Modeling seasonal variation of hip fracture in Montreal, Canada.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2012-04-01

The investigation of the association of the climate variables with hip fracture incidences is important in social health issues. This study examined and modeled the seasonal variation of monthly population based hip fracture rate (HFr) time series. The seasonal ARIMA time series modeling approach is used to model monthly HFr incidences time series of female and male patients of the ages 40-74 and 75+ of Montreal, Québec province, Canada, in the period of 1993-2004. The correlation coefficients between meteorological variables such as temperature, snow depth, rainfall depth and day length and HFr are significant. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for trend assessment and the nonparametric Levene's test and Wilcoxon's test for checking the difference of HFr before and after change point are also used. The seasonality in HFr indicated sharp difference between winter and summer time. The trend assessment showed decreasing trends in HFr of female and male groups. The nonparametric test also indicated a significant change of the mean HFr. A seasonal ARIMA model was applied for HFr time series without trend and a time trend ARIMA model (TT-ARIMA) was developed and fitted to HFr time series with a significant trend. The multi criteria evaluation showed the adequacy of SARIMA and TT-ARIMA models for modeling seasonal hip fracture time series with and without significant trend. In the time series analysis of HFr of the Montreal region, the effects of the seasonal variation of climate variables on hip fracture are clear. The Seasonal ARIMA model is useful for modeling HFr time series without trend. However, for time series with significant trend, the TT-ARIMA model should be applied for modeling HFr time series. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010.

PubMed

Iranfar, Khosro; Mokhayeri, Yaser; Mohammadi, Gohar

2016-01-01

There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.

Quantifying trends in disease impact to produce a consistent and reproducible definition of an emerging infectious disease.

PubMed

Funk, Sebastian; Bogich, Tiffany L; Jones, Kate E; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Daszak, Peter

2013-01-01

The proper allocation of public health resources for research and control requires quantification of both a disease's current burden and the trend in its impact. Infectious diseases that have been labeled as "emerging infectious diseases" (EIDs) have received heightened scientific and public attention and resources. However, the label 'emerging' is rarely backed by quantitative analysis and is often used subjectively. This can lead to over-allocation of resources to diseases that are incorrectly labelled "emerging," and insufficient allocation of resources to diseases for which evidence of an increasing or high sustained impact is strong. We suggest a simple quantitative approach, segmented regression, to characterize the trends and emergence of diseases. Segmented regression identifies one or more trends in a time series and determines the most statistically parsimonious split(s) (or joinpoints) in the time series. These joinpoints in the time series indicate time points when a change in trend occurred and may identify periods in which drivers of disease impact change. We illustrate the method by analyzing temporal patterns in incidence data for twelve diseases. This approach provides a way to classify a disease as currently emerging, re-emerging, receding, or stable based on temporal trends, as well as to pinpoint the time when the change in these trends happened. We argue that quantitative approaches to defining emergence based on the trend in impact of a disease can, with appropriate context, be used to prioritize resources for research and control. Implementing this more rigorous definition of an EID will require buy-in and enforcement from scientists, policy makers, peer reviewers and journal editors, but has the potential to improve resource allocation for global health.

Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

PubMed

Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

2014-03-27

HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P < 0.01). Trends in background rates were notable for liver (APC 5.6%) and lung (-3.2%) cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

Analysis of Zenith Tropospheric Delay above Europe based on long time series derived from the EPN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina; Kroszczynski, Krzysztof; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej

2015-04-01

In recent years, the GNSS system began to play an increasingly important role in the research related to the climate monitoring. Based on the GPS system, which has the longest operational capability in comparison with other systems, and a common computational strategy applied to all observations, long and homogeneous ZTD (Zenith Tropospheric Delay) time series were derived. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year ZTD time series obtained from the EPN (EUREF Permanent Network) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. To maintain the uniformity of data, analyzed period of time (1998-2013) is exactly the same for all stations - observations carried out before 1998 were removed from time series and observations processed using different strategy were recalculated according to the MUT LAC approach. For all 16-year time series (59 stations) Lomb-Scargle periodograms were created to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Due to strong annual oscillations which disturb the character of oscillations with smaller amplitude and thus hinder their investigation, Lomb-Scargle periodograms for time series with the deleted annual oscillations were created in order to verify presence of semi-annual, ter-annual and quarto-annual oscillations. Linear trend and seasonal components were estimated using LSE (Least Square Estimation) and Mann-Kendall trend test were used to confirm the presence of linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the effect of the length of time series on the estimated size of the linear trend, comparison between two different length of ZTD time series was performed. To carry out a comparative analysis, 30 stations which have been operating since 1996 were selected. For these stations two periods of time were analyzed: shortened 16-year (1998-2013) and full 18-year (1996-2013). For some stations an additional two years of observations have significant impact on changing the size of linear trend - only for 4 stations the size of linear trend was exactly the same for two periods of time. In one case, the nature of the trend has changed from negative (16-year time series) for positive (18-year time series). The average value of a linear trends for 16-year time series is 1,5 mm/decade, but their spatial distribution is not uniform. The average value of linear trends for all 18-year time series is 2,0 mm/decade, with better spatial distribution and smaller discrepancies.

An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

2014-01-01

This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

PubMed

Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P value

Comparison and covalidation of ozone anomalies and variability observed in SBUV(/2) and Umkehr northern midlatitude ozone profile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I.; Ahn, Changwoo; Bhartia, P. K.; Flynn, L. E.

2005-03-01

This analysis presents comparisons of upper-stratosphere ozone information observed by two independent systems: the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV and SBUV/2) satellite instruments, and ground-based Dobson spectrophotometers. Both the new SBUV Version 8 and the new UMK04 profile retrieval algorithms are optimized for studying long-term variability and trends in ozone. Trend analyses of the ozone time series from the SBUV(/2) data set are complex because of the multiple instruments involved, changes in the instruments' geo-location, and short periods of overlaps for inter-calibrations among different instruments. Three northern middle latitudes Dobson ground stations (Arosa, Boulder, and Tateno) are used in this analysis to validate the trend quality of the combined 25-year SBUV/2 time series, 1979 to 2003. Generally, differences between the satellite and ground-based data do not suggest any significant time-dependent shifts or trends. The shared features confirm the value of these data sets for studies of ozone variability.

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

PubMed

Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-09-01

Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

Detecting Land Cover Change by Trend and Seasonality of Remote Sensing Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, J. C.; Epiphanio, J. N.; Mello, M. P.

2013-05-01

Natural resource managers demand knowledge of information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change, and detection and characteristics change over time is an initial step for the understanding of the mechanism of change. The propose of this research is the use the approach BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) for detects trend and seasonal changes within Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. BFAST integrates the decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components with methods for detecting change within time series without the need to select a reference period, set a threshold, or define a change trajectory. BFAST iteratively estimates the time and number of changes, and characterizes change by its magnitude and direction. The general model is of the form Yt = Tt + St + et (t= 1,2,3,…, n) where Yt is the observed data at time t, Tt is the trend component, St is the seasonal component, and et is the remainder component. In this study was used MODIS NDVI time series datasets (MOD13Q1) over 11 years (2000 - 2010) on an intensive agricultural area in Mato Grosso - Brazil. At first it was applied a filter for noise reduction (4253H twice) over spectral curve of each MODIS pixel, and subsequently each time series was decomposed into seasonal, trend, and remainder components by BFAST. Were detected one abrupt change from a single pixel of forest and two abrupt changes on trend component to a pixel of the agricultural area. Figure 1 shows the number of phonological change with base in seasonal component for study area. This paper demonstrated the ability of the BFAST to detect long-term phenological change by analyzing time series while accounting for abrupt and gradual changes. The algorithm iteratively estimates the dates and number of changes occurring within seasonal and trend components, and characterizes changes by extracting the magnitude and direction of change. Changes occurring in the seasonal component indicate phenological changes, while changes occurring in the trend component indicate gradual and abrupt change. BFAST can be used to analyze different types of remotely sensed time series and can be applied to other time series such as econometrics, climatology, and hydrology. The algorithm used in this study is available in BFAT package for R from CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/package=bfast).; Figure 1 - Number of the phonological change with base in seasonal component.

Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

PubMed

Pfaller, Joseph B; Bjorndal, Karen A; Chaloupka, Milani; Williams, Kristina L; Frick, Michael G; Bolten, Alan B

2013-01-01

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.

Decadal variations in atmospheric water vapor time series estimated using GNSS, ERA-Interim, and synoptic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens

2017-04-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) have efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research although they may not be sufficiently long. In this work, we compare the trend estimated from GNSS time series with that estimated from European Center for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements.We aim at evaluating climate evolution in Central Europe by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: 1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, 2) inferred from ERA-Interim data, and 3) determined based on daily surface measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other variables are available from surface meteorological stations or received from ERA-Interim. The PWV trend component estimated from GNSS data strongly correlates (>70%) with that estimated from the other data sets. The linear trend is estimated by straight line fitting over 30 years of seasonally-adjusted PWV time series obtained using the meteorological measurements. The results show a positive trend in the PWV time series with an increase of 0.2-0.7 mm/decade with a mean standard deviations of 0.016 mm/decade. In this paper, we present the results at three GNSS stations. The temporal increment of the PWV correlates with the temporal increase in the temperature levels.

Recent shifts in Himalayan vegetation activity trends in response to climatic change and environmental drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, N. B.; Mainali, K. P.

2016-12-01

Climatic changes along with anthropogenic disturbances are causing dramatic ecological impacts in mid to high latitude mountain vegetation including in the Himalayas which are ecologically sensitive environments. Given the challenges associated with in situ vegetation monitoring in the Himalayas, remote sensing based quantification of vegetation dynamics can provide essential ecological information on changes in vegetation activity that may consist of alternative sequence of greening and/or browning periods. This study utilized a trend break analysis procedure for detection of monotonic as well as abrupt (either interruption or reversal) trend changes in smoothed normalized difference vegetation index satellite time-series data over the Himalayas. Overall, trend breaks in vegetation greenness showed high spatio-temporal variability in distribution considering elevation, ecoregion and land cover/use stratifications. Interrupted greening was spatially most dominant in all Himalayan ecoregions followed by abrupt browning. Areas showing trend reversal and monotonic trends appeared minority. Trend type distribution was strongly dependent on elevation as majority of greening (with or without interruption) occurred at lower elevation areas at higher elevation were dominantly. Ecoregion based stratification of trend types highlighted some exception to this elevational dependence as high altitude ecoregions of western Himalayas showed significantly less browning compared to the ecoregions in eastern Himalaya. Land cover/use based analysis of trend distribution showed that interrupted greening was most dominant in closed needleleafed forest following by rainfed cropland and mosaic croplands while interrupted browning most dominant in closed to open herbaceous vegetation found at higher elevation areas followed by closed needleleafed forest and closed to open broad leafed evergreen forests. Spatial analysis of trend break timing showed that for majority of areas experiencing interrupted greening, break in trend occurred later compared to areas with interrupted browning where break trend was observed much earlier. These results have significant implications for environmental management in the context of climate change and ecosystem dynamics in the Himalayas.

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis

PubMed Central

Patthi, Basavaraj; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-01-01

Introduction Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. Aim To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends© (GT©). Materials and Methods GT© were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. Results The search volume measured over the time span noted the term “Dental caries” to be the most searched in Japan, “Gingivitis” in Jordan, “Oral Cancer” in Taiwan, “No Teeth” in Australia, “HIV symptoms” in Zimbabwe, “Broken Teeth” in United Kingdom, “Cleft palate” in Philippines, “Toothache” in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the “Gingivitis” with highest search volume. Conclusion The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques. PMID:29207825

Long-term stormwater quantity and quality analysis using continuous measurements in a French urban catchment.

PubMed

Sun, Siao; Barraud, Sylvie; Castebrunet, Hélène; Aubin, Jean-Baptiste; Marmonier, Pierre

2015-11-15

The assessment of urban stormwater quantity and quality is important for evaluating and controlling the impact of the stormwater to natural water and environment. This study mainly addresses long-term evolution of stormwater quantity and quality in a French urban catchment using continuous measured data from 2004 to 2011. Storm event-based data series are obtained (716 rainfall events and 521 runoff events are available) from measured continuous time series. The Mann-Kendall test is applied to these event-based data series for trend detection. A lack of trend is found in rainfall and an increasing trend in runoff is detected. As a result, an increasing trend is present in the runoff coefficient, likely due to growing imperviousness of the catchment caused by urbanization. The event mean concentration of the total suspended solid (TSS) in stormwater does not present a trend, whereas the event load of TSS has an increasing tendency, which is attributed to the increasing event runoff volume. Uncertainty analysis suggests that the major uncertainty in trend detection results lies in uncertainty due to available data. A lack of events due to missing data leads to dramatically increased uncertainty in trend detection results. In contrast, measurement uncertainty in time series data plays a trivial role. The intra-event distribution of TSS is studied based on both M(V) curves and pollutant concentrations of absolute runoff volumes. The trend detection test reveals no significant change in intra-event distributions of TSS in the studied catchment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing spatiotemporal changes in forest carbon turnover times in observational data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K.; Smith, W. K.; Trugman, A. T.; van Mantgem, P.; Peng, C.; Condit, R.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Forests influence global carbon and water cycles, biophysical land-atmosphere feedbacks, and atmospheric composition. The capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 in a changing climate depends not only on the response of carbon uptake (i.e., gross primary productivity) but also on the simultaneous change in carbon residence time. However, changes in carbon residence with climate change are uncertain, impacting the accuracy of predictions of future terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we use long-term forest inventory data representative of tropical, temperate, and boreal forests; satellite-based estimates of net primary productivity and vegetation carbon stock; and six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate spatiotemporal trends in carbon residence time and its relation to climate. Forest inventory and satellite-based estimates of carbon residence time show a pervasive decreasing trend across global forests. In contrast, the CMIP5 models diverge in predicting historical and future trends in carbon residence time. Divergence across CMIP5 models indicate carbon turnover times are not well constrained by observations, which likely contributes to large variability in future carbon cycle projections.

Decadal trends in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll: A new assessment integrating multiple satellites, in situ data, and models.

PubMed

Gregg, Watson W; Rousseaux, Cécile S

2014-09-01

Quantifying change in ocean biology using satellites is a major scientific objective. We document trends globally for the period 1998-2012 by integrating three diverse methodologies: ocean color data from multiple satellites, bias correction methods based on in situ data, and data assimilation to provide a consistent and complete global representation free of sampling biases. The results indicated no significant trend in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll over the 15 year data record. These results were consistent with previous findings that were based on the first 6 years and first 10 years of the SeaWiFS mission. However, all of the Northern Hemisphere basins (north of 10° latitude), as well as the Equatorial Indian basin, exhibited significant declines in chlorophyll. Trend maps showed the local trends and their change in percent per year. These trend maps were compared with several other previous efforts using only a single sensor (SeaWiFS) and more limited time series, showing remarkable consistency. These results suggested the present effort provides a path forward to quantifying global ocean trends using multiple satellite missions, which is essential if we are to understand the state, variability, and possible changes in the global oceans over longer time scales.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

AR(p) -based detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.

2018-07-01

Autoregressive models are commonly used for modeling time-series from nature, economics and finance. This work explored simple autoregressive AR(p) models to remove long-term trends in detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Crude oil prices and bitcoin exchange rate were considered, with the former corresponding to a mature market and the latter to an emergent market. Results showed that AR(p) -based DFA performs similar to traditional DFA. However, the former DFA provides information on stability of long-term trends, which is valuable for understanding and quantifying the dynamics of complex time series from financial systems.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

Frequency Analysis of Modis Ndvi Time Series for Determining Hotspot of Land Degradation in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, E.; Sharav, S.; Sanjaa, T.; Lkhamjav, O.; Magsar, E.; Tuvdendorj, B.

2018-04-01

This study examines MODIS NDVI satellite imagery time series can be used to determine hotspot of land degradation area in whole Mongolia. The trend statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall was applied to a 16-year MODIS NDVI satellite imagery record, based on 16-day composited temporal data (from May to September) for growing seasons and from 2000 to 2016. We performed to frequency analysis that resulting NDVI residual trend pattern would enable successful determined of negative and positive changes in photo synthetically health vegetation. Our result showed that negative and positive values and generated a map of significant trends. Also, we examined long-term of meteorological parameters for the same period. The result showed positive and negative NDVI trends concurred with land cover types change representing an improve or a degrade in vegetation, respectively. Also, integrated the climate parameters which were precipitation and air temperature changes in the same time period seem to have had an affecting on huge NDVI trend area. The time series trend analysis approach applied successfully determined hotspot of an improvement and a degraded area due to land degradation and desertification.

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

Evaluation of non-stationarity of floods in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Palmer, R. N.

2017-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States, ultimately affecting the quantity and seasonal distribution of streamflow. Such information is crucial for flood protection polices for example for regional flood frequency analysis. The objective of this study is to analyze seasonality and magnitude of long-term daily annual maximum streamflow (AMF) records and its changes for 158 sites in Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States. Temporal trends were analyzed based on two 30-year blocks (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) of AMF. Seasonality is assessed based on nonparametric directional/circular statistical method that allows for an adaptive estimation of seasonal density. The results for temporal change in seasonality showed mixed pattern/trend across the stations. While for majority of the stations, the distribution of AMF timing is strongly unimodal (concentrated around Spring season) for the earlier time period, the strength in the modes have gotten weaker during the recent time period for a number of stations along the coastal states indicating the emergence of multiple modes and change in seasonality therein. Assessment of the temporal change in magnitude of AMF based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test shows that majority of the stations do not show significant increasing or decreasing trend for either time period. It is also observed that comparatively more stations show increasing trends in magnitude based on AMF from earlier time period and most of these stations are coastal sites concentrated in the southeastern part of the region. Our study focused on both seasonality and magnitude of AMF has important implications for flood management and mitigation.

The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schrier, G.; van Ulden, A.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

2011-05-01

The Central Netherlands Temperature (CNT) is a monthly daily mean temperature series constructed from homogenized time series from the centre of the Netherlands. The purpose of this series is to offer a homogeneous time series representative of a larger area in order to study large-scale temperature changes. It will also facilitate a comparison with climate models, which resolve similar scales. From 1906 onwards, temperature measurements in the Netherlands have been sufficiently standardized to construct a high-quality series. Long time series have been constructed by merging nearby stations and using the overlap to calibrate the differences. These long time series and a few time series of only a few decades in length have been subjected to a homogeneity analysis in which significant breaks and artificial trends have been corrected. Many of the detected breaks correspond to changes in the observations that are documented in the station metadata. This version of the CNT, to which we attach the version number 1.1, is constructed as the unweighted average of four stations (De Bilt, Winterswijk/Hupsel, Oudenbosch/Gilze-Rijen and Gemert/Volkel) with the stations Eindhoven and Deelen added from 1951 and 1958 onwards, respectively. The global gridded datasets used for detecting and attributing climate change are based on raw observational data. Although some homogeneity adjustments are made, these are not based on knowledge of local circumstances but only on statistical evidence. Despite this handicap, and the fact that these datasets use grid boxes that are far larger then the area associated with that of the Central Netherlands Temperature, the temperature interpolated to the CNT region shows a warming trend that is broadly consistent with the CNT trend in all of these datasets. The actual trends differ from the CNT trend up to 30 %, which highlights the need to base future global gridded temperature datasets on homogenized time series.

Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Projection of landfill stabilization period by time series analysis of leachate quality and transformation trends of VOCs.

PubMed

Sizirici, Banu; Tansel, Berrin

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate suitability of using the time series analysis for selected leachate quantity and quality parameters to forecast the duration of post closure period of a closed landfill. Selected leachate quality parameters (i.e., sodium, chloride, iron, bicarbonate, total dissolved solids (TDS), and ammonium as N) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (i.e., vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, chlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, total BTEX) were analyzed by the time series multiplicative decomposition model to estimate the projected levels of the parameters. These parameters were selected based on their detection levels and consistency of detection in leachate samples. In addition, VOCs detected in leachate and their chemical transformations were considered in view of the decomposition stage of the landfill. Projected leachate quality trends were analyzed and compared with the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for the respective parameters. Conditions that lead to specific trends (i.e., increasing, decreasing, or steady) and interactions of leachate quality parameters were evaluated. Decreasing trends were projected for leachate quantity, concentrations of sodium, chloride, TDS, ammonia as N, vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, and total BTEX. Increasing trends were projected for concentrations of iron, bicarbonate, and chlorobenzene. Anaerobic conditions in landfill provide favorable conditions for corrosion of iron resulting in higher concentrations over time. Bicarbonate formation as a byproduct of bacterial respiration during waste decomposition and the lime rock cap system of the landfill contribute to the increasing levels of bicarbonate in leachate. Chlorobenzene is produced during anaerobic biodegradation of 1,4-dichlorobenzene, hence, the increasing trend of chlorobenzene may be due to the declining trend of 1,4-dichlorobenzene. The time series multiplicative decomposition model in general provides an adequate forecast for future planning purposes for the parameters monitored in leachate. The model projections for 1,4-dichlorobenzene were relatively less accurate in comparison to the projections for vinyl chloride and chlorobenzene. Based on the trends observed, future monitoring needs for the selected leachate parameters were identified.

Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks.

PubMed

Saad, E W; Prokhorov, D V; Wunsch, D C

1998-01-01

Three networks are compared for low false alarm stock trend predictions. Short-term trends, particularly attractive for neural network analysis, can be used profitably in scenarios such as option trading, but only with significant risk. Therefore, we focus on limiting false alarms, which improves the risk/reward ratio by preventing losses. To predict stock trends, we exploit time delay, recurrent, and probabilistic neural networks (TDNN, RNN, and PNN, respectively), utilizing conjugate gradient and multistream extended Kalman filter training for TDNN and RNN. We also discuss different predictability analysis techniques and perform an analysis of predictability based on a history of daily closing price. Our results indicate that all the networks are feasible, the primary preference being one of convenience.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a.s.l.). Higher order autoregressive processes are important in the isotope time series analysis. Our results show that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative.

Editorial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

The two articles in this issue of the European Physical Journal Special Topics cover topics in Econophysics and GPU computing in the last years. In the first article [1], the formation of market prices for financial assets is described which can be understood as superposition of individual actions of market participants, in which they provide cumulative supply and demand. This concept of macroscopic properties emerging from microscopic interactions among the various subcomponents of the overall system is also well-known in statistical physics. The distribution of price changes in financial markets is clearly non-Gaussian leading to distinct features of the price process, such as scaling behavior, non-trivial correlation functions and clustered volatility. This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

PubMed Central

He, Feng; Zeng, An-Ping

2006-01-01

Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC), includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC) method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological interactions, including 443 known protein interactions and some known cell cycle related regulatory interactions. It should be emphasized that the overlapping of gene pairs detected by the three methods is normally not very high, indicating a necessity of combining the different methods in search of functional association of genes from time-series data. For a p-value threshold of 1E-5 the percentage of process-identity and function-similarity gene pairs among the shared part of the three methods reaches 60.2% and 55.6% respectively, building a good basis for further experimental and functional study. Furthermore, the combined use of methods is important to infer more complete regulatory circuits and network as exemplified in this study. Conclusion The TC method can significantly augment the current major methods to infer functional linkages and biological network and is well suitable for exploring temporal relationships of gene expression in time-series data. PMID:16478547

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

Understanding Differences in the Body Burden–Age Relationships of Bioaccumulating Contaminants Based on Population Cross Sections versus Individuals

PubMed Central

Quinn, Cristina L.

2012-01-01

Background: Body burdens of persistent bioaccumulative contaminants estimated from the cross-sectional biomonitoring of human populations are often plotted against age. Such relationships have previously been assumed to reflect the role of age in bioaccumulation. Objectives: We used a mechanistic modeling approach to reproduce concentration-versus-age relationships and investigate factors that influence them. Method: CoZMoMAN is an environmental fate and human food chain bioaccumulation model that estimates time trends in human body burdens in response to time-variant environmental emissions. Trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153 concentrations versus age for population cross sections were estimated using simulated longitudinal data for individual women born at different times. The model was also used to probe the influence of partitioning and degradation properties, length of emissions, and model assumptions regarding lipid content and liver metabolism on concentration–age trends of bioaccumulative and persistent contaminants. Results: Body burden–age relationships for population cross sections and individuals over time are not equivalent. The time lapse between the peak in emissions and sample collection for biomonitoring is the most influential factor controlling the shape of concentration–age trends for chemicals with human metabolic half-lives longer than 1 year. Differences in observed concentration–age trends for PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers are consistent with differences in emission time trends and human metabolic half-lives. Conclusions: Bioaccumulation does not monotonically increase with age. Our model suggests that the main predictors of cross-sectional body burden trends with age are the amount of time elapsed after peak emissions and the human metabolic and environmental degradation rates. PMID:22472302

Connecting Snowmelt Runoff Timing Changes to Watershed Characteristics in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, I. T.; Peterson, D. H.

2008-12-01

Shifts in the timing of snowmelt runoff are an expected consequence of climatic changes and have been observed throughout western North America for the past several decades. While the snowmelt runoff has in general come earlier, the magnitude, and sometimes direction, of streamflow timing trends has varied throughout the region in a manner that is not explained by the differences in location or gauge elevation alone. The gauge-to-gauge differences in the observed streamflow timing trends, which have not been systematically explored, are investigated in this study by linking the hydrologic response of a stream to the physical characteristics of the watershed above the gauge. To this end, the very recent trends in streamflow timing measures (such as the timing of the start of the spring snowmelt pulse, the timing of the center of mass for flow, the annual flow, and the timing of the day when maximum flow occurs) for approximately 60 snowmelt-dominated gauges in California were analyzed in conjunction with a GIS-based data base of the watershed characteristics (such as elevation distribution, slope, aspect, and vegetation) through the 2008 runoff season. The improved knowledge of how a watershed has reacted to recent climatic changes can aid in the development of future adaptive strategies in managing water resources in California.

Increasing Base Cations in Streams: Another Legacy of Deicing Salts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helton, A. M.; Barclay, J. R.; Bellucci, C.; Rittenhouse, C.

2017-12-01

Elevated use of deicing salts directly increases sodium chloride inputs to watersheds. Sodium can accumulate in soils over time and has the potential to leach other cations (e.g., calcium, magnesium, and potassium) from the soil through cation exchange. We hypothesize that increased use of deicing salts results in a legacy of soils depleted in non-sodium base cations with loss of cations to receiving waters. The goal of this project is to quantify temporal trends in base cations and chloride in streams and rivers across the United States. We used Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) to analyze trends in base cations. Our preliminary analysis of 10 rivers in Connecticut with chemical periods of record ranging from 24 - 64 years (median = 55 years), shows that the flux of base cations is increasing in all sites (25 - 366 103 meq ha-1 yr-1 yr-1), driven largely by increases in sodium (23 - 222 103 meq ha-1 yr-1 yr-1), the dominant cation in 7 of the sites. Chloride is also increasing at all sites (26 - 261 103 meq ha-1 yr-1 yr-1), which, in combination with salt use trends, suggests a road salt source for the increased sodium. Non-sodium cations are also increasing in 9 of the sites (8 - 54 103 meq ha-1 yr-1 yr-1), though they are not directly added with most deicing salts. We will compare these trends to other long-term sites across the United States, and quantify relationships between cation trends and land cover, road density, and snowfall.

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of Sudden Commencements (SC) and Sudden Impulses SI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesmyanovich, E. I.

1974-01-01

Based on world data for the period 1 January 1955 to 31 December 1968, reports of 894 SC cases and 2152 SI cases were collected. A study was made of the diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of their appearances. It is shown that the diurnal trend is pronounced for all events with a maximum at (06-8)h universal time. The diurnal trend for SC in the resultant period is more pronounced. The seasonal trend in incidence of appearances of SC and SI is absent. Thus, geomagnetic disturbances of both SC and SI are monitored by world time. These results lead to the conclusion that the presence or absence of SC and SI during geomagnetic storms is determined not only by the nature of the corpuscular flux, the presence of shock waves and tangential discontinuities, but also by purely terrestrial conditions.

Satellite-Based Evidence for Shrub and Graminoid Tundra Expansion in Northern Quebec from 1986-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McManus, K. M.; Morton, D. C.; Masek, J. G.; Wang, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J.; Ropars, P.; Boudreau, S.

2012-01-01

Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air-photo studies have documented recent changes in high-latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24-year (1986-2010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest-tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last forty years. Using a per-pixel (30 m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud-free) land area experienced a significant (p < 0.05) positive trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, greening trends were not evenly split among cover types. Low shrub and graminoid tundra contributed preferentially to the greening trend, while forested areas were less likely to show significant trends in NDVI. These trends reflect increasing leaf area, rather than an increase in growing season length, because Landsat data were restricted to peak-summer conditions. The average NDVI trend (0.007/yr) corresponds to a leaf-area index (LAI) increase of 0.6 based on the regional relationship between LAI and NDVI from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Across the entire transect, the area-averaged LAI increase was 0.2 during 1986-2010. A higher area-averaged LAI change (0.3) within the shrub-tundra portion of the transect represents a 20-60% relative increase in LAI during the last two decades. Our Landsat-based analysis subdivides the overall high-latitude greening trend into changes in peak-summer greenness by cover type. Different responses within and among shrub, graminoid, and tree-dominated cover types in this study indicate important fine-scale heterogeneity in vegetation growth. Although our findings are consistent with community shifts in low-biomass vegetation types over multi-decadal time scales, the response in tundra and forest ecosystems to recent warming was not uniform.

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

Do Secular Trends in Skeletal Maturity Occur Equally in Both Sexes?

PubMed

Duren, Dana L; Nahhas, Ramzi W; Sherwood, Richard J

2015-08-01

Skeletal maturity assessment provides information on a child's physical development and expectations based on chronological age. Given recently recognized trends for earlier maturity in a variety of systems, most notably puberty, examination of sex-specific secular trends in skeletal maturation is important. For the orthopaedist, recent trends and changes in developmental timing can affect clinical management (eg, treatment timing) if they are currently based on outdated sources. (1) Has the male or female pediatric skeleton experienced a secular trend for earlier maturation over the past 80 years? (2) Do all indicators of maturity trend in the same direction (earlier versus later)? In this retrospective study, a total of 1240 children were examined longitudinally through hand-wrist radiographs for skeletal maturity based on the Fels method. All subjects participate in the Fels Longitudinal Study based in Ohio and were born between 1930 and 1964 for the "early" cohort and between 1965 and 2001 for the "recent" cohort. Sex-specific secular trends were estimated for (1) mean relative skeletal maturity through linear mixed models; and (2) median age of maturation for individual maturity indicators through logistic regression and generalized estimating equations. Overall relative skeletal maturity was significantly advanced in the recent cohort (maximum difference of 5 months at age 13 years for girls, 4 months at age 15 years for boys). For individual maturity indicators, the direction and magnitude of secular trends varied by indicator type and sex. The following statistically significant secular trends were found: (1) earlier maturation of indicators of fusion in both sexes (4 months for girls, 3 months for boys); (2) later maturation of indicators of projection in long bones in both sexes (3 months for girls, 2 months for boys); (3) earlier maturation of indicators of density (4 months) and projection (3 months) in carpals and density in long bones (6 months), for girls only; and (4) later maturation of indicators of long bone shape (3 months) for boys only. A secular trend has occurred in the tempo of maturation of individual components of the pediatric skeleton, and it has occurred in a sex-specific manner. The mosaic nature of this trend, with both earlier and later maturation of individual components of the skeletal age phenotype, calls for greater attention to specific aspects of maturation in addition to the overall skeletal age estimate. The Fels method is currently the most robust method for capturing these components, and future work by our group will deliver an updated, user-friendly version of the Fels assessment tool. Appreciation of sex-specific secular changes in maturation is important for clinical management, including treatment timing, of orthopaedic patients, because children today exhibit a different pattern of maturation than children on whom original maturity assessments were based (including Fels and Greulich-Pyle).

Estimating average annual per cent change in trend analysis

PubMed Central

Clegg, Limin X; Hankey, Benjamin F; Tiwari, Ram; Feuer, Eric J; Edwards, Brenda K

2009-01-01

Trends in incidence or mortality rates over a specified time interval are usually described by the conventional annual per cent change (cAPC), under the assumption of a constant rate of change. When this assumption does not hold over the entire time interval, the trend may be characterized using the annual per cent changes from segmented analysis (sAPCs). This approach assumes that the change in rates is constant over each time partition defined by the transition points, but varies among different time partitions. Different groups (e.g. racial subgroups), however, may have different transition points and thus different time partitions over which they have constant rates of change, making comparison of sAPCs problematic across groups over a common time interval of interest (e.g. the past 10 years). We propose a new measure, the average annual per cent change (AAPC), which uses sAPCs to summarize and compare trends for a specific time period. The advantage of the proposed AAPC is that it takes into account the trend transitions, whereas cAPC does not and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In addition, when the trend is constant over the entire time interval of interest, the AAPC has the advantage of reducing to both cAPC and sAPC. Moreover, because the estimated AAPC is based on the segmented analysis over the entire data series, any selected subinterval within a single time partition will yield the same AAPC estimate—that is it will be equal to the estimated sAPC for that time partition. The cAPC, however, is re-estimated using data only from that selected subinterval; thus, its estimate may be sensitive to the subinterval selected. The AAPC estimation has been incorporated into the segmented regression (free) software Joinpoint, which is used by many registries throughout the world for characterizing trends in cancer rates. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:19856324

Long-term effect of fee-for-service-based reimbursement cuts on processes and outcomes of care for stroke: interrupted time-series study from Taiwan.

PubMed

Tung, Yu-Chi; Chang, Guann-Ming; Cheng, Shou-Hsia

2015-01-01

As healthcare spending continues to increase, reimbursement cuts have become 1 type of healthcare reform to contain costs. Little is known about the long-term impact of cuts in reimbursement, especially under a global budget cap with fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement, on processes and outcomes of care. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts have been implemented since July 2002 in Taiwan. We examined the long-term association of FFS-based reimbursement cuts with trends in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. We analyzed all 411,487 patients with stroke admitted to general acute care hospitals in Taiwan during the period 1997 to 2010 through Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We used a quasi-experimental design with quarterly measures of healthcare utilization and outcomes and used segmented autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis. After accounting for secular trends and other confounders, the implementation of the FFS-based reimbursement cuts was associated with trend changes in computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning (0.31% per quarter; P=0.013), antiplatelet/anticoagulant use (-0.20% per quarter; P<0.001), statin use (0.18% per quarter; P=0.027), physiotherapy/occupational therapy assessment (0.25% per quarter; P<0.001), and 30-day mortality (0.06% per quarter; P<0.001). There are improvement trends in processes and outcomes of care over time. However, the reimbursement cuts from the FFS-based global budget cap are associated with trend changes in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts may have long-term positive and negative associations with stroke care. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Salary-Trend Studies of Faculty for the Years 1992-93 and 1995-96 in the Following Academic Disciplines/Major Fields: Accounting, Art, General...Geology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howe, Richard D.

This document provides comparative salary trend data for full-time faculty at 212 public and 337 private colleges and universities, based on two surveys, one for the baseline year 1992-93 and the other for the "trend" year 1995-96. For each of the 25 disciplines, a summary review provides a definition of the discipline; information on average…

Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

PubMed

Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

2018-03-10

The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Detecting trends in landscape pattern metrics over a 20-year period using a sampling-based monitoring programme

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Stehman, S.V.; Sohl, Terry L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2003-01-01

Temporal trends in landscape pattern metrics describing texture, patch shape and patch size were evaluated in the US Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion. The landscape pattern metrics were calculated for a sample of land use/cover data obtained for four points in time from 1973-1992. The multiple sampling dates permit evaluation of trend, whereas availability of only two sampling dates allows only evaluation of change. Observed statistically significant trends in the landscape pattern metrics demonstrated that the sampling-based monitoring protocol was able to detect a trend toward a more fine-grained landscape in this ecoregion. This sampling and analysis protocol is being extended spatially to the remaining 83 ecoregions in the US and temporally to the year 2000 to provide a national and regional synthesis of the temporal and spatial dynamics of landscape pattern covering the period 1973-2000.

Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Alex

2017-04-01

Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a univariate technique, and cannot incorporate information from additional covariates, for example ENSO state or physiographic controls on extreme rainfall within a region. Here, the univariate MQR model is extended to allow the use of multiple covariates. Multivariate monotone quantile regression (MMQR) is based on a single hidden-layer feedforward network with the quantile regression error function and partial monotonicity constraints. The MMQR model is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations and the estimation and visualization of regional trends in moderate rainfall extremes based on homogenized sub-daily precipitation data at stations in Canada.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration--data from Australia and the Netherlands.

PubMed

McGrath, John; Selten, Jean-Paul; Chant, David

2002-04-01

Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland, Australia n=6630; The Netherlands n=24,474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration. Males and females were assessed separately. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research.

Population-based trend analysis of laparoscopic Nissen and Toupet fundoplications for gastroesophageal reflux disease.

PubMed

Zingg, U; Rosella, L; Guller, U

2010-12-01

The Nissen and Toupet fundoplications are the most commonly used techniques for surgical treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease. To date, no population-based trend analysis has been reported examining the choice of procedure and short-term outcomes. This study was designed to analyze trends in the use of Nissen versus Toupet fundoplications, and corresponding short-term outcomes during a 10-year period between 1995 and 2004. A trend analysis was performed of 873 patients (Toupet: 254 patients, Nissen: 619 patients) prospectively enrolled in the database of the Swiss Association for Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery. The frequency of the performed techniques remained stable during the observation period (p value for trend 0.206). The average postoperative and total length of hospital stay both significantly decreased during the 10-year period from 5.6 to 4.0 days and 6.8 to 4.8 days, respectively (both p values for trend <0.001). The average duration of surgery decreased significantly from 141 minutes to 121 minutes (p value for trend <0.001). There was a trend towards less complications in later years (2000-2004) compared to early years (1995-1999, p = 0.058). Conversion rates were significantly lower in later years compared with early years (p = 0.004). This is the first trend analysis in the literature reporting clinical outcomes of 873 prospectively enrolled patients undergoing Nissen and Toupet fundoplications during a 10-year period. The proportion of laparoscopic Nissen versus Toupet fundoplications remained stable over time, indicating that literature reports of the advantages of one procedure over the other had minimal influence on surgeons' choice of technique. Length of hospital stay, duration of surgery, morbidity, and conversion rate decreased over time, reflecting the learning curve. Clearly, patient outcomes have much improved during the 10-year observation period.

Current Trends in Higher Education Technology: Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Damewood, Andrea M.

2016-01-01

This paper is focused on how technology in use changes over time, and the current trend of simulation technology as a supported classroom technology. Simulation-based training as a learning tool is discussed within the context of adult learning theories, as is the technology used and how today's higher education technology administrators support…

Salary-Trend Studies for the Years 1993-94 and 1996-97 in the Following 27 Academic Disciplines/Major Fields: Accounting, Administrative Assistant/Secretarial Science, General;...Geology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howe, Richard D.

This document provides comparative salary trend data for full-time faculty at 307 public institutions and 490 private colleges and universities based on two surveys, one for the baseline year 1993-94 and the other for the trend year 1996-97. For each of the 27 disciplines, a summary includes a definition of the discipline; information on average…

Salary-Trend Studies of Faculty for the Years 1993-94 and 1996-97 in the Following 26 Academic Disciplines/Major Fields: History, General;...Visual and Performing Arts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howe, Richard D.

This document provides comparative salary trend data for full-time faculty at 307 public institutions and 490 private colleges and universities based on two surveys, one for the baseline year 1993-94 and the other for the trend year 1996-97. For each of the 26 disciplines, a summary includes a definition of the discipline; information on average…

Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokár, T.; Horváth, D.

2012-11-01

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency returns; nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J. James, Simple trend-following strategies in currency trading, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of grouped trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based predominantly on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the potential forecasting performance.

Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

PubMed

Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

2015-01-01

In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal maps and computer modeling, can yield insights about prevention strategies to address childhood obesity.

Beyond trend analysis: How a modified breakpoint analysis enhances knowledge of agricultural production after Zimbabwe's fast track land reform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hentze, Konrad; Thonfeld, Frank; Menz, Gunter

2017-10-01

In the discourse on land reform assessments, a significant lack of spatial and time-series data has been identified, especially with respect to Zimbabwe's ;Fast-Track Land Reform Programme; (FTLRP). At the same time, interest persists among land use change scientists to evaluate causes of land use change and therefore to increase the explanatory power of remote sensing products. This study recognizes these demands and aims to provide input on both levels: Evaluating the potential of satellite remote sensing time-series to answer questions which evolved after intensive land redistribution efforts in Zimbabwe; and investigating how time-series analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be enhanced to provide information on land reform induced land use change. To achieve this, two time-series methods are applied to MODIS NDVI data: Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) and Breakpoint Analysis for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST). In our first analysis, a link of agricultural productivity trends to different land tenure regimes shows that regional clustering of trends is more dominant than a relationship between tenure and trend with a slightly negative slope for all regimes. We demonstrate that clusters of strong negative and positive productivity trends are results of changing irrigation patterns. To locate emerging and fallow irrigation schemes in semi-arid Zimbabwe, a new multi-method approach is developed which allows to map changes from bimodal seasonal phenological patterns to unimodal and vice versa. With an enhanced breakpoint analysis through the combination of STA and BFAST, we are able to provide a technique that can be applied on large scale to map status and development of highly productive cropping systems, which are key for food production, national export and local employment. We therefore conclude that the combination of existing and accessible time-series analysis methods: is able to achieve both: overcoming demonstrated limitations of MODIS based trend analysis and enhancing knowledge of Zimbabwe's FTLRP.

Impact of Sensor Degradation on the MODIS NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Dongdong; Morton, Douglas Christopher; Masek, Jeffrey; Wu, Aisheng; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Levy, Robert; Vermote, Eric; Wolfe, Robert

2012-01-01

Time series of satellite data provide unparalleled information on the response of vegetation to climate variability. Detecting subtle changes in vegetation over time requires consistent satellite-based measurements. Here, the impact of sensor degradation on trend detection was evaluated using Collection 5 data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra and Aqua platforms. For Terra MODIS, the impact of blue band (Band 3, 470 nm) degradation on simulated surface reflectance was most pronounced at near-nadir view angles, leading to a 0.001-0.004 yr-1 decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) under a range of simulated aerosol conditions and surface types. Observed trends in MODIS NDVI over North America were consistentwith simulated results,with nearly a threefold difference in negative NDVI trends derived from Terra (17.4%) and Aqua (6.7%) MODIS sensors during 2002-2010. Planned adjustments to Terra MODIS calibration for Collection 6 data reprocessing will largely eliminate this negative bias in detection of NDVI trends.

Impact of Sensor Degradation on the MODIS NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Dongdong; Morton, Douglas; Masek, Jeffrey; Wu, Aisheng; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Levy, Robert; Vermote, Eric; Wolfe, Robert

2011-01-01

Time series of satellite data provide unparalleled information on the response of vegetation to climate variability. Detecting subtle changes in vegetation over time requires consistent satellite-based measurements. Here, we evaluated the impact of sensor degradation on trend detection using Collection 5 data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra and Aqua platforms. For Terra MODIS, the impact of blue band (Band 3, 470nm) degradation on simulated surface reflectance was most pronounced at near-nadir view angles, leading to a 0.001-0.004/yr decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) under a range of simulated aerosol conditions and surface types. Observed trends MODIS NDVI over North America were consistent with simulated results, with nearly a threefold difference in negative NDVI trends derived from Terra (17.4%) and Aqua (6.7%) MODIS sensors during 2002-2010. Planned adjustments to Terra MODIS calibration for Collection 6 data reprocessing will largely eliminate this negative bias in NDVI trends over vegetation.

Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R.; Kolian, M. J.; Renard, B.

2017-04-01

Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940-2014 and 1960-2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation (<1600 m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8 days (1940-2014, 0.9 days/decade) and 3.4 days (1960-2014, 0.6 days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600 m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0 days (1940-2014, 0.5 days/decade) and 5.2 days (1960-2014, 0.9 days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February-May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p < 0.0001), demonstrating the sensitivity of WSCVD to air temperature across snowmelt dominated basins in the U.S. WSCVD in high elevation basins in the West, however, was related to both air temperature and precipitation yielding earlier snowmelt-related streamflow timing under warmer and drier conditions.

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: time trends of selected exposures

PubMed Central

Dawson, April L.; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A.; Parker, Samantha E.; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-01-01

Background Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). Methods We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 –2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between six weeks and two years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall’s τβ test statistic. Results The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998–2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of SSRIs and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Conclusions Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. PMID:25884728

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: Time trends of selected exposures.

PubMed

Dawson, April L; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A; Parker, Samantha E; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-08-01

Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 to 2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between 6 weeks and 2 years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall's τβ test statistic. The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998 to 2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Five-year trends in patterns of drug use among people who use stimulants in dance contexts in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

McCambridge, Jim; Mitcheson, Luke; Winstock, Adam; Hunt, Neil

2005-08-01

To describe and evaluate trends in the use of stimulant drugs over a 5-year period using an under-studied data collection method. Repeated-measures cross-sectional survey. Annual magazine-based survey targeting people who use stimulant drugs in dance contexts. Life-time use prevalence (ever used), age of first use, current use prevalence (any use within the last month) and extent of use within the last month (number of days used) for a range of stimulant drugs. Additional measures of quantity of ecstasy used were also collected. Trends in life-time and current prevalence over time have been detected and comparisons made between different stimulant drugs. Evidence is obtained of broad stability in patterns of stimulant use in respect of age of first use and frequency of use among ongoing users. Despite an apparent reduction in the current prevalence of ecstasy use, the proportion of heavy users (usually >4 pills per session) has more than doubled between 1999 and 2003. This purposively sampled population study has yielded time trend data broadly consistent with other indicators, where they exist, and also has demonstrable potential to identify new drug trends. Further comparisons of purposive samples and randomly formed samples are needed.

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center

PubMed Central

Dou, Chao

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always “dirty,” which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the “dirty” data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 PMID:28090205

Main Trend Extraction Based on Irregular Sampling Estimation and Its Application in Storage Volume of Internet Data Center.

PubMed

Miao, Beibei; Dou, Chao; Jin, Xuebo

2016-01-01

The storage volume of internet data center is one of the classical time series. It is very valuable to predict the storage volume of a data center for the business value. However, the storage volume series from a data center is always "dirty," which contains the noise, missing data, and outliers, so it is necessary to extract the main trend of storage volume series for the future prediction processing. In this paper, we propose an irregular sampling estimation method to extract the main trend of the time series, in which the Kalman filter is used to remove the "dirty" data; then the cubic spline interpolation and average method are used to reconstruct the main trend. The developed method is applied in the storage volume series of internet data center. The experiment results show that the developed method can estimate the main trend of storage volume series accurately and make great contribution to predict the future volume value. 
 .

Old Words, New Meanings: A Study of Trends in Science Librarian Job Ads

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bychowski, Brenna K. H.; Caffrey, Carolyn M.; Costa, Mia C.; Moore, Angela D.; Sudhakaran, Jessamyn; Zhang, Yuening

2010-01-01

Job ads are supposed to provide careful descriptions of the positions being advertised. Based on this premise, an analysis of job ads over time should reveal emerging trends and changes in a profession. The existing literature on science librarianship emphasizes that there are fluctuations in the demand for subject expertise and technology skills…

Trends in TIMSS Responses over Time: Evidence of Global Forces in Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutkowski, Leslie; Rutkowski, David

2009-01-01

In this article, the influence of global processes on international mathematics curricula as evidenced by item responses to 3 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) administrations (1995, 1999, and 2003) is considered. Based on Dale's (2000) argument, we set out to test 2 plausible impacts of global processes on education.…

Effective data validation of high-frequency data: time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods.

PubMed

Horn, W; Miksch, S; Egghart, G; Popow, C; Paky, F

1997-09-01

Real-time systems for monitoring and therapy planning, which receive their data from on-line monitoring equipment and computer-based patient records, require reliable data. Data validation has to utilize and combine a set of fast methods to detect, eliminate, and repair faulty data, which may lead to life-threatening conclusions. The strength of data validation results from the combination of numerical and knowledge-based methods applied to both continuously-assessed high-frequency data and discontinuously-assessed data. Dealing with high-frequency data, examining single measurements is not sufficient. It is essential to take into account the behavior of parameters over time. We present time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods for validation and repair. These are complemented by time-independent methods for determining an overall reliability of measurements. The data validation benefits from the temporal data-abstraction process, which provides automatically derived qualitative values and patterns. The temporal abstraction is oriented on a context-sensitive and expectation-guided principle. Additional knowledge derived from domain experts forms an essential part for all of these methods. The methods are applied in the field of artificial ventilation of newborn infants. Examples from the real-time monitoring and therapy-planning system VIE-VENT illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the methods.

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

DOE PAGES

Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; ...

2015-04-26

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variabilitymore » in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.« less

Updating temperature and salinity mean values and trends in the Western Mediterranean: The RADMED project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Yáñez, M.; García-Martínez, M. C.; Moya, F.; Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Serra, M.; Zunino, P.; Pascual, J.; Salat, J.

2017-09-01

The RADMED project is devoted to the implementation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary monitoring system around the Spanish Mediterranean waters. This observing system is based on periodic multidisciplinary cruises covering the coastal waters, continental shelf and slope waters and some deep stations (>2000 m) from the Westernmost Alboran Sea to Barcelona in the Catalan Sea, including the Balearic Islands. This project was launched in 2007 unifying and extending some previous monitoring projects which had a more reduced geographical coverage. Some of the time series currently available extend from 1992, while the more recent ones were initiated in 2007. The present work updates the available time series up to 2015 (included) and shows the capability of these time series for two main purposes: the calculation of mean values for the properties of main water masses around the Spanish Mediterranean, and the study of the interannual and decadal variability of such properties. The data set provided by the RADMED project has been merged with historical data from the MEDAR/MEDATLAS data base for the calculation of temperature and salinity trends from 1900 to 2015. The analysis of these time series shows that the intermediate and deep layers of the Western Mediterranean have increased their temperature and salinity with an acceleration of the warming and salting trends from 1943. Trends for the heat absorbed by the water column for the 1943-2015 period, range between 0.2 and 0.6 W/m2 depending on the used methodology. The temperature and salinity trends for the same period and for the intermediate layer are 0.002 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1 respectively. Deep layers warmed and increased their salinity at a rate of 0.004 °C/yr and 0.001 yr-1.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variabilitymore » in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.« less

A trend analysis of surgical operations under a global payment system in Tehran, Iran (2005–2015)

PubMed Central

Goudari, Faranak Behzadi; Rashidian, Arash; Arab, Mohammad; Mahmoudi, Mahmood

2018-01-01

Background Global payment system is a first example of per-case payment system that contains 60 commonly used surgical operations for which payment is based on the average cost per case in Iran. Objective The aim of the study was to determine the amount of reduction, increase or no change in the trend of global operations. Methods In this retrospective longitudinal study, data on the 60 primary global surgery codes was gathered from Tehran Health Insurance Organization within the ten-year period of 2005–2015 separately, for each month. Out of 60 surgery codes, only acceptable data for 46 codes were available based on the insurance documents sent by medical centers. A quantitative analysis of time series through Regression Analysis Model using STATA software v.11 was performed. Results Some global surgery codes had an upward trend and some were downwards. Of N Codes, N83, N20, N28, N63, and N93 had an upward trend (p<0.05) and N32, N43, N81 and N90 showed a significant downward trend (p<0.05). Similarly, all H Codes except for H18 had a significant upward trend (p<0.000). As such, K Codes including K45, K56 and K81 had an increasing movement. S Codes also experienced both increasing and decreasing trends. However, none of the O Codes changed according to time. Other global surgical codes like C61, E07, M51, L60, J98 (p<0.000), I84 (p<0.031) and I86 (p<0.000) shown upward and downward trends. Total global surgeries trend was significantly upwards (B=24.26109, p<0.000). Conclusion The varying trend of global surgeries can partly reflect the behavior of service providers in order to increase their profits and minimize their costs. PMID:29765576

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of good status. Bourgine B. et al. 2012, Ninth International Geostatistics Congress, Oslo, Norway June 11 - 15. Lopez B. et al. 2011, Final Report BRGM/RP-59515-FR. 166p.

Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a 'business as usual' climate change scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2004-01-01

Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948-2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timing changes for the 1995-2099 period are projected using regression relations between observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30-40 days earlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

Trends in cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for the treatment of synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis of colorectal origin in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Razenberg, L G E M; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G-J; Verwaal, V J; Lemmens, V E P P; de Hingh, I H J T

2015-04-01

Population-based data on the percentage of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) being treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are currently lacking. The current population-based study describes trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC in the Netherlands, one of the first countries where CRS and HIPEC was introduced. All patients diagnosed with synchronous PC of CRC between 2005 and 2012 were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 4623). Patients with primary appendiceal cancer were excluded resulting in a study population of 4430 patients. Trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC over time were analyzed by means of a Cochrane-Armitage trend test. Survival proportions were calculated as the time between diagnosis and date of death or last follow-up (January 2014). Of the total 4430 patients with synchronous PC, 297 (6.4%) underwent treatment with CRS-HIPEC. The proportion of colorectal PC patients receiving CRS-HIPEC increased significantly over time from 3.6% in 2005-2006 to 9.7% in 2011-2012 (p < 0.0001). Overall median survival (MS) for patients treated with CRS-HIPEC was 32.3 months, whereas MS rates were respectively 12.6, 6.1 and 1.5 for months palliative chemotherapy with/without surgery, palliative surgery and best supportive care. The proportion of patients diagnosed with synchronous PC from CRC treated with CRS-HIPEC has increased significantly over time and currently almost 10% of PC patients are treated with CRS-HIPEC. Median survival in this population based group is 32.3 months. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

PubMed

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

PubMed Central

Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2014-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System–Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters’ initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time. PMID:29795823

An innovative procedure to assess multi-scale temporal trends in groundwater quality: Example of the nitrate in the Seine-Normandy basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Baran, Nicole; Bourgine, Bernard

2015-03-01

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) asks Member States to identify trends in contaminant concentrations in groundwater and to take measures to reach a good chemical status by 2015. In this study, carried out in a large hydrological basin (95,300 km2), an innovative procedure is described for the assessment of recent trends in groundwater nitrate concentrations both at sampling point and regional scales. Temporal variograms of piezometric and nitrate concentration time series are automatically calculated and fitted in order to classify groundwater according to their temporal pattern. These results are then coupled with aquifer lithology to map spatial units within which the modes of diffuse transport of contaminants towards groundwater are assumed to be the same at all points. These spatial units are suitable for evaluating regional trends. The stability over time of the time series is tested based on the cumulative sum principle, to determine the time period during which the trend should be sought. The Mann-Kendall and Regional-Kendall nonparametric tests for monotonic trends, coupled with the Sen-slope test, are applied to the periods following the point breaks thus determined at both the sampling point or regional scales. This novel procedure is robust and enables rapid processing of large databases of raw data. It would therefore be useful for managing groundwater quality in compliance with the aims of the WFD.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores.

PubMed

Casabianca, Jodi M; Lockwood, J R; McCaffrey, Daniel F

2015-04-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters' initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time.

[The case-case-time-control study design].

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Zhuo, Lin; Zhan, Siyan

2014-12-01

Although the 'self-matched case-only studies' (such as the case-cross-over or self-controlled case-series method) can control the time-invariant confounders (measured or unmeasured) through design of the study, however, they can not control those confounders that vary with time. A bidirectional case-crossover design can be used to adjust the exposure-time trends. In the areas of pharmaco-epidemiology, illness often influence the future use of medications, making a bidirectional study design problematic. Suissa's case-time-control design combines the case-crossover and the case-control design which could adjust for exposure-trend bias, but the control group may reintroduce selection bias, if the matching does not go well. We propose a "case-case-time-control" design which is an extension of the case-time-control design. However, rather than using a sample of external controls, we choose those future cases as controls for current cases to counter the bias that arising from temporal trends caused by exposure to the target of interest. In the end of this article we will discuss the strength and limitations of this design based on an applied example.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Time-series analyses of air pollution and mortality in the United States: a subsampling approach.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; McClellan, Roger O; Dewanji, Anup; Turim, Jay; Luebeck, E Georg; Edwards, Melanie

2013-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian methods have been used in previous papers to estimate national mean effects of air pollutants on daily deaths in time-series analyses. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates of the common national effects of the criteria pollutants on mortality based on time-series data from ≤ 108 metropolitan areas in the United States. We used a subsampling bootstrap procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and confidence bounds for common national effects of the criteria pollutants, as measured by the percentage increase in daily mortality associated with a unit increase in daily 24-hr mean pollutant concentration on the previous day, while controlling for weather and temporal trends. We considered five pollutants [PM10, ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)] in single- and multipollutant analyses. Flexible ambient concentration-response models for the pollutant effects were considered as well. We performed limited sensitivity analyses with different degrees of freedom for time trends. In single-pollutant models, we observed significant associations of daily deaths with all pollutants. The O3 coefficient was highly sensitive to the degree of smoothing of time trends. Among the gases, SO2 and NO2 were most strongly associated with mortality. The flexible ambient concentration-response curve for O3 showed evidence of nonlinearity and a threshold at about 30 ppb. Differences between the results of our analyses and those reported from using the Bayesian approach suggest that estimates of the quantitative impact of pollutants depend on the choice of statistical approach, although results are not directly comparable because they are based on different data. In addition, the estimate of the O3-mortality coefficient depends on the amount of smoothing of time trends.

Trends in the Participation and Performance of Students with Disabilities. Technical Report 50

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thurlow, Martha; Quenemoen, Rachel; Altman, Jason; Cuthbert, Marge

2008-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the participation and performance trends over time for students with disabilities, progressing from school year 2001-02, a base year for determining AYP goals under NCLB, through school year 2004-05, the third year that states reported after the NCLB baseline year (VanGetson & Thurlow, 2007). Within…

Trends in Prevalence and Characteristics of Post-Neonatal Cerebral Palsy Cases: A European Registry-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Germany, Laurence; Ehlinger, Virginie; Klapouszczak, Dana; Delobel, Malika; Hollody, Katalin; Sellier, Elodie; De La Cruz, Javier; Alberge, Corine; Genolini, Christophe; Arnaud, Catherine

2013-01-01

The present paper aims to analyze trends over time in prevalence of cerebral palsy of post-neonatal origin, to investigate whether changes are similar according to severity and to describe the disability profile by etiology. Post-neonatal cases, birth years 1976 to 1998, were identified from the Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe…

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Damage evaluation by a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Hanfei; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Zhang, Jinjin

2016-02-01

Guided wave based structural health monitoring has shown great potential in aerospace applications. However, one of the key challenges of practical engineering applications is the accurate interpretation of the guided wave signals under time-varying environmental and operational conditions. This paper presents a guided wave-hidden Markov model based method to improve the damage evaluation reliability of real aircraft structures under time-varying conditions. In the proposed approach, an HMM based unweighted moving average trend estimation method, which can capture the trend of damage propagation from the posterior probability obtained by HMM modeling is used to achieve a probabilistic evaluation of the structural damage. To validate the developed method, experiments are performed on a hole-edge crack specimen under fatigue loading condition and a real aircraft wing spar under changing structural boundary conditions. Experimental results show the advantage of the proposed method.

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network

PubMed Central

Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. PMID:29420584

A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

PubMed

Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5°N - 20°S, 150°W - 30°E from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially reduced over the time period under study.

On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B.; Ambika, G.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2012-09-01

Financial data has been extensively studied for correlations using Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient ρ as the point of departure. We employ an estimator based on recurrence plots - the correlation of probability of recurrence (CPR) - to analyze connections between nine stock indices spread worldwide. We suggest a slight modification of the CPR approach in order to get more robust results. We examine trends in CPR for an approximately 19-month window moved along the time series and compare them to trends in ρ. Binning CPR into three levels of connectedness (strong, moderate, and weak), we extract the trends in number of connections in each bin over time. We also look at the behavior of CPR during the dot-com bubble by shifting the time series to align their peaks. CPR mainly uncovers that the markets move in and out of periods of strong connectivity erratically, instead of moving monotonically towards increasing global connectivity. This is in contrast to ρ, which gives a picture of ever-increasing correlation. CPR also exhibits that time-shifted markets have high connectivity around the dot-com bubble of 2000. We use significance tests using twin surrogates to interpret all the measures estimated in the study.

Climatology of Ultra Violet (UV) irradiance as measured through the Belgian ground-based monitoring network during the time period of 1995-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Praveen; Gillotay, Didier; Depiesse, Cedric

2016-04-01

In this study we describe the network of ground-based ultraviolet (UV) radiation monitoring stations in Belgium. The evolution of the entire network, together with the details of measuring instruments is given. The observed cumulative irradiances -UVB, UVA and total solar irradiance (TSI)- over the course of measurement for three stations -a northern (Ostende), central (Uccle) and a southern (Redu)- are shown. The longest series of measurement shown in this study is at Uccle, Brussels, from 1995 till 2014. Thus, the variation of the UV index (UVI), together with the variation of irradiances during summer and winter months at Uccle are shown as a part of this climatological study. The trend of UVB irradiance over the above mentioned three stations is shown. This UVB trend is studied in conjunction with the long-term satellite-based total column ozone value over Belgium, which shows two distinct trends marked by a change point. The total column ozone trend following the change point is positive. It is also seen that the UVB trend is positive for the urban/sub-urban sites: Uccle and Redu. Whereas the UVB trend at Ostende, which is a coastal site, is not positive. A possible explanation of this relation between total column ozone and UVB trend could be associated with aerosols, which is shown in this paper by means of a radiative transfer model based study -as a part of a preliminary investigation. It is seen that the UVI is influenced by the type of aerosols.

Comparison of GPS tropospheric delays derived from two consecutive EPN reprocessing campaigns from the point of view of climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this research was to acquire information about consistency of ZTD (zenith total delay) linear trends and seasonal components between two consecutive GPS reprocessing campaigns. The analysis concerned two sets of the ZTD time series which were estimated during EUREF (Reference Frame Sub-Commission for Europe) EPN (Permanent Network) reprocessing campaigns according to 2008 and 2015 MUT AC (Military University of Technology Analysis Centre) scenarios. Firstly, Lomb-Scargle periodograms were generated for 57 EPN stations to obtain a characterisation of oscillations occurring in the ZTD time series. Then, the values of seasonal components and linear trends were estimated using the LSE (least squares estimation) approach. The Mann-Kendall trend test was also carried out to verify the presence of linear long-term ZTD changes. Finally, differences in seasonal signals and linear trends between these two data sets were investigated. All these analyses were conducted for the ZTD time series of two lengths: a shortened 16-year series and a full 18-year one. In the case of spectral analysis, amplitudes of the annual and semi-annual periods were almost exactly the same for both reprocessing campaigns. Exceptions were found for only a few stations and they did not exceed 1 mm. The estimated trends were also similar. However, for the reprocessing performed in 2008, the trends values were usually higher. In general, shortening of the analysed time period by 2 years resulted in a decrease of the linear trends values of about 0.07 mm yr-1. This was confirmed by analyses based on two data sets.

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

The color of sea level: Importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.

2010-10-01

We investigate spatial variations in the shape of the spectrum of sea level variability based on a homogeneously sampled 12 year gridded altimeter data set. We present a method of plotting spectral information as color, focusing on periods between 2 and 24 weeks, which shows that significant spatial variations in the spectral shape exist and contain useful dynamical information. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion, we determine that, typically, a fifth-order autoregressive model is needed to capture the structure in the spectrum. Using this model, we show that statistical errors in fitted local trends range between less than 1 and more than 5 times of what would be calculated assuming "white" noise and that the time needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend ranges between about 5 years and many decades. For global mean sea level, the statistical error reduces to 0.1 mm/yr over 12 years, with only 2 years needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend. We find significant regional differences in trend from the global mean. The patterns of these regional differences are indicative of a sea level trend dominated by dynamical ocean processes over this period.

Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump.

PubMed

Bovet, Alexandre; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A

2018-06-06

Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite the large amount of work addressing this question, there has been no clear validation of online social media opinion trend with traditional surveys. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to build an in-domain training set of the order of a million tweets. We validate our method in the context of 2016 US Presidential Election by comparing the Twitter opinion trend with the New York Times National Polling Average, representing an aggregate of hundreds of independent traditional polls. The Twitter opinion trend follows the aggregated NYT polls with remarkable accuracy. We investigate the dynamics of the social network formed by the interactions among millions of Twitter supporters and infer the support of each user to the presidential candidates. Our analytics unleash the power of Twitter to uncover social trends from elections, brands to political movements, and at a fraction of the cost of traditional surveys.

Incorporating Nonstationarity into IDF Curves across CONUS from Station Records and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are widely used for engineering design of storm-affected structures. Current practice is that IDF-curves are based on observed precipitation extremes fit to a stationary probability distribution (e.g., the extreme value family). However, there is increasing evidence of nonstationarity in station records. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend test to over 1000 stations across the CONUS at a 0.05 significance level, and find that about 30% of stations test have significant nonstationarity for at least one duration (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, and 48-hours). We fit the stations to a GEV distribution with time-varying location and scale parameters using a Bayesian- methodology and compare the fit of stationary versus nonstationary GEV distributions to observed precipitation extremes. Within our fitted nonstationary GEV distributions, we compare distributions with a time-varying location parameter versus distributions with both time-varying location and scale parameters. For distributions with two time-varying parameters, we pay particular attention to instances where location and scale trends have opposing directions. Finally, we use the mathematical framework based on work of Koutsoyiannis to generate IDF curves based on the fitted GEV distributions and discuss the implications that using time-varying parameters may have on simple scaling relationships. We apply the above methods to evaluate how frequency statistics based on a stationary assumption compare to those that incorporate nonstationarity for both short and long term projects. Overall, we find that neglecting nonstationarity can lead to under- or over-estimates (depending on the trend for the given duration and region) of important statistics such as the design storm.

Examination of Regional Trends in Cloud Properties over Surface Sites Derived from MODIS and AVHRR using the CERES Cloud Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. L., Jr.; Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Sun-Mack, S.; Chen, Y.; Doelling, D. R.; Kato, S.; Rutan, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies analyzing long-term measurements of surface insolation at ground sites suggest that decadal-scale trends of increasing (brightening) and decreasing (dimming) downward solar flux have occurred at various times over the last century. Regional variations have been reported that range from near 0 Wm-2/decade to as large as 9 Wm-2/decade depending on the location and time period analyzed. The more significant trends have been attributed to changes in overhead clouds and aerosols, although quantifying their relative impacts using independent observations has been difficult, owing in part to a lack of consistent long-term measurements of cloud properties. This paper examines new satellite based records of cloud properties derived from MODIS (2000-present) and AVHRR (1981- present) data to infer cloud property trends over a number of surface radiation sites across the globe. The MODIS cloud algorithm was developed for the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to provide a consistent record of cloud properties to help improve broadband radiation measurements and to better understand cloud radiative effects. The CERES-MODIS cloud algorithm has been modified to analyze other satellites including the AVHRR on the NOAA satellites. Compared to MODIS, obtaining consistent cloud properties over a long period from AVHRR is a much more significant challenge owing to the number of different satellites, instrument calibration uncertainties, orbital drift and other factors. Nevertheless, both the MODIS and AVHRR cloud properties will be analyzed to determine trends, and their level of consistency and correspondence with surface radiation trends derived from the ground-based radiometer data. It is anticipated that this initial study will contribute to an improved understanding of surface solar radiation trends and their relationship to clouds.

An In Depth Look at Lightning Trends in Hurricane Harvey using Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringhausen, J.

2017-12-01

This research combines satellite measurements of lightning in Hurricane Harvey with ground-based lightning measurements to get a better sense of the total lightning occurring in the hurricane, both intra-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG), and how it relates to the intensification and weakening of the tropical system. Past studies have looked at lightning trends in hurricanes using the space based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) or ground-based lightning detection networks. However, both of these methods have drawbacks. For instance, LIS was in low earth orbit, which limited lightning observations to 90 seconds for a particular point on the ground; hence, continuous lightning coverage of a hurricane was not possible. Ground-based networks can have a decreased detection efficiency, particularly for ICs, over oceans where hurricanes generally intensify. With the launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite, researchers can study total lightning continuously over the lifetime of a tropical cyclone. This study utilizes GLM to investigate total lightning activity in Hurricane Harvey temporally; this is augmented with spatial analysis relative to hurricane structure, similar to previous studies. Further, GLM and ground-based network data are combined using Bayesian techniques in a new manner to leverage the strengths of each detection method. This methodology 1) provides a more complete estimate of lightning activity and 2) enables the derivation of the IC:CG ratio (Z-ratio) throughout the time period of the study. In particular, details of the evolution of the Z-ratio in time and space are presented. In addition, lightning stroke spatiotemporal trends are compared to lightning flash trends. This research represents a new application of lightning data that can be used in future study of tropical cyclone intensification and weakening.

Towards intensive parenting? Changes in the composition and determinants of mothers' and fathers' time with children 1992-2006.

PubMed

Craig, Lyn; Powell, Abigail; Smyth, Ciara

2014-09-01

Contemporary expectations of good parenting hold that focused, intensive parental attention is essential to children's development. Parental input is viewed as a key determinant in children's social, psychological and educational outcomes, with the early years particularly crucial. However, increased rates of maternal employment mean that more parents are juggling work and family commitments and have less non-work time available to devote to children. Yet studies find that parental childcare time has increased over recent decades. In this paper, we explore the detail of this trend using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Time Use Survey (TUS), 1992 and 2006. To investigate whether discourses on intensive parenting are reflected in behaviour, we examine a greater range of parent-child activities than has been undertaken to date, looking at trends in active childcare time (disaggregated into talk-based, physical and accompanying care activities); time in childcare as a secondary activity; time spent in the company of children in leisure activities; and time spent in the company of children in total. We also investigate whether the influence of factors known to predict parental time with children (gender, education, employment status and the age of children) have changed over time. We contextualize our analyses within social and economic trends in Australia and find a compositional change in parental time, with more active childcare occurring within less overall time, which suggests more intensive, child-centred parenting. Fathers' parent-child time, particularly in physical care, increased more than mothers' (from a much lower base), and tertiary education no longer predicts significantly higher childcare time. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Can time-dependent density functional theory predict intersystem crossing in organic chromophores? A case study on benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules.

PubMed

Tam, Teck Lip Dexter; Lin, Ting Ting; Chua, Ming Hui

2017-06-21

Here we utilized new diagnostic tools in time-dependent density functional theory to explain the trend of intersystem crossing in benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules. These molecules display a wide range of fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields, making them excellent candidates for testing the validity of these diagnostic tools. We believe that these tools are cost-effective and can be applied to structurally similar organic chromophores to predict/explain the trends of intersystem crossing, and thus fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields without the use of complex and expensive multireference configuration interaction or multireference pertubation theory methods.

Time Series Analysis of Technology Trends based on the Internet Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Shin-Ichi; Shirai, Yasuyuki; Hiyane, Kazuo; Kumeno, Fumihiro; Inujima, Hiroshi; Yamauchi, Noriyoshi

Information technology is increasingly important in recent years for the development of our society. IT has brought many changes to everything in our society with incredible speed. Hence, when we investigate R & D themes or plan business strategies in IT, we must understand overall situation around the target technology area besides technology itself. Especially it is crucial to understand overall situation as time series to know what will happen in the near future in the target area. For this purpose, we developed a method to generate Multiple-phased trend maps automatically based on the Internet content. Furthermore, we introduced quantitative indicators to analyze near future possible changes. According to the evaluation of this method we got successful and interesting results.

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, O. R.; Parrish, D. D.; Ziemke, J.; Cupeiro, M.; Galbally, I. E.; Gilge, S.; Horowitz, L.; Jensen, N. R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.;

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks.

PubMed

Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y; Kantelhardt, Jan W

2015-01-01

Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic's importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends.

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks

PubMed Central

Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.

2015-01-01

Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic’s importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends. PMID:26720074

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological effects, has been developed in order to a) investigate if trends are masked by meteorological variability and b) to understand which part of the observed trends is meteorology driven. By correlating short-term variation of ozone, as obtained from the EEMD, with the corresponding short-term variation of relevant meteorological parameters, we subtract the variation of ozone concentrations that is related to the meteorological effects explained by the GAM. We find that higher frequency meteorological correction reduces further the uncertainty in trend estimation by a small factor. In addition, the seasonal variability of ozone as obtained from the EEMD has been studied in more detail for possible changes in its behavior. A shortening of the seasonal cycle was observed, i.e. reduction of maximum and in-crease of minimum concentration per year, while the occurrence of maximum is shifted to earlier times during a year. In summary, we present a sophisticated and consistent approach for detecting and categorizing trends and meteorological influences on ozone concentrations in long-term measurements across Europe.

[Current Situation and Prospects of Emergency Medical Equipment in Our Country].

PubMed

Qi, Lijing; Cheng, Feng

2016-03-01

This article analyzes the new demand of emergency medical equipment in the current development trend based on the analysis of the development and current situation of emergency medicine in our country. At the same time it introduces the current industrial characteristics of our country. Finally it analyzes the development trend of this kind of equipment in the new emergency medicine field.

Effective Contracting: Trends and Lessons-Learned

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-25

present a briefing on their current state of medical contracting; covering trends and lessons- learned from over the past 24 months. Their perspective...basing • Future opportunities in the MHS with a focus on strategic sourcing. • SECDEF guidance 2011 MHS Conference HCAA Mission To provide sound...including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

2015-12-01

The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a developing country like India. A steady increase in AARs in most of the registries of India including the newly established registries is indicative of the fact that cancer breast poses a threat to women in India.

Statistical estimation via convex optimization for trending and performance monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samar, Sikandar

This thesis presents an optimization-based statistical estimation approach to find unknown trends in noisy data. A Bayesian framework is used to explicitly take into account prior information about the trends via trend models and constraints. The main focus is on convex formulation of the Bayesian estimation problem, which allows efficient computation of (globally) optimal estimates. There are two main parts of this thesis. The first part formulates trend estimation in systems described by known detailed models as a convex optimization problem. Statistically optimal estimates are then obtained by maximizing a concave log-likelihood function subject to convex constraints. We consider the problem of increasing problem dimension as more measurements become available, and introduce a moving horizon framework to enable recursive estimation of the unknown trend by solving a fixed size convex optimization problem at each horizon. We also present a distributed estimation framework, based on the dual decomposition method, for a system formed by a network of complex sensors with local (convex) estimation. Two specific applications of the convex optimization-based Bayesian estimation approach are described in the second part of the thesis. Batch estimation for parametric diagnostics in a flight control simulation of a space launch vehicle is shown to detect incipient fault trends despite the natural masking properties of feedback in the guidance and control loops. Moving horizon approach is used to estimate time varying fault parameters in a detailed nonlinear simulation model of an unmanned aerial vehicle. An excellent performance is demonstrated in the presence of winds and turbulence.

Fifty years of fat: news coverage of trends that predate obesity prevalence.

PubMed

Davis, Brennan; Wansink, Brian

2015-07-10

Obesity prevalence has risen in fifty years. While people generally expect media mentions of health risks like obesity prevalence to follow health risk trends, food consumption trends may precede obesity prevalence trends. Therefore, this research investigates whether media mentions of food predate obesity prevalence. Fifty years of non-advertising articles in the New York Times (and 17 years for the London Times) are coded for the mention of less healthy (5 salty and 5 sweet snacks) and healthy (5 fruits and 5 vegetables) food items by year and then associated with annual obesity prevalence in subsequent years. Time-series generalized linear models test whether food-related mentions predate or postdate obesity prevalence in each country. United States obesity prevalence is positively associated with New York Times mentions of sweet snacks (b = 55.2, CI = 42.4 to 68.1, p = .000) and negatively associated with mentions of fruits (b = -71.28, CI -91.5 to -51.1, p = .000) and vegetables (b = -13.6, CI = -17.5 to -9.6, p = .000). Similar results are found for the United Kingdom and The London Times. Importantly, the "obesity followed mentions" models are stronger than the "obesity preceded mentions" models. It may be possible to estimate a nation's future obesity prevalence (e.g., three years from now) based on how frequently national media mention sweet snacks (positively related) and vegetables or fruits (negatively related) today. This may provide public health officials and epidemiologists with new tools to more quickly assess the effectiveness of current obesity interventions based on what is mentioned in the media today.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.

An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2015-02-01

The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

Identification of Shifts and Trends in Hydrometric Data in Canada Based on Several Detection Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauzon, N.; Lence, B. J.

2004-05-01

This work proposes new detection tests based on the Kohonen neural network and on fuzzy c-means for the identification of shifts and trends in data sequences. Annual mean and maximum flow sequences are considered as application case, for they have often been considered for the study of shifts and trends in hydrologic data. In recent years, several studies for the identification of trends have been accomplished with North American hydrometric data, often making use of only one detection test. The assumption here is that one cannot rely on only one test, and consequently several are employed in this work. A total of eight tests are considered, four for shifts and four for trends. Four of these tests, two for shifts and two for trends, are conventional statistical tests that are regularly employed, while the other four are developed based on the Kohonen neural network and on fuzzy c-means. Data from a group of 40 hydrometric stations across Canada are assessed for the detection of shifts and trends in time periods of 30, 40 and 50 years. While the results obtained confirm the conclusions of previous studies performed on similar groups of data, they also indicate that each test may behave differently from one another. For example, one test may detect a trend in a given sequence while the other tests do not, or vice-versa. Thus, the strategy of using several tests ensures not only that they may confirm each others diagnostics but also may complement each other in the case of divergent diagnostics, with the possibility of improving the final conclusion on the detection of shifts and trends. Using artificial intelligence techniques for the construction of detection tests constitutes also a departure from the use of statistics, and a discussion in this work on complementary studies (i.e. detection on multivariate cases) highlights the possibility of enhanced performance by the artificial intelligence-based tests compared with conventional detection tests.

Evidence based library and information practice in Australia: defining skills and knowledge.

PubMed

Lewis, Suzanne

2011-06-01

This guest feature from Suzanne Lewis, a long-time advocate of evidence based library and information practice (EBLIP) in Australia, discusses a current trend within the movement that focuses on the skills, knowledge and competencies of health librarians. In particular, the feature describes three specific Australia-based research projects, on expert searching, indigenous health and future skills requirements for the health library workforce respectively, that exemplify this trend. These projects illustrate how the evidence base can be strengthened around the skills and knowledge required to deliver services that continue to meet the changing needs of health library and information users. © 2011 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2011 Health Libraries Group.

Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

PubMed

Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

2018-01-01

This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

Trends in Correlation-Based Pattern Recognition and Tracking in Forward-Looking Infrared Imagery

PubMed Central

Alam, Mohammad S.; Bhuiyan, Sharif M. A.

2014-01-01

In this paper, we review the recent trends and advancements on correlation-based pattern recognition and tracking in forward-looking infrared (FLIR) imagery. In particular, we discuss matched filter-based correlation techniques for target detection and tracking which are widely used for various real time applications. We analyze and present test results involving recently reported matched filters such as the maximum average correlation height (MACH) filter and its variants, and distance classifier correlation filter (DCCF) and its variants. Test results are presented for both single/multiple target detection and tracking using various real-life FLIR image sequences. PMID:25061840

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

PubMed

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Trends in Asset Structure between Not-for-Profit and Investor Owned Hospitals

PubMed Central

Song, Paula H.; Reiter, Kristin L.

2010-01-01

The delivery of health care is a capital intensive industry and thus hospital investment strategy continues to be an important area of interest for both health policy and research. Much attention has been given to hospitals’ capital investment policies with relatively little attention to investments in financial assets, which serve an important role in NFP hospitals. This study describes and analyzes trends in aggregate asset structure between NFP and IO hospitals during the post-capital based PPS implementation period, providing the first documentation of long-term trends in hospital investment. We find hospitals’ aggregate asset structure differs significantly based on ownership, size, and profitability. For both NFP and IO hospitals, financial securities have remained consistent over time, while fixed asset representation has declined in IO hospitals. PMID:20519429

Estimating Water Levels with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, E.; Russo, T. A.; Zentner, M.; May, J.; Nguy-Robertson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Reservoirs serve multiple functions and are vital for storage, electricity generation, and flood control. For many areas, traditional ground-based reservoir measurements may not be available or data dissemination may be problematic. Consistent monitoring of reservoir levels in data-poor areas can be achieved through remote sensing, providing information to researchers and the international community. Estimates of trends and relative reservoir volume can be used to identify water supply vulnerability, anticipate low power generation, and predict flood risk. Image processing with automated cloud computing provides opportunities to study multiple geographic areas in near real-time. We demonstrate the prediction capability of a cloud environment for identifying water trends at reservoirs in the US, and then apply the method to data-poor areas in North Korea, Iran, Azerbaijan, Zambia, and India. The Google Earth Engine cloud platform hosts remote sensing data and can be used to automate reservoir level estimation with multispectral imagery. We combine automated cloud-based analysis from Landsat image classification to identify reservoir surface area trends and radar altimetry to identify reservoir level trends. The study estimates water level trends using three years of data from four domestic reservoirs to validate the remote sensing method, and five foreign reservoirs to demonstrate the method application. We report correlations between ground-based reservoir level measurements in the US and our remote sensing methods, and correlations between the cloud analysis and altimetry data for reservoirs in data-poor areas. The availability of regular satellite imagery and an automated, near real-time application method provides the necessary datasets for further temporal analysis, reservoir modeling, and flood forecasting. All statements of fact, analysis, or opinion are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or any of its components or the U.S. Government

Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India. Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar

2017-10-01

Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).

Human Migration and Agricultural Expansion: An Impending Threat to the Maya Biosphere Reserve

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sader, Steven; Reining, Conard; Sever, Thomas L.; Soza, Carlos

1997-01-01

Evidence is presented of the current threats to the Maya Biosphere Reserve in northern Guatemala as derived through time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper observations and analysis. Estimates of deforestation rates and trends are examined for different management units within the reserve and buffer zones. The satellite imagery was used to quantify and monitor rates, patterns, and trends of forest clearing during a time period corresponding to new road construction and significant human migration into the newly accessible forest region. Satellite imagery is appropriate technology in a vast and remote tropical region where aerial photography and extensive field-based methods are not cost-effective and current, timely data is essential for establishing conservation priorities.

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garman, Steven L.; Schweiger, E. William; Manier, Daniel J.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count frequency also improved precision. These results suggest that the current distribution of count timings available in lek count databases such as that of Wyoming (conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise) can be used to estimate sage-grouse population trends without reducing precision or accuracy relative to trends from counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. However, only 10% of all Wyoming counts in our sample (1995−2014) were conducted 61−90 minutes after sunrise, and further increasing this percentage may still bias trend estimates because of declining lek attendance. 

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Holmgren, Amanda L.; Wilkerson, Robert L.; Siegel, Rodney B.; Kuntz, Robert C.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John R.; Huff, Mark H.

2014-01-01

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Worldwide patterns of ischemic heart disease mortality from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Severo, Milton; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

2014-01-01

The trends in the IHD mortality rates vary widely across countries, reflecting the heterogeneity in the variation of the exposure to the main risk factors and in the access to different management strategies among settings. We aimed to identify model-based patterns in the time trends in IHD mortality in 50 countries from the five continents, between 1980 and 2010. Mixed models were used to identify time trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) (age group 35+years; world standard population), all including random terms for intercept, slope, quadratic and cubic. Model-based clustering was used to identify the patterns. We identified five main patterns of IHD mortality trends in the last three decades, similar for men and women. Pattern 1 had the highest ASMR and pattern 2 exhibited the most pronounced decrease in ASMR during the entire study period. Pattern 3 was characterized by an initial increase in ASMR, followed by a sharp decline. Countries in pattern 4 had the lowest ASMR throughout the study period. It was further divided into patterns 4a (consistent decrease in ASMR throughout the period of analysis) and 4b (less pronounced declines and highest rates observed mostly between 1996 and 2004). There was no correspondence between the geographic or economical grouping of the analyzed countries and the patterns found in this study. Our study yielded a new framework for the description, interpretation and prediction of IHD mortality trends worldwide. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operating Room Efficiency before and after Entrance in a Benchmarking Program for Surgical Process Data.

PubMed

Pedron, Sara; Winter, Vera; Oppel, Eva-Maria; Bialas, Enno

2017-08-23

Operating room (OR) efficiency continues to be a high priority for hospitals. In this context the concept of benchmarking has gained increasing importance as a means to improve OR performance. The aim of this study was to investigate whether and how participation in a benchmarking and reporting program for surgical process data was associated with a change in OR efficiency, measured through raw utilization, turnover times, and first-case tardiness. The main analysis is based on panel data from 202 surgical departments in German hospitals, which were derived from the largest database for surgical process data in Germany. Panel regression modelling was applied. Results revealed no clear and univocal trend of participation in a benchmarking and reporting program for surgical process data. The largest trend was observed for first-case tardiness. In contrast to expectations, turnover times showed a generally increasing trend during participation. For raw utilization no clear and statistically significant trend could be evidenced. Subgroup analyses revealed differences in effects across different hospital types and department specialties. Participation in a benchmarking and reporting program and thus the availability of reliable, timely and detailed analysis tools to support the OR management seemed to be correlated especially with an increase in the timeliness of staff members regarding first-case starts. The increasing trend in turnover time revealed the absence of effective strategies to improve this aspect of OR efficiency in German hospitals and could have meaningful consequences for the medium- and long-run capacity planning in the OR.

Hot spots, hot moments and time-span of changes in drivers and their responses on carbon cycling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomelleri, E.; Forkel, M.; Fuchs, R.; Jung, M.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Weber, U.

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to provide a complete quantitative assessment of the annual to decadal variability, hotspots of changes and the temporal magnitude of regional trends and variability for the main drivers of carbon cycle like climate and land use and their responses for Europe. For this purpose we used an harmonized climatic data set (ERA Interim and WATCH) and an historical land-use change reconstruction (HILDAv1, Fuchs in prep.). Both the data sets cover the period 1900-2010 and have a 0.25 deg spatial resolution. As driver response we used two different empirically up-scaled GPP fields: the first (MTE) obtained by the application of model trees (Jung et al. 2009) and a second (LUE) based on a light use efficiency model (Tomelleri in prep.). Both the approaches are based on the up-scaling of Fluxnet observations. The response fields have monthly temporal resolution and are limited to the period 1982-2011. We estimated break-points in time series of driver and response variables based on the method of Bai and Perron (2003) to identify changes in trends. This method was implemented in Verbesselt et al. 2010 and applied by deJong et al. 2011 to detect phenological and abrupt changes and trends in vegetation activity based on satellite-derived vegetation index time series. The analysis of drivers and responses allowed to identify the dominant factors driving the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange. The synchronous analysis of climatic drivers and land use change allowed us to explain most of the temporal and spatial variability showing that in the regions and time period where the most land use change occurred the climatic drivers are not sufficient to explain trends and oscillation in carbon cycling. The comparison of our analysis for the up-scaling methods shows some agreement: we found inconsistency in the spatial and temporal patterns in regions where the Fluxnet network is less dense. This can be explained by the conceptual difference in the up-scaling methods: while one is on pixel basis (MTE) the other (LUE) is up-scaling model parameters by bioclimatic regions. Our study shows the value of up-scaling methods for understanding the spatial-temporal variability of carbon cycling and how these are a valuable tool for spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, the use of climatic drivers and land-use change demonstrated the need of taking natural and anthropogenic drivers into consideration for explaining trends and oscillations. Possibly a further analysis including detailed management practices for forestry and agriculture would help in explaining the remaining variance. References: Bai, J., Perron, P.: Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 2003. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., and Bondeau, A.: Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2009. Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., Culvenor, D.: Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment,114(1), 2010. de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., Bruin, S.: Trend changes in global greening and browning: contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change. Global Change Biology, 18, 2011.

Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, Don

2016-04-01

A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, D. P.

2016-02-01

A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

Trend-Residual Dual Modeling for Detection of Outliers in Low-Cost GPS Trajectories.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaojian; Cui, Tingting; Fu, Jianhong; Peng, Jianwei; Shan, Jie

2016-12-01

Low-cost GPS (receiver) has become a ubiquitous and integral part of our daily life. Despite noticeable advantages such as being cheap, small, light, and easy to use, its limited positioning accuracy devalues and hampers its wide applications for reliable mapping and analysis. Two conventional techniques to remove outliers in a GPS trajectory are thresholding and Kalman-based methods, which are difficult in selecting appropriate thresholds and modeling the trajectories. Moreover, they are insensitive to medium and small outliers, especially for low-sample-rate trajectories. This paper proposes a model-based GPS trajectory cleaner. Rather than examining speed and acceleration or assuming a pre-determined trajectory model, we first use cubic smooth spline to adaptively model the trend of the trajectory. The residuals, i.e., the differences between the trend and GPS measurements, are then further modeled by time series method. Outliers are detected by scoring the residuals at every GPS trajectory point. Comparing to the conventional procedures, the trend-residual dual modeling approach has the following features: (a) it is able to model trajectories and detect outliers adaptively; (b) only one critical value for outlier scores needs to be set; (c) it is able to robustly detect unapparent outliers; and (d) it is effective in cleaning outliers for GPS trajectories with low sample rates. Tests are carried out on three real-world GPS trajectories datasets. The evaluation demonstrates an average of 9.27 times better performance in outlier detection for GPS trajectories than thresholding and Kalman-based techniques.

Secular trends and smoke-free policy development in rural Kentucky

PubMed Central

Fallin, Amanda; Parker, Lindsay; Lindgreen, Janine; Riker, Carol; Kercsmar, Sarah; Hahn, Ellen J.

2011-01-01

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and pulmonary disorders. Smoke-free policies are the most effective way to prevent exposure to SHS. A 5-year community-based randomized control trial (RCT) is in progress to assess factors associated with smoke-free policy development in rural communities. Considering secular trends is critical when conducting community-based RCTs as they may threaten the internal validity of the study. For the purposes of this paper, secular trends are defined as patterns or recurring events that are not directly related to smoke-free policy but have the potential to influence policy development. There are no established protocols to monitor secular trends in the study of smoke-free policy in rural communities. The purpose of this paper is to (i) describe the development of a protocol to identify and monitor secular trends that may threaten the internal validity of a community-based RCT to promote smoke-free policy development and (ii) describe secular trends identified in the first 2 years of the RCT. The sample includes 854 secular events captured from media outlets covering the 40 study counties over the first 2 years of the RCT. Of these 854 events, there were 281 secular events in Year 1 and 573 in Year 2. This paper focuses on five specific categories: ‘tobacco use and cessation activities’, ‘farming’, ‘economics’, ‘city/county infrastructure’ and ‘wellness’. This protocol is a feasible yet time-intensive method of identifying events that may threaten the internal validity of a community-based RCT. PMID:21558440

Statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data for persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere at 20 monitoring stations broadly indicates declining concentrations.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Hung, Hayley; Cousins, Ian T

2014-11-04

During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere have been monitored at multiple stations worldwide. We used three statistical methods to analyze a total of 748 time series of selected POPs in the atmosphere to determine if there are statistically significant reductions in levels of POPs that have had control actions enacted to restrict or eliminate manufacture, use and emissions. Significant decreasing trends were identified in 560 (75%) of the 748 time series collected from the Arctic, North America, and Europe, indicating that the atmospheric concentrations of these POPs are generally decreasing, consistent with the overall effectiveness of emission control actions. Statistically significant trends in synthetic time series could be reliably identified with the improved Mann-Kendall (iMK) test and the digital filtration (DF) technique in time series longer than 5 years. The temporal trends of new (or emerging) POPs in the atmosphere are often unclear because time series are too short. A statistical detrending method based on the iMK test was not able to identify abrupt changes in the rates of decline of atmospheric POP concentrations encoded into synthetic time series.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-09-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25-100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna

2017-01-01

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Performance Support in Internet Time: The State of the Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gery, Gloria; Malcolm, Stan; Cichelli, Janet; Christensen, Hal; Raybould, Barry; Rosenberg, Marc J.

2000-01-01

Relates a discussion held via teleconference that addressed trends relating to performance support. Topics include computer-based training versus performance support; knowledge management; Internet and Web-based applications; dynamics and human activities; enterprise application integration; intrinsic performance support; and future possibilities.…

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.; Sheavly, S.B.; Rugg, D.J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2010-01-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. ?? 2010.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007.

PubMed

Ribic, Christine A; Sheavly, Seba B; Rugg, David J; Erdmann, Eric S

2010-08-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Variability of differences between two approaches for determining ground-water discharge and pumpage, including effects of time trends, Lower Arkansas River Basin, southeastern Colorado, 1998-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Edelmann, Patrick; Dash, Russell G.

2005-01-01

In the mid-1990s, the Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR) adopted rules governing measurement of tributary ground-water pumpage for the Arkansas River Basin. The rules allowed ground-water pumpage to be determined using one of two approaches?power conversion coefficient (PCC) or totalizing flowmeters (TFM). In addition, the rules allowed a PCC to be applied to the electrical power usage up to 4 years in the future to estimate ground-water pumpage. As a result of concerns about potential errors in applying the PCC approach forward in time, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with CDWR and Colorado Water Conservation Board, to evaluate the variability in differences in pumpage between the two approaches, including the effects of time trends. This report compared measured ground-water pumpage using TFMs to computed ground-water pumpage using PCCs by developing statistical models of relations between explanatory variables, such as site, time, and pumping water level, and dependent variables, which are based on discharge, PCC, and pumpage. When differences in pumpage (diffP) were computed using PCC measurements and power consumption for the same year (1998-2002), the median diffP, depending on the year, ranged from +0.1 to -2.9 percent; the median diffP for the entire period was -1.5 percent. However, when diffP was computed using PCC measurements applied to the next year's power consumption, the median diffP was -0.3 percent; and when PCC measurements were applied 2, 3, or 4 years into the future, median diffPs were +1.8 percent for a 2-year forward lag and +5.3 percent for a 4-year forward lag, indicating that pumpage computed with the PCC approach, as generally applied under the ground-water pumpage measurement rules by CDWR, tended to overestimate pumpage as compared to pumpage using TFMs when PCC measurement was applied to future years of measured power consumption. Analyses were done to better understand the causes of the time trend; an estimate of the overall trend with time (uncorrected for pumping water-level changes) yielded a trend of about 2.2 percent per lag year for diffP. A separate analysis that incorporated a surface-water diversion term in the statistical model rendered the time-trend term insignificant, indicating that the time trend in the models served as a surrogate for other variables, some of which reflect underlying hydrologic conditions. A more precise explanation of the potential causes of the time trend was not obtained with the available data. However, the model results with the surface-water diversion term indicate that much of the trend of 2.2 percent per lag year in diffP resulted from applying a PCC to estimate pumpage under hydrologic conditions different from those under which the PCC was measured. Although there is no evidence to conclude that the upward time trend determined in the data for this 5-year period would hold in the future, historical static ground-water levels in the study area generally have exhibited small variations over multidecadal time scales. Therefore, the approximately 2 percent per lag year trend determined in these data is expected to be a reasonable guideline for estimating potential errors in the PCC approach resulting from temporally varying hydrologic conditions between time of PCC measurement and pumpage estimation. Comparisons also were made between total, or aggregated, pumpage for a network of wells as computed by the PCC approach and the TFM approach. For 100 wells and a lag of 4 years between PCC measurement and pumpage estimation, there was a 95-percent probability that the difference between total network pumpage measured by the PCC approach and that measured using a TFM would be between 5.2 and 14.4 percent. These estimates were based on a bias of 2.2 percent per lag year estimated for the period 1998-2002 during which hydrologic conditions were known to have changed. Using the same assumptions, the estimated d

Enhancing a Computer-Based Testing Environment with Optimum Item Response Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delen, Erhan

2015-01-01

As technology has become more advanced and accessible in instructional settings, there has been an upward trend in computer-based testing in the last decades. The present experimental study examines students' behaviors during computer-based testing in two different conditions and explores how these conditions affect the test results. Results…

Trends in Performance-Based Funding. Data Points: Volume 5, Issue 19

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Association of Community Colleges, 2017

2017-01-01

States' use of postsecondary performance-based funding is intended to encourage colleges to improve student outcomes. The model relies on indicators such as course completion, time to degree, transfer rates, number of credentials awarded and the number of low-income and minority graduates served. Currently, 21 states use performance-based funding…

Bayesian spatiotemporal crash frequency models with mixture components for space-time interactions.

PubMed

Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Zhang, Yongping; Cao, Zhong

2018-03-01

The traffic safety research has developed spatiotemporal models to explore the variations in the spatial pattern of crash risk over time. Many studies observed notable benefits associated with the inclusion of spatial and temporal correlation and their interactions. However, the safety literature lacks sufficient research for the comparison of different temporal treatments and their interaction with spatial component. This study developed four spatiotemporal models with varying complexity due to the different temporal treatments such as (I) linear time trend; (II) quadratic time trend; (III) Autoregressive-1 (AR-1); and (IV) time adjacency. Moreover, the study introduced a flexible two-component mixture for the space-time interaction which allows greater flexibility compared to the traditional linear space-time interaction. The mixture component allows the accommodation of global space-time interaction as well as the departures from the overall spatial and temporal risk patterns. This study performed a comprehensive assessment of mixture models based on the diverse criteria pertaining to goodness-of-fit, cross-validation and evaluation based on in-sample data for predictive accuracy of crash estimates. The assessment of model performance in terms of goodness-of-fit clearly established the superiority of the time-adjacency specification which was evidently more complex due to the addition of information borrowed from neighboring years, but this addition of parameters allowed significant advantage at posterior deviance which subsequently benefited overall fit to crash data. The Base models were also developed to study the comparison between the proposed mixture and traditional space-time components for each temporal model. The mixture models consistently outperformed the corresponding Base models due to the advantages of much lower deviance. For cross-validation comparison of predictive accuracy, linear time trend model was adjudged the best as it recorded the highest value of log pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML). Four other evaluation criteria were considered for typical validation using the same data for model development. Under each criterion, observed crash counts were compared with three types of data containing Bayesian estimated, normal predicted, and model replicated ones. The linear model again performed the best in most scenarios except one case of using model replicated data and two cases involving prediction without including random effects. These phenomena indicated the mediocre performance of linear trend when random effects were excluded for evaluation. This might be due to the flexible mixture space-time interaction which can efficiently absorb the residual variability escaping from the predictable part of the model. The comparison of Base and mixture models in terms of prediction accuracy further bolstered the superiority of the mixture models as the mixture ones generated more precise estimated crash counts across all four models, suggesting that the advantages associated with mixture component at model fit were transferable to prediction accuracy. Finally, the residual analysis demonstrated the consistently superior performance of random effect models which validates the importance of incorporating the correlation structures to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Per capita alcohol consumption in Australia: will the real trend please step forward?

PubMed

Chikritzhs, Tanya N; Allsop, Steve J; Moodie, A Rob; Hall, Wayne D

2010-11-15

To estimate the national trend in per capita consumption (PCC) of alcohol for Australians aged 15 years and older for the financial years 1990-91 to 2008-09. With the use of data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics' catalogues and World Advertising Research Centre reports, three alternative series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol for the past 20 years (1990-91 to 2008-09) were estimated based on different assumptions about the alcohol content of wine. For the "old" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have been stable over time. For the "new" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have increased once in 2004-05 and then to have remained stable to 2008-09. For the "adjusted" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have gradually increased over time, beginning in 1998-99. Linear trend analysis was applied to identify significant trends. National trend in annual PCC of alcohol 1990-91 to 2008-09. The new and adjusted series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol showed increasing trends; the old series was stable. Until recently, official national annual totals of PCC of alcohol were underestimated and led to the mistaken impression that levels of alcohol consumption had been stable since the early 1990s. In fact, Australia's total PCC has been increasing significantly over time because of a gradual increase in the alcohol content and market share of wine and is now at one of its highest points since 1991-92. This new information is consistent with evidence of increasing alcohol-related harm and highlights the need for timely and accurate data on alcohol sales and harms across Australia.

Haemoglobin recovery among HIV-1 infected patients on zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy and other regimens in north-central Nigeria.

PubMed

Parrish, Deidra D; Blevins, Meridith; Megazzini, Karen M; Shepherd, Bryan E; Mohammed, Mukhtar Y; Wester, C William; Vermund, Sten H; Aliyu, Muktar H

2014-04-01

We conducted a study to assess trends in haemoglobin recovery among HIV-infected patients initiated on zidovudine-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) stratified by baseline haemoglobin level. Haemoglobin data from non-pregnant adult patients initiating cART in rural north-central Nigeria between June 2009 and May 2011 were analysed using a linear mixed effects model to assess the interaction between time, zidovudine-containing regimen and baseline haemoglobin level on the outcome of subsequent haemoglobin level. Best-fit curves were created for baseline haemoglobin in the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles. We included 313 patients with 736 measures of haemoglobin in the analysis (239 on zidovudine and 74 on non-zidovudine-containing regimens). Median haemoglobin increased over time in both groups, with differences in haemoglobin response over time related to baseline haemoglobin levels and zidovudine use (p = 0.003). The groups of patients on zidovudine at the 10th and 90th percentiles had downward sloping curves while all other groups had upward trending haemoglobin levels. Although haemoglobin levels increased overall for patients on zidovudine-containing regimens, for those in the 10th and 90th percentiles haemoglobin levels trended downward over time. These results have implications for decisions regarding when to initiate, switch from or avoid the use of zidovudine.

Sports participation increased in Spain: a population-based time trend study of 21 381 adults in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010.

PubMed

Palacios-Ceña, Domingo; Fernandez-de-Las-Peñas, Cesar; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Garcia, Rodrigo; Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar

2012-12-01

To assess the trend in prevalence of Spanish adults who engaged in sports activities from 2000 to 2010. Retrospective analysis of three population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted on a representative sample of Spanish adults: 2000 (N=5160), 2005 (N=8170) and 2010 (N=8925). The overall prevalence of sport-active men increased from 45.8% to 52.12% between 2000 and 2010. Among women the prevalence also increased from 27.26% to 33.27% (adjusted OR 1.03 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04). A significant decrease in the prevalence of sport-active subjects was found as the age increases. Adjusted time trends analysis showed that the prevalence of sport-active women and men increased over time in all age groups, with exception of women aged 15-25 years (adjusted OR 0.99, 0.97 to 1.01). Higher educational level was associated with more sport activity. The first reason for not practising sport was 'I have no time due to working or studying'. Less than 10% of women and men reported health problems as the reason for not practising any sport. Sports participation in Spain has increased between 2000 and 2010 among young-aged and middle-aged adults and decreased among older people. Women showed lower prevalence of sport activity as compared to men.

Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.; Lombardo, Federico

2018-01-01

The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further compromising the attempt to draw conclusions about trends spanning the period of records. Moreover, even though adjusting procedures accounting for correlation have been developed, some of them are insufficient or are applied only to some tests, while some others are theoretically flawed but still widely applied. In particular, using 250 unimpacted stream flow time series across the conterminous United States (CONUS), we show that the test results can dramatically change if the sequences of annual values are reproduced starting from daily stream flow records, whose larger sizes enable a more reliable assessment of the correlation structures.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-09-17

To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Design Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Setting Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. Population People aged 15 or above. Main outcome measures Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. Results There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman’s rs=0.48). Conclusions After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss. PMID:24046155

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

First Marriages in the United States: Data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth. National Health Statistics Reports. Number 49

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Copen, Casey E.; Daniels, Kimberly; Vespa, Jonathan; Mosher, William D.

2012-01-01

Objectives: This report shows trends and group differences in current marital status, with a focus on first marriages among women and men aged 15-44 years in the United States. Trends and group differences in the timing and duration of first marriages are also discussed. These data are based on the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth…

Incidence and time trends of childhood lymphomas: findings from 14 Southern and Eastern European cancer registries and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results, USA.

PubMed

Georgakis, Marios K; Karalexi, Maria A; Agius, Domenic; Antunes, Luis; Bastos, Joana; Coza, Daniela; Demetriou, Anna; Dimitrova, Nadya; Eser, Sultan; Florea, Margareta; Ryzhov, Anton; Sekerija, Mario; Žagar, Tina; Zborovskaya, Anna; Zivkovic, Snezana; Bouka, Evdoxia; Kanavidis, Prodromos; Dana, Helen; Hatzipantelis, Emmanuel; Kourti, Maria; Moschovi, Maria; Polychronopoulou, Sophia; Stiakaki, Eftichia; Kantzanou, Μaria; Pourtsidis, Apostolos; Petridou, Eleni Th

2016-11-01

To describe epidemiologic patterns of childhood (0-14 years) lymphomas in the Southern and Eastern European (SEE) region in comparison with the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER), USA, and explore tentative discrepancies. Childhood lymphomas were retrieved from 14 SEE registries (n = 4,702) and SEER (n = 4,416), diagnosed during 1990-2014; incidence rates were estimated and time trends were evaluated. Overall age-adjusted incidence rate was higher in SEE (16.9/10 6 ) compared to SEER (13.6/10 6 ), because of a higher incidence of Hodgkin (HL, 7.5/10 6 vs. 5.1/10 6 ) and Burkitt lymphoma (BL, 3.1 vs. 2.3/10 6 ), whereas the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) was overall identical (5.9/10 6 vs. 5.8/10 6 ), albeit variable among SEE. Incidence increased with age, except for BL which peaked at 4 years; HL in SEE also showed an early male-specific peak at 4 years. The male preponderance was more pronounced for BL and attenuated with increasing age for HL. Increasing trends were noted in SEER for total lymphomas and NHL, and was marginal for HL, as contrasted to the decreasing HL and NHL trends generally observed in SEE registries, with the exception of increasing HL incidence in Portugal; of note, BL incidence trend followed a male-specific increasing trend in SEE. Registry-based data reveal variable patterns and time trends of childhood lymphomas in SEE and SEER during the last decades, possibly reflecting diverse levels of socioeconomic development of the populations in the respective areas; optimization of registration process may allow further exploration of molecular characteristics of disease subtypes.

Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-02-01

The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly `no trend' results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981-2016 rather than for 1956-2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Multimodal Pilot Behavior in Multi-Axis Tracking Tasks with Time-Varying Motion Cueing Gains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaal, P. M. T; Pool, D. M.

2014-01-01

In a large number of motion-base simulators, adaptive motion filters are utilized to maximize the use of the available motion envelope of the motion system. However, not much is known about how the time-varying characteristics of such adaptive filters affect pilots when performing manual aircraft control. This paper presents the results of a study investigating the effects of time-varying motion filter gains on pilot control behavior and performance. An experiment was performed in a motion-base simulator where participants performed a simultaneous roll and pitch tracking task, while the roll and/or pitch motion filter gains changed over time. Results indicate that performance increases over time with increasing motion gains. This increase is a result of a time-varying adaptation of pilots' equalization dynamics, characterized by increased visual and motion response gains and decreased visual lead time constants. Opposite trends are found for decreasing motion filter gains. Even though the trends in both controlled axes are found to be largely the same, effects are less significant in roll. In addition, results indicate minor cross-coupling effects between pitch and roll, where a cueing variation in one axis affects the behavior adopted in the other axis.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

PubMed

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend.

PubMed

Bryhn, Andreas C; Dimberg, Peter H

2011-04-28

Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r(2) and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r(2) ≥ 0.65 at p ≤ 0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Trends in asset structure between not-for-profit and investor-owned hospitals.

PubMed

Song, Paula H; Reiter, Kristin L

2010-12-01

The delivery of health care is a capital-intensive industry, and thus, hospital investment strategy continues to be an important area of interest for both health policy and research. Much attention has been given to hospitals' capital investment policies with relatively little attention to investments in financial assets, which serve an important role in not-for-profit (NFP) hospitals. This study describes and analyzes trends in aggregate asset structure between NFP and investor-owned (IO) hospitals during the post-capital-based prospective payment system implementation period, providing the first documentation of long-term trends in hospital investment. The authors find hospitals' aggregate asset structure differs significantly based on ownership, size, and profitability. For both NFP and IO hospitals, financial securities have remained consistent over time, while fixed asset representation has declined in IO hospitals.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

Web-Based Reading Annotation System with an Attention-Based Self-Regulated Learning Mechanism for Promoting Reading Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Chih-Ming; Huang, Sheng-Hui

2014-01-01

Due to the rapid development of information technology, web-based learning has become a dominant trend. That is, learners can often learn anytime and anywhere without being restricted by time and space. Autonomic learning primarily occurs in web-based learning environments, and self-regulated learning (SRL) is key to autonomic learning…

Recent time trends in cancer of the oesophagus and gastric cardia in the region of Calvados in France, 1978-1995: a population based study.

PubMed

Desoubeaux, N; Le Prieur, A; Launoy, G; Maurel, J; Lefevre, H; Guillois, J M; Gignoux, M

1999-12-01

The incidence of oesophageal cancer differs from country to country, and even between areas of the same country. Many studies in recent years have shown an upward trend of a particular histologic type: adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus. It is difficult to precisely locate adenocarcinomas situated at the junction between the oesophagus and the gastric cardia. Clear criteria to define and classify such tumours are essential in order to analyse their evolution. The present study describes the changing incidence of cancers of the oesophagus and gastric cardia according to histologic type from 1978 to 1995 in Calvados, the highest-risk French region with two different topographic classifications of adenocarcinomas: one based on Misumi's criteria and the other based on local extension of cancer. In total, 1835 cancers of the oesophagus and gastric cardia were diagnosed in this period. Incidence rates for oesophageal and gastric cardia cancers standardized on the world population were 24.4/10(5) and 2.4/10(5) in men and 1.4/10(5) and 0.4/10(5) in women, respectively. The time trend in the incidence of squamous cell cancers was downward in men -0.74 (P < 10(-6)) and stable in women +0.04 (P = 0.65). Regarding adenocarcinomas, with the classification based on Misumi's categories, there was a slight but significant upward trend for oesophageal adenocarcinoma in men [mean annual variation of +0.09 (P < 10(-5))] while the tendency was downward and significant for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma [mean annual variation of -0.09 (P < 10(-4))]. When adenocarcinomas of the oesophagus and those of the gastric cardia with oesophageal involvement are taken together (second classification), there was an upward trend which was not significant in men and was significant in women. There was no such upward trend in adenocarcinomas limited to the gastric cardia and/or involving the stomach. Because of the difficulties in determining accurate localization routinely in population-based studies, it seems sensible to preclude classification biases in recommending the grouping together of gastric cardia adenocarcinomas with oesophageal adenocarcinomas, at least with those among the latter occurring in the lower third of the oesophagus.

Regional Landslide Mapping Aided by Automated Classification of SqueeSAR™ Time Series (Northern Apennines, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannacone, J.; Berti, M.; Allievi, J.; Del Conte, S.; Corsini, A.

2013-12-01

Space borne InSAR has proven to be very valuable for landslides detection. In particular, extremely slow landslides (Cruden and Varnes, 1996) can be now clearly identified, thanks to the millimetric precision reached by recent multi-interferometric algorithms. The typical approach in radar interpretation for landslides mapping is based on average annual velocity of the deformation which is calculated over the entire times series. The Hotspot and Cluster Analysis (Lu et al., 2012) and the PSI-based matrix approach (Cigna et al., 2013) are examples of landslides mapping techniques based on average annual velocities. However, slope movements can be affected by non-linear deformation trends, (i.e. reactivation of dormant landslides, deceleration due to natural or man-made slope stabilization, seasonal activity, etc). Therefore, analyzing deformation time series is crucial in order to fully characterize slope dynamics. While this is relatively simple to be carried out manually when dealing with small dataset, the time series analysis over regional scale dataset requires automated classification procedures. Berti et al. (2013) developed an automatic procedure for the analysis of InSAR time series based on a sequence of statistical tests. The analysis allows to classify the time series into six distinctive target trends (0=uncorrelated; 1=linear; 2=quadratic; 3=bilinear; 4=discontinuous without constant velocity; 5=discontinuous with change in velocity) which are likely to represent different slope processes. The analysis also provides a series of descriptive parameters which can be used to characterize the temporal changes of ground motion. All the classification algorithms were integrated into a Graphical User Interface called PSTime. We investigated an area of about 2000 km2 in the Northern Apennines of Italy by using SqueeSAR™ algorithm (Ferretti et al., 2011). Two Radarsat-1 data stack, comprising of 112 scenes in descending orbit and 124 scenes in ascending orbit, were processed. The time coverage lasts from April 2003 to November 2012, with an average temporal frequency of 1 scene/month. Radar interpretation has been carried out by considering average annual velocities as well as acceleration/deceleration trends evidenced by PSTime. Altogether, from ascending and descending geometries respectively, this approach allowed detecting of 115 and 112 potential landslides on the basis of average displacement rate and 77 and 79 landslides on the basis of acceleration trends. In conclusion, time series analysis resulted to be very valuable for landslide mapping. In particular it highlighted areas with marked acceleration in a specific period in time while still being affected by low average annual velocity over the entire analysis period. On the other hand, even in areas with high average annual velocity, time series analysis was of primary importance to characterize the slope dynamics in terms of acceleration events.

Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Julie Rowland

2015-01-01

For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert; Yoo, Jung-Moon

1998-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA satellites contain small systematic errors. Some of these errors are time-dependent and some are time-independent. Small errors in Ch 2 data of successive satellites arise from calibration differences. Also, successive NOAA satellites tend to have different Local Equatorial Crossing Times (LECT), which introduce differences in Ch 2 data due to the diurnal cycle. These two sources of systematic error are largely time independent. However, because of atmospheric drag, there can be a drift in the LECT of a given satellite, which introduces time-dependent systematic errors. One of these errors is due to the progressive chance in the diurnal cycle and the other is due to associated chances in instrument heating by the sun. In order to infer global temperature trend from the these MSU data, we have eliminated explicitly the time-independent systematic errors. Both of the time-dependent errors cannot be assessed from each satellite. For this reason, their cumulative effect on the global temperature trend is evaluated implicitly. Christy et al. (1998) (CSL). based on their method of analysis of the MSU Ch 2 data, infer a global temperature cooling trend (-0.046 K per decade) from 1979 to 1997, although their near nadir measurements yield near zero trend (0.003 K/decade). Utilising an independent method of analysis, we infer global temperature warmed by 0.12 +/- 0.06 C per decade from the observations of the MSU Ch 2 during the period 1980 to 1997.

Assessment of groundwater level estimation uncertainty using sequential Gaussian simulation and Bayesian bootstrapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil; Hristopulos, Dionissios

2015-04-01

Space-time geostatistical approaches can improve the reliability of dynamic groundwater level models in areas with limited spatial and temporal data. Space-time residual Kriging (STRK) is a reliable method for spatiotemporal interpolation that can incorporate auxiliary information. The method usually leads to an underestimation of the prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of spatiotemporal models is usually estimated by determining the space-time Kriging variance or by means of cross validation analysis. For de-trended data the former is not usually applied when complex spatiotemporal trend functions are assigned. A Bayesian approach based on the bootstrap idea and sequential Gaussian simulation are employed to determine the uncertainty of the spatiotemporal model (trend and covariance) parameters. These stochastic modelling approaches produce multiple realizations, rank the prediction results on the basis of specified criteria and capture the range of the uncertainty. The correlation of the spatiotemporal residuals is modeled using a non-separable space-time variogram based on the Spartan covariance family (Hristopulos and Elogne 2007, Varouchakis and Hristopulos 2013). We apply these simulation methods to investigate the uncertainty of groundwater level variations. The available dataset consists of bi-annual (dry and wet hydrological period) groundwater level measurements in 15 monitoring locations for the time period 1981 to 2010. The space-time trend function is approximated using a physical law that governs the groundwater flow in the aquifer in the presence of pumping. The main objective of this research is to compare the performance of two simulation methods for prediction uncertainty estimation. In addition, we investigate the performance of the Spartan spatiotemporal covariance function for spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis. Hristopulos, D.T. and Elogne, S.N. 2007. Analytic properties and covariance functions for a new class of generalized Gibbs random fields. IΕΕΕ Transactions on Information Theory, 53:4667-4467. Varouchakis, E.A. and Hristopulos, D.T. 2013. Improvement of groundwater level prediction in sparsely gauged basins using physical laws and local geographic features as auxiliary variables. Advances in Water Resources, 52:34-49. Research supported by the project SPARTA 1591: "Development of Space-Time Random Fields based on Local Interaction Models and Applications in the Processing of Spatiotemporal Datasets". "SPARTA" is implemented under the "ARISTEIA" Action of the operational programme Education and Lifelong Learning and is co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and National Resources.

Towards homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration for structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolna, Konrad; Dao, Phong B.; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Barszcz, Tomasz

2016-06-01

The paper presents the homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration. The method leads to stable variances in nonlinear cointegration residuals. The adapted Breusch-Pagan test procedure is developed to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity (or homoscedasticity) in the cointegration residuals obtained from the nonlinear cointegration analysis. Three different time series - i.e. one with a nonlinear quadratic deterministic trend, simulated vibration data and experimental wind turbine data - are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The proposed approach can be used for effective removal of nonlinear trends from various types of data and for reliable structural damage detection based on data that are corrupted by environmental and/or operational nonlinear trends.

Hydrologic and Undernourisment Trends In Food Insecurity Hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Mishra, V.; Davenport, F.

2011-12-01

As food prices rise, per capita harvested area diminishes and competition for limited resources mounts, the number of undernourished people has risen to more than a billion people. In this study, we target 80 potentially food insecure countries, examining hydrologic and undernourishment trends. For each country, primary cultivation areas are identified, and hydrologic variables extracted from simulations based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model driven with the Princeton University climate data. Trends in runoff, soil moisture, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and temperature are evaluated. In addition to precipitation driven-aridity, the analysis also evaluates possible temperature-related shifts in sensible versus latent heat fluxes during energy-limited portions of the growing seasons. Changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are also investigated. The undernourishment trends are explored using the FAO percent under-nourished formulation, which determines the fraction of the population falling below a critical caloric threshold by using national food balance sheets (quantity) and a caloric distribution based on economic equality. Trends in quantity and equity, and their effects on undernourishment are evaluated, and vulnerability to price volatility quantified. Finally, a sub-set of countries facing both hydrologic declines and undernourishment increases are identified as food security hotspots.

20 Years of Total and Tropical Ozone Time Series Based on European Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loyola, D. G.; Heue, K. P.; Coldewey-Egbers, M.

2016-12-01

Ozone is an important trace gas in the atmosphere, while the stratospheric ozone layer protects the earth surface from the incident UV radiation, the tropospheric ozone acts as green house gas and causes health damages as well as crop loss. The total ozone column is dominated by the stratospheric column, the tropospheric columns only contributes about 10% to the total column.The ozone column data from the European satellite instruments GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A and GOME-2B are available within the ESA Climate Change Initiative project with a high degree of inter-sensor consistency. The tropospheric ozone columns are based on the convective cloud differential algorithm. The datasets encompass a period of more than 20 years between 1995 and 2015, for the trend analysis the data sets were harmonized relative to one of the instruments. For the tropics we found an increase in the tropospheric ozone column of 0.75 ± 0.12 DU decade^{-1} with local variations between 1.8 and -0.8. The largest trends were observed over southern Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. A seasonal trend analysis led to the assumption that the increase is caused by additional forest fires.The trend for the total column was not that certain, based on model predicted trend data and the measurement uncertainty we estimated that another 10 to 15 years of observations will be required to observe a statistical significant trend. In the mid latitudes the trends are currently hidden in the large variability and for the tropics the modelled trends are low. Also the possibility of diverging trends at different altitudes must be considered; an increase in the tropospheric ozone might be accompanied by decreasing stratospheric ozone.The European satellite data record will be extended over the next two decades with the atmospheric satellite missions Sentinel 5 Precursor (launch end of 2016), Sentinel 4 and Sentinel 5.

Monitoring Springs in the Mojave Desert Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study, based on Landsat satellite data was to characterize variations and trends over 30 consecutive years (1985-2016) in perennial vegetation green cover at over 400 confirmed Mojave Desert spring locations. These springs were surveyed between in 2015 and 2016 on lands managed in California by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and on several land trusts within the Barstow, Needles, and Ridgecrest BLM Field Offices. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from July Landsat images was computed at each spring location and a trend model was first fit to the multi-year NDVI time series using least squares linear regression.Â

Striking trends in the incidence of health problems in The Netherlands (2002-05). Findings from a new strategy for surveillance in general practice.

PubMed

Biermans, Marion C J; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Verheij, Robert A; de Bakker, Dinny H; de Vries Robbé, Pieter F; Zielhuis, Gerhard A

2009-06-01

This study aimed to detect striking trends based on a new strategy for monitoring public health. We used data over 4 years from electronic medical records of a large, nationally representative network of general practices. Episodes were either directly recorded by general practitioners (GPs) or were constructed using a new record linkage method (EPICON). The episodes were used to estimate raw morbidity rates for all codes of the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). Multilevel Poisson regression models were used to analyse the trend over time for 15 health problems that showed an obvious change over time. Based on these models, we calculated adjusted incidence rates corrected for clustering, sex and age. During 2002-05, both men and women increasingly consulted the GP because of concern about a drug reaction, a change in faeces/bowel movements and urination problems. Men showed an increase in consultations for prostate problems and venereal diseases. The incidence of chronic internal knee derangement decreased for both sexes. Women consulted their GP less frequently about sterilization and fear of being pregnant. The strategy developed proved to be useful to detect trends across a short period of time. Changes in the health care market, such as the increasing availability of over-the-counter drugs and various large advertising campaigns for medications may explain some of the findings. The increasing incidence of health problems in the urogenital area deserves attention as it could reflect increases in the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and urinary tract infections.

Shifts of Start and End of Season in Response to Air Temperature Variation Based on Gimms Dataset in Hyrcanian Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiapasha, K. H.; Darvishsefat, A. A.; Zargham, N.; Julien, Y.; Sobrino, J. A.; Nadi, M.

2017-09-01

Climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges in the world and forest as a dynamic phenomenon is influenced by environmental changes. The Hyrcanian forests is a unique natural heritage of global importance and we need monitoring this region. The objective of this study was to detect start and end of season trends in Hyrcanian forests of Iran based on biweekly GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI3g in the period 1981-2012. In order to find response of vegetation activity to local temperature variations, we used air temperature provided from I.R. Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). At the first step in order to remove the existing gap from the original time series, the iterative Interpolation for Data Reconstruction (IDR) model was applied to GIMMS and temperature dataset. Then we applied significant Mann Kendall test to determine significant trend for each pixel of GIMMS and temperature datasets over the Hyrcanian forests. The results demonstrated that start and end of season (SOS & EOS respectively) derived from GIMMS3g NDVI time series increased by -0.16 and +0.41 days per year respectively. The trends derived from temperature time series indicated increasing trend in the whole of this region. Results of this study showed that global warming and its effect on growth and photosynthetic activity can increased the vegetation activity in our study area. Otherwise extension of the growing season, including an earlier start of the growing season, later autumn and higher rate of production increased NDVI value during the study period.

The method of trend analysis of parameters time series of gas-turbine engine state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvozdeva, I.; Myrhorod, V.; Derenh, Y.

2017-10-01

This research substantiates an approach to interval estimation of time series trend component. The well-known methods of spectral and trend analysis are used for multidimensional data arrays. The interval estimation of trend component is proposed for the time series whose autocorrelation matrix possesses a prevailing eigenvalue. The properties of time series autocorrelation matrix are identified.

A high resolution model of linear trend in mass variations from DMT-2: Added value of accounting for coloured noise in GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Hassan H.; Ditmar, Pavel; Inácio, Pedro; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian; Klees, Roland; Guo, Xiang; Guo, Jing; Sun, Yu; Liu, Xianglin; Zhao, Qile; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

We present a high resolution model of the linear trend in the Earth's mass variations based on DMT-2 (Delft Mass Transport model, release 2). DMT-2 was produced primarily from K-Band Ranging (KBR) data of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). It comprises a time series of monthly solutions complete to spherical harmonic degree 120. A novel feature in its production was the accurate computation and incorporation of stochastic properties of coloured noise when processing KBR data. The unconstrained DMT-2 monthly solutions are used to estimate the linear trend together with a bias, as well as annual and semi-annual sinusoidal terms. The linear term is further processed with an anisotropic Wiener filter, which uses full noise and signal covariance matrices. Given the fact that noise in an unconstrained model of the trend is reduced substantially as compared to monthly solutions, the Wiener filter associated with the trend is much less aggressive compared to a Wiener filter applied to monthly solutions. Consequently, the trend estimate shows an enhanced spatial resolution. It allows signals in relatively small water bodies, such as Aral sea and Ladoga lake, to be detected. Over the ice sheets, it allows for a clear identification of signals associated with some outlet glaciers or their groups. We compare the obtained trend estimate with the ones from the CSR-RL05 model using (i) the same approach based on monthly noise covariance matrices and (ii) a commonly-used approach based on the DDK-filtered monthly solutions. We use satellite altimetry data as independent control data. The comparison demonstrates a high spatial resolution of the DMT-2 linear trend. We link this to the usage of high-accuracy monthly noise covariance matrices, which is due to an accurate computation and incorporation of coloured noise when processing KBR data. A preliminary comparison of the linear trend based on DMT-2 with that computed from GSFC_global_mascons_v01 reveals, among other, a high concentration of the signal along the coast for both models in areas like the ice sheets, Gulf of Alaska, and Iceland.

Comparison of SMR, PMR, and PCMR in a cohort of union members potentially exposed to diesel exhaust emissions.

PubMed Central

Wong, O; Morgan, R W; Kheifets, L; Larson, S R

1985-01-01

A comparison of cause specific standarised mortality ratios (SMRs) and proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs) or proportionate cancer mortality ratios (PCMRs) was made based on the mortality experience of a cohort of 34 156 members of a heavy equipment operators union. Two types of PMRs or PCMRs were used in the comparison: those based on all deaths and those based on deaths known to the union only. The comparison indicated that, for the entire cohort, both types of PMRs were poor indicators for cancer risk and produced a large number of false positives. On the other hand, PCMRs appeared to be better than PMRs for assessing the direction of site specific cancer risk, but they tended to overstate the magnitude of risk. Analysis by duration of union membership or latency indicated that PMRs or PCMRs based on deaths known to the union tended to overestimate the risk of lung cancer by disproportionately larger amounts in groups with shorter time than in groups with longer time. This differential bias had the net effect of reducing the gradient of any trend or eliminating the trend entirely. In conclusion, PMR or PCMR, based on reasonably sufficient death ascertainment, has a certain usefulness in generating hypotheses, but they are not useful or reliable in measuring the magnitude of risk or in detecting trends in dose response analysis. No conclusion should be drawn from either PMR or PCMR. PMID:2410011

Holocene Faunal Trends in West Siberia and Their Causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gashev, S. N.; Aleshina, A. O.; Zuban, I. A.; Lupinos, M. Y.; Mardonova, L. B.; Mitropolskiy, M. G.; Selyukov, A. G.; Sorokina, N. V.; Stolbov, V. A.; Shapovalov, S. I.

2017-12-01

Based on an analysis of the transformation of vertebrate and invertebrate fauna of West Siberia in the Holocene, the classification and periodization of the main faunal trends are presented. Against the background of changing environmental conditions, the key regularities of the faunal dynamics, and the ways some species penetrate into the territory of the region and others disappear from the beginning of the Holocene to the present time have been indicated. Three global and four fluctuating trends are identified. The anthropogenic trend is ascertained separately. A conclusion is made about the prevailing causes of these changes, associated primarily with periodic climatic processes of different levels, determined by planetary geological and cosmic cycles. It is emphasized that, in the historical period, anthropogenic factors play a significant role in the regional faunal dynamics.

Limitations and challenges of EIT-based monitoring of stroke volume and pulmonary artery pressure.

PubMed

Braun, Fabian; Proença, Martin; Lemay, Mathieu; Bertschi, Mattia; Adler, Andy; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Solà, Josep

2018-01-30

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) shows potential for radiation-free and noninvasive hemodynamic monitoring. However, many factors degrade the accuracy and repeatability of these measurements. Our goal is to estimate the impact of this variability on the EIT-based monitoring of two important central hemodynamic parameters: stroke volume (SV) and pulmonary artery pressure (PAP). We performed simulations on a 4D ([Formula: see text]) bioimpedance model of a human volunteer to study the influence of four potential confounding factors (electrode belt displacement, electrode detachment, changes in hematocrit and lung air volume) on the performance of EIT-based SV and PAP estimation. Results were used to estimate how these factors affect the EIT measures of either absolute values or relative changes (i.e. trending). Our findings reveal that the absolute measurement of SV via EIT is very sensitive to electrode belt displacements and lung conductivity changes. Nonetheless, the trending ability of SV EIT might be a promising alternative. The timing-based measurement of PAP is more robust to lung conductivity changes but sensitive to longitudinal belt displacements at severe hypertensive levels and to rotational displacements (independent of the PAP level). We identify and quantify the challenges of EIT-based SV and PAP monitoring. Absolute SV via EIT is challenging, but trending is feasible, while both the absolute and trending of PAP via EIT are mostly impaired by belt displacements.

Paleobotanical Evidence for Coupling of Temperature and pCO2 during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. Y.; Greenwood, D. R.; Basinger, J. F.

2009-12-01

The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) was the warmest period of the Cenozoic, indicated by multiple proxy mean annual temperature estimates for sea and land surface. However, estimates of pCO2 from geochemical, modeling, and paleontological proxies show a wide range of values, from near modern day levels to an order of magnitude greater. Resolving the pCO2 record for this time period, and correlating it with trends in temperature, is a key task in understanding the interaction of climate and pCO2 in globally warm periods. Here we present a fine scale study of trends in temperature and pCO2 based on paleobotanical data from an early Eocene site from the Okanagan Highlands of British Columbia, Canada. Plant macrofossils were collected using an unbiased census approach from three informal units, allowing for quantitative comparison of trends within the site. Temperature estimates derived from multiple paleobotanical techniques (physiognomic and floristic approaches) suggest microthermal (MAT <13°C) but equable (CMMT >0°C) conditions for this upland site, and show a trend in declining MAT over time reflected in the three units. At the same time, stomatal frequency of Ginkgo suggests that pCO2 was high (>2x modern values), but also declining over time. These results suggest that temperature and pCO2 were coupled during this globally warm period, and that fine scale trends on the order of 103 - 104 years can be tracked within fossil sites to provide a window on climate/pCO2 interactions.

The Relationship of Housing and Population Health: A 30-Year Retrospective Analysis

PubMed Central

Jacobs, David E.; Wilson, Jonathan; Dixon, Sherry L.; Smith, Janet; Evens, Anne

2009-01-01

Objective We analyzed the relationship between health status and housing quality over time. Methods We combined data from two nationally representative longitudinal surveys of the U.S. population and its housing, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the American Housing Survey, respectively. We identified housing and health trends from approximately 1970 to 2000, after excluding those trends for which data were missing or where we found no plausible association or change in trend. Results Changes in housing include construction type, proportion of rental versus home ownership, age, density, size, moisture, pests, broken windows, ventilation and air conditioning, and water leaks. Changes in health measures include asthma, respiratory illness, obesity and diabetes, and lead poisoning, among others. The results suggest ecologic trends in childhood lead poisoning follow housing age, water leaks, and ventilation; asthma follows ventilation, windows, and age; overweight trends follow ventilation; blood pressure trends follow community measures; and health disparities have not changed greatly. Conclusions Housing trends are consistent with certain health trends over time. Future national longitudinal surveys should include health, housing, and community metrics within a single integrated design, instead of separate surveys, in order to develop reliable indicators of how housing changes affect population health and how to best target resources. Little progress has been made in reducing the health and housing disparities of disadvantaged groups, with the notable exception of childhood lead poisoning caused by exposure to lead-based paint hazards. Use of these and other data sets to create reliable integrated indicators of health and housing quality are needed. PMID:19440499

Prescriptions, Nonmedical Use, and Emergency Department Visits Involving Prescription Stimulants

PubMed Central

Chen, Lian-Yu; Crum, Rosa M.; Strain, Eric C.; CalebAlexander, G.; Kaufmann, Christopher; Mojtabai, Ramin

2018-01-01

Objective Little is known regarding the temporal trends in prescription, nonmedical use and emergency department (ED) visits involving prescription stimulants in the United States. We aimed to examine the three national trends involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamin (Adderall) and methylphenidate in adults and adolescents. Method Three national surveys conducted between 2006-2011 were used: National Disease and Therapeutic Index (NDTI), a survey of office-based practices, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), a population survey of substance use, and Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN), a survey of ED visits. Ordinary least square regression was used to examine temporal changes over time and the associations between these three trends. Results In adolescents, treatment visits involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamine and methylphenidate decreased over time; nonmedical dextroamphetamine-amphetamine use remained stable while nonmedical methylphenidate use declined by 54.4% in 6 years. ED visits involving either medication remained stable. In adults, treatment visits involving dextroamphetamine-amphetamine remained unchanged while nonmedical use went up by 67% and ED visits went up by 156%. These three trends involving methylphenidate remained unchanged. The major source for both medications was a friend or relative across age groups; two-thirds of these friends/relatives had obtained the medication from a physician. Conclusions Trends of prescriptions for stimulants do not correspond to trends in reports of nonmedical use and ED visits. Increased nonmedical stimulant use may not be simply attributed to increased prescribing trends. Future studies should focus on deeper understanding of the proportion, risk factors and motivations for drug diversions. PMID:26890573

Evaluation of the initial thematic output from a continuous change-detection algorithm for use in automated operational land-change mapping by the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pengra, Bruce; Gallant, Alisa L.; Zhu, Zhe; Dahal, Devendra

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun the development of operational, 30-m resolution annual thematic land cover data to meet the needs of a variety of land cover data users. The Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm is being evaluated as the likely methodology following early trials. Data for training and testing of CCDC thematic maps have been provided by the USGS Land Cover Trends (LC Trends) project, which offers sample-based, manually classified thematic land cover data at 2755 probabilistically located sample blocks across the conterminous United States. These samples represent a high quality, well distributed source of data to train the Random Forest classifier invoked by CCDC. We evaluated the suitability of LC Trends data to train the classifier by assessing the agreement of annual land cover maps output from CCDC with output from the LC Trends project within 14 Landsat path/row locations across the conterminous United States. We used a small subset of circa 2000 data from the LC Trends project to train the classifier, reserving the remaining Trends data from 2000, and incorporating LC Trends data from 1992, to evaluate measures of agreement across time, space, and thematic classes, and to characterize disagreement. Overall agreement ranged from 75% to 98% across the path/rows, and results were largely consistent across time. Land cover types that were well represented in the training data tended to have higher rates of agreement between LC Trends and CCDC outputs. Characteristics of disagreement are being used to improve the use of LC Trends data as a continued source of training information for operational production of annual land cover maps.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Fire in Slash and Burn Agriculture Landscape: A Case Study from Nagaland, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padalia, H.; Mondal, P. P.

2014-11-01

Increasing incidences of fire from land conversion and residue burning in tropics is the major concern in global warming. Spatial and temporal monitoring of trends of fire incidences is, therefore, significant in order to determine contribution of carbon emissions from slash and burn agriculture. In this study, we analyzed time-series Terra / Aqua MODIS satellite hotspot products from 2001 to 2013 to derive intra- and inter-annual trends in fire incidences in Nagaland state, located in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Time-series regression was applied to MODIS fire products at variable spatial scales in GIS. Significance of change in fire frequency at each grid level was tested using t statistic. Spatial clustering of higher or lower fire incidences across study area was determined using Getis-OrdGi statistic. Maximum fire incidences were encountered in moist mixed deciduous forests (46%) followed by secondary moist bamboo brakes (30%). In most parts of the study area fire incidences peaked during March while in warmer parts (e.g. Mon district dominated by indigenous people) fire activity starts as early as during November and peaks in January. Regression trend analysis captured noticeable areas with statistically significant positive (e.g. Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon, Tuensang and Kiphire districts) and negative (e.g. Kohima and north-western part of Mokokchung district) inter-annual fire frequency trends based on area-based aggregation of fire occurrences at different grid sizes. Localization of spatial clusters of high fire incidences was observed in Mokokchung, Wokha, Mon,Tuensang and Kiphire districts.

Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study.

PubMed

Jean, Sonia; Hudson, Marie; Gamache, Philippe; Bessette, Louis; Fortin, Paul R; Boire, Gilles; Bernatsky, Sasha

2017-12-01

Health administrative data are a potentially efficient resource to conduct population-based research and surveillance, including trends in incidence and mortality over time. Our objective was to explore time trends in incidence and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), as well as estimating period prevalence. Our RA case definition was based on one or more hospitalizations with a RA diagnosis code, or three or more RA physician-billing codes, over 2 years, with at least one RA billing code by a rheumatologist, orthopedic surgeon, or internist. To identify incident cases, a "run-in" period of 5 years (1996-2000) was used to exclude prevalent cases. Crude age and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated (using data from 2001 to 2015), and sex-specific incidence rates were also standardized to the 2001 age structure of the Quebec population. We linked the RA cohort (both prevalent and incident patients) to the vital statistics registry, and standardized mortality rate ratios were generated. Negative binomial regression was used to test for linear change in standardized incidence rates and mortality ratios. The linear trends in standardized incidence rates did not show significant change over the study period. Mortality in RA was significantly higher than the general population and this remained true throughout the study period. Our prevalence estimate suggested 0.8% of the Quebec population may be affected by RA. RA incidence appeared relatively stable, and mortality was substantially higher in RA versus the general population and remained so over the study period. This suggests the need to optimize long-term RA outcomes.

Trend-Residual Dual Modeling for Detection of Outliers in Low-Cost GPS Trajectories

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaojian; Cui, Tingting; Fu, Jianhong; Peng, Jianwei; Shan, Jie

2016-01-01

Low-cost GPS (receiver) has become a ubiquitous and integral part of our daily life. Despite noticeable advantages such as being cheap, small, light, and easy to use, its limited positioning accuracy devalues and hampers its wide applications for reliable mapping and analysis. Two conventional techniques to remove outliers in a GPS trajectory are thresholding and Kalman-based methods, which are difficult in selecting appropriate thresholds and modeling the trajectories. Moreover, they are insensitive to medium and small outliers, especially for low-sample-rate trajectories. This paper proposes a model-based GPS trajectory cleaner. Rather than examining speed and acceleration or assuming a pre-determined trajectory model, we first use cubic smooth spline to adaptively model the trend of the trajectory. The residuals, i.e., the differences between the trend and GPS measurements, are then further modeled by time series method. Outliers are detected by scoring the residuals at every GPS trajectory point. Comparing to the conventional procedures, the trend-residual dual modeling approach has the following features: (a) it is able to model trajectories and detect outliers adaptively; (b) only one critical value for outlier scores needs to be set; (c) it is able to robustly detect unapparent outliers; and (d) it is effective in cleaning outliers for GPS trajectories with low sample rates. Tests are carried out on three real-world GPS trajectories datasets. The evaluation demonstrates an average of 9.27 times better performance in outlier detection for GPS trajectories than thresholding and Kalman-based techniques. PMID:27916944

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

Stress states in the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt from passive margin to collisional tectonic setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navabpour, Payman; Barrier, Eric

2012-12-01

The present-day Zagros fold-and-thrust belt of SW-Iran corresponds to the former Arabian passive continental margin of the southern Neo-Tethyan basin since the Permian-Triassic rifting, undergoing later collisional deformation in mid-late Cenozoic times. In this paper an overview of brittle tectonics and palaeostress reconstructions of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt is presented, based on direct stress tensor inversion of fault slip data. The results indicate that, during the Neo-Tethyan oceanic opening, an extensional tectonic regime affectedthe sedimentary cover in Triassic-Jurassic times with an approximately N-S trend of the σ3 axis, oblique to the margin, which was followed by some local changes to a NE-SW trend during Jurassic-Cretaceous times. The stress state significantly changed to thrust setting, with a NE-SW trend of the σ1 axis, and a compressional tectonic regime prevailed during the continental collision and folding of the sedimentary cover in Oligocene-Miocene times. This compression was then followed by a strike-slip stress state with an approximately N-S trend of the σ1 axis, oblique to the belt, during inversion of the inherited extensional basement structures in Pliocene-Recent times. The brittle tectonic reconstructions, therefore, highlighted major changes of the stress state in conjunction with transitions between thin- and thick-skinned structures during different extensional and compressional stages of continental deformation within the oblique divergent and convergent settings, respectively.

Has Asthma Medication Use Caught Up With the Evidence?: A 12-Year Population-Based Study of Trends.

PubMed

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Tavakoli, Hamid; Lynd, Larry; FitzGerald, J Mark

2017-03-01

The importance of balance between controller and reliever medications in asthma is recognized. However, to our knowledge, the extent to which real-world practice has caught up with evidence-based guidelines has not been studied. This was a retrospective cohort study of individuals 15 to 67 years of age who satisfied a validated case definition of asthma in the administrative health database of British Columbia, Canada between 2002 and 2013. Each patient-year was assessed for inappropriate and excessive prescription of short-acting beta-agonists (SABAs) and the balance between controller and reliever medications. Trends on three time axes were evaluated: calendar time, time course of asthma, and age. Poisson regression was used to test for a linear trend. Three hundred fifty-six thousand, one hundred twelve patients (56.5% female sex; mean age, 30.5 years) contributed 2.6 million patient-years. In 7.3% of the patient-years, SABAs were prescribed inappropriately. This proportion dropped by a relative rate of 5.3% per year (P < .001). In the first year of asthma, 6.3% of patients had indicators of inappropriate SABA use, which dropped within the first 3 years but increased thereafter. Excessive prescription of SABAs increased rapidly during the time course of asthma (change of 23.3% per year; P < .001) and by age (change of 5.1% per year; P < .001). Despite overwhelming evidence regarding the risks, inappropriate prescription for SABAs was prevalent. Excessive SABA use might explain high asthma mortality in older patients. Inappropriate prescriptions declined over the study period but increased over the time course of asthma. These trends might have contributed to the declining asthma hospitalization rates in British Columbia, but there remain gaps in care and potential for improvement in asthma outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

1998-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

PubMed

Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

2015-11-01

To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Zaba, B

2009-04-01

To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Żaba, B

2009-01-01

Objectives: To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Methods: Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Results: Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17–19 years for men and 16–19 years for women, AFM 21–24 years and 18–19 years, respectively, for the 1970–9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4–7 years for men and 0–2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Conclusions: Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations. PMID:19307343

Design of Remote GPRS-based Gas Data Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiyue; Yang, Jianhua; Lu, Wei

2018-01-01

In order to solve the problem of remote data transmission of gas flowmeter, and realize unattended operation on the spot, an unattended remote monitoring system based on GPRS for gas data is designed in this paper. The slave computer of this system adopts embedded microprocessor to read data of gas flowmeter through rs-232 bus and transfers it to the host computer through DTU. In the host computer, the VB program dynamically binds the Winsock control to receive and parse data. By using dynamic data exchange, the Kingview configuration software realizes history trend curve, real time trend curve, alarm, print, web browsing and other functions.

Spatial and Temporal scales of time-averaged 700 MB height anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutzler, D.

1981-01-01

The monthly and seasonal forecasting technique is based to a large extent on the extrapolation of trends in the positions of the centers of time averaged geopotential height anomalies. The complete forecasted height pattern is subsequently drawn around the forecasted anomaly centers. The efficacy of this technique was tested and time series of observed monthly mean and 5 day mean 700 mb geopotential heights were examined. Autocorrelation statistics are generated to document the tendency for persistence of anomalies. These statistics are compared to a red noise hypothesis to check for evidence of possible preferred time scales of persistence. Space-time spectral analyses at middle latitudes are checked for evidence of periodicities which could be associated with predictable month-to-month trends. A local measure of the average spatial scale of anomalies is devised for guidance in the completion of the anomaly pattern around the forecasted centers.

Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

PubMed

Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

2015-11-24

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in television time, non-gaming PC use and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity among German adolescents 2002–2010

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Studies in youth highlight that moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and screen-time behaviours such as television viewing and PC use are associated with a range of health outcomes. However, little is known about recent trends in these behaviours in adolescents. This paper presents time trends in German adolescents’ television time, non-gaming PC use as well as MVPA from 2002 to 2010. Methods Data were derived from the cross-sectional German Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Analyses were based on 16,918 11-to 15-year olds boys (49.1%) and girls. Outcome variables were time spent in TV viewing and using a PC (weekday and weekend day) as well as the number of days achieving 60 minutes of MVPA. Changes in both screen-time behaviours and MVPA over time were analysed using sex-specific linear regression, controlling for age and family affluence. Results TV viewing on weekdays, but not at weekends, declined steadily over time with a difference between 2002 and 2010 of 12.4 min/day in girls and 18.3 min/day in boys (p for trend < .01). We found a strong increase in PC use for non-gaming purposes over time for girls only, with a difference between 2002 and 2010 of 54.1 min/weekday and 68.8 min/weekend day (p < .001). For MVPA we found a slight statistically significant increase in terms of meeting PA guidelines as well as days/week in MVPA for boys and girls (p < .001). In 2010 14.0% of girls and 19.9% of boys met PA guideline. Conclusion Although MVPA increased from 2002 to 2010 in German adolescents, the time spent in MVPA was still low. Despite the observed decrease in TV viewing, there was no overall decline in the observed screen-based behaviours, especially for girls. This is mainly due to a marked increase in use of a PC for chatting on-line, internet, emailing, homework etc. among girls during the last ten years which outweighs the corresponding decrease in TV viewing. The findings highlight a need for strategies and interventions aimed at reducing screen-time behaviours and promoting MVPA. PMID:24725269

Multi-Core Processors: An Enabling Technology for Embedded Distributed Model-Based Control (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

generation of process partitioning, a thread pipelining becomes possible. In this paper we briefly summarize the requirements and trends for FADEC based... FADEC environment, presenting a hypothetical realization of an example application. Finally we discuss the application of Time-Triggered...based control applications of the future. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Gas turbine, FADEC , Multi-core processing technology, disturbed based control

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

Physics-based and human-derived information fusion for analysts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blasch, Erik; Nagy, James; Scott, Steve; Okoth, Joshua; Hinman, Michael

2017-05-01

Recent trends in physics-based and human-derived information fusion (PHIF) have amplified the capabilities of analysts; however with the big data opportunities there is a need for open architecture designs, methods of distributed team collaboration, and visualizations. In this paper, we explore recent trends in the information fusion to support user interaction and machine analytics. Challenging scenarios requiring PHIF include combing physics-based video data with human-derived text data for enhanced simultaneous tracking and identification. A driving effort would be to provide analysts with applications, tools, and interfaces that afford effective and affordable solutions for timely decision making. Fusion at scale should be developed to allow analysts to access data, call analytics routines, enter solutions, update models, and store results for distributed decision making.

High resolution pollutant measurements in complex urban ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Measuring air pollution in real-time using an instrumented vehicle platform has been an emerging strategy to resolve air pollution trends at a very fine spatial scale (10s of meters). Achieving second-by-second data representative of urban air quality trends requires advanced instrumentation, such as a quantum cascade laser utilized to resolve carbon monoxide and real-time optical detection of black carbon. An equally challenging area of development is processing and visualization of complex geospatial air monitoring data to decipher key trends of interest. EPA’s Office of Research and Development staff have applied air monitoring to evaluate community air quality in a variety of environments, including assessing air quality surrounding rail yards, evaluating noise wall or tree stand effects on roadside and on-road air quality, and surveying of traffic-related exposure zones for comparison with land-use regression estimates. ORD has ongoing efforts to improve mobile monitoring data collection and interpretation, including instrumentation testing, evaluating the effect of post-processing algorithms on derived trends, and developing a web-based tool called Real-Time Geospatial Data Viewer (RETIGO) allowing for a simple plug-and-play of mobile monitoring data. Example findings from mobile data sets include an estimated 50% in roadside ultrafine particle levels when immediately downwind of a noise barrier, increases in neighborhood-wide black carbon levels (3

[Trends of Tobacco and Alcohol Consumption over 65 Years in Germany].

PubMed

John, Ulrich; Hanke, Monika

2018-02-01

No estimation was available for tobacco and for alcohol consumption in Germany based on sales data that were provided for public use and suited for time trend analysis. To estimate trends of tobacco and alcohol consumption rates for the years 1950-2014. Data on tobacco and alcohol consumption in the nation were retrieved from reports made by producers of beer, wine, or spirits to the Federal Statistics Office of Germany. Time trends over the 65 years were calculated using the program Joinpoint. Tobacco consumption rose from 1950 to 1972. Thereafter it decreased, mostly by 1.2-6.9 percentage points per year. Alcohol consumption rose until the year 1974 and decreased thereafter by 1.0 percentage points annually until the end of the time period under analysis in 2014. The findings may be explained, among others, by changes of social norms according to smoking and alcohol consumption after tax increases, nonsmoker and youth protection laws, and legislative measures against driving under the influence of alcohol. A steepening of the decrease in tobacco consumption occurred after laws including tax increases had come into effect. However, the tobacco and alcohol consumption levels were still high at the end of the observation period in 2014. Eigentümer und Copyright ©Georg Thieme Verlag KG 2018.

An Improved Rank Correlation Effect Size Statistic for Single-Case Designs: Baseline Corrected Tau.

PubMed

Tarlow, Kevin R

2017-07-01

Measuring treatment effects when an individual's pretreatment performance is improving poses a challenge for single-case experimental designs. It may be difficult to determine whether improvement is due to the treatment or due to the preexisting baseline trend. Tau- U is a popular single-case effect size statistic that purports to control for baseline trend. However, despite its strengths, Tau- U has substantial limitations: Its values are inflated and not bound between -1 and +1, it cannot be visually graphed, and its relatively weak method of trend control leads to unacceptable levels of Type I error wherein ineffective treatments appear effective. An improved effect size statistic based on rank correlation and robust regression, Baseline Corrected Tau, is proposed and field-tested with both published and simulated single-case time series. A web-based calculator for Baseline Corrected Tau is also introduced for use by single-case investigators.

The computation of equating errors in international surveys in education.

PubMed

Monseur, Christian; Berezner, Alla

2007-01-01

Since the IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study, one of the major objectives of international surveys in education has been to report trends in achievement. The names of the two current IEA surveys reflect this growing interest: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Similarly a central concern of the OECD's PISA is with trends in outcomes over time. To facilitate trend analyses these studies link their tests using common item equating in conjunction with item response modelling methods. IEA and PISA policies differ in terms of reporting the error associated with trends. In IEA surveys, the standard errors of the trend estimates do not include the uncertainty associated with the linking step while PISA does include a linking error component in the standard errors of trend estimates. In other words, PISA implicitly acknowledges that trend estimates partly depend on the selected common items, while the IEA's surveys do not recognise this source of error. Failing to recognise the linking error leads to an underestimation of the standard errors and thus increases the Type I error rate, thereby resulting in reporting of significant changes in achievement when in fact these are not significant. The growing interest of policy makers in trend indicators and the impact of the evaluation of educational reforms appear to be incompatible with such underestimation. However, the procedure implemented by PISA raises a few issues about the underlying assumptions for the computation of the equating error. After a brief introduction, this paper will describe the procedure PISA implemented to compute the linking error. The underlying assumptions of this procedure will then be discussed. Finally an alternative method based on replication techniques will be presented, based on a simulation study and then applied to the PISA 2000 data.

Groundwater level trends and drivers in two northern New England glacial aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, James B.; Chalmers, Ann T.; Mack, Thomas J.; Smith, Thor E.; Harte, Philip T.

2016-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends and predictors of groundwater levels by month from two well-studied northern New England forested headwater glacial aquifers: Sleepers River, Vermont, 44 wells, 1992-2013; and Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, 15 wells, 1979-2004. Based on Kendall Tau tests with Sen slope determination, a surprising number of well-month combinations had negative trends (decreasing water levels) over the respective periods. Sleepers River had slightly more positive than negative trends overall, but among the significant trends (p < 0.1), negative trends dominated 67 to 40. At Hubbard Brook, negative trends outnumbered positive trends by a nearly 2:1 margin and all seven of the significant trends were negative. The negative trends occurred despite generally increasing trends in monthly and annual precipitation. This counterintuitive pattern may be a result of increased precipitation intensity causing higher runoff at the expense of recharge, such that evapotranspiration demand draws down groundwater storage. We evaluated predictors of month-end water levels by multiple regression of 18 variables related to climate, streamflow, snowpack, and prior month water level. Monthly flow and prior month water level were the two strongest predictors for most months at both sites. The predictive power and ready availability of streamflow data can be exploited as a proxy to extend limited groundwater level records over longer time periods.

Trends in stratospheric ozone profiles using functional mixed models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, A. Y.; Guillas, S.; Petropavlovskikh, I.

2013-05-01

This paper is devoted to the modeling of altitude-dependent patterns of ozone variations over time. Umkher ozone profiles (quarter of Umkehr layer) from 1978 to 2011 are investigated at two locations: Boulder (USA) and Arosa (Switzerland). The study consists of two statistical stages. First we approximate ozone profiles employing an appropriate basis. To capture primary modes of ozone variations without losing essential information, a functional principal component analysis is performed as it penalizes roughness of the function and smooths excessive variations in the shape of the ozone profiles. As a result, data driven basis functions are obtained. Secondly we estimate the effects of covariates - month, year (trend), quasi biennial oscillation, the Solar cycle, arctic oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle - on the principal component scores of ozone profiles over time using generalized additive models. The effects are smooth functions of the covariates, and are represented by knot-based regression cubic splines. Finally we employ generalized additive mixed effects models incorporating a more complex error structure that reflects the observed seasonality in the data. The analysis provides more accurate estimates of influences and trends, together with enhanced uncertainty quantification. We are able to capture fine variations in the time evolution of the profiles such as the semi-annual oscillation. We conclude by showing the trends by altitude over Boulder. The strongly declining trends over 2003-2011 for altitudes of 32-64 hPa show that stratospheric ozone is not yet fully recovering.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

PubMed

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Objective Sepsis Surveillance Using Electronic Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Rhee, Chanu; Kadri, Sameer; Huang, Susan S.; Murphy, Michael V.; Li, Lingling; Platt, Richard; Klompas, Michael

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To compare the accuracy of surveillance of severe sepsis using electronic health record clinical data vs claims and to compare incidence and mortality trends using both methods. DESIGN We created an electronic health record–based surveillance definition for severe sepsis using clinical indicators of infection (blood culture and antibiotic orders) and concurrent organ dysfunction (vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, and/or abnormal laboratory values). We reviewed 1,000 randomly selected medical charts to characterize the definition’s accuracy and stability over time compared with a claims-based definition requiring infection and organ dysfunction codes. We compared incidence and mortality trends from 2003–2012 using both methods. SETTING Two US academic hospitals. PATIENTS Adult inpatients. RESULTS The electronic health record–based clinical surveillance definition had stable and high sensitivity over time (77% in 2003–2009 vs 80% in 2012, P=.58) whereas the sensitivity of claims increased (52% in 2003–2009 vs 67% in 2012, P=.02). Positive predictive values for claims and clinical surveillance definitions were comparable (55% vs 53%, P=.65) and stable over time. From 2003 to 2012, severe sepsis incidence imputed from claims rose by 72% (95% CI, 57%–88%) and absolute mortality declined by 5.4% (95% CI, 4.6%–6.7%). In contrast, incidence using the clinical surveillance definition increased by 7.7% (95% CI, −1.1% to 17%) and mortality declined by 1.7% (95% CI, 1.1%–2.3%). CONCLUSIONS Sepsis surveillance using clinical data is more sensitive and more stable over time compared with claims and can be done electronically. This may enable more reliable estimates of sepsis burden and trends. PMID:26526737

Providing web-based tools for time series access and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberle, Jonas; Hüttich, Christian; Schmullius, Christiane

2014-05-01

Time series information is widely used in environmental change analyses and is also an essential information for stakeholders and governmental agencies. However, a challenging issue is the processing of raw data and the execution of time series analysis. In most cases, data has to be found, downloaded, processed and even converted in the correct data format prior to executing time series analysis tools. Data has to be prepared to use it in different existing software packages. Several packages like TIMESAT (Jönnson & Eklundh, 2004) for phenological studies, BFAST (Verbesselt et al., 2010) for breakpoint detection, and GreenBrown (Forkel et al., 2013) for trend calculations are provided as open-source software and can be executed from the command line. This is needed if data pre-processing and time series analysis is being automated. To bring both parts, automated data access and data analysis, together, a web-based system was developed to provide access to satellite based time series data and access to above mentioned analysis tools. Users of the web portal are able to specify a point or a polygon and an available dataset (e.g., Vegetation Indices and Land Surface Temperature datasets from NASA MODIS). The data is then being processed and provided as a time series CSV file. Afterwards the user can select an analysis tool that is being executed on the server. The final data (CSV, plot images, GeoTIFFs) is visualized in the web portal and can be downloaded for further usage. As a first use case, we built up a complimentary web-based system with NASA MODIS products for Germany and parts of Siberia based on the Earth Observation Monitor (www.earth-observation-monitor.net). The aim of this work is to make time series analysis with existing tools as easy as possible that users can focus on the interpretation of the results. References: Jönnson, P. and L. Eklundh (2004). TIMESAT - a program for analysing time-series of satellite sensor data. Computers and Geosciences 30, 833-845. Verbesselt, J., R. Hyndman, G. Newnham and D. Culvenor (2010). Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment, 114, 106-115. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.014 Forkel, M., N. Carvalhais, J. Verbesselt, M. Mahecha, C. Neigh and M. Reichstein (2013). Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology. Remote Sensing 5, 2113-2144.

Association mining of dependency between time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafez, Alaaeldin

2001-03-01

Time series analysis is considered as a crucial component of strategic control over a broad variety of disciplines in business, science and engineering. Time series data is a sequence of observations collected over intervals of time. Each time series describes a phenomenon as a function of time. Analysis on time series data includes discovering trends (or patterns) in a time series sequence. In the last few years, data mining has emerged and been recognized as a new technology for data analysis. Data Mining is the process of discovering potentially valuable patterns, associations, trends, sequences and dependencies in data. Data mining techniques can discover information that many traditional business analysis and statistical techniques fail to deliver. In this paper, we adapt and innovate data mining techniques to analyze time series data. By using data mining techniques, maximal frequent patterns are discovered and used in predicting future sequences or trends, where trends describe the behavior of a sequence. In order to include different types of time series (e.g. irregular and non- systematic), we consider past frequent patterns of the same time sequences (local patterns) and of other dependent time sequences (global patterns). We use the word 'dependent' instead of the word 'similar' for emphasis on real life time series where two time series sequences could be completely different (in values, shapes, etc.), but they still react to the same conditions in a dependent way. In this paper, we propose the Dependence Mining Technique that could be used in predicting time series sequences. The proposed technique consists of three phases: (a) for all time series sequences, generate their trend sequences, (b) discover maximal frequent trend patterns, generate pattern vectors (to keep information of frequent trend patterns), use trend pattern vectors to predict future time series sequences.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

PubMed Central

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-01-01

Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. Conclusions This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. PMID:28325771

Is it getting better? An analytical method to test trends in health disparities, with tobacco use among sexual minority vs. heterosexual youth as an example.

PubMed

Homma, Yuko; Saewyc, Elizabeth; Zumbo, Bruno D

2016-05-23

Previous studies have documented higher health risks for lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth compared to heterosexual youth. However, none has reported whether the sexual orientation-based gaps have widened, narrowed, or remained unchanged over time. The purpose of this study was to develop a way to test differences in trends between sexual minority and heterosexual youth cohorts in population-based studies, with cigarette smoking as an exemplar. We analysed the Minnesota Student Survey of 1998-2010, a repeated, cross-sectional census of adolescent health in grades 9 and 12. Our sample was students with recent sexual experience (Ns = 17,376-19,617). Sexual orientation was measured by gender of sexual partners in the past 12 months: students with only opposite-gender partner(s) (OPPOS), students with both male and female partners (BOTH), students with only same-gender partner(s) (SAME). We used logistic regressions to examine trends in prevalence of past-month cigarette smoking from 1998 to 2010, separately for each orientation group. We then applied novel interaction analyses to test whether disparities in smoking prevalence between OPPOS and SAME/BOTH changed over time. Recent smoking rates decreased over time among all orientation groups. BOTH adolescents were more likely than OPPOS adolescents to report past 30-day smoking, but there were no significant differences between SAME adolescents and OPPOS adolescents. Year-by-orientation interactions indicated the gap between BOTH adolescents and OPPOS adolescents widened from 1998 to 2004, then persisted between 2004 and 2010. No significant interaction effects were observed between SAME adolescents and OPPOS adolescents. All orientation groups had decreasing trends in recent cigarette smoking; however, disparities in smoking rates remain between heterosexual adolescents and bisexual adolescents. These results provide a new method of not just documenting trends within minority groups, but examining whether health equity is improving for them compared to dominant groups.

Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

PubMed

Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

2017-08-28

Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend <0.05). The incidence of IADL disability remained stable from cohort 1997-2004 to cohort 2000-2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups (all p>0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trends in suicidality among sexual minority and heterosexual students in a Canadian population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Peter, Tracey; Edkins, Tamara; Watson, Ryan; Adjei, Jones; Homma, Yuko; Saewyc, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

Objectives Despite evidence from numerous studies that document disparities in suicidality for sexual minorities, few have investigated whether or not these trends have improved over time, which is the objective of the current study. Methods Using school-based population data over a 15-year period (1998 to 2013), multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate age-adjusted odds ratios separately by gender. Interactions were included to test widening or narrowing disparities within orientation groups, which makes this one of the first studies to test whether gaps in disparities between heterosexual and sexual minorities have widened or narrowed over time. Results Results show that sexual minority youth are persistently at a greater risk for suicidal behaviour, a trend that has continued particularly for bisexual youth of both sexes. Results also suggest that the gap in suicidal behaviour is widening among some female sexual orientation groups, yet narrowing for other male sexual orientation groups. Conclusions These findings have important public health implications, especially since we see decreases in suicidal behaviour for heterosexual adolescents, but not in the same way for many sexual minority youth, despite advances in social acceptance of gay, lesbian, and bisexual issues in North America. PMID:29326961

Can the United States afford a lunar base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keaton, Paul W.

1988-01-01

Establishing a lunar base will require steady funding for a decade or two. The question addressed is whether such a large space project is affordable at this time. The relevant facts and methodology are presented so that the reader may formulate independent answers. It is shown that a permanent lunar base can be financed without increasing NASA's historical budgetary trend.

A retrospective analysis of 10-year authorship trends in biomedical engineering journals.

PubMed

Foo, Jong Yong Abdiel

2011-03-01

Studies have indicated that academic research has become increasingly complex and multidisciplinary. There seems to be an increasing trend of multiple author articles published across most journals. As the field of biomedical engineering also encompasses multidisciplinary-based knowledge, it is interesting to understand the authorship trend over time. In this study, six journals were carefully chosen from the Journal Citation Report of the Thomson Scientific based on predefined criteria (year 1999 to 2008). The data pertaining to authorships for the articles published in these journals were then acquired from the PubMed database. The results show that there is a general upward trend for the number of author per article, but it is not significant (p > .01) despite a 64.5% increase in the total number of article published in the six chosen journals. Thus, the expected increase is not observed in this field, and it may be due to the stringent guidelines by journals in defining the contributions of an author. Particularly, contributing factors like the impact of authorship irregularities is discussed herein.

Long-term response of surface water acid neutralizing capacity in a central Appalachian (USA) river basin to declining acid deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Kathleen M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Garlitz, James E.; U'Ren, Sarah H.

2016-12-01

Long-term changes in acid-base chemistry resulting from declining regional acid deposition were examined using data from repeating synoptic surveys conducted within the 275 km2 Upper Savage River Watershed (USRW) in western Maryland (USA); a randomly-selected set of 40 stream reaches was sampled 36 times between 1999 and 2014 to: (1) repeatedly characterize the acid-base status of the entire river basin; (2) determine whether an extensive network of streams of varying order has shown signs of recovery in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC); and (3) understand the key factors controlling the rate of ANC recovery across the river network. Several non-parametric analyses of trends (i.e., Mann Kendall Trend: MKT tests; and Regional Kendall Trend: RKT) in streamwater acid-base chemistry suggest that USRW has significantly responded to declining acid deposition during the study period; the two most robust, statistically significant trends were decreasing surface water SO42- (∼1.5 μeq L-1 yr-1) and NO3- (∼1 μeq L-1 yr-1) concentrations-consistent with observed downward trends in regional wet S and N deposition. Basin-wide decreasing trends in K+, Mg2+, and Ca2+ were also observed, while Na+ concentrations increased. Significant ANC recovery was observed in 10-20% of USRW stream reaches (depending on the p level used), but the magnitude of the trend relative to natural variability was apparently insufficient to allow detection of a basin-wide ANC trend using the RKT test. Watershed factors, such as forest disturbances and increased application of road deicing salts, appeared to contribute to substantial variability in concentrations of NO3- and Na+ in streams across the basin, but these factors did not affect our overall interpretation of the results as a systematic recovery of USRW from regional acidification. Methodologically, RKT appears to be a robust method for identifying basin-wide trends using synoptic data, but MKT results for individual systems should be examined closely (e.g., to identify trends for specific subpopulations).

Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.

PubMed

Gamma, Alex; Schleifer, Roman; Weinmann, Wolfgang; Buadze, Anna; Liebrenz, Michael

2016-01-01

To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug. Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed. On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6. These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe.

Trends in Mortality of Tuberculosis Patients in the United States: The Long-term Perspective

PubMed Central

Barnes, Richard F.W.; Moore, Maria Luisa; Garfein, Richard S.; Brodine, Stephanie; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Rodwell, Timothy C.

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To describe long-term trends in TB mortality and to compare trends estimated from two different sources of public health surveillance data. METHODS Trends and changes in trend were estimated by joinpoint regression. Comparisons between datasets were made by fitting a Poisson regression model. RESULTS Since 1900, TB mortality rates estimated from death certificates have declined steeply, except for a period of no change in the 1980s. This decade had long-term consequences resulting in more TB deaths in later years than would have occurred had there been no flattening of the trend. Recent trends in TB mortality estimated from National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) data, which record all-cause mortality, differed from trends based on death certificates. In particular, NTSS data showed TB mortality rates flattening since 2002. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of trends in TB mortality vary by data source, and therefore interpretation of the success of control efforts will depend upon the surveillance dataset used. The datasets may be subject to different biases that vary with time. One dataset showed a sustained improvement in the control of TB since the early 1990s while the other indicated that the rate of TB mortality was no longer declining. PMID:21820320

Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

2015-01-01

For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field. PMID:26110332

Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

2015-06-23

For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field.

Lasers, Cold Atoms and Atomic Clocks: Realizing the Second Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calonico, Davide

2013-09-01

The time is the physical quantity that mankind could measure with the best accuracy, thanks to the properties of the atomic physics, as the present definition of time is based on atomic energy transitions. This short review gives some basic information on the heart of the measurement of time in the contemporary world, i.e. the atomic clocks, and some trends related.

Are Canadian Seniors Becoming More Active? Empirical Evidence Based on Time-Use Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Victorino, Charlemaigne C.; Gauthier, A. H.

2005-01-01

In this study, we examine trends in the patterns of time use of seniors in Canada since the 1980s. In particular, we ask whether today's seniors devote more, or less, time to productive activities than 20 years ago. Our inquiry is motivated by the claims that today's seniors are not engaged in "active aging." This study uses data from a…

Inverse sequential procedures for the monitoring of time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1995-01-01

When one or more new values are added to a developing time series, they change its descriptive parameters (mean, variance, trend, coherence). A 'change index (CI)' is developed as a quantitative indicator that the changed parameters remain compatible with the existing 'base' data. CI formulate are derived, in terms of normalized likelihood ratios, for small samples from Poisson, Gaussian, and Chi-Square distributions, and for regression coefficients measuring linear or exponential trends. A substantial parameter change creates a rapid or abrupt CI decrease which persists when the length of the bases is changed. Except for a special Gaussian case, the CI has no simple explicit regions for tests of hypotheses. However, its design ensures that the series sampled need not conform strictly to the distribution form assumed for the parameter estimates. The use of the CI is illustrated with both constructed and observed data samples, processed with a Fortran code 'Sequitor'.

Structure and Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwapień, J.; Gworek, S.; Drożdż, S.

2009-01-01

We investigate topology and temporal evolution of the foreign currency exchange market viewed from a weighted network perspective. Based on exchange rates for a set of 46 currencies (including precious metals), we construct different representations of the FX network depending on a choice of the base currency. Our results show that the network structure is not stable in time, but there are main clusters of currencies, which persist for a long period of time despite the fact that their size and content are variable. We find a long-term trend in the network's evolution which affects the USD and EUR nodes. In all the network representations, the USD node gradually loses its centrality, while, on contrary, the EUR node has become slightly more central than it used to be in its early years. Despite this directional trend, the overall evolution of the network is noisy.

Observed changes in the Earth's dynamic oblateness from GRACE data and geophysical models.

PubMed

Sun, Y; Ditmar, P; Riva, R

A new methodology is proposed to estimate changes in the Earth's dynamic oblateness ([Formula: see text] or equivalently, [Formula: see text]) on a monthly basis. The algorithm uses monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity solutions, an ocean bottom pressure model and a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The resulting time series agree remarkably well with a solution based on satellite laser ranging (SLR) data. Seasonal variations of the obtained time series show little sensitivity to the choice of GRACE solutions. Reducing signal leakage in coastal areas when dealing with GRACE data and accounting for self-attraction and loading effects when dealing with water redistribution in the ocean is crucial in achieving close agreement with the SLR-based solution in terms of de-trended solutions. The obtained trend estimates, on the other hand, may be less accurate due to their dependence on the GIA models, which still carry large uncertainties.

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka

2018-01-08

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Subseasonal climate variability for North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe; Schimmel, Keith A.

2014-08-01

Subseasonal trends in climate variability for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The magnitude and significance of the trends at all stations were determined using the non-parametric Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, respectively. The Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was also applied to find the initiation of abrupt trend changes. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve were employed to address the data independency and homogeneity. Using the MK trend test, statistically significant (confidence level ≥ 95% in two-tailed test) decreasing (increasing) trends by 44% (45%) of stations were found in May (June). In general, trends were decreased in Tmax and increased in Tmin data series in subseasonal scale. Using the TSA method, the magnitude of lowest (highest) decreasing (increasing) trend in Tmax is - 0.050 °C/year (+ 0.052 °C/year) in the monthly series for May (March) and for Tmin is - 0.055 °C/year (+ 0.075 °C/year) in February (December). For the precipitation time series using the TSA method, it was found that the highest (lowest) magnitude of 1.00 mm/year (- 1.20 mm/year) is in September (February). The overall trends in precipitation data series were not significant at the 95% confidence level except that 17% of stations were found to have significant (confidence level ≥ 95% in two-tailed test) decreasing trends in February. The statistically significant trend test results were used to develop a spatial distribution of trends: May for Tmax, June for Tmin, and February for precipitation. A correlative analysis of significant temperature and precipitation trend results was examined with respect to large scale circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A negative NAO index (positive-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index) was found to be associated with the decreasing precipitation in February during 1960-1980 (2000-2009). The incremental trend in Tmin in the inter-seasonal (April-October) time scale can be associated with the positive NAO index during 1970-2000.

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.

Space-time latent component modeling of geo-referenced health data.

PubMed

Lawson, Andrew B; Song, Hae-Ryoung; Cai, Bo; Hossain, Md Monir; Huang, Kun

2010-08-30

Latent structure models have been proposed in many applications. For space-time health data it is often important to be able to find the underlying trends in time, which are supported by subsets of small areas. Latent structure modeling is one such approach to this analysis. This paper presents a mixture-based approach that can be applied to component selection. The analysis of a Georgia ambulatory asthma county-level data set is presented and a simulation-based evaluation is made. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis, phase 1, revision A. SRM and QA mission services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

An assessment of quantitative methods and measures for measuring launch commit criteria (LCC) performance measurement trends is made. A statistical performance trending analysis pilot study was processed and compared to STS-26 mission data. This study used four selected shuttle measurement types (solid rocket booster, external tank, space shuttle main engine, and range safety switch safe and arm device) from the five missions prior to mission 51-L. After obtaining raw data coordinates, each set of measurements was processed to obtain statistical confidence bounds and mean data profiles for each of the selected measurement types. STS-26 measurements were compared to the statistical data base profiles to verify the statistical capability of assessing occurrences of data trend anomalies and abnormal time-varying operational conditions associated with data amplitude and phase shifts.

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Trends in ecosystem water use efficiency are potentially amplified by plasticity in plant functional traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Gentine, Pierre; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations stimulate photosynthesis and reduce stomatal conductance, modifying plant water use efficiency. We analyzed eddy covariance flux tower observations from 20 forested ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere. For these sites, a previous study showed an increase in inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) five times greater than expectations. We used an updated dataset and robust uncertainty quantification to analyze these contemporary trends in IWUE. We found that IWUE increased in the last 15-20 years by roughly 1.4% yr-1, which is less than previously reported, but still 2.8 times greater than theoretical expectations. Numerical simulations by means of an ecosystem model based on temporally static plant functional traits (i.e. model parameters) do not reproduce this increase. We tested the hypothesis that the observed increase in IWUE could be attributed to changes in plant functional traits, potentially triggered by environmental changes. Simulation results accounting for trait plasticity (i.e. by changing model parameters such as specific leaf area and maximum Rubisco capacity) match the observed trends in IWUE, with an increase in both leaf internal CO2 concentration and gross ecosystem production (GEP), and with a negligible trend in evapotranspiration (ET). This supports the hypothesis that changes in plant functional traits of about 1.0% yr-1 can explain the observed IWUE trends and are consistent with observed trends of GEP and ET at larger scales. Our results highlight that at decadal or longer time scales trait plasticity can considerably influence the water, carbon and energy fluxes with implications for both the monitoring of temporal changes in plant traits and their representation in Earth system models.

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines.

PubMed

Hill, Jason M; Egan, J Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E; Diefenbach, Duane R

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) "grassland breeding" bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980-2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3-21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Googling in anatomy education: Can google trends inform educators of national online search patterns of anatomical syllabi?

PubMed

Phelan, Nigel; Davy, Shane; O'Keeffe, Gerard W; Barry, Denis S

2017-03-01

The role of e-learning platforms in anatomy education continues to expand as self-directed learning is promoted in higher education. Although a wide range of e-learning resources are available, determining student use of non-academic internet resources requires novel approaches. One such approach that may be useful is the Google Trends © web application. To determine the feasibility of Google Trends to gain insights into anatomy-related online searches, Google Trends data from the United States from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed. Data collected were based on the recurrence of keywords related to head and neck anatomy generated from the American Association of Clinical Anatomists and the Anatomical Society suggested anatomy syllabi. Relative search volume (RSV) data were analyzed for seasonal periodicity and their overall temporal trends. Following exclusions due to insufficient search volume data, 29 out of 36 search terms were analyzed. Significant seasonal patterns occurred in 23 search terms. Thirty-nine seasonal peaks were identified, mainly in October and April, coinciding with teaching periods in anatomy curricula. A positive correlation of RSV with time over the 6-year study period occurred in 25 out of 29 search terms. These data demonstrate how Google Trends may offer insights into the nature and timing of online search patterns of anatomical syllabi and may potentially inform the development and timing of targeted online supports to ensure that students of anatomy have the opportunity to engage with online content that is both accurate and fit for purpose. Anat Sci Educ 10: 152-159. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists.

Trend in active transportation to school among Swiss school children and its associated factors: three cross-sectional surveys 1994, 2000 and 2005

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Giving the rising trend in childhood obesity in many countries including Switzerland, strategies to increase physical activity such as promoting active school travel are important. Yet, little is known about time trends of active commuting in Swiss schoolchildren and factors associated with changes in walking and biking to school. Methods Between 1994 and 2005, information about mobility behaviour of children aged 6-14 years was collected within three Swiss population based national travel behaviour surveys. Mode of transport to school was reported for 4244 children. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess active school travel time trends and their influencing factors. Results More than 70% of Swiss children walked or biked to school. Nevertheless, the proportion of children biking to school decreased (p = 0.05, linear trend), predominately in urban areas, and motorized transportation increased since 1994 (p = 0.02). Distance to school did not change significantly over time but availability of bikes decreased (p < 0.001) and number of cars per household increased (p < 0.001). The association between survey year and bike use was significantly modified by living in an urban area (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.63 (0.44-0.90), 0.71 (0.49-1.03), respectively for 1994, 2000 and 2005) and by distance to school (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.65 (0.40-1.05), 0.50 (0.23-0.79) for the same years and for children who lived more than a mile away from school). Conclusions Programs to encourage safe biking and to limit car use as mode of transport to school are warranted to stop this trend. PMID:20398320

Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes. PMID:24846309

Long-term survival after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: population-based trends in cure and relapse by clinical characteristics.

PubMed

Smith, Lesley; Glaser, Adam W; Kinsey, Sally E; Greenwood, Darren C; Chilton, Lucy; Moorman, Anthony V; Feltbower, Richard G

2018-05-29

'Cure models' offer additional information to traditional epidemiological approaches to assess survival for cancer patients by simultaneously estimating the proportion cured and the survival of those 'uncured'. The proportion cured is a summary of long-term survival while the median survival time of the uncured provides important information on those who are not long-term survivors. Population-based trends in the cure proportion and survival of the uncured for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) by clinical prognostic risk factors were estimated using flexible parametric cure models, based on overall survival and event-free survival. Children aged 1-17 years diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 in Yorkshire, UK, were included (n = 492). The percentage cured increased from 77% (95% confidence interval 70-84%) in 1990-1997 to 89% (84-93%) in 2003-2011, while the median survival time of the uncured decreased from 3·2 years (2·2-4·1 years) to 0·7 years (0-1·5 years). Models based on event-free survival showed a similar trend. The 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse substantially decreased from 35% in 1990-97 to 9% in 2003-2011. These results show selective improvement in survival between 1990 and 2011 with a significant reduction in the risk of relapse alongside a reduced absolute duration of survival for those destined to be uncured. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Measuring trends in age at first sex and age at marriage in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Cremin, I; Mushati, P; Hallett, T; Mupambireyi, Z; Nyamukapa, C; Garnett, G P; Gregson, S

2009-04-01

To identify reporting biases and to determine the influence of inconsistent reporting on observed trends in the timing of age at first sex and age at marriage. Longitudinal data from three rounds of a population-based cohort in eastern Zimbabwe were analysed. Reports of age at first sex and age at marriage from 6837 individuals attending multiple rounds were classified according to consistency. Survival analysis was used to identify trends in the timing of first sex and marriage. In this population, women initiate sex and enter marriage at younger ages than men but spend much less time between first sex and marriage. Among those surveyed between 1998 and 2005, median ages at first sex and first marriage were 18.5 years and 21.4 years for men and 18.2 years and 18.5 years, respectively, for women aged 15-54 years. High levels of reports of both age at first sex and age at marriage among those attending multiple surveys were found to be unreliable. Excluding reports identified as unreliable from these analyses did not alter the observed trends in either age at first sex or age at marriage. Tracing birth cohorts as they aged revealed reporting biases, particularly among the youngest cohorts. Comparisons by birth cohorts, which span a period of >40 years, indicate that median age at first sex has remained constant over time for women but has declined gradually for men. Although many reports of age at first sex and age at marriage were found to be unreliable, inclusion of such reports did not result in artificial generation or suppression of trends.

Controlling for seasonal patterns and time varying confounders in time-series epidemiological models: a simulation study.

PubMed

Perrakis, Konstantinos; Gryparis, Alexandros; Schwartz, Joel; Le Tertre, Alain; Katsouyanni, Klea; Forastiere, Francesco; Stafoggia, Massimo; Samoli, Evangelia

2014-12-10

An important topic when estimating the effect of air pollutants on human health is choosing the best method to control for seasonal patterns and time varying confounders, such as temperature and humidity. Semi-parametric Poisson time-series models include smooth functions of calendar time and weather effects to control for potential confounders. Case-crossover (CC) approaches are considered efficient alternatives that control seasonal confounding by design and allow inclusion of smooth functions of weather confounders through their equivalent Poisson representations. We evaluate both methodological designs with respect to seasonal control and compare spline-based approaches, using natural splines and penalized splines, and two time-stratified CC approaches. For the spline-based methods, we consider fixed degrees of freedom, minimization of the partial autocorrelation function, and general cross-validation as smoothing criteria. Issues of model misspecification with respect to weather confounding are investigated under simulation scenarios, which allow quantifying omitted, misspecified, and irrelevant-variable bias. The simulations are based on fully parametric mechanisms designed to replicate two datasets with different mortality and atmospheric patterns. Overall, minimum partial autocorrelation function approaches provide more stable results for high mortality counts and strong seasonal trends, whereas natural splines with fixed degrees of freedom perform better for low mortality counts and weak seasonal trends followed by the time-season-stratified CC model, which performs equally well in terms of bias but yields higher standard errors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Computerized general practice based networks yield comparable performance with sentinel data in monitoring epidemiological time-course of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness.

PubMed

Truyers, Carla; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; Bartholomeeusen, Stefaan; Aertgeerts, Bert; Snacken, René; Brochier, Bernard; Yane, Fernande; Buntinx, Frank

2010-03-22

Computerized morbidity registration networks might serve as early warning systems in a time where natural epidemics such as the H1N1 flu can easily spread from one region to another. In this contribution we examine whether general practice based broad-spectrum computerized morbidity registration networks have the potential to act as a valid surveillance instrument of frequently occurring diseases. We compare general practice based computerized data assessing the frequency of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) with data from a well established case-specific sentinel network, the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS). The overall frequency and trends of weekly ILI and ARI data are compared using both networks. Detection of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness occurs equally fast in EISS and the computerized network. The overall frequency data for ARI are the same for both networks, the overall trends are similar, but the increases and decreases in frequency do not occur in exactly the same weeks. For ILI, the overall rate was slightly higher for the computerized network population, especially before the increase of ILI, the overall trend was almost identical and the increases and decreases occur in the same weeks for both networks. Computerized morbidity registration networks are a valid tool for monitoring frequent occurring respiratory diseases and the detection of sudden outbreaks.

Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-04-01

Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

Trend in distribution of primary health care professionals in Jiangsu province of eastern China.

PubMed

Xu, Kang; Zhang, Kaijin; Wang, Dan; Zhou, Ling

2014-11-28

Since the late 1990 s, the Chinese government has carried out several reforms on the primary health care, which is greatly improved but still left much to be desired, especially for the health workforces. The aim of this study was to analyze the number of health workforces and the trends in distribution of health workforces in Jiangsu province of eastern China from 2008 to 2012. The time trends in number and distribution of health professionals were compared in study period. Lorenz curves were plotted and Gini coefficient, Atkinson index and Theil index were calculated for inequalities in the distribution of health workforces to population and area. The number of health workforces increased every year and the inequality in the distribution of health workforces showed a decline trend from 2008 to 2012. After 2009, these trends changed more rapidly. There was the disproportionality between physicians and nurses. The values of three inequality indicators based on area were larger than those based on population. The health reform in 2009 might play an important role in increasing the number of health workforces and improving the distribution of health workforces in primary health care facilities. The disproportionality between physicians and nurses was related to the shortage of number of nurses.

Recent trends in analytical procedures in forensic toxicology.

PubMed

Van Bocxlaer, Jan F

2005-12-01

Forensic toxicology is a very demanding discipline,heavily dependent on good analytical techniques. That is why new trends appear continuously. In the past years. LC-MS has revolutionized target compound analysis and has become the trend, also in toxicology. In LC-MS screening analysis, things are less straightforward and several approaches exist. One promising approach based on accurate LC-MSTOF mass measurements and elemental formula based library searches is discussed. This way of screening has already proven its applicability but at the same time it became obvious that a single accurate mass measurement lacks some specificity when using large compound libraries. CE too is a reemerging approach. The increasingly polar and ionic molecules encountered make it a worthwhile addition to e.g. LC, as illustrated for the analysis of GHB. A third recent trend is the use of MALDI mass spectrometry for small molecules. It is promising for its ease-of-use and high throughput. Unfortunately, re-ports of disappointment but also accomplishment, e.g. the quantitative analysis of LSD as discussed here, alternate, and it remains to be seen whether MALDI really will establish itself. Indeed, not all new trends will prove themselves but the mere fact that many appear in the world of analytical toxicology nowadays is, in itself, encouraging for the future of (forensic) toxicology.

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, Vito; Nissley, David; Lin, Li-Sen Jim

1985-01-01

The first two years of a two-phase program aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components are discussed. In Phase 1 (baseline) effort, low cycle fatigue (LCF) models, using a data base generated for a cast nickel base gas turbine hot section alloy (B1900+Hf), were evaluated for their ability to predict the crack initiation life for relevant creep-fatigue loading conditions and to define data required for determination of model constants. The variables included strain range and rate, mean strain, strain hold times and temperature. None of the models predicted all of the life trends within reasonable data requirements. A Cycle Damage Accumulation (CDA) was therefore developed which follows an exhaustion of material ductility approach. Material ductility is estimated based on observed similarities of deformation structure between fatigue, tensile and creep tests. The cycle damage function is based on total strain range, maximum stress and stress amplitude and includes both time independent and time dependent components. The CDA model accurately predicts all of the trends in creep-fatigue life with loading conditions. In addition, all of the CDA model constants are determinable from rapid cycle, fully reversed fatigue tests and monotonic tensile and/or creep data.

Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO

PubMed Central

Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S. C.

2015-01-01

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search–based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people’s online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. PMID:26553980

Efficient hemodynamic event detection utilizing relational databases and wavelet analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saeed, M.; Mark, R. G.

2001-01-01

Development of a temporal query framework for time-oriented medical databases has hitherto been a challenging problem. We describe a novel method for the detection of hemodynamic events in multiparameter trends utilizing wavelet coefficients in a MySQL relational database. Storage of the wavelet coefficients allowed for a compact representation of the trends, and provided robust descriptors for the dynamics of the parameter time series. A data model was developed to allow for simplified queries along several dimensions and time scales. Of particular importance, the data model and wavelet framework allowed for queries to be processed with minimal table-join operations. A web-based search engine was developed to allow for user-defined queries. Typical queries required between 0.01 and 0.02 seconds, with at least two orders of magnitude improvement in speed over conventional queries. This powerful and innovative structure will facilitate research on large-scale time-oriented medical databases.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Trend in and Correlates of Undergoing Radiotherapy in Taiwanese Cancer Patients' Last Month of Life.

PubMed

Hung, Yen-Ni; Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun; Liu, Tsang-Wu; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Chen, Jen-Shi; Tang, Siew Tzuh

2016-09-01

A significant proportion of cancer patients at end of life (EOL) undergo radiotherapy, but this evidence is not from nationwide population-based studies. The aims of this population-based study were to investigate the trend in undergoing radiotherapy among Taiwanese cancer patients' last month of life (EOL radiotherapy) in 2001-2010 and to identify factors associated with EOL radiotherapy. This was a population-based retrospective cohort study analyzing data from Taiwan's national death registry, cancer registry, and National Health Insurance claims for EOL radiotherapy using multilevel generalized linear mixed modeling. Participants were Taiwanese cancer patients (N = 339,546) who died in 2001-2010. Overall, 8.59% (7.97%-9.85%) of patients underwent EOL radiotherapy with a decreasing trend over time. Correlates of EOL radiotherapy included male gender, younger age, residing in less urbanized areas, diagnosis of lung cancer, metastatic disease, death within two years of diagnosis, and without comorbidities. Cancer patients were more likely to undergo EOL radiotherapy if they received primary care from medical oncologists and pediatricians, in a nonprofit, teaching hospital with a larger case volume of terminally ill cancer patients, and greater EOL care intensity. Approximately one-tenth of Taiwanese cancer patients underwent EOL radiotherapy with a decreasing trend over time. Undergoing EOL radiotherapy was associated with demographics, disease characteristics, physician specialty, and primary hospital's characteristics and EOL care practice patterns. Clinical and financial interventions should target hospitals/physicians that tend to aggressively treat at-risk cancer patients at EOL to carefully evaluate the appropriateness and effectiveness of using EOL radiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to access observation and model datasets, calculate evaluation metrics, and visualize the results. Several other examples of the RCMES capabilities can be found at https://rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov.

Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

PubMed

Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

2017-11-01

To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mercury trends in fish from rivers and lakes in the United States, 1969-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalmers, A.T.; Argue, D.M.; Gay, D.A.; Brigham, M.E.; Schmitt, C.J.; Lorenz, D.L.

2011-01-01

A national dataset on concentrations of mercury in fish, compiled mainly from state and federal monitoring programs, was used to evaluate trends in mercury (Hg) in fish from US rivers and lakes. Trends were analyzed on data aggregated by site and by state, using samples of the same fish species and tissue type, and using fish of similar lengths. Site-based trends were evaluated from 1969 to 2005, but focused on a subset of the data from 1969 to 1987. Data aggregated by state were used to evaluate trends in fish Hg concentrations from 1988 to 2005. In addition, the most recent Hg fish data (1996-2005) were compared to wet Hg deposition data from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) over the same period. Downward trends in Hg concentrations in fish from data collected during 1969-1987 exceeded upward trends by a ratio of 6 to 1. Declining Hg accumulation rates in sediment and peat cores reported by many studies during the 1970s and 1980s correspond with the period when the most downward trends in fish Hg concentrations occurred. Downward Hg trends in both sediment cores and fish were also consistent with the implementation of stricter regulatory controls of direct releases of Hg to the atmosphere and surface waters during the same period. The southeastern USA had more upward Hg trends in fish than other regions for both site and state aggregated data. Upward Hg trends in fish from the southeastern USA were associated with increases in wet deposition in the region and may be attributed to a greater influence of global atmospheric Hg emissions in the southeastern USA. No significant trends were found in 62% of the fish species from six states from 1996 to 2005. A lack of Hg trends in fish in the more recent data was consistent with the lack of trends in wet Hg deposition at MDN sites and with relatively constant global emissions during the same time period. Although few significant trends were observed in the more recent Hg concentrations in fish, it is anticipated that Hg concentrations in fish will respond to changes in atmospheric Hg deposition, however, the magnitude and timing of the response is uncertain. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

Mercury trends in fish from rivers and lakes in the United States, 1969-2005.

PubMed

Chalmers, Ann T; Argue, Denise M; Gay, David A; Brigham, Mark E; Schmitt, Christopher J; Lorenz, David L

2011-04-01

A national dataset on concentrations of mercury in fish, compiled mainly from state and federal monitoring programs, was used to evaluate trends in mercury (Hg) in fish from US rivers and lakes. Trends were analyzed on data aggregated by site and by state, using samples of the same fish species and tissue type, and using fish of similar lengths. Site-based trends were evaluated from 1969 to 2005, but focused on a subset of the data from 1969 to 1987. Data aggregated by state were used to evaluate trends in fish Hg concentrations from 1988 to 2005. In addition, the most recent Hg fish data (1996-2005) were compared to wet Hg deposition data from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) over the same period. Downward trends in Hg concentrations in fish from data collected during 1969-1987 exceeded upward trends by a ratio of 6 to 1. Declining Hg accumulation rates in sediment and peat cores reported by many studies during the 1970s and 1980s correspond with the period when the most downward trends in fish Hg concentrations occurred. Downward Hg trends in both sediment cores and fish were also consistent with the implementation of stricter regulatory controls of direct releases of Hg to the atmosphere and surface waters during the same period. The southeastern USA had more upward Hg trends in fish than other regions for both site and state aggregated data. Upward Hg trends in fish from the southeastern USA were associated with increases in wet deposition in the region and may be attributed to a greater influence of global atmospheric Hg emissions in the southeastern USA. No significant trends were found in 62% of the fish species from six states from 1996 to 2005. A lack of Hg trends in fish in the more recent data was consistent with the lack of trends in wet Hg deposition at MDN sites and with relatively constant global emissions during the same time period. Although few significant trends were observed in the more recent Hg concentrations in fish, it is anticipated that Hg concentrations in fish will respond to changes in atmospheric Hg deposition, however, the magnitude and timing of the response is uncertain.

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the summertime maximum temperature trends. We conduct an empirical study based on observed climate and irrigation changes to evaluate this assumption.

Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

PubMed

Scotson, Lorraine; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Ngoprasert, Dusit; Wong, Wai-Ming; Fieberg, John

2017-01-01

Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei) were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%). Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement) to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that all assumptions be clearly stated.

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

PubMed

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

The influence of biodegradability of sewer solids for the management of CSOs.

PubMed

Sakrabani, R; Ashley, R M; Vollertsen, J

2005-01-01

The re-suspension of sediments in combined sewers and the associated pollutants into the bulk water during wet weather flows can cause pollutants to be carried further downstream to receiving waters or discharged via Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO). A typical pollutograph shows the trend of released bulk pollutants with time but does not consider information on the biodegradability of these pollutants. A new prediction methodology based on Oxygen Utilisation Rate (respirometric method) and Erosionmeter (laboratory device replicating in-sewer erosion) experiments is proposed which is able to predict the trends in biodegradability during in-sewer sediment erosion in wet weather conditions. The proposed new prediction methodology is also based on COD fractionation techniques.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001-2014.

PubMed

Souza, Eliana Amorim de; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8-1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9-4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3-6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1-4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

Performance Trends During Sleep Deprivation on a Tilt-Based Control Task.

PubMed

Bolkhovsky, Jeffrey B; Ritter, Frank E; Chon, Ki H; Qin, Michael

2018-07-01

Understanding human behavior under the effects of sleep deprivation allows for the mitigation of risk due to reduced performance. To further this goal, this study investigated the effects of short-term sleep deprivation using a tilt-based control device and examined whether existing user models accurately predict targeting performance. A task in which the user tilts a surface to roll a ball into a target was developed to examine motor performance. A model was built to predict human performance for this task under various levels of sleep deprivation. Every 2 h, 10 subjects completed the task until they reached 24 h of wakefulness. Performance measurements of this task, which were based on Fitts' law, included movement time, task throughput, and time intercept. The model predicted significant performance decrements over the 24-h period with an increase in movement time (R2 = 0.61), a decrease in throughput (R2 = 0.57), and an increase in time intercept (R2 = 0.60). However, it was found that in experimental trials there was no significant change in movement time (R2 = 0.11), throughput (R2 = 0.15), or time intercept (R2 = 0.27). The results found were unexpected as performance decrement is frequently reported during sleep deprivation. These findings suggest a reexamination of the initial thought of sleep loss leading to a decrement in all aspects of performance.Bolkovsky JB, Ritter FE, Chon KH, Qin M. Performance trends during sleep deprivation on a tilt-based control task. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(7):626-633.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) Maps from Nimbus 7 and Earth-Probe TOMS by the Modified-Residual Method. 1; Validation, Evaluation and Trends based on Atlantic Regional Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M.; Hudson, Robert D.

1998-01-01

The well-known wave-one pattern seen in tropical total ozone [Shiotani, 1992; Ziemke et al., 1996, 1998] has been used to develop a modified-residual (MR) method for retrieving time-averaged stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone column amount from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) over the 14 complete calendar years of Nimbus 7 observations (1979-1992) and from TOMS on the Earth-Probe (1996-present) and ADEOS platforms (1996- 1997). Nine- to sixteen-day averaged tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) maps, validated with ozonesondes, show a seasonality expected from dynamical and chemical influences. The maps may be viewed on a homepage: http://metosrv2.umd.edu/tropo. Stratospheric column ozone, which is also derived by the modified-residual method, compares well with sondes (to within 6-7 DU) and with stratospheric ozone column derived from other satellites (within 8-10 DU). Validation of the TTO time-series is presently limited to ozonesonde comparisons with Atlantic stations and sites on the adjacent continents (Ascension Island, Natal, Brazil; Brazzaville); for the sounding periods, TTO at all locations agrees with the sonde record to +/-7 DU. TTO time-series and the magnitude of the wave-one pattern show ENSO signals in the strongest El Nifio periods from 1979-1998. From 12degN and 12degS, zonally averaged tropospheric ozone shows no significant trend from 1980-1990. Trends are also not significant during this period in localized regions, e.g. from just west of South America across to southern Africa. This is consistent with the ozonesonde record at Natal, Brazil (the only tropical ozone data publicly available for the 1980's), which shows a not statistically significant increase. The lack of trend in tropospheric ozone agrees with a statistical analysis based on another method for deriving TTO from TOMS, the so-called Convective-Cloud-Differential approach of Ziemke et al. [1998].

Comparison of Salmonella enteritidis phage types isolated from layers and humans in Belgium in 2005.

PubMed

Welby, Sarah; Imberechts, Hein; Riocreux, Flavien; Bertrand, Sophie; Dierick, Katelijne; Wildemauwe, Christa; Hooyberghs, Jozef; Van der Stede, Yves

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the available results for Belgium of the European Union coordinated monitoring program (2004/665 EC) on Salmonella in layers in 2005, as well as the results of the monthly outbreak reports of Salmonella Enteritidis in humans in 2005 to identify a possible statistical significant trend in both populations. Separate descriptive statistics and univariate analysis were carried out and the parametric and/or non-parametric hypothesis tests were conducted. A time cluster analysis was performed for all Salmonella Enteritidis phage types (PTs) isolated. The proportions of each Salmonella Enteritidis PT in layers and in humans were compared and the monthly distribution of the most common PT, isolated in both populations, was evaluated. The time cluster analysis revealed significant clusters during the months May and June for layers and May, July, August, and September for humans. PT21, the most frequently isolated PT in both populations in 2005, seemed to be responsible of these significant clusters. PT4 was the second most frequently isolated PT. No significant difference was found for the monthly trend evolution of both PT in both populations based on parametric and non-parametric methods. A similar monthly trend of PT distribution in humans and layers during the year 2005 was observed. The time cluster analysis and the statistical significance testing confirmed these results. Moreover, the time cluster analysis showed significant clusters during the summer time and slightly delayed in time (humans after layers). These results suggest a common link between the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis in layers and the occurrence of the pathogen in humans. Phage typing was confirmed to be a useful tool for identifying temporal trends.

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

2018-06-01

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Phase synchronization based minimum spanning trees for analysis of financial time series with nonlinear correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, Srinivasan; Duvvuru, Arjun; Sultornsanee, Sivarit; Kamarthi, Sagar

2016-02-01

The cross correlation coefficient has been widely applied in financial time series analysis, in specific, for understanding chaotic behaviour in terms of stock price and index movements during crisis periods. To better understand time series correlation dynamics, the cross correlation matrices are represented as networks, in which a node stands for an individual time series and a link indicates cross correlation between a pair of nodes. These networks are converted into simpler trees using different schemes. In this context, Minimum Spanning Trees (MST) are the most favoured tree structures because of their ability to preserve all the nodes and thereby retain essential information imbued in the network. Although cross correlations underlying MSTs capture essential information, they do not faithfully capture dynamic behaviour embedded in the time series data of financial systems because cross correlation is a reliable measure only if the relationship between the time series is linear. To address the issue, this work investigates a new measure called phase synchronization (PS) for establishing correlations among different time series which relate to one another, linearly or nonlinearly. In this approach the strength of a link between a pair of time series (nodes) is determined by the level of phase synchronization between them. We compare the performance of phase synchronization based MST with cross correlation based MST along selected network measures across temporal frame that includes economically good and crisis periods. We observe agreement in the directionality of the results across these two methods. They show similar trends, upward or downward, when comparing selected network measures. Though both the methods give similar trends, the phase synchronization based MST is a more reliable representation of the dynamic behaviour of financial systems than the cross correlation based MST because of the former's ability to quantify nonlinear relationships among time series or relations among phase shifted time series.

The Effect of Web-Based Education on Patient Satisfaction, Consultation Time and Conversion to Surgery.

PubMed

Boudreault, David J; Li, Chin-Shang; Wong, Michael S

2016-01-01

To evaluate the effect of web-based education on (1) patient satisfaction, (2) consultation times, and (3) conversion to surgery. A retrospective review of 767 new patient consultations seen by 4 university-based plastic surgeons was conducted between May 2012 and August 2013 to determine the effect a web-based education program has on patient satisfaction and consultation time. A standard 5-point Likert scale survey completed at the end of the consultation was used to assess satisfaction with their experience. Consult times were obtained from the electronic medical record. All analyses were done with Statistical Analysis Software version 9.2 (SAS Inc., Cary, NC). A P value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Those who viewed the program before their consultation were more satisfied with their consultation compared to those who did not (satisfaction scores, mean ± SD: 1.13 ± 0.44 vs 1.36 ± 0.74; P = 0.02) and more likely to rate their experience as excellent (92% vs 75%; P = 0.02). Contrary to the claims of Emmi Solutions, patients who viewed the educational program before consultation trended toward longer visits compared to those who did not (mean time ± SD: 54 ± 26 vs 50 ± 35 minutes; P = 0.10). More patients who completed the program went on to undergo a procedure (44% vs 37%; P = 0.16), but this difference was not statistically significant. Viewing web-based educational programs significantly improved plastic surgery patients' satisfaction with their consultation, but patients who viewed the program also trended toward longer consultation times. Although there was an increase in converting to surgical procedures, this did not reach statistical significance.

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and lung cancer type in the epidemiological database, changes over time in diagnosis of lung cancer types, lack of national representativeness of some studies, and regional variation in smoking misclassification. However, the results seem consistent with the literature, and provide additional information on variability by time and region, including evidence of a rise in never smoker adenocarcinoma rates relative to squamous cell carcinoma rates. PMID:23570286

[Development strategy of Paris based on combination of domestic patent and current resource application and development].

PubMed

Zhao, Fei-Ya; Tao, Ai-En; Xia, Cong-Long

2018-01-01

Paris is a commonly used traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), and has antitumor, antibacterial, sedative, analgesic and hemostatic effects. It has been used as an ingredient of 81 Chinese patent medicines, with a wide application and large market demand. Based on the data retrieved from state Intellectual Property Office patent database, a comprehensive analysis was made on Paris patents, so as to explore the current features of Paris patents in the aspects of domestic patent output, development trend, technology field distribution, time dimension, technology growth rate and patent applicant, and reveal the development trend of China's Paris industry. In addition, based on the current Paris resource application and development, a sustainable, multi-channel and multi-level industrial development approach was built. According to the results, studies of Paris in China are at the rapid development period, with a good development trend. However, because wild Paris resources tend to be exhausted, the studies for artificial cultivation technology should be strengthened to promote the industrial development. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Using ontology-based annotation to profile disease research

PubMed Central

Coulet, Adrien; LePendu, Paea; Shah, Nigam H

2012-01-01

Background Profiling the allocation and trend of research activity is of interest to funding agencies, administrators, and researchers. However, the lack of a common classification system hinders the comprehensive and systematic profiling of research activities. This study introduces ontology-based annotation as a method to overcome this difficulty. Analyzing over a decade of funding data and publication data, the trends of disease research are profiled across topics, across institutions, and over time. Results This study introduces and explores the notions of research sponsorship and allocation and shows that leaders of research activity can be identified within specific disease areas of interest, such as those with high mortality or high sponsorship. The funding profiles of disease topics readily cluster themselves in agreement with the ontology hierarchy and closely mirror the funding agency priorities. Finally, four temporal trends are identified among research topics. Conclusions This work utilizes disease ontology (DO)-based annotation to profile effectively the landscape of biomedical research activity. By using DO in this manner a use-case driven mechanism is also proposed to evaluate the utility of classification hierarchies. PMID:22494789

Plant phenology in western Canada: trends and links to the view from space.

PubMed

Beaubien, Elisabeth G; Hall-Beyer, Mryka

2003-01-01

One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes.

Trends and uncertainties in U.S. cloud cover from weather stations and satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Free, M. P.; Sun, B.; Yoo, H. L.

2014-12-01

Cloud cover data from ground-based weather observers can be an important source of climate information, but the record of such observations in the U.S. is disrupted by the introduction of automated observing systems and other artificial shifts that interfere with our ability to assess changes in cloudiness at climate time scales. A new dataset using 54 National Weather Service (NWS) and 101 military stations that continued to make human-augmented cloud observations after the 1990s has been adjusted using statistical changepoint detection and visual scrutiny. The adjustments substantially reduce the trends in U.S. mean total cloud cover while increasing the agreement between the cloud cover time series and those of physically related climate variables such as diurnal temperature range and number of precipitation days. For 1949-2009, the adjusted time series give a trend in U.S. mean total cloud of 0.11 ± 0.22 %/decade for the military data, 0.55 ± 0.24 %/decade for the NWS data, and 0.31 ± 0.22 %/decade for the combined dataset. These trends are less than half those in the original data. For 1976-2004, the original data give a significant increase but the adjusted data show an insignificant trend of -0.17 (military stations) to 0.66 %/decade (NWS stations). The differences between the two sets of station data illustrate the uncertainties in the U.S. cloud cover record. We compare the adjusted station data to cloud cover time series extracted from several satellite datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project), PATMOS-x (AVHRR Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended) and CLARA-a1 (CM SAF cLoud Albedo and RAdiation), and the recently developed PATMOS-x diurnally corrected dataset. Like the station data, satellite cloud cover time series may contain inhomogeneities due to changes in the observing systems and problems with retrieval algorithms. Overall we find good agreement between interannual variability in most of the satellite data and that in our station data, with the diurnally corrected PATMOS-x product generally showing the best match. For the satellite period 1984-2007, trends in the U.S. mean cloud cover from satellite data vary widely among the datasets, and all are more negative than those in the station data, with PATMOS-x having the trends closest to those in the station data.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.

America's container ports : linking markets at home and abroad

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This report provides an overview of the movement of maritime freight handled by the Nations container ports in 2009 through mid-2010, based on the most current available data through that time period. It summarizes trends in maritime freight movem...

Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

2012-12-01

Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

Predicting the Trends of Social Events on Chinese Social Media.

PubMed

Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Xiaoqian; Zhang, Zhen; Bai, Shuotian; Zhu, Tingshao

2017-09-01

Growing interest in social events on social media came along with the rapid development of the Internet. Social events that occur in the "real" world can spread on social media (e.g., Sina Weibo) rapidly, which may trigger severe consequences and thus require the government's timely attention and responses. This article proposes to predict the trends of social events on Sina Weibo, which is currently the most popular social media in China. Based on the theories of social psychology and communication sciences, we extract an unprecedented amount of comprehensive and effective features that relate to the trends of social events on Chinese social media, and we construct the trends of prediction models by using three classical regression algorithms. We found that lasso regression performed better with the precision 0.78 and the recall 0.88. The results of our experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Strategic plan for the U.S. Geological Survey status and trends of Biological Resources Program: 2004-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dresler, Paul V.; James, Daniel L.; Geissler, Paul H.; Bartish, Timothy M.; Coyle, James

2004-01-01

The mission of the USGS Status and Trends of Biological Resources Program is to measure, predict, assess, and report the status and trends of the Nation's biological resources to facilitate research, enable resource management and stewardship, and promote public understanding and appreciation of our living resources. Determining the status (abundance, distribution, productivity, and health) and trends (how these variables change over time) of our living natural resources is critical for their Trumpeter swan with numbered wing tags. This tech- protection or restoration. The Progg ran nique allows birds to he monitored remotely without the provides the USGS, other agencies of need for recapture to identify individuals. Photo by the Department of the Interior (DOI), Wayne Miller. other federal and state agencies, and the public with science-based monitoring data and information for local, regional, and national assessment of biological resources and the ecosystems that support them.

The Development of Dispatcher Training Simulator in a Thermal Energy Generation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim, D. L.; Abdullah, A. G.; Mulyadi, Y.; Hasan, B.

2018-01-01

A dispatcher training simulator (DTS) is a real-time Human Machine Interface (HMI)-based control tool that is able to visualize industrial control system processes. The present study was aimed at developing a simulator tool for boilers in a thermal power station. The DTS prototype was designed using technical data of thermal power station boilers in Indonesia. It was then designed and implemented in Wonderware Intouch 10. The resulting simulator came with component drawing, animation, control display, alarm system, real-time trend, historical trend. This application used 26 tagnames and was equipped with a security system. The test showed that the principles of real-time control worked well. It is expected that this research could significantly contribute to the development of thermal power station, particularly in terms of its application as a training simulator for beginning dispatchers.

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

Analysis of reperfusion time trends in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction across New York State from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Al'Aref, Subhi J; Wong, S Chiu; Swaminathan, Rajesh V; McNair, Patrick; Feldman, Dmitriy N; Kim, Luke K; Singh, Harsimran S; Bergman, Geoffrey; Minutello, Robert M

2017-04-01

Registry-driven data have shown a significant decrease in door-to-balloon (DTB) times in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We sought to determine the trends in reperfusion times (symptom-onset to door (SOTD) and DTB times) in patients presenting with STEMI across New York State. We retrospectively examined 35,613 STEMI patients receiving PCI from 2004 to 2012 and compared median SOTD and DTB times across years. Patients with SOTD time >12h and DTB time >3h were excluded. There was a statistically significant trend towards shorter DTB times (median DTB time of 83min (IQR 53, 116) in 2004 to a median DTB time of 59min (IQR 40, 78) in 2012, P<0.01 for trend) and SOTD times (median SOTD time of 127min (IQR 64, 241) in 2004 to a median SOTD time of 116min (IQR 60, 205) in 2012, P<0.01 for trend). In subgroup analysis, demographics and the presence of co-morbid conditions did not influence the trend in reperfusion times. However, women had longer reperfusion times than men in 2012. After adjusting for confounding variables, DTB was a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (HR=1.04 (per 10minutes), P<0.01). There was a significant decrease in reperfusion times from 2004 to 2012 in STEMI patients across New York State. This trend was significant regardless of the presence of co-morbid conditions, although a significant gap in reperfusion times persists between men and women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Nonlinear analysis of gait kinematics to track changes in oxygen consumption in prolonged load carriage walking: a pilot study.

PubMed

Schiffman, Jeffrey M; Chelidze, David; Adams, Albert; Segala, David B; Hasselquist, Leif

2009-09-18

Linking human mechanical work to physiological work for the purpose of developing a model of physical fatigue is a complex problem that cannot be solved easily by conventional biomechanical analysis. The purpose of the study was to determine if two nonlinear analysis methods can address the fundamental issue of utilizing kinematic data to track oxygen consumption from a prolonged walking trial: we evaluated the effectiveness of dynamical systems and fractal analysis in this study. Further, we selected, oxygen consumption as a measure to represent the underlying physiological measure of fatigue. Three male US Army Soldier volunteers (means: 23.3 yr; 1.80 m; 77.3 kg) walked for 120 min at 1.34 m/s with a 40-kg load on a level treadmill. Gait kinematic data and oxygen consumption (VO(2)) data were collected over the 120-min period. For the fractal analysis, utilizing stride interval data, we calculated fractal dimension. For the dynamical systems analysis, kinematic angle time series were used to estimate phase space warping based features at uniform time intervals: smooth orthogonal decomposition (SOD) was used to extract slowly time-varying trends from these features. Estimated fractal dimensions showed no apparent trend or correlation with independently measured VO(2). While inter-individual difference did exist in the VO(2) data, dominant SOD time trends tracked and correlated with the VO(2) for all volunteers. Thus, dynamical systems analysis using gait kinematics may be suitable to develop a model to predict physiologic fatigue based on biomechanical work.

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

Trends in Marine Debris along the U.S. Pacific Coast and Hawai’i 1998-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, Christine; Seba B. Sheavly,; Rugg, David J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2012-01-01

We assessed amounts, composition, and trends of marine debris for the U.S. Pacific Coast and Hawai’i using National Marine Debris Monitoring Program data. Hawai’i had the highest debris loads; the North Pacific Coast region had the lowest debris loads. The Southern California Bight region had the highest land-based debris loads. Debris loads decreased over time for all source categories in all regions except for land-based and general-source loads in the North Pacific Coast region, which were unchanged. General-source debris comprised 30–40% of the items in all regions. Larger local populations were associated with higher land-based debris loads across regions; the effect declined at higher population levels. Upwelling affected deposition of ocean-based and general-source debris loads but not land-based loads along the Pacific Coast. LNSO decreased debris loads for both land-based and ocean-based debris but not general-source debris in Hawai’i, a more complex climate-ocean effect than had previously been found.

Employment-based retirement plan participation: geographic differences and trends, 2010.

PubMed

Copeland, Craig

2011-10-01

LATEST DATA: This Issue Brief examines the level of participation by workers in public- and private-sector employment-based pension or retirement plans, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS), the most recent data currently available (for year-end 2010). SPONSORSHIP RATE: Among all working-age (21-64) wage and salary employees, 54.2 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsored a retirement plan in 2010. Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64 (those with the strongest connection to the work force), 61.6 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsors a plan. PARTICIPATION LEVEL: Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64, 54.5 percent participated in a retirement plan. TREND: This is virtually unchanged from 54.4 percent in 2009. Participation trends increased significantly in the late 1990s, and decreased in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 and 2004, the participation trend flattened out. The retirement plan participation level subsequently declined in 2005 and 2006, before a significant increase in 2007. Slight declines occurred in 2008 and 2009, followed by a flattening out of the trend in 2010. AGE: Participation increased with age (61.4 percent for wage and salary workers ages 55-64, compared with 29.2 percent for those ages 21-24). GENDER: Among wage and salary workers ages 21-64, men had a higher participation level than women, but among full-time, full-year workers, women had a higher percentage participating than men (55.5 percent for women, compared with 53.8 percent for men). Female workers' lower probability of participation among wage and salary workers results from their overall lower earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males. RACE: Hispanic wage and salary workers were significantly less likely than both white and black workers to participate in a retirement plan. The gap between the percentages of black and white plan participants that exists overall narrows when compared across earnings levels. GEOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES: Wage and salary workers in the South and West had the lowest participation levels (Florida had the lowest percentage, at 43.7 percent) while the upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast had the highest levels (West Virginia had the highest participation level, at 64.2 percent). White, more highly educated, higher-income, and married workers are more likely to participate than their counterparts.

Space-time analysis of snow cover change in the Romanian Carpathians (2001-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Cosmin Sandric, Ionut

2017-04-01

Snow cover is recognized as an essential climate variable, highly sensitive to the ongoing climate warming, which plays an important role in regulating mountain ecosystems. Evidence from the existing weather stations located above 800 m over the last 50 years points out that the climate of the Romanian Carpathians is visibly changing, showing an ongoing and consistent warming process. Quantifying and attributing the changes in snow cover on various spatial and temporal scales have a great environmental and socio-economic importance for this mountain region. The study is revealing the inter-seasonal changes in the timing and distribution of snow cover across the Romanian Carpathians, by combining gridded snow data (CARPATCLIM dataset, 1961-2010) and remote sensing data (2001-2016) in specific space-time assessment at regional scale. The geostatistical approach applied in this study, based on a GIS hotspot analysis, takes advantage of all the dimensions in the datasets, in order to understand the space-time trends in this climate variable at monthly time-scale. The MODIS AQUA and TERRA images available from 2001 to 2016 have been processed using ArcGIS for Desktop and Python programming language. All the images were masked out with the Carpathians boundary. Only the pixels with snow have been retained for analysis. The regional trends in snow cover distribution and timing have been analysed using Space-Time cube with ArcGIS for Desktop, according with Esri documentation using the Mann-Kendall trend test on every location with data as an independent bin time-series test. The study aimed also to assess the location of emerging hotspots of snow cover change in Carpathians. These hotspots have been calculated using Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for each bin using Hot Spot Analysis implemented in ArcGIS for Desktop. On regional scale, snow cover appear highly sensitive to the decreasing trends in air temperatures and land surface temperatures, combined with the decrease in seasonal precipitation, especially at lower elevations in all the three divisions of the Romanian Carpathians (generally below 1,700-1,800 m). The space-time patterns of snow cover change are dominated by a significant decreasing trend of snow days and earlier spring snow melt. The key findings of this study provides robust indication of a decreasing snow trends across the Carpathian Mountain region and could provide valuable spatial and temporal snow information for other related research fields as well as for an effective environmental monitoring in the mountain ecosystems of the Carpathian region

Distribution trend of high-rise buildings worldwide and factor exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Shao-Qiao

2017-08-01

This paper elaborates the development phenomenon of high-rise buildings nowadays. The development trend of super high-rise buildings worldwide is analyzed based on data from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, taking the top 100 high-rise buildings in different continents and with the time development and building type as the objects. Through analysis, the trend of flourishing of UAE super high-rise buildings and stable development of European and American high-rise buildings is obtained. The reasons for different development degrees of the regions are demonstrated from the aspects of social development, economy, culture and consciousness. This paper also presents unavoidable issues of super high-rise buildings and calls for rational treatment to these buildings.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Changes in the Work Attachment of Married Women, 1966-1976.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Lois B.

A study was conducted to (1) determine trends in the percentages of women who resume paid employment on a regular basis, work only from time to time, or remain out of the labor market entirely and (2) investigate the causes for the increased work attachment of married women. Data is based on the work histories of mature women obtained from the…

Comparison of methods for non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis: Case study using annual maximum daily precipitation in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Po-Chun; Wang, Yuan-Heng; You, Gene Jiing-Yun; Wei, Chih-Chiang

2017-02-01

Future climatic conditions likely will not satisfy stationarity assumption. To address this concern, this study applied three methods to analyze non-stationarity in hydrologic conditions. Based on the principle of identifying distribution and trends (IDT) with time-varying moments, we employed the parametric weighted least squares (WLS) estimation in conjunction with the non-parametric discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Our aim was to evaluate the applicability of non-parameter approaches, compared with traditional parameter-based methods. In contrast to most previous studies, which analyzed the non-stationarity of first moments, we incorporated second-moment analysis. Through the estimation of long-term risk, we were able to examine the behavior of return periods under two different definitions: the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence and the expected recurrence time. The proposed framework represents an improvement over stationary frequency analysis for the design of hydraulic systems. A case study was performed using precipitation data from major climate stations in Taiwan to evaluate the non-stationarity of annual maximum daily precipitation. The results demonstrate the applicability of these three methods in the identification of non-stationarity. For most cases, no significant differences were observed with regard to the trends identified using WLS, DWT, and EEMD. According to the results, a linear model should be able to capture time-variance in either the first or second moment while parabolic trends should be used with caution due to their characteristic rapid increases. It is also observed that local variations in precipitation tend to be overemphasized by DWT and EEMD. The two definitions provided for the concept of return period allows for ambiguous interpretation. With the consideration of non-stationarity, the return period is relatively small under the definition of expected recurrence time comparing to the estimation using the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence. However, the calculation of expected recurrence time is based on the assumption of perfect knowledge of long-term risk, which involves high uncertainty. When the risk is decreasing with time, the expected recurrence time will lead to the divergence of return period and make this definition inapplicable for engineering purposes.

Trends of reactive hyperaemia responses to repetitive loading on skin tissue of rats - Implications for pressure ulcer prevention.

PubMed

Yapp, Jong-Heng; Kamil, Raja; Rozi, M; Mohtarrudin, Norhafizah; Loqman, M Y; Ezamin, A R; Ahmad, Siti Anom; Abu Bakar, Zuki

2017-08-01

Tissue recovery is important in preventing tissue deterioration, which is induced by pressure and may lead to pressure ulcers (PU). Reactive hyperaemia (RH) is an indicator used to identify people at risk of PU. In this study, the effect of different recovery times on RH trend is investigated during repetitive loading. Twenty-one male Sprague-Dawley rats (seven per group), with body weight of 385-485 g, were categorised into three groups and subjected to different recovery times with three repetitive loading cycles. The first, second, and third groups were subjected to short (3 min), moderate (10 min), and prolonged (40 min) recovery, respectively, while fixed loading time and pressure (10 min and 50 mmHg, respectively). Peak hyperaemia was measured in the three cycles to determine trends associated with different recovery times. Three RH trends (increasing, decreasing, and inconsistent) were observed. As the recovery time is increased (3 min vs. 10 min vs. 40 min), the number of samples with increasing RH trend decreases (57% vs. 29% vs. 14%) and the number of samples with inconsistent RH trend increases (29% vs. 57% vs. 72%). All groups consists of one sample with decreasing RH trend (14%). Results confirm that different recovery times affect the RH trend during repetitive loading. The RH trend may be used to determine the sufficient recovery time of an individual to avoid PU development. Copyright © 2017 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wavelet-based analysis of circadian behavioral rhythms.

PubMed

Leise, Tanya L

2015-01-01

The challenging problems presented by noisy biological oscillators have led to the development of a great variety of methods for accurately estimating rhythmic parameters such as period and amplitude. This chapter focuses on wavelet-based methods, which can be quite effective for assessing how rhythms change over time, particularly if time series are at least a week in length. These methods can offer alternative views to complement more traditional methods of evaluating behavioral records. The analytic wavelet transform can estimate the instantaneous period and amplitude, as well as the phase of the rhythm at each time point, while the discrete wavelet transform can extract the circadian component of activity and measure the relative strength of that circadian component compared to those in other frequency bands. Wavelet transforms do not require the removal of noise or trend, and can, in fact, be effective at removing noise and trend from oscillatory time series. The Fourier periodogram and spectrogram are reviewed, followed by descriptions of the analytic and discrete wavelet transforms. Examples illustrate application of each method and their prior use in chronobiology is surveyed. Issues such as edge effects, frequency leakage, and implications of the uncertainty principle are also addressed. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in public perceptions and preferences on energy and environmental policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farhar, B.C.

1993-02-01

This report presents selected results from a secondary analysis of public opinion surveys, taken at the national and state/local levels, relevant to energy and environmental policy choices. The data base used in the analysis includes about 2000 items from nearly 600 separate surveys conducted between 1979 and 1992. Answers to word-for-word questions were traced over time, permitting trend analysis. Patterns of response were also identified for findings from similarly worded survey items. The analysis identifies changes in public opinion concerning energy during the past 10 to 15 years.

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

2007-10-01

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Variations in snow cover seasonality across the Kyrgyz Republic from 2000 to 2016 revealed through MODIS Terra and Aqua snow products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaszewska, M. A.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The vertical transhumance practiced by herders in the highlands of Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to environmental change. Herd movements and pasture conditions are both affected by spatial and temporal variations in snow cover and the timing of snowmelt. Early growing season soil moisture conditions affect the phenology and growth of vegetation, especially in the high elevation pastures used for summer forage. To evaluate snow seasonality, we examined three snow cover variables—the first day of snow (FDoS), the last day of snow (LDoS), and the duration of snow cover (DoSC) over 17 years based on 8-day snow product from MODIS Terra and Aqua (MOD/MYD10A2) across the Kyrgyz Republic (KYR). To track the "snow season" efficiently in the presence of snow-capped peaks, we start each snow season at day of year (DOY) 169, approximately the summer solstice, and extend to DOY 168 of the following year. To track the interannual variation of these variables, we applied two nonparametric statistics: the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Theil-Sen linear trend estimator. Our preliminary results focusing on four rayons in two oblasts indicate both large swaths of positive and negative significant trends over the different regions of the country. Positive trends in FDoS, meaning later snow arrival, were detected in parts of central KYR. Negative trends in FDoS meaning earlier arrival were detected at lower elevations in southwestern KYR. Earlier snowmelt (negative trend in LDoS) in eastern KYR resulted in a shorter snow season (negative trend in DoSC); in contrast, later snowmelt in southwestern KYR (positive trend in LDoS) resulted in a longer period of snow cover (positive trend of DoSC). We extend the analysis to the entire country and explore the influence of terrain attribites (elevation, slope, and aspect) and MODIS IGBP land cover type (MCD12Q1) on trends in snow cover seasonality. Additionally, we ran the trend tests for the Terra and Aqua snow products separately to evaluate the effect of overpass time on snow cover retrieval.

Marked socioeconomic inequalities in hip fracture incidence rates during the Bone and Joint Decade (2000-2010) in Portugal: age and sex temporal trends in a population based study.

PubMed

Oliveira, Carla Maria; Alves, Sandra Maria; Pina, Maria Fátima

2016-08-01

Socioeconomic factors may influence changes in hip fracture (HF) incidence over time. We analysed HF temporal trends during the Bone and Joint Decade in Portugal (BJD-Portugal), 2000-2010, by regional socioeconomic status (SES), sex and age. We selected registers of patients aged 50+ years with HF (International Classification of Diseases, V.9-Clinical Modification, ICD9-CM) caused by traumas of low/moderate energy, from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Annual time series of age-specific incidence rates were calculated by sex and regional SES (deprived, medium, affluent). Generalised additive models were fitted to identify shape/turning points in temporal trends. We selected 96 905 HF (77.3% in women). Women were older than men at admission (81.2±8.5 vs 78.2±10.1 years-old, p<0.001). For women 65-79 years, a continuously decreasing trend (1.7%/year) only in affluent and increasing trends (3.3-3.4%/year) after 2006/2007 in medium and deprived was observed. For men, trends were stable or increased in almost all age/SES groups (only two decreasing periods). For the oldest women, all SES present similar trends: turning points around 2003 (initiating decreasing periods: 1.8-2.9%/year) and around 2007 (initiating increasing periods: 3.7-3.3%/year). There were SES-sex-age inequalities in temporal trends during BJD-Portugal: marked SES inequalities among women aged 65-79 years (a persistent, decreasing trend only in the affluent) vanished among the oldest women; the same was not observed in men, for them, there were almost no declining periods; women aged ≥80 years, presented increasing trends around 2007, as in most deprived/age/sex groups. Despite some successful periods of decreasing trends, incidence rates did not improve overall in almost all age groups and both sexes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

2017-07-01

With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

A Fast Density-Based Clustering Algorithm for Real-Time Internet of Things Stream

PubMed Central

Ying Wah, Teh

2014-01-01

Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-based clustering algorithm is a proper choice for clustering IoT streams. Recently, several density-based algorithms have been proposed for clustering data streams. However, density-based clustering in limited time is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a density-based clustering algorithm for IoT streams. The method has fast processing time to be applicable in real-time application of IoT devices. Experimental results show that the proposed approach obtains high quality results with low computation time on real and synthetic datasets. PMID:25110753

A fast density-based clustering algorithm for real-time Internet of Things stream.

PubMed

Amini, Amineh; Saboohi, Hadi; Wah, Teh Ying; Herawan, Tutut

2014-01-01

Data streams are continuously generated over time from Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The faster all of this data is analyzed, its hidden trends and patterns discovered, and new strategies created, the faster action can be taken, creating greater value for organizations. Density-based method is a prominent class in clustering data streams. It has the ability to detect arbitrary shape clusters, to handle outlier, and it does not need the number of clusters in advance. Therefore, density-based clustering algorithm is a proper choice for clustering IoT streams. Recently, several density-based algorithms have been proposed for clustering data streams. However, density-based clustering in limited time is still a challenging issue. In this paper, we propose a density-based clustering algorithm for IoT streams. The method has fast processing time to be applicable in real-time application of IoT devices. Experimental results show that the proposed approach obtains high quality results with low computation time on real and synthetic datasets.

Modeling colorimetric characteristics of ON-OFF behavior of photochromic dyes based on bis-azospiropyrans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandi, Saeideh Gorji; Nourmohammadian, Farahnaz

2013-10-01

In the present study, colorimetric characteristics of six photochromic bis-azospiropyrans based dyes are investigated. The colorimetric axes of these dyes in terms of hue, chroma and lightness are considered via UV exposure time. Results showed that, the hue angle of these dyes changes rapidly at the first times of UV irradiation, and then remains almost constant. However, chroma and lightness continuously change till about 80-240 s for different dyes. In addition, it is shown that variations of lightness and chroma by UV exposure time have an exponential trend, which can be modeled mathematically.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

Investigating International Time Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of Atopic Eczema 1990–2010: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Deckers, Ivette A. G.; McLean, Susannah; Linssen, Sanne; Mommers, Monique; van Schayck, C. P.; Sheikh, Aziz

2012-01-01

The prevalence of atopic eczema has been found to have increased greatly in some parts of the world. Building on a systematic review of global disease trends in asthma, our objective was to study trends in incidence and prevalence of atopic eczema. Disease trends are important for health service planning and for generating hypotheses regarding the aetiology of chronic disorders. We conducted a systematic search for high quality reports of cohort, repeated cross-sectional and routine healthcare database-based studies in seven electronic databases. Studies were required to report on at least two measures of the incidence and/or prevalence of atopic eczema between 1990 and 2010 and needed to use comparable methods at all assessment points. We retrieved 2,464 citations, from which we included 69 reports. Assessing global trends was complicated by the use of a range of outcome measures across studies and possible changes in diagnostic criteria over time. Notwithstanding these difficulties, there was evidence suggesting that the prevalence of atopic eczema was increasing in Africa, eastern Asia, western Europe and parts of northern Europe (i.e. the UK). No clear trends were identified in other regions. There was inadequate study coverage worldwide, particularly for repeated measures of atopic eczema incidence. Further epidemiological work is needed to investigate trends in what is now one of the most common long-term disorders globally. A range of relevant measures of incidence and prevalence, careful use of definitions and description of diagnostic criteria, improved study design, more comprehensive reporting and appropriate interpretation of these data are all essential to ensure that this important field of epidemiological enquiry progresses in a scientifically robust manner. PMID:22808063

Keeping Happy in Cromwell

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raymond, Allen

2004-01-01

An article in the December 15, 2003, issue of "Time" magazine--"Does Kindergarten Need Cops?"--described what it called an "alarming trend" of violence, profanity and "other outrageous acts" by children in kindergarten and first grade. The article, based on a regional study conducted by Partnership for…

Impact of the transparent reporting of evaluations with nonrandomized designs reporting guideline: ten years on.

PubMed

Fuller, Thomas; Peters, Jaime; Pearson, Mark; Anderson, Rob

2014-11-01

We assessed how the Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Nonrandomized Designs (TREND) reporting guideline was used by authors and journal editors in journals' instructions to authors. We also evaluated its impact on reporting completeness and study quality. We extracted data from publications that cited TREND on how TREND was used in those reports; we also extracted information on journals' instructions to authors. We then undertook a case-control study of relevant publications to evaluate the impact of using TREND. Between 2004 and 2013, TREND was cited 412 times, but it was only evidently applied to study reports 47 times. TREND was specifically mentioned 14 times in the sample of 61 instructions to authors. Some evidence suggested that use of TREND was associated with more comprehensive reporting and higher study quality ratings. TREND appeared to be underutilized by authors and journal editors despite its potential application and benefits. We found evidence that suggested that using TREND could contribute to more transparent and complete study reports. Even when authors reported using TREND, reporting completeness was still suboptimal.

Impact of the Transparent Reporting of Evaluations With Nonrandomized Designs Reporting Guideline: Ten Years On

PubMed Central

Peters, Jaime; Pearson, Mark; Anderson, Rob

2014-01-01

Objectives. We assessed how the Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Nonrandomized Designs (TREND) reporting guideline was used by authors and journal editors in journals’ instructions to authors. We also evaluated its impact on reporting completeness and study quality. Methods. We extracted data from publications that cited TREND on how TREND was used in those reports; we also extracted information on journals’ instructions to authors. We then undertook a case–control study of relevant publications to evaluate the impact of using TREND. Results. Between 2004 and 2013, TREND was cited 412 times, but it was only evidently applied to study reports 47 times. TREND was specifically mentioned 14 times in the sample of 61 instructions to authors. Some evidence suggested that use of TREND was associated with more comprehensive reporting and higher study quality ratings. Conclusions. TREND appeared to be underutilized by authors and journal editors despite its potential application and benefits. We found evidence that suggested that using TREND could contribute to more transparent and complete study reports. Even when authors reported using TREND, reporting completeness was still suboptimal. PMID:25211744

Quantile regression and clustering analysis of standardized precipitation index in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Yongyong; Han, Jian; Wu, Xia

2017-11-01

Because drought is a very common and widespread natural disaster, it has attracted a great deal of academic interest. Based on 12-month time scale standardized precipitation indices (SPI12) calculated from precipitation data recorded between 1960 and 2015 at 22 weather stations in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), this study aims to identify the trends of SPI and drought duration, severity, and frequency at various quantiles and to perform cluster analysis of drought events in the TRB. The results indicated that (1) both precipitation and temperature at most stations in the TRB exhibited significant positive trends during 1960-2015; (2) multiple scales of SPIs changed significantly around 1986; (3) based on quantile regression analysis of temporal drought changes, the positive SPI slopes indicated less severe and less frequent droughts at lower quantiles, but clear variation was detected in the drought frequency; and (4) significantly different trends were found in drought frequency probably between severe droughts and drought frequency.

A multi-criteria evaluation system for marine litter pollution based on statistical analyses of OSPAR beach litter monitoring time series.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; Neumann, Daniel; Fleet, David M; Matthies, Michael

2013-12-01

During the last decades, marine pollution with anthropogenic litter has become a worldwide major environmental concern. Standardized monitoring of litter since 2001 on 78 beaches selected within the framework of the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR) has been used to identify temporal trends of marine litter. Based on statistical analyses of this dataset a two-part multi-criteria evaluation system for beach litter pollution of the North-East Atlantic and the North Sea is proposed. Canonical correlation analyses, linear regression analyses, and non-parametric analyses of variance were used to identify different temporal trends. A classification of beaches was derived from cluster analyses and served to define different states of beach quality according to abundances of 17 input variables. The evaluation system is easily applicable and relies on the above-mentioned classification and on significant temporal trends implied by significant rank correlations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-based observations of nitrogen dioxide: Trends in anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Ashley Ray

Space-based instruments provide routine global observations, offering a unique perspective on the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric constituents. In this dissertation, trends in regional-scale anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions (NO + NO2 ≡ NOx) are investigated using high resolution observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). By comparing trends in OMI observations with those from ground-based measurements and an emissions inventory, I show that satellite observations are well-suited for capturing changes in emissions over time. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the observations provide a uniquely complete view of regional-scale changes in the spatial patterns of NO 2. I show that NOx concentrations have decreased significantly in urban regions of the United States between 2005 and 2011, with an average reduction of 32 ± 7%. By examining day-of-week and interannual trends, I show that these reductions can largely be attributed to improved emission control technology in the mobile source fleet; however, I also show that the economic downturn of the late 2000's has impacted emissions. Additionally, I describe the development of a high-resolution retrieval of NO2 from OMI observations known as the Berkeley High Resolution (BEHR) retrieval. The BEHR product uses higher spatial and temporal resolution terrain and profile parameters than the operational retrievals and is shown to provide a more quantitative measure of tropospheric NO2 column density. These results have important implications for future retrievals of NO2 from space-based observations.

Never enough sleep: a brief history of sleep recommendations for children.

PubMed

Matricciani, Lisa Anne; Olds, Tim S; Blunden, Sarah; Rigney, Gabrielle; Williams, Marie T

2012-03-01

There is a common belief that children are not getting enough sleep and that children's total sleep time has been declining. Over the century, many authors have proposed sleep recommendations. The aim of this study was to describe historical trends in recommended and actual sleep durations for children and adolescents, and to explore the rationale of sleep recommendations. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify recommendations for children's sleep requirements and data reporting children's actual total sleep time. For each recommendation identified, children's actual sleep time was determined by identifying studies reporting the sleep duration of children of the same age, gender, and country in the same years. Historical trends in age-adjusted recommended sleep times and trends in children's actual sleep time were calculated. A thematic analysis was conducted to determine the rationale and evidence-base for recommendations. Thirty-two sets of recommendations were located dating from 1897 to 2009. On average, age-specific recommended sleep decreased at the rate of -0.71 minute per year. This rate of decline was almost identical to the decline in the actual sleep duration of children (-0.73 minute per year). Recommended sleep was consistently ∼37 minutes greater than actual sleep, although both declined over time. A lack of empirical evidence for sleep recommendations was universally acknowledged. Inadequate sleep was seen as a consequence of "modern life," associated with technologies of the time. No matter how much sleep children are getting, it has always been assumed that they need more.

Predicting clicks of PubMed articles.

PubMed

Mao, Yuqing; Lu, Zhiyong

2013-01-01

Predicting the popularity or access usage of an article has the potential to improve the quality of PubMed searches. We can model the click trend of each article as its access changes over time by mining the PubMed query logs, which contain the previous access history for all articles. In this article, we examine the access patterns produced by PubMed users in two years (July 2009 to July 2011). We explore the time series of accesses for each article in the query logs, model the trends with regression approaches, and subsequently use the models for prediction. We show that the click trends of PubMed articles are best fitted with a log-normal regression model. This model allows the number of accesses an article receives and the time since it first becomes available in PubMed to be related via quadratic and logistic functions, with the model parameters to be estimated via maximum likelihood. Our experiments predicting the number of accesses for an article based on its past usage demonstrate that the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of our model are 4.0% and 8.1% lower than the power-law regression model, respectively. The log-normal distribution is also shown to perform significantly better than a previous prediction method based on a human memory theory in cognitive science. This work warrants further investigation on the utility of such a log-normal regression approach towards improving information access in PubMed.

Predicting clicks of PubMed articles

PubMed Central

Mao, Yuqing; Lu, Zhiyong

2013-01-01

Predicting the popularity or access usage of an article has the potential to improve the quality of PubMed searches. We can model the click trend of each article as its access changes over time by mining the PubMed query logs, which contain the previous access history for all articles. In this article, we examine the access patterns produced by PubMed users in two years (July 2009 to July 2011). We explore the time series of accesses for each article in the query logs, model the trends with regression approaches, and subsequently use the models for prediction. We show that the click trends of PubMed articles are best fitted with a log-normal regression model. This model allows the number of accesses an article receives and the time since it first becomes available in PubMed to be related via quadratic and logistic functions, with the model parameters to be estimated via maximum likelihood. Our experiments predicting the number of accesses for an article based on its past usage demonstrate that the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of our model are 4.0% and 8.1% lower than the power-law regression model, respectively. The log-normal distribution is also shown to perform significantly better than a previous prediction method based on a human memory theory in cognitive science. This work warrants further investigation on the utility of such a log-normal regression approach towards improving information access in PubMed. PMID:24551386

U.S. conterminous wall-to-wall anthropogenic land use trends (NWALT), 1974–2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falcone, James A.

2015-09-14

This dataset provides a U.S. national 60-meter, 19-class mapping of anthropogenic land uses for five time periods: 1974, 1982, 1992, 2002, and 2012. The 2012 dataset is based on a slightly modified version of the National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) that was recoded to a schema of land uses, and mapped back in time to develop datasets for the four earlier eras. The time periods coincide with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture data collection years. Changes are derived from (a) known changes in water bodies from reservoir construction or removal; (b) housing unit density changes; (c) regional mining/extraction trends; (d) for 1999–2012, timber and forestry activity based on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (Landfire) data; (e) county-level USDA Census of Agriculture change in cultivated land; and (f) establishment dates of major conservation areas. The data are compared to several other published studies and datasets as validation. Caveats are provided about limitations of the data for some classes. The work was completed as part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and termed the NAWQA Wall-to-Wall Anthropogenic Land Use Trends (NWALT) dataset. The associated datasets include five 60-meter geospatial rasters showing anthropogenic land use for the years 1974, 1982, 1992, 2002, and 2012, and 14 rasters showing the annual extent of timber clearcutting and harvest from 1999 to 2012.

Numerical and Qualitative Contrasts of Two Statistical Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two statistical approaches, weighted regression on time, discharge, and season and generalized additive models, have recently been used to evaluate water quality trends in estuaries. Both models have been used in similar contexts despite differences in statistical foundations and products. This study provided an empirical and qualitative comparison of both models using 29 years of data for two discrete time series of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in the Patuxent River estuary. Empirical descriptions of each model were based on predictive performance against the observed data, ability to reproduce flow-normalized trends with simulated data, and comparisons of performance with validation datasets. Between-model differences were apparent but minor and both models had comparable abilities to remove flow effects from simulated time series. Both models similarly predicted observations for missing data with different characteristics. Trends from each model revealed distinct mainstem influences of the Chesapeake Bay with both models predicting a roughly 65% increase in chl-a over time in the lower estuary, whereas flow-normalized predictions for the upper estuary showed a more dynamic pattern, with a nearly 100% increase in chl-a in the last 10 years. Qualitative comparisons highlighted important differences in the statistical structure, available products, and characteristics of the data and desired analysis. This manuscript describes a quantitative comparison of two recently-

Motivating Factors and Tangential Learning for Knowledge Acquisition in Educational Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mozelius, Peter; Fagerström, Andreas; Söderquist, Max

2017-01-01

Game-based learning has been a strong emerging trend in the 21st century, but several research studies on game-based learning reports that the educational potential of games has not been fully realised. Many educational games do not combine learning outcomes with entertaining gameplay. At the same time as there is a tendency to digitise and…

The Trend of Body Donation for Education Based on Korean Social and Religious Culture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Jong-Tae; Jang, Yoonsun; Park, Min Sun; Pae, Calvin; Park, Jinyi; Hu, Kyung-Seok; Park, Jin-Seo; Han, Seung-Ho; Koh, Ki-Seok; Kim, Hee-Jin

2011-01-01

Until a century ago, Korean medicine was based mainly on Oriental philosophies and ideas. From a religious perspective, Chinese Confucianism was prevalent in Korea at that time. Since Confucianists believe that it is against one's filial duty to harm his or her body, given to them by their parents, most Koreans did not donate their bodies or…

Monitoring, modeling, and management: why base avian management on vital rates and how should it be done?

Treesearch

David F. DeSante; M. Philip Nott; Danielle R. Kaschube

2005-01-01

In this paper we argue that effective management of landbirds should be based on assessing and monitoring their vital rates (primary demographic parameters) as well as population trends. This is because environmental stressors and management actions affect vital rates directly and usually without time lags, and because monitoring vital rates provides a) information on...

Los Rios Community College District. Spring 1999 Student Profile, Based upon First Census Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glyer-Culver, Betty

This report, the second in a series based upon the official Spring First Census, provides data on student demographics and enrollment trends from spring 1994 to spring 1999 for the three colleges in California's Los Rios Community College District: American River College, Cosumnes River College, and Sacramento City College. For the first time, the…

Online Resources for Identifying Evidence-Based, Out-of-School Time Programs: A User's Guide. Research-to-Results Brief. Publication #2009-36

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terzian; Mary; Moore, Kristin Anderson; Williams-Taylor, Lisa; Nguyen, Hoan

2009-01-01

Child Trends produced this Guide to assist funders, administrators, and practitioners in identifying and navigating online resources to find evidence-based programs that may be appropriate for their target populations and communities. The Guide offers an overview of 21 of these resources--11 searchable online databases, 2 online interactive…

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

Incidence and survival trends of lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England

PubMed Central

Ekrikpo, U; Lyne, O; Wiseberg, J

2015-01-01

Background Oral cavity cancers are on the increase in the UK. Understanding site-specific epidemiological trends is important for cancer control measures. This study demonstrates the changing epidemiological trends in lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England from 1987 to 2006. Aim: Methods This was a retrospective study using anonymised data obtained from the Thames Cancer Registry (TCR) London. Data were analysed using SPSS v.17 and survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Age standardisation of the incidence rates was performed. It was conducted in south-east England, which has an average population of 12 million. The study analysed 9,318 cases (ICD-10 code C00–C06, C14). Kent Research Ethics Committee UK granted ethical approval. Results Oral cancers were more common in men, with male: female ratio of 1.6:1. Tongue cancers had the highest frequency at 3,088 (33.1%). Incidence varied with each cancer type. Mean incidence (per 1,000,000) ranged from 2.3 (lip cancer) to 13.8 (tongue cancer). There has been a statistically significant increase in incidence for cancers of the tongue base, other parts of tongue, gum and palate (p<0.001). Median survival time varied by sub-site, with lip cancer having the best median survival time (11.09 years) compared with tongue base cancer (2.42 years). Survival analyses showed worse prognosis for men, older age at diagnosis, and presence of synchronous tumours (p<0.001). Conclusion There is a rising incidence of tongue and tongue base, gum and palate cancers in south-east England with wide variability in survival. Oral cancer awareness and screening programmes should be encouraged. PMID:26263810

Incidence and survival trends of lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England.

PubMed

Olaleye, O; Ekrikpo, U; Lyne, O; Wiseberg, J

2015-04-01

Oral cavity cancers are on the increase in the UK. Understanding site-specific epidemiological trends is important for cancer control measures. This study demonstrates the changing epidemiological trends in lip, intra-oral cavity and tongue base cancers in south-east England from 1987 to 2006. This was a retrospective study using anonymised data obtained from the Thames Cancer Registry (TCR) London. Data were analysed using SPSS v.17 and survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Age standardisation of the incidence rates was performed. It was conducted in south-east England, which has an average population of 12 million. The study analysed 9,318 cases (ICD-10 code C00-C06, C14). Kent Research Ethics Committee UK granted ethical approval. Oral cancers were more common in men, with male: female ratio of 1.6:1. Tongue cancers had the highest frequency at 3,088 (33.1%). Incidence varied with each cancer type. Mean incidence (per 1,000,000) ranged from 2.3 (lip cancer) to 13.8 (tongue cancer). There has been a statistically significant increase in incidence for cancers of the tongue base, other parts of tongue, gum and palate (p<0.001). Median survival time varied by sub-site, with lip cancer having the best median survival time (11.09 years) compared with tongue base cancer (2.42 years). Survival analyses showed worse prognosis for men, older age at diagnosis, and presence of synchronous tumours (p<0.001). There is a rising incidence of tongue and tongue base, gum and palate cancers in south-east England with wide variability in survival. Oral cancer awareness and screening programmes should be encouraged.

Historical and potential groundwater drawdown in the Bruneau area, Owyhee County, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkins, Candice B.; Bartolino, James R.

2012-01-01

Geothermal seeps and springs in the Bruneau area in southwestern Idaho provide a vital but disappearing habitat for the Bruneau hot springsnail (Pyrgulopsis bruneauensis). In order to aid in conservation efforts, a two-part study was conducted (1) to determine trends in groundwater levels over time and (2) to simulate drawdown in aquifers that contribute to the geothermal seeps and springs along the Bruneau River. Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests for trends were used to determine water-level trends over a 20-year monitoring (1990–2010) period. Seasonal Kendall tests were used to calculate trends in groundwater-levels in 22 monitoring wells and indicated statistically significant changes in water level with trends ranging from 0.21 to 1.0 feet per year. Regional Kendall tests were used to calculate drawdown in categories of wells based on five criteria (well depth, distance from Indian Bathtub Spring, geologic unit, regional topographic valley, and temperature). Results from Regional Kendall tests indicate that slope of the trend (in feet per year) increased as a function of well depth; trends in water level as a function of other categories did not exhibit an obvious pattern based on distance from Indian Bathtub Spring, geologic unit, topographic valley, or temperature. Analytical solutions were used to simulate drawdown and recovery in wells using the Theis equation and a range of hydraulic parameters. Drawdown effects were determined by changing the storativity, transmissivity, and flow values over a hypothetical timeline. For example, estimates projected that after 20 years of pumping (at an assumed storativity of 0.002, a transmissivity of 980,000 feet squared per day, and a flow of 100 acre-feet per year), 1 foot of drawdown in the volcanic-rock aquifers would not be detected; however, other estimates using the same time frame but different hydraulic parameters (storativity of 0.001, transmissivity of 13,000 feet squared per day, and 610 acre-feet per year) determined 1 foot of drawdown to be detected as far as 29 miles from the hypothetical pumping well. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of changing one hydraulic parameter while keeping the others constant. Many assumptions had to be made about properties of the aquifer in order to calculate effects of drawdown on geothermal seeps and springs. These analyses estimate pumping effects over time; the recovery of groundwater levels would likely take significantly longer to observe than the effects from pumping.

Incidence and survival time trends for Spanish children and adolescents with leukaemia from 1983 to 2007.

PubMed

Marcos-Gragera, R; Galceran, J; Martos, C; de Munain, A L; Vicente-Raneda, M; Navarro, C; Quirós-Garcia, J R; Sánchez, M-J; Ardanaz, E; Ramos, M; Mateos, A; Salmerón, D; Felipe, S; Peris-Bonet, R

2017-03-01

We have analysed incidence and survival trends of children and adolescents with leukaemia registered in Spanish population-based cancer registries during the period 1983-2007. Childhood and adolescent leukaemia cases were drawn from the 11 Spanish population-based cancer registries. For survival, registries with data for the period 1991-2005 and follow-up until 31-12-2010 were included. Overall incidence trends were evaluated using joinpoint analysis. Observed survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier, and trends were tested using the log-rank test. Based on 2606 cases (2274 children and 332 adolescents), the overall age-adjusted incidence rate (ASRw) of leukaemia was 47.9 cases per million child-years in children and 23.8 in adolescents. The ASRw of leukaemia increased with an annual percentage change of 9.6 % (95 % CI: 2.2-17.6) until 1990 followed by a stabilisation of rates. In adolescents, incidence did not increase. Five-year survival increased from 66 % in 1991-1995 to 76 % in 2001-2005. By age, survival was dramatically lower in infants (0) and adolescents (15-19) than in the other age groups and no improvement was observed. In both children and adolescents, differences in 5-year survival rates among major subgroups of leukaemias were significant. The increasing incidence trends observed in childhood leukaemias during the study period were confined to the beginning of the period. Remarkable improvements in survival have been observed in Spanish children with leukaemias. However, this improvement was not observed in infants and adolescents.

The use of monitoring data in EU chemicals management--experiences and considerations from the German environmental specimen bank.

PubMed

Koschorreck, Jan; Heiss, Christiane; Wellmitz, Jörg; Fliedner, Annette; Rüdel, Heinz

2015-02-01

Since the 1970s, environmental specimen banks (ESB) have emerged in many countries. Their highly standardised sampling and archiving strategies make them a valuable tool in tracing time trends and spatial distributions of chemicals in ecosystem compartments. The present article intends to highlight the potential of ESBs for regulatory agencies in the European Union (EU). The arguments are supported by examples of retrospective monitoring studies conducted under the programme of the German ESB. These studies have evaluated the success of regulatory and industry provisions for substances of concern (i.e. PCB, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, perfluorinated compounds, alkylphenol compounds, organotin compounds, triclosan/methyl-triclosan, musk fragrances). Time trend studies revealed for example that levels of organotin compounds in marine biota from German coastal waters decreased significantly after the EU had decided on a total ban of organotin-based antifoulings in 2003. Similarly, concentrations of commercially relevant congeners of polybrominated diphenyl ethers decreased in herring gull eggs from the North Sea only after an EU-wide ban in 2004. The data presented demonstrate the usefulness of ESB samples for (retrospective) time trend monitoring and underline the benefit of a more intensive cooperation between chemicals management and specimen banking.

Spatial and temporal trends of drought effects in a heterogeneous semi-arid forest ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assal, Timothy J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Sibold, Jason

2016-01-01

Drought has long been recognized as a driving mechanism in the forests of western North America and drought-induced mortality has been documented across genera in recent years. Given the frequency of these events are expected to increase in the future, understanding patterns of mortality and plant response to severe drought is important to resource managers. Drought can affect the functional, physiological, structural, and demographic properties of forest ecosystems. Remote sensing studies have documented changes in forest properties due to direct and indirect effects of drought; however, few studies have addressed this at local scales needed to characterize highly heterogeneous ecosystems in the forest-shrubland ecotone. We analyzed a 22-year Landsat time series (1985–2012) to determine changes in forest in an area that experienced a relatively dry decade punctuated by two years of extreme drought. We assessed the relationship between several vegetation indices and field measured characteristics (e.g. plant area index and canopy gap fraction) and applied these indices to trend analysis to uncover the location, direction and timing of change. Finally, we assessed the interaction of climate and topography by forest functional type. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), a measure of canopy water content, had the strongest correlation with short-term field measures of plant area index (R2 = 0.64) and canopy gap fraction (R2 = 0.65). Over the entire time period, 25% of the forested area experienced a significant (p-value < 0.05) negative trend in NDMI, compared to less than 10% in a positive trend. Coniferous forests were more likely to be associated with a negative NDMI trend than deciduous forest. Forests on southern aspects were least likely to exhibit a negative trend while north aspects were most prevalent. Field plots with a negative trend had a lower live density, and higher amounts of standing dead and down trees compared to plots with no trend. Our analysis identifies spatially explicit patterns of long-term trends anchored with ground based evidence to highlight areas of forest that are resistant, persistent or vulnerable to severe drought. The results provide a long-term perspective for the resource management of this area and can be applied to similar ecosystems throughout western North America.

The impacts of emission trends of POPs on human concentration dynamics: Lessons learned from a longitudinal study in Norway (1979-2007).

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning; Nieboer, Evert; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Breivik, Knut

2017-06-01

In this short communication, our focus is on the relationship between human concentrations of select persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and environmental emissions. It is based on a longitudinal study (1979-2007) conducted in Norway. Our aim was to extract general insights from observed and predicted temporal trends in human concentrations of 49 POPs to assist in the design and interpretation of future monitoring studies. Despite considerable decline for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) since 1986, the sum of the targeted POPs increased from 1979 until 2001, with per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) dominating recent blood burden measurements. Specifically, the time trends in serum concentrations of POPs, exemplified by PCB-153, 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl)bis(4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), resembled the trends in available data on their emissions, production or use. These observations suggest that interpretations of human biomonitoring data on persistent compounds must consider historic emissions, which likely vary spatially across the globe. Based on the different temporal trends observed across POP groups, it is evident that generalizations regarding temporal aspects have limitations. The discussion herein underscores the importance of understanding temporal variations in environmental emissions when designing and interpreting human biomonitoring studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Visualization of CDA laboratory reports and long term trends as a possible EHR application for patients and physicians.

PubMed

Obenaus, Manuel; Burgsteiner, Harald

2014-01-01

To increase the patient's acceptance of electronic health records and understanding for their laboratory findings a web application was developed which presents all parameters and possible deviations of standard values in a clear way and visualizes the time based trend of all recorded parameters graphically. Documents corresponding to the Clinical document architecture (CDA) R2 laboratory reports standard and a rapid prototyping framework called Groovy on Grails were used. This work shows, that it is possible to create a useful, standards based tool for patients and physicians with comparatively few resources - an application that could be in similar form a part of an electronic Health Record (EHR) system like the Austrian electronic Health Record (ELGA).

ROE Acid-Sensitive Waters

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The polygon dataset represents areas with acid-sensitive waters in the contiguous United States. Summary data in this indicator were provided by EPA??s Office of Atmospheric Programs and are taken from a publication documenting how surface waters have responded to reduced air emissions of acid rain precursors (U.S. EPA, 2003) and from more recent unpublished results (U.S. EPA, 2014). Trends are based on data collected in two networks: the TIME project and the LTM project. Because both networks are operated by numerous collaborators in state agencies, academic institutions, and other federal agencies, the monitoring data are not available in a single publication or database. The trend data in this indicator are based on observations documented in several publications (see pages 15-17 of U.S. EPA, 2003).

Investigating the Uncertainty in Global SST Trends Due to Internal Variations Using an Improved Trend Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Ying, Jun; Tang, Youmin; Li, Junde; Ling, Zheng

2018-03-01

A new criterion was proposed recently to measure the influence of internal variations on secular trends in a time series. When the magnitude of the trend is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from internal variations, the sign of the estimated trend can be interpreted as the underlying long-term change. Otherwise, the sign may depend on the period chosen. An improved least squares method is developed here to further reduce the theoretical threshold and is applied to eight sea surface temperature (SST) data sets covering the period 1881-2013 to investigate whether there are robust trends in global SSTs. It is found that the warming trends in the western boundary regions, the South Atlantic, and the tropical and southern-most Indian Ocean are robust. However, robust trends are not found in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, or the South Indian Ocean. The globally averaged SST and Indian Ocean Dipole indices are found to have robustly increased, whereas trends in the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific, Niño 3.4 SST, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are within the uncertainty range associated with internal variations. These results indicate that great care is required when interpreting SST trends using the available records in certain regions and indices. It is worth noting that the theoretical threshold can be strongly influenced by low-frequency oscillations, and the above conclusions are based on the assumption that trends are linear. Caution should be exercised when applying the theoretical threshold criterion to real data.

Sea water Corrosion of Nickel based Plasma Spray Coating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parida, M.; Nanda, S. P.; Bhuyan, S. K.; Mishra, S. C.

2018-03-01

Different types of erosion resistant coatings are applied/deposited on aero components, depending on the operating/working temperatures. Nickel based coating are applied on the air craft (compressor) components, which can sustain up to working temperature of 650°C. In the present investigation, to improve the compatibility between substrate (i.e. the machine component) and the top coat, application of bond coat is there. The application of Nickel based coating by thermal plasma spray technique has proven to be a satisfactory means of producing acceptable sealing surface with excellent abradability. Before the corrosion study, coated sample is subjected to hardness, thickness and porosity testing. Hence the result is being evaluated. The corrosion behavior of coating was studied by sea water immersion with a time period of 16 weeks. It is observed that, up to 9 weeks increase in weight of coating occurs in a sharp trend and then takes a decreasing trend. The weight gain of the samples has varied from 37.23% (with one week immersion in sea water) to a maximum of about 64.36% for six weeks immersion. Coating morphology and composition analysis of the coatings are studied using SEM and EDS. This behavior shows adsorption/deposition of the foreign particles with polygonal shape on the coating surface by sea water interaction. Foreign particles with polygonal shape deposited on the coating and with increase in immersion/treatment time, washing out of the deposited materials starts, which reflects the decreasing trend of weight gain of the specimen.

Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

2017-12-01

To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Physical Activity and Heart Rate Variability in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Soares-Miranda, Luisa; Sattelmair, Jacob; Chaves, Paulo; Duncan, Glen; Siscovick, David S; Stein, Phyllis K; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Background Cardiac mortality and electrophysiologic dysfunction both increase with age. Heart rate variability (HRV) provides indices of autonomic function and electrophysiology that are associated with cardiac risk. How habitual physical activity (PA) among older adults prospectively relates to HRV, including nonlinear indices of erratic sinus patterns, is not established. We hypothesized that increasing levels of both total leisure-time activity and walking would be prospectively associated with more favorable time-domain, frequency-domain, and nonlinear HRV measures in older adults. Methods and Results We evaluated serial longitudinal measures of both PA and 24-hour Holter HRV over 5 years among 985 older US adults in the community-based Cardiovascular Health Study. After multivariable adjustment, greater total leisure-time activity, walking distance, and walking pace were each prospectively associated with specific, more favorable HRV indices, including higher 24-hour standard-deviation-of-all-normal-to-normal-intervals (SDNN, p-trend=0.009, 0.02, 0.06, respectively) and ultra-low-frequency-power (p-trend=0.02, 0.008, 0.16, respectively). Greater walking pace was also associated with higher short-term-fractal-scaling-exponent (p-trend=0.003) and lower Poincare ratio (p-trend=0.02), markers of less erratic sinus patterns. Conclusions Greater total leisure-time activity, as well as walking alone, were prospectively associated with more favorable and specific indices of autonomic function in older adults, including several suggestive of more normal circadian fluctuations and less erratic sinoatrial firing. Our results suggest potential mechanisms that might contribute to lower cardiovascular mortality with habitual PA later in life. PMID:24799513

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001–2014

PubMed Central

de Souza, Eliana Amorim; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8–1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9–4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3–6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1–4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females. PMID:29489990

Reductions in nitrogen oxides over Europe driven by environmental policy and economic recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, P.; Boersma, K. F.

2012-04-01

We present a trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 for the time period of 2004-2010 over Europe. Necessary for monitoring pollution abatement strategies, NO2 trends analyses are often based on surface networks, which suffer from poorly quantified NO2 biases and spatial representativity issues inherent to the standard monitoring method. Space based NO2 trends are unbiased and self-consistent, but over Europe they have not been as obvious as those observed over North America and East Asia. In this work we exploit the daily NO2 column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in order to isolate long-term (timescales greater than one year) variability in NO2 over Europe using a time-series separation technique. In general, we find between 2005 and 2008, 1-5% per year declines in NO2 concentration in many polluted regions (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain). In 2009, NO2 almost exclusively decreased over Europe at a rate of 5-10% per year, coinciding with the abrupt decrease in industrial production and construction prompted by the global economic crisis. Thus by the end of 2010, we find substantial reductions in NO2 concentrations of at least 20% throughout Europe. These reductions are as much the result of temporary reductions prompted by the 2008-2009 global economic recession, as of European NOx emission controls. Our results demonstrate that realistic concentration pathways of NO2 do not follow simple linear trends, but reflect a compilation of environmental policy and economic activity.

Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

2017-11-01

An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Wu, Dong L.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2017-03-01

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of 0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to 0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

The imperative for emergency medicine to create its own alternative payment model.

PubMed

Medford-Davis, Laura N

2017-06-01

Seven years after the Affordable Care Act legislated Alternative Payment Models, it is time for Emergency Medicine to find its place within this value-based trend by developing its own Alternative Payment Model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A 6-year trend of the healthcare costs of arthritis in a population-based cohort of older women.

PubMed

Lo, Tkt; Parkinson, Lynne; Cunich, Michelle; Byles, Julie

2016-06-01

To provide an accurate representation of the economic burden of arthritis by estimating the adjusted incremental healthcare cost of arthritis at multiple percentiles and reporting the cost trends across time. A healthcare cost study based on health survey and linked administrative data, where costs were estimated from the government's perspective in dollars per person per year. Quantile regression was used to estimate the adjusted incremental cost at the 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles. Data from 4287 older Australian women were included. The median incremental healthcare cost of arthritis was, in 2012 Australian dollars, $480 (95% CI: $498-759) in 2009; however, 5% of individuals had 5-times higher costs than the 'average individual' with arthritis. Healthcare cost of arthritis did not increase significantly from 2003 to 2009. Healthcare cost of arthritis represents a substantial burden for the governments. Future research should continue to monitor the economic burden of arthritis.

Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

PubMed Central

Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Thasiphu, Thalisa; Weon, Jong-Il; Boonprasert, Rattana; Tuitemwong, Kooranee; Tuitemwong, Pravate

2015-01-01

Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants). In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed. PMID:25884032

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-12-01

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Quantitative analysis of ecological effects for land use planning based on ecological footprint method: a case research in Nanyang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Liu, Yaolin; Chen, Xinming

2008-10-01

The research of coordinated development between land use and ecological building is a new problem with the development of country economy, whose intention is to improve economy development and protect eco-environment in order to realize regional sustainable development. Evaluating human effects on the ecosystem by a comprehensive, scientific and quantitative method is a critical issue in the process of general land use planning. At present, ecological footprint methodology, as an excellent educational tool applicable to global issues, is essential for quantifying humanity's consumption of natural capital, for overall assessments of human impact on earth as well as for general land use planning. However, quantitative studies on the development trends of ecological footprint (EF) time series and biological capacity (BC) time series in a given region are still rare. Taking Nanyang City as a case study, this paper presents two quantitative estimate indices over time scale called the change rate and scissors difference to quantitatively analyze the trends of EF and BC over the planning period in general land use planning form 1997-2004 and to evaluate the ecological effects of the land use general planning form 1997 to.2010. The results showed that: 1 In Nanyang city, trends of the per capita EF and BC were on the way round, and the ecological deficit enhanced from 1997 to 2010. 2 The difference between the two development trends of per capita EF and BC had been increasing rapidly and the conflict between the EF and BC was aggravated from 1997 to 2010. 3 The general land use planning (1997 - 2010) of Nanyang city had produced some positive effects on the local ecosystem, but the expected biological capacity in 2010 can hardly be realized following this trend. Therefore, this paper introduces a "trinity" land use model in the guidelines of environment- friendly land use pattern and based on the actual situation of Nanyang city, with the systemic synthesis of land utilization of the cities, the village and the suburb as a principal part and the land development reorganization and the ecological environment construction as the key point.

Groundwater-quality data in 12 GAMA study units: Results from the 2006–10 initial sampling period and the 2008–13 trend sampling period, California GAMA Priority Basin Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathany, Timothy M.

2017-03-09

The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) program was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board. From 2004 through 2012, the GAMA-PBP collected samples and assessed the quality of groundwater resources that supply public drinking water in 35 study units across the State. Selected sites in each study unit were sampled again approximately 3 years after initial sampling as part of an assessment of temporal trends in water quality by the GAMA-PBP. Twelve of the study units, initially sampled during 2006–11 (initial sampling period) and sampled a second time during 2008–13 (trend sampling period) to assess temporal trends, are the subject of this report.The initial sampling was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of untreated groundwater used for public water supplies in the 12 study units. In these study units, 550 sampling sites were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized, grid-based method to provide spatially unbiased representation of the areas assessed (grid sites, also called “status sites”). After the initial sampling period, 76 of the previously sampled status sites (approximately 10 percent in each study unit) were randomly selected for trend sampling (“trend sites”). The 12 study units sampled both during the initial sampling and during the trend sampling period were distributed among 6 hydrogeologic provinces: Coastal (Northern and Southern), Transverse Ranges and Selected Peninsular Ranges, Klamath, Modoc Plateau and Cascades, and Sierra Nevada Hydrogeologic Provinces. For the purposes of this trend report, the six hydrogeologic provinces were grouped into two hydrogeologic regions based on location: Coastal and Mountain.The groundwater samples were analyzed for a number of synthetic organic constituents (volatile organic compounds, pesticides, and pesticide degradates), constituents of special interest (perchlorate and 1,2,3-trichloropropane), and natural inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements). Isotopic tracers (tritium, carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water) also were measured to help identify processes affecting groundwater quality and the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. More than 200 constituents and water-quality indicators were measured during the trend sampling period.Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, matrix-spikes, and surrogate compounds) were collected at about one-third of the trend sites, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. On the basis of detections in laboratory and field blank samples collected by GAMA-PBP study units, including the 12 study units presented here, reporting levels for some groundwater results were adjusted in this report. Differences between replicate samples were mostly within acceptable ranges, indicating low variability in analytical results. Matrix-spike recoveries were largely within the acceptable range (70 to 130 percent).This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers. After withdrawal, groundwater used for drinking water typically is treated, disinfected, and blended with other waters to achieve acceptable water quality. The comparison benchmarks used in this report apply to treated water that is served to the consumer, not to untreated groundwater. To provide some context for the results, however, concentrations of constituents measured in these groundwater samples were compared with benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the State of California. Comparisons between data collected for this study and benchmarks for drinking water are for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of compliance or non-compliance with those benchmarks.Most organic constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the trend sites were found at concentrations less than health-based benchmarks. One volatile organic compound—perchloroethene—was detected at a concentration greater than the health-based benchmark in samples from one trend site during the initial and trend sampling periods. Chloroform was detected in at least 10 percent of the samples at trend sites in both sampling periods. Methyl tert-butyl ether was detected in samples from more than 10 percent of the trend sites during the initial sampling period. No pesticide or pesticide degradate was detected in greater than 10 percent of the samples from trend sites or at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks during either sampling period. Nutrients were not detected at concentrations greater than their health-based benchmarks during either sampling period.Most detections of major ions and trace elements in samples from trend sites were less than health-based benchmarks during both sampling periods. Arsenic and boron each were detected at concentrations greater than the health-based benchmark in samples from four trend sites during the initial and trend sampling periods. Molybdenum was detected in samples from four trend sites at concentrations greater than the health-based benchmark during both sampling periods. Samples from two of these trend sites had similar molybdenum concentrations, and two had substantially different concentrations during the initial and trend sampling periods. Uranium was detected at a concentration greater than the health-based benchmark only at two trend sites.

Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.

Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

PubMed

Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

2012-02-01

To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008), postoperative bleeding (2.6%; 1.2%) and re-operations (4.5%; 2.8%). The mean hospitalization time decreased accordingly (10 days in 2005; 8 days in 2008). The examined subcohort had an overall mortality of 1.5% (median follow-up of 3 years). An Internet-based database system for tumour documentation in patients with prostate cancer enables the collection and assessment of important parameters for the quality of care and outcomes. The participating centres show an improvement in the quality of surgical management, including a reduction of the complication rate. © 2011 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Analysis of CO, CH4 and AOD distributions over Eurasia and estimates of their long-term tendencies based on spectroscopic ground-based and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakitin, Vadim; Elansky, Nikolai; Shtabkin, Yury; Dzhola, Anatoly; Pankratova, Natalia; Shilkin, Arseny

2017-04-01

Analysis of the CO and CH4 total column (TC) measurements and AOD data in urban and background regions of Eurasia for period from 1998 to 2016 years is presented. The trends estimates based on spectroscopic ground-based datasets of OIAP, SPSU, IAP CAC, NPO "Typhoon" and NDACC were compared with similar ones obtained with use of orbital data (MOPITT v6J and AIRS v6). Total decrease of CO TC in both urban (Moscow and Beijing) and background regions (ZSS, Peterhof, Obninsk, European NDACC sites) in 1998-2016 years changed to increase of CO in summer and autumn months in almost all background regions of Northern Eurasia after 2007. Negative trends of AOD were obtained for Europe, West Siberia and China for different seasons (including summer and autumn months) for time periods 2000-2016 and 2007-2016 with using both AERONET and MODIS Terra/Aqua datasets; AOD trends over East Siberia were positive that dui to influence of strong wild fires in 2010-2016 years in Siberia. Rate of CO TC decrease obtained with orbital data using are less than the same for ground based data with factor 1.5-2.0 for both urban and background regions. Rate of CH4 TC increased after 2007 in North-West Eurasian regions and didn't change in most of North-East regions. The negative AOD trends over Europe and West Siberia indirectly point to non-increase of wild-fires emissions over this region in latest years. Therefore the positive CO TC trends cannot be explained only by increase of wild-fires impact and anthropogenic emissions; possible reasons of such CO tendencies could be the changes in all atmospheric photochemistry system. This work was supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation under grant №14-47-00049 (in part of NDACC, AERONET and satellite trends estimates), under grant №16-17-10275 (in part of analysis of ground-based observations over Moscow and Obninsk) and partially by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant № 16-05-00287 in part of provide of ground-based spectroscopic measurements in Moscow and Beijing sites).

Time trends and patterns of reported egg consumption in the U.S. by sociodemographic characteristics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objectives: To 1) describe time trends of the percentage of individuals in the U.S that consume eggs, 2) describe time trends of the daily amount of eggs consumed per day, and 3) examine differences in the amount of eggs consumed per day; overall and by gender, age, income, education, race-ethnicit...

How Do You Determine Whether The Earth Is Warming Up?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo, J. M.; Comeau, D.; Flaschka, H.

2012-12-01

How does one determine whether the extreme summer temperatures in the North East of the US, or in Moscow during the summer of 2010, was an extreme weather fluctuation or the result of a systematic global climate warming trend? It is only under exceptional circumstances that one can determine whether an observational climate signal belongs to a particular statistical distribution. In fact, observed climate signals are rarely "statistical" and thus there is usually no way to rigorously obtain enough field data to produce a trend or tendency, based upon data alone. Furthermore, this type of data is often multi-scale. We propose a trend or tendency methodology that does not make use of a parametric or a statistical assumption. The most important feature of this trend strategy is that it is defined in very precise mathematical terms. The tendency is easily understood and practical, and its algorithmic realization is fairly robust. In addition to proposing a trend, the methodology can be adopted to generate surrogate statistical models, useful in reduced filtering schemes of time dependent processes.

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests.

PubMed

Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

2014-01-01

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1-0.2 g m(-2) year(-1) with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m(-2) year(-1) is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO3(-)/SO4(2-) and NH4(+)/SO4(2-) in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

The increase in symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood among Icelandic adolescents: time trend between 2006 and 2016.

PubMed

Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg E; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis B; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Allegrante, John P; Sigfusdottir, Inga D

2017-10-01

Both research and popular media reports suggest that adolescent mental health has been deteriorating across societies with advanced economies. This study sought to describe the trends in self-reported symptoms of depressed mood and anxiety among Icelandic adolescents. Data for this study come from repeated, cross-sectional, population-based school surveys of 43 482 Icelandic adolescents in 9th and 10th grade, with six waves of pooled data from 2006 to 2016. We used analysis of variance, linear regression and binomial logistic regression to examine trends in symptom scores of anxiety and depressed mood over time. Gender differences in trends of high symptoms were also tested for interactions. Linear regression analysis showed a significant linear increase over the course of the study period in mean symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood for girls only; however, symptoms of anxiety among boys decreased. The proportion of adolescents reporting high depressive symptoms increased by 1.6% for boys and 6.8% for girls; the proportion of those reporting high anxiety symptoms increased by 1.3% for boys and 8.6% for girls. Over the study period, the odds for reporting high depressive symptoms and high anxiety symptoms were significantly higher for both genders. Girls were more likely to report high symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood than boys. Self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood have increased over time among Icelandic adolescents. Our findings suggest that future research needs to look beyond mean changes and examine the trends among those adolescents who report high symptoms of emotional distress. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerry

2014-05-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.

2014-12-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

Dance-based therapy in a program of all-inclusive care for the elderly: an integrative approach to decrease fall risk.

PubMed

Krampe, Jean; Rantz, Marilyn J; Dowell, Laura; Schamp, Richard; Skubic, Marjorie; Abbott, Carmen

2010-01-01

Loss of balance and diminished gait are major fall risk factors in older persons. Literature suggests that physical activity based on dance may improve balance and gait. The aim of this pilot study was to determine whether dance-based therapy affects the balance/gait of community-based frail seniors. The Roy Adaptation Model and Environmental Press Theory were used as joint frameworks. Eleven participants were recruited from a Program of All-inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Inclusion criteria were (1) Mini-Mental State Examination score of 23 or more, (2) attending PACE on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and (3) able to stand with or without assistance. A Lebed Method dance intervention was conducted using a longitudinal design 3 times a week for 6 weeks. Functional Reach and Timed Get Up and Go were measured at baseline, 6 weeks after the start of the intervention, and 6 weeks postintervention and repeated to estimate the persistence of the effect. Graphs were compared looking for functional trends; postintervention interviews were conducted with each subject. Dance therapy results in positive functional trends, suggesting that further study using dance-based therapy will be useful to decrease fall risks in older persons.

Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987–2014

PubMed Central

Zhong, Bao-Liang; Chiu, Helen F. K.; Conwell, Yeates

2016-01-01

In the context of rapid ageing, understanding the time-trend of elderly suicide (ES) could inform China’s efforts on suicide prevention. We examined time-trends in Chinese ES rates (ESRs) from 1987 to 2014, a period of profound social changes. Suicide rates by residence (rural/urban), gender, and 5-year age-group (65+) in 1987–2014 were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. Time-trends were analyzed with joinpoint analysis. The time-trend of national ESRs was downward (average annual percent change [AAPC] = −3.7, P < 0.001): 76.6/100000 in 1987 and 30.2/100000 in 2014. However, the time-trend of corresponding percentages of ESs among the total suicides was monotonically increasing (AAPC = 3.4, P < 0.001): 16.9% in 1987 to 41.2% in 2014. The time-trends in ESRs of both rural and urban men and women were decreasing, but only the rural trends were significant (P < 0.001). Rural-urban and male-female differences in ESRs were decreasing over time (slope = −4.2 and −3.0, P ≤ 0.006), but the rural-urban and male-female ESR differences in 2014 remained large (16.3/100000 and 9.8/100000, P < 0.001). While national ESRs decreased significantly during the past three decades, the current ESR remains high in China. Further, the age-pattern of Chinese suicide is transitioning to elderly predominance. ES, particularly rural ES, should be a public health priority in China. PMID:27886219

Seventy years of stream‐fish collections reveal invasions and native range contractions in an Appalachian (USA) watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckwalter, Joseph D.; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Barney, Jacob N.

2018-01-01

AimKnowledge of expanding and contracting ranges is critical for monitoring invasions and assessing conservation status, yet reliable data on distributional trends are lacking for most freshwater species. We developed a quantitative technique to detect the sign (expansion or contraction) and functional form of range‐size changes for freshwater species based on collections data, while accounting for possible biases due to variable collection effort. We applied this technique to quantify stream‐fish range expansions and contractions in a highly invaded river system.LocationUpper and middle New River (UMNR) basin, Appalachian Mountains, USA.MethodsWe compiled a 77‐year stream‐fish collections dataset partitioned into ten time periods. To account for variable collection effort among time periods, we aggregated the collections into 100 watersheds and expressed a species’ range size as detections per watershed (HUC) sampled (DPHS). We regressed DPHS against time by species and used an information‐theoretic approach to compare linear and nonlinear functional forms fitted to the data points and to classify each species as spreader, stable or decliner.ResultsWe analysed changes in range size for 74 UMNR fishes, including 35 native and 39 established introduced species. We classified the majority (51%) of introduced species as spreaders, compared to 31% of natives. An exponential functional form fits best for 84% of spreaders. Three natives were among the most rapid spreaders. All four decliners were New River natives.Main conclusionsOur DPHS‐based approach facilitated quantitative analyses of distributional trends for stream fishes based on collections data. Partitioning the dataset into multiple time periods allowed us to distinguish long‐term trends from population fluctuations and to examine nonlinear forms of spread. Our framework sets the stage for further study of drivers of stream‐fish invasions and declines in the UMNR and is widely transferable to other freshwater taxa and geographic regions.

Trend analysis of vegetation in Louisiana's Atchafalaya river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neil, Calvin P.; deSteiguer, J. Edward; North, Gary W.

1978-01-01

The purpose of the study was to determine vegetation succession trends; produce a current vegetation map of the basin; and to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting vegetation changes based on hydrologic factors. A statistical relationship of forests and hydrological variables with forest succession constraints predicted forest acreage totals for 16 forest categories within 70% or better of actual values in two-thirds of the cases. Using time-lapsed photography covering 42 years, 23 categories were described. The succession trend of vegetation since 1930, by sedimentation, had been toward mixed hardwoods, except for isolated areas. Satellite MSS Band 7 imagery was used to map the current vegetation into three main categories and for assessment of acreage. Additionally, a geological anomaly was recognized on satellite imagery indication an effect on drainage and sedimentation.

A project investigating music therapy referral trends within palliative care: an Australian perspective.

PubMed

Horne-Thompson, Anne; Daveson, Barbara; Hogan, Bridgit

2007-01-01

The purpose of this project is to analyze music therapy (MT) referral trends from palliative care team members across nine Australian inpatient and community-based palliative care settings. For each referral 6 items were collected: referral source, reason and type; time from Palliative Care Program (PCP) admission to MT referral; time from MT referral to death/discharge; and profile of referred patient. Participants (196 female, 158 male) were referred ranging in age from 4-98 years and most were diagnosed with cancer (91%, n = 323). Nurses (47%, n = 167) referred most frequently to music therapy. The mean average time in days for all referrals from PCP admission to MT referral was 11.47 and then 5.19 days to time of death. Differences in length of time to referral ranged from 8.19 days (allied health staff) to 43.75 days (families). Forty-eight percent of referrals (48.5%, n = 172) were completed when the patient was rated at an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance (ECOG) of three. Sixty-nine percent (n = 244) were living with others at the time of referral and most were Australian born. Thirty-six percent (36.7%, n = 130) were referred for symptom-based reasons, and 24.5% (n = 87) for support and coping. Implications for service delivery of music therapy practice, interdisciplinary care and benchmarking of music therapy services shall be discussed.

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

Influence of a priori profiles on trend calculations from Umkehr data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateer, C. L.; Dütsch, H. U.; Staehelin, J.; Deluisi, J. J.

1996-07-01

Although the new (1992) ozone profile retrieval algorithm for Umkehr measurements provides much better agreement with ozone sounding results than the old (1964) algorithm, considerable discrepancies remain with respect to ozone trends at different levels in the atmosphere. These discrepancies have been found by the comparison of long-term trends obtained from the Umkehr measurements at Arosa and the ozone balloon soundings at Payerne (Switzerland). It is investigated here whether these obvious discrepancies can be removed by using time-dependent a priori profiles. This procedure is successful only in the lowest part of the atmosphere, below about 19 km. To further explore this problem, synthetic Umkehr observations are calculated from the ozonesonde profiles. Trends are calculated for both the synthetic and actual Umkehr observations. The difference pattern between these Umkehr observation trends is compared with the difference in ozone profile retrieval trends from the synthetic and actual observations. The distinctive difference patterns strongly indicate an inherent disagreement between the Umkehr observations and the ozonesonde profiles. The application of corrections for stratospheric aerosol effects to the Umkehr profiles reduces, but does not eliminate, a discrepancy above 32 km. It is concluded that the discrepancies are due to the constant mixing ratio assumption used in computing the residual ozone above balloon burst level and to the fair-weather bias of Umkehr observations (there are Umkehr observations at Arosa on fewer than 20% of the sonde observation days at Payerne). This sampling difference influences the results for the lower stratosphere. The study furthermore indicates that the ozone trends derived from Umkehr measurements for altitudes above about 32 km are robust for time-dependent changes in the a priori profiles at lower altitudes. Based on the results of this study, we conclude with revised recommendations as to which atmospheric layers should be used for Umkehr trend studies.

Dynamical adjustment of Scandinavian glacier mass-balance time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, D.; Christian, J. E.; Christianson, K. A.

2017-12-01

Glacier mass wastage is often cited as one of the most visible manifestations of anthropogenic climate change. Annual glacier mass-balance is related to local climate and atmospheric circulation, as it is defined as the yearly sum of accumulation and ablation—processes that are strongly influenced by year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. Glacier response to a climatic trend can, however, be masked by internal variability in atmospheric circulation, and by non-climatic factors (such as topographic control, wind deposition, and incident solar radiation). Thus, unambiguous attribution of a negative glacier mass-balance trend to anthropogenic forcing remains challenging. Maritime glacier mass-balance records may be especially difficult to interpret due to the high winter balances from decadal-scale climate oscillations and the relatively short time series. Here we examine the influence of climate and atmospheric circulation variability on 14 Norwegian glaciers that span 20° of latitude, from southern Norway to Svalbard. We use dynamical adjustment—a statistical method based on partial least squares regression—to identify the components of variability within the mass-balance records that are associated with the time-varying sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. We find that 30-50% of the variance in the winter mass-balance records of the glaciers in southern Norway is explained by using sea level pressure as a predictor. The leading SLP predictor pattern mimics the spatial signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that winter balance is strongly influenced by the NAO. Moreover, the adjusted mass-balance records indicate a geographic trend: the southern Norwegian glaciers have significant negative trends in the summer balance that remain negative after adjustment, while the more northern glaciers have negative winter balance trends that only become significant after adjustment. We look into anthropogenic warming to explain the trends after dynamical adjustment.

Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-05-01

Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 C.E., which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5-3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue.