Decision tree modeling using R.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng

2016-08-01

In machine learning field, decision tree learner is powerful and easy to interpret. It employs recursive binary partitioning algorithm that splits the sample in partitioning variable with the strongest association with the response variable. The process continues until some stopping criteria are met. In the example I focus on conditional inference tree, which incorporates tree-structured regression models into conditional inference procedures. While growing a single tree is subject to small changes in the training data, random forests procedure is introduced to address this problem. The sources of diversity for random forests come from the random sampling and restricted set of input variables to be selected. Finally, I introduce R functions to perform model based recursive partitioning. This method incorporates recursive partitioning into conventional parametric model building.

Decision tree and PCA-based fault diagnosis of rotating machinery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Weixiang; Chen, Jin; Li, Jiaqing

2007-04-01

After analysing the flaws of conventional fault diagnosis methods, data mining technology is introduced to fault diagnosis field, and a new method based on C4.5 decision tree and principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed. In this method, PCA is used to reduce features after data collection, preprocessing and feature extraction. Then, C4.5 is trained by using the samples to generate a decision tree model with diagnosis knowledge. At last the tree model is used to make diagnosis analysis. To validate the method proposed, six kinds of running states (normal or without any defect, unbalance, rotor radial rub, oil whirl, shaft crack and a simultaneous state of unbalance and radial rub), are simulated on Bently Rotor Kit RK4 to test C4.5 and PCA-based method and back-propagation neural network (BPNN). The result shows that C4.5 and PCA-based diagnosis method has higher accuracy and needs less training time than BPNN.

Automated diagnosis of coronary artery disease based on data mining and fuzzy modeling.

PubMed

Tsipouras, Markos G; Exarchos, Themis P; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I; Kotsia, Anna P; Vakalis, Konstantinos V; Naka, Katerina K; Michalis, Lampros K

2008-07-01

A fuzzy rule-based decision support system (DSS) is presented for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD). The system is automatically generated from an initial annotated dataset, using a four stage methodology: 1) induction of a decision tree from the data; 2) extraction of a set of rules from the decision tree, in disjunctive normal form and formulation of a crisp model; 3) transformation of the crisp set of rules into a fuzzy model; and 4) optimization of the parameters of the fuzzy model. The dataset used for the DSS generation and evaluation consists of 199 subjects, each one characterized by 19 features, including demographic and history data, as well as laboratory examinations. Tenfold cross validation is employed, and the average sensitivity and specificity obtained is 62% and 54%, respectively, using the set of rules extracted from the decision tree (first and second stages), while the average sensitivity and specificity increase to 80% and 65%, respectively, when the fuzzification and optimization stages are used. The system offers several advantages since it is automatically generated, it provides CAD diagnosis based on easily and noninvasively acquired features, and is able to provide interpretation for the decisions made.

Evolving optimised decision rules for intrusion detection using particle swarm paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivatha Sindhu, Siva S.; Geetha, S.; Kannan, A.

2012-12-01

The aim of this article is to construct a practical intrusion detection system (IDS) that properly analyses the statistics of network traffic pattern and classify them as normal or anomalous class. The objective of this article is to prove that the choice of effective network traffic features and a proficient machine-learning paradigm enhances the detection accuracy of IDS. In this article, a rule-based approach with a family of six decision tree classifiers, namely Decision Stump, C4.5, Naive Baye's Tree, Random Forest, Random Tree and Representative Tree model to perform the detection of anomalous network pattern is introduced. In particular, the proposed swarm optimisation-based approach selects instances that compose training set and optimised decision tree operate over this trained set producing classification rules with improved coverage, classification capability and generalisation ability. Experiment with the Knowledge Discovery and Data mining (KDD) data set which have information on traffic pattern, during normal and intrusive behaviour shows that the proposed algorithm produces optimised decision rules and outperforms other machine-learning algorithm.

A universal hybrid decision tree classifier design for human activity classification.

PubMed

Chien, Chieh; Pottie, Gregory J

2012-01-01

A system that reliably classifies daily life activities can contribute to more effective and economical treatments for patients with chronic conditions or undergoing rehabilitative therapy. We propose a universal hybrid decision tree classifier for this purpose. The tree classifier can flexibly implement different decision rules at its internal nodes, and can be adapted from a population-based model when supplemented by training data for individuals. The system was tested using seven subjects each monitored by 14 triaxial accelerometers. Each subject performed fourteen different activities typical of daily life. Using leave-one-out cross validation, our decision tree produced average classification accuracies of 89.9%. In contrast, the MATLAB personalized tree classifiers using Gini's diversity index as the split criterion followed by optimally tuning the thresholds for each subject yielded 69.2%.

A P2P Botnet detection scheme based on decision tree and adaptive multilayer neural networks.

PubMed

Alauthaman, Mohammad; Aslam, Nauman; Zhang, Li; Alasem, Rafe; Hossain, M A

2018-01-01

In recent years, Botnets have been adopted as a popular method to carry and spread many malicious codes on the Internet. These malicious codes pave the way to execute many fraudulent activities including spam mail, distributed denial-of-service attacks and click fraud. While many Botnets are set up using centralized communication architecture, the peer-to-peer (P2P) Botnets can adopt a decentralized architecture using an overlay network for exchanging command and control data making their detection even more difficult. This work presents a method of P2P Bot detection based on an adaptive multilayer feed-forward neural network in cooperation with decision trees. A classification and regression tree is applied as a feature selection technique to select relevant features. With these features, a multilayer feed-forward neural network training model is created using a resilient back-propagation learning algorithm. A comparison of feature set selection based on the decision tree, principal component analysis and the ReliefF algorithm indicated that the neural network model with features selection based on decision tree has a better identification accuracy along with lower rates of false positives. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by conducting experiments on real network traffic datasets. In these experiments, an average detection rate of 99.08 % with false positive rate of 0.75 % was observed.

An improved classification tree analysis of high cost modules based upon an axiomatic definition of complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Jianhui; Porter, Adam; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.

1992-01-01

Identification of high cost modules has been viewed as one mechanism to improve overall system reliability, since such modules tend to produce more than their share of problems. A decision tree model was used to identify such modules. In this current paper, a previously developed axiomatic model of program complexity is merged with the previously developed decision tree process for an improvement in the ability to identify such modules. This improvement was tested using data from the NASA Software Engineering Laboratory.

Case-based explanation of non-case-based learning methods.

PubMed Central

Caruana, R.; Kangarloo, H.; Dionisio, J. D.; Sinha, U.; Johnson, D.

1999-01-01

We show how to generate case-based explanations for non-case-based learning methods such as artificial neural nets or decision trees. The method uses the trained model (e.g., the neural net or the decision tree) as a distance metric to determine which cases in the training set are most similar to the case that needs to be explained. This approach is well suited to medical domains, where it is important to understand predictions made by complex machine learning models, and where training and clinical practice makes users adept at case interpretation. PMID:10566351

ATLAAS: an automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced image segmentation in positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Berthon, Beatrice; Marshall, Christopher; Evans, Mererid; Spezi, Emiliano

2016-07-07

Accurate and reliable tumour delineation on positron emission tomography (PET) is crucial for radiotherapy treatment planning. PET automatic segmentation (PET-AS) eliminates intra- and interobserver variability, but there is currently no consensus on the optimal method to use, as different algorithms appear to perform better for different types of tumours. This work aimed to develop a predictive segmentation model, trained to automatically select and apply the best PET-AS method, according to the tumour characteristics. ATLAAS, the automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced segmentation is based on supervised machine learning using decision trees. The model includes nine PET-AS methods and was trained on a 100 PET scans with known true contour. A decision tree was built for each PET-AS algorithm to predict its accuracy, quantified using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), according to the tumour volume, tumour peak to background SUV ratio and a regional texture metric. The performance of ATLAAS was evaluated for 85 PET scans obtained from fillable and printed subresolution sandwich phantoms. ATLAAS showed excellent accuracy across a wide range of phantom data and predicted the best or near-best segmentation algorithm in 93% of cases. ATLAAS outperformed all single PET-AS methods on fillable phantom data with a DSC of 0.881, while the DSC for H&N phantom data was 0.819. DSCs higher than 0.650 were achieved in all cases. ATLAAS is an advanced automatic image segmentation algorithm based on decision tree predictive modelling, which can be trained on images with known true contour, to predict the best PET-AS method when the true contour is unknown. ATLAAS provides robust and accurate image segmentation with potential applications to radiation oncology.

ATLAAS: an automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced image segmentation in positron emission tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berthon, Beatrice; Marshall, Christopher; Evans, Mererid; Spezi, Emiliano

2016-07-01

Accurate and reliable tumour delineation on positron emission tomography (PET) is crucial for radiotherapy treatment planning. PET automatic segmentation (PET-AS) eliminates intra- and interobserver variability, but there is currently no consensus on the optimal method to use, as different algorithms appear to perform better for different types of tumours. This work aimed to develop a predictive segmentation model, trained to automatically select and apply the best PET-AS method, according to the tumour characteristics. ATLAAS, the automatic decision tree-based learning algorithm for advanced segmentation is based on supervised machine learning using decision trees. The model includes nine PET-AS methods and was trained on a 100 PET scans with known true contour. A decision tree was built for each PET-AS algorithm to predict its accuracy, quantified using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), according to the tumour volume, tumour peak to background SUV ratio and a regional texture metric. The performance of ATLAAS was evaluated for 85 PET scans obtained from fillable and printed subresolution sandwich phantoms. ATLAAS showed excellent accuracy across a wide range of phantom data and predicted the best or near-best segmentation algorithm in 93% of cases. ATLAAS outperformed all single PET-AS methods on fillable phantom data with a DSC of 0.881, while the DSC for H&N phantom data was 0.819. DSCs higher than 0.650 were achieved in all cases. ATLAAS is an advanced automatic image segmentation algorithm based on decision tree predictive modelling, which can be trained on images with known true contour, to predict the best PET-AS method when the true contour is unknown. ATLAAS provides robust and accurate image segmentation with potential applications to radiation oncology.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Workforce Forecast

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

ARIMA ) model to forecast the demand for construction skills in Hong Kong. This model was based...Decision Trees ARIMA Rule Based Forecasting Segmentation Forecasting Regression Analysis Simulation Modeling Input-Output Models LP and NLP Markovian...data • When results are needed as a set of easily interpretable rules 4.1.4 ARIMA Auto-regressive, integrated, moving-average ( ARIMA ) models

Decision trees in epidemiological research.

PubMed

Venkatasubramaniam, Ashwini; Wolfson, Julian; Mitchell, Nathan; Barnes, Timothy; JaKa, Meghan; French, Simone

2017-01-01

In many studies, it is of interest to identify population subgroups that are relatively homogeneous with respect to an outcome. The nature of these subgroups can provide insight into effect mechanisms and suggest targets for tailored interventions. However, identifying relevant subgroups can be challenging with standard statistical methods. We review the literature on decision trees, a family of techniques for partitioning the population, on the basis of covariates, into distinct subgroups who share similar values of an outcome variable. We compare two decision tree methods, the popular Classification and Regression tree (CART) technique and the newer Conditional Inference tree (CTree) technique, assessing their performance in a simulation study and using data from the Box Lunch Study, a randomized controlled trial of a portion size intervention. Both CART and CTree identify homogeneous population subgroups and offer improved prediction accuracy relative to regression-based approaches when subgroups are truly present in the data. An important distinction between CART and CTree is that the latter uses a formal statistical hypothesis testing framework in building decision trees, which simplifies the process of identifying and interpreting the final tree model. We also introduce a novel way to visualize the subgroups defined by decision trees. Our novel graphical visualization provides a more scientifically meaningful characterization of the subgroups identified by decision trees. Decision trees are a useful tool for identifying homogeneous subgroups defined by combinations of individual characteristics. While all decision tree techniques generate subgroups, we advocate the use of the newer CTree technique due to its simplicity and ease of interpretation.

PCA based feature reduction to improve the accuracy of decision tree c4.5 classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasution, M. Z. F.; Sitompul, O. S.; Ramli, M.

2018-03-01

Splitting attribute is a major process in Decision Tree C4.5 classification. However, this process does not give a significant impact on the establishment of the decision tree in terms of removing irrelevant features. It is a major problem in decision tree classification process called over-fitting resulting from noisy data and irrelevant features. In turns, over-fitting creates misclassification and data imbalance. Many algorithms have been proposed to overcome misclassification and overfitting on classifications Decision Tree C4.5. Feature reduction is one of important issues in classification model which is intended to remove irrelevant data in order to improve accuracy. The feature reduction framework is used to simplify high dimensional data to low dimensional data with non-correlated attributes. In this research, we proposed a framework for selecting relevant and non-correlated feature subsets. We consider principal component analysis (PCA) for feature reduction to perform non-correlated feature selection and Decision Tree C4.5 algorithm for the classification. From the experiments conducted using available data sets from UCI Cervical cancer data set repository with 858 instances and 36 attributes, we evaluated the performance of our framework based on accuracy, specificity and precision. Experimental results show that our proposed framework is robust to enhance classification accuracy with 90.70% accuracy rates.

Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

PubMed

Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

2012-01-01

Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly redundant attributes that are very common in bioinformatics.

Comprehensive Decision Tree Models in Bioinformatics

PubMed Central

Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

2012-01-01

Purpose Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. Methods This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. Results The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. Conclusions The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly redundant attributes that are very common in bioinformatics. PMID:22479449

Derivative Trade Optimizing Model Utilizing GP Based on Behavioral Finance Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumura, Koki; Kawamoto, Masaru

This paper proposed a new technique which makes the strategy trees for the derivative (option) trading investment decision based on the behavioral finance theory and optimizes it using evolutionary computation, in order to achieve high profitability. The strategy tree uses a technical analysis based on a statistical, experienced technique for the investment decision. The trading model is represented by various technical indexes, and the strategy tree is optimized by the genetic programming(GP) which is one of the evolutionary computations. Moreover, this paper proposed a method using the prospect theory based on the behavioral finance theory to set psychological bias for profit and deficit and attempted to select the appropriate strike price of option for the higher investment efficiency. As a result, this technique produced a good result and found the effectiveness of this trading model by the optimized dealings strategy.

Comparative study of biodegradability prediction of chemicals using decision trees, functional trees, and logistic regression.

PubMed

Chen, Guangchao; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

2014-12-01

Biodegradation is the principal environmental dissipation process of chemicals. As such, it is a dominant factor determining the persistence and fate of organic chemicals in the environment, and is therefore of critical importance to chemical management and regulation. In the present study, the authors developed in silico methods assessing biodegradability based on a large heterogeneous set of 825 organic compounds, using the techniques of the C4.5 decision tree, the functional inner regression tree, and logistic regression. External validation was subsequently carried out by 2 independent test sets of 777 and 27 chemicals. As a result, the functional inner regression tree exhibited the best predictability with predictive accuracies of 81.5% and 81.0%, respectively, on the training set (825 chemicals) and test set I (777 chemicals). Performance of the developed models on the 2 test sets was subsequently compared with that of the Estimation Program Interface (EPI) Suite Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 models, which also showed a better predictability of the functional inner regression tree model. The model built in the present study exhibits a reasonable predictability compared with existing models while possessing a transparent algorithm. Interpretation of the mechanisms of biodegradation was also carried out based on the models developed. © 2014 SETAC.

A Multi Criteria Group Decision-Making Model for Teacher Evaluation in Higher Education Based on Cloud Model and Decision Tree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Ting-Cheng; Wang, Hui

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a cloud multi-criteria group decision-making model for teacher evaluation in higher education which is involving subjectivity, imprecision and fuzziness. First, selecting the appropriate evaluation index depending on the evaluation objectives, indicating a clear structural relationship between the evaluation index and…

Classification and Progression Based on CFS-GA and C5.0 Boost Decision Tree of TCM Zheng in Chronic Hepatitis B.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao Yu; Ma, Li Zhuang; Chu, Na; Zhou, Min; Hu, Yiyang

2013-01-01

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a serious public health problem, and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) plays an important role in the control and treatment for CHB. In the treatment of TCM, zheng discrimination is the most important step. In this paper, an approach based on CFS-GA (Correlation based Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm) and C5.0 boost decision tree is used for zheng classification and progression in the TCM treatment of CHB. The CFS-GA performs better than the typical method of CFS. By CFS-GA, the acquired attribute subset is classified by C5.0 boost decision tree for TCM zheng classification of CHB, and C5.0 decision tree outperforms two typical decision trees of NBTree and REPTree on CFS-GA, CFS, and nonselection in comparison. Based on the critical indicators from C5.0 decision tree, important lab indicators in zheng progression are obtained by the method of stepwise discriminant analysis for expressing TCM zhengs in CHB, and alterations of the important indicators are also analyzed in zheng progression. In conclusion, all the three decision trees perform better on CFS-GA than on CFS and nonselection, and C5.0 decision tree outperforms the two typical decision trees both on attribute selection and nonselection.

Classification of Parkinsonian syndromes from FDG-PET brain data using decision trees with SSM/PCA features.

PubMed

Mudali, D; Teune, L K; Renken, R J; Leenders, K L; Roerdink, J B T M

2015-01-01

Medical imaging techniques like fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) have been used to aid in the differential diagnosis of neurodegenerative brain diseases. In this study, the objective is to classify FDG-PET brain scans of subjects with Parkinsonian syndromes (Parkinson's disease, multiple system atrophy, and progressive supranuclear palsy) compared to healthy controls. The scaled subprofile model/principal component analysis (SSM/PCA) method was applied to FDG-PET brain image data to obtain covariance patterns and corresponding subject scores. The latter were used as features for supervised classification by the C4.5 decision tree method. Leave-one-out cross validation was applied to determine classifier performance. We carried out a comparison with other types of classifiers. The big advantage of decision tree classification is that the results are easy to understand by humans. A visual representation of decision trees strongly supports the interpretation process, which is very important in the context of medical diagnosis. Further improvements are suggested based on enlarging the number of the training data, enhancing the decision tree method by bagging, and adding additional features based on (f)MRI data.

Branch: an interactive, web-based tool for testing hypotheses and developing predictive models.

PubMed

Gangavarapu, Karthik; Babji, Vyshakh; Meißner, Tobias; Su, Andrew I; Good, Benjamin M

2016-07-01

Branch is a web application that provides users with the ability to interact directly with large biomedical datasets. The interaction is mediated through a collaborative graphical user interface for building and evaluating decision trees. These trees can be used to compose and test sophisticated hypotheses and to develop predictive models. Decision trees are built and evaluated based on a library of imported datasets and can be stored in a collective area for sharing and re-use. Branch is hosted at http://biobranch.org/ and the open source code is available at http://bitbucket.org/sulab/biobranch/ asu@scripps.edu or bgood@scripps.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

2009-01-01

The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

Blood oxygen level dependent magnetic resonance imaging for detecting pathological patterns in lupus nephritis patients: a preliminary study using a decision tree model.

PubMed

Shi, Huilan; Jia, Junya; Li, Dong; Wei, Li; Shang, Wenya; Zheng, Zhenfeng

2018-02-09

Precise renal histopathological diagnosis will guide therapy strategy in patients with lupus nephritis. Blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been applicable noninvasive technique in renal disease. This current study was performed to explore whether BOLD MRI could contribute to diagnose renal pathological pattern. Adult patients with lupus nephritis renal pathological diagnosis were recruited for this study. Renal biopsy tissues were assessed based on the lupus nephritis ISN/RPS 2003 classification. The Blood oxygen level dependent magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD-MRI) was used to obtain functional magnetic resonance parameter, R2* values. Several functions of R2* values were calculated and used to construct algorithmic models for renal pathological patterns. In addition, the algorithmic models were compared as to their diagnostic capability. Both Histopathology and BOLD MRI were used to examine a total of twelve patients. Renal pathological patterns included five classes III (including 3 as class III + V) and seven classes IV (including 4 as class IV + V). Three algorithmic models, including decision tree, line discriminant, and logistic regression, were constructed to distinguish the renal pathological pattern of class III and class IV. The sensitivity of the decision tree model was better than that of the line discriminant model (71.87% vs 59.48%, P < 0.001) and inferior to that of the Logistic regression model (71.87% vs 78.71%, P < 0.001). The specificity of decision tree model was equivalent to that of the line discriminant model (63.87% vs 63.73%, P = 0.939) and higher than that of the logistic regression model (63.87% vs 38.0%, P < 0.001). The Area under the ROC curve (AUROCC) of the decision tree model was greater than that of the line discriminant model (0.765 vs 0.629, P < 0.001) and logistic regression model (0.765 vs 0.662, P < 0.001). BOLD MRI is a useful non-invasive imaging technique for the evaluation of lupus nephritis. Decision tree models constructed using functions of R2* values may facilitate the prediction of renal pathological patterns.

Improving ensemble decision tree performance using Adaboost and Bagging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Rajib; Siraj, Fadzilah; Sainin, Mohd Shamrie

2015-12-01

Ensemble classifier systems are considered as one of the most promising in medical data classification and the performance of deceision tree classifier can be increased by the ensemble method as it is proven to be better than single classifiers. However, in a ensemble settings the performance depends on the selection of suitable base classifier. This research employed two prominent esemble s namely Adaboost and Bagging with base classifiers such as Random Forest, Random Tree, j48, j48grafts and Logistic Model Regression (LMT) that have been selected independently. The empirical study shows that the performance varries when different base classifiers are selected and even some places overfitting issue also been noted. The evidence shows that ensemble decision tree classfiers using Adaboost and Bagging improves the performance of selected medical data sets.

Decision Tree based Prediction and Rule Induction for Groundwater Trichloroethene (TCE) Pollution Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Yoo, K.

2013-12-01

For groundwater resource conservation, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution sensitivity or vulnerability. In this work, we attempted to use data mining approach to assess groundwater pollution vulnerability in a TCE (trichloroethylene) contaminated Korean industrial site. The conventional DRASTIC method failed to describe TCE sensitivity data with a poor correlation with hydrogeological properties. Among the different data mining methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR), Case Base Reasoning (CBR), and Decision Tree (DT), the accuracy and consistency of Decision Tree (DT) was the best. According to the following tree analyses with the optimal DT model, the failure of the conventional DRASTIC method in fitting with TCE sensitivity data may be due to the use of inaccurate weight values of hydrogeological parameters for the study site. These findings provide a proof of concept that DT based data mining approach can be used in predicting and rule induction of groundwater TCE sensitivity without pre-existing information on weights of hydrogeological properties.

Using Evidence-Based Decision Trees Instead of Formulas to Identify At-Risk Readers. REL 2014-036

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov; Foorman, Barbara R.

2014-01-01

This study examines whether the classification and regression tree (CART) model improves the early identification of students at risk for reading comprehension difficulties compared with the more difficult to interpret logistic regression model. CART is a type of predictive modeling that relies on nonparametric techniques. It presents results in…

A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

PubMed

Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

2018-06-15

Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic and Contextual Information in HMM Modeling for Handwritten Word Recognition.

PubMed

Bianne-Bernard, Anne-Laure; Menasri, Farès; Al-Hajj Mohamad, Rami; Mokbel, Chafic; Kermorvant, Christopher; Likforman-Sulem, Laurence

2011-10-01

This study aims at building an efficient word recognition system resulting from the combination of three handwriting recognizers. The main component of this combined system is an HMM-based recognizer which considers dynamic and contextual information for a better modeling of writing units. For modeling the contextual units, a state-tying process based on decision tree clustering is introduced. Decision trees are built according to a set of expert-based questions on how characters are written. Questions are divided into global questions, yielding larger clusters, and precise questions, yielding smaller ones. Such clustering enables us to reduce the total number of models and Gaussians densities by 10. We then apply this modeling to the recognition of handwritten words. Experiments are conducted on three publicly available databases based on Latin or Arabic languages: Rimes, IAM, and OpenHart. The results obtained show that contextual information embedded with dynamic modeling significantly improves recognition.

Objective consensus from decision trees.

PubMed

Putora, Paul Martin; Panje, Cedric M; Papachristofilou, Alexandros; Dal Pra, Alan; Hundsberger, Thomas; Plasswilm, Ludwig

2014-12-05

Consensus-based approaches provide an alternative to evidence-based decision making, especially in situations where high-level evidence is limited. Our aim was to demonstrate a novel source of information, objective consensus based on recommendations in decision tree format from multiple sources. Based on nine sample recommendations in decision tree format a representative analysis was performed. The most common (mode) recommendations for each eventuality (each permutation of parameters) were determined. The same procedure was applied to real clinical recommendations for primary radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Data was collected from 16 radiation oncology centres, converted into decision tree format and analyzed in order to determine the objective consensus. Based on information from multiple sources in decision tree format, treatment recommendations can be assessed for every parameter combination. An objective consensus can be determined by means of mode recommendations without compromise or confrontation among the parties. In the clinical example involving prostate cancer therapy, three parameters were used with two cut-off values each (Gleason score, PSA, T-stage) resulting in a total of 27 possible combinations per decision tree. Despite significant variations among the recommendations, a mode recommendation could be found for specific combinations of parameters. Recommendations represented as decision trees can serve as a basis for objective consensus among multiple parties.

Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling.

PubMed

Nakas, Christos T; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B

2016-01-01

Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the "big data" era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures.

Designing efficient nitrous oxide sampling strategies in agroecosystems using simulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Debasish; Kemanian, Armen R.; Rau, Benjamin M.; Adler, Paul R.; Montes, Felipe

2017-04-01

Annual cumulative soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions calculated from discrete chamber-based flux measurements have unknown uncertainty. We used outputs from simulations obtained with an agroecosystem model to design sampling strategies that yield accurate cumulative N2O flux estimates with a known uncertainty level. Daily soil N2O fluxes were simulated for Ames, IA (corn-soybean rotation), College Station, TX (corn-vetch rotation), Fort Collins, CO (irrigated corn), and Pullman, WA (winter wheat), representing diverse agro-ecoregions of the United States. Fertilization source, rate, and timing were site-specific. These simulated fluxes surrogated daily measurements in the analysis. We ;sampled; the fluxes using a fixed interval (1-32 days) or a rule-based (decision tree-based) sampling method. Two types of decision trees were built: a high-input tree (HI) that included soil inorganic nitrogen (SIN) as a predictor variable, and a low-input tree (LI) that excluded SIN. Other predictor variables were identified with Random Forest. The decision trees were inverted to be used as rules for sampling a representative number of members from each terminal node. The uncertainty of the annual N2O flux estimation increased along with the fixed interval length. A 4- and 8-day fixed sampling interval was required at College Station and Ames, respectively, to yield ±20% accuracy in the flux estimate; a 12-day interval rendered the same accuracy at Fort Collins and Pullman. Both the HI and the LI rule-based methods provided the same accuracy as that of fixed interval method with up to a 60% reduction in sampling events, particularly at locations with greater temporal flux variability. For instance, at Ames, the HI rule-based and the fixed interval methods required 16 and 91 sampling events, respectively, to achieve the same absolute bias of 0.2 kg N ha-1 yr-1 in estimating cumulative N2O flux. These results suggest that using simulation models along with decision trees can reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of the estimations of cumulative N2O fluxes using the discrete chamber-based method.

Multi-test decision tree and its application to microarray data classification.

PubMed

Czajkowski, Marcin; Grześ, Marek; Kretowski, Marek

2014-05-01

The desirable property of tools used to investigate biological data is easy to understand models and predictive decisions. Decision trees are particularly promising in this regard due to their comprehensible nature that resembles the hierarchical process of human decision making. However, existing algorithms for learning decision trees have tendency to underfit gene expression data. The main aim of this work is to improve the performance and stability of decision trees with only a small increase in their complexity. We propose a multi-test decision tree (MTDT); our main contribution is the application of several univariate tests in each non-terminal node of the decision tree. We also search for alternative, lower-ranked features in order to obtain more stable and reliable predictions. Experimental validation was performed on several real-life gene expression datasets. Comparison results with eight classifiers show that MTDT has a statistically significantly higher accuracy than popular decision tree classifiers, and it was highly competitive with ensemble learning algorithms. The proposed solution managed to outperform its baseline algorithm on 14 datasets by an average 6%. A study performed on one of the datasets showed that the discovered genes used in the MTDT classification model are supported by biological evidence in the literature. This paper introduces a new type of decision tree which is more suitable for solving biological problems. MTDTs are relatively easy to analyze and much more powerful in modeling high dimensional microarray data than their popular counterparts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online adaptive decision trees: pattern classification and function approximation.

PubMed

Basak, Jayanta

2006-09-01

Recently we have shown that decision trees can be trained in the online adaptive (OADT) mode (Basak, 2004), leading to better generalization score. OADTs were bottlenecked by the fact that they are able to handle only two-class classification tasks with a given structure. In this article, we provide an architecture based on OADT, ExOADT, which can handle multiclass classification tasks and is able to perform function approximation. ExOADT is structurally similar to OADT extended with a regression layer. We also show that ExOADT is capable not only of adapting the local decision hyperplanes in the nonterminal nodes but also has the potential of smoothly changing the structure of the tree depending on the data samples. We provide the learning rules based on steepest gradient descent for the new model ExOADT. Experimentally we demonstrate the effectiveness of ExOADT in the pattern classification and function approximation tasks. Finally, we briefly discuss the relationship of ExOADT with other classification models.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for evaluating new medicines in Health Technology Assessment and beyond: The Advance Value Framework.

PubMed

Angelis, Aris; Kanavos, Panos

2017-09-01

Escalating drug prices have catalysed the generation of numerous "value frameworks" with the aim of informing payers, clinicians and patients on the assessment and appraisal process of new medicines for the purpose of coverage and treatment selection decisions. Although this is an important step towards a more inclusive Value Based Assessment (VBA) approach, aspects of these frameworks are based on weak methodologies and could potentially result in misleading recommendations or decisions. In this paper, a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodological process, based on Multi Attribute Value Theory (MAVT), is adopted for building a multi-criteria evaluation model. A five-stage model-building process is followed, using a top-down "value-focused thinking" approach, involving literature reviews and expert consultations. A generic value tree is structured capturing decision-makers' concerns for assessing the value of new medicines in the context of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and in alignment with decision theory. The resulting value tree (Advance Value Tree) consists of three levels of criteria (top level criteria clusters, mid-level criteria, bottom level sub-criteria or attributes) relating to five key domains that can be explicitly measured and assessed: (a) burden of disease, (b) therapeutic impact, (c) safety profile (d) innovation level and (e) socioeconomic impact. A number of MAVT modelling techniques are introduced for operationalising (i.e. estimating) the model, for scoring the alternative treatment options, assigning relative weights of importance to the criteria, and combining scores and weights. Overall, the combination of these MCDA modelling techniques for the elicitation and construction of value preferences across the generic value tree provides a new value framework (Advance Value Framework) enabling the comprehensive measurement of value in a structured and transparent way. Given its flexibility to meet diverse requirements and become readily adaptable across different settings, the Advance Value Framework could be offered as a decision-support tool for evaluators and payers to aid coverage and reimbursement of new medicines. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Space/age forestry: Implications of planting density and rotation age in SRIC management decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merriam, R.A.; Phillips, V.D.; Liu, W.

1993-12-31

Short-rotation intensive-culture (SRIC) of promising tree crops is being evaluated worldwide for the production of methanol, ethanol, and electricity from renewable biomass resources. Planting density and rotation age are fundamental management decisions associated with SRIC energy plantations. Most studies of these variables have been conducted without the benefit of a unifying theory of the effects of growing space and rotation age on individual tree growth and stand level productivity. A modeling procedure based on field trials of Eucalyptus spp. is presented that evaluates the growth potential of a tree in the absence and presence of competition of neighboring trees inmore » a stand. The results of this analysis are useful in clarifying economic implications of different growing space and rotation age decisions that tree plantation managers must make. The procedure is readily applicable to other species under consideration for SRIC plantations at any location.« less

Bayesian additive decision trees of biomarker by treatment interactions for predictive biomarker detection and subgroup identification.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Zheng, Wei; Zhuo, Daisy Y; Lu, Yuefeng; Ma, Xiwen; Liu, Hengchang; Zeng, Zhen; Laird, Glen

2017-10-11

Personalized medicine, or tailored therapy, has been an active and important topic in recent medical research. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for predictive biomarker detection and subgroup identification. In this article, we propose a novel decision tree-based approach applicable in randomized clinical trials. We model the prognostic effects of the biomarkers using additive regression trees and the biomarker-by-treatment effect using a single regression tree. Bayesian approach is utilized to periodically revise the split variables and the split rules of the decision trees, which provides a better overall fitting. Gibbs sampler is implemented in the MCMC procedure, which updates the prognostic trees and the interaction tree separately. We use the posterior distribution of the interaction tree to construct the predictive scores of the biomarkers and to identify the subgroup where the treatment is superior to the control. Numerical simulations show that our proposed method performs well under various settings comparing to existing methods. We also demonstrate an application of our method in a real clinical trial.

Application of decision tree model for the ground subsidence hazard mapping near abandoned underground coal mines.

PubMed

Lee, Saro; Park, Inhye

2013-09-30

Subsidence of ground caused by underground mines poses hazards to human life and property. This study analyzed the hazard to ground subsidence using factors that can affect ground subsidence and a decision tree approach in a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was Taebaek, Gangwon-do, Korea, where many abandoned underground coal mines exist. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A data-mining classification technique was applied to the GSH mapping, and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. The frequency ratio model was also applied to the GSH mapping for comparing with probabilistic model. The resulting GSH maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the subsidence area data that had not been used for training the model. The highest accuracy was achieved by the decision tree model using CHAID algorithm (94.01%) comparing with QUEST algorithms (90.37%) and frequency ratio model (86.70%). These accuracies are higher than previously reported results for decision tree. Decision tree methods can therefore be used efficiently for GSH analysis and might be widely used for prediction of various spatial events. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ultrasonographic Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia Based on a Decision-Making Tree Model.

PubMed

Lee, So Mi; Cheon, Jung-Eun; Choi, Young Hun; Kim, Woo Sun; Cho, Hyun-Hae; Cho, Hyun-Hye; Kim, In-One; You, Sun Kyoung

2015-01-01

To assess the diagnostic value of various ultrasound (US) findings and to make a decision-tree model for US diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA). From March 2008 to January 2014, the following US findings were retrospectively evaluated in 100 infants with cholestatic jaundice (BA, n = 46; non-BA, n = 54): length and morphology of the gallbladder, triangular cord thickness, hepatic artery and portal vein diameters, and visualization of the common bile duct. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the features that would be useful in predicting BA. Conditional inference tree analysis was used to generate a decision-making tree for classifying patients into the BA or non-BA groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness were significant predictors of BA (p = 0.003 and 0.001; adjusted odds ratio: 345.6 and 65.6, respectively). In the decision-making tree using conditional inference tree analysis, gallbladder morphology and triangular cord thickness (optimal cutoff value of triangular cord thickness, 3.4 mm) were also selected as significant discriminators for differential diagnosis of BA, and gallbladder morphology was the first discriminator. The diagnostic performance of the decision-making tree was excellent, with sensitivity of 100% (46/46), specificity of 94.4% (51/54), and overall accuracy of 97% (97/100). Abnormal gallbladder morphology and greater triangular cord thickness (> 3.4 mm) were the most useful predictors of BA on US. We suggest that the gallbladder morphology should be evaluated first and that triangular cord thickness should be evaluated subsequently in cases with normal gallbladder morphology.

Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

PubMed

Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

2018-01-19

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of < 5%. Prediction accuracy for survival on day 1 was 75.2%. The most important differentiating factor was the interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on day 1. Favorable functional outcome, defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5, was observed in 68.6% of patients. Favorable functional outcome at all time points had a prediction accuracy of 71.1% in the training data set, with procalcitonin on day 1 being the most important differentiating factor at all time points. A total of 148 patients (27%) developed VP shunt dependency. The most important differentiating factor was hyperglycemia on admission. CONCLUSIONS The multiple variable analysis capability of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

a Rough Set Decision Tree Based Mlp-Cnn for Very High Resolution Remotely Sensed Image Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Pan, X.; Zhang, S. Q.; Li, H. P.; Atkinson, P. M.

2017-09-01

Recent advances in remote sensing have witnessed a great amount of very high resolution (VHR) images acquired at sub-metre spatial resolution. These VHR remotely sensed data has post enormous challenges in processing, analysing and classifying them effectively due to the high spatial complexity and heterogeneity. Although many computer-aid classification methods that based on machine learning approaches have been developed over the past decades, most of them are developed toward pixel level spectral differentiation, e.g. Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), which are unable to exploit abundant spatial details within VHR images. This paper introduced a rough set model as a general framework to objectively characterize the uncertainty in CNN classification results, and further partition them into correctness and incorrectness on the map. The correct classification regions of CNN were trusted and maintained, whereas the misclassification areas were reclassified using a decision tree with both CNN and MLP. The effectiveness of the proposed rough set decision tree based MLP-CNN was tested using an urban area at Bournemouth, United Kingdom. The MLP-CNN, well capturing the complementarity between CNN and MLP through the rough set based decision tree, achieved the best classification performance both visually and numerically. Therefore, this research paves the way to achieve fully automatic and effective VHR image classification.

Individualized Prediction of Heat Stress in Firefighters: A Data-Driven Approach Using Classification and Regression Trees.

PubMed

Mani, Ashutosh; Rao, Marepalli; James, Kelley; Bhattacharya, Amit

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore data-driven models, based on decision trees, to develop practical and easy to use predictive models for early identification of firefighters who are likely to cross the threshold of hyperthermia during live-fire training. Predictive models were created for three consecutive live-fire training scenarios. The final predicted outcome was a categorical variable: will a firefighter cross the upper threshold of hyperthermia - Yes/No. Two tiers of models were built, one with and one without taking into account the outcome (whether a firefighter crossed hyperthermia or not) from the previous training scenario. First tier of models included age, baseline heart rate and core body temperature, body mass index, and duration of training scenario as predictors. The second tier of models included the outcome of the previous scenario in the prediction space, in addition to all the predictors from the first tier of models. Classification and regression trees were used independently for prediction. The response variable for the regression tree was the quantitative variable: core body temperature at the end of each scenario. The predicted quantitative variable from regression trees was compared to the upper threshold of hyperthermia (38°C) to predict whether a firefighter would enter hyperthermia. The performance of classification and regression tree models was satisfactory for the second (success rate = 79%) and third (success rate = 89%) training scenarios but not for the first (success rate = 43%). Data-driven models based on decision trees can be a useful tool for predicting physiological response without modeling the underlying physiological systems. Early prediction of heat stress coupled with proactive interventions, such as pre-cooling, can help reduce heat stress in firefighters.

[Study on extraction method of Panax notoginseng plots in Wenshan of Yunnan province based on decision tree model].

PubMed

Shi, Ting-Ting; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi

2017-11-01

The herbs used as the material for traditional Chinese medicine are always planted in the mountainous area where the natural environment is suitable. As the mountain terrain is complex and the distribution of planting plots is scattered, the traditional survey method is difficult to obtain accurate planting area. It is of great significance to provide decision support for the conservation and utilization of traditional Chinese medicine resources by studying the method of extraction of Chinese herbal medicine planting area based on remote sensing and realizing the dynamic monitoring and reserve estimation of Chinese herbal medicines. In this paper, taking the Panax notoginseng plots in Wenshan prefecture of Yunnan province as an example, the China-made GF-1multispectral remote sensing images with a 16 m×16 m resolution were obtained. Then, the time series that can reflect the difference of spectrum of P. notoginseng shed and the background objects were selected to the maximum extent, and the decision tree model of extraction the of P. notoginseng plots was constructed according to the spectral characteristics of the surface features. The results showed that the remote sensing classification method based on the decision tree model could extract P. notoginseng plots in the study area effectively. The method can provide technical support for extraction of P. notoginseng plots at county level. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

Extraction of decision rules via imprecise probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abellán, Joaquín; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura; Castellano, Javier G.

2017-05-01

Data analysis techniques can be applied to discover important relations among features. This is the main objective of the Information Root Node Variation (IRNV) technique, a new method to extract knowledge from data via decision trees. The decision trees used by the original method were built using classic split criteria. The performance of new split criteria based on imprecise probabilities and uncertainty measures, called credal split criteria, differs significantly from the performance obtained using the classic criteria. This paper extends the IRNV method using two credal split criteria: one based on a mathematical parametric model, and other one based on a non-parametric model. The performance of the method is analyzed using a case study of traffic accident data to identify patterns related to the severity of an accident. We found that a larger number of rules is generated, significantly supplementing the information obtained using the classic split criteria.

Automated rule-base creation via CLIPS-Induce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick M.

1994-01-01

Many CLIPS rule-bases contain one or more rule groups that perform classification. In this paper we describe CLIPS-Induce, an automated system for the creation of a CLIPS classification rule-base from a set of test cases. CLIPS-Induce consists of two components, a decision tree induction component and a CLIPS production extraction component. ID3, a popular decision tree induction algorithm, is used to induce a decision tree from the test cases. CLIPS production extraction is accomplished through a top-down traversal of the decision tree. Nodes of the tree are used to construct query rules, and branches of the tree are used to construct classification rules. The learned CLIPS productions may easily be incorporated into a large CLIPS system that perform tasks such as accessing a database or displaying information.

Personalized Modeling for Prediction with Decision-Path Models

PubMed Central

Visweswaran, Shyam; Ferreira, Antonio; Ribeiro, Guilherme A.; Oliveira, Alexandre C.; Cooper, Gregory F.

2015-01-01

Deriving predictive models in medicine typically relies on a population approach where a single model is developed from a dataset of individuals. In this paper we describe and evaluate a personalized approach in which we construct a new type of decision tree model called decision-path model that takes advantage of the particular features of a given person of interest. We introduce three personalized methods that derive personalized decision-path models. We compared the performance of these methods to that of Classification And Regression Tree (CART) that is a population decision tree to predict seven different outcomes in five medical datasets. Two of the three personalized methods performed statistically significantly better on area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier skill score compared to CART. The personalized approach of learning decision path models is a new approach for predictive modeling that can perform better than a population approach. PMID:26098570

A research of selected textural features for detection of asbestos-cement roofing sheets using orthoimages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Książek, Judyta

2015-10-01

At present, there has been a great interest in the development of texture based image classification methods in many different areas. This study presents the results of research carried out to assess the usefulness of selected textural features for detection of asbestos-cement roofs in orthophotomap classification. Two different orthophotomaps of southern Poland (with ground resolution: 5 cm and 25 cm) were used. On both orthoimages representative samples for two classes: asbestos-cement roofing sheets and other roofing materials were selected. Estimation of texture analysis usefulness was conducted using machine learning methods based on decision trees (C5.0 algorithm). For this purpose, various sets of texture parameters were calculated in MaZda software. During the calculation of decision trees different numbers of texture parameters groups were considered. In order to obtain the best settings for decision trees models cross-validation was performed. Decision trees models with the lowest mean classification error were selected. The accuracy of the classification was held based on validation data sets, which were not used for the classification learning. For 5 cm ground resolution samples, the lowest mean classification error was 15.6%. The lowest mean classification error in the case of 25 cm ground resolution was 20.0%. The obtained results confirm potential usefulness of the texture parameter image processing for detection of asbestos-cement roofing sheets. In order to improve the accuracy another extended study should be considered in which additional textural features as well as spectral characteristics should be analyzed.

Theory of the decision/problem state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.

Circum-Arctic petroleum systems identified using decision-tree chemometrics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, K.E.; Ramos, L.S.; Zumberge, J.E.; Valin, Z.C.; Scotese, C.R.; Gautier, D.L.

2007-01-01

Source- and age-related biomarker and isotopic data were measured for more than 1000 crude oil samples from wells and seeps collected above approximately 55??N latitude. A unique, multitiered chemometric (multivariate statistical) decision tree was created that allowed automated classification of 31 genetically distinct circumArctic oil families based on a training set of 622 oil samples. The method, which we call decision-tree chemometrics, uses principal components analysis and multiple tiers of K-nearest neighbor and SIMCA (soft independent modeling of class analogy) models to classify and assign confidence limits for newly acquired oil samples and source rock extracts. Geochemical data for each oil sample were also used to infer the age, lithology, organic matter input, depositional environment, and identity of its source rock. These results demonstrate the value of large petroleum databases where all samples were analyzed using the same procedures and instrumentation. Copyright ?? 2007. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

PubMed

Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

2018-01-01

Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EEG feature selection method based on decision tree.

PubMed

Duan, Lijuan; Ge, Hui; Ma, Wei; Miao, Jun

2015-01-01

This paper aims to solve automated feature selection problem in brain computer interface (BCI). In order to automate feature selection process, we proposed a novel EEG feature selection method based on decision tree (DT). During the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal processing, a feature extraction method based on principle component analysis (PCA) was used, and the selection process based on decision tree was performed by searching the feature space and automatically selecting optimal features. Considering that EEG signals are a series of non-linear signals, a generalized linear classifier named support vector machine (SVM) was chosen. In order to test the validity of the proposed method, we applied the EEG feature selection method based on decision tree to BCI Competition II datasets Ia, and the experiment showed encouraging results.

Decision-Tree Analysis for Predicting First-Time Pass/Fail Rates for the NCLEX-RN® in Associate Degree Nursing Students.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiu-Chin; Bennett, Sean

2016-08-01

Little evidence shows the use of decision-tree algorithms in identifying predictors and analyzing their associations with pass rates for the NCLEX-RN(®) in associate degree nursing students. This longitudinal and retrospective cohort study investigated whether a decision-tree algorithm could be used to develop an accurate prediction model for the students' passing or failing the NCLEX-RN. This study used archived data from 453 associate degree nursing students in a selected program. The chi-squared automatic interaction detection analysis of the decision trees module was used to examine the effect of the collected predictors on passing/failing the NCLEX-RN. The actual percentage scores of Assessment Technologies Institute®'s RN Comprehensive Predictor(®) accurately identified students at risk of failing. The classification model correctly classified 92.7% of the students for passing. This study applied the decision-tree model to analyze a sequence database for developing a prediction model for early remediation in preparation for the NCLEXRN. [J Nurs Educ. 2016;55(8):454-457.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

[Modeling in value-based medicine].

PubMed

Neubauer, A S; Hirneiss, C; Kampik, A

2010-03-01

Modeling plays an important role in value-based medicine (VBM). It allows decision support by predicting potential clinical and economic consequences, frequently combining different sources of evidence. Based on relevant publications and examples focusing on ophthalmology the key economic modeling methods are explained and definitions are given. The most frequently applied model types are decision trees, Markov models, and discrete event simulation (DES) models. Model validation includes besides verifying internal validity comparison with other models (external validity) and ideally validation of its predictive properties. The existing uncertainty with any modeling should be clearly stated. This is true for economic modeling in VBM as well as when using disease risk models to support clinical decisions. In economic modeling uni- and multivariate sensitivity analyses are usually applied; the key concepts here are tornado plots and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Given the existing uncertainty, modeling helps to make better informed decisions than without this additional information.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-02-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modeling. In this paper we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modeling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalization property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally very efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analyzed on two real-world case studies (Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia)) representing two different morphoclimatic contexts comparatively with other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-07-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modelling. In this paper, we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modelling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalisation property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analysed on two real-world case studies - Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia) - representing two different morphoclimatic contexts. The evaluation is performed against other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

Binary Decision Trees for Preoperative Periapical Cyst Screening Using Cone-beam Computed Tomography.

PubMed

Pitcher, Brandon; Alaqla, Ali; Noujeim, Marcel; Wealleans, James A; Kotsakis, Georgios; Chrepa, Vanessa

2017-03-01

Cone-beam computed tomographic (CBCT) analysis allows for 3-dimensional assessment of periradicular lesions and may facilitate preoperative periapical cyst screening. The purpose of this study was to develop and assess the predictive validity of a cyst screening method based on CBCT volumetric analysis alone or combined with designated radiologic criteria. Three independent examiners evaluated 118 presurgical CBCT scans from cases that underwent apicoectomies and had an accompanying gold standard histopathological diagnosis of either a cyst or granuloma. Lesion volume, density, and specific radiologic characteristics were assessed using specialized software. Logistic regression models with histopathological diagnosis as the dependent variable were constructed for cyst prediction, and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess the predictive validity of the models. A conditional inference binary decision tree based on a recursive partitioning algorithm was constructed to facilitate preoperative screening. Interobserver agreement was excellent for volume and density, but it varied from poor to good for the radiologic criteria. Volume and root displacement were strong predictors for cyst screening in all analyses. The binary decision tree classifier determined that if the volume of the lesion was >247 mm 3 , there was 80% probability of a cyst. If volume was <247 mm 3 and root displacement was present, cyst probability was 60% (78% accuracy). The good accuracy and high specificity of the decision tree classifier renders it a useful preoperative cyst screening tool that can aid in clinical decision making but not a substitute for definitive histopathological diagnosis after biopsy. Confirmatory studies are required to validate the present findings. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using decision trees to characterize verbal communication during change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process

PubMed Central

Masías, Víctor H.; Krause, Mariane; Valdés, Nelson; Pérez, J. C.; Laengle, Sigifredo

2015-01-01

Methods are needed for creating models to characterize verbal communication between therapists and their patients that are suitable for teaching purposes without losing analytical potential. A technique meeting these twin requirements is proposed that uses decision trees to identify both change and stuck episodes in therapist-patient communication. Three decision tree algorithms (C4.5, NBTree, and REPTree) are applied to the problem of characterizing verbal responses into change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process. The data for the problem is derived from a corpus of 8 successful individual therapy sessions with 1760 speaking turns in a psychodynamic context. The decision tree model that performed best was generated by the C4.5 algorithm. It delivered 15 rules characterizing the verbal communication in the two types of episodes. Decision trees are a promising technique for analyzing verbal communication during significant therapy events and have much potential for use in teaching practice on changes in therapeutic communication. The development of pedagogical methods using decision trees can support the transmission of academic knowledge to therapeutic practice. PMID:25914657

Using decision trees to characterize verbal communication during change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process.

PubMed

Masías, Víctor H; Krause, Mariane; Valdés, Nelson; Pérez, J C; Laengle, Sigifredo

2015-01-01

Methods are needed for creating models to characterize verbal communication between therapists and their patients that are suitable for teaching purposes without losing analytical potential. A technique meeting these twin requirements is proposed that uses decision trees to identify both change and stuck episodes in therapist-patient communication. Three decision tree algorithms (C4.5, NBTree, and REPTree) are applied to the problem of characterizing verbal responses into change and stuck episodes in the therapeutic process. The data for the problem is derived from a corpus of 8 successful individual therapy sessions with 1760 speaking turns in a psychodynamic context. The decision tree model that performed best was generated by the C4.5 algorithm. It delivered 15 rules characterizing the verbal communication in the two types of episodes. Decision trees are a promising technique for analyzing verbal communication during significant therapy events and have much potential for use in teaching practice on changes in therapeutic communication. The development of pedagogical methods using decision trees can support the transmission of academic knowledge to therapeutic practice.

Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

DOEpatents

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

2005-08-30

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Bioinformatics in proteomics: application, terminology, and pitfalls.

PubMed

Wiemer, Jan C; Prokudin, Alexander

2004-01-01

Bioinformatics applies data mining, i.e., modern computer-based statistics, to biomedical data. It leverages on machine learning approaches, such as artificial neural networks, decision trees and clustering algorithms, and is ideally suited for handling huge data amounts. In this article, we review the analysis of mass spectrometry data in proteomics, starting with common pre-processing steps and using single decision trees and decision tree ensembles for classification. Special emphasis is put on the pitfall of overfitting, i.e., of generating too complex single decision trees. Finally, we discuss the pros and cons of the two different decision tree usages.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets

PubMed Central

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details. PMID:26158662

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

PubMed

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Ye, Fang; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Yong; Fan, Qin-Ying; Wang, Lin

2016-01-01

Background: In the past decades, studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China. With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years, available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China, especially with comparison between native residents and floating population. This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing. Methods: As useful methods to build a predictive model, Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia. A total of 1091 infants aged 6–12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. Results: The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%–40.00% in different subgroup characteristics. The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia. Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months, and floating population, CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor, the maternal educational level, with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusions: The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners. CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity. Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities. PMID:27174328

Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection Decision Tree Analysis of Risk Factors for Infant Anemia in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Ye, Fang; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Chen, Jie; Liu, Fang; Zhang, Yong; Fan, Qin-Ying; Wang, Lin

2016-05-20

In the past decades, studies on infant anemia have mainly focused on rural areas of China. With the increasing heterogeneity of population in recent years, available information on infant anemia is inconclusive in large cities of China, especially with comparison between native residents and floating population. This population-based cross-sectional study was implemented to determine the anemic status of infants as well as the risk factors in a representative downtown area of Beijing. As useful methods to build a predictive model, Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis and logistic regression analysis were introduced to explore risk factors of infant anemia. A total of 1091 infants aged 6-12 months together with their parents/caregivers living at Heping Avenue Subdistrict of Beijing were surveyed from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014. The prevalence of anemia was 12.60% with a range of 3.47%-40.00% in different subgroup characteristics. The CHAID decision tree model has demonstrated multilevel interaction among risk factors through stepwise pathways to detect anemia. Besides the three predictors identified by logistic regression model including maternal anemia during pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months, and floating population, CHAID decision tree analysis also identified the fourth risk factor, the maternal educational level, with higher overall classification accuracy and larger area below the receiver operating characteristic curve. The infant anemic status in metropolis is complex and should be carefully considered by the basic health care practitioners. CHAID decision tree analysis has demonstrated a better performance in hierarchical analysis of population with great heterogeneity. Risk factors identified by this study might be meaningful in the early detection and prompt treatment of infant anemia in large cities.

Inside the black box: starting to uncover the underlying decision rules used in one-by-one expert assessment of occupational exposure in case-control studies

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Yu, Kai; Shortreed, Susan M.; Pronk, Anjoeka; Stewart, Patricia A.; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Silverman, Debra T.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2014-01-01

Objectives Evaluating occupational exposures in population-based case-control studies often requires exposure assessors to review each study participants' reported occupational information job-by-job to derive exposure estimates. Although such assessments likely have underlying decision rules, they usually lack transparency, are time-consuming and have uncertain reliability and validity. We aimed to identify the underlying rules to enable documentation, review, and future use of these expert-based exposure decisions. Methods Classification and regression trees (CART, predictions from a single tree) and random forests (predictions from many trees) were used to identify the underlying rules from the questionnaire responses and an expert's exposure assignments for occupational diesel exhaust exposure for several metrics: binary exposure probability and ordinal exposure probability, intensity, and frequency. Data were split into training (n=10,488 jobs), testing (n=2,247), and validation (n=2,248) data sets. Results The CART and random forest models' predictions agreed with 92–94% of the expert's binary probability assignments. For ordinal probability, intensity, and frequency metrics, the two models extracted decision rules more successfully for unexposed and highly exposed jobs (86–90% and 57–85%, respectively) than for low or medium exposed jobs (7–71%). Conclusions CART and random forest models extracted decision rules and accurately predicted an expert's exposure decisions for the majority of jobs and identified questionnaire response patterns that would require further expert review if the rules were applied to other jobs in the same or different study. This approach makes the exposure assessment process in case-control studies more transparent and creates a mechanism to efficiently replicate exposure decisions in future studies. PMID:23155187

Integrated approach using data mining-based decision tree and object-based image analysis for high-resolution urban mapping of WorldView-2 satellite sensor data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamedianfar, Alireza; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd

2016-04-01

This paper integrates decision tree-based data mining (DM) and object-based image analysis (OBIA) to provide a transferable model for the detailed characterization of urban land-cover classes using WorldView-2 (WV-2) satellite images. Many articles have been published on OBIA in recent years based on DM for different applications. However, less attention has been paid to the generation of a transferable model for characterizing detailed urban land cover features. Three subsets of WV-2 images were used in this paper to generate transferable OBIA rule-sets. Many features were explored by using a DM algorithm, which created the classification rules as a decision tree (DT) structure from the first study area. The developed DT algorithm was applied to object-based classifications in the first study area. After this process, we validated the capability and transferability of the classification rules into second and third subsets. Detailed ground truth samples were collected to assess the classification results. The first, second, and third study areas achieved 88%, 85%, and 85% overall accuracies, respectively. Results from the investigation indicate that DM was an efficient method to provide the optimal and transferable classification rules for OBIA, which accelerates the rule-sets creation stage in the OBIA classification domain.

Section-Based Tree Species Identification Using Airborne LIDAR Point Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, C.; Zhang, X.; Liu, H.

2017-09-01

The application of LiDAR data in forestry initially focused on mapping forest community, particularly and primarily intended for largescale forest management and planning. Then with the smaller footprint and higher sampling density LiDAR data available, detecting individual tree overstory, estimating crowns parameters and identifying tree species are demonstrated practicable. This paper proposes a section-based protocol of tree species identification taking palm tree as an example. Section-based method is to detect objects through certain profile among different direction, basically along X-axis or Y-axis. And this method improve the utilization of spatial information to generate accurate results. Firstly, separate the tree points from manmade-object points by decision-tree-based rules, and create Crown Height Mode (CHM) by subtracting the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) from the digital surface model (DSM). Then calculate and extract key points to locate individual trees, thus estimate specific tree parameters related to species information, such as crown height, crown radius, and cross point etc. Finally, with parameters we are able to identify certain tree species. Comparing to species information measured on ground, the portion correctly identified trees on all plots could reach up to 90.65 %. The identification result in this research demonstrate the ability to distinguish palm tree using LiDAR point cloud. Furthermore, with more prior knowledge, section-based method enable the process to classify trees into different classes.

Safety validation of decision trees for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Wang, Xian-Qiang; Liu, Zhe; Lv, Wen-Ping; Luo, Ying; Yang, Guang-Yun; Li, Chong-Hui; Meng, Xiang-Fei; Liu, Yang; Xu, Ke-Sen; Dong, Jia-Hong

2015-08-21

To evaluate a different decision tree for safe liver resection and verify its efficiency. A total of 2457 patients underwent hepatic resection between January 2004 and December 2010 at the Chinese PLA General Hospital, and 634 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were eligible for the final analyses. Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) was identified by the association of prothrombin time < 50% and serum bilirubin > 50 μmol/L (the "50-50" criteria), which were assessed at day 5 postoperatively or later. The Swiss-Clavien decision tree, Tokyo University-Makuuchi decision tree, and Chinese consensus decision tree were adopted to divide patients into two groups based on those decision trees in sequence, and the PHLF rates were recorded. The overall mortality and PHLF rate were 0.16% and 3.0%. A total of 19 patients experienced PHLF. The numbers of patients to whom the Swiss-Clavien, Tokyo University-Makuuchi, and Chinese consensus decision trees were applied were 581, 573, and 622, and the PHLF rates were 2.75%, 2.62%, and 2.73%, respectively. Significantly more cases satisfied the Chinese consensus decision tree than the Swiss-Clavien decision tree and Tokyo University-Makuuchi decision tree (P < 0.01，P < 0.01); nevertheless, the latter two shared no difference (P = 0.147). The PHLF rate exhibited no significant difference with respect to the three decision trees. The Chinese consensus decision tree expands the indications for hepatic resection for HCC patients and does not increase the PHLF rate compared to the Swiss-Clavien and Tokyo University-Makuuchi decision trees. It would be a safe and effective algorithm for hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

An Isometric Mapping Based Co-Location Decision Tree Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, G.; Wei, J.; Zhou, X.; Zhang, R.; Huang, W.; Sha, H.; Chen, J.

2018-05-01

Decision tree (DT) induction has been widely used in different pattern classification. However, most traditional DTs have the disadvantage that they consider only non-spatial attributes (ie, spectral information) as a result of classifying pixels, which can result in objects being misclassified. Therefore, some researchers have proposed a co-location decision tree (Cl-DT) method, which combines co-location and decision tree to solve the above the above-mentioned traditional decision tree problems. Cl-DT overcomes the shortcomings of the existing DT algorithms, which create a node for each value of a given attribute, which has a higher accuracy than the existing decision tree approach. However, for non-linearly distributed data instances, the euclidean distance between instances does not reflect the true positional relationship between them. In order to overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes an isometric mapping method based on Cl-DT (called, (Isomap-based Cl-DT), which is a method that combines heterogeneous and Cl-DT together. Because isometric mapping methods use geodetic distances instead of Euclidean distances between non-linearly distributed instances, the true distance between instances can be reflected. The experimental results and several comparative analyzes show that: (1) The extraction method of exposed carbonate rocks is of high accuracy. (2) The proposed method has many advantages, because the total number of nodes, the number of leaf nodes and the number of nodes are greatly reduced compared to Cl-DT. Therefore, the Isomap -based Cl-DT algorithm can construct a more accurate and faster decision tree.

Ethnographic Decision Tree Modeling: A Research Method for Counseling Psychology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Kirk A.

2005-01-01

This article describes ethnographic decision tree modeling (EDTM; C. H. Gladwin, 1989) as a mixed method design appropriate for counseling psychology research. EDTM is introduced and located within a postpositivist research paradigm. Decision theory that informs EDTM is reviewed, and the 2 phases of EDTM are highlighted. The 1st phase, model…

[Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

PubMed

Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

Use of CHAID Decision Trees to Formulate Pathways for the Early Detection of Metabolic Syndrome in Young Adults

PubMed Central

Liu, Pei-Yang

2014-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) in young adults (age 20–39) is often undiagnosed. A simple screening tool using a surrogate measure might be invaluable in the early detection of MetS. Methods. A chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree analysis with waist circumference user-specified as the first level was used to detect MetS in young adults using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2010 Cohort as a representative sample of the United States population (n = 745). Results. Twenty percent of the sample met the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP) classification criteria for MetS. The user-specified CHAID model was compared to both CHAID model with no user-specified first level and logistic regression based model. This analysis identified waist circumference as a strong predictor in the MetS diagnosis. The accuracy of the final model with waist circumference user-specified as the first level was 92.3% with its ability to detect MetS at 71.8% which outperformed comparison models. Conclusions. Preliminary findings suggest that young adults at risk for MetS could be identified for further followup based on their waist circumference. Decision tree methods show promise for the development of a preliminary detection algorithm for MetS. PMID:24817904

The economic impact of pig-associated parasitic zoonosis in Northern Lao PDR.

PubMed

Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Conlan, James V; Racloz, Vanessa Nadine; Reid, Simon Andrew; Blacksell, Stuart D; Fenwick, Stanley G; Thompson, Andrew R C; Khamlome, Boualam; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Whittaker, Maxine

2013-03-01

The parasitic zoonoses human cysticercosis (Taenia solium), taeniasis (other Taenia species) and trichinellosis (Trichinella species) are endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study was designed to quantify the economic burden pig-associated zoonotic disease pose in Lao PDR. In particular, the analysis included estimation of the losses in the pork industry as well as losses due to human illness and lost productivity. A Markov-probability based decision-tree model was chosen to form the basis of the calculations to estimate the economic and public health impacts of taeniasis, trichinellosis and cysticercosis. Two different decision trees were run simultaneously on the model's human cohort. A third decision tree simulated the potential impacts on pig production. The human capital method was used to estimate productivity loss. The results found varied significantly depending on the rate of hospitalisation due to neurocysticerosis. This study is the first systematic estimate of the economic impact of pig-associated zoonotic diseases in Lao PDR that demonstrates the significance of the diseases in that country.

Development and Validation of a Primary Care-Based Family Health History and Decision Support Program (MeTree)

PubMed Central

Orlando, Lori A.; Buchanan, Adam H.; Hahn, Susan E.; Christianson, Carol A.; Powell, Karen P.; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Chesnut, Blair; Blach, Colette; Due, Barbara; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S.; Henrich, Vincent C.

2016-01-01

INTRODUCTION Family health history is a strong predictor of disease risk. To reduce the morbidity and mortality of many chronic diseases, risk-stratified evidence-based guidelines strongly encourage the collection and synthesis of family health history to guide selection of primary prevention strategies. However, the collection and synthesis of such information is not well integrated into clinical practice. To address barriers to collection and use of family health histories, the Genomedical Connection developed and validated MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing family health history collection and clinical decision support tool. MeTree is designed for integration into primary care practices as part of the genomic medicine model for primary care. METHODS We describe the guiding principles, operational characteristics, algorithm development, and coding used to develop MeTree. Validation was performed through stakeholder cognitive interviewing, a genetic counseling pilot program, and clinical practice pilot programs in 2 community-based primary care clinics. RESULTS Stakeholder feedback resulted in changes to MeTree’s interface and changes to the phrasing of clinical decision support documents. The pilot studies resulted in the identification and correction of coding errors and the reformatting of clinical decision support documents. MeTree’s strengths in comparison with other tools are its seamless integration into clinical practice and its provision of action-oriented recommendations guided by providers’ needs. LIMITATIONS The tool was validated in a small cohort. CONCLUSION MeTree can be integrated into primary care practices to help providers collect and synthesize family health history information from patients with the goal of improving adherence to risk-stratified evidence-based guidelines. PMID:24044145

Improved Frame Mode Selection for AMR-WB+ Based on Decision Tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jong Kyu; Kim, Nam Soo

In this letter, we propose a coding mode selection method for the AMR-WB+ audio coder based on a decision tree. In order to reduce computation while maintaining good performance, decision tree classifier is adopted with the closed loop mode selection results as the target classification labels. The size of the decision tree is controlled by pruning, so the proposed method does not increase the memory requirement significantly. Through an evaluation test on a database covering both speech and music materials, the proposed method is found to achieve a much better mode selection accuracy compared with the open loop mode selection module in the AMR-WB+.

Prospective identification of adolescent suicide ideation using classification tree analysis: Models for community-based screening.

PubMed

Hill, Ryan M; Oosterhoff, Benjamin; Kaplow, Julie B

2017-07-01

Although a large number of risk markers for suicide ideation have been identified, little guidance has been provided to prospectively identify adolescents at risk for suicide ideation within community settings. The current study addressed this gap in the literature by utilizing classification tree analysis (CTA) to provide a decision-making model for screening adolescents at risk for suicide ideation. Participants were N = 4,799 youth (Mage = 16.15 years, SD = 1.63) who completed both Waves 1 and 2 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. CTA was used to generate a series of decision rules for identifying adolescents at risk for reporting suicide ideation at Wave 2. Findings revealed 3 distinct solutions with varying sensitivity and specificity for identifying adolescents who reported suicide ideation. Sensitivity of the classification trees ranged from 44.6% to 77.6%. The tree with greatest specificity and lowest sensitivity was based on a history of suicide ideation. The tree with moderate sensitivity and high specificity was based on depressive symptoms, suicide attempts or suicide among family and friends, and social support. The most sensitive but least specific tree utilized these factors and gender, ethnicity, hours of sleep, school-related factors, and future orientation. These classification trees offer community organizations options for instituting large-scale screenings for suicide ideation risk depending on the available resources and modality of services to be provided. This study provides a theoretically and empirically driven model for prospectively identifying adolescents at risk for suicide ideation and has implications for preventive interventions among at-risk youth. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The risk factors of laryngeal pathology in Korean adults using a decision tree model.

PubMed

Byeon, Haewon

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors affecting laryngeal pathology in the Korean population and to evaluate the derived prediction model. Cross-sectional study. Data were drawn from the 2008 Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. The subjects were 3135 persons (1508 male and 2114 female) aged 19 years and older living in the community. The independent variables were age, sex, occupation, smoking, alcohol drinking, and self-reported voice problems. A decision tree analysis was done to identify risk factors for predicting a model of laryngeal pathology. The significant risk factors of laryngeal pathology were age, gender, occupation, smoking, and self-reported voice problem in decision tree model. Four significant paths were identified in the decision tree model for the prediction of laryngeal pathology. Those identified as high risk groups for laryngeal pathology included those who self-reported a voice problem, those who were males in their 50s who did not recognize a voice problem, those who were not economically active males in their 40s, and male workers aged 19 and over and under 50 or 60 and over who currently smoked. The results of this study suggest that individual risk factors, such as age, sex, occupation, health behavior, and self-reported voice problem, affect the onset of laryngeal pathology in a complex manner. Based on the results of this study, early management of the high-risk groups is needed for the prevention of laryngeal pathology. Copyright © 2015 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Naive Bayes and Decision Tree on Feature Selection Using Genetic Algorithm for Classification Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmadani, S.; Dongoran, A.; Zarlis, M.; Zakarias

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the problem of feature selection using genetic algorithms on a dataset for classification problems. The classification model used is the decicion tree (DT), and Naive Bayes. In this paper we will discuss how the Naive Bayes and Decision Tree models to overcome the classification problem in the dataset, where the dataset feature is selectively selected using GA. Then both models compared their performance, whether there is an increase in accuracy or not. From the results obtained shows an increase in accuracy if the feature selection using GA. The proposed model is referred to as GADT (GA-Decision Tree) and GANB (GA-Naive Bayes). The data sets tested in this paper are taken from the UCI Machine Learning repository.

The application of a decision tree to establish the parameters associated with hypertension.

PubMed

Tayefi, Maryam; Esmaeili, Habibollah; Saberi Karimian, Maryam; Amirabadi Zadeh, Alireza; Ebrahimi, Mahmoud; Safarian, Mohammad; Nematy, Mohsen; Parizadeh, Seyed Mohammad Reza; Ferns, Gordon A; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid

2017-02-01

Hypertension is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The goal of this study was to establish the factors associated with hypertension by using a decision-tree algorithm as a supervised classification method of data mining. Data from a cross-sectional study were used in this study. A total of 9078 subjects who met the inclusion criteria were recruited. 70% of these subjects (6358 cases) were randomly allocated to the training dataset for the constructing of the decision-tree. The remaining 30% (2720 cases) were used as the testing dataset to evaluate the performance of decision-tree. Two models were evaluated in this study. In model I, age, gender, body mass index, marital status, level of education, occupation status, depression and anxiety status, physical activity level, smoking status, LDL, TG, TC, FBG, uric acid and hs-CRP were considered as input variables and in model II, age, gender, WBC, RBC, HGB, HCT MCV, MCH, PLT, RDW and PDW were considered as input variables. The validation of the model was assessed by constructing a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The prevalence rates of hypertension were 32% in our population. For the decision-tree model I, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for identifying the related risk factors of hypertension were 73%, 63%, 77% and 0.72, respectively. The corresponding values for model II were 70%, 61%, 74% and 0.68, respectively. We have developed a decision tree model to identify the risk factors associated with hypertension that maybe used to develop programs for hypertension management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Decision Trees for Cloud Detection from AVHRR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiffman, Smadar; Nemani, Ramakrishna

2005-01-01

Automated cloud detection and tracking is an important step in assessing changes in radiation budgets associated with global climate change via remote sensing. Data products based on satellite imagery are available to the scientific community for studying trends in the Earth's atmosphere. The data products include pixel-based cloud masks that assign cloud-cover classifications to pixels. Many cloud-mask algorithms have the form of decision trees. The decision trees employ sequential tests that scientists designed based on empirical astrophysics studies and simulations. Limitations of existing cloud masks restrict our ability to accurately track changes in cloud patterns over time. In a previous study we compared automatically learned decision trees to cloud masks included in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data products from the year 2000. In this paper we report the replication of the study for five-year data, and for a gold standard based on surface observations performed by scientists at weather stations in the British Islands. For our sample data, the accuracy of automatically learned decision trees was greater than the accuracy of the cloud masks p < 0.001.

Computerization of guidelines: a knowledge specification method to convert text to detailed decision tree for electronic implementation.

PubMed

Aguirre-Junco, Angel-Ricardo; Colombet, Isabelle; Zunino, Sylvain; Jaulent, Marie-Christine; Leneveut, Laurence; Chatellier, Gilles

2004-01-01

The initial step for the computerization of guidelines is the knowledge specification from the prose text of guidelines. We describe a method of knowledge specification based on a structured and systematic analysis of text allowing detailed specification of a decision tree. We use decision tables to validate the decision algorithm and decision trees to specify and represent this algorithm, along with elementary messages of recommendation. Edition tools are also necessary to facilitate the process of validation and workflow between expert physicians who will validate the specified knowledge and computer scientist who will encode the specified knowledge in a guide-line model. Applied to eleven different guidelines issued by an official agency, the method allows a quick and valid computerization and integration in a larger decision support system called EsPeR (Personalized Estimate of Risks). The quality of the text guidelines is however still to be developed further. The method used for computerization could help to define a framework usable at the initial step of guideline development in order to produce guidelines ready for electronic implementation.

Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

Modelling the risk-benefit impact of H1N1 influenza vaccines.

PubMed

Phillips, Lawrence D; Fasolo, Barbara; Zafiropoulous, Nikolaos; Eichler, Hans-Georg; Ehmann, Falk; Jekerle, Veronika; Kramarz, Piotr; Nicoll, Angus; Lönngren, Thomas

2013-08-01

Shortly after the H1N1 influenza virus reached pandemic status in June 2009, the benefit-risk project team at the European Medicines Agency recognized this presented a research opportunity for testing the usefulness of a decision analysis model in deliberations about approving vaccines soon based on limited data or waiting for more data. Undertaken purely as a research exercise, the model was not connected to the ongoing assessment by the European Medicines Agency, which approved the H1N1 vaccines on 25 September 2009. A decision tree model constructed initially on 1 September 2009, and slightly revised subsequently as new data were obtained, represented an end-of-September or end-of-October approval of vaccines. The model showed combinations of uncertain events, the severity of the disease and the vaccines' efficacy and safety, leading to estimates of numbers of deaths and serious disabilities. The group based their probability assessments on available information and background knowledge about vaccines and similar pandemics in the past. Weighting the numbers by their joint probabilities for all paths through the decision tree gave a weighted average for a September decision of 216 500 deaths and serious disabilities, and for a decision delayed to October of 291 547, showing that an early decision was preferable. The process of constructing the model facilitated communications among the group's members and led to new insights for several participants, while its robustness built confidence in the decision. These findings suggest that models might be helpful to regulators, as they form their preferences during the process of deliberation and debate, and more generally, for public health issues when decision makers face considerable uncertainty.

Evolutionary Algorithm Based Automated Reverse Engineering and Defect Discovery

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-21

a previous application of a GP as a data mining function to evolve fuzzy decision trees symbolically [3-5], the terminal set consisted of fuzzy...of input and output information is required. In the case of fuzzy decision trees, the database represented a collection of scenarios about which the...fuzzy decision tree to be evolved would make decisions . The database also had entries created by experts representing decisions about the scenarios

A Decision Tree for Nonmetric Sex Assessment from the Skull.

PubMed

Langley, Natalie R; Dudzik, Beatrix; Cloutier, Alesia

2018-01-01

This study uses five well-documented cranial nonmetric traits (glabella, mastoid process, mental eminence, supraorbital margin, and nuchal crest) and one additional trait (zygomatic extension) to develop a validated decision tree for sex assessment. The decision tree was built and cross-validated on a sample of 293 U.S. White individuals from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. Ordinal scores from the six traits were analyzed using the partition modeling option in JMP Pro 12. A holdout sample of 50 skulls was used to test the model. The most accurate decision tree includes three variables: glabella, zygomatic extension, and mastoid process. This decision tree yielded 93.5% accuracy on the training sample, 94% on the cross-validated sample, and 96% on a holdout validation sample. Linear weighted kappa statistics indicate acceptable agreement among observers for these variables. Mental eminence should be avoided, and definitions and figures should be referenced carefully to score nonmetric traits. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

PubMed

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

CorRECTreatment: A Web-based Decision Support Tool for Rectal Cancer Treatment that Uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree

PubMed Central

Karakülah, G.; Dicle, O.; Sökmen, S.; Çelikoğlu, C.C.

2015-01-01

Summary Background The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians’ decision making. Objective The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. Methods The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. Results In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. Conclusions The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options. PMID:25848413

CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

PubMed

Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

2015-01-01

The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

Application of Decision Tree to Obtain Optimal Operation Rules for Reservoir Flood Control Considering Sediment Desilting-Case Study of Tseng Wen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ShiouWei, L.

2014-12-01

Reservoirs are the most important water resources facilities in Taiwan.However,due to the steep slope and fragile geological conditions in the mountain area,storm events usually cause serious debris flow and flood,and the flood then will flush large amount of sediment into reservoirs.The sedimentation caused by flood has great impact on the reservoirs life.Hence,how to operate a reservoir during flood events to increase the efficiency of sediment desilting without risk the reservoir safety and impact the water supply afterward is a crucial issue in Taiwan. 　Therefore,this study developed a novel optimization planning model for reservoir flood operation considering flood control and sediment desilting,and proposed easy to use operating rules represented by decision trees.The decision trees rules have considered flood mitigation,water supply and sediment desilting.The optimal planning model computes the optimal reservoir release for each flood event that minimum water supply impact and maximum sediment desilting without risk the reservoir safety.Beside the optimal flood operation planning model,this study also proposed decision tree based flood operating rules that were trained by the multiple optimal reservoir releases to synthesis flood scenarios.The synthesis flood scenarios consists of various synthesis storm events,reservoir's initial storage and target storages at the end of flood operating. 　Comparing the results operated by the decision tree operation rules(DTOR) with that by historical operation for Krosa Typhoon in 2007,the DTOR removed sediment 15.4% more than that of historical operation with reservoir storage only8.38×106m3 less than that of historical operation.For Jangmi Typhoon in 2008,the DTOR removed sediment 24.4% more than that of historical operation with reservoir storage only 7.58×106m3 less than that of historical operation.The results show that the proposed DTOR model can increase the sediment desilting efficiency and extend the reservoir life.

Spam comments prediction using stacking with ensemble learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmood, Arif; On, Byung-Won; Lee, Ingyu; Ashraf, Imran; Choi, Gyu Sang

2018-01-01

Illusive comments of product or services are misleading for people in decision making. The current methodologies to predict deceptive comments are concerned for feature designing with single training model. Indigenous features have ability to show some linguistic phenomena but are hard to reveal the latent semantic meaning of the comments. We propose a prediction model on general features of documents using stacking with ensemble learning. Term Frequency/Inverse Document Frequency (TF/IDF) features are inputs to stacking of Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Trees and the outputs of the base learners are encapsulated with decision tree to make final training of the model. The results exhibits that our approach gives the accuracy of 92.19% which outperform the state-of-the-art method.

Comparing wavefront-optimized, wavefront-guided and topography-guided laser vision correction: clinical outcomes using an objective decision tree.

PubMed

Stonecipher, Karl; Parrish, Joseph; Stonecipher, Megan

2018-05-18

This review is intended to update and educate the reader on the currently available options for laser vision correction, more specifically, laser-assisted in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). In addition, some related clinical outcomes data from over 1000 cases performed over a 1-year are presented to highlight some differences between the various treatment profiles currently available including the rapidity of visual recovery. The cases in question were performed on the basis of a decision tree to segregate patients on the basis of anatomical, topographic and aberrometry findings; the decision tree was formulated based on the data available in some of the reviewed articles. Numerous recent studies reported in the literature provide data related to the risks and benefits of LASIK; alternatives to a laser refractive procedure are also discussed. The results from these studies have been used to prepare a decision tree to assist the surgeon in choosing the best option for the patient based on the data from several standard preoperative diagnostic tests. The data presented here should aid surgeons in understanding the effects of currently available LASIK treatment profiles. Surgeons should also be able to appreciate how the findings were used to create a decision tree to help choose the most appropriate treatment profile for patients. Finally, the retrospective evaluation of clinical outcomes based on the decision tree should provide surgeons with a realistic expectation for their own outcomes should they adopt such a decision tree in their own practice.

Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities.

PubMed

Moon, Mikyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)-data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89 * ). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, "injuries to the hip and thigh" was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data.

An effective method on pornographic images realtime recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Baosong; Lv, Xueqiang; Wang, Tao; Wang, Chengrui

2013-03-01

In this paper, skin detection, texture filtering and face detection are used to extract feature on an image library, training them with the decision tree arithmetic to create some rules as a decision tree classifier to distinguish an unknown image. Experiment based on more than twenty thousand images, the precision rate can get 76.21% when testing on 13025 pornographic images and elapsed time is less than 0.2s. This experiment shows it has a good popularity. Among the steps mentioned above, proposing a new skin detection model which called irregular polygon region skin detection model based on YCbCr color space. This skin detection model can lower the false detection rate on skin detection. A new method called sequence region labeling on binary connected area can calculate features on connected area, it is faster and needs less memory than other recursive methods.

Ontology based decision system for breast cancer diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trabelsi Ben Ameur, Soumaya; Cloppet, Florence; Wendling, Laurent; Sellami, Dorra

2018-04-01

In this paper, we focus on analysis and diagnosis of breast masses inspired by expert concepts and rules. Accordingly, a Bag of Words is built based on the ontology of breast cancer diagnosis, accurately described in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. To fill the gap between low level knowledge and expert concepts, a semantic annotation is developed using a machine learning tool. Then, breast masses are classified into benign or malignant according to expert rules implicitly modeled with a set of classifiers (KNN, ANN, SVM and Decision Tree). This semantic context of analysis offers a frame where we can include external factors and other meta-knowledge such as patient risk factors as well as exploiting more than one modality. Based on MRI and DECEDM modalities, our developed system leads a recognition rate of 99.7% with Decision Tree where an improvement of 24.7 % is obtained owing to semantic analysis.

Using Unix system auditing for detecting network intrusions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christensen, M.J.

1993-03-01

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) are designed to detect actions of individuals who use computer resources without authorization as well as legitimate users who exceed their privileges. This paper describes a novel approach to IDS research, namely a decision aiding approach to intrusion detection. The introduction of a decision tree represents the logical steps necessary to distinguish and identify different types of attacks. This tool, the Intrusion Decision Aiding Tool (IDAT), utilizes IDS-based attack models and standard Unix audit data. Since attacks have certain characteristics and are based on already developed signature attack models, experienced and knowledgeable Unix system administrators knowmore » what to look for in system audit logs to determine if a system has been attacked. Others, however, are usually less able to recognize common signatures of unauthorized access. Users can traverse the tree using available audit data displayed by IDAT and general knowledge they possess to reach a conclusion regarding suspicious activity. IDAT is an easy-to-use window based application that gathers, analyzes, and displays pertinent system data according to Unix attack characteristics. IDAT offers a more practical approach and allows the user to make an informed decision regarding suspicious activity.« less

The prediction of breast cancer biopsy outcomes using two CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elter, M.; Schulz-Wendtland, R.; Wittenberg, T.

2007-11-15

Mammography is the most effective method for breast cancer screening available today. However, the low positive predictive value of breast biopsy resulting from mammogram interpretation leads to approximately 70% unnecessary biopsies with benign outcomes. To reduce the high number of unnecessary breast biopsies, several computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been proposed in the last several years. These systems help physicians in their decision to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. We present two novel CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process to predictmore » breast biopsy outcomes from BI-RADS findings. An intelligible reasoning process is an important requirement for the acceptance of CAD systems by physicians. The first approach induces a global model based on decison-tree learning. The second approach is based on case-based reasoning and applies an entropic similarity measure. We have evaluated the performance of both CAD approaches on two large publicly available mammography reference databases using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, bootstrap sampling, and the ANOVA statistical significance test. Both approaches outperform the diagnosis decisions of the physicians. Hence, both systems have the potential to reduce the number of unnecessary breast biopsies in clinical practice. A comparison of the performance of the proposed decision tree and CBR approaches with a state of the art approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN) shows that the CBR approach performs slightly better than the ANN approach, which in turn results in slightly better performance than the decision-tree approach. The differences are statistically significant (p value <0.001). On 2100 masses extracted from the DDSM database, the CRB approach for example resulted in an area under the ROC curve of A(z)=0.89{+-}0.01, the decision-tree approach in A(z)=0.87{+-}0.01, and the ANN approach in A(z)=0.88{+-}0.01.« less

Modeling individual tree survial

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2016-01-01

Information provided by growth and yield models is the basis for forest managers to make decisions on how to manage their forests. Among different types of growth models, whole-stand models offer predictions at stand level, whereas individual-tree models give detailed information at tree level. The well-known logistic regression is commonly used to predict tree...

hERG blocking potential of acids and zwitterions characterized by three thresholds for acidity, size and reactivity.

PubMed

Nikolov, Nikolai G; Dybdahl, Marianne; Jónsdóttir, Svava Ó; Wedebye, Eva B

2014-11-01

Ionization is a key factor in hERG K(+) channel blocking, and acids and zwitterions are known to be less probable hERG blockers than bases and neutral compounds. However, a considerable number of acidic compounds block hERG, and the physico-chemical attributes which discriminate acidic blockers from acidic non-blockers have not been fully elucidated. We propose a rule for prediction of hERG blocking by acids and zwitterionic ampholytes based on thresholds for only three descriptors related to acidity, size and reactivity. The training set of 153 acids and zwitterionic ampholytes was predicted with a concordance of 91% by a decision tree based on the rule. Two external validations were performed with sets of 35 and 48 observations, respectively, both showing concordances of 91%. In addition, a global QSAR model of hERG blocking was constructed based on a large diverse training set of 1374 chemicals covering all ionization classes, externally validated showing high predictivity and compared to the decision tree. The decision tree was found to be superior for the acids and zwitterionic ampholytes classes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

2010-09-01

We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

Evaluation with Decision Trees of Efficacy and Safety of Semirigid Ureteroscopy in the Treatment of Proximal Ureteral Calculi.

PubMed

Sancak, Eyup Burak; Kılınç, Muhammet Fatih; Yücebaş, Sait Can

2017-01-01

The decision on the choice of proximal ureteral stone therapy depends on many factors, and sometimes urologists have difficulty in choosing the treatment option. This study is aimed at evaluating the factors affecting the success of semirigid ureterorenoscopy (URS) using the "decision tree" method. From January 2005 to November 2015, the data of consecutive patients treated for proximal ureteral stone were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 920 patients with proximal ureteral stone treated with semirigid URS were included in the study. All statistically significant attributes were tested using the decision tree method. The model created using decision tree had a sensitivity of 0.993 and an accuracy of 0.857. While URS treatment was successful in 752 patients (81.7%), it was unsuccessful in 168 patients (18.3%). According to the decision tree method, the most important factor affecting the success of URS is whether the stone is impacted to the ureteral wall. The second most important factor affecting treatment was intramural stricture requiring dilatation if the stone is impacted, and the size of the stone if not impacted. Our study suggests that the impacted stone, intramural stricture requiring dilatation and stone size may have a significant effect on the success rate of semirigid URS for proximal ureteral stone. Further studies with population-based and longitudinal design should be conducted to confirm this finding. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) project.

PubMed

Alghamdi, Manal; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Keteyian, Steven; Brawner, Clinton; Ehrman, Jonathan; Sakr, Sherif

2017-01-01

Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Identifying Risk Factors for Drug Use in an Iranian Treatment Sample: A Prediction Approach Using Decision Trees.

PubMed

Amirabadizadeh, Alireza; Nezami, Hossein; Vaughn, Michael G; Nakhaee, Samaneh; Mehrpour, Omid

2018-05-12

Substance abuse exacts considerable social and health care burdens throughout the world. The aim of this study was to create a prediction model to better identify risk factors for drug use. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in South Khorasan Province, Iran. Of the total of 678 eligible subjects, 70% (n: 474) were randomly selected to provide a training set for constructing decision tree and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models. The remaining 30% (n: 204) were employed in a holdout sample to test the performance of the decision tree and MLR models. Predictive performance of different models was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the testing set. Independent variables were selected from demographic characteristics and history of drug use. For the decision tree model, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying people at risk for drug abuse were 66% and 75%, respectively, while the MLR model was somewhat less effective at 60% and 73%. Key independent variables in the analyses included first substance experience, age at first drug use, age, place of residence, history of cigarette use, and occupational and marital status. While study findings are exploratory and lack generalizability they do suggest that the decision tree model holds promise as an effective classification approach for identifying risk factors for drug use. Convergent with prior research in Western contexts is that age of drug use initiation was a critical factor predicting a substance use disorder.

A Comparison of Four Software Programs for Implementing Decision Analytic Cost-Effectiveness Models.

PubMed

Hollman, Chase; Paulden, Mike; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; McCabe, Christopher

2017-08-01

The volume and technical complexity of both academic and commercial research using decision analytic modelling has increased rapidly over the last two decades. The range of software programs used for their implementation has also increased, but it remains true that a small number of programs account for the vast majority of cost-effectiveness modelling work. We report a comparison of four software programs: TreeAge Pro, Microsoft Excel, R and MATLAB. Our focus is on software commonly used for building Markov models and decision trees to conduct cohort simulations, given their predominance in the published literature around cost-effectiveness modelling. Our comparison uses three qualitative criteria as proposed by Eddy et al.: "transparency and validation", "learning curve" and "capability". In addition, we introduce the quantitative criterion of processing speed. We also consider the cost of each program to academic users and commercial users. We rank the programs based on each of these criteria. We find that, whilst Microsoft Excel and TreeAge Pro are good programs for educational purposes and for producing the types of analyses typically required by health technology assessment agencies, the efficiency and transparency advantages of programming languages such as MATLAB and R become increasingly valuable when more complex analyses are required.

Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

2015-06-01

Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

Building of fuzzy decision trees using ID3 algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begenova, S. B.; Avdeenko, T. V.

2018-05-01

Decision trees are widely used in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Such popularity is due to the fact that with the help of decision trees graphic models, text rules can be built and they are easily understood by the final user. Because of the inaccuracy of observations, uncertainties, the data, collected in the environment, often take an unclear form. Therefore, fuzzy decision trees becoming popular in the field of machine learning. This article presents a method that includes the features of the two above-mentioned approaches: a graphical representation of the rules system in the form of a tree and a fuzzy representation of the data. The approach uses such advantages as high comprehensibility of decision trees and the ability to cope with inaccurate and uncertain information in fuzzy representation. The received learning method is suitable for classifying problems with both numerical and symbolic features. In the article, solution illustrations and numerical results are given.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data.

PubMed

Barros, Rodrigo C; Winck, Ana T; Machado, Karina S; Basgalupp, Márcio P; de Carvalho, André C P L F; Ruiz, Duncan D; de Souza, Osmar Norberto

2012-11-21

This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. Results The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. Conclusions We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor. PMID:23171000

Detection of clinical mastitis with sensor data from automatic milking systems is improved by using decision-tree induction.

PubMed

Kamphuis, C; Mollenhorst, H; Heesterbeek, J A P; Hogeveen, H

2010-08-01

The objective was to develop and validate a clinical mastitis (CM) detection model by means of decision-tree induction. For farmers milking with an automatic milking system (AMS), it is desirable that the detection model has a high level of sensitivity (Se), especially for more severe cases of CM, at a very high specificity (Sp). In addition, an alert for CM should be generated preferably at the quarter milking (QM) at which the CM infection is visible for the first time. Data were collected from 9 Dutch dairy herds milking automatically during a 2.5-yr period. Data included sensor data (electrical conductivity, color, and yield) at the QM level and visual observations of quarters with CM recorded by the farmers. Visual observations of quarters with CM were combined with sensor data of the most recent automatic milking recorded for that same quarter, within a 24-h time window before the visual assessment time. Sensor data of 3.5 million QM were collected, of which 348 QM were combined with a CM observation. Data were divided into a training set, including two-thirds of all data, and a test set. Cows in the training set were not included in the test set and vice versa. A decision-tree model was trained using only clear examples of healthy (n=24,717) or diseased (n=243) QM. The model was tested on 105 QM with CM and a random sample of 50,000 QM without CM. While keeping the Se at a level comparable to that of models currently used by AMS, the decision-tree model was able to decrease the number of false-positive alerts by more than 50%. At an Sp of 99%, 40% of the CM cases were detected. Sixty-four percent of the severe CM cases were detected and only 12.5% of the CM that were scored as watery milk. The Se increased considerably from 40% to 66.7% when the time window increased from less than 24h before the CM observation, to a time window from 24h before to 24h after the CM observation. Even at very wide time windows, however, it was impossible to reach an Se of 100%. This indicates the inability to detect all CM cases based on sensor data alone. Sensitivity levels varied largely when the decision tree was validated per herd. This trend was confirmed when decision trees were trained using data from 8 herds and tested on data from the ninth herd. This indicates that when using the decision tree as a generic CM detection model in practice, some herds will continue having difficulties in detecting CM using mastitis alert lists, whereas others will perform well. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cloud Detection from Satellite Imagery: A Comparison of Expert-Generated and Automatically-Generated Decision Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiffman, Smadar

2004-01-01

Automated cloud detection and tracking is an important step in assessing global climate change via remote sensing. Cloud masks, which indicate whether individual pixels depict clouds, are included in many of the data products that are based on data acquired on- board earth satellites. Many cloud-mask algorithms have the form of decision trees, which employ sequential tests that scientists designed based on empirical astrophysics studies and astrophysics simulations. Limitations of existing cloud masks restrict our ability to accurately track changes in cloud patterns over time. In this study we explored the potential benefits of automatically-learned decision trees for detecting clouds from images acquired using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument on board the NOAA-14 weather satellite of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We constructed three decision trees for a sample of 8km-daily AVHRR data from 2000 using a decision-tree learning procedure provided within MATLAB(R), and compared the accuracy of the decision trees to the accuracy of the cloud mask. We used ground observations collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy Systems S COOL project as the gold standard. For the sample data, the accuracy of automatically learned decision trees was greater than the accuracy of the cloud masks included in the AVHRR data product.

Spatial distribution of block falls using volumetric GIS-decision-tree models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, C.

2010-10-01

Block falls are considered a significant aspect of surficial instability contributing to losses in land and socio-economic aspects through their damaging effects to natural and human environments. This paper predicts and maps the geographic distribution and volumes of block falls in central Lebanon using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned trees). Eleven terrain parameters (lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, soil type, distance to drainage line, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, land cover/use, and proximity to roads) were generated to statistically explain the occurrence of block falls. The latter were discriminated using SPOT4 satellite imageries, and their dimensions were determined during field surveys. The un-pruned tree model based on all considered parameters explained 86% of the variability in field block fall measurements. Once pruned, it classifies 50% in block falls' volumes by selecting just four parameters (lithology, slope gradient, soil type, and land cover/use). Both tree models (un-pruned and pruned) were converted to quantitative 1:50,000 block falls' maps with different classes; starting from Nil (no block falls) to more than 4000 m 3. These maps are fairly matching with coincidence value equal to 45%; however, both can be used to prioritize the choice of specific zones for further measurement and modeling, as well as for land-use management. The proposed tree models are relatively simple, and may also be applied to other areas (i.e. the choice of un-pruned or pruned model is related to the availability of terrain parameters in a given area).

Determinants of farmers' tree planting investment decision as a degraded landscape management strategy in the central highlands of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gessesse, B.; Bewket, W.; Bräuning, A.

2015-11-01

Land degradation due to lack of sustainable land management practices are one of the critical challenges in many developing countries including Ethiopia. This study explores the major determinants of farm level tree planting decision as a land management strategy in a typical framing and degraded landscape of the Modjo watershed, Ethiopia. The main data were generated from household surveys and analysed using descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model. The model significantly predicted farmers' tree planting decision (Chi-square = 37.29, df = 15, P<0.001). Besides, the computed significant value of the model suggests that all the considered predictor variables jointly influenced the farmers' decision to plant trees as a land management strategy. In this regard, the finding of the study show that local land-users' willingness to adopt tree growing decision is a function of a wide range of biophysical, institutional, socioeconomic and household level factors, however, the likelihood of household size, productive labour force availability, the disparity of schooling age, level of perception of the process of deforestation and the current land tenure system have positively and significantly influence on tree growing investment decisions in the study watershed. Eventually, the processes of land use conversion and land degradation are serious which in turn have had adverse effects on agricultural productivity, local food security and poverty trap nexus. Hence, devising sustainable and integrated land management policy options and implementing them would enhance ecological restoration and livelihood sustainability in the study watershed.

Determinants of farmers' tree-planting investment decisions as a degraded landscape management strategy in the central highlands of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gessesse, Berhan; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Bräuning, Achim

2016-04-01

Land degradation due to lack of sustainable land management practices is one of the critical challenges in many developing countries including Ethiopia. This study explored the major determinants of farm-level tree-planting decisions as a land management strategy in a typical farming and degraded landscape of the Modjo watershed, Ethiopia. The main data were generated from household surveys and analysed using descriptive statistics and a binary logistic regression model. The model significantly predicted farmers' tree-planting decisions (χ2 = 37.29, df = 15, P < 0.001). Besides, the computed significant value of the model revealed that all the considered predictor variables jointly influenced the farmers' decisions to plant trees as a land management strategy. The findings of the study demonstrated that the adoption of tree-growing decisions by local land users was a function of a wide range of biophysical, institutional, socioeconomic and household-level factors. In this regard, the likelihood of household size, productive labour force availability, the disparity of schooling age, level of perception of the process of deforestation and the current land tenure system had a critical influence on tree-growing investment decisions in the study watershed. Eventually, the processes of land-use conversion and land degradation were serious, which in turn have had adverse effects on agricultural productivity, local food security and poverty trap nexus. Hence, the study recommended that devising and implementing sustainable land management policy options would enhance ecological restoration and livelihood sustainability in the study watershed.

Protein attributes contribute to halo-stability, bioinformatics approach

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Halophile proteins can tolerate high salt concentrations. Understanding halophilicity features is the first step toward engineering halostable crops. To this end, we examined protein features contributing to the halo-toleration of halophilic organisms. We compared more than 850 features for halophilic and non-halophilic proteins with various screening, clustering, decision tree, and generalized rule induction models to search for patterns that code for halo-toleration. Up to 251 protein attributes selected by various attribute weighting algorithms as important features contribute to halo-stability; from them 14 attributes selected by 90% of models and the count of hydrogen gained the highest value (1.0) in 70% of attribute weighting models, showing the importance of this attribute in feature selection modeling. The other attributes mostly were the frequencies of di-peptides. No changes were found in the numbers of groups when K-Means and TwoStep clustering modeling were performed on datasets with or without feature selection filtering. Although the depths of induced trees were not high, the accuracies of trees were higher than 94% and the frequency of hydrophobic residues pointed as the most important feature to build trees. The performance evaluation of decision tree models had the same values and the best correctness percentage recorded with the Exhaustive CHAID and CHAID models. We did not find any significant difference in the percent of correctness, performance evaluation, and mean correctness of various decision tree models with or without feature selection. For the first time, we analyzed the performance of different screening, clustering, and decision tree algorithms for discriminating halophilic and non-halophilic proteins and the results showed that amino acid composition can be used to discriminate between halo-tolerant and halo-sensitive proteins. PMID:21592393

Prediction of the compression ratio for municipal solid waste using decision tree.

PubMed

Heshmati R, Ali Akbar; Mokhtari, Maryam; Shakiba Rad, Saeed

2014-01-01

The compression ratio of municipal solid waste (MSW) is an essential parameter for evaluation of waste settlement and landfill design. However, no appropriate model has been proposed to estimate the waste compression ratio so far. In this study, a decision tree method was utilized to predict the waste compression ratio (C'c). The tree was constructed using Quinlan's M5 algorithm. A reliable database retrieved from the literature was used to develop a practical model that relates C'c to waste composition and properties, including dry density, dry weight water content, and percentage of biodegradable organic waste using the decision tree method. The performance of the developed model was examined in terms of different statistical criteria, including correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean bias error, recommended by researchers. The obtained results demonstrate that the suggested model is able to evaluate the compression ratio of MSW effectively.

Prevalence and Determinants of Preterm Birth in Tehran, Iran: A Comparison between Logistic Regression and Decision Tree Methods.

PubMed

Amini, Payam; Maroufizadeh, Saman; Samani, Reza Omani; Hamidi, Omid; Sepidarkish, Mahdi

2017-06-01

Preterm birth (PTB) is a leading cause of neonatal death and the second biggest cause of death in children under five years of age. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of PTB and its associated factors using logistic regression and decision tree classification methods. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 4,415 pregnant women in Tehran, Iran, from July 6-21, 2015. Data were collected by a researcher-developed questionnaire through interviews with mothers and review of their medical records. To evaluate the accuracy of the logistic regression and decision tree methods, several indices such as sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve were used. The PTB rate was 5.5% in this study. The logistic regression outperformed the decision tree for the classification of PTB based on risk factors. Logistic regression showed that multiple pregnancies, mothers with preeclampsia, and those who conceived with assisted reproductive technology had an increased risk for PTB ( p < 0.05). Identifying and training mothers at risk as well as improving prenatal care may reduce the PTB rate. We also recommend that statisticians utilize the logistic regression model for the classification of risk groups for PTB.

Predicting skin sensitisation using a decision tree integrated testing strategy with an in silico model and in chemico/in vitro assays.

PubMed

Macmillan, Donna S; Canipa, Steven J; Chilton, Martyn L; Williams, Richard V; Barber, Christopher G

2016-04-01

There is a pressing need for non-animal methods to predict skin sensitisation potential and a number of in chemico and in vitro assays have been designed with this in mind. However, some compounds can fall outside the applicability domain of these in chemico/in vitro assays and may not be predicted accurately. Rule-based in silico models such as Derek Nexus are expert-derived from animal and/or human data and the mechanism-based alert domain can take a number of factors into account (e.g. abiotic/biotic activation). Therefore, Derek Nexus may be able to predict for compounds outside the applicability domain of in chemico/in vitro assays. To this end, an integrated testing strategy (ITS) decision tree using Derek Nexus and a maximum of two assays (from DPRA, KeratinoSens, LuSens, h-CLAT and U-SENS) was developed. Generally, the decision tree improved upon other ITS evaluated in this study with positive and negative predictivity calculated as 86% and 81%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that an ITS using an in silico model such as Derek Nexus with a maximum of two in chemico/in vitro assays can predict the sensitising potential of a number of chemicals, including those outside the applicability domain of existing non-animal assays. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A decision-tree model to detect post-calving diseases based on rumination, activity, milk yield, BW and voluntary visits to the milking robot.

PubMed

Steensels, M; Antler, A; Bahr, C; Berckmans, D; Maltz, E; Halachmi, I

2016-09-01

Early detection of post-calving health problems is critical for dairy operations. Separating sick cows from the herd is important, especially in robotic-milking dairy farms, where searching for a sick cow can disturb the other cows' routine. The objectives of this study were to develop and apply a behaviour- and performance-based health-detection model to post-calving cows in a robotic-milking dairy farm, with the aim of detecting sick cows based on available commercial sensors. The study was conducted in an Israeli robotic-milking dairy farm with 250 Israeli-Holstein cows. All cows were equipped with rumination- and neck-activity sensors. Milk yield, visits to the milking robot and BW were recorded in the milking robot. A decision-tree model was developed on a calibration data set (historical data of the 10 months before the study) and was validated on the new data set. The decision model generated a probability of being sick for each cow. The model was applied once a week just before the veterinarian performed the weekly routine post-calving health check. The veterinarian's diagnosis served as a binary reference for the model (healthy-sick). The overall accuracy of the model was 78%, with a specificity of 87% and a sensitivity of 69%, suggesting its practical value.

Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

PubMed

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.

Thematic and Spatial Resolutions Affect Model-Based Predictions of Tree Species Distribution

PubMed Central

Liang, Yu; He, Hong S.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Wu, ZhiWei

2013-01-01

Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution. PMID:23861828

Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

PubMed

Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

2017-08-16

The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

Comparisons between physics-based, engineering, and statistical learning models for outdoor sound propagation.

PubMed

Hart, Carl R; Reznicek, Nathan J; Wilson, D Keith; Pettit, Chris L; Nykaza, Edward T

2016-05-01

Many outdoor sound propagation models exist, ranging from highly complex physics-based simulations to simplified engineering calculations, and more recently, highly flexible statistical learning methods. Several engineering and statistical learning models are evaluated by using a particular physics-based model, namely, a Crank-Nicholson parabolic equation (CNPE), as a benchmark. Narrowband transmission loss values predicted with the CNPE, based upon a simulated data set of meteorological, boundary, and source conditions, act as simulated observations. In the simulated data set sound propagation conditions span from downward refracting to upward refracting, for acoustically hard and soft boundaries, and low frequencies. Engineering models used in the comparisons include the ISO 9613-2 method, Harmonoise, and Nord2000 propagation models. Statistical learning methods used in the comparisons include bagged decision tree regression, random forest regression, boosting regression, and artificial neural network models. Computed skill scores are relative to sound propagation in a homogeneous atmosphere over a rigid ground. Overall skill scores for the engineering noise models are 0.6%, -7.1%, and 83.8% for the ISO 9613-2, Harmonoise, and Nord2000 models, respectively. Overall skill scores for the statistical learning models are 99.5%, 99.5%, 99.6%, and 99.6% for bagged decision tree, random forest, boosting, and artificial neural network regression models, respectively.

A Search for the tt¯H (H → bb) Large Hadron Collider with the atlas detector using a matrix element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basye, Austin T.

A matrix element method analysis of the Standard Model Higgs boson, produced in association with two top quarks decaying to the lepton-plus-jets channel is presented. Based on 20.3 fb--1 of s=8 TeV data, produced at the Large Hadron Collider and collected by the ATLAS detector, this analysis utilizes multiple advanced techniques to search for ttH signatures with a 125 GeV Higgs boson decaying to two b -quarks. After categorizing selected events based on their jet and b-tag multiplicities, signal rich regions are analyzed using the matrix element method. Resulting variables are then propagated to two parallel multivariate analyses utilizing Neural Networks and Boosted Decision Trees respectively. As no significant excess is found, an observed (expected) limit of 3.4 (2.2) times the Standard Model cross-section is determined at 95% confidence, using the CLs method, for the Neural Network analysis. For the Boosted Decision Tree analysis, an observed (expected) limit of 5.2 (2.7) times the Standard Model cross-section is determined at 95% confidence, using the CLs method. Corresponding unconstrained fits of the Higgs boson signal strength to the observed data result in the measured signal cross-section to Standard Model cross-section prediction of mu = 1.2 +/- 1.3(total) +/- 0.7(stat.) for the Neural Network analysis, and mu = 2.9 +/- 1.4(total) +/- 0.8(stat.) for the Boosted Decision Tree analysis.

[RS estimation of inventory parameters and carbon storage of moso bamboo forest based on synergistic use of object-based image analysis and decision tree].

PubMed

Du, Hua Qiang; Sun, Xiao Yan; Han, Ning; Mao, Fang Jie

2017-10-01

By synergistically using the object-based image analysis (OBIA) and the classification and regression tree (CART) methods, the distribution information, the indexes (including diameter at breast, tree height, and crown closure), and the aboveground carbon storage (AGC) of moso bamboo forest in Shanchuan Town, Anji County, Zhejiang Province were investigated. The results showed that the moso bamboo forest could be accurately delineated by integrating the multi-scale ima ge segmentation in OBIA technique and CART, which connected the image objects at various scales, with a pretty good producer's accuracy of 89.1%. The investigation of indexes estimated by regression tree model that was constructed based on the features extracted from the image objects reached normal or better accuracy, in which the crown closure model archived the best estimating accuracy of 67.9%. The estimating accuracy of diameter at breast and tree height was relatively low, which was consistent with conclusion that estimating diameter at breast and tree height using optical remote sensing could not achieve satisfactory results. Estimation of AGC reached relatively high accuracy, and accuracy of the region of high value achieved above 80%.

Development and acceptability testing of decision trees for self-management of prosthetic socket fit in adults with lower limb amputation.

PubMed

Lee, Daniel Joseph; Veneri, Diana A

2018-05-01

The most common complaint lower limb prosthesis users report is inadequacy of a proper socket fit. Adjustments to the residual limb-socket interface can be made by the prosthesis user without consultation of a clinician in many scenarios through skilled self-management. Decision trees guide prosthesis wearers through the self-management process, empowering them to rectify fit issues, or referring them to a clinician when necessary. This study examines the development and acceptability testing of patient-centered decision trees for lower limb prosthesis users. Decision trees underwent a four-stage process: literature review and expert consultation, designing, two-rounds of expert panel review and revisions, and target audience testing. Fifteen lower limb prosthesis users (average age 61 years) reviewed the decision trees and completed an acceptability questionnaire. Participants reported agreement of 80% or above in five of the eight questions related to acceptability of the decision trees. Disagreement was related to the level of experience of the respondent. Decision trees were found to be easy to use, illustrate correct solutions to common issues, and have terminology consistent with that of a new prosthesis user. Some users with greater than 1.5 years of experience would not use the decision trees based on their own self-management skills. Implications for Rehabilitation Discomfort of the residual limb-prosthetic socket interface is the most common reason for clinician visits. Prosthesis users can use decision trees to guide them through the process of obtaining a proper socket fit independently. Newer users may benefit from using the decision trees more than experienced users.

Does Sentinel multi sensor data offer synergy in Improving Accuracy of Aboveground Biomass Estimate of Dense Tropical Forest? - Utility of Decision Tree Based Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S. M.; Behera, M. D.

2017-12-01

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important factor for preparation of global policy making decisions to tackle the impact of climate change. Several previous studies has concluded that remote sensing methods are more suitable for estimating forest biomass on regional scale. Among all available remote sensing data and methods, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data in combination with decision tree based machine learning algorithms has shown better promise in estimating higher biomass values. There aren't many studies done for biomass estimation of dense Indian tropical forests with high biomass density. In this study aboveground biomass was estimated for two major tree species, Sal (Shorea robusta) and Teak (Tectona grandis), of Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary, a tropical forest situated in northern India. Biomass was estimated by combining C-band SAR data from Sentinel-1A satellite, vegetation indices produced using Sentinel-2A data and ground inventory plots. Along with SAR backscatter value, SAR texture images were also used as input as earlier studies had found that image texture has a correlation with vegetation biomass. Decision tree based nonlinear machine learning algorithms were used in place of parametric regression models for establishing relationship between fields measured values and remotely sensed parameters. Using random forest model with a combination of vegetation indices with SAR backscatter as predictor variables shows best result for Sal forest, with a coefficient of determination value of 0.71 and a RMSE value of 105.027 t/ha. In teak forest also best result can be found in the same combination but for stochastic gradient boosted model with a coefficient of determination value of 0.6 and a RMSE value of 79.45 t/ha. These results are mostly better than the results of other studies done for similar kind of forests. This study shows that Sentinel series satellite data has exceptional capabilities in estimating dense forest AGB and machine learning algorithms are better means to do so than parametric regression models.

Siting a municipal solid waste disposal facility, part II: the effects of external criteria on the final decision.

PubMed

Korucu, M Kemal; Karademir, Aykan

2014-02-01

The procedure of a multi-criteria decision analysis supported by the geographic information systems was applied to the site selection process of a planning municipal solid waste management practice based on twelve different scenarios. The scenarios included two different decision tree modes and two different weighting models for three different area requirements. The suitability rankings of the suitable sites obtained from the application of the decision procedure for the scenarios were assessed by a factorial experimental design concerning the effect of some external criteria on the final decision of the site selection process. The external criteria used in the factorial experimental design were defined as "Risk perception and approval of stakeholders" and "Visibility". The effects of the presence of these criteria in the decision trees were evaluated in detail. For a quantitative expression of the differentiations observed in the suitability rankings, the ranking data were subjected to ANOVA test after a normalization process. Then the results of these tests were evaluated by Tukey test to measure the effects of external criteria on the final decision. The results of Tukey tests indicated that the involvement of the external criteria into the decision trees produced statistically meaningful differentiations in the suitability rankings. Since the external criteria could cause considerable external costs during the operation of the disposal facilities, the presence of these criteria in the decision tree in addition to the other criteria related to environmental and legislative requisites could prevent subsequent external costs in the first place.

A decision tree model for predicting mediastinal lymph node metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer with F-18 FDG PET/CT.

PubMed

Pak, Kyoungjune; Kim, Keunyoung; Kim, Mi-Hyun; Eom, Jung Seop; Lee, Min Ki; Cho, Jeong Su; Kim, Yun Seong; Kim, Bum Soo; Kim, Seong Jang; Kim, In Joo

2018-01-01

We aimed to develop a decision tree model to improve diagnostic performance of positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) to detect metastatic lymph nodes (LN) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). 115 patients with NSCLC were included in this study. The training dataset included 66 patients. A decision tree model was developed with 9 variables, and validated with 49 patients: short and long diameters of LNs, ratio of short and long diameters, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of LN, mean hounsfield unit, ratio of LN SUVmax and ascending aorta SUVmax (LN/AA), and ratio of LN SUVmax and superior vena cava SUVmax. A total of 301 LNs of 115 patients were evaluated in this study. Nodular calcification was applied as the initial imaging parameter, and LN SUVmax (≥3.95) was assessed as the second. LN/AA (≥2.92) was required to high LN SUVmax. Sensitivity was 50% for training dataset, and 40% for validation dataset. However, specificity was 99.28% for training dataset, and 96.23% for validation dataset. In conclusion, we have developed a new decision tree model for interpreting mediastinal LNs. All LNs with nodular calcification were benign, and LNs with high LN SUVmax and high LN/AA were metastatic Further studies are needed to incorporate subjective parameters and pathologic evaluations into a decision tree model to improve the test performance of PET/CT.

Applying Data Mining Techniques to Extract Hidden Patterns about Breast Cancer Survival in an Iranian Cohort Study.

PubMed

Khalkhali, Hamid Reza; Lotfnezhad Afshar, Hadi; Esnaashari, Omid; Jabbari, Nasrollah

2016-01-01

Breast cancer survival has been analyzed by many standard data mining algorithms. A group of these algorithms belonged to the decision tree category. Ability of the decision tree algorithms in terms of visualizing and formulating of hidden patterns among study variables were main reasons to apply an algorithm from the decision tree category in the current study that has not studied already. The classification and regression trees (CART) was applied to a breast cancer database contained information on 569 patients in 2007-2010. The measurement of Gini impurity used for categorical target variables was utilized. The classification error that is a function of tree size was measured by 10-fold cross-validation experiments. The performance of created model was evaluated by the criteria as accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. The CART model produced a decision tree with 17 nodes, 9 of which were associated with a set of rules. The rules were meaningful clinically. They showed in the if-then format that Stage was the most important variable for predicting breast cancer survival. The scores of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were: 80.3%, 93.5% and 53%, respectively. The current study model as the first one created by the CART was able to extract useful hidden rules from a relatively small size dataset.

Predicting membrane protein types using various decision tree classifiers based on various modes of general PseAAC for imbalanced datasets.

PubMed

Sankari, E Siva; Manimegalai, D

2017-12-21

Predicting membrane protein types is an important and challenging research area in bioinformatics and proteomics. Traditional biophysical methods are used to classify membrane protein types. Due to large exploration of uncharacterized protein sequences in databases, traditional methods are very time consuming, expensive and susceptible to errors. Hence, it is highly desirable to develop a robust, reliable, and efficient method to predict membrane protein types. Imbalanced datasets and large datasets are often handled well by decision tree classifiers. Since imbalanced datasets are taken, the performance of various decision tree classifiers such as Decision Tree (DT), Classification And Regression Tree (CART), C4.5, Random tree, REP (Reduced Error Pruning) tree, ensemble methods such as Adaboost, RUS (Random Under Sampling) boost, Rotation forest and Random forest are analysed. Among the various decision tree classifiers Random forest performs well in less time with good accuracy of 96.35%. Another inference is RUS boost decision tree classifier is able to classify one or two samples in the class with very less samples while the other classifiers such as DT, Adaboost, Rotation forest and Random forest are not sensitive for the classes with fewer samples. Also the performance of decision tree classifiers is compared with SVM (Support Vector Machine) and Naive Bayes classifier. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing School Readiness for a Practice Arrangement Using Decision Tree Methodology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barger, Sara E.

1998-01-01

Questions in a decision-tree address mission, faculty interest, administrative support, and practice plan as a way of assessing arrangements for nursing faculty's clinical practice. Decisions should be based on congruence between the human resource allocation and the reward systems. (SK)

Physico-chemical and biological characterization of anopheline mosquito larval habitats (Diptera: Culicidae): implications for malaria control.

PubMed

Mereta, Seid Tiku; Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Boets, Pieter; Ahmed, Abdulhakim; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Legesse, Worku; De Meester, Luc; Goethals, Peter L M

2013-11-04

A fundamental understanding of the spatial distribution and ecology of mosquito larvae is essential for effective vector control intervention strategies. In this study, data-driven decision tree models, generalized linear models and ordination analysis were used to identify the most important biotic and abiotic factors that affect the occurrence and abundance of mosquito larvae in Southwest Ethiopia. In total, 220 samples were taken at 180 sampling locations during the years 2010 and 2012. Sampling sites were characterized based on physical, chemical and biological attributes. The predictive performance of decision tree models was evaluated based on correctly classified instances (CCI), Cohen's kappa statistic (κ) and the determination coefficient (R2). A conditional analysis was performed on the regression tree models to test the relation between key environmental and biological parameters and the abundance of mosquito larvae. The decision tree model developed for anopheline larvae showed a good model performance (CCI = 84 ± 2%, and κ = 0.66 ± 0.04), indicating that the genus has clear habitat requirements. Anopheline mosquito larvae showed a widespread distribution and especially occurred in small human-made aquatic habitats. Water temperature, canopy cover, emergent vegetation cover, and presence of predators and competitors were found to be the main variables determining the abundance and distribution of anopheline larvae. In contrast, anopheline mosquito larvae were found to be less prominently present in permanent larval habitats. This could be attributed to the high abundance and diversity of natural predators and competitors suppressing the mosquito population densities. The findings of this study suggest that targeting smaller human-made aquatic habitats could result in effective larval control of anopheline mosquitoes in the study area. Controlling the occurrence of mosquito larvae via drainage of permanent wetlands may not be a good management strategy as it negatively affects the occurrence and abundance of mosquito predators and competitors and promotes an increase in anopheline population densities.

Physico-chemical and biological characterization of anopheline mosquito larval habitats (Diptera: Culicidae): implications for malaria control

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A fundamental understanding of the spatial distribution and ecology of mosquito larvae is essential for effective vector control intervention strategies. In this study, data-driven decision tree models, generalized linear models and ordination analysis were used to identify the most important biotic and abiotic factors that affect the occurrence and abundance of mosquito larvae in Southwest Ethiopia. Methods In total, 220 samples were taken at 180 sampling locations during the years 2010 and 2012. Sampling sites were characterized based on physical, chemical and biological attributes. The predictive performance of decision tree models was evaluated based on correctly classified instances (CCI), Cohen’s kappa statistic (κ) and the determination coefficient (R2). A conditional analysis was performed on the regression tree models to test the relation between key environmental and biological parameters and the abundance of mosquito larvae. Results The decision tree model developed for anopheline larvae showed a good model performance (CCI = 84 ± 2%, and κ = 0.66 ± 0.04), indicating that the genus has clear habitat requirements. Anopheline mosquito larvae showed a widespread distribution and especially occurred in small human-made aquatic habitats. Water temperature, canopy cover, emergent vegetation cover, and presence of predators and competitors were found to be the main variables determining the abundance and distribution of anopheline larvae. In contrast, anopheline mosquito larvae were found to be less prominently present in permanent larval habitats. This could be attributed to the high abundance and diversity of natural predators and competitors suppressing the mosquito population densities. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that targeting smaller human-made aquatic habitats could result in effective larval control of anopheline mosquitoes in the study area. Controlling the occurrence of mosquito larvae via drainage of permanent wetlands may not be a good management strategy as it negatively affects the occurrence and abundance of mosquito predators and competitors and promotes an increase in anopheline population densities. PMID:24499518

Development of a diagnostic decision tree for obstructive pulmonary diseases based on real-life data

PubMed Central

in ’t Veen, Johannes C.C.M.; Dekhuijzen, P.N. Richard; van Heijst, Ellen; Kocks, Janwillem W.H.; Muilwijk-Kroes, Jacqueline B.; Chavannes, Niels H.; van der Molen, Thys

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and explore the diagnostic accuracy of a decision tree derived from a large real-life primary care population. Data from 9297 primary care patients (45% male, mean age 53±17 years) with suspicion of an obstructive pulmonary disease was derived from an asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) service where patients were assessed using spirometry, the Asthma Control Questionnaire, the Clinical COPD Questionnaire, history data and medication use. All patients were diagnosed through the Internet by a pulmonologist. The Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection method was used to build the decision tree. The tree was externally validated in another real-life primary care population (n=3215). Our tree correctly diagnosed 79% of the asthma patients, 85% of the COPD patients and 32% of the asthma–COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS) patients. External validation showed a comparable pattern (correct: asthma 78%, COPD 83%, ACOS 24%). Our decision tree is considered to be promising because it was based on real-life primary care patients with a specialist's diagnosis. In most patients the diagnosis could be correctly predicted. Predicting ACOS, however, remained a challenge. The total decision tree can be implemented in computer-assisted diagnostic systems for individual patients. A simplified version of this tree can be used in daily clinical practice as a desk tool. PMID:27730177

Prescriptive models to support decision making in genetics.

PubMed

Pauker, S G; Pauker, S P

1987-01-01

Formal prescriptive models can help patients and clinicians better understand the risks and uncertainties they face and better formulate well-reasoned decisions. Using Bayes rule, the clinician can interpret pedigrees, historical data, physical findings and laboratory data, providing individualized probabilities of various diagnoses and outcomes of pregnancy. With the advent of screening programs for genetic disease, it becomes increasingly important to consider the prior probabilities of disease when interpreting an abnormal screening test result. Decision trees provide a convenient formalism for structuring diagnostic, therapeutic and reproductive decisions; such trees can also enhance communication between clinicians and patients. Utility theory provides a mechanism for patients to understand the choices they face and to communicate their attitudes about potential reproductive outcomes in a manner which encourages the integration of those attitudes into appropriate decisions. Using a decision tree, the relevant probabilities and the patients' utilities, physicians can estimate the relative worth of various medical and reproductive options by calculating the expected utility of each. By performing relevant sensitivity analyses, clinicians and patients can understand the impact of various soft data, including the patients' attitudes toward various health outcomes, on the decision making process. Formal clinical decision analytic models can provide deeper understanding and improved decision making in clinical genetics.

New Splitting Criteria for Decision Trees in Stationary Data Streams.

PubMed

Jaworski, Maciej; Duda, Piotr; Rutkowski, Leszek; Jaworski, Maciej; Duda, Piotr; Rutkowski, Leszek; Rutkowski, Leszek; Duda, Piotr; Jaworski, Maciej

2018-06-01

The most popular tools for stream data mining are based on decision trees. In previous 15 years, all designed methods, headed by the very fast decision tree algorithm, relayed on Hoeffding's inequality and hundreds of researchers followed this scheme. Recently, we have demonstrated that although the Hoeffding decision trees are an effective tool for dealing with stream data, they are a purely heuristic procedure; for example, classical decision trees such as ID3 or CART cannot be adopted to data stream mining using Hoeffding's inequality. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop new algorithms, which are both mathematically justified and characterized by good performance. In this paper, we address this problem by developing a family of new splitting criteria for classification in stationary data streams and investigating their probabilistic properties. The new criteria, derived using appropriate statistical tools, are based on the misclassification error and the Gini index impurity measures. The general division of splitting criteria into two types is proposed. Attributes chosen based on type- splitting criteria guarantee, with high probability, the highest expected value of split measure. Type- criteria ensure that the chosen attribute is the same, with high probability, as it would be chosen based on the whole infinite data stream. Moreover, in this paper, two hybrid splitting criteria are proposed, which are the combinations of single criteria based on the misclassification error and Gini index.

A dynamic fault tree model of a propulsion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Hong; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Meshkat, Leila

2006-01-01

We present a dynamic fault tree model of the benchmark propulsion system, and solve it using Galileo. Dynamic fault trees (DFT) extend traditional static fault trees with special gates to model spares and other sequence dependencies. Galileo solves DFT models using a judicious combination of automatically generated Markov and Binary Decision Diagram models. Galileo easily handles the complexities exhibited by the benchmark problem. In particular, Galileo is designed to model phased mission systems.

Discovering Decision Knowledge from Web Log Portfolio for Managing Classroom Processes by Applying Decision Tree and Data Cube Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Gwo-Dong; Liu, Chen-Chung; Ou, Kuo-Liang; Liu, Baw-Jhiune

2000-01-01

Discusses the use of Web logs to record student behavior that can assist teachers in assessing performance and making curriculum decisions for distance learning students who are using Web-based learning systems. Adopts decision tree and data cube information processing methodologies for developing more effective pedagogical strategies. (LRW)

Taming Data to Make Decisions: Using a Spatial Fuzzy Logic Decision Support Framework to Inform Conservation and Land Use Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, T.; Baker, B.; Degagne, R. S.

2015-12-01

With the abundance of data sources, analytical methods, and computer models, land managers are faced with the overwhelming task of making sense of a profusion of data of wildly different types. Luckily, fuzzy logic provides a method to work with different types of data using language-based propositions such as "the landscape is undisturbed," and a simple set of logic constructs. Just as many surveys allow different levels of agreement with a proposition, fuzzy logic allows values reflecting different levels of truth for a proposition. Truth levels fall within a continuum ranging from Fully True to Fully False. Hence a fuzzy logic model produces continuous results. The Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (EEMS) is a platform-independent, tree-based, fuzzy logic modeling framework. An EEMS model provides a transparent definition of an evaluation model and is commonly developed as a collaborative effort among managers, scientists, and GIS experts. Managers specify a set of evaluative propositions used to characterize the landscape. Scientists, working with managers, formulate functions that convert raw data values into truth values for the propositions and produce a logic tree to combine results into a single metric used to guide decisions. Managers, scientists, and GIS experts then work together to implement and iteratively tune the logic model and produce final results. We present examples of two successful EEMS projects that provided managers with map-based results suitable for guiding decisions: sensitivity and climate change exposure in Utah and the Colorado Plateau modeled for the Bureau of Land Management; and terrestrial ecological intactness in the Mojave and Sonoran region of southern California modeled for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan.

Structural Equation Model Trees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

2013-01-01

In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

Generation of 2D Land Cover Maps for Urban Areas Using Decision Tree Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhle, J.

2014-09-01

A 2D land cover map can automatically and efficiently be generated from high-resolution multispectral aerial images. First, a digital surface model is produced and each cell of the elevation model is then supplemented with attributes. A decision tree classification is applied to extract map objects like buildings, roads, grassland, trees, hedges, and walls from such an "intelligent" point cloud. The decision tree is derived from training areas which borders are digitized on top of a false-colour orthoimage. The produced 2D land cover map with six classes is then subsequently refined by using image analysis techniques. The proposed methodology is described step by step. The classification, assessment, and refinement is carried out by the open source software "R"; the generation of the dense and accurate digital surface model by the "Match-T DSM" program of the Trimble Company. A practical example of a 2D land cover map generation is carried out. Images of a multispectral medium-format aerial camera covering an urban area in Switzerland are used. The assessment of the produced land cover map is based on class-wise stratified sampling where reference values of samples are determined by means of stereo-observations of false-colour stereopairs. The stratified statistical assessment of the produced land cover map with six classes and based on 91 points per class reveals a high thematic accuracy for classes "building" (99 %, 95 % CI: 95 %-100 %) and "road and parking lot" (90 %, 95 % CI: 83 %-95 %). Some other accuracy measures (overall accuracy, kappa value) and their 95 % confidence intervals are derived as well. The proposed methodology has a high potential for automation and fast processing and may be applied to other scenes and sensors.

Some Results of Weak Anticipative Concept Applied in Simulation Based Decision Support in Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kljajić, Miroljub; Kofjač, Davorin; Kljajić Borštnar, Mirjana; Škraba, Andrej

2010-11-01

The simulation models are used as for decision support and learning in enterprises and in schools. Tree cases of successful applications demonstrate usefulness of weak anticipative information. Job shop scheduling production with makespan criterion presents a real case customized flexible furniture production optimization. The genetic algorithm for job shop scheduling optimization is presented. Simulation based inventory control for products with stochastic lead time and demand describes inventory optimization for products with stochastic lead time and demand. Dynamic programming and fuzzy control algorithms reduce the total cost without producing stock-outs in most cases. Values of decision making information based on simulation were discussed too. All two cases will be discussed from optimization, modeling and learning point of view.

The application of data mining techniques to oral cancer prognosis.

PubMed

Tseng, Wan-Ting; Chiang, Wei-Fan; Liu, Shyun-Yeu; Roan, Jinsheng; Lin, Chun-Nan

2015-05-01

This study adopted an integrated procedure that combines the clustering and classification features of data mining technology to determine the differences between the symptoms shown in past cases where patients died from or survived oral cancer. Two data mining tools, namely decision tree and artificial neural network, were used to analyze the historical cases of oral cancer, and their performance was compared with that of logistic regression, the popular statistical analysis tool. Both decision tree and artificial neural network models showed superiority to the traditional statistical model. However, as to clinician, the trees created by the decision tree models are relatively easier to interpret compared to that of the artificial neural network models. Cluster analysis also discovers that those stage 4 patients whose also possess the following four characteristics are having an extremely low survival rate: pN is N2b, level of RLNM is level I-III, AJCC-T is T4, and cells mutate situation (G) is moderate.

Parallel object-oriented decision tree system

DOEpatents

Kamath,; Chandrika, Cantu-Paz [Dublin, CA; Erick, [Oakland, CA

2006-02-28

A data mining decision tree system that uncovers patterns, associations, anomalies, and other statistically significant structures in data by reading and displaying data files, extracting relevant features for each of the objects, and using a method of recognizing patterns among the objects based upon object features through a decision tree that reads the data, sorts the data if necessary, determines the best manner to split the data into subsets according to some criterion, and splits the data.

Exploratory Use of Decision Tree Analysis in Classification of Outcome in Hypoxic-Ischemic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Phan, Thanh G; Chen, Jian; Singhal, Shaloo; Ma, Henry; Clissold, Benjamin B; Ly, John; Beare, Richard

2018-01-01

Prognostication following hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (brain injury) is important for clinical management. The aim of this exploratory study is to use a decision tree model to find clinical and MRI associates of severe disability and death in this condition. We evaluate clinical model and then the added value of MRI data. The inclusion criteria were as follows: age ≥17 years, cardio-respiratory arrest, and coma on admission (2003-2011). Decision tree analysis was used to find clinical [Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), features about cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, age, and sex] and MRI (infarct volume) associates of severe disability and death. We used the area under the ROC (auROC) to determine accuracy of model. There were 41 (63.7% males) patients having MRI imaging with the average age 51.5 ± 18.9 years old. The decision trees showed that infarct volume and age were important factors for discrimination between mild to moderate disability and severe disability and death at day 0 and day 2. The auROC for this model was 0.94 (95% CI 0.82-1.00). At day 7, GCS value was the only predictor; the auROC was 0.96 (95% CI 0.86-1.00). Our findings provide proof of concept for further exploration of the role of MR imaging and decision tree analysis in the early prognostication of hypoxic ischemic brain injury.

Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Molento, M B; Scholte, R G; Carvalho, O S; Pritsch, I

2017-11-01

Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.

Mapping potential carbon and timber losses from hurricanes using a decision tree and ecosystem services driver model.

PubMed

Delphin, S; Escobedo, F J; Abd-Elrahman, A; Cropper, W

2013-11-15

Information on the effect of direct drivers such as hurricanes on ecosystem services is relevant to landowners and policy makers due to predicted effects from climate change. We identified forest damage risk zones due to hurricanes and estimated the potential loss of 2 key ecosystem services: aboveground carbon storage and timber volume. Using land cover, plot-level forest inventory data, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and a decision tree-based framework; we determined potential damage to subtropical forests from hurricanes in the Lower Suwannee River (LS) and Pensacola Bay (PB) watersheds in Florida, US. We used biophysical factors identified in previous studies as being influential in forest damage in our decision tree and hurricane wind risk maps. Results show that 31% and 0.5% of the total aboveground carbon storage in the LS and PB, respectively was located in high forest damage risk (HR) zones. Overall 15% and 0.7% of the total timber net volume in the LS and PB, respectively, was in HR zones. This model can also be used for identifying timber salvage areas, developing ecosystem service provision and management scenarios, and assessing the effect of other drivers on ecosystem services and goods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

hs-CRP is strongly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD): A data mining approach using decision tree algorithm.

PubMed

Tayefi, Maryam; Tajfard, Mohammad; Saffar, Sara; Hanachi, Parichehr; Amirabadizadeh, Ali Reza; Esmaeily, Habibollah; Taghipour, Ali; Ferns, Gordon A; Moohebati, Mohsen; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid

2017-04-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is an important public health problem globally. Algorithms incorporating the assessment of clinical biomarkers together with several established traditional risk factors can help clinicians to predict CHD and support clinical decision making with respect to interventions. Decision tree (DT) is a data mining model for extracting hidden knowledge from large databases. We aimed to establish a predictive model for coronary heart disease using a decision tree algorithm. Here we used a dataset of 2346 individuals including 1159 healthy participants and 1187 participant who had undergone coronary angiography (405 participants with negative angiography and 782 participants with positive angiography). We entered 10 variables of a total 12 variables into the DT algorithm (including age, sex, FBG, TG, hs-CRP, TC, HDL, LDL, SBP and DBP). Our model could identify the associated risk factors of CHD with sensitivity, specificity, accuracy of 96%, 87%, 94% and respectively. Serum hs-CRP levels was at top of the tree in our model, following by FBG, gender and age. Our model appears to be an accurate, specific and sensitive model for identifying the presence of CHD, but will require validation in prospective studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of Some Zeolite Group Minerals by Application of Artificial Neural Network and Decision Tree Algorithm Based on SEM-EDS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akkaş, Efe; Evren Çubukçu, H.; Akin, Lutfiye; Erkut, Volkan; Yurdakul, Yasin; Karayigit, Ali Ihsan

2016-04-01

Identification of zeolite group minerals is complicated due to their similar chemical formulas and habits. Although the morphologies of various zeolite crystals can be recognized under Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), it is relatively more challenging and problematic process to identify zeolites using their mineral chemical data. SEMs integrated with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometers (EDS) provide fast and reliable chemical data of minerals. However, considering elemental similarities of characteristic chemical formulae of zeolite species (e.g. Clinoptilolite ((Na,K,Ca)2 -3Al3(Al,Si)2Si13O3612H2O) and Erionite ((Na2,K2,Ca)2Al4Si14O36ṡ15H2O)) EDS data alone does not seem to be sufficient for correct identification. Furthermore, the physical properties of the specimen (e.g. roughness, electrical conductivity) and the applied analytical conditions (e.g. accelerating voltage, beam current, spot size) of the SEM-EDS should be uniform in order to obtain reliable elemental results of minerals having high alkali (Na, K) and H2O (approx. %14-18) contents. This study which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Project No: 113Y439), aims to construct a database as large as possible for various zeolite minerals and to develop a general prediction model for the identification of zeolite minerals using SEM-EDS data. For this purpose, an artificial neural network and rule based decision tree algorithm were employed. Throughout the analyses, a total of 1850 chemical data were collected from four distinct zeolite species, (Clinoptilolite-Heulandite, Erionite, Analcime and Mordenite) observed in various rocks (e.g. coals, pyroclastics). In order to obtain a representative training data set for each minerals, a selection procedure for reference mineral analyses was applied. During the selection procedure, SEM based crystal morphology data, XRD spectra and re-calculated cationic distribution, obtained by EDS have been used for the characterization of the training set. Consequently, for each zeolite species 250 EDS data (as elemental intensities) used for training and 200 ±50 analyses were tested. Finally, two prediction models were developed. The constructed models with various cross-correlation values (r) yielded an average accuracy of >91% for the best predictions using C5.0 Decision Tree algorithm and back propagation artificial neural network. Despite having similar accuracies, the developed models exhibit different prediction behaviors for some zeolite minerals. The results demonstrate that artificial neural network as a nonlinear tool and decision tree algorithm as a rule based prediction model would be employed to provide considerably efficient and reliable identification/classification of some zeolite minerals regardless of their similar elemental compositions. Keywords: mineral identification; zeolites; energy dispersive spectrometry; artificial neural networks; decision tree.

Application of decision tree for prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence based on environmental and topographic factors in Isfahan Province, Iran.

PubMed

Ramezankhani, Roghieh; Sajjadi, Nooshin; Nezakati Esmaeilzadeh, Roya; Jozi, Seyed Ali; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza

2018-05-08

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease that continues to be a health problem in Iran. Nearly 350 million people are thought to be at risk. We investigated the impact of the environmental factors on CL incidence during the period 2007- 2015 in a known endemic area for this disease in Isfahan Province, Iran. After collecting data with regard to the climatic, topographic, vegetation coverage and CL cases in the study area, a decision tree model was built using the classification and regression tree algorithm. CL data for the years 2007 until 2012 were used for model construction and the data for the years 2013 until 2015 were used for testing the model. The Root Mean Square error and the correlation factor were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the decision tree model. We found that wind speeds less than 14 m/s, altitudes between 1234 and 1810 m above the mean sea level, vegetation coverage according to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) less than 0.12, rainfall less than 1.6 mm and air temperatures higher than 30°C would correspond to a seasonal incidence of 163.28 per 100,000 persons, while if wind speed is less than 14 m/s, altitude less than 1,810 m and NDVI higher than 0.12, then the mean seasonal incidence of the disease would be 2.27 per 100,000 persons. Environmental factors were found to be important predictive variables for CL incidence and should be considered in surveillance and prevention programmes for CL control.

Can Religious Beliefs be a Protective Factor for Suicidal Behavior? A Decision Tree Analysis in a Mid-Sized City in Iran, 2013.

PubMed

Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nakhaee, Nouzar; Jalali, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Akbari, Maryam

2017-04-01

This study aimed to assess using tree-based models the impact of different dimensions of religion and other risk factors on suicide attempts in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hundred patients who attempted suicide and 300 age- and sex-matched patient attendants with other types of disease who referred to Kerman Afzalipour Hospital were recruited for this study following a convenience sampling. Religiosity was assessed by the Duke University Religion Index. A tree-based model was constructed using the Gini Index as the homogeneity criterion. A complementary discrimination analysis was also applied. Variables contributing to the construction of the tree were stressful life events, mental disorder, family support, and religious belief. Strong religious belief was a protective factor for those with a low number of stressful life events and those with a high mental disorder score; 72 % of those who formed these two groups had not attempted suicide. Moreover, 63 % of those with a high number of stressful life events, strong family support, strong problem-solving skills, and a low mental disorder score were less likely to attempt suicide. The significance of four other variables, GHQ, problem-coping skills, friend support, and neuroticism, was revealed in the discrimination analysis. Religious beliefs seem to be an independent factor that can predict risk for suicidal behavior. Based on the decision tree, religious beliefs among people with a high number of stressful life events might not be a dissuading factor. Such subjects need more family support and problem-solving skills.

Application of preprocessing filtering on Decision Tree C4.5 and rough set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Joseph C. C.; Lin, Tsau Y.

2001-03-01

This paper compares two artificial intelligence methods: the Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory on the stock market data. The Decision Tree C4.5 is reviewed with the Rough Set Theory. An enhanced window application is developed to facilitate the pre-processing filtering by introducing the feature (attribute) transformations, which allows users to input formulas and create new attributes. Also, the application produces three varieties of data set with delaying, averaging, and summation. The results prove the improvement of pre-processing by applying feature (attribute) transformations on Decision Tree C4.5. Moreover, the comparison between Decision Tree C4.5 and Rough Set Theory is based on the clarity, automation, accuracy, dimensionality, raw data, and speed, which is supported by the rules sets generated by both algorithms on three different sets of data.

Using Decision Trees to Detect and Isolate Simulated Leaks in the J-2X Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwabacher, Mark A.; Aguilar, Robert; Figueroa, Fernando F.

2009-01-01

The goal of this work was to use data-driven methods to automatically detect and isolate faults in the J-2X rocket engine. It was decided to use decision trees, since they tend to be easier to interpret than other data-driven methods. The decision tree algorithm automatically "learns" a decision tree by performing a search through the space of possible decision trees to find one that fits the training data. The particular decision tree algorithm used is known as C4.5. Simulated J-2X data from a high-fidelity simulator developed at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and known as the Detailed Real-Time Model (DRTM) was used to "train" and test the decision tree. Fifty-six DRTM simulations were performed for this purpose, with different leak sizes, different leak locations, and different times of leak onset. To make the simulations as realistic as possible, they included simulated sensor noise, and included a gradual degradation in both fuel and oxidizer turbine efficiency. A decision tree was trained using 11 of these simulations, and tested using the remaining 45 simulations. In the training phase, the C4.5 algorithm was provided with labeled examples of data from nominal operation and data including leaks in each leak location. From the data, it "learned" a decision tree that can classify unseen data as having no leak or having a leak in one of the five leak locations. In the test phase, the decision tree produced very low false alarm rates and low missed detection rates on the unseen data. It had very good fault isolation rates for three of the five simulated leak locations, but it tended to confuse the remaining two locations, perhaps because a large leak at one of these two locations can look very similar to a small leak at the other location.

Generation and Termination of Binary Decision Trees for Nonparametric Multiclass Classification.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-01

O M coF=F;; UMBER2. GOVT ACCE5SION NO.1 3 . REC,PINS :A7AL:,G NUMBER ( ’eneration and Terminat_,on :)f Binary D-ecision jC j ik; Trees for Nonnararetrc...1-I . v)IAMO 0~I4 EDvt" O F I 00 . 3 15I OR%.OL.ETL - S-S OCTOBER 1984 LIDS-P-1411 GENERATION AND TERMINATION OF BINARY DECISION TREES FOR...minimizes the Bayes risk. Tree generation and termination are based on the training and test samples, respectively. 0 0 0/ 6 0¢ A 3 I. Introduction We state

Application of data mining techniques to explore predictors of upper urinary tract damage in patients with neurogenic bladder.

PubMed

Fang, H; Lu, B; Wang, X; Zheng, L; Sun, K; Cai, W

2017-08-17

This study proposed a decision tree model to screen upper urinary tract damage (UUTD) for patients with neurogenic bladder (NGB). Thirty-four NGB patients with UUTD were recruited in the case group, while 78 without UUTD were included in the control group. A decision tree method, classification and regression tree (CART), was then applied to develop the model in which UUTD was used as a dependent variable and history of urinary tract infections, bladder management, conservative treatment, and urodynamic findings were used as independent variables. The urethra function factor was found to be the primary screening information of patients and treated as the root node of the tree; Pabd max (maximum abdominal pressure, >14 cmH2O), Pves max (maximum intravesical pressure, ≤89 cmH2O), and gender (female) were also variables associated with UUTD. The accuracy of the proposed model was 84.8%, and the area under curve was 0.901 (95%CI=0.844-0.958), suggesting that the decision tree model might provide a new and convenient way to screen UUTD for NGB patients in both undeveloped and developing areas.

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach.

PubMed

Batterham, Philip J; Christensen, Helen; Mackinnon, Andrew J

2009-11-22

Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.

Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

PubMed

Rochau, U; Jahn, B; Qerimi, V; Burger, E A; Kurzthaler, C; Kluibenschaedl, M; Willenbacher, E; Gastl, G; Willenbacher, W; Siebert, U

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection.

PubMed

Tantawy, Ashraf; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Biswas, Gautam

2015-08-20

The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches.

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2014-12-01

The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

Comparison of Taxi Time Prediction Performance Using Different Taxi Speed Decision Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Hanbong

2017-01-01

In the STBO modeler and tactical surface scheduler for ATD-2 project, taxi speed decision trees are used to calculate the unimpeded taxi times of flights taxiing on the airport surface. The initial taxi speed values in these decision trees did not show good prediction accuracy of taxi times. Using the more recent, reliable surveillance data, new taxi speed values in ramp area and movement area were computed. Before integrating these values into the STBO system, we performed test runs using live data from Charlotte airport, with different taxi speed settings: 1) initial taxi speed values and 2) new ones. Taxi time prediction performance was evaluated by comparing various metrics. The results show that the new taxi speed decision trees can calculate the unimpeded taxi-out times more accurately.

Short communication: Prediction of retention pay-off using a machine learning algorithm.

PubMed

Shahinfar, Saleh; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor; Weigel, Kent

2014-05-01

Replacement decisions have a major effect on dairy farm profitability. Dynamic programming (DP) has been widely studied to find the optimal replacement policies in dairy cattle. However, DP models are computationally intensive and might not be practical for daily decision making. Hence, the ability of applying machine learning on a prerun DP model to provide fast and accurate predictions of nonlinear and intercorrelated variables makes it an ideal methodology. Milk class (1 to 5), lactation number (1 to 9), month in milk (1 to 20), and month of pregnancy (0 to 9) were used to describe all cows in a herd in a DP model. Twenty-seven scenarios based on all combinations of 3 levels (base, 20% above, and 20% below) of milk production, milk price, and replacement cost were solved with the DP model, resulting in a data set of 122,716 records, each with a calculated retention pay-off (RPO). Then, a machine learning model tree algorithm was used to mimic the evaluated RPO with DP. The correlation coefficient factor was used to observe the concordance of RPO evaluated by DP and RPO predicted by the model tree. The obtained correlation coefficient was 0.991, with a corresponding value of 0.11 for relative absolute error. At least 100 instances were required per model constraint, resulting in 204 total equations (models). When these models were used for binary classification of positive and negative RPO, error rates were 1% false negatives and 9% false positives. Applying this trained model from simulated data for prediction of RPO for 102 actual replacement records from the University of Wisconsin-Madison dairy herd resulted in a 0.994 correlation with 0.10 relative absolute error rate. Overall results showed that model tree has a potential to be used in conjunction with DP to assist farmers in their replacement decisions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Decision Trees for Estimating Mode Choice of Trips in Buca-Izmir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oral, L. O.; Tecim, V.

2013-05-01

Decision makers develop transportation plans and models for providing sustainable transport systems in urban areas. Mode Choice is one of the stages in transportation modelling. Data mining techniques can discover factors affecting the mode choice. These techniques can be applied with knowledge process approach. In this study a data mining process model is applied to determine the factors affecting the mode choice with decision trees techniques by considering individual trip behaviours from household survey data collected within Izmir Transportation Master Plan. From this perspective transport mode choice problem is solved on a case in district of Buca-Izmir, Turkey with CRISP-DM knowledge process model.

Predicting metabolic syndrome using decision tree and support vector machine methods.

PubMed

Karimi-Alavijeh, Farzaneh; Jalili, Saeed; Sadeghi, Masoumeh

2016-05-01

Metabolic syndrome which underlies the increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes is considered as a group of metabolic abnormalities including central obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, glucose intolerance, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Recently, artificial intelligence based health-care systems are highly regarded because of its success in diagnosis, prediction, and choice of treatment. This study employs machine learning technics for predict the metabolic syndrome. This study aims to employ decision tree and support vector machine (SVM) to predict the 7-year incidence of metabolic syndrome. This research is a practical one in which data from 2107 participants of Isfahan Cohort Study has been utilized. The subjects without metabolic syndrome according to the ATPIII criteria were selected. The features that have been used in this data set include: gender, age, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, hip circumference, physical activity, smoking, hypertension, antihypertensive medication use, systolic blood pressure (BP), diastolic BP, fasting blood sugar, 2-hour blood glucose, triglycerides (TGs), total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein-cholesterol, mean corpuscular volume, and mean corpuscular hemoglobin. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed based on ATPIII criteria and two methods of decision tree and SVM were selected to predict the metabolic syndrome. The criteria of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were used for validation. SVM and decision tree methods were examined according to the criteria of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 0.774 (0.758), 0.74 (0.72) and 0.757 (0.739) in SVM (decision tree) method. The results show that SVM method sensitivity, specificity and accuracy is more efficient than decision tree. The results of decision tree method show that the TG is the most important feature in predicting metabolic syndrome. According to this study, in cases where only the final result of the decision is regarded significant, SVM method can be used with acceptable accuracy in decision making medical issues. This method has not been implemented in the previous research.

GIS-based integrated assessment and decision support system for land use planning in consideration of carbon sequestration benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Chen, J. M.; Li, Manchun; Ju, Weimin

2007-06-01

As the major eligible land use activities in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), afforestation and reforestation offer opportunities and potential economic benefits for developing countries to participate in carbon-trade in the potential international carbon (C) sink markets. However, the design and selection of appropriate afforestation and reforestation locations in CDM are complex processes which need integrated assessment (IA) of C sequestration (CS) potential, environmental effects, and socio-economic impacts. This paper promotes the consideration of CS benefits in local land use planning and presents a GIS-based integrated assessment and spatial decision support system (IA-SDSS) to support decision-making on 'where' and 'how' to afforest. It integrates an Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Model (InTEC) and a GIS platform for modeling regional long-term CS potential and assessment of geo-referenced land use criteria including CS consequence, and produces ranking of plantation schemes with different tree species using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Three land use scenarios are investigated: (i) traditional land use planning criteria without C benefits, (ii) land use for CS with low C price, and (iii) land use for CS with high price. Different scenarios and consequences will influence the weights of tree-species selection in the AHP decision process.

Effective Prediction of Errors by Non-native Speakers Using Decision Tree for Speech Recognition-Based CALL System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongcui; Kawahara, Tatsuya

CALL (Computer Assisted Language Learning) systems using ASR (Automatic Speech Recognition) for second language learning have received increasing interest recently. However, it still remains a challenge to achieve high speech recognition performance, including accurate detection of erroneous utterances by non-native speakers. Conventionally, possible error patterns, based on linguistic knowledge, are added to the lexicon and language model, or the ASR grammar network. However, this approach easily falls in the trade-off of coverage of errors and the increase of perplexity. To solve the problem, we propose a method based on a decision tree to learn effective prediction of errors made by non-native speakers. An experimental evaluation with a number of foreign students learning Japanese shows that the proposed method can effectively generate an ASR grammar network, given a target sentence, to achieve both better coverage of errors and smaller perplexity, resulting in significant improvement in ASR accuracy.

A decision tree-based on-line preventive control strategy for power system transient instability prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yan; Dong, Zhao Yang; Zhang, Rui; Wong, Kit Po

2014-02-01

Maintaining transient stability is a basic requirement for secure power system operations. Preventive control deals with modifying the system operating point to withstand probable contingencies. In this article, a decision tree (DT)-based on-line preventive control strategy is proposed for transient instability prevention of power systems. Given a stability database, a distance-based feature estimation algorithm is first applied to identify the critical generators, which are then used as features to develop a DT. By interpreting the splitting rules of DT, preventive control is realised by formulating the rules in a standard optimal power flow model and solving it. The proposed method is transparent in control mechanism, on-line computation compatible and convenient to deal with multi-contingency. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method has been verified on New England 10-machine 39-bus test system.

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Screening and Risk Factors Using Decision Tree: Results of Data Mining.

PubMed

Habibi, Shafi; Ahmadi, Maryam; Alizadeh, Somayeh

2015-03-18

The aim of this study was to examine a predictive model using features related to the diabetes type 2 risk factors. The data were obtained from a database in a diabetes control system in Tabriz, Iran. The data included all people referred for diabetes screening between 2009 and 2011. The features considered as "Inputs" were: age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). Moreover, we used diagnosis as "Class". We applied the "Decision Tree" technique and "J48" algorithm in the WEKA (3.6.10 version) software to develop the model. After data preprocessing and preparation, we used 22,398 records for data mining. The model precision to identify patients was 0.717. The age factor was placed in the root node of the tree as a result of higher information gain. The ROC curve indicates the model function in identification of patients and those individuals who are healthy. The curve indicates high capability of the model, especially in identification of the healthy persons. We developed a model using the decision tree for screening T2DM which did not require laboratory tests for T2DM diagnosis.

Learning accurate very fast decision trees from uncertain data streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chunquan; Zhang, Yang; Shi, Peng; Hu, Zhengguo

2015-12-01

Most existing works on data stream classification assume the streaming data is precise and definite. Such assumption, however, does not always hold in practice, since data uncertainty is ubiquitous in data stream applications due to imprecise measurement, missing values, privacy protection, etc. The goal of this paper is to learn accurate decision tree models from uncertain data streams for classification analysis. On the basis of very fast decision tree (VFDT) algorithms, we proposed an algorithm for constructing an uncertain VFDT tree with classifiers at tree leaves (uVFDTc). The uVFDTc algorithm can exploit uncertain information effectively and efficiently in both the learning and the classification phases. In the learning phase, it uses Hoeffding bound theory to learn from uncertain data streams and yield fast and reasonable decision trees. In the classification phase, at tree leaves it uses uncertain naive Bayes (UNB) classifiers to improve the classification performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets demonstrate the strong ability of uVFDTc to classify uncertain data streams. The use of UNB at tree leaves has improved the performance of uVFDTc, especially the any-time property, the benefit of exploiting uncertain information, and the robustness against uncertainty.

Applying decision tree for identification of a low risk population for type 2 diabetes. Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Ramezankhani, Azra; Pournik, Omid; Shahrabi, Jamal; Khalili, Davood; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to create a prediction model using data mining approach to identify low risk individuals for incidence of type 2 diabetes, using the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) database. For a 6647 population without diabetes, aged ≥20 years, followed for 12 years, a prediction model was developed using classification by the decision tree technique. Seven hundred and twenty-nine (11%) diabetes cases occurred during the follow-up. Predictor variables were selected from demographic characteristics, smoking status, medical and drug history and laboratory measures. We developed the predictive models by decision tree using 60 input variables and one output variable. The overall classification accuracy was 90.5%, with 31.1% sensitivity, 97.9% specificity; and for the subjects without diabetes, precision and f-measure were 92% and 0.95, respectively. The identified variables included fasting plasma glucose, body mass index, triglycerides, mean arterial blood pressure, family history of diabetes, educational level and job status. In conclusion, decision tree analysis, using routine demographic, clinical, anthropometric and laboratory measurements, created a simple tool to predict individuals at low risk for type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Binary recursive partitioning: background, methods, and application to psychology.

PubMed

Merkle, Edgar C; Shaffer, Victoria A

2011-02-01

Binary recursive partitioning (BRP) is a computationally intensive statistical method that can be used in situations where linear models are often used. Instead of imposing many assumptions to arrive at a tractable statistical model, BRP simply seeks to accurately predict a response variable based on values of predictor variables. The method outputs a decision tree depicting the predictor variables that were related to the response variable, along with the nature of the variables' relationships. No significance tests are involved, and the tree's 'goodness' is judged based on its predictive accuracy. In this paper, we describe BRP methods in a detailed manner and illustrate their use in psychological research. We also provide R code for carrying out the methods.

Identification of pests and diseases of Dalbergia hainanensis based on EVI time series and classification of decision tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qiu; Xin, Wu; Qiming, Xiong

2017-06-01

In the process of vegetation remote sensing information extraction, the problem of phenological features and low performance of remote sensing analysis algorithm is not considered. To solve this problem, the method of remote sensing vegetation information based on EVI time-series and the classification of decision-tree of multi-source branch similarity is promoted. Firstly, to improve the time-series stability of recognition accuracy, the seasonal feature of vegetation is extracted based on the fitting span range of time-series. Secondly, the decision-tree similarity is distinguished by adaptive selection path or probability parameter of component prediction. As an index, it is to evaluate the degree of task association, decide whether to perform migration of multi-source decision tree, and ensure the speed of migration. Finally, the accuracy of classification and recognition of pests and diseases can reach 87%--98% of commercial forest in Dalbergia hainanensis, which is significantly better than that of MODIS coverage accuracy of 80%--96% in this area. Therefore, the validity of the proposed method can be verified.

A functional–structural model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata) focusing on tree architecture and wood quality

PubMed Central

Fernández, M. Paulina; Norero, Aldo; Vera, Jorge R.; Pérez, Eduardo

2011-01-01

Backgrounds and Aims Functional–structural models are interesting tools to relate environmental and management conditions with forest growth. Their three-dimensional images can reveal important characteristics of wood used for industrial products. Like virtual laboratories, they can be used to evaluate relationships among species, sites and management, and to support silvicultural design and decision processes. Our aim was to develop a functional–structural model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata) given its economic importance in many countries. Methods The plant model uses the L-system language. The structure of the model is based on operational units, which obey particular rules, and execute photosynthesis, respiration and morphogenesis, according to their particular characteristics. Plant allometry is adhered to so that harmonic growth and plant development are achieved. Environmental signals for morphogenesis are used. Dynamic turnover guides the normal evolution of the tree. Monthly steps allow for detailed information of wood characteristics. The model is independent of traditional forest inventory relationships and is conceived as a mechanistic model. For model parameterization, three databases which generated new information relating to P. radiata were analysed and incorporated. Key Results Simulations under different and contrasting environmental and management conditions were run and statistically tested. The model was validated against forest inventory data for the same sites and times and against true crown architectural data. The performance of the model for 6-year-old trees was encouraging. Total height, diameter and lengths of growth units were adequately estimated. Branch diameters were slightly overestimated. Wood density values were not satisfactory, but the cyclical pattern and increase of growth rings were reasonably well modelled. Conclusions The model was able to reproduce the development and growth of the species based on mechanistic formulations. It may be valuable in assessing stand behaviour under different environmental and management conditions, assisting in decision-making with regard to management, and as a research tool to formulate hypothesis regarding forest tree growth and development. PMID:21987452

A Comparison between Decision Tree and Random Forest in Determining the Risk Factors Associated with Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Esmaily, Habibollah; Tayefi, Maryam; Doosti, Hassan; Ghayour-Mobarhan, Majid; Nezami, Hossein; Amirabadizadeh, Alireza

2018-04-24

We aimed to identify the associated risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using data mining approach, decision tree and random forest techniques using the Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorders (MASHAD) Study program. A cross-sectional study. The MASHAD study started in 2010 and will continue until 2020. Two data mining tools, namely decision trees, and random forests, are used for predicting T2DM when some other characteristics are observed on 9528 subjects recruited from MASHAD database. This paper makes a comparison between these two models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the area under ROC curve. The prevalence rate of T2DM was 14% among these subjects. The decision tree model has 64.9% accuracy, 64.5% sensitivity, 66.8% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 68.6%, while the random forest model has 71.1% accuracy, 71.3% sensitivity, 69.9% specificity, and area under the ROC curve measuring 77.3% respectively. The random forest model, when used with demographic, clinical, and anthropometric and biochemical measurements, can provide a simple tool to identify associated risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Such identification can substantially use for managing the health policy to reduce the number of subjects with T2DM .

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Uncertain decision tree inductive inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarban, L.; Jafari, S.; Fakhrahmad, S. M.

2011-10-01

Induction is the process of reasoning in which general rules are formulated based on limited observations of recurring phenomenal patterns. Decision tree learning is one of the most widely used and practical inductive methods, which represents the results in a tree scheme. Various decision tree algorithms have already been proposed such as CLS, ID3, Assistant C4.5, REPTree and Random Tree. These algorithms suffer from some major shortcomings. In this article, after discussing the main limitations of the existing methods, we introduce a new decision tree induction algorithm, which overcomes all the problems existing in its counterparts. The new method uses bit strings and maintains important information on them. This use of bit strings and logical operation on them causes high speed during the induction process. Therefore, it has several important features: it deals with inconsistencies in data, avoids overfitting and handles uncertainty. We also illustrate more advantages and the new features of the proposed method. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the method in comparison with other methods existing in the literature.

C-fuzzy variable-branch decision tree with storage and classification error rate constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shiueng-Bien

2009-10-01

The C-fuzzy decision tree (CFDT), which is based on the fuzzy C-means algorithm, has recently been proposed. The CFDT is grown by selecting the nodes to be split according to its classification error rate. However, the CFDT design does not consider the classification time taken to classify the input vector. Thus, the CFDT can be improved. We propose a new C-fuzzy variable-branch decision tree (CFVBDT) with storage and classification error rate constraints. The design of the CFVBDT consists of two phases-growing and pruning. The CFVBDT is grown by selecting the nodes to be split according to the classification error rate and the classification time in the decision tree. Additionally, the pruning method selects the nodes to prune based on the storage requirement and the classification time of the CFVBDT. Furthermore, the number of branches of each internal node is variable in the CFVBDT. Experimental results indicate that the proposed CFVBDT outperforms the CFDT and other methods.

A decision tree algorithm for investigation of model biases related to dynamical cores and physical parameterizations: CESM/CAM EVALUATION BY DECISION TREES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soner Yorgun, M.; Rood, Richard B.

An object-based evaluation method using a pattern recognition algorithm (i.e., classification trees) is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite volume (FV) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical cores with varying resolutions. Daily simulations were analyzed and three different types of precipitation features were identified by the classification tree algorithm. The statistical characteristics of these features (i.e., maximum value, mean value, and variance) were calculated to quantify the difference between the dynamical cores and changing resolutions. Even with the simple and smoothmore » topography in the idealized setups, complexity in the precipitation fields simulated by the models develops quickly. The classification tree algorithm using objective thresholding successfully detected different types of precipitation features even as the complexity of the precipitation field increased. The results show that the complexity and the bias introduced in small-scale phenomena due to the spectral transform method of CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core is prominent, and is an important reason for its dissimilarity from the FV dynamical core. The resolvable scales, both in horizontal and vertical dimensions, have significant effect on the simulation of precipitation. The results of this study also suggest that an efficient and informative study about the biases produced by GCMs should involve daily (or even hourly) output (rather than monthly mean) analysis over local scales.« less

A decision tree algorithm for investigation of model biases related to dynamical cores and physical parameterizations: CESM/CAM EVALUATION BY DECISION TREES

DOE PAGES

Soner Yorgun, M.; Rood, Richard B.

2016-11-11

An object-based evaluation method using a pattern recognition algorithm (i.e., classification trees) is applied to the simulated orographic precipitation for idealized experimental setups using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite volume (FV) and the Eulerian spectral transform dynamical cores with varying resolutions. Daily simulations were analyzed and three different types of precipitation features were identified by the classification tree algorithm. The statistical characteristics of these features (i.e., maximum value, mean value, and variance) were calculated to quantify the difference between the dynamical cores and changing resolutions. Even with the simple and smoothmore » topography in the idealized setups, complexity in the precipitation fields simulated by the models develops quickly. The classification tree algorithm using objective thresholding successfully detected different types of precipitation features even as the complexity of the precipitation field increased. The results show that the complexity and the bias introduced in small-scale phenomena due to the spectral transform method of CAM Eulerian spectral dynamical core is prominent, and is an important reason for its dissimilarity from the FV dynamical core. The resolvable scales, both in horizontal and vertical dimensions, have significant effect on the simulation of precipitation. The results of this study also suggest that an efficient and informative study about the biases produced by GCMs should involve daily (or even hourly) output (rather than monthly mean) analysis over local scales.« less

Automatic energy expenditure measurement for health science.

PubMed

Catal, Cagatay; Akbulut, Akhan

2018-04-01

It is crucial to predict the human energy expenditure in any sports activity and health science application accurately to investigate the impact of the activity. However, measurement of the real energy expenditure is not a trivial task and involves complex steps. The objective of this work is to improve the performance of existing estimation models of energy expenditure by using machine learning algorithms and several data from different sensors and provide this estimation service in a cloud-based platform. In this study, we used input data such as breathe rate, and hearth rate from three sensors. Inputs are received from a web form and sent to the web service which applies a regression model on Azure cloud platform. During the experiments, we assessed several machine learning models based on regression methods. Our experimental results showed that our novel model which applies Boosted Decision Tree Regression in conjunction with the median aggregation technique provides the best result among other five regression algorithms. This cloud-based energy expenditure system which uses a web service showed that cloud computing technology is a great opportunity to develop estimation systems and the new model which applies Boosted Decision Tree Regression with the median aggregation provides remarkable results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Reading Anxiety for Promoting English-Language Reading Performance Based on Reading Annotation Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Chih-Ming; Wang, Jung-Ying; Chen, Yong-Ting; Wu, Jhih-Hao

2016-01-01

To reduce effectively the reading anxiety of learners while reading English articles, a C4.5 decision tree, a widely used data mining technique, was used to develop a personalized reading anxiety prediction model (PRAPM) based on individual learners' reading annotation behavior in a collaborative digital reading annotation system (CDRAS). In…

Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection †

PubMed Central

Tantawy, Ashraf; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Biswas, Gautam

2015-01-01

The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches. PMID:26307989

Practical (?) considerations for implementing assisted migration strategies for trees in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenney, D.; Pedlar, J.

2011-12-01

Climate is one of the major influences on forests and much effort has gone into projecting the impacts of rapid climate change on forest distribution and productivity. Such efforts are premised on the notion that the current generation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide reasonably accurate representations of future climate. But what is the appropriate level of faith to put in these projections when making relatively fine-scale resource management decisions such as the movement of plant genetic material? In this talk we review recent outcomes of climate envelope models for North American tree species that suggest optimal climate regimes could move on average ~700km within the next 100 years. Newer generation GCMs seem to confirm these results but much uncertainty remains for practical decision-making. Despite these uncertainties, assisted migration has been suggested as a climate change adaptation tool wherein populations of trees are moved up to a few hundred kilometers north (or a few hundred meters upslope) to keep pace with the anticipated changes in optimal climate regimes. A continent-wide web based tool (SEEDWHERE) is presented, which assists in identifying appropriate translocation distances for assisted migration initiatives. We finish with some suggestions for future work on the topic of forest regeneration decisions under an evolving and uncertain future climate.

Development of Web tools to predict axillary lymph node metastasis and pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Masahiro; Takada, Masahiro; Toi, Masakazu

2014-12-09

Nomograms are a standard computational tool to predict the likelihood of an outcome using multiple available patient features. We have developed a more powerful data mining methodology, to predict axillary lymph node (AxLN) metastasis and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in primary breast cancer patients. We developed websites to use these tools. The tools calculate the probability of AxLN metastasis (AxLN model) and pathological complete response to NAC (NAC model). As a calculation algorithm, we employed a decision tree-based prediction model known as the alternative decision tree (ADTree), which is an analog development of if-then type decision trees. An ensemble technique was used to combine multiple ADTree predictions, resulting in higher generalization abilities and robustness against missing values. The AxLN model was developed with training datasets (n=148) and test datasets (n=143), and validated using an independent cohort (n=174), yielding an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.768. The NAC model was developed and validated with n=150 and n=173 datasets from a randomized controlled trial, yielding an AUC of 0.787. AxLN and NAC models require users to input up to 17 and 16 variables, respectively. These include pathological features, including human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and imaging findings. Each input variable has an option of "unknown," to facilitate prediction for cases with missing values. The websites developed facilitate the use of these tools, and serve as a database for accumulating new datasets.

Multi-modal management of acromegaly: a value perspective.

PubMed

Kimmell, Kristopher T; Weil, Robert J; Marko, Nicholas F

2015-10-01

The Acromegaly Consensus Group recently released updated guidelines for medical management of acromegaly patients. We subjected these guidelines to a cost analysis. We conducted a cost analysis of the recommendations based on published efficacy rates as well as publicly available cost data. The results were compared to findings from a previously reported comparative effectiveness analysis of acromegaly treatments. Using decision tree software, two models were created based on the Acromegaly Consensus Group's recommendations and the comparative effectiveness analysis. The decision tree for the Consensus Group's recommendations was subjected to multi-way tornado analysis to identify variables that most impacted the value analysis of the decision tree. The value analysis confirmed the Consensus Group's recommendations of somatostatin analogs as first line therapy for medical management. Our model also demonstrated significant value in using dopamine agonist agents as upfront therapy as well. Sensitivity analysis identified the cost of somatostatin analogs and growth hormone receptor antagonists as having the most significant impact on the cost effectiveness of medical therapies. Our analysis confirmed the value of surgery as first-line therapy for patients with surgically accessible lesions. Surgery provides the greatest value for management of patients with acromegaly. However, in accordance with the Acromegaly Consensus Group's recent recommendations, somatostatin analogs provide the greatest value and should be used as first-line therapy for patients who cannot be managed surgically. At present, the substantial cost is the most significant negative factor in the value of medical therapies for acromegaly.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis with Influence Diagrams.

PubMed

Arias, M; Díez, F J

2015-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used increasingly in medicine to determine whether the health benefit of an intervention is worth the economic cost. Decision trees, the standard decision modeling technique for non-temporal domains, can only perform CEA for very small problems. To develop a method for CEA in problems involving several dozen variables. We explain how to build influence diagrams (IDs) that explicitly represent cost and effectiveness. We propose an algorithm for evaluating cost-effectiveness IDs directly, i.e., without expanding an equivalent decision tree. The evaluation of an ID returns a set of intervals for the willingness to pay - separated by cost-effectiveness thresholds - and, for each interval, the cost, the effectiveness, and the optimal intervention. The algorithm that evaluates the ID directly is in general much more efficient than the brute-force method, which is in turn more efficient than the expansion of an equivalent decision tree. Using OpenMarkov, an open-source software tool that implements this algorithm, we have been able to perform CEAs on several IDs whose equivalent decision trees contain millions of branches. IDs can perform CEA on large problems that cannot be analyzed with decision trees.

A Hybrid Approach of Stepwise Regression, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Decision Tree for Forecasting Fraudulent Financial Statements

PubMed Central

Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De

2014-01-01

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%. PMID:25302338

A hybrid approach of stepwise regression, logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree for forecasting fraudulent financial statements.

PubMed

Chen, Suduan; Goo, Yeong-Jia James; Shen, Zone-De

2014-01-01

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support vector machine, and decision tree to construct the classification models to make a comparison. The study adopts financial and nonfinancial variables to assist in establishment of the forecasting fraudulent financial statement model. Research objects are the companies to which the fraudulent and nonfraudulent financial statement happened between years 1998 to 2012. The findings are that financial and nonfinancial information are effectively used to distinguish the fraudulent financial statement, and decision tree C5.0 has the best classification effect 85.71%.

Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

2004-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

FDT 2.0: Improving scalability of the fuzzy decision tree induction tool - integrating database storage.

PubMed

Durham, Erin-Elizabeth A; Yu, Xiaxia; Harrison, Robert W

2014-12-01

Effective machine-learning handles large datasets efficiently. One key feature of handling large data is the use of databases such as MySQL. The freeware fuzzy decision tree induction tool, FDT, is a scalable supervised-classification software tool implementing fuzzy decision trees. It is based on an optimized fuzzy ID3 (FID3) algorithm. FDT 2.0 improves upon FDT 1.0 by bridging the gap between data science and data engineering: it combines a robust decisioning tool with data retention for future decisions, so that the tool does not need to be recalibrated from scratch every time a new decision is required. In this paper we briefly review the analytical capabilities of the freeware FDT tool and its major features and functionalities; examples of large biological datasets from HIV, microRNAs and sRNAs are included. This work shows how to integrate fuzzy decision algorithms with modern database technology. In addition, we show that integrating the fuzzy decision tree induction tool with database storage allows for optimal user satisfaction in today's Data Analytics world.

A decision tree for differentiating multiple system atrophy from Parkinson's disease using 3-T MR imaging.

PubMed

Nair, Shalini Rajandran; Tan, Li Kuo; Mohd Ramli, Norlisah; Lim, Shen Yang; Rahmat, Kartini; Mohd Nor, Hazman

2013-06-01

To develop a decision tree based on standard magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging to differentiate multiple system atrophy (MSA) from Parkinson's disease (PD). 3-T brain MRI and DTI (diffusion tensor imaging) were performed on 26 PD and 13 MSA patients. Regions of interest (ROIs) were the putamen, substantia nigra, pons, middle cerebellar peduncles (MCP) and cerebellum. Linear, volumetry and DTI (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity) were measured. A three-node decision tree was formulated, with design goals being 100 % specificity at node 1, 100 % sensitivity at node 2 and highest combined sensitivity and specificity at node 3. Nine parameters (mean width, fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) of MCP; anteroposterior diameter of pons; cerebellar FA and volume; pons and mean putamen volume; mean FA substantia nigra compacta-rostral) showed statistically significant (P < 0.05) differences between MSA and PD with mean MCP width, anteroposterior diameter of pons and mean FA MCP chosen for the decision tree. Threshold values were 14.6 mm, 21.8 mm and 0.55, respectively. Overall performance of the decision tree was 92 % sensitivity, 96 % specificity, 92 % PPV and 96 % NPV. Twelve out of 13 MSA patients were accurately classified. Formation of the decision tree using these parameters was both descriptive and predictive in differentiating between MSA and PD. • Parkinson's disease and multiple system atrophy can be distinguished on MR imaging. • Combined conventional MRI and diffusion tensor imaging improves the accuracy of diagnosis. • A decision tree is descriptive and predictive in differentiating between clinical entities. • A decision tree can reliably differentiate Parkinson's disease from multiple system atrophy.

Development of a New Decision Tree to Rapidly Screen Chemical Estrogenic Activities of Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Wang, Ting; Li, Weiying; Zheng, Xiaofeng; Lin, Zhifen; Kong, Deyang

2014-02-01

During the last past decades, there is an increasing number of studies about estrogenic activities of the environmental pollutants on amphibians and many determination methods have been proposed. However, these determination methods are time-consuming and expensive, and a rapid and simple method to screen and test the chemicals for estrogenic activities to amphibians is therefore imperative. Herein is proposed a new decision tree formulated not only with physicochemical parameters but also a biological parameter that was successfully used to screen estrogenic activities of the chemicals on amphibians. The biological parameter, CDOCKER interaction energy (Ebinding ) between chemicals and the target proteins was calculated based on the method of molecular docking, and it was used to revise the decision tree formulated by Hong only with physicochemical parameters for screening estrogenic activity of chemicals in rat. According to the correlation between Ebinding of rat and Xenopus laevis, a new decision tree for estrogenic activities in Xenopus laevis is finally proposed. Then it was validated by using the randomly 8 chemicals which can be frequently exposed to Xenopus laevis, and the agreement between the results from the new decision tree and the ones from experiments is generally satisfactory. Consequently, the new decision tree can be used to screen the estrogenic activities of the chemicals, and combinational use of the Ebinding and classical physicochemical parameters can greatly improves Hong's decision tree. Copyright © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Decision-Tree, Rule-Based, and Random Forest Classification of High-Resolution Multispectral Imagery for Wetland Mapping and Inventory

EPA Science Inventory

Efforts are increasingly being made to classify the world’s wetland resources, an important ecosystem and habitat that is diminishing in abundance. There are multiple remote sensing classification methods, including a suite of nonparametric classifiers such as decision-tree...

Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: Effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior

Treesearch

Russell A. Parsons; William E. Mell; Peter McCauley

2011-01-01

Crownfire endangers fire fighters and can have severe ecological consequences. Prediction of fire behavior in tree crowns is essential to informed decisions in fire management. Current methods used in fire management do not address variability in crown fuels. New mechanistic physics-based fire models address convective heat transfer with computational fluid dynamics (...

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity-based regionalization concept is not applicable.

A multivariate decision tree analysis of biophysical factors in tropical forest fire occurrence

Treesearch

Rey S. Ofren; Edward Harvey

2000-01-01

A multivariate decision tree model was used to quantify the relative importance of complex hierarchical relationships between biophysical variables and the occurrence of tropical forest fires. The study site is the Huai Kha Kbaeng wildlife sanctuary, a World Heritage Site in northwestern Thailand where annual fires are common and particularly destructive. Thematic...

Decision-tree model for health economic comparison of two long-acting somatostatin receptor ligand devices in France, Germany, and the UK.

PubMed

Marty, Rémi; Roze, Stéphane; Kurth, Hannah

2012-01-01

Long-acting somatostatin receptor ligands (SRL) with product-specific formulation and means of administration are injected periodically in patients with acromegaly and neuroendocrine tumors. A simple decision-tree model aimed at comparing cost savings with ready-to-use Somatuline Autogel(®) (lanreotide) and Sandostatin LAR(®) (octreotide) for the UK, France, and Germany. The drivers of cost savings studied were the reduction of time to administer as well as a reduced baseline risk of clogging during product administration reported for Somatuline Autogel(®). The decision-tree model assumed two settings for SRL administration, ie, by either hospital-based or community-based nurses. In the case of clogging, the first dose was assumed to be lost and a second injection performed. Successful injection depended on the probability of clogging. Direct medical costs were included. A set of scenarios were run, varying the cost drivers, such as the baseline risk of clogging, SRL administration time, and percentage of patients injected during a hospital stay. Costs per successful injection were less for Somatuline Autogel(®)/Depot, ranging from Euros (EUR) 13-45, EUR 52-108, and EUR 127-151, respectively, for France, Germany, and the UK. The prices for both long-acting SRL were the same in France, and cost savings came to 100% from differences other than drug prices. For Germany and the UK, the proportion of savings due to less clogging and shorter administration time was estimated to be around 32% and 20%, respectively. Based on low and high country-specific patient cohort size estimations of individuals eligible for SRL treatment among the patient population with acromegaly and neuroendocrine tumors, annual savings were estimated to be up to EUR 2,000,000 for France, EUR 6,000,000 for Germany, and EUR 7,000,000 for the UK. This model suggests that increasing usage of the Somatuline device for injection of SRL might lead to substantial savings for health care providers across Europe.

Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

PubMed

Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

2015-07-01

The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

Improving clinical models based on knowledge extracted from current datasets: a new approach.

PubMed

Mendes, D; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Morais, J

2016-08-01

The Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death in the world, being prevention recognized to be a key intervention able to contradict this reality. In this context, although there are several models and scores currently used in clinical practice to assess the risk of a new cardiovascular event, they present some limitations. The goal of this paper is to improve the CVD risk prediction taking into account the current models as well as information extracted from real and recent datasets. This approach is based on a decision tree scheme in order to assure the clinical interpretability of the model. An innovative optimization strategy is developed in order to adjust the decision tree thresholds (rule structure is fixed) based on recent clinical datasets. A real dataset collected in the ambit of the National Registry on Acute Coronary Syndromes, Portuguese Society of Cardiology is applied to validate this work. In order to assess the performance of the new approach, the metrics sensitivity, specificity and accuracy are used. This new approach achieves sensitivity, a specificity and an accuracy values of, 80.52%, 74.19% and 77.27% respectively, which represents an improvement of about 26% in relation to the accuracy of the original score.

Block-Based Connected-Component Labeling Algorithm Using Binary Decision Trees

PubMed Central

Chang, Wan-Yu; Chiu, Chung-Cheng; Yang, Jia-Horng

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a fast labeling algorithm based on block-based concepts. Because the number of memory access points directly affects the time consumption of the labeling algorithms, the aim of the proposed algorithm is to minimize neighborhood operations. Our algorithm utilizes a block-based view and correlates a raster scan to select the necessary pixels generated by a block-based scan mask. We analyze the advantages of a sequential raster scan for the block-based scan mask, and integrate the block-connected relationships using two different procedures with binary decision trees to reduce unnecessary memory access. This greatly simplifies the pixel locations of the block-based scan mask. Furthermore, our algorithm significantly reduces the number of leaf nodes and depth levels required in the binary decision tree. We analyze the labeling performance of the proposed algorithm alongside that of other labeling algorithms using high-resolution images and foreground images. The experimental results from synthetic and real image datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is faster than other methods. PMID:26393597

Mapping environmental susceptibility to Saint Louis encephalitis virus, based on a decision tree model of remotely-sensed data.

PubMed

Rotela, Camilo H; Spinsanti, Lorena I; Lamfri, Mario A; Contigiani, Marta S; Almirón, Walter R; Scavuzzo, Carlos M

2011-11-01

In response to the first human outbreak (January May 2005) of Saint Louis encephalitis (SLE) virus in Córdoba province, Argentina, we developed an environmental SLE virus risk map for the capital, i.e. Córdoba city. The aim was to provide a map capable of detecting macro-environmental factors associated with the spatial distribution of SLE cases, based on remotely sensed data and a geographical information system. Vegetation, soil brightness, humidity status, distances to water-bodies and areas covered by vegetation were assessed based on pre-outbreak images provided by the Landsat 5TM satellite. A strong inverse relationship between the number of humans infected by SLEV and distance to high-vigor vegetation was noted. A statistical non-hierarchic decision tree model was constructed, based on environmental variables representing the areas surrounding patient residences. From this point of view, 18% of the city could be classified as being at high risk for SLEV infection, while 34% carried a low risk, or none at all. Taking the whole 2005 epidemic into account, 80% of the cases came from areas classified by the model as medium-high or high risk. Almost 46% of the cases were registered in high-risk areas, while there were no cases (0%) in areas affirmed as risk free.

Intelligent Diagnostic Assistant for Complicated Skin Diseases through C5's Algorithm.

PubMed

Jeddi, Fatemeh Rangraz; Arabfard, Masoud; Kermany, Zahra Arab

2017-09-01

Intelligent Diagnostic Assistant can be used for complicated diagnosis of skin diseases, which are among the most common causes of disability. The aim of this study was to design and implement a computerized intelligent diagnostic assistant for complicated skin diseases through C5's Algorithm. An applied-developmental study was done in 2015. Knowledge base was developed based on interviews with dermatologists through questionnaires and checklists. Knowledge representation was obtained from the train data in the database using Excel Microsoft Office. Clementine Software and C5's Algorithms were applied to draw the decision tree. Analysis of test accuracy was performed based on rules extracted using inference chains. The rules extracted from the decision tree were entered into the CLIPS programming environment and the intelligent diagnostic assistant was designed then. The rules were defined using forward chaining inference technique and were entered into Clips programming environment as RULE. The accuracy and error rates obtained in the training phase from the decision tree were 99.56% and 0.44%, respectively. The accuracy of the decision tree was 98% and the error was 2% in the test phase. Intelligent diagnostic assistant can be used as a reliable system with high accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and agreement.

Extensions and applications of ensemble-of-trees methods in machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleich, Justin

Ensemble-of-trees algorithms have emerged to the forefront of machine learning due to their ability to generate high forecasting accuracy for a wide array of regression and classification problems. Classic ensemble methodologies such as random forests (RF) and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) rely on algorithmic procedures to generate fits to data. In contrast, more recent ensemble techniques such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Dynamic Trees (DT) focus on an underlying Bayesian probability model to generate the fits. These new probability model-based approaches show much promise versus their algorithmic counterparts, but also offer substantial room for improvement. The first part of this thesis focuses on methodological advances for ensemble-of-trees techniques with an emphasis on the more recent Bayesian approaches. In particular, we focus on extensions of BART in four distinct ways. First, we develop a more robust implementation of BART for both research and application. We then develop a principled approach to variable selection for BART as well as the ability to naturally incorporate prior information on important covariates into the algorithm. Next, we propose a method for handling missing data that relies on the recursive structure of decision trees and does not require imputation. Last, we relax the assumption of homoskedasticity in the BART model to allow for parametric modeling of heteroskedasticity. The second part of this thesis returns to the classic algorithmic approaches in the context of classification problems with asymmetric costs of forecasting errors. First we consider the performance of RF and SGB more broadly and demonstrate its superiority to logistic regression for applications in criminology with asymmetric costs. Next, we use RF to forecast unplanned hospital readmissions upon patient discharge with asymmetric costs taken into account. Finally, we explore the construction of stable decision trees for forecasts of violence during probation hearings in court systems.

Two Trees: Migrating Fault Trees to Decision Trees for Real Time Fault Detection on International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Charles; Alena, Richard L.; Robinson, Peter

2004-01-01

We started from ISS fault trees example to migrate to decision trees, presented a method to convert fault trees to decision trees. The method shows that the visualizations of root cause of fault are easier and the tree manipulating becomes more programmatic via available decision tree programs. The visualization of decision trees for the diagnostic shows a format of straight forward and easy understands. For ISS real time fault diagnostic, the status of the systems could be shown by mining the signals through the trees and see where it stops at. The other advantage to use decision trees is that the trees can learn the fault patterns and predict the future fault from the historic data. The learning is not only on the static data sets but also can be online, through accumulating the real time data sets, the decision trees can gain and store faults patterns in the trees and recognize them when they come.

Identifying pollution sources and predicting urban air quality using ensemble learning methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Kunwar P.; Gupta, Shikha; Rai, Premanjali

2013-12-01

In this study, principal components analysis (PCA) was performed to identify air pollution sources and tree based ensemble learning models were constructed to predict the urban air quality of Lucknow (India) using the air quality and meteorological databases pertaining to a period of five years. PCA identified vehicular emissions and fuel combustion as major air pollution sources. The air quality indices revealed the air quality unhealthy during the summer and winter. Ensemble models were constructed to discriminate between the seasonal air qualities, factors responsible for discrimination, and to predict the air quality indices. Accordingly, single decision tree (SDT), decision tree forest (DTF), and decision treeboost (DTB) were constructed and their generalization and predictive performance was evaluated in terms of several statistical parameters and compared with conventional machine learning benchmark, support vector machines (SVM). The DT and SVM models discriminated the seasonal air quality rendering misclassification rate (MR) of 8.32% (SDT); 4.12% (DTF); 5.62% (DTB), and 6.18% (SVM), respectively in complete data. The AQI and CAQI regression models yielded a correlation between measured and predicted values and root mean squared error of 0.901, 6.67 and 0.825, 9.45 (SDT); 0.951, 4.85 and 0.922, 6.56 (DTF); 0.959, 4.38 and 0.929, 6.30 (DTB); 0.890, 7.00 and 0.836, 9.16 (SVR) in complete data. The DTF and DTB models outperformed the SVM both in classification and regression which could be attributed to the incorporation of the bagging and boosting algorithms in these models. The proposed ensemble models successfully predicted the urban ambient air quality and can be used as effective tools for its management.

An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argentiero, P.; Chin, P.; Beaudet, P.

1980-01-01

The classification of large dimensional data sets arising from the merging of remote sensing data with more traditional forms of ancillary data is considered. Decision tree classification, a popular approach to the problem, is characterized by the property that samples are subjected to a sequence of decision rules before they are assigned to a unique class. An automated technique for effective decision tree design which relies only on apriori statistics is presented. This procedure utilizes a set of two dimensional canonical transforms and Bayes table look-up decision rules. An optimal design at each node is derived based on the associated decision table. A procedure for computing the global probability of correct classfication is also provided. An example is given in which class statistics obtained from an actual LANDSAT scene are used as input to the program. The resulting decision tree design has an associated probability of correct classification of .76 compared to the theoretically optimum .79 probability of correct classification associated with a full dimensional Bayes classifier. Recommendations for future research are included.

[Parameter of evidence-based medicine in health care economics].

PubMed

Wasem, J; Siebert, U

1999-08-01

In the view of scarcity of resources, economic evaluations in health care, in which not only effects but also costs related to a medical intervention are examined and a incremental cost-outcome-ratio is build, are an important supplement to the program of evidence based medicine. Outcomes of a medical intervention can be measured by clinical effectiveness, quality-adjusted life years, and monetary evaluation of benefits. As far as costs are concerned, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs and indirect costs have to be considered in an economic evaluation. Data can be used from primary studies or secondary analysis; metaanalysis for synthesizing of data may be adequate. For calculation of incremental cost-benefit-ratios, models of decision analysis (decision tree models, Markov-models) often are necessary. Methodological and ethical limits for application of the results of economic evaluation in resource allocation decision in health care have to be regarded: Economic evaluations and the calculation of cost-outcome-rations should only support decision making but cannot replace it.

Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 western US conifers using the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

Treesearch

Sharon Hood; Duncan Lutes

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of fire-caused tree mortality is critical for making sound land management decisions such as developing burning prescriptions and post-fire management guidelines. To improve efforts to predict post-fire tree mortality, we developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 Western conifer species - white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. &...

Comparison of two data mining techniques in labeling diagnosis to Iranian pharmacy claim dataset: artificial neural network (ANN) versus decision tree model.

PubMed

Rezaei-Darzi, Ehsan; Farzadfar, Farshad; Hashemi-Meshkini, Amir; Navidi, Iman; Mahmoudi, Mahmoud; Varmaghani, Mehdi; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Soudi Alamdari, Mahsa; Tayefi, Batool; Naderimagham, Shohreh; Soleymani, Fatemeh; Mesdaghinia, Alireza; Delavari, Alireza; Mohammad, Kazem

2014-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate and compare the prediction accuracy of two data mining techniques, including decision tree and neural network models in labeling diagnosis to gastrointestinal prescriptions in Iran. This study was conducted in three phases: data preparation, training phase, and testing phase. A sample from a database consisting of 23 million pharmacy insurance claim records, from 2004 to 2011 was used, in which a total of 330 prescriptions were assessed and used to train and test the models simultaneously. In the training phase, the selected prescriptions were assessed by both a physician and a pharmacist separately and assigned a diagnosis. To test the performance of each model, a k-fold stratified cross validation was conducted in addition to measuring their sensitivity and specificity. Generally, two methods had very similar accuracies. Considering the weighted average of true positive rate (sensitivity) and true negative rate (specificity), the decision tree had slightly higher accuracy in its ability for correct classification (83.3% and 96% versus 80.3% and 95.1%, respectively). However, when the weighted average of ROC area (AUC between each class and all other classes) was measured, the ANN displayed higher accuracies in predicting the diagnosis (93.8% compared with 90.6%). According to the result of this study, artificial neural network and decision tree model represent similar accuracy in labeling diagnosis to GI prescription.

The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis.

PubMed

Dias, Cláudia Camila; Pereira Rodrigues, Pedro; Fernandes, Samuel; Portela, Francisco; Ministro, Paula; Martins, Diana; Sousa, Paula; Lago, Paula; Rosa, Isadora; Correia, Luis; Moura Santos, Paula; Magro, Fernando

2017-01-01

Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.

Interacting with mobile devices by fusion eye and hand gestures recognition systems based on decision tree approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elleuch, Hanene; Wali, Ali; Samet, Anis; Alimi, Adel M.

2017-03-01

Two systems of eyes and hand gestures recognition are used to control mobile devices. Based on a real-time video streaming captured from the device's camera, the first system recognizes the motion of user's eyes and the second one detects the static hand gestures. To avoid any confusion between natural and intentional movements we developed a system to fuse the decision coming from eyes and hands gesture recognition systems. The phase of fusion was based on decision tree approach. We conducted a study on 5 volunteers and the results that our system is robust and competitive.

Modeling small-scale variability in the composition of goshawk habitat on the Kaibab National Forest

Treesearch

Suzanne M. Joy; Robin M. Reich; Richard T. Reynolds

2000-01-01

We used field data, topographical information (elevation, slope, aspect, landform), and Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to model forest vegetative types to a 10-m resolution on the Kaibab National Forest in northern Arizona. Forest types were identified by clustering the field data and then using a decision tree based on the spectral characteristics of a Landsat image...

A new approach to enhance the performance of decision tree for classifying gene expression data.

PubMed

Hassan, Md; Kotagiri, Ramamohanarao

2013-12-20

Gene expression data classification is a challenging task due to the large dimensionality and very small number of samples. Decision tree is one of the popular machine learning approaches to address such classification problems. However, the existing decision tree algorithms use a single gene feature at each node to split the data into its child nodes and hence might suffer from poor performance specially when classifying gene expression dataset. By using a new decision tree algorithm where, each node of the tree consists of more than one gene, we enhance the classification performance of traditional decision tree classifiers. Our method selects suitable genes that are combined using a linear function to form a derived composite feature. To determine the structure of the tree we use the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUC). Experimental analysis demonstrates higher classification accuracy using the new decision tree compared to the other existing decision trees in literature. We experimentally compare the effect of our scheme against other well known decision tree techniques. Experiments show that our algorithm can substantially boost the classification performance of the decision tree.

Automated Decision Tree Classification of Corneal Shape

PubMed Central

Twa, Michael D.; Parthasarathy, Srinivasan; Roberts, Cynthia; Mahmoud, Ashraf M.; Raasch, Thomas W.; Bullimore, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Purpose The volume and complexity of data produced during videokeratography examinations present a challenge of interpretation. As a consequence, results are often analyzed qualitatively by subjective pattern recognition or reduced to comparisons of summary indices. We describe the application of decision tree induction, an automated machine learning classification method, to discriminate between normal and keratoconic corneal shapes in an objective and quantitative way. We then compared this method with other known classification methods. Methods The corneal surface was modeled with a seventh-order Zernike polynomial for 132 normal eyes of 92 subjects and 112 eyes of 71 subjects diagnosed with keratoconus. A decision tree classifier was induced using the C4.5 algorithm, and its classification performance was compared with the modified Rabinowitz–McDonnell index, Schwiegerling’s Z3 index (Z3), Keratoconus Prediction Index (KPI), KISA%, and Cone Location and Magnitude Index using recommended classification thresholds for each method. We also evaluated the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve for each classification method. Results Our decision tree classifier performed equal to or better than the other classifiers tested: accuracy was 92% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.97. Our decision tree classifier reduced the information needed to distinguish between normal and keratoconus eyes using four of 36 Zernike polynomial coefficients. The four surface features selected as classification attributes by the decision tree method were inferior elevation, greater sagittal depth, oblique toricity, and trefoil. Conclusions Automated decision tree classification of corneal shape through Zernike polynomials is an accurate quantitative method of classification that is interpretable and can be generated from any instrument platform capable of raw elevation data output. This method of pattern classification is extendable to other classification problems. PMID:16357645

Heart rate time series characteristics for early detection of infections in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Tambuyzer, T; Guiza, F; Boonen, E; Meersseman, P; Vervenne, H; Hansen, T K; Bjerre, M; Van den Berghe, G; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J M; Meyfroidt, G

2017-04-01

It is difficult to make a distinction between inflammation and infection. Therefore, new strategies are required to allow accurate detection of infection. Here, we hypothesize that we can distinguish infected from non-infected ICU patients based on dynamic features of serum cytokine concentrations and heart rate time series. Serum cytokine profiles and heart rate time series of 39 patients were available for this study. The serum concentration of ten cytokines were measured using blood sampled every 10 min between 2100 and 0600 hours. Heart rate was recorded every minute. Ten metrics were used to extract features from these time series to obtain an accurate classification of infected patients. The predictive power of the metrics derived from the heart rate time series was investigated using decision tree analysis. Finally, logistic regression methods were used to examine whether classification performance improved with inclusion of features derived from the cytokine time series. The AUC of a decision tree based on two heart rate features was 0.88. The model had good calibration with 0.09 Hosmer-Lemeshow p value. There was no significant additional value of adding static cytokine levels or cytokine time series information to the generated decision tree model. The results suggest that heart rate is a better marker for infection than information captured by cytokine time series when the exact stage of infection is not known. The predictive value of (expensive) biomarkers should always be weighed against the routinely monitored data, and such biomarkers have to demonstrate added value.

A review on machine learning principles for multi-view biological data integration.

PubMed

Li, Yifeng; Wu, Fang-Xiang; Ngom, Alioune

2018-03-01

Driven by high-throughput sequencing techniques, modern genomic and clinical studies are in a strong need of integrative machine learning models for better use of vast volumes of heterogeneous information in the deep understanding of biological systems and the development of predictive models. How data from multiple sources (called multi-view data) are incorporated in a learning system is a key step for successful analysis. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review on omics and clinical data integration techniques, from a machine learning perspective, for various analyses such as prediction, clustering, dimension reduction and association. We shall show that Bayesian models are able to use prior information and model measurements with various distributions; tree-based methods can either build a tree with all features or collectively make a final decision based on trees learned from each view; kernel methods fuse the similarity matrices learned from individual views together for a final similarity matrix or learning model; network-based fusion methods are capable of inferring direct and indirect associations in a heterogeneous network; matrix factorization models have potential to learn interactions among features from different views; and a range of deep neural networks can be integrated in multi-modal learning for capturing the complex mechanism of biological systems.

Interpretable Categorization of Heterogeneous Time Series Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Ritchie; Kochenderfer, Mykel J.; Mengshoel, Ole J.; Silbermann, Joshua

2017-01-01

We analyze data from simulated aircraft encounters to validate and inform the development of a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system. The high-dimensional and heterogeneous time series dataset is analyzed to discover properties of near mid-air collisions (NMACs) and categorize the NMAC encounters. Domain experts use these properties to better organize and understand NMAC occurrences. Existing solutions either are not capable of handling high-dimensional and heterogeneous time series datasets or do not provide explanations that are interpretable by a domain expert. The latter is critical to the acceptance and deployment of safety-critical systems. To address this gap, we propose grammar-based decision trees along with a learning algorithm. Our approach extends decision trees with a grammar framework for classifying heterogeneous time series data. A context-free grammar is used to derive decision expressions that are interpretable, application-specific, and support heterogeneous data types. In addition to classification, we show how grammar-based decision trees can also be used for categorization, which is a combination of clustering and generating interpretable explanations for each cluster. We apply grammar-based decision trees to a simulated aircraft encounter dataset and evaluate the performance of four variants of our learning algorithm. The best algorithm is used to analyze and categorize near mid-air collisions in the aircraft encounter dataset. We describe each discovered category in detail and discuss its relevance to aircraft collision avoidance.

An object-oriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Joel Boeder

1999-01-01

LANDIS is a forest landscape model that simulates the interaction of large landscape processes and forest successional dynamics at tree species level. We discuss how object-oriented design (OOD) approaches such as modularity, abstraction and encapsulation are integrated into the design of LANDIS. We show that using OOD approaches, model decisions (olden as model...

A New Biomarkers Feature Pattern Consisting of TNF-α, IL-10, and IL-8 for Blood Stasis Syndrome with Myocardial Ischemia

PubMed Central

Chen, Jianxin; Chuo, Wenjing; Liu, Lei; Lian, Hongjian; Zheng, Lei; Wang, Yong; Xie, Hua; Luo, Liangtao; Zheng, Chenglong; Fu, Bangze; Wang, Wei

2013-01-01

Objective. To explore new diagnostic patterns for syndromes to overcome the insufficiency of obtainable macrocharacteristics and specific biomarkers. Methods. Chinese miniswines were subjected to Ameroid constrictor, placed around the proximal left anterior descending branch. On the 4th week, macrocharacteristics, coronary angiography, echocardiography, and hemorheology indices were detected for diagnosis. IL-1, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α, and hsCRP in serum were detected, and Decision Tree was built. Results. According to current official-issued standard, model animals matched the diagnosis of blood stasis syndrome with myocardial ischemia based on findings, including >90% occlusion, attenuated left ventricular segmental motion, dark red or purple tongues, and higher blood viscosity. Significant decrease of IL-10 and increase of TNF-α were found in model animals. However, in the Decision Tree, besides IL-10 and TNF-α, IL-8 helped to increase the accuracy of classification to 86%. Conclusions. The Decision Tree building with TNF-α, IL-10, and IL-8 is helpful for the diagnosis of blood stasis syndrome in myocardial ischemia animals. What is more is that our data set up a new path to the differentiation of syndrome by feature patterns consisting of multiple biomarkers not only for animals but also for patients. We believe that it will contribute to the standardization and international application of syndromes. PMID:24371451

Fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin: Building regional models from fire history data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D.L.; Agee, James K.

2000-01-01

Fire frequency affects vegetation composition and successional pathways; thus it is essential to understand fire regimes in order to manage natural resources at broad spatial scales. Fire history data are lacking for many regions for which fire management decisions are being made, so models are needed to estimate past fire frequency where local data are not yet available. We developed multiple regression models and tree-based (classification and regression tree, or CART) models to predict fire return intervals across the interior Columbia River basin at 1-km resolution, using georeferenced fire history, potential vegetation, cover type, and precipitation databases. The models combined semiqualitative methods and rigorous statistics. The fire history data are of uneven quality; some estimates are based on only one tree, and many are not cross-dated. Therefore, we weighted the models based on data quality and performed a sensitivity analysis of the effects on the models of estimation errors that are due to lack of cross-dating. The regression models predict fire return intervals from 1 to 375 yr for forested areas, whereas the tree-based models predict a range of 8 to 150 yr. Both types of models predict latitudinal and elevational gradients of increasing fire return intervals. Examination of regional-scale output suggests that, although the tree-based models explain more of the variation in the original data, the regression models are less likely to produce extrapolation errors. Thus, the models serve complementary purposes in elucidating the relationships among fire frequency, the predictor variables, and spatial scale. The models can provide local managers with quantitative information and provide data to initialize coarse-scale fire-effects models, although predictions for individual sites should be treated with caution because of the varying quality and uneven spatial coverage of the fire history database. The models also demonstrate the integration of qualitative and quantitative methods when requisite data for fully quantitative models are unavailable. They can be tested by comparing new, independent fire history reconstructions against their predictions and can be continually updated, as better fire history data become available.

Optimal land use/cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modelling in a Himalayan watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saran, Sameer; Sterk, Geert; Kumar, Suresh

2007-10-01

Land use/cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division into HRU's requires good-quality spatial data on land use/cover. This paper presents different approaches to attain an optimal land use/cover map based on remote sensing imagery for a Himalayan watershed in northern India. First digital classifications using maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and a decision tree classifier were applied. The results obtained from the decision tree were better and even improved after post classification sorting. But the obtained land use/cover map was not sufficient for the delineation of HRUs, since the agricultural land use/cover class did not discriminate between the two major crops in the area i.e. paddy and maize. Therefore we adopted a visual classification approach using optical data alone and also fused with ENVISAT ASAR data. This second step with detailed classification system resulted into better classification accuracy within the 'agricultural land' class which will be further combined with topography and soil type to derive HRU's for physically-based hydrological modelling.

A fuzzy decision tree for fault classification.

PubMed

Zio, Enrico; Baraldi, Piero; Popescu, Irina C

2008-02-01

In plant accident management, the control room operators are required to identify the causes of the accident, based on the different patterns of evolution of the monitored process variables thereby developing. This task is often quite challenging, given the large number of process parameters monitored and the intense emotional states under which it is performed. To aid the operators, various techniques of fault classification have been engineered. An important requirement for their practical application is the physical interpretability of the relationships among the process variables underpinning the fault classification. In this view, the present work propounds a fuzzy approach to fault classification, which relies on fuzzy if-then rules inferred from the clustering of available preclassified signal data, which are then organized in a logical and transparent decision tree structure. The advantages offered by the proposed approach are precisely that a transparent fault classification model is mined out of the signal data and that the underlying physical relationships among the process variables are easily interpretable as linguistic if-then rules that can be explicitly visualized in the decision tree structure. The approach is applied to a case study regarding the classification of simulated faults in the feedwater system of a boiling water reactor.

Predictive mapping of soil organic carbon in wet cultivated lands using classification-tree based models: the case study of Denmark.

PubMed

Bou Kheir, Rania; Greve, Mogens H; Bøcher, Peder K; Greve, Mette B; Larsen, René; McCloy, Keith

2010-05-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is one of the most important carbon stocks globally and has large potential to affect global climate. Distribution patterns of SOC in Denmark constitute a nation-wide baseline for studies on soil carbon changes (with respect to Kyoto protocol). This paper predicts and maps the geographic distribution of SOC across Denmark using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GISs) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned classification trees). Seventeen parameters, i.e. parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, mean curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, flow accumulation, specific catchment area, tangent slope, tangent curvature, steady-state wetness index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Wetness Index (NDWI) and Soil Color Index (SCI) were generated to statistically explain SOC field measurements in the area of interest (Denmark). A large number of tree-based classification models (588) were developed using (i) all of the parameters, (ii) all Digital Elevation Model (DEM) parameters only, (iii) the primary DEM parameters only, (iv), the remote sensing (RS) indices only, (v) selected pairs of parameters, (vi) soil type, parent material and landscape type only, and (vii) the parameters having a high impact on SOC distribution in built pruned trees. The best constructed classification tree models (in the number of three) with the lowest misclassification error (ME) and the lowest number of nodes (N) as well are: (i) the tree (T1) combining all of the parameters (ME=29.5%; N=54); (ii) the tree (T2) based on the parent material, soil type and landscape type (ME=31.5%; N=14); and (iii) the tree (T3) constructed using parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, tangent slope and SCI (ME=30%; N=39). The produced SOC maps at 1:50,000 cartographic scale using these trees are highly matching with coincidence values equal to 90.5% (Map T1/Map T2), 95% (Map T1/Map T3) and 91% (Map T2/Map T3). The overall accuracies of these maps once compared with field observations were estimated to be 69.54% (Map T1), 68.87% (Map T2) and 69.41% (Map T3). The proposed tree models are relatively simple, and may be also applied to other areas. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishing Decision Trees for Predicting Successful Postpyloric Nasoenteric Tube Placement in Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Chen, Weisheng; Sun, Cheng; Wei, Ru; Zhang, Yanlin; Ye, Heng; Chi, Ruibin; Zhang, Yichen; Hu, Bei; Lv, Bo; Chen, Lifang; Zhang, Xiunong; Lan, Huilan; Chen, Chunbo

2016-08-31

Despite the use of prokinetic agents, the overall success rate for postpyloric placement via a self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube is quite low. This retrospective study was conducted in the intensive care units of 11 university hospitals from 2006 to 2016 among adult patients who underwent self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. Success was defined as postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement confirmed by abdominal x-ray scan 24 hours after tube insertion. Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID), simple classification and regression trees (SimpleCart), and J48 methodologies were used to develop decision tree models, and multiple logistic regression (LR) methodology was used to develop an LR model for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of these models. Successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement was confirmed in 427 of 939 patients enrolled. For predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement, the performance of the 3 decision trees was similar in terms of the AUCs: 0.715 for the CHAID model, 0.682 for the SimpleCart model, and 0.671 for the J48 model. The AUC of the LR model was 0.729, which outperformed the J48 model. Both the CHAID and LR models achieved an acceptable discrimination for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement and were useful for intensivists in the setting of self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. © 2016 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Establishing Decision Trees for Predicting Successful Postpyloric Nasoenteric Tube Placement in Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Chen, Weisheng; Sun, Cheng; Wei, Ru; Zhang, Yanlin; Ye, Heng; Chi, Ruibin; Zhang, Yichen; Hu, Bei; Lv, Bo; Chen, Lifang; Zhang, Xiunong; Lan, Huilan; Chen, Chunbo

2018-01-01

Despite the use of prokinetic agents, the overall success rate for postpyloric placement via a self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube is quite low. This retrospective study was conducted in the intensive care units of 11 university hospitals from 2006 to 2016 among adult patients who underwent self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. Success was defined as postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement confirmed by abdominal x-ray scan 24 hours after tube insertion. Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID), simple classification and regression trees (SimpleCart), and J48 methodologies were used to develop decision tree models, and multiple logistic regression (LR) methodology was used to develop an LR model for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of these models. Successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement was confirmed in 427 of 939 patients enrolled. For predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement, the performance of the 3 decision trees was similar in terms of the AUCs: 0.715 for the CHAID model, 0.682 for the SimpleCart model, and 0.671 for the J48 model. The AUC of the LR model was 0.729, which outperformed the J48 model. Both the CHAID and LR models achieved an acceptable discrimination for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement and were useful for intensivists in the setting of self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. © 2016 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Which Types of Leadership Styles Do Followers Prefer? A Decision Tree Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salehzadeh, Reza

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method to find the appropriate leadership styles based on the followers' preferences using the decision tree technique. Design/methodology/approach: Statistical population includes the students of the University of Isfahan. In total, 750 questionnaires were distributed; out of which, 680…

A decision tree approach using silvics to guide planning for forest restoration

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hermann; John S. Kush; John C. Gilbert

2013-01-01

We created a decision tree based on silvics of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) and historical descriptions to develop approaches for restoration management at Horseshoe Bend National Military Park located in central Alabama. A National Park Service goal is to promote structure and composition of a forest that likely surrounded the 1814 battlefield....

Hydrochemical analysis of groundwater using a tree-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litaor, M. Iggy; Brielmann, H.; Reichmann, O.; Shenker, M.

2010-06-01

SummaryHydrochemical indices are commonly used to ascertain aquifer characteristics, salinity problems, anthropogenic inputs and resource management, among others. This study was conducted to test the applicability of a binary decision tree model to aquifer evaluation using hydrochemical indices as input. The main advantage of the tree-based model compared to other commonly used statistical procedures such as cluster and factor analyses is the ability to classify groundwater samples with assigned probability and the reduction of a large data set into a few significant variables without creating new factors. We tested the model using data sets collected from headwater springs of the Jordan River, Israel. The model evaluation consisted of several levels of complexity, from simple separation between the calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate water type of karstic aquifers to the more challenging separation of calcium-sodium-bicarbonate water type flowing through perched and regional basaltic aquifers. In all cases, the model assigned measures for goodness of fit in the form of misclassification errors and singled out the most significant variable in the analysis. The model proceeded through a sequence of partitions providing insight into different possible pathways and changing lithology. The model results were extremely useful in constraining the interpretation of geological heterogeneity and constructing a conceptual flow model for a given aquifer. The tree model clearly identified the hydrochemical indices that were excluded from the analysis, thus providing information that can lead to a decrease in the number of routinely analyzed variables and a significant reduction in laboratory cost.

Can Classification Tree Analyses Help Improve Decision Making About Treatments for Depression and Anxiety Disorders? A Preliminary Investigation

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Louisa; Naumann, Ulrike M.

2011-01-01

Objective: To identify how decisions about treatment are being made in secondary services for anxiety disorders and depression and, specifically, whether it was possible to predict the decisions to refer for evidence-based treatments. Method: Post hoc classification tree analysis was performed using a sample from an audit on implementation of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence Guidelines for Depression and Anxiety Disorders. The audit was of 5 teams offering secondary care services; they included psychiatrists, psychologists, community psychiatric nurses, social workers, dual-diagnosis workers, and vocational workers. The patient sample included all of those with a primary problem of depression (n = 56) or an anxiety disorder (n = 16) who were offered treatment from February 16 to April 3, 2009. The outcome variable was whether or not evidence-based treatments were offered, and the predictor variables were presenting problem, risk, comorbid problem, social problems, and previous psychiatric history. Results: Treatment decisions could be more accurately predicted for anxiety disorders (93% correct) than for depression (55%). For anxiety disorders, the presence or absence of social problems was a good predictor for whether evidence-based or non–evidence-based treatments were offered; 44% (4/9) of those with social problems vs 100% (6/6) of those without social problems were offered evidence-based treatments. For depression, patients’ risk rating had the largest impact on treatment decisions, although no one variable could be identified as individually predictive of all treatment decisions. Conclusions: Treatment decisions were generally consistent for anxiety disorders but more idiosyncratic for depression, making the development of a decision-making model very difficult for depression. The lack of clarity of some terms in the clinical guidelines and the more complex nature of depression could be factors contributing to this difficulty. Further research is needed to understand the complex nature of decision making with depressed patients. PMID:22295255

Rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems in the presence of trees.

PubMed

Scholz, Miklas; Uzomah, Vincent C

2013-08-01

The retrofitting of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) such as permeable pavements is currently undertaken ad hoc using expert experience supported by minimal guidance based predominantly on hard engineering variables. There is a lack of practical decision support tools useful for a rapid assessment of the potential of ecosystem services when retrofitting permeable pavements in urban areas that either feature existing trees or should be planted with trees in the near future. Thus the aim of this paper is to develop an innovative rapid decision support tool based on novel ecosystem service variables for retrofitting of permeable pavement systems close to trees. This unique tool proposes the retrofitting of permeable pavements that obtained the highest ecosystem service score for a specific urban site enhanced by the presence of trees. This approach is based on a novel ecosystem service philosophy adapted to permeable pavements rather than on traditional engineering judgement associated with variables based on quick community and environment assessments. For an example case study area such as Greater Manchester, which was dominated by Sycamore and Common Lime, a comparison with the traditional approach of determining community and environment variables indicates that permeable pavements are generally a preferred SuDS option. Permeable pavements combined with urban trees received relatively high scores, because of their great potential impact in terms of water and air quality improvement, and flood control, respectively. The outcomes of this paper are likely to lead to more combined permeable pavement and tree systems in the urban landscape, which are beneficial for humans and the environment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural Equation Model Trees

PubMed Central

Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

2015-01-01

In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree structures that separate a data set recursively into subsets with significantly different parameter estimates in a SEM. SEM Trees provide means for finding covariates and covariate interactions that predict differences in structural parameters in observed as well as in latent space and facilitate theory-guided exploration of empirical data. We describe the methodology, discuss theoretical and practical implications, and demonstrate applications to a factor model and a linear growth curve model. PMID:22984789

Very short-term reactive forecasting of the solar ultraviolet index using an extreme learning machine integrated with the solar zenith angle.

PubMed

Deo, Ravinesh C; Downs, Nathan; Parisi, Alfio V; Adamowski, Jan F; Quilty, John M

2017-05-01

Exposure to erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that contributes to malignant keratinocyte cancers and associated health-risk is best mitigated through innovative decision-support systems, with global solar UV index (UVI) forecast necessary to inform real-time sun-protection behaviour recommendations. It follows that the UVI forecasting models are useful tools for such decision-making. In this study, a model for computationally-efficient data-driven forecasting of diffuse and global very short-term reactive (VSTR) (10-min lead-time) UVI, enhanced by drawing on the solar zenith angle (θ s ) data, was developed using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. An ELM algorithm typically serves to address complex and ill-defined forecasting problems. UV spectroradiometer situated in Toowoomba, Australia measured daily cycles (0500-1700h) of UVI over the austral summer period. After trialling activations functions based on sine, hard limit, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid and triangular and radial basis networks for best results, an optimal ELM architecture utilising logarithmic sigmoid equation in hidden layer, with lagged combinations of θ s as the predictor data was developed. ELM's performance was evaluated using statistical metrics: correlation coefficient (r), Willmott's Index (WI), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E NS ), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) between observed and forecasted UVI. Using these metrics, the ELM model's performance was compared to that of existing methods: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 Model Tree, and a semi-empirical (Pro6UV) clear sky model. Based on RMSE and MAE values, the ELM model (0.255, 0.346, respectively) outperformed the MARS (0.310, 0.438) and M5 Model Tree (0.346, 0.466) models. Concurring with these metrics, the Willmott's Index for the ELM, MARS and M5 Model Tree models were 0.966, 0.942 and 0.934, respectively. About 57% of the ELM model's absolute errors were small in magnitude (±0.25), whereas the MARS and M5 Model Tree models generated 53% and 48% of such errors, respectively, indicating the latter models' errors to be distributed in larger magnitude error range. In terms of peak global UVI forecasting, with half the level of error, the ELM model outperformed MARS and M5 Model Tree. A comparison of the magnitude of hourly-cumulated errors of 10-min lead time forecasts for diffuse and global UVI highlighted ELM model's greater accuracy compared to MARS, M5 Model Tree or Pro6UV models. This confirmed the versatility of an ELM model drawing on θ s data for VSTR forecasting of UVI at near real-time horizon. When applied to the goal of enhancing expert systems, ELM-based accurate forecasts capable of reacting quickly to measured conditions can enhance real-time exposure advice for the public, mitigating the potential for solar UV-exposure-related disease. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using decision trees to understand structure in missing data

PubMed Central

Tierney, Nicholas J; Harden, Fiona A; Harden, Maurice J; Mengersen, Kerrie L

2015-01-01

Objectives Demonstrate the application of decision trees—classification and regression trees (CARTs), and their cousins, boosted regression trees (BRTs)—to understand structure in missing data. Setting Data taken from employees at 3 different industrial sites in Australia. Participants 7915 observations were included. Materials and methods The approach was evaluated using an occupational health data set comprising results of questionnaires, medical tests and environmental monitoring. Statistical methods included standard statistical tests and the ‘rpart’ and ‘gbm’ packages for CART and BRT analyses, respectively, from the statistical software ‘R’. A simulation study was conducted to explore the capability of decision tree models in describing data with missingness artificially introduced. Results CART and BRT models were effective in highlighting a missingness structure in the data, related to the type of data (medical or environmental), the site in which it was collected, the number of visits, and the presence of extreme values. The simulation study revealed that CART models were able to identify variables and values responsible for inducing missingness. There was greater variation in variable importance for unstructured as compared to structured missingness. Discussion Both CART and BRT models were effective in describing structural missingness in data. CART models may be preferred over BRT models for exploratory analysis of missing data, and selecting variables important for predicting missingness. BRT models can show how values of other variables influence missingness, which may prove useful for researchers. Conclusions Researchers are encouraged to use CART and BRT models to explore and understand missing data. PMID:26124509

Event Classification and Identification Based on the Characteristic Ellipsoid of Phasor Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Jian; Diao, Ruisheng; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-09-23

In this paper, a method to classify and identify power system events based on the characteristic ellipsoid of phasor measurement is presented. The decision tree technique is used to perform the event classification and identification. Event types, event locations and clearance times are identified by decision trees based on the indices of the characteristic ellipsoid. A sufficiently large number of transient events were simulated on the New England 10-machine 39-bus system based on different system configurations. Transient simulations taking into account different event types, clearance times and various locations are conducted to simulate phasor measurement. Bus voltage magnitudes and recordedmore » reactive and active power flows are used to build the characteristic ellipsoid. The volume, eccentricity, center and projection of the longest axis in the parameter space coordinates of the characteristic ellipsoids are used to classify and identify events. Results demonstrate that the characteristic ellipsoid and the decision tree are capable to detect the event type, location, and clearance time with very high accuracy.« less

Prediction of Mortality in Patients with Isolated Traumatic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using a Decision Tree Classifier: A Retrospective Analysis Based on a Trauma Registry System.

PubMed

Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Kuo, Pao-Jen; Chen, Yi-Chun; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2017-11-22

Background: In contrast to patients with traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH) in the presence of other types of intracranial hemorrhage, the prognosis of patients with isolated tSAH is good. The incidence of mortality in these patients ranges from 0-2.5%. However, few data or predictive models are available for the identification of patients with a high mortality risk. In this study, we aimed to construct a model for mortality prediction using a decision tree (DT) algorithm, along with data obtained from a population-based trauma registry, in a Level 1 trauma center. Methods: Five hundred and forty-five patients with isolated tSAH, including 533 patients who survived and 12 who died, between January 2009 and December 2016, were allocated to training ( n = 377) or test ( n = 168) sets. Using the data on demographics and injury characteristics, as well as laboratory data of the patients, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed based on the Gini impurity index, using the rpart function in the rpart package in R. Results: In this established DT model, three nodes (head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score ≤4, creatinine (Cr) <1.4 mg/dL, and age <76 years) were identified as important determinative variables in the prediction of mortality. Of the patients with isolated tSAH, 60% of those with a head AIS >4 died, as did the 57% of those with an AIS score ≤4, but Cr ≥1.4 and age ≥76 years. All patients who did not meet the above-mentioned criteria survived. With all the variables in the model, the DT achieved an accuracy of 97.9% (sensitivity of 90.9% and specificity of 98.1%) and 97.7% (sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 97.7%), for the training set and test set, respectively. Conclusions: The study established a DT model with three nodes (head AIS score ≤4, Cr <1.4, and age <76 years) to predict fatal outcomes in patients with isolated tSAH. The proposed decision-making algorithm may help identify patients with a high risk of mortality.

Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model

PubMed Central

Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

2015-01-01

Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework. PMID:26543899

Optimizing Negotiation Conflict in the Cloud Service Negotiation Framework Using Probabilistic Decision Making Model.

PubMed

Rajavel, Rajkumar; Thangarathinam, Mala

2015-01-01

Optimization of negotiation conflict in the cloud service negotiation framework is identified as one of the major challenging issues. This negotiation conflict occurs during the bilateral negotiation process between the participants due to the misperception, aggressive behavior, and uncertain preferences and goals about their opponents. Existing research work focuses on the prerequest context of negotiation conflict optimization by grouping similar negotiation pairs using distance, binary, context-dependent, and fuzzy similarity approaches. For some extent, these approaches can maximize the success rate and minimize the communication overhead among the participants. To further optimize the success rate and communication overhead, the proposed research work introduces a novel probabilistic decision making model for optimizing the negotiation conflict in the long-term negotiation context. This decision model formulates the problem of managing different types of negotiation conflict that occurs during negotiation process as a multistage Markov decision problem. At each stage of negotiation process, the proposed decision model generates the heuristic decision based on the past negotiation state information without causing any break-off among the participants. In addition, this heuristic decision using the stochastic decision tree scenario can maximize the revenue among the participants available in the cloud service negotiation framework.

Assessing visual green effects of individual urban trees using airborne Lidar data.

PubMed

Chen, Ziyue; Xu, Bing; Gao, Bingbo

2015-12-01

Urban trees benefit people's daily life in terms of air quality, local climate, recreation and aesthetics. Among these functions, a growing number of studies have been conducted to understand the relationship between residents' preference towards local environments and visual green effects of urban greenery. However, except for on-site photography, there are few quantitative methods to calculate green visibility, especially tree green visibility, from viewers' perspectives. To fill this research gap, a case study was conducted in the city of Cambridge, which has a diversity of tree species, sizes and shapes. Firstly, a photograph-based survey was conducted to approximate the actual value of visual green effects of individual urban trees. In addition, small footprint airborne Lidar (Light detection and ranging) data was employed to measure the size and shape of individual trees. Next, correlations between visual tree green effects and tree structural parameters were examined. Through experiments and gradual refinement, a regression model with satisfactory R2 and limited large errors is proposed. Considering the diversity of sample trees and the result of cross-validation, this model has the potential to be applied to other study sites. This research provides urban planners and decision makers with an innovative method to analyse and evaluate landscape patterns in terms of tree greenness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria evaluation of simulated logging scenarios in a tropical rain forest.

PubMed

Huth, Andreas; Drechsler, Martin; Köhler, Peter

2004-07-01

Forest growth models are useful tools for investigating the long-term impacts of logging. In this paper, the results of the rain forest growth model FORMIND were assessed by a multicriteria decision analysis. The main processes covered by FORMIND include tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. Tree growth is calculated based on a carbon balance approach. Trees compete for light and space; dying large trees fall down and create gaps in the forest. Sixty-four different logging scenarios for an initially undisturbed forest stand at Deramakot (Malaysia) were simulated. The scenarios differ regarding the logging cycle, logging method, cutting limit and logging intensity. We characterise the impacts with four criteria describing the yield, canopy opening and changes in species composition. Multicriteria decision analysis was used for the first time to evaluate the scenarios and identify the efficient ones. Our results plainly show that reduced-impact logging scenarios are more 'efficient' than the others, since in these scenarios forest damage is minimised without significantly reducing yield. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between yield and achieving a desired ecological state of logged forest; the ecological state of the logged forests can only be improved by reducing yields and enlarging the logging cycles. Our study also demonstrates that high cutting limits or low logging intensities cannot compensate for the high level of damage caused by conventional logging techniques.

Modeling the Emergent Impacts of Harvesting Acadian Forests over 100+ Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luus, K. A.; Plug, L. J.

2007-12-01

Harvesting strategies and policies for Acadian forest in Nova Scotia, Canada, presently are set using Decision Support Models (DSMs) that aim to maximize the long-term (>100y) value of forests through decisions implemented over short time horizons (5-80 years). However, DSMs typically are aspatial, lack ecological processes and do not treat erosion, so the long-term (>100y) emergent impacts of the prescribed forestry decisions on erosion and vegetation in Acadian forests remain poorly known. To better understand these impacts, we created an equation-based model that simulates the evolution of a ≥4 km2 forest in time steps of 1 y and at a spatial resolution of 3 m2, the footprint of a single mature tree. The model combines 1) ecological processes of recruitment, competition, and mortality; 2) geomorphic processes of hillslope erosion; 3) anthropic processes of tree harvesting, replanting, and road construction under constraints imposed by regulations and cost/benefit ratio. The model uses digital elevation models, parameters (where available), and calibration (where measurements are not available) for conditions presently found in central Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The model is unique because it 1) deals with the impacts of harvesting on an Acadian forest; and 2) vegetation and erosion are coupled. The model was tested by comparing the species-specific biomass of long-term (40 y) forest plot data to simulated results. At the spatial scale of individual 1 ha plots, model predictions presently account for approximately 50% of observed biomass changes through time, but predictions are hampered by the effects of serendipitous "random" events such as single tree windfall. Harvesting increases the cumulative erosion over 3000 years by 240% when compared to an old growth forest and significantly suppresses the growth of Balsam Fir and Sugar Maple. We discuss further tests of the model, and how it might be used to investigate the long-term sustainability of the recommendations made by DSMs and to better understand the relationship between vegetation, erosion, and forest management strategies.

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69-75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients. PMID:20003229

A finite element-based machine learning approach for modeling the mechanical behavior of the breast tissues under compression in real-time.

PubMed

Martínez-Martínez, F; Rupérez-Moreno, M J; Martínez-Sober, M; Solves-Llorens, J A; Lorente, D; Serrano-López, A J; Martínez-Sanchis, S; Monserrat, C; Martín-Guerrero, J D

2017-11-01

This work presents a data-driven method to simulate, in real-time, the biomechanical behavior of the breast tissues in some image-guided interventions such as biopsies or radiotherapy dose delivery as well as to speed up multimodal registration algorithms. Ten real breasts were used for this work. Their deformation due to the displacement of two compression plates was simulated off-line using the finite element (FE) method. Three machine learning models were trained with the data from those simulations. Then, they were used to predict in real-time the deformation of the breast tissues during the compression. The models were a decision tree and two tree-based ensemble methods (extremely randomized trees and random forest). Two different experimental setups were designed to validate and study the performance of these models under different conditions. The mean 3D Euclidean distance between nodes predicted by the models and those extracted from the FE simulations was calculated to assess the performance of the models in the validation set. The experiments proved that extremely randomized trees performed better than the other two models. The mean error committed by the three models in the prediction of the nodal displacements was under 2 mm, a threshold usually set for clinical applications. The time needed for breast compression prediction is sufficiently short to allow its use in real-time (<0.2 s). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scalable Regression Tree Learning on Hadoop using OpenPlanet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Wei; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor

As scientific and engineering domains attempt to effectively analyze the deluge of data arriving from sensors and instruments, machine learning is becoming a key data mining tool to build prediction models. Regression tree is a popular learning model that combines decision trees and linear regression to forecast numerical target variables based on a set of input features. Map Reduce is well suited for addressing such data intensive learning applications, and a proprietary regression tree algorithm, PLANET, using MapReduce has been proposed earlier. In this paper, we describe an open source implement of this algorithm, OpenPlanet, on the Hadoop framework usingmore » a hybrid approach. Further, we evaluate the performance of OpenPlanet using realworld datasets from the Smart Power Grid domain to perform energy use forecasting, and propose tuning strategies of Hadoop parameters to improve the performance of the default configuration by 75% for a training dataset of 17 million tuples on a 64-core Hadoop cluster on FutureGrid.« less

Classifying dysmorphic syndromes by using artificial neural network based hierarchical decision tree.

PubMed

Özdemir, Merve Erkınay; Telatar, Ziya; Eroğul, Osman; Tunca, Yusuf

2018-05-01

Dysmorphic syndromes have different facial malformations. These malformations are significant to an early diagnosis of dysmorphic syndromes and contain distinctive information for face recognition. In this study we define the certain features of each syndrome by considering facial malformations and classify Fragile X, Hurler, Prader Willi, Down, Wolf Hirschhorn syndromes and healthy groups automatically. The reference points are marked on the face images and ratios between the points' distances are taken into consideration as features. We suggest a neural network based hierarchical decision tree structure in order to classify the syndrome types. We also implement k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) and artificial neural network (ANN) classifiers to compare classification accuracy with our hierarchical decision tree. The classification accuracy is 50, 73 and 86.7% with k-NN, ANN and hierarchical decision tree methods, respectively. Then, the same images are shown to a clinical expert who achieve a recognition rate of 46.7%. We develop an efficient system to recognize different syndrome types automatically in a simple, non-invasive imaging data, which is independent from the patient's age, sex and race at high accuracy. The promising results indicate that our method can be used for pre-diagnosis of the dysmorphic syndromes by clinical experts.

Pricing and reimbursement frameworks in Central Eastern Europe: a decision tool to support choices.

PubMed

Kolasa, Katarzyna; Kalo, Zoltan; Hornby, Edward

2015-02-01

Given limited financial resources in the Central Eastern European (CEE) region, challenges in obtaining access to innovative medical technologies are formidable. The objective of this research was to develop a decision tree that supports decision makers and drug manufacturers from CEE region in their search for optimal innovative pricing and reimbursement scheme (IPRSs). A systematic literature review was performed to search for published IPRSs, and then ten experts from the CEE region were interviewed to ascertain their opinions on these schemes. In total, 33 articles representing 46 unique IPRSs were analyzed. Based on our literature review and subsequent expert input, key decision nodes and branches of the decision tree were developed. The results indicate that outcome-based schemes are better suited to deal with uncertainties surrounding cost effectiveness, while non-outcome-based schemes are more appropriate for pricing and budget impact challenges.

Compensatory value of urban trees in the United States

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane; John F. Dwyer

2002-01-01

Understanding the value of an urban forest can give decision makers a better foundation for urban tree namagement. Based on tree-valuation methods of the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers and field data from eight cities, total compensatory value of tree populations in U.S. cities ranges from $101 million in Jersey City, New Jersey, to $6.2 billion in New York,...

Connecting Psychological Science with Climate Change: A Persuasion and Social Influence Assignment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munro, Geoffrey D.; Behlen, Margaret M.

2017-01-01

Students often have little understanding of the role psychological science plays in informing us about the impact of human behavior when addressing climate change. We designed an assignment for a social psychology course based on Frantz and Mayer's use of the decision tree model of helping behavior to identify the psychological barriers that…

A retrospective analysis to identify the factors affecting infection in patients undergoing chemotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Ji Hyun; Kim, Hyeon-Young; Lee, Hanna; Yun, Eun Kyoung

2015-12-01

This study compares the performance of the logistic regression and decision tree analysis methods for assessing the risk factors for infection in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. The subjects were 732 cancer patients who were receiving chemotherapy at K university hospital in Seoul, Korea. The data were collected between March 2011 and February 2013 and were processed for descriptive analysis, logistic regression and decision tree analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics 19 and Modeler 15.1 programs. The most common risk factors for infection in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy were identified as alkylating agents, vinca alkaloid and underlying diabetes mellitus. The logistic regression explained 66.7% of the variation in the data in terms of sensitivity and 88.9% in terms of specificity. The decision tree analysis accounted for 55.0% of the variation in the data in terms of sensitivity and 89.0% in terms of specificity. As for the overall classification accuracy, the logistic regression explained 88.0% and the decision tree analysis explained 87.2%. The logistic regression analysis showed a higher degree of sensitivity and classification accuracy. Therefore, logistic regression analysis is concluded to be the more effective and useful method for establishing an infection prediction model for patients undergoing chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, David R.

2011-01-01

Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

A method of building of decision trees based on data from wearable device during a rehabilitation of patients with tibia fractures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kupriyanov, M. S., E-mail: mikhail.kupriyanov@gmail.com; Shukeilo, E. Y., E-mail: eyshukeylo@gmail.com; Shichkina, J. A., E-mail: strange.y@mail.ru

2015-11-17

Nowadays technologies which are used in traumatology are a combination of mechanical, electronic, calculating and programming tools. Relevance of development of mobile applications for an expeditious data processing which are received from medical devices (in particular, wearable devices), and formulation of management decisions increases. Using of a mathematical method of building of decision trees for an assessment of a patient’s health condition using data from a wearable device considers in this article.

A method of building of decision trees based on data from wearable device during a rehabilitation of patients with tibia fractures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupriyanov, M. S.; Shukeilo, E. Y.; Shichkina, J. A.

2015-11-01

Nowadays technologies which are used in traumatology are a combination of mechanical, electronic, calculating and programming tools. Relevance of development of mobile applications for an expeditious data processing which are received from medical devices (in particular, wearable devices), and formulation of management decisions increases. Using of a mathematical method of building of decision trees for an assessment of a patient's health condition using data from a wearable device considers in this article.

Naturalistic Decision Making for Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2010-02-01

Motivation – Investigations of large-scale outages in the North American interconnected electric system often attribute the causes to three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. To document and understand the mental processes used by expert operators when making critical decisions, a naturalistic decision making (NDM) model was developed. Transcripts of conversations were analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design – An item analysis indicated that the operators’ Situation Awareness Levels, mental models, and mental simulations can be mapped at different points in the training scenario. This may identify improved training methods or analytical/ visualization tools. Originality/Value – This studymore » applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message – The NDM approach provides a viable framework for systematic training management to accelerate learning in simulator-based training scenarios for power system operators and teams.« less

Decision Tree Algorithm-Generated Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism Barcodes of rbcL Genes for 38 Brassicaceae Species Tagging.

PubMed

Yang, Cheng-Hong; Wu, Kuo-Chuan; Chuang, Li-Yeh; Chang, Hsueh-Wei

2018-01-01

DNA barcode sequences are accumulating in large data sets. A barcode is generally a sequence larger than 1000 base pairs and generates a computational burden. Although the DNA barcode was originally envisioned as straightforward species tags, the identification usage of barcode sequences is rarely emphasized currently. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) association studies provide us an idea that the SNPs may be the ideal target of feature selection to discriminate between different species. We hypothesize that SNP-based barcodes may be more effective than the full length of DNA barcode sequences for species discrimination. To address this issue, we tested a r ibulose diphosphate carboxylase ( rbcL ) S NP b arcoding (RSB) strategy using a decision tree algorithm. After alignment and trimming, 31 SNPs were discovered in the rbcL sequences from 38 Brassicaceae plant species. In the decision tree construction, these SNPs were computed to set up the decision rule to assign the sequences into 2 groups level by level. After algorithm processing, 37 nodes and 31 loci were required for discriminating 38 species. Finally, the sequence tags consisting of 31 rbcL SNP barcodes were identified for discriminating 38 Brassicaceae species based on the decision tree-selected SNP pattern using RSB method. Taken together, this study provides the rational that the SNP aspect of DNA barcode for rbcL gene is a useful and effective sequence for tagging 38 Brassicaceae species.

Evidence integration in model-based tree search

PubMed Central

Solway, Alec; Botvinick, Matthew M.

2015-01-01

Research on the dynamics of reward-based, goal-directed decision making has largely focused on simple choice, where participants decide among a set of unitary, mutually exclusive options. Recent work suggests that the deliberation process underlying simple choice can be understood in terms of evidence integration: Noisy evidence in favor of each option accrues over time, until the evidence in favor of one option is significantly greater than the rest. However, real-life decisions often involve not one, but several steps of action, requiring a consideration of cumulative rewards and a sensitivity to recursive decision structure. We present results from two experiments that leveraged techniques previously applied to simple choice to shed light on the deliberation process underlying multistep choice. We interpret the results from these experiments in terms of a new computational model, which extends the evidence accumulation perspective to multiple steps of action. PMID:26324932

Predicting Error Bars for QSAR Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, Timon; Schwaighofer, Anton; Mika, Sebastian; Ter Laak, Antonius; Suelzle, Detlev; Ganzer, Ursula; Heinrich, Nikolaus; Müller, Klaus-Robert

2007-09-01

Unfavorable physicochemical properties often cause drug failures. It is therefore important to take lipophilicity and water solubility into account early on in lead discovery. This study presents log D7 models built using Gaussian Process regression, Support Vector Machines, decision trees and ridge regression algorithms based on 14556 drug discovery compounds of Bayer Schering Pharma. A blind test was conducted using 7013 new measurements from the last months. We also present independent evaluations using public data. Apart from accuracy, we discuss the quality of error bars that can be computed by Gaussian Process models, and ensemble and distance based techniques for the other modelling approaches.

Fast Screening Technology for Drug Emergency Management: Predicting Suspicious SNPs for ADR with Information Theory-based Models.

PubMed

Liang, Zhaohui; Liu, Jun; Huang, Jimmy X; Zeng, Xing

2018-01-01

The genetic polymorphism of Cytochrome P450 (CYP 450) is considered as one of the main causes for adverse drug reactions (ADRs). In order to explore the latent correlations between ADRs and potentially corresponding single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in CYP450, three algorithms based on information theory are used as the main method to predict the possible relation. The study uses a retrospective case-control study to explore the potential relation of ADRs to specific genomic locations and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). The genomic data collected from 53 healthy volunteers are applied for the analysis, another group of genomic data collected from 30 healthy volunteers excluded from the study are used as the control group. The SNPs respective on five loci of CYP2D6*2,*10,*14 and CYP1A2*1C, *1F are detected by the Applied Biosystem 3130xl. The raw data is processed by ChromasPro to detect the specific alleles on the above loci from each sample. The secondary data are reorganized and processed by R combined with the reports of ADRs from clinical reports. Three information theory based algorithms are implemented for the screening task: JMI, CMIM, and mRMR. If a SNP is selected by more than two algorithms, we are confident to conclude that it is related to the corresponding ADR. The selection results are compared with the control decision tree + LASSO regression model. In the study group where ADRs occur, 10 SNPs are considered relevant to the occurrence of a specific ADR by the combined information theory model. In comparison, only 5 SNPs are considered relevant to a specific ADR by the decision tree + LASSO regression model. In addition, the new method detects more relevant pairs of SNP and ADR which are affected by both SNP and dosage. This implies that the new information theory based model is effective to discover correlations of ADRs and CYP 450 SNPs and is helpful in predicting the potential vulnerable genotype for some ADRs. The newly proposed information theory based model has superiority performance in detecting the relation between SNP and ADR compared to the decision tree + LASSO regression model. The new model is more sensitive to detect ADRs compared to the old method, while the old method is more reliable. Therefore, the selection criteria for selecting algorithms should depend on the pragmatic needs. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Sequential decision tree using the analytic hierarchy process for decision support in rectal cancer.

PubMed

Suner, Aslı; Çelikoğlu, Can Cengiz; Dicle, Oğuz; Sökmen, Selman

2012-09-01

The aim of the study is to determine the most appropriate method for construction of a sequential decision tree in the management of rectal cancer, using various patient-specific criteria and treatments such as surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the priorities of variables. Relevant criteria used in two decision steps and their relative priorities were established by a panel of five general surgeons. Data were collected via a web-based application and analyzed using the "Expert Choice" software specifically developed for the AHP. Consistency ratios in the AHP method were calculated for each set of judgments, and the priorities of sub-criteria were determined. A sequential decision tree was constructed for the best treatment decision process, using priorities determined by the AHP method. Consistency ratios in the AHP method were calculated for each decision step, and the judgments were considered consistent. The tumor-related criterion "presence of perforation" (0.331) and the patient-surgeon-related criterion "surgeon's experience" (0.630) had the highest priority in the first decision step. In the second decision step, the tumor-related criterion "the stage of the disease" (0.230) and the patient-surgeon-related criterion "surgeon's experience" (0.281) were the paramount criteria. The results showed some variation in the ranking of criteria between the decision steps. In the second decision step, for instance, the tumor-related criterion "presence of perforation" was just the fifth. The consistency of decision support systems largely depends on the quality of the underlying decision tree. When several choices and variables have to be considered in a decision, it is very important to determine priorities. The AHP method seems to be effective for this purpose. The decision algorithm developed by this method is more realistic and will improve the quality of the decision tree. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Problem-Oriented Corporate Knowledge Base Models on the Case-Based Reasoning Approach Basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gluhih, I. N.; Akhmadulin, R. K.

2017-07-01

One of the urgent directions of efficiency enhancement of production processes and enterprises activities management is creation and use of corporate knowledge bases. The article suggests a concept of problem-oriented corporate knowledge bases (PO CKB), in which knowledge is arranged around possible problem situations and represents a tool for making and implementing decisions in such situations. For knowledge representation in PO CKB a case-based reasoning approach is encouraged to use. Under this approach, the content of a case as a knowledge base component has been defined; based on the situation tree a PO CKB knowledge model has been developed, in which the knowledge about typical situations as well as specific examples of situations and solutions have been represented. A generalized problem-oriented corporate knowledge base structural chart and possible modes of its operation have been suggested. The obtained models allow creating and using corporate knowledge bases for support of decision making and implementing, training, staff skill upgrading and analysis of the decisions taken. The universal interpretation of terms “situation” and “solution” adopted in the work allows using the suggested models to develop problem-oriented corporate knowledge bases in different subject domains. It has been suggested to use the developed models for making corporate knowledge bases of the enterprises that operate engineer systems and networks at large production facilities.

Bayesian Weibull tree models for survival analysis of clinico-genomic data

PubMed Central

Clarke, Jennifer; West, Mike

2008-01-01

An important goal of research involving gene expression data for outcome prediction is to establish the ability of genomic data to define clinically relevant risk factors. Recent studies have demonstrated that microarray data can successfully cluster patients into low- and high-risk categories. However, the need exists for models which examine how genomic predictors interact with existing clinical factors and provide personalized outcome predictions. We have developed clinico-genomic tree models for survival outcomes which use recursive partitioning to subdivide the current data set into homogeneous subgroups of patients, each with a specific Weibull survival distribution. These trees can provide personalized predictive distributions of the probability of survival for individuals of interest. Our strategy is to fit multiple models; within each model we adopt a prior on the Weibull scale parameter and update this prior via Empirical Bayes whenever the sample is split at a given node. The decision to split is based on a Bayes factor criterion. The resulting trees are weighted according to their relative likelihood values and predictions are made by averaging over models. In a pilot study of survival in advanced stage ovarian cancer we demonstrate that clinical and genomic data are complementary sources of information relevant to survival, and we use the exploratory nature of the trees to identify potential genomic biomarkers worthy of further study. PMID:18618012

Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterstatter, Matthew R.

2005-01-01

The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

Prediction model of critical weight loss in cancer patients during particle therapy.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhihong; Zhu, Yu; Zhang, Lijuan; Wang, Ziying; Wan, Hongwei

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the predictors of critical weight loss in cancer patients receiving particle therapy, and build a prediction model based on its predictive factors. Patients receiving particle therapy were enroled between June 2015 and June 2016. Body weight was measured at the start and end of particle therapy. Association between critical weight loss (defined as >5%) during particle therapy and patients' demographic, clinical characteristic, pre-therapeutic nutrition risk screening (NRS 2002) and BMI were evaluated by logistic regression and decision tree analysis. Finally, 375 cancer patients receiving particle therapy were included. Mean weight loss was 0.55 kg, and 11.5% of patients experienced critical weight loss during particle therapy. The main predictors of critical weight loss during particle therapy were head and neck tumour location, total radiation dose ≥70 Gy on the primary tumour, and without post-surgery, as indicated by both logistic regression and decision tree analysis. Prediction model that includes tumour locations, total radiation dose and post-surgery had a good predictive ability, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.88) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86) for decision tree and logistic regression model, respectively. Cancer patients with head and neck tumour location, total radiation dose ≥70 Gy and without post-surgery were at higher risk of critical weight loss during particle therapy, and early intensive nutrition counselling or intervention should be target at this population. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Modified Decision Tree Algorithm Based on Genetic Algorithm for Mobile User Classification Problem

PubMed Central

Liu, Dong-sheng; Fan, Shu-jiang

2014-01-01

In order to offer mobile customers better service, we should classify the mobile user firstly. Aimed at the limitations of previous classification methods, this paper puts forward a modified decision tree algorithm for mobile user classification, which introduced genetic algorithm to optimize the results of the decision tree algorithm. We also take the context information as a classification attributes for the mobile user and we classify the context into public context and private context classes. Then we analyze the processes and operators of the algorithm. At last, we make an experiment on the mobile user with the algorithm, we can classify the mobile user into Basic service user, E-service user, Plus service user, and Total service user classes and we can also get some rules about the mobile user. Compared to C4.5 decision tree algorithm and SVM algorithm, the algorithm we proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and more simplicity. PMID:24688389

Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2014-04-01

Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a large part of the variance in claim frequency is left unexplained, which is likely to be caused by variations in data at subdistrict scale and missing explanatory variables.

Decision-Tree Formulation With Order-1 Lateral Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2007-01-01

A compact symbolic formulation enables mapping of an arbitrarily complex decision tree of a certain type into a highly computationally efficient multidimensional software object. The type of decision trees to which this formulation applies is that known in the art as the Boolean class of balanced decision trees. Parallel lateral slices of an object created by means of this formulation can be executed in constant time considerably less time than would otherwise be required. Decision trees of various forms are incorporated into almost all large software systems. A decision tree is a way of hierarchically solving a problem, proceeding through a set of true/false responses to a conclusion. By definition, a decision tree has a tree-like structure, wherein each internal node denotes a test on an attribute, each branch from an internal node represents an outcome of a test, and leaf nodes represent classes or class distributions that, in turn represent possible conclusions. The drawback of decision trees is that execution of them can be computationally expensive (and, hence, time-consuming) because each non-leaf node must be examined to determine whether to progress deeper into a tree structure or to examine an alternative. The present formulation was conceived as an efficient means of representing a decision tree and executing it in as little time as possible. The formulation involves the use of a set of symbolic algorithms to transform a decision tree into a multi-dimensional object, the rank of which equals the number of lateral non-leaf nodes. The tree can then be executed in constant time by means of an order-one table lookup. The sequence of operations performed by the algorithms is summarized as follows: 1. Determination of whether the tree under consideration can be encoded by means of this formulation. 2. Extraction of decision variables. 3. Symbolic optimization of the decision tree to minimize its form. 4. Expansion and transformation of all nested conjunctive-disjunctive paths to a flattened conjunctive form composed only of equality checks when possible. If each reduced conjunctive form contains only equality checks and all of these forms use the same variables, then the decision tree can be reduced to an order-one operation through a table lookup. The speedup to order one is accomplished by distributing each decision variable over a surface of a multidimensional object by mapping the equality constant to an index

Evaluation of supervised machine-learning algorithms to distinguish between inflammatory bowel disease and alimentary lymphoma in cats.

PubMed

Awaysheh, Abdullah; Wilcke, Jeffrey; Elvinger, François; Rees, Loren; Fan, Weiguo; Zimmerman, Kurt L

2016-11-01

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and alimentary lymphoma (ALA) are common gastrointestinal diseases in cats. The very similar clinical signs and histopathologic features of these diseases make the distinction between them diagnostically challenging. We tested the use of supervised machine-learning algorithms to differentiate between the 2 diseases using data generated from noninvasive diagnostic tests. Three prediction models were developed using 3 machine-learning algorithms: naive Bayes, decision trees, and artificial neural networks. The models were trained and tested on data from complete blood count (CBC) and serum chemistry (SC) results for the following 3 groups of client-owned cats: normal, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), or alimentary lymphoma (ALA). Naive Bayes and artificial neural networks achieved higher classification accuracy (sensitivities of 70.8% and 69.2%, respectively) than the decision tree algorithm (63%, p < 0.0001). The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for classifying cases into the 3 categories was 83% by naive Bayes, 79% by decision tree, and 82% by artificial neural networks. Prediction models using machine learning provided a method for distinguishing between ALA-IBD, ALA-normal, and IBD-normal. The naive Bayes and artificial neural networks classifiers used 10 and 4 of the CBC and SC variables, respectively, to outperform the C4.5 decision tree, which used 5 CBC and SC variables in classifying cats into the 3 classes. These models can provide another noninvasive diagnostic tool to assist clinicians with differentiating between IBD and ALA, and between diseased and nondiseased cats. © 2016 The Author(s).

Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma.

PubMed

Lorenzo, Daniel; Ochoa, María; Piulats, Josep Maria; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Arias, Luis; Català, Jaum; Grau, María; Peñafiel, Judith; Cobos, Estefanía; Garcia-Bru, Pere; Rubio, Marcos Javier; Padrón-Pérez, Noel; Dias, Bruno; Pera, Joan; Caminal, Josep Maria

2017-12-04

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree. The medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristics were assessed in both groups. Of the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making. The findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.

Context-Sensitive Ethics in School Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lasser, Jon; Klose, Laurie McGarry; Robillard, Rachel

2013-01-01

Ethical codes and licensing rules provide foundational guidance for practicing school psychologists, but these sources fall short in their capacity to facilitate effective decision-making. When faced with ethical dilemmas, school psychologists can turn to decision-making models, but step-wise decision trees frequently lack the situation…

Modelling individual tree height to crown base of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

PubMed Central

Jansa, Václav

2017-01-01

Height to crown base (HCB) of a tree is an important variable often included as a predictor in various forest models that serve as the fundamental tools for decision-making in forestry. We developed spatially explicit and spatially inexplicit mixed-effects HCB models using measurements from a total 19,404 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) on the permanent sample plots that are located across the Czech Republic. Variables describing site quality, stand density or competition, and species mixing effects were included into the HCB model with use of dominant height (HDOM), basal area of trees larger in diameters than a subject tree (BAL- spatially inexplicit measure) or Hegyi’s competition index (HCI—spatially explicit measure), and basal area proportion of a species of interest (BAPOR), respectively. The parameters describing sample plot-level random effects were included into the HCB model by applying the mixed-effects modelling approach. Among several functional forms evaluated, the logistic function was found most suited to our data. The HCB model for Norway spruce was tested against the data originated from different inventory designs, but model for European beech was tested using partitioned dataset (a part of the main dataset). The variance heteroscedasticity in the residuals was substantially reduced through inclusion of a power variance function into the HCB model. The results showed that spatially explicit model described significantly a larger part of the HCB variations [R2adj = 0.86 (spruce), 0.85 (beech)] than its spatially inexplicit counterpart [R2adj = 0.84 (spruce), 0.83 (beech)]. The HCB increased with increasing competitive interactions described by tree-centered competition measure: BAL or HCI, and species mixing effects described by BAPOR. A test of the mixed-effects HCB model with the random effects estimated using at least four trees per sample plot in the validation data confirmed that the model was precise enough for the prediction of HCB for a range of site quality, tree size, stand density, and stand structure. We therefore recommend measuring of HCB on four randomly selected trees of a species of interest on each sample plot for localizing the mixed-effects model and predicting HCB of the remaining trees on the plot. Growth simulations can be made from the data that lack the values for either crown ratio or HCB using the HCB models. PMID:29049391

A hybrid method for classifying cognitive states from fMRI data.

PubMed

Parida, S; Dehuri, S; Cho, S-B; Cacha, L A; Poznanski, R R

2015-09-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) makes it possible to detect brain activities in order to elucidate cognitive-states. The complex nature of fMRI data requires under-standing of the analyses applied to produce possible avenues for developing models of cognitive state classification and improving brain activity prediction. While many models of classification task of fMRI data analysis have been developed, in this paper, we present a novel hybrid technique through combining the best attributes of genetic algorithms (GAs) and ensemble decision tree technique that consistently outperforms all other methods which are being used for cognitive-state classification. Specifically, this paper illustrates the combined effort of decision-trees ensemble and GAs for feature selection through an extensive simulation study and discusses the classification performance with respect to fMRI data. We have shown that our proposed method exhibits significant reduction of the number of features with clear edge classification accuracy over ensemble of decision-trees.

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao Xun

2011-01-01

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Technology transfer by means of fault tree synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batzias, Dimitris F.

2012-12-01

Since Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) attempts to model and analyze failure processes of engineering, it forms a common technique for good industrial practice. On the contrary, fault tree synthesis (FTS) refers to the methodology of constructing complex trees either from dentritic modules built ad hoc or from fault tress already used and stored in a Knowledge Base. In both cases, technology transfer takes place in a quasi-inductive mode, from partial to holistic knowledge. In this work, an algorithmic procedure, including 9 activity steps and 3 decision nodes is developed for performing effectively this transfer when the fault under investigation occurs within one of the latter stages of an industrial procedure with several stages in series. The main parts of the algorithmic procedure are: (i) the construction of a local fault tree within the corresponding production stage, where the fault has been detected, (ii) the formation of an interface made of input faults that might occur upstream, (iii) the fuzzy (to count for uncertainty) multicriteria ranking of these faults according to their significance, and (iv) the synthesis of an extended fault tree based on the construction of part (i) and on the local fault tree of the first-ranked fault in part (iii). An implementation is presented, referring to 'uneven sealing of Al anodic film', thus proving the functionality of the developed methodology.

Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

PubMed Central

Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

PubMed

Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

Central States forest management guides as applied in STEMS.

Treesearch

Nancy R. Walters

1988-01-01

Describes a management prescription system for Central States cover types developed for use in the Central States Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System (STEMS). It includes one management guide for each of the six major cover types in the region. Each guide consists of a decision key that prescribes management, based on stand characteristics and a set of...

Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

PubMed

Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2015-06-01

Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Exploratory reconstructability analysis of accident TBI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwick, Martin; Carney, Nancy; Nettleton, Rosemary

2018-02-01

This paper describes the use of reconstructability analysis to perform a secondary study of traumatic brain injury data from automobile accidents. Neutral searches were done and their results displayed with a hypergraph. Directed searches, using both variable-based and state-based models, were applied to predict performance on two cognitive tests and one neurological test. Very simple state-based models gave large uncertainty reductions for all three DVs and sizeable improvements in percent correct for the two cognitive test DVs which were equally sampled. Conditional probability distributions for these models are easily visualized with simple decision trees. Confounding variables and counter-intuitive findings are also reported.

Development and Validation of a Computational Model Ensemble for the Early Detection of BCRP/ABCG2 Substrates during the Drug Design Stage.

PubMed

Gantner, Melisa E; Peroni, Roxana N; Morales, Juan F; Villalba, María L; Ruiz, María E; Talevi, Alan

2017-08-28

Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP) is an ATP-dependent efflux transporter linked to the multidrug resistance phenomenon in many diseases such as epilepsy and cancer and a potential source of drug interactions. For these reasons, the early identification of substrates and nonsubstrates of this transporter during the drug discovery stage is of great interest. We have developed a computational nonlinear model ensemble based on conformational independent molecular descriptors using a combined strategy of genetic algorithms, J48 decision tree classifiers, and data fusion. The best model ensemble consists in averaging the ranking of the 12 decision trees that showed the best performance on the training set, which also demonstrated a good performance for the test set. It was experimentally validated using the ex vivo everted rat intestinal sac model. Five anticonvulsant drugs classified as nonsubstrates for BRCP by the model ensemble were experimentally evaluated, and none of them proved to be a BCRP substrate under the experimental conditions used, thus confirming the predictive ability of the model ensemble. The model ensemble reported here is a potentially valuable tool to be used as an in silico ADME filter in computer-aided drug discovery campaigns intended to overcome BCRP-mediated multidrug resistance issues and to prevent drug-drug interactions.

A BiomeBGC-based Evaluation of Dryness Stress of Central European Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buddenbaum, H.; Hientgen, J.; Dotzler, S.; Werner, W.; Hill, J.

2015-04-01

Dryness stress is expected to become a more common problem in central European forests due to the predicted regional climate change. Forest management has to adapt to climate change in time and think ahead several decades in decisions on which tree species to plant at which locations. The summer of 2003 was the most severe dryness event in recent time, but more periods like this are expected. Since forests on different sites react quite differently to drought conditions, we used the process-based growth model BiomeBGC and climate time series from sites all over Germany to simulate the reaction of deciduous and coniferous tree stands in different characteristics of drought stress. Times with exceptionally high values of water vapour pressure deficit coincided with negative modelled values of net primary production (NPP). In addition, in these warmest periods the usually positive relationship between temperature and NPP was inversed, i.e., under stress conditions, more sunlight does not lead to more photosynthesis but to stomatal closure and reduced productivity. Thus we took negative NPP as an indicator for drought stress. In most regions, 2003 was the year with the most intense stress, but the results were quite variable regionally. We used the Modis MOD17 gross and net primary production product time series and MOD12 land cover classification to validate the spatial patterns observed in the model runs and found good agreement between modelled and observed behaviour. Thus, BiomeBGC simulations with realistic site parameterization and climate data in combination with species- and variety-specific ecophysiological constants can be used to assist in decisions on which trees to plant on a given site.

Tree value system: users guide.

Treesearch

J.K. Ayer Sachet; D.G. Briggs; R.D. Fight

1989-01-01

This paper instructs resource analysts on use of the Tree Value System (TREEVAL). TREEVAL is a microcomputer system of programs for calculating tree or stand values and volumes based on predicted product recovery. Designed for analyzing silvicultural decisions, the system can also be used for appraisals and for evaluating log bucking. The system calculates results...

Identifying the performance characteristics of a winning outcome in elite mixed martial arts competition.

PubMed

James, Lachlan P; Robertson, Sam; Haff, G Gregory; Beckman, Emma M; Kelly, Vincent G

2017-03-01

To determine those performance indicators that have the greatest influence on classifying outcome at the elite level of mixed martial arts (MMA). A secondary objective was to establish the efficacy of decision tree analysis in explaining the characteristics of victory when compared to alternate statistical methods. Cross-sectional observational. Eleven raw performance indicators from male Ultimate Fighting Championship bouts (n=234) from July 2014 to December 2014 were screened for analysis. Each raw performance indicator was also converted to a rate-dependent measure to be scaled to fight duration. Further, three additional performance indicators were calculated from the dataset and included in the analysis. Cohen's d effect sizes were employed to determine the magnitude of the differences between Wins and Losses, while decision tree (chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID)) and discriminant function analyses (DFA) were used to classify outcome (Win and Loss). Effect size comparisons revealed differences between Wins and Losses across a number of performance indicators. Decision tree (raw: 71.8%; rate-scaled: 76.3%) and DFA (raw: 71.4%; rate-scaled 71.2%) achieved similar classification accuracies. Grappling and accuracy performance indicators were the most influential in explaining outcome. The decision tree models also revealed multiple combinations of performance indicators leading to victory. The decision tree analyses suggest that grappling activity and technique accuracy are of particular importance in achieving victory in elite-level MMA competition. The DFA results supported the importance of these performance indicators. Decision tree induction represents an intuitive and slightly more accurate approach to explaining bout outcome in this sport when compared to DFA. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advanced Subspace Techniques for Modeling Channel and Session Variability in a Speaker Recognition System

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

with each SVM discriminating between a pair of the N total speakers in the data set. The (( + 1))/2 classifiers then vote on the final...classification of a test sample. The Random Forest classifier is an ensemble classifier that votes amongst decision trees generated with each node using...Forest vote , and the effects of overtraining will be mitigated by the fact that each decision tree is overtrained differently (due to the random

Study on Ecological Risk Assessment of Guangxi Coastal Zone Based on 3s Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Z.; Luo, H.; Ling, Z. Y.; Huang, Y.; Ning, W. Y.; Tang, Y. B.; Shao, G. Z.

2018-05-01

This paper takes Guangxi coastal zone as the study area, following the standards of land use type, divides the coastal zone of ecological landscape into seven kinds of natural wetland landscape types such as woodland, farmland, grassland, water, urban land and wetlands. Using TM data of 2000-2015 such 15 years, with the CART decision tree algorithm, for analysis the characteristic of types of landscape's remote sensing image and build decision tree rules of landscape classification to extract information classification. Analyzing of the evolution process of the landscape pattern in Guangxi coastal zone in nearly 15 years, we may understand the distribution characteristics and change rules. Combined with the natural disaster data, we use of landscape index and the related risk interference degree and construct ecological risk evaluation model in Guangxi coastal zone for ecological risk assessment results of Guangxi coastal zone.

The CERAD Neuropsychological Assessment Battery Is Sensitive to Alcohol-Related Cognitive Deficiencies in Elderly Patients: A Retrospective Matched Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Liane; Huber, Stefan; Mayer, Daniel; Moeller, Korbinian; Marksteiner, Josef

2018-04-01

Adverse effects of heavy drinking on cognition have frequently been reported. In the present study, we systematically examined for the first time whether clinical neuropsychological assessments may be sensitive to alcohol abuse in elderly patients with suspected minor neurocognitive disorder. A total of 144 elderly with and without alcohol abuse (each group n=72; mean age 66.7 years) were selected from a patient pool of n=738 by applying propensity score matching (a statistical method allowing to match participants in experimental and control group by balancing various covariates to reduce selection bias). Accordingly, study groups were almost perfectly matched regarding age, education, gender, and Mini Mental State Examination score. Neuropsychological performance was measured using the CERAD (Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease). Classification analyses (i.e., decision tree and boosted trees models) were conducted to examine whether CERAD variables or total score contributed to group classification. Decision tree models disclosed that groups could be reliably classified based on the CERAD variables "Word List Discriminability" (tapping verbal recognition memory, 64% classification accuracy) and "Trail Making Test A" (measuring visuo-motor speed, 59% classification accuracy). Boosted tree analyses further indicated the sensitivity of "Word List Recall" (measuring free verbal recall) for discriminating elderly with versus without a history of alcohol abuse. This indicates that specific CERAD variables seem to be sensitive to alcohol-related cognitive dysfunctions in elderly patients with suspected minor neurocognitive disorder. (JINS, 2018, 24, 360-371).

VC-dimension of univariate decision trees.

PubMed

Yildiz, Olcay Taner

2015-02-01

In this paper, we give and prove the lower bounds of the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC)-dimension of the univariate decision tree hypothesis class. The VC-dimension of the univariate decision tree depends on the VC-dimension values of its subtrees and the number of inputs. Via a search algorithm that calculates the VC-dimension of univariate decision trees exhaustively, we show that our VC-dimension bounds are tight for simple trees. To verify that the VC-dimension bounds are useful, we also use them to get VC-generalization bounds for complexity control using structural risk minimization in decision trees, i.e., pruning. Our simulation results show that structural risk minimization pruning using the VC-dimension bounds finds trees that are more accurate as those pruned using cross validation.

Pathway-based predictive approaches for non-animal assessment of acute inhalation toxicity.

PubMed

Clippinger, Amy J; Allen, David; Behrsing, Holger; BéruBé, Kelly A; Bolger, Michael B; Casey, Warren; DeLorme, Michael; Gaça, Marianna; Gehen, Sean C; Glover, Kyle; Hayden, Patrick; Hinderliter, Paul; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Iskandar, Anita; Keyser, Brian; Luettich, Karsta; Ma-Hock, Lan; Maione, Anna G; Makena, Patrudu; Melbourne, Jodie; Milchak, Lawrence; Ng, Sheung P; Paini, Alicia; Page, Kathryn; Patlewicz, Grace; Prieto, Pilar; Raabe, Hans; Reinke, Emily N; Roper, Clive; Rose, Jane; Sharma, Monita; Spoo, Wayne; Thorne, Peter S; Wilson, Daniel M; Jarabek, Annie M

2018-06-20

New approaches are needed to assess the effects of inhaled substances on human health. These approaches will be based on mechanisms of toxicity, an understanding of dosimetry, and the use of in silico modeling and in vitro test methods. In order to accelerate wider implementation of such approaches, development of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) can help identify and address gaps in our understanding of relevant parameters for model input and mechanisms, and optimize non-animal approaches that can be used to investigate key events of toxicity. This paper describes the AOPs and the toolbox of in vitro and in silico models that can be used to assess the key events leading to toxicity following inhalation exposure. Because the optimal testing strategy will vary depending on the substance of interest, here we present a decision tree approach to identify an appropriate non-animal integrated testing strategy that incorporates consideration of a substance's physicochemical properties, relevant mechanisms of toxicity, and available in silico models and in vitro test methods. This decision tree can facilitate standardization of the testing approaches. Case study examples are presented to provide a basis for proof-of-concept testing to illustrate the utility of non-animal approaches to inform hazard identification and risk assessment of humans exposed to inhaled substances. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A template-finding algorithm and a comprehensive benchmark for homology modeling of proteins

PubMed Central

Vallat, Brinda Kizhakke; Pillardy, Jaroslaw; Elber, Ron

2010-01-01

The first step in homology modeling is to identify a template protein for the target sequence. The template structure is used in later phases of the calculation to construct an atomically detailed model for the target. We have built from the Protein Data Bank a large-scale learning set that includes tens of millions of pair matches that can be either a true template or a false one. Discriminatory learning (learning from positive and negative examples) is employed to train a decision tree. Each branch of the tree is a mathematical programming model. The decision tree is tested on an independent set from PDB entries and on the sequences of CASP7. It provides significant enrichment of true templates (between 50-100 percent) when compared to PSI-BLAST. The model is further verified by building atomically detailed structures for each of the tentative true templates with modeller. The probability that a true match does not yield an acceptable structural model (within 6Å RMSD from the native structure), decays linearly as a function of the TM structural-alignment score. PMID:18300226

[Hyperspectral Estimation of Apple Tree Canopy LAI Based on SVM and RF Regression].

PubMed

Han, Zhao-ying; Zhu, Xi-cun; Fang, Xian-yi; Wang, Zhuo-yuan; Wang, Ling; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Yuan-mao

2016-03-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is the dynamic index of crop population size. Hyperspectral technology can be used to estimate apple canopy LAI rapidly and nondestructively. It can be provide a reference for monitoring the tree growing and yield estimation. The Red Fuji apple trees of full bearing fruit are the researching objects. Ninety apple trees canopies spectral reflectance and LAI values were measured by the ASD Fieldspec3 spectrometer and LAI-2200 in thirty orchards in constant two years in Qixia research area of Shandong Province. The optimal vegetation indices were selected by the method of correlation analysis of the original spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The models of predicting the LAI were built with the multivariate regression analysis method of support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The new vegetation indices, GNDVI527, ND-VI676, RVI682, FD-NVI656 and GRVI517 and the previous two main vegetation indices, NDVI670 and NDVI705, are in accordance with LAI. In the RF regression model, the calibration set decision coefficient C-R2 of 0.920 and validation set decision coefficient V-R2 of 0.889 are higher than the SVM regression model by 0.045 and 0.033 respectively. The root mean square error of calibration set C-RMSE of 0.249, the root mean square error validation set V-RMSE of 0.236 are lower than that of the SVM regression model by 0.054 and 0.058 respectively. Relative analysis of calibrating error C-RPD and relative analysis of validation set V-RPD reached 3.363 and 2.520, 0.598 and 0.262, respectively, which were higher than the SVM regression model. The measured and predicted the scatterplot trend line slope of the calibration set and validation set C-S and V-S are close to 1. The estimation result of RF regression model is better than that of the SVM. RF regression model can be used to estimate the LAI of red Fuji apple trees in full fruit period.

Predicting Error Bars for QSAR Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schroeter, Timon; Technische Universitaet Berlin, Department of Computer Science, Franklinstrasse 28/29, 10587 Berlin; Schwaighofer, Anton

2007-09-18

Unfavorable physicochemical properties often cause drug failures. It is therefore important to take lipophilicity and water solubility into account early on in lead discovery. This study presents log D{sub 7} models built using Gaussian Process regression, Support Vector Machines, decision trees and ridge regression algorithms based on 14556 drug discovery compounds of Bayer Schering Pharma. A blind test was conducted using 7013 new measurements from the last months. We also present independent evaluations using public data. Apart from accuracy, we discuss the quality of error bars that can be computed by Gaussian Process models, and ensemble and distance based techniquesmore » for the other modelling approaches.« less

Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

PubMed

Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

2018-03-01

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI < 40 who did not receive sirolimus, as high risk (7.3% cumulative incidence of NMSC). The predictions in the derivation set were almost identical to those in the validation set (r 2  = 0.971, p < 0.0001). Cumulative incidence of NMSC in low, moderate and high risk groups at 5/10/20 year was 0.5/1.2/3.3, 2.1/4.8/11.7 and 5.6/11.6/23.1% (p < 0.0001). The decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

The Decision Tree: A Tool for Achieving Behavioral Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saren, Dru

1999-01-01

Presents a "Decision Tree" process for structuring team decision making and problem solving about specific student behavioral goals. The Decision Tree involves a sequence of questions/decisions that can be answered in "yes/no" terms. Questions address reasonableness of the goal, time factors, importance of the goal, responsibilities, safety,…

Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

2015-12-01

The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

A Clinical Decision Support System for Breast Cancer Patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Ana S.; Alves, Pedro; Jarman, Ian H.; Etchells, Terence A.; Fonseca, José M.; Lisboa, Paulo J. G.

This paper proposes a Web clinical decision support system for clinical oncologists and for breast cancer patients making prognostic assessments, using the particular characteristics of the individual patient. This system comprises three different prognostic modelling methodologies: the clinically widely used Nottingham prognostic index (NPI); the Cox regression modelling and a partial logistic artificial neural network with automatic relevance determination (PLANN-ARD). All three models yield a different prognostic index that can be analysed together in order to obtain a more accurate prognostic assessment of the patient. Missing data is incorporated in the mentioned models, a common issue in medical data that was overcome using multiple imputation techniques. Risk group assignments are also provided through a methodology based on regression trees, where Boolean rules can be obtained expressed with patient characteristics.

Optimization of matrix tablets controlled drug release using Elman dynamic neural networks and decision trees.

PubMed

Petrović, Jelena; Ibrić, Svetlana; Betz, Gabriele; Đurić, Zorica

2012-05-30

The main objective of the study was to develop artificial intelligence methods for optimization of drug release from matrix tablets regardless of the matrix type. Static and dynamic artificial neural networks of the same topology were developed to model dissolution profiles of different matrix tablets types (hydrophilic/lipid) using formulation composition, compression force used for tableting and tablets porosity and tensile strength as input data. Potential application of decision trees in discovering knowledge from experimental data was also investigated. Polyethylene oxide polymer and glyceryl palmitostearate were used as matrix forming materials for hydrophilic and lipid matrix tablets, respectively whereas selected model drugs were diclofenac sodium and caffeine. Matrix tablets were prepared by direct compression method and tested for in vitro dissolution profiles. Optimization of static and dynamic neural networks used for modeling of drug release was performed using Monte Carlo simulations or genetic algorithms optimizer. Decision trees were constructed following discretization of data. Calculated difference (f(1)) and similarity (f(2)) factors for predicted and experimentally obtained dissolution profiles of test matrix tablets formulations indicate that Elman dynamic neural networks as well as decision trees are capable of accurate predictions of both hydrophilic and lipid matrix tablets dissolution profiles. Elman neural networks were compared to most frequently used static network, Multi-layered perceptron, and superiority of Elman networks have been demonstrated. Developed methods allow simple, yet very precise way of drug release predictions for both hydrophilic and lipid matrix tablets having controlled drug release. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On Elementary Affective Decisions: To Like Or Not to Like, That Is the Question

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Arthur; Hofmann, Markus J.; Kinder, Annette

2016-01-01

Perhaps the most ubiquitous and basic affective decision of daily life is deciding whether we like or dislike something/somebody, or, in terms of psychological emotion theories, whether the object/subject has positive or negative valence. Indeed, people constantly make such liking decisions within a glimpse and, importantly, often without expecting any obvious benefit or knowing the exact reasons for their judgment. In this paper, we review research on such elementary affective decisions (EADs) that entail no direct overt reward with a special focus on Neurocognitive Poetics and discuss methods and models for investigating the neuronal and cognitive-affective bases of EADs to verbal materials with differing degrees of complexity. In line with evolutionary and appraisal theories of (aesthetic) emotions and data from recent neurocognitive studies, the results of a decision tree modeling approach simulating EADs to single words suggest that a main driving force behind EADs is the extent to which such high-dimensional stimuli are associated with the “basic” emotions joy/happiness and disgust. PMID:27933013

Prediction of strontium bromide laser efficiency using cluster and decision tree analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iliev, Iliycho; Gocheva-Ilieva, Snezhana; Kulin, Chavdar

2018-01-01

Subject of investigation is a new high-powered strontium bromide (SrBr2) vapor laser emitting in multiline region of wavelengths. The laser is an alternative to the atom strontium lasers and electron free lasers, especially at the line 6.45 μm which line is used in surgery for medical processing of biological tissues and bones with minimal damage. In this paper the experimental data from measurements of operational and output characteristics of the laser are statistically processed by means of cluster analysis and tree-based regression techniques. The aim is to extract the more important relationships and dependences from the available data which influence the increase of the overall laser efficiency. There are constructed and analyzed a set of cluster models. It is shown by using different cluster methods that the seven investigated operational characteristics (laser tube diameter, length, supplied electrical power, and others) and laser efficiency are combined in 2 clusters. By the built regression tree models using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) technique there are obtained dependences to predict the values of efficiency, and especially the maximum efficiency with over 95% accuracy.

An Approach for Implementing a Microcomputer Based Report Origination System in the Ada Programming Language

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-01

Decision Tree -------------------- 62 4-E. PACKAGE unitrep Action/Area Selection flow Chart 82 4-7. PACKAGE unitrep Control Flow Chart...the originetor wculd manually draft simple, readable, formatted iressages using "-i predef.ined forms and decision logic trees . This alternative was...Study Analysis DATA CCNTENT ERRORS PERCENT OF ERRORS Character Type 2.1 Calcvlations/Associations 14.3 Message Identification 4.? Value Pisiratch 22.E

An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argentiero, P.; Chin, R.; Beaudet, P.

1982-01-01

An automated technique is presented for designing effective decision tree classifiers predicated only on a priori class statistics. The procedure relies on linear feature extractions and Bayes table look-up decision rules. Associated error matrices are computed and utilized to provide an optimal design of the decision tree at each so-called 'node'. A by-product of this procedure is a simple algorithm for computing the global probability of correct classification assuming the statistical independence of the decision rules. Attention is given to a more precise definition of decision tree classification, the mathematical details on the technique for automated decision tree design, and an example of a simple application of the procedure using class statistics acquired from an actual Landsat scene.

Climate-diameter growth relationships of black spruce and jack pine trees in boreal Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Subedi, Nirmal; Sharma, Mahadev

2013-02-01

To predict the long-term effects of climate change - global warming and changes in precipitation - on the diameter (radial) growth of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) trees in boreal Ontario, we modified an existing diameter growth model to include climate variables. Diameter chronologies of 927 jack pine and 1173 black spruce trees, growing in the area from 47°N to 50°N and 80°W to 92°W, were used to develop diameter growth models in a nonlinear mixed-effects approach. Our results showed that the variables long-term average of mean growing season temperature, precipitation during wettest quarter, and total precipitation during growing season were significant (alpha = 0.05) in explaining variation in diameter growth of the sample trees. Model results indicated that higher temperatures during the growing season would increase the diameter growth of jack pine trees, but decrease that of black spruce trees. More precipitation during the wettest quarter would favor the diameter growth of both species. On the other hand, a wetter growing season, which may decrease radiation inputs, increase nutrient leaching, and reduce the decomposition rate, would reduce the diameter growth of both species. Moreover, our results indicated that future (2041-2070) diameter growth rate may differ from current (1971-2000) growth rates for both species, with conditions being more favorable for jack pine than black spruce trees. Expected future changes in the growth rate of boreal trees need to be considered in forest management decisions. We recommend that knowledge of climate-growth relationships, as represented by models, be combined with learning from adaptive management to reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with forest management decisions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Application Of Decision Tree Approach To Student Selection Model- A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwati; Sudiya, Amby

2016-01-01

The main purpose of the institution is to provide quality education to the students and to improve the quality of managerial decisions. One of the ways to improve the quality of students is to arrange the selection of new students with a more selective. This research takes the case in the selection of new students at Islamic University of Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. One of the university's selection is through filtering administrative selection based on the records of prospective students at the high school without paper testing. Currently, that kind of selection does not yet has a standard model and criteria. Selection is only done by comparing candidate application file, so the subjectivity of assessment is very possible to happen because of the lack standard criteria that can differentiate the quality of students from one another. By applying data mining techniques classification, can be built a model selection for new students which includes criteria to certain standards such as the area of origin, the status of the school, the average value and so on. These criteria are determined by using rules that appear based on the classification of the academic achievement (GPA) of the students in previous years who entered the university through the same way. The decision tree method with C4.5 algorithm is used here. The results show that students are given priority for admission is that meet the following criteria: came from the island of Java, public school, majoring in science, an average value above 75, and have at least one achievement during their study in high school.

Assessment of wastewater treatment facility compliance with decreasing ammonia discharge limits using a regression tree model.

PubMed

Suchetana, Bihu; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Silverstein, JoAnn

2017-11-15

A regression tree-based diagnostic approach is developed to evaluate factors affecting US wastewater treatment plant compliance with ammonia discharge permit limits using Discharge Monthly Report (DMR) data from a sample of 106 municipal treatment plants for the period of 2004-2008. Predictor variables used to fit the regression tree are selected using random forests, and consist of the previous month's effluent ammonia, influent flow rates and plant capacity utilization. The tree models are first used to evaluate compliance with existing ammonia discharge standards at each facility and then applied assuming more stringent discharge limits, under consideration in many states. The model predicts that the ability to meet both current and future limits depends primarily on the previous month's treatment performance. With more stringent discharge limits predicted ammonia concentration relative to the discharge limit, increases. In-sample validation shows that the regression trees can provide a median classification accuracy of >70%. The regression tree model is validated using ammonia discharge data from an operating wastewater treatment plant and is able to accurately predict the observed ammonia discharge category approximately 80% of the time, indicating that the regression tree model can be applied to predict compliance for individual treatment plants providing practical guidance for utilities and regulators with an interest in controlling ammonia discharges. The proposed methodology is also used to demonstrate how to delineate reliable sources of demand and supply in a point source-to-point source nutrient credit trading scheme, as well as how planners and decision makers can set reasonable discharge limits in future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision trees for the analysis of genes involved in Alzheimer's disease pathology.

PubMed

Mestizo Gutiérrez, Sonia L; Herrera Rivero, Marisol; Cruz Ramírez, Nicandro; Hernández, Elena; Aranda-Abreu, Gonzalo E

2014-09-21

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by a gradual loss of memory, orientation, judgement and language. There is still no cure for this disorder. AD pathogenesis remains fairly unknown and its underlying molecular mechanisms are not yet fully understood. Several studies have shown that the abnormal accumulation of beta-amyloid and tau proteins occurs 10 to 20 years before the onset of symptoms of the disease, so it is extremely important to identify changes in the brain before the first symptoms. We used decision trees to classify 31 individuals (9 healthy controls and 22 AD patients in three different stages of disease) according to the expression of 69 genes previously reported in a meta-analysis, plus the expression levels of APP, APOE, BACE1, NCSTN, PSEN1, PSEN2 and MAPT. We also included in our analysis the MMSE (Mini-Mental State Examination) scores and number of NFT (neurofibrillary tangles). Results allowed us to generate a model of classification values for different AD stages of severity, according to MMSE scores, and achieve the identification of the expression level of protein tau that may possibly determine the onset (incipient stage) of AD. We used decision trees to model the different stages of AD (severe, moderate, incipient and control) based on the meta-analysis of gene expression levels plus MMSE and NFT scores. Both classifiers reported the variable MMSE as most informative, however it we were found that the protein tau also an important role in the onset of AD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Rotator Cuff Tears Using Data Mining and Bayesian Likelihood Ratios

PubMed Central

Lu, Hsueh-Yi; Huang, Chen-Yuan; Su, Chwen-Tzeng; Lin, Chen-Chiang

2014-01-01

Objectives Rotator cuff tear is a common cause of shoulder diseases. Correct diagnosis of rotator cuff tears can save patients from further invasive, costly and painful tests. This study used predictive data mining and Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of diagnosing rotator cuff tears by clinical examination alone. Methods In this retrospective study, 169 patients who had a preliminary diagnosis of rotator cuff tear on the basis of clinical evaluation followed by confirmatory MRI between 2007 and 2011 were identified. MRI was used as a reference standard to classify rotator cuff tears. The predictor variable was the clinical assessment results, which consisted of 16 attributes. This study employed 2 data mining methods (ANN and the decision tree) and a statistical method (logistic regression) to classify the rotator cuff diagnosis into “tear” and “no tear” groups. Likelihood ratio and Bayesian theory were applied to estimate the probability of rotator cuff tears based on the results of the prediction models. Results Our proposed data mining procedures outperformed the classic statistical method. The correction rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve of predicting a rotator cuff tear were statistical better in the ANN and decision tree models compared to logistic regression. Based on likelihood ratios derived from our prediction models, Fagan's nomogram could be constructed to assess the probability of a patient who has a rotator cuff tear using a pretest probability and a prediction result (tear or no tear). Conclusions Our predictive data mining models, combined with likelihood ratios and Bayesian theory, appear to be good tools to classify rotator cuff tears as well as determine the probability of the presence of the disease to enhance diagnostic decision making for rotator cuff tears. PMID:24733553

Landslide susceptibility mapping using decision-tree based CHi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) and Logistic regression (LR) integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Althuwaynee, Omar F.; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Ahmad, Noordin

2014-06-01

This article uses methodology based on chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID), as a multivariate method that has an automatic classification capacity to analyse large numbers of landslide conditioning factors. This new algorithm was developed to overcome the subjectivity of the manual categorization of scale data of landslide conditioning factors, and to predict rainfall-induced susceptibility map in Kuala Lumpur city and surrounding areas using geographic information system (GIS). The main objective of this article is to use CHi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) method to perform the best classification fit for each conditioning factor, then, combining it with logistic regression (LR). LR model was used to find the corresponding coefficients of best fitting function that assess the optimal terminal nodes. A cluster pattern of landslide locations was extracted in previous study using nearest neighbor index (NNI), which were then used to identify the clustered landslide locations range. Clustered locations were used as model training data with 14 landslide conditioning factors such as; topographic derived parameters, lithology, NDVI, land use and land cover maps. Pearson chi-squared value was used to find the best classification fit between the dependent variable and conditioning factors. Finally the relationship between conditioning factors were assessed and the landslide susceptibility map (LSM) was produced. An area under the curve (AUC) was used to test the model reliability and prediction capability with the training and validation landslide locations respectively. This study proved the efficiency and reliability of decision tree (DT) model in landslide susceptibility mapping. Also it provided a valuable scientific basis for spatial decision making in planning and urban management studies.

A Decision Tree to Identify Children Affected by Prenatal Alcohol Exposure

PubMed Central

Goh, Patrick K.; Doyle, Lauren R.; Glass, Leila; Jones, Kenneth L.; Riley, Edward P.; Coles, Claire D.; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Kable, Julie A.; May, Philip A.; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Elizabeth, R. Sowell; Wozniak, Jeffrey R.; Mattson, Sarah N.

2017-01-01

Objective To develop and validate a hierarchical decision tree model, combining neurobehavioral and physical measures, for identification of children affected by prenatal alcohol exposure even when facial dysmorphology is not present. Study design Data were collected as part of a multisite study across the United States. The model was developed after evaluating over 1000 neurobehavioral and dysmorphology variables collected from 434 children (8–16y) with prenatal alcohol exposure, with and without fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), and non-exposed controls, with and without other clinically-relevant behavioral or cognitive concerns. The model was subsequently validated in an independent sample of 454 children in two age ranges (5–7y or 10–16y). In all analyses, the discriminatory ability of each model step was tested with logistic regression. Classification accuracies and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Results The model consisted of variables from 4 measures (2 parent questionnaires, an IQ score, and a physical examination). Overall accuracy rates for both the development and validation samples met or exceeded our goal of 80% overall accuracy. Conclusions The decision tree model distinguished children affected by prenatal alcohol exposure from non-exposed controls, including those with other behavioral concerns or conditions. Improving identification of this population will streamline access to clinical services, including multidisciplinary evaluation and treatment. PMID:27476634

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Using decision tree models to depict primary care physicians CRC screening decision heuristics.

PubMed

Wackerbarth, Sarah B; Tarasenko, Yelena N; Curtis, Laurel A; Joyce, Jennifer M; Haist, Steven A

2007-10-01

The purpose of this study was to identify decision heuristics utilized by primary care physicians in formulating colorectal cancer screening recommendations. Qualitative research using in-depth semi-structured interviews. We interviewed 66 primary care internists and family physicians evenly drawn from academic and community practices. A majority of physicians were male, and almost all were white, non-Hispanic. Three researchers independently reviewed each transcript to determine the physician's decision criteria and developed decision trees. Final trees were developed by consensus. The constant comparative methodology was used to define the categories. Physicians were found to use 1 of 4 heuristics ("age 50," "age 50, if family history, then earlier," "age 50, if family history, then screen at age 40," or "age 50, if family history, then adjust relative to reference case") for the timing recommendation and 5 heuristics ["fecal occult blood test" (FOBT), "colonoscopy," "if not colonoscopy, then...," "FOBT and another test," and "a choice between options"] for the type decision. No connection was found between timing and screening type heuristics. We found evidence of heuristic use. Further research is needed to determine the potential impact on quality of care.

Multi-Parent Clustering Algorithms from Stochastic Grammar Data Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mjoisness, Eric; Castano, Rebecca; Gray, Alexander

1999-01-01

We introduce a statistical data model and an associated optimization-based clustering algorithm which allows data vectors to belong to zero, one or several "parent" clusters. For each data vector the algorithm makes a discrete decision among these alternatives. Thus, a recursive version of this algorithm would place data clusters in a Directed Acyclic Graph rather than a tree. We test the algorithm with synthetic data generated according to the statistical data model. We also illustrate the algorithm using real data from large-scale gene expression assays.

Metric Sex Determination of the Human Coxal Bone on a Virtual Sample using Decision Trees.

PubMed

Savall, Frédéric; Faruch-Bilfeld, Marie; Dedouit, Fabrice; Sans, Nicolas; Rousseau, Hervé; Rougé, Daniel; Telmon, Norbert

2015-11-01

Decision trees provide an alternative to multivariate discriminant analysis, which is still the most commonly used in anthropometric studies. Our study analyzed the metric characterization of a recent virtual sample of 113 coxal bones using decision trees for sex determination. From 17 osteometric type I landmarks, a dataset was built with five classic distances traditionally reported in the literature and six new distances selected using the two-step ratio method. A ten-fold cross-validation was performed, and a decision tree was established on two subsamples (training and test sets). The decision tree established on the training set included three nodes and its application to the test set correctly classified 92% of individuals. This percentage was similar to the data of the literature. The usefulness of decision trees has been demonstrated in numerous fields. They have been already used in sex determination, body mass prediction, and ancestry estimation. This study shows another use of decision trees enabling simple and accurate sex determination. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Management of precancerous cervical lesions in iran: a cost minimizing study.

PubMed

Nahvijou, Azin; Sari, Ali Akbari; Zendehdel, Kazem; Marnani, Ahmad Barati

2014-01-01

Cervical cancer is a common, preventable and manageable disease in women worldwide. This study was conducted to determine the cost of follow-up for suspicious precancerous cervical lesions within a screening program using Pap smear or HPV DNA test through the decision tree. Patient follow-up processes were determined using standard guidelines and consultation with specialists to design a decision tree model. Costs of treatment in both public and private sectors were identified according to the national tariffs in 2010 and determined based on decision tree and provided services (visits to specialists, colposcopy, and conization) with two modalities: Pap smear and HPV DNA test. The number of patients and the mean cost of treatment in each sector were calculated. The prevalence of lesions and HPV were obtained from literature to estimate the cost of treatment for each woman in the population. Follow-up costs were determined using seven processes for Pap smear and 11 processes for HPV DNA test. The total cost of using Pap smear and HPV DNA process for each woman in the population was 36.1$ and 174 $ respectively. The follow-up process for patients with suspicious cervical lesions needs to be included in the existing screening program. HPV DNA test is currently more expensive than Pap smear, it is suggested that we manage precancerous cervical lesions with this latter test.

Evapotranspiration of the urban forest at the municipal scale in Los Angeles, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litvak, E.; Pataki, D. E.

2015-12-01

The severest drought on record in southern California and predictions of continued water shortages make it essential to understand urban water use. However, urban evapotranspiration (ET), which is an important part of municipal water budgets, remains a major uncertainty. Urban ET is difficult to measure and model, particularly in cities with diverse plant composition. The city of Los Angeles contains more than 6 million trees, most of which are non-natives that originate from multiple geographic regions, which further complicates predictions of urban forest transpiration. Previously, we made extensive in situ measurements of tree transpiration and turfgrass ET in greater Los Angeles area. Here, we utilize these data to systematize transpiration of different tree species based on physiological mechanisms underlying plant water relations. The resulting empirical model estimates Los Angeles urban forest ET from easy-to-collect plant characteristics and freely available environmental parameters. Plant characteristics are tree diameter, wood type (e.g. coniferous), phenological type (e.g. evergreen) and plant composition. Environmental parameters are vapor pressure deficit of the air, incoming solar radiation and reference ET (all available at http://cimis.water.ca.gov). By combining this model with existing surveys of urban trees in Los Angeles, we estimated that citywide ET of irrigated landscapes varies from 1.2 ± 0.5 mm/d in winter to 2.8 ± 1.1 mm/d in summer. On average, trees and turfgrass contributed 27% and 73% to total tree+turfgrass ET, correspondingly. To our knowledge, this model provides the first citywide estimates of Los Angeles ET differentiated by wood types and plant composition. These results will inform decision makers about species-specific water use by urban trees and assist with determining landscape designs that are beneficial for water conservation. This model may also be incorporated into a regional hydrologic model to provide spatially resolved ET at the municipal scale.

Exploring Student Characteristics of Retention That Lead to Graduation in Higher Education Using Data Mining Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raju, Dheeraj; Schumacker, Randall

2015-01-01

The study used earliest available student data from a flagship university in the southeast United States to build data mining models like logistic regression with different variable selection methods, decision trees, and neural networks to explore important student characteristics associated with retention leading to graduation. The decision tree…

Generalization of Faustmann's Formula for Stochastic Forest Growth and Prices with Markov Decision Process Models

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2001-01-01

Faustmann's formula gives the land value, or the forest value of land with trees, under deterministic assumptions regarding future stand growth and prices, over an infinite horizon. Markov decision process (MDP) models generalize Faustmann's approach by recognizing that future stand states and prices are known only as probabilistic distributions. The...

i-Tree: Tools to assess and manage structure, function, and value of community forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, S.; Nowak, D.; Endreny, T. A.; Kroll, C.; Maco, S.

2011-12-01

Trees in urban communities can mitigate many adverse effects associated with anthropogenic activities and climate change (e.g. urban heat island, greenhouse gas, air pollution, and floods). To protect environmental and human health, managers need to make informed decisions regarding urban forest management practices. Here we present the i-Tree suite of software tools (www.itreetools.org) developed by the USDA Forest Service and their cooperators. This software suite can help urban forest managers assess and manage the structure, function, and value of urban tree populations regardless of community size or technical capacity. i-Tree is a state-of-the-art, peer-reviewed Windows GUI- or Web-based software that is freely available, supported, and continuously refined by the USDA Forest Service and their cooperators. Two major features of i-Tree are 1) to analyze current canopy structures and identify potential planting spots, and 2) to estimate the environmental benefits provided by the trees, such as carbon storage and sequestration, energy conservation, air pollution removal, and storm water reduction. To cover diverse forest topologies, various tools were developed within the i-Tree suite: i-Tree Design for points (individual trees), i-Tree Streets for lines (street trees), and i-Tree Eco, Vue, and Canopy (in the order of complexity) for areas (community trees). Once the forest structure is identified with these tools, ecosystem services provided by trees can be estimated with common models and protocols, and reports in the form of texts, charts, and figures are then created for users. Since i-Tree was developed with a client/server architecture, nationwide data in the US such as location-related parameters, weather, streamflow, and air pollution data are stored in the server and retrieved to a user's computer at run-time. Freely available remote-sensed images (e.g. NLCD and Google maps) are also employed to estimate tree canopy characteristics. As the demand for i-Tree grows internationally, environmental databases from more countries will be coupled with the software suite. Two more i-Tree applications, i-Tree Forecast and i-Tree Landscape are now under development. i-Tree Forecast simulates canopy structures for up to 100 years based on planting and mortality rates and adds capabilities for other i-Tree applications to estimate the benefits of future canopy scenarios. While most i-Tree applications employ a spatially lumped approach, i-Tree landscape employs a spatially distributed approach that allows users to map changes in canopy cover and ecosystem services through time and space. These new i-Tree tools provide an advanced platform for urban managers to assess the impact of current and future urban forests. i-Tree allows managers to promote effective urban forest management and sound arboricultural practices by providing information for advocacy and planning, baseline data for making informed decisions, and standardization for comparisons with other communities.

Predicting 30-day Hospital Readmission with Publicly Available Administrative Database. A Conditional Logistic Regression Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Zhu, K; Lou, Z; Zhou, J; Ballester, N; Kong, N; Parikh, P

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Hospital readmissions raise healthcare costs and cause significant distress to providers and patients. It is, therefore, of great interest to healthcare organizations to predict what patients are at risk to be readmitted to their hospitals. However, current logistic regression based risk prediction models have limited prediction power when applied to hospital administrative data. Meanwhile, although decision trees and random forests have been applied, they tend to be too complex to understand among the hospital practitioners. Explore the use of conditional logistic regression to increase the prediction accuracy. We analyzed an HCUP statewide inpatient discharge record dataset, which includes patient demographics, clinical and care utilization data from California. We extracted records of heart failure Medicare beneficiaries who had inpatient experience during an 11-month period. We corrected the data imbalance issue with under-sampling. In our study, we first applied standard logistic regression and decision tree to obtain influential variables and derive practically meaning decision rules. We then stratified the original data set accordingly and applied logistic regression on each data stratum. We further explored the effect of interacting variables in the logistic regression modeling. We conducted cross validation to assess the overall prediction performance of conditional logistic regression (CLR) and compared it with standard classification models. The developed CLR models outperformed several standard classification models (e.g., straightforward logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine). For example, the best CLR model improved the classification accuracy by nearly 20% over the straightforward logistic regression model. Furthermore, the developed CLR models tend to achieve better sensitivity of more than 10% over the standard classification models, which can be translated to correct labeling of additional 400 - 500 readmissions for heart failure patients in the state of California over a year. Lastly, several key predictor identified from the HCUP data include the disposition location from discharge, the number of chronic conditions, and the number of acute procedures. It would be beneficial to apply simple decision rules obtained from the decision tree in an ad-hoc manner to guide the cohort stratification. It could be potentially beneficial to explore the effect of pairwise interactions between influential predictors when building the logistic regression models for different data strata. Judicious use of the ad-hoc CLR models developed offers insights into future development of prediction models for hospital readmissions, which can lead to better intuition in identifying high-risk patients and developing effective post-discharge care strategies. Lastly, this paper is expected to raise the awareness of collecting data on additional markers and developing necessary database infrastructure for larger-scale exploratory studies on readmission risk prediction.

The Value of Decision Analytical Modeling in Surgical Research: An Example of Laparoscopic Versus Open Distal Pancreatectomy.

PubMed

Tax, Casper; Govaert, Paulien H M; Stommel, Martijn W J; Besselink, Marc G H; Gooszen, Hein G; Rovers, Maroeska M

2017-11-02

To illustrate how decision modeling may identify relevant uncertainty and can preclude or identify areas of future research in surgery. To optimize use of research resources, a tool is needed that assists in identifying relevant uncertainties and the added value of reducing these uncertainties. The clinical pathway for laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP) versus open (ODP) for nonmalignant lesions was modeled in a decision tree. Cost-effectiveness based on complications, hospital stay, costs, quality of life, and survival was analyzed. The effect of existing uncertainty on the cost-effectiveness was addressed, as well as the expected value of eliminating uncertainties. Based on 29 nonrandomized studies (3.701 patients) the model shows that LDP is more cost-effective compared with ODP. Scenarios in which LDP does not outperform ODP for cost-effectiveness seem unrealistic, e.g., a 30-day mortality rate of 1.79 times higher after LDP as compared with ODP, conversion in 62.2%, surgically repair of incisional hernias in 21% after LDP, or an average 2.3 days longer hospital stay after LDP than after ODP. Taking all uncertainty into account, LDP remained more cost-effective. Minimizing these uncertainties did not change the outcome. The results show how decision analytical modeling can help to identify relevant uncertainty and guide decisions for future research in surgery. Based on the current available evidence, a randomized clinical trial on complications, hospital stay, costs, quality of life, and survival is highly unlikely to change the conclusion that LDP is more cost-effective than ODP.

Interactions between natural-occurring landscape conditions and land use influencing the abundance of riverine smallmouth bass, micropterus dolomieu

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewer, S.K.; Rabeni, C.F.

2011-01-01

This study examined how interactions between natural landscape features and land use influenced the abundance of smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu, in Missouri, USA, streams. Stream segments were placed into one of four groups based on natural-occurring watershed characteristics (soil texture and soil permeability) predicted to relate to smallmouth bass abundance. Within each group, stream segments were assigned forest (n = 3), pasture (n = 3), or urban (n = 3) designations based on the percentages of land use within each watershed. Analyses of variance indicated smallmouth bass densities differed between land use and natural conditions. Decision tree models indicated abundance was highest in forested stream segments and lowest in urban stream segments, regardless of group designation. Land use explained the most variation in decision tree models, but in-channel features of temperature, flow, and sediment also contributed significantly. These results are unique and indicate the importance of natural-occurring watershed conditions in defining the potential of populations and how finer-scale filters interact with land use to further alter population potential. Smallmouth bass has differing vulnerabilities to land-use attributes, and the better the natural watershed conditions are for population success, the more resilient these populations will be when land conversion occurs.

Computer-aided diagnosis of focal liver lesions by use of physicians' subjective classification of echogenic patterns in baseline and contrast-enhanced ultrasonography.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Katsutoshi; Shiraishi, Junji; Moriyasu, Fuminori; Doi, Kunio

2009-04-01

To develop a computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) scheme for classifying focal liver lesions (FLLs) by use of physicians' subjective classification of echogenic patterns of FLLs on baseline and contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (US). A total of 137 hepatic lesions in 137 patients were evaluated with B-mode and NC100100 (Sonazoid)-enhanced pulse-inversion US; lesions included 74 hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) (23: well-differentiated, 36: moderately differentiated, 15: poorly differentiated HCCs), 33 liver metastases, and 30 liver hemangiomas. Three physicians evaluated single images at B-mode and arterial phases with a cine mode. Physicians were asked to classify each lesion into one of eight B-mode and one of eight enhancement patterns, but did not make a diagnosis. To classify five types of FLLs, we employed a decision tree model with four decision nodes and four artificial neural networks (ANNs). The results of the physicians' pattern classifications were used successively for four different ANNs in making decisions at each of the decision nodes in the decision tree model. The classification accuracies for the 137 FLLs were 84.8% for metastasis, 93.3% for hemangioma, and 98.6% for all HCCs. In addition, the classification accuracies for histological differentiation types of HCCs were 65.2% for well-differentiated HCC, 41.7% for moderately differentiated HCC, and 80.0% for poorly differentiated HCC. This CAD scheme has the potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of liver lesions. However, the accuracy in the histologic differential diagnosis of HCC based on baseline and contrast-enhanced US is still limited.

The Relation of Student Behavior, Peer Status, Race, and Gender to Decisions about School Discipline Using CHAID Decision Trees and Regression Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horner, Stacy B.; Fireman, Gary D.; Wang, Eugene W.

2010-01-01

Peer nominations and demographic information were collected from a diverse sample of 1493 elementary school participants to examine behavior (overt and relational aggression, impulsivity, and prosociality), context (peer status), and demographic characteristics (race and gender) as predictors of teacher and administrator decisions about…

Development of Interpretable Predictive Models for BPH and Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Bermejo, Pablo; Vivo, Alicia; Tárraga, Pedro J; Rodríguez-Montes, J A

2015-01-01

Traditional methods for deciding whether to recommend a patient for a prostate biopsy are based on cut-off levels of stand-alone markers such as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or any of its derivatives. However, in the last decade we have seen the increasing use of predictive models that combine, in a non-linear manner, several predictives that are better able to predict prostate cancer (PC), but these fail to help the clinician to distinguish between PC and benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) patients. We construct two new models that are capable of predicting both PC and BPH. An observational study was performed on 150 patients with PSA ≥3 ng/mL and age >50 years. We built a decision tree and a logistic regression model, validated with the leave-one-out methodology, in order to predict PC or BPH, or reject both. Statistical dependence with PC and BPH was found for prostate volume (P-value < 0.001), PSA (P-value < 0.001), international prostate symptom score (IPSS; P-value < 0.001), digital rectal examination (DRE; P-value < 0.001), age (P-value < 0.002), antecedents (P-value < 0.006), and meat consumption (P-value < 0.08). The two predictive models that were constructed selected a subset of these, namely, volume, PSA, DRE, and IPSS, obtaining an area under the ROC curve (AUC) between 72% and 80% for both PC and BPH prediction. PSA and volume together help to build predictive models that accurately distinguish among PC, BPH, and patients without any of these pathologies. Our decision tree and logistic regression models outperform the AUC obtained in the compared studies. Using these models as decision support, the number of unnecessary biopsies might be significantly reduced.

Using histograms to introduce randomization in the generation of ensembles of decision trees

DOEpatents

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick; Littau, David

2005-02-22

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to create a histogram, a module to evaluate a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, a module to select a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method includes the steps of reading the data; creating a histogram; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, selecting a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Building a computer program to support children, parents, and distraction during healthcare procedures.

PubMed

Hanrahan, Kirsten; McCarthy, Ann Marie; Kleiber, Charmaine; Ataman, Kaan; Street, W Nick; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Ersig, Anne L

2012-10-01

This secondary data analysis used data mining methods to develop predictive models of child risk for distress during a healthcare procedure. Data used came from a study that predicted factors associated with children's responses to an intravenous catheter insertion while parents provided distraction coaching. From the 255 items used in the primary study, 44 predictive items were identified through automatic feature selection and used to build support vector machine regression models. Models were validated using multiple cross-validation tests and by comparing variables identified as explanatory in the traditional versus support vector machine regression. Rule-based approaches were applied to the model outputs to identify overall risk for distress. A decision tree was then applied to evidence-based instructions for tailoring distraction to characteristics and preferences of the parent and child. The resulting decision support computer application, titled Children, Parents and Distraction, is being used in research. Future use will support practitioners in deciding the level and type of distraction intervention needed by a child undergoing a healthcare procedure.

Bayesian Decision Tree for the Classification of the Mode of Motion in Single-Molecule Trajectories

PubMed Central

Türkcan, Silvan; Masson, Jean-Baptiste

2013-01-01

Membrane proteins move in heterogeneous environments with spatially (sometimes temporally) varying friction and with biochemical interactions with various partners. It is important to reliably distinguish different modes of motion to improve our knowledge of the membrane architecture and to understand the nature of interactions between membrane proteins and their environments. Here, we present an analysis technique for single molecule tracking (SMT) trajectories that can determine the preferred model of motion that best matches observed trajectories. The method is based on Bayesian inference to calculate the posteriori probability of an observed trajectory according to a certain model. Information theory criteria, such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and modified AIC (AICc), are used to select the preferred model. The considered group of models includes free Brownian motion, and confined motion in 2nd or 4th order potentials. We determine the best information criteria for classifying trajectories. We tested its limits through simulations matching large sets of experimental conditions and we built a decision tree. This decision tree first uses the BIC to distinguish between free Brownian motion and confined motion. In a second step, it classifies the confining potential further using the AIC. We apply the method to experimental Clostridium Perfingens -toxin (CPT) receptor trajectories to show that these receptors are confined by a spring-like potential. An adaptation of this technique was applied on a sliding window in the temporal dimension along the trajectory. We applied this adaptation to experimental CPT trajectories that lose confinement due to disaggregation of confining domains. This new technique adds another dimension to the discussion of SMT data. The mode of motion of a receptor might hold more biologically relevant information than the diffusion coefficient or domain size and may be a better tool to classify and compare different SMT experiments. PMID:24376584

To Spray or Not to Spray: A Decision Analysis of Coffee Berry Borer in Hawaii

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Integrated pest management strategies were adopted to combat the coffee berry borer (CBB) after its arrival in Hawaii in 2010. A decision tree framework is used to model the CBB integrated pest management recommendations, for potential use by growers and to assist in developing and evaluating management strategies and policies. The model focuses on pesticide spraying (spray/no spray) as the most significant pest management decision within each period over the entire crop season. The main result from the analysis suggests the most important parameter to maximize net benefit is to ensure a low initial infestation level. A second result looks at the impact of a subsidy for the cost of pesticides and shows a typical farmer receives a positive net benefit of $947.17. Sensitivity analysis of parameters checks the robustness of the model and further confirms the importance of a low initial infestation level vis-a-vis any level of subsidy. The use of a decision tree is shown to be an effective method for understanding integrated pest management strategies and solutions. PMID:29065464

An analysis of tree mortality using high resolution remotely-sensed data for mixed-conifer forests in San Diego county

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Mary Pyott

ABSTRACT An Analysis of Tree Mortality Using High Resolution Remotely-Sensed Data for Mixed-Conifer Forests in San Diego County by Mary Pyott Freeman The montane mixed-conifer forests of San Diego County are currently experiencing extensive tree mortality, which is defined as dieback where whole stands are affected. This mortality is likely the result of the complex interaction of many variables, such as altered fire regimes, climatic conditions such as drought, as well as forest pathogens and past management strategies. Conifer tree mortality and its spatial pattern and change over time were examined in three components. In component 1, two remote sensing approaches were compared for their effectiveness in delineating dead trees, a spatial contextual approach and an OBIA (object based image analysis) approach, utilizing various dates and spatial resolutions of airborne image data. For each approach transforms and masking techniques were explored, which were found to improve classifications, and an object-based assessment approach was tested. In component 2, dead tree maps produced by the most effective techniques derived from component 1 were utilized for point pattern and vector analyses to further understand spatio-temporal changes in tree mortality for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2005 for three study areas: Palomar, Volcan and Laguna mountains. Plot-based fieldwork was conducted to further assess mortality patterns. Results indicate that conifer mortality was significantly clustered, increased substantially between 2002 and 2005, and was non-random with respect to tree species and diameter class sizes. In component 3, multiple environmental variables were used in Generalized Linear Model (GLM-logistic regression) and decision tree classifier model development, revealing the importance of climate and topographic factors such as precipitation and elevation, in being able to predict areas of high risk for tree mortality. The results from this study highlight the importance of multi-scale spatial as well as temporal analyses, in order to understand mixed-conifer forest structure, dynamics, and processes of decline, which can lead to more sustainable management of forests with continued natural and anthropogenic disturbance.

Accurate reliability analysis method for quantum-dot cellular automata circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Huanqing; Cai, Li; Wang, Sen; Liu, Xiaoqiang; Yang, Xiaokuo

2015-10-01

Probabilistic transfer matrix (PTM) is a widely used model in the reliability research of circuits. However, PTM model cannot reflect the impact of input signals on reliability, so it does not completely conform to the mechanism of the novel field-coupled nanoelectronic device which is called quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA). It is difficult to get accurate results when PTM model is used to analyze the reliability of QCA circuits. To solve this problem, we present the fault tree models of QCA fundamental devices according to different input signals. After that, the binary decision diagram (BDD) is used to quantitatively investigate the reliability of two QCA XOR gates depending on the presented models. By employing the fault tree models, the impact of input signals on reliability can be identified clearly and the crucial components of a circuit can be found out precisely based on the importance values (IVs) of components. So this method is contributive to the construction of reliable QCA circuits.

Data mining for multiagent rules, strategies, and fuzzy decision tree structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James F., III; Rhyne, Robert D., II; Fisher, Kristin

2002-03-01

A fuzzy logic based resource manager (RM) has been developed that automatically allocates electronic attack resources in real-time over many dissimilar platforms. Two different data mining algorithms have been developed to determine rules, strategies, and fuzzy decision tree structure. The first data mining algorithm uses a genetic algorithm as a data mining function and is called from an electronic game. The game allows a human expert to play against the resource manager in a simulated battlespace with each of the defending platforms being exclusively directed by the fuzzy resource manager and the attacking platforms being controlled by the human expert or operating autonomously under their own logic. This approach automates the data mining problem. The game automatically creates a database reflecting the domain expert's knowledge. It calls a data mining function, a genetic algorithm, for data mining of the database as required and allows easy evaluation of the information mined in the second step. The criterion for re- optimization is discussed as well as experimental results. Then a second data mining algorithm that uses a genetic program as a data mining function is introduced to automatically discover fuzzy decision tree structures. Finally, a fuzzy decision tree generated through this process is discussed.

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lambert, Howard E.

1975-10-09

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut setsmore » according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure.« less

Comparative seed-tree and selection harvesting costs in young-growth mixed-conifer stands

Treesearch

William A. Atkinson; Dale O. Hall

1963-01-01

Little difference was found between yarding and felling costs in seed-tree and selection harvest cuts. The volume per acre logged was 23,800 board feet on the seed-tree compartments and 10,600 board feet on the selection compartments. For a comparable operation with this range of volumes, cutting method decisions should be based on factors other than logging costs....

Identification of Water Bodies in a Landsat 8 OLI Image Using a J48 Decision Tree.

PubMed

Acharya, Tri Dev; Lee, Dong Ha; Yang, In Tae; Lee, Jae Kang

2016-07-12

Water bodies are essential to humans and other forms of life. Identification of water bodies can be useful in various ways, including estimation of water availability, demarcation of flooded regions, change detection, and so on. In past decades, Landsat satellite sensors have been used for land use classification and water body identification. Due to the introduction of a New Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor on Landsat 8 with a high spectral resolution and improved signal-to-noise ratio, the quality of imagery sensed by Landsat 8 has improved, enabling better characterization of land cover and increased data size. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the most appropriate and practical water identification methods that take advantage of the improved image quality and use the fewest inputs based on the original OLI bands. The objective of the study is to explore the potential of a J48 decision tree (JDT) in identifying water bodies using reflectance bands from Landsat 8 OLI imagery. J48 is an open-source decision tree. The test site for the study is in the Northern Han River Basin, which is located in Gangwon province, Korea. Training data with individual bands were used to develop the JDT model and later applied to the whole study area. The performance of the model was statistically analysed using the kappa statistic and area under the curve (AUC). The results were compared with five other known water identification methods using a confusion matrix and related statistics. Almost all the methods showed high accuracy, and the JDT was successfully applied to the OLI image using only four bands, where the new additional deep blue band of OLI was found to have the third highest information gain. Thus, the JDT can be a good method for water body identification based on images with improved resolution and increased size.

A decision support system using combined-classifier for high-speed data stream in smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hang; Li, Peng; He, Zhian; Guo, Xiaobin; Fong, Simon; Chen, Huajun

2016-11-01

Large volume of high-speed streaming data is generated by big power grids continuously. In order to detect and avoid power grid failure, decision support systems (DSSs) are commonly adopted in power grid enterprises. Among all the decision-making algorithms, incremental decision tree is the most widely used one. In this paper, we propose a combined classifier that is a composite of a cache-based classifier (CBC) and a main tree classifier (MTC). We integrate this classifier into a stream processing engine on top of the DSS such that high-speed steaming data can be transformed into operational intelligence efficiently. Experimental results show that our proposed classifier can return more accurate answers than other existing ones.

Potential effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion on streamflow in California's Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baguskas, S. A.; Bart, R.; Molinari, N.; Tague, C.; Moritz, M.

2014-12-01

There is widespread concern that changes in climate and fire regime may lead to vegetation change across California, which in turn may influence watershed hydrology. Although plant cover is known to affect numerous hydrological processes, sensitivities to vegetation type and spatial arrangement of species within watersheds are not well understood. The primary objective of our research was to generate mechanistically-based projections of how potential type conversion from forested to shrub dominated systems may affect streamflow. During the 2014 growing season, we measured ecophysiological responses (plant water status and leaf gas exchange rates) of two dominant tree and shrub species to changes in seasonal water availability at two sites within the southern Sierra Nevada Critical Zone Observatory. Plant physiological observations were used to parameterize a process-based eco-hydrological model, RHESSys. This model was used to evaluate the impact of changes in seasonal water availability and vegetation type-conversion on streamflow. Based on our field observations, shrubs and trees had similar access to water through the early part of the growing season (April-early June); however, by late July, available water to shrubs was twice that of trees (shrubs, -0.55 ± 0.08 MPa; trees, -1.07 ± 0.08 MPa, p<0.05). Likewise, maximum transpiration (E) and carbon assimilation (A) rates per unit leaf area were twice as high for shrubs then trees in July (shrubs, A= 21 ± 2.3 μmol m-2 s-1, E=6.6 ± 1.8 mmol m-2 s-1; trees, A=8.2 ± 1.9 μmol m-2 s-1, E=2.4 ± 0.3 mmol m-2 s-1). Preliminary modeled changes in streamflow following simulated vegetation conversion were found to affect both the timing and amount of discharge. Controls on pre vs. post-conversion streamflow included changes in interception, rooting depth, energy balance, and plant response to changes in seasonal water availability. Our research demonstrates how linking strategic field data collection and mechanistic ecohydrologic models can be used as a robust tool for assessing the potential impact of vegetation change on the water balance of an ecosystem. This is an increasingly valuable approach to inform management decisions focused on adapting strategies based on projected changes in climate.

The decision tree approach to classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, C.; Landgrebe, D. A.; Swain, P. H.

1975-01-01

A class of multistage decision tree classifiers is proposed and studied relative to the classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The decision tree classifiers are shown to have the potential for improving both the classification accuracy and the computation efficiency. Dimensionality in pattern recognition is discussed and two theorems on the lower bound of logic computation for multiclass classification are derived. The automatic or optimization approach is emphasized. Experimental results on real data are reported, which clearly demonstrate the usefulness of decision tree classifiers.

Improving medical diagnosis reliability using Boosted C5.0 decision tree empowered by Particle Swarm Optimization.

PubMed

Pashaei, Elnaz; Ozen, Mustafa; Aydin, Nizamettin

2015-08-01

Improving accuracy of supervised classification algorithms in biomedical applications is one of active area of research. In this study, we improve the performance of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) combined with C4.5 decision tree (PSO+C4.5) classifier by applying Boosted C5.0 decision tree as the fitness function. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, it is implemented on 1 microarray dataset and 5 different medical data sets obtained from UCI machine learning databases. Moreover, the results of PSO + Boosted C5.0 implementation are compared to eight well-known benchmark classification methods (PSO+C4.5, support vector machine under the kernel of Radial Basis Function, Classification And Regression Tree (CART), C4.5 decision tree, C5.0 decision tree, Boosted C5.0 decision tree, Naive Bayes and Weighted K-Nearest neighbor). Repeated five-fold cross-validation method was used to justify the performance of classifiers. Experimental results show that our proposed method not only improve the performance of PSO+C4.5 but also obtains higher classification accuracy compared to the other classification methods.

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

PubMed

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Image Mining in Remote Sensing for Coastal Wetlands Mapping: from Pixel Based to Object Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farda, N. M.; Danoedoro, P.; Hartono; Harjoko, A.

2016-11-01

The availably of remote sensing image data is numerous now, and with a large amount of data it makes “knowledge gap” in extraction of selected information, especially coastal wetlands. Coastal wetlands provide ecosystem services essential to people and the environment. The aim of this research is to extract coastal wetlands information from satellite data using pixel based and object based image mining approach. Landsat MSS, Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, and Landsat 8 OLI images located in Segara Anakan lagoon are selected to represent data at various multi temporal images. The input for image mining are visible and near infrared bands, PCA band, invers PCA bands, mean shift segmentation bands, bare soil index, vegetation index, wetness index, elevation from SRTM and ASTER GDEM, and GLCM (Harralick) or variability texture. There is three methods were applied to extract coastal wetlands using image mining: pixel based - Decision Tree C4.5, pixel based - Back Propagation Neural Network, and object based - Mean Shift segmentation and Decision Tree C4.5. The results show that remote sensing image mining can be used to map coastal wetlands ecosystem. Decision Tree C4.5 can be mapped with highest accuracy (0.75 overall kappa). The availability of remote sensing image mining for mapping coastal wetlands is very important to provide better understanding about their spatiotemporal coastal wetlands dynamics distribution.

Pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration by an urban forest.

PubMed

Brack, C L

2002-01-01

At the beginning of the 1900s, the Canberra plain was largely treeless. Graziers had carried out extensive clearing of the original trees since the 1820s leaving only scattered remnants and some plantings near homesteads. With the selection of Canberra as the site for the new capital of Australia, extensive tree plantings began in 1911. These trees have delivered a number of benefits, including aesthetic values and the amelioration of climatic extremes. Recently, however, it was considered that the benefits might extend to pollution mitigation and the sequestration of carbon. This paper outlines a case study of the value of the Canberra urban forest with particular reference to pollution mitigation. This study uses a tree inventory, modelling and decision support system developed to collect and use data about trees for tree asset management. The decision support system (DISMUT) was developed to assist in the management of about 400,000 trees planted in Canberra. The size of trees during the 5-year Kyoto Commitment Period was estimated using DISMUT and multiplied by estimates of value per square meter of canopy derived from available literature. The planted trees are estimated to have a combined energy reduction, pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration value of US$20-67 million during the period 2008-2012.

A structured approach to Exposure Based Waiving of human health endpoints under REACH developed in the OSIRIS project.

PubMed

Marquart, Hans; Meijster, Tim; Van de Bovenkamp, Marja; Ter Burg, Wouter; Spaan, Suzanne; Van Engelen, Jacqueline

2012-03-01

Exposure Based Waiving (EBW) is one of the options in REACH when there is insufficient hazard data on a specific endpoint. Rules for adaptation of test requirements are specified and a general option for EBW is given via Appendix XI of REACH, allowing waiving of repeated dose toxicity studies, reproductive toxicity studies and carcinogenicity studies under a number of conditions if exposure is very low. A decision tree is described that was developed in the European project OSIRIS (Optimised Strategies for Risk Assessment of Industrial Chemicals through Integration of Non-Test and Test Information) to help decide in what cases EBW can be justified. The decision tree uses specific criteria as well as more general questions. For the latter, guidance on interpretation and resulting conclusions is provided. Criteria and guidance are partly based on an expert elicitation process. Among the specific criteria a number of proposed Thresholds of Toxicological Concern are used. The decision tree, expanded with specific parts on absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion that are not described in this paper, is implemented in the OSIRIS webtool on integrated testing strategies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision tree and ensemble learning algorithms with their applications in bioinformatics.

PubMed

Che, Dongsheng; Liu, Qi; Rasheed, Khaled; Tao, Xiuping

2011-01-01

Machine learning approaches have wide applications in bioinformatics, and decision tree is one of the successful approaches applied in this field. In this chapter, we briefly review decision tree and related ensemble algorithms and show the successful applications of such approaches on solving biological problems. We hope that by learning the algorithms of decision trees and ensemble classifiers, biologists can get the basic ideas of how machine learning algorithms work. On the other hand, by being exposed to the applications of decision trees and ensemble algorithms in bioinformatics, computer scientists can get better ideas of which bioinformatics topics they may work on in their future research directions. We aim to provide a platform to bridge the gap between biologists and computer scientists.

MODIS Snow Cover Mapping Decision Tree Technique: Snow and Cloud Discrimination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riggs, George A.; Hall, Dorothy K.

2010-01-01

Accurate mapping of snow cover continues to challenge cryospheric scientists and modelers. The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow data products have been used since 2000 by many investigators to map and monitor snow cover extent for various applications. Users have reported on the utility of the products and also on problems encountered. Three problems or hindrances in the use of the MODIS snow data products that have been reported in the literature are: cloud obscuration, snow/cloud confusion, and snow omission errors in thin or sparse snow cover conditions. Implementation of the MODIS snow algorithm in a decision tree technique using surface reflectance input to mitigate those problems is being investigated. The objective of this work is to use a decision tree structure for the snow algorithm. This should alleviate snow/cloud confusion and omission errors and provide a snow map with classes that convey information on how snow was detected, e.g. snow under clear sky, snow tinder cloud, to enable users' flexibility in interpreting and deriving a snow map. Results of a snow cover decision tree algorithm are compared to the standard MODIS snow map and found to exhibit improved ability to alleviate snow/cloud confusion in some situations allowing up to about 5% increase in mapped snow cover extent, thus accuracy, in some scenes.

A Decision Tree for Psychology Majors: Supplying Questions as Well as Answers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poe, Retta E.

1988-01-01

Outlines the development of a psychology careers decision tree to help faculty advise students plan their program. States that students using the decision tree may benefit by learning more about their career options and by acquiring better question-asking skills. (GEA)

Electricity system expansion studies to consider uncertainties and interactions in restructured markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Shan

This dissertation concerns power system expansion planning under different market mechanisms. The thesis follows a three paper format, in which each paper emphasizes a different perspective. The first paper investigates the impact of market uncertainties on a long term centralized generation expansion planning problem. The problem is modeled as a two-stage stochastic program with uncertain fuel prices and demands, which are represented as probabilistic scenario paths in a multi-period tree. Two measurements, expected cost (EC) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), are used to minimize, respectively, the total expected cost among scenarios and the risk of incurring high costs in unfavorable scenarios. We sample paths from the scenario tree to reduce the problem scale and determine the sufficient number of scenarios by computing confidence intervals on the objective values. The second paper studies an integrated electricity supply system including generation, transmission and fuel transportation with a restructured wholesale electricity market. This integrated system expansion problem is modeled as a bi-level program in which a centralized system expansion decision is made in the upper level and the operational decisions of multiple market participants are made in the lower level. The difficulty of solving a bi-level programming problem to global optimality is discussed and three problem relaxations obtained by reformulation are explored. The third paper solves a more realistic market-based generation and transmission expansion problem. It focuses on interactions among a centralized transmission expansion decision and decentralized generation expansion decisions. It allows each generator to make its own strategic investment and operational decisions both in response to a transmission expansion decision and in anticipation of a market price settled by an Independent System Operator (ISO) market clearing problem. The model poses a complicated tri-level structure including an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) sub-problem. A hybrid iterative algorithm is proposed to solve the problem efficiently and reliably.

Modelling tree dynamics to assess the implementation of EU policies related to afforestation in SW Spain rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herguido, Estela; Pulido, Manuel; Francisco Lavado Contador, Joaquín; Schnabel, Susanne

2017-04-01

In Iberian dehesas and montados, the lack of tree recruitment compromises its long-term sustainability. However, in marginal areas of dehesas shrub encroachment facilitates tree recruitment while altering the distinctive physiognomic and cultural characteristics of the system. These are ongoing processes that should be considered when designing afforestation measures and policies. Based on spatial variables, we modeled the proneness of a piece of land to undergo tree recruitment and the results were related with the afforestation measures carried out under the UE First Afforestation Agricultural Land Program between 1992 and 2008. We analyzed the temporal tree population dynamics in 800 randomly selected plots of 100 m radius (2,510 ha in total) in dehesas and treeless pasturelands of Extremadura (hereafter rangelands). Tree changes were revealed by comparing aerial images taken in 1956 with orthophotographs and infrared ones from 2012. Spatial models that predict the areas prone either to lack tree recruitment or with recruitment were developed and based on three data mining algorithms: MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), Random Forest (RF) and Stochastic Gradient Boosting (Tree-Net, TN). Recruited-tree locations (1) vs. locations of places with no recruitment (0) (randomly selected from the study areas) were used as the binary dependent variable. A 5% of the data were used as test data set. As candidate explanatory variables we used 51 different topographic, climatic, bioclimatic, land cover-related and edaphic ones. The statistical models developed were extrapolated to the spatial context of the afforested areas in the region and also to the whole Extremenian rangelands, and the percentage of area modelled as prone to tree recruitment was calculated for each case. A total of 46,674.63 ha were afforested with holm oak (Quercus ilex) or cork oak (Quercus suber) in the studied rangelands under the UE First Afforestation Agricultural Land Program. In the sampled plots, 16,747 trees were detected as recruited, while 47,058 and 12,803 were present in both dates and lost during the studied period, respectively. Based on the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), all the data mining models considered showed a high fitness (MARS AUC= 0.86; TN AUC= 0.92; RF AUC= 0.95) and low misclassification rates. Correctly predicted test samples for absence and presence of tree recruitment accounted respectively to 78.3% and 76.8% when using MARS, 90.8% and 90.8% using TN and 88.9% and 89.1% using RF. The spatial patterns of the different models were similar. However, attending only the percentage of area prone to tree recruitment, outstanding differences were observed among models considering the total surface of rangelands (36.03% in MARS, 22.88% in TN and 6.72 % in RF). Despite these differences, when comparing the results with those of the afforested surfaces (31.73% in MARS, 20.70% in TN and 5.63 % in RF) the three algorithms pointed to similar conclusions, i.e. the afforestations performed in rangelands of Extremadura under UE First Afforestation Agricultural Land Program, barely discriminate between areas with or without natural regeneration. In conclusion, data mining technics are suitable to develop high-performance spatial models of vegetation dynamics. These models could be useful for policy and decision makers aimed at assessing the implementation of afforestation measures and the selection of more adequate locations.

Finding structure in data using multivariate tree boosting

PubMed Central

Miller, Patrick J.; Lubke, Gitta H.; McArtor, Daniel B.; Bergeman, C. S.

2016-01-01

Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles such as random forests (Strobl, Malley, & Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding structure, but are difficult to interpret with multiple outcome variables which are often of interest in psychology. To find and interpret structure in data sets with multiple outcomes and many predictors (possibly exceeding the sample size), we introduce a multivariate extension to a decision tree ensemble method called gradient boosted regression trees (Friedman, 2001). Our extension, multivariate tree boosting, is a method for nonparametric regression that is useful for identifying important predictors, detecting predictors with nonlinear effects and interactions without specification of such effects, and for identifying predictors that cause two or more outcome variables to covary. We provide the R package ‘mvtboost’ to estimate, tune, and interpret the resulting model, which extends the implementation of univariate boosting in the R package ‘gbm’ (Ridgeway et al., 2015) to continuous, multivariate outcomes. To illustrate the approach, we analyze predictors of psychological well-being (Ryff & Keyes, 1995). Simulations verify that our approach identifies predictors with nonlinear effects and achieves high prediction accuracy, exceeding or matching the performance of (penalized) multivariate multiple regression and multivariate decision trees over a wide range of conditions. PMID:27918183

Establishing priorities for psychological interventions in pediatric settings: A decision-tree approach using the DISABKIDS-10 Index as a screening instrument

PubMed Central

Silva, Neuza; Moreira, Helena; Canavarro, Maria Cristina; Carona, Carlos

2018-01-01

Most children and adolescents with chronic health conditions have impaired health-related quality of life and are at high risk of internalizing and externalizing problems. However, few patients present clinically significant symptoms. Using a decision-tree approach, this study aimed to identify risk profiles for psychological problems based on measures that can be easily scored and interpreted by healthcare professionals in pediatric settings. The participants were 736 children and adolescents between 8–18 years of age with asthma, epilepsy, cerebral palsy, type-1diabetes or obesity. The children and adolescents completed self-report measures of health-related quality of life (DISABKIDS-10) and psychological problems (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire). Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected from their parents/ physicians. Children and adolescents were classified into the normal (78.5%) or borderline/clinical range (21.5%) according to the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire cut-off values for psychological problems. The overall accuracy of the decision-tree model was 78.1% (sensitivity = 71.5%; specificity = 79.9%), with 4 profiles predicting 71.5% of borderline/clinical cases. The strongest predictor of psychological problems was a health-related quality of life standardized score below the threshold of 57.5 for patients with cerebral palsy, epilepsy or obesity and below 70.0 for patients with asthma or diabetes. Other significant predictors were low socio-economic status, single-parent household, medication intake and younger age. The model showed adequate validity (risk = .28, SE = .02) and accuracy (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = .84; CI = .80/.87). The identification of pediatric patients at high risk for psychological problems may contribute to a more efficient allocation of health resources, particularly with regard to their referral to specialized psychological assessment and intervention. PMID:29852026

Identification of Potential Sources of Mercury (Hg) in Farmland Soil Using a Decision Tree Method in China.

PubMed

Zhong, Taiyang; Chen, Dongmei; Zhang, Xiuying

2016-11-09

Identification of the sources of soil mercury (Hg) on the provincial scale is helpful for enacting effective policies to prevent further contamination and take reclamation measurements. The natural and anthropogenic sources and their contributions of Hg in Chinese farmland soil were identified based on a decision tree method. The results showed that the concentrations of Hg in parent materials were most strongly associated with the general spatial distribution pattern of Hg concentration on a provincial scale. The decision tree analysis gained an 89.70% total accuracy in simulating the influence of human activities on the additions of Hg in farmland soil. Human activities-for example, the production of coke, application of fertilizers, discharge of wastewater, discharge of solid waste, and the production of non-ferrous metals-were the main external sources of a large amount of Hg in the farmland soil.

Identification of Potential Sources of Mercury (Hg) in Farmland Soil Using a Decision Tree Method in China

PubMed Central

Zhong, Taiyang; Chen, Dongmei; Zhang, Xiuying

2016-01-01

Identification of the sources of soil mercury (Hg) on the provincial scale is helpful for enacting effective policies to prevent further contamination and take reclamation measurements. The natural and anthropogenic sources and their contributions of Hg in Chinese farmland soil were identified based on a decision tree method. The results showed that the concentrations of Hg in parent materials were most strongly associated with the general spatial distribution pattern of Hg concentration on a provincial scale. The decision tree analysis gained an 89.70% total accuracy in simulating the influence of human activities on the additions of Hg in farmland soil. Human activities—for example, the production of coke, application of fertilizers, discharge of wastewater, discharge of solid waste, and the production of non-ferrous metals—were the main external sources of a large amount of Hg in the farmland soil. PMID:27834884

Comprehensible knowledge model creation for cancer treatment decision making.

PubMed

Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Ali Khan, Wajahat; Ali, Taqdir; Lee, Sungyoung; Huh, Eui-Nam; Farooq Ahmad, Hafiz; Jamshed, Arif; Iqbal, Hassan; Irfan, Muhammad; Abbas Hydari, Manzar

2017-03-01

A wealth of clinical data exists in clinical documents in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). This data can be used for developing knowledge-based recommendation systems that can assist clinicians in clinical decision making and education. One of the big hurdles in developing such systems is the lack of automated mechanisms for knowledge acquisition to enable and educate clinicians in informed decision making. An automated knowledge acquisition methodology with a comprehensible knowledge model for cancer treatment (CKM-CT) is proposed. With the CKM-CT, clinical data are acquired automatically from documents. Quality of data is ensured by correcting errors and transforming various formats into a standard data format. Data preprocessing involves dimensionality reduction and missing value imputation. Predictive algorithm selection is performed on the basis of the ranking score of the weighted sum model. The knowledge builder prepares knowledge for knowledge-based services: clinical decisions and education support. Data is acquired from 13,788 head and neck cancer (HNC) documents for 3447 patients, including 1526 patients of the oral cavity site. In the data quality task, 160 staging values are corrected. In the preprocessing task, 20 attributes and 106 records are eliminated from the dataset. The Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm is selected and provides 69.0% classification accuracy in predicting HNC treatment plans, consisting of 11 decision paths that yield 11 decision rules. Our proposed methodology, CKM-CT, is helpful to find hidden knowledge in clinical documents. In CKM-CT, the prediction models are developed to assist and educate clinicians for informed decision making. The proposed methodology is generalizable to apply to data of other domains such as breast cancer with a similar objective to assist clinicians in decision making and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

PubMed

Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

2016-08-01

The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stacked Denoising Autoencoders Applied to Star/Galaxy Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Hao-ran; Lin, Ji-ming; Wang, Jun-yi

2017-04-01

In recent years, the deep learning algorithm, with the characteristics of strong adaptability, high accuracy, and structural complexity, has become more and more popular, but it has not yet been used in astronomy. In order to solve the problem that the star/galaxy classification accuracy is high for the bright source set, but low for the faint source set of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data, we introduced the new deep learning algorithm, namely the SDA (stacked denoising autoencoder) neural network and the dropout fine-tuning technique, which can greatly improve the robustness and antinoise performance. We randomly selected respectively the bright source sets and faint source sets from the SDSS DR12 and DR7 data with spectroscopic measurements, and made preprocessing on them. Then, we randomly selected respectively the training sets and testing sets without replacement from the bright source sets and faint source sets. At last, using these training sets we made the training to obtain the SDA models of the bright sources and faint sources in the SDSS DR7 and DR12, respectively. We compared the test result of the SDA model on the DR12 testing set with the test results of the Library for Support Vector Machines (LibSVM), J48 decision tree, Logistic Model Tree (LMT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, and Decision Stump algorithm, and compared the test result of the SDA model on the DR7 testing set with the test results of six kinds of decision trees. The experiments show that the SDA has a better classification accuracy than other machine learning algorithms for the faint source sets of DR7 and DR12. Especially, when the completeness function is used as the evaluation index, compared with the decision tree algorithms, the correctness rate of SDA has improved about 15% for the faint source set of SDSS-DR7.

Cost-effectiveness of the introduction of the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in elderly Colombian population.

PubMed

Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos; Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson; Paternina, Angel José; De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando

2011-10-13

Streptococcus pneumoniae causes community-acquired pneumonia, otitis media and meningitis, with higher incidences at the extremes of life. PPV-23 vaccine is widely used in prevention of pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease in older adults in developed countries. We developed an evaluation of cost-effectiveness of implementing PPV-23 in Colombian population over 60 years. The number of cases of pneumonia and meningitis in patients over 60 years and the proportion by S. pneumoniae was estimated based on a review of literature. A decision tree model with a 5-year time horizon was built to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the implementation of the PPV-23 in this population. Direct health care costs of out- and in-patients were calculated based on expenditure records from the Bogota public health system. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per life saved and per year of life gained were estimated based on the decision tree model. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Without vaccination 4460 (range 2384-8162) bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonias and 141 (range 73-183) pneumococcal meningitis would occur among people over 60 years old in Colombia. In the first year, vaccination with PPV-23 at US$8/dose would save 480 (range 100-1753) deaths due to Invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease. Vaccination would results in US$3400/deaths averted (range US$1028-10,862) and US$1514/life years gained (range US$408-5404). Vaccination with PPV-23 in over 60 years is a highly cost-effective public health measure in Colombia. Despite some limitations, the results are robust, and may help developing countries to perform informed decisions about the introduction of the vaccine. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine learning models in breast cancer survival prediction.

PubMed

Montazeri, Mitra; Montazeri, Mohadeseh; Montazeri, Mahdieh; Beigzadeh, Amin

2016-01-01

Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers with a high mortality rate among women. With the early diagnosis of breast cancer survival will increase from 56% to more than 86%. Therefore, an accurate and reliable system is necessary for the early diagnosis of this cancer. The proposed model is the combination of rules and different machine learning techniques. Machine learning models can help physicians to reduce the number of false decisions. They try to exploit patterns and relationships among a large number of cases and predict the outcome of a disease using historical cases stored in datasets. The objective of this study is to propose a rule-based classification method with machine learning techniques for the prediction of different types of Breast cancer survival. We use a dataset with eight attributes that include the records of 900 patients in which 876 patients (97.3%) and 24 (2.7%) patients were females and males respectively. Naive Bayes (NB), Trees Random Forest (TRF), 1-Nearest Neighbor (1NN), AdaBoost (AD), Support Vector Machine (SVM), RBF Network (RBFN), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) machine learning techniques with 10-cross fold technique were used with the proposed model for the prediction of breast cancer survival. The performance of machine learning techniques were evaluated with accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under ROC curve. Out of 900 patients, 803 patients and 97 patients were alive and dead, respectively. In this study, Trees Random Forest (TRF) technique showed better results in comparison to other techniques (NB, 1NN, AD, SVM and RBFN, MLP). The accuracy, sensitivity and the area under ROC curve of TRF are 96%, 96%, 93%, respectively. However, 1NN machine learning technique provided poor performance (accuracy 91%, sensitivity 91% and area under ROC curve 78%). This study demonstrates that Trees Random Forest model (TRF) which is a rule-based classification model was the best model with the highest level of accuracy. Therefore, this model is recommended as a useful tool for breast cancer survival prediction as well as medical decision making.

Creating ensembles of oblique decision trees with evolutionary algorithms and sampling

DOEpatents

Cantu-Paz, Erick [Oakland, CA; Kamath, Chandrika [Tracy, CA

2006-06-13

A decision tree system that is part of a parallel object-oriented pattern recognition system, which in turn is part of an object oriented data mining system. A decision tree process includes the step of reading the data. If necessary, the data is sorted. A potential split of the data is evaluated according to some criterion. An initial split of the data is determined. The final split of the data is determined using evolutionary algorithms and statistical sampling techniques. The data is split. Multiple decision trees are combined in ensembles.

The decision tree classifier - Design and potential. [for Landsat-1 data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauska, H.; Swain, P. H.

1975-01-01

A new classifier has been developed for the computerized analysis of remote sensor data. The decision tree classifier is essentially a maximum likelihood classifier using multistage decision logic. It is characterized by the fact that an unknown sample can be classified into a class using one or several decision functions in a successive manner. The classifier is applied to the analysis of data sensed by Landsat-1 over Kenosha Pass, Colorado. The classifier is illustrated by a tree diagram which for processing purposes is encoded as a string of symbols such that there is a unique one-to-one relationship between string and decision tree.

The use of economic evaluation in CAM: an introductory framework

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background For CAM to feature prominently in health care decision-making there is a need to expand the evidence-base and to further incorporate economic evaluation into research priorities. In a world of scarce health care resources and an emphasis on efficiency and clinical efficacy, CAM, as indeed do all other treatments, requires rigorous evaluation to be considered in budget decision-making. Methods Economic evaluation provides the tools to measure the costs and health consequences of CAM interventions and thereby inform decision making. This article offers CAM researchers an introductory framework for understanding, undertaking and disseminating economic evaluation. The types of economic evaluation available for the study of CAM are discussed, and decision modelling is introduced as a method for economic evaluation with much potential for use in CAM. Two types of decision models are introduced, decision trees and Markov models, along with a worked example of how each method is used to examine costs and health consequences. This is followed by a discussion of how this information is used by decision makers. Conclusions Undoubtedly, economic evaluation methods form an important part of health care decision making. Without formal training it can seem a daunting task to consider economic evaluation, however, multidisciplinary teams provide an opportunity for health economists, CAM practitioners and other interested researchers, to work together to further develop the economic evaluation of CAM. PMID:21067622

The use of economic evaluation in CAM: an introductory framework.

PubMed

Ford, Emily; Solomon, Daniela; Adams, Jon; Graves, Nicholas

2010-11-11

For CAM to feature prominently in health care decision-making there is a need to expand the evidence-base and to further incorporate economic evaluation into research priorities.In a world of scarce health care resources and an emphasis on efficiency and clinical efficacy, CAM, as indeed do all other treatments, requires rigorous evaluation to be considered in budget decision-making. Economic evaluation provides the tools to measure the costs and health consequences of CAM interventions and thereby inform decision making. This article offers CAM researchers an introductory framework for understanding, undertaking and disseminating economic evaluation. The types of economic evaluation available for the study of CAM are discussed, and decision modelling is introduced as a method for economic evaluation with much potential for use in CAM. Two types of decision models are introduced, decision trees and Markov models, along with a worked example of how each method is used to examine costs and health consequences. This is followed by a discussion of how this information is used by decision makers. Undoubtedly, economic evaluation methods form an important part of health care decision making. Without formal training it can seem a daunting task to consider economic evaluation, however, multidisciplinary teams provide an opportunity for health economists, CAM practitioners and other interested researchers, to work together to further develop the economic evaluation of CAM.

Decision tree-based method for integrating gene expression, demographic, and clinical data to determine disease endotypes

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Complex diseases are often difficult to diagnose, treat and study due to the multi-factorial nature of the underlying etiology. Large data sets are now widely available that can be used to define novel, mechanistically distinct disease subtypes (endotypes) in a completely data-driven manner. However, significant challenges exist with regard to how to segregate individuals into suitable subtypes of the disease and understand the distinct biological mechanisms of each when the goal is to maximize the discovery potential of these data sets. Results A multi-step decision tree-based method is described for defining endotypes based on gene expression, clinical covariates, and disease indicators using childhood asthma as a case study. We attempted to use alternative approaches such as the Student’s t-test, single data domain clustering and the Modk-prototypes algorithm, which incorporates multiple data domains into a single analysis and none performed as well as the novel multi-step decision tree method. This new method gave the best segregation of asthmatics and non-asthmatics, and it provides easy access to all genes and clinical covariates that distinguish the groups. Conclusions The multi-step decision tree method described here will lead to better understanding of complex disease in general by allowing purely data-driven disease endotypes to facilitate the discovery of new mechanisms underlying these diseases. This application should be considered a complement to ongoing efforts to better define and diagnose known endotypes. When coupled with existing methods developed to determine the genetics of gene expression, these methods provide a mechanism for linking genetics and exposomics data and thereby accounting for both major determinants of disease. PMID:24188919

Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

2013-01-01

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

1988-01-01

A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

Effect of altering local protein fluctuations using artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, Katsuhiko

2017-03-01

The fluctuations in Arg111, a significantly fluctuating residue in cathepsin K, were locally regulated by modifying Arg111 to Gly111. The binding properties of 15 dipeptides in the modified protein were analyzed by molecular simulations, and modeled as decision trees using artificial intelligence. The decision tree of the modified protein significantly differed from that of unmodified cathepsin K, and the Arg-to-Gly modification exerted a remarkable effect on the peptide binding properties. By locally regulating the fluctuations of a protein, we may greatly alter the original functions of the protein, enabling novel applications in several fields.

Return to Work After Lumbar Microdiscectomy - Personalizing Approach Through Predictive Modeling.

PubMed

Papić, Monika; Brdar, Sanja; Papić, Vladimir; Lončar-Turukalo, Tatjana

2016-01-01

Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is the most common disease among working population requiring surgical intervention. This study aims to predict the return to work after operative treatment of LDH based on the observational study including 153 patients. The classification problem was approached using decision trees (DT), support vector machines (SVM) and multilayer perception (MLP) combined with RELIEF algorithm for feature selection. MLP provided best recall of 0.86 for the class of patients not returning to work, which combined with the selected features enables early identification and personalized targeted interventions towards subjects at risk of prolonged disability. The predictive modeling indicated at the most decisive risk factors in prolongation of work absence: psychosocial factors, mobility of the spine and structural changes of facet joints and professional factors including standing, sitting and microclimate.

Policy Tree Optimization for Adaptive Management of Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J. D.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Water resources systems must cope with irreducible uncertainty in supply and demand, requiring policy alternatives capable of adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. Recent studies have developed adaptive policies based on "signposts" or "tipping points", which are threshold values of indicator variables that signal a change in policy. However, there remains a need for a general method to optimize the choice of indicators and their threshold values in a way that is easily interpretable for decision makers. Here we propose a conceptual framework and computational algorithm to design adaptive policies as a tree structure (i.e., a hierarchical set of logical rules) using a simulation-optimization approach based on genetic programming. We demonstrate the approach using Folsom Reservoir, California as a case study, in which operating policies must balance the risk of both floods and droughts. Given a set of feature variables, such as reservoir level, inflow observations and forecasts, and time of year, the resulting policy defines the conditions under which flood control and water supply hedging operations should be triggered. Importantly, the tree-based rule sets are easy to interpret for decision making, and can be compared to historical operating policies to understand the adaptations needed under possible climate change scenarios. Several remaining challenges are discussed, including the empirical convergence properties of the method, and extensions to irreversible decisions such as infrastructure. Policy tree optimization, and corresponding open-source software, provide a generalizable, interpretable approach to designing adaptive policies under uncertainty for water resources systems.

Predictors of suicidal ideation in older people: a decision tree analysis.

PubMed

Handley, Tonelle E; Hiles, Sarah A; Inder, Kerry J; Kay-Lambkin, Frances J; Kelly, Brian J; Lewin, Terry J; McEvoy, Mark; Peel, Roseanne; Attia, John R

2014-11-01

Suicide among older adults is a major public health issue worldwide. Although studies have identified psychological, physical, and social contributors to suicidal thoughts in older adults, few have explored the specific interactions between these factors. This article used a novel statistical approach to explore predictors of suicidal ideation in a community-based sample of older adults. Prospective cohort study. Participants aged 55-85 years were randomly selected from the Hunter Region, a large regional center in New South Wales, Australia. Baseline psychological, physical, and social factors, including psychological distress, physical functioning, and social support, were used to predict suicidal ideation at the 5-year follow-up. Classification and regression tree modeling was used to determine specific risk profiles for participants depending on their individual well-being in each of these key areas. Psychological distress was the strongest predictor, with 25% of people with high distress reporting suicidal ideation. Within high psychological distress, lower physical functioning significantly increased the likelihood of suicidal ideation, with high distress and low functioning being associated with ideation in 50% of cases. A substantial subgroup reported suicidal ideation in the absence of psychological distress; dissatisfaction with social support was the most important predictor among this group. The performance of the model was high (area under the curve: 0.81). Decision tree modeling enabled individualized "risk" profiles for suicidal ideation to be determined. Although psychological factors are important for predicting suicidal ideation, both physical and social factors significantly improved the predictive ability of the model. Assessing these factors may enhance identification of older people at risk of suicidal ideation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An integrative model for in-silico clinical-genomics discovery science.

PubMed

Lussier, Yves A; Sarkar, Indra Nell; Cantor, Michael

2002-01-01

Human Genome discovery research has set the pace for Post-Genomic Discovery Research. While post-genomic fields focused at the molecular level are intensively pursued, little effort is being deployed in the later stages of molecular medicine discovery research, such as clinical-genomics. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the relevance and significance of integrating mainstream clinical informatics decision support systems to current bioinformatics genomic discovery science. This paper is a feasibility study of an original model enabling novel "in-silico" clinical-genomic discovery science and that demonstrates its feasibility. This model is designed to mediate queries among clinical and genomic knowledge bases with relevant bioinformatic analytic tools (e.g. gene clustering). Briefly, trait-disease-gene relationships were successfully illustrated using QMR, OMIM, SNOMED-RT, GeneCluster and TreeView. The analyses were visualized as two-dimensional dendrograms of clinical observations clustered around genes. To our knowledge, this is the first study using knowledge bases of clinical decision support systems for genomic discovery. Although this study is a proof of principle, it provides a framework for the development of clinical decision-support-system driven, high-throughput clinical-genomic technologies which could potentially unveil significant high-level functions of genes.

Optimal land use/land cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modeling in a Himalayan watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saran, Sameer; Sterk, Geert; Kumar, Suresh

2009-10-01

Land use/land cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division into HRU's requires good-quality spatial data on land use/land cover. This paper presents different approaches to attain an optimal land use/land cover map based on remote sensing imagery for a Himalayan watershed in northern India. First digital classifications using maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and a decision tree classifier were applied. The results obtained from the decision tree were better and even improved after post classification sorting. But the obtained land use/land cover map was not sufficient for the delineation of HRUs, since the agricultural land use/land cover class did not discriminate between the two major crops in the area i.e. paddy and maize. Subsequently the digital classification on fused data (ASAR and ASTER) were attempted to map land use/land cover classes with emphasis to delineate the paddy and maize crops but the supervised classification over fused datasets did not provide the desired accuracy and proper delineation of paddy and maize crops. Eventually, we adopted a visual classification approach on fused data. This second step with detailed classification system resulted into better classification accuracy within the 'agricultural land' class which will be further combined with topography and soil type to derive HRU's for physically-based hydrological modeling.

Computerized Adaptive Test vs. decision trees: Development of a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior.

PubMed

Delgado-Gomez, D; Baca-Garcia, E; Aguado, D; Courtet, P; Lopez-Castroman, J

2016-12-01

Several Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) have been proposed to facilitate assessments in mental health. These tests are built in a standard way, disregarding useful and usually available information not included in the assessment scales that could increase the precision and utility of CATs, such as the history of suicide attempts. Using the items of a previously developed scale for suicidal risk, we compared the performance of a standard CAT and a decision tree in a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior. We included the history of past suicide attempts as a class for the separation of patients in the decision tree. The decision tree needed an average of four items to achieve a similar accuracy than a standard CAT with nine items. The accuracy of the decision tree, obtained after 25 cross-validations, was 81.4%. A shortened test adapted for the separation of suicidal and non-suicidal patients was developed. CATs can be very useful tools for the assessment of suicidal risk. However, standard CATs do not use all the information that is available. A decision tree can improve the precision of the assessment since they are constructed using a priori information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research on complex 3D tree modeling based on L-system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gang, Chen; Bin, Chen; Yuming, Liu; Hui, Li

2018-03-01

L-system as a fractal iterative system could simulate complex geometric patterns. Based on the field observation data of trees and knowledge of forestry experts, this paper extracted modeling constraint rules and obtained an L-system rules set. Using the self-developed L-system modeling software the L-system rule set was parsed to generate complex tree 3d models.The results showed that the geometrical modeling method based on l-system could be used to describe the morphological structure of complex trees and generate 3D tree models.

Comparison between Decision Tree and Genetic Programming to distinguish healthy from stroke postural sway patterns.

PubMed

Marrega, Luiz H G; Silva, Simone M; Manffra, Elisangela F; Nievola, Julio C

2015-01-01

Maintaining balance is a motor task of crucial importance for humans to perform their daily activities safely and independently. Studies in the field of Artificial Intelligence have considered different classification methods in order to distinguish healthy subjects from patients with certain motor disorders based on their postural strategies during the balance control. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the performance between Decision Tree (DT) and Genetic Programming (GP) - both classification methods of easy interpretation by health professionals - to distinguish postural sway patterns produced by healthy and stroke individuals based on 16 widely used posturographic variables. For this purpose, we used a posturographic dataset of time-series of center-of-pressure displacements derived from 19 stroke patients and 19 healthy matched subjects in three quiet standing tasks of balance control. Then, DT and GP models were trained and tested under two different experiments where accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were adopted as performance metrics. The DT method has performed statistically significant (P < 0.05) better in both cases, showing for example an accuracy of 72.8% against 69.2% from GP in the second experiment of this paper.

A Clinical Decision Tree to Predict Whether a Bacteremic Patient Is Infected With an Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase-Producing Organism.

PubMed

Goodman, Katherine E; Lessler, Justin; Cosgrove, Sara E; Harris, Anthony D; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Han, Jennifer H; Milstone, Aaron M; Massey, Colin J; Tamma, Pranita D

2016-10-01

Timely identification of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) bacteremia can improve clinical outcomes while minimizing unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, including carbapenems. However, most clinical microbiology laboratories currently require at least 24 additional hours from the time of microbial genus and species identification to confirm ESBL production. Our objective was to develop a user-friendly decision tree to predict which organisms are ESBL producing, to guide appropriate antibiotic therapy. We included patients ≥18 years of age with bacteremia due to Escherichia coli or Klebsiella species from October 2008 to March 2015 at Johns Hopkins Hospital. Isolates with ceftriaxone minimum inhibitory concentrations ≥2 µg/mL underwent ESBL confirmatory testing. Recursive partitioning was used to generate a decision tree to determine the likelihood that a bacteremic patient was infected with an ESBL producer. Discrimination of the original and cross-validated models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and by calculation of C-statistics. A total of 1288 patients with bacteremia met eligibility criteria. For 194 patients (15%), bacteremia was due to a confirmed ESBL producer. The final classification tree for predicting ESBL-positive bacteremia included 5 predictors: history of ESBL colonization/infection, chronic indwelling vascular hardware, age ≥43 years, recent hospitalization in an ESBL high-burden region, and ≥6 days of antibiotic exposure in the prior 6 months. The decision tree's positive and negative predictive values were 90.8% and 91.9%, respectively. Our findings suggest that a clinical decision tree can be used to estimate a bacteremic patient's likelihood of infection with ESBL-producing bacteria. Recursive partitioning offers a practical, user-friendly approach for addressing important diagnostic questions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

The application of remote sensing image sea ice monitoring method in Bohai Bay based on C4.5 decision tree algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Wei; Song, Wei

2018-02-01

In The Paper, the remote sensing monitoring of sea ice problem was turned into a classification problem in data mining. Based on the statistic of the related band data of HJ1B remote sensing images, the main bands of HJ1B images related with the reflectance of seawater and sea ice were found. On the basis, the decision tree rules for sea ice monitoring were constructed by the related bands found above, and then the rules were applied to Liaodong Bay area seriously covered by sea ice for sea ice monitoring. The result proved that the method is effective.

Semi-Automated Approach for Mapping Urban Trees from Integrated Aerial LiDAR Point Cloud and Digital Imagery Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogon-Yaro, M. A.; Kumar, P.; Rahman, A. Abdul; Buyuksalih, G.

2016-09-01

Mapping of trees plays an important role in modern urban spatial data management, as many benefits and applications inherit from this detailed up-to-date data sources. Timely and accurate acquisition of information on the condition of urban trees serves as a tool for decision makers to better appreciate urban ecosystems and their numerous values which are critical to building up strategies for sustainable development. The conventional techniques used for extracting trees include ground surveying and interpretation of the aerial photography. However, these techniques are associated with some constraints, such as labour intensive field work and a lot of financial requirement which can be overcome by means of integrated LiDAR and digital image datasets. Compared to predominant studies on trees extraction mainly in purely forested areas, this study concentrates on urban areas, which have a high structural complexity with a multitude of different objects. This paper presented a workflow about semi-automated approach for extracting urban trees from integrated processing of airborne based LiDAR point cloud and multispectral digital image datasets over Istanbul city of Turkey. The paper reveals that the integrated datasets is a suitable technology and viable source of information for urban trees management. As a conclusion, therefore, the extracted information provides a snapshot about location, composition and extent of trees in the study area useful to city planners and other decision makers in order to understand how much canopy cover exists, identify new planting, removal, or reforestation opportunities and what locations have the greatest need or potential to maximize benefits of return on investment. It can also help track trends or changes to the urban trees over time and inform future management decisions.

Data-driven modeling of hydroclimatic trends and soil moisture: Multi-scale data integration and decision support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coopersmith, Evan Joseph

The techniques and information employed for decision-making vary with the spatial and temporal scope of the assessment required. In modern agriculture, the farm owner or manager makes decisions on a day-to-day or even hour-to-hour basis for dozens of fields scattered over as much as a fifty-mile radius from some central location. Following precipitation events, land begins to dry. Land-owners and managers often trace serpentine paths of 150+ miles every morning to inspect the conditions of their various parcels. His or her objective lies in appropriate resource usage -- is a given tract of land dry enough to be workable at this moment or would he or she be better served waiting patiently? Longer-term, these owners and managers decide upon which seeds will grow most effectively and which crops will make their operations profitable. At even longer temporal scales, decisions are made regarding which fields must be acquired and sold and what types of equipment will be necessary in future operations. This work develops and validates algorithms for these shorter-term decisions, along with models of national climate patterns and climate changes to enable longer-term operational planning. A test site at the University of Illinois South Farms (Urbana, IL, USA) served as the primary location to validate machine learning algorithms, employing public sources of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to model the wetting/drying process. In expanding such local decision support tools to locations on a national scale, one must recognize the heterogeneity of hydroclimatic and soil characteristics throughout the United States. Machine learning algorithms modeling the wetting/drying process must address this variability, and yet it is wholly impractical to construct a separate algorithm for every conceivable location. For this reason, a national hydrological classification system is presented, allowing clusters of hydroclimatic similarity to emerge naturally from annual regime curve data and facilitate the development of cluster-specific algorithms. Given the desire to enable intelligent decision-making at any location, this classification system is developed in a manner that will allow for classification anywhere in the U.S., even in an ungauged basin. Daily time series data from 428 catchments in the MOPEX database are analyzed to produce an empirical classification tree, partitioning the United States into regions of hydroclimatic similarity. In constructing a classification tree based upon 55 years of data, it is important to recognize the non-stationary nature of climate data. The shifts in climatic regimes will cause certain locations to shift their ultimate position within the classification tree, requiring decision-makers to alter land usage, farming practices, and equipment needs, and algorithms to adjust accordingly. This work adapts the classification model to address the issue of regime shifts over larger temporal scales and suggests how land-usage and farming protocol may vary from hydroclimatic shifts in decades to come. Finally, the generalizability of the hydroclimatic classification system is tested with a physically-based soil moisture model calibrated at several locations throughout the continental United States. The soil moisture model is calibrated at a given site and then applied with the same parameters at other sites within and outside the same hydroclimatic class. The model's performance deteriorates minimally if the calibration and validation location are within the same hydroclimatic class, but deteriorates significantly if the calibration and validates sites are located in different hydroclimatic classes. These soil moisture estimates at the field scale are then further refined by the introduction of LiDAR elevation data, distinguishing faster-drying peaks and ridges from slower-drying valleys. The inclusion of LiDAR enabled multiple locations within the same field to be predicted accurately despite non-identical topography. This cross-application of parametric calibrations and LiDAR-driven disaggregation facilitates decision-support at locations without proximally-located soil moisture sensors.

Constructing a Graphic Organizer in the Classroom: Introductory Students' Perception of Achievement Using a Decision Map to Solve Aqueous Acid-Base Equilibria Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeMeo, Stephen

2007-01-01

Common examples of graphic organizers include flow diagrams, concept maps, and decision trees. The author has created a novel type of graphic organizer called a decision map. A decision map is a directional heuristic that helps learners solve problems within a generic framework. It incorporates questions that the user must answer and contains…

Modeling Search Behaviors during the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task.

PubMed

Moënne-Loccoz, Cristóbal; Vergara, Rodrigo C; López, Vladimir; Mery, Domingo; Cosmelli, Diego

2017-01-01

Our daily interaction with the world is plagued of situations in which we develop expertise through self-motivated repetition of the same task. In many of these interactions, and especially when dealing with computer and machine interfaces, we must deal with sequences of decisions and actions. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion and a specific sequence of choices must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as we become experts in the use of such interfaces, is it possible to identify specific search and learning strategies? And if so, can we use this information to predict future actions? In addition to better understanding the cognitive processes underlying sequential decision making, this could allow building adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Here we tackle the question of modeling sequential decision-making behavior in a simple human-computer interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) task. We record behavioral data from voluntary participants while they attempt to solve the task. Using a Hidden Markov Model-based approach that capitalizes on the hierarchical structure of behavior, we then model their performance during the interaction. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into a small set of hierarchically related stereotyped strategies can potentially capture a host of individual decision making policies. This allows us to follow how participants learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Moreover, using a Mixture of Experts based on these stereotyped strategies, the model is able to predict the behavior of participants that master the task.

A cost analysis of first-line chemotherapy for low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia.

PubMed

Shah, Neel T; Barroilhet, Lisa; Berkowitz, Ross S; Goldstein, Donald P; Horowitz, Neil

2012-01-01

To determine the optimal approach to first-line treatment for low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) using a cost analysis of 3 commonly used regimens. A decision tree of the 3 most commonly used first-line low-risk GTN treatment strategies was created, accounting for toxicities, response rates and need for second- or third-line therapy. These strategies included 8-day methotrexate (MTX)/folinic acid, weekly MTX, and pulsed actinomycin-D (act-D). Response rates, average number of cycles needed for remission, and toxicities were determined by review of the literature. Costs of each strategy were examined from a societal perspective, including the direct total treatment costs as well as the indirect lost labor production costs from work absences. Sensitivity analysis on these costs was performed using both deterministic and probabilistic cost-minimization models with the aid of decision tree software (TreeAge Pro 2011, TreeAge Inc., Williamstown, Massachusetts). We found that 8-day MTX/folinic acid is the least expensive to society, followed by pulsed act-D ($4,867 vs. $6,111 average societal cost per cure, respectively), with act-D becoming more favorable only with act-D per-cycle cost <$231, or response rate to first-line therapy > 99%. Weekly MTX is the most expensive first-line treatment strategy to society ($9,089 average cost per cure), despite being least expensive to administer per cycle, based on lower first-line response rate. Absolute societal cost of each strategy is driven by the probability of needing expensive third-line multiagent chemotherapy, however relative cost differences are robust to sensitivity analysis over the reported range of cycle number and response rate for all therapies. Based on similar efficacy and lower societal cost, we recommend 8-day MTX/folinic acid for first-line treatment of low-risk GTN.

Implementation of Data Mining to Analyze Drug Cases Using C4.5 Decision Tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahyuni, Sri

2018-03-01

Data mining was the process of finding useful information from a large set of databases. One of the existing techniques in data mining was classification. The method used was decision tree method and algorithm used was C4.5 algorithm. The decision tree method was a method that transformed a very large fact into a decision tree which was presenting the rules. Decision tree method was useful for exploring data, as well as finding a hidden relationship between a number of potential input variables with a target variable. The decision tree of the C4.5 algorithm was constructed with several stages including the selection of attributes as roots, created a branch for each value and divided the case into the branch. These stages would be repeated for each branch until all the cases on the branch had the same class. From the solution of the decision tree there would be some rules of a case. In this case the researcher classified the data of prisoners at Labuhan Deli prison to know the factors of detainees committing criminal acts of drugs. By applying this C4.5 algorithm, then the knowledge was obtained as information to minimize the criminal acts of drugs. From the findings of the research, it was found that the most influential factor of the detainee committed the criminal act of drugs was from the address variable.

Index Blood Tests and National Early Warning Scores within 24 Hours of Emergency Admission Can Predict the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality: A Model Development and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Mohammed A.; Rudge, Gavin; Watson, Duncan; Wood, Gordon; Smith, Gary B.; Prytherch, David R.; Girling, Alan; Stevens, Andrew

2013-01-01

Background We explored the use of routine blood tests and national early warning scores (NEWS) reported within ±24 hours of admission to predict in-hospital mortality in emergency admissions, using empirical decision Tree models because they are intuitive and may ultimately be used to support clinical decision making. Methodology A retrospective analysis of adult emergency admissions to a large acute hospital during April 2009 to March 2010 in the West Midlands, England, with a full set of index blood tests results (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, white cell count and an index NEWS undertaken within ±24 hours of admission). We developed a Tree model by randomly splitting the admissions into a training (50%) and validation dataset (50%) and assessed its accuracy using the concordance (c-) statistic. Emergency admissions (about 30%) did not have a full set of index blood tests and/or NEWS and so were not included in our analysis. Results There were 23248 emergency admissions with a full set of blood tests and NEWS with an in-hospital mortality of 5.69%. The Tree model identified age, NEWS, albumin, sodium, white cell count and urea as significant (p<0.001) predictors of death, which described 17 homogeneous subgroups of admissions with mortality ranging from 0.2% to 60%. The c-statistic for the training model was 0.864 (95%CI 0.852 to 0.87) and when applied to the testing data set this was 0.853 (95%CI 0.840 to 0.866). Conclusions An easy to interpret validated risk adjustment Tree model using blood test and NEWS taken within ±24 hours of admission provides good discrimination and offers a novel approach to risk adjustment which may potentially support clinical decision making. Given the nature of the clinical data, the results are likely to be generalisable but further research is required to investigate this promising approach. PMID:23734195

Decision tree analysis as a supplementary tool to enhance histomorphological differentiation when distinguishing human from non-human cranial bone in both burnt and unburnt states: A feasibility study.

PubMed

Simmons, T; Goodburn, B; Singhrao, S K

2016-01-01

This feasibility study was undertaken to describe and record the histological characteristics of burnt and unburnt cranial bone fragments from human and non-human bones. Reference series of fully mineralized, transverse sections of cranial bone, from all variables and specimen states, were prepared by manual cutting and semi-automated grinding and polishing methods. A photomicrograph catalogue reflecting differences in burnt and unburnt bone from human and non-humans was recorded and qualitative analysis was performed using an established classification system based on primary bone characteristics. The histomorphology associated with human and non-human samples was, for the main part, preserved following burning at high temperature. Clearly, fibro-lamellar complex tissue subtypes, such as plexiform or laminar primary bone, were only present in non-human bones. A decision tree analysis based on histological features provided a definitive identification key for distinguishing human from non-human bone, with an accuracy of 100%. The decision tree for samples where burning was unknown was 96% accurate, and multi-step classification to taxon was possible with 100% accuracy. The results of this feasibility study strongly suggest that histology remains a viable alternative technique if fragments of cranial bone require forensic examination in both burnt and unburnt states. The decision tree analysis may provide an additional but vital tool to enhance data interpretation. Further studies are needed to assess variation in histomorphology taking into account other cranial bones, ontogeny, species and burning conditions. © The Author(s) 2015.

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

Class Evolution Tree: A Graphical Tool to Support Decisions on the Number of Classes in Exploratory Categorical Latent Variable Modeling for Rehabilitation Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kriston, Levente; Melchior, Hanne; Hergert, Anika; Bergelt, Corinna; Watzke, Birgit; Schulz, Holger; von Wolff, Alessa

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to develop a graphical tool that can be used in addition to standard statistical criteria to support decisions on the number of classes in explorative categorical latent variable modeling for rehabilitation research. Data from two rehabilitation research projects were used. In the first study, a latent profile analysis was…

Model-based conifer crown surface reconstruction from multi-ocular high-resolution aerial imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Yongwei

2000-12-01

Tree crown parameters such as width, height, shape and crown closure are desirable in forestry and ecological studies, but they are time-consuming and labor intensive to measure in the field. The stereoscopic capability of high-resolution aerial imagery provides a way to crown surface reconstruction. Existing photogrammetric algorithms designed to map terrain surfaces, however, cannot adequately extract crown surfaces, especially for steep conifer crowns. Considering crown surface reconstruction in a broader context of tree characterization from aerial images, we develop a rigorous perspective tree image formation model to bridge image-based tree extraction and crown surface reconstruction, and an integrated model-based approach to conifer crown surface reconstruction. Based on the fact that most conifer crowns are in a solid geometric form, conifer crowns are modeled as a generalized hemi-ellipsoid. Both the automatic and semi-automatic approaches are investigated to optimal tree model development from multi-ocular images. The semi-automatic 3D tree interpreter developed in this thesis is able to efficiently extract reliable tree parameters and tree models in complicated tree stands. This thesis starts with a sophisticated stereo matching algorithm, and incorporates tree models to guide stereo matching. The following critical problems are addressed in the model-based surface reconstruction process: (1) the problem of surface model composition from tree models, (2) the occlusion problem in disparity prediction from tree models, (3) the problem of integrating the predicted disparities into image matching, (4) the tree model edge effect reduction on the disparity map, (5) the occlusion problem in orthophoto production, and (6) the foreshortening problem in image matching, which is very serious for conifer crown surfaces. Solutions to the above problems are necessary for successful crown surface reconstruction. The model-based approach was applied to recover the canopy surface of a dense redwood stand using tri-ocular high-resolution images scanned from 1:2,400 aerial photographs. The results demonstrate the approach's ability to reconstruct complicated stands. The model-based approach proposed in this thesis is potentially applicable to other surfaces recovering problems with a priori knowledge about objects.

An Improved Decision Tree for Predicting a Major Product in Competing Reactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graham, Kate J.

2014-01-01

When organic chemistry students encounter competing reactions, they are often overwhelmed by the task of evaluating multiple factors that affect the outcome of a reaction. The use of a decision tree is a useful tool to teach students to evaluate a complex situation and propose a likely outcome. Specifically, a decision tree can help students…

Decision Tree Phytoremediation

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-01

aromatic hydrocarbons, and landfill leachates . Phytoremediation has been used for point and nonpoint source hazardous waste control. 1.2 Types of... Phytoremediation Prepared by Interstate Technology and Regulatory Cooperation Work Group Phytoremediation Work Team December 1999 Decision Tree...1999 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Phytoremediation Decision Tree 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

Visualizing Decision-making Behaviours in Agent-based Autonomous Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, Steve; Hennessy, Joseph F. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

The authors will report initial progress on the PIAudit project as a Research Resident Associate Program. The objective of this research is to prototype a tool for visualizing decision-making behaviours in autonomous spacecraft. This visualization will serve as an information source for human analysts. The current visualization prototype for PIAudit combines traditional Decision Trees with Weights of Evidence.

Classification and regression tree analysis vs. multivariable linear and logistic regression methods as statistical tools for studying haemophilia.

PubMed

Henrard, S; Speybroeck, N; Hermans, C

2015-11-01

Haemophilia is a rare genetic haemorrhagic disease characterized by partial or complete deficiency of coagulation factor VIII, for haemophilia A, or IX, for haemophilia B. As in any other medical research domain, the field of haemophilia research is increasingly concerned with finding factors associated with binary or continuous outcomes through multivariable models. Traditional models include multiple logistic regressions, for binary outcomes, and multiple linear regressions for continuous outcomes. Yet these regression models are at times difficult to implement, especially for non-statisticians, and can be difficult to interpret. The present paper sought to didactically explain how, why, and when to use classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for haemophilia research. The CART method is non-parametric and non-linear, based on the repeated partitioning of a sample into subgroups based on a certain criterion. Breiman developed this method in 1984. Classification trees (CTs) are used to analyse categorical outcomes and regression trees (RTs) to analyse continuous ones. The CART methodology has become increasingly popular in the medical field, yet only a few examples of studies using this methodology specifically in haemophilia have to date been published. Two examples using CART analysis and previously published in this field are didactically explained in details. There is increasing interest in using CART analysis in the health domain, primarily due to its ease of implementation, use, and interpretation, thus facilitating medical decision-making. This method should be promoted for analysing continuous or categorical outcomes in haemophilia, when applicable. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing electronic health record systems in emergency departments: Using a decision analytic Bayesian model.

PubMed

Ben-Assuli, Ofir; Leshno, Moshe

2016-09-01

In the last decade, health providers have implemented information systems to improve accuracy in medical diagnosis and decision-making. This article evaluates the impact of an electronic health record on emergency department physicians' diagnosis and admission decisions. A decision analytic approach using a decision tree was constructed to model the admission decision process to assess the added value of medical information retrieved from the electronic health record. Using a Bayesian statistical model, this method was evaluated on two coronary artery disease scenarios. The results show that the cases of coronary artery disease were better diagnosed when the electronic health record was consulted and led to more informed admission decisions. Furthermore, the value of medical information required for a specific admission decision in emergency departments could be quantified. The findings support the notion that physicians and patient healthcare can benefit from implementing electronic health record systems in emergency departments. © The Author(s) 2015.

Multi-agent simulation of generation expansion in electricity markets.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botterud, A; Mahalik, M. R.; Veselka, T. D.

2007-06-01

We present a new multi-agent model of generation expansion in electricity markets. The model simulates generation investment decisions of decentralized generating companies (GenCos) interacting in a complex, multidimensional environment. A probabilistic dispatch algorithm calculates prices and profits for new candidate units in different future states of the system. Uncertainties in future load, hydropower conditions, and competitors actions are represented in a scenario tree, and decision analysis is used to identify the optimal expansion decision for each individual GenCo. We test the model using real data for the Korea power system under different assumptions about market design, market concentration, and GenCo'smore » assumed expectations about their competitors investment decisions.« less

Effect of symptom-based risk stratification on the costs of managing patients with chronic rhinosinusitis symptoms.

PubMed

Tan, Bruce K; Lu, Guanning; Kwasny, Mary J; Hsueh, Wayne D; Shintani-Smith, Stephanie; Conley, David B; Chandra, Rakesh K; Kern, Robert C; Leung, Randy

2013-11-01

Current symptom criteria poorly predict a diagnosis of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) resulting in excessive treatment of patients with presumed CRS. The objective of this study was analyze the positive predictive value of individual symptoms, or symptoms in combination, in patients with CRS symptoms and examine the costs of the subsequent diagnostic algorithm using a decision tree-based cost analysis. We analyzed previously collected patient-reported symptoms from a cross-sectional study of patients who had received a computed tomography (CT) scan of their sinuses at a tertiary care otolaryngology clinic for evaluation of CRS symptoms to calculate the positive predictive value of individual symptoms. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis then optimized combinations of symptoms and thresholds to identify CRS patients. The calculated positive predictive values were applied to a previously developed decision tree that compared an upfront CT (uCT) algorithm against an empiric medical therapy (EMT) algorithm with further analysis that considered the availability of point of care (POC) imaging. The positive predictive value of individual symptoms ranged from 0.21 for patients reporting forehead pain and to 0.69 for patients reporting hyposmia. The CART model constructed a dichotomous model based on forehead pain, maxillary pain, hyposmia, nasal discharge, and facial pain (C-statistic 0.83). If POC CT were available, median costs ($64-$415) favored using the upfront CT for all individual symptoms. If POC CT was unavailable, median costs favored uCT for most symptoms except intercanthal pain (-$15), hyposmia (-$100), and discolored nasal discharge (-$24), although these symptoms became equivocal on cost sensitivity analysis. The three-tiered CART model could subcategorize patients into tiers where uCT was always favorable (median costs: $332-$504) and others for which EMT was always favorable (median costs -$121 to -$275). The uCT algorithm was always more costly if the nasal endoscopy was positive. Among patients with classic CRS symptoms, the frequency of individual symptoms varied the likelihood of a CRS diagnosis marginally. Only hyposmia, the absence of facial pain, and discolored discharge sufficiently increased the likelihood of diagnosis to potentially make EMT less costly. The development of an evidence-based, multisymptom-based risk stratification model could substantially affect the management costs of the subsequent diagnostic algorithm. © 2013 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc).

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc). PMID:20846413

Building a Computer Program to Support Children, Parents, and Distraction during Healthcare Procedures

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Ann Marie; Kleiber, Charmaine; Ataman, Kaan; Street, W. Nick; Zimmerman, M. Bridget; Ersig, Anne L.

2012-01-01

This secondary data analysis used data mining methods to develop predictive models of child risk for distress during a healthcare procedure. Data used came from a study that predicted factors associated with children’s responses to an intravenous catheter insertion while parents provided distraction coaching. From the 255 items used in the primary study, 44 predictive items were identified through automatic feature selection and used to build support vector machine regression models. Models were validated using multiple cross-validation tests and by comparing variables identified as explanatory in the traditional versus support vector machine regression. Rule-based approaches were applied to the model outputs to identify overall risk for distress. A decision tree was then applied to evidence-based instructions for tailoring distraction to characteristics and preferences of the parent and child. The resulting decision support computer application, the Children, Parents and Distraction (CPaD), is being used in research. Future use will support practitioners in deciding the level and type of distraction intervention needed by a child undergoing a healthcare procedure. PMID:22805121

Determining the Best Treatment for Coronal Angular Deformity of the Knee Joint in Growing Children: A Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Sung, Ki Hyuk; Chung, Chin Youb; Lee, Kyoung Min; Lee, Seung Yeol; Choi, In Ho; Cho, Tae-Joon; Yoo, Won Joon; Park, Moon Seok

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the best treatment modality for coronal angular deformity of the knee joint in growing children using decision analysis. A decision tree was created to evaluate 3 treatment modalities for coronal angular deformity in growing children: temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using staples, percutaneous screws, or a tension band plate. A decision analysis model was constructed containing the final outcome score, probability of metal failure, and incomplete correction of deformity. The final outcome was defined as health-related quality of life and was used as a utility in the decision tree. The probabilities associated with each case were obtained by literature review, and health-related quality of life was evaluated by a questionnaire completed by 25 pediatric orthopedic experts. Our decision analysis model favored temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate over temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using percutaneous screws or stapling, with utilities of 0.969, 0.957, and 0.962, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate was better than temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using percutaneous screws, when the overall complication rate of hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate was lower than 15.7%. Two-way sensitivity analysis showed that hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate was more beneficial than temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using percutaneous screws. PMID:25276801

Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

PubMed

Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

2012-01-01

Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

The information extraction of Gannan citrus orchard based on the GF-1 remote sensing image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Chen, Y. L.

2017-02-01

The production of Gannan oranges is the largest in China, which occupied an important part in the world. The extraction of citrus orchard quickly and effectively has important significance for fruit pathogen defense, fruit production and industrial planning. The traditional spectra extraction method of citrus orchard based on pixel has a lower classification accuracy, difficult to avoid the “pepper phenomenon”. In the influence of noise, the phenomenon that different spectrums of objects have the same spectrum is graveness. Taking Xunwu County citrus fruit planting area of Ganzhou as the research object, aiming at the disadvantage of the lower accuracy of the traditional method based on image element classification method, a decision tree classification method based on object-oriented rule set is proposed. Firstly, multi-scale segmentation is performed on the GF-1 remote sensing image data of the study area. Subsequently the sample objects are selected for statistical analysis of spectral features and geometric features. Finally, combined with the concept of decision tree classification, a variety of empirical values of single band threshold, NDVI, band combination and object geometry characteristics are used hierarchically to execute the information extraction of the research area, and multi-scale segmentation and hierarchical decision tree classification is implemented. The classification results are verified with the confusion matrix, and the overall Kappa index is 87.91%.

Prediction of microRNA target genes using an efficient genetic algorithm-based decision tree.

PubMed

Rabiee-Ghahfarrokhi, Behzad; Rafiei, Fariba; Niknafs, Ali Akbar; Zamani, Behzad

2015-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in almost all plants and animals. They play an important role in key processes, such as proliferation, apoptosis, and pathogen-host interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which miRNAs act are not fully understood. The first step toward unraveling the function of a particular miRNA is the identification of its direct targets. This step has shown to be quite challenging in animals primarily because of incomplete complementarities between miRNA and target mRNAs. In recent years, the use of machine-learning techniques has greatly increased the prediction of miRNA targets, avoiding the need for costly and time-consuming experiments to achieve miRNA targets experimentally. Among the most important machine-learning algorithms are decision trees, which classify data based on extracted rules. In the present work, we used a genetic algorithm in combination with C4.5 decision tree for prediction of miRNA targets. We applied our proposed method to a validated human datasets. We nearly achieved 93.9% accuracy of classification, which could be related to the selection of best rules.

Prediction of microRNA target genes using an efficient genetic algorithm-based decision tree

PubMed Central

Rabiee-Ghahfarrokhi, Behzad; Rafiei, Fariba; Niknafs, Ali Akbar; Zamani, Behzad

2015-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in almost all plants and animals. They play an important role in key processes, such as proliferation, apoptosis, and pathogen–host interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which miRNAs act are not fully understood. The first step toward unraveling the function of a particular miRNA is the identification of its direct targets. This step has shown to be quite challenging in animals primarily because of incomplete complementarities between miRNA and target mRNAs. In recent years, the use of machine-learning techniques has greatly increased the prediction of miRNA targets, avoiding the need for costly and time-consuming experiments to achieve miRNA targets experimentally. Among the most important machine-learning algorithms are decision trees, which classify data based on extracted rules. In the present work, we used a genetic algorithm in combination with C4.5 decision tree for prediction of miRNA targets. We applied our proposed method to a validated human datasets. We nearly achieved 93.9% accuracy of classification, which could be related to the selection of best rules. PMID:26649272

Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

15 CFR Supplement 1 to Part 732 - Decision Tree

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Decision Tree 1 Supplement 1 to Part 732 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued) BUREAU... THE EAR Pt. 732, Supp. 1 Supplement 1 to Part 732—Decision Tree ER06FE04.000 [69 FR 5687, Feb. 6, 2004] ...

15 CFR Supplement No 1 to Part 732 - Decision Tree

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Decision Tree No Supplement No 1 to Part 732 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued... THE EAR Pt. 732, Supp. 1 Supplement No 1 to Part 732—Decision Tree ER06FE04.000 [69 FR 5687, Feb. 6...

15 CFR Supplement No 1 to Part 732 - Decision Tree

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Decision Tree No Supplement No 1 to Part 732 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued... THE EAR Pt. 732, Supp. 1 Supplement No 1 to Part 732—Decision Tree ER06FE04.000 [69 FR 5687, Feb. 6...

15 CFR Supplement 1 to Part 732 - Decision Tree

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Decision Tree 1 Supplement 1 to Part 732 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued) BUREAU... THE EAR Pt. 732, Supp. 1 Supplement 1 to Part 732—Decision Tree ER06FE04.000 [69 FR 5687, Feb. 6, 2004] ...

15 CFR Supplement 1 to Part 732 - Decision Tree

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Decision Tree 1 Supplement 1 to Part 732 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued) BUREAU... THE EAR Pt. 732, Supp. 1 Supplement 1 to Part 732—Decision Tree ER06FE04.000 [69 FR 5687, Feb. 6, 2004] ...

Software tool for data mining and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Ye, Chenzhou; Chen, Nianyi

2002-03-01

A software tool for data mining is introduced, which integrates pattern recognition (PCA, Fisher, clustering, hyperenvelop, regression), artificial intelligence (knowledge representation, decision trees), statistical learning (rough set, support vector machine), computational intelligence (neural network, genetic algorithm, fuzzy systems). It consists of nine function models: pattern recognition, decision trees, association rule, fuzzy rule, neural network, genetic algorithm, Hyper Envelop, support vector machine, visualization. The principle and knowledge representation of some function models of data mining are described. The software tool of data mining is realized by Visual C++ under Windows 2000. Nonmonotony in data mining is dealt with by concept hierarchy and layered mining. The software tool of data mining has satisfactorily applied in the prediction of regularities of the formation of ternary intermetallic compounds in alloy systems, and diagnosis of brain glioma.

Activity classification using realistic data from wearable sensors.

PubMed

Pärkkä, Juha; Ermes, Miikka; Korpipää, Panu; Mäntyjärvi, Jani; Peltola, Johannes; Korhonen, Ilkka

2006-01-01

Automatic classification of everyday activities can be used for promotion of health-enhancing physical activities and a healthier lifestyle. In this paper, methods used for classification of everyday activities like walking, running, and cycling are described. The aim of the study was to find out how to recognize activities, which sensors are useful and what kind of signal processing and classification is required. A large and realistic data library of sensor data was collected. Sixteen test persons took part in the data collection, resulting in approximately 31 h of annotated, 35-channel data recorded in an everyday environment. The test persons carried a set of wearable sensors while performing several activities during the 2-h measurement session. Classification results of three classifiers are shown: custom decision tree, automatically generated decision tree, and artificial neural network. The classification accuracies using leave-one-subject-out cross validation range from 58 to 97% for custom decision tree classifier, from 56 to 97% for automatically generated decision tree, and from 22 to 96% for artificial neural network. Total classification accuracy is 82 % for custom decision tree classifier, 86% for automatically generated decision tree, and 82% for artificial neural network.

Personalized Risk Prediction in Clinical Oncology Research: Applications and Practical Issues Using Survival Trees and Random Forests.

PubMed

Hu, Chen; Steingrimsson, Jon Arni

2018-01-01

A crucial component of making individualized treatment decisions is to accurately predict each patient's disease risk. In clinical oncology, disease risks are often measured through time-to-event data, such as overall survival and progression/recurrence-free survival, and are often subject to censoring. Risk prediction models based on recursive partitioning methods are becoming increasingly popular largely due to their ability to handle nonlinear relationships, higher-order interactions, and/or high-dimensional covariates. The most popular recursive partitioning methods are versions of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm, which builds a simple interpretable tree structured model. With the aim of increasing prediction accuracy, the random forest algorithm averages multiple CART trees, creating a flexible risk prediction model. Risk prediction models used in clinical oncology commonly use both traditional demographic and tumor pathological factors as well as high-dimensional genetic markers and treatment parameters from multimodality treatments. In this article, we describe the most commonly used extensions of the CART and random forest algorithms to right-censored outcomes. We focus on how they differ from the methods for noncensored outcomes, and how the different splitting rules and methods for cost-complexity pruning impact these algorithms. We demonstrate these algorithms by analyzing a randomized Phase III clinical trial of breast cancer. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to compare the prediction accuracy of survival forests with more commonly used regression models under various scenarios. These simulation studies aim to evaluate how sensitive the prediction accuracy is to the underlying model specifications, the choice of tuning parameters, and the degrees of missing covariates.

Predictive Toxicology of cobalt ferrite nanoparticles: comparative in-vitro study of different cellular models using methods of knowledge discovery from data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cobalt-ferrite nanoparticles (Co-Fe NPs) are attractive for nanotechnology-based therapies. Thus, exploring their effect on viability of seven different cell lines representing different organs of the human body is highly important. Methods The toxicological effects of Co-Fe NPs were studied by in-vitro exposure of A549 and NCIH441 cell-lines (lung), precision-cut lung slices from rat, HepG2 cell-line (liver), MDCK cell-line (kidney), Caco-2 TC7 cell-line (intestine), TK6 (lymphoblasts) and primary mouse dendritic-cells. Toxicity was examined following exposure to Co-Fe NPs in the concentration range of 0.05 -1.2 mM for 24 and 72 h, using Alamar blue, MTT and neutral red assays. Changes in oxidative stress were determined by a dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate based assay. Data analysis and predictive modeling of the obtained data sets were executed by employing methods of Knowledge Discovery from Data with emphasis on a decision tree model (J48). Results Different dose–response curves of cell viability were obtained for each of the seven cell lines upon exposure to Co-Fe NPs. Increase of oxidative stress was induced by Co-Fe NPs and found to be dependent on the cell type. A high linear correlation (R2=0.97) was found between the toxicity of Co-Fe NPs and the extent of ROS generation following their exposure to Co-Fe NPs. The algorithm we applied to model the observed toxicity belongs to a type of supervised classifier. The decision tree model yielded the following order with decrease of the ranking parameter: NP concentrations (as the most influencing parameter), cell type (possessing the following hierarchy of cell sensitivity towards viability decrease: TK6 > Lung slices > NCIH441 > Caco-2 = MDCK > A549 > HepG2 = Dendritic) and time of exposure, where the highest-ranking parameter (NP concentration) provides the highest information gain with respect to toxicity. The validity of the chosen decision tree model J48 was established by yielding a higher accuracy than that of the well-known “naive bayes” classifier. Conclusions The observed correlation between the oxidative stress, caused by the presence of the Co-Fe NPs, with the hierarchy of sensitivity of the different cell types towards toxicity, suggests that oxidative stress is one possible mechanism for the toxicity of Co-Fe NPs. PMID:23895432

Forest Tree Species Distribution Mapping Using Landsat Satellite Imagery and Topographic Variables with the Maximum Entropy Method in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao Chiang, Shou; Valdez, Miguel; Chen, Chi-Farn

2016-06-01

Forest is a very important ecosystem and natural resource for living things. Based on forest inventories, government is able to make decisions to converse, improve and manage forests in a sustainable way. Field work for forestry investigation is difficult and time consuming, because it needs intensive physical labor and the costs are high, especially surveying in remote mountainous regions. A reliable forest inventory can give us a more accurate and timely information to develop new and efficient approaches of forest management. The remote sensing technology has been recently used for forest investigation at a large scale. To produce an informative forest inventory, forest attributes, including tree species are unavoidably required to be considered. In this study the aim is to classify forest tree species in Erdenebulgan County, Huwsgul province in Mongolia, using Maximum Entropy method. The study area is covered by a dense forest which is almost 70% of total territorial extension of Erdenebulgan County and is located in a high mountain region in northern Mongolia. For this study, Landsat satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were acquired to perform tree species mapping. The forest tree species inventory map was collected from the Forest Division of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature and Environment as training data and also used as ground truth to perform the accuracy assessment of the tree species classification. Landsat images and DEM were processed for maximum entropy modeling, and this study applied the model with two experiments. The first one is to use Landsat surface reflectance for tree species classification; and the second experiment incorporates terrain variables in addition to the Landsat surface reflectance to perform the tree species classification. All experimental results were compared with the tree species inventory to assess the classification accuracy. Results show that the second one which uses Landsat surface reflectance coupled with terrain variables produced better result, with the higher overall accuracy and kappa coefficient than first experiment. The results indicate that the Maximum Entropy method is an applicable, and to classify tree species using satellite imagery data coupled with terrain information can improve the classification of tree species in the study area.

Decision analysis in clinical cardiology: When is coronary angiography required in aortic stenosis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgeson, S.; Meyer, K.B.; Pauker, S.G.

1990-03-15

Decision analysis offers a reproducible, explicit approach to complex clinical decisions. It consists of developing a model, typically a decision tree, that separates choices from chances and that specifies and assigns relative values to outcomes. Sensitivity analysis allows exploration of alternative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows the relation between dollars spent and improved health outcomes achieved. In a tutorial format, this approach is applied to the decision whether to perform coronary angiography in a patient who requires aortic valve replacement for critical aortic stenosis.

A decision support model for improving a multi-family housing complex based on CO2 emission from electricity consumption.

PubMed

Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong

2012-12-15

The number of deteriorated multi-family housing complexes in South Korea continues to rise, and consequently their electricity consumption is also increasing. This needs to be addressed as part of the nation's efforts to reduce energy consumption. The objective of this research was to develop a decision support model for determining the need to improve multi-family housing complexes. In this research, 1664 cases located in Seoul were selected for model development. The research team collected the characteristics and electricity energy consumption data of these projects in 2009-2010. The following were carried out in this research: (i) using the Decision Tree, multi-family housing complexes were clustered based on their electricity energy consumption; (ii) using Case-Based Reasoning, similar cases were retrieved from the same cluster; and (iii) using a combination of Multiple Regression Analysis, Artificial Neural Network, and Genetic Algorithm, the prediction performance of the developed model was improved. The results of this research can be used as follows: (i) as basic research data for continuously managing several energy consumption data of multi-family housing complexes; (ii) as advanced research data for predicting energy consumption based on the project characteristics; (iii) as practical research data for selecting the most optimal multi-family housing complex with the most potential in terms of energy savings; and (iv) as consistent and objective criteria for incentives and penalties. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perception Modelling of Visitors in Vargas Museum Using Agent-Based Simulation and Visibility Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carcellar, B. G., III

2017-10-01

Museum exhibit management is one of the usual undertakings of museum facilitators. Art works must be strategically placed to achieve maximum viewing from the visitors. The positioning of the artworks also highly influences the quality of experience of the visitors. One solution in such problems is to utilize GIS and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). In ABM, persistent interacting objects are modelled as agents. These agents are given attributes and behaviors that describe their properties as well as their motion. In this study, ABM approach that incorporates GIS is utilized to perform analyticcal assessment on the placement of the artworks in the Vargas Museum. GIS serves as the backbone for the spatial aspect of the simulation such as the placement of the artwork exhibits, as well as possible obstructions to perception such as the columns, walls, and panel boards. Visibility Analysis is also done to the model in GIS to assess the overall visibility of the artworks. The ABM is done using the initial GIS outputs and GAMA, an open source ABM software. Visitors are modelled as agents, moving inside the museum following a specific decision tree. The simulation is done in three use cases: the 10 %, 20 %, and 30 % chance of having a visitor in the next minute. For the case of the said museum, the 10 % chance is determined to be the closest simulation case to the actual and the recommended minimum time to achieve a maximum artwork perception is 1 hour and 40 minutes. Initial assessment of the results shows that even after 3 hours of simulation, small parts of the exhibit show lack of viewers, due to its distance from the entrance. A more detailed decision tree for the visitor agents can be incorporated to have a more realistic simulation.

Evaluation of a Decision Support System for Obstructive Sleep Apnea with Nonlinear Analysis of Respiratory Signals.

PubMed

Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Tsara, Venetia; Bratsas, Charalambos; Sichletidis, Lazaros; Karvounis, Charalambos; Maglaveras, Nikolaos

2016-01-01

Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) is a common sleep disorder requiring the time/money consuming polysomnography for diagnosis. Alternative methods for initial evaluation are sought. Our aim was the prediction of Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) in patients potentially suffering from OSA based on nonlinear analysis of respiratory biosignals during sleep, a method that is related to the pathophysiology of the disorder. Patients referred to a Sleep Unit (135) underwent full polysomnography. Three nonlinear indices (Largest Lyapunov Exponent, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and Approximate Entropy) extracted from two biosignals (airflow from a nasal cannula, thoracic movement) and one linear derived from Oxygen saturation provided input to a data mining application with contemporary classification algorithms for the creation of predictive models for AHI. A linear regression model presented a correlation coefficient of 0.77 in predicting AHI. With a cutoff value of AHI = 8, the sensitivity and specificity were 93% and 71.4% in discrimination between patients and normal subjects. The decision tree for the discrimination between patients and normal had sensitivity and specificity of 91% and 60%, respectively. Certain obtained nonlinear values correlated significantly with commonly accepted physiological parameters of people suffering from OSA. We developed a predictive model for the presence/severity of OSA using a simple linear equation and additional decision trees with nonlinear features extracted from 3 respiratory recordings. The accuracy of the methodology is high and the findings provide insight to the underlying pathophysiology of the syndrome. Reliable predictions of OSA are possible using linear and nonlinear indices from only 3 respiratory signals during sleep. The proposed models could lead to a better study of the pathophysiology of OSA and facilitate initial evaluation/follow up of suspected patients OSA utilizing a practical low cost methodology. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01161381.

Bayesian updating in a fault tree model for shipwreck risk assessment.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M

2017-07-15

Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating Decision Tree and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for Subtype Prediction of Human Influenza A Virus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attaluri, Pavan K.; Chen, Zhengxin; Weerakoon, Aruna M.; Lu, Guoqing

Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) has significant impact in bioinformatics. In the research reported here, we explore the integration of decision tree (DT) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for subtype prediction of human influenza A virus. Infection with influenza viruses continues to be an important public health problem. Viral strains of subtype H3N2 and H1N1 circulates in humans at least twice annually. The subtype detection depends mainly on the antigenic assay, which is time-consuming and not fully accurate. We have developed a Web system for accurate subtype detection of human influenza virus sequences. The preliminary experiment showed that this system is easy-to-use and powerful in identifying human influenza subtypes. Our next step is to examine the informative positions at the protein level and extend its current functionality to detect more subtypes. The web functions can be accessed at http://glee.ist.unomaha.edu/.

Joint Extraction of Entities and Relations Using Reinforcement Learning and Deep Learning.

PubMed

Feng, Yuntian; Zhang, Hongjun; Hao, Wenning; Chen, Gang

2017-01-01

We use both reinforcement learning and deep learning to simultaneously extract entities and relations from unstructured texts. For reinforcement learning, we model the task as a two-step decision process. Deep learning is used to automatically capture the most important information from unstructured texts, which represent the state in the decision process. By designing the reward function per step, our proposed method can pass the information of entity extraction to relation extraction and obtain feedback in order to extract entities and relations simultaneously. Firstly, we use bidirectional LSTM to model the context information, which realizes preliminary entity extraction. On the basis of the extraction results, attention based method can represent the sentences that include target entity pair to generate the initial state in the decision process. Then we use Tree-LSTM to represent relation mentions to generate the transition state in the decision process. Finally, we employ Q -Learning algorithm to get control policy π in the two-step decision process. Experiments on ACE2005 demonstrate that our method attains better performance than the state-of-the-art method and gets a 2.4% increase in recall-score.

Joint Extraction of Entities and Relations Using Reinforcement Learning and Deep Learning

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hongjun; Chen, Gang

2017-01-01

We use both reinforcement learning and deep learning to simultaneously extract entities and relations from unstructured texts. For reinforcement learning, we model the task as a two-step decision process. Deep learning is used to automatically capture the most important information from unstructured texts, which represent the state in the decision process. By designing the reward function per step, our proposed method can pass the information of entity extraction to relation extraction and obtain feedback in order to extract entities and relations simultaneously. Firstly, we use bidirectional LSTM to model the context information, which realizes preliminary entity extraction. On the basis of the extraction results, attention based method can represent the sentences that include target entity pair to generate the initial state in the decision process. Then we use Tree-LSTM to represent relation mentions to generate the transition state in the decision process. Finally, we employ Q-Learning algorithm to get control policy π in the two-step decision process. Experiments on ACE2005 demonstrate that our method attains better performance than the state-of-the-art method and gets a 2.4% increase in recall-score. PMID:28894463

In silico prediction of toxicity of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis by using genetic algorithm and decision tree-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Abbasitabar, Fatemeh; Zare-Shahabadi, Vahid

2017-04-01

Risk assessment of chemicals is an important issue in environmental protection; however, there is a huge lack of experimental data for a large number of end-points. The experimental determination of toxicity of chemicals involves high costs and time-consuming process. In silico tools such as quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (QSTR) models, which are constructed on the basis of computational molecular descriptors, can predict missing data for toxic end-points for existing or even not yet synthesized chemicals. Phenol derivatives are known to be aquatic pollutants. With this background, we aimed to develop an accurate and reliable QSTR model for the prediction of toxicity of 206 phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis. A multiple linear regression (MLR)-based QSTR was obtained using a powerful descriptor selection tool named Memorized_ACO algorithm. Statistical parameters of the model were 0.72 and 0.68 for R training 2 and R test 2 , respectively. To develop a high-quality QSTR model, classification and regression tree (CART) was employed. Two approaches were considered: (1) phenols were classified into different modes of action using CART and (2) the phenols in the training set were partitioned to several subsets by a tree in such a manner that in each subset, a high-quality MLR could be developed. For the first approach, the statistical parameters of the resultant QSTR model were improved to 0.83 and 0.75 for R training 2 and R test 2 , respectively. Genetic algorithm was employed in the second approach to obtain an optimal tree, and it was shown that the final QSTR model provided excellent prediction accuracy for the training and test sets (R training 2 and R test 2 were 0.91 and 0.93, respectively). The mean absolute error for the test set was computed as 0.1615. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling algorithms for validation of supervised learning models for Ising-like systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portman, Nataliya; Tamblyn, Isaac

2017-12-01

In this paper, we build and explore supervised learning models of ferromagnetic system behavior, using Monte-Carlo sampling of the spin configuration space generated by the 2D Ising model. Given the enormous size of the space of all possible Ising model realizations, the question arises as to how to choose a reasonable number of samples that will form physically meaningful and non-intersecting training and testing datasets. Here, we propose a sampling technique called ;ID-MH; that uses the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm creating Markov process across energy levels within the predefined configuration subspace. We show that application of this method retains phase transitions in both training and testing datasets and serves the purpose of validation of a machine learning algorithm. For larger lattice dimensions, ID-MH is not feasible as it requires knowledge of the complete configuration space. As such, we develop a new ;block-ID; sampling strategy: it decomposes the given structure into square blocks with lattice dimension N ≤ 5 and uses ID-MH sampling of candidate blocks. Further comparison of the performance of commonly used machine learning methods such as random forests, decision trees, k nearest neighbors and artificial neural networks shows that the PCA-based Decision Tree regressor is the most accurate predictor of magnetizations of the Ising model. For energies, however, the accuracy of prediction is not satisfactory, highlighting the need to consider more algorithmically complex methods (e.g., deep learning).

Rough Set Based Splitting Criterion for Binary Decision Tree Classifiers

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-26

Alata O. Fernandez-Maloigne C., and Ferrie J.C. (2001). Unsupervised Algorithm for the Segmentation of Three-Dimensional Magnetic Resonance Brain ...instinctual and learned responses in the brain , causing it to make decisions based on patterns in the stimuli. Using this deceptively simple process...2001. [2] Bohn C. (1997). An Incremental Unsupervised Learning Scheme for Function Approximation. In: Proceedings of the 1997 IEEE International

Comparison of Ordinal and Nominal Classification Trees to Predict Ordinal Expert-Based Occupational Exposure Estimates in a Case–Control Study

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Archer, Kellie J.; Burstyn, Igor; Yu, Kai; Stewart, Patricia A.; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Armenti, Karla; Silverman, Debra T.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2015-01-01

Objectives: To evaluate occupational exposures in case–control studies, exposure assessors typically review each job individually to assign exposure estimates. This process lacks transparency and does not provide a mechanism for recreating the decision rules in other studies. In our previous work, nominal (unordered categorical) classification trees (CTs) generally successfully predicted expert-assessed ordinal exposure estimates (i.e. none, low, medium, high) derived from occupational questionnaire responses, but room for improvement remained. Our objective was to determine if using recently developed ordinal CTs would improve the performance of nominal trees in predicting ordinal occupational diesel exhaust exposure estimates in a case–control study. Methods: We used one nominal and four ordinal CT methods to predict expert-assessed probability, intensity, and frequency estimates of occupational diesel exhaust exposure (each categorized as none, low, medium, or high) derived from questionnaire responses for the 14983 jobs in the New England Bladder Cancer Study. To replicate the common use of a single tree, we applied each method to a single sample of 70% of the jobs, using 15% to test and 15% to validate each method. To characterize variability in performance, we conducted a resampling analysis that repeated the sample draws 100 times. We evaluated agreement between the tree predictions and expert estimates using Somers’ d, which measures differences in terms of ordinal association between predicted and observed scores and can be interpreted similarly to a correlation coefficient. Results: From the resampling analysis, compared with the nominal tree, an ordinal CT method that used a quadratic misclassification function and controlled tree size based on total misclassification cost had a slightly better predictive performance that was statistically significant for the frequency metric (Somers’ d: nominal tree = 0.61; ordinal tree = 0.63) and similar performance for the probability (nominal = 0.65; ordinal = 0.66) and intensity (nominal = 0.65; ordinal = 0.65) metrics. The best ordinal CT predicted fewer cases of large disagreement with the expert assessments (i.e. no exposure predicted for a job with high exposure and vice versa) compared with the nominal tree across all of the exposure metrics. For example, the percent of jobs with expert-assigned high intensity of exposure that the model predicted as no exposure was 29% for the nominal tree and 22% for the best ordinal tree. Conclusions: The overall agreements were similar across CT models; however, the use of ordinal models reduced the magnitude of the discrepancy when disagreements occurred. As the best performing model can vary by situation, researchers should consider evaluating multiple CT methods to maximize the predictive performance within their data. PMID:25433003

Contrasting determinants for the introduction and establishment success of exotic birds in Taiwan using decision trees models.

PubMed

Liang, Shih-Hsiung; Walther, Bruno Andreas; Shieh, Bao-Sen

2017-01-01

Biological invasions have become a major threat to biodiversity, and identifying determinants underlying success at different stages of the invasion process is essential for both prevention management and testing ecological theories. To investigate variables associated with different stages of the invasion process in a local region such as Taiwan, potential problems using traditional parametric analyses include too many variables of different data types (nominal, ordinal, and interval) and a relatively small data set with too many missing values. We therefore used five decision tree models instead and compared their performance. Our dataset contains 283 exotic bird species which were transported to Taiwan; of these 283 species, 95 species escaped to the field successfully (introduction success); of these 95 introduced species, 36 species reproduced in the field of Taiwan successfully (establishment success). For each species, we collected 22 variables associated with human selectivity and species traits which may determine success during the introduction stage and establishment stage. For each decision tree model, we performed three variable treatments: (I) including all 22 variables, (II) excluding nominal variables, and (III) excluding nominal variables and replacing ordinal values with binary ones. Five performance measures were used to compare models, namely, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, precision, recall, and accuracy. The gradient boosting models performed best overall among the five decision tree models for both introduction and establishment success and across variable treatments. The most important variables for predicting introduction success were the bird family, the number of invaded countries, and variables associated with environmental adaptation, whereas the most important variables for predicting establishment success were the number of invaded countries and variables associated with reproduction. Our final optimal models achieved relatively high performance values, and we discuss differences in performance with regard to sample size and variable treatments. Our results showed that, for both the establishment model and introduction model, the number of invaded countries was the most important or second most important determinant, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that future success for introduction and establishment of exotic birds may be gauged by simply looking at previous success in invading other countries. Finally, we found that species traits related to reproduction were more important in establishment models than in introduction models; importantly, these determinants were not averaged but either minimum or maximum values of species traits. Therefore, we suggest that in addition to averaged values, reproductive potential represented by minimum and maximum values of species traits should be considered in invasion studies.

Contrasting determinants for the introduction and establishment success of exotic birds in Taiwan using decision trees models

PubMed Central

Liang, Shih-Hsiung; Walther, Bruno Andreas

2017-01-01

Background Biological invasions have become a major threat to biodiversity, and identifying determinants underlying success at different stages of the invasion process is essential for both prevention management and testing ecological theories. To investigate variables associated with different stages of the invasion process in a local region such as Taiwan, potential problems using traditional parametric analyses include too many variables of different data types (nominal, ordinal, and interval) and a relatively small data set with too many missing values. Methods We therefore used five decision tree models instead and compared their performance. Our dataset contains 283 exotic bird species which were transported to Taiwan; of these 283 species, 95 species escaped to the field successfully (introduction success); of these 95 introduced species, 36 species reproduced in the field of Taiwan successfully (establishment success). For each species, we collected 22 variables associated with human selectivity and species traits which may determine success during the introduction stage and establishment stage. For each decision tree model, we performed three variable treatments: (I) including all 22 variables, (II) excluding nominal variables, and (III) excluding nominal variables and replacing ordinal values with binary ones. Five performance measures were used to compare models, namely, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, precision, recall, and accuracy. Results The gradient boosting models performed best overall among the five decision tree models for both introduction and establishment success and across variable treatments. The most important variables for predicting introduction success were the bird family, the number of invaded countries, and variables associated with environmental adaptation, whereas the most important variables for predicting establishment success were the number of invaded countries and variables associated with reproduction. Discussion Our final optimal models achieved relatively high performance values, and we discuss differences in performance with regard to sample size and variable treatments. Our results showed that, for both the establishment model and introduction model, the number of invaded countries was the most important or second most important determinant, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that future success for introduction and establishment of exotic birds may be gauged by simply looking at previous success in invading other countries. Finally, we found that species traits related to reproduction were more important in establishment models than in introduction models; importantly, these determinants were not averaged but either minimum or maximum values of species traits. Therefore, we suggest that in addition to averaged values, reproductive potential represented by minimum and maximum values of species traits should be considered in invasion studies. PMID:28316893

Multiple Forensic Interviews during Investigations of Child Sexual Abuse: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Block, Stephanie D.; Foster, E. Michael; Pierce, Matthew W.; Berkoff, Molly C.; Runyan, Desmond K.

2013-01-01

In suspected child sexual abuse some professionals recommend multiple child interviews to increase the likelihood of disclosure or more details to improve decision-making and increase convictions. We modeled the yield of a policy of routinely conducting multiple child interviews and increased convictions. Our decision tree reflected the path of a…

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

2016-01-01

Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P < 0.01). A clinically useful classification tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

Pre-operative prediction of surgical morbidity in children: comparison of five statistical models.

PubMed

Cooper, Jennifer N; Wei, Lai; Fernandez, Soledad A; Minneci, Peter C; Deans, Katherine J

2015-02-01

The accurate prediction of surgical risk is important to patients and physicians. Logistic regression (LR) models are typically used to estimate these risks. However, in the fields of data mining and machine-learning, many alternative classification and prediction algorithms have been developed. This study aimed to compare the performance of LR to several data mining algorithms for predicting 30-day surgical morbidity in children. We used the 2012 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric dataset to compare the performance of (1) a LR model that assumed linearity and additivity (simple LR model) (2) a LR model incorporating restricted cubic splines and interactions (flexible LR model) (3) a support vector machine, (4) a random forest and (5) boosted classification trees for predicting surgical morbidity. The ensemble-based methods showed significantly higher accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV than the simple LR model. However, none of the models performed better than the flexible LR model in terms of the aforementioned measures or in model calibration or discrimination. Support vector machines, random forests, and boosted classification trees do not show better performance than LR for predicting pediatric surgical morbidity. After further validation, the flexible LR model derived in this study could be used to assist with clinical decision-making based on patient-specific surgical risks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the safety of co-exposure to food packaging migrants in food and water using the maximum cumulative ratio and an established decision tree.

PubMed

Price, Paul; Zaleski, Rosemary; Hollnagel, Heli; Ketelslegers, Hans; Han, Xianglu

2014-01-01

Food contact materials can release low levels of multiple chemicals (migrants) into foods and beverages, to which individuals can be exposed through food consumption. This paper investigates the potential for non-carcinogenic effects from exposure to multiple migrants using the Cefic Mixtures Ad hoc Team (MIAT) decision tree. The purpose of the assessment is to demonstrate how the decision tree can be applied to concurrent exposures to multiple migrants using either hazard or structural data on the specific components, i.e. based on the acceptable daily intake (ADI) or the threshold of toxicological concern. The tree was used to assess risks from co-exposure to migrants reported in a study on non-intentionally added substances (NIAS) eluting from food contact-grade plastic and two studies of water bottles: one on organic compounds and the other on ionic forms of various elements. The MIAT decision tree assigns co-exposures to different risk management groups (I, II, IIIA and IIIB) based on the hazard index, and the maximum cumulative ratio (MCR). The predicted co-exposures for all examples fell into Group II (low toxicological concern) and had MCR values of 1.3 and 2.4 (indicating that one or two components drove the majority of the mixture's toxicity). MCR values from the study of inorganic ions (126 mixtures) ranged from 1.1 to 3.8 for glass and from 1.1 to 5.0 for plastic containers. The MCR values indicated that a single compound drove toxicity in 58% of the mixtures. MCR values also declined with increases in the hazard index for the screening assessments of exposure (suggesting fewer substances contributed as risk potential increased). Overall, it can be concluded that the data on co-exposure to migrants evaluated in these case studies are of low toxicological concern and the safety assessment approach described in this paper was shown to be a helpful screening tool.

A survey of decision tree classifier methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safavian, S. R.; Landgrebe, David

1991-01-01

Decision tree classifiers (DTCs) are used successfully in many diverse areas such as radar signal classification, character recognition, remote sensing, medical diagnosis, expert systems, and speech recognition. Perhaps the most important feature of DTCs is their capability to break down a complex decision-making process into a collection of simpler decisions, thus providing a solution which is often easier to interpret. A survey of current methods is presented for DTC designs and the various existing issues. After considering potential advantages of DTCs over single-state classifiers, subjects of tree structure design, feature selection at each internal node, and decision and search strategies are discussed.

A survey of decision tree classifier methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safavian, S. Rasoul; Landgrebe, David

1990-01-01

Decision Tree Classifiers (DTC's) are used successfully in many diverse areas such as radar signal classification, character recognition, remote sensing, medical diagnosis, expert systems, and speech recognition. Perhaps, the most important feature of DTC's is their capability to break down a complex decision-making process into a collection of simpler decisions, thus providing a solution which is often easier to interpret. A survey of current methods is presented for DTC designs and the various existing issue. After considering potential advantages of DTC's over single stage classifiers, subjects of tree structure design, feature selection at each internal node, and decision and search strategies are discussed.

Multiclassifier system with hybrid learning applied to the control of bioprosthetic hand.

PubMed

Kurzynski, Marek; Krysmann, Maciej; Trajdos, Pawel; Wolczowski, Andrzej

2016-02-01

In this paper the problem of recognition of the intended hand movements for the control of bio-prosthetic hand is addressed. The proposed method is based on recognition of electromiographic (EMG) and mechanomiographic (MMG) biosignals using a multiclassifier system (MCS) working in a two-level structure with a dynamic ensemble selection (DES) scheme and original concepts of competence function. Additionally, feedback information coming from bioprosthesis sensors on the correct/incorrect classification is applied to the adjustment of the combining mechanism during MCS operation through adaptive tuning competences of base classifiers depending on their decisions. Three MCS systems operating in decision tree structure and with different tuning algorithms are developed. In the MCS1 system, competence is uniformly allocated to each class belonging to the group indicated by the feedback signal. In the MCS2 system, the modification of competence depends on the node of decision tree at which a correct/incorrect classification is made. In the MCS3 system, the randomized model of classifier and the concept of cross-competence are used in the tuning procedure. Experimental investigations on the real data and computer-simulated procedure of generating feedback signals are performed. In these investigations classification accuracy of the MCS systems developed is compared and furthermore, the MCS systems are evaluated with respect to the effectiveness of the procedure of tuning competence. The results obtained indicate that modification of competence of base classifiers during the working phase essentially improves performance of the MCS system and that this improvement depends on the MCS system and tuning method used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification model of Hyperion image base on SAM combined decision tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhenghai; Hu, Guangdao; Zhou, YongZhang; Liu, Xin

2009-10-01

Monitoring the Earth using imaging spectrometers has necessitated more accurate analyses and new applications to remote sensing. A very high dimensional input space requires an exponentially large amount of data to adequately and reliably represent the classes in that space. On the other hand, with increase in the input dimensionality the hypothesis space grows exponentially, which makes the classification performance highly unreliable. Traditional classification algorithms Classification of hyperspectral images is challenging. New algorithms have to be developed for hyperspectral data classification. The Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) is a physically-based spectral classification that uses an ndimensional angle to match pixels to reference spectra. The algorithm determines the spectral similarity between two spectra by calculating the angle between the spectra, treating them as vectors in a space with dimensionality equal to the number of bands. The key and difficulty is that we should artificial defining the threshold of SAM. The classification precision depends on the rationality of the threshold of SAM. In order to resolve this problem, this paper proposes a new automatic classification model of remote sensing image using SAM combined with decision tree. It can automatic choose the appropriate threshold of SAM and improve the classify precision of SAM base on the analyze of field spectrum. The test area located in Heqing Yunnan was imaged by EO_1 Hyperion imaging spectrometer using 224 bands in visual and near infrared. The area included limestone areas, rock fields, soil and forests. The area was classified into four different vegetation and soil types. The results show that this method choose the appropriate threshold of SAM and eliminates the disturbance and influence of unwanted objects effectively, so as to improve the classification precision. Compared with the likelihood classification by field survey data, the classification precision of this model heightens 9.9%.

Classification techniques on computerized systems to predict and/or to detect Apnea: A systematic review.

PubMed

Pombo, Nuno; Garcia, Nuno; Bousson, Kouamana

2017-03-01

Sleep apnea syndrome (SAS), which can significantly decrease the quality of life is associated with a major risk factor of health implications such as increased cardiovascular disease, sudden death, depression, irritability, hypertension, and learning difficulties. Thus, it is relevant and timely to present a systematic review describing significant applications in the framework of computational intelligence-based SAS, including its performance, beneficial and challenging effects, and modeling for the decision-making on multiple scenarios. This study aims to systematically review the literature on systems for the detection and/or prediction of apnea events using a classification model. Forty-five included studies revealed a combination of classification techniques for the diagnosis of apnea, such as threshold-based (14.75%) and machine learning (ML) models (85.25%). In addition, the ML models, were clustered in a mind map, include neural networks (44.26%), regression (4.91%), instance-based (11.47%), Bayesian algorithms (1.63%), reinforcement learning (4.91%), dimensionality reduction (8.19%), ensemble learning (6.55%), and decision trees (3.27%). A classification model should provide an auto-adaptive and no external-human action dependency. In addition, the accuracy of the classification models is related with the effective features selection. New high-quality studies based on randomized controlled trials and validation of models using a large and multiple sample of data are recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gbm.auto: A software tool to simplify spatial modelling and Marine Protected Area planning

PubMed Central

Officer, Rick; Clarke, Maurice; Reid, David G.; Brophy, Deirdre

2017-01-01

Boosted Regression Trees. Excellent for data-poor spatial management but hard to use Marine resource managers and scientists often advocate spatial approaches to manage data-poor species. Existing spatial prediction and management techniques are either insufficiently robust, struggle with sparse input data, or make suboptimal use of multiple explanatory variables. Boosted Regression Trees feature excellent performance and are well suited to modelling the distribution of data-limited species, but are extremely complicated and time-consuming to learn and use, hindering access for a wide potential user base and therefore limiting uptake and usage. BRTs automated and simplified for accessible general use with rich feature set We have built a software suite in R which integrates pre-existing functions with new tailor-made functions to automate the processing and predictive mapping of species abundance data: by automating and greatly simplifying Boosted Regression Tree spatial modelling, the gbm.auto R package suite makes this powerful statistical modelling technique more accessible to potential users in the ecological and modelling communities. The package and its documentation allow the user to generate maps of predicted abundance, visualise the representativeness of those abundance maps and to plot the relative influence of explanatory variables and their relationship to the response variables. Databases of the processed model objects and a report explaining all the steps taken within the model are also generated. The package includes a previously unavailable Decision Support Tool which combines estimated escapement biomass (the percentage of an exploited population which must be retained each year to conserve it) with the predicted abundance maps to generate maps showing the location and size of habitat that should be protected to conserve the target stocks (candidate MPAs), based on stakeholder priorities, such as the minimisation of fishing effort displacement. Gbm.auto for management in various settings By bridging the gap between advanced statistical methods for species distribution modelling and conservation science, management and policy, these tools can allow improved spatial abundance predictions, and therefore better management, decision-making, and conservation. Although this package was built to support spatial management of a data-limited marine elasmobranch fishery, it should be equally applicable to spatial abundance modelling, area protection, and stakeholder engagement in various scenarios. PMID:29216310

Microscopic saw mark analysis: an empirical approach.

PubMed

Love, Jennifer C; Derrick, Sharon M; Wiersema, Jason M; Peters, Charles

2015-01-01

Microscopic saw mark analysis is a well published and generally accepted qualitative analytical method. However, little research has focused on identifying and mitigating potential sources of error associated with the method. The presented study proposes the use of classification trees and random forest classifiers as an optimal, statistically sound approach to mitigate the potential for error of variability and outcome error in microscopic saw mark analysis. The statistical model was applied to 58 experimental saw marks created with four types of saws. The saw marks were made in fresh human femurs obtained through anatomical gift and were analyzed using a Keyence digital microscope. The statistical approach weighed the variables based on discriminatory value and produced decision trees with an associated outcome error rate of 8.62-17.82%. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

A novel scene management technology for complex virtual battlefield environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Changchong; Jiang, Libing; Tang, Bo; Tang, Xiaoan

2018-04-01

The efficient scene management of virtual environment is an important research content of computer real-time visualization, which has a decisive influence on the efficiency of drawing. However, Traditional scene management methods do not suitable for complex virtual battlefield environments, this paper combines the advantages of traditional scene graph technology and spatial data structure method, using the idea of management and rendering separation, a loose object-oriented scene graph structure is established to manage the entity model data in the scene, and the performance-based quad-tree structure is created for traversing and rendering. In addition, the collaborative update relationship between the above two structural trees is designed to achieve efficient scene management. Compared with the previous scene management method, this method is more efficient and meets the needs of real-time visualization.

Installation Restoration Program. Phase I. Records Search, Buckley Air National Guard Base, Aurora, Colorado.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-01

Buffalo and Gramma grasses. The only native trees are plains cottonwood and some willows. Many introduced species exist at Buckley, including Bluegrass...irrigation purposes. The upper sec- tion of the aquifer is unsaturated. - No rare or endangered species of plants or wildlife are found at Buckley...was then made, based upon all of the above information and utilizing the decision tree shown in Figure 4.1, concerning the existence of potential for

An evaluation of consensus techniques for diagnostic interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauter, Jake N.; LaBarre, Victoria M.; Furst, Jacob D.; Raicu, Daniela S.

2018-02-01

Learning diagnostic labels from image content has been the standard in computer-aided diagnosis. Most computer-aided diagnosis systems use low-level image features extracted directly from image content to train and test machine learning classifiers for diagnostic label prediction. When the ground truth for the diagnostic labels is not available, reference truth is generated from the experts diagnostic interpretations of the image/region of interest. More specifically, when the label is uncertain, e.g. when multiple experts label an image and their interpretations are different, techniques to handle the label variability are necessary. In this paper, we compare three consensus techniques that are typically used to encode the variability in the experts labeling of the medical data: mean, median and mode, and their effects on simple classifiers that can handle deterministic labels (decision trees) and probabilistic vectors of labels (belief decision trees). Given that the NIH/NCI Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) data provides interpretations for lung nodules by up to four radiologists, we leverage the LIDC data to evaluate and compare these consensus approaches when creating computer-aided diagnosis systems for lung nodules. First, low-level image features of nodules are extracted and paired with their radiologists semantic ratings (1= most likely benign, , 5 = most likely malignant); second, machine learning multi-class classifiers that handle deterministic labels (decision trees) and probabilistic vectors of labels (belief decision trees) are built to predict the lung nodules semantic ratings. We show that the mean-based consensus generates the most robust classi- fier overall when compared to the median- and mode-based consensus. Lastly, the results of this study show that, when building CAD systems with uncertain diagnostic interpretation, it is important to evaluate different strategies for encoding and predicting the diagnostic label.

Synchrony of forest responses to climate from the aspect of tree mortality in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Piao, D.; Choi, G. M.; Gang, H. U.

2016-12-01

Mortality is a key process in forest-stand dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly in relation to climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the patterns of maximum stem number (MSN) per ha over dominant tree height from 5-year remeasurements of the permanent sample plots for temperate forests [Red pine (Pinus densiflora), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis), and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica)] using Sterba's theory and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, (ii) develop a stand-level mortality (self-thinning) model using the MSN curve, and (iii) assess the impact of temperature on tree mortality in semi-variogram and linear regression models. The MSN curve represents the upper range of observed stem numbers per ha. The mortality model and validation statistic reveal significant differences between the observed data and the model predictions (R2 = 0.55-0.81), and no obvious dependencies or patterns that indicate systematic trends between the residuals and the independent variable. However, spatial autocorrelation was detected from residuals of coniferous species (Red pine, Japanese larch and Korean pine), but not of oak species (Chinese cork oak and Mongolian oak). Based on linear regression from residuals, we found that the mortality of coniferous forests tended to increase when the annual mean temperature increased. Conversely, oak mortality nonsignificantly decreased with increasing temperature. These findings indicate that enhanced tree mortality due to rising temperatures in response to climate change is possible, especially in coniferous forests, and are expected to contribute to policy decisions to support and forest management practices.

Using Boosting Decision Trees in Gravitational Wave Searches triggered by Gamma-ray Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuraw, Sarah; LIGO Collaboration

2015-04-01

The search for gravitational wave bursts requires the ability to distinguish weak signals from background detector noise. Gravitational wave bursts are characterized by their transient nature, making them particularly difficult to detect as they are similar to non-Gaussian noise fluctuations in the detector. The Boosted Decision Tree method is a powerful machine learning algorithm which uses Multivariate Analysis techniques to explore high-dimensional data sets in order to distinguish between gravitational wave signal and background detector noise. It does so by training with known noise events and simulated gravitational wave events. The method is tested using waveform models and compared with the performance of the standard gravitational wave burst search pipeline for Gamma-ray Bursts. It is shown that the method is able to effectively distinguish between signal and background events under a variety of conditions and over multiple Gamma-ray Burst events. This example demonstrates the usefulness and robustness of the Boosted Decision Tree and Multivariate Analysis techniques as a detection method for gravitational wave bursts. LIGO, UMass, PREP, NEGAP.

Predication of different stages of Alzheimer's disease using neighborhood component analysis and ensemble decision tree.

PubMed

Jin, Mingwu; Deng, Weishu

2018-05-15

There is a spectrum of the progression from healthy control (HC) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) without conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD), to MCI with conversion to AD (cMCI), and to AD. This study aims to predict the different disease stages using brain structural information provided by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. The neighborhood component analysis (NCA) is applied to select most powerful features for prediction. The ensemble decision tree classifier is built to predict which group the subject belongs to. The best features and model parameters are determined by cross validation of the training data. Our results show that 16 out of a total of 429 features were selected by NCA using 240 training subjects, including MMSE score and structural measures in memory-related regions. The boosting tree model with NCA features can achieve prediction accuracy of 56.25% on 160 test subjects. Principal component analysis (PCA) and sequential feature selection (SFS) are used for feature selection, while support vector machine (SVM) is used for classification. The boosting tree model with NCA features outperforms all other combinations of feature selection and classification methods. The results suggest that NCA be a better feature selection strategy than PCA and SFS for the data used in this study. Ensemble tree classifier with boosting is more powerful than SVM to predict the subject group. However, more advanced feature selection and classification methods or additional measures besides structural MRI may be needed to improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Speech/Music Classification With a Hierarchical Oblique Decision Tree

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

REAL-TIME SPEECH/ MUSIC CLASSIFICATION WITH A HIERARCHICAL OBLIQUE DECISION TREE Jun Wang, Qiong Wu, Haojiang Deng, Qin Yan Institute of Acoustics...time speech/ music classification with a hierarchical oblique decision tree. A set of discrimination features in frequency domain are selected...handle signals without discrimination and can not work properly in the existence of multimedia signals. This paper proposes a real-time speech/ music

[Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

PubMed

Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

2017-08-15

Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Pruning a decision tree for selecting computer-related assistive devices for people with disabilities.

PubMed

Chi, Chia-Fen; Tseng, Li-Kai; Jang, Yuh

2012-07-01

Many disabled individuals lack extensive knowledge about assistive technology, which could help them use computers. In 1997, Denis Anson developed a decision tree of 49 evaluative questions designed to evaluate the functional capabilities of the disabled user and choose an appropriate combination of assistive devices, from a selection of 26, that enable the individual to use a computer. In general, occupational therapists guide the disabled users through this process. They often have to go over repetitive questions in order to find an appropriate device. A disabled user may require an alphanumeric entry device, a pointing device, an output device, a performance enhancement device, or some combination of these. Therefore, the current research eliminates redundant questions and divides Anson's decision tree into multiple independent subtrees to meet the actual demand of computer users with disabilities. The modified decision tree was tested by six disabled users to prove it can determine a complete set of assistive devices with a smaller number of evaluative questions. The means to insert new categories of computer-related assistive devices was included to ensure the decision tree can be expanded and updated. The current decision tree can help the disabled users and assistive technology practitioners to find appropriate computer-related assistive devices that meet with clients' individual needs in an efficient manner.

Bridging process-based and empirical approaches to modeling tree growth

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; Annikki Makela; Annikki Makela

2005-01-01

The gulf between process-based and empirical approaches to modeling tree growth may be bridged, in part, by the use of a common model. To this end, we have formulated a process-based model of tree growth that can be fitted and applied in an empirical mode. The growth model is grounded in pipe model theory and an optimal control model of crown development. Together, the...

Urban tree growth modeling

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

2012-01-01

This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

Decision Tree Repository and Rule Set Based Mingjiang River Estuarine Wetlands Classifaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, W.; Li, X.; Xiao, W.

2018-05-01

The increasing urbanization and industrialization have led to wetland losses in estuarine area of Mingjiang River over past three decades. There has been increasing attention given to produce wetland inventories using remote sensing and GIS technology. Due to inconsistency training site and training sample, traditionally pixel-based image classification methods can't achieve a comparable result within different organizations. Meanwhile, object-oriented image classification technique shows grate potential to solve this problem and Landsat moderate resolution remote sensing images are widely used to fulfill this requirement. Firstly, the standardized atmospheric correct, spectrally high fidelity texture feature enhancement was conducted before implementing the object-oriented wetland classification method in eCognition. Secondly, we performed the multi-scale segmentation procedure, taking the scale, hue, shape, compactness and smoothness of the image into account to get the appropriate parameters, using the top and down region merge algorithm from single pixel level, the optimal texture segmentation scale for different types of features is confirmed. Then, the segmented object is used as the classification unit to calculate the spectral information such as Mean value, Maximum value, Minimum value, Brightness value and the Normalized value. The Area, length, Tightness and the Shape rule of the image object Spatial features and texture features such as Mean, Variance and Entropy of image objects are used as classification features of training samples. Based on the reference images and the sampling points of on-the-spot investigation, typical training samples are selected uniformly and randomly for each type of ground objects. The spectral, texture and spatial characteristics of each type of feature in each feature layer corresponding to the range of values are used to create the decision tree repository. Finally, with the help of high resolution reference images, the random sampling method is used to conduct the field investigation, achieve an overall accuracy of 90.31 %, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.88. The classification method based on decision tree threshold values and rule set developed by the repository, outperforms the results obtained from the traditional methodology. Our decision tree repository and rule set based object-oriented classification technique was an effective method for producing comparable and consistency wetlands data set.

Comparative Issues and Methods in Organizational Diagnosis. Report II. The Decision Tree Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

organizational diagnosis . The advantages and disadvantages of the decision-tree approach generally, and in this study specifically, are examined. A pre-test, using a civilian sample of 174 work groups with Survey of Organizations data, was conducted to assess various decision-tree classification criteria, in terms of their similarity to the distance function used by Bowers and Hausser (1977). The results suggested the use of a large developmental sample, which should result in more distinctly defined boundary lines between classification profiles. Also, the decision matrix

Application of a hybrid association rules/decision tree model for drought monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourani, Vahid; Molajou, Amir

2017-12-01

The previous researches have shown that the incorporation of the oceanic-atmospheric climate phenomena such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) into hydro-climatic models could provide important predictive information about hydro-climatic variability. In this paper, the hybrid application of two data mining techniques (decision tree and association rules) was offered to discover affiliation between drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations (located in Iran) and de-trend SSTs of the Black, Mediterranean and Red Seas. Two major steps of the proposed model were the classification of de-trend SST data and selecting the most effective groups and extracting hidden information involved in the data. The techniques of decision tree which can identify the good traits from a data set for the classification purpose were used for classification and selecting the most effective groups and association rules were employed to extract the hidden predictive information from the large observed data. To examine the accuracy of the rules, confidence and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) measures were calculated and compared for different considering lag times. The computed measures confirm reliable performance of the proposed hybrid data mining method to forecast drought and the results show a relative correlation between the Mediterranean, Black and Red Sea de-trend SSTs and drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations so that the confidence between the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and the de-trend SST of seas is higher than 70 and 80% respectively for Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations.

Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oza, Nikunj

2012-03-01

A supervised learning task involves constructing a mapping from input data (normally described by several features) to the appropriate outputs. A set of training examples— examples with known output values—is used by a learning algorithm to generate a model. This model is intended to approximate the mapping between the inputs and outputs. This model can be used to generate predicted outputs for inputs that have not been seen before. Within supervised learning, one type of task is a classification learning task, in which each output is one or more classes to which the input belongs. For example, we may have data consisting of observations of sunspots. In a classification learning task, our goal may be to learn to classify sunspots into one of several types. Each example may correspond to one candidate sunspot with various measurements or just an image. A learning algorithm would use the supplied examples to generate a model that approximates the mapping between each supplied set of measurements and the type of sunspot. This model can then be used to classify previously unseen sunspots based on the candidate’s measurements. The generalization performance of a learned model (how closely the target outputs and the model’s predicted outputs agree for patterns that have not been presented to the learning algorithm) would provide an indication of how well the model has learned the desired mapping. More formally, a classification learning algorithm L takes a training set T as its input. The training set consists of |T| examples or instances. It is assumed that there is a probability distribution D from which all training examples are drawn independently—that is, all the training examples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). The ith training example is of the form (x_i, y_i), where x_i is a vector of values of several features and y_i represents the class to be predicted.* In the sunspot classification example given above, each training example would represent one sunspot’s classification (y_i) and the corresponding set of measurements (x_i). The output of a supervised learning algorithm is a model h that approximates the unknown mapping from the inputs to the outputs. In our example, h would map from the sunspot measurements to the type of sunspot. We may have a test set S—a set of examples not used in training that we use to test how well the model h predicts the outputs on new examples. Just as with the examples in T, the examples in S are assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws from the distribution D. We measure the error of h on the test set as the proportion of test cases that h misclassifies: 1/|S| Sigma(x,y union S)[I(h(x)!= y)] where I(v) is the indicator function—it returns 1 if v is true and 0 otherwise. In our sunspot classification example, we would identify additional examples of sunspots that were not used in generating the model, and use these to determine how accurate the model is—the fraction of the test samples that the model classifies correctly. An example of a classification model is the decision tree shown in Figure 23.1. We will discuss the decision tree learning algorithm in more detail later—for now, we assume that, given a training set with examples of sunspots, this decision tree is derived. This can be used to classify previously unseen examples of sunpots. For example, if a new sunspot’s inputs indicate that its "Group Length" is in the range 10-15, then the decision tree would classify the sunspot as being of type “E,” whereas if the "Group Length" is "NULL," the "Magnetic Type" is "bipolar," and the "Penumbra" is "rudimentary," then it would be classified as type "C." In this chapter, we will add to the above description of classification problems. We will discuss decision trees and several other classification models. In particular, we will discuss the learning algorithms that generate these classification models, how to use them to classify new examples, and the strengths and weaknesses of these models. We will end with pointers to further reading on classification methods applied to astronomy data.

Predicting Tillage Patterns in the Tiffin River Watershed Using Remote Sensing Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, C.; McCarty, J. L.; Dean, D. B.; Mann, B. F.

2012-12-01

Previous research in tillage mapping has focused primarily on utilizing low to no-cost, moderate (30 m to 15 m) resolution satellite data. Successful data processing techniques published in the scientific literature have focused on extracting and/or classifying tillage patterns through manipulation of spectral bands. For instance, Daughtry et al. (2005) evaluated several spectral indices for crop residue cover using satellite multispectral and hyperspectral data and to categorize soil tillage intensity in agricultural fields. A weak to moderate relationship between Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) indices and crop residue cover was found; similar results were reported in Minnesota. Building on the findings from the scientific literature and previous work done by MTRI in the heavily agricultural Tiffin watershed of northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan, a decision tree classifier approach (also referred to as a classification tree) was used, linking several satellite data to on-the-ground tillage information in order to boost classification results. This approach included five tillage indices and derived products. A decision tree methodology enabled the development of statistically optimized (i.e., minimizing misclassification rates) classification algorithms at various desired time steps: monthly, seasonally, and annual over the 2006-2010 time period. Due to their flexibility, processing speed, and availability within all major remote sensing and statistical software packages, decision trees can ingest several data inputs from multiple sensors and satellite products, selecting only the bands, band ratios, indices, and products that further reduce misclassification errors. The project team created crop-specific tillage pattern classification trees whereby a training data set (~ 50% of available ground data) was created for production of the actual decision tree and a validation data set was set aside (~ 50% of available ground data) in order to assess the accuracy of the classification. A seasonal time step was used, optimizing a decision tree based on seasonal ground data for tillage patterns and satellite data and products for years 2006 through 2010. Annual crop type maps derived by the project team and the USDA Cropland Data Layer project was used an input to understand locations of corn, soybeans, wheat, etc. on a yearly basis. As previously stated, the robustness of the decision tree approach is the ability to implement various satellite data and products across temporal, spectral, and spatial resolutions, thereby improving the resulting classification and providing a reliable method that is not sensor-dependent. Tillage pattern classification from satellite imagery is not a simple task and has proven a challenge to previous researchers investigating this remote sensing topic. The team's decision tree method produced a practical, usable output within a focused project time period. Daughtry, C.S.T., Hunt Jr., E.R., Doraiswamy, P.C., McMurtrey III, J.E. 2005. Remote sensing the spatial distribution of crop residues. Agron. J. 97, 864-871.

Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, David; Ritsche, Michael; Elyea, Karen; Shelton, Steve; Schramm, Kevin

2000-09-01

This paper illustrates a key lesson related to most uses of long-range climate forecast information, namely that effective weather-related decision-making requires understanding and integration of weather information with other, often complex factors. Northern Illinois University's heating plant manager and staff meteorologist, along with a group of meteorology students, worked together to assess different types of available information that could be used in an autumn natural gas purchasing decision. Weather information assessed included the impact of ENSO events on winters in northern Illinois and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) long-range climate outlooks. Non-weather factors, such as the cost and available supplies of natural gas prior to the heating season, contribute to the complexity of the natural gas purchase decision. A decision tree was developed and it incorporated three parts: (a) natural gas supply levels, (b) the CPC long-lead climate outlooks for the region, and (c) an ENSO model developed for DeKalb. The results were used to decide in autumn whether to lock in a price or ride the market each winter. The decision tree was tested for the period 1995-99, and returned a cost-effective decision in three of the four winters.

In vitro fertilization (IVF) versus gonadotropins followed by IVF as treatment for primary infertility: a cost-based decision analysis.

PubMed

Kansal-Kalra, Suleena; Milad, Magdy P; Grobman, William A

2005-09-01

To compare the economic consequences of proceeding directly to IVF to those of proceeding with gonadotropins followed by IVF in patients <35 years of age with unexplained infertility. A decision-tree model. The model incorporated the cost and success of each infertility regimen as well as the pregnancy-associated costs of singleton or multiple gestations and the risk and cost of cerebral palsy. Cost per live birth. Both treatment arms resulted in a >80% chance of birth. The gonadotropin arm was over four times more likely to result in a high-order multiple pregnancy (HOMP). Despite this, when the base case estimates were utilized, immediate IVF emerged as more costly per live birth. In sensitivity analysis, immediate IVF became less costly per live birth when IVF was more likely to achieve birth (55.1%) or cheaper (11,432 dollars) than our base case assumptions. After considering the risk and cost of HOMP, immediate IVF is more costly per live birth than a trial of gonadotropins prior to IVF.

Identification of Migratory Insects from their Physical Features using a Decision-Tree Support Vector Machine and its Application to Radar Entomology.

PubMed

Hu, Cheng; Kong, Shaoyang; Wang, Rui; Long, Teng; Fu, Xiaowei

2018-04-03

Migration is a key process in the population dynamics of numerous insect species, including many that are pests or vectors of disease. Identification of insect migrants is critically important to studies of insect migration. Radar is an effective means of monitoring nocturnal insect migrants. However, species identification of migrating insects is often unachievable with current radar technology. Special-purpose entomological radar can measure radar cross-sections (RCSs) from which the insect mass, wingbeat frequency and body length-to-width ratio (a measure of morphological form) can be estimated. These features may be valuable for species identification. This paper explores the identification of insect migrants based on the mass, wingbeat frequency and length-to-width ratio, and body length is also introduced to assess the benefit of adding another variable. A total of 23 species of migratory insects captured by a searchlight trap are used to develop a classification model based on decision-tree support vector machine method. The results reveal that the identification accuracy exceeds 80% for all species if the mass, wingbeat frequency and length-to-width ratio are utilized, and the addition of body length is shown to further increase accuracy. It is also shown that improving the precision of the measurements leads to increased identification accuracy.

Identifying Important Attributes for Prognostic Prediction in Traumatic Brain Injury Patients. A Hybrid Method of Decision Tree and Neural Network.

PubMed

Pourahmad, Saeedeh; Hafizi-Rastani, Iman; Khalili, Hosseinali; Paydar, Shahram

2016-10-17

Generally, traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients do not have a stable condition, particularly after the first week of TBI. Hence, indicating the attributes in prognosis through a prediction model is of utmost importance since it helps caregivers with treatment-decision options, or prepares the relatives for the most-likely outcome. This study attempted to determine and order the attributes in prognostic prediction in TBI patients, based on early clinical findings. A hybrid method was employed, which combines a decision tree (DT) and an artificial neural network (ANN) in order to improve the modeling process. The DT approach was applied as the initial analysis of the network architecture to increase accuracy in prediction. Afterwards, the ANN structure was mapped from the initial DT based on a part of the data. Subsequently, the designed network was trained and validated by the remaining data. 5-fold cross-validation method was applied to train the network. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy rate were utilized as performance measures. The important attributes were then determined from the trained network using two methods: change of mean squared error (MSE), and sensitivity analysis (SA). The hybrid method offered better results compared to the DT method. The accuracy rate of 86.3 % vs. 82.2 %, sensitivity value of 55.1 % vs. 47.6 %, specificity value of 93.6 % vs. 91.1 %, and the area under the ROC curve of 0.705 vs. 0.695 were achieved for the hybrid method and DT, respectively. However, the attributes' order by DT method was more consistent with the clinical literature. The combination of different modeling methods can enhance their performance. However, it may create some complexities in computations and interpretations. The outcome of the present study could deliver some useful hints in prognostic prediction on the basis of early clinical findings for TBI patients.

Promotion Assistance Tool for Mobile Phone Users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intraprasert, P.; Jatikul, N.; Chantrapornchai, C.

In this paper, we propose an application tool to help analyze the usage of a mobile phone for a typical user. From the past usage, the tool can analyze the promotion that is suitable for the user which may save the total expense. The application consists of both client and server side. On the server side, the information for each promotion package for a phone operator is stored as well as the usage database for each client. The client side is a user interface for both phone operators and users to enter their information. The analysis engine are based on KNN, ANN, decision tree and Naïve Bayes models. For comparison, it is shown that KNN and decision outperforms the others.

Comparison of neurofuzzy logic and decision trees in discovering knowledge from experimental data of an immediate release tablet formulation.

PubMed

Shao, Q; Rowe, R C; York, P

2007-06-01

Understanding of the cause-effect relationships between formulation ingredients, process conditions and product properties is essential for developing a quality product. However, the formulation knowledge is often hidden in experimental data and not easily interpretable. This study compares neurofuzzy logic and decision tree approaches in discovering hidden knowledge from an immediate release tablet formulation database relating formulation ingredients (silica aerogel, magnesium stearate, microcrystalline cellulose and sodium carboxymethylcellulose) and process variables (dwell time and compression force) to tablet properties (tensile strength, disintegration time, friability, capping and drug dissolution at various time intervals). Both approaches successfully generated useful knowledge in the form of either "if then" rules or decision trees. Although different strategies are employed by the two approaches in generating rules/trees, similar knowledge was discovered in most cases. However, as decision trees are not able to deal with continuous dependent variables, data discretisation procedures are generally required.

Designing Predictive Models for Beta-Lactam Allergy Using the Drug Allergy and Hypersensitivity Database.

PubMed

Chiriac, Anca Mirela; Wang, Youna; Schrijvers, Rik; Bousquet, Philippe Jean; Mura, Thibault; Molinari, Nicolas; Demoly, Pascal

Beta-lactam antibiotics represent the main cause of allergic reactions to drugs, inducing both immediate and nonimmediate allergies. The diagnosis is well established, usually based on skin tests and drug provocation tests, but cumbersome. To design predictive models for the diagnosis of beta-lactam allergy, based on the clinical history of patients with suspicions of allergic reactions to beta-lactams. The study included a retrospective phase, in which records of patients explored for a suspicion of beta-lactam allergy (in the Allergy Unit of the University Hospital of Montpellier between September 1996 and September 2012) were used to construct predictive models based on a logistic regression and decision tree method; a prospective phase, in which we performed an external validation of the chosen models in patients with suspicion of beta-lactam allergy recruited from 3 allergy centers (Montpellier, Nîmes, Narbonne) between March and November 2013. Data related to clinical history and allergy evaluation results were retrieved and analyzed. The retrospective and prospective phases included 1991 and 200 patients, respectively, with a different prevalence of confirmed beta-lactam allergy (23.6% vs 31%, P = .02). For the logistic regression method, performances of the models were similar in both samples: sensitivity was 51% (vs 60%), specificity 75% (vs 80%), positive predictive value 40% (vs 57%), and negative predictive value 83% (vs 82%). The decision tree method reached a sensitivity of 29.5% (vs 43.5%), specificity of 96.4% (vs 94.9%), positive predictive value of 71.6% (vs 79.4%), and negative predictive value of 81.6% (vs 81.3%). Two different independent methods using clinical history predictors were unable to accurately predict beta-lactam allergy and replace a conventional allergy evaluation for suspected beta-lactam allergy. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing and validating predictive decision tree models from mining chemical structural fingerprints and high-throughput screening data in PubChem.

PubMed

Han, Lianyi; Wang, Yanli; Bryant, Stephen H

2008-09-25

Recent advances in high-throughput screening (HTS) techniques and readily available compound libraries generated using combinatorial chemistry or derived from natural products enable the testing of millions of compounds in a matter of days. Due to the amount of information produced by HTS assays, it is a very challenging task to mine the HTS data for potential interest in drug development research. Computational approaches for the analysis of HTS results face great challenges due to the large quantity of information and significant amounts of erroneous data produced. In this study, Decision Trees (DT) based models were developed to discriminate compound bioactivities by using their chemical structure fingerprints provided in the PubChem system http://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. The DT models were examined for filtering biological activity data contained in four assays deposited in the PubChem Bioassay Database including assays tested for 5HT1a agonists, antagonists, and HIV-1 RT-RNase H inhibitors. The 10-fold Cross Validation (CV) sensitivity, specificity and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) for the models are 57.2 approximately 80.5%, 97.3 approximately 99.0%, 0.4 approximately 0.5 respectively. A further evaluation was also performed for DT models built for two independent bioassays, where inhibitors for the same HIV RNase target were screened using different compound libraries, this experiment yields enrichment factor of 4.4 and 9.7. Our results suggest that the designed DT models can be used as a virtual screening technique as well as a complement to traditional approaches for hits selection.

Coupled ecological-social dynamics in a forested landscape: spatial interactions and information flow.

PubMed

Satake, Akiko; Leslie, Heather M; Iwasa, Yoh; Levin, Simon A

2007-06-21

We develop an agent-based model for forest harvesting to study how interactions between neighboring land parcels and the degree of information flow among landowners influence harvesting patterns. We assume a forest is composed of a number of land parcels that are individually managed. Each parcel is either mature forested, just-harvested, or immature forested. The state transition of each parcel is described by a Markov chain that incorporates the successional dynamics of the forest ecosystem and landowners' decisions about harvesting. Landowners decide to cut trees based on the expected discounted utility of forested vs. harvested land. One landowner's decision to cut trees is assumed to cause the degradation of ecosystem services on the downstream forested parcels. We investigated two different scenarios: in a strongly-connected society, landowners are familiar with each other and have full information regarding the behavior of other landowners. In a weakly-connected society, landowners do not communicate and therefore need to make subjective predictions about the behavior of others without adequate information. Regardless of the type of society, we observed that the spatial interaction between management units caused a chain reaction of tree harvesting in the neighborhood even when healthy forested land provided greater utility than harvested land. The harvest rate was higher in a weakly-connected society than that in a strongly-connected society. If landowners employed a long-term perspective, the harvest rate declined, and a more robust forested landscape emerged. Our results highlight the importance of institutional arrangements that encourage a long-term perspective and increased information flow among landowners in order to achieve successful forest management.

The Decision Tree for Teaching Management of Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knaggs, Sara J.; And Others

1974-01-01

A 'decision tree' consists of an outline of the patient's symptoms and a logic for decision and action. It is felt that this approach to the decisionmaking process better facilitates each learner's application of his own level of knowledge and skills. (Author)

Comparison of rule induction, decision trees and formal concept analysis approaches for classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotelnikov, E. V.; Milov, V. R.

2018-05-01

Rule-based learning algorithms have higher transparency and easiness to interpret in comparison with neural networks and deep learning algorithms. These properties make it possible to effectively use such algorithms to solve descriptive tasks of data mining. The choice of an algorithm depends also on its ability to solve predictive tasks. The article compares the quality of the solution of the problems with binary and multiclass classification based on the experiments with six datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The authors investigate three algorithms: Ripper (rule induction), C4.5 (decision trees), In-Close (formal concept analysis). The results of the experiments show that In-Close demonstrates the best quality of classification in comparison with Ripper and C4.5, however the latter two generate more compact rule sets.

Binary Classification using Decision Tree based Genetic Programming and Its Application to Analysis of Bio-mass Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Cuong; Pham, Tuan D.

2010-01-01

In machine learning, pattern recognition may be the most popular task. "Similar" patterns identification is also very important in biology because first, it is useful for prediction of patterns associated with disease, for example cancer tissue (normal or tumor); second, similarity or dissimilarity of the kinetic patterns is used to identify coordinately controlled genes or proteins involved in the same regulatory process. Third, similar genes (proteins) share similar functions. In this paper, we present an algorithm which uses genetic programming to create decision tree for binary classification problem. The application of the algorithm was implemented on five real biological databases. Base on the results of comparisons with well-known methods, we see that the algorithm is outstanding in most of cases.

The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2008-01-01

Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

Spatial modeling and classification of corneal shape.

PubMed

Marsolo, Keith; Twa, Michael; Bullimore, Mark A; Parthasarathy, Srinivasan

2007-03-01

One of the most promising applications of data mining is in biomedical data used in patient diagnosis. Any method of data analysis intended to support the clinical decision-making process should meet several criteria: it should capture clinically relevant features, be computationally feasible, and provide easily interpretable results. In an initial study, we examined the feasibility of using Zernike polynomials to represent biomedical instrument data in conjunction with a decision tree classifier to distinguish between the diseased and non-diseased eyes. Here, we provide a comprehensive follow-up to that work, examining a second representation, pseudo-Zernike polynomials, to determine whether they provide any increase in classification accuracy. We compare the fidelity of both methods using residual root-mean-square (rms) error and evaluate accuracy using several classifiers: neural networks, C4.5 decision trees, Voting Feature Intervals, and Naïve Bayes. We also examine the effect of several meta-learning strategies: boosting, bagging, and Random Forests (RFs). We present results comparing accuracy as it relates to dataset and transformation resolution over a larger, more challenging, multi-class dataset. They show that classification accuracy is similar for both data transformations, but differs by classifier. We find that the Zernike polynomials provide better feature representation than the pseudo-Zernikes and that the decision trees yield the best balance of classification accuracy and interpretability.

Using data mining to predict success in a weight loss trial.

PubMed

Batterham, M; Tapsell, L; Charlton, K; O'Shea, J; Thorne, R

2017-08-01

Traditional methods for predicting weight loss success use regression approaches, which make the assumption that the relationships between the independent and dependent (or logit of the dependent) variable are linear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between common demographic and early weight loss variables to predict weight loss success at 12 months without making this assumption. Data mining methods (decision trees, generalised additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines), in addition to logistic regression, were employed to predict: (i) weight loss success (defined as ≥5%) at the end of a 12-month dietary intervention using demographic variables [body mass index (BMI), sex and age]; percentage weight loss at 1 month; and (iii) the difference between actual and predicted weight loss using an energy balance model. The methods were compared by assessing model parsimony and the area under the curve (AUC). The decision tree provided the most clinically useful model and had a good accuracy (AUC 0.720 95% confidence interval = 0.600-0.840). Percentage weight loss at 1 month (≥0.75%) was the strongest predictor for successful weight loss. Within those individuals losing ≥0.75%, individuals with a BMI (≥27 kg m -2 ) were more likely to be successful than those with a BMI between 25 and 27 kg m -2 . Data mining methods can provide a more accurate way of assessing relationships when conventional assumptions are not met. In the present study, a decision tree provided the most parsimonious model. Given that early weight loss cannot be predicted before randomisation, incorporating this information into a post randomisation trial design may give better weight loss results. © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Machine Learning Techniques for Prediction of Early Childhood Obesity.

PubMed

Dugan, T M; Mukhopadhyay, S; Carroll, A; Downs, S

2015-01-01

This paper aims to predict childhood obesity after age two, using only data collected prior to the second birthday by a clinical decision support system called CHICA. Analyses of six different machine learning methods: RandomTree, RandomForest, J48, ID3, Naïve Bayes, and Bayes trained on CHICA data show that an accurate, sensitive model can be created. Of the methods analyzed, the ID3 model trained on the CHICA dataset proved the best overall performance with accuracy of 85% and sensitivity of 89%. Additionally, the ID3 model had a positive predictive value of 84% and a negative predictive value of 88%. The structure of the tree also gives insight into the strongest predictors of future obesity in children. Many of the strongest predictors seen in the ID3 modeling of the CHICA dataset have been independently validated in the literature as correlated with obesity, thereby supporting the validity of the model. This study demonstrated that data from a production clinical decision support system can be used to build an accurate machine learning model to predict obesity in children after age two.

Large unbalanced credit scoring using Lasso-logistic regression ensemble.

PubMed

Wang, Hong; Xu, Qingsong; Zhou, Lifeng

2015-01-01

Recently, various ensemble learning methods with different base classifiers have been proposed for credit scoring problems. However, for various reasons, there has been little research using logistic regression as the base classifier. In this paper, given large unbalanced data, we consider the plausibility of ensemble learning using regularized logistic regression as the base classifier to deal with credit scoring problems. In this research, the data is first balanced and diversified by clustering and bagging algorithms. Then we apply a Lasso-logistic regression learning ensemble to evaluate the credit risks. We show that the proposed algorithm outperforms popular credit scoring models such as decision tree, Lasso-logistic regression and random forests in terms of AUC and F-measure. We also provide two importance measures for the proposed model to identify important variables in the data.

Improved Fuzzy K-Nearest Neighbor Using Modified Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamaluddin; Siringoringo, Rimbun

2017-12-01

Fuzzy k-Nearest Neighbor (FkNN) is one of the most powerful classification methods. The presence of fuzzy concepts in this method successfully improves its performance on almost all classification issues. The main drawbackof FKNN is that it is difficult to determine the parameters. These parameters are the number of neighbors (k) and fuzzy strength (m). Both parameters are very sensitive. This makes it difficult to determine the values of ‘m’ and ‘k’, thus making FKNN difficult to control because no theories or guides can deduce how proper ‘m’ and ‘k’ should be. This study uses Modified Particle Swarm Optimization (MPSO) to determine the best value of ‘k’ and ‘m’. MPSO is focused on the Constriction Factor Method. Constriction Factor Method is an improvement of PSO in order to avoid local circumstances optima. The model proposed in this study was tested on the German Credit Dataset. The test of the data/The data test has been standardized by UCI Machine Learning Repository which is widely applied to classification problems. The application of MPSO to the determination of FKNN parameters is expected to increase the value of classification performance. Based on the experiments that have been done indicating that the model offered in this research results in a better classification performance compared to the Fk-NN model only. The model offered in this study has an accuracy rate of 81%, while. With using Fk-NN model, it has the accuracy of 70%. At the end is done comparison of research model superiority with 2 other classification models;such as Naive Bayes and Decision Tree. This research model has a better performance level, where Naive Bayes has accuracy 75%, and the decision tree model has 70%

Machine learning models for lipophilicity and their domain of applicability.

PubMed

Schroeter, Timon; Schwaighofer, Anton; Mika, Sebastian; Laak, Antonius Ter; Suelzle, Detlev; Ganzer, Ursula; Heinrich, Nikolaus; Müller, Klaus-Robert

2007-01-01

Unfavorable lipophilicity and water solubility cause many drug failures; therefore these properties have to be taken into account early on in lead discovery. Commercial tools for predicting lipophilicity usually have been trained on small and neutral molecules, and are thus often unable to accurately predict in-house data. Using a modern Bayesian machine learning algorithm--a Gaussian process model--this study constructs a log D7 model based on 14,556 drug discovery compounds of Bayer Schering Pharma. Performance is compared with support vector machines, decision trees, ridge regression, and four commercial tools. In a blind test on 7013 new measurements from the last months (including compounds from new projects) 81% were predicted correctly within 1 log unit, compared to only 44% achieved by commercial software. Additional evaluations using public data are presented. We consider error bars for each method (model based error bars, ensemble based, and distance based approaches), and investigate how well they quantify the domain of applicability of each model.

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; William D. Dijak; Jacob Fraser; Wen J. Wang; Brice Hanberry; Hong He; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Context. Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process...

Decision Trees Predicting Tumor Shrinkage for Head and Neck Cancer: Implications for Adaptive Radiotherapy.

PubMed

Surucu, Murat; Shah, Karan K; Mescioglu, Ibrahim; Roeske, John C; Small, William; Choi, Mehee; Emami, Bahman

2016-02-01

To develop decision trees predicting for tumor volume reduction in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer using pretreatment clinical and pathological parameters. Forty-eight patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the nasopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were rescanned at a median dose of 37.8 Gy and replanned to account for anatomical changes. The percentages of gross tumor volume (GTV) change from initial to rescan computed tomography (CT; %GTVΔ) were calculated. Two decision trees were generated to correlate %GTVΔ in primary and nodal volumes with 14 characteristics including age, gender, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), site, human papilloma virus (HPV) status, tumor grade, primary tumor growth pattern (endophytic/exophytic), tumor/nodal/group stages, chemotherapy regimen, and primary, nodal, and total GTV volumes in the initial CT scan. The C4.5 Decision Tree induction algorithm was implemented. The median %GTVΔ for primary, nodal, and total GTVs was 26.8%, 43.0%, and 31.2%, respectively. Type of chemotherapy, age, primary tumor growth pattern, site, KPS, and HPV status were the most predictive parameters for primary %GTVΔ decision tree, whereas for nodal %GTVΔ, KPS, site, age, primary tumor growth pattern, initial primary GTV, and total GTV volumes were predictive. Both decision trees had an accuracy of 88%. There can be significant changes in primary and nodal tumor volumes during the course of H&N chemoradiotherapy. Considering the proposed decision trees, radiation oncologists can select patients predicted to have high %GTVΔ, who would theoretically gain the most benefit from adaptive radiotherapy, in order to better use limited clinical resources. © The Author(s) 2015.

Proposed Clinical Decision Rules to Diagnose Acute Rhinosinusitis Among Adults in Primary Care.

PubMed

Ebell, Mark H; Hansen, Jens Georg

2017-07-01

To reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, we sought to develop a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis. Multivariate analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to develop clinical decision rules for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis, defined using 3 different reference standards (purulent antral puncture fluid or abnormal finding on a computed tomographic (CT) scan; for acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, we used a positive bacterial culture of antral fluid). Signs, symptoms, C-reactive protein (CRP), and reference standard tests were prospectively recorded in 175 Danish patients aged 18 to 65 years seeking care for suspected acute rhinosinusitis. For each reference standard, we developed 2 clinical decision rules: a point score based on a logistic regression model and an algorithm based on a CART model. We identified low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for acute rhinosinusitis or acute bacterial rhinosinusitis for each clinical decision rule. The point scores each had between 5 and 6 predictors, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) between 0.721 and 0.767. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a 16%, 49%, and 73% likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, respectively. CART models had an AUROCC ranging from 0.783 to 0.827. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis of 6%, 31%, and 59% respectively. We have developed a series of clinical decision rules integrating signs, symptoms, and CRP to diagnose acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis with good accuracy. They now require prospective validation and an assessment of their effect on clinical and process outcomes. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Decision Modeling Framework to Minimize Arrival Delays from Ground Delay Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohleji, Nandita

Convective weather and other constraints create uncertainty in air transportation, leading to costly delays. A Ground Delay Program (GDP) is a strategy to mitigate these effects. Systematic decision support can increase GDP efficacy, reduce delays, and minimize direct operating costs. In this study, a decision analysis (DA) model is constructed by combining a decision tree and Bayesian belief network. Through a study of three New York region airports, the DA model demonstrates that larger GDP scopes that include more flights in the program, along with longer lead times that provide stakeholders greater notice of a pending program, trigger the fewest average arrival delays. These findings are demonstrated to result in a savings of up to $1,850 per flight. Furthermore, when convective weather is predicted, forecast weather confidences remain the same level or greater at least 70% of the time, supporting more strategic decision making. The DA model thus enables quantification of uncertainties and insights on causal relationships, providing support for future GDP decisions.

A method of real-time fault diagnosis for power transformers based on vibration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Kaixing; Huang, Hai; Zhou, Jianping; Shen, Yimin; Li, Yujie

2015-11-01

In this paper, a novel probability-based classification model is proposed for real-time fault detection of power transformers. First, the transformer vibration principle is introduced, and two effective feature extraction techniques are presented. Next, the details of the classification model based on support vector machine (SVM) are shown. The model also includes a binary decision tree (BDT) which divides transformers into different classes according to health state. The trained model produces posterior probabilities of membership to each predefined class for a tested vibration sample. During the experiments, the vibrations of transformers under different conditions are acquired, and the corresponding feature vectors are used to train the SVM classifiers. The effectiveness of this model is illustrated experimentally on typical in-service transformers. The consistency between the results of the proposed model and the actual condition of the test transformers indicates that the model can be used as a reliable method for transformer fault detection.

On Parallelism and the Penman Natural Language Generation System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-04-01

TagfiniteA Tagsubject L untag ed Figure 2-2: System network with choosers & realization statements 7 decision . We will give a more detailed account of...2: enter the current system. The chooser of the system is in charge of * selection of features. The chooser is itself a decision tree with certain...organization of a chooser is the same as a decision (discrimination) tree, and each branching point in the tree is defined by Ask operation. For example, in

Exploiting semantic patterns over biomedical knowledge graphs for predicting treatment and causative relations.

PubMed

Bakal, Gokhan; Talari, Preetham; Kakani, Elijah V; Kavuluru, Ramakanth

2018-06-01

Identifying new potential treatment options for medical conditions that cause human disease burden is a central task of biomedical research. Since all candidate drugs cannot be tested with animal and clinical trials, in vitro approaches are first attempted to identify promising candidates. Likewise, identifying different causal relations between biomedical entities is also critical to understand biomedical processes. Generally, natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning are used to predict specific relations between any given pair of entities using the distant supervision approach. To build high accuracy supervised predictive models to predict previously unknown treatment and causative relations between biomedical entities based only on semantic graph pattern features extracted from biomedical knowledge graphs. We used 7000 treats and 2918 causes hand-curated relations from the UMLS Metathesaurus to train and test our models. Our graph pattern features are extracted from simple paths connecting biomedical entities in the SemMedDB graph (based on the well-known SemMedDB database made available by the U.S. National Library of Medicine). Using these graph patterns connecting biomedical entities as features of logistic regression and decision tree models, we computed mean performance measures (precision, recall, F-score) over 100 distinct 80-20% train-test splits of the datasets. For all experiments, we used a positive:negative class imbalance of 1:10 in the test set to model relatively more realistic scenarios. Our models predict treats and causes relations with high F-scores of 99% and 90% respectively. Logistic regression model coefficients also help us identify highly discriminative patterns that have an intuitive interpretation. We are also able to predict some new plausible relations based on false positives that our models scored highly based on our collaborations with two physician co-authors. Finally, our decision tree models are able to retrieve over 50% of treatment relations from a recently created external dataset. We employed semantic graph patterns connecting pairs of candidate biomedical entities in a knowledge graph as features to predict treatment/causative relations between them. We provide what we believe is the first evidence in direct prediction of biomedical relations based on graph features. Our work complements lexical pattern based approaches in that the graph patterns can be used as additional features for weakly supervised relation prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic Features of Common Oral Ulcerative Lesions: An Updated Decision Tree

PubMed Central

Safi, Yaser

2016-01-01

Diagnosis of oral ulcerative lesions might be quite challenging. This narrative review article aims to introduce an updated decision tree for diagnosing oral ulcerative lesions on the basis of their diagnostic features. Various general search engines and specialized databases including PubMed, PubMed Central, Medline Plus, EBSCO, Science Direct, Scopus, Embase, and authenticated textbooks were used to find relevant topics by means of MeSH keywords such as “oral ulcer,” “stomatitis,” and “mouth diseases.” Thereafter, English-language articles published since 1983 to 2015 in both medical and dental journals including reviews, meta-analyses, original papers, and case reports were appraised. Upon compilation of the relevant data, oral ulcerative lesions were categorized into three major groups: acute, chronic, and recurrent ulcers and into five subgroups: solitary acute, multiple acute, solitary chronic, multiple chronic, and solitary/multiple recurrent, based on the number and duration of lesions. In total, 29 entities were organized in the form of a decision tree in order to help clinicians establish a logical diagnosis by stepwise progression. PMID:27781066

Behaviour change in overweight and obese pregnancy: a decision tree to support the development of antenatal lifestyle interventions.

PubMed

Ainscough, Kate M; Lindsay, Karen L; O'Sullivan, Elizabeth J; Gibney, Eileen R; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M

2017-10-01

Antenatal healthy lifestyle interventions are frequently implemented in overweight and obese pregnancy, yet there is inconsistent reporting of the behaviour-change methods and behavioural outcomes. This limits our understanding of how and why such interventions were successful or not. The current paper discusses the application of behaviour-change theories and techniques within complex lifestyle interventions in overweight and obese pregnancy. The authors propose a decision tree to help guide researchers through intervention design, implementation and evaluation. The implications for adopting behaviour-change theories and techniques, and using appropriate guidance when constructing and evaluating interventions in research and clinical practice are also discussed. To enhance the evidence base for successful behaviour-change interventions during pregnancy, adoption of behaviour-change theories and techniques, and use of published guidelines when designing lifestyle interventions are necessary. The proposed decision tree may be a useful guide for researchers working to develop effective behaviour-change interventions in clinical settings. This guide directs researchers towards key literature sources that will be important in each stage of study development.

Comparing ensemble learning methods based on decision tree classifiers for protein fold recognition.

PubMed

Bardsiri, Mahshid Khatibi; Eftekhari, Mahdi

2014-01-01

In this paper, some methods for ensemble learning of protein fold recognition based on a decision tree (DT) are compared and contrasted against each other over three datasets taken from the literature. According to previously reported studies, the features of the datasets are divided into some groups. Then, for each of these groups, three ensemble classifiers, namely, random forest, rotation forest and AdaBoost.M1 are employed. Also, some fusion methods are introduced for combining the ensemble classifiers obtained in the previous step. After this step, three classifiers are produced based on the combination of classifiers of types random forest, rotation forest and AdaBoost.M1. Finally, the three different classifiers achieved are combined to make an overall classifier. Experimental results show that the overall classifier obtained by the genetic algorithm (GA) weighting fusion method, is the best one in comparison to previously applied methods in terms of classification accuracy.

Toward better public health reporting using existing off the shelf approaches: A comparison of alternative cancer detection approaches using plaintext medical data and non-dictionary based feature selection.

PubMed

Kasthurirathne, Suranga N; Dixon, Brian E; Gichoya, Judy; Xu, Huiping; Xia, Yuni; Mamlin, Burke; Grannis, Shaun J

2016-04-01

Increased adoption of electronic health records has resulted in increased availability of free text clinical data for secondary use. A variety of approaches to obtain actionable information from unstructured free text data exist. These approaches are resource intensive, inherently complex and rely on structured clinical data and dictionary-based approaches. We sought to evaluate the potential to obtain actionable information from free text pathology reports using routinely available tools and approaches that do not depend on dictionary-based approaches. We obtained pathology reports from a large health information exchange and evaluated the capacity to detect cancer cases from these reports using 3 non-dictionary feature selection approaches, 4 feature subset sizes, and 5 clinical decision models: simple logistic regression, naïve bayes, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and J48 decision tree. The performance of each decision model was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Decision models parameterized using automated, informed, and manual feature selection approaches yielded similar results. Furthermore, non-dictionary classification approaches identified cancer cases present in free text reports with evaluation measures approaching and exceeding 80-90% for most metrics. Our methods are feasible and practical approaches for extracting substantial information value from free text medical data, and the results suggest that these methods can perform on par, if not better, than existing dictionary-based approaches. Given that public health agencies are often under-resourced and lack the technical capacity for more complex methodologies, these results represent potentially significant value to the public health field. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Equality of Shapley value and fair proportion index in phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Fuchs, Michael; Jin, Emma Yu

2015-11-01

The Shapley value and the fair proportion index of phylogenetic trees have been introduced recently for the purpose of making conservation decisions in genetics. Moreover, also very recently, Hartmann (J Math Biol 67:1163-1170, 2013) has presented data which shows that there is a strong correlation between a slightly modified version of the Shapley value (which we call the modified Shapley value) and the fair proportion index. He gave an explanation of this correlation by showing that the contribution of both indices to an edge of the tree becomes identical as the number of taxa tends to infinity. In this note, we show that the Shapley value and the fair proportion index are in fact the same. Moreover, we also consider the modified Shapley value and show that its covariance with the fair proportion index in random phylogenetic trees under the Yule-Harding model and uniform model is indeed close to one.

Assessing Surface Fuel Hazard in Coastal Conifer Forests through the Use of LiDAR Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koulas, Christos

The research problem that this thesis seeks to examine is a method of predicting conventional fire hazards using data drawn from specific regions, namely the Sooke and Goldstream watershed regions in coastal British Columbia. This thesis investigates whether LiDAR data can be used to describe conventional forest stand fire hazard classes. Three objectives guided this thesis: to discuss the variables associated with fire hazard, specifically the distribution and makeup of fuel; to examine the relationship between derived LiDAR biometrics and forest attributes related to hazard assessment factors defined by the Capitol Regional District (CRD); and to assess the viability of the LiDAR biometric decision tree in the CRD based on current frameworks for use. The research method uses quantitative datasets to assess the optimal generalization of these types of fire hazard data through discriminant analysis. Findings illustrate significant LiDAR-derived data limitations, and reflect the literature in that flawed field application of data modelling techniques has led to a disconnect between the ways in which fire hazard models have been intended to be used by scholars and the ways in which they are used by those tasked with prevention of forest fires. It can be concluded that a significant trade-off exists between computational requirements for wildfire simulation models and the algorithms commonly used by field teams to apply these models with remote sensing data, and that CRD forest management practices would need to change to incorporate a decision tree model in order to decrease risk.

Using decision analysis to assess comparative clinical efficacy of surgical treatment of unstable ankle fractures.

PubMed

Michelson, James D

2013-11-01

The development of a robust treatment algorithm for ankle fractures based on well-established stability criteria has been shown to be prognostic with respect to treatment and outcomes. In parallel with the development of improved understanding of the biomechanical rationale of ankle fracture treatment has been an increased emphasis on assessing the effectiveness of medical and surgical interventions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of using decision analysis in the assessment of the cost effectiveness of operative treatment of ankle fractures based on the existing clinical data in the literature. Using the data obtained from a previous structured review of the ankle fracture literature, decision analysis trees were constructed using standard software. The decision nodes for the trees were based on ankle fracture stability criteria previously published. The outcomes were assessed by calculated Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) assigned to achieving normal ankle function, developing posttraumatic arthritis, or sustaining a postoperative infection. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken by varying the patient's age, incidence of arthritis, and incidence or infection. Decision analysis trees captured the essential aspects of clinical decision making in ankle fracture treatment in a clinically useful manner. In general, stable fractures yielded better outcomes with nonoperative treatment, whereas unstable fractures had better outcomes with surgery. These were consistent results over a wide range of postoperative infection rates. Varying the age of the patient did not qualitatively change the results. Between the ages of 30 and 80 years, surgery yielded higher expected QALYs than nonoperative care for unstable fractures, and generated lower QALYs than nonoperative care for stable fractures. Using local cost estimates for operative and nonoperative treatment, the incremental cost of surgery for unstable fractures was less than $40,000 per QALY (the usual cutoff for the determination of cost effectiveness) for patients aged up to 90 years. Decision analysis is a useful methodology in developing treatment guidelines. Numerous previous studies have indicated superior clinical outcomes when unstable ankle fractures underwent operative reduction and stabilization. What has been lacking was an examination of the cost effectiveness of such an approach, particularly in older patients who have fewer expected years of life. In light of the evidence for satisfactory outcomes for surgery of severe ankle fractures in older people, the justification for operative intervention is an obvious question that can be asked in the current increasingly cost-conscious environment. Using a decision-tree decision analysis structured around the stability-based ankle fracture classification system, in conjunction with a relatively simple cost effectiveness analysis, this study was able to demonstrate that surgical treatment of unstable ankle fractures in elderly patients is in fact cost effective. The clinical implication of the present analysis is that these existing treatment protocols for ankle fracture treatment are also cost effective when quality of life outcome measures are taken into account. Economic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.