Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Assessing Causal Mechanistic Interactions: A Peril Ratio Index of Synergy Based on Multiplicativity

PubMed Central

Lee, Wen-Chung

2013-01-01

The assessments of interactions in epidemiology have traditionally been based on risk-ratio, odds-ratio or rate-ratio multiplicativity. However, many epidemiologists fail to recognize that this is mainly for statistical conveniences and often will misinterpret a statistically significant interaction as a genuine mechanistic interaction. The author adopts an alternative metric system for risk, the ‘peril’. A peril is an exponentiated cumulative rate, or simply, the inverse of a survival (risk complement) or one plus an odds. The author proposes a new index based on multiplicativity of peril ratios, the ‘peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity’ (PRISM). Under the assumption of no redundancy, PRISM can be used to assess synergisms in sufficient cause sense, i.e., causal co-actions or causal mechanistic interactions. It has a less stringent threshold to detect a synergy as compared to a previous index of ‘relative excess risk due to interaction’. Using the new PRISM criterion, many situations in which there is not evidence of interaction judged by the traditional indices are in fact corresponding to bona fide positive or negative synergisms. PMID:23826299

Gait initiation time is associated with the risk of multiple falls-A population-based study.

PubMed

Callisaya, Michele L; Blizzard, Leigh; Martin, Kara; Srikanth, Velandai K

2016-09-01

In a population-based study of older people to examine whether 1) overall gait initiation (GI) time or its components are associated with falls and 2) GI under dual-task is a stronger predictor of falls risk than under single-task. Participants aged 60-85 years were randomly selected from the electoral roll. GI was obtained with a force platform under both single and dual-task conditions. Falls were ascertained prospectively over a 12-month period. Log multinomial regression was used to examine the association between GI time (total and its components) and risk of single and multiple falls. Age, sex and physiological and cognitive falls risk factors were considered as confounders. The mean age of the sample (n=124) was 71.0 (SD 6.8) years and 58.9% (n=73) were male. Over 12 months 21.8% (n=27) of participants reported a single fall and 16.1% (n=20) reported multiple falls. Slower overall GI time under both single (RR all per 100ms 1.28, 95%CI 1.03, 1.58) and dual-task (RR 1.14, 95%CI 1.02, 1.27) was associated with increased risk of multiple, but not single falls (p<0.05). Multiple falls were also associated with slower time to first lateral movement under single-task (RR 1.90 95%CI 0.59, 1.51) and swing time under dual-task condition (RR 1.44 95%CI 1.08, 1.94). Slower GI time is associated with the risk of multiple falls independent of other risk factors, suggesting it could be used as part of a comprehensive falls assessment. Time to the first lateral movement under single-task may be the best measures of this risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adolescent Non-Involvement in Multiple Risk Behaviors: An Indicator of Successful Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willoughby, Teena; Chalmers, Heather; Busseri, Michael A.; Bosacki, Sandra; Dupont, Diane; Marini, Zopito; Rose-Krasnor, Linda; Sadava, Stan; Ward, Anthony; Woloshyn, Vera

2007-01-01

Based on the conceptualization of successful development as the joint maximization of desirable outcomes and minimization of undesirable outcomes (Baltes, 1997), the present study examined connections between adolescent non-involvement in multiple risk behaviors and positive developmental status. Results from a survey of 7290 high school students…

War-related trauma exposure and multiple risk behaviors among school-going adolescents in Northern Uganda: the mediating role of depression symptoms.

PubMed

Okello, James; Nakimuli-Mpungu, Etheldreda; Musisi, Seggane; Broekaert, Eric; Derluyn, Ilse

2013-11-01

The relationship between war-related trauma exposure, depressive symptoms and multiple risk behaviors among adolescents is less clear in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed data collected from a sample of school-going adolescents four years postwar. Participants completed interviews assessing various risk behaviors defined by the Youth Self Report (YSR) and a sexual risk behavior survey, and were screened for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression symptoms based on the Impact of Events Scale Revised (IESR) and Hopkins Symptom Checklist for Adolescents (HSCL-37A) respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors independently associated with multiple risk behaviors. The logistic regression model of Baron and Kenny (1986) was used to evaluate the mediating role of depression in the relationship between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. Of 551 participants, 139 (25%) reported multiple (three or more) risk behaviors in the past year. In the multivariate analyses, depression symptoms remained uniquely associated with multiple risk behavior after adjusting for potential confounders including socio-demographic characteristics, war-related trauma exposure variables, anxiety and post-traumatic stress symptoms. In mediation analysis, depression symptoms mediated the associations between stressful war events and multiple risk behaviors. The psychometric properties of the questionnaires used in this study are not well established in war affected African samples thus ethno cultural variation may decrease the validity of our measures. Adolescents with depression may be at a greater risk of increased engagement in multiple risk behaviors. Culturally sensitive and integrated interventions to treat and prevent depression among adolescents in post-conflict settings are urgently needed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple imputation for handling missing outcome data when estimating the relative risk.

PubMed

Sullivan, Thomas R; Lee, Katherine J; Ryan, Philip; Salter, Amy B

2017-09-06

Multiple imputation is a popular approach to handling missing data in medical research, yet little is known about its applicability for estimating the relative risk. Standard methods for imputing incomplete binary outcomes involve logistic regression or an assumption of multivariate normality, whereas relative risks are typically estimated using log binomial models. It is unclear whether misspecification of the imputation model in this setting could lead to biased parameter estimates. Using simulated data, we evaluated the performance of multiple imputation for handling missing data prior to estimating adjusted relative risks from a correctly specified multivariable log binomial model. We considered an arbitrary pattern of missing data in both outcome and exposure variables, with missing data induced under missing at random mechanisms. Focusing on standard model-based methods of multiple imputation, missing data were imputed using multivariate normal imputation or fully conditional specification with a logistic imputation model for the outcome. Multivariate normal imputation performed poorly in the simulation study, consistently producing estimates of the relative risk that were biased towards the null. Despite outperforming multivariate normal imputation, fully conditional specification also produced somewhat biased estimates, with greater bias observed for higher outcome prevalences and larger relative risks. Deleting imputed outcomes from analysis datasets did not improve the performance of fully conditional specification. Both multivariate normal imputation and fully conditional specification produced biased estimates of the relative risk, presumably since both use a misspecified imputation model. Based on simulation results, we recommend researchers use fully conditional specification rather than multivariate normal imputation and retain imputed outcomes in the analysis when estimating relative risks. However fully conditional specification is not without its shortcomings, and so further research is needed to identify optimal approaches for relative risk estimation within the multiple imputation framework.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

Single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment: systematic review, meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-02-01

Single-visit root canal treatment has some advantages over conventional multivisit treatment, but might increase the risk of complications. We systematically evaluated the risk of complications after single-visit or multiple-visit root canal treatment using meta-analysis and trial-sequential analysis. Controlled trials comparing single-visit versus multiple-visit root canal treatment of permanent teeth were included. Trials needed to assess the risk of long-term complications (pain, infection, new/persisting/increasing periapical lesions ≥1 year after treatment), short-term pain or flare-up (acute exacerbation of initiation or continuation of root canal treatment). Electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central) were screened, random-effects meta-analyses performed and trial-sequential analysis used to control for risk of random errors. Evidence was graded according to GRADE. 29 trials (4341 patients) were included, all but 6 showing high risk of bias. Based on 10 trials (1257 teeth), risk of complications was not significantly different in single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (risk ratio (RR) 1.00 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.35); weak evidence). Based on 20 studies (3008 teeth), risk of pain did not significantly differ between treatments (RR 0.99 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.30); moderate evidence). Risk of flare-up was recorded by 8 studies (1110 teeth) and was significantly higher after single-visit versus multiple-visit treatment (RR 2.13 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.89); very weak evidence). Trial-sequential analysis revealed that firm evidence for benefit, harm or futility was not reached for any of the outcomes. There is insufficient evidence to rule out whether important differences between both strategies exist. Dentists can provide root canal treatment in 1 or multiple visits. Given the possibly increased risk of flare-ups, multiple-visit treatment might be preferred for certain teeth (eg, those with periapical lesions). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Fall risk and incidence reduction in high risk individuals with multiple sclerosis: a pilot randomized control trial.

PubMed

Sosnoff, Jacob J; Moon, Yaejin; Wajda, Douglas A; Finlayson, Marcia L; McAuley, Edward; Peterson, Elizabeth W; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

2015-10-01

To determine the feasibility of three fall prevention programs delivered over 12 weeks among individuals with multiple sclerosis: (A) a home-based exercise program targeting physiological risk factors; (B) an educational program targeting behavioral risk factors; and (C) a combined exercise-and-education program targeting both factors. Randomized controlled trial. Home-based training with assessments at research laboratory. A total of 103 individuals inquired about the investigation. After screening, 37 individuals with multiple sclerosis who had fallen in the last year and ranged in age from 45-75 years volunteered for the investigation. A total of 34 participants completed postassessment following the 12-week intervention. Participants were randomly assigned into one of four conditions: (1) wait-list control (n = 9); (2) home-based exercise (n = 11); (3) education (n = 9); or (4) a combined exercise and education (n = 8) group. Before and after the 12-week interventions, participants underwent a fall risk assessment as determined by the physiological profile assessment and provided information on their fall prevention behaviors as indexed by the Falls Prevention Strategy Survey. Participants completed falls diaries during the three-months postintervention. A total of 34 participants completed postintervention testing. Procedures and processes were found to be feasible. Overall, fall risk scores were lower in the exercise groups (1.15 SD 1.31) compared with the non-exercise groups (2.04 SD 1.04) following the intervention (p < 0.01). There was no group difference in fall prevention behaviors (p > 0.05). Further examination of home-based exercise/education programs for reducing falls in individuals with multiple sclerosis is warranted. A total of 108 participants would be needed in a larger randomized controlled trial.ClinicalTrials.org #NCT01956227. © The Author(s) 2014.

Diagnosis-based Cost Groups in the Dutch Risk-equalization Model: Effects of Clustering Diagnoses and of Allowing Patients to be Classified into Multiple Risk-classes.

PubMed

Eijkenaar, Frank; van Vliet, René C J A; van Kleef, Richard C

2018-01-01

The risk-equalization (RE) model in the Dutch health insurance market has evolved to a sophisticated model containing direct proxies for health. However, it still has important imperfections, leaving incentives for risk selection. This paper focuses on refining an important health-based risk-adjuster in this model: the diagnosis-based costs groups (DCGs). The current (2017) DCGs are calibrated on "old" data of 2011/2012, are mutually exclusive, and are essentially clusters of about 200 diagnosis-groups ("dxgroups"). Hospital claims data (2013), administrative data (2014) on costs and risk-characteristics for the entire Dutch population (N≈16.9 million), and health survey data (2012, N≈387,000) are used. The survey data are used to identify subgroups of individuals in poor or in good health. The claims and administrative data are used to develop alternative DCG-modalities to examine the impact on individual-level and group-level fit of recalibrating the DCGs based on new data, of allowing patients to be classified in multiple DCGs, and of refraining from clustering. Recalibrating the DCGs and allowing enrolees to be classified into multiple DCGs lead to nontrivial improvements in individual-level and group-level fit (especially for cancer patients and people with comorbid conditions). The improvement resulting from refraining from clustering does not seem to justify the increase in model complexity this would entail. The performance of the sophisticated Dutch RE-model can be improved by allowing classification in multiple (clustered) DCGs and using new data. Irrespective of the modality used, however, various subgroups remain significantly undercompensated. Further improvement of the RE-model merits high priority.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

Multiple Risks and Educational Well Being: A Population-Based Investigation of Threats to Early School Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, Heather L.; Fantuzzo, John W.

2009-01-01

The current research study used a developmental-epidemiological approach to examine the prevalence and impact of multiple risks on educational outcomes for an entire population of second grade children in a low-income, urban public school system. The Kids Integrated Data System (KIDS) provided information about children's entire histories of…

Effects of Comprehensive, Multiple High-Risk Behaviors Prevention Program on High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collier, Crystal

2013-01-01

The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the effect of a multiple high-risk behaviors prevention program applied comprehensively throughout an entire school-system involving universal, selective, and indicated levels of students at a local private high school during a 4-year period. The prevention program was created based upon the…

Exposure to child abuse and risk for mental health problems in women.

PubMed

Schneider, Renee; Baumrind, Nikki; Kimerling, Rachel

2007-01-01

Risk for adult mental health problems associated with child sexual, physical, or emotional abuse and multiple types of child abuse was examined. Logistic regression analyses were used to test study hypotheses in a population-based sample of women (N = 3,936). As expected, child sexual, physical, and emotional abuse were independently associated with increased risk for mental health problems. History of multiple types of child abuse was also associated with elevated risk for mental health problems. In particular, exposure to all three types of child abuse was linked to a 23-fold increase in risk for probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Findings underscore relations between child emotional abuse and adult mental health problems and highlight the need for mental health services for survivors of multiple types of child abuse.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Young Adult and Usual Adult Body Mass Index and Multiple Myeloma Risk: A Pooled Analysis in the International Multiple Myeloma Consortium (IMMC).

PubMed

Birmann, Brenda M; Andreotti, Gabriella; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Camp, Nicola J; Chiu, Brian C H; Spinelli, John J; Becker, Nikolaus; Benhaim-Luzon, Véronique; Bhatti, Parveen; Boffetta, Paolo; Brennan, Paul; Brown, Elizabeth E; Cocco, Pierluigi; Costas, Laura; Cozen, Wendy; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Foretová, Lenka; Giles, Graham G; Maynadié, Marc; Moysich, Kirsten; Nieters, Alexandra; Staines, Anthony; Tricot, Guido; Weisenburger, Dennis; Zhang, Yawei; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark P

2017-06-01

Background: Multiple myeloma risk increases with higher adult body mass index (BMI). Emerging evidence also supports an association of young adult BMI with multiple myeloma. We undertook a pooled analysis of eight case-control studies to further evaluate anthropometric multiple myeloma risk factors, including young adult BMI. Methods: We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis of usual adult anthropometric measures of 2,318 multiple myeloma cases and 9,609 controls, and of young adult BMI (age 25 or 30 years) for 1,164 cases and 3,629 controls. Results: In the pooled sample, multiple myeloma risk was positively associated with usual adult BMI; risk increased 9% per 5-kg/m 2 increase in BMI [OR, 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.14; P = 0.007]. We observed significant heterogeneity by study design ( P = 0.04), noting the BMI-multiple myeloma association only for population-based studies ( P trend = 0.0003). Young adult BMI was also positively associated with multiple myeloma (per 5-kg/m 2 ; OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3; P = 0.0002). Furthermore, we observed strong evidence of interaction between younger and usual adult BMI ( P interaction <0.0001); we noted statistically significant associations with multiple myeloma for persons overweight (25-<30 kg/m 2 ) or obese (30+ kg/m 2 ) in both younger and usual adulthood (vs. individuals consistently <25 kg/m 2 ), but not for those overweight or obese at only one time period. Conclusions: BMI-associated increases in multiple myeloma risk were highest for individuals who were overweight or obese throughout adulthood. Impact: These findings provide the strongest evidence to date that earlier and later adult BMI may increase multiple myeloma risk and suggest that healthy BMI maintenance throughout life may confer an added benefit of multiple myeloma prevention. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(6); 876-85. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

2017-12-01

Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

Risk of multiple myeloma following medication use and medical conditions: a case-control study in Connecticut women.

PubMed

Landgren, Ola; Zhang, Yawei; Zahm, Sheila Hoar; Inskip, Peter; Zheng, Tongzhang; Baris, Dalsu

2006-12-01

Certain commonly used drugs and medical conditions characterized by chronic immune dysfunction and/or antigen stimulation have been suggested to affect important pathways in multiple myeloma tumor cell growth and survival. We conducted a population-based case-control study to investigate the role of medical history in the etiology of multiple myeloma among Connecticut women. A total of 179 incident multiple myeloma cases (21-84 years, diagnosed 1996-2002) and 691 population-based controls was included in this study. Information on medical conditions, medications, and medical radiation was obtained by in-person interviews. We calculated odds ratios (OR) as measures of relative risks using logistic regression models. A reduced multiple myeloma risk was found among women who had used antilipid statin therapy [OR, 0.4; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.2-0.8] or estrogen replacement therapy (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.99) or who had a medical history of allergy (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7), scarlet fever (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9), or bursitis (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7). An increased risk of multiple myeloma was found among women who used prednisone (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.8-14.4), insulin (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.1-9.0), or gout medication (OR, 6.7; 95% CI, 1.2-38.0). If our results are confirmed, mechanistic studies examining how prior use of insulin, prednisone, and, perhaps, gout medication might promote increased occurrence of multiple myeloma and how antilipid statins, estrogen replacement therapy, and certain medical conditions might protect against multiple myeloma may provide insights to the as yet unknown etiology of multiple myeloma.

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression: moving from single to multiple risk marker response scores.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; Mol, Peter G M; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2015-11-01

There is increased interest in developing surrogate endpoints for clinical trials of chronic kidney disease progression, as the established clinically meaningful endpoint end-stage renal disease requires large and lengthy trials to assess drug efficacy. We describe recent developments in the search for novel surrogate endpoints. Declines in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30% or 40% and albuminuria have been proposed as surrogates for end-stage renal disease. However, changes in eGFR or albuminuria may not be valid under all circumstances as drugs always have effects on multiple renal risk markers. Changes in each of these other 'off-target' risk markers can alter renal risk (either beneficially or adversely), and can thereby confound the relationship between surrogates that are based on single risk markers and renal outcome. Risk algorithms that integrate the short-term drug effects on multiple risk markers to predict drug effects on hard renal outcomes may therefore be more accurate. The validity of these risk algorithms is currently investigated. Given that drugs affect multiple renal risk markers, risk scores that integrate these effects are a promising alternative to using eGFR decline or albuminuria. Proper validation is required before these risk scores can be implemented.

A systematic review of effective interventions for reducing multiple health risk behaviors in adolescence.

PubMed

Hale, Daniel R; Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

2014-05-01

We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980-2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies.

Risk of fetal death associated with maternal drug dependence and placental abruption: a population-based study.

PubMed

McDonald, Sarah D; Vermeulen, Marian J; Ray, Joel G

2007-07-01

Substance use in pregnancy is associated with placental abruption, but the risk of fetal death independent of abruption remains undetermined. Our objective was to examine the effect of maternal drug dependence on placental abruption and on fetal death in association with abruption and independent of it. To examine placental abruption and fetal death, we performed a retrospective population-based study of 1 854 463 consecutive deliveries of liveborn and stillborn infants occurring between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2001, using the Canadian Institute for Health Information Discharge Abstract Database. Maternal drug dependence was associated with a tripling of the risk of placental abruption in singleton pregnancies (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.6-3.7), but not in multiple gestations (adjusted OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.12-6.4). Maternal drug dependence was associated with an increased risk of fetal death independent of abruption (adjusted OR 1.6: 95% CI 1.1-2.2) in singleton pregnancies, but not in multiples. Risk of fetal death was increased with placental abruption in both singleton and multiple gestations, even after controlling for drug dependence (adjusted OR 11.4 in singleton pregnancy; 95% CI 10.6-12.2, and 3.4 in multiple pregnancy; 95% CI 2.4-4.9). Maternal drug use is associated with an increased risk of intrauterine fetal death independent of placental abruption. In singleton pregnancies, maternal drug dependence is associated with an increased risk of placental abruption.

Anthropometric characteristics and risk of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Blair, Cindy K; Cerhan, James R; Folsom, Aaron R; Ross, Julie A

2005-09-01

Few studies have examined obesity and risk for multiple myeloma, and the results are inconsistent. Laboratory evidence suggests mechanisms through which obesity could influence carcinogenesis of this hematopoietic malignancy. We examined the association between anthropometric characteristics and incident multiple myeloma in a prospective, population-based sample of 37,083 postmenopausal women. In 1986, the women completed a mailed questionnaire that included self-report of height and weight, and friend measurement of waist and hip circumferences. During 16 years of follow up, 95 cases of multiple myeloma were identified through linkage to the Iowa Cancer Registry. In an age-adjusted model, women in the highest category of several anthropometric measurements compared with the lowest category were at increased risk of developing multiple myeloma. For body mass index (kg/m), the rate ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.5 (0.92-2.6); for weight, 1.9 (1.1-3.4); for waist circumference, 2.0 (1.1-3.5); and for hip circumference, 1.8 (1.0-3.0). Greater adiposity may increase the risk of multiple myeloma.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

PubMed Central

Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley D.; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Xue, Jianping; Subramanian, SV; Levy, Jonathan I.

2011-01-01

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. PMID:22016710

Parental Attitudes Regarding School-Based Sexuality Education in Utah

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steadman, Mindy; Crookston, Benjamin; Page, Randy; Hall, Cougar

2014-01-01

Sexuality education programs can be broadly categorized as either risk-avoidance or risk-reduction approaches. Health educators in Utah public schools must teach a state mandated risk-avoidance curriculum which prohibits the advocacy or encouragement of contraception. Multiple national surveys indicate that parents prefer a risk-reduction approach…

A Systematic Review of Effective Interventions for Reducing Multiple Health Risk Behaviors in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald-Yau, Natasha; Viner, Russell Mark

2014-01-01

We systematically searched 9 biomedical and social science databases (1980–2012) for primary and secondary interventions that prevented or reduced 2 or more adolescent health risk behaviors (tobacco use, alcohol use, illicit drug use, risky sexual behavior, aggressive acts). We identified 44 randomized controlled trials of universal or selective interventions and were effective for multiple health risk behaviors. Most were school based, conducted in the United States, and effective for multiple forms of substance use. Effects were small, in line with findings for other universal prevention programs. In some studies, effects for more than 1 health risk behavior only emerged at long-term follow-up. Integrated prevention programs are feasible and effective and may be more efficient than discrete prevention strategies. PMID:24625172

Should multifetal pregnancy reduction be used for prevention of preterm deliveries in triplet or higher order multiple pregnancies?

PubMed

Papiernik, E; Grangé, G; Zeitlin, J

1998-01-01

This article reviews the arguments for the use of multifetal pregnancy reduction (MFPR) for the prevention of preterm deliveries in triplet and higher order multiple pregnancies and evaluates its effectiveness based on data from published studies. The arguments in favour of pregnancy reduction are based on the substantial mortality and morbidity associated with these pregnancies. Triplets and higher order multiples have increased rates of preterm delivery and intrauterine growth retardation, both of which are independent risk factors for death and handicap. Even controlling for gestational age, rates of mortality and handicap are higher for multiples than for singletons. Moreover, the family's risk of losing a child or having a handicapped child is greater because there are more infants at risk. MFPR effectively lowers these risk by reducing the frequency of preterm delivery. However, its effectiveness may be limited. In some studies, the proportion of preterm deliveries in reduced pregnancies remains above levels found in spontaneous twin or singleton pregnancies and MFPR does not appear to reduce the prevalence of low birth weight. Furthermore, the procedure itself has unwanted side effects: it increases the risk of miscarriage, premature rupture of the membranes and causes adverse psychological effects such as grief or depression for many patients. The authors note that a majority of the higher order multiple pregnancies result from a medical intervention in the first place, either through IVF techniques or the use of ovulation stimulation drugs. Although MFPR is an effective measure for reducing the substantial morbidity and mortality associated with higher order multiple pregnancies, preventive methods, such as limiting to 2 the number of embryos transferred for IVF and better control of the use of ovulation induction drugs, remain more effective and less intrusive.

Effect of mood states and infertility stress on patients' attitudes toward embryo transfer and multiple pregnancy.

PubMed

Newton, Christopher; Feyles, Valter; Asgary-Eden, Veronica

2013-08-01

To examine whether mood state or infertility stress influences perceptions of risk, preferences for embryo transfer, or views on multiple pregnancy. Observational cohort study. Hospital-based fertility clinic. One hundred seventy-six women participating in IVF treatment. None. Mood scores, ratings of risk, preference for multiple embryo transfer, and attitudes toward multiple pregnancy. Growing feelings of tension across the cycle corresponded with increases in the perceived riskiness of double-embryo transfer, but there was no change in strength of transfer preferences. Women experiencing negative moods, such as depression, viewed twin and triplet pregnancy as less likely, whereas increasing positive feelings across the cycle were associated with increasing desire for twin pregnancy. Overall, women perceived double- and triple-embryo transfer as less risky by cycle end than at cycle beginning and felt more certain about multiple-embryo transfer. The dyssynchrony observed among changes in mood, perceptions of risk, and transfer preferences challenges assumptions about the way medical risk information influences transfer preferences, and the findings suggest that mood states experienced during an IVF cycle might affect transfer preferences by influencing attitudes toward multiple pregnancy. Additional considerations beyond providing risk information are needed to facilitate effective patient decision making. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High-risk human papillomavirus infection involving multiple anatomic sites of the female lower genital tract: a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction-based study.

PubMed

Hui, Yiang; Manna, Pradip; Ou, Joyce J; Kerley, Spencer; Zhang, Cunxian; Sung, C James; Lawrence, W Dwayne; Quddus, M Ruhul

2015-09-01

High-risk human papillomavirus infection usually is seen at one anatomic site in an individual. Rarely, infection at multiple anatomic sites of the female lower genital tract in the same individual is encountered either simultaneously and/or at a later date. The current study identifies the various subtypes of high-risk human papillomavirus infection in these scenarios and analyzes the potential significance of these findings. High-risk human papillomavirus infection involving 22 anatomic sites from 7 individuals was identified after institutional review board approval. Residual paraffin-embedded tissue samples were retrieved, and all 15 high-risk human papillomavirus were identified and viral load quantified using multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction-based method. Multiple high-risk human papillomavirus subtypes were identified in 32% of the samples and as many as 5 different subtypes of high-risk human papillomavirus infection in a single anatomic site. In general, each anatomic site has unique combination of viral subtypes, although one individual showed overlapping subtypes in the vagina, cervix, and vulvar samples. Higher viral load and rare subtypes are more frequent in younger patients and in dysplasia compared with carcinoma. Follow-up ranging from 3 to 84 months revealed persistent high-risk human papillomavirus infection in 60% of cases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Translating evidence based violence and drug use prevention to obesity prevention: development and construction of the pathways program.

PubMed

Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K; Riggs, Nathaniel R; Pentz, Mary Ann

2012-04-01

Effective school-based obesity prevention programs are needed to prevent and reduce the growing obesity risk among youth. Utilizing the evidence-rich areas of violence and substance use prevention, translation science may provide an efficient means for developing curricula across multiple health behaviors. This paper introduces Pathways to Health, a school-based obesity prevention program that was developed by translating from evidence-based violence and drug use prevention programs, Promoting Alternative THinking Strategies and the Midwestern Prevention Project STAR (STAR). We illustrate how a hypothesized underlying behavior change mechanism in two domains of risk behavior, violence and substance use, can be applied to obesity prevention. A 4-step translational process is provided and may be relevant for use in developing other curricula to address multiple health risk behaviors. Practical application and decision points are also provided.

Translating evidence based violence and drug use prevention to obesity prevention: development and construction of the Pathways program

PubMed Central

Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K.; Riggs, Nathaniel R.; Pentz, Mary Ann

2012-01-01

Effective school-based obesity prevention programs are needed to prevent and reduce the growing obesity risk among youth. Utilizing the evidence-rich areas of violence and substance use prevention, translation science may provide an efficient means for developing curricula across multiple health behaviors. This paper introduces Pathways to Health, a school-based obesity prevention program that was developed by translating from evidence-based violence and drug use prevention programs, Promoting Alternative THinking Strategies and the Midwestern Prevention Project STAR (STAR). We illustrate how a hypothesized underlying behavior change mechanism in two domains of risk behavior, violence and substance use, can be applied to obesity prevention. A 4-step translational process is provided and may be relevant for use in developing other curricula to address multiple health risk behaviors. Practical application and decision points are also provided. PMID:21987475

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy Ascher

2011-01-01

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

Evidence-Based Assessment of Conduct Problems in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMahon, Robert J.; Frick, Paul J.

2005-01-01

This article provides a summary of research in 4 areas that have direct and important implications for evidence-based assessment of children and adolescents with conduct problems (CP): (a) the heterogeneity in types and severity of CP, (b) common comorbid conditions, (c) multiple risk factors associated with CP, and (d) multiple developmental…

AN APPROACH TO PREDICT RISKS TO WILDLIFE POPULATIONS FROM MERCURY AND OTHER STRESSORS

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) is developing tools for predicting risks of multiple stressors to wildlife populations, which support the development of risk-based protective criteria. NHEERL's res...

Multidimensional Patterns of Sexual Risk Behavior and Psychiatric Disorders in Men with Substance Use Disorders.

PubMed

Villalobos-Gallegos, Luis; Medina-Mora, María Elena; Benjet, Corina; Ruiz-Velasco, Silvia; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Marín-Navarrete, Rodrigo

2018-05-29

Previous evidence links substance use disorders (SUD) to STI/HIV risk and suggests that comorbid psychiatric disorders increase the probability to engage in sexual risk behaviors. This study had two aims: (1) to identify subgroups based on sexual risk behavior using a person-centered approach in a sample of substance users and (2) to measure the association of psychiatric and SUD with subgroup membership. We assessed 402 male adults with SUD, reporting sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months using the HIV-Risk Behavior Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Latent class analysis was performed to determine multidimensional patterns of sexual risk behaviors and multinomial logistic regression was utilized to associate classes with disorders. The three-class model showed the best fit, and the classes were labeled: Relationship-Based (31.34% of the sample), Condom-Based (39.55%), and Multiple Risks (29.10%). Controlling for age and marital status, major depressive disorders, antisocial personality disorder, and any psychiatric disorder were associated with the Multiple Risks class. Results stress the importance of developing a personalized assessment and counseling for sexual risk behaviors in individuals with SUD, particularly when they endorse criteria for comorbid psychiatric disorders. Future studies should focus on evaluating differential response to preventive interventions.

Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: the Case of Radon and Smoking

EPA Science Inventory

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case exam...

[From the prehypertensive adolescent to the hypertensive adult. Is possible to predict the conversion?].

PubMed

Pérez-Fernández, Guillermo Alberto; Grau-Abalo, Ricardo

2012-01-01

There are many risk factors for developing hypertension. In the XXI century, smarter ways to investigate are needed, so preventing the turning of an adolescent into a hypertensive adult must be a priority. The aim of this paper is to predict the risk of hypertension onset in adulthood, from cardiovascular tension and risk stratification since adolescence. A representative sample of 125 adolescents from the project "Pesquisaje Escolar en la Adolescencia de Hipertensión Arterial" (PESESCAD-HTA) was studied. They were diagnosed with prehypertension in 2001, and were followed for eight years (96 months) until January 2009. Two predictive indexes were obtained. The first, based on the total cardiovascular risk and the second from the multiplication of these risks with an accuracy index for each of 61.6% and 70.4%, respectively. The index based on the multiplication of cardiovascular risk can predict, with adequate accuracy, the turning of a prehypertensive adolescent into hypertensive once he/she reaches adulthood.

Iodine-based contrast media, multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathies: literature review and ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee guidelines.

PubMed

Stacul, Fulvio; Bertolotto, Michele; Thomsen, Henrik S; Pozzato, Gabriele; Ugolini, Donatella; Bellin, Marie-France; Bongartz, Georg; Clement, Olivier; Heinz-Peer, Gertraud; van der Molen, Aart; Reimer, Peter; Webb, Judith A W

2018-02-01

Many radiologists and clinicians still consider multiple myeloma (MM) and monoclonal gammopathies (MG) a contraindication for using iodine-based contrast media. The ESUR Contrast Media Safety Committee performed a systematic review of the incidence of post-contrast acute kidney injury (PC-AKI) in these patients. A systematic search in Medline and Scopus databases was performed for renal function deterioration studies in patients with MM or MG following administration of iodine-based contrast media. Data collection and analysis were performed according to the PRISMA statement 2009. Eligibility criteria and methods of analysis were specified in advance. Cohort and case-control studies reporting changes in renal function were included. Thirteen studies were selected that reported 824 iodine-based contrast medium administrations in 642 patients with MM or MG, in which 12 unconfounded cases of PC-AKI were found (1.6 %). The majority of patients had intravenous urography with high osmolality ionic contrast media after preparatory dehydration and purgation. MM and MG alone are not risk factors for PC-AKI. However, the risk of PC-AKI may become significant in dehydrated patients with impaired renal function. Hypercalcaemia may increase the risk of kidney damage, and should be corrected before contrast medium administration. Assessment for Bence-Jones proteinuria is not necessary. • Monoclonal gammopathies including multiple myeloma are a large spectrum of disorders. • In monoclonal gammopathy with normal renal function, PC-AKI risk is not increased. • Renal function is often reduced in myeloma, increasing the risk of PC-AKI. • Correction of hypercalcaemia is necessary in myeloma before iodine-based contrast medium administration. • Bence-Jones proteinuria assessment in myeloma is unnecessary before iodine-based contrast medium administration.

Mapping groundwater contamination risk of multiple aquifers using multi-model ensemble of machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Barzegar, Rahim; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari; Deo, Ravinesh; Fijani, Elham; Tziritis, Evangelos

2018-04-15

Constructing accurate and reliable groundwater risk maps provide scientifically prudent and strategic measures for the protection and management of groundwater. The objectives of this paper are to design and validate machine learning based-risk maps using ensemble-based modelling with an integrative approach. We employ the extreme learning machines (ELM), multivariate regression splines (MARS), M5 Tree and support vector regression (SVR) applied in multiple aquifer systems (e.g. unconfined, semi-confined and confined) in the Marand plain, North West Iran, to encapsulate the merits of individual learning algorithms in a final committee-based ANN model. The DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (VI) ranged from 56.7 to 128.1, categorized with no risk, low and moderate vulnerability thresholds. The correlation coefficient (r) and Willmott's Index (d) between NO 3 concentrations and VI were 0.64 and 0.314, respectively. To introduce improvements in the original DRASTIC method, the vulnerability indices were adjusted by NO 3 concentrations, termed as the groundwater contamination risk (GCR). Seven DRASTIC parameters utilized as the model inputs and GCR values utilized as the outputs of individual machine learning models were served in the fully optimized committee-based ANN-predictive model. The correlation indicators demonstrated that the ELM and SVR models outperformed the MARS and M5 Tree models, by virtue of a larger d and r value. Subsequently, the r and d metrics for the ANN-committee based multi-model in the testing phase were 0.8889 and 0.7913, respectively; revealing the superiority of the integrated (or ensemble) machine learning models when compared with the original DRASTIC approach. The newly designed multi-model ensemble-based approach can be considered as a pragmatic step for mapping groundwater contamination risks of multiple aquifer systems with multi-model techniques, yielding the high accuracy of the ANN committee-based model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Designing a multiple dependent state sampling plan based on the coefficient of variation.

PubMed

Yan, Aijun; Liu, Sanyang; Dong, Xiaojuan

2016-01-01

A multiple dependent state (MDS) sampling plan is developed based on the coefficient of variation of the quality characteristic which follows a normal distribution with unknown mean and variance. The optimal plan parameters of the proposed plan are solved by a nonlinear optimization model, which satisfies the given producer's risk and consumer's risk at the same time and minimizes the sample size required for inspection. The advantages of the proposed MDS sampling plan over the existing single sampling plan are discussed. Finally an example is given to illustrate the proposed plan.

Risk factors for multiple myeloma: a hospital-based case-control study in Northwest China.

PubMed

Wang, Qixia; Wang, Yiwei; Ji, Zhaohua; Chen, Xiequn; Pan, Yaozhu; Gao, Guangxun; Gu, Hongtao; Yang, Yang; Choi, Bernard C K; Yan, Yongping

2012-10-01

The distinctive racial/ethnic and geographic distribution of multiple myeloma (MM) suggests that both family history and environmental factors may contribute to its development. A hospital-based case-control study consisting of 220 confirmed MM cases and 220 individually matched patient controls, by sex, age and hospital was carried out at 5 major hospitals in Northwest China. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on demographics, family history, and the frequency of food items consumed. Based on multivariate analysis, a significant association between the risk of MM and family history of cancers in first degree relatives was observed (OR=4.03, 95% CI: 2.50-6.52). Fried food, cured/smoked food, black tea, and fish were not significantly associated with the risk of MM. Intake of shallot and garlic (OR=0.60, 95% CI: 0.43-0.85), soy food (OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.36-0.75) and green tea (OR=0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.53) was significantly associated with a reduced risk of MM. In contrast, intake of brined vegetables and pickle was significantly associated with an increased risk (OR=2.03, 95% CI: 1.41-2.93). A more than multiplicative interaction on the decreased risk of MM was found between shallot/garlic and soy food. Our study in Northwest China found an increased risk of MM with a family history of cancer, a diet characterized by low consumption of garlic, green tea and soy foods, and high consumption of pickled vegetables. The effect of green tea in reducing the risk of MM is an interesting new finding which should be further confirmed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children.

PubMed

Aw-Zoretic, J; Seth, D; Katzman, G; Sammet, S

2014-10-01

The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10-18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

A retrospective likelihood approach for efficient integration of multiple omics factors in case-control association studies.

PubMed

Balliu, Brunilda; Tsonaka, Roula; Boehringer, Stefan; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine

2015-03-01

Integrative omics, the joint analysis of outcome and multiple types of omics data, such as genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics data, constitute a promising approach for powerful and biologically relevant association studies. These studies often employ a case-control design, and often include nonomics covariates, such as age and gender, that may modify the underlying omics risk factors. An open question is how to best integrate multiple omics and nonomics information to maximize statistical power in case-control studies that ascertain individuals based on the phenotype. Recent work on integrative omics have used prospective approaches, modeling case-control status conditional on omics, and nonomics risk factors. Compared to univariate approaches, jointly analyzing multiple risk factors with a prospective approach increases power in nonascertained cohorts. However, these prospective approaches often lose power in case-control studies. In this article, we propose a novel statistical method for integrating multiple omics and nonomics factors in case-control association studies. Our method is based on a retrospective likelihood function that models the joint distribution of omics and nonomics factors conditional on case-control status. The new method provides accurate control of Type I error rate and has increased efficiency over prospective approaches in both simulated and real data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

HIV Risk Perception, Sexual Behavior, and HIV Prevalence among Men-Who-Have-Sex-with-Men at a Community-Based Voluntary Counseling and Testing Center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Koh, Kwee Choy; Yong, Lit Sin

2014-01-01

We describe the HIV risk perception, sexual behavior, and HIV prevalence among 423 men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) clients who received voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) services at a community-based center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The mean age was 29 years old. One hundred one (23.9%) clients rated themselves as low risk, 118 (27.9%) as medium risk, 36 (8.5%) as high risk, and 168 (39.7%) were unsure of their risk. Twenty-four (9.4%) clients tested HIV positive (4 (4%) low risk, 9 (7.6%) medium risk, 11 (30.6%) high risk, and 13 (7.7%) unsure risk). We found a positive correlation between risk perception and HIV infection in this study. Clients with high HIV risk perception have 17x the odds of testing HIV positive compared to low risk clients. High HIV risk perception was significantly associated with multiple sex partners, multiple types of sex partners, alcohol use before intercourse, unprotected sex beyond 6 months, and inconsistent condom use during anal sex compared to low risk clients. There were no statistically significant differences between medium risk and unsure risk clients compared to low risk clients. Strategies should be targeted towards change in sexual practices among those who are perceived to be at high risk.

Decrypting Information Sensitivity: Risk, Privacy, and Data Protection Law in the United States and the European Union

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fazlioglu, Muge

2017-01-01

This dissertation examines the risk-based approach to privacy and data protection and the role of information sensitivity within risk management. Determining what information carries the greatest risk is a multi-layered challenge that involves balancing the rights and interests of multiple actors, including data controllers, data processors, and…

Multiple Peer Group Self-Identification and Adolescent Tobacco Use

PubMed Central

Fuqua, Juliana L.; Gallaher, Peggy E.; Unger, Jennifer B.; Trinidad, Dennis R.; Sussman, Steve; Ortega, Enrique; Johnson, C. Anderson

2014-01-01

Associations between peer group self-identification and smoking were examined among 2,698 ethnically diverse middle school students in Los Angeles who self-identified with groups such as Rockers, Skaters, and Gamers. The sample was 47.1% male, 54.7% Latino, 25.4% Asian, 10.8% White, 9.1% Other ethnicity, and 59.3% children of immigrant parents. Multiple group self-identification was common: 84% identified with two or more groups and 65% identified with three or more groups. Logistic regression analyses indicated that as students endorsed more high-risk groups, the greater their risk of tobacco use. A classification tree analysis identified risk groups based on interactions among ethnicity, gender, and group self-identification. Psychographic targeting based on group self-identification could be useful to design more relevant smoking prevention messages for adolescents who identify with high-risk peer groups. PMID:22458850

Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

2017-01-01

Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe

2012-01-01

We used a risk matrix to assess risk from climate change for multiple forest species by discussing an example that depicts a range of risk for three tree species of northern Wisconsin. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or effects of that event. In the context of species habitats, likelihood is related to...

The risk assessment of sudden water pollution for river network system under multi-source random emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.

2016-12-01

Sudden water pollution accidents are unavoidable risk events that we must learn to co-exist with. In China's Taihu River Basin, the river flow conditions are complicated with frequently artificial interference. Sudden water pollution accident occurs mainly in the form of a large number of abnormal discharge of wastewater, and has the characteristics with the sudden occurrence, the uncontrollable scope, the uncertainty object and the concentrated distribution of many risk sources. Effective prevention of pollution accidents that may occur is of great significance for the water quality safety management. Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively. Using the time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, the pollution sources state switching model, water quality model for river network and Bayesian reasoning is integrated together, and the sudden water pollution risk assessment model for river network is developed to quantify the water quality risk under the collective influence of multiple pollution sources. Based on the isotope water transport mechanism, a dynamic tracing model of multiple pollution sources is established, which can describe the relationship between the excessive risk of the system and the multiple risk sources. Finally, the diagnostic reasoning algorithm based on Bayesian network is coupled with the multi-source tracing model, which can identify the contribution of each risk source to the system risk under the complex flow conditions. Taking Taihu Lake water system as the research object, the model is applied to obtain the reasonable results under the three typical years. Studies have shown that the water quality risk at critical sections are influenced by the pollution risk source, the boundary water quality, the hydrological conditions and self -purification capacity, and the multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body. The water quality risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a effective tool for systematically quantifying the random uncertainty in plain river network system, and it also provides the technical support for the decision-making of controlling the sudden water pollution through identification of critical pollution sources.

Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies

PubMed Central

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R.; Thompson, Simon G.; Wood, Angela M.; Tipping, Robert W.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Couper, David J.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Goya Wannamethee, S.; Morris, Richard W.; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Willeit, Peter; Schett, Georg; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Yarnell, John W.; Gallacher, John; Cushman, Mary; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russ; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Price, Jackie F.; Lee, Amanda J.; McLachlan, Stela; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Schöttker, Ben; Müller, Heiko; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Wennberg, Patrik; Salomaa, Veikko; Harald, Kennet; Jousilahti, Pekka; Vartiainen, Erkki; Woodward, Mark; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Arima, Hisatomi; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Nijpels, Giel; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Meade, Tom W.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cushman, Mary; Folsom, Aaron R.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Shea, Steven; Döring, Angela; Kuller, Lewis H.; Grandits, Greg; Gillum, Richard F.; Mussolino, Michael; Rimm, Eric B.; Hankinson, Sue E.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Kirkland, Susan; Shaffer, Jonathan A.; Shimbo, Daichi; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hillege, Hans L.; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Sattar, Naveed; Westendorp, Rudi G.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cantin, Bernard; Lamarche, Benoît; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wingard, Deborah L.; Bettencourt, Richele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Aspelund, Thor; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Thorsson, Bolli; Kavousi, Maryam; Witteman, Jacqueline C.; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H.; Howard, Barbara V.; Zhang, Ying; Best, Lyle; Umans, Jason G.; Onat, Altan; Sundström, Johan; Michael Gaziano, J.; Stampfer, Meir; Ridker, Paul M.; Michael Gaziano, J.; Ridker, Paul M.; Marmot, Michael; Clarke, Robert; Collins, Rory; Fletcher, Astrid; Brunner, Eric; Shipley, Martin; Kivimäki, Mika; Ridker, Paul M.; Buring, Julie; Cook, Nancy; Ford, Ian; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M.; Robertson, Michele; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; Alexander, Myriam; Butterworth, Adam S.; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Haycock, Philip; Kaptoge, Stephen; Pennells, Lisa; Thompson, Simon G.; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; White, Ian R.; Wood, Angela M.; Wormser, David; Danesh, John

2014-01-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

PubMed

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

2014-03-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.

Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors Among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

PubMed Central

Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Robles, Eden Hernandez; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

2015-01-01

More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social cognitive theory and principles of motivational interviewing originally developed for smoking cessation to also address physical activity and fruit/vegetable consumption among Latinos exhibiting multiple health risk behaviors. Literature reviews, focus groups, expert consultation, pretesting, and pilot testing were used to inform adaptation decisions. We identified common mechanisms underlying change in smoking, physical activity, and diet used as treatment targets; identified practical models of patient-centered cross-cultural service provision; and identified that family preferences and support as particularly strong concerns among the priority population. Adaptations made to the original intervention are described. The current study is a practical example of how an intervention can be adapted to maximize relevance and acceptability and also maintain the core elements of the original evidence-based intervention. The intervention has significant potential to influence cancer prevention efforts among Latinos in the United States and is being evaluated in a sample of 400 Latino overweight/obese smokers. PMID:25527143

Association of urinary metal profiles with altered glucose levels and diabetes risk: a population-based study in China.

PubMed

Feng, Wei; Cui, Xiuqing; Liu, Bing; Liu, Chuanyao; Xiao, Yang; Lu, Wei; Guo, Huan; He, Meian; Zhang, Xiaomin; Yuan, Jing; Chen, Weihong; Wu, Tangchun

2015-01-01

Elevated heavy metals and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were both associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. However, studies on the associations of heavy metals and essential elements with altered FPG and diabetes risk were limited or conflicting. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential associations of heavy metals and essential trace elements with FPG and diabetes risk among general Chinese population. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the associations of urinary concentrations of 23 metals with FPG, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and diabetes among 2242 community-based Chinese adults in Wuhan. We used the false discovery rate (FDR) method to correct for multiple hypothesis tests. After adjusting for potential confounders, urinary aluminum, titanium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, strontium, molybdenum, cadmium, antimony, barium, tungsten and lead were associated with altered FPG, IFG or diabetes risk (all P< 0.05); arsenic was only dose-dependently related to diabetes (P< 0.05). After additional adjustment for multiple testing, titanium, copper, zinc, selenium, rubidium, tungsten and lead were still significantly associated with one or more outcomes (all FDR-adjusted P< 0.05). Our results suggest that multiple metals in urine are associated with FPG, IFG or diabetes risk. Because the cross-sectional design precludes inferences about causality, further prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings.

Rift Valley fever risk map model and seroprevalence in selected wild ungulates and camels from Kenya

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based...

IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients

PubMed Central

Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H.; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm3/month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients. PMID:29861868

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

PubMed

Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-05-18

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

Communication-based assessment of developmental age for young children with developmental disabilities.

PubMed

DeVeney, Shari L; Hoffman, Lesa; Cress, Cynthia J

2012-06-01

In this study, the authors compared a multiple-domain strategy for assessing developmental age of young children with developmental disabilities who were at risk for long-term reliance on augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) with a communication-based strategy composed of receptive language and communication indices that may be less affected by physically challenging tasks than traditional developmental age scores. Participants were 42 children (age 9-27 months) with developmental disabilities and who were at risk for long-term reliance on AAC. Children were assessed longitudinally in their homes at 3 occasions over 18 months using multiple-domain and communication-based measures. Confirmatory factor analysis examined dimensionality across the measures, and age-equivalence scores under each strategy were compared, where possible. The communication-based latent factor of developmental age demonstrated good reliability and was almost perfectly correlated with the multiple-domain latent factor. However, the mean age-equivalence score of the communication-based assessment significantly exceeded that of the multiple-domain assessment by 5.3 months across ages. Clinicians working with young children with developmental disabilities should consider a communication-based approach as an alternative developmental age assessment strategy for characterizing children's capabilities, identifying challenges, and developing interventions. A communication-based developmental age estimation is sufficiently reliable and may result in more valid inferences about developmental age for children whose developmental or cognitive age scores may otherwise be limited by their physical capabilities.

Sexual Orientation Disparities in Sexually Transmitted Infection Risk Behaviors and Risk Determinants Among Sexually Active Adolescent Males: Results From a School-Based Sample

PubMed Central

Schnarrs, Phillip W.; Rosario, Margaret; Garofalo, Robert; Mustanski, Brian

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined disparities in risk determinants and risk behaviors for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) between gay-identified, bisexual-identified, and heterosexual-identified young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and heterosexual-identified young men who have sex with women (YMSW) using a school-based sample of US sexually active adolescent males. Methods. We analyzed a pooled data set of Youth Risk Behavior Surveys from 2005 and 2007 that included information on sexual orientation identity, sexual behaviors, and multiple STI risk factors. Results. Bisexual-identified adolescents were more likely to report multiple STI risk behaviors (number of sex partners, concurrent sex partners, and age of sexual debut) compared with heterosexual YMSW as well as heterosexual YMSM and gay-identified respondents. Gay, bisexual, and heterosexual YMSM were significantly more likely to report forced sex compared with heterosexual YMSW. Conclusions. Our results provide evidence that sexual health disparities emerge early in the life course and vary by both sexual orientation identity and sexual behaviors. In particular, they show that bisexual-identified adolescent males exhibit a unique risk profile that warrants targeted sexual health interventions. PMID:24825214

Epidemiologic characteristics of anophthalmia and bilateral microphthalmia among 2.5 million births in California, 1989-1997.

PubMed

Shaw, Gary M; Carmichael, Suzan L; Yang, Wei; Harris, John A; Finnell, Richard H; Lammer, Edward J

2005-08-15

There is a paucity of epidemiologic information about the eye malformations anophthalmia and microphthalmia. Using data from a large population-based registry, we explored prevalences and maternal/infant characteristics associated with anophthalmia and bilateral microphthalmia. Data were derived from the California Birth Defects Monitoring Program, a population-based active surveillance system for collecting information on infants and fetuses with congenital malformations using multiple source ascertainment. Approximately 2.5 million births (liveborn and stillborn) occurred during the ascertainment period, 1989-1997. Information on maternal and infant/fetal characteristics was obtained from California birth certificate and fetal death files. The prevalence per 10,000 livebirths and stillbirths for anophthalmia was 0.18 and for bilateral microphthalmia was 0.22. These estimates reflect prevalences among births without chromosomal anomalies. Relative risks of anophthalmia were modestly higher among women aged 40 or more (relative risk = 2.0, 95% confidence interval 0.5-8.6). Risks were substantially lower for those mothers with >12 years of education, even after adjusting for other study factors, relative risk = 0.6 (0.2-1.7). The risk of anophthalmia was approximately twofold among multiple births compared to singletons. Similar to results for anophthalmia, decreased risks for bilateral microphthalmia were observed for maternal education of 12 years or more and increased risks observed for multiple births. These data show descriptive epidemiologic features of anophthalmia and bilateral microphthalmia. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS TO ASSESS THE EFFECTS OF MERCURY AND HABITAT ALTERATION ON POPULATIONS OF AQUATIC-DEPENDENT WILDLIFE

EPA Science Inventory

NHEERL is conducting a demonstration project to develop tools and approaches for assessing the risks of multiple stressors to populations of piscivorous wildlife, leading to the development of risk-based criteria. Specifically, we are developing methods and approaches to assess...

Art Therapy Programs with At-Risk Students in Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varallo, Patrick A.

2012-01-01

Educating and meeting the multiple needs of students at risk of low academic achievement has been a growing concern for public schools in the United States. Many at-risk students require alternative school-based interventions. This study examined the operation, premise, and objectives of art therapy integrated in 14 school districts across the…

A systematic review of school-based eHealth interventions targeting alcohol use, smoking, physical inactivity, diet, sedentary behaviour and sleep among adolescents: a review protocol.

PubMed

Champion, Katrina E; Newton, Nicola C; Spring, Bonnie; Wafford, Q Eileen; Parmenter, Belinda J; Teesson, Maree

2017-12-06

Six key behavioural risk factors (risky alcohol use, smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour and unhealthy sleep patterns) have been identified as strong determinants of chronic disease, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers. School-based interventions targeting these multiple health risk behaviours among adolescents have the potential to halt the trajectory towards later disease, whilst online and mobile technology interventions offer advantages in terms of student engagement, reach and scalability. Despite this, the efficacy of eHealth school-based interventions targeting these six health risk behaviours among adolescents has not been evaluated. The proposed systematic review aims to address this by determining the nature and efficacy of existing eHealth school-based interventions targeting multiple health risk behaviours among adolescents. A systematic search of the MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library databases will be conducted to identify eligible published papers. Eligible studies will be randomised controlled trials, including cluster randomised controlled trials, of interventions targeting two or more of the following lifestyle risk behaviours: alcohol use, smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour and sleep. Eligible studies will be those evaluating interventions delivered in a secondary school setting among participants 11-18 years of age, via an eHealth platform (Internet, computers of mobile technology). Two reviewers will independently screen studies for eligibility, extract data and assess the risk of bias. Study outcomes will be summarised in a narrative synthesis, and meta-analyses will be conducted where it is appropriate to combine studies. It is anticipated that the results from this review will serve to inform the development of future eHealth multiple health behaviour interventions for adolescents by identifying common characteristics of effective programs and highlighting knowledge gaps in the evidence base. PROSPERO CRD42017072163.

Proceedings of the 2006 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference: Applying Mode of Action in Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling of interactions and multiple route exposure assessment; and integrating relative potency factors with response...defaults, while at the other end is the use of extensive chemical-specific data in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling or even...for internal dosimetry as well as an in depth prospective on the use and limitations of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models in

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Childhood infections and risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Bager, Peter; Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bihrmann, Kristine; Frisch, Morten; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Wohlfart, Jan; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Melbye, Mads; Westergaard, Tine

2004-11-01

Multiple sclerosis has been hypothesized to be the result from an aberrant immune response possibly triggered by delayed exposure to a common childhood infection. Because the vast majority of previous studies testing this hypothesis have been based on a history of childhood infections recalled years to decades later in adulthood, we investigated whether age at six common childhood infections was associated with risk of multiple sclerosis, using information recalled in the childhood of a historical cohort of school children in Denmark. Cases included all individuals with multiple sclerosis in the country born between 1940 and 1975, who had attended school in the capital, Copenhagen. Controls were age- and sex-matched peers. School health records were obtained for all subjects. The records contained information on measles, pertussis, scarlet fever, birth order, sibship size, social class of the father, school years, and name of school and attended school classes for children born since 1940 (n(cases) = 455, n(controls) = 1801). For children born since 1950, the records also contained information on rubella, varicella and mumps (n(cases) = 182, n(controls) = 690). Neither age at infection with measles, rubella, varicella, mumps, pertussis and scarlet fever (upper age limit, 14 years) nor the cumulative number of these infections between the ages of 10 and 14 years was associated with the risk of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the risk of multiple sclerosis was not associated with birth order or social class. No clustering of multiple sclerosis in school classes was observed. Our findings suggest that measles, rubella, mumps, varicella, pertussis and scarlet fever, even if acquired late in childhood, are not associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis later in life.

Type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis: A Danish population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nete M; Westergaard, Tine; Frisch, Morten; Rostgaard, Klaus; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Melbye, Mads; Hjalgrim, Henrik

2006-07-01

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) and multiple sclerosis (MS) contribute considerably to the burden of autoimmune diseases in young adults. Although HLA patterns of T1D and MS are considered mutually exclusive, individual and familial co-occurrence of the 2 diseases has been reported. To assess the co-occurrence of T1D and MS by estimating the risk for MS in patients with T1D and the risk for T1D in first-degree relatives of patients with MS. Two population-based disease registers, the Danish Hospital Discharge Register and the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Register were used to identify patients with T1D, defined as patients in whom diabetes was diagnosed before age 20 years (N = 6078), and patients with MS (N = 11 862). First-degree relatives (N = 14,771) of patients with MS were identified from family information in the Danish Civil Registration System. Patients with T1D and first-degree relatives of patients with MS were followed up for occurrence of MS and T1D, respectively, and the relative risks were expressed as standardized incidence ratios, that is, ratios of observed to expected numbers of outcomes based on national age, sex, and period-specific MS and T1D incidence rates. Patients with T1D were at more than 3-fold increased risk for development of MS (relative risk, 3.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.80-5.88; n = 11). First-degree relatives of patients with MS were at 63% increased risk (relative risk, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-2.12; n = 56) for development of T1D. However, adjusting for familial relationship to patients with T1D reduced the excess risk to 44% (relative risk, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.88; n = 56). The present nationwide cohort study demonstrates an intraindividual and, to a lesser degree, an intrafamilial co-occurrence of MS and T1D.

Patterns of multiple health risk-behaviours in university students and their association with mental health: application of latent class analysis.

PubMed

Kwan, M Y; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, K P; Duku, E; Faulkner, G

2016-08-01

University and college campuses may be the last setting where it is possible to comprehensively address the health of a large proportion of the young adult population. It is important that health promoters understand the collective challenges students are facing, and to better understand the broader lifestyle behavioural patterning evident during this life stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the clustering of modifiable health-risk behaviours and to explore the relationship between these identified clusters and mental health outcomes among a large Canadian university sample. Undergraduate students (n = 837; mean age = 21 years) from the University of Toronto completed the National College Health Assessment survey. The survey consists of approximately 300 items, including assessments of student health status, mental health and health-risk behaviours. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterning based on eight salient health-risk behaviours (marijuana use, other illicit drug use, risky sex, smoking, binge drinking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and insufficient sleep). A three-class model based on student behavioural patterns emerged: "typical," "high-risk" and "moderately healthy." Results also found high-risk students reporting significantly higher levels of stress than typical students (χ2(1671) = 7.26, p < .01). Students with the highest likelihood of engaging in multiple health-risk behaviours reported poorer mental health, particularly as it relates to stress. Although these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the 28% response rate, they do suggest that interventions targeting specific student groups with similar patterning of multiple health-risk behaviours may be needed.

Role of socio-economic and reproductive factors in the risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Magyari, M

2015-01-01

The incidence of multiple sclerosis is increasing in Danish women. Their risk of developing multiple sclerosis has more than doubled in 25 years while it has remained virtually unchanged for men. The explanation for these epidemiological changes should be sought in the environment as they are too rapid to be explained by gene alterations. We investigated the effect of numerous biological social physical and chemical environmental exposures in different periods of life. These data were available from population-based registries and were used in a case-control approach. This study database included all multiple sclerosis cases (n = 1403) from the Danish MS Registry with clinical onset between 2000 and 2004 as well as 35,045 controls drawn by random from the Danish Civil Registration System and matched by sex year of birth and residential municipality at the reference year. Having newborn children reduced the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) in women but not in men. Childbirths reduced the risk of MS by about 46% during the following 5 years. Even pregnancies terminated early had a protective effect on the risk of developing MS suggesting a temporary immunosuppression during pregnancy. Our data on social behaviour regarding educational level income and relationship stability did not indicate reverse causality. A greater likelihood to be exposed to common infections did not show any effect on the risk of MS neither in puberty nor in adulthood. Socio-economic status and lifestyle expressed in educational level and sanitary conditions in youth were not associated with the risk of MS. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiple Human Papilloma Virus Infections and Their Impact on the Development of High-Risk Cervical Lesions.

PubMed

Salazar, Katrina L; Zhou, Haijun Steve; Xu, Jiaqiong; Peterson, Leif E; Schwartz, Mary R; Mody, Dina R; Ge, Yimin

2015-01-01

Individuals are often infected with multiple genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV) simultaneously, but the role these infections play in the development of cervical disease is not well established. This study aimed to determine the association of multiple HPV infections with high-risk cervical lesions (hrCLs). HPV genotyping was performed on 798 SurePath specimens collected between December 1, 2009, and April 30, 2011. The cases were classified as hrCL (n = 90) or non-hrCL (n = 708) based on cytology diagnoses. The association between hrCL and HPV infection patterns was analyzed. Multiple HPV infections were frequently encountered (38.2%) in the cohort. Increased frequency of hrCLs was associated with a single high-risk HPV (hrHPV) infection. An additive or synergistic effect was not observed for hrCL in multiple HPV infections. The hrCL rates appeared to decrease in various patterns of multiple HPV infections, but the reduction was not statistically significant. Multiple HPV infections are common with no additive or synergistic effect on the development of hrCL. Conversely, reduced hrCL rates were observed in various patterns of multiple HPV infections compared to their single-genotype infection counterparts, suggestive of possible intergenotypic competition or more effective immune response triggered by multiple infections. Further studies in larger cohorts are needed. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

77 FR 59139 - Prompt Corrective Action, Requirements for Insurance, and Promulgation of NCUA Rules and Regulations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... threshold is used to define a ``complex'' credit union for determining whether risk-based net worth... credit union (FICU) is subject to certain interest rate risk rule requirements. \\1\\ IRPS 03-2, 68 FR... multiple applications, while avoiding undue risk to the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF...

Caries risk assessment in schoolchildren - a form based on Cariogram® software

PubMed Central

CABRAL, Renata Nunes; HILGERT, Leandro Augusto; FABER, Jorge; LEAL, Soraya Coelho

2014-01-01

Identifying caries risk factors is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. The Cariogram® software provides this analysis, and protocols simplifying the method were suggested. Objectives The aim of this study was to determine whether a newly developed Caries Risk Assessment (CRA) form based on the Cariogram® software could classify schoolchildren according to their caries risk and to evaluate relationships between caries risk and the variables in the form. Material and Methods 150 schoolchildren aged 5 to 7 years old were included in this survey. Caries prevalence was obtained according to International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II. Information for filling in the form based on Cariogram® was collected clinically and from questionnaires sent to parents. Linear regression and a forward stepwise multiple regression model were applied to correlate the variables included in the form with the caries risk. Results Caries prevalence, in primary dentition, including enamel and dentine carious lesions was 98.6%, and 77.3% when only dentine lesions were considered. Eighty-six percent of the children were classified as at moderate caries risk. The forward stepwise multiple regression model result was significant (R2=0.904; p<0.00001), showing that the most significant factors influencing caries risk were caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources. Conclusion The use of the form based on the Cariogram® software enabled classification of the schoolchildren at low, moderate and high caries risk. Caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources are the variables that were shown to be highly correlated with caries risk. PMID:25466473

Optimization and development of stable w/o/w cosmetic multiple emulsions by means of the Quality by Design approach.

PubMed

Kovács, A; Erős, I; Csóka, I

2016-04-01

The aim of our present work was to develop stable water-in-oil-in-water (w/o/w) cosmetic multiple emulsions that are proper for cosmetic use and can also be applied on the skin as pharmaceutical vehicles by means of Quality by Design (QbD) concept. This product design concept consists of a risk assessment step and also the 'predetermination' of the critical material attributes and process parameters of a stable multiple emulsion system. We have set up the hypothesis that the stability of multiple emulsions can be improved by the development based on such systematic planning - making a map of critical product parameters - so their industrial usage can be increased. The risk assessment and the determination of critical physical-chemical stability parameters of w/o/w multiple emulsions to define critical control points were performed by means of quality tools and the leanqbd(™) (QbD Works LLC, Fremont, CA, U.S.A.) software. Critical materials and process parameters: Based on the results of preformulation experiments, three factors, namely entrapped active agent, preparation methodology and shear rate, were found to be highly critical factors for critical quality attributes (CQAs) and for stability, whereas the nature of oil was found a medium level risk factor. The results of the risk assessment are the following: (i) droplet structure and size distribution should be evaluated together to be able to predict the stability issues, (ii) the presence of entrapped active agents had a great impact on droplet structure, (iii) the viscosity curves represent the structural changes during storage, if the decrease in relative viscosity is >15% the emulsion disintegrates, and (iv) it is enough to use the shear rate between 34g and 116g relative centrifugal force (RCF). CQAs: By risk assessment, we discovered that four factors should be considered to be high-risk variables as compared to others: droplet size, droplet structure, viscosity and multiple character were found to be highly critical attributes. The preformulation experiment is the part of a development plan. On the basis of these results, the control strategy can be defined and a stable multiple emulsion can be ensured that meets the relevant stakeholders' quality expectations. © 2015 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Reducing economic risk in areally anisotropic formations with multiple-lateral horizontal wells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, J.; Economides, M.J.; Frick, T.P.

1995-12-31

Well orientation is critical to horizontal well performance in areally anisotropic reservoirs. A horizontal well, drilled normal to the direction of maximum permeability, will have higher productivity than one drilled in any other arbitrary direction. Currently, horizontal permeability magnitudes and even indications of direction are rarely measured in the field. Based on well performance modeling and economic evaluation, this study attempts to determine the relative attractiveness of horizontal wells with multiple-laterals. The work exposes the economic risk in ignoring horizontal permeability magnitudes and directions and demonstrates the importance of adequate reservoir testing. A new rationalization for multiple-lateral horizontal wells ismore » the reduction of the economic risk associated with poor reservoir characterization in areally anisotropic formations while increasing the incremental net present value (NPV) over single-horizontal wells.« less

The Changing Landscape of Smoldering Multiple Myeloma: A European Perspective

PubMed Central

Fernández de Larrea, Carlos; Leleu, Xavier; Heusschen, Roy; Zojer, Niklas; Decaux, Olivier; Kastritis, Efstathios; Minnema, Monique; Jurczyszyn, Artur; Beguin, Yves; Wäsch, Ralph; Palumbo, Antonio; Dimopoulos, Meletios; Mateos, Maria Victoria; Ludwig, Heinz; Engelhardt, Monika

2016-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic clonal plasma cell disorder and bridges monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance to multiple myeloma (MM), based on higher levels of circulating monoclonal immunoglobulin and bone marrow plasmocytosis without end-organ damage. Until a Spanish study reported fewer MM-related events and better overall survival among patients with high-risk SMM treated with lenalidomide and dexamethasone, prior studies had failed to show improved survival with earlier intervention, although a reduction in skeletal-related events (without any impact on disease progression) has been described with bisphosphonate use. Risk factors have now been defined, and a subset of ultra-high-risk patients have been reclassified by the International Myeloma Working Group as MM, and thus will require optimal MM treatment, based on biomarkers that identify patients with a >80% risk of progression. The number of these redefined patients is small (∼10%), but important to unravel, because their risk of progression to overt MM is substantial (≥80% within 2 years). Patients with a high-risk cytogenetic profile are not yet considered for early treatment, because groups are heterogeneous and risk factors other than cytogenetics are deemed to weight higher. Because patients with ultra-high-risk SMM are now considered as MM and may be treated as such, concerns exist that earlier therapy may increase the risk of selecting resistant clones and induce side effects and costs. Therefore, an even more accurate identification of patients who would benefit from interventions needs to be performed, and clinical judgment and careful discussion of pros and cons of treatment initiation need to be undertaken. For the majority of SMM patients, the standard of care remains observation until development of symptomatic MM occurs, encouraging participation in ongoing and upcoming SMM/early MM clinical trials, as well as consideration of bisphosphonate use in patients with early bone loss. Implications for Practice: Smoldering multiple myeloma is an early stage of myeloma disease and is diagnosed before any symptoms occur. Recent research has redefined the diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma, offering new insights into testing and classification of this malignancy. Risk factors have now been defined and three biomarkers have been validated that are able to identify patients presenting a high risk of progression toward a symptomatic disease. These biomarkers will help physicians to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from optimal treatment. This article summarizes the views of a European panel of hematologists on the implicated changes in patient care. PMID:26921288

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented. PMID:28248969

Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling in Cumulative Risk Assessment for N-Methyl Carbamate Insecticides

EPA Science Inventory

Human exposure to xenobiotics may occur through multiple pathways and routes of entry punctuated by exposure intervals throughout a work or leisure day. Exposure to a single environmental chemical along multiple pathways and routes (aggregate exposure) may have an influence on an...

Is This Kid a Likely Experimenter or a Likely Persister? An Analysis of Individual-Level and Family-Level Risk Factors Predicting Multiple Offending Among a Group of Adjudicated Youth.

PubMed

Buker, Hasan; Erbay, Ayhan

2018-02-01

To implement effective diversion programs and determine for a well-suited intervention strategy, ascertaining who, among the adjudicated youth, is more likely to involve in multiple offending, rather than desisting after an initial delinquent behavior, is of great significance. The overall objective of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the existing knowledge on assessing the risks for multiple offending during juvenile adjudication processes. In this regard, this study examined the predicting powers of several individual-level and family-level risk factors on multiple offending during adolescence, based on a data set derived from court-ordered social examination reports (SERs) on 400 adjudicated youth in Turkey. Two binomial regression models were implemented to test the predictor values of various risk factors from these two domains. Results indicated the following as significant predictors of multiple offending among the subjects: younger age of onset in delinquency, dropping out of school, having delinquent/drug abusing (risky) friends, being not able to share problems with the family, increased number of siblings, and having a domestically migrated family. Conclusively, these findings were compared with the existing literature, and the policy implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.

PubMed

Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael

2015-05-01

A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Distinct encoding of risk and value in economic choice between multiple risky options☆

PubMed Central

Wright, Nicholas D.; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Neural encoding of value-based stimuli is suggested to involve representations of summary statistics, including risk and expected value (EV). A more complex, but ecologically more common, context is when multiple risky options are evaluated together. However, it is unknown whether encoding related to option evaluation in these situations involves similar principles. Here we employed fMRI during a task that parametrically manipulated EV and risk in two simultaneously presented lotteries, both of which contained either gains or losses. We found representations of EV in medial prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, an encoding that was dependent on which option was chosen (i.e. chosen and unchosen EV) and whether the choice was over gains or losses. Parietal activity reflected whether the riskier or surer option was selected, whilst activity in a network of regions that also included parietal cortex reflected both combined risk and difference in risk for the two options. Our findings provide support for the idea that summary statistics underpin a representation of value-based stimuli, and further that these summary statistics undergo distinct forms of encoding. PMID:23684860

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps.

PubMed

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-03-04

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps

PubMed Central

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-01-01

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system. PMID:28267154

Flood hazard management from a coevolutionary perspective: exposure and policy response in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to hydrological hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to flood hazards (river floods, torrential floods and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the 1919-2012 period. The assessment is based on two different datasets, (a) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (b) information on building types combined from different national level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in the response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that while some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk, and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies towards an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Smoldering multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

Landgren, Ola; Mateos, María-Victoria

2015-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic clonal plasma cell disorder. SMM is distinguished from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance by a much higher risk of progression to multiple myeloma (MM). There have been major advances in the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of SMM in the last few years. These include a revised disease definition, identification of several new prognostic factors, a classification based on underlying cytogenetic changes, and new treatment options. Importantly, a subset of patients previously considered SMM is now reclassified as MM on the basis of biomarkers identifying patients with an ≥80% risk of progression within 2 years. SMM has assumed greater significance on the basis of recent trials showing that early therapy can be potentially beneficial to patients. As a result, there is a need to accurately diagnose and risk-stratify patients with SMM, including routine incorporation of modern imaging and laboratory techniques. In this review, we outline current concepts in diagnosis and risk stratification of SMM, and provide specific recommendations on the management of SMM. PMID:25838344

Management of high-risk Myeloma: an evidence-based review of treatment strategies.

PubMed

Lehners, Nicola; Hayden, Patrick J; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Raab, Marc-Steffen

2016-08-01

Despite the progress made in the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma over recent decades, a significant cohort with high-risk disease as defined by specific clinical and genetic criteria continue to respond poorly to standard treatment. These patients represent a particular challenge to the treating physician and require early identification as well as personalized treatment strategies. In this review, we discuss the prognostic impact of adverse clinical, radiological and genetic factors, evaluate available scoring systems and highlight key aspects of the therapeutic management of high-risk myeloma. MEDLINE and recent scientific meetings' databases were searched for the keywords 'high-risk' and 'multiple myeloma' and relevant studies relating to both diagnostic and therapeutic approaches were identified. Expert commentary: A case is made for intensive induction using combinations of novel agents, early high-dose therapy supported by autologous stem cell transplantation and the widespread use of maintenance therapies. Novel therapeutic options, especially in the field of immunotherapy, are currently explored in clinical trials and have the potential to further improve outcomes for patients with high-risk multiple myeloma.

Sequencing of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a theoretical approach to optimizing treatment.

PubMed

Grand'Maison, Francois; Yeung, Michael; Morrow, Sarah A; Lee, Liesly; Emond, Francois; Ward, Brian J; Laneuville, Pierre; Schecter, Robyn

2018-04-18

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease which usually begins in young adulthood and is a lifelong condition. Individuals with MS experience physical and cognitive disability resulting from inflammation and demyelination in the central nervous system. Over the past decade, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved for the management of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), which is the most prevalent phenotype. The chronic nature of the disease and the multiple treatment options make benefit-risk-based sequencing of therapy essential to ensure optimal care. The efficacy and short- and long-term risks of treatment differ for each DMT due to their different mechanism of action on the immune system. While transitioning between DMTs, in addition to immune system effects, factors such as age, disease duration and severity, disability status, monitoring requirements, preference for the route of administration, and family planning play an important role. Determining a treatment strategy is therefore challenging as it requires careful consideration of the differences in efficacy, safety and tolerability, while at the same time minimizing risks of immune modulation. In this review, we discuss a sequencing approach for treating RRMS, with importance given to the long-term risks and individual preference when devising a treatment plan. Evidence-based strategies to counter breakthrough disease are also addressed.

Sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behavior as risk factors for human papillomavirus infection in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Alhamlan, F S; Khayat, H H; Ramisetty-Mikler, S; Al-Muammar, T A; Tulbah, A M; Al-Badawi, I A; Kurdi, W I; Tulbah, M I; Alkhenizan, A A; Hussain, A N; Ahmed, M; Al-Ahdal, M N

2016-05-01

To determine the prevalence and the sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behavior risk factors for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in a hospital-based cohort of women in Saudi Arabia. Cervical specimens and questionnaire data were collected from women attending clinics in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Cervical specimens were examined for abnormal cytology using a standard Pap test and for the presence of HPV-DNA using PCR and reverse line blot hybridization tests. Approximately 73% of the 400 women tested were Saudi nationals. Nearly 50% were under 40 years old (range 22-80 years, mean±standard deviation 41.20±10.43 years). Approximately 17% of the women were HPV-positive. The most commonly detected HPV types were HPV-18 (34%) and HPV-16 (19%), with multiple infections detected in 10% of positive specimens. Multivariate analyses revealed that smoking and multiple partners were significant risk factors for HPV infection (p<0.01). Because of societal challenges and an unsubstantiated assumption of low HPV prevalence, few studies have examined sociodemographic characteristics or sexual behaviors associated with HPV in Saudi women. However, a high prevalence of HPV infection was found, with smoking and multiple partners as significant risk factors, in this hospital-based cohort of predominantly Saudi women. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Knowledge, attitude and practices of women in maldives related to the risk factors, prevention and early detection of cervical cancer.

PubMed

Basu, Partha; Hassan, Salma; Fileeshia, Fathmath; Mohamed, Sizna; Nahoodha, Aminath; Shiuna, Aminath; Sulaiman, Asma Ibrahim; Najeeb, Nazeera; Saleem, Fathmath Jeehan

2014-01-01

A population-based cervical cancer screening program using visual inspection with acetic acid was launched in Maldives in 2014. Our study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices of women in relation to risk factors of cervical cancer, early detection of the disease and its prevention. The questionnaire based survey was conducted among 20 to 50 year old women, systematically sampled to represent three regions of Maldives. Trained investigators interviewed a total of 2,845 women at home. The prevalence of the risk factors of cervical cancer like early age at marriage and childbirth, multiple marriages, multiple marriages of the husbands, and multiple pregnancies was high. More women knew about breast cancer than cervical cancer. Even among the small number of women who knew of cervical cancer, only 34.6% had the knowledge of at least one early symptom. Very few women knew that the cancer could be prevented by any test. Only 6.2% of the women reported having ever undergone a Pap smear. Many women had the misconception that cervical cancer was infectious. In Maldives the younger women have high literacy rate due to the policy of universal free education and those with higher levels of education had improved knowledge of cervical cancer and its risk factors. The prevalence of risk factors also reduced with improved literacy. Awareness about risk factors and prevention of cervical cancer is limited among Maldivian women in spite of having high exposure to some of the risk factors. A universal literacy program in the country has helped to improve the knowledge of cervical cancer prevention and to reduce the exposure to various risk factors in the younger population.

Development of good modelling practice for phsiologically based pharmacokinetic models for use in risk assessment: The first steps

EPA Science Inventory

The increasing use of tissue dosimetry estimated using pharmacokinetic models in chemical risk assessments in multiple countries necessitates the need to develop internationally recognized good modelling practices. These practices would facilitate sharing of models and model eva...

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

Toward the Development of Integrative Risk-Adjusted Measures of Quality Using Large Clinical Data Bases: The Case of Anesthesia Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Steven T.

1992-01-01

The concept of risk-adjusted measures of quality is discussed, and a methodology is proposed for risk-adjusting and integrating multiple adverse outcomes of anesthesia services into measures for quality assurance and quality improvement programs. Although designed for a new anesthesiology database, the methods should apply to other health…

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The contribution of parenting practices and parent emotion factors in children at risk for disruptive behavior disorders.

PubMed

Duncombe, Melissa E; Havighurst, Sophie S; Holland, Kerry A; Frankling, Emma J

2012-10-01

The goal of this study was to examine the impact of different parenting characteristics on child disruptive behavior and emotional regulation among a sample of at-risk children. The sample consisted of 373 Australian 5- to 9-year-old children who were screened for serious behavior problems. Seven parenting variables based on self-report were evaluated, involving parenting practices, emotion beliefs and behaviors, emotion expressiveness, and mental health. Outcome variables based on parent/teacher report were child disruptive behavior problems and emotion regulatory ability. When entered simultaneously in a multiple regression analysis, inconsistent discipline, negative parental emotional expressiveness, and parent mental health demonstrated the strongest relationship to disruptive behavior problems and problems with emotion regulation. The data presented here elucidate multiple risk pathways to disruptive behavior disorders and can inform the design of prevention and early intervention programs.

A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

PubMed

Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

2014-05-01

Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk-adapted approach. Therapeutic study, level IV. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Multiple violence victimisation associated with sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours in Swedish youth.

PubMed

Blom, Helena; Högberg, Ulf; Olofsson, Niclas; Danielsson, Ingela

2016-01-01

To address the associations between emotional, physical and sexual violence, specifically multiple violence victimisation, and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours in youth, as well as possible gender differences. A cross-sectional population-based survey among sexually experienced youth using a questionnaire with validated questions on emotional, physical, and sexual violence victimisation, sociodemographics, health risk behaviours, and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours. Proportions, unadjusted/adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The participants comprised 1192 female and 1021 male students aged 15 to 22 years. The females had experienced multiple violence (victimisation with two or three types of violence) more often than the males (21% vs. 16%). The associations between multiple violence victimisation and sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours were consistent for both genders. Experience of/involvement in pregnancy yielded adjusted ORs of 2.4 (95% CI 1.5-3.7) for females and 2.1 (95% CI 1.3-3.4) for males, and early age at first intercourse 2.2 (95% CI 1.6-3.1) for females and 1.9 (95% CI 1.2-3.0) for males. No significantly raised adjusted ORs were found for non-use of contraceptives in young men or young women, or for chlamydia infection in young men. Several types of sexual ill health and sexual risk behaviours are strongly associated with multiple violence victimisation in both genders. This should be taken into consideration when counselling young people and addressing their sexual and reproductive health.

European multiple sclerosis risk variants in the south Asian population.

PubMed

Pandit, Lekha; Ban, Maria; Beecham, Ashley Harris; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; D'Cunha, Anitha; Malli, Chaitra; Malik, Omar

2016-10-01

In less than a decade, genomewide association studies have identified over 100 single-nucleotide variants that are associated with increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis. However, since these studies have focused almost exclusively on European populations, it is unclear what role these variants might play in determining risk in other ethnic groups. To assess the effects of European multiple sclerosis-associated risk variants in the south Asian population. Using a combination of chip-based genotyping and next-generation sequencing, we have assessed 109 European-associated variants in a total of 270 cases and 555 controls from the south Asian population. We found that two-thirds of the tested variants (72/109) showed over representation of the European risk allele in south Asian cases (p < 0.0003). In the rest of the Immunochip array, the most associated variant was rs7318477 which maps close to TNFSF13B, the gene for the B-cell-related protein BAFF. Our data indicate substantial overlap in genetic risk architecture between Europeans and south Asians and suggest that the aetiology of the disease may be largely independent of ethnicity. © The Author(s), 2016.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

Study of the propensity for hemorrhage in Hispanic Americans with stroke.

PubMed

Frey, James L; Jahnke, Heidi K; Goslar, Pamela W

2008-01-01

Multiple sources document a higher proportion of intraparenchymal hemorrhage (HEM) in Hispanic (HIS) than white (WHI) patients with stroke. We sought an explanation for this phenomenon through analysis of multiple variables in our hospital-based stroke population. We performed univariate and multivariate analysis of risk factors in our HIS and WHI patients with stroke to identify differences that might account for a greater propensity for HEM in HIS patients. Multivariate analysis disclosed that the risk of HEM correlated significantly with untreated hypertension (HTN), HIS ethnicity, and heavy alcohol intake. A negative correlation was found for hyperlipidemia and diabetes. Our HIS patients with stroke had a greater prevalence of untreated HTN and heavy alcohol intake, with HIS men being at greatest risk. HIS patients with stroke in our hospital-based population appear relatively more prone to HEM than do WHI patients. This risk correlates with a greater likelihood of having untreated HTN and heavy alcohol intake, more so for HIS men. The explanation appears to be a relative lack of health awareness and involvement in our health care system. The possibility that HIS ethnicity itself constitutes a biological risk factor for HEM remains a matter of speculation. Validation of this work with community data should lead to remediation through a community-based effort.

Put the Family Back in Family Health History: A Multiple-Informant Approach.

PubMed

Lin, Jielu; Marcum, Christopher S; Myers, Melanie F; Koehly, Laura M

2017-05-01

An accurate family health history is essential for individual risk assessment. This study uses a multiple-informant approach to examine whether family members have consistent perceptions of shared familial risk for four common chronic conditions (heart disease, Type 2 diabetes, high cholesterol, and hypertension) and whether accounting for inconsistency in family health history reports leads to more accurate risk assessment. In 2012-2013, individual and family health histories were collected from 127 adult informants of 45 families in the Greater Cincinnati Area. Pedigrees were linked within each family to assess inter-informant (in)consistency regarding common biological family member's health history. An adjusted risk assessment based on pooled pedigrees of multiple informants was evaluated to determine whether it could more accurately identify individuals affected by common chronic conditions, using self-reported disease diagnoses as a validation criterion. Analysis was completed in 2015-2016. Inter-informant consistency in family health history reports was 54% for heart disease, 61% for Type 2 diabetes, 43% for high cholesterol, and 41% for hypertension. Compared with the unadjusted risk assessment, the adjusted risk assessment correctly identified an additional 7%-13% of the individuals who had been diagnosed, with a ≤2% increase in cases that were predicted to be at risk but had not been diagnosed. Considerable inconsistency exists in individual knowledge of their family health history. Accounting for such inconsistency can, nevertheless, lead to a more accurate genetic risk assessment tool. A multiple-informant approach is potentially powerful when coupled with technology to support clinical decisions. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessment of human health impact from exposure to multiple air pollutants in China based on satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tao; Wang, Wen; Ciren, Pubu; Zhu, Yan

2016-10-01

Assessment of human health impact caused by air pollution is crucial for evaluating environmental hazards. In this paper, concentrations of six air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO) were first derived from satellite observations, and then the overall human health risks in China caused by multiple air pollutants were assessed using an aggregated health risks index. Unlike traditional approach for human health risks assessment, which relied on the in-situ air pollution measurements, the spatial distribution of aggregated human health risks in China were obtained using satellite observations in this research. It was indicated that the remote sensing data have advantages over in-situ data in accessing human health impact caused by air pollution.

Design of a randomized controlled trial for multiple cancer risk behaviors among Spanish-speaking Mexican-origin smokers.

PubMed

Castro, Yessenia; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Fernandez, Maria E; Strong, Larkin L; Eakin, Elizabeth G; Resnicow, Ken; Li, Yisheng; Wetter, David W

2013-03-18

Smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity account for as much as 60% of cancer risk. Latinos experience profound disparities in health behaviors, as well as the cancers associated with them. Currently, there is a dearth of controlled trials addressing these health behaviors among Latinos. Further, to the best of our knowledge, no studies address all three behaviors simultaneously, are culturally sensitive, and are guided by formative work with the target population. Latinos represent 14% of the U.S. population and are the fastest growing minority group in the country. Efforts to intervene on these important lifestyle factors among Latinos may accelerate the elimination of cancer-related health disparities. The proposed study will evaluate the efficacy of an evidence-based and theoretically-driven Motivation And Problem Solving (MAPS) intervention, adapted and culturally-tailored for reducing cancer risk related to smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity among high-risk Mexican-origin smokers who are overweight/obese (n = 400). Participants will be randomly assigned to one of two groups: Health Education (HE) or MAPS (HE + up to 18 MAPS counseling calls over 18 months). Primary outcomes are smoking status, servings of fruits and vegetables, and both self-reported and objectively measured physical activity. Outcome assessments will occur at baseline, 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months. The current study will contribute to a very limited evidence base on multiple risk factor intervention studies on Mexican-origin individuals and has the potential to inform both future research and practice related to reducing cancer risk disparities. An effective program targeting multiple cancer risk behaviors modeled after chronic care programs has the potential to make a large public health impact because of the dearth of evidence-based interventions for Latinos and the extended period of support that is provided in such a program. National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials Registry # NCT01504919.

The Committed Intimate Partnerships of Incarcerated African-American Men: Implications for Sexual HIV Transmission Risk and Prevention Opportunities.

PubMed

Khan, Maria R; El-Bassel, Nabila; Golin, Carol E; Scheidell, Joy D; Adimora, Adaora A; Coatsworth, Ashley M; Hu, Hui; Judon-Monk, Selena; Medina, Katie P; Wohl, David A

2017-10-01

Incarceration is thought to influence HIV transmission by disrupting partnerships that provide support and protect against sex risk-taking. Current correctional facility-based family-strengthening programs focus on marital partnerships, a minority of inmates' partnerships. Research on the sex partnerships of incarcerated African-American men and the types of partnerships most likely to protect against HIV-related sex risk is limited. Improved understanding can inform expansion of correctional facility-based family-strengthening programs to a greater proportion of protective partnerships and HIV risk reduction programs to partnerships vulnerable to sex risk. Project DISRUPT is a cohort study of African-American men being released from prison in North Carolina who were in committed heterosexual partnerships at prison entry. Using baseline survey data (N = 189), we conducted latent class analysis (LCA) to identify subgroups of participants with distinct relationship profiles and measured associations between relationship characteristics and multiple partnerships of inmates and their partners in the six months before incarceration. LCA indicated a two-class solution, with relationships distinguished by satisfaction/stability (satisfied/stable class: 58.0%; dissatisfied/unstable class: 42.0%); each class had comparable relationship length and levels of marriage and cohabitation. Dissatisfied/unstable relationships were associated with multiple partnerships among participants (AOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.50, 5.72) and partners (AOR 4.95, 95% CI 1.68, 14.58). Satisfaction indicators-versus length, marriage, or cohabitation-were the strongest independent correlates of inmates' and partners' multiple partnerships. Pre-incarceration economic deprivation, mental disorder symptoms, substance use, and violence in relationships were associated with dissatisfaction/instability. Prison-based programs designed to maintain healthy partnerships, strengthen relationship skills, and reduce HIV risk-taking and violence in relationships are warranted and should be targeted to both marital and nonmarital partnerships. Programming also should address the poverty, mental illness, and substance use factors that threaten relationship satisfaction/stability and increase HIV risk.

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

New technologies and approaches in toxicity testing and risk assessment (ESOT)

EPA Science Inventory

The release of the National Research Council’s Report “Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy” in 2007 initiated a broad-based movement in the toxicology community to re-think how toxicity testing and risk assessment are performed. Multiple efforts in the ...

Taking a Risk to Develop Reflective Skills in Business Practitioners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackay, Margaret; Tymon, Alex

2016-01-01

Critical reflection can support alternative decision-making in business practice. This paper examines the effectiveness of a risk-based pedagogy to engage practitioners in reflective thinking. Educators adopting a radical pedagogy in professionally accredited programmes face multiple challenges: learners often resist the process of self-reflection…

Genotype-Based Association Mapping of Complex Diseases: Gene-Environment Interactions with Multiple Genetic Markers and Measurement Error in Environmental Exposures

PubMed Central

Lobach, Irvna; Fan, Ruzone; Carroll, Raymond T.

2011-01-01

With the advent of dense single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, population-based association studies have become the major tools for identifying human disease genes and for fine gene mapping of complex traits. We develop a genotype-based approach for association analysis of case-control studies of gene-environment interactions in the case when environmental factors are measured with error and genotype data are available on multiple genetic markers. To directly use the observed genotype data, we propose two genotype-based models: genotype effect and additive effect models. Our approach offers several advantages. First, the proposed risk functions can directly incorporate the observed genotype data while modeling the linkage disequihbrium information in the regression coefficients, thus eliminating the need to infer haplotype phase. Compared with the haplotype-based approach, an estimating procedure based on the proposed methods can be much simpler and significantly faster. In addition, there is no potential risk due to haplotype phase estimation. Further, by fitting the proposed models, it is possible to analyze the risk alleles/variants of complex diseases, including their dominant or additive effects. To model measurement error, we adopt the pseudo-likelihood method by Lobach et al. [2008]. Performance of the proposed method is examined using simulation experiments. An application of our method is illustrated using a population-based case-control study of association between calcium intake with the risk of colorectal adenoma development. PMID:21031455

The Availability and Utility of Services to Address Risk Factors for Recidivism among Justice-Involved Veterans

PubMed Central

Blonigen, Daniel M.; Rodriguez, Allison L.; Manfredi, Luisa; Britt, Jessica; Nevedal, Andrea; Finlay, Andrea K.; Rosenthal, Joel; Smelson, David; Timko, Christine

2016-01-01

The availability and utility of services to address recidivism risk factors among justice-involved veterans is unknown. We explored these issues through qualitative interviews with 63 Specialists from the Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) Veterans Justice Programs. To guide the interviews, we utilized the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model of offender rehabilitation. Specialists reported that justice-involved veterans generally have access to services to address most RNR-based risk factors (substance abuse; lack of positive school/work involvement; family/marital dysfunction; lack of prosocial activities/interests), but have less access to services targeting risk factors of antisocial tendencies and associates and empirically-based treatments for recidivism in VA. Peer-based services, motivational interviewing/cognitive-behavioral therapy, and Veterans Treatment Courts were perceived as useful to address multiple risk factors. These findings highlight potential gaps in provision of evidence-based care to address recidivism among justice-involved veterans, as well as promising policy-based solutions that may have widespread impact on reducing recidivism in this population. PMID:26924887

Multilevel joint competing risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

2017-09-01

Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Gene expression profiling in multiple myeloma--reporting of entities, risk, and targets in clinical routine.

PubMed

Meissner, Tobias; Seckinger, Anja; Rème, Thierry; Hielscher, Thomas; Möhler, Thomas; Neben, Kai; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Klein, Bernard; Hose, Dirk

2011-12-01

Multiple myeloma is an incurable malignant plasma cell disease characterized by survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Assessment of risk and underlying molecular heterogeneity can be excellently done by gene expression profiling (GEP), but its way into clinical routine is hampered by the lack of an appropriate reporting tool and the integration with other prognostic factors into a single "meta" risk stratification. The GEP-report (GEP-R) was built as an open-source software developed in R for gene expression reporting in clinical practice using Affymetrix microarrays. GEP-R processes new samples by applying a documentation-by-value strategy to the raw data to be able to assign thresholds and grouping algorithms defined on a reference cohort of 262 patients with multiple myeloma. Furthermore, we integrated expression-based and conventional prognostic factors within one risk stratification (HM-metascore). The GEP-R comprises (i) quality control, (ii) sample identity control, (iii) biologic classification, (iv) risk stratification, and (v) assessment of target genes. The resulting HM-metascore is defined as the sum over the weighted factors gene expression-based risk-assessment (UAMS-, IFM-score), proliferation, International Staging System (ISS) stage, t(4;14), and expression of prognostic target genes (AURKA, IGF1R) for which clinical grade inhibitors exist. The HM-score delineates three significantly different groups of 13.1%, 72.1%, and 14.7% of patients with a 6-year survival rate of 89.3%, 60.6%, and 18.6%, respectively. GEP reporting allows prospective assessment of risk and target gene expression and integration of current prognostic factors in clinical routine, being customizable about novel parameters or other cancer entities. ©2011 AACR.

Prediction of HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors among Disadvantaged African American Adults using a Syndemic Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Nehl, Eric J.; Klein, Hugh; Sterk, Claire E.; Elifson, Kirk W.

2015-01-01

The focus of this paper is on HIV sexual risk taking among a community-based sample of disadvantaged African American adults. The objective is to examine multiple factors associated with sexual HIV risk behaviors within a syndemic conceptual framework. Face-to-face, computer-assisted, structured interviews were conducted with 1,535 individuals in Atlanta, Georgia. Bivariate analyses indicated a high level of relationships among the HIV sexual risks and other factors. Results from multivariate models indicated that gender, sexual orientation, relationship status, self-esteem, condom use self-efficacy, sex while the respondent was high, and sex while the partner was high were significant predictors of condomless sex. Additionally, a multivariate additive model of risk behaviors indicated that the number of health risks significantly increased the risk of condomless sex. This intersection of HIV sexual risk behaviors and their associations with various other behavioral, socio-demographics, and psychological functioning factors helps explain HIV risk-taking among this sample of African American adults and highlights the need for research and practice that accounts for multiple health behaviors and problems. PMID:26188618

Perception and risk factors for cervical cancer among women in northern Ghana.

PubMed

Opoku, Constance A; Browne, Edmund Nii Laryea; Spangenberg, Kathryn; Moyer, Cheryl; Kolbilla, David; Gold, Katherine J

2016-06-01

This study assessed the perception of risk of cervical cancer and existence of risk factors for cervical cancer based on five known risk factors among women attending the Tamale Teaching Hospital in Tamale, Ghana. A consecutive sample of 300 women was interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to inquire about risk factors and perception of risk of cervical cancer. Specific risk factors that were explored included early coitarche, multiple sexual partners, polygamous relationships, history of smoking, and having a current partner who had multiple sexual partners. Sixty-one per cent of women reported that they had no personal risk for cervical cancer. 27% of respondents were in polygamous relationships, and of those, more than half didn't think they were at an increased risk of cervical cancer. 2 women had a total of ≥ 5 sexual partners in their lifetime and neither believed they were at any risk for cervical cancer. 23% said their current partner had had at least 2 sexual partners in his lifetime, and of those, (61%) thought they were at no risk for cervical cancer. 46% of respondents reported not having any of the risk factors listed in the study. 23% of respondents reported having one risk factor while 21% had two risk factors and 11% had three or more risk factors. Women's perception of personal risk for cervical cancer is lower than their actual risk based on the five behavioural risk factors assessed and a lack of knowledge of the personal factors for the disease. This project was supported by NIH Research Training Grant #R25 TW009345 funded by the Fogarty International Centre, in partnership with several NIH Institutes (NIMH, NIGMS, NHLBI, OAR and OWH).

Project START: Using a Multiple Intelligences Model in Identifying and Promoting Talent in High-Risk Students. Research Monograph 95136.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callahan, Carolyn M.; Tomlinson, Carol A.; Moon, Tonya R.; Tomchin, Ellen M.; Plucker, Jonathan A.

This monograph describes Project START (Support To Affirm Rising Talent), a three-year collaborative research effort to develop and apply gifted identification procedures based on Howard Gardner's (1983) theory of multiple intelligences. Specifically, the study attempted to: (1) develop identification procedures; (2) identify high-potential…

Characteristics of Interventions Targeting Multiple Lifestyle Risk Behaviours in Adult Populations: A Systematic Scoping Review

PubMed Central

King, Kristel; Meader, Nick; Wright, Kath; Graham, Hilary; Power, Christine; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Sowden, Amanda J.

2015-01-01

Background Modifiable lifestyle risk behaviours such as smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and alcohol misuse are the leading causes of major, non-communicable diseases worldwide. It is increasingly being recognised that interventions which target more than one risk behaviour may be an effective and efficient way of improving people’s lifestyles. To date, there has been no attempt to summarise the global evidence base for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours. Objective To identify and map the characteristics of studies evaluating multiple risk behaviour change interventions targeted at adult populations in any country. Methods Seven bibliographic databases were searched between January, 1990, and January/ May, 2013. Authors of protocols, conference abstracts, and other relevant articles were contacted. Study characteristics were extracted and inputted into Eppi-Reviewer 4. Results In total, 220 studies were included in the scoping review. Most were randomised controlled trials (62%) conducted in the United States (49%), and targeted diet and physical activity (56%) in people from general populations (14%) or subgroups of general populations (45%). Very few studies had been conducted in the Middle East (2%), Africa (0.5%), or South America (0.5%). There was also a scarcity of studies conducted among young adults (1%), or racial and minority ethnic populations (4%) worldwide. Conclusions Research is required to investigate the interrelationships of lifestyle risk behaviours in varying cultural contexts around the world. Cross-cultural development and evaluation of multiple risk behaviour change interventions is also needed, particularly in populations of young adults and racial and minority ethnic populations. PMID:25617783

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

PubMed Central

Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-01-01

Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

PubMed

Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-06-01

This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

The Global Landscape of Occupational Exposure Limits—Implementation of Harmonization Principles to Guide Limit Selection

PubMed Central

Deveau, M.; Chen, C-P; Johanson, G.; Krewski, D.; Maier, A.; Niven, K. J.; Ripple, S.; Schulte, P. A.; Silk, J.; Urbanus, J. H.; Zalk, D. M.; Niemeier, R. W.

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) serve as health-based benchmarks against which measured or estimated workplace exposures can be compared. In the years since the introduction of OELs to public health practice, both developed and developing countries have established processes for deriving, setting, and using OELs to protect workers exposed to hazardous chemicals. These processes vary widely, however, and have thus resulted in a confusing international landscape for identifying and applying such limits in workplaces. The occupational hygienist will encounter significant overlap in coverage among organizations for many chemicals, while other important chemicals have OELs developed by few, if any, organizations. Where multiple organizations have published an OEL, the derived value often varies considerably—reflecting differences in both risk policy and risk assessment methodology as well as access to available pertinent data. This article explores the underlying reasons for variability in OELs, and recommends the harmonization of risk-based methods used by OEL-deriving organizations. A framework is also proposed for the identification and systematic evaluation of OEL resources, which occupational hygienists can use to support risk characterization and risk management decisions in situations where multiple potentially relevant OELs exist. PMID:26099071

The Global Landscape of Occupational Exposure Limits--Implementation of Harmonization Principles to Guide Limit Selection.

PubMed

Deveau, M; Chen, C-P; Johanson, G; Krewski, D; Maier, A; Niven, K J; Ripple, S; Schulte, P A; Silk, J; Urbanus, J H; Zalk, D M; Niemeier, R W

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) serve as health-based benchmarks against which measured or estimated workplace exposures can be compared. In the years since the introduction of OELs to public health practice, both developed and developing countries have established processes for deriving, setting, and using OELs to protect workers exposed to hazardous chemicals. These processes vary widely, however, and have thus resulted in a confusing international landscape for identifying and applying such limits in workplaces. The occupational hygienist will encounter significant overlap in coverage among organizations for many chemicals, while other important chemicals have OELs developed by few, if any, organizations. Where multiple organizations have published an OEL, the derived value often varies considerably-reflecting differences in both risk policy and risk assessment methodology as well as access to available pertinent data. This article explores the underlying reasons for variability in OELs, and recommends the harmonization of risk-based methods used by OEL-deriving organizations. A framework is also proposed for the identification and systematic evaluation of OEL resources, which occupational hygienists can use to support risk characterization and risk management decisions in situations where multiple potentially relevant OELs exist.

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

EPA Science Inventory

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

The US EPA CompTox Chemistry Dashboard as a source of data to fill data gaps for chemical sources of risk

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical risk assessment is both time-consuming and difficult because it requires the assembly of data for chemicals generally distributed across multiple sources. The US EPA CompTox Chemistry Dashboard is a publicly accessible web-based application providing access to various da...

Benchmark Dose Analysis from Multiple Datasets: The Cumulative Risk Assessment for the N-Methyl Carbamate Pesticides

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s N-Methyl Carbamate (NMC) Cumulative Risk assessment was based on the effect on acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity of exposure to 10 NMC pesticides through dietary, drinking water, and residential exposures, assuming the effects of joint exposure to NMCs is dose-...

Candidate biomarker discovery and selection for ‘Granny Smith' superficial scald risk management and diagnosis, poster board

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Discovery of candidate biomarkers for superficial scald, a peel disorder that develops during storage of susceptible apple cultivars, is part of a larger project aimed at developing biomarker-based risk-management and diagnostic tools for multiple apple postharvest disorders (http://www.tfrec.wsu.ed...

Streets, drugs, and the economy of sex in the age of AIDS.

PubMed

Weeks, M R; Grier, M; Romero-Daza, N; Puglisi-Vasquez, M J; Singer, M

1998-01-01

Drug addicted women whose economic and social base is urban streets face limited options for income generation and multiple dangers of predation, assault, arrest, and illness. Exchanging sex for money or drugs offers one important source of income in this context. Yet the legal, social, and safety risks associated with these exchanges reduce the likelihood of regular safer sex practices during these encounters, thereby increasing the risk of HIV infection. Such conditions lead women engaged in sexual exchanges for money to varied and complex responses influenced by multiple and often contradictory pressures, both personal and contextual. Street-recruited women drug users in an AIDS prevention program in Hart-ford, Connecticut reported a range of condom use when engaging in sex for money exchanges. This paper explores their differences by ethnicity, economic resources, and drug use, and analyzes these and other factors that impact on street risks through sexual income generation. Surveys and in-depth interviews with drug-addicted women sex workers describe their various approaches to addressing multiple risks on the streets and suggest significant effort by women in these contexts to avoid the many risks, including HIV infection.

Joint Associations of Diet, Lifestyle, and Genes with Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Meyers, Kristin J; Liu, Zhe; Millen, Amy E; Iyengar, Sudha K; Blodi, Barbara A; Johnson, Elizabeth; Snodderly, D Max; Klein, Michael L; Gehrs, Karen M; Tinker, Lesley; Sarto, Gloria E; Robinson, Jennifer; Wallace, Robert B; Mares, Julie A

2015-11-01

Unhealthy lifestyles have been associated with increased odds for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Whether this association is modified by genetic risk for AMD is unknown and was investigated. Interactions between healthy lifestyles AMD risk genotypes were studied in relation to the prevalence of AMD, assessed 6 years later. Women 50 to 79 years of age in the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study with exposure and AMD data (n=1663). Healthy lifestyle scores (0-6 points) were assigned based on Healthy Eating Index scores, physical activity (metabolic equivalent of task hours/week), and smoking pack years assessed in 1994 and 1998. Genetic risk was based on Y402H in complement factor H (CFH) and A69S in age-related maculopathy susceptibility locus 2 (ARMS2). Additive and multiplicative interactions in odds ratios were assessed using the synergy index and a multiplicative interaction term, respectively. AMD presence and severity were assessed from grading of stereoscopic fundus photographs taken in 2001-2004. AMD was present in 337 women, 91% of whom had early AMD. The odds of AMD were 3.3 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-6.1) in women with both low healthy lifestyle score (0-2) and high-risk CFH genotype (CC), relative to those who had low genetic risk (TT) and high healthy lifestyle scores (4-6). There were no significant additive (synergy index [SI], 1.08; 95% CI, 0.70-1.67) or multiplicative (Pinteraction=0.94) interactions in the full sample. However, when limiting the sample to women with stable diets before AMD assessment (n=728) the odds for AMD associated with low healthy lifestyle scores and high-risk CFH genotype were strengthened (odds ratio, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.8-11.6) and the synergy index was significant (SI, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05-1.70). Adjusting for dietary lutein and zeaxanthin attenuated, and therefore partially explained, the joint association. There were no significant additive or multiplicative interactions for ARMS2 and lifestyle score. Having unhealthy lifestyles and 2 CFH risk alleles increased AMD risk (primarily in the early stages), in an or additive or greater (synergistic) manner. However, unhealthy lifestyles increased AMD risk regardless of AMD risk genotype. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b

PubMed Central

Cassano-Piché, A; Fan, M; Sabovitch, S; Masino, C; Easty, AC

2012-01-01

Background Minimal research has been conducted into the potential patient safety issues related to administering multiple intravenous (IV) infusions to a single patient. Previous research has highlighted that there are a number of related safety risks. In Phase 1a of this study, an analysis of 2 national incident-reporting databases (Institute for Safe Medical Practices Canada and United States Food and Drug Administration MAUDE) found that a high percentage of incidents associated with the administration of multiple IV infusions resulted in patient harm. Objectives The primary objectives of Phase 1b of this study were to identify safety issues with the potential to cause patient harm stemming from the administration of multiple IV infusions; and to identify how nurses are being educated on key principles required to safely administer multiple IV infusions. Data Sources and Review Methods A field study was conducted at 12 hospital clinical units (sites) across Ontario, and telephone interviews were conducted with program coordinators or instructors from both the Ontario baccalaureate nursing degree programs and the Ontario postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. Data were analyzed using Rasmussen’s 1997 Risk Management Framework and a Health Care Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Results Twenty-two primary patient safety issues were identified with the potential to directly cause patient harm. Seventeen of these (critical issues) were categorized into 6 themes. A cause-consequence tree was established to outline all possible contributing factors for each critical issue. Clinical recommendations were identified for immediate distribution to, and implementation by, Ontario hospitals. Future investigation efforts were planned for Phase 2 of the study. Limitations This exploratory field study identifies the potential for errors, but does not describe the direct observation of such errors, except in a few cases where errors were observed. Not all issues are known in advance, and the frequency of errors is too low to be observed in the time allotted and with the limited sample of observations. Conclusions The administration of multiple IV infusions to a single patient is a complex task with many potential associated patient safety risks. Improvements to infusion and infusion-related technology, education standards, clinical best practice guidelines, hospital policies, and unit work practices are required to reduce the risk potential. This report makes several recommendations to Ontario hospitals so that they can develop an awareness of the issues highlighted in this report and minimize some of the risks. Further investigation of mitigating strategies is required and will be undertaken in Phase 2 of this research. Plain Language Summary Patients, particularly in critical care environments, often require multiple intravenous (IV) medications via large volumetric or syringe infusion pumps. The infusion of multiple IV medications is not without risk; unintended errors during these complex procedures have resulted in patient harm. However, the range of associated risks and the factors contributing to these risks are not well understood. Health Quality Ontario’s Ontario Health Technology Advisory Committee commissioned the Health Technology Safety Research Team at the University Health Network to conduct a multi-phase study to identify and mitigate the risks associated with multiple IV infusions. Some of the questions addressed by the team were as follows: What is needed to reduce the risk of errors for individuals who are receiving a lot of medications? What strategies work best? The initial report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1a: Situation Scan Summary Report, summarizes the interim findings based on a literature review, an incident database review, and a technology scan. The Health Technology Safety Research Team worked in close collaboration with the Institute for Safe Medication Practices Canada on an exploratory study to understand the risks associated with multiple IV infusions and the degree to which nurses are educated to help mitigate them. The current report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b: Practice and Training Scan, presents the findings of a field study of 12 hospital clinical units across Ontario, as well as 13 interviews with educators from baccalaureate-level nursing degree programs and postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. It makes 9 recommendations that emphasize best practices for the administration of multiple IV infusions and pertain to secondary infusions, line identification, line set-up and removal, and administering IV bolus medications. The Health Technology Safety Research Team has also produced an associated report for hospitals entitled Mitigating the Risks Associated With Multiple IV Infusions: Recommendations Based on a Field Study of Twelve Ontario Hospitals, which highlights the 9 interim recommendations and provides a brief rationale for each one. PMID:23074426

Prognostic Classification Factors Associated With Development of Multiple Autoantibodies, Dysglycemia, and Type 1 Diabetes—A Recursive Partitioning Analysis

PubMed Central

Krischer, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To define prognostic classification factors associated with the progression from single to multiple autoantibodies, multiple autoantibodies to dysglycemia, and dysglycemia to type 1 diabetes onset in relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Three distinct cohorts of subjects from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study were investigated separately. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to determine the risk classes. Clinical characteristics, including genotype, antibody titers, and metabolic markers were analyzed. RESULTS Age and GAD65 autoantibody (GAD65Ab) titers defined three risk classes for progression from single to multiple autoantibodies. The 5-year risk was 11% for those subjects >16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, 29% for those ≤16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, and 45% for those subjects with high GAD65Ab titers regardless of age. Progression to dysglycemia was associated with islet antigen 2 Ab titers, and 2-h glucose and fasting C-peptide levels. The 5-year risk is 28%, 39%, and 51% for respective risk classes defined by the three predictors. Progression to type 1 diabetes was associated with the number of positive autoantibodies, peak C-peptide level, HbA1c level, and age. Four risk classes defined by RPA had a 5-year risk of 9%, 33%, 62%, and 80%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The use of RPA offered a new classification approach that could predict the timing of transitions from one preclinical stage to the next in the development of type 1 diabetes. Using these RPA classes, new prevention techniques can be tailored based on the individual prognostic risk characteristics at different preclinical stages. PMID:27208341

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. By coupling qHTS data with adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) we can use ontologies to make predictions about potential hazards and to identify those assays which are sufficient to infer these same hazards. Once those assays are identified, we can use bootstrap natural spline-based metaregression to integrate the evidence across multiple replicates or assays (if a combination of assays are together necessary to be sufficient). In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene (B[k]F) may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate AOPs. We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline-based metaregression can be used to integrate the data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration-response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an internal point of departure of 0.751µM and risk-specific concentrations of 0.378µM for both 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 additive risk for B[k]F induced DNA damage based on the p53 assay. Based on the available evidence, we

[COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE MULTIMEDIA CANCER HEALTH RISKS CAUSED BY CONTAMINATION OF THE KRASNOIARSK KRAĬ REGIONS' ENVIRONMENT].

PubMed

Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Vorobieva, L M; Goriaev, D V; Tikhonova, I V; Kurkatov, S V

2015-01-01

Krasnoyarsk Krai is a region with developed mining and processing industries, notoriously known industries, as sources of carcinogenic emission. For 55 administrative units of the Krai 303 large enterprises' industrial emissions were preliminary prioritized and their location was designated. Only 52% out of the carcinogens emitted into the ambient air by industries were controlled, in other environments the figures ranged from 20% (soil, food) to 48% (drinking water), 10 carcinogens were not controlled in the environment at all. Based on the results of ranking carcinogenic emission and analysis of the carcinogens monitoring in the environment in 2007-2011 31 substances were selected. A comparative analysis of multiple environmental carcinogenic risks showed that 78% of the areas, based on the receipt ofcarcinogensfrom two media, and 80% ofthe areas taking into account the receipt ofcarcinogens from three media attributed to the alarming level of risk for population, that requires continuous monitoring and routine health interventions for its mitigation. The maximal multiple environmental risk values that took into account inputs from all sources were close to the upper boundary alarming level of risk, in Divnogorsk (7,80E-04), Norilsk (7,97 E-04), Krasnoyarsk (8,84E-04) and Achinsk (9,4 E-04). The greatest inputs to total individual cancer risk from polluted ambient air were made by benzene, chromium VI, formaldehyde and nickel, from drinking water--by arsenic, aldrin and heptachlor from soil--by arsenic and lead. The ambient air input into total multiple environmental carcinogenic risk ranged from 31.5 to 99.5%, drinking water input--from 0.5 to 68.5%, soil--up to 0.1%. Areas with maximum levels of total carcinogenic risk are characterized by the highest levels of average long-term indices of cancer development. The study discussed in this article has screening nature. Further in-depth researches for carcinogenic and toxic multimedia risks are required.

Management of heart failure in the new era: the role of scores.

PubMed

Mantegazza, Valentina; Badagliacca, Roberto; Nodari, Savina; Parati, Gianfranco; Lombardi, Carolina; Di Somma, Salvatore; Carluccio, Erberto; Dini, Frank Lloyd; Correale, Michele; Magrì, Damiano; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe

2016-08-01

Heart failure is a widespread syndrome involving several organs, still characterized by high mortality and morbidity, and whose clinical course is heterogeneous and hardly predictable.In this scenario, the assessment of heart failure prognosis represents a fundamental step in clinical practice. A single parameter is always unable to provide a very precise prognosis. Therefore, risk scores based on multiple parameters have been introduced, but their clinical utility is still modest. In this review, we evaluated several prognostic models for acute, right, chronic, and end-stage heart failure based on multiple parameters. In particular, for chronic heart failure we considered risk scores essentially based on clinical evaluation, comorbidities analysis, baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, sleep disorders, laboratory tests, echocardiographic imaging, and cardiopulmonary exercise test parameters. What is at present established is that a single parameter is not sufficient for an accurate prediction of prognosis in heart failure because of the complex nature of the disease. However, none of the scoring systems available is widely used, being in some cases complex, not user-friendly, or based on expensive or not easily available parameters. We believe that multiparametric scores for risk assessment in heart failure are promising but their widespread use needs to be experienced.

Migration, multiple sexual partnerships, and sexual concurrency in the Garífuna population of Honduras

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Anisha D.; Pettifor, Audrey; Barrington, Clare; Marshall, Stephen W.; Behets, Frieda; Guardado, Maria Elena; Farach, Nasim; Ardón, Elvia; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2015-01-01

The Garífuna, an ethnic minority group in Honduras, have been disproportionately affected by HIV. Previous research suggests that migration and high rates of multiple sexual partnerships are major drivers of the epidemic. Using data from a 2012 population-based survey, we assessed whether temporary migration was associated with 1) multiple sexual partnerships and 2) sexual concurrency among Garífuna men and women in Honduras. Among both men and women, temporary migration in the last year was associated with an increased likelihood of multiple sexual partnerships and with concurrency, though only the association between migration and multiple sexual partnerships among men was statistically significant (Adjusted Prevalence Ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4). Migration may contribute to HIV/STI vulnerability among Garífuna men and women via increases in these sexual risk behaviors. Research conducted among men and women at elevated risk of HIV should continue to incorporate measures of mobility, including history of internal migration. PMID:26242612

Migration, Multiple Sexual Partnerships, and Sexual Concurrency in the Garífuna Population of Honduras.

PubMed

Gandhi, Anisha D; Pettifor, Audrey; Barrington, Clare; Marshall, Stephen W; Behets, Frieda; Guardado, Maria Elena; Farach, Nasim; Ardón, Elvia; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2015-09-01

The Garífuna, an ethnic minority group in Honduras, have been disproportionately affected by HIV. Previous research suggests that migration and high rates of multiple sexual partnerships are major drivers of the epidemic. Using data from a 2012 population-based survey, we assessed whether temporary migration was associated with (1) multiple sexual partnerships and (2) sexual concurrency among Garífuna men and women in Honduras. Among both men and women, temporary migration in the last year was associated with an increased likelihood of multiple sexual partnerships and with concurrency, though only the association between migration and multiple sexual partnerships among men was statistically significant (Adjusted Prevalence Ratio 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4). Migration may contribute to HIV/STI vulnerability among Garífuna men and women via increases in these sexual risk behaviors. Research conducted among men and women at elevated risk of HIV should continue to incorporate measures of mobility, including history of internal migration.

Preschool-Based Programs for Externalizing Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnold, David H.; Brown, Sharice A.; Meagher, Susan; Baker, Courtney N.; Dobbs, Jennifer; Doctoroff, Greta L.

2006-01-01

Few mental health initiatives for young children have used classroom programs. Preschool-based efforts targeting externalizing behavior could help prevent conduct disorders. Additional benefits may include improved academic achievement and reduced risk for other mental health difficulties. Pro-grams that target multiple developmental domains are…

Engineered nanoconstructs for the multiplexed and sensitive detection of high-risk pathogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Youngmin; Kim, Ji-Eun; Jeong, Yoon; Lee, Kwan Hong; Hwang, Jangsun; Hong, Jongwook; Park, Hansoo; Choi, Jonghoon

2016-01-01

Many countries categorize the causative agents of severe infectious diseases as high-risk pathogens. Given their extreme infectivity and potential to be used as biological weapons, a rapid and sensitive method for detection of high-risk pathogens (e.g., Bacillus anthracis, Francisella tularensis, Yersinia pestis, and Vaccinia virus) is highly desirable. Here, we report the construction of a novel detection platform comprising two units: (1) magnetic beads separately conjugated with multiple capturing antibodies against four different high-risk pathogens for simple and rapid isolation, and (2) genetically engineered apoferritin nanoparticles conjugated with multiple quantum dots and detection antibodies against four different high-risk pathogens for signal amplification. For each high-risk pathogen, we demonstrated at least 10-fold increase in sensitivity compared to traditional lateral flow devices that utilize enzyme-based detection methods. Multiplexed detection of high-risk pathogens in a sample was also successful by using the nanoconstructs harboring the dye molecules with fluorescence at different wavelengths. We ultimately envision the use of this novel nanoprobe detection platform in future applications that require highly sensitive on-site detection of high-risk pathogens.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Patterns of Gender-Based Violence and Associations with Mental Health and HIV Risk Behavior Among Female Sex Workers in Mombasa, Kenya: A Latent Class Analysis.

PubMed

Roberts, Sarah T; Flaherty, Brian P; Deya, Ruth; Masese, Linnet; Ngina, Jacqueline; McClelland, R Scott; Simoni, Jane; Graham, Susan M

2018-03-30

Gender-based violence (GBV) is common among female sex workers (FSWs) and is associated with multiple HIV risk factors, including poor mental health, high-risk sexual behavior, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Prior studies have focused on GBV of one type (e.g. physical or sexual) or from one kind of perpetrator (e.g., clients or regular partners), but many FSWs experience overlapping types of violence from multiple perpetrators, with varying frequency and severity. We examined the association between lifetime patterns of GBV and HIV risk factors in 283 FSWs in Mombasa, Kenya. Patterns of GBV were identified with latent class analysis based on physical, sexual, or emotional violence from multiple perpetrators. Cross-sectional outcomes included depressive symptoms, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, disordered alcohol and other drug use, number of sex partners, self-reported unprotected sex, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in vaginal secretions, and a combined unprotected sex indicator based on self-report or PSA detection. We also measured HIV/STI incidence over 12 months following GBV assessment. Associations between GBV patterns and each outcome were modeled separately using linear regression for mental health outcomes and Poisson regression for sexual risk outcomes. Lifetime prevalence of GBV was 87%. We identified 4 GBV patterns, labeled Low (21% prevalence), Sexual (23%), Physical/Moderate Emotional (18%), and Severe (39%). Compared to women with Low GBV, those with Severe GBV had higher scores for depressive symptoms, PTSD symptoms, and disordered alcohol use, and had more sex partners. Women with Sexual GBV had higher scores for disordered alcohol use than women with Low GBV, but similar sexual risk behavior. Women with Physical/Moderate Emotional GBV had more sex partners and a higher prevalence of unprotected sex than women with Low GBV, but no differences in mental health. HIV/STI incidence did not differ significantly by GBV pattern. The prevalence of GBV was extremely high in this sample of Kenyan FSWs, and different GBV patterns were associated with distinct mental health and sexual risk outcomes. Increased understanding of how health consequences vary by GBV type and severity could lead to more effective programs to reduce HIV risk in this vulnerable population.

STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

2015-09-01

Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

1992-08-01

Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

Using Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Assessing the Risk of Railway Reconstruction Project in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Yu, Shih-Heng; Chang, Dong-Shang

2014-01-01

This study investigates the risk factors in railway reconstruction project through complete literature reviews on construction project risks and scrutinizing experiences and challenges of railway reconstructions in Taiwan. Based on the identified risk factors, an assessing framework based on the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (fuzzy MCDM) approach to help construction agencies build awareness of the critical risk factors on the execution of railway reconstruction project, measure the impact and occurrence likelihood for these risk factors. Subjectivity, uncertainty and vagueness within the assessment process are dealt with using linguistic variables parameterized by trapezoid fuzzy numbers. By multiplying the degree of impact and the occurrence likelihood of risk factors, estimated severity values of each identified risk factor are determined. Based on the assessment results, the construction agencies were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. That is, it enables construction agencies of railway reconstruction to plan the appropriate risk responses/strategies to increase the opportunity of project success and effectiveness. PMID:24772014

Effects of Tai Chi on Cognition and Fall Risk in Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Sungkarat, Somporn; Boripuntakul, Sirinun; Chattipakorn, Nipon; Watcharasaksilp, Kanokwan; Lord, Stephen R

2017-04-01

To examine whether combined center- and home-based Tai Chi training can improve cognitive ability and reduce physiological fall risk in older adults with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (a-MCI). Randomized controlled trial. Chiang Mai, Thailand. Adults aged 60 and older who met Petersen's criteria for multiple-domain a-MCI (N = 66). Three weeks center-based and 12 weeks home-based Tai Chi (50 minutes per session, 3 times per week). Cognitive tests, including Logical Memory (LM) delayed recall, Block Design, Digit Span forward and backward, and Trail-Making Test Part B-A (TMT B-A), and fall risk index using the Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA). At the end of the trial, performance on LM, Block Design, and TMT B-A were significantly better for the Tai Chi group than the control group after adjusting for baseline test performance. The Tai Chi group also had significantly better composite PPA score and PPA parameter scores: knee extension strength, reaction time, postural sway, and lower limb proprioception. Combined center- and home-based Tai Chi training three times per week for 15 weeks significantly improved cognitive function and moderately reduced physiological fall risk in older adults with multiple-domain a-MCI. Tai Chi may be particularly beneficial to older adults with this condition. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Arcjet Testing of Micro-Meteoroid Impacted Thermal Protection Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agrawal, Parul; Munk, Michelle M.; Glaab, Louis J.

2013-01-01

There are several harsh space environments that could affect thermal protection systems and in turn pose risks to the atmospheric entry vehicles. These environments include micrometeoroid impact, extreme cold temperatures, and ionizing radiation during deep space cruise, all followed by atmospheric entry heating. To mitigate these risks, different thermal protection material samples were subjected to multiple tests, including hyper velocity impact, cold soak, irradiation, and arcjet testing, at various NASA facilities that simulated these environments. The materials included a variety of honeycomb packed ablative materials as well as carbon-based non-ablative thermal protection systems. The present paper describes the results of the multiple test campaign with a focus on arcjet testing of thermal protection materials. The tests showed promising results for ablative materials. However, the carbon-based non-ablative system presented some concerns regarding the potential risks to an entry vehicle. This study provides valuable information regarding the capability of various thermal protection materials to withstand harsh space environments, which is critical to sample return and planetary entry missions.

Comparative analysis of Multiple risks in the Western part of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Chelidze, T.; Varazanashvili, O.; Amiranashvili, A.

2009-04-01

Georgia is prone to catastrophes. In the last two decades, there have occurred the following natural disasters: (a) Avalanches in Svaneti and Khevsureti, (b) landslides in the mountainous Achara, floods, (c) hurricane and drought in West and East Georgia, (d) Racha earthquake of 1991 and (e) the Tbilisi Earthquake of 2002. These phenomena are very special both from ecological and from social-economical points of view. By the disaster risk index obtained by the UNDP, Georgia is similar to countries with medium and high level risk. Therefore, natural disasters in Georgia are considered as a negative factor in the development process of the country. This implies the necessity of more active actions by all possible means to reduce the risk of natural disasters at each level and maintain the sustainable economic development of the country, including good education at the universities and schools for real understanding of natural hazards. The main goal of the work here is the assessment of 12 widespread natural disasters and multiple risks for political districts in West Georgia. These natural disasters include earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods, mudflows, droughts, hurricanes, lightning, hail, glaze, freezes, mists. The research was based on the following steps: (a) Creation of electronic detailed databases of natural disasters that occurred in Georgia. These databases consist of the parameters of such hazardous phenomena class that caused natural disasters. (b) Quantitative investigation of energetic and spatial-time regularities of 12 natural disasters for the territory of Georgia. Estimation of people and environment (technosphere) vulnerability. (c) Elaboration of mathematical models and algorithms of disasters multiple risks taking into account the concrete conditions: (i) Sharing and generalization of gathered experience in the world. This allows more proper and wide comparison of the multiple risks of Caucasus countries; (ii) Taking into account the general formula of risk = hazard x damage, transfer from analyze of separate risk to its complex one; (iii) Taking into account the reality of Georgia and complex scheme of revealed risk in separate district of the country during the construction of multiple risk models. Investigation of each step reveals problem according to essential parts in the multiple risks assessments, such as communication between scientists, engineers, civil protection and other agencies. A big gap in such kind of relationship leads to lack of important information, such as economic loss according to each hazard. Low level in education according in natural hazards cause bad management and sometimes increase economic and mortality loss.

Estimating Herd Immunity to Amphibian Chytridiomycosis in Madagascar Based on the Defensive Function of Amphibian Skin Bacteria

PubMed Central

Bletz, Molly C.; Myers, Jillian; Woodhams, Douglas C.; Rabemananjara, Falitiana C. E.; Rakotonirina, Angela; Weldon, Che; Edmonds, Devin; Vences, Miguel; Harris, Reid N.

2017-01-01

For decades, Amphibians have been globally threatened by the still expanding infectious disease, chytridiomycosis. Madagascar is an amphibian biodiversity hotspot where Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has only recently been detected. While no Bd-associated population declines have been reported, the risk of declines is high when invasive virulent lineages become involved. Cutaneous bacteria contribute to host innate immunity by providing defense against pathogens for numerous animals, including amphibians. Little is known, however, about the cutaneous bacterial residents of Malagasy amphibians and the functional capacity they have against Bd. We cultured 3179 skin bacterial isolates from over 90 frog species across Madagascar, identified them via Sanger sequencing of approximately 700 bp of the 16S rRNA gene, and characterized their functional capacity against Bd. A subset of isolates was also tested against multiple Bd genotypes. In addition, we applied the concept of herd immunity to estimate Bd-associated risk for amphibian communities across Madagascar based on bacterial antifungal activity. We found that multiple bacterial isolates (39% of all isolates) cultured from the skin of Malagasy frogs were able to inhibit Bd. Mean inhibition was weakly correlated with bacterial phylogeny, and certain taxonomic groups appear to have a high proportion of inhibitory isolates, such as the Enterobacteriaceae, Pseudomonadaceae, and Xanthamonadaceae (84, 80, and 75% respectively). Functional capacity of bacteria against Bd varied among Bd genotypes; however, there were some bacteria that showed broad spectrum inhibition against all tested Bd genotypes, suggesting that these bacteria would be good candidates for probiotic therapies. We estimated Bd-associated risk for sampled amphibian communities based on the concept of herd immunity. Multiple amphibian communities, including those in the amphibian diversity hotspots, Andasibe and Ranomafana, were estimated to be below the 80% herd immunity threshold, suggesting they may be at higher risk to chytridiomycosis if a lethal Bd genotype emerges in Madagascar. While this predictive approach rests on multiple assumptions, and incorporates only one component of hosts' defense against Bd, their culturable cutaneous bacterial defense, it can serve as a foundation for continued research on Bd-associated risk for the endemic frogs of Madagascar. PMID:28959244

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from radiation and smoking risk" enhanced both subjective and objective understanding without diminishing trust in all participants and in the high dread-risk perception group; use of other risk-comparison information could lead the public to overestimate risk.

Joint analysis of multiple biomarkers for identifying type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and older Chinese: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Wu, Hongyu; Yu, Zhijie; Qi, Qibin; Li, Huaixing; Sun, Qi

2011-01-01

Objective Identifying individuals with high risk of type 2 diabetes is important. To evaluate discriminatory ability of multiple biomarkers for type 2 diabetes in a Chinese population. Methods Plasma adiponectin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, retinol-binding protein 4, resistin, C-reactive protein, interleukin 6 (IL-6), tumour necrosis factor α receptor 2 and ferritin were measured in a population-based sample of 3189 Chinese (1419 men and 1770 women) aged 50–70 years. A weighted biomarkers risk score (BRS) was developed based on the strength of associations of these biomarkers with type 2 diabetes. The discriminatory ability was tested by the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Results Adiponectin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, IL-6 and ferritin were independently associated with the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, and they were used to calculate the biomarkers risk score (BRS). After adjustment for the confounding factors, the ORs for type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose with each point increment of BRS were 1.28 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.34) and 1.16 (1.12 to 1.20), respectively. Compared with those in the lowest quintile of the BRS, the participants in the highest quintile have an OR (95% CI) of 6.67 (4.21 to 10.55) for type 2 diabetes. The area under the curve for the BRS and conventional risk factors alone was 0.73 and 0.76, respectively, and substantially increased to 0.81 after combining both BRS and conventional risk factors (p<0.001). Conclusions These data suggest that combining multiple biomarkers and conventional risk factors might substantially enhance the ability to identify individuals with type 2 diabetes. More prospective data are warranted to confirm this observation. PMID:22021786

Patterns of multiple health risk–behaviours in university students and their association with mental health: application of latent class analysis

PubMed Central

Kwan, M. Y.; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, K. P.; Duku, E.; Faulkner, G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Introduction: University and college campuses may be the last setting where it is possible to comprehensively address the health of a large proportion of the young adult population. It is important that health promoters understand the collective challenges students are facing, and to better understand the broader lifestyle behavioural patterning evident during this life stage. The purpose of this study was to examine the clustering of modifiable health-risk behaviours and to explore the relationship between these identified clusters and mental health outcomes among a large Canadian university sample. Methods: Undergraduate students (n = 837; mean age = 21 years) from the University of Toronto completed the National College Health Assessment survey. The survey consists of approximately 300 items, including assessments of student health status, mental health and health-risk behaviours. Latent class analysis was used to identify patterning based on eight salient health-risk behaviours (marijuana use, other illicit drug use, risky sex, smoking, binge drinking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and insufficient sleep). Results: A three-class model based on student behavioural patterns emerged: “typical,” “high-risk” and “moderately healthy.” Results also found high-risk students reporting significantly higher levels of stress than typical students (χ2(1671) = 7.26, p < .01). Conclusion: Students with the highest likelihood of engaging in multiple health-risk behaviours reported poorer mental health, particularly as it relates to stress. Although these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the 28% response rate, they do suggest that interventions targeting specific student groups with similar patterning of multiple health-risk behaviours may be needed. PMID:27556920

Double jeopardy: interaction effects of marital and poverty status on the risk of mortality.

PubMed

Smith, K R; Waitzman, N J

1994-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that marital and poverty status interact in their effects on mortality risks beyond their main effects. This study examines the epidemiological bases for applying an additive rather than a multiplicative specification when testing for interaction between two discrete risk factors. We specifically predict that risks associated with being nonmarried and with being poor interact to produce mortality risks that are greater than each risk acting independently. The analysis is based on men and women who were ages 25-74 during the 1971-1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (NHANES I) and who were traced successfully in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study in 1982-1984. Overall, being both poor and nonmarried places nonelderly (ages 25-64) men, but not women, at risk of mortality greater than that expected from the main effects. This study shows that for all-cause mortality, marital and poverty status interact for men but less so for women; these findings exist when interaction is assessed with either a multiplicative or an additive standard. This difference is most pronounced for poor, widowed men and (to a lesser degree) poor, divorced men. For violent/accidental deaths among men, the interaction effects are large on the basis of an additive model. Weak main and interaction effects were detected for the elderly (age 65+).

Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

PubMed

Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

2017-01-01

To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Finding Groups Using Model-Based Cluster Analysis: Heterogeneous Emotional Self-Regulatory Processes and Heavy Alcohol Use Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mun, Eun Young; von Eye, Alexander; Bates, Marsha E.; Vaschillo, Evgeny G.

2008-01-01

Model-based cluster analysis is a new clustering procedure to investigate population heterogeneity utilizing finite mixture multivariate normal densities. It is an inferentially based, statistically principled procedure that allows comparison of nonnested models using the Bayesian information criterion to compare multiple models and identify the…

Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents: The TRAILS study.

PubMed

de Winter, Andrea F; Visser, Leenke; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

2016-03-01

Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents. Eight health risk behaviors (no regular consumption of fruit, vegetables or breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and cannabis use) were assessed in a prospective population study (second and third wave). Participants were assessed in three waves between ages 10 and 17 (2001-2008; n=2230). Multiple linear regression was used to assess the influence of gender, self-control, parental health risk behaviors, parental monitoring and socioeconomic factors on the number of health risk behaviors adjusted for preceding multiple health risk behaviors (analysis: 2013-2014). Rates of >5 health risk behaviors were high: 3.6% at age 13.5 and 10.2% at age 16. Smoking at age 13.5 was frequently associated with health risk behaviors at age 16. No regular consumption of fruit, vegetables and breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity and smoking predicted the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors at follow-up. Significant predictors of the development of multiple health risk behaviors were adolescents' levels of self-control, socioeconomic status and maternal smoking. Multiple health risk behaviors are common among adolescents. Individual and social factors predict changes in multiple health risk behaviors, showing that prevention targeting multiple risk behaviors is needed. Special attention should be paid to adolescents with low self-control and families with low socioeconomic status or a mother who smokes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from radiation and smoking risk” enhanced both subjective and objective understanding without diminishing trust in all participants and in the high dread-risk perception group; use of other risk-comparison information could lead the public to overestimate risk. PMID:27802304

Application of High-Throughput In Vitro Assays for Risk-Based Chemical Safety Decisions of Environmental and Industrial Chemicals (SOT presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple drivers shape the types of human-health assessments performed on chemicals by U.S. EPA resulting in chemical assessments are “fit-for-purpose” ranging from prioritization for further testing to full risk assessments. Layered on top of the diverse assessment needs are the...

Relationship among Attachment Security, Emotional Intelligence, Trait Anxiety, and Substance Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Kristyn

2016-01-01

Substance use among college students is a serious problem in the United States. The existing body of literature demonstrates that multiple internal risk factors contribute to the presence of substance use and that often these risk factors co-occur. Based on attachment theory, the purpose of this quantitative study was to examine the relationships…

75 FR 3647 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-22

... secured borrowers within each year), the coefficients of variation of the time series of annual default... the method you use, please do not submit your comment multiple times via different methods. You may... component to directly recognize the credit risk on such loans.\\4\\ At the time of the Farm Bill's enactment...

AN OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR AIRPORT CONCRETE PAVEMENT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimomura, Taizo; Fujimori, Yuji; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Obama, Kengo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

In this paper, an optimal management model is formulated for the performance-based rehabilitation/maintenance contract for airport concrete pavement, whereby two types of life cycle cost risks, i.e., ground consolidation risk and concrete depreciation risk, are explicitly considered. The non-homogenous Markov chain model is formulated to represent the deterioration processes of concrete pavement which are conditional upon the ground consolidation processes. The optimal non-homogenous Markov decision model with multiple types of risk is presented to design the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans. And the methodology to revise the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans based upon the monitoring data by the Bayesian up-to-dating rules. The validity of the methodology presented in this paper is examined based upon the case studies carried out for the H airport.

Exploring the multiple-hit hypothesis of preterm white matter damage using diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Barnett, Madeleine L; Tusor, Nora; Ball, Gareth; Chew, Andrew; Falconer, Shona; Aljabar, Paul; Kimpton, Jessica A; Kennea, Nigel; Rutherford, Mary; David Edwards, A; Counsell, Serena J

2018-01-01

Preterm infants are at high risk of diffuse white matter injury and adverse neurodevelopmental outcome. The multiple hit hypothesis suggests that the risk of white matter injury increases with cumulative exposure to multiple perinatal risk factors. Our aim was to test this hypothesis in a large cohort of preterm infants using diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI). We studied 491 infants (52% male) without focal destructive brain lesions born at < 34 weeks, who underwent structural and dMRI at a specialist Neonatal Imaging Centre. The median (range) gestational age (GA) at birth was 30 + 1 (23 + 2 -33 + 5 ) weeks and median postmenstrual age at scan was 42 + 1 (38-45) weeks. dMRI data were analyzed using tract based spatial statistics and the relationship between dMRI measures in white matter and individual perinatal risk factors was assessed. We tested the hypothesis that increased exposure to perinatal risk factors was associated with lower fractional anisotropy (FA), and higher radial, axial and mean diffusivity (RD, AD, MD) in white matter. Neurodevelopmental performance was investigated using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition (BSITD-III) in a subset of 381 infants at 20 months corrected age. We tested the hypothesis that lower FA and higher RD, AD and MD in white matter were associated with poorer neurodevelopmental performance. Identified risk factors for diffuse white matter injury were lower GA at birth, fetal growth restriction, increased number of days requiring ventilation and parenteral nutrition, necrotizing enterocolitis and male sex. Clinical chorioamnionitis and patent ductus arteriosus were not associated with white matter injury. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that fetal growth restriction, increased number of days requiring ventilation and parenteral nutrition were independently associated with lower FA values. Exposure to cumulative risk factors was associated with reduced white matter FA and FA values at term equivalent age were associated with subsequent neurodevelopmental performance. This study suggests multiple perinatal risk factors have an independent association with diffuse white matter injury at term equivalent age and exposure to multiple perinatal risk factors exacerbates dMRI defined, clinically significant white matter injury. Our findings support the multiple hit hypothesis for preterm white matter injury.

The Relationship Between Pregnancy Prevention and STI/HIV Prevention and Sexual Risk Behavior Among American Indian Men.

PubMed

Rink, Elizabeth; FourStar, Kristofer; Anastario, Michael P

2017-01-01

We examined the relationship between American Indian men's attitudes toward pregnancy prevention, STI/HIV prevention, and sexual risk behavior. Attention was given to: (1) attitudes and intentions to use condoms and sexual risk behavior; (2) STI/HIV prevention characteristics and sexual risk behavior; (3) attitudes toward abstinence and monogamy and sexual risk behavior; and (4) decision-making in relationships and sexual risk behavior. Our sample included 120 heterosexual American Indian men aged 18 to 24 living on a reservation. Data were collected during in-depth interviews. A community-based participatory research framework was used to ensure the relevancy and acceptability of the study given the sensitivity of the topic. Results demonstrated that attitudinal factors were associated with sexual risk behavior, particularly inconsistent condom use. Attitudes associated with consistent condom use suggested greater levels of positive dispositions toward prevention and intention to use condoms. Consistent condom use was associated with more cautious attitudes toward sex with multiple sex partners. Study results suggested that American Indian men who reported sex with multiple partners exhibited a set of attitudes and beliefs toward pregnancy prevention and STI/HIV prevention that corresponded with a disposition resulting from their behaviors, in that engaging in sexual risk behavior elevated their levels of risk perception. Our findings suggest that heterosexual American Indian men living in rural environments need sexual and reproductive health programs and clinical services that address differing attitudes toward condom use within the context of multiple sex partners and sexual risk behavior. © 2015 National Rural Health Association.

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

Fall risk factors analysis based on sample entropy of plantar kinematic signal during stance phase.

PubMed

Shengyun Liang; Huiyu Jia; Zilong Li; Huiqi Li; Xing Gao; Zuchang Ma; Yingnan Ma; Guoru Zhao

2016-08-01

Falls are a multi-causal phenomenon with a complex interaction. The aim of our research is to study the effect of multiple variables for potential risk of falls and construct an elderly fall risk assessment model based on demographics data and gait characteristics. A total of 101 subjects, whom belong to Malianwa Street, aged above 50 years old and participated in questionnaire survey. Participants were classified into three groups (high, medium and low risk group) according to the score of elderly fall risk assessment scale. In addition, the data of ground reaction force (GRF) and ground reaction moment (GRM) was record when they performed walking at comfortable state. The demographic variables, sample entropy of GRF and GRM, and impulse difference of bilateral foot were considered as potential explanatory variables of risk assessment model. Firstly, we investigated whether different groups could present difference in every variable. Statistical differences were found for the following variables: age (p=2.28e-05); impulse difference (p=0.02036); sample entropy of GRF in vertical direction (p=0.0144); sample entropy of GRM in anterior-posterior direction (p=0.0387). Finally, the multiple regression analysis results indicated that age, impulse difference and sample entropy of resultant GRM could identify individuals who had different levels of fall risk. Therefore, those results could potentially be useful in the fall risk assessment and monitor the state of physical function in elderly population.

Purity and passion: risk and morality in Latina immigrants' and physicians' beliefs about cervical cancer.

PubMed

Martinez, R G; Chavez, L R; Hubbell, F A

1997-06-01

This paper examines how physicians' beliefs about risk factors for cervical cancer compare with Mexican and Salvadoran immigrant women's views (hereafter Latina immigrants). Between August 15, 1991 and August 15, 1992, we conducted ethnographic interviews with 39 Mexican immigrant women, 28 Salvadoran immigrant women, and 30 physicians in northern Orange County, California. Physicians and Latina immigrants converge on their beliefs that sexual behavior is a predominant risk factor for cervical cancer. They diverge, however, on their reasons. Latina immigrants' perceptions of health risks are embedded in a larger set of cultural values centering around gender relations, sexuality, and morality. Latina immigrants also emphasized men's behavior as risk factors. Physicians' views, on the other hand, are largely based on the epidemiology of cervical cancer risk factors. They emphasized beginning sexual relations at an early age, multiple sexual partners, and infection with sexually transmitted viruses. Some physicians, however, displayed moral interpretations of the sex-based risk factors for cervical cancer through the use of the culturally-loaded term "promiscuous" in place of "multiple sexual partners," through specific references to morality, and through characterizations of women at risk for cervical cancer. Both the physicians and the Latina immigrants in our study paid considerably less attention to socioeconomic factors. Our results have important implications for physicians who provide health care for Latina immigrants. Physicians should be clear to point out that women need not be "promiscuous" to get cervical cancer.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Risk factors, screening, and early detection

PubMed Central

Becker, Andrew E; Hernandez, Yasmin G; Frucht, Harold; Lucas, Aimee L

2014-01-01

Pancreatic cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States, with over 38000 deaths in 2013. The opportunity to detect pancreatic cancer while it is still curable is dependent on our ability to identify and screen high-risk populations before their symptoms arise. Risk factors for developing pancreatic cancer include multiple genetic syndromes as well as modifiable risk factors. Genetic conditions include hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome, Lynch Syndrome, familial adenomatous polyposis, Peutz-Jeghers Syndrome, familial atypical multiple mole melanoma syndrome, hereditary pancreatitis, cystic fibrosis, and ataxia-telangiectasia; having a genetic predisposition can raise the risk of developing pancreatic cancer up to 132-fold over the general population. Modifiable risk factors, which include tobacco exposure, alcohol use, chronic pancreatitis, diet, obesity, diabetes mellitus, as well as certain abdominal surgeries and infections, have also been shown to increase the risk of pancreatic cancer development. Several large-volume centers have initiated such screening protocols, and consensus-based guidelines for screening high-risk groups have recently been published. The focus of this review will be both the genetic and modifiable risk factors implicated in pancreatic cancer, as well as a review of screening strategies and their diagnostic yields. PMID:25170203

Sick Populations and Sick Subpopulations: Reducing Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease Between Blacks and Whites in the United States.

PubMed

Lu, Yuan; Ezzati, Majid; Rimm, Eric B; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Danaei, Goodarz

2016-08-09

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates are much higher in blacks than whites in the United States. It is unclear how CVD risk and events are distributed among blacks versus whites and how interventions reduce racial disparities. We developed risk models for fatal and for fatal and nonfatal CVD using 8 cohorts in the United States. We used 6154 adults who were 50 to 69 years of age in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999 to 2012 to estimate the distributions of risk and events in blacks and whites. We estimated the total and disparity impacts of a range of population-wide, targeted, and risk-based interventions on 10-year CVD risks and event rates. Twenty-five percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-28) of black men and 12% (95% CI, 10-14) of black women were at ≥6.67% risk of fatal CVD (almost equivalent to 20% risk of fatal or nonfatal CVD) compared with 10% (95% CI, 8-12) of white men and 3% (95% CI, 2-4) of white women. These high-risk individuals accounted for 55% (95% CI, 49-59) of CVD deaths among black men and 42% (95% CI, 35-46) in black women compared with 30% (95% CI, 24-35) in white men and 18% (95% CI, 13-22) in white women. We estimated that an intervention that treated multiple risk factors in high-risk individuals could reduce black-white difference in CVD death rate from 1659 to 1244 per 100 000 in men and from 1320 to 897 in women. Rates of fatal and nonfatal CVD were generally similar between black and white men. In women, a larger proportion of women were at ≥7.5% risk of CVD (30% versus 19% in whites), and an intervention that targeted multiple risk factors among this group was estimated to reduce black-white differences in CVD rates from 1688 to 1197 per 100 000. A substantially larger proportion of blacks have a high risk of fatal CVD and bear a large share of CVD deaths. A risk-based intervention that reduces multiple risk factors could substantially reduce overall CVD rates and racial disparities in CVD death rates. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Uptake, Results, and Outcomes of Germline Multiple-Gene Sequencing After Diagnosis of Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Kurian, Allison W; Ward, Kevin C; Hamilton, Ann S; Deapen, Dennis M; Abrahamse, Paul; Bondarenko, Irina; Li, Yun; Hawley, Sarah T; Morrow, Monica; Jagsi, Reshma; Katz, Steven J

2018-05-10

Low-cost sequencing of multiple genes is increasingly available for cancer risk assessment. Little is known about uptake or outcomes of multiple-gene sequencing after breast cancer diagnosis in community practice. To examine the effect of multiple-gene sequencing on the experience and treatment outcomes for patients with breast cancer. For this population-based retrospective cohort study, patients with breast cancer diagnosed from January 2013 to December 2015 and accrued from SEER registries across Georgia and in Los Angeles, California, were surveyed (n = 5080, response rate = 70%). Responses were merged with SEER data and results of clinical genetic tests, either BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) sequencing only or including additional other genes (multiple-gene sequencing), provided by 4 laboratories. Type of testing (multiple-gene sequencing vs BRCA1/2-only sequencing), test results (negative, variant of unknown significance, or pathogenic variant), patient experiences with testing (timing of testing, who discussed results), and treatment (strength of patient consideration of, and surgeon recommendation for, prophylactic mastectomy), and prophylactic mastectomy receipt. We defined a patient subgroup with higher pretest risk of carrying a pathogenic variant according to practice guidelines. Among 5026 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.9 [10.7]), 1316 (26.2%) were linked to genetic results from any laboratory. Multiple-gene sequencing increasingly replaced BRCA1/2-only testing over time: in 2013, the rate of multiple-gene sequencing was 25.6% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 74.4%;in 2015 the rate of multiple-gene sequencing was 66.5% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 33.5%. Multiple-gene sequencing was more often ordered by genetic counselors (multiple-gene sequencing, 25.5% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 15.3%) and delayed until after surgery (multiple-gene sequencing, 32.5% and BRCA1/2-only testing, 19.9%). Multiple-gene sequencing substantially increased rate of detection of any pathogenic variant (multiple-gene sequencing: higher-risk patients, 12%; average-risk patients, 4.2% and BRCA1/2-only testing: higher-risk patients, 7.8%; average-risk patients, 2.2%) and variants of uncertain significance, especially in minorities (multiple-gene sequencing: white patients, 23.7%; black patients, 44.5%; and Asian patients, 50.9% and BRCA1/2-only testing: white patients, 2.2%; black patients, 5.6%; and Asian patients, 0%). Multiple-gene sequencing was not associated with an increase in the rate of prophylactic mastectomy use, which was highest with pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 (BRCA1/2, 79.0%; other pathogenic variant, 37.6%; variant of uncertain significance, 30.2%; negative, 35.3%). Multiple-gene sequencing rapidly replaced BRCA1/2-only testing for patients with breast cancer in the community and enabled 2-fold higher detection of clinically relevant pathogenic variants without an associated increase in prophylactic mastectomy. However, important targets for improvement in the clinical utility of multiple-gene sequencing include postsurgical delay and racial/ethnic disparity in variants of uncertain significance.

Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

PubMed

Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

2014-09-01

Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

Donation, Not Disease! A Multiple-Hit Hypothesis on Development of Post-Donation Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Cheng, Xingxing S; Glassock, Richard J; Lentine, Krista L; Chertow, Glenn M; Tan, Jane C

2017-01-01

The risks following living kidney donation has been the subject of rigorous investigation in the past several decades. How to utilize the burgeoning new knowledge base to better the risk assessment, education, and health maintenance of donors is unclear. We review the physiologic and epidemiologic evidences on the post-donation state and submit a multiple-hit hypothesis to reconcile the finite elevation in risk of kidney disease after donation with the benign course of most kidney donors. The risk of end-stage kidney disease is higher in kidney donors compared to similarly healthy non-kidney donors. Nonetheless, post-donation kidney disease is uncommon and arises mostly in the setting of other "hits"-either a "first hit" present at birth or a "second hit" acquired later in life. The transplant community's focus should be directed toward (1) personalized risk assessment to inform consent before donation and (2) preventing and treating development of "second hits" following kidney donation.

Joint association of nicotinic acetylcholine receptor variants with abdominal obesity in American Indians: the Strong Heart Family Study.

PubMed

Zhu, Yun; Yang, Jingyun; Yeh, Fawn; Cole, Shelley A; Haack, Karin; Lee, Elisa T; Howard, Barbara V; Zhao, Jinying

2014-01-01

Cigarette smoke is a strong risk factor for obesity and cardiovascular disease. The effect of genetic variants involved in nicotine metabolism on obesity or body composition has not been well studied. Though many genetic variants have previously been associated with adiposity or body fat distribution, a single variant usually confers a minimal individual risk. The goal of this study is to evaluate the joint association of multiple variants involved in cigarette smoke or nicotine dependence with obesity-related phenotypes in American Indians. To achieve this goal, we genotyped 61 tagSNPs in seven genes encoding nicotine acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) in 3,665 American Indians participating in the Strong Heart Family Study. Single SNP association with obesity-related traits was tested using family-based association, adjusting for traditional risk factors including smoking. Joint association of all SNPs in the seven nAChRs genes were examined by gene-family analysis based on weighted truncated product method (TPM). Multiple testing was controlled by false discovery rate (FDR). Results demonstrate that multiple SNPs showed weak individual association with one or more measures of obesity, but none survived correction for multiple testing. However, gene-family analysis revealed significant associations with waist circumference (p = 0.0001) and waist-to-hip ratio (p = 0.0001), but not body mass index (p = 0.20) and percent body fat (p = 0.29), indicating that genetic variants are jointly associated with abdominal, but not general, obesity among American Indians. The observed combined genetic effect is independent of cigarette smoking per se. In conclusion, multiple variants in the nAChR gene family are jointly associated with abdominal obesity in American Indians, independent of general obesity and cigarette smoking per se.

A new breast cancer risk analysis approach using features extracted from multiple sub-regions on bilateral mammograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenqing; Tseng, Tzu-Liang B.; Zheng, Bin; Zhang, Jianying; Qian, Wei

2015-03-01

A novel breast cancer risk analysis approach is proposed for enhancing performance of computerized breast cancer risk analysis using bilateral mammograms. Based on the intensity of breast area, five different sub-regions were acquired from one mammogram, and bilateral features were extracted from every sub-region. Our dataset includes 180 bilateral mammograms from 180 women who underwent routine screening examinations, all interpreted as negative and not recalled by the radiologists during the original screening procedures. A computerized breast cancer risk analysis scheme using four image processing modules, including sub-region segmentation, bilateral feature extraction, feature selection, and classification was designed to detect and compute image feature asymmetry between the left and right breasts imaged on the mammograms. The highest computed area under the curve (AUC) is 0.763 ± 0.021 when applying the multiple sub-region features to our testing dataset. The positive predictive value and the negative predictive value were 0.60 and 0.73, respectively. The study demonstrates that (1) features extracted from multiple sub-regions can improve the performance of our scheme compared to using features from whole breast area only; (2) a classifier using asymmetry bilateral features can effectively predict breast cancer risk; (3) incorporating texture and morphological features with density features can boost the classification accuracy.

Response inhibition moderates the association between drug use and risky sexual behavior.

PubMed

Nydegger, Liesl A; Ames, Susan L; Stacy, Alan W; Grenard, Jerry L

2014-09-01

HIV infection is problematic among all drug users, not only injection drug users. Drug users are at risk for contracting HIV by engaging in risky sexual behaviors. The present study sought to determine whether inhibitory processes moderate the relationship between problematic drug use and HIV-risk behaviors (unprotected sex and multiple sex partners). One hundred ninety-six drug offenders enrolled in drug education programs were administered a battery of computer-based assessments. Measures included a cued go/no-go assessment of inhibitory processes, the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST) assessment of problematic drug use, and self-report assessment of condom use and multiple sex partners. Findings revealed that response inhibition assessed by the proportion of false alarms on the cued go/no-go moderated the relationship between problematic drug use and an important measure of HIV risk (condom nonuse) among drug offenders. However, response inhibition did not moderate the relationship between problematic drug use and another measure of HIV risk: multiple sex partners. Among this sample of drug offenders, we have found a relationship between problematic drug use and condom nonuse, which is exacerbated by poor control of inhibition. These findings have implications for the development of HIV intervention components among high-risk populations.

Confounder summary scores when comparing the effects of multiple drug exposures.

PubMed

Cadarette, Suzanne M; Gagne, Joshua J; Solomon, Daniel H; Katz, Jeffrey N; Stürmer, Til

2010-01-01

Little information is available comparing methods to adjust for confounding when considering multiple drug exposures. We compared three analytic strategies to control for confounding based on measured variables: conventional multivariable, exposure propensity score (EPS), and disease risk score (DRS). Each method was applied to a dataset (2000-2006) recently used to examine the comparative effectiveness of four drugs. The relative effectiveness of risedronate, nasal calcitonin, and raloxifene in preventing non-vertebral fracture, were each compared to alendronate. EPSs were derived both by using multinomial logistic regression (single model EPS) and by three separate logistic regression models (separate model EPS). DRSs were derived and event rates compared using Cox proportional hazard models. DRSs derived among the entire cohort (full cohort DRS) was compared to DRSs derived only among the referent alendronate (unexposed cohort DRS). Less than 8% deviation from the base estimate (conventional multivariable) was observed applying single model EPS, separate model EPS or full cohort DRS. Applying the unexposed cohort DRS when background risk for fracture differed between comparison drug exposure cohorts resulted in -7 to + 13% deviation from our base estimate. With sufficient numbers of exposed and outcomes, either conventional multivariable, EPS or full cohort DRS may be used to adjust for confounding to compare the effects of multiple drug exposures. However, our data also suggest that unexposed cohort DRS may be problematic when background risks differ between referent and exposed groups. Further empirical and simulation studies will help to clarify the generalizability of our findings.

School Dropout Prevention: What Arts-Based Community and Out-of-School-Time Programs Can Contribute

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charmaraman, Linda; Hall, Georgia

2011-01-01

Out-of-school-time programs, especially arts-based programs, can be critical players in a community's efforts to prevent school dropout. This research review suggests the following approaches for arts-based programs: (1) recruitment and retention of target populations with multiple risk factors; (2) long-term skill development that engages youth…

Assessment of DoD Wounded Warrior Matters: Managing Risks of Multiple Medications

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-21

post-traumatic stress, obsessive behavior, etc. 5 Garrison-based refers to permanently established military bases in the United States or overseas...and mixed with an undesirable substance, such as used coffee grounds or kitty litter.  This mixture should be placed in a sealed bag or container

What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries

PubMed Central

Sasieni, P D; Shelton, J; Ormiston-Smith, N; Thomson, C S; Silcocks, P B

2011-01-01

Background: The ‘lifetime risk' of cancer is generally estimated by combining current incidence rates with current all-cause mortality (‘current probability' method) rather than by describing the experience of a birth cohort. As individuals may get more than one type of cancer, what is generally estimated is the average (mean) number of cancers over a lifetime. This is not the same as the probability of getting cancer. Methods: We describe a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in the incidence rates routinely published by cancer registries. The new method applies cancer incidence rates to the estimated probability of being alive without a previous cancer. The new method is illustrated using data from the Scottish Cancer Registry and is compared with ‘gold-standard' estimates that use (unpublished) data on first primaries. Results: The effect of this correction is to make the estimated ‘lifetime risk' smaller. The new estimates are extremely similar to those obtained using incidence based on first primaries. The usual ‘current probability' method considerably overestimates the lifetime risk of all cancers combined, although the correction for any single cancer site is minimal. Conclusion: Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method. PMID:21772332

Child Maltreatment in the "Children of the Nineties": A Cohort Study of Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sidebotham, Peter; Heron, Jon

2006-01-01

Aim: To analyze the multiple factors affecting the risk of maltreatment in young children within a comprehensive theoretical framework. Methods: The research is based on a large UK cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Out of 14,256 children participating in the study, 293 were investigated by social services for…

A Prevention Program for Preschool C.O.A.s: Design and Early Effects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zucker, Robert A.; And Others

This report addresses three levels of questions about the effectiveness of the Michigan State University Multiple Risk Outreach Program (MROP). The MROP was designed to recruit families from this high-risk population and test the implementation of an intervention protocol in a population-based program for 3- to 6-year-olds and their families. This…

Randomised Controlled Trial of Parent Groups for Child Antisocial Behaviour Targeting Multiple Risk Factors: The SPOKES Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Stephen; Sylva, Kathy; Doolan, Moira; Price, Jenny; Jacobs, Brian; Crook, Carolyn; Landau, Sabine

2010-01-01

Background: There is a pressing need for cost-effective population-based interventions to tackle early-onset antisocial behaviour. As this is determined by many factors, it would seem logical to devise interventions that address several influences while using an efficient means of delivery. The aim of this trial was to change four risk factors…

Creating Nurturing Environments: A Science-Based Framework for Promoting Child Health and Development within High-Poverty Neighborhoods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Komro, Kelli A.; Flay, Brian R.; Biglan, Anthony

2011-01-01

Living in poverty and living in areas of concentrated poverty pose multiple risks for child development and for overall health and wellbeing. Poverty is a major risk factor for several mental, emotional, and behavioral disorders, as well as for other developmental challenges and physical health problems. In this paper, the Promise Neighborhoods…

Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Huang, Ying; Gilbert, Peter B

2011-12-01

Recently a new definition of surrogate endpoint, the "principal surrogate," was proposed based on causal associations between treatment effects on the biomarker and on the clinical endpoint. Despite its appealing interpretation, limited research has been conducted to evaluate principal surrogates, and existing methods focus on risk models that consider a single biomarker. How to compare principal surrogate value of biomarkers or general risk models that consider multiple biomarkers remains an open research question. We propose to characterize a marker or risk model's principal surrogate value based on the distribution of risk difference between interventions. In addition, we propose a novel summary measure (the standardized total gain) that can be used to compare markers and to assess the incremental value of a new marker. We develop a semiparametric estimated-likelihood method to estimate the joint surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. This method accommodates two-phase sampling of biomarkers and is more widely applicable than existing nonparametric methods by incorporating continuous baseline covariates to predict the biomarker(s), and is more robust than existing parametric methods by leaving the error distribution of markers unspecified. The methodology is illustrated using a simulated example set and a real data set in the context of HIV vaccine trials. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Effect of electronic stability control on automobile crash risk.

PubMed

Farmer, Charles

2004-12-01

Per vehicle crash involvement rates were compared for otherwise identical vehicle models with and without electronic stability control (ESC) systems. ESC was found to affect single-vehicle crashes to a greater extent than multiple-vehicle crashes, and crashes with fatal injuries to a greater extent than less severe crashes. Based on all police-reported crashes in 7 states over 2 years, ESC reduced single-vehicle crash involvement risk by approximately 41 percent (95 percent confidence limits 3348) and single-vehicle injury crash involvement risk by 41 percent (2752). This translates to an estimated 7 percent reduction in overall crash involvement risk (310) and a 9 percent reduction in overall injury crash involvement risk (314). Based on all fatal crashes in the United States over 3 years, ESC was found to have reduced single-vehicle fatal crash involvement risk by 56 percent (3968). This translates to an estimated 34 percent reduction in overall fatal crash involvement risk (2145).

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk perception in natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis patients and their neurologists.

PubMed

Heesen, Christoph; Kleiter, Ingo; Nguyen, Franziska; Schäffler, Nina; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

2010-12-01

Natalizumab is associated with the potentially life-threatening side-effect progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Little is known about patients' and physicians' risk estimates and attitudes towards natalizumab treatment. Consecutive natalizumab-treated patients (n = 69) and neurologists (n = 66) in two centres and cooperating private practices received an evidence-based three-page information leaflet about natalizumab-associated PML and an evaluation sheet. After reading the information, patients were significantly more likely than physicians to intend continuation of natalizumab treatment and willing to accept higher risks of PML: 49% of physicians would stop treatment at a PML risk of 2:10,000 or lower, while only 17% of patients would do so (p < 0.001). This difference could not be explained by risk calculation abilities or lack of understanding. Both groups overestimated natalizumab treatment effects. Patients had a significantly worse perception of multiple sclerosis as a malignant disease. We conclude that patients were willing to accept a higher risk of PML than neurologists. Coherent with their perception of risks and benefits, patients were also more willing to continue treatment. Open information about treatment-related risks is appreciated and might support shared decision making.

Multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among Israeli and Palestinian adolescents.

PubMed

Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Abdeen, Ziad; Walsh, Sophie D; Radwan, Qasrowi; Fogel-Grinvald, Haya

2012-07-01

Based conceptually on Problem Behavior Theory, Normalization Theory and theories of adolescent ethnic identity formation this study explores relationships between individual and cumulative multiple risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior among mid-adolescents in three different populations in the Middle East. Data from the 2004 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children in the Middle-East (HBSC-ME) study included 8345 10th-grade pupils in three populations: Jewish Israelis (1770), Arab Israelis (2185), and Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank (4390). We considered risk behaviors and factors including tobacco use, bullying, medically-attended injuries, excessive time with friends, parental disconnectedness, negative school experience, truancy and poor academic performance. Substantial population differences for suicidal tendency and risk behaviors were observed, with notably high levels of suicidal ideation and behavior among Arab-Israeli youth and higher levels of risk behaviors among the Jewish and Arab-Israeli youth. For all populations suicidal tendency was at least 4 times higher among adolescents reporting 4+ risk behaviors, suggesting that similar psychosocial determinants affect patterns of risk behaviors and suicidal tendency. Results highlight the importance of understanding cultural contexts of risk behaviors and suicidal ideation and behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple transitions and HIV risk among orphaned Kenyan schoolgirls.

PubMed

Mojola, Sanyu A

2011-03-01

Why are orphaned girls at particular risk of acquiring HIV infection? Using a transition-to-adulthood framework, this study employs qualitative data from Nyanza Province, Kenya, to explore pathways to HIV risk among orphaned and nonorphaned high-school girls. It shows how simultaneous processes such as leaving their parental home, negotiating financial access, and relationship transitions interact to produce disproportionate risk for orphaned girls. The role of financial provision and parental love in modifying girls' trajectories to risk are also explored. A testable theoretical model is proposed based on the qualitative findings, and policy implications are suggested.

MULTIPLE TRANSITIONS AND HIV RISK AMONG AFRICAN SCHOOL GIRLS

PubMed Central

Mojola, Sanyu A

2012-01-01

Why are orphaned girls at particular risk of contracting HIV? Using a transition to adulthood framework, this paper uses qualitative data from Nyanza province, Kenya to explore pathways to HIV risk among orphaned and non-orphaned high school girls. I show how co-occurring processes such as residential transition out of the parental home, negotiating financial access and relationship transitions interact to produce disproportionate risk for orphan girls. I also explore the role of financial provision and parental love in modifying girls’ trajectories to risk. I propose a testable theoretical model based on the qualitative findings and suggest policy implications. PMID:21500699

Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Rui; Lund, Jay R.; Madani, Kaveh

2016-01-01

Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.

Management of multiple myeloma in older adults: Gaining ground with geriatric assessment.

PubMed

Wildes, Tanya M; Campagnaro, Erica

2017-01-01

Multiple myeloma increases in incidence with age. With the aging of the population, the number of cases of multiple myeloma diagnosed in older adults each year will nearly double in the next 20years. The novel therapeutic agents have significantly improved survival in older adults, but their outcomes remain poorer than in younger patients. Older adults may be more vulnerable to toxicity of therapy, resulting in decreased dose intensity and contributing to poorer outcomes. Data are beginning to emerge to aid in identifying which individuals are at greater risk for toxicity of therapy; comorbidities, functional limitations, and age over 80years are among the factors associated with greater risk. Geriatric assessment holds promise in the care of older adults with multiple myeloma, both to allow modification of treatment to prevent toxicity, and to identify vulnerabilities that may require intervention. Emerging treatments with low toxicity and attention to individualizing therapy based on geriatric assessment may aid in further improving outcomes in older adults with multiple myeloma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diet components can suppress inflammation and reduce cancer risk.

PubMed

Hardman, W Elaine

2014-06-01

Epidemiology studies indicate that diet or specific dietary components can reduce the risk for cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. An underlying cause of these diseases is chronic inflammation. Dietary components that are beneficial against disease seem to have multiple mechanisms of action and many also have a common mechanism of reducing inflammation, often via the NFκB pathway. Thus, a plant based diet can contain many components that reduce inflammation and can reduce the risk for developing all three of these chronic diseases. We summarize dietary components that have been shown to reduce cancer risk and two studies that show that dietary walnut can reduce cancer growth and development. Part of the mechanism for the anticancer benefit of walnut was by suppressing the activation of NFκB. In this brief review, we focus on reduction of cancer risk by dietary components and the relationship to suppression of inflammation. However, it should be remembered that most dietary components have multiple beneficial mechanisms of action that can be additive and that suppression of chronic inflammation should reduce the risk for all three chronic diseases.

Diet components can suppress inflammation and reduce cancer risk

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Epidemiology studies indicate that diet or specific dietary components can reduce the risk for cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. An underlying cause of these diseases is chronic inflammation. Dietary components that are beneficial against disease seem to have multiple mechanisms of action and many also have a common mechanism of reducing inflammation, often via the NFκB pathway. Thus, a plant based diet can contain many components that reduce inflammation and can reduce the risk for developing all three of these chronic diseases. We summarize dietary components that have been shown to reduce cancer risk and two studies that show that dietary walnut can reduce cancer growth and development. Part of the mechanism for the anticancer benefit of walnut was by suppressing the activation of NFκB. In this brief review, we focus on reduction of cancer risk by dietary components and the relationship to suppression of inflammation. However, it should be remembered that most dietary components have multiple beneficial mechanisms of action that can be additive and that suppression of chronic inflammation should reduce the risk for all three chronic diseases. PMID:24944766

Exposure to Pre- and Perinatal Risk Factors Partially Explains Mean Differences in Self-Regulation between Races.

PubMed

Barnes, J C; Boutwell, Brian B; Miller, J Mitchell; DeShay, Rashaan A; Beaver, Kevin M; White, Norman

2016-01-01

To examine whether differential exposure to pre- and perinatal risk factors explained differences in levels of self-regulation between children of different races (White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Other). Multiple regression models based on data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (n ≈ 9,850) were used to analyze the impact of pre- and perinatal risk factors on the development of self-regulation at age 2 years. Racial differences in levels of self-regulation were observed. Racial differences were also observed for 9 of the 12 pre-/perinatal risk factors. Multiple regression analyses revealed that a portion of the racial differences in self-regulation was explained by differential exposure to several of the pre-/perinatal risk factors. Specifically, maternal age at childbirth, gestational timing, and the family's socioeconomic status were significantly related to the child's level of self-regulation. These factors accounted for a statistically significant portion of the racial differences observed in self-regulation. The findings indicate racial differences in self-regulation may be, at least partially, explained by racial differences in exposure to pre- and perinatal risk factors.

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin—A Risk Assessment in Support of GLMRIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grippo, Mark A.; Hlohowskyj, Ihor; Fox, Laura

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study (GLMRIS) to determine the aquatic nuisance species (ANS) currently established in either the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) or the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) that pose the greatest risk to the other basin. The GLRMIS study focuses specifically on ANS transfer through the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS), a multi-use waterway connecting the two basins. In support of GLMRIS, we conducted a qualitative risk assessment for 34 ANS in which we determined overall risk level for four time intervals over a 50-year period ofmore » analysis based on the probability of ANS establishing in a new basin and the environmental, economic, and sociopolitical consequences of their establishment. Probability of establishment and consequences of establishment were assigned qualitative ratings of high, medium, or low and establishment and consequence ratings were then combined into an overall risk rating. Over the 50-year period of analysis, seven species were characterized as posing a medium risk and two species as posing a high risk to the MRB. Three species were characterized as posing a medium risk to the GLB, but no high-risk species were identified for this basin. Based on the time frame in which these species were considered likely to establish in the new basin, risk increased over time for some ANS. Identifying and prioritizing ANS risk supported the development and evaluation of multiple control alternatives that could reduce the probability of interbasin ANS transfer. However, both species traits and the need to balance multiple uses of the CAWS make it difficult to design cost-efficient and socially acceptable controls to reduce the probability of ANS transfer between the two basins.« less

Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

PubMed

Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

2018-01-01

In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

The impact of attachment and depression symptoms on multiple risk behaviors in post-war adolescents in northern Uganda.

PubMed

Okello, J; Nakimuli-Mpungu, E; Klasen, F; Voss, C; Musisi, S; Broekaert, E; Derluyn, I

2015-07-15

We have previously shown that depression symptoms are associated with multiple risk behaviors and that parental attachments are protective against depression symptoms in post-war adolescents. Accumulating literature indicates that low levels of attachment may sensitize individuals to increased multiple risk behaviors when depression symptoms exist. This investigation examined the interactive effects of attachment and depression symptoms on multiple risk behavior. We conducted hierarchical logistic regression analyses to examine the impact of attachment and depression symptoms on multiple risk behavior in our post-war sample of 551 adolescents in Gulu district. Analyses revealed interactive effects for only maternal attachment-by-depression interaction. Interestingly, high levels of maternal attachment exacerbated the relationship between depression symptoms and multiple risk behaviors while low levels of maternal attachment attenuated this relationship. It is possible that this analysis could be biased by a common underlying factor that influences self-reporting and therefore is correlated with each of self-reported attachment security, depressive symptoms, and multiple risk behaviors. These findings suggest that maternal attachment serves as a protective factor at low levels while serving as an additional risk factor at high levels. Findings support and expand current knowledge about the roles that attachment and depression symptoms play in the development of multiple risk behaviors and suggest a more complex etiology for post-war adolescents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the lifetime risk of cancer associated with multiple CT scans.

PubMed

Ivanov, V K; Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Menyaylo, A N; Pryakhin, E A; Tsyb, A F; Mettler, F A

2014-12-01

Multiple CT scans are often done on the same patient resulting in an increased risk of cancer. Prior publications have estimated risks on a population basis and often using an effective dose. Simply adding up the risks from single scans does not correctly account for the survival function. A methodology for estimating personal radiation risks attributed to multiple CT imaging using organ doses is presented in this article. The estimated magnitude of the attributable risk fraction for the possible development of radiation-induced cancer indicates the necessity for strong clinical justification when ordering multiple CT scans.

Efficiency of MY09/11 consensus PCR in the detection of multiple HPV infections.

PubMed

Şahiner, Fatih; Kubar, Ayhan; Gümral, Ramazan; Ardıç, Medine; Yiğit, Nuri; Şener, Kenan; Dede, Murat; Yapar, Mehmet

2014-09-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing has become an important component of cervical cancer screening programs. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the efficiency of MY09/11 consensus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of multiple HPV infections. For this purpose, MY09/11 PCR was compared to an original TaqMan-based type-specific real-time PCR assay, which can detect 20 different HPV types. Of the 654 samples, 34.1% (223/654) were HPV DNA positive according to at least one method. The relative sensitivities of MY09/11 PCR and type-specific PCR were 80.7% (180/223) and 97.8% (218/223), respectively. In all, 352 different HPV isolates (66 low-risk and 286 high-risk or probable high-risk types) were identified in 218 samples, but 5 samples, which were positive by consensus PCR only, could not be genotyped. The distribution of the 286 high-risk or probable high-risk HPVs were as follows: 24.5% HPV-16, 8.4% HPV-52, 7.7% HPV-51, 6.3% HPV-39, 6.3% HPV-82, 5.6% HPV-35, 5.6% HPV-58, 5.6% HPV-66, 5.2% HPV-18, 5.2% HPV-68, and 19.6% the other 8 types. A single HPV type was detected in 57.3% (125/218) of the genotyped samples, and multiple HPV types were found in the remaining 42.7% (93/218). The false-negative rates of MY09/11 PCR were found to be 17.4% in single infections, 23.3% in multiple infections, and 34.6% in multiple infections that contained 3 or more HPV types, with the condition that the low-risk types HPV-6 and HPV-11 be considered as a monotype. These data suggest that broad-range PCR assays may lead to significant data loss and that type-specific PCR assays can provide accurate and reliable results during cervical cancer screening. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Validation of SKY92 and Its Combination With ISS in an Independent Cohort of Patients With Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

van Beers, Erik H; van Vliet, Martin H; Kuiper, Rowan; de Best, Leonie; Anderson, Kenneth C; Chari, Ajai; Jagannath, Sundar; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Kumar, Shaji K; Levy, Joan B; Auclair, Daniel; Lonial, Sagar; Reece, Donna; Richardson, Paul; Siegel, David S; Stewart, A Keith; Trudel, Suzanne; Vij, Ravi; Zimmerman, Todd M; Fonseca, Rafael

2017-09-01

High risk and low risk multiple myeloma patients follow a very different clinical course as reflected in their PFS and OS. To be clinically useful, methodologies used to identify high and low risk disease must be validated in representative independent clinical data and available so that patients can be managed appropriately. A recent analysis has indicated that SKY92 combined with the International Staging System (ISS) identifies patients with different risk disease with high sensitivity. Here we computed the performance of eight gene expression based classifiers SKY92, UAMS70, UAMS80, IFM15, Proliferation Index, Centrosome Index, Cancer Testis Antigen and HM19 as well as the combination of SKY92/ISS in an independent cohort of 91 newly diagnosed MM patients. The classifiers identified between 9%-21% of patients as high risk, with hazard ratios (HRs) between 1.9 and 8.2. Among the eight signatures, SKY92 identified the largest proportion of patients (21%) also with the highest HR (8.2). Our analysis also validated the combination SKY92/ISS for identification of three classes; low risk (42%), intermediate risk (37%) and high risk (21%). Between low risk and high risk classes the HR is >10. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dempster-Shafer theory applied to regulatory decision process for selecting safer alternatives to toxic chemicals in consumer products.

PubMed

Park, Sung Jin; Ogunseitan, Oladele A; Lejano, Raul P

2014-01-01

Regulatory agencies often face a dilemma when regulating chemicals in consumer products-namely, that of making decisions in the face of multiple, and sometimes conflicting, lines of evidence. We present an integrative approach for dealing with uncertainty and multiple pieces of evidence in toxics regulation. The integrative risk analytic framework is grounded in the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory that allows the analyst to combine multiple pieces of evidence and judgments from independent sources of information. We apply the integrative approach to the comparative risk assessment of bisphenol-A (BPA)-based polycarbonate and the functionally equivalent alternative, Eastman Tritan copolyester (ETC). Our results show that according to cumulative empirical evidence, the estimated probability of toxicity of BPA is 0.034, whereas the toxicity probability for ETC is 0.097. However, when we combine extant evidence with strength of confidence in the source (or expert judgment), we are guided by a richer interval measure, (Bel(t), Pl(t)). With the D-S derived measure, we arrive at various intervals for BPA, with the low-range estimate at (0.034, 0.250), and (0.097,0.688) for ETC. These new measures allow a reasonable basis for comparison and a justifiable procedure for decision making that takes advantage of multiple sources of evidence. Through the application of D-S theory to toxicity risk assessment, we show how a multiplicity of scientific evidence can be converted into a unified risk estimate, and how this information can be effectively used for comparative assessments to select potentially less toxic alternative chemicals. © 2013 SETAC.

Sun Exposure, Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphisms FokI and BsmI and Risk of Multiple Primary Melanoma

PubMed Central

Mandelcorn-Monson, Rochelle; Marrett, Loraine; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Orlow, Irene; Goumas, Chris; Paine, Susan; Rosso, Stefano; Thomas, Nancy; Millikan, Robert C.; Pole, Jason D.; Cotignola, Javier; Rosen, Cheryl; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

2011-01-01

Sunlight exposure increases risk of melanoma. Sunlight also potentiates cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D, which can inhibit melanoma cell growth and promote apoptosis. Vitamin D effects are mediated through the vitamin D receptor (VDR). We hypothesized that genetic variation in VDR affects the relationship of sun exposure to risk of a further melanoma in people who have already had one. We investigated the interaction between VDR polymorphisms and sun exposure in a population-based multinational study comparing 1138 patients with a multiple (second or subsequent) primary melanoma (cases) to 2151 patients with a first primary melanoma (controls); essentially a case-control study of melanoma in a population of melanoma survivors. Sun exposure was assessed using a questionnaire and interview, and was shown to be associated with multiple primary melanoma. VDR was genotyped at the FokI and BsmI loci and the main effects of variants at these loci and their interactions with sun exposure were analyzed. Only the BsmI variant was associated with multiple primary melanoma (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 0.99-1.62 for the homozygous variant genotype). Joint effects analyses showed highest ORs in the high exposure, homozygous variant BsmI genotype category for each sun exposure variable. Stratified analyses showed somewhat higher ORs for the homozygous BsmI variant genotype in people with high sun exposure than with low sun exposure. P values for interaction, however, were high. These results suggest that risk of multiple primary melanoma is increased in people who have the BsmI variant of VDR. PMID:21612999

Effectiveness of a combination of ezetimibe and statins in patients with acute coronary syndrome and multiple comorbidities: A 6-year population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Lin Wu, Fe-Lin; Wang, Jui; Ho, Wei; Chou, Chia-Hung; Wu, Yi-Jung; Choo, Dan-Wei; Wang, Yu-Wen; Chen, Po-Yu; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Lin, Zhen-Fang

2017-04-15

The clinical benefits of a combination of statins and ezetimibe in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) were observed in a clinical trial. However, little is known regarding the effectiveness of using statins with or without ezetimibe in patients with ACS and multiple comorbidities in real-world clinical practice. This is a nationwide population-based cohort study using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 212,110 patients with ACS who had been discharged after their first ACS events between 2006 and 2010 were enrolled. A propensity score matching approach was used to create matched cohorts for adjusting potential confounders. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed to estimate the risk of re-hospitalization for ACS and revascularization. Patients in the statins-plus-ezetimibe group had a significantly lower risk of re-hospitalization for ACS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]=0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.60-0.69) and revascularization (HR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.63-0.76) than those in the statins-alone group. In the statins-plus-ezetimibe group, female patients had a lower risk of re-hospitalization for ACS than male patients did, and patients without diabetes mellitus had a lower risk of re-hospitalization for ACS than did patients with diabetes mellitus. Patients with ACS and multiple comorbidities receiving a combination therapy of statins and ezetimibe had a lower risk of re-hospitalization for ACS and revascularization than those receiving statins alone. Significant interaction effects were observed between combination with ezetimibe, sex, and diabetes mellitus. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

PubMed

Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

2013-05-17

Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on describing individual-level risk factors, the future necessitates comprehensive epidemiologic data characterizing multiple levels of HIV risk.

Prognostic Classification Factors Associated With Development of Multiple Autoantibodies, Dysglycemia, and Type 1 Diabetes-A Recursive Partitioning Analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Ping; Krischer, Jeffrey P

2016-06-01

To define prognostic classification factors associated with the progression from single to multiple autoantibodies, multiple autoantibodies to dysglycemia, and dysglycemia to type 1 diabetes onset in relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes. Three distinct cohorts of subjects from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study were investigated separately. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to determine the risk classes. Clinical characteristics, including genotype, antibody titers, and metabolic markers were analyzed. Age and GAD65 autoantibody (GAD65Ab) titers defined three risk classes for progression from single to multiple autoantibodies. The 5-year risk was 11% for those subjects >16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, 29% for those ≤16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, and 45% for those subjects with high GAD65Ab titers regardless of age. Progression to dysglycemia was associated with islet antigen 2 Ab titers, and 2-h glucose and fasting C-peptide levels. The 5-year risk is 28%, 39%, and 51% for respective risk classes defined by the three predictors. Progression to type 1 diabetes was associated with the number of positive autoantibodies, peak C-peptide level, HbA1c level, and age. Four risk classes defined by RPA had a 5-year risk of 9%, 33%, 62%, and 80%, respectively. The use of RPA offered a new classification approach that could predict the timing of transitions from one preclinical stage to the next in the development of type 1 diabetes. Using these RPA classes, new prevention techniques can be tailored based on the individual prognostic risk characteristics at different preclinical stages. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

A Contemporary Prostate Biopsy Risk Calculator Based on Multiple Heterogeneous Cohorts.

PubMed

Ankerst, Donna P; Straubinger, Johanna; Selig, Katharina; Guerrios, Lourdes; De Hoedt, Amanda; Hernandez, Javier; Liss, Michael A; Leach, Robin J; Freedland, Stephen J; Kattan, Michael W; Nam, Robert; Haese, Alexander; Montorsi, Francesco; Boorjian, Stephen A; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Poyet, Cedric; Vertosick, Emily; Vickers, Andrew J

2018-05-16

Prostate cancer prediction tools provide quantitative guidance for doctor-patient decision-making regarding biopsy. The widely used online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC) utilized data from the 1990s based on six-core biopsies and outdated grading systems. We prospectively gathered data from men undergoing prostate biopsy in multiple diverse North American and European institutions participating in the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) in order to build a state-of-the-art risk prediction tool. We obtained data from 15 611 men undergoing 16 369 prostate biopsies during 2006-2017 at eight North American institutions for model-building and three European institutions for validation. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the risks of high-grade prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥7) on biopsy based on clinical characteristics, including age, prostate-specific antigen, digital rectal exam, African ancestry, first-degree family history, and prior negative biopsy. We compared the PBCG model to the PCPTRC using internal cross-validation and external validation on the European cohorts. Cross-validation on the North American cohorts (5992 biopsies) yielded the PBCG model area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as 75.5% (95% confidence interval: 74.2-76.8), a small improvement over the AUC of 72.3% (70.9-73.7) for the PCPTRC (p<0.0001). However, calibration and clinical net benefit were far superior for the PBCG model. Using a risk threshold of 10%, clinical use of the PBCG model would lead to the equivalent of 25 fewer biopsies per 1000 patients without missing any high-grade cancers. Results were similar on external validation on 10 377 European biopsies. The PBCG model should be used in place of the PCPTRC for prediction of prostate biopsy outcome. A contemporary risk tool for outcomes on prostate biopsy based on the routine clinical risk factors is now available for informed decision-making. Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Providing Classroom-Based Intervention to At-Risk Students to Support Their Academic Engagement and Interactions with Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ornelles, Cecily

2007-01-01

In this study, the author used a multiple baseline design to evaluate the effects of a structured intervention on the engagement and initiations of 3 children identified as at-risk for school difficulty. The intervention had two phases. During intervention (Phase 1) the students received 9 15-min instructional sessions. The intervention had 3…

Environmental Assessment for Construction of Multiple Roadway Improvement Projects MacDill AFB, Florida

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

flooded) is within tidal areas and occurs mainly on mangrove areas . These soils are subject to Affected Environment Environmental Assessment for...requires that Federal agencies identify and assess environmental health and safety risks that might disproportionately affect children. The Proposed...Action would not pose any adverse or disproportionate environmental health or safety risks to children living near the base. Safety precautions

Geospatial Informational Security Risks and Concerns of the U.S. Air Force GeoBase Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

multiple governmental directives such as the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA), and Office of Management and... governments , non- governmental organizations (NGOs), universities, and commercial sector contractors (Lachman, 2006). One command noted that over...Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GEM/ENV/07-M1 GEOSPATIAL INFORMATIONAL SECURITY RISKS AND CONCERNS OF THE UNITED STATES

Children with Behavioral, Non-Behavioral, and Multiple Disabilities, and the Risk of Out-of-Home Placement Disruption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helton, Jesse J.

2011-01-01

Objective: This study examined the relative risk of placement disruption for 3-10 year-old children placed in out-of-home care based on the biological relatedness of the placement caregiver and child disability status: no disability, a non-behavioral disability only, a behavioral disability only, or both a non-behavioral and behavioral disability.…

Communication-Based Assessment of Developmental Age for Young Children with Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeVeney, Shari L.; Hoffman, Lesa; Cress, Cynthia J.

2012-01-01

Purpose: In this study, the authors compared a multiple-domain strategy for assessing developmental age of young children with developmental disabilities who were at risk for long-term reliance on augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) with a communication-based strategy composed of receptive language and communication indices that may…

Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Carra, Claudio; Kim, Myung-Hee

2009-01-01

A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

The Singapore Myeloma Study Group Consensus Guidelines for the management of patients with multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

de Mel, Sanjay; Chen, Yunxin; Gopalakrishnan, Sathish Kumar; Ooi, Melissa; Teo, Constance; Tan, Daryl; Teo, Min Li Claire; Tso, Allison CY; Lee, Lian King; Nagarajan, Chandramouli; Goh, Yeow Tee; Chng, Wee Joo

2017-01-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable plasma cell neoplasm with an incidence of 100 patients per year in Singapore. Major advances have been made in the diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment of MM in the recent past. The reclassification of a subset of patients with smouldering MM, based on high-risk biomarkers, and the development of the revised international staging system are among the key new developments in diagnosis and staging. The use of novel agent-based treatment has resulted in significant improvements in the survival and quality of life of many patients with MM. Determining the optimal use of proteasome inhibitors, immunomodulators and, more recently, monoclonal antibodies is an area of ongoing investigation. In this guideline, we aim to provide an overview of the management of MM, incorporating the latest developments in diagnosis and treatment. PMID:27609508

Patients, practices, and relationships: challenges and lessons learned from the Kentucky Ambulatory Network (KAN) CaRESS clinical trial.

PubMed

Love, Margaret M; Pearce, Kevin A; Williamson, M Ann; Barron, Mary A; Shelton, Brent J

2006-01-01

The Cardiovascular Risk Education and Social Support (CaRESS) study is a randomized controlled trial that evaluates a social support intervention toward reducing cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetic patients. It involves multiple community-based practice sites from the Kentucky Ambulatory Network (KAN), which is a regional primary care practice-based research network (PBRN). CaRESS also implements multiple modes of data collection. The purpose of this methods article is to share lessons learned that might be useful to others developing or implementing complex studies that consent patients in PBRNs. Key points include building long-term relationships with the clinicians, adaptability when integrating into practice sites, adequate funding to support consistent data management and statistical support during all phases of the study, and creativity and perseverance for recruiting patients and practices while maintaining the integrity of the protocol.

A Personalized Approach in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: The Current Status of Disease Modifying Therapies (DMTs) and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

D’Amico, Emanuele; Patti, Francesco; Zanghì, Aurora; Zappia, Mario

2016-01-01

Using the term of progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS), we considered a combined population of persons with secondary progressive MS (SPMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS). These forms of MS cannot be challenged with efficacy by the licensed therapy. In the last years, several measures of risk estimation were developed for predicting clinical course in MS, but none is specific for the PMS forms. Personalized medicine is a therapeutic approach, based on identifying what might be the best therapy for an individual patient, taking into account the risk profile. We need to achieve more accurate estimates of useful predictors in PMS, including unconventional and qualitative markers which are not yet currently available or practicable routine diagnostics. The evaluation of an individual patient is based on the profile of disease activity.Within the neurology field, PMS is one of the fastest-moving going into the future. PMID:27763513

The Singapore Myeloma Study Group Consensus Guidelines for the management of patients with multiple myeloma.

PubMed

de Mel, Sanjay; Chen, Yunxin; Gopalakrishnan, Sathish Kumar; Ooi, Melissa; Teo, Constance; Tan, Daryl; Teo, Min Li Claire; Tso, Allison Cy; Lee, Lian King; Nagarajan, Chandramouli; Goh, Yeow Tee; Chng, Wee Joo

2017-02-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable plasma cell neoplasm with an incidence of 100 patients per year in Singapore. Major advances have been made in the diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment of MM in the recent past. The reclassification of a subset of patients with smouldering MM, based on high-risk biomarkers, and the development of the revised international staging system are among the key new developments in diagnosis and staging. The use of novel agent-based treatment has resulted in significant improvements in the survival and quality of life of many patients with MM. Determining the optimal use of proteasome inhibitors, immunomodulators and, more recently, monoclonal antibodies is an area of ongoing investigation. In this guideline, we aim to provide an overview of the management of MM, incorporating the latest developments in diagnosis and treatment. Copyright: © Singapore Medical Association.

Taking Multiple Exposure Into Account Can Improve Assessment of Chemical Risks.

PubMed

Clerc, Frédéric; Bertrand, Nicolas Jean Hyacinthe; La Rocca, Bénédicte

2017-12-15

During work, operators may be exposed to several chemicals simultaneously. Most exposure assessment approaches only determine exposure levels for each substance individually. However, such individual-substance approaches may not correctly estimate the toxicity of 'cocktails' of chemicals, as the toxicity of a cocktail may differ from the toxicity of substances on their own. This study presents an approach that can better take into account multiple exposure when assessing chemical risks. Almost 30000 work situations, monitored between 2005 and 2014 and recorded in two French databases, were analysed using MiXie software. The algorithms employed in MiXie can identify toxicological classes associated with several substances, based on the additivity of the selected effects of each substance. The results of our retrospective analysis show that MiXie was able to identify almost 20% more potentially hazardous situations than identified using a single-substance approach. It therefore appears essential to review the ways in which multiple exposure is taken into account during risk assessment. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Can Parenting Intervention Prevent Cascading Effects From Placement Instability to Insecure Attachment to Externalizing Problems in Maltreated Toddlers?

PubMed

Pasalich, Dave S; Fleming, Charles B; Oxford, Monica L; Zheng, Yao; Spieker, Susan J

2016-08-01

Multiple placement changes disrupt continuity in caregiving and undermine well-being in children in child welfare. This study conducted secondary data analysis of a randomized controlled trial to examine whether a relationship-based intervention, Promoting First Relationships(©) (PFR), reduced risk for a maladaptive cascade from placement instability to less secure attachment to elevated externalizing problems. Participants included caregivers (birth or foster/kin) of toddlers (10-24 months) recently transitioned to their care because of child welfare placement decisions. Although main effects of PFR on security and externalizing problems were not previously observed, this study's results revealed that PFR attenuated the association between multiple placement changes (baseline) and less security (postintervention) and that the indirect effect of placement instability on greater externalizing problems (6-month follow-up) via less security was evident only in toddlers in the comparison condition. These findings shed light on how a history of multiple caregiver changes may influence toddlers' risk for poor adjustment in subsequent placements, and the promise of supporting caregivers through a parenting intervention to prevent such risk. © The Author(s) 2016.

Can parenting intervention prevent cascading effects from placement instability to insecure attachment to externalizing problems in maltreated toddlers?

PubMed Central

Pasalich, Dave S.; Fleming, Charles B.; Oxford, Monica L.; Zheng, Yao; Spieker, Susan J.

2016-01-01

Multiple placement changes disrupt continuity in caregiving and undermine well-being in children in child welfare. This study conducted secondary data analysis of a randomized controlled trial to examine whether a relationship-based intervention, Promoting First Relationships© (PFR), reduced risk for a maladaptive cascade from placement instability to less secure attachment to elevated externalizing problems. Participants included caregivers (birth or foster/kin) of toddlers (10–24 months) recently transitioned to their care because of child welfare placement decisions. Although main effects of PFR on security and externalizing problems were not previously observed, this study’s results revealed that PFR attenuated the association between multiple placement changes (baseline) and less security (postintervention), and that the indirect effect of placement instability on greater externalizing problems (6-month follow-up) via less security was evident only in toddlers in the comparison condition. These findings shed light on how a history of multiple caregiver changes may influence toddlers’ risk for poor adjustment in subsequent placements, and the promise of supporting caregivers through a parenting intervention to prevent such risk. PMID:27381935

Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

PubMed

Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

2014-07-15

Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sociodemographic factors associated with multiple cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adults.

PubMed

Ghazali, Sumarni Mohd; Seman, Zamtira; Cheong, Kee Chee; Hock, Lim Kuang; Manickam, Mala; Kuay, Lim Kuang; Yusoff, Ahmad Faudzi; Mustafa, Feisul Idzwan; Mustafa, Amal Nasir

2015-01-31

To determine the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Malaysian adults. We analysed data on 1044 men and 1528 women, aged 24-64 years, participants in the Non Communicable Disease Surveillance 2005/2006, a nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional study. Prevalence of obesity, high blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, hyperglycemia, physical inactivity, smoking, risky drinking, low vegetable and fruit intake were determined and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic factors associated with having ≥3 of these cardiovascular disease risk factors. The response rate was 84.6% (2572/3040). Overall, 68.4% (95% CI: 63.2, 73.1) had at least three risk factors. Among men, older age and Indian ethnicity were independently associated with having ≥3 CVD risk factors; while among women, older age, low education, and housewives were more likely to have ≥3 CVD risk factors. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors clustering among Malaysian adults is high, raising concerns that cardiovascular disease incidence will rise steeply in the near future if no immediate preventive measures are taken. The current national health education and promotion programmes pertaining to modifiable risk factors can be further improved by taking into account the sociodemographic variation in CVD risk factors clustering.

A Comparison of Rule-based Analysis with Regression Methods in Understanding the Risk Factors for Study Withdrawal in a Pediatric Study.

PubMed

Haghighi, Mona; Johnson, Suzanne Bennett; Qian, Xiaoning; Lynch, Kristian F; Vehik, Kendra; Huang, Shuai

2016-08-26

Regression models are extensively used in many epidemiological studies to understand the linkage between specific outcomes of interest and their risk factors. However, regression models in general examine the average effects of the risk factors and ignore subgroups with different risk profiles. As a result, interventions are often geared towards the average member of the population, without consideration of the special health needs of different subgroups within the population. This paper demonstrates the value of using rule-based analysis methods that can identify subgroups with heterogeneous risk profiles in a population without imposing assumptions on the subgroups or method. The rules define the risk pattern of subsets of individuals by not only considering the interactions between the risk factors but also their ranges. We compared the rule-based analysis results with the results from a logistic regression model in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Both methods detected a similar suite of risk factors, but the rule-based analysis was superior at detecting multiple interactions between the risk factors that characterize the subgroups. A further investigation of the particular characteristics of each subgroup may detect the special health needs of the subgroup and lead to tailored interventions.

Neonatal Risk Factors for Treatment-Demanding Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Danish National Study.

PubMed

Slidsborg, Carina; Jensen, Aksel; Forman, Julie Lyng; Rasmussen, Steen; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø; Greisen, Gorm; la Cour, Morten

2016-04-01

One goal of the study was to identify "new" statistically independent risk factors for treatment-demanding retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Another goal was to evaluate whether any new risk factors could explain the increase in the incidence of treatment-demanding ROP over time in Denmark. A retrospective, register-based cohort study. The study included premature infants (n = 6490) born in Denmark from 1997 to 2008. The study sample and the 31 candidate risk factors were identified in 3 national registers. Data were linked through a unique civil registration number. Each of the 31 candidate risk factors were evaluated in univariate analyses, while adjusted for known risk factors (i.e., gestational age [GA] at delivery, small for gestational age [SGA], multiple births, and male sex). Significant outcomes were analyzed thereafter in a backward selection multiple logistic regression model. Treatment-demanding ROP and its associations to candidate risk factors. Mechanical ventilation (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99-4.08; P < 0.01) and blood transfusion (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.20-3.14; P = 0.01) were the only new statistically independent risk factors, in addition to GA at delivery, SGA, multiple births, and male sex. Modification in these prognostic factors for ROP did not cause an increase in treatment-demanding ROP. In a large study population, blood transfusion and mechanical ventilation were the only new statistically independent risk factors to predict the development of treatment-demanding ROP. Modification in the neonatal treatment with mechanical ventilation or blood transfusion did not cause the observed increase in the incidence of preterm infants with treatment-demanding ROP during a recent birth period (2003-2008). Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence-based patient information about treatment of multiple sclerosis--a phase one study on comprehension and emotional responses.

PubMed

Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2006-07-01

This study analysis the comprehension and emotional responses of people suffering from multiple sclerosis when provided with an evidence-based information module. It is a core module of a comprehensive decision aid about immunotherapy. The core module is designed to enable patients to process scientific uncertainty without adverse effects. It considers existing standards for risk communication and presentation of data. Using a mailing approach we investigated 169 patients with differing courses of disease in a before-after design. Items addressed the competence in processing relative and absolute risk information and patients' emotional response to the tool, comprising grade of familiarity with the information, understanding, relevance, emotional arousal, and certainty. Overall, numeracy improved (p < 0.001), although 99 of 169 patients did not complete the numeracy task correctly. Understanding depended on the relevance related to the course of disease. A moderate level of uncertainty was induced. No adverse emotional responses could be shown, neither in those who did comprehend the information, nor in those who did not develop numeracy skills. In conclusion, the tool supports people suffering from multiple sclerosis to process evidence-based medical information and scientific uncertainty without burdening them emotionally. This study is an example for the documentation of an important step in the development process of a complex intervention.

Distribution of maternal age and birth order groups in cases with unclassified multiple congenital abnormalities according to the number of component abnormalities: a national population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Csermely, Gyula; Czeizel, Andrew E; Veszprémi, Béla

2015-02-01

Multiple congenital abnormalities are caused by chromosomal aberrations, mutant major genes and teratogens. A minor proportion of these patients are identified as syndromes but the major part belonging to the group of unclassified multiple CAs (UMCAs). The main objective of this study was to evaluate the maternal age and birth order in pregnant women who had offspring affected with UMCA. The strong association between numerical chromosomal aberrations, e.g., Down syndrome and advanced maternal age is well-known and tested here. The Hungarian Case-Control Surveillance of Congenital Abnormalities, 1980 to 1996, yielded a large population-based national data set with 22,843 malformed newborns or fetuses ("informative cases") included 1349 UMCA cases with their 2407 matched controls. Case-control comparison of maternal age and birth order was made for cases with UMCA, stratified by component numbers and their controls. In addition, 834 cases with Down syndrome were compared to 1432 matched controls. The well-known advanced maternal age with the higher risk for Down syndrome was confirmed. The findings of the study suggest that the young age of mothers associates with the higher risk of UMCA, in addition birth order 4 or more associates with the higher risk for UMCA with 2 and 3 component CAs. This study was the first to analyze the possible maternal and birth order effect for cases with UMCA, and the young age and higher birth order associated with a higher risk for UMCA. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Is Hypovitaminosis D One of the Environmental Risk Factors for Multiple Sclerosis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierrot-Deseilligny, Charles; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude

2010-01-01

The role of hypovitaminosis D as a possible risk factor for multiple sclerosis is reviewed. First, it is emphasized that hypovitaminosis D could be only one of the risk factors for multiple sclerosis and that numerous other environmental and genetic risk factors appear to interact and combine to trigger the disease. Secondly, the classical…

A Population-Based Study on Alcohol and High-Risk Sexual Behaviors in Botswana

PubMed Central

Weiser, Sheri D; Leiter, Karen; Heisler, Michele; McFarland, Willi; Korte, Fiona Percy-de; DeMonner, Sonya M; Tlou, Sheila; Phaladze, Nthabiseng; Iacopino, Vincent; Bangsberg, David R

2006-01-01

Background In Botswana, an estimated 24% of adults ages 15–49 years are infected with HIV. While alcohol use is strongly associated with HIV infection in Africa, few population-based studies have characterized the association of alcohol use with specific high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods and Findings We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study of 1,268 adults from five districts in Botswana using a stratified two-stage probability sample design. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess correlates of heavy alcohol consumption (>14 drinks/week for women, and >21 drinks/week for men) as a dependent variable. We also assessed gender-specific associations between alcohol use as a primary independent variable (categorized as none, moderate, problem and heavy drinking) and several risky sex outcomes including: (a) having unprotected sex with a nonmonogamous partner; (b) having multiple sexual partners; and (c) paying for or selling sex in exchange for money or other resources. Criteria for heavy drinking were met by 31% of men and 17% of women. Adjusted correlates of heavy alcohol use included male gender, intergenerational relationships (age gap ≥10 y), higher education, and living with a sexual partner. Among men, heavy alcohol use was associated with higher odds of all risky sex outcomes examined, including unprotected sex (AOR = 3.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65 to 7.32), multiple partners (AOR = 3.08; 95% CI, 1.95 to 4.87), and paying for sex (AOR = 3.65; 95% CI, 2.58 to 12.37). Similarly, among women, heavy alcohol consumption was associated with higher odds of unprotected sex (AOR = 3.28; 95% CI, 1.71 to 6.28), multiple partners (AOR = 3.05; 95% CI, 1.83 to 5.07), and selling sex (AOR = 8.50; 95% CI, 3.41 to 21.18). A dose-response relationship was seen between alcohol use and risky sexual behaviors, with moderate drinkers at lower risk than both problem and heavy drinkers. Conclusions Alcohol use is associated with multiple risks for HIV transmission among both men and women. The findings of this study underscore the need to integrate alcohol abuse and HIV prevention efforts in Botswana and elsewhere. PMID:17032060

Sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Little is known about sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong. It is of public health importance to investigate this topic to inform sex education, policymaking, and prevention and intervention programs. Methods Based on the Youth Sexuality Survey conducted by Hong Kong Family Planning Association (FPAHK) in 2011, this study explored the characteristics of sexual knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among 1,126 unmarried youth aged 18 to 27 years. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to examine factors associated with unmarried youth’s premarital sex, casual relationships, multiple sex partners, and premarital pregnancy. Results Unmarried youth in Hong Kong had adequate sex knowledge, but contraceptive knowledge was deficient. The majority of unmarried youth (63.8%) held liberal attitudes toward premarital sex and about half held liberal attitudes toward any form of sexual activity and premarital pregnancy. Around 60% held conservative attitudes toward causal sex relationships and multiple sex partners. Males tended to hold more liberal attitudes toward high-risk sex behaviors than female youth. Approximately 41.5% of unmarried youth reported having engaged in premarital sex, whereas less than 10% engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Males also reported higher amounts of premarital sex, casual sex relationships, and multiple sex partners. Females reported higher levels of sexual coercion. Logistic regressions indicated that being older, coming from a divorced family, out of school status and liberal attitudes toward risky sex behavior were more likely to engage in premarital sex or high-risk sex behaviors, and being female, being better educated and being immigrants were less likely to engage in premarital sex. However, being immigrants was more likely to engage in casual relationship and to have multiple partners. Conclusions Premarital sex is becoming more prevalent among unmarried youth in Hong Kong, and a small proportion of young adults are engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Sex education and HIV prevention programs should equip them with adequate knowledge on contraception and condom use. Intervention programs can start with their attitudes toward sex. PMID:23895326

Sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yip, Paul S F; Zhang, Huiping; Lam, Tai-Hing; Lam, Kwok Fai; Lee, Antoinette Marie; Chan, John; Fan, Susan

2013-07-29

Little is known about sex knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among unmarried youth in Hong Kong. It is of public health importance to investigate this topic to inform sex education, policymaking, and prevention and intervention programs. Based on the Youth Sexuality Survey conducted by Hong Kong Family Planning Association (FPAHK) in 2011, this study explored the characteristics of sexual knowledge, attitudes, and high-risk sexual behaviors among 1,126 unmarried youth aged 18 to 27 years. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to examine factors associated with unmarried youth's premarital sex, casual relationships, multiple sex partners, and premarital pregnancy. Unmarried youth in Hong Kong had adequate sex knowledge, but contraceptive knowledge was deficient. The majority of unmarried youth (63.8%) held liberal attitudes toward premarital sex and about half held liberal attitudes toward any form of sexual activity and premarital pregnancy. Around 60% held conservative attitudes toward causal sex relationships and multiple sex partners. Males tended to hold more liberal attitudes toward high-risk sex behaviors than female youth. Approximately 41.5% of unmarried youth reported having engaged in premarital sex, whereas less than 10% engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Males also reported higher amounts of premarital sex, casual sex relationships, and multiple sex partners. Females reported higher levels of sexual coercion. Logistic regressions indicated that being older, coming from a divorced family, out of school status and liberal attitudes toward risky sex behavior were more likely to engage in premarital sex or high-risk sex behaviors, and being female, being better educated and being immigrants were less likely to engage in premarital sex. However, being immigrants was more likely to engage in casual relationship and to have multiple partners. Premarital sex is becoming more prevalent among unmarried youth in Hong Kong, and a small proportion of young adults are engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Sex education and HIV prevention programs should equip them with adequate knowledge on contraception and condom use. Intervention programs can start with their attitudes toward sex.

A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Residual Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the Era of Precision Medicine.

PubMed

Patel, Kershaw V; Pandey, Ambarish; de Lemos, James A

2018-04-11

Until recently, therapies to mitigate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk have been limited to lifestyle interventions, blood pressure lowering medications, high intensity statin therapy, antiplatelet agents, and in select patients, coronary artery revascularization. Despite administration of these evidence-based therapies, substantial residual risk for cardiovascular events persists, particularly among individuals with known ASCVD. Moreover, the current guideline-based approach does not adequately account for patient-specific, causal pathways that lead to ASCVD progression and complications. In the past few years, multiple new pharmacological agents, targeting conceptually distinct pathophysiological targets, have been shown in large and well-conducted clinical trials to lower cardiovascular risk among patients with established ASCVD receiving guideline directed medical care. These evidenced-based therapies reduce event rates, and in some cases all-cause and cardiovascular mortality; these benefits confirm important new disease targets and challenge the adequacy of the current "standard of care" for secondary prevention.

Multiple and concurrent sexual partnerships among men who have sex with men in Viet Nam: results from a National Internet-based Cross-sectional Survey.

PubMed

García, M C; Duong, Q L; Meyer, S B; Ward, P R

2016-03-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the largest HIV risk groups in Viet Nam and have been understudied. Sexual concurrency and multiple sex partnerships may contribute to high HIV incidence among MSM in Viet Nam. Limited information is available on concurrency and multiple sexual partnerships among MSM in Viet Nam or on the extent to which this population engages in concurrent and multiple unprotected anal intercourse. Data are from a self-administered Internet-based survey of Vietnamese MSM aged 18 years or older, having sex with male partner(s) in the last 12 months and recruited from social networking MSM-specific websites in Viet Nam. Multiple partnerships and concurrency were measured using the UNAIDS-recommended sexual partner matrix, a key component in the questionnaire. Concurrent and multiple sexual partnerships were analyzed at the individual level. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the demographic characteristics and behaviors associated with multiple sexual partnerships. A total of 1695 MSM reported on multiple sexual partnerships; 69.5% indicated multiple sexual partnerships in the last 6 months. A total of 257 MSM reported on concurrent sexual partnerships, with 51.0% reporting penetrative sex with concurrent partners in the last 6 months. Respondents were more likely to engage in multiple sexual partnerships if they were no longer a student, consumed alcohol before and/or during sex, used the Internet to meet casual sex partners and had never participated in a behavioral HIV intervention. Multiple sexual partnerships in the previous 6 months were common among MSM surveyed, as was sexual concurrency. High levels of multiple and concurrent sexual partnerships may be catalyzing the transmission of HIV among MSM in Viet Nam. Given the high prevalence of this high-risk sexual behavior, our findings underscore the urgent need for targeted prevention efforts, focusing on the reduction of multiple and concurrent sexual partners among this key population. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk of multiple myeloma in a case-spouse study.

PubMed

Andreotti, Gabriella; Katz, Michael; Hoering, Antje; Van Ness, Brian; Crowley, John; Morgan, Gareth; Hoover, Robert N; Baris, Dalsu; Durie, Brian

2016-01-01

This study examined lifestyle, occupation, medical history and medication use with multiple myeloma risk in a case-spouse study (481 patients, 351 spouses). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using logistic regression. Compared to spouse controls, cases were more likely to have a family history of multiple myeloma (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.2-6.4) and smoked cigarettes (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.5), but less likely to have consumed alcohol (OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.4-0.9). Nurse/health practitioners (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.3-6.2) and production workers (OR = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.0-13.7) had significantly increased risks; and some occupations linked to diesel exhaust had elevated, but non-significant, risks. History of herpes simplex (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.4), shingles (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.7), sexually transmitted diseases (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0-3.7) and medication allergies (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) were associated with higher risks. Use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, anti-convulsants, antidepressants, statins and diuretics were associated with reduced risks. The results are consistent with previous population-based studies and support the utility of patient databanks and spouse controls as a resource in epidemiologic research.

Does vagotomy protect against multiple sclerosis?

PubMed

Sundbøll, Jens; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Adelborg, Kasper; Svensson, Elisabeth

2017-07-01

To examine the association between vagotomy and multiple sclerosis. We conducted a matched cohort study of all patients who underwent truncal or super-selective vagotomy and a comparison cohort, by linking Danish population-based medical registries (1977-1995). Hazard ratios (HRs) for multiple sclerosis, adjusting for potential confounders were computed by means of Cox regression analysis. Median age of multiple sclerosis onset corresponded to late onset multiple sclerosis. No association with multiple sclerosis was observed for truncal vagotomy (0-37 year adjusted HR=0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-1.74) or super-selective vagotomy (0-37 year adjusted HR=1.28, 95% CI: 0.79-2.09) compared with the general population. We found no association between vagotomy and later risk of late onset multiple sclerosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between Variants in Atopy-Related Immunologic Candidate Genes and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Cotterchio, Michelle; Lowcock, Elizabeth; Bider-Canfield, Zoe; Lemire, Mathieu; Greenwood, Celia; Gallinger, Steven; Hudson, Thomas

2015-01-01

Many epidemiology studies report that atopic conditions such as allergies are associated with reduced pancreas cancer risk. The reason for this relationship is not yet understood. This is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the association between variants in atopy-related candidate genes and pancreatic cancer risk. A population-based case-control study of pancreas cancer cases diagnosed during 2011-2012 (via Ontario Cancer Registry), and controls recruited using random digit dialing utilized DNA from 179 cases and 566 controls. Following an exhaustive literature review, SNPs in 180 candidate genes were pre-screened using dbGaP pancreas cancer GWAS data; 147 SNPs in 56 allergy-related immunologic genes were retained and genotyped. Logistic regression was used to estimate age-adjusted odd ratio (AOR) for each variant and false discovery rate was used to adjust Wald p-values for multiple testing. Subsequently, a risk allele score was derived based on statistically significant variants. 18 SNPs in 14 candidate genes (CSF2, DENND1B, DPP10, FLG, IL13, IL13RA2, LRP1B, NOD1, NPSR1, ORMDL3, RORA, STAT4, TLR6, TRA) were significantly associated with pancreas cancer risk. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, two LRP1B SNPs remained statistically significant; for example, LRP1B rs1449477 (AA vs. CC: AOR=0.37, 95% CI: 0.22-0.62; p (adjusted)=0.04). Furthermore, the risk allele score was associated with a significant reduction in pancreas cancer risk (p=0.0007). Preliminary findings suggest certain atopy-related variants may be associated with pancreas cancer risk. Further studies are needed to replicate this, and to elucidate the biology behind the growing body of epidemiologic evidence suggesting allergies may reduce pancreatic cancer risk.

Randomized pilot trial of a cognitive-behavioral alcohol, self-harm, and HIV prevention program for teens in mental health treatment.

PubMed

Esposito-Smythers, Christianne; Hadley, Wendy; Curby, Timothy W; Brown, Larry K

2017-02-01

Adolescents with mental health conditions represent a high-risk group for substance use, deliberate self-harm (DSH), and risky sexual behavior. Mental health treatment does not uniformly decrease these risks. Effective prevention efforts are needed to offset the developmental trajectory from mental health problems to these behaviors. This study tested an adjunctive cognitive-behavioral family-based alcohol, DSH, and HIV prevention program (ASH-P) for adolescents in mental healthcare. A two group randomized design was used to compare ASH-P to an assessment only control (AO-C). Participants included 81 adolescents and a parent. Assessments were completed at pre-intervention as well as 1, 6, and 12-months post-enrollment, and included measures of family-based mechanisms and high-risk behaviors. ASH-P relative to AO-C was associated with greater improvements in most family process variables (perceptions of communication and parental disapproval of alcohol use and sexual behavior) as well as less DSH and greater refusal of sex to avoid a sexually transmitted infection. It also had a moderate (but non-significant) effect on odds of binge drinking. No differences were found in suicidal ideation, alcohol use, or sexual intercourse. ASH-P showed initial promise in preventing multiple high-risk behaviors. Further testing of prevention protocols that target multiple high-risk behaviors in clinical samples is warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regular analgesic use and risk of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Moysich, Kirsten B; Bonner, Mathew R; Beehler, Gregory P; Marshall, James R; Menezes, Ravi J; Baker, Julie A; Weiss, Joli R; Chanan-Khan, Asher

2007-04-01

Analgesic use has been implicated in the chemoprevention of a number of solid tumors, but to date no previous research has focused on the role of analgesics in the etiology of multiple myeloma (MM). We conducted a hospital-based case-control study of 117 patients with primary, incident MM and 483 age and residence matched controls without benign or malignant neoplasms. All participants received medical services at Roswell Park Cancer Institute in Buffalo, NY, and completed a comprehensive epidemiological questionnaire. Participants who reported analgesic use at least once a week for at least 6 months were classified as regular users; individuals who did not use analgesics regularly served as the reference group throughout the analyses. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to compute crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared to non-users, regular aspirin users were not at reduced risk of MM (adjusted OR=0.99; 95% CI 0.65-1.49), nor were participants with the highest frequency or duration of aspirin use. A significant risk elevation was found for participants who were regular acetaminophen users (adjusted OR=2.95; 95% CI 1.72-5.08). Further, marked increases in risk of MM were noted with both greater frequency (>7 tablets weekly; adjusted OR=4.36; 95% CI 1.70-11.2) and greater duration (>10 years; adjusted OR=3.26; 95% CI 1.52-7.02) of acetaminophen use. We observed no evidence of a chemoprotective effect of aspirin on MM risk, but observed significant risk elevations with various measures of acetaminophen use. Our results warrant further investigation in population-based case-control and cohort studies and should be interpreted with caution in light of the limited sample size and biases inherent in hospital-based studies.

Examination of Psychosocial and Physiological Risk for Bulimic Symptoms in Youth With Type 1 Diabetes Transitioning to an Insulin Pump: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Peterson, Claire M; Young-Hyman, Deborah; Fischer, Sarah; Markowitz, Jessica T; Muir, Andrew B; Laffel, Lori M

2018-01-01

This study tested hypotheses drawn from a risk model positing that psychosocial risk plus disease-related and treatment factors contribute to bulimic symptoms in youth with type 1 diabetes (T1D) transitioning to an insulin pump. The goal of this study was to examine whether disease-related factors, particularly disease- and treatment-based disruption in hunger and satiety, contribute to report of bulimic symptoms in youth with T1D after accounting for psychosocial risk factors. 43 youth (ages 10-17, 54% female) with established T1D were recruited before transition from multiple daily injections to insulin-pump therapy from three tertiary pediatric diabetes centers. Participants completed measures of bulimic symptoms, depressive symptoms dietary restraint, and the Diabetes Treatment and Satiety Scale, a diabetes-specific questionnaire assessing hunger and satiety cues and eating behavior in response to blood glucose levels and treatment. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to assess contributions of psychosocial and disease-based risk to report of bulimic symptoms. After assessing the contributions of body mass index, body image dissatisfaction, and dietary restraint, a significant 2-way interaction emerged between depression and diabetes-related uncontrollable hunger related to bulimic symptoms (β = 1.82, p < .01). In addition to psychosocial risk, disease- and treatment-based hunger and satiety dysregulation appear to be important factors contributing to report of bulimic symptoms in youth with T1D. These preliminary findings have significant treatment implications for bulimic symptoms in youth with T1D. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Predicting Maternal Rat and Pup Exposures: How Different Are They?

EPA Science Inventory

Risk and safety assessments for early life exposures to environmental chemicals or pharmaceuticals based on cross-species extrapolation would greatly benefit from information on chemical dosimetry in the young. Although relevant toxicity studies involve exposures during multiple ...

POHCS AND PICS SCREENING PROTOCOL

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes risk-driven analysis strategies and a tiered survey approach of analyses that should be useful for building data bases related to other waste combustion processes. NOTE: The need to characterize hazardous waste incinerator emissions for multiple organic compo...

Seismic, structural, and individual factors associated with earthquake related injury

PubMed Central

Peek-Asa, C; Ramirez, M; Seligson, H; Shoaf, K

2003-01-01

Background: Earthquakes cause thousands of deaths worldwide every year, and systematic study of the causes of these deaths can lead to their prevention. Few studies have examined how multiple types of risk factors are related to physical injury during an earthquake. Methods: A population based case-control study was conducted to examine how individual characteristics, building characteristics, and seismic features of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake contributed to physical injury. Cases included fatal and hospital-admitted injuries caused by the earthquake. Controls were drawn from a population based phone survey of county residents. Cases were individually matched to two sets of controls: one matched by age and gender and one matched by location at the time of the earthquake. Results: Individuals over age 65 had 2.9 times the risk of injury as younger people (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 7.4) and women had a 2.4 times greater risk than men (95% CI 1.2 to 5.1). Location in multiple unit residential and commercial structures each led to increased injury risk compared with single unit residential structures, but the exact estimate varied depending on the control group used. With every increase in ground motion of 10%g, injury risk increased 2.2 times (95% CI 1.6 to 3.3). Conclusions: Controlling for other factors, it was found that individual, building, and seismic characteristics were independently predictive of increased injury risk. Prevention and preparedness efforts should focus on each of these as potential points of intervention. PMID:12642562

Multiple Risks, Emotion Regulation Skill, and Cortisol in Low-Income African American Youth: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kliewer, Wendy; Reid-Quinones, Kathryn; Shields, Brian J.; Foutz, Lauren

2009-01-01

Associations between multiple risks, emotion regulation skill, and basal cortisol levels were examined in a community sample of 69 African American youth (mean age = 11.30 years; 49% male) living in an urban setting. Multiple risks were assessed at Time 1 and consisted of 10 demographic and psychosocial risk factors including parent, child, and…

A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.

A Profile of HIV Risk Factors in the Context of Sex Work Environments among Migrant Female Sex Workers in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Yi, Huso; Mantell, Joanne E.; Wu, Rongrong; Lu, Zhao; Zeng, Jing; Wan, Yanhai

2010-01-01

Migrant female sex workers (FSWs) are one of the most at-risk populations for HIV in China. This study demonstrates how multiple risk factors are situated and vary by types of sex work environments in a sample of 348 migrant FSWs in Beijing. Participants reported high rates of clients' refusal to use condoms (76%), unsafe sex with both clients (32%), non-paid regular partners (e.g., boyfriend or husband) (76%), and a STI symptom (79%) last year. Only 22% of FSWs had been tested for HIV. Risk factors were compared by three types of sex work environments: (1) entertainment establishments, (2) personal services sectors, and (3) street-based venues, including roadside brothels. Street-based FSWs, compared to the other FSWs, were more likely to be older, married with children, migrate from rural areas, and be arrested by police, and less likely to be educated, have contact with prevention services, be knowledgeable about HIV, and be tested for HIV. The FSWs in entertainment establishments were more likely than street-based FSWs to have reported being physically, verbally, and/or sexually abused by clients. Multiple discriminant analysis distinguished a profile of two different groups of risk factors: (1) police arrest, lack of protection from violence, access to prevention and health care, and HIV knowledge, and (2) verbal and physical abuse and clients' refusal of condom use. In the massive internal migration in China, disadvantages in economic sectors drive women to become involved in sex work. HIV prevention strategies must target socio-structural factors embedded in sex work environments. PMID:20391235

Genome-wide association study of chemotherapeutic agent-induced severe neutropenia/leucopenia for patients in Biobank Japan.

PubMed

Low, Siew-Kee; Chung, Suyoun; Takahashi, Atsushi; Zembutsu, Hitoshi; Mushiroda, Taisei; Kubo, Michiaki; Nakamura, Yusuke

2013-08-01

Chemotherapeutic agents are notoriously known to have a narrow therapeutic range that often results in life-threatening toxicity. Hence, it is clinically important to identify the patients who are at high risk for severe toxicity to certain chemotherapy through a pharmacogenomics approach. In this study, we carried out multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 13 122 cancer patients who received different chemotherapy regimens, including cyclophosphamide- and platinum-based (cisplatin and carboplatin), anthracycline-based (doxorubicin and epirubicin), and antimetabolite-based (5-fluorouracil and gemcitabine) treatment, antimicrotubule agents (paclitaxel and docetaxel), and topoisomerase inhibitors (camptothecin and etoposide), as well as combination therapy with paclitaxel and carboplatin, to identify genetic variants that are associated with the risk of severe neutropenia/leucopenia in the Japanese population. In addition, we used a weighted genetic risk scoring system to evaluate the cumulative effects of the suggestive genetic variants identified from GWAS in order to predict the risk levels of individuals who carry multiple risk alleles. Although we failed to identify genetic variants that surpassed the genome-wide significance level (P < 5.0 × 10(-8) ) through GWAS, probably due to insufficient statistical power and complex clinical features, we were able to shortlist some of the suggestive associated loci. The current study is at the relatively preliminary stage, but does highlight the complexity and problematic issues associated with retrospective pharmacogenomics studies. However, we hope that verification of these genetic variants through local and international collaborations could improve the clinical outcome for cancer patients. © 2013 Japanese Cancer Association.

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Mobility measures differentiate falls risk status in persons with multiple sclerosis: An exploratory study.

PubMed

Sebastião, Emerson; Learmonth, Yvonne C; Motl, Robert W

2017-01-01

Falls are of great concern among persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). To examine differences in metrics of mobility, postural control, and cognition in persons with MS with distinct fall risk status; and to investigate predictors of fall risk group membership using discriminant analysis. Forty-seven persons with MS completed the Activities-Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale and underwent a battery of assessments of mobility, balance, and cognition. Participants further wore an accelerometer for 7 days as an assessment of steps/day. Participants were allocated into fall risk groups based on ABC scale scores (increased fall risk (IFR); and normal fall risk (NFR)). We examined univariate differences between groups using ANOVA, and discriminant function analysis (DFA) identified the significant multivariate predictors of FR status. After controlling for disability level, the IFR group had significantly (p < 0.05) worse scores on measures of mobility (i.e., MSWS-12, 6 MW, and steps/day) compared to the NFR group. DFA identified MSWS-12 and 6 MW scores as significant (p < 0.05) predictors of fall risk group membership. Those two variables collectively explained 55% of variance in fall risk grouping. The findings suggest that mobility should be the focus of rehabilitation programs in persons with MS, especially for those at IFR.

Health and Well-Being Among Young People From Canadian Farms: Associations With a Culture of Risk-Taking.

PubMed

Pickett, William; Berg, Richard L; Marlenga, Barbara

2017-10-23

To determine whether patterns of adolescent risk behavior in rural populations, and especially farm populations, are associated with negative indicators of adolescent health and well-being, beyond an established association between risk-taking and injury. The study base was Cycle 7 (2014) of the Canadian Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children study. Children aged 11-16 years (n = 2,565; 2,533 weighted) who reported living or working on farms were matched within schools in a 1:1 ratio with other rural children. We related a scale describing engagement in multiple risk behavior to a series of indicators of adolescent health and well-being. Farm children, particularly male farm children, showed the highest levels of risk behavior. Multiple risk behavior was strongly and consistently associated with negative indicators of general health, mental health (life satisfaction, psychosomatic symptoms), and academic performance in all subpopulations. Adolescent risk behavior in rural populations, and especially farm populations, is common and associated with a variety of negative indicators of adolescent health and well-being. We speculate that the origins of this risk-taking lifestyle surround cultural definitions of self and identity, which have both protective and negative effects. © 2017 National Rural Health Association.

Does daily vitamin D 800 IU and calcium 1000 mg supplementation decrease the risk of falling in ambulatory women aged 65-71 years? A 3-year randomized population-based trial (OSTPRE-FPS).

PubMed

Kärkkäinen, Matti K; Tuppurainen, Marjo; Salovaara, Kari; Sandini, Lorenzo; Rikkonen, Toni; Sirola, Joonas; Honkanen, Risto; Arokoski, Jari; Alhava, Esko; Kröger, Heikki

2010-04-01

The hypothesis was that the calcium and vitamin D supplementation prevents falls at the population level. The OSTPRE-FPS was a randomized population-based open-trial with 3-year follow-up. The supplementation group (n=1566) received daily cholecalciferol 800IU+calcium carbonate 1000mg, while the control group (n=1573) received no supplementation or placebo. A randomly selected subsample of 593 subjects underwent a detailed measurement program including serum 25(OH)D measurements. The occurrence of falls was the primary outcome of the study. The participants in the subsample were telephoned at 4 months intervals and the rest of the trial population was interviewed by phone once a year. In the entire trial population (ETP), there were 812 women with 1832 falls in the intervention group and 833 women with 1944 falls in the control group (risk ratio was 0.98, 95% CI 0.92-1.05, P=0.160). The supplementation was not associated with single or multiple falls in the ETP. However, in the subsample, multiple fall incidence decreased by 30% (odds ratio (OR) 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.97, P=0.034) in the supplementation group. Further, the supplementation decreased the incidence of multiple falls requiring medical attention (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.53-0.97, P=0.031) in the ETP. The mean compliance in the entire trial population was 78% and in the subsample 79%. Overall, the primary analysis showed no association between calcium and vitamin D supplementation and risk of falls. However, the results of a post hoc analysis suggested that there was a decreased risk of multiple falls requiring medical attention: this finding requires confirmation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gene panel testing for hereditary breast cancer.

PubMed

Winship, Ingrid; Southey, Melissa C

2016-03-21

Inherited predisposition to breast cancer is explained only in part by mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Most families with an apparent familial clustering of breast cancer who are investigated through Australia's network of genetic services and familial cancer centres do not have mutations in either of these genes. More recently, additional breast cancer predisposition genes, such as PALB2, have been identified. New genetic technology allows a panel of multiple genes to be tested for mutations in a single test. This enables more women and their families to have risk assessment and risk management, in a preventive approach to predictable breast cancer. Predictive testing for a known family-specific mutation in a breast cancer predisposition gene provides personalised risk assessment and evidence-based risk management. Breast cancer predisposition gene panel tests have a greater diagnostic yield than conventional testing of only the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. The clinical validity and utility of some of the putative breast cancer predisposition genes is not yet clear. Ethical issues warrant consideration, as multiple gene panel testing has the potential to identify secondary findings not originally sought by the test requested. Multiple gene panel tests may provide an affordable and effective way to investigate the heritability of breast cancer.

Reversal of Hartmann's procedure: a high-risk operation?

PubMed

Schmelzer, Thomas M; Mostafa, Gamal; Norton, H James; Newcomb, William L; Hope, William W; Lincourt, Amy E; Kercher, Kent W; Kuwada, Timothy S; Gersin, Keith S; Heniford, B Todd

2007-10-01

Patients who undergo Hartmann's procedure often do not have their colostomy closed based on the perceived risk of the operation. This study evaluated the outcome of reversal of Hartmann's procedure based on preoperative risk factors. We retrospectively reviewed adult patients who underwent reversal of Hartmann's procedure at our tertiary referral institution. Patient outcomes were compared based on identified risk factors (age >60 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] score >2, and >2 preoperative comorbidities). One-hundred thirteen patients were included. Forty-four patients (39%) had an ASA score of >or=3. The mean hospital duration of stay was 6.8 days. There were 28 (25%) postoperative complications and no mortality. Patients >60 years old had significantly longer LOS compared with the rest of the group (P = .02). There were no differences in outcomes between groups based on ASA score or the presence of multiple preoperative comorbidities. An albumin level of <3.5 was the only significant predictor of postoperative complications (P = .04). The reversal of Hartmann's operation appears to be a safe operation with acceptable morbidity rates and can be considered in patients, including those with significant operative risk factors.

Looking beyond borders: integrating best practices in benefit-risk analysis into the field of food and nutrition.

PubMed

Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk analysis towards conceiving the analysis as a process of creating shared knowledge among all stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative risk assessment framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Mark A. Finney; Danny C. Lee; Thomas M. Quigley; Charles W. McHugh; Karin L. Riley; Julie M. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-based approach to fire and fuels management and suggest analyses that may be applied at multiple scales to inform...

Identification of water quality management policy of watershed system with multiple uncertain interactions using a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming approach.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Fu, Haiyan; Zhang, Junlong; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-06-01

In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function (θ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints (q i ) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of q i and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model's applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.

Setting Single or Multiple Goals for Diet and Physical Activity Behaviors Improves Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Pragmatic Pilot Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Swoboda, Christine M; Miller, Carla K; Wills, Celia E

2016-08-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a 4-month telephone-based goal-setting and decision support intervention among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and multiple risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). A randomized pretest-posttest control group design was employed. Overweight or obese adults aged 40 to 75 years with T2DM and ≥1 additional CVD risk factor were provided with individualized CVD risk information. At baseline and each biweekly telephone call, the multiple-goal group self-selected both diet- and physical activity-related goals, the single goal group set a single goal, and the control group received information about community health resources. Dietary intake was assessed via a food frequency questionnaire, physical activity via questionnaire, and A1C and blood lipids via fasting fingerstick sample. Between-group differences for clinical (ie, A1C, blood pressure, and blood lipids), physical activity, and dietary variables were evaluated using Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, analysis of variance, and t tests. From pre- to postintervention, the single-goal group demonstrated significant improvement in systolic blood pressure and intake of servings of fruits, vegetables, and refined grains (all P < .05). The multiple-goal group reported significant reduction in percent energy from total, saturated, monounsaturated, and trans fat intake and significant increase in leisure time walking (all P < .05). A multiple-goal approach over 4 months can improve dietary and physical activity outcomes, while a single-goal approach may facilitate improvement in one behavioral domain. Additional research is needed to evaluate maintenance of the achieved changes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Sun exposure, vitamin D receptor polymorphisms FokI and BsmI and risk of multiple primary melanoma.

PubMed

Mandelcorn-Monson, Rochelle; Marrett, Loraine; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K; Orlow, Irene; Goumas, Chris; Paine, Susan; Rosso, Stefano; Thomas, Nancy; Millikan, Robert C; Pole, Jason D; Cotignola, Javier; Rosen, Cheryl; Kanetsky, Peter A; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Begg, Colin B; Berwick, Marianne

2011-12-01

Sunlight exposure increases risk of melanoma. Sunlight also potentiates cutaneous synthesis of vitamin D, which can inhibit melanoma cell growth and promote apoptosis. Vitamin D effects are mediated through the vitamin D receptor (VDR). We hypothesized that genetic variation in VDR affects the relationship of sun exposure to risk of a further melanoma in people who have already had one. We investigated the interaction between VDR polymorphisms and sun exposure in a population-based multinational study comparing 1138 patients with a multiple (second or subsequent) primary melanoma (cases) to 2151 patients with a first primary melanoma (controls); essentially a case-control study of melanoma in a population of melanoma survivors. Sun exposure was assessed using a questionnaire and interview, and was shown to be associated with multiple primary melanoma. VDR was genotyped at the FokI and BsmI loci and the main effects of variants at these loci and their interactions with sun exposure were analyzed. Only the BsmI variant was associated with multiple primary melanoma (OR=1.27, 95% CI 0.99-1.62 for the homozygous variant genotype). Joint effects analyses showed highest ORs in the high exposure, homozygous variant BsmI genotype category for each sun exposure variable. Stratified analyses showed somewhat higher ORs for the homozygous BsmI variant genotype in people with high sun exposure than with low sun exposure. P values for interaction, however, were high. These results suggest that risk of multiple primary melanoma is increased in people who have the BsmI variant of VDR. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of high-intensity aerobic interval training on cardiovascular disease risk in testicular cancer survivors: A phase 2 randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Adams, Scott C; DeLorey, Darren S; Davenport, Margie H; Stickland, Michael K; Fairey, Adrian S; North, Scott; Szczotka, Alexander; Courneya, Kerry S

2017-10-15

Testicular cancer survivors (TCS) have an increased risk of treatment-related cardiovascular disease (CVD), which may limit their overall survival. We evaluated the effects of high-intensity aerobic interval training (HIIT) on traditional and novel CVD risk factors and surrogate markers of mortality in a population-based sample of TCS. This phase 2 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02459132) randomly assigned 63 TCS to usual care (UC) or 12 weeks of supervised HIIT (ie, alternating periods of vigorous-intensity and light-intensity aerobic exercise). The primary outcome was peak aerobic fitness (VO 2peak ) assessed via a treadmill-based maximal cardiorespiratory exercise test. Secondary endpoints included CVD risk (eg, Framingham Risk Score), arterial health, parasympathetic nervous system function, and blood-based biomarkers. Postintervention VO 2peak data were obtained for 61 participants (97%). HIIT participants attended 99% of the exercise sessions and achieved 98% of the target exercise intensity. Analysis of covariance demonstrated that HIIT was superior to UC for improving VO 2peak (adjusted between-group mean difference, 3.7 mL O 2 /kg/min; 95% confidence interval, 2.4-5.1 [P<.001]) and multiple secondary outcomes including CVD risk (P = .011), arterial thickness (P<.001), arterial stiffness (P<.001), postexercise parasympathetic reactivation (P = .001), inflammation (P = .045), and low-density lipoprotein (P = .014). Overall, HIIT reduced the prevalence of modifiable CVD risk factors by 20% compared with UC. This randomized trial provides the first evidence that HIIT improves cardiorespiratory fitness, multiple pathways of CVD risk, and surrogate markers of mortality in TCS. These findings have important implications for the management of TCS. Further research concerning the long-term effects of HIIT on CVD morbidity and mortality in TCS is warranted. Cancer 2017;123:4057-65. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Victimization and Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Related Risk Among Transgender Women in India: A Latent Profile Analysis.

PubMed

Willie, Tiara C; Chakrapani, Venkatesan; White Hughto, Jaclyn M; Kershaw, Trace S

2017-12-01

Globally, transgender women (TGW) experience multiple forms of victimization such as violence and discrimination that can place them at risk for poor sexual health. To date, research overlooks the heterogeneity in experiences of victimization among TGW. Furthermore, few studies have examined the association between victimization and sexual risk among TGW in India, despite the high burden of HIV and victimization in this community. Latent profile analysis was performed to identify patterns of victimization in a convenience sample of 299 TGW recruited from nongovernmental organizations across four states in India. Analysis of covariance was performed to examine differences in sexual risk (i.e., alcohol use before sex; inconsistent condom use with a male regular partner, a male causal partner, and a male paying partner; and having multiple sexual partners) between latent profiles. Five distinct profiles of Indian TGW were identified based on the type and severity of victimization: (1) Low victimization, (2) High verbal police victimization, (3) High verbal and physical police victimization, (4) Moderate victimization, and (5) High victimization. While controlling for age, education, income, HIV status, and marital status, results revealed that TGW in the moderate victimization and high victimization profiles had higher sexual risk than TGW in the low victimization and high verbal police victimization profiles. In addition, TGW in high verbal and physical police victimization profile had higher sexual risk than TGW in low victimization profile. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring sexual risk reduction interventions to the specific needs of TGW based on patterns of victimization.

Health Risks of an Inactive Lifestyle - Multiple Languages

MedlinePlus

... Are Here: Home → Multiple Languages → All Health Topics → Health Risks of an Inactive Lifestyle URL of this page: https://medlineplus.gov/languages/ ... V W XYZ List of All Topics All Health Risks of an Inactive Lifestyle - Multiple Languages To use the sharing features on ...

Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerner-Lam, A.; Chen, R.; Dilley, M.

2005-12-01

The "Hotspots Project" is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk-gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area - for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5' latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men

PubMed Central

De Roos, A J; Zahm, S; Cantor, K; Weisenburger, D; Holmes, F; Burmeister, L; Blair, A

2003-01-01

Methods: During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Results: Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Conclusion: Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios. PMID:12937207

Biomarkers of head and neck cancer, tools or a gordian knot?

PubMed

Lampri, Evangeli S; Chondrogiannis, Georgios; Ioachim, Elli; Varouktsi, Anna; Mitselou, Antigoni; Galani, Aggeliki; Briassoulis, Evangelos; Kanavaros, Panagiotis; Galani, Vasiliki

2015-01-01

Head and neck tumors comprise a wide spectrum of heterogeneous neoplasms for which biomarkers are needed to aid in earlier diagnosis, risk assessment and therapy response. Personalized medicine based on predictive markers linked to drug response, it is hoped, will lead to improvements in outcomes and avoidance of unnecessary treatment in carcinoma of the head and neck. Because of the heterogeneity of head and neck tumors, the integration of multiple selected markers in association with the histopathologic features is advocated for risk assessment. Validation of each biomarker in the context of clinical trials will be required before a specific marker can be incorporated into daily practice. Furthermore, we will give evidence that some proteins implicated in cell-cell interaction, such as CD44 may be involved in the multiple mechanism of the development and progression of laryngeal lesions and may help to predict the risk of transformation of the benign or precancerous lesions to cancer.

Developing a useful and restoration-based PCB cleanup goal - a multiple lines of evidence approach for the manistique area of concern

EPA Science Inventory

Areas of Concern or AOCs are addressed by considering beneficial uses of the system and whether those uses are impaired and not based on risk assessments. One such impairment at the Manistique AOC is restrictions on fish consumption; which is present because the fish tissue resi...

Serum markers for type II diabetes mellitus

DOEpatents

Metz, Thomas O; Qian, Wei-Jun; Jacobs, Jon M; Polpitiya, Ashoka D; Camp, II, David G; Smith, Richard D

2014-03-18

A method for identifying persons with increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus utilizing selected biomarkers described hereafter either alone or in combination. The present invention allows for broad based, reliable, screening of large population bases and provides other advantages, including the formulation of effective strategies for characterizing, archiving, and contrasting data from multiple sample types under varying conditions.

Multiple environmental chemical exposures to lead, mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls among childbearing-aged women (NHANES 1999-2004): Body burden and risk factors.

PubMed

Thompson, Marcella Remer; Boekelheide, Kim

2013-02-01

Lead, mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are neurotoxicants with intergenerational health consequences from maternal body burden and gestational exposures. Little is known about multiple chemical exposures among childbearing-aged women. To determine the percentage of women aged 16-49 of diverse races and ethnicities whose body burdens for all three xenobiotics were at or above the median; to identify mixed exposures; and to describe those women disproportionately burdened by two or more of these chemicals based on susceptibility- and exposure-related attributes, socioeconomic factors and race-ethnicity. Secondary data analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2004). The best-fit logistic regression model without interactions contained 12 variables. Four risk factors associated with body burden were notable (P≤0.05). An exponential relationship was demonstrated with increasing age. Any fish consumption in past 30 days more than doubled the odds. Heavy alcohol consumption increased the relative risk. History of breastfeeding reduced this risk. These women were more likely to have two xenobiotics at or above the median than one. More than one-fifth of these childbearing-aged women had three xenobiotic levels at or above the median. These findings are among the first description of US childbearing-aged women's body burden and risk factors for multiple chemical exposures. This study supports increasing age, any fish consumption and heavy alcohol consumption as significant risk factors for body burden. History of breastfeeding lowered the body burden. Limited evidence was found of increased risk among minority women independent of other risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative: health-risk behaviours on nutrition and physical activity in 6-9-year-old schoolchildren.

PubMed

Wijnhoven, Trudy M A; van Raaij, Joop M A; Yngve, Agneta; Sjöberg, Agneta; Kunešová, Marie; Duleva, Vesselka; Petrauskiene, Ausra; Rito, Ana I; Breda, João

2015-12-01

To assess to what extent eight behavioural health risks related to breakfast and food consumption and five behavioural health risks related to physical activity, screen time and sleep duration are present among schoolchildren, and to examine whether health-risk behaviours are associated with obesity. Cross-sectional design as part of the WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (school year 2007/2008). Children's behavioural data were reported by their parents and children's weight and height measured by trained fieldworkers. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses were performed. Primary schools in Bulgaria, Lithuania, Portugal and Sweden; paediatric clinics in the Czech Republic. Nationally representative samples of 6-9-year-olds (n 15 643). All thirteen risk behaviours differed statistically significantly across countries. Highest prevalence estimates of risk behaviours were observed in Bulgaria and lowest in Sweden. Not having breakfast daily and spending screen time ≥2 h/d were clearly positively associated with obesity. The same was true for eating 'foods like pizza, French fries, hamburgers, sausages or meat pies' >3 d/week and playing outside <1 h/d. Surprisingly, other individual unhealthy eating or less favourable physical activity behaviours showed either no or significant negative associations with obesity. A combination of multiple less favourable physical activity behaviours showed positive associations with obesity, whereas multiple unhealthy eating behaviours combined did not lead to higher odds of obesity. Despite a categorization based on international health recommendations, individual associations of the thirteen health-risk behaviours with obesity were not consistent, whereas presence of multiple physical activity-related risk behaviours was clearly associated with higher odds of obesity.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Pilot of a computer-based brief multiple-health behavior intervention for college students.

PubMed

Moore, Michele J; Werch, Chudley E; Bian, Hui

2012-01-01

Given the documented multiple health risks college students engage in, and the dearth of effective programs addressing them, the authors developed a computer-based brief multiple-health behavior intervention. This study reports immediate outcomes and feasibility of a pilot of this program. Two hundred students attending a midsized university participated. Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention or control program, both delivered via computer. Immediate feedback was collected with the computer program. Results indicate that the intervention had an early positive impact on alcohol and cigarette use intentions, as well as related constructs underlying the Behavior-Image Model specific to each of the 3 substances measured. Based on the implementation process, the program proved to be feasible to use and acceptable to the population. Results support the potential efficacy of the intervention to positively impact behavioral intentions and linkages between health promoting and damaging behaviors among college students.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods research of nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Handing; Liang, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Yang, Jianfeng; Liu, Weidong; Lei, Dina

2017-01-01

2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant severe accident was caused by both earthquake and tsunami, which results in large amount of radioactive nuclides release. That accident has caused the radioactive contamination on the surrounding environment. Although this accident probability is extremely small, once such an accident happens that is likely to release a lot of radioactive materials into the environment, and cause radiation contamination. Therefore, studying accidents consequences is important and essential to improve nuclear power plant design and management. Level 3 PSA methods of nuclear power plant can be used to analyze radiological consequences, and quantify risk to the public health effects around nuclear power plants. Based on multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods studies of nuclear power plant, and the description of the multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA technology roadmap and important technical elements, as well as taking a coastal nuclear power plant as the reference site, we analyzed the impact of off-site consequences of nuclear power plant severe accidents caused by multiple external hazards. At last we discussed the impact of off-site consequences probabilistic risk studies and its applications under multiple external hazards compound conditions, and explained feasibility and reasonableness of emergency plans implementation.

Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: clinicians' current practice and future needs.

PubMed

Collins, Ian M; Steel, Emma; Mann, G Bruce; Emery, Jon D; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Trainer, Alison; Butow, Phyllis; Pirotta, Marie; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Hopper, John; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Keogh, Louise A

2014-10-01

Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies

PubMed Central

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A.; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S.; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Pencina, Michael J.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2013-01-01

Objective Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. Results The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ= 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004–0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10–1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Conclusion Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. PMID:22789513

Long-term treatment risks in multiple sclerosis: risk knowledge and risk perception in a large cohort of mitoxantrone-treated patients.

PubMed

Hofmann, A; Stellmann, J P; Kasper, J; Ufer, F; Elias, W G; Pauly, I; Repenthin, J; Rosenkranz, T; Weber, T; Köpke, S; Heesen, C

2013-06-01

Balancing treatment benefits and risks is part of a shared decision-making process before initiating any treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Patients understand, appreciate and profit from evidence-based patient information (EBPI). While these processes are well known, long-term risk awareness and risk processing of patients has not been studied. Mitoxantrone treatment in MS is associated with long-term major potential harms - leukaemia (LK) and cardiotoxicity (CT). The risk knowledge and perception among patients currently or previously treated with mitoxantrone is unknown. The objective of this article is to conduct a retrospective cohort study in greater Hamburg, Germany, to estimate risk awareness and perception in MS patients treated with mitoxantrone. MS patients with at least one dose of mitoxantrone between 1991 and 2010 from six major MS centres in greater Hamburg received a questionnaire assessing risk awareness and perception as well as a written EBPI about mitoxantrone-associated LK and CT. Fifty-one per cent in the cohort of n = 575 patients returned the questionnaire. Forty per cent correctly estimated the risk of LK (CT 16%); 56% underestimated the risk (CT 82%). Reading the information increased the accuracy of LK risk estimation, and patients did not report an increase of worries. The EBPI was appreciated and recommended by 85%. Risk awareness of mitoxantrone-treated patients is insufficient, but can be increased by EBPI without increasing worries. Continued patient information during and after treatment should be implemented in management algorithms.

Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

2016-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical specificity.

Comparisons of survival predictions using survival risk ratios based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Abbreviated Injury Scale trauma diagnosis codes.

PubMed

Clarke, John R; Ragone, Andrew V; Greenwald, Lloyd

2005-09-01

We conducted a comparison of methods for predicting survival using survival risk ratios (SRRs), including new comparisons based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) versus Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) six-digit codes. From the Pennsylvania trauma center's registry, all direct trauma admissions were collected through June 22, 1999. Patients with no comorbid medical diagnoses and both ICD-9 and AIS injury codes were used for comparisons based on a single set of data. SRRs for ICD-9 and then for AIS diagnostic codes were each calculated two ways: from the survival rate of patients with each diagnosis and when each diagnosis was an isolated diagnosis. Probabilities of survival for the cohort were calculated using each set of SRRs by the multiplicative ICISS method and, where appropriate, the minimum SRR method. These prediction sets were then internally validated against actual survival by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic. The 41,364 patients had 1,224 different ICD-9 injury diagnoses in 32,261 combinations and 1,263 corresponding AIS injury diagnoses in 31,755 combinations, ranging from 1 to 27 injuries per patient. All conventional ICD-9-based combinations of SRRs and methods had better Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic fits than their AIS-based counterparts. The minimum SRR method produced better calibration than the multiplicative methods, presumably because it did not magnify inaccuracies in the SRRs that might occur with multiplication. Predictions of survival based on anatomic injury alone can be performed using ICD-9 codes, with no advantage from extra coding of AIS diagnoses. Predictions based on the single worst SRR were closer to actual outcomes than those based on multiplying SRRs.

Greater involvement and diversity of Internet gambling as a risk factor for problem gambling

PubMed Central

Russell, Alex; Blaszczynski, Alex; Hing, Nerilee

2015-01-01

Background: Concerns that Internet gambling has elevated the prevalence of problem gambling have not been substantiated; however, evidence suggests a subgroup of Internet gamblers do experience higher rates of gambling harms. Greater overall involvement in gambling appears to be predictive of harms. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between Internet gamblers with a single or multiple online gambling accounts, including their gambling behaviours, factors influencing their online gambling and risk of experiencing gambling problems. Methods: Internet gamblers (3178) responding to an online survey that assessed their gambling behaviour, and use of single or multiple online gambling accounts. Results: Results revealed that multiple account holders were more involved gamblers, gambling on more activities and more frequently, and had higher rates of gambling problems than single account holders. Multiple account holders selected gambling sites based on price, betting options, payout rates and game experience, whereas single account holders prioritized legality and consumer protection features. Conclusion: Results suggest two different types of Internet gamblers: one motivated to move between sites to optimize preferred experiences with a tendency to gamble in a more volatile manner; and a smaller, but more stable group less influenced by promotions and experiences, and seeking a reputable and safe gambling experience. As the majority of Internet gamblers use multiple accounts, more universal responsible gambling strategies are needed to assist gamblers to track and control their expenditure to reduce risks of harm. PMID:25745873

Mitigating circumstances: A model-based analysis of associations between risk environment and infrequent condom use among Chinese street-based sex workers.

PubMed

Chang, Ruth C; Hail-Jares, Katie; Zheng, Huang; He, Na; Bouey, Jennifer Z H

2018-01-01

Little is known about how freelance street-based sex workers navigate condom use while soliciting. Traditional behavioural model may fail to account for the complex risk environment that most street-based sex workers work within. We examine first the association of self-efficacy and the infrequent condom use, then we investigated the roles of clients and venues frequented on this association. Using a purposive chain-referral sampling method, we surveyed 248 street-based sex workers in Shanghai. The survey focused on sex workers HIV risk factors, sex work patterns, HIV knowledge, and related HIV self-efficacy. Clients types and behaviours, and characteristics of the venues frequented by these commercial sex workers were also collected. We conducted a series of multiple logistic regression models to explore how the association between a sex worker's self-efficacy with infrequent condom use change as client and venue characteristics were added to the models. We find that within the basic model, low self-efficacy was marginally associated with infrequent condom use (54.9% vs. 45.1%, AOR = 1.70, 95% CI = 0.95-3.03). As client- and venue- characteristics were added, the associations between self-efficacy and condom use were strengthened (AOR = 2.10 95% CI = 1.12-3.91 and 2.54 95% CI = 1.24-5.19 respectively). Those who reported middle-tiered income were more likely to report infrequent condom use compared to their peers of high income (AOR = 3.92 95% CI = 1.32-11.70) whereas such difference was not found between low income and high income sex workers. Visiting multiple venues and having migrant workers as clients were also associated with infrequent condom use. Our findings suggest sex worker's self-efficacy matters in their HIV risk behaviours only when environment characteristics were adjusted. Risk environment for street-based sex workers are complex. Programming addressing behavioural changes among female sex workers should adopt holistic, multilevel models with the consideration of risk environments.

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

Hospital costs during the first 5 years of life for multiples compared with singletons born after IVF or ICSI.

PubMed

van Heesch, M M J; Evers, J L H; van der Hoeven, M A H B M; Dumoulin, J C M; van Beijsterveldt, C E M; Bonsel, G J; Dykgraaf, R H M; van Goudoever, J B; Koopman-Esseboom, C; Nelen, W L D M; Steiner, K; Tamminga, P; Tonch, N; Torrance, H L; Dirksen, C D

2015-06-01

Do in vitro fertilization (IVF) multiples generate higher hospital costs than IVF singletons, from birth up to age 5? Hospital costs from birth up to age 5 were significantly higher among IVF/ICSI multiple children compared with IVF/ICSI singletons; however, when excluding the costs incurred during the birth admission period, hospital costs of multiples and singletons were comparable. Concern has risen over the long-term outcome of children born after IVF. The increased incidence of multiple births in IVF as a result of double-embryo transfer predisposes children to a poorer neonatal outcome such as preterm birth and low birthweight. As a consequence, IVF multiples require more medical care. Costs and consequences of poorer neonatal outcomes in multiples may also exist later in life. All 5497 children born from IVF in 2003-2005, whose parents received IVF or ICSI treatment in one of five participating Dutch IVF centers, served as a basis for a retrospective cohort study. Based on gestational age, birthweight, Apgar and congenital malformation, children were assigned to one of three risk strata (low-, moderate- or high-risk). To enhance the efficiency of the data collection, 816 multiples and 584 singletons were selected for 5-year follow-up based on stratified (risk) sampling. Parental informed consent was received of 322 multiples and 293 singletons. Individual-level hospital resource use data (hospitalization, outpatient visits and medical procedures) were retrieved from hospital information systems and patient charts for 302 multiples and 278 singletons. The risk of hospitalization (OR 4.9, 95% CI 3.3-7.0), outpatient visits (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.8-3.6) and medical procedures (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.2) was higher for multiples compared with singletons. The average hospital costs amounted to €10 018 and €2093 during the birth admission period (P < 0.001), €1131 and €696 after the birth admission period to the first birthday (not significant (n.s.)) and €1084 and €938 from the second to the fifth life year (n.s.) for multiples and singletons, respectively. Hospital costs from birth up to age 5 were 3.3-fold higher for multiples compared with singletons (P < 0.001). Among multiples and singletons, respectively, 90.8 and 76.2% of the total hospital costs were caused by hospital admission days and 8.9 and 25.2% of the total hospital costs during the first 5 years of life occurred after the first year of life. Resource use and costs outside the hospital were not included in the analysis. This study confirms the increased use of healthcare resources by IVF/ICSI multiples compared with IVF/ICSI singletons. Single-embryo transfer may result in substantial savings, particularly in the birth admission period. These savings need to be compared with the extra costs of additional embryo transfers needed to achieve a successful pregnancy. Besides costs, health outcomes of children born after single-embryo transfer should be compared with those born after double-embryo transfer. This study was supported by a research grant (grant number 80-82310-98-09094) from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw). There are no conflicts of interest in connection with this article. Not applicable. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Better big data.

PubMed

Al Kazzi, Elie S; Hutfless, Susan

2015-01-01

By 2018, Medicare payments will be tied to quality of care. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services currently use quality-based metric for some reimbursements through their different programs. Existing and future quality metrics will rely on risk adjustment to avoid unfairly punishing those who see the sickest, highest-risk patients. Despite the limitations of the data used for risk adjustment, there are potential solutions to improve the accuracy of these codes by calibrating data by merging databases and compiling information collected for multiple reporting programs to improve accuracy. In addition, healthcare staff should be informed about the importance of risk adjustment for quality of care assessment and reimbursement. As the number of encounters tied to value-based reimbursements increases in inpatient and outpatient care, coupled with accurate data collection and utilization, the methods used for risk adjustment could be expanded to better account for differences in the care delivered in diverse settings.

The Role of Text Messaging in Cardiovascular Risk Factor Optimization.

PubMed

Klimis, Harry; Khan, Mohammad Ehsan; Kok, Cindy; Chow, Clara K

2017-01-01

Many cases of CVD may be avoidable through lowering behavioural risk factors such as smoking and physical inactivity. Mobile health (mHealth) provides a novel opportunity to deliver cardiovascular prevention programs in a format that is potentially scalable. Here, we provide an overview of text messaging-based mHealth interventions in cardiovascular prevention. Text messaging-based interventions appear effective on a range of behavioural risk factors and can effect change on multiple risk factors-e.g. smoking, weight, blood pressure-simultaneously. For many texting studies, there are challenges in interpretation as many texting interventions are part of larger complex interventions making it difficult to determine the benefits of the separate components. Whilst there is evidence for text messaging improving cardiovascular risk factor levels in the short-term, future studies are needed to examine the durability of these effects and whether they can be translated to improvements in clinical care and outcomes.

Source preference and ambiguity aversion: models and evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging experiments.

PubMed

Chew, Soo Hong; Li, King King; Chark, Robin; Zhong, Songfa

2008-01-01

This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox & Tversky, 1995) in which identically distributed risks arising from different sources of uncertainty may engender distinct preferences for the same decision maker, contrary to classical economic thinking. The use of brain imaging enables sharper testing of the implications of different models of decision-making including Chew and Sagi's (2008) axiomatization of source preference. Using fMRI, brain activations were observed when subjects make 48 sequential binary choices among even-chance lotteries based on whether the trailing digits of a number of stock prices at market closing would be odd or even. Subsequently, subjects rate familiarity of the stock symbols. When contrasting brain activation from more familiar sources with those from less familiar ones, regions appearing to be more active include the putamen, medial frontal cortex, and superior temporal gyrus. ROI analysis showed that the activation patterns in the familiar-unfamiliar and unfamiliar-familiar contrasts are similar to those in the risk-ambiguity and ambiguity-risk contrasts reported by Hsu et al. (2005). This supports the conjecture that the risk-ambiguity distinction can be subsumed by the source preference hypothesis. Our odd-even design has the advantage of inducing the same "unambiguous" probability of half for each subject in each binary comparison. Our finding supports the implications of the Chew-Sagi model and rejects models based on global probabilistic sophistication, including rank-dependent models derived from non-additive probabilities, e.g., Choquet expected utility and cumulative prospect theory, as well as those based on multiple priors, e.g., alpha-maxmin. The finding in Hsu et al. (2005) that orbitofrontal cortex lesion patients display neither ambiguity aversion nor risk aversion offers further support to the Chew-Sagi model. Our finding also supports the Levy et al. (2007) contention of a single valuation system encompassing risk and ambiguity aversion. This is the first neuroimaging study of the source preference hypothesis using a design which can discriminate among decision models ranging from risk-based ones to those relying on multiple priors.

Analysis of correlation between pediatric asthma exacerbation and exposure to pollutant mixtures with association rule mining.

PubMed

Toti, Giulia; Vilalta, Ricardo; Lindner, Peggy; Lefer, Barry; Macias, Charles; Price, Daniel

2016-11-01

Traditional studies on effects of outdoor pollution on asthma have been criticized for questionable statistical validity and inefficacy in exploring the effects of multiple air pollutants, alone and in combination. Association rule mining (ARM), a method easily interpretable and suitable for the analysis of the effects of multiple exposures, could be of use, but the traditional interest metrics of support and confidence need to be substituted with metrics that focus on risk variations caused by different exposures. We present an ARM-based methodology that produces rules associated with relevant odds ratios and limits the number of final rules even at very low support levels (0.5%), thanks to post-pruning criteria that limit rule redundancy and control for statistical significance. The methodology has been applied to a case-crossover study to explore the effects of multiple air pollutants on risk of asthma in pediatric subjects. We identified 27 rules with interesting odds ratio among more than 10,000 having the required support. The only rule including only one chemical is exposure to ozone on the previous day of the reported asthma attack (OR=1.14). 26 combinatory rules highlight the limitations of air quality policies based on single pollutant thresholds and suggest that exposure to mixtures of chemicals is more harmful, with odds ratio as high as 1.54 (associated with the combination day0 SO 2 , day0 NO, day0 NO 2 , day1 PM). The proposed method can be used to analyze risk variations caused by single and multiple exposures. The method is reliable and requires fewer assumptions on the data than parametric approaches. Rules including more than one pollutant highlight interactions that deserve further investigation, while helping to limit the search field. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender-specific differences in high-risk sexual behaviors among methamphetamine users in Myanmar-China border city, Muse, Myanmar: who is at risk?

PubMed

Saw, Yu Mon; Saw, Thu Nandar; Chan, Nyein; Cho, Su Myat; Jimba, Masamine

2018-02-01

Methamphetamine (MA) use is a significant public health concern due to its negative effects on health. However, to date, no epidemiological research has examined high-risk sexual behaviors (inconsistent condom use, having multiple sexual partners and having a history of sexually transmitted infections) among MA users. This topic is particularly important in Myanmar, which is recognized as one of the key MA production countries in the Southeast Asia region. Therefore, this study examined factors associated with high-risk sexual behaviors among MA users in Muse city, Myanmar. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from January to March 2013 in Muse city, Northern Shan State, Myanmar. In total, 1183 MA users (772 male; 411 female) were recruited using respondent-driven sampling and a computer assisted self-interviewing method. Generalized estimating equation models were used to examine factors associated with high-risk sexual behaviors. A large proportion of MA users engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors (inconsistent condom use: males, 90.7%, females, 85.2%; multiple sexual partners: males, 94.2%, females, 47.2%; and history of STIs: males, 55.7%, females, 56.0%). Among males, being a multiple stimulants drug user (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] =1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.30-2.41) and being a client of sex workers (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.08-1.83) were risk factors for engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Among females, being a migrant worker (AOR = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.86-3.93) and being employed (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.13-2.18) were risk factors for engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors as well. High-risk sexual behaviors were particularly pronounced among both male and female MA users. MA prevention programs that reflect gender considerations should be developed to pay more attention to vulnerable populations such as migrants, clients of sex workers, and less educated female MA users.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

PubMed

Mavaddat, Nasim; Pharoah, Paul D P; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan; Brook, Mark N; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Peto, Julian; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dudbridge, Frank; Johnson, Nichola; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J; Brinton, Louise; Lissowska, Jolanta; Couch, Fergus J; Olson, Janet E; Vachon, Celine; Pankratz, Vernon S; Lambrechts, Diether; Wildiers, Hans; Van Ongeval, Chantal; van Limbergen, Erik; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Nord, Silje; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fasching, Peter A; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Newcomb, Polly; Titus, Linda; Egan, Kathleen M; Hunter, David J; Lindstrom, Sara; Tamimi, Rulla M; Kraft, Peter; Rahman, Nazneen; Turnbull, Clare; Renwick, Anthony; Seal, Sheila; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Benitez, Javier; Pilar Zamora, M; Arias Perez, Jose Ignacio; Menéndez, Primitiva; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Dörk, Thilo; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bernstein, Leslie; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Prokofyeva, Darya; Takhirova, Zalina; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Sutter, Christian; Yang, Rongxi; Schürmann, Peter; Bremer, Michael; Christiansen, Hans; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Hillemanns, Peter; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Menegaux, Florence; Sanchez, Marie; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Hopper, John L; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Sigurdson, Alice J; Doody, Michele M; Hamann, Ute; Torres, Diana; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Försti, Asta; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Marie Mulligan, Anna; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Balleine, Rosemary; Giles, Graham G; Milne, Roger L; McLean, Catriona; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Eilber, Ursula; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Hooning, Maartje J; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; Koppert, Linetta B; Carpenter, Jane; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Karina Dieffenbach, Aida; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Offit, Kenneth; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Rau-Murthy, Rohini; Dwek, Miriam; Swann, Ruth; Annie Perkins, Katherine; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Eccles, Diana M; Tapper, William J; Rafiq, Sajjad; John, Esther M; Whittemore, Alice S; Slager, Susan; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Toland, Amanda E; Yao, Song; Zheng, Wei; Halverson, Sandra L; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Rosario Alonso, M; Álvarez, Nuria; Herrero, Daniel; Tessier, Daniel C; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Francois; Luccarini, Craig; Baynes, Caroline; Ahmed, Shahana; Maranian, Mel; Healey, Catherine S; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Easton, Douglas F; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

2015-05-01

Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk Based on Profiling With Common Genetic Variants

PubMed Central

Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan; Brook, Mark N.; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Flyger, Henrik; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Peto, Julian; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dudbridge, Frank; Johnson, Nichola; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J.; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Figueroa, Jonine; Chanock, Stephen J.; Brinton, Louise; Lissowska, Jolanta; Couch, Fergus J.; Olson, Janet E.; Vachon, Celine; Pankratz, Vernon S.; Lambrechts, Diether; Wildiers, Hans; Van Ongeval, Chantal; van Limbergen, Erik; Kristensen, Vessela; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe; Nord, Silje; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fasching, Peter A.; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Burwinkel, Barbara; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Newcomb, Polly; Titus, Linda; Egan, Kathleen M.; Hunter, David J.; Lindstrom, Sara; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Kraft, Peter; Rahman, Nazneen; Turnbull, Clare; Renwick, Anthony; Seal, Sheila; Li, Jingmei; Liu, Jianjun; Humphreys, Keith; Benitez, Javier; Pilar Zamora, M.; Arias Perez, Jose Ignacio; Menéndez, Primitiva; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Dörk, Thilo; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Bernstein, Leslie; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A. E. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J.; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Reed, Malcolm W. R.; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Bermisheva, Marina; Prokofyeva, Darya; Takhirova, Zalina; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Sutter, Christian; Yang, Rongxi; Schürmann, Peter; Bremer, Michael; Christiansen, Hans; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Hillemanns, Peter; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Menegaux, Florence; Sanchez, Marie; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Hopper, John L.; Tsimiklis, Helen; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Sigurdson, Alice J.; Doody, Michele M.; Hamann, Ute; Torres, Diana; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Försti, Asta; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J.; Miller, Nicola; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Glendon, Gord; Marie Mulligan, Anna; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Balleine, Rosemary; Giles, Graham G.; Milne, Roger L.; McLean, Catriona; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Eilber, Ursula; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; Koppert, Linetta B.; Carpenter, Jane; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Karina Dieffenbach, Aida; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Offit, Kenneth; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Rau-Murthy, Rohini; Dwek, Miriam; Swann, Ruth; Annie Perkins, Katherine; Goldberg, Mark S.; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Eccles, Diana M.; Tapper, William J.; Rafiq, Sajjad; John, Esther M.; Whittemore, Alice S.; Slager, Susan; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Toland, Amanda E.; Yao, Song; Zheng, Wei; Halverson, Sandra L.; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Rosario Alonso, M.; Álvarez, Nuria; Herrero, Daniel; Tessier, Daniel C.; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, Francois; Luccarini, Craig; Baynes, Caroline; Ahmed, Shahana; Maranian, Mel; Healey, Catherine S.; Simard, Jacques; Hall, Per; Easton, Douglas F.; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

2015-01-01

Background: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. Methods: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. Results: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report. PMID:25855707

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

PubMed

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

Methodological issues underlying multiple decrement life table analysis.

PubMed

Mode, C J; Avery, R C; Littman, G S; Potter, R G

1977-02-01

In this paper, the actuarial method of multiple decrement life table analysis of censored, longitudinal data is examined. The discussion is organized in terms of the first segment of usage of an intrauterine device. Weaknesses of the actuarial approach are pointed out, and an alternative approach, based on the classical model of competing risks, is proposed. Finally, the actuarial and the alternative method of analyzing censored data are compared, using data from the Taichung Medical Study on Intrauterine Devices.

Dilemmas in Treating Smoldering Multiple Myeloma

PubMed Central

Ahn, Inhye E.; Mailankody, Sham; Korde, Neha; Landgren, Ola

2015-01-01

Novel therapies hold promise for high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM). Recent studies suggest that modern combination approaches can be options for high-risk SMM to obtain deep molecular responses with favorable toxicity profiles. Although pioneering treatment trials based on small numbers of patients suggest progression-free and overall survival benefits, application of the data to real-life practice remains to be validated. Therapeutic modulation of disease tempo, disease burden, clonal evolution, and tumor microenvironment in SMM remains to be understood and calls for reliable biomarkers reflective of disease biology. Here, we review studies that open a new management platform for SMM, address ongoing dilemmas in practice and under investigation, and highlight emerging scientific questions in the era of SMM treatment. PMID:25422486

Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

2018-01-01

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

Systematic Review: The Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Falls and Improve Balance in Adults With Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Gunn, Hilary; Markevics, Sophie; Haas, Bernhard; Marsden, Jonathan; Freeman, Jennifer

2015-10-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in reducing falls and/or improving balance as a falls risk in multiple sclerosis (MS). Computer-based and manual searches included the following medical subject heading keywords: "Multiple Sclerosis AND accidental falls" OR "Multiple Sclerosis AND postural balance" OR "Multiple Sclerosis AND exercise" OR "Multiple Sclerosis AND physical/physio therapy" NOT animals. All literature published to November 2014 with available full-text details were included. Studies were reviewed against the PICO (participants, interventions, comparisons, outcomes) selection criteria: P, adults with MS; I, falls management/balance rehabilitation interventions; C, randomized/quasi-randomized studies comparing intervention with usual care or placebo control; O, falls outcomes and measures of balance. Fifteen articles of the original 529 search results were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random-effects meta-analysis indicated a small decrease in falls risk (risk ratio, .74), although the 95% confidence interval (CI) crossed 1 (95% CI, .12-4.38). The pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) for balance outcomes was .55 (95% CI, .35-.74). SMD varied significantly between exercise subgroupings; gait, balance, and functional training interventions yielded the greatest pooled effect size (ES) (SMD=.82; 95% CI, 0.55-1.10). There was a moderate positive correlation between program volume (min/wk) and ES (Cohen's d) (r=.70, P=.009), and a moderate negative correlation between program duration in weeks and ES (r=-.62, P=.03). Variations in interventions and outcomes and methodological limitations mean that results must be viewed with caution. This review suggests that balance may improve through exercise interventions, but that the magnitude of the improvements achieved in existing programs may not be sufficient to impact falls outcomes. Supporting participants to achieve an appropriate intensity of practice of highly challenging balance activities appears to be critical to maximizing effectiveness. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation of a two-part unit-based multiple intervention: moving evidence-based practice into action.

PubMed

Rashotte, Judy; Thomas, Margot; Grégoire, Diane; Ledoux, Sheila

2008-06-01

This study examined the impact of a 2-part unit-based multiple intervention on the use by pediatric critical care nurses of best practice guidelines for pressure-ulcer prevention. A total of 23 nurses participated in a repeated-measures design pre- and post-intervention to address 2 questions: Is there a difference in nurses' evidence-based practices following implementation of an educational intervention only versus implementation of both an educational and an innovative intervention? Are the changes sustained 6 months after completion of the intervention? A significant change occurred in the implementation of 2 of 11 recommended practices following both interventions: assessment of risk of pressure ulcers using an age-appropriate tool (p < or = 0.001), and the documentation of same (p < or = 0.001). These changes may have been sustained. The findings bring to light the real challenges encountered when attempting to implement and evaluate multiple knowledge translation strategies associated with complex best practice guidelines in clinical practice.

The Heinz Nixdorf Recall study and its potential impact on the adoption of atherosclerosis imaging in European primary prevention guidelines.

PubMed

Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

2011-10-01

Non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging of the heart enables noninvasive quantification of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a surrogate marker of the atherosclerotic burden in the coronary artery tree. Multiple studies have underlined the ability of CAC score for individual risk stratification and, accordingly, the American Heart Association recommended cardiac CT for risk assessment in individuals with an intermediate risk of cardiovascular events as measured by Framingham Risk Score. However, limitations in transcribing risk stratification algorithms based on American cohort studies into European populations have been acknowledged in the past. Moreover, data on implications for reclassification into higher- or lower-risk groups based on CAC scores were lacking. The Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study is a population-based cohort study that investigated the ability of CAC scoring in risk prediction for major cardiovascular events above and beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. According to Heinz Nixdorf Recall findings, CAC can be used for reclassification, especially in those in the intermediate-risk group, to advise on lifestyle changes for the reclassified low-risk category, or to implement intensive treatments for the reclassified high-risk individuals. This article discusses the present findings of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study with respect to the current literature, risk stratification algorithms, and current European guidelines for risk prediction.

In vitro fertilization (IVF) versus gonadotropins followed by IVF as treatment for primary infertility: a cost-based decision analysis.

PubMed

Kansal-Kalra, Suleena; Milad, Magdy P; Grobman, William A

2005-09-01

To compare the economic consequences of proceeding directly to IVF to those of proceeding with gonadotropins followed by IVF in patients <35 years of age with unexplained infertility. A decision-tree model. The model incorporated the cost and success of each infertility regimen as well as the pregnancy-associated costs of singleton or multiple gestations and the risk and cost of cerebral palsy. Cost per live birth. Both treatment arms resulted in a >80% chance of birth. The gonadotropin arm was over four times more likely to result in a high-order multiple pregnancy (HOMP). Despite this, when the base case estimates were utilized, immediate IVF emerged as more costly per live birth. In sensitivity analysis, immediate IVF became less costly per live birth when IVF was more likely to achieve birth (55.1%) or cheaper (11,432 dollars) than our base case assumptions. After considering the risk and cost of HOMP, immediate IVF is more costly per live birth than a trial of gonadotropins prior to IVF.

Issues in Differential Response

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Ronald C.; Rycus, Judith S.; Saunders-Adams, Stacey M.; Hughes, Laura K.; Hughes, Kelli N.

2013-01-01

Differential response (DR), also referred to as alternative response (AR), family assessment response (FAR), or multiple track response, was developed to incorporate family-centered, strengths-based practices into child protective services (CPS), primarily by diverting lower risk families into an assessment track rather than requiring the…

Individual and Network Interventions With Injection Drug Users in 5 Ukraine Cities

PubMed Central

Lehman, Wayne E. K.; Latkin, Carl A.; Dvoryak, Sergey; Brewster, John T.; Royer, Mark S.; Sinitsyna, Larisa

2011-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated the effects of an individual intervention versus a network intervention on HIV-related injection and sexual risk behaviors among street-recruited opiate injection drug users in 5 Ukraine cities. Methods. Between 2004 and 2006, 722 opiate injection drug users were recruited to participate in interventions that were either individually based or based on a social network model in which peer educators intervened with their network members. Audio computer-assisted self-interview techniques were used to interview participants at baseline and follow-up. Results. Multiple logistic analyses controlling for baseline injection and sexual risks revealed that both peer educators and network members in the network intervention reduced injection-related risk behaviors significantly more than did those in the individually based intervention and that peer educators increased condom use significantly more than did those in the individual intervention. Individual intervention participants, however, showed significantly greater improvements than did network members with respect to reductions in sexual risk behaviors. Conclusions. Social network interventions may be more effective than individually based interventions in changing injection risk behaviors among both peer educators and network members. The effectiveness of network interventions in changing sexual risk behaviors is less clear, probably owing to network composition and inhibitions regarding discussing sexual risk behaviors. PMID:20395584

Innovative model uses a new brand of specialist to target the high-risk chronically ill.

PubMed

2002-06-01

Some patients simply can't be taken care of in your typical 15-minute office visit. That's why a Houston-based organization developed a new model--and a new specialist--to deal with the growing number of patients affected by multiple diagnoses and other factors putting them at high risk for hospital utilization. With early success, the approach has now attracted the attention of Medicare and other insurers.

High- and low-risk profiles for the development of multiple sclerosis within 10 years after optic neuritis: experience of the optic neuritis treatment trial.

PubMed

Beck, Roy W; Trobe, Jonathan D; Moke, Pamela S; Gal, Robin L; Xing, Dongyuan; Bhatti, M Tariq; Brodsky, Michael C; Buckley, Edward G; Chrousos, Georgia A; Corbett, James; Eggenberger, Eric; Goodwin, James A; Katz, Barrett; Kaufman, David I; Keltner, John L; Kupersmith, Mark J; Miller, Neil R; Nazarian, Sarkis; Orengo-Nania, Silvia; Savino, Peter J; Shults, William T; Smith, Craig H; Wall, Michael

2003-07-01

To identify factors associated with a high and low risk of developing multiple sclerosis after an initial episode of optic neuritis. Three hundred eighty-eight patients who experienced acute optic neuritis between July 1, 1988, and June 30, 1991, were followed up prospectively for the development of multiple sclerosis. Consenting patients were reassessed after 10 to 13 years. The 10-year risk of multiple sclerosis was 38% (95% confidence interval, 33%-43%). Patients (160) who had 1 or more typical lesions on the baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan of the brain had a 56% risk; those with no lesions (191) had a 22% risk (P<.001, log rank test). Among the patients who had no lesions on MRI, male gender and optic disc swelling were associated with a lower risk of multiple sclerosis, as was the presence of the following atypical features for optic neuritis: no light perception vision; absence of pain; and ophthalmoscopic findings of severe optic disc edema, peripapillary hemorrhages, or retinal exudates. The 10-year risk of multiple sclerosis following an initial episode of acute optic neuritis is significantly higher if there is a single brain MRI lesion; higher numbers of lesions do not appreciably increase that risk. However, even when brain lesions are seen on MRI, more than 40% of the patients will not develop clinical multiple sclerosis after 10 years. In the absence of MRI lesions, certain demographic and clinical features seem to predict a very low likelihood of developing multiple sclerosis. This natural history information is a critical input for estimating a patient's 10-year multiple sclerosis risk and for weighing the benefit of initiating prophylactic treatment at the time of optic neuritis or other initial demyelinating events in the central nervous system.

Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis: Genes, Environment, and a Comprehensive Therapeutic Approach.

PubMed

Cappa, Ryan; Theroux, Liana; Brenton, J Nicholas

2017-10-01

Pediatric multiple sclerosis is an increasingly recognized and studied disorder that accounts for 3% to 10% of all patients with multiple sclerosis. The risk for pediatric multiple sclerosis is thought to reflect a complex interplay between environmental and genetic risk factors. Environmental exposures, including sunlight (ultraviolet radiation, vitamin D levels), infections (Epstein-Barr virus), passive smoking, and obesity, have been identified as potential risk factors in youth. Genetic predisposition contributes to the risk of multiple sclerosis, and the major histocompatibility complex on chromosome 6 makes the single largest contribution to susceptibility to multiple sclerosis. With the use of large-scale genome-wide association studies, other non-major histocompatibility complex alleles have been identified as independent risk factors for the disease. The bridge between environment and genes likely lies in the study of epigenetic processes, which are environmentally-influenced mechanisms through which gene expression may be modified. This article will review these topics to provide a framework for discussion of a comprehensive approach to counseling and ultimately treating the pediatric patient with multiple sclerosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

STD and HIV risk factors among U.S. young adults: variations by gender, race, ethnicity and sexual orientation.

PubMed

Mojola, Sanyu A; Everett, Bethany

2012-06-01

STDs, including HIV, disproportionately affect individuals who have multiple minority identities. Understanding differences in STD risk factors across racial, ethnic and sexual minority groups, as well as genders, is important for tailoring public health interventions. Data from Waves 3 (2001-2002) and 4 (2007-2008) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health were used to develop population-based estimates of STD and HIV risk factors among 11,045 young adults (mean age, 29 at Wave 4), by gender, race and ethnicity, and sexual orientation (heterosexual, mixed-oriented, gay). Regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between risk factors and young adults' characteristics. Overall, sexual-minority women in each racial or ethnic group had a higher prevalence of sexual risk behaviors-including a history of multiple partners, forced sex and incarceration-than their heterosexual counterparts. Mixed-oriented women in each racial or ethnic group were more likely than heterosexual white women to have received an STD diagnosis (odds ratios, 1.8-6.4). Black men and sexual-minority men also appeared to be at heightened risk. Gay men in all racial and ethnic groups were significantly more likely than heterosexual white men to report having received an STD diagnosis (2.3-8.3); compared with heterosexual white men, mixed-oriented black men had the highest odds of having received such a diagnosis (15.2). Taking account of multiple minority identities should be an important part of future research and intervention efforts for STD and HIV prevention. Copyright © 2012 by the Guttmacher Institute.

Quantifying Multiple Work-Related Psychosocial Risk Factors: Proposal for a Composite Indicator Based on the COPSOQ II.

PubMed

Stauder, Adrienne; Nistor, Katalin; Zakor, Tünde; Szabó, Anita; Nistor, Anikó; Ádám, Szilvia; Konkolÿ Thege, Barna

2017-12-01

To determine national reference values for the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) across occupational sectors and develop a composite score to estimate the cumulative effect of multiple work-related stressors, in order to facilitate the implementation of occupational health directives on psychosocial risk assessment. Cross-sectional data was collected via an online questionnaire. The sample included 13,104 individuals and was representative of the general Hungarian adult working population in terms of gender, age, education, and occupation. Mean scores were calculated for 18 scales on work environment and for 5 outcome scales of the COPSOQ II across 18 occupational sectors. We analyzed the association between a composite psychosocial risk score (CPRS), reflecting severity of exposure to multiple risk factors, and high stress, burnout, sleep troubles, and poor self-rated health. We found occupation-related differences in the mean scores on all COPSOQ II scales. Scores on the "Stress" scale ranged from 47.9 to 56.2, with the highest mean score in accommodation and food services sector. Variability was greatest with respect to emotional demands (range 40.3-67.6) and smallest with respect to role clarity (range 70.3-75.7). The prevalence of negative health outcomes increased with the CPRS. Five risk categories were formed, for which the odds ratio of negative outcomes ranged from 1.6 to 56.5. The sector-specific psychosocial risk profiles covering 18 work environmental factors can be used as a reference in organizational surveys and international comparisons. The CPRS proved to be a powerful predictor of self-reported negative health outcomes.

Anal intercourse without condoms among HIV-positive men who have sex with men recruited from a sexual networking web site, United States.

PubMed

Margolis, Andrew D; Joseph, Heather; Hirshfield, Sabina; Chiasson, Mary Ann; Belcher, Lisa; Purcell, David W

2014-12-01

The changing landscape of HIV prevention in the United States underscores the need to improve our ability to efficiently reach HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) who engage in behaviors that could transmit HIV. We examined the prevalence of anal intercourse (AI) without condoms with HIV-negative or unknown serostatus partners ("at-risk partners") among 1319 HIV-positive adult male members of a sexual networking Web site for MSM. Sexual behaviors and substance use were measured over a 60-day recall period. Logistic regression was used to identify correlates of insertive and receptive AI without condoms with at-risk partners. Approximately 25% of the men had been diagnosed as having HIV 12 months or less before study enrollment. Overall, 32% of men engaged in AI without condoms with at-risk partners. Multiple logistic regression identified behavioral predictors of insertive AI without condoms with at-risk partners, including HIV diagnosis within the last 12 months, sex with multiple male partners, substance use in conjunction with sex, and use of phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors. Receptive AI without condoms with at-risk partners was associated with younger age (19-24 years), residing outside metropolitan cities, substance use in conjunction with sex, and having multiple male partners. High levels of sexual risk were found among these MSM. Increased Internet-based HIV prevention marketing efforts and prevention strategies should be considered to efficiently reach HIV-positive MSM who engage in serodiscordant AI without condoms.

Maternal Risk Factors for Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders in a Province in Italy*

PubMed Central

Ceccanti, Mauro; Fiorentino, Daniela; Coriale, Giovanna; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Gossage, J. Phillip; Robinson, Luther K.; Manning, Melanie; Romeo, Marina; Hasken, Julie M.; Tabachnick, Barbara; Blankenship, Jason

2016-01-01

Background Maternal risk factors for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) in Italy and Mediterranean cultures need clarification, as there are few studies and most are plagued by inaccurate reporting of antenatal alcohol use. Methods Maternal interviews (n=905) were carried out in a population-based study of the prevalence and characteristics of FASD in the Lazio region of Italy which provided data for multivariate case control comparisons and multiple correlation models. Results Case control findings from interviews seven years post-partum indicate that mothers of children with FASD are significantly more likely than randomly-selected controls or community mothers to: be shorter; have higher body mass indexes (BMI); be married to a man with legal problems; report more drinking three months pre-pregnancy; engage in more current drinking and drinking alone; and have alcohol problems in her family. Logistic regression analysis of multiple candidate predictors of a FASD diagnosis indicates that alcohol problems in the child’s family is the most significant risk factor, making a diagnosis within the continuum of FASD 9 times more likely (95% C.I. = 1.6 to 50.7). Sequential multiple regression analysis of the child’s neuropsychological performance also identifies alcohol problems in the child’s family as the only significant maternal risk variable (p<.001) when controlling for other potential risk factors. Conclusions Underreporting of prenatal alcohol use has been demonstrated among Italian and other Mediterranean antenatal samples, and it was suspected in this sample. Nevertheless, several significant maternal risk factors for FASD have been identified. PMID:25456331

Maternal risk factors for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders in a province in Italy.

PubMed

Ceccanti, Mauro; Fiorentino, Daniela; Coriale, Giovanna; Kalberg, Wendy O; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Gossage, J Phillip; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie; Romeo, Marina; Hasken, Julie M; Tabachnick, Barbara; Blankenship, Jason; May, Philip A

2014-12-01

Maternal risk factors for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) in Italy and Mediterranean cultures need clarification, as there are few studies and most are plagued by inaccurate reporting of antenatal alcohol use. Maternal interviews (n = 905) were carried out in a population-based study of the prevalence and characteristics of FASD in the Lazio region of Italy which provided data for multivariate case control comparisons and multiple correlation models. Case control findings from interviews seven years post-partum indicate that mothers of children with FASD are significantly more likely than randomly-selected controls or community mothers to: be shorter; have higher body mass indexes (BMI); be married to a man with legal problems; report more drinking three months pre-pregnancy; engage in more current drinking and drinking alone; and have alcohol problems in her family. Logistic regression analysis of multiple candidate predictors of a FASD diagnosis indicates that alcohol problems in the child's family is the most significant risk factor, making a diagnosis within the continuum of FASD 9 times more likely (95%C.I. = 1.6 to 50.7). Sequential multiple regression analysis of the child's neuropsychological performance also identifies alcohol problems in the child's family as the only significant maternal risk variable (p < .001) when controlling for other potential risk factors. Underreporting of prenatal alcohol use has been demonstrated among Italian and other Mediterranean antenatal samples, and it was suspected in this sample. Nevertheless, several significant maternal risk factors for FASD have been identified. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Cumulative Impact of HIV and Multiple Concurrent Human Papillomavirus Infections on the Risk of Cervical Dysplasia

PubMed Central

Adler, David H.; Wallace, Melissa; Bennie, Thola; Abar, Beau; Meiring, Tracy L.; Williamson, Anna-Lise; Bekker, Linda-Gail

2016-01-01

Infection with HIV is known to increase the risk of cervical cancer. In addition, evidence suggests that concurrent infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes increases the risk of cervical dysplasia more than infection with a single HPV genotype. However, the impact of the combination of HIV coinfection and presence of multiple concurrent HPV infections on the risk of cervical dysplasia is uncertain. We compared the results of HPV testing and Pap smears between HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected young women to assess the cumulative impact of these two conditions. We found that both HIV and the presence of multiple concurrent HPV infections are associated with increased risk of associated Pap smear abnormality and that the impact of these two risk factors may be additive. PMID:26997954

Translating Evidence Based Violence and Drug Use Prevention to Obesity Prevention: Development and Construction of the Pathways Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K.; Riggs, Nathaniel R.; Pentz, Mary Ann

2012-01-01

Effective school-based obesity prevention programs are needed to prevent and reduce the growing obesity risk among youth. Utilizing the evidence-rich areas of violence and substance use prevention, translation science may provide an efficient means for developing curricula across multiple health behaviors. This paper introduces Pathways to Health,…

The Breathmobile[TM]: A Novel Comprehensive School-Based Mobile Asthma Care Clinic for Urban Underprivileged Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liao, Otto; Morphew, Tricia; Amaro, Silvia; Galant, Stanley P.

2006-01-01

Urban minority children have higher rates of asthma morbidity due to multiple factors. Many school-based programs have been funded to improve asthma management, especially for these "high-risk" inner-city children with asthma. Here they report the outcomes of the Children's Hospital of Orange County Breathmobile program, which is a school-based…

Empirically Based Strategies for Preventing Juvenile Delinquency.

PubMed

Pardini, Dustin

2016-04-01

Juvenile crime is a serious public health problem that results in significant emotional and financial costs for victims and society. Using etiologic models as a guide, multiple interventions have been developed to target risk factors thought to perpetuate the emergence and persistence of delinquent behavior. Evidence suggests that the most effective interventions tend to have well-defined treatment protocols, focus on therapeutic approaches as opposed to external control techniques, and use multimodal cognitive-behavioral treatment strategies. Moving forward, there is a need to develop effective policies and procedures that promote the widespread adoption of evidence-based delinquency prevention practices across multiple settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi -risk assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, Nino; Varazanashvili, Otar; Amiranashvili, Avtandil; Tsereteli, Emili; Elizbarashvili, Elizbar; Saluqvadze, Manana; Dolodze, Jemal

2013-04-01

Work presented here was initiated by national GNSF project " Reducing natural disasters multiple risk: a positive factor for Georgia development " and two international projects: NATO SFP 983038 "Seismic hazard and Rusk assessment for Southern Caucasus-eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and EMME " Earthquake Model for Middle east Region". Methodology for estimation of "general" vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk to natural hazards (namely, earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, flash floods, mudflows, drought, hurricanes, frost, hail) where developed for Georgia. The electronic detailed databases of natural disasters were created. These databases contain the parameters of hazardous phenomena that caused natural disasters. The magnitude and intensity scale of the mentioned disasters are reviewed and the new magnitude and intensity scales are suggested for disasters for which the corresponding formalization is not yet performed. The associated economic losses were evaluated and presented in monetary terms for these hazards. Based on the hazard inventory, an approach was developed that allowed for the calculation of an overall vulnerability value for each individual hazard type, using the Gross Domestic Product per unit area (applied to population) as the indicator for elements at risk exposed. The correlation between estimated economic losses, physical exposure and the magnitude for each of the six types of hazards has been investigated in detail by using multiple linear regression analysis. Economic losses for all past events and historical vulnerability were estimated. Finally, the spatial distribution of general vulnerability was assessed, and the expected maximum economic loss was calculated as well as a multi-risk map was set-up.

Prediction of peripheral neuropathy in multiple myeloma patients receiving bortezomib and thalidomide: a genetic study based on a single nucleotide polymorphism array.

PubMed

García-Sanz, Ramón; Corchete, Luis Antonio; Alcoceba, Miguel; Chillon, María Carmen; Jiménez, Cristina; Prieto, Isabel; García-Álvarez, María; Puig, Noemi; Rapado, Immaculada; Barrio, Santiago; Oriol, Albert; Blanchard, María Jesús; de la Rubia, Javier; Martínez, Rafael; Lahuerta, Juan José; González Díaz, Marcos; Mateos, María Victoria; San Miguel, Jesús Fernando; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Sarasquete, María Eugenia

2017-12-01

Bortezomib- and thalidomide-based therapies have significantly contributed to improved survival of multiple myeloma (MM) patients. However, treatment-induced peripheral neuropathy (TiPN) is a common adverse event associated with them. Risk factors for TiPN in MM patients include advanced age, prior neuropathy, and other drugs, but there are conflicting results about the role of genetics in predicting the risk of TiPN. Thus, we carried out a genome-wide association study based on more than 300 000 exome single nucleotide polymorphisms in 172 MM patients receiving therapy involving bortezomib and thalidomide. We compared patients developing and not developing TiPN under similar treatment conditions (GEM05MAS65, NCT00443235). The highest-ranking single nucleotide polymorphism was rs45443101, located in the PLCG2 gene, but no significant differences were found after multiple comparison correction (adjusted P = .1708). Prediction analyses, cytoband enrichment, and pathway analyses were also performed, but none yielded any significant findings. A copy number approach was also explored, but this gave no significant results either. In summary, our study did not find a consistent genetic component associated with TiPN under bortezomib and thalidomide therapies that could be used for prediction, which makes clinical judgment essential in the practical management of MM treatment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Childhood Trauma and Illicit Drug Use in Adolescence: A Population-Based National Comorbidity Survey Replication–Adolescent Supplement Study

PubMed Central

Carliner, Hannah; Keyes, Katherine M.; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Meyers, Jacquelyn L.; Dunn, Erin C.; Martins, Silvia S.

2016-01-01

Objective Although potentially traumatic events (PTEs) are established risk factors for substance use disorders among adults, little is known about associations with drug use during adolescence, an important developmental stage for drug use prevention. We examined whether childhood PTEs were associated with illicit drug use among a representative sample of US adolescents. Method Data were drawn from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication–Adolescent Supplement (NCS-A), which included adolescents aged 13-18 years (N=9,956). Weighted logistic regression models estimated risk ratios for lifetime use of marijuana, cocaine, nonmedical prescription drugs, other drugs, and multiple drugs. Results Exposure to any PTE prior to age 11 was reported by 36% of the sample and was associated with higher risk for use of marijuana (risk ratio [RR] = 1.50), cocaine (RR = 2.78), prescription drugs (RR=1.80), other drugs (RR=1.90), and multiple drugs (RR=1.74). A positive monotonic relationship was observed between number of PTEs and marijuana, other drug, and multiple drug use. Interpersonal violence was associated with all drug use outcomes. Accidents and unspecified events were associated with higher risk for marijuana, cocaine, and prescription drug use. Conclusion Potentially traumatic events in childhood are associated with risk for illicit drug use among US adolescents. These findings add to the literature by illustrating a potentially modifiable health behavior that may be a target for intervention; and that adolescents with a trauma history are a high-risk group for illicit drug use and may benefit from trauma-focused prevention efforts that specifically address traumatic memories and coping strategies for dealing with stressful life events. PMID:27453084

Childhood Trauma and Illicit Drug Use in Adolescence: A Population-Based National Comorbidity Survey Replication-Adolescent Supplement Study.

PubMed

Carliner, Hannah; Keyes, Katherine M; McLaughlin, Katie A; Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Dunn, Erin C; Martins, Silvia S

2016-08-01

Although potentially traumatic events (PTEs) are established risk factors for substance use disorders among adults, little is known about associations with drug use during adolescence, an important developmental stage for drug use prevention. We examined whether childhood PTEs were associated with illicit drug use among a representative sample of US adolescents. Data were drawn from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication-Adolescent Supplement (NCS-A), which included adolescents aged 13 to 18 years (N = 9,956). Weighted logistic regression models estimated risk ratios for lifetime use of marijuana, cocaine, nonmedical prescription drugs, other drugs, and multiple drugs. Exposure to any PTE before age 11 years was reported by 36% of the sample and was associated with higher risk for use of marijuana (risk ratio [RR] = 1.50), cocaine (RR = 2.78), prescription drugs (RR = 1.80), other drugs (RR = 1.90), and multiple drugs (RR = 1.74). A positive monotonic relationship was observed between number of PTEs and marijuana, other drug, and multiple drug use. Interpersonal violence was associated with all drug use outcomes. Accidents and unspecified events were associated with higher risk for marijuana, cocaine, and prescription drug use. Potentially traumatic events in childhood are associated with risk for illicit drug use among US adolescents. These findings add to the literature by illustrating a potentially modifiable health behavior that may be a target for intervention. The results also highlight that adolescents with a trauma history are a high-risk group for illicit drug use and may benefit from trauma-focused prevention efforts that specifically address traumatic memories and coping strategies for dealing with stressful life events. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Prenatal risk calculation: comparison between Fast Screen pre I plus software and ViewPoint software. Evaluation of the risk calculation algorithms].

PubMed

Morin, Jean-François; Botton, Eléonore; Jacquemard, François; Richard-Gireme, Anouk

2013-01-01

The Fetal medicine foundation (FMF) has developed a new algorithm called Prenatal Risk Calculation (PRC) to evaluate Down syndrome screening based on free hCGβ, PAPP-A and nuchal translucency. The peculiarity of this algorithm is to use the degree of extremeness (DoE) instead of the multiple of the median (MoM). The biologists measuring maternal seric markers on Kryptor™ machines (Thermo Fisher Scientific) use Fast Screen pre I plus software for the prenatal risk calculation. This software integrates the PRC algorithm. Our study evaluates the data of 2.092 patient files of which 19 show a fœtal abnormality. These files have been first evaluated with the ViewPoint software based on MoM. The link between DoE and MoM has been analyzed and the different calculated risks compared. The study shows that Fast Screen pre I plus software gives the same risk results as ViewPoint software, but yields significantly fewer false positive results.

Single and Multiple Suicide Attempts and Associated Health Risk Factors in New Hampshire Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenberg, Harriet J.; Jankowski, Mary K.; Sengupta, Anjana; Wolfe, Rosemarie S.; Wolford, George L., II; Rosenberg, Stanley D.

2005-01-01

In this study we examined self-reported suicide attempts and their relationship to other health risk factors in a community sample of 16,644 adolescents. Fifteen percent endorsed suicide attempts (10% single; 5% multiple attempts). We hypothesized that multiple attempters would show higher prevalence of comorbid health risks than single or…

Multiple Threats: The Co-Occurrence of Teen Health Risk Behaviors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindberg, Laura Duberstein; Boggess, Scott; Williams, Sean

This document presents a portrait of multiple risk-taking among teens. Using recent data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and the 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males, the report describes the extent to which teens engage in multiple health risk behaviors and contrast it with the extent to which teens…

Mass Spectrometric Immunoassay and Multiple Reaction Monitoring as Targeted MS-based Quantitative Approaches in Biomarker Development: Potential Applications to Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes

PubMed Central

Yassine, Hussein; Borges, Chad R.; Schaab, Matthew R.; Billheimer, Dean; Stump, Craig; Reaven, Peter; Lau, Serrine S.; Nelson, Randall

2014-01-01

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD)—the leading cause of death in the US. Yet not all subjects with T2DM are at equal risk for CVD complications; the challenge lies in identifying those at greatest risk. Therapies directed towards treating conventional risk factors have failed to significantly reduce this residual risk in T2DM patients. Thus newer targets and markers are needed for the development and testing of novel therapies. Herein we review two complementary mass spectrometry-based approaches—Mass Spectrometric Immunoassay (MSIA) and tandem mass spectrometry as multiple reaction monitoring (MRM)—for the analysis of plasma proteins and post translational modifications (PTMs) of relevance to T2DM and CVD. Together, these complementary approaches allow for high-throughput monitoring of many PTMs and the absolute quantification of proteins near the low picomolar range. In this review article, we discuss the clinical relevance of the HDL proteome and Apolipoprotein A-I PTMs to T2DM and CVD as well as provide illustrative MSIA and MRM data on high density lipoprotein (HDL) proteins from T2DM patients to provide examples of how these mass spectrometry approaches can be applied to gain new insight regarding cardiovascular risk factors. Also discussed are the reproducibility, interpretation and limitations of each technique with an emphasis on their capacities to facilitate the translation of new biomarkers into clinical practice. PMID:23696124

Persistence of nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus identifies patients at lower risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma: results from a large multicenter cohort.

PubMed

Gaddam, Srinivas; Singh, Mandeep; Balasubramanian, Gokulakrishnan; Thota, Prashanthi; Gupta, Neil; Wani, Sachin; Higbee, April D; Mathur, Sharad C; Horwhat, John D; Rastogi, Amit; Young, Patrick E; Cash, Brooks D; Bansal, Ajay; Vargo, John J; Falk, Gary W; Lieberman, David A; Sampliner, Richard E; Sharma, Prateek

2013-09-01

Recent population-based studies have shown a low risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE). We evaluated whether persistence of NDBE over multiple consecutive surveillance endoscopic examinations could be used in risk stratification of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). We performed a multicenter outcomes study of a large cohort of patients with BE. Based on the number of consecutive surveillance endoscopies showing NDBE, we identified 5 groups of patients. Patients in group 1 were found to have NDBE at their first esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). Patients in group 2 were found to have NDBE on their first 2 consecutive EGDs. Similarly, patients in groups 3, 4, and 5 were found to have NDBE on 3, 4, and 5 consecutive surveillance EGDs. A logistic regression model was built to determine whether persistence of NDBE independently protected against development of cancer. Of a total of 3515 patients with BE, 1401 patients met the inclusion criteria (93.3% white; 87.5% men; median age, 60 ±17 years). The median follow-up period was 5 ± 3.9 years (7846 patient-years). The annual risk of EAC in groups 1 to 5 was 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.16%, 0.2%, and 0.11%, respectively (P for trend = .03). After adjusting for age, sex, and length of BE, persistence of NDBE, based on multiple surveillance endoscopies, was associated with a gradually lower likelihood of progression to EAC. Persistence of NDBE over several endoscopic examinations identifies patients who are at low risk for development of EAC. These findings support lengthening surveillance intervals or discontinuing surveillance of patients with persistent NDBE. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for multiple pulmonary oligometastases: Analysis of number and timing of repeat SBRT as impact factors on treatment safety and efficacy.

PubMed

Klement, R J; Hoerner-Rieber, J; Adebahr, S; Andratschke, N; Blanck, O; Boda-Heggemann, J; Duma, M; Eble, M J; Eich, H C; Flentje, M; Gerum, S; Hass, P; Henkenberens, C; Hildebrandt, G; Imhoff, D; Kahl, K H; Klass, N D; Krempien, R; Lohaus, F; Petersen, C; Schrade, E; Wendt, T G; Wittig, A; Guckenberger, M

2018-03-03

Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for oligometastatic disease is characterized by an excellent safety profile; however, experiences are mostly based on treatment of one single metastasis. It was the aim of this study to evaluate safety and efficacy of SBRT for multiple pulmonary metastases. This study is based on a retrospective database of the DEGRO stereotactic working group, consisting of 637 patients with 858 treatments. Cox regression and logistic regression were used to analyze the association between the number of SBRT treatments or the number and the timing of repeat SBRT courses with overall survival (OS) and the risk of early death. Out of 637 patients, 145 patients were treated for multiple pulmonary metastases; 88 patients received all SBRT treatments within one month whereas 57 patients were treated with repeat SBRT separated by at least one month. Median OS for the total patient population was 23.5 months and OS was not significantly influenced by the overall number of SBRT treatments or the number and timing of repeat SBRT courses. The risk of early death within 3 and 6 months was not increased in patients treated with multiple SBRT treatments, and no grade 4 or grade 5 toxicity was observed in these patients. In appropriately selected patients, synchronous SBRT for multiple pulmonary oligometastases and repeat SBRT may have a comparable safety and efficacy profile compared to SBRT for one single oligometastasis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alcohol demand and risk preference.

PubMed

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-12-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

Body Mass Index and Physical Activity at Different Ages and Risk of Multiple Myeloma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Jonathan N.; Moore, Steven C.; Lim, Unhee; Park, Yikyung; Baris, Dalsu; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Matthews, Charles E.; Gibson, Todd M.; Hartge, Patricia; Purdue, Mark P.

2013-01-01

Several studies have reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma associated with excess body weight. We investigated the risk of multiple myeloma in relation to separate measures of adiposity and energy balance at different ages in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large prospective cohort study in the United States. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1995–1996; n = 485,049), and a subset of participants completed a second questionnaire (1996–1997; n = 305,618) in which we solicited more detailed exposure information. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the risk of multiple myeloma (overall, n = 813; subset, n = 489) in relation to several measures of obesity and leisure time physical activity. Multiple myeloma risk was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI) at cohort entry (per 5-kg/m2 increase, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.22); similar associations were observed for BMI at age 50 years (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28), age 35 years (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36), and age 18 years (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.32) without adjustment for baseline BMI. Risk of multiple myeloma was not associated with physical activity level at any age. These findings support the hypothesis that excess body weight, both in early adulthood and later in life, is a risk factor for multiple myeloma and suggest that maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life may reduce multiple myeloma risk. PMID:23543160

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

IMPACT OF SCHOOL-BASED HIV PREVENTION PROGRAM IN POST-CONFLICT LIBERIA

PubMed Central

Atwood, Katharine A.; Kennedy, Stephen B.; Shamblen, Steve; Tegli, Jemee; Garber, Salome; Fahnbulleh, Pearl W.; Korvah, Prince M.; Kolubah, Moses; Mulbah-Kamara, Comfort; Fulton, Shannon

2013-01-01

This paper presents findings of a feasibility study to adapt and evaluate the impact of an evidence-based HIV prevention intervention on sexual risk behaviors of in-school 6th grade youth in post-conflict Liberia (n = 812). The study used an attention-matched, group randomized controlled trial. Four matched pairs of elementary/middle schools in Monrovia, Liberia, were randomly assigned to either an adapted eight-module HIV prevention or a general health curriculum. Three- and nine-month impacts of the intervention on sexual risk behaviors and on mediating variables are presented. The intervention significantly impacted protective peer norms and positive condom attitudes and increased frequency of condom use at the nine-month follow-up. The intervention did not impact sexual initiation or multiple sex partnerships. Future intervention research should address the salient pressures that are unique to post-conflict settings and include longer follow-up time periods and smaller class sizes to meaningfully impact sexual initiation and multiple sex partnerships. PMID:22339146

Daclizumab for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Herwerth, Marina; Hemmer, Bernhard

2017-06-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. Over the last two decades, the number of therapeutic options for the treatment of relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) has been constantly growing, providing new treatment options to patients. Areas covered: Herein, the authors review the recently approved monoclonal antibody daclizumab for the treatment of RRMS. Based on original articles, they discuss its mode of action and evaluate its efficacy and safety profile compared to other available agents. Expert opinion: The IL-2 receptor modulator daclizumab is a new highly effective agent for the treatment of RRMS with novel immunomodulatory properties. Compared to interferon-beta i.m., daclizumab is more effective in reducing relapse rates and MRI activity. However, its use is limited by the risk of autoimmune disorders and hepatotoxicity. Similar to other monoclonal antibodies for RRMS, therapy with daclizumab needs a strict preselection and monitoring of patients based on individual risk benefit assessment. Given its substantial effectiveness, daclizumab can be an attractive option for patients with highly active MS.

Unprotected sex of homeless youth: results from a multilevel dyadic analysis of individual, social network, and relationship factors.

PubMed

Kennedy, David P; Tucker, Joan S; Green, Harold D; Golinelli, Daniela; Ewing, Brett

2012-10-01

Homeless youth have elevated risk of HIV through sexual behavior. This project investigates the multiple levels of influence on unprotected sex among homeless youth, including social network, individual, and partner level influences. Findings are based on analyses of an exploratory, semi-structured interview (n = 40) and a structured personal network interview (n = 240) with randomly selected homeless youth in Los Angeles. Previous social network studies of risky sex by homeless youth have collected limited social network data from non-random samples and have not distinguished sex partner influences from other network influences. The present analyses have identified significant associations with unprotected sex at multiple levels, including individual, partner, and, to a lesser extent, the social network. Analyses also distinguished between youth who did or did not want to use condoms when they had unprotected sex. Implications for social network based HIV risk interventions with homeless youth are discussed.

Unprotected Sex of Homeless Youth: Results from a Multilevel Analysis of Individual, Social Network, and Relationship Factors

PubMed Central

Kennedy, David P.; Tucker, Joan S.; Green, Harold D.; Golinelli, Daniela; Ewing, Brett

2012-01-01

Homeless youth have elevated risk of HIV through sexual behavior. This project investigates the multiple levels of influence on unprotected sex among homeless youth, including social network, individual, and partner level influences. Findings are based on analyses of an exploratory, semi-structured interview (n=40) and a structured personal network interview (n=240) with randomly selected homeless youth in Los Angeles. Previous social network studies of risky sex by homeless youth have collected limited social network data from non-random samples and have not distinguished sex partner influences from other network influences. The present analyses have identified significant associations with unprotected sex at multiple levels, including individual, partner, and, to a lesser extent, the social network. Analyses also distinguished between youth who wished they used condoms after having unprotected sex and youth who did not regret having unprotected sex. Implications for social network based HIV risk interventions with homeless youth are discussed. PMID:22610421

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Endemic: Maintaining Disease Transmission in At-Risk Urban Areas.

PubMed

Rothenberg, Richard B; Dai, Dajun; Adams, Mary Anne; Heath, John Wesley

2017-02-01

A study of network relationships, geographic contiguity, and risk behavior was designed to test the hypothesis that all 3 are required to maintain endemicity of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in at-risk urban communities. Specifically, a highly interactive network, close geographic proximity, and compound risk (multiple high-risk activities with multiple partners) would be required. We enrolled 927 participants from two contiguous geographic areas in Atlanta, GA: a higher-risk area and lower-risk area, as measured by history of HIV reporting. We began by enrolling 30 "seeds" (15 in each area) who were comparable in their demographic and behavioral characteristics, and constructed 30 networks using a chain-link design. We assessed each individual's geographic range; measured the network characteristics of those in the higher and lower-risk areas; and measured compound risk as the presence of two or more (of 6) major risks for HIV. Among participants in the higher-risk area, the frequency of compound risk was 15%, compared with 5% in the lower-risk area. Geographic cohesion in the higher-risk group was substantially higher than that in the lower-risk group, based on comparison of geographic distance and social distance, and on the extent of overlap of personal geographic range. The networks in the 2 areas were similar: both areas show highly interactive networks with similar degree distributions, and most measures of network attributes were virtually the same. Our original hypothesis was supported in part. The higher and lower-risk groups differed appreciably with regard to risk and geographic cohesion, but were substantially the same with regard to network properties. These results suggest that a "minimum" network configuration may be required for maintenance of endemic transmission, but a particular prevalence level may be determined by factors related to risk, geography, and possibly other factors.

Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

PubMed

Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-01-01

Falls are a common, serious threat to the health and self-confidence of the elderly. Assessment of fall risk is an important aspect of effective fall prevention programs. In order to test whether it is possible to outperform current prognostic tools for falls, we analyzed 1010 variables pertaining to mobility collected from 976 elderly subjects (InCHIANTI study). We trained and validated a data-driven model that issues probabilistic predictions about future falls. We benchmarked the model against other fall risk indicators: history of falls, gait speed, Short Physical Performance Battery (Guralnik et al. 1994), and the literature-based fall risk assessment tool FRAT-up (Cattelani et al. 2015). Parsimony in the number of variables included in a tool is often considered a proxy for ease of administration. We studied how constraints on the number of variables affect predictive accuracy. The proposed model and FRAT-up both attained the same discriminative ability; the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for multiple falls was 0.71. They outperformed the other risk scores, which reported AUCs for multiple falls between 0.64 and 0.65. Thus, it appears that both data-driven and literature-based approaches are better at estimating fall risk than commonly used fall risk indicators. The accuracy-parsimony analysis revealed that tools with a small number of predictors (~1-5) were suboptimal. Increasing the number of variables improved the predictive accuracy, reaching a plateau at ~20-30, which we can consider as the best trade-off between accuracy and parsimony. Obtaining the values of these ~20-30 variables does not compromise usability, since they are usually available in comprehensive geriatric assessments.

Utility of multiple rule out CT screening of high-risk atraumatic patients in an emergency department-a feasibility study.

PubMed

Pries-Heje, Mia M; Hasselbalch, Rasmus B; Raaschou, Henriette; Rezanavaz-Gheshlagh, Bijan; Heebøll, Hanne; Rehman, Shazia; Kristensen, Mariana; Andersen, Erik Henning; Ravn, Lisbet; Nèmery, Michel C; Lind, Morten N; Boel, Thomas; Ulriksen, Peter Sommer; Iversen, Kasper K

2018-02-17

Several large trials have evaluated the effect of CT screening based on specific symptoms, with varying outcomes. Screening of patients with CT based on their prognosis alone has not been examined before. For moderate-to-high risk patients presenting in the emergency department (ED), the potential gain from a CT scan might outweigh the risk of radiation exposure. We hypothesized that an accelerated "multiple rule out" CT screening of moderate-to-high risk patients will detect many clinically unrecognized diagnoses that affect change in treatment. Patients ≥ 40 years, triaged as high-risk or moderate-to-high risk according to vital signs, were eligible for inclusion. Patients were scanned with a combined ECG-gated and dual energy CT scan of cerebrum, thorax, and abdomen. The impact of the CT scan on patient diagnosis and treatment was examined prospectively by an expert panel. A total of 100 patients were included in the study, (53% female, mean age 73 years [age range, 43-93]). The scan lead to change in treatment or additional examinations in 37 (37%) patients, of which 24 (24%) were diagnostically significant, change in acute treatment in 11 (11%) cases and previously unrecognized malignant tumors in 10 (10%) cases. The mean size specific radiation dose was 15.9 mSv (± 3.1 mSv). Screening with a multi-rule out CT scan of high-risk patients in an ED is feasible and result in discovery of clinically unrecognized diagnoses and malignant tumors, but at the cost of radiation exposure and downstream examinations. The clinical impact of these findings should be evaluated in a larger randomized cohort.

Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

PubMed

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plant-Based Nutrition: An Essential Component of Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Management.

PubMed

Patel, Hena; Chandra, Sonal; Alexander, Sarah; Soble, Jeffrey; Williams, Kim Allan

2017-09-08

This review aims to summarize and discuss the role of plant-based nutrition as an adjunct to the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Discussion of nutrition and the benefits of a plant-based diet should be highlighted during healthcare provider visits as an essential part of the overall CVD prevention and management care plan. Evidence from prospective cohort studies indicates that a high consumption of predominantly plant-based foods, such as fruit and vegetables, nuts, and whole grains, is associated with a significantly lower risk of CVD. The protective effects of these foods are likely mediated through their multiple beneficial nutrients, including mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 fatty acids, antioxidant vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals, fiber, and plant protein. In addition, minimizing intake of animal proteins has been shown to decrease the prevalence of CVD risk factors. Substantial evidence indicates that plant-based diets can play an important role in preventing and treating CVD and its risk factors. Such diets deserve more emphasis in dietary recommendations.

Genetic risk factors for ovarian cancer and their role for endometriosis risk.

PubMed

Burghaus, Stefanie; Fasching, Peter A; Häberle, Lothar; Rübner, Matthias; Büchner, Kathrin; Blum, Simon; Engel, Anne; Ekici, Arif B; Hartmann, Arndt; Hein, Alexander; Beckmann, Matthias W; Renner, Stefan P

2017-04-01

Several genetic variants have been validated as risk factors for ovarian cancer. Endometriosis has also been described as a risk factor for ovarian cancer. Identifying genetic risk factors that are common to the two diseases might help improve our understanding of the molecular pathogenesis potentially linking the two conditions. In a hospital-based case-control analysis, 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), validated by the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study (COGS) project, were genotyped using TaqMan® OpenArray™ analysis. The cases consisted of patients with endometriosis, and the controls were healthy individuals without endometriosis. A total of 385 cases and 484 controls were analyzed. Odds ratios and P values were obtained using simple logistic regression models, as well as from multiple logistic regression models with adjustment for clinical predictors. rs11651755 in HNF1B was found to be associated with endometriosis in this case-control study. The OR was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.84) and the P value after correction for multiple testing was 0.01. None of the other genotypes was associated with a risk for endometriosis. As rs11651755 in HNF1B modified both the ovarian cancer risk and also the risk for endometriosis, HNF1B may be causally involved in the pathogenetic pathway leading from endometriosis to ovarian cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A worksite intervention to reduce the cardiovascular risk: proposal of a study design easy to integrate within Italian organization of occupational health surveillance.

PubMed

Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Marangi, Gianluca; Bontadi, Danilo; Fadda, Emanuela; Cegolon, Luca; Bortolotto, Melania; Fedeli, Ugo; Marchiori, Luciano

2015-01-21

Despite the substantial amount of knowledge on effectiveness of worksite health promotion (WHP) in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, WHP programs are not systematically applied in Italy. The aim was to design an intervention easy to integrate within the Italian organization of workplace health surveillance. We used the "pretest-posttest design". Workers were employed in multiple occupations and resident in Veneto region, Italy. Occupational physicians (OPs) performed all examinations, including laboratory evaluation (capillary blood sampling and measure of glycaemia and cholesterolemia with portable devices), during the normal health surveillance at worksite. CVD risk was computed based on sex, age, smoking habit, diabetes, systolic pressure and cholesterol level. After excluding those with <40 years of age, missing consent, CVD diagnosis or current therapy for CVD, missing information, CVD risk <5%, out of 5,536 workers 451 underwent the intervention and 323 male workers were re-examined at 1 year. CVD risk was the most compelling argument for changing lifestyle. The counseling was based on the individual risk factors. Individuals examined at posttest were a small fraction of the whole (6% = 323/5,536). In these workers we computed the ratio pretest/posttest of proportions (such as percent of subjects with cardiovascular risk >5%) as well as the exact McNemar significance probability or the exact test of table symmetry. CVD risk decreased by 24% (McNemar p = 0.0000) after the intervention; in a sensitivity analysis assuming that all subjects lost to follow-up kept their pretest cardiovascular risk value, the effect (-18%) was still significant (symmetry p < 0.0000). Each prevented CVD case was expected to cost about 5,700 euro. The present worksite intervention promoted favorable changes of CVD risk that were reasonably priced and consistent across multiple occupations.

Glatiramer acetate treatment persistence - but not adherence - in multiple sclerosis patients is predicted by health-related quality of life and self-efficacy: a prospective web-based patient-centred study (CAIR study).

PubMed

Jongen, Peter Joseph; Lemmens, Wim A; Hoogervorst, Erwin L; Donders, Rogier

2017-03-14

In patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) the persistence of and adherence to disease modifying drug (DMD) treatment is inadequate. To take individualised measures there is a need to identify patients with a high risk of non-persistence or non-adherence. As patient-related factors have a major influence on persistence and adherence, we investigated whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and self-efficacy could predict persistence or adherence. In a prospective web-based patient-centred study in 203 RRMS patients, starting treatment with glatiramer acatete (GA) 20 mg subcutaneously daily, we measured physical and mental HRQoL (Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 questionnaire), functional and control self-efficacy (Multiple Sclerosis Self-Efficacy Scale), the 12-month persistence rate and, in persistent patients, the percentage of missed doses. HRQoL and self-efficacy were compared between persistent and non-persistent patients, and between adherent and non-adherent patients. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess whether persistence and adherence were explained by HRQoL and self-efficacy. Persistent patients had higher baseline physical (mean 58.1 [standard deviation, SD] 16.9) and mental HRQoL (63.8 [16.8]) than non-persistent patients (49.5 [17.6]; 55.9 [20.4]) (P = 0.001; P = 0.003) with no differences between adherent and non-adherent patients (P = 0.46; P = 0.54). Likewise, in persistent patients function (752 [156]) and control self-efficacy (568 [178]) were higher than in non-persistent patients (689 [173]; 491 [192]) (P = 0.009; P = 0.004), but not in adherent vs. non-adherent patients (P = 0.26; P = 0.82). Logistic regression modelling identified physical HRQoL and control self-efficacy as factors that explained persistence. Based on predicted scores from the model, patients were classified into quartiles and the percentage of non-persistent patients per quartile was calculated: non-persistence in the highest quartile was 23.4 vs. 53.2% in the lowest quartile. Risk differentiation with respect to adherence was not possible. Based on these findings we propose a practical work-up scheme to identify patients with a high risk of non-persistence and to identify persistence-related factors. Findings suggest that pre-treatment physical HRQoL and control self-efficacy may identify RRMS patients with a high risk of early discontinuation of injectable DMD treatment. Targeting of high-risk patients may enable the efficient use of persistence-promoting measures. Nederlands Trial Register code: NTR2432 .

Moving Beyond Motive-based categories of Targeted Violence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weine, Stevan; Cohen, John; Brannegan, David

Today’s categories for responding to targeted violence are motive-based and tend to drive policies, practices, training, media coverage, and research. These categories are based on the assumption that there are significant differences between ideological and non-ideological actors and between domestic and international actors. We question the reliance on these categories and offer an alternative way to frame the response to multiple forms of targeted violence. We propose adopting a community-based multidisciplinary approach to assess risk and provide interventions that are focused on the pre-criminal space. We describe four capabilities that should be implemented locally by establishing and maintaining multidisciplinary responsemore » teams that combine community and law-enforcement components: (1) community members are educated, making them better able to identify and report patterns associated with elevated risk for violence; (2) community-based professionals are trained to assess the risks for violent behavior posed by individuals; (3) community-based professionals learn to implement strategies that directly intervene in causal factors for those individuals who are at elevated risk; and (4) community-based professionals learn to monitor and assess an individual’s risk for violent behaviors on an ongoing basis. Community-based multidisciplinary response teams have the potential to identify and help persons in the pre-criminal space and to reduce barriers that have traditionally impeded community/law-enforcement collaboration.« less

Assessment of risky sexual behavior and practice among Aksum University students, Shire Campus, Shire Town, Tigray, Ethiopia, 2017.

PubMed

Kebede, Awoke; Molla, Bogale; Gerensea, Hadgu

2018-01-31

Having sex at early age, having multiple sexual partners, having sex while under the influence of alcohol or drugs and unprotected sexual behaviors are the common characteristics of risky sexual behavior which increases risk of individuals to sexuality and reproductive health problems. Risky sexual behavior is the most common problem in adolescents and young adults which may expose individuals for permanent social, economical, psychological and physical problem. So that this study focus on assessment of risk sexual behavior using institution based cross-sectional study design on 287 randomly selected subjects among Aksum University students. Almost 60% students reported to have ever had sexual activity. Of which 86 (83.5%) and 112 (64.4%) reported having inconsistent condom use and multiple sexual partners respectively. Even though more than half of first sexual intercourse (61.5%) starts due to their desire but still peer pressure and alcohol have significant effect. Similarly the study indicated that a significant segment of students have risk sexual behaviors which increase individuals' risk of acquiring HIV/AIDS. Unless appropriate age and institutional targeted interventions exist, certain behaviors can place the university students at greater risk of HIV infection and sexually transmitted disease.

A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

PubMed

Sharit, J

2000-08-01

This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

A Meta-analysis of Studies Comparing Outcomes of Diverse Acellular Dermal Matrices for Implant-Based Breast Reconstruction.

PubMed

Lee, Kyeong-Tae; Mun, Goo-Hyun

2017-07-01

The current diversity of the available acellular dermal matrix (ADM) materials for implant-based breast reconstruction raises the issue of whether there are any differences in postoperative outcomes according to the kind of ADM used. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate whether choice of ADM products can affect outcomes. Studies that used multiple kinds of ADM products for implant-based breast reconstruction and compared outcomes between them were searched. Outcomes of interest were rates of postoperative complications: infection, seroma, mastectomy flap necrosis, reconstruction failure, and overall complications. A total of 17 studies met the selection criteria. There was only 1 randomized controlled trial, and the other 16 studies had retrospective designs. Comparison of FlexHD, DermaMatrix, and ready-to-use AlloDerm with freeze-dried AlloDerm was conducted in multiple studies and could be meta-analyzed, in which 12 studies participated. In the meta-analysis comparing FlexHD and freeze-dried AlloDerm, using the results of 6 studies, both products showed similar pooled risks for all kinds of complications. When comparing DermaMatrix and freeze-dried AlloDerm with the results from 4 studies, there were also no differences between the pooled risks of complications of the two. Similarly, the meta-analysis of 4 studies comparing ready-to-use and freeze-dried AlloDerm demonstrated that the pooled risks for the complications did not differ. This meta-analysis demonstrates that the 3 recently invented, human cadaveric skin-based products of FlexHD, DermaMatrix, and ready-to-use AlloDerm have similar risks of complications compared with those of freeze-dried AlloDerm, which has been used for longer. However, as most studies had low levels of evidence, further investigations are needed.

Infectious mononucleosis and multiple sclerosis - Updated review on associated risk.

PubMed

Sheik-Ali, Sharaf

2017-05-01

There has been substantial evidence accumulating on the role of infectious mononucleosis (IM) and the subsequent risk of obtaining Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Up to date studies not previously explored were reviewed by the author to further clarify the association. Medline and Web of Science were searched with no time constraints for articles exploring an association between Multiple Sclerosis and Infectious Mononucleosis. 24 articles were found, totalling 1063 cases and 13,227 cohort/controls. 23/24 (96%) articles reported a significant association of Infectious Mononucleosis on the risk of subsequent multiple sclerosis. Overall, new literature on IM and risk of MS categorically supports the association. Future work should focus on other risk factors such as age and gender on IM and subsequent risk of MS. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Serum-free light-chain analysis in diagnosis and management of multiple myeloma and related conditions.

PubMed

Milani, Paolo; Palladini, Giovanni; Merlini, Giampaolo

2016-01-01

The introduction of the serum-free light-chain (S-FLC) assay has been a breakthrough in the diagnosis and management of plasma cell dyscrasias, particularly monoclonal light-chain diseases. The first method, proposed in 2001, quantifies serum-free light-chains using polyclonal antibodies. More recently, assays based on monoclonal antibodies have entered into clinical practice. S-FLC measurement plays a central role in the screening for multiple myeloma and related conditions, in association with electrophoretic techniques. Analysis of S-FLC is essential in assessing the risk of progression of precursor diseases to overt plasma cell dyscrasias. It is also useful for risk stratification in solitary plasmacytoma and AL amyloidosis. The S-FLC measurement is part of the new diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma, and provides a marker to follow changes in clonal substructure over time. Finally, the evaluation of S-FLC is fundamental for assessing the response to treatment in monoclonal light chain diseases.

The intergenerational transfer of mother-daughter risk for gender-based abuse.

PubMed

McCloskey, Laura Ann

2013-01-01

In this 10-year longitudinal study 150 mother-daughter pairs were recruited to participate in a study examining gender-based abuse across three generations. Forms of gender-based abuse included: child sexual abuse, witnessing intimate partner violence against their mothers, and intimate partner violence or dating violence in adolescence or adulthood. Daughters were interviewed when they were on average 9, 14, and 16 years old. Regression analyses revealed that if the grandmother (G1) was abused by her husband, her daughter (G2) was more likely to be sexually molested in childhood and was also more likely to be in an abusive relationship as an adult. If the mother (G2) was sexually abused as a child her daughter (G3) was at increased risk for child sexual abuse. In turn, child sexual abuse for the daughters related to their reports of dating violence in adolescence. Daughters (G3) who were sexually abused expressed more anxiety about romantic relationships, reflecting early attachment conflicts. Both child sexual abuse and anxious romantic attachment style independently predicted adolescent sexual risk-taking as in having multiple sexual partners or dating older men. These findings demonstrate how informative it is to include multiple forms of gender-based abuse in research and practice to better illuminate complex family dynamics. In addition, the findings support previous empirical work showing the importance of attachment behavior in women who are in abusive relationships, which has unique clinical implications.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

PubMed

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Assessment of risks to ground-feeding songbirds from lead in the Coeur d'Alene Basin, Idaho, USA.

PubMed

Sample, Bradley E; Hansen, James A; Dailey, Anne; Duncan, Bruce

2011-10-01

Previous assessment of ecological risks within the Coeur d'Alene River Basin identified Pb as a key risk driver for ground-feeding songbirds. Because this conclusion was based almost exclusively on literature data, its strength was determined to range from low to moderate. With the support of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the US Fish and Wildlife Service collected site-specific data to address the uncertainty associated with Pb risks to songbirds. These data, plus those from the previous Coeur d'Alene Basin ecological risk assessment, were integrated, and risks to ground-feeding songbirds were reevaluated. These site-specific data were also used to develop updated preliminary remedial goals (PRGs) for Pb in soils that would be protective of songbirds. Available data included site-specific Pb concentrations in blood, liver, and ingesta from 3 songbird species (American robin, song sparrow, and Swainson's thrush), colocated soil data, and soil data from other locations in the basin. Semi-log regression models based on the association between soil Pb and tissue Pb concentrations were applied to measured soil concentrations from the previous risk assessment to estimate Pb exposures in riparian and adjacent upland habitats throughout the Coeur d'Alene Basin. Measured and estimated tissue or dietary exposure was tabulated for 3 areas plus the reference, and then compared to multiple effects measures. As many as 6 exposure-effect metrics were available for assessing risk in any one area. Analyses of site-specific tissue- and diet-based exposure data indicate that exposure of ground-feeding songbirds to Pb in the Coeur d'Alene Basin is sufficient to result in adverse effects. Because this conclusion is based on multiple exposure-effect metrics that include site-specific data, the strength of this conclusion is high. Ecological PRGs were developed by integrating the site-specific regression models with tissue and dietary effect levels to create exposure models, which were solved for the soil concentration that produced an exposure estimate equal to the effect level (i.e., the ecological PRG). The lowest PRG obtained for any species' exposure-effect measure combination was 490 mg/kg for subclinical effects due to Pb in the blood of American robins; the highest was 7200 mg/kg for severe clinical effects due to Pb in the blood of song sparrows. Because the lowest ground-feeding songbird PRG was comparable to multiple cleanup goals developed for the basin (i.e., soil invertebrates, wildlife populations, and human health), in addition to the site-specific cleanup level of 530 mg Pb/kg sediment for the protection of waterfowl (USEPA 2002) the USEPA has made a risk-management determination that a site-specific Pb cleanup level of 530 mg/kg in soil would be protective of songbirds in the Coeur d'Alene Basin. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Immunomodulatory drugs and the risk of serious infection in multiple myeloma: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized and observational studies.

PubMed

Chen, Min; Zhao, Yongfeng; Xu, Chuanxin; Wang, Xian; Zhang, Xianping; Mao, Benyu

2018-06-01

The effect of immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) on serious infection remains uncertain. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the possible impact of IMiDs on serious infection in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). We searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies from databases that addressed the effect of IMiDs on serious infection in patients with MM. We pooled data from RCTs and observational studies separately and used the GRADE approach to rate the quality of evidence. Rates in patients with individual IMiDs at different treatment status ranged from 7.00 to 23.00%. The use of thalidomide- or lenalidomide-based regimen induction therapy for autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT)-ineligible patients suggests increase in serious infection (RR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.31-1.93, p < 0.01). Compared to conventional therapy, IMiDs' induction in ASCT-eligible patients significantly decreases the risk of serious infection (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.72-0.94, p < 0.01). Lenalidomide-based therapy was associated with a significant increase in risk of serious infection in patients treated compared with conventional therapy (RR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.57-3.83, p < 0.01). The current evidence suggests that patients with MM treated with IMiDs are at a high risk of serious infection.

Greater involvement and diversity of Internet gambling as a risk factor for problem gambling.

PubMed

Gainsbury, Sally M; Russell, Alex; Blaszczynski, Alex; Hing, Nerilee

2015-08-01

Concerns that Internet gambling has elevated the prevalence of problem gambling have not been substantiated; however, evidence suggests a subgroup of Internet gamblers do experience higher rates of gambling harms. Greater overall involvement in gambling appears to be predictive of harms. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between Internet gamblers with a single or multiple online gambling accounts, including their gambling behaviours, factors influencing their online gambling and risk of experiencing gambling problems. Internet gamblers (3178) responding to an online survey that assessed their gambling behaviour, and use of single or multiple online gambling accounts. Results revealed that multiple account holders were more involved gamblers, gambling on more activities and more frequently, and had higher rates of gambling problems than single account holders. Multiple account holders selected gambling sites based on price, betting options, payout rates and game experience, whereas single account holders prioritized legality and consumer protection features. Results suggest two different types of Internet gamblers: one motivated to move between sites to optimize preferred experiences with a tendency to gamble in a more volatile manner; and a smaller, but more stable group less influenced by promotions and experiences, and seeking a reputable and safe gambling experience. As the majority of Internet gamblers use multiple accounts, more universal responsible gambling strategies are needed to assist gamblers to track and control their expenditure to reduce risks of harm. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive approach to the management of the patient with multiple rib fractures: a review and introduction of a bundled rib fracture management protocol.

PubMed

Witt, Cordelie E; Bulger, Eileen M

2017-01-01

Rib fractures are common among patients sustaining blunt trauma, and are markers of severe bodily and solid organ injury. They are associated with high morbidity and mortality, including multiple pulmonary complications, and can lead to chronic pain and disability. Clinical and radiographic scoring systems have been developed at several institutions to predict risk of complications. Clinical strategies to reduce morbidity have been studied, including multimodal pain management, catheter-based analgesia, pulmonary hygiene, and operative stabilization. In this article, we review risk factors for morbidity and complications, intervention strategies, and discuss experience with bundled clinical pathways for rib fractures. In addition, we introduce the multidisciplinary rib fracture management protocol used at our level I trauma center.

Pharmacogenomic Approaches for Automated Medication Risk Assessment in People with Polypharmacy

PubMed Central

Liu, Jiazhen; Friedman, Carol; Finkelstein, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract Medication regimen may be optimized based on individual drug efficacy identified by pharmacogenomic testing. However, majority of current pharmacogenomic decision support tools provide assessment only of single drug-gene interactions without taking into account complex drug-drug and drug-drug-gene interactions which are prevalent in people with polypharmacy and can result in adverse drug events or insufficient drug efficacy. The main objective of this project was to develop comprehensive pharmacogenomic decision support for medication risk assessment in people with polypharmacy that simultaneously accounts for multiple drug and gene effects. To achieve this goal, the project addressed two aims: (1) development of comprehensive knowledge repository of actionable pharmacogenes; (2) introduction of scoring approaches reflecting potential adverse effect risk levels of complex medication regimens accounting for pharmacogenomic polymorphisms and multiple drug metabolizing pathways. After pharmacogenomic knowledge repository was introduced, a scoring algorithm has been built and pilot-tested using a limited data set. The resulting total risk score for frequently hospitalized older adults with polypharmacy (72.04±17.84) was statistically significantly different (p<0.05) from the total risk score for older adults with polypharmacy with low hospitalization rate (8.98±2.37). An initial prototype assessment demonstrated feasibility of our approach and identified steps for improving risk scoring algorithms.

Saturday night's alright for fighting: antisocial traits, fighting, and weapons carrying in a large sample of youth.

PubMed

Ferguson, Christopher J; Cricket Meehan, D

2010-12-01

The current study examines risk and protective factors for youth antisocial personality and behavior from a multivariate format. It is hoped that this research will elucidate those risk and protective factors most important for focus of future prevention and intervention efforts. The current study examines multiple factors associated with youth antisocial traits and behavior in a sample of 8,256 youth (mean age 14), with the goal of identifying the strongest and most consistent risk or protective factors. Data was collected from the Ohio version of the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System's (YRBSS) school-based Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) developed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses identified peer delinquency, drug use and negative community influences as predictive of antisocial traits. Schools and families functioned as protective factors. Youth who fought frequently tended to be male, antisocial, dug using, depressed, and associated with delinquent peers. Weapons carrying was most common among drug using, antisocial males. Television and video game use were not predictive of antisocial, fighting or weapons carrying outcomes. Developmental patterns across age ranges regarding the relative importance of specific risk factors were also examined. Strategies for intervention and prevention of youth violence that focus on peers, neighborhoods, depression, and families may be particularly likely to bear fruit.

Second malignancies after multiple myeloma: from 1960s to 2010s

PubMed Central

Thomas, Anish; Mailankody, Sham; Korde, Neha; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y.; Turesson, Ingemar

2012-01-01

Based on small numbers, recent reports from 3 randomized trials have consistently demonstrated more hematologic malignancies in patients treated with lenalidomide as maintenance (vs placebo). This fact has prompted concern and highlighted the association between multiple myeloma and second malignancies. Furthermore, an excess of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) after multiple myeloma has been known for over 4 decades. Most prior studies have been restricted because of small numbers of patients, inadequate follow-up, and limitations of ascertainment of second malignancies. Although the underlying biologic mechanisms of AML/MDS after multiple myeloma are unknown, treatment-related factors are presumed to be responsible. Recently, an excess risk of AML/MDS was found among 5652 patients with IgG/IgA (but not IgM) monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, supporting a role for disease-related factors. Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest that polymorphisms in germline genes may contribute to a person's susceptibility to subsequent cancers, whereas the potential influence of environmental and behavioral factors remains poorly understood. This review discusses current knowledge regarding second malignancies after multiple myeloma and gives future directions for efforts designed to characterize underlying biologic mechanisms, with the goal to maximize survival and minimize the risk for second malignancies for individual patients. PMID:22310913

[Psychoactive substances use and health-related quality of life among school age adolescents].

PubMed

Vilugrón Aravena, Fabiola; Hidalgo-Rasmussen, Carlos Alejandro; Molina G, Temístocles; Gras Pérez, María Eugenia; Font-Mayolas, Silvia

2017-12-01

Background The use of psychoactive substances among adolescents is a major social and public health concern. Aim To analyze association of substance abuse and multiple drug use with health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in adolescents attending a high school in Valparaiso, Chile. Material and Methods Analytical cross-sectional study conducted in a sample of adolescents attending high school. HRQOL was assessed using KIDSCREEN-52 questionnaire and substance use was measured using the Global school-based student health survey. Participants had to complete online, self-administered, anonymous questionnaires. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to calculate Odd ratios. Results A total of 550 adolescents aged 16 ± 1 years old completed the questionnaires. Thirty nine percent consumed alcohol during the last month, 31% smoked, 33% used marijuana and 33% admitted the use of multiple drugs. High-risk alcohol consumption was associated with a lower perception of psychological well-being, self-perception and school environment. This last dimension was affected in those who admitted marijuana use during the last month. Multiple drug use (three substances) was associated with a lower perception of physical and psychological well-being, self-perception, relationship with parents, family life and school environment. Conclusions High-risk alcohol consumption and multiple drug use (three substances) have a negative impact on the HRQOL of school age adolescents.

Association of Alzheimer's disease GWAS loci with MRI markers of brain aging.

PubMed

Chauhan, Ganesh; Adams, Hieab H H; Bis, Joshua C; Weinstein, Galit; Yu, Lei; Töglhofer, Anna Maria; Smith, Albert Vernon; van der Lee, Sven J; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Thomson, Russell; Wang, Jing; Yang, Qiong; Niessen, Wiro J; Lopez, Oscar L; Becker, James T; Phan, Thanh G; Beare, Richard J; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; Fleischman, Debra; Vernooij, Meike W; Mazoyer, Bernard; Schmidt, Helena; Srikanth, Velandai; Knopman, David S; Jack, Clifford R; Amouyel, Philippe; Hofman, Albert; DeCarli, Charles; Tzourio, Christophe; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Bennett, David A; Schmidt, Reinhold; Longstreth, William T; Mosley, Thomas H; Fornage, Myriam; Launer, Lenore J; Seshadri, Sudha; Ikram, M Arfan; Debette, Stephanie

2015-04-01

Whether novel risk variants of Alzheimer's disease (AD) identified through genome-wide association studies also influence magnetic resonance imaging-based intermediate phenotypes of AD in the general population is unclear. We studied association of 24 AD risk loci with intracranial volume, total brain volume, hippocampal volume (HV), white matter hyperintensity burden, and brain infarcts in a meta-analysis of genetic association studies from large population-based samples (N = 8175-11,550). In single-SNP based tests, AD risk allele of APOE (rs2075650) was associated with smaller HV (p = 0.0054) and CD33 (rs3865444) with smaller intracranial volume (p = 0.0058). In gene-based tests, there was associations of HLA-DRB1 with total brain volume (p = 0.0006) and BIN1 with HV (p = 0.00089). A weighted AD genetic risk score was associated with smaller HV (beta ± SE = -0.047 ± 0.013, p = 0.00041), even after excluding the APOE locus (p = 0.029). However, only association of AD genetic risk score with HV, including APOE, was significant after multiple testing correction (including number of independent phenotypes tested). These results suggest that novel AD genetic risk variants may contribute to structural brain aging in nondemented older community persons. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prior medical conditions and medication use and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in Connecticut United States women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yawei; Holford, Theodore R; Leaderer, Brian; Zahm, Shelia Hoar; Boyle, Peter; Morton, Lindsay McOmber; Zhang, Bing; Zou, Kaiyong; Flynn, Stuart; Tallini, Giovanni; Owens, Patricia H; Zheng, Tongzhang

2004-05-01

To further investigate the role of prior medical conditions and medication use in the etiology of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), we analyzed the data from a population-based case-control study of NHL in Connecticut women. A total of 601 histologically confirmed incident cases of NHL and 717 population-based controls were included in this study. In-person interviews were administered using standardized, structured questionnaires to collect information on medical conditions and medication use. An increased risk was found among women who had a history of autoimmune disorders (such as rheumatoid arthritis, lupus erythematosus, Sjogren's syndrome, and multiple sclerosis), anemia, eczema, or psoriasis. An increased risk was also observed among women who had used steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and tranquilizers. A reduced risk was found for women who had scarlet fever or who had used estrogen replacement therapy, aspirin, medications for non-insulin dependent diabetes, HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, or beta-adrenergic blocking agents. Risk associated with past medical history appeared to vary based on NHL subtypes, but the results were based on small number of exposed subjects. A relationship between certain prior medical conditions and medication use and risk of NHL was observed in this study. Further studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

NASA Human Research Program Space Radiation Program Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori; Huff, Janice; Patel, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Hu, Shaowwen; Kidane, Yared; Myung-Hee, Kim; Li, Yongfeng; Nounu, Hatem; Plante, Ianik;

Application of Intervention Mapping to develop a community-based health promotion pre-pregnancy intervention for adolescent girls in rural South Africa: Project Ntshembo (Hope).

PubMed

Draper, Catherine E; Micklesfield, Lisa K; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M; Pettifor, John M; Dunger, David B; Norris, Shane A

2014-01-01

South Africa (SA) is undergoing multiple transitions with an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and high levels of overweight and obesity in adolescent girls and women. Adolescence is key to addressing trans-generational risk and a window of opportunity to intervene and positively impact on individuals' health trajectories into adulthood. Using Intervention Mapping (IM), this paper describes the development of the Ntshembo intervention, which is intended to improve the health and well-being of adolescent girls in order to limit the inter-generational transfer of risk of metabolic disease, in particular diabetes risk. This paper describes the application of the first four steps of IM. Evidence is provided to support the selection of four key behavioural objectives: viz. to eat a healthy, balanced diet, increase physical activity, reduce sedentary behaviour, and promote reproductive health. Appropriate behaviour change techniques are suggested and a theoretical framework outlining components of relevant behaviour change theories is presented. It is proposed that the Ntshembo intervention will be community-based, including specialist adolescent community health workers who will deliver a complex intervention comprising of individual, peer, family and community mobilisation components. The Ntshembo intervention is novel, both in SA and globally, as it is: (1) based on strong evidence, extensive formative work and best practice from evaluated interventions; (2) combines theory with evidence to inform intervention components; (3) includes multiple domains of influence (community through to the individual); (4) focuses on an at-risk target group; and (5) embeds within existing and planned health service priorities in SA.

Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.; Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030

2013-07-01

The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materialsmore » circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.« less

ASCCP Colposcopy Standards: Risk-Based Colposcopy Practice.

PubMed

Wentzensen, Nicolas; Schiffman, Mark; Silver, Michelle I; Khan, Michelle J; Perkins, Rebecca B; Smith, Katie M; Gage, Julia C; Gold, Michael A; Conageski, Christine; Einstein, Mark H; Mayeaux, Edward J; Waxman, Alan G; Huh, Warner K; Massad, L Stewart

2017-10-01

The American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP) Colposcopy Standards recommendations address the role of and approach to colposcopy for cervical cancer prevention in the United States. The recommendations were developed by an expert working group appointed by ASCCP's Board of Directors. This article describes the rationale, evidence, and recommendations related to risk-based colposcopy practice. Women referred to colposcopy have a wide range of underlying precancer risk, which can be estimated by referral screening tests including cytology and human papillomavirus testing, in conjunction with the colposcopic impression. Multiple targeted biopsies, at least 2 and up to 4, are recommended to improve detection of prevalent precancers. At the lowest end of the risk spectrum, untargeted biopsies are not recommended, and women with a completely normal colposcopic impression can be observed. At the highest end of the risk spectrum, immediate treatment is an alternative to biopsy confirmation. Assessing the risk of cervical precancer at the colposcopy visit allows for modification of colposcopy procedures consistent with a woman's risk. Implementation of these recommendations is expected to lead to improved detection of cervical precancers at colposcopy, while providing more reassurance of negative colposcopy results.

Multiple sclerosis in children: an update on clinical diagnosis, therapeutic strategies, and research

PubMed Central

Waldman, Amy; Ghezzi, Angelo; Bar-Or, Amit; Mikaeloff, Yann; Tardieu, Marc; Banwell, Brenda

2015-01-01

The clinical features, diagnostic challenges, neuroimaging appearance, therapeutic options, and pathobiological research progress in childhood—and adolescent—onset multiple sclerosis have been informed by many new insights in the past 7 years. National programmes in several countries, collaborative research efforts, and an established international paediatric multiple sclerosis study group have contributed to revised clinical diagnostic definitions, identified clinical features of multiple sclerosis that differ by age of onset, and made recommendations regarding the treatment of paediatric multiple sclerosis. The relative risks conveyed by genetic and environmental factors to paediatric multiple sclerosis have been the subject of several large cohort studies. MRI features have been characterised in terms of qualitative descriptions of lesion distribution and applicability of MRI aspects to multiple sclerosis diagnostic criteria, and quantitative studies have assessed total lesion burden and the effect of the disease on global and regional brain volume. Humoral-based and cell-based assays have identified antibodies against myelin, potassium-channel proteins, and T-cell profiles that support an adult-like T-cell repertoire and cellular reactivity against myelin in paediatric patients with multiple sclerosis. Finally, the safety and efficacy of standard first-line therapies in paediatric multiple sclerosis populations are now appreciated in more detail, and consensus views on the future conduct and feasibility of phase 3 trials for new drugs have been proposed. PMID:25142460

Strong evidence for a genetic contribution to late-onset Alzheimer's disease mortality: a population-based study.

PubMed

Kauwe, John S K; Ridge, Perry G; Foster, Norman L; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A

2013-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is an international health concern that has a devastating effect on patients and families. While several genetic risk factors for AD have been identified much of the genetic variance in AD remains unexplained. There are limited published assessments of the familiality of Alzheimer's disease. Here we present the largest genealogy-based analysis of AD to date. We assessed the familiality of AD in The Utah Population Database (UPDB), a population-based resource linking electronic health data repositories for the state with the computerized genealogy of the Utah settlers and their descendants. We searched UPDB for significant familial clustering of AD to evaluate the genetic contribution to disease. We compared the Genealogical Index of Familiality (GIF) between AD individuals and randomly selected controls and estimated the Relative Risk (RR) for a range of family relationships. Finally, we identified pedigrees with a significant excess of AD deaths. The GIF analysis showed that pairs of individuals dying from AD were significantly more related than expected. This excess of relatedness was observed for both close and distant relationships. RRs for death from AD among relatives of individuals dying from AD were significantly increased for both close and more distant relatives. Multiple pedigrees had a significant excess of AD deaths. These data strongly support a genetic contribution to the observed clustering of individuals dying from AD. This report is the first large population-based assessment of the familiality of AD mortality and provides the only reported estimates of relative risk of AD mortality in extended relatives to date. The high-risk pedigrees identified show a true excess of AD mortality (not just multiple cases) and are greater in depth and width than published AD pedigrees. The presence of these high-risk pedigrees strongly supports the possibility of rare predisposition variants not yet identified.

Risk Profiles of Children Entering Residential Care: A Cluster Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hagaman, Jessica L.; Trout, Alexandra L.; Chmelka, M. Beth; Thompson, Ronald W.; Reid, Robert

2010-01-01

Children in residential care are a heterogeneous population, presenting various combinations of risks. Existing studies on these children suggest high variability across multiple domains (e.g., academics, behavior). Given this heterogeneity, it is important to begin to identify the combinations and patterns of multiple risks, or risk profiles,…

"Missing pieces": exploring cardiac risk perceptions in older women.

PubMed

Lefler, Leanne L; McSweeney, Jean C; Garner, Kimberly K

2013-04-01

Approximately 95% of older women have factors that put them at risk for developing cardiovascular disease, but research indicates many do not perceive themselves to be at risk. We examined older women's perceived risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and the factors influencing their perceptions. We conducted a descriptive, qualitative study using in-depth, individual interviews and quantitative measures to assess perceived risk and risk factors. Twenty-four older African American and Caucasian women had a mean 4.46 cardiac risk factors but perceived their own CHD risk as unrealistically low at 1.95 cm (SD = 1.57, on 0-to-8 cm visual analogue scale). Narrative data clustered in themes that represented a lack of fact-based information and multiple misconceptions about CHD and prevention. Major improvements in CHD health are only achievable if risk factors are prevented. This research suggests older women have substantial needs for consistent CHD information and prevention guidance. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

Paternal programming of breast cancer risk in daughters in a rat model: opposing effects of animal- and plant-based high-fat diets.

PubMed

Fontelles, Camile Castilho; Guido, Luiza Nicolosi; Rosim, Mariana Papaléo; Andrade, Fábia de Oliveira; Jin, Lu; Inchauspe, Jessica; Pires, Vanessa Cardoso; de Castro, Inar Alves; Hilakivi-Clarke, Leena; de Assis, Sonia; Ong, Thomas Prates

2016-07-26

Although males contribute half of the embryo's genome, only recently has interest begun to be directed toward the potential impact of paternal experiences on the health of offspring. While there is evidence that paternal malnutrition may increase offspring susceptibility to metabolic diseases, the influence of paternal factors on a daughter's breast cancer risk has been examined in few studies. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were fed, before and during puberty, either a lard-based (high in saturated fats) or a corn oil-based (high in n-6 polyunsaturated fats) high-fat diet (60 % of fat-derived energy). Control animals were fed an AIN-93G control diet (16 % of fat-derived energy). Their 50-day-old female offspring fed only a commercial diet were subjected to the classical model of mammary carcinogenesis based on 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene initiation, and mammary tumor development was evaluated. Sperm cells and mammary gland tissue were subjected to cellular and molecular analysis. Compared with female offspring of control diet-fed male rats, offspring of lard-fed male rats did not differ in tumor latency, growth, or multiplicity. However, female offspring of lard-fed male rats had increased elongation of the mammary epithelial tree, number of terminal end buds, and tumor incidence compared with both female offspring of control diet-fed and corn oil-fed male rats. Compared with female offspring of control diet-fed male rats, female offspring of corn oil-fed male rats showed decreased tumor growth but no difference regarding tumor incidence, latency, or multiplicity. Additionally, female offspring of corn oil-fed male rats had longer tumor latency as well as decreased tumor growth and multiplicity compared with female offspring of lard-fed male rats. Paternal consumption of animal- or plant-based high-fat diets elicited opposing effects, with lard rich in saturated fatty acids increasing breast cancer risk in offspring and corn oil rich in n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids decreasing it. These effects could be linked to alterations in microRNA expression in fathers' sperm and their daughters' mammary glands, and to modifications in breast cancer-related protein expression in this tissue. Our findings highlight the importance of paternal nutrition in affecting future generations' risk of developing breast cancer.

The Effect of Childhood Supervisory Neglect on Emerging Adults’ Drinking

PubMed Central

Snyder, Susan M.; Merritt, Darcey H.

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effect of childhood supervisory neglect on emerging adults’ drinking. Child supervisory neglect is the most common form of child maltreatment in the United States, but few studies explore supervisory neglect separate from other forms of maltreatment among emerging adults, 18–25 years old. The study sample included (n = 11,117) emerging adults, 18–25 years old who participated in Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). We conducted separate analyses for male and female emerging adults, because they have different rates of alcohol consumption and alcohol risk behaviors. Our study used latent class analysis to understand how patterns of alcohol risk behaviors clustered together. For males, we found the following four classes: (1) multiple-risk drinkers, (2) moderate-risk drinkers, (3) binge-drinkers, and (4) low-risk drinkers or abstainers. For females, we found the following three classes: (1) multiple-risk drinkers, (2) moderate-risk drinkers, and (3) low-risk drinkers or abstainers. For both males and females, supervisory neglect increased the odds of membership in the multiple-risk drinkers’ class compared to the low-risk drinkers or abstainers’ class. Single males who did not live with their parents, and who were white had increased odds of being in the multiple-risk drinkers. For females, being more educated, or in a serious romantic relationship increased the odds of membership in the multiple-risk drinkers’ class. Practitioners should ask about histories of supervisory neglect among emerging adults who engage in alcohol risk behaviors. PMID:26771736

Quantification of Circulating Clonal Plasma Cells via Multiparametric Flow Cytometry Identifies Patients with Smoldering Multiple Myeloma at High Risk of Progression

PubMed Central

Gonsalves, Wilson I.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Timm, Michael M.; Morice, William G.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Buadi, Francis K.; Go, Ronald S.; Leung, Nelson; Kapoor, Prashant; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Lust, John A.; Russell, Stephen J.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Hwa, Lisa; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V.; Kyle, Robert A.; Gertz, Morie A.; Kumar, Shaji K.

2017-01-01

The presence of high numbers of circulating clonal plasma cells (cPCs) in patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), detected by a slide-based immunofluorescence assay, has been associated with a shorter time to progression (TTP) to multiple myeloma (MM). The significance of quantifying cPCs via multiparameter flow cytometry, a much more readily available diagnostic modality, in patients with SMM has not been evaluated. This study evaluated 100 patients with a known or new diagnosis of SMM who were seen at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester from January 2008 until December 2013. Patients with ≥ 150 cPCs (N = 9) were considered to have high number of cPCs based on the 97% specificity and 78% PPV of progression to MM within 2 years of cPC assessment. The median TTP of patients with ≥ 150 cPCs was 9 months compared to not reached for patients with < 150 cPCs (P < 0.001). Thus, quantification of cPCs via multiparametric flow cytometry identifies patients with SMM at very high risk of progression to MM within 2 years and warrants confirmation in larger studies. In the future, this may allow reclassification of such patients as having MM requiring therapy prior to them enduring end-organ damage. PMID:27457702

Associations between dietary fiber and colorectal polyp risk differ by polyp type and smoking status.

PubMed

Fu, Zhenming; Shrubsole, Martha J; Smalley, Walter E; Ness, Reid M; Zheng, Wei

2014-05-01

The association of dietary fiber intake with colorectal cancer risk is established. However, the association may differ between cigarette smokers and nonsmokers. We evaluated this hypothesis in a large colonoscopy-based case-control study. Dietary fiber intakes were estimated by self-administered food frequency questionnaire. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to estimate ORs and 95% CIs with adjustment for potential confounders. Analysis also was stratified by cigarette smoking and sex. High dietary fiber intake was associated with reduced risk of colorectal polyps (P-trend = 0.003). This association was found to be stronger among cigarette smokers (P-trend = 0.006) than nonsmokers (P-trend = 0.21), although the test for multiplicative interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.11). This pattern of association was more evident for high-risk adenomatous polyps (ADs), defined as advanced or multiple ADs (P-interaction smoking and dietary fiber intake = 0.09). Among cigarette smokers who smoked ≥23 y, a 38% reduced risk of high-risk ADs was found to be associated with high intake of dietary fiber compared with those in the lowest quartile fiber intake group (P-trend = 0.004). No inverse association with dietary fiber intake was observed for low-risk ADs, defined as single nonadvanced ADs. Cigarette smoking may modify the association of dietary fiber intake with the risk of colorectal polyps, especially high-risk ADs, a well-established precursor of colorectal cancer.

Efficacy and toxicity profile of carfilzomib based regimens for treatment of multiple myeloma: A systematic review.

PubMed

Mushtaq, Adeela; Kapoor, Vikas; Latif, Azka; Iftikhar, Ahmad; Zahid, Umar; McBride, Ali; Abraham, Ivo; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Anwer, Faiz

2018-05-01

Standard induction therapy for multiple myeloma is three-drug combination based on following classes of drugs: proteasome inhibitors, immunomodulators and steroids. Despite its notable efficacy, bortezomib has side effects like peripheral neuropathy (PNP) with reported incidence of grade ≥3 PNP between 2%-23% Schlafer et al., 2017. Carfilzomib (CFZ) has high selectivity and minimal off-target adverse effects including lower rates of PNP. CFZ is already approved for treatment of relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) as single agent as well as in combination with lenalidomide and/or dexamethasone. Extensive literature search identified a total of 1839 articles. Twenty-six articles (n = 5980) met the inclusion criteria, 15 in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and 11 in RRMM group. CFZ demonstrates comparable or even better efficacy to bortezomib with much favorable AE profile. Deep, rapid and sustainable response using KRd with safer toxicity profile supports extension of KRd therapy to frontline therapy for all risk categories of MM. High incidence of grade ≥3 HTN underscores the importance of serial BP monitoring. In RRMM, CFZ has documented efficacy with standard 20-27mg/m2 dose. Further large-scale trials are needed to study benefit-to-risk profile of 20-56 and 20-70 mg/m2 dose of CFZ vs standard 20-27 mg/m2 dose in NDMM and RRMM. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keselman, Alla

2003-11-01

Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.

The incidence of leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma among atomic bomb survivors: 1950 – 2001

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Ling; Preston, Dale L.; Soda, Midori; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Kodama, Kazunori; Kimura, Akiro; Kamada, Nanao; Dohy, Hiroo; Tomonaga, Masao; Iwanaga, Masako; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Cullings, Harry M.; Suyama, Akihiko; Ozasa, Kotaro; Shore, Roy E.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

2013-01-01

A marked increase in leukemia risks was the first and most striking late effect of radiation exposure seen among the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. This paper presents analyses of radiation effects on leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors updated 14 years since the last comprehensive report on these malignancies. These analyses make use of tumor- and leukemia-registry-based incidence data on 113,011 cohort members with 3.6 million person-years of follow-up from late 1950 through the end of 2001. In addition to a detailed analysis of the excess risk for all leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia (neither of which appear to be radiation-related), we present results for the major hematopoietic malignancy types: acute lymphoblastic leukemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia, adult T-cell leukemia, Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. Poisson regression methods were used to characterize the shape of the radiation dose response relationship and, to the extent the data allowed, to investigate variation in the excess risks with sex, attained age, exposure age, and time since exposure. In contrast to the previous report that focused on describing excess absolute rates, we considered both excess absolute rate (EAR) and excess relative risk (ERR) models and found that ERR models can often provide equivalent and sometimes more parsimonious descriptions of the excess risk than EAR models. The leukemia results indicated that there was a non-linear dose response for leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia, which varied markedly with time and age at exposure, with much of the evidence for this non-linearity arising from the acute myeloid leukemia risks. Although the leukemia excess risks generally declined with attained age or time since exposure, there was evidence that the radiation-associated excess leukemia risks, especially for acute myeloid leukemia, had persisted throughout the follow-up period out to – 55 years after the bombings. As in earlier analyses, there was a weak suggestion of a radiation dose response for non-Hodgkin lymphoma among men with no indication of such an effect among women. There was no evidence of radiation-associated excess risks for either Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma. PMID:23398354

Biomarkers of head and neck cancer, tools or a gordian knot?

PubMed Central

Lampri, Evangeli S; Chondrogiannis, Georgios; Ioachim, Elli; Varouktsi, Anna; Mitselou, Antigoni; Galani, Aggeliki; Briassoulis, Evangelos; Kanavaros, Panagiotis; Galani, Vasiliki

2015-01-01

Head and neck tumors comprise a wide spectrum of heterogeneous neoplasms for which biomarkers are needed to aid in earlier diagnosis, risk assessment and therapy response. Personalized medicine based on predictive markers linked to drug response, it is hoped, will lead to improvements in outcomes and avoidance of unnecessary treatment in carcinoma of the head and neck. Because of the heterogeneity of head and neck tumors, the integration of multiple selected markers in association with the histopathologic features is advocated for risk assessment. Validation of each biomarker in the context of clinical trials will be required before a specific marker can be incorporated into daily practice. Furthermore, we will give evidence that some proteins implicated in cell-cell interaction, such as CD44 may be involved in the multiple mechanism of the development and progression of laryngeal lesions and may help to predict the risk of transformation of the benign or precancerous lesions to cancer. PMID:26379825

Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men.

PubMed

De Roos, A J; Zahm, S H; Cantor, K P; Weisenburger, D D; Holmes, F F; Burmeister, L F; Blair, A

2003-09-01

An increased rate of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) has been repeatedly observed among farmers, but identification of specific exposures that explain this observation has proven difficult. During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios.

Promoting Healthy Outcomes Among Youth with Multiple Risks: Innovative Approaches

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Mark T.; Lippold, Melissa A.

2015-01-01

Adolescent behavior problems such as substance use, antisocial behavior problems, and mental health problems have extremely high social costs and lead to overburdened mental health and juvenile justice systems in the United States and Europe. The prevalence of these problems is substantial, and at-risk youth often present with a combination of concerns. An understanding of risk and protective factors at multiple levels, including the child, family, peer, school, and community, has influenced intervention development. At the individual and family levels, the most effective and cost-effective programs work intensively with youth and their families or use individual and group cognitive-behavioral approaches. However, there is a paucity of careful studies of effective policies and programs in the juvenile justice system. Research is needed that focuses on adoption, financing, implementation, and sustainable use of evidence-based programs in public service systems. In addition, the field needs to understand better for whom current programs are most effective to create the next generation of more effective and efficient programs. PMID:23297659

Suicide Risk Among College Student. The Intersection of Sexual Orientation and Race.

PubMed

Shadick, Richard; Backus Dagirmanjian, Faedra; Barbot, Baptiste

2015-01-01

Research on young adults in the general population has identified a relationship between sexual minority identification and risk for suicide. Differential rates of suicidal ideation and attempts have also been found across racial and ethnic groups. This study examined risk for suicide among university students, based on membership in one or more marginalized groups (sexual minority and racial minority identification). Data were collected from first-year college students (N = 4,345) at an urban university. Structural equation modeling was employed to model a suicidality construct, based on which a "risk for suicide" category system was derived. Chi-square and logistic regression analyses were then conducted to estimate the relationship between the background variables of interest and suicide risk. Students who identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) were associated with higher suicide risk than their heterosexual peers. Students of color were slightly less at risk than their heterosexual peers. However, LGB students of color were associated with elevated suicide risk relative to heterosexual peers. Results indicate that belonging to multiple marginalized groups may increase one's risk for suicide, though these effects are not simply additive. Findings highlight the complexity of the intersection between marginalized identities and suicidality.

Sexual Health Risk Behavior Disparities Among Male and Female Adolescents Using Identity and Behavior Indicators of Sexual Orientation.

PubMed

Paul Poteat, V; Russell, Stephen T; Dewaele, Alexis

2017-12-04

Sexual minority adolescent sexual risk behavior studies often overlook young women, do not consider behavior- and identity-based sexual orientation indicators in combination, and focus mainly on condomless sex. We examined multiple risk behaviors in a large sample of adolescent young men and women using combined behavior- and identity-based indices. The 2015 Dane County Youth Assessment data included 4734 students in 22 high schools who had ever voluntarily engaged in sexual contact (51.7% male; 76.0% White, non-Hispanic). Items assessed having sex with unfamiliar partners, sex while using substances, using protection, and STI testing. Logistic regressions tested for disparities based on combined identity- and behavior-based sexual orientation indicators. For both young men and women, youth who reported heterosexual or questioning identities-but who had sex with same-sex partners-were at consistently greater risk than heterosexual youth with only different-sex partners. Also, for both young men and women, bisexuals with partners of both sexes more consistently reported higher risk than heterosexual youth than did bisexuals with only different-sex partners. Risk behavior for gay young men who had sex only with men mirrored those in extant literature. Risk levels differed for specific groups of sexual minority young women, thus deserving further attention. Findings underscore the need for sexual health research to consider sexual orientation in a more multidimensional manner.

Major stressful life events in adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bager, Peter; Simonsen, Jacob; Hviid, Anders; Stenager, Egon; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Koch-Henriksen, Nils; Frisch, Morten

2014-10-01

It is unclear whether psychological stress is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied the association between major stressful life events and MS in a nationwide cohort study using death of a child or a spouse or marital dissolution as indicators of severe stress. We created two study cohorts based on all Danish men and women born 1950-1992. One cohort consisted of all persons who became parents between 1968 and 2010, and another cohort consisted of all persons who married between 1968 and 2010. Members of both cohorts were followed for MS between 1982 and 2010 using data from the National Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Associations between major stressful life events and risk of MS were evaluated by means of MS incidence rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) obtained in Poisson regression analyses. During approximately 30 million person-years of follow-up, bereaved parents experienced no unusual risk of MS compared with parents who did not lose a child (RR=1.12 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.38)). Likewise, neither divorced (RR=0.98 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.06)) nor widowed (RR=0.98 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.32) persons were at any unusual risk of MS compared with married persons of the same sex. Our national cohort study provides little evidence for a causal association between major stressful life events (as exemplified by divorce or the loss of a child or a spouse) and subsequent MS risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Common colorectal cancer risk alleles contribute to the multiple colorectal adenoma phenotype, but do not influence colonic polyposis in FAP.

PubMed

Cheng, Timothy H T; Gorman, Maggie; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Casey, Graham; Saunders, Brian; Thomas, Huw; Clark, Sue; Tomlinson, Ian

2015-02-01

The presence of multiple (5-100) colorectal adenomas suggests an inherited predisposition, but the genetic aetiology of this phenotype is undetermined if patients test negative for Mendelian polyposis syndromes such as familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP). We investigated whether 18 common colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could help to explain some cases with multiple adenomas who phenocopied FAP or MAP, but had no pathogenic APC or MUTYH variant. No multiple adenoma case had an outlying number of CRC SNP risk alleles, but multiple adenoma patients did have a significantly higher number of risk alleles than population controls (P=5.7 × 10(-7)). The association was stronger in those with ≥10 adenomas. The CRC SNPs accounted for 4.3% of the variation in multiple adenoma risk, with three SNPs (rs6983267, rs10795668, rs3802842) explaining 3.0% of the variation. In FAP patients, the CRC risk score did not differ significantly from the controls, as we expected given the overwhelming effect of pathogenic germline APC variants on the phenotype of these cases. More unexpectedly, we found no evidence that the CRC SNPs act as modifier genes for the number of colorectal adenomas in FAP patients. In conclusion, common colorectal tumour risk alleles contribute to the development of multiple adenomas in patients without pathogenic germline APC or MUTYH variants. This phenotype may have 'polygenic' or monogenic origins. The risk of CRC in relatives of multiple adenoma cases is probably much lower for cases with polygenic disease, and this should be taken into account when counselling such patients.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies.

PubMed

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Pencina, Michael J; Folsom, Aaron R; Cupples, L Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M; Boerwinkle, Eric

2012-08-01

Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ = 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004-0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10-1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, L. P.

2003-01-01

Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

Socioeconomic status and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk in Kashmir, India.

PubMed

Dar, Nazir A; Shah, Idrees A; Bhat, Gulzar A; Makhdoomi, Muzamil A; Iqbal, Beenish; Rafiq, Rumaisa; Nisar, Iqra; Bhat, Arshid B; Nabi, Sumaiya; Masood, Akbar; Shah, Sajad A; Lone, Mohd M; Zargar, Showkat A; Islami, Farhad; Boffetta, Paolo

2013-09-01

Studies have persistently associated esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) risk with low socioeconomic status (SES), but this association is unexplored in Kashmir, an area with a high incidence of ESCC in the northernmost part of India. We carried out a case-control study to assess the association of multiple indicators of SES and ESCC risk in the Kashmir valley. A total number of 703 histologically confirmed ESCC cases and 1664 controls matched to the cases for age, sex, and district of residence were recruited from October 2008 to January 2012. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Composite wealth scores were constructed based on the ownership of several appliances using multiple correspondence analyses. Higher education, living in a kiln brick or concrete house, use of liquefied petroleum gas and electricity for cooking, and higher wealth scores all showed an inverse association with ESCC risk. Compared to farmers, individuals who had government jobs or worked in the business sector were at lower risk of ESCC, but this association disappeared in fully adjusted models. Occupational strenuous physical activity was strongly associated with ESCC risk. In summary, we found a strong relationship of low SES and ESCC in Kashmir. The findings need to be studied further to understand the mechanisms through which such SES parameters increase ESCC risk. © 2013 Japanese Cancer Association.

[Children with Multiple Risk Factor Exposition Benefit from the German "Strengthening Families Program"].

PubMed

Bröning, Sonja; Sack, Peter-Michael; Thomsen, Monika; Thomasius, Rainer

2016-09-01

Children with Multiple Risk Factor Exposition Benefit from the German "Strengthening Families Program" The German adaptation of the substance use-preventive family-based Strengthening Families Program 10-14 (SFP, Iowa version) was evaluated in a longitudinal two-year follow-up trial. Participants were N = 292 children with a mean age of twelve years at baseline, and N = 292 parents. We employed a multi-centric, randomized-controlled, two-armed (SFP vs. minimal control condition) study design. Following a "risk moderation hypothesis", we assumed that children with an elevated risk-exposition R(+) would benefit more than children with a low risk-exposition R(-) irrespective of the preventive intervention, and that R(+) under SFP would benefit more than R(+) under the minimal control condition. "Risk-exposition" was measured in correspondence with the Communities That Care Youth Survey-questionnaire. A total of 28 % of children were classified with an elevated risk level. Children's reports confirmed our hypothesis: R(+) report a total of eleven improvements, four of these being significantly more distinct than in the other groups (Anxiety-Depressivity, Punitive Parenting of mother, Punitive Parenting of father, Unbalanced family functioning). In three measures an improvement appears solely in R(+) under SFP (Satisfaction with family functioning, School Attachment and Peer Relationship Quality, Quality of Life). Parents' reports showed a similar tendency, but were less pronounced.

Individual and social determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

PubMed

Alamian, Arsham; Paradis, Gilles

2012-03-22

Behavioral risk factors are known to co-occur among youth, and to increase risks of chronic diseases morbidity and mortality later in life. However, little is known about determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors, particularly among youth. Previous studies have been cross-sectional and carried out without a sound theoretical framework. Using longitudinal data (n = 1135) from Cycle 4 (2000-2001), Cycle 5 (2002-2003) and Cycle 6 (2004-2005) of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, a nationally representative sample of Canadian children who are followed biennially, the present study examines the influence of a set of conceptually-related individual/social distal variables (variables situated at an intermediate distance from behaviors), and individual/social ultimate variables (variables situated at an utmost distance from behaviors) on the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors (physical inactivity, sedentary behavior, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and high body mass index) in a sample of children aged 10-11 years at baseline. Multiple behavioral risk factors were assessed using a multiple risk factor score. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS, version 9.1, and SUDAAN, version 9.01. Multivariate longitudinal Poisson models showed that social distal variables including parental/peer smoking and peer drinking (Log-likelihood ratio (LLR) = 187.86, degrees of freedom (DF) = 8, p < .001), as well as individual distal variables including low self-esteem (LLR = 76.94, DF = 4, p < .001) increased the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors. Individual ultimate variables including age, sex, and anxiety (LLR = 9.34, DF = 3, p < .05), as well as social ultimate variables including family socioeconomic status, and family structure (LLR = 10.93, DF = 5, p = .05) contributed minimally to the rate of co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors. The results suggest targeting individual/social distal variables in prevention programs of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

Skin cancer: an overview of epidemiology and risk factors.

PubMed

Gordon, Randy

2013-08-01

To provide a general overview of malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer, with an emphasis on epidemiology, clinical presentation, and the multiple and varied risk factors associated with skin cancer. Peer-reviewed journal articles, government health reports, book chapters, and Web-based resources. Skin cancer is the most common carcinoma, affecting millions worldwide. Incidence is increasing yearly, making it a pre-eminent public health threat. Myriad factors increase the risk of skin cancer and may serve as important prognostic indicators for the disease. To provide nurses with a clearer understanding of the causative mechanisms of skin cancer and an improved awareness of the risk factors associated with the disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a Roadmap for Integrating Computational and In Vitro Approaches in Risk-Based Chemical Safety Decisions (SSCT-SweTox)

EPA Science Inventory

Multiple drivers shape the types of chemical assessments performed within many regulatory agencies including economic considerations, data availability, and the ultimate application of the assessment. The result is that chemical assessments are “fit-for-purpose” ranging from pri...

"Act Healthy": Promoting Health Behaviors and Self-Efficacy in the Workplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schopp, Laura H.; Bike, Denise H.; Clark, Mary J.; Minor, Marian A.

2015-01-01

Chronic health conditions and multiple health risk factors afflict Americans and burden employers, but effective, affordable, workplace-based health promotion interventions have not been widely implemented. This is the first study to adapt the empirically validated Chronic Disease Self-Management Program for a general employee population in a…

Autism Spectrum Disorders in Hispanics and Non-Hispanics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaidez, Virginia; Hansen, Robin L.; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva

2012-01-01

Objectives: To compare differences in autism between Hispanic and non-Hispanics. We also examined the relationship between multiple language exposure and language function and scores of children. Methods: The Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and the Environment (CHARGE) study is an ongoing population-based case-control study with children…

Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) for Acute Toxicity: User Manual Version 3.3

EPA Science Inventory

Information on the acute toxicity to multiple species is needed for the assessment of the risks to, and the protection of, individuals, populations, and ecological communities. However, toxicity data are limited for the majority of species, while standard test species are general...

Summer School Effects in a Randomized Field Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zvoch, Keith; Stevens, Joseph J.

2013-01-01

This field-based randomized trial examined the effect of assignment to and participation in summer school for two moderately at-risk samples of struggling readers. Application of multiple regression models to difference scores capturing the change in summer reading fluency revealed that kindergarten students randomly assigned to summer school…

The Commission Game: An Ethics Activity for Professional Selling Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milewicz, Chad

2012-01-01

The Commission Game is an experiment-based experiential learning activity designed to elicit students' sincere ethical decision making in an ambiguous sales context. The activity includes multiple relevant stakeholders as well as tangible, shared risk/reward elements. The activity's design encourages students to contemplate their own personal code…

Risk-Based Neuro-Grid Architecture for Multimodal Biometrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkataraman, Sitalakshmi; Kulkarni, Siddhivinayak

Recent research indicates that multimodal biometrics is the way forward for a highly reliable adoption of biometric identification systems in various applications, such as banks, businesses, government and even home environments. However, such systems would require large distributed datasets with multiple computational realms spanning organisational boundaries and individual privacies.

Alcohol and cancer: risk perception and risk denial beliefs among the French general population.

PubMed

Bocquier, Aurélie; Fressard, Lisa; Verger, Pierre; Legleye, Stéphane; Peretti-Watel, Patrick

2017-08-01

Worldwide, millions of deaths each year are attributed to alcohol. We sought to examine French people's beliefs about the risks of alcohol, their correlates, and their associations with alcohol use. Data came from the 2010 Baromètre Cancer survey, a random cross-sectional telephone survey of the French general population (n = 3359 individuals aged 15-75 years). Using principal component analysis of seven beliefs about alcohol risks, we built two scores (one assessing risk denial based on self-confidence and the other risk relativization). Two multiple linear regressions explored these scores' socio-demographic and perceived information level correlates. Multiple logistic regressions tested the associations of these scores with daily drinking and with heavy episodic drinking (HED). About 60% of the respondents acknowledged that alcohol increases the risk of cancer, and 89% felt well-informed about the risks of alcohol. Beliefs that may promote risk denial were frequent (e.g. 72% agreed that soda and hamburgers are as bad as alcohol for your health). Both risk denial and risk relativization scores were higher among men, older respondents and those of low socioeconomic status. The probability of daily drinking increased with the risk relativization score and that of HED with both scores. Beliefs that can help people to deny the cancer risks due to alcohol use are common in France and may exist in many other countries where alcoholic beverages have been an integral part of the culture. These results can be used to redesign public information campaigns about the risks of alcohol. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Ayre, Kimberley K; Johns, Annie F; Summers, Heather M; Stinson, Jonah; Harris, Meagan J; Herring, Carlie E; Markiewicz, April J

2017-01-01

We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

PubMed

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Motor vehicle driving in high incidence psychiatric disability: comparison of drivers with ADHD, depression, and no known psychopathology.

PubMed

Aduen, Paula A; Kofler, Michael J; Cox, Daniel J; Sarver, Dustin E; Lunsford, Erin

2015-05-01

Although not often discussed in clinical settings, motor vehicle driving is a complex multitasking endeavor during which a momentary attention lapse can have devastating consequences. Previous research suggests that drivers with high incidence psychiatric disabilities such as ADHD contribute disproportionately to collision rates, which in turn portend myriad adverse social, financial, health, mortality, and legal outcomes. However, self-referral bias and the lack of psychiatric comparison groups constrain the generalizability of these findings. The current study addressed these limitations and examined the unique associations among ADHD, Depression, and adverse driving outcomes, independent of self-selection, driving exposure, and referral bias. The Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP-2) Naturalistic Driving Study comprises U.S. drivers from six sites selected via probability-based sampling. Groups were defined by Barkley ADHD and psychiatric diagnosis questionnaires, and included ADHD (n = 275), Depression (n = 251), and Healthy Control (n = 1828). Primary outcomes included self-reported traffic collisions, moving violations, collision-related injuries, and collision fault (last 3 years). Accounting for demographic differences, ADHD but not Depression portended increased risk for multiple violations (OR = 2.3) and multiple collisions (OR = 2.2). ADHD but not Depression portended increased risk for collision fault (OR = 2.1). Depression but not ADHD predicted increased risk for self-reported injury following collisions (OR = 2.4). ADHD appears uniquely associated with multiple collisions, multiple violations, and collision fault, whereas Depression is uniquely associated with self-reported injury following a collision. Identification of the specific mechanisms underlying this risk will be critical to designing effective interventions to improve long-term functioning for drivers with high incidence psychiatric disability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overexpression of the Cytokine BAFF and Autoimmunity Risk.

PubMed

Steri, Maristella; Orrù, Valeria; Idda, M Laura; Pitzalis, Maristella; Pala, Mauro; Zara, Ilenia; Sidore, Carlo; Faà, Valeria; Floris, Matteo; Deiana, Manila; Asunis, Isadora; Porcu, Eleonora; Mulas, Antonella; Piras, Maria G; Lobina, Monia; Lai, Sandra; Marongiu, Mara; Serra, Valentina; Marongiu, Michele; Sole, Gabriella; Busonero, Fabio; Maschio, Andrea; Cusano, Roberto; Cuccuru, Gianmauro; Deidda, Francesca; Poddie, Fausto; Farina, Gabriele; Dei, Mariano; Virdis, Francesca; Olla, Stefania; Satta, Maria A; Pani, Mario; Delitala, Alessandro; Cocco, Eleonora; Frau, Jessica; Coghe, Giancarlo; Lorefice, Lorena; Fenu, Giuseppe; Ferrigno, Paola; Ban, Maria; Barizzone, Nadia; Leone, Maurizio; Guerini, Franca R; Piga, Matteo; Firinu, Davide; Kockum, Ingrid; Lima Bomfim, Izaura; Olsson, Tomas; Alfredsson, Lars; Suarez, Ana; Carreira, Patricia E; Castillo-Palma, Maria J; Marcus, Joseph H; Congia, Mauro; Angius, Andrea; Melis, Maurizio; Gonzalez, Antonio; Alarcón Riquelme, Marta E; da Silva, Berta M; Marchini, Maurizio; Danieli, Maria G; Del Giacco, Stefano; Mathieu, Alessandro; Pani, Antonello; Montgomery, Stephen B; Rosati, Giulio; Hillert, Jan; Sawcer, Stephen; D'Alfonso, Sandra; Todd, John A; Novembre, John; Abecasis, Gonçalo R; Whalen, Michael B; Marrosu, Maria G; Meloni, Alessandra; Sanna, Serena; Gorospe, Myriam; Schlessinger, David; Fiorillo, Edoardo; Zoledziewska, Magdalena; Cucca, Francesco

2017-04-27

Genomewide association studies of autoimmune diseases have mapped hundreds of susceptibility regions in the genome. However, only for a few association signals has the causal gene been identified, and for even fewer have the causal variant and underlying mechanism been defined. Coincident associations of DNA variants affecting both the risk of autoimmune disease and quantitative immune variables provide an informative route to explore disease mechanisms and drug-targetable pathways. Using case-control samples from Sardinia, Italy, we performed a genomewide association study in multiple sclerosis followed by TNFSF13B locus-specific association testing in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Extensive phenotyping of quantitative immune variables, sequence-based fine mapping, cross-population and cross-phenotype analyses, and gene-expression studies were used to identify the causal variant and elucidate its mechanism of action. Signatures of positive selection were also investigated. A variant in TNFSF13B, encoding the cytokine and drug target B-cell activating factor (BAFF), was associated with multiple sclerosis as well as SLE. The disease-risk allele was also associated with up-regulated humoral immunity through increased levels of soluble BAFF, B lymphocytes, and immunoglobulins. The causal variant was identified: an insertion-deletion variant, GCTGT→A (in which A is the risk allele), yielded a shorter transcript that escaped microRNA inhibition and increased production of soluble BAFF, which in turn up-regulated humoral immunity. Population genetic signatures indicated that this autoimmunity variant has been evolutionarily advantageous, most likely by augmenting resistance to malaria. A TNFSF13B variant was associated with multiple sclerosis and SLE, and its effects were clarified at the population, cellular, and molecular levels. (Funded by the Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis and others.).

Clustering of adolescent health concerns: a latent class analysis of school students in New Zealand.

PubMed

Noel, Hannah; Denny, Simon; Farrant, Bridget; Rossen, Fiona; Teevale, Tasileta; Clark, Terryann; Fleming, Terry; Bullen, Pat; Sheridan, Janie; Fortune, Sarah

2013-11-01

The aims of this study are to identify clinically meaningful groups of adolescents based on their engagement in high levels of risk behaviours or severe emotional health concerns and to describe the demographic characteristics of these groups in two populations of school students in New Zealand. A nationally representative sample of secondary school students was surveyed in 2007; alternative education (AE) students in Auckland and Northland were surveyed in 2009. A total of 9107 secondary school students and 335 AE students completed a youth health questionnaire using Internet tablets. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify groups of students on the basis of distinct profiles of their risk behaviours and mental health concerns. The majority (80%) of students in secondary schools are 'healthy' and report few health concerns, 16% are considered 'risky' or 'distressed', and 4% report 'multiple' risk behaviour profiles or emotional health concerns. In AE, only 21% of students were considered 'healthy' with most featuring in the 'risky' or 'multiple' groups. Females were more likely to be 'distressed', whereas males were more likely to feature in the 'risky' or 'multiple' groups. Clinically-concerning health risk behaviours and emotional health concerns 'cluster' in up to 20% of students in secondary schools and up to 79% of students in AE. Gender, ethnic and socio-economic disparities are also observed. This highlights the importance of comprehensive psychosocial assessment and appropriate service provision, particularly for at-risk groups. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

Alcohol demand and risk preference

PubMed Central

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-01-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6–8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use. PMID:19956353

Mexican American Adolescents' Profiles of Risk and Mental Health: A Person-Centered Longitudinal Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeiders, Katharine H.; Roosa, Mark W.; Knight, George P.; Gonzales, Nancy A.

2013-01-01

Although Mexican American adolescents experience multiple risk factors in their daily lives, most research examines the influences of risk factors on adjustment independently, ignoring the additive and interactive effects of multiple risk factors. Guided by a person-centered perspective and utilizing latent profile analysis, this study identified…

Gender Differences in Risk/Protection Profiles for Low Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitney, Stephen D.; Renner, Lynette M.; Herrenkohl, Todd I.

2010-01-01

Using holistic-interactionistic theory, the simultaneous nature of risk and protection factors for both males and females (age 6-11 in Wave 1) is examined using latent profile analysis (LPA). Risk/protection classes are estimated using multiple risk factor variables (e.g., physical child abuse) and multiple protective factors (e.g.,…

Patients' perception of risk: informed choice in prenatal testing for foetal aneuploidy.

PubMed

Choolani, Mahesh; Biswas, Arijit

2012-10-01

Each of us perceives risk differently, and so do our patients. This perception of risk gets even more complex when multiple individuals and interactions are involved: the doctor, the patient-pregnant mother, the spouse-father and the foetus-unborn child. In this review, we address the relationship between different levels of information gathering, from clinical data to experiential knowledge - data, information, knowledge, perception, attitude, wisdom - and how these would impact the perception of risk and informed consent. We discuss how patients might interpret the risks of the same event differently based upon past experiences, and suggest how risk data could be presented more meaningfully for patients and family to assimilate for informed decision making. Finally, we demonstrate how patients' expectations and risk management can impact scientific research and clinical progress by way of the most topical subject of risk screening in pregnancy - non-invasive prenatal testing using cell-free DNA in maternal plasma.

The MAX Statistic is Less Powerful for Genome Wide Association Studies Under Most Alternative Hypotheses.

PubMed

Shifflett, Benjamin; Huang, Rong; Edland, Steven D

2017-01-01

Genotypic association studies are prone to inflated type I error rates if multiple hypothesis testing is performed, e.g., sequentially testing for recessive, multiplicative, and dominant risk. Alternatives to multiple hypothesis testing include the model independent genotypic χ 2 test, the efficiency robust MAX statistic, which corrects for multiple comparisons but with some loss of power, or a single Armitage test for multiplicative trend, which has optimal power when the multiplicative model holds but with some loss of power when dominant or recessive models underlie the genetic association. We used Monte Carlo simulations to describe the relative performance of these three approaches under a range of scenarios. All three approaches maintained their nominal type I error rates. The genotypic χ 2 and MAX statistics were more powerful when testing a strictly recessive genetic effect or when testing a dominant effect when the allele frequency was high. The Armitage test for multiplicative trend was most powerful for the broad range of scenarios where heterozygote risk is intermediate between recessive and dominant risk. Moreover, all tests had limited power to detect recessive genetic risk unless the sample size was large, and conversely all tests were relatively well powered to detect dominant risk. Taken together, these results suggest the general utility of the multiplicative trend test when the underlying genetic model is unknown.

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World – the Roskilde Recommendations

EPA Science Inventory

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosyst...

Analysis of clinical risk factors associated with the prognosis of severe multiple-trauma patients with acute lung injury.

PubMed

Wu, Junsong; Sheng, Lei; Wang, Shenhua; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Mao; Xu, Shaowen; Gan, Jianxin

2012-09-01

Several clinical risk factors have been reported to be associated with the prognosis of acute lung injury (ALI). However, these studies have included a general trauma patient population, without singling out the severely injured multiple-trauma patient population. To identify the potential risk factors that could affect the prognosis of ALI in multiple-trauma patients and investigate the prognostic effects of certain risk factors among different patient subpopulations. In this retrospective cohort study, severely injured multiple-trauma patients with early onset of ALI from several trauma centers were studied. Potential risk factors affecting the prognosis of ALI were examined by univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. There were 609 multiple-trauma patients with ALI admitted to the emergency department and emergency intensive care unit during the study period. The nine risk factors that affected prognosis, as indicated by the unadjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals, were the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) score, duration of trauma, age, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, pulmonary contusion, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), multiple blood transfusions in 6 h, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and aspiration of gastric contents. Specific risk factors also affected different patient subpopulations in different ways. Patients older than 65 years and with multiple (> 10 units) blood transfusions in the early stage after multiple trauma were found to be independent risk factors associated with deterioration of ALI. The other factors studied, including pulmonary contusion, APACHE II score ≥ 20, ISS ≥ 16, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and aspiration of gastric contents, may predict the unfavorable prognosis of ALI in the early stage of trauma, with their effects attenuating in the later stage. Duration of trauma ≥ 1 h and the presence of DIC may also indicate unfavorable prognosis during the entire treatment period. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

1999-01-01

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

Approach to evaluation and management of a patient with multiple food allergies.

PubMed

Bird, J Andrew

2016-01-01

Diagnosing food allergy is often challenging, and validated testing modalities are mostly limited to immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated reactions to foods. Use of food-specific IgE tests and skin prick tests in individuals without a history that supports an IgE-mediated reaction to the specific food being tested diminishes the predictive capabilities of the test. To review the literature regarding evaluation of patients with a concern for multiple food allergies and to demonstrate an evidence-based approach to diagnosis and management. A literature search was performed and articles identified as relevant based on the search terms "food allergy," "food allergy diagnosis," "skin prick test," "serum IgE test," "oral food challenge", and "food allergy management." Patients at risk of food allergy are often misdiagnosed and appropriate evaluation of patients with concern for food allergy includes taking a thorough diet history and reaction history, performing specific tests intentionally and when indicated, and conducting an oral food challenge in a safe environment by an experienced provider when test results are inconclusive. An evidence-based approach to diagnosing and managing a patient at risk of having a life-threatening food allergy is reviewed.

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating genome-wide association studies and gene expression data highlights dysregulated multiple sclerosis risk pathways.

PubMed

Liu, Guiyou; Zhang, Fang; Jiang, Yongshuai; Hu, Yang; Gong, Zhongying; Liu, Shoufeng; Chen, Xiuju; Jiang, Qinghua; Hao, Junwei

2017-02-01

Much effort has been expended on identifying the genetic determinants of multiple sclerosis (MS). Existing large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) datasets provide strong support for using pathway and network-based analysis methods to investigate the mechanisms underlying MS. However, no shared genetic pathways have been identified to date. We hypothesize that shared genetic pathways may indeed exist in different MS-GWAS datasets. Here, we report results from a three-stage analysis of GWAS and expression datasets. In stage 1, we conducted multiple pathway analyses of two MS-GWAS datasets. In stage 2, we performed a candidate pathway analysis of the large-scale MS-GWAS dataset. In stage 3, we performed a pathway analysis using the dysregulated MS gene list from seven human MS case-control expression datasets. In stage 1, we identified 15 shared pathways. In stage 2, we successfully replicated 14 of these 15 significant pathways. In stage 3, we found that dysregulated MS genes were significantly enriched in 10 of 15 MS risk pathways identified in stages 1 and 2. We report shared genetic pathways in different MS-GWAS datasets and highlight some new MS risk pathways. Our findings provide new insights on the genetic determinants of MS.

Application of High-Throughput In Vitro Assays for Risk-Based ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Multiple drivers shape the types of human-health assessments performed on chemicals by U.S. EPA resulting in chemical assessments are “fit-for-purpose” ranging from prioritization for further testing to full risk assessments. Layered on top of the diverse assessment needs are the resource intensive nature of traditional toxicological studies used to test chemicals and the lack of toxicity information on many chemicals. To address these challenges, the Agency initiated the ToxCast program to screen thousands of chemicals across hundreds of high-throughput screening assays in concentrations-response format. One of the findings of the project has been that the majority of chemicals interact with multiple biological targets within a narrow concentration range and the extent of interactions increases rapidly near the concentration causing cytotoxicity. This means that application of high-throughput in vitro assays to chemical assessments will need to identify both the relative selectivity at chemicals interact with biological targets and the concentration at which these interactions perturb signaling pathways. The integrated analyses will be used to both define a point-of-departure for comparison with human exposure estimates and identify which chemicals may benefit from further studies in a mode-of-action or adverse outcome pathway framework. The application of new technologies in a risk-based, tiered manner provides flexibility in matching throughput and cos

Project management tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maluf, David A. (Inventor); Bell, David G. (Inventor); Gurram, Mohana M. (Inventor); Gawdiak, Yuri O. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A system for managing a project that includes multiple tasks and a plurality of workers. Input information includes characterizations based upon a human model, a team model and a product model. Periodic reports, such as a monthly report, a task plan report, a budget report and a risk management report, are generated and made available for display or further analysis. An extensible database allows searching for information based upon context and upon content.

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

PubMed

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

2013-09-01

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

2014-04-18

Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κ<.30) as overall CHD risk increased. Conversely, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) interrater agreement improved (eg, up to κ=.25) as overall CHD risk increased. Overall CHD risk of the sample was lower than comparative population-based CHD risk (ie, no more than 15% risk of CHD for the sample vs up to a 30% chance of CHD for the population). Interventions are needed to improve knowledge of CHD risk factors. Specific interventions should address perceptions of HDL-C and LCL-C. Internet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan

2013-09-15

The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanismmore » or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.« less

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Normative beliefs and sexual risk in China.

PubMed

Li, Li; Ding, Ying Ying; Wu, Zunyou; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Guo, Sam

2011-08-01

We examined normative beliefs about multiple sexual partners and social status in China and their association with risky sexual behaviors and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Self-reported and biological markers of sexual risk were examined among 3,716 market vendors from a city in eastern China. Men who were older or with less education believed having multiple sexual partners was linked to higher social status. Adjusting for demographic characteristics, normative beliefs were significantly associated with having multiple sexual partners, while having multiple sexual partners was significantly associated with STIs. Normative beliefs regarding sexual behaviors may play an important role in individual risk behaviors. Future HIV/STI interventions must address community beliefs about the positive meaning of sexual risks, particularly among men with traditional beliefs about gender roles.

Hormonal and reproductive risk factors associated with breast cancer in Isfahan patients

PubMed Central

Tazhibi, Mehdi; Dehghani, Mohsen; Babazadeh, Shadi; Makkarian, Fariborz; Tabatabaeian, Maryam; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Rezaei, Parisa; Faghihi, Mehri

2014-01-01

Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent type of cancer among Iranian females; it is noteworthy that the condition of this type of cancer among Iranian women does not significantly differ from what has been reported from other countries. Considering the importance of this issue, identification of the backgrounds factors and risk factors of the breast cancer risk are highly needed. Therefore, the present study is aimed to compare the risk factors of resident patients of Isfahan province, Iran, with accredited risk factors by other countries and also identify the importance of each factor in the incidence of cancer. Materials and Methods: The present work is a case-control study, which was conducted in 2011. In order to conduct the study, 216 women who had been clinically identified with breast cancer were selected from Seiedo-Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran, as the case group. Moreover, 41 healthy women who were the relatives of the selected patients (i.e., sisters and aunts) were selected as the control group. The data and information of the patients from 1999 to 2010 were collected from either assessing the database system of the center for breast cancer research or interviewing the patients through phone. To analyze the data, multiple logistic regression method was applied. Results: The range of age among selected individuals in this study was from 20-75 years old. The determinant factors for odds of breast cancer included in the applied multiple logistic regression model were the use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) (odds ratio [OR] =0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.04-0.75) as the protective factor, hormone replacement therapy (OR = 10.2, 95% CI = 1.18-88.89) and menopause at old age (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.11-2.12) as the risk factors. Furthermore, there was not seen any significant relationship between age, vocation, and marital status with odds of breast cancer in multiple model. Conclusion: Based on the results, use of OCPs as protective factor, hormone replacement therapy, and menopause at old age are identified as the risk factors in developing breast cancer among women. Influencing and modifiable factors should be considered very important in society based interventions and preventive interventions planning. PMID:25077162

77 FR 35852 - Safety Zones; Multiple Firework Displays in Captain of the Port, Puget Sound Zone

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-15

... 13045, Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks. This rule is not an economically significant rule and does not create an environmental risk to health or risk to safety that may... 1625-AA00 Safety Zones; Multiple Firework Displays in Captain of the Port, Puget Sound Zone AGENCY...

Understanding Suicide Across the Lifespan: A United States Perspective of Suicide Risk Factors, Assessment & Management.

PubMed

Steele, Ian H; Thrower, Natasha; Noroian, Paul; Saleh, Fabian M

2018-01-01

Suicide is a troubling, preventable phenomenon. Prior to attempts, individuals often seek help, prompting practitioners to perform risk assessments that ideally use evidence-based risk management strategies. A literature review was performed using Harvard Countway Library of Medicine, Google Scholar, PubMed. Key words used were "Forensic Science," "Suicide Risk Management," "Pediatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Adult Suicide Risk Factors," "Geriatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Suicide Risk Assessment." Parameters limited articles to studies/reviews completed in the past twenty years in the United States. Results indicated predictors of suicide in juveniles were insomnia, burdensomeness, and recent conflicts with family or a romantic partner. Adults had greater risk if male, substance abusing, with marital/job loss. Elderly individuals with multiple medical comorbidities, hopelessness, and isolation were at higher risk. Everyone evaluated should be screened for access to firearms. Management of suicide risk involves providing the least restrictive form of treatment which maintains an individual's safety. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Multiple Myeloma Index for Risk of Infection.

PubMed

T, Valkovic; V, Gacic; A, Nacinovic-Duletic

2018-01-01

Based on our earlier research into the main characteristics and risk factors for infections in hospitalized patients with multiple myeloma, we created the numerical Multiple Myeloma Index for Risk of Infection (MMIRI) to predict infection in myeloma patients. The included factors that could influence the pathogenesis and incidence of infections were sex, performance status, Durie Salmon stage of disease, International Staging System, serum creatinine level, immune paresis, neutropenia, serum ferritin level, the presence of any catheters, disease duration, stable/progressive disease, and type of therapy. For each of these parameters, the strength of association with infection was statistically estimated and specific number of points was assigned to each of these parameters, proportional to the strength of the association. When designing the MMIRI, we included only those parameters that we determined were pathophysiologically associated with the infection. After further statistical analysis, we identified an optimal cutoff score of 6 or above as indicating a significant risk for infection, with a sensitivity of 93.2% and specificity of 80.2%. The scoring system in the retrospective receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.918. The potential value of the MMIRI is the possibility of identifying those patients who would benefit from the prophylactic administration of antibiotics and other anti-infective measures while minimizing the contribution to antibiotic resistance related to the overuse of these drugs. As far as we know, this index represents the first attempt to create such an instrument for predicting the occurrence of infections in myeloma patients.

Making assessments while taking repeated risks: a pattern of multiple response pathways.

PubMed

Pleskac, Timothy J; Wershbale, Avishai

2014-02-01

Beyond simply a decision process, repeated risky decisions also require a number of cognitive processes including learning, search and exploration, and attention. In this article, we examine how multiple response pathways develop over repeated risky decisions. Using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a case study, we show that 2 different response pathways emerge over the course of the task. The assessment pathway is a slower, more controlled pathway where participants deliberate over taking a risk. The 2nd pathway is a faster, more automatic process where no deliberation occurs. Results imply the slower assessment pathway is taken as choice conflict increases and that the faster automatic response is a learned response. Based on these results, we modify an existing formal cognitive model of decision making during the BART to account for these dual response pathways. The slower more deliberative response process is modeled with a sequential sampling process where evidence is accumulated to a threshold, while the other response is given automatically. We show that adolescents with conduct disorder and substance use disorder symptoms not only evaluate risks differently during the BART but also differ in the rate at which they develop the more automatic response. More broadly, our results suggest cognitive models of judgment decision making need to transition from treating observed decisions as the result of a single response pathway to the result of multiple response pathways that change and develop over time.

Trade-space Analysis for Constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Moigne, J.; Dabney, P.; de Weck, O. L.; Foreman, V.; Grogan, P.; Holland, M. P.; Hughes, S. P.; Nag, S.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: "How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best cost/risk value?" The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time. This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit & Coverage, Reduction & Metrics, and Cost& Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance. TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life: Protocol for a community-based randomised controlled trial of a multi-modal exercise and osteoporosis education program for older adults at risk of falls and fractures

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Osteoporosis affects over 220 million people worldwide, and currently there is no ‘cure’ for the disease. Thus, there is a need to develop evidence-based, safe and acceptable prevention strategies at the population level that target multiple risk factors for fragility fractures to reduce the health and economic burden of the condition. Methods/design The Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life study will investigate the effectiveness and feasibility of a multi-component targeted exercise, osteoporosis education/awareness and behavioural change program for improving bone health and muscle function and reducing falls risk in community-dwelling older adults at an increased risk of fracture. Men and women aged ≥60 years will participate in an 18-month randomised controlled trial comprising a 12-month structured and supervised community-based program and a 6-month ‘research to practise’ translational phase. Participants will be randomly assigned to either the Osteo-cise intervention or a self-management control group. The intervention will comprise a multi-modal exercise program incorporating high velocity progressive resistance training, moderate impact weight-bearing exercise and high challenging balance exercises performed three times weekly at local community-based fitness centres. A behavioural change program will be used to enhance exercise adoption and adherence to the program. Community-based osteoporosis education seminars will be conducted to improve participant knowledge and understanding of the risk factors and preventative measures for osteoporosis, falls and fractures. The primary outcomes measures, to be collected at baseline, 6, 12, and 18 months, will include DXA-derived hip and spine bone mineral density measurements and functional muscle power (timed stair-climb test). Secondary outcomes measures include: MRI-assessed distal femur and proximal tibia trabecular bone micro-architecture, lower limb and back maximal muscle strength, balance and function (four square step test, functional reach test, timed up-and-go test and 30-second sit-to-stand), falls incidence and health-related quality of life. Cost-effectiveness will also be assessed. Discussion The findings from the Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life study will provide new information on the efficacy of a targeted multi-modal community-based exercise program incorporating high velocity resistance training, together with an osteoporosis education and behavioural change program for improving multiple risk factors for falls and fracture in older adults at risk of fragility fracture. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry reference ACTRN12609000100291 PMID:22640372

Using Integrated Earth and Social Science Data for Disaster Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Yetman, G.

2016-12-01

Society faces many different risks from both natural and technological hazards. In some cases, disaster risk managers focus on only a few risks, e.g., in regions where a single hazard such as earthquakes dominate. More often, however, disaster risk managers deal with multiple hazards that pose diverse threats to life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. From the viewpoint of scientists, hazards are often studied based on traditional disciplines such as seismology, hydrology, climatology, and epidemiology. But from the viewpoint of disaster risk managers, data are needed on all hazards in a specific region and on the exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, and economic resources and activity. Such managers also need to understand how hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities may interact, and human and environmental systems respond, to hazard events, as in the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed from the Sendai earthquake and tsunami. In this regard, geospatial tools that enable visualization and analysis of both Earth and social science data can support the use case of disaster risk managers who need to quickly assess where specific hazard events occur relative to population and critical infrastructure. Such information can help them assess the potential severity of actual or predicted hazard events, identify population centers or key infrastructure at risk, and visualize hazard dynamics, e.g., earthquakes and their aftershocks or the paths of severe storms. This can then inform efforts to mitigate risks across multiple hazards, including reducing exposure and vulnerability, strengthening system resiliency, improving disaster response mechanisms, and targeting mitigation resources to the highest or most critical risks. We report here on initial efforts to develop hazard mapping tools that draw on open web services and support simple spatial queries about population exposure. The NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Hazards Mapper, a web-based mapping tool, enables users to estimate population living in areas subject to flood or tornado warnings, near recent earthquakes, or around critical infrastructure. The HazPop mobile app, implemented for iOS devices, utilizes location services to support disaster risk managers working in field conditions.

A Qualitative Approach on Motives and Aspects of Risks in Freeriding

PubMed Central

Frühauf, Anika; Hardy, Will A. S.; Pfoestl, Daniel; Hoellen, Franz-Georg; Kopp, Martin

2017-01-01

Recent research has shown that there are multiple motives for participation in high-risk sport; however these results have come from studies that consider a number of different sports. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to better understand the motives and risk-related aspects of freeriding, using a qualitative approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 40 professional and semi-professional freeride skiers and snowboarders. All freeriders were highly experienced, of different age (19–44 years; 27.5 ± 4.5 years), gender (female = 13), and profession (professional athletes = 11). Analyses were done using MAXQDA software following a code theme approach. Mixed methods analyses using χ2-tests were computed for age (<25 years ≥) and gender (female/male) on motives and risk factors. Five emerging themes were found, namely Challenge (n = 36), Friends (n = 31), Nature (n = 27), Balance (n = 26), and Freedom (n = 26). A sixth theme Habit (n = 13) was allocated as a subtheme due to minor responses. With regard to risk management, participants decided upon a risk calculation strategy which included multiple factors (e.g., planning, conditions, current situation, knowledge, and experience). Trusting in one's own abilities, avoiding negative fear and having trusted partners were among the risk factors. Deliberately seeking out dangerous situations was not a motive. χ2-tests revealed no gender or age differences regarding aspects of risk (range of p-scores: p = 0.17–1.00) or motives (p = 0.16–1.00). Freeriding was shown to provide positive effects through participation. Some important factors seem to be motivational drivers for freeriders: challenging oneself, experiencing nature, contributing to deep friendships, freeriding as a counterbalance to everyday life and escape from restrictions. Contrary to prior research reports on sensation seeking, experienced freeriders do not search the risk; they seem to minimize it based on knowledge and experience. Analyses of the present data did not show any gender or age differences, which may suggest that experience plays a more important role in high-risk sports than age or gender. Future research should qualitatively investigate further terrain based activities and implement motives and risk-related factors in quantitative research. PMID:29184524

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit from coordination of information from several different scientific disciplines, including, for example, toxicology, epidemiology, nutrition, neurotoxicology, and the social sciences. PMID:21776216

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

Students enrolled in school-sponsored work programs: the effect of multiple jobs on workplace safety and school-based behaviors.

PubMed

Zierold, Kristina M; Appana, Savi; Anderson, Henry A

2011-08-01

Throughout the United States, over 70% of public schools with 12th grade offer school-sponsored work (SSW) programs for credit; 60% offer job-shadowing programs for students. Wisconsin offers a variety of work-based learning programs for students, including, but not limited to, job shadowing, internships, co-op education, and youth apprenticeship programs. No research has compared workplace injury and school-based behaviors in students enrolled in SSW programs who work only 1 job compared with those who work multiple jobs. A total of 6810 students in the 5 public health regions in Wisconsin responded to an anonymous questionnaire that was administered in 2003. The questionnaire asked about employment, injury, characteristics of injury, and school-based behaviors and performance. A total of 3411 high school students aged 14 to 18 reported they were employed during the school year. Among the working students, 13.5% were enrolled in a SSW program. Of the SSW students, 44% worked multiple jobs. SSW students who worked multiple jobs were more likely to do hazardous job tasks, to work after 11 PM, to work over 40 hours per week, to have a near-miss incident, to have a coworker injured, and to be injured at work. SSW students who are working multiple jobs are violating labor laws that put their safety and their school performance at risk. The responsibilities of employers and schools have to be addressed to ensure that SSW students are abiding by labor laws when working multiple jobs.

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

[Fitness of workers with particular sensitivity to non-ionizing radiation].

PubMed

Moccaldi, R; Grandi, C

2011-01-01

Chapter IV and V of Title VIII of D.Lgs 81/2008, implementing the Directives 2004/40/EC respectively (protection of workers exposed to electromagnetic fields) and 2006/25/EC (protection of workers exposed to artificial optical radiation), make frequent reference to the workers as "at particular risk" namely those workers who, by their biological or pathological characteristics, lifestyles, multiple exposure to other risk factors, may be more susceptible to the effects of electromagnetic fields or optical radiation. The identification of workers with particular sensitivity is essential for health surveillance, in particular regarding the determination of fitness. The operational guidance on Title VIII of D.Lgs 81/2008 drafted by the Italian Technical Coordination for Safety in the workplace of Regions and Autonomous Provinces (Document No. 1-2009), in collaboration with ISPESL and ISS, includes a preliminary identification of the categories of workers considered most susceptible to the risk from exposure to electromagnetic fields and optical radiation. On the basis of this information the authors identified more focused and structured classes of workers to be considered as "particularly sensitive to risk", it is not only related to a specific wavelength, but based on a comprehensive risk assessment in individual exposure situation, with regard to the exposure levels, any multiple exposures, the possibility of adequate personal protection.

Visceral adiposity as a target for the management of the metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Kishida, Ken; Funahashi, Tohru; Matsuzawa, Yuji; Shimomura, Iichiro

2012-05-01

Atherosclerosis, the underlying cause of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD), develops due not only to a single cardiovascular risk factor but to a variety of complex factors. The concept of the multiple cardiometabolic risk factor clustering syndrome has been proposed as a highly atherogenic state, independent of hypercholesterolemia and smoking. Body fat distribution, especially visceral fat accumulation, is a major correlate of a cluster of diabetogenic, atherogenic, prothrombotic, and proinflammatory metabolic abnormalities referred to as the metabolic syndrome, with dysfunctional adipocytes and dysregulated production of adipocytokines (hypoadiponectinemia). Medical research has focused on visceral adiposity as an important component of the syndrome in Japanese subjects with a mild degree of adiposity compared with Western subjects. For the prevention of ACVD at least in Japan, it might be practical to stratify subjects with multiple risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on visceral fat accumulation. Visceral fat reduction through health promotion programs using risk factor-oriented approaches may be effective in reducing ACVD events, as well as producing improvement in risks and hypoadiponectinemia. This review article discusses visceral adiposity as a key player in the syndrome. Visceral fat reduction with life-style modification is a potentially useful strategy in the prevention of ACVD in patients with the metabolic syndrome.

Involvement in Specific HIV Risk Practices among Men Who Use the Internet to Find Male Partners for Unprotected Sex

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose. Men who have sex with other men (MSM) account for more than one-half of all new HIV infections in the USA. This study reports on the prevalence of a variety of HIV risk behaviors in one specific subpopulation of risk-seeking MSM. Methods. The study was based on a national sample of 332 MSM who use the Internet to find partners for unprotected sex. Data collection was conducted via telephone interviews between January 2008 and May 2009. Results. Unprotected oral and anal sex was commonplace among study participants. Men engaged in a large number of other risky behaviors as well, including having had multiple recent sex partners (mean number = 11), simultaneous double-penile penetration of the anus (16%), eating semen out of another man's anus (17%), engaging in multiple-partner sexual encounters (47%), engaging in anonymous sex (51%), and having sex while “under the influence” (52%). Conclusions. HIV intervention and prevention programs need to address numerous behaviors that place MSM at risk for contracting/transmitting HIV. Merely focusing on unprotected anal sex does a disservice to members of this community, who typically engage in many types of behavioral risks, each of which requires addressing if HIV transmission rates are to be reduced. PMID:24826369

Level of education and multiple sclerosis risk over a 50-year period: Registry-based sibling study.

PubMed

Bjørnevik, Kjetil; Riise, Trond; Benjaminsen, Espen; Celius, Elisabeth G; Dahl, Ole P; Kampman, Margitta T; Løken-Amsrud, Kristin I; Midgard, Rune; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Torkildsen, Øivind; Vatne, Anita; Grytten, Nina

2017-02-01

The conflicting results from studies on socioeconomic status (SES) and multiple sclerosis (MS) risk might be due to a change in the distribution of environmental exposures over time or to methodological limitations in previous research. To examine the association between SES and MS risk during 50 years. We included patients registered in Norwegian MS registries and prevalence studies born between 1930 and 1979, and identified their siblings and parents using the Norwegian Population Registry. Information on education was retrieved from the National Education Registry, categorized into four levels (primary, secondary, undergraduate and graduate) and compared in patients and siblings using conditional logistic regression. A total of 4494 MS patients and 9193 of their siblings were included in the analyses. Level of education was inversely associated with MS risk ( p trend < 0.001) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.90) when comparing the highest and lowest levels. The effect estimates did not vary markedly between participants born before or after the median year of birth (1958), but we observed a significant effect modification by parental education ( p = 0.047). Level of education was inversely associated with MS risk, and the estimates were similar in the earliest and latest birth cohorts.

Familial risks of breast and prostate cancers: does the definition of the at risk period matter?

PubMed

Brandt, Andreas; Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2010-03-01

'Being at familial risk' may have different connotations in studies on familial risk of cancer. The register-based definition of a family history considers individuals with an affected relative at familial risk independently of the family member's diagnostic time. Alternatively, the individuals are classified to be at familial risk only after the diagnosis date of their relative, relevant to clinical counselling and screening situations. The aim of this study was to compare familial breast and prostate cancer risks according to the two definitions. The nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database with information on cancers from 1958 to 2006 was used to calculate the hazard ratio of breast and prostate cancers according to family history using Cox regression. Family history was defined considering the number and type of affected relatives and the relative's diagnostic age, respectively. Individuals were considered at familial risk from their entry to the study or, alternatively, from the diagnostic time of the relative. Hazard ratios were equal whether individuals were considered at risk independent of the relative's diagnostic date or only after the relative's diagnostic date. These results indicate that studies on familial breast or prostate cancer risk which do not take the relative's diagnosis date into account are applicable to screening and clinical counselling situations. The estimates according to the register-based definition are based on larger numbers of patients, which may be crucial for analysis of small groups such as families of multiple cases. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic and psychosocial differences in psychiatrically hospitalized military service members with single versus multiple suicide attempts.

PubMed

Kochanski-Ruscio, Kristen M; Carreno-Ponce, Jaime T; DeYoung, Kathryn; Grammer, Geoffrey; Ghahramanlou-Holloway, Marjan

2014-04-01

Individuals with multiple versus single suicide attempts present a more severe clinical picture and may be at greater risk for suicide. Yet group differences within military samples have been vastly understudied. The objective is to determine demographic, diagnostic, and psychosocial differences, based on suicide attempt status, among military inpatients admitted for suicide-related events. A retrospective chart review design was used with a total of 423 randomly selected medical records of psychiatric admissions to a military hospital from 2001 to 2006. Chi-square analyses indicated that individuals with multiple versus single suicide attempts were significantly more likely to have documented childhood sexual abuse (p =.025); problem substance use (p=.001); mood disorder diagnosis (p=.005); substance disorder diagnosis (p =.050); personality disorder not otherwise specified diagnosis (p =.018); and Axis II traits or diagnosis (p=.038) when compared to those with a single attempt history. Logistic regression analyses showed that males with multiple suicide attempts were more likely to have problem substance use (p=.005) and a mood disorder diagnosis (p =.002), while females with a multiple attempt history were more likely to have a history of childhood sexual (p =.027). Clinically meaningful differences among military inpatients with single versus multiple suicide attempts exist. Targeted Department of Defense suicide prevention and intervention efforts that address the unique needs of these two specific at-risk subgroups are additionally needed. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Acute acalculous cholecystitis: A new safety risk for patients with MS treated with alemtuzumab.

PubMed

Croteau, David; Flowers, Charlene; Kulick, Corrinne G; Brinker, Allen; Kortepeter, Cindy M

2018-05-01

To evaluate acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC) as a potential safety risk for patients treated with alemtuzumab. The Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System and the medical literature were searched for cases of AAC in conjunction with alemtuzumab for all clinical indications. Eight spontaneously reported cases meeting the case definition of AAC in close temporal association with alemtuzumab use were identified. Based on established criteria within the Food and Drug Administration Division of Pharmacovigilance for causality assessment, 4 cases were assessed as probable while 4 were possible. All cases occurred in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Seven of the 8 cases presented with AAC during or shortly after alemtuzumab treatment, thereby suggesting an acute cytokine release syndrome as a putative pathogenic mechanism. The cases identified in this review differ from the typical AAC cases described in the medical literature based on female preponderance, lack of concurrent critical illnesses, inconsistent presence of other risk factors, and resolution with conservative treatment in the majority of cases. AAC represents a new and potentially life-threatening adverse event associated with alemtuzumab use in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. In cases seen to date, early and conservative treatment resulted in good clinical outcome, although the natural history of AAC in this population without critical illness is not well defined. Awareness of this safety risk by general and specialty neurologists is important for prompt recognition and optimal management. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

An initial investigation on developing a new method to predict short-term breast cancer risk based on deep learning technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yuchen; Wang, Yunzhi; Yan, Shiju; Tan, Maxine; Cheng, Samuel; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2016-03-01

In order to establish a new personalized breast cancer screening paradigm, it is critically important to accurately predict the short-term risk of a woman having image-detectable cancer after a negative mammographic screening. In this study, we developed and tested a novel short-term risk assessment model based on deep learning method. During the experiment, a number of 270 "prior" negative screening cases was assembled. In the next sequential ("current") screening mammography, 135 cases were positive and 135 cases remained negative. These cases were randomly divided into a training set with 200 cases and a testing set with 70 cases. A deep learning based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) scheme was then developed for the risk assessment, which consists of two modules: adaptive feature identification module and risk prediction module. The adaptive feature identification module is composed of three pairs of convolution-max-pooling layers, which contains 20, 10, and 5 feature maps respectively. The risk prediction module is implemented by a multiple layer perception (MLP) classifier, which produces a risk score to predict the likelihood of the woman developing short-term mammography-detectable cancer. The result shows that the new CAD-based risk model yielded a positive predictive value of 69.2% and a negative predictive value of 74.2%, with a total prediction accuracy of 71.4%. This study demonstrated that applying a new deep learning technology may have significant potential to develop a new short-term risk predicting scheme with improved performance in detecting early abnormal symptom from the negative mammograms.

The Cardiovascular Intervention Improvement Telemedicine Study (CITIES): Rationale for a Tailored Behavioral and Educational Pharmacist-Administered Intervention for Achieving Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

PubMed Central

Zullig, Leah L.; Melnyk, S. Dee; Stechuchak, Karen M.; McCant, Felicia; Danus, Susanne; Oddone, Eugene; Bastian, Lori; Olsen, Maren; Edelman, David; Rakley, Susan; Morey, Miriam

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes are significant, but often preventable, contributors to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Medication and behavioral nonadherence are significant barriers to successful hypertension, hyperlidemia, and diabetes management. Our objective was to describe the theoretical framework underlying a tailored behavioral and educational pharmacist-administered intervention for achieving CVD risk reduction. Materials and Methods: Adults with poorly controlled hypertension and/or hyperlipidemia were enrolled from three outpatient primary care clinics associated with the Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center (Durham, NC). Participants were randomly assigned to receive a pharmacist-administered, tailored, 1-year telephone-based intervention or usual care. The goal of the study was to reduce the risk for CVD through a theory-driven intervention to increase medication adherence and improve health behaviors. Results: Enrollment began in November 2011 and is ongoing. The target sample size is 500 patients. Conclusions: The Cardiovascular Intervention Improvement Telemedicine Study (CITIES) intervention has been designed with a strong theoretical underpinning. The theoretical foundation and intervention are designed to encourage patients with multiple comorbidities and poorly controlled CVD risk factors to engage in home-based monitoring and tailored telephone-based interventions. Evidence suggests that clinical pharmacist-administered telephone-based interventions may be efficiently integrated into primary care for patients with poorly controlled CVD risk factors. PMID:24303930

Association between exposure to farm animals and pets and risk of Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Siejka, Dylan; Taylor, Bruce; Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; Dwyer, Terence; van der Mei, Ingrid

2016-11-01

There exists inconsistent evidence regarding animals including pets as risk factors for the development of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). We investigated the association between farm animals and pets as possible environmental factors in MS development. Population based case-control study with 136 clinically definite MS cases and 272 controls randomly chosen from the community matched on sex and age. Data was collected from both questionnaire and a lifetime calendar detailing residence, occupation and pet/animal exposure over the course of participant's lives. Exposure to farming, livestock, specific farm animals and remoteness of residence showed no significant association with MS risk. Exposure to cats prior to disease onset was associated with a greater risk of MS (Adjusted Odds Ratio 2.46 (1.17-5.18)) but without a clear dose-response (test for trend, p=0.76). In contrast to other literature, farming and exposure to farm animals were not associated with MS. While we identified an association between cat exposure and MS, there was no dose-response relationship, and previous studies showed inconsistent results, leaving us to conclude that there is no strong evidence that exposure to cats is associated with MS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subjective Memory Complaints are Associated with Incident Dementia in Cognitively Intact Older People, but Not in Those with Cognitive Impairment: A 24-Month Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Tsutsumimoto, Kota; Makizako, Hyuma; Doi, Takehiko; Hotta, Ryo; Nakakubo, Sho; Makino, Keitaro; Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzuki, Takao

2017-06-01

Although subjective memory complaints (SMCs) are considered a risk factor for incident dementia in older people, the effect might differ based on cognitive function. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the effect of SMCs on the incidence of dementia in older people differed based on cognitive function. A 24-month follow-up cohort study. Japanese community. Prospective, longitudinal data for incident dementia were collected for 3,672 participants (mean age: 71.7 years; 46.5% men) for up to 24 months. Baseline measurements included covariates for incident dementia, SMCs, and cognitive function. Associations between SMCs, cognitive impairment, and incident dementia were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Incidences of dementia in the cognitively intact without SMC, cognitively intact with SMC, cognitive impairment without SMC, and cognitive impairment with SMC groups were 0.3%, 1.8%, 3.4%, and 4.8%, respectively. In the cognitively intact participants, SMCs were associated with a significantly higher risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-16.11, p = 0.008). Incident dementia with cognitive impairment was not significantly different based on SMC presence (p = 0.527). Participants with cognitive impairment in multiple domains had a significantly higher risk of incident dementia (HR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.01-4.24, p = 0.046) CONCLUSION: SMCs were related with dementia in cognitively intact older people, but not in those with cognitive impairment.Multiple domains of cognitive impairment were associated with a higher risk of incident dementia. Copyright © 2017 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Intervention Mapping to develop a community-based health promotion pre-pregnancy intervention for adolescent girls in rural South Africa: Project Ntshembo (Hope)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background South Africa (SA) is undergoing multiple transitions with an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and high levels of overweight and obesity in adolescent girls and women. Adolescence is key to addressing trans-generational risk and a window of opportunity to intervene and positively impact on individuals’ health trajectories into adulthood. Using Intervention Mapping (IM), this paper describes the development of the Ntshembo intervention, which is intended to improve the health and well-being of adolescent girls in order to limit the inter-generational transfer of risk of metabolic disease, in particular diabetes risk. Methods This paper describes the application of the first four steps of IM. Evidence is provided to support the selection of four key behavioural objectives: viz. to eat a healthy, balanced diet, increase physical activity, reduce sedentary behaviour, and promote reproductive health. Appropriate behaviour change techniques are suggested and a theoretical framework outlining components of relevant behaviour change theories is presented. It is proposed that the Ntshembo intervention will be community-based, including specialist adolescent community health workers who will deliver a complex intervention comprising of individual, peer, family and community mobilisation components. Conclusions The Ntshembo intervention is novel, both in SA and globally, as it is: (1) based on strong evidence, extensive formative work and best practice from evaluated interventions; (2) combines theory with evidence to inform intervention components; (3) includes multiple domains of influence (community through to the individual); (4) focuses on an at-risk target group; and (5) embeds within existing and planned health service priorities in SA. PMID:25080940

Clustering of Adolescent Dating Violence, Peer Violence, and Suicidal Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bossarte, Robert M.; Simon, Thomas R.; Swahn, Monica H.

2008-01-01

To understand the co-occurrence of multiple types of violence, the authors developed a behavioral typology based on self-reports of suicidal behaviors, physical violence, and psychological abuse. Using a sample of dating adolescents from a high-risk school district, they identified five clusters of behaviors among the 1,653 students who reported…

First-Degree Relatives of Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Some Gender Aspects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eriksson, Mats Anders; Westerlund, Joakim; Anderlid, Britt Marie; Gillberg, Christopher; Fernell, Elisabeth

2012-01-01

Prenatal risk factors, with special focus on gender distribution of neurodevelopmental and psychiatric conditions were analysed in first-degree relatives in a population-based group of young children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Multiple information sources were combined. This group was contrasted with the general population regarding…

Psychiatric Morbidity, Violent Crime, and Suicide among Children and Adolescents Exposed to Parental Death

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Holly C.; Kuramoto, Satoko J.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Langstrom, Niklas; Brent, David A.; Runeson, Bo

2010-01-01

Objective: This retrospective cohort study examined the risk for suicide, psychiatric hospitalization, and violent criminal convictions among offspring of parents who died from suicide, accidents, and other causes. Method: Population-based data from multiple Swedish national registers were linked from 1969 to 2004. Participants were 44,397…

Continuous Toxicological Dose-Response Relationships Are Pretty Homogeneous (Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

Dose-response relationships for a wide range of in vivo and in vitro continuous datasets are well-described by a four-parameter exponential or Hill model, based on a recent analysis of multiple historical dose-response datasets, mostly with more than five dose groups (Slob and Se...

Perspectives of Mexican-Origin Smokers on Healthy Eating and Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strong, Larkin L.; Hoover, Diana S.; Heredia, Natalia I.; Krasny, Sarah; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Wetter, David W.; Fernandez, Maria E.

2016-01-01

Key modifiable risk behaviors such as smoking, poor diet and physical inactivity often cluster and may have multiplicative adverse effects on health. This study investigated barriers and facilitators to healthy eating and physical activity (PA) in overweight Mexican-origin smokers to inform the adaptation of an evidence-based smoking cessation…

Mediation Analysis of an Adolescent HIV/STI/Pregnancy Prevention Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glassman, Jill R.; Franks, Heather M.; Baumler, Elizabeth R.; Coyle, Karin K.

2014-01-01

Most interventions designed to prevent HIV/STI/pregnancy risk behaviours in young people have multiple components based on psychosocial theories (e.g. social cognitive theory) dictating sets of mediating variables to influence to achieve desired changes in behaviours. Mediation analysis is a method for investigating the extent to which a variable…

Cognitive-Based Compassion Training: A Promising Prevention Strategy for At-Risk Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reddy, Sheethal D.; Negi, Lobsang Tenzin; Dodson-Lavelle, Brooke; Ozawa-de Silva, Brendan; Pace, Thaddeus W. W.; Cole, Steve P.; Raison, Charles L.; Craighead, Linda W.

2013-01-01

Compared to the general population, youth in foster care experience multiple psychosocial difficulties due to exceptionally high rates of maltreatment. Many youth in care receive psychological and/or psychotropic treatment but not all require or are willing to accept that level of intervention. For many, a "mental health" approach feels…

Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for example, relocating levees, improving flood warning systems, or boosting overall economic resilience). The assessment includes the locations and numbers of people at risk, as well as the locations and value of buildings, roads and railways, and crops at risk. An accompanying atlas includes easy-to-use risk maps and tables for the Ganges basins.

Management of Skin Cancer in the High-Risk Patient.

PubMed

Behan, James W; Sutton, Adam; Wysong, Ashley

2016-12-01

Skin cancer is the most common of human cancers and outnumbers all other types of cancer combined in the USA by over threefold. The majority of non-melanoma skin cancers are easily treated with surgery or locally destructive techniques performed under local anesthesia in the cost-effective outpatient setting. However, there is a subset of "high-risk" cases that prove challenging in terms of morbidity, mortality, adjuvant treatment required, as well as overall cost to the health care system. In our opinion, the term "high risk" when applied to skin cancer can mean one of three things: a high-risk tumor with aggressive histologic and/or clinical features with an elevated risk for local recurrence or regional/distant metastasis, a high-risk patient with the ongoing development of multiple skin cancers, and a high-risk patient based on immunosuppression. We have recently proposed classifying NMSC as a chronic disease in a certain subset of patients. Although no consensus definition exists for a chronic disease in medicine, there are three components that are present in most definitions: duration of at least 1 year, need for ongoing medical care, and functional impairment and/or alteration of activities of daily living (ADLs) and quality of life (QOL). Immunosuppression can refer to exogenous (organ or stem cell transplant patients,) or endogenous (HIV, leukemia, lymphoma, genodermatoses with DNA mismatch repair problems or other immunosuppression) causes. These patients are at risk for high-risk tumors and/or the development of multiple tumors.

Momentary assessment of PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in male OEF/OIF/OND Veterans.

PubMed

Black, Anne C; Cooney, Ned L; Justice, Amy C; Fiellin, Lynn E; Pietrzak, Robert H; Lazar, Christina M; Rosen, Marc I

2016-01-15

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Veterans is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors, but the nature of this association is not well understood. Typical PTSD measurement deriving a summary estimate of symptom severity over a period of time precludes inferences about symptom variability, and whether momentary changes in symptom severity predict risk behavior. We assessed the feasibility of measuring daily PTSD symptoms, substance use, and high-risk sexual behavior in Veterans using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Feasibility indicators were survey completion, PTSD symptom variability, and variability in rates of substance use and sexual risk behavior. Nine male Veterans completed web-based questionnaires by cell phone three times per day for 28 days. Median within-day survey completion rates maintained near 90%, and PTSD symptoms showed high within-person variability, ranging up to 59 points on the 80-point scale. Six Veterans reported alcohol or substance use, and substance users reported use of more than one drug. Eight Veterans reported 1 to 28 high-risk sexual events. Heightened PTSD-related negative affect and externalizing behaviors preceded high-risk sexual events. Greater PTSD symptom instability was associated with having multiple sexual partners in the 28-day period. These results are preliminary, given this small sample size, and multiple comparisons, and should be verified with larger Veteran samples. Results support the feasibility and utility of using of EMA to better understand the relationship between PTSD symptoms and sexual risk behavior in Veterans. Specific antecedent-risk behavior patterns provide promise for focused clinical interventions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Finding Groups Using Model-based Cluster Analysis: Heterogeneous Emotional Self-regulatory Processes and Heavy Alcohol Use Risk

PubMed Central

Mun, Eun-Young; von Eye, Alexander; Bates, Marsha E.; Vaschillo, Evgeny G.

2010-01-01

Model-based cluster analysis is a new clustering procedure to investigate population heterogeneity utilizing finite mixture multivariate normal densities. It is an inferentially based, statistically principled procedure that allows comparison of non-nested models using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to compare multiple models and identify the optimum number of clusters. The current study clustered 36 young men and women based on their baseline heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV), chronic alcohol use, and reasons for drinking. Two cluster groups were identified and labeled High Alcohol Risk and Normative groups. Compared to the Normative group, individuals in the High Alcohol Risk group had higher levels of alcohol use and more strongly endorsed disinhibition and suppression reasons for use. The High Alcohol Risk group showed significant HRV changes in response to positive and negative emotional and appetitive picture cues, compared to neutral cues. In contrast, the Normative group showed a significant HRV change only to negative cues. Findings suggest that the individuals with autonomic self-regulatory difficulties may be more susceptible to heavy alcohol use and use alcohol for emotional regulation. PMID:18331138

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

How does the use of multiple needles/syringes per injecting episode impact on the measurement of individual level needle and syringe program coverage?

PubMed

O'Keefe, Daniel; McCormack, Angus; Cogger, Shelley; Aitken, Campbell; Burns, Lucinda; Bruno, Raimondo; Stafford, Jenny; Butler, Kerryn; Breen, Courtney; Dietze, Paul

2017-08-01

Recent work by McCormack et al. (2016) showed that the inclusion of syringe stockpiling improves the measurement of individual-level syringe coverage. We explored whether including the use of a new parameter, multiple sterile syringes per injecting episode, further improves coverage measures. Data comes from 838 people who inject drugs, interviewed as part of the 2015 Illicit Drug Reporting System. Along with syringe coverage questions, the survey recorded the number of sterile syringes used on average per injecting episode. We constructed three measures of coverage: one adapted from Bluthenthal et al. (2007), the McCormack et al. measure, and a new coverage measure that included use of multiple syringes. Predictors of multiple syringe use and insufficient coverage (<100% of injecting episodes using a sterile syringe) using the new measure, were tested in logistic regression and the ability of the measures to discriminate key risk behaviours was compared using ROC curve analysis. 134 (16%) participants reported needing multiple syringes per injecting episode. Women showed significantly increased odds of multiple syringe use, as did those reporting injection related injuries/diseases and injecting of opioid substitution drugs or pharmaceutical opioids. Levels of insufficient coverage across the three measures were substantial (20%-28%). ROC curve analysis suggested that our new measure was no better at discriminating injecting risk behaviours than the existing measures. Based on our findings, there appears to be little need for adding a multiple syringe use parameter to existing coverage formulae. Hence, we recommend that multiple syringe use is not included in the measurement of individual-level syringe coverage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic optimization of ISR sensors using a risk-based reward function applied to ground and space surveillance scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeSena, J. T.; Martin, S. R.; Clarke, J. C.; Dutrow, D. A.; Newman, A. J.

2012-06-01

As the number and diversity of sensing assets available for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations continues to expand, the limited ability of human operators to effectively manage, control and exploit the ISR ensemble is exceeded, leading to reduced operational effectiveness. Automated support both in the processing of voluminous sensor data and sensor asset control can relieve the burden of human operators to support operation of larger ISR ensembles. In dynamic environments it is essential to react quickly to current information to avoid stale, sub-optimal plans. Our approach is to apply the principles of feedback control to ISR operations, "closing the loop" from the sensor collections through automated processing to ISR asset control. Previous work by the authors demonstrated non-myopic multiple platform trajectory control using a receding horizon controller in a closed feedback loop with a multiple hypothesis tracker applied to multi-target search and track simulation scenarios in the ground and space domains. This paper presents extensions in both size and scope of the previous work, demonstrating closed-loop control, involving both platform routing and sensor pointing, of a multisensor, multi-platform ISR ensemble tasked with providing situational awareness and performing search, track and classification of multiple moving ground targets in irregular warfare scenarios. The closed-loop ISR system is fullyrealized using distributed, asynchronous components that communicate over a network. The closed-loop ISR system has been exercised via a networked simulation test bed against a scenario in the Afghanistan theater implemented using high-fidelity terrain and imagery data. In addition, the system has been applied to space surveillance scenarios requiring tracking of space objects where current deliberative, manually intensive processes for managing sensor assets are insufficiently responsive. Simulation experiment results are presented. The algorithm to jointly optimize sensor schedules against search, track, and classify is based on recent work by Papageorgiou and Raykin on risk-based sensor management. It uses a risk-based objective function and attempts to minimize and balance the risks of misclassifying and losing track on an object. It supports the requirement to generate tasking for metric and feature data concurrently and synergistically, and account for both tracking accuracy and object characterization, jointly, in computing reward and cost for optimizing tasking decisions.

Multiple objective optimization in reliability demonstration test

DOE PAGES

Lu, Lu; Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Li, Mingyang

2016-10-01

Reliability demonstration tests are usually performed in product design or validation processes to demonstrate whether a product meets specified requirements on reliability. For binomial demonstration tests, the zero-failure test has been most commonly used due to its simplicity and use of minimum sample size to achieve an acceptable consumer’s risk level. However, this test can often result in unacceptably high risk for producers as well as a low probability of passing the test even when the product has good reliability. This paper explicitly explores the interrelationship between multiple objectives that are commonly of interest when planning a demonstration test andmore » proposes structured decision-making procedures using a Pareto front approach for selecting an optimal test plan based on simultaneously balancing multiple criteria. Different strategies are suggested for scenarios with different user priorities and graphical tools are developed to help quantify the trade-offs between choices and to facilitate informed decision making. As a result, potential impacts of some subjective user inputs on the final decision are studied to offer insights and useful guidance for general applications.« less

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Violence, abuse, alcohol and drug use, and sexual behaviors in street children of Greater Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt.

PubMed

Nada, Khaled H; Suliman, El Daw A

2010-07-01

To measure the prevalence of HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and related factors in a large, probability-based sample of boys and girls aged 12-17 years living on the streets of Egypt's largest urban centers of Greater Cairo and Alexandria. Time-location sampling (TLS) was used to recruit a cross-sectional sample of street children. Procedures entailed using key informants and field observation to create a sampling frame of locations at predetermined time intervals of the day, where street children congregate in the two cities, selecting a random sample of time-locations from the complete list, and intercepting children in the selected time-locations to assess eligibility and conduct interviews. Interviews gathered basic demographic information, life events on the street (including violence, abuse, forced sex), sexual and drug use behaviors, and HIV/AIDS knowledge. A total of 857 street children were enrolled in the two cities, with an age, sex, and time-location composition matching the sampling frame. The majority of these children had faced harassment or abuse (93%) typically by police and other street children, had used drugs (62%), and, among the older adolescents, were sexually active (67%). Among the sexually active 15-17-year-olds, most reported multiple partners (54%) and never using condoms (52%). Most girls (53% in Greater Cairo and 90% in Alexandria) had experienced sexual abuse. The majority of street children experienced more than one of these risks. Overlaps with populations at highest risk for HIV were substantial, namely men who have sex with men, commercial sex workers, and injection drug users. Our study using a randomized TLS approach produced a rigorous, diverse, probability-based sample of street children and documented very high levels of multiple concurrent risks. Our findings strongly advocate for multiple services including those addressing HIV and STI prevention and care, substance use, shelters, and sensitization of authorities to the plight of street children in Egypt.

Factors for Preterm Births in Germany - An Analysis of Representative German Data (KiGGS).

PubMed

Weichert, A; Weichert, T M; Bergmann, R L; Henrich, W; Kalache, K D; Richter, R; Neymeyer, J; Bergmann, K E

2015-08-01

Introduction: Preterm birth is a global scourge, the leading cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity. This study set out to identify the principal risk factors for preterm birth, based on the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS). A range of possible factors influencing preterm birth were selected for inclusion in the questionnaire, covering factors such as gender, national origin, immigrant background, demography, living standard, family structure, parental education and vocational training. Methods: All data were taken from the aforementioned KiGGS survey conducted between 2003 and 2006. A total of 17 641 children and adolescents (8656 girls and 8985 boys) drawn from 167 German towns and municipalities deemed to be representative of the Federal Republic of Germany were included in the study. Gestational age at birth was available for 14 234 datasets. The questionnaire included questions from the following areas as possible factors influencing preterm birth: gender, national origins, immigrant background, demography, living standard, family structure, parental education and vocational training. Results: The preterm birth rate was 11.6 %, higher than that of other national statistical evaluations. Around 57.4 % of multiple pregnancies and 10 % of singleton pregnancies resulted in preterm delivery. Multiple pregnancy was found to be the most important risk factor (OR 13.116). With regard to national origins and immigration background, mothers from Turkey, the Middle East, and North Africa had a higher incidence of preterm birth. Preterm birth was more prevalent in cities and large towns than in small towns and villages. Conclusion: Risk factors associated with preterm birth were identified. These should help with the early identification of pregnant women at risk. The preterm birth rate in our survey was higher than that found in other national statistical evaluations based on process data. More than half of all multiple pregnancies ended in preterm birth.

A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

PubMed Central

Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.; Ridao, Miguel A.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

2010-01-01

This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

Incorporating genomics into breast and prostate cancer screening: assessing the implications

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Pashayan, Nora; Hall, Alison; Lyratzopoulos, Georgios; Hallowell, Nina; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul; Burton, Hilary

2013-01-01

Individual risk prediction and stratification based on polygenic profiling may be useful in disease prevention. Risk-stratified population screening based on multiple factors including a polygenic risk profile has the potential to be more efficient than age-stratified screening. In this article, we summarize the implications of personalized screening for breast and prostate cancers. We report the opinions of multidisciplinary international experts who have explored the scientific, ethical, and logistical aspects of stratified screening. We have identified (i) the need to recognize the benefits and harms of personalized screening as compared with existing screening methods, (ii) that the use of genetic data highlights complex ethical issues including discrimination against high-risk individuals by insurers and employers and patient autonomy in relation to genetic testing of minors, (iii) the need for transparency and clear communication about risk scores, about harms and benefits, and about reasons for inclusion and exclusion from the risk-based screening process, and (iv) the need to develop new professional competences and to assess cost-effectiveness and acceptability of stratified screening programs before implementation. We conclude that health professionals and stakeholders need to consider the implications of incorporating genetic information in intervention strategies for health-care planning in the future. Genet Med 2013:15(6):423–432 PMID:23412607

Risk assessment of pesticides and other stressors in bees: Principles, data gaps and perspectives from the European Food Safety Authority.

PubMed

Rortais, Agnès; Arnold, Gérard; Dorne, Jean-Lou; More, Simon J; Sperandio, Giorgio; Streissl, Franz; Szentes, Csaba; Verdonck, Frank

2017-06-01

Current approaches to risk assessment in bees do not take into account co-exposures from multiple stressors. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is deploying resources and efforts to move towards a holistic risk assessment approach of multiple stressors in bees. This paper describes the general principles of pesticide risk assessment in bees, including recent developments at EFSA dealing with risk assessment of single and multiple pesticide residues and biological hazards. The EFSA Guidance Document on the risk assessment of plant protection products in bees highlights the need for the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, other routes of exposures and multiple stressors such as chemical mixtures and biological agents. The EFSA risk assessment on the survival, spread and establishment of the small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, an invasive alien species, is provided with potential insights for other bee pests such as the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina. Furthermore, data gaps are identified at each step of the risk assessment, and recommendations are made for future research that could be supported under the framework of Horizon 2020. Finally, the recent work conducted at EFSA is presented, under the overarching MUST-B project ("EU efforts towards the development of a holistic approach for the risk assessment on MUltiple STressors in Bees") comprising a toolbox for harmonised data collection under field conditions and a mechanistic model to assess effects from pesticides and other stressors such as biological agents and beekeeping management practices, at the colony level and in a spatially complex landscape. Future perspectives at EFSA include the development of a data model to collate high quality data to calibrate and validate the model to be used as a regulatory tool. Finally, the evidence collected within the framework of MUST-B will support EFSA's activities on the development of a holistic approach to the risk assessment of multiple stressors in bees. In conclusion, EFSA calls for collaborative action at the EU level to establish a common and open access database to serve multiple purposes and different stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Definition of Type II Endoleak Risk Based on Preoperative Anatomical Characteristics.

PubMed

Piazza, Michele; Squizzato, Francesco; Miccoli, Tommaso; Lepidi, Sandro; Menegolo, Mirko; Grego, Franco; Antonello, Michele

2017-08-01

To define the risk for type II endoleak (EII) after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) based on preoperative anatomical characteristics. Between January 2008 and December 2015, 189 patients (mean age 78.4±7.6 years; 165 men) underwent standard EVAR. Mean aneurysm diameter was 5.7±0.7 cm and mean volume 125.2±45.8 cm 3 . Patients were assigned to the "at-risk" group (n=123, 65%) when at least one of the following criteria was present: patency of a >3-mm inferior mesenteric artery (IMA), patency of at least 3 pairs of lumbar arteries, or patency of 2 pairs of lumbar arteries and a sacral artery or accessory renal artery or any diameter patent IMA; otherwise, patients were entered in the "low-risk" group (n=66, 35%). EII rates and freedom from EII reintervention were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves. Preoperative clinical and anatomical characteristics were evaluated for their association with EII and EII reinterventions using multiple logistic regression analysis; results are presented as the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Freedom from endoleak was lower in the at-risk group compared with the low-risk group at 36 months after EVAR (p=0.04). Freedom from EII-related reinterventions was significantly lower in the at-risk group (80% vs 100%, p=0.001) at 48 months. Based on the multiple regression analysis, the at-risk group had a higher likelihood of both EII (OR 9.91, 95% CI 2.92 to 33.72, p<0.001) and EII-related reinterventions (OR 9.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 78.44, p=0.04). These criteria had 89.4% (95% CI 83.9% to 93.2%) sensitivity and 48.0% (95% CI 40.7% to 55.3%) specificity for EII; sensitivity and specificity for EII reintervention were 100% (95% CI 93.8% to 100%) and 38.8% (95% CI 31.9% to 46.2%). Within the at-risk group, a sac thrombus volume <35% was an additional predictor for both EII (OR 5.21, 95% CI 1.75 to 15.47, p=0.003) and EII-related reinterventions (OR 8.33, 95% CI 2.20 to 31.51, p<0.002). The selection criteria effectively discriminated between low-risk patients and patients at risk for EII and associated reinterventions. A thrombus volume <35% was an additional predictor for EII and EII-related reintervention among patients at risk. These criteria may be useful for preemptively selecting patients who may benefit from EII prevention procedures or a more aggressive surveillance protocol.

Learning in the workplace: Fostering resilience in disengaged youth.

PubMed

Deluca, Christopher; Hutchinson, Nancy L; Delugt, Jennifer S; Beyer, Wanda; Thornton, Antoinette; Versnel, Joan; Chin, Peter; Munby, Hugh

2010-01-01

International reports on school-to-work transition make it clear that worldwide youth are at-risk for educational disengagement and are three times as likely to be unemployed as their adult counterparts. Work-based education (WBE) is one of the most frequently recommended solutions for youth disengagement which suggests that WBE serves as a protective factor and encourages resilience in at-risk youth. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the experiences of two at-risk youth enrolled in WBE. Two 18-year old at-risk youth enrolled in WBE were chosen for study because they were learning in workplaces judged likely to promote resilience. Both had been disengaged from school prior to enrolling in WBE. Each multiple-perspective case study includes the perspective of the youth, the workplace employer, and the work-based educator. Data consisted of ethnographic observations and interviews conducted at the workplace, and with the teacher in the school. Each case study highlights how supportive adults and an at-risk youth engage in interactions that facilitate the emergence of resilience in the workplace. In these two cases, risk and resilience are context specific, suggesting that at-risk youth may require tailored workplace programs to meet their career development needs.

Improving the evidence base for services working with youth at-risk of involvement in the criminal justice system: developing a standardised program approach.

PubMed

Knight, Alice; Maple, Myfanwy; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Shakehsaft, Bernie; Pearce, Tania

2018-04-16

Young people who engage in multiple risk behaviour (high-risk young people) such as substance abuse, antisocial behaviour, low engagement in education and employment, self-harm or suicide ideation are more likely to experience serious harms later in life including homelessness, incarceration, violence and premature death. In addition to personal disadvantage, these harms represent an avoidable social and economic cost to society. Despite these harms, there is insufficient evidence about how to improve outcomes for high-risk young people. A key reason for this is a lack of standardisation in the way in which programs provided by services are defined and evaluated. This paper describes the development of a standardised intervention model for high-risk young people. The model can be used by service providers to achieve greater standardisation across their programs, outcomes and outcome measures. To demonstrate its feasibility, the model is applied to an existing program for high-risk young people. The development and uptake of a standardised intervention model for these programs will help to more rapidly develop a larger and more rigorous evidence-base to improve outcomes for high-risk young people.

A dimensional approach to understanding severity estimates and risk correlates of marijuana abuse and dependence in adults

PubMed Central

WU, LI-TZY; WOODY, GEORGE E.; YANG, CHONGMING; PAN, JENG-JONG; REEVE, BRYCE B.; BLAZER, DAN G.

2012-01-01

While item response theory (IRT) research shows a latent severity trait underlying response patterns of substance abuse and dependence symptoms, little is known about IRT-based severity estimates in relation to clinically relevant measures. In response to increased prevalences of marijuana-related treatment admissions, an elevated level of marijuana potency, and the debate on medical marijuana use, we applied dimensional approaches to understand IRT-based severity estimates for marijuana use disorders (MUDs) and their correlates while simultaneously considering gender- and race/ethnicity-related differential item functioning (DIF). Using adult data from the 2008 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (N=37,897), DSM-IV criteria for MUDs among past-year marijuana users were examined by IRT, logistic regression, and multiple indicators–multiple causes (MIMIC) approaches. Among 6,917 marijuana users, 15% met criteria for a MUD; another 24% exhibited subthreshold dependence. Abuse criteria were highly correlated with dependence criteria (correlation=0.90), indicating unidimensionality; item information curves revealed redundancy in multiple criteria. MIMIC analyses showed that MUD criteria were positively associated with weekly marijuana use, early marijuana use, other substance use disorders, substance abuse treatment, and serious psychological distress. African Americans and Hispanics showed higher levels of MUDs than whites, even after adjusting for race/ethnicity-related DIF. The redundancy in multiple criteria suggests an opportunity to improve efficiency in measuring symptom-level manifestations by removing low-informative criteria. Elevated rates of MUDs among African Americans and Hispanics require research to elucidate risk factors and improve assessments of MUDs for different racial/ethnic groups. PMID:22351489

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Severe complication of posterior nasal packing: Case Report.

PubMed

Pinto, José Antônio; Cintra, Pedro Paulo Vivacqua da Cunha; Sônego, Thiago Branco; Leal, Carolina de Farias Aires; Artico, Marina Spadari; Soares, Josemar Dos Santos

2012-10-01

 Severe Epistaxis is common in patients with head trauma, especially when associated with multiple fractures of the face and skull base. Several methods of controlling bleeding that can be imposed. The anterior nasal tapenade associated with posterior Foley catheter is one of the most widespread, and the universal availability of necessary materials or their apparent ease of execution.  Case report on control of severe epistaxis after severe TBI, with posterior nasal packing by Foley catheter and control tomography showing multiple fractures of the skull base and penetration of the probe into the brain parenchyma.  This is a rare but possible complication in the treatment of severe nose bleeds associated with fracture of the skull base. This brief report highlights risks related to the method and suggests some care to prevent complications related through a brief literature review.

Presenting evidence and summary measures to best inform societal decisions when comparing multiple strategies.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Willan, Andrew R

2011-07-01

Multiple strategy comparisons in health technology assessment (HTA) are becoming increasingly important, with multiple alternative therapeutic actions, combinations of therapies and diagnostic and genetic testing alternatives. Comparison under uncertainty of incremental cost, effects and cost effectiveness across more than two strategies is conceptually and practically very different from that for two strategies, where all evidence can be summarized in a single bivariate distribution on the incremental cost-effectiveness plane. Alternative methods for comparing multiple strategies in HTA have been developed in (i) presenting cost and effects on the cost-disutility plane and (ii) summarizing evidence with multiple strategy cost-effectiveness acceptability (CEA) and expected net loss (ENL) curves and frontiers. However, critical questions remain for the analyst and decision maker of how these techniques can be best employed across multiple strategies to (i) inform clinical and cost inference in presenting evidence, and (ii) summarize evidence of cost effectiveness to inform societal reimbursement decisions where preferences may be risk neutral or somewhat risk averse under the Arrow-Lind theorem. We critically consider how evidence across multiple strategies can be best presented and summarized to inform inference and societal reimbursement decisions, given currently available methods. In the process, we make a number of important original findings. First, in presenting evidence for multiple strategies, the joint distribution of costs and effects on the cost-disutility plane with associated flexible comparators varying across replicates for cost and effect axes ensure full cost and effect inference. Such inference is usually confounded on the cost-effectiveness plane with comparison relative to a fixed origin and axes. Second, in summarizing evidence for risk-neutral societal decision making, ENL curves and frontiers are shown to have advantages over the CEA frontier in directly presenting differences in expected net benefit (ENB). The CEA frontier, while identifying strategies that maximize ENB, only presents their probability of maximizing net benefit (NB) and, hence, fails to explain why strategies maximize ENB at any given threshold value. Third, in summarizing evidence for somewhat risk-averse societal decision making, trade-offs between the strategy maximizing ENB and other potentially optimal strategies with higher probability of maximizing NB should be presented over discrete threshold values where they arise. However, the probabilities informing these trade-offs and associated discrete threshold value regions should be derived from bilateral CEA curves to prevent confounding by other strategies inherent in multiple strategy CEA curves. Based on these findings, a series of recommendations are made for best presenting and summarizing cost-effectiveness evidence for reimbursement decisions when comparing multiple strategies, which are contrasted with advice for comparing two strategies. Implications for joint research and reimbursement decisions are also discussed.

Prediction of individual probabilities of livebirth and multiple birth events following in vitro fertilization (IVF): a new outcomes counselling tool for IVF providers and patients using HFEA metrics

PubMed Central

Jones, Christopher A.; Christensen, Anna L.; Salihu, Hamisu; Carpenter, William; Petrozzino, Jeffrey; Abrams, Elizabeth; Sills, Eric Scott; Keith, Louis G.

2011-01-01

In vitro fertilization (IVF) has become a standard treatment for subfertility after it was demonstrated to be of value to humans in 1978. However, the introduction of IVF into mainstream clinical practice has been accompanied by concerns regarding the number of multiple gestations that it can produce, as multiple births present significant medical consequences to mothers and offspring. When considering IVF as a treatment modality, a balance must be set between the chance of having a live birth and the risk of having a multiple birth. As IVF is often a costly decision for patients—financially, medically, and emotionally—there is benefit from estimating a patient’s specific chance that IVF could result in a birth as fertility treatment options are contemplated. Historically, a patient’s “chance of success” with IVF has been approximated from institution-based statistics, rather than on the basis of any particular clinical parameter (except age). Furthermore, the likelihood of IVF resulting in a twin or triplet outcome must be acknowledged for each patient, given the known increased complications of multiple gestation and consequent increased risk of poor birth outcomes. In this research, we describe a multivariate risk assessment model that incorporates metrics adapted from a national 7.5-year sampling of the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority (HFEA) dataset (1991–1998) to predict reproductive outcome (including estimation of multiple birth) after IVF. To our knowledge, http://www.formyodds.com is the first Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) application to predict IVF outcome. The approach also includes a confirmation functionality, where clinicians can agree or disagree with the computer-generated outcome predictions. It is anticipated that the emergence of predictive tools will augment the reproductive endocrinology consultation, improve the medical informed consent process by tailoring the outcome assessment to each patient, and reduce the potential for adverse outcomes with IVF. PMID:21991292

Prediction of individual probabilities of livebirth and multiple birth events following in vitro fertilization (IVF): a new outcomes counselling tool for IVF providers and patients using HFEA metrics.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher A; Christensen, Anna L; Salihu, Hamisu; Carpenter, William; Petrozzino, Jeffrey; Abrams, Elizabeth; Sills, Eric Scott; Keith, Louis G

2011-01-01

In vitro fertilization (IVF) has become a standard treatment for subfertility after it was demonstrated to be of value to humans in 1978. However, the introduction of IVF into mainstream clinical practice has been accompanied by concerns regarding the number of multiple gestations that it can produce, as multiple births present significant medical consequences to mothers and offspring. When considering IVF as a treatment modality, a balance must be set between the chance of having a live birth and the risk of having a multiple birth. As IVF is often a costly decision for patients-financially, medically, and emotionally-there is benefit from estimating a patient's specific chance that IVF could result in a birth as fertility treatment options are contemplated. Historically, a patient's "chance of success" with IVF has been approximated from institution-based statistics, rather than on the basis of any particular clinical parameter (except age). Furthermore, the likelihood of IVF resulting in a twin or triplet outcome must be acknowledged for each patient, given the known increased complications of multiple gestation and consequent increased risk of poor birth outcomes. In this research, we describe a multivariate risk assessment model that incorporates metrics adapted from a national 7.5-year sampling of the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority (HFEA) dataset (1991-1998) to predict reproductive outcome (including estimation of multiple birth) after IVF. To our knowledge, http://www.formyodds.com is the first Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) application to predict IVF outcome. The approach also includes a confirmation functionality, where clinicians can agree or disagree with the computer-generated outcome predictions. It is anticipated that the emergence of predictive tools will augment the reproductive endocrinology consultation, improve the medical informed consent process by tailoring the outcome assessment to each patient, and reduce the potential for adverse outcomes with IVF.

Families at risk of poor parenting: a model for service delivery, assessment, and intervention.

PubMed

Ayoub, C; Jacewitz, M M

1982-01-01

The At Risk Parent Child Program is a multidisciplinary network agency designed for the secondary prevention of poor parenting and the extremes of child abuse and neglect. This model system of service delivery emphasizes (1) the coordination of existing community resources to access a target population of families at risk of parenting problems, (2) the provision of multiple special services in a neutral location (ambulatory pediatric clinic), and (3) the importance of intensive individual contact with a clinical professional who serves as primary therapist, social advocate and service coordinator for client families. Identification and assessment of families is best done during prenatal and perinatal periods. Both formal and informal procedures for screening for risk factors are described, and a simple set of at risk criteria for use by hospital nursing staff is provided. Preventive intervention strategies include special medical, psychological, social and developmental services, offered in an inpatient; outpatient, or in-home setting. Matching family needs to modality and setting of treatment is a major program concern. All direct services to at risk families are supplied by professionals employed within existing local agencies (hospital, public health department, state guidance center, and medical school pediatric clinic). Multiple agency involvement allows a broad-based screening capacity which allows thousands of families routine access to program services. The administrative center of the network stands as an independent, community-funded core which coordinates and monitors direct clinical services, and provides local political advocacy for families at risk of parenting problems.

HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female transgender people in Nepal.

PubMed

Bhatta, Dharma Nand

2014-05-01

Transgender women are a vulnerable and key risk group for HIV, and most research has shown an increased frequency of HIV infection among this minority population. This study examined the prevalence of HIV-related sexual risk behaviors and the socio-demographic correlates with HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among male-to-female (MtF) transgender persons. Data were collected from a sample of 232 individuals through venue-based and snowball sampling and face-to-face interviews. The HIV-related sexual risk behaviors among the MtF transgender persons were: sex without using a condom (48.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 41.8-54.8), unprotected anal sex (68.1%; 95% CI 62.0-74.2), and unprotected sex with multiple partners (88.4%; 95% CI 84.3-92.5). Statistically significant differences were found for age, income, education, alcohol habit, and sex with more than two partners per day for these three different HIV-related sexual risk behaviors. MtF transgender persons with a secondary or higher level of education were three times (OR 2.93) more likely to have unprotected sex with multiple partners compared to those with a primary level or no education. Age, education, income, frequency of daily sexual contact, and an alcohol habit remain significant with regard to HIV-related sexual risk behavior. There is an urgent need for programs and interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviors in this minority population. Copyright © 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Inhalation Anthrax: Dose Response and Risk Analysis

PubMed Central

Thran, Brandolyn; Morse, Stephen S.; Hugh-Jones, Martin; Massulik, Stacey

2008-01-01

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces—essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities. PMID:18582166

Risk of treatment-related esophageal cancer among breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Morton, L M; Gilbert, E S; Hall, P; Andersson, M; Joensuu, H; Vaalavirta, L; Dores, G M; Stovall, M; Holowaty, E J; Lynch, C F; Curtis, R E; Smith, S A; Kleinerman, R A; Kaijser, M; Storm, H H; Pukkala, E; Weathers, R E; Linet, M S; Rajaraman, P; Fraumeni, J F; Brown, L M; van Leeuwen, F E; Fossa, S D; Johannesen, T B; Langmark, F; Lamart, S; Travis, L B; Aleman, B M P

2012-12-01

Radiotherapy for breast cancer may expose the esophagus to ionizing radiation, but no study has evaluated esophageal cancer risk after breast cancer associated with radiation dose or systemic therapy use. Nested case-control study of esophageal cancer among 289 748 ≥5-year survivors of female breast cancer from five population-based cancer registries (252 cases, 488 individually matched controls), with individualized radiation dosimetry and information abstracted from medical records. The largest contributors to esophageal radiation exposure were supraclavicular and internal mammary chain treatments. Esophageal cancer risk increased with increasing radiation dose to the esophageal tumor location (P(trend )< 0.001), with doses of ≥35 Gy associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 8.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-28]. Patients with hormonal therapy ≤5 years preceding esophageal cancer diagnosis had lower risk (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8). Based on few cases, alkylating agent chemotherapy did not appear to affect risk. Our data were consistent with a multiplicative effect of radiation and other esophageal cancer risk factors (e.g. smoking). Esophageal cancer is a radiation dose-related complication of radiotherapy for breast cancer, but absolute risk is low. At higher esophageal doses, the risk warrants consideration in radiotherapy risk assessment and long-term follow-up.

High doses of folic acid in the periconceptional period and risk of low weight for gestational age at birth in a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Navarrete-Muñoz, Eva María; Valera-Gran, Desirée; Garcia-de-la-Hera, Manuela; Gonzalez-Palacios, Sandra; Riaño, Isolina; Murcia, Mario; Lertxundi, Aitana; Guxens, Mònica; Tardón, Adonina; Amiano, Pilar; Vrijheid, Martine; Rebagliato, Marisa; Vioque, Jesus

2017-11-27

We investigated the association between maternal use of folic acid (FA) during pregnancy and child anthropometric measures at birth. We included 2302 mother-child pairs from a population-based birth cohort in Spain (INMA Project). FA dosages at first and third trimester of pregnancy were assessed using a specific battery questionnaire and were categorized in non-user, < 1000, 1000-4999, and ≥ 5000 µg/day. Anthropometric measures at birth (weight in grams, length and head circumference in centimetres) were obtained from medical records. Small for gestational age according to weight (SGA-w), length (SGA-l) and head circumference (SGA-hc) were defined using the 10th percentile based on Spanish standardized growth reference charts. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were used to explore the association between FA dosages in different stages of pregnancy and child anthropometric measures at birth. In the multiple linear regression analysis, we found a tendency for a negative association between the use of high dosages of FA (≥ 5000 µg/day) in the periconceptional period of pregnancy and weight at birth compared to mothers who were non-users of FA (β = - 73.83; 95% CI - 151.71, 4.06). In the multiple logistic regression, a greater risk of SGA-w was also evident among children whose mothers took FA dosages of 1000-4999 (OR = 2.21; 95% CI 1.17, 4.19) and of ≥ 5000 µg/day (OR = 2.32; 95% CI 1.06, 5.08) compared to mothers non-users of FA in the periconceptional period of pregnancy. Our findings suggest that a high dosage of FA (≥ 1000 µg/day) may be associated with an increased risk of SGA-w at birth.

Elevated hardness of peripheral gland on real-time elastography is an independent marker for high-risk prostate cancers.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Yao, Jing; Cai, Yehua; Zhang, Limin; Wu, Yishuo; Xiong, Jingyu; Shi, Jun; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Yi

2017-12-01

To examine the role of quantitative real-time elastography (RTE) features on differentiation between high-risk prostate cancer (PCA) and non-high-risk prostatic diseases in the initial transperineal biopsy setting. We retrospectively included 103 patients with suspicious PCA who underwent both RTE and initial transperineal prostate biopsy. Patients were grouped into high-risk and non-high-risk categories according to the D'Amico's risk stratification. With computer assistance based on MATLAB programming, three features were extracted from RTE, i.e., the median hardness within peripheral gland (PG) (H med ), the ratio of the median hardness within PG to that outside PG (H ratio ), and the ratio of the hard area within PG to the total PG area (H ar ). A multiple regression model incorporating an RTE feature, age, transrectal ultrasound finding, and prostate volume was used to identify markers for high-risk PCA. Forty-seven patients (45.6%) were diagnosed with PCA and 34 (33.0%) were diagnosed with high-risk PCA. Three RTE features were all statistically higher in high-risk PCA than in non-high-risk diseases (p < 0.001), indicating that the PGs in high-risk PCA patients were harder than those in non-high-risk patients. A high H ratio , high age, and low prostate volume were found to be independent markers for PCAs (p < 0.05), among which the high H ratio was the only independent marker for high-risk PCAs (p = 0.012). When predicting high-risk PCAs, the multiple regression achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.755, sensitivity of 73.5%, and specificity of 71.0%. The elevated hardness of PG identified high-risk PCA and served as an independent marker of high-risk PCA. As a non-invasive imaging modality, the RTE could be potentially used in routine clinical practice for the detection of high-risk PCA to decrease unnecessary biopsies and reduce overtreatment.

Recurrent transient ischaemic attack and early risk of stroke: data from the PROMAPA study.

PubMed

Purroy, Francisco; Jiménez Caballero, Pedro Enrique; Gorospe, Arantza; Torres, María José; Alvarez-Sabin, José; Santamarina, Estevo; Martínez-Sánchez, Patricia; Cánovas, David; Freijo, María José; Egido, Jose Antonio; Ramírez-Moreno, Jose M; Alonso-Arias, Arantza; Rodríguez-Campello, Ana; Casado, Ignacio; Delgado-Mederos, Raquel; Martí-Fàbregas, Joan; Fuentes, Blanca; Silva, Yolanda; Quesada, Helena; Cardona, Pere; Morales, Ana; de la Ossa, Natalia Pérez; García-Pastor, Antonio; Arenillas, Juan F; Segura, Tomas; Jiménez, Carmen; Masjuán, Jaime

2013-06-01

Many guidelines recommend urgent intervention for patients with two or more transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) within 7 days (multiple TIAs) to reduce the early risk of stroke. To determine whether all patients with multiple TIAs have the same high early risk of stroke. Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1255 consecutive patients with a TIA from 30 Spanish stroke centres (PROMAPA study). We prospectively recorded clinical characteristics. We also determined the short-term risk of stroke (at 7 and 90 days). Aetiology was categorised using the TOAST (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) classification. Clinical variables and extracranial vascular imaging were available and assessed in 1137/1255 (90.6%) patients. 7-Day and 90-day stroke risk were 2.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was confirmed in 190 (16.7%) patients. Multiple TIAs were seen in 274 (24.1%) patients. Duration <1 h (OR=2.97, 95% CI 2.20 to 4.01, p<0.001), LAA (OR=1.92, 95% CI 1.35 to 2.72, p<0.001) and motor weakness (OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.81, p=0.031) were independent predictors of multiple TIAs. The subsequent risk of stroke in these patients at 7 and 90 days was significantly higher than the risk after a single TIA (5.9% vs 1.5%, p<0.001 and 6.8% vs 3.0%, respectively). In the logistic regression model, among patients with multiple TIAs, no variables remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence. According to our results, multiple TIAs within 7 days are associated with a greater subsequent risk of stroke than after a single TIA. Nevertheless, we found no independent predictor of stroke recurrence among these patients.