Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China

PubMed Central

Chen, Jing; Zou, Lan; Jin, Zhen; Ruan, Shigui

2015-01-01

In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance. PMID:26020234

On the Reproduction Number of a Gut Microbiota Model.

PubMed

Barril, Carles; Calsina, Àngel; Ripoll, Jordi

2017-11-01

A spatially structured linear model of the growth of intestinal bacteria is analysed from two generational viewpoints. Firstly, the basic reproduction number associated with the bacterial population, i.e. the expected number of daughter cells per bacterium, is given explicitly in terms of biological parameters. Secondly, an alternative quantity is introduced based on the number of bacteria produced within the intestine by one bacterium originally in the external media. The latter depends on the parameters in a simpler way and provides more biological insight than the standard reproduction number, allowing the design of experimental procedures. Both quantities coincide and are equal to one at the extinction threshold, below which the bacterial population becomes extinct. Optimal values of both reproduction numbers are derived assuming parameter trade-offs.

Dynamics analysis of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks.

PubMed

Liu, Guirong; Liu, Zhimei; Jin, Zhen

2018-05-07

We establish an SIS-UAU model to present the dynamics of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks. The overlay network is represented by two layers: one where the dynamics of the epidemic evolves and another where the information spreads. We theoretically derive the explicit formulas for the basic reproduction number of awareness R 0 a by analyzing the self-consistent equation and the basic reproduction number of disease R 0 d by using the next generation matrix. The formula of R 0 d shows that the effect of awareness can reduce the basic reproduction number of disease. In particular, when awareness does not affect epidemic spreading, R 0 d is shown to match the existing theoretical results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d <1; and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d >1. Finally, numerical simulations show that information plays a vital role in preventing and controlling disease and effectively reduces the final disease scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yunhwan; Lee, Sunmi; Chu, Chaeshin; Choe, Seoyun; Hong, Saeme; Shin, Youngseo

2016-02-01

The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic.

PubMed

d'Albis, Hippolyte; Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle; Djemai, Elodie; Ducrot, Arnaud

2012-01-01

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

Estimating finite-population reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay T; Dushoff, Jonathan

2016-05-21

The basic reproductive number, R0, is one of the most important epidemiological quantities. R0 provides a threshold for elimination and determines when a disease can spread or when a disease will die out. Classically, R0 is calculated assuming an infinite population of identical hosts. Previous work has shown that heterogeneity in the host mixing rate increases R0 in an infinite population. However, it has been suggested that in a finite population, heterogeneity in the mixing rate may actually decrease the finite-population reproductive numbers. Here, we outline a framework for discussing different types of heterogeneity in disease parameters, and how these affect disease spread and control. We calculate "finite-population reproductive numbers" with different types of heterogeneity, and show that in a finite population, heterogeneity has complicated effects on the reproductive number. We find that simple heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive number, whereas heterogeneity in the intrinsic mixing rate (which affects both infectiousness and susceptibility) increases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is small relative to the size of the population and decreases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is large relative to the size of the population. Although heterogeneity has complicated effects on the finite-population reproductive numbers, its implications for control are straightforward: when R0 is large relative to the size of the population, heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive numbers, making disease control or elimination easier than predicted by R0. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

PubMed

Bacaër, Nicolas

2009-10-01

This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

Mathematical model for Dengue with three states of infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincapie, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

2012-06-01

A mathematical model for dengue with three states of infection is proposed and analyzed. The model consists in a system of differential equations. The three states of infection are respectively asymptomatic, partially asymptomatic and fully asymptomatic. The model is analyzed using computer algebra software, specifically Maple, and the corresponding basic reproductive number and the epidemic threshold are computed. The resulting basic reproductive number is an algebraic synthesis of all epidemic parameters and it makes clear the possible control measures. The microscopic structure of the epidemic parameters is established using the quantum theory of the interactions between the atoms and radiation. In such approximation, the human individual is represented by an atom and the mosquitoes are represented by radiation. The force of infection from the mosquitoes to the humans is considered as the transition probability from the fundamental state of atom to excited states. The combination of computer algebra software and quantum theory provides a very complete formula for the basic reproductive number and the possible control measures tending to stop the propagation of the disease. It is claimed that such result may be important in military medicine and the proposed method can be applied to other vector-borne diseases.

Model for disease dynamics of a waterborne pathogen on a random network.

PubMed

Li, Meili; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

2015-10-01

A network epidemic SIWR model for cholera and other diseases that can be transmitted via the environment is developed and analyzed. The person-to-person contacts are modeled by a random contact network, and the contagious environment is modeled by an external node that connects to every individual. The model is adapted from the Miller network SIR model, and in the homogeneous mixing limit becomes the Tien and Earn deterministic cholera model without births and deaths. The dynamics of our model shows excellent agreement with stochastic simulations. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed, and on a Poisson network shown to be the sum of the basic reproduction numbers of the person-to-person and person-to-water-to-person transmission pathways. However, on other networks, [Formula: see text] depends nonlinearly on the transmission along the two pathways. Type reproduction numbers are computed and quantify measures to control the disease. Equations giving the final epidemic size are obtained.

Analytic calculation of finite-population reproductive numbers for direct- and vector-transmitted diseases with homogeneous mixing.

PubMed

Keegan, Lindsay; Dushoff, Jonathan

2014-05-01

The basic reproductive number, R0, provides a foundation for evaluating how various factors affect the incidence of infectious diseases. Recently, it has been suggested that, particularly for vector-transmitted diseases, R0 should be modified to account for the effects of finite host population within a single disease transmission generation. Here, we use a transmission factor approach to calculate such "finite-population reproductive numbers," under the assumption of homogeneous mixing, for both vector-borne and directly transmitted diseases. In the case of vector-borne diseases, we estimate finite-population reproductive numbers for both host-to-host and vector-to-vector generations, assuming that the vector population is effectively infinite. We find simple, interpretable formulas for all three of these quantities. In the direct case, we find that finite-population reproductive numbers diverge from R0 before R0 reaches half of the population size. In the vector-transmitted case, we find that the host-to-host number diverges at even lower values of R0, while the vector-to-vector number diverges very little over realistic parameter ranges.

Dynamical Analysis of an SEIT Epidemic Model with Application to Ebola Virus Transmission in Guinea.

PubMed

Li, Zhiming; Teng, Zhidong; Feng, Xiaomei; Li, Yingke; Zhang, Huiguo

2015-01-01

In order to investigate the transmission mechanism of the infectious individual with Ebola virus, we establish an SEIT (susceptible, exposed in the latent period, infectious, and treated/recovery) epidemic model. The basic reproduction number is defined. The mathematical analysis on the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is given. As the applications of the model, we use the recognized infectious and death cases in Guinea to estimate parameters of the model by the least square method. With suitable parameter values, we obtain the estimated value of the basic reproduction number and analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty property by partial rank correlation coefficients.

Analysis of recruitment and industrial human resources management for optimal productivity in the presence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

PubMed

Okosun, Kazeem O; Makinde, Oluwole D; Takaidza, Isaac

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the recruitment effects of susceptible and infected individuals in order to assess the productivity of an organizational labor force in the presence of HIV/AIDS with preventive and HAART treatment measures in enhancing the workforce output. We consider constant controls as well as time-dependent controls. In the constant control case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model is found to exhibit backward and Hopf bifurcations, implying that for the disease to be eradicated, the basic reproductive number must be below a critical value of less than one. We also investigate, by calculating sensitivity indices, the sensitivity of the basic reproductive number to the model's parameters. In the time-dependent control case, we use Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results. The cost-effectiveness analysis results show that optimal efforts on recruitment (HIV screening of applicants, etc.) is not the most cost-effective strategy to enhance productivity in the organizational labor force. Hence, to enhance employees' productivity, effective education programs and strict adherence to preventive measures should be promoted.

Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks.

PubMed

Villela, D A M; Bastos, L S; DE Carvalho, L M; Cruz, O G; Gomes, M F C; Durovni, B; Lemos, M C; Saraceni, V; Coelho, F C; Codeço, C T

2017-06-01

Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged. Our estimates of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro based on surveillance notifications (R 0 = 2·33, 95% CI: 1·97-2·97) were higher than those obtained for dengue in the city (year 2002: R 0 = 1·70 [1·50-2·02]; year 2012: R 0 = 1·25 [1·18-1·36]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as vector of both the Zika and dengue viruses, we also derive R 0 of Zika as a function of both dengue reproduction number and entomological and epidemiological parameters for dengue and Zika. Using the dengue outbreaks from previous years allowed us to estimate the potential R 0 of Zika. Our estimates were closely in agreement with our first Zika's R 0 estimation from notification data. Hence, these results validate deriving the potential risk of Zika transmission in areas with recurring dengue outbreaks. Whether transmission routes other than vector-based can sustain a Zika epidemic still deserves attention, but our results suggest that the Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro emerged due to population susceptibility and ubiquitous presence of Ae. aegypti.

Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

2017-02-01

In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008–2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Mukandavire, Zindoga; Liao, Shu; Wang, Jin; Gaff, Holly; Smith, David L.; Morris, J. Glenn

2011-01-01

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, 2009. A mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive numbers R0 and the partial reproductive numbers from all 10 provinces for the 2008–2009 Zimbabwe cholera epidemic. Estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, ranging from a low value of just above unity to 2.72. Partial reproductive numbers were also highly heterogeneous, suggesting that the transmission routes varied by province; human-to-human transmission accounted for 41–95% of all transmission. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from province to province, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks in different provinces to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of cholera transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. The lack of traditional estuarine reservoirs combined with these estimates of R0 suggest that mass vaccination against cholera deployed strategically in Zimbabwe and surrounding regions could prevent future cholera epidemics and eventually eliminate cholera from the region. PMID:21518855

Assisted human reproduction--legal rights of the unborn in respect of avoidable damage.

PubMed

Adam, G M

2007-06-01

The author describes various risks to the foetus arising from assisted reproduction technology (ART). These risks are examined from the legal viewpoint, especially considering the rights of the foetus as interpreted in a number of jurisdictions. He distinguishes between the avoidable and inherent risks to the foetus resulting from ART and the potential hazards of ART relevant to criminal law. The basic internationally accepted conventions on foetal rights are compared relative to decisions in a number of cases heard and decided.

A multiscale model on hospital infections coupling macro and micro dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xia; Tang, Sanyi

2017-09-01

A multiscale model of hospital infections coupling the micro model of the growth of bacteria and the macro model describing the transmission of the bacteria among patients and health care workers (HCWs) was established to investigate the effects of antibiotic treatment on the transmission of the bacteria among patients and HCWs. The model was formulated by viewing the transmission rate from infected patients to HCWs and the shedding rate of bacteria from infected patients to the environment as saturated functions of the within-host bacterial load. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number of the coupled system were studied, and the global dynamics of the disease free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were analyzed in detail by constructing two Lyapunov functions. Furthermore, effects of drug treatment in the within-host model on the basic reproduction number and the dynamics of the coupled model were studied by coupling a pharmacokinetics model with the within-host model. Sensitive analysis indicated that the growth rate of the bacteria, the maximum drug effect and the dosing interval are the three most sensitive parameters contributing to the basic reproduction number. Thus, adopting ;wonder; drugs to decrease the growth rate of the bacteria or to increase the drug's effect is the most effective measure but changing the dosage regime is also effective. A quantitative criterion of how to choose the best dosage regimen can also be obtained from numerical results.

Modelling the effects of contaminated environments on HFMD infections in mainland China.

PubMed

Wang, Jinyan; Xiao, Yanni; Cheke, Robert A

2016-02-01

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in mainland China increasing in prevalence in most years with serious consequences for child health. The HFMD virus can survive for a long period outside the host in suitable conditions, and hence contaminated environments may play important roles in HFMD infection. A new mathematical model was proposed and used to investigate the roles that asymptomatic individuals and contaminated environments played in HFMD dynamics. The model includes both direct transmission between susceptible and infected individuals and indirect transmission via free-living infectious unites in the environment. Theoretical analysis shows that the disease goes to extinction if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, whilst otherwise the disease persists. By fitting the proposed model to surveillance data we estimated the basic reproduction number as 1.509. Numerical simulations show that increasing the rate of virus clearance and decreasing transmission rates can delay epidemic outbreaks and weaken the severity of HFMD. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the basic reproduction number is sensitive to the transmission rate induced by asymptomatic infectious individuals and parameters associated with contaminated environments such as the indirect transmission rate, the rate of clearance and the virus shedding rates. This implies that asymptomatic infectious individuals and contaminated environments contribute substantially to new HFMD infections, and so would be targets for effective control measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of a general SIS model with infective vectors on the complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juang, Jonq; Liang, Yu-Hao

2015-11-01

A general SIS model with infective vectors on complex networks is studied in this paper. In particular, the model considers the linear combination of three possible routes of disease propagation between infected and susceptible individuals as well as two possible transmission types which describe how the susceptible vectors attack the infected individuals. A new technique based on the basic reproduction matrix is introduced to obtain the following results. First, necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the model through a unified approach. As a result, we are able to produce the exact basic reproduction number and the precise epidemic thresholds with respect to three spreading strengths, the curing strength or the immunization strength all at once. Second, the monotonicity of the basic reproduction number and the above mentioned epidemic thresholds with respect to all other parameters can be rigorously characterized. Finally, we are able to compare the effectiveness of various immunization strategies under the assumption that the number of persons getting vaccinated is the same for all strategies. In particular, we prove that in the scale-free networks, both targeted and acquaintance immunizations are more effective than uniform and active immunizations and that active immunization is the least effective strategy among those four. We are also able to determine how the vaccine should be used at minimum to control the outbreak of the disease.

Modelling the effects of treatment and quarantine on measles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beay, Lazarus Kalvein

2018-03-01

Treatment and quarantine are efforts to cure as well as to overcome the spread of diseases including measles. The spread of measles can be expressed by mathematical modelling in the form of nonlinear dynamical systems. In this study was conducted on the spread of measles by considering the effect of treatment and quarantine on the infected individuals. By using the basic reproduction number of the model, can be analyzed the effects of treatment and quarantine to reduce the spread of measles. Basic reproduction number of models is monotonically descreasing as treatment and quarantine increasing. Numerical simulations conducted on the analysis of the results. The results showed that treatment and quarantine was given to infected individuals who were infectious has a major influence to eliminate measles from the system.

Reproduction numbers for infections with free-living pathogens growing in the environment.

PubMed

Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Gautam, Raju; Shuai, Zhisheng; van den Driessche, P; Ivanek, Renata

2012-01-01

The basic reproduction number ℛ(0) for a compartmental disease model is often calculated by the next generation matrix (NGM) approach. When the interactions within and between disease compartments are interpreted differently, the NGM approach may lead to different ℛ(0) expressions. This is demonstrated by considering a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model with free-living pathogen (FLP) growing in the environment. Although the environment could play different roles in the disease transmission process, leading to different ℛ(0) expressions, there is a unique type reproduction number when control strategies are applied to the host population. All ℛ(0) expressions agree on the threshold value 1 and preserve their order of magnitude. However, using data for salmonellosis and cholera, it is shown that the estimated ℛ(0) values are substantially different. This study highlights the utility and limitations of reproduction numbers to accurately quantify the effects of control strategies for infections with FLPs growing in the environment.

Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Chen, Shi; Sanderson, Michael W; Lee, Chihoon; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Renter, David G; Lanzas, Cristina

2016-09-15

Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Sanderson, Michael W.; Lee, Chihoon; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Renter, David G.; Lanzas, Cristina

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. IMPORTANCE In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We incorporated different sensitivity levels of detecting different serotypes and evaluated their potential influence on the estimation of basic reproduction numbers. PMID:27401976

Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I. Definition and calculation of R0

PubMed Central

Pellis, Lorenzo; Ball, Frank; Trapman, Pieter

2012-01-01

The basic reproduction number R0 is one of the most important quantities in epidemiology. However, for epidemic models with explicit social structure involving small mixing units such as households, its definition is not straightforward and a wealth of other threshold parameters has appeared in the literature. In this paper, we use branching processes to define R0, we apply this definition to models with households or other more complex social structures and we provide methods for calculating it. PMID:22085761

Global stability for an HIV-1 infection model with Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate and CTL immune response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Cuifang; Huang, Lihong; Yuan, Zhaohui

2014-01-01

In this paper, an HIV-1 infection model with Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate and CTL immune response is investigated. One main feature of this model is that an eclipse stage for the infected cells is included and a portion of these cells is reverted to uninfected cells. We derive the basic reproduction number R1 and the immune response reproduction number R2 for the HIV-1 infection model. By constructing Lyapunov functions, the global stabilities for the equilibria have been analyzed.

Global dynamics of a network-based SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shouying; Chen, Fengde; Chen, Lijuan

2017-02-01

This paper investigates a new SIQRS epidemic model with demographics and vaccination on complex heterogeneous networks. We analytically derive the basic reproduction number R0, which determines not only the existence of endemic equilibrium but also the global dynamics of the model. The permanence of the disease and the globally asymptotical stability of disease-free equilibrium are proved in detail. By using a monotone iterative technique, we show that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally attractive under certain conditions. Our results really improve and enrich the results in Li et al (2014) [14]. Interestingly, the basic reproduction number R0 bears no relation to the degree-dependent birth, but our simulations indicate that the degree-dependent birth does affect the epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, we find that quarantine plays a more active role than vaccination in controlling the disease.

Exploiting rRNA operon copy number to investigate bacterial reproductive strategies.

PubMed

Roller, Benjamin R K; Stoddard, Steven F; Schmidt, Thomas M

2016-09-12

The potential for rapid reproduction is a hallmark of microbial life, but microbes in nature must also survive and compete when growth is constrained by resource availability. Successful reproduction requires different strategies when resources are scarce and when they are abundant 1,2 , but a systematic framework for predicting these reproductive strategies in bacteria has not been available. Here, we show that the number of ribosomal RNA operons (rrn) in bacterial genomes predicts two important components of reproduction-growth rate and growth efficiency-which are favoured under contrasting regimes of resource availability 3,4 . We find that the maximum reproductive rate of bacteria doubles with a doubling of rrn copy number, and the efficiency of carbon use is inversely related to maximal growth rate and rrn copy number. We also identify a feasible explanation for these patterns: the rate and yield of protein synthesis mirror the overall pattern in maximum growth rate and growth efficiency. Furthermore, comparative analysis of genomes from 1,167 bacterial species reveals that rrn copy number predicts traits associated with resource availability, including chemotaxis and genome streamlining. Genome-wide patterns of orthologous gene content covary with rrn copy number, suggesting convergent evolution in response to resource availability. Our findings imply that basic cellular processes adapt in contrasting ways to long-term differences in resource availability. They also establish a basis for predicting changes in bacterial community composition in response to resource perturbations using rrn copy number measurements 5 or inferences 6,7 .

Reproduction in the endangered African wild dog: basic physiology, reproductive suppression and possible benefits of artificial insemination.

PubMed

Van den Berghe, F; Paris, D B B P; Van Soom, A; Rijsselaere, T; Van der Weyde, L; Bertschinger, H J; Paris, M C J

2012-07-01

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is an endangered exotic canid with less than 5500 animals remaining in the wild. Despite numerous strategies to conserve this species, numbers of free-living animals are in decline. It is a highly social species with a complex pack structure: separate male and female dominant hierarchies with, typically, participation of subdominant adults in the rearing of the dominant breeding pairs' pups. Basic reproductive knowledge is largely missing in this species, with only limited information available on the profile of reproductive hormones, based on non-invasive endocrine monitoring. The dominant or alpha male and female are reproductively active and the subdominants are generally reproductively suppressed. However, the occasional production of litters by subdominant females and evidence of multiple paternity within litters suggests that fertility of subordinates is not completely inhibited. In this respect, there are still considerable gaps in our knowledge about the mechanisms governing reproduction and reproductive suppression in African wild dogs, particularly the influence of dominance and pack structure on both male and female fertility. Given concerns over the long-term survival of this species, further research in this area is essential to provide valuable information for their captive breeding and conservation. Reproductive information can also be applied to the development of Assisted Reproductive Techniques for this species; the utility of which in African wild dog conservation is also discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number for African Swine Fever Using the Ukrainian Historical Epidemic of 1977.

PubMed

Korennoy, F I; Gulenkin, V M; Gogin, A E; Vergne, T; Karaulov, A K

2017-12-01

In 1977, Ukraine experienced a local epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in the Odessa region. A total of 20 settlements were affected during the course of the epidemic, including both large farms and backyard households. Thanks to timely interventions, the virus circulation was successfully eradicated within 6 months, leading to no additional outbreaks. Detailed report of the outbreak's investigation has been publically available from 2014. The report contains some quantitative data that allow studying the ASF-spread dynamics in the course of the epidemic. In our study, we used this historical epidemic to estimate the basic reproductive number of the ASF virus both within and between farms. The basic reproductive number (R 0 ) represents the average number of secondary infections caused by one infectious unit during its infectious period in a susceptible population. Calculations were made under assumption of an exponential initial growth by fitting the approximating curve to the initial segments of the epidemic curves. The R 0 both within farm and between farms was estimated at 7.46 (95% confidence interval: 5.68-9.21) and 1.65 (1.42-1.88), respectively. Corresponding daily transmission rates were estimated at 1.07 (0.81-1.32) and 0.09 (0.07-0.10). These estimations based on historical data are consistent with those using data generated by the recent epidemic currently affecting eastern Europe. Such results contribute to the published knowledge on the ASF transmission dynamics under natural conditions and could be used to model and predict the spread of ASF in affected and non-affected regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Preventing Superinfection in Malaria Spreads with Repellent and Medical Treatment Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitri, Fanny; Aldila, Dipo

2018-03-01

Malaria is a kind of a vector-borne disease. That means this disease needs a vector (in this case, the anopheles mosquito) to spread. In this article, a mathematical model for malaria disease spread will be discussed. The model is constructed as a seven-dimensional of a non-linear ordinary differential equation. The interventions of treatment for infected humans and use of repellent are included in the model to see how these interventions could be considered as alternative ways to control the spread of malaria. Analysis will be made of the disease-free equilibrium point along with its local stability criteria, construction of the next generation matrix which followed with the sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number. We found that both medical treatment and repellent intervention succeeded in reducing the basic reproduction number as the endemic indicator of the model. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to give a better interpretation of the analytical results.

Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results. PMID:27042199

Backward Bifurcation in a Cholera Model: A Case Study of Outbreak in Zimbabwe and Haiti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sandeep; Kumari, Nitu

In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model is proposed with a saturated treatment function. The expression of the basic reproduction number for the proposed model was obtained. The global dynamics of the proposed model was studied using the basic reproduction number and theory of dynamical systems. It is observed that proposed model exhibits backward bifurcation as multiple endemic equilibrium points exist when R0 < 1. The existence of backward bifurcation implies that making R0 < 1 is not enough for disease eradication. This, in turn, makes it difficult to control the spread of cholera in the community. We also obtain a unique endemic equilibria when R0 > 1. The global stability of unique endemic equilibria is performed using the geometric approach. An extensive numerical study is performed to support our analytical results. Finally, we investigate two major cholera outbreaks, Zimbabwe (2008-09) and Haiti (2010), with the help of the present study.

Modeling malaria and typhoid fever co-infection dynamics.

PubMed

Mutua, Jones M; Wang, Feng-Bin; Vaidya, Naveen K

2015-06-01

Malaria and typhoid are among the most endemic diseases, and thus, of major public health concerns in tropical developing countries. In addition to true co-infection of malaria and typhoid, false diagnoses due to similar signs and symptoms and false positive results in testing methods, leading to improper controls, are the major challenges on managing these diseases. In this study, we develop novel mathematical models describing the co-infection dynamics of malaria and typhoid. Through mathematical analyses of our models, we identify distinct features of typhoid and malaria infection dynamics as well as relationships associated to their co-infection. The global dynamics of typhoid can be determined by a single threshold (the typhoid basic reproduction number, R0(T)) while two thresholds (the malaria basic reproduction number, R0(M), and the extinction index, R0(MM)) are needed to determine the global dynamics of malaria. We demonstrate that by using efficient simultaneous prevention programs, the co-infection basic reproduction number, R0, can be brought down to below one, thereby eradicating the diseases. Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in the Eastern Province of Kenya to quantify the possible false diagnosis resulting from this co-infection. In Kenya, despite having higher prevalence of typhoid, malaria is more problematic in terms of new infections and disease deaths. We find that false diagnosis-with higher possible cases for typhoid than malaria-cause significant devastating impacts on Kenyan societies. Our results demonstrate that both diseases need to be simultaneously managed for successful control of co-epidemics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Superinfection Behaviors on Scale-Free Networks with Competing Strains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Small, Michael; Liu, Huaxiang

2013-02-01

This paper considers the epidemiology of two strains ( I, J) of a disease spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. The epidemiological model is SIS and the two strains have different reproductive numbers. Superinfection means that strain I can infect individuals already infected with strain J, replacing the strain J infection. Individuals infected with strain I cannot be infected with strain J. The model is set up as a system of ordering differential equations and stability of the disease free, marginal strain I and strain J, and coexistence equilibria are assessed using linear stability analysis, supported by simulations. The main conclusion is that superinfection, as modeled in this paper, can allow strain I to coexist with strain J even when it has a lower basic reproductive number. Most strikingly, it can allow strain I to persist even when its reproductive number is less than 1.

Application of optimal control strategies to HIV-malaria co-infection dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatmawati; Windarto; Hanif, Lathifah

2018-03-01

This paper presents a mathematical model of HIV and malaria co-infection transmission dynamics. Optimal control strategies such as malaria preventive, anti-malaria and antiretroviral (ARV) treatments are considered into the model to reduce the co-infection. First, we studied the existence and stability of equilibria of the presented model without control variables. The model has four equilibria, namely the disease-free equilibrium, the HIV endemic equilibrium, the malaria endemic equilibrium, and the co-infection equilibrium. We also obtain two basic reproduction ratios corresponding to the diseases. It was found that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever their respective basic reproduction numbers are less than one. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the dominant factor controlling the transmission. sic reproduction numbers are less than one. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the dominant factor controlling the transmission. Then, the optimal control theory for the model was derived analytically by using Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations of the optimal control strategies are also performed to illustrate the results. From the numerical results, we conclude that the best strategy is to combine the malaria prevention and ARV treatments in order to reduce malaria and HIV co-infection populations.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

Modeling the Epidemiology of Cholera to Prevent Disease Transmission in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

MUKANDAVIRE, ZINDOGA; MORRIS, J. GLENN

2015-01-01

Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, which is capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. A number of mathematical models have been developed to help in understanding the dynamics of cholera outbreaks and for use as a tool in planning interventions, including vaccination campaigns. We have explored the utility of models in assessing the spread of cholera in the recent epidemics in Zimbabwe and Haiti. In both instances, a mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive number ℜ0, and the partial reproductive numbers reflecting potential differences in environmental-to-human versus human-to-human transmission were quantified. In Zimbabwe, estimated ℜ0 for the epidemic using aggregated data at the national level was 1.15; in Haiti, it was 1.55. However, when calculated at a provincial/departmental level, estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, with a range of 1.11 to 2.72 in Zimbabwe and 1.06 to 2.63 in Haiti. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from region to region, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. They also highlight the potential utility of these types of models in guiding development of public health intervention strategies. PMID:26185087

The basic reproduction number as a predictor for epidemic outbreaks in temporal networks.

PubMed

Holme, Petter; Masuda, Naoki

2015-01-01

The basic reproduction number R0--the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population--is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This severity can be more directly measured as the fraction of people infected once the outbreak is over, Ω. In traditional mathematical epidemiology and common formulations of static network epidemiology, there is a deterministic relationship between R0 and Ω. However, if one considers disease spreading on a temporal contact network--where one knows when contacts happen, not only between whom--then larger R0 does not necessarily imply larger Ω. In this paper, we numerically investigate the relationship between R0 and Ω for a set of empirical temporal networks of human contacts. Among 31 explanatory descriptors of temporal network structure, we identify those that make R0 an imperfect predictor of Ω. We find that descriptors related to both temporal and topological aspects affect the relationship between R0 and Ω, but in different ways.

Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China.

PubMed

Li, Ming-Tao; Sun, Gui-Quan; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Jin, Zhen

2017-03-12

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis.

Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China

PubMed Central

Li, Ming-Tao; Sun, Gui-Quan; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Jin, Zhen

2017-01-01

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis. PMID:28287496

Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

PubMed

Liu, Sanhong; Pang, Liuyong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

2015-01-01

Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

Global threshold dynamics of an SIVS model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear incidence.

PubMed

Yang, Junyuan; Martcheva, Maia; Wang, Lin

2015-10-01

Vaccination is the most effective method of preventing the spread of infectious diseases. For many diseases, vaccine-induced immunity is not life long and the duration of immunity is not always fixed. In this paper, we propose an SIVS model taking the waning of vaccine-induced immunity and general nonlinear incidence into consideration. Our analysis shows that the model exhibits global threshold dynamics in the sense that if the basic reproduction number is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable implying the disease dies out; while if the basic reproduction number is larger than 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable indicating that the disease persists. This global threshold result indicates that if the vaccination coverage rate is below a critical value, then the disease always persists and only if the vaccination coverage rate is above the critical value, the disease can be eradicated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vector-borne diseases models with residence times - A Lagrangian perspective.

PubMed

Bichara, Derdei; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2016-11-01

A multi-patch and multi-group modeling framework describing the dynamics of a class of diseases driven by the interactions between vectors and hosts structured by groups is formulated. Hosts' dispersal is modeled in terms of patch-residence times with the nonlinear dynamics taking into account the effective patch-host size. The residence times basic reproduction number R 0 is computed and shown to depend on the relative environmental risk of infection. The model is robust, that is, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if R 0 ≤1 and a unique interior endemic equilibrium is shown to exist that is GAS whenever R 0 >1 whenever the configuration of host-vector interactions is irreducible. The effects of patchiness and groupness, a measure of host-vector heterogeneous structure, on the basic reproduction number R 0 , are explored. Numerical simulations are carried out to highlight the effects of residence times on disease prevalence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Roeger, Lih-Ing W.

2007-09-01

In this article, we present the continuing work on a SARS model without quarantine by Hsu and Hsieh [Sze-Bi Hsu, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Modeling intervention measures and severity-dependent public response during severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66 (2006) 627-647]. An "acting basic reproductive number" [psi] is used to predict the final size of the susceptible population. We find the relation among the final susceptible population size S[infinity], the initial susceptible population S0, and [psi]. If [psi]>1, the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, S[infinity], becomes zero; therefore, everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If [psi]<1, the disease dies out, and then S[infinity]>0 which means part of the population will never be infected. Also, when S[infinity]>0, S[infinity] is increasing with respect to the initial susceptible population S0, and decreasing with respect to the acting basic reproductive number [psi].

Revisiting the Basic Reproductive Number for Malaria and Its Implications for Malaria Control

PubMed Central

Smith, David L; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2007-01-01

The prospects for the success of malaria control depend, in part, on the basic reproductive number for malaria, R 0. Here, we estimate R 0 in a novel way for 121 African populations, and thereby increase the number of R 0 estimates for malaria by an order of magnitude. The estimates range from around one to more than 3,000. We also consider malaria transmission and control in finite human populations, of size H. We show that classic formulas approximate the expected number of mosquitoes that could trace infection back to one mosquito after one parasite generation, Z 0(H), but they overestimate the expected number of infected humans per infected human, R 0(H). Heterogeneous biting increases R 0 and, as we show, Z 0(H), but we also show that it sometimes reduces R 0(H); those who are bitten most both infect many vectors and absorb infectious bites. The large range of R 0 estimates strongly supports the long-held notion that malaria control presents variable challenges across its transmission spectrum. In populations where R 0 is highest, malaria control will require multiple, integrated methods that target those who are bitten most. Therefore, strategic planning for malaria control should consider R 0, the spatial scale of transmission, human population density, and heterogeneous biting. PMID:17311470

Transmission Heterogeneity and Autoinoculation in a Multisite Infection Model of HPV

PubMed Central

Brouwer, Andrew F.; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

2015-01-01

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is sexually transmitted and can infect oral, genital, and anal sites in the human epithelium. Here, we develop a multisite transmission model that includes autoinoculation, to study HPV and other multisite diseases. Under a homogeneous-contacts assumption, we analyze the basic reproduction number R0, as well as type and target reproduction numbers, for a two-site model. In particular, we find that R0 occupies a space between taking the maximum of next generation matrix terms for same site transmission and taking the geometric average of cross-site transmission terms in such a way that heterogeneity in the same-site transmission rates increases R0 while heterogeneity in the cross-site transmission decreases it. Additionally, autoinoculation adds considerable complexity to the form of R0. We extend this analysis to a heterosexual population, which additionally yields dynamics analogous to those of vector–host models. We also examine how these issues of heterogeneity may affect disease control, using type and target reproduction numbers. PMID:26518265

Modeling optimal treatment strategies in a heterogeneous mixing model.

PubMed

Choe, Seoyun; Lee, Sunmi

2015-11-25

Many mathematical models assume random or homogeneous mixing for various infectious diseases. Homogeneous mixing can be generalized to mathematical models with multi-patches or age structure by incorporating contact matrices to capture the dynamics of the heterogeneously mixing populations. Contact or mixing patterns are difficult to measure in many infectious diseases including influenza. Mixing patterns are considered to be one of the critical factors for infectious disease modeling. A two-group influenza model is considered to evaluate the impact of heterogeneous mixing on the influenza transmission dynamics. Heterogeneous mixing between two groups with two different activity levels includes proportionate mixing, preferred mixing and like-with-like mixing. Furthermore, the optimal control problem is formulated in this two-group influenza model to identify the group-specific optimal treatment strategies at a minimal cost. We investigate group-specific optimal treatment strategies under various mixing scenarios. The characteristics of the two-group influenza dynamics have been investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size under various mixing scenarios. As the mixing patterns become proportionate mixing, the basic reproduction number becomes smaller; however, the final epidemic size becomes larger. This is due to the fact that the number of infected people increases only slightly in the higher activity level group, while the number of infected people increases more significantly in the lower activity level group. Our results indicate that more intensive treatment of both groups at the early stage is the most effective treatment regardless of the mixing scenario. However, proportionate mixing requires more treated cases for all combinations of different group activity levels and group population sizes. Mixing patterns can play a critical role in the effectiveness of optimal treatments. As the mixing becomes more like-with-like mixing, treating the higher activity group in the population is almost as effective as treating the entire populations since it reduces the number of disease cases effectively but only requires similar treatments. The gain becomes more pronounced as the basic reproduction number increases. This can be a critical issue which must be considered for future pandemic influenza interventions, especially when there are limited resources available.

Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird.

PubMed

Ouyang, Jenny Q; Sharp, Peter J; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

2011-08-22

Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.

Incorporating heterogeneity into the transmission dynamics of a waterborne disease model.

PubMed

Collins, O C; Govinder, K S

2014-09-07

We formulate a mathematical model that captures the essential dynamics of waterborne disease transmission to study the effects of heterogeneity on the spread of the disease. The effects of heterogeneity on some important mathematical features of the model such as the basic reproduction number, type reproduction number and final outbreak size are analysed accordingly. We conduct a real-world application of this model by using it to investigate the heterogeneity in transmission in the recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. By evaluating the measure of heterogeneity between the administrative departments in Haiti, we discover a significant difference in the dynamics of the cholera outbreak between the departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the robust optimization to the uncertain vaccination strategy problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaerani, D., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Anggriani, N., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Firdaniza, E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id

2014-02-21

In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccinationmore » strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented.« less

Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary.

PubMed

Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2017-12-01

In this paper, a reaction-diffusion system is proposed to model the spatial spreading of West Nile virus in vector mosquitoes and host birds in North America. Transmission dynamics are based on a simplified model involving mosquitoes and birds, and the free boundary is introduced to model and explore the expanding front of the infected region. The spatial-temporal risk index [Formula: see text], which involves regional characteristic and time, is defined for the simplified reaction-diffusion model with the free boundary to compare with other related threshold values, including the usual basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Sufficient conditions for the virus to vanish or to spread are given. Our results suggest that the virus will be in a scenario of vanishing if [Formula: see text], and will spread to the whole region if [Formula: see text] for some [Formula: see text], while if [Formula: see text], the spreading or vanishing of the virus depends on the initial number of infected individuals, the area of the infected region, the diffusion rate and other factors. Moreover, some remarks on the basic reproduction numbers and the spreading speeds are presented and compared.

Mathematical modeling of zika virus disease with nonlinear incidence and optimal control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, Naba Kumar; Srivastav, Akhil Kumar; Ghosh, Mini; Shanmukha, B.

2018-04-01

The Zika virus was first discovered in a rhesus monkey in the Zika Forest of Uganda in 1947, and it was isolated from humans in Nigeria in 1952. Zika virus disease is primarily a mosquito-borne disease, which is transmitted to human primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito. However, there is documented evidence of sexual transmission of this disease too. In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model for Zika virus by considering nonlinear incidence is formulated and analyzed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number (R0) of the model are found. The stability of the different equilibria of the model is discussed in detail. When the basic reproduction number R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally stable i.e. in this case disease dies out. For R0 > 1, we have endemic equilibrium which is locally stable under some restriction on parameters. Further this model is extended to optimal control model and is analyzed by using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. It has been observed that optimal control plays a significant role in reducing the number of zika infectives. Finally, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the analytical findings.

The spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases with birth and death on heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-02-01

In this paper, we formulate a deterministic model by including the vacant sites, which represent inactive individuals or potential contacts, to investigate the spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. We first analytically derive the basic reproduction number R 0, which completely determines global dynamics of the system in the long run. Specifically, if R 0  <  1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, i.e. disease disappears from the network irrespective of initial infected numbers and distributions, whereas if R 0  >  1, the system is uniformly persistent around a unique endemic equilibrium, i.e. disease persists in the network. Furthermore, by using a suitable Lyapunov function the global stability of endemic equilibrium for low/high-risk infected individuals only is proved. Finally, the effects of three immunization schemes are studied and compared, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of network topology and population turnover on disease spread. Our results suggest that population turnover could have great impact on the sexually transmitted disease system in heterogeneous networks, including the basic reproduction number and infection prevalence.

Cholera in Haiti: Reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukandavire, Zindoga; Smith, David L.; Morris, J. Glenn, Jr.

2013-01-01

Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an () <1, which would suppress transmission. In the current debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.

Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model.

PubMed

Hall, I M; Egan, J R; Barrass, I; Gani, R; Leach, S

2007-10-01

To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R0=3) and smaller numbers of index cases ( approximately 10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5-80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1-10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).

Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014

PubMed Central

Lou, Pengwei; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Xueliang; Xu, Jiabo

2016-01-01

Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920–18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction number R 0 = 2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129–2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number R 0 in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic. PMID:27872852

A Dynamic Model of Human and Livestock Tuberculosis Spread and Control in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Shan; Li, Aiqiao; Feng, Xiaomei; Zhang, Xueliang

2016-01-01

We establish a dynamical model for tuberculosis of humans and cows. For the model, we firstly give the basic reproduction number R 0. Furthermore, we discuss the dynamical behaviors of the model. By epidemiological investigation of tuberculosis among humans and livestock from 2007 to 2014 in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China. The reproduction number in Urumqi for the model is estimated to be 0.1811 (95% confidence interval: 0.123–0.281). Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of tuberculosis. PMID:27525034

The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Fuentes, R; Olea, A; Aguilera, X; Nesse, H; Hyman, J M

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number R0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated R0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

Dynamics of an epidemic model with quarantine on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Huiyan; Liu, Kaihui; Fu, Xinchu

2017-12-01

Quarantine strategies are frequently used to control or reduce the transmission risks of epidemic diseases such as SARS, tuberculosis and cholera. In this paper, we formulate a susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered model on a scale-free network incorporating the births and deaths of individuals. Considering that the infectivity is related to the degrees of infectious nodes, we introduce quarantined rate as a function of degree into the model, and quantify the basic reproduction number, which is shown to be dependent on some parameters, such as quarantined rate, infectivity and network structures. A theoretical result further indicates the heterogeneity of networks and higher infectivity will raise the disease transmission risk while quarantine measure will contribute to the prevention of epidemic spreading. Meanwhile, the contact assumption between susceptibles and infectives may impact the disease transmission. Furthermore, we prove that the basic reproduction number serves as a threshold value for the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria and the uniform persistence of the disease on the network by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functions. Finally, some numerical simulations are illustrated to perform and complement our analytical results.

Optimal control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci using preventive care and treatment of infections.

PubMed

Lowden, Jonathan; Miller Neilan, Rachael; Yahdi, Mohammed

2014-03-01

The rising prevalence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) is a major health problem in intensive care units (ICU) because of its association with increased mortality and high health care costs. We present a mathematical framework for determining cost-effective strategies for prevention and treatment of VRE in the ICU. A system of five ordinary differential equations describes the movement of ICU patients in and out of five VRE-related states. Two control variables representing the prevention and treatment of VRE are incorporated into the system. The basic reproductive number is derived and calculated for different levels of the two controls. An optimal control problem is formulated to minimize VRE-related deaths and costs associated with prevention and treatment controls over a finite time period. Numerical solutions illustrate optimal single and dual allocations of the controls for various cost values. Results show that preventive care has the greatest impact in reducing the basic reproductive number, while treatment of VRE infections has the most impact on reducing VRE-related deaths. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian inferential approach to quantify the transmission intensity of disease outbreak.

PubMed

Kadi, Adiveppa S; Avaradi, Shivakumari R

2015-01-01

Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R0), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated R0 from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. The estimated R0 with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of R0. Basic reproduction number R0 provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth.

Epidemic spreading on one-way-coupled networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lingna; Sun, Mengfeng; Chen, Shanshan; Fu, Xinchu

2016-09-01

Numerous real-world networks (e.g., social, communicational, and biological networks) have been observed to depend on each other, and this results in interconnected networks with different topology structures and dynamics functions. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading on one-way-coupled networks comprised of two subnetworks, which can manifest the transmission of some zoonotic diseases. By proposing a mathematical model through mean-field approximation approach, we prove the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria of this model. Through the theoretical and numerical analysis, we obtain interesting results: the basic reproduction number R0 of the whole network is the maximum of the basic reproduction numbers of the two subnetworks; R0 is independent of the cross-infection rate and cross contact pattern; R0 increases rapidly with the growth of inner infection rate if the inner contact pattern is scale-free; in order to eradicate zoonotic diseases from human beings, we must simultaneously eradicate them from animals; bird-to-bird infection rate has bigger impact on the human's average infected density than bird-to-human infection rate.

Development of ostrich thrombocytes and monocyte-derived macrophages in culture and the control of Toxoplasma gondii reproduction after macrophage activation.

PubMed

Miranda, Farlen J B; Damasceno-Sá, João Cláudio; DaMatta, Renato A

2016-01-01

Raising ostriches became an important economic activity after their products became commodities. The health of farm animals is of paramount importance, so assessing basic immunological responses is necessary to better understand health problems. We developed a method to obtain ostrich thrombocytes and macrophages. The thrombocytes died by apoptosis after 48 h in culture, and the macrophages expanded in size and increased the number of acidic compartments. Macrophages were activated by chicken interferon-γ, producing high levels of nitric oxide. Toxoplasma gondii was able to infect these macrophages, and activation controlled parasitic reproduction. T. gondii, however, persisted in these cells, and infection reduced the production of nitric oxide. These results are important for the future assessment of the basic cellular and immunobiology of ostriches and demonstrate T. gondii suppression of nitric oxide production. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Fundaments of plant cybernetics.

PubMed

Zucconi, F

2001-01-01

A systemic approach is proposed for analyzing plants' physiological organization and cybernesis. To this end, the plant is inspected as a system, starting from the integration of crown and root systems, and its impact on a number of basic epigenetic events. The approach proves to be axiomatic and facilitates the definition of the principles behind the plant's autonomous control of growth and reproduction.

Measuring the impact of air pollution on respiratory infection risk in China.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Yan, Qinling; Shi, Wei; Wang, Xia; Sun, Xiaodan; Yu, Pengbo; Wu, Jianhong; Xiao, Yanni

2018-01-01

China is now experiencing major public health challenges caused by air pollution. Few studies have quantified the dynamics of air pollution and its impact on the risk of respiratory infection. We conducted an integrated data analysis to quantify the association among air quality index (AQI), meteorological variables and respiratory infection risk in Shaanxi province of China in the period of November 15th, 2010 to November 14th, 2016. Our analysis illustrated a statistically significantly positive correlation between the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and AQI, and the respiratory infection risk has increased progressively with increased AQI with a time lag of 0-3 days. We also developed mathematical models for the AQI trend and respiratory infection dynamics, incorporating AQI-dependent incidence and AQI-based behaviour change interventions. Our combined data and modelling analysis estimated the basic reproduction number for the respiratory infection during the studying period to be 2.4076, higher than the basic reproduction number of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the same province. Our modelling-based simulations concluded that, in terms of respiratory infection risk reduction, the persistent control of emission in the China's blue-sky programme is much more effective than substantial social-economic interventions implemented only during the smog days. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number

PubMed Central

Fisman, David N.; Hauck, Tanya S.; Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Greer, Amy L.

2013-01-01

Background Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. Methodology The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Principal Findings Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. Conclusions and Significance This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists. PMID:24391797

An IDEA for short term outbreak projection: nearcasting using the basic reproduction number.

PubMed

Fisman, David N; Hauck, Tanya S; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Greer, Amy L

2013-01-01

Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth. The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts). Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1(th) serial interval using data from the i(th) serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence. This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists.

Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

2015-06-01

We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.

PubMed

Nyirenda, Mayumbo; Omori, Ryosuke; Tessmer, Heidi L; Arimura, Hiroki; Ito, Kimihito

2016-01-01

The prediction of the lineage dynamics of influenza B viruses for the next season is one of the largest obstacles for constructing an appropriate influenza trivalent vaccine. Seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference between the two major influenza B lineages make the lineage dynamics complicated. Here we construct a parsimonious model describing the lineage dynamics while taking into account seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference. Using this model we estimated the epidemiological and evolutional parameters with the time-series data of the lineage specific isolates in Japan from the 2010-2011 season to the 2014-2015 season. The basic reproduction number is similar between Victoria and Yamagata, with a minimum value during one year as 0.82 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 0.77-0.87) for the Yamagata and 0.83 (95% HPD: 0.74-0.92) for Victoria, the amplitude of seasonal variation of the basic reproduction number is 0.77 (95% HPD:0.66-0.87) for Yamagata and 1.05 (95% HPD: 0.89-1.02) for Victoria. The duration for which the acquired immunity is effective against infection by the Yamagata lineage is shorter than the acquired immunity for Victoria, 424.1days (95% HPD:317.4-561.5days). The reduction rate of susceptibility due to immune cross-reaction is 0.51 (95% HPD: 0.084-0.92) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Yamagata against the infection with Victoria and 0.62 (95% HPD: 0.42-0.80) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Victoria against the infection with Yamagata. Using estimated parameters, we predicted the dominant lineage in 2015-2016 season. The accuracy of this prediction is 68.8% if the emergence timings of the two lineages are known and 61.4% if the emergence timings are unknown. Estimated seasonal variation of the lineage specific reproduction number can narrow down the range of emergence timing, with an accuracy of 64.6% if the emergence times are assumed to be the time at which the estimated reproduction number exceeds one.

Dynamical Behavior of a Malaria Model with Discrete Delay and Optimal Insecticide Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Tuhin Kumar; Jana, Soovoojeet

In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a simple three-dimensional mathematical model related to malaria disease. We consider three state variables associated with susceptible human population, infected human population and infected mosquitoes, respectively. A discrete delay parameter has been incorporated to take account of the time of incubation period with infected mosquitoes. We consider the effect of insecticide control, which is applied to the mosquitoes. Basic reproduction number is figured out for the proposed model and it is shown that when this threshold is less than unity then the system moves to the disease-free state whereas for higher values other than unity, the system would tend to an endemic state. On the other hand if we consider the system with delay, then there may exist some cases where the endemic equilibrium would be unstable although the numerical value of basic reproduction number may be greater than one. We formulate and solve the optimal control problem by considering insecticide as the control variable. Optimal control problem assures to obtain better result than the noncontrol situation. Numerical illustrations are provided in support of the theoretical results.

Dynamics of a Delayed HIV-1 Infection Model with Saturation Incidence Rate and CTL Immune Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Ting; Liu, Haihong; Xu, Chenglin; Yan, Fang

2016-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a five-dimensional virus model incorporating saturation incidence rate, CTL immune response and three time delays which represent the latent period, virus production period and immune response delay, respectively. We begin this model by proving the positivity and boundedness of the solutions. Our model admits three possible equilibrium solutions, namely the infection-free equilibrium E0, the infectious equilibrium without immune response E1 and the infectious equilibrium with immune response E2. Moreover, by analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the equilibrium point E2 are established, respectively. Further, by using fluctuation lemma and suitable Lyapunov functionals, it is shown that E0 is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive numbers for viral infection R0 is less than unity. When the basic reproductive numbers for immune response R1 is less than unity and R0 is greater than unity, the equilibrium point E1 is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results.

A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak

PubMed Central

Kadi, Adiveppa S.; Avaradi, Shivakumari R.

2015-01-01

Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. Method. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R 0), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated R 0 from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. Result. The estimated R 0 with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of R 0. Conclusion. Basic reproduction number R 0 provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth. PMID:25784956

The coverage and frequency of mass drug administration required to eliminate persistent transmission of soil-transmitted helminths

PubMed Central

Anderson, Roy; Truscott, James; Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre

2014-01-01

A combination of methods, including mathematical model construction, demographic plus epidemiological data analysis and parameter estimation, are used to examine whether mass drug administration (MDA) alone can eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). Numerical analyses suggest that in all but low transmission settings (as defined by the magnitude of the basic reproductive number, R0), the treatment of pre-school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) is unlikely to drive transmission to a level where the parasites cannot persist. High levels of coverage (defined as the fraction of an age group effectively treated) are required in pre-SAC, SAC and adults, if MDA is to drive the parasite below the breakpoint under which transmission is eliminated. Long-term solutions to controlling helminth infections lie in concomitantly improving the quality of the water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). MDA, however, is a very cost-effective tool in long-term control given that most drugs are donated free by the pharmaceutical industry for poor regions of the world. WASH interventions, by lowering the basic reproductive number, can facilitate the ability of MDA to interrupt transmission. PMID:24821921

The coverage and frequency of mass drug administration required to eliminate persistent transmission of soil-transmitted helminths.

PubMed

Anderson, Roy; Truscott, James; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre

2014-01-01

A combination of methods, including mathematical model construction, demographic plus epidemiological data analysis and parameter estimation, are used to examine whether mass drug administration (MDA) alone can eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). Numerical analyses suggest that in all but low transmission settings (as defined by the magnitude of the basic reproductive number, R0), the treatment of pre-school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) is unlikely to drive transmission to a level where the parasites cannot persist. High levels of coverage (defined as the fraction of an age group effectively treated) are required in pre-SAC, SAC and adults, if MDA is to drive the parasite below the breakpoint under which transmission is eliminated. Long-term solutions to controlling helminth infections lie in concomitantly improving the quality of the water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). MDA, however, is a very cost-effective tool in long-term control given that most drugs are donated free by the pharmaceutical industry for poor regions of the world. WASH interventions, by lowering the basic reproductive number, can facilitate the ability of MDA to interrupt transmission.

Conservation endocrinology

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCormick, Stephen; Romero, L. Michael

2017-01-01

Endocrinologists can make significant contributions to conservation biology by helping to understand the mechanisms by which organisms cope with changing environments. Field endocrine techniques have advanced rapidly in recent years and can provide substantial information on the growth, stress, and reproductive status of individual animals, thereby providing insight into current and future responses of populations to changes in the environment. Environmental stressors and reproductive status can be detected nonlethally by measuring a number of endocrine-related endpoints, including steroids in plasma, living and nonliving tissue, urine, and feces. Information on the environmental or endocrine requirements of individual species for normal growth, development, and reproduction will provide critical information for species and ecosystem conservation. For many taxa, basic information on endocrinology is lacking, and advances in conservation endocrinology will require approaches that are both “basic” and “applied” and include integration of laboratory and field approaches.

Immunology update: topics in basic and clinically applied reproductive immunology.

PubMed

Hunt, J S

1996-05-01

A postgraduate course covering basic and clinical reproductive immunology was held in Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A., on March 19, 1996, in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Society for Gynecological Investigation. The course was organized and chaired by Joseph A. Hill.

An operational epidemiological model for calibrating agent-based simulations of pandemic influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Prieto, D; Das, T K

2016-03-01

Uncertainty of pandemic influenza viruses continue to cause major preparedness challenges for public health policymakers. Decisions to mitigate influenza outbreaks often involve tradeoff between the social costs of interventions (e.g., school closure) and the cost of uncontrolled spread of the virus. To achieve a balance, policymakers must assess the impact of mitigation strategies once an outbreak begins and the virus characteristics are known. Agent-based (AB) simulation is a useful tool for building highly granular disease spread models incorporating the epidemiological features of the virus as well as the demographic and social behavioral attributes of tens of millions of affected people. Such disease spread models provide excellent basis on which various mitigation strategies can be tested, before they are adopted and implemented by the policymakers. However, to serve as a testbed for the mitigation strategies, the AB simulation models must be operational. A critical requirement for operational AB models is that they are amenable for quick and simple calibration. The calibration process works as follows: the AB model accepts information available from the field and uses those to update its parameters such that some of its outputs in turn replicate the field data. In this paper, we present our epidemiological model based calibration methodology that has a low computational complexity and is easy to interpret. Our model accepts a field estimate of the basic reproduction number, and then uses it to update (calibrate) the infection probabilities in a way that its effect combined with the effects of the given virus epidemiology, demographics, and social behavior results in an infection pattern yielding a similar value of the basic reproduction number. We evaluate the accuracy of the calibration methodology by applying it for an AB simulation model mimicking a regional outbreak in the US. The calibrated model is shown to yield infection patterns closely replicating the input estimates of the basic reproduction number. The calibration method is also tested to replicate an initial infection incidence trend for a H1N1 outbreak like that of 2009.

The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models.

PubMed

Diekmann, O; Heesterbeek, J A P; Roberts, M G

2010-06-06

The basic reproduction number (0) is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. The next-generation matrix (NGM) is the natural basis for the definition and calculation of (0) where finitely many different categories of individuals are recognized. We clear up confusion that has been around in the literature concerning the construction of this matrix, specifically for the most frequently used so-called compartmental models. We present a detailed easy recipe for the construction of the NGM from basic ingredients derived directly from the specifications of the model. We show that two related matrices exist which we define to be the NGM with large domain and the NGM with small domain. The three matrices together reflect the range of possibilities encountered in the literature for the characterization of (0). We show how they are connected and how their construction follows from the basic model ingredients, and establish that they have the same non-zero eigenvalues, the largest of which is the basic reproduction number (0). Although we present formal recipes based on linear algebra, we encourage the construction of the NGM by way of direct epidemiological reasoning, using the clear interpretation of the elements of the NGM and of the model ingredients. We present a selection of examples as a practical guide to our methods. In the appendix we present an elementary but complete proof that (0) defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the NGM for compartmental systems and the Malthusian parameter r, the real-time exponential growth rate in the early phase of an outbreak, are connected by the properties that (0) > 1 if and only if r > 0, and (0) = 1 if and only if r = 0.

The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models

PubMed Central

Diekmann, O.; Heesterbeek, J. A. P.; Roberts, M. G.

2010-01-01

The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. The next-generation matrix (NGM) is the natural basis for the definition and calculation of ℛ0 where finitely many different categories of individuals are recognized. We clear up confusion that has been around in the literature concerning the construction of this matrix, specifically for the most frequently used so-called compartmental models. We present a detailed easy recipe for the construction of the NGM from basic ingredients derived directly from the specifications of the model. We show that two related matrices exist which we define to be the NGM with large domain and the NGM with small domain. The three matrices together reflect the range of possibilities encountered in the literature for the characterization of ℛ0. We show how they are connected and how their construction follows from the basic model ingredients, and establish that they have the same non-zero eigenvalues, the largest of which is the basic reproduction number ℛ0. Although we present formal recipes based on linear algebra, we encourage the construction of the NGM by way of direct epidemiological reasoning, using the clear interpretation of the elements of the NGM and of the model ingredients. We present a selection of examples as a practical guide to our methods. In the appendix we present an elementary but complete proof that ℛ0 defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the NGM for compartmental systems and the Malthusian parameter r, the real-time exponential growth rate in the early phase of an outbreak, are connected by the properties that ℛ0 > 1 if and only if r > 0, and ℛ0 = 1 if and only if r = 0. PMID:19892718

Measuring the Effect of Chemicals on the Growth and Reproduction of Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Lee, So Young; Kang, Kyungsu

2017-10-05

Toxicological evaluation is crucial for understanding the effects of chemicals on living organisms in basic and applied biological science fields. A non-mammalian soil round worm, Caenorhabditis elegans, is a valuable model organism for toxicology studies due to its convenience and lack of animal ethics issues compared with mammalian animal systems. In this protocol, a detailed procedure of toxicological evaluation of chemicals in C. elegans is described. A clinical anticancer drug, etoposide, which targets human topoisomerase II and inhibits DNA replication of human cancer cells, was selected as a model testing chemical. Age-synchronized C. elegans eggs were exposed to either dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) or etoposide, and then the growth of C. elegans was monitored every day for 4 days by the stereo microscope observation. The total number of eggs laid from C. elegans treated with DMSO or etoposide was also counted by using the stereo microscope. Etoposide treatment significantly affected the growth and reproduction of C. elegans. By comparison of the total number of eggs laid from worms with different treatment periods of chemicals, it can be decided that the reproductive toxicity of chemicals on C. elegans reproduction is reversible or irreversible. These protocols may be helpful for both the development of various drugs and risk assessment of environmental toxicants.

A Vitis vinifera basic helix-loop-helix transcription factor enhances plant cell size, vegetative biomass and reproductive yield

DOE PAGES

Lim, Sung Don; Yim, Won Choel; Liu, Degao; ...

2018-04-16

Strategies for improving plant size are critical targets for plant biotechnology to increase vegetative biomass or reproductive yield. To improve biomass production, a codon-optimized helix–loop–helix transcription factor (VvCEB1 opt) from wine grape was overexpressed in Arabidopsis thaliana resulting in significantly increased leaf number, leaf and rosette area, fresh weight and dry weight. Cell size, but typically not cell number, was increased in all tissues resulting in increased vegetative biomass and reproductive organ size, number and seed yield. Ionomic analysis of leaves revealed the VvCEB1 opt-overexpressing plants had significantly elevated, K, S and Mo contents relative to control lines. Increased Kmore » content likely drives increased osmotic potential within cells leading to greater cellular growth and expansion. To understand the mechanistic basis of VvCEB1 opt action, one transgenic line was genotyped using RNA-Seq mRNA expression profiling and revealed a novel transcriptional reprogramming network with significant changes in mRNA abundance for genes with functions in delayed flowering, pathogen–defence responses, iron homeostasis, vesicle-mediated cell wall formation and auxin-mediated signalling and responses. Direct testing of VvCEB1 opt-overexpressing plants showed that they had significantly elevated auxin content and a significantly increased number of lateral leaf primordia within meristems relative to controls, confirming that cell expansion and organ number proliferation were likely an auxin-mediated process. VvCEB1 opt overexpression in Nicotiana sylvestris also showed larger cells, organ size and biomass demonstrating the potential applicability of this innovative strategy for improving plant biomass and reproductive yield in crops.« less

Structural and Practical Identifiability Analysis of Zika Epidemiological Models.

PubMed

Tuncer, Necibe; Marctheva, Maia; LaBarre, Brian; Payoute, Sabrina

2018-06-13

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has caused an ongoing threat to global health security and spurred new investigations of the virus. Use of epidemiological models for arbovirus diseases can be a powerful tool to assist in prevention and control of the emerging disease. In this article, we introduce six models of ZIKV, beginning with a general vector-borne model and gradually including different transmission routes of ZIKV. These epidemiological models use various combinations of disease transmission (vector and direct) and infectious classes (asymptomatic and pregnant), with addition to loss of immunity being included. The disease-induced death rate is omitted from the models. We test the structural and practical identifiability of the models to find whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined. The models were fit to obtain time-series data of cumulative incidences and pregnant infections from the Florida Department of Health Daily Zika Update Reports. The average relative estimation errors (AREs) were computed from the Monte Carlo simulations to further analyze the identifiability of the models. We show that direct transmission rates are not practically identifiable; however, fixed recovery rates improve identifiability overall. We found ARE is low for each model (only slightly higher for those that account for a pregnant class) and help to confirm a reproduction number greater than one at the start of the Florida epidemic. Basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], is an epidemiologically important threshold value which gives the number of secondary cases generated by one infected individual in a totally susceptible population in duration of infectiousness. Elasticity of the reproduction numbers suggests that the mosquito-to-human ratio, mosquito life span and biting rate have the greatest potential for reducing the reproduction number of Zika, and therefore, corresponding control measures need to be focused on.

A Vitis vinifera basic helix-loop-helix transcription factor enhances plant cell size, vegetative biomass and reproductive yield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lim, Sung Don; Yim, Won Choel; Liu, Degao

Strategies for improving plant size are critical targets for plant biotechnology to increase vegetative biomass or reproductive yield. To improve biomass production, a codon-optimized helix–loop–helix transcription factor (VvCEB1 opt) from wine grape was overexpressed in Arabidopsis thaliana resulting in significantly increased leaf number, leaf and rosette area, fresh weight and dry weight. Cell size, but typically not cell number, was increased in all tissues resulting in increased vegetative biomass and reproductive organ size, number and seed yield. Ionomic analysis of leaves revealed the VvCEB1 opt-overexpressing plants had significantly elevated, K, S and Mo contents relative to control lines. Increased Kmore » content likely drives increased osmotic potential within cells leading to greater cellular growth and expansion. To understand the mechanistic basis of VvCEB1 opt action, one transgenic line was genotyped using RNA-Seq mRNA expression profiling and revealed a novel transcriptional reprogramming network with significant changes in mRNA abundance for genes with functions in delayed flowering, pathogen–defence responses, iron homeostasis, vesicle-mediated cell wall formation and auxin-mediated signalling and responses. Direct testing of VvCEB1 opt-overexpressing plants showed that they had significantly elevated auxin content and a significantly increased number of lateral leaf primordia within meristems relative to controls, confirming that cell expansion and organ number proliferation were likely an auxin-mediated process. VvCEB1 opt overexpression in Nicotiana sylvestris also showed larger cells, organ size and biomass demonstrating the potential applicability of this innovative strategy for improving plant biomass and reproductive yield in crops.« less

Binding energies and modelling of nuclei in semiclassical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-García, M. Ángeles; Tsushima, K.; Valcarce, A.

2008-03-01

We study the binding energies of spin isospin saturated nuclei with nucleon number 8⩽A⩽100 in semiclassical Monte Carlo many-body simulations. The model Hamiltonian consists of (i) nucleon kinetic energy, (ii) a nucleon nucleon interaction potential, and (iii) an effective Pauli potential which depends on density. The basic ingredients of the nucleon nucleon potential are a short-range repulsion, and a medium-range attraction. Our results demonstrate that one can always expect to obtain the empirical binding energies for a set of nuclei by introducing a proper density dependent Pauli potential in terms of a single variable, the nucleon number, A. The present work shows that in the suggested procedure there is a delicate counterbalance of kinetic and potential energetic contributions allowing a good reproduction of the experimental nuclear binding energies. This type of calculations may be of interest in further reproduction of other properties of nuclei such as radii and also exotic nuclei.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017

PubMed Central

Matsuyama, Ryota; Lee, Hyojung; Yamaguchi, Takayuki; Tsuzuki, Shinya

2018-01-01

Background A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R0. Methods A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. Results R0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Discussion Estimated R0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified. PMID:29629244

Oncolytic potency and reduced virus tumor-specificity in oncolytic virotherapy. A mathematical modelling approach.

PubMed

Mahasa, Khaphetsi Joseph; Eladdadi, Amina; de Pillis, Lisette; Ouifki, Rachid

2017-01-01

In the present paper, we address by means of mathematical modeling the following main question: How can oncolytic virus infection of some normal cells in the vicinity of tumor cells enhance oncolytic virotherapy? We formulate a mathematical model describing the interactions between the oncolytic virus, the tumor cells, the normal cells, and the antitumoral and antiviral immune responses. The model consists of a system of delay differential equations with one (discrete) delay. We derive the model's basic reproductive number within tumor and normal cell populations and use their ratio as a metric for virus tumor-specificity. Numerical simulations are performed for different values of the basic reproduction numbers and their ratios to investigate potential trade-offs between tumor reduction and normal cells losses. A fundamental feature unravelled by the model simulations is its great sensitivity to parameters that account for most variation in the early or late stages of oncolytic virotherapy. From a clinical point of view, our findings indicate that designing an oncolytic virus that is not 100% tumor-specific can increase virus particles, which in turn, can further infect tumor cells. Moreover, our findings indicate that when infected tissues can be regenerated, oncolytic viral infection of normal cells could improve cancer treatment.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017.

PubMed

Matsuyama, Ryota; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Endo, Akira; Lee, Hyojung; Yamaguchi, Takayuki; Tsuzuki, Shinya; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2018-01-01

A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R 0 . A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R 0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. R 0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R 0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R 0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Estimated R 0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.

Global stability for epidemic models on multiplex networks.

PubMed

Huang, Yu-Jhe; Juang, Jonq; Liang, Yu-Hao; Wang, Hsin-Yu

2018-05-01

In this work, we consider an epidemic model in a two-layer network in which the dynamics of susceptible-infected-susceptible process in the physical layer coexists with that of a cyclic process of unaware-aware-unaware in the virtual layer. For such multiplex network, we shall define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] in the virtual layer, which is similar to the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] defined in the physical layer. We show analytically that if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], then the disease and information free equilibrium is globally stable and if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], then the disease free and information saturated equilibrium is globally stable for all initial conditions except at the origin. In the case of [Formula: see text], whether the disease dies out or not depends on the competition between how well the information is transmitted in the virtual layer and how contagious the disease is in the physical layer. In particular, it is numerically demonstrated that if the difference in [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] is greater than the product of [Formula: see text], the deviation of [Formula: see text] from 1 and the relative infection rate for an aware susceptible individual, then the disease dies out. Otherwise, the disease breaks out.

Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries

PubMed Central

Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Teunis, Peter F. M.; Pebody, Richard G.

2010-01-01

Background Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers. Methods and Findings We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT) titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5. Conclusions Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk of infections to adolescents and adults. If a vaccine conferring lifelong protection against clinical and subclinical infection were available pertussis could be eliminated. Currently, continuing circulation of the pathogen at a subclinical level provides a refuge for the pathogen in which it can evolve and adjust to infect vaccinated populations. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20585374

Amplification of the basic reproduction number in cattle farm networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The popularly known 20–80 rule or Pareto rule states that 20% of efforts leads to 80% of results. This rule has been applied to the study of infection transmission in contact networks, and specifically, contact networks between cattle farms. Woolhouse and collaborators showed that targeting interventions for disease control and prevention to the 20% of the farms that contribute the most to the basic reproduction number (Ro), could reduce it by 80%. The rule results from the number of incoming and outgoing contacts per farm being highly heterogeneous. Besides, Woolhouse and collaborators showed that this high contact heterogeneity, together with a high positive correlation between the number of incoming and outgoing animal movements per farm leads to an amplification in the Ro. Two previous studies carried out with Scottish cattle transport data found either no correlation or only a weak correlation (rho up to 0.33) when using weighted data. Using data from the contacts between Swiss cattle farms in 2015, we found that the 20–80 rule applies with respect to Ro, although the proportion of highly active farms is smaller (11%). Besides, a positive strong correlation (rho = 0.64, weighted data) between the incoming and outgoing contacts of farms exists. This means that the amplification of Ro (due to the contact heterogeneities and the existing correlation) in cattle contact networks can be much higher than known until now. Our results highlight the importance of an effective active surveillance, more so than in other countries were these amplification mechanisms are absent. PMID:29672512

Wildlife conservation and reproductive cloning.

PubMed

Holt, William V; Pickard, Amanda R; Prather, Randall S

2004-03-01

Reproductive cloning, or the production of offspring by nuclear transfer, is often regarded as having potential for conserving endangered species of wildlife. Currently, however, low success rates for reproductive cloning limit the practical application of this technique to experimental use and proof of principle investigations. In this review, we consider how cloning may contribute to wildlife conservation strategies. The cloning of endangered mammals presents practical problems, many of which stem from the paucity of knowledge about their basic reproductive biology. However, situations may arise where resources could be targeted at recovering lost or under-represented genetic lines; these could then contribute to the future fitness of the population. Approaches of this type would be preferable to the indiscriminate generation of large numbers of identical individuals. Applying cloning technology to non-mammalian vertebrates may be more practical than attempting to use conventional reproductive technologies. As the scientific background to cloning technology was pioneered using amphibians, it may be possible to breed imminently threatened amphibians, or even restore extinct amphibian species, by the use of cloning. In this respect species with external embryonic development may have an advantage over mammals as developmental abnormalities associated with inappropriate embryonic reprogramming would not be relevant.

Basic reproduction number of coxsackievirus type A6 and A16 and enterovirus 71: estimates from outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, a tropical city-state.

PubMed

Lim, C T K; Jiang, L; Ma, S; James, L; Ang, L W

2016-04-01

Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R 0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R 0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57-5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85-3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36-4·53) for EV-A71. R 0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R 0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

Influence of long-term vaccination of a breeding herd of pigs against PCV2 on reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Pejsak, Z; Kusior, G; Pomorska-Mól, M; Podgórska, K

2012-01-01

The objective of the study was to evaluate an efficacy of sows vaccination protocols in the herd with serious problems affecting efficacy of reproduction. The study was performed in a large pig herd with about 1200 sows. Before vaccination against PCV2, farrowing rate in this farm was about 65%. Sows, boar and replacement gilts were immunized using Circovac vaccine (Merial, France) according to producer's recommendations. Parameters of production were analyzed since 2007 until 2010 in selected batches of sows inseminated at the same weeks of the year (17th, 18th, 19th and 20th) to eliminate seasonal variability. In total, 940 sows were subjected to the study. No significant changes in management during these years were introduced. The applied protocol of sow herd long-term vaccination proved to be very efficient. All measured production parameters: reproduction rate, number of piglets born alive, birth weight of piglets and number of piglets weaned per a litter improved after implementation of immunization program. Moreover, further improvement was observed with vaccination in the following reproduction cycles. The most spectacular effect of vaccination regarded average farrowing rate that increased from 64.76% in control group to 86.93% after basic vaccination. Two years after implementation of vaccination program this parameter reached 93.6%. Number of piglets weaned per sow per a litter improved from 10.31 to 11.74 after one year of vaccination and remained relatively stable through the following year. Simultaneously, the percentage of newborn piglets with birth weight < 1 kg decreased significantly (p < 0.05). To summarize, vaccination against PCV2 influenced positively the insemination rate, number of piglets born alive and weaned per litter as well as birth body weight and percentage of piglets weighing < 1 kg.

Encouraging science reading beyond the curriculum.

PubMed

Lamberson, W R; Smith, M F

2005-08-01

Students in genetics and reproductive physiology, junior-/senior-level courses with enrollments averaging 76 and 41 students, respectively, were encouraged to read popular science books for extra credit. The objectives of the readings were to reinforce basic class concepts by forming ties to everyday life, and to expose students to a genre that can provide information to prepare them as citizens to engage in the debate over current issues. The books for genetics were The Double Helix, Genome, Voyage of the Beagle, and The Engineer in the Garden; and the books for reproductive physiology were Clone, Lives of a Cell, Life Before Birth and A Time to be Born, and The Second Creation: Dolly and The Age of Biological Control. To earn credit (3% of the course grade for each of up to three books), students had to demonstrate knowledge and understanding of each book during a 15-min discussion with the instructor. Discussions focused on questions designed to stimulate critical thinking about each book's content. For example: "There is approximately 98% homology in DNA sequence between humans and chimpanzees; in aspects ranging from basic physiology to behavior, what makes us similar to or different from the species that is our closest living relative?" The numbers of students reading three books in Years 1 and 2 were 2 and 12 in genetics, and 4 and 3 in reproductive physiology; those reading two books in Years 1 and 2 were 5 and 20 in genetics, and 0 and 2 in reproductive physiology; and those reading one book in Years 1 and 2 were 21 and 31 in genetics, and 7 and 8 in reproductive physiology. The numbers of students that read no books in Years 1 and 2 were 33 and 27 in genetics, and 45 and 20 in reproductive physiology. Participation in the reading project occurred independently of course grades. Sixteen genetics students from the second year's class, eight that had participated in the extra credit reading and eight that had not, volunteered to be reexamined on material from the class. The reexamination was conducted 3 mo after the end of the class. With first exam score fitted as a covariate (P < 0.10), participation in the extra credit reading assignment did not affect score on the reexamination; participants averaged 67% correct answers, nonparticipants averaged 59% (P = 0.37). Comments on course evaluations indicated broad satisfaction with the assignments. Although no improvement of retention could be documented from this project, our objective of encouraging students to engage in reading material supplemental to courses in genetics and reproductive physiology was satisfied.

Crane reproductive physiology and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gee, G.F.

1983-01-01

Some unique features of crane reproduction, management, and conservation are described. Because cranes are sexually monomorphic, sexing is difficult and must be accomplished using behavior, laparoscopy, cloacal examination, genetic techniques, or fecal steroid analysis. Although husbandry techniques for cranes are similar to those used with other nondomestic birds, a number of basic characteristics, such as extreme aggressiveness, imprinting by the crane chick on man, a delayed molt in the immature crane, delayed sexual maturity, and infertility, pose special problems for the propagator. Artificial insemination is a practical solution to crane infertility. Vigorous captive management and propagation efforts must become increasingly important if several endangered crane species are to survive the continuing decline in wild populations. The ultimate goal is the restoration of suitable habitat and sustainable native populations.

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

PubMed

Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

2014-01-07

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD: although summer culling seems to be an effective disease eradication strategy, the total culling rate is limited by the requirement to preserve the herd. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the impact of vaccination in acute SHIV-SIV infection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ribeiro, Ruy

2008-01-01

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infects approxmately 0.5% of the world population, and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A vaccine for HIV is urgently required, and a variety of vaccine modalities have been tested in animal models of infection. A number of these studies have shown protection in monkey models of infection, although the ability of the vaccine to protect appears to vary with the viral strain and animal model used. The recent failure of a large vaccine study in humans suggests that further understanding of the basic dynamics of infection and impact of vaccination are required,more » in order to understand the variable efficacy of vaccination in different infections. The dynamics of HIV infection have been studied in humans and in a variety of animal models. The standard model of infection has been used to estimate the basic reproductive ratio (R{sub 0}) of the virus, calculated from the growth rate of virus in acute infection. This method has not been useful in studying the effects of vaccination, since, in the vaccines developed so far, early growth rates of virus do not differ between control and vaccinated animals. Here, we use the standard model of viral dynamics to derive the reproductive ratio from the peak viral load and nadir of target cell numbers in acute infection. We apply this method to data from studies of vaccination in Simian Human Immunodeficiency Virus (SHIV) and Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) infection and demonstrate that vaccination can reduce the reproductive ratio by 2.3 and 2 fold respectively. This method allows the comparison of vaccination efficacy amongst different viral strains and animal models in vivo.« less

Effect of antibodies on pathogen dynamics with delays and two routes of infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elaiw, A. M.; Almatrafi, A. A.; Hobiny, A. D.

2018-06-01

We study the global stability of pathogen dynamics models with saturated pathogen-susceptible and infected-susceptible incidence. The models incorporate antibody immune response and three types of discrete or distributed time delays. We first show that the solutions of the model are nonnegative and ultimately bounded. We determine two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number and antibody response activation number. We establish the existence and stability of the steady states. We study the global stability analysis of models using Lyapunov method. The numerical simulations have shown that antibodies can reduce the pathogen progression.

The population-development tangle. Aspects and actors.

PubMed

Sen, G

1993-01-01

Since the 1974 Population Conference, the population field has become of interest to members of the fundamentalist right wing, feminists, and environmentalists. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the areas of agreement and disagreement among each set of actors as well as how they define the issues. Currently, development discourse is characterized by considerations of: 1) economic growth, 2) the provision of livelihoods, 3) the provision of basic needs, 4) ecological sustainability and renewability, and 5) political participation. The actors who define the terms of this discourse include: 1) corporate interests, which concentrate on economic growth; 2) international and national agencies, which place primary importance on economic growth and some importance on basic needs and ecological sustainability; 3) popular organizations and social movements, which concentrate on livelihoods, basic needs, and political participation; and 4) environmentalists, who focus on ecological sustainability, economic growth, and (occasionally) political participation. The field of population, on the other hand, is dominated by traditional populationists, whose primary focus is economic growth; developmentalists; the fundamentalist right, who are most concerned with family and control over reproduction; environmentalists; and the women's movement, which is most concerned with reproductive rights and reproductive health. When the perspective of poor women is considered, it can be seen that economic growth and ecological sustainability must support the securing of livelihoods, basic needs, political participation, and reproductive rights, and that reproductive health programs must be part of an overall health agenda.

Global stability analysis of two-strain epidemic model with bilinear and non-monotone incidence rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, Isa Abdullahi; Hincal, Evren

2017-05-01

In this article we studied an epidemic model consisting of two strains with different types of incidence rates; bilinear and non-monotone. The model consists of four equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium, endemic with respect to strain 1, endemic with respect to strain 2, and endemic with respect to both strains. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium points was carried out through the use of Lyapunov functions. Two basic reproduction ratios R 1 0 and R 2 0 are found, and we have shown that if both are less than one, the disease dies out, and if both are greater than one epidemic occurs. Furthermore, epidemics occur with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio greater than one and disease dies out with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio less than one. It was also shown that any strain with highest basic reproduction ratio will automatically outperform the other strain, thereby eliminating it. Numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytic result and to show the effect of the parameter k in the non-monotone incidence rate, which describes the psychological effect of general public towards infection.

A Mathematical Model of Anthrax Transmission in Animal Populations.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2017-02-01

A general mathematical model of anthrax (caused by Bacillus anthracis) transmission is formulated that includes live animals, infected carcasses and spores in the environment. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is calculated, and existence of a unique endemic equilibrium is established for [Formula: see text] above the threshold value 1. Using data from the literature, elasticity indices for [Formula: see text] and type reproduction numbers are computed to quantify anthrax control measures. Including only herbivorous animals, anthrax is eradicated if [Formula: see text]. For these animals, oscillatory solutions arising from Hopf bifurcations are numerically shown to exist for certain parameter values with [Formula: see text] and to have periodicity as observed from anthrax data. Including carnivores and assuming no disease-related death, anthrax again goes extinct below the threshold. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium is established above the threshold; thus, periodic solutions are not possible for these populations. It is shown numerically that oscillations in spore growth may drive oscillations in animal populations; however, the total number of infected animals remains about the same as with constant spore growth.

Strong propensity for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Vietnam: behavioural data and sexual network modelling.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Linus; Lu, Xin; Liljeros, Fredrik; Thanh, Hoang Huy; Thorson, Anna

2014-01-15

Survey data from men who have sex with men (MSM) in Asian cities indicate ongoing and drastic increases in HIV prevalence. It is unknown which behavioural factors are most important in driving these epidemics. We aimed to analyse detailed sexual behaviour data among MSM in Vietnam and to model HIV transmission using improved assumptions on sexual network structure. Vietnam. Internet-using men who had ever had sex (any type) with a man, aged ≥18 years and living in Vietnam. The study was cross-sectional, population-based and performed in 2012, using online respondent-driven sampling. The Internet-based survey instrument was completed by 982 participants, of which 857 were eligible. Questions included sociodemography and retrospective sexual behaviour, including number of unprotected anal sex (UAS) acts per partner. Estimated basic reproductive number over 3 months as a function of transmission risk per UAS act; frequency distributions of number of UAS partners and UAS acts during last 3 months. 36% (CI 32% to 42%) reported UAS at least once during the last 3 months. 36% (CI 32% to 41%) had ever taken an HIV test and received the result. UAS partner numbers and number of UAS acts were both highly skewed and positively correlated. Using a weighted configuration model, taking into account partner numbers, frequency of UAS and their correlations, we estimated the basic reproductive number (R0) over 3 months. The results indicated rapid transmission over a wide range of values of per-act transmissibility. Men with multiple partners had unexpectedly high UAS frequency per partner, paired with low HIV testing rates. The study highlights the importance of collecting data on frequency of UAS acts and indicates the need to rapidly scale-up HIV prevention services and testing opportunities for MSM in Vietnam.

SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Side, Syafruddin; Irwan, Mulbar, Usman; Sanusi, Wahidah

2017-09-01

Mathematical modelling and simulation for Hepatitis B discuss in this paper. Population devided by four variables, namely: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR). Several factors affect the population in this model is vaccination, immigration and emigration that occurred in the population. SEIR Model obtained Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) non-linear System 4-D which then reduces to 3-D. SEIR model simulation undertaken to predict the number of Hepatitis B cases. The results of the simulation indicates the number of Hepatitis B cases will increase and then decrease for several months. The result of simulation using the number of case in Makassar also found the basic reproduction number less than one, that means, Makassar city is not an endemic area of Hepatitis B.

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Chen, Qingmei; Jiang, Daqing

2016-05-01

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic properties of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the epidemic is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

Stability and bifurcation for an SEIS epidemic model with the impact of media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Hai-Feng; Yang, Peng; Xiang, Hong

2018-01-01

A novel SEIS epidemic model with the impact of media is introduced. By analyzing the characteristic equation of equilibrium, the basic reproduction number is obtained and the stability of the steady states is proved. The occurrence of a forward, backward and Hopf bifurcation is derived. Numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis are performed. Our results manifest that media can regard as a good indicator in controlling the emergence and spread of the epidemic disease.

Mathematical Model for Dengue Epidemics with Differential Susceptibility and Asymptomatic Patients Using Computer Algebra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saldarriaga Vargas, Clarita

When there are diseases affecting large populations where the social, economic and cultural diversity is significant within the same region, the biological parameters that determine the behavior of the dispersion disease analysis are affected by the selection of different individuals. Therefore and because of the variety and magnitude of the communities at risk of contracting dengue disease around all over the world, suggest defining differentiated populations with individual contributions in the results of the dispersion dengue disease analysis. In this paper those conditions were taken in account when several epidemiologic models were analyzed. Initially a stability analysis was done for a SEIR mathematical model of Dengue disease without differential susceptibility. Both free disease and endemic equilibrium states were found in terms of the basic reproduction number and were defined in the Theorem (3.1). Then a DSEIR model was solved when a new susceptible group was introduced to consider the effects of important biological parameters of non-homogeneous populations in the spreading analysis. The results were compiled in the Theorem (3.2). Finally Theorems (3.3) and (3.4) resumed the basic reproduction numbers for three and n different susceptible groups respectively, giving an idea of how differential susceptibility affects the equilibrium states. The computations were done using an algorithmic method implemented in Maple 11, a general-purpose computer algebra system.

Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan.

PubMed

Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y A; Munyakazi, Justin B; Ouifki, Rachid; Clark, Allan E

2018-01-01

A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model's basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs' coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce [Formula: see text] and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs' distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.

Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number.

PubMed

Vogels, Chantal B F; Hartemink, Nienke; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M

2017-07-10

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R 0 ) models. However, existing R 0 models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R 0 model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R 0 values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R 0 . Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R 0 shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.

Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowell, Gerardo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2008-03-01

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

PubMed

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice

PubMed Central

Dobay, Akos; Pilo, Paola; Lindholm, Anna K.; Origgi, Francesco; Bagheri, Homayoun C.; König, Barbara

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R 0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics. PMID:26536232

A SEIR model for transmission of tuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Side, Syafruddin; Mulbar, Usman; Sidjara, Sahlan; Sanusi, Wahidah

2017-04-01

In this paper will be described Tuberculosis (TB) transmission using Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. SEIR model for transmission of TB were analyzed and performed simulations using data on the number of TB cases in South Sulawesi. The results showed that the levels of the basic reproduction ratio R0 using the model of SEIR is R0 ≤ 1, it means that the status of TB disease in South Sulawesi is at a stage that is not alarming, but based on simulation results using MatLab, predicted that the number of infection cases will continue to increase therefore government needs to take preventive measures to control and reduce the number of TB infections in South Sulawesi.

Assessing age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Ryo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2017-06-05

Routine vaccination against measles in Japan started in 1978. Whereas measles elimination was verified in 2015, multiple chains of measles transmission were observed in 2016. We aimed to reconstruct the age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan so that future vaccination strategies can be elucidated. An epidemiological model was used to quantify the age-dependent immune fraction using datasets of vaccination coverage and seroepidemiological survey. The second dose was interpreted in two different scenarios, i.e., booster and random shots. The effective reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases generated by a single infected individual, and the age at infection were explored using the age-dependent transmission model and the next generation matrix. While the herd immunity threshold of measles likely ranges from 90% to 95%, assuming that the basic reproductive number ranges from 10 to 20, the estimated immune fraction in Japan was below those thresholds in 2016, despite the fact that the estimates were above 80% for all ages. If the second dose completely acted as the booster shot, a proportion immune above 90% was achieved only among those aged 5years or below in 2016. Alternatively, if the second dose was randomly distributed regardless of primary vaccination status, a proportion immune over 90% was achieved among those aged below 25years. The effective reproduction number was estimated to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and from 1.50 to 3.00, respectively, for scenarios 1 and 2 in 2016; if the current vaccination schedule were continued, the reproduction number is projected to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and 1.39 to 2.78, respectively, in 2025. Japan continues to be prone to imported cases of measles. Supplementary vaccination among adults aged 20-49years would be effective if the chains of transmission continue to be observed in that age group. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections during 2013 novel H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ying-Hen; Wu, Jianhong; Fang, Jian; Yang, Yong; Lou, Jie

2014-01-01

From February to May, 2013, 132 human avian influenza H7N9 cases were identified in China resulting in 37 deaths. We developed a novel, simple and effective compartmental modeling framework for transmissions among (wild and domestic) birds as well as from birds to human, to infer important epidemiological quantifiers, such as basic reproduction number for bird epidemic, bird-to-human infection rate and turning points of the epidemics, for the epidemic via human H7N9 case onset data and to acquire useful information regarding the bird-to-human transmission dynamics. Estimated basic reproduction number for infections among birds is 4.10 and the mean daily number of human infections per infected bird is 3.16*10-5 [3.08*10-5, 3.23*10-5]. The turning point of 2013 H7N9 epidemic is pinpointed at April 16 for bird infections and at April 9 for bird-to-human transmissions. Our result reveals very low level of bird-to-human infections, thus indicating minimal risk of widespread bird-to-human infections of H7N9 virus during the outbreak. Moreover, the turning point of the human epidemic, pinpointed at shortly after the implementation of full-scale control and intervention measures initiated in early April, further highlights the impact of timely actions on ending the outbreak. This is the first study where both the bird and human components of an avian influenza epidemic can be quantified using only the human case data.

Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013.

PubMed

Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K; Beisembayev, Kanatzhan K; Кorennoy, Fedor I; Yessembekova, Gulzhan N; Кushubaev, Dosym B; Кadyrov, Ablaikhan S

2016-05-31

This study estimated the basic reproductive ratio of rabies at the population level in wild animals (foxes), farm animals (cattle, camels, horses, sheep) and what we classified as domestic animals (cats, dogs) in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). It also aimed at forecasting the possible number of new outbreaks in case of emergence of the disease in new territories. We considered cases of rabies in animals in RK from 2010 to 2013, recorded by regional veterinary services. Statistically significant space-time clusters of outbreaks in three subpopulations were detected by means of Kulldorff Scan statistics. Theoretical curves were then fitted to epidemiological data within each cluster assuming exponential initial growth, which was followed up by calculation of the basic reproductive ratio R0. For farm animals, the value of R0 was 1.62 (1.11-2.26) and for wild animals 1.84 (1.08- 3.13), while it was close to 1 for domestic animals. Using the values obtained, an initial phase of possible epidemic was simulated in order to predict the expected number of secondary cases if the disease were introduced into a new area. The possible number of new cases for 20 weeks was estimated at 5 (1-16) for farm animals, 17 (1-113) for wild animals and about 1 in the category of domestic animals. These results have been used to produce set of recommendations for organising of preventive and contra-epizootic measures against rabies expected to be applied by state veterinarian services.

Design of the biosonar simulator for dolphin's clicks waveform reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Ken; Akamatsu, Tomonari; Hatakeyama, Yoshimi

1992-03-01

The emitted clicks of Dall's porpoises consist of a pulse train of burst signals with an ultrasonic carrier frequency. The authors have designed a biosonar simulator to reproduce the waveforms associated with a dolphin's clicks underwater. The total reproduction system consists of a click signal acquisition block, a waveform analysis block, a memory unit, a click simulator, and a underwater, ultrasonic wave transmitter. In operation, data stored in an EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory) are read out sequentially by a fast clock and converted to analog output signals. Then an ultrasonic power amplifier reproduces these signals through a transmitter. The click signal replaying block is referred to as the BSS (Biosonar Simulator). This is what simulates the clicks. The details of the BSS are described in this report. A unit waveform is defined. The waveform is divided into a burst period and a waiting period. Clicks are a sequence based on a unit waveform, and digital data are sequentially read out from an EPROM of waveform data. The basic parameters of the BSS are as follows: (1) reading clock, 100 ns to 25.4 microseconds; (2) number of reading clock, 34 to 1024 times; (3) counter clock in a waiting period, 100 ns to 25.4 microseconds; (4) number of counter clock, zero to 16,777,215 times; (5) number of burst/waiting repetition cycle, one to 128 times; and (6) transmission level adjustment by a programmable attenuator, zero to 86.5 dB. These basic functions enable the BSS to replay clicks of Dall's porpoise precisely.

ASPECTS OF BASIC REPRODUCTIVE BIOLOGY AND ENDOCRINOLOGY IN THE FATHEAD MINNOW (PIMEPHALES PROMELAS)

EPA Science Inventory

The fathead minnow has been proposed as a model species for assessing the adverse effects of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) on reproduction and development. The purpose of these studies was to develop baseline reproductive biology and endocrinology data for this species to...

Optimization of the incubation time and temperature for spermatozoa extraction in freshwater crayfish Pontastacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823).

PubMed

Farhadi, Ardavan; Harlıoğlu, Muzaffer Mustafa; Gür, Seyfettin; Acısu, Tutku Can

2018-06-01

Determination and control of spermatozoa quality in crustacean aquaculture is an important issue for successful and controlled reproduction. Investigation of spermatozoa number in spermatophores is a basic and common parameter for determining the reproductive quality in farmed decapods. In the present study, spermatozoa extraction from spermatophores located in the ductus deferens was conducted in Pontastacus leptodactylus using different incubation times and temperatures. The results indicate that the duration of incubation and temperature affected (P < 0.05) spermatozoa extraction. Greater temperatures (40 and 75 °C) resulted in a reduction (P < 0.05) in number of extracted spermatozoa. In contrast, more spermatozoa were extracted when the 4 and 23 °C temperatures were imposed. After 4 h of incubation, the number of extracted spermatozoa were greatest in number at 23 °C. In conclusion, the greater numbers of crayfish spermatozoa can be obtained when the ductus deferens containing spermatophores is incubated at 23 °C for 4 h as compared with other temperatures and incubation durations. The results of present study are useful for assessing spermatozoa quality in aquaculture as well as the extraction of spermatozoa for research purposes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social Reproduction and the Student Decision to Follow the Louisiana Career/Basic Core Diploma Path at a Large, Affluent High School in Northeastern Louisiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whittock, Tammy

2013-01-01

Through this mixed-method study, the researcher investigated social reproduction in a student's decision to follow the Louisiana Career/Basic Core Diploma Path. In 2008-2009, Louisiana's cohort graduation rate was 67.3%, which was well below the national average of 75.5%, ranking Louisiana forty-sixth in the country. This rate led to the…

Reproductive endocrinology of llamas and alpacas.

PubMed

Bravo, P W

1994-07-01

The physiology of reproduction with emphasis in endocrinology of llamas and alpacas is addressed. Basic concepts of ovarian follicular dynamics, endocrine events associated with induction of ovulation, corpus luteum formation, pregnancy, parturition, postpartum interval, puberty, and sexual behavior on the female are reviewed. Pathologic conditions of the reproductive process are also reviewed.

Dynamics of synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general incidence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Xiang, Hong; Li, Jun

2018-02-01

Synthetic drugs are replacing traditional ones and becoming the main popular ones gradually, which have given rise to serious social issues in recent years. In this paper, a synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general contact rate is proposed. The local and global stabilities are decided by the basic reproduction number R0. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters, we obtain that controlling psychological addiction is better than drugs treatment. These results are verified by numerical simulations.

Dynamic analysis of a stochastic rumor propagation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying

2018-01-01

The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, leads rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic rumor propagation model. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the rumor are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the rumor is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

2015-08-01

A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 < 1 , and the disease will persist in the population if R0 > 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.

PubMed

Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano

2016-04-14

Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

The Preventive Control of a Dengue Disease Using Pontryagin Minimum Principal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratna Sari, Eminugroho; Insani, Nur; Lestari, Dwi

2017-06-01

Behaviour analysis for host-vector model without control of dengue disease is based on the value of basic reproduction number obtained using next generation matrices. Furthermore, the model is further developed involving a preventive control to minimize the contact between host and vector. The purpose is to obtain an optimal preventive strategy with minimal cost. The Pontryagin Minimum Principal is used to find the optimal control analytically. The derived optimality model is then solved numerically to investigate control effort to reduce infected class.

Floral ontogeny and gene protein localization rules out euanthial interpretation of reproductive units in Lepironia (Cyperaceae, Mapanioideae, Chrysitricheae)

PubMed Central

Prychid, C. J.; Bruhl, J. J.

2013-01-01

Background and Aims In the sedge subfamily Mapanioideae there are considerable discrepancies between the standard trimerous monocot floral architecture expected and the complex floral and inflorescence morphologies seen. Decades of debate about whether the basic reproductive units are single flowers or pseudanthia have not resolved the question. This paper evaluates current knowledge about Mapaniid reproductive structures and presents an ontogenetic study of the Mapaniid genus Lepironia with the first floral protein expression maps for the family, localizing the products of the APETALA1/FRUITFULL-like (AP1/FUL) MADS-box genes with the aim of shedding light on this conundrum. Methods A range of reproductive developmental stages, from spikelet primordia through to infructescence material, were processed for anatomical and immunohistochemical analyses. Key Results The basic reproductive unit is subtended by a bract and possesses two prophyll-like structures, the first organs to be initiated on the primordium, which grow rapidly, enclosing two whorls of initiating leaf-like structures with intervening stamens and a central gynoecium, formed from an annular primordium. The subtending bract and prophyll-like structures possess very different morphologies from that of the internal leaf-like structures and do not show AP1/FUL-like protein localization, which is otherwise strongly localized in the internal leaf-like structures, stamens and gynoecia. Conclusions Results support the synanthial hypothesis as the evolutionary origin of the reproductive unit. Thus, the basic reproductive unit in Lepironia is an extremely condensed pseudanthium, of staminate flowers surrounding a central terminal pistillate female flower. Early in development the reproductive unit becomes enclosed by a split-prophyll, with the whole structure subtended by a bract. PMID:23723258

Effects of zinc and female aging on nymphal life history in a grasshopper from polluted sites.

PubMed

Augustyniak, Maria; Babczyńska, Agnieszka; Kozłowski, Michał; Sawczyn, Tomasz; Augustyniak, Michał

2008-01-01

Insect reproduction is influenced by various factors, including food quality and quantity, temperature, population density and female age. Contamination, including heavy metals, may disturb reproductive processes. The aim of this work was to assess interactions between effects of aging in female Chorthippus brunneus and environmental pollution on their reproduction measured in number of laid eggs. We also compared basic developmental parameters (number of hatchlings, body mass, embryonic developmental rate) in grasshopper nymphs additionally exposed to zinc during diapause. Aging grasshoppers from heavily polluted areas (Olkusz and Szopienice) lay significantly fewer eggs than insects from the reference site (Pilica). Zinc application caused the decrease in hatching success and duration of embryogenesis in insects from each site. This suggests a cumulative effect of female age, pollutants and additional stressing factors. The intensity of this process differed between populations. In insects from the reference site, it was shown in a moderate degree. In insects from Szopienice, an additional stressor exerted a weaker effect than in insects from Pilica. In grasshoppers from Olkusz, we found the strongest decrease of hatching percentage and increase in duration of embryogenesis after zinc intoxication. This may indicate that the population from Olkusz exists at the limit of its energetic abilities.

The links between hypertrophy, reproductive potential and longevity in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast.

PubMed

Molon, Mateusz; Zadrag-Tecza, Renata

2016-01-01

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has long been used as a model organism for studying the basic mechanisms of aging. However, the main problem with the use of this unicellular fungus is the unit of "longevity". For all organisms, lifespan is expressed in units of time, while in the case of yeast it is defined by the number of daughter cells produced. Additionally, in yeast the phenotypic effects of mutations often show a clear dependence on the genetic background, suggesting the need for an analysis of strains representing different genetic backgrounds. Our results confirm the data presented in earlier papers that the reproductive potential is strongly associated with an increase in cell volume per generation. An excessive cell volume results in the loss of reproductive capacity. These data clearly support the hypertrophy hypothesis. The time of life of all analysed mutants, with the exception of sch9D, is the same as in the case of the wild-type strain. Interestingly, the 121% increase of the fob1D mutant's reproductive potential compared to the sfp1D mutant does not result in prolongation of the mutant's time of life (total lifespan).

Research in nondomestic species: experiences in reproductive physiology research for conservation of endangered felids.

PubMed

Swanson, William F

2003-01-01

Tremendous strides have been made in recent years to broaden our understanding of reproductive processes in nondomestic felid species and further our capacity to use this basic knowledge to control and manipulate reproduction of endangered cats. Much of that progress has culminated from detailed scientific studies conducted in nontraditional laboratory settings, frequently at collaborating zoological parks but also under more primitive conditions, including in the field. A mobile laboratory approach is described, which incorporates a diverse array of disciplines and research techniques. This approach has been extremely useful, especially for conducting gamete characterization and function studies as well as reproductive surveys, and for facilitating the development of assisted reproductive technology. With continuing advances in assisted reproduction in rare felids, more procedures are being conducted primarily as service-related activities, targeted to increase effectiveness of species propagation and population management. It can be a challenge for both investigators and institutional animal care and use committees (IACUCs) to differentiate these service-based procedures from traditional research studies (that require IACUC oversight). For research with rare cat species, multi-institutional collaboration frequently is necessary to gain access to scientifically meaningful numbers of study subjects. Similarly, for service-based efforts, the ability to perform reproductive procedures across institutions under nonstandard laboratory conditions is critical to applying reproductive sciences for managing and preserving threatened cat populations. Reproductive sciences can most effectively assist population management programs (e.g., Species Survival Plans) in addressing conservation priorities if these research and service-related procedures can be conducted "on the road" at distant national and international locales. This mobile laboratory approach has applications beyond endangered species research, notably for other scientific fields (e.g., studies of hereditary disease in domestic cat models) in which bringing the laboratory to the subject is of value.

[Basic reproduction rate and its application in schistosomiasis].

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing

2013-02-01

A key parameter in the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis, namely basic reproduction rate (R0) is introduced in this paper, as well as its epidemiological significance, formulas in mathematical models of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics, and its application in the evaluation of schistosomiasis control measures. It suggests that the studies on transmission thresholds such as R0 are of important theoretical guiding significance to the establishment of a schistosomiasis elimination standard in China.

The effect of sexual transmission on Zika virus dynamics.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

2018-04-25

Zika virus is a human disease that may lead to neurological disorders in affected individuals, and may be transmitted vectorially (by mosquitoes) or sexually. A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission is formulated, taking into account mosquitoes, sexually active males and females, inactive individuals, and considering both vector transmission and sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females. Basic reproduction numbers are computed, and disease control strategies are evaluated. The effect of the incidence function used to model sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females is investigated. It is proved that for such functions that are sublinear, if the basic reproduction [Formula: see text], then the disease dies out and [Formula: see text] is a sharp threshold. Moreover, under certain conditions on model parameters and assuming mass action incidence for sexual transmission, it is proved that if [Formula: see text], there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. However, under nonlinear incidence, it is shown that for certain functions backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation may occur, giving rise to subthreshold equilibria and periodic solutions, respectively. Numerical simulations for various parameter values are displayed to illustrate these behaviours.

Population dynamics of live-attenuated virus vaccines.

PubMed

Wagner, Bradley G; Earn, David J D

2010-03-01

Viruses contained in live-attenuated virus vaccines (LAVV) can be transmitted between individuals, resulting in secondary or contact vaccinations. This fact has been exploited successfully in the use of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) to better control wild-type polio viruses. In this work we analyze general LAVV vaccination models for infections that confer lifelong immunity. We consider both standard (continuous) vaccination strategies and pulse vaccination programs (where mass vaccination is carried out at regular intervals). For continuous vaccination, we provide a complete global analysis of a very general compartmental ordinary differential equation LAVV model. We find that the threshold vaccination level required for the eradication of wild-type virus depends on the basic reproduction numbers of both the wild-type and vaccine viruses, but is otherwise independent of the distributions of the durations in each of the sequence of stages of disease progression (e.g., latent, infectious, etc.). Furthermore, even for vaccine viruses with reproduction numbers below one, which would naturally fade from the population upon cessation of vaccination, there can be a significant reduction in the threshold vaccination level. The dependence of the threshold vaccination level on the virus reproduction numbers largely generalizes to the pulse vaccination model. For shorter pulsing periods there is negligible difference in threshold vaccination level as compared to continuous vaccination campaigns. Thus, we conclude that current policy in many countries to employ annual pulsed OPV vaccination does not significantly diminish the benefits of contact vaccination. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: a mathematic analysis.

PubMed

Bogaards, Johannes Antonie; Putter, Hein; Jan Weverling, Gerrit; Ter Meulen, Jan; Goudsmit, Jaap

2007-03-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak. We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number R, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios. Assuming a basic reproduction number R(0)=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Control may be enhanced by providing pre-exposure prophylaxis to contacts of hospitalized patients, and through contact tracing and provision of post-exposure prophylaxis. Antibody prophylaxis may also be employed to reduce R below one and thereby restrict outbreak size and duration. Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher R(0) values and restricts both the size and duration of an outbreak.

Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

PubMed

Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

2018-04-10

In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the basic reproduction number to assess the effects of climate change in the risk of Chagas disease transmission in Colombia.

PubMed

Cordovez, Juan M; Rendon, Lina Maria; Gonzalez, Camila; Guhl, Felipe

2014-01-01

The dynamics of vector-borne diseases has often been linked to climate change. However the commonly complex dynamics of vector-borne diseases make it very difficult to predict risk based on vector or host distributions. The basic reproduction number (R0) integrates all factors that determine whether a pathogen can establish or not. To obtain R0 for complex vector-borne diseases one can use the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach. We used the NGM to compute R0 for Chagas disease in Colombia incorporating the effect of temperature in some of the transmission routes of Trypanosoma cruzi. We used R0 to generate a risk map of present conditions and a forecast risk map at 20 years from now based on mean annual temperature (data obtained from Worldclim). In addition we used the model to compute elasticity and sensitivity indexes on all model parameters and routes of transmission. We present this work as an approach to indicate which transmission pathways are more critical for disease transmission but acknowledge the fact that results and projections strongly depend on better knowledge of entomological parameters and transmission routes. We concluded that the highest contribution to R0 comes from transmission of the parasites from humans to vectors, which is a surprising result. In addition,parameters related to contacts between human and vectors and the efficiency of parasite transmission between them also show a prominent effect on R0.

The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

PubMed

Jackson, Charlotte; Mangtani, Punam; Hawker, Jeremy; Olowokure, Babatunde; Vynnycky, Emilia

2014-01-01

School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies. We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns. School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number <2), and if attack rates were higher in children than in adults. The cumulative attack rate was expected to change less than the peak, but quantitative predictions varied (e.g. reductions in the peak were frequently 20-60% but some studies predicted >90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns. Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

Effect of (social) media on the political figure fever model: Jokowi-fever model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Benny; Samat, Nor Azah

2016-02-01

In recent years, political figures begin to utilize social media as one of alternative to engage in communication with their supporters. Publics referred to Jokowi, one of the candidates in Indonesia presidential election in 2014, as the first politician in Indonesia to truly understand the power of social media. Social media is very important in shaping public opinion. In this paper, effect of social media on the Jokowi-fever model in a closed population will be discussed. Supporter population is divided into three class sub-population, i.e susceptible supporters, Jokowi infected supporters, and recovered supporters. For case no positive media, there are two equilibrium points; the Jokowi-fever free equilibrium point in which it locally stable if basic reproductive ratio less than one and the Jokowi-fever endemic equilibrium point in which it locally stable if basic reproductive ratio greater than one. For case no negative media, there is only the Jokowi-fever endemic equilibrium point in which it locally stable if the condition is satisfied. Generally, for case positive media proportion is positive, there is no Jokowi-fever free equilibrium point. The numerical result shows that social media gives significantly effect on Jokowi-fever model, a sharp increase or a sharp decrease in the number of Jokowi infected supporters. It is also shown that the boredom rate is one of the sensitive parameters in the Jokowi-fever model; it affects the number of Jokowi infected supporters.

Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

PubMed

Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

2013-01-01

We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

GENDER BASED DIFFERENCES IN ENDOCRINE AND REPRODUCTIVE TOXICITY

EPA Science Inventory

Basic differences in male versus female reproductive physiology lead to differentials in their respective susceptibilities to chemical insult as evidenced by a variety of observations. As individuals undergo maturation from prenatal sex differentiation through pubertal developme...

Fern Gametophytes in Culture--A Simple System for Studying Plant Development and Reproduction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyer, A. F.

1983-01-01

Discusses fern life cycle and basic techniques for culturing fern gametophytes in the classroom. Also discusses investigations into the reproductive biology of ferns and into the early development of gametophytes. (JN)

Gene Silencing in Crustaceans: From Basic Research to Biotechnologies

PubMed Central

Sagi, Amir; Manor, Rivka; Ventura, Tomer

2013-01-01

Gene silencing through RNA interference (RNAi) is gaining momentum for crustaceans, both in basic research and for commercial development. RNAi has proven instrumental in a growing number of crustacean species, revealing the functionality of novel crustacean genes essential among others to development, growth, metabolism and reproduction. Extensive studies have also been done on silencing of viral transcripts in crustaceans, contributing to the understanding of the defense mechanisms of crustaceans and strategies employed by viruses to overcome these. The first practical use of gene silencing in aquaculture industry has been recently achieved, through manipulation of a crustacean insulin-like androgenic gland hormone. This review summarizes the advancements in the use of RNAi in crustaceans, and assesses the advantages of this method, as well as the current hurdles that hinder its large-scale practice. PMID:24705266

Does media coverage influence the spread of drug addiction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Li, Jun

2017-09-01

In this paper, a three dimensional drug model is constructed to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of drug addiction. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. The drug-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and the drug addiction equilibrium is locally stable if R0 > 1. The results demonstrate that the media effect in human population cannot change the stabilities of equilibria but can affect the number of drug addicts. Sensitivity analyses are performed to seek for effective control measures for drug treatment. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Branching habit and the allocation of reproductive resources in conifers.

PubMed

Leslie, Andrew B

2012-09-01

Correlated relationships between branch thickness, branch density, and twig and leaf size have been used extensively to study the evolution of plant canopy architecture, but fewer studies have explored the impact of these relationships on the allocation of reproductive resources. This study quantifies pollen cone production in conifers, which have similar basic reproductive biology but vary dramatically in branching habit, in order to test how differences in branch diameter influence pollen cone size and the density with which they are deployed in the canopy. Measurements of canopy branch density, the number of cones per branch and cone size were used to estimate the amount of pollen cone tissues produced by 16 species in three major conifer clades. The number of pollen grains produced was also estimated using direct counts from individual pollen cones. The total amount of pollen cone tissues in the conifer canopy varied little among species and clades, although vegetative traits such as branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size varied over several orders of magnitude. However, branching habit controls the way these tissues are deployed: taxa with small branches produce small pollen cones at a high density, while taxa with large branches produce large cones relatively sparsely. Conifers appear to invest similar amounts of energy in pollen production independent of branching habit. However, similar associations between branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size are seen across conifers, including members of living and extinct groups not directly studied here. This suggests that reproductive features relating to pollen cone size are in large part a function of the evolution of vegetative morphology and branching habit.

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic epidemic model with specific functional response and temporary immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattaf, Khalid; Mahrouf, Marouane; Adnani, Jihad; Yousfi, Noura

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a stochastic delayed epidemic model with specific functional response. The time delay represents temporary immunity period, i.e., time from recovery to becoming susceptible again. We first show that the proposed model is mathematically and biologically well-posed. Moreover, the extinction of the disease and the persistence in the mean are established in the terms of a threshold value R0S which is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the corresponding deterministic system.

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

2016-11-01

In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

Global stability in a tuberculosis model of imperfect treatment with age-dependent latency and relapse.

PubMed

Ren, Shanjing

In this paper, an SEIR epidemic model for an imperfect treatment disease with age-dependent latency and relapse is proposed. The model is well-suited to model tuberculosis. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated. We obtain the global behavior of the model in terms of R0. If R0< 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if R0>1, a Lyapunov functional is used to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable amongst solutions for which the disease is present.

Reproductive Toxicology Testing with EDCS

EPA Science Inventory

An introduction to reproductive toxicology: the basic approaches to testing chemicals for adverse effects using multigenerational studies with rats and how the regulatory agencies used the data in risk assessments. Case studies were presented of how endocrine or genomic data were...

REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS

PubMed Central

Goldstein, E.; Paur, K.; Fraser, C.; Kenah, E.; Wallinga, J.; Lipsitch, M.

2009-01-01

Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-household reproductive number, leaky vaccine-associated reproductive numbers, perfect vaccine reproductive number, growth rate reproductive number, and the individual reproductive number. Each of those carries different information about the transmission dynamics and the required control measures, and often some of those can be estimated from the data while others cannot. Simulations have shown that under certain scenarios there is an ordering for those reproductive numbers. We have proven a number of ordering inequalities under general assumptions about the individual infectiousness profiles. Those inequalities allow, for instance, to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and other control measures without knowing the various transmission parameters in the models. Along the way, we’ve also shown that in choosing between increasing vaccine efficacy and increasing coverage levels by the same factor, preference should go to efficacy. PMID:19559715

Applying human rights to improve access to reproductive health services.

PubMed

Shaw, Dorothy; Cook, Rebecca J

2012-10-01

Universal access to reproductive health is a target of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5B, and along with MDG 5A to reduce maternal mortality by three-quarters, progress is currently too slow for most countries to achieve these targets by 2015. Critical to success are increased and sustainable numbers of skilled healthcare workers and financing of essential medicines by governments, who have made political commitments in United Nations forums to renew their efforts to reduce maternal mortality. National essential medicine lists are not reflective of medicines available free or at cost in facilities or in the community. The WHO Essential Medicines List indicates medicines required for maternal and newborn health including the full range of contraceptives and emergency contraception, but there is no consistent monitoring of implementation of national lists through procurement and supply even for basic essential drugs. Health advocates are using human rights mechanisms to ensure governments honor their legal commitments to ensure access to services essential for reproductive health. Maternal mortality is recognized as a human rights violation by the United Nations and constitutional and human rights are being used, and could be used more effectively, to improve maternity services and to ensure access to drugs essential for reproductive health. Copyright © 2012 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the basic reproduction rate of HFMD using the time series SIR model in Guangdong, China

PubMed Central

Du, Zhicheng; Zhang, Wangjian; Zhang, Dingmei; Yu, Shicheng

2017-01-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden of disease in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on notifiable cases, we use the time series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to estimate the basic reproduction rate (R0) and the herd immunity threshold, understanding the transmission and persistence of HFMD more completely for efficient intervention in this province. The standardized difference between the reported and fitted time series of HFMD was 0.009 (<0.2). The median basic reproduction rate of total, enterovirus 71, and coxsackievirus 16 cases in Guangdong were 4.621 (IQR: 3.907–5.823), 3.023 (IQR: 2.289–4.292) and 7.767 (IQR: 6.903–10.353), respectively. The heatmap of R0 showed semiannual peaks of activity, including a major peak in spring and early summer (about the 12th week) followed by a smaller peak in autumn (about the 36th week). The county-level model showed that Longchuan (R0 = 33), Gaozhou (R0 = 24), Huazhou (R0 = 23) and Qingxin (R0 = 19) counties have higher basic reproduction rate than other counties in the province. The epidemic of HFMD in Guangdong Province is still grim, and strategies like the World Health Organization’s expanded program on immunization need to be implemented. An elimination of HFMD in Guangdong might need a Herd Immunity Threshold of 78%. PMID:28692654

Cryopreservation of embryos and oocytes in human assisted reproduction.

PubMed

Konc, János; Kanyó, Katalin; Kriston, Rita; Somoskői, Bence; Cseh, Sándor

2014-01-01

Both sperm and embryo cryopreservation have become routine procedures in human assisted reproduction and oocyte cryopreservation is being introduced into clinical practice and is getting more and more widely used. Embryo cryopreservation has decreased the number of fresh embryo transfers and maximized the effectiveness of the IVF cycle. The data shows that women who had transfers of fresh and frozen embryos obtained 8% additional births by using their cryopreserved embryos. Oocyte cryopreservation offers more advantages compared to embryo freezing, such as fertility preservation in women at risk of losing fertility due to oncological treatment or chronic disease, egg donation, and postponing childbirth, and eliminates religious and/or other ethical, legal, and moral concerns of embryo freezing. In this review, the basic principles, methodology, and practical experiences as well as safety and other aspects concerning slow cooling and ultrarapid cooling (vitrification) of human embryos and oocytes are summarized.

"When You're a Baby You Don't Have Puberty": Understanding of Puberty and Human Reproduction in Late Childhood and Early Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurwitz, Lisa B.; Lauricella, Alexis R.; Hightower, Brianna; Sroka, Iris; Woodruff, Teresa K.; Wartella, Ellen

2017-01-01

Basic knowledge of human reproduction can help youth prepare for puberty and make later classes focused on advanced reproductive health topics manageable. With the intention of potentially informing the creation of learning materials, we conducted a needs assessment among children ages 7 to 12 in our suburban Chicago community to ascertain their…

A climate-based malaria model with the use of bed nets.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-07-01

Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) are among the most important and effective intervention measures against malaria. In order to investigate the impact of bed net use on disease control, we formulate a periodic vector-bias malaria model incorporating the juvenile stage of mosquitoes and the use of ITNs. We derive the vector reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text]. We show that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by these two reproduction ratios. More precisely, the mosquito-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text]; the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]; and the model admits a unique positive periodic solution and it is globally attractive if [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we study the malaria transmission case in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. Our findings show that the use of ITNs has a positive effect on reducing [Formula: see text], and that malaria may be eliminated from this area if over 75% of the human population were to use ITNs. The simulation about the long term behavior of solutions has good agreement with the obtained analytic result. Moreover, we find that the ignorance of the vector-bias effect may result in underestimation of the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text]. Another notable result is that the infection risk would be underestimated if the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] of the time-averaged autonomous system were used.

AIDS and the future of reproductive freedom.

PubMed

Bayer, Ronald

1990-01-01

The specter of pediatric AIDS fundamentally challenges elements of the liberal ideological basis of women's reproductive freedom. Many public health officials hold that preventing transmission of HIV from mother to fetus requires efforts to discourage pregnancy by infected women. For over two decades, however, genetic counselors, feminists, and medical ethicists have stressed the importance of nondirective counseling in the context of reproductive choice. The question now confronted by American society is whether it will be possible to frame an ideology of reproductive choice that recognizes the limits of liberal individualism, while preserving the basic features of reproductive freedom.

Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data

PubMed Central

Glass, K.; Mercer, G. N.; Nishiura, H.; McBryde, E. S.; Becker, N. G.

2011-01-01

We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix. PMID:21345858

Male reproductive system and spermatophores production and storage in Histioteuthis bonnellii (Cephalopoda: Histioteuthidae): A look into deep-sea squids' reproductive strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuccu, Danila; Mereu, Marco; Agus, Blondine; Cau, Angelo; Culurgioni, Jacopo; Sabatini, Andrea; Jereb, Patrizia

2014-09-01

Coleoid cephalopods go through a single breeding period in their life cycle, i.e., they are semelparous, although a great flexibility has been observed in their reproductive strategies, which range from simultaneous terminal spawning over a short period at the end of the animal's life to continuous spawning over a long period of the animal's life. So far, the information available on deep-sea species reproductive strategies is still poor and most of our knowledge about squid reproduction relates to females. In particular, not much is known on what strategy male squids have evolved to store sperm into spermatophores and adapt to semelparity. In this study an investigation of male reproductive strategy of the deep-sea umbrella squid Histioteuthis bonnellii (Férussac, 1835) is presented. The reproductive system was examined in 119 males caught in the Sardinian waters (Central Western Mediterranean) and is described for the first time. Results indicate that this species produces and stores spermatophores over a considerable period of time. The total number of spermatophores found in the reproductive system ranged between 12 and 3097 and the size of spermatophores stored by a single individual varied greatly, up to over 300%. Spermatophore length (SpL) gradually decreased towards the distal end of the reproductive system, so that spermatophores found in the proximal part of Needham's Sac were larger than those found in the terminal organ. Body size and SpL of spermatophores from the proximal part of Needham's Sac were positively correlated. Both indices of the sperm mass and of the ejaculatory apparatus decreased with the increase of SpL, while the cement body index increased, indicating that larger spermatophores contain less sperm and are equipped with larger cement bodies. Up to 64 spermatangia were found, exclusively in the terminal organ. The large size range of mature males (ML: 60.0-198.0 mm; TW: 113.50-2409.00 g) and the variation in spermatophore number and size indicate that in H. bonnellii males the allocation and storage of sperm start early in the individual life and extends in time, while animals continue to grow and produce spermatophores presumably more successful in attaching to female tissues. This pattern enlarges the time window available for reproduction and likely maximizes the percentage of mating success as the animals grow older and chances of mating events become comparatively lower, due to the basic low density of specimens in the deep-sea environment. Both aspects are potentially indicative of adaptation to the deep sea.

Sexual selection, genetic conflict, selfish genes, and the atypical patterns of gene expression in spermatogenic cells.

PubMed

Kleene, Kenneth C

2005-01-01

This review proposes that the peculiar patterns of gene expression in spermatogenic cells are the consequence of powerful evolutionary forces known as sexual selection. Sexual selection is generally characterized by intense competition of males for females, an enormous variety of the strategies to maximize male reproductive success, exaggerated male traits at all levels of biological organization, co-evolution of sexual traits in males and females, and conflict between the sexual advantage of the male trait and the reproductive fitness of females and the individual fitness of both sexes. In addition, spermatogenesis is afflicted by selfish genes that promote their transmission to progeny while causing deleterious effects. Sexual selection, selfish genes, and genetic conflict provide compelling explanations for many atypical features of gene expression in spermatogenic cells including the gross overexpression of certain mRNAs, transcripts encoding truncated proteins that cannot carry out basic functions of the proteins encoded by the same genes in somatic cells, the large number of gene families containing paralogous genes encoding spermatogenic cell-specific isoforms, the large number of testis-cancer-associated genes that are expressed only in spermatogenic cells and malignant cells, and the overbearing role of Sertoli cells in regulating the number and quality of spermatozoa.

SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Side, Syafruddin; Irwan, Mulbar, Usman; Sanusi, Wahidah

2017-09-01

Mathematical modelling and simulation for Hepatitis B discuss in this paper. Population devided by four variables, namely: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR). Several factors affect the population in this model is vaccination, immigration and emigration that occurred in the population. SEIR Model obtained Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) non-linear System 4-D which then reduces to 3-D. SEIR model simulation undertaken to predict the number of Hepatitis B cases. The results of the simulation indicates the number of Hepatitis B cases will increase and then decrease for several months. The result of simulation using the number of case in Makassar also found the basic reproduction number less than one, that means, Makassar city is not an endemic area of Hepatitis B. With approval from the proceedings editor article 020185 titled, "SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B," is retracted from the public record, as it is a duplication of article 020198 published in the same volume.

Distribution and heterogeneity of mast cells in female reproductive tract and ovary on different days of the oestrus cycle in Angora goats.

PubMed

Karaca, T; Arikan, S; Kalender, H; Yoruk, M

2008-08-01

The physiological distribution of mast cells (MCs) in the reproductive tract and ovary of 12 Angora goats was determined using light microscopic histochemical techniques. Uterus (corpus uteri and cornu uteri), uterine cervix, uterine tubes (isthmus and ampulla) and ovary samples were obtained by laparatomy from groups of animals during metoestrus, dioestrus and proestrus (days 5, 10 and 16 of the oestrous cycle). Tissues were fixed in Mota's fixative (basic lead acetate) for 48 h and embedded in paraffin. Six-micrometre-thick sections were stained with toluidine blue in 1% aqueous solution at pH 1.0 for 5 min and alcian blue-Safranin at pH 1.0 for 30 min. MCs were generally associated with blood vessels in all reproductive organs. In the uterus, they were concentrated mainly in the close of the uterine gland and deep stroma in the endometrium. Higher MC numbers were observed by toluidine blue staining in the uterus, uterine cervix and uterine tubes on days 10 (corpus uterine: 4.7 +/- 3.8 and cornu uterine: 4.9 +/- 3.5) and 16 (corpus uterine: 5.9 +/- 4.5 and cornu uterine: 5.4 +/- 2.4) of the oestrous cycle compared with day 5 (p < 0.05). Mast cells were not observed in the follicles, the corpus luteum and the underside of the surface epithelium of the ovarian cortex, but were observed in the interstitial cortical stroma and the ovarian medulla. In the ovary, MC numbers were significantly higher on day 16 of the oestrous cycle (cortex: 3.4 +/- 2.4 and medulla: 5.7 +/- 4.5, p < 0.05). Safranin-positive connective tissue MCs were not observed in the uterine tube on any occasion. These results indicate oestrous cycle-related changes in the number and location of MCs in goat reproductive organs.

Estimating the number of double-strand breaks formed during meiosis from partial observation.

PubMed

Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tsubouchi, Hideo

2012-12-01

Analyzing the basic mechanism of DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) formation during meiosis is important for understanding sexual reproduction and genetic diversity. The location and amount of meiotic DSBs can be examined by using a common molecular biological technique called Southern blotting, but only a subset of the total DSBs can be observed; only DSB fragments still carrying the region recognized by a Southern blot probe are detected. With the assumption that DSB formation follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, we propose two estimators of the total number of DSBs on a chromosome: (1) an estimator based on the Nelson-Aalen estimator, and (2) an estimator based on a record value process. Further, we compared their asymptotic accuracy.

Branching habit and the allocation of reproductive resources in conifers

PubMed Central

Leslie, Andrew B.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Correlated relationships between branch thickness, branch density, and twig and leaf size have been used extensively to study the evolution of plant canopy architecture, but fewer studies have explored the impact of these relationships on the allocation of reproductive resources. This study quantifies pollen cone production in conifers, which have similar basic reproductive biology but vary dramatically in branching habit, in order to test how differences in branch diameter influence pollen cone size and the density with which they are deployed in the canopy. Methods Measurements of canopy branch density, the number of cones per branch and cone size were used to estimate the amount of pollen cone tissues produced by 16 species in three major conifer clades. The number of pollen grains produced was also estimated using direct counts from individual pollen cones. Key Results The total amount of pollen cone tissues in the conifer canopy varied little among species and clades, although vegetative traits such as branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size varied over several orders of magnitude. However, branching habit controls the way these tissues are deployed: taxa with small branches produce small pollen cones at a high density, while taxa with large branches produce large cones relatively sparsely. Conclusions Conifers appear to invest similar amounts of energy in pollen production independent of branching habit. However, similar associations between branch thickness, branch density and pollen cone size are seen across conifers, including members of living and extinct groups not directly studied here. This suggests that reproductive features relating to pollen cone size are in large part a function of the evolution of vegetative morphology and branching habit. PMID:22782240

A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.

2015-03-01

Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.

The network level reproduction number for infectious diseases with both vertical and horizontal transmission.

PubMed

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

2013-05-01

A wide range of infectious diseases are both vertically and horizontally transmitted. Such diseases are spatially transmitted via multiple species in heterogeneous environments, typically described by complex meta-population models. The reproduction number, R0, is a critical metric predicting whether the disease can invade the meta-population system. This paper presents the reproduction number for a generic disease vertically and horizontally transmitted among multiple species in heterogeneous networks, where nodes are locations, and links reflect outgoing or incoming movement flows. The metapopulation model for vertically and horizontally transmitted diseases is gradually formulated from two species, two-node network models. We derived an explicit expression of R0, which is the spectral radius of a matrix reduced in size with respect to the original next generation matrix. The reproduction number is shown to be a function of vertical and horizontal transmission parameters, and the lower bound is the reproduction number for horizontal transmission. As an application, the reproduction number and its bounds for the Rift Valley fever zoonosis, where livestock, mosquitoes, and humans are the involved species are derived. By computing the reproduction number for different scenarios through numerical simulations, we found the reproduction number is affected by livestock movement rates only when parameters are heterogeneous across nodes. To summarize, our study contributes the reproduction number for vertically and horizontally transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. This explicit expression is easily adaptable to specific infectious diseases, affording insights into disease evolution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A differential equation model of HIV infection of CD4+ T-cells with cure rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xueyong; Song, Xinyu; Shi, Xiangyun

2008-06-01

A differential equation model of HIV infection of CD4+ T-cells with cure rate is studied. We prove that if the basic reproduction number R0<1, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population and the disease dies out; if R0>1, the HIV infection persists in the host. We find that the chronic disease steady state is globally asymptotically stable if R0>1. Furthermore, we also obtain the conditions for which the system exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

A reaction-diffusion malaria model with seasonality and incubation period.

PubMed

Bai, Zhenguo; Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-07-01

In this paper, we propose a time-periodic reaction-diffusion model which incorporates seasonality, spatial heterogeneity and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the parasite. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived, and it is shown that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive if [Formula: see text], while there is an endemic periodic solution and the disease is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulations indicate that prolonging the EIP may be helpful in the disease control, while spatial heterogeneity of the disease transmission coefficient may increase the disease burden.

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America.

PubMed

Shutt, Deborah P; Manore, Carrie A; Pankavich, Stephen; Porter, Aaron T; Del Valle, Sara Y

2017-12-01

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster

PubMed Central

Marangi, Luigi; Mirinaviciute, Grazina; Flem, Elmira; Scalia Tomba, Gianpaolo; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Manfredi, Piero

2017-01-01

We use age-structured models for VZV transmission and reactivation to reconstruct the natural history of VZV in Norway based on available pre-vaccination serological data, contact matrices, and herpes zoster incidence data. Depending on the hypotheses on contact and transmission patterns, the basic reproduction number of varicella in Norway ranges between 3.7 and 5.0, implying a vaccine coverage between 73 and 80% to effectively interrupt transmission with a 100% vaccine efficacy against infection. The varicella force of infection peaks during early childhood (3–5 yrs) and shows a prolonged phase of higher risk during the childbearing period, though quantitative variations can occur depending on contact patterns. By expressing the magnitude of exogenous boosting as a proportion of the force of infection, it is shown that reactivation is well described by a progressive immunity mechanism sustained by a large, though possibly below 100%, degree of exogenous boosting, in agreement with findings from other Nordic countries, implying large reproduction numbers of boosting. Moreover, magnitudes of exogenous boosting below 40% are robustly disconfirmed by data. These results bring further insight on the magnitude of immunity boosting and its relationship with reactivation. PMID:28545047

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

DOE PAGES

Shutt, Deborah P.; Manore, Carrie A.; Pankavich, Stephen; ...

2017-07-13

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate formore » Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.« less

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shutt, Deborah P.; Manore, Carrie A.; Pankavich, Stephen

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate formore » Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.« less

A Crucial New Direction for International Family Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hosken, Fran P.

1984-01-01

Repressive attitudes toward female sexuality by Third World men and ignorance of the basic biology of the female reproductive system by Third World women have led to the failure of family planning efforts. Use of the "Universal Childbirth Picture Book," which illustrates the female reproductive system, is recommended. (IS)

Identification, Characterization and Expression of Methuselah-Like Genes in Dastarcus helophoroides (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae).

PubMed

Zhang, Zhengqing; Wang, Huapeng; Hao, Chunfeng; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Miaomiao; Chang, Yong; Li, Menglou

2016-10-21

Dastarcus helophoroides , which has a relatively longer lifespan compared to other insects, is one of the most effective natural enemies of many large-body long-horned beetles. Methuselah (Mth) is associated with the lifespan, stress resistance, and reproduction in Drosophila melanogaster , but Mth is not present in non-drosophiline insects. A number of methuselah-like genes ( mth-likes , mthls ) have been identified in non-drosophiline insects, but it is still unknown whether they are present in Dastarcus helophoroides . We identified three novel mth-like genes in D. helophoroides : mth-like1 , mth-like2 , and mth-like5 , and carried out bioinformatic analysis based on the full-length nucleic acid sequences and deduced amino acid sequences. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) showed variations in expression patterns of mth-like genes in different tissues (highly expressed in reproductive systems) and at different developmental stages, indicating that mth-likes were likely be involved in reproduction and development. The altered mRNA expression in aging adults and under oxidation, high temperature, and starvation stress, indicated that mth-like genes were likely to be involved in aging and the resistance of oxidation, high temperature, and starvation. These results characterize, for the first time, the basic properties of three mth-like genes from D. helophoroides that probably play important roles in development, aging, reproduction, and stress resistance.

Technology, Biopolitics, Rationalities and Choices: Recent Studies of Reproduction.

PubMed

Whittaker, Andrea

2015-01-01

New synergies across anthropology, science and technology studies (STS), legal studies and sociology, bring fresh theoretical perspectives to the study of reproduction. Recent works on reproduction trace some of the changing rationalities: from the tactics of feminist self-help health movements in 1970s and 1980s in the US, to the commercialized experience of pregnancy and the various configurations, policies and legalities addressing globalized genetic and assisted reproductive technologies. Reproductive decision-making is deeply entangled with neoliberalism, welfare reforms, racial and geographic disparities, economic stratification and cultural rationalities to produce inequalities. Studies of reproduction remain central to basic anthropological questions: what it means to be human, what constitutes life, how we live our lives, and how societies value particular lives.

Mathematical analysis of an age-structured population model with space-limited recruitment.

PubMed

Kamioka, Katumi

2005-11-01

In this paper, we investigate structured population model of marine invertebrate whose life stage is composed of sessile adults and pelagic larvae, such as barnacles contained in a local habitat. First we formulate the basic model as an Cauchy problem on a Banach space to discuss the existence and uniqueness of non-negative solution. Next we define the basic reproduction number R0 to formulate the invasion condition under which the larvae can successfully settle down in the completely vacant habitat. Subsequently we examine existence and stability of steady states. We show that the trivial steady state is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < or = 1, whereas it is unstable if R0 > 1. Furthermore, we show that a positive (non-trivial) steady state uniquely exists if R0 > 1 and it is locally asymptotically stable as far as absolute value of R0 - 1 is small enough.

Modeling of the influence of humidity on H1N1 flu in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PEI, Y.; Tian, H.; Xu, B.

2015-12-01

In 2009, a heavy Flu hit the whole world. It was caused by the virus H1N1. The influenza first broke out in Mexico in March and the United States in April, 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the H1N1 influenza became pandemic, alert to a warning phase of six. By the end of 2011, 181302 H1N1 cases were reported in mainland China. To improve our understanding on the impact of environmental factors on the disease transmission, we constructed an SIR (Susceptible - Infectious - Recovered) model incorporating environmental factors. It was found that the absolute humidity was a dominant environmental factor. The study interpolated the humidity data monitored with 340 weather stations from 1951 to 2011 in mainland China. First, the break point of the trend for the absolutely humidity was detected by the BFAST (Break For Additive Season and Trend) method. Then, the SIR model with and without the absolutely humidity incorporated in the model was built and tested. Finally, the results with the two scenarios were compared. Results indicate that lower absolutely humidity may promote the transmission of the H1N1 cases. The calculated basic reproductive number ranges from 1.65 to 3.66 with a changing absolute humidity. This is consistent with the former study result with basic reproductive number ranging from 2.03 to 4.18. The average recovery duration was estimated to be 5.7 days. The average duration to get immunity from the influenza is 399.02 days. A risk map is also produced to illustrate the model results.

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Radojevic, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R; Leighton, Patrick A; Wu, Jianhong

2014-06-01

The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.

Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda.

PubMed

Barongo, Mike B; Ståhl, Karl; Bett, Bernard; Bishop, Richard P; Fèvre, Eric M; Aliro, Tony; Okoth, Edward; Masembe, Charles; Knobel, Darryn; Ssematimba, Amos

2015-01-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.

The basic reproduction number (R0) of measles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Guerra, Fiona M; Bolotin, Shelly; Lim, Gillian; Heffernan, Jane; Deeks, Shelley L; Li, Ye; Crowcroft, Natasha S

2017-12-01

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R 0 ), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. R 0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. As R 0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. For measles, R 0 is often cited to be 12-18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12-18 other people in a totally susceptible population. We did a systematic review to find studies reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of measles R 0 . Studies were included if they were a primary source of R 0 , addressed pre-existing immunity, and accounted for pre-existing immunity in their calculation of R 0 . A search of key databases was done in January, 2015, and repeated in November, 2016, and yielded 10 883 unique citations. After screening for relevancy and quality, 18 studies met inclusion criteria, providing 58 R 0 estimates. We calculated median measles R 0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R 0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12-18. Our results highlight the importance of countries calculating R 0 using locally derived data or, if this is not possible, using parameter estimates from similar settings. Additional data and agreed review methods are needed to strengthen the evidence base for measles elimination modelling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil.

PubMed

Massad, E; Burattini, M Nascimento; Khan, K; Struchiner, C J; Coutinho, F A B; Wilder-Smith, A

2017-08-01

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

What Can We Learn From Measles? No New HIV Infections.

PubMed

Smith, Davey M

2015-01-01

Reducing the incidence of HIV infection until there are no new infections depends on driving the number of secondary infections produced by a typical source infection in a completely susceptible population (basic reproduction number; R0) down to less than 1. Components of R0 that must be addressed are the number of sexual contacts the infectious person makes per unit of time (C), the probability of transmission per single sexual contact with the infectious person (P), and the duration that the infected person is infectious to others (D) (R0 = C × P × D). Numerous strategies may contribute to driving transmission of HIV infection down to zero, including early initiation of antiretroviral treatment and pre- or postexposure prophylaxis. This article summarizes a presentation by Davey M. Smith, MD, at the IAS-USA continuing education program held in San Francisco, California, in March 2015.

Testing the limits of freedom of contract: the commercialization of reproductive materials and services.

PubMed

Trebilcock, M; Martin, M; Lawson, A; Lewis, P

1994-01-01

This article examines the cases for and against commercializing, or "commodifying," reproductive materials and services. Using a supply/demand third-party framework, three basic scenarios in which commercial-exchange relationships may be possible--exchange of gametes and zygotes, exchange of gestational services, and exchange of fetal material--and the major parties of interest, or stakeholders, are identified. The study sketches the liberal, essentialist, and radical contingency theories that shape the debate over the commercialization of reproductive materials and services. The article then attempts to derive some basic governing principles that reflect as much common ground as possible amongst these various normative perspectives, while recognizing that complete reconciliation is impossible. Taken together, these principles are designed to reflect a strategy of "constrained commodification," where commercialization or commodification, that is, financial remuneration, plays a relatively neutral role in the utilization of reproductive materials and services. In light of these principles, the article concludes by sketching legal and regulatory regimes with respect to the exchange of gametes and zygotes, gestational services, and fetal tissue.

Heterogeneous population dynamics and scaling laws near epidemic outbreaks.

PubMed

Widder, Andreas; Kuehn, Christian

2016-10-01

In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical reformulation of the basic reproduction number, the homogeneous system and the heterogeneous system exhibit a completely analogous global behaviour. Then we consider noise terms to incorporate the fluctuation effects and the random import of the disease into the population and analyse the influence of heterogeneity on warning signs for critical transitions (or tipping points). This theory shows that one may be able to anticipate whether a bifurcation point is close before it happens. We use numerical simulations of a stochastic fast-slow heterogeneous population SIS model and show various aspects of heterogeneity have crucial influences on the scaling laws that are used as early-warning signs for the homogeneous system. Thus, although the basic structural qualitative dynamical properties are the same for both systems, the quantitative features for epidemic prediction are expected to change and care has to be taken to interpret potential warning signs for disease outbreaks correctly.

Reconstitution of mouse oogenesis in a dish from pluripotent stem cells.

PubMed

Hayashi, Katsuhiko; Hikabe, Orie; Obata, Yayoi; Hirao, Yuji

2017-09-01

This protocol is an extension to: Nat. Protoc. 8, 1513-1524 (2013); doi: 10.1038/nprot.2013.090; published online 11 July 2013Generation of functional oocytes in culture from pluripotent stem cells should provide a useful model system for improving our understanding of the basic mechanisms underlying oogenesis. In addition, it has potential applications as an alternative source of oocytes for reproduction. Using the most advanced mouse model in regard to reproductive engineering and stem cell biology, we previously developed a culture method that produces functional primorial germ cells starting from pluripotent cells in culture and described it in a previous protocol. This Protocol Extension describes an adaptation of this existing Protocol in which oogenesis also occurs in vitro, thus substantially modifying the technique. Oocytes generated from embryonic stem cells (ESCs) or induced pluripotent stem cells give rise to healthy pups. Here, we describe the protocol for oocyte generation in culture. The protocol is mainly composed of three different culture stages: in vitro differentiation (IVDi), in vitro growth (IVG), and in vitro maturation (IVM), which in total take ∼5 weeks. In each culture period, there are several checkpoints that enable the number of oocytes being produced in the culture to be monitored. The basic structure of the culture system should provide a useful tool for clarifying the complicated sequence of oogenesis in mammals.

Color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Fang-Hsuan; Yang, Chih-Yuan

2000-06-01

By the progress of computer, computer peripherals such as color monitor and printer are often used to generate color image. However, cross media color reproduction by human perception is usually different. Basically, the influence factors are device calibration and characterization, viewing condition, device gamut and human psychology. In this thesis, a color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping is proposed. It consists of four parts; device characterization, color management technique, color appearance model and gamut mapping.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-03-21

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner's Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual's death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-01-01

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner’s Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual’s death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. PMID:25637763

The Existence and Stability Analysis of the Equilibria in Dengue Disease Infection Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.; Soewono, E.

2015-06-01

In this paper we formulate an SIR (Susceptible - Infective - Recovered) model of Dengue fever transmission with constant recruitment. We found a threshold parameter K0, known as the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN). This model has two equilibria, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. By constructing suitable Lyapunov function, we show that the disease- free equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable whenever BRN is less than one and when it is greater than one, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable. Numerical result shows the dynamic of each compartment together with effect of multiple bio-agent intervention as a control to the dengue transmission.

Transmission dynamics of cholera: Mathematical modeling and control strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Gui-Quan; Xie, Jun-Hui; Huang, Sheng-He; Jin, Zhen; Li, Ming-Tao; Liu, Liqun

2017-04-01

Cholera, as an endemic disease around the world, has generated great threat to human society and caused enormous morbidity and mortality with weak surveillance system. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to describe the transmission of Cholera. Moreover, basic reproduction number and the global dynamics of the dynamical model are obtained. Then we apply our model to characterize the transmission process of Cholera in China. It was found that, in order to avoid its outbreak in China, it may be better to increase immunization coverage rate and make effort to improve environmental management especially for drinking water. Our results may provide some new insights for elimination of Cholera.

On the intrinsic dynamics of bacteria in waterborne infections.

PubMed

Yang, Chayu; Wang, Jin

2018-02-01

The intrinsic dynamics of bacteria often play an important role in the transmission and spread of waterborne infectious diseases. In this paper, we construct mathematical models for waterborne infections and analyze two types of nontrivial bacterial dynamics: logistic growth, and growth with Allee effects. For the model with logistic growth, we find that regular threshold dynamics take place, and the basic reproduction number can be used to characterize disease extinction and persistence. In contrast, the model with Allee effects exhibits much more complex dynamics, including the existence of multiple endemic equilibria and the presence of backward bifurcation and forward hysteresis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding resistant effect of mosquito on fumigation strategy in dengue control program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldila, D.; Situngkir, N.; Nareswari, K.

2018-01-01

A mathematical model of dengue disease transmission will be introduced in this talk with involving fumigation intervention into mosquito population. Worsening effect of uncontrolled fumigation in the form of resistance of mosquito to fumigation chemicals will also be included into the model to capture the reality in the field. Deterministic approach in a 9 dimensional of ordinary differential equation will be used. Analytical result about the existence and local stability of the equilibrium points followed with the basic reproduction number will be discussed. Some numerical result will be performed for some scenario to give a better interpretation for the analytical results.

R0 for vector-borne diseases: impact of the assumption for the duration of the extrinsic incubation period.

PubMed

Hartemink, Nienke; Cianci, Daniela; Reiter, Paul

2015-03-01

Mathematical modeling and notably the basic reproduction number R0 have become popular tools for the description of vector-borne disease dynamics. We compare two widely used methods to calculate the probability of a vector to survive the extrinsic incubation period. The two methods are based on different assumptions for the duration of the extrinsic incubation period; one method assumes a fixed period and the other method assumes a fixed daily rate of becoming infectious. We conclude that the outcomes differ substantially between the methods when the average life span of the vector is short compared to the extrinsic incubation period.

Early Outbreak of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico Prior to Identification of pH1N1 Virus

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Ying-Hen; Ma, Stefan; Velasco Hernandez, Jorge X.; Lee, Vernon J.; Lim, Wei Yen

2011-01-01

Background In the aftermath of the global spread of 2009 influenza A (pH1N1) virus, still very little is known of the early stages of the outbreak in Mexico during the early months of the year, before the virus was identified. Methodology/Main Findings We fit a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to the number of excess laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Mexico and Mexico City during the first 15 weeks in 2009 over the average influenza case number of the previous five baseline years of 2004-2008 during the same period to ascertain the turning point (or the peak incidence) of a wave of early influenza infections, and to estimate the transmissibility of the virus during these early months in terms of its basic reproduction number. The results indicate that there may have been an early epidemic in Mexico City as well as in all of Mexico during February/March. Based on excess influenza cases, the estimated basic reproduction number R0 for the early outbreak was 1.59 (0.55 to 2.62) for Mexico City during weeks 5–9, and 1.25 (0.76, 1.74) for all of Mexico during weeks 5–14. Conclusions We established the existence of an early epidemic in Mexico City and in all of Mexico during February/March utilizing the routine influenza surveillance data, although the location of seeding is unknown. Moreover, estimates of R0 as well as the time of peak incidence (the turning point) for Mexico City and all of Mexico indicate that the early epidemic in Mexico City in February/March had been more transmissible (larger R0) and peaked earlier than the rest of the country. Our conclusion lends support to the possibility that the virus could have already spread to other continents prior to the identification of the virus and the reporting of lab-confirmed pH1N1 cases in North America in April. PMID:21909366

Basic Drafting: Book One.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Ronald; And Others

The first of a two-book course in drafting, this manual consists of 13 topics in the following units: introduction to drafting, general safety, basic tools and lines, major equipment, applying for a job, media, lettering, reproduction, drawing sheet layout, architect's scale usage, civil engineer's scale usage, mechanical engineer's scale usage,…

Modelling memory colour region for preference colour reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Huanzhao; Luo, Ronnier

2010-01-01

Colour preference adjustment is an essential step for colour image enhancement and perceptual gamut mapping. In colour reproduction for pictorial images, properly shifting colours away from their colorimetric originals may produce more preferred colour reproduction result. Memory colours, as a portion of the colour regions for colour preference adjustment, are especially important for preference colour reproduction. Identifying memory colours or modelling the memory colour region is a basic step to study preferred memory colour enhancement. In this study, we first created gamut for each memory colour region represented as a convex hull, and then used the convex hull to guide mathematical modelling to formulate the colour region for colour enhancement.

Modelling Wolbachia infection in a sex-structured mosquito population carrying West Nile virus.

PubMed

Farkas, József Z; Gourley, Stephen A; Liu, Rongsong; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2017-09-01

Wolbachia is possibly the most studied reproductive parasite of arthropod species. It appears to be a promising candidate for biocontrol of some mosquito borne diseases. We begin by developing a sex-structured model for a Wolbachia infected mosquito population. Our model incorporates the key effects of Wolbachia infection including cytoplasmic incompatibility and male killing. We also allow the possibility of reduced reproductive output, incomplete maternal transmission, and different mortality rates for uninfected/infected male/female individuals. We study the existence and local stability of equilibria, including the biologically relevant and interesting boundary equilibria. For some biologically relevant parameter regimes there may be multiple coexistence steady states including, very importantly, a coexistence steady state in which Wolbachia infected individuals dominate. We also extend the model to incorporate West Nile virus (WNv) dynamics, using an SEI modelling approach. Recent evidence suggests that a particular strain of Wolbachia infection significantly reduces WNv replication in Aedes aegypti. We model this via increased time spent in the WNv-exposed compartment for Wolbachia infected female mosquitoes. A basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed for the WNv infection. Our results suggest that, if the mosquito population consists mainly of Wolbachia infected individuals, WNv eradication is likely if WNv replication in Wolbachia infected individuals is sufficiently reduced.

Transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe: A mathematical and GIS Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngarakana-Gwasira, E. T.; Bhunu, C. P.; Masocha, M.; Mashonjowa, E.

2016-06-01

Temperature and presence of water bodies are known to influence the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. In this work, effects of water bodies (taken in context of rainfall patterns) and temperature from 1950 to 2000 are considered in the model. With the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS), the reproduction number is mapped on the Zimbabwean country. Results of the mapping show high reproduction numbers along the Lowveld and the Zambezi valley catchment area. High reproduction numbers suggest high levels of schistosomiasis. This result suggests more control efforts should be targeted in these areas with high reproduction numbers.

A Mathematical Model with Quarantine States for the Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease in Human Populations.

PubMed

Ngwa, Gideon A; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I

2016-01-01

A deterministic ordinary differential equation model for the dynamics and spread of Ebola Virus Disease is derived and studied. The model contains quarantine and nonquarantine states and can be used to evaluate transmission both in treatment centres and in the community. Possible sources of exposure to infection, including cadavers of Ebola Virus victims, are included in the model derivation and analysis. Our model's results show that there exists a threshold parameter, R 0, with the property that when its value is above unity, an endemic equilibrium exists whose value and size are determined by the size of this threshold parameter, and when its value is less than unity, the infection does not spread into the community. The equilibrium state, when it exists, is locally and asymptotically stable with oscillatory returns to the equilibrium point. The basic reproduction number, R 0, is shown to be strongly dependent on the initial response of the emergency services to suspected cases of Ebola infection. When intervention measures such as quarantining are instituted fully at the beginning, the value of the reproduction number reduces and any further infections can only occur at the treatment centres. Effective control measures, to reduce R 0 to values below unity, are discussed.

A Mathematical Model with Quarantine States for the Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease in Human Populations

PubMed Central

Ngwa, Gideon A.

2016-01-01

A deterministic ordinary differential equation model for the dynamics and spread of Ebola Virus Disease is derived and studied. The model contains quarantine and nonquarantine states and can be used to evaluate transmission both in treatment centres and in the community. Possible sources of exposure to infection, including cadavers of Ebola Virus victims, are included in the model derivation and analysis. Our model's results show that there exists a threshold parameter, R 0, with the property that when its value is above unity, an endemic equilibrium exists whose value and size are determined by the size of this threshold parameter, and when its value is less than unity, the infection does not spread into the community. The equilibrium state, when it exists, is locally and asymptotically stable with oscillatory returns to the equilibrium point. The basic reproduction number, R 0, is shown to be strongly dependent on the initial response of the emergency services to suspected cases of Ebola infection. When intervention measures such as quarantining are instituted fully at the beginning, the value of the reproduction number reduces and any further infections can only occur at the treatment centres. Effective control measures, to reduce R 0 to values below unity, are discussed. PMID:27579053

Modeling Post-death Transmission of Ebola: Challenges for Inference and Opportunities for Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitz, Joshua S.; Dushoff, Jonathan

2015-03-01

Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one component of Ebola dynamics that is of ongoing concern - the transmission of Ebola from the dead to the living. We do so by applying the toolkit of mathematical epidemiology to analyze the consequences of post-death transmission. We show that underlying disease parameters cannot be inferred with confidence from early-stage incidence data (that is, they are not ``identifiable'') because different parameter combinations can produce virtually the same epidemic trajectory. Despite this identifiability problem, we find robustly that inferences that don't account for post-death transmission tend to underestimate the basic reproductive number - thus, given the observed rate of epidemic growth, larger amounts of post-death transmission imply larger reproductive numbers. From a control perspective, we explain how improvements in reducing post-death transmission of Ebola may reduce the overall epidemic spread and scope substantially. Increased attention to the proportion of post-death transmission has the potential to aid both in projecting the course of the epidemic and in evaluating a portfolio of control strategies.

Aspects of the distribution, population structure and reproduction of the gastropod Tibia delicatula (Nevill, 1881) inhabiting the oxygen minimum zone of the Oman and Pakistan continental margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Olabarria, Celia

2005-11-01

The present study describes some aspects of the distribution and biology of Tibia delicatula (Nevill), a gastropod belonging to the family Strombidae. This species has been found in large numbers in the upper oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the Oman margin, and has also been collected from the OMZ of the Pakistan margin. The highest abundance of adult specimens in the Oman OMZ was found between 300 and 450 m. Numbers dropped rapidly below 450 m, to zero below 500 m depth. Similarly dense populations were not observed in the Pakistan OMZ. Multiple regression with oxygen concentration and depth indicates that depth (and its related variables) is the main factor explaining the variation in abundance of T. delicatula. The populations from the Oman and Pakistan OMZs were dominated by juveniles. This suggests a unimodal size structure with evidence of a marked recruitment event. Basic reproductive aspects were analysed. All specimens had a penis and sperm groove. The gonad wall consisted of reticular tissue that might be used for nutrient storage or as an irrigation system. Only vitellogenic oocytes were present. The large oocyte sizes observed (200-300 μm) suggest a lecithotrophic larval development.

International spinal cord injury male sexual function and female sexual and reproductive function basic data sets-version 2.0.

PubMed

Alexander, Marcalee S; New, Peter W; Biering-Sørensen, Fin; Courtois, Frederique; Popolo, Giulio Del; Elliott, Stacy; Kiekens, Carlotte; Vogel, Lawrence; Previnaire, Jean G

2017-01-01

Data set review and modification. To describe modifications in the International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Male Sexual Function Basic Data Set Version 2.0 and the International SCI Female Sexual and Reproductive Function Basic Data Set Version 2.0. International expert work group using on line communication. An international team of experts was compiled to review and revise the International SCI Male Sexual Function and Female Sexual and Reproductive Function Basic Data Sets Version 1.0. The group adapted Version 1.0 based upon review of published research, suggestions from concerned individuals and on line work group consensus. The revised data sets were then posted on the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) websites for 2 months for review. Subsequently, the data sets were approved by the ISCoS Scientific and Executive Committees and ASIA board of directors. The data sets were modified to a self-report format. They were reviewed for appropriateness for the pediatric age group and adapted to include a new variable to address the issue of sexual orientation. A clarification of the difference between the data sets and the autonomic standards was also developed. Sexuality is a continuously evolving topic. Modifications were needed to address this topic in a comprehensive fashion. It is recommended that Version 2.0 of these data sets are used for ongoing documentation of sexual status in the medical record and for documentation of sexual concerns during on-going research.

Can Reproductive Hormones Modulate Host Immunity to Breast Cancer Antigens

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

AD Award Number: W81XWH-04-1-0668 TITLE: Can Reproductive Hormones Modulate Host Immunity to Breast Cancer Antigens PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Richard T...AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Can Reproductive Hormones Modulate Host Immunity to Breast Cancer Antigens 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-04-!1-0668 5c...neu-N mice can be readily applied to clinical trial development. The goal of the present work is to test the hypothesis that reproductive hormones can

Access to and use of sexual and reproductive health services provided by midwives among rural immigrant women in Spain: midwives’ perspectives

PubMed Central

Otero-Garcia, Laura; Goicolea, Isabel; Gea-Sánchez, Montserrat; Sanz-Barbero, Belen

2013-01-01

Background There is insufficient information regarding access and participation of immigrant women in Spain in sexual and reproductive health programs. Recent studies show their lower participation rate in gynecological cancer screening programs; however, little is known about the participation in other sexual and reproductive health programs by immigrant women living in rural areas with high population dispersion. Objectives The objective of this study is to explore the perceptions of midwives who provide these services regarding immigrant women's access and participation in sexual and reproductive health programs offered in a rural area. Design A qualitative study was performed, within a larger ethnographic study about rural primary care, with data collection based on in-depth interviews and field notes. Participants were the midwives in primary care serving 13 rural basic health zones (BHZ) of Segovia, a region of Spain with high population dispersion. An interview script was designed to collect information about midwives’ perceptions on immigrant women's access to and use of the healthcare services that they provide. Interviews were recorded and transcribed with participant informed consent. Data were analyzed based on the qualitative content analysis approach and triangulation of results with fieldwork notes. Results Midwives perceive that immigrants in general, and immigrant women in particular, underuse family planning services. This underutilization is associated with cultural differences and gender inequality. They also believe that the number of voluntary pregnancy interruptions among immigrant women is elevated and identify childbearing and childrearing-related tasks and the language barrier as obstacles to immigrant women accessing the available prenatal and postnatal healthcare services. Conclusions Immigrant women's underutilization of midwifery services may be linked to the greater number of unintended pregnancies, pregnancy terminations, and the delay in the first prenatal visit, as discerned by midwives. Future research should involve samples of immigrant women themselves, to provide a deeper understanding of the current knowledge, attitudes, and practices of the immigrant population regarding reproductive and sexual health to provide better health services. PMID:24206651

The Classroom Animal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Science and Children, 1986

1986-01-01

Provides background information on the earthworm. Reviews basic anatomical, behavioral, and reproductive facts. Offers suggestions for procuring, maintaining, and breeding colonies for classroom use. (ML)

Dynamics and optimal control of a non-linear epidemic model with relapse and cure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahrouz, A.; El Mahjour, H.; Settati, A.; Bernoussi, A.

2018-04-01

In this work, we introduce the basic reproduction number R0 for a general epidemic model with graded cure, relapse and nonlinear incidence rate in a non-constant population size. We established that the disease free-equilibrium state Ef is globally asymptotically exponentially stable if R0 < 1 and globally asymptotically stable if R0 = 1. If R0 > 1, we proved that the system model has at least one endemic state Ee. Then, by means of an appropriate Lyapunov function, we showed that Ee is unique and globally asymptotically stable under some acceptable biological conditions. On the other hand, we use two types of control to reduce the number of infectious individuals. The optimality system is formulated and solved numerically using a Gauss-Seidel-like implicit finite-difference method.

[Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps].

PubMed

Luo, C; Li, R Z; Xu, Q Q; Xiong, P; Liu, Y X; Xue, F Z; Xu, Q; Li, X J

2017-09-10

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. Methods: On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. Results: The basic reproduction number ( R (0)) for children in schools was 4.49 (95 %CI : 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95 %CI : 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014. Conclusions: Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.

Somatic embryogenesis in forestry: A practical approach to cloning the best trees

Treesearch

Alex M. Diner

1999-01-01

Trees as well as humans have two basic cell types based on genetic content: somatic cells and gametic or reproductive cells. Somatic cells, such as skin cells or the sapwood cells in a tree, have at least twice (2n) the base set of chromosomes. The reproductive cells (gametic cells) have a single (n) set of chromosomes.

The first success of glass eel production in the world: basic biology on fish reproduction advances new applied technology in aquaculture.

PubMed

Kagawa, Hirohiko; Tanaka, Hideki; Ohta, Hiromi; Unuma, Tatsuya; Nomura, Kazuharu

2005-04-01

The eel has long been esteemed as an important food fish in the world, especially in Japan, and has been used as an experimental fish for many fields of fish physiology. However, the decreases in eel resources have been a serious concern in recent years. The catches of glass eels as seedlings for aquaculture have shown a long-term decrease in both Europe and East Asia. To increase eel resources, the development of techniques for artificial induction of maturation and spawning and rearing their larvae have been eagerly desired. Recent progress of reproductive physiology of fish, especially mechanisms of oocyte maturation and ovulation in female and of spermatozoa maturation in male, facilitate to establish techniques for hormonal induction of maturation and spawning in sexually immature eels. With persistent effort to development of rearing techniques of larvae, we have first succeeded to produce glass eel. These applied techniques are may contribute to understand the basic reproductive physiology of the eel.

Reproductive rights approach to reproductive health in developing countries.

PubMed

Pillai, Vijayan K; Gupta, Rashmi

2011-01-01

Research on reproductive health in developing countries focuses mostly on the role of economic development on various components of reproductive health. Cross-sectional and empirical research studies in particular on the effects of non-economic factors such as reproductive rights remain few and far between. This study investigates the influence of two components of an empowerment strategy, gender equality, and reproductive rights on women's reproductive health in developing countries. The empowerment strategy for improving reproductive health is theoretically situated on a number of background factors such as economic and social development. Cross-national socioeconomic and demographic data from a number of international organizations on 142 developing countries are used to test a model of reproductive rights and reproductive health. The findings suggest that both economic and democratic development have significant positive effects on levels of gender equality. The level of social development plays a prominent role in promoting reproductive rights. It is found that reproductive rights channel the influences of social structural factors and gender equality on reproductive health.

Mathematical modeling of transmission co-infection tuberculosis in HIV community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusiana, V.; Putra, P. S.; Nuraini, N.; Soewono, E.

2017-03-01

TB and HIV infection have the effect of deeply on assault the immune system, since they can afford to weaken host immune respone through a mechanism that has not been fully understood. HIV co-infection is the stongest risk factor for progression of M. tuberculosis to active TB disease in HIV individuals, as well as TB has been accelerated to progression HIV infection. In this paper we create a model of transmission co-infection TB in HIV community, dynamic system with ten compartments built in here. Dynamic analysis in this paper mentioned ranging from disease free equilibrium conditions, endemic equilibrium conditions, basic reproduction ratio, stability analysis and numerical simulation. Basic reproductive ratio were obtained from spectral radius the next generation matrix of the model. Numerical simulations are built to justify the results of the analysis and to see the changes in the dynamics of the population in each compartment. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the parameters affecting the population dynamics of TB in people with HIV infection is parameters rate of progression of individuals from the exposed TB class to the active TB, treatment rate of exposed TB individuals, treatment rate of infectious (active TB) individuals and probability of transmission of TB infection from an infective to a susceptible per contact per unit time. We can conclude that growing number of infections carried by infectious TB in people with HIV infection can lead to increased spread of disease or increase in endemic conditions.

Stress and reproductive failure: past notions, present insights and future directions

PubMed Central

Sheps, Sam; Clara Arck, Petra

2008-01-01

Problem Maternal stress perception is frequently alleged as a cause of infertility, miscarriages, late pregnancy complications or impaired fetal development. The purpose of the present review is to critically assess the biological and epidemiological evidence that considers the plausibility of a stress link to human reproductive failure. Methods All epidemiological studies published between 1980 and 2007 that tested the link between stress exposure and impaired reproductive success in humans were identified. Study outcomes were evaluated on the basis of how associations were predicted, tested and integrated with theories of etiology arising from recent scientific developments in the basic sciences. Further, published evidence arising from basic science research has been assessed in order to provide a mechanistic concept and biological evidence for the link between stress perception and reproductive success. Results Biological evidence points to an immune–endocrine disequilibrium in response to stress and describes a hierarchy of biological mediators involved in a stress trigger to reproductive failure. Epidemiological evidence presents positive correlations between various pregnancy failure outcomes with pre-conception negative life events and elevated daily urinary cortisol. Strikingly, a relatively new conceptual approach integrating the two strands of evidence suggests the programming of stress susceptibility in mother and fetus via a so-called pregnancy stress syndrome. Conclusions An increasing specificity of knowledge is available about the types and impact of biological and social pathways involved in maternal stress responses. The present evidence is sufficient to warrant a reconsideration of conventional views on the etiology of reproductive failure. Physicians and patients will benefit from the adaptation of this integrated evidence to daily clinical practice. PMID:18274890

Color Reproduction System Based on Color Appearance Model and Gamut Mapping

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-07-01

and Gamut Mapping DISTRIBUTION: Approved for public release, distribution unlimited This paper is part of the following report: TITLE: Input/Output...report: ADP011333 thru ADP011362 UNCLASSIFIED Color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping Fang-Hsuan Cheng, Chih-Yuan...perception is usually different. Basically, the influence factors are device calibration and characterization, viewing condition, device gamut and human

Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data.

PubMed

Chowell, G; Diaz-Dueñas, P; Miller, J C; Alcazar-Velazco, A; Hyman, J M; Fenimore, P W; Castillo-Chavez, C

2007-08-01

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. A retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima located on the Mexican central Pacific coast is carried out. We estimate the reproduction number from spatial epidemic data at the level of municipalities using two different methods: (1) Using a standard dengue epidemic model and assuming pure exponential initial epidemic growth and (2) Fitting a more realistic epidemic model to the initial phase of the dengue epidemic curve. Using Method I, we estimate an overall mean reproduction number of 3.09 (95% CI: 2.34,3.84) as well as local reproduction numbers whose values range from 1.24 (1.15,1.33) to 4.22 (2.90,5.54). Using Method II, the overall mean reproduction number is estimated to be 2.0 (1.75,2.23) and local reproduction numbers ranging from 0.49 (0.0,1.0) to 3.30 (1.63,4.97). Method I systematically overestimates the reproduction number relative to the refined Method II, and hence it would overestimate the intensity of interventions required for containment. Moreover, optimal intervention with defined resources demands different levels of locally tailored mitigation. Local epidemic peaks occur between the 24th and 35th week of the year, and correlate positively with the final local epidemic sizes (rho=0.92, P-value<0.001). Moreover, final local epidemic sizes are found to be linearly related to the local population size (P-value<0.001). This observation supports a roughly constant number of female mosquitoes per person across urban and rural regions.

More is still not better: testing the perturbation model of temporal reference memory across different modalities and tasks.

PubMed

Ogden, Ruth S; Jones, Luke A

2009-05-01

The ability of the perturbation model (Jones & Wearden, 2003) to account for reference memory function in a visual temporal generalization task and auditory and visual reproduction tasks was examined. In all tasks the number of presentations of the standard was manipulated (1, 3, or 5), and its effect on performance was compared. In visual temporal generalization the number of presentations of the standard did not affect the number of times the standard was correctly identified, nor did it affect the overall temporal generalization gradient. In auditory reproduction there was no effect of the number of times the standard was presented on mean reproductions. In visual reproduction mean reproductions were shorter when the standard was only presented once; however, this effect was reduced when a visual cue was provided before the first presentation of the standard. Whilst the results of all experiments are best accounted for by the perturbation model there appears to be some attentional benefit to multiple presentations of the standard in visual reproduction.

Slow life histories in lizards living in the highlands of the Andes Mountains.

PubMed

Boretto, Jorgelina M; Cabezas-Cartes, Facundo; Ibargüengoytía, Nora R

2018-05-01

In the highlands of the Andes, lizards must balance precisely the allocation of energy for growth and reproduction to ensure their survival. We studied the individuals' age, growth rates, age at sexual maturity, and maximum life span of the viviparous lizard Phymaturus antofagastensis, endemic of cold and harsh environments at high altitudes in the Andes Mountains of Catamarca province, Argentina. We also estimated key life history parameters like reproductive effort, lifetime reproductive effort, net reproductive rate, and relative reproductive time in P. antofagastensis as well as in other Phymaturus to compare the interplay among growth, maintenance, and reproduction in species that live across a latitudinal and altitudinal gradient. We found that females and males of P. antofagastensis mature late in life, at 6-7 years old, respectively, and some individuals reached 20 years of age. Adult females showed higher specific growth rates than males and an adult life span of 9 years which, due to their biennial reproduction, results in an estimated production of only four litters in life. This species exhibits one of the highest lifetime reproductive efforts described for lizards. Our results indicate the existence of a tradeoff between the number of reproductive events throughout life and reproductive effort devoted to each event in Phymaturus, related to the phylogenetic group. The palluma group shows low reproductive effort but high number of reproductive events throughout their lives, whereas the patagonicus group shows high reproductive efforts in low number of reproductive events.

Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

PubMed

Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

2017-04-01

We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

A nonlocal spatial model for Lyme disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiao; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2016-07-01

This paper is devoted to the study of a nonlocal and time-delayed reaction-diffusion model for Lyme disease with a spatially heterogeneous structure. In the case of a bounded domain, we first prove the existence of the positive steady state and a threshold type result for the disease-free system, and then establish the global dynamics for the model system in terms of the basic reproduction number. In the case of an unbound domain, we obtain the existence of the disease spreading speed and its coincidence with the minimal wave speed. At last, we use numerical simulations to verify our analytic results and investigate the influence of model parameters and spatial heterogeneity on the disease infection risk.

Assessing the effect of extrinsic incubation period (EIP) prolongation in controlling dengue transmission with wolbachia-infected mosquito intervention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putri, Y. E.; Rozi, S.; Tasman, H.; Aldila, D.

2017-03-01

A mathematical model of dengue disease transmission with involving Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP) effect as a consequence of wolbachia introduction into mossquito population will be discussed in this article. Mathematical model analysis to find equilibrium points, basic reproductive ratio (ℛ0), and criteria of endemic occurrence which depend on some parameters were performed. From analytical result, we find that ℛ0 hold an important role to determine the existence and local stability of equilibrium points. From sensitivity analysis of ℛ0 and numerical simulation, we conclude that prolongation of EIP with wolbachia intervention succeed to reduce number of infected human and mosquito significantly.

Diverse realities: sexually transmitted infections and HIV in India.

PubMed

Hawkes, S; Santhya, K G

2002-04-01

There are many features that make India a vulnerable country as far as a sexually transmitted infection (STI)/HIV epidemic is concerned. These include the lack of a strong evidence base on which to formulate decision making, a pluralistic and often unregulated health sector, and a highly vulnerable population. Nonetheless, India has shown strong commitment to other areas of a comprehensive reproductive health care programme, and may be able to do so in the field of STI/HIV control. Vast numbers of people in India are severely disadvantaged in terms of income, education, power structures, and gender. Addressing these basic issues of human rights lies at the core of achieving better health outcomes.

Asymptotic behavior of a stochastic delayed HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmad, Bashir

2017-11-01

In this paper, a stochastic delayed HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence is proposed and investigated. First of all, we prove that there is a unique global positive solution as desired in any population dynamics. Then by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions, we show that if the basic reproduction number R0 ≤ 1, then the solution of the stochastic system oscillates around the infection-free equilibrium E0, while if R0 > 1, then the solution of the stochastic system fluctuates around the infective equilibrium E∗. Sufficient conditions of these results are established. Finally, we give some examples and a series of numerical simulations to illustrate the analytical results.

Modeling malware propagation using a carrier compartment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández Guillén, J. D.; Martín del Rey, A.

2018-03-01

The great majority of mathematical models proposed to simulate malware spreading are based on systems of ordinary differential equations. These are compartmental models where the devices are classified according to some types: susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, etc. As far as we know, there is not any model considering the special class of carrier devices. This type is constituted by the devices whose operative systems is not targeted by the malware (for example, iOS devices for Android malware). In this work a novel mathematical model considering this new compartment is considered. Its qualitative study is presented and a detailed analysis of the efficient control measures is shown by studying the basic reproductive number.

Global stability of an SIR model with differential infectivity on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xinpeng; Wang, Fang; Xue, Yakui; Liu, Maoxing

2018-06-01

In this paper, an SIR model with birth and death on complex networks is analyzed, where infected individuals are divided into m groups according to their infection and contact between human is treated as a scale-free social network. We obtain the basic reproduction number R0 as well as the effects of various immunization schemes. The results indicate that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable in some conditions, otherwise disease-free equilibrium is unstable and exists an unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulations and a promising way for infectious diseases control is suggested.

Constrained minimization problems for the reproduction number in meta-population models.

PubMed

Poghotanyan, Gayane; Feng, Zhilan; Glasser, John W; Hill, Andrew N

2018-02-14

The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) can be considerably higher in an SIR model with heterogeneous mixing compared to that from a corresponding model with homogeneous mixing. For example, in the case of measles, mumps and rubella in San Diego, CA, Glasser et al. (Lancet Infect Dis 16(5):599-605, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00004-9 ), reported an increase of 70% in [Formula: see text] when heterogeneity was accounted for. Meta-population models with simple heterogeneous mixing functions, e.g., proportionate mixing, have been employed to identify optimal vaccination strategies using an approach based on the gradient of the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), which consists of partial derivatives of [Formula: see text] with respect to the proportions immune [Formula: see text] in sub-groups i (Feng et al. in J Theor Biol 386:177-187, 2015.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.006 ; Math Biosci 287:93-104, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.09.013 ). These papers consider cases in which an optimal vaccination strategy exists. However, in general, the optimal solution identified using the gradient may not be feasible for some parameter values (i.e., vaccination coverages outside the unit interval). In this paper, we derive the analytic conditions under which the optimal solution is feasible. Explicit expressions for the optimal solutions in the case of [Formula: see text] sub-populations are obtained, and the bounds for optimal solutions are derived for [Formula: see text] sub-populations. This is done for general mixing functions and examples of proportionate and preferential mixing are presented. Of special significance is the result that for general mixing schemes, both [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are bounded below and above by their corresponding expressions when mixing is proportionate and isolated, respectively.

Imperfect Vaccine Aggravates the Long-Standing Dilemma of Voluntary Vaccination

PubMed Central

Wu, Bin; Fu, Feng; Wang, Long

2011-01-01

Achieving widespread population immunity by voluntary vaccination poses a major challenge for public health administration and practice. The situation is complicated even more by imperfect vaccines. How the vaccine efficacy affects individuals' vaccination behavior has yet to be fully answered. To address this issue, we combine a simple yet effective game theoretic model of vaccination behavior with an epidemiological process. Our analysis shows that, in a population of self-interested individuals, there exists an overshooting of vaccine uptake levels as the effectiveness of vaccination increases. Moreover, when the basic reproductive number, , exceeds a certain threshold, all individuals opt for vaccination for an intermediate region of vaccine efficacy. We further show that increasing effectiveness of vaccination always increases the number of effectively vaccinated individuals and therefore attenuates the epidemic strain. The results suggest that ‘number is traded for efficiency’: although increases in vaccination effectiveness lead to uptake drops due to free-riding effects, the impact of the epidemic can be better mitigated. PMID:21687680

Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication

PubMed Central

Mitjà, Oriol; Fitzpatrick, Christopher; Asiedu, Kingsley; Solomon, Anthony W.; Mabey, David C.W.; Funk, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R0]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R0 (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R0 (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R0. At high estimates of R0 with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication. PMID:27983500

Feline reproduction: problems and clinical challenges.

PubMed

Little, Susan

2011-07-01

Many veterinarians are closely involved with pedigree cat breeding and have become familiar with the unique characteristics of feline reproduction and breeding management. However, even veterinarians who do not have involvement with the pedigree cat fancy require a basic knowledge of the reproductive problems that are most likely to be encountered in working with non-breeding pet cats as well as stray and feral cats. This article reviews reproductive problems and challenges in both sexes - namely, ovarian remnant syndrome, mammary fibroadenomatous hyperplasia, congenital anomalies of the reproductive tract and pregnancy diagnosis in the queen, and cryptorchidism and low libido in the tom. Feline reproduction has not received the amount of investigation and attention that has been directed at canine reproduction. The result is that less data is available both for description of normal reproduction and for management of common problems. This article reviews most of the available evidence for the conditions discussed. Efforts should focus on making information more readily available to the practitioner and expanding the knowledge base in this important area of feline medicine. Copyright © 2011 ISFM and AAFP. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reproductive science as an essential component of conservation biology.

PubMed

Holt, William V; Brown, Janine L; Comizzoli, Pierre

2014-01-01

In this chapter we argue that reproductive science in its broadest sense has never been more important in terms of its value to conservation biology, which itself is a synthetic and multidisciplinary topic. Over recent years the place of reproductive science in wildlife conservation has developed massively across a wide and integrated range of cutting edge topics. We now have unprecedented insight into the way that environmental change affects basic reproductive functions such as ovulation, sperm production, pregnancy and embryo development through previously unsuspected influences such as epigenetic modulation of the genome. Environmental change in its broadest sense alters the quality of foodstuffs that all animals need for reproductive success, changes the synchrony between breeding seasons and reproductive events, perturbs gonadal and embryo development through the presence of pollutants in the environment and drives species to adapt their behaviour and phenotype. In this book we explore many aspects of reproductive science and present wide ranging and up to date accounts of the scientific and technological advances that are currently enabling reproductive science to support conservation biology.

Applying ultrasonographic evaluation of antral follicle count to improve reproductive management in heifers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ultrasonography is a powerful technology that can be used to improve reproductive management in heifers. By counting the number of antral follicles observed on an ultrasound screen the practitioner can gather additional information when reproductive tract scoring, because the number of antral folli...

Reproductive rights approach to reproductive health in developing countries

PubMed Central

Pillai, Vijayan K.; Gupta, Rashmi

2011-01-01

Background Research on reproductive health in developing countries focuses mostly on the role of economic development on various components of reproductive health. Cross-sectional and empirical research studies in particular on the effects of non-economic factors such as reproductive rights remain few and far between. Objective This study investigates the influence of two components of an empowerment strategy, gender equality, and reproductive rights on women's reproductive health in developing countries. The empowerment strategy for improving reproductive health is theoretically situated on a number of background factors such as economic and social development. Design Cross-national socioeconomic and demographic data from a number of international organizations on 142 developing countries are used to test a model of reproductive rights and reproductive health. Results The findings suggest that both economic and democratic development have significant positive effects on levels of gender equality. The level of social development plays a prominent role in promoting reproductive rights. It is found that reproductive rights channel the influences of social structural factors and gender equality on reproductive health. PMID:22184501

Ecological effects on arbovirus-mosquito cycles of transmission.

PubMed

Tabachnick, Walter J

2016-12-01

Mosquitoes transmit many viruses to a variety of hosts. Cycles of mosquito borne arbovirus transmission are the result of complex interactions between the mosquito, the arbovirus and the host that are influenced by genetic variations in a variety of traits in each that are all influenced by many environmental factors. R 0 , the basic reproduction number or mean number of individuals infected from a single infected individual, is a measure of mosquito borne arbovirus transmission. Understanding the causes for the distribution of R 0 in any transmission cycle is a daunting challenge due to the lack of information on the genetic and environmental variances that influence R 0 . Information about the major factors influencing R 0 for specific transmission cycles is essential to develop efficient and effective strategies to reduce transmission in different cycles and locations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis on the crime model using dynamical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad, Fazliza; Roslan, Ummu'Atiqah Mohd

2017-08-01

A research is carried out to analyze a dynamical model of the spread crime system. A Simplified 2-Dimensional Model is used in this research. The objectives of this research are to investigate the stability of the model of the spread crime, to summarize the stability by using a bifurcation analysis and to study the relationship of basic reproduction number, R0 with the parameter in the model. Our results for stability of equilibrium points shows that we have two types of stability, which are asymptotically stable and saddle node. While the result for bifurcation analysis shows that the number of criminally active and incarcerated increases as we increase the value of a parameter in the model. The result for the relationship of R0 with the parameter shows that as the parameter increases, R0 increase too, and the rate of crime increase too.

Estimating age-specific reproductive numbers-A comparison of methods.

PubMed

Moser, Carlee B; White, Laura F

2016-01-01

Large outbreaks, such as those caused by influenza, put a strain on resources necessary for their control. In particular, children have been shown to play a key role in influenza transmission during recent outbreaks, and targeted interventions, such as school closures, could positively impact the course of emerging epidemics. As an outbreak is unfolding, it is important to be able to estimate reproductive numbers that incorporate this heterogeneity and to use surveillance data that is routinely collected to more effectively target interventions and obtain an accurate understanding of transmission dynamics. There are a growing number of methods that estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers with limited data that build on methods assuming a homogenously mixing population. In this article, we introduce a new approach that is flexible and improves on many aspects of existing methods. We apply this method to influenza data from two outbreaks, the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in South Africa and Japan, to estimate age-group specific reproductive numbers and compare it to three other methods that also use existing data from social mixing surveys to quantify contact rates among different age groups. In this exercise, all estimates of the reproductive numbers for children exceeded the critical threshold of one and in most cases exceeded those of adults. We introduce a flexible new method to estimate reproductive numbers that describe heterogeneity in the population.

Assisted reproductive technology in Japan: a summary report of 1992-2014 by the Ethics Committee, Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

PubMed

Irahara, Minoru; Kuwahara, Akira; Iwasa, Takeshi; Ishikawa, Tomonori; Ishihara, Osamu; Kugu, Koji; Sawa, Rintaro; Banno, Kouji; Saito, Hidekazu

2017-04-01

The Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology implemented a registry report system for the clinical practice of assisted reproductive technology in 1986. The aggregated results from 1992 to 2014 are reported herein. The total number of registered treatments was 393 745 cycles, of which 66 550 were pregnancy cycles and 46 008 were cycles with a live birth. Compared to the number of registered treatments in 2008, when the cycle-based registry was newly introduced, there was a 2.07-fold increase in the total number of treatments and a 2.25-fold increase in the number of cycles with a live birth. As the average age of patients who receive assisted reproductive technology has become markedly higher year by year, the most common age of those patients who received assisted reproductive technology in 2014 was 40 years. The total numbers of both assisted reproductive technology treatments and assisted reproductive technology live births are likely to be higher in the future. In addition, the trend toward aging patients seems to be continuing into the future.

Basic Methods for the Study of Reproductive Ecology of Fish in Aquaria.

PubMed

Fukuda, Kazuya; Sunobe, Tomoki

2017-07-20

Captive-rearing observations are valuable for revealing aspects of fish behavior and ecology when continuous field investigations are impossible. Here, a series of basic techniques are described to enable observations of the reproductive behavior of a wild-caught gobiid fish, as a model, kept in an aquarium. The method focuses on three steps: collection, transport, and observations of reproductive ecology of a substrate spawner. Essential aspects of live fish collection and transport are (1) preventing injury to the fish, and (2) careful acclimation to the aquarium. Preventing harm through injuries such as scratches or a sudden change of water pressure is imperative when collecting live fish, as any physical damage is likely to negatively affect the survival and later behavior of the fish. Careful acclimation to aquaria decreases the incidence death and mitigates the shock of transport. Observations during captive rearing include (1) the identification of individual fish and (2) monitoring spawned eggs without negative effects to the fish or eggs, thereby enabling detailed investigation of the study species' reproductive ecology. The subcutaneous injection of a visible implant elastomer (VIE) tag is a precise method for the subsequent identification of individual fish, and it can be used with a wide size range of fish, with minimal influence on their survival and behavior. If the study species is a substrate spawner that deposits adhesive eggs, an artificial nest site constructed from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe with the addition of a removable waterproof sheet will facilitate counting and monitoring the eggs, lessening the investigator's influence on the nest-holding and egg-guarding behavior of the fish. Although this basic method entails techniques that are seldom mentioned in detail in research articles, they are fundamental for undertaking experiments that require the captive rearing of a wild fish.

The educational and professional status of clinical embryology and clinical embryologists in Europe.

PubMed

Kovačič, B; Plas, C; Woodward, B J; Verheyen, G; Prados, F J; Hreinsson, J; De los Santos, M J; Magli, M C; Lundin, K; Plancha, C E

2015-08-01

What is the recognition of clinical embryology and the current status of clinical embryologists in European countries, regarding educational levels, responsibilities and workload, and need for a formal education in assisted reproductive technology (ART)? It is striking that the profession of clinical embryology, almost 40 years after the introduction of IVF, is still not officially recognized in most European countries. Reproductive medicine has developed into a sophisticated multidisciplinary medical branch since the birth of Louise Brown 37 years ago. The European Board & College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (EBCOG) has recognized reproductive medicine as a subspeciality and has developed a subspeciality training for gynaecologists in collaboration with the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE). However, nothing similar exists for the field of clinical embryology or for clinical embryologists. A questionnaire about the situation in clinical embryology in the period of 2012-2013 in the respective European country was sent to ESHRE National representatives (basic scientists only) in December 2013. At this time, 28 European countries had at least one basic scientist in the ESHRE Committee of National Representatives. The survey consisted of 46 numeric, dichotomous (yes/no) or descriptive questions. Answers were obtained from 27 out of 28 countries and the data were tabulated. Data about the numbers of 'ESHRE Certified Embryologists' were taken from the ESHRE Steering Committee for Embryologist Certification. In 2012, more than 7000 laboratory staff from 1349 IVF clinics in 27 European countries performed over 700 000 fresh and frozen ART cycles. Despite this, clinical embryology is only recognized as an official profession in 3 out of 27 national health systems. In most countries clinical embryologists need to be registered under another profession, and have limited possibilities for organized education in clinical embryology. Mostly they are trained for practical work by senior colleagues. ESHRE embryologist certification so far constitutes the only internationally recognized qualification; however this cannot be considered a subspecialization. Data were obtained through different methods, by involving national embryologist societies and cycle registers, collecting information from centre to centre, and in some cases by individual assessment of the situation. For these reasons, the results should be interpreted with caution. This paper presents the current status of clinical embryology and clinical embryologists in Europe and is an important step towards implementation of clinical embryology as an officially recognized profession. None. No. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using computer algebra and SMT-solvers to analyze a mathematical model of cholera propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trujillo Arredondo, Mariana

2014-06-01

We analyze a mathematical model for the transmission of cholera. The model is already defined and involves variables such as the pathogen agent, which in this case is the bacterium Vibrio cholera, and the human population. The human population is divided into three classes: susceptible, infectious and removed. Using Computer Algebra, specifically Maple we obtain two equilibrium states: the disease free state and the endemic state. Using Maple it is possible to prove that the disease free state is locally asymptotically stable if and only if R0 < 1. Using Maple it is possible to prove that the endemic equilibrium state is locally stable when it exists, it is to say when R0 > 1. Using the package Red-Log of the Computer algebra system Reduce and the SMT-Solver Z3Py it is possible to obtain numerical conditions for the model. The formula for the basic reproductive number makes a synthesis with all epidemic parameters in the model. Also it is possible to make numerical simulations which are very illustrative about the epidemic patters that are expected to be observed in real situations. We claim that these kinds of software are very useful in the analysis of epidemic models given that the symbolic computation provides algebraic formulas for the basic reproductive number and such algebraic formulas are very useful to derive control measures. For other side, computer algebra software is a powerful tool to make the stability analysis for epidemic models given that the all steps in the stability analysis can be made automatically: finding the equilibrium points, computing the jacobian, computing the characteristic polynomial for the jacobian, and applying the Routh-Hurwitz theorem to the characteristic polynomial. Finally, using SMT-Solvers is possible to make automatically checks of satisfiability, validity and quantifiers elimination being these computations very useful to analyse complicated epidemic models.

The rate of metabolism as a factor determining longevity of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast.

PubMed

Molon, Mateusz; Szajwaj, Monika; Tchorzewski, Marek; Skoczowski, Andrzej; Niewiadomska, Ewa; Zadrag-Tecza, Renata

2016-02-01

Despite many controversies, the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae continues to be used as a model organism for the study of aging. Numerous theories and hypotheses have been created for several decades, yet basic mechanisms of aging have remained unclear. Therefore, the principal aim of this work is to propose a possible mechanism leading to increased longevity in yeast. In this paper, we suggest for the first time that there is a link between decreased metabolic activity, fertility and longevity expressed as time of life in yeast. Determination of reproductive potential and total lifespan with the use of fob1Δ and sfp1Δ mutants allows us to compare the "longevity" presented as the number of produced daughters with the longevity expressed as the time of life. The results of analyses presented in this paper suggest the need for a change in the definition of longevity of yeast by taking into consideration the time parameter. The mutants that have been described as "long-lived" in the literature, such as the fob1Δ mutant, have an increased reproductive potential but live no longer than their standard counterparts. On the other hand, the sfp1Δ mutant and the wild-type strain produce a similar number of daughter cells, but the former lives much longer. Our results demonstrate a correlation between the decreased efficiency of the translational apparatus and the longevity of the sfp1Δ mutant. We suggest that a possible factor regulating the lifespan is the rate of cell metabolism. To measure the basic metabolism of the yeast cells, we used the isothermal microcalorimetry method. In the case of sfp1Δ, the flow of energy, ATP concentration, polysome profile and translational fitness are significantly lower in comparison with the wild-type strain and the fob1Δ mutant.

Modeling the intracellular pathogen-immune interaction with cure rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, Balram; Dubey, Preeti; Dubey, Uma S.

2016-09-01

Many common and emergent infectious diseases like Influenza, SARS, Hepatitis, Ebola etc. are caused by viral pathogens. These infections can be controlled or prevented by understanding the dynamics of pathogen-immune interaction in vivo. In this paper, interaction of pathogens with uninfected and infected cells in presence or absence of immune response are considered in four different cases. In the first case, the model considers the saturated nonlinear infection rate and linear cure rate without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells and without immune response. The next model considers the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells while all other terms are same as in the first case. The third model incorporates innate immune response, humoral immune response and Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) mediated immune response with cure rate and without absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells. The last model is an extension of the third model in which the effect of absorption of pathogens into uninfected cells has been considered. Positivity and boundedness of solutions are established to ensure the well-posedness of the problem. It has been found that all the four models have two equilibria, namely, pathogen-free equilibrium point and pathogen-present equilibrium point. In each case, stability analysis of each equilibrium point is investigated. Pathogen-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when basic reproduction number is less or equal to unity. This implies that control or prevention of infection is independent of initial concentration of uninfected cells, infected cells, pathogens and immune responses in the body. The proposed models show that introduction of immune response and cure rate strongly affects the stability behavior of the system. Further, on computing basic reproduction number, it has been found to be minimum for the fourth model vis-a-vis other models. The analytical findings of each model have been exemplified by numerical simulations.

The reproductive health needs of refugees: emerging consensus attracts predictable controversy.

PubMed

Cohen, S A

1998-10-01

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are approximately 40 million refugees and other internally displaced people worldwide, with the overwhelming majority coming from and still living in developed countries. 80% of all refugees are estimated to be women and children. Many refugees spend months and even years in what are designed to be temporary settings where efforts are made to accommodate their basic needs such as food, clean water, shelter, security, and primary health care during emergency situations. Women refugees, however, have certain unique needs beyond what traditionally have been considered basic in relief programs. Many women in developing countries suffer considerable health risks during the best of times due to their poverty or low social status. When fleeing conflict or natural disaster, their health status is at even higher risk of being compromised by severe living conditions and the complete absence of reproductive health services. The recognition that women refugees often face serious and sometimes life-threatening reproductive health-related situations led to the development of a field manual on reproductive health for use at the local level. Planned for publication in late 1998 or early 1999, the guide will describe the goals of a minimum array of reproductive health services in the early phase of an emergency and provide direct guidance on care relating to sexual violence, STDs, family planning, adolescents' needs, and other reproductive health concerns such as female genital mutilation and treatment for septic and incomplete abortion. The manual has garnered worldwide attention and support, as well as scrutiny by abortion opponents in the US, in particular New Jersey Republican Representative Chris Smith.

A REEXAMINATION OF THE POLLEN-DONATION HYPOTHESIS IN AN EXPERIMENTAL POPULATION OF ASCLEPIAS EXALTATA.

PubMed

Broyles, Steven B; Wyatt, Robert

1995-02-01

The evolution of large floral displays in hermaphroditic flowering plants has been attributed to natural selection acting to enhance male, rather than female, reproductive success. Proponents of the "pollen-donation hypothesis" have assumed that maternal resources, rather than levels of effective pollination, limit fruit set. We investigated the pollen-donation hypothesis in an experimental population of poke milkweed, Asclepias exaltata, where effective pollination did not limit fruit set. Specifically, we examined the effects of flower number per plant, and flower number per umbel on male reproductive success (number of fruits sired) and female reproductive success (number of fruits matured). In 1990, a paternity analysis was performed on fruits collected from 53 plants whose inflorescences were not manipulated. Flower number per plant was significantly correlated with male success, but not with plant gender. Flower number per plant was also significantly correlated with female success, but umbel number and stem number per plant together explained more than half (58%) the variation in female success. The percentage of fruit set was not significantly correlated with flower number per plant. Plants with large floral displays did not disproportionately increase in male reproductive success, relative to female success, as predicted by the pollen-donation hypothesis. In 1991, the effect of flower number per umbel on male and female reproductive success was investigated. Flower number per umbel was manipulated on four umbels per plant by removing flowers to leave 6, 12, or 18 flowers in each umbel. Plants with the largest umbels effectively pollinated twice as many flowers on other plants, but produced only 1.35 times as many fruits as plants with 6 and 12 flowers per umbel. Relative maleness of plants with large umbels was nearly twice that of small and medium umbels. Although these observations are consistent with the pollen-donation hypothesis at the level of umbels, they are problematic, because much of the variation in flower number per umbel exists within, rather than among, plants in natural populations. Thus, plants consist of both reproductively male (large) and female (small) inflorescences, which act to increase total reproductive success. It is therefore inappropriate to explain the evolution of large floral displays in milkweeds solely in terms of potential male reproductive success. © 1995 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals

PubMed Central

Oidtman, Rachel J.; Huber, John H.; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Brady, Oliver J.; Johansson, Michael A.; Perkins, T. Alex

2017-01-01

Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r—R0 and the generation interval—to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change. PMID:28723920

Effect of humoral immunity on HIV-1 dynamics with virus-to-target and infected-to-target infections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elaiw, A. M.; Raezah, A. A.; Alofi, A. S.

2016-08-01

We consider an HIV-1 dynamics model by incorporating (i) two routes of infection via, respectively, binding of a virus to a receptor on the surface of a target cell to start genetic reactions (virus-to-target infection), and the direct transmission from infected cells to uninfected cells through the concept of virological synapse in vivo (infected-to-target infection); (ii) two types of distributed-time delays to describe the time between the virus or infected cell contacts an uninfected CD4+ T cell and the emission of new active viruses; (iii) humoral immune response, where the HIV-1 particles are attacked by the antibodies that are produced from the B lymphocytes. The existence and stability of all steady states are completely established by two bifurcation parameters, R 0 (the basic reproduction number) and R 1 (the viral reproduction number at the chronic-infection steady state without humoral immune response). By constructing Lyapunov functionals and using LaSalle's invariance principle, we have proven that, if R 0 ≤ 1 , then the infection-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, if R 1 ≤ 1 < R 0 , then the chronic-infection steady state without humoral immune response is globally asymptotically stable, and if R 1 > 1 , then the chronic-infection steady state with humoral immune response is globally asymptotically stable. We have performed numerical simulations to confirm our theoretical results.

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siraj, A. S.; Oidtman, R. J.; Huber, J. H.; Kraemer, M. U.; Brady, O. J.; Johansson, M. A.; Perkins, T. A.

2017-12-01

Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r—R0 and the generation interval—to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35 °C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change.

“When You’re a Baby You Don’t Have Puberty”: Understanding of Puberty and Human Reproduction in Late Childhood and Early Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hurwitz, Lisa B.; Lauricella, Alexis R.; Hightower, Brianna; Sroka, Iris; Woodruff, Teresa K.; Wartella, Ellen

2017-01-01

Basic knowledge of human reproduction can help youth prepare for puberty and make later classes focused on advanced reproductive health topics manageable. With the intention of potentially informing the creation of learning materials, we conducted a needs assessment among children ages 7 to 12 in our suburban Chicago community to ascertain their current understanding of, and beliefs and misconceptions about, human reproduction, and to determine their needs for additional reproductive health education. We held qualitative focus group interviews with local children. Participants primarily reported learning about these topics from their parents prior to receiving school-based education in fifth grade. Their level of understanding was relatively low. They had little knowledge of internal sexual organs, expressed a range of beliefs about conception ranging from inaccurate to accurate but incomplete, and voiced concerns about transitioning into adolescence. This suggests a need for additional resources that provide comprehensible descriptions of reproductive health processes and mitigate puberty-related concerns. PMID:28931963

Gender issues in reproductive health: a review.

PubMed

Adinma, Echendu D; Adinma, Brian-D J I

2011-01-01

Gender, for its impact on virtually every contemporary life issue, can rightly be regarded as a foremost component of reproductive health. Reproductive health basically emphasises on people and their rights to sexuality, reproduction, and family planning, and the information to actualize these right, which has been inextricably linked to development at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo, Egypt, in 1994. Women's sexual and reproductive rights became recognised as universal human right, violations of which occur in some reproductive health areas including gender concerns. Gender inequality and inequity encompass gender based violence as well as gender discrimination which cuts across the life cycle of the woman; attitudes, religious and cultural practices of various nations; and issues related to employment, economy, politics, and development. The redress of gender inequality is a collective responsibility of nations and supranational agencies. Nations should adopt a framework hinged on three pedestals--legal, institutional and policy, employing the three recommended approaches of equal treatment, positive action, and gender mainstreaming.

Global Health Care Justice, Delivery Doctors and Assisted Reproduction: Taking a Note From Catholic Social Teachings.

PubMed

Richie, Cristina

2015-12-01

This article will examine the Catholic concept of global justice within a health care framework as it relates to women's needs for delivery doctors in the developing world and women's demands for assisted reproduction in the developed world. I will first discuss justice as a theory, situating it within Catholic social teachings. The Catholic perspective on global justice in health care demands that everyone have access to basic needs before elective treatments are offered to the wealthy. After exploring specific discrepancies in global health care justice, I will point to the need for delivery doctors in the developing world to provide basic assistance to women who hazard many pregnancies as a priority before offering assisted reproduction to women in the developed world. The wide disparities between maternal health in the developing world and elective fertility treatments in the developed world are clearly unjust within Catholic social teachings. I conclude this article by offering policy suggestions for moving closer to health care justice via doctor distribution. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Boni, Maciej F; Manh, Bui Huu; Thai, Pham Quang; Farrar, Jeremy; Hien, Tran Tinh; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Horby, Peter

2009-01-01

Background A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. Methods We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. Results In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). Conclusion It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes. PMID:19728864

POMC Neurons: From Birth to Death

PubMed Central

Toda, Chitoku; Santoro, Anna; Kim, Jung Dae

2017-01-01

The hypothalamus is an evolutionarily conserved brain structure that regulates an organism’s basic functions, such as homeostasis and reproduction. Several hypothalamic nuclei and neuronal circuits have been the focus of many studies to understand their role in regulating these basic functions. Within the hypothalamic neuronal populations, the arcuate melanocortin system plays a major role in controlling homeostatic functions. The arcuate pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC) neurons in particular have been shown to be critical regulators of metabolism and reproduction because of their projections to several brain areas both in and outside of the hypothalamus, such as autonomic regions of the brain stem and spinal cord. Here, we review and discuss the current understanding of POMC neurons from their development and intracellular regulators to their physiological functions and pathological dysregulation. PMID:28192062

Global dynamics of zooplankton and harmful algae in flowing habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Wang, Feng-Bin; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

This paper is devoted to the study of two advection-dispersion-reaction models arising from the dynamics of harmful algae and zooplankton in flowing-water habitats where a main channel is coupled to a hydraulic storage zone, representing an ensemble of fringing coves on the shoreline. For the system modeling the dynamics of algae and their toxin that contains little limiting nutrient, we establish a threshold type result on the global attractivity in terms of the basic reproduction ratio for algae. For the model with zooplankton that eat the algae and are inhibited by the toxin produced by algae, we show that there exists a coexistence steady state and the zooplankton is uniformly persistent provided that two basic reproduction ratios for algae and zooplankton are greater than unity.

East Europe Report, Political, Sociological and Military Affairs

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-20

growth and net reproduction figures. 1 3 What seems significant here is the constant drop in the birth rate for 30 years, interrupted temporarily and...for 15 years, the mortality rate then rose steadily again and reached its highest point since the end of the war in 1983 (1946: 15.0). The reproduction ...Population Growth Net Reproduction Numbers Percent Numbers Percent Numbers Percent in Percent 1948 191,907 21.0 105,708 11.6 86,127 9.4 * 1952

Socioeconomic status, education, and reproduction in modern women: an evolutionary perspective.

PubMed

Huber, Susanne; Bookstein, Fred L; Fieder, Martin

2010-01-01

Although associations between status or resources and reproduction are positive in premodern societies and also in men in modern societies, in modern women the associations are typically negative. We investigated how the association between socioeconomic status and reproductive output varies with the source of status and resources, the woman's education, and her age at reproductive onset (proxied by age at marriage). By using a large sample of US women, we examined the association between a woman's reproductive output and her own and her husband's income and education. Education, income, and age at marriage are negatively associated with a woman's number of children and increase her chances of childlessness. Among the most highly educated two-thirds of the sample of women, husband's income predicts the number of children. The association between a woman's number of children and her husband's income turns from positive to negative when her education and age at marriage is low (even though her mean offspring number rises at the same time). The association between a woman's own income and her number of children is negative, regardless of education. Rather than maximizing the offspring number, these modern women seem to adjust investment in children based on their family size and resource availability. Striving for resources seems to be part of a modern female reproductive strategy--but, owing to costs of resource acquisition, especially higher education, it may lead to lower birthrates: a possible evolutionary explanation of the demographic transition, and a complement to the human capital theory of net reproductive output. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Introduction to Animal Reproduction. Instructor Guide [and] Student Reference. Volume 28, Number 5 [and] Volume 28, Number 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peiter, Andrea; And Others

This instructor guide and the corresponding student reference contain seven lessons about animal reproduction for inclusion in Vocational Instructional Management System (VIMS) agricultural education courses. The lessons cover the following topics: the male and female reproductive systems, puberty and the estrous cycle, conception and gestation,…

Resource allocation and post-reproductive degeneration in the freshwater cnidarian Hydra oligactis (Pallas, 1766).

PubMed

Tökölyi, Jácint; Ősz, Zsófia; Sebestyén, Flóra; Barta, Zoltán

2017-02-01

Freshwater hydra are among the few animal groups that show negligible senescence and can maintain high survival and reproduction rates when kept under stable conditions in the laboratory. Yet, one species of Hydra (H. oligactis) undergoes a senescence-like process in which polyps degenerate and die after sexual reproduction. The ultimate factors responsible for this phenomenon are unclear. High mortality in reproducing animals could be the consequence of increased allocation of resources to reproduction at the expense of somatic maintenance. This hypothesis predicts that patterns of reproduction and survival are influenced by resource availability. To test this prediction we investigated survival and reproduction at different levels of food availability in 10 lineages of H. oligactis derived from a single Hungarian population. Sexual reproduction was accompanied by reduced survival, but a substantial proportion of animals regenerated after sexual reproduction and continued reproducing asexually. Polyps belonging to different lineages showed differences in their propensity to initiate sexual reproduction, gonad number and survival rate. Food availability significantly affected fecundity (number of eggs or testes produced), with the largest number of gonads being produced by animals kept on a high food regime. On the other hand, survival rate was not affected by the amount of food. These results show that survival is conserved at the expense of reproduction in this population when food is low. It remains a question still to be answered why survival is prioritized over reproduction in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

2017-03-01

The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

Volterra-type Lyapunov functions for fractional-order epidemic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-De-León, Cruz

2015-07-01

In this paper we prove an elementary lemma which estimates fractional derivatives of Volterra-type Lyapunov functions in the sense Caputo when α ∈ (0, 1) . Moreover, by using this result, we study the uniform asymptotic stability of some Caputo-type epidemic systems with a pair of fractional-order differential equations. These epidemic systems are the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS), Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) models and Ross-Macdonald model for vector-borne diseases. We show that the unique endemic equilibrium is uniformly asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number is greater than one. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical simulations using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton scheme implemented in the fde12 Matlab function.

A Reaction-Diffusion Model of Vector-Borne Disease with Periodic Delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-06-01

A vector-borne disease is caused by a range of pathogens and transmitted to hosts through vectors. To investigate the multiple effects of the spatial heterogeneity, the temperature sensitivity of extrinsic incubation period and intrinsic incubation period, and the seasonality on disease transmission, we propose a nonlocal reaction-diffusion model of vector-borne disease with periodic delays. We introduce the basic reproduction number R_0 for this model and then establish a threshold-type result on its global dynamics in terms of R_0 . In the case where all the coefficients are constants, we also prove the global attractivity of the positive constant steady state when R_0>1 . Numerically, we study the malaria transmission in Maputo Province, Mozambique.

Understanding Infertility - The Basics

MedlinePlus Videos and Cool Tools

... Research SART's FAQs about In Vitro Fertilization REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH TOPICS Topics Index NEWS AND PUBLICATIONS Publications Overview ... Insurance Laws Protect Your Fertility Campaign Find a Health Professional ABOUT ASRM Vision of ASRM ASRM's Mission ...

The concentration of plasma metabolites varies throughout reproduction and affects offspring number in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta).

PubMed

Gauthey, Zoé; Freychet, Marine; Manicki, Aurélie; Herman, Alexandre; Lepais, Olivier; Panserat, Stéphane; Elosegi, Arturo; Tentelier, Cédric; Labonne, Jacques

2015-06-01

In wild populations, measuring energy invested in the reproduction and disentangling investment in gametes versus investment in reproductive behavior (such as intrasexual competition or intersexual preference) remain challenging. In this study, we investigated the energy expenditure in brown trout reproductive behavior by using two proxies: variation in weight and variation of plasma metabolites involved in energy production, over the course of reproductive season in a semi natural experimental river. We estimated overall reproductive success using genetic assignment at the end of the reproductive season. Results show that triglycerides and free fatty acid concentrations vary negatively during reproduction, while amino-acids and glucose concentrations remain stable. Decrease in triglyceride and free fatty acid concentrations during reproduction is not related to initial concentration levels or to weight variation. Both metabolite concentration variations and weight variations are correlated to the number of offspring produced, which could indicate that gametic and behavioral reproductive investments substantially contribute to reproductive success in wild brown trout. This study opens a path to further investigate variations in reproductive investment in wild populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of Nest Box Color and Release Sites on Osmia lignaria (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) Reproductive Success in a Commercial Almond Orchard.

PubMed

Artz, Derek R; Allan, Matthew J; Wardell, Gordon I; Pitts-Singer, Theresa L

2014-12-01

Intensively managed, commercial orchards offer resources for managed solitary bees within agricultural landscapes and provide a means to study bee dispersal patterns, spatial movement, nest establishment, and reproduction. In 2012, we studied the impact of 1) the color of nest boxes covaried with four nest box density treatments and 2) the number of bee release sites covaried with two nest box density treatments on the reproductive success of Osmia lignaria Say in a California almond orchard pollinated by a mixture of O. lignaria and Apis mellifera L. Nest box color influenced the number of nests, total cells, and cells with male and female brood. More nests and cells were produced in light blue nest boxes than in orange or yellow nest boxes. The covariate nest box density also had a significant effect on brood production. The number of release sites did not affect O. lignaria nesting and reproduction, but the number of cavities in nest boxes influenced reproduction. Overall, the color of nest boxes and their distribution, but not the number of release sites, can greatly affect O. lignaria nest establishment and reproductive success in a commercial almond orchard. The ability to locate nesting sites in a homogenous, large orchard landscape may also be facilitated by the higher frequency of nest boxes with low numbers of cavities, and by the ability to detect certain nest box colors that best contrast with the blooming trees. © 2014 Entomological Society of America.

The Relation Between Reproductive Value and Genetic Contribution

PubMed Central

Barton, Nicholas H.; Etheridge, Alison M.

2011-01-01

What determines the genetic contribution that an individual makes to future generations? With biparental reproduction, each individual leaves a “pedigree” of descendants, determined by the biparental relationships in the population. The pedigree of an individual constrains the lines of descent of each of its genes. An individual’s reproductive value is the expected number of copies of each of its genes that is passed on to distant generations conditional on its pedigree. For the simplest model of biparental reproduction (analogous to the Wright–Fisher model), an individual’s reproductive value is determined within ∼10 generations, independent of population size. Partial selfing and subdivision do not greatly slow this convergence. Our central result is that the probability that a gene will survive is proportional to the reproductive value of the individual that carries it and that, conditional on survival, after a few tens of generations, the distribution of the number of surviving copies is the same for all individuals, whatever their reproductive value. These results can be generalized to the joint distribution of surviving blocks of the ancestral genome. Selection on unlinked loci in the genetic background may greatly increase the variance in reproductive value, but the above results nevertheless still hold. The almost linear relationship between survival probability and reproductive value also holds for weakly favored alleles. Thus, the influence of the complex pedigree of descendants on an individual’s genetic contribution to the population can be summarized through a single number: its reproductive value. PMID:21624999

The Worm Propagation Model with Dual Dynamic Quarantine Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yu; Xie, Xiao-Wu; Guo, Hao; Gao, Fu-Xiang; Yu, Ge

Internet worms are becoming more and more harmful with the rapid development of the Internet. Due to the extremely fast spread and great destructive power of network worms, strong dynamic quarantine strategies are necessary. Inspired by the real-world approach to the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, this paper proposes a quarantine strategy based on dynamic worm propagation model: the SIQRV dual quarantine model. This strategy uses dynamic quarantine method to make the vulnerable host and infected host quarantined, and then release them after a certain period of time, regardless of whether quarantined host security is checked. Through mathematic modeling, it has been found that when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than a critical value, the system will stabilize in the disease-free equilibrium, that is, in theory, the infected hosts will be completely immune. Finally, by comparing the simulation results and numerical analysis, the basic agreement between the two curves supports the validity of the mathematical model. Our future work will be focusing on taking both the delay and double-quarantine strategy into account and further expanding the scale of our simulation work.

Paying for reproductive health services in Bangladesh: intersections between cost, quality and culture.

PubMed

Schuler, Sidney Ruth; Bates, Lisa M; Islam, Md Khairul

2002-09-01

In 1997 a consortium of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Bangladesh began to implement health sector reform measures intended to expand access to and improve the quality of family planning and other basic health services. The new service delivery model entails higher costs for clients and requires that they take greater initiative. Clients have to travel further to get certain services, and they have to pay more for them than they did under the previous door-to-door family planning model. This paper is based on findings from a qualitative study looking at client and community reactions to the programme changes. It examines a number of barriers to access and constraints to cost recovery, including gender, class and ideas about entitlements, the role of government and obligations among people. The NGOs want to maximize cost recovery while making the basic services they offer accessible to most people. The findings suggest that this requires more than the establishment of an appropriate pricing structure. Attitudes related to charging and paying for services must also change, along with the institutional policies and practices that support them.

Intelligence and Fitness: The Mediating Role of Educational Level.

PubMed

Međedović, Janko

2017-01-01

The evolutionary status of intelligence is not clear: It is positively related to various indicators of fitness but negatively to reproductive success as the most important fitness marker. In the present research, we explored the links between intelligence and three fitness indicators: number of children (short-term reproductive success), number of grandchildren (long-term reproductive success), and age at first birth. Participants were individuals in a postreproductive stage ( N = 191; mean age = 66.5 years). Intelligence had a positive correlation with short-term reproductive success and age at first birth but a negative correlation with long-term reproductive success. Participants' education turned out to be a significant mediator of the link between intelligence and criterion measures. The results showed that intelligence can elevate short-term reproductive success. Furthermore, individuals with higher intellectual abilities tended to delay reproduction, which negatively affected their long-term reproductive success. Education was revealed as a very important resource which affects the link between cognitive abilities and fitness, thus proving its evolutionary role in contemporary populations.

Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

2011-12-01

Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

Timing reproduction in teleost fish: cues and mechanisms

PubMed Central

Juntti, Scott A; Fernald, Russell D

2016-01-01

Fish comprise half of extant vertebrate species and use a rich variety of reproductive strategies that have yielded insights into the basic mechanisms that evolved for sex. To maximize the chances of fertilization and survival of offspring, fish species time reproduction to occur at optimal times. For years, ethologists have performed painstaking experiments to identify sensory inputs and behavioral outputs of the brain during mating. Here we review known mechanisms that generate sexual behavior, focusing on the factors that govern the timing of these displays. The development of new technologies, including high-throughput sequencing and genome engineering, have the potential to provide novel insights into how the vertebrate brain consummates mating at the appropriate time. PMID:26952366

Reproductive bionomics and life history traits of three gammaridean amphipods, Cymadusa filosa Savigny, Ampithoe laxipodus Appadoo and Myers and Mallacoota schellenbergi Ledoyer from the tropical Indian Ocean (Mauritius)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appadoo, Chandani; Myers, Alan A.

2004-12-01

The reproductive bionomics and life history traits of two corophiid amphipods ( Ampithoe laxipodus, Cymadusa filosa) and one melitid ( Mallacoota schellenbergi) were studied in Mauritius (Indian Ocean) for the period March 1999 to February 2000. Results on the population structure, monthly size class variations, sex ratio, female reproductive states and fecundity are presented. The study demonstrates multivoltinism and continuous reproduction in the three species. Increase in number of juveniles was observed in warmer months for C. filosa and A. laxipodus. Sexual maturity was attained at smaller sizes in warmer months in the three species. Linear relationship on body length and number of eggs in brood pouch are presented. Size-independent analysis of egg number revealed a decrease in number of eggs in cooler months. Sex ratio is male skewed in M. schellenbergi and female skewed in C. filosa and A. laxipodus. Some of the plausible explanations for the reproductive strategies adopted by these three species in a tropical system are discussed.

Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

PubMed Central

Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

2016-01-01

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The generalized-growth concept also provides us a compelling argument for the unexpected extinction of certain emerging disease outbreaks during the early ascending phase. Overall, our approach promotes a more reliable and data-driven characterization of the early epidemic phase, which is important for accurate estimation of the reproduction number and prediction of disease impact. PMID:27707909

Asexual Reproduction in Holothurians

PubMed Central

Dolmatov, Igor Yu.

2014-01-01

Aspects of asexual reproduction in holothurians are discussed. Holothurians are significant as fishery and aquaculture items and have high commercial value. The last review on holothurian asexual reproduction was published 18 years ago and included only 8 species. An analysis of the available literature shows that asexual reproduction has now been confirmed in 16 holothurian species. Five additional species are also most likely capable of fission. The recent discovery of new fissiparous holothurian species indicates that this reproduction mode is more widespread in Holothuroidea than previously believed. New data about the history of the discovery of asexual reproduction in holothurians, features of fission, and regeneration of anterior and posterior fragments are described here. Asexual reproduction is obviously controlled by the integrated systems of the organism, primarily the nervous system. Special molecular mechanisms appear to determine the location where fission occurs along the anterior-posterior axis of the body. Alteration of the connective tissue strength of the body wall may play an important role during fission of holothurians. The basic mechanism of fission is the interaction of matrix metalloproteinases, their inhibitors, and enzymes forming cross-link complexes between fibrils of collagen. The population dynamics of fissiparous holothurians are discussed. PMID:25405228

Obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease risk: an uptodate in the management of polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Orio, Francesco; Muscogiuri, Giovanna; Nese, Cinar; Palomba, Stefano; Savastano, Silvia; Tafuri, Domenico; Colarieti, Giorgio; La Sala, Giovanbattista; Colao, Annamaria; Yildiz, Bulent O

2016-12-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder in reproductive aged women and is characterized by two of the following three features: oligoovulation or anovulation, clinical and/or biochemical signs of hyperandrogenism, or polycystic ovaries. It has been demonstrated that PCOS includes a complex number of systemic symptoms in addition to symptoms related to the reproductive apparatus. It has been associated with obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Several clinical and basic studies have investigated the link between PCOS and the cardiovascular disease risk, which seems to be due to blunted lipid/glucose metabolism, hypertension, and systemic inflammatory and coagulation disorders. Therefore, the current manuscript aims to review the main findings on PCOS and obesity/obesity-related disease (glucose derangements and cardiovascular disease risk factors). Although there are no long-term data on the morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular disease in PCOS, it is advisable to perform a careful metabolic and cardiovascular assessment in women with PCOS in order to tailor the most suitable strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basic Mycology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodwin, Lilla M.

1970-01-01

Discusses activities that can be carried out on a field trip study of mushrooms; follow-up activities in the classroom are suggested. Mushrooms are selected as an introduction to mycology mainly because of their large size and prominent reproductive structures. (BR)

Demographic analysis of arrhenotokous parthenogenesis and bisexual reproduction of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae).

PubMed

Ding, Tianbo; Chi, Hsin; Gökçe, Ayhan; Gao, Yulin; Zhang, Bin

2018-02-20

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) is a serious pest that is capable of bisexual and arrhenotokous reproduction. In arrhenotokous reproduction, virgin females initially produce male offspring; later, when their sons are sexually mature, the mothers begin bisexual reproduction by carrying out oedipal mating with their sons. Because a virgin female produces many male offspring before oedipal mating occurs, multiple oedipal mating is common. In this study, we investigated the effect of multiple oedipal mating on the population growth of F. occidentalis by using the age-stage, two-sex life table theory. In the arrhenotokous cohorts, all unfertilized eggs developed into males. In the bisexual cohorts, the offspring sex ratio was significantly female biased with the mean number of female offspring and male offspring being 72.68 and 29.00, respectively. These were the same as the net reproductive rate of female offspring and male offspring. In arrhenotokous cohorts, the number of males available for oedipal mating significantly affected the production of female offspring. The number of female offspring increased as the number of sons available for oedipal mating increased. Correctly characterizing this unique type of reproduction will provide important information for predicting the timing of future outbreaks of F. occidentalis, as well as aiding in formulating successful management strategies against the species.

Preparing images for publication: part 1.

PubMed

Devigus, Alessandro; Paul, Stefan

2006-04-01

Images play a vital role in the publication and presentation of clinical and scientific work. Within clinical photography, color reproduction has always been a contentious issue. With the development of new technologies, the variables affecting color reproduction have changed, and photographers have moved away from film-based to digital photographic imaging systems. To develop an understanding of color, knowledge about the basic principles of light and vision is important. An object's color is determined by which wavelengths of light it reflects. Colors of light and colors of pigment behave differently. Due to technical limitations, monitors and printers are unable to reproduce all the colors we can see with our eyes, also called the LAB color space. In order to optimize the output of digital clinical images, color management solutions need to be integrated in the photographic workflow; however, their use is still limited in the medical field. As described in part 2 of this article, calibrating your computer monitor and using an 18% gray background card are easy ways to enable more consistent color reproduction for publication. In addition, some basic information about the various camera settings is given to facilitate the use of this new digital equipment in daily practice.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Optimal control problem in correlation between smoking and epidemic of respiratory diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldila, D.; Apri, M.

2014-02-01

Smoking appears to be a risk factor that may increase the number of different pulmonary infections. This link is likely to be mediated by smoking adverse effects on the respiratory defenses. A mathematical model to describe correlation between the number of smokers and its effect on the number of infected people suffer from respiratory disease like influenza is constructed in this paper. Promotion of healthy life is accounted in the model as an optimal control problem to reduce the number of smokers. In this work, the transition rates from smokers to non-smokers and from non-smokers to smokers are regarded as the control variables. Assuming the control variables are constant, equilibrium points of the model can be obtained analytically. The basic reproductive ratio as the endemic threshold is taken from the spectral radius of the next-generation matrix. Using numerical simulation, we show that the healthy life promotion can reduce the number of infected person significantly by reducing the number of smokers. Furthermore, different initial conditions to show different situations in the field are also simulated. It is shown that a large effort to increase the transition rate from smokers to non-smokers and to reduce the transition from non-smokers to smokers should be applied in the endemic reduction scenario.

Integrated Community Strategies for Linking Youth to Adolescent Reproductive Health Services: A Case Study.

PubMed

Sotolongo, Joy; House, L Duane; Swanson, Sally; Davis, Sarah E H

2017-03-01

This article describes the development and promotion of a full-service adolescent health center at a local health department intended to increase teen access to contraceptive and reproductive health care. This work was conducted as part of a multicomponent, community-based teen pregnancy prevention initiative in Gaston County, North Carolina. To increase access to adolescent reproductive health services, we implemented multiple integrated strategies: (1) building community support for adolescent reproductive health services; (2) providing technical assistance to the health department in opening the Teen Wellness Center (TWC), a teen-centered, full-service clinic; (3) strengthening referral partnerships between community organizations and clinical services; and (4) educating teens on how to access reproductive health services. Data were collected to examine the change in the number of adolescent reproductive health clients after the opening of the TWC. In the first year, the TWC was opened, 1,675 adolescent clients received reproductive health services, for a 12.5% increase compared with the prior year. The number of adolescent clients who received more than one type of reproductive health services (e.g., wellness visit and family planning services) increased by 133%. The number of adolescent clients who received family planning services increased by 3.8%. The project achieved an increase in adolescent reproductive health clients. Establishment of a teen-centered, full-service clinic and working with youth-serving agencies to increase knowledge of the clinic's services are promising approaches to increasing teen access to reproductive health care. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toxic plants: Effects on reproduction and fetal and embryonic development in livestock

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reproductive success is dependent on a large number of carefully orchestrated biological events that must occur in a specifically timed sequence. The interference with one of more of these sequences or events may result in total reproductive failure or a more subtle reduction in reproductive potent...

A generic model for a single strain mosquito-transmitted disease with memory on the host and the vector.

PubMed

Sardar, Tridip; Rana, Sourav; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi; Al-Khaled, Kamel; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

2015-05-01

In the present investigation, three mathematical models on a common single strain mosquito-transmitted diseases are considered. The first one is based on ordinary differential equations, and other two models are based on fractional order differential equations. The proposed models are validated using published monthly dengue incidence data from two provinces of Venezuela during the period 1999-2002. We estimate several parameters of these models like the order of the fractional derivatives (in case of two fractional order systems), the biting rate of mosquito, two probabilities of infection, mosquito recruitment and mortality rates, etc., from the data. The basic reproduction number, R0, for the ODE system is estimated using the data. For two fractional order systems, an upper bound for, R0, is derived and its value is obtained using the published data. The force of infection, and the effective reproduction number, R(t), for the three models are estimated using the data. Sensitivity analysis of the mosquito memory parameter with some important responses is worked out. We use Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to identify the best model among the three proposed models. It is observed that the model with memory in both the host, and the vector population provides a better agreement with epidemic data. Finally, we provide a control strategy for the vector-borne disease, dengue, using the memory of the host, and the vector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

PubMed

Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A critical number of workers in a honeybee colony triggers investment in reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Michael L.; Ostwald, Madeleine M.; Loftus, J. Carter; Seeley, Thomas D.

2014-10-01

Social insect colonies, like individual organisms, must decide as they develop how to allocate optimally their resources among survival, growth, and reproduction. Only when colonies reach a certain state do they switch from investing purely in survival and growth to investing also in reproduction. But how do worker bees within a colony detect that their colony has reached the state where it is adaptive to begin investing in reproduction? Previous work has shown that larger honeybee colonies invest more in reproduction (i.e., the production of drones and queens), however, the term `larger' encompasses multiple colony parameters including number of adult workers, size of the nest, amount of brood, and size of the honey stores. These colony parameters were independently increased in this study to test which one(s) would increase a colony's investment in reproduction via males. This was assayed by measuring the construction of drone comb, the special type of comb in which drones are reared. Only an increase in the number of workers stimulated construction of drone comb. Colonies with over 4,000 workers began building drone comb, independent of the other colony parameters. These results show that attaining a critical number of workers is the key parameter for honeybee colonies to start to shift resources towards reproduction. These findings are relevant to other social systems in which a group's members must adjust their behavior as a function of the group's size.

Indonesian infertility patients’ health seeking behaviour and patterns of access to biomedical infertility care: an interviewer administered survey conducted in three clinics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Indonesia has high levels of biological need for infertility treatment, great sociological and psychological demand for children, and yet existing infertility services are underutilized. Access to adequate comprehensive reproductive health services, including infertility care, is a basic reproductive right regardless of the economic circumstances in which individuals are born into. Thus, identifying and implementing strategies to improve access to assisted reproductive technology (ART) in Indonesia is imperative. The principle objectives of this article are to improve our understanding of infertility patients’ patterns of health seeking behaviour and their patterns of access to infertility treatment in Indonesia, in order to highlight the possibilities for improving access. Methods An interviewer-administered survey was conducted with 212 female infertility patients recruited through three Indonesian infertility clinics between July and September 2011. Participants were self-selected and data was subject to descriptive statistical analysis. Results Patients identified a number of barriers to access, including: low confidence in infertility treatment and high rates of switching between providers due to perceived treatment failure; the number and location of clinics; the lack of a well established referral system; the cost of treatment; and patients also experienced fear of receiving a diagnosis of sterility, of vaginal examinations and of embarrassment. Women’s age of marriage and the timing of their initial presentation to gynaecologists were not found to be barriers to timely access to infertility care. Conclusions The findings based on the responses of 212 female infertility patients indicated four key areas of opportunity for improving access to infertility care. Firstly, greater patient education about the nature and progression of infertility care was required among this group of women. Secondly, increased resources in terms of the number and distribution of infertility clinics would reduce the substantial travel required to access infertility care. Thirdly, improvements in the financial accessibility of infertility care would have promoted ease of access to care in this sample. Finally, the expansion of poorly developed referral systems would also have enhanced the efficiency with which this group of patients were able to access appropriate care. PMID:23020912

Analyzing transmission dynamics of cholera with public health interventions.

PubMed

Posny, Drew; Wang, Jin; Mukandavire, Zindoga; Modnak, Chairat

2015-06-01

Cholera continues to be a serious public health concern in developing countries and the global increase in the number of reported outbreaks suggests that activities to control the diseases and surveillance programs to identify or predict the occurrence of the next outbreaks are not adequate. These outbreaks have increased in frequency, severity, duration and endemicity in recent years. Mathematical models for infectious diseases play a critical role in predicting and understanding disease mechanisms, and have long provided basic insights in the possible ways to control infectious diseases. In this paper, we present a new deterministic cholera epidemiological model with three types of control measures incorporated into a cholera epidemic setting: treatment, vaccination and sanitation. Essential dynamical properties of the model with constant intervention controls which include local and global stabilities for the equilibria are carefully analyzed. Further, using optimal control techniques, we perform a study to investigate cost-effective solutions for time-dependent public health interventions in order to curb disease transmission in epidemic settings. Our results show that the basic reproductive number (R0) remains the model's epidemic threshold despite the inclusion of a package of cholera interventions. For time-dependent controls, the results suggest that these interventions closely interplay with each other, and the costs of controls directly affect the length and strength of each control in an optimal strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A State Articulated Instructional Objectives Guide for Occupational Education Programs. State Pilot Model for Drafting (Graphic Communications). Part I--Basic. Part II--Specialty Programs. Section A (Mechanical Drafting and Design). Section B (Architectural Drafting and Design).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

North Carolina State Dept. of Community Colleges, Raleigh.

A two-part articulation instructional objective guide for drafting (graphic communications) is provided. Part I contains summary information on seven blocks (courses) of instruction. They are as follow: introduction; basic technical drafting; problem solving in graphics; reproduction processes; freehand drawing and sketching; graphics composition;…

Large-scale Individual-based Models of Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadau, Kai; Germann, Timothy; Longini, Ira; Macken, Catherine

2007-03-01

We have developed a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million people, to assess the likely effectiveness of various potential intervention strategies including antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) [1]. The heterogeneous population structure and mobility is based on available Census and Department of Transportation data where available. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For large basic reproductive numbers R0, we predict that multiple strategies in combination (involving both social and medical interventions) will be required to achieve a substantial reduction in illness rates. [1] T. C. Germann, K. Kadau, I. M. Longini, and C. A. Macken, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 103, 5935-5940 (2006).

Plant toxins that affect nicotinic acetylcholine receptors: A review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plants produce wide variety of chemical compounds termed secondary metabolites that are not involved in basic metabolism, photosynthesis or reproduction. These compounds are used as flavors, fragrances, insecticides, dyes, hallucinogens, nutritional supplements, poisons, and pharmaceutical agents. ...

Teaching Basic Science Environmentally. Concept: Plants Reproduce Their Own Kind.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busch, Phyllis

1987-01-01

Offers suggestions for spring activities focusing on plant reproduction both indoors and outdoors. Suggests planting seeds to observe, measure, and record effects of temperature, moisture, fertilizer. Recommends outdoor study of the horsetail plant. (NEC)

A delay differential equation model for dengue transmission with regular visits to a mosquito breeding site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaacob, Y.; Yeak, S. H.; Lim, R. S.; Soewono, E.

2015-03-01

Dengue disease has been known as one of widely transmitted vector-borne diseases which potentially affects millions of people throughout the world especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries. One of the main factors contributing in the complication of the transmission process is the mobility of people in which people may get infection in the places far from their home. Here we construct a delay differential equation model for dengue transmission in a closed population where regular visits of people to a mosquito breeding site out of their residency such as traditional market take place daily. Basic reproductive ratio of the system is obtained and depends on the ratio between the outgoing rates of susceptible human and infective human. It is shown that the increase of mobility with different variation of mobility rates may contribute to different level of basic reproductive ratio as well as different level of outbreaks.

Mathematical model for transmission of tuberculosis in badger population with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tasmi, Aldila, D.; Soewono, E.; Nuraini, N.

2016-04-01

Badger was first time identified as a carrier of Bovine tuberculosis disease in England since 30 years ago. Bovine tuberculosis can be transmitted to another species through the faces, saliva, and breath. The control of tuberculosis in the badger is necessary to reduce the spread of the disease to other species. Many actions have been taken by the government to tackle the disease such as culling badgers with cyanide gas, but this way destroys the natural balance and disrupts the badger population. An alternative way to eliminate tuberculosis within badger population is by vaccination. Here in this paper a model for transmission of badger tuberculosis with vaccination is discussed. The existence of the endemic equilibrium, the stability and the basic reproduction ratio are shown analytically. Numerical simulations show that with proper vaccination level, the basic reproduction ratio could be reduced significantly. Sensitivity analysis for variation of parameters are shown numerically.

A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s < 1, under some mild extra conditions, there exists a disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

Sensitivity analysis in a Lassa fever deterministic mathematical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullahi, Mohammed Baba; Doko, Umar Chado; Mamuda, Mamman

2015-05-01

Lassa virus that causes the Lassa fever is on the list of potential bio-weapons agents. It was recently imported into Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States as a consequence of the rapid growth of international traffic. A model with five mutually exclusive compartments related to Lassa fever is presented and the basic reproduction number analyzed. A sensitivity analysis of the deterministic model is performed. This is done in order to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameter is the human immigration, followed by human recovery rate, then person to person contact. This suggests that control strategies should target human immigration, effective drugs for treatment and education to reduced person to person contact.

Effects of active links on epidemic transmission over social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Fu, Xinchu

2017-02-01

A new epidemic model with two infection periods is developed to account for the human behavior in social network, where newly infected individuals gradually restrict most of future contacts or are quarantined, causing infectivity change from a degree-dependent form to a constant. The corresponding dynamics are formulated by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) via mean-field approximation. The effects of diverse infectivity on the epidemic dynamics ​are examined, with a behavioral interpretation of the basic reproduction number. Results show that such simple adaptive reactions largely determine the impact of network structure on epidemics. Particularly, a theorem proposed by Lajmanovich and Yorke in 1976 is generalized, so that it can be applied for the analysis of the epidemic models with multi-compartments especially network-coupled ODE systems.

Vaccination strategies for SIR vector-transmitted diseases.

PubMed

Cruz-Pacheco, Gustavo; Esteva, Lourdes; Vargas, Cristobal

2014-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are one of the major public health problems in the world with the fastest spreading rate. Control measures have been focused on vector control, with poor results in most cases. Vaccines should help to reduce the diseases incidence, but vaccination strategies should also be defined. In this work, we propose a vector-transmitted SIR disease model with age-structured population subject to a vaccination program. We find an expression for the age-dependent basic reproductive number R(0), and we show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally stable for R(0) ≤ 1, and a unique endemic equilibrium exists for R(0) > 1. We apply the theoretical results to public data to evaluate vaccination strategies, immunization levels, and optimal age of vaccination for dengue disease.

Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

PubMed

van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2018-04-12

We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

Malaria ecology and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCord, G. C.

2016-05-01

Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

Global dynamics of a mathematical model for the possible re-emergence of polio.

PubMed

Dénes, Attila; Székely, László

2017-11-01

Motivated by studies warning about a possible re-emergence of poliomyelitis in Europe, we analyse a compartmental model for the transmission of polio describing the possible effect of unvaccinated people arriving to a region with low vaccination coverage. We calculate the basic reproduction number, and determine the global dynamics of the system: we show that, depending on the parameters, one of the two equilibria is globally asymptotically stable. The main tools applied are Lyapunov functions and persistence theory. We illustrate the analytic results by numerical examples, which also suggest that in order to avoid the risk of polio re-emergence, vaccinating the immigrant population might result insufficient, and also the vaccination coverage of countries with low rates should be increased. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of the stability of a SEIRS model for computer worm propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández Guillén, J. D.; Martín del Rey, A.; Hernández Encinas, L.

2017-08-01

Nowadays, malware is the most important threat to information security. In this sense, several mathematical models to simulate malware spreading have appeared. They are compartmental models where the population of devices is classified into different compartments: susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, etc. The main goal of this work is to propose an improved SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model to simulate computer worm propagation. It is a continuous model whose dynamic is ruled by means of a system of ordinary differential equations. It considers more realistic parameters related to the propagation; in fact, a modified incidence rate has been used. Moreover, the equilibrium points are computed and their local and global stability analyses are studied. From the explicit expression of the basic reproductive number, efficient control measures are also obtained.

Dynamics of an SAITS alcoholism model on unweighted and weighted networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Hai-Feng; Cui, Fang-Fang; Xiang, Hong

2018-04-01

A novel SAITS alcoholism model on networks is introduced, in which alcoholics are divided into light problem alcoholics and heavy problem alcoholics. Susceptible individuals can enter into the compartment of heavy problem alcoholics directly by contacting with light problem alcoholics or heavy problem alcoholics and the heavy problem alcoholics who receive treatment can relapse into the compartment of heavy problem alcoholics are also considered. First, the dynamics of our model on unweighted networks, including the basic reproduction number, existence and stability of equilibria are studied. Second, the models with fixed weighted and adaptive weighted networks are introduced and investigated. At last, some simulations are presented to illustrate and extend our results. Our results show that it is very important to treat alcoholics to quit the drinking.

Chronic hepatitis B infection and HBV DNA-containing capsids: Modeling and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manna, Kalyan; Chakrabarty, Siddhartha P.

2015-05-01

We analyze the dynamics of chronic HBV infection taking into account both uninfected and infected hepatocytes along with the intracellular HBV DNA-containing capsids and the virions. While previous HBV models have included either the uninfected hepatocytes or the intracellular HBV DNA-containing capsids, our model accounts for both these two populations. We prove the conditions for local and global stability of both the uninfected and infected steady states in terms of the basic reproduction number. Further, we incorporate a time lag in the model to encompass the intracellular delay in the production of the infected hepatocytes and find that this delay does not affect the overall dynamics of the system. The results for the model and the delay model are finally numerically illustrated.

The ART of mating: alternative reproductive tactics and mating success in a nest-guarding fish.

PubMed

Mascolino, S; Benvenuto, C; Gubili, C; Sacchi, C; Boufana, B; Mariani, S

2016-12-01

Behavioural observations in the field of male Mediterranean damselfish Chromis chromis were combined with molecular analyses, using bi-parentally and maternally inherited markers, to investigate reproductive success patterns of alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) in terms of number of eggs sired and number of females contributing to each nest. Cuckoldry was observed in every nest sampled, with at least two and up to seven sneaker males per nest. The nesting male, however, always significantly fertilized the greater number of eggs (on average 49%) in each clutch, whereas each sneaker fertilized around 7% of the clutch. The average number of females whose eggs were fertilized by nesting males was 6·76 (range 2-13), while each sneaker on average fertilized the eggs of 1·74 (range 1-8) females. Using this sibship reconstruction, some of the factors involved in the regulation of the dynamic equilibrium of reproductive success were investigated between the two ARTs shown by C. chromis males. Results show that the sneakers' reproductive success was positively linked to egg clutch size; the density of individuals in the nesting area negatively affected the size of egg clutches; the rate of defence behaviours performed by nesting males negatively influenced the number of females contributing to each nest. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue Infection.

PubMed

Jafaruddin; Indratno, Sapto W; Nuraini, Nuning; Supriatna, Asep K; Soewono, Edy

2015-01-01

Estimating the basic reproductive ratio ℛ 0 of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate ℛ 0 which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumption that in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment (previous work). In the first proposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infection for mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, we add an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of an infected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment, and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data from SB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008-Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginning of a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of ℛ 0: scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time (daily) and scenario II from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our first construction of ℛ 0 accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the ℛ 0 estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

Differences in Patterns of Reproductive Allocation between the Sexes in Nicrophorus orbicollis.

PubMed

Smith, Ashlee N; Creighton, J Curtis; Belk, Mark C

2015-01-01

Organisms are selected to maximize lifetime reproductive success by balancing the costs of current reproduction with costs to future survival and fecundity. Males and females typically face different reproductive costs, which makes comparisons of their reproductive strategies difficult. Burying beetles provide a unique system that allows us to compare the costs of reproduction between the sexes because males and females are capable of raising offspring together or alone and carcass preparation and offspring care represent the majority of reproductive costs for both sexes. Because both sexes perform the same functions of carcass preparation and offspring care, we predict that they would experience similar costs and have similar life history patterns. In this study we assess the cost of reproduction in male Nicrophorus orbicollis and compare to patterns observed in females. We compare the reproductive strategies of single males and females that provided pre- and post-hatching parental care. There is a cost to reproduction for both males and females, but the sexes respond to these costs differently. Females match brood size with carcass size, and thus maximize the lifetime number of offspring on a given size carcass. Males cull proportionately more offspring on all carcass sizes, and thus have a lower lifetime number of offspring compared to females. Females exhibit an adaptive reproductive strategy based on resource availability, but male reproductive strategies are not adaptive in relation to resource availability.

A model for a chikungunya outbreak in a rural Cambodian setting: implications for disease control in uninfected areas.

PubMed

Robinson, Marguerite; Conan, Anne; Duong, Veasna; Ly, Sowath; Ngan, Chantha; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-09-01

Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]). We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction.

A Model for a Chikungunya Outbreak in a Rural Cambodian Setting: Implications for Disease Control in Uninfected Areas

PubMed Central

Duong, Veasna; Ly, Sowath; Ngan, Chantha; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

2014-01-01

Following almost 30 years of relative silence, chikungunya fever reemerged in Kenya in 2004. It subsequently spread to the islands of the Indian Ocean, reaching Southeast Asia in 2006. The virus was first detected in Cambodia in 2011 and a large outbreak occurred in the village of Trapeang Roka Kampong Speu Province in March 2012, in which 44% of the villagers had a recent infection biologically confirmed. The epidemic curve was constructed from the number of biologically-confirmed CHIKV cases per day determined from the date of fever onset, which was self-reported during a data collection campaign conducted in the village after the outbreak. All individuals participating in the campaign had infections confirmed by laboratory analysis, allowing for the identification of asymptomatic cases and those with an unreported date of fever onset. We develop a stochastic model explicitly including such cases, all of whom do not appear on the epidemic curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the outbreak to be 6.46 (95% C.I. [6.24, 6.78]). We show that this estimate is particularly sensitive to changes in the biting rate and mosquito longevity. Our model also indicates that the infection was more widespread within the population on the reported epidemic start date. We show that the exclusion of asymptomatic cases and cases with undocumented onset dates can lead to an underestimation of the reproduction number which, in turn, could negatively impact control strategies implemented by public health authorities. We highlight the need for properly documenting newly emerging pathogens in immunologically naive populations and the importance of identifying the route of disease introduction. PMID:25210729

Lasers in the in-vitro fertilization laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadir, Yona; Neev, Joseph; Berns, Michael W.

1993-05-01

Laser beams are routinely used in the clinical practice of assisted reproduction. The main applications are in laparoscopic and hysteroscopic surgery. The potential applications of laser microbeams as a tool for gamete manipulations are studied and basic concepts are discussed.

Reproduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reproductive efficiency, or percentage of lamb crop raised and marketed, is the major factor affecting profitability of a sheep flock. Frequently, an increased reproductive rate will be the most efficient way to increase income rather than an increase in numbers of ewes. Consequently, increasing th...

Flower diversity and bee reproduction in an arid ecosystem.

PubMed

Dorado, Jimena; Vázquez, Diego P

2016-01-01

Diverse flower communities are more stable in floral resource production along the flowering season, but the question about how the diversity and stability of resources affect pollinator reproduction remains open. High plant diversity could favor short foraging trips, which in turn would enhance bee fitness. In addition to plant diversity, greater temporal stability of floral resources in diverse communities could favor pollinator fitness because such communities are likely to occupy the phenological space more broadly, increasing floral availability for pollinators throughout the season. In addition, this potential effect of flower diversity on bee reproduction could be stronger for generalist pollinators because they can use a broader floral spectrum. Based on above arguments we predicted that pollinator reproduction would be positively correlated to flower diversity, and to temporal stability in flower production, and that this relationship would be stronger for the most generalized pollinator species. Using structural equation models, we evaluated the effect of these variables and other ecological factors on three estimates of bee reproduction (average number of brood cells per nest per site, total number of brood cells per site, and total number of nests per site), and whether such effects were modulated by bee generalization on floral resources. Contrary to our expectations, flower diversity had no effect on bee reproduction, stability in flower production had a weakly negative effect on one of the bee reproductive variables, and the strength of the fitness-diversity relationship was unrelated to bee generalization. In contrast, elevation had a negative effect on bee reproduction, despite the narrow elevation range encompassed by our sites. Flower diversity did not affect the reproduction of the solitary bees studied here. This result could stem from the context dependence of the diversity-stability relationship, given that elevation had a positive effect on flower diversity but a negative effect on bee reproduction. Although high temporal stability in flower production is expected to enhance pollinator reproduction, in our study it had a weakly negative-instead of positive-effect on the average number of brood cells per nest. Other environmental factors that vary with elevation could influence bee reproduction. Our study focused on a small group of closely-related bee species, which cautions against generalization of our findings to other groups of pollinators. More studies are clearly needed to assess the extent to which pollinator demography is influenced by the diversity of floral resources.

Helicopter Visual Segment Approach Lighting System (HALS) Test Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

this Pegl 23. Ne. a# Palo$ 22. Ptuco Unclassified Unclassified 316 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-721 Reproduction of e9Isted Ppe authorized TABLE OF CONTENTS...Subject Pilot Range Rate/Vertical Position Plots lii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page I Basic Heliport IFR Lighting System 4 2 Heliport Approach...Instrument Flight Rules ( IFR ) Heliport Lighting System and a centerline HALS. The Basic IFR Approach Light System is presented in figure 1. It consists of

Tributyltin impairs the reproductive cycle in female rats.

PubMed

Lang Podratz, Priscila; Delgado Filho, Vicente Sathler; Lopes, Pedro Francisco Iguatemy; Cavati Sena, Gabriela; Matsumoto, Silvia Tamie; Samoto, Vivian Yochiko; Takiya, Christina Maeda; de Castro Miguel, Emilio; Silva, Ian Victor; Graceli, Jones Bernardes

2012-01-01

Triorganotins are environmental contaminants, commonly used in antifouling agents for boats, that bioaccumulate and thus are found in mammals and humans due to ingestion of contaminated seafood diets. The importance of triorganotins as environmental endocrine disruptors and consequent reproductive toxicity in different animal models is well known; however, the adverse effects on reproductive cycle are less well understood. The potential reproductive toxicity of tributyltin (TBT) on regular reproductive cycling of female rats was examined. Wistar female rats (12 wk old, weighing approximately 230 g) were divided into two groups: control (vehicle, ethanol 0.4%) and tributyltin (100 ng/kg/d, 7 d/wk, for 16 d by gavage). Tributyltin significantly decreased the cycle regularity (%), duration of the reproductive cycle, the proestrus and diestrus phases, and number of epithelial cell in proestrus phase. TBT also increased the duration of metestrus and the number of cornified cells in this phase. Ovary weight and serum 17β-estradiol levels decreased markedly, accompanied by a significant increase in progesterone levels. Histological analysis showed apoptotic cells in corpus luteum and granulosa cells layer, with cystic follicles after TBT exposure. Tributyltin also elevated number of atretic follicles and corpoa lutea. The micronucleus (MN) test, using Chinese hamster ovary cells, demonstrated a concentration-dependent mutagenic effect of TBT, and at 2.0 × 10(-2)ng/ml most of the cells were nonviable. The toxic potential of TBT over the reproductive cycle may be attributed to changes found in the ovarian weight, unbalanced levels of sexual female hormones, and number of ovarian follicles and corpora lutea.

Resource effects on solitary bee reproduction in a managed crop pollination system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The number of solitary bees (Megachile rotundata) released for pollination in a managed system (Medicago sativa seed production) and the number of flowers available for brood provisioning may affect reproduction through maternal resource allocation and investment. Overwhelming, limited, or adequate...

The history of three scientific societies: the Society for the Study of Fertility (now the Society for Reproduction and Fertility) (Britain), the Société Française pour l'Etude de la Fertilité, and the Society for the Study of Reproduction (USA).

PubMed

Clarke, John

2007-06-01

Three scientific societies devoted to the study of reproduction were established in Britain, France and USA in the middle of the twentieth century by clinical, veterinary and agricultural scientists. The principal motivation for their establishment had been the study of sterility and fertility of people and livestock. There was also a wider perspective embracing other biologists interested in reproduction more generally. Knowledge disseminated through the societies' scientific meetings and publications would bear upon human and animal population problems as well as basic reproductive physiology and its applications. New journals dealing with reproductive physiology, having worldwide appeal, were established in Britain and USA. The financial resources of at least one of the societies and its journal are directed towards charitable functions, including financial support for travel to scientific meetings, for visits to particular laboratories, and for research in the short term, including that of undergraduates. Perhaps the example of the British society has given rise to others having a more specialised focus, as well as to the formation of the European Society for the Study of Human Reproduction and Embryology.

Refining Reproductive Parameters for Modelling Sustainability and Extinction in Hunted Primate Populations in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

2014-01-01

Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the ‘Production Model’, and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon’s most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig’s woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48–0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

Modelling the social dynamics of a sex industry: its implications for spread of HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ying Hen; Hsun Chen, Chien

2004-01-01

A theoretical model is proposed for a community which has the structure of two classes (direct and indirect) of commercial sex workers (CSW), and two classes of sexually active male customers with different levels of sexual activity. The direct CSW's work in brothels while the indirect CSW's are based in commercial establishments such as bars, cafes, and massage parlours where sex can be bought on request and conducted elsewhere. Behaviour change and the resulting change of activity class occurs between the two classes of CSW's and two classes of males under the setting of the proliferation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic and the subsequent intervention programmes. In recently years, this phenomenon has been observed in several countries in Asia. Given the lower levels of condom use and higher HIV prevalence of the indirect CSW's, ascertaining the impact of this change in the structure of the sex industry on the spread of HIV is the main focus of this paper. The complete analysis of the disease-free model is given. For the full model, local analysis will be performed for the case of preferred mixing without activity class change, as well as the case with activity class change and restricted mixing. The basic reproduction number for the spread of epidemic will be derived for each case. Results of biological significance include: (i). the change of behaviour by the CSW's has a more direct effect on the spread of HIV than that of the male customers; (ii). the basic reproduction number is obtained by considering all possible infection cycles of the heterosexual transmission of HIV which indicates the importance of understanding the sexual networking in heterosexual transmission of HIV; (iii). the social dynamics of the sex industry is not just a simple 'supply and demand' mechanism driven by the demand of the customers, hence highlighting the need for further understanding of the changing structure of the sex industry. The main points of this work will be illustrated with numerical examples using the HIV data of Thailand.

Understanding the Effects of Mental Health on Reproductive Health Service Use: A Mixed Methods Approach

PubMed Central

Bell, Sue Anne; Lori, Jody; Redman, Richard; Seng, Julia

2016-01-01

Appropriate and woman-led health care for displaced women is essential to respecting basic human rights. In this paper, we describe the results of an analysis of the association between mental health and reproductive health service use from a sample of Congolese refugee women residing in short and long term camps in Rwanda, with a post-hoc qualitative potion added to expand upon the data-based results. Our findings suggest that structural factors including health policy initiatives affect or even inhibit individual care choices. PMID:26086238

Factors affecting the reproductive success of dominant male meerkats.

PubMed

Spong, Göran F; Hodge, Sarah J; Young, Andrew J; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2008-05-01

Identifying traits that affect the reproductive success of individuals is fundamental for our understanding of evolutionary processes. In cooperative breeders, a dominant male typically restricts mating access to the dominant female for extended periods, resulting in pronounced variation in reproductive success among males. This may result in strong selection for traits that increase the likelihood of dominance acquisition, dominance retention and reproductive rates while dominant. However, despite considerable research on reproductive skew, few studies have explored the factors that influence these three processes among males in cooperative species. Here we use genetic, behavioural and demographic data to investigate the factors affecting reproductive success in dominant male meerkats (Suricata suricatta). Our data show that dominant males sire the majority of all offspring surviving to 1 year. A male's likelihood of becoming dominant is strongly influenced by age, but not by weight. Tenure length and reproductive rate, both important components of dominant male reproductive success, are largely affected by group size and composition, rather than individual traits. Dominant males in large groups have longer tenures, but after this effect is controlled, male tenure length also correlates negatively to the number of adult females in the group. Male reproductive rate also declines as the number of intra- and extra-group competitors increases. As the time spent in the dominant position and reproductive rate while dominant explain > 80% of the total variance in reproductive success, group composition thus has major implications for male reproductive success.

Converging Towards the Optimal Path to Extinction

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

the reproductive rate R0 should be greater than but very close to 1. However, most real diseases have R0 larger than 1.5, which translates into a...can analytically find an expression for the action along the optimal path. The expression for the action is a function of k and the reproductive number...the optimal path for a range of values of the reproductive number R0. In contrast to the prior two examples, here the action must be computed

Sociality, individual fitness and population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Armitage, Kenneth B

2012-02-01

Social behaviour was proposed as a density-dependent intrinsic mechanism that could regulate an animal population by affecting reproduction and dispersal. Populations of the polygynous yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) fluctuate widely from year to year primarily driven by the number of weaned young. The temporal variation in projected population growth rate was driven mainly by changes in the age of first reproduction and fertility, which are affected by reproductive suppression. Dispersal is unrelated to population density, or the presence of the father; hence, neither of these limits population growth or acts as an intrinsic mechanism of population regulation; overall, intrinsic regulation seems unlikely. Sociality affects the likelihood of reproduction in that the annual probability of reproducing and the lifetime number of offspring are decreased by the number of older females and by the number of same-aged females present, but are increased by the number of younger adult females present. Recruitment of a yearling female is most likely when her mother is present; recruitment of philopatric females is much more important than immigration for increasing the number of adult female residents. Predation and overwinter mortality are the major factors limiting the number of resident adults. Social behaviour is not directed towards population regulation, but is best interpreted as functioning to maximize direct fitness. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Methods in molecular biology: plant cytogenetics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cytogenetic studies have contributed greatly to our understanding of genetics, biology, reproduction, and evolution. From early studies in basic chromosome behavior the field has expanded enabling whole genome analysis to the manipulation of chromosomes and their organization. This book covers a ran...

DEVELOPMENTAL EFFECTS OF DIETARY SOY PHYTOESTROGENS

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of the project is to conduct a series of experiments to determine whether developmental exposure to dietary phytochemicals that have estrogenic activity will affect central nervous system and reproductive system functions later in life. The basic design is, in additio...

Bioinformatics for spermatogenesis: annotation of male reproduction based on proteomics

PubMed Central

Zhou, Tao; Zhou, Zuo-Min; Guo, Xue-Jiang

2013-01-01

Proteomics strategies have been widely used in the field of male reproduction, both in basic and clinical research. Bioinformatics methods are indispensable in proteomics-based studies and are used for data presentation, database construction and functional annotation. In the present review, we focus on the functional annotation of gene lists obtained through qualitative or quantitative methods, summarizing the common and male reproduction specialized proteomics databases. We introduce several integrated tools used to find the hidden biological significance from the data obtained. We further describe in detail the information on male reproduction derived from Gene Ontology analyses, pathway analyses and biomedical analyses. We provide an overview of bioinformatics annotations in spermatogenesis, from gene function to biological function and from biological function to clinical application. On the basis of recently published proteomics studies and associated data, we show that bioinformatics methods help us to discover drug targets for sperm motility and to scan for cancer-testis genes. In addition, we summarize the online resources relevant to male reproduction research for the exploration of the regulation of spermatogenesis. PMID:23852026

DOH to integrate reproductive health in health care delivery.

PubMed

According to a Department of Health (DOH) official speaking at the recent Reproductive Health Advocacy Forum in Zamboanga City, the concept of reproductive health (RH) is now on the way to being fully integrated into the Philippines' primary health care system. The DOH is also developing integrated information, education, and communication material for an intensified advocacy campaign on RH among target groups in communities. The forum was held to enhance the knowledge and practice of RH among health, population and development program managers, field workers, and local government units. In this new RH framework, family planning becomes just one of many concerns of the RH package of services which includes maternal and child health, sexuality education, the prevention and treatment of abortion complications, prevention of violence against women, and the treatment of reproductive tract infections. Of concern, however, the Asian economic crisis has led the Philippine government to reduce funding, jeopardizing the public sector delivery of basic services, including reproductive health care. The crisis has also forced other governments in the region to reassess their priorities and redirect their available resources into projects which are practical and sustainable.

Health sector reform and reproductive health in Latin America and the Caribbean: strengthening the links.

PubMed Central

Langer, A.; Nigenda, G.; Catino, J.

2000-01-01

Many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are currently reforming their national health sectors and also implementing a comprehensive approach to reproductive health care. Three regional workshops to explore how health sector reform could improve reproductive health services have revealed the inherently complex, competing, and political nature of health sector reform and reproductive health. The objectives of reproductive health care can run parallel to those of health sector reform in that both are concerned with promoting equitable access to high quality care by means of integrated approaches to primary health care, and by the involvement of the public in setting health sector priorities. However, there is a serious risk that health reforms will be driven mainly by financial and/or political considerations and not by the need to improve the quality of health services as a basic human right. With only limited changes to the health systems in many Latin American and Caribbean countries and a handful of examples of positive progress resulting from reforms, the gap between rhetoric and practice remains wide. PMID:10859860

MECHANISMS OF MALE REPRODUCTIVE TOXICITY: BED, BATH AND BEYOND

EPA Science Inventory

Male reproductive function depends upon the integration of a great number of highly complex biological processes and their endocrine support. Therefore it is not surprising that male reproductive health can be impaired by exposures to drugs and environmental toxicants that impact...

Reproductive success and foraging of the crab spider Misumena vatia.

PubMed

Fritz, Robert S; Morse, Douglass H

1985-01-01

Reproductive success and growth rate data were collected for individually marked crab spiders Misumena vatia (Clerck) in 1980, 1981, and 1982. All measures of reproductive success were found to be quite variable between individuals within years, but did not differ between years. Reproductive effort (mass of clutch/prereproductive mass of female) was the least variable measurement and was not correlated with female weight at reproduction. Clutch weight and number of eggs per clutch were highly correlated with female reproductive weight. Egg weight was not correlated with the number of eggs per clutch. Hatching success did not vary with clutch size and averaged 94.5%. Growth rates of spiders were highly variable, indicating large variation in feeding rate. In 1981 and 1982, approximately 20% of female spiders were unable to capture enough prey to grow and reproduce. Primary prey species differed in weight and in their contribution to spider egg production. Spiders attacked a larger percentage of bumblebees but captured a larger percentage of honeybees. There was no simple relationship between diet choice and reproductive success. Spiders which selected suboptimal umbels to forage on some or all of the time, however, had significantly lower reproductive success than spiders choosing the best umbels.

Grassroots women have their say. Programme.

PubMed

1997-08-01

The International Reproductive Rights Research Action Group was founded in 1992 to conduct international research on the meanings of "reproductive rights" for grassroots women in different settings. The qualitative ethnographic study conducted in Brazil, Egypt, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, and the US sought to determine 1) concepts of entitlement about reproduction and sexuality; 2) how reproductive decisions are made; 3) how women practice resistance and accommodation in relation to self-identity and reproductive decision-making; and 4) what social, economic, legal, and political conditions and services affect women's decisions and reproductive life and rights. A number of interview techniques were employed with relatively small numbers of low-income people from diverse backgrounds in each country. The study revealed that significant similarities as well as differences existed among and within the study countries. The women studied exhibited a strong sense of entitlement over reproductive decisions, marriage, and sexual relations. In order to secure their needs, the women accommodated themselves to local expectations when they were unable to rely on a supportive environment to translate their sense of entitlement into effective rights.

More flowers or new cladodes? Environmental correlates and biological consequences of sexual reproduction in a Sonoran Desert prickly pear cactus, Opuntia engelmannii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

1996-01-01

Should a platyopuntia expend all aerolar meristems in flower production, now new cladodes could be produced, and further reproductive effort and vegetative growth would cease. To investigate the trade-off between flower and cladode production, the numbers of flowers, fruits, and cladodes were monitored for 4 years on 30 Opuntia engelmannii Salm-Dyek, plants on Tumamoc Hill, Tucson, Arizona. Plant size controlled the number of flowers initiated each spring. The proportion of flowers that developed (i.e., did not abort) was perhaps determined by December-February rainfall in the months before bloom, with more being developed in the wettest years. Models based on different ratios of initiated cladodes to initiated flowers demonstrated that continued high investment in flowers and fruits would eventually terminate reproduction altogether; therefore periods of high sexual reproduction should alternate with periods of high vegetative growth. In the first 3 years of this study, the ratio of new cladodes to initiated flowers was low, showing a high investment in sexual reproduction. As suggested by the model, the population recouped this investment in the fourth year, when the number of new cladodes was nearly 3 times the 1992-1994 mean, and the number of initiated flowers was only 73% of the 3-year mean.

Diabetes mellitus induced impairment of male reproductive functions: a review.

PubMed

Jangir, Ram Niwas; Jain, Gyan Chand

2014-05-01

Diabetes mellitus (DM) represents one of the greatest threats to human health all over the world. The incidence of DM is rising rapidly also including children and young persons of reproductive age. Diabetes has been associated with reproductive impairment in both men and women. Diabetes may affect male reproductive functions at multiple levels as a result of its effects on the endocrine control of spermatogenesis, steroidogenesis, sperm maturation, impairment of penile erection and ejaculation. A large number of studies both on diabetic men and experimental diabetic animals have been published on the impact of DM on male reproductive functions during the past few years but many of them have conflicting results. The present review summarizes the research finding of a large number of research papers on the reproductive functions especially on hypothalmo-pituitary-gonadal axis, spermatogenesis, histopathology of testis, synthesis and secretion of testosterone, sperm quality, ejaculatory function and fertility both in diabetic men and experimental diabetic animals.

Anopheline Reproductive Biology: Impacts on Vectorial Capacity and Potential Avenues for Malaria Control.

PubMed

Mitchell, Sara N; Catteruccia, Flaminia

2017-12-01

Vectorial capacity is a mathematical approximation of the efficiency of vector-borne disease transmission, measured as the number of new infections disseminated per case per day by an insect vector. Multiple elements of mosquito biology govern their vectorial capacity, including survival, population densities, feeding preferences, and vector competence. Intriguingly, biological pathways essential to mosquito reproductive fitness directly or indirectly influence a number of these elements. Here, we explore this complex interaction, focusing on how the interplay between mating and blood feeding in female Anopheles not only shapes their reproductive success but also influences their ability to sustain Plasmodium parasite development. Central to malaria transmission, mosquito reproductive biology has recently become the focus of research strategies aimed at malaria control, and we discuss promising new methods based on the manipulation of key reproductive steps. In light of widespread resistance to all public health-approved insecticides targeting mosquito reproduction may prove crucial to the success of malaria-eradication campaigns. Copyright © 2017 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

Surrogate mothering: exploitation or empowerment?

PubMed

Purdy, Laura M

1989-01-01

The morality of surrogate mothering is analyzed from a "consequentialist" framework which attempts to separate those consequences that invariably accompany a given act from those that accompany it only in particular circumstances. Critics of surrogacy argue that it transfers the burden and risk of pregnancy onto another woman, separates sex and reproduction, and separates reproduction and childrearing; none of these acts is necessarily wrong, either morally or for women's or society's basic interests. While surrogate mothering can be rendered immoral if women are coerced into the practice or become victims of subordinating or penalizing contracts, it has the potential to empower women and increase their status in society by providing a job that is less risky and more enjoyable than other jobs women are forced to take and by achieving greater social recognition for reproductive labor.

Malassezia species and seborrheic dermatitis.

PubMed

Zisova, Lilia G

2009-01-01

Malassezia spp. are medically important dimorphic, lipophilic yeasts that form part of the normal cutaneous microflora of human. Seborrheic dermatitis is a multifactor disease that needs endogenous and exogenous predisposing factors for its development. Presence of these factors leads to reproduction of the saprophytic opportunistic pathogen Malassezia spp. and development of a disease. The inflammatory reaction against the yeast Malassezia is considered basic in the etiology of the seborrheic dermatitis. The pathogenesis and exact mechanisms via which these yeasts cause inflammation are still not fully elucidated. They are rather complex and subject of controversy in literature. Most probably Malassezia spp. cause seborrheic dermatitis by involving and combining both nonummune and immune mechanisms (nonspecific and specific). Which of these mechanisms will dominate in any single case depends on the number and virulence of the yeasts as well as on the microorganism reactivity. In the recent years a great interest have been aroused by the epidemiological investigations. Depending on the geographical place of the countries different Malassezia species in seborrheic dermatitis dominate in the different countries. In view of the etiology and pathogenesis of the seborrheic dermatitis comprehensive antifungal preparations have been recently introduced and are nowadays the basic therapeutic resource in the treatment of this disease.

Multiscale model within-host and between-host for viral infectious diseases.

PubMed

Almocera, Alexis Erich S; Nguyen, Van Kinh; Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban A

2018-05-08

Multiscale models possess the potential to uncover new insights into infectious diseases. Here, a rigorous stability analysis of a multiscale model within-host and between-host is presented. The within-host model describes viral replication and the respective immune response while disease transmission is represented by a susceptible-infected model. The bridging of scales from within- to between-host considered transmission as a function of the viral load. Consequently, stability and bifurcation analyses were developed coupling the two basic reproduction numbers [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] for the within- and the between-host subsystems, respectively. Local stability results for each subsystem, including a unique stable equilibrium point, recapitulate classical approaches to infection and epidemic control. Using a Lyapunov function, global stability of the between-host system was obtained. Our main result was the derivation of the [Formula: see text] as an increasing function of [Formula: see text]. Numerical analyses reveal that a Michaelis-Menten form based on the virus is more likely to recapitulate the behavior between the scales than a form directly proportional to the virus. Our work contributes basic understandings of the two models and casts light on the potential effects of the coupling function on linking the two scales.

[Stimulation of mouse encephalomyocarditis virus reproduction by non-multiplying poliomyelitis virus in several transplantable tissue culture lines].

PubMed

Maslova, S V; Shirman, G A; Gavrilovskaia, I N

1977-01-01

Reproduction of mouse encephalomyocarditis virus (EMC) was studied in 5 continuous primate cell lines: HeLa, Fl, Detroit-6, P/7, and MIO inoculated with guanidine-dependent variant of poliomyelitis virus in the absence of guanidine. Poliomyelitis virus stimulated EMC virus reproduction in all cell lines under study. This stimulation effect was studied at length in HeLa and MIO cells. In HeLa cells, stimulation was observed at a low and moderate multiplicity of infection of EMC virus but not at a high (100 PEU/cell) multiplicity. Also, when EMC virus reproduction was stimulated, a shortening of the latent period of its multiplication cycle, an increase in the number of antigen-containing cells and the number of infectious centers were observed. In MIO cells, stimulation was found to occur both with low and high doses of EMC virus but not to be accompanied by a shortening in the latent period of EMC reproduction cycle, or any increase in the antigen-containing cells or number of infectious centers. In both cell types upon mixed infection the synthesis of virus-specific RNA's of EMC virus was enhanced. It is suggested that the stimulating effect of poliomyelitis virus is realized in HeLa and MIO cells at different stages of EMC virus reproduction.

Stability of a general delayed virus dynamics model with humoral immunity and cellular infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elaiw, A. M.; Raezah, A. A.; Alofi, A. S.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior of a general nonlinear model for virus dynamics with virus-target and infected-target incidences. The model incorporates humoral immune response and distributed time delays. The model is a four dimensional system of delay differential equations where the production and removal rates of the virus and cells are given by general nonlinear functions. We derive the basic reproduction parameter R˜0 G and the humoral immune response activation number R˜1 G and establish a set of conditions on the general functions which are sufficient to determine the global dynamics of the models. We use suitable Lyapunov functionals and apply LaSalle's invariance principle to prove the global asymptotic stability of the all equilibria of the model. We confirm the theoretical results by numerical simulations.

A new SEIR epidemic model with applications to the theory of eradication and control of diseases, and to the calculation of R0.

PubMed

Huang, Sen-Zhong

2008-09-01

We present a novel SEIR (susceptible-exposure-infective-recovered) model that is suitable for modeling the eradication of diseases by mass vaccination or control of diseases by case isolation combined with contact tracing, incorporating the vaccine efficacy or the control efficacy into the model. Moreover, relying on this novel SEIR model and some probabilistic arguments, we have found four formulas that are suitable for estimating the basic reproductive numbers R(0) in terms of the ratio of the mean infectious period to the mean latent period of a disease. The ranges of R(0) for most known diseases, that are calculated by our formulas, coincide very well with the values of R(0) estimated by the usual method of fitting the models to observed data.

How the distance between regional and human mobility behavior affect the epidemic spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minna; Han, She; Sun, Mei; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

The distance between different regions has a lot of impact on the individuals' mobility behavior. Meanwhile, the individuals' mobility could greatly affect the epidemic propagation way. By researching the individuals' mobility behavior, we establish the coupled dynamic model for individual mobility and transmission of infectious disease. The basic reproduction number is theoretically obtained according to the next-generation matrix method. Through this study, we may get that the stability state of the epidemic system will be prolonged under a higher commuting level. The infection density is almost the same in different regions over a sufficiently long time. The results show that, due to the individual movement, the origin of virus can only speed up or delay the outbreak of infectious diseases, however, it have little impact on the final infection size.

Duelling timescales of host mixing and disease spread determine invasion of disease in structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, P.C.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Johnson, P.L.F.; Getz, W.M.

2005-01-01

The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R0. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R0, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases ‘perceive’ a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R* statistic, a group-level equivalent of R0, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R0.

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

PubMed

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of a waterborne disease model with socioeconomic classes.

PubMed

Collins, O C; Robertson, Suzanne L; Govinder, K S

2015-11-01

Waterborne diseases such as cholera continue to pose serious public health problems in the world today. Transmission parameters can vary greatly with socioeconomic class (SEC) and the availability of clean water. We formulate a multi-patch waterborne disease model such that each patch represents a particular SEC with its own water source, allowing individuals to move between SECs. For a 2-SEC model, we investigate the conditions under which each SEC is responsible for driving a cholera outbreak. We determine the effect of SECs on disease transmission dynamics by comparing the basic reproduction number of the 2-SEC model to that of a homogeneous model that does not take SECs into account. We conclude by extending several results of the 2-SEC model to an n-SEC model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic analysis and optimal control for a model of hepatitis C with treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Suxia; Xu, Xiaxia

2017-05-01

A model for hepatitis C is formulated to study the effects of treatment and public concern on HCV transmission dynamics. The stability of equilibria and persistence of the model are analyzed, and an optimal control measure is performed to prevent the spread of HCV with minimal infected individuals and cost. The dynamical analysis reveals that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number R0 is less than unity. On the other hand, if R0 > 1 , the disease is uniformly persistent. Numerical simulations are conducted to investigate the influence of different vital parameters on R0. For the corresponding optimality system, the optimal solution is discussed by Pontryagin Maximum Principle, and the comparisons of model-predicted consequences with control or not are presented.

Optimal control analysis of malaria-schistosomiasis co-infection dynamics.

PubMed

Okosun, Kazeem Oare; Smith, Robert

2017-04-01

This paper presents a mathematical model for malaria--schistosomiasis co-infection in order to investigate their synergistic relationship in the presence of treatment. We first analyse the single infection steady states, then investigate the existence and stability of equilibria and then calculate the basic reproduction numbers. Both the single-infection models and the co-infection model exhibit backward bifurcations. We carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the co-infection model and show that schistosomiasis infection may not be associated with an increased risk of malaria. Conversely, malaria infection may be associated with an increased risk of schistosomiasis. Furthermore, we found that effective treatment and prevention of schistosomiasis infection would also assist in the effective control and eradication of malaria. Finally, we apply Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to the model in order to determine optimal strategies for control of both diseases.

Medicinal Plants Used for Treating Reproductive Health Care Problems in Cameroon, Central Africa1.

PubMed

Tsobou, Roger; Mapongmetsem, Pierre Marie; Van Damme, Patrick

Medicinal Plants Used for Treating Reproductive Health Care Problems in Cameroon, Central Africa. Approximately 80% of the African population uses traditional plants to deal with health problems, basically because of their easy accessibility and affordability. This study was carried out to document indigenous knowledge of medicinal plants used by traditional healers and elders in the treatment of reproductive health care in the Bamboutos Division of the West Region in Cameroon, Central Africa. The research methods used included semi-structured interviews and participative field observations. For the interviews, 70 knowledgeable respondents (40 traditional healers and 30 elders) were selected via purposive sampling. Voucher specimens were collected with the help of respondents, processed into the Cameroon National Herbarium in Yaoundé following standard methods, identified with the help of pertinent floras and taxonomic experts, and submitted to Department of Botany at the University of Dschang. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze and summarize ethnobotanical information obtained. Informant consensus factors (ICF) were used to elucidate the agreement among informants on the species to be used in the treatment within a category of illness. The results showed that a total of 70 plant species from 37 families (mostly of the Asteraceae [8 species], Euphorbiaceae [7], and Acanthaceae and Bignoniaceae [4 each]) are used in the treatment of 27 reproductive ailments, with the highest number of species (37) being used against venereal diseases, followed by female (29) and male infertility (21), respectively. Leaves (47.3%) were the most commonly harvested plant parts and the most common growth forms harvested were the herbs (45.7%), followed by shrubs (30%). Sixty percent of plant material was obtained from the wild ecosystems. Herbal remedies were mostly prepared in the form of decoction (66.2%) and were taken mainly orally. Informant consensus about usages of medicinal plants ranged from 0.5 to 1.0 with an average value of 0.91. It can be concluded that medicinal plants have played and will continue to play major roles in the management of reproductive healthcare in the study area.

A novel spatially-explicit condition for the onset of waterborne diseases in complex environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mari, L.; Gatto, M.; Bertuzzo, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-12-01

In spatial models of waterborne infections the condition that all the local reproduction numbers be larger than one is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur. Here, to properly determine epidemic onset conditions, we examine the transition from stable to unstable of the disease-free equilibrium of a system of nonlinear differential equations characterizing the evolution of susceptible and infected individuals within their respective settlements, and pathogen concentration in their accessible environment. Two different network connectivity layers are assumed to link human settlements: hydrologic pathways serve as ecological corridors for pathogens, while human mobility acts as disease vehicle through susceptibles contracting the disease and asymptomatic infectives shedding bacteria at their temporary destinations. We show that an epidemic outbreak can be triggered if the dominant eigenvalue of a generalized reproduction matrix G0, suitably accounting for spatial distribution of human settlements, hydrological pathways for pathogen dispersal and pathogen redistribution mechanisms due to human mobility, is larger than unity. Matrix G0 and its dominant eigenvalue thus replace the usual reproduction number whenever spatial effects on disease propagation cannot be ignored. Conversely, our novel criterion decays into the standard onset condition based on local reproduction numbers in nonspatial settings. By analyzing realistic test cases we show that within a connected network system the disease can start even if all the local reproduction numbers are smaller than unity, or might not start even if all the local reproduction numbers are larger than unity. We also show that onset geography in complex environments is linked to the dominant eigenvector of matrix G0. Applications to cholera outbreaks in developing countries demonstrate that our approach can be successfully used for disease prediction and emergency management.

[Reproductive health survey of young adults in greater Santiago].

PubMed

Valenzuela, M S; Herold, J M; Morris, L; López, I M

1992-01-01

In 1988 a survey was carried out in order to obtain information on knowledge about reproduction, sexual activity, attitudes, and use of contraceptive methods among residents between 15 and 24 years of age in Greater Santiago. For this purpose, a multistage, self-weighted, non-replacement probability sample was chosen from the entire Santiago urban area. After 2,898 households were visited, 865 women and 800 men were selected and interviewed. For the interview, a questionnaire with 156 questions was developed; many questions were similar to those included in similar surveys in Brazil and Guatemala. The interviewers were professionals who had received prior training. Although 75% of the interviewees had attended sex education classes, they had erroneous ideas on various basic subjects. Sixty-nine percent of the women interviewed had undergone menarche before attending these classes. In addition, 35.4% of the women and 65.0% of the men had had sexual relations prior to marriage, and less than 20% had used any contraceptive method. More than 60% of the interviewees who had children had conceived them before marrying. These findings point up the necessity of offering sex education classes for children and young people, as well as facilitating their access to family planning services, in order to decrease the number of illegitimate and unwanted children that are born in Chile.

Deafness, genetics and dysgenics.

PubMed

Nunes, Rui

2006-01-01

It has been argued by some authors that our reaction to deaf parents who choose deafness for their children ought to be compassion, not condemnation. Although I agree with the reasoning proposed I suggest that this practice could be regarded as unethical. In this article, I shall use the term "dysgenic" as a culturally imposed genetic selection not to achieve any improvement of the human person but to select genetic traits that are commonly accepted as a disabling condition by the majority of the social matrix; in short as a handicap. As in eugenics, dysgenics can be achieved in a positive and a negative way. Positive dysgenics intends to increase the overall number of people with a particular genetic trait. Marriage between deaf people or conceiving deaf children through reproductive technology are examples of positive dysgenics. Negative dysgenics can be obtained through careful prenatal or pre-implantation selection and abortion (or discarding) of normal embryos and foetuses. Only deaf children would be allowed to live. If dysgenics is seen as a programmed genetic intervention that undesirably shapes the human condition--like deliberately creating deaf or dwarf people--the professionals involved in reproductive technologies should answer the question if this should be an accepted ethical practice because the basic human right to an open future is violated.

The risk of incomplete personal protection coverage in vector-borne disease.

PubMed

Miller, Ezer; Dushoff, Jonathan; Huppert, Amit

2016-02-01

Personal protection (PP) techniques, such as insecticide-treated nets, repellents and medications, include some of the most important and commonest ways used today to protect individuals from vector-borne infectious diseases. In this study, we explore the possibility that a PP intervention with partial coverage may have the counterintuitive effect of increasing disease burden at the population level, by increasing the biting intensity on the unprotected portion of the population. To this end, we have developed a dynamic model which incorporates parameters that describe the potential effects of PP on vector searching and biting behaviour and calculated its basic reproductive rate, R0. R0 is a well-established threshold of disease risk; the higher R0 is above unity, the stronger the disease onset intensity. When R0 is below unity, the disease is typically unable to persist. The model analysis revealed that partial coverage with popular PP techniques can realistically lead to a substantial increase in the reproductive number. An increase in R0 implies an increase in disease burden and difficulties in eradication efforts within certain parameter regimes. Our findings therefore stress the importance of studying vector behavioural patterns in response to PP interventions for future mitigation of vector-borne diseases. © 2016 The Author(s).

32 CFR 2103.41 - Reproduction controls.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Reproduction controls. 2103.41 Section 2103.41 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL REGULATIONS TO... Safeguarding § 2103.41 Reproduction controls. The Staff Secretary shall maintain records to show the number and...

32 CFR 2103.41 - Reproduction controls.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Reproduction controls. 2103.41 Section 2103.41 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL REGULATIONS TO... Safeguarding § 2103.41 Reproduction controls. The Staff Secretary shall maintain records to show the number and...

32 CFR 2103.41 - Reproduction controls.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Reproduction controls. 2103.41 Section 2103.41 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL REGULATIONS TO... Safeguarding § 2103.41 Reproduction controls. The Staff Secretary shall maintain records to show the number and...

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is the number one disease affecting US swine. It is caused by the PRRS virus (PRRSV) and is recognized as reproductive failure of sows and respiratory problems of piglets and growing pigs. This book chapter is part of the Office of International E...

Flower diversity and bee reproduction in an arid ecosystem

PubMed Central

Vázquez, Diego P.

2016-01-01

Background: Diverse flower communities are more stable in floral resource production along the flowering season, but the question about how the diversity and stability of resources affect pollinator reproduction remains open. High plant diversity could favor short foraging trips, which in turn would enhance bee fitness. In addition to plant diversity, greater temporal stability of floral resources in diverse communities could favor pollinator fitness because such communities are likely to occupy the phenological space more broadly, increasing floral availability for pollinators throughout the season. In addition, this potential effect of flower diversity on bee reproduction could be stronger for generalist pollinators because they can use a broader floral spectrum. Based on above arguments we predicted that pollinator reproduction would be positively correlated to flower diversity, and to temporal stability in flower production, and that this relationship would be stronger for the most generalized pollinator species. Materials and Methods: Using structural equation models, we evaluated the effect of these variables and other ecological factors on three estimates of bee reproduction (average number of brood cells per nest per site, total number of brood cells per site, and total number of nests per site), and whether such effects were modulated by bee generalization on floral resources. Results: Contrary to our expectations, flower diversity had no effect on bee reproduction, stability in flower production had a weakly negative effect on one of the bee reproductive variables, and the strength of the fitness-diversity relationship was unrelated to bee generalization. In contrast, elevation had a negative effect on bee reproduction, despite the narrow elevation range encompassed by our sites. Discussion: Flower diversity did not affect the reproduction of the solitary bees studied here. This result could stem from the context dependence of the diversity-stability relationship, given that elevation had a positive effect on flower diversity but a negative effect on bee reproduction. Although high temporal stability in flower production is expected to enhance pollinator reproduction, in our study it had a weakly negative—instead of positive—effect on the average number of brood cells per nest. Other environmental factors that vary with elevation could influence bee reproduction. Our study focused on a small group of closely-related bee species, which cautions against generalization of our findings to other groups of pollinators. More studies are clearly needed to assess the extent to which pollinator demography is influenced by the diversity of floral resources. PMID:27547556

Age difference between parents influences parity and number of sons.

PubMed

Kuna, Berenika; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Klimek, Magdalena; Nenko, Ilona; Jasienska, Grazyna

2018-05-01

Among couples, women usually prefer slightly older men, and men tend to choose much younger partners. Age difference between partners has been shown to influence their parity; however, results of previous studies are inconsistent. This study analyzed relationships between husband and wife age difference and their total number of children, and number of daughters and sons in a contemporary, rural Polish population. Demographic and reproductive data were collected from 384 postmenopausal women from rural Poland who were married only once. Regression models were used to evaluate the impact of the age gap between partners on total number of children and on number of daughters and sons. Women's age, age at marriage (as an indicator of reproductive value), and years of education were used in analyzes as potential confounders. There was an inverted U-shape association between parental age difference and number of children and also the number of sons. The highest number of children and sons was observed when men were approximately 6.5 years older than their wives. There was no significant relationship between parental age difference and number of daughters. Age difference between partners is important for reproductive success (with younger wives having higher reproductive potential) and is also related to number of sons. Older husbands might provide more resources for the family, thus facilitating production of well-nourished male offspring. Future research should evaluate not only number of children but also their biological condition, health, and lifetime achievements in relation to the age difference between their parents. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Towards an ontogenetic understanding of inflorescence diversity

PubMed Central

Claßen-Bockhoff, Regine; Bull-Hereñu, Kester

2013-01-01

Backgrounds and Aims Conceptual and terminological conflicts in inflorescence morphology indicate a lack of understanding of the phenotypic diversity of inflorescences. In this study, an ontogeny-based inflorescence concept is presented considering different meristem types and developmental pathways. By going back to the ontogenetic origin, diversity is reduced to a limited number of types and terms. Methods Species from 105 genera in 52 angiosperm families are investigated to identify their specific reproductive meristems and developmental pathways. Based on these studies, long-term experience with inflorescences and literature research, a conceptual framework for the understanding of inflorescences is presented. Key Results Ontogeny reveals that reproductive systems traditionally called inflorescences fall into three groups, i.e. ‘flowering shoot systems’ (FSS), ‘inflorescences’ sensu stricto and ‘floral units’ (FUs). Our concept is, first, based on the identification of reproductive meristem position and developmental potential. The FSS, defined as a seasonal growth unit, is used as a reference framework. As the FSS is a leafy shoot system bearing reproductive units, foliage and flowering sequence play an important role. Second, the identification of two different flower-producing meristems is essential. While ‘inflorescence meristems’ (IMs) share acropetal primordia production with vegetative meristems, ‘floral unit meristems’ (FUMs) resemble flower meristems in being indeterminate. IMs produce the basic inflorescence types, i.e. compound and simple racemes, panicles and botryoids. FUMs give rise to dense, often flower-like units (e.g. heads). They occur solitarily at the FSS or occupy flower positions in inflorescences, rendering the latter thyrses in the case of cymose branching. Conclusions The ontogenetic concept differs from all existing inflorescence concepts in being based on meristems and developmental processes. It includes clear terms and allows homology statements. Transitional forms are an explicit part of the concept, illustrating the ontogenetic potential for character transformation in evolution. PMID:23445936

Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission

PubMed Central

Perkins, T. Alex; Scott, Thomas W.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Smith, David L.

2013-01-01

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data. PMID:24348223

Effects of an Extended Cage-change Interval on Ammonia Levels and Reproduction in Mongolian Gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus).

PubMed

McCullagh, Elizabeth A; McCullagh, Peter; Klug, Achim; Leszczynski, Jori K; Fong, Derek L

2017-11-01

Prompted by the cage cleanliness of Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus), we evaluated a prolonged cage-change interval. We compared the effects of a 2-wk and 6-wk cage-change schedule on ammonia levels, temperature, humidity, and reproductive performance in breeding pairs housed in IVC. We hypothesized that ammonia levels would remain below our threshold for cage changing and that reproductive performance would not be affected. Although ammonia levels increased over time, they remained low (less than 5 ppm) over the 6-wk period. In addition, the 6-wk cage-change interval did not significantly influence reproductive parameters, such as average pup weaning weight, number of litters, and number of pups per litter. We conclude that an extended cage-change interval (6-wk) can be used for gerbils without significant increases in intracage ammonia levels or effects on reproduction.

Reproduction trends and the emergence of moral panic.

PubMed

Hanmer, J

1987-01-01

Are we witnessing a moral panic or a moral evaluation in the responses to the new reproductive technologies? Locating women in reproductive technology is a particularly powerful way into a discussion of values and consequences, intended or unintended. Twelve areas are isolated for discussion beginning with issues of definition and location: What is reproductive and genetic engineering? and How does human reproduction fit into bio-technological developments generally? Next issues are raised about how the new developments are being shaped ideologically and how they are being promoted by the state. A series of legal issues affecting women, men, children, embryos and fetuses follow. The focus then shifts to the way women are ideologically constructed: Why is there an assumption that woman = mother, and mother = heterosexual married or stable cohabiting woman?--and socially controlled: Why assume technological change in human reproductive processes means the basic subordination of women to men will not alter? The usefulness of the new technologies in relieving involuntary childlessness is then queried which leads on to a questioning of whether these developments are qualitatively different from other technologies used in human reproduction. Futuristic concerns such as the importance of the male pregnancy and the social consequences of fully medicalising human reproduction are raised. The last area to be considered is protest by women and suggested alternative approaches to increase the social visibility and recognition of the needs and interest of women in the current and potential use of the new medical and scientific developments.

Reproductive biology of the black coral Antipathella wollastoni (Cnidaria: Antipatharia) in the Azores (NE Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakka, Maria; Orejas, Covadonga; Sampaio, Iris; Monteiro, João; Parra, Hugo; Carreiro-Silva, Marina

2017-11-01

Antipathella wollastoni is an antipatharian species common to Macaronesia, occurring in depths between 20 and 1425 m. Despite its importance as a habitat-forming species, there is no information about its basic biology. The aim of the current study is to describe its reproductive strategy, gametogenic cycle and reproductive timing. Sampling was performed monthly on six tagged colonies during one year and specimens were histologically processed. A. wollastoni was found to be a gonochoric broadcast spawner. Gametogenesis took place within the primary transversal mesenteries, and followed an annual cycle. The reproductive season coincided with an increase in seawater temperature but spawning, inferred from the disappearance of gametes, likely happened after the sea surface temperature peak of the year (September 2009). Polyp fecundity ranged from 1 to 309 oocytes/polyp. A decrease in polyp fecundity was detected in samples at the higher pre-spawning maturity stage, indicating possible repetitive spawning or oocyte absorption. Intra-colonial comparisons revealed a longer duration of the reproductive cycle in the medial colony section, and a gradient of increased oocyte size towards the apical section, possibly due to intra-colonial differences in energy allocation between reproduction and other biological processes, or as a strategy against predation on gametes/larvae. Colony height was positively correlated with polyp fecundity indicating that the reproductive output increases with colony size.

A Malaria Transmission Model with Temperature-Dependent Incubation Period.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-05-01

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites and is transmitted among humans by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Climate factors have significant impact on both mosquito life cycle and parasite development. To consider the temperature sensitivity of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of malaria parasites, we formulate a delay differential equations model with a periodic time delay. We derive the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] and establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics in terms of [Formula: see text], that is, the unique disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]; and the model system admits a unique positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we parameterize the model with data from Maputo Province, Mozambique, and simulate the long-term behavior of solutions. The simulation result is consistent with the obtained analytic result. In addition, we find that using the time-averaged EIP may underestimate the basic reproduction ratio.

Initiatives: Nigeria. Traditional healers and PPFN in wedlock.

PubMed

Adejo, A A

1996-04-01

The Planned Parenthood Federation of Nigeria (PPFN) runs a program to integrate modern contraception into the practice of traditional medicine. Under the project, traditional healers, largely male, are trained on the ideals of nonprescriptive contraceptives such as condoms, the oral contraceptive pill, and foaming tablets, and how to offer such services to their clients. They participate in a two-week, highly participatory training course which confers a comprehensive introduction to basic and integrated reproductive health care service delivery, simple human anatomy and physiology, and human reproduction. The benefits of modern contraception are reviewed along with community mobilization and counseling. Simple communication techniques such as songs, drama, and role play are discussed. Information on maternal and child health and child survival, basic hygiene, nutrition, and AIDS is also incorporated into the course. 136 traditional healers have thus far been trained in three local government areas (LGAs) of Lagos State and 150 in six other LGAs in Benue State. The project has resulted in strong referral linkages between traditional healers, modern practitioners, and PPFN.

Influence of Reproductive Aging of the Cow on Luteal Function and Period 1 mRNA Expression

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In rodents, disruption of the circadian clock genes results in increased incidence of anovulation, irregular estrous cycles, decreased luteal function, and accelerated reproductive ageing. In cattle, reproductive ageing is associated with decreased numbers of follicles in the ovary, decreased lutea...

Y are you not pregnant: identification of Y chromosome segments in female cattle with decreased reproductive efficiency

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reproductive efficiency is of economic importance in commercial beef cattle production, as failure to achieve pregnancy reduces the number of calves marketed. Identification of genetic markers with predictive merit for reproductive success would facilitate early selection of females and avoid ineff...

Final State of Ecosystem Containing Grass, Sheep and Wolves with Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Mingfeng; Pan, Qiu-Hui; Wang, Shuang

This paper describes a cellular automata model containing movable wolves, sheep and reproducible grass. Each wolf or sheep is characterized by Penna bitstrings. In addition, we introduce the energy rule and the predator-prey mechanism for wolf and sheep. With considering age-structured, genetic strings, minimum reproduction age, cycle of the reproduction, number of offspring, we get three possible states of a predator-prey system: the coexisting one with predators and prey, the absorbing one with prey only, and the empty one where no animal survived. In this paper, we mainly discuss the effect of the number of poor genes, the energy supply (food), the minimum reproduction age, the reproductive cycle and the birth rate on the above three possible final states.

The impact of endometriosis on the outcome of Assisted Reproductive Technology.

PubMed

González-Comadran, Mireia; Schwarze, Juan Enrique; Zegers-Hochschild, Fernando; Souza, Maria do Carmo B; Carreras, Ramon; Checa, Miguel Ángel

2017-01-24

Endometriosis has been described to impair fertility through various mechanisms. However, studies evaluating the reproductive outcomes of women undergoing assisted reproductive technologies show controversial results. The aim of this study is to assess whether the reproductive outcome is impaired among women with endometriosis-associated infertility undergoing IVF. A retrospective cohort study was performed, including women undergoing IVF reported by the Red Latinoamericana de Reproduccion Asistida (Redlara) registry, between January 2010 and December 2012. The study group included women with endometriosis-associated infertility, and the control group women with tubal factor, endocrine disorders or unexplained infertility. Women above 40 years, severe male factor and premature ovarian failure were excluded. The reproductive outcomes of between both groups were compared. The primary outcome was live birth. Secondary outcomes included clinical pregnancy, miscarriage, number of oocytes retrieved and number of fertilized oocytes. Outcomes were assessed after the first fresh IVF cycle, and were adjusted for age and number of embryos transferred. A total of 22.416 women were included (3.583 with endometriosis and 18.833 in the control group). Mean age of patients in the endometriosis group and control group was 34.86 (3.47) and 34.61 (3.91) respectively, p = 0.000. The mean number of oocytes retrieved were 8.89 (6.23) and 9.86 (7.02) respectively, p = 0.000. No significant differences were observed between groups in terms of live birth (odds ratio (OR) 1.032, p = 0.556), clinical pregnancy (OR 1.044, p = 0.428) and miscarriage rates (OR 1.049, p = 0.623). Women with endometriosis had significantly lower number of oocytes retrieved (incidence risk ratio (IRR) 0.917, 95% CI 0.895-0.940), however, the number of fertilized oocytes did not differ among the two groups when adjusting for the number of oocytes retrieved (IRR 1.003, p = 0.794). An age-stratified analysis was performed, and no differences were observed in the reproductive outcomes between groups for women aged under 35 and 35 to 40. Reproductive outcomes among women undergoing IVF and diagnosed with endometriosis-associated infertility do not differ significantly from women without the disease. Although women with endometriosis generate fewer oocytes, fertilization rate is not impaired and the likelihood of achieving a live birth is also not affected.

Controlling birth: science, politics, and public policy.

PubMed

Russo, Nancy Felipe; Denious, Jean E

2005-03-01

Reproductive technologies raise a host of social and legal issues that challenge basic values and create intense controversy. If researchers wish to inform public policies related to reproductive technologies, they must understand how the scientific enterprise is being manipulated and research findings are being misrepresented to justify a particular social agenda and restrict access to contraception and abortion. To counter these distortions, scientists must defend the science advisory process, be involved in dissemination of their research findings beyond simply publication in scientific journals, and actively work to ensure that the findings are not misrepresented to the public.

[Quality criteria and indicators of women's health care].

PubMed

Mandú, Edir Nei Teixeira

2005-04-01

In this article, quality criteria and indicators of the basic care of the woman's health are presented with emphasis on the sexual and reproductive health that can be used in the management of supervision practices. In its elaboration, formulations regarding the evaluating practice, the managerial work, the full care to the woman's health (sexual and reproductive) are taken into consideration, besides proposals of the Health Ministry for monitoring the attention to this specific group. It focuses mainly on care and vigilance actions as to the women's health and on organizational and managerial aspects of such care.

Current trends of reproductive immunology practices in in vitro fertilization (IVF) - a first world survey using IVF-Worldwide.com.

PubMed

Kwak-Kim, Joanne; Han, Ae Ra; Gilman-Sachs, Alice; Fishel, Simon; Leong, Milton; Shoham, Zeev

2013-01-01

Reproductive immunology has evolved from basic research studies to clinical applications. In this study, we aim to investigate the actual application of reproductive immunology concepts and findings in clinical reproductive medicine such as recurrent pregnancy losses (RPL), repeated implantation failures (RIF), and failed in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. A web-based survey was performed on IVF-Worldwide.com. Collected data were analyzed by the computerized software. A significant proportion of physicians recommend thrombophilia workups (86%), parental genetic study (79%), and immunologic evaluations (69%) to IVF candidates who have a history of RPL or chemical pregnancy losses. IVF physicians consider an immunologic workup when patients have two (30%) or three (21%) failed IVF cycles. Assays for anticardiolipin antibody, lupus anticoagulant, thyroid peroxidase antibody, and antinuclear antibody are the four most commonly ordered immunologic tests for RPL (88, 84, 50, 47% each) and RIF (68, 63, 38, 38% each). Cellular immune evaluations, such as NK assay, human leukocyte antigen study, Th1/Th2 study or immunophenotype assay, are less commonly ordered. Reproductive immunology principles have been applied to the clinical management of RPL, RIF, and failed IVF cycles, and a significant proportion of IVF physicians acknowledge the importance of immunologic alterations with reproductive outcomes. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The stem cell factor (SCF)/c-KIT system in carcinogenesis of reproductive tissues: What does the hormonal regulation tell us?

PubMed

Figueira, Marília I; Cardoso, Henrique J; Correia, Sara; Maia, Cláudio J; Socorro, Sílvia

2017-10-01

The tyrosine kinase receptor c-KIT and its ligand, the stem cell factor (SCF) are expressed in several tissues of male and female reproductive tract, playing an important role in the regulation of basic biological processes. The activation of c-KIT by SCF controls, cell survival and death, cell differentiation and migration. Also, the SCF/c-KIT system has been implicated in carcinogenesis of reproductive tissues due to its altered expression pattern or overactivation in consequence of gain-of-functions mutations. Over the years, it has also been shown that hormones, the primary regulators of reproductive function and causative agents in the case of hormone-dependent cancers, are also able to control the SCF/c-KIT tissue levels. Therefore, it is liable to suppose that disturbed SCF/c-KIT expression driven by (de)regulated hormone actions can be a relevant step towards carcinogenesis. The present review describes the SCF and c-KIT expression in cancers of reproductive tissues, discussing the implications of the hormonal regulation of the SCF/c-KIT system in cancer development. Understanding the relationship between hormonal imbalance and the SCF/c-KIT expression and activity would be relevant in the context of novel therapeutic approaches in reproductive cancers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive Science for High School Students: A Shared Curriculum Model to Enhance Student Success.

PubMed

Castle, Megan; Cleveland, Charlotte; Gordon, Diana; Jones, Lynda; Zelinski, Mary; Winter, Patricia; Chang, Jeffrey; Senegar-Mitchell, Ericka; Coutifaris, Christos; Shuda, Jamie; Mainigi, Monica; Bartolomei, Marisa; Woodruff, Teresa K

2016-07-01

The lack of a national reproductive biology curriculum leads to critical knowledge gaps in today's high school students' comprehensive understanding of human biology. The Oncofertility Consortium developed curricula that address the basic and clinical aspects of reproductive biology. Launching this academy and creating easy-to-disseminate learning modules allowed other universities to implement similar programs across the country. The expansion of this informal, extracurricular academy on reproductive health from Northwestern University to the University of California, San Diego, Oregon Health & Science University, and the University of Pennsylvania magnifies the scope of scientific learning to students who might not otherwise be exposed to this important information. To assess the experience gained from this curriculum, we polled alumni from the four centers. Data were collected anonymously from de-identified users who elected to self-report on their experiences in their respective reproductive science academy. The alumni survey asked participants to report on their current academic standing, past experiences in the academy, and future academic and career goals. The results of this national survey suggest the national oncofertility academies had a lasting impact on participants and may have contributed to student persistence in scientific learning. © 2016 by the Society for the Study of Reproduction, Inc.

The place of reconstructive tubal surgery in the era of assisted reproductive techniques.

PubMed

Gomel, Victor

2015-12-01

Assisted reproductive techniques yield high rates of success for women with tubal factor infertility. Because they are potentially effective for all categories of infertility, for two decades, clinical and basic research in infertility has been focused on IVF techniques and outcomes, rather than developing surgical techniques or training infertility subspecialists in tubal microsurgery. Nonetheless, in comparison with IVF, reconstructive tubal surgery is inexpensive and offers multiple opportunities to attempt conception. Performing laparoscopic salpingostomy prior to IVF in women with good prognosis tubal disease may improve the outcome of subsequent IVF, while offering the potential for spontaneous conception. Tubo-tubal anastomosis for reversal of tubal ligation, performed either by a microsurgical technique through a mini-laparotomy or by laparoscopy, is preferable to IVF in younger women with no other fertility factors, because it offers potentially higher cumulative pregnancy rates. Surgery is the only alternative for women with tubal factor infertility who for personal or other reasons are unable to undergo assisted reproductive techniques. Tubal reconstructive surgery and assisted reproductive techniques must be considered complementary forms of treatment for women with tubal factor infertility, and training in tubal reconstructive surgery should be an integral part of subspecialty training in reproductive endocrinology and infertility. Copyright © 2015 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance.

PubMed

Mullon, Charles; Reuter, Max; Lehmann, Laurent

2014-01-01

Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.

The Evolution and Consequences of Sex-Specific Reproductive Variance

PubMed Central

Mullon, Charles; Reuter, Max; Lehmann, Laurent

2014-01-01

Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction. PMID:24172130

Mother and offspring fitness in an insect with maternal care: phenotypic trade-offs between egg number, egg mass and egg care

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Oviparous females have three main options to increase their reproductive success: investing into egg number, egg mass and/or egg care. Although allocating resources to either of these three components is known to shape offspring number and size, potential trade-offs among them may have key impacts on maternal and offspring fitness. Here, we tested the occurrence of phenotypic trade-offs between egg number, egg mass and maternal expenditure on egg care in the European earwig, Forficula auricularia, an insect with pre- and post-hatching forms of maternal care. In particular, we used a series of laboratory observations and experiments to investigate whether these three components non-additively influenced offspring weight and number at hatching, and whether they were associated with potential costs to females in terms of future reproduction. Results We found negative associations between egg number and mass as well as between egg number and maternal expenditure on egg care. However, these trade-offs could only be detected after statistically correcting for female weight at egg laying. Hatchling number was not determined by single or additive effects among the three life-history traits, but instead by pairwise interactions among them. In particular, offspring number was positively associated with the number of eggs only in clutches receiving high maternal care or consisting of heavy eggs, and negatively associated with mean egg mass in clutches receiving low care. In contrast, offspring weight was positively associated with egg mass only. Finally, maternal expenditure on egg care reduced their future reproduction, but this effect was only detected when mothers were experimentally isolated from their offspring at egg hatching. Conclusions Overall, our study reveals simultaneous trade-offs between the number, mass and care of eggs. It also demonstrates that these factors interact in their impact on offspring production, and that maternal expenditure on egg care possibly shapes female future reproduction. These findings emphasize that studying reproductive success requires consideration of phenotypic trade-offs between egg-number, egg mass and egg care in oviparous species. PMID:24913927

Reproductive toxicity of the endocrine disrupters vinclozolin and bisphenol A in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber (Latreille, 1804).

PubMed

Lemos, M F L; van Gestel, C A M; Soares, A M V M

2010-02-01

Endocrine Disruptor Compounds (EDCs) have been largely studied concerning their effects on vertebrates. Nevertheless, invertebrates as targets for these chemicals have been neglected and few studies are available. Specifically for edaphic invertebrates, data concerning the effects of EDCs is residual. Influences of EDCs on the reproduction systems of these organisms, with consequences at the population level, are expected but have not been confirmed. This work aimed to study the effects of bisphenol A (BPA) and vinclozolin (Vz) on the reproduction of the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber. Isopods were coupled and exposed to increasing concentrations of Vz and BPA and the females' reproductive cycle followed for 56d. Both compounds elicited reproductive toxicity. Vz and BPA decreased female reproductive allocation. Vz reduced pregnancy duration; increased the abortion percentage; decreased the number of pregnancies; and decreased the number of juveniles per female while BPA increased abortions at the lowest and highest test concentrations. The reproductive endpoints presented in here are indicative of the possible impact that this type of compounds might have on isopod population dynamics, which may eventually lead to population decline. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival and reproductive rate of mites in relation to resistance of their barn swallow hosts.

PubMed

Møller, A P

2000-08-01

Parasite resistance may act via a number of different mechanisms that regulate or control the survival and the reproductive rate of parasites. Observations and experiments were used to test for effects of host resistance on parasite survival and rate of reproduction. Natural levels of infestation of barn swallow Hirundo rustica nests by the tropical fowl mite Ornithonyssus bursa were positively related to brood size, inversely related to the length of the outermost tail feathers of male nest owners (a secondary sexual character) and affected by time of reproduction by the host. A mite inoculation experiment, in which 50 adult mites were introduced into nests during the laying period of the host, was used to test for differential survival and reproduction of mites as a function of host resistance. The relationship between survival and reproduction of parasites, male tail length and host resistance was investigated. There was a negative relationship between mite numbers per nest after fledging of nestlings and male tail length. This relationship was mainly caused by a reduction in the number of mites in the first and second nymph stage with increasing tail length of male hosts, implying a reduction in rate of reproduction of mites. The proportion of mites that had recently fed was inversely related to tail length of male hosts. The proportion of nymph stages was positively related to the proportion of mites that had recently had a blood meal. Parasite resistance of barn swallows to the tropical fowl mite thus appeared to act through increased mortality rate of adult and nymph stages of mites, and through reduced reproductive rates of mites on resistant hosts. This is the first study demonstating a direct relationship between fitness components of a parasite and the expression of a secondary sexual character of a host.

Maternal investment in reproduction and its consequences in leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Wallace, Bryan P; Sotherland, Paul R; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrian; Reina, Richard D; Spotila, James R; Paladino, Frank V

2007-05-01

Maternal investment in reproduction by oviparous non-avian reptiles is usually limited to pre-ovipositional allocations to the number and size of eggs and clutches, thus making these species good subjects for testing hypotheses of reproductive optimality models. Because leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) stand out among oviparous amniotes by having the highest clutch frequency and producing the largest mass of eggs per reproductive season, we quantified maternal investment of 146 female leatherbacks over four nesting seasons (2001-2004) and found high inter- and intra-female variation in several reproductive characteristics. Estimated clutch frequency [coefficient of variation (CV) = 31%] and clutch size (CV = 26%) varied more among females than did egg mass (CV = 9%) and hatchling mass (CV = 7%). Moreover, clutch size had an approximately threefold higher effect on clutch mass than did egg mass. These results generally support predictions of reproductive optimality models in which species that lay several, large clutches per reproductive season should exhibit low variation in egg size and instead maximize egg number (clutch frequency and/or size). The number of hatchlings emerging per nest was positively correlated with clutch size, but fraction of eggs in a clutch yielding hatchlings (emergence success) was not correlated with clutch size and varied highly among females. In addition, seasonal fecundity and seasonal hatchling production increased with the frequency and the size of clutches (in order of effect size). Our results demonstrate that female leatherbacks exhibit high phenotypic variation in reproductive traits, possibly in response to environmental variability and/or resulting from genotypic variability within the population. Furthermore, high seasonal and lifetime fecundity of leatherbacks probably reflect compensation for high and unpredictable mortality during early life history stages in this species.

[Intervention effects of promoting the use of contraceptives in migrant population working in factory].

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaomei; Ren, Shanshan; Hou, Liyan; He, Dian; Pang, Cheng; Cheng, Yimin

2011-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention program on promoting the use of contraceptives in migrant population working in factories, and to compare the difference of results between the basic intervention mode and the comprehensive intervention mode. This was an epidemiologic intervention study carried out in each 2 factories in Shenzhen and Dongguan among migrant workers by comparing the effectiveness of a baseline survey and a end-line survey. The basic intervention mode was composed of spreading contraceptives and reproductive health information, conducting education and communication and providing references to access free services from family planning clinics (IEC). The comprehensive intervention mode provided more services on face to face counseling and distributing free contraceptives. The demographic characteristics of subjects before and after surveys were comparable. Whether in the basic group or comprehensive mode group, the awareness of contraceptive/reproductive health knowledge was increased significantly after intervention (P = 0.000), and the pass rate was higher in the comprehensive intervention group (P = 0.000). The self-reported most frequently used contraceptives was condoms. The proportion of using condoms and purchasing condoms was increased after intervention (P = 0.000) from 69.7% and 67.7% before intervention to 84.9% and 90.2% after basic intervention and 87.1% and 95.1% after comprehensive intervention. The proportion of using contraceptives every time was increased from 35.7% before intervention to 38.1% after basic intervention (P = 0.018) and to 42.9% after comprehensive intervention (P = 0.000). Intervention measures based on implementing in factories were effective in promoting contraception among migrant workers, and the integration of counseling and free contraceptive services with IEC was better. Carrying on and extending this kind of intervention measures to other migrant population in similar conditions is suggested.

REPRODUCTIVE AND DEVELOPMENTAL EFFECTS OF CONTAMINANTS IN OVIPAROUS VERTEBRATES: WORKSHOP SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

EPA Science Inventory

The workshop was successful in advancing the state of the science, as well as in bringing together a broad base of experience and viewpoints to advance integrations of approaches to understanding basic chemical and physiological processes, toxicological effects and mechanisms, ec...

Listening to Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeGolyer, John H.; Misik, Martha C.

Generally, teenage pregnancy is considered a detriment to society. Louisiana has the third highest rate of adolescent pregnancy of any state in the nation. The Louisiana Sex Education in Public Schools Act (1979) effectively prohibits information about the human reproductive system until the seventh grade. The basic "Choices and Changes" program…

Regeneration

Treesearch

George A. Schier; Wayne D. Shepperd; John R. Jones

1985-01-01

There are basically two approaches to regenerating aspen stands-sexual reproduction using seed, or vegetative regeneration by root suckering. In the West, root suckering is the most practical method. The advantage of having an existing, well established root system capable of producing numerous root suckers easily outweighs natural or artificial reforestation in the...

Are High School Students Prepared for a Brave New World?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blake, Deborah

1984-01-01

Describes Notre Dame High School's (California) integrated bioethics course, which contains units on basic concepts of goals, rights, and duty ethics; reproductive technologies; genetic technologies; death and dying; behavior modification; and experiments with human subjects. Provides a bibliography of student and teacher materials. (DMM)

The Reproductive Morphology and Physiological Age Grading of the Female Salvinia Weevil, Cyrtobagous salviniae Calder and Sands

PubMed Central

Eisenberg, Lee; Johnson, Seth; Grodowitz, Michael J

2018-01-01

The morphology of the female Cyrtobagous salviniae Calder and Sands reproductive system is similar to other weevil species being meroistic and telotrophic. The reproductive system is composed of 2 ovaries each containing 2 ovarioles where the follicles mature. A physiological age grading system was developed where the continuum of ovarium development was divided into 2 nulliparous and 3 parous classes. This was based on the differentiation of the ovarioles, presence, and appearance of follicular relics, cuticle hardness/coloration, and fat body quantity/appearance. High correlation occurred between the parous classes and number of eggs produced where the P3 class had over 9-fold higher number of eggs in comparison with the P1 class. Mean number of eggs produced for each parous class was significantly different, however, overlap occurred. Such a system enables a determination of the past, present, and future reproductive status of field populations and mass-rearing colonies. PMID:29371784

Modelling and Optimal Control of Typhoid Fever Disease with Cost-Effective Strategies.

PubMed

Tilahun, Getachew Teshome; Makinde, Oluwole Daniel; Malonza, David

2017-01-01

We propose and analyze a compartmental nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the typhoid fever outbreak and optimal control strategies in a community with varying population. The model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations and the basic reproductive number that represents the epidemic indicator is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined. The model exhibits a forward transcritical bifurcation and the sensitivity analysis is performed. The optimal control problem is designed by applying Pontryagin maximum principle with three control strategies, namely, the prevention strategy through sanitation, proper hygiene, and vaccination; the treatment strategy through application of appropriate medicine; and the screening of the carriers. The cost functional accounts for the cost involved in prevention, screening, and treatment together with the total number of the infected persons averted. Numerical results for the typhoid outbreak dynamics and its optimal control revealed that a combination of prevention and treatment is the best cost-effective strategy to eradicate the disease.

Linear models for assessing mechanisms of sperm competition: the trouble with transformations.

PubMed

Eggert, Anne-Katrin; Reinhardt, Klaus; Sakaluk, Scott K

2003-01-01

Although sperm competition is a pervasive selective force shaping the reproductive tactics of males, the mechanisms underlying different patterns of sperm precedence remain obscure. Parker et al. (1990) developed a series of linear models designed to identify two of the more basic mechanisms: sperm lotteries and sperm displacement; the models can be tested experimentally by manipulating the relative numbers of sperm transferred by rival males and determining the paternity of offspring. Here we show that tests of the model derived for sperm lotteries can result in misleading inferences about the underlying mechanism of sperm precedence because the required inverse transformations may lead to a violation of fundamental assumptions of linear regression. We show that this problem can be remedied by reformulating the model using the actual numbers of offspring sired by each male, and log-transforming both sides of the resultant equation. Reassessment of data from a previous study (Sakaluk and Eggert 1996) using the corrected version of the model revealed that we should not have excluded a simple sperm lottery as a possible mechanism of sperm competition in decorated crickets, Gryllodes sigillatus.

Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

PubMed

Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

2011-01-01

Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

Deterministic analysis of extrinsic and intrinsic noise in an epidemiological model.

PubMed

Bayati, Basil S

2016-05-01

We couple a stochastic collocation method with an analytical expansion of the canonical epidemiological master equation to analyze the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic noise. It is shown that depending on the distribution of the extrinsic noise, the master equation yields quantitatively different results compared to using the expectation of the distribution for the stochastic parameter. This difference is incident to the nonlinear terms in the master equation, and we show that the deviation away from the expectation of the extrinsic noise scales nonlinearly with the variance of the distribution. The method presented here converges linearly with respect to the number of particles in the system and exponentially with respect to the order of the polynomials used in the stochastic collocation calculation. This makes the method presented here more accurate than standard Monte Carlo methods, which suffer from slow, nonmonotonic convergence. In epidemiological terms, the results show that extrinsic fluctuations should be taken into account since they effect the speed of disease breakouts and that the gamma distribution should be used to model the basic reproductive number.

Optimal control issues in plant disease with host demographic factor and botanical fungicides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggriani, N.; Mardiyah, M.; Istifadah, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we discuss a mathematical model of plant disease with the effect of fungicide. We assume that the fungicide is given as a preventive treatment to infectious plants. The model is constructed based on the development of the disease in which the monomolecular is monocyclic. We show the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) ℛ0 of the plant disease transmission. The BRN is computed from the largest eigenvalue of the next generation matrix of the model. The result shows that in the region where ℛ0 greater than one there is a single stable endemic equilibrium. However, in the region where ℛ0 less than one this endemic equilibrium becomes unstable. The dynamics of the model is highly sensitive to changes in contact rate and infectious period. We also discuss the optimal control of the infected plant host by considering a preventive treatment aimed at reducing the infected host plant. The obtaining optimal control shows that it can reduce the number of infected hosts compared to that without control. Some numerical simulations are also given to illustrate our analytical results.

Spreading and vanishing in a West Nile virus model with expanding fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboush, Abdelrazig K.; Lin, ZhiGui; Zhang, MengYun

2017-05-01

In this paper, we study a simplified version of a West Nile virus model discussed by Lewis et al. [28], which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number $R_0$ for the non-spatial epidemic model is defined and a threshold parameter $R_0 ^D$ for the corresponding problem with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced. We consider a free boundary problem with coupled system, which describes the diffusion of birds by a PDE and the movement of mosquitoes by a ODE. The risk index $R_0^F (t)$ associated with the disease in spatial setting is represented. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to eradicate or to spread are given. The asymptotic behavior of the solution to system when the spreading occurs are considered. It is shown that the initial number of infected populations, the diffusion rate of birds and the length of initial habitat exhibit important impacts on the vanishing or spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.

Reproductive life of Bhoksa women.

PubMed

Garg, S K; Tyagi, D; Sankhyan, A R

1981-01-01

The paper discusses the reproductive life of 111 ever-married Bhoksa women. The mean age at marriage for women of all ages among Bhoksas, like other tribal populations, is high, unlike the caste populations. The mean ages at first birth of the pooled sample and of the completed fertility cases suggest late and early marriages of the older and younger generations. The maximum number of marriages occur between 15 and 19 years and of first births between 16 and 20 years. Percentage of reproductive wastage is high in both the lower and higher age groups. Young mothers with low birth orders and older mothers with high birth orders display a high frequency of reproductive wastage. Evidently, both birth order and the age of the mother have effects on reproductive wastage. Average number of children ever born (including stillbirth but not abortion or miscarriage) per mother of all ages is the highest among Bhoksas of all the studied ethnic groups of India. The Bhoksa, like caste populations, show a high number of children ever born per mother of completed fertility. Quite a high masculinity in the secondary sex ratio, like other mongoloid population is noticed. The contribution of mortality component to the Total Index of Opportunity for Selection is more than that of the fertility component. Bhoksas conform to the general low range of net reproductive index, which is however greater than unity, suggesting that they are in a growth stage.

The study of multiphase flow control during odor reproduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Dehan; Yu, Hao; Fan, Danjun; He, Meiqiu

2014-04-01

Odor reproduction, is the use of the chemical composition of the basic components of odor recipe, according to a certain proportion, to control the flow of the various components, which make them sufficiently blended to achieve reproduction. In this paper, reproducing method is to find the corresponding liquid flavor, and then based on chemical flavor recipes, using flowmeters to control the chemical composition of the liquid flavor ratio. In the proportional control, the liquid chemical composition is very likely to be volatile, so that the proportional control is multiphase flow control. Measurement of the flow control will directly affect the odor reproducible results. Using electronic nose to obtain reproducible odor data, and then use pattern recognition algorithm to determine reproducible results. The experimental results can be achieved on the process of odor components multiphase flow proportional control parameter adjustment.

48 CFR 204.7003 - Basic PII number.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Basic PII number. 204.7003... OF DEFENSE GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS Uniform Procurement Instrument Identification Numbers 204.7003 Basic PII number. (a) Elements of a number. The number consists of 13 alpha-numeric characters...

48 CFR 204.7003 - Basic PII number.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Basic PII number. 204.7003... OF DEFENSE GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS Uniform Procurement Instrument Identification Numbers 204.7003 Basic PII number. (a) Elements of a number. The number consists of 13 alpha-numeric characters...

CENH3-GFP: a visual marker for gametophytic and somatic ploidy determination in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

De Storme, Nico; Keçeli, Burcu Nur; Zamariola, Linda; Angenon, Geert; Geelen, Danny

2016-01-05

The in vivo determination of the cell-specific chromosome number provides a valuable tool in several aspects of plant research. However, current techniques to determine the endosystemic ploidy level do not allow non-destructive, cell-specific chromosome quantification. Particularly in the gametophytic cell lineages, which are physically encapsulated in the reproductive organ structures, direct in vivo ploidy determination has been proven very challenging. Using Arabidopsis thaliana as a model, we here assess the applicability of recombinant CENH3-GFP reporters for the labeling of the cell's chromocenters and for the monitoring of the gametophytic and somatic chromosome number in vivo. By modulating expression of a CENH3-GFP reporter cassette using different promoters, we isolated two reporter lines that allow for a clear and highly specific labeling of centromeric chromosome regions in somatic and gametophytic cells respectively. Using polyploid plant series and reproductive mutants, we demonstrate that the pWOX2-CENH3-GFP recombinant fusion protein allows for the determination of the gametophytic chromosome number in both male and female gametophytic cells, and additionally labels centromeric regions in early embryo development. Somatic centromere labeling through p35S-CENH3-GFP shows a maximum of ten centromeric dots in young dividing tissues, reflecting the diploid chromosome number (2x = 10), and reveals a progressive decrease in GFP foci frequency throughout plant development. Moreover, using chemical and genetic induction of endomitosis, we demonstrate that CENH3-mediated chromosome labeling provides an easy and valuable tool for the detection and characterization of endomitotic polyploidization events. This study demonstrates that the introgression of the pWOX2-CENH3-GFP reporter construct in Arabidopsis thaliana provides an easy and reliable methodology for determining the chromosome number in developing male and female gametes, and during early embryo development. Somatically expressed CENH3-GFP reporters, on the other hand, constitute a valuable tool to quickly determine the basic somatic ploidy level in young seedlings at the individual cell level and to detect and to quantify endomitotic polyploidization events in a non-destructive, microscopy-based manner.

A computational model linking oocyte growth and spawning to the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis in fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas)

EPA Science Inventory

Reproduction is vital to the survival of all living organisms, and reproductive toxicity is an important outcome in determining the ecological risks of chemicals in the environment. To evaluate reproductive toxicity, fathead minnow fecundity, as measured by the average number of...

The disadvantages of mating outside home: How breeding in captivity affects the reproductive success of seahorses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faleiro, Filipa; Narciso, Luís

2013-04-01

In captivity, husbandry conditions are distinct from those experienced by fish in the wild and may have a significant effect on reproductive success. This study evaluates the effect of supportive breeding (i.e., breeding animals in captivity using wild parents) on some quantitative and qualitative aspects of the reproductive success of the long-snouted seahorse, Hippocampus guttulatus. Wild and captive broods were compared in terms of juvenile number, size, condition and fatty acid profile at birth. Reproductive investment and breeding success of H. guttulatus decreased considerably in captivity. Juveniles from captive broods were fewer in number, smaller, generally thinner and with lower fatty acid contents (per juvenile) than those from wild broods, although their fatty acid composition (μg mg- 1 DW or %TFA) was not significantly affected. Although not greatly encouraging, the poor reproductive performance of captive seahorses should not, however, efface the potential of supportive breeding as a tool for seahorse conservation. Enhanced conditions and long-term breeding in captivity will allow to improve the reproductive success of the species and the quality of the fingerlings.

Adaptive reproduction schedule as a cause of worker policing in social hymenoptera: a dynamic game analysis.

PubMed

Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Tsuji, Kazuki

2009-06-01

Evolutionary theories predict conflicts over sex allocation, male parentage, and reproductive allocation in hymenopteran societies. However, no theory to date has considered the evolution when a colony faces these three conflicts simultaneously. We tackled this issue by developing a dynamic game model, focusing especially on worker policing. Whereas a Nash equilibrium predicts male parentage patterns that are basically the same as those of relatedness-based worker-policing theory (queen multiple mating impedes worker reproduction), we also show the potential for worker policing under queen single mating. Worker policing will depend on the stage of colony growth that is caused by interaction with reproductive allocation conflict or a trade-off between current and future reproduction. Male production at an early stage greatly hinders the growth of the work force and undermines future inclusive fitness of colony members, leading to worker policing at the ergonomic stage. This new mechanism can explain much broader ranges of existing worker-policing behavior than that predicted from relatedness. Predictions differ in many respects from those of models assuming operation of only one or two of the three conflicts, suggesting the importance of interactions among conflicts.

Interplay of rights, technology, and services explored.

PubMed

1999-09-01

Recent developments in the field of reproductive health and family planning have featured key intersections among technology, services, and rights. In May 1999, the Population Council hosted a two-day meeting on rights, technology, and services in reproductive health to examine more deeply the philosophical underpinnings of the council's work. In many countries, planning pregnancies and exercising reproductive rights have been central tenets of feminist thinking and activism for decades. In other settings, fertility-regulation technologies were introduced primarily for the purpose of controlling population growth rather than facilitating the exercise of individual rights. Much of the critique of population programs has centered on violations of rights and the need to protect women in the process of testing and delivering reproductive technologies. Despite a diversity of opinions on the ethics and appropriateness of specific technologies, there is a growing consensus that women and men have a basic right to control their bodies, reproduction, and sexuality. In many places, however, people have faced barriers as they attempt to exercise these rights. Some obstacles are primarily economic, while others are physical or institutional in nature. During the meeting, participants raised many additional questions, and their exploration of these questions highlighted the ways that rights, technology, and service influence each other.

Hypoxia Treatment of Callosobruchus maculatus Females and Its Effects on Reproductive Output and Development of Progeny Following Exposure.

PubMed

Yan, Yan; Williams, Scott B; Baributsa, Dieudonne; Murdock, Larry L

2016-06-17

Modified atmospheres present a residue-free alternative to fumigants for controlling postharvest pests of grain during storage. How sub-lethal applications of this method affects the reproductive fitness of target pests, however, is still not fully understood. We examined how low levels of ambient oxygen influence the reproduction of the female cowpea bruchid (Callosobruchus maculatus), a pest of cowpea. We used three low-oxygen atmospheres-2%, 5% and 10% (v/v) oxygen-and observed their effects on: (1) the number of eggs laid by bruchids compared to insects held in normoxic (~20% oxygen) conditions; (2) the total number of eggs laid; and (3) the number of progeny that reached maturity. Low oxygen did not significantly affect the number of eggs laid during 48 or 72 h of exposure, but 2% and 5% oxygen did negatively affected total egg production. Increasing the exposure time from 48 to 72 h further depressed lifetime reproductive output. Maternal and egg exposure to hypoxia reduced the number of progeny that reached adulthood. Lower adult emergence was observed from eggs laid under low oxygen and longer exposure times. These data demonstrate that hermetic conditions depress the egg-laying behavior of cowpea bruchids and the successful development of their progeny.

Hypoxia Treatment of Callosobruchus maculatus Females and Its Effects on Reproductive Output and Development of Progeny Following Exposure

PubMed Central

Yan, Yan; Williams, Scott B.; Baributsa, Dieudonne; Murdock, Larry L.

2016-01-01

Modified atmospheres present a residue-free alternative to fumigants for controlling postharvest pests of grain during storage. How sub-lethal applications of this method affects the reproductive fitness of target pests, however, is still not fully understood. We examined how low levels of ambient oxygen influence the reproduction of the female cowpea bruchid (Callosobruchus maculatus), a pest of cowpea. We used three low-oxygen atmospheres—2%, 5% and 10% (v/v) oxygen—and observed their effects on: (1) the number of eggs laid by bruchids compared to insects held in normoxic (~20% oxygen) conditions; (2) the total number of eggs laid; and (3) the number of progeny that reached maturity. Low oxygen did not significantly affect the number of eggs laid during 48 or 72 h of exposure, but 2% and 5% oxygen did negatively affected total egg production. Increasing the exposure time from 48 to 72 h further depressed lifetime reproductive output. Maternal and egg exposure to hypoxia reduced the number of progeny that reached adulthood. Lower adult emergence was observed from eggs laid under low oxygen and longer exposure times. These data demonstrate that hermetic conditions depress the egg-laying behavior of cowpea bruchids and the successful development of their progeny. PMID:27322332

Relationship between Dietary Fat Intake, Its Major Food Sources and Assisted Reproduction Parameters

PubMed Central

Kazemi, Ashraf; Ramezanzadeh, Fatemeh; Nasr-Esfahani, Mohammad Hosein

2014-01-01

Background High dietary fat consumption may alter oocyte development and embryonic development. This prospective study was conducted to determine the relation between dietary fat consumption level, its food sources and the assisted reproduction parameters. Methods A prospective study was conducted on 240 infertile women. In assisted reproduction treatment cycle, fat consumption and major food sources over the previous three months were identified. The number of retrieved oocytes, metaphase ΙΙ stage oocytes numbers, fertilization rate, embryo quality and clinical pregnancy rate were also determined. The data were analyzed using multiple regression, binary logistic regression, chi-square and t-test. The p-value of less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results Total fat intake adjusted for age, body mass index, physical activity and etiology of infertility was positively associated with the number of retrieved oocytes and inversely associated with the high embryo quality rate. An inverse association was observed between sausage and turkey ham intake and the number of retrieved oocytes. Also, oil intake level had an inverse association with good cleavage rate. Conclusion The results revealed that higher levels of fat consumption tend to increase the number of retrieved oocytes and were adversely related to embryonic development. Among food sources of fat, vegetable oil, sausage and turkey ham intake may adversely affect assisted reproduction parameters. PMID:25473630

High vaccination coverage is associated with low epidemic level of seasonal influenza in elementary schools: an observational study in Matsumoto City, Japan.

PubMed

Uchida, Mitsuo; Kaneko, Minoru; Hidaka, Yoshihiko; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Honda, Takayuki; Takeuchi, Shouhei; Saito, Masaya; Kawa, Shigeyuki

2018-03-13

Influenza virus transmission may be prevented by infection control measures, including vaccination, wearing a mask, gargling with water, and hand washing. It is unclear, however, whether these measures affect influenza epidemics in school settings. A prospective epidemiological survey in all public elementary schools in Matsumoto City, Japan, during the 2014/2015 season evaluated the number of diagnosed patients in each school and calculated the reproduction number of schoolchildren. At the end of the prospective survey, a cross-sectional survey evaluated the implementation of infection control measures in these schools. Both results were combined and associations among infection control measures including vaccination, mask wearing, hand washing, water gargling, and epidemic level were evaluated. Of the 13,217 schoolchildren in 29 schools, 2548 were diagnosed with seasonal influenza. A significant negative association was observed between vaccination coverage and reproduction number at each school, but not between other infection control measures and the reproduction number. A regression curve with exponential function was most predictive. At 0% vaccination, the reproduction number was estimated to be 1.39. These findings provide evidence that high vaccination coverage was associated with reduced epidemic levels in schools and suggest the need for increased vaccination of schoolchildren.

On-site comprehensive curriculum to teach reproductive health to female adolescents in Kenya.

PubMed

Gaughran, Margaret; Asgary, Ramin

2014-04-01

Rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and unplanned pregnancy are high in Kenya, and limited reproductive health education exists in schools. We designed and implemented a 6-week reproductive health curriculum in Laikipia District, Kenya, in 2011, which included didactic sessions, educational games, and open discussions. We applied a mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this curriculum including a comprehensive 35-item survey to assess pre- and post-training knowledge, attitudes, and practices of female teenagers regarding STIs/HIV and family planning using paired t-test as well as complementary focus groups (n=42) and individual interviews (n=20). Average age for 42 female teenagers was 16.5 (± 1.31) years. Pre-test questionnaires revealed lack of knowledge about different types of STIs, specifically chlamydia, but adequate knowledge of basic contraception including abstinence and condom use. By the conclusion of the study, we observed improvement in following educational domains: general knowledge of HIV/AIDS (85% ± 7.5% to 94% ± 5.6%) (p<0.001); general knowledge of teen pregnancy and STIs (57% ± 19% to 82% ± 13%) (p<0.001); and overall scores of knowledge, attitude, and self-efficacy (81% ± 6.6% to 90% ± 5%) (p<0.001). Focus group discussions, however, revealed persistent misconceptions and knowledge gaps with themes regarding HIV transmission risk factors, perceived difficulty negotiating condom use, masturbation and its perceived consequences, and issues surrounding female circumcision. Important misconceptions and gaps in reproductive practices were identified and addressed using a mixed methods approach. Despite prior basic knowledge and positive attitudes on STI prevention and family planning, complementary teaching approaches were instrumental in improving overall knowledge of STIs other than HIV as well as family planning. The curriculum was feasible, well received, and achieved its educational goals.

Unpredictable food supply modifies costs of reproduction and hampers individual optimization.

PubMed

Török, János; Hegyi, Gergely; Tóth, László; Könczey, Réka

2004-11-01

Investment into the current reproductive attempt is thought to be at the expense of survival and/or future reproduction. Individuals are therefore expected to adjust their decisions to their physiological state and predictable aspects of environmental quality. The main predictions of the individual optimization hypothesis for bird clutch sizes are: (1) an increase in the number of recruits with an increasing number of eggs in natural broods, with no corresponding impairment of parental survival or future reproduction, and (2) a decrease in the fitness of parents in response to both negative and positive brood size manipulation, as a result of a low number of recruits, poor future reproduction of parents, or both. We analysed environmental influences on costs and optimization of reproduction on 6 years of natural and experimentally manipulated broods in a Central European population of the collared flycatcher. Based on dramatic differences in caterpillar availability, we classified breeding seasons as average and rich food years. The categorization was substantiated by the majority of present and future fitness components of adults and offspring. Neither observational nor experimental data supported the individual optimization hypothesis, in contrast to a Scandinavian population of the species. The quality of fledglings deteriorated, and the number of recruits did not increase with natural clutch size. Manipulation revealed significant costs of reproduction to female parents in terms of future reproductive potential. However, the influence of manipulation on recruitment was linear, with no significant polynomial effect. The number of recruits increased with manipulation in rich food years and tended to decrease in average years, so control broods did not recruit more young than manipulated broods in any of the year types. This indicates that females did not optimize their clutch size, and that they generally laid fewer eggs than optimal in rich food years. Mean yearly clutch size did not follow food availability, which suggests that females cannot predict food supply of the brood-rearing period at the beginning of the season. This lack of information on future food conditions seems to prevent them from accurately estimating their optimal clutch size for each season. Our results suggest that individual optimization may not be a general pattern even within a species, and alternative mechanisms are needed to explain clutch size variation.

Differential Regulation of Aromatase Isoforms and Tissue Responses to Environmental Chemicals in Fish

EPA Science Inventory

As in mammals, aromatase plays a basic role in fish reproduction. Unlike most mammals, with only one form of aromatase, fish have two distinct forms. One isoform, P450aromA, predominates in ovaries. Ovarian aromatase activity controls circulating levels of estrogens and is critic...

Avian life history profiles for use in the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)

EPA Science Inventory

The Markov Chain nest productivity model, or MCnest, quantitatively estimates the effects of pesticides or other toxic chemicals on annual reproductive success of avian species (Bennett and Etterson 2013, Etterson and Bennett 2013). The Basic Version of MCnest was developed as a...

A "View from Nowhen" on Time Perception Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riemer, Martin; Trojan, Jorg; Kleinbohl, Dieter; Holzl, Rupert

2012-01-01

Systematic errors in time reproduction tasks have been interpreted as a misperception of time and therefore seem to contradict basic assumptions of pacemaker-accumulator models. Here we propose an alternative explanation of this phenomenon based on methodological constraints regarding the direction of time, which cannot be manipulated in…

The Problematic Promotion of Abstinence: An Overview of Sex Respect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodson, Patricia; Edmundson, Elizabeth

1994-01-01

Presents the results of a content evaluation of the abstinence-based sexuality education curriculum, "Sex Respect," focusing on the curriculum's message and presentation. Results indicate Sex Respect omits basic content and includes misinformation, especially in the areas of human sexual response and reproductive health, and needs revision.…

Impact of environmental tobacco smoke exposure in women on oxidative stress in the antral follicle and assisted reproduction outcomes.

PubMed

Kazemi, Ashraf; Ramezanzadeh, Fatemeh; Esfahani, Mohammad Hosein Nasr; Saboor-Yaraghi, Ali Akbar; Nejat, Saharnaz; Rahimi-Foroshani, Abbas

2013-08-01

Cigarette smoke contains many oxidants and may alter the human reproduction by inducing oxidative stress (OS) in both active and passive smokers. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on oxidative stress in the follicular fluid and the assisted reproduction outcomes. An observational prospective study was carried out on 236 infertile women, who underwent assisted reproduction cycles. The ETS exposure was assessed using self-reported ETS exposure and the cotinine level in follicular fluid. To evaluate the OS in follicular fluid (FF) malon-di-aldehyde (MDA) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) were measured. The number of retrieved oocytes, rate of metaphase II stage oocytes, fertilization rate, good cleavage rate, and no-fragmented embryo rate were considered as the assisted reproduction outcomes. The results were adjusted for age, body mass index, duration, and etiology of infertility; P-values less than 0.05 were considered significant. The MDA and TAC levels in FF were not related to the self-report number of the weekly ETS exposure and cotinine levels in FF. Also, the number of retrieved oocytes, MII stage oocytes, fertilization rate, good cleavage rate, and no-fragmented embryo rate were not related to the cotinine level and weekly ETS exposure. However, in women whose cotinine levels in FF were lower and equal/above 3.5 ng/ml, the number of retrieved oocytes was higher (12.63 ± .71 vs. 9.28 ± 1.11, P = 0.01). The relationship between the MDA level and cleavage rate (Beta = -18.5, confidence interval-34.9 and-2.1, P < 0.05) was negatively significant and the relationship between the MII stage rate with TAC (Beta = 0.02, confidence interval 0.01 and 0.04, P < 0.05) was positively significant. The ETS exposure may alter the assisted reproduction success by influencing the number of available oocytes. Although, the OS in a follicular environment affect the ability of oocytes to reach the specific cleavage stages at appropriate time intervals, it does not mediate poor-assisted reproduction outcomes due to ETS exposure.

Impact of environmental tobacco smoke exposure in women on oxidative stress in the antral follicle and assisted reproduction outcomes

PubMed Central

Kazemi, Ashraf; Ramezanzadeh, Fatemeh; Esfahani, Mohammad Hosein Nasr; Saboor-Yaraghi, Ali Akbar; Nejat, Saharnaz; Rahimi-Foroshani, Abbas

2013-01-01

Background: Cigarette smoke contains many oxidants and may alter the human reproduction by inducing oxidative stress (OS) in both active and passive smokers. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on oxidative stress in the follicular fluid and the assisted reproduction outcomes. Materials and Methods: An observational prospective study was carried out on 236 infertile women, who underwent assisted reproduction cycles. The ETS exposure was assessed using self-reported ETS exposure and the cotinine level in follicular fluid. To evaluate the OS in follicular fluid (FF) malon-di-aldehyde (MDA) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) were measured. The number of retrieved oocytes, rate of metaphase II stage oocytes, fertilization rate, good cleavage rate, and no-fragmented embryo rate were considered as the assisted reproduction outcomes. The results were adjusted for age, body mass index, duration, and etiology of infertility; P-values less than 0.05 were considered significant. Results: The MDA and TAC levels in FF were not related to the self-report number of the weekly ETS exposure and cotinine levels in FF. Also, the number of retrieved oocytes, MII stage oocytes, fertilization rate, good cleavage rate, and no-fragmented embryo rate were not related to the cotinine level and weekly ETS exposure. However, in women whose cotinine levels in FF were lower and equal/above 3.5 ng/ml, the number of retrieved oocytes was higher (12.63 ± .71 vs. 9.28 ± 1.11, P = 0.01). The relationship between the MDA level and cleavage rate (Beta = −18.5, confidence interval-34.9 and-2.1, P < 0.05) was negatively significant and the relationship between the MII stage rate with TAC (Beta = 0.02, confidence interval 0.01 and 0.04, P < 0.05) was positively significant. Conclusion: The ETS exposure may alter the assisted reproduction success by influencing the number of available oocytes. Although, the OS in a follicular environment affect the ability of oocytes to reach the specific cleavage stages at appropriate time intervals, it does not mediate poor-assisted reproduction outcomes due to ETS exposure. PMID:24379845

Nectar and pollination drops: how different are they?

PubMed

Nepi, Massimo; von Aderkas, Patrick; Wagner, Rebecca; Mugnaini, Serena; Coulter, Andrea; Pacini, Ettore

2009-08-01

Pollination drops and nectars (floral nectars) are secretions related to plant reproduction. The pollination drop is the landing site for the majority of gymnosperm pollen, whereas nectar of angiosperm flowers represents a common nutritional resource for a large variety of pollinators. Extrafloral nectars also are known from all vascular plants, although among the gymnosperms they are restricted to the Gnetales. Extrafloral nectars are not generally involved in reproduction but serve as 'reward' for ants defending plants against herbivores (indirect defence). Although very different in their task, nectars and pollination drops share some features, e.g. basic chemical composition and eventual consumption by animals. This has led some authors to call these secretions collectively nectar. Modern techniques that permit chemical analysis and protein characterization have very recently added important information about these sugary secretions that appear to be much more than a 'reward' for pollinating (floral nectar) and defending animals (extrafloral nectar) or a landing site for pollen (pollination drop). Nectar and pollination drops contain sugars as the main components, but the total concentration and the relative proportions are different. They also contain amino acids, of which proline is frequently the most abundant. Proteomic studies have revealed the presence of common functional classes of proteins such as invertases and defence-related proteins in nectar (floral and extrafloral) and pollination drops. Invertases allow for dynamic rearrangement of sugar composition following secretion. Defence-related proteins provide protection from invasion by fungi and bacteria. Currently, only few species have been studied in any depth. The chemical composition of the pollination drop must be investigated in a larger number of species if eventual phylogenetic relationships are to be revealed. Much more information can be provided from further proteomic studies of both nectar and pollination drop that will contribute to the study of plant reproduction and evolution.

[Adolescent pregnancy, a public health problem].

PubMed

Viel Vicuna, B

1986-01-01

Throughout Western civilization the fundamental unit of society is the family. The union of a couple guarantees their responsibility to future children. Prior to the renaissance, when life expectancy was very low, the preservation of the human species required reproduction at a young age. Since the beginning of the 19th century, life expectancy has increased greatly. The extremes of reproductive age have been noted to be times when pregnancy carries increase risks, and the risks of grand multiparity have been noted. The sexual revolution has resulted in the loss of previous principles of conduct. Youth are incited by pornography in the media, and without the controlling influence of the traditional family, become sexually active at a younger age. In Chile, as elsewhere, there have always been out of wedlock births, but in 1970 these reached 18.5% of all births. By 1980, it had reached 27.6% of all births and 45.7% of births to mothers under age 20. Since the family is the basic unit of society, this number of illegitimate births indicates a grave social problem. This also represents a public health risk due to the increased risks of young mothers. Illegitimate children of adolescent mothers have the added problem that the fathers are usually also young, so both parents are still in school and cannot assume full responsibility for the child. These babies have a much higher infant mortality than those of older mothers. The only solution is education, and legislation requiring paternal responsibility. School teachers often have an inadequate knowledge of reproduction and sexuality, and can not serve as sources of information to the students. Without supportive education and legislation requiring both parents to be responsible for their children, we will not be able to solve this situation.

Cross-species correlation between queen mating numbers and worker ovary sizes suggests kin conflict may influence ovary size evolution in honeybees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueppell, Olav; Phaincharoen, Mananya; Kuster, Ryan; Tingek, Salim

2011-09-01

During social evolution, the ovary size of reproductively specialized honey bee queens has dramatically increased while their workers have evolved much smaller ovaries. However, worker division of labor and reproductive competition under queenless conditions are influenced by worker ovary size. Little comparative information on ovary size exists in the different honey bee species. Here, we report ovariole numbers of freshly dissected workers from six Apis species from two locations in Southeast Asia. The average number of worker ovarioles differs significantly among species. It is strongly correlated with the average mating number of queens, irrespective of body size. Apis dorsata, in particular, is characterized by numerous matings and very large worker ovaries. The relation between queen mating number and ovary size across the six species suggests that individual selection via reproductive competition plays a role in worker ovary size evolution. This indicates that genetic diversity, generated by multiple mating, may bear a fitness cost at the colony level.

Ethical issues in human reproduction: Islamic perspectives.

PubMed

Serour, G I

2013-11-01

Sexual and reproductive rights of women are essential components of human rights. They should never be transferred, renounced or denied for any reason based on race, religion, origin, political opinion or economic conditions. Women have the right to the highest attainable standard of health care for all aspects of their reproductive and sexual health (RSH). The principle of autonomy emphasizes the important role of women in the decision-making. Choices of women in reproduction, after providing evidence based information, should be respected. Risks, benefits and alternatives should be clearly explained before they make their free informed consent. Justice requires that all be treated with equal standard and have equal access to their health needs without discrimination or coercion. When resources are limited there is tension between the principle of justice and utility. Islamic perspectives of bioethics are influenced by primary Sharia namely the Holy Quran, authenticated traditions and saying of the Profit Mohamed (PBUH), Igmaa and Kias (analogy). All the contemporary ethical principles are emphasized in Islamic Shariaa, thus these principles should be observed when providing reproductive and sexual health services for Muslim families or communities. The Family is the basic unit in Islam. Safe motherhood, family planning, and quality reproductive and sexual health information and services and assisted reproductive technology are all encouraged within the frame of marriage. While the Shiaa sect permits egg donation, and surrogacy the Sunni sect forbids a third party contribution to reproduction. Harmful practices in RSH as FGM, child marriage and adolescent pregnancy are prohibited in Islam. Conscientious objection to treatment should not refrain the physician from appropriate referral.

Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs.

PubMed Central

Hone, J.; Pech, R.; Yip, P.

1992-01-01

Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (beta) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed. PMID:1582476

A Critical Protection Level Derived from Dengue Infection Mathematical Model Considering Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.; Soewono, E.

2013-04-01

In this paper we formulate a model of dengue fever transmission by considering the presence of asymptomatic and symptomatic compartments. The model takes the form as a system of differential equations representing a host-vector SIR (Susceptible - Infective -Recovered) disease transmission. It is assumed that both host and vector populations are constant. It is also assumed that reinfection of recovered hosts by the disease is possible due to a wanning immunity in human body. We analyze the model to determine the qualitative behavior of the model solution and use the concept of effective basic reproduction number (fraktur Rp) as a control criteria of the disease transmission. The effect of mosquito biting protection (e.g. by using insect repellent) is also considered. We compute the long-term ratio of the asymptomatic and symptomatic classes and show a condition for which the iceberg phenomenon could appear.

Dynamics and profiles of a diffusive host-pathogen system with distinct dispersal rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yixiang; Zou, Xingfu

2018-04-01

In this paper, we investigate a diffusive host-pathogen model with heterogeneous parameters and distinct dispersal rates for the susceptible and infected hosts. We first prove that the solution of the model exists globally and the model system possesses a global attractor. We then identify the basic reproduction number R0 for the model and prove its threshold role: if R0 ≤ 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R0 > 1, the solution of the model is uniformly persistent and there exists a positive (pathogen persistent) steady state. Finally, we study the asymptotic profiles of the positive steady state as the dispersal rate of the susceptible or infected hosts approaches zero. Our result suggests that the infected hosts concentrate at certain points which can be characterized as the pathogen's most favoured sites when the mobility of the infected host is limited.

On the analysis of competitive displacement in dengue disease transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijaya, Karunia P.; Nuraini, Nuning; Soewono, Edy; Handayani, Dewi

2014-03-01

We study a host-vector model involving the interplay of competitive displacement mechanism in a specific DENV serotype, both in human blood and mosquito blood. Using phylogenetic analysis, world virologists investigate the severe manifestations of dengue fever caused by the displacements within weakly virulent pathogens (native strains) by more virulent pathogens (invasive strains) in one serotype. We construct SIR model for human and SI model for mosquito to explore the key determinants of those displacements. Analysis of nonnegativity and boundedness of the solution as well as the basic reproduction number (R0) are taken into account for verifying the model into biological meaningfulness. To generate predictions of the outcomes of control strategies, we derive an optimal control model which involves two control apparatus: fluid infusion (for human) and fumigation (for vector). Numerical results show the dynamics of host-vector in an observation period, both under control and without control.

[Comparison of Flu Outbreak Reporting Standards Based on Transmission Dynamics Model].

PubMed

Yang, Guo-jing; Yi, Qing-jie; Li, Qin; Zeng, Qing

2016-05-01

To compare the current two flu outbreak reporting standards for the purpose of better prevention and control of flu outbreaks. A susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model without interventions was set up first, followed by a model with interventions based on real situation. Simulated interventions were developed based on the two reporting standards, and evaluated by estimated duration of outbreaks, cumulative new cases, cumulative morbidity rates, decline in percentage of morbidity rates, and cumulative secondary cases. The basic reproductive number of the outbreak was estimated as 8. 2. The simulation produced similar results as the real situation. The effect of interventions based on reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) was better than that of interventions based on reporting standard two (30 accumulated new cases in a week). The reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) is more effective for prevention and control of flu outbreaks.

Global stability of a multiple infected compartments model for waterborne diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

2014-10-01

In this paper, mathematical analysis is carried out for a multiple infected compartments model for waterborne diseases, such as cholera, giardia, and rotavirus. The model accounts for both person-to-person and water-to-person transmission routes. Global stability of the equilibria is studied. In terms of the basic reproduction number R0, we prove that, if R0⩽1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the infection always disappears; whereas if R0>1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable for the corresponding fast-slow system. Numerical simulations verify our theoretical results and present that the decay rate of waterborne pathogens has a significant impact on the epidemic growth rate. Also, we observe numerically that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for the whole system. This statement indicates that the present method need to be improved by other techniques.

A mathematical model of Staphylococcus aureus control in dairy herds.

PubMed Central

Zadoks, R. N.; Allore, H. G.; Hagenaars, T. J.; Barkema, H. W.; Schukken, Y. H.

2002-01-01

An ordinary differential equation model was developed to simulate dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus mastitis. Data to estimate model parameters were obtained from an 18-month observational study in three commercial dairy herds. A deterministic simulation model was constructed to estimate values of the basic (R0) and effective (Rt) reproductive number in each herd, and to examine the effect of management on mastitis control. In all herds R0 was below the threshold value 1, indicating control of contagious transmission. Rt was higher than R0 because recovered individuals were more susceptible to infection than individuals without prior infection history. Disease dynamics in two herds were well described by the model. Treatment of subclinical mastitis and prevention of influx of infected individuals contributed to decrease of S. aureus prevalence. For one herd, the model failed to mimic field observations. Explanations for the discrepancy are given in a discussion of current knowledge and model assumptions. PMID:12403116

Effect of a preventive vaccine on the dynamics of HIV transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumel, A. B.; Moghadas, S. M.; Mickens, R. E.

2004-12-01

A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in the presence of a preventive vaccine is considered. Although the equilibria of the model could not be expressed in closed form, their existence and threshold conditions for their stability are theoretically investigated. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number R<1 (thus, HIV disease can be eradicated from the community) and unstable if R>1 (leading to the persistence of HIV within the community). A robust, positivity-preserving, non-standard finite-difference method is constructed and used to solve the model equations. In addition to showing that the anti-HIV vaccine coverage level and the vaccine-induced protection are critically important in reducing the threshold quantity R, our study predicts the minimum threshold values of vaccine coverage and efficacy levels needed to eradicate HIV from the community.

Global stability of an age-structure epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Bin; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong

2017-11-01

A new age-structured epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse is proposed. The total population of our model is partitioned into five subclasses: susceptible class S, vaccinated class V, exposed class E, infectious class I and removed class R. Age-structures are equipped with in exposed and recovered classes. Furthermore, imperfect vaccination is also introduced in our model. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and proved as a threshold parameter of the model. Asymptotic smoothness of solutions and uniform persistence of the system are showed via reformulating the system as a system of Volterra integral equation. Furthermore, by constructing proper Volterra-type Lyapunov functional we get when R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. Our results show that to increase the efficiency of vaccination and reduce influence of relapse are vital essential for controlling epidemic.

Synthesizing epidemiological and economic optima for control of immunizing infections.

PubMed

Klepac, Petra; Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Grenfell, Bryan T

2011-08-23

Epidemic theory predicts that the vaccination threshold required to interrupt local transmission of an immunizing infection like measles depends only on the basic reproductive number and hence transmission rates. When the search for optimal strategies is expanded to incorporate economic constraints, the optimum for disease control in a single population is determined by relative costs of infection and control, rather than transmission rates. Adding a spatial dimension, which precludes local elimination unless it can be achieved globally, can reduce or increase optimal vaccination levels depending on the balance of costs and benefits. For weakly coupled populations, local optimal strategies agree with the global cost-effective strategy; however, asymmetries in costs can lead to divergent control optima in more strongly coupled systems--in particular, strong regional differences in costs of vaccination can preclude local elimination even when elimination is locally optimal. Under certain conditions, it is locally optimal to share vaccination resources with other populations.

Promiscuity and the evolution of sexual transmitted diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Sebastián; Kuperman, Marcelo; Ferreira da Costa Gomes, Marcelo

2003-09-01

We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized in couples and interact with each other. The different social behaviors are incorporated assigning what we call a promiscuity value to each individual agent. The individual promiscuity is taken from a distribution and represents the daily probability of going out to look for a sexual partner, abandoning its eventual mate. In terms of this parameter we find a threshold for the epidemic which is much lower than the classical SIR model prediction, i.e., R0 (basic reproductive number)=1. Different forms for the distribution of the population promiscuity are considered showing that the threshold is weakly sensitive to them. We study the homosexual and the heterosexual case as well.

Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

PubMed

Guinat, C; Gubbins, S; Vergne, T; Gonzales, J L; Dixon, L; Pfeiffer, D U

2016-01-01

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Does catch and release affect the mating system and individual reproductive success of wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)?

PubMed

Richard, Antoine; Dionne, Mélanie; Wang, Jinliang; Bernatchez, Louis

2013-01-01

In this study, we documented the breeding system of a wild population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) by genetically sampling every returning adult and assessed the determinants of individual fitness. We then quantified the impacts of catch and release (C&R) on mating and reproductive success. Both sexes showed high variance in individual reproductive success, and the estimated standardized variance was higher for males (2.86) than for females (0.73). We found a weak positive relationship between body size and fitness and observed that fitness was positively correlated with the number of mates, especially in males. Mature male parr sired 44% of the analysed offspring. The impact of C&R on the number of offspring was size dependent, as the reproductive success of larger fish was more impaired than smaller ones. Also, there was an interactive negative effect of water temperature and air exposure time on reproductive success of C&R salmon. This study improves our understanding of the complex reproductive biology of the Atlantic salmon and is the first to investigate the impact of C&R on reproductive success. Our study expands the management toolbox of appropriate C&R practices that promote conservation of salmon populations and limit negative impacts on mating and reproductive success. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Association of reproductive history with breast tissue characteristics and receptor status in the normal breast.

PubMed

Gabrielson, Marike; Chiesa, Flaminia; Behmer, Catharina; Rönnow, Katarina; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per

2018-03-30

Reproductive history has been associated with breast cancer risk, but more knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms is needed. Because of limited data on normal breast tissue from healthy women, we examined associations of reproductive history and established breast cancer risk factors with breast tissue composition and markers of hormone receptors and proliferation in a nested study within the Karolinska Mammography project for risk prediction for breast cancer (Karma). Tissues from 153 women were obtained by ultrasound-guided core needle biopsy as part of the Karma project. Immunohistochemical staining was used to assessed histological composition of epithelial, stromal and adipose tissue, epithelial and stromal oestrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, and Ki-67 proliferation status. An individualised reproductive score including parity, number of pregnancies without birth, number of births, age at first birth, and duration of breastfeeding, was calculated based on self-reported reproductive history at the time of the Karma study entry. All analyses were adjusted for age and BMI. Cumulated reproductive score was associated with increased total epithelial content and greater expression of epithelial ER. Parity was associated with greater epithelial area, increased epithelial-stromal ratio, greater epithelial ER expression and a lower extent of stromal proliferation. Increasing numbers of pregnancies and births were associated with a greater epithelial area in the entire study set, which remained significant among postmenopausal women. Increasing numbers of pregnancies and births were also associated with a greater expression of epithelial ER among postmenopausal women. Longer duration of breastfeeding was associated with greater epithelial area and greater expression of epithelial PR both in the entire study set and among postmenopausal women. Breastfeeding was also positively associated with greater epithelial ER expression among postmenopausal women. Prior use of oral contraceptives was associated with lower epithelial-stromal ratio amongst all participants and among pre- and postmenopausal women separately. Reproductive risk factors significantly influence the epithelial tissue compartment and expression of hormone receptors in later life. These changes remain after menopause. This study provides deeper insights of the biological mechanisms by which reproductive history influences epithelial area and expression of hormone receptors, and as a consequence the risk of breast cancer.

Effects of Seasonal Weather on Breeding Phenology and Reproductive Success of Alpine Ptarmigan in Colorado

PubMed Central

Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures. PMID:27420478

Effects of Seasonal Weather on Breeding Phenology and Reproductive Success of Alpine Ptarmigan in Colorado.

PubMed

Wann, Gregory T; Aldridge, Cameron L; Braun, Clait E

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

1997-01-01

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more strongly, especially in colder or wetter climates.

Effects of seasonal weather on breeding phenology and reproductive success of alpine ptarmigan in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

Florivory and nectar-robbing perforations in flowers of pointleaf manzanita Arctostaphylos pungens (Ericaceae) and their effects on plant reproductive success

PubMed Central

Eliyahu, Dorit; McCall, Andrew C.; Lauck, Marina; Trakhtenbrot, Ana

2015-01-01

Damage to petals may have varying effects on the reproductive success of the plant. The variation may depend on the kind of damage to the corolla. Whether the damage is limited to the corolla, as is usually the case with nectar-robbing perforations, or extending to the reproductive parts of the flower, as in the case of florivory holes, might determine the extent of the effect on the plant's reproduction. We examined the various perforations in the flowers of Arctostaphylos pungens and correlated their presence with fruiting success. We found that though florivory holes were highly associated with damage to reproductive parts, fruiting success did not differ significantly between flowers with the two kinds of damage. Although nectar-robbing perforations were not associated with reduced number of fruit produced, they were significantly correlated with reduced number of fruit that contained seemingly viable seeds. The implications of our findings are discussed in the context of pollination and antagonism. PMID:26811740

Mutation independently affects reproductive traits and dauer larvae development in mutation accumulation lines of Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Hills, Arthur J; Green, James W M; Harvey, Simon C

2017-11-01

Developmental decisions are important in organismal fitness. For the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, which is naturally found in the ephemeral food patches formed by rotting plant material, correctly committing to dauer or non-dauer larval development is key to genotype survival. To investigate the link between reproductive traits, which will determine how populations grow, and dauer larvae formation, we have analysed these traits in mutation accumulation lines of C. elegans. We find that reproductive traits of individual worms-the total number of progeny and the timing of progeny production-are highly correlated with the population size observed in growing populations. In contrast, we find no relationship between reproduction traits and the number of dauer larvae observed in growing populations. We also do not observe a mutational bias in dauer larvae formation. These results indicate that the control of dauer larvae formation is distinct from the control of reproduction and that differences in dauer larvae formation can evolve rapidly.

Correlation between women's sub-health and reproductive diseases with pregnancies and labors.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaojuan; Zeng, Qian; Ding, Hong; Feng, Lingyan; Deng, Linwen

2014-08-01

To investigate whether female sub-health conditions and reproductive diseases are associated with pregnancies and labors. A cross-sectional survey was performed by using a structured questionnaire. A total of 1343 women aged 35 years or younger in six urban areas of Chengdu were included in the study. According to the Screening Criteria of sub-health conditions, these women were categorized into three groups: postpartum healthy group, sub-healthy group, and reproductive disease group. Data were double-entered using EpiData and then analyzed by SPSS. Pregnancy and labor were correlated with postpartum sub-health conditions. The number of pregnancies was negatively correlated with women's postnatal health but was positively correlated with the incidence of postpartum reproductive diseases. The number of pregnancies and labors is probably an important factor leading to sub-health conditions and the occurrence of reproductive diseases in women. Avoiding or reducing unwanted pregnancies and labors, enhancing the awareness of health among childbearing-age women are effective measures for preventing sub-health conditions.

Florivory and nectar-robbing perforations in flowers of pointleaf manzanita Arctostaphylos pungens (Ericaceae) and their effects on plant reproductive success.

PubMed

Eliyahu, Dorit; McCall, Andrew C; Lauck, Marina; Trakhtenbrot, Ana

2015-12-01

Damage to petals may have varying effects on the reproductive success of the plant. The variation may depend on the kind of damage to the corolla. Whether the damage is limited to the corolla, as is usually the case with nectar-robbing perforations, or extending to the reproductive parts of the flower, as in the case of florivory holes, might determine the extent of the effect on the plant's reproduction. We examined the various perforations in the flowers of Arctostaphylos pungens and correlated their presence with fruiting success. We found that though florivory holes were highly associated with damage to reproductive parts, fruiting success did not differ significantly between flowers with the two kinds of damage. Although nectar-robbing perforations were not associated with reduced number of fruit produced, they were significantly correlated with reduced number of fruit that contained seemingly viable seeds. The implications of our findings are discussed in the context of pollination and antagonism.

Educational homogamy lowers the odds of reproductive failure.

PubMed

Huber, Susanne; Fieder, Martin

2011-01-01

Assortative mating based on education is a common phenomenon. We investigated whether it affected parameters of reproductive performance such as childlessness, offspring number and age at first marriage. On the basis of the US census from 1980 (n = 670,631 married US couples), we find that the proportion of childless individuals is usually minimal in women married to a husband of the same educational level. This holds particularly true in the highest and the lowest educated women. Educational homogamy is also associated with a lower average age at first marriage. No obvious effect of educational homogamy on a woman's average offspring number is found, where mean offspring number generally increases both with decreasing woman's and decreasing husband's educational attainment. We conclude that educational homogamy reduces the likelihood of reproductive failure.

Educational Homogamy Lowers the Odds of Reproductive Failure

PubMed Central

Huber, Susanne; Fieder, Martin

2011-01-01

Assortative mating based on education is a common phenomenon. We investigated whether it affected parameters of reproductive performance such as childlessness, offspring number and age at first marriage. On the basis of the US census from 1980 (n = 670,631 married US couples), we find that the proportion of childless individuals is usually minimal in women married to a husband of the same educational level. This holds particularly true in the highest and the lowest educated women. Educational homogamy is also associated with a lower average age at first marriage. No obvious effect of educational homogamy on a woman's average offspring number is found, where mean offspring number generally increases both with decreasing woman's and decreasing husband's educational attainment. We conclude that educational homogamy reduces the likelihood of reproductive failure. PMID:21818310

Mendel’s law reveals fatal flaws in Bateman’s 1948 study of mating and fitness

PubMed Central

Gowaty, Patricia Adair; Kim, Yong-Kyu; Anderson, Wyatt W.

2013-01-01

Bateman’s experimental study of Drosophila melanogaster produced conclusions that are now part of the bedrock premises of modern sexual selection. Today it is the most cited experimental study in sexual selection, and famous as the first experimental demonstration of sex differences in the relationship between number of mates and relative reproductive success. We repeated the experimental methodology of the original to evaluate its reliability. The results indicate that Bateman’s methodology of visible mutations to assign parentage and reproductive success to subject adults is significantly biased. When combined in offspring, the mutations decrease offspring survival, so that counts of mate number and reproductive success are mismeasured. Bateman’s method overestimates the number of subjects with no mates and underestimates the number with one or more mates for both sexes. Here we discuss why Bateman’s paper is important and present additional analyses of data from our monogamy trials. Monogamy trials can inform inferences about the force of sexual selection in populations because in monogamy trials male–male competition and female choice are absent. Monogamy trials also would have provided Bateman with an a priori test of the fit of his data to Mendel’s laws, an unstated, but vital assumption of his methodology for assigning parentage from which he inferred the number of mates per individual subject and their reproductive success. Even under enforced monogamous mating, offspring frequencies of double mutant, single mutant and no mutant offspring were significantly different from Mendelian expectations proving that Bateman’s method was inappropriate for answering the questions he posed. Double mutant offspring (those with a mutation from each parent) suffered significant inviability as did single mutant offspring whenever they inherited their mother’s marker but the wild-type allele at their father’s marker locus. These inviability effects produced two important inaccuracies in Bateman’s results and conclusions. (1) Some matings that actually occurred were invisible and (2) reproductive success of some mothers was under-estimated. Both observations show that Bateman’s conclusions about sex differences in number of mates and reproductive success were unwarranted, based on biased observations. We speculate about why Bateman’s classic study remained without replication for so long, and we discuss why repetition almost 60 years after the original is still timely, necessary and critical to the scientific enterprise. We highlight overlooked alternative hypotheses to urge that modern tests of Bateman’s conclusions go beyond confirmatory studies to test alternative hypotheses to explain the relationship between mate number and reproductive success. PMID:23360967

Mendel's law reveals fatal flaws in Bateman's 1948 study of mating and fitness.

PubMed

Gowaty, Patricia Adair; Kim, Yong-Kyu; Anderson, Wyatt W

2013-01-01

Bateman's experimental study of Drosophila melanogaster produced conclusions that are now part of the bedrock premises of modern sexual selection. Today it is the most cited experimental study in sexual selection, and famous as the first experimental demonstration of sex differences in the relationship between number of mates and relative reproductive success. We repeated the experimental methodology of the original to evaluate its reliability. The results indicate that Bateman's methodology of visible mutations to assign parentage and reproductive success to subject adults is significantly biased. When combined in offspring, the mutations decrease offspring survival, so that counts of mate number and reproductive success are mismeasured. Bateman's method overestimates the number of subjects with no mates and underestimates the number with one or more mates for both sexes. Here we discuss why Bateman's paper is important and present additional analyses of data from our monogamy trials. Monogamy trials can inform inferences about the force of sexual selection in populations because in monogamy trials male-male competition and female choice are absent. Monogamy trials also would have provided Bateman with an a priori test of the fit of his data to Mendel's laws, an unstated, but vital assumption of his methodology for assigning parentage from which he inferred the number of mates per individual subject and their reproductive success. Even under enforced monogamous mating, offspring frequencies of double mutant, single mutant and no mutant offspring were significantly different from Mendelian expectations proving that Bateman's method was inappropriate for answering the questions he posed. Double mutant offspring (those with a mutation from each parent) suffered significant inviability as did single mutant offspring whenever they inherited their mother's marker but the wild-type allele at their father's marker locus. These inviability effects produced two important inaccuracies in Bateman's results and conclusions. (1) Some matings that actually occurred were invisible and (2) reproductive success of some mothers was under-estimated. Both observations show that Bateman's conclusions about sex differences in number of mates and reproductive success were unwarranted, based on biased observations. We speculate about why Bateman's classic study remained without replication for so long, and we discuss why repetition almost 60 years after the original is still timely, necessary and critical to the scientific enterprise. We highlight overlooked alternative hypotheses to urge that modern tests of Bateman's conclusions go beyond confirmatory studies to test alternative hypotheses to explain the relationship between mate number and reproductive success.

Cloning: can it be good for us? An overview of cloning technology and its moral implications.

PubMed

FitzGerald, K

2001-01-01

Adequate answers to moral questions about cloning require a working knowledge of the science and technology involved, both present and anticipated. This essay presents an overview of the current state of somatic cell nuclear transfer technology (SCNT), the type of cloning that now permits whole organism reproduction from adult DNA. This essay explains the basic science and technology of SCNT and explores its potential uses. Next, this essay notes remaining scientific obstacles and unanswered moral questions that must be resolved before SCNT can be used for human reproduction. Attention is given to aspects related to cloning for therapeutic and research purposes.

How do educational contexts contribute to the social class achievement gap: documenting symbolic violence from a social psychological point of view.

PubMed

Croizet, Jean-Claude; Goudeau, Sébastien; Marot, Medhi; Millet, Mathias

2017-12-01

This article examines how the educational system participates in the reproduction of social inequality. After exposing the basics of the Social Reproduction Theory developed in sociology by Bourdieu and Passeron in 1977, we examine the research in social psychology that documents the reality of 'symbolic violence' that is the symbolic power that operates in the classroom and undermines the performance of students from underprivileged backgrounds. Three lines of research are examined: self-esteem, self-threat and research on the non-neutrality of educational settings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survey of reproductive health in young adults, greater Santiago, 1988.

PubMed

Valenzuela, M S; Herold, J M; Morris, L; López, I

1991-01-01

This article reports the results of an interview survey with 1,665 residents of Metropolitan Santiago 15-24 years old. The survey, which dealt with various aspects of reproductive health, indicated that the sex education received by 75% of the subjects generally failed to convey an accurate knowledge of the basic concepts of sexuality; that use of contraceptive methods was very limited; that approximately 25% of the 865 women interviewed had been pregnant at some time; and that 40% of all the pregnancies were unplanned. These findings demonstrate a need to begin effective sex education programs and to provide adolescent services commensurate with the circumstances of modern life.

Sex Allocation and Reproductive Success in the Andromonoecious Perennial Solanum carolinense (Solanaceae). II. Paternity and Functional Gender.

PubMed

Elle, Elizabeth; Meagher, Thomas R

2000-12-01

According to Bateman's principle, male fitness in entomophilous plant species should be limited by mating opportunity, which is influenced by the size or number of flowers. We determined male-specific fitness consequences of floral phenotype in andromonoecious Solanum carolinense, examined the relationship between male and female reproductive success within plants, and evaluated the distribution of functional gender among plants. A maximum likelihood-based paternity analysis, based on multilocus allozyme phenotypes of parents and offspring from four experimental plots, was used to determine male reproductive success and its relationship to floral phenotype. Male success was enhanced by an increase in the proportion of male flowers produced but not by an increase in total flower number, even though all flowers contain male parts. Larger flower size increased male success in only one plot. Male and female reproductive success were negatively correlated, and plants varied in functional gender from completely female to completely male. This gender specialization may occur because hermaphroditic and male flowers differ in their ability to contribute to male and female success. Although sex allocation theory predicts a positive relationship between the size or number of plant parts and reproductive success, this study indicates that aspects of floral morphology that affect gender specialization should also be considered.

Environment, epigenetics and reproduction.

PubMed

Skinner, Michael K

2017-07-01

A conference summary of the third biannual Kenya Africa Conference "Environment, Epigenetics and Reproduction" is provided. A partial special Environmental Epigenetics issue containing a number of papers in Volume 3, Issue 3 and 4 are discussed.

Rabies Vaccination Targets for Stray Dog Populations

PubMed Central

Leung, Tiffany; Davis, Stephen A.

2017-01-01

The role of stray dogs in the persistence of domestic dog rabies, and whether removal of such dogs is beneficial, remains contentious issues for control programs seeking to eliminate rabies. While a community might reach the WHO vaccination target of 70% for dogs that can be handled, the stray or neighborhood dogs that are too wary of humans to be held are a more problematic population to vaccinate. Here, we present a method to estimate vaccination targets for stray dogs when the dog population is made up of stray, free-roaming, and confined dogs, where the latter two types are considered to have an identifiable owner. The control effort required for stray dogs is determined by the type-reproduction number, T1, the number of stray dogs infected by one rabid stray dog either directly or via any chain of infection involving owned dogs. Like the basic reproduction number R0 for single host populations, T1 determines the vaccination effort required to control the spread of disease when control is targeted at one host type, and there is a mix of host types. The application of T1 to rabies in mixed populations of stray and owned dogs is novel. We show that the outcome is sensitive to the vaccination coverage in the owned dog population, such that if vaccination rates of owned dogs were too low then no control effort targeting stray dogs is able to control or eliminate rabies. The required vaccination level also depends on the composition of the dog population, where a high proportion of either stray or free-roaming dogs implies unrealistically high vaccination levels are required to prevent rabies. We find that the required control effort is less sensitive to continuous culling that increases the death rate of stray dogs than to changes in the carrying capacity of the stray dog population. PMID:28451589

Switch from sexual to parthenogenetic reproduction in a zebra shark.

PubMed

Dudgeon, Christine L; Coulton, Laura; Bone, Ren; Ovenden, Jennifer R; Thomas, Severine

2017-01-16

Parthenogenesis is a natural form of asexual reproduction in which embryos develop in the absence of fertilisation. Most commonly found in plants and invertebrate organisms, an increasing number of vertebrate species have recently been reported employing this reproductive strategy. Here we use DNA genotyping to report the first demonstration of an intra-individual switch from sexual to parthenogenetic reproduction in a shark species, the zebra shark Stegostoma fasciatum. A co-housed, sexually produced daughter zebra shark also commenced parthenogenetic reproduction at the onset of maturity without any prior mating. The demonstration of parthenogenesis in these two conspecific individuals with different sexual histories provides further support that elasmobranch fishes may flexibly adapt their reproductive strategy to environmental circumstances.

Reproductive tourism in Argentina: clinic accreditation and its implications for consumers, health professionals and policy makers.

PubMed

Smith, Elise; Behrmann, Jason; Martin, Carolina; Williams-Jones, Bryn

2010-08-01

A subcategory of medical tourism, reproductive tourism has been the subject of much public and policy debate in recent years. Specific concerns include: the exploitation of individuals and communities, access to needed health care services, fair allocation of limited resources, and the quality and safety of services provided by private clinics. To date, the focus of attention has been on the thriving medical and reproductive tourism sectors in Asia and Eastern Europe; there has been much less consideration given to more recent 'players' in Latin America, notably fertility clinics in Chile, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. In this paper, we examine the context-specific ethical and policy implications of private Argentinean fertility clinics that market reproductive services via the internet. Whether or not one agrees that reproductive services should be made available as consumer goods, the fact is that they are provided as such by private clinics around the world. We argue that basic national regulatory mechanisms are required in countries such as Argentina that are marketing fertility services to local and international publics. Specifically, regular oversight of all fertility clinics is essential to ensure that consumer information is accurate and that marketed services are safe and effective. It is in the best interests of consumers, health professionals and policy makers that the reproductive tourism industry adopts safe and responsible medical practices.

The Effect of Interprofessional Student-Led Reproductive Health Education on Youths in Juvenile Detention.

PubMed

Son, Ji; Miller, Willa M; Tossone, Krystel; Butcher, Fredrick; Kuo, Kelly

2017-06-01

To assess the effects of an interprofessional student-led comprehensive sexual education curriculum in improving the reproductive health literacy among at-risk youths in detention. We performed a prospective cohort study involving 134 incarcerated youth and an interprofessional team of 23 medical, nursing, and social work students, who participated in a comprehensive reproductive health curriculum over the course of 3 days. Basic reproductive health knowledge, confidence in condom use with a new partner, and self-efficacy with regard to contraception use and sexual autonomy were assessed before and after completion of the curriculum. We also assessed the student teachers' level of comfort with teaching reproductive health to adolescents and their perception of interprofessionalism. Incarcerated youth showed a statistically significant increase in knowledge regarding sexually transmitted infections as well as self-reported confidence in condom use (P = .002). Self-efficacy in contraception use and sexual autonomy did not show significant improvement. Qualitative analysis of student teachers' surveys revealed theme categories regarding perception of youth, perception of self in teaching youth, perception of interacting with youth, and perception of working in interprofessional teams. Our program might represent a mutually beneficial community relationship to improve reproductive health literacy in this high-risk youth population. Copyright © 2016 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea.

PubMed

Choi, S; Jung, E; Choi, B Y; Hur, Y J; Ki, M

2018-06-01

Effective countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases require an understanding of transmission rate and basic reproduction number (R 0 ). R 0 for severe acute respiratory syndrome is generally considered to be >1, whereas that for Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is considered to be <1. However, this does not explain the large-scale outbreaks of MERS that occurred in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and South Korean hospitals. To estimate R 0 in nosocomial outbreaks of MERS. R 0 was estimated using the incidence decay with an exponential adjustment model. The KSA and Korean outbreaks were compared using a line listing of MERS cases compiled using publicly available sources. Serial intervals to estimate R 0 were assumed to be six to eight days. Study parameters [R 0 and countermeasures (d)] were estimated by fitting a model to the cumulative incidence epidemic curves using Matlab. The estimated R 0 in Korea was 3.9 in the best-fit model, with a serial interval of six days. The first outbreak cluster in a hospital in Pyeongtaek had an R 0 of 4.04, and the largest outbreak cluster in a hospital in Samsung had an R 0 of 5.0. Assuming a six-day serial interval, the KSA outbreaks in Jeddah and Riyadh had R 0 values of 3.9 and 1.9, respectively. R 0 for the nosocomial MERS outbreaks in KSA and South Korea was estimated to be in the range of 2-5, which is significantly higher than the previous estimate of <1. Therefore, more comprehensive countermeasures are needed to address these infections. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An assessment of mumps vaccine effectiveness by dose during an outbreak in Canada

PubMed Central

Deeks, Shelley L.; Lim, Gillian H.; Simpson, Mary Anne; Gagné, Louise; Gubbay, Jonathan; Kristjanson, Erik; Fung, Cecilia; Crowcroft, Natasha S.

2011-01-01

Background This investigation was done to assess vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine during an outbreak of mumps in Ontario. The level of coverage required to reach herd immunity and interrupt community transmission of mumps was also estimated. Methods Information on confirmed cases of mumps was retrieved from Ontario’s integrated Public Health Information System. Cases that occurred between Sept. 1, 2009, and June 10, 2010, were included. Selected health units supplied coverage data from the Ontario Immunization Record Information System. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. The basic reproductive number (R0) represents the average number of new infections per case in a fully susceptile population, and R0 values of between 4 and 10 were considered for varying levels of vaccine effectiveness. Results A total of 134 confirmed cases of mumps were identified. Information on receipt of MMR vaccine was available for 114 (85.1%) cases, of whom 63 (55.3%) reported having received only one dose of vaccine; 32 (28.1%) reported having received two doses. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose of the MMR vaccine ranged from 49.2% to 81.6%, whereas vaccine effectiveness of two doses ranged from 66.3% to 88.0%. If we assume vaccine effectiveness of 85% for two doses of the vaccine, vaccine coverage of 88.2% and 98.0% would be needed to interrupt community transmission of mumps if the corresponding reproductive values were four and six. Interpretation Our estimates of vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine were consistent with the estimates that have been reported in other outbreaks. Outbreaks occurring in Ontario and elsewhere serve as a warning against complacency over vaccination programs. PMID:21576295

An assessment of mumps vaccine effectiveness by dose during an outbreak in Canada.

PubMed

Deeks, Shelley L; Lim, Gillian H; Simpson, Mary Anne; Gagné, Louise; Gubbay, Jonathan; Kristjanson, Erik; Fung, Cecilia; Crowcroft, Natasha S

2011-06-14

This investigation was done to assess vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine during an outbreak of mumps in Ontario. The level of coverage required to reach herd immunity and interrupt community transmission of mumps was also estimated. Information on confirmed cases of mumps was retrieved from Ontario's integrated Public Health Information System. Cases that occurred between Sept. 1, 2009, and June 10, 2010, were included. Selected health units supplied coverage data from the Ontario Immunization Record Information System. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. The basic reproductive number (R(0)) represents the average number of new infections per case in a fully susceptible population, and R(0) values of between 4 and 10 were considered for varying levels of vaccine effectiveness. A total of 134 confirmed cases of mumps were identified. Information on receipt of MMR vaccine was available for 114 (85.1%) cases, of whom 63 (55.3%) reported having received only one dose of vaccine; 32 (28.1%) reported having received two doses. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose of the MMR vaccine ranged from 49.2% to 81.6%, whereas vaccine effectiveness of two doses ranged from 66.3% to 88.0%. If we assume vaccine effectiveness of 85% for two doses of the vaccine, vaccine coverage of 88.2% and 98.0% would be needed to interrupt community transmission of mumps if the corresponding reproductive values were four and six. Our estimates of vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine were consistent with the estimates that have been reported in other outbreaks. Outbreaks occurring in Ontario and elsewhere serve as a warning against complacency over vaccination programs.

Bringing X, Y, Z Generations Together to Facilitate School-Based Sexual and Reproductive Health Education

PubMed Central

Kamrani, Mahnaz Akbari; Yahya, Sharifah Syed

2016-01-01

This generic qualitative study explores the perspective of Malaysian teachers regarding the constraints of the current school-based sexual and reproductive health education in secondary schools of Klang-Valley Malaysia. For this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with twenty eight science teachers of government schools. The majority of participants named the teaching strategy and capacity of teachers, the lack of co-operation from the school and parents, limited resources in teaching and students themselves as some of the challenges. We concluded that if sexual health education is to be effective, it needs to be provided by people who have some specialized training. The teachers should be trained to teach sexual reproductive health education classes at the basic level, and in-service training for teachers already in the field should be intensified. Local adaptation to culture, language, religion, and so forth is often necessary. PMID:27157180

The origin of risk aversion

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J.; Lo, Andrew W.

2014-01-01

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins. PMID:25453072

Bringing X, Y, Z Generations Together to Facilitate School-Based Sexual and Reproductive Health Education.

PubMed

Akbari Kamrani, Mahnaz; Yahya, Sharifah Syed

2016-09-01

This generic qualitative study explores the perspective of Malaysian teachers regarding the constraints of the current school-based sexual and reproductive health education in secondary schools of Klang-Valley Malaysia. For this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with twenty eight science teachers of government schools. The majority of participants named the teaching strategy and capacity of teachers, the lack of co-operation from the school and parents, limited resources in teaching and students themselves as some of the challenges. We concluded that if sexual health education is to be effective, it needs to be provided by people who have some specialized training. The teachers should be trained to teach sexual reproductive health education classes at the basic level, and in-service training for teachers already in the field should be intensified. Local adaptation to culture, language, religion, and so forth is often necessary.

The origin of risk aversion.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruixun; Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

2014-12-16

Risk aversion is one of the most basic assumptions of economic behavior, but few studies have addressed the question of where risk preferences come from and why they differ from one individual to the next. Here, we propose an evolutionary explanation for the origin of risk aversion. In the context of a simple binary-choice model, we show that risk aversion emerges by natural selection if reproductive risk is systematic (i.e., correlated across individuals in a given generation). In contrast, risk neutrality emerges if reproductive risk is idiosyncratic (i.e., uncorrelated across each given generation). More generally, our framework implies that the degree of risk aversion is determined by the stochastic nature of reproductive rates, and we show that different statistical properties lead to different utility functions. The simplicity and generality of our model suggest that these implications are primitive and cut across species, physiology, and genetic origins.

Hypothetical link between infertility and genetically modified food.

PubMed

Gao, Mingxia; Li, Bin; Yuan, Wenzhen; Zhao, Lihui; Zhang, Xuehong

2014-01-01

It is speculated that genetically modified food (GMF)/genetically modified organism (GMO) is responsible for infertility development. The risk linked with a wide use of GMFs/GMOs offers the basic elements for social criticism. However, to date, it has not been justified whether the bad effects are directly resulted from products of genetic modifications or trans-genesis process. Extensive experience with the risk assessment of whole foods has been applied recently on the safety and nutritional testing of GMFs/GMOs. Investigations have tested the safety of GMFs including sub-acute, chronic, reproductive, multi-generation and carcinogenicity studies. We extrapolated the potential risks associated with GMFs/GMOs on reproduction, and analyzed the multi-aspect linked between infertility and GMFs/GMOs. It could be conjectured that GMFs/GMOs could be potential hazard on reproduction, linking to the development of infertility through influencing the endocrine metabolism, endometriosis. However, little evidence shows the impaction on embryo or reproductive related tumor due to the limited literatures, and needs further research. The article presents some related patents on GMFs/GMOs, and some methods for tracking GMOs.

[The students' page. Notes about patient records and the production and reproduction of knowledge. Written and oral presentations].

PubMed

de Almeida, L B; dos Santos, E S; Alves, D de B

1995-01-01

This paper relates a description about nursing notes in pactients promptuaries in relation to the distribution/reproduction/production process of knowledge in nursing. It was developed on an Intensive Care Unity from a Hospital in the teaching/assistance Sanitary District Barra/Rio Vermelho (Salvador-Bahia). The basic premise is that the nursing personal work superficial and sporadic notes just related to patients. Distribution/ reproduction/production process, that happen in the nursing work process isn't considered by it devaluation or just because, for nursing agents, only information about technical procedures related to patient care, expresses the nursing knowledge and so, must be registered. In order to reach the objective, 30% of the promptuaries of patients discharge from the ICU were studied and the nursing team was interviewed, during the months-november, december 1994. The analysis indicates that the way how the nursing notes are been made, results in hard communication among agents of health area and contributes to disqualify the nursing assistance that is given to patients, besides to limit the advance of the distribution/reproduction/production of knowledge in nursing.

Female gonadal hormones and reproductive behaviors as key determinants of successful reproductive output of breeding whooping cranes (Grus americana)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Megan E; Converse, Sarah J.; Chandler, Jane N.; Shafer, Charles; Brown, Janine L; Keefer, Carol L; Songsasen, Nucharin

2016-01-01

Reproductive success of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) maintained ex situ is poor. As part of an effort to identify potential causes of poor reproductive success in a captive colony, we used non-invasive endocrine monitoring to assess gonadal and adrenal steroids of bird pairs with various reproductive outcomes and evaluated the relationships of hormones and behaviors to reproductive performance. Overall, reproductively successful (i.e., egg laying) females had significantly higher mean estrogen levels but lower mean progestogen concentrations than did unsuccessful females. Other hormones, including glucocorticoids and androgens, were not significantly different between successful and unsuccessful individuals. Observations of specific behaviors such as unison calling, marching, and the number of copulation attempts, along with overall time spent performing reproductive behaviors, were significantly higher in successful pairs. Our findings indicate that overall reproductive performance of whooping crane pairs is linked to female gonadal hormone excretion and reproductive behaviors, but not to altered adrenal hormone production.

Female gonadal hormones and reproductive behaviors as key determinants of successful reproductive output of breeding whooping cranes (Grus americana).

PubMed

Brown, Megan E; Converse, Sarah J; Chandler, Jane N; Shafer, Charles; Brown, Janine L; Keefer, Carol L; Songsasen, Nucharin

2016-05-01

Reproductive success of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) maintained ex situ is poor. As part of an effort to identify potential causes of poor reproductive success in a captive colony, we used non-invasive endocrine monitoring to assess gonadal and adrenal steroids of bird pairs with various reproductive outcomes and evaluated the relationships of hormones and behaviors to reproductive performance. Overall, reproductively successful (i.e., egg laying) females had significantly higher mean estrogen levels but lower mean progestogen concentrations than did unsuccessful females. Other hormones, including glucocorticoids and androgens, were not significantly different between successful and unsuccessful individuals. Observations of specific behaviors such as unison calling, marching, and the number of copulation attempts, along with overall time spent performing reproductive behaviors, were significantly higher in successful pairs. Our findings indicate that overall reproductive performance of whooping crane pairs is linked to female gonadal hormone excretion and reproductive behaviors, but not to altered adrenal hormone production. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Reproductive traits of tropical deep-water pandalid shrimps ( Heterocarpus ensifer) from the SW Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones-Fourzán, Patricia; Barradas-Ortíz, Cecilia; Negrete-Soto, Fernando; Lozano-Álvarez, Enrique

2010-08-01

Heterocarpus ensifer is a tropical deep-water pandalid shrimp whose reproductive features are poorly known. We examined reproductive traits of a population of H. ensifer inhabiting the continental slope (311-715 m in depth) off the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (SW Gulf of Mexico). Size range of the total sample ( n=816) was 10.4-38.9 mm carapace length. Females grow larger than males, but both sexes mature at 57% of their maximum theoretical size and at ˜30% of their total lifespan. Among adult females, the proportion of ovigerous females was high in all seasons, indicating year-round reproduction. Most females carrying embryos in advanced stages of development had ovaries in advanced stages of maturation, indicating production of successive spawns. In the autumn, however, the proportion of ovigerous females and the condition index of these females were lower compared to other seasons. This pattern potentially reflects a reduction in food resources following the summer minimum in particulate organic carbon flux to the deep benthos, as reported in previous studies. Spawns consisting of large numbers (16024±5644, mean±SD) of small eggs (0.045±0.009 mm 3) are consistent with extended planktotrophic larval development, an uncommon feature in deep-water carideans. Egg number increased as a power function of female size but with substantial variability, and egg size varied widely within and between females. There was no apparent trade-off between egg number and egg size and neither of these two variables was influenced by female condition. These results indicate iteroparity and a high and variable reproductive effort, reflecting a reproductive strategy developed to compensate for high larval mortality. The present study provides a baseline to compare reproductive traits between Atlantic populations of this tropical deep-water pandalid.

Development and validation of an OECD reproductive toxicity test guideline with the mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Mollusca, Gastropoda).

PubMed

Ruppert, Katharina; Geiß, Cornelia; Askem, Clare; Benstead, Rachel; Brown, Rebecca; Coke, Maira; Ducrot, Virginie; Egeler, Philipp; Holbech, Henrik; Hutchinson, Thomas H; Kinnberg, Karin L; Lagadic, Laurent; Le Page, Gareth; Macken, Ailbhe; Matthiessen, Peter; Ostermann, Sina; Schimera, Agnes; Schmitt, Claudia; Seeland-Fremer, Anne; Smith, Andy J; Weltje, Lennart; Oehlmann, Jörg

2017-08-01

Mollusks are known to be uniquely sensitive to a number of reproductive toxicants including some vertebrate endocrine disrupting chemicals. However, they have widely been ignored in environmental risk assessment procedures for chemicals. This study describes the validation of the Potamopyrgus antipodarum reproduction test within the OECD Conceptual Framework for Endocrine Disrupters Testing and Assessment. The number of embryos in the brood pouch and adult mortality serve as main endpoints. The experiments are conducted as static systems in beakers filled with artificial medium, which is aerated trough glass pipettes. The test chemical is dispersed into the medium, and adult snails are subsequently introduced into the beakers. After 28 days the reproductive success is determined by opening the brood pouch and embryo counting. This study presents the results of two validation studies of the reproduction test with eleven laboratories and the chemicals tributyltin (TBT) with nominal concentrations ranging from 10 to 1000 ng TBT-Sn/L and cadmium with concentrations from 1.56 to 25 μg/L. The test design could be implemented by all laboratories resulting in comparable effect concentrations for the endpoint number of embryos in the brood pouch. After TBT exposure mean EC 10 , EC 50 , NOEC and LOEC were 35.6, 127, 39.2 and 75.7 ng Sn/L, respectively. Mean effect concentrations in cadmium exposed snails were, respectively, 6.53, 14.2, 6.45 and 12.6 μg/L. The effect concentrations are in good accordance with already published data. Both validation studies show that the reproduction test with P. antipodarum is a well-suited tool to assess reproductive effects of chemicals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical and Physical Defense Traits in Two Sexual Forms of Opuntia robusta in Central Eastern Mexico

PubMed Central

Janczur, Mariusz Krzysztof; León Solano, Héctor Javier; Solache Rámos, Lupita Tzenyatze; Mendoza Reyes, Citlalli Hypatia; Oro Cerro, María del Carmen; Mariezcurrena Berasain, María Dolores; Rivas Manzano, Irma Victoria; Manjarrez, Javier; Villareal Benitez, José Luis; Czarnoleski, Marcin

2014-01-01

Sexually dimorphic plants provide an excellent opportunity for examining the differences in the extent of their defense against herbivores because they exhibit sex-related differences in reproductive investment. Such differences enable comparison of the sex with high reproduction expenses with the sex that expends less. The more costly sex is usually also better defended against herbivores. Generally, females are considered more valuable than hermaphrodites in terms of fitness; however, hermaphrodites are more valuable if they can produce seed by autonomous selfing, provided that the inbreeding depression is low and pollen is limited. We studied a gynodioecious population of Opuntia robusta from Central-Eastern Mexico, which has been reported to be trioecious, dioecious, or hermaphrodite, and addressed the following questions: 1) Is the hermaphrodite's reproductive output higher than the female's, and are hermaphrodites thus better defended? 2) Are plant tissues differentially defended? 3) Do trade-offs exist among different physical defense traits? and 4) among physical and chemical defense traits? We found that 1) hermaphrodites had a higher seed output and more spines per areola than females and that their spines contained less moisture. Non-reproductive hermaphrodite cladodes contained more total phenolic compounds (TPCs) than female ones. In addition, 2) hermaphrodite reproductive cladodes bore more spines than female cladodes, and 3) and 4) we found a negative relationship between spine number per areola and areola number per cladode and a positive relationship between spine number per areola per plant and TPC concentration per plant. Non-reproductive hermaphrodite cladodes contained a higher concentration of TPCs than female cladodes, and parental cladodes contained fewer TPCs than both reproductive and empty cladodes. PMID:24599143

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

2018-06-01

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Reproductive Risk Factors and Coronary Heart Disease in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study

PubMed Central

Parikh, Nisha I.; Jeppson, Rebecca P.; Berger, Jeffrey S.; Eaton, Charles B.; Kroenke, Candyce H.; LeBlanc, Erin S.; Lewis, Cora E.; Loucks, Eric B.; Parker, Donna R.; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Ryckman, Kelli K; Waring, Molly E.; Schenken, Robert S.; Johnson, Karen C; Edstedt-Bonamy, Anna-Karin; Allison, Matthew A.; Howard, Barbara V.

2016-01-01

Background Reproductive factors provide an early window into a woman’s coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, however their contribution to CHD risk stratification is uncertain. Methods and Results In the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study, we constructed Cox proportional hazards models for CHD including age, pregnancy status, number of live births, age at menarche, menstrual irregularity, age at first birth, stillbirths, miscarriages, infertility ≥ 1 year, infertility cause, and breastfeeding. We next added each candidate reproductive factor to an established CHD risk factor model. A final model was then constructed with significant reproductive factors added to established CHD risk factors. Improvement in C-statistic, net reclassification index (or NRI with risk categories of <5%, 5–<10%, and ≥10% 10-year risk of CHD) and integrated discriminatory index (IDI) were assessed. Among 72,982 women [n=4607 CHD events, median follow-up=12.0 (IQR=8.3–13.7) years, mean (SD) age 63.2 (7.2) years], an age-adjusted reproductive risk factor model had a C-statistic of 0.675 for CHD. In a model adjusted for established CHD risk factors, younger age at first birth, number of still births, number of miscarriages and lack of breastfeeding were positively associated with CHD. Reproductive factors modestly improved model discrimination (C-statistic increased from 0.726 to 0.730; IDI=0.0013, p-value < 0.0001). Net reclassification for women with events was not improved (NRI events=0.007, p-value=0.18); and for women without events was marginally improved (NRI non-events=0.002, p-value=0.04) Conclusions Key reproductive factors are associated with CHD independently of established CHD risk factors, very modestly improve model discrimination and do not materially improve net reclassification. PMID:27143682

Causes and consequences of unequal seedling production in forest trees: a case study in red oaks

Treesearch

Emily V. Moran; James S. Clark

2012-01-01

Inequality in reproductive success has important implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but lifetime reproductive success is challenging to measure in long-lived species such as forest trees. While seed production is often used as a proxy for overall reproductive success, high mortality of seeds and the potential for trade-offs between seed number and...

Reproduction 12 years after seed-tree harvest cutting in Appalachian hardwoods

Treesearch

H. Clay Smith; Robert L. Rosier; K. P. Hammack

1976-01-01

Woody reproduction 12 years after a seed-tree harvest cutting was evaluated for three central Appalachian hardwood sites in West Virginia, including species composition; size, number, and distribution; stem quality; effects of early cultural treatments; and influence of grapevines. Reproduction ranged from 1,250 to 1,700 stems per acre in the 1.0 to 4.9 inch dbh size...

Releasing red oak reproduction using a growing season application of Oust

Treesearch

Jamie L. Schuler; John Stephens

2010-01-01

In most cases, newly harvested upland oak stands contain sufficient numbers of red oak stems to form a fully stocked oak stand in the future. Unfortunately, many stands will not reach full stocking of oak due to intense competition from other non-oak reproduction. There are few feasible options to release established oak reproduction from other broadleaf woody or non-...

Local density regulates migratory songbird reproductive success through effects on double-brooding and nest predation.

PubMed

Woodworth, Bradley K; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T; Newman, Amy E M; Norris, D Ryan

2017-08-01

Knowledge of the density-dependent processes that regulate animal populations is key to understanding, predicting, and conserving populations. In migratory birds, density-dependence is most often studied during the breeding season, yet we still lack a robust understanding of the reproductive traits through which density influences individual reproductive success. We used 27-yr of detailed, individual-level productivity data from an island-breeding population of Savannah sparrows Passerculus sandwichensis to evaluate effects of local and total annual population density on female reproductive success. Local density (number of neighbors within 50 m of a female's nest) had stronger effects on the number of young fledged than did total annual population density. Females nesting in areas of high local density were more likely to suffer nest predation and less likely to initiate and fledge a second clutch, which led to fewer young fledged in a season. Fledging fewer young subsequently decreased the likelihood of a female recruiting offspring into the breeding population in a subsequent year. Collectively, these results provide insight into the scale and reproductive mechanisms mediating density-dependent reproductive success and fitness in songbirds. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Reproduction and monogamy in captive flock of greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus Roseus).

PubMed

Sandri, Camillo; Sammarini, Carolina; Regaiolli, Barbara; Spiezio, Caterina; Piccirillo, Alessandra

2018-01-01

Due to the great number of greater flamingos in captivity and their long life span, studying their behavior and welfare might be useful to improve the husbandry and breeding of this species in zoos. This study aimed to investigate factors affecting the breeding activity of captive greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus) from 2012 to 2016. To estimate reproductive success, the number of pairs, eggs laid, and hatchlings were recorded. In addition, information on age, egg-laying history of the partners, and pair composition was collected. An increase in the number of pairs, eggs, and hatchlings was reported over the years. For each breeding season, there were pairs who laid more than once, especially in 2014 and 2015. Approximately 50% of pairs were monogamous between consecutive years; however, the percentage dropped gradually when comparing nonconsecutive years. Senescence and previous experience seemed to affect the reproductive success of the study flamingos. In conclusion, different factors can influence the reproduction of greater flamingos in zoos. All these factors are related to nonhuman animal welfare and need to be considered in developing and improving management practices.

Theoretical models of the influence of genomic architecture on the dynamics of speciation.

PubMed

Flaxman, Samuel M; Wacholder, Aaron C; Feder, Jeffrey L; Nosil, Patrik

2014-08-01

A long-standing problem in evolutionary biology has been determining whether and how gradual, incremental changes at the gene level can account for rapid speciation and bursts of adaptive radiation. Using genome-scale computer simulations, we extend previous theory showing how gradual adaptive change can generate nonlinear population transitions, resulting in the rapid formation of new, reproductively isolated species. We show that these transitions occur via a mechanism rooted in a basic property of biological heredity: the organization of genes in genomes. Genomic organization of genes facilitates two processes: (i) the build-up of statistical associations among large numbers of genes and (ii) the action of divergent selection on persistent combinations of alleles. When a population has accumulated a critical amount of standing, divergently selected variation, the combination of these two processes allows many mutations of small effect to act synergistically and precipitously split one population into two discontinuous, reproductively isolated groups. Periods of allopatry, chromosomal linkage among loci, and large-effect alleles can facilitate this process under some conditions, but are not required for it. Our results complement and extend existing theory on alternative stable states during population divergence, distinct phases of speciation and the rapid emergence of multilocus barriers to gene flow. The results are thus a step towards aligning population genomic theory with modern empirical studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals: An Endocrine Society Scientific Statement

PubMed Central

Diamanti-Kandarakis, Evanthia; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre; Giudice, Linda C.; Hauser, Russ; Prins, Gail S.; Soto, Ana M.; Zoeller, R. Thomas; Gore, Andrea C.

2009-01-01

There is growing interest in the possible health threat posed by endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), which are substances in our environment, food, and consumer products that interfere with hormone biosynthesis, metabolism, or action resulting in a deviation from normal homeostatic control or reproduction. In this first Scientific Statement of The Endocrine Society, we present the evidence that endocrine disruptors have effects on male and female reproduction, breast development and cancer, prostate cancer, neuroendocrinology, thyroid, metabolism and obesity, and cardiovascular endocrinology. Results from animal models, human clinical observations, and epidemiological studies converge to implicate EDCs as a significant concern to public health. The mechanisms of EDCs involve divergent pathways including (but not limited to) estrogenic, antiandrogenic, thyroid, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ, retinoid, and actions through other nuclear receptors; steroidogenic enzymes; neurotransmitter receptors and systems; and many other pathways that are highly conserved in wildlife and humans, and which can be modeled in laboratory in vitro and in vivo models. Furthermore, EDCs represent a broad class of molecules such as organochlorinated pesticides and industrial chemicals, plastics and plasticizers, fuels, and many other chemicals that are present in the environment or are in widespread use. We make a number of recommendations to increase understanding of effects of EDCs, including enhancing increased basic and clinical research, invoking the precautionary principle, and advocating involvement of individual and scientific society stakeholders in communicating and implementing changes in public policy and awareness. PMID:19502515

Invasion and Persistence of Infectious Agents in Fragmented Host Populations

PubMed Central

Jesse, Marieke; Mazzucco, Rupert; Dieckmann, Ulf; Heesterbeek, Hans; Metz, Johan A. J.

2011-01-01

One of the important questions in understanding infectious diseases and their prevention and control is how infectious agents can invade and become endemic in a host population. A ubiquitous feature of natural populations is that they are spatially fragmented, resulting in relatively homogeneous local populations inhabiting patches connected by the migration of hosts. Such fragmented population structures are studied extensively with metapopulation models. Being able to define and calculate an indicator for the success of invasion and persistence of an infectious agent is essential for obtaining general qualitative insights into infection dynamics, for the comparison of prevention and control scenarios, and for quantitative insights into specific systems. For homogeneous populations, the basic reproduction ratio plays this role. For metapopulations, defining such an ‘invasion indicator’ is not straightforward. Some indicators have been defined for specific situations, e.g., the household reproduction number . However, these existing indicators often fail to account for host demography and especially host migration. Here we show how to calculate a more broadly applicable indicator for the invasion and persistence of infectious agents in a host metapopulation of equally connected patches, for a wide range of possible epidemiological models. A strong feature of our method is that it explicitly accounts for host demography and host migration. Using a simple compartmental system as an example, we illustrate how can be calculated and expressed in terms of the key determinants of epidemiological dynamics. PMID:21980339

Dynamics of an HIV-1 infection model with cell mediated immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Pei; Huang, Jianing; Jiang, Jiao

2014-10-01

In this paper, we study the dynamics of an improved mathematical model on HIV-1 virus with cell mediated immunity. This new 5-dimensional model is based on the combination of a basic 3-dimensional HIV-1 model and a 4-dimensional immunity response model, which more realistically describes dynamics between the uninfected cells, infected cells, virus, the CTL response cells and CTL effector cells. Our 5-dimensional model may be reduced to the 4-dimensional model by applying a quasi-steady state assumption on the variable of virus. However, it is shown in this paper that virus is necessary to be involved in the modeling, and that a quasi-steady state assumption should be applied carefully, which may miss some important dynamical behavior of the system. Detailed bifurcation analysis is given to show that the system has three equilibrium solutions, namely the infection-free equilibrium, the infectious equilibrium without CTL, and the infectious equilibrium with CTL, and a series of bifurcations including two transcritical bifurcations and one or two possible Hopf bifurcations occur from these three equilibria as the basic reproduction number is varied. The mathematical methods applied in this paper include characteristic equations, Routh-Hurwitz condition, fluctuation lemma, Lyapunov function and computation of normal forms. Numerical simulation is also presented to demonstrate the applicability of the theoretical predictions.

Influence of light and plant size on the reproduction and growth of small palm tree species: Comparing two methods for measuring canopy openness.

PubMed

Amadeu, Luã S N; Sampaio, Mauricio B; Dos Santos, Flavio A M

2016-09-01

The reproduction and growth of large palms are influenced by many factors, including light and plant size, but few studies have examined smaller species (up to 2 m tall). We examined the effect of incident light and individual size on growth rates, the probability of reproduction, and the number of inflorescences of three small palm species and compared two methods for estimating canopy openness. We measured canopy openness above the crowns of 132 adult plants and in the centers of 72 subplots (10 × 10 m) where individuals were sampled. We also recorded individual size and the number of leaves and inflorescences produced in two years. Reproductive individuals of Butia paraguayensis tend to occur in illuminated microhabitats. Reproduction of Acrocomia emensis was correlated with stem diameter, but not with light. Reproduction was inversely related to individual size and light in Syagrus petraea, probably because this clonal palm invests heavily in sexual reproduction during its younger stages and clonal activity in older stages and may be adapted to the low-light conditions of the woodland understory. Growth was not predicted by light or individual size. Stronger correlations were found when incident light was measured directly above the crown, as opposed to the subplot center. The influences of light on reproduction are dependent on plant life histories, even among related and sympatric species. Light measurements directly above individual crowns provide better understanding of the reproductive effort rather than in subplot center. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Brood size manipulations in a spatially and temporally varying environment: male Tengmalm's owls pass increased reproductive costs to offspring.

PubMed

Thomson, Robert L; Griesser, Michael; Laaksonen, Toni; Korpimäki, Erkki

2014-10-01

A key tool used to assess reproductive trade-offs in birds is brood size manipulation (BSM) experiments. Most BSM studies have examined the influence on short-term measures of reproductive output. Seldom evaluated are the effects on long-term fitness proxies under temporally or spatially varying environments. Unpredictable environments may affect reproductive trade-offs by altering the value of the brood or hampering optimization of reproductive effort. We reduced or enlarged broods of 140 male Tengmalm's owls Aegolius funereus by one chick during their first lifetime reproductive event. Males differed in age and bred in environments that varied in quality spatially (habitat structure) and temporally (abundance of main food). We measured the short-term (nestling number and condition) and long-term fitness proxies (survival, lifetime fledgling and recruits produced) until all experimental males disappeared from the population. BSMs did not affect fledgling number or condition, but in enlarged broods, offspring condition was lower in territories with a high proportion of agricultural fields. Importantly, no obvious impacts on long-term fitness proxies emerged; lifetime fledgling and recruit production of males did not differ between the BSM treatments. Thus, the primary caregiver (i.e. Tengmalm's owl males) passed increased reproductive costs to their offspring, which is in agreement with other studies investigating intergenerational reproductive trade-offs in species of intermediate lifespan. Reluctance to accept increased current reproductive costs in these systems highlights the potential for sexual conflict in bi-parental care systems in which one of the pair is the primary caregiver.

A Socratic Method for Surveying Students' Readiness to Study Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stansfield, William D.

2013-01-01

Before beginning a series of presentations on evolution, it would be prudent to survey the general level of students' understanding of prerequisite basic concepts of reproduction, heredity, ontology, and phenotypic diversity so that teachers can avoid devoting time to well-known subjects of general knowledge and can spend more time on subjects…

31 CFR 538.523 - Commercial sales, exportation, and reexportation of agricultural commodities, medicine, and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... drinking water) or animals (including animal feeds); (B) Seeds for food crops; (C) Fertilizers or organic fertilizers; or (D) Reproductive materials (such as live animals, fertilized eggs, embryos, and semen) for the... fertilizers, live horses, western red cedar, and medical devices other than basic medical supplies, such as...

Diversity in Pathways to Parenthood: Patterns, Implications, and Emerging Research Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smock, Pamela J.; Greenland, Fiona Rose

2010-01-01

This review examines and synthesizes recent research on pathways to parenthood. We begin by providing basic information about patterns, differentials, and trends and discussing adoption and new reproductive technologies. We next turn to several areas of inquiry that became particularly prominent in the last decade: the continued "decoupling" of…

New Horizons: An Empowerment Program for Egyptian Adolescent Girls.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, Julie Hanson

New Horizons is a nonschool program that demystifies and communicates essential information on basic life skills and reproductive health to Egyptian girls and young women aged 9-20. The program consists of 100 hour-long sessions, each including an introduction to a specific topic, review of group knowledge level, discussion around key points…

"Nice guys finish last": influence of mate choice on reproductive success in Long-Evans rats.

PubMed

Winland, C; Bolton, J L; Ford, B; Jampana, S; Tinker, J; Frohardt, R J; Guarraci, F A; Zewail-Foote, M

2012-02-01

The present study was designed to determine if male physiology and male reproductive behavior predict reproductive success in Long-Evans rats. Mating behavior was observed in sexually naïve, naturally cycling female rats during behavioral estrous that were given the opportunity to mate with two males simultaneously. DNA analysis of offspring born following these mating encounters was used to identify the paternity of each pup. In order to assess the effect of mate choice during these mating encounters on reproductive success, one male rat in each pair was categorized as the preferred mate if the female spent more time (>50%) with him during the mating test of the present study. Furthermore, each male in the pairs was categorized as "attractive" or "non-attractive" by computing the number of females that preferred each male across many mating tests. Similar to results reported in Lovell et al. (2007), during 76% of these mating tests the same male rat in each pair was preferred by different female rats. Overall attractiveness of individual male rats predicted reproductive success in the present study. Interestingly, "attractive" males sired significantly FEWER pups than "non-attractive" males. Neither behavioral (e.g., latency to first sexual stimulation, number of sexual stimulations) nor physiological measures (e.g., body weight, urinary testosterone levels) of male rats predicted their reproductive success. In conclusion, the present results indicate that certain features of some males are more attractive to females, but attractive males are at a reproductive disadvantage (as measured by the number of pups sired). Although basal urinary testosterone levels did not differ between males that sired the majority of pups in a litter and males that sired few or none of the pups in a litter, aggression and/or other physiological measures of fertility (e.g., penile reflexes) may differ between males that are attractive to females and those that have a reproductive advantage. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reproductive technologies and the quality of offspring in Asia: reproductive pioneering and moral pragmatism?

PubMed

Sleeboom-Faulkner, Margaret

2010-02-01

This paper highlights a number of theoretical issues relevant to this special issue of Culture, Health & Sexuality on the quality of offspring, including gender selection, ecofeminism, eugenics, reproductive agency, moral pioneering and reproductive pragmatism in China, India and Japan. First, it discusses various approaches to choice in sex selection, focusing on an instrumentalist and an ecofeminist approach. Second, it discusses issues of reproductive choice in the light of various concepts of eugenics and power, which have been used to characterise the relationship between the state, the individual and prenatal genetic testing. Third, it queries Foucault's notion of biopower in relation to reproductive agency. In reviewing the evidence, the chapter raises questions about how women and parents in Asian societies can be understood in terms of 'reproductive pragmatism', 'empowerment' and/or 'moral pioneering' when faced with the use of new reproductive technologies in modern societies.

Role of leptin in female reproduction.

PubMed

Pérez-Pérez, Antonio; Sánchez-Jiménez, Flora; Maymó, Julieta; Dueñas, José L; Varone, Cecilia; Sánchez-Margalet, Víctor

2015-01-01

Reproductive function is dependent on energy resources. The role of weight, body composition, fat distribution and the effect of diet have been largely investigated in experimental female animals as well as in women. Any alteration in diet and/or weight may induce abnormalities in timing of sexual maturation and fertility. However, the cellular mechanisms involved in the fine coordination of energy balance and reproduction are largely unknown. The brain and hypothalamic structures receive endocrine and/or metabolic signals providing information on the nutritional status and the degree of fat stores. Adipose tissue acts both as a store of energy and as an active endocrine organ, secreting a large number of biologically important molecules termed adipokines. Adipokines have been shown to be involved in regulation of the reproductive functions. The first adipokine described was leptin. Extensive research over the last 10 years has shown that leptin is not only an adipose tissue-derived messenger of the amount of energy stores to the brain, but also a crucial hormone/cytokine for a number of diverse physiological processes, such as inflammation, angiogenesis, hematopoiesis, immune function, and most importantly, reproduction. Leptin plays an integral role in the normal physiology of the reproductive system with complex interactions at all levels of the hypothalamic-pituitary gonadal (HPG) axis. In addition, leptin is also produced by placenta, where it plays an important autocrine function. Observational studies have demonstrated that states of leptin excess, deficiency, or resistance can be associated with abnormal reproductive function. This review focuses on the leptin action in female reproduction.

Distribution of spermatozoa and embryos in the female reproductive tract after unilateral deep intra uterine insemination in the pig.

PubMed

Tummaruk, P; Sumransap, P; Techakumphu, M; Kunavongkrit, A

2007-12-01

The present study was performed to investigate the number of either the spermatozoa or the embryos in the reproductive tracts of sows after unilateral, deep, intra uterine insemination (DIUI). Two experiments were conducted, 10 sows were used in experiment I and eight sows were used in experiment II. Transrectal ultrasonography was used to examine the time when ovulation took place in relation to oestrus behaviour. The sows were inseminated with a single dose of diluted fresh semen 6-8 h prior to expected ovulation, during the second oestrus after weaning. In experimental I, five sows were inseminated by a conventional artificial insemination (AI) technique using 100 ml of diluted fresh semen, containing 3000 x 10(6) motile spermatozoa and five sows were inseminated by the DIUI technique with 5 ml of diluted fresh semen, containing 150 x 10(6) motile spermatozoa. The sows were anesthetized and ovario-hysterectomized approximately 24 h after insemination. The oviducts and the uterine horns on each side of the reproductive tracts were divided into seven segments, namely ampulla, cranial isthmus, caudal isthmus, utero-tubal junction (UTJ), cranial uterine horn, middle uterine horn and caudal uterine horn. Each segment of the reproductive tracts was flushed with Beltsville thawing solution (BTS) through the lumen. The total number of spermatozoa in the flushing from each segment were determined. In experimental II, eight sows were inseminated by the DIUI technique using 5.0 ml diluted fresh semen containing 150 x 10(6) motile spermatozoa. The sows were anesthetized 61.1 +/- 12 h after insemination (48-72 h) and the embryos were flushed from the oviduct through the proximal part of the uterine horn. It was revealed that, in experimental I, the spermatozoa were recovered from both sides of the reproductive tract in the AI-group, and from unilateral side of the reproductive tract in the DIUI-group (three sows from the left and two sows from the right sides). The number of spermatozoa recovered from the reproductive tracts was higher in the AI- than the DIUI-group (p < 0.001). In experiment II, fertilization occurred in five of eight sows (62.5%) after DIUI. The number of ova that ovulated were 16.4 +/- 2.6 per sow and the embryos numbering 11.4 +/- 2.3 per sow were recovered from both sides of the reproductive tract. In conclusion, the spermatozoa given by DIUI could be recovered from only one side of the reproductive tract of sows at approximately 24 h after DIUI via the flushing technique. However, embryos were found in both sides of the oviducts and the proximal part of the uterine horns 48-72 h after insemination, indicating that the fertilization occurred in both sides of the oviducts.

Basic PK/PD principles of drug effects in circular/proliferative systems for disease modelling.

PubMed

Jacqmin, Philippe; McFadyen, Lynn; Wade, Janet R

2010-04-01

Disease progression modelling can provide information about the time course and outcome of pharmacological intervention on the disease. The basic PK/PD principles of proliferative and circular systems within the context of modelling disease progression and the effect of treatment thereupon are illustrated with the goal to better understand/predict eventual clinical outcome. Circular/proliferative systems can be very complex. To facilitate the understanding of how a dosing regimen can be defined in such systems we have shown the derivation of a system parameter named the Reproduction Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (RMIC) which represents the critical concentration at which the system switches from growth to extinction. The RMIC depends on two parameters (RMIC = (R(0) - 1) x IC(50)): the basic reproductive ratio (R(0)) a fundamental parameter of the circular/proliferative system that represents the number of offspring produced by one replicating species during its lifespan, and the IC(50), the potency of the drug to inhibit the proliferation of the system. The RMIC is constant for a given system and a given drug and represents the lowest concentration that needs to be achieved for eradication of the system. When exposure is higher than the RMIC, success can be expected in the long term. Time varying inhibition of replicating species proliferation is a natural consequence of the time varying inhibitor drug concentrations and when combined with the dynamics of the circular/proliferative system makes it difficult to predict the eventual outcome. Time varying inhibition of proliferative/circular systems can be handled by calculating the equivalent effective constant concentration (ECC), the constant plasma concentration that would give rise to the average inhibition at steady state. When ECC is higher than the RMIC, eradication of the system can be expected. In addition, it is shown that scenarios that have the same steady state ECC whatever the dose, dosage schedule or PK parameters have also the same average R (0) in the presence of the inhibitor (i.e. R (0-INH)) and therefore lead to the same outcome. This allows predicting equivalent active doses and dosing schedules in circular and proliferative systems when the IC(50) and pharmacokinetic characteristics of the drugs are known. The results from the simulations performed demonstrate that, for a given system (defined by its RMIC), treatment success depends mainly on the pharmacokinetic characteristics of the drug and the dosing schedule.

[For a sexual health free from violence].

PubMed

1995-12-01

The United Nations has conducted world conferences on development and people. The conference in Cairo on development and population produced a Plan of Action, and the one in Beijing on women produced a Platform of Action, that obligate all in the public and private sectors to execute new programs in the area of sexual and reproductive health. These documents were adopted by consensus and explain such basic concepts as equality; policies sensitive to gender; violence against women and its implications; the relationship between development, population, the environment, and women; and the new sexual and reproductive rights. These platforms and action plans help Profamilia to complete its programs for men, women, and youth. In this spirit Profamilia has realized a series of efforts to internalize a respect for liberty and equality for women and to understand reproductive responsibilities for both sexes. The new secretary general of the International Federation of Planned Parenthood declared in Beijing that as long as there are women who lack the freedom to exercise their reproductive options and continue to suffer and die from unwanted pregnancy the global nongovernmental organizations must work assiduously to reinforce their solidarity with these women to make a difference. The Colombian population awaits public policies that achieve sexual and reproductive health free of coercion, discrimination, and violence.