inundation on various migration systems. This analysis shows us how long-term sets of satellite derived data on human population can help anticipate how sea level rise will alter future patterns of human settlement and migration into the 21st century and beyond.

Warming Seas and Melting Ice Sheets

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Sea level rise is a natural consequence of the warming of our planet. We know this from basic physics. When water heats up, it expands. So when the ocean warms, sea level rises. When ice is exposed to heat, it melts. And when ice on land melts and water runs into the ocean, sea level rises. For thousands of years, sea level has remained relatively stable and human communities have settled along the planet’s coastlines. But now Earth’s seas are rising. Globally, sea level has risen about eight inches since the beginning of the 20th century and more than two inches in the last 20 years alone. All signs suggest that this rise is accelerating. Read more: go.nasa.gov/1heZn29 Caption: An iceberg floats in Disko Bay, near Ilulissat, Greenland, on July 24, 2015. The massive Greenland ice sheet is shedding about 300 gigatons of ice a year into the ocean, making it the single largest source of sea level rise from melting ice. Credits: NASA/Saskia Madlener NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E

2017-04-21

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

2017-01-01

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

2013-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on seagrass will be necessary to inform management of these valuable coastal ecosystems. Models such as these will be important sources of information for management agencies, which require specific information on the likely impacts of sea level rise in coastal areas.

San Francisco Bay Area CHARG: Coastal Hazards Adaptation Resiliency Group, a Multi-Jurisdictional Collaboration to Develop Innovative Regional Solutions to Address Sea Level Rise and Improve Shoreline Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, R.

2017-12-01

For a challenge as complex and far-reaching as sea level rise and improving shoreline resiliency, strong partnerships between scientists, elected officials, decision-makers, and the general public are the only way that effective solutions can be developed. The San Francisco Bay, like many similar sheltered water coastal environments (for example, Galveston Bay, Tampa Bay, or Venetian Lagoon) offers a unique opportunity for multiple jurisdictions to collaborate to address sea level rise on a regional basis. For the San Francisco Bay, significant scientific progress has been made in building a real-time simulation model for riverine and Bay hydrodynamics. Other major scientific initiatives, such as morphology mapping, shoreline mapping, and a sediment budget are also underway. In 2014, leaders from the Bay Area science, engineering, planning, policy, elected, and regulatory communities representing jurisdictions around the Bay joined together to address sea level rise. The group includes people from local, regional, state, and federal agencies and organizations. Together, CHARG (Coastal Hazards Adaptation Resiliency Group) established a collective vision and approach to implementing regional solutions. Decision-makers within many Bay Area jurisdictions are motivated to show demonstrable progress toward addressing sea level rise. However, the cost to implement shoreline resiliency solutions will be very large, and must be founded on strong science.CHARG is now tackling several key technical challenges. One is to develop science-based guidelines for local jurisdictions to determine when a project is local, sub-regional, or regional. Concurrently, several organizations are planning or implementing pilot shoreline resiliency projects and other programs. Many creative regional solutions are possible in a sheltered water environment that simply would not be feasible along the open coast. By definition, these solutions cannot be undertaken by one entity alone. Large-scale regional solutions are only possible through the hard work and collaboration of many. This paper will offer insights into the process of collaboration, initiated by the scientific and engineering communities, to influence and help direct major decisions about shoreline resiliency.

A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Landmarks along Cape Hatteras National Seashore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, M. J.

2015-12-01

Cape Hatteras National Seashore is located along the Outer Banks, a narrow string of barrier islands in eastern North Carolina. The seashore was established to preserve cultural and natural resources of national significance, yet these islands have shoreline rates of change that are predominately erosional, frequently experience storm surge inundation driven by tropical and extra-tropical storm events, and are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Park Service staff are concerned about the vulnerability of historic structures located within the park, and recognized the utility of a coastal hazard risk assessment to assist park managers with long-term planning. They formed a cooperative agreement with researchers at East Carolina University to conduct the assessment, which primarily used GIS to evaluate the susceptibility of 27 historical structures to coastal erosion, storm surge, and sea-level rise. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate a linear regression rate of shoreline movement based on historical shorelines. Those rates were used to simulate the future position of the shoreline along transects. The SLOSH model output was down scaled to a DEM generated from the 2014 NC QL2 LiDAR collection to determine the extent and depth of inundation that would occur from storm events. Sea level rise was modeled for various scenarios referenced to existing MHHW, and also added to each SLOSH model output to determine the effect of a storm event under those sea level rise scenarios. Risk maps were developed to include not only areal coverage for existing structures and districts, but also identify potential areas of relocation or retreat in the long-term. In addition to evaluating vulnerability, timelines for potential impacts provided scenarios for National Park Service staff to research adaption and mitigation strategies.

Enhanced decomposition offsets enhanced productivity and soil carbon accumulation in coastal wetlands responding to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, M.L.; Blum, L.K.

2011-01-01

Coastal wetlands are responsible for about half of all carbon burial in oceans, and their persistence as a valuable ecosystem depends largely on the ability to accumulate organic material at rates equivalent to relative sea level rise. Recent work suggests that elevated CO2 and temperature warming will increase organic matter productivity and the ability of marshes to survive sea level rise. However, we find that organic decomposition rates increase by about 12% per degree of warming. Our measured temperature sensitivity is similar to studies from terrestrial systems, twice as high as the response of salt marsh productivity to temperature warming, and roughly equivalent to the productivity response associated with elevated CO2 in C3 marsh plants. Therefore, enhanced CO2 and warmer temperatures may actually make marshes less resilient to sea level rise, and tend to promote a release of soil carbon. Simple projections indicate that elevated temperatures will increase rates of sea level rise more than any acceleration in organic matter accumulation, suggesting the possibility of a positive feedback between climate, sea level rise, and carbon emissions in coastal environments.

Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kemp, Andrew C.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Vane, Christopher H.; Peltier, W. Richard; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Cahill, Niamh

2015-01-01

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land-level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea-level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long-term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia, we reconstructed ~ 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past ~ 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt-marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide-gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach, which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction, this sea-level history approximates net land-level (subsidence and geoid) change, principally from glacio-isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain (P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea-level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The lisse effect revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weeks, E.P.

2002-01-01

The Lisse effect is a rarely noted phenomenon occurring when infiltration caused by intense rain seals the surface soil layer to airflow, trapping air in the unsaturated zone. Compression of air by the advancing front results in a pressure increase that produces a water-level rise in an observation well screened below the water table that is several times as large as the distance penetrated by the wetting front. The effect is triggered by intense rains and results in a very rapid water-level rise, followed by a recession lasting a few days. The Lisse effect was first noted and explained by Thal Larsen in 1932 from water-level observations obtained in a shallow well in the village of Lisse, Holland. The original explanation does not account for the increased air pressure pushing up on the bottom of the wetting front. Analysis of the effect of this upward pressure indicates that a negative pressure head at the base of the wetting front, ??f, analogous to that postulated by Green and Ampt (1911) to explain initially rapid infiltration rates into unsaturated soils, is involved in producing the Lisse effect. Analysis of recorded observations of the Lisse effect by Larsen and others indicates that the water-level rise, which typically ranges from 0.10 to 0.55 m, should be only slightly larger than |??f| and that the depth of penetration of the wetting front is no more than several millimeters.

Leachate water quality of soils amended with different swine manure-based amendments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the face of the rising level of manure production from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), management options are being sought that can provide nutrient recycling for plant growth and improved soil conditions with minimal environmental impacts. Alternatives to direct manure applicatio...

Birth of the modern Chesapeake Bay estuary between 7.4 and 8.2 ka and implications for global sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratton, John F.; Colman, Steven M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Seal, Robert R.

2002-12-01

Two major pulses of sea-level rise are thought to have taken place since the last glacial maximum — meltwater pulses (mwp) 1A (12 cal ka) and 1B (9.5 cal ka). Between mwp 1B and about 6 cal ka, many of the complex coastal ecosystems which ring the world's oceans began to form. Here we report data for rhenium, carbon isotopes, total organic carbon, and fossil oysters from Chesapeake Bay which span the transition from fresh to brackish water conditions in the bay in the mid-Holocene. These data constrain sea-level change and resulting environmental change in the bay. They indicate that the transition was rapid, and that it was produced by (1) a third pulse of rapid eustatic sea-level rise, or (2) a geometry of the prehistoric Chesapeake Bay basin which predisposed it to a nonlinear response to a steadily rising sea level. Similar nonlinear changes in vulnerable coastal environments are likely to take place in the future due to polar warming, regardless of the timing or rate of sea-level rise.

Birth of the modern Chesapeake Bay estuary between 7.4 and 8.2 ka and implications for global sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratton, John F.; Colman, Steven M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Seal, Robert R.

2003-01-01

Two major pulses of sea-level rise are thought to have taken place since the last glacial maximum — meltwater pulses (mwp) 1A (12 cal ka) and 1B (9.5 cal ka). Between mwp 1B and about 6 cal ka, many of the complex coastal ecosystems which ring the world’s oceans began to form. Here we report data for rhenium, carbon isotopes, total organic carbon, and fossil oysters from Chesapeake Bay which span the transition from fresh to brackish water conditions in the bay in the mid-Holocene. These data constrain sea-level change and resulting environmental change in the bay. They indicate that the transition was rapid, and that it was produced by (1) a third pulse of rapid eustatic sea-level rise, or (2) a geometry of the prehistoric Chesapeake Bay basin which predisposed it to a nonlinear response to a steadily rising sea level. Similar nonlinear changes in vulnerable coastal environments are likely to take place in the future due to polar warming, regardless of the timing or rate of sea-level rise.

A simple model to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on platform beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taborda, Rui; Ribeiro, Mónica Afonso

2015-04-01

Estimates of future beach evolution in response to sea-level rise are needed to assess coastal vulnerability. A research gap is identified in providing adequate predictive methods to use for platform beaches. This work describes a simple model to evaluate the effects of sea-level rise on platform beaches that relies on the conservation of beach sand volume and assumes an invariant beach profile shape. In closed systems, when compared with the Inundation Model, results show larger retreats; the differences are higher for beaches with wide berms and when the shore platform develops at shallow depths. The application of the proposed model to Cascais (Portugal) beaches, using 21st century sea-level rise scenarios, shows that there will be a significant reduction in beach width.

Studying the impact of climate change on flooding in 12 river basins using CCSM4 output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.

2011-12-01

The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on flood frequency changes in twelve large river basins by assessing the changes in upper catchment precipitation as well as the impact of sea-level rise at the river mouths. Using the recently released model output of the CCSM4 for upper catchment precipitation in twelve large river basins as well as the sea-level rise anomalies at the respective river mouths, we assess the impact of climate change on the return periods of flooding in the individual basins. Upper catchment precipitation, discharge as well as annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. In a next step, return levels are compared from both 20th century and future model simulations for time slices at 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. It can be seen that what is e.g. a 20 year flood in present-day climate has a return period of ~15/10 years (RCP 2.6/8.5) in 2070. This effect strengthens as time progresses in the 21st century. Especially in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, changes in sea-level rise can be expected to influence present-day flood characteristics. Sea-level rise anomalies for the 21st century are taken from CCSM4 model output at each of the river mouths. The backwater effect of sea-level rise can be estimated by referring to the geometry of the river channel and calculating an effective additional discharge both at the river mouth and inland. Judging from our work, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing flooding in the respective river basins. Impact of sea-level rise on changes in return levels will be investigated further. To blend both precipitation and sea-level effects together, we use extreme-value theory to calculate how the tails of the current river discharge distribution in both the lower and middle reaches of the river basins will be impacted by changing climate.

An updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nikitina, D.L.; Pizzuto, J.E.; Schwimmer, R.A.; Ramsey, K.W.

2000-01-01

We present an updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast based on new calibrations of 16 previously published radiocarbon dates (Kraft, 1976; Belknap and Kraft, 1977) and 22 new radiocarbon dates of basal peat deposits. A review of published and unpublished 137Cs and 210Pb analyses, and tide gauge data provide the basis for evaluating shorter-term (102 yr) sea-level trends. Paleosea-level elevations for the new basal peat samples were determined from the present vertical zonation of marsh plants relative to mean high water along the Delaware coast and the composition of plant fossils and foraminifera. Current trends in tidal range along the Delaware coast were used to reduce elevations from different locations to a common vertical datum of mean high water at Breakwater Harbor, Delaware. The updated curve is similar to Belknap and Kraft's [J. Sediment. Petrol., 47 (1977) 610-629] original sea-level curve from 12,000 to about 2000 yr BP. The updated curve documents a rate of sea-level rise of 0.9 mm/yr from 1250 yr BP to present (based on 11 dates), in good agreement with other recent sea-level curves from the northern and central U.S. Atlantic coast, while the previous curve documents rates of about 1.3 mm/yr (based on 4 dates). The precision of both estimates, however, is very low, so the significance of these differences is uncertain. A review of 210Pb and 137Cs analyses from salt marshes of Delaware indicates average marsh accretion rates of 3 mm/yr for the last 100 yr, in good agreement with shorter-term estimates of sea-level rise from tide gauge records. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, Alan D.

2009-12-01

When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management, according to Titus et al, is for communities to develop a common vision about which lands will be protected and which lands will yield to the rising sea, similar to the way land use plans identify commercial, residential, agricultural, and conservation lands. The supplementary material in their paper (as well as a related web site suggested by the peer review process of this journal) provides maps that depict the likelihood of shore protection based on existing land use data and the assessment of the local governments. Such maps, they suggest, might be used as a starting point to promote dialogue within communities about which lands should be protected and which lands are allowed to become submerged. A second tripping point relates to conflict between existing environmental laws and their collective ability to respond to the impacts of global warming. For example, property owners are automatically issued permits for construction of hard shore-protection structures (e.g. bulkheads and revetments) without an assessment of their environmental impact. Normally, under the Clean Water Act, the impact of each permit is assessed separately, but there is a special expedited process for activities with no cumulative impact. The Corps of Engineers concluded that shore protection does not have a cumulative impact, and that might be true if shore erosion was rare and stable shores the general rule. But once we recognize that the sea level is rising, then shore erosion becomes the general rule and a cumulative impact is likely. Under the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA), cumulative impacts have been defined as `the impacts of an activity ``added to other past present and reasonably future actions'' regardless of who takes the other actions'. If the NEPA were actually evoked, it would considerably delay permit approvals and substantially impact the Corps of Engineers' process for issuing permits. The potential impact of sea level rise clearly requires a holistic approach to coastal management in which options for shore protection or retreats are clearly identified and where economic, ecosystem and social impacts can be clearly evaluated. At stake are both the future of wetlands that provide important ecosystem services and the safety and sustainability of our coastal communities. This is a huge challenge requiring adequate data, long-term planning, federal-state cooperation, and integration of environmental laws. The time is at hand to assess a business-as-usual response to sea level rise or to explore a more holistic and integrated approach. President Obama has said: `The threat from climate change is serious, it is urgent, and it is growing. Our generation's response to this challenge will be judged by history, for if we fail to meet it—boldly, swiftly, and together—we risk consigning future generations to an irreversible catastrophe' [3]. Though the President was talking about action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, cooperation to address the consequences of rising sea level and changing climate is just as urgent. References [1] Titus J G et al 2009 State and local governments plan for development of most land vulnerable to rising sea level along the US Atlantic coast Environ. Res. Lett. 4 044008 [2] US Global Change Research Program 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (June 2009) [3] www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-UN-Secretary-General-Ban-Ki-moons-Climate-Change-Summit/

Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Walters, David C.; Reay, William G.; Carr, Joel

2016-01-01

Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

Temperature rise, sea level rise and increased radiative forcing - an application of cointegration methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmith, Torben; Thejll, Peter; Johansen, Søren

2016-04-01

We analyse the statistical relationship between changes in global temperature, global steric sea level and radiative forcing in order to reveal causal relationships. There are in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We therefore apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis, originating from the field of econometrics, which is able to correctly handle the analysis of series with trends and other long-range dependencies. Further, we find a relationship between steric sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the steric sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. This result is obtained both when analyzing observed data and data from a CMIP5 historical model run. Finally, we find that in the data from the historical run, the steric sea level, in turn, is driven by the external forcing. Finally, we demonstrate that combining these two results can lead to a novel estimate of radiative forcing back in time based on observations.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

2015-01-01

Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human levee and infrastructure preventing these types of processes. Other modeling efforts done for this area have projected marsh persistence to 2100, but our modeling effort with site-specific datasets allowed us to model at a finer resolution with much higher local confidence, resulting in different results for management. Our results suggest that projected sea-level rise will have significant impacts on marsh plant communities and obligate wildlife, including those already under federal and state protection. Comprehensive modeling as done here improves the potential to implement adaptive management strategies and prevent marsh habitat and wildlife loss in the future.

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

2018-01-01

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Morena; Nicol, Samuel; Wells, Jessie A.; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J. M.; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; McDonald Madden, Eve

2014-01-01

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.

78 FR 36753 - North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-19

... landscape system, considering future sea-level rise and climate change scenarios. In addition, the... management and climate change and sea-level rise considerations. Additional information and a study area map...

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

2017-12-01

Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the general public on issues related to transportation infrastructure in coastal areas while increasing overall public awareness. Also, the outcomes of the project will serve as an educational and research tool to convey to undergraduate and graduate students on how climate changes affect the transportation infrastructure safety/stability in the coastal region of the state.

Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in Coastal New Hampshire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, J. M.; Knott, J. F.; Daniel, J.; Kirshen, P. H.

2017-12-01

Coastal communities with high population density and low topography are vulnerable from sea-level rise (SLR) caused by climate change. Groundwater in coastal communities will rise with sea level impacting water quality, the structural integrity of infrastructure, and natural ecosystem health. SLR-induced groundwater rise has been studied in areas of high aquifer transmissivity and in low-lying areas immediately along the coast. In this regional study, we investigate SLR-induced groundwater rise in a coastal area characterized by shallow unconsolidated deposits overlying fractured bedrock, typical of the glaciated northeast United States. MODFLOW, a numerical groundwater-flow model, is used with groundwater observations, lidar topography, surface-water hydrology, and groundwater withdrawals to investigate SLR-induced changes in groundwater levels and vadose-zone thickness in New Hampshire's Seacoast. The SLR groundwater signal is detected up to 5 km from the coast, more than 3 times farther inland than projected surface-water flooding associated with SLR. Relative groundwater rise ranges from 38 to 98% of SLR within 1 km of the shoreline and drops below 4% between 4 and 5 km from the coast. The largest magnitude of SLR-induced groundwater rise occurs in the marine and estuarine deposits and land areas with tidal water bodies on three sides. In contrast, groundwater rise is dampened near streams. Groundwater inundation caused by 2 m of SLR is projected to contribute 48% of the total land inundation area in the City of Portsmouth with consequences for built and natural resources. Freshwater wetlands are projected to expand 3% by year 2030 increasing to 25% by year 2100 coupled with water-depth increases. These results imply that underground infrastructure and natural resources in coastal communities will be impacted by rising groundwater much farther inland than previously thought when considering only surface-water flooding from SLR.

Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

EPA Science Inventory

Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

The Measurement of Vocational Commitment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weis, Susan F.; Hubbard, Constance F.

Recent efforts toward career education and the rise in occupationally oriented programs on the secondary and postsecondary level encourage a close examination of the nature of the relationship between people and their vocations. A 74 item device, the Vocational Commitment Index was developed to assess this relationship. Based upon a theoretically…

Mathematical Literacy--It's Become Fundamental

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCrone, Sharon Soucy; Dossey, John A.

2007-01-01

The rising tide of numbers and statistics in daily life signals a need for a fundamental broadening of the concept of literacy: mathematical literacy assuming a coequal role in the curriculum alongside language-based literacy. Mathematical literacy is not about studying higher levels of formal mathematics, but about making math relevant and…

Teachers' Knowledge of Education Law

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Littleton, Mark

2008-01-01

The knowledge base of education-related law is growing at a rapid pace. The increase in federal and state statutes is rising commensurate with litigation that directs teachers on curricular, professional, and social matters. At the same time, numerous studies provide significant evidence that teachers lack an adequate level of knowledge of…

Iowa: Education and Workforce Trends through 2025

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnevale, Anthony P.; Smith, Nicole; Gulish, Artem; Hanson, Andrew R.

2015-01-01

Economic projections show that skills-based technological change across industries and occupations will support rising demand for postsecondary education and training. By 2025, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce projects that 68 percent of the jobs in Iowa will require some level of postsecondary education. A key…

The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species’ trait approach

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, the world’s ecological resources are “flying too close” to the sun, and climate change will impact near-coastal species through temperature, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification and indirectly through changes in invasive species and land-use patt...

TRAIT-BASED FRAMEWORK TO PREDICTING RELATIVE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NEAR-COASTAL SPECIES AND HABITAT

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, near-coastal species are “flying too close” to the sun, and are being impacted by climate-induced changes in air and ocean temperature, precipitation, salinity, ocean pH, sea level rise, and nonindigenous species. Sound management requires knowledge of wh...

The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Bennion, Vicki; Grinham, Alistair; Cahoon, Donald R.

2011-01-01

Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y-1) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y-1) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y-1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7–9 mm y-1 in the mangrove and 1–3 mm y-1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y-1, possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.

Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

2013-04-01

Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 %more » and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.« less

Primary Care Practice Transformation and the Rise of Consumerism.

PubMed

Shrank, William H

2017-04-01

Americans are increasingly demanding the same level of service in healthcare that they receive in other services and products that they buy. This rise in consumerism poses challenges for primary care physicians as they attempt to transform their practices to succeed in a value-based reimbursement landscape, where they are rewarded for managing costs and improving the health of populations. In this paper, three examples of consumer-riven trends are described: retail healthcare, direct and concierge care, and home-based diagnostics and care. For each, the intersection of consumer-driven care and the goals of value-based primary care are explored. If the correct payment and connectivity enablers are in place, some examples of consumer-driven care are well-positioned to support primary care physicians in their mission to deliver high-quality, efficient care for the populations they serve. However, concerns about access and equity make other trends less consistent with that mission.

Possibilities of using aluminate cements in high-rise construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaddo, Maria

2018-03-01

The article describes preferable ways of usage of alternative binders for high-rise construction based on aluminate cements. Possible areas of rational use of aluminate cements with the purpose of increasing the service life of materials and the adequacy of the durability of materials with the required durability of the building are analyzed. The results of the structure, shrinkage and physical and mechanical properties of concrete obtained from dry mixes on the base of aluminate cements for self-leveling floors are presented. To study the shrinkage mechanism of curing binders and to evaluate the role of evaporation of water in the development of shrinkage was undertaken experiment with simple unfilled systems: gypsum binder, portland cement and «corrosion resistant high alumina cement + gypsum». Principle possibility of binder with compensated shrinkage based on aluminate cement, gypsum and modern superplasticizers was defined, as well as cracking resistance and corrosion resistance provide durability of the composition.

Special Issue: Response of Microbial Communities to Environmental Changes.

PubMed

Stingl, Ulrich

2018-03-30

Environmental issues such as eutrophication, ocean acidification, sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, increase in carbon dioxide levels, or rise of average global temperatures, among many others, are impacting and changing whole ecosystems [...].

Building a Community Framework for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culver, M. E.; Schubel, J.; Davidson, M. A.; Haines, J.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise and inundation pose a substantial risk to many coastal communities, and the risk is projected to increase because of continued development, changes in the frequency and intensity of inundation events, and acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. Representatives from a variety of these agencies and organizations have developed a shared framework to help coastal communities structure and facilitate community-wide adaptation processes and to help agencies determine where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. For sea level rise planning and implementation, the requirements for high-quality data and information are vast and the availability is limited. Participants stressed the importance of data interoperability to ensure that users are able to apply data from a variety of sources and to improve availability and confidence in the data. Participants were able to prioritize the following six categories of data needed to support future sea level rise planning and implementation: - Data to understand land forms and where and how water will flow - Monitoring data and environmental drivers - Consistent sea level rise scenarios and projections across agencies to support local planning - Data to characterize vulnerabilities and impacts of sea level rise - Community characteristics - Legal frameworks and administrative structure. To develop a meaningful and effective sea level rise adaptation plan, state and local planners must understand how the availability, scale, and uncertainty of these types of data will impact new guidelines or adaptation measures. The tools necessary to carry-out the adaptation planning process need to be understood in terms of data requirements, assumptions of the method, and the reliability and utility of the outputs. This type of information will assist the community in choosing among the available options. Communities have experience with storm and hazardous events, and the response typically is to return to pre-event conditions. With sea level rise, there will need to be a shift in perception and response from storm events, and the people must collectively arrive at a new vision for their community in light of a changing environment. Understanding the possible scenarios and the uncertainty or probability of those scenarios is a critical component in the adaptation process. Although there is a broad constituency that does not know the issue well, many communities are savvy about the impacts of sea level rise. Armed with the available information and resources and an understanding of the uncertainties, many communities are ready to take action. Successful adaptation planning will require that all sectors — local, state, federal, academic, nongovernmental, and the private sector — work together throughout the process to provide local communities with resources, scientific and political support.

Rising Sea Levels: Truth or Scare?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peacock, Alan

2007-01-01

When "ITV News" ran an item that shocked the author, about rising sea levels that will have caused the entire evacuation of the islands by the end of this year, he began to wonder whether the Pacific Ocean is really rising as fast as this. The media reporting of such things can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it brought to the author's…

An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, David M.; Dietrich, J. Casey; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.

2017-01-01

Rising sea level represents a significant threat to coastal communities and ecosystems, including altered habitats and increased vulnerability to coastal storms and recurrent inundation. This threat is exemplified in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where low topography, marshes, and a prevalence of tropical storms have resulted in extensive coastal impacts. The ability to facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures relies, in part, on the development of robust predictive capabilities that incorporate complex biological processes with physical dynamics. Initiated in 2010, the 6-year Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise—Northern Gulf of Mexico project applied a transdisciplinary science approach to develop a suite of integrated modeling platforms informed by empirical data that are capable of evaluating a range of climate change scenarios. This special issue highlights resultant integrated models focused on tidal hydrodynamics, shoreline morphology, oyster ecology, coastal wetland vulnerability, and storm surges that demonstrate the need for dynamic models to incorporate feedbacks among physical and biological processes in assessments of sea level rise effects on coastal systems. Effects are projected to be significant, spatially variable and nonlinear relative to sea level rise rates. Scenarios of higher sea level rise rates are projected to exceed thresholds of wetland sustainability, and many regions will experience enhanced storm surges. Influenced by an extensive collaborative stakeholder engagement process, these assessments on the coastal dynamics of sea level rise provide a strong foundation for resilience measures in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a transferable approach for application to other coastal regions throughout the world.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Experimental Investigation of River Avulsion and Land-Loss on a Backwater-Influenced Delta Undergoing Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikes, K.; Chadwick, A. J.; Lamb, M. P.; Fuller, B. M.

2016-12-01

Predicting the frequency of river channel avulsions and the rate of land-loss on deltas is important for hazard mitigation, ecological protection, and coastal sustainability, especially given modern rates of relative sea level rise. Previous work has investigated the effect of hydrodynamic backwater in mediating sedimentation patterns and channel avulsions on deltas, but the effect of sea-level rise on backwater-influenced deltas has yet to be explored in experiments. We will present preliminary results from a flume experiment designed to explore the role of sea-level rise on the evolution of a backwater-mediated delta. The experiment was conducted in the river-ocean facility at Caltech, where a 7m long, 14cm wide alluvial river drains into a 6m by 3m "ocean" basin under subcritical flow conditions. We used periodic flood events with different discharges to produce persistent non-uniform flow with a backwater length of 1m. Using a combination of image processing and topographic scans, we will characterize the frequency of backwater-mediated avulsions and the evolution of discrete deltaic lobes under a series of steady sea-level rise rates of different magnitude. We predict that, under moderate rise rates, enhanced aggradation will cause channels to avulse at an accelerated pace, replenishing inactive lobes more quickly and naturally acting to mitigate the extent of drowning along the delta shoreline. However, for higher rise rates, we hypothesize that rapid shoreline retreat may shift the backwater zone upstream, leading to the complete abandonment of deltaic lobes.

Human Impacts On The Bengal Delta's Response To Rapid Climate And Sea-Level Changes: Who Threatens Whom? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodbred, S. L.

2009-12-01

The densely populated country of Bangladesh is often cited as being severely threatened by predicted changes in climate and accelerated sea-level rise. Justification for this grave assessment is founded in part on the low-lying nation's frequent inundation by river floods and storm surges, which affect millions of people annually. Indeed, nearly 50% of the delta system lies <3 m above sea level, and the 2001 IPCC report suggested that a 1.5 m rise could inundate 22,000 km2 of coastal lowland and displace 17 million people. However, these signs of pending trouble contrast in many ways with patterns of delta behavior observed in the geological record. Sedimentary deposits from the early Holocene demonstrate that the Bengal delta remained largely stable in the face of very rapid sea-level rise, owing to a strengthened Asian monsoon, enhanced fluvial sediment fluxes, and an effective dispersal system. So how can we assess this system's likely response to environmental change based on such seemingly contradictory patterns from the modern and Holocene delta? A first step would be to acknowledge that flooding and land loss are very different processes, and often negatively correlated. For the Bengal delta in particular, coastal and upland flooding is the very process that maintains the system's stability in the facing of rising seas. While such flooding is a strain on humans, for the natural environment it speaks more to a healthful future than decline. Here I present field-based observations of sediment dispersal in the modern Bengal delta, which demonstrate how the system may remain relatively stable over the next century. However, this potentially acceptable outcome becomes increasingly unlikely if human interferences are considered. For example, short-term strategies to mitigate flooding would likely involve artificial leveeing of the river and the diking of coastal lowlands, both of which would limit sedimentation and diminish relative elevation of the delta surface. Threats upstream of the delta also include river damming to address demands for hydroelectric power and water resources in India, with a resulting decline in sediment discharge to the coast. Ultimately, it may be the impacts of such direct human-modification to the Bengal delta and river systems that outpace - in time and severity - those resulting from climate and sea-level changes alone.

Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

2013-12-01

The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

Water level and strain changes preceding and following the August 4, 1985 Kettleman Hills, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roeloffs, E.; Quilty, E.

1997-01-01

Two of the four wells monitored near Parkfield, California, during 1985 showed water level rises beginning three days before the M4 6.1 Kettleman Hills earthquake. In one of these wells, the 3.0 cm rise was nearly unique in five years of water level data. However, in the other well, which showed a 3.8 cm rise, many other changes of comparable size have been observed. Both wells that did not display pre-earthquake rises tap partially confined aquifers that cannot sustain pressure changes due to tectonic strain having periods longer than several days. We evaluate the effect of partial aquifer confinement on the ability of these four wells to display water level changes in response to aquifer strain. Although the vertical hydraulic diffusivities cannot be determined uniquely, we can find a value of diffusivity for each site that is consistent with the site's tidal and barometric responses as well as with the rate of partial recovery of the coseismic water level drops. Furthermore, the diffusivity for one well is high enough to explain why the preseismic rise could not have been detected there. For the fourth well, the diffusivity is high enough to have reduced the size of the preseismic signal as much as 50%, although it should still have been detectable. Imperfect confinement cannot explain the persistent water level changes in the two partially confined aquifers, but it does show that they were not due to volume strain. The pre-earthquake water level rises may have been precursors to the Kettleman Hills earthquake. If so, they probably were not caused by accelerating slip over the part of the fault plane that ruptured in that earthquake because they are of opposite sign to the observed coseismic water level drops.

Black Sea outflow response to Holocene meltwater events.

PubMed

Herrle, Jens O; Bollmann, Jörg; Gebühr, Christina; Schulz, Hartmut; Sheward, Rosie M; Giesenberg, Annika

2018-03-06

During the Holocene, North American ice sheet collapse and rapid sea-level rise reconnected the Black Sea with the global ocean. Rapid meltwater releases into the North Atlantic and associated climate change arguably slowed the pace of Neolithisation across southeastern Europe, originally hypothesized as a catastrophic flooding that fueled culturally-widespread deluge myths. However, we currently lack an independent record linking the timing of meltwater events, sea-level rise and environmental change with the timing of Neolithisation in southeastern Europe. Here, we present a sea surface salinity record from the Northern Aegean Sea indicative of two meltwater events at ~8.4 and ~7.6 kiloyears that can be directly linked to rapid declines in the establishment of Neolithic sites in southeast Europe. The meltwater events point to an increased outflow of low salinity water from the Black Sea driven by rapid sea level rise >1.4 m following freshwater outbursts from Lake Agassiz and the final decay of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our results shed new light on the link between catastrophic sea-level rise and the Neolithisation of southeastern Europe, and present a historical example of how coastal populations could have been impacted by future rapid sea-level rise.

Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review.

PubMed

Dvorak, Ana C; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Galletti, Andrea; Benzecry, Bernardo; Malone, Hannah; Boguszewski, Vicki; Bird, Jason

2018-07-01

Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insulin secretion at high altitude in man

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawhney, R. C.; Malhotra, A. S.; Singh, T.; Rai, R. M.; Sinha, K. C.

1986-09-01

The effect of hypoxia on circulatory levels of insulin, its response to oral glucose administration (100 g) and changes in circadian rhythms of glucose as well as insulin were evaluated in euglycemic males at sea level (SL, 220 m) during their stay at high altitude (3500 m, SJ) and in high altitude natives (HAN). Basal glucose levels were not altered at high altitude but the rise in glucose (δ glucose) after glucose load was significantly higher in SJ and HAN (p<0.01) as compared to SL values. An increase (p<0.01) both in basal as well as glucose induced rise in insulin secretion (δ insulin) was observed at HA. The rise in insulin in SJ was significantly higher (p<0.01) than in HAN. This elevation in glucose and insulin levels was also evident at different times of the day. The circadian rhythmicity of glucose as well as insulin was altered by the altitude stress. The findings of the study show a rise in insulin level at HA but the hyperglycemia in the face of hyper-insulinism require the presumption of a simultaneous and dispropotionate rise of insulin antagonistic hormones upsetting the effect of insulin on glucose metabolism.

Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

PubMed

Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

2017-09-11

Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

Enhanced decomposition offsets enhanced productivity and soil carbon accumulation in coastal wetlands responding to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, M.L.; Blum, L.K.

2011-01-01

Coastal wetlands are responsible for about half of all carbon burial in oceans, and their persistence as a valuable ecosystem depends largely on the ability to accumulate organic material at rates equivalent to relative sea level rise. Recent work suggests that elevated CO2 and temperature warming will increase organic matter productivity and the ability of marshes to survive sea level rise. However, we find that organic decomposition rates increase by about 12% per degree of warming. Our measured temperature sensitivity is similar to studies from terrestrial systems, twice as high as the response of salt marsh productivity to temperature warming, and roughly equivalent to the productivity response associated with elevated CO2 in C3 marsh plants. Therefore, enhanced CO2 and warmer temperatures may actually make marshes less resilient to sea level rise, and tend to promote a release of soil carbon. Simple projections indicate that elevated temperatures will increase rates of sea level rise more than any acceleration in organic matter accumulation, suggesting the possibility of a positive feedback between climate, sea level rise, and carbon emissions in coastal environments. ?? 2011 Author(s).

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

1989-01-01

An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

A Coastal Hazards Data Base for the U.S. Gulf Coast (1993) (NDP-04bB)

DOE Data Explorer

Gornitz, Vivien M. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (USA); White, Tammy W. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2008-01-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the U.S. Gulf Coast at risk to sea-level rise. The data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the U.S. Gulf Coast into 0.25° latitude by 0.25° longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data base systems. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data on elevations, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion), tidal ranges, and wave heights.

The Contribution of Mangrove Expansion to Salt Marsh Loss on the Texas Gulf Coast

PubMed Central

Brody, Samuel D.; Louchouarn, Patrick

2015-01-01

Landscape-level shifts in plant species distribution and abundance can fundamentally change the ecology of an ecosystem. Such shifts are occurring within mangrove-marsh ecotones, where over the last few decades, relatively mild winters have led to mangrove expansion into areas previously occupied by salt marsh plants. On the Texas (USA) coast of the western Gulf of Mexico, most cases of mangrove expansion have been documented within specific bays or watersheds. Based on this body of relatively small-scale work and broader global patterns of mangrove expansion, we hypothesized that there has been a recent regional-level displacement of salt marshes by mangroves. We classified Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper images using artificial neural networks to quantify black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) expansion and salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora and other grass and forb species) loss over 20 years across the entire Texas coast. Between 1990 and 2010, mangrove area grew by 16.1 km2, a 74% increase. Concurrently, salt marsh area decreased by 77.8 km2, a 24% net loss. Only 6% of that loss was attributable to mangrove expansion; most salt marsh was lost due to conversion to tidal flats or water, likely a result of relative sea level rise. Our research confirmed that mangroves are expanding and, in some instances, displacing salt marshes at certain locations. However, this shift is not widespread when analyzed at a larger, regional level. Rather, local, relative sea level rise was indirectly implicated as another important driver causing regional-level salt marsh loss. Climate change is expected to accelerate both sea level rise and mangrove expansion; these mechanisms are likely to interact synergistically and contribute to salt marsh loss. PMID:25946132

The contribution of mangrove expansion to salt marsh loss on the Texas Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Armitage, Anna R; Highfield, Wesley E; Brody, Samuel D; Louchouarn, Patrick

2015-01-01

Landscape-level shifts in plant species distribution and abundance can fundamentally change the ecology of an ecosystem. Such shifts are occurring within mangrove-marsh ecotones, where over the last few decades, relatively mild winters have led to mangrove expansion into areas previously occupied by salt marsh plants. On the Texas (USA) coast of the western Gulf of Mexico, most cases of mangrove expansion have been documented within specific bays or watersheds. Based on this body of relatively small-scale work and broader global patterns of mangrove expansion, we hypothesized that there has been a recent regional-level displacement of salt marshes by mangroves. We classified Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper images using artificial neural networks to quantify black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) expansion and salt marsh (Spartina alterniflora and other grass and forb species) loss over 20 years across the entire Texas coast. Between 1990 and 2010, mangrove area grew by 16.1 km(2), a 74% increase. Concurrently, salt marsh area decreased by 77.8 km(2), a 24% net loss. Only 6% of that loss was attributable to mangrove expansion; most salt marsh was lost due to conversion to tidal flats or water, likely a result of relative sea level rise. Our research confirmed that mangroves are expanding and, in some instances, displacing salt marshes at certain locations. However, this shift is not widespread when analyzed at a larger, regional level. Rather, local, relative sea level rise was indirectly implicated as another important driver causing regional-level salt marsh loss. Climate change is expected to accelerate both sea level rise and mangrove expansion; these mechanisms are likely to interact synergistically and contribute to salt marsh loss.

Differentiating Natural and Anthropogenic Groundwater-Level Changes in Critical Habitats: An Example from Devils Hole, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halford, K. J.; Jackson, T.; Fenelon, J.

2017-12-01

Endangered species such as the Devils Hole pupfish can be affected by decadal groundwater-level changes of less than 1 ft. These relatively minor changes in long-term water levels primarily result from temporal variations in recharge and groundwater development. Natural groundwater-level changes are the summation of episodic rises from infrequent recharge events and steady declines from regional groundwater discharge. Rising water levels have been observed in Devils Hole and across southern Nevada in response to wetter conditions during 1970-2016 relative to the 1900-1970 period. Interpretation of water-level changes in Devils Hole were made tractable by differentiating naturally occurring rises from pumping effects with analytical water-level models. Effects of local and regional pumping on water-level changes in Devils Hole were differentiated easily with a calibrated groundwater-flow model after removing natural rising trends. Annual average water levels declined 2.3 ft from 1968-1972 in response to local pumping within 2 mi of Devils Hole and rose 1.7 ft from 1973-2016 in response to the cumulative effects of recharge, recovery from the cessation of local pumping, and long-term declines of regional pumping.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

PubMed

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Measurement and analysis of electromagnetic pollution generated by GSM-900 mobile phone networks in Erciyes University, Turkey.

PubMed

Sorgucu, Ugur; Develi, Ibrahim

2012-12-01

Mobile phones are becoming increasingly important in our everyday lives. The rising number of mobile phones reflects a similar increase in the number of base stations. Because of this rapid evolution, the establishment and planning of new base stations has become mandatory. However, the rise in the number of base stations, in terms of human health, is potentially very harmful. It is important to analyze the radiation levels of base stations until we can confirm that they are definitely not harmful in the long term. Mapping of electromagnetic field (EMF) is also important from a medical point of view because it provides useful information, for example, on the detection of diseases caused by EMF. With the help of this information the distribution of diseases over different regions can be obtained. In this article, the electromagnetic radiation levels of base stations were measured at 80 different points in Erciyes University (ERU), Turkey and detailed information about the measurement tools and measurement method were given. It was observed that no area in ERU exceeded the national and international limits. It is also observed that the effects of base stations vary according to duration and degree of exposure. Therefore, if people are exposed to a very low-intensity electromagnetic field for a very long time, serious health problems can occur.

Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect. Hearing before the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight and the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Respresentatives, Ninety-Eighth Congress, Second Session. (No. 119).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Committee on Science and Technology.

Increased levels of carbon dioxide have contributed to the problematic phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect. Evidence has indicated that the rise in carbon dioxide levels could be accurately correlated with a rise in the Earth's mean temperature, a shrinking of the polar icecaps, and a resulting rise in the Earth's mean sea level. The…

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes

PubMed Central

Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D.

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change. PMID:28859097

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes.

PubMed

Crotty, Sinead M; Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change.

Using Groundwater Modeling to Evaluate Impacts of Sea Level Rise on A Coastal Riverine Ecosystem: A Case Study of Saint Jones River Water Shed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, C.; McKenna, T. E.

2016-12-01

A 3-D, transient, variable-density groundwater flow model (SEAWAT) is used to simulate the groundwater response to predicted sea level rise in the Saint Jones River watershed adjacent to the Delaware Estuary. Sea level rise directly leads to substantial changes in the depth of water table, and these changes can extend far inland due to the long tidal rivers in this area. This research studied the impacts of three different sea level rise scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m and 1.5m) on two concerned aspects in the area: failure of septic tank system and loss of agriculture land. The model results indicate that 1) 10% 13% of current existing septic tank will fail as the water table rise to less than 1.5meters from land surface, and 2) approximate 271 to 927 acres of agriculture land, which covers about 4% 13% of total current agriculture land in the study area, will be lost due to water table rise above the effective rooting depth. To count in the uncertainty of climate change in the future, Monte Carlo simulation was applied and a linear transformation model was created and verified to facilitate the tremendous computation.

Will fluctuations in salt marsh–mangrove dominance alter vulnerability of a subtropical wetland to sea‐level rise?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mckee, Karen L.; Vervaeke, William

2018-01-01

To avoid submergence during sea-level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea-level rise may change. To compare how well mangroves and salt marshes accommodate sea-level rise, we conducted a manipulative field experiment in a subtropical plant community in the subsiding Mississippi River Delta. Experimental plots were established in spatially equivalent positions along creek banks in monospecific stands of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) or Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and in mixed stands containing both species. To examine the effect of disturbance on elevation dynamics, vegetation in half of the plots was subjected to freezing (mangrove) or wrack burial (salt marsh), which caused shoot mortality. Vertical soil development was monitored for 6 years with the surface elevation table-marker horizon system. Comparison of land movement with relative sea-level rise showed that this plant community was experiencing an elevation deficit (i.e., sea level was rising faster than the wetland was building vertically) and was relying on elevation capital (i.e., relative position in the tidal frame) to survive. Although Avicennia plots had more elevation capital, suggesting longer survival, than Spartina or mixed plots, vegetation type had no effect on rates of accretion, vertical movement in root and sub-root zones, or net elevation change. Thus, these salt marsh and mangrove assemblages were accreting sediment and building vertically at equivalent rates. Small-scale disturbance of the plant canopy also had no effect on elevation trajectories—contrary to work in peat-forming wetlands showing elevation responses to changes in plant productivity. The findings indicate that in this deltaic setting with strong physical influences controlling elevation (sediment accretion, subsidence), mangrove replacement of salt marsh, with or without disturbance, will not necessarily alter vulnerability to sea-level rise.

Impacts of artificial ocean alkalinization on the carbon cycle and climate in Earth system simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Miriam Ferrer; Ilyina, Tatiana

2016-06-01

Using the state-of-the-art emissions-driven Max Planck Institute Earth system model, we explore the impacts of artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) with a scenario based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework. Addition of 114 Pmol of alkalinity to the surface ocean stabilizes atmospheric CO2 concentration to RCP4.5 levels under RCP8.5 emissions. This scenario removes 940 GtC from the atmosphere and mitigates 1.5 K of global warming within this century. The climate adjusts to the lower CO2 concentration preventing the loss of sea ice and high sea level rise. Seawater pH and the carbonate saturation state (Ω) rise substantially above levels of the current decade. Pronounced differences in regional sensitivities to AOA are projected, with the Arctic Ocean and tropical oceans emerging as hot spots for biogeochemical changes induced by AOA. Thus, the CO2 mitigation potential of AOA comes at a price of an unprecedented ocean biogeochemistry perturbation with unknown ecological consequences.

The effectiveness of reintegrative shaming and restorative justice conferences: focusing on juvenile offenders' perceptions in Australian reintegrative shaming experiments.

PubMed

Kim, Hee Joo; Gerber, Jurg

2012-10-01

This article examines the effectiveness of diversionary restorative justice (RJ) conferences through the eyes of juvenile offenders. In Australia, Reintegrative Shaming Experiments (RISE) are based on Braithwaite's theory of reintegrative shaming. Previous studies, although showing that RISE reported high levels of victim satisfaction and positive changes in the attitudes of offenders, also demonstrated that it has different outcomes for juvenile offenders depending on the type of offense with which they were charged. However, the effectiveness of RISE in terms of the offenders' perceptions has not been addressed, and the impact of the offenders' perceptions about RISE still remains under investigation. Using Australian data from RISE between 1995 and 1999, this article examines juvenile offenders' perceptions on preventing reoffending, repaying the victim and society, and the degree of repentance. The data were taken from interviews with juvenile offenders to measure their perceptions after the court or RISE processing. A comparison of standard court processing effects and RISE on juvenile offending, including property crime, shoplifting, and violent offenses, was undertaken. The results from this study were somewhat inconsistent with previous research. In this study, there was no significant relationship between RJ conference and the offenders' own perceptions on the prevention of future offending. However, it was found that there were treatment effects on repaying the victim, repaying society, and the degree of feeling repentance, and that younger offenders wanted to repay the victim/society and feel repentance.

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates of rise are continuously increasing. Analysis of the a global tide-gauge record (Church and White, 2011) indicated that the rate of sea-level rise increased continuously since 1880AD and is currently 2.57mm/yr (95% credible interval of 1.71 to 4.35mm/yr). Application of the model a proxy reconstruction from North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011) indicated that the mean rate of rise in this locality since the middle of the 19th century (current rate of 2.66 mm/yr with a 95% credible interval of 1.29 to 4.59mm/yr) is in agreement with results from the tide gauge analysis and is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.

Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

Evaluation of marsh development processes at Fire Island National Seashore: Recent and historic perspectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; King, D.R.; Cahoon, D.R.; Lynch, J.C.; Appleby, P.G.

2007-01-01

Purpose and significance of the study: Salt marshes are dynamic environments, increasing in vertical elevation and migrating, often landward, as sea level rises. With sea level rise greater than marsh elevation increase, marshes can be submerged, marsh soils become waterlogged, and plant growth becomes stressed, often resulting in conversion of vegetation-dominated marsh to mudflat or open water habitat. Given that the rate of sea level rise is expected to accelerate over the next century and that some marshes in the northeast are becoming submerged (e.g., Jamaica Bay, NY), it is important to understand the processes that control marsh development. More specifically, the objectives of this project were to quantify vertical marsh elevation change in relation to recent rates of sea-level rise and to investigate factors or processes that are most influential in controlling the development and maintenance of Fire Island salt marshes.

Visualizing Sea Level Rise with Augmented Reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kintisch, E. S.

2013-12-01

Looking Glass is an application on the iPhone that visualizes in 3-D future scenarios of sea level rise, overlaid on live camera imagery in situ. Using a technology known as augmented reality, the app allows a layperson user to explore various scenarios of sea level rise using a visual interface. Then the user can see, in an immersive, dynamic way, how those scenarios would affect a real place. The first part of the experience activates users' cognitive, quantitative thinking process, teaching them how global sea level rise, tides and storm surge contribute to flooding; the second allows an emotional response to a striking visual depiction of possible future catastrophe. This project represents a partnership between a science journalist, MIT, and the Rhode Island School of Design, and the talk will touch on lessons this projects provides on structuring and executing such multidisciplinary efforts on future design projects.

Stratigraphy and Facies of Cretaceous Schrader Bluff and Prince Creek Formations in Colville River Bluffs, North Slope, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flores, Romeo M.; Myers, Mark D.; Houseknecht, David W.; Stricker, Gary D.; Brizzolara, Donald W.; Ryherd, Timothy J.; Takahashi, Kenneth I.

2007-01-01

Stratigraphic and sedimentologic studies of facies of the Upper Cretaceous rocks along the Colville River Bluffs in the west-central North Slope of Alaska identified barrier shoreface deposits consisting of vertically stacked, coarsening-upward parasequences in the Schrader Bluff Formation. This vertical stack of parasequence deposits represents progradational sequences that were affected by shoaling and deepening cycles caused by fluctuations of sea level. Further, the vertical stack may have served to stabilize accumulation of voluminous coal deposits in the Prince Creek Formation, which formed braided, high-sinuosity meandering, anastomosed, and low-sinuosity meandering fluvial channels and related flood plain deposits. The erosional contact at the top of the uppermost coarsening-upward sequence, however, suggests a significant drop of base level (relative sea level) that permitted a semiregional subaerial unconformity to develop at the contact between the Schrader Bluff and Prince Creek Formations. This drop of relative sea level may have been followed by a relative sea-level rise to accommodate coal deposition directly above the unconformity. This rise was followed by a second drop of relative sea level, with formation of incised valley topography as much as 75 ft deep and an equivalent surface of a major marine erosion or mass wasting, or both, either of which can be traced from the Colville River Bluffs basinward to the subsurface in the west-central North Slope. The Prince Creek fluvial deposits represent late Campanian to late Maastrichtian depositional environments that were affected by these base level changes influenced by tectonism, basin subsidence, and sea-level fluctuations.

Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical/engineering limits; • Economic/financial limits; • Socio-political limits. These limits will be discussed and their implications considered and place in the context of long-term planning for these issues.

Increasing extreme water level flood risk as a result of future sea-level rise: A case study on a coastal city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, A.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. In the context of climate change, this study explored the impact of future sea-level rise on the flood risk of extreme water levels. Using Rongcheng City in Shandong Province, China as a case study, flooded area, expected direct damage losses, and affected population and GDP were assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three greenhouse gas concentration Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that, as a result of sea-level rise induced by climate change, the flooded areas of Rongcheng City would increase by 3.23% to 10.64% in 2050 and by as much as 4.98% to 19.87% in 2100, compared with current recurrence periods. Residential land and farmland are at greatest risk of flooding in terms of exposure and losses than other land-use types, and under a high degree RCP 8.5 scenario, expected damage losses would be between 59.84 billion and 86.45 billion in 2050. Results show that the increase in total direct damage losses would reach an average of 60% in 2100 as a result of a 0.82 m sea-level rise. Similarly, affected population and GDP would increase by between 4.95% and 13.87% and between 3.66% and 10.95% in 2050, and by as much as 7.69% to 29.01% and 5.30% to 20.50% in 2100. This study shows that sea-level rise significantly shortens recurrence periods of extreme water levels, makes extreme flood events more frequent, and exacerbates the risk of future flooding. Our results suggest that, if there is no adaptation, sea-level rise will greatly increase the risk of flooding and severely impact human habitability along coastlines.

Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Sea-level-induced seismicity and submarine landslide occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, Daniel S.; Luttrell, Karen M.; Chaytor, Jason D.

2013-01-01

The temporal coincidence between rapid late Pleistocene sea-level rise and large-scale slope failures is widely documented. Nevertheless, the physical mechanisms that link these phenomena are poorly understood, particularly along nonglaciated margins. Here we investigate the causal relationships between rapid sea-level rise, flexural stress loading, and increased seismicity rates along passive margins. We find that Coulomb failure stress across fault systems of passive continental margins may have increased more than 1 MPa during rapid late Pleistocene–early Holocene sea-level rise, an amount sufficient to trigger fault reactivation and rupture. These results suggest that sea-level–modulated seismicity may have contributed to a number of poorly understood but widely observed phenomena, including (1) increased frequency of large-scale submarine landslides during rapid, late Pleistocene sea-level rise; (2) emplacement of coarse-grained mass transport deposits on deep-sea fans during the early stages of marine transgression; and (3) the unroofing and release of methane gas sequestered in continental slope sediments.

Chestnut astringent skin extract, an alpha-amylase inhibitor, retards carbohydrate absorption in rats and humans.

PubMed

Tsujita, Takahiro; Takaku, Takeshi; Suzuki, Tsuneo

2008-02-01

Inhibitors of carbohydrate-hydrolyzing enzyme play an important role to control postprandial blood glucose levels. In this paper, we investigated the effect of an ethanol extract from chestnut astringent skin (CAS) on alpha-amylase. Chestnut astringent skin extract strongly inhibited human and porcine pancreatic alpha-amylase. We also investigated the effect of CAS extract on carbohydrate absorption in rats and humans. Oral administration of CAS extract to normal rats fed corn starch (2 g/kg body weight), significantly suppressed the increase of blood glucose levels after starch loading in a dose-dependent manner. The effective dose of CAS extract required to achieve 20 and 40% suppression of the rise in blood glucose level was estimated to be 40 and 155 mg/kg body weight, respectively. Chestnut astringent skin extract also suppressed the rise in plasma insulin level and the fall in plasma non-esterified fatty acid level. In the type 2 diabetic rat model, CAS extract significantly suppressed the rise in blood glucose level after starch loading in a dose-dependent manner. Chestnut astringent skin extract also suppressed the rise in plasma glucose level after boiled rice loading in a dose-dependent manner in humans. The amount of CAS extract required to achieve 11 and 23% suppression in the rise in plasma glucose level was 300 and 600 mg/person, respectively. These results suggest that CAS extract retards absorption of carbohydrate and reduces post-prandial hyperglycemia.

Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems

Treesearch

M.S. Ross; J.J. O' Brien; R.G. Ford; K. Zhang; A. Morkill

2009-01-01

Sea-level rise presents an imminent threat to freshwater-dependent ecosystems on small oceanic islands, which often harbor rare and endemic taxa. Conservation of these assemblages is complicated by feedbacks between sea level and recurring pulse disturbances (eg hurricanes, fire). Once sea level reaches a critical level, the transition from a landscape characterized by...

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Uncertainty In Greenhouse Gas Emissions On Carbon Sequestration In Coastal and Freshwater Wetlands of the Mississippi River Delta: A Subsiding Coastline as a Proxy for Future Global Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. R.; DeLaune, R. D.; Roy, E. D.; Corstanje, R.

2014-12-01

The highly visible phenomenon of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana (LA) is examined through the prism of carbon accumulation, wetland loss and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Mississippi River Deltaic region experiences higher relative sea level rise due to coupled subsidence and eustatic sea level rise allowing this region to serve as a proxy for future projected golbal sea level rise. Carbon storage or sequestration in rapidly subsiding LA coastal marsh soils is based on vertical marsh accretion and areal change data. While coastal marshes sequester significant amount of carbon through vertical accretion, large amounts of carbon, previously sequested in the soil profile is lost through annual deterioration of these coastal marshes as well as through GHG emissions. Efforts are underway in Louisiana to access the carbon credit market in order to provide significant funding for coastal restoration projects. However, there is very large uncertainty on GHG emission rates related to both marsh type and temporal (daily and seasonal) effects. Very little data currently exists which addresses this uncertainty which can significantly affect the carbon credit value of a particular wetland system. We provide an analysis of GHG emission rates for coastal freshwater, brackish and and salt marshes compared to the net soil carbon sequestration rate. Results demonstrate that there is very high uncertainty on GHG emissions which can substantially alter the carbon credit value of a particular wetland system.

Predicting impact of SLR on coastal flooding in Banda Aceh coastal defences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al'ala, Musa; Syamsidik, Kato, Shigeru

2017-10-01

Banda Aceh is a low-lying city located at the northern tip of Sumatra Island and situated at the conjuncture of Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea. A Sea Level Rise (SLR) rate at 7 mm/year has been observed around this region. In the next 50 years, this city will face a serious challenge to encounter impacts of the sea level rise, such as frequent coastal floodings. This study is aimed at estimating impacts of the sea level rise induced coastal floodings on several types of coastal structures and city drainage system. Numerical simulations of Delft3D were applied to investigate the influence of the gradual sea level rise in 50 years. The hydrodynamic process of coastal flooding and sediment transport were simulated by Delft3D-Flow. Topography and bathymetry data were collected from GEBCO and updated with the available nautical chart (DISHIDROS, JICA, and field measurements). Hydrodynamic process gains the flow process revealing the level of the sea water intrusion also observed in the model. Main rivers (Krueng Aceh, Krueng Neng, and Alue Naga Flood Canal) and the drainage system were observed to see the tides effects on coastal structures and drainage system. The impact on coastal community focusing on affected area, shoreline retreat, the rate of sea intrusion was analyzed with spatial tools. New coastal line, coastal flooding vulnerable area, and the community susceptibility properties map influenced by 50 years sea level rise is produced. This research found that the city needs to address strategies to anticipate the exacerbating impacts of the sea level rise by managing its coastal spatial planning and modify its drainage system, especially at the drainage outlets.

Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

Effects of Varying CDS Levels and Drying and Cooling Temperatures on Flowability Properties of DDGS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demand for alternative fuels and the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, have triggered the growth of corn-based ethanol production, and this is expected to rise in future years. Transportation of the co-product distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) from this industry occurs under vari...

Learning Sustainability by Developing a Solar Dryer for Microalgae Retrieval

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malheiro, Benedita; Ribeiro, Cristina; Silva, Manuel F.; Caetano, Nídia; Paulo Ferreira,; Guedes, Pedro

2015-01-01

The development of nations depends on energy consumption, which is generally based on fossil fuels. This dependency produces irreversible and dramatic effects on the environment, e.g. large greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn cause global warming and climate changes, responsible for the rise of the sea level, floods, and other extreme weather…

Why Women Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Employment Standards Administration (DOL), Washington, DC. Women's Bureau.

Decisions by individual women to seek employment outside the home are usually based on economic reasons. Most women in the labor force work because their families need the money they can earn--some work to raise family living standards above the low-income or poverty level; others, to help meet rising costs of food and education for their…

A Method of Cross-Level Frequent Pattern Mining for Web-Based Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Yueh-Min; Chen, Juei-Nan; Cheng, Shu-Chen

2007-01-01

Due to the rise of e-Learning, more and more useful learning materials are open to public access. Therefore, an appropriate learning suggestion mechanism is an important tool to enable learners to work more efficiently. A smoother learning process increases the learning effect, avoiding unnecessarily difficult concepts and disorientation during…

Trait-based framework to predict relative vulnerability of near-coastal species and habitats to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Like Icarus, near-coastal species are “flying too close” to the sun, and are being impacted by climate-induced changes in air and ocean temperature, precipitation, salinity, ocean pH, and sea level rise. Sound management requires knowledge of what species and habitats...

Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable flood levels could rise to 20 to 30 cm, but increase significantly from 2100 to 2200 to between 0.5 m and 2.5 m. Aside from the significant increase in flood level, it should be noted that the range over which potential most probable flood levels can vary is significant and defines a tremendous challenge for long-term planning of hazard mitigating measures.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.; Corbett, D. R.; Kemp, A.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2012-12-01

Future inundation of the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon both sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. In this proposal, we will employ new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea-level rise along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts has increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic distribution. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. Here, we produce new high resolution proxy data of sea-level and temperature to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset will span the alternation between the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" and "Little Ice Age". Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from six study areas (Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia and Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, in the future, the resultant storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we couple regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. The products of this proposal will raise the bar for the scientific prediction of region-specific inundation probabilities in terms of coordinated semi-empirical proxy data, hindcast- and forecast-driven sea-level modeling and tropical cyclone forecasting. To optimize transfer of this often complex information for effective adaptive decision-making by managers and planners, we will systematically review >800 adaptation reports and consult early and often with primary endusers to identify their exact needs. We will produce high penetration print and web products for diverse audiences, specific to each region.

Complexities in barrier island response to sea level rise: Insights from numerical model experiments, North Carolina Outer Banks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Laura J.; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Stolper, David

2010-01-01

Using a morphological-behavior model to conduct sensitivity experiments, we investigate the sea level rise response of a complex coastal environment to changes in a variety of factors. Experiments reveal that substrate composition, followed in rank order by substrate slope, sea level rise rate, and sediment supply rate, are the most important factors in determining barrier island response to sea level rise. We find that geomorphic threshold crossing, defined as a change in state (e.g., from landward migrating to drowning) that is irreversible over decadal to millennial time scales, is most likely to occur in muddy coastal systems where the combination of substrate composition, depth-dependent limitations on shoreface response rates, and substrate erodibility may prevent sand from being liberated rapidly enough, or in sufficient quantity, to maintain a subaerial barrier. Analyses indicate that factors affecting sediment availability such as low substrate sand proportions and high sediment loss rates cause a barrier to migrate landward along a trajectory having a lower slope than average barrier island slope, thereby defining an “effective” barrier island slope. Other factors being equal, such barriers will tend to be smaller and associated with a more deeply incised shoreface, thereby requiring less migration per sea level rise increment to liberate sufficient sand to maintain subaerial exposure than larger, less incised barriers. As a result, the evolution of larger/less incised barriers is more likely to be limited by shoreface erosion rates or substrate erodibility making them more prone to disintegration related to increasing sea level rise rates than smaller/more incised barriers. Thus, the small/deeply incised North Carolina barriers are likely to persist in the near term (although their long-term fate is less certain because of the low substrate slopes that will soon be encountered). In aggregate, results point to the importance of system history (e.g., previous slopes, sediment budgets, etc.) in determining migration trajectories and therefore how a barrier island will respond to sea level rise. Although simple analytical calculations may predict barrier response in simplified coastal environments (e.g., constant slope, constant sea level rise rate, etc.), our model experiments demonstrate that morphological-behavior modeling is necessary to provide critical insights regarding changes that may occur in environments having complex geometries, especially when multiple parameters change simultaneously.

Wetland Responses to Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Morris, J. T.

2016-12-01

Coastal regions are vulnerable to flood risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and wetland losses. The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a region in which extreme events are projected to be more intense under climate change and sea level rise scenarios [Wang et al., 2013; Bilskie et al., 2014]. Considering increased frequency and intensity of coastal flooding, wetlands are valuable natural resources that protect shorelines by dissipating waves and storm surges [Costanza et al., 2008]. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the response of salt marsh systems in different estuaries to sea level rise in the NGOM and their effects on storm surges to inform coastal managers to choose effective restoration plans. This research applies the coupled Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016] to study three different estuarine systems in the NGOM. The model incorporates both sea level rise rate and feedbacks between physics and biology by coupling a hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and salt marsh (MEM) model. The results of the model provide tidal hydrodynamics and biomass density change under four sea level rise projections during a 100-year period. The results are used to investigate marsh migration path in the estuarine systems. In addition, this study shows how marsh migration and biomass density change can impact storm surge modeling. The results imply the broader impacts of sea level rise on the estuarine systems in the NGOM. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M. V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S. C. Medeiros (2016), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Costanza, R., O. Pérez-Maqueo, M. L. Martinez, P. Sutton, S. J. Anderson, and K. Mulder (2008), The Value of Coastal Wetlands for Hurricane Protection, AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 37(4). Wang, D., S. C. Hagen, and K. Alizad (2013), Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida, Journal of Hydrology, 480(0), 125-135.

GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert, Karin; Ekstedt, Karin; Jarsjö, Jerker

2016-07-01

Future sea level rise as a consequence of global warming will affect the world's coastal regions. Even though the pace of sea level rise is not clear, the consequences will be severe and global. Commonly the effects of future sea level rise are investigated for relatively vulnerable development countries; however, a whole range of varying regions needs to be considered in order to improve the understanding of global consequences. In this paper we investigate consequences of future sea level rise along the coast of the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, Sweden, with the aim to fill knowledge gaps regarding comparatively well-suited areas in developed countries. We study both the quantity of the loss of features of infrastructure, cultural, and natural value in the case of a 2 m sea level rise of the Baltic Sea and the effects of climate change on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, which indirectly cause saltwater intrusion in wells. We conduct a multi-criteria risk analysis by using lidar data on land elevation and GIS-vulnerability mapping, which gives the application of distance and elevation parameters formerly unimaginable precision. We find that in case of a 2 m sea level rise, 3 % of the land area of Gotland, corresponding to 99 km2, will be inundated. The features most strongly affected are items of touristic or nature value, including camping places, shore meadows, sea stack areas, and endangered plants and species habitats. In total, 231 out of 7354 wells will be directly inundated, and the number of wells in the high-risk zone for saltwater intrusion in wells will increase considerably. Some valuable features will be irreversibly lost due to, for example, inundation of sea stacks and the passing of tipping points for seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers; others might simply be moved further inland, but this requires considerable economic means and prioritization. With nature tourism being one of the main income sources of Gotland, monitoring and planning are required to meet the changes. Seeing Gotland in a global perspective, this island shows that holistic multi-feature studies of future consequences of sea level rise are required to identify overall consequences for individual regions.

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-03-01

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

PubMed Central

Wolff, Claudia; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Muis, Sanne; Lincke, Daniel; Satta, Alessio; Lionello, Piero; Jimenez, Jose A.; Conte, Dario; Hinkel, Jochen

2018-01-01

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications. PMID:29583140

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

2017-06-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR estimates. SLR projections for 2300 yield median responses of 1.02 m for RCP2.6, 1.76 m for RCP4.5, 2.38 m for RCP6.0, and 4.73 m for RCP8.5. The MAGICC sea level model provides a flexible and efficient platform for the analysis of major scenario, model, and climate uncertainties underlying long-term SLR projections. It can be used as a tool to directly investigate the SLR implications of different mitigation pathways and may also serve as input for regional SLR assessments via component-wise sea level pattern scaling.

Simulation of coastal floodings during a typhoon event with the consideration of future sea-level rises.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu-Huei, Jhang; Chih-Chung, Wen; Dong-Jiing, Doong; Cheng-Han, Tsai

2017-04-01

Taiwan is an Island in the western Pacific Ocean and experienced more than 3 typhoons in a year. Typhoons bring intense rainfall, high waves, and storm surges, which often resulted in coastal flooding. The flooding can be aggravated by the sea level rise due to the global warming, which may subject Taiwan's coastal areas to more serious damage in the future than present. The objectives of this study are to investigate the flooding caused by typhoons in the Annan District, Tainan, a city on the southwest coast of Taiwan by numerical simulations, considering the effects of sea-level rises according to the level suggested by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The simulations were carried out by using MIKE21 HD (a hydrodynamic model) and MIKE21 SW (a spectral wave model). In our simulation, we used an intense typhoon, named Soudelor, as our base typhoon, which made its landfall on the east coast of Taiwan in the summer of 2015, traveled through the width of the island, and exited the island to the north of Tainan. The reasons we pick this typhoon are that it passed near our objective area, wind field data for this typhoon are available, and we have well documented coastal wave and water level measurements during the passage of Typhoon Soudelor. We firstly used ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) wind field data to reconstruct typhoon waves and storm surges for this typhoon by using coupled MIKE21 SW and MIKE21 HD in a regional model. The resultant simulated wave height and sea-level height matched satisfactorily with the measured data. The wave height and storm surge calculated by the regional model provided the boundary conditions for our fine-grid domain. Then different sea-level rises suggested by the IPCC were incorporated into the fine-grid model. Since river discharge due to intense rainfall has also to be considered for coastal flooding, our fine-grid models encompass the estuary of River Yanshui, and measured upstream river discharges were used to simulate the interactions among tide, current, and wave near the estuary of Yanshui River. Our preliminary results showed that with only the effect of rainwater discharge, the maximum surface level of the river during the storm near the estuary was 1.4 m, which is not higher than the river embankments. With the storm surge, the river level at the same location was 2.2 m. With the storm surge and sea-level rise, the maximum river levels near the estuary were 3.6 m and 3.9 m for 2050 and 2100 scenarios, respective. These levels were higher than the embankment height of 3 m. This showed that due to higher sea-level, the area near the estuary will be flooded.

Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Bennett, Mark; Shen, Jian

2011-01-01

As a result of climate change and variability, sea level is rising throughout the world, but the rate along the east coast of the United States is higher than the global mean rate. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, Virginia, conducted a study to evaluate the effects of possible future sea-level rise on the salinity front in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay, the York River, and the Chickahominy/James River estuaries. Numerical modeling was used to represent sea-level rise and the resulting hydrologic effects. Estuarine models for the two tributaries were developed and model simulations were made by use of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. HEM-3D was used to simulate tides, tidal currents, and salinity for Chesapeake Bay, the York River and the Chickahominy/James River. The three sea-level rise scenarios that were evaluated showed an increase of 30, 50, and 100 centimeters (cm). Model results for both estuaries indicated that high freshwater river flow was effective in pushing the salinity back toward Chesapeake Bay. Model results indicated that increases in mean salinity will greatly alter the existing water-quality gradients between brackish water and freshwater. This will be particularly important for the freshwater part of the Chickahominy River, where a drinking-water-supply intake for the City of Newport News is located. Significant changes in the salinity gradients for the York River and Chickahominy/James River estuaries were predicted for the three sea-level rise scenarios. When a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario on the York River during a typical year (2005) was used, the model simulation showed a salinity of 15 parts per thousand (ppt) at river kilometer (km) 39. During a dry year (2002), the same salinity (15 ppt) was simulated at river km 45, which means that saltwater was shown to migrate 6 km farther upstream during a dry year than a typical year. The same was true of the Chickahominy River for a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario but to a greater extent; a salinity of 4 ppt was simulated at river km 13 during a typical year and at river km 28 during a dry year, indicating that saltwater migrated 15 km farther upstream during a dry year. Near a drinking-water intake on the Chickahominy River, for a dry year, salinity is predicted to more than double for all three sea-level rise scenarios, relative to a typical year. During a typical year at this location, salinity is predicted to increase to 0.006, 0.07, and more than 2 ppt for the 30-, 50-, and 100-cm rise scenarios, respectively.

Sensitivity of Circulation in the Skagit River Estuary to Sea Level Rise and Future Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Sackmann, Brandon

Future climate simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario (A1B) have shown that the Skagit River flow will be affected, which may lead to modification of the estuarine hydrodynamics. There is considerable uncertainty, however, about the extent and magnitude of resulting change, given accompanying sea level rise and site-specific complexities with multiple interconnected basins. To help quantify the future hydrodynamic response, we developed a three dimensional model of the Skagit River estuary using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model was set up with localized high-resolution grids in Skagit and Padilla Bay sub-basins withinmore » the intermediate-scale FVCOM based model of the Salish Sea (greater Puget Sound and Georgia Basin). Future changes to salinity and annual transport through the basin were examined. The results confirmed the existence of a residual estuarine flow that enters Skagit Bay from Saratoga Passage to the south and exits through Deception Pass. Freshwater from the Skagit River is transported out in the surface layers primarily through Deception Pass and Saratoga Passage, and only a small fraction (≈4%) is transported to Padilla Bay. The moderate future perturbations of A1B emissions, corresponding river flow, and sea level rise of 0.48 m examined here result only in small incremental changes to salinity structure and inter-basin freshwater distribution and transport. An increase in salinity of ~1 ppt in the near-shore environment and a salinity intrusion of approximately 3 km further upstream is predicted in Skagit River, well downstream of the drinking water intakes.« less

Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Guo, Shenglian; Liao, Weilin; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Chen, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.

Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise.

PubMed

Runting, Rebecca K; Wilson, Kerrie A; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2013-02-01

Many studies have explored the benefits of adopting more sophisticated modelling techniques or spatial data in terms of our ability to accurately predict ecosystem responses to global change. However, we currently know little about whether the improved predictions will actually lead to better conservation outcomes once the costs of gaining improved models or data are accounted for. This severely limits our ability to make strategic decisions for adaptation to global pressures, particularly in landscapes subject to dynamic change such as the coastal zone. In such landscapes, the global phenomenon of sea level rise is a critical consideration for preserving biodiversity. Here, we address this issue in the context of making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity with a limited budget. Specifically, we determined the cost-effectiveness of investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models for predicting wetland shifts in a coastal region of South East Queensland, Australia. We evaluated the resulting priority areas for reserve selection to quantify the cost-effectiveness of investment in better quantifying biological and physical processes. We show that, in this case, it is considerably more cost effective to use a process-based model and high-resolution elevation data, even if this requires a substantial proportion of the project budget to be expended (up to 99% in one instance). The less accurate model and data set failed to identify areas of high conservation value, reducing the cost-effectiveness of the resultant conservation plan. This suggests that when developing conservation plans in areas where sea level rise threatens biodiversity, investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models to predict shifts in coastal ecosystems may be highly cost effective. A future research priority is to determine how this cost-effectiveness varies among different regions across the globe. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-10-01

Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

Adaptation or Resistance: a classification of responses to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. A.

2016-02-01

Societal responses to sea level rise and associated coastal change are apparently diverse in nature and motivation. Most are commonly referred to as 'adaptation'. Based on a review of current practice, however, it is argued that many of these responses do not involve adaptation, but are rather resisting change. There are several instances where formerly adaptive initiatives involving human adaptability are being replaced by initiatives that resist change. A classification is presented that recognises a continuum of responses ranging from adaptation to resistance, depending upon the willingness to change human activities to accommodate environmental change. In many cases climate change adaptation resources are being used for projects that are purely resistant and which foreclose future adaptation options. It is argued that a more concise definition of adaptation is needed if coastal management is to move beyond the current position of holding the shoreline, other tah n in a few showcase examples.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

PubMed Central

Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A.; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel E.; Lane, Robert R.; McKee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai C.; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Greg D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William C.; Willis, Jonathan M.; Wilson, K. Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change. PMID:28902904

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Larriviere, Jack C.; Feher, Laura C.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Oster, David A.; Tirpak, John M.; Woodrey, Mark S.; Collini, Renee C.; Baustian, Joseph J.; Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R.; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A.; Donoghue, Joseph F.; Graham, Sean A.; Harper, Jennifer W.; Hester, Mark W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Krauss, Ken W.; Kroes, Daniel; Lane, Robert R.; Mckee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Middleton, Beth A.; Moon, Jena A.; Piazza, Sarai; Rankin, Nicole M.; Sklar, Fred H.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Vervaeke, William; Willis, Jonathan M; Van Wilson, K.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana’s network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Griffith, Kereen T; Larriviere, Jack C; Feher, Laura C; Cahoon, Donald R; Enwright, Nicholas M; Oster, David A; Tirpak, John M; Woodrey, Mark S; Collini, Renee C; Baustian, Joseph J; Breithaupt, Joshua L; Cherry, Julia A; Conrad, Jeremy R; Cormier, Nicole; Coronado-Molina, Carlos A; Donoghue, Joseph F; Graham, Sean A; Harper, Jennifer W; Hester, Mark W; Howard, Rebecca J; Krauss, Ken W; Kroes, Daniel E; Lane, Robert R; McKee, Karen L; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Middleton, Beth A; Moon, Jena A; Piazza, Sarai C; Rankin, Nicole M; Sklar, Fred H; Steyer, Greg D; Swanson, Kathleen M; Swarzenski, Christopher M; Vervaeke, William C; Willis, Jonathan M; Wilson, K Van

2017-01-01

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Sea Level Rise Drove Enhanced Coastal Erosion following the Last Glacial Maximum, Southern California, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharman, G.; Covault, J. A.; Stockli, D. F.; Sickmann, Z.; Malkowski, M. A.; Johnstone, S.

2017-12-01

Seacliff erosion poses a major threat to southern California coastal communities, including the propensity for episodic cliff failure and damage to residential and commercial property. Rising sea level is predicted to accelerate seacliff retreat, yet few constraints exist on how rapid sea level rise influenced coastal erosion rates in pre-modern timescales. Here we look to the geologic record in submarine fans to investigate changes in relative sediment supply from rivers and coastal erosion, the latter including seacliff retreat and bluffland erosion. To understand how sea level rise driven by past global warming impacted coastal erosion rates, we sampled modern rivers of the Peninsular Ranges and latest Pleistocene-Holocene submarine canyon-fan systems in southern California for detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology (1369 analyses from 10 samples). Modern river samples show a systematic north-south change in grain age populations broadly distributed across Cretaceous time (ca. 70-135 Ma) to a predominance of middle Cretaceous grain ages (ca. 95-115 Ma), reflecting variations in the geologic age of units within each river catchment. The Carlsbad and La Jolla submarine canyon-fan systems, deposited during sea level lowstand and highstand, respectively, exhibit detrital zircon age distributions consistent with derivation from upstream rivers, with mixing in the littoral zone. However, a sample from the Oceanside fan, deposited during rapid sea level rise at ca. 13 ka, is dominated by detrital ages that lack a local source in the northern Peninsular Ranges, including latest Cretaceous, late Jurassic, and Proterozoic ages. However, such grain ages are widespread in Paleogene sedimentary rocks that comprise the shelf and coastal area, suggesting increased sediment supply from coastal and shelf erosion. Assuming that the Oceanside sample is representative of sediment production during sea level rise, sediment mixing calculations suggest a one to two orders of magnitude increase in sediment from coastal erosion relative to river-supplied sediment. Our results thus suggest a significant increase in coastal erosion rates following the Last Glacial Maximum, highlighting the risk that future sea level rise poses to coastal communities.

Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

2015-08-24

Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components; utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios; and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. Coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists can benefit from this synthesis of tools and models that have been developed for projecting causes and consequences of sea-level change on the landscape and seascape.

Sea-level variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

2017-04-01

The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with climate model simulations forced with sustained NAO-like heat fluxes. Changes in the wind-driven ocean circulation may also contribute to alongshore sea level variability over the CE. To reveal global mean sea level variability, we combine the salt-marsh data from North American Atlantic coast with tide-gauge records and other high resolution proxies from the northern and southern hemispheres. All reconstructions are from coasts that are tectonically stable and are based on four types of proxy archives (archaeological indicators, coral microatolls, salt marsh sediments and vermetid [mollusk] bioconstructions) that are best capable of capturing submeter-scale RSL changes. The database consists of reconstructions from Australasia (n = 2), Europe (n=5), Greenland (n = 3), North America (n = 6), the northern Gulf of Mexico (n = 3), the Mediterranean (n = 1), South Africa (n = 2), South America (n =2) and the South Pacific (n =3). We apply a noisy-input Gaussian process spatio-temporal modeling framework, which identifies a long-term falling global mean sea-level, interrupted in the middle of the 19th century by an acceleration yielding a 20th century rate of rise extremely likely (probability P = 0:95) faster than any previous century in the CE.

Effect of thyrotropin-releasing factor on serum thyroid-stimulating hormone

PubMed Central

Costom, Bruce H.; Grumbach, Melvin M.; Kaplan, Selna L.

1971-01-01

To test the hypothesis that the primary defect in some patients with idiopathic hypopituitary dwarfism is failure to secrete hypothalamic hypophysiotropic-releasing factors, synthetic thyrotropin-releasing factor (TRF), 500 μg, wa given intravenously, and timed venous samples obtained for determination of the concentration of plasma TSH by radioimmunoassay in three groups of subjects: (a) 11 patients without evidence of endocrine or systemic disease, (group I) (b) 8 with isolated growth hormone deficiency and normal thyroid function, (group II) and (c) 9 patients with idiopathic hypopituitary dwarfism and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) deficiency (group III). The mean fasting plasma TSH value was 4.1 μU/ml in group I, and 3.9 μU/ml in group II; in both groups there was a brisk rise in plasma TSH to peak levels of 12-45 μU/ml at 30-45 min, and a fall toward base line levels at 120 min. All children in group III had basal TSH levels of < 1.5 μU/ml; one failed to respond to TRF; eight exhibited a rise in plasma TSH with peak values comparable with those in groups I and II. In four of eight children in group III who responded to TRF, the TSH response was delayed and the initial rise in plasma TSH was not detectable until 10-60 min. In these four patients, plasma TSH levels continued to rise at 120 min. The mean fasting concentration of plasma thyroxine iodide (T4) in subjects with normal thyroid function (groups I and II) was 5.6 μg/100 ml, and the mean plasma T4 level at 120 min was 6.6 μg/100 ml. This difference between fasting and postTRF plasma T4 was significant (P < 0.001) by paired analysis. Mean fasting plasma T4 concentration in group III patients was 1.3 μg/100 ml; after TRF a significant rise in T4 concentration was not detected in this group. The results indicate that TRF test is useful in distinguishing between primary hypothalamic and pituitary forms of TSH deficiency. In light of the evidence of TRF deficiency in eight of nine patients with idiopathic hypopituitary dwarfism, it seems likely that in these patients, other pituitary hormone deficiencies may be attributable to deficiency of their respective releasing factors. Images PMID:4330007

Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hummel, Michelle A.; Berry, Matthew S.; Stacey, Mark T.

2018-04-01

As sea levels rise, coastal communities will experience more frequent and persistent nuisance flooding, and some low-lying areas may be permanently inundated. Critical components of lifeline infrastructure networks in these areas are also at risk of flooding, which could cause significant service disruptions that extend beyond the flooded zone. Thus, identifying critical infrastructure components that are exposed to sea level rise is an important first step in developing targeted investment in protective actions and enhancing the overall resilience of coastal communities. Wastewater treatment plants are typically located at low elevations near the coastline to minimize the cost of collecting consumed water and discharging treated effluent, which makes them particularly susceptible to coastal flooding. For this analysis, we used geographic information systems to assess the exposure of wastewater infrastructure to various sea level rise projections at the national level. We then estimated the number of people who would lose wastewater services, which could be more than five times as high as previous predictions of the number of people at risk of direct flooding due to sea level rise. We also performed a regional comparison of wastewater exposure to marine and groundwater flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area. Overall, this analysis highlights the widespread exposure of wastewater infrastructure in the United States and demonstrates that local disruptions to infrastructure networks may have far-ranging impacts on areas that do not experience direct flooding.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Gingerich, Stephen B.; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A.; McCall, Robert T.

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding.

PubMed

Storlazzi, Curt D; Gingerich, Stephen B; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia M; Swarzenski, Peter W; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I; Field, Donald W; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A; McCall, Robert

2018-04-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states. PMID:29707635

Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate.

PubMed

Mills, Morena; Nicol, Sam; Wells, Jessie A; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J M; Runge, Michael C; Possingham, Hugh P; Madden, Eve McDonald

2014-06-01

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Destabilisation of an Arctic ice cap triggered by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer-melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Kääb, A.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2014-05-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the Polar Regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic aperture radar based velocity maps from the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, that demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of the ice cap's largest drainage basin, Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. After accounting for the terminus advance, the related sea-level rise contribution of 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a-1 matches the recent annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago. Our study highlights the importance of dynamic glacier wastage and illuminates mechanisms that may trigger a sustained increase in dynamic glacier wastage or the disintegration of ice-sheets in response to climate warming, which is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

Do pregnancy characteristics contribute to rising childhood cancer incidence rates in the United States?

PubMed

Kehm, Rebecca D; Osypuk, Theresa L; Poynter, Jenny N; Vock, David M; Spector, Logan G

2018-03-01

Since 1975, childhood cancer incidence rates have gradually increased in the United States; however, few studies have conducted analyses across time to unpack this temporal rise. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that increasing cancer incidence rates are due to secular trends in pregnancy characteristics that are established risk factors for childhood cancer incidence including older maternal age, higher birthweight, and lower birth order. We also considered temporal trends in sociodemographic characteristics including race/ethnicity and poverty. We conducted a time series county-level ecologic analysis using linked population-based data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries (1975-2013), birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics (1970-2013), and sociodemographic data from the US Census (1970-2010). We estimated unadjusted and adjusted average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in incidence of combined (all diagnoses) and individual types of cancer among children, ages 0-4 years, from Poisson mixed models. There was a statistically significant unadjusted temporal rise in incidence of combined childhood cancers (AAPC = 0.71%; 95% CI = 0.55-0.86), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (0.78%; 0.49-1.07), acute myeloid leukemia (1.86%; 1.13-2.59), central nervous system tumors (1.31%; 0.94-1.67), and hepatoblastoma (2.70%; 1.68-3.72). Adjustment for county-level maternal age reduced estimated AAPCs between 8% (hepatoblastoma) and 55% (combined). However, adjustment for other county characteristics did not attenuate AAPCs, and AAPCs remained significantly above 0% in models fully adjusted for county-level characteristics. Although rising maternal age may account for some of the increase in childhood cancer incidence over time, other factors, not considered in this analysis, may also contribute to temporal trends. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on the depth to saturated sediments of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; McCobb, Timothy D.; Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-05-25

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Association to Preserve Cape Cod, the Cape Cod Commission, and the Massachusetts Environmental Trust, began an evaluation of the potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitudes and depths to water on central and western Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures arising, in part, from the release of greenhouse gases likely will result in higher sea levels globally. Increasing water table altitudes in shallow, unconfined coastal aquifer systems could adversely affect infrastructure—roads, utilities, basements, and septic systems—particularly in low-lying urbanized areas. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses on Cape Cod are the largest and most populous of the six flow lenses that comprise the region’s aquifer system, the Cape Cod glacial aquifer. The potential effects of sea-level rise on water table altitude and depths to water were evaluated by use of numerical models of the region. The Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses have a number of large surface water drainages that receive a substantial amount of groundwater discharge, 47 and 29 percent of the total, respectively. The median increase in the simulated water table altitude following a 6-foot sea-level rise across both flow lenses was 2.11 feet, or 35 percent when expressed as a percentage of the total sea-level rise. The response is nearly the same as the sea-level rise (6 feet) in some coastal areas and less than 0.1 foot near some large inland streams. Median water table responses differ substantially between the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses—at 29 and 49 percent, respectively—because larger surface water discharge on the Sagamore flow lens results in increased dampening of the water table response than in the Monomoy flow lens. Surface waters dampen water table altitude increases because streams are fixed-altitude boundaries that cause hydraulic gradients and streamflow to increase as sea-level rises, partially fixing the local water table altitude.The region has a generally thick vadose zone with a mean of about 38 feet; areas with depths to water of 5 feet or less, as estimated from light detection and ranging (lidar) data from 2011 and simulated water table altitudes, currently [2011] occur over about 24.9 square miles, or about 8.4 percent of the total land area of the Sagamore and Monomoy flow lenses, generally in low-lying coastal areas and inland near ponds and streams. Excluding potentially submerged areas, an additional 4.5, 9.8, and 15.9 square miles would have shallow depths to water (5 feet or less) for projected sea-level rises of 2, 4, and 6 feet above levels in 2011. The additional areas with shallow depths to water generally occur in the same areas as the areas with current [2011] depths to water of 5 feet or less: low-lying coastal areas and near inland surface water features. Additional areas with shallow depths to water for the largest sea-level rise prediction (6 feet) account for about 5.7 percent of the total land area, excluding areas likely to be inundated by seawater. The numerous surface water drainages will dampen the response of the water table to sea-level rise. This dampening, combined with the region’s thick vadose zone, likely will mitigate the potential for groundwater inundation in most areas. The potential does exist for groundwater inundation in some areas, but the effects of sea-level rise on depths to water and infrastructure likely will not be substantial on a regional level.

Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

2016-04-01

We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

Effect of σ2 on All Aspects of Failure in Rocks from Granite to Sandstone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haimson, B. C.; Ma, X.

2014-12-01

We have studied the effect of σ2 on failure characteristics of two crystalline and three clastic rocks subjected to true triaxial stresses. Common to all rocks tested is the rise in both strain localization onset and σ1 at failure (σ1,peak) for a given σ3, as σ2 is elevated beyond its base level (σ2 = σ3). σ1,peak reaches a maximum at some level of σ2, beyond which it gradually declines, approaching its base magnitude when σ2 nears its own maximum. Failure-plane angle with respect to σ1 for a given σ3 also increases with σ2, at least until the maximum σ1,peak is reached. Westerly granite (Haimson and Chang, IJRMMS, 2000) and KTB amphibolite (Chang and Haimson, JGR, 2000), exhibited a dramatic σ2 effect: at low σ3 (20-30 MPa), higher σ2 lifted σ1,peak by up to 50% over its base level. At high σ3, the increase in σ1,peak was reduced, but even at σ3 = 100 MPa, maximum σ1,peak in both rocks was over 20% higher than its base level. Failure mode remained brittle throughout the stress range tested, but the onset of dilatancy rose with σ2, as did the failure-plane (shear-band) angle (by up to 20°). A gentler effect of σ2 on σ1, peak and failure-plane angle was observed in the clastics, and that effect subsided as porosity increased. In low porosity (φ = 7%) TCDP siltstone (Oku, et al, GRL, 2007), the maximum σ1,peak at σ3 = 25 MPa was about 30% larger than at σ2 = σ3 level, and only 12.5% larger at σ3 = 100 MPa. Failure mode stayed brittle throughout, but shear-band angle increase with σ2 was limited to about 10°, irrespective of σ3 level. An even smaller σ2 effect was observed in Coconino sandstone (φ = 17%) (Ma, PhD thesis, 2014). σ1,peak reached a maximum of about 10% higher than at σ2 = σ3 level; failure-plane angle rise with σ2 was less than 10°. The weakest σ2 effect was found in the high porosity (φ= 25%) Bentheim sandstone (Ma, PhD thesis, 2014). Here σ1, peak reached a maximum of well under 10% higher than its base magnitude, regardless of σ3 level; average failure-plane angle rise with σ2 was below 10°. Failure at σ3 = 150 MPa was along a compaction band(s) normal to σ1, regardless of σ2. Both Coconino and Bentheim underwent dilatant failure at low σ3, shifting to compactive failure at high σ3 levels. But σ2 also affected the failure mode: compactive failure at σ2 = σ3 gradually reverted to a dilatant mode as σ2 was raised.

Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 1(low vulnerability) and 2 (moderate vulnerability), respectively. In 2050s, 88.8 %, 10.7 % and 0.5 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In 2100s, 85.7 %, 7.3 % , 2.0 % and 5.0 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3(high vulnerability), respectively. At the A1F1 scenario of sea level rise rate of 0.59 cm/a, 91.0 %, 8.7 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands in 2030s were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2 , respectively. In 2050s, 86.9 %, 10.5 % , 2.4 % and 0.2 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In 2100s, 82.4 %, 7.1 % , 2.4 % and 8.1 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The spatiotemporal occurrences of vulnerability were mainly where the subsidence rate is relatively higher and the sedimentation rate is lower or even negative. The results from this study indicated that the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, reducing sediment discharge could give rise to the high risk of a considerable decrease or even habitat loss of coastal wetland in the Yangtze Estuary (particularly in 2050s and 2100s). Therefore some mitigation measures should be considered in the future, including management of sedimentation, reducing land subsidence, recreating and extending wetland habitat, and controlling reclamation.

Assessment of glycemic potential ofMusa paradisiaca stem juice.

PubMed

Singh, Santosh Kumar; Kesari, Achyut Narayan; Rai, Prashant Kumar; Watal, Geeta

2007-09-01

The present study reveals the effect of Musa paradisiaca stem juice on blood glucose level (BGL) of normal & diabetic rats. The dose of 500 mg/kg bodyweight produces a significant rise of 28.3% in blood glucose level after 6h of oral administration in normal rats. Whereas, in sub diabetic rats the same dose produces a rise of 16.4% in blood glucose levels within 1h during glucose tolerance test (GTT) and a rise of 16% after 4 h in fasting blood glucose levels of severe diabetic cases. These results were unexpected and important to report as other species of Musa like Musa sapientum has been reported for its hypoglycemic effect.

Using a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise is an ongoing phenomenon that is expected to continue and is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments and infrastructure during the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, there is a need to assemble relevant datasets and to develop modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate the likelihood of particular sea-level rise impacts, such as coastal erosion, and to inform coastal management decisions with this information. This report builds on previous work that compiled oceanographic and geomorphic data as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S. Atlantic coast, and developed a Bayesian Network to predict shoreline-change rates based on sea-level rise plus variables that describe the hydrodynamic and geologic setting. This report extends the previous analysis to include the Gulf and Pacific coasts of the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii, which required using methods applied to the USGS CVI dataset to extract data for these regions. The Bayesian Network converts inputs that include observations of local rates of relative sea-level change, mean wave height, mean tide range, a geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and observed shoreline-change rates to calculate the probability of the shoreline-erosion rate exceeding a threshold level of 1 meter per year for the coasts of the United States. The calculated probabilities were compared to the historical observations of shoreline change to evaluate the hindcast success rate of the most likely probability of shoreline change. Highest accuracy was determined for the coast of Hawaii (98 percent success rate) and lowest accuracy was determined for the Gulf of Mexico (34 percent success rate). The minimum success rate rose to nearly 80 percent (Atlantic and Gulf coasts) when success included shoreline-change outcomes that were adjacent to the most likely outcome. Additionally, the probabilistic approach determines the confidence in calculated outcomes as the probability of the most likely outcome. The confidence was highest along the Pacific coast and it was lowest along the Alaskan coast.

Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballu, Valérie; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Siméoni, Patricia; Crawford, Wayne C.; Calmant, Stephane; Boré, Jean-Michel; Kanas, Tony; Pelletier, Bernard

2011-08-01

Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world's first climate change "refugees." We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.

Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu).

PubMed

Ballu, Valérie; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Siméoni, Patricia; Crawford, Wayne C; Calmant, Stephane; Boré, Jean-Michel; Kanas, Tony; Pelletier, Bernard

2011-08-09

Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world's first climate change "refugees." We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.

Emerging Web Technologies in Higher Education: A Case of Incorporating Blogs, Podcasts and Social Bookmarks in a Web Programming Course Based on Students' Learning Styles and Technology Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saeed, Nauman; Yang, Yun; Sinnappan, Suku

2009-01-01

The adoption level of emerging web technologies is on the rise in academic settings. However, a major obstacle in the practice of web-based instruction is the limited understanding of learners' characteristics and perceptions about technology use. Thus there is a need to understand the relationship between students' learning styles and their…

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Yang, Shili; Moore, John C; Shi, Peijun; Cui, Xuefeng; Duan, Qingyun; Xu, Bing; Dai, Yongjiu; Yuan, Wenping; Wei, Xin; Yang, Zhipeng; Wen, Tijian; Teng, Fei; Gao, Yun; Chou, Jieming; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Jiang, Yundi; Gao, Xuejie; Wang, Kaicun; Zheng, Xiaogu; Ren, Fumin; Lv, Shihua; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Bin; Luo, Yong; Li, Weijing; Ji, Duoying; Feng, Jinming; Wu, Qizhong; Cheng, Huaqiong; He, Jiankun; Fu, Congbin; Ye, Duzheng; Xu, Guanhua; Dong, Wenjie

2012-08-07

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80%, developing countries about 20-40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67%, BNU-ESM 35-65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of thefederally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modelling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model’s dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the range of physical conditions included in model development was varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modelling impacts of sea-level rise- or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.

Rhode Island Salt Marshes: Elevation Capital and Resilience to Sea Level Rise

EPA Science Inventory

Tidal salt marsh is especially sensitive to deterioration due to the effects of accelerated sea level rise when combined with other anthropogenically linked stressors, including crab herbivory, changes in tidal hydrology, nutrient loading, dam construction, changes in temperature...

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter-model uncertainties for extreme sea-levels at large spatial scales and compare them to the uncertainties in mean sea level projections.

Holocene sea-level changes in King George Island, West Antarctica, by virtue of geomorphological coastal evidences and diatom assemblages of sediment sections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poleshchuk, Ksenia; Verkulich, Sergey; Pushina, Zina; Jozhikov, Ilya

2015-04-01

A new curve of relative sea-level change is presented for the Fildes peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctic. This work is based on renewed paleogeography data, including coastal geomorphological evidence, diatom assemblages of lakes bottom sediments and radiocarbon datings of organics. The new data were obtained in several sections of quaternary sediments and groups of terraces, and allows us to expand and improve relevant conception about relative sea level changes in the King George Island region. The new radiocarbon datings of organics (mosses and shells) allows reconstructing Holocene conditions that maintain and cause the sea-level changes. Sea diatom assemblages of Dlinnoye lake bottom sediment core (that complies period about 8000 years B.P.) mark altitude of marine water penetrated into the lake. The altitudes of shell remains, which have certain life habits and expect specific salinity and depth conditions, coupled with their absolute datings, indicate the probable elevation of the past sea level. The Mid-Holocene marine transgression reached its maximum level of 18-20 m by 5760 years B.P. The transgression influenced the deglaciation of the Fildes peninsula and environment conditions integrally. The ratio of glacio-isostatic adjustment velocity and Holocene transgression leaded to the decrease of relative sea level during the Late Holocene excluding the short period of rising between 2000 and 1300 years B.P. Comparing this data with the curve for Bunger oasis, East Antarctica, introduced earlier gives an interesting result. Despite the maximum altitudes of relative sea-level rise in King George region were higher and occurred later than in Bunger oasis region, the short-term period of Late Holocene sea-level rising contemporizes. Besides that, this work allow to realize a correlation between regions of Antarctica and adjacent territory. That, in turn, lets answer the question of tectonic and eustatic factors ratio and their contribution to the Holocene transgression in different regions.

Inventory and protection of salt marshes from risks of sea-level rise at Acadia National Park, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2011-01-01

Recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) climate studies in the northeastern United States have shown substantial evidence of climate-related changes during the last 100 years, including earlier snowmelt runoff, decreasing occurrence of river ice, and decreasing winter snowpack. These studies related to climate change are being expanded to include investigation of coastal wetlands that might be at risk from sealevel rise. Coastal wetlands, particularly salt marshes, are important ecosystems that provide wildlife nursery and breeding habitat, migratory bird habitat, water quality enhancement, and shoreline erosion control. The USGS is investigating salt marshes in Acadia National Park with the goal of determining which salt marshes may be threatened by sea-level rise and which salt marshes may be able to adapt to sea-level rise by migrating into adjacent low-lying lands.

Studying the impact of climate change on flooding in large river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-04-01

Assessing the potential impact of global climate change on hydrological extremes becomes crucial for regions such as Bangladesh, where a high population density results in a large exposure to risks associated with extreme flooding. In addition, low-lying countries such as Bangladesh are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and its influence on present-day flood characteristics. By combining the impact of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths, we attempt to analyze the development of flood characteristics such as frequency and magnitude in large river basins. Since flood duration is also of great importance to people exposed to flooding, the development of the number of days with extreme flooding is evaluated for possible trends in the future. Data used includes historical observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre, while recently released model output for upper catchment precipitation and annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise is taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members, as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the reference concentration pathway scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. A peak-over-threshold approach is used to quantify the expected future changes in flood return levels, where discharge exceedances over a certain threshold are fit to a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Return levels are compared from both 20th century and future model simulations for time slices at 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. It can be seen that return periods of flood events decrease as the 21st century progresses in all RCP scenarios, with this shift most pronounced in RCP 8.5. The evaluation of flood duration, or the number of days with discharges above a certain threshold, yields an increase. While the number of days with flooding increases in all RCP scenarios, with the largest increase seen at the end of the 21st century, this increase is only statistically significant for RCP 8.5. Finally, we study how sea-level rise governs the flooding behavior further upstream by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the backwater effect of sea-level rise. Sea-level rise anomalies for the 21st century are taken from CCSM4 model output at each of the river mouths. Judging from our work, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing flooding in the respective river basins. Impact of sea-level rise on changes in return levels will be investigated further by using extreme-value theory to calculate how the tails of the current river discharge distribution will be shifted by changing climate.

Increasing Resilience Through Engagement In Sea Level Rise Community Science Initiatives.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chilton, L. A.; Rindge, H.

2017-12-01

Science literate and engaged members of the public, including students, are critical to building climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant facilitates programs that work to build and strengthen these connections. The Urban Tides Community Science Initiative (Urban Tides) and the Youth Exploring Sea Level Rise Science Program (YESS) engage communities across the boundaries of public engagement, K-12 education, and informal education. YESS is an experiential sea level rise education program that combines classroom learning, field investigations and public presentations. Students explore sea level rise using a new curricula, collect their own data on sea level rise, develop communication products, and present their findings to city governments, researchers, and others. Urban Tides engages community members, informal education centers, K-12 students, and local government leaders in a citizen science program photo- documenting extreme high tides, erosion and coastal flooding in Southern California. Images provide critical information to help calibrate scientific models used to identify locations vulnerable to damage from future sea level rise. These tools and information enable community leaders and local governments to set priorities, guidelines, and update policies as they plan strategies that will help the region adapt. The program includes a mobile app for data collection, an open database to view photos, a lesson plan, and community beach walks. Urban Tides has led to an increase in data and data-gathering capacity for regional scientists, an increase in public participation in science, and an increase in ocean and climate literacy among initiative participants. Both of these programs bring informed and diverse voices into the discussion of how to adapt and build climate resilient communities. USC Sea Grant will share impacts and lessons learned from these two unique programs.

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and inmuch of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mmyr -1 due to regional subsidence.Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, andmay exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidalmore » freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mmyr -1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mmyr -1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among themarshes studied, and ranged from-9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mmyr -1. Surface accretion of depositedmineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mmyr -1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. In conclusion, previous studies have focused on surface elevation change inmarshes of uniformsalinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies inmarshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.« less

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

PubMed Central

Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.

2016-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries. PMID:27467784

Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

DOE PAGES

Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S.; ...

2016-07-28

Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and inmuch of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mmyr -1 due to regional subsidence.Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, andmay exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidalmore » freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mmyr -1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mmyr -1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among themarshes studied, and ranged from-9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mmyr -1. Surface accretion of depositedmineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mmyr -1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. In conclusion, previous studies have focused on surface elevation change inmarshes of uniformsalinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies inmarshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.« less

Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, C.D.; Elias, E.; Field, M.E.; Presto, M.K.

2011-01-01

Most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100; it is not clear, however, how fluid flow and sediment dynamics on exposed fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment-transport numerical modeling is consistent with recent published results that suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a 1-2 m deep exposed fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and setup, further elevating water depths on the reef flat. Larger waves would generate higher near-bed shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and the quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from adjacent coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop with increasing water depth, increasing the alongshore and offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest. Sediment residence time on the fringing reef flat was modeled to decrease exponentially with increasing sea-level rise as the magnitude of sea-level rise approached the mean water depth over the reef flat. The model results presented here suggest that a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level will likely increase coastal erosion, mixing and circulation, the amount of sediment resuspended, and the duration of high turbidity on exposed reef flats, resulting in decreased light availability for photosynthesis, increased sediment-induced stress on the reef ecosystem, and potentially affecting a number of other ecological processes.

Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

2015-12-01

NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehlert, Dana; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Curt; Clark, Inga; Guntenspergen, Glenn; Cahoon, Don; Caruso, Vincent; Hupp, Cliff; Yanosky, Tom

2004-01-01

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

Understanding Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise Enhanced Inundation Using Real-Time Stage Monitoring, LiDAR, and Monte Carlo Simulation in Everglades National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, H.; Zhang, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands are one of the most productive ecological systems in the world, providing critical habitat area and valuable ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. However, due to their location in low lying areas, coastal wetlands are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR). Everglades National Park (ENP) encompasses the southern-most portion of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, and is the largest subtropical wetland in the USA. Water depths have shown to have a significant relationship to vegetation community composition and organization while also playing a crucial role in vegetation health throughout the Everglades. Live plants play a vital role in maintaining soil structure (i.e. elevation), and decreases in vegetation health can cause peat collapse or wetland loss resulting in dramatic habitat, organic soil, and elevation loss posing concerns for Everglades management and restoration. One suspected mechanism for peat collapse is enhanced inundation due to SLR, thus mapping and modeling water depths is a critical component to understanding the potential impacts of future SLR. Previous research in the Everglades focused on a conventional Water Depth Model (WDM) approach where a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is subtracted from a Water Table Elevation Model (WTEM). In this study, the conventional WDM approach is extended to a more rigorous WDM technique so that the accuracy and precision of the underlying data may be considered. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our SLR depth model using our Random Forest-based LiDAR DEM, Empirical Bayesian Kriging-based WTEMs, uncertainties in vertical datums, soil accretion projections, and regional sea-level rise projections. Water depth maps were produced for the wet and dry seasons in April and October, which successfully revealed the potential spatial and temporal water depth variations due to future SLR. It is concluded that a more rigorous WDM technique helps to increase the integrity of derived products used to support and guide coastal restoration managers and planners under the challenge of rising seas.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melet, Angélique; Meyssignac, Benoit; Almar, Rafael; Le Cozannet, Gonéri

2018-03-01

Coastal communities are threatened by sea-level changes operating at various spatial scales; global to regional variations are associated with glacier and ice sheet loss and ocean thermal expansion, while smaller coastal-scale variations are also related to atmospheric surges, tides and waves. Here, using 23 years (1993-2015) of global coastal sea-level observations, we examine the contribution of these latter processes to long-term sea-level rise, which, to date, have been relatively less explored. It is found that wave contributions can strongly dampen or enhance the effects of thermal expansion and land ice loss on coastal water-level changes at interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Along the US West Coast, for example, negative wave-induced trends dominate, leading to negative net water-level trends. Accurate estimates of past, present and future coastal sea-level rise therefore need to consider low-frequency contributions of wave set-up and swash.

Remote sensing and GIS analysis for demarcation of coastal hazard line along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.

2016-10-01

Coastal regions, especially river deltas are highly resourceful and hence densely populated; but these extremely low-lying lands are vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming threatening the life and property in these regions. Recent IPCC (2013) predictions of 26-82cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative as subsequent investigations such as by Met Office, UK indicated a vertical rise of about 190cm, which would displace 10% of the world's population living within 10 meters above the sea level. Therefore, predictive models showing the hazard line are necessary for efficient coastal zone management. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of such predictive models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study is an attempt to estimate the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. Detailed maps showing various coastal landforms in the K-G delta region were prepared using the IRS-P6 LISS 3 images. The rate of shoreline shift during a 31-year period along different sectors of the 330km long K-G delta coast was estimated using Landsat-2 and IRS-P6 LISS 3 images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, End Point Rate (EPR), Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE) and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) were calculated, using a GIS-based Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). The results showed that the shoreline migrated landward up to a maximum distance of 3.13km resulting in a net loss of about 42.10km2 area during this 31-year period. Further, considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line is predicted for the area, which also indicated a net erosion of about 57.68km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

Emerging and Submerging Shorelines: Impacts of Physical Change on Bioband Length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruger, L. E.; Johnson, A. C.; Gregovich, D.; Buma, B.; Noel, J.

2017-12-01

We approximated shifts in coastal benthic species for shoreline length units undergoing both sea level rise and relative sea level lowering (often post-glacial, termed isostatic rebound) where subsistence-based, southeast Alaska Natives reside. From six community centers, we examined 30 km radii shoreline reaches by merging relevant portions of the NOAA ShoreZone database with near shore bathymetry and measures of mean global sea level rise with local global positioning system information (GIS) of tectonic shift and isostatic rebound. For our analysis, we estimated change for 9,868 assessed shoreline length units having uniform substrate and biologic type over a 100-yr time span (2008-2108) using geometric analysis of shoreline attributes. For each shoreline length unit we assessed relationships among substrate, slope, exposure, and presence of five benthic species including eel grass (Zostera marina), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), butter clams (Saxidomus gigantean), bull kelp (Nereocytis leutkeana), and foliose red algae including ribbon kelp (Palmaria sp.). Our research indicates that both emergence, up to 1.8 m, and submergence, up 0.2 m, of the land will result in disportionately larger shoreline length segment alterations for habitats in protected low-slope gradient bays and estuaries (dominated by eelgrass and butter clam habitats) with less change for rocky steep-gradient exposed penninsulas (red algae and canopy kelp). This trend, holding true regardless of isostatic rebound, tectonic shift or sea level rise rate, highlights the importance of initial geomorphology-based assessments serving to improve bio-physical, chemical, and socially-related coastal research. Where shorelines are emerging 30% decreases in estuary lengths are predicted, but where shorelines are submerging up to 3% increases in estuaries are expected. Our research results are consistent with anthropology studies assessing past coastal change. Coastal change, influencing subsistance foods, salmon rearing areas, ocean acidification rate, and ocean carbon sequestration rate, have relevance to community resilience.

2014 ISS Potable Water Characterization and Continuation of the DMSD Chronicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Straub, John E., II; Plumlee, Debrah K.; Mudgett, Paul D.

2015-01-01

During 2014 the crews from Expeditions 38-41 were resident on the International Space Station (ISS). In addition to the U.S. potable water reclaimed from humidity condensate and urine, the other water supplies available for their use were Russian potable water reclaimed from condensate and Russian ground-supplied potable water. Beginning in June of 2014, and for the fourth time since 2010, the product water from the U.S. Water Processor Assembly (WPA) experienced a rise in the total organic carbon (TOC) level due to organic contaminants breaking through the water treatment process. Results from ground analyses of ISS archival water samples returned on Soyuz 38 confirmed that dimethylsilanediol (DMSD) was once again the contaminant responsible for the rise. With this confirmation in hand and based upon the low toxicity of DMSD, a waiver was approved to allow the crew to continue to consume the water after the TOC level exceeded the U.S. Segment limit of 3 mg/L. Several weeks after the WPA multifiltration beds were replaced, as anticipated based upon experience from previous rises, the TOC levels returned to below the method detection limit of the onboard TOC analyzer (TOCA). This paper presents and discusses the chemical analysis results for the ISS archival potable water samples returned in 2014 and analyzed by the Johnson Space Center's Toxicology and Environmental Chemistry laboratory. These results showed compliance with ISS potable water quality standards and indicated that the potable water supplies were acceptable for crew consumption. Although DMSD levels were at times elevated they remained well below the 35 mg/L health limit, so continued consumption of the U.S potable water was considered a low risk to crew health and safety. Excellent agreement between inflight and archival sample TOC data confirmed that the TOCA performed optimally and it continued to serve as a vital tool for monitoring organic breakthrough and planning remediation action.

2014 ISS Potable Water Characterization and Continuation of the Dimethylsilanediol Chronicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Straub, John E., II; Plumlee, Debrah K.; Mudgett, Paul D.

2015-01-01

During 2014 the crews from Expeditions 38-41 were in residence on the International Space Station (ISS). In addition to the U.S. potable water reclaimed from humidity condensate and urine, the other water supplies available for their use were Russian potable water reclaimed from condensate and Russian ground-supplied potable water. Beginning in June of 2014 and for the fourth time since 2010, the product water from the U.S. water processor assembly (WPA) experienced a rise in the total organic carbon (TOC) level due to organic contaminants breaking through the water treatment process. Results from ground analyses of ISS archival water samples returned on Soyuz 38 confirmed that dimethylsilanediol was once again the contaminant responsible for the rise. With this confirmation in hand and based upon the low toxicity of dimethylsilanediol, a waiver was approved to allow the crew to continue to consume the water after the TOC level exceeded the U.S. Segment limit of 3 mg/L. Several weeks after the WPA multifiltration beds were replaced, the TOC levels returned to below the method detection limit of the onboard TOC analyzer (TOCA) as anticipated based upon experience from previous rises. This paper presents and discusses the chemical analysis results for the ISS archival potable-water samples returned in 2014 and analyzed by the Johnson Space Center's Toxicology and Environmental Chemistry laboratory. These results showed compliance with ISS potable water quality standards and indicated that the potable-water supplies were acceptable for crew consumption. Although dimethylsilanediol levels were at times elevated, they remained well below the 35 mg/L health limit so the continued consumption of the U.S. potable water was considered a low risk to crew health and safety. Excellent agreement between in-flight and archival sample TOC data confirmed that the TOCA performed optimally and continued to serve as a vital tool for monitoring organic breakthrough and planning remediation action.

Potentiometric surfaces and water-level trends in the Cockfield (upper Claiborne) aquifer in southern Arkansas and the Wilcox (lower Wilcox) aquifer of northeastern and southern Arkansas, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2015-01-01

Linear regression analysis of long-term hydrographs was used to determine the mean annual water-level rise and decline in the Wilcox aquifer in the northeastern and southern areas of Arkansas. In the northeastern area, the mean annual water level declined in all seven counties. The mean annual declines ranged from -0.55 ft/yr in Craighead County to -1.46 ft/yr in St. Francis County. In the southern area, the annual rise and decline calculations for wells with over 20 years of records indicate rising and declining water levels in Clark, Hot Spring, and Nevada Counties. The mean annual water level declined in all counties except Hot Spring County.

Projected Sea Level Rise and Changes in Extreme Storm Surge and Wave Events During the 21st Century in the Region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, M. D.; Cannaby, H.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.

2016-02-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, H.; Palmer, M. D.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.; Calvert, D.; Krijnen, J.; Wood, R.; Tinker, J.; Bunney, C.; Harle, J.; Saulter, A.; O'Neill, C.; Bellingham, C.; Lowe, J.

2015-12-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Estuarine wetland evolution including sea-level rise and infrastructure effects.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Jose Fernando; Trivisonno, Franco; Rojas, Steven Sandi; Riccardi, Gerardo; Stenta, Hernan; Saco, Patricia Mabel

2015-04-01

Estuarine wetlands are an extremely valuable resource in terms of biotic diversity, flood attenuation, storm surge protection, groundwater recharge, filtering of surface flows and carbon sequestration. On a large scale the survival of these systems depends on the slope of the land and a balance between the rates of accretion and sea-level rise, but local man-made flow disturbances can have comparable effects. Climate change predictions for most of Australia include an accelerated sea level rise, which may challenge the survival of estuarine wetlands. Furthermore, coastal infrastructure poses an additional constraint on the adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Numerical models are increasingly being used to assess wetland dynamics and to help manage some of these situations. We present results of a wetland evolution model that is based on computed values of hydroperiod and tidal range that drive vegetation preference. Our first application simulates the long term evolution of an Australian wetland heavily constricted by infrastructure that is undergoing the effects of predicted accelerated sea level rise. The wetland presents a vegetation zonation sequence mudflats - mangrove - saltmarsh from the seaward margin and up the topographic gradient but is also affected by compartmentalization due to internal road embankments and culverts that effectively attenuates tidal input to the upstream compartments. For this reason, the evolution model includes a 2D hydrodynamic module which is able to handle man-made flow controls and spatially varying roughness. It continually simulates tidal inputs into the wetland and computes annual values of hydroperiod and tidal range to update vegetation distribution based on preference to hydrodynamic conditions of the different vegetation types. It also computes soil accretion rates and updates roughness coefficient values according to evolving vegetation types. In order to explore in more detail the magnitude of flow attenuation due to roughness and its effects on the computation of tidal range and hydroperiod, we performed numerical experiments simulating floodplain flow on the side of a tidal creek using different roughness values. Even though the values of roughness that produce appreciable changes in hydroperiod and tidal range are relatively high, they are within the range expected for some of the wetland vegetation. Both applications of the model show that flow attenuation can play a major role in wetland hydrodynamics and that its effects must be considered when predicting wetland evolution under climate change scenarios, particularly in situations where existing infrastructure affects the flow.

Chapter 5: Connections Connections in cross-laminated timber buildings

Treesearch

Mohammad Mohammad; Bradford Douglas; Douglas Rammer; Steven E. Pryor

2013-01-01

The light weight of cross-laminated timber (CLT) products combined with the high level of prefabrication involved, in addition to the need to provide wood-based alternative products and systems to steel land concrete, have significantly contributed to the development of CLT products and systems, especially in mid-rise buildings (5 to 9 stories). While this product is...

The Coordination Role in Research Education: Emerging Understandings and Dilemmas for Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boud, David; Brew, Angela; Dowling, Robyn; Kiley, Margaret; McKenzie, Jo; Malfroy, Janne; Ryland, Kevin; Solomon, Nicky

2014-01-01

Changes in expectations of research education worldwide have seen the rise of new demands beyond supervision and have highlighted the need for academic leadership in research education at a local level. Based on an interview study of those who have taken up local leadership roles in four Australian universities, this paper maps and analyses…

Performance Funding Policy Effects on Community College Outcomes: Are Short-Term Certificates on the Rise?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Amy Y.; Kennedy, Alec I.

2018-01-01

Objective: Performance funding (PF) policies allocate a portion of state funding to colleges based on student outcomes. This study is the first to account for policy type and design differences, and explores the impact of performance funding on three levels of credential completions: short-term certificates, medium-term certificates, and…

Direct sensing of fluoride in aqueous solutions using a boronic acid based sensor.

PubMed

Wu, Xin; Chen, Xuan-Xuan; Song, Bing-Nan; Huang, Yan-Jun; Ouyang, Wen-Juan; Li, Zhao; James, Tony D; Jiang, Yun-Bao

2014-11-21

Binding of the fluoride ion triggers aggregation of a pyreneboronic acid-catechol ensemble in acidic aqueous solutions, giving rise to intense excimer emission, allowing for sensitive fluoride ion sensing at ppm levels, with an apparent fluoride binding constant higher than 10(3) M(-1) which is unprecedented for boronic acid sensors in water.

Solar-power mountain concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, V. C., Jr.

1977-01-01

Solar collectors on mountainside collect thermal energy for mountaintop powerplant. Sloped arrangement reduces heat-transport problem of level ground-based collector field. Heated air rises without mechanical pumps and buoyancy force supplies pumping power without further cost. Precision tracking requirement of power towers eliminated by butted-together Winston-type concentrator troughs. Low-cost native rock is used for heat storage.

The Scholarly Process: A Grounded Theory Exploring How Counselor Educators Promote Scholarship of Counselors-in-Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michalak, Megan B.

2013-01-01

The demand for master's level counseling scholarship is on the rise as a call for evidenced based practices persist (Benishek, 1998; Briggs & Pehrsson, 2008; Huber & Savage, 2009). Although there is a demand to increase the amount of counseling produced scholarship, little examination exists regarding how the profession can begin to…

Top-level dynamics and the regulated gene response of feed-forward loop transcriptional motifs.

PubMed

Mayo, Michael; Abdelzaher, Ahmed; Perkins, Edward J; Ghosh, Preetam

2014-09-01

Feed-forward loops are hierarchical three-node transcriptional subnetworks, wherein a top-level protein regulates the activity of a target gene via two paths: a direct-regulatory path, and an indirect route, whereby the top-level proteins act implicitly through an intermediate transcription factor. Using a transcriptional network of the model bacterium Escherichia coli, we confirmed that nearly all types of feed-forward loop were significantly overrepresented in the bacterial network. We then used mathematical modeling to study their dynamics by manipulating the rise times of the top-level protein concentration, termed the induction time, through alteration of the protein destruction rates. Rise times of the regulated proteins exhibited two qualitatively different regimes, depending on whether top-level inductions were "fast" or "slow." In the fast regime, rise times were nearly independent of rapid top-level inductions, indicative of biological robustness, and occurred when RNA production rate-limits the protein yield. Alternatively, the protein rise times were dependent upon slower top-level inductions, greater than approximately one bacterial cell cycle. An equation is given for this crossover, which depends upon three parameters of the direct-regulatory path: transcriptional cooperation at the DNA-binding site, a protein-DNA dissociation constant, and the relative magnitude of the top-level protien concentration.

10 CFR 435.5 - Performance level determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Performance level determination. 435.5 Section 435.5 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS FOR NEW FEDERAL LOW-RISE RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Mandatory Energy Efficiency Standards for Federal Low-Rise Residential Buildings. § 435...

Examining effects of sea level rise and marsh crabs on Spartina patens using mesocosms

EPA Science Inventory

Coastal salt marshes provide essential ecosystem services but face increasing threats from habitat loss, eutrophication, changing precipitation patterns, and accelerating rates of sea level rise (SLR). Recent studies have suggested that herbivory and burrowing by native salt mars...

10 CFR 435.5 - Performance level determination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Performance level determination. 435.5 Section 435.5 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS FOR NEW FEDERAL LOW-RISE RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Mandatory Energy Efficiency Standards for Federal Low-Rise Residential Buildings. § 435...

Sea level rise, drought and the decline of Spartina patens in New England marshes

EPA Science Inventory

Already heavily impacted by coastal development, estuarine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves) are increasingly affected by climate change via accelerated sea level rise, changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation and storms, and warmer ocean...

The initial rise method extended to multiple trapping levels in thermoluminescent materials.

PubMed

Furetta, C; Guzmán, S; Ruiz, B; Cruz-Zaragoza, E

2011-02-01

The well known Initial Rise Method (IR) is commonly used to determine the activation energy when only one glow peak is presented and analysed in the phosphor materials. However, when the glow peak is more complex, a wide peak and some holders appear in the structure. The application of the Initial Rise Method is not valid because multiple trapping levels are considered and then the thermoluminescent analysis becomes difficult to perform. This paper shows the case of a complex glow curve structure as an example and shows that the calculation is also possible using the IR method. The aim of the paper is to extend the well known Initial Rise Method (IR) to the case of multiple trapping levels. The IR method is applied to minerals extracted from Nopal cactus and Oregano spices because the thermoluminescent glow curve's shape suggests a trap distribution instead of a single trapping level. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

2017-01-01

Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

2013-01-01

With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster-Shafer theory has been used to represent and aggregate these pieces of information. The results of different aggregation rules as well as those of a classical probabilistic approach are compared with the purpose of highlighting the elements each of them could provide to the decision-maker (Manceau et al., 2016). The second example focuses on projections of future sea-level rise. Based on IPCC's constraints on the projection quantiles, and on the scientific community consensus level on the physical limits to future sea-level rise, a possibility distribution of the projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario has been established. This possibility distribution has been confronted with a set of previously published probabilistic sea-level projections, with a focus on their ability to explore high ranges of sea-level rise (Le Cozannet et al., 2016). These two examples are complementary in the sense that they allow to address various aspects of the problem (e.g. representation of different types of information, conflict among experts, sources dependence). Moreover, we believe that the issues faced during these two experiences can be generalized to many risks/hazards assessment situations. References Manceau, JC., Loschetter, A., Rohmer, J., de Lary, L., Le Guénan, T., Hnottavange-Telleen, K. (2016). Dealing with uncertainty on parameters elicited from a pool of experts for CCS risk assessment. Congrès λμ 20 (St-Malo, France). Le Cozannet G., Manceau JC., Rohmer, J. (2016). Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections within the framework of the possibility theory. Accepted in Environmental Research Letters.

MRO's HiRISE Education and Public Outreach during the Primary Science Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulick, V. C.; Davatzes, A. K.; Deardorff, G.; Kanefsky, B.; Conrad, L. B.; HiRISE Team

2008-12-01

Looking back over one Mars year, we report on the accomplishments of the HiRISE EPO program during the primary science phase of MRO. A highlight has been our student image suggestion program, conducted in association with NASA Quest as HiRISE Image Challenges (http://quest.arc.nasa.gov/challenges/hirise/). During challenges, students, either individually or as part of a collaborative classroom or group, learn about Mars through our webcasts, web chats and our educational material. They use HiWeb, HiRISE's image suggestion facility, to submit image suggestions and include a short rationale for why their target is scientifically interesting. The HiRISE team gives priority to obtaining a sampling of these suggestions as quickly as possible so that the acquired images can be examined by the students. During the challenge, a special password-protected web site allows participants to view their returned images before they are released to the public (http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/hirise/quest/). Students are encouraged to write captions for the returned images. Finished captions are then posted and highlighted on the HiRISE web site (http://hirise.lpl.arizona.edu) along with their class, teacher's name and the name of their school. Through these HiRISE challenges, students and teachers become virtual science team members, participating in the same process (selecting and justifying targets, analyzing and writing captions for acquired images), and using the same software tools as the HiRISE team. Such an experience is unique among planetary exploration EPO programs. To date, we have completed three HiRISE challenges and a fourth is currently ongoing. More than 200 image suggestions were submitted during the previous challenges and over 85 of these image requests have been acquired so far. Over 675 participants from 45 states and 42 countries have registered for the previous challenges. These participants represent over 8000 students in grades 2 through 14 and consist primarily of teachers, parents of homeschoolers and student clubs, college students, and life-long learners. HiRISE Clickworkers (http://clickworkers.arc.nasa.gov/hirise), a citizen science effort is also part of our EPO where volunteers identify geologic features (e.g., dunes, craters, wind streaks, gullies, etc.) in the HiRISE images and help generate searchable image databases. We've also developed the HiRISE online image viewer (http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/HiRISE/hirise_images/) where users can browse, pan and zoom through the very large HiRISE images from within their web browser. Educational materials include an assortment of K through college level, standards-based activity books, a K through 3 coloring/story book, a middle school level comic book, and several interactive educational games, including Mars jigsaw puzzles, crosswords, word searches and flash cards (http://hirise.seti.org/epo). HiRISE team members have given numerous classroom presentations and participated in many other informal educational and public events (e.g., Sally Ride Science Festivals, CA Science teachers conference workshops, NASA's Yuri's Night, Xprize events, University of Arizona's Mars Mania and Phoenix public events). The HiRISE operations team maintains a blog (HiBlog) (http://hirise.lpl.arizona.edu/HiBlog/) providing insights to the pulse of daily activities within the operations center as well as useful information about HiRISE.

High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA.

PubMed

Sukop, Michael C; Rogers, Martina; Guannel, Greg; Infanti, Johnna M; Hagemann, Katherine

2018-03-01

Modeling of groundwater levels in a portion of the low-lying coastal Arch Creek basin in northern Miami-Dade County in Southeast Florida USA, which is subject to repetitive flooding, reveals that rain-induced short-term water table rises can be viewed as a primary driver of flooding events under current conditions. Areas below 0.9m North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) elevation are particularly vulnerable and areas below 1.5m NAVD are vulnerable to exceptionally large rainfall events. Long-term water table rise is evident in the groundwater data, and the rate appears to be consistent with local rates of sea level rise. Linear extrapolation of long-term observed groundwater levels to 2060 suggest roughly a doubling of the number of days when groundwater levels exceed 0.9m NAVD and a threefold increase in the number of days when levels exceed 1.5m NAVD. Projected sea level rise of 0.61m by 2060 together with increased rainfall lead to a model prediction of frequent groundwater-related flooding in areas<0.9m NAVD. However, current simulations do not consider the range of rainfall events that have led to water table elevations>1.5m NAVD and widespread flooding of the area in the past. Tidal fluctuations in the water table are predicted to be more pronounced within 600m of a tidally influenced water control structure that is hydrodynamically connected to Biscayne Bay. The inland influence of tidal fluctuations appears to increase with increased sea level, but the principal driver of high groundwater levels under the 2060 scenario conditions remains groundwater recharge due to rainfall events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2011-12-01

The full Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled model Elmer/Ice is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Elmer/Ice employs the finite element method to solve the full Stokes equations, the temperature evolution equation and the evolution equation of the free surface. The general framework of this modeling effort is a contribution to the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) assessment project, a community-organized effort to estimate the likely range of ice sheet contributions to sea level rise over the next few hundred years (http://tinyurl.com/srise-lanl, http://tinyurl.com/srise-umt). The present geometry (surface and basal topographies) is derived from data where the basal topography was created with the preservation of the troughs at the Jakobshavn Ice Stream, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glaciers. A mesh of the computational domain is created using an initial footprint which contains elements of 5 km horizontal resolution and to limit the number elements on the footprint while maximizing the spatial resolution, an anisotropic mesh adaptation scheme is employed based on the Hessian matrix of the observed surface velocities. The adaptation is carried out with the tool YAMS and the final footprint is vertically extruded to form a 3D mesh of 320880 elements with 17 equidistant, terrain-following layers. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations employs direct solvers with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is given by data and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. Results for the SeaRISE 2011 sensitivity experiments are presented so that six different experiments have been conducted, grouped in two sets. The Set C (three experiments) applies a change to the surface precipitation and temperature and the set S (three experiments) applies an amplification factor to change the basal sliding velocity. The experiments are compared to a constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 100 years holding the climate constant to its present state. The experiments with the amplification factor (Set S) show high sensitivities. Relative to the control run, the scenario with an amplification factor of 3x applied to the sliding velocity produces a Greenland contribution to sea level rise of ~25 cm. An amplification factor of 2.5x produces a contribution of ~16 cm and an amplification factor 2x produces a contribution of ~9 cm. The experiments with the changes to the surface precipitation and temperature (set C) show a contribution to sea level rise of ~4 cm when a factor 1x is applied to the temperature and precipitation anomalies. A factor 1.5x produces a sea level rise of ~8 cm and a factor 2x produces a sea level rise of ~12 cm.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

2017-04-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

75 FR 6616 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife; Notice of 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List 83 Species of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-10

... ocean acidification, increasing storm intensities, changes in precipitation, and sea-level rise. The... Indian Ocean are expected to rise above 1998 levels within a few decades (Sheppard, 2003, as cited by the... greenhouse gas concentrations to levels that do not jeopardize these species. The petition also asserts that...

Diffuse radiation increases global ecosystem-level water-use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffat, A. M.; Reichstein, M.; Cescatti, A.; Knohl, A.; Zaehle, S.

2012-12-01

Current environmental changes lead not only to rising atmospheric CO2 levels and air temperature but also to changes in air pollution and thus the light quality of the solar radiation reaching the land-surface. While rising CO2 levels are thought to enhance photosynthesis and closure of stomata, thus leading to relative water savings, the effect of diffuse radiation on transpiration by plants is less clear. It has been speculated that the stimulation of photosynthesis by increased levels of diffuse light may be counteracted by higher transpiration and consequently water depletion and drought stress. Ultimately, in water co-limited systems, the overall effect of diffuse radiation will depend on the sensitivity of canopy transpiration versus photosynthesis to diffuse light, i.e. whether water-use efficiency changes with relative levels of diffuse light. Our study shows that water-use efficiency increases significantly with higher fractions of diffuse light. It uses the ecosystem-atmosphere gas-exchange observations obtained with the eddy covariance method at 29 flux tower sites. In contrast to previous global studies, the analysis is based directly on measurements of diffuse radiation. Its effect on water-use efficiency was derived by analyzing the multivariate response of carbon and water fluxes to radiation and air humidity using a purely empirical approach based on artificial neural networks. We infer that per unit change of diffuse fraction the water-use efficiency increases up to 40% depending on diffuse fraction levels and ecosystem type. Hence, in regions with increasing diffuse radiation positive effects on primary production are expected even under conditions where water is co-limiting productivity.

US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkandt, R.; Auffhammer, M.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible.

Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, S.J.; Gutierrez, B.T.; Thieler, E.R.; Pendleton, E.

2008-01-01

A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure. 

Assessing the response of the Gulf Coast to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John B.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Day, John

2012-11-01

Gulf Coastal Science Consortium Workshop;Houston, Texas, 28-29 June 2012 The newly formed Gulf Coastal Science Consortium held its first workshop at Rice University. The creation of the consortium was prompted by two recent incidents. One incident involved censorship of a book chapter on Galveston Bay by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality that omitted all references to climate change and accelerated sea-level rise. The other incident was the adoption of legislation in North Carolina that requires planners and developers to assume a linear sea-level rise projection, despite compelling scientific evidence for a multifold increase in sea-level rise in historical time.

Methodical approaches to value assessment and determination of the capitalization level of high-rise construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, Vitaly; Dashkov, Leonid; Gorshkov, Roman; Burova, Olga; Romanova, Alina

2018-03-01

The article presents the analysis of the methodological approaches to cost estimation and determination of the capitalization level of high-rise construction objects. Factors determining the value of real estate were considered, three main approaches for estimating the value of real estate objects are given. The main methods of capitalization estimation were analyzed, the most reasonable method for determining the level of capitalization of high-rise buildings was proposed. In order to increase the value of real estate objects, the author proposes measures that enable to increase significantly the capitalization of the enterprise through more efficient use of intangible assets and goodwill.